Seasonally-adjusted

The headline on the Global Edmonton news story read, “Canadian housing sales up in September.” The rest of the piece, supplied by Canadian Press, said:

“OTTAWA – Despite a slight recovery from August, home sales in September fell 15.1 per cent from a year ago due to tighter mortgage lending rules and an uncertain economy, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.”

Huh? So, were sales up? Or were they down? Well, both, actually.

“The association said sales in September were up 2.5 per cent from August – the first month-to-month gain since March.”

If you’re confused by sales being down 15.1%, which of course means there was a 2.5% increase in August, then the nation’s realtors have done their job. They sure managed to diddle with Global’s headline-writer, who likely bought a condo in Edmonton with 5% down which she borrowed from mom.

As this pathetic and likely catatonic blog has recently documented, real estate deals almost everywhere are in trouble. Toronto sales plopped 20.5% last month and are weaker by 10.5% so far this month. GTA condo sales crashed 20% in the third quarter. Vancouver sales dumped by a third in September. Victoria down 8%, Edmonton off 12%, Hamilton lower 19.7%, all of Nova Scotia weaker by 13%. I could go on, but you get it.

By the realtors’ own admission (and real estate board stats), more than half of all the markets in Canada saw sales drop by at least 10% in September. That has not happened since the financial crash of 2008-9. But on the planet where CREA lives, that was good news. All you need to do is add a little secret sauce, called ‘seasonally adjusted.’

So, a 15.1% year-over-year sales drop across Canada, seasonally adjusted, becomes a 2.5% jump. A month-over-month crash of 8.1% in poor Vancouver turns into a healthy increase of 4.2%. An erosion in most major markets from August to September morphs into an advance in 60% of the nation (including Toronto, where sales fell 21%). In fact, the worst country-wide decline in four years becomes “the first month-to-month gain  since March.”

Combine all this with the Frankenumber MLS Home Price Index (which shot higher by 4%), and you can see why moist young virgins, television broadcasters and even a few cocker spaniels think real estate’s still hot.

Meanwhile, here’s an interesting passage from the Toronto Star this week, more closely depicting reality and giving us another example of a rare realtor with integrity – or at least balls.

“Veteran Mississauga realtor Mike Donia has been through two housing downturns and he’s been seeing the same telltale signs across the GTA since May. Inquiries to his office from buyers are down at least 65 per cent, bidding wars are going bust and he’s seeing a growing number of power of sale properties — including a $13.9 million Bridle Path mansion — popping up on the MLS.

At the same time, he’s got over a dozen clients trying to get out of pre-construction condo deals penned more than a year ago because they now find themselves overextended and fearful the condo boom is about to go bust.

“My geiger counter has been going off for four or five months now,” says the 25-year veteran of the GTA real estate business. “I can’t tell you when the epicentre of the earthquake is going to hit, but the picture on my wall is shaking.”

New house sales in the six-million-person GTA have dropped by 65%, while the resale market saw a 20% reduction in the last three months. There are enough houses for sale in the once-hot Vancouver satellite city of Richmond to last into 2015. Canadian household debt has just achieved new record levels. In fact, it’s about where the US housing market exploded in 2005-6.

Sorry. Correction. The American market didn’t blow up. First deals tanked. For example, new home sales in the US fell 39.5% between 2005 and 2007. But prices rose 13% during that same period of time (a phenomenon I have written about here often, which realtors now try to use as proof the market is stable). Investors who bought into that ‘rising, healthy market’ were soon slaughtered. New home prices crashed 24%, and failed to touch bottom until four years later. Resales collapsed by 32% – a decline the National Association of Realtors failed to warn consumers about.

As US prices began their final cascade, NAR’s chief economist, David Lereah, said: “The steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation…despite all the wild projections by academics, Wall Street analysts, and others in the media.”

It should be self-evident what is happening around you, and what threatens to happen.

But for once it would inspire to see a professional, expert body serve the people, not itself. Sadly, it’s not different here.

191 comments ↓

#1 Mike on 10.16.12 at 8:17 pm

Haha, great pictures.
We will soon see lots of naked bottoms in Vancouver of people going bankrupt!

#2 Randy on 10.16.12 at 8:19 pm

Is Carney a hand-puppet for Ben Bernanke ??

#3 Tim on 10.16.12 at 8:20 pm

People on the west coast I talk to still seem to think that because the excess inventory hasn’t caused a corresponding significant major drop in prices that this is a temporary blip and that real estate will always go up. It will be interesting to see when we actually do get major price drops across the board, as opposed to a small number of properties falling significantly.

#4 mek on 10.16.12 at 8:21 pm

but it’s different here

#5 Ken R on 10.16.12 at 8:22 pm

Early post tonight Garth, but a good one, as expected.

#6 tow mater on 10.16.12 at 8:23 pm

All this is happening and the general public is still in the dark.

#7 claudius emperor on 10.16.12 at 8:24 pm

ha ha ha…

#8 Jeff on 10.16.12 at 8:26 pm

Nice pic !!

#9 Canadian Watchdog on 10.16.12 at 8:32 pm

#6 tow mater

“All this is happening and the general public is still in the dark.”

You might not believe it but more then 50% still believe home prices are going up and would recommend buying a home as a safe investment. What’s discussed on this blog is about six to twelve months ahead of the general public.

Sheesh. I should charge more to get in here. — Garth

#10 Nemesis on 10.16.12 at 8:35 pm

Indubitably, OldPol. You can FreezeDry them…. Shellac them and polish those ‘stats’ all you like… But, underneath the ‘cosmetics’… as any Gastoenterologist could tell ya… Never mind. But the expression, “fecal urgency” does suggest itself.

#11 Regan on 10.16.12 at 8:40 pm

The fall market sure has picked up – my neighbour’s house has finally sold. After 120 days on market. At a $100,000 discount from the original asking price. Yup, the fall market is roaring here in Toronto!

#12 Old Man on 10.16.12 at 8:43 pm

I am shocked that the msm would do a spin on stats that will not square with the real world, so is the Ministry of Truth messing with my mind?

#13 Ronaldo on 10.16.12 at 8:50 pm

A message to the real estate industry and the media.

“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” –
— Abraham Lincoln

#14 Smoking Man on 10.16.12 at 8:51 pm

#9 Canadian watchdog

Go to union station at 12::30 Look at the tv for lake shore west

Tv says platform 6 just one way up zillions of people walk up to platform 5 and behold all the people on 6 are the ones that think real estate will go
up.

And it will cause more of them than you

#15 Frank on 10.16.12 at 8:55 pm

Wow, it is finally happening. I wish it could have been avoided, you tried Garth.

#16 TurnerNation on 10.16.12 at 8:55 pm

Who wants to dress up as The FrankenNumber for Halloween?

Most likely “The Gartho” will be a popular choice of young ‘uns in Markham, Mimico, and the Beaches.

Imagine Junior decked out in pint-sized cowboy boots, yellow tie, with a magic-marker-beard for the occasion.
Visiting for-sale houses and telling the owners their abodes will soon be reduced in price, and “this will not end well”. Shrieks of terror will echo across the zero lot lines.

#17 A_Pedant on 10.16.12 at 8:58 pm

Someone tell that real estate agent that Geiger counters measure radioactivity, not seismic activity.

I guess there’s no “science” section on the real estate agent tests…

#18 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.16.12 at 8:59 pm

realtors hate the facts an truth and they come here to kick and scream. Realtors hate garth and we all know why. Many Realtors are true scum of the earth.

#19 Not 1st on 10.16.12 at 8:59 pm

Thats all fine and dandy but what the hell happened in Calgary? Sales and prices up 19%??

CREB says that YTD the average price is higher by 2.74%. — Garth

#20 Imprisoned In Parksville on 10.16.12 at 9:05 pm

When people on here say “F”, what does that mean? I’ve been reading this blog for about 4 months and still don’t know.

#21 happy renter on 10.16.12 at 9:05 pm

New home sales are booming in Victoria.At west hills a suburb of Victoria the trades men are tripping over each other.Thousands of houses are houses are being built over the next few years.No slow down here,homes priced fom $400,000 to $600,000 so I guess its still affordable for the average family.

#22 prairieperson on 10.16.12 at 9:06 pm

I hate to say it Garth but The Driftwood, a Salt Spring Island paper disagrees with your assessment of the market. Their front page banner advertises Li Read, realtor. The banner on the business page is also by Li Read, realtor. However, that means an opinion from the horses mouth.
by Tom Narkatil
“Salt Spring real estate market shows strength”
“The average sale price of non-waterfront single family dwelling (SFD) rose for the third consecutive quarter on Salt Spring Island; it currently stands at $520,873, up 8.7% from 2011.
“Compared to peak sale prices in 2008, however it is still down by 19.7 percent…The September median price in the SFD sector was 490,000 (up from $452,000 in September 2011).”
The writer points out (and I’m not sure if this is a quote or his own writing) that “Such reports often originate from utterings of some real estate person such as Robert Sheller (sp?) in California”
“Nationally, CREA…reports the housing market remaining “firmly in balanced territory”.
So there you have it. Prices are going up. Statements about a housing crash are being made by people in distant places who don’t know anything.
The writer doesn’t mention this blog. Someone should send the link. It would be someone else to blame.

#23 bruce on 10.16.12 at 9:06 pm

the bottom line is – we arrive with nothing and we leave with nothing – and as we live our lives – everybody wants a piece of the pie we create, e.g. realtors, mortgage brokers, financial planners etc. etc.

#24 Inglorious Investor on 10.16.12 at 9:08 pm

“Sadly, it’s not different here.”

You mean Canadians really aren’t smarter than Americans? I’m shocked. Shocked!

#25 Inglorious Investor on 10.16.12 at 9:14 pm

“[…] you can come up with statistics to prove anything, […] Forty percent of all people know that.”

-Homer Simpson

#26 furst on 10.16.12 at 9:24 pm

This blog is purdy….FUUURRRSSSTTTT!!!!!

#27 2centsCdn on 10.16.12 at 9:26 pm

Pump pump pump ….. more smoke! ……. more mirrors! … they’re on to us … we gotta keep this thing alive!!! ….. Ignore that man behind the curtain. The real estate industry has learned the art of bamboozlement! They’re much more organized and in control of the media than the early 90’s crash. Sneaky buggers. The ignorant don’t stand a chance.

#28 Canadian Watchdog on 10.16.12 at 9:27 pm

#14 Smoking Man

“Go to union station at 12::30 Look at the tv for lake shore west

Tv says platform 6 just one way up zillions of people walk up to platform 5 and behold all the people on 6 are the ones that think real estate will go
up.”

——

Go to 66 Wellington Street at 9:00am, up to TD’s trading floor and look at the terminal with subprime and mezzanine portfolios, while keeping in mind there is only $37.6B in insurance remaining to secure every competitors unsold tranches. Then look out the window to union station were zillions of people walk and behold, those who think real estate prices will go up are now at risk and uninsurable.

#29 Ronaldo on 10.16.12 at 9:35 pm

“THE LYING GAME How to survive it”

http://www.jenman.com.au/news_article.php?id=254

#30 Tim on 10.16.12 at 9:42 pm

Canada Not for Sale:

http://www.leadnow.ca/canada-not-for-sale?t=te

Tell our neo-con PM that Canada is not for sale. In two weeks Harper could weasel through a bill which could be the most sweeping trade deal of a century, giving the Chinese the right to sue our government if we infringe on their ability to make a profit in Canada.

#31 Max Torque on 10.16.12 at 9:44 pm

A little rant on housing bubbles…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-2JwlLPCIA

#32 darcy on 10.16.12 at 9:45 pm

Hi all, I’m a middle aged guy with about 70k in assets and a public service pension in about 8 yrs. the total of my financial life following a divorce. I would love advice on how to achieve the results that are talked about here. I have done ok investing on my own and with my limited net worth can’t find a fee based advisor who thinks i have enough money to justify using their services.

I have been educating myself as much as i can. the result of that is that i feel like my gains have largely the result of a raising market and luck nothing to do with my “expertise”. :)

Any personal stories of how you gained your investing knowledge or good books or courses.

thanks

#33 young & foolish on 10.16.12 at 9:47 pm

What will happen to our economy is this slowdown results in 25% price reductions? People have already fallen behind , and now will just have to add more empty debt on their backs. Contraction, and perhaps deflation ahead … our version of “austerity”.

#34 Cowpie on 10.16.12 at 9:48 pm

Friend told me today that she was late making a payment 6 months ago and now can’t get a mortgage for a $250K house without $27K (downpayment and cash in the bank). Mortgage broker won’t even look at this couple of first time homebuyers (both work full time professionals). THEY ARE IN SHOCK.

#35 Cow Man on 10.16.12 at 9:53 pm

Amigos:

Seems like Dalton’s next career could be real estate sales. His resume fits the character traits needed.

#36 Mr Buyer on 10.16.12 at 10:03 pm

#27 Canadian Watchdog on 10.16.12 at 9:27 pm
#14 Smoking Man
Go to 66 Wellington Street at 9:00am, up to TD’s trading floor and look at the terminal with subprime and mezzanine portfolios, while keeping in mind there is only $37.6B in insurance remaining to secure every competitors unsold tranches. Then look out the window to union station were zillions of people walk and behold, those who think real estate prices will go up are now at risk and uninsurable.
…………………………………………….
Well done.

#37 ozy - for #19 on 10.16.12 at 10:04 pm

For #19 Imprisoned In Parksville

F is Flateddy, the finance minister of kanata

#38 Old Man on 10.16.12 at 10:06 pm

#19 Imprisoned In Parksville – “F” is a code word for a four lettered name, and we cannot take the Lord’s name in vane, but we all know who he is, and one day you will catch on, so give it a few more months.

#39 Mstgofstr on 10.16.12 at 10:07 pm

Went to the bank to today, that one that keeps telling me I’m richer than I think…..discussed a LOC for an RV purchase. No problem, 5%, blah blah. For fun I asked what we would qualify for mortgage wise. A couple years ago I was able to qualify for approx. 750k. Now? 500. Same $ down and amortization, I asked what gives, she said basically “we’re not as rich as we thought”. Thats with a family income of 150k, car payments and no other debts.

#40 Boombust on 10.16.12 at 10:08 pm

“Tell our neo-con PM that Canada is not for sale. In two weeks Harper could weasel through a bill…”

You don’t say?

His next ploy will be a bill for full Continental Integration with the USA.

After all, he IS the CIA’s top Bureau Chief in Ottawa.

Snake. Can’t stand him.

#41 Devore on 10.16.12 at 10:13 pm

New home prices crashed 24%, and failed to touch bottom until four years later. Resales collapsed by 32% – a decline the National Association of Realtors failed to warn consumers about.

Of course they did. Real estate associations work for realtors, and realtors only make money when people buy and sell houses, regardless of their price or price direction. Doom and gloom doesn’t generate transactions.

Anyone who believes realtors’ fluff deserves to be parted from their money.

#42 Inglorious Investor on 10.16.12 at 10:16 pm

#33 Cowpie on 10.16.12 at 9:48 pm

Your friends are shocked that they actually need money to buy a house? What’s really shocking is how far we, as a spoiled, self-absorbed, patrimonial, money-for-nothing society, have drifted from financial prudence to utter stupidity.

#43 Devore on 10.16.12 at 10:17 pm

But for once it would inspire to see a professional, expert body serve the people, not itself. Sadly, it’s not different here.

Not sad at all, logical. Any “body”, be it real estate associations, or the media, exists to serve the people who pay the bills. It’s silly to expect anything in this situation. The only thing you can demand is platitudes.

Follow the money.

#44 Mike on 10.16.12 at 10:17 pm

‘Canadian household debt has just achieved new record levels’

I could be wrong, but I think the reports I read stated that the debt vs disposable income stats were simply under reported. Like…they were leaving things out of the equation and it’s really been that high the whole time.

If true, this would lead me to conclude that today, October 16, the 163% number is probably still too low.

It’s probably worse than even WE think.

#45 TRT on 10.16.12 at 10:19 pm

#3 Tim

You are level headed and not affected by emotion. Sure sales have gone down but I haven’t seen any price pressure in my neighborhood. In fact, Sales are on pace to smash September’s numbers. You may want to visit other blogs where the general consensus is that January will tell how this unfolds.

Inventory headed lower today. Nothing happening until the new year now. However, those with equities…learn about fiscal cliff and psychology.

#46 Whiny on 10.16.12 at 10:20 pm

Garth,

Do you see this blog continuing in a real estate direction? I’ve been visiting for some time and I found that your post yesterday fulfilled my “diversified” interest more than just r/e – not because I find the topic boring, but mostly because you’re clearly capable of much more.

Thanks man.

You have no idea what I’m capable of. — Garth

#47 2centsCdn on 10.16.12 at 10:24 pm

#30 Max Torque,
Toooo funny. Very well done whoever put that together.

#48 GTA Girl on 10.16.12 at 10:35 pm

Friend is divorcing, she is putting her Woodbridge home for sale through the self-listing service on MLS. The company gave her a breakdown of homes sold in her area in last 6 mos and what is currently on the market.

People, they are all insane.

These are builders homes, built in the last 3 years. Roughly 2,500 sqft each, on 40×120 ft lots, with 6ft between homes. No sidewalks. Subdivision stretches from Weston to Pine Valley, between Major Mac to Rutherford. Enormous populated.

Homes have been selling from $820k to $1mill. Original price 3 yrs ago was $750k.

There is nothing special about these homes, other than they are new. There are other similar types of homes in Vaughan in other areas that are selling for almost $650k
( which is still too high).

Most of the people living here are labourers, construction trades, regular Joes. The common denominator is that many are 2/3rd generation Italian, Portugese, Spanish. The builders targeted this demographic because many had parents with down payments at the wedding. Many of these couples are late 20’s early 30’s. almost all are in the construction business or offshoots.

It’s a perfect storm. This is one of those areas that Garth mentions that will take a big hit. Poorly built builders homes ( I hear the complaints) sold to spoiled kids of saver-parents. All because no one wanted a resale home where someone else’s bum had touched a toilet seat.

Yet, across Major Mac is huge acreage of farmers fields being ripped up for more homes, mostly semis/towns asking $700k. All with more young couples.

10 years ago I thought paying $500k for a home was insane. And I had a decent wage. I don’t see how these people are juggling it.

#49 Canadian Watchdog on 10.16.12 at 10:42 pm

For those always wondering what really drives real estate, here it is.

All it takes is one clog in the liability pipeline and it’s game over.

#50 Ronaldo on 10.16.12 at 10:43 pm

#31 Darcy – this is a great magazine to start your journey with. One of the best investments I have ever made (except for Garths book of course).

http://www.canadianmoneysaver.ca/

You might also want to check out this site.

http://www.investors-aid.coop/

This is a great site for checking up on the stock market and lots of other educational tools.

http://www.tmxmoney.com/

I’m sure a lot of the other blog dogs can help you out as well. So much to learn.

#51 Steven Rowlandson on 10.16.12 at 10:44 pm

Falling sales might be a step in the right direction but what we need to see is a 90% plus discount in house prices in order to restore sanity to the housing market.

As for needing a geiger counter that is something every one needs these days as the country most likely is contaminated with nuclear fallout from Fukushima.
The last youtube video I saw on thelonewolfottawa channel indicated almost 21 times the annual safe limit.
Are canadian homes nuclear waste and worth nothing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s0KROgab10&feature=plcp

#52 Fartweezel on 10.16.12 at 10:53 pm

A friend of mine lives behind Duncan BC in a very good part of town. Amongst all the MDs, lawyers, and professionals lives a former realtor, now a builder. My friend claims this guy is very smart, a realist and also very honest. He asked this guy his thoughts on house prices in their area as they had already taken a 30-35% bath. This guy claims the downward spiral is nowheres near over and would not be surprised if we could get hit for yet another 40%. Any thoughts on this Garth?

#53 Burnaby Boy on 10.16.12 at 10:55 pm

“His next ploy will be a bill for full Continental Integration with the USA.”

Good. With so many Canadians crossing the border to shop and pay their taxes there maybe I’ll now get goods for the same price. And people can’t sell their birthright fast enough whether it is the farmers on the Prairies or some politician sucking up to who knows what.

#54 Wally Wingnut on 10.16.12 at 11:04 pm

#2 randy

Is Mark Carney a puppet of Bernanke of the Fed? Well check out his resume and figure it out for yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney

#55 DON on 10.16.12 at 11:07 pm

@ #44 TRT

Patience…it took years to get to this point, Prices will come down TRT…Prices will come down. It’s not over yet – far from it. It’s like having a bad cold – it always gets worse before it gets better.

We need this correction to correct ‘a way of thinking’ that has made our younger generations cocky and arrogant about their paper gains. This correction will correct people’s opinions and sense of humility and maybe than we can get back to work and correct our society that has gone off the rails.

This is not a blip in real estate, this is the start of the fall to the bottom with even more greater fools jumping off the cliff. The correction is coming and I fear something similar to the 1980’s. It’s a pitty the boomers who experienced the correction back then forgot Lessons learned and even told their children to buy. All around us housing has crashed, but it’s different here because greed makes one delusional.

Come’on use your senses, you can feel it coming. One indicator is the lack of housing talk in the work environment. Nobody is saying a word.

#56 Guy_in_Regina on 10.16.12 at 11:11 pm

Sales in Regina were down 28% in September.

Ouch.

#57 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 10.16.12 at 11:13 pm

Ditch your realtor. When we bought our house in Europe, we got a notary for the whole transaction.
His fees? 2500.00 Euros. Savings? A lot.

#58 Ayn Rand Army on 10.16.12 at 11:19 pm

Love it Garth, and you too!

Enjoy the limy light and twist that knife into the sides of all the G-damn naysayers! Carry yourself with the utmost of pride and absolute righteousness in the face of the coming epic real estate collapse and corollary economic destruction that will ensue.

If anymore is capable of being more pretentious and worthy of it in this country at this moment, it is you… hehe…

Twist the knife and show NO MERCY!

YOU DA MAN!

Buy gold on the pull back!

#59 Sebee on 10.16.12 at 11:22 pm

#28 Canadian Watchdog

May I just say I enjoyed your retort.

#60 Woodbridge on 10.16.12 at 11:25 pm

Hey GTA girl! Sounds like you are right in my neck of the woods. I live in the “fabulous” subdivision you are speaking about and its mind blowing how much prices have escalated….from phase 1 to 2 our builder pushed up houses by 200K!!!

#61 Cory on 10.16.12 at 11:37 pm

If you read Mike Fotiou’s site in Calgary…Calgary realtor…..it’s ALL about how Calgary is different and bucking national trends. Yet, I watch the MLS daily, same areas, and I don’t see much moving.

DELETED

#62 JW on 10.16.12 at 11:44 pm

Lies, damned lies…. and stastistics. The realtor industry and Global TV can skew and cook the numbers however they want. The market is tapped and the only way is down. I think it’s going to be as impressive on the way down as it was on the way up. Parts of the country are going to be fine, like maybe Flin flon Manitoba, the major cities and specifically Vancouver are going to get screamed.

#63 Mithan on 10.16.12 at 11:46 pm

Today in the leader post:
Regina sales down 30%, ytoy prices up 15%.

Regina has a way to go before crashing I think, but only because it started late.

It does have the highest house price increase over the shortest time in all of Canada.

#64 45north on 10.17.12 at 12:05 am

GTA Girl: Friend is divorcing, she is putting her Woodbridge home for sale

Most of the people living here are labourers, construction trades, regular Joes. The common denominator is that many are 2/3rd generation Italian, Portugese, Spanish.

I remember the 60’s, Woodbridge was still farms. One summer job was in the flooring business. One job was to pour a floor at Mary Miles Meat Packing Plant. The crew was Italian. We had mostly finished the floor when somebody noticed a flaw in the cement. The boss said to ignore it. Without saying a word, one of the workers waded through the freshly poured cement, repaired the flaw and troweled his way back.

#65 No One Of Consequence on 10.17.12 at 12:08 am

Hey Garth…I have been looking closely at the american crash to get hints as to how things might play out here.

Something not often mentioned or talked about is the ongoing weakness in bank revenues.

The assets can devalue…fine. But there is a bigger elephant in the vaults here in Canada….the amount of revenue generated by mortgage. The fees are stupendous.

CIBC is the worst..with over 40% of their revenue coming from fees around mortgages.

US banks are still seeing weakened banks, and losses in revenues of hundreds of millions.

In a way…the revenue side is worse here in Canada. CMHC and the taxpayer will suck up the asset loss…but not the revenue loss!

What will happen to the oft vaunted bank preferreds and dividends once their revenue stream from mortgage fees dries up?

#66 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.17.12 at 12:08 am


“All you need to do is add a little secret sauce, called ‘seasonally adjusted’.” — Made from Dijon mustard, Worcester Sauce, ultra-hot chili peppers, HP Bold and Branston Pickle with cheese for a side, washed down with a pint of Pepsold Abysmol!
*
#30 Tim — “In two weeks Harper could weasel through a bill which could be the most sweeping trade deal of a century, giving the Chinese the right to sue our government if we infringe on their ability to make a profit in Canada.” — Something like this?
*
Thought For The Day: “I believe it is appropriate to have an ‘over-representation’ of the facts on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience.” — Al Gore, Climate Change activist, spouting off on the fraud that is climate change. The climate is always going to change, regardless of what anybody does.
*
Chart showing labor force under Obomba; Romney’s Tax Plan Click the button to find out. Speaking of which — Question: How many US millionaires collect unemployment? 7:12 clip “Epic rant from Keith Olbermann against Vikram Pandit.’; Benefits up, not wages Good and bad sides, ‘tho most would opt for the extra cash; First Time Lucky? Yep. Not a bad haul with a metal detector; Brits. and Cdns debt loads Can anyone say we’re screwed beyond comprehension? I knew you could! Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the richest of them all? Hint: He died 700 years ago, give or take; Looking for work? You’ll have a fight on your hands; US Gulf Coast Why the US is fast becoming a third world country; Gold and Silver Rising / falling, and Comex Silver Default Smoking Man, is this your bag? plus US Gold Deficit; EU Separatists (incl. map) gaining ground; Germany Fiscal overlord, or The Fourth Reich; Colorado’s Working Poor Below the poverty line; UK Nice pension bill for someone else’s bureaucrats.
*
China’s coming dominance will knock the west for six, and The SSA Soros Salvation Army, with China and The Fourth Reich as head honchos; Cancer — The Forbidden Cures; Pomegranite may reverse blocked arteries; Toxic Halliburton “That’s another fine mess you’ve got us into” — Big Dick Cheney; Never Too Old to become a parent; Another version of Hells Grannies? Last orders, please One of the oldest pubs is closing; EU ‘Net Censors Hard at work, protecting us from the reality of life; Electric Universe Theories Stuff happening on one of Saturn’s moons; North West Louisiana Alien invasion? Karma? Seems so. Chimps attack humans.
*
Time for the better half and I to step out of the boring, mundane and ordinary into the unknown and extraordinary, so pack the bags ‘coz we’re Goin’ Down South. Back soon!

#67 Van Isle Renter on 10.17.12 at 12:31 am

Sheesh. I should charge more to get in here. — Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Cheap at twice the price. Which is still $0, but still a deal.

#68 Ex-Cowtown on 10.17.12 at 12:40 am

#61 Cory on 10.16.12 at 11:37 pm

If you read Mike Fotiou’s site in Calgary…Calgary realtor…..it’s ALL about how Calgary is different and bucking national trends. Yet, I watch the MLS daily, same areas, and I don’t see much moving.

DELETED
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I used to follow his site when he posted real #’s. Now he just posts crap that is of no use whatsoever. Haven’t bothered visiting his site in 6 months.

Haven’t missed anything either.

#69 Brad in Cowtown on 10.17.12 at 1:09 am

“Sheesh. I should charge more to get in here. — Garth”

You might as well. Anyone who’s listened to this blog since its inception has lost money.

#70 lookoutbelow on 10.17.12 at 1:25 am

There is absolutely NOTHING in the Mission Statements of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver that is applicable to a Buyer. Here are the five points from their Website:

“The Board upholds five principles intended to advance the interest of Greater Vancouver’s citizens by:

•Protecting property owners
•Ensuring economic vitality
•Providing housing opportunities
•Preserving our environment
•Building better communities”

Apparently, if you are a Buyer of real estate in Vancouver, you are not on their radar. However, if you are a “Property Owner”, the Board wants to “protect” you.

What the HELL does that mean? The other 4 points are grandma’s apple pie!

BUYER BEWARE. According to the Board, if you are a Buyer, then you are somehow not considered a Greater Vancouver “citizen”. Hmmmmmm.

#71 Alberta Ed on 10.17.12 at 1:29 am

“But for once it would inspire to see a professional, expert body serve the people, not itself. Sadly, it’s not different here.”

Sadly, we won’t get that from either CREA or the MSM. But we do have Greater Fool…

#72 Jay Currie on 10.17.12 at 1:49 am

#21 In the leafy Oak Bay neighbourhood of the Dog Walk Index another property SOLD! It had been on the market for 18 months so I can’t imagine it went for the 1.4 asking. Nice house, 150K kitchen.

Meanwhile, across the street 1.1m has become 998K and a little down the hill, 998 has become 969. The 1.1m was on the market for a year at 1.25, then rented, then relisted. The 998 was a fixer upper with BMW drivers as the “owners”.

The agents are keeping the selling prices and the price drops to themselves but my sense is that, at the upper end, the last two years have seen a 20-30% drop.

#73 Tony on 10.17.12 at 1:57 am

Re: #19 Not 1st on 10.16.12 at 8:59 pm

This is what is called an aberration where if enough figures are showed one will be “out of whack”. What you see in Calgary is a one month distortion of the real picture. Fact is Calgary real estate is imploding as we speak and will follow the rest of the country straight down for ages to come.

#74 The end is nigh on 10.17.12 at 2:03 am

As my a.k.a says:
The End is Nigh.
Sell and repent, vile Investors!

#75 Tony on 10.17.12 at 2:12 am

Re: #32 darcy on 10.16.12 at 9:45 pm

Almost all books on investing are a total waste of time because the book is always outdated. Books on chart patterns have some merit because enough lunatics fall for the same stupid thing. If you have enough “connections” you always look where people did the right things and other people did the wrong things and try to surmise if it was a fluke or not in both cases. You have to try to think on your own like when everything implodes in the near future they’re be a massive hit to the downside in gold as they sell the metal to pay debts.

#76 TRT on 10.17.12 at 2:15 am

#55 DON

I can’t feel its coming, I KNOW its coming.

The longer prices stay at these levels, the greater the fall is going to be. So, why not let the bubble grow larger? — The morals of the Boomers have rubbed off on the enlightened younger generation.

My guess is prices won’t fall significantly yet; YET. My views on this blog over the last 3+ years have been bullish. That’s because the clowns F and C will do everything in their power to stabilize prices at a high level. And they do wield much power.

I don’t expect interest rates to be raised much at all in the next few years. Immigration, both perm/temp, is at its highest level in history (but holders of bank equities never want to hear that). F and C want to ensure enough demand.

But, demographics/aging will eventually ensure a POP! The longer we stay at these levels, the bigger the POP. Also, when the younger generation realizes their wages and lifestyle are being undermined, they will turn on these policies. But when? I think this may end up being a one term majority gov. Don’t believe the polls.

Lastly, this Gov has mis-allocated capital (economic and moral). People of my generation have much anger in them; at the moment it’s just being subdued by higher and higher home prices. But, why they ask themselves are we chained to these huge mortgage debts? After the crash, its going to be a meaner society and I will feel sorry for the elderly.

F and C will do all in their power to stabilize RE prices; not to reduce them as it keeps them in power. However, Boomers (incl Garth and his Bank preferreds) should see the future thru the eyes of the younger generation. They don’t know it but it might end up helping them in the end.

#77 TRT on 10.17.12 at 2:56 am

Shark Fin ban; What’s worse than the soup?

..How they cut off the fins and throw the live sharks back in the water…at least kill them. no?

#78 Freedom First on 10.17.12 at 3:46 am

Congrats on the pic Garth! You worked hard and earned the right to post it!

For all the people who mocked Garth over the past blogs…….”This pic’s for you:)”

#79 Buy? Curious? on 10.17.12 at 4:35 am

Garth, I have no idea how Real Estate Boards come up with their numbers. The Days on the Market number is manipulated during slow times, Sales numbers are “seasonally adjusted” and pre-condo sales are lumped in with closed deal to inflate Sales numbers even though the closing won’t take place for years. When I bought my house, I checked out what all the houses sold for within the last 5 years and made an offer that was $25k less. Though to be fair, we did have insider information that the family was going through a messy divorce but still, it worked out well for everyone. As you have mentioned, real estate isn’t a bad investment as long as you’re not putting all your eggs in one basket. Even today, buying a place isn’t a bad idea if you get the right price and intend to live there for about 13years. You just have to carefully look at the numbers, make the connections and find a solution. Here’s an example of how I did it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PSueHOY-Jk

Smoking Man for Ontario Premier 2013!

#80 WEX19 on 10.17.12 at 6:08 am

Saw an ad posted on kijiji today. It was a parent, asking to hire someone to drive their 18 year old kid, from high school to their co-op placement at Walmart. (which is about 1km away)

-I remember co-op placements being for electrician, mechanics, vet tech, funeral home, etc. Now they are aspiring to work at Walmart?

-why is the kid not finding his own ride instead of parents placing ad?

-why doesn’t kid walk?

A lot of problems today rise from parents treating their kids like babies.

Maybe I’m missing something in this ad?

#81 Glenn on 10.17.12 at 6:16 am

No mention of the Calgary’s market recently which seems to be getting somewhat overheated again, at least at the high end?

I know an inspector who told me the other day it feels like 2007 again with the million $ plus homes.

#82 House on 10.17.12 at 7:04 am

What professional, expert body? Your talking about a bunch of used car salesmen who saw a bigger commission on real estate.

#83 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.17.12 at 7:14 am

Every September sees the average price rise from August:

http://guava.ca/indicators.html

Good to know that this represents a “recovery”. Just like September represents a recovery for all of those empty schools that have suffered since the children left in June.

#84 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.17.12 at 7:21 am

Realtor TNT you are uneducated and delusional. No one will be able to stop the current housing crash and prices are already down well over 10% and sales down well over 30% as the RE board manipulates the numbers. It’s already becoming a NASTY crash realtor TNT , a NASTY crash!

#85 Ronaldo on 10.17.12 at 7:27 am

#73 Tony –

”when everything implodes in the near future they’re be a massive hit to the downside in gold as they sell the metal to pay debts”

Tony, the main buyers of gold are the central banks, not the average Tony on the street who hasn’t even begun to get interested in buying the stuff. You need to get out more.

#86 Kevin on 10.17.12 at 7:30 am

How can a year-over-year decline be “seasonally adjusted” into a gain? Weren’t September 2011 and September 2012 the same “season,” just different years?

#87 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.17.12 at 7:30 am

Mstgofstr on 10.16.12 at 10:07 pm Went to the bank to today, that one that keeps telling me I’m richer than I think…..discussed a LOC for an RV purchase. No problem, 5%, blah blah. For fun I asked what we would qualify for mortgage wise. A couple years ago I was able to qualify for approx. 750k. Now? 500. Same $ down and amortization, I asked what gives, she said basically “we’re not as rich as we thought”. Thats with a family income of 150k, car payments and no other debts.
#40 Boombust on 10.16.12 at 10:08 pm
———————————————————-

This is why the housing sales have crashing to the ground and now prices are fallowing. People are not smart enough but the cheap and easy money is all but gone and the drop back to reality begins since peopl with no money which were the drivers of sales can not buy homes with no money. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty crash! Remember that every day you wake up realtors to sell that home you will never be able to sell.

#88 2centsCdn on 10.17.12 at 7:43 am

#77 TRT
Maybe duct tape them to a skate board and let them scoot along the bottom.

#89 maxx on 10.17.12 at 8:16 am

Great post, as usual Garth.

Realtards yet again grasping at straws- but the straws aren’t real. They creatively parse the rapidly declining stats so as to influence the pabulum of msm.
They hope that this will frighten the general public into another round of the “buy now or buy never” mentality. Major manipulation going on here and still they remain unaccountable. “Here’s the proof! It’s in the numbers! Numbers don’t lie!” This is not advertising in the classic sense of highlighting the good features of any given product: this is bold-face manipulation….and now, with the new economic reality, it’s of the “flogging a dead horse” variety.

The more the cartel keeps at it, the more they crystallize the public’s ever-deepening distrust.

RE was “the” asset of the past, but what is the next “it” asset? Income-producing portfolios with liquidity and thereby minimal/mitigated exposure to uncontrollable and nonsensical energy, tax, water and other increases?

People can know the freedom of being debt-free with monthly payouts from their investments….I’d love to see the day whereby this critical mass took hold. It would result in a fiscally healthier Canada with RE taking its rightful place…..well behind the priority of people’s quality of life.

#90 fancy_pants on 10.17.12 at 8:24 am

and maybe Ontario can stop spending $ for one day and McGuilty can say he left the province running a healthy surplus.

*sigh*

even my youngest child (10 year old) now knows not everything splat on youtube or on news headlines for that matter makes it true.

too bad for the few cocker spaniels and moist house virgins – less intelligence than cash is not a good combination.

Be smarter like Ontario’s premier… use other peoples $ to line your pockets then get the hell out when your shame becomes too overbearing. I’ll take the midget man any day over the pencil head.

#91 maxx on 10.17.12 at 8:30 am

#24 Inglorious Investor on 10.16.12 at 9:08 pm

Bulls eye. Canadian RE and fiscal mindset = blind, hubristic stupidity.

#92 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 8:58 am

Maybe the Canadian real estate market is tanking, maybe it is not. Stay tuned for further details… In the meantime we bring you this late breaking story;

Central Okanagan Single Family Sales

October 2012 Mth to Date
Units = 83
Average Price = $503,971

October 2011 Mth to Date
Units =72
Average Price = $4472,199

2012 Year to Date
Units = 1,743
Average Price = $500,970

2011 Year to Date
Units = 1,601
Average Price = $507,052

#93 Herb on 10.17.12 at 8:59 am

#28 Canadian Watchdog,

but it IS different in Toronto. The zillions of people you see at Union Station are Track 5ers who, like Smoked Man, are code writers, financial geniuses and speculators who need no steenking mortgages and will keep 416 real estate inflating evermore.

#94 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 8:59 am

Obvious typo

October 2011 Month to Date should read;

“Average Price = $472,199”

#95 Steven Rowlandson on 10.17.12 at 9:13 am

Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad #66
If Canada can not sustain and grow itself with out importing people, foriegn investment and all the politically correct nonesense and financial foolishness imposed by government then Canada is a failed nation. It therefore can repent or perish from the earth. If indeed we get an ice age or WW3 there will be no Canada any way.

#96 Steve on 10.17.12 at 9:22 am

#48 GTA Girl on 10.16.12 at 10:35 pm

“10 years ago I thought paying $500k for a home was insane. And I had a decent wage.”
___________________________________

It still is insane.

#97 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.17.12 at 9:24 am

#82 House on 10.17.12 at 7:04 am
“What professional, expert body? Your talking about a bunch of used car salesmen who saw a bigger commission on real estate.”

You’re giving the used car salesmen a bad name.
No comparison.

#98 Boombust on 10.17.12 at 9:33 am

“Good. With so many Canadians crossing the border to shop and pay their taxes there maybe I’ll now get goods for the same price.”

I guess everyone has a price. YOU just proved it.

Traitor.

#99 Smoking Man on 10.17.12 at 9:40 am

USA housing stats bahahaha

bond traders smell bull . equtity roboots can’t smell .

seams who ever runs equity boots just switched them off

#100 in the doghouse on 10.17.12 at 9:45 am

According to this article http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/commercial-real-estate-sales-climb-across-canada-re-max-1.999138
All seems to be rosy in commercial RE. Where I live there are more and more shops closing their doors every week , some strip mall are virtually empty ???
More spin-doctoring by the RE cartels?????

#101 Mick on 10.17.12 at 9:52 am

In unrelated news, 700 jobs lost at Galen’s and some bloggers elsewhere are wringing there hands at the thought of the stock price going up.
A sad , sad state of affairs.

#102 45north on 10.17.12 at 10:02 am

TRT: But, why they ask themselves are we chained to these huge mortgage debts?

because they signed their mortgage documents?

#103 TEMPLE on 10.17.12 at 10:10 am

#32 darcy on 10.16.12 at 9:45 pm

Hey Darcy, you can get some decent free guides on investing at the Motley Fool’s website. There are also a ton of very smart people writing at Seeking Alpha, and you can easily get some investing basics there (even though Seeking Alpha is focused mostly on stocks).

If you really get into it (and you should, it is fascinating), there are some really great books out there, including “What Works on Wall Street” and “Stocks for the Long Run,” Those are just two among many excellent books.

One piece of advice: stick to value investing. Don’t waste your time on day trading or chart reading or any of that other stuff.

TEMPLE

#104 Doug in London on 10.17.12 at 10:17 am

@Brad in Cowtown, post #69: Anyone who’s listened to this blog since its inception has lost money.

Really? I’ve taken advice about buying equity ETF’s and REITS when they were on sale from this sad and catatonic blog and have made a tidy sum of money on dividends. Now the punch line, i’ve also made some capital gains! Thanks, Garth, for all the good advice.

#105 Reality Bytes on 10.17.12 at 10:35 am

Mike really butchered that earthquake analogy.

#106 Daisy Mae on 10.17.12 at 10:37 am

#19 Imprisoned In Parksville: “When people on here say “F”, what does that mean? I’ve been reading this blog for about 4 months and still don’t know.”

*********************

‘F’ refers to that little twerp in Ottawa who fancies himself as our ‘finance minister’. They’re often referred to, not so fondly, as ‘F and the Peckerettes’.

#107 John on 10.17.12 at 10:40 am

It’s sometimes easy to forget that realtors are just salespeople, not much different from a used car salesperson but on a larger scale. The “profession” is really a joke and with all the information that’s available to the public now (including this blog), their value is grossly overvalued. You would also think that because home ownership is such an important part of economic growth that there would be some kind of objective regulatory body that protects the public from bad deals, misinformation, and tactics like pricing a home $50K below market. Unfortunately no. We live in a buyer beware world and the only way to overcome the smoke and mirrors is being educated and to challenge people who say things like “renting is a waste of money” or “real estate is always a safe investment”.

#108 Curious George on 10.17.12 at 10:50 am

Here’s an idea:
the decrease comes from (Sept2012)/(Sept2011) -1
the increase comes from (Sept2012)/(Aug2012)-1

Before we start putting the blame on seasonality adjustment let’s get our facts straight please.

If there is any problem with seasonality it is that usually sales in September are higher than in August. It’s like saying that Toys R’ Us had good December sales because it was higher than October even though it sold 50% less toys than in December last year.

#109 CoreyMc in Calgary on 10.17.12 at 10:52 am

#94 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 8:59 am
Obvious typo

October 2011 Month to Date should read;

“Average Price = $472,199″

——————————————————————–

Don’t worry about it, we all know Realtors and numbers don’t jive. You guys will be playing with them even more so in the future.

#110 tkid on 10.17.12 at 11:17 am

*when everything implodes in the near future they’re be a massive hit to the downside in gold as they sell the metal to pay debts.*

This isn’t why I buy gold. It’s my insurance plan in case everything goes belly up a la Argentina and I get locked out of my fiat dollars bank account. Yes, it is an unlikely event to happen, but if everything implodes, I’ll be glad I have a little gold.

It’s the emergency fund’s emergency fund.

#111 Tony Right on 10.17.12 at 11:18 am

How are these economists and real estate people allowed to get away with such blatant lies to the people of Canada? What ever happened to honesty, responsibility and accountability in this country?

#112 Randy on 10.17.12 at 11:23 am

When house prices finally start to fall…..will people start to lock-in their variable mortgages ?

#113 Canadian Watchdog on 10.17.12 at 11:48 am

Harper Government Invests in Cyber Security

No spending cuts there.

#114 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 11:56 am

#107 John on 10.17.12 at 10:40 am

REALTORS are certainly no longer the ‘gatekeepers’ of that information which is now readily available on the internet. But that information is only preliminary to buyers and sellers initial foray into the market and secondary to their real wants and needs. That information which is now available on the internet, if you really think about, doesn’t answer very many of the most important questions you might have before making a real estate transaction. Each of us must admit it is really quite amazing what we don’t know we don’t know let alone what we know we don’t know.

Let’s face it we aren’t talking about an automobile here we’re talking about ‘home’ and ‘home’ is a lot more than the bricks and mortar which encompasses and shelters it and certainly more so than the automobile which delivers you to it. Absolutely anyone you entrust to help you on matters of ‘home’ should be held accountable to a far higher standard than they you entrust to help you buy a car. Rest assured that there are indeed many a regulatory body that protect the public from bad deals, misinformation and unethical marketing tactics in real estate. Caveat emptor, which is very much applicable to an automobile purchase, is not nearly so applicable to a real estate transaction as you appear to believe.

While ignorance is bliss but you do appear to be enduring enough misery by your misinformation that you ought to do yourself a favour and research the matter. I would suggest you start with familiarizing yourself with the Law of Agency. The Law of Agency dictates that a REALTOR works for you putting your best interests before their own (Fiduciary duty). I only wish that next time I embark upon shopping for a new car I could find such an ‘agent’ to help me with the process. I am quite sure if there were such a service I would gladly pay.

In closing, I encourage anyone who believes they have a legitimate claim against a real estate professional who has caused you to make a bad deal, given you or the public misinformation and/or flagrantly carried out unethical marketing tactics to report them to whichever governing body you deem appropriate. Help us get rid of those ‘bad apples’, please.

#115 TRT on 10.17.12 at 11:59 am

#84 realtors in an all out panic:

Do you realize how stupid you sound?

#116 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.17.12 at 12:29 pm

#114 };-) aka D.A.,

What does the “LAW OF AGENCY” say about the pitch you make to your buyers and your sellers?

You must work both sides of the street. Do you give these two groups the same sermon?

Ricky Roma definitely would have two, three, four+, motivational routines.

However, Roma is fictional, you’re real…tell us about your exploits.

#117 Spiltbongwater on 10.17.12 at 12:33 pm

#114 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 11:56 am

Is it considered an unethical marketing tactic to delist a property, and relist the same/next day so as to hide a price reduction, and DOM? I am not talking about a vendor changing agents, but same agent removing a stale listing and relisting same day.

I don’t see what the reason for this action is other then to decieve a potential buyer whose agent does not work in the best interest of the buyer by doing a property listing search to show the true DOM. Apparently this sort of action “happens all the time”.

I would think a property would need to be removed from the market for a minimum amount of time before being able to partake in this sort of deciept.

#118 dosouth on 10.17.12 at 12:48 pm

In response to all the hub-bub over DKA and his/her post defending an indefensible position. Check out the latest realtors “actually caught” by the public usually and sometimes competitors –

http://www.recbc.ca/complaints/discipline.html

#119 Old Man on 10.17.12 at 12:51 pm

Well it is official, as Caesar just announced that the F’er aka F has notified the House of Commons that a new budget bill will be tabled which is hundreds of pages long. This is not good news at all.

#120 dosouth on 10.17.12 at 12:53 pm

P.S. – B.C. is one of the only provinces to do this. Lived in PEI for the past year and they wouldn’t even supply sales by area statistics or a person at their board to talk about finding information on “ANY” realtor.

So B.C. is ahead. But as I believe, like having a criminal record. You only have one if you’re caught.

#121 luke8929 on 10.17.12 at 12:55 pm

Housing starts rise int he USA, flippers and reno warriors getting back into the market.

Pre election number fudging or are things picking up? What does the Fed do if it appears housing bubble 2.0 is starting? Raise rates or let prices rise so consumers can use their houses like ATM’s again. Is it that you can’t fix stupid or greedy or is this the only way people can get ahead by gambling in real estate and the markets.

It seems that working and saving is a sure way to fall behind with inflation and monetary easing driving the price of everything up.

#122 Penny Henny on 10.17.12 at 12:57 pm

to aka DA
if you want a reputible service to guide you in the purchase of a new car. http://www.carsmart.ca/
or http://www.carcostcanada.com

Penny Henny

#123 Rob on 10.17.12 at 1:30 pm

I’ve been looking at some new subdivions lately. It’s sad to see so many new couples buying homes with such high prices. They’ve dug themselves into a deep hole. One of the subdivisions had a grand opening for new releases, it was cancelled. Im curious why. Probably dead. 300k for a 1100 sq ft home. My sheds are bigger than that. My lord. Poor kids will have no where to play. Kids will suffer due to corruptness. So sad.

#124 Smoking Man on 10.17.12 at 1:30 pm

#115 Trt

That’s it , chirping LaughingCON . you will forever be a realtor now.

#125 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 1:39 pm

#116Dontcallmeshirley on 10.17.12 at 12:29 pm
#114 };-) aka D.A.,

What does the “LAW OF AGENCY” say about the pitch you make to your buyers and your sellers?

I tell buyers and sellers what they NEED to know not what they WANT to know and certainly never an untruth. REALTORS deal in the realities of the market. We really don’t care if it is up or down. We check emotion at the door and bring logic to the table.

#117Spiltbongwater on 10.17.12 at 12:33 pm
#114 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 11:56 am

Is it considered an unethical marketing tactic to delist a property, and relist the same/next day so as to hide a price reduction, and DOM? I am not talking about a vendor changing agents, but same agent removing a stale listing and relisting same day.

Believe it or not when a REALTOR does that they are not trying to hoodwink the public nearly so much as the other REALTORS. In so doing that listing hits the “Dailies” as a potentially “hot new listing” that the REALTORS may have missed. We don’t market to the public nearly so much as we market to ourselves. Why would we do a ‘shotgun’ approach when we can go right to the source. Most every buyer is, at some point, working with an agent.

#118 dosouth on 10.17.12 at 12:48 pm
In response to all the hub-bub over DKA and his/her post defending an indefensible position. Check out the latest realtors “actually caught” by the public usually and sometimes competitors –
http://www.recbc.ca/complaints/discipline.html

Try find an industry that polices itself so diligently as that. Any impropriety an individual REALTOR commits is a black eye on our profession no matter how minor. We are held by a higher standard by our own association. Take some time to read some of those disciplinary decisions and I am sure you will agree many or most might be considered by the general public less than atrocious however we (BCREA) are not at all lenient on those who screw up even the slightest as we strive to hold ourselves to a higher standard.

Thank you dosouth for providing that link and everyone please do take some time to read some of those actions so that you understand just how fine tooth a comb we do use in regulating our industry.

BTW – you might want to ask the REALTOR you are considering hiring if they have ever been charged in an industry disciplinary hearing or court action. Might tell you something about the professionalism and character of they you might hire.

#126 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 1:48 pm

#116 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.17.12 at 12:29 pm

Oh and by the way, I never represent both the buyer and seller in a deal (Limited Dual Agency). If a buyer wants to buy one of the properties I have listed I refer them to another agent or they can elect ‘No Agency Representation’ in which case they are deal with as a ‘customer’ not a ‘client’.

#127 Penny Henny on 10.17.12 at 1:49 pm

Renting a house was 57 percent more expensive than owning in Atlanta in August, the same as a year earlier, according to Trulia Inc.

Higher rents make it more profitable for private equity firms to buy and lease properties to tenants, many of whom don’t have the necessary credit score or downpayment to finance a purchase.

In Phoenix, owning is 49 percent cheaper than renting, narrowing from 55 percent cheaper a year earlier. The gap narrowed even as 30-year mortgage rates fell by an average 1 percentage point to 3.5 percent, according to Trulia economist Jed Kolko.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-17/private-equity-in-atlanta-after-picking-phoenix-clean-mortgages.html

#128 Timbo on 10.17.12 at 1:58 pm

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49448427

“While the silver lining is good news for the broader ‘housing recovery,’ the elevated permitting activity in the 5+ unit segment may set off alarms in apartment-land,” write David Toti and Gaurav Mehta in the Cantor report. “We expect the multifamily REITs could be under pressure today.”

bubble all you want but wages must increase or history repeats…..

http://www.businessinsider.com/dylan-grice-inflation-2012-10?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheMoneyGame+%28The+Money+Game%29

“Before you know it, they are going to get what they wished for. They are going to get inflation, and then they are going to have a very difficult decision to make, because the only way to stop inflation is to cause a recession, and they don’t want to cause a recession. They are in the recession-fighting business. If they were happy with a recession, they wouldn’t have done this in the first place.”

Should I stay or should I go?………

#129 patiently waiting on 10.17.12 at 2:07 pm

It is difficult to get accurate information that reflects the true state of the market as it is in the best interest of the real estate boards and realtors to hide the facts. Here are 2 examples from my hood (White Rock BC).

1) 12756 25A Avenue
This property was originally listed at $1,680,000 in July 2011. This just sold for $1,280,000 – after about 16 months on the market. However, Days on Market shows only 139 days – less than 1/2 the actual time it took to sell. There was also 2 mortgages on title, a “Modification of mortgage”, Claim of Builders Lien, and a Certificate of Pending Litigation by the 1st Mortgage Holder so basically on it’s way to foreclosure. I wonder if the Realtor representing the Buyers gave the client this information when offering . . .

2)15438 Royal Avenue
Original List Price $2,000,000 in March 2012
Just sold for $1,240,000. Days on Market shows only 85 days. Again less the half the time it actually took to sell. The Title also showed 3 judgements registered, and a Certificate of Pending Litigation by TD Bank – basically on it’s way to foreclosure.

Information is power . . . use it to your advantage . . . also do not necessarily trust what the real estate boards and your Realtor is telling you, as they may not be giving you all of the information . . .

pw

#130 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 2:17 pm

#117 Spiltbongwater on 10.17.12 at 12:33 pm

No good comes from listing a property at too high a price to begin with that it does not sell and then needs to be reduced in price at least once with great subsequent effort to revive interest in it from any source. I cannot stress enough the importance of intelligent pricing at the onset. Pricing is a HUGE part of what we do. Unfortunately there are many whose business model is to take the listing at any price and hope for the best as in “throw enough shit against the wall and some of it is bound to stick”. Unfortunately a little of it does and the rest ultimately comes tumbling down on one’s head that they end up covered in it. It’s better to turn them down than let them down.

#131 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 2:20 pm

previous post should have read; “too little, if any, of it” rather than “a little of it”

#132 DonDWest on 10.17.12 at 2:21 pm

“What ever happened to honesty, responsibility and accountability in this country?”

What, you expect honesty, responsibility and accountability in capitalism? The system is alergic to those three words.

#133 Blacksheep on 10.17.12 at 2:27 pm

DA,

“dictates that a REALTOR works for you putting your best interests before their own”
———————————–
Well I’m thrilled to hear you adhere to these strict moral guidelines. Trouble is I think you represent about 5% of your guild, and believe the: ‘Its not what you do, but what you get caught doing’ statement that applies.

take care
Blacksheep

#134 Blacksheep on 10.17.12 at 2:28 pm

Boombust #98,

“I guess everyone has a price. YOU just proved it”

“Traitor.”
———————————–
I try to avoid the patriotic trap. My country VS your country, shite. How much do we export to the US, taking away American jobs?

Should THEY, not have something to complain about?

Should someone be guilted to buy in the country which they live in, even if it costs more, when corporations have long since, outsourced much of our manufacturing globally?
This is nonsense. First protectionism, then trade wars, then real wars.

take care
Blacksheep

#135 patiently waiting on 10.17.12 at 2:32 pm

Here is a link to the properties I mentioned. Note also that these do not show the original list prices, as each property was taken off of the market and relisted to hide the true price drops.

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1070862339&s=BRC&t=BRC

pw

#136 newsy on 10.17.12 at 2:38 pm

Print media are in struggles for survival. Not surprising that weekend papers’ space/income derived from real estate/developer advertisements, counts on supportive ‘news’ stories that ‘complement’ RE ads rather than objectively portraying market realities.

#137 TNT on 10.17.12 at 2:40 pm

The average life cycle of a currency is 100 years, does
1913 ring a bell, that’s when the privately owned FED set up shop.

Metal head alert, don’t be ashamed of your profits they have out performed most alternatives over the past years, significantly.

Yes it goes up and down just like other stocks.
Physical goes up because the worth of the dollar is going down, paper being printed with nothing to support it…..except the endless printing of paper.

Wait and see what happens when the Fed owns most of the mortgage backed securities down south, heard of agenda 21?

How you ask…thats what the 40 Billion a month bailout is buying up, fractionating, heard of derivatives, and then buying T Bills and paying the interest on the US Debt.

This is what is happening with some distractive fireworks being thrown in, again.

House of cards.

#138 Bottoms_Up on 10.17.12 at 2:58 pm

#21 happy renter on 10.16.12 at 9:05 pm
——————————————-
LOL, is that the best joke you can come up with? Come on, you can do better than that!!

#139 Bottoms_Up on 10.17.12 at 3:02 pm

#110 tkid on 10.17.12 at 11:17 am
————————————-
Do you really need an insurance plan for an ‘end of days’ scenario?

It’s been posted here before — if such a scenario does occur, much better to be positioned like Garth (i.e., a bunker, pea shooter, canned foods, squirrel recipes) than someone wandering around with a pocket full of gold.

#140 Bottoms_Up on 10.17.12 at 3:12 pm

#69 Brad in Cowtown on 10.17.12 at 1:09 am
——————————————
Not true.

If I had stayed renting I’d be ahead of where I am today.

Yes on paper my place has gone up in value. But mortgage interest, property taxes, repairs and maintenance, and the cost to get out of my house (moving/lawyer/real estate fees, and cost to break the mortgage) negates the gained equity and increase in house price.

And that is in an ‘up’ market. It confirms what Garth recently wrote, that owning is only marginally better, even in a very robust market.

#141 Ronaldo on 10.17.12 at 3:17 pm

#107 John –

”We live in a buyer beware world and the only way to overcome the smoke and mirrors is being educated and to challenge people who say things like “renting is a waste of money” or “real estate is always a safe investment”

Don’t try that with your mother in law John.

#142 Bottoms_Up on 10.17.12 at 3:20 pm

#51 Steven Rowlandson on 10.16.12 at 10:44 pm
———————————–
you’re kidding right? if it’s like that here, then wouldn’t it be worse everywhere else? why aren’t we hearing about this from any media around the world? must be a co-ordinated cover-up by all the countries around the world.

#143 backwardsevolution on 10.17.12 at 3:30 pm

dosouth – looks like those realtors get a slap on the wrist, very short suspensions, and inconsequential fines. They need to hit them harder.

#144 Rob on 10.17.12 at 3:32 pm

I’m looking to sell one of my investment condos but don’t want to pay the high real estate commissions. Anyone have any reviews on these types of fsbo sites? I know of comfree and propertyguys but have found so many others now too. mycondolisting.ca seems most applicable. I’m just looking for some reviews and feedback. Thanks!!

#145 jess on 10.17.12 at 3:57 pm

…so wouldn’t big banks like citi (50b. deferral) lose if taxes were lowered?

What is deferred tax asset? Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deferredtaxasset.asp#ixzz29ZYzaicV

#146 aggie on 10.17.12 at 4:09 pm

64 45north on 10.17.12 at 12:05 am
I remember the 60′s, Woodbridge was still farms. One summer job was in the flooring business. One job was to pour a floor at Mary Miles Meat Packing Plant. The crew was Italian. We had mostly finished the floor when somebody noticed a flaw in the cement. The boss said to ignore it. Without saying a word, one of the workers waded through the freshly poured cement, repaired the flaw and troweled his way back.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
How to bring back a culture of wading and troweling… contrarianism, of a good and right kind?

p.s. I remember Woodbridge too, from the 50s, albeit my vague memory is of being abandoned, all alone in a playground, with my toddler bum clamped unforgivingly into a baby swing-seat, while my 4-year-old sister ran home to get help with the extrication. I remember dark mornings, waking in my little attic room at the top of a ladder-like stairway, to visions of mouse traps having done their duty… no mcmansion, that!

#147 Questioning Calgary stats on 10.17.12 at 4:11 pm

#69 Brad in Cowtown

Do you remember the all-out crash in Calgary in 08-09? The Calgary real estate prices tanked 20% in less than 1 year. The price of oil was above $100 for most of that. Garth called that one.

You probably have no clue as to why the housing market suddenly stopped tanking later in 09.

What happened, Brad, is that there was a sudden, unprecedented, emergency intervention to stop that Canada-wide housing crash. In 09 CMHC’s total was about $300 B and now that total is almost $600 B. All of a sudden in 09 CMHC started to insure any mortgage application that came its way.

Did you predict that emergency market intervention in 09? We all know that you did not. Nobody could have, not even Garth.

This time, Brad, it will be different. There will be no emergency intervention of that size to stop the market from correcting/crashing.

So Brad, since you are so smart, tell us your prediction for Canadian real estate one year from now. Will prices be lower or higher?

Garth says lower. Guaranteed he will be right again and you will be wrong.

#148 broadway skytrain on 10.17.12 at 4:20 pm

#100 in the doghouse on 10.17.12 at 9:45 am
Where I live there are more and more shops closing their doors every week
————-
where are you?
does not sound like vancouver.

#149 Ralph Cramdown on 10.17.12 at 4:43 pm

I think we need to face facts here. That real estate agent has a radon problem and his house is over a subway line.

#150 Fabrega on 10.17.12 at 4:46 pm

Garth,
What are your thoughts about annuities compared to a diversified portofolio of financial assets? I would appreciate your opinion.

In this low-rate environment they suck. Stay clear. — Garth

#151 jess on 10.17.12 at 4:48 pm

Acrobaties fiscales
http://www.radio-canada.ca/emissions/enquete/2012-2013/Reportage.asp?idDoc=248015&autoPlay=http://www.radio-canada.ca/Medianet/2012/CBFT/2012-10-11_21_00_00_enq_0122_04_1200.asx

Last year, Canadian direct investment in tax havens totaled $ 141 billion. In Canada, as in most Western countries, among other taxes are levied to finance social programs and infrastructure. As citizens, we have little means to escape the tax levy, but for multinationals that seems much easier. With the help of accountants and tax experts, more and more large corporations are reporting record profits in tax havens where they do almost no business, but where taxes are almost nil. giants Canadian here are no exception.
=

Royalties paid to that subsidiary are taxed at 5,72% in Luxembourg, avoiding the average 25% in Canadian corporate tax that would apply if the royalties revenues were taxed in Canada. Canada has a tax treaty with Luxembourg.

http://taxjustice.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/tax-avoidance-first-facebook-then.html

#152 Doug in London on 10.17.12 at 4:49 pm

@WEX19, post #80
They should be looking for a used bicycle on kijiji instead. As for the helmet and lock, those can be purchased at Walmart.

#153 Canadian Watchdog on 10.17.12 at 4:52 pm

#144 Rob

That was a shameless plug.

#154 TNT on 10.17.12 at 4:54 pm

@ Bottoms_Up

Check out how gold has tracked inflation verses the US dollar losing 95% of its value?

The bunker doomer scenario, they are using paper to finace that, paper that is devaluing daily.

Take your pick gold or paper its still a means to an end.
Can’t really eat either.

But you can buy food with one. — Garth

#155 Ronaldo on 10.17.12 at 4:59 pm

#137 TNT –

”How you ask…thats what the 40 Billion a month bailout is buying up, fractionating, heard of derivatives, and then buying T Bills and paying the interest on the US Debt.”

Isn’t that kinda like ”money laundering”? What are they going to do with the garbage after they buy it?

#156 Ronaldo on 10.17.12 at 5:07 pm

#133 Blacksheep – actually, I tend to believe that realtors justify what they do by following Murphys Law which states:

“It is morally wrong to allow suckers to keep their money”.

Of course this does not just apply to realtors but other occupations out there such as used car salesman, mutual fund salesman, etc.

#157 Tony on 10.17.12 at 5:17 pm

Re: #144 Rob on 10.17.12 at 3:32 pm

Try Kijiji i mean it’s only a condo it’s not like you’re selling the crown jewels or an apartment building. All you need is a lawyer and real estate lawyer if you know any. There’s no need to pay anything when selling real estate other than the lawyer and discharge fees.

#158 Tony on 10.17.12 at 5:28 pm

Re: #112 Randy on 10.17.12 at 11:23 am

Arson will be all the rage and the insurance companies will lose a fortune.

#159 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 5:33 pm

#133 Blacksheep on 10.17.12 at 2:27 pm

There is no hiding from ill deeds as they have a habit of coming back on you when you least expect them despite living an uncomfortable restless life always looking over your shoulder knowing that, eventually, they will catch up with you. Some call it ‘Karma’ I call it an ‘equilibrium’ no different than that which applies to anything else. What you get out of life is directly proportionate to that which you give. In the long run honesty is always the best policy.

There are more of us out there than you realize. As in anything, it is the malpracticing minority which gives the majority a bad name.

#160 Devore on 10.17.12 at 5:42 pm

#55 DON

Come’on use your senses, you can feel it coming. One indicator is the lack of housing talk in the work environment. Nobody is saying a word.

Oh, they’re still talking, just not about how much money they’re making and how they’re buying more. Now it’s the flip side. Less slapping self on back, more punching self in face. One co-worker, divorcing, house for sale for months, dropped price, only a couple low ball offers so far.

Well, on the bright side, sales are up 60%, so should sell any day now, right?

#161 TNT on 10.17.12 at 5:50 pm

@Garth
-You can buy food with one-
……………………………………………………………………………
You can buy food with both, sell the gold for cash or barter it.
Like you, i do not advocate putting all your eggs in one basket.
……………………………………………………………………………
@Ronaldo

Bank A give’s the loan then sells (transfers) the loan to Bank B that then fractionates it.
1st- bank gets interest, fees, a cut.
2nd -bank fractionates mortgage backed loan and turns 1 dollar in to 20, 50, 30 or 500, depends on the creativity level.
Then is time to go shopping for self generated self regulated T Bills whose interest will temporarly hold the National debt at bay.

What would you do if you could print money at will?
And it gets even better you can turn 1 dollar into 50.

Buy everything you can.
Derivatives shuffel.
Money from Nothing.

#162 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 5:56 pm

#122Penny Henny on 10.17.12 at 12:57 pm

to aka DA

if you want a reputible service to guide you in the purchase of a new car.

http://www.carsmart.ca/
or http://www.carcostcanada.com

Penny Henny

PERFECT! Thank you.

I like CarSmart’s approach

How we work

When you hire Car$mart™ you won’t need to visit a dealership. We do everything on your behalf!

The Car$mart™ process is made up of the following five simple steps. This process is designed to make buying a new car easier, more affordable, and much more enjoyable for you

Step 1: INITIAL CONSULTATION
•Meet with you over the phone, or at your home or office
•Assess your driving needs and examine your budget
•Discuss current market conditions and vehicle prices
•Select a few recommended vehicles that suit your needs
•Appraise your current vehicle (if necessary)

Step 2: TEST DRIVE
•Arrange test drives of selected vehicles (if necessary), or
• Bring your most desired vehicle directly to your home or office for a ‘personal’ test drive

Step 3: NEGOTIATION
• Locate the exact vehicle you want
• Negotiate the best possible price and terms
•Negotiate the best possible trade-in price (if necessary)

Step 4: ADMINISTRATION
•Manage all paperwork and administrative details
•Prepare you with documentation for leasing/financing, insurance, trade-in, etc…

Step 5: DELIVERY
• Bring your new car right to your door!

Nice!

#163 Glen on 10.17.12 at 6:11 pm

#147 – Questioning

You win the prize! Not sure what it is, but you won it :).

The rapid run up of prices in many markets is a direct result of the credit taps being turned way up. F and the Peckerettes now have their pipe-wrenches out and are feverishly cranking down valves. The CMHC is rapidly approaching its loan limits.

Overall, not a pretty picture.

A side note, I am particularly tired of people who fluked their way through this mess and now consider themselves housing geniuses. “Housing only goes up!” They are in for a rude surprise.

#164 TNT on 10.17.12 at 6:16 pm

@ 141 ronaldo

Check out Agenda 21.
It deals with copyright(property ownership) and what the government deems to fall under that guise.

Very few people own their homes out right, the bank’s own them, the bank’s who make the rules.

The end game is that the privatized US Fed will hold the paper for most of Americas mortgages, even now they are renting out forclosed houses.

The irony is that it was the ongoing derivatives debacle, lending practices, that caused this mayhem in the first place, the bank’s have just found a new vehicle to plunder.

You cannot seriously believe this. If so, I pity you. — Garth

#165 Devore on 10.17.12 at 6:19 pm

#125 };-) aka D.A.

Believe it or not when a REALTOR does that they are not trying to hoodwink the public nearly so much as the other REALTORS. In so doing that listing hits the “Dailies” as a potentially “hot new listing” that the REALTORS may have missed.

Is that what you believe? Or what you want us to believe?

Price changes (PC) show up on hotlists just as well as new listings. And unless there’s a hidden proliferation of relists at the same price as previous that I am not aware of, all relists are always reduced price.

In the US, where relists do nothing except waste time and money, people will sometimes price reduce by $1 just to hit the hotlists again.

Realtors relist because a) a price change “looks bad” and leads to lowball offers, and b) a stale listing is death, because “everyone does it”, so a listing with 2 months DoM is considered old and has to be refreshed.

Again, if sales and listing information was more public, this pathetic practice would die overnight.

#166 Ken R on 10.17.12 at 6:20 pm

#132DonDWest on 10.17.12 at 2:21 pm

“What ever happened to honesty, responsibility and accountability in this country?”

You’re killing me man. Good one. Have you been in a coma for 30 years?

#167 Devore on 10.17.12 at 6:30 pm

#132 DonDWest

What, you expect honesty, responsibility and accountability in capitalism? The system is alergic to those three words.

Don whining again. Shocker.

“The capitalist system” is already honest, responsible and accountable… to those who pay the bills. And if it isn’t, take your money elsewhere.

#168 Victor on 10.17.12 at 6:36 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/mayor-says-town-in-peril-as-xl-reinstates-layoffs/article4618137/

“We’re in crisis mode,” Mayor Martin Shields said Wednesday in an interview with The Canadian Press.

“There are so many of those people who have come to our country,” Shields said. “They’ve made a life for themselves. There’s lots of local people who work there, too.”

Mr. Shields said it will become increasingly difficult for the 2,200 workers to pay for rent, mortgages and the necessities of life once they miss a paycheque.

“There’s desperation in their eyes and they’re looking to me to help resolve this thing and I can’t resolve it.”

The 2,200 XL workers were laid off last week. About 800 were recalled to work temporarily Tuesday to finish processing beef carcasses as part of a Canadian Food Inspection Agency assessment of the plant.

========================

There may be HAM scattered across the country, but there’s also plenty of folk that would lose it all with one missed paycheque.

Sad but true…

#169 McLovin on 10.17.12 at 6:40 pm

2012 Year to Date
Units = 1,743
Average Price = $500,970

2011 Year to Date
Units = 1,601
Average Price = $507,052

DA and this is good how? Sales up a bit from low levels?

This looks like the 5th year in a row of steady declines.

#170 TNT on 10.17.12 at 6:43 pm

-Garth-

..if so i pity you.
……………………………………………………………………………
Where do you draw the line at the corruption in the US system?
Do you think the banking system has been upright and operated with integrity?
How about Geithner saying he knew about the manipulation in Libor, and saying it was nessary.
Im sure people would of found that equally bizzare. Rate fixing that picked the pocket of millions of people.
Thats stealing.
No different then you coming home and finding a theif in your house.
I do beleive that the Fed is going to enslave America, call it pitifull, im just going by its actions.
I guess we will see.`
Enjoy the debate:)

Time you left the island. — Garth

#171 karl hungus on 10.17.12 at 6:55 pm

No crash in Edmonton. Prices have already soften. Uphill from here.

#172 dosouth on 10.17.12 at 7:06 pm

};-) aka D.A. – Fighting an uphill battle against an image that has been created over years of improprieties and shameless tactics.

We know of these sites unfortunately as having bought and sold 10 properties since 2007 we have seen the good, bad and ugly.

We do have one reliable agent we turn to but he is getting out. Tired of defending the industry (such as you are attempting to do here)

These agents under discipline are some of the biggest sellers in the industry. On average making 10-25k per sale, heck $1250 and a day at the “realtor behaviour school” which is tax deductible is nothing as mentioned in another post.

Two brothers in Vernon have been disciplined more than once and I personally know of at least one other action that is missing from the list but was on last year when we did ask why the brother was disciplined.

Self policing doesn’t work. All smoke and mirrors.

At least you’re trying here, save some of your energy for the job hunt. Just sayin’…….

#173 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 7:19 pm

#165 Devore on 10.17.12 at 6:19 pm

We (REALTORS®) are duty bound to do that which is in the best interest of our principal be they a seller or a buyer. The practice of cancelling and relisting is not so concealed t as you seem to believe. With but a simple click of a mouse the complete MLS history of any given listing can be brought up on your agents computer screen. As far as trying to dupe the general public into believing it is a new listing; how many signs do you see come down and then immediately be put back up? None – that would be a ridiculous ploy.

On the matter of publicizing sales and listing information, you do realize we have privacy laws in Canada don’t you?

Again, unintelligently pricing a property at the onset does no one any good. When a property goes stale on the market, usually after the first 21 to 28 days, it becomes very difficult to revive it. More often than not another REALTOR® with another firm ends up listing it, as often as not for the same price and the ‘newness’ of that alone unfetters the prospect of a sale such as it does. But far more often the seller ends up netting a about fifty cents less per each dollar they were originally overpriced than had they listed it for a realistic price to begin with.

It really is a moot point as far as any buyer should be concerned because asking prices are no indication of market value what-so-ever. One should always looks at what similar comparable properties to that of interest recently sold for. Your REALTOR® should do at least that and so much more including providing you the complete history, on all accounts, on that property you expressed an interest in.

#174 Canadian Watchdog on 10.17.12 at 7:24 pm

“You cannot seriously believe this. If so, I pity you. — Garth”

Do you believe every city/town in the world has a land shortage problem at the same time? Sustainable Halton

The documents and plans are all there Garth. Many already see it happening, now they have to read it to believe it.

The Fed is taking over Nassagaweya? — Garth

#175 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 7:29 pm

#165 Devore on 10.17.12 at 6:19 pm

Your REALTOR® should do at least that and so much more including providing you the complete history, on all accounts, on that property you expressed an interest in. – D.A.

Don’t want to use a REALTOR? No problem, you get what you pay for… or in that case… what you don’t pay for.

HINT: You might be able to get that sold information from your local property assessment office as we do grant them access to our database that they may collect and use it in determining property values.

Ever try get your hands on a Auto Dealers Kelly Blue Book value guide? The industry pays to compile and maintain it. No one is stopping anyone else from endeavoring to try to do the same. Some sources just have better data integrity than others. Again, you get what you pay for.

#176 Smoking Man on 10.17.12 at 7:49 pm

#166 Ken R on 10.17.12 at 6:20 pm

I will address that issue in my next prolific post.

Packing for Vegas, bubble heads , have a cold, Jack Danials will be the cure. Gartho, have your hand close to the delete button this week end. I might even post hot pics to my blog if I can figure out this Galaxy 3 in time.

#177 jess on 10.17.12 at 7:53 pm

http://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/art-570868

” infrastructure is less about financing development and more about developing finance.”

More than Bricks and Mortar
Infrastructure as Asset Class: A Critical Look at Private Equity Infrastructure Funds
Nicholas Hildyard
31 August 2012

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/topics/brics/brics-reports-pdfs/infrastructure-building-the-world.pdf

#178 spaceman on 10.17.12 at 8:00 pm

#6 tow mater

“All this is happening and the general public is still in the dark.”

You might not believe it but more then 50% still believe home prices are going up

Not in Victoria, the real slump is about 10% if you look at listings not sold and project where they will sell in a month or 2.

Talk around the water cooler today, wow, bad time to sell, , had to cut the price 4 times to sell the house…

Bobs house has been listed for 4 months and no offers…

Randy decided to rent out the house and live in an apartment until the market gets better….

Its all doom and gloom in Victoria, and getting worse.

#179 spaceman on 10.17.12 at 8:02 pm

And the new gold…. is wood… check out WEF, Western Forest Products, up 15% today. With the US housing industry coming back, BC wood has become BC bud…

#180 Canadian Watchdog on 10.17.12 at 8:28 pm

Oh oh…

It was only a matter of time.

#181 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 8:35 pm

#169McLovin on 10.17.12 at 6:40 pm
2012 Year to Date
Units = 1,743
Average Price = $500,970

2011 Year to Date
Units = 1,601
Average Price = $507,052

DA and this is good how? Sales up a bit from low levels?

This looks like the 5th year in a row of steady declines.

Up a bit from low levels? Sure if you consider the peak of the market in 2007/08 a benchmark. Personally I consider them to have been an anomaly the likes of which we should hope do not return as ultimately it costs us all.

Not at all the 5th year in a row of steady declines… we have been ‘stable’ with modest gains in volumes hardly noteworthy price declines – effectively flat lined which isn’t bad by compare.

#172 dosouth on 10.17.12 at 7:06 pm

I like what I do and I do it on my terms. Indeed there are a lot of smoke and mirrors in the business and we are to a large degree our own worst enemies in perpetuating the myths and misunderstandings. I don’t subscribe to the B.S. and do the business in a manner that allows me to sleep at night if not live a lavish jet set lifestyle.

#182 Ralph Cramdown on 10.17.12 at 8:51 pm

#175 };-) aka D.A.

http://www.kbb.com Dealer retail, wholesale and private party values.

If you need a market price, you HIRE AN APPRAISER who has access to the same database realtors use, but only charges a few hundred bucks, and shows you the comparables he based your appraisal on. What, you thought banks pay five figures to figure out the value (when an AVM just won’t do) when you give them a mortgage?

Or hey, try http://www.zoocasa.com/en/zoopraisal with the understanding that it assumes your house is in average condition for the neighbourhood.

#183 TNT on 10.17.12 at 8:54 pm

@ Canadian Watchdog

Curious as to your up take on the 1.4 Billion rounds of hollow point that homeland security recently purchased?

That’s it. You’re out. — Garth

#184 Westernman on 10.17.12 at 9:02 pm

Boombust @ # 98
What are you -10 years old? Money goes where it is treated best and that sure isn’t Canada.
Never get childish idealism and reality mixed up…

#185 Joe on 10.17.12 at 9:15 pm

Hey Garth, scotia just cut mortgage broker commissions 5 basis points on 5 year terms. Another lender did this as well last month. What gives?

#186 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 9:28 pm

#182 Ralph Cramdown on 10.17.12 at 8:51 pm

You appear to have it all figured out.

#187 Smoking Man on 10.17.12 at 9:34 pm

Gatho hurry up and get tomorrows post out, my post is getting Crazy big.

#188 AACI Okanagan on 10.17.12 at 9:42 pm

#125 };-) aka D.A. on 10.17.12 at 1:39 pm
I tell buyers and sellers what they NEED to know not what they WANT to know and certainly never an untruth. REALTORS deal in the realities of the market. We really don’t care if it is up or down. We check emotion at the door and bring logic to the table.
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Now if only you can apply that on here.

#189 Ex-Cowtown on 10.17.12 at 9:49 pm

One look at the # of Comments posted by D A confirms what GT is saying. The market sucks and is getting suckier. How can you tell?

D A has WAAAYYYY to much time on his hands.

If the market was anywhere near as strong as D A says it is he’d be working not dicking around on his computer.

#190 alien88 on 10.17.12 at 9:51 pm

#32 darcy:

The only book you have to read is: “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing,” by John C. Bogle, who, of course, created the Vanguard index funds.

#191 daystar on 10.18.12 at 6:00 pm

I just feel compelled to expand on the U.S. economy and budgetary choices if anyone is interested.

The U.S. federal deficit is now at 16 trillion. Collective state debt is at $4.2 trillion. Not counting municpalities, U.S. gross public debt is at $20.2 trillion. The U.S. treasury however, has $2.7 trillion in assets taking this number down to $17.5 trillion. Factor in last years GDP at $15.09 trillion and we wind up with a gross public debt to GDP at 115%. (lost the links, not going to recreate because of time but these numbers are accurate) Its not great but its better than Italy.

If the U.S. is to return to fiscal federal balance over 4 years, this is what I believe they will have to do:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Receipts_-_FY_2007.png

Personal income taxes will have to increase by say… 31% over 4 years and this will generate $338 billon extra per year.

Corporate tax rates are at 8%. If it was raised to 10%, it would mean an extra $45 billion. There really isn’t anywhere else to go in terms of tax increases, the net result being $383 billion and reducing the deficit. There are tax loopholes for the rich that can be closed, potentially get rid of tax exemptions for mortgage interest that could generate an extra $90 billion per year, they could increase capital gains taxes but the long and short is that peronsal tax increases are needed however it happens and it has to come from the rich if they are to have any hope towards balance.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/U-S-Government-Posts-Fourth-Largest-Deficit-3957450.php

So the U.S. deficit is at 1.09 trillion and realistic tax increases on income brings us $383 billion closer leaving us $707 billion short. Lets look at expenditures:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2011.png

This is why the U.S. election is so important. Mitt Romney wants to lower income taxes by 20% straight across the board. Presumably, this comes with the end of Bush’s tax cuts, not a continuation and what that means is that they essentially remain unchanged from where they are today so tax revenues stay flat and rely solely on growth and major cuts towards balance. Is that possible? Only if Mitt axes public spending on health care entirely and end all wars. He won’t set an end date to war in the middle east and he won’t tell the public how he’s going to be able to get fiscal deficits under control other than to say he’ll cut taxes by 20% for everyone.

Would you vote for that? I wouldn’t because if he’s a war monger and faces revolt from axing public medicare reversing his ground on spending cuts to social programs, Mitt would just add another 4 to 5 trillion to federal debt and at that point I would think the fat lady begins to sing for the U.S. economy and the gold greeders and doomers get to enjoy watching a crumbling empire they seem to cheer for.

If Obama wins we are likely to see tax increases with the numbers I’ve given within 4 years, the end to a middle east war that lowers $280 billion in discretionary spending and with a modest 15% cut in defence spending save a further $100 billion.

So… if my math is correct, $383 billion in new tax revenues followed by $380 billion in spending reductions leaves us at $763 billion or roughly $330 billion short. Can the U.S. make up this $330 billion shortfall through GDP growth over 4 years? YES! If their GDP grew from $15.1 trillion to 16.75 trillion, that would generate the extra $330 billion needed assuming social spending was frozen from where it is today. If social spending grows by another $100 billion, GDP needs to grow another $500 billion to cover the growth in expenses but a $17.25 trillion GDP is still achievable over 4 years (but there is still the wild card of higher rates and I believe Bernanke won’t allow that to happen until their economy can generate the growth needed to offset higher rates).

This is why we need to pay attention as Canadians to U.S. politics. Depending on who wins, we could see a very different future for the U.S. in every respect from fiscal and foreign to social policy and I would have to think that if Romney wins and delivers on his tax cuts and ends public medicare there will be no fiscal difference between the two but socially the poor and middle class will be hurt tremendously when it comes to health care in favor of tax cuts. If Romney is a warring president like Bush was, its likely that the U.S. economy could hit the tipping point of no return or Q.E. to infinity, a false economy that can only be rescued by protectionism from there and Canadians best take note. If Romney wins and heads to war with Iran, Harper will join him and we’ll be headed into that same war.

If, on the other hand Obama wins and introduces the needed tax increases it takes combined with the end to wars and a 15% cut in defence spending and can generate job growth and recovery through commodities (agriculture which I predict will remain strong from the effects of global warming, coupled with the return to the U.S. becoming an oil and gas export nation), its still possible, barring any drama with interest rates, that the fed could return to fiscal balance.

If anyone’s taken the time to read this at least they might get a little extra from that third and final presidential debate before the election.

Oh, and for some entertainment value, Jesse for 2016.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7WGMGHNHfw