Winniplop

“I’m in my late 20s,” Pat says, “and have been watching friend after friend take the plunge, regularly bidding 10% or more over asking price. Note that many are single women who make between $30-$40,000. It’s incredible the pressure I am under.”

When I posted Pat’s comment four months ago, Winnipeg was on fire. Figuratively, I mean, besides being the arson capital of Canada. House prices had surged, there was only a two-month supply of homes for sale (compare that to 20 months right now in parts of Vancouver), cranes were bring new downtown condos, and realtors were prairie rock stars.

My report on The Peg showed that a decade ago the average house sold for $95,000. Now it’s $245,000. Detached homes fetch over $300,000, and the city’s ringed with subdivisions where new builds are $500,000 and up. Real estate has appreciated by 158% in ten years, eclipsing even Vancouver. Demand seems insatiable. Last Spring, for example, there were only 27 houses for sale (out of 3,000) between $180,000 and $300,000 – in a place where the average family earns just under $75,000.

In the summer just about everybody I talked to in Winnipeg said the same thing. You know what… “It’s different here.” The reason given for non-stop housing horniness was immigration, and a paucity of rental housing. Why would people from around the world flock to a place with minus-forty winters, Olympic-sized bugs and empty nothingness beyond the last city streetlight? I have no idea.

But no bother. Seems they’ve stopped coming. Kinda like the non-Ham in Vancouver and condogeddon in Toronto.

Last month sales crumbled by 14%, while the number of listings has increased 3.5%. That two-month supply of houses is now 3.5 months – still low by national standards, but an increase of  75%. Obviously something is happening to bring demand to its knees while bloating supply.

“We are watching the market carefully, especially since other markets across the country have been experiencing these kinds of drops in activity for a few months.” Says real estate board boss Shirley Przybyl. “Other real estate boards are attributing the slow down directly to the Federal Government reducing the amortization period for mortgages from 30 years to 25 years in an attempt to ensure consumers’ debt load is controlled. Other markets have found that this adjustment negatively impacts first time buyers and causes demand to weaken. We will watch this closely as the year winds down to see if Winnipeg is starting to experience the same trend.”

But, Shirl, there no need to watch and wait. We all know what’s happening in Winnipeg is exactly what’s now transpiring in most markets. Months ago this pathetic blog blurted out the obvious: given record high prices, debt obesity and crappy income gains, all it would take to crash housing everywhere was a tweak in financing. And we got it. Shorter mortgages, no cash-backs and tighter borrowing regs for the virgins did the trick.

Turns out it’s not different in Winnipeg, where even hockey has left town. It’s worse.

Where first-time buyers make up about 20% of the national real estate market, in The Peg it’s an astonishing 45%.  This means the market is hugely exposed to correction, thanks to F’s War on the House, launched last April, which took effect with a vengeance on July 9th. As I’ve said often enough to bore even me, killing off that 30-year mortgage had the same effect as raising mortgages by almost 1% and in so doing knocked about a fifth of all potential buyers out of the market.

But let’s not lay all the blame at the tiny, perfect feet of the diminutive demigod. Winnipeggers also shoulder blame, as do people living in the other bubble cities. The unsupported run-up in prices brought on by vendor greed, realtor pumping, idiot virgin buyers, voracious mortgage lenders, predatory bankers and rotating helo-parents is equally at fault. The proof is simple, and clear. All it took was the equivalent of a 0.9% interest rate rise to screw over housing. So just imagine what’s in store when rates are two or three per cent higher.

How bad are things? This bad: Veritas Development Group built a 10-unit condo project in a downtown heritage building. How many have sold? None. So the builders gave up, and have rented out nine, keeping one as a display unit.

Not far off the new H2O condo development is under construction with fetching views of the river and the downtown, bringing 43 units to the market, priced from $200,000 to $350,000. So far, only two have sold. Says the builder: “I just don’t know why they’re not selling.” So, he’s converting them to rentals.

Now, maybe you don’t care about Winnipeg. Or Victoria. Saskatoon, Richmond, Kelowna, London, Montreal, Vancouver, Edmonton or Halifax. But you should. Every market is reacting to the same set of stresses, and in each demand is falling while supple snakes up. The bottomless pool of qualified buyers that cheap mortgage rates created has dried up suddenly and decisively. The meme is turning negative. Real estate’s started to sting.

Nobody should be surprised. Everybody is. And this is but foreplay, even with your socks on.

190 comments ↓

#1 Socrates Berlin on 10.11.12 at 9:16 pm

It’s different here in London,Ontario till it is not. First!

#2 T.O on 10.11.12 at 9:18 pm

I am the first, good luck to the rest.

#3 Doug -o on 10.11.12 at 9:23 pm

Hmm – 14% is hardly ‘crumbling’, but agree on your sentiment.

#4 TeruTeru on 10.11.12 at 9:25 pm

It will be an interesting Winter!

#5 John on 10.11.12 at 9:26 pm

In the summer just about everybody I talked to in Winnipeg said the same thing. You know what… “It’s different here.” The reason given for non-stop housing horniness was immigration, and a paucity of rental housing. Why would people from around the world flock to a place with minus-forty winters, Olympic-sized bugs and empty nothingness beyond the last city streetlight? I have no idea.

But no bother. Seems they’ve stopped coming. Kinda like the non-Ham in Vancouver and condogeddon in Toronto.
——–

Why would people flock there? You have no idea? And now you don’t know about why they’ve stopped? You also don’t know why houses went up 158% in Winnipeg from the time cheap credit flooded the entire world in earnest (2002-2012).

You just can’t seem to find that money trail eh?

Any guesses on this housing bubble thing then? A shot in the dark maybe?

Quite a mystery this whole Canadian housing bubble. Even houses in Labrador City doubled more or less in the same time period. Wow. They did the same in Australia and a bunch of other countries.

They must have incompetent finance ministers who were all incompetent at the same time. Yeah, that’s what it was. Overly coincidental, but these things happen.

#6 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 9:28 pm

Anytime a developer takes his condo project and converts such into rental units the writing is on the wall, and it says, ” All Over. “

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.11.12 at 9:29 pm

I think this tells the Winnipeg story:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12419600&PidKey=248082926

$1,350,000 for 23 units in 2 buildings!
($60k each)

#8 Tim on 10.11.12 at 9:31 pm

Vancouver has a very low vacancy rate and the rental choices are quite limited. Thanks to our inept politicians, who have encouraged the over-building of condos at the expense of building decent rental housing, many struggle to find a good rental unit. Won’t this lack of decent rentals help to prop up the condo prices in Vancouver?

#9 AgAu on 10.11.12 at 9:42 pm

Hi Garth,

Thank you for your tireless perseverance in posting useful and informative blogs. Are you planning to come to Ottawa and give a presentation?

Thanks,
AgAu

#10 Fisc on 10.11.12 at 9:45 pm

Garth,

What do you think of the news of the day??:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/market-blog/market-view-video/video-market-view-why-the-housing-market-might-be-worse-than-expected/article4605379/?from=4603237

#11 Toon Town Boomer on 10.11.12 at 9:47 pm

Every market is reacting to the same set of stresses, and in each demand is falling while supple snakes up

NOTE: Garth did include Saskatoon in that line up.

#12 Bo Xilai on 10.11.12 at 9:48 pm

Shirley Przybyl? How do you even say that last name?

What kind of family name has no vowels?

#13 Bo Xilai on 10.11.12 at 9:49 pm

Whevenever I go to Winnipeg on business, I always wonder where the nice parts of town are…

I still haven’t found any.

#14 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 9:50 pm

The solution is simple for those that got caught in this bubble, as look at your capital position with a clear mind, as not all areas in Canada will deflate equally, so do you sell or sit? Those that are leveraged highly in certain areas should sell out, and rent for a better day, as this is a complex equation. So if you see the grim reaper coming depending upon your location and personal situation, it is imperative to take action.

#15 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 9:57 pm

One of the secretes to success is don’t dabble in crap you know nothing about.

I don’t know anything about, Victoria, Vancouver, Winnipeg etc, I know the 416, hence my posts.

I never talk about those markets cause frankly, I don’t live their and could care less.

Stocks, Bonds, Treasuries, HFT Guru here!!!!!

Why would a self prof-fest zillionair( who doesn’t mind fibbing once in a while) sell all his real estate, and buy a little crappy bungalow in Long Branch? and fake poverty? Best upside in Canada

I retied at 51, that’s why, and if I’m going to buy something always buy low, with a huge up side.

I can buy cash, almost any boat in any Toronto Harbour. It took me 1.5 years before I bought a shity new little 20ft Tahoe for 17k. Why?

I’m wired to buy low sell high. It’s a habit. same boat at bass pro shop, 25K.

Why would I go back to tax farm slavery on bay street?

A friend, a CIO type called and begged me to help him out, now I said no about 10 times on other calls, he was in a bit of trouble this time. I Said ok. Sadly I was to late to save his ass.

The deal, part time, work from home mostly. and I thought, wife has a gambling problem, so it will be her cash. I’m not a bad shit.

So I meet the guy who I will be working for. Love this dude. The second I met him, he was a mini me 15 years younger. Bull in a china shop.

My motivation was to get in and pay back some ass holes, and get revenge on the ones that pissed me off last go around.

It took me 2 months to find out that the CIO took care of those ass holes, few months after I left.

I was so back into the bay street scene.

Loyalty to the ones that are loyal back is all that counts.

Where the hell am I going with this post?

Ok time for coffee.

#16 dd on 10.11.12 at 9:58 pm

What housing uptick in the US?

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/clip_image00212.jpg

Looks like one to me. — Garth

#17 randman on 10.11.12 at 10:00 pm

New Buzzword…”Financial Repression”

Get use to it…..coming to a frozen tundra near you!

” Economists, market analysts, journalists and investors alike are all talking about it quite openly, generally in a calm and reserved tone that suggests that – to borrow a phrase from Bill Gross – it represents the ‘new normal’. Something that simply needs to be acknowledged and analyzed in the same way we e.g. analyze the supply/demand balance of the copper market. It is the new buzzword du jour: ‘Financial Repression’.

The term certainly sounds ominous, but it is always mentioned in an off-hand manner that seems to say: ‘yes, it is bad, but what can you do? We’ve got to live with it.’

But what does it actually mean? The simplest, most encompassing explanation is this: it describes various insidious and underhanded methods by which the State intends to rob its citizens of their wealth and income over the coming years (and perhaps even decades) above and beyond the already onerous burden of taxation and regulatory costs that is crushing them at present. ”

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=19934

#18 Mike on 10.11.12 at 10:02 pm

city budgets will be crushed

no more cash from developers

here in K-town (Kelowna) we have enjoyed more than 10 years of housing gains

that paid for a lot of stuff

lots of mistakes too :(

I think those days are behind us now

#19 Tim on 10.11.12 at 10:03 pm

Tories commit 16 Million to Ads While Cutting Programs:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/conservatives-commit-16-million-action-plan-ads-while-200606843.html

looking after Canadians…lol

#20 The end is nigh on 10.11.12 at 10:15 pm

Here on Richmond, Developers are becoming landlords,too.
And “build to suit”signs are popping up.
The almighty Developers are running scared, the Chinese investors are cashing out.

#21 Hugh Jasz on 10.11.12 at 10:15 pm

I recently heard about a contest.

Grand prize was a trip to Winnipeg.
Second prize was two trips to Winnipeg.

In all seriousness, I recently had an opportunity to transfer from the Big Smoke to the ‘Peg.

They flew me out for a look around. I ended up offering to pay them back for the flight saying thanks / no thanks.

Drivers:
-I like four seasons. “Winter” and “Blackflies” is only two.

-Parts looked scarier than the worst of Toronto’s hoods (Downtown East, Jane-Finch, Rexdale, Kingston-Markham-Eglinton, Galloway).

-Wasn’t going to be able to own or rent adequate shelter for much/any less than GTA.

-I could maybe eventually get behind the Jets, but would never shed hatred for the Bombers! The Jets weren’t even around when I made the decision. I’m a sports fan and CFL + Junior/Minor Pro Hockey alone don’t cut it.

In short, I saw all the plight of being in a big city, with few of the cultural/entertainment benefits. It also wasn’t like I was settling for a crappy medium sized city that was only like 100miles from the nearest big city…….if you’re at that approximate longitude, Winnipeg is it because there ain’t even anything much South of the border!

Anyway, with only a token raise + moving expenses offered, the grass certainly seemed greener on my side, so here I am in my comfortable rut. Pretty sure I’m happier than I would have been.

Still can’t believe housing gained 150% in ten years. The effect of low downpayments, ridiculous ammort. periods, and 2.9% financing is unbelievable.

#22 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 10.11.12 at 10:16 pm

Yes, a massive slowdown is taking place. Yesterday my neighbour received three unsolicited emails from a real estate agent offering her, as a “VIP client” an “awesome incentive for being one of the first to buy (discounted price, and discounted parking and locker).” The emails included floor plans for 300 sq. ft. units in a new high rise on Dundas East in Regent Park. She thinks she may have requested information four years ago about another project out of curiosity (she has no intention of buying) and he is finally getting back to her. The living/sleeping rooms are about the size of her bedroom in the 850 sq. ft. apartment she currently rents. Madness.

#23 Victor on 10.11.12 at 10:21 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/lenders-battled-regulator-about-crackdown-on-home-equity-borrowing/article4607656/

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty took steps to rein in the growth of home equity lines of credit early last year, saying that the government would no longer guarantee mortgage insurance on them. Prior to that, such lines of credit and mortgage refinancings surged to $64-billion in 2010 from $8-billion in 2001.

This March, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) proposed tightening up its standards as part of new mortgage underwriting guidelines.

It announced the final changes in June. While OSFI asked federally-regulated banks to comply with the changes immediately if possible, they are required to do so by the end of their fiscal year. For the big banks that’s the last day of this month.

#24 Canadian Watchdog on 10.11.12 at 10:25 pm

#8 Tim

“Vancouver has a very low vacancy rate and the rental choices are quite limited.”

Errrgh. Try again. Vancouver Rental Vacancy Rates And for those who believed the “Toronto has a low vacancy rate” propaganda, look what else I found buried deep down in CMHC’s terminated archives.

Doesn’t look that bullish now does it.

#25 Steve on 10.11.12 at 10:27 pm

On top of all the points you mentioned, Winnipeg’s economy is dominated almost exclusively by the government sector. This presents a problem when our provincial government is running a $1.12 billion deficit and our spending madness is underwritten largely by federal transfers and equilization. Manitoba has 113 provincial and local government employees per 1,000 people (national avg = 84). Public sector pay at the provincial level is 50% higher than the average in the MB private sector.

If the Feds cut transfers like in the 90s, we face massive cutbacks. Some cuts will be forced anyway. This will turn the triple whammy of debt, interest rates and credit contraction into a quadruple whammy.

Soon we will re-live the Filmon era where you can buy a house from a fired burecrat leaving the province for next to nothing.

Watch the news going forward.

#26 Saskatoon-Living on 10.11.12 at 10:27 pm

Great post Garth! I’m seeing more and more houses go up for sale here in S’toon and they’re sitting on the market for longer and longer. Price reductions are happening.

#27 Charles Ponzi on 10.11.12 at 10:28 pm

Forget the foreplay. We have been waiting long enough–we want it now.

#28 DJIM on 10.11.12 at 10:35 pm

Tell Shirley to buy a vowel.

#29 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 10:35 pm

#16 dd on 10.11.12 at 9:58 pm
What housing uptick in the US?
Looks like one to me. — Garth

Gartho. you know I love you man.

But the USA housing rebound is BS , so is the Jobs Data.

I just bet against it big time. and in 3 short days (SHORT) I have made 3 years WORTH OF LaughingCon salary. and the trades have a long way to go.

See previous posts.

Are Your pals downtown following the great SM, hope so, they will do good. and will owe you big time.

#30 Winnie Peg on 10.11.12 at 10:45 pm

Winnipeg articles that Garth mentioned:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/a-tough-slog-for-first-time-homebuyers-173650471.html

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/buyers-not-biting-downtown-173241791.html

#31 Mister Obvious on 10.11.12 at 10:49 pm

#8 Tim

“Vancouver has a very low vacancy rate and the rental choices are quite limited.”

Not so Tim (as #24 Canadian Watchdog pointed out).

There’s plenty of stuff for rent in Vancouver but much of it is crap in the $1600/mo range. You need to get to the $2500/mo range to get a decent place.

Still, that’s a huge bargain compared to purchasing an equivalent condo. That will likely get you professional management too. You really will want that.

#32 Canadian Watchdog on 10.11.12 at 10:49 pm

Garth, when were you on Fox News?

#33 Maverick on 10.11.12 at 10:51 pm

I wonder if Toronto will become like Niagara falls New York . I no a Real estate agent who payed $7,000 dollars
for a house in Niagara falls New York .

#34 Tim on 10.11.12 at 10:51 pm

Send HAM to the Peg and problem will be solved!

#35 TnT on 10.11.12 at 10:59 pm

Winnipeg

Sounds like a contest for pirates!

Win A Peg!

#36 Mister Obvious on 10.11.12 at 11:00 pm

I took a spin through New Westminster, Burnaby and Vancouver today.

Ground breaking is underway for many new developments. The construction industry in these parts seems utterly fearless.

All the while, thousands of condos are just ready to come online along Vancouver’s 2nd Avenue and around Burnaby’s Metrotown area.

It’s quite baffling really. There’s no apparent slowdown in sight. Makes ya wonder…

#37 TNT on 10.11.12 at 11:00 pm

Winnipeg the place bad weather goes to die, and where bad decisions won’t.
Careful don’t get Pegged.

#38 Min in Mission on 10.11.12 at 11:03 pm

I have seen the prices in my ‘hood drop by an easy 30K over the last 6 months. And I don’t think that the market has bottomed out yet. And there are getting to be more and more SFHs and condos for sale. And staying for sale longer and longer.

And just to share some personal info, even after foreplay I like to keep my socks on!!

#39 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 11:07 pm

#33 Maverick – do not say a word to Smoking Man, but the end group called ‘ The Grass Roots ‘ will be at the Bear’s Den in Niagara Falls, NY on 11/24/12.

#40 Jonno on 10.11.12 at 11:08 pm

Tim check Craigslist there is tons of rentals in Van….rate in my building are dropping some prices are crazy check mls many over priced rentals are flippers in trouble they won’t get the rents they want.

#41 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 11:09 pm

The dude that runs Home Depot, My huge short

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-long-way-true-housing-214421323.html?l=1

Sounds like desperation to me, and pushing blame cause his share holders are about to be. Hum its going to be a nasty crash HD share holders a nasty crash. Not my fault.

Dude your company has done nothing in 12 months, yet your stock price has doubled. Bye Bye.

mu hahahahahah

And for you track 6ers the chart.

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=hd

#42 Maverick on 10.11.12 at 11:13 pm

Seen from the movie the The Money Pit (4/9) Movie CLIP
Very REAL estate-ish and very true http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CJ9EDtZ2p8

#43 Maverick on 10.11.12 at 11:18 pm

THE MONY PIT PART 1 THE DOWN PAYMENT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LY5dV3xghY&feature=relmfu

#44 KingBubbles on 10.11.12 at 11:19 pm

I live in Winnipeg and this post is quite acccurate. My coworkers, most of whom are first time buyers who bought in 2010, seem kind of quiet at coffee these days and a few even admit that prices might go down and appear to be eating some humble pie. Quite the change from a couple years ago when they seemed to know everything.

I currently rent and have noticed a big increase in the amount of rentals available and even the odd price reduction. Again, quite the change from a couple years ago when landlords frequently had potential renters show up at the same time to instill a bidding war.

Winnipeg is a great city to live in (provided you survive the first winter). But there is no way prices should have increased in Winnipeg more than Vancouver’s.

#45 squidly77 on 10.11.12 at 11:27 pm

Keep whacking em down Canadian Watchdog. You are unstoppable. The facts that this good man provides are undeniable.

Cheers man.

#46 squidly77 on 10.11.12 at 11:35 pm

And by the way, if more people spent their OWN time FREELY like the true Pit Bull (Watch Dog) we would all be living in a better place.
More than one in five Canadian workers suffer from depression

Listen to a blow hard realtor that says he knows best and risk entering the dark, depressing world of the 20%. Realtors know squat, just ask Emili.

#47 AprilNewwest on 10.11.12 at 11:41 pm

$38 Man in Mission. Why would you even think the market is close to the bottom. The decline has only begun… a long way to bottom … years!

#48 Nick on 10.11.12 at 11:42 pm

~~~ Welcome to “Winneplop”! ~~~

“We can’t afford our own real estate, what’s your excuse?”

Thank you, Garth, for doing another post on Winnipeg! It’s been too long since the last one. We’ve all been waiting with bated breath for this.

By the way, you can probably trademark “Winneplop”, since the city’s actually spelled “Winnipeg”.

Also, HAM means something different in Winnipeg – it stands for “Higgins and Main”. Not exactly a prime location if you know what I mean.

I’m not that surprised that property virgins make up more the double the average number of sales nationally. This city’s not big enough to make it worth it to sell your house and move to another house within the city. Once people buy a house here they tend to stay put. I bet the market is more likely to crash because the buyers just disappear altogether for a while rather than everybody bailing at the same time, if that makes any sense. It only takes one sale to affect the price of every house on the block, right?

#49 squidly77 on 10.11.12 at 11:43 pm

Thanks must be given to you too Garth. The shoes that you walk in have seen much abuse and many threats. I do know. It takes SS balls to run an anti real estate cartel blog (mafia), it certainly isn’t for the easily scared or intimidated.

#50 squidly77 on 10.11.12 at 11:47 pm

Your nemises site that insulted and spoke poorly of you over 1,000 times in a 365 day period has gone expectly silent. The heat is on.

#51 Jan on 10.11.12 at 11:50 pm

Wanna buy a $3 mil home ? Look inside for details…

——————————————————————————–

——————————————————————————–

Here is an interesting tidbit of information… did you know there are more homes for sale just in Vancouver for a million dollars or more than there are are million dollar homes for sale in ALL of the United States? That’s how whacked our housing market is.

#52 Elmer on 10.11.12 at 11:53 pm

Who cares about Winnipeg. Post more about Toronto.

#53 MarcFromOttawa on 10.11.12 at 11:54 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-community/trading-shots/its-a-dogs-life-for-canadian-index-investors/article4592614/

#54 JSS on 10.12.12 at 12:00 am

Contrary to the tone of this article, Winnipeg is a nice city. If you get a chance to go there, check out Assiniboine Park, the Forks, Exchange District, as well as the beautiful beaches, and Kenora, ON.

Mosquitoes, bad weather, and real estate lust is not only found in Winnipeg, but in all Canadian cities.

But I do agree – Winnipeg’s real estate prices should not have increased to the level that it’s at.

#55 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.12.12 at 12:03 am


“But let’s not lay all the blame at the tiny, perfect feet of the diminutive demigod. Nobody should be surprised. Everybody is. And this is but foreplay, even with your socks on. Turns out it’s not different in Winnipeg, where even hockey has left town. It’s worse.” — H, F and C are bad enough, but to lose hockey? That’s sacrilege!
*
#228 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 8:42 pm — Most of them are a bunch of crooks, but I guess that’s the only way to get ahead these days.

Remember them from a long time ago? Time flies when you’re having fun! Also, New single from the Stones. These guys just keep on rocking. Cheers!
*
1:45 clip Jobless claims confusion. One state wasn’t even counted; London, UK Parasite’s paradise; US – UK Heating bills are rising at the onset of winter, and British Gas Doncha jes’ luv these rate hikes? Secession from the EZone? If one goes, they all go; Nigel Farage Gotta admire a person who stands up to be counted; Rumbles of student debt bubble; Iran Forces behind currency crisis; Two clips on Ayn Rand; Corporate Canada’s pension hole; Composting Capitalism; Good question from 1975; Walmart worker strikes go viral; Outsourcing Jobs Antithesis of NAFTA; RBC You’re richer than you think by living a debt-free life.

AMD PC sales sinking. New technology? Fiscal Cliff Thought we had already gone over the edge; Rare Earth Metals and how they’re used; 12 States buried in 4closures; Here is where the creme de la creme live, and I’m not referring to BPOE; Great ad for Romney; Facebook Sweetheart tax deal in UK.
*
Used Enema Kits What’s a butt between friends? Anorexia Cases up in UK, many children; Lady Luck at gas pumps; Polar Bears Cute and cuddly? Not! Obomba dumped by money men; Russia – Pakistan – US; Survivalists Humanity doesn’t need this tea pot of a planet. All it is is an excellent classroom; 11 New Species beiing introduced to the world; Better Life in Canada?

#56 squidly77 on 10.12.12 at 12:03 am

CATCH!!

That’s what the watch dog says to every deluded real estate bull in Canada, after he tosses hand grenade after hand grenade their way.

#57 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 10.12.12 at 12:11 am

18 years living in Canada. Never been to Winnipeg.
1 year in Europe? Been everywhere.

It’s different over here. For sure. Not real estate, but everything else….

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2011/12/at-christmas-market-in-salzburg.html

#58 syfon on 10.12.12 at 12:15 am

Przybyl is fine with me

#59 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 10.12.12 at 12:19 am

They should pay people to buy ‘Peg homes…I wouldn’t want to be caught dead there.

PS GPS says SmoKingKong Man is nearby…….time to get the bait….

#60 TRT on 10.12.12 at 12:44 am

Listing’s explode by 3.5% and sales crumble 14%….months of inventory 3.5 months….

Sigh… My weight exploded by 2.2% after going to the Keg.

#61 lookoutbelow on 10.12.12 at 12:45 am

Garth, time to do a post on CMHC.

I am sure you saw the Page 1 story in The Globe and Mail on the now famous EMILI database run by CMHC that the lenders use to assess how risky a given mortgage is. Using EMILI is supposed to bypass actual appraisals done by qualified appraisers.

Apparently, EMILI has been overestimating prices of real estate across the country, meaning that the lenders have lent out too much money and the collateral is not worth as much as EMILI says it is.

Bad girl.

#62 Soylent Green is People on 10.12.12 at 12:49 am

Who taughtvyou about meme?

#63 Margaret on 10.12.12 at 12:51 am

@ smoking man; you can’t be all that smart – you could care less? Meaning you still have the room to care less? So you must care somewhat. Otherwise you couldn’t care less, meaning your care level is at zero.

#64 house burden on 10.12.12 at 12:57 am

Pretty soon the market will be flooded with rentals and the existing and basement suite will be flooded with competition meaning lower rental units.

I’ve seen this story playout before, except this time with government screwing up the natural cycle of the free market, were got a housing market on steriods.

#65 This is Wonderland on 10.12.12 at 1:00 am

#32Canadian Watchdog

LOL! keep em coming watchdog!

#66 greed on 10.12.12 at 1:14 am

You are an idiot.
And still a big time blow hard and as much as you blow all you can come up with is an example of a 10 unit development that for many reasons has not sold.

Get a real job again, fooling the public either in the newspaper field or poltics both suit you like a seer sucker suit in the 1920’s.

#67 Aaron - Melbourne on 10.12.12 at 1:22 am

At least you guys have F and the Peckerettes. As misguided and slow to shut the gate as they were, they finally came through with macro-prudential tools necessary to slow things down.

Downunder, with a bubble to rival the best Canada can offer, we have these luminaries cutting rates but without the comprehension to temper the demand through similar changes.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10/rba-slams-macroprudential-tools/

#68 Yep.....uh huh..... on 10.12.12 at 1:33 am

Hey Garth, 

Average family income = 75k
Average home price = 245k

It’s just over 3x annual income. Isn’t that within the golden rule of affordability? It’s not that out of whack.

#69 Robert on 10.12.12 at 2:11 am

#5. I suspect it was an undeclared currency war on the Yuan, a ploy to keep the Post 911 US economy ticking long enough to keep the incumbent Bush in office to launch the Middle East War Project, and a way to fog memories of the pillaging of the pensions during the Dot Comm scams. Why would anyone object when we’d all finally become real estate millionaires?

#70 Click Here, its different on 10.12.12 at 2:44 am

#15 smoking

Your post contain 25 “I”, “I’m”, “my”, “me”.

Just sayin.

#71 David on 10.12.12 at 2:46 am

The Peg is the best place in Canada from Victoria Day to Labour Day. Beaches and sun and pure white sand a short drive away.
Look at the good side, there is smoked goldeye and smoke prime rib beef strips with maple blueberry sauce and city rye bread with butter.
This bubble will pass.

#72 Humpty Dumpty on 10.12.12 at 3:44 am

Hasn’t stung this bad… Yet….

The Chinese Communist Party promotes officials who deliver growth seemingly at any cost, and land development for roads, factories, residential complexes and so on is seen as the most direct path to visible results,”

Sound familiar…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-
19894292

#73 TRT on 10.12.12 at 3:52 am

For Vancouver: sales so far in higher in Oct than Sept. No correction yet. We’ll know in 97 days…

#74 Freedom First on 10.12.12 at 3:53 am

Listened to the Dave Ramsey show on the radio show this week. Said he is against all debt, but if you are beyond able to control house hornyness, buy a place where mortgage cost is no more than 1/4 of your net income, or wait until you can afford at this ratio His buying requirement is even tougher than Garth’s. I am all in favor of no debt, diversity, being liquid,cash, cash flow and buying things of value when markets crash by huge amounts. Not interested in buying any other time. I have no rush, and the pay is good. I had to learn this as I started as a teenager with nothing. Having 1 paper bag of clothes as my net worth was a wonderful way to start. Instant financial education. Worked well for me.

#75 TRT on 10.12.12 at 3:59 am

#36 mister obvious:

A jumbo jet lands every 24 hours at YVR bringing new migrants. They need a place to sleep. Hence the new developments. Do the Math! Don’t be swayed by vested interests.

#76 Petr.Syk on 10.12.12 at 4:23 am

Thanks Garth. First time posting here. I am regretfully a Winnipeger (living elsewhere for the time being) and I’ve had to teach many lessons to commenters on the Winnipeg Free Press website. Some ppl still think there’s a couple more years of this party. I throw a bucket of iced cold water on their face and tell them – Party’s Over.

#77 deja view? on 10.12.12 at 5:08 am

Vancouver RE..
Back in ’74 when I was going between working in a sawmill and getting an undergraduate degree, my landlord raised the rent on my 5 bdrm co-op house on a large lot at the UBC gates by 100 bucks/mo. He said to me, why don’t you buy it. I’ll sell it to you for 35K.
35K?? are you kidding, for this dump.. It needs a paint job! No thanks.

#78 Picasso on 10.12.12 at 5:13 am

NOWHERE IN CANADA IS REAL ESTATE APPRECIATING

The game is over….. the gig is up….. the last set is played….pack your bags.

#79 John on 10.12.12 at 5:52 am

Hugh Jasz wrote:

“Still can’t believe housing gained 150% in ten years. The effect of low downpayments, ridiculous ammort. periods, and 2.9% financing is unbelievable.”
———

That’s pretty much the most amazing thing I’ve ever read here. That about wraps this up.

#80 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.12.12 at 6:05 am

#20 The end is nigh on 10.11.12 at 10:15 pm
“Here on Richmond, Developers are becoming landlords,too.
And “build to suit”signs are popping up.
The almighty Developers are running scared, the Chinese investors are cashing out.”
______________

Who are the Chinese investors selling to?

#81 drydock on 10.12.12 at 6:15 am

Przybyl lives in the realm of unfortunate last names,like Lipshitz or Kuntstler.
A childhood of relentless persecution at school,leading to a job as secondhand car salesman,RE wonk or High School guidance counselor.

#82 Smoking Man on 10.12.12 at 7:01 am

What I love about Bay street.

Thur nights at the bars. Where master bullshiters try and out story tell each other. Naturaly you all know I’m pretty good at that game.

Its just as addictive as this pathetic blog.

#83 Darlene on 10.12.12 at 7:25 am

Wow an increase of 158% in ten years, talk about delusional pricing.

Here in Waterloo Region, we only got a 65% increase since 2003 and that’s been too much. 158% is really friggin delusional.

For anyone that’s interested, this is where I got my numbers from:

http://www.therecord.com/news/business/article/811521–regional-house-sales-drop-in-september

#84 Victor on 10.12.12 at 7:51 am

Video: Market View: Why the housing market might be worse than expected

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/market-blog/market-view-video/video-market-view-why-the-housing-market-might-be-worse-than-expected/article4605379/

#85 Bigrider on 10.12.12 at 8:01 am

Make sure you all get your vaccinations this winter for the
RE-101 Gottahumpahoma virus.

If infected, the damage it can do to your financial health will be lifelong and devastating.

The virus originates from the condo jungles of the GTA and it has been found that Asians, Italians, Russians, Persians ,young, old, rich and poor are all equally vulnerable.

#86 TurnerNation on 10.12.12 at 8:10 am

MLS is straining under the weight of the new listings! Realtors must be worried. It’s gonna be a lean Xmas.

Others have mentioned it, their regular MLS seaches are maxing out – too many listings.

Here’s mine, crazy C01 condos and the odd semi

http://tinyurl.com/9esr3s8

MAXXED OUT. So, when I visit, every few days, I set Show New Listings as of Date…and there are 50-100 new ones each time.

#87 maxx on 10.12.12 at 8:28 am

#13 Bo Xilai on 10.11.12 at 9:49 pm

River Heights, north of Corydon. Tons of circa 1900’s homes with huge character. But watch out for the basements and rippling floors. The sub-soil in the area is mainly clay and plays havoc with foundations.

#88 Nukester99 on 10.12.12 at 8:54 am

I have an idea to speed things along. Lets ALL put our houses up for sale at ridiculous prices. Having no intention of selling unless some greater fool comes along, the massive swamping of new listings certainly would help things along. Of course owning my house fully I am not worried about a drop in price as every time I have bought a new house I mainly considered the delta-dollars required to move from place to place along with the total moving costs. The “best” move was buying a new build that I knew was going to be delayed in a rising market. Price was locked in and the old place appreciated modestly. Yes, I am being nasty but the RE world deserves a good kick in the butt.

#89 Keen Observer on 10.12.12 at 8:59 am

Garth, Could you please comment on the waterfront, vacation home market across Canada. I am particularly interested in Georgian Bay, Muskoka and Prince Edward Island! I don’t think these are going to see much of a correction as sellors just tend to hold on and wait for their price. Places are often listed for a couple of years and then either sell for a bit less than asking or are taken off the market and maybe try again later. I think generally, people with vacation homes often inherit them or buy with little or no debt, so are not often in a position of being forced to sell. I am tired of waiting for my dream vacation home!

#90 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 10.12.12 at 9:09 am

I agree 100% with today’s blog.
I know a lot of friends one after the other who jumped into housing and this is after we all got the 2008 memo!
Hmmm… there are a couple 20 year olds who still don’t own, but anyone over that seems to.
Emergency level interest rated has done exactly the opposite of what should have been done – time to pay down debt.
I’ve seen the money for housing gifted (wit legit cash), parents HELOC’s being used, lots of co-signing, and no skin in the game at all or minimum 5% over the maximum amortization.
And talks about distorting markets with these low rates, a lot of renters are forced into the market when they aren’t ready, and the renting stigma continues.
The prices go up and up and now it’s the end of the line for that game, all based on easy money (and the monthly payment).
Finally, it’s true about the “empty nothingness beyond the last city streetlight” like that here is Moose Jaw as well, trees are rare. No forest city here.
Alright, enjoy your day everyone. (oh I get a kick out of Smoking Mans posts, entertaining).

#91 GTA Girl on 10.12.12 at 9:12 am

York region (Ont) has the highest property assessments in the province.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1270187–york-region-property-values-up-27-2-since-2008

27.2% since 2008. cities within such as Vaughan, stand over a 30% increase.

Of course there is no mention that York Region is billions in debt. Due to years of subsidizing development and pure mismanagement behind closed doors.

You have to question the motivating factors of this increase. There is far more to it than just math. They need to service the debt, and reached the limits of growth, and facing a slow market.

There are no benefits to living in this region. Will people start examining tax amounts when choosing where to live? The lean times coming will reflect the bad planning management and corruption that have gone unchecked during the boom years.

#92 Nukester99 on 10.12.12 at 9:16 am

Holy smoke. I just out of boredom did a quick MLS search in the Vancouver area. Since MLS won’t give you more than 500 hits, I had to go to $4,000,000 and up to find out there are 369 properties listed at that price point and UP. Strange observation was the vast majority of listing agents’ apparent ethnicity. The HAM agents are going to get slaughtered.

#93 Van Isle Renter on 10.12.12 at 9:17 am

U.S. house prices need a bit of a closer look. Are they climbing? Yes… but.

The # of foreclosures is dropping. That also looks good .. but…

Banks are delaying foreclosures, and this is driving up the house prices as it is merely holding properties off the market.

The U.S. government’s policy of buying toxic mortgages is making it more attractive for a bank to sell the crap to the government than to take the write-off.

The market isn’t getting better from any real market driven reasons, only through continued intervention.

The market really needs a good BM to clean itself out, but instead the fed is ensuring that it continues to have an impacted bowel.

And that full feeling that you get from an impacted bowel isn’t quite the same as the full feeling you get from a good meal.

#94 };-) aka D.A. on 10.12.12 at 9:25 am

You scarred the living crap out of me Garth that I had to do some database inquiries myself, only to find relief in that, while not yet half way through the month of October this month’s single family sale volumes exceed those of the same period last year by 24.14% (58 over 44) and the average price has jumped from $473,148 to $537,381. Now I realize 11 short days into the month is hardly enough to establish a trend so I looked deeper asking for this year to date. Imagine my surprise when that database inquiry revealed that this year we are outpacing last year’s single family residential sales volumes by a whopping 11.68% (1,781 over 1,573)!!!. I thought to myself “This can’t be so.. after all Garth told us just today that we are no different than Winnipeg”

Now, maybe you don’t care about Winnipeg. Or Victoria. Saskatoon, Richmond, Kelowna, London, Montreal, Vancouver, Edmonton or Halifax. But you should. Every market is reacting to the same set of stresses, and in each demand is falling while supple snakes up.

.

So I ran the database inquiry again, and again and yet again each time yielding the same result; Kelowna single family residential sales volumes are up 11.68% this year to date over last!!!

I was at a party last night where several of my REALTOR cohorts were complaining about a lack of business. I was at another function the just the day before where a couple of my banker friends were lamenting how hard this economy is on borrowers and the large numbers of foreclosures they are seeing. I began thinking maybe I am wrong, maybe I am immune, maybe I am blind, maybe I am missing something. And then it dawned on me… people tend to have a narrow field of vision most especially when you put any degree of carnage directly in front of them. While Winnipeg’s market may be made up of such an astonishing 45% of its market being first-time buyers Kelowna tends to buck that national trend of just 20% with a tad more than that (24%). But that’s not the reason Kelowna is holding up so well as that has abated to the mid-teens due to F’s new rules – which are actually a return to the old ones that should never have been pumped up in the first place.

What the bankers miss is that 28% of the Kelowna market which are ‘all cash’ buyers who never do cross the banks threshold looking for a mortgage. And then there are the 51% who have a 20% or more down payment – the bulk of which have substantially more. These two groups represent a whopping 79% of our market. High ratio borrowers and those needing rental income to qualify account for just 21% of our market. Could it be that my banker buddies are wearing blinders which impede their peripheral vision that they cannot see the enduring strength in the bulk of our economy? Could it be that my lamenting cohorts in the real estate industry simply long for those easy business, turkey shooting days gone by?

Seriously folks attitude is a BIG part of what you get out of life. Look for wreckage, carnage and horror and you can surely find it if not create and bestow it upon yourself. If you can’t find it just come to http://www.GreaterFool.com and Garth will dish out a hefty helping for you. There are always people doing poorly and there are always people doing well, no matter what the state of the economy. Every cloud has a silver lining.

While “F’s War on the House, launched last April, which took effect with a vengeance on July 9th” most certainly is perceived by most everyone in the industry as a hard hit while already on our knees I disagree. Lax lending, securitizing and liar loans are what led to the market mix-ups that fuelled the bubble of 2007/08. That was an absurd time. We needed a haircut badly – at least a trim. F is doing the right thing.

Many of us, Garth included, will remember not so long ago when what is becoming standard lending practice now was the norm then. Back then our markets survived and they will and are today. The elimination of Zero Down, the trashing of 30 year amortizations, the punting of first time buyers not really yet equipped to foray into property ownership is nothing of any serious consequence in the whole grand scheme of things. The elimination of those programs is a necessity we are learning. Yes they may be difficult for some to give up but give them up we must as – THEY JUST DO NOT WORK. The long term economic cost is not worth the short term benefit. Trust me, we will survive and be better for it.

As I keep repeating but no one seems to want to hear for their preoccupation with the carnage placed before them is; ‘this is not a departure from norm, this is a return to it’. We grow stronger through adversity. Experience is the best teacher of all and an education is a bargain at any price. We are moving forward, we are learning and we are, believe it or not, improving.

#95 Susan from London area on 10.12.12 at 9:27 am

#42 Maverick
OMG that brings back memories. I bought a money pit an big old farm house every time we turned around something else needed repairs, my plaster walls were weeping even for heavens sakes. We watched that movie and when the bathtub fell threw the ceiling my whole family laughed so hard we were crying. It was like thearapy

#96 Smoking Man on 10.12.12 at 9:27 am

Un fen real. Just as the technicals point to a meltdown on anything realated to us housing constrution .

BOOM. Jpm. Comes out with record earnings. Liers. Basterds.

This rigging is getting rediculous.

#97 Susan from London area on 10.12.12 at 9:28 am

Therapy what a great post thanks for the laugh.

#98 Doug in London on 10.12.12 at 9:37 am

Pat said: it’s incredible the pressure I am under.
Why would anyone be under pressure when those around you act foolishly but you refuse? I never felt like I was under pressure to buy gold in 1980, or tech stocks in early 2000.

#99 Steven Rowlandson on 10.12.12 at 9:45 am

Okay , now that people are starting to admit the obvious it is time for people to face the real ugly truth and that is that they are going to get financially nuked by falling real estate prices.
$10.25 an hour tradesmen and industrial workers can’t afford anything in real estate beyond $40,000 to $60,000 for a house and land. That is contingent on their pay rates not falling and no loss of jobs or hours. The great Canadian reality check is going to be painfull.

#100 AACI Okanagan on 10.12.12 at 9:46 am

#6 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 9:28 pm

Anytime a developer takes his condo project and converts such into rental units the writing is on the wall, and it says, ” All Over. “
————————————————————–

Not always true, some times the developer needs a cash flow to satisfy his lenders..

#101 TurnerNation on 10.12.12 at 9:47 am

So, they (builders) are “stupider” than realtors. That explains it! How can a vendor of anything not know why the product is not selling. It’s their job to know why.

“Says the builder: “I just don’t know why they’re not selling.” So, he’s converting them to rentals.”

#102 };-) aka D.A. on 10.12.12 at 9:57 am

#78deja view? on 10.12.12 at 5:08 am
Vancouver RE..
Back in ’74 when I was going between working in a sawmill and getting an undergraduate degree, my landlord raised the rent on my 5 bdrm co-op house on a large lot at the UBC gates by 100 bucks/mo. He said to me, why don’t you buy it. I’ll sell it to you for 35K.
35K?? are you kidding, for this dump.. It needs a paint job! No thanks.

My wife has a newspaper clipping from the Vancouver Sun not long after in which “YOUR $45,000 DREAM HOME?” is tag lined above what can only be described as a picture of a ramshackle pickers shack of a dwelling. She came to me then, crying,“we’ll never be able to own a home of our own at this rate.” That was 1980, we were still going to and paying for school while our brothers, sisters and friends had already four years of working under their belts and incomes with which to buy homes – we were renting. We finished school only to then be faced with horrific interest rates as our student loans carried 18%. The prospect of home ownership appeared to wane yet further distant from our grasp. How possibly would we amass the 25% down payment let alone be able to afford a home at the then unprecedented prices and then mortgage it at 18, 19, 20% interest?

Lessons learned. We thought then the world was an impossibly absurd place. Little did we know the opportunities that lay at our feet… Lessons learned…

#103 patiently Waiting on 10.12.12 at 10:02 am

Ran into a bank manager for RBC a few days ago. She said there is a very large (and growing) number of foreclosures in the Chilliwack area. Seems a lot of people took out big mortgages and can’t seem to make the payments . . . some are using the HELOC to make ends meet but are running out of room . . . even some of the top realtors are hurting pretty bad . . . much of this info is info is flying under the radar as no one wants the sheeple to get nervous . . .

#104 rainclouds on 10.12.12 at 10:07 am

#8 Tim

Uhhh stats please, Van vacancy rate is officially 3% Just sold the bung in BBy and secured a rental dtown No problemo. Lots of places and we took our time looking

#105 Timbo on 10.12.12 at 10:18 am

#69 Yep…..uh huh…..

Hey Garth,

Average family income = 75k
Average home price = 245k

It’s just over 3x annual income. Isn’t that within the golden rule of affordability? It’s not that out of whack.

Try the calculation again with Golden Debt load….

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/08/23/canada-debt-load-rise_n_1824089.html

The latest report of Canadian debt trends by TransUnion found the average consumer’s non-mortgage debt load rose another $192 to $26,221 in the second quarter — the highest average debt per person it has seen since it began tracking the variable in 2004.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49388260

“The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary October reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 83.1, up from 78.3 the month before, marking the highest level since September 2007.

The reading was well above the median forecast for a slight decline to 78 among economists polled by Reuters. ”

Light at the end of the tunnel! Lets go shopping……

#106 Need Sleep on 10.12.12 at 10:52 am

I was going to share this blog with friends, family, and co-workers here in Winnipeg via Facebook but figure what is the point. The Economist, Macleans, Moneysense, Canadian Business, etc and Garth’s blog share my contrarian view that Winnipeg homes are overpriced but most of my family and friends still think that is impossible. Prices were so low here before that they had to rise this high, right?

The Winnipeg Free Press reported yesterday about bidding wars. No stories about homes selling for less than the listed price or people constantly re-listing their homes which skews the days on market stats. A house near me has been listed again for this week for at least the 3rd time in the past few months. Comfree is advertising their fees on sale for $499 instead of $699…

I’ve lived in Winnipeg for 16yrs and I love this city. Winters are brutal but our city is full of trees, full of cultural events, full of non-stop activities and events for families. I love it. I can’t keep up with all the parks and places I want to take my kids to. Assiniboine Park and the Leo Mol sculpture garden are gorgeous, by the way. Poverty and crime are however rampant in parts of the city. You can really feel the inequality gap here.

Thanks for talking about Winnipeg, Garth! People still think it is different here.

#107 Smoking Man on 10.12.12 at 10:53 am

All my charts show a death cross.
Yet a new report out us confidence soars to record hights.

Biggest beat since 2005. Mu hahahahahah

Oh man the crap they to for obama.

Most people realizing that we are in full BS mode would just pick up the ball and go home.

For a Smoking Man this is where I shine.As a Master bullshiter anticipating the bullshit and betting on the anticipated recation to the bullshit is my zone.

Let’s trade be-outches

#108 David McDonald on 10.12.12 at 11:00 am

Hi Garth,

All this condo construction fueled by cheap money combined with falling prices will probably mean more rentals managed by people who would rather not be in that business. This brings us to another government folly, rent control which has driven most large professional landlords out of Ontario. It has made knowing the law more important than knowing how to fix a blocked drain thus driving away small but competent landlords. Combine the effect of these measures and we will have an extremely inefficient rental market.

That is not to say we should get rid of the rental board entirely. The inefficient system thus created will probably require at lot of dispute mediation.

#109 B P O E Sales Way Down on 10.12.12 at 11:07 am

Sales down and now the rain is falling, surely this will dampen sales further, the past 2 months has been extra nice here, now its run for cover time things are getting wet cold with no chance to sell RE

#110 jess on 10.12.12 at 11:17 am

i was wondering when the words change from investors to getting one’s ass kicked out of town

Speaking of archives
1982
http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/politics/provincial-territorial-politics/provincial-territorial-politics-general/ralph-kleins-bums-and-creeps.html

At a dinner in Calgary, Mayor Ralph Klein tells a group of newcomers that his city does not welcome “bums” and he’ll protect Calgarians from “a lot of creeps” looking for work. Newspapers across the country carry stories with the mayor’s statements attacking easterners. Klein denies the reports in this CBC Television clip, and says “the word I used was kick ass and get them out of town.”

Eastern Canadians flock to Boomtown — 2,600 new people arrived in Calgary last month — to find jobs during a North American recession. As a result, the city deals with a housing crisis and the majority of bank robberies are committed by migrants.
• Though no one ever caught Klein’s dinner speech on tape, Calgary Herald reporter Bob Bettson took notes while sitting anonymously in the crowd. Bettson quoted Klein as saying there were “a lot of creeps” migrating to Calgary without jobs or skills. The story said Klein promised to use such “cowboy techniques” as piling the newcomers up in jail “on top of one another” if they resorted to crime for a living. Klein denied the allegations.

• Media reports insisted Klein was referring to eastern Canadian migrants. Though Klein did not use the word “eastern,” he inaccurately said Quebecers took up more Calgary jail space than native people. American media, including the comment section of the New York Times, picked up Bettson’s story.
• Then-North York, Ont., Mayor Mel Lastman commented on the incident, “Klein is a bum and with less than two years as mayor, he’s unskilled and wouldn’t make it even as an alderman or school trustee here.”

Also on January 7:
1859: The first “Canadian” silver coins are issued, in Montreal.
1955: The opening of Parliament – Speech from the Throne – is first televised.
1992: The federal government formally apologizes for the past mistreatment of First Nations.
1998: Former NHL players’ union leader Alan Eagleson pleads guilty in Boston and Toronto to fraud. Once considered the most powerful man in hockey, Eagleson was fined, disbarred from practicing law and removed from the Order of Canada. He also resigned from the Hockey Hall of Fame and served six months in prison.

Medium: Television
Program: The National
Broadcast Date: Jan. 7, 1982
Guest(s): Ralph Klein, Keith MacElwain, Lloyd Stang
Host: Knowlton Nash
Reporter: Eve Savory
Duration: 2:07
Last updated: March 7, 2012

Page consulted on August 21, 2012

#111 Dddd on 10.12.12 at 11:18 am

#51 Jan on 10.11.12 at 11:50

Here is an interesting tidbit of information… did you know there are more homes for sale just in Vancouver for a million dollars or more than there are are million dollar homes for sale in ALL of the United States? That’s how whacked our housing market is
…………………
Really?……..
Its too bad there is no type of electronic comm/data network with which one could access data on other computers , that you may research such wildly idiotic claims
Nyc alone has 6x the # of million plus shacks listed than van

#112 Buy? Curious? on 10.12.12 at 11:28 am

I’m so glad there’s no hockey season. The bloodsport for this season will be house prices. If you thought awarding the Stanely Cup in June was the sum total of hard work executed beautifully with a dash of luck, wait until 2013 Spring numbers show up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97ye10Qkavo

#113 Canadian Watchdog on 10.12.12 at 11:30 am

#87 TurnerNation

“MLS is straining under the weight of the new listings! Realtors must be worried. It’s gonna be a lean Xmas. ”

Pffft. You haven’t seen nothing yet. Listing volatility is still low. Wait until prices start falling spooking more homeowners into the market, then we’ll see listings soar to 30-35-40k while sales are declining.

#114 AprilNewwest on 10.12.12 at 11:32 am

$76 Trt – Denial won’t stop the decline……..

#115 daystar on 10.12.12 at 11:47 am

#15 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 9:57 pm

As I read your post, I couldn’t help but catch myself saying a few more I’s that continue to remind me that I am the highway. I’m usually reminded of this song when there’s an Iathon festival:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jA13XYlWHc

#116 TRT on 10.12.12 at 11:59 am

Regarding the poor girl who took her life after relentless bullying:

I hope Teachers and Principal are held partially accountable for letting this go on. Maybe Fire/charge them?

Also, charge the harassers, who cares if they’re under 18!

#117 Spiltbongwater on 10.12.12 at 12:08 pm

Guess they are not just house horny in Victoria.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/victoria-ranked-most-promiscuous-city-in-canada-poll-1.992221

#118 xdisciple on 10.12.12 at 12:09 pm

I believe I am the only person to pick up on Garth’s subtle reference to Winnie the Pooh. But, no bother. At least I know the part of Garth’s biography on his mastery of English literature is true. Baaa, Baaa, Baaa, Faaa, Faaa…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-lN8vWm3m0&feature=player_embedded

#119 xdisciple on 10.12.12 at 12:18 pm

#108 Smoking Man… Yes, I’ve always wanted a Master’s Degree in BS… oh wait, I do have a couple of those… I certify this truth that most of what one learns at the publicly available centres of higher learning are a waste of your precious time. Ask yourself why most of the world’s shipping lanes are controlled by PRIVATE companies not available for sale on the public exchanges… Now that most of you rednecks out there don’t have hockey, perhaps you’ll spend some quality time eviscerating your idols of insanity and stupor. Halloween is a great time to burn these vestiges of your own enslavement… be free…

#120 spaceman on 10.12.12 at 12:19 pm

Rental Market in Victoria has been tight last couple of years, we were lucky, the landlord liked us as we have 2 kids and I have a stable income. We qualified as
great renters, and negotiated a discount, but rents have jumped 20-30% in the last 5 years or so.

Now I see signs of rentals coming on the market, lots of condos in Langford Colwood, can’t sell so developers have decided to rent. This being a big college town (3 major college/universitys, and untold language schools) the rental pool is always in demand. Apartments also have vacancy signs, didn’t see that last couple of years. 3 people in my circle, could not sell a home or condo, and now rent it out. One co-worker pumped thousands in to 2BDR home, getting it ready to sell. Its in Sannich close to Vic proper, Realtor thinks its worth $530,000 easy. Why ? It has a 2 bay garage…

Will keep you posted on this one, house one street over, 4BDR 2B, listed at $460,000 and has been sitting for months.

Victoria Real Estate is dead….

#121 45north on 10.12.12 at 12:30 pm

smoking man: The dude that runs Home Depot, My huge short

Lowes the competitor to Home Depot is building a huge store in Ottawa on Hunt Club Road

The retailer that committed the greatest act of suicide in the last decade is Lowes. Their act of hubris, as Home Depot struggled in the mid 2000’s, is coming home to roost today. They increased their store count from 1,385 to 1,749 over four years. This 26% increase in store count resulted in an increase in sales from $47 billion to $49 billion, a 4% boost. Profitability has plunged from over $3 billion to under $2 billion over this same time frame.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=29848

maybe Lowes figures that Ottawa is the last best hope. Walmart just finished a big store on Baseline Road.

#122 Junius on 10.12.12 at 12:30 pm

#76 TRT,

You said, “A jumbo jet lands every 24 hours at YVR bringing new migrants. They need a place to sleep. Hence the new developments. Do the Math! Don’t be swayed by vested interests.”

Vested interests would be you and your relentless pumping. This is such a load of crap this whole line of argument. When will you stop?

BTW – your weekly quota is up.

#123 Victoria on 10.12.12 at 12:39 pm

Winnipeg …

I grew up in Winnipeg. I have lived in Paris, Toronto and now Victoria.

One thing I must say – great people. You always know when you meet someone from the prairies. Cold places warm hearts.

I have many friends that don’t have to be there. One of them moved back from Toronto and is now a judge. They just love the people. There are more cultural events than in Victoria.

#124 broadway skytrain on 10.12.12 at 12:42 pm

#90 Keen Observer on 10.12.12 at 8:59 am
Garth, Could you please comment on the waterfront, vacation home market across Canada. I am particularly interested in Georgian Bay, Muskoka and Prince Edward Island!
——————————————-
i’d imagine pei is still cheap , but out in bc…

our oceanfront cottage (water access only) is about 15miles from dt vanc , and there are about 20 similar properties – only 1 of 20 is mortgaged as far as i know (retired cpl , 2 pensions no need to sell)
the others are typically long term holds – one sold as a result of divorce 5yr ago. when it’s been paid off and held in your family for generations there is usually little need to sell fast.

saw orcas from a kayak this summer (air blows sounded like a rifle shot) and boated with a pod a dolphins this weekend (third time since they moved back in howe sound last year)

the newest neighbour made 10.5m comp last year from just one of his many jobs according to nyse disclosure listings. (he does seem to be an @sshole though – was rude to my wife and young daughter both times they met) he does PM mining and is richer than all of us put together – i suspect he has no mortgage either. he has been spending more every month on construction/improvements than we spent for our whole property (in 2003, up about 4x since then:).
but we have no likelyhood of selling for 50yrs. so the current price is somewhat meaningless.
the very low # of properties so near the city does make an unusual market dynamic. scoring a nearby marina slip is the hard part!

#125 Van guy on 10.12.12 at 12:48 pm

#18 Mike on 10.11.12 at 10:02 pm
city budgets will be crushed

no more cash from developers

here in K-town (Kelowna) we have enjoyed more than 10 years of housing gains

that paid for a lot of stuff

lots of mistakes too :(

I think those days are behind us now

Hey Lanoville, u ever coming back to Richmond?

#126 45north on 10.12.12 at 12:57 pm

David McDonald: talking about laws governing renting:

It has made knowing the law more important than knowing how to fix a blocked drain thus driving away small but competent landlords.

like me

#127 dosouth on 10.12.12 at 1:04 pm

Wow Garth you have written quite the post for the “vent your spleen” group.

#122 jess and };-) aka D.A. must be pent up just like the market….. whew!!

#95 – Van Isle renter – it appears you know the demographic of the readers here – cheers!

#128 Pt Bob on 10.12.12 at 1:04 pm

Wallboard manufacturer stocks up 176% this year!!!http://www.realestateconsulting.com/images/newsletter/USBMI-201210.jpg

#129 EIT on 10.12.12 at 1:10 pm

This crisis is government engineered. Why you ask? Because laws have been created that transfer risk from the lenders to the taxpayers. (by the way it’s easy to say the borrower is at fault, but that would be wrong) Now the public, who has no say or influence in the original contract, has to incur the risk associated with that contract. Madness! Why do we do this in the first place? Public good! The high road to socialism will lead the people to their own undoing. O wait, we’re already at the ‘undoing’ stage. Listen people we don’t live in a rosy world. Just because life is ‘easy’ for you now does not mean it will always be the case.

More madness:
-Next USSR wins nobel peace prize for stripping away national sovereignty.

I’ll spell it out for everyone: The rich and powerful psychopaths use gradual social reform masked as ‘public good’ to secure their own interests against the natural world.

Read the Fabian Freeway by Rose Martin (1966).

#130 broadway skytrain on 10.12.12 at 1:22 pm

#93 Nukester99 on 10.12.12 at 9:16 am
Holy smoke. I just out of boredom did a quick MLS search in the Vancouver area. Since MLS won’t give you more than 500 hits, I had to go to $4,000,000 and up
——————
50 were acerages
85 waterfront

did ya see this one?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11656398&PidKey=-1972857164

hint it’s not under 24 mil!!!

#131 TNT on 10.12.12 at 1:47 pm

@ 72 David.

That too shall pass and end up in the same place much of the Peg’s housing market is headed.

#132 TNT on 10.12.12 at 1:51 pm

#79 Picasso

Where’s the fat lady gonna live?

#133 MrHulot on 10.12.12 at 1:58 pm

Garth, what happened to the original image for the previous post “Rebel Rebel”. Did that little person hit you with a big law suit?

#134 broadway skytrain on 10.12.12 at 1:59 pm

#110 Timing Is Everything on 10.12.12
http://tinyurl.com/96zqphg
————————————————–
http://tinyurl.com/8f3p9m3

both brilliant! i’v been meaning to learn this for 7 yrs!

#135 meslippery on 10.12.12 at 2:03 pm

GTA Girl #92
Using this old calculator
ww.thestar.com/news/gta/article/349083–property-tax-calculator
Enter Georgina (York region)$240 000
Then Brock (Durham Region)$240 000 right across the
road tax difference $506.05 less in York in 2007

#136 };-) aka D.A. on 10.12.12 at 2:05 pm

#89Nukester99 on 10.12.12 at 8:54 am
I have an idea to speed things along. Lets ALL put our houses up for sale at ridiculous prices. Having no intention of selling unless some greater fool comes along, the massive swamping of new listings certainly would help things along.

You know what would actually happen don’t you?

All those ridiculously priced homes of owners who had no intention of selling unless a greater fool willing to pay exorbitant prices came alone and made them an offer they couldn’t refuse would make all those moderately overpriced homes look like a bargain that they would actually sell thus forcing up the average selling prices. Hang on, wait a minute… THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!!!

#137 Pretzels...thirsty on 10.12.12 at 2:06 pm

Funny ad on Craigslist

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/3334219986.html

#138 TNT on 10.12.12 at 2:35 pm

A friend of mine a re agent on the N shore( Re Max) tells me that it’s slow with most housing prices staying firm.
ok…

Neighbours husband dies and puts her house up for sale because she doesn’t want to live there anymore.
Crickets.
She buys an apartment with her line of credit.

She has now listed her apartment because her overhead is so high.
Crickets.

This type of unfortunate scenario, of which there are many ‘over leveraged’ comparatives, are going to be a big player in the loosening up of reluctant sellers, a desperation forming trend that will demand severe competitive repricing.

The having to sell versus the wanting to sell.

For those of you contemplateing selling, especially the eldery or those who got into the market years ago, think long and hard, just not to long.
Don’t be greedy you will be kicking yourself in the ass down the road.

It is no different here.

#139 Arthur on 10.12.12 at 2:36 pm

#113 Dddd

I think the actual stat is Vancouver total listings of +1 million dollar properties are roughly equal to the monthly sales of +1 million dollar properties of the entire US.

#140 jess on 10.12.12 at 2:43 pm

median Winnipeg (Man.)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
64,700 67,900 70,510 71,470 72,050
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

==============

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-norme/napcs-scpan/notice-avis/napcs-scpan-02-eng.htm

#141 Snowboid on 10.12.12 at 2:47 pm

Thank goodness for the Albertans, they are what makes Kelowna different from Vancouver and Victoria!

This according to Wolf and Colin doing their fall update…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKATYIIQoko&feature=relmfu

#142 Picasso on 10.12.12 at 2:51 pm

NO MORE LENDING TO POOR PEOPLE WHO CANT AFFORD IT. I don’t want to have to bail them out like in the U.S. Keep the regulations in place!! My Janitor bought a $400k house. I mean .. come on!! NO MORE FREE LENDING! Bankers would try to lend to my Cat if they could!

#143 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 2:57 pm

#90 Keen Observer – I know Georgian Bay and Muskoka well; waterfront comes at a high premium, as the bust will depend how the financing was done via the principal residence, as suspect some will be in big trouble. For example: know a person in Muskoka who had a net worth of $100 million, as he owns something big up that way. He decided to take some family money and roll the dice to build monster cottages, for like $3 million each to flip, and things did not work out well.

Your best bet is to buy a piece of land in the Georgian Bay area, and at a future time build a modest pre-fab; it may not be waterfront, but will be close like a starter cottage. It is a matter of taking baby steps for a cottage retreat on the cheap, and one day you can always trade-up. I would stay away from the big buy in cottage country at this time; delay your dream to see how future events unfold. Hey, you can always rent a cottage in the area of your choice to explore and get the feel for it all.

#144 Ronaldo on 10.12.12 at 3:18 pm

#6 Old Man – ”Anytime a developer takes his condo project and converts such into rental units the writing is on the wall, and it says, ” All Over. “ ”

Absolutely. And they will be subidizing the renters for years to come. With the abundance of units coming on the market, developers will be scrambling to fill them with renters and we will once again be seeing signs on buildings offering the ”first and last months rent free” and other things to entice them into renting their cubicles in the sky. Welcome back to the nineties.

#145 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 10.12.12 at 3:22 pm

Hi Garth, this reply really belongs to the previous post “Rebel Rebel”. I love viewpoint because the red lots shows you what sold and how many days on the market that property was listed for. It shows the price reductions and even the shape of the lot and the terrain. I actually called Doug who was listed as the contact and told him that this service is so good, that it is worth paying for. I asked him when it would be available across Canada.

He told me that real estate boards across Canada where fighting viewpoint because they gave away too much information.

#146 Ronaldo on 10.12.12 at 3:32 pm

#8 Tim – ”Won’t this lack of decent rentals help to prop up the condo prices in Vancouver?”

Tim, once all this overbuilding hits the market and there are no buyers, developers will be forced to rent these cubicles out and you will see a scramble by the developers to get these boxes filled. There will be no shortage of rentals, just the opposite. And you will see rents come down. Just like in the 90’s.

#147 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 3:48 pm

I will never understand for the life of me why all are rushing into homes, cars, and cottages as if it is so cool, as it is like a horny pandemic to wave a flag and say look at me; as am special. Kind of like see what I have and you do not type of thing.

One day looked at buying a Benz for all cash with one thing in mind, as could become a good investment for the rest of my life, and my middle name is ‘cheap ass’, so asked around, and was shocked at the cost of service and parts, as a full brake job might come in at $4000, and so on.

Nope, not for me in the least so bought a GM product on sale, as could care less about it all, as do not have to wave my flag for others, as the car does not equate for my bank account, or being less than a man for driving a cheap car. I just laugh about it all.

#148 Frank le Skank on 10.12.12 at 3:49 pm

#95 };-) aka D.A. on 10.12.12 at 9:25 am
I’ve never seen anyone write so much and say so little.

#149 DonDWest on 10.12.12 at 3:52 pm

Garth, I’m curious, what is your opinion of the King’s Wharf development in downtown Dartmouth, NS?

http://kingswharf.ca/

Apparently, this developper seems to think he can sell boxes in Darmouth, NS for 600k a piece right next to the sewage and freight train.

There’s a small single family home in the region, no more than a two minute walk away from King’s Wharf, selling for 185K after multiple price reductions throughout the years.

However, I’ve been told by politicians, business people, and engineers that King’s Wharf is a swell idea to develop the city and that the price is fair because it’s “premium waterfront property.” I’ve also been told that a pile of rich people will suddenly want to move into King’s Wharf because of the coming ship contract. I can’t see welders buying 600K condos, but I don’t have an MBA, so what do I know?!

So Garth, who is correct, me or the business people, engineers, and politicians?

#150 Victoria correcting on 10.12.12 at 4:03 pm

#122 spaceman

The rental maeket in Victoria is not tight at all. Compared to 4 years ago vacancy rates are multiple times higher. That does not even count condos.

I know plenty of people who have negotiated discounts before signing. Leases are negotiable now as well.

Bear Mountain condos can be rented for as low as $700 now compared to $900 three years ago. Discounts in downtown Vic and all over Vic metro as well.

#151 truth hammer on 10.12.12 at 4:05 pm

Garth…I think the focus on Flaherty’s adjustments to the amortization period is an industry red herring that is misdirecting the blame away from what the banks were doing for the first time owner market…which was granting back door 100% financing through the HELOC down payment scheme.

It was the banks zero down/dump the risk on the CMHC ( taxpayers) policy that was at the root of the problem over new buyers over extending themselves.

The zero down/cash back HELOC displaced the one variable that had traditionally adjusted new entries into the market….the fact that a new immigrant ( for example) needed zero cash or savings or secure employment to secure a half million dollar loan that included a new car and a house full of furniture ( all coutesy of the Canadian taxpayer) while risking only one months payment….was why Winnepeg ( with it’s huge influx of immigrants) was able to plaster up such incredible numbers.

Lets stop blaming only F for the Fiasco ….truly …..it was the banks who slipped ot too the taxpayer more than anything the government did.

#152 Junius on 10.12.12 at 4:42 pm

#153 Truth Hammer,

The banks just took advantage of the Government’s stupidity. They make lots of their money this way so why should they treat the Government any different?

Just wait until the CMHC claims start coming in a few years. Then it gets interesting.

#153 Julia on 10.12.12 at 4:42 pm

For anyone who underestimates Smoking Man, new research shows that More Intelligent People Are More Likely to Binge Drink and Get Drunk http://www.psychologytoday.com/em/51561

#154 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 5:03 pm

#151 DonDWest – run away from this King Wharf project in Dartmouth, NS, as rich people will never run for a one trick pony show over a potential contract, so saddle up and look elsewhere; buy not as you too will be hooped in the end.

#155 TRT on 10.12.12 at 5:06 pm

#124 Junius

Funny how Law firms that prosper doing Immigration work are the first to reply to my comment. No one else commented on immigration numbers but you? Vested?

THAT INCLUDES YOUR LAW FIRM AND COLLEAGUES WORKING ON IMMIGRATION MATTERS!

#156 };-) aka D.A. on 10.12.12 at 5:10 pm

#150Frank le Skank on 10.12.12 at 3:49 pm
#95 };-) aka D.A. on 10.12.12 at 9:25 am
I’ve never seen anyone write so much and say so little.

Thanks for taking the time to read anyway. I’ll let it.. you know…

that sales volumes in Kelowna month to date up 24.14% and year to date up 11.68%
that Kelowna first time buyers represent something less than 20% today down from 24%
that Kelowna high ratio buyers represent just 21% of our Kelowna market
that the ‘doom and gloom’ bankers never get to see the ‘all cash buyers’ representing 28% of our market or acknowledge the 51% who have well more than 20% down and all they who are making good on their promissory notes
that 25 year amortizations used to be the norm
that this is a return to norm not a departure from it.

all that I’ll let marinate with you as you feed from only that trough put before you as your blinders preclude you from seeing anything else.

#157 Boomer21 on 10.12.12 at 5:20 pm

Can Garth or one of the “dogs” tell me why RBC announced today that it was going to buy back common shares? Why does a company buy back it’s common shares and is it usually at a premium? Thanks and yes I own some so am curious.

#158 Ken R on 10.12.12 at 5:33 pm

#149 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 3:48 pm

I completely agree. People seem to be disengaged from reality. There is an expectation and sense of entitlement that overrides common sense. I guess the “live for today” attitude has become the norm.

#159 Ken R on 10.12.12 at 5:39 pm

Garth, I recommended your not so pathetic blog to three co-workers who are considering building new homes. Three strikes; it’s different here.

#160 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 5:39 pm

#155 Julia – saw Smoking Man on Bay Street the other day at this bar with all the bigshots, and he had no less than three hot babes with him, and they were all so young. I thought the Smoking Man was a married, but am not sure anymore, as he is a player.

#161 jess on 10.12.12 at 5:45 pm

to offer specifics
the specifics
do you have specifics
do you know exactly what you’re doing
No specifics, again.
================
walmart index

…”Starting in 2001, the FOMC began relying more and more on Walmart in its discussions. In 2002, the company was mentioned in the context of a longshoreman’s strike and inflation. In May 2003, the Fed Governors looked to Walmart to see if there was a sales bounce due to the end of the war in Iraq (there wasn’t). In June, the FOMC began to gauge the macro-economic impact of inequality using advice from Walmart – Walmart officials “were not optimistic” that Bush’s second tax cuts would help sales, because the tax cuts went mostly to wealthy people who didn’t shop there. In 2004, Walmart began warning of high energy prices, and that consumers were “liquidity-constrained”. The company saw in its sales figures that consumers were increasingly living paycheck to paycheck. In 2005, the company began worrying about a “strange” situation – the consumer was tapped out, but sales were up and Walmart couldn’t figure out why. This was a hint of the credit bubble, but the Fed ignored it.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/10/walmart-the-most-powerful-company-in-the-world-admits-that-protests-and-strikes-lead-to-wage-increases.html#yXF7byGhg0ykU1A5.99

#162 Canadian Watchdog on 10.12.12 at 6:34 pm

Alberta: Homerun Capital Corp. bankrupt. Link

Here’s an excerpt from a directors affidavit (October 2, 2012)

I will also add that for whatever reason, the majority of company bankruptcies filed this year have originated from Alberta, most of which are real estate related.

#163 Doug in London on 10.12.12 at 6:37 pm

@149 and 160 by Ken R
That’s interesting, my definition of living for today is being relaxed and not worried about carrying debt, having a sizeable reserve fund, and not being worried about presently being out of paid employment (not out of work, there’s always something to do). I’ve adopted Bobby MacFarlane’s motto don’t worry, be happy!

#164 truth hammer on 10.12.12 at 6:49 pm

#154 J…..Stupidity doesn’t even begin to describe the allowance of zero equity financing. It can be argued that the zero down heloc scam is in fact illegal and contrary to the Bank Act which states quite specifically that ( to paraphrase) zero equity financing is not allowed under the law.

The creation of the HELOC cash back scheme to supply a non existent downpayment to an otherwise unqualified applicant would not be difficult to argue as being an intent to defraud the CMHC.

Look…I only had two years of law before turning my interests elsewhere…but if a guy like me can figure this out..as obvious as it is….then you can be sure that lawyers for the Ministry have already run test files past the noses of their political masters in the event of a CHMC blow out….when it becomes politically nessecary for the government to take the banks and every mortgage broker , real estate broker et al involved to court to recover the potential losses of the massive fraud of the taxpayer through the misrepresentation of documents to the CMHC……after all …are the Banks going to say that they weren’t aware of the law? Can the brokers and dealers claim ignorance when the Bank Act is stated so specifically in the industry training material?

Think it through…..various levels of government would gain mightily in the fray against the evil banks and the minions who hoodwinked the good nature of the Canadian people…..political fodder indeed.

Who is going to be held ultimately responsible? It may be that the government scores points by stepping in and backstops the losses while saving face by taking the ‘culprits’ to account. Machiavellian as hell…but we are talking about politicians.

#165 truth hammer on 10.12.12 at 7:00 pm

BTW….. Seeking Alpha has put together a very interesting read on Canada’s Minsky moment..stating that t ‘isn’t a matter of if the prices revert to the mean…it’s a matter of when.

follow along and cringe at the forecast of Canadian real estate between now and 2017

http://seekingalpha.com/article/921411-uh-oh-canada-a-developing-minsky-moment-in-canadian-real-estate

#166 Smoking Man on 10.12.12 at 7:08 pm

#155 Julia on 10.12.12 at 4:42 pm

Yes, true but, we we fail to identify the meaning of intelligent.

What is intelligence, Memorizing regurgitation info. That’s how we success in obedience school.

Is it, when we have a large vocabulary, spell perfectly.

What is intelligence.

My take.

Having any assortment of problems thrown at you, and to solving then ruminatively with the leased amount of couscous effort in split second speed.

Ruminatively, where the hell did that one come from. wtf

Just popped in.

Old man you probably saw a pic I had posted on my blog last year with the three young Hotties.

#167 Inglorious Investor on 10.12.12 at 7:14 pm

The European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize for “fostering peace on a continent ravaged by war […]”

President Obama won it in 2009 (the first year of his presidency) for “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”

If the next NPP is to be awarded to an equally deserving entity, perhaps the Nobel jury can choose an in-silo ICBM for “promoting world peace through mutually assured destruction.”

#168 Smoking Man on 10.12.12 at 7:33 pm

#39 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 11:07 pm
do not say a word to Smoking Man, but the end group called ‘ The Grass Roots ‘ will be at the Bear’s Den in Niagara Falls, NY on 11/24/12.
…………………………………………………………

Old man, drinks on me. Thanks, wife will order up tickets
If you need a few for yourself, let me know.

Wife y poo is chairmen’s club at Seneca. anything she wants.

#169 DonDWest on 10.12.12 at 7:36 pm

#156 Old Man

I see you’re weak at detecting sarcasm.

Don’t worry, I can’t afford King’s Wharf, the days of mortgage brokers just looking at my bank account and approving me for a 1.2 million dollar mortgage without verifying my yearly income are gone. Never fell into that snake bit, although I must admit it was quite hilarious.

The truth of the matter is I believe it would be an interesting story for Garth. He always mentions the big delusional condo projects in Vancouver and Toronto, but that’s nothing compared to a Dubai like project in freakin Dartmouth, Nova Scotia. I mean, it’s Dartmouth, Nova Scotia. I can’t stop laughing! The downtown area is no larger than half a kilometer wide. Why would people pay a premium just to be in downtown Dartmouth when there are plenty of SFH properties just two minutes outside the core that sell for anywhere from half to one third of the price they are offering?

I guess it’s too late to explain I’m renting a much larger unit in downtown Dartmouth (yes, it’s an older building) than many of the units listed at King’s Wharf for $700 a month. Trust me, I know that area like the back of my hand, they built it on a freakin DUCK POND.

#170 Daisy Mae on 10.12.12 at 7:49 pm

#153 TruthHammer: “Lets stop blaming only F for the Fiasco ….truly …..it was the banks who slipped ot too the taxpayer more than anything the government did.”

*****************

No…let’s not. Because he’s responsible…for granting permission/accessibility/availability, call it anything you want. He made it possible.

#171 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 8:04 pm

#171 DonDWest – as your point is what? I say that you making a fool of yourself by blowing smoke, so am no fool when all is said and done.

#172 Smoking Man on 10.12.12 at 8:09 pm

It’s really not so bad yet, RBC finds in economic ‘surprise’ index

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/its-really-not-so-bad-yet-rbc-finds-in-economic-surprise-index/article4608163/

so things are not that bad.

Yes home owners will be charging to the local real estate office to panic list 416 SFH after they read this.

#173 Maverick on 10.12.12 at 8:37 pm

Starving Vancouver Real Estate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5UQyTVqZhw

#174 Herb on 10.12.12 at 8:42 pm

Smoked Man,

B E A K I N G N E W S …… 416 is not the centre of the universe ……

#175 Old Man on 10.12.12 at 8:44 pm

#170 Smoking Man – I have booked my room on the Canadian side with Embassy Suites with two young babes, and have my tickets, as one woman is never enough for me, so might see you there with your wife on the American side, and will give you a nod, but thanks for your concern.

#176 Canadian Watchdog on 10.12.12 at 8:47 pm

Many folks are still missing the big picture. There is only $37.6B remaining before Genworth and CMHC’s limit is reached; covered bond legislation has been delayed and is now more unlikely to pass with Pauline Marois governing Quebec, who would be opposed to any legislative law giving structural subordination in favor of foreign senior creditors.

Without these laws passed or amended, the housing market is guaranteed to collapse. Period.

#177 Maverick on 10.12.12 at 8:53 pm

Real Estate Agent

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybe9fy4mG_0&feature=related

#178 Timbo on 10.12.12 at 8:53 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-greece-bog-provopoulos-idUSBRE89A0OD20121011

On May 22, 2008 he resigned from Piraeus after 19 months service. Documents seen by Reuters indicate that, on the day before he left the bank, its directors approved a severance payment of 2,775,000 euros, in addition to his pay of 325,704 euros for five months work that year.

The Bank of Greece confirmed the severance payment was 3.46 million euros before tax and was paid to Provopoulos that month. It amounted to more than two million euros per year of service.

Rob the poor and give to the rich…reality sucks!!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/12/greece-fascists-beating-people-police?newsfeed=true

“The timing is nothing if not ironic. On the day the EU has been awarded the Nobel peace prize, we watch as Europe sits idly by and lets fascism brew once again – this time in Greece. If a sharp turn towards religious fundamentalism and fascism is to be avoided, Europe needs to act now.”

“First they came for the writers. But I didn’t speak up, because I was not a writer…..”

#179 Devore on 10.12.12 at 9:13 pm

#8 Tim

There is no shortage of tiny 1 bed and studio condos in Vancouver. That won’t prop up any prices. The “quality” of housing is really not a factor. People buy and live in teardowns all the time, properties that are not legally fit to rent to someone. Most who buy, must sacrifice on many dimensions of their new house; size, age, condition, location. They buy (and rent) regardless.

People will live in what’s available (unless it’s 3rd world country quality across the board). They don’t buy a condo because the cabinet door in their rental is chipped or the (perfectly functioning) stove is 10 years old.

What props up real estate is availability and cost of credit, and the ability (finances) and willingness (psychology) of people to buy it. When the social tide turns and real estate becomes “unloved”, as Garth puts it, it’s not like nice houses and crappy apartments suddenly disappear.

#180 Bottoms_Up on 10.12.12 at 9:36 pm

#19 Tim on 10.11.12 at 10:03 pm
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You do realize that that represents (ball park) about 0.005% of government spending?

It’s like buying a six pack — it feels good and no ones gonna notice any money missing.

#181 Bottoms_Up on 10.12.12 at 9:38 pm

#181 Devore on 10.12.12 at 9:13 pm
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You mean because people can’t rent something decent for $1800/mo they don’t go out and drop $400,000 on a condo? No way!!!

#182 Bottoms_Up on 10.12.12 at 9:40 pm

#176 Herb on 10.12.12 at 8:42 pm
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Go back a couple posts and read my thoughts about people that use the phrase “centre of the universe”…

#183 Bottoms_Up on 10.12.12 at 9:45 pm

#159 Boomer21 on 10.12.12 at 5:20 pm
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The obvious answers are that they feel their share price is undervalued, and it’s their way of giving back to their shareholders (reduces shares outstanding therefore making the stock more valuable). It’s effectively a vote of confidence in themselves.

#184 Gunboat denier on 10.12.12 at 10:00 pm

141 Arthur – I recall that as well. We did have a link awhile back for it. Doesnt take long for the gossipmill to
distort it.

#185 Herb on 10.12.12 at 11:18 pm

#184 Bottoms_Up,

why? Would your thoughts be relevant?

#186 TurnerNation on 10.13.12 at 2:58 pm

#135 MrHulot

Ok I get the new Rebel Rebel photo. It’s a take on the Rolling Stones’ ‘Sticky Fingers’ album cover. Those boomers and their rock n roll!

However, Rebel Rebel was a Bowie song?

#187 Country Girl on 10.13.12 at 5:00 pm

For Smoking Man,
An article to help us understand quantum physics:
http://tinyurl.com/9vp99ld

“Many of the big names in physics were oddballs and eccentrics as children, and our education system needs to make room for that kind of creativity to flower” says Dr. Turok.

#188 Tony on 10.14.12 at 7:52 am

Winnipeg is a minus fifty degree below zero hellhole. What between black flies and frigid temperatures the city is all but inhabitable. It’s amazing anyone lives there.

#189 Tony on 10.14.12 at 8:05 am

Re: #159 Boomer21 on 10.12.12 at 5:20 pm

Buy puts on both RBC and CIBC. Canadian bank shares will plunge in the future. This is a sure thing and in life you don’t get many sure things.

#190 Doug in London on 10.14.12 at 10:44 am

@Tony, post #109;
What a great place to build a city, right in the middle of a flood plain! Back in the 19th century, there was massive speculation that drove property prices in Windypeg to ridiculously high values. That all came to an end with a spring flood. It’s deja vu now, but this time the bubble won’t end due to a flood or other act of nature.