Bend and extend

Let’s visit that whacked-out part of the nation where demented separatists spend their days trying to get the Canadian flag out of the provincial capital. I mean, what else does the Parti Quebecois have to worry about? The provincial and federal debt load there is only 90% of the economy, which reminds us of a country that starts with ‘S’ and rhymes with ‘pain.’

So here’s Jean, with his question:

Love the blog. Please keep up the good work. My wife and I purchased our home in Montreal a little over 7 years ago for $460k.  We were able to put about half down and have an outstanding mortgage of about $180k at a rate of 4.4% locked in for the next 3 years.  We also have about $100k in liquid assets (in TSFA and “high interest” savings account).  The house suits our current needs and we plan to stay for the long term (call us crazy if you like).  The fact that interest rates will likely be higher by the time we renegotiate has me thinking about ways to lock in at today’s historically low rates.  I was wondering if there is some strategy similar to that you described in a recent blog that would allow us to convert some of our 4.4% 3 year mortgage to a 3% 5 year mortgage?  That is could we use the 100k to pay down some of the mortgage then borrow another $100k to repurchase our assets?  The mechanics seem doable but does that really do anything for me? I hope you can find the time to answer some day.  Merci.

This is a good one. There are tens of thousands of borrowers who have loaded up on cheapo rates over the last couple of years and know damn well the same deal will not be there upon renewal. Exactly when the cost of money starts to rise is unknown, but I think we’re not far off.

No, the Bank of Canada does not need to move one cadaverous, patrician little finger in order for mortgages to swell. The bond market can do that all on its own, which could start once this fiscal cliff nonsense is behind us. All it takes is the widespread realization stock markets have good days ahead of them for a torrent of cash to rush out of fixed income (where rates are pathetic) and into dividend-spewers.

After all, the S&P is ahead so far in 2012 by more than 12%. A conservative portfolio, for example, of 40% fixed income (various bonds, preferreds) and 60% growth (REITs, ETFs, no stocks) is ahead smartly. And just looking at this week’s Canadian bank profits and US real estate market you can see what’s coming once the American federal peckerettes stand down.

So what? So money exiting bonds for equities means lower bond prices and higher yields. Interest rates go up. Since banks source mortgages here, they pop too. All of a sudden we have tighter credit restrictions, thanks to F, plus less mortgage insurance, beefed-up bank regs, no 100% financing or coverage for million-dollar homes, as well as more expensive home loans. This is why you want to be an investor in balanced, liquid portfolios in 2013, not bungalows or toxic condos.

But back to Jean. He’s right. Rates absolutely will be higher  – maybe a lot – when he comes to renew in three years. So, what to do? There are a couple of options.

First, he can approach his lender and ask to blend-and-extend. For a (usually) small fee, he can break his existing mortgage into a couple of hunks, the first being from inception to the day of blending, and the second extending out for five more years at the current rate. This means, in effect, he’s averaging down the rate paid over the future period, and buying a few more years of cheap money.

If you’re some kind of dweeb aroused at the sight of formulas, hold on to something. Here is how to calculate the blended rate:

New interest rate =
(A x B) + [(C x (D – B)]
___________________
D

A is Jean’s existing rate; B is the time left on his term in months; C is the new current rate; and D is the new extended term, in months. Or, you can let the kid at the bank with “Loans Officer” on his business card figure it out.

How about using his savings? Sure, he could dump the $100,000 against the mortgage (although it’s doubtful this would be allowed unless the loan is open), then use a HELOC to borrow back the money. If he invested the proceeds, the interest would be deductible from taxes. Sort of. Any money put into the TFSA would not qualify for deductibility, plus if the rest were put back in a high-yield savings account, Jean would deserve to be coated in poutine and fed to Gallic fire ants. The interest on the ‘investment’ would be less than the cost of the loan, and disallowed as a deduction. So, dump that.

Better to invest the hundred grand in assets that actually make money and see it grow to $125,000 or so by the time the mortgage is up. Then it could be used to retire most of the debt, eliminating the fear of higher rates. However, why would Jean want to take 100% of his net worth and put it into his house, especially in a province run by Disney characters?

That might only work if he borrowed back half the value of the home at prime, put it in a stable and diversified portfolio, then wrote off all the cost on interest-only payments. Suddenly he’d have a house, liquid assets, plus a fully-deductible mortgage.

Or, he could move to Cornwall, commute and wait for Montreal to fry.

Trust me. It will.

139 comments ↓

#1 Nodebt on 12.06.12 at 9:56 pm

Firsssst baby!!

#2 claudius emperor on 12.06.12 at 9:57 pm

$pain

#3 Aleksey on 12.06.12 at 9:59 pm

Seems like a guy on the picture tries to get lost all the time. I can see why =)

#4 Thomas on 12.06.12 at 10:02 pm

Hey Garth, did you hear the latest from the BoC? What is it, a week since Carney announced he’s ditching us, and he’s now “worried” about the condo market? What a hack!

#5 Harold Hemberger on 12.06.12 at 10:04 pm

no comment

#6 Blais on 12.06.12 at 10:05 pm

Montreal will fry !
To me all signs are there : housing price increase vs rent increase, property being re listed many time, high level of debt, housing price increase vs salary progress, speculation, etc. The condo market is crazy : why would you pay 350 000$ for a small 4 1/2???? Who can afford that in a land (Quebanana) where salary are one of the lowest in Canada!

#7 Smoking Man on 12.06.12 at 10:05 pm

Go to yesterday’s posts. I am. So shit faced over and out

I don’t care about real estate Becky is all that matters

Going Roger waters tunes by. Bubble Heads
Can’t. Movs

#8 Chickenlittle on 12.06.12 at 10:06 pm

I think you know what you’re doing!

#9 Chickenlittle on 12.06.12 at 10:08 pm

Need a laugh? Watch Gilbert Gottfried read 50 Shades of Grey….He should do more audio books…. This blog would sound better if Gilbert G did it live…

#10 Barry Lainof on 12.06.12 at 10:10 pm

I’m a bit confused Mr. Turner. If you have no stocks, what are your ETF’s based on ? Are they bond ETFs or derivative based ETFs or are they in fact indexes based on the stock market ?

Baskets of equities, in careful weightings. No individual issues. — Garth

#11 Don't read his post on 12.06.12 at 10:11 pm

SMOKING MAN……..

DELETED

#12 Hoof - Hearted on 12.06.12 at 10:13 pm

I slid into 2nd on a steal…..ajhahahhahahaha

#13 habbit on 12.06.12 at 10:13 pm

Another great post Garth. When might we see your next book. Was thinking of Christmas gifts for a few greater fools I know. LOL

#14 Smoking Man on 12.06.12 at 10:23 pm

? 13 Great post Garth. SUcks ups

#15 Tron on 12.06.12 at 10:29 pm

‘especially in a province run by Disney characters’…nice.

#16 Nemesis on 12.06.12 at 10:31 pm

Never mind the REFI math, OldPol… I really think you need to see this…

Dogs driving cars*. I s**t you not.

http://tinyurl.com/c35al9y

Just this once, I wanted to ‘best’ Nostra with something really OffTheGrid…

* It had also occurred to me that, following this development, need a man ever invite a woman on a road trip again?

#17 MC on 12.06.12 at 10:34 pm

participation levels are near record lows on the S&P. But once consumer confidence and faith in the stock market picks ups hopefully we can see a nice sustained rally that is not stimulus or QE induced. 2x or 3x etf bull in the S&P anyone???

#18 Chickenlittle on 12.06.12 at 10:38 pm

Smoking Man: When did you start contributing *cough* to this blog? Just curious…

#19 Francis on 12.06.12 at 10:40 pm

Could you please advise your readers where all the money from overpriced units ended up.

Bought price less the build price would seem to indicate the builders consistantly made between 75 – 85% profit.

Beginning in 2006, there is a smell of conspiracy between the Fed, Banks, BOC, builders and Realtors ! So who all got the money ?

#20 Montrealer on 12.06.12 at 10:49 pm

“especially in a province run by Disney characters?” ahaha good one.

Quebec is quite pathetic these days with the PQ at the helm… At least they are minority and have only 32% “support” (mostly students and separatists).. 2/3 of us did not vote for them!

#21 Adam on 12.06.12 at 10:52 pm

bond prices are way too high to maintain these low rates. But the fed may have more ways of keeping the front end flat for some time. The risk on trades will keep on gaining momentum, once the back door revival takes place in the bond market watch for the PM’s to run up. Herd mentality.

#22 Guy on 12.06.12 at 11:03 pm

Smoking Man are you shitfaced again at Seneca, let the good times roll!
Slots are Ok when you are drunk, no thinking just feed em$$$$$,
I think I just walked past you near the bar where the band plays ! Yep that’s you.

#23 Vangrrl on 12.06.12 at 11:09 pm

Nemesis:
Funny you should mention the dog that drives, I saw that story today and thought “Wow, now there really is very little need for a guy in your life if the dog can drive while you kick back and read one of Garth’s books”…

#24 Mark on 12.06.12 at 11:10 pm

REITs are overpriced crap, and they bear a high degree of long-term correlation to residential real estate (despite claims to the contrary). Even Loblaws realizes that REITs are a way to achieve a much higher valuation than a business ordinarily would achieve, and are spinning out the Loblaws RE assets into a REIT.

Trust me, you do not want to be the buyer of this crap. It will go down just like residential RE.

REITs do not buy houses. You haven’t a clue. — Garth

#25 TurnerNation on 12.06.12 at 11:22 pm

Volumes, sagging. We’ll all miss the former Alpha Exchange’s epic, annual Xmas bashes.

“The TMX Group has released its November trading statistics; volume is down everywhere. The TSX handled 6.5 billion shares last month, down 18 per cent from the 7.9 billion it handled last year. The TSX-V traded 3.4 billion shares, down from 3.7 billion in November, 2011. The TMX’s new addition, however, did worst. Alpha’s volume dropped to 2.5 billion shares last month, down 31 per cent from the 3.7 billion it handled in November, 2011.”

“Earlier this week newsletter writer John Kaiser discussed, in a long essay, this year’s weak financing conditions, noting the paltry $3.4-billion TSX-V listings raised to Oct. 31. He says this is the lowest amount since 2004, when TSX-V listings raised $3.7-billion”.

Wealtors: a nasty cwash!

#26 kreditanstalt on 12.06.12 at 11:26 pm

The fact that so many home”owners” are now obsessed with this kind of financial jiggery-pokery and manipulative legerdemain shows they should never have signed on the dotted line in the first place.

All these housing bulls are just one lost job from pauperization.

#27 Dr. WAYNE on 12.06.12 at 11:30 pm

#1 Nodebt on 12.06.12 at 9:56 pm

Firsssst baby!!

No … you are not the ‘First baby’ … you are the first a$$hole ‘grown man’ whose life’s journey is now complete … now you can revel in you massive accomplishment !!

#28 DC on 12.06.12 at 11:30 pm

A bit off topic, but I got a silly quebec real estate question.

What is a 1 1/2, 2 1/2 or 3 1/2? I have only seen it in real estate ads in quebec, specifically ones written in french.

Thanks

#29 grasshopper on 12.06.12 at 11:36 pm

I expect this is completely unrelated, but how do the banks make so much money?

(I maintain a minimum balance and don’t pay the excessive service charge.)

Was it TD that announced it made $1.6 BILLION (that’s one thousand, six hundred million) PROFIT in the last quarter?

Is there jeopardy for the banks going forward? As people are unable or unwilling to pay their mortgage, I would suspect the banks would be in trouble.

However, I understand that it is not the banks in trouble, rather the CMHC (and the taxpayers) on the hook.

I do not understand how the banks make so much profit. (It must be the bank employees that drive by me on the 401 in those shiny new BMWs).

Please elighten me, Sensei.

#30 AK on 12.06.12 at 11:42 pm

#21 Adam
“bond prices are way too high to maintain these low rates. But the fed may have more ways of keeping the front end flat for some time. The risk on trades will keep on gaining momentum, once the back door revival takes place in the bond market watch for the PM’s to run up. Herd mentality.”

The Fed has the ability to keep short term rates low. Does not have control over long rates though.

#31 Andrew on 12.06.12 at 11:42 pm

@ #24 RE: REITs

Garth – I would be curious to see why you think REITs are worth investing in at this point. To my mind real estate generally has had quite the run-up, albeit perhaps less drastically than SFH and condo, but I can’t see a case where simple residential RE drops w/o knock-down effects on apartment, commercial, and industrial valuations (and yields, vacancies, etc). I don’t see REITs as a safe investment given the stormclouds on the horizon. Would appreciate a summary of your thinking on this. Cheers!

REITs do not buy houses. Residential REITs do very well during housing declines, for obvious reasons. And good commercial REITs have long-term low-cost financing in place, plus ownership of marquee properties with excellent cash flow that will be totally unaffected by a 15% or 20% decline in housing values. Your comments are unstudied. — Garth

#32 Stu on 12.06.12 at 11:46 pm

Garth you are too much by the text book, thats why they gave you the boot. If rates go up either here or in the US, what will happen to our economies- dooms day. The entire consumer system sbuilt on debt and the govnts of the world only want to debase their currency ( of course Garth Mark Carney or Ben Boy or anyone else who steps in will never say that publically)

They only way they know how to fight debt is pay it off with more printed money. If that stops and our creditors know that our economies cannot create enough tax revenue to pay them back, there will be massive bonds sold off, effectively ruining our dollars.

No no Garth, you try hard, but now that the presses are on they cannot stop. And if they stop, it will be when the US have a new currency after a great war.

Oh yeah Garth, I guess US history is not fraught with war and violence. A big one is coming soon. We will just bide time for another 4 yrs of Obama nomics (that wont last) and the military industrial complex will once again be fed.

I suggest you learn how the bond market works. — Garth

#33 AK on 12.06.12 at 11:47 pm

#24 Mark

“REITs are overpriced crap, and they bear a high degree of long-term correlation to residential real estate (despite claims to the contrary). ”

Please explain how you arived to your analogy?

#34 West Side Survivor on 12.06.12 at 11:53 pm

As it looks like the slide down is starting here on the west side of Vancouver. (Dunbar/Point Grey) what is the typical pattern, if any?
And is it something that gains momentum like a landslide or is it a slow grind downwards?
I was lucky to sell 16 months ago and am now happily renting.

#35 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 12.06.12 at 11:54 pm

Smoking Man IQ test:

Q: What is the difference between a Rooster and a Lawyer?

A: The Rooster Clucks Defiance….

#36 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 12.06.12 at 11:58 pm

Sensible advise in this post. Sometimes this blog and it’s comments are too house centric that people don’t get diversification. Including moi.
My main mistake having been to not look out for good investmentsvehicles, other than “concrete gold” (real estate).

But it is never too late.

#37 Freedom First on 12.07.12 at 12:06 am

Garth, I am very conservative myself. You have helped me widen my knowledge base with your blog, given me past advice on my question when asked, which I acted on, so thank you again.

I am very liquid, debt free, follow your formula for diversification, which I happened to be very close to before I started reading you. But I tweaked it to be dead on the formula, and it feels more comfortable. My, R.E.I.T. ETF is equal weighted, as I feel the same as you do…..never know when ENRON or a RIM job will appear. I have various Bonds like you do, including Real Return ones, and my ETF’s are also weighted within them. I get dividends on my ETF’s….of course:)

I have a question, if you answer, thank you……if you don’t, cool, you are a busy guy…..helping many people:)……My TFSA for 2013 is already spoken for, but I need to add to my fixed income soon. I am thinking of filling my 2014 ETF with “CPD/tsx”a preferred shares ETF. Do you think I would be wise to wait and watch, or purchase now? Garth, I am very grateful, with what is going on in the world, and with reading your blog about the shit some people are in, that I have what are called quality problems. Here SM……….great blog Garth…..truly:)

All fixed income prices will decline if equities advance. That suggests waiting. — Garth

#38 palebird on 12.07.12 at 12:15 am

#28

1/2 is a washroom and the 3 or 4 or 5 is the number of other rooms. 3 1/2 is a one bedroom apartment with kitchen and living area and one washroom.

#39 Devore on 12.07.12 at 12:21 am

#19 Francis

Could you please advise your readers where all the money from overpriced units ended up.

Not sure I understand the question. The money from overpriced unit sales ended up in other overpriced units. People sell houses to each other. That’s why rising house prices are not good, as on an average basis we don’t get any richer, just accumulate more debt.

Eventually the money ends up in the economy, so it is stimulative. But it’s debt, and needs to be repaid with interest. All debt can be stimulative, because you borrow money from the future, and make it available today. The problem is if the stimulation does not result in real growth, you are making yourself poorer in the future when you need to pay the debt off with interest.

The only good debt is one where the borrowed money is used to generate growth which can finance the loan and pay it off over time. Everything else is bad debt, no matter how you try to spin or explain it, in the long run you are poorer. Period.

So who ends up with the money? We all do (because we sell houses to each other). If I sell my house to you, I will buy another house from someone else or provide income to someone else (have to live somewhere). Your debt becomes my pile of money. It’s all cancelled out. Except we now carry debt, to be paid off with interest out of future productivity. And because houses are necessities, places to live in, they are not productive if they cost more than rent.

While debt makes everyone look rich, that is only until it needs to be paid off with real money. Then the crunch comes.

Of course, this is on average. Individually, there will be winners and losers. This is how investors make money, even in a flat or declining market there are opportunities to make money. The losers are individual debt holders who end up shoveling money into banks for decades, who conceded their future incomes at the dotted line. Those who bought high and cannot sell even higher. Those who are paying more for shelter than it’s really worth (rent).

#40 Brew on 12.07.12 at 12:29 am

@35 Grim

” Smoking Man IQ test:

DELETED

#41 meslippery on 12.07.12 at 12:29 am

Is the company that will supply marijuana to Washington
state be a public company?
Me thinks there must be a way to profit here.
Maybe hotel,tourism ?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/washington-state-lights-up-as-marijuana-officially-legalized/article6029908/

#42 Devore on 12.07.12 at 12:32 am

#25 Stu

They only way they know how to fight debt is pay it off with more printed money.

Really? Then how come no one has been able to successfully do this yet? Why everyone who has tried this is now a historical footnote?

Maybe you need to go back to the drawing board and think this scenario through more than just one step ahead. Nothing happens in a vacuum, and actions have consequences.

#43 Jeff on 12.07.12 at 12:38 am

Wow a post dedicated to Quebec :)

We have the highest debt in Canada.
We have the highest tax in Canada.
Our government and cities are corrupted.

Quebec’s debt is comparable to Spain before Europe crisis. We’ve been lucky until now but we will not escape the next recesssion.

#44 Dodged-a-Bullit-in-Alberta on 12.07.12 at 1:06 am

Greetings: I have a question about REITS. Was in Calgary recently and drove by a huge, huge, Rona store that has been closed down. I was in that store this past summer. It was built not too many years ago, in new sub-division. Impossible to believe someone would rent or buy this building, and land as it is in a residential area. The heating, taxes, insurance, etc., must be large on a daily basis. I saw a Rio- Can sign on part of the shopping center, massive complex, 4 city blocks. Has almost every store, resturant one can imagine. If this shut down building was owned by a REIT, what would happen to it? There is a Home Depot not far away.

#45 Ralph Cramdown on 12.07.12 at 1:08 am

#43 Jeff — Quebec’s debt is comparable to Spain before Europe crisis.

You wish. Spain’s Debt/GDP bottomed out at 36% in 2008 (they were running surpluses) and even now is only at 69%.

#46 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 12.07.12 at 1:19 am

We have no use for Quebec..the parasite follows the host…Oui Garcon

All we need is a quasi “Danzig corridor” to connect to that watchamacallit Frontier area to the East of Poutine-land….maybe 60 ft/23 meters wide?

Then again…
(i)what happened to the Berlin Wall..is it still available on E- Bay…?
(ii) what does Fed-Ex charge to ship it to Manitoba’s Eastern Border ?

Only possible’ way to save Conned- Federation

#47 Freedom First on 12.07.12 at 1:34 am

#37 Freedom First

Garth, thank you for your input. I value it big time. I think the exact same thing, and now I can r.i.p. :)…. …….thanks! …….an unbiased valued 2nd opinion is always a good check.

#48 Mr Buyer on 12.07.12 at 1:39 am

coated in poutine and fed to Gallic fire ants
……………………………………
Gallic fire ants. Nice touch
As for poutine well I haven’t had a poutine in a long long time and I am looking forward to slamming one down but only one more.

#49 kansai92 on 12.07.12 at 1:50 am

Seeing a lot of condo listings where a unit comes up for sale and doesn’t sell.
Then another unit with the same floor plan in the same building but higher floor gets listed a few months later and the price is tens of thousands lower.
Must suck for the first seller!

#50 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.12 at 1:58 am


#16 Nemesis — “Just this once, I wanted to ‘best’ Nostra with something really OffTheGrid…”

Congrats! You have indeed bested me! As such, you are now so far out of the ballpark it ain’t even funny!
*
The Fiscal Cliff Hoax Easy way for govts. to introduce carbon and other taxes, I guess, like the true sheeple we really are, we’ll just accept it, pay more and let the rich get richer off our backs but Think again; Apple SMan, you’re right. I recall a few weeks ago you said short Apple, and you’re correct along with Apple Bringing some production home? Insider Info. Banks ripping people off (big surprise); Frozen Xmas Pudding It will go well with all the rate hikes the Brits. have had in utilities recently, and Tax Bombshell; Sweden and Estonia Tax cuts helped stimulate jobs but in the UK, the cuts didn’t work and austerity still reigns supreme; Planned layoffs rise for third month, just before ObombaCare comes in; Capitalism vs. Communism First one is good for leaders, second is good for zombies. Obomba is taking sheeple down the zombie path.

Small Bus. Owners Would ObombaCare have a part to play in this? You bet yer ass! rench Unemployment These are official figures FWIW; The Trumpmeister has been trumped; US begins new era of austerity; National Debt Evidently, the US isn’t as broke as was previously thought.
*
One pic shows easy steps of how an EMP works; Crocodile Dundee Escape from Jaws; Eating Wine Ice cream needs new flavors; Life in the Sewer Lane Gotta live somewhere; Road to Nowhere has been found, but there is light at the end of the tunnel; Colombia Figured Columbia and the US were allies. Guess I’m wrong; Climate Change More hogwash; Bullet Train Beijing to Shanghai.

#51 Realist on 12.07.12 at 2:22 am

>>the widespread realization stock markets have good days ahead of them

You are confusing the word ‘realization’ with ‘myth’.

As ever, your naive understanding of markets and economics is leading to bad decisions and (worse) bad advice. But then you can only make money from your punters if they believe that stocks are going up, so you’re not likely to invest much energy in a a deeper analysis…

#52 mortgate rates higher? on 12.07.12 at 2:26 am

I dont understand why mortgage rates will be going higher in three years Garth, if the biggest risk and issue will be real estate. The BOC like the fed in the states did, will be keeping as many people in their home and therefore keeping rates at 0 to lower costs of ownership as much as possible. Increasing the rate will increase the cost of ownership…

Sigh. — Garth

#53 Canuck Abroad on 12.07.12 at 3:37 am

Except in Spain, you are not assaulted by transit employees if you can’t speak Spanish.

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/melee-in-the-metro-passenger-attacked-after-demanding-service-in-english-1.1018230

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/25/matt-gurney-problems-at-montreals-metro-make-the-ttc-look-good/

Bonus: try calling customer service and selecting 8 for English. LOL

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/Letter+Press+English+sort/7655369/story.html

#54 Tony on 12.07.12 at 4:28 am

Re: #24 Mark on 12.06.12 at 11:10 pm

You’re one of the very few that knows exactly what’s going on. Also rates in Canada will be lower in three years’ time not higher. All variables i see point to much lower stock markets worldwide for the foreseeable future.

#55 Buy? Curious? on 12.07.12 at 4:31 am

Ok people. I don’t like Quebec and have promised myself I will never step foot in that province. It is, by far, the most corrupt place in North America which includes Chicago New Orleans and Baltimore. Like with “What happens in Vegas…” What happens in Quebec should stay in Quebec. Well, except for the babes and bagels.

I will post a video tomorrow called CREAGGEADON 2013. I’m just trying to decide on the music to accompany CREA’s predictions for 2013. I was thinking Aerosmith’s “I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing” or 50 Cent’s “In Da Club”. Suggestions welcomed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LH_y159sg

#56 PoorgEoisie on 12.07.12 at 4:43 am

#43 Jeff, after nearly 2 years in Toronto where in my opinion the food selection is top notch (I love Indian food) I will be jumping on any chance to get to MTL or Quebec city here’s why:
Toronto can’t drive for sh$t! I know people drive crazy in MTL but mon dit, at least they are trying to get somewhere. Toronto is a never ending sea of people crashing into one another at 25 km/hr. I been in rush hour on the 40or 20 (mtl)and people are doing 60 ten feet apart. Everybody there knows if one person screws up everyone is knee deep in the tabarnoodle. That is why all our race car drivers and goalies are from Quebec, if you can survive until 21 then your reflexes are good and you have some kind of idea of what teamwork means. Political corruption is not unique to Quebec but it is highlighted because the people are watching and will actually do something about it.
For a couple 100k off the price of a house: je peut apprende. Might not survive the way to work but if I do, I will be on time!

#57 Canuck Abroad on 12.07.12 at 4:46 am

Coming soon to the Toronto condo market…

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/12/thurs-post-2-holy-asset-depreciation.html

#58 Canuck Abroad on 12.07.12 at 5:14 am

Garth: Smell that? You smell that?
Property Virgin: What?
Garth: Napalm, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that.
[kneels]
Garth: I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one of ’em, not one stinkin’ dink body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole hill. Smelled like
[sniffing, pondering]
Garth: victory. Someday this war’s gonna end…
[suddenly walks off]

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/12/04/the-weekly-drop-december-3-2012/

#59 The real Kip on 12.07.12 at 6:45 am

Wow, Rita is smokin hot eh?

#60 maxx on 12.07.12 at 8:02 am

#26 kreditanstalt on 12.06.12 at 11:26 pm

Excellent post……and many, one paycheck from that slippery slope.

Not only do they need to reverse their debt spiral, they then need to acquire and save real money to fund their futures. Major double whammy.
Curiously, my sympathies are directly proportional to the level at which interest rates are kept.

#61 AK on 12.07.12 at 8:32 am

#54 Tony

“Also rates in Canada will be lower in three years’ time not higher. All variables i see point to much lower stock markets worldwide for the foreseeable future.”

The S&P 500 is currently trading @ 14X – 2013 earnings. The norm is 17X.

Also, The U.S. reindustrialization is in full force.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2012/11/346_109925.html

IMO, you will be wrong with your predictions.

#62 Victor V on 12.07.12 at 8:41 am

Attention boomers: Why demographics threatens your retirement

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/12/03/attention-boomers-why-demographics-threatens-your-retirement/

One of the more worrying aspects of population aging is its effect on the prices of assets that many people are counting on to support them in retirement. For example, many Canadians may be planning to sell their house when they retire, buy a less-expensive condo and deposit the difference. The problem is that if a large wave of people retire and execute this strategy at the same time, the flood of new supply on the housing market will depress prices, thus reducing the value of the housing assets that were supposed to finance their retirements.

The run-up in housing prices over the past decade has attracted a lot of attention in this regard and led to worries that Canadian households’ balance sheets might be over-weighted on housing. But it turns out that much of the surge in the 2000s can be seen as a recovery from what was a very dismal market in the 1990s (see also this WCI post). Housing’s share of household assets did increase sharply during the 2000s, but this ratio still hasn’t recovered pre-1990 levels and remains below what it was in the 1970s.

#63 Aussie Roy on 12.07.12 at 8:50 am

Aussie Update

Australian Gina Rinehart, the richest woman in the world, has over the past few years become concerned about the direction of Australia according to her latest article in the Australian Resources & Investment Magazine.

“It goes back to something Australian’s used to understand well: almost every home understood that you had to earn revenue before you could spend it.”

Rinehart said we need to start living within our means. “It may not be popular, but we need to get back to these basic understandings.”

Rinehart also warns of the dangers of excessive household and government debt.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/dont-overspend-rinehart-recommends-20121206-2ax16.html

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2012/12/we-need-to-live-within-our-means-rinehart/

Pool of greater debt fools gets smaller

FORGET trees. The biggest concern for the next generation is finding a job to support their families.

The economy has overtaken the environment as the most pressing concern for the young, according to a survey of 15,000 people aged 15 to 19.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/what-young-people-fear-most–and-its-not-the-environment-20121204-2atc5.html

#64 Victor V on 12.07.12 at 8:58 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/bank-of-canada-issues-harsh-warning-on-condo-market/article6022625/

“If investor demand has helped spur levels of construction in the condominium market that are above those consistent with demographics, this market will be more susceptible to changes in buyer sentiment,” it said.

“If the upcoming supply of units is not absorbed by demand as they are completed over the next 18 to 36 months, the supply-demand imbalance will become more pronounced, increasing the risk of a sudden correction in prices”

==============================

2013-2014 will be tough years for condo ‘investors’.

#65 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 12.07.12 at 9:02 am

mortgate rates higher? on 12.07.12 at 2:26 am
I dont understand why mortgage rates will be going higher in three years Garth, if the biggest risk and issue will be real estate. The BOC like the fed in the states did, will be keeping as many people in their home and therefore keeping rates at 0 to lower costs of ownership as much as possible. Increasing the rate will increase the cost of ownership…

Sigh. — Garth
—————————————————————–

Poor poor garth trying to educate out of work and soon to be bankrupt realtors about the BOND MARKET. How many times does garth have to explain it to you.

Garth said “money exiting bonds for equities means lower bond prices and higher yields. Interest rates go up. Since banks source mortgages here, they pop too.”

Do you stupid realtors understand now? How else would you like him to explain it? How many stupid people got a mortgage or became a realtor when they shouldn’t qualify for a job at macdonalds? That’s what make Canada’s housing bubble so dangerous.

#66 Beach Girl on 12.07.12 at 9:04 am

So the teachers are striking. Don’t care at all. Who in their right mind would address shitty drugged out teenagers, or green snotty small people. I would puke or kill someone. Jesus, you went to school to do that. Losers.

Unfortunately, I do not see see how the young people of today are going to pay my pension. I am taking their rent right now.

Justin Trudeau, a teacher, politician? Is this the best the Liberals can do. OMG. The young man looks demented.

On a much lighter note, we put up our Griswald tree and put in a fake hedgehog in it. We called him Jeremy.

#67 Beach Girl on 12.07.12 at 9:05 am

Glorified babysitters. Come on.

#68 Beach Girl on 12.07.12 at 9:56 am

Reading the Toronto Star. Why?

Apparently, these zookeepers out there can’t tell if the bear is male or female. I guess these people went to school. What is going on?

#69 Ret on 12.07.12 at 10:13 am

So Jean’s choices are Montreal or Cornwall? What kind of choices are those? He’ll need professional help if that’s all he has to look forward to.

We have to give Jean some hope.

#70 Sometimes Lucky on 12.07.12 at 10:16 am

Something from teachers point of view
http://biggeekdad.com/2012/06/national-teachers-day/

#71 Aussie Roy on 12.07.12 at 10:20 am

#16Nemesis
on 12.06.12 at 10:31 pm

Never mind the REFI math, OldPol… I really think you need to see this…

Dogs driving cars*. I s**t you not.

http://tinyurl.com/c35al9y

………………………………………………………………………….

SSSSSHHHH

A little secret, my Kiwi cousins have run out of greaterfools to keep their house price bubble going.

Together with the Aussie banks who have financed the bubble they hope the dogs can gain employment and be granted large mortgages.

What’s next?, computer literate rats teamed with call centre trained cockatoos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoS8JuaDV1A&feature=player_embedded

Wait till you see the animal they are training to be realtors – lol….

#72 hangfire on 12.07.12 at 10:34 am

Lies, damned lies…and statistics.

“”Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, professional and business services, and health care.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent in November. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.0 million, changed little. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.2 percent), adult women (7.0 percent), teenagers (23.5 percent), whites (6.8 percent), and Hispanics (10.0 percent) showed little or no change in November. The unemployment rate for blacks (13.2 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million in November. These individuals accounted for 40.1 percent of the unemployed. ”

OK, how the hell did things improve so much, given that employment data from ADP and Challenger this week didn’t seem to indicate this much of an upside?

Well, one way to jigger the number up would be to reduce the number of total people “in the workforce”. As we see in the data here, 350-thousand people decided in November that they were no longer part of the workforce which, pardon me, has a male bovine excrement odor to it. WFT happened to 350-thousand workers?

What’s more, when you drill down further into the data here, you see that the total number of people working in America actually DROPPED 122,000 workers. True, the number of workers receiving unemployment dropped by 229,000 but remember, just because they run out of benefits doesn’t mean they left the workforce.

To be sure, the CES Birth/Death Model which has been used to “estimate jobs into existence” showed a drop of 29-thousand for the month.”

#73 Nodebt on 12.07.12 at 10:44 am

#67 beachgirl,
R u hot?

Don’t go there. She is alpha. — Garth

#74 Aussie Roy on 12.07.12 at 11:01 am

Get Govt’s out of housing

The U.S. National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index jumped to 46 on Monday, its highest level since May 2006, just before the peak in house prices. In Britain, especially in southeast Britain, house prices remain inordinately high in terms of wages, rents and purchasing power. In the United States house prices are subsidized by innumerable tax and other benefits, including an effective government guarantee of most home mortgages. In both countries, house prices are subsidized by interest rates that have been inordinately low for over four years. In both countries, government budget deficits threaten the stability of the financial system and the economy generally.

Overall, it’s time to put housing policy into reverse and to reclaim some of the subsidies from the housing sector.

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10732

#75 Toronto_CA on 12.07.12 at 11:02 am

The Canada job numbers look good at first glance, but from one economist:

“Now for the concerns, and there are two of them. First, hours worked were dead flat in November at 0% m/m. It’s hours worked that drive incomes, not the body count, and so while this won’t matter to markets on first pass it does matter to the consumer outlook. I’m a bit perplexed as to how we got a sizeable job gain and no growth in hours worked. The obvious statistical answers are either than offsetting the job growth must have been slightly fewer hours worked by the already employed, or this is simply just not a perfect survey and faces sampling problems. In fact, hours worked were not only flat last month, they fell 0.3% m/m in October after rising 0.4% m/m in September and falling 0.3% m/m in August. The trend is unfavourable in this measure of Canadian labour markets.

Second, job growth is coming at the expense of productivity growth which is the usual case for Canada given its moribund long run track record on this issue. That’s a continue negative for cycle earnings.”

So if hours worked is flat, incomes are flat even if there are more jobs? I suppose a more even distribution of wealth is good for the economy in general?

Interesting times. I’m shocked about the US job numbers, although like ours, there’s has a problem in that it’s lower from people dropping out of the game rather than finding jobs.

#76 Devore on 12.07.12 at 11:06 am

#49 kansai92

Must suck for the first seller!

Au contraire. He who panics first, panics best. Chasing a falling market down is hardly an envious position.

#77 Eaglebay - Parksville on 12.07.12 at 11:22 am

How to spend taxpayers dollars at the Toronto and District School Board.
Political efficiency and Union competence.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1298256–tdsb-s-143-school-pencil-sharpener-just-the-beginning

#78 Hoof-Hearted on 12.07.12 at 11:23 am

#41 meslippery on 12.07.12 at 12:29 am

Is the company that will supply marijuana to Washington
state be a public company?
Me thinks there must be a way to profit here.
Maybe hotel,tourism ?
===================================

It was noted that it may be legalized by Gov’t but employers may still insist on drug tests that employees must pass or be fired.

#79 Ronaldo on 12.07.12 at 11:31 am

U.S. Debt visualized in $100 dollar bills. Mindboggling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTBODoBaCns

Does anyone do a similar graphic for the size of the US economy? Didn’t think so. — Garth

#80 pjwlk on 12.07.12 at 11:51 am

#27 Dr. WAYNE on 12.06.12 at 11:30 pm
“No … you are not the ‘First baby’ …”

As one man of few words to another… Keep up the good work Doctor! I love it!

#81 Eaglebay - Parksville on 12.07.12 at 11:56 am

73 hangfire on 12.07.12 at 10:34 am

Do you realize that 10,000 people a day in the US, 1,000 in Canada, retire everyday.
Do you blow?

#82 Herb on 12.07.12 at 11:56 am

Another sign of the real estate times. Press release from the Quinte Real estate Board: http://www.quinterealestate.ca/content.php?id=3055

This is the first admission that things are not the way they used to be in the two years we’ve been following that market for possible relocation.

#83 dddd on 12.07.12 at 12:04 pm

#41 meslippery on 12.07.12 at 12:29 am

Is the company that will supply marijuana to Washington
state be a public company?
Me thinks there must be a way to profit here.
Maybe hotel,tourism ?
================
tourism will gain for sure.

re producers – $250 for a license to grow plus 1k yr fees , there will be oodles of growers in WA

colorado will let you grow your own, as it should be. i suspect WA will have to allow it in the future.

employers will be testing for anyone who has consumed alcohol 48hrs prior to work, and firing them immediately.
as it should be.

#84 Ronaldo on 12.07.12 at 12:16 pm

#19 – Francis –

”Beginning in 2006, there is a smell of conspiracy between the Fed, Banks, BOC, builders and Realtors ! So who all got the money ?”

A few months back on a flight from Edmonton, I was sitting next to a condo developer from there. I asked him what was the reason for the increase of around 67% between 2005 and 2006 on property values. His response was “Super Profits”.

Since prices of building materials was not the factor (lumber was at decades low prices), labor hadn’t increased that much. He did say that the sub trades had gotten in on the bandwagon and had started raising their prices but overall, it was “Super Profits”.

So who benefited. Certainly the developers since they pretty much controlled the price of the land they developed. Cost of lots in areas around Red Deer increased two fold and more during that time period.

The realtors certainly capitalized from the higher prices. Building suppy outfits did. The banks certainly did and continue to do so as a large percentage of the mortgages are locked in even though the price of the real estate has gone down (Alberta areas since peak in May of 2007) and they continue to cash in by collecting interest on ”fake” values. (how good is that?)

Same will happen in the major centers where house prices continued to bloat. A no-lose situation for the banks. Why not invest in them? Who else is benefiting? Certainly the cities and municipalities who have been collecting taxes on “illusionary values”. What a complete scam!!

#85 Canadian Watchdog on 12.07.12 at 12:23 pm

Ever wonder why stocks move up on bad news, good news and sometimes no news? Wondering why stock volume is plunging? Watch the video below for a full explanation of ‘the thing’ that moves 50-60% of today’s markets.

Money and Speed: Inside The Black Box

#86 John Prine on 12.07.12 at 12:43 pm

Glad the NDP aren’t running things here in BC…

http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/7663249.bin?size=620×400

#87 An Cat Dubh on 12.07.12 at 12:58 pm

B.C. lost more jobs for the second month in a row, despite what the gov adds are saying. More pressure for declining home prices.
BTW, I was in department store and saw NHL jerseys and they were made in Bangladesh. Later that day I heard about the tragic fire there. Time to break up the NHL.

#88 kreditanstalt on 12.07.12 at 1:04 pm

“Does anyone do a similar graphic for the size of the US economy? Didn’t think so. — Garth”

The size of the US economy is not what it is purported to be. Firstly, government spending – being money stolen from the private sector, printed or borrowed – cannot by definition be “part of GDP”.

Secondly, look at what constitutes “investment income” these days. How do bank account interest, stock profits, bond coupon payments, ETFs, REITs, options trades, rental income, even retailing and God-knows-what else actually increase wealth?

They don’t. They simply move money around. They are often bets on the movement of some other index or number. But what is actually being PRODUCED, even assuming that at root actual borrowing-for-productive-purposes is occurring?

The US economy is increasingly becoming a hollow shell. If you want to measure GDP accurately, it has to be done by measuring actual productive output – and not in “dollars”.

#89 all_we_need_is_mortgage on 12.07.12 at 1:13 pm

to #39 Devore

I agree with you and only want to add that the huge corporate profit money, mentioned frequently , won’t go back to the real economy and won’t be spent for development to stimulate the growth as people simply don’t have money to pay for this… so if the government persisted in the belief that credit debt is the only way to stimulate economy what else can we see in the future except more debt and low interest rates.

#90 Contrarian_YYC on 12.07.12 at 1:19 pm

@ #55Buy? Curious?

How about ‘Drop It Like It’s Hot’ by all time superstar Snoop Dawg???

#91 panhead on 12.07.12 at 1:33 pm

#67 Beach Girl

On a much lighter note, we put up our Griswald tree and put in a fake hedgehog in it. We called him Jeremy.

Please wish Jeremy a Merry Christmas from the west coast …

#92 Mad Scientist on 12.07.12 at 1:59 pm

by my calculations – in 15 days it all won’t matter – I think on the 21st I’ll call in sick – just in case!!

Happy Mayan Calender everyone! (bottle water will be the hottest commodity around).

#93 :) :( Ying Yang on 12.07.12 at 2:07 pm

Quebec Ha, Don’t get me started…Too late, hear I go…

Had the pleasure of traveling through Montreal Airport one fine day, no problem. Rented a car no problem. Drove to see customer at plant North east of Montreal, problem!
Don’t stop in small towns and ask for gas, directions, food or anything unless you speak French. They have their language police at the plant where I visited. We could even get out a manual to help solve their problem in English. I asked one of the locals why they are like this and he said in his broken English “We don’t care if you come here and speak English but the government is afraid we are all going to lose our identity.” He then said his children all adapt and want English North American culture not singularly French only culture, as he put it the French stuff that they ram down our throats is garbage. My children and all or their friends want to leave here and go to Ontario or Alberta for jobs and to live. Well there you have it. Corrupt all the way in PQ.
http://nodogsoranglophones.blogspot.ca/2012/12/quebec-corruption-transcends-language.html?showComment=1354773423808

It’s called Canada. Suck it up. — Garth

#94 salonist on 12.07.12 at 2:24 pm

“At what age should you start to focus on your retirement?”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/finance/retirement-annuity/9678168/when-start-retirement-planning.html?WT.mc_id=605477&source=TrafficDriver

#95 Quebecer on 12.07.12 at 3:02 pm

Got to love me so good ol’ Quebec Bashing… You guys never get tired of it do you.

For the record, the PQ is a joke, but it’s not like the Liberals were doing a stellar job, eh?

I’ve lived all over Canada, and let me just say I wouldn’t live anywhere else than Montreal… At least there is some culture around here.

#96 Hoof-Hearted on 12.07.12 at 3:27 pm

Really weird out here in HAMville..Richmond BC

Some sites (Hi Rise, and low rsie multi family )have been Pre-Loaded…and ready to go for weeks. NOTHING.

Others have just finished demolition and are primed to Pre Load…

and everything in between…

It seems the big developers are proceeding..the smaller ones are waiting….till?…for?

More suspicions the economy is based on laundered money, as that is the only thing that makes sense

#97 Old Man on 12.07.12 at 3:37 pm

#95 Ying Yang – parlez vous francais? Montreal was always a fun city for me back in the early 1960’s, and was well ahead of Canada; it was a blast! It was all a matter of playing by the rules. You want to get into a nightclub at 11:00 PM with a crowd, just give the doorman $5.00. Never drive anywhere in case a cop stops you without a $20.00 bill fixed to your drivers licence, as he would always let you go. It was always a matter of knowing the rules.

#98 Buy? Curious? on 12.07.12 at 3:49 pm

Just in time for the holidays, CREAGEDDON 2013, check it out on YouTube. Remember, it’s all about, the children.

#99 Daisy Mae on 12.07.12 at 3:52 pm

#85 Ronaldo: “So who benefited? Certainly the developers, realtors, building supply outfits. The banks did, certainly the cities and municipalities who have been collecting taxes on “illusionary values”. What a complete scam!”

***************

And who made it all possible? Why, the consumer, of course!

#100 Curious... on 12.07.12 at 4:03 pm

Garth, do you speak French?

#101 Old Man on 12.07.12 at 4:05 pm

Montreal was not the only city that had its rules, as so did Toronto. The best in Toronto during the 1970’s was the Imperial Room at the Royal York Hotel. Yep about 500 seats that brought in the big stars from USA, and would go there with a young woman of choice, as she would dress up fit to kill. I never made a reservation, and when we got there the gal saw a lineup of 50 people, and said now what? I took her by the hand and walked to the front of this line of fools to the maitre’d, and believe his name was Louis. Simply slided him a $20.00 bill with discretion, and said a table for two; he always had a table near the front for customers who paid, and seated us immediately. Yes there are rules!

#102 Vamanos Pest on 12.07.12 at 4:09 pm

#66 Realtor in all out PANIC

Totally agree. In reading the rebuttals to Garth’s argument in this post, writer’s just seem to be revealing that they don’t have a clue how it works. His comment of “Sigh” was perfect, as if to say “I give up. You just don’t get it. And worse, you’re not even trying.”

(sorry for presuming to put words in your mouth Garth, but I feel for you on this one)

#103 Daisy Mae on 12.07.12 at 4:10 pm

#89An Cat Dubh: “B.C. lost more jobs for the second month in a row, despite what the gov adds are saying. More pressure for declining home prices.”

***********************

The BC government ads state: “BC is leading the way!” and “Canada starts here!”

Gawd, we’re good….

#104 all_we_need_is_mortgage on 12.07.12 at 4:29 pm

#66 mortgate rates higher? on 12.07.12 at 2:26 am

mortgage rates based on political decisions rather then on economic consideration nowadays.
US is an excellent example of this

#105 :) :( Ying Yang on 12.07.12 at 4:44 pm

DELETED

#106 randman on 12.07.12 at 4:44 pm

Garth…your “poo-pooing” of the Us debt is disturbing….

Please read and especially the last sentence ….

“The media, commentators, and politicians always talk about deficits. This whole fiscal-cliff debate centers around how to reduce the federal deficit. Should we cut government spending, raise taxes, or do both? But a deficit is merely the current shortfall, the government spending more in any given year than it takes in. The true problem lies in the past’s accumulated deficits, which collectively add up to the national debt.

Unfortunately deficits and debt are often confused in public discourse. If you spend $1000 a month more than you make, that is your deficit. The cash for this excess spending can only come from borrowing. A year of $1k monthly deficits adds up to $12k in new debt, not including interest. Merely reducing your monthly deficit does absolutely nothing for your already-existing debt, which continues right on growing.

And naturally as your debt expands, so does your interest burden. And since you are already operating at a deficit, you have to borrow even more money just to pay the interest on your existing debt. This leads to a vicious circle that spirals downwards into bankruptcy. This ironclad law of finance applies to nation states as surely as it does to families and businesses. Deficit spending ultimately leads to financial ruin.”

PS This article is not about gold

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120712.html

Worry about yourself, not the US debt. — Garth

#107 Canadian Watchdog on 12.07.12 at 4:49 pm

Canada Govt Plans “Important” Announcement at 5 PM ET; PM Harper to Speak at 5:15 – Comes Just Days Before Cnooc-Nexen Deal Deadline

Must be big news if it’s after 5:15pm when the futures market closes.

#108 :) :( Ying Yang on 12.07.12 at 4:49 pm

#94 Mad Scientist on 12.07.12 at 1:59 pm

My point exactly as I pointed out previously.
#162 :) :( Ying Yang on 12.05.12 at 4:58 pm

Come on People! why are whining about the falling real estate values and job losses.
Look on the bright side December 2012 marks the conclusion of a b’ak’tun—a time period in the “Mayan” Mesoamerican Long Count calendar or in other words the end of the earth. I wonder how the real estate market is doing in the Mayan Peninsula? Another Cerveza por favor!

#109 JohnnyBoy on 12.07.12 at 4:56 pm

#95 :) :( Ying Yang on 12.07.12 at 2:07 pm
Quebec Ha, Don’t get me started…Too late, hear I go…

My Canada includes Quebec!!!!

Minus the French stuff, minus the corruption, minus the sub standard construction on bridges and highways, minus the Hells Angels, minus Celine Dion, minus the Provincial legislature, minus….. well there is too much, but I still say My Canada includes Quebec!!!

#110 Tony on 12.07.12 at 5:24 pm

Re: #62 AK on 12.07.12 at 8:32 am

I’ll be right and you’ll be broke.

#111 Pr on 12.07.12 at 5:48 pm

#66 Realtors in an all out PANIC!

Its 100% sure you are frustrate at some one or some thing regarding the Realtors. Dont put everyone one the same boat.

#112 Quebec is Great on 12.07.12 at 5:55 pm

Quebec is an easy target for the ignorant. My opinion is that it was and will remain an essential component of the Canadian culture.

Question on a forum I visit on occasion:
“All I hear about Canada is how great it is. Canadian [readers], what’s something that you dislike about your country?”

A Reply (not from me):
As a non-separatist Quebecer, being hated by the rest of Canada for no other reason than the language I speak (according to what I read in this thread). Also, being hated by the separatists because I don’t want Quebec to become a country. Haters gonna hate.

My Reply:
I live next to you in Ontario and I love Quebec. Only after I read “Reflections of a Siamese Twin” by John Ralston Saul did I gain a newfound respect for the rich history of Canada. Canadians before me wanted a country that embraced and celebrated different cultures.It took me quite a while to get through the book and I never really felt as if anything changed in me. However, as time goes on, it seems more apparent and more obvious to me that the best part about Canada is its cultural diversity.I love all of Canada. We are richly diverse in culture, landscape and language. Without the francophones, the first nations, the metis and the anglophones (and anyone else who wants to live here) Canada would really have no identity. There is a lot to be proud of as a Canadian, just start reading some history of this great nation!So, as a Canadian living in Ontario, I’m sorry the anglo-franco situation is painful and fractured. It is an easy issue to jump-start political careers here in Canada and it is too bad really.I love visiting Montreal and I’m surprised I don’t get much flack for speaking English (sorry, don’t know French). To be honest, I really deserve to get a hard time, just as someone running around Toronto might have some difficulty if they only know French. In my experience, I find peoples of Quebec to be very accomodating even when they don’t have to be, and I am grateful for their kindness. I usually find my experience in Toronto to be less accomodating.

TL;DR Canada is awesome because of our diversity. without it we are nothing.

By the way, TL;DR means too long, didn’t read – and what follows it is a short summation for those who do not have time (or patience) to read the whole post…. perhaps a useful tool to be used on this site!

#113 CONservative sell Canada and Canadians out to CHINA on 12.07.12 at 6:02 pm

DELETED

#114 Pr on 12.07.12 at 6:02 pm

…and wait for Montreal to fry. Trust me. It will.

I try to explain to a new *owner* 20 something years old that Quebec-montreal was very cheap for a lot of years in the late 90s, but he look at me like it was ancient history and i did not know much. I left smiling and thinking: I will make you a offer in 10 years for less that what you paid for!

#115 CONservative sell Canada and Canadians out to CHINA on 12.07.12 at 6:07 pm

DELETED

#116 CONservative sell Canada and Canadians out to CHINA on 12.07.12 at 6:14 pm

Did you vote for the CONservatives? Are you a stupid ignorant SUN reading CON? YOU have voted CONservative which is a vote for a RUINED Canada. YOU STUPID CONs don’t get it. CON HATE CANADA and CANADIANS….CON like to SELL EVERYTHING…..like the 407 and if HUdak has his way will sell the LCBO and OLG and whenever else they can find to sell to their friends for pennies on the dollar.

Hate on your own time, not on this blog. — Garth

#117 Mike on 12.07.12 at 6:22 pm

Thanks for another informative post Mr Tuner.

If I may just add that:

‘Worry about yourself, not the US debt. — Garth’

is the BEST advice you have given.

Folks, there is no debt crisis. You do not have to save anyone, warn anyone, or worry about anyone, except yourself and your soul.

The world is not ending on December 21st either. It is the end of the Mayan long count calendar. On December 22 the cycle starts all over for another 5440 years or so.

I’d have to agree there is something wrong with the planet, something quite Draconian, literally, but it’s all part of creation unfolding as it is destined to.

Enjoy your life and banish fear. There is nothing to fear but fear itself.

Happy Friday.

#118 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 12.07.12 at 6:40 pm

This blog is being infittrated by Dr Waynes err “Dr W-a$$holes-ynes ” survivors.

#119 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 12.07.12 at 6:45 pm

Distinct Society….. OUI ! as long as someone else pays for it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TncdhLGjFTE

#120 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.12 at 7:20 pm

#86 Canadian Watchdog — Great links and video. Just goes to show how fragile markets are, and how easily they could be manipulated.

#103 Old Man — “The best in Toronto during the 1970′s was the Imperial Room at the Royal York Hotel.” — Yep. Worked there for a few months when I couldn’t find anything in printing. I recall Mr. Janetta and Nick — good people.

#105 Daisy Mae — “Gawd, we’re good….” — Yep. Good for nothing! Goes with #89 An Cat Dubh — “B.C. lost more jobs for the second month in a row, despite what the gov adds are saying.” There was an interesting piece on CHBC-TV Thursday evening, about a mill in Salmon Arm or somewhere in the NOkanagan.

They are so busy they want to hire more people, as they’re trying to fill orders from Asia and other parts of the world. If they had the people, they could easily run three shifts, seven days a week thruout the year.

#121 Rural Rick on 12.07.12 at 8:14 pm

Whats up with Carney? He is leaving a country that doesn’t know it is broke for one that does. Sounds like a better gig.

#122 Dr. WAYNE on 12.07.12 at 8:19 pm

#121 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator

For once you’re bang on … as long a you give them $$, Quebec is ‘happy’ … sort of.

You gotta see this about Quebec:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJdpXqQbY80

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvTjsvSIsGk

#123 Devore on 12.07.12 at 8:23 pm

#98 Hoof-Hearted

More suspicions the economy is based on laundered money, as that is the only thing that makes sense

Maybe the small ones can’t get financing? Why do people always come up with crazy conspiracies, when a simple explanation is staring them right in the face.

#124 Devore on 12.07.12 at 8:37 pm

#110 :) :( Ying Yang

Look on the bright side December 2012 marks the conclusion of a b’ak’tun—a time period in the “Mayan” Mesoamerican Long Count calendar or in other words the end of the earth.

Not the end of the world, just the end of a cycle. A new cycle will begin, like other cycles in the Mayan calendar.

Why make two identical calendars, Mayans assumed people living 2000 years in the future would be smart enough to realize this, instead of panicking about the end of time like barbarians.

#125 TurnerNation on 12.07.12 at 8:38 pm

109 Canadian Watchdog

Nexen (NXY.TO) plunged $5, suddenly, today. A bunch of too-low trades got expunged.

#126 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.12 at 8:44 pm


2:51 clip Yes, it’s true. These people exist.
*
WH and Congress Eliminating charities; The US Fed has bought something, and it ain’t debt or bonds, and QE may be 4ever, like diamonds; Interest Chart from Hades; Smith and Wesson Business booming; 47:37 doc. Greek resistance to the EU takeover; Slow Collapse of the NYTimes (No one likes a liar).
*
1:26:21 doc. Farmaggedon, or buy Monsanto’s trash instead and 43:04 doc. Monsanto in Hawaii? Billary Trying a new tactic with Russia, except the opposite is true. Give her credit — she does have a way with words and 4:24 clip dubya Pt. 2 = Obomba; Orlando Airport Rejecting TSA? 19:07 clip The carnage that Israel wrought in Gaza; Faith Healing Another death; Pirates Of The Caribbean Be a pirate and evade paying taxes! Chicago Headline alone tells a violent story; Geminid Meteor Shower or the curtain closing on the Mayan Age (Dec. 13-14); New York village bans clotheslines. Makes sense. Put the clothes into a dryer on a hot day, turn it on and make the day warmer by using more electricity; Boeing and EMPs Could shut country down permanently.

#127 Nemesis on 12.07.12 at 8:58 pm

“Does anyone do a similar graphic for the size of the US economy? Didn’t think so.” — Garth

Yes. I believe it’s called, “People of Walmart”.

#128 Daisy Mae on 12.07.12 at 9:01 pm

#108 randman: “Garth…your “poo-pooing” of the Us debt is disturbing….”

*********

Hasn’t Garth stated previously that servicing the government debt is what matters? It’ll never be paid off?

#129 TurnerNation on 12.07.12 at 9:04 pm

So Duffy is caught at the trough. What happened to the regime’s campaign promises about an effective, elected, acccountable senate. LMAO as if.
Fool me once…

#130 Daisy Mae on 12.07.12 at 9:16 pm

#119 Mike: “The world is not ending on December 21st either. It is the end of the Mayan long count calendar.”

***************

I’m surprised that people haven’t been going off the deep end as they did for Y2K….people buying generators, stock-piling food. I expected it, and it didn’t materialize. Interesting…

#131 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 12.07.12 at 9:19 pm

Australian PM says world is coming to an end…so it must be true

J.Gillard Australian PM speech : End of the World

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEP4LvUKIlk&feature=player_embedded#!

Better stock up on Fosters , Vegamite, Crocodile Dundee movies and Aussie rock bands of the 80’s CD’s

#132 Daisy Mae on 12.07.12 at 9:23 pm

#105 Daisy Mae — “Gawd, we’re good….” — Yep. Good for nothing! Goes with #89 An Cat Dubh — “B.C. lost more jobs for the second month in a row, despite what the gov adds are saying.”

*******

I was, you understand, being sarcastic? LOL

#133 Hoof-Hearted on 12.07.12 at 9:33 pm

#125 Devore on 12.07.12 at 8:23 pm

#98 Hoof-Hearted

More suspicions the economy is based on laundered money, as that is the only thing that makes sense

Maybe the small ones can’t get financing? Why do people always come up with crazy conspiracies, when a simple explanation is staring them right in the face.

====================================

Uh…no

One Hi Rise went through a lot more hoops…the OCP had to be amended to allow Hi Rises. The developer took a few years to get approval. Was approved..did the pre load..preload removed…..WTF its a duck pond now. BTW Location: SE corner of Cooney and Westminster Hwy.

You don’t go in that deep without some sort of financing to go all the way.

I actually see various signs on site fences..with the BANKS names on them….The market is the market….unless its full of dirty money.

Sorry dude..if you don’t live here and take notes…don’t poison the well with dumb comments.

#134 Westernman on 12.07.12 at 9:40 pm

Daisy Mae @ # 132
Yeah, imagine having a secondary emergency source to generate something as useless as electricity and a well stocked food supply – how ridiculous!

#135 Eaglebay - Parksville on 12.07.12 at 9:46 pm

#110 :) :( Ying Yang on 12.07.12 at 4:49 pm

How come the Mayans don’t give a $hit?
You must have a weird calendar up yours.

#136 JRance on 12.07.12 at 11:47 pm

Results of Garth’s prediction from December 2011.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/

The condo market will crumble. – Win

Vancouver will be so 2009. – Win

Mark Carey will actually do it. – Fail

Volatile markets will reward. – Fail

Europe will bore. Greece will choke. – Mostly Win

Obama will win. US real estate hits bottom. – Win and Inconclusive

House prices will fall. – Inconclusive

In fact, all asset prices will fall. – Win

F will tighten. – Win

Most people won’t get it. – ?

#137 BIGLEAFSFAN on 12.08.12 at 12:11 pm

Garth, how do these real estate agents get away with making outragous claims and promises of guaranteed returns in the 8% range by fully leveraging rental properties?
http://www.paulrushforth.com/silver_customform.asp
Where is the Ontario Securities Commission on this?
Only in Canada you say?

The OSC does not regulate real estate. Caveat sucker. — Garth

#138 Beach Girl on 12.08.12 at 2:37 pm

#67 beachgirl,
R u hot?

Don’t go there. She is alpha. — Garth

___

I am and will be hotter come January. A little bit of the cosmetic stuff.

And Garth, don’t shoot my suitors down, but you are right.

#139 NoName on 12.09.12 at 1:27 pm

Americans reading this blog please consider signing petition to increase NASA budget

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/increase-budget-nasa/JHhPNStY

list of NASA spin-off technologies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_spin-off_technologies