The move-up

too big

“I sold my condo and I have a hundred thousand now,” he said.  “Should I buy a house, or invest, or what?” It was an absurd phone call from a dude in Calgary I’d never met, who had never heard of me. “My friends read you,” he said, “so they dared me to call.” At least he had the stones to do that, even if he can’t face his wife.

One kid, one on the way, she wants a house. Sal does marketing for oil and gas juniors. “Zero job security,” he said. “This place is brutal right now.” One income, and just one hundred grand. So, is Calgary a good buy? “ReMax says so. Just heard that on the radio.”

Two minutes later I discover he sold his first house five years ago, and they pocketed $220,000. Real estate rocked. So they bought the condo, paid all those monthly fees, and when it came time to sell (one kid, one on the way), it took seven months and a big loss. Suddenly half the nestegg was gone.

So why, I asked, sounding as irritated and disgusted as possible, would you make the same mistake again? Put everything into one asset? Create risk for your family?

“Because it’s different here.”

ReMax says it’s different in Winnipeg, too. The ‘news release’ out yesterday claims houses in The Peg rose in price an average of 10.03% each of the last ten years. That’s akin to the escalations seen in Florida or Nevada prior to the collapse which ate the American middle class. “No signs of being in bubble territory,” the company quickly added. “House prices are playing catch up, given a stronger economic status and following decades of steady, but modest, growth.” In other words, this is all completely normal. It’s different in Winnipeg.

But not for two major developers who’ve now given up trying to sell their already-built condos in downtown Winnipeg. The Penthouse on Princess and the H2O development have become 152 rental units, after sales fell off a cliff. In fact, only 15 units were purchased, reflecting a condo reality also impacting Toronto, where prices have already tumbled over 8% in the past year.

Meanwhile in Vancouver and Victoria, sales of homes over $1 million have fallen precipitously – which is bad news in the two cities with the highest proportion of seven-figure listings in the country.

All this is consistent with what I’ve told you to expect. The end of long mortgages creamed the virgins. The end of CMHC insurance creamed the million-plus market. And meanwhile a slowing economy, falling commodity prices and high-profile job losses in Canada, along with negative demographics, foretell the inevitable – a slowly, relentlessly deflating real estate market after a decade of insane, debt-fueled house porn.

And who better to arouse property lust than the S&M crew at ReMax?

The latest report I mentioned above is the latest attempt to encourage people who only scan headlines, grow restless during 60-second commercials or read with their lips to buy a house. After all, it’s different here. In Canada it’s perfectly okay for home prices to rise 93% over a decade and mortgages explode. In fact (as Saskatoon Housing Bubble figures) while real estate was bloating by more than ninety percent and mortgage debt swelling 148%, the average income grew only 31%. How can that possibly be an issue?

Now as the virgins are crushed by crashing condos and the Audi class whacked by the insurance changes, ReMax is trying to tell us the middle is booming. In fact, they have a name for the phenomenon of suicidal forty-year-olds not paying attention: the ReMax Move-Up Buyers Report 2013.

Apparently the realtors don’t understand why the proportion of people in Toronto, for example, buying homes priced between $500,000 and $700,000 has grown from 8% of the market to 20%. This is attributed to growing buyer confidence, cheap interest rates and “move-up buyers taking advantage of the softening market as a chance to buy a bigger home in 14 of the 16 major markets.”

In reporting all of this, one big-city reporter even called it “a buy-up spree.”

“The leapfrogging currently underway allows purchasers to gain greater equity with each move, accumulating wealth in the interim,” says the ReMax report. “They recognize that very few financial vehicles allow them to do that with the security, tangibility and dual purpose that homeownership represents.”

This is what Sal heard on CHQR as he drove home. Just as the ReMax guys had hoped and prayed. Sal also told me that while he has an uncertain job, three (almost) dependents and just a hundred grand, “the bank has offered us financing of between $500,000 and $550,000.”

The realtors. The banks. The media. The huddled masses, yearning.

Obviously, this is too big to fail. What a waste this blog has been.

______________________________________________________________

Average Income, Average House Price and Mortgage Debt Growth 2002 -2012

Saskatoon Housing Bubble

206 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 02.21.13 at 9:58 pm

Propane. Great Clapton song.

#2 Vicpaul on 02.21.13 at 10:03 pm

I believe the Clapton song is, “Rogaine, growin’ all above my brain”.

#3 City that smells like it sounds on 02.21.13 at 10:03 pm

oh to be second!

#4 ozy - no comments today? on 02.21.13 at 10:05 pm

where is the FIRSTS FURY?

#5 tkid on 02.21.13 at 10:07 pm

Sal and the wife have turned $220,000 into $100,000 and are now phoning strangers for permission to turn it into -$450,000?

The mind, it boggles.

#6 claudius emperor on 02.21.13 at 10:09 pm

DELETED

#7 Mike Stewart on 02.21.13 at 10:13 pm

PHurst!!! Luv this site!

#8 AK on 02.21.13 at 10:13 pm

#5 tkid on 02.21.13 at 10:07 pm

“Sal and the wife have turned $220,000 into $100,000”
——————————————————————-

Yes, that is a symptom of a marriage. Or a trip to Las Vegas. :-)

#9 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.21.13 at 10:14 pm

“The leapfrogging currently underway allows purchasers to gain greater equity with each move, accumulating wealth in the interim,” says the ReMax report. “They recognize that very few financial vehicles allow them to do that with the security, tangibility and dual purpose that homeownership represents.”

Funny, no mention of purchasers “gaining greater debt” or “paying land transfer taxes and realtor commissions” with each leapfrog.

#10 can't understand on 02.21.13 at 10:14 pm

If I was Sal, I would have to up my dose of Cipralex cause I would be FREAKING. Sal, may I suggest condoms and if you can’t convince your wife to rent, trade her in.

#11 Smoking Man on 02.21.13 at 10:16 pm

You know what I just realized, those hot 20 minute work out chic I use to salivate over back in the day are old now….

Damn… House price back then were cheaper, I remember when I bought my first place paid like 50k…..people where telling me why, house are over priced.

Just saying

#12 TurnerNation on 02.21.13 at 10:16 pm

If I may indulge this weblog’s interest here’s an amazing Clapton live version w/organ solo later on – I have bookmarked. Boomer bliss.

“She don’t lie she don’t lie; Propane.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZGMLP2pK8c&feature=related

#13 Mike in Mississauga on 02.21.13 at 10:17 pm

Garth, could you comment on condos near square one in Mississauga? I’ve looked at some of the nicer towers and seen 1 bedrooms < 250k and 2 bedrooms <300k. Of course, square footage is limited. Seems like a far cry from the 300-450k equivalents in downtown Toronto you advise to avoid.

Sarnia is cheap, too. — Garth

#14 claudius emperor on 02.21.13 at 10:18 pm

Well I hope your wife really appreciates a stainless steeel ring for your anyversary.

#15 StocksRHot2013 on 02.21.13 at 10:21 pm

Re max are the biggest scumbags in the real estate industry and their agents are the most unprofessional, uneducated around. It’s amazing how they get away with these nonsense ads like the one they had before on a huge billboard at the 401 proclaiming they were the “best agent”. No regulations or balls in the government to stop this BS?

#16 JSS on 02.21.13 at 10:24 pm

Is it better to invest in Canadian real estate or a KIA?

#17 Robbie on 02.21.13 at 10:25 pm

How many people recognize the truth the first time they hear it? The second…the tenth…..the hundredth? The ability of the human mind to mitigate impending disaster hasn’t changed. Vesuvius had many warnings with smoke and tremors before Pompeii was engulfed…but few left in time. “Hey, Romulus, it’s different here…don’t be concerned.”
The market has given warnings of heading down when prices dropped in 2008…only to have the market stoked by longer amortizations, lower interest rates, etc. Well, the housing boom is over. With only a few exceptions (the 1%, the 10%?), Buyers can’t afford the houses. When that happens, either prices drop or the homes remain unsold. When corrections are put off (as in 2008) then it just gets worse when it finally happens.
Fortunately for developers and Realtors, there are still lots of people who do not believe what they don’t want to believe. After all, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the Canadian people.”…..apologies to H. L. Mencken for slightly misquoting him by substituting “Canadian” for American.”

#18 Smoking Man on 02.21.13 at 10:26 pm

Turner Nation

Rather than propain, I would go with no pain, no pain, propain

#19 blase on 02.21.13 at 10:28 pm

Hoping for a blog posting soon about how the changes in CMHC insurance are affecting the banks. What’s the word in the finance community? When does this gas bag blow up in the face of the government who is backing $800+ billion in loans? What about all the billions in HELOCs they are also on the hook for? What do the changes do to the books of the big banks for funding in terms of MBS’? What about the private insurers and the credit unions? Hoping for you to dig in to these topics so we can see what happens when the tide has gone out in 6 months-1 year from now.

#20 AK on 02.21.13 at 10:30 pm

#7 Mike Stewart on 02.21.13 at 10:13 pm

“PHurst!!! Luv this site!”

——————————————————————

Well, one out of 2 aint bad. But as far as being “PHurst”, not even close. In fact, you are a few bricks short of a load.

Welcome aboard.. :-)

#21 in calgary on 02.21.13 at 10:32 pm

100k loss on condo in Calgary? Under normal circumstances it does not happen… I am suspicious of the story told.

#22 blase on 02.21.13 at 10:34 pm

Aman Bhangu and/or/aka Canadian Watchdog, please keep posting as much as possible. I’m wondering specifically when this steaming pile of subprime loans will blow up in the faces of the Harper government.

#23 Dr. Wanker on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pm

There ain’t no cure for stupid! Just look at Smoking Man–hard to be any more stupid?

#24 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pm

Hello to all of you Victoria readers who are here to learn more about Canadian real estate in general and Victoria’s housing market. I’m a Victoria girl in her 20’s. I’ve learned a lot about the housing market in Victoria over the past 2-3 years and am here to share that information with you. We almost bought a house in Victoria when the housing market had reached its peak in 2010, but we decided against it once we realized that the bubble was about to burst.

There have been many housing bubbles around the world in the last decade. Bubbles always burst and this is what has happened recently in Victoria and the rest of Canada. Now is not the time to buy. Millions of families around the world have faced financial hardship in the last 5-6 years because they bought houses at the wrong time. The US housing crash is a really good example of what happens when housing bubbles form and then burst. There are many more examples, as this chart shows.

Many of our friends bought houses in Victoria over the last 3 years and are now upset as they have realized that they now owe more on their mortgages than what their houses are worth. Their realtors, friends and families told them it was a good time to buy, so they did.

Victoria house prices have already come down noticeably since the peak. Sellers are finding it very difficult to sell in this buyer’s market. Some sellers have listed their houses for up to 36% below assessment. In January 2010, the single family home average price in Victoria was $711 K. Last month, that average was down to $535 K, a drop of 25%. Average prices are not always the most accurate indicator, but clearly the housing market is correcting. As well, assessments in Victoria are down. Those assessments were done in the summer and house prices have melted even more since then.

Girls I know what it is like to want that house more than anything in the world. Even though it would be nice to have it now, you have to understand that buying near the peak of this housing bubble will put you in a difficult financial situation for many years. House prices in Victoria will be much lower in 1.5-2 years and it will be well worth the wait. We are renting right now and loving it. We have saved a ton of money by renting and it feels great to see house prices declining in Victoria and knowing that the big price decreases are just around the corner. Guys, the short wait for much lower prices will be well worth it. Renting for now is a no-brainer.

Until next time – cheers!

#25 Just Say No on 02.21.13 at 10:37 pm

Generation Jobless http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sylS4VzNN-0

#26 Money talks on 02.21.13 at 10:37 pm

Join us for a date with the delusional….

First article yesterday morning:

(notice there are zero comments on this article)

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/index-of-canadian-housing-prices-shows-continued-weakness-in-january-teranet-192051151.html

30 minutes later:
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/Manitobas-robust-housing-market-chugging-along-192055451.html

Today: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Winnipeg-home-prices-jumped-160-per-cent-over-10-years-report-192300921.html

This has been going on in our paper for the last year. The only people who have stuck around to consistently comment are the ones calling out the upcoming burst. All others vanish quickly, likely busy trying to dump their “asset” after paying attention to what is actually going on.

#27 james on 02.21.13 at 10:40 pm

g-man, we have religiously followed the blog over the past year or so. a lot of focus does fall onto condos, then boomer homes. my question is what does the acreage (4 acres) market look like? how are the characteristics and is it worth purchasing? looking at the price cycle the amount rose with the boom and have reduced with the crash. whats your thought? would your recommendations to purchase a home in a few years coincide with this acreage market?

ps. how is the blog that is voting you to be king?

#28 Mike Stewart on 02.21.13 at 10:44 pm

#20 Ak
*******
U missed the last couple dozen or so posts from yesterday’s blog. U”ll understand. ;-)

#29 Money talks on 02.21.13 at 10:49 pm

One more….http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/vacancy-rate-for-apartments-inching-up-192213361.html

In the neighborhood we’re renting in now, a mass amount of the brand new 400 to 800k homes are rental homes, many owned by families who are new to Canada. We met a lot of them when we were looking to rent (major language barriers) and we were baffled at how many homes are rentals here. One woman told us her parents bought the house but are living in China, they plan to come to Canada in the next 5 years.

You can spot most of the rentals easily, they have grass in the front yard, mud/tall weeds in the back. No care or concern for upkeep and most are rented to University students.

Friends of ours bought in this neighborhood, again, it’s a pricey “upscale” hood for the PEG and their neighbors house is a rental. The “grass” (all weeds) gets whipper snipped once a summer after many complaints. Not exactly what you’d expect to see in a brand new area where other homes spend thousands on landscaping.

Interested to see what happens in this neighborhood after prices fall, shoddy construction and poorly maintained homes/properties. How CAN this end well?

#30 David on 02.21.13 at 10:50 pm

This same loss in the market would scare most people away from investing permanently yet with real estate…

#31 DELETED on 02.21.13 at 10:51 pm

Fiiirsssstttssstttttt

#32 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.13 at 10:53 pm

In a stagnant, or declining, market, “leap-frogging”, if one were to think about it, actually mostly benefits the sellers–they are the ones who have gained the most in the real estate run up to date. Thus, leap-frogging at the peak of the market is the worst possible move someone could make (if the buyers just waited, the higher-priced home should move down more than the price of their current entry-level home).

#33 Mic D'angelo on 02.21.13 at 10:54 pm

I hate the stereotype that Italian-Canadians must have a big house. My parents were smart enough to buy a house that was modest and what they needed. The rest of the savings was invested in government bonds ,earning compound interest the last 33 years.

My parents instilled in me that if you buy a big house that you don’t need it is not an investment but a drain on your income and savings. You pay an increasing amount of these yearly costs,expenses and much higher property taxes,gas,electricity,water,maintenance,mortgage interest and other financing charges,repairs, renovations,H.S.T. on all these expenses etc. The extra closing costs,mortgage fees,financial charges,H.S.T.,lawyer fees,real estate agent commission,land transfer taxes,home inspection fees etc. when buying and selling a property.

The real estate industry makes the argument that your capital gain on your primary residence is income tax-free which is not a strong enough one because it could cost 5% to 10% of the cost of the property in expenses+H.S.T.Also, the opportunity cost of the interest,dividends or other income you could of earned on the extra house that you did not need.For example if a couple took the $957.30 per monthly mortgage payment for 25 years and got an average 3.89% bond yield as today’s long term provincial strips in maxed out TFSA’s it would be worth $471,401.65 income tax-free.Remember bond yields will rise over 25 years and the argument that capital gains are income tax-free does not look true as it once did.

For example a $200,000 extra mortgage balance even at 3.00% over 25 years will cost $87,191.27 in extra interest and this if interest rates don’t increase and a $957.30 monthly mortgage payment ($666.66 principal+$290.63 interest) that strains a couple’s monthly cashflow. This does not include the CHMC fees for low downpayments. I’m sure there are other additional expenses for owning a bigger house but this is the most I can think of. It is not worth all the expenses,costs,risks and hassle to buy a bigger house,property you don’t need.

#34 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.13 at 10:56 pm

#24 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pm
———————————————————-
Funny, you keep posting this story about “how much you’ve saved renting” yet you don’t provide any analysis of your expenses over the past few years. I think you are a troll, trying your best to talk the Victoria market down. Prove me wrong.

#35 Notta Sheeple on 02.21.13 at 11:00 pm

“…….In Canada it’s perfectly okay for home prices to rise 93% over a decade and mortgages explode…..”
—————————————————

Rising housing prices were clearly fabulous for banks, developers, and realtors. Why do you think the Bank of Canada uses the TOTAL Consumer Price Index (which INCULDES mortgage interest) as a target to be achieved, yet uses CORE CPI (which CONVENIENTLY EXCLUDES mortgage interest) as measure to set monetary policy. Just the way the Banks like it.

For the rest of us Canadians, though, home ownership is the largest consumer expense we will face. Rising housing prices do nothing but drive up our wages, in effect, slaughtering our competitiveness in global labour markets.

Had the Bank of Canada reigned in skyrocketing housing prices (and subsequent skyrocketing mortgage payments) to a manageable level, think of the economic powerhouse Canada would be today.

Instead, we were given a decade of doubling housing prices which predictably sucked the spending power from the average consumer’s budget and off-shored hundreds of thousands of jobs to countries whose citizens don’t require high wages for half-million dollar bungalows.

#36 Toronto CA on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/02/21/toronto_considering_doubling_development_charges_for_new_projects.html

That should help sales of Toronto condos! Help them plummet to the earth even faster than they are already, that is.

#37 Chickenlittle on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm

I had to wait till the Leafs game was over before I read this. Good game!

Anyways, I am reading about the stock market crash of 1929, and I have noticed a few things that are similar. I know next to nothing about economics, but I can smell BS a mile away.
1: Some people thought it would go up forever, like our RE market.
2: There was a lot of speculation going on, much like our condo and house flipper friends.
3: The more prices went up, the more people invested.
4: An oversupply of wheat led to a crash in wheat prices, leading to a government bail out for farmers.
5: people were borrowing money to buy more.

I know Garth chirps on and on and on about this suff, but now that I have done a bit of research, it makes more sense to me now. I am far from taking over Garth’s job with my own blog, but at least I am learning!
I found the dots, but Garth is connecting them for me and the rest of you. Thank you, Garth!

There is more to it obviously than my grade 1 summary of Black Tuesday, but I’ll figure that out!

Good luck everyone! :)

#38 Ty on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm

Two truths that people are ignoring here on this blog (that smoking man says but no one listens)

1) people will never give up their houses – it will take a catastrophe to do so. They will cut corners everywhere else if need be or take on more debt. Why? To keep up with their friends. Thats all life is about- facebook, pinterest, instagram.

2) boomers will never sell either. See above – their offspring learned well from them and essentially are boomers 2.0 when it comes to keeping up with the joneses.

Hate to say it but its true – you all underestimate the herd

#39 Axxman on 02.21.13 at 11:02 pm

Checking out the mid month numbers for the GTA on the TREB site. February is going to have to have a stellar second half for the sales numbers to come even close to the worst February on record (excluding the crisis). The central core of the city is already seeing price drops that can’t be hidden…even after deploying the TREB’s Enron-esque techniques!

#40 Chickenlittle on 02.21.13 at 11:05 pm

Bottoms_Up on 02.21.13 at 10:56 pm
#24 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pm
———————————————————-
“Funny, you keep posting this story about “how much you’ve saved renting” yet you don’t provide any analysis of your expenses over the past few years. ”

REALLY!?! I wouldn’t post my financial dealings on here! To many know-it-alls. Besides, it’s none of your business. You’re probably a RE agent because no one else criticizes anyone for dissing their local RE market except you.

#41 a prairie dawg on 02.21.13 at 11:06 pm

Propane!?!

Got to see Eric Clapton back when he toured with Mark Knopfler. A damn good show that was. :)

“Muddy for Nuthin’.” A great Dire Straits song. I think it’s about farming or something…?

And all this talk about geezer rock reminds me of that old C.C.R. song lyric, “There’s a Bathroom on the Right.”

Ahhh the good old days.

#42 Kootenay Ma on 02.21.13 at 11:06 pm

Not a waste Garth !!!

#43 bigrider on 02.21.13 at 11:08 pm

#33 Mic D angelo- on Italian Canadians.

You might hate the stereotype that Italian Canadians have big houses but it does not make it less true. You would have to be suffering from some kind of green gamma radiation, steroid infused, sense of political correctness to deny the fact that IC’s are the backbone of everything RE in the GTA.

You may also hate the stereotype that IC’s are RE obsessed, are in every corner of the RE industry from construction, to sales (RE agents galore,check Woodbridge) to mortgage brokers to selling all the latest sexy housing stuff like fancy kitchens, granite etc( check the multitude of such companies and the owners last names) but to deny is to fool yourself.

Like ants at an unattended picnic, are Italians Canadians to real estate.

#44 Kilby on 02.21.13 at 11:09 pm

#24 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pm
Hello to all of you Victoria readers who are here to learn more about Canadian real estate in general and Victoria’s housing market. I’m a Victoria girl in her 20’s.
_____________________________________________
People like to complain about the “firsts” on this blog but this s%@t is getting ridiculous Garth, can you talk to her (him?)

#45 furst on 02.21.13 at 11:10 pm

FURRSSSSSTTTT!!

Cue rage from Dr. Wayne. Please indulge us.

#46 Silver on 02.21.13 at 11:12 pm

No waste for me Garth…

I keep getting asked why I did not get more…like $1.2 or something…
That’s not what the market will pay… we did just fine…
bought at $315 sold at $950’s, owed $160ish.
Ive sold close enough to a mill..for me… bought court orderd sale way down, just above a quarter of my sale price… payed bills,… and have more fluid cash, about half… in my pocket than at anytime in my life…

…. and I have a totally clear very nice size line of credit… again at a very low very old rate…
… and using your advise and borrowing money via a 3.1% mortgage… cheap money, and its backed if I need to… cover it.
… not set yet… but no longer dead…
No… no not a waste of time here…
not by my standards…
And I’m a long hair… so if I can get It why can’t the educated ones….
Your thoughts have contributed to that place… and the peace of mind I now have…
other than packing…******, and that to will pass…
Thanks…
… I love the house… 1300 sq ft. Painted all over a Beautiful Blue. Real cedar shakes…
Its a 1920’s Classic Salt Box on 1.1 acres… with a drinking water grade stream on two sides…and full sun… Vancouver side of Mission.

so… Rain in Vancouver… Rain in Mission…….50/50…
Or Broke in Vancouver,… Or set in Mission… no 50/50 there…

why wouldn’t we sell and move… shes 57 and I’m 54…
more time with each other… probably take a year out and smell the roses…

Regards from a far left capitalist…
we are not all stupid…
and unemployed… or unemployable…
those are socialists…

Silver

#47 Smoking Man on 02.21.13 at 11:15 pm

#23 Dr. Wanker on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pmThere ain’t no cure for stupid! Just look at Smoking Man–hard to be any more stupid?

WANKER lol, stupid is as stupid does. Find a prediction, a bet I posted that did not come thru, yellow pages don’t count. My explination is in the archives…..

I would rather be stupid me, than a waker…

#48 DON on 02.21.13 at 11:17 pm

#24 Victoria Real Estate Update

We know – you are preaching to the Aware class.

#34 Bottoms_Up
The Victoria market is in a slow but sure spiral. Not much is moving, price reductions everywhere, condo’s and houses coming on the rental market daily – unprecedented in Victoria.

You can rent almost any type of house, 7000sq foot castle/house on an island of the coast for $1800 I kid you not – oh I long for the days I can work from home.

Friends at work have been waiting for their houses to sell. Rental market around universities and colleges are looking for students to rent 4 bedroom houses the the end of the tail end of the semester.

Trades leaving town – you can feel the fear in the air – I guess the heloc against the house for trips and a BMW are being called in as assessment values creep downward.

Now is the best time to buy if you are a greater fool. You can be FIRST in a class of impatient idiots.

#49 Vancouver is a shithole on 02.21.13 at 11:17 pm

Cannot wait for Vancouver home prices to slide another 15 percent this year. Economy is way down. No jobs, no meaningful work, no industry, desperate realtors, drug dealers, and swaths of unemployment. Vancouver is a major shithole and yes people it will sink into the gutter. There are no gold bars in that city. Vancouver is a shit hole. Major shit pile of real estate.

#50 Snowboid on 02.21.13 at 11:23 pm

“The Penthouse on Princess and the H2O development have become 152 rental units, after sales fell off a cliff”

This seems to be the fate of many Kelowna condo projects as well. The best example is the Conservatory, which was going to be a showcase, high-end condo project.

Started in 2002, here’s an update from 2009…

http://www.kelowna.com/2009/09/10/the-conservatory-a-lesson-in-unfinished-business-and-dreams-unrealized/

It’s all rentals now, not sure how well it is doing as the prices are a bit high for the location…

http://www.kelownaconservatory.com/

Many other showcase projects in Kelowna have a high percentage of rentals, with phases of projects such as Waterscapes, moving to rentals as sales stopped.

This may be the new normal for a few years yet, in the meantime…

Patient as ever.

#51 Inglorious Investor on 02.21.13 at 11:28 pm

#17 Robbie on 02.21.13 at 10:25 pm

It’s interesting that you use the eruption of Vesuvius as an analogue for the real estate market in Canada…

Before the famous eruption in 79 AD that buried Pompeii and Herculaneum, there were indeed warning signs, such as tremors and sulphur in the water. However, the people of these cities did not understand the warning signs because they did not know that Vesuvius was, in fact, a volcano.

In Canada we’ve already seen housing bubbles around the world burst from excessive debt. And yet, we carry on overpaying for houses, with record debt levels, as if, indeed, it is different here.

The people living around the Bay of Naples in 79 AD were innocent victims of nature and ignorance. Canadians today who keep taking on the risks that Garth tirelessly warns about deserve whatever they get.

#52 Tyrell Pronghorn on 02.21.13 at 11:40 pm

#34 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.13 at 10:56 pm
#24 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.21.13 at 10:35 pm
———————————————————-
Funny, you keep posting this story about “how much you’ve saved renting” yet you don’t provide any analysis of your expenses over the past few years. I think you are a troll, trying your best to talk the Victoria market down. Prove me wrong.

___________

That person posts the same thing every time. Yes, Victoria is deflating, now move on. How times have they posted it? 4,5,6?

#53 Herb on 02.21.13 at 11:41 pm

Garth, you’re competing with the entire FIRE industry, its political frontmen, and the self-serving MSM. You don’t have the advertising bucks, minions and general clout to spread the real word from coast to coast. Remember, you got and stayed out of politics to concentrate on saving individuals, and that mission has not been a waste of time. Keep on trucking!

#54 Riding the Pine on 02.21.13 at 11:47 pm

#34 Bottoms_Up

Yeah, great marketing campaign that would be…post comments (among hundreds a day) on a pathetic blog and insinuate renting is the way to go. I’m sure she’ll turn the market upside down singlehandedly with that strategy. Pure genius.

But since I’m here now, I feel compelled to relay the story to you personally that I sold in Vancouver at peak last March, and have been renting ever since…saving 50% of what I would have spent owning. Ahh, the freedom! Haven’t seen the inside of a Home Depot since then either (insert more savings here).

#55 Dr. WAYNE on 02.21.13 at 11:53 pm

#7 Mike Stewart on 02.21.13 at 10:13 pm

PHurst!!! Luv this site!

==================

Mikey … be forewarned. Use of the disgusting term ‘PHurst’ or other moronic spellings will get you designated as a conspicuously accomplished a$$hole, which denotes low intelligence … and you will no doubt note there are many of ‘those’ who visit this site, who also can’t spell, need lessons in grammar, and, above all, ramble on posting encyclopedias that no one reads, except those who have no life (like me). My ramblings are purposeful.

I too like this site.

#56 Dr. Wanker on 02.22.13 at 12:04 am

#47 Smokey
Well Smokey I predict that you will make a stupid prediction about how RE in 416 will not go down.

#57 Cory on 02.22.13 at 12:05 am

When people try to peddle that something is great for me to buy, I ask if there is so much cash to be made with a house purchase then why are you simply trying to score an easy commission? Why not sink your money into this “great” guaranteed investment ? Then comes the silence.

#58 John Dominsas on 02.22.13 at 12:06 am

#33 Mic D’angelo My friend in 1995 bought a small fixer upper and he saved net $50,000. This was when houses in Scarborough resales were $180,000. He bought it for $105,000 and he fixed it up except paying for the electrical and spent $25,000 basement,kitchen and bath fully renovated.

He had an account at Midland Walwyn in 1995 but now it’s CIBC Wood Gundy and his investment adviser told him to buy Canadian a 30 year strip bond maturing in 2025 because government bond yields reached their peak. He told me it was the best move he did investing $50,000 in his RRSP at 9.13%. The maturity value is $687,534.76 in 12 years from now.

He had no more RRSP room but invested the $20,000 refund in his wife’s name since she little income. The maturity date is 2020 and the bond yield is 8.89%. In 7 years the maturity value is $168,162.80. They have no mortgage and are retired now at both 61 years old receiving $1,075.27 per month in early C.P.P.. He told me that they are debt free and have an additional investments of $575,000 in dividend paying shares just yielding 4.12% and $53,000 in TFSA’s in provincial bonds paying annual interest at 4.25% due in 2035.

#59 Ralph Cramdown on 02.22.13 at 12:12 am

#34 Bottoms_Up
I’m not going to get into dollar details, but I’m renting and spending 13% of family salary (not income, just salary) on shelter*. That would include, for owners who want to compare, the mortgage, taxes, heat, hydro, water, structure and liability insurance. Do I get to count the savings on car insurance because we’re close to superb transit making the car occasional use? The intangible value of having the kid in a public school whose quality is commensurate with living in one of the ten richest postal codes in the country? Freedom 55 is alive and well, whether or not we choose to buy.

* notavailableinallprovincesresultsmayvarynotintendedasinvestmentadvicepleaseconsultalawyerbeforetakinginternally

#60 Paully on 02.22.13 at 12:24 am

He should go to Vegas to pyramid his losses!

#61 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.22.13 at 12:27 am

It’s been my experience..via ancient papyrus polls ..oh..at least since the dinosaurs that ITALIAN’s are voted as hot.

That sensual mediterranean “come hither” look ..the tanned olive skin……the aim to please….

Anyway….. that should keep Dr Wayne busy…

(PS in a future post I will talk about the women…)

#62 Patiently Waiting on 02.22.13 at 12:35 am

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is the 3rd largest real estate board in Canada. Only 27 sales today, and not one over the million dollar mark. In fact the highest sale was only $767,500. This is a bad sign … unless of course your liquid and waiting … LOL

pw

#63 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.22.13 at 12:35 am

Quote:

“The leapfrogging currently underway allows purchasers to gain greater equity with each move, accumulating wealth in the interim,” says the ReMax report. “They recognize that very few financial vehicles allow them to do that with the security, tangibility and dual purpose that homeownership represents.”
==============================

Listen:

Leapfrogging is OK…..unless you get stuck…

PS: Dr Wayne is exempt…for obvious reasons.

#64 :):( Ying Yang on 02.22.13 at 12:43 am

The S&M crew at Re-Max, does that stand for Spaniards & Mexicans?
Sólo pregunto Garth?

#65 Rob on 02.22.13 at 12:44 am

Hey Garth, dont forget to mention the lower mainland (surrey, delta,langley) for some reason people agree Vancouver RE is a bubble but the rest of the lower mainland wont be affected. Yeah right,

#66 Becca on 02.22.13 at 12:47 am

What a great read. Good entertainment and a great reality check.
I couldn’t help wonder what other factors will drag down the condo market here in Vancouver. As I type, a crew of mould removing experts are ripping my kitchen walls out to get rid of the black stuff in the walls. The Hepa filters and dehumidifiers are doing a good job and I have stopped coughing my brains out.
I always laugh when Garth calls this the mouldy city. Nothing could be more close to the truth and I think in a few years all hell will break loose in this city when they finally try to address this huge health issue. That should really help accelerate the drop in prices.
But what I was wonder, Garth, was what you think of this new “Depreciation Report” that is required by all stratas in the mouldy province. The condo fees are already high (probably inpart due to crappy workmanship..etc) and from what I have found, this will put fees much higher.
For those that want a lite read check out
http://www.housing.gov.bc.ca/strata/regs/

Also for good entertainment check out
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/
I’m not sure of the credibility but I think it’s a close example of the more greedy bunch of sap sucking real estate flippers caught with there panties down..

#67 The Man From Nantucket on 02.22.13 at 12:50 am

#41 a prairie dawg on 02.21.13 at 11:06 pm
Propane!?!……..

…….“Muddy for Nuthin’.” ……..

……… “There’s a Bathroom on the Right.”

_______________________________________

Excuse me, while I kiss this guy .

#68 Uh Oh Canada on 02.22.13 at 12:52 am

The graph must be fake since it doesn’t show stats for Montreal.

#69 Renter's Revenge! on 02.22.13 at 12:54 am

According to the developer of the Penthouse on Princess project, the units are finding more interest from outsiders than native Winnipegers! Well no sh!t, Sherlock! Nobody from Winnipeg wants to live downtown.

Also, apparently many people didn’t like the fact that there are no parking spots associated the units, and that the closest lot was a block away on foot. Big surprise there! Not!

Good for a laugh or two:

http://www.economicdevelopmentwinnipeg.com/media-centre/winnipeg-in-the-news/read,103569/238/downtown-rental-market-hot-conversion-of-two-condo-projects-helping-to-fill-big-need

#70 Drill Baby Drill on 02.22.13 at 12:57 am

To all on this pathetic blog. We can wax poetic all we want here but market forces will find equilibrium and cast aside all those who spent unwisely on RE. The economy will eventually float to the surface all of the carcasses of the economically marginally equipped and the bones will be ripe for the picking buy value investors.
This is Darwins Law.

#71 think again on 02.22.13 at 12:59 am

Paradigms rarely change even when you lose half your nest egg.
Trophy wife, trophy car and trophy HOUSE all come at a price…interesting times!

#72 Patiently Waiting on 02.22.13 at 1:02 am

Looks like the HAM are showing up after all … only thing is they are selling not buying … maybe we should call them HAS (Hot Asian Sellers) … I did a quick survey of the White Rock single family home market tonight and found 95 Asian sellers out of a total of 751 listings … many of whome only recently bought these homes …

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1273368730&s=BRC&t=BRC

pw

#73 Gunboat denier on 02.22.13 at 1:02 am

53 Herb – Garth is part of the FIRE industry (the ‘F’ part)

11 Smokey – for you

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cqlulbi2Po

#74 :):( Ying Yang on 02.22.13 at 1:06 am

I had a business associate from San Diego drop in the other day and we breifly chatted about the economy for a shot time. Then the discussion turned to real estate when he looked at me and who in the hell would want to pay $900,000 for what he called a piece of crap in Toronto. He said Canada’s home prices are just plain stupid. He said Toronto is not even a desirable place to live as far as he was concerned. He’s correct why are we paying some much for crappy homes in a city that’s about to collapse under its own over priced pretentious self absorbed fat ass. Well real estate industry look what you have created here in Toronto, an enigma, a false world class city with no where for the priced to go except for down.

#75 Twooping on 02.22.13 at 1:08 am

Listings in Greater Van are at 15,000 and about to eclipse the record set in 2009 for February. March and April will surely be one for the record books of inventory.

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-15K-party-party-party

#76 Boombust on 02.22.13 at 1:09 am

GREEK Leapfrog?

…he begins the leap, but he does not complete it…

#77 Robbie on 02.22.13 at 1:18 am

#51 Glorious Investor
Well, you are perhaps not acknowledging that the Romans were very familiar with Mount Etna, an active volcano, and Virgil wrote a poem about its eruptions (and some of the warning signs) in 395 BC. The signs were there for those to chose to look logically at them. Pliny the Elder took ships over to investigate the eruption of Vesuvius…he died (a victim of optimism and exuberance). Pliny the Younger decided to stay put across the bay (obvious a temperate person, not given to sudden, rash actions), in relative safety, and then when the most obvious signs of the eruption happened, he moved quickly to get out of harm’s way….and wrote an excellent narrative afterwards.

Think how much better off the residents of Pompeii would have been if Garth had an advice column in the Daily Vesuvian. He would have likely pointed out the signs of possible eruptions and advised reducing your real estate holdings near a volcano. I suspect he would also have suggested diversifying your Forum stock and going long on the lions and short on the gladiators. :)

#78 The end is nigh on 02.22.13 at 1:26 am

Garth,
Stock markets are down again.
This will not end well.

The S&P up 5.3% YTD, and 10.33% y/y. Down 0.63% yesterday. Gold down 12.3% y/y. — Garth

#79 The move-up — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 02.22.13 at 1:34 am

[…] via The move-up — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#80 Oakvillian on 02.22.13 at 1:48 am

Garth,

Remax has won big time and you have lost.

5 – NiLL. Game over.

Won what? — Garth

#81 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.22.13 at 1:48 am


“Obviously, this is too big to fail. How can that possibly be an issue? The realtors. The banks. The media. The huddled masses, yearning. And who better to arouse property lust than the S&M crew at ReMax?” — So the banks, realtors and m$m are all into S&M? Figures!
*
#1 TurnerNation and #2 Vicpaul — I was thinking more along the lines of “A Pitbull Named Botox”, but your versions will do just fine!
*
A sentence re: Nothing at all: “Since his presidency, Bill Clinton has made 98 million dollars from speaking fees.” (John Thomson, Castanet.net.) That’s the great thing about politics — say BS to sheeple, then get paid for saying the same stuff to others.
*
No Currency Wars? “The end goal is to transform the IMF into a global Federal Reserve, with the ability to flood the world with huge new volumes of loans and currency. It would also wield vast financial regulatory powers.”; Preferred Shares Good explanation; 1968 Min. Wage 40% of Americans less than that; Jon Korzine avoids lifetime trading ban; Germany Family lives with no money and gets along just fine; Private Central Banks, aka Satan, but The Hounds of the Baskervilles on Wall St. are scratching furiously; Iran’s economy doing well, in spite of US sanctions; and Iran Building new refinery in Pakistan; Banxters’ Bowels Prunes and Preparation H are good cures; Horsemeat consequences; France — Merde! Philly Mfg. shrinks; Headline sums up the state of the nation; Wal-MartTaking over small towns.
*
3:34 clip Tret, Super Dog; 1:43 clip Google Cheat View; Niagara Falls Another loonie bin wants to dive; Appetizing? Methinx not; Rubiks Cubes Finally found a purpose in life; UK prepping for WW3, and China ticked at UK; 7:29 clip Big Bang theory rubbished; Falkland Islands US refuses to recognize referendum; Smart Meters Not very; Pix in Google’s new laptop.

#82 DreamingInTechnicolour on 02.22.13 at 2:06 am

It never ceases to amaze me how people can think that they are doing well even when they owe more than they own – the truth is they would have a negative net worth – e.g. below zero !

#83 Aaron on 02.22.13 at 2:16 am

Hope everyone is buying the G&S Dips. Long: DOG. Short: QQQ, JPM, PG, CSCO & SPY.

#84 len on 02.22.13 at 2:40 am

“100k loss on condo in Calgary? Under normal circumstances it does not happen… I am suspicious of the story told”

Easy. There have been quite a few stories where development was so shoddy that whole envelopes had to be replaced at owner’s expense. We have three sets of friends who purchased in such buildings and got special assessments for repairs. In the most awful case (the condo on 17th ave and 14th street) the couple we know had to ponny up $124K on a tiny 2 bedroom appartment. They bought recently, had no equity, and ended up borrowing from parents. Baby on the way – they will be underwater for years and years.

Another friend bought a house 20 minutes commute from Calgary in Cochrane – the McManshion type in a new development. Their retaining wall started cracking and potential buyers requested engineering assessment: the town allowed development of a partially drained swamp and several houses are sliding down the hill. No recourse. They are not ever moving – unless the house moves with them, that is.

I am not kidding. The greed in Calgary has inflated even faster than prices and incomes. I have been here since 1991 and the place just manages to out-do itself year by year. Young people come because they think they can get ahead but the place just gets away from them. Sorry to say.

#85 Aussie Roy on 02.22.13 at 3:03 am

#38Ty on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm

Two truths that people are ignoring here on this blog (that smoking man says but no one listens)

1) people will never give up their houses – it will take a catastrophe to do so. They will cut corners everywhere else if need be or take on more debt. Why? To keep up with their friends. Thats all life is about- facebook, pinterest, instagram.

2) boomers will never sell either. See above – their offspring learned well from them and essentially are boomers 2.0 when it comes to keeping up with the joneses.

Hate to say it but its true – you all underestimate the herd

…………………………………………………………………………

LOL, we know it’s herd driven. The difference being some of us have taken notice what has happened to other “never happen here, coz it’s different, herds” around the world.

Maybe it’s you who underestimate how easily the herds current thinking can change?.

#86 juno on 02.22.13 at 3:03 am

24 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.21

=============

It just dawn on me. The property virgins has been taking advise from their parents and CREA. Ok lets just step back a bit.

Most of the boomers can’t even save money for their own retirement and are screw.

Then CREA – use car salesmen selling real estate instead of run down lemons.

Virgins you really have to take a closer look in the mirror. Your life is basically over, you’ll be paying off this debt for the rest of you sorry ass life. You have died before you began to live!

#87 Cashed Out on 02.22.13 at 3:05 am

OK I’ll add another voice from Victoria BC on the real savings of renting vs a declining RE Market.
I sold my semi-rural mini farm in May 2010. As it turns out this was the peak valuation month in this district of Victoria. Comparing the 6month average price then to now and applying the percentage of decrease to my selling price I would have $95,000 less in my jeans. Add to that mortgage interest, property taxes and reasonably low maintenance charges that would have accumulated during these almost 3 yrs you get approx. $26,300.
My total rent paid during this time $36,400 no taxes, no maintenance. So to recap…

Still owning cost to net worth $121,300
Renting cost – $ 36,400
————-
$ 84,900 to the good in 33 months. That’s $2,572 a month for those scoring at home. Oh wait that doesn’t include my investment earnings and tax savings for that period of time. Add another $64,000.
So put that in your pipe Mr Bottoms Up. These figures are accurate and the Victoria market is still clearly declining.

#88 Mr Buyer on 02.22.13 at 3:34 am

#38 Ty on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm
Hate to say it but its true – you all underestimate the herd
…………………………………………………………
I think you have underestimated the much maligned herd. This is the opening act of the collapse of our massive real estate bubble. 21 straight years of property price decline and counting. The friend of a friend of a friend network is already rife with “the guy’s house is worth less than the mortgage on it” and this is only the beginning of the beginning.

#89 gran on 02.22.13 at 3:51 am

#65 Rob, agreed!

Garth you need to touch on this in an upcoming post.

From my experiences in Vancouver trying to educate the sheep out here….

I find that finally the sheeple in the lowermainland (Greater Vancouver) will now admit that there is a bubble, but claim that only Vancouver westside, West Vancouver,
and Richmond will take a hit.

It’s just so frustrating having to constantly battle stupid!

Like somehow its still different in suburbs like ladner, tsawwassen, surrey, burnaby, coquitlam, new west, and langley

#90 Buy? Curious? on 02.22.13 at 3:54 am

Garth, Two Words: REALITY SHOW! Think about it, some dough head, like Sal, walks into your office, full of Bravado, then you show him the risk he’s putting his family in, you do the financial equivalent of Simon Cowell or better, Ari Gold from Entourage, he breaks down in tears, you do what you do best, mockingly give good sound financial advice (toss in some Life lessons for good measure) and POW! instant hit! Oh wait! One more idea, you have a hot sassy, assistant that occasionally throws out a comment that balances out your strong personality.

Whaddya say?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0bOw1lqxBc

or can you at least update the look of the website?

#91 TCH on 02.22.13 at 3:57 am

You and your readers should arrange a trip to Spain. I am sure Spaniards thought it’s different here.
America got hit hard, but this country got nuked.

We drove from Basque country to the Costa del Sol, the same everywhere. Completely empty condo complexes along the hoghways, concrete skeletons and more FOR SALE signs than you imagine.

#92 Devore on 02.22.13 at 4:04 am

#11 Smoking Man

I remember when I bought my first place paid like 50k…..people where telling me why, house are over priced.

They usually say that when prices are about hitting bottom. They say prices are too high not because they actually are, but because they can think of about a million things they’d rather do with their money other than buy a house. No one ever questions a buy decision when the bubble wave is cresting.

Just saying

Just saying what?

#93 Mr Buyer on 02.22.13 at 4:32 am

That is 21 straight years of property price decline in Japan and counting

#94 JuliaS on 02.22.13 at 4:59 am

How strangely appropriate that Remax chose an inflated balloon to be their logo.

#95 Francis on 02.22.13 at 5:22 am

Publish that book !

#96 Freedom First on 02.22.13 at 5:38 am

Garth, I had a revelation while reading your blog the past week. I was reading your blog, when suddenly, out of nowhere, I was struck by a lightning bolt of great awareness, revealing to me a whole new perspective on your blog.

There I was, reading your blog, written with the usual humour, wit, truth, knowledge, wisdom and unique creative delivery you are famous and adored for, and it hit me! I am loving the truth and information, while being pleasantly amused, laughing as I read. Suddenly, I got it. Some people are reading your blog with a different perspective. The RE industry, Banking/Mortgage industry, Developers, Builders, Sherry, Brad, MIL’s, Wives, House horny virgins, RE brainwashed herd thinking masses, etc. are reading your blog with hostility, anger, homicidal rage and no laughter.

Now, I know from the many people who thank you often for saving their financial ase$$/futures, your blog is very much needed and valuable. For the people in the above paragraph : This blog= Priceless:) …….Thank you Garth! Please continue, you do good work!

#97 Jooks on 02.22.13 at 6:00 am

My parents have been renting for 11 years in a basement at a prime location, near a convenient skytrain station in Vancouver. For $950/month, around 1000 sq ft, open kitchen and living room, 3.5 bedroom, 1 washroom, 2 parking spaces and an awesome landlord. It is definitely possible to find a decent place to rent. Don’t tell me it’s not. If you’re single like my student cousin, he found a great place for $550. And my friend’s rent is $650.

There’s nothing wrong with renting! Especially with the amount of money you save from not paying mortgage goes towards an awesome vacation or investment.

#98 Not 1st on 02.22.13 at 6:01 am

Garth according to that chart, Regina is the most screwed market in canada.

#99 Other side of the pond on 02.22.13 at 6:08 am

As a former resident of the GTA and now resident in Spain, I can safely say that RE prices in Canada are doing the impossible: levitating. Six years ago I visited Spain and it felt like Canada in terms of general sentiment toward real estate. NOTHING could be had for under 4500 per m2 (approx $600 per s.f). I recently purchased a home in one of Spain´s largest cities and paid abiut 1200 euro per m2. or $150 per sf. Here NOONE believes prices will ever return to what they were and EVERYONE believes prices will keep falling. Sound familiar? Remember 1990-1995 in Ontario? Prices will return here to where they were in about 20 years just as they have in Canada about 20 years after the bursting of the 90´s bubble. Clearly, they cycle in Canada is turning down. It´s not a question of if but when.

#100 EIT on 02.22.13 at 7:51 am

There’s a sucker born everyday, and thanks to the internet, you can find him.

#101 Tony Right on 02.22.13 at 8:46 am

Just make make your scam big enough, and the government will deem it too big to fail, just like in the U.S. Prudent savers and investors left holding the bag.

#102 Ballingsford on 02.22.13 at 9:22 am

Desktop computer crashed a couple of days ago and I have been following the blog on my galaxy 3. Seriously thinking now to cancel my land line and internet and save $100 bucks a month. More to invest!!!

#103 Dr. WAYNE on 02.22.13 at 9:32 am

What a waste this blog has been – Garth

=========================

I really don’t think it is a waste at all. It very effectively provides those of us with even the slightest intelligence (in excess of IQ 7, which obviously excludes Smoking Man of course) and foresight, that some of us made the right decisions … decisions strengthened by what we read here. In addition it generates a profound and stupefying question “How can some people be so stupid”. Following the ‘sensible/researched’ decision you made, one can then hug their wife, girl friend, mistress, dog, gerbil, or blow up doll (with a slight resemblance to Angelina Jolie [the lips being the main selling feature] and confidently say “Thank God I … 1) Listened to Garth; 2) Did not listen to those shyster realtors; and/or 3) Told my mother-in-law to get stuffed.

Whether or not the Venerable one realizes it or not (which, of course, he does but is too modest to blow his own horn … no wait, he ‘isn’t’ to modest to blow his own horn … scratch that), many (check out the recent poll) visit this site for comfort, reassurance (that some really dumb people can actually type), advice, and/or it humour.

Charge on !!!

#104 maxx on 02.22.13 at 9:34 am

#19 blase on 02.21.13 at 10:28 pm

Excellent points, however, they probably fall on deaf ears.
Small wonder that medicine and government pensions are now at risk, not to mention most social programs. Forced austerity due to gross government mismanagement. It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
A possible light at the end of the tunnel is that the U.S. seems to be starting to make noises about changing how the fed manages the economy, before it becomes irretrievably doomed.
Meantime, more Canucks are taking money out of their RSPs to cover RE purchases, but also to pay down debt and cover day-to-day expenses. (National Post, 20 Feb).
Ouch.

#105 Mocha on 02.22.13 at 9:39 am

That picture is no joke!

I worked at a gas station in high school and one day some guy lit up a smoke while I was filling his 20 pound tank, with the large tank situated only a couple feet away. Stupid people…

#106 Stickler on 02.22.13 at 10:16 am

Add in the fact that no new subdivisions are building houses for less in the GTA.

Ever go to a new development and say I want a new 1500 SF bungalow?…they are not and wont build them.

#107 bluejeans on 02.22.13 at 10:18 am

Saw this today and it made me cry …

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-Amazing-Original-Condition-Annex-Home-Attention-Renovators-W0QQAdIdZ457889381

This property listed at $979K and sold for 1.1M. How can anyone think this is a good investment? How can anyone ordinary afford this? Listed as an “Original-Condition Annex Home” – real-estate speak for junk heap.

No doubt the new owners will drop another $100K to renovate it.

Real Estate and Renos are the crazy-bus but everyone is STILL getting on board. Why?

#108 Inglorious Investor on 02.22.13 at 10:40 am

#77 Robbie on 02.22.13 at 1:18 am

Erratum: Virgil may have written a first-hand account of an Etna eruption, but that would have been in the first century BC, not 395 BC. Not sure why the Pompeiians did not recognize the warning signs, but everything I’ve read on the subject clearly explains they did not.

“Think how much better off the residents of Pompeii would have been if Garth had an advice column in the Daily Vesuvian.”

I like it! “Morionis Magnus” by Joannis Garthus Turnius!

#109 TCH on 02.22.13 at 10:44 am

#98 Other side of the pond
We are in Marbella right now and are wondering about getting our feet wet.
Sometime later in 2013. Where did you end up buying?
how do you like it over here?

#110 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.22.13 at 10:57 am

Turning condos and homes into rentals, yeeshhh.

But not for two major developers who’ve now given up trying to sell their already-built condos in downtown Winnipeg. The Penthouse on Princess and the H2O development have become 152 rental units, after sales fell off a cliff. In fact, only 15 units were purchased, reflecting a condo reality also impacting Toronto, where prices have already tumbled over 8% in the past year.

Lord help us if that starts to come about here in Toronto. I have already seen these changes many years ago in a GTA suburb with single-family homes. The homeowners sold out at top dollar and foreign investors came in and scooped up SFH’s as well as full a condo building that failed to launch. The result was a ghetto building full of renters and a beautiful residential suburban neighborhood of SFH’s transformed into ghetto number two. Within each one of these large single-family homes were two or three separate families. The result was disastrous for some acquaintances that lived in the same neighborhood. Their property values plummeted as the renters slowly destroyed these beautiful suburban homes. The streets were littered, the properties were never taken care of, the streets were a parking disaster with up to four or five dilapidated Lada’s and rusting old Chevy’s sitting in the driveway and sometimes parking on the lawn. I hate to say it but a lot of renters have a rather obtuse attitude about the property that they live in. “It’s not mine so I don’t give a dam, why should I care if I scratched the wall, or the carpet is marked. That is the owners problem” Now we come to problem number two, the property owners or property mangers. If they do not have any pride in ownership or care to keep the mind-set of a high caliber in their business then we all suffer. The renters need to be kept in line by the property owners or mangers. When I am overseas on business and I have to rent a home, vehicle or office space I treat it as if it was my own. I know it is not mine but someone owns it and it should be kept in good order. I have rental properties myself and know what it is like to have something you own ruined.
Some properties that were intended for sale should not be turned into rentals. What could be worse for these investors who did purchase is they are in the mix now with the (I don’t give a dam crowd) as they watch their property value decline. I am not saying all renters have this mentality but some do!

#111 mark on 02.22.13 at 11:11 am

Re/Max seem as evil as Goldman Sachs in Canada.

#112 Buy? Curious? on 02.22.13 at 11:20 am

Dr Wayne has struck down Smokie Man with a bolt of literary lightning and with it has taken the crown of Greaterfool.ca’s Most Awesome Poster!

All hail the king! Long live the king!

While I’m here, Dr Wayne, would mind checking my prostate?

#113 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.22.13 at 11:36 am

Rumour has it that Dr. Wayne is charging the Medicare Plan for each post, claiming he is dispensing expert advice.

…..and here I thought it was a bullsh*t placebo.

#114 Grantmi on 02.22.13 at 11:43 am

Oscar Pistorius’s defense doesn’t have a leg to stand on.

#115 Chickenlittle on 02.22.13 at 11:53 am

Oakvillian on 02.22.13 at 1:48 am
Garth,

Remax has won big time and you have lost.

5 – NiLL. Game over.

Won what? — Garth

They won a balloon…an overinflated one at that.

#116 Dr. WAYNE on 02.22.13 at 11:58 am

#110 Buy? Curious? on 02.22.13 at 11:20 am

While I’m here, Dr Wayne, would mind checking my prostate?

=====================

Bend over … I’ll do anything for money …

#117 HAM Sandwhich on 02.22.13 at 12:00 pm

Recently sold in Vancouver, now renting.
Thanks Garth and dogs for the advice and good humour!
May never buy a house again.

Cheers!

#118 broadway skytrain on 02.22.13 at 12:01 pm

todays headlines…

Canada January inflation lowest in 3 years

Canada retail sales unexpectedly drop 2.1 percent in December

Euro zone economy to shrink again in 2013, EU says

when do rates drop further?

They don’t. — Garth

#119 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 02.22.13 at 12:01 pm

I actually sent Garth a PHOTO of this awhile back, now its posted on VREAA blog

Large Abandoned Richmond SFH Construction Site For Sale – “Assessed value is $2,300,000. Asking $1,888,888 for quick sale.”

“Ad posted in Richmond News Feb 15.
10111 Sidaway Road, Richmond
4 Acre Estate Property, located in area of multi million dollar mansions and is adjacent to Mylora Golf Course.
The property was under construction in 2011 but construction was stopped.
House plans currently include a permit to build a 16,000 square foot house, but buyer can change the plans and build on the Engineer approved foundation that is on site.
Value of foundation is in excess of $300,000 and the assessed value of the property is $2,300,000.
Asking firm price of $1,888,888 for quick sale.

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2013/02/20/large-abandoned-richmond-sfh-construction-site-for-sale-assessed-value-is-2300000-asking-1888888-for-quick-sale/

=================================
I’ve driven by it frequently.
It’ll be (2) years since they stopped, the framing is turning gray and black. I am curious why they wouldn’t have built at least the roof or close to “lock up”…… implying the person probably didn’t have any bank funding.

Unless one follows the same floor-plan, the foundation is useless. I’m going to guess it will sell for in the $1.4 million range.

BTW, the 37 acre golf course a few doors over, Mylora, sold for $5.5 Million.

#120 Dr. WAYNE on 02.22.13 at 12:01 pm

#111 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.22.13 at 11:36 am

Rumour has it that Dr. Wayne is charging the Medicare Plan for each post, claiming he is dispensing expert advice.

=======================

I AM NOT … now if I was a Liberal parliamentarian in BC, one would expect this from this band of charlatans, except it would be fancy dinners, conferences, trips, and exotic wines charged to us taxpayers.

#121 Mixed Bag on 02.22.13 at 12:07 pm

#83 len on 02.22.13 at 2:40 am

We have three sets of friends who purchased in such buildings and got special assessments for repairs. In the most awful case (the condo on 17th ave and 14th street) the couple we know had to ponny up $124K on a tiny 2 bedroom appartment.

—-

See, this is why condos are stupid. You spend a ridiculous amount of money on a residence over which you have NO control. You have no choice in who does the maintenance, how much they charge (is it a brother of someone on the board?), assessments and who will do the repairs (another board member’s brother-in-law?), what can be put on your balcony, windows or unit door. This may not be an issue for some people, but I chafe at the lack of control over something that is mine (is it really?). For all the restrictions and strings attached, condos should cost MUCH less to be worth buying at all.

The only control you have is getting the inspection before you buy.

#122 Mixed Bag on 02.22.13 at 12:23 pm

“Obviously, this is too big to fail. What a waste this blog has been.”

You’re fighting a way of thinking that was imprinted on people as they grew up. That is a hard thing to fight. Sal and other similar folks know enough to contact you, but it’s hard to accept that which counters what they’ve been taught in their impressionable and learning years. It truly is, forgive the cliche, a paradigm shift, in the minds of people for whom real estate is the holy grail. Half the battle (all of it?) is realizing this, not intellectually, but in that “a-ha” way where it clicks.

#123 Tom from Mississuga on 02.22.13 at 12:28 pm

BMO study says maybe 77% of RRSP assets are in cash and fixed income. So many have missed the equity rally back.

http://newsroom.bmo.com/press-releases/bmo-study-mutual-funds-are-backbone-of-canadians–tsx-bmo-201302210854759001

#124 Small Town Steve on 02.22.13 at 12:37 pm

Can someone kick BMO-investorline in the pants so they will discount trade ETF’s? I really like the interface but as a small investor 29.99 per trade can really eat up gains if you have to rebalance more than once per year.
I have thought about going to Questrade or VB but have heard very mixed stories. Some good and some really horrible. (Will probably be 2 years before I can muster up 100k to invest with you Garth.)

#125 Denise on 02.22.13 at 12:39 pm

I don’t think #24 Victoria Real Estate Update is a troll. She’s trying to educate people in her age bracket, open their eyes, encourage them to read, listen, learn. She does vary her post, it isn’t always exactly the same. Good for her for taking the time!

#126 AK on 02.22.13 at 12:42 pm

#102 Dr. WAYNE on 02.22.13 at 9:32 am

“3) Told my mother-in-law to get stuffed.”

——————————————————————-
LOL. :-)

Very well said DR. WAYNE. Have you ever considered starting your own Blog?

#127 Suede on 02.22.13 at 12:43 pm

Not to take away from the best pathetic blog in the western hemisphere, but someone else is starting a blog, albeit paid.

oh boy

signs of desperation/trouble #125:

http://vancouverisawesome.com/

#128 Doug in London on 02.22.13 at 12:48 pm

@Other side of the pond, post #98:
Good posting, I think you’re right that what happened in Spain is coming to Canada just like in the early 1990’s. History really does repeat itself. Isn’t it odd that now prices have become cheap in Spain that there are few buyers? Shouldn’t all those people who wanted to buy when prices were high but were priced out be in a mad panic to buy up all those dirt cheap properties now? Congratulations for taking advantage of a good buying opportunity most people missed.

#129 refinow on 02.22.13 at 12:50 pm

Person buys an $800,000 house and sells their current $450,000 house.

Lets look at the revenue that gets generated. from this transaction.

RE Commission for the $800,000 purchase $40,000
HST on the $40,000 commission $5200
RE Commission on the $450,000 sale $22,500
HST on the RE Fee $2925
Lawyer’s Fee for purchase and sale $2000
HST on the Lawyers fee 260
Land Transfer on the $800,000 house $12,475
If house was in Toronto $11,725
Land transfer tax on the $450,000 house $5475
if house was in Toronto $4725
$800,000 house was bought with 5% down
CMHC Premium $20900
PST on the CMHC Fee $1672
Home inspection on each home (450 X 2) 900
$450,000 home was purchased with 5% down
CMHC Premium $12375
PST on the CMHC fee $990
Lawyers fee for new buyer of $450k home $1500
Now also keep in mind the realtors pay income tax on the RE commissions of say 35% $21875
There are Mortgage broker commissions for
sourcing these 2 mortgages $10,000
Income tax on Mortgage broker commission $3500

Total monies generate because of these clients decided to move from their current $450,000 home and buy a new $800,000 house…………… $180997

This one purchase and sale has created $180997 in monies transferring from A to B

This is what has been the gas running the vast global economy….. for the last 20 years Now keep multiplying by how many transactions like this happen everyday. The numbers are quite staggering….

Wow…I just surprised myself.

#130 blase on 02.22.13 at 1:03 pm

To all the folks who say that Calgary is different, I encourage you to google $500,000 home in Calgary, and $500,000 home in Dallas or Houston. Then consider that in Texas the energy sector is booming, while in Alberta they are running a huge deficit and layoffs are taking place. This is going to end very, very badly for Calgarians.

#131 Dr. WAYNE on 02.22.13 at 1:13 pm

#124 AK on 02.22.13 at 12:42 pm

#102 Dr. WAYNE on 02.22.13 at 9:32 am

“3) Told my mother-in-law to get stuffed.

========================

Being the honest person that I am, I must tell the truth … the Venerable one did some minor editing. I was just a bit more detailed in what the ‘mother-in-law’ should do with her procreative organs … ‘by herself’.

#132 coastal on 02.22.13 at 1:19 pm

#72 Patiently Waiting,

Agree on the HAM turning into HAS. Their washing machines for dirty money says is time to truly cash in and take out the “now clean” cash. They take a 20% or more hair cut, but they don’t care, they got most of it for free and it’s the price of doing business to clean it up.

When I hear the Victoria agents singing “multiple bids” and it’s not even the end of February when the market is in the tank, you just know the jig is up. The Wizards of Oz will soon be unmasked.

#133 juno on 02.22.13 at 1:30 pm

#38 Ty on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm

Two truths that people are ignoring here on this blog (that smoking man says but no one listens)

1) people will never give up their houses – it will take a catastrophe to do so. They will cut corners everywhere else if need be or take on more debt. Why? To keep up with their friends. Thats all life is about- facebook, pinterest, instagram.

2) boomers will never sell either. See above – their offspring learned well from them and essentially are boomers 2.0 when it comes to keeping up with the joneses.

Hate to say it but its true – you all underestimate the herd
==============
Yep right-o matie!

I can see people aren’t giving up their houses in Las Vegas and the rest of the good ole USA. Also in greece spain etc.

The reason why people haven’t given up their house yet is because there no pressure. Yet

Last weekend I visited friends from Victoria who bought in 2011. Near the peak, but a bit below. They thought it was wonderful how they cut the price by 10,000 and what a deal they had.

Flash forward 2013. If they sold now they would lose their downpayment and still be under water. Ever month the price of their house seems to drop and they huge mortgage payments are killing them.

And they haven’t even had any major repair bill yet. They are mad, but what can you do. Better yet what can they do? Ride this out for the next 30 years. basically having no life at all.

The Stress will eventually get to them

Its sad how all the virgins has fallen prey to the predictory lenders.

What will happen if the shit hits the fan.

The banks will wash their hands to it CMHC will run out of money. Who’s going to spot the Billions of bad debt?

#134 panhead on 02.22.13 at 1:45 pm

#88 gran on 02.22.13 at 3:51 am

Like somehow its still different in suburbs like ladner, tsawwassen, surrey, burnaby, coquitlam, new west, and langley

———————————————————–

Oh, it’s not different out here. I live in Tsawwassen (great place) but a SOLD sign is a rare commodity here indeed.

#135 GTA Girl on 02.22.13 at 1:53 pm

I agree with Big Rider. I live in Vaughan. Most of everyone I know is Italo-Canadian. There is not one person who is not somehow tied to RE. Most are in construction, development, RE Sales, Mortgage companies or trade owners.

In the last 10 years, the change of lifestyle for almost all of them has been overwhelming. A lot of money has been made. From most living in subdivision houses or w/parents after marriage..to now living in custom built homes on big lots, Mercedes, Maseratis and trips to Italy, Bahamas. 40 year olds now living in luxury.

Nothing bad with hard work and making money. But that last couple of years have been like shoveling cash falling from the sky. Those in development have gone from upper middle class, to now a faux billionaire lifestyle. Charters jets, shopping sprees in Dubai, Ferraris custom… Money made fast with little regard for tax laws. Expenses put thru their companies, cash deals, she’ll companies.. A CRA bonanza if uncovered.

When the RE industry falls, it’s going to be a blood bath.

Even made more worse, when it’s revealed that many of these new multi millionaires have no savings, bad gambling habits (among other habits) and no plans for future beyond next month.

Fast money will be lost just as fast.

#136 Holt Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.22.13 at 1:57 pm

Oh how I hate shorting but in this case it worked for RIMM (Blackberry). Ten points not bad. Now waiting for the ride back up the ladder. Thanks for those low cost trades. Holy Crap this is fun riding the Crazy Train. BTW don’t forget about Apple some interesting tid bit for all the doomers out there.

http://beta.fool.com/jaans/2013/02/22/apple-iphone-smashes-samsung/25061/?logvisit=y&published=2013-02-22&source=eptcnnlnk0000001

#137 GTA Girl on 02.22.13 at 2:01 pm

The cliff is suddenly in sight.

Housing starts down 36%

http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2013/2013-02-08-0816.cfm?WT.mc_id=BMAC1101I_WD01E

#138 Smoking Man on 02.22.13 at 2:04 pm

Buy Courious, I don’t respond to the chirp shows, I can attack almost any post, with out hardly trying.

I have no respect for people on hear who don’t offer up original in site and content.

Example if Turner Nation, or Vlad, Or Beach Girl, that would bug me. But Dr Wayne, who goes phyco on any 1rst….

I think my crown is still intact, so what’s up with you… Done making movies

#139 Frank le skank on 02.22.13 at 2:05 pm

– Some boomers will be forced to sell their home to fund their retirement.
– some boomers will sell their home to downsize.
– some boomers will sell because inflation has wiped out their buying power.
– not all boomers fall into the above categories, its not a black and white.

People can only speculate on how will the above scenarios affect the current housing market. If your basing your opinion on the fact that you know someone that retired and lived in their house until they were 80 you need more data. Of course some people can do that. You need to consider the statistical data that we have available for the country pertaining to retirement funds and healthcare, not what your grandmother did.

#140 Frank le skank on 02.22.13 at 2:06 pm

Why are you guys so hard on poor Victoria Real Estate Update?

#141 Hicksville Alberta on 02.22.13 at 2:07 pm

#127 refinow

Outstanding post.

Probably the best post ever.

Thanks!!!

#142 David on 02.22.13 at 2:11 pm

@122 Steve,

Questrade is fine and now they have commission-free ETFs. The only issue I’ve had so far was getting charged a data fee that I did not sign up for when opening an account. They fixed it without a fuss. Like any brokerage it’s prudent to review your transactions for accuracy.

In general I’m quite pleased with Questrade.

#143 Dorothy on 02.22.13 at 2:28 pm

” 59 said “I’m not going to get into dollar details, but I’m renting and spending 13% of family salary (not income, just salary) on shelter*. That would include, for owners who want to compare, the mortgage, taxes, heat, hydro, water, structure and liability insurance.”

We are 3 years away from retirement, live in a small town in the Okanagan and own our home outright. I just did the math, and we spend 5% of our salary on the expenses you list.
Provided you don’t buy a McMansion, but buy what you can afford, and aggressively pay down your mortgage, home ownership is not cost prohibitive once you reach retirement. And the benefits of owning over renting are many.
Renting is fine for those whose lifestyles favour it, but for the majority home ownership is preferable, providing you can afford it. We had to sacrifice a lot over the years in order to be able to buy our home and pay down our mortgage as fast as we could, but at the end of the day it was worth it. Whatever happens to prices, at this stage of our lives, it is simply a paper gain or loss, and not relevant. We do have other monies put aside for our retirement.
What I’m trying to say is that if you’re renting because that lifestyle suits you best, then keep it up. But if you’re renting because you’re waiting for a drop in the housing market (that could take many years before it reaches bottom), then you might like to consider how many years you’re going to put your life on hold while you’re waiting. And how many years will you have left once you do buy to ensure you’re able to pay your mortgage off before heading into retirement?
Also, the strategy of renting and waiting only works if you’re diligent about investing the money you think you’re saving. If you don’t save it all, or even if you do but choose bad investments, you may still be no closer to home ownership even after years of waiting, regardless of whether prices have dropped significantly by then.

#144 not 1st on 02.22.13 at 2:31 pm

#122 Small Town Steve

RBC..$9.95 per trade online flat rate.

#145 Calgaryboomer on 02.22.13 at 2:38 pm

Here is the real problem with the above equation: real estate commission!!!

Were those realtors really worth that much money? What exactly did they do, drive you around and push some paper? I say this because I just sold my rental home with a do it yourself outfit and no realtors (or commissions). And if you want to go on MLS, they supply access thru their brokerage, for not much money. Your house is exposed to all, but you have to pay the buying realtor, unless if you attract a direct buyer, which you might. The paperwork was easy, it’s the lawyer who is worth the money, and that’s supplied at discount also.

We can all eventually get rid of realtors if you only just try yourself, cost is cheap. And get rid of the artificially inflated house price for the realtor cut.

And Garth, hopefully I’ll be thanking you in a year or two, even though it feels like I’m getting out too soon, still looks busy here to me. I’ve been influenced.

#146 Dorothy on 02.22.13 at 3:10 pm

I agree with #143 – people can save a lot of money if they just quit using Realtors. I have sold 4 houses over my lifetime, all privately. It really isn’t all that hard, provided you’re the kind of person who isn’t going to get offended if a prospective buyer says something negative about your house. You don’t want to wind up arguing with a prospective customer!!!!
Once you have reached an agreement on price, the buyers lawyer will prepare a written offer at no cost to you, and if you’re concerned you can always get your own lawyer to look it over before you sign. You really don’t need a Realtor (unless you’re an out of town owner).
Personally I find many (not all) Realtors are modern day “snake oil” salesman, who I try to avoid at all costs. And you’d be wise to do the same.

#147 R.E.S.P. Help on 02.22.13 at 3:10 pm

slightly off topic:

garth, a while back you wrote that the government gives you 500$/year for an RESP, just for “filling out some forms”.

wouldn’t you have to personally contribute 2500.00/year to an RESP in order to receive the “free” 500$…in addition to the paperwork?

i know that if a child chooses eventually NOT to attend post-secondary you can get your own contributions back…but does the grant money get taken away too?

Yes, you must contribute. Yes, the grant money is returned if no school. You can keep the growth. — Garth

#148 AK on 02.22.13 at 3:15 pm

#122 Small Town Steve on 02.22.13 at 12:37 pm
————————————————————–
TD Watehouse.

$9.99 trades:

Canadian & US Equity Trades
$50,000+
In Household Assets Or (30 – 149) Trades/Quarter

#149 happy renter on 02.22.13 at 3:24 pm

A new housing developement in Victoria called Westhills is booming.No price reductions here,hundreds of houses being built over the next few years.With prices in the low $400,000 its still affordable for young families to call a place of their own.

#150 Pr on 02.22.13 at 3:30 pm

The internet! This is may be the worst thing ever happen, to the ones who engineer all this!

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/finance/4574

#151 Carlos on 02.22.13 at 3:33 pm

#127 refinow

Why do people come up/assume unrealistic down payments of 5% on a 500K house and such? Just because Garth says so doesn’t mean it’s happening for all sales.

I have yet to see a report that show’s the avg down payments on various RE price segments.

Just my 2 cents.

#152 bubu on 02.22.13 at 3:38 pm

#93JuliaS on 02.22.13 at 4:59 am
How strangely appropriate that Remax chose an inflated balloon to be their logo.
—————————————-
Now that you made me think of this…
Remax Ballon: Full of hot air, assumed to only go UP, with a basket full of Sheeple in tow.

#153 Ralph Cramdown on 02.22.13 at 3:39 pm

#141 Dorothy — “What I’m trying to say is that if you’re renting because that lifestyle suits you best, then keep it up. But if you’re renting because you’re waiting for a drop in the housing market (that could take many years before it reaches bottom), then you might like to consider how many years you’re going to put your life on hold while you’re waiting. And how many years will you have left once you do buy to ensure you’re able to pay your mortgage off before heading into retirement?”

I’m waiting for a drop. I highly doubt it will take many years, based on what has happened elsewhere and, from what I can tell, of typical household balance sheets here (just read GTA Girl’s description of Vaughan, and current media accounts of household plans for this RRSP season). My life’s not on hold. I’m on track for Freedom 55 whether or not I buy a house.

#154 Dupcheck on 02.22.13 at 3:47 pm

I wonder what the real estate fees were in the 70’s 80’s 90’s compared to the average income of today?
I bet you these rock star real estate agents did not drive that many fancy cars as they do today. But not for long.

This enforces Garth’s analysis: that the real estate market is way over inflated.

#155 Victor V on 02.22.13 at 3:48 pm

#19 blase on 02.21.13 at 10:28 pm

Hoping for a blog posting soon about how the changes in CMHC insurance are affecting the banks. What’s the word in the finance community? When does this gas bag blow up in the face of the government who is backing $800+ billion in loans? What about all the billions in HELOCs they are also on the hook for? What do the changes do to the books of the big banks for funding in terms of MBS’? What about the private insurers and the credit unions? Hoping for you to dig in to these topics so we can see what happens when the tide has gone out in 6 months-1 year from now.

==============

How are the big banks doing? Here’s what would have happened if you’d invested in RY 6 months ago.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RY.TO&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Slightly better than putting your money in the orange guy’s shorts…no?

#156 Derek R on 02.22.13 at 4:14 pm

#143 Calgaryboomer on 02.22.13 at 2:38 pm wrote
And Garth, hopefully I’ll be thanking you in a year or two, even though it feels like I’m getting out too soon, still looks busy here to me. I’ve been influenced.

Better a year too soon than a minute too late. I sold up in Calgary last July and I don’t regret it one bit. The amount of money I’m saving on mortgage payments alone have made it worthwhile, never mind the savings on maintenance, repairs and insurance.

#157 Victor V on 02.22.13 at 4:17 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/some-vancouver-workers-have-been-priced-right-out-of-the-country/article8970952/

There was a time when the typical upper middle-class family could afford a big house in the nice part of Vancouver, belong to the nearby country club and put the kids through private school.

When it became the norm to have to fork over $2-million-plus for a house on the west side, even professional wages couldn’t keep up.

At least one man has found a way to maintain the upper-middle-class dream without going into major debt to do so. Eric Murray is chief executive officer of growing clean-tech company Tantalus Systems, based in Burnaby, B.C. Mr. Murray, however, lives in Raleigh, N.C., where he owns a 3,500-square-foot house and puts his three kids through private school.

#158 Frank le skank on 02.22.13 at 4:18 pm

#135 GTA Girl on 02.22.13 at 2:01 pm

Excellent link.

The Preliminary Housing Start Data from the CMHC site is very telling. Every major province is in double digit negative housing starts with the exception of the Praries, but hey, its different there!! Given the fact that such a large portion of Canadian GDP is dependant on Real Estate, you have to wonder what type of problems will result in a slowdown in housing construction. Small reductions housing starts has major impacts on jobs, people with jobs pay taxes, buy houses and so on. In Canada, the Year over Year change in housing starts in -26%.

#159 My thoughts on 02.22.13 at 4:33 pm

Not many price reductions but lots of open houses.

#160 Devore on 02.22.13 at 4:43 pm

#35 Notta Sheeple

Why do you think the Bank of Canada uses the TOTAL Consumer Price Index (which INCULDES mortgage interest) as a target to be achieved, yet uses CORE CPI (which CONVENIENTLY EXCLUDES mortgage interest) as measure to set monetary policy.

You’re misreading (or purposely misstating to make a point) what the BoC is doing. Bank of Canada targets total CPI, and uses core CPI in the short term because it is more stable, as a secondary indicator. It doesn’t just use one or the other whenever it feels like it.

#161 polecat on 02.22.13 at 4:53 pm

If you blog dogs want a laugh, check out King’s Wharf condo’s here in lovely downtown Dartmouth N.S. Great view of Halifax but they don’t mention the train tracks that run right next to the buildings. We all make so much money down here to afford these places. Oh yeah, we’re different because of the shipbuilding contract.

#162 HAWK on 02.22.13 at 4:55 pm

#38 Ty on 02.21.13 at 11:01 pm

===================

That “catastrophe” is called job loss. If it happens, then the herd will have to dump their houses.

#163 badadvicefromparents on 02.22.13 at 5:01 pm

“Also, the strategy of renting and waiting only works if you’re diligent about investing the money you think you’re saving. If you don’t save it all, or even if you do but choose bad investments, you may still be no closer to home ownership even after years of waiting, regardless of whether prices have dropped significantly by then.”

You are 3 years away from retirement and from my perspective you may as well have spent most of your life on Mars. Your advice isn’t horrible in a world where you could reasonably expect to live in a house you purchased until you retire.

At 34 I can tell you that that is not my reality. I will follow the jobs to any city in Canada and having a house that I can’t sell without eating a huge loss would be a noose around my neck.

#164 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.22.13 at 5:03 pm

I don’t see a problem with the content of my comments. It’s not as though I post every day and my comments are never exactly the same and new information is added each time.

My intention is to provide information about the Victoria housing market to those who are currently thinking about buying. For those of you who don’t like what I write, move on and read the next comment. There are plenty of new readers from Victoria each week on this blog and I am sure they do not go back to try and find my previous comments. I’m not targeting those who are already in the know. I’m interested in relaying important information to those who are new to buying.

Right now is arguably the worst possible time to buy real estate in the history of Victoria. Young people in Victoria should be aware of this. The factual information that I provide for them is not available from realtors, the local real estate board or the local media.

This is Garth’s blog and he can do what he wants with it. I’m just thankful that he allows me to post here.

Thanks Garth!

#165 Canadian Watchdog on 02.22.13 at 5:05 pm

#133 GTA Girl

A CRA bonanza if uncovered.

CRA is a few steps ahead them.

July, 2010: Canada signs TIEAs with Bermuda and St. Kitts* and Nevis Link

#166 Mike on 02.22.13 at 5:08 pm

I learned 2 importants things while working in business

1) the person with the most information wins the negotiation

2) successful people do what un-successful people don’t do

#167 None on 02.22.13 at 5:12 pm

#141 Dorothy

Renting is putting your life on hold? Renting is awesome: I don’t have to mow the lawn, any repairs are taken care of with a phone call, I don’t have to spend my weekends with house upkeep.

People think owning offers some weird impovement in your life. Screw that. Renting is freedom! Owning a house can be an anchor around your neck.

#168 Kilby on 02.22.13 at 5:23 pm

Denise on 02.22.13 at 12:39 pm
I don’t think #24 Victoria Real Estate Update is a troll. She’s trying to educate people in her age bracket,
——————————————————————

You must be her Mom………..

#169 My thoughts on 02.22.13 at 5:29 pm

Oakville:
396 wedgewood drive. – second year on the market, had the appliances stolen via the lock box. Agent does an open house virtually every weekend. Will not consider price drop. Will they find a greater fool? Oh and entire house of hardwood floors needs to be redone.
214 waneta – baumbler house still on the market.
159 suffolk avenue – year 2 on the market
1288 Mississauga road – previous market asking price 1.5 now asking 1.88 million
Just some examples of houses in gta

#170 John Prine on 02.22.13 at 5:35 pm

Were those realtors really worth that much money? What exactly did they do, drive you around and push some paper? I say this because I just sold my rental home with a do it
_______________________________________________

While there are a lot of unscrupulous realtors out there, there are a lot that aren’t. It costs about $1,400 a months (offices vary) just to have an office and pay all the monthly fees. Work all week then weekends as well with no guarantee for a pay check, no pensions. Do market research and drive people around sometimes for months and then have them change their minds. I have bought and sold houses privately with success until trying to sell in the Okanagan in early 2011. All the advertising couldn’t get any results and I listed with a national company and it was sold in 8 weeks so people from Ottawa that had seen it on the company site. We will have to sell a condo in Victoria in 2014 and will be listing it again as in this market I need all the exposure available. No, I’m not a realtor but do have several close friends that are.

#171 Sathington Willoughby on 02.22.13 at 6:09 pm

@ 143 Calgaryboomer

You couldn’t be more right. All a selling realtor really does is plop a key box on your door, snap a few pictures and puts it on MLS, then walks away. The buyer’s realtor is the one doing the ‘work’.

I’ve sold three properties on my own without a realtor and had to pay the commission on a couple of them to a buyer’s realtor.

So much money on the table and yet people continue to use them. Costs me $500 to put it on MLS and I saved thousands.

Last one I sold the buyer’s realtor had all these questions and requests that I wasn’t familiar with and she proceeded to tell me, “That’s why you should use a realtor”. I told her there’s no need, you’re going to make sure the sale process goes smooth for your client and my lawyer will do the rest…

#172 unbelieveable on 02.22.13 at 6:30 pm

#162 Victoria Real Estate update.
Those of you pointing a finger at this poster, had best notice that whenever you point with one finger there are three pointing back at you.It probably IS the worst time to buy in Victoria’s history, but that will only prove true a hundred years from now…..and what will it matter then if it was or was not?

#173 Good authority on 02.22.13 at 6:49 pm

#127 refinow
Great math>>add in the movers, decorators, furnishers etc and that is what indeed has made the world turn in a significant way.

So a sales drop of 20-25% is major despite the RE price remaining firm.

The Feb results will be downplayed due to the weather.
March and April results in RE for 2013 will be the final word this year on the direction RE and the economy are going.

#174 richmond bc on 02.22.13 at 6:50 pm

#169 Sathington Willoughby on 02.22.13 at 6:09 pm

Congrats on selling your own place, for the savings of a paltry few thousands, you probably lost tens of thousands. Of course you can sell your own house, even a monkey can do it. But you absolutely did not get the highest price for it. In a rising market, everything sells. A realtor is an impartial mediator, third party, who can unemotionally ensure that you get the highest price possible from the buyer. You are emotional. Especially if it is your own personal residence. What’s the saying, ” Penny wise…..”

#175 Ken R on 02.22.13 at 6:56 pm

#122Small Town Steve on 02.22.13 at 12:37 pm
Can someone kick BMO-investorline in the pants so they will discount trade ETF’s?

It’s a ripoff when you start out, but you can get better deals if you shop around. Once you get some momentum and cash behind you it gets easier; discounted account fees, 6.95 trades and the like.

#176 DM in C on 02.22.13 at 7:21 pm

141 Dorothy;

You have a very myopic view of the world — “then you might like to consider how many years you’re going to put your life on hold while you’re waiting.”

We choose to rent — and our life isn’t on hold. The kids are growing, we work, we travel the world. Renting isn’t a lifestyle choice — it’s a financial decision. We may never buy again. So what? We’re not smug because we bought before the run up and now can sit on a paid for house, nor do we care or judge others on how they live their lives.

#177 TEMPLE on 02.22.13 at 7:25 pm

#172 richmond bc on 02.22.13 at 6:50 pm

Of course you can sell your own house, even a monkey can do it. But you absolutely did not get the highest price for it.

You can’t draw that conclusion from the information given. On average, it may be true that private sellers don’t get the highest prices, but it is an elementary error to assume each person is average.

Also, what about all the people who paid the highest price for a house based on the urging of a real estate agent? What kind of value did they get from using a Realtor?

A realtor is an impartial mediator, third party, who can unemotionally ensure that you get the highest price possible from the buyer.

That’s right, nobody is more impartial than a real estate agent who stands to make thousands of dollars from a transaction.

You and I have a different definition of “impartial.” Mine is correct, while yours, assuming you are a Realtor, is imaginative.

TEMPLE

#178 Spiltbongwater on 02.22.13 at 7:31 pm

If a FSBO wants, they can refuse the buyers realtor request for commission. The buyers realtor will go to their client to ask for commission before presenting the offer. At least that is what my realtor told me, that I would need to pony up some cash if I wished to buy from a FSBO or from a discount brokerage.

#179 DON on 02.22.13 at 7:35 pm

#162 Victoria Real Estate Update

Fair enough – ignore my comment.

Educate away. Your age group needs to know it is OK not to give into peer pressure and keep up with the Jones. Freedom and mobility is needed at a young age.

Cheers,

#180 Spiltbongwater on 02.22.13 at 7:36 pm

I am on the next plane to England. A university wants coke virgins to snort some free coke so they can study the users. Where has this been all my life?

http://www.businessinsider.com/prestigious-london-university-asks-for-volunteers-to-do-cocaine-for-study-2013-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+businessinsider+(Business+Insider

#181 HAWK on 02.22.13 at 7:39 pm

From ” THE MAN” himself in 2005. There is no housing bubble………….

………and then “Averchiiiii Romaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-22/bernanke-there-no-bubble

(But hey, that’s no reason not to trust these Big Wigs)

#182 DON on 02.22.13 at 7:43 pm

@ #147 happy renter on 02.22.13 at 3:24 pm

A new housing developement in Victoria called Westhills is booming.No price reductions here,hundreds of houses being built over the next few years.With prices in the low $400,000 its still affordable for young families to call a place of their own

************************

Yah I don’t think so…as the market declines the banks will put the brakes on building houses that sit empty – not a solid business plan….and$400, 000 on the island is a tad bit expensive for any young family even both working, Child care is expensive is this wrinkly town. The govs and universities have stopped hiring, and most jobs posted are at a more senior level.

Did you happen to take a look at Used Victoria and see all the rent to own offers. ‘Own your home…cheaper than renting…will lend you the down payment…just please remove this $500K noose from around my neck and transfer it to yours”.

No thanks….but I will take it from the bank for cheap- LOL

#183 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.22.13 at 7:54 pm


#136 Smoking Man — “Example if Turner Nation, or Vlad, Or Beach Girl, that would bug me. But Dr Wayne, who goes phyco on any 1rst….” — Hi SMan. Just wanted to point out that we’ve all been saved, at least for the remainder of this lifecycle. After, we can all go to hell in a handbasket! Besides, hell is where all the action is!

#76 Boombust — “…he begins the leap, but he does not complete it…” — Duz that leave him between a jagged rock and a hard landing with no wheels, caressing air?!

#83 len — “The greed in Calgary has inflated even faster than prices and incomes.’ — Greed is like cocaine, great highs but the lows suck. The jackasses (male and female) who are currently addicted to greed are about to get a downside taste of what is just about here.

#104 Mocha — “That picture is no joke! Stupid people…” — It’s unfortunate that about 7/8ths of the world’s population are as you describe. It makes life a little more difficult for the rest of us.
*
Thought For The Day! (wrh.com) — “Let them march all they want, so long as they pay their taxes.” — Alexander Haig
*
Slideshow Anti-austerity riots. It’s what is coming here; Credit Suisse Gold stuff, etc.; Wealth Flaunt it if you’ve got it; 3:46 clip West’s fear of China destabilizing Pakistan; Obomba and business. Giving it all away; US$17 bln. profit Wal-Mart’s 2012 profit, but it has slowed down so far; Wall St.’s misdeeds cost trillions but it’s the average ma and pa who are paying; 7:47 clip “Major food companies throughout America/UK actually pay a Jewish Tax amounting to hundreds of million of dollars per year in order to receive protection.” Extortion par excellence?
*
China and Rebirth This is beyond silly; The Blade Runner SSRIs et al; m$m sux Rush “Pills” Limbaugh isn’t much better; Johnson & Johnson seems to have done a naughty; India A plethora of people, nukes and other things; US Niger has resources which the US doesn’t, so invade already! 3:56 clip Meteor shower and things which go bump in the night; Democides Socialism, tyranny, grabbing guns etc.; 65 mln. guns dubya is a simpleton, Obomba’s dangerous.

#184 Country Girl on 02.22.13 at 7:55 pm

#172 richmond bc on 02.22.13 at 6:50 pm
You’re assuming all realtors have strong negotiating skills and sellers do not. The end selling price would have to be significantly higher in order to cover the realtor’s fee and compensate for the stress of dealing with an imbecile.

#185 jess on 02.22.13 at 8:02 pm

the bullying elite…

http://www.thenation.com/article/173044/political-corruption-and-media-retribution-spain-and-greece#

#186 Dan from Richmond Hill on 02.22.13 at 8:05 pm

#122 Small Town Steve on 02.22.13 at 12:37 pm

You can buy and sell about 50 ETFs free of charge with Scotia iTrade. It could be a good starting point.

#187 Ralph Cramdown on 02.22.13 at 8:21 pm

#172 richmond bc — “Congrats on selling your own place, for the savings of a paltry few thousands, you probably lost tens of thousands.”

Yeah whatever. I sold a place for family last spring. Hired an appraiser, got the comps, listed it for 6% over appraisal, sold it within a week. Could a realtor have gotten me 10% over appraisal? Maybe, but we’d have netted the same amount and it wouldn’t have been nearly as interesting.

Here’s a tip for everyone keen to save a buck selling a home. Even if you DON’T want to sell it yourself, hanging out a dollar store For Sale sign will bring around all the best agents who work in the neighbourhood (and all the rest, too) and — surprise, surprise –they’ll be remarkably flexible on the listing agent portion of the commission.

#188 jess on 02.22.13 at 8:26 pm

The charging documents allege that Stewart Parnell, Michael Parnell, Lightsey, and Kilgore participated in several schemes by which they defrauded PCA customers about the quality and purity of their peanut products and specifically misled PCA customers about the existence of foodborne pathogens, most notably salmonella, in the peanut products PCA sold to them. As the charging documents allege, the members of the conspiracy did so in several ways—for example, even when laboratory testing revealed the presence of salmonella in peanut products from the Blakely plant, Stewart Parnell, Michael Parnell, Lightsey, and Kilgore failed to notify customers of the presence of salmonella in the products shipped to them.

In addition, the charging documents allege that Stewart Parnell, Michael Parnell, Lightsey, and Kilgore participated in a scheme to fabricate certificates of analysis (COAs) accompanying various shipments of peanut products. COAs are documents that summarize laboratory results, including results concerning the presence or absence of pathogens. As alleged in the charging documents, on several occasions these four defendants participated in a scheme to fabricate COAs stating that shipments of peanut products were free of pathogens when, in fact, there had been no tests on the products at all or when the laboratory results showed that a sample tested positive for salmonella.
http://www.fbi.gov/atlanta/press-releases/2013/former-officials-and-broker-of-peanut-corporation-of-america-indicted-in-connection-with-salmonella-tainted-peanut-products

#189 Léo LaTuque on 02.22.13 at 8:37 pm

Money talks (#26 and #29 re: questionable changes in news framing in Winnipeg)

Problem is Murray McNeill, the “reporter” who writes most of these “news” pieces, seems to be on the take from the real estate agencies (how else can one explain his pro-housing coverage?!?). I think Garth should hold a contest to identify out the most biased housing market reporter in Canada.

#190 cp on 02.22.13 at 8:38 pm

thanks Garth, but Canadians keep on getting the message that houses increase wealth, and think difference in comparison to increase in salary is grand for them. Canadians need basic explanations why that difference spells trouble, not real estate propaganda.

#191 Mark W on 02.22.13 at 8:50 pm

Why would anyone want to live in downtown Winnipeg which can be described in two words.

Dirty & dangerous. (Actually scary would be a third word).

Buy or rent … who cares … ten minutes by car or transit and you can be in a reasonably safe suburb.

The security guards in Portage Place Mall downtown wear bullet proof vests. (OK so they look cool, but they wear them for a reason beyond a fashion statement).

Do not go out after dark … and do not walk down the street alone after 5 PM anytime of the year, especially if you are a woman.

You get to live in one of Winnipeg’s 10/10/10 neighborhoods.

10/10/10 means that within a ten minute walk radius of where you live there have been ten murders within the last ten years.

http://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/features/homicides/

Think I am making this up … take a look at the map and see downtown Winnipeg.

Yea, you really want to live there?

#192 debtors_winners on 02.22.13 at 8:55 pm

“IMF warns interest rate cuts may be needed”

While Canada’s economy should pick up later this year, there are external and domestic threats that, if unchecked, could make a case for more interest rate cuts, according to the International Monetary Fund.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/12/19/economy-canada-imf-interest-rates_n_2330239.html

#193 Lilyflor on 02.22.13 at 9:20 pm

Again why do charts never include Montrwal the 2nd. Largest city in the country. Surely Montreal stats have some influence in the overall economy and house prices, no??

#194 Daisy Mae on 02.22.13 at 9:22 pm

“What a waste this blog has been.” – Garth

********************

Nope! Not at all! It’s been extremely valuable to those of us who come back….day after day….year after year.

So….don’t you dare give up on us, you hear? :-)

#195 Denise on 02.22.13 at 9:34 pm

#162 Victoria Real Estate Update: Good for you, keep posting. I know you’re trying to help educate the younger adults, the ones in your age bracket. (My #123 post).
#166 Kilby: No I am not her Mom but I am a mother of young adults & am so thankful they think like this young woman. I live in Victoria, grew up here, my children were born here; our family knows this area very well & agree with her.

#196 Sathington Willoughby on 02.22.13 at 9:56 pm

@ 172 richmond bc

A rising market? Do you follow this blog?

I sound emotional? You’re the one with the rising blood pressure there, must be a realtor. Two of the three properties I sold I didn’t live in, so no emotion, just priced right.

I highly doubt a realtor would have got more money. They may have encouraged me to list at a higher price, but then they’d be right there encouraging me to drop the price when it doesn’t sell. They’re good at that part…

#197 Daisy Mae on 02.22.13 at 9:56 pm

#143 Calgary Boomer: “Were those realtors really worth that much money? What exactly did they do, drive you around and push some paper?”

******************

I agree. With you and Dorothy. All the way. My son has sold 2-3 homes without a realtor. And it wasn’t a problem.

#198 Mel on 02.22.13 at 10:14 pm

Just have to put in my two cents here Garth. No one wants to buy bulldoze jobs in Toronto or Vancouver. I get that, people understand that if you want to live anywhere in the city you must pay more. That said. I don’t believe it’s feasible to convince people to live in crack shacks for more money. There is no upside in old ancient homes. When people insist that all outlying areas outside of all major urban centers will experience the same level of collapse as all major crack shack areas? I have to disagree. Because that is where people are attempting to…at the very least put capital at risk. Your cost to own are not as inflated if you were to live in Toronto in where there are two land transfer taxes. Vancouver is a shit pile real estate market as #49 on your comment board suggested. Vancouver is poised for a major collapse of house prices.

#199 Derek R on 02.22.13 at 10:54 pm

Keep on commenting, Victoria Real Estate Update. You’re doing fine. Your comments are on topic so they’re worth a lot more than some of the nonsense and fluff that gets posted here.

#200 bubu on 02.23.13 at 12:17 am

#162Victoria Real Estate Update
“Right now is arguably the worst possible time to buy real estate in the history of Victoria.”
——————————————————————————————————————–
Appreciate your input.
Does this apply to Victoria exclusively, or does the same scenario include the entire Island?
I have been hanging in there and been waiting for two years now. The prices have not really changed much, as of yet.
Still renting in Alberta.

#201 Small Town Steve on 02.23.13 at 1:29 am

Thank you for the help guys. I started the process for opening a Qtrade account and will send them 2k to test how I like it. I just have to send off the rest of the paperwork Monday.

#202 DON on 02.23.13 at 1:12 pm

@#198 bubu on 02.23.13 at 12:17 am

It applies to the entire Vancouver Island.

#203 Tony on 02.23.13 at 1:49 pm

Re: #21 in calgary on 02.21.13 at 10:32 pm

You’re correct most people who buy a condo in Calgary lose more than 100 thousand dollars. It’s rare to “only” lose a hundred grand. It must have been a small one bedroom condominium.

#204 Arta on 02.23.13 at 2:05 pm

What about Montreal? It is not included in the chart.

Will be appreciated some input about Montreal.

#205 AisA on 02.23.13 at 8:53 pm

Montreal is going to see some hard times. It is included in the chart somewhere between pain and suffering, pain and suffering are in the chart, you just have to look closer.

Too big to fail does not exist, to big to fail quickly is more like it. Egyptian, Roman, Byzantine……..Empires end all the same, making the empire “truly global” does not change how it ends. NOT WELL.

#206 actional on 02.23.13 at 9:46 pm

I spoke with a Victoria Real Estate sale person Feb 22nd . I was told no correction here don’t see it. I replied that I could see a correction as prices look to be down. I don’t see it here he replied ” it is different we have the asian market and lumber prices are up sooo! YOU ARE WRONG!!! I allways wonder how the sales person and the majority of people see what they want to Not the reality.Victoria is in correction and most don’t see it. I have so many friends that have upgraded more than once in an inflated market only to go more in debt. Lots that should be debt free have taken on more debt even to own condo rental units which will be worth less than the morgage. They are still in denial ,what is wrong I have been warning a correction is near. I’m a pesimist thats what they say Haa haa. I have no debt and own a house I don’t think I will sell as I only paid 150 for a 1950 bunglow in the city backing undeveloped park and love my spot , cheap to live as I have suite and can walk to everthing.I’m like all my friends that had to buy up at age 50 plus only I dont have 4000 ft or debt.
Not sure how so many people forget so easy.Freedom 60 is looking good .This could turn out badly really badly, it scares me for blind.