And March was supposed to be such a good month.
Oh well, forget that. This is the faux spring market to be long remembered by those who believed their own media coverage. Canadian real estate’s in the tight grip of an unfolding correction which should have surprised no one. As the little poll we had fun with yesterday showed, the housing guys are in denial. They can’t believe this is happening.
(The head of Urbanation, Ben Myers, sent this furtive note to his contact list on Friday, pulling for votes: “I am getting crushed in this online poll on who is the most trusted expert on the Toronto real estate market, take a look and vote: click here.” It didn’t work.)
So what’s really going on? Pretty much what I told you to expect.
Sales are now falling in every major housing market. February year/year numbers sucked. The ones coming out of March will be worse. It must have killed CREA on Friday to announce a 15.8% gutting of real estate transactions nationally, while anyone who bought a house in the last two years had coffee coming out of their nose as they read the MSM headlines:
Realtors are now cutting their estimates (the third time) for 2013, while momentum turns negative. As this blog has chronicled since last summer, sales have tumbled since F dropped the mortgage bomb on July 9th, and coming off a market one year ago that was frothier than a beagle in heat. Leading the fall were Vancouver (of course), Winnipeg, Toronto and Vancouver. Some areas of the country (BC’s Fraser Valley or parts of the Okanagan) are experiencing sales crashes of 40% and price drops of 20%. This is the leading edge of our correction.
Of course the housing cartel’s working overtime at its usual disinformation. CREA says prices will decline this year by only 0.2%, while its Frankenumber actually rose 2.7% in February. Media everywhere have been told that while sales are down, prices are up more than 1% year/year – if you eliminate Vancouver. As dumbass a statement as that is, it’s useless info for those debating a home purchase, since values peaked last April and have been eroding since. It’s only a matter to weeks or months before they go negative. Include Vancouver, and they implode.
Most importantly, as I’ve said before, is an understanding that sales declines lead to price drops, often with a gap of many months between. In other words, anyone buying now is reaching for a falling knife.
By the way, here’s a handy little reminder, courtesy of Kevin over at Saskatoon Housing Bubble, of exactly what the national housing market looks like this weekend. In case you missed my point, it’s also a leading indicator of price changes in each of these communities.
On a more worrisome note, the real estate fantasy we’ve built for each other sits on a foundation of debt. Forget the untrue meme that borrowing is down, saving is up and mortgages are being repaid. It’s the opposite. Stats Can has just revealed household debt has hit a new record, despite F’s efforts to curtail bank lending. The debt-to-disposable-income ratio has crested at 165%,. In the last 90 days of 2012 alone we added $11,000,000,000 in new mortgage debt.
Canadians owe $1.1 trillion in home loans, and indebtedness is rising at five times the inflation rate. At the same time among our largest population group (the Boomers), 78% have houses, 70% have no pensions and 60% don’t have a hundred grand saved. God help us.
Finally, this week brought big news in BC, and a shameless public act.
House sales across the province have now cratered by 24% and prices already tumbled more than 8%. An irreplaceable mansion in Victoria just re-listed for 28% less. A leading Van realtor in the best of hoods is telling clients, “Declining market trends will almost certainly continue. The bottom line continues to be that prices are falling. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s Westside detached home HPI index is down over 10% from its high point last Spring. By end of summer I expect this to have fallen another 10%.”
And now the shame.
Amid this gathering real estate storm, the Vancouver Province this week published a full-page story headlined, “Real estate sales finally recovering.” It’s a fraud – marketing designed as news, false news, to support a mortgage ad.
Is there still doubt where we’re headed?
277 comments ↓
Garth a few weeks ago I voted for your blog (The Greater Fool) in the contest to pick Canada’s top financial blog for 2013. I did not vote for your blog because of your economic prognostications as I believe you are too bullish. I voted for your blog because you give the “little people” in Canada a great forum to discuss economic and financial matters and I would like to thank you for that.
I would have to agree with the following words which I heard spoken on a financial program on a Vancouver, B.C. radio station in December 2010.
“Way more money has been borrowed than will ever get repaid”
“Way more promises have been made by governments and so on than will ever be kept”
“There is just no way the debt build up everywhere in the western world is not going to have consequences”
The total government (federal, provincial and municipal), business and household debt in Canada is at a stratospheric level.
The following information is from a credit market summary data table on Statistics Canada’s web site:
The total debt outstanding in Canada at the end of December 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was $5.25 Trillion. From the end of December 2011 to the end of December 2012 the total debt outstanding in Canada increased by $269 Billion. For that 366 day period the total debt outstanding in Canada increased at a rate of $735 Million per day.
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122
With a total credit market debt of $5.25 Trillion and a gdp (at current prices) of $1.83 Trillion Canada’s total credit market debt is 2.86 times the size of our gdp.
Most people know all too well that the size of the hangover incurred the morning after is directly proportional to the amount of partying that went on the night before. The hangover that is coming to Canada and the rest of the so-called advanced economies of the world as a result of the debt-fueled party which has been going on for the last 40 years is going to be a doozy.
For the indebted, absolutely. For those who prepare and invest appropriately, no doozy. — Garth
CREA will do anything to manipulate the data. They attribute the sales volume decline to February having one business day less, but they never mentioned that January decline of 5.5% was buoyed by January having one extra business day compared to Jan 2012.
Sales are making a comeback…………Come back tomorrow….
Sir Garth : Concerning that chart, the Kitchener Waterloo index at only 10% down is really grasping. Sales are down way down. Agents nasty from lack of work! One super achiver delivered my pizza!! The time has come!!
You might consider returning to pictures of floozies. This one is uncomfortably close to something out of Fellini’s Circus. (Although I suppose that makes it a pretty decent illustration of your subject matter today.)
(Cameron) Muir’s estimate is that with sales down for such a long period, there are enough potential buyers who have put off decisions that there is what economists call “pent-up demand” building in the market and “it’s not a matter of if, but when home sales rise above their current pace.”
We will now enter the age of anecdote. Your friends, relatives, coworkers and any agents that have your email address will dribble out tales of properties that sold quickly, over asking, in multiples. It may not be different in Canada anymore, but everyone’s going to spend some months convincing themselves and each other it’s different in their neighbourhood or on their street. Because prices did’t go up as much, or quality holds its value, immigrants like the local mall, connoisseurs know that the dog poop doesn’t stink in this suburb, the new elementary school principal is hot, whatever.
Man, I coulda been a contender for furst if I’d just scrolled down instead of reading the article…
Wow… that’s quite an article. $1900 mortgage in a condo. $1200 is what he was paying in rent.
$700 + $300 in condo fees, $100 in taxes… $13,200 / year down the toilet.
Add that to the $20,000 in lost opportunity.
After 5 years, he’s out $66,000 + $20,000 in savings.
Will that condo be worth $500k in 5 years? In 10 years?
A further 20% drop would put it about $320k… from there, it would need to increase by 50% to break even… and this isn’t including ANY money earned on the $86000. %5 / year would add another 6k or so, I would think.
http://www.news1130.com/2013/03/15/former-pm-kim-campbell-suing-vancouver-developers-over-tardy-condo/
Kim Campbell wants her $368,000 deposit back.
Thanks goodness I sold last week and was fortunate to put all my RE bonus tax free profits into fancy coloured diamonds. A trusted source on the radio said they go up 20 – 40 % a year almost indefinitely.
My future is secure at last!
#224 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.15.13 at 4:55 pm
“I’ve calculated the SFH 3-month median price drop from peak for the central Okanagan (Kelowna) using omreb.com stats.
SFHs peaked in May 2008.
peak:
493 K
current:
402 K
(-18.5%)
Since September 2012, SFHs have declined in price from 435 K to 402 K (-8.3%) in 5 months.”
Thanks for the Static, I mean statistics from Kelowna
Here in Calgary we have a bit different situation: as for mid-March, inventory level is lower than the one in mid-March of 2012 and sales are way higher. Looks like it’s really different here…
At $1 a second it would take you 32,000 years to spend
$1 trillion.
The photo, dear God.
And I was just sitting down to enjoy a Friday dinner.
Yeesh.
From the daily real estate flyer in Regina…
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Regina+home+sales+February/8105933/story.html
of course the headline is talking about month over month sales. You have to read the article to see that year over year sales tanked.
And then there’s this one…
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Regina+housing+prices+January/8100011/story.html
Seeing that CREA is the ones saying that prices are up, everyone has to know at this point that any number they say is bogus.
“anyone who bought a house in the last two years.
told ya , price not going down to 08/09 level
Ahh credit unions: they’re like banks, but not federally regulated!
“I am surprised some great properties are getting overlooked. The buyers need to be open-minded about doing work to the property, flexible with requirements and not get emotionally attached.”
What mentality do you need to get in your head when loosing.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/one-word-to-describe-torontos-real-estate-market-it-starts-with-an-f/article9759374/
I take that back. Your increase @ 5% would be $14,000 after 5 years. 5% on $20,000 would be about $6,000.
So, that house would have to increase in value by $100,000 or 25% in 5 years. Not. Going. To. Happen.
Do you have any info for those of us on the east coast? I’m between houses now (sold on the high point) and need a new place asap. A new house costs $2000/mth to rent, or $380,000 to buy. Help!
Ya gotta give it to Myles. He put on his hipster outfit, cool hairdo and swagger on display for this infomercial story to convince the young and stupid house horny to buy a place.
I’m surprised there isn’t a link to his match/plentyoffish profile.
Garth- that must be you and one of your Amazons celebrating your win last night. I didn’t know that your ‘hummer’ is really a wheel chair.
How is it the CREA can continually lie about what is happening. I am not certain what upsets me more? The lying about the numbers or their thinking that we are stupid enough to believe what they are saying.
My mom is a Real Estate Agent here in Edmonton and she has said it is just dead, no action everyone is cautious, people she is workings with are getting out of them game. No real, specific reason is given. “It’s not like a few years place an ad in the paper and you all sorts of people calling”. Well what goes up must come down and always at an over correction. I want to buy but I do t want to throw away an extra $6000-$10000 a year for the title of home owner.
#16 Realtor # 1 on 03.15.13 at 9:36 pm
“….told ya , price not going down to 08/09 level…..”
======================
Stick around. This movie hasn’t quite finished the opening credits.
“In the category of ‘Most Incompetent Steward of a Country’s Finances’ the nominees are……..”
Garth, you’ve been very clear on where the real estate market is headed in Canada. What impact do you think this will have on Canadian equities and the TSX? Should investors be weary of banks stocks and bonds at the moment?
No more than usual. — Garth
#20 East Coast Girl – not enough info but $2000 a month to rent a house is not on the page, so find an apartment to park, and do not buy a home anywhere for several years, as a meltdown is coming.
Ah, Vancouver. How quickly we forget.
We moved to Vancouver from overseas in July 1979, bought our house within ten days (the market was heating up) – a fixer upper in the west end (Pt. Grey) for $105,000. Totally renovated (new heating, plumbing, electrical, some cosmetics) for $25,000.
By July of 1980 the market was on fire, prices were increasing weekly. There were no bidding wars (I think it was illegal at the time), but mortgage rates were in the area of 20-21%. We decided to get out, and tried to sell the house by ourselves: first week of August listed for 235,000, no bites. Second week advertised for $245, some phone calls, one showing. Realized sheeple would only believe agents’ pricing.
Got an agent who evaluated/listed it at $265,000. The house sold in 6 weeks for $254,000.
Here comes the good part: we gave a (first) VTB non transferable mortgage for $180,000 at 18% for one year, moved to Windsor and bought a bigger, newer, renovated house in the best neighbourhood for $125,000.
It gets better: The “investor” who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later (January, 1981), but the bubble had burst. He sold it just before his mortgage was due for $180,000. In one year, he lost $74,000 of his down payment plus the $26,000+ he paid us in mortgage payments, plus taxes, closing costs, agent fees for selling the property.
Not counting (I’m sure) what it cost him in nerves
But he who does not know history is doomed to repeat it’s mistakes.
As mentioned earlier, Beware the Ides of March. This could spread from Europe. Their lean, their mean, their.. http://femen.org/en/about
Uh Oh Canada on 03.14.13 at 11:06 pm
“Garth- you lost credibility when you predicted an interest rate hike two years ago that didn’t happen.”
This person is right about predicting dates. You don’t want to be the Jehovah’s Witness of the financial world. “Make due ’till 72. Stay alive till ’75”.
You could say “Save your green in 2013″ or ” Lamb and HAM go together like peanut buttter and jam.”
ON THE OTHER HAND…
Forgive me for testing the opposite theory.
Which is that… DEBT IS (OR CAN BE) GREAT for an economy
If a skilled farmer, just bought his own farm (formerly was a farm hand, let’s say) and now has no money left and so borrows to plant a crop, that is undoubtedly a good debt. Without debt he starves. With debt he can thrive and his lender can make money too.
Debt is how a monetary economy achieves sharing. The lender shares some surplus (or the surplus of the lenders depositors) but expects to be paid back.
Of course there is bad debt. Borrowing to fund a trip to Vegas is probably bad debt. New loans taken out by people who will not be able to make the payments is bad debt (figuratively, and, ultimately, literally).
Most debt is between the two extremes.
In a monetary economy a certain level of debt increases the average standard of living and perhaps even increases almost everyone’s standard of living. But at what point is the average debt too high?
Is it 1.65 times annual income? And does the acceptable debt to income ratio increase with lower interest rates? (One would think so).
What are the danger signals that identify too much debt? Defaults, bankruptcies and creditor arrangements are.
Are we seeing these danger signals? No not so much. Is it because it is so easy to borrow new money to pay old debts that no one need default? Possibly, although that suggests insanity on the part of lenders.
So the bottom line is I don’t know that we have a clear cut case that our 1.65 debt to annual income ratio is so bad.
What I’d also like to see are the deciles. Surely the bottom one or two deciles have debt to annual income ratios of zero. One shudders to think what it is for the top decile.
Keep in mind, approximately no one is truly precisely average (you know with 1.4 kids and that 1.65 times debt to annual income ratio). The vast majority of people will be nowhere close to this average, some are below, some above.
Has she sung?
I ask: what can us taxpayers do if borrowers backed by CMHC start to default in massive numbers? I sure as hell don’t want to pay for someone else’s folly. Its bad enough that we’ll have to pony up for our pensions, government overspending and perks given to corporate friends…
Seriously, how can we start a massive protest that will get the government to listen up and throw the irresponsibilities for lax lending practices right back in the bank’s face?
John
It was nice of Smoking man to forward to the blog the picture of last night’s girl from the bar. Well done.
if you eliminate Vancouver well you cannot eliminate Vancouver because it overwhelmingly dominates the BC market and likewise you cannot eliminate Toronto or Montreal.
This is the spring season, when year-over-year sales are down for March, April and May then people are going to be worried. They are going to be worried about a number – the outstanding mortgage balance. It’s a number that’s on every house, every townhouse and every condo.
God help us.
“What impact do you think this will have on Canadian equities and the TSX?”
I feel that equities are going to rise as people rotate out of housing as an asset class, and as banks cut back on lending and allow spreads on housing loans expand in response to decreasing credit-worthiness. Banks should do well. Countercyclical sectors should do well. The TSX is majorly undervalued and has solid earnings compared to its peers such as the Dow.
The TSX also did incredibly well in the 1990s when real estate dropped, for largely the same reasons. Banks mostly quadrupled their stock prices. I don’t think the tech sector will be the headline sector this time around, but the gold sector has an amazing amount of embedded earnings power and a product that is in an incredible amount of demand around the world.
“I ask: what can us taxpayers do if borrowers backed by CMHC start to default in massive numbers?”
Own bank stock and benefit from the fact that banks will be receiving 100 cents on the dollar for any defaults, and will be benefitting from higher spreads on lending.
And perhaps vote for politicians that aren’t so darn foolish.
Love to check back in with Myles in three years. Find out how “build[ing] equity” is going. How DOES that work if property values are declining!???
WHY DO HOUSES COST SO MUCH in CANADA?
Absent unusual conditions like a credit crisis, or a severe shortage of building lots, the cost of new home should equate to the cost to buy the lot and to build the home plus a normal profit margin for the builder.
And the cost of new houses affects the selling price of existing houses.
So why do new houses (and therefore all houses) cost so much in Canada?
Part of the cost of building lots in Canada is the high cost of installing roads, sewers, water, gas and electricity. But why have those costs sky-rocketed? Is there a lack of competition involved?
A house is a site-built manufactured good. The costs of many manufactured goods have declined over the decades even while increasing in quality. (Refrigerators, toasters, washing machines, televisions and cars. I think you will find there has been little or no increase for a basic model of these manufactured goods in the past 20 years or more in Canada).
So what barriers have prevented the costs of site-built houses from declining? In part it is because we insisted on larger houses with more bathrooms and with granite, hardwood and stainless steel. In part it may be rising labor costs. (Then again think of the advances in carpentry tools over the last 20 years in terms of air nailers and better electric saws and well, honestly I am not too familiar with this but I suspect the tools have gotten better). Perhaps the cost (excluding land) to build a very basic house of the size that was built 30 years ago and without the granite and hardwood and other extras has not changed much? Somehow I suspect it has gone up a lot. Why is that?
Are lumber prices that much higher? Have window and siding and roofing and appliance and fixture manufacturers not been busily getting more efficient? I know some of these manufacturers have indeed become very efficient. I believe you can buy a basic toilet for less than $100. That impresses me.
So really just what are all the things that cause the cost to buy a building lot and construct a house in Canada to have risen seemingly much much faster than inflation? Where is the productivity? Where are the competitive forces driving prices down?
Are some companies in the supply chain making out like bandits? (If so give me names and more importantly stock tickers)
Can anyone enlighten me?
“More bounce to the ounce”:
Smoking Man roots:
1.5 Million people in boundary area and 15 last names.
Jebus Christ, I just heard Amanda Lang say “If you strip out Vancouver…”
Did they strip out Vancouver when the prices were going up?
#1 george on 03.15.13 at 8:46 pm
—————————————–
Absolute numbers fear-monger, while numbers per capita actually says something.
Indebtedness of 1.65 for every 1 (net) earned is an example…there are many boomers that aren’t in debt, or that carry much less debt than 1.65 to 1. But then there are people like me, only starting out on my earnings path, that carry total household debt of 4.5 to 1.
Such is life…the young have the debt, the old have the assets. The average says something, but really the focus should be on who carries the bulk of the debt, and the chance of their success at paying it back.
ROFLMAO:
6 PM News today
Stock Market has big ” Free Willy”
ahahahaha
$uckers….do the Darwin Shmuck Award
Poor Myles won’t have much spare change for the homeless people on East Cordova, but at least his 700 square foot box will be mortgage free when he is 56 years old
#34 45north on 03.15.13 at 10:19 pm
———————————————-
On the way up the headlines read ‘Canadian real estate rocking’….on the way down it’s full of qualifiers “Canadian real estate flat in the top 3 markets if you exclude the 2nd highest”.
Imagine if the headlines on the way up read:
“Real estate rocking in Vancouver and Toronto, but the rest of the country is flat. Be careful.”
#37 Shawn Allen on 03.15.13 at 10:34 pm
———————————————-
I think if you add in realistic land cost, labour cost and cost of supplies, you’re at least looking at $200/sqft to build a decent house.
Therefore, there are a lot of markets in Canada that might actually be realistically priced, while condos in Toronto are insane. …
Such is life…the young have the debt, the old have the assets. The average says something, but really the focus should be on who carries the bulk of the debt, and the chance of their success at paying it back.
And if they can’t pay it back, then guess who gets to suffer? The old people who have their accounts loaded up with GICs, bonds, and other similar investments that will be devalued and/or taxed into oblivion to ‘square’ things up.
I’d be sh*ttin my pants if I was a boomer with 70-90% of my assets in GICs, cash, and real estate. I keep trying to tell family members in this position that they’re walking right into a devaluation trap, but they all think I’m a sort of crackpot for suggesting they carry a portfolio that is a little more diversified.
#32 John in Mtl on 03.15.13 at 10:14 pm
It would be reasonable to think that an argument could be made that the banks are responsible for bad loans and not the CMHC, if it can be proven that the banks did not perform due diligence when approving the loans as they knew they would not lose money if the borrower defaulted.
Keep in mind that friends look out for one another, which is why big banks were given such a juicy steak as the CMHC in the first place. who invited them to dinner? The same ones who offered to pick up the tab and we all get stuck with the bill. Also, they all have room full of lawyers to double and triple check their legalese so that they can worm their way out of it all.
Great writing…thank you again!
These three banks will suffer the most damage in a Canadian housing slowdown http://wp.me/pMyQt-1fjS
#37 Shawn Allen –
”WHY DO HOUSES COST SO MUCH in CANADA?”
I had a similar discussion with a large developer from Edmonton on flight back to Vancouver some months ago. Our discussion was mainly to do with the rapid increase in real estate values from 2005/2007 period when real estate in Alberta peaked in the spring of 07 and in which time prices doubled.
His response was ”Super Profits”. He said that banks were offering cheap money with ”prime minus” rates causing a huge demand. That, coupled with the fact that land prices were pretty much set by the developers who basically had a monopoly on it having purchased several years supply.
He said that even the sub-trades were bidding incredibly high since there was a shortage of skilled labor and even a laborer was going for $28.00 per hr.
But he said the main reason was ”Super Profits”. In other words, GREED. So, where did it get them. Prices have remained flat and even declined in the past 6 years. But that is Alberta, don’t know about the rest of the country.
Shanks: Also, they have rooms full of lawyers
they being the banks
Unlike the US, Canadian banks don’t have MERS
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_Electronic_Registration_Systems
I expect that the mortgages are duly registered. I also think we won’t find any robo-signing where basically people are paid minimum wage to sign mortgage documents as bank officers. Bank officers such as vice president.
Wondering why CMHC instructed Quebec realtors to lie about foreclosure data? Is it because CBA's latest mortgage in arrears for Quebec was up 5% y/y and 7% m/m in December? Did CMHC also instruct GMREB to revise MLS listings to have random numbers so buyers can't guess how long a property has been on the market? Did CMHC also instruct CREA to remove all of Quebec's annual MLS data too?
This is no coincidence.
And yet every SFH under $1M in Toronto (and many over $1M) still end up in bidding wars.
The “Vancouverization” of Toronto is complete.
Now, when will the Vancouver-esque crash happen? How soon until the RE cartel has press releases that say “well, if you exclude Toronto, the Canadian market is on fire!”?
Bravo, a convincing victory for G-Turn on that pitiable poll. G-Turn destroyed the other six gimps. On the vote percentage, as I’m looking at it right now (77%), G-Turn is almost dead on with how much this bloated RE market is overpriced. Coincidence? Fixed?
If I hear G-Turn regurgitate July 9th one more time, I’m quite confident I’m going to spew. We get the point. July 9th saved G-Turn’s a$$ when it comes to his predictions.
Captain, how soon can you land?
I can’t tell.
You can tell me. I’m a doctor.
No. I mean I’m just not sure.
Well, can’t you take a guess?
Well, not for another two hours.
You can’t take a guess for another two hours?
Over & Out
30 Shawn
“What I’d also like to see are the deciles. Surely the
bottom one or two deciles have debt to annual income
ratios of zero. One shudders to think what it is for the top decile.”
Shawn, would you get on that please?
#30 Shawn Allen
While debt levels are no doubt important, it is just as important to think about what that credit was spent on. Many of the leveraged purchases made are for things with varying degrees of negative use-values. In other words, unproductive debt, and just a plain waste of energy/biomass for no good reason.
Cue the sophistry.
(Didn’t Garth kick you off this site once or twice already due to your relentless pomposity?)
Read the article titled “It’s always the best time to buy” on the Burning Platform blog (http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=49703)
USA real estate pump & dump shenanigans laid bare but it appears that it’s no different here.
#10 Good Authority on 03.15.13 at 9:21 pm
Thanks goodness I sold last week and was fortunate to put all my RE bonus tax free profits into fancy coloured diamonds. A trusted source on the radio said they go up 20 – 40 % a year almost indefinitely.
____________________________________________
Heard the same story. Guildhall really makes a convincing case. I mean last I heard, silver was cheap at $48 and it was going all the way to $90 in a couple years. Sure glad I bought with every investible dollar I had!
Article from Moneysense website by Ramona King a Century 21 agent. Intetesting note: she starts the article agreeing there is a ‘correction” coming, and later how this is a good thing but than ends the article with a comment/ quote on AMERICAN real estate stating the “real return” of estate will be 3.5% over next ten years (in the U.S.). I’m assuming she tried to leave the impression Canadian real estate would do the same? The title of the article also says there’s no housing crash, but click onto the actual article and its much different. I guess Ms. King, like many others in real estate, property development, and banking (especially the high profile ones showing up on daytime talk shows, and HGTV) believe the majority of us are not intelligent enough to pick up on the holes/ inconsistencies in the messages they flog via the MSM? Yes, and all of the buyers/ renters on House Hunters and other shows haven’t been selected based on having actually closed on a sale or rental agreement BEFORE taping the show to ensure an easy, clean taping with no surprises. Here’s a hint: its usually the empty place and or one they pretend to be most unsure of they’ve already closed on before applying for the show.
Here is the link to the Money Sense online article I noted in my comment…
http://www.moneysense.ca/2013/03/13/there’s-not-going-to-be-a-housing-crash/
Garth is good all the time! You never fail to make my night Garth :)
“It would be reasonable to think that an argument could be made that the banks are responsible for bad loans and not the CMHC, if it can be proven that the banks did not perform due diligence when approving the loans as they knew they would not lose money if the borrower defaulted. “
If the CMHC unduly harasses the banks on matters related to the loans (which CMHC was handing insurance out for like candy, with their automated computer system), then the banks will simply shut down mortgage lending altogether, causing a systemic meltdown of the economy. So basically the banks have a loaded gun to the head of the CMHC and the government.
Is it just me or did anyone else here notice that rents for 1 bedroom condos in Toronto Kijiji are going down? They are almost reaching down to $1000 mark…
I read the Province today at lunch and saw that story. One soon to be sorry 31 year old putting his 5% down for $600/sqft box. Not concerned about talks of correction “just want to build equity and not pay rent”. Poorly written story even to pump RE. It really was a joke.
–
“And now the shame. Is there still doubt where we’re headed?” — Glad to see you’ve put those nutbarfreakcheeks out to pasture for a while. Let them chew on their cud while frothing at the mouth and falling over backwards!
*
#1 george — Exc. post.
#33 TurnerNation — Agreed. We owe him one!
#20 East Coast Girl — Garth, send ECG a signed copy of Money Road, park the windfall as per Garth’s investment advice, let monthly income pay rent and bills and enjoy life while not paying taxes, utilities etc.
*
Mercy! CBS (m$m) actually goes after banxters, and Putin It is widely accepted that all wars are banxter wars, and Putin has banned foreign banxters from yesterday. Marching to WW3? Obomba’s cost so far: US$19 tri. Expensive maintenance; Cdn. dividends and the dividend tax credit; Cdn. Friday links; Money Pie; Italy Terrifying; Fall from grace So quickly; Istanbul’s Wall St. — Magnifico New York’s Wall St. — Pathetic; US in decline next gen. is nothing like their parents; Massive Ships for entrepreneurs; Steve Keen Margin debt will play havoc with the stock market.
*
2:09 clip UFO puts light (tractor-beam?) onto 18-wheeler and removes contents; Dad’s take (Nostradamus) on Pope Francis (link in); Mexican town Get rid of police, live happier lives; Rock School in China (not music); That’s life Stronger always over the weak; Dirty Doctor Camera in watch; Eye Phone vs. iPhone Eye-controlled Galaxy S4 vs. Apple’s iPhone; Surf Hog Even piglets do it; Not a Stradivarius, but pretty good cousin; Sleepwalking Found nine miles from home; 0:21 clip — Soccer Hit the woodwork four times with one shot, and still doesn’t score; World’s strangest natural wonders. Brad Lamb is not among them; MIT — Nuke Waste Powering the world with it? Pope’s agenda; UFO or something in teleportation? UK (Af’stan) and UK (Syria) Both backfiring and costing zillions, plus Phoney Tony Blair War criminal? You bet, just like dubya and his gang; Asia’s defense spending Preparing for something? 5:54 clip The galaxy is in a permanent vortex; First electronic tattoo printed onto skin; Ten Concept Cars.
My parents on Vancouver Island sold this week. Dropped their price to get out before the drop. I keep telling my mom she did the right thing. A buyer was a blessing, not a curse!
They are now free to move to their desired snowbird status, I’m greatful some South African couple bought at the peak.
Thanks Garth, I send your posts to my mom daily. To help her rid the emotional real estate bond. Their house was a money pit of renovations they don’t need if they want to retire. Boomers, shedding tears over wood and paint, won’t help them to stay out their kids basements…
I rent, don’t want my parents on the contract.
Why do houses cost so much in Canada?
I am in wholesale supplying materials for new construction. Generally the rule of thumb is new home costs should value twice the property. Average cost
“here” is 200 k per lot = 600 k per spec home.
I supply the products and I don’t get it. Someone’s getting fed. 200.00 / sq ft is too high. 200 k per lot is crazy. It’s out of proportion.
It’s funny that the Regina Leader Post headline was ‘Regina home sales up 5.9% in February’ – which only reflected existing home sales but neglected the decline in total home sales 26.5% YOY and down 26.9% YTD.
Moral of the story: The media knows who’s got their lunch money.
I believe there is many people in the world who pretend they are rich, the same as I believe there is some people who pretend they are not. Like Garth said in today’s post the people who are not indebted, and I will add that to me this also means: balanced, diversified, and liquid, will not be hurt. Reminds me of the story about the millionaire next door. To the indebted, the : ” I don’t want to throw my money away on rent, but think nothing of $500,000 mortgages, or having all of your net worth(less) in one asset, the “Real” wealthy people don’t talk to you, they just listen to you and feel sorry for your ignorance. However, there is many people in the world to who you are their target, and they will knowingly screw you into poverty without batting an eye. “Hats off” to Garth, who is brave enough to name them:) …….love this blog:)
#235 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.15.13 at 6:49 pm
“Wait a moment; didn’t you global warming cultists tell us all the polar bears would drown?”
=====================================
Recommend the series “Natures Giants”
http://www.pbs.org/programs/inside-natures-giants/
Team of experts dissects some of natures largest animals (Great White Shark is very intriguing )
What is the colour of a Polar Bear?
If we talk about skin colour? ..its black !
Well the house went on the market today and there was a bit of a feeding frenzy. Found out they listed the house $50,000 less than what the owner offered it to us, now creating probably a bidding war.
On top of that I went ahead and put in a low ball offer on the one acre lot we have been eyeing and found out that there is an excepted offer on that property also.
Needless to say I tied one on with my bottle of Pendleton and then we went for dinner. Can I swear now???
I’m simply amazed that folks living in Vancouver making an average wage would put down $400,000 on a condo, with the accompanying high condo fees, when they could buy the same condo and make a similar wage for $100,000 in a mid-size city like London, Ontario. The only conclusion being that people are not interested in ever actually owning a home; they are only interested in making payments until they die, in the city of their choosing. For many Canadians, the dream of owning a home (do people dream of owning a condo?) means not actually owning it, but paying the bank forever on the assumption that it means they “own” it, somehow. Interesting thought process.
#12 Alex
Dude it’s like you’re standing looking at a raging forest fire heading towards. Everyone is telling you to run but you believe you’re not going to get burned because the trees your standing around are different. All the trees in this fire will burn…just not at the same time so run now while you still have time.
Re: #46 Mark on 03.15.13 at 10:51 pm
The smart people are protecting their capital base. The people in GIC’s will come out on top like the tortoise defeated the hare. People holding equities will lose all their money guaranteed. The bear market rally should end at the end of this month and markets worldwide should plunge somewhere from 50 to 80 percent. The DAX could lose more than 80 percent but in general between 50 and 80 percent.
#32John in Mtl on 03.15.13 at 10:14 pm
I ask: what can us taxpayers do if borrowers backed by CMHC start to default in massive numbers? I sure as hell don’t want to pay for someone else’s folly. Its bad enough that we’ll have to pony up for our pensions, government overspending and perks given to corporate friends…
Seriously, how can we start a massive protest that will get the government to listen up and throw the irresponsibilities for lax lending practices right back in the bank’s face?
John
Amen to that sir
I mean it, its time to go out and tell those ottawa boners to stop this bleeding!
I have a neighbour across the street who is trying to sell his home. He listed higher than he should have because the house down the street sold for higher than it should have (buyer was in a rush b/c he was being sent overseas with the Navy and wanted a place quick for his family…a good agent would have told him that). I told him to list it last spring if he was even thinking about a move in the future, but he waited. Now he’s still trying to sell it after being on the market for 2 months with few looks. Everyone is holding. The sellers want more and the buyers want to pay less. The buyers will win in this one because folks like my neighbour are ready to live in a retirement home. This won’t end well.
CREA has revised their projections 3 times downward this year! Who believes them? Who are the idiots who repeat these numbers like parrots? I guess this is the beginning of Canada’s depression.
Garth, 78% of the people polled voted you the most trust worthy cat in Real Estate. That Rob Carrot guy? That skinny little nerd got only 1%! And that geek works at a national newspaper! Brad Lamb is beating him at 4%!
Bwahaha!
“Hey Rob, what does it feel like when no cares what you say?”
And one more thing, off topic, but I hope Nick Diaz beats Georges St Piere. “Where you at, Georges? Where you at?”
#26 Old Man on 03.15.13 at 9:58 pm
#20 East Coast Girl – not enough info but $2000 a month to rent a house is not on the page, so find an apartment to park, and do not buy a home anywhere for several years, as a meltdown is coming.
*******
This is really bad advice, Old Man. Maybe East Coast Girl only likes houses, or needs a house for some reason. You also don’t have any idea what her resources are, maybe 2000 is very affordable. So to tell her “don’t rent a house” without more information is really unhelpful.
So many people think that if they rent they must find the most horrible decrepit tiny dark revolting basement apartment they could possibly torture themselves in, because if they don’t they are “throwing money away” on rent. SHELTER COSTS MONEY. You’all need to get your head around that idea. The best strategy is to use a rent versus buy calculator to decide whether it is better to rent the shelter, or buy it. The New York Times has a very good one, but there are others. But if the cost to buy the house is nearly 20 times annual rent, the calculator will almost certainly recommend to rent. So rent the house, until either rents increase or house prices fall, then buy the house. Buying should make sense in Canada again in about 4-5 years.
Clever guy this Shawn Allen character. Keep an eye on him.
And out like a bear.
Canadian Debt growing Exponentially. Its not a linear growth because as you debt grows, it hedges against you disposable income (After Tax) we went from 156 to 165. That is a huge jump.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/03/15/business-debt-worth-canada.html
It has been BS printed by Global and the local media saying Canadians are reducing DEBT. How can they get it so so wrong.
F and C better start making some major cuts before this thing gets completely out of hand. (Actually I believe its too late already.)
What about the dawson creek b.c. area, things are booming here, less that 3 percent unemployment.
Can the housing market survive up here?
Brad Lamb using all condo buyers as the sacrificial lamb!
The main stream media will surely erodes, event more, when the public finally discover ,that their where partially lie to, for so many years, in one of the most important investment of their life, realestate. They will finally start looking else where, mostly the Internet, for their informations.
The correction in real estate is the last nail in the coffins, of the news papers. Why buy some old stuff that lies to you!
#50 Ronaldo,
I second your report based on observation in Ottawa. I’d be careful about extending the blame to sub-trades, however, because they are squeezed unmercifully by developers.
Developers don’t build “communities”, they build as many houses as they can fit into a land assembly, accounting for SFH on 35 foot lots and townhouses in suburbia. Houses and development infrastructure are built with as many “cost-cutting improvements” as can be gotten away with under industry-shaped codes and bylaws, while municipal staffs practically get paid to sleep at the switch. The sales arm of the RE industry then market the whole thing as desirable.
Only very small and dumb developers go broke. The big ones make so much money that they have to become philanthropists.
“Of course the housing cartel’s working overtime at its usual disinformation. CREA says prices will decline this year by only 0.2%, while its Frankenumber actually rose 2.7% in February.”
Make no mistake- the RE cartel and CMHC are the opposition. Believe their pronunciations at your peril.
Now, many MSM interviews are recommending waiting because prices will continue dropping for a very long time to come. There is absolutely no incentive to rush into a purchase. Buyers are in the drivers seat now and given crippling debt loads and job losses, the horizon on this new and healthy correction is invisible.
#66 mark on 03.16.13 at 4:50 am
What about the dawson creek b.c. area, things are booming here, less that 3 percent unemployment.
Can the housing market survive up here?
—————-
Only if you marry Tom Cruise and have baby Suri.
See if you can see any mention of this decline in the Vancouver Sun, or on Global BC for that matter.
Cyclical and Regional
As global R.E. markets contort at varying levels and time frames so does the national market in different provinces. Vancouver will be Pheonix, Toronto will be Miami, Montreal will be Las Vegas. Very large drops will be evident in overbuilt major cities, at varying times, with National averages down 30%.
Banks are protected by R.E. fluctuations of up to 25% through CMHC underwriting. I wish the Fed. gave my business those guarantees? But, what if the market falls on average over 25% like the U.S did? Will banks tier one ratios under the new standards be acceptable if they have to use Capitol reserves? Banks are not your friend!
Stay out of Financials until R.E. corrects and then buy at the bottom for the long ride home.
The snowball we call R.E. has now gotten momentum at the top of the hill and the speed of its downward trajectory will astound even the Garth Turner Bears.
People’s minds are changed through observation not argument………….Mark Twain
@ #51 45north on 03.15.13 at 11:21 pm
Shanks: Also, they have rooms full of lawyers
they being the banks
Unlike the US, Canadian banks don’t have MERS
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_Electronic_Registration_Systems
I expect that the mortgages are duly registered. I also think we won’t find any robo-signing where basically people are paid minimum wage to sign mortgage documents as bank officers. Bank officers such as vice president.
——————
Google: “CMHC Emili”, or “Emili site:greaterfool.ca”
Robo approvals have been here in Canada for a very long time, and given that CMHC-insured mortgages make up the vast majority of all lending during the Canadian RE bubble, I would suspect that a very high percentage of Canadian mortgages were robo-approved.
#76 Whitey on 03.16.13 at 2:36 am
Pigs get slaughtered.
How does the Vancouver Province continue to sell newspapers? And who the hell believes CREA anymore? “The masses are asses,” is my favourite quip.
This just came into my spam filter…
“Your Real Estate Update
Released March 16 2013
It’s been a great start to 2013; [deleted] is expanding its team of agents to better serve GTA’s homebuyers as we continue reinventing real estate. If you are, or know of, a real estate sales representative who has a passion for customer service, along with a great record and a knack for technology, please apply or share!
Aside from that, we have many great opportunities for you to get involved with GTA’s real estate scene. Get 25% off tickets to the 2013 Property Show and gain insight into the real estate market, projects and more. Also, we take a look at four VIP real estate properties, ideal for investors and first time home buyers: The Renaissance Condos in Oakville, Three7 Condos and Lofts in Scarborough, Downtown Erin Mills Condominiums in Mississauga and Markham and Ellesmere Condos in Scarborough.”
This is denial and desperation. “Also, we take a look at four VIP real estate properties, ideal for investors and first time home buyers:”…
Maybe I’ll click on the link and have a quick look at this.
“This project is not yet open to the public. Register with us to get FREE priority access.”
“Are you sure you want to permanently delete all email in Spam?”
Umm, yeah.
I don’t believe there are lots of foreclosed houses on the market that we are not hearing about. I work at a big 5 bank and monthly write off on our mortgage portfolio is in the low single digits. Think 3 or 4 per month. Unless the other FIs have completely messed up on their lending standards I suspect thing are no different there. I do however believe this number will swell greatly in the next few months as prices start coming down.
Just got home Fromm sunny and worm Atlanta GA. Real estate is definitely picking up steam there ;) single digit increase year over year, trend is definitely there.
And peace of hwy real estate formerly known as hi-occupancy lane, is now express toll lane. I wander how long before “we” adopt same on our hwys…
http://i49.tinypic.com/104ncpx.jpg
#81 observer on 03.16.13 at 4:39 am
F has lost control and C is moving on….
They should have been making carefully crafted interest rate increases in the order of about 10 basis points per quarter over the past 5 years.
Had they done so, we’d be looking a huge deal better, there would be far less consumer debt and more spending by people with actual savings to generate interest. Those with savings are creatively finding ways to preserve their capital bases- at almost any cost. The really good ones can go on indefinitely. And will. The real economy, consequently, will continue to shrivel.
just like a politician to spend $500,000 in legal fees to get $368,000 back.
Come Here! Go away!!
#74 Tony on 03.16.13 at 2:06 am
“The bear market rally should end at the end of this month and markets worldwide should plunge somewhere from 50 to 80 percent. The DAX could lose more than 80 percent but in general between 50 and 80 percent.”
——————————————————————–
So which one is it? 50 or 80? Did the dart lend right on the line, somewhere between 50 and 80?
Vivek on 03.16.13 at 12:27 am
Is it just me or did anyone else here notice that rents for 1 bedroom condos in Toronto Kijiji are going down? They are almost reaching down to $1000 mark…
—————————————————————–
My buddy has a condo DT Toronto and has tried to rent out his condo for months and no takers. I told him he has to lower the price as no one will pay $1300 a month for a 670SQ one bedroom condo. He is mad since he will be losing money every month. I told him he is already losing money every month. Toronto condos are going to crash at least 50%. Anyone stupid enough to buy are going to get pounded.
#38 Shawn Allen
Cheap and easy credit.
Aren’t you that financial adviser dude?
Just zoomed in on the article – yup it’s Death By Kando.
5% down, no savings, 16-yr-old building means ever increasing condos and special assessment fees; he has nothing in savings and nefarious sounding “other debt”; his monthly payments doubled.
If he loses job, it’s over.
In other news the Red bank began a full pronged assault on the populace: I got an email for a pre-approved 5k LOC; mailer for their AMEX card; then a phone call for a credit card and ‘lo interest’ balance transfers.
I guess the head honchos called for market share increases. The front liners go smilin’ and dialin’.
In Soviet Kanada, loan calls you!
Our system, our way of life is superior?! All other systems are weak and inferior, doomed to failure!? Cue the goose stepping. It’s what we fight for against unseen by omnipresent overseas bogeymen – we are told? :-0
The reality is that CDN’s are either so poor….the young….or so strapped financially that the real estate market …and every other market is doomed at this point. Look at the facts….retail reports worst numbers ever…liqour sales are up….credit is exploding…thrift stores have become chic…….students are laughing about being arrested…which screws their chances of ever getting bonded or getting a real job overseas…..the level of mental illness and particularily schizophenia is spiking across the country……Canada has reached a new low generally…….unles you’re selling drugs or liquor……heads up on that Mr Lamb…the future is in misery.
#50 Ronaldo
The contractors, trades and builders got paid, so that’s where it got them.
Prices of houses are high, because that is exactly how much people are willing and able to pay for them. Period. Builders and vendors will charge as much as people will pay. Don’t want an expensive house? Don’t pay for one.
I know people need a villain. A simple explanation they can pin on an identifiable individual. Like in the movies, the hero kills the bad guy, all his minions fall in line and everyone lives happily ever after.
Well, there isn’t one. Real world doesn’t work like that. It’s not “greed”, or “super profits”, or “the Illuminati”, it’s not a conspiracy. But if you really need a villain, look in the mirror.
Detroit – bank walkaways
…who actually evades responsibility for paying taxes on those properties?
http://www.nationalmemo.com/how-deadbeat-banks-pushed-detroit-to-the-brink/
…”mate yur getting bloody good at this libor game…think of me when yur on yur yacht in monaco wont’t you,”
Detroit also owes $3.8 billion in interest rate swaps
the variable interest rates involved in interest rate swaps are often pegged to LIBOR—
http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/03/12/why-detroit-is-broke-and-whos-being-asked-to-pay/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/california-cities-sue-banks-over-libor-rates-law-firm-says-1-.html#disqus_thread
=
Isn’t the net worth of Canadian household increase of 1.4% reported by Stat Can skewed to people who own stocks and have pensions?
And isn’t a debt ratio of $164.97 for every $100 disposable income very, very worrisome ?
Add on a Canadian 15% average decline in real estate
and aren’t many people in financial trouble?
Finally add on 500,000 boomers retiring and no salary increases for the average Joe !!!
As Garth writes: ”Canadians owe $1.1 trillion in home loans, and indebtedness is rising at five times the inflation rate. At the same time among our largest population group (the Boomers), 78% have houses, 70% have no pensions and 60% don’t have a hundred grand saved.” – Garth
Now I know why Pope Francis 1 wants to help the poor ;-).
#73 Tron, great analogy!
“It’s a fraud – marketing designed as news.”
… fraud? don’t you mean business as usual?
WHY CANADIAN HOUSE PRICES ARE SO HIGH?
There has been some very good responses to my question.
Ronaldo at #50 had information that the main reason was excess profits and greed. So this calls into question why competition does not eliminate that? I can see that in a hot economy like Alberta, but it should not apply across the country.
JPN at 67 is a supplier to the industry and indicates someone is making too much profit especially the lot developers. (So where is the competition?)
Herb at 85 has information that big land developers make huge profits and become philanthropists. Again, competition should prevent this. Something appears to be preventing competition from working its magic.
Devore at 100 suggests the reason for high house prices is cheap and easy credit. Credit is cheap and easy which suggests competition is working pretty well in the banking sector.
Devore again at 103 says “Builders and vendors will charge as much as people will pay.” That is valid for any individual builder he can charge what the market will bear. But why has competition and productivity throughout the supply chain not driven many of the costs down?
Perhaps the time is ripe for more competition throughout the supply chain in home building. What barriers prevent U.S. land developers operating in Canada? (There is free trade after all).
In Florida during the boom, houses were built by cheap Mexican labour. If it be true that Canadian labour is charging excessive rates then we do have options.
There are no doubt many reasons for high home building costs. If industry and government worked together to lower costs it could be done.
Problem is, lower house prices would crush recent buyers and in some way hurt all existing home owners and the banking industry and CMHC. There are vested interests in having houses prices never decline.
If they can build new for half the cost in the U.S. something will have to give.
Meanwhile there are at least some land developers that trade on the public markets. If their profits are excessive they might make good investments.
Hey Smoking Man,
Price appreciation is starting to migrate from W6 into W7 and W8. (For those who don’t know I am referencing west end of Toronto proper.)
Didn’t see any crazy prices last year, I thought we might have missed the wave but it is here now.
Going to show that real estate trends can be very regional.
I’m calling for 10% higher prices in my neck of the woods, or wood if you know what I mean.
Penny Henny
Hey Smoking Man,
did you ever mention when you were calling a top for Toronto proper SFH.
I’m thinking June 2014.
Penny Henny
Hello dogs in Atlantic City getting my ass kicked,
good news I opened a forex trading account, first day of trading 1600 with no more than a notional value of more than 5k,trading a combo of camel toe, batman style. Once I get the hang of trading on the Samsung, look out….. My average at play will be well over 5k 7 winning trades on loser. The loser was 108 bucks due to trade execution error, put in a market orders by fat finger……
Unlike most of you dogs who want your parents, your brothers and sisters to lose on real estate because you lack imagination to find new way to make loot. Your precivd since of success will be others losing cause you lack coconuts…… It’s simple not going to happen in Gta no matter what the bearded celebrity says….
Sorry but is true……
All my lessons go over your heads cause you don’t focus on the road ahead rather are abscessed with the rear view mirror.
Open a trading account, go with batman style and never look back again
Damn slot machine took another hundred off me while typing this post
Penny Henny on 03.16.13 at 12:20 pm
Hey Smoking Man,did you ever mention when you were calling a top for Toronto proper SFH.I’m thinking June 2014.Penny Hen…..
…………………..
Impressive Penny posted that a few years ago.. You rememberd
Then revised it to 2015
But that was before low rates for ever, the only negative pressure on the Toronto market is msm following orders from a back office in ottawa, with out higher rates or job losses, re is solid. MSM is just aiding in keeping it from prices going to the moon..
Amazing you remember 2014 nice
#94 Risk Analyst – your must work for one of the big 5 with the least risk exposure in this housing market. My guess is TD or Scotia.
Re: #98 AK on 03.16.13 at 10:27 am
Japan on the lowest side and Germany on the highest side when the markets tank. In other words Japan is the least overvalued and Germany is the most overvalued.
While banks are entitled to 100 % reimbursement from CMHC, there will be many headaches as current rules state they only get reimbursed if the file is in good standing.
Not too long ago, some very well placed senior lenders with direct knowledge told me a few years ago, at least one major bank was caught with a disastrous number of deficient files that would not be covered if (more likely when) the mortgages go bad. Auditors for the insurer were so stunned the bank lost its right to offer the cashback/5 % dowm mortgages for a while.
Your scum politicians can easily change this rule if the number of files becomes a major issue (this would be a fraud on top of a scam which is CMHC) so that taxpayers reimburse the banks for bad loans that did not meet the criteria.
So hold on and watch..banks will survive but some will have some pains and aches…
JO
I’m confused. If sales are down, how can mortgage loans be up????
Because buyers increasingly purchase beyond their means. Sales are down year/year, but people are still buying. — Garth
I love my 35 yr. mortgage more with every read of Mr. Turners blog. 15 yr. Reverse R.R.S.P. loan is loveable too. I hope to have on my tomb stone, “Here lies a man who was loved by the part of the Greatest Bond Bubble that ran from 2001 to 2015 and possibly up to 2020”. Sometimes I think the house bought me not me buy house.
Comment of the month………….from #85 Herb………..
“Developers don’t build “communities”, they build as many houses as they can fit into a land assembly, accounting for SFH on 35 foot lots and townhouses in suburbia. Houses and development infrastructure are built with as many “cost-cutting improvements” as can be gotten away with under industry-shaped codes and bylaws, while municipal staffs practically get paid to sleep at the switch. The sales arm of the RE industry then market the whole thing as desirable.”
Drive into Calgary one day, and from the city limits until you hit the inner city, it looks just like “Lego Land”………….
Garth,
Next time stay away from voting race with lilliputians. Those site needs some traffic.
If you do, get a nice shave :)
“Cypriot banks were insured up to the value of €100,000 with any one bank. Today that solemn and governmental promise has been shown to be false. And not even the European Union nor the European Central Bank are going to make them stick to it. Indeed, very much the other way around. The EU and ECB are insisting that the Cyprus authorities breach this deposit insurance provision.” ~Forbes
Thousands of British expat retirees got skewered this weekend. Garth remind us again why deposit insurance is a farce.
Guess I don’t need to, do I? — Garth
Check out the previous selling prices for this Oakville house:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/pool-proves-the-key-to-oakville-home-sale/article9784796/
$701,000 (2012-2013, whenever this sold)
$395,000 (2002)
$322,200 (1989)
So, it goes up all of $70k in 13 years, and then suddenly over $300k in the last 10 years…
What bubble?
#81 observer on 03.16.13 at 4:39 am
=================================
While far from being guiltless in our consumer driven culture, it is nonetheless very difficult for average people to reduce debt.
The government of special interest, by special interest, for special interest ensures that all items that are necessities far outpace inflation in pricing, whereas luxury and other items not so much.
In a normal market situation, when demand is high and supply limited eventually more supply enters the market and price eventually falls. Is it a coincidence that in the world’s second largest country in land mass and one with the most fertile land worldwide (the prairies) + maximum water resources the price of food is continuously sky rocketing? Speaking for myself, I don’t believe in coincidences.
Raven: The snowball we call real estate has now gotten momentum at the top of the hill and the speed of its downward trajectory will astound even the Garth Turner Bears.
People’s minds are changed through observation not argument………….Mark Twain
pretty funny
Best analogy:
Old days trade one beaver pelt for one rifle.
Bank come in as middleman.
Creates money out of thin air.
Banks say beaver pelt = $10 means rifle = $10 dollars.
Beaver hunter expands, so do gun manufacturer=both rely on bank.
Eventually irrational exuberance takes over, and things crash.
Bank then pays off own bill of $10 for ink and paper, and seizes real assets. Own thousands of guns and beaver pelts.
QED.
#78 Canuck Abroad – I premised by saying not enough info, and when one rents a house in the East Coast it needs to be focused as would need to know where, as the average cost can be much lower, not to mention with a base of $2000 as rent plus utilities as the norm. I reason why would someone sell one home minus all the closing costs to buy another in a melt down market over the next several years? The math don’t work for me, and you gave this woman what as an alternative?
http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Richmond+Chinese+signs+hand+inclusive+delegation+appealing/8105095/story.html
Try the restaurant menus in a Chinese restaurant … written in Chinese only.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12301119&PidKey=-1025766005
Anyone know how I can get on a mailing list for Foreclosures & Judicial For Sale?
saw a post a couple days back from Bubba mentioning this – just wondering how to get it….
BUT THEY GAVE THEIR WORD!
120 Mcrath said:
“Cypriot banks were insured up to the value of €100,000 with any one bank. Today that solemn and governmental promise has been shown to be false.”
********************************************
A sad reminder that any financial guarantee is only as strong as the entity making that guarantee.
This is a competitive advantage that Warren Buffett has used for decades in his insurance operations. He retained most or all profits in the insurance companies and bought stocks. This provided his insurance companies with capital far far beyond the regulatory minimums. Come what may, Berkshire will deliver on its promises. The same cannot be said of Cypriot banks. Nor can it be said of the banks of any country that does print its own currency.
Remember when a local project guarantees you a 10% return, the guarantee means nothing if the that project and company goes bust.
Kim Campbells woes?
FYI: She IS a lawyer.
#120 Macrath on 03.16.13 at 1:44 pm
So its OK to impose a levy on the nation’s deposits just as long as they don’t breach deposit insurance? Forget about deposit insurance! This government was going to topple down into bankruptcy along with MOST if not ALL of the other “obligations”,”promises” and “guarantess” that it made!
“Government spokesman Christos Stylianides said Cypriot officials had resisted intense pressure to accept a deposit levy of a whopping 40 percent.”
40 PERCENT!!!!!!!
That’s crazy!
I like the posters on this blog the best. There is such a good mix on here! Some of you are extremely entertaining!! I can’t believe the posts Vlad puts out all the time! BTW: how are the “parachute” lessons going? Are you getting your 5 jumps a weeks worth?
#111 Smoking Man – In Atlantic City go to the roulette game and give the man a nod with a wink. Bet 16/19 as this is the code for you as a VIP to become a winner.
Just checked the Single Family Home sales numbers on the Vancouver Real Estate Board & the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board this AM. Combines sales are worse than they were in 2009 following the financial crisis. Here are the stats straight from the boards computers this morning:
Combines Single Family Home Sales for Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards are 42% below 2012 sales, 56% below 2011 sales, 46% below 2010 sales, 7% below 2009 sales following the financial crisis. Here are the numbers:
Jan. 1st 2013 to March 16th 2013: 2,475
Jan. 1st 2013 to March 16th 2012: 4,368
Jan. 1st 2013 to March 16th 2011: 5,606
Jan. 1st 2013 to March 16th 2010: 4,497
Jan. 1st 2013 to March 16th 2009: 2,657
Theses are the numbers the REalters will never tell the sheeple. Your welcome :-)
Cheers
pw
Sure is a nice feeling to be sitting at Starbucks in Maui watching the whales ! Not as good as the feeling of going to bed each nite with nodebt!
Garth, implied in arguments that the housing market will correct big-time is the assumption that Flaherty & co will not undo some of their mortgage rule tightening any time soon and/or will not lower interst rates. With the economy as a whole having become so dependend on the housing market, what are your reasons for believing interst rates will not be lowered further and that mortage rules will not be relaxed once more?
Because they are not idiots. — Garth
I am not a spiteful person, I will lend compassion to those who trusted the cartel and their agents…but for 7 years I have told people in the Okanagan that real estate was in a bubble….the I TOLD YOU SO moment is coming
And I can’t wait.
Thanks Mr Turner
signed
one of your hapless sheeple minions LOL
I’d rather be right than popular
I know the feeling. — Garth
Canada slips out of top 10 on UN list of developed countries
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/canada-slips-top-10-un-list-developed-countries-144453771.html
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Still considering GICs an option?
People with less than €100,000 in their Cypriot bank accounts will have to pay a one-time tax of 6.75 per cent, those owning more money will lose 9.9 per cent. The measure will be carried out early next week and is expected to net €5.8 billion in additional revenues, Dijsselbloem added, thereby greatly reducing the country’s financing need.
“We found it justified in terms of burden sharing to also involve the depositors,” said Dijsselbloem, noting that it was a “unique measure” because of Cyprus’ outsized banking system.
“As it is a contribution to the financial stability of Cyprus, it seems just to ask a contribution of all deposit holders,” Dijsselbloem added.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/eurozone-finance-ministers-seek-complete-much-delayed-deal-015921869.html
# 21 Weenerman…
LOLOL!!! So true!
Because they are not idiots. — Garth
——————————–
Half idiots sometimes could be more dangerous than full idiots. The last you can at least instantly recognize.
#128 Quebec is Great – I missed that posting, but this might be related to arrears with property taxes, as any property can be sold if a vendor goes into arrears over a period of time, and is usually done with a sealed bid by the authority or jurisdiction of said property that will be advertised. I did this years ago in the USA to hoop me some land holdings in WV.
“Because they are not idiots. — Garth”
They have proven in the past five years that they might well be. Soon they will be facing another terrible economic outlook with even less options to blow another bubble. Looking at the US, it would seem quite likely that they will opt to lower interest rates, to prevent a massive drop in housing values and to artificially drive up the stock market; and to start preparing for our own canadian version of quantitive easing. Yes, we all know it will only make things worse in the long term, amounts to theft from prudent citizens by encouraging us to invest in speculative instruments lest we we effectively get robbed from our savings, etc. The CAD would likely drop, and inflation might rise further – but these would be desired outcomes for F and co, no? Worst case, at some point down the line the debt bubble will burst, but hey nothing amassive round of money printing cannot cover up for another extended period of time. In short, while they have proven to be semi-idiots, but now, faced with only bad options, why on earth would we believe they undo their own stupidity? Doing so will only risk going into a deep recession very soon. In short, Garth, to be convincing they will not take this approach, you should elaborate in a blog post with some convincing arguments that going this path is not in the govt’s interest. It would, in fact, be the path our southern neighbors have been taking, isn’t it?
How long until F & BoC both crack under the lobbying pressure of banksters, mortgage pimpsters, clone builders, and REALTURDs?
The last thing debt-addicted Canadians need right now is a safe house of easing mortgage rules to prop up their crack cocaine of a housing pyramid scheme.
Withdrawl might be painful, but that’s far better than the alternative.
here is a poll that rated the most dangerous financial products
http://www.dangerous-finance.eu/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21760855
#116 Dorothy on 03.16.13 at 1:02 pm
I’m confused. If sales are down, how can mortgage loans be up????
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People continue to borrow against their house. That is how they pay for their Florida and Las Vegas vacations.
BTW: how are the “parachute” lessons going? Are you getting your 5 jumps a weeks worth?
===================================
If at first you don’t succeed, try try again…in next life.
#108 Shawn Allen,
why should there be any more competition in the building industry than in the oil industry? When is the last time you saw meaningful competition at the pump?
Competition is the fig leaf of the Great God Marketplace. When everyone is doing the same thing, and doing nicely by it, why would anyone go for less profit? There may be some competition in commercial construction (see Montreal for fixing that), but in residential it’s mostly eyewash. Like the oil companies, developers control supply. Where else are you going to buy a house, unless you have the moxie and the money to find a lot, hire and control an architect and an independent builders, and find someone to finance the construction process?
And we don’t even have to send out the Competition Bureau to look for conspiracies they can’t find. It’s merely everyone steering by the same compass of greed and heading in the direction of greatest profit.
I was gonna go with F’in (elfin) crazy, but decided to be more creative. Thanks for not deleting the whole thing :)
If that ad is so obviously a fraud…..then where are the highly paid police or gov’t officials/civic servants who are supposed to be safeguarding the public?
These type of undisclosed news -fo -mercials styled as ‘journalism’ are sick…..the ‘reporters’ who take these assignments should be ashamed of themselves….small wonder why the newspaper racket is dying? Nice leave for the younger generation you douchebags!!
#131 EIT
Flat out asset seizures of depositors. It should be an interesting week in the euro zone. Europeans are going to freak out.
http://news.sky.com/story/1065567/cyprus-bailout-savers-lose-money-in-eu-deal
Maskara Greco mascara.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tQvToIifWY
Systemic Economic Collapse: A Brief History of Market Manipulation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i7Q4Mm7t5w
===========
Worth a view.
RETAIL GASOLINE SALES ARE HIGHLY COMPETITIVE?
Ed at 46 asked me:
When is the last time you saw meaningful competition at the pump?
*****************************************
It is a very common view that there is no competition in retail gasoline since all stations tend to charge the same.
Maybe you are right.
But consider that the average retail mark-up on Gasoline in Canada is about 5 to 6 cents per liter.
Couch-Tard has the following figures for its most recent fiscal year: Gross margin 5.45 cents per gallon (page 28 of annual report) Credit card and debit fees eat up about 2 cents of that for a net 3.45 cents per gallon profit to the retailer BEFORE any other costs like staff and rent. The U.S. figures at page 29 of that annual report show 17 cents per gallon gross and 12 cents after deducting five cents for credit cards / debit card fees.
On a 40 liter fill, the retailer has made about $1.38 before paying any staff or rent costs. That is why the retailer is praying that you buy some lottery tickets, smokes and snacks which are high profit.
The actual gasoline is highly competitive and the retailer makes next to nothing.
The reason the prices move in tandem is explained by the commodity nature of the product and the ease with which people switch stations.
The public fixates on this but I would bet collusion is MUCH more common in just about every other industry.
Is there occasional collusion, yes of course.
The refiners and producers face different economics and their profits tend to be higher and more volatile.
And remember how much of the price of gasoline is tax at pump, Federal, Provincial and GST (check the Esso pumps they spell it out). And let’s not forget corporate income tax and royalties and fees paid to acquire oil leases from government
In spite of it all a liter of gas at the convenience store is cheaper than a liter of water.
Competition works and works brutally in some sectors of the economy. Where it is not working, you can generally blame government regulation.
So yeah, I see meaningful competition at the pump daily. Don’t blame the retailer.
Rather than complaining Canadians would have done well to buy Alimentation Couche-Tard stock. Through large size and excellent management they manage to make great returns in a tough business.
Or buy Imperial Oil shares, or….
#150 Macrath – I agree as see fascism at work which might spread, as just tax money deposits or steal money from citizens for the banksters, and those that I will not disclose, as know better. There might be a bank run in Europe, so this might get ugly with a panic.
THE WONDERFUL INVISIBLE HAND
Herb at 147 also said: (my last post reading Ed at 46 should say Herb at 147, sorry)
It’s merely everyone steering by the same compass of greed and heading in the direction of greatest profit.
Herb, I agree totally and Adam Smith taught that we are better off when we each seek to maximize our own gains. It works unless cartels, unregulated monopolies and collusion are allowed. Bring on opencompetition.
Re: Gas prices.
It may be that the retailer has razor thin margins.
In that case, we are all being bucket-hooped by the wholesalers, and possibly more further up the chain.
#147 Herb on 03.16.13 at 4:21 pm
#108 Shawn Allen,
why should there be any more competition in the building industry than in the oil industry? When is the last time you saw meaningful competition at the pump?
====================================
What we are seeing is the future being absorbed into the present. By that I mean future growth is being physically manifested now…an illusion of wealth and prosperity, that will nail the boomers hard, as they have effectively eaten their young.
The young are in so much debt, they cannot maintain the natural progression. Gov’ts exist for the moment, not long term.
Read an interesting article about the Space Shuttle that blew up 10 years ago. Apparently, engineers suspected a problem with the heat shields, and their were discussion to have a satellite take photos. The moral dilemma was if they found something, ( it couldn’t be fixed ) what would they do ?
Tell the astronauts they would die via an explosion upon re-entry?…or stay in space till air ran out? …or say NOTHING and let it happen.
I just want to be there when the SHTF and these parties are strung up.
Apparently this is a big deal in Europe. http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/cyprus-bailout-major-game-changer-1728597128
This is a big story. Must be that Ides of March thing. The “new amazons” (femen- see above) may be stirring. http://morelivers.blogspot.ca/2013/03/16th-mar-special-bailout-of-cyprus.html
155 Shawn Allen
Cartels and monopolies are the result of the profit motive. Government regulation is necessary to create a market free of monopolies and other forms of organized rent-seeking. Why would a profit-seeking individual not join a monopoly or cartel if all they card about was maximum private gain. Maybe you should take a gander through that other work by Smith.
don’t see many new listing for the first two weeks of march
supply is shrinking
#150 Macrath on 03.16.13 at 5:06 pm
“#131 EIT
Flat out asset seizures of depositors. It should be an interesting week in the euro zone. Europeans are going to freak out.”
——————————————————————–
Not surprising. The majority of money deposited in Cyprus banks belongs to the Russians. :-)
“Many of those deposits are held by wealthy Russians who use Cyprus as a convenient place to park money.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/16/why-todays-cyprus-bailout-could-be-the-start-of-the-next-financial-crisis/
I am going to make a contact in Austria to see if I should sell the Euro short to make me some spending money, as she knows all.
CAPITAL NEWS, West Kelowna, BC, March 15th:
Headline: “Current leader crop has little appeal to voters’
Excerpt: “Quite clearly, neither the NDP or the Conservatives will win the next election — the Liberals are simply going to lose.”
And…”not one of the three major parties has a leader worth their own weight in salt….”
*****************
So, there ya go — no leader worthy of our vote.
Rosie…this is a big deal..a very big deal!
People there that are holding money in their hands…
Are 7-10% richer than those holding the same amount in a bank!
Think about that! And don’t think depositors in Spain and Italy aren’t thinking very carefully about the money they
Have in any insolvent banks in those countries….
This could be a huge can of worms opening….lets see what happens this week in the euro zone!
127Mark W: “Try the restaurant menus in a Chinese restaurant … written in Chinese only.”
********************
They’ve taken over Richmond. So much for ‘multiculturism’ — the blending of cultures and all that crap isn’t working.
Sorry to repeat but this is now officially a big story. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2294388/ATMs-emptied-Cyprus-savers-learn-10billion-euro-bailout-agreement-includes-levy-bank-accounts.html
130Tom Vu: “Kim Campbells woes?”
FYI: She IS a lawyer.
********************
She’s not too bright then, is she — buying a pre-sale?
Because they are not idiots. — Garth
******************
Well, they’ve proven that they ARE idiots. They’ve screwed things up royally so far.
Carina was worth $1.56 billion, and went bust in 2007 [7], just a year after it was created.
http://www.propublica.org/article/yet-another-bank-fined-for-a-magnetar-deal-with-yet-more-revealing-emails
=
Massachusetts’ Secretary of the Commonwealth fined Deutsche Bank $17.5 million for not disclosing to investors Magnetar’s role in creating a CDO while betting against it.
#135 Nodebt on 03.16.13 at 3:20 pm
Sure is a nice feeling to be sitting at Starbucks in Maui watching the whales ! Not as good as the feeling of going to bed each nite with nodebt!
Beautiful! Haiku in spades.
#169 Daisy Mae on 03.16.13 at 7:43 pm
130Tom Vu: “Kim Campbells woes?”
FYI: She IS a lawyer.
********************
She’s not too bright then, is she — buying a pre-sale?
====================================
—-Roofers roof leaks.
—-Plumbers toilet plugged.
—-Fireman’s house burn down.
—-How many electricians take to change a light bulb?
—-Does Dr.’s family ever need medical care ?
Conclusion:
When Lawyer get screwed by realtor and has to hire a lawyer…..the planet rejoices.
#158 rosie and a few others.
My goodness. Even Garth sitting on his mega gains has to be nervous with the EU banksters confiscating private savings in Cyprus! Who is next?
Savers beware, the gloves are off.
My fancy coloured diamonds just went up a full 20% just this weekend alone.
I see stupidity is alive and well on the blog tonight. — Garth
“While banks are entitled to 100 % reimbursement from CMHC, there will be many headaches as current rules state they only get reimbursed if the file is in good standing.”
Any amount of intransigence on the part of the CMHC will be met by a swift response by the banks, which will likely include a cessation of lending and loan renewal.
A cessation of lending = market crashes to all cash valuations. Figure about 90% off in Vancouver. And the CMHC is left as a big smoking hole in the ground.
“The smart people are protecting their capital base. The people in GIC’s will come out on top like the tortoise defeated the hare. “
GICs do not protect a ‘capital base’, and they’ve dramatically outperformed the stock market on a risk adjusted basis over the past 3 decades. Buying GICs is just as bad as buying houses right now. They’ll both be devalued. But if you want to bend over and contribute to extra bank profits, be my guest.
#167 Daisy Mae – worry about nothing as when I go for Dim Sum there is a cart service, and have my ivory chop sticks ready to eat. I have an extra pair, and will teach you what foods to eat in those small dishes, and how to use chop sticks too, but you will have to pick up the bill for my tuitoral lesson for fine dining chinese.
Vancouver is the most overpriced real estate on planet Earth. You have single family homes worth in excess of two million/one million that have not sold in years. This means a major collapse in Vancouver is imminent. Watch for values to erode and collapse to zero. The most garbage real estate in the Western Hemisphere is Vancouver. Complete gut jobs selling for half a million and 70 years old. Bob Rennie Marketing systems should be sued for the blatant lies and false marketing and pumping of gut jobs and dog kennel lifestyles in the worst zip codes outside of Botswana Africa.
Ok learned to eat with chopsticks as at one time was dating a girl from Hong Kong. Now could walk into any chinese establishment in Toronto for dinner and ask for the cutlery to be taken away, as they saw my chopsticks which was a sign of respect and honour for the culture. The ownership was told, and most of the staff were chinese, as was called a ghost which is a nickname for a Canadian.
Out of nowhere got the best of service, and at any future time if there was a lineup the ownership would step in to give me the table of my choice with the best of service. The lesson learned in life is always show respect for a different culture; be it in business or just having a dinner, as you will be rewarded in kind.
#153 – Shawn Allen –
”Or buy Imperial Oil shares, or….”
Tim Hortons (THI)
http://web.tmxmoney.com/charting.php?qm_page=41001&qm_symbol=THI
Driving through Vernon today, I stopped by Tim Hortons to pick up a coffee. The lineup in the drive-thru was horendous, and the lined up outside the door as well. It was of course 3:00 p.m. So, I wait for 5 min. and barely moved 3 car lengths. I look across the parking lot and there’s a MacDonalds.
I pulled out of the lineup, drove over to Mac’s and zero cars in the drive-thru. I pull up, order my coffee, and outta there in less than a minute. Guess what? Dang good coffee.
I wonder if the stock will go down if I stop buying my coffee there.
In Vernon that is fine dining. Did you reserve? — Garth
Greed? Can somebody please define it for me?
Thanks
#161 Realtor
Ha Ha “Supply is shrinking” Good one! Thanks for the laugh:-)
BASED ON WHAT, Drive by survey? CREA cartel doesn’t publish listing volume.
Although here in Vantown with real data (taken from MLS)……….listings are UP…….. I suspect it is similar everywhere but like I said, the cartel doesnt release THAT info
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/
The Canadian banks are going to have a come-to-Jesus moment when they are finally exposed for rampant soft mortgage fraud on loans backed by CMHC, like they should have been in 2008 before they were bailed out. If you think that the Harper regime via CMHC is going to let the banks offload it’s steaming pile of subprime soft-fraud mortgages onto the Cons so they can disappear like Mulroney, talk to Garth. Stevie has a sleeve full of knives that he will shank the Big 5 with. But the Credit Unions in B.C. are going to be the first to be in crisis, who will need to be bailed out by the provincial government, and when that isn’t enough, by the feds. Too big to fail, Canada style. Only the bank of Canada and the feds are out of bullets.
Tax Free Savings Accounts? Sure until they need to bail us out. Love these banks and our puppet politicians.
USA, and now Europe all the same the 99% pay the price to make politicians and the 1% rich. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/business/global/facing-bailout-tax-cypriots-try-to-get-cash-out-of-banks.html?_r=0
The only money safe is the money hidden from these leeches
Let’s not get carried away. There will be no confiscation in Canada or the US. — Garth
Why is it only stoned Chics, not rentals are interested in me, and wifyee poo only the guys hit on her, that I know about. Pic on my Blog when I get back to the land of subjects…. CANADA
KOODO RAPES ON DATA ROMMING THIS POST COST 20 BUCKS
This situation in Cypress could very well be the straw that breaks the camels back.
It could be the “atlas shrugged” of 2013.
So much for money being safe in banks.
Let’s not forget for one moment that Canada was bailed out “under the table” in 2007 , while telling the world they had the world’s best banking system.
The cost of that bailout amounted to MORE then the value of the banks involved.
c’est la vie
#117 R. Olausen on
“Sometimes I think the house bought me not me buy house.”
There you have it!! In Soviet Kanada.. ;-)
Let’s not get carried away. There will be no confiscation in Canada or the US. — Garth
Yup, I bet there were a few guys in a bar in Nicosia saying the same thing just last week…
Have a nice conspiracy. — Garth
BC Business’s print magazine this month contains an article ‘The indebted strike back’.
Shocking double-digit increases in BC’s consumer proposals by region – all over.
Are those Bankruptcy Lite?
It’s not found online, yet. http://www.bcbusiness.ca/
Let’s not get carried away. There will be no confiscation in Canada or the US. — Garth
———————–
Of course not. We already have negative interest rates to the tune of 5-6 % a year with underreported inflation and zero interest rates. Why scare the herd and take it once while we can take it every year apparently unnoticed?
Noticed the prices at the stores lately?
I’m going to withdraw every cent from my bank accounts, on Monday!!
Wait I don’t keep money in banks’ accounts. Never have. I judiciously use their uber cheap (these days) credit facilities, though.
Savings accounts are so last century.
I went to roots today and was truly horrified by the prices.
The statisticians can stick their CPI .. well they know where.
Why in the Business section of the Saturday Star where they have a section on real estate in Toronto, do they ALWAYS choose a home (with photo) that has sold for higher than what its Asking Price was? Can they not find one that sold for less?
Carioca Canuck | 16 March 2013 at 8:21 pm | Reply
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Well, judging from the conversation with a bank today, when I called asking where my T5 slip was (it is tax time after all), they seemed to be doing everything thing can to prepare for the worst, and to minimize the damage that they know is coming. Soft landing…..heh……a “flaming crater” is going to be more like it.
The customer service agent says to me (after taking about 5 minutes to determine that she can actually send me another T5 to replace the missing one, which seemed very suspicious)………”I noticed that you have several credit card payments (2 X VISA, 2 X M/C and AMEX) and a couple of cars payments regularily coming out of your accounts”……..I respond……”yes”……and she says……”I can really save you a lot of money”……..and I reply in a baited voice……..”OK…….just how would you do that ?”……and she says “well, we can lower your high interest rates and you’d save thousands”………..to which I reply again…..”How ? My closed end car lease is 1.9% and my wife’s car loan is at 0%…….and we always pay our credit cards off in full each month, and NEVER, EVER carry a balance so we don’t pay interest”………crickets are all I hear, so after about 10 seconds I say…….”have you ever seen either of us draw on the unsecured line of credit in the last 3 years we have had it ?”……and she says “no”……..”so what makes you think we need to borrow money, do you have access to the balances in our other banks accounts on your screen ?”……..”yes”…….more silence……
They’re trying to rewrite everyone they can and reduce people’s TDSR’s as much as they can from the sounds of it, because I started to ask her why the cross selling for debt consolidation was so strong, and she said that they just wanted to to whatever they could to “help their customers out”……..she offered to increase our LOC limit too……on the spot…I said no.
Re: Cyprus…….
Well……….gold was confiscated in the US in the late 30’s……….our present ZIRP state, with inflation factored in, is basically a negative interest rate scenario……….so, it’s not like we’re not getting ripped of already, and it’s not like it hasn’t been done before.
Whenever the “SHTF” currency and capital controls become common place………my wife is from Brasil, would you like to hear some stories from just 30 years ago ? Look at Argentina today. Why would it not happen here along those same lines at some point, it already is to some extent in a different manner anyways ?
Canada, the US and the EU are screwed, finished, done like dinner……..our FIAT money system is all a facade………the Euro currency will collapse first, one or two countries at a time………there is a currency war starting on a world wide basis………and we as a nation cannot even afford to go to war, let alone try and fight in one if we made it to the start line.
I bet you the Cypriots wished they owned shiny rocks or even BITCOINS today.
Just watch the news…….half the bank deposits in Cyprus are Russian and probably dirty money…….gangsters won’t take a 10% haircut sitting down……..there will be payback………and the criminals in Brussels had better hide as best they can.
Hey guys, don’t worry about Cyprus. Their is way nastier shit going on, don’t lose your cool now.
–
“In Vernon that is fine dining. Did you reserve? — Garth” — Vernon has a restaurant? What about Penticton? Kelowna, the centre of the universe, has at least one Timmy’s and a Subway but not sure where.
#70 Dr. Hoof-Hearted — “If we talk about skin colour? ..its black !” — Interesting. I was leaning toward a mix of purple and pink spots on a light orange background. But constant change happens regularly, so I guess black is a good start!
#72 blase — “For many Canadians, the dream of owning a home (do people dream of owning a condo?) means not actually owning it, but paying the bank forever on the assumption that it means they “own” it, somehow.” — I wonder if “owning” a deteriorating asset has led to the influx of these life insurance policies spouted forth on TV during the day? TV is not my bag, but the better half says that’s about the only ads being pushed hard by the banks. The banks want to get their extra large slice of pie before anyone else.
#132 chickenlittle on assignment — “BTW: how are the “parachute” lessons going? Are you getting your 5 jumps a weeks worth?” — Are you referring to the jumps from UFOs I do on a regular basis? If so, the lessons are going well! Now, I’ve upgraded my training to include landing in two different time zones at the same time. Little difficult, but I’ll pass this test as well! BTW, both of us are retired and thoroughly enjoying life.
#173 Tom Vu — “Conclusion: When Lawyer get screwed by realtor and has to hire a lawyer…..the planet rejoices.” — Very good!
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The real terrorists are the IMF, Oz bank accounts, Cyprus – Russia Obviously, there is a way for the west to hit back at Putin (Friday’s link, which said Putin had banned western banks from working in Russia), and that is to put the IMF (TPTB) in charge of Cyprus where Russians have a lot of money hiding, get a back door into Iran where there is a public central bank, but Don’t Worry We all may outta here soon! Whoops!, Peak When something reaches its apex, there is only one way for it to go, such as Detroit; Southern Europe (incl. Cyprus) “Cyprus state broadcaster CyBC reported that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had proposed Cypriots lose 40 percent of their bank accounts.”; An Irish Idea Scroll down. They are taking the next step to bash the govt. / banxters’ austerity garbage; 1:41 clip “Zimbabwe Ben speaks to Congress.”; Obomba and GOP Steal from the elderly to pay for dubya’s wars (NWO); Abandon ship! GoM Who knew beforehand? One name is familiar; Inflation Calculator The changing face of a buck; Taxes, bailouts and class warfare That’s what TPTB want while they scoop the cream off the top.
*
3:11 clip “For those that have been following the war of words about Korea, plus Japan and China] the next few days may be interesting, to say the least”; Pedophilia Ummm, I don’t think so; Hungary Using tanks where four-wheel drives can’t go. Damn GW; Farmer Miles Most everyone has heard of Air Miles — this is a new take; Scorpion Wot’s in yer wallet (bag)? Karma has its own way of paying off debts and leveling the playing field; The Owelympiks Next in Rio, some house work has to be done first; Why Russia banned microwave ovens; Smothered in Chocolate All things considered, I would have put it to better use; A Complete Surveillance continent Via the ‘net; Rupert Murdoch New phone hacking allegations; Like robot, like human Except they don’t have strikes, children or washroom breaks; Cell Phone Towers Surprising what they are used for; Mother Nature is the real deal when it comes to weather forecasting, ‘quakes etc.; Guinness If water is not available, this is a fine substitute; Facebook or Hatebook? “Of course, if anyone posted “May all Jews die” to Facebook, the reaction from Facebook would be far different!” wrh.com.
#161 Realtor # 1
“….. don’t see many new listing for the first two weeks of march…….”
====================
Maybe not on the surface of your moon.
But back here on earth, in my ‘hood, the red dots are popping up on the MLS map like pimples on a prostitute’s……..well, you get the idea.
155 Shawn Allen
Cartels and monopolies are the result of the profit motive. Government regulation is necessary to create a market free of monopolies and other forms of organized rent-seeking. Why would a profit-seeking individual not join a monopoly or cartel if all they card about was maximum private gain. Maybe you should take a gander through that other work by Smith.
——————————————————————-
A monopoly can ONLY exist because of government intervention by granting unfair market advantage to selected companies or industries through subsidy and or special considerations. In a true free market any company that tries to “corner” a market and charge what the market will not bear would soon find themselves eaten up by competition. Any company that can actually have a monopoly is one that through extreme effort and diligent business practices can consistently provide the best product for the best price to the market. This is an incredibly difficult thing to do in practice. Any company that can do this deserves to be rewarded as being the best of the best and not demonized or even worse- cut to pieces by government for being successful. Capitalism is always getting a bad rap when in fact it is not even capitalism that is to blame. It is crony capitalism that is the problem. Worse yet is the name “crony capitalism”. Call it by it’s real name. It’s real name in practice is a soft form of fascism. It is antithetical to real capitalism.
Garth, you not responding in any way to my elaboration in #148 suggests you either are not so sure yourself that this outcome will not happen, or have nothing intelligent to say since you actually have not really thought things through. At this stage I am inclined to reject the latter, but the longer you remain silent the less credible you will become, at least to in my eyes. Unless, of course, you in fact are hoping for this scenario as a next step in he unfolding debacle, since it would drive up Canadian stock prices and greatly benefit canadian residents with plenty of liquidity as well as us foreign currency holdings – cheap canadian dollars, and a great opportunity to make money off of canadian stock in a tax efficient manner. Come to think of it, perhaps you are secretly very happy with F and co?
Have no idea what you are ranting about. — Garth
I sleep well…..
Canada’s future is in the hands of Garths ex -boss and then the torch passed onto Just-in Turdeau, Maggie’s son.
What could go wrong…???
PS Almost time to launch boat, someone turn up heat(not you Al Gore)
File this under..
“But I’m special.. because I was the Prime Minister of Canada for 4 months and a week. Besides.. I can’t be expected to actually read the contract I’ve signed.”
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Former+Campbell+sues+falling+vancouver+condo+market/8110518/story.html
Following up on #136 and #142, apparently the IMF does not see a further rate cut as idiotic…
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/14/imf-canada-interest-rates/
Stevie has a sleeve full of knives that he will shank the Big 5 with
Unless Harper wants to go down as the PM that totally collapsed the economy, he better stick those knives back in the drawer. After all, if the banks are attacked, they will simply stop writing new loans and renewing existing loans (40% of which have to be rolled on an overnight basis) and pay out their capital to shareholders as dividends.
Interesting article in the rainforest site
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/
Talks about seller VS Buyers.
With rents lowering and some desperate seller selling. But overall its been a standstill.
It mentions sellers has to be educated and they need to lower prices. What it doesn’t mention is about 30% of our GDP is base on real estate growth. With no houses moving, it only means one thing. No Sales, rising inventory and no need for construction, which means 30% of the people heading to lower wages or un-employment. And since most live from paycheck to paycheck. How much longer before the Mighty Banks Takes it Again.
Add that to the equation of sellers with people retiring and you have alot ot “POTENTIAL ENERGY” ready to release to fuel a huge downturn.
If you just want coffee, McD’s coffee is actually pretty good, certainly compared to Timmies, which is at best ok. I wouldn’t consider either one “dining”.
Re: #176 Mark on 03.16.13 at 8:07 pm
You’ll learn kid and soon.
#108 Shawn Allen
It is true that a monopoly or near-monopoly will be able to charge higher prices, but surely you are not suggesting there is insufficient competition in the Canadian construction/real estate vertical? It’s 25% of the Canadian economy, name some names that control more than 5% of it.
Your argument is a rather thinly veiled, and poorly supported, attempt to redirect attention. Prices are set by buyers. Buyers base their decision to buy and pay a certain price on their desire to pay the price, and ability to do so. The ability to pay is basically “affordability”, affected by such things as interest rates, credit qualification and downpayments, while the desire to buy can be up or down irrespective of affordability (ie, see US) and is driven by sentiment, emotions, and a spectrum of social inputs (expectations, peer/parental pressure, culture, etc).
Does the competition in the industry affect pricing? Of course. Is it a realistic explanation for high real estate prices in Canada? Doesn’t even make the top 10. You’re gonna have to do better than this. This is red herring, there are FAR bigger fish to fry and lower hanging fruit to pick before this gets on the map.
Greed (my view of it)
An emotional condition similar to fear
Opportunistic with an aberrant twist
The psychological trap of chasing wealth, power, control, status, adoration, acceptance
Feeling unfulfilled despite ample means
Hungry
Irrational pursuit of ever increasing profits
The mindset of never having enough
Soon to be categorized as a mental illness
Prognosis: Cannot end well for the individual.
Fall Out: The many end up with too little in order for the few to have far too much by any reasonable measure. It is an insane situation where each group views itself as not having enough.
I said that the Cyprus thing is a BIG story, I never said it would amount to much .http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21819990 Trial balloon or New World Order kind of thing?
#95 NoName on 03.16.13 at 10:02 am
Just got home Fromm sunny and worm Atlanta GA. Real estate is definitely picking up steam there ;) single digit increase year over year, trend is definitely there.
And peace of hwy real estate formerly known as hi-occupancy lane, is now express toll lane. I wander how long before “we” adopt same on our hwys…
http://i49.tinypic.com/104ncpx.jpg
………………………
A sis, hubby & young daughter lived in Apharetta 14+ yrs ago. Her hubby ‘pressured’ her to take a transfer. Financially, it was the worst decision they ever made. Loved their home & property – beautiful neighbourhood & good schools. Traffic to downtown & airport was crazy but no tolls then. IIRC, there were 6 or 8 lanes each way at the time. Found downtown Atlanta really small. Likely changed since then. At least I got to visit the Atlanta Botanical Gardens – top priority on my To See List.
If there was no real estate and construction depression in Canada I would be busy working on stairs and not on the computer all day and night.
Divide and Conquer !
And i think theirs is something else under this real estate manipulation around the world.
Boom and bust by design.
A very nice aphrodisiac for some influent people,will call it…Power.
I only go to restaurants where I am looking up at the menu. If I’m looking down at the menu, it’s going to be expensive.
We do the opposite when we go over the ditch to Niagara Falls/ Buffalo NY. Lower prices, better food and no HST. Olive Garden food for less than Swiss Chalet prices.
#185 SM,
The Doctor is in.
Wonder no more, my friend. Alcohol scews vision and perception, impairs judgment and reduces the suppression of libido. So you look good to – and only to – “stoned Chics”.
That’ll be 5 cents. Make that 10 because it’s Sunday and paying $20 to post drivel makes you an easy mark.
“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.” — Ayn Rand, “Atlas Shrugged”, 1957
#207 Devore,
yea, sure.
To me, the Cyprus bailout seems less about Cyprus and more about using a bizarre tactic for lowering the Euro…. Germany probably got fed up with Japan weakening the yen.
Also – Cyprus obviously doesn’t have oil fields or other resources to pawn off.
#208 – COHO – good one. So true.
If F’s mortgage rule changes were the pin that pricked the Canadian housing bubble, then HAM/Russian/Iranian cash isn’t driving as much of the market as some would have us believe…
Dubai is in the opposite situation – looking to cool the market and get rid of speculation, but can’t do it because 70% of the buyers use cash:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-14/dubai-real-estate-is-dominated-by-cash-buyers
Operation Red Spider- using insurers to launder money ?
Cobrapost Press Release
Mar 13, 2013
Cobrapost’s Shocking Mega Expose: Major Indian Private Sector Banks, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, Are Blatantly Running A Huge Nation-wide Money Laundering Racket New Delhi: A Cobrapost pan-India undercover investigation spanning several months, unearths a vast, nation-wide money laundering racket being run by HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis…
http://www.cobrapost.com/index.php/news-detail?nid=138&cid=7
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/cobrapost-sting-hdfc-bank-to-conduct-forensic-audit/1089064/
The top private banks and various investigating agencies, including the regulator Reserve Bank of India are probing whether the banks and their staff helped people evade taxes, siphon off funds and help launder money.
#205 – Devore – well, there’s one we agree on. It is far better coffee than Timmies. Amazing how conditioned people have become to the Timmies delusion. This would make a good study on herd mentality.
Anybody have some good charts showing the time lag in the US between sales falling and prices falling? I found some old WSJ charts that seem to indicate a 12 month delay. Sales peaked in April 2006 and prices started falling April 2007. If the GTA follows a similar cause-effect pattern, prices here should start to fall noticeably in the next 30 – 60 days.
#174 Good Authority on 03.16.13 at 8:03 pm
“My goodness. Even Garth sitting on his mega gains has to be nervous with the EU banksters confiscating private savings in Cyprus! Who is next?
Savers beware, the gloves are off.
My fancy coloured diamonds just went up a full 20% just this weekend alone.”
——————————————————————–
The EU is not interested in bailing out the Russian Mob’s money that is hidden in various Cyprus Banks.
Beside’s, the Cyprus economy is .02% of the EU.
Also, regular citizens will be fully compensated
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/17/cyprus-savings-levy-uk-compensate
If the parliament does not approve the deposits haircut on Monday the big story will become a big deal.
Two of the mayor banks in Cyprus would fail (as per their president’s words) and with the announced levy/tax if the parliament rejects the ‘tax’ there would be huge bank runs….
The failure of the banks might spread into the EU zone…
So this could be a spark the ignites the charge.
@ “Let’s not get carried away. There will be no confiscation in Canada or the US. — Garth”
I’m sure the Cypriots were saying the same thing about Cyprus until yesterday.
Cyprus is the size of Edmonton. — Garth
re:cyprus
call it tax, confiscation- it’s the same thing
when Mullroney’s GST came in, financial services were exempt. Why? Because bank ‘fees’ were implemented at around the same time and the sheeple might notice- tax on tax (add bank created inflation and U have tax on tax on tax). Now they can float the HST (Harper Sales Tax) on bank fees as being ‘fair’ ha ha ha
HST on financial transactions was rejected because of complexity of compliance and the competitive disadvantage it would place our FIs in. — Garth
#203 Mark: “Unless Harper wants to go down as the PM that totally collapsed the economy….”
********************
Well, he DID say we wouldn’t recognize the country when he gets thru with it….
#150 Macrath on 03.16.13 at 5:06 pm
#131 EIT
“Flat out asset seizures of depositors. It should be an interesting week in the euro zone. Europeans are going to freak out.”
______________
What do you think that ‘forced’ low interest rates are doing to our own depositors?
It’s just as bad if not worse.
So if a Cypriot had the contrarian balls to invest in European stock markets when the Greek crisis hit, he would be up about 30%. Playing it ‘safe’ in a bank savings account, he’s probably down 8%.
Interesting times.
Cyprus is the size of Edmonton. — Garth
================================
Yeah and a better hockey team too.
#224
Not private citizens. Only military and civil service. Says so in the headline.
I have a live streaming link for world markets as they open tonight, so will be watching asia first, and you can hook into it with Yahoo Finance called major world indices.
199 Small Town Steve
I agree with part of what you are saying. The state can create a fairly anti-competitive situation allowing some large players in a market to dominate it through a lack of regulation or a purposeful implementation that would favour them. For instance, look at the trade tariffs the USA imposed to protect their infant industries during the nineteenth century. However, the rest of what you wrote reminds me of what I read out of an econ 110.6 textbook fifteen years ago. State power also has a means to create and maintain free, open and competitve markets via intervention. Without at least a bit of competition law, we would soon see what a jungle really looks like (actually, we are right now!). Market efficacy rests on state power to a certain extent. Polyani makes alot of this clear; or, check out Teddy Roosevelt’s Sherman anti-trust legislation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competition_law
Government intervention does not always lead to fascism or crony capitalism, neither of which I support in the least.
Lightweights and heavyweights. Everybody has an opinion. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/03/17/links-17-march-cyprus-bailout-and-predictions-of-disaster/
#229 Eaglebay – Parksville on 03.17.13 at 10:39 am
It’s easier to deal with low interest rates, then it is to deal with someone blatantly stealing your money. Especially when the thief is the government who is supposed to be your recourse in the event of a crime. This is just an experiment. They are releasing a balloon to see where the wind takes it. I’m doubtful this is an attack on Russian ex-KGB stashes of money. I mean, at one point it just becomes easier to start whacking people, right? We shall see…
Cyprus Bank Holiday Extended Through Tuesday As Confusion Spreads
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-17/cyprus-bank-holiday-extended-through-tuesday-confusion-spreads
QUOTE:
For those who read the previous article on the topic of last minute chaos and confusion in Cyprus, and Europe, it will come as no surprise that the previously scheduled Monday bank holiday (aka Green Monday) has been extended into Tuesday. So prepare to not be surprised.
From Kathimerini:
The Cypriot cabinet has declared Tuesday a bank holiday, for fear of capital flight, and this may even be stretched to Wednesday, as depositors are certain to withdraw huge sums from the Cypriot banks after the haircut imposed.
Nicosia postponed from Sunday to Monday the tabling in Parliament of the bill including the measures for the Cypriot bailout – including a bank account haircut and a tax hike on interest and corporate earnings – but the European Central Bank insists on a rapid voting because there are already signs a domino effect will follow across European lenders and markets from Monday.
There is genuine fear of market unrest on Monday morning when stocks may crumble in the eurozone and bank accounts in other southern European bank may suffer.
Skai radio reported on Sunday that the Bank of Greece has sent between 4 and 5 billion euros to Cyprus in order to help Cypriot banks respond to cash requirements by their clients.
============================
Can’t say this wasn’t predictable.
I just discovered that my local bank has a product for people worried about confiscatory government policies, fractional reserve banking and negative real interest rates. For a fee, the bank will hold your assets, not tell the government about them, and not lend them out, rehypothecate them or commingle them with other bank holdings. The fee is even tax deductible!
At my bank, they refer to it as a “Safety Deposit Box.” Ask for it by name.
WHAT CAUSES HIGH HOUSE COSTS?
Devore at 208 explains
“Prices are set by buyers” and suggests that lack of competition in a fragmented construction market is not the cause.
******************************************
Firstly, this is about the second time in a week that someone has claimed that the basic law of price being set by the intersection of the Supply and Demand curves has been repealed.
Of course home prices are affected by BOTH the ability to pay and the COST of construction.
I started out my question at 38 asking for enlightenment.
Certainly many aspects of the construction market are competitive but there may be some that are not. And perhaps our fragmented building industry is inefficient.
If I was a home builder or land developer I’d worry a bit if big American companies were allowed to come into Canada perhaps with U.S. workers too. It’s called free trade. Young home buyers would welcome it.
I sure don’t know all the reasons for high costs to construct a house but I think it is an industry that is ripe for game-changing moves to reduce costs substantially.
Just checked my email – here’s Garth on this week’s edition of the suspect ‘Howe Street’ radio show.
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2013/03/this-week-in-money-75/?
◾Garth Turner — Real Estate.
◾Mike Swanson — US market.
◾Jeff Berwick — Bitcoin.
#214 Ret: “Olive Garden food for less than Swiss Chalet prices.”
*****************
Swiss Chalet is a joke. Their 2 for 1 specials for $14.95 wind up costing $40 because of the ‘sides’ including salads, slivers of pie for $4.95.
Bank of England warned this week, the legacy of the private equity boom poses a threat to financial stability
– £160billion of leveraged loans maturing from last year onwards involve so called ‘bullet repayment’ where the principal is only paid off when they mature.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2294108/SUNDERLAND-SATURDAY-Damaging-legacy-private-equity.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
sale and leaseback
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Cross_Healthcare_(United_Kingdom)
=
No sick pay, no maternity pay: Chancellor targets employers’ tax loophole that damages teachers’ and nurses rights (17 Mar 2013)
offshore payroll services in tax havens
tax loophole which allows firms to dodge around £100 million a year in National Insurance will be closed in the Budget, it was announced. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said it would target the use of such as Jersey and Guernsey. Around 100,000 employees – mostly teachers, nurses and oil and gas workers – are believed to be paid in that way and could be unknowingly ineligible for statutory sick pay.
===========================
“Cheap debt is the rocket fuel.”
Private equity firms have increasingly joined together to acquire target companies (called “club deals”). In 2007, there were 28 club deals, totaling about $217 billion in value. Club deals could reduce or increase the number of firms bidding on a target company and, thus, affect competition. …
e.g. siphoned billions from the companies via special dividends prior to IPO. “liquidity recapitalization,” better known as “debt for dividends. Payment in kind PIK-toggle bonds -pre-crisis instrument when private equity sponsors used them for aggressive recaps
report
http://www.gao.gov/assets/290/280142.pdf
#238 Ralph: “I just discovered that my local bank has a product for people worried about confiscatory government policies….”
****************************
Really? In the event of a death, that safety security box is immediately frozen…by the feds.
#35 “I don’t think the tech sector will be the headline sector this time around, …”
Hold on a little longer, we’re working on it :).
As for the gold sector, I’d wait a little further into the correction. Assuming that gold mining stocks are a leading indicator, ABX in particular has not shown particular bullish signs. This maybe a buying opportunity, or a falling knife. Ironically, this is perfect territory to generate yield using options on these stocks…
#30 A little cynical here. Debt is needed for an economy to function, but an over-indebted government maybe an issue. I have family who experienced similar things in Sweden when their bubble popped a while back. Many people are unaware how deep the pockets of the government are in supporting supposedly privately owned corporations in the automotive-, defence-, and tech- sectors. The handouts to new start-ups through government initiatives are also quite sizable. If these taps stop, it might send some nasty shock-waves through your local community.
If my research budget get’s cut due to austerity measures of the crown, I’ll probably open my own Schnaps still (even though this will involve quite a bit of paperwork in Canada), home-brew supplies store, or pawn shop. People in financial distress make up excellent clients. I bet this is also a scenario that Brad Lamb and the likes are aiming for, when they will consult people on RE fire-sales over the next few months. I’d lack patience for debt-counselling and would be calling potential clients with names that should not be on record here…
#238 Ralph: “The fee is even tax deductible!”
****************
Well then, offhand, I’d say the government most certainly does know about your safety security box….
#421 Daisy Mae – I loved my Swiss Chalet on Bloor just west of Avenue Road and they closed it down as the price was right, and Swiss Chalet is no bargain anymore, so went to the Olive Garden on occassion for the unlimited salad; they closed down too. The best meal in town is nowhere in sight on the cheap except for one place called Masters Buffeteria on Bloor just east of Spadina.
The government is ever so clever when it comes to gleaning info from the taxpayers…well, perhaps, ‘sneaky’ would be a better description.
Give us deductions for anything/everything and we’ll apply for them. The government then has all the info they want/need. LOL
#243 Daisy Mae – there is a way of getting around a safety deposit box by appointing a trusted 3rd party on the card who has a key. By the time the bank knows I have kicked the bucket, all my gold bars will be gone, but to make things look good will leave a few rolls of pennies, and some mint sets with a small worthless stamp album together with stock certificates given to me by my daddy that are worthless. :)
Here is why Cyprus is important…..
It’s the size of Edmonton? That’s your answer? Really?
“Cyprus may be one of the eurozone’s tiniest economies – its third smallest – but for the next 48 hours or so, it may be the single currency area’s most important.
The point is that there could be serious repercussions for other financially over-stretched economies, such as Spain’s and Italy’s, from the nature of Cyprus’s 10bn-euro (£8.7bn) bailout – which includes, for the first time in any eurozone rescue, losses imposed directly on depositors in banks.
These losses, running to almost 6bn euros, stem from an emergency levy of 9.9% on bank deposits over 100,000 euros (£86,600) and 6.75% below that.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21812853
The implications among the chicken littles on this blog was that deposits here could be threatened. Absurd. — Garth
You really think this is a non event Garth?
“ATHENS — In a move that could set off new fears of contagion across the euro zone, anxious depositors drained cash from automated teller machines in Cyprus on Saturday, hours after European officials in Brussels required that part of a new 10 billion euro bailout be paid for directly from the bank accounts of ordinary savers.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/business/global/facing-bailout-tax-cypriots-try-to-get-cash-out-of-banks.html?_r=2&
For Canadian depositors, of course. — Garth
#209 coho
Great reply! Thanks !
#248 Old Man: “….appointing a trusted 3rd party on the card who has a key. By the time the bank knows I have kicked the bucket, all my gold bars will be gone…”
********************
Do your heirs have documented proof these gold bars exist? Or…might they STILL go ‘missing’? Yikes! We are, or will become, a nation of paranoids.
“It’s a great life if we don’t weaken…” LOL
#238 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.17.13 at 12:26 pm
I too have a self- directed device…its called middle- finger around trigger and their choice of:
–PRESS ONE for “hasta la vista ” or
-PRESS TWO for ” say hello to my little friend”.
Amigos:
You don’t have to go to Cyprus to see confiscation. Just check out Town of Milton Council March 18. There comprehensive zoning by-law placing Natural Heritage Designation on over 20,000 acres of rural lands comes to Council for discussion. This by-law stops the building of any new structures or the increase of building size. Farms can not reintroduce livestock if the farm is ever vacated. This is the implementation of the Region of Haltons Natural Heritage Designation.
http://webaps.halton.ca/news/MediaShow.cfm?MediaID=2009-12-17-10-54-07
#252 Daisy Mae – I have no human heirs in life, so all I have will go via a Trust Will to organizations to help those less fortunate in life including one that needs a last wish for children, so to scoop my box at the bank for a third party who has been loyal is not a problem.
#238 Ralph . I may be off the time, but I believe Pres. Roosevelt did something to the price of gold. People went to their safety deposit boxes and the IRA was there writing everything down in the box. Don’t trust the GOVERNMENT ever!!!!
I love your name. — Garth
#254 COW MAN on 03.17.13 at 3:04 pm
See if your Local Gov’t belongs to this
http://www.icleicanada.org/
In essence, we are being overtaken by a communistic approach. We are being dictated to. Many Gov’ts have bought into this control mantra and tried to sugar coat it
under the “environmental boogeymen”. Things like Smart Growth etc.
What your link submits is a local version of Agenda 21 , a UN initiative. Long Story short….they wish to force us into crowded cities and force us off the land. The last thing they want is to see is any vestiges of off -grid independence.
The loonie Lefties(redundant) can’t see the noose being slipped around. As I said before, you, as a human , are being FARMED, which also means you are under someone elses control.
YAHOO POLL
Vote View Results »
33,011 votes Canadian housing sales plummet »
Will Canada have a U.S.-style housing crash?
Yes, I think it’s inevitable 28%
No, our economy is different 57%
I’m not sure 16%
Hi Garth. What if it were a remote possibility in Canada? How would you prepare ahead of time?
Wouldn’t this topic make a fascinating change of pace for your Blog?
So would angioplasty. — Garth
Oh, by “it” I meant the Cyprus situation.
#257 Dr. Hoof-Hearted,
noise from the irremedially wrong Right.
#232 rosie “moving backwards” on 03.17.13 at 11:25 am
“#224
Not private citizens. Only military and civil service. Says so in the headline.”
——————————————————————-
That was exactly my point.
90% of the deposits belong to the Russians, the remainder belongs to the Army and the Civil Service. :-)
It is not the magnitude of the events in Cyprus.
It is the trust in the governments and banks being tested.
I hope the can quickly reverse that idiotic measure, it concerns the poultry sum of 7 bln $.
Will that return the trust?
Not mine for sure.
#261 Herb on 03.17.13 at 4:08 pm
Yes No and Maybe
Any idea why the bond holders of the banks never take a haircut but the depositors now do in Cyprus?
Cypriot bondholders will have their securities traded for equity. Their hit is far larger. — Garth
Sir Garth: No mention of the Cyproit event on BNN. Is this so us little people can be last to the table and find that supper is over? Not surprising!!
#259 PTDBD
Garth covered the possible doomsday scenario with his book “After The Crash”
imagine !
– cancellation of most credit cards, balances becoming demand loans
– GM going under (this time for good)
– millions of boomers retiring into economic chaos
– University grads with no job prospects and average debt of 26k
A must have book for every blog dog`s emergency kit.
NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) – Cyprus’ parliament on Sunday postponed a debate and vote on a controversial levy on all bank deposits that the cash-strapped country’s creditors had demanded in exchange for (EURO)10 billion ($13 billion) in rescue money.
The vote, which had been expected later Sunday, has been pushed back to Monday afternoon, parliamentary official Antonis Koutalianos said.
The announcement set off an immediate scramble among top European officials, with reports that the European Central Bank was pressuring Cypriot authorities to hold the vote without delay.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130317/DA52S69O2.html
whoops! Cyprus
Belive it or not, the media chage their title: “Real Estate market outlook dims as home sales plunge” to the decidedly neutral “Clouds gather over Canadian housing market”
They(msn) are so finish.
#269 Cyprus issue not voted on yet on 03.17.13 at 5:44 pm
whoops! Cyprus.
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Exactly. People have already tossed the baby out with the bath water. Sheeesh.
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=12670-1
What say you, blog dawgs?
#272 maxx on 03.17.13 at 6:01 pm
Stock markets are high, and billionaires are disciplined diversified investors reaping what they sowed. Like Garth always explains.
Cyprus vote may be delayed but the damage is done. If no measures are taken right now, the populace has seen what can happen and will not let their savings sit idle.
The only hope is for a Bernanke print bailout. The irony is that this would lead to the same result…loss of purchasing power.
Central Bankers have destroyed their main duty….to protect the full faith and credit of their currency. This is what is at stake. Cyprus may be small, but the issue of trust in the Banks is world wide.
#259PTDBD: “What if it were a remote possibility in Canada? How would you prepare ahead of time?
Wouldn’t this topic make a fascinating change of pace for your Blog?
So would angioplasty. — Garth
#260PTDBD: “Oh, by “it” I meant the Cyprus situation.”
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Here in Canada, I think we’re too big to fail. Alot has happened in the past few years, granted — but large bank failures won’t be one of them. If Cyprus is the size of Edmonton, it’s small potatoes. Vunerable.
#273 EIT on 03.17.13 at 6:45 pm
“sowed” being the operative word.
#276 maxx on 03.17.13 at 8:37 pm
Those billionaires are busy bees, I’m sure they sow lots.
#264 Dr. Hoof-Hearted,
good answer. I like that.