Telling tales

dude

Was it only a year ago that 255 Connaught Drive sold for $769,000? A benign winter was mellowing along, with flocks of dewy-eyed, tufted hornies drawn irresistibly to the season’s first crop of tasty listings.

Yes, the Connaught house was ugly, dated and tired, but the Willowdale area of Toronto was kinda hot, and this relic was settled on a fifty by 132 lot. So, the hornies descended. Besides, the listing agent created an auction environment, cancelling an open house and accepting offers only by fax (with proof of certified cheque) by precisely 4 pm on Wednesday, February 15th.

connaught  There were many. And the $669,900 house ended up selling for exactly $100,000 over asking. By the time closing day came the buyer would have paid $791,960, including Toronto’s double-double land transfer tax.

Paul was watching all this from his neighbourhood window.  “Today, my agent forwarded the link below to me that really seems to drive home your point about the value blow-off in Toronto,” he wrote me. “This same house just sold again, with what appears to be no substantial changes, almost exactly one year later, for only $720K. This is a $50,000 haircut, in just one year.”

Actually it’s a $71,000 haircut, and after the vendor forks over the 5% commission, it’ll be a scalping of $107,000. This is a one-year loss of 14% – in one of the GTA’s hot spots where houses are still ‘affordable.’ Of course, one year later, lots more affordable

“I know that one sale does not make the market,” says Paul, “but it is a telling tale. My guess would be that a speculator bailed on the deal, so the house came back on the market.” Worse, the first deal simply fell apart.

On the South Shore of Nova Scotia, long a fav of the monied, yachty set from Boston and wealthy European investors, the correction has already happened. Last Friday realtors revealed that sales across the province have collapsed by 21% over the last year, after a ship-building-induced speculative frenzy fizzled in the Halifax area.

portrait  Prices on the South Shore are now running about 18% below levels of eighteen months ago. For example, a spectacular, restored century-old Queen Anne revival sat on the market for almost three years, starting at well over $500,000 before selling for $385,000. “We’re doing a lot of deals where there’s pain on both sides,” says local broker Tim Harris. “It’s a buyer’s market, so if they don’t do well on the sale of their home, they pass the pain along again.”

On the opposite coast, at the corner of Steveston Highway and Shell Road in Richmond, Larson has been driving past the same fluttering banner and weathering sign for the last four months. This past weekend he snapped a picture and sent it along.

“Thought you might be interested,” he says. “The ‘Free Car and 11 sold, 14 left’ sign has been there since late November. If memory serves me correctly, the building was completed over a year ago.”

ironwood gate  Actually the 25-unit townhouse development has been on the market for over two years. Now poor agent Mukhtiar Sian is left with 11 Hondas, which are last year’s models. (At least they’re not KIAs.) In fact, this is just one example of a slew of new developments in the Greater Van area which hit the market at the worst possible moment – as the great reset was just beginning.

These are but three glimpses of markets in the midst of a correction which will run long and deep. Of course at the same time there are multiple offers and above-asking bids in other places where people are not paying attention. Real estate’s emotional tug is relentless and intoxicating, and will continue to ensnare. And while there’s nothing wrong with wanting and securing your own home, committing the bulk of your net worth there, or expecting a house to gain in value in the future as it did in the past, is folly.

Yesterday I wrote about the inexorable shift from real assets to financial ones. It’s a long-term trend most people will deny, or be wilfully blinded to. Those obsessed with bricks of clay or ounces of silver will deny this without end. But for most families the safest path forward is to ensure they worship the three deities: Balance, Diversification and Liquidity.

Tomorrow: why the scariest is yet to come.

203 comments ↓

#1 baddog on 02.18.13 at 5:39 pm

No comments yet. Am I supposed to say “first”?

#2 nubbers on 02.18.13 at 5:39 pm

In what universe is a Honda Civic an incentive?

#3 Cathy on 02.18.13 at 5:40 pm

Goodness, you’re early. Are you taking the Amazon out to dinner? Nice blog. Cheers.

#4 Doom on 02.18.13 at 5:41 pm

Oh looking forward to tomorrow’s post….

#5 Stew on 02.18.13 at 5:43 pm

Makes you wonder not who the automaker is, but whether all the crap being spouted about how gold and silver have no real use to society (you can’t eat it, you can’t Google with it, etc.).

I’ll say this much, gold is the only metal I know that is the world’s best conductor of heat and is indestructible. Silver has excellent reflective properties and is antibacterial to boot.

I know there are many, many other properties these metals possess, but it’s all kept “hush, hush.”

Especially the part of “monetary stability.”

German Automaker Reportedly Hoarding As Much Physical Silver As it Can Acquire
February 15, 2013

#6 Taco Bell on 02.18.13 at 5:45 pm

Another GTA Bubble.. This time in Maple.

Corn flakes McMansions like this one are being built in this area:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12804962&PidKey=-922259659

The area is so overpriced in not even funny. For sure it is an A-B-S-O-L-U-T-E-L-Y S-T-U-N-N-I-N-G! fail .

#7 gladiator on 02.18.13 at 5:49 pm

early post today!

#8 Koshy Alex on 02.18.13 at 5:49 pm

Garth first time commenting, has been reading the blog for a while, thanks for providing immigrants like me the real info about the real estate in Canada,

Some flippers in my area waiting for haircuts !!!

http://www.113kingslakerd.info/

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=12628948&PidKey=1002159325

#9 VanCoaster on 02.18.13 at 5:50 pm

Wow, that Halifax house looks gorgeous. If I could convince the family, I’d be on the next plane East.

#10 T.J. BONES on 02.18.13 at 5:50 pm

Sir Garth Have a good dinner with Dorothy (early Post )

#11 claudius emperor on 02.18.13 at 5:53 pm

I would settle for free massage from F and M.C.

#12 902 Scotian on 02.18.13 at 5:55 pm

Early today. Breaking news on a breaking market.

First?

#13 gladiator on 02.18.13 at 5:57 pm

@ TacoBell:
what is the meaning of “Corn flakes McMansions”?

#14 Spiltbongwater on 02.18.13 at 6:01 pm

Why do all the Realtor .ca listings from Ontario have the features ALL IN CAPS?

#15 Arse on 02.18.13 at 6:02 pm

In my opinion, there would be a slow, long term decline in real estate prices in places where they are highly over valued, not a crash.

#16 Spiltbongwater on 02.18.13 at 6:04 pm

Sorry, they don’t have the description all in caps, they Just Capitilize The First Letter Of Every Word. Does This Help The Property Sell Quicker?

#17 Milionaire Machini$t on 02.18.13 at 6:11 pm

#5 Stew: SILVER not Gold is the best electrical conductor. Gold is more widely used because it does not oxydize, so it is more “stable” in its conductivity. Common misconception.

#18 Milionaire Machini$t on 02.18.13 at 6:15 pm

Oops…Thought you were talking about electrical conductivity, not heat! Nevermind…That’s why I prefer reading than posting!! Moving on….

#19 DonDWest on 02.18.13 at 6:20 pm

What’s funny is I remember that house back in the day when I was selling insurance (back in 2006). I’m fairly certain it’s located in Lunenburg. I remember the owner at the time had his own household secretary and cleaner. I’m fairly certain he was a wealthy contractor in the area, as I overheard him and his secretary discuss numerous building contracts and home renovations. The secretary was speaking a lot of German and French.

Times, they’re a changing. . . I never thought I would see the day South Shore, Nova Scotia, historically the most expensive real estate in the country, would tumble so drastically. Understand that the South Shore was never truly in a bubble like all of the Canadian urban areas the past 10 years. South Shore was always expensive adjusted for inflation since the guilded age; now relatively speaking it’s perhaps the cheapest real estate in North America. . . Saw one of those historic super Empire Victorians selling for under 100K until the owner no more than a few hours later delisted it in disgust.

#20 Stew on 02.18.13 at 6:21 pm

Millionaire:
You have to look at two different things, the resistance of the solid material that is the conductor, and the resistance of the joint (or connection / contact surface / interface, or whatever you want to call it). Silver has higher conductivity (lower resistance) than gold. But it tarnishes, which means a high resistance oxide forms on its surface. Silver is fine for many things, but where a very low voltage and low current is involved (for example in electronics signals) the tarnish can interfere with the signal and gold must be used instead.

#21 Paully on 02.18.13 at 6:21 pm

At the same time in 2012 that the Connaught house was selling for $50,000 more than today, I was also selling my condo for $52,000 over asking. Now I rent a great house nearby, and that decision to sell and rent puts me at least $100,000 plus taxes and fees to the plus side of the ledger! Now every time I walk my dog past that house, I will wear an extra big smile!

Thanks Garth! I couldn’t have done it without you!

#22 Dr. WAYNE on 02.18.13 at 6:24 pm

#7 gladiator on 02.18.13 at 5:49 pm

early post today!

====================

WOW … that took a lot of cranial electronic activity …

#23 NorthOf49 on 02.18.13 at 6:35 pm

Great post Garth. Meanwhile in the Hammer:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12745791&PidKey=-901178719

was $970,000
was $879,000
was $699,000
was $679,000 (11/29/12)
was $659,000 (01/20/13)
now $649,000 (02/15/13)

Increment is getting smaller, must be getting close to the sink/swim line.

#24 AK on 02.18.13 at 6:37 pm

#22 Dr. WAYNE on 02.18.13 at 6:24 pm

“#7 gladiator on 02.18.13 at 5:49 pm

early post today!

====================

WOW … that took a lot of cranial electronic activity …”

LOL. The poor guy was hoping to post “first”, but he was susprised by the early post.. :-)

#25 Mic D'angelo on 02.18.13 at 6:39 pm

Garth, me and you don’t completely agree about what investments we should have in our portfolio but I do agree that this 17 years of speculation and housing bubble, overvaluation has started at least a year ago in B.C. specifically Vancouver than to other cities.

It is spreading to all of Canada and I believe this will be at least 3 to 5 years of declining housing prices. Toronto’s condo market looks to be the worse housing overvaluation as speculators are buying them as flippers and not even living in the units. They are trying to rent them out but I have a good feeling that this will flood the rental market and keep rental prices low versus the cost of owning them.

I am thinking that a 25% across the board decline in housing prices over 3-5 years and in Toronto, Montreal,Quebec City,Ottawa down 30% to 40%, Vancouver,Calgary, Edmonton 40%+. The last time was the early 1990’s that a great decline in housing happened especially condo’s in Toronto.

I know a friend that has a house in Scarborough that was $285,000 in 1989 which he paid $60,000 in 1974 and it dropped to $169,000 in 1995. He told me it is worth $339,000 at the end of 2012.He told me it could easily get to $200,000 after things end.

#26 AK on 02.18.13 at 6:40 pm

#1 baddog on 02.18.13 at 5:39 pm

“No comments yet. Am I supposed to say “first”?”

——————————————————————

Duh… How about contibuting something useful???

#27 Frizzzz on 02.18.13 at 6:42 pm

Are KIAs really that crappy? My ride is a Corolla….

#28 DM in C on 02.18.13 at 6:51 pm

VanCoaster;

That house is not in Halifax, nor in HRM — more like a 90 min drive down the ‘shore.

#29 Can't Fix Stupid on 02.18.13 at 6:59 pm

It continues to be exceptionally stupid here in Winnipeg. New developments and condos are propping all over the city – “cause it’s different here and we’re just equalizing with the rest of the country”. 300K now buys a starter home, anything less is usually in neighbourhoods where you’d get stabbed walking the dog.

#30 taylor192 on 02.18.13 at 7:17 pm

There have been a few developments in Vancouver offering cars or other bonuses rather than price reductions. People fall for it, just like when buying a new car and upgrades get thrown in for “free” just means you could have bought the car cheaper.

People are sheep, and sheep get slaughtered.

#31 None on 02.18.13 at 7:17 pm

Can anyone suggest a good Halifax housing blog?

#32 Jsan on 02.18.13 at 7:18 pm

Good news!!! According to the chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association, a drop in new listings points to a gradual recovery in Vancouver housing. Vancouver’s very own David Lereah.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/drop-in-new-listings-points-to-gradual-recovery-in-vancouver-housing/article8790439/

#33 Voltures no mercy on 02.18.13 at 7:23 pm

Cars ok for a new building but everything is negotiable in the house, when they are hurting to sell you can also include their big screen tv as part of the RE purchase.

#34 Ken R on 02.18.13 at 7:25 pm

#13gladiator on 02.18.13 at 5:57 pm
@ TacoBell:

what is the meaning of “Corn flakes McMansions”?

Cornflakes refers to the oriental stand board common in today’s construction. It’s pieces of scrap product glued together to produce sheathing. It is used in floors, exterior walls and roofing. Cheap and plentiful- perfect for building cheap boxes to house people.

#35 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.18.13 at 7:30 pm

QUOTE:

Actually the 25-unit townhouse development has been on the market for over two years. Now poor agent Mukhtiar Sian is left with 11 Hondas, which are last year’s models. (At least they’re not KIAs.) In fact, this is just one example of a slew of new developments in the Greater Van area which hit the market at the worst possible moment – as the great reset was just beginning.

==============================

The development fronts onto a busy road and backs onto a school.

The site was cobbled together , houses demolished and sat for years before they actually built.

It seems like one of those deals whereby the developer go outside the OCP…seek an amendment…and build in ill advised spots.

IMHO This one will end up as auction bait

#36 Thankful for the little things. on 02.18.13 at 7:31 pm

In what universe is a Honda Civic an incentive?

Nubbers,

I am not sure where you are located, but the Honda Civic makes perfect sense in places like Richmond, Vancouver or Toronto. Somebody posted a message a year ago with the observation that a lot first-time buyers drive very old cars.

The general premise was that the “young hornies” that Garth talks about are so completely tapped out they can’t even afford the lease on a new car, or a seven year loan which appears to be the standard car loan for an entry level sedan these days.

I thought the observation was nonsense until I started looking in the driveways of brand new homeowners in my Etobicoke (Toronto) hood. At least in my area, a lot brand new homeowners drive 2000 vintage Corollas, Civics and minivans.

For them, I guess the thought of rolling a $20,000 car into a mortgage would make some kind of twisted sense. I am sure that is what the condo developer is thinking.

We really have gone house crazy.

#37 Dr. WAYNE on 02.18.13 at 7:34 pm

#1 baddog on 02.18.13 at 5:39 pm

No comments yet. Am I supposed to say “first”?

============================

No … but you can repeat after me … “I am an a$$hole for thinking I should join the likes of all other other a$$holes who strive for recognition by countermanding
the venerable Mr. Turner’s specific request that those of such a mind “GET LOST”.”

#38 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.18.13 at 7:34 pm

That’s sure a nice picture of THE BEATLES Ex Guru

BTW is good architecture illegal in Ontario ?

#39 Thankful for the little things. on 02.18.13 at 7:48 pm

#6 Taco Bell,

That listing you posted is CRAZY! That home is north of Major Mac. It is not even a McMansion, just a big family home.

When did exurban homes with no property hit 1.1 million? Who can afford that?

#40 Alex on 02.18.13 at 7:51 pm

Garth, I’ve been reading your blog now since last summer and of course have known of you for years.
I’ve finally decided to share my story with you and your readers. Bought a house in Richmond Hill, On in 1994 for low 300’s, spent money to renovate and lived there very happy with my wife and 3 kids till the neighborhood caught the RE fewer. Beginning oh I think middle of 2009 homes similar to mine 50’s bungalow on 3/4(100′ x 300’irregular) acre starting selling for over a million for land value only as the buyers of these lots started putting up tremendous size houses. We could not believe how prices were escalating month by month every time couple of properties sold. Wait I promise not to bore you. February of 2011 I get a call from Lou, we both sold life insurance 34 years ago when we were very young, he tells me that our sales manager from when we sold life insurance passed away and we should pay our respect by going to the funeral home. I call my friend Reg who also worked with us and we go. Reg and Lou haven’t seen each other in quite a few years so it was nice to get together for old times. We end up going for a drink later and OH yeah forgot to tell you Lou is a Remax agent so all evening he’s pitching houses(sell,buy) and why not? That’s what these guys do. Wait it gets better, I tell Lou if he can get me 1.75 (yes mil.) I’ll walk. Lou being the salesman he is ,calls me the next day and wants to meet with us to discuss the listing. My wife and I agreed that if we could get this ridicules price we would walk. So Lou shows up the next day and tells us that he did his home work and our property is not really worth what we want>(I already knew that before) I Tell him it’s 1.75 or nothing and you know these guys don’t just walk away, so he takes the listing at 1.75. In the next 4 to 5 weeks we had a shit load of showings and an offer that we finally excepted at 1.6 mil. We closed in 60 days and you guessed it been renting since then and patiently waiting for prices to come down big time and you’re right Garth they will> No it’s not different this time, in fact this like you say will Not End Well. I still live in the same neighborhood (renting of course) and can report the following. I think perhaps 1 or 2 properties sold since we moved out. Several new homes for sale in the range of 3.8 to 6 mil. on the market for months of course with no signs expect for 1 and yes 1 sold in those 2 years. Recently(last Sept.) 2 lots were for sale for 1.5 mil on a better street and not irregular like mine was and were taken of the market. It doesn’t matter what the RE spinner say you can clearly see that there are a lot more homes for sale and yes I’ve been seeing price reductions. I believe this is only the very beginning and this time around the price collapse will make the early nineties look like child play. Yes, this will be painful and will not end well.

Except for you. — Garth

#41 Sebee on 02.18.13 at 8:06 pm

What correction? 3%, 5%, 8% is not a correction. This will have to cut a lot deeper than single digits or Carney calling a 2 year time line. 2x the price of US house just can’t be justified with 4m sq. miles of land and 35m people.

#42 Alberta Ed on 02.18.13 at 8:15 pm

Actually, it’s “oriented strand board”, not “oriental stand board”, unless the mythical HAM buyers know something we don’t about pressed Corn Flakes. Just sayin’…

#43 guelphstudent on 02.18.13 at 8:15 pm

Even Carney now thinks that when his house doubled in five years that’s not normal. I wonder whether it is a coincidence that he is leaving Canada as stuff is about to hit the fan

#44 Canadian Watchdog on 02.18.13 at 8:38 pm

Spot the odd listing.

Jun-12 C2388309 141 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,749,000
Sep-12 C2469902 141 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,649,000
May-12 C2370754 220 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,150,000
Mar-12 C2304330 225 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,539,900
Jan-13 C2542229 242 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,668,000
Feb-12 C2281557 255 CONNAUGHT AVE $669,900
Sep-12 C2461751 285 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,199,000
Oct-12 C2477084 285 CONNAUGHT AVE $1,199,000

#45 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.18.13 at 8:55 pm

DELETED

#46 Telling tales — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate « The Affluent Boomer™ on 02.18.13 at 8:56 pm

[…] via Telling tales — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#47 Smartalox on 02.18.13 at 9:03 pm

I really want to see how Mark Carney’s story plays out. From his recent comments, I really wonder if there wasn’t some bad blood between the BoC and the PMO with regard to Canadian Real Estate.

It’s good politics for a government to make the electorate feel wealthy, especially if it’s made to feel like “easy money”. It’s even better politics to let the electorate take on massive debt, then keep them in line by sowing the fear that the electorate will “lose everything” (jobs, homes, future) if they vote against the party platform.

#48 Oceanside on 02.18.13 at 9:08 pm

#37 Dr. WAYNE on 02.18.13 at 7:34 pm
#1 baddog on 02.18.13 at 5:39 pm

No comments yet. Am I supposed to say “first”?

============================

No … but you can repeat after me … “I am an a$$hole for thinking I should join the likes of all other other a$$holes who strive for recognition by countermanding
the venerable Mr. Turner’s specific request that those of such a mind “GET LOST”.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So much rage over nothing, most just ignore these little silly posts. If Garth was concerned he would block all the firsts. Maybe if you ignore them they will get bored and go away.

#49 Facts on 02.18.13 at 9:13 pm

Need to get your facts straight on 255 Connaught…same owner as one year ago. Never closed.

As stated. — Garth

#50 The Man From Nantucket on 02.18.13 at 9:15 pm

#39 Thankful for the little things. on 02.18.13 at 7:48 pm
#6 Taco Bell,

……When did exurban homes with no property hit 1.1 million??

Imagine the “prestige of living in Upper Thornhill Woods Estates.

I could almost swallow this price for a nice looking large home in the real Thornhill, but this is way out in the hinterlands of Canada’s Vaughan-derland.

If this sells for more than a million, we may have seen the greatest fool ! :)

#51 Silver on 02.18.13 at 9:23 pm

Happy Silver say
….thanks one and all for the sage advise…. here.
Garth… you in particular, thank you.

Bought in Socialist Vancouver 2003
Sold for $939,000. in Socialist Vancouver.
Owe $165,000
Court Master awarded us a property in Mission for $270,000 today. Took it by $1500 over the next bid.
Bank took $90,000+ loss. Heee Hee He
Assessed at $391,700. 2013.

Property tax socialist vancouver $20,000+
Property tax Mission $3,000-

will keep the mortgage at $165,000 at 3.1 and 5 /20 year. Pay off the rest.

hmmm… $500 G+ cash and no debt…and a cheap home ta-boot.

Now what to do with what we have left….

She’s 57 and I’m 54…

Smart Commie flee Socialist Vancouver before Socialists take everything…

best road sign for me now…
you are entering the GVRD.

Silver

#52 sickofbc on 02.18.13 at 9:26 pm

@#32

Vancouver’s very own David Lereah. Remember that guy? He was the chief economist for the US National Association of Realtors. Back in 2006 He not only said that there would be no US housing crash, he even wrote a book about how the boom would continue indefinitely and how to profit from it. Anyone who took his advice is now more than likely wiped out financially.

“Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust – And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market”

http://www.amazon.ca/Real-Estate-Boom-Will-Bust/dp/0385514352

#53 StocksRHot2013 on 02.18.13 at 9:27 pm

#34 you are totally wrong…. The Chinese actually use real corn flakes…. I smashed a wall today poured some milk in a bowl and it tasted quite good!

#54 COW MAN on 02.18.13 at 9:35 pm

Sir Garth:

You must sleep better at night, now knowing, you are now finally right. I know I do.

#55 Spiltbongwater on 02.18.13 at 9:36 pm

I guess the current owners of 255 Connaught will sue the buyer that backed out of the bidding war offer? I imagine a deposit had been paid? Does this deposit count against what the vendor would get in a judgement, or would it be found money for the vendor? Does the listing agent get a cut of either the deposit, or the judgement when sales fall off the rails?

#56 sickofbc on 02.18.13 at 9:46 pm

#32 Jsan on 02.18.13 at 7:18 pm

Good news!!! According to the chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association, a drop in new listings points to a gradual recovery in Vancouver housing. Vancouver’s very own David Lereah.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/drop-in-new-listings-points-to-gradual-recovery-in-vancouver-housing/article8790439/

Vancouver’s very own David Lereah. Remember that guy? He was the chief economist for the US National Association of Realtors. Back in 2006 He not only said that there would be no US housing crash, he even wrote a book about how the boom would continue indefinitely and how to profit from it. Anyone who took his advice is now more than likely wiped out financially.

“Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust – And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market”

http://www.amazon.ca/Real-Estate-Boom-Will-Bust/dp/0385514352

#57 Gunboat denier on 02.18.13 at 9:51 pm

5 Stew – they sound just like commodities. Now where have I heard that?

Oriental stand board. Too funny

51 Silver – good work but I thought you were looking for a lodge in the boonies? Hmm maybe Mission is the boonies?

#58 It's different here (Calgary) on 02.18.13 at 9:57 pm

I agree with most things I read on this blog, but when I look around here in Calgary, things do feel different here. Listings are few, buyers are everywhere. It is hard to find rentals, which are getting expensive by the month. Too many people moving in from BC and rest of the Canada and rest of the world here. I know it is a bubble, but who knows with all this oil, it may last decades, and above all prices are 50% lower than Van City. Not buying a home yet, but eager to see what is next in this oil base economy.

#59 Julia on 02.18.13 at 9:58 pm

As Garth has said… http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/02/18/stock-funds-pass-2007-highs/1928147/

#60 Cowpoke on 02.18.13 at 9:59 pm

Closer to a 21% loss because of no appreciation.

#61 Gladiator on 02.18.13 at 10:00 pm

Dr. WAYNE, I am sure it takes much more cranial activity to call people something you see when you look in the mirror. I am in awe and shocked by your intelligence, oh Master! As much as you may want it, not everyone’s like you.

AK, I act confidently (like greetining doctors) when I am sure I am first. Otherwise, I just mentioned that very rare event when a post goes out shortly after 4pm EST. Actually, I posted that while laughing my azz off at the KIA joke. ‘Twas a good one. Are you Dr. WAYNE’s brother?

#62 Sebee on 02.18.13 at 10:02 pm

Watchdog,

I recall you talked about possible currency moves by BoC. Governments are denying it, bit clearly there is a quiet effort to push currency down. USD, Swiss Franc, Yen, now Pound…CAN $ next? Everyone wants to make their manufacturing sector competitive. Surely Canada won’t stand by idle?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/9877424/Sterling-strikes-seven-month-lows-amid-calls-for-further-weakness.html

#63 LS in Arbutus on 02.18.13 at 10:11 pm

#40 Alex – need one more piece of info, how much is your rent and are you in a decent place compared to your last place? Otherwise, good for you!!! It’s a great feeling!

#64 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.18.13 at 10:14 pm


Five surgeons . . .

Five surgeons from big cities are discussing who makes the Best patients to operate on.

The first surgeon, from Toronto, says,

‘I like to see accountants on my operating table because when you open them up, everything inside is numbered.’

The second, from Montreal, responds,

‘Yeah, but you should try electricians! Everything inside them is color coded.’

The third surgeon, from Vancouver, says,

‘No, I really think librarians are the best, everything inside them is in alphabetical order.’

The fourth surgeon, from Winnipeg chimes in:

‘You know, I like construction workers . . . those guys always understand when you have a few parts left over.’

But the fifth surgeon, from Ottawa shut them all up when he observed:

‘You’re all wrong. Politicians are the easiest to operate on.

‘There’s no guts, no heart, no balls, no brains, and no spine. Plus, the head and the ass are interchangeable.’

#65 Foggy on 02.18.13 at 10:19 pm

At 34 Ken R:
“Cornflakes refers to the oriental stand board common in today’s construction. …”
————————–
Those damn Chinese – even selling us cheap building products.

Actually Ken it’s “oriented strand board” referring to the grain direction of the wood chips.

#66 JSS on 02.18.13 at 10:20 pm

Kia’s 2013 Rio sub-compact, including the 5-Door hatchback and sedan, has been awarded Motoring TV’s 2013 ‘Best Small Car’. The 2013 Rio achieved the title by finishing ahead of the Mazda 3 and Nissan Sentra.

“The Kia Rio was one of Kia Canada’s highest volume sellers in 2012,” said Robert Staffieri, Director of Marketing, Kia Canada Inc. “The world-class design of the Rio compliments the vehicle’s combination of impressive design from a styling, technology and safety perspective, providing Canadian’s a vehicle for every type of driver.”

http://www.kia.ca/pages/company/newscontent.aspx?id=212&lang=en

Too bad the Korean Imitation Car company can’t spell ‘Canadians’. — Garth

#67 Dr. WAYNE on 02.18.13 at 10:23 pm

#61 Gladiator on 02.18.13 at 10:00 pm

I am in awe and shocked by your intelligence, oh Master! As much as you may want it, not everyone’s like you.

==========================

“In awe and shocked by your intelligence …” … as ‘YOU’ should be, however, I must admit it wouldn’t take many IQ points to surpass the person cutting himself shaving in your en-suite … somewhere in the order of a gnat.

On another note … “not everyone’s like you” … OF COURSE NOT … jeeezzz, there’s an earth-shattering remark !!! UNIQUE … yes … and proud of it.

#68 Ralph Cramdown on 02.18.13 at 10:25 pm

#54 Spiltbongwater — “Does the listing agent get a cut of either the deposit, or the judgement when sales fall off the rails?”

Why Spiltbongwater, I AM surprised at you! You know that realtors are consummate professionals, the experts in their field, and they’re looking out for their clients. Plus, they’re backed by a highly professional and competent organization, OREA. They’ve seen it all, and they’ve got the experience to protect you. That’s why the answers to questions like yours are CLEARLY laid out in OREA Form 100, Agreement of Purchase and Sale, and OREA Form 200, Listing Agreement. Spelling out exactly what happens in this situation avoids embarrassing misunderstandings and expensive litigation.

Just google up the forms and you’ll discover that the above is false. The standard forms do not clearly and unambiguously state what happens in this situation. But they were drafted by crack professional real estate lawyers! Ah, but who paid those lawyers?

#69 Foggy on 02.18.13 at 10:26 pm

At 38 Dr Hoof Hearted:

“BTW is good architecture illegal in Ontario ?”
————————
Not at all. Toronto was a lovely Victorian style city in the 1800’s and the early 1900’s. The city went on a rampage systemically eliminating beautiful structures and neighbourhoods everywhere in favour of “new” building. If you want to see how it used to look check out Mike Filey’s books or any picture books at Chapters on Toronto history. You’ll be surprised what used to be.

#70 DM in C on 02.18.13 at 10:43 pm

Congratulations Alex, well done you! I hope you are sitting back and enjoying that 1.3Mil. Talk about winning the lottery. Wow.

#71 Chickenlittle on 02.18.13 at 10:51 pm

Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.18.13 at 7:34 pm

BTW is good architecture illegal in Ontario ?

BTW: How are all of those “gorgeous” BC boxes? If anything BC has some of the ugliest houses anywhere, including Saskatchewan. All I ever see in BC is the same old sidesplit repeated ad nauseam.
For all of you who are not sure of what a BC box is here is a link dedicated to this phenomenon:

http://www.mountainside.ca/blog/bc-box

Or the illustrious “Vancouver Special”….

http://www.vancouverspecial.com/

Enjoy your show-stopping architecture…

And on the lighter side, aren’t you glad you weren’t this stupid?

http://fmlistings.tumblr.com/post/17882785847/3-bedroom-3-bathroom-backsplit-1-799-000-00

This was for sale last February. I wonder what the houses in the same area are going for now? Hmm…

http://www.yourgtahome.com/44a_read.php?ltl=2159458

What? No potlights?!? Not worth it, even though it’s $700k LESS than the other one.

#72 Ralph Cramdown on 02.18.13 at 10:52 pm

#5 Stew — “gold […] properties […] monetary stability.”

In constant 2011 US Dollars, gold went from a low of $225 in 1971 to a peak of $2,337 in 1980, then a low of about $400 in 2001, and another peak of $1,895 in 2011.

But that isn’t how the goldbugs see it. Gold has monetary stability, and is the eternal yardstick by which everything else should be measured. So you see, the value of EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE ENTIRE WORLD went DOWN by 90% in 9 years, then went UP 570% in the next 21 years, then went DOWN 79% over the next ten years.

Stew, going down the road of life is like riding in my car. You can either sit in the passenger seat where values are measured in dollars, marvel at my driving and travel at a smoooth 100km/h, or you can sit like a pebble between the treads of my snow tires where values are measured in gold. One instant you’re at the bottom of the wheel, in contact with the road, doing 0 km/h (we’re not skidding, central banker Ralph has it under control). One sixteenth of a second later, you’re at the top of the wheel, doing 200 km/h, another sixteenth of a second and you’re doing 0 again, not to mention the up and down motion…

Monetary stability? To me, gold’s most interesting property is its effect on its fans — they go INSANE IN THE BRAIN.

#73 Silver on 02.18.13 at 10:53 pm

#57 Gunboat… wow good memory…
I was…
got over my anger at the property and tax scam ponzi, sold and then this showed up…
… and my wife whom I love dearly (think Lisa from TV show Green Acres) could live with this one.

I still like the one up Clinton way though… very protected from vancouvers socialist hoard…

this just has a smaller steam, a smaller hill,… and leaves me more…

CASH!!!!!
Reality… is being wise…
… and sticking the bank for $90+k…
In my mind…. priceless…

Silver

#74 Freedom First on 02.18.13 at 11:03 pm

I am no longer surprised that so many people world wide have been wiped out financially by having everything invested in RE. To be “All in” any one asset is the action of a fool. Be it: RE, gold, silver, stock market…….etc. No exception. This has been written as such through the centuries. Fact.

Garth writes “balance, liquidity, diversity”. This is the truth. There is no exception. No excuses. One more saying passed down through the centuries: “debt is the money of slaves”. Truth is painful when so many people are like children: “I want what I want when I want it”. People have been brainwashed with idiotic thinking. Or should I simply say “No thinking at all”.

Beware your banker, lawyer, realtor,co-workers, friends, family. Financial insanity is rampant. Freedom First.

#75 solex on 02.18.13 at 11:04 pm

The greatest transfer of wealth we have ever seen…

2008 market crash robbed the acumulated wealth of the boomers.

The current RE buble will (has?) robbed the wealth of the younger generation (those of us that fell for it anyway).

Taxes will also inevitably go up to pay for all the freeloaders and people who rely on the government to fix their issues.

No hope left in this country…

#76 sickofbc on 02.18.13 at 11:09 pm

Mr MUIR today keeps selling the kool-aid

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/drop-in-new-listings-points-to-gradual-recovery-in-vancouver-housing/article8790439/

he sounds very fimiliar to David Lereah in 2005

Lereah has been criticized for encouraging the rise of the United States housing bubble. According to a HousingPanic blog post quoted by the Chicago Tribune, “In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers ‘Chicken Littles.’ Many of the predictions espoused by the ‘Chicken Littles’ are fast becoming closer to reality. … David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading.”

Commenting on the phenomenon of shifting NAR accounts of the national housing market, the Motley Fool reported, in June 2006

“There’s nothing funnier or more satisfying … than watching the National Association of Realtors (NAR) change its tune these days. The latest news release from this sunny-Jim industry group finally fesses up to its past fiction, but even when it admits the bubble’s going to pop, it can’t muster the courage to just come out and say it. … the NAR is full of it and will spin the numbers any way it can to keep up the pleasant fiction that all is well. … [The cracks began to show in subsequent remarks from NAR ‘Chief Economist’ David Lereah. The head outfit that ridiculed the idea of a housing bubble for years is now crying for Ben Bernanke to bring it back. … It should have been completely obvious to anyone with a loan calculator and a glance at wage increases that those months of industry bubble denials were just wishful thinking.”

#77 HogtownIndebted on 02.18.13 at 11:14 pm

#6 Taco Bell

Thanks for that listing. Wow, I would not pay half of that price for this place. And is “No Sidewalk” actually a selling feature in the 905, as described in this ad? OMG!

We’re in for something. Looking forward to tomorrow’s post.

Tonight I saw Amanda and Kevin discussing the average $27,000 consumer debt of Canadian’s (two mennee bought a KIA on credit, I guess)

Kevin argued that the best thing to do with your free money is to pay down the mortgage. After all, he said, “if your mortgage is 3% it is after tax dollars so you really are making 6% on your money.”

He’s a legitimate “billionaire”, so I believe him.

#78 Canadian Watchdog on 02.18.13 at 11:20 pm

#62 Sebee

Surely Canada won’t stand by idle?

If they do, the unemployment rate will rise and more businesses will go bankrupt. It's as simple as that. People forget Canada's economy is only as big as countries like Russia or Australia — we're not the U.S. or China can easily be whipped around by FX vigilantes (former bond vigilantes). The CAD has only been a safe currency because of the BoC's tolerance to allow for appreciation, but now it's taking its toll on our economy.

Global hedge funds like like their assets denominated in strong currencies as a hedge against the USD. If Carney cuts rates, big money will flee. If he doesn't, the economy will fall into a depression. It's one or the other. Listen to what Don Coxe says at the end of this video.

The BoC needs to be ahead of the curve and will need to cut rates within the next two quarters to take effect by year end. Expect a 25-50bps cut by mid summer.

#79 Chickenlittle on 02.18.13 at 11:26 pm

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/from-print-edition-informer/2012/06/19/bubble-boy/

I just found this. I especially enjoyed the part where you compared yourself to Dr. Phil, Mr. Turner.

Quote: “(H)e resembles a small-town lawyer: slightly rumpled suit, shaggy hair, amiable manner.”

They forgot to mention six-pack.

#80 Bottoms_Up on 02.18.13 at 11:32 pm

#25 Mic D’angelo on 02.18.13 at 6:39 pm
—————————————————
Ottawa housing to go down 40%? Ya right. Maybe if they made %50 downpayments mandatory.

If Ottawa housing went down 40% the price to average family income would be 2:1.

It’s possible to see a 5-10% drop over the next 5 years, but you’re hoping for a different ballpark.

#81 Herb on 02.18.13 at 11:33 pm

#64 Vlad …

Bravo!

#82 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.18.13 at 11:38 pm


Holy stromboli. Either you wrote that last century or I’m in another universe. Wet the bed?
*
“Was it only a year ago that 255 Connaught Drive sold for $769,000? Actually it’s a $71,000 haircut, and after the vendor forks over the 5% commission, it’ll be a scalping of $107,000.” — Goes to show how painfully fickle sheeple are, taking the ‘instant riches’ approach to life without thinking at all, instead of restructuring and reorganizing their lives to put themselves in much better shape fiscally.

That requires effort, critical thinking skills and a realization that one does not need to have a gigantic McMansion to show off a glitzy life. All one really needs is an adequately-funded lifestyle, and if it’s accomplished by renting, even better.

“. . . as the great reset was just beginning.” — That’s what Onemorething has been saying for some time — the great reset is underway, whether we know it or not.
*
#126 Good authority on 02.18.13 at 9:03 am — “Sinead O’Connor was right all along.” — Was she ever! It would be great fun to be an invisible fly on the wall, and see how many blns. the Vatican actually holds. Cheers!

#38 Dr. Hoof Hearted — “That’s sure a nice picture of THE BEATLES Ex Guru” — Isn’t his name Frank Beard, drummer for ZZ Top?!

#43 guelphstudent — “I wonder whether it is a coincidence that he is leaving Canada as stuff is about to hit the fan” — and #51 Silver — “Smart Commie flee Socialist Vancouver before Socialists take everything…” — Two good posts. Evidently (and politically), that’s the way the west is headed. This link — Obamunism — gives a clearer understanding, and UK – EUSSR Only a third of Brits. want in.
*
Iran Sumtin’ about gold and uranium. Maybe the west is losing patience with Noddin’ Yahoo? Gas Shortage in California, and Shit happens Unfortunately, all at the same time; 1:15 clip Christine Lagarde on the IMF and Cyprus; Mlnaires. Better off now than ’07; Soros Going after currencies; Interesting Shaken and stirred. See headline; Money Scandal Coup d’Etat seems to be the cause of Pope Benny the Rat’s pink slip; Empty Stores; How Supermarkets make money quite easily; Heathrow Juicy dividends.
*
0:33 clip Meteor’s impact; America’s New Image; Snowboarding in Siberia It takes all sorts, and this nutbar; Since 1988, when G.H.W. Bush took office, TPTB have appointed presidents (votes don’t count), and the west is sinking; Kashmir A thermo-nuke war, not the Led Zeppelin song; BdB Two chances — none, and less than none; 24 Year Civil War Feds. buying ammo; Demanding Action for CC. The climate is changing constantly (evolution), so what’s the beef? The Fracking Façade; Rich – Poor Different ‘net; Monsanto Locking up the world’s food supply; Another Tax Recommended This time on fizzy, sugary drinks (good); Junk Mail of the wrong kind; Harlem Shuffle But not by The Stones.

#83 Cici on 02.18.13 at 11:40 pm

#13 Gladiator

It means they are badly built from low-grade materials.

Many modern homes and condos are built quickly with little attention to longevity, insulation, solid and lasting structure, impermeability and so on.

It’s pretty common to buy a brand-new condo, only to have water leakage, drainage and roof problems within the first five years of ownership. Search leaky condos on the web for just one example.

#84 jwkimba on 02.18.13 at 11:42 pm

@taco 1.088M for a cookie cutter on a 42′ lot. Every house in vaughan is a million dollars. And it has central vac ‘roughed in’. Central vac costs extra you see….insane, really.

#85 DreamingInTechnicolour on 02.18.13 at 11:47 pm

When the housing market drops – city halls, banks, real estate firms, industrial parks and malls could quickly become ghost towns, as business slow / shut their doors or terminate/ lay people off – underwater residential mortgages across the country are only the tip of the iceberg

#86 Cici on 02.18.13 at 11:51 pm

#17/18 Million Dollar Machini$t and #20 Stew,

Ok, boys, although the scientific mini-forum on the properties of gold and silver is absolutely fascinating, there’s got to be some other blogs out there devoted to the subject.

The REAL news is that gold dragged the TSX down even further today, with Goldcorp and Barrick leading the spiral downwards.

Can’t you just give it up and admit Garth was right?

#87 An Cat Dubh on 02.18.13 at 11:51 pm

CREA admits real estate dropping..even in Kelowna.
http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=44405

#88 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 02.18.13 at 11:53 pm

@#64 Nosty
THAT was a great joke !

#89 TORONTO_GET_REAL on 02.18.13 at 11:58 pm

Rosedale, Mount Pleasant, High Park, and yes even North York (Willowdale) just to name a few are still very strong. Data available data on tosold.ca

Come on, 5-10% or two years of softening ain’t going make much difference in these areas.

#90 Debtfree on 02.19.13 at 12:04 am

People that buy KIAs don’t read reviews . Kia could be an English acronym . Lol

#91 Shawn Allen on 02.19.13 at 12:07 am

Ralph Cramdown on GOLD and on tires at 72

Your point about Gold bugs thinking that gold is constant and everything else in the world is volatile was extremely well put.

Yes, dear gold bugs call us when Money is measured in grains of Gold instead of the other way around.

And the bit about the bottom of the tire at 0 miles per hour while traveling down the road at any speed was great. It’s one of the few things I vividly recall from engineering school in Wolfville circa 1980.

The other was something about you can’t push on a rope though they do have drugs for that these days.

#92 HogtownIndebted on 02.19.13 at 12:12 am

Oh! Gotta run now TGFers – the jar lady is on the radio, and I hear she is third or fourth with a bullet behind this pathetic blog in that poll thingy that is all the rage.

She makes the point that you should not let family members give you legal advice during a divorce. And that it’s not money, but what you do with it that makes you happy. (Quick, where’s my pen?)

She throws in how the rights to one of her books have been returned to her by a publisher.

She talks about “balls (money), boxes (investments) and umbrellas (RSPs)”. I am confused and vaguely aroused.

She is interviewing someone who operates a divorce website tonight. (Towards the end of the interview she says that she has “an interest” in that company)

A look at the website and…….whose face is beaming out at us? No sign of the fellow she was speaking to on the radio. That’s right, it’s jar lady herself – it’s her own newly branded business! (And she’s promoting an event coming up soon……January 22, 2013.)

I used to be surprised at how much stuff on radio was actually advertising, and how shows like this can do that and not even have that “paid advertisement” disclaimer announcement. Then I read how CRTC rules don’t really limit how much advertising time per hour is allowed on radio, unlike television.

A good reason to be very skeptical about any private radio programming that purports to tackle financial issues, IMHO.

#93 Dr. WAYNE on 02.19.13 at 12:12 am

#48 Oceanside on 02.18.13 at 9:08 pm

If Garth was concerned he would block all the firsts. Maybe if you ignore them they will get bored and go away.

=========================

I suspect the rationale for the venerable Mr. Turner permitting us to ‘enjoy’ the ignorance of Firsters is that, within limits (his), there is freedom of speech in Canada. Some people have little hesitation in their grandiose display of benightedness. Those of us whose charitable nature accepts such postings are truly empathetic toward such Firster unfortunates; however, that’s not me ….

#94 Paully on 02.19.13 at 12:30 am

#44 Canadian Watchdog

Yes, 255 Connaught is the odd listing on your list, since it is still an original bungalow that is easily fifty-plus years old.

The others are all much larger, much newer rebuilds.

141 Connaught sat empty for what seemed like ages. It took over nine months to sell, and it went for $200K less than the original asking price.

I am not sure, but I don’t think 220 sold at all last year, rendering that asking price moot.

#95 Clevernam3 on 02.19.13 at 12:37 am

“As stated.”
Sure, you acknowledge that the first deal cratered, so it’s actually the same seller, but I expect what “#49 Facts” is peeved about is that your description of the loss implies otherwise: you make it out to be a 14% decline when really, the owner had to drop his price by about half that, bearing in mind that he would have had to pay the commission anyway. It’s not entirely clear to me, either, why we should consider the buyer’s payment of the land transfer tax as a part of the vendor’s scalping, but perhaps I’m missing some nuance of the analysis.
Poetic license, I suppose. Makes for more exciting reading than a 6.5% drop, anyhow.

“Oriental strand board” is hilarious, but to be politically correct these days it’d have to be Asian strand board I think.

#96 Half Full on 02.19.13 at 1:15 am

@51 Silver

Have you ever lived in Mission, or even been to Mission? There is a reason RE is cheaper there. I drove through it for too many years. I hope you enjoy it.

#97 a prairie dawg on 02.19.13 at 1:24 am

In Toronto and Vancouver, Canadians trust Google more than Stephen Harper, survey shows

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02/19/in-toronto-and-vancouver-canadians-trust-google-more-than-stephen-harper-survey-shows/

#98 Smoking Man's Old Man on 02.19.13 at 1:32 am

There is a fourth deity, being happily single.

#99 Dr Wayne Groupies on 02.19.13 at 1:33 am

Oh Dr Wayne..

We sit here 24/7 and wait in anticipation of your words of wisdom. They are the guiding light that guides us through the turbulence of this dark and pathetic materialistic world.

Please do not give up the fight oh Wise One..your fan base is of biblical proportions, part the seas of ignorance and lead us to the promised land !

#100 Derek R on 02.19.13 at 2:00 am

#72 Ralph Cramdown on 02.18.13 at 10:52 pm wrote:
Gold has monetary stability, and is the eternal yardstick by which everything else should be measured. So you see, the value of EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE ENTIRE WORLD went DOWN by 90% in 9 years, then went UP 570% in the next 21 years, then went DOWN 79% over the next ten years.

Well said, Ralph. That’s a great way of putting it. And, yes, gold truly does seem to have an even worse effect on people’s brains than lead does.

Buy it if you must, folks. Just don’t lick it.

#101 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 02.19.13 at 2:04 am

Re Architecture:

BC ..albeit handicapped by curse of being world class and pricey at least provides value for the architecture.

That stated, we do think it is very nice to have architects in Ontario let their seeing eye dogs draft both the preliminary and final plans.

…”over and out Woof – Woof “…

#102 Derek R on 02.19.13 at 2:08 am

#66 JSS on 02.18.13 at 10:20 pm wrote about KIA and Garth replied:
Too bad the Korean Imitation Car company can’t spell ‘Canadians’

They don’t seem to be too good at spelling “complements” either.

#103 Dr. WAYNE on 02.19.13 at 2:32 am

#61 Gladiator on 02.18.13 at 10:00 pm

AK, Are you Dr. WAYNE’s brother?

==========================

Are you kidding? Who would want to be my brother … and feel inferior… so the universe only created ME.

#104 Tim on 02.19.13 at 2:40 am

So despite the economy and all the gloom and doom, a crappy little old house in Toronto now only costs $700,000…where do I sign! lol

#105 meslippery on 02.19.13 at 3:00 am

25 Ronaldo on 02.18.13 at 8:57 am

Smoking Man = Beach Girl = Slippery Multiple personalities and all with the same writing style…lol

So Beach Girl is smoking man and Smoking man is
Amanda Lang and she Hot..
I love Beach Girl

#106 nubbers on 02.19.13 at 5:42 am

Thankful for the little things @36

Your comment that the cost of the car is rolled into the mortgage makes me realise that by offering the car with the deal, the developer has added $20,000 to the sales price.

If he ever gets a sale, that is – the Civic would wilt any sense of house horniness if I were viewing those appartments.

By the way, I am in the UK, for now, where the Honda Civic is a car for people over 50 (like me – ulp!).

#107 NoName on 02.19.13 at 7:26 am

This 10yrs old child of mine, is half way to become CSS ninja, she was showing me her new website yesterday afternoon, and she was telling me that domain on shred server would be to slow for what she need… ccc… And all this because she didn’t like mine craft texture pack. She is turning in to nerd…

A nerd (adjective: nerdy) is a person, typically described as being overly intellectual, obsessive, or socially impaired.

Interesting read, how big is nerd economy… (Software)

http://goo.gl/NbUW8

#108 Buy? Curious? on 02.19.13 at 8:16 am

I just want to let any of the wives out there that if they need someone to talk to, a shoulder to cry on, or just someone to lean on during these tough times, I’m here. There are husbands out there faking success and talking a big game, living in big houses but we’ll see the truth over the next year. Everyone knows that those types of guys are over-compensating for something.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vs-prABqMU

#109 Ret on 02.19.13 at 8:27 am

The Willowdale pile re-sold for $720,000 because the banks are willing to give out $600,000 plus mortgages on such fine abodes as long as they are backstopped by CMHC.

For sure, the new owners have a total $200,000 yearly income so there is really no cause to be concerned.

#110 bigrider on 02.19.13 at 8:56 am

Alex at #40.

We must know each other directly or indirectly as I have lived in the neighborhood for over 30 years.

Was your home on Westwood ? Bryson? Dennison? or the most venerable of all, the best of the best, Maryvale by any chance?

Anyway ,no matter. What has happened there ,and your description being 100% factual, is truely a sight to behold.

#111 pbrasseur on 02.19.13 at 9:06 am

“Tomorrow: why the scariest is yet to come.”

My answer to that question.

Because contrary to the 90s where we were younger (we had time) and we had fiscal wiggle room (for the GST for example) to get us out of the hole.

This time we got no margin. Zero, none.

That’s what’s scary.

#112 AK on 02.19.13 at 9:15 am

#61 Gladiator on 02.18.13 at 10:00 pm

“Are you Dr. WAYNE’s brother?”
——————————————————————

Dude, you have no sense of humour at all.

Lighten up, life is too short. :-)

#113 thinker on 02.19.13 at 9:22 am

I am amazed how you post day in and day out. The fraud chopper rides was really something, however they alone didn’t drive homes up in Vancouver.

You are very good on about what you talk about the least (short gold, long prefs) but admittedly have been wrong on what you talk about the most (Real Estate)

Why do you think that is?

Because I am right. — Garth

#114 Dona Collins on 02.19.13 at 9:24 am

When I worked in insurance, I had the experience of working closely with a builder. He built a very large complex of condos and labeled it as a 50+ community. Construction was only partially complete when he decided to let buyers move into their purchased units. That voided his Builder’s Risk coverage, but he was in a rush to get buyers in so that he could sell more. To this day, at least 7 years later, that building is very likely still at under 50% occupancy. Why? He built a high-end community in an awkward location during a rough economic time.

Now, I keep driving past an area where a new shopping complex was built and I see signs for a series of townhouses by – you guessed it – the same builder. The land is ready. He just needs sales. I wonder how long that land will sit with paved roads and power connections sitting out of the ground before they realize they picked a poor location to build high-end townhouses in what many in our area still consider rough economic times.

#115 willworkforpickles on 02.19.13 at 9:39 am

Blinded by Ho— horny-ness …, inflicted with lemming-gitis…, the out of control plague has spread like wildfire . …..but as for the bell tolls with wagons drawn once again come the sullen cries of – Bring Out The Dead – Bring Out The Dead.
…I shall just keep collecting firewood.

#116 Herb on 02.19.13 at 9:44 am

#90 Debtfree,

“Kia could be an English acronym.”

It is, debtfree. KIA means “Killed in Action” in the militarese of the US, UK, Canada and a few other countries. Kia should have done more checking on brand name identity.

#117 willworkforpickles on 02.19.13 at 9:45 am

The scariest is yet to come.

#118 Herb on 02.19.13 at 9:49 am

#103 Dr. Wayne,

“… so the universe only created ME.” Physician, heal thyself of Smoking Man Solipsism (DSM IV xxx)!

#119 TEMPLE on 02.19.13 at 10:28 am

#75 solex on 02.18.13 at 11:04 pm

2008 market crash robbed the acumulated wealth of the boomers.

Except the markets are back up near their highs, not counting dividends. Besides, nobody put all their accumulated wealth in the market all at once in 2008.

The current RE buble will (has?) robbed the wealth of the younger generation (those of us that fell for it anyway).

Fools and their money…

Although, I do feel a bit sorry for people manipulated into the biggest purchase of their lives by the slick sales tactics of high-school graduates with real estate licenses. Then again, it’s been glaringly obvious that real estate has been over-valued in Canada for almost a decade.

Taxes will also inevitably go up to pay for all the freeloaders and people who rely on the government to fix their issues.

That isn’t why taxes will go up. In any case, learn to reduce your taxes if you don’t like paying them. You know about the dividend tax credit and the tax-favourable treatment of capital gains, right? And the TFSA and RRSP? That is just the simple stuff. The thinking class in Canada gets a lot of tax breaks.

TEMPLE

#120 Daisy Mae on 02.19.13 at 10:28 am

#23NorthOf49

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12745791&PidKey=-901178719

was $970,000
now $649,000 (02/15/13)

**********************

First thing I noticed was the weeds growing thru the pavement. And the soiled carpets. Hmmm…..

#121 afraidit allmightend on 02.19.13 at 10:33 am

Increased stats for US ‘housing recovery’ entirely manipulated and bogus…..at least from the investment perpective for the average joe. I keep hearing announcements about RE on the rebound in the US…..but that only sounds good if your not involved in the analytical game. What has happened is an ‘end game’ strategy by powerful politically driven media outlets to improve the economy by ‘talking things up’…if they vote democrat…then they’ll tell you that Obama’s America is seeing improvement……simply not true……so if you get your ‘truth’ from the wrong newspapers….you’re being misled.

Banks are still foreclosing in record numbers….especially on the Alt-A ‘jumbo mortgages’. They are mysteriously holding back a tidal wave of shadow inventory in the tens of millions of units.

The listing count is dismal…so this makes even one sale a 100% improvement month on month…..the increase in the face of low volume makes the uneducated think something is going on.

These same unwary buyers are becoming….flippers’ again…..multiple buyers are showing up as primarily ‘Dentists and Chinese’ as it has been described to me……no actual action in the retail segment…..it’s all been specualtion.

Interesting twist……large corporate buys of hundreds and even thousands of SFH’s holding on spec. Companies like Marriot…Hilton…Housing America….are buying failed projects and advertising them as ‘corporate rental’ units’……..empty of course because they are trying to ask hotel rates for empty condo’s by the month…..still enough to skew the stats.

Bottom line….anyone who trys to tell you that there is a ground wave building in the economy is lying to you…or is simple minded enough to believe what they’ve read in their favorite leftist rag.

Folks who bought Phoenix when I suggested have made real and significant profits. That’s not bogus. — Garth

#122 Daisy Mae on 02.19.13 at 10:36 am

#34 KEN: “Cornflakes refers to the oriental stand board common in today’s construction. It’s pieces of scrap product glued together to produce sheathing. It is used in floors, exterior walls and roofing. Cheap and plentiful- perfect for building cheap boxes to house people.”

******************

Otherwise known as particleboard?

#123 Pr on 02.19.13 at 10:43 am

Mark Carney know the crash will not happen, because servicing the debt, will be very cheap, for decades, Interest rate will stay to the bottom even lower. 100% sure. So he will be back in 5 years, smiling, and tell everyone that everything is fine, like i told you.

#124 Silver on 02.19.13 at 10:57 am

#82 Vlad thank you….
always enjoy your links…
we read a lot of the same stuff…

#96 half Full…
I’m small a small town in southern Alberta…
… and Vancouver’s sense of entitlement scares me more than Mission right now…
I am moving from a dense core of stupidity…

One of the parties we bid against in court on the property,… he lost…. came over and welcomed me to the neighborhood… not likely that would have happened in Vancouver… is it.
Vancouver is full of a bunch of “Real Estate Hillbilly’s”
not much cultural depth to them…
But more importantly….. I get to spend a shit load more time at home with the wife because I don’t have to work as much to support the useless “Socialist Public Service(note servants not administrators)” employees of Vancouver.

Silver

#125 Daisy Mae on 02.19.13 at 10:58 am

#54COW MAN: “Sir Garth: You must sleep better at night, now knowing, you are now finally right. I know I do.”

*********************

It’s Garths business to know and predict this stuff. He’s not just a pretty face, you know. LOL

#126 Daisy Mae on 02.19.13 at 11:12 am

#66 JSS: “Canadian’s…”

This actually means ‘Canadian is’.

Not in KIAnese. — Garth

#127 Ralph Cramdown on 02.19.13 at 11:22 am

#119 TEMPLE — The thinking class in Canada gets a lot of tax breaks.

THAT’S the truth.

People should do their taxes by hand, on paper, and think about all the boxes they didn’t put numbers in, and the consequences thereof. Rather than putting in a bunch of numbers, filing, and accepting fate, plan how to pay less next year and in the years to come.

#128 Pr on 02.19.13 at 11:29 am

Interest rate will stay rock bottom,may be not decades, but for a long long time. This is why Mark Carney is all smiling, and tell that he will be back in 5 years with little change. At 2 % a mortgage, its not difficult to know why.

#129 Voter on 02.19.13 at 11:34 am

Garth – I voted 4 times already and plan to vote again for Greater Fool. Cheers!!

Don’t. — Garth

#130 AK on 02.19.13 at 12:04 pm

M&A Fever: Suddenly Huge Companies Have Started Buying Each Other Again

They obviously realize there is value on hand.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/m-fever-suddenly-huge-companies-started-buying-other-151211646.html

#131 fancy_pants on 02.19.13 at 12:05 pm

#11 claudius emperor on 02.18.13 at 5:53 pm

oh! The economic stimulus and cash injections are not satisfying enough?

#132 Sebee on 02.19.13 at 12:17 pm

#78 Canadian Watchdog

I see CAD $ devaluation as probably the only card left to play. By devaluing, they can boost manufacturing, investment, competitiveness, even bring back North Hollywood and travel from US. They can also create some inflation to justify the difference in average home price between Canada and US. If values drop 15% and another 20% is wiped out in exchange rate, suddenly we’re near US. Problem is everyone else is playing this card, so benefits may be limited.

Of course my theories are not those of an economist and the fact that we’re a resource economy has an impact on our dollar. Although as we’re hearing with $37 per barrel discounts on that hard to refine Oil Sands oil no one seems to want, is that oil really propping up our dollar? How easy would it be to move that rebate over to exchange rate? US refineries would still pay the same USD amount for it in the end. Changes nothing for them.

Just like iPod was a replay of the Walkman, I’m starting to get the feeling that next 10 years will be a replay of the 90s.

#133 Devore on 02.19.13 at 12:19 pm

#23 NorthOf49

Great post Garth. Meanwhile in the Hammer:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12745791&PidKey=-901178719

I’ve never said or typed “lol”, but this one finally justifies it.

Walk Score® : 3

I think this means you can’t even walk to your mailbox. Lol, suburbia.

#134 Carlos on 02.19.13 at 12:23 pm

#113 thinker

That’s because he doesn’t know he is wrong. RE is that magical here in GTA.

Didn’t I just write about that ‘magic’? — Garth

#135 Sockeyemoon on 02.19.13 at 12:24 pm

Solex: No hope left in this country…
I dunno if you should be so pessimistic. Sure the 30 million or so Canadians had a lot of wealth knocked down by the 08 crash and the RE fiasco but… this isn’t Guatemala. Canada is the second largest country in a world looking for land and resources. With a little creativity and some room for talented immigrants we should be able to get out of this mess.

#136 Devore on 02.19.13 at 12:30 pm

#34 Ken R

Cornflakes refers to the oriental stand board common in today’s construction. It’s pieces of scrap product glued together to produce sheathing. It is used in floors, exterior walls and roofing. Cheap and plentiful- perfect for building cheap boxes to house people.

That’s “oriented strand board”, OSB. And it’s cheap as in value, not cheap in price. Also known as woodchips & glue, sometimes cornflakes & glue. It’s a bunch of woodchips, basically, sorted to overlap, and lathered with glue. Will offgas formaldehyde throughout its useful life, reacts catastrophically to moisture, and burns ever so lovely. There is also not a fire department on the continent that will send men into a burning one of these to save anything, so I hope your insurance is up to date, and your loved ones know their multiple escape routes.

#137 John S on 02.19.13 at 12:33 pm

Time is running OUT!

Vote NOW!

http://www.modestmoney.com/top-canadian-finance-blogs-2013/

Your Welcome, Garth!

#138 Smoking Man on 02.19.13 at 12:57 pm

HERB you got it wrong“…

so the universe only created ME.” Physician, heal thyself of Smoking Man Solipsism (DSM IV xxx)

………………………..

You let your belief system have to much weight over truths. Hence your knowlage is off.

I’m more of some one with super human Epistemology in my sole..

#139 COW MAN on 02.19.13 at 1:14 pm

# 74 Freedom First

Most of all from my experience, be aware of the Life Insurance Sales Person. Most commissions sales people need to be dealt with under caution.

#140 Harvard Grad on 02.19.13 at 1:18 pm

VLAD, yesterday’s post from you – Excellent – I take everything with a grain of salt, but you gotta wonder what really is going on in this World.

I spent the past 4 days on business with 1 day of pleasure in the States. If they quip that the US in in recovery mode – I surely missed it. Stopped in LA and spent 48 hours in a hotel in the heart of desperation. The city looks like it sold it’s soul to the devil – a World Power that appears to have lost it’s edge.

On my 3rd day had a meeting in Detroit – which is in such a sad state of affairs. The local news was all about the pending Bankruptcy filing the City so badly needs to do – if you blind folded me and dropped me into Detroit and told me this was a run down 3rd world country – I would have totally agreed – sad –

Final trip was into Boston, my hometown – shopped at one of Boston’s busiest malls – the lot was near full of cars – but most stores were advertising Big Sales, no one looked like they had any bags – just walkers –

There appears to be alot of anger brewing with the gun control issue – there is alot of angry gun owners who’s voice is not being documented –

American needs to get it’s house in order before they can chirp that they are on the road to prosperity once again.

Love the blog G

#141 Dorothy on 02.19.13 at 1:19 pm

#90 – Debtfree

I bought a Kia Optima in Jan and belive me when I say I did a LOT of research beforehand, including reading reviews.
All I can say is I absolutely LOVE my new car. It’s peppy, handles well, and includes a lot of features for the price. So I don’t understand why it’s getting such rough treatment on this website.
Frankly I hadn’t even considered the K.I.A. acronym angle, and am willing to bet the vast majority of folk are just like me. Most of us just want a comfortable reliable car, that looks good, drives well, and is not too expensive. And the Kia does all that.
I’m not a car salesman, just a very satisfied customer.

#142 Axxman on 02.19.13 at 1:27 pm

You can’t ever accurately call a bottom to the housing market because 1) the market is quite thinly traded, and 2) there appears to be no end to human stupidity.

#143 Fed-up on 02.19.13 at 1:29 pm

@#140 Who can you Trust
—————————————————————–

I am not defending Garth (he does just fine on his own), but if someone had told me back in 2007 that real estate in Canada would have gone off to the insane heights that we are at today, I would have fitted them with a straight-jacket myself. Thank the genius record low interest rates, zero down 40 year mortgages and lax lending practices of our esteemed banks for a reckless market that should have been stopped dead in its tracks and deeply corrected back in 2008. I’m a multiple property owner in Toronto with no mortgages and these valuations we have today are nothing to be proud of.

#144 claudius emperor on 02.19.13 at 1:44 pm

86 Cici

You are conveniently looking short term.

A long term passive (preferred) portfolio should not be judged in short term.

Otherwise you are timing the market. Good luck with that.

#145 lawboy on 02.19.13 at 1:48 pm

#23 Northof49

Great post Garth. Meanwhile in the Hammer:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12745791&PidKey=-901178719
…..

What a creepy house. The pics look like they are from a book detailing a mass murder. (And in the lower level kitchen, pictured here, the killers caught up with Marie, bludgeoning her 64 times with an aluminum bat the killers had discovered in the family’s garage. )

#146 claudius emperor on 02.19.13 at 1:57 pm

Is not oil a hard comodity? Should I sell My RDS ?

#147 Andrewski on 02.19.13 at 2:18 pm

Take notice of who built this project in Richmond:

# 1 10999 STEVESTON HY, Richmond
$528,000

Mukhtiar S. Sian, Sutton Grp West Coast (van49)

Price includes net HST. BRAND NEW CAR (Honda civic) with every townhouse. Built by Sian Dev & Cont Ltd. 3 level with 3 bdrms & 2.5 bathrooms, 2 car double/tandem garage, convenient and desirable location. Close to schools, community centre, bus stop, Ironwood Mall.Standard features include:

#148 John Prine on 02.19.13 at 2:20 pm

Just looked at completed sales of residential properties for East and West Vancouver from January 19th to Feb 18th.

2011 971 completed
2102 772 ”
2013 546 ”
So sales are down 30% from same time last year and 44% from 2011.

#149 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.19.13 at 2:38 pm

#114 Dona Collins on 02.19.13 at 9:24 am

Yeah…that’s a major downside of Booming Markets.

Builders throw up anything anywhere to satisfy House Horny demand.

Buy now…really pay later….

#150 Devil's Paralegal on 02.19.13 at 2:38 pm

77 HogtownIndebted on 02.18.13 at 11:14 pm

Kevin O’Leary: “if your mortgage is 3% it is after tax dollars so you really are making 6% on your money.”

What a brilliant guy. Except that I don’t make half a million dollars a year (and I think- maybe- most other Canadians don’t, either), so I don’t pay 50% income tax. And, of course, if inflation is running (or you think it might) at 2%, and your marginal tax rate is around 30%, then paying off a 3% mortgage (even in after-tax dollars) is more like earning something like 1.4%.

I’m pretty sure most people can manage to earn 1.4%.

#151 Devil's Paralegal on 02.19.13 at 2:46 pm

#135 Devore

That one (in Flamborough) is not suburb, it’s rural. It has acreage (well, if two acres counts as acreage). In rural areas, some people live in houses where they prefer not to walk to the mailbox.

Much better is this one that someone posted in Vaughan: http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12804962&PidKey=-922259659 Walk score of 13! 40′ lot, which means none of the privacy of the country, but all of the inability to walk to a park with your kids- the worst of both worlds.

#152 Oakvillian on 02.19.13 at 2:47 pm

prices to stay strong. no tsunami of listings ..

http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/02/19/house_sales_slump_83_per_cent_across_gta_as_of_mid_february.html

#153 My thoughts on 02.19.13 at 2:51 pm

I voted :) so… Some people are lucky to sell and get out in time. I see soooo many houses from last year starting to come back in the market. Agents are confident what dollar amount they will sell for. No lowering of prices yet. I actually think its better not to even attend open houses as the agents/sellers are just not getting the message. Even if they sell now. At the listed price they think they are making money… Because they cannot do math. But the truth is that they are lucky to break even. The longer they wait the more they lose. Just like watching used cars go down in price :)

#154 45north on 02.19.13 at 2:51 pm

pbrasseur: why the scariest is yet to come.”

Because

This time we got no margin.

that’s what I think

#155 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.19.13 at 3:00 pm

Iceland rises further into investment grade status

http://m.guardiannews.com/world/2013/feb/14/iceland-investment-grade-status

QUOTE:

Iceland’s rehabilitation after several years as a pariah in the global financial markets gathered pace last night after ratings agency Fitch said the island nation’s debts had moved further into investment grade status.

Fitch said Iceland’s debts had been upgraded to BBB – from the lowest rung of the investment grade category, BBB- – after a strong recovery from the financial crisis.

Reykjavik’s meteoric recovery comes after its 300,000 residents were told they would be locked out of the world’s financial markets for decades after they refused to rescue a group of bankrupt banks in 2008.

Unlike Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the Icelandic government let the country’s banks become insolvent rather than spend tens of billions of pounds on bailout funds.

Ireland, which spent more than €40bn rescuing its banks, recently re-negotiated a series of loans with the EU that will mean its debt payments stretch beyond 2050.

Spain could still be forced to accept an EU bailout after a further deterioration in the financial stability of its major banks, which have only recently revealed the full extent of they bad loans they made in the run up to the banking crisis.

etc .etc.

====================================

See what a good investment a deep moat is !!!!

#156 fancy_pants on 02.19.13 at 3:13 pm

The markets tanked in 2008 as did RE briefly in late 2008 early 2009. The problem is the govt didn’t allow for free market corrections to occur. Instead they changed the rules, artificially propped it up and blew it full of hot air.

Economic fundamentals generally work well except now the financial system has become so complex and gov’t intervention so heavy that even the gurus with big balls (crystal ones) have a foggy time reading the signs.

If they would only pop the top and shine them headlights. beep. beep.

#157 Canadian Watchdog on 02.19.13 at 3:15 pm

#134 Sebee

By devaluing, they can boost manufacturing, investment, competitiveness, even bring back North Hollywood and travel from US.

It could work, but they would have to sustain depreciation against Canada's major trading partners, who are also devaluing their currencies. The end result becomes less effective and harder for central banks to quantify the size of their next operation.

#158 Toronto CA on 02.19.13 at 3:36 pm

Wow…is that right that even the TREB press puffery is showing a decline in 416 resale condo prices of 8.4% year over year in mid February?

That’s a bigger decline than we’ve seen before in Toronto, more akin to Vancouver. And this is just getting started. When all those condos under construction come due and the interest rates finally rise again…ouch.

#159 Bottoms_Up on 02.19.13 at 3:57 pm

#109 Ret on 02.19.13 at 8:27 am
————————————
I would agree with you, the people that bought that house likely put 5% down and make $200k, OR are carrying over a much larger downpayment and have more modest incomes.

#160 Bottoms_Up on 02.19.13 at 4:00 pm

#106 nubbers on 02.19.13 at 5:42 am
—————————————–
That’s funny, over here the Honda civic is seen as a sporty car for the young. Insurance companies charge a lot for coverage on those cars, and some youngins modify them and race them.

#161 Bottoms_Up on 02.19.13 at 4:08 pm

#40 Alex on 02.18.13 at 7:51 pm
————————————-
Dude you hit the lottery (got in to the right place at the right time) and were smart enough to cash your ticket.

#162 Steven Rowlandson on 02.19.13 at 4:09 pm

Most Americans would tend to agree with you Garth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef0VG1WEP10&list=PLa8S4GilqogSviCmzIY1jzXCSKcPw5XKl

#163 Beach Girl on 02.19.13 at 4:09 pm

Made my day. Get the mail and someone is trying to lend me money for my funeral. I won’t care, just throw me into a snow bank. But after the lift, feeling a major more confident. Need that advertisement like a hole in the head. Which brings me to this.

WOW, strange story on the runner with no feet. Do you think she was trying to run away? Me bad. Insensitive. Betcha he has a hard time getting a date, if isn’t sent away forever. On Valentines Day no less.

Getting excited about the stock market.

#164 Beach Girl on 02.19.13 at 4:10 pm

Love that pic. LOL.

#165 Spiltbongwater on 02.19.13 at 4:44 pm

#167 Beach Girl on 02.19.13 at 4:09 pm

From reading about the evidence against Oscar Pistorius and what is alledged to have happened, it appears that Oscar does not have a leg to stand on.

#166 T.J. BONES on 02.19.13 at 5:00 pm

Sir Garth: There is a rumor that the Competition watchdog is looking into sales commissions for Mutual Funds and Life insurance salespersons. Now if the watchdog rules that commissions are too high and illegal, that will lower the MER rates or eliminate them all together. Would this make the said funds more attractive for investment. Would it make the mutual funds competitive and thus rise in price. Disclaimer I have been buying maximums of the investments for 40 plus years, as that was all that was all that was available back then! Now I am starting to ” bleed ” them into Preferred and dividend paying stocks. Main question is this the right time to change directions as Equiditys are over priced or are they

#167 Sebee on 02.19.13 at 5:06 pm

#161 Canadian Watchdog

This is the beauty of that move if BoC plays it. We’re not a big economy, so perhaps other don’t pay such a close attention. And we’re going to have an ally with serious influence over Europe in Carney. Add to this the fact that we have a proximity advantage over everyone else but Mixico to the #1 market in the world, and I think it’s fair to say that our main competitor here is not the world but USD. US has taken manufacturing jobs back to US, and we need to pull some back with a currency advantage. Can it be done? They already have the data form the 90s and early 2000s before the CAD $ starting going up. Will US respond to Canada’s effort to devalue currency? They didn’t before. Why would they now? They have their pile of heap problems to deal with.

RE and Construction weight in GDP is disproportionate as stated by Garth repeatedly, and jobs likely shedding in the segment from now on – something has to pick up the slack or we’re in for a doozie of a punding when we add the debt/LOC/BestBuys closing. I’m not sure Canadian economy needs any more Baristas. What we need, as many say – is to go back to making stuff. Germany makes stuff, and they seem to be holding up just fine in Europe. Euro helps them quite a bit, while hurting other countries, right? And now Germany is slowing a bit, and what do you hear? Euro is too strong.

When politicians and bankers will be put against the wall to do something about jobs after this RE really starts the correction and condo project cancelltions start they will have to provide some stimulus to the economy. Rates lever is spent, what’s left? Exchange rate – indeed. I’m really talking myself into believing this will happen. Nice 60 day steady move into the teens. I’ve seen quick 7% exchange rate moves in a few days. If it happens guess what Garth will say about Buy America? Yup. If you listend, you would have gotten a nice 20% exchchange rate benefit on top of your growth.

#168 Pr on 02.19.13 at 5:06 pm

Sheriff Warns Of “Second American Revolution” If Gun Grabbers Get Their way
Milwaukee County law enforcer urged his citizens to arm themselves.
This is no joke if you plane to : sell canada buy usa.

#169 Frank le skank on 02.19.13 at 5:08 pm

#162 Toronto CA on 02.19.13 at 3:36 pm
Sales down, inventory up…. Is this what a soft landing looks like?

#170 Vangrrl on 02.19.13 at 5:10 pm

That house in Nova Scotia is a beauty, wow. So out of touch here in Van.
And what is that filtering through the trees in the photo… is that the stuff they call sunshine… ??

#171 thinker on 02.19.13 at 5:21 pm

Garth, rates can still go down? What if prices stay stable at these levels for the next 5-8 years. The best analysis is to calculate constant mortgage dollars – What did a 1000$ a month buy me in house in 1990, 1995, etc…what you will find Garth is that the chap who paid lower for a house in 2007 at higher rates and higher for that house in 2013 at lower rates actually has the SAME monthly payment.

I know you will say the debt is larger, but it’s also cost less to service. Modern finance ignore that larger debt picture and enables people to operate on max on monthly’s

The way this stops is if jobs go fast – not happening
Rates ballon – they are going lower everyday
House prices go up in rapid fashion from here- they are not, and are stable. The only bargain out in GTA is a studio overlooking the Gardiner with a water view in the reflection in your neighbors window

#172 Herb on 02.19.13 at 5:22 pm

#141 Smoking Man,

that you are someone with “super human Epistemology in my sole” is a truth I could believe – if you were referring to a shoe sole. Were you to style yourself as an “idiot savant”, I’d be inclined to believe the first part.

#173 happy renter on 02.19.13 at 5:34 pm

Want to know from a vetran stockbroker what might happen to the bond market soon? Check out maxkeiser.com for his bold prediction.

#174 Mike on 02.19.13 at 5:43 pm

the scariest is yet to come because of the general dearth (lack of) of reading comprehension that is exposed on these pathetic (scotch fueled?) pages every day

no child left behind = dumbing down the sheeple

the peak of RE was 2006 – ever since there has been manipulation to an extent that has never been seen before

instead of telling everyone RE is safe and fun and never going down, put your money where your mouth is

go put on your own money into RE, leverage yourself, nothing can go wrong, make sure you keep everyone informed at how well you are doing….

I am talking to TO GET REAL , Carlos and the the rest of you RE bulls

now’s the time to double down kids

be sure to keep us informed of how well you do

#175 Smoking Man on 02.19.13 at 6:10 pm

Herb I knew you would bite at sole… Lol

Just won 10 bucks at the tax farm in a bet that I said you will chirp about the sole.. Hum is it soul…. O well

Bottom line if you where a philosophy dude and read my bs from time to time you would know that I am really good at Epistemology.

It’s why I’m always right….

#176 Ken R on 02.19.13 at 6:21 pm

#65Foggy on 02.18.13 at 10:19 pm
At 34 Ken R:
“Cornflakes refers to the oriental stand board common in today’s construction. …”
————————–
Those damn Chinese – even selling us cheap building products.

Actually Ken it’s “oriented strand board” referring to the grain direction of the wood chips.

Sorry for the typo, no harm or pun intended.

#177 Westcdn on 02.19.13 at 6:30 pm

While I wait for things to happen, I found this video then SM might enjoy. It is a video about apparent Japanese business students having learned what is expected of them. Creative thinking is not required, only obedience.
I am testing a new method of hyperlinking more than anything else.
Impressive after the one minute mark. Link is “marching”, should it work.

#178 Ken R on 02.19.13 at 6:30 pm

#138Devore on 02.19.13 at 12:30 pm
#34 Ken R

That’s “oriented strand board”, OSB. And it’s cheap as in value, not cheap in price. Also known as woodchips & glue, sometimes cornflakes & glue. It’s a bunch of woodchips, basically, sorted to overlap, and lathered with glue. Will offgas formaldehyde throughout its useful life, reacts catastrophically to moisture, and burns ever so lovely. There is also not a fire department on the continent that will send men into a burning one of these to save anything, so I hope your insurance is up to date, and your loved ones know their multiple escape routes.

No OSB in my home, plywood only. I built it so I know what’s in it.

#179 Ralph Cramdown on 02.19.13 at 6:32 pm

#175 thinker — “The best analysis is to calculate constant mortgage dollars – What did a 1000$ a month buy me in house in 1990, 1995, etc…what you will find Garth is that the chap who paid lower for a house in 2007 at higher rates and higher for that house in 2013 at lower rates actually has the SAME monthly payment.”

And those are perfectly equivalent in the United States where the most common mortgages at 30 or 15 year fixed rate. Here, where the most common mortgage is a 5 year balloon, borrowers are subject to interest rate risk at renewal. I’d much rather buy a house at a low price with a high rate than vice versa — the rate you pay is only for the first five years, but the price you bought at is forever.

#180 Ralph Cramdown on 02.19.13 at 6:41 pm

#177 happy renter — “vetran [sic] stockbroker […] maxkeiser”

Uhh… you’s been had if you believe that.

#181 Westcdn on 02.19.13 at 6:41 pm

Crap, the link is marching Crap, the link is if my abbreviated version doesn’t work http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p0DsVPkyZg&feature=youtu.be

#182 Musty Basement Dweller Wannabe on 02.19.13 at 7:23 pm

The retired boomer is digging the hole for my For Sale sign on the front lawn house right at this moment.

Guess we will see soon how keen the Nanaimo buyers are to chomp at the bit and invest in real estate. My real estate agent says its a good time to buy so it must be true. He says there is a lot of pent up demand so that sounds good.

Been looking at a few moldy suites to rent, some really nice ones too, and ran into a few pale faced renter tenants emerging from them. It’s all very interesting, tons of rentals available as mortgage helpers seem to be exploding in number.

#183 Canadian Watchdog on 02.19.13 at 7:31 pm

#171 Sebee

What we need, as many say – is to go back to making stuff.

Making stuff today is the average joe/jane buying a stock and saying they own a company that makes stuff, including debt products.

#184 Musty Basement Dweller Wannabe on 02.19.13 at 7:35 pm

Sorry I forgot to add that I love my Real Estate Agent. He is the consummate, stereotypical, tacky Real Estate Agent that exemplifies everything I have known and disliked about agents for years. Unsurprisingly, his sales number are pretty high. I just hope he gets the job done before this market goes to heck in a hand cart.

#185 TurnerNation on 02.19.13 at 7:40 pm

Equity market is set to go parabolic here boys. Last one in…

#186 jess on 02.19.13 at 7:48 pm

seed innovation ?
As of December 2012, Monsanto had filed 142 alleged seed patent infringement lawsuits involving
410 farmers and 56 small farm businesses in 27 states…Sums awarded to Monsanto in 72 recorded judgments total
$23,675,820.99.30
http://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Seed-Giants_final.pdf

Gates and Slim taking on the seed cartel
..”We want to facilitate the movement of those (genetic) traits to the countries of the developing world that request them, that want them,” Lumpkin said. “Nothing is being pushed, nothing is being forced, and CIMMYT will not profit.”

Gates noted there are “legitimate issues, but solvable issues” around wider GM crop use, and that solutions could include distributing GM crops that are patented but require no royalty payments.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/agriculture/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=10866180

#187 Beach Girl on 02.19.13 at 7:52 pm

DELETED

#188 confessions of a real estate bear on 02.19.13 at 7:52 pm

Thinker. I wish you would

#189 Smoking Man on 02.19.13 at 8:04 pm

#183 TurnerNation on 02.19.13 at 7:40 pmEquity market is set to go parabolic here boys. Last one in…

Yes the volume says it all……

#190 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.19.13 at 8:14 pm


#134 Sebee — “I see CAD $ devaluation as probably the only card left to play.”, #143 Harvard Grad — I take everything with a grain of salt, but you gotta wonder what really is going on in this World., #157 45north — This time we got no margin., #178 Mike — “now’s the time to double down kids”, Blacksheep, SMan, jess, Dr. Hoof Hearted and others — Good posts. There’s a whole lotta basketball cases in charge of running this planet presently, so with all the chatter about devaluing and deflation, it may be worth checking these out — here. and here.

Thought For The Day! (wrh.com) — “When the IMF and the World Bank force a country to cut wages, lay off workers, produce for export instead of their own people, and sell off public property to cronies for less than its value, that’s called”economic reform.” — Robert Naiman, Toward Freedom magazine, November 1999, p2. Note the word ‘export’ in the quote and the following link — BoE.
*
Social Control The reason why TPTB want to rid the world of public central banks (like Libya’s and Iran’s) is they want to keep the debts, thus keeping themselves in a position of power, but Post US Fed Either America will get better or it won’t; 8:22 clip Pre-GD1 riots; Forced Downsizing Taxing spare bedrooms; Bulgarian citizens want to leave the EU; Bolivia Economic growth with increased equality.
*
Cdns. and Sandy Hook Interesting take, and 25:57 clip Sandy Hook from Anderson Cooper’s view; 100% Organic Bhutan is the first country to do so; Apple and others “For all those MAC owners who assume they are safe from the misery the Windows people have to put up with.” wrh.com; SARS Pt. 2?

#191 Canadian Watchdog on 02.19.13 at 8:23 pm

#193 Smoking Man

“Yes the volume says it all……”

What volume?

#192 Smoking Man on 02.19.13 at 8:25 pm

Watch Dog,

Sarcasm maybe, lmao

#193 Daisy Mae on 02.19.13 at 8:38 pm

My son cleared this up for me….for anyone interested in the ‘cornflake McMansion’ issue.

“OSB stands for Orientated Strand Board where the board strands are orientated and glued in different directions. It is different than Particle Board.”

#194 Alex on 02.19.13 at 8:39 pm

#63 LS in Arbutus– for sure the place we are renting is not as nice as our old home but it is very clean,large and very comfortable and yes rent is $2200, remember I don’t think I would be able to get even close to what I sold for. In fact i know for sure.
#110 Bigrider–Can you believe I was on Roosevelt Dr.
renting on Maryvale now.
#165 Bottoms_Up, hey Dude thanks a lot and that’s exactly what my friend Reg said “lottery” but you know some said I should have waited to get more but we all know greed will always get you not me thou.

What I really forgot to mention yesterday is that if it wasn’t for my friend Lou I would most likely still be in my old house less couple of hundred anyways and yes Lou cut me real deal, his end was only 1%.
Thanks again Lou

#195 Daisy Mae on 02.19.13 at 9:04 pm

#98Smoking Man’s Old Man: “There is a fourth deity, being happily single.”

******************

Haven’t been following this thread…but, yes. There is ALOT to be said for freedom and independence. :-)

#196 TurnerNation on 02.19.13 at 10:51 pm

I said parabolic not half-a-parabola. It has two sides.
:-0

#197 bigrider on 02.19.13 at 11:05 pm

Alex #198.

If you are renting on Maryvale now, (depending how much of course) then you are doing real fine. I know at least three owners on the street personally.

Roosevelt nothing to sneeze at if you lived on west side of Pearson Ave.

Can you believe the homes that have been built on Westwood ,Bryson and Maryvale? Truly the bridlepath of Richmond Hill.

#198 Snowboid on 02.19.13 at 11:34 pm

#121 afraidit allmightend on 02.19.13 at 10:33 am…

Truth Hammer, you may be correct in other US areas (but I doubt it) so here is an update from the Valley of the Sun:

This is shaping up to be the busiest we have seen it here since the spring of 2010. The stores and restaurants are packed, and cactus league spring training hasn’t even started yet. 1/2 hr waits for average restaurants – don’t talk about weekends.

Yesterday a fair in the southwest was so busy the highway traffic jam was 13 miles long at one point.

The NW valley is seeing a building boom as is the southeast. Our area of about 5000 homes has seen average increases of 35% in sales prices since we purchased in 2010. Almost 70% of current listings show 70 or less days on market – and most of the longer DOM are because of over-pricing – even with the current ‘boom’.

There are still foreclosures here, but 1/5 the number from 2009. There is no shadow inventory here (various sources including ASU).

Bottom line, the economy (from our front-line view) is improving rapidly here – much faster and better than we could imagine.

I must admit luck in our timing, both selling in Victoria (with some nudging from the Professor), and buying down south (renting in the Okanagan).

But it is a pleasant feeling knowing that when we sell, even after IRS capital gains, we will likely realize enough net to cover the costs of all our winter stays.

Kelowna? Patient as ever…

#199 Snowboid on 02.19.13 at 11:39 pm

“But it is a pleasant feeling knowing that when we sell, even after IRS capital gains, we will likely realize enough net to cover the costs of all our winter stays.”

I meant to say we not including our original purchase price and improvements we would net enough after capital gains to cover all our winter stay costs!

#200 afraidit allmightend on 02.20.13 at 10:35 am

Sory Garth..but you’re drinking the bathwater again…..what you have in Pheonix is a bunch of liars stating that their investments have increased as they pound down the booze over paper profits based on the same nonsense over averages that the liars in Canada use to manipulate the data….profits are whats left over after you sell…not what the realtor tells you the house down the block just listed for…..

I looked at a list of sales a few days ago….all properties listed in the 269….range…….that had been sold a few years ago in the high 4’s……the sales were in the 220’s to 240’s……meaning the market is still falling…..stop reading the papers and get down here…..I’ll drive you around and smarten you up…..you pay for the gas.

I was there eight days ago. — Garth

#201 Snowboid on 02.20.13 at 12:45 pm

#204 afraidit allmightend on 02.20.13 at 10:35 am…

TH, most people clearly understand what profit is, and realize that it is only on paper until one sells.

But whenever I quote values, they are not based on asking prices, but actual sales prices for comparables.

Comparables are defined as homes with the same sq footage, 2.5 car garage, similar 1/4 acre lots, and location (not backing onto busy streets).

I thought you were in Texas, anyway?

#202 Tony on 02.20.13 at 1:05 pm

Re: #58 It’s different here (Calgary) on 02.18.13 at 9:57 pm

All i see on mls is reduced prices, foreclosures and expired listings.

#203 Stomper on 02.21.13 at 2:20 am

You guys seem to be one step ahead of us (Australia) in the great bubble deflation – race you to the bottom!