Desire

Aren’t you glad you didn’t buy a condo in the Big Smoke earlier this year when your parents told you to ‘invest in the future”?

Matt sure is. “I have to thank you,” he says (always a winning way to start a letter to me). “It’s not hyperbolic to say that this ‘pathetic’ blog played a role in altering the course of our financial life.”

Matt will be even happier four paragraphs from now.

“Less than a year ago my soon-to-be wife and I started to get house horny.  We were serious about starting a life together, and so naturally expected we should “invest” in a place together.  Her parents and family encouraged us, it would be retirement savings after all and they would help with the down-payment, and by buying in ever-desirable Toronto where house prices always go up, how much risk could there possibly be?

That’s when I found your blog – the literary equivalent of a cold shower.  Your insights gave me the confidence (and the ammunition) to insist we continue our modest renting lifestyle.  Thank goodness for that. Four months ago we were surprised with twins.  Yup, two unplanned babies on way.  A blessing, but a potential financial disaster if we had proceeded and stretched ourselves as thin as a Toronto mortgage would have required.

Now, we’re moving back into my folks’ empty nest (I know…. wish me luck) in happy Hamilton, to spend a year absorbing free child care services and to save every penny we can, which, we’ll be applying to a balanced portfolio.

We could have been sunk…. And despite all the dreary prognostications within, I feel more empowered and hopeful about the future than I know would have without it.  And for that… I can’t thank you enough.”

You’re welcome, Matt. Enjoy the baby drool, and spread the word among the other desirous Young Hornies, that there but for the Grace of Garth, goeth I.

Seriously, the real estate situation in the GTA grows only darker. Sure, there are still bidding wars for ‘affordable’ junk in Leslieville or quasi-Danforth (less than $800,000), but the real canary in the coalmine is the new housing and condo market, where developers have been adding in everything but free DNA to make sales. And still they keep sliding.

The bad news this week comes from RealNet Canada. Here are the lowlights:

  • Total September new home sales (condos and low rise) the 2nd lowest on record
  • Total third-quarter sales the lowest ever.
  • Total sales, year-to-date 13% below long-term average.
  • Condo inventory at second-highest level on record.

In other words, sales continue to crumble, even as 53,000 new units are marketed, built and delivered. Meanwhile the first crack in pricing is starting to show, with a -1.2% year-over-year decline in condo prices.

“Decline?!” cry the former virgins from their concrete cliffs. “How the hell did that happen? Mom told me real estate always goes up!” Indeed she did, little one, and she was wrong. Housing’s just like every other asset, and anyone who bought with 5% down in the last couple of years is about to regret it. Hell, even a 1.2% decline combined with realtor commission, CMHC premium and closing costs means (if you sold) a loss in one year of $23,450 on a $400,000 condo. That’s a haircut of 7.8%, and it might look good compared to what 2013 has in store. The real threat, however, is illiquidity.

So, what could be worse than being a recent condo owner in Toronto? Being a real estate appraiser in Vancouver, of course. Yesterday Steve sent me this:

Ten years ago as a single man wanting a change of career, I looked into Vancouver real estate and the choices it had to offer. I decided on becoming a real estate appraiser, the idea of giving an honest opinion, protecting my client’s (lawyers, mortgage lenders, investors, etc.) interests, and not having to flog used mouldy houses that I would never buy myself appealed to me immensely.

After thousands of dollars, numerous courses, and on the job experience, I became a designated residential appraiser with the Appraisal Institute of Canada and began working for myself. These were good times, before the crash of 2008/2009, the workflow was solid, the money was good, and everyone was getting good news on paper when my appraisal reports came back. I am an honest appraiser (we do exist) and I base all my work on market evidence, no lies and no stretching values that are not there. You were treated like a rock star back then…

Flash forward five years, and my how things have changed, and I am clearly beginning to wish I had opted for some other profession. Things bounced back after the economic crisis, but were never the same as the prior good times. I could see things changing dramatically in Vancouver and its many soulless burbs last winter and spring. All of a sudden the supply increasing, sales slowing and the warnings of mortgage rule changes. I knew what was coming, I had been reading you for years…plus I could see the market for what it was: blatantly overpriced, irrational, and in need of strong medication.

The work has slowly dried up. An increase in foreclosure and divorce work has been nice, but it is a downright depressing experience witnessing this, even from my impartial perch. The financing work is still there, but now it seems to mostly be desperate homeowners refinancing than anything else, and a good portion of the time it appears that it does not work out for them. Angry phone calls are a daily experience, either pissed homeowners shocked at the truth, or bitter lenders and mortgage brokers, livid that the deal is probably not going to happen, and no commission will be coming their way. This job is just demoralizing now, like kicking people when they are defenceless on the ground. I find no satisfaction is delivering the truth, and no one wants to hear it.

I have a strong feeling stability will be in very short supply in the Vancouver real estate market for some time. It was fun and somewhat rewarding while it lasted. I am sure I am not alone…soon to be joined in my conclusions by many realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, bank lenders, etc. who thought they could make a go of it in this dysfunctional market.

Thanks for everything you do, any suggestions for a new career?

Will Toronto be the new Vancouver? I will have more to say on this tonight, at our event at the DoubleTree hotel. Bring your mom.

174 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 10.22.12 at 8:12 pm

Get ready, for tonight (Tuesday, Toronto’s event)!! I wonder if Garth has a yellow tie picked out.

– The GreaterFool Drinking Team will be assembling at the hotel’s bar, 5pm sharp.

– Realtors: bring your GT effegies. Burnings will being at 8pm sharp.

– C, H and F souvenir voodoo dolls will be for sale.

– Bonus: a special preview of the latest Italian Rock-Opera; entitled: “Big-a-rider – why you no buya da house?”

#2 FTP - First Time Poster on 10.22.12 at 8:21 pm

Nice post Garth – good to see things from both the buyers and the insiders. More evidence that those who bail now will save themselves a lot of grief.

#3 TOUGH TIMES on 10.22.12 at 8:36 pm

Tough Times Coming to Canada Soon!!! HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards. You were duped over the last 5 years. Now is the time to start low balling these RE properties by 50% and get your revenge!!!

REASONS:

* 70% of Canadians living Pay Cheque to Pay Cheque
* Austeritiy in the Air – President Harper alone will be cutting 20,000 gov’t jobs this year or early next year.
* Sales on RE have been crashing the last 6 months. Don’t believe the bull you hear from CRE the used car sales people with there fudged numbers.
* Canada can’t even compete against the USA. Factories are closing here and moving to the USA, where the new wage is $12.00 an hour and you can buy a nice home for $100,000K now. Can you say we are SCREWED.
* Europe, China, Japan and USA are slowing down.
* NO MORE FREE Money to buy homes as the banks are starting to tighten up.
* Soon Constructions Jobs will be lost in massive quantities as the housing industry in Canada has started slowing down. Just look at what happened to Spain, Ireland, USA etc when there construction jobs went bye, bye. Remember these folks can’t go get a factory job like the past as there are NONE? Can you say SCREWED.
* Many homes on MLS are empty, can you say Power of Sales have started.
* Finally, a home is only worth what a buyer will pay. So get out there and start low balling my virgins.

HGTV Vigirns get out there on MLS and just low ball your local Realtard by e-mail on properties you are interested in. Don’t waste your time and money going to dead open houses etc. Low Ball, Low Ball

#4 Boombust on 10.22.12 at 8:39 pm

My message to all those who looked at me as though I was a lunatic for not buying into the Vancouver market for the past 5 years:

“Told ya so.”

#5 Ferrari4321 on 10.22.12 at 8:52 pm

are you ready to rumbleeeeee?

#6 Retired Boomer - WI on 10.22.12 at 8:54 pm

My, my the Canucks are getting testy. Just wait….it is still WAY too early to be calling Garth a “prophet” on RE.

Whgen the 15 to whatever percentage drop HAS materialized, THEN you can gloat about “staying out of the market.”

The Smoking Man, the self-proclaimed guru of all financial has said “NO” RE MELT in GTA.

Well, somebody is going to be incorrect. A 15% drop in GTA will be a 15% drop there. A 50% drop in those squishy west coast towns might be reality, but that is merely a MIGHT until you get a seller to sell you theirs for 50% off.

Don’t get you undies in a bundle.

#7 Victor on 10.22.12 at 9:00 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/toronto-leads-north-american-high-rise-construction/article4629888/

Canada’s housing market, in contrast, experienced a relatively minor slump at the height of the crisis, but recovered so quickly that policy-makers and economists here began fearing that a bubble would form. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has sought to cool the market by tightening up the country’s mortgage insurance rules, making it harder for a number of buyers to obtain a mortgage, and has cited Toronto and Vancouver’s condo markets as sources of particular concern. His fear had been that low interest rates might have been spurring more construction than the market could absorb without a large drop in prices.

Prices for new condos in Toronto have recently been falling, while resale prices are flattening out, and Mr. Flaherty has suggested that he’s become less concerned.

According to Emporis, Toronto now has 147 high-rises and skyscrapers under construction, compared to 72 in New York City. Vancouver ranked third with 21.

#8 Devore on 10.22.12 at 9:03 pm

The drop in condo pre-sales is surprising. Usually, as the market is tipping over, resales tank, but pre-sales stay strong. This is because pre-sale “buyers” don’t need to qualify for a mortgage. You may not be able to buy a $400,000 condo, but you can “buy” a $400,000 pre-sale. You then hope (well, “hope” is such a strong word, in a world where real estate always goes up) by the time you have to close in 3-4 years, you can either flip it without a problem for a profit, or be in a better financial position to get a mortgage.

#9 panopticon singularity on 10.22.12 at 9:07 pm

welcome to the real world, where if you are lucky enough to have a job you make less with every passing year. hope you saved your duckets, we are in for 7 years of lean…

#10 Uh Oh Canada on 10.22.12 at 9:09 pm

So when can I sign up for the big show in Montreal?

#11 house burden on 10.22.12 at 9:12 pm

Steve your only doing your job. It wasn’t you who spread the fantasy Facade amongst the Sheeples.

Blame the Banks, CMHC, CREA, but I put the biggest part of the BLAME on the MEDIA. Shame on you for selling your souls to the DEVIL. Shame on Tamara taggart and the rest of the Media staff for putting out the impression that things are ok. The Truth is out there and soon it will be a real kick in the Balls for many

#12 Paul on 10.22.12 at 9:15 pm

Sellers are being stubborn out here on Van Is. Price reductions are just not happening very often up in the Cobble Hill area. Sales aren’t either.

#13 Smoking Man on 10.22.12 at 9:20 pm

#6 Retired Boomer – WI on 10.22.12 at 8:54 pm
The Smoking Man, the self-proclaimed guru of all financial has said “NO” RE MELT in GTA.
…………………………………………………………….

Lets be clear, No Re MELT 416 SFH.

Condos are toast, Sold my last one in Jun 2011, Market High.

#14 Jim on 10.22.12 at 9:22 pm

#6,

The great thing about tulip mania (for this housing situation is clearly a similar form of exhuberance) is that periods of overenthusiastic valuation are followed by periods of similarly pessimistic flight from holding the asset in question. Mass psychology drives the bubble up, and many people jump on the wagon by looking at the derivative. Right now, the derivative is indicating a downward shift in many markets. There are soon to be many bandwagon jumpers.

#15 Smoking Man on 10.22.12 at 9:24 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 10.22.12 at 8:12 pm
Get ready, for tonight (Tuesday, Toronto’s event)!! I wonder if Garth has a yellow tie picked out.

– The GreaterFool Drinking Team will be assembling at the hotel’s bar, 5pm sharp.
…………………………………………………………………..

I will be there at 6ish health willing,

What the hell is this bug going around. Now I know what a big feels like after being hit by an 18 wheeler on 401

#16 james on 10.22.12 at 9:30 pm

yeahhh…..just myself around here!!!!!!!

#17 Smoking Man on 10.22.12 at 9:30 pm

I will be there with my drinking hat.

#18 Freedom First on 10.22.12 at 9:31 pm

“But for the Grace of Garth”…….thanks for the laugh!……How about “Let go and let Garth” ?

In reality Garth, I believe with all the hits you get on your blog, that you have helped more people than you will ever know! Most unfortunate, that the GFC and RE bubbles in so many countries have financially devastated so many millions of people. Worst thing, Canadians followed them off the same cliff. Sad…

#19 james on 10.22.12 at 9:33 pm

Anything higher than 500,000 in woodbridge is not selling for the last 6 months, and the “pretending” to be millionaires are having hard times keeping with increasing overhead.

#20 len on 10.22.12 at 9:36 pm

An interesting trial balloon in the Globe today regarding F eyeing privatizing CMHC. If that were to happen, perhaps the underpricing of risk due to government backing may dissapear. Unless F offloads to insiders and uses taxpayer backing as a transitional measure?

What are peoples’ thoughts on this idea?

#21 Smoking Man on 10.22.12 at 9:39 pm

#17 Smoking Man on 10.22.12 at 9:30 pm

You have no idea fakie SM how you have helped me out.

If I am ever wrong, I will just say it’s fakie not me.

If I did something stupid in a drunkin state, like drawing Mohammed I would just blame you.

LOL

Thanks Fakie

#22 frank le skank on 10.22.12 at 9:40 pm

I’m at the DoubleTree bar with my Mom and I don’t see you anywhere?

#23 Susan from London area on 10.22.12 at 9:50 pm

Hi Garth just hoping you might say a blurb or two about the Southwestern Ontario economy errr London area Tuesday evening. I’ll be there with bells on and ears wide open. Thanks Sue

#24 GTA Girl on 10.22.12 at 9:56 pm

James, is that true about anything over $500k not selling? If so, that would mean nothing is selling in Woodbridge except town homes.

Those poor sods up near MajorMac all seem to have added $20k to their asking prices. Yes, ADDED.

Now homes are asking $975k.

I recently saw a listing for a McMansion off Clarence south of Rutherford. Just built in last 2 years. Lovely interior. Downs view kitchen, wood floors throughout, 4 bedrooms all with ensuites. Finished basement with theatre room.

Gorgeous.

But then you look closer. Yes, top of line fixtures. But hardly any furniture. One room had a crib and baby toys, clothes etc… But rest of the house was staged with the minimum amount of furniture. Backyard was empty, only grass.

Then you realize, this couple built this house and then had nothing left to furnish, landscape. Only babies room had furniture.

Now they are asking ….$1,850,000.

Insane

#25 vonder bra on 10.22.12 at 9:58 pm

“Blame the Banks, CMHC, CREA, but I put the biggest part of the BLAME on the MEDIA. Shame on you for selling your souls to the DEVIL. Shame on Tamara taggart and the rest of the Media staff for putting out the impression that things are ok. The Truth is out there and soon it will be a real kick in the Balls for many”

Tamara Taggert …..shill, media whore, makes me sick
to my stomach to watch her …..

Deception and glossy salespeople are everywhere!

#26 Toronto CA on 10.22.12 at 10:05 pm

So basically…record high inventory for condos and record low sales. Sounds like a perfect storm to me.

The condo mania is insane, and anyone with a brain could have figured out how this was going to go down. Toronto should not be building more highrises than Mexico City (21.2 million people) or New York, Chicago and Miami combined.

#27 Canadian Watchdog on 10.22.12 at 10:08 pm

#8 Devore

Actually new sales decline faster then resales. Chart Today’s numbers are the best it gets for the rest of this year. The next few months will see even greater declining sales as average prices sway.

This market is getting too predictable and boring now. I need a new bubble.

#28 Elmer on 10.22.12 at 10:10 pm

I’m interested in what you have to say but can’t make it, so can you provide it in MP3 format for me? Or better yet hire a cameraman and upload it to youtube.

#29 DUI on Money Road on 10.22.12 at 10:10 pm

Congratulations Matt and soon-to-be wife. Twins are certainly a blessing. I hope your wife’s pregnancy goes well, twin pregnancies can be very different (difficult) from a singleton pregnancy, and expect the babies to arrive a few weeks early. Your wife may even be put on bedrest for months. So don’t plan anything major for after the 6 month point…i.e. get married sooner rather than later if possible.

And cutting expenses for a few years is probably the best thing you can do to position yourself for the future.

You’ll be looking at a $500/mo RESP bill (if you so choose to fund their education this way), a couple hundred bucks/mo in diapers, wipes, diaper cream and at least another couple hundred/mo amortized expenses like clothes, shoes, boots, coats, cribs, mattresses, monitor, swings, chairs, eating utensils, car seats, change tables…you will not believe the list goes on.

Your life just changed forever. Seriously, congrats man.

#30 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 10.22.12 at 10:13 pm

Would love to see a video of one of your presentations. Hey, what an idea. Attach a Paypal idea to the videos of your meetings and all of us Expats can watch it too.

#31 disciple on 10.22.12 at 10:21 pm

FYI – Confirmed earlier today… Jimi Hendrix is still alive… as Morgan Freeman… Yup, same individual.

#32 Victoria on 10.22.12 at 10:24 pm

DUI on Money Road,

Oh the baby is the easy part. Just wait until they get older money for …

tutoring (possibly)
private schools if you choose
clothes
lots and lots of food
sports
dance
more food

and I have no idea what will be there in 10 plus years. I have two kids that need a tutor for math. $400 a month.

#33 randman on 10.22.12 at 10:25 pm

“But there is no inflation!” – This is a statement I hear quite often, sometimes from people who are, in principle, sympathetic to my arguments, sometimes from people who are less so. In either case, those who state “but there is no inflation” consider it to be a statement of fact and one that they assume must pose a challenge for me. Should the man who argues that we are heading for the collapse of paper money, for some kind of hyperinflationary endgame, not be concerned that all this money printing by central banks around the world has not led to much higher inflation yet? Do present inflation statistics not provide comfort to those who believe in the practicability and even superiority of central-bank-managed fiat money, and do these statistics not allow them to discard my analysis as paranoid?

The short answer is, no.

The long answer I will provide below.”

Interesting article on inflation

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/detlev-schlichter/no-inflation-monetary-debasement

#34 a prairie dawg on 10.22.12 at 10:28 pm

That dog looks familiar. Laying on the white carpet a few blogs ago maybe.

#35 Devore on 10.22.12 at 10:33 pm

#25 vonder bra

The day you show up with a cheque in hand at the CTV offices to pay Tamara’s salary, is when you get to tell them what to put on the teleprompter.

#36 Seriously? on 10.22.12 at 10:51 pm

That is the BEST dog picture,

EVER!

Seriously

#37 TopsyTurvy on 10.22.12 at 10:53 pm

Nice doggy :)

#38 NO Work In BPOE on 10.22.12 at 10:56 pm

My buddy a lawyer does RE transactions, tells me the past 2 months he has had Zero deals to close on, 1st time 2 months in a row in the last 9 yrs, says Oct will be 3 months in a row, unprecidented.

He’s hurtn

#39 Markymark on 10.22.12 at 11:05 pm

See you tomorrow, and I’m totally bringing my mom!

#40 Bottoms_Up on 10.22.12 at 11:06 pm

#170 Market Mechanic on 10.22.12 at 4:28 pm
—————————————————
The masses or majority can never be wrong?

Have you ever heard of Nazi Germany?

Or about a guy named John Stuart Mill, a very intelligent 19th century fellow that spent his days achieving a higher level of thinking, that came to the determination that the masses CAN be wrong?

#41 Mister Obvious on 10.22.12 at 11:11 pm

#25 vonder bra on

Tamara Taggert is just doing a job. Not a particularly honourable job I suppose, but if it wasn’t her it would be somebody else.

Direct your venom at the real culprits: Those stewards of an education system that leaves the masses seriously lacking in practical financial knowledge after a dozen years of public schooling and in many cases several more years of college or university.

And don’t forget Mom & Dad. They weren’t much help either. Shame.

#42 Bob on 10.22.12 at 11:55 pm

To Steve the real estate appraiser… don’t feel bad at all… not one bit. There are a lot, possibly even more people who rent and wait their turn to buy. These people you give the truth have lived beyond their means, are participants of increasing real-estate values to insane values for YEARS. So for each one who is forced to sell, we hope a patient renter takes their place.

#43 DON on 10.23.12 at 12:04 am

@ Matt

Congrats on the twins and good luck. Don’t you worry one bit about reducing your entertainment expenses, unfortunately or fortunately depeding how you look at the situation, you will be homebound weeks before your children arrive and for the next 1.5 years at least. As I write my wife is changing the oldest one’s diapers and I am hoping…really hoping I can type fast enough to say what I have to say before the other wakes up. Yup on shift, but I esape to work. There, I deal with adult children – don’t we all.

Matt – one of the greatest joys in life is to watch your child in the first moments of his/her new milestones. Truly amazing, rewarding, comical, tiring and life changing to say the least.

The shittest thing about this blog is that it foreshadows the suffering people will endure. For that I truly hate the subject of this blog, but the wisdom and sharing of others is second to none.

Matt you escaped the real estate fiascal but hunker down, your are about to go to a whole new dimension. You’ll still think about housing but in a much more functional way – privacy, if you get my drift and have the Energy/Time if you get my drift.

Good luck, fun travels.

One hell of a blog Garth!

One of the joys of my li

#44 john on 10.23.12 at 12:14 am

big big show all of garths minions will be there to hear the great prophet hahaha

#45 Rainman on 10.23.12 at 12:31 am

Tamara Taggert is just doing her job, a mere puppet. I’m sure she means well and has no idea. Likely in her own little bubble.
Kind of feel sorry for her kind. Lots like her….

#46 martin on 10.23.12 at 12:53 am

garth, am i gonna have the honour do get a you a whisky on the rocks?

#47 TRT on 10.23.12 at 12:53 am

Hey Junius, Herb,

Is your firm helping bring these 200 Temporary Foreign Workers (Who won’t be counted in Stats) to build a new mine? After its built, more will come to work there.

These are high quality jobs Canadians won’t have. Guess Canadians are suckers!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-to-probe-report-foreign-workers-made-to-pay-fees-for-jobs/article4630236/

Oh, and they will need shelter….

#48 West coast guy on 10.23.12 at 1:16 am

#8 Devore on 10.22.12 at 9:03 pm

The drop in condo pre-sales is surprising. Usually, as the market is tipping over, resales tank, but pre-sales stay strong. This is because pre-sale “buyers” don’t need to qualify for a mortgage. You may not be able to buy a $400,000 condo, but you can “buy” a $400,000 pre-sale. You then hope (well, “hope” is such a strong word, in a world where real estate always goes up) by the time you have to close in 3-4 years, you can either flip it without a problem for a profit, or be in a better financial position to get a mortgage.
——————————————————–

So you’re getting all excited because 2 condo projects sold out in 1 day this year. What’s the F$&@ are you smokin’? There are so many projects in Richmond, False creek, downtown, Burnaby, Coquitlam….. Get it, there’s a shitload of new condos and they aren’t doing so well now. I have a realtor friend that is saying the developers are starting to worry because they can’t sell out.

15 sfh sales so far this month in Richmond.
40 attached sold so far in Richmond.

You just don’t see it eh Devore? That’s why your comments sometimes doesnt have any knowledge behind it.

#49 ozy - stop buying kandos in kando forest, baby on 10.23.12 at 1:20 am

A simple message tonight- S-T-O-P buying kandos in the kando forest (Toronto), baby!!!

Sleep at new boyfrinds’ place(S)

It’s very simple, see?

#50 ozy - stop buying kandos in kando forest, baby on 10.23.12 at 1:20 am

A simple message tonight- S-T-O-P buying kandos in the kando forest (Toronto), baby!!!

Sleep at new boyfriends’ place(S)

It’s very simple and fun, see?

#51 Oceanside on 10.23.12 at 1:38 am

Garth’s new career, whatever it may be at least won’t involve the asinine term “house horny” Be good to be away from that cornball phrase!

#52 dv8 on 10.23.12 at 1:47 am

Money only buys time now ,in the old days time would buy money .

Bought a mars bar today .holy chit $1.65.Last year I paid
.99 cents that’s a 66.7% increase and the bar was 52grams ,it used to be 60grams maybe the demand for chocolate bars are up because depressed people eat more chocolate because they can’t sell their houses
maybe I’ll invest in cocoa .Question is .is it really demand for cocoa or is it because it is a commodity and printing money is causing commodities to rise ?
sure smells like inflation to me

#53 Buy? Curious? on 10.23.12 at 3:22 am

Garth, just wanted you to wish you a good night and a successful presentation tonight. I doubt Smoking Man will reveal himself (well, not for free) either. However, in order to have a smooth night please remember the following:

1. No one is allowed in wearing a mullet!
2. Do not rush the stages, especially the dudes.
3. Lighters are not to be held up in the air.
4. NO ONE IS ALLOWED IN WEARING A MULLET!
5. Do not talk to any female that is taller than 5’9, they are not Amazons
6. Pictures and/or videos of tonight’s event including posing with Garth himself should be posted as soon as possible.

Please feel free to add some suggestions here as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STbhaqsBJB0

#54 eagle eyes on 10.23.12 at 4:02 am

Question for anyone out there – If a Canadian used HELOC to buy a property in Arizona for cash, stretched himself thin, property values decline in Canada, declares bankruptcy….would he be “required” to sell his RE in Arizona? I have many friends who have invested with HELOCS, and I can see this happening as prices are dropping in Canada.

#55 AACI Home-Dog on 10.23.12 at 4:38 am

I feel a bit bad for Steve, the Vancouver appraiser, but not too bad…
I have been in the private appraisal profession for nearly 30 years, and can say these real estate cycles come & go (every 7 years or so around here in my part of BC). So dealing with an angry client or 2 is not a new age phenomenom. In fact, I do not know if there are any jobs that pay well without there downfalls, are there ? Grow a set, or at least get some thicker skin dude.

#56 AACI Home-Dog on 10.23.12 at 4:47 am

Re: Appraiser Steve again….Garth…I am sure you and many investment advisers had to also put up with “whiny clients” when things went for a dump in 2008, no ?

Sometimes clients have to be told the truth, and it hurts them, as well as the “bearer of bad news”.

but it’s a living…

#57 Rishu on 10.23.12 at 7:40 am

See you tonight, sir. Looking forward to your talk. I am in the military, so when I am posted, all my expenses for buying and selling is covered by tax payers. Is it still worth it for me to rent? (Currently own; I never exceed income to mortgage ratio: 3 to 1. 200k current mortgage. 70k income.)

#58 Victor on 10.23.12 at 7:52 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/higher-mortgage-rates-would-hit-households-hard-bmo/article4629849/

While nearly all of those surveyed said debt is a serious issue for Canada, only 19 per cent thought that it was a problem for them. Sixteen per cent said a 10 per cent increase in mortgage payments would leave them at risk of not being able to afford their home.

“Rising debt and elevated house prices have increased the vulnerability of a meaningful number of households, and their financial situation will worsen if interest rates increase even moderately,” BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri stated. “With rates likely to remain low for some time, the recent tightening in mortgage rules will help to cool credit growth and the housing market.”

The survey was conducted for BMO by Pollara, and done by way of online interviews with a random sample of 1,011 homeowners between Sept. 13 and Sept. 21.

#59 Maureen on 10.23.12 at 7:58 am

How’s this for a declining Montreal market? A real estate agent on my street listed her house and another neighbors house at the beginning of September. Her house is MLS 9163812 valued at $389,800. She listed at $599,000. A few days later it was $574,000. Then $559,000. Then $549,000. Today it is $534,900. Meanwhile, if I was her client I think I would fire her…their house is MLS 9769317 (valued at $410,000) she started at $609,000 and has reduced the price this week to $599,000. Seems to me she is far more interested in selling her overpriced piece of property than she is in selling theirs! How crazy is this? Did I mention that this is in Montreal, NOT Vancouver.

#60 Centre-ville on 10.23.12 at 8:02 am

Whoever suggested a show in Montreal: I second that.

Come, Garth. / Viens, Garth.

#61 TurnerNation on 10.23.12 at 8:25 am

Rain all day, all night in Toronto. Ahead of tonight’s GarthFest 2012. An omen? Two by two we’ll head to the event. I’m sure the seas will be parted already.

#62 Pitbully on 10.23.12 at 8:51 am

Garth any chance for a visit in Ottawa? I would like to hit on the Amazons and bombard you with questions. :)

#63 Tony on 10.23.12 at 9:02 am

This blog bores me, but Garth is just too damn sexy…

#64 Stoopid Idiot on 10.23.12 at 9:18 am

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Fabian Calvo buys and sells a $100 million worth of distressed mortgage debt and property a year. He says, “We haven’t even scratched the surface of being at the bottom of the housing market.” Calvo runs a company called TheNoteHouse.us and predicts, “. . . massive default and massive foreclosures after the election.” Calvo is an outspoken critic of crony capitalism on his “Fabian4Liberty” YouTube channel that has nearly 2 million views! Calvo says, “You have to flush out mal investment to get the economy working again and to rework the Constitutional Republic, you have to flush out the criminals who have hi-jacked it.” Calvo contends, “There is systemic fraud and corruption” and sees firsthand how “. . . banks are profiting from short sales and foreclosures.” Calvo thinks there is an even bigger financial meltdown on the not-so-distant horizon, and it “. . . will center around the repudiation of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency” and that food and fuel prices could “triple.” In 2013, Calvo predicts, “The next President will inherit the economic calamity that is coming.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Fabian Calvo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=XID9IvftP0k

#65 TurnerNation on 10.23.12 at 9:22 am

Blog Dog Carney holds rates firm. ZIRP…drip…drip…

#66 Herb on 10.23.12 at 9:23 am

#11 House Burden, #25 vonder bra,

let’s review the media chain of command.

Owners (corporations these days) want to make money and push personal, corporate and group interests (including political). Publishers manage budgets and content to the satisfaction of ownership, with advertising and not content being the modern media money maker. Publishers tell editors the corporate line to pursue and what will or will not be published. Editors accordingly assign stories to reporters, supervise that research, and approve what will be go on to publication. Reporters research and write what they have been told. And “presenters” present what is given to them to present.

If you don’t like what you see, hear or read in media outlets, don’t blame the bottom of the food chain. There are no loose cannons in the corporate media world.

#67 housedoc on 10.23.12 at 9:28 am

Last time I was at a live Garth event was in the 80’s!

Will I need a nap this afternoon?

#68 phinny on 10.23.12 at 9:32 am

Congrats on the babe-ers, Matt!

Got a seven week old, now. Went to bed last night at 3:00 am, up at 6:30 and checking the blog and FP before heading off too work. I celebrated last night when the boy went to bed at 10:00 and slept two four hour stretches.

It was a premature celebration, and last night had me re-thinking whether it really, truly is so bad to give a baby a 1/4 oz of scotch when the wife isn’t looking, to put him to sleep.

A good scotch, of course…

#69 Junius on 10.23.12 at 9:32 am

#47 TRT,

This is your argument? That under paid foreign mine workers are here to buy million dollar homes? Do you know how ridiculous this sounds?

#70 Buy? Curious? on 10.23.12 at 9:40 am

Garth, is this what we’re expecting to see tonight?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4BeKHDQrR0

I’ve set out my Google Alerts so that videos and photos will be emailed to me. I’ll edit it to a sound track and post back online before Smoking Man can string a sentence together using the words, “Track 6er, the machine, and Black Mamba.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syhb3z4pTFQ

Sorta. But funkier. — Garth

#71 GTA Engineer on 10.23.12 at 9:50 am

Earnings and revenue projections continue to disappoint. S&P500 sliding significantly this morning. Surprising that this is coming before the election, but there’s only so much spin that can be provided to juice the markets. Would not be surprised to see Bernanke increase the $40B/month QE as a temp measure prior to the election, but the trend is clear – sit on the sidelines – this isn’t the time to be in the markets! Some examples from the last 24 hours:

Dupont – misses earnings, cutting jobs to offset slowing sales (I said it before – cost cuts are a short-term fix to earnings, but long-term, revenues will result in earnings deteriorating further)

3M – profit rose but guided lower for Q4

Radioshack – misses earnings

United technologies – misses earnings, guides lower for Q4

Last night’s debate was perhaps more of a factor. Earnings are fine. — Garth

#72 Bottoms_Up on 10.23.12 at 9:50 am

#54 eagle eyes on 10.23.12 at 4:02 am
——————————————
In the eyes of the law international real estate would be considered an asset? Thus would be required to sell in a bankruptcy?

#73 refinow on 10.23.12 at 9:52 am

The 1.2% decrease in the cond market from last year actually represents a significantly greater decrease. Prices did not cap out in October last year so what you actually have to consider is the erosion of all the increases that happened after October last year. My estimate is we have already seen at least a 5% melt in the Condo prices and this thing is just getting started.

#74 Smoking Man on 10.23.12 at 10:00 am

No spike big shock.

Nobody (sober) expected rates to move today. — Garth

#75 Old Dad on 10.23.12 at 10:00 am

phinny on 10.23.12 at 9:32 am
Congrats on the babe-ers, Matt!

Got a seven week old, now. Went to bed last night at 3:00 am, up at 6:30 and checking the blog and FP before heading off too work. I celebrated last night when the boy went to bed at 10:00 and slept two four hour stretches.

It was a premature celebration, and last night had me re-thinking whether it really, truly is so bad to give a baby a 1/4 oz of scotch when the wife isn’t looking, to put him to sleep.

A good scotch, of course…

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Heres my advice on babies. I know only a couple of things but they are gospel:

1. When the kid is big enough to drink from a glass, give him/her the biggest heaviest mug you have. The kid will be able to lift and drink from it but won’t knock it over. Only use those small “Mickey Mouse” cups/glasses if you enjoy mopping juice off the floor.

2. Diaper rash: use a hair blow dryer set on low and dry the kid’s butt thoroughly at each diaper change. Takes about 15 extra seconds but the kid will NEVER get diaper rash.

3. Colic: If the kid is colicy it may be a milk allergy. Switch to soy based formula. It may just save your marriage.

The rest? You’re on your own.

#76 Investx on 10.23.12 at 10:09 am

No change in rates again (17th in a row). Low rates persist. Garth, you must be scratching your head.

This is consistent with the quasi-deflation I have been writing about for months. Not good news. — Garth

#77 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 10:11 am

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement – October 23, 2012

The Bank of Canada once again opted to hold its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent this morning. Interest rates have been held constant for over two years, the longest such period since the 1950s. The Bank somewhat tempered its bias for higher future interest rates, including a softer statement regarding the appropriateness of a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus as excess supply in the economy is absorbed. In a bit of a surprise, the Bank actually raised its forecast for the growth in the Canadian economy this year to 2.2 per cent, but kept its 2013 forecast at 2.3 per cent growth. The Bank judges that at that pace of growth, the Canadian economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2013.

It is our view that monetary policy at the Bank of Canada will continue to be constrained by external events in the global economy and household debt growth at home. While the Bank’s preference for tighter policy is clear, it is difficult to make a case for higher interest rates when core inflation is below the Bank’s 2 per cent target and already slow economic growth is threatened by global uncertainty. Therefore, we are forecasting that the Bank of Canada will hold its target overnight rate at 1 per cent until mid-to-late 2013 when, conditioned on an improved global economic outlook, it may test the water with a 25 basis point rate increase.

– BCREA

#78 John on 10.23.12 at 10:17 am

Now, we’re moving back into my folks’ empty nest (I know…. wish me luck) in happy Hamilton, to spend a year absorbing free child care services and to save every penny we can, which, we’ll be applying to a balanced portfolio.

We could have been sunk…. And despite all the dreary prognostications within, I feel more empowered and hopeful about the future than I know would have without it.  And for that… I can’t thank you enough.”
——
You know what? This stinks. Both it being sold and it being bought. It’s an outright lie. Why? This man has no interest in what he, his family and Canada is to the world.

Does he know what liquidity means to him and his future? No he does not and he’s not going to look. Great he dodged a bullet.

So the blog is about bullet dodging. Great. But it all goes to hell after that.

The 9 second cold shower followed by a warm bath is a lie. Straight up.

Once the liquidity game is put up on the table, in a serious way, the lights go out.

It’s that simple.

#79 PoorgEoisie on 10.23.12 at 10:17 am

Dv8, choco rations up to 52 grams?! That’s double plus good.

#80 house burden on 10.23.12 at 10:26 am

As carney digs Canada deeper and deeper. He knows were almost six feet under. Appears he’s about to start some QE just like the US. Damn wish the US or Europe will stabilize.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/interest-rates/bank-of-canada-softens-rate-stand-flags-debt-concerns/article4630682/

Garth if Canada start to devalue it’s currency what investment would you suggest?

It won’t. — Garth

#81 Nemesis on 10.23.12 at 10:39 am

…”the literary equivalent of a cold shower.” – Matt

AuContraire… I’ve always thought of it as more like an AustinPowers HotTubParty.

As for Steve’s MeaCulpa… Wow. When TheAppraisers toss down the gauntlet… you know it’s ‘cooked’.

#82 20something on 10.23.12 at 10:46 am

My mom had been pressuring me to buy a house for a couple of years now. She recently saw a piece on housing (CBC) and suddenly her tune has changed.

While commuting home the other day I overheard a young man talking about how he was going to team up with an acquaintance to buy a 600k+ house (the max they could afford) with minimum down because “renting is a waste of money”……..

#83 Just Park It on 10.23.12 at 10:50 am

Maybe this is another fact that the real estate market is coming unhinged..

Parents sold there home late summer and the deal finalized this past month – I personally believe they sold at the top of the market – I was holding my breath that the buyers would reneg on them…luckily it didn’t.

Anyways – the couple that bought has a $700K home in Woodbridge – from the story through the grapevine, the buyers for their house either got cold feet and backed out of that deal or the bank may have made some type of changes..so my parent’s buyer had their bank appraiser come up to my parent’s home and appraise the property so they can provide a “temporary” loan. My parents were able to walk away with a certified cheque in hand..

The cracks are showing – I also own, I have been following various blogs since 2005 – as I questioned the house of cards back then… I am a happy buyer – bought in 2002 and haven’t looked back – 2 years and we will have slayed our Mortgage Dragon…

All are invited when we do our Mortgage burning – hopefully Garth will be bringing the marshmellows.

#84 jjpetes on 10.23.12 at 10:56 am

So in the article Steve says “like kicking people when they are defenceless on the ground”

Defenceless? I don’t think so. These are the same idiots who laughed at renters and they deserve all the hell that comes to them, every last cent of it. I hope they burn good long slow financial deaths of agony so they deserve far far more than just kicking them while they are down, hey Garth pass the gasoline!

jj

#85 Jamaican_Gal on 10.23.12 at 11:15 am

#69 phinny

In the old days, growing up in Jamaica, they’d rub a little white rum on the scalp of a fussy baby. Not advocating that at all though.

#86 broadway skytrain on 10.23.12 at 11:18 am

dow -450 by the end of day

got rear ended AGAIN this AM. dark wet, left turner on a small side street ahead of me, i braked moderately hard and stopped in plenty of time -had a feeling it was coming so i looked in the mirror to watch the car behind while he slid into me. god bless big solid steel trailer hitches. got out to see my towing ball embeded 8″ into his bumper. not a scratch on my truck. 3rd time it’s happened. the hitch saved my rear bumper each time, they should call them ‘defender’ hitches! :)

#87 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 11:20 am

Imagine a housing economy in which only Garth and The Blog Dawgs set the tone with no counterpoint offered by another…

#88 TurnerNation on 10.23.12 at 11:23 am

Congrats to all the short-term shorts. Those who piled into bonds/funds and selected puts. :-)

#89 fancy_pants on 10.23.12 at 11:27 am

so Carney kept rates the same for 17th consectutive time. Glad he is earning his $ doing what he does.

What I did have to chuckle at is this comment he made: “…worried about household debt and may need to hike rates if the problem worsens.”

Shhh. MC, a little hint for you: people stopped listening to your warning a long time ago. Maybe he should go join McGuilty on the time out bench. The problem has been worsening for the past 3+ years. Just hate being spoonfed the BS.

#90 Victor on 10.23.12 at 11:37 am

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=437747552927722&id=101901426512338

DO YOU HAVE A HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF $60,000 OR MORE?

Then *you may qualify for a 5.5% Cashback Mortgage that could be used as your downpayment for a home.

THIS OFFER IS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL OCT. 31ST 2012, as per the lending institution.

========================

Hmmmmmmmm.

#91 Dupcheck on 10.23.12 at 11:44 am

Just like Tough Times said: Low ball those realturds.
Their commission should be capped at 1%. No more. Since when it is ok that the seller should make more money than the owner? I never heard a dealer make more money than the manufacturer when it comes to cars. Realturds it is time for you to go and f… yourselves.
Gov please Regulate Realturds as their greediness is ruining our youths financial future.

#92 John on 10.23.12 at 11:51 am

AACI Home Dog wrote:

“I have been in the private appraisal profession for nearly 30 years, and can say these real estate cycles come & go…”

So this is another cycle? 1982-2012…see any trends that’ll predict how this one “comes” and “goes”? Sounds like the 30 years aren’t going to help very much if you see this as another “recession”. Isn’t it fundamentally different in about 37 ways?

How did this “cycle” come on? Pretty important question that “growing a set” doesn’t shed any light on.

#93 Uwinsome on 10.23.12 at 11:54 am

“Last night’s debate was perhaps more of a factor. Earnings are fine. — Garth”

How did last night’s debate have anything to do with today’s sell off? I don’t know where you get your stock market news Garth, but earnings have been terrible in the last week. Here’s a clip on earnings, by an economist that you have quoted before:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124467&play=1

Earnings have not been terrible. Hyperbole and extrapolation is the enemy of investors. So are Republicans. — Garth

#94 GTA Engineer on 10.23.12 at 12:02 pm

Last night’s debate was perhaps more of a factor. Earnings are fine. — Garth

————–

Where’s your evidence? ;) (yes, using your questions against you). My evidence is clear – company earnings are teetering and revenue projections are falling. Even MSM like the WSJ concur:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203406404578074151221809878.html

By the way, if you remove financial companies from the picture, which account for 85% of current earnings ‘beats’, the ratio of negative-to-positive guidance (currently 7.33:1) is at the highest level since 1Q07. Winter is coming…

#95 Not 1st on 10.23.12 at 12:03 pm

Earnings are fine? So these companies are lying to the market and not revealing the true nature of their financials?

This is just a forebearer to the upcoming double dip recession/depression the U.S. is about to enter. There never was any real recovery the than juiced QE. Thats not the consumer on the street.

#96 Uwinsome on 10.23.12 at 12:22 pm

“Earnings have not been terrible. Hyperbole and extrapolation is the enemy of investors. So are Republicans. — Garth”

By most accounts, Romey marginally lost the debate. So, by your logic (that Republicans are the enemy of the stock market) the market should have gone up today?

When Robert Shiller writes something you agrees with, you think he is a Guru and quote him. Obviously, when you don’t agree with him, his comments are hyperbole and extrapolation. Robert Shiller leans toward being a Democrat?

Polls are too close for markets’ comfort. Repubs would withdraw stimulus and usher in restraint. Not conducive to medium-term profitability. Romney held his own in weakest subject area. That’s a win. — Garth

#97 Form Man on 10.23.12 at 12:32 pm

#88 DA

The housing economy should be based on fundamentals. The notion that housing can be manipulated by media stories, internet, and so forth, is partly the cause of the current mess. If you truly believe the health of the housing market is determined by people’s emotions, then you are more deluded than we realized……

Matching supply to demand, and allowing the mortgage industry to stand on its own without government support is what needs to happen.

Pollyannas who wistfully speak of ‘asian investors’, ‘its different here’, ‘everyone wants to live here’, etc, are living a life of fantasy and dangerous myth.

the unfolding condo disaster in Kelowna shows no sign of abating yet…..

http://www.castanet.net/news/West-Kelowna/82212/Westside-development-under-siege

#98 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.23.12 at 12:37 pm

#88 };-) aka D.A.,

My man, hypotheticals don’t sell.

You want to “turn” people? Come up with a bullet-proof, irrefutable demonstration that owning in today’s climate trumps renting.

#99 Tony on 10.23.12 at 12:39 pm

Re: #96 Not 1st on 10.23.12 at 12:03 pm

The truth will come out once the election is over in America. When that happens you want nothing to do with stocks unless you’re short them. To the first part yes these companies all lied.

#100 Paul on 10.23.12 at 12:44 pm

#78 AkA DA,

“The bank continues to project that the expansion will be driven mainly by growth in consumption and business investment,” but that housing activity will slow and exports are expected to remain below pre-recession levels until the first half of 2014.

As for hiking slightly this year’s growth projection, the bank said that was due to revised methodology recently adopted by Statistics Canada, which bumped up growth in the second quarter one-tenth of a point to 1.9 per cent.

#101 CalgaryRocks on 10.23.12 at 12:53 pm

#87 broadway skytrain on 10.23.12 at 11:18 am
dow -450 by the end of day

got rear ended AGAIN this AM. dark wet, left turner on a small side street ahead of me, i braked moderately hard and stopped in plenty of time -had a feeling it was coming so i looked in the mirror to watch the car behind while he slid into me.

Let me explain why I think this always happens to you.

You have a big old truck that doesn’t allow the drivers behind you to see what is going on in front. You don’t drive defensively and you break too hard and too sudden. You also don’t leave enough room in front of you, otherwise you would have been able to move up, or move out of the way.

This may just be your fault on some level.

#102 Victor on 10.23.12 at 1:02 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/interest-rates/bank-of-canada-softens-rate-stand-flags-debt-concerns/article4630682/

“Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target,” the Bank of Canada said Tuesday in its latest policy statement.

“The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against global and domestic developments, including the evolution of imbalances in the household sector.”

“The bank wants to make absolutely clear that it is not contemplating rate cuts at this time,” Jimmy Jean, an economic strategist at Desjardins Capital Markets in Montreal, said in a note to clients. In April, policy makers first introduced language that reminded the public that rates would climb eventually, interpreted widely as a warning against taking on too much debt.

The statement suggests the central bank is resigned to leaving borrowing costs near record-low levels even though cheap money has caused Canadian households to pile on unprecedented levels of debt. The central bank’s decision to single out household “imbalances,” a first, suggests that policy makers could be moved to raise interest rates if they Canadians fail to curb their appetites for credit on their own.

#103 Patient in Richmond on 10.23.12 at 1:05 pm

desperate measures ?
Drove by this listing of townhouses yesterday and noticed the bIG sign stating you get a free honda civic if you by one of the units . Times sure have changed and i know these townhouses have been on the market a VERY long time

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12413825&PidKey=-185313027

#104 TurnerNation on 10.23.12 at 1:09 pm

#53Buy? Curious?

Don’t forget: No requests for Skynrd’s ‘Free Bird’!

#105 jess on 10.23.12 at 1:11 pm

TRT

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19977308

Izabella – not her real name – works as a picker in a warehouse and pays no more than £40 a week on food and getting to work. However, her payslips show that she regularly gets paid more than double that amount in expenses.

She told 5 live Investigates that she did not appear to be any better off for being in the scheme – and that she was not paying any income tax, which worried her.

“When I checked the payslip, I wanted to know about where my cash was going,” she said.

The answer is that the lion’s share of any tax saving is often taken by the agency and any company to which it subcontracts to manage its payroll – sometimes known as an “umbrella” company.

The agency worker then effectively becomes the payroll company’s employee…”

#106 Bottoms_Up on 10.23.12 at 1:14 pm

#95 GTA Engineer on 10.23.12 at 12:02 pm
———————————————
The stock ‘GE’ has been known to be a bellwether (or at least to reflect) the state of the economy. Notice that it is doing just fine.

#107 Just(not)anotherSheeple on 10.23.12 at 1:14 pm

BoC did not change the interest but Royal Bank did something:

=====================================
RBC recently made changes to it’s LTV policy. This is in response to a number of recommendation by OSFI. And the fact that more expensive home are less liquid, and the bank must compensate for this liquidity risk.

Effective October 15, 2012, the lending amount for conventional residential mortgages and RBC Homeline Plans, for all of Canada is subject to:

· loan to value tiering
· a maximum loan amount of $2,500,000.

Location
LTV Tiering

GVA
· 80% up to $1,250,000.00 and
· 50% of the balance

GTA
· 80% up to $1,000,000.00 and
· 50% of the balance

Alberta, Quebec, rest of Ontario and rest of B.C.
· 80% up to $750,000.00 and
· 50% of the balance

rest of Canada
· 80% up to $500,000.00 and
· 50% of the balance

#108 Bottoms_Up on 10.23.12 at 1:23 pm

Earnings have not been terrible. Hyperbole and extrapolation are the enemy of investors. So are Republicans. — Garth
————————————————-
Garth, be careful on spreading your wisdom. We need people to believe the hyperbole and extrapolation so that we can make money off them. ; )

#109 TRT on 10.23.12 at 1:43 pm

In other news…

RBC buys ALLY….just like ING got scooped up.

…and why don’t I hear blog chatter anymore that interest rates going up? ;)

#110 dosouth on 10.23.12 at 1:44 pm

#12-Paul

You’re right. Even after spending time showing him stats, this and other blogs, telling him why we left the market in 2009 my brother (in Cobble Hill) still is holding his ground on his place, even the realtor is trying.

He’s way over his head in this (education wise) and wants to drain every last cent but $150 over assessment in an area with little if any sales……he’ll sadly never get to his new home in the south…..not without a haircut and a shave. Just sayin’….

#111 Alex N Calgary on 10.23.12 at 1:46 pm

You know, I don’t even talk about real estate and the economy anymore, but this morning I couldn’t help. Cute marketing girl at work, age 30 was talking about selling her downtown condo and moving out of the city (very far!) I said Great time to get out of condo and rent, she looked skeptical. New HR woman bristling with confidence announces of course that Calgary is special, and different, its a GREAT time to buy now, houses will always go up here, everyone wants to MOVE here for jobs. She looked annoyed and or disgusted that I said commodity prices can and will fluctuate, currency etc etc. She said that she already rode out the recession in 2008…..
Someone with an investment condo likely and a huge bloated chipboard junkhouse on the edge of town. People simply cannot conceive a real estate correction, the arrogance of Calgary being “different and special” its disgusting. Will Marketing girl listen? probably not, HR girl will sit in her smugness, until shes underwater likely next year, then their rage will come to blame the Gov. for not protecting them, and who is to blame for this Recession? and my house? someone…someone…never myself..

#112 futureexpatriate on 10.23.12 at 1:58 pm

Any chance of a Garth/Harper debate?

Now THAT would be SOMETHING!!

#113 jess on 10.23.12 at 2:27 pm

reciprocity ?

http://thetyee.ca/News/2012/10/19/Chinese-Trade-Deal/

According to Harper, “This agreement with China — the world’s second largest economy — will provide stronger protection for Canadians investing in China, and create jobs and economic growth in Canada

…perhaps chasing all the bogus accounting

#114 Regan on 10.23.12 at 2:35 pm

For anyone who’s eager for a Canadian real estate collapse, just read some of these stories about unemployment from the U.S.. https://gawker.com/hello-from-the-underclass/
I know many analysts argue that the economy slowed first and THEN real estate crumbled, but I think the misallocation of resources into RE and the overconsumption fueled by debt created that soft emptiness that the economy has fallen into. I think we can easily end up in the same situation. Ask yourself – where does wealth come from? What is wealth, really? How well do we, as a society, generate it?

#115 Soylent Green is People on 10.23.12 at 2:37 pm

nderfund and cripple existing gov. programs so you have a good excuse why it must be farmed out to private enterprise (and then that’s where the bribes come into play, you can’t collect bribes from your gov. employees).

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/flaherty-eyes-privatization-of-cmhc/article4627593/

.

#116 Daisy Mae on 10.23.12 at 2:39 pm

CBC, October 23rd: “Plans to demolish the Varsity Ridge Bowling lanes and the Ridge Theatre to build a new four-story condominium development were approved by the City of Vancouver’s development permit board on Monday night.”

*********************

The City of Vancouver and the contractors just keep buiding…..

#117 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 2:41 pm

#99Dontcallmeshirley on 10.23.12 at 12:37 pm
#88 };-) aka D.A.,

My man, hypotheticals don’t sell.

You want to “turn” people? Come up with a bullet-proof, irrefutable demonstration that owning in today’s climate trumps renting.

Might that almost 70% of the population, who own instead of rent, might disagree with you be ample proof?

Investing in real estate is a long term hold, you cannot point a finger at any particular point in time and suggest it demonstrative of the intent of the investment. To do that you need to pick a frame of time – reasonable time. Most who buy a “home” have no intention of renting again. They may sell and buy another but they remain “in” the market.

No one knows what the future holds but based on the past I expect over the next ten years we will see real estate values increase such that those who today tout the “tis better to rent than buy” mantra will be humbled and in despair.

#118 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 2:50 pm

#98 Form Man on 10.23.12 at 12:32 pm

If what you say is true then please explain to me how and why strata sales in The Central Okanagan Division of the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board have increased 11% this year to date over last year? And don’t feed me some cock and bull story about my stats being wrong. They are taken from a direct unfettered database inquiry into the MLS System requesting all such sales for the two periods.

This year to date as at Tuesday October 23rd 2012 at 11:45am there have been 1,121 such sales of strata properties and last year for the same period there were 1,010 such sales.

#119 broadway skytrain on 10.23.12 at 2:57 pm

102 CalgaryRocks on 10.23.12 at 12:53 pm
Let me explain why I think this always happens to you.

You have a big old truck that doesn’t allow the drivers behind you to see what is going on in front. You don’t drive defensively and you break too hard and too sudden. You also don’t leave enough room in front of you, otherwise you would have been able to move up, or move out of the way.

This may just be your fault on some level.
—————————————————-
that’s really funny!

1. “big old truck” -if you can’t see what’s ahead , and you drive fast , who’s fault is that? so all buses/cube vans,big suv’s are guilty if they get rear ended!
btw – i drive a very small, old, truck, thank you.

2 “brake too hard” – i hope a kid/dog/grandma/etc. never finds its way in front of your moving vehicle. this is 6 lanes of death race pre-morning rush, if you are not doing 30+ over the limit stay off the road! the ability to confidently use your brake is essential.

3. “enough room in front to move up” – what a great idea! pull right up close to the car ahead when you are about to get rear ended (in the blink of an eye of course)so if you get pushed fwd, a 3rd car gets damaged and it becomes my liability, not the bonehead behind me! why didn’t i think of that?

it’s the scared shirtless, timid, plodding, unsure drivers who can be counted on to screw up when on the road. at least the more agressive drivers are usually watching the road and have non-geriatric response times.

#120 Old Man on 10.23.12 at 3:21 pm

I have no idea why there are those that think the TSX is crashing, and all is over. First of all it has nothing to do with individual issues, as the index is weighted, and never look at the big number, but the percentage drop, and what is less than 2% mean? Nothing to worry about, so lets move on shall we.

#121 SKRenter on 10.23.12 at 3:22 pm

Garth,

If you are ever interested in doing a piece on the old Regina here is the historical information: http://www.reginarealtors.com/images/trendline/weekly_activity_reports/2012/regina_wma_2012_10_15.pdf

Here is my synopsis of current attitudes:
Age: 45+ years – yahooo — i’m rich, but somehow i still haven’t paid off my $45k mortgage have 20 years of payments.
Age: 30-45 – yahoo i’m rich bust out that HELOC, and prices may go down but who cares or my mom’s basement sure is nice.
Age: <30 – i just spent $400k on a house, it will never go down, sales declines are not price declines, why would i be in trouble my banker just gave me a $50k heloc, suck it.

#122 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.23.12 at 3:23 pm

#118 };-) aka D.A.,

That’s it? That’s your pitch? Weak…please use examples.

Let me help you.

30 yrs of renting would be a cash outflow, more or less, of $650k. That’s the starting point.

Could an equivalent residence be bought (incl interest & realty tax), in the same amount of time or less, for that much $$$ or less? Maybe.

In the future, could a purchased residence be sold for some positive amount? Definitely.

If you follow, then the buyer’s final cash position is:

sale price – buy price – interest – prop tax – transaction cost

The renter’s final cash position is:

invested savings from renting over owning – lifetime of rent

You take it from there.

#123 TurnerNation on 10.23.12 at 3:48 pm

Don’t forget, bring a can of Realtor Spray tonight! It’s gonna be high season.

#124 Toronto_CA on 10.23.12 at 4:08 pm

Just got off the phone with our company’s actuaries. They were buliding in the “base scenario” for our stress testing out to 2016, and decided to include a bump in interest rates of +.5% each year including between now and December 31, 2012.

Yeah, I told him he was crazy. Now we’re revised to a half point increase starting in 2014 and another one in 2015 and 2016. That seems a lot more realistic, but Garth probably thinks the actuaries are right!

Truth is probably somewhere in between?

#125 Not 1st on 10.23.12 at 4:20 pm

Garth says days like these are like bargain sales, so I added to my ETF positions. Market probably does a 180 for tomorrow. Guess we’ll see.

#126 Beach Bum on 10.23.12 at 4:20 pm

I’m itching to get to the hotel bar…… see yah there!

#127 Canadian Watchdog on 10.23.12 at 4:20 pm

#117 Daisy Mae

“The City of Vancouver and the contractors just keep building”

If people don’t stop them, then they get what they deserve, until they lose their shirts and get mad. I can guarantee that at some point in the future, this is all going to blow up in the governments face. It always does and it won’t be pretty.

#128 Snowboid on 10.23.12 at 4:24 pm

#123 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.23.12 at 3:23 pm…

Based on the NY Times calculator on a $ 650,000 home with 10% down, 5.5% average interest over 30 years.

Rent of $ 1800 a month increasing 4% a year for 30 years.

Value of home increasing 2% a year for 30 years.

Value of investments as a renter, average return 4%

Other values plugged in based on current Kelowna taxes, maintenance, insurance, etc.

Result: $ 100,000 less to rent over thirty years.

Peace of mind, priceless!

#129 $$$BPOE#1 on 10.23.12 at 4:27 pm

Carney is not raising interest rates. Flaherty is done meddling in the housing market. BPOE right again
Real life scenarios not speculation on balanced portfolio returns. Investor 1 buys a house at age 30 and makes extra payments. At age 50 no mortgage and can use his house as an ATM machine for retirement
Investor 2 waits til age 40 for prices to drop. Now has to work til age 60 to pay off the mortgage.

#130 zeman1 on 10.23.12 at 4:37 pm

Garth:

Sales/revenue at Future Shop, Best Buy, Rona, Home Depot etc, have tanked 20-30% over the last 1.5 years.

Like you always say, the fundamentals aren’t there.

Good thing for the stock market the printing presses are running full tilt.

Those companies are heavily real estate-related. This is a surprise? — Garth

#131 Uwinsome on 10.23.12 at 4:38 pm

Most realtors are resistant to admitting that a downward correction is coming.

Many financial advisors are equally resistant to recognize that there are major economic headwinds and can’t acknowledge a slow down is distinct possibility.

#132 dv8 on 10.23.12 at 4:43 pm

RE:#81 house burden on 10.23.12 at 10:26 am

Garth if Canada start to devalue it’s currency what investment would you suggest?

It won’t. — Garth

With all due respects isn’t Bank of Canada overnight rate set at 1% which is below CPI (which is a bogus#)
kind of doing that already ?
When the economy is healthy the Bank of Canada lending rate has always been higher than core CPI but its not healthy so cheap money is the only way to show GDP thus devalue the currency .Cheap money always devalues currency put another way if I am the only one in canada with a Lamborghini then my car is valuable but if all my neighbours have one my becomes less valuable

#133 BillyBob on 10.23.12 at 4:51 pm

@#118 aka D.A., the realtor troll,

The truth is not determined by how many people believe something. In fact, I would submit that in general, the majority of people get it wrong. But then, my opinion is simply based on anecdotal observations that most of humanity is a giant waste of oxygen, incapable of critical thought.

But when I start hearing that statistics are what define reality, my BS-meter goes crazy…and stats from a realtor, well, that’s like a variation of the old joke about knowing when someone’s lying, their lips are moving…I read that realtors rated lower than lawyers and used car salesmen in trustworthiness. A dubious honour.

#134 jess on 10.23.12 at 4:52 pm

Published on Oct 18, 2012 by WhyPoverty

STEALING AFRICA: How much profit is fair?

Rüschlikon is a village in Switzerland with a very low tax rate and very wealthy residents. But it receives more tax revenue than it can use. This is largely thanks to one resident – Ivan Glasenberg, CEO of Glencore, whose copper mines in Zambia are not generating a large bounty tax revenue for the Zambians. Zambia has the 3rd largest copper reserves in the world, but 60% of the population live on less than $1 a day and 80% are unemployed. Based on original research into public documents, the film describes the tax system employed by multinational companies in Africa.

Director Christoffer Guldbrandsen
Producer Henrik Veileborg
Produced by Guld­brandsen Film

Why Poverty?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFgurguhLsA&feature=player_embedded

#135 dv8 on 10.23.12 at 4:52 pm

I do understand that people are broke and nobody has liquidity but the fact remains that all the money that is printed is sitting at central banks in reserves that isnt being lended out why would they, they can by bonds because they know money will be printed to pay them on the bonds and when that market implodes then the money will search for capitol elsewhere such as commodities like food and energy which will always be in demand

#136 Devore on 10.23.12 at 4:58 pm

You guys remember Philip Chan, guys, right? This Philip Chan? The realtor brought in by CBC for their story to flog his Vancouver flip in the guise of a real estate expert? The “this is a unique property, how much can it drop?” Philip Chan? 10-12% he proclaims. If you can afford to buy now, you should do it, says Chan. Well, it’s now down 25% from original price, and they’ll throw in a brand new car.

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V969843

#137 jess on 10.23.12 at 5:05 pm

how come mittsky doesn’t mention this

serco group
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaytzykSQzk&feature=related

#138 dosouth on 10.23.12 at 5:07 pm

#118-AKA DA – 11% year over year increase. Yeah like the OMREB is a real plethora of honesty.

This group is the only REboard in B.C. that takes up to 10 days to post monthly stats and graphs. When I was actively involved in real estate in the Okanagan and called about this I was told, “It takes time to create this data…(sic)” – twice, like they had a sheet in front of them to speak from.

Like with the BCREB –
http://www.recbc.ca/complaints/discipline.html

In September alone 3/9 ‘settled’ disciplinary actions for the whole province were in the OMREB area.

Again, like most of your posts – smoke and mirrors.

Enjoy reading your posts, if for nothing else then entertainment.

#139 Old Man on 10.23.12 at 5:08 pm

This is Garth’s big night with thousands coming, and he will have the Amazon babes there in full force for protection, so do not get ideas, as all will be orderly. I know for a fact that the hot babes will get the front row seats, as that is a given, but for the others coming from the bar you will be placed at the back with the Real Estate guys. Garth have a great seminar, as it will be a great event for all; hope you enjoy my humour.

#140 Form Man on 10.23.12 at 5:10 pm

#119 DA

sales are up slightly, prices are down significantly………

#141 Victoria on 10.23.12 at 5:17 pm

I am just looking at the private client listing service I get from my RE agent.

At least three times a day homes $1,000,000 plus come on the market. Just now a house came on $10,000,000.

So again why are these people selling? En Masse? I know there are divorces, death etc. but many of the high end homes just keep coming – one after another. This is Victoria. Just wondering why.

#142 Devore on 10.23.12 at 5:47 pm

Here it is on VancouverPriceDrop blog, as of Oct 1 (#9 spot):

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/vancouver-west-spotlight-october-1-2012/

Notice the number of open houses. This is time spent not selling his customers’ houses. Not a realtor I would list with, knowing his #1 priority by far is unloading his own mortgage disaster.

Also another common trend we see it the constant relisting on price drops. According to DA, this is part of marketing to other realtors, who are to dumb to look at a map of red dots on mls.ca like everyone else does, to see listings matching a certain criteria, and not at all an attempt to hide price drops and dressing up the listing to look fresh and appealing.

#143 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 5:48 pm

#123 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.23.12 at 3:23 pm

There are too many variables on either side that you and I would take exception with to venture into that debate.

Bottom line most EVERYONE I know of who bought a home ten to twenty years ago is WAY ahead of every other I know who stayed a renter for that time. Plus the national statistics, if you take the time to research them for yourself, I am quite sure will prove that homeowners are indisputably of substantially higher average net worth than renters. Of course you are free to believe the whole free world is about to incur some socio-economic transformation through which that historical trend will no longer prove so in the future. And you may be right, but I would suggest that in that event you will likely have a whole hell of a lot more to worry about than if renting makes more economic sense than buying. Time will tell.

Best of luck to you…

#144 jess on 10.23.12 at 5:57 pm

what some will do do win

The Ottawa County Board of Elections sent a mailer to three precincts last week referring to Election Day as Nov. 8, instead of Nov. 6, and said their new voting place was in a building on the east side of the high school rather than on its west side.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/22/error-filled-instructions-are-sent-to-ohio-voters/

#145 Timbo on 10.23.12 at 6:14 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/us-usa-corporate-results-idUSBRE89M0WU20121023

“Though not all of the cuts would come in the United States, more waves of pink slips would not be good news for Democratic President Barack Obama, who is locked in a tight re-election battle with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, who has criticized Obama’s handling of the economy.”

keep cutting back and there will be no one left to buy..

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec12/makingsense_10-16.html

“DONALD BARLETT, Co-Author, “The Betrayal of the American Dream”: The “Advertising Age” has written off the middle class in this country. They say the age of mass affluence is over. And now you’re going to have to learn to cater to the super rich and the affluent in other countries, because the middle class in China, Brazil, India, that’s the source of the coming wealth, not the U.S. middle class.”

Thank god we are safe here in Canada, right?!…..

#146 squidly77 on 10.23.12 at 6:19 pm

#115 Regan on 10.23.12 at 2:35 pm

Ask yourself – where does wealth come from? What is wealth, really? How well do we, as a society, generate it?

Easy answer, hard work, dicipline and sacrifice. Not from flipping real estate.

#147 smartalox on 10.23.12 at 6:23 pm

@GTA Engineer:

3M on sale? DuPont on Sale? United Technologies on SALE?!? If you’re an engineer? Do you ever use any of these companies’ products? Yes you do. You also use products that contain these companies’ products.

You know that old saying “Buy low… Sell high”? Guess which one this is…

#148 jess on 10.23.12 at 6:42 pm

deferments and deferrals :supporting something but not participating in especally taxes and war

pro-draft mitt romney featured in this 1966 photo

http://truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/item/17591-mitt-romney-avoided-military-service-while-he-supported-vietnam-war-and-draft

#149 dt on 10.23.12 at 6:53 pm

@ oldman #139 no hot amazons in the front row. can’t believe we lined up for mousepads but hey i could use some new ones. thanks, iShares. Garth is at the podium. looking forward to some laughs and some knowledge.

#150 Spiltbongwater on 10.23.12 at 7:00 pm

#142 Devore on 10.23.12 at 5:47 pm

But you get a brand new Fiat 500 if you buy it. Who would not go for that?

#151 Old Man on 10.23.12 at 7:24 pm

#146 squidly77 – I agree with you as your major premise is correct, but the real wealth comes out of the entertainment business with song writing, movies, tv, and production companies, playrights, and those who make records to sing for a living. I know a man personally in NYC that wrote a play which involves two old people on a stage in a nursing home, and it is called royalties, as such for decades is in demand all over the world, so he sits back making $millons which is called ” The Gin Game. “

#152 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 7:30 pm

#131Uwinsome on 10.23.12 at 4:38 pm
Most realtors are resistant to admitting that a downward correction is coming.

When are you going to realize most REALTORS® could give a rats ass if a correction were to happen. Fact is lower prices would lead to more sales. WE WOULD LOVE LOWER PRICES but that just isn’t going to happen as the onslaught of buyers would quickly push them back up again. It would be little more than a “Boxing Day Sale” with no rain checks offered first in wins. Those waiting for yet lower prices lose.

It is what it is. How long have you all been posting this incessant crap that prices are going to be less next year than this. Look back in the archives of this blog and read – it has been the same thing since its inception. How many days of your life are you going to waste away hoping for a better tomorrow? This day is all you’ve got.

If you are a renter suck it up and enjoy. There is more to life than owning a home! If you can afford to buy a home and want to buy a home but are waiting for prices to afford you more home for less money you are wasting your life away with each minute you do so. Trust me your friends will come over whether you have laminate or granite, hardwood or linoleum, stainless or porcelain. They who won’t aren’t your friends anyway.

If you desperately want a home but can’t afford one figure out a way to make yourself more valuable to the marketplace that it pays you more than you are currently earning so you can buy it instead of wishing and hoping for an economic calamity that brings the economy down to your level – Do you have any idea how stupid a plan that sounds?

Stop wasting your life hoping for something that may never come. Live your life enjoying what is – that which you may be taking for granted that will one day be no more.

http://youtu.be/h1tY83PKwjc

#153 45north on 10.23.12 at 7:31 pm

Timbo: They say the age of mass affluence is over. And now you’re going to have to learn to cater to the super rich and the affluent in other countries, because the middle class in China, Brazil, India, that’s the source of the coming wealth, not the U.S. middle class.”

Thank god we are safe here in Canada, right?!…..

pretty funny

#154 GTA Engineer on 10.23.12 at 7:34 pm

#107 Bottoms_up

#95 GTA Engineer on 10.23.12 at 12:02 pm
———————————————
The stock ‘GE’ has been known to be a bellwether (or at least to reflect) the state of the economy. Notice that it is doing just fine.

—-

Bellwethers are interesting things – they’re accurate, until they’re not. One stock is not an indicator of the economy’s health in general. That’s why we have indices like the S&P500 and TSX.

By the way, did you notice GE’s Q3 results fell $600 million short of expectations? Also, that GE fell 2% with the rest of the market today? It might be doing better than many other companies out there, but again – we can’t use a single company (GE), a single commodity (copper), a single index (Baltic Dry), or any other indicator as the sole sign of economic health.

#155 GTA Engineer on 10.23.12 at 7:38 pm

#147 smartalox on 10.23.12 at 6:23 pm
@GTA Engineer:

3M on sale? DuPont on Sale? United Technologies on SALE?!? If you’re an engineer? Do you ever use any of these companies’ products? Yes you do. You also use products that contain these companies’ products.

You know that old saying “Buy low… Sell high”? Guess which one this is…

————–

How much I personally use a product is irrelevant. Are the company’s revenues and earnings rising or falling? exceeding or falling short of guidance and expectations? I agree as these companies fall that there will be buying opportunities; however, we’re not there yet. The market is juiced on QE3, and election optimism. And we’re still early into Q3 earnings season. Yes I will be buying – though not individual stocks (rather leveraged index ETFs), and not yet – the best sales are yet to come!

#156 ccen on 10.23.12 at 7:38 pm

understanding of bubbles including Real Estate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4zOAHoncF0

#157 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.23.12 at 7:41 pm


Good to be back. It was interesting trying a few days of this. Apparently, sheeple do swim naked (Buffett was right), and no, seeing Satan naked was not one of the highlights of our trip. Never mind.
*
IMF’s epic plan “The IMF has the right idea, but I will believe it when I see it. After all, every US President who went up against the private bankers got shot at.” wrh.com; 7 out of 10 Asian countries now use the Yuan, not the US$; Germany Repatriating some its gold (to pay Greece off?), Germany denied access, Armenia Did the banking cartels steal six tons of gold? Plus Gold Mania is like Biebermania and US Mint selling much more silver than gold; The Untouchables Lance Armstrong? No. Central bankers? No; Sabotage Can someone say CIA – Mossad? I knew you could! Savage Austerity“It is not enough that we are rich, but that everyone else must be poor!” — Gold in my Sacks (wrh.com).
*
EUSSR in one poster; Romney’s rigged elections. That’s how dubya got in twice; 13:03 clip Anti-war protests in Turkey; GW Yes, it’s here to stay. Not; Home Invasions Do they lead to vigilante justice? Lebanon The next war; China – India US The US is doing what it does so well.

#158 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 7:44 pm

#140Form Man on 10.23.12 at 5:10 pm
#119 DA

sales are up slightly, prices are down significantly………

You don’t know shit Form Man. I don’t expect any of you to believe me but the average Central Okanagan strata sales price thus far this year is $288,175 where for the same period last year it was $294,614. A 2.19% drop in average price – Woopdie efin doo!
And for 2010 it was $296,481
And for 2009 it was $295,764

OH THE HORROR. We are doomed.

Those who don’t believe me… great, good for you. What I posted is FACT. You can believe what you want to believe.

#159 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.23.12 at 7:44 pm


Good to be back. It was interesting trying a few days of this. Apparently, sheeple do swim naked (Buffett was right), and no, seeing Satan naked was not one of the highlights of our trip. Never mind.
*
IMF’s epic plan “The IMF has the right idea, but I will believe it when I see it. After all, every US President who went up against the private bankers got shot at.” wrh.com; 7 out of 10 Asian countries now use the Yuan, not the US$; Germany Repatriating some its gold (to pay Greece off?), Germany denied access, Armenia Did the banking cartels steal six tons of gold? Plus Gold Mania is like Biebermania and US Mint selling much more silver than gold; The Untouchables Lance Armstrong? No. Central bankers? No; Sabotage Can someone say CIA – Mossad? I knew you could! Savage Austerity“It is not enough that we are rich, but that everyone else must be poor!” — Gold in my Sacks (wrh.com).
*
EUSSR in one poster;
Romney’s rigged elections. That’s how dubya got in twice; 13:03 clip Anti-war protests in Turkey; GW Yes, it’s here to stay. Not; Home Invasions Do they lead to vigilante justice? Lebanon The next war; China – India US The US is doing what it does so well.

#160 patiently waiting on 10.23.12 at 7:46 pm

# 42 Bob
To Steve the real estate appraiser… don’t feel bad at all… not one bit. There are a lot, possibly even more people who rent and wait their turn to buy. These people you give the truth have lived beyond their means, are participants of increasing real-estate values to insane values for YEARS. So for each one who is forced to sell, we hope a patient renter takes their place.
—————————————————————–

I agree, while they are the minority, there are plenty of people who have not lived high on the hog who will benefit because they lived within their means. While we are still early in this real estate correction, I see opportunities starting to open up every day.

Here is one: MLS F1217451 (3283 164A Street, Surrey). Originally listed around 1.8 mil, it has been reduced several times, and now has been taken over by the bank who reduced the price to $1,279,000. The property has 2 mortgages 1) $1,150,000 at prime plus 5%, and 2) 2nd Mortgage of $220,000 at 14% – and no that is not a typo.

Good things come to those who wait . . .

pw

#161 Timbo on 10.23.12 at 7:49 pm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2222170/The-ending-mortgage-drought-New-crackdown-make-tough-lending-rules-permanent-feature-millions.html

“As a typical mortgage is for 25 years, this will create problems for people currently in their 50s. For example, a person who is 55 will struggle to get a 25-year loan because it would not be paid off until they were 80.

David Hollingworth, from the mortgage advisers London & Country, said banks and building societies are already clamping down ahead of the FSA’s ‘Mortgage Market Review’.

He said: ‘Nearly all lenders will say: “If you want this mortgage, you must have repaid it by the time you are 75, or even 70”.’

Tighter mortgage conditions? Housing boom redux…..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9627188/Debt-crisis-as-it-happened-October-23-2012.html

“Moody’s downgrade of five regions in Spain triggered concerns about the slowing global economy.”

Concerns today, panic tomorrow……

#162 dv8 on 10.23.12 at 7:50 pm

RE: #142 Devore on 10.23.12 at 5:47 pm

all I can say is WOW blew my mind its worst than I thought
Great site
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/vancouver-west-spotlight-october-1-2012/

#163 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 7:50 pm

And Form Man, price, invariably, follows volume up or down. By your own admission sales are up. Where do you think prices will be given the typical six months delay that prices lag behind volume? That’d be the heat of this coming springs market. Shall we compare notes at that time? I’ll enter it in my calendar for… let’s say; April 23, 2013, 7:30am on this Blog.

#164 Smoking Man on 10.23.12 at 8:07 pm

U boared the shit out of my son he left im hear .

Have a deeper voice

#165 Form Man on 10.23.12 at 8:23 pm

#143 DA

I agree that most people who buy instead of rent end up better off. A mortgage is a forced savings plan. The reality is most people have no self-discipline when it comes to saving or investing. If the average renter invested the savings from renting over owning, he would likely be just as well off as the homeowner, if not better off.

The point I am trying to make is that housing was turned into a casino, where people were led to believe they needn’t be responsible………… houses would make them rich even while they spent the equity like drunken sailors ( my apologies to teetotalling mariners )

Easy credit and low interest rates caused prices to rise too high and too much product created. Canada is not the only country to suffer this calamity, but since we chose to ignore the lessons of others who went before, we truly win the prize for being the greatest idiots of all. ( actually that honour is a toss-up between Jim
Flaherty and westernman)

#166 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.23.12 at 8:38 pm

#143 };-) aka D.A.,

Bro’…i’m with you. Owning makes more sense at all times except when prices and / or interest rates are “high”. Whatever “high” means.

I’m trying to lend you a hand with your pitch.

You said you have no properly motivated sellers, and more or less the same number of motivated buyers.

It’s your pitch, it’s tired. Moral suasion…are you kidding me bud?

You think anyone really believes it when they’re at the car dealership and they’re told “…buy now before we’re sold out”?

Today, marks are savvy and cynical. Your shtick won’t get traction with that type of chump.

#167 Victoria on 10.23.12 at 8:48 pm

Timbo,

No actually it is not Canada that is safe it is Victoria that is safe from everything. See we are an island …..

#168 drydock on 10.24.12 at 5:31 am

Uh oh , hypno pooch is back.

#169 disciple on 10.24.12 at 1:41 pm

#52 dv8… There is very little cocoa in a Mars bar, 0.05% maybe? The rest is pure crap your body doesn’t need. You wouldn’t like real chocolate…

#69 phinny… What do you think is in cough medicine? You need to lay off the anti-depressants, man…

Mitt Romney is wearing a latex mask on his face. The actor is Richard Jenkins. Look it up…

#170 TurnerNation on 10.24.12 at 7:35 pm

#135jess

…And that why most charities for overseas aid are scams/fronts.

Boom – right here:

“Zambia has the 3rd largest copper reserves in the world, but 60% of the population live on less than $1 a day and 80% are unemployed”

Mutlinationals ensalved those countries. Private armies and paid-for leaders run the show.

#171 Seller on 10.24.12 at 8:01 pm

@ Mortgage appraiser

Great story, thanks for sharing.

Why don’t you consider becoming a trustee in bankruptcy. It’s just a three year course and you can probably find a job to work while you take the course, because Vancouver bankruptcy professionals are working flat out right now.

#172 Mr Buyer on 10.24.12 at 10:43 pm

#164 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 7:50 pm
And Form Man, price, invariably, follows volume up or down. By your own admission sales are up. Where do you think prices will be given the typical six months delay that prices lag behind volume? That’d be the heat of this coming springs market. Shall we compare notes at that time? I’ll enter it in my calendar for… let’s say; April 23, 2013, 7:30am on this Blog.
……………………………………………………………..
I will be here. Sales are not up. You are doing the old propaganda thing again.

#173 Mr Buyer on 10.24.12 at 10:54 pm

#88 };-) aka D.A. on 10.23.12 at 11:20 am
Imagine a housing economy in which only Garth and The Blog Dawgs set the tone with no counterpoint offered by another…
………………………………………………………
Imagine a housing economy in which all data was readily available and truly informed buyers could make sound descisions

#174 Mr Buyer on 10.24.12 at 11:01 pm

#76 Old Dad on 10.23.12 at 10:00 am
phinny on 10.23.12 at 9:32 am

It was a premature celebration, and last night had me re-thinking whether it really, truly is so bad to give a baby a 1/4 oz of scotch when the wife isn’t looking, to put him to sleep.

A good scotch, of course…
……………………………………………………
I would suggest a little stoicism and gutting it out. The child will be like this for a relatively short period of time (I have 3). It has been a while since I have felt reflexive anger like I did while reading your post. While I am guessing you are joking it took me a few moments to arrive at that realization. I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and refrain from deriding you.