“I’ve been going through some first time home owners remorse over the last couple of months,” says Heather, “and a friend suggested I reach out to you.”

Yeah, you guessed it. Heather went condo. Bought in a trendy Toronto hood almost a year ago now. Brand new building. No firm idea of condo fees or taxes.

“I was advised that the estimates for these should be pretty accurate when the building registered and didn’t give it too much of a second thought. I was also advised that condo prices generally went up after registration, so it was a good time to make the investment and would likely see a return within the next few months once the building registered. We negotiated the sale and away we went.”

In case any hormonal property virgins are reading this (you know who you are), pay attention. Never buy into an unregistered building. Never trust a salesguy’s guesstimate of costs. Never sign a contract where costs are open-ended. Never buy without a lawyer. And, while we’re at it, don’t buy a condo in Toronto.

“For the next few months I paid a ghost mortgage until the building registered. And that’s when I felt the BOOM. When I went to sign the paperwork with my lawyer he explained to me that maintenance fees would actually be closer to 500/month, an increase of 30% from the estimate.  A few months later, I received a notice that my taxes were also going to be a fair amount more based on my assessed property value. At the end of the day, I’m spending over $2,150 to maintain a 690 foot box. Had I been aware of the actual numbers or the fact that estimates are almost always way under actuals, I would not have made this purchase.”

By the way, the same unit rents for about $1,750, with no downpayment required, no closing costs, no land transfer tax and no CMHC premium – all of which amount to just under $34,000 on a $350,000 condo with 5% down.

“To make matters worse,” she says, “I’ve been keeping my eye on recent sales in the building and the general area since the sale closed to make sure that I was seeing positive increases post registration. Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case. Condo prices in my building seem to have remained flat and in some cases even decreased. Furthermore, building in the area has accelerated to the point where I am now concerned about over saturation, and a dropping condo market over the next couple of years.”

Heather’s learning fast. There are 147 condo buildings under construction in Toronto, and over 21,000 new and vacant units on the market. In total, more than 50,000 condos are in the development, marketing or building phase. And there are another 6,300 resale condos currently for sale in the GTA.

And how many new units sold last month? Just over 680 – a 40% drop from two years ago.

“So here’s my question: Am I better to look into selling privately (screw the agents) and get someone to assume my mortgage, or worst case scenario selling and assuming the loss now. Or, do I hold onto it and hope prices increase enough over the next 5 years to make my rather high monthly payments worth it?”

Are you sitting, kid? Good. This is ugly. First, trying to FSBO your unit is a non-starter. With six thousand condos for sale on MLS alone, plus thousands more being flogged on Kijiji, Craigslist and the walls of the women’s washroom at Union Station, you need all the marketing firepower you can get. Find an experienced agent who knows the building and the area, and who’s actually selling units and has a network of people looking. Hire him.

Second, nobody’s going to assume your mortgage. Not when they can get a fresh, steaming new one at a rate lower than yours (or at least equal to it). Fixed-rate, five-year money can now be had for 2.95%, and locked-in three year loans for half a point less. No, if you sell you’ll have to add a mortgage break fee to the commission. And, yes, that means you’ll have to bring a cheque to the closing.

Hang on for five years? Another bad idea. Spend another $24,000 premium over what the renter next door is shelling out, then try to sell a well-used, 690-foot space in a five-year-old building, in flooded market for what you spent in 2012 at a time when mortgage rates will likely be double? Sweetie, you’ve been listening to Brad Lamb again.

Speaking of which, a trusted friend went to Mr. Lamb’s ritzy Toronto seminar a few nights ago (I’d have gone, but there’s a contract out on me). This guy is a long-time condo-owner, runs a condo board and even consults other condo corporations. He’s also urbane, wise and accomplished.

I thought you might be interested in his observations. You too, Heather.

Crowd of about 300 was composed 15 percent wrinklies, 75 percent downtown hipsters, and 10 percent groupies from his office.

The statements and projections he made were shockingly vacuous and clearly designed to channel people into condo box speculation, typically in his own upcoming developments (a fact he was not ashamed to state). He obviously has a big pipeline to fill in his Lamb Development Corp. projects.

brad  Basically he was promoting a 25 year plan that anyone can follow, to become a real estate multi-millionaire by flipping debt in multiple condo units and signing up reliable, trouble-free tenants. He heavily emphasized the advantages (generally all false) of only buying brand new developments. While everyone knows that older established buildings have greater inherent value and stable fees. His self-interest in this market fallacy was nakedly obvious.

He never once mentioned anything about the costs of carrying debt. All projections are based on continued long term historic low rates (plus perhaps a one percent increase in middle term). He shows tables showing 30-year appreciation of real estate, but not the 30-year averages of mortgage interest rates.

He heavily emphasized the word ‘profit’ all the time, but none of the tables showed anything about carrying costs or taxes. His idea of profit is always fantasy-world gross amounts, not net.

And worst of all, sprinkled the F-bomb word (and variations thereof) plus the BS word about 18 times by my count. The whole 90 minutes was a profanity-laced intimidation of hapless audience listeners. He seems to think that coarse language for shock value somehow builds authority. Witnessing this was actually quite disturbing, the number of ways he laced the talk with such vulgar comments.

He’s a real piece of work.


#1 dave on 03.01.13 at 9:56 pm


#2 guelphstudent on 03.01.13 at 10:02 pm

Toronto real estate crashed by over 40% during last bubble. Downtown condos crashed even more. This is a visualized bloodbath of how Toronto housing crashed during last bubble by neighborhood scroll down for graphs. Downtown Toronto is still way below the peak of 1989 adjusted for inflation and the prices are already declining. This won’t end well.

#3 Sebee on 03.01.13 at 10:07 pm

Did I just read a blog promoting services of the Lamb like creature to save the Virgins?

I guess the Lamb slays the virgins on the way in and on the way out. And gets 5% on each slay. Beats pulling teeth I must admit.

#4 futureexpatriate on 03.01.13 at 10:09 pm

Variations on the f-word?

#5 Richard and Zeus on 03.01.13 at 10:13 pm


#6 unbelieveable on 03.01.13 at 10:13 pm

Mid Vancouver Island real estate is crashing.
So many listings have been reduced 4-5 times and over $100,000 in price reductions, and still no greater fools buying.
Nanaimo to Courtney is kapoot!
Someone turn out the lights and end their misery.
This is not ending well!

#7 Renters Revenge on 03.01.13 at 10:15 pm

“This is not ending well!”
You thought it would?

#8 mark on 03.01.13 at 10:16 pm

Nothing worse than hearing of old people penned into sales seminars. Hipsters, well they deserve it.

Lamb’s the type of guy you’d love to hit with a right cross – if you could actually reach his chin.

#9 Sebee on 03.01.13 at 10:16 pm

Just googled Brad Lamb to see if he still sells units for virgins in distress or is just a builder. Something funny happened when I googled him. Next to his picture and detas of Queen’s education was this:

People also search for: Garth Turner, Harry …

Yin and Yang I guess.

#10 Mixed Bag on 03.01.13 at 10:16 pm

Condo marketing has gotten very good. Is this the current day’s equivalent of the 70’s buying land in Florida?

I remember going to a number of pre-build condo project sales. There’s a lot of marketing psychology going on. From the planted buyers (wasn’t aware of that then, but something didn’t feel right then, as if I didn’t want to be neighbours with those people). To the subtle attitude from the sales people that you’re supposed to think these prices are normal (and if you don’t, you’re somehow lesser). To the whole setup, like you’re buying candy from a store (does anyone buy a resale residence without a lawyer or agent? So why do it differently with new builds?) It always struck me as odd how the new build showrooms were so casual about it all… to get the buyer to relax their guard. A lot of psychology at play against you, to take advantage of you, the buyer.

#11 PermaBear on 03.01.13 at 10:17 pm

Another inch of rain here in Raincouver overnight and then it’ll get back to regular drizzle….wanna buy a condo?

#12 DJB on 03.01.13 at 10:24 pm

I love when newbie investors use the word “hope” when they pull the trigger on buying.

#13 Richard and Zeus on 03.01.13 at 10:25 pm

okay…….so Dave is cool?

#14 Harvard Grad on 03.01.13 at 10:28 pm

touching picture G, sad to think that dog is waiting beside his deceased master. Funny how animals give so much and expect nothing but a warm smile in return.

Love him or hate him – Brad Lamb does have the goods, he can sell a purple snowcone to a Inuit with white gloves. I’ve personally met the man – you can sense his drive and passion. Most should be aware that he is a professional at what he does – and the weak minded will always fall prey to his way of thinking. When I was in highschool – I worked part-time at Foot Locker.

I knew squat about shoes or proper fit or uses, but I had the ability to talk on the fly – like an actor, I could think of bs that at times almost convinced myself of my own bs. People bought into my explanations, very few questioned it – when someone who had a understanding of a product and challenged me on a fact – I held steady, agreed to a point at what they wanted to hear but kept to my guns and still sold the wrong product.

People are like clay, if you can convince them that you are an artist, they will let you mold them in your way of thinking!

#15 Richard and Zeus on 03.01.13 at 10:31 pm

Just drove by the farm I sold on Raincouver Island today. Hope they are enjoying the wet rain and mud that goes with it. Looks like they are already starting the renos……putting in large doors in the 14 ft free standing garage.

Other farms are still for sale that were for sale a year before mine. But I listened to Garth. I sold it for what the market would bear. I suspect that 8 months later…..that amount is now less. Too bad for the other farms asking close to a million for rain and mud. Lots of luck to you people in Cedar and surrounding Nanaimo.

#16 Robbie on 03.01.13 at 10:31 pm

Well, I was going to sit on my computer, refreshing constantly, so that I could claim “first” on Garth’s blog…..but then I realized I had a life so instead I had a glass of wine by the warmth of the wood stove and now I’m heading out to the opening of the Salt Spring Film Festival. In a driving rain, of course, but that’s the “Wet Coast”…at least I don’t have to shovel snow! By the way……daffodils are in bloom!

#17 Mixed Bag on 03.01.13 at 10:34 pm

Now I put my finger on it. Those showrooms, where you’re making the biggest purchase of your life, the salespeople should be courting you, right? Instead, you’re shuffling around, made to feel small, so damn, you better do something about it, keep up. Instead of a sales person catering to you, you’re corralled to compete with the rest of the cattle in the sales centre pen, to be shot between the eyes, I mean, to buy a condo off plan.

#18 Joseph J. Roy on 03.01.13 at 10:37 pm

And he is expending to Calgary!

“Lamb said of his decision to expand out West: “Calgary’s a city that’s going to be in great shape for the next hundred years. They’ve got oil. Over the long term, oil is only going to get more expensive and scarce. That part of the world has a ton of it and that means Calgary will prosper.”


His current project is the 6th and tenth:

Unfortunately, for Mr Lamb, there is a bottle Depot beside his “Grand Plan” and he plans and putting them out of business :

“People can’t be so narrow-minded to believe that a business that makes its money from redeeming bottles is going to have the economic strength to stay in an area where there’s a $100-million building going in next door, there’s a $100-million office building going one block east, and there’s about a $1-billion development across the street,” Lamb said.


He is a real piece of work!

#19 Smoking Man on 03.01.13 at 10:39 pm

Ok Heather you got your self in a bit of a box, pun intended.

Put the entrupunor hat on and make more loot….. Cause if you don’t might as well pick up the loose change don’t bother to take off the stelletos, you’re screwed, condos in Toronto, doomed.

Now if your university educted your behind the 8 ball, but it’s your lucky day, If you follow my instructions.

All your loot is tied up, can’t really do shit… Everybody body and there brother trying to rent out condos……

Hum, let me think……….. Got it……

Become a brothel owner…. Go on back page call up all the downtown hookers, and rent your place out at a daily rate….. Paid up front, and the beauty thing, CASH, how will CRA find out…… Just charge few bucks cheaper than the nearest hotel….. I’m a genius……

With the Smoking Man, you’re richer than you think…

#20 Paul on 03.01.13 at 10:41 pm

1rst showing of the house we are in tomorrow after 2 weeks on the market.

#21 AK on 03.01.13 at 10:41 pm

#1 dave on 03.01.13 at 9:56 pm


Here is a song dedicated to all the Firsts….

#22 espressobob on 03.01.13 at 10:44 pm

Brad Lamb’s motto,

If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle em with BS!

#23 TurnerNation on 03.01.13 at 10:46 pm

“…walls of the women’s washroom at Union Station.”

Track 6ers’?

Hey ozy – Toronto will soon be home to a million millionaires! Just buy a kando in Kanada they say. Or two.

#24 45north on 03.01.13 at 10:52 pm

Am I better selling and assuming the loss now.

Let’s say that she could sell for 5% off purchase price – $332,000. She would still have to pay the 6% sales commission – $19,950. She would have to write a cheque for $19,500 to sell her condo.

#25 on 03.01.13 at 10:53 pm

Hey 2 guelphstudent, please relink , I want to see those charts of Toronto real estate prices.

#26 Mocha on 03.01.13 at 10:54 pm

Yay…! Finally some fresh Lamb Bashing!

#27 Bottoms_Up on 03.01.13 at 10:56 pm

Sounds like a time share ‘hard sell’. Hope the freebies were worth it.

#28 Bottoms_Up on 03.01.13 at 10:59 pm

#4 futureexpatriate on 03.01.13 at 10:09 pm
“Farging icehole”

#29 Devore on 03.01.13 at 11:02 pm

No firm idea of condo fees or taxes.

“I was advised that the estimates for these should be pretty accurate when the building registered and didn’t give it too much of a second thought.

The minimum of research, Googling some condo information, will quickly reveal the #1 “complaint” of pre-construction condo buyers is the maintenance fees go way up from what they were told. Without exception. It would be interesting to see one person say their fees did not go up in the first couple of years, once the developer sold all his units and punted off management to the condo board and manager.

Condo fees are always represented very low, to suck in ignorant buyers like Heather.

#30 Notta Sheeple on 03.01.13 at 11:08 pm

#14Harvard Grad on 03.01.13 at 10:28 pm

“…….Most should be aware that he is a professional at what he does – and the weak minded will always fall prey to his way of thinking……”

Professional? Hardly…

Unless Webster has modified the definition to include hairless, market-manipulating, fear-mongering, deceitful, pump-and-dump, neck-tied land pimps, whose sole bottom-feeding, parasitic, guiltless existence is based upon sucking the life equity from people’s pockets.

Speaking of hairless, is that the front of the sheep or the back? I can’t tell.

#31 Ford Prefect on 03.01.13 at 11:13 pm

#6 Unbelievable: Central Vancouver Island is kaput is almost an understatement. Comox Valley: MLS Inventory, 874. February sales, 36. MOI, 24.4. This is a total wipe out.

#32 Freebird on 03.01.13 at 11:13 pm

HGTV’s Scott McGilvray who now is the build wealth through (investment) real estate (aka mortgage/ HELOC salesman) front man for CIBC also conveniently leaves out financial details such as carrying costs, insurance, taxes etc. – not to mention the need to have emergency funds of at least 6 mths or more put aside in case of unexpected vacancies, maintenance and so on – when showing his numbers on his new show and or on various Candian daytime talk shows. He also doesn’t say where or how the new homeowners/ landlords are financing the extensive renos he carried out or the interest rate. And just like the Housen Hunter shows, the buyers on the show are probably required to have already closed on a deal before they are chosen to ensure a positive outcome and then proceed to act as if they are looking at houses, including the one they’ve already purchased. Property Brothers (buy a house and invest in a huge reno up front for your dream home and save money!) is probably the same script.

I guess shows like these keep the banks, contractors and stores in business. But I do cringe when I watch young Canadians on these shows sinking so much money into real estate and believing either they are saving money by simply not buying a more expensive pre done house or that they are going to become wealthy by taking their new rental cheques to the bank! Too bad they didn’t this blog and other sources first. Good luck to them all!

#33 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.01.13 at 11:17 pm


Don’t ever buy in a place with a sh*tty hockey team.

Is that Bibi Netenyahu’s head on the sheep?

#34 TRT on 03.01.13 at 11:17 pm

haven’t been here in a while… still all the pessimism.

FYI, 10 year fixed rate at 3.49% today. Only for those that live in reality! Not for those that think a market crash is imminent–> not with these rates and population growth!

see you in 8 weeks.

#35 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.01.13 at 11:21 pm


Do you think we can enter an IKEA meatball in the Kentucky Derby ?

#36 The Man From Nantucket on 03.01.13 at 11:45 pm

#29 Devore on 03.01.13 at 11:02 pm
…………….Condo fees are always represented very low, to suck in ignorant buyers like Heather.

I think they recently published a list of the top 10 lies

“Real estate always appreciates” and “the condo fees won’t increase for years” are right up there with:

-The cheque is in the mail,
-I’ll call you tomorrow

#37 EIT on 03.01.13 at 11:46 pm

Remember, no such thing as a stupid question, only stupid people.

#38 jim on 03.02.13 at 12:00 am

How can anyone sign up for hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt without doing some basic research? (e.g., the vacuous Heather and her failure to scout out condo fees or market conditions). I wouldn’t buy a car without doing research, let alone a 500k ‘home’.

Stupid gets what stupid deserves.

#39 richard on 03.02.13 at 12:03 am

#16 Robbie on 03.01.13 at 10:31 pm
Well, I was going to sit on my computer, refreshing constantly, so that I could claim “first” on Garth’s blog…..but then I realized I had a life so instead I had a glass of wine by the warmth of the wood stove and now I’m heading out to the opening of the Salt Spring Film Festival. In a driving rain, of course, but that’s the “Wet Coast”…at least I don’t have to shovel snow! By the way……daffodils are in bloom!

You could have staid in your house cleaning mould!!!

#40 Popeye the sailor man on 03.02.13 at 12:05 am

My Victoria Condo in 1993 had correct managment fees with in 5% of est. We later let go the managment company to save money that was set up in Vancouver(?). The strata was well run and we managed ourselfs. I t worked fine for the 7 years I was there.

On the down side the Condo @ $136,000 in 1993 was only worth $105-108,000 Equal to our Mortgage when I signed over to the wife. No equity for our 7 years in the condo.

#41 Raj on 03.02.13 at 12:06 am

Where in toronto,may be you are in a good location where lot of rich immigrant want to live or may be people don’t want to commute and dying to live in your condo. May be real estate never goes down, it’s up from last 12 years

#42 Descendant of Cedar Farmers on 03.02.13 at 12:08 am

15 R & Z – why did you buy the farm in the first place?

#43 Mr Buyer on 03.02.13 at 12:12 am

#2 guelphstudent on 03.01.13 at 10:02 pm
Toronto real estate crashed by over 40% during last bubble.
There was no last bubble. This is historic not cyclic.

#44 Dan on 03.02.13 at 12:13 am

A FB exchange from Calgary I’m sure you’ll enjoy, in response to a DT’er who loves his situation:

DB: Its the reason you can go on vacation rather than spending your money on commuting and a 3 bedroom money pit in the burbs Denika. The price of a garage and itty-bitty yard hasn’t tempted me, pencil me in for some dim-sum sum time Amber!
Yesterday at 7:52pm · Like · 1

Miss RE Lover: A small little place downtown costs the same as a 4 bedroom house in the “burbs”, with a yard and free parking and parks and peace and quiet and trees and no traffic AND…. its a millllllliiiiiiiiooooonnnn times better than downtown. oh wait let me just fight thru this stand still traffic so i can get to my condo downtown with no yard and its all made of cement and i have to take and elevator down every time i need to take my dog outside 10 times a day and pay the same amount as those people with nice big houses…. omg… no thanks. downtown sucks more balls than a high class hooker. ugh
Yesterday at 8:36pm · Like · 1

DB: I was waiting for you, the house horny suburbanite, dry humping a bubble…

I rent a very nice and new place, and while all the major markets decline in sales and/or prices, I pay less on my beautiful place than the owner does on their mortgage. In fact, I pay a little less than half what a mortgage at 3% would run for one of your 4 bedroom places would cost. Those rooms I would never use but would have to clean. To top it off I never had to pay closing costs or a downpayment and can move when it feels right. Also when the windows leaked last year, I didn’t foot the 10K special assessment. So far my TFSA has made 10% this year (just two months) with the money I’ve saved, by far more of an investment.

I walk 10 minutes to work and reap an extra couple of hours a day of non Deerfoot/C-train time that you don’t. That is priceless! No traffic for me, I sometimes walk through the tree filled park next to my building, to Canada’s biggest sports facility and cheapest gym deal in Calgary. You’re a very good looking gal, do you drive to your gym?

So enjoy your demographic doom as all the boomers sell out from under you (and take values with them), I will enjoy my short walk tomorrow while you curse some asshole in a jacked up truck for cutting you off. DT’ers don’t drive to work, just so you understand.
Yesterday at 8:51pm · Edited · Like

Miss RE Lover: there are good places downtown but i honestly dont know what any of that percent stuff means. i honestly dont drive, i dont use C-train, i go to the gym yes and i could walk to it if i wanted, but im a total wuss about the cold. i dont drive anywhere, i dont even have a car.

I have of course protected her and my identity, but its proof… most people aren’t thinking, they’re “feeling”. So glad there are people holding up values in my city that “don’t know what what any of that percent stuff means.” It validates my choices in life, grammar and punctuation are just icing on the cake. Thanks for your advice Mr. Turner, I’ll gladly stay put and watch my investments grow!


#45 Hate condos? on 03.02.13 at 12:17 am

Eye popping! I found many more reasons to hate condos.

#46 real estate crash link on 03.02.13 at 12:28 am

this may be the “missing link”…


#47 Beach Girl on 03.02.13 at 12:34 am

Read you Garth, will get back to the rest. But, how does some moron buy a place in the sky, with no control over it, think this is going to work out?

#48 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 12:41 am

Michigan Will Take Over Detroit

Michigan Will Take Over Detroit


The other shoe has dropped: the Detroit city government will be forced to cede its authority to an emergency manager chosen by Michigan Governor Rick Snyder.

“I believe it’s important to declare the city of Detroit in financial emergency,” Snyder announced at a midday press conference on Friday, in front of the banner, “Detroit Can’t Wait.” The EM will assume the suspended powers of the mayor and city council, and will take unilateral control of municipal finances, union contracts, pension systems, and more.

The consolidation of power will likely lead to cuts and asset sales that the mayor and city council had sought to avoid, which could include the privatization of most of the city’s water supply or the sale of Belle Isle Park. The EM also has the power to declare the city bankrupt, though that option seems unlikely.

The process has racial and political overtones. Detroit is over 80 percent black and its city government is controlled by Democrats; the Michigan statehouse is largely white and firmly in Republican control. If an EM is appointed in nearby Inkster (pop. 25,000, currently under a “consent agreement” with the state), as Chris Savage has pointed out, more than half of Michigan’s 1.4 million African Americans will be governed by unelected officials.

Snyder’s decision follows last week’s devastating report from a state review team that Detroit is unable to address its long-term financial problems.

The Motor City, the investigation found, has $14.9 billion in long-term debt and pension obligations, and its general fund has not shown a surplus since 2004. The review team unanimously recommended state intervention.

etc. etc.

#49 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 12:43 am

47 Beach Chic.

Answer to your question, 20 years of schooling, obedience training, and the programed need to fit in.

Thanks teacher…….

#50 Ronaldo on 03.02.13 at 12:46 am

Guys like this have to be completely void of conscience knowing full well that anyone buying into their scam is committing financial suicide. These clowns are no better than the ones flogging the multi-level marketing b.s. And they get away with it. Unbelievable.

#51 West Vanner on 03.02.13 at 12:48 am

Garth, Lamb is not the only “real piece of work” around the country is he? For example some financial advisers we have asked for advice don’t respond, even when it is made clear that advice is expected to be paid for.

Then contact better ones. — Garth

#52 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.02.13 at 12:54 am

Never seen Brad Lamb in stilettos before, so thanks for the pic. The question (obviously) is, as a nymphosheepiemaniac, has he been slaughtered yet?

Good post yada yada yada. Why do individuals not bother to open their eyes?

#19 Smoking Man — “Become a brothel owner…. I’m a genius…… With the Smoking Man, you’re richer than you think…” — Advertise it as The Virgin’s Whorehouse! Great idea!
Joke Caution: This is a political joke which contains an inherently not nice word; Cdn. Friday links; Get Rich Quick Work in Smoking Man’s brothel; UK Factory orders down; Top Economists Break up the big banks; Currency Debasement How stupid a world we live in; Citigroup is the US govt.; Currency vs. Money; Infinite but nothing lasts forever; Seniors stealing from youth; Paying Peter while robbing Paul; 2:44 clip Incomes drop as consumer spending rises; Greece Interesting if this happens; Sequestration She may / may not be accurate with figures; Greece One reason why the Army is stepping aside in case of Greek uprising — paying bills is becoming harder, but Greece is in better shape than Italy; Real Pain It’s tough being an American; Wall St. worry.
The BEAST sets a whole new standard; US Navy confirms HAARP manipulates weather conditions; Clip and pix Like the CPC, this is about invisibility; The Crusades Apparently, this has been okayed by Obomba; Monsanto and the FDA Two crime families; What a way to go But only if you’re a hetero-man; Solar Storm Guess we’ll all find out soon enough if most electrical stations shut down; Art of a different sort, and another one; Heartbreak Hotel £10 / night. Is it worth it? Golden Bentley Nice, but I can’t afford it; CC / GW Volcanoes kept temps. down, which is perfectly feasible; 2:59 clip CBS News — Let’s give up on the Constitution; Survival with Permaculture Video; Curcumin vs. Cancer Big pharma is like a dinosaur, being edged out by natural remedies; Back In The USSR The Politburo, etc.; France – Mali Probably costs a pretty penny to keep the military involved in an illegal war, but what of the unemployment back home? How can a govt. afford to support such stuff? Israel, Exxon and the AEI Magnifying glass supplied; Erdogan in hot water; Drugging Meat Better to pay a butcher than buy the supermarket stuff; Russia In the MEast for good; GW Five metres of snow in northern Japan, and another brute for the US next week? Kerry Billary taught him well; 08 July 1947 Newspaper reports on UFOs.

#53 FYI on 03.02.13 at 12:56 am

I heard from Sept 2013 there is new thing coming for Buyer that to buy a property buyer has to sign contract as well ” Buyer Brokerage Contract” same like Seller’s. Not sure how it effects

#54 guelphstudent on 03.02.13 at 1:01 am

There was a bubble in 1980s, and this is not historic. Its cyclical human psychology. For whatever reason prices in Toronto are approaching the levels of 1989 and those prices are just not sustainable.

#55 Realtors , Bankers , Mortgage brokers and now Canadian government in an all out PANIC! on 03.02.13 at 1:09 am

Not only are condo sales crashing but prices are now following and the worst part is you CAN NOT even rent out your condo for a loss as there is very few renters and THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of empty condo’s looking for someone to rent it. This crash is getting very nasty to the point the government (CHMC) is telling realtors to LIE about the countless many who have went bankrupt and had their condo , house foreclosed on. It’s a nasty crash out there , a NASTY CRASH!

#56 Mr Buyer, how old are you? on 03.02.13 at 1:26 am

in response to this post, it seems you weren’t around the GTA as the 80’s gave way to the 90’s?

It was a well documented condo crash. 30-40% haircuts all around.

This is cyclic, not historic. The cycle just got prolonged by about a decade, that’s all.

I know that you know everything about Japan…so I am surprised you’d make this comment.

#43 Mr Buyer on 03.02.13 at 12:12 am
#2 guelphstudent on 03.01.13 at 10:02 pm
Toronto real estate crashed by over 40% during last bubble.
There was no last bubble. This is historic not cyclic.

#57 Brad Lamb could learn from Rob Ford on 03.02.13 at 1:29 am

Don’t you know who I am?

I’m Brad F^*king Lamb, the Condo King!!!…

The man must be desperate these days. Tough times ahead even for a sociopathic narcissist.

#58 Uwinsome on 03.02.13 at 1:33 am

Early sales figures out in Vancouver. Sales down but prices steady.

#59 yvr2zrh on 03.02.13 at 2:00 am

I am reposting this from VCI post #49 –

Well – Weekend again – up early and seeing some very interesting trends (looking forward) and facts (looking backward).

1.) Feb was bad. We ended with about 1820 sales and 8.1 MOI. SFH was worse than Attached.
2.) I could see the average was going to reeally skew upward. There were the large sales over $10M but there were quite a few closer to $8. Anything over $5M moves the average quite significantly.
3.) HPI? I have a feeling we will see it a bit flat. Only the high end is seeing really big discounting right now so depending on how the voodoo formula works, it may come out flat for SFH but perhaps down for Attached etc.
4.) Feb showed some markets doing worse in the second half (very unusual) while some were up in the second half (likely CNY impacts). Those Middle Class locations had large decreases in second half such as North Van (very good start, slow finish) and East Van. Richmond both SFH and Attached had second half much higher than first with SFH being 38 in first half and 58 in second half. Similar numbers in Richmond apartments – strange enough.

On the trends – **** I think this next section is an important thing to note.

1.) Listings have now slowed officially. As expected (not just because REBGV says so) listings are now slowing. Bad makrets remove opportunistic sellers from the market. Thus, there are fewer listings now – however – you get a better listing pool now – on average more motivated sellers. In 2009, we had some issues with timing of change in sentiment. Just when everyone thought the market had collapsed and removed all the inventory from the market, the government pulled the levers all the way back and flooded liquidity into the market. This increased demand significantly at at time of low inventory – – – it took until Feb 2011 for this to finally re-balance. Where we are now however is very slow sales (wait for point 2 below)and it has taken until now for the sellers to finally admit this and start to remove listings. This is not a bad thing – it is a natural part of the rebalancing of the market.

2.) Sales are down – they are down a lot – and this past week showed a marked further decrease on a year/year basis. I track the old “Agent Will” market, which excludes our fringe markets and focuses on the main populated areas (i.e, excludes Whistler / Squamish / Islands / The 2 PM’s out east – etc.) This past week just hit the down 36% y/y and was only 2 sales above 2009 levels. If this continues, next week will have sales at the worst level ever for this period. On a four-week moving average basis, sales are down 33% on last year and 51% on 2011. I can see where the realtor desperation is kicking in now. The past 2 weeks have been really odd – as I said before, people I am close to who are realtors are very worried and have said some things to me that showed of desperation (almost even screaming at me in anger to get off my butt and do something with my life – – (um . . 7 figure investment portfolio seems to not mean anything to them . . ). In any case – getting back on topic – Sales are terrible and getting worse.

I have had to rejig my inventory projection models for 2013 now with this decrease in sales and now a relatively large decrease in listings. Based on this – for inventory – I project the following:

New assumptions (sorry for the details here)
– Each weeks sales will be equal to the worst same corresponding week of the years 2008-2012. i.e., we will now be in 2009 territory – then move to 2008 territory until September. After this, I will not include 2008 as this is the financial crisis.
– For inventory I have done 5% listing rate above the worst of the years 2008-2012 (somewhat arbitrary).

Large listing removals will result in inventory really flattening now with March month-end inventory being close to 2012, thus losing the year/year increase we have had for a long time. We will end up with an inventory curve somewhere between 2011 and 2012 but will have quite high MOI. Starting in June, we will have MOI falling below the corresponding 2012 year – but again – stil high and with a more motivated seller pool. We will then end the year with 10% fewer sales than 2012 – setting yet another record terrible year.

Sorry for the long post – Main points were to say that listings are now really slowing but sales are slowing more and by a lot. We will then see this impact inventory with it starting to really flatten out. Prices are likely to stay flat to down slightly until summer at which time they will start to fall quickly through the end of the year.

Also – I predict the NDP will win the election. (This is not based on any real estate statistics . . . . )

Happy weekend to all and say hi to your realtor friends (and BMW lease agents . . )- they need some comforting.

#60 Foggy on 03.02.13 at 2:05 am

What most people don’t know is that Brad Lamb also fronts a rock band, when he’s not flogging condos…

#61 Freedom First on 03.02.13 at 2:08 am

Heather,meet Brad Lamb, oh, you 2 already know each other.

Question for you Heather, remember the odd idiot who told you that buying that condo was a mistake?

Brad Lamb. Now you. I thank God for Karma. In this Universe, we all pay, sooner or later, for everything we do. No exception. And, I don’t even have to do anything, but wait, and see:)

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.02.13 at 2:22 am

Looks like the Globe & Mail reads this blog… today’s column on “3 common RRSP myths” ties directly to yesterday’s blog (and comments) on RRSPs:

(the author also argues, as I did with examples yesterday, that the return of investments in a RRSP is better – see myth #2)

#63 souvereiginternational on 03.02.13 at 2:31 am

“Never sign a contract where costs are open-ended”
-that would mean never sign a morgage in Canada where you can’t lock it in for 30 years and not worry about interest rates.

#64 Shawn Allen on 03.02.13 at 2:47 am

Thanks for your great article.I have gathered so much knowledge from it.I have been working in Second Mortgage Hub. We specialize in;
1st & 2nd mortgages,Refinance and Equity Take Outs, Debt Consolidations and Construction Loans, Commercial Loans, Self Employed and New,Immigrant Borrowers, Stopping POWER OF SALES, Paying Off Property/Income tax arrears,Judgments, Garnishments and Liens,Money To Close,Bridge Loans etc.
I think we can help the Canadian people by our great services.

Isn’t the Internet great? Maybe a few people might wish to let ‘Second Mortgage Hub’ know how they feel about digital identity theft. — Garth

#65 Remorse — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 03.02.13 at 2:59 am

[…] via Remorse — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#66 El Padroni on 03.02.13 at 3:16 am

fkucadelic !?!
fkuclicious ??!
fkuctastic ?!!

and how about those (variation of the f-word) at CMHC asking realtors to hide foreclosure information from homebuyers…


It will be a crapstorm of epic proportions.

#67 Bailing in BC on 03.02.13 at 3:25 am

Since CMHC will not disclose that a listing is a court ordered sale, we must assume that all listings are court ordered and adjust our offers as such. This of course will force listings that are not court ordered to state that they are not court ordered. Looks like this has already started. Check this out…

#68 Buy? Curious? on 03.02.13 at 6:28 am

Brad Lamb, Gordon Ramsey called and he wants his act back!

#69 hoser on 03.02.13 at 6:33 am

It’s really funny how so many developers here in the Lower Mainland keep advertising that the First Time Homebuyer’s Bonus for new construction will expire end of March. Does this not coincide with the elimination of the HST on new construction? Is this not the incentive for buyers not to wait on the sidelines so that the developers can flog more units before we get rid of the HST? Why can’t the government be more upfront and advertise this “bonus” as such?

#70 futureexpatriate on 03.02.13 at 7:10 am


#71 maxx on 03.02.13 at 7:19 am

#14 Harvard Grad on 03.01.13 at 10:28 pm

Sadly, what you say is true.
Unfortunately, as the economy worsens, and it will for a very long time to come, the sales process becomes a virtual free-for-all.
Sales are largely made on bravado, subtle affectation, fake friendliness, obfuscation and sometimes downright lies that are delivered in such a way as to be fuzzy in the extreme. Sales people are NOT your friends.

#72 weedeater on 03.02.13 at 7:43 am

#50 Ronaldo
To some extent I agree, but there’s people who don’t fall for the marketing hype just like there’s men who realize certain mens colognes won’t result in nubile young women to throw themselves at him. Garth calls your gullible sorts, Greater Fools, and there’s no amount of good sense that makes these people believe anything other than what they want to believe. Like spammers, Lamb-types only need the GFs to make a living.

#73 Francis on 03.02.13 at 8:31 am

What are the financial ramifications of Heather just walking away from this nightmare ? Please do tell. Thanks.

#74 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.02.13 at 8:32 am

I just noticed that the Post City Magazine “Real Estate Roundtable” for 2013 (featuring Garth, Mr. Lamb, and others) is online:


#75 Alta Lad on 03.02.13 at 8:38 am

#1 Dave, you’re first! Good going. Now be on the lookout for the bullies. You know who these unpleasant folks are. Scroll past them without reading a word. You’re good to go. Oh yeah, 57th? Never give in to bullies.

#76 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.02.13 at 8:42 am

(warning – they seem to have screwed up the posting of that Real Estate Roundtable article — bizarre duplicate text in that page, which makes it tougher to read)

#77 Cassandra on 03.02.13 at 9:12 am

I think this might be a case of someone who was under prepared in terms of her research. A lot of people don’t know where to start and so turn to friends and family for advice–people who may be equally under prepared but well meaning. If you don’t know where to start–go to the public library and ask a librarian. Public libraries are full of resources and people who know how to connect you with them. After that, it’s up to you.

#78 Louise on 03.02.13 at 9:24 am

Move to Kelowna and buy some real estate.. Everything is cool,,it is just the media picking on Kelowna. Even the RCMP superintendent`s daughter sells dope here..

#79 Small Town Steve on 03.02.13 at 9:27 am

I was talking to [email protected] one day as I was making some adjustments to my RRSP when the conversation turned to condos, she owns one. I told her to dump it as soon as possible, yesterday being better than tomorrow. She told me “I can’t as it has dropped over 60k in value since I bought it!”. My reply was “take the hit it is only going to get worse”. I feel bad for her. I feel worse for her clients.

#80 erebus on 03.02.13 at 9:30 am

“If you don’t know where to start–go to the public library and ask a librarian.”

hahaha!! so romantic

I would just ask google

#81 Ret on 03.02.13 at 9:39 am

I feel as sorry for Heather as she would for me if she could sell this place to me for thousands more than what she paid and brag about how smart she was to all of her friends.

I feel for her, just not very much.

#82 Mississauga on 03.02.13 at 9:58 am

#57 Yatter

Per chart, “Data courtesy of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. While believed to be accurate it is not guaranteed”.

So in other words, the data may or may not be frankenumbers

#83 Canuck Abroad on 03.02.13 at 10:09 am

71 Francis, you can’t walk away in Canada like you can in some US states. Heather would have to declare bankruptcy to get out of the mortgage.

#84 Ann on 03.02.13 at 10:10 am

Bailing in BC on 03.02.13 at 3:25 am
Since CMHC will not disclose that a listing is a court ordered sale, we must assume that all listings are court ordered and adjust our offers as such. This of course will force listings that are not court ordered to state that they are not court ordered. Looks like this has already started.
All Bank/Mortgage sales are disclosed on signing any offer and all you need to do is look and the owners name on the listing to figure out who is selling the property. Noting a bank sale would be the same as advertising Marriage break down, Job transfers, Job loss, Heath reasons, ect.

This clause is in all power of sale offers so the buyer needs to wait until closing day to find out if the owner has redeemed the property. It’s a little long.

It is further understood that on the date of acceptance of this Offer there is default under the terms of the Charge/Mortgage which entitles the Seller to exercise the Power of Sale. The only evidence of the default which the Buyer may require shall be a statutory declaration by the Seller setting forth the facts entitling the Seller to sell under the Power of Sale, including the particulars of the notice of exercising the Power of Sale, the names of the persons upon whom service of the notice has been effected, and declaring that default under the Charge/Mortgage entitling the Seller to exercise the Power of Sale has continued up to and including the date of acceptance of this Offer and to the time of closing. The Buyer understands and agrees that the Chargor/Mortgagor has the right to redeem the property up to the time of waiver or expiration of all rights of termination or fulfillment of all conditions and this Agreement is subject to that right. In the event of redemption by the Chargor/Mortgagor, this Agreement shall be null and void and any deposit monies paid will be refunded in full without deduction.

#85 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 10:15 am

#52 FYI — “I heard from Sept 2013 there is new thing coming for Buyer that to buy a property buyer has to sign contract as well ” Buyer Brokerage Contract” same like Seller’s.”

It’ll be just the same as it was before. The person with the money (or the credit) makes the rules, and the person without decides whether he’s OK with them. Other people will try to convince you that all kinds of stuff is required, just as they always have.

#86 Notta Sheeple on 03.02.13 at 10:21 am

“……He’s changed amortization dates, from 40 years to 25 years, in five years — it’s made real estate 35 per cent more expensive………” – Brad Lamb

What a laughable and pathetic (not to mention frighteningly misleading) statement from an equally laughable, pathetic, and frighteningly sociopathic narcissist.

#87 Stickler on 03.02.13 at 10:21 am

Sad truth is that the machine needs you to buy stuff that you don’t need, and over pay for it too.

Thanks Heather for keeping the economy going! I’m sure your condo goes great with your iphone, extra long scarf handbag & new boots!

#88 Dave on 03.02.13 at 10:31 am

Yes the TO condo market is over saturated. The building of new developments has gotten about 2 years ahead of the actual demand. Not a major issue for people with a 3-5 year horizon. For those looking to sell soon it’s a buyers market, expect to sell for slightly less then comparables in the same building.

However the thirst for Detached and Semi-Detached homes in this city continues to be relentless. Modest price gains of 4% a year can be expected.

Garth, I must say your line about mortgage rates being double in 5 years is way off base. Do you really think in 5 years bank rates will be approaching 8% ?!?!? If that happens I will jump over top of the moon.

#89 OttawaMike on 03.02.13 at 10:39 am

Guru Bradwhan is coming to Ottawa and your last post has had the perverse effect of making me want to go to see his “show”

#90 INTERESTING TIMES on 03.02.13 at 11:23 am

TOO LATE the 50% RE Crash has started. Many will be joining the NEW Underclass Soon. Protect your capital and your family from the biggest Ponzi Scam in Canadian History.

A very hard landing is coming for many, make sure you protect yourself!!! Big Negative Feedback Loop coming to Canada’s Economy Soon.

Look at LINKS below and learn my HGTV Virgins!!!!

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtors by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show portrays you!

– Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them with anemic growth.

– Jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down. Watch and read the news in the business section and learn about the layoffs happening every day my virgins. Educate yourself!

– Austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal gov’t firing 20,000 alone in Canada. All gov’t jobs under attack.

– Manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US. Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 to $15.00 an hour, with no benefits and new Union Breaking Laws in many States. The New US can now buy a nice home for $100,000K-$200,000K. You are so screwed in Canada!

– Big Bad Alberta is in big danger now. They cannot compete now in the global marketplace with their overpriced Oil and are losing money on every sale now. They are being taken to the cleaners. Not good for our economy. I guess this is why President H & CON government have started throwing a lot of money back into Ontario Car Plants. I guess they realized there mistakes that you can’t only have a 1 trick pony called Alberta Oil but need a diversified economy. Poor management on their end and more job losses to come.

– 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

– 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a lot of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose their homes!

– Empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!! Many HGTV Virgins are going bankrupt at Trump Towers, what happened to RE only goes up? Many in the Construction Trades will be soon unemployed. They have already started calling begging for any kind of work. I feel sorry for them as it will be times for them and their families. The only thing Canada had for the last 10 years was construction jobs and now these jobs will be going bye, bye as well. At the same time over the last 10 years all our good manufacturing jobs were going overseas.

– Empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started, soon 50% off will be coming to Canada. Also your friends at the CHMC are trying to hide all the Power Of Sales & Bank owned homes that are flooding the marketplace so you don’t low ball them. Word of advice if the home is empty then LOW BALL IT.

– For lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada

– Canadians are 164% in debt! More than the US, Ireland, Spain, and UK when they had there RE Crash.

– Over 8 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

– Over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE Ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc. Even Brother C is bailing out of Canada and going to the UK after his poor policies of 1% rates have enslaved Canadians with unrepayable debt at record levels “What a Rock Star”. See you later fools he will be saying.

– And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

– The realtards, brokers, banksters and builders are in full out panic mode. They have already enslaved 70% of Canadians with RE Debt and there is no more FREE Money to give to the other 30% HGTV Virgins.

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the HGTV Virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Kool-Aid by the RE industry!

Get out there and start Low Balling by 50% as you have the Power Now.

#91 afraidit allmightend on 03.02.13 at 11:48 am

It sould be illegal to lie and act in bad faith with openly bogus ads, cheap and obfusacte without penalty whatsoever…but in Canada the left leaning media…which is 90% of the buisiness across the country refuses to self regulate…merely to regurgitate the party line in exchange for favor and cash.

This is not only the case with the examples you have pointed out….and surely after all the instances of complete BS you’d think we’d have a consumer affairs watchdog by now…..but on the national scale we have an anti democracy movement brainwashing the public with false reports that support the liberal movement elsewhere around the world…we see that with the overt support of the terrorist causes and the recent article saying that Obama opposed the sequestration is entirely false….the fact is that he was the one who created the policy during his election campaign to try and horn swoggle voters he was going to reign in spending.

The leftist media doesn’t want you to know the truth….that this guy and the other liars are good liberals and should be supported regardless of the damage they inflict on the population.

What was that the nazi’s said about propaganda…tell a lie often enough and a majority of people will begin to think its the truth?

We need laws in Canada to protect the public from predatory real estate boards and the industry that benefits from an ignorant public by proxy.

Then why has Mr. Harper lessened corporate oversight? — Garth

#92 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 12:11 pm

58Uwinsome: “Early sales figures out in Vancouver. Sales down but prices steady.”


That’s why sales are down….

#93 Buy? Curious? on 03.02.13 at 12:37 pm

Hey! I’ve got a great idea! Who wants to join me at Brad Lamb’s next seminar dressed as….wait for it….


(Don’t worry Garth, I’ll do you proud. I weigh 183lbs, am 6ft, 19% body fat with a full head of hair. By the way, if Heather needs advice on something other than financial planning, tell her call me.)

#94 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 12:40 pm

Then why has Mr. Harper lessened corporate oversight? — Garth

What the hell, Mr Harper, what happened to H

You guys kiss and make up…..?

#95 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 03.02.13 at 12:42 pm

@ #90 Interesting Times
While I agree with some of what you have stated.
Your rambling “message” is lost in the endless “links” that you’re attaching at the end. 24 links? Really?
Shorter statements with 1 or 2 links might generate a bit more interest from the readers…..

just a thought

#96 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 03.02.13 at 12:46 pm

Sanctions, best thing that ever happened to Iran: Ex-US Senator


A former American Senator says the “illegal” US-led sanctions against Iran have proven counterproductive by making the Islamic Republic “totally independent.”

“I gotta tell you, there’s no question the sanctions are discomfiture, but in the long run it is the best thing that’s ever happened to Iran,” Mike Gravel, a former two-term Alaska Senator, said in an interview with Foreign Policy.

Gravel, who traveled to the Iranian capital Tehran earlier in February to participate in the Third International Conference on Hollywoodism and Cinema, explained that sanctions have made the Iranians “totally independent and forced them to internalize their economic activity, to build machines.”

“We rode for about 10 miles right through the heart of Iran where they’re building an elevated highway. Boy, I’ll tell you, that was an impressive work area. So the city is just like a normal thriving city.

It has prosperity. You could tell by the traffic jams. The architecture’s extremely attractive and imposing, and so what’s happened to the country is it’s being forced into independence.”

etc etc.

If you follow any major war…this is exactly why they occur.

The Banksters fear any nation being autonomous and self – reliant ie its own NON Rothschilds led bank.

In this case, they figured they could starve Iran into submission…..but it is backfiring, which will piss off the Banksters even more.

Obama is already quoted as planning a June Invasion.

#97 just another reader on 03.02.13 at 12:54 pm

#14 Harvard Grad on 03.01.13 at 10:28 pm
I held steady, agreed to a point at what they wanted to hear but kept to my guns and still sold the wrong product.

Wow you sound like a really upstanding guy. I’m sure people love working with you! I would imagine you have tons of repeat clients. Well done!

#98 Not on the Boat on 03.02.13 at 1:08 pm

It clearly states that three large sales skewed the results.


#58 Uwinsome on 03.02.13 at 1:33 am

Early sales figures out in Vancouver. Sales down but prices steady.

#99 Richard and Zeus on 03.02.13 at 1:13 pm

Descendant of Cedar Farmers on 03

I used to ride horses……like RE…….prices kept jacking up at shows, hay, feed…..but wages don’t. So we sold everything and started a new successful business in chilliwack. Best financial move I ever made.

#100 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 1:30 pm

Re #64 Shawn Allen — “Isn’t the Internet great? Maybe a few people might wish to let ‘Second Mortgage Hub’ know how they feel about digital identity theft. — Garth”


It takes alot of gall to use for his free advertising. If we wanted his services, we’d ‘google’ it.

#101 TurnerNation on 03.02.13 at 1:37 pm

#74T.O. Bubble Boy

Isn’t the preternaturally impish Stinson past his prime? A one-hit 1 King wonder run out of town?

And Garth’s haircut! You can always set your watch to it.

#102 Mark W on 03.02.13 at 1:38 pm

#103 Small Town Steve on 03.02.13 at 1:39 pm

Mr. Harper also gave us TFSA’s now if he would only increase them to 30k/year we could REALLY invest ourselves out of this mess and pay cash for houses.

#104 salonist on 03.02.13 at 1:40 pm

if you got granite, stainless
then you absolutely have to have this

the commercial lawn vacuum

#105 Humpty Dumpty on 03.02.13 at 1:46 pm

Never forget the golden rule…

We count ourselves among the few that perceive a steady and stealthy erosion of the present and future purchasing power of what is commonly described as “money”. The degeneration of the utility of currency is almost never considered as a factor in economic forecasting. However, it destroys capital and inhibits and misdirects investment. We believe that the erosion has been camouflaged by a debasement of the slew of government and private sector yardsticks purporting to measure that purchasing power. For the most part, the yardsticks, such as the CPI, have been crafted and contorted by bureaucrats and PhD’s in a way that is unintelligible to most, and to our thinking, meaningless against the test of common sense. What is reflected in the dollar price of gold, despite the meandering rationalizations of conventional wisdom, is the ongoing and potential future loss of utility in the dollar as the cornerstone of global credit. In our view, the next stage of the bull market in gold will be marked by a widely shared awareness of the lost purchasing power of paper money.

#106 Ford Prefect on 03.02.13 at 1:48 pm

#67: Bailing in B.C.

Great idea to say “not in foreclosure” on MLS and assume rest of listings are. The only problem, which I expect you see, is that some players know which are either in foreclosure or held by CMHC and can focus their efforts accordingly. The rest of us just have to guess.

I am very surprised that many commenters can not see the difference between knowing up front which properties are or have just been in foreclosure and discovering afterword at time of offer or by doing a title search etc. Not exactly a level playing field.

#107 Spiltbongwater on 03.02.13 at 1:55 pm

If peoples property taxes were in serious arrears, shouldn’t their first call be to a Realtor, to sell their house, and likely the last call should be to Second Mortgage Hub to take on more debt to pay the debt? I hear the ads on CKNW non stop about home equity loans, so people can pay their credit cards, property taxes or go on a vacation.

#108 Mister Obvious on 03.02.13 at 2:12 pm

Any residential construction slowdown that may be occurring in the Greater Vancouver area is not apparent to the casual observer. Just saying.

I wasn’t going to start on this but its early Saturday morning and I need an excuse to avoid some chores.

There seems to be some confusion with negatives. For example, if somebody says: “I could care less”. That literally means they still have some level of ‘care’ but that care is subject to further diminishment.

But, what they almost certainly mean is “I could not care less”. In other words they have reached the level of zero caring. That is, its impossible to care less. Simple?… Not for some, I guess.

Then we come to predictions of a huge “negative feedback loop” coming to residential housing in the mistaken belief that ‘negative’ means ‘calamitous’.

Perhaps we should not borrow confusing terms from control theory unless they are better understood. In most systems negative feedback is the desired condition. Such feedback creates stability and maintains tight, predictable control.

Its actually positive feedback that grows (or shrinks)output at unsustainable rates to unsustainable levels. Positive feedback is what sent house prices to the foolish heights of today.

It will also be positive feedback (but in the downward direction) that will send them back toward reality, if those predicting calamity are correct.

This blog has consistently predicted a correction (with severity dictated by local conditions) followed by a long period of slowly melting prices overall.

That is, positive feedback (in the downward direction) until negative feedback eventually kicks in and returns some stability. Still in the downward direction, of course, but much more slowly.

#109 Timing is Everything on 03.02.13 at 2:27 pm

#48 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator

“Can Detroit be so bad?” – Garth, March 14th, 2012

Yes it can. Worse.

“This will be good for Detroit. Reality for Vancouver.” – Garth, March 14th, 2012

When does the ‘good’ start, for Detroit?

Speaking of reality…

Detroit will be the largest city in the country to lose the ability to govern itself.

There’s an inescapable and sobering reality about this: No mere mortal – whether electable in Detroit or not – can do this job. The truth hurts: Detroit is not governable. – Ken Braun []

‘Since 1970, the Motor City’s population has been halved, from 1.5 million to less than 700,000 in 2012, and more than one-in-five lots in the 139-square-mile city is vacant.’ – The Daily Beast

Detroit property values up 13.5% (Shiller-Case index). — Garth

#110 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 2:31 pm

#103 Small Town Steve – please do not bestow a sense of dignity, honesty, and integrity on Caesar by calling him Mr. Harper; anything but will due in my humble assessment, or will get upset and may not be able to sleep at night, so take pity upon me please. Thank you for due consideration about my simple request.

#111 heather on 03.02.13 at 2:38 pm

Thanks for taking interest and sharing my story. Hopefully it helps other new buyers in the market. You’ve given it to me nice and frankly, further highlighting the very things that have been keeping me up at night.. Just wondering – what is your advice? All options discussed seem to lead to more trouble. If you were in my downtrodden shoes, what would you do?

Put it on the market and see what happens. You can cut your losses, or gamble on the future. The ultimate decision is based on your tolerance for risk. — Garth

#112 Timing is Everything on 03.02.13 at 2:39 pm

Detroit property values up 13.5% (Shiller-Case index). — Garth

Boston-Edison? R U buying?

#113 Spiltbongwater on 03.02.13 at 2:43 pm

Never forget the golden rule…
#105 Humpty Dumpty on 03.02.13 at 1:46 pm

How many golden rules are there. The only golden rule I know is it is not gay when it is in a three way. With a honey in the middle there is some leeway.

#114 bill on 03.02.13 at 2:54 pm

Maybe a few people might wish to let ‘Second Mortgage Hub’ know how they feel about digital identity theft. — Garth


#115 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 3:07 pm

73Francis: “What are the financial ramifications of Heather just walking away from this nightmare? Please do tell. Thanks.”


Garth is probably tired of explaining…so I’ll do it this time. Can’t do that in Canada. Period. End of story.

#116 Edmontonian here on 03.02.13 at 3:15 pm

This is the situation in Edmonton in the early summer of 2007. I know a few people who couldn’t resist to buy during the peak of the credit bubble here. Now, 5 years later they’re still underwater. In Edmonton even though we’ve had 3 years of 3% mortgages, and the economy has picked up again, we haven’t recovered from the downturn in 2008/2009. Many condos lost over $100,000 in value in just a few months. In small satellite cities like Fort Saskatchewan you can buy a new 2-story house that sold for almost $500,000 for $360,000 today! Wait until interest rates rise! Food prices are rising and will rise very quickly with 1billion people in Asia coming out of poverty to middle-class.

#117 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 3:30 pm

#103Small Town Steve: “Mr. Harper also gave us TFSA’s….”


Garth gave us the TFSA.

Harper gives us nothing but grief….

#118 Rob too lazy to properly insert a link on 03.02.13 at 3:30 pm

Glad I don’t do this anymore

#119 DA why don't you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 03.02.13 at 3:32 pm

I’m not sure how the CHMC will get away without telling the buyer that the house they just bid on is in foreclosure, since all houses in foreclosure in Canada have to go to open court for approval. In court others can over bid you for a $1. The whole real estate market in Canada is taking a turn for worse and has become quite unethical, now it seems to have infected CHMC. Shame on the federal government! I’m wondering if you can find out how many houses in foreclosure are held by CHMC by using the Access to Information Act, since the CHMC is a government entity.

#120 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 3:32 pm

Re Detroit:

At least Detroit saw it coming….its been in a state of decline for over 40 years.


You can buy a house in Detroit for $1.

ARTICLE :Detroit homes still selling for $1

Throwing in used chewing gum may bring it up to $1.13…so 13% increase

The City is in the death grip, surrendering control to the State. So, you have lost one level of Gov’t, and become a ward of one level of Gov’t removed from an Orwellian single Gov’t.

Watch other cities follow suit.

The archetypical Canadian belief. — Garth

#121 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 3:41 pm

#111 heather – Mr. Turner gave you some good advice, as wish I knew the exact location to analyze it all, so list it, but with a difference. Do not get hooped with a listing agreement on MLS for longer than 30 days, as a crooked agent will want more, so just say we will go month to month with a renewal, as you need to take control over this potential mess.

#122 Ann on 03.02.13 at 4:20 pm

121 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 3:41 pm
#111 heather – Mr. Turner gave you some good advice, as wish I knew the exact location to analyze it all, so list it, but with a difference. Do not get hooped with a listing agreement on MLS for longer than 30 days, as a crooked agent will want more, so just say we will go month to month with a renewal, as you need to take control over this potential mess.
.——————————————————————–Have you ever sold a house? The minimum time on M.L.S is 60 days.
Not a crook!

#123 Bailing in BC on 03.02.13 at 4:32 pm

Ann #84 Blah blah blah, yes thanks for the cut and paste. This has already been done to death. The point of my post is that this is the first listing that I have seen that is announcing to the general public that it is not a court ordered sale.

Ford Prefect #106 I have a pet realtor that feeds me all the bank owned, CMHC owned, foreclosures, powers of sale. Since I live in a smallish town asking around about new listings also gets me most of the motivations for any listings I am interested in (death, divorce, job loss etc.). It’s not that this information is unobtainable, it’s just that you have to do a little work to get it. Why should it be spoon fed to the general public? It is not a level playing field but I think that it is naive to expect one side of the market to reduce their advantage for the benefit of the other side of the market. If I was in a desperate situation and needed to unload a property, I wouldn’t put the word “desperate” in the mls description. Sure there might be some vultures who know my situation hanging around waiting to swoop in but I’d be hoping for that greater fool. Why would CMHC be any different? Two properties sold where I an renting in the last week or so, basically identical. One went for $440k (pretty much what they are going for now) the other went for $480K. The people who paid $480k were not playing on a level playing field as they must have purchased without doing any market research (ie. they are idiots). Is it fair that they are idiots? No, I suppose not. Should it be the responsibility of the people they purchased from to let them know? Don’t think so.

#124 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 4:40 pm

#120 Grim Reaper – I will never forget the day that Larry from Detroit was working in the mortgage business in Toronto, and he disappeared, so asked my dear friend Al what happened as Larry was working under him. He said he hooped all the banks for big money just before he split, and have the cops on my ass asking questions.

Al was laughing as said I taught him well, but never knew what he had done, as his wife in Toronto who was a school teacher wanted to go to Michigan, and off he went with the bank loot. I had done many a deal with Larry, so said do you know where he is hiding out, and he said not really, but his aunt is a close friend of mine and here is her unlisted number.

The aunt was a Supreme Court Justice in Detroit, so called her, and she gave me his phone number, and we met a few days later in Windsor at the Holiday Inn on Riverside to talk about old times over a few drinks.

#125 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 4:57 pm

#122 Ann – so things have changed over time, so make it 60 days, and no more; thanks for the correction, as do not want heather to be hooped for a longer listing, as she needs to take control, and not a Real Estate agent who signs her up on a listing contract for 6 months.

#126 Ken R on 03.02.13 at 5:34 pm

Very unfortunate situation for Heather. I find many people too trusting that others will look out for their interests with some sort of professional conduct. Not true- the game is rigged and the table is tilted.
In Canada, it really is, buyer beware!

The payday loan store parking lots looked busier today, sign of things to come?

#127 Mike on 03.02.13 at 5:38 pm

#76 T.O. Bubble Boy

From that article, seems to me a SFH in the 700-1M range is pretty safe.

#128 Buy? Curious? on 03.02.13 at 5:48 pm

Garth Turner has officially replaced Don Cherry as Canadians favourite Candian!

I love you, man. But it’s just Bro Love, nothing more.

#129 Darklan on 03.02.13 at 5:54 pm

To Bubble Boy at :
#74T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.02.13 at 8:32 am

You’re right formatting on your link is messed up so I went looking and found the full article with pictures of Garth (you should have smiled a bit sir ;) for us), Lamb and lackeys …. brace for it… on Lamb’s blog …. *shudder* i feel dirty

but here’s the link to the full properly edited article:

Be back after shower….

#130 Ann on 03.02.13 at 6:00 pm

123 Bailing in BC
Where you rent lol

#131 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 6:05 pm

#105 Humpty Dumpty — “We count ourselves among the few that perceive a steady and stealthy erosion of the present and future purchasing power of what is commonly described as […]”

That’s right, make the reader feel smart for being among the ‘few’ who know what pretty much everybody else knows…

You just have to ask yourself, punk… Did I just live through a generation when the two most populous and most gold-loving nations went from abject poverty to an average income of a few thousand a year, with a combined middle class numbering more than the populations of Western Europe and the United States? Was that the most bullish thing that could possibly have happened for demand of the yellow metal? And yet, adjusting for inflation, it didn’t manage to surpass its 1980 peak? So how about it, punk. Do you think you’re lucky, or just INSANE IN THE BRAIN?

#132 “Vancouver Island real estate is crashing.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 03.02.13 at 6:06 pm

[…] “Mid Vancouver Island real estate is crashing. So many listings have been reduced 4-5 times and over $100,000 in price reductions, and still no greater fools buying. Nanaimo to Courtney is kapoot! Someone turn out the lights and end their misery. This is not ending well!” – unbelieveable at greater 1 Mar 2013 10:13pm […]

#133 Tony on 03.02.13 at 6:14 pm

Re: #111 heather on 03.02.13 at 2:38 pm

Sell the unit at a loss and buy the same unit or a similar one back in 3 years at half the going price today. This way you only lose 50 grand instead of 175.

#134 Descendant of Cedar Farmers on 03.02.13 at 6:31 pm

99 R & Z – wow we could sure chin wag about four legged freeloaders. I saw people go thru so much time and money with them for no financial gain. Good luck with your new venture.

Earlier generations of my family had larger produce
operations in the Cedar area.

#135 Snowboid on 03.02.13 at 6:35 pm

#91 afraidit allmightend on 03.02.13 at 11:48 am…

It should be illegal to lie and act in bad faith with openly bogus blog posts…but in Canada the right leaning Cons…which is 10% of the blog posters refuse to self regulate…

…We need laws in Canada to protect the public from predatory Con posters with attempts to undermine Blogs that educate through reality.

#136 McLovin on 03.02.13 at 6:54 pm

Repost from VCI (Referring to Vancouver)

VHB – Thanks again for the month end numbers.

That is stunning. I don’t think people have any idea how bad the sell/list is. At 38% it is 0.2% better than 2009 when we were at the height of the Financial Crisis. (Let’s review)

At this point in 2009 the TSX had fallen almost 50% from its 2007 high and was very close to its bottom. The financial markets worldwide had sized up and short term corporate bond yields had gone to 20%. Banks were failing worldwide and there was talk from creditable sources that the next great depression was upon us. The average price of SFH’s in Vancouver had dropped about 15% from the peak in a very short time. The RE market was plunging and no one was buying. This was not a nice time to have any confidence in buying anything.

So today we have the same sell/list as we did when this was going on and we are supposed to believe the market is just taking a breather? Do the Realtard’s and pumpers even have a clue how bad things are and are lying or are they just stupid?

I really don’t know what more evidence anyone needs to see this market is in deep trouble and going down hard. I find it very sad that even as the water splashes at their feet the passengers of the HMS Vancouver are still sipping their crantini’s and won’t get in the last life boat.

#137 45north on 03.02.13 at 6:55 pm

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has been asking realtors for months to keep consumers in the dark about whether the properties it sells are part of a foreclosure, according to a document obtained by The Financial Post.

but as Ann points out it’s efforts can obscure but not hide reality

fear is soaking its way through CMHC’s corridors and cubicles

#138 Harvard Grad on 03.02.13 at 7:01 pm

#97 – Just another reader – are you kidding me – really, was it that hard to understand my simple illustration on what I was “really”trying to get at!

Let me enlighten you for a quick second, in highschool I landed a job at Foot Locker (obviously not a career move). I was handed a uniform, given no training, no product knowledge, just stand there and agree with what the customer wanted. Guess how I got the job – they threw a few stupid questions at me and without hesitating – I could always come back with a convincing response. What sales profession do you think does any differently – I would bet the farm that those (like Brad Lamb) though some argue are not ethical, can sell themselves – that was my point – if you can let others believe in you – there wallets are yours for the taking.

At Foot Locker we were paid peanuts on our hourly wage, but had the incentive of a nice commission payout – with a 300% markup on most shoes – you should put your bitter words to the corporate elite – and again – it’s a damn running shoe – back then, most people spent more time trying to figure out the taxes then they did asking anything about the shoe –

Maybe you should open your eyes abit – those with the million dollar mansions weren’t the nice guys who offered a fair and honest service / product.

#139 Country Girl on 03.02.13 at 7:06 pm

Unload the condo fast. Be careful about using a Real Estate agent in your situation. If you use an agent, set your price at or below anything similar on the market and offer the agent an enticing commission as an incentive to work on selling your unit rather than the many others that are listed.
A better alternative, if you have good communication and sales skills, is to sell it yourself by setting the price below other similar units on the market to ensure a quick sale.

#140 just another reader on 03.02.13 at 7:27 pm

#97 – Just another reader – are you kidding me – really, was it that hard to understand my simple illustration on what I was “really”trying to get at!

Maybe you should open your eyes abit – those with the million dollar mansions weren’t the nice guys who offered a fair and honest service / product.

I’m totally aware of that. My point is, you’re no different than those guys. At the end of the day I’d rather be a decent human being than a rich lying asshole. That’s not to say I want to live like a monk, but I would be ashamed if I made my living screwing people over again and again.

#141 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 7:28 pm

#138 Country Girl – the first thing that heather must do is retain an AACI to appraise this property, and some will say this is a waste of time, but she will have a legal document in hand which in time might become important, as she needs to cover her ass. I have been through it all, and needs this before she does a listing for 60 days, and wish her well, as it might be wise to take the hit now, as the market will be going south.

#142 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 7:34 pm

The archetypical Canadian belief. — Garth


No actually, I preferred Betty over Veronica….or Mary Ann over Ginger..

..Jughead was funny though

#143 Country Girl on 03.02.13 at 7:43 pm

121 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 3:41 pm
& #122 Ann on 03.02.13 at 4:20 pm

Heather, the minimum may be 60 days on MLS but most listing agreements include a clause whereby a sales commission needs to be paid to the listing agent if the property is sold within 6 months after the listing expiry date. This payment is required even if a buyer is found without any introduction, contact or help of the real estate agent. Be sure to read and understand the terms of your listing agreement.

#144 Shy Blawg Dawg Too on 03.02.13 at 8:04 pm


Garth can be quite cutting – look at it as literary license on his part to make a point. But now is the time to make some tough choices. Sometimes it is easier to look at it in the long term, a large amount (loss) today will shrink over time.

#145 Ann on 03.02.13 at 8:19 pm

I sell numerous power of sales, Bank sale whatever you want to call them, all are vacant or have a left over tenant and are in need of thousands of dollars in renovations. The seller information will have the bank/mortgage holders name and a note to call for schedules to be part of any offer. They are put on the market like any other property Steve Wonder could tell if it was a power of sale you could not ‘hide’ the fact if you want to.

#146 Herb on 03.02.13 at 8:55 pm

#97 afraidit allmightend,

would you mind identifying one Canadian media corporation that is owned by socialists? The rest of your rant is just as factual.

Let me assure you, Genosse, that Dr. Goebbels is proud of you!

#147 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 8:55 pm

#126 Ken R: “I find many people too trusting that others will look out for their interests…”


People can be naive. We can’t possibly know all there is to know about everything….so there is alot of homework involved.

#148 Herb on 03.02.13 at 8:57 pm

Sorry, that’s afraidit allmightend at #91.

#149 Mixed Bag on 03.02.13 at 8:59 pm

#94 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 12:40 pm

Then why has Mr. Harper lessened corporate oversight? — Garth

What the hell, Mr Harper, what happened to H

You guys kiss and make up…..?


No, he’s straight out calling him out.

#150 Mr Buyer on 03.02.13 at 9:07 pm

#140 just another reader on 03.02.13 at 7:27 pm
#97 – Just another reader – are you kidding me – really, At the end of the day I’d rather be a decent human being than a rich
I would rather be a rich, decent human being

#151 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 9:11 pm

#138 Harvard Grad: “At Foot Locker we were paid peanuts on our hourly wage, but had the incentive of a nice commission payout – with a 300% markup on most shoes….”


And this is precisely why it’s insane to pay full price for anything…

#152 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 9:17 pm

#139 Country Girl: “…..and offer the agent an enticing commission as an incentive to work on selling your unit rather than the many others that are listed.”


Are you say 7% on the first $100,000 and 3% on the remainder isn’t enuf? LOL

#153 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 9:30 pm

#140 Country Girl – am lost, as was involved with hundreds of property sales years ago, so now an MLS listing is fixed for 60 days, and that is a contract which should become null and void. So why should a sales commission ever be paid after 6 months to the original listing broker? Please educate me, as I might be missing something.

#154 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 9:39 pm

#143 Country Girl — “Be sure to read and understand the terms of your listing agreement.”

And change them to your satisfaction.

#155 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 9:44 pm

#146 Herb “would you mind identifying one Canadian media corporation that is owned by socialists?”

Without voicing an opinion on who is or is not a Red, I will point out that Pierre Karl Péladeau, President and CEO of Quebecor and Sun Media, was NOT named after Karl Wallenda.

#156 juno on 03.02.13 at 9:48 pm

A buddy of mine just sold their house taking a whipping at the same time. Their family is now moving back to their parents house.

Never thought about that situation, but now that they basically lost a chunk of thier savings. They have to rebuild what they lost in the last few years and that is not to downsize, nope its to move back to the parents. So that means another empty rental units as families begin the process of having several family units in a single house.

#157 Bailing in BC on 03.02.13 at 9:52 pm

#130 Ann

lol alright Ann. You did know that this is a bear blog, right?

I rent because I’m not interested in being tied to a depreciating asset. I could buy where I rent if I chose to, in cash and still have a sizable amount left over. Why would I though? The spreadsheet I keep on my portfolio says that my balance has increased by 12.8 times my monthly rent so far this year.

I guess that makes me a loser in your eyes. Sold much lately darling?

#158 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 10:02 pm

#143 as made a mistake on her number, and have a hunch she may be a troll; not sure, so we must ask the Smoking Man for confirmation, as he alone knows the machine.

#159 Descendant of Cedar Farmers on 03.02.13 at 10:10 pm

157 Bailng in BC – you seem a little touchy for someone
who is up 12X rent this year. Sounds like Ann might be able to help you find something when the time comes.

#160 Gunboat Denier on 03.02.13 at 10:11 pm

Re 158 Cedar – this is me having fund changing blog name again.

#161 hobbygirl on 03.02.13 at 10:23 pm

# 80 erebus
“If you don’t know where to start–go to the public library and ask a librarian.”

hahaha!! so romantic

I would just ask google”

I am a librarian, and will say this, Google is the junk food of information searching. Go to your library and get some credible source info from specialty databases. Just because its online doesn’t mean its true. You get what you pay for…

#162 John on 03.02.13 at 10:23 pm

Hi Garth
Take a look at the video Craig Alexander, Chief Economist at TD Bank talks about housing market correction in Canada (crash in Vancouver, condo crisis in Toronto) and improving conditions in USA. Basically he goes over the same points you patiently explain here with some sugar coating of the situation in Canada (like decline is slowing, it is going to get better very soon). It is still worth watching and sharing with your readers I think.

#163 Country Girl on 03.02.13 at 10:27 pm

#153 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 9:30 pm
There’s a standard clause in the listing that gives the sales agent entitlement to commission should the property sell within a set time period after the expiry of the listing (usually 6 months, I believe).
As per #155, it’s best have this clause removed from the listing.

I once purchased a property through a private sale within 6 months after the real estate listing had expired (I wasn’t aware that it was previously listed). After closing, the agent went after the seller for commission and was successful.

#164 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.02.13 at 10:28 pm

If some of you actually believe in the “Left” versus” Right” paradigm OMG….its the SAME sh*t / SAME pile.

#165 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 10:37 pm

just another reader on 03.02.13 at 7:27 pm#97

At the end of the day I’d rather be a decent human being than a rich lying asshole. That’s not to say I want to live like a monk, but I would be ashamed if I made my living screwing people over again and again


Interesting, tells me two things about you.

1 you have never experienced poverty, and no freinds when you need them most……

2 you swallowed the cool aid…. You associate happiness with being a straight shooter…. A taught learned behaviour…

Having personally experienced 1 and 2 much better to be a rich lying asshole……..

#166 ChickenLittle on 03.02.13 at 10:42 pm

#99 Richard and Zeus: “So we sold everything and started a new successful business in chilliwack”

NOOOOOOOO!!!! WHY would you move there? I lived there and moved as soon as I was old enough to leave. It must have been pretty bad wherever you lived before if you enjoy CHILLIWACK. I lived on Chilliwack Mountain, and before that on Arbutus off of Broadway. It has a good used bookstore downtown, though. Best I have ever seen.

#167 Herb on 03.02.13 at 10:46 pm

#155 Ralph Cramdown,

I don’t know who the “Karl” that Karl was named after is, but I doubt it’s Marx.

#168 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 10:53 pm

Just another reader……..

We are glorified animals, the rules of the jungle still apply. In the animal world the strongest get to mate with the hottest females. In the human world those the possess the most labour credits get to mount the best..

To get the most labour credits, you don’t do it by trading time for them. You use others labour and keep the Lion share of credits for yourself..

Hey I did make the rules, just learned to play the game void of conscious, and morality, those words taught to keep you from becoming the alpha…

#169 Country Girl on 03.02.13 at 10:58 pm

The standard clause in Ontario is 90 to 120 days after expiry of the listing, not 6 months.

#170 Old Man on 03.02.13 at 11:04 pm

#163 Country Girl – thank you, and appreciate for informing me all about this all. I can see you are a winner, and am a loser, so need much to learn in life if I ever need to list a property in the future.

#171 Gunboat Denier on 03.02.13 at 11:05 pm

161 Hobbygirl – Which one is you?

And just because it’s in print doesnt make it true either. And my libaray is free so there ya go!

#172 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 11:20 pm

Just another reader.

I hold no animosity to people like Brad Lamb, I get pointers from them.

When you scam someone and take their loot it’s good for our species. Stupid people should not be allowed to make copies of themselves, take there loot and you diminish there odds of reproduction… It beautiful…

In the not to distant future when a big ass astotiod is heading toward earth to enialate the planet….

Who would you want to figure out a way out.. A sheep, or a Smoking Man.

#173 Snowboid on 03.02.13 at 11:31 pm

#161 hobbygirl on 03.02.13 at 10:23 pm…

As you know there are dozens of databases, with thousands of resources online using your local library account. You don’t have to go to the library unless that is your only source for internet access.

Google can be a good resource as well when using planned searches and qualifiers:

site: (to restrict to a specific website)
” ” (search for exact phrases)
.. (range of time)
~ (search related themes/words)
– do not include in the search

Example: “real estate” 2009..2010 ~bubble -victoria

Returns blog entries from with the exact term real estate from 2009-2010 with similar themes/words to bubble but excluding victoria

That only scratches the surface as there are dozens of other qualifiers – author, filetype, intitle, etc.

Of course it is easier to use the search engines in most of the online library databases – my favourite is Masterfile Premier.

#174 Devore on 03.02.13 at 11:55 pm

#82 Mississauga

So in other words, the data may or may not be frankenumbers

No, it’s a standard liability CYA disclaimer. As lawsuit-happy idiots everywhere have proven, it is pointless for anyone to guarantee anything they don’t have to.

#175 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 11:58 pm

On Facebook I subscribe to this thing called freethinkers club. Yet all the posters post shit that other people said….

Not free thinkers. The worst was a post.

People that refuse to read have no advantage over people that can’t.

Un real… In life you can read someone else’s script or create your own. Reading sucks, writing is where it’s at…..

#176 Julia on 03.03.13 at 12:15 am

Look what you get for $29 million in New Delhi

#177 Devore on 03.03.13 at 12:21 am

#122 Ann

Have you ever sold a house? The minimum time on M.L.S is 60 days.
Not a crook!

Maybe not a crook, but way too trusting.

There is minimum time on MLS. You can cancel a listing after a few days. You can dump your agent too. Realtors say the minimum is 60 days, or whatever, because that’s what they want you to believe. They’ll even make you sign “standard” contracts, which, like any contract you sign, is negotiable on every point.

#178 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.03.13 at 12:36 am

An extremely weird thing happened this morning. As I was watching soccer (Barclays English Premier League) between Norwich and Manchester United, Norwich’s goalkeeper dived to smother a shot.

As he was sliding on the grass, a divot — yes, a divot of all things — jumped out of nowhere and nipped him on the back. Medical attention was required, then to Dr. Phil for a decade or so of intense group therapy and hugs. Strange? Although it could be a case of the Bloopers.
Sequester = Austerity Now the US will be the same as Greece, Spain, Italy etc. and EZone unemployment and US incomes One shooting higher, the other lower; Fiscal Cliff and Gun Control “There is an absolutely a relationship between the fiscal cliff and gun control and gun control serves several purposes.”; 09 March, 1933 Speech “Mr. Chairman, the United States is bankrupt. It has been bankrupted by the corrupt and dishonest Federal Reserve.”; China ready for currency war, so is this a good time to bring their new gold-backed Yuan in, and ditch the petro-dollar? IMF and Israel What do they have in common? Govt. Policy “Over 50,000 people are homeless in the UK. There are approximately 710,000 empty homes in the UK – enough to house a million people.”; 1:54 clip Bogus beggar makes US$100K / yr., but the gig has run its course; Pay To Drive Beyond insurance, taxes, licence and gas, and Slash Welfare Gotta keep the military running! Silver Prices defying gravity; Butlin’s Butlin’s Holidays wants east European workers, not Brits.; Italy It’s all Italy’s fault; Spain Coup d’Etats all over the world; Ten most unhappy states.
Investigating No need to investigate, each will prove the reality of the continuation at their own moment; DHS Janet Napolitano quits abruptly; 6:45 clip Smoking Man, you’ll like this — Teacher tears public education to pieces in resignation letter; HAARP creating densest plasma clouds in Ionosphere; Menage a trois Living under the same roof; Break In Not as crazy as it sounds. Free meals, sleeps etc.; TV Dinners Cardboard or fraudulent? Piers Morgan Not altogether trustworthy; Mars Bumpy times ahead? Back In The USSA Drones can do lotsa things; Diane Feinstein’s Bill S.54 effectively bans more guns than Feinstein’s, and Gun Ban = Book Ban The same? US – Cuba The BS is getting thicker; Putin Upgrade the military.

#179 Old Man on 03.03.13 at 12:44 am

Ok will not hold you in a state of utter confusion, as if you list a property for 60 days that contract becomes null and void. So there are two options with the Real Estate Broker. One is to sign an agreement of suspension, or an agreement of termination, and the last one has no liability on the listing party, so he or she can do whatever, and there cannot be any claim on a commission. I might be old, buy am no fool.

#180 The Man From Nantucket on 03.03.13 at 1:01 am

#90 INTERESTING TIMES on 03.02.13 at 11:23 am

I think I’ve seen this post 20 times or better. It still stinks

One note arsehole still playing the same tune.

#181 Cici on 03.03.13 at 1:14 am


Ignore SMs advice about the brothels.

Go with instead. It’s worked fabulously for the people I know who use it. Sort of like having your own B&B, and they offer insurance.

If your condo is centrally-located and fully equipped, you could probably make a profit.

#182 Kyle on 03.03.13 at 1:38 am

Thought you might like this story about a fake mansion in this fake realtor market city of ours in Vancouver:

#183 Derek R on 03.03.13 at 2:27 am

Gotta agree with #181 Cici. is the way to go for Heather if she wants to retain the condo as an income property. Friends of mine in central Calgary have used it very successfully. Mind you it’s still a risk doing so. Who knows how the B&B market will hold up over the next year?

So if it were me I’d probably still take Garth’s advice and sell at a “small” loss now rather than a big loss later.

#184 hobbygirl on 03.03.13 at 3:01 am

#173 Snowboid

Yes, there are literally thousands of databases out there and a few good accelerators (EBSCO being one of the most popular), and yes, you can search from home using your library card. Many people don’t realize that libraries pay in excess of 100 g’s or more for licensing depending on the package they buy and the info isn’t free, your tax dollars pay for it. I always encourage people to make full use of these offerings instead of the Google method. I liken Google to shopping at Sally Ann…you will find a few gems here and there but you have to sift through a lot of crap to find it.

#185 hobbygirl on 03.03.13 at 3:18 am

Snowboid…I meant aggregator, not accelerator (its late).

#186 bubu on 03.03.13 at 3:46 am

“With a population of 15 million, Istanbul is one of Europe’s fastest-growing cities. In recent years, areas of the city that have been around for centuries have fallen victim to the wrecking ball. Most of the lucrative property is being scooped up by large-scale investors.”
Enormous amount of condos, new luxury apartments, all for a different economic class.
Evictions of the poor en masses, and new -but unaffordable housing for the poor.
World’s largest airport to be ready in 2017, build on earthquake zone.
This boom may be a bubble with eigh-thundred-tausend -!!! empty apartments.

Actually sad, really sad. And… the next quake could be just around the corner. NUTS!

#187 bubu on 03.03.13 at 3:49 am

To watch video, scroll gown on right hand side to :
2013-02-20 | 06:30 mins.
Turkey: Istanbul’s Modernization Craze

#188 Bailing in BC on 03.03.13 at 3:50 am

#159 Descendant of Cedar Farmers

When the time comes Ann will be selling used cars.

#189 Herb on 03.03.13 at 9:22 am

#175 “Smoking Man”,

and when can we expect you to write more than the shit you post here?

#190 Smoking Man on 03.03.13 at 9:37 am

Vlad great video teacher quits……
Cici # 181.

Obviously you have never been self employed.

My plan for heather is the best…

Rent the place out for maximum charge, being payed in cash.

If she got 125 per day monthly that’s 3750 per month. CASH


slaves can’t think….

#191 Reader in TO on 03.03.13 at 10:56 am

I recently read the Amica (up-scale retirement home operator) financial statements. They said their occupancy levels in the Victoria area (they have a couple properties near Victoria) are falling because of the real estate slowdown. Thought I’d add that since a couple posters commented on Vancouver Island.

#192 Smoking Man on 03.03.13 at 10:56 am

#189 Herb on 03.03.13 at 9:22 am

#175 “Smoking Man”,and when can we expect you to write more than the shit you post here?

Herb you’re so old…….. You of all people should know, one man’s shit is another’s perfume.

Humans are like cement, freshly poured they can be moulded into any shape, we are at the mercy of our mould makers. I was lucky somebody screwed up the mixture, I can’t solidify and you’re just jealous.

#193 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.03.13 at 10:57 am

#167 Herb — “I don’t know who the “Karl” that Karl was named after is, but I doubt it’s Marx.”

Well Herb, the great thing about choosing to remain ignorant is that you never have to change your mind. I’ll respect your choice.

#194 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.03.13 at 11:22 am

@ @ #127 Mike on 03.02.13 at 5:38 pm
#76 T.O. Bubble Boy

From that article, seems to me a SFH in the 700-1M range is pretty safe.

“pretty safe” is a relative term, and must be combined with location… a $700k house in Brampton probably isn’t safe, but a $700k SFH in Leaside is.

What (I believe) Garth is highlighting is that there have been no changes in mortgage rules/supply/demand/etc. that would impact the $700k-$1M market, but the CMHC change to not insure over $1M does decrease the demand for $1M-$1.5M houses.

(and condos have a serious supply/demand imbalance)

If foreign buyer rules were changed, or there was a major slowdown with the Big Banks that led to layoffs for white-collar Torontonians, I’m sure that the $700k-$1M market would still be strained – just not as much as other segments.

#195 Chris on 03.03.13 at 11:31 am

My wife has a colleague, a recent immigrant – That lady and her husband both work at the same place, earning very modestly, I might add.

With almost zero savings, they put a down-payment on a condo last Fall.. after lining up for 6hours outside a sales office in Markham.

Knowing such cases, I can believe stories about the average Cdn’s debt burden. I can believe that some (many?) homebuyers have finances like a house of cards, depending entirely on rising home values to pull them out of the red.

#196 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.03.13 at 11:34 am


(BMO’s 2.99% 5-yr fixed)

#197 maxx on 03.03.13 at 11:56 am

#151 Daisy Mae on 03.02.13 at 9:11 pm

#138 Harvard Grad: “… with a 300% markup on most shoes….”


And this is precisely why it’s insane to pay full price for anything…

Exactly. Bought two pairs of lightweight running shoes recently- high end, top notch which normally retail for about $70-90 a pair for $3.00 apiece. Completely unused. Retail for both: $161.00 – $207.00. Savings=98% -99%. Sweeeeet. (No tax because these were bought from a charity shop). People save a TON of money by sourcing ex retail).
So your statement is, not to put too fine a point on it, right on the money.
I’ll be happy to venture into retail territory the day I see rates rise and well-deserved RESPECT for savers return to the market.

#198 rosie "moving forward" on 03.03.13 at 11:58 am


Seems that “they” have that covered. What else are you good for?

#199 Herb on 03.03.13 at 12:32 pm

#192 Smoking Man,

believe me, if there is one thing I am not, it is jealous of you.

#200 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.13 at 12:34 pm

Swiss referendum 'backs executive pay curbs'

In case anyone wonders how this was even possible, see here.

Now you know why First Nations always demands the Governor General (not the Prime Minister) be present in all their negotiations. They're not stupid like 99% of Canadians who still believe Canada is a democracy. It's not.

#201 Herb on 03.03.13 at 12:36 pm

#193 Ralph Cramdown,

I did not know that corporatism = socialism, if not communism. I apologize for that bit of personal ignorance and eagerly await your further revelations.

#202 Timing is Everything on 03.03.13 at 1:02 pm

#52 Nosty

Just 4 U…

#203 souvereiginternational on 03.03.13 at 1:05 pm

“Never sign a contract where costs are open-ended.”
-agree but that would also mean never get a mortgage in Canada, unless you can afford to pay it off in 5 to 10 years.

#204 TurnerNation on 03.03.13 at 2:42 pm

A look inside a Smoking Man haunt.

Oldsters at play?

“At this juncture sits Casino Niagara. Originally opened in 1996 to serve as a temporary facility while the more ambitious Fallsview was being developed, it has remained in business, and was even renovated in 2005.

On Family Day Monday, it is densely populated with older people who dutifully sit feeding money into the 1,500 slots. As the machines’ noises combine to form sonorous harmonies, waves of major chords wash over the gaming floor. To some, this is perhaps heaven.

One thing about being in a casino is that you can never know for sure who is seeking a diversion and who is seeking something else. When a person drops many hundreds or thousands of dollars at a table game, you don’t know whether they have plentiful disposable funds for gambling or are betting away their house. But from snippets of overheard conversations, you get a sense of which players the dealers know and recognize and are truly sad to see lose.”

#205 Old Man on 03.03.13 at 4:20 pm

#196 T.O. Bubble Boy – just checked BMO and they are offering a fixed rate for 18 years -open- @ 8.50% for residential which is interesting and there was a time that this would be a bargain for cost of money, but it is open for 18 years as most are closed. Might be good under certain financial circumstances.

#206 just another reader on 03.03.13 at 4:33 pm

#165 Smoking Man on 03.02.13 at 10:37 pm
just another reader on 03.02.13 at 7:27 pm#97

Interesting, tells me two things about you.

1 you have never experienced poverty, and no freinds when you need them most……

2 you swallowed the cool aid…. You associate happiness with being a straight shooter…. A taught learned behaviour…


You’re wrong smoking man.

1. I have known poverty and a lack of friends.

2. Good job on thinking I swallowed the kool aid because I think being a decent human being is a good thing.

Well done on being a lying rich asshole. Frankly, its nothing to be proud of.

#207 Old Man on 03.03.13 at 4:42 pm

This is a good one for Mr. Turner as BMO has just established a market rate for a fixed rate residential mortgage that is open for 18 years @8.50%. So why not establish an RRSP transfer of an arm’s length mortgage by holding your own mortgage inside your RRSP? The Tax Man cannot dispute that BMO has established this market rate, so what do you think about this all?

#208 Victor V on 03.03.13 at 4:48 pm

Heather, the advice you’re getting here from old man/smoking man et al is confusing. The main point when getting a real estate agent is this. Under NO CIRCUMSTANCES should you ever sign a BRA. Not sure what that means, read this and you’ll be fine:

#209 DON on 03.03.13 at 5:03 pm


My advice reduce the price a little. TO a greater fool the price reduction will be taken as a deal he/she can’t miss.

Good Luck.

#210 Freedom First on 03.03.13 at 5:25 pm

#206 just another reader

Well said. Thanks.

I have heard that smart people in particular find it extremely difficult to change their behavior. Sooooo, there is still a really good chance for smoking man to become a real man.

#211 Old Man on 03.03.13 at 6:02 pm

#208 Victor V – I am not confused in the least as she needs an AACI appraisal report as it might come in handy, and she does a listing for 60 days; this listing becomes null and void; and then she has to make a decision to renew the listing or not. I discount the hold over clause that can be negotiated, as time is critical in a falling market, and only applies to an introduction of a potential buyer while the listing was in force. What if in 60 days nobody came? Now if a few came the listing agent can name them, so go for an agreement of termination to name them.

An agreement of termination then will have no liability if the client desires to list with a different broker, and say once again discount a hold over clause, as the chance of a past introduction with the original listing is remote coming forward to buy. There have been some court cases about this all that, and the Judge has taken a different opinion against the Real Estate Broker who wanted his commission during the hold over period. :)

#212 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 03.03.13 at 6:31 pm

Listen…there are only 3 certain things in life…

(The Leafs won’t win the cup) X’s 3

PS saw a good documentary that Paul McCartney was killed in the 1960’s has a doppelganger

#213 Anon on 03.03.13 at 7:06 pm

Stop the madness!! Rise up young people!

#214 Westernman on 03.03.13 at 7:16 pm

Snowboid @ # 135
Just what we need in Canada – another useless law…

#215 Snowboid on 03.03.13 at 11:41 pm

#214 Westernman on 03.03.13 at 7:16 pm…

Apparently you didn’t read the post I responded to, however, if you did, congratulations on an exceptional grasp of the issue.

#216 Cici on 03.04.13 at 1:01 am

#190 Smoking Man

Yes, Mr. SM, I have been self-employed, and no, I am nobody’s slave.

She can make more than 125$ per day with airbnb, and doesn’t have to worry about the health, social and other risks involved with renting her place out as a brothel.

#217 Gunga Din on 03.04.13 at 8:04 pm

I attended the “free” seminar and you are simply just wrong on many fronts. Mr Lamb presented a very strong arguement on how the average person can make a better life for themselves. He was clear in his assesment of the interest rate market and that there would certainly be upward pressure on rates but not for some time. This happens to be the consensus viewpoint from an overwhelming number of economists, market experts and pundits. He accounted for an increase in rates from 3% to 5% over a 12 year period in his models. Mr. Lamb was also cautious in estimating the average annual increase in realestate prices in Toronto and instead of using the actual figure of 5.6% he used 4%. As for the profanity I thought he used it in an amusing fashion. Maybe Mr. Turner and his friend the property manager can propose what they think would help people retire in modest comfort without investing their money in a GIC at 1% return per year. Mr. Lamb made it clear to all in the audience that we could not rely on the kindness of others in our search for financial independence and I for one thought his words were wise.