Rebel rebel

 

Rebel realtors. Are they trying to tell us something?

I mean, other than just being naughty boys, of course. Without a doubt the nation needs more of these characters, to counter the incessant spin of real estate boards. Coddled by the advertorial media, the industry’s had a free ride for years, telling consumers in a seller’s market they need to buy immediately and in a buyer’s market they’re nuts not to… buy immediately. These are the same guys who won’t allow consumers access to basic information, like the number of days a home’s been on the market, or its sales history. (There’s only one place in the country where this may be an exception – here.)

So, contrarians matter – those few rogue agents who understand the best possible marketing is honesty. Besides, being a rebel means you can wear your leathers and shades to work, nip office girls in the wrong places, spill Starbucks into the fax machine, park in the broker’s private spot and seriously swagger.

In past posts I referenced two rebs in the Vancouver area, Sam Wyatt and Keith Roy. Both of them admit to having sold their own homes, and renting. “I sold because in 6 months my home will be worth less than it is today,” Roy told his clients in a blog posting. Since they dumped their properties, sales have collapsed making real estate almost illiquid in many hoods, and prices are on the way down. Way down.

Across the ditch in Victoria, more distress and another rebel. Anyone tracking homes in the swishy Oak Bay or Uplands areas knows what is happening. Properties are coming to market which have been closely held within families for generations. For the price of a crappy new house on a 30-foot lot in North Toronto, or a handyman’s special in East Van, you can now buy a genuine mansion with baronial overtones, hand-tooled wooden interior and gigantic lot with mountain views. And still, sales suck. The real estate board claims all is well. Reb Ron Neal says otherwise.

Last month sales in the city were down about 12% from year-earlier levels and the average price declined 5%. “Prices remain steady,” the board says, ignoring the obvious. More telling is this little speech given the media by board president Carol Crabb:

  “Buyers are waiting for prices to go down, but there are no economic indicators to show that will happen. Sellers are pricing their properties reasonably for the current market, which is reflected by the fact that single family homes are selling for an average 96% of list price and the average days on market remains 64.

“The median price of a single family home is only 1.5% lower than last year and that number has held steady for the last five months. Interest rates are also holding, but should they increase by as little as 1%, that would negate a 10% drop in purchase price. People shouldn’t wait for prices to drop, because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy.”

It’s hard to know where to start, given such economic stupidity. Buyers who wait for lower prices will, of course, eventually get them since without enough demand sellers have no choice but to adjust downwards. Meanwhile the toxic combo of record household debt plus mortgage and banking changes which have squeezed credit and boosted carrying costs are the real estate equivalent of chemical warfare. It doesn’t get a lot worse than this. And does Carol know that interest rates are never raised to ‘stimulate’ the economy, but rather the opposite – to cool off inflation or excessive borrowing? How did this woman ever get elected?

Reb realtor Ron says it’s all ‘sugar-coating’:

“The market is anything but steady with sales numbers down significantly and prices too, driven down buy distressed sellers competing for the few predatory buyers who are seizing the opportunity. Statistics are misleading and the 64 average days on market does not include the prior listings of the same properties or those that have not sold. By my estimate the average days on market is closer to 180 days including just the successful sales. Furthermore, the average sale price reported as 96% of list is based on the final listing price, not reflecting the original price or prior listing attempts. My quick review of the numbers shows more like 85% of list price on average based on the original asking price.”

He’s right, of course. Victoria listings have popped as sales tank, and price reductions are a daily occurrence. The city is still one of the least affordable in Canada, with a household income 36% less than in Calgary and 20% behind that of Toronto. The average house is selling for 7.7 times income, and Victoria is only one of two cities in the West with population growth lagging the national average (Winnipeg’s the other).

In short, Victoria real estate is probably hooped.

Mr. Neal thinks people should know that. So they can… buy immediately.

“It is an excellent time to buy, especially to trade up! For a personal consultation of your options in this market please call today!”

I give up.

234 comments ↓

#1 pathcontrolmonk on 10.10.12 at 9:31 pm

I have been following Victoria on MLS and have seen several properties delisted and relisted with another realtor at higher prices! Cant understand the logic of this, but seems like a Victoria anomaly.

#2 torontorocks on 10.10.12 at 9:33 pm

Um, I just lucked out here….is this thing on?

#3 Peter on 10.10.12 at 9:37 pm

What is the difference between a real estate agent and a used car salesman…nothing!

#4 TRT on 10.10.12 at 9:38 pm

Junius:

Kitsalano’s (Vancouver) prices will not return to 2002 levels. Maybe not even 2008 levels. Even Garth says so.

Why do you keep spewing nonsense year after year?

#5 First on 10.10.12 at 9:39 pm

First, time posting to this blog.

#6 Babblemaster on 10.10.12 at 9:40 pm

Lies, bloody lies and statistics. The real estate boards are very good at promulgating this kind of garbage. The are only bested by the government.

#7 bruce on 10.10.12 at 9:42 pm

Realtors A.K.A. “House Pimps”

#8 Nukester99 on 10.10.12 at 9:44 pm

Snake Oil salespeople, the lot of them. 7.7 times income and now is the time to buy? Time to watch the next round of b/s coming from the R/E fantasy world.

#9 Mic D'angelo on 10.10.12 at 9:46 pm

Real estate over the next decade will be like the flat like North American stock markets if not worse S&P/TSX, Dow Jones, S&P 500. There is an old saying my father used to tell me those who do not pay Saturday will pay Sunday. It’s pay back time property junkies.

#10 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.10.12 at 9:52 pm

Describing this as a “stand off” between buyers and sellers (as Ron Neal did on his blog) implies that there are 2 fairly equal sides trying to find common ground.

When you have 10 sellers for every 1 buyer, that is simply an out-of-balance market. Reducing prices by 50% still wouldn’t instantly fix the problem — there simply aren’t enough buyers to clear that inventory. See Arizona or California or Florida for what that looks like.

However – he had a refreshing note regarding days on market:
“Statistics are misleading and the 64 average days on market does not include the prior listings of the same properties or those that have not sold. By my estimate the average days on market is closer to 180 days including just the successful sales.”

#11 Devore on 10.10.12 at 9:55 pm

#163 TimV

You’re right, condos are typically the first to correct, they correct by the most, and an individual condo unit has little land value.

There are other factors at play. One is maximum utility. A typical city SFH lot is not very dense housing, and there is a large spread between its current value, and its value at maximum utility (think how much that lot is worth to a developer building a 50 floor condo or office tower on it). In a condo, the land utility is already maximized, and buyers already paid that price.

This is why speculation and overvaluation in condos in particularly transparent and easy to spot. While there is some argument to be made that an SFH lot _could_ be worth a lot of money due to increasing utility, the same cannot be said for condos, which already are at maximum utility (or it would take a lot of money and effort to bring them to maximum utility, for example a low rise).

SFH speculation might be linked to insider information or rumors about near-future rezoning, for example. You might even make a case that it makes sense to price in some of that future increased utility and densification, because, eventually, it’s coming. Markets tend to price in and time-discount such things, so that’s expected. But you can’t charge the full utility price today, because these things aren’t guaranteed, there is rezoning, red tape, and no time frame, ie plenty of risk. (In other words, you can’t charge full price for potential, but you can charge full price if you develop that potential.)

Condo speculation is easily dispelled by showing an earnings calculation. If a condo unit is indeed becoming more valuable, its rental value should also go up hand in hand. If rents aren’t going up, why should condo prices?

So, bottom line, condo speculation = smoke and mirrors, SFH speculation = land value.

#12 happy renter on 10.10.12 at 9:56 pm

I live in Victoria and I see many price reduced on a lot of for sale signs.Close to 70% of people in Victoria have a college or university degrees so they make good money to afford expensive houses here.My realtor who sold my house said lower priced houses aren’t selling but expensive ones are,so its not all bad.The sad thing about Victoria it has old decrepid rental buildings ,they have’nt built new rental builings here for over 35 years .I guess that why people get fed up and buy a new condo.

#13 Devore on 10.10.12 at 9:57 pm

#163 TimV

Oh, and more to your point about small SFH… that’s the same principle in action. Small SFH = less land value vs improvements value. It’s a continuum from a 100ft corner lot all the way to “no lot”, ie condo. Less and less land value in the total price. Which, logically, _should_ mean more price stability, because price discovery is so much simpler when you remove the land speculation component.

#14 Lilyjoe on 10.10.12 at 9:58 pm

~Never give up Garth~

#15 Cory on 10.10.12 at 9:58 pm

Economic stupidity is an understatement. Wow. And people actually respect what she says and spend their money based on such dumb “advice”??

#16 Victoria on 10.10.12 at 10:00 pm

Trade-up? Wait … I have to sell my money pit of a house to trade up and I can’t imagine how much I would have lost. So how can I trade up?

I love my RE agent. He is very well known and will be ride this out because of his reputation. He said he has never seen things so bad in his 20 years.

#17 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.10.12 at 10:03 pm

Realtors are in such a panic that they flood garth’s blog to post how the crashing market is doing OK. The obvious is that the market is doing so poorly they come to the blog just to let us know how great over 60% drop in new home sales are or that 30 drop in resales in the GTA is really a good thing. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty crash.

#18 mark on 10.10.12 at 10:04 pm

haha interest rates going up to stimulate the economy. There’s a stamp that needs to go across that lady’s forehead.

#19 Canadian Watchdog on 10.10.12 at 10:05 pm

The full story about Canada’s Competition Bureau vs TREB Fight over Toronto VOWs has national repercussions

They must be hiding something to be fighting tooth and nail.

#20 Esmerelda Fitzmonster on 10.10.12 at 10:05 pm

Please write your MP and tell them no more MLS mafia and their lies. Canada demands http://www.zillow.com

#21 Marco from Van on 10.10.12 at 10:06 pm

If evidence can be gathered, say by monitoring listings on the MLS and tracking re-listings and the ensuant price drops like the good few sites that already do (I can’t remember their URLs but remember them being linked in several posts), then I am surprised that a case cannot be mounted against the CREA showing beyond reasonable doubt that their reluctance to open the access has nothing to do with privacy (not a problem anywhere else in the world) but EVERYTHING to do with market manipulation.

This manipulation flies in the face of all ethics the CREA professes Realtors (R), (C), (TM) abide by and has a direct impact on the wider economy as a) it prevents market forces from determining the real price of a property and b) will make the adjustment that much more perilous.

As mortgage risk driven by the baseless appreciation (all the fundamentals show this is simply due to loose lending) of property and mostly backed by CHMC which in turn is backed by the government and through the power taxation backed by us, then this simple manipulation of prices has a serious potential impact on our whole economy (given the proportional effect of RE related activity on our GDP)

I would like this case to be made for the opening up of MLS data, or the open support for other licensing bodies and data repositories to be established in competition to the CREA.

The arguments and ways the CREA uses their proprietary data is like “evidence” that democracy works really well in banana republics when officials are “elected” with 99% of the vote and a 110% turn-out.

Euphoria and greed defeat any form of rationale when buying an appreciating asset (yuppies spending more time deciding on a pair of jeans vs. dropping $100’s of K’s on RE) and on a downturn fear does the same… A time will come (soon) where CREAdibility (SM, it IS misspelled for the pun’s sake) of any statement from the CREA will be doubted.

#22 Jordy on 10.10.12 at 10:06 pm

Why does anyone listen to sales agents of any kind?

#23 Realtor #1 on 10.10.12 at 10:07 pm

I don’t understand why you guys hate Realtors?

You guys are the one that want to buy a home.
You guys tell me how much you want to spend and where you want to live.
The BANKS are the ones that approve how much you can borrow and the decision is YOURS whether you want to spend the entire amount or not.

If you don’t want to pay commissions fees put if for sale privately.
There is No gun to your head, let it go.

#24 Awesome on 10.10.12 at 10:08 pm

I’ve noticed that the same homes are relisted numerous times. Also listed for rent or sale. Also building lots are for sale as a lot or a new build. Lots of homes are taken off the market. Things have changed indeed. Builders don’t want to risk speculating. Luxury new builds are being sold without kitchens, bathrooms, landscaping etc. areas where homes previously sold for high numbers have fallen. Every agent that told me to buy quick… Prices are going up have relisted at a lower asking or lost the listing. The games over…

#25 prairieperson on 10.10.12 at 10:09 pm

No time to give up. These are just the skirmishes before the battle proper begins. Victoria believes it is special. Part of that is because moving to Victoria is a lifetime goal for many retirees. They get here and they feel they’ve made it. All that hard work, all that hard weather, all that saving and now it is flowers and fresh fish served with dollops of pride. “I made it.” Can’t blame them. They wanted to be here and because they wanted to be, they assume everyone else does. On the first street where I lived in Vic only two houses held people born in Victoria. Everyone else came from Alta, Sask, Man. What gets left out is the cost of living. Ferry fares, extra for everything brought to the island. Vic has never been a good place to be young and looking for a job. Tourist jobs, service jobs, crappy paying jobs. Lots of people living in basements. If the retiree influx fades, is priced out of housing, prices are coming down.

#26 Min in Mission on 10.10.12 at 10:11 pm

@ #6

promulgating – not bad for a Wednesday evening!

#27 KingBubbles on 10.10.12 at 10:12 pm

A broker was dismayed when a brand new real estate office much like his own opened up next door and erected a huge sign which read ‘BEST AGENTS.’

He was horrified when another competitor opened up on his right, and announced its arrival with an even larger sign, reading ‘LOWEST COMMISSIONS.’

The broker panicked, until he got an idea. He put the biggest sign of all over his own real estate office. It read: ‘MAIN ENTRANCE.

#28 Smoking Man on 10.10.12 at 10:14 pm

I am not a Realtor damn it.

Yoda sends me messages daily in the form of two letter words via the universal consciences consolidator.

Yesterday it was :)<MO. Today it’s WB.

I’m just a wee mortal man Yoda, the pressure I feel to deliver every day.

Wishful-Bias. = WB
WB is the biggest opportunity destroyer in the common man. WB messes with the logic centre sensor’s deep inside the obedient school sculpted mind.

Bubble Heads, and bunkered down home owners both suffer from this handicap. Whether they read a story, see a clip, or worship every word a Harley ridding bearded oracle types, the results are the same. The bulls ignore the negative and over weigh the positive, the bubble heads in reverse.

Example: Mr. LaughingCon, any story reinforcing his WB he accepts as solid, real, and righteous. Anything challenging his WB. It’s propaganda, a conspiracy, he imagines bulls to be nasty realtors with an agenda. See’s himself as Luke Skywalker, in reality Chubaca is a better fit.

Sadly a mind lock like this will result in the host body to suffer and live in poverty forever, as the facts are never evaluated from a well-balanced prospective. This mind will be wrong almost all the time vs what actually happens, the soul will then be too frightened to ever take risks because of such a poor track record between the mind and expected results. This mind Won’t play a single hand.

I don’t have a WB intoxicated mind. Hence my awesome powers of observation and super human calls. My strength is not having a mind at all, no opinion of any sort, no predetermined calculation rule. I just consume a bit of wine, then data , voices too, (Yoda) and ba- boom. I got it. That damn Smoking Man nails another one.

Yet very few on here have the kahunas to bow to the great one in front of Co-WB’s. Once in a while, a random email pops into the inbox, thanks SM. This is what keeps me coming back to this pathetic blog. I have made 6 fans so far. :)

It’s a shame. LaughingCon, he’s been with me since the early days of the Globe and mail, heard all my calls, witnessed me make zillions as I broadcasted all my moves daily. LaughingCon has acted on ZERO. Before I leave this planet I would love to help this guy make it. Garth please take care of him if I can’t get through to him. I just can’t tear down his wall.
…………………………………………………………………………………………
Ok Yoda I did my f-en deed, the world knows LaughingCon needs help and they will help him.
I now need to know what :)<MO means.

Wait, I’m getting a signal , connecting, “HA”

? “HA” You laughing now Yoda?.

And what’s with the happy face. How do I prophet financially from this.

:)< “MO”, “HA”

UGH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait, MO=(Altria Group) or HAMO=(Hamon & Cie (International) SA)

Doesn't make sense.

Anyone?

#29 Rosebery on 10.10.12 at 10:16 pm

Victoria is in real trouble. Lots of inventory, nothing selling, price cuts weekly. Few jobs, high ferry costs,
retirement buyers pessimistic. VI downsizers stranded
as prices decline, no-shows at open houses, winter coming. RE Agents folding their tents as costs spiral.

It’s over.

#30 Fleabitten Monkey on 10.10.12 at 10:19 pm

I watched a home for sale in Victoria from earlier this year, starting maybe around March/April. Prior to eventual sale, it was listed as high as $540K and went through 3 agents. Last I saw it on MLS it was $499K. Recently sold, would love to know what sale price was. Time on market likely around 6 months, as Mr. Neal suggests.

#31 The end is nigh on 10.10.12 at 10:21 pm

Does anyone know why I can’t access re.olvius anymore?

#32 TOUGH TIMES on 10.10.12 at 10:22 pm

HGTV Virgins get out there and start Low Balling Homes by 50% for the following Reasons.

1. The industry has raped you poor souls over the last 8 years based on a ponzi scheme by the banks giving FREE MONEY to everyone with a heart beat. Zero Down, Cash Bank Mortgages, 40 year Mortgages etc, etc,

2. The gov’t reduced mortgages to 25 years and the market started tanking immediately. All the Realtards, Bankers, developers and brokers are in a full out panic. They don’t like the True Market and like the CHMC Market where the taxpayer backs all the mortgages.

3. No Good Paying Jobs anymore. You can’t compete with the USA worker now making $12.00 an hour at the GM Plant and who can buy a nice home for $100,000K now in the USA. Think about it for a moment HGTV Virgins.

4. Austerity is alive and well in Canada. President H caught 19,000 Civil service jobs, every level of gov’t is caughting jobs also. Tough Times for Many. Good luck find another Geek paying you 50K a year, benefits and pension plan.

5. Baby Boomers like my parents are in the hole in debt and only have there RE holdings. Soon they will need to to sell also in order to survive which flood the market with RE.

6. China, Europe and USA are all slowing down. You cannot get out of a recession with more debt. Corp are not spending and world gov’t are tapped out now.

7. 70% of Canadians are living Pay Cheque to Pay Cheque and 50% have no money for a rainy day. Can you say we are screwed!!!

Bottom Line is that Canada is screwed. Get on MLS and just e-mail those Realtards and low ball them by 50% on any property you fancy. Soon they and the sellers will realize that a home is only worth what a buyer will pay. The crash is here and now and I feel sorry for the folks that owe 80% to 90% on a mortgage which is probably 80% of Canadians. TOUGH TIMES A COMING!

#33 Bottoms_Up on 10.10.12 at 10:25 pm

I almost moved to Victoria once…until I realized I couldn’t get a job there (they don’t exist). What sane city has astronomical housing costs but no jobs?

#34 Mississauga on 10.10.12 at 10:30 pm

Prices are dropping! I’ve see them with my own eyes! This princely McMansion in Mississauga on a postage stamp sized lot, has never been lived in for 1.5 years!

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12308854&PidKey=-1908848300

It was recently reduced from $4.7m to $4.5m. What a steal and savings of over $200K!

#35 Fodork on 10.10.12 at 10:31 pm

Let me give you a real example of MLS data manipulation in the GTA.
A home being with MLS N2450526 listed at $599k, taken off the market and then relisted at $549k. It sold for $540k.
Sold MLS report (www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=45519837.175000&t=l&fm=F) says sold at 98% list price when it should really have been close to 90% list price.
This is how TREB and realtors in GTA manipulate stats. I have seen so many examples already.

#36 youliana on 10.10.12 at 10:32 pm

When is TD going to stop offering the 5% cash back mortgage? I keep getting this offer on a weekly basis.

#37 Smoking Man on 10.10.12 at 10:32 pm

Yoda I got.

You sht head, sorry, did not mean to be blasphemous.

My apologies.

#38 Bottoms_Up on 10.10.12 at 10:33 pm

#1 pathcontrolmonk on 10.10.12 at 9:31 pm
—————————————
Nope, I think a lot of agents/sellers try that trick when they aren’t able to sell their place. They are ‘fishing’ for a wealthier buyer searching in a higher price bracket, that may have cut-off their search at a price higher than the original list price. Thus, voila, their place now appears on the wealthier buyer’s list.

#39 Fleabitten Monkey on 10.10.12 at 10:34 pm

I was in Victoria for the Thanksgiving weekend. Just what is it about this town that people think justifies the prices sellers are asking. I really don’t get it. Relative to Vancouver, Victoria seems even more delusional. There is nothing of interest in that “town”. Save for the parliament buildings and the inner harbour area, it is totally unremarkable, even with sunny weather, as it had over the weekend.

#40 Van Isle Renter on 10.10.12 at 10:39 pm

Went to Vic on the weekend for Thanksgiving. In-laws said the same thing; lots of houses on the market and big price drops. Sad but true. In-laws own several properties, all bought many years ago, so they’ll be OK, but they missed creaming the top of the market.

But what do they know? They just live there.

Personally, I don’t have anything against realtors. The problem arises when hype and idiotic statistics are published by real estate boards to sucker people into continuing to buy.

And then numerically illiterate realtors take these patently wrong statistics as gospel because they lack the education to make an informed decision themselves. Face it, most realtors couldn’t pass grade eight math, let alone tell you the difference between a mean, average, median or mode price.

When that happens, they are no different than Bernie Madoff.

#41 Timbo on 10.10.12 at 10:42 pm

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/09/27/a-culture-delusion/

“Americans live in a matrix of lies. They seldom encounter a truthful statement.There is no evidence that Americans can any longer tell the difference between the truth and a lie. Americans fell for all of these lies and more: Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction and al Qaeda connections. Saddam Hussein’s troops seized Kuwaiti babies from incubators and threw them on the floor. Gaddafi fed his troops Viagra to help them rape Libyan women. Iran has a nuclear weapons program. Change–yes we can! The US is “the indispensable country.” America is broke because of food stamps and Social Security, not because of wars, bankster bailouts, and a failing economy. Russia is America’s number one enemy. China is America’s number one enemy. Iran is a terrorist state. Jobs offshoring is free trade and good for the US economy. Israel is America’s most loyal ally. The US missile shield surrounding Russia is not directed at Russia. The South China sea is an area of US national interest. Financial markets are self-regulating.”

Delusion is the happy place and we must stay happy..

http://www.businessinsider.com/silent-circle-app-2012-10

“The first line to a recent story on Buzzfeed is enough to make anyone break out a tinfoil hat … or at the very least buy a new App designed by Navy SEALs.

“The first rule,” Buzzfeed staffer Russell Brandom writes, “former Navy SEAL Mike Janke tells me, is that you have to assume the worst: ‘Everything you do and say — email, text, phone — is monitored on some level.'”

Big brother is listening……

#42 house burden on 10.10.12 at 10:42 pm

If there is an industry which need to be regulated, it’s the real estate industry. Like broker’s and lawyer which gives recommendation, they should not be publishing this type of CRAP to brainwash the Public.

Regulate them now, send them to jail for running a “PONZI SCHEME”. What worst these CMHC which is a government institution is also spewing out crap like this.

Even Bernie Maddolf wasn’t this bad.

#43 Nemesis on 10.10.12 at 10:43 pm

“I give up.” – Hon. GT

Oh no you don’t! [think ClassicPantomime, OldPol]…

http://youtu.be/8MA3406YJUg

#44 Andrew on 10.10.12 at 10:48 pm

Garth you realize you are starting a new trend right? I’ll call it the “I was with Garth the Whole Time Marketing Plan-

Here’s one from our favorite Calgary Realtor(nameless because he really doesn’t like that):

“Sean said, “Eventually what Garths saying will come true in Calgary.. its just basic economics. Its not that different here.”

Realtor Reply:

“For those who are new to this blog, I’ve been saying that since Feb 2007, long before Garth ever started his blog.”

“I Give Up”

No you don’t. see you tomorrow.

#45 HDJ on 10.10.12 at 10:50 pm

Neighbourhood house in Victoria (Oak Bay) just sold after being on the market for about a week. Asking price, $1,100.000. Sold for $1,150,000. Still not too late to jump out. Or, perhaps the gloomy predictions are wrong.

Share the listing? — Garth

#46 TimV on 10.10.12 at 10:51 pm

#13 Devore:

Hm. I don’t disagree with anything you wrote. I’m not sure what it ultimately means in terms of how prices will correct, though.

#47 futureexpatriate on 10.10.12 at 10:52 pm

Hey Ron!! It’s not an excellent time to buy until prices have dropped 50% and come close to Cali and Vegas debacle prices.

I have your number. I’ll call ya. LATER. MUCH.

#48 Smoking Man on 10.10.12 at 10:55 pm

Boy o Boy Gartho you rattled the hornets nest tonight.

They come out.

The liars, The ponzi

What is wrong with you people,

of cource people lie, and cheat and scam, that how you get the big boat.

What’s wrong with that,

Who taught you that honesty, fair play, integrity get you somewhere.

I think you are all focusing your attention on the wrong bad guy.

#49 Jay Currie on 10.10.12 at 10:56 pm

Garth is dead on about Oak Bay and the Uplands. In fact, one of the interesting things about living there is that you see the signs for houses which are not actually on the MLS site. There is more for sale here than MLS wants to admit.

And as I walk my dog around my leafy part of that world I see a number of things: two houses which sold – one had been on the market for a year and a half and sold for roughly 70% of initial asking, the other on the market for 8 months and had at least one price drop of $200,000 and it sold for less. As well, on the Dog Walk Index (DWI), there are three vacant properties only one of which is for sale and at least a dozen houses which have been on the market but have been withdrawn.

As to living in Oak Bay – great place! Friendly, 80 is the new 60, enough kids to make it busy: but I cannot imagine how you would make a living in Victoria if you didn’t work for some government funded outfit – government, health care, university or colleges. Thank God for the internet because I can do my work pretty much anywhere.

Prices here are silently collapsing. The panic has not set in because simply to live in Oak Bay you already have enough money that you are able to “wait out” a bad spring or fall selling season. But those are already behind us, Spring 2013 is where the crunch will be.

#50 DON on 10.10.12 at 10:56 pm

prairieperson is correct. The Provincial Gov will only be posting limited jobs for a bit, most in service.

Young people have been leaving this city in droves, it is really apparent. Retirees come here to end their days, but are only here for a short period of time.

I LOVE the island, not for Victoria (as there isn’t much to do here) but hiking along the coast is soothing to say the least. Best island in the world as far as I am concerned. Every single town is bleeding young men going off to Alberta to work in the oil fields. Raw logs – are being shipped out of BC – they should be going to local mills. But that’s what you get when the clowns are running the show.

Do I want to live in Victoria…Hell no, can barely stand some people’s attitudes. Lots of better places to live and Vancouver and Victoria are not on that list.

I drive through Oak Bay and Uplands and those nice Mansions are sitting on the market. What really concerns me is how delusional and gullible people really are – or is it greed. In the coming months and years people will have to think about good solid research and analytical reasoning…Less they forget.

No longer any real estate talk at the water cooler other than people stating they are trying to sell their eco friendly condos. Most of these folks have degrees, just goes to show you that intelligence cannot be read in books.

#51 Smoking Man on 10.10.12 at 11:05 pm

#41 Timbo on 10.10.12 at 10:42 pm
Big brother is listening……

Ha !!!!!!

Timbo I wrote the Manuel, left out a few chapters.

Mohahahahahahahahaha

#52 happy renters in Victoria on 10.10.12 at 11:09 pm

A few weeks ago the president of the Victoria Real Estate Board was on CBC radio explaining the lower sales in Victoria were on account of the WEATHER!!! She reasoned that with the summer having been so sunny and hot who would want to be out house shopping when you could be at the beach. What can one possibly say to that?

#53 Smoking Man on 10.10.12 at 11:09 pm

Ok gartho that’s it for the night

:)<<<<<<xx hammed

f-en Yoda trying to get me killed

#54 Soylent Green is People on 10.10.12 at 11:10 pm

The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Oct. 10 2012, 10:28 PM EDT

laws in a national databank that helps determine the value of houses across Canada have helped fuel inflation in home prices, putting mortgage lenders and borrowers at greater risk, key players in the housing sector have warned.

Documents obtained by The Globe and Mail detailing confidential statements from banks, appraisers and mortgage insurers show rising worry over the use of a database operated by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The documents suggest the data are flawed and help push home prices up.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

.

#55 Soylent Green is People on 10.10.12 at 11:17 pm

That was supposed to be

flaws

not laws

.

#56 george on 10.10.12 at 11:20 pm

This Keynes Quote Sums Up Our Worst Fears About Easy Monetary Policy

#57 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 10.10.12 at 11:21 pm

How did the house buying and selling ever evolve to the point that 95% of transactions are done with a realtor?
Cool Aid?

50% of all house sold in France is done so by private parties. When we bought ours and I asked if we need a lawyer, the vendor just looked at me and gave me the town notaire’s number.
Saved plenty on that deal…….

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2011/11/house-hunters-international.html

#58 coastal on 10.10.12 at 11:22 pm

Awesome post Garth. Don’t forget Greater Victoria SFH’s are down almost 50% since May and no one mentions it. That is a major decline in such a short period of time during prime time of the year. This is gonna get ugly.

#59 patiently Waiting on 10.10.12 at 11:23 pm

#15 Cory
Economic stupidity is an understatement. Wow. And people actually respect what she says and spend their money based on such dumb “advice”??
—————————————————————–

I agree, the economic illiteracy of the sheeple never ceases to amaze me. I guess that’s why they are easy pickings for the shamless and equally economically illiterate Realtors as demonstrated above. The Sheeple (especially the young property virgins) are going have a lesson that they will not soon forget in the coming months. Though in defense of the Realtor community at least they have an excuse – as Upton Sinclair once said “If is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”

pw

#60 Hubris Hubris on 10.10.12 at 11:26 pm

Reply to Happy Renter’s realtor: ‘I live in Victoria and I see many price reduced on a lot of for sale signs.Close to 70% of people in Victoria have ………..My realtor who sold my house said lower priced houses aren’t selling but expensive ones are,so its not all bad.The sad thing about Victoria it has old decrepid rental buildings ,they have’nt built new rental builings here for over 35 years .I guess that why people get fed up and buy a new condo…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Same old…. We live in exactly the same place but (unsurprisingly) don’t see the same thing at all and we’ve been monitoring the listings for almost 2 years. It’s just completely false that properties over $1million are mostly selling. If property is selling at all it is almost always in a lower price bracket and increasingly has taken substantial time to shift. Overall, however, many, many properties, including many on the Saanich Peninsula, are simply STUCK. And Garth is unarguably accurate – as he says, he’s actually one of the very few sources of the truth. On MLS listing tactics here in Victoria, it is completely correct that properties are routinely and constantly re listed again and again, with varying gaps of time in between, to allow them to re appear as New Listings. We regularly see properties that have literally been on the market for years. Of course, usually when these are re listed it involves a price reduction (increasingly a considerable reduction over the original figure) but, as Garth states, the very first and original price listed is not the one that appears anywhere and is certainly not the one used to calculate monthly figures. I can only say I am disgusted at these practices. Canada needs a grown up system of information on real estate sales, one with integrity and real professionalism and not one that is routinely manipulated to allow everyone involved to squeeze as much fast money as possible out of this peculiarly contemporary asset class. It’s not only bankers who need regulated out of their spectacular greed.

#61 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.10.12 at 11:30 pm

@ #54 Soylent Green is People

That is insane, yet entirely predictable.

Good to know that $600B in Canadian Taxpayer guarantees via CMHC have relied on a flawed system.

“It’s different here” takes on a whole new meaning… in our case, “different” really means “gullible and lazy”.

Thank you Flaherty, Harper, and friends (Diane Finley) for the wonderful Economic Action Plan, which exploits this flawed robo-signing system.

#62 Mike on 10.10.12 at 11:30 pm

Thank you Mr. Turner for another fine read.
Also thank you for pointing out that there are still a few people out there that will not corrupt their moral compass.
This is not the time to choose material possessions that do not serve the highest good. Bad Karma.
Houses that sold in my neighbourhood in Kelowna, where I rent a little carriage house, are off almost 25% from 2010. Mid 750s…house sold this week for 535K. Too many people here are not prepared nor in a financial position to handle this.
Compassion will be in short supply sadly.

#63 Ron on 10.10.12 at 11:33 pm

It’s happening. Mainstream is talking about corrections, renting vs. owning, interest rates, ownership costs, debt levels, etc.. We’ve seen this story unfold before. It’s amazing that people thought that it was different here.

The herd is stirring and will stampede soon..

#64 Mr.Gadget on 10.10.12 at 11:34 pm

http://www.theonion.com/articles/really-not-a-great-house,29781/

#65 Jay Currie on 10.10.12 at 11:41 pm

#45 HDJ – People come to Victoria from Toronto all the time…

#66 titicaca on 10.10.12 at 11:41 pm

What a timely post on realtors and the media as exemplified by the Calgary Herald today. “Albertans in upbeat mood about economy” used up the front page of the business section with a nice picture of very confident Tanya – the consumer who is “purchasing”, and, you can’t make this up – she happens to be a relator.

#67 MrHulot on 10.10.12 at 11:43 pm

I am pretty sure the tall, skinny guy is Kim Mitchell circa 1980.

#68 Smoking Man on 10.10.12 at 11:43 pm

Ok one more

Bubble heads, this is your problem.

The track 6ers are dumb. Lot more of them than you.

and they don’t take the eye of the TV. which they obey with un dying loyality.

The transit daily news papers.

News 2 pages
Money 1/2 a page
Hollywood 10 pages.

Crashmegedon, not going to happen.

The liars are up grading boats for next year.

Bank on on it.

With all your logic, math , brains. You can’t beat a dumb

#69 Ralph Cramdown on 10.10.12 at 11:47 pm

I don’t understand why you guys hate Realtors?

Because so many of you are unprofessional. When a client says “I want to pay you 2.5% to put my property on MLS with one blurry mis-sized photo, no room measurements and a lot of misspellings in the description, and ignore any communications you get from buyers or their agents,” the honourable thing would be to decline.

#70 The end is nigh on 10.10.12 at 11:48 pm

Global News in Vancouver had a report this evening on changes to the Strata Act that requires Stratas in BC to prepare Depreciation Reports on the state of their buildings.
The gist is that Strata owners will finally have to come up with the money to bring their buildings up to standard.
Some estimates were, that the average owner will be levied with a special assessment of about $ 40 grand.
And after that, maintenance fees will also have to up to keep the buildings up to code.
The report mentioned that there are about 1 million strata units in B.C.
At 40 grand a unit ,the potential assessments could be about 40 billion.
To put this in perspective: BC’s GDP is about 50 billion.

#71 titicaca on 10.10.12 at 11:49 pm

Tanya :
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Albertans+upbeat+mood+about+economy/7362004/story.html

#72 Bought a place in the US, just like Garth suggested. on 10.11.12 at 12:04 am

Bought my house in the States last year … now off to it for the next 6 months; back to Canada in the Spring.

When I return prices in Canada should be feeling the full effect of the housing bubble bursting.

Still I can afford to buy any house I want Canada, but as a rational buyer waiting for that bottom, its slowly grinding down.

Renting in Canada for now, but in the States I’ll be buying a few more houses or apartment buildings in the over the winter. The cap rates are too delicious to ignore.

As Garth mentioned buy low sell in the States, sell high in Canada; although most Canadians will miss this boat.

#73 Bought a place in the US, just like Garth suggested. on 10.11.12 at 12:05 am

I’m sorry fat fingered the last entry:

As Garth mentioned buy low in the States, sell high in Canada; although most Canadians will miss this boat.

#74 };-) aka DA on 10.11.12 at 12:08 am

DELETED

#75 earlybird on 10.11.12 at 12:12 am

Haha…obviously no financial background, however when I use a Realtor I could care less about their Educational background. I am only looking for a killer salesman, with questionable morals, hard negociating skills, and a take no prisoner ego…..people need to do their own mathematical due diligents. Hilarious pic!..cant stop looking….

#76 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.12 at 12:15 am

Just what is it about this town that people think justifies the prices sellers are asking.

It’s the same everywhere. Most people (and this includes most realtors) have no idea how to value a house to be owner occupied. So they look at what others paid for similar recently and adjust up a bit if the market’s tight and down a bit if it’s soft. Google “serial correlation” as it pertains to housing for all the gory details. Ergo, it is assumed that the last few people to buy in your neighbourhood were rational arbiters of value, and not house horny credit fuelled virgins being urged by their agent to lead with their best offer, thus outbidding 2nd place by $70,000.

True story: My kid comes home from Kindergarten last week with some homework. I guess they’re good about recycling down at the photocopier, because on the back is somebody else’s homework, an assignment in comparative residential real estate valuation. Uh oh, looks like one of the teachers or support staffers is planning a career move. I blame McGuinty, and stifle the urge to storm down to the office and declaim that, while simple comparative might be OK for K, I fully expect him to be doing multiple regressions by grade two.

#77 Snowboid on 10.11.12 at 12:17 am

Update from our former Victoria neighbourhood…

One of the neighbours that thought we were insane to sell in April 2010 for what we were asking. They listed shortly after our sale with a comparable property.

After going through the delisting, relisting etc – they have finally sold – if they ended up getting 97% of their last list they would be fully 20% down from when we sold, not counting RE and other fees.

One other neighbour has moved on and is renting out their home until the market improves next year!!??

This delisting and relisting is so common in the Okanagan now it seems the ink is barely dry on MLS before they relist – the tactic here seems to be hiding price drops more than DOM.

It is getting interesting here, but sadly we must shortly do our boid thing and fly south for the winter.

#78 Nodebt on 10.11.12 at 12:18 am

Gonna sleep like a baby tonite in my mortgage free house!!!

#79 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.11.12 at 12:31 am


Cute pic and nice headline. Like anything else, RE has its heavens and hells.
*
Global Food Crisis We’re running out of it; Champagne celebrating UK’s empty bank account, but Empty Talk From a politico. Whaddaya expect? Swiss study 147 technocrats run this joint; Arctic Oil Drilling Yea or nay? South Sudan Headline and first para. are quite interesting;
Cash cow? Not really. Candy cow; Is GM Too Big To Fail? Possible it could; EU Banking Union Getting closer; Inflation Convenient numbers? 4:49 audio clip Debt crisis, etc.; One Planet Economy + depop.

Shiny Tin Foil Hats On Only for conspiracy theorists. Today (Thursday) is 10-11-12, which adds up to 33; Bond Funds Going up; Jamie Dimon speaks on US debt; Kodak Trying to get out of paying benefits for 56K of its workers, as it’s bankrupt; Bernanke says India is important to the G20; ObombaCare and preparing for it; China, Japan and Taiwan Oil and gas are the only things of interest; Compulsive Spending; Lying, Cheating, Stealing Investment banxters; 2008 all over again History . . .; QE3 Keynes’ view; Debt super cycle has made orbit; Gold or Silver Which is better?
*
Uh huh “A very interesting confluence of events here appears to be shaping up:

“1. The pre-positioning of US forces in Jordan.
“2. The timing of these exercises, relative to the US elections next month. These exercises start just 20 days before the US elections.
“3. The increasing tensions between Turkey and Syria.
“4. The potential collapse of the Euro, which would bring the US monetary system to a standstill, due to banking corporations not having the collateral to cover debt default swaps.
“5. NATO’S having expressed its readiness to attack Syria (yesterday, in fact).

“IF it appears that the US economy is going to tank, look for the US government to have the US military embroiled in a war, or series of wars, faster than the speed of light to try to prevent it.” wrh.com; Romney Flip flopping; Puppy Love Incl. kitten as well; Snake skin covered car See it to believe it; Hot Stuff Playing soccer with a burning ball is not recommended; Wake If possible, I’d do the same — celebrate my life while I’m still here; All aboard Ticket to Ride; P.C. Crazy Some people are stark, staring bonkers; UFO over Israel Checking out Dimona and Tel Aviv? Modern Wheat not very good. Try coconut bread or something wheat and gluten free; Age Warfare, not class warfare; US – Canada Border Next level to what? Magnets Cancer killers; 2012 Are the poles shifting as we speak? Bond. James Bond and his cars; Ravaged A whale by great whites; Mafia Still powerful in southern Italy.

#80 TNT on 10.11.12 at 12:33 am

Don’t give up Garth they are just good little meat puppets doing what they have been programmed to do.

And you doing what you do, deprogramming.

#81 McLovin on 10.11.12 at 12:34 am

#160 McLovin on 10.10.12 at 8:21 pm…

From OMREB Sept 2007 – Sept 2012 (not sure if Sept 2007 was peak month)

2007: SFH – $ 512,649 Condo – $ 266,596
2012: SFH – $ 488,788 Condo – $ 217683

So SFH are down 4.7% or 13% adjusted for inflation
Condos are down 18.3% or 25.7% adjusted

Thanks for the info that DA is doing his best to hide. Its now there in plain view.

I would have to disagree with you DA that Kelowna is doing “just fine”. If these numbers are just fine then I would hate to see what you call bad.

It will be 20 years before Kelowna condo’s get back up to 2007 prices in nominal terms.

Kelowna is ground zero and its just getting going. Once Vancouver and Calgary start to crack there will be another huge leg down there.

#82 Ted23 on 10.11.12 at 12:37 am

“My quick review of the numbers shows more like 85% of list price on average based on the original asking price.”

This is a rediculas comment as the original list may actually have no bearing on real value due to over enthusiastic Realtor or seller with pie in the sky pricing. To use such a method to establish the selling list to sell ratio is a very poor measure except for Mr. Turner’s use because it creates much more drama.

#83 Timbo on 10.11.12 at 12:46 am

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49360274

“Take the “penthouse” on the 75th and 76th floor. The apartment, at 13,554 square feet, reportedly sold for more than $90 million to an unknown billionaire. (The building is still under construction and will open next year). Normally, the annual real-estate taxes on the apartment would be around $230,000 a year. With the special abatements, however, the taxes are projected to be only be $20,000 a year – saving the owner $210,000 a year in real-estate taxes.”

Thank god they are helping the poor millionaires…..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-10/spain-downgraded-to-one-level-above-junk-by-s-p-on-risks.html

“Spain’s financing needs are increasing along with its costs. It plans to borrow 207.2 billion euros next year, pushing its debt load to 90.5 percent of economic output as the state absorbs the cost of bailing out banks and the power system. The rate was 36 percent in 2007, before a 10-year real-estate boom ended, derailing public finances. ”

A downgraded Train wreck is still a Train wreck…..

#84 TNT on 10.11.12 at 12:47 am

I know the RE reps like to proudly advertise Sold over asking price.
But never Sold under asking price.

Also when it is listed in the paper as SOLD why don’t they post the actual price it sold for.

It’s calculated manipulation and a time tested system designed to hose the freaking customers.

#85 Mithan on 10.11.12 at 12:56 am

Interest rates are also holding, but should they increase by as little as 1%, that would negate a 10% drop in purchase price. People shouldn’t wait for prices to drop, because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy.”

Idiot realtors. Statements like that always bothered me. If interest rates are going UP, the monthly payment will be much higher, thus my purchasing power is much lower, meaning sellers who want to sell their homes will need to lower their prices to get out of it.

Higher Interest rates = Lower Home Prices.

Period.

Furthermore, from a risk management point of view, taking on a huge debt at “low interest rates” is akin to putting a gun to your head financially.

Realtors should be ashamed of using those statements.

#86 Mithan on 10.11.12 at 12:57 am

Interest rates are also holding, but should they increase by as little as 1%, that would negate a 10% drop in purchase price. People shouldn’t wait for prices to drop, because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy.”

Idiot realtors. Statements like that always bothered me. If interest rates are going UP, the monthly payment will be much higher, thus my purchasing power is much lower, meaning sellers who want to sell their homes will need to lower their prices to get out of it.

Higher Interest rates = Lower Home Prices.

Period.

Furthermore, from a risk management point of view, taking on a huge debt at “low interest rates” is akin to putting a gun to your head financially.

Realtors should be ashamed of using those statements.

PS: Garth, please delete my above post as I screwed up the italics. Thank you.

#87 northerner on 10.11.12 at 1:01 am

@ #3 Peter
What’s the difference between a dead dog on the road and a dead real estate agent on the road

there’s no sign of skid marks near the real estate agent! HA HA

#88 Hawk on 10.11.12 at 1:07 am

#21 Marco from Van on 10.10.12 at 10:06 pm

=========================

I am not a realtor, but I think it seems a bit absurd to suggest that the MLS be completely opened up to the public when the system is created and paid for by CREA.

What might be fair is for CREA to get permission from sellers and buyers for recording and tracking their private information once a sale is completed. Maybe they could pay a small fee to the parties involved.

#89 Big Bear on 10.11.12 at 1:12 am

I purchased a semi on a 4500 sq ft lot in 2002 for 172K in the Cedar Hill area. Sold it for 400K 5 yrs later. 135% increase.

Rented a 2 bedroom 1986 built house in Mt Doug area this past year for $1675/mo. Same house across the street sold for 589K in May to an elderly couple who had downsized from an acreage.

Were you to have been unfortunate enough to qualify for the mortgage with 10% down, principal, interest and taxes would put you around $3500 per month (not to mention the 60K down and all the legalities) spread that over 25 yrs and you pay twice as much for the privilege of owning while also paying all the repairs and maintenance (don’t forget the marble and stainless steel)
I left Victoria in July, I work in home renovations. I’m one of the lucky ones who saw this coming and realized that the house poor here could not afford the granite, stainless or me for that matter. Good luck my beautiful Victoria, I will miss my daily hikes up Mt Doug.

#90 Teulon on 10.11.12 at 1:18 am

Smoking Man @#28
Is that really you? Way too lucid!

#91 Zoronqueen on 10.11.12 at 1:20 am

http://www.vancourier.com/business/Mayor+affordable+housing+plan+relies+developers/7366946/story.html

Is the mayor delusional? There are projects in Vancouver who can’t even sell ie. olympic village and yet they want to build more?

#92 EI Dude on 10.11.12 at 1:21 am

Isn’t that photo a picture of the line up for the Madonna concert?

#93 renters rule on 10.11.12 at 1:28 am

Has anyone else seen this yet?

My God, we have exactly the same problems as the US did with mortgage fraud and abuse, we just did accomplished it by different methods…. jasuz

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

#94 Tim on 10.11.12 at 1:36 am

Keep waiting for that deep correction Garth, so you can get out of Hogtown and retire in Vic. Only trouble is, many of the grey hairs can weather a recession. They’ve already made their money and paid for their houses. Even if they are getting less on their fixed income investments, many are probably fairly insulated from economic conditions. Vancouver is a different story…

#95 Victoria Tea Party on 10.11.12 at 1:38 am

WHISTLING PAST THE ROSS BAY CEMETERY

That is such a beautiful place all year round and especially now with the leaves turning and falling and composting and so on…

I know, that’s a metaphor for our unwinding real estate market!

In that context, then, the next few lines penned by Sir Garth of The Obvious bespeaks of industrial-strength denial by the local real estate cohort, and thus the title of my post:

‘In short, Victoria real estate is probably hooped.

Mr. Neal thinks people should know that. So they can… buy immediately.

“It is an excellent time to buy, especially to trade up! For a personal consultation of your options in this market please call today!”’

Mr. Neal’s desperation will soon materialize into a wider fast-morphing trend infecting one neighbourhood after another, something akin to widespread panic amongst all the players here. Why?

Because real estate is perhaps the main foundational growth-element of this area’s private sector economy.

Sure we’ve got homes for ageing geezers, retail, an educational establishment, and military community.

But real estate is still the real meal deal, especially for the all- important tax-paying younger set and their families.

THAT debt-fuelled juggernaut is the motor that keeps so many “Victoria Lifestyle” adherents “going”, including going to the bank to make minimal credit card payments to, you know, live the good life at a sidewalk food emporium all the while figuring out where the next mortgage payment loot will come from.

Mr. Neal, good luck young man, and don’t give up the ship! It’s outta lifeboats!

#96 house burden on 10.11.12 at 1:51 am

Do you listen to a real estate agent or a real financial analyst

http://www2.macleans.ca/tag/housing-market/

#97 truth hammer on 10.11.12 at 1:54 am

Yer right G-man….this comment of the head cheerleader is complete nonsense…we’re talking barking stupid here.

‘People shouldn’t wait for prices to drop, because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy.’

You ask how this squirming toad got elected to the RE Board…..obviously you haven’t had the misfortune to be surrounded by RI ( BC) Sec 9.15 misfits who are primarily adult education re-runs whose course curriculum is graphic novel variety and exams are two page open book exams based on post it notes and hand drawn directions on how to calculate future value on a ten dollar calculator.

The average RE Board member is a ex-housewife….or high school drop out who has gone to night school and learned to follow the bouncing ball from the likes of Tsur Somerville……an education more akin to a weekend at Disneyland than anything you would normally think of as scholastic.

It takes less than twenty minutes to write the real estate exam……if you have grade twelve under your belt….three hours for a recommisioned dimwit in a pretty dress if you’ve studied under the ‘expert ‘ tutelage of Tsur Somerville at the week long night school course.

The real estate study manual is almost 40 pages thick…..that’s a lot for a moron I’ll concur……but the material is mostly pictorial……You’re average grade five student is smarter than a real estate grad.

The newly minted royals pretend to stand up to questions as long as they are not too specific…..but trust me …the patina is very…very…thin.

I real estate board meeting ( and I have attended several) is more like a barnyard junket…..or a petting zoo if you’re one who bends to every cynical stimulation.

The reason this skeasy real tard is spewing nonsense is because this is actually the way her mind works…..fractal, covetous, self appointed….righteous…but without the substance of any formal training….and therefore the equivelant of…..a barking seal.

#98 coastal on 10.11.12 at 1:57 am

Rebel Ron’s closing line reminds me of when I recently read of a local hot shot Victoria agent claims that a shack in the Uplands for $3.6 million is a “solid buy”. After picking myself up off the floor from excessive laughter, I had to read it again to see he was serious. I tell ya Garth, these rookie agents are going to get hung out to dry with their swollen heads from fleecing the sheep.

#99 2nd class on 10.11.12 at 2:00 am

“What is the difference between a real estate agent and a used car salesman…nothing!”

Dont know the difference but when you combine them you get an RV dealer..

#100 Bob on 10.11.12 at 2:30 am

Love how you reference these people and call them out. Likewise when you did the blog on the HPI. Please do more of these, they’re great reads. Thanks Garth!

#101 Blacksheep on 10.11.12 at 3:24 am

Smok’in man’s writer #28 + + + + +,

“no opinion of any sort”
——————————-
When you shared this ‘gem’ with us, I must admit, I envisioned the multitude of ways I could mock. Then you, having no viable retorts, would pretend to
ignore, as done in the past.

I then read your next FIVE ramblings penned in, 90 short minutes. At that point, realized there is no honour in kicking a writer when he’s down (metaphorically speaking) as my emotions went from gloat full to…well……sympathetic.

take care,
Blacksheep

#102 John on 10.11.12 at 5:02 am

“Coddled by the advertorial media, the industry’s had a free ride for years, telling consumers in a seller’s market they need to buy immediately and in a buyer’s market they’re nuts not to… buy immediately. These are the same guys who won’t allow consumers access to basic information..”
—–
Wait a minute. What are you talking about exactly? Unscrupulous realtors being “coddled” by the media?

1. Realtors
2. The media

Let’s run down the dynamics on that one. Who are you putting up against whom? Are you preparing to talk avout reality or not?

Did you think Merkel and Harper meeting together in Canada was about “the world” they are managing? Merkel “praised” Canada for it’s strong handling of the crisis and it’s “admiral” financial-economic system. The media sure coddled that too. Why?

Why not do a fluff piece on Merkel being supported by the media? Would it mean anything if you didn’t immediately deal with the obvious farse the visible “world leaders” are?

You’re still talking about real estate as if it weren’t driven by a banking cartel derivatives scam. A cheap money sale. I mean, that’s committment. To avoid this most basic fact over and over. And now turn to the guys selling the dough with the media.

It’s hardly relevant banter, albeit well-written and entertaining.

Your banter is leading people back to the ponzi. Back to the same banking cartels who partnered with government to spread the debt strategy. What’s up with that? And you’re talking about real estate agents? As if we’re in “another cycle”. Ignoring the real causes and effects? The true risk scenario…how it has unfolded and will unfold?

How long can it not be talked about? Since you’ve chosen to speak about real estate agents, you’ve chosen to “not understand” and avoid the real message of the “Canadian” housing bubble….you’re now accelerating reverse gear. People’s lack of awareness due to denial and too much “confusing” information may allow that yo happen.

To a point.

#103 Junius on 10.11.12 at 5:40 am

#4 TRT,

You said, “Why do you keep spewing nonsense year after year?”

Now there is the pot calling the kettle black. Has a week gone by in the past two years when you haven’t posted an “immigrants are coming to save the Re market post? If so, i don’t remember it.

Real Estate prices in most areas of Canada – including Kitsilano – will drop below 2008 levels over the coming years. This is my opinion in response to your fellow realtor’s comment.

I do not recall Garth saying anything about this specifically. Would you kindly point that out before asserting it? Like your friend Realtor 1 you appear to have a selective interpretation of hos words.

#104 Junius on 10.11.12 at 5:48 am

#23 Realtor #1,

You said, “I don’t understand why you guys hate Realtors?”

Most of us don’t hate realtors. What we hate the most is the Re establishment who pump and pump regardless of the economic facts and those realtors who do or should know better who play along with the shame.

I, for one, believe most realtors are decent people just trying to earn a living and are simply hostage to the perspective being sold to them from above. Ignorance is bliss.

However this blog does suffer from an unusual group of rabid and deceitful pumpers who do easily put you off those in the profession. BPOE is probably the most shameless although more cartoon character than substance. Whereas sone like TRT feign objectivity while pushing an agenda.

#105 Junius on 10.11.12 at 6:19 am

Realtor #1,

You said,”Remember prices of homes will also revert to the mean
So what is the mean? What should the real prices of homes be? in 2008 is was 450000, today it should be around 515K not the 625K.”

How are you calculating the mean? What are your assumptions based on?

I do not share your rosy view of the current state of the economy. Clearly you see 2008 as a one time event downward event in an otherwise continual upward trend.

I do not share this view. This is a balance sheet recession with lots more to play out.

#106 kenken on 10.11.12 at 7:19 am

CMHC: finally some ‘journalism’ from G&M
if the mandate of CMHC is to promote house affordability, the way i understand it is that it helps low to middle income earners to afford a house across the country… so why finance all priced houses and recently limiting it to $1MM
If a family is buying a $999,999 house, it seems they have the income to afford it..
they should cap houses to more reasonable prices
… lets say $500,000 – it would then be bull’s eye

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

#107 Timbo on 10.11.12 at 7:52 am

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2215642/Rich-Dad-Poor-Dad-bankrupt-dad-Best-selling-author-files-corporate-bankruptcy-losing-24m-judgement.html

“The financial guru behind New York Times bestseller Rich Dad, Poor Dad has filed for bankruptcy on one of his companies after losing a $24 million judgement.”

Ponzi economics coming home to roost…..

http://www.baycitizen.org/banks/story/canadian-bank-goes-after-homes-collect/

“California law generally makes foreclosure available only to lenders using residential properties as security, and collectors of unsecured debts, like credit card loans, normally are limited to attaching wages or bank accounts.

But Credigy Receivables – a unit of the National Bank of Canada, which has more than $150 billion in assets – has taken advantage of California’s relatively lax debt collection laws. The bank has repeatedly bypassed a legal hurdle that normally prevents credit card companies from threatening to take away the homes of debtors who refuse or are unable to pay.”

If you stop paying your credit card..
Canada’s going to come for your house.

#108 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 7:53 am

CREA, forgive them for they know not what they do.

#109 maxx on 10.11.12 at 7:55 am

Some still fork over a life’s worth of nearly all of their income for forced-price RE…..because a member of the ignorati succeeded in feeding them its views….what a perfect way to keep yourself poor(er) for life!

Happily, that is changing. Awareness is growing.

People make the markets and break them. Nothing has changed. Cash is still king and legions of RE holders want that precious cash and also be quit of that costly millstone of illiquidity with outsized carrying-cost increases going forward.

RE taxation is the perfect vessel for subsidizing and backstopping multi-level government shortfalls.

#110 Victor on 10.11.12 at 8:00 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

Flaws in a national databank that helps determine the value of houses across Canada have helped fuel inflation in home prices, putting mortgage lenders and borrowers at greater risk, key players in the housing sector have warned.

Documents obtained by The Globe and Mail detailing confidential statements from banks, appraisers and mortgage insurers show rising worry over the use of a database operated by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The documents suggest the data are flawed and help push home prices up.

#111 Picasso on 10.11.12 at 8:15 am

The real estate market blogs is just like the stock market blogs. You trash it when you don’t own it and you pump it when you do own it.

I find little statistical evidence of that here. What’s yours? — Garth

#112 Victor on 10.11.12 at 8:15 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/10/more-canadians-getting-the-message-on-debt/

A new poll suggests more Canadians are living debt-free this year compared to 2011.

The annual RBC survey found that 26% of respondents had no personal debt — excluding mortgage debt — in 2012, up from 22% last year.

However, the poll found that on average Canadians are carrying $13,141 in non-mortgage debt, up $84 from last year.

Ontario residents were carrying the heaviest load at $15,361 while Quebecers had the least at $10,171.

Some 40% of those polled said they were comfortable with their current debt level, down from 45% last year.

And one-in-three respondents said their debt levels are a source of anxiety — up slightly from 2011.

#113 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 8:22 am

But then we have done a piss poor job educating them. Too often telling them what they want to hear instead of what they need to know.

You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth.

Most want what Earlybird at comment #75 stated…

#75earlybird on 10.11.12 at 12:12 am
… when I use a Realtor I could care less about their Educational background. I am only looking for a killer salesman, with questionable morals, hard negociating skills, and a take no prisoner ego…

And that isn’t how it gets done, nor is it slapping a full colour ad in the newspaper or a fancy website or planting a for sale sign in the front lawn or even ‘merely’ posting a listing to the MLS that gets a property sold.

Eighty percent of what gets a home sold is knowing how to price it and while that may seem like an easy task 80% of the homes on the market miss the mark and if they ever do sell they do so, on average, for about 5% less and take more than twice as long as those which are priced correctly at the onset causing the sellers prolonged disturbance and inconvenience to their daily routine not to mention the perils of a market potentially adversely shifting beneath them.

What’s 5% of your home’s value? Sounds to me like a good REALTOR who gets your home sold quickly and for top dollar doesn’t cost you anything at all but rather saves you money.

#114 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 8:22 am

#101. Blacksheep

Sympathetic?

It went over your head too. Al of you so blinded by realtor blood lust you missed a hell of joke.

:)MO

I give up.

Its going to be a Nasty CRASH realtors, a Nasty CRASH

#115 Buy? Curious? on 10.11.12 at 8:24 am

I love the fact that realtors can say anything then use the Real estate board’s numbers to back any claim. When the poor people in Suburbia, the slums of the future, start to default, will they be able to hold to account the agent that talked them into buying that house?

I just hope that when forclosures happen that, people stop paying any and all debt, not worry about their credit scores and out to the Maritimes.

#116 maxx on 10.11.12 at 8:27 am

#23 Realtor #1 on 10.10.12 at 10:07 pm

“Let it go.” You wish. You lot are on the public’s radar for one very long time.

-YOU foamed up bidding wars;
-YOU get commission from lenders;
-YOU hire stagers to pimp up prices;
-YOU spray propaganda non-stop of the “buy now or buy never” variety;
-YOU continue to misrepresent what is actually happening in most markets……

All the RE buying public ever wanted is the facts and YOUR RE cartel is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that from happening.

“Let it go”? We’ll let the public decide.

#117 Picasso on 10.11.12 at 8:33 am

I find little statistical evidence of that here. What’s yours? — Garth

———————————————————

I don’t own, that’s why I like to visit this blog.

Compelling. — Garth

#118 live within your means on 10.11.12 at 8:34 am

TOT – Will soon be 65 so my Life Insurance plan with my previous employer (prov. govt.) will run out. Met with a lady from Sun Life Financial yesterday (have only the option of converting my previous plan with them). For a $60K policy, a 10 year coverage would cost me over $25K. No thanks. She tried to sell me several other plans. Had rec’d a letter from my previous employer stating that I have “only 31 days from the date your group life coverage ends to convert your life insurance to an individual policy if you want to do so without having to provide ‘proof of good health’ “. Sun Life lady asked me various questions about my health. Called NS PSC this am & told a Supervisor what questions I was asked. Supervisor said they had rec’d other complaints & was glad that I too had complained. She said she would contact Sun Life. I also suggested the govt. revise the wording in their letter. I will follow up in a mo, or 2 to see if they actually do.

#119 Picasso on 10.11.12 at 8:36 am

Is there a bridge from the mainland to the island or is it still ferryville?

#120 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 9:02 am

Surgeon General’s warning: Realtors contribute to the sudden onset of Bidding Wars!

They even ask for them, in MLS ads. (Bully offers welcomed.)

#121 Tom from Mississauga on 10.11.12 at 9:07 am

The City of Mississauga budget crisis has deepened. After announcing a 7.4% property tax hike in Sauga. Mayor Hazel wants to now have a Land Transfer Tax similar to Toronto.
http://news.ca.msn.com/ontario/mississauga/city-wants-land-transfer-tax-powers

#122 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 9:08 am

#28Smoking Man

WB? As in WB.TO (Whistler-Blackomb) – yield 8+%?

MO? As in MO.US (Altria) – yield 5+%?

(no position…)

“You gotta check yourself before you wreck yourself.”

#123 Buy? Curious? on 10.11.12 at 9:23 am

Smoking Man, what would consider excessive posting? I can understand 2. You post your idea then maybe retort to someone criticising or complimenting your original post. However, 7 or 8 before 9am is sad. Why don’t you write down your posts on post-it notes and keep them near your Norman Bates-esque mother’s computer. Then take a nap, do some laundry, or check out the position of the sun. You can’t start claiming Yoda is speaking to you without creeping out the people who come here.

#124 Van Isle Renter on 10.11.12 at 9:24 am

#88 Hawk on 10.11.12 at 1:07 am
#21 Marco from Van on 10.10.12 at 10:06 pm

=========================

I am not a realtor, but I think it seems a bit absurd to suggest that the MLS be completely opened up to the public when the system is created and paid for by CREA.

What might be fair is for CREA to get permission from sellers and buyers for recording and tracking their private information once a sale is completed. Maybe they could pay a small fee to the parties involved.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Fair enough, but then the CREA should then be barred from disclosing the MLS data to sellers and buyers. This type of selective use of data is unethical. There is no way for a client to figure out if he’s getting hosed or low-balled.

This is not an open and transparent system. It only exists for the benefit of the RE cartel. And as such, the controlled use of the data is clearly a conflict of interest.

#125 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 9:29 am

#81McLovin on 10.11.12 at 12:34 am

You asked me for the data and I provided it. That which I provided is raw unmanipulated in any way shape or form. I asked for the annual sales of Single Family Residential units in those years for the Central Okanagan Division and the system spit out all those as requested, I then did the same for Strata. Again this were not published stats these are stats derived from a database inquiry.

None-the-less I fail to see any significance in variation between those 2007 and 2012 published stats you appear to have found. By the way, 2007 was the year of peak volume, 2008 was the year of peak price. Price follows volume up or down. Seriously McLovin a 4.65% drop in the average sale price of a Single Family Home between 2007 and 2012?!?! That hardly supports your case. That is insignificant. And then to suggest “It will be 20 years before Kelowna condo’s get back up to 2007 prices in nominal terms”? I’d gladly wager a hefty sum against that contention.

But the bottom line is; I really could care less if you believe my information or not. The only reason I participate in this pathetic blog is my inexplicable to me compulsion to try my best to moderate anything too one sided. I truly do believe this blog will financially crush the hopes of more than those it saves – not necessarily because of Garths advice so much as the ignorance of so many of the commenters and Garths apparent inclination to fan the flames of those fires that burn within the ignorant for what purpose I do not understand. I am sure Garth would be the very first though to agree too many posters tend to amplify his message to a point of distortion diminishing the value of his original good intent. Consequently, it appears to me, Garth is being led down that path himself, blindly pandering to the ego stroking brethren worshipers of the World according to Garth. I once too was once somewhat a worshiper but have long since become quite disenfranchised after more than four long years of his wolf crying.

#126 Bobby on 10.11.12 at 9:30 am

Garth,
Pleased to see you have posted the asinine comments of the leader of the Victoria Real Estate Board. You can’t make this stuff up.
Irrespective of the comments of the fearless leader, here in Victoria the market is tanking. Properties are languishing on the market. The same listings expire and then are relisted again. Reduced is the new buzzword.
It is starting to get really ugly out there!

#127 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 9:31 am

Jimbo from last blog:

or this McMansion in King City for 2.2 million
http://www.REALTOR.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12435449&PidKey=-791929869

I’d say this one is worth 2.2mill ! In Toronto, 1500sq foot penthouse condos go for 1.5 million+. How about a whole mansion?

Let’s say $250,000 of land value (includes landscaping and pool.).
Plus – I’m guessing – 12,000 sq feet of house @ building cost $180/sq foot = $2,160,000.

Bigarider, GTA girl is this close?

#128 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.12 at 9:33 am

Eighty percent of what gets a home sold is knowing how to price it and while that may seem like an easy task […]

Or one that you can hire an “appraiser” to do for a few hundred clams. He’s got access to the same MLS that agents do, and he’ll show you the comparables.

Maybe tell us about the other 20% of what gets a home sold?

#129 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 9:38 am

#124Van Isle Renter on 10.11.12 at 9:24 am

You need to study the Law of Agency.

#130 raginnn on 10.11.12 at 9:39 am

So now CMHC is blaming a computer for their mismanagement of taxpayers’ money. The sh*tstorm is already hitting the fan and they are trying to cover their a$$es.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

#131 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 9:44 am

#120TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 9:02 am
Surgeon General’s warning: Realtors contribute to the sudden onset of Bidding Wars!

They even ask for them, in MLS ads. (Bully offers welcomed.)

Was it your property they were selling would you not want them to orchestrate a marketing strategy which would best ensure you got the highest price possible for your home? Or do you not own a home and that is your concern – that REALTORS working for the sellers might preclude you of such opportunity to buy for the ridiculously low price you might like to?

#132 John on 10.11.12 at 9:46 am

Junius wrote:

“I, for one, believe most realtors are decent people just trying to earn a living and are simply hostage to the perspective being sold to them from above. Ignorance is bliss.”
——

This is right on the mark. So why the emphasis on real estate agents?

I think the answer is clear.

Next step? Pave the way for the beginning of real problem analysis, debate and potential solutions. What options exist right now.

#133 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 9:47 am

#117Picasso on 10.11.12 at 8:33 am
I find little statistical evidence of that here. What’s yours? — Garth

———————————————————

I don’t own, that’s why I like to visit this blog.

Compelling. — Garth

Telling

#134 Picasso on 10.11.12 at 9:49 am

I find little statistical evidence of that here. What’s yours? — Garth

———————————————————

I don’t own, that’s why I like to visit this blog.

Compelling. — Garth

—————————————————-

Come on Garth, don’t act like you don’t know. I’ve been punted off real estate agent run blogs because I trashed. You can trash all you want here, no problem.

I bet the majority of the posters on this blog that trash don’t own. You won’t see a home owner on here trashing daily. lol

That’s just the nature of the beast… you pump when you own and want the price to keep going up (or it’s your livelyhood) and trash when you don’t own and want the price to come down.

You are acting in your own self-interest. This is news? — Garth

#135 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.12 at 9:51 am

I am not a realtor, but I think it seems a bit absurd to suggest that the MLS be completely opened up to the public when the system is created and paid for by CREA.

Imagine for some strange reason you want to sell your RIM stock…

– Hello, McLeod Bum Steer!

– Hi, I want to sell my RIM. What’s it trading at?

– Well, you know, every certificate is a little bit different. How about signing a representation agreement?

– Um, can you just tell me what it traded at last?

– Not unless you agree to a 5% commission to cover the cost of this two minute phone call, if and when you sell it through us or anyone else in the next four months

– ?!?!?

Society has gone through this fight with stock prices, horse race results, sports scores &c. Here’s the NBA being told to stuff it as recently as 1997: http://www.bitlaw.com/source/cases/copyright/nba.html

If real estate is the biggest investment most will ever make, and if society depends upon the health of the real estate industry, is pricing transparency not required? And hey, just because these chimps spent millions over decades to do a worse job than what a handful of Google programmers could accomplish in a few weeks does not, I assert, give them a perpetual license to teach us all an advanced class in How to Lie with Statistics. Also, if they wanted respect as guardians of the holy numbers, it would behoove them to police their own members, who every day input hundreds of listings which are incomplete, misleading or downright false.

#136 Daisy Mae on 10.11.12 at 10:07 am

CRABB: “People shouldn’t wait for prices to drop, because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy.”

**********************

Don’t worry, Garth! Anyone with an ounce of brains can see what a stupid statement this is….

#137 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.11.12 at 10:08 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/comments/

It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty crash!

#138 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 10:11 am

#116maxx on 10.11.12 at 8:27 am
#23 Realtor #1 on 10.10.12 at 10:07 pm

“Let it go.” You wish. You lot are on the public’s radar for one very long time.

-YOU foamed up bidding wars;

Rightfully so. It’s our job to get the highest price possible for our principals. You need to get your own agent to look after your interests – one of which is to educate you on what values are not what you would like them to be.

-YOU get commission from lenders;

By law we are required to disclose to our principals any remuneration we receive from any source pertaining to their particular contemplated real estate transaction before they execute it. Personally, as I have mentioned before, buyers I work with sign an Exclusive Buyers Agency Agreement where-in my remuneration is specificially set out and anything over and above it that I might be offered by a sellers agent or lender as bonus is immediately turned over to my buyer upon closing.

-YOU hire stagers to pimp up prices;

Again; Rightfully so. It’s our job to get the highest price possible for our principals. You need to hire an agent to calm you down from your horniness when you view such a well-staged property.

-YOU spray propaganda non-stop of the “buy now or buy never” variety;

Yes, some do but very few in reality. In any vocation/industry there are always a few bad apples. But more often it is a matter of listeners hearing what they want to hear rather than what is actually being said. Of those who do speak such SPIN, are you so weak and naïve and ignorant that you fall for it? Again, get yourself a good agent who will guide you through that B.S
.

-YOU continue to misrepresent what is actually happening in most markets……

Is that really true or is it that such foretelling as this blog offers is more in keeping with your personal agenda, hopes and dreams and as such you prefer to believe how it presents the market and not that which might offer something you would rather not hear even if it is the truth.

All the RE buying public ever wanted is the facts and YOUR RE cartel is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that from happening.

We publish and distribute those facts and they are manipulated far more maliciously to serve other purposes than that which you accuse us of doing.

“Let it go”? We’ll let the public decide.

EXACTLY and as it should be. Which is why 95% of buyers and sellers use a REALTOR®.

#139 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 10:14 am

Oh hang on let me get this one for you…

‘DELETED’

#140 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 10:23 am

#66titicaca

And here’s thoughtful Tanya posing for a few photos.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Albertans+upbeat+mood+about+economy/7362004/story.html

#141 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.11.12 at 10:23 am

So the big news item today is CMHC’s “EMILI” appraisal system is “flawed”.

Cool.

Given that EMILI was launched in 1996, pulling the alarm in May 2012 is a little late (ha!); but better late than never.

Good for the banks, positioning the blame in advance is a sound strategy. Bravo!

#142 Steve on 10.11.12 at 10:29 am

#112 Victor on 10.11.12 at 8:15 am
___________________________________

There is some ‘data’ presented in the article, but what does it mean? How statistically significant and reliable is it? How representative of the entire population are RBC online customers (which is the group surveyed)?

The general trends suggest that responsible people (RBC customers) with little or no debt are continuing to be responsible, perhaps getting more so by reducing to zero any small debt they had (rise in zero debt %), while others continue to overspend their present means with commitments of their future income. (rise in average debt $)

Their analysis excludes mortgage debt, which is the most relevant to this blog. It is a potentially natural consequence of a high mortgage, that other debt would be avoided, at least by the otherwise responsible.

As you can tell, this type of story/data aggravates me. Just like the HPI from RE boards, the numbers are questionable. Too many are ready to accept the reports as clear and simple ‘answers’, when that is simply not the way statistics really work. There should be way more thought on the part of the reader than seems to be typically invested.

Statistics (of any kind) can be a lot like inkblots, you are most likely to see what you most want to see.

#143 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.11.12 at 10:37 am

#119 Picasso on 10.11.12 at 8:36 am
“Is there a bridge from the mainland to the island or is it still ferryville?”

Who wants to go to the Mainland?

#144 Pr on 10.11.12 at 10:41 am

…excessive borrowing?…
The Bank of Canada should know buy now, that the prices of real estate are so high that any higer interest rate will destroy the economy of this ccountry.

#145 Ronaldo on 10.11.12 at 10:43 am

#69 Ralph Cramdown – ”I don’t understand why you guys hate Realtors?”

1. You can’t trust most of them.
2. Most lie through their teeth.
3. In a hot market, you don’t need them.
4. In a cold market, they push their own listings.

There are only a few good realtors out there. Most would be better suited to selling used cars.

#146 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.11.12 at 10:45 am

There is a realtor PANIC like never before. Was watching CP24 and they reported that home sales are down (crashing)in the GTA because of the land transfer tax in 2008…LOL Realtors are in a total panic since they are on the brink of going bankrupt themselves. Many realtors haven’t made a sale in six months and counting. You can understand that no income for over half a year would put you in a PANIC. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty CRASH!

#147 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.11.12 at 10:47 am

#124 Van Isle Renter on 10.11.12 at 9:24 am

I agree with your post and furthermore the MLS data isn’t private information and shouldn’t be.
Taxpayers backed mortgages, property taxes, financing and lien information, land transfer taxes, permits and licenses are all information that the public is involved in and should know about to protect themselves and be able to do transactions of all kinds.
You want privacy? Go love in the bush.

#148 Ronaldo on 10.11.12 at 10:51 am

#70 – The end is nigh –

And that is the reason I would never own another condo. A friend recently purchased an apartment condo only to find that she had to pony up 2500 dollars to cover her share for the replacement of exterior patio doors and windows. She got away cheap at that. Beware buying into older condo units. Strata councils that are run by owners tend to keep fees low and those that buy later on are stuck picking up the tab.

I know of another older gentleman who had to come up with $20,000 for his share to cover roof repairs.

I know of a lady that had to come up with $40,000 as her share to fix leaks in the building.

#149 thinker on 10.11.12 at 10:54 am

Garth, what she is saying is not clear, but it makes sense. For someone financing a home, even if rates up 1%, you overall cost represents 10% of the purchase price of the long term.

Simple example, if I buy a place for 1M, over 25 years, 1% or 10k a year becomes 250k or 25% drop in price is what I need the place to do to be equivalent of paying 1M today at the lower rate

Think about it. But it works both ways, rates can still go down

Rates will not go down. Nor will mortgages increase by 1% this year. Higher rates do not stimulate the economy. The woman should retire. — Garth

#150 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.11.12 at 11:13 am

the big news item today is CMHC’s “EMILI” appraisal system is “flawed”.

Cool.

Given that EMILI was launched in 1996, pulling the alarm in May 2012 is a little late (ha!); but better late than never.

Good for the banks, positioning the blame in advance is a sound strategy. Bravo!
———————————————————-

Hey smokingman you can understand this. The machine as you like to call it is setting up the housing crash to crush everyone into the poor house. Just like the machine crushing eveyone in the poor house in the US and everywhere else in the world. The rug is being pulled and so the crash is here and now. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty crash.

#151 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.11.12 at 11:17 am

Victoria? Not so bad.

(From the Globe and Mail.)

If you’re looking for a sugar daddy, then it’s time to book a trip to picturesque, and apparently naughty, Victoria.

The B.C. capital has topped a survey of which Canadian cities boast the most sugar daddies. The survey was conducted by SeekingArrangement.com, a site that connects men who have cash to burn with women “seeking mutually beneficial relationships.”

#152 Dupcheck on 10.11.12 at 11:24 am

Forget Toronto its time has gone, Kaput, London, ON, is a good city to live and have a normal family.

Who would listen. I have told my sister that tens of times, but i guess some people need to learn it the hard way. Go to Toronto i tell her and you would never get out of debt, you will never have financial freedom if you have a detached house/mortgage that would cost 650K minimum. London has everything you need in a 10 min span, malls, movies, groceries, downtown, etc. What does Toronto have to compare? It takes 45 min to get anywhere, you have to drive like you got out of a mental hospital, you have to pay for parking downtown, that beer that you wanted to enjoy all the sudden will cost you 10$ in gas to get there, +15$ parking, +1 hour lost in traffic stressed out, + 10$ beer, = 35$ for the same dang beer you could have had anywhere, and why? Ohh but this is Toronto the mighty town of broke people living on debt. Give me a break, this is madness and slavery combined. Open your eyes youth, you are brainwashed, Toronto is just an old lady with tons of make up, it will never be young again, its time passed 15 years ago, its odometer clocked 300k a while ago. No repairs will bring it back, even a new engine would not do it, its frame has rusted, its infrastructure is as old as an onion. Toronto has no hope for the new generations starting out or new immigrants with no money. Do your homework before you choose cities like Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, or Montreal. Do not let those nice summer patios fool you, it will cost you dearly.

#153 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 11:26 am

With great sadness I must report CBC is telling the world that stats canada said New Home Prices RISE 2 precent in august.

Damn realtors, must be an under the table cash deal.

Go get em LaughingCon

#154 Frank le Skank on 10.11.12 at 11:34 am

#99 2nd class on 10.11.12 at 2:00 am
LMFAO….One of the funniest jokes i’ve read on this blog!!

#155 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 12:05 pm

#151 – Eaglebay – Parksville: I don’t need the tip, as have all I can handle at Tims, and those rich babes pick up the bill for my eats; they call me honey which is much sweeter than a sugar any day.

#156 Steven Rowlandson on 10.11.12 at 12:10 pm

It seems that our minister of finance is a housing bubble denier. Watch the video to hear his confession.

http://news.sympatico.ctvnews.ca/home/we_all_are_vulnerable_flaherty_says_from_tokyo_finance_meetings/30ce9ef7

#157 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 12:15 pm

#123Buy? Curious?

Many people visit this pathetic weblog for only two reasons.

(In no particular order ;-). )

1. Garth.
2. Smoking man.

#158 dv8 on 10.11.12 at 12:19 pm

an absolute MUST watch

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=R6FVLZH_bTE

#159 Pr on 10.11.12 at 12:27 pm

146 Realtors are in an all out panic…

Many Realtors will have their best years in a depressing market.

The cream comes natuarally to the top!

#160 spaceman on 10.11.12 at 12:28 pm

they have’nt built new rental builings here for over 35 years .

True, but look out in Colwood, giant banner across the condo projects that overtook the area, NOW RENTING.

In victoria, they build multi-family units to condo specs, and then rent them out until the market is better. Then bingo, they turn back into condos… One new rental building is being built at Tillicum and Burnside.

#161 Ronaldo on 10.11.12 at 12:30 pm

#126 Bobby – “Reduced is the new buzz work”

In some other areas its ”New Price”. Sounds more positive I reckon.

#162 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 12:37 pm

Rates will not go down. Nor will mortgages increase by 1% this year. Higher rates do not stimulate the economy. The woman should retire. — Garth

Real estate board presidents are elected from a small number of candidates who are not unlike any other politician. It does not take a doctorate degree in economics to qualify for the job nor an accounting designation. It does not even require any significant accomplishment within the real estate community. Any member of any one of the over 100 boards in Canada can run for presidency of their local real estate board.

I am quite sure that Carol will experience a sufficient level of uncomfortable fallout due to her published comments – quite probably mostly in consequence to your overzealous public ridiculing. But those comments, beyond that in which she states ‘because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy’, are not nearly so erroneous as you paint them to be. At least she makes no potentially flawed prediction of what the future may or may not bring, choosing rather to report the verifiable past and present with which an informed reader might accept or reject as they formulate their own projections.

#163 Victoria on 10.11.12 at 12:45 pm

I am in the trenches so to speak. 4 kids in 4 different schools. One a private school. This is what I am hearing in the school yard….

Most people are having trouble making ends meet. This is all 4 schools middle to high income. At the private school more people have asked for bursaries than ever before. At the public schools some people are in the trades, some are professionals i.e. doctors lawyers, some are middle management and many work for the government. Some women work and some stay at home. Some families are young and some had their kids at an older age. At all my kids schools even the private one parents are from various socio-economic backgrounds. They are all saying the same thing. Everything is going up and many have spent far too much on their homes whether it is the Uplands or a semi in Royal Oak. People are stretched. People have spent too much on housing.

I was at the vet the other day and vet fees have gone up. I bought a turnip for a soup I was making – $1.50 for a stupid turnip.

We stopped a few years ago eating out. Cut out wine and starbucks etc. etc.

Everyone is talking about money and how they are finding it tough. Trying to save for retirement, kids education, insurance etc.

Just venting.

#164 TNT on 10.11.12 at 12:47 pm

@134 Picasso

Neighbours of mine on the golden coast( North Shore) bought 5 years ago did a massive reno and will be lucky to get close to what they paid….less the reno.

Manipulation in stats, RE tracking sites going missing.
Out and out BS on the mainstream pump.
Seems to me you are taking things a tad personal.
The bottom lines the bottm line, facts are facts.

Seems to me that you are taking things a tad personal.

#165 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.12 at 12:47 pm

#149 thinker on 10.11.12 at 10:54 am
—————————————–
it makes no sense. 1% increase in rates means that that house just got more expensive by $10,000/yr. That decreases the price the house can sell for (today).

She said ‘a 1% increase in rates would negate a 10% drop in house price’. That’s absolutely ridiculous. Maybe she doesn’t know the meaning of the word ‘negate’? She should have used ’cause’ instead.

#166 spaceman on 10.11.12 at 12:48 pm

A 3 bdr House in Vancouver goes for what ? 1.2 million… that same house in Victoria proper goes for what… $450 K ? (now it does).

So how can you compare the 2 ? A drop of 40% would be $180K… with interest rates not going up soon, (Garth said it not me) if prices dropped that far, and interest rates are so low, every renter would buy.

Wages are the same if not better in Victoria, its a Government town, even with the new rules, affordability is still a lot better than Vancouver.

Garth has been wrong before, get a copy of The Defense, written in 1998. In his defence, its a great historic look back on how people felt at the time, inclucing Garth, but hind sight being 20/20 a lot of the misconceptions of the day proved to be inaccurate.

Read the book and make up your own mind, and I hope I dont’ get banned.

#167 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.12 at 12:49 pm

#145 Ronaldo on 10.11.12 at 10:43 am
—————————————-
Although I have a good realtor, everytime I think about putting in an offer, all of a sudden there’s always magically a competing bid coming in on the same day! But then when I don’t go ahead with the offer, miraculously the house remains on the market….

#168 TEMPLE on 10.11.12 at 1:01 pm

#125 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 9:29 am
Seriously McLovin a 4.65% drop in the average sale price of a Single Family Home between 2007 and 2012?!?! That hardly supports your case. That is insignificant.

DA, that is not insignificant. When dealing with leveraged investments and 5+ years of inflation, a 4.65% loss is really bad news. It is even worse if the owner needs to sell, because once you add in transaction costs, a 4.65% loss becomes a major bath.

TEMPLE

#169 jess on 10.11.12 at 1:02 pm

http://www.secrecyjurisdictions.com/PDF/Ireland.pdf
http://www.secrecyjurisdictions.com/researchanalysis/kfsi/

Read a fascinating tale about how Ireland created a swamp of financial and tax abuse and crime.
===============
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Facebook’s UK corporation tax bill last year was less than it pays a single average worker
UK’s Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2215755/Facebook-paid-just-238-000-corporation-tax-Britain-year-diverted-sales-Ireland.html

He added: ‘These accounts show that Facebook is recording expenses through the UK to claim tax relief on them, but recording costs through Ireland to benefit from its low rate of tax. It’s the same old story of we pay the price and they get the benefit.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2215755/Facebook-paid-just-238-000-corporation-tax-Britain-year-diverted-sales-Ireland.html#ixzz290iwx58b
============

why opponents ???

Vance notes:

There is no reason why anonymous corporations should exist in the United States. Congress could eliminate them overnight, at relatively little cost, by passing the bipartisan Incorporation Transparency and Law Enforcement Assistance Act, which would require states to collect information about the real people who own or control companies. The Senate bill, which is pending before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, is supported by a broad array of law enforcement groups, including the Justice Department, the Society of Former Special Agents of the FBI, and the Fraternal Order of Police.

#170 gladiator on 10.11.12 at 1:05 pm

Garth, the party you have been talking about for a several years is about to begin and you quit now? At the most interesting moment?

On another note: I keep an eye on mls.ca (Toronto) and have a specific way of browsing listings by area. Today was the first time when I was “told” that my search returned too many results and that I have to refine my search and try again. I see more red dots than ever! Just wondering what that should mean…

#171 TNT on 10.11.12 at 1:08 pm

@ Smoking Man

With all seriousness, have you ever considered rehab, i have lost bunch of friends on the road you travel.

Ride hard die fast kinda s**t.
Its seems kinda glamour rogue until your hooked up to a machine knowing and wishing you could of done things differently.
The whole trac 5 or 6 thing sounds more like a crazy train.

You said you had a kid, this will not be a legacy to be proud of.
Not trying to sound like Dr Phil but this type of self abuse usually has a root.

Dude get some help it’s nothing to be ashamed of, many rockers and hard core enthusiasts have made it, a very wise and Yoda like decision.

Seriously man i do care.

#172 truth hammer on 10.11.12 at 1:21 pm

Garth…are you selling your squirrel recipies in Michigan?

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Resident+cooking+squirrel+propane+torch+have+started+Michigan/7375086/story.html

#173 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 1:21 pm

125};-) aka D.A.

DA is a master of false logic. His post is a gold mine.
Can anyone offer a professional diagnosis?

In the mean time:

1. Straw man argument.

“The only reason I participate in this pathetic blog is my inexplicable to me compulsion to try my best to moderate anything too one sided”

2. Appeal to authority:

“. I am sure Garth would be the very first though to agree too many posters tend to amplify his message to a point of distortion diminishing the value of his original good intent”

3. Poison the well.
(That was quick. Very mentally unstable, imo.)

“Consequently, it appears to me, Garth is being led down that path himself, blindly pandering to the ego stroking brethren worshipers of the World according to Garth”
e.

#174 Victor on 10.11.12 at 1:26 pm

Malcolm Hamilton – Should Boomers Count on Houses to Fund Their Retirement?

http://www.clientinsights.ca/en/libraries/top-expert/retirement-planning/malcolm-hamilton-should-boomers-count-houses-fund-their-r-0?accesskey=C9F51690-D0CE-A04B-EDC0-57A66542FAD2

#175 Daniel on 10.11.12 at 1:28 pm

and I shall call him mini-Garth.

#176 jess on 10.11.12 at 1:39 pm

third party auditors
In some cases, for-hire auditors have financial ties to executives at companies they’re reviewing

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-11/food-sickens-millions-as-industry-paid-inspectors-find-it-safe

#177 SRV on 10.11.12 at 1:40 pm

Thanks for the ViewPoint link Garth… always bugs me that every US listing includes full history yet we get nothing. Any chance the R/E cabal may move on this atrocity any time soon?

Some sweet deals in Lunenburg… may have to re-think the move to Kelowna!

#178 Rook on 10.11.12 at 1:47 pm

#149 thinker

You’re math is way off. You don’t pay interest on the original mortgage amount after the first year. In the last years of your mortgage, you will only have to pay a fraction of the interest you paid in the first year.

When interest rates go up, it will affect ALL homeowners who are on a variable rate and those who will need to renew. It’s ignorant to think that buying when rates are low will protect you from higher rates in the future. You will only save during the first few years before rates go up.

#179 Daisy Mae on 10.11.12 at 1:49 pm

#148 Ronaldo: “Strata councils that are run by owners tend to keep fees low and those that buy later on are stuck picking up the tab.

I know of another older gentleman who had to come up with $20,000 for his share to cover roof repairs.

I know of a lady that had to come up with $40,000 as her share to fix leaks in the building.”

**************************

Strata run by owners, while I don’t commend most of their decisions because they’re amateurs — volunteers — are free. It’s important to keep the contingency fund topped up to cover these expenses. Some are taking out reverse mortgages to cover costs.

#180 Daisy Mae on 10.11.12 at 1:54 pm

aka D.A.

I don’t own, that’s why I like to visit this blog.

Compelling. — Garth

Telling

********************************

Slow day?

#181 Elchavo on 10.11.12 at 2:00 pm

so interest rates are raised to stimulate the economy??

WTF CAROL !!! you’re the president of the board !! don’t you know better !!

c’mon man !! gimme a break !! what’s next carol?? the solar system is geocentric?

#182 fred flintstone on 10.11.12 at 2:10 pm

#145 Ronaldo on 10.11.12 at 10:43 am
—————————————-
Although I have a good realtor, everytime I think about putting in an offer, all of a sudden there’s always magically a competing bid coming in on the same day! But then when I don’t go ahead with the offer, miraculously the house remains on the market….
—————————————————

That kept happening to me. Dump the realtor.

#183 Mark W on 10.11.12 at 2:14 pm

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/410875–vancouver-second-worst-city-for-traffic-congestion-report

The Vancouver illusion takes another hit.

We have nice moutians, the ocean, and good weather (if you ignore all the rain).

Keep drinking the cool aid.

#184 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 2:16 pm

#168 TEMPLE on 10.11.12 at 1:01 pm

And that sucks for them. But they ought to have known going in that the market fluctuates and to go into such a venture as that then was a precarious move on their part to begin with.

Education is a bargain at any price. If you think not, try ignorance.

#173 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 1:21 pm

You may be right, I may be crazy
But it just may be a lunatic youre looking for
It’s too late to fight, it’s too late to change me
You may be wrong for all I know, but you may be right

You may be wrong but you may be right.

#185 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 2:30 pm

#180Daisy Mae on 10.11.12 at 1:54 pm
aka D.A.

I don’t own, that’s why I like to visit this blog.

Compelling. — Garth

Telling

********************************

Slow day?

If you call being up at 3:30AM PST and being time blocked from then on through to 9:00PM PST a slow day… sure. But it’s all fun. I get to do the business my way. If I couldn’t I wouldn’t be able to endure it.

#186 Canadian Watchdog on 10.11.12 at 2:33 pm

Brokers: Keep Emili

“To put the market back in the hands of appraisers could make a complete mess of things for clients,”

#187 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.12 at 2:37 pm

Although I have a good realtor, everytime I think about putting in an offer, all of a sudden there’s always magically a competing bid coming in on the same day! But then when I don’t go ahead with the offer, miraculously the house remains on the market.

You’re the one with the money. Put in an offer, or don’t. Don’t let intimations of phantom bidders influence what you’ll pay. If you think they’re gaming you, give them 60 or 90 minutes irrevocable. If they moan that they can’t do the deal that fast, tell them they’re free to make YOU an offer, but don’t be talked into resubmitting to them because they couldn’t get their act together.

#188 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 2:37 pm

171 TNT.

Glad you care, I took your advice and googled some help.

There is no rehab centre for people suffering extream imaturity syndrom.

I’m f-ed. As far as the other problems you think I have, well I may embelish a bit.

Now laughingCon. If you were one of my six friends you would have been advised on monday to short. HD. ITB. And XHB. Hd is on mon or tues posts. You would have made out like a bandent. If fact the free fall on those puppies has just started.

#189 Frank le Skank on 10.11.12 at 2:42 pm

#162 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 12:37 pm
Carol will get fallout for her predictably biased and sell-serving opinion.

#190 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 2:45 pm

Anyone who wants to buy an older condo unit do not be conned by the Real Estate agent, or some Lawyer who will do the vetting with the capital reserve fund on a closing. Never make an offer on an older condo unless the capital reserve fund is known, as the vendor has the figures with his association reports, so let the cards be placed on the table.

#191 xdisciple on 10.11.12 at 2:54 pm

#88 Hawk… The much-vaunted MLS system can be replicated in a matter of hours using software freely available on the internet. A database, a server network, and fancy shmancy graphical user interface software would be the backbone, again, all freely available to the average person willing to put in the few hours to make it happen. No, I’m not interested…

All that is missing is the actual data (the listings). I am surprised that no one has done this yet. Just take the listings from mls, and pretty soon nobody would bother to go through the 2.5% racket… I AM an ideas man…

#192 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 3:11 pm

#188 Smoking Man – as you are cool in my book, as anyone who knows about ‘ The Grass Roots ‘ with their hit song ‘Let’s Live For Today’ is a man who knows the past, and that was one great ride in life; let us never forget the good times in the past.

#193 jess on 10.11.12 at 3:15 pm

Oil Companies’ Lawsuit Seeks to Undermine Global Transparency .10 October 2012

API, in its suit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is challenging Section 1504 of the Dodd Frank Act and SEC rules that require oil, gas and mining companies to annually disclose their payments to governments, by country and for each project. The lawsuit was filed in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., by API, the Chamber of Commerce, the Independent Petroleum Association of America and the National Foreign Trade Council.

In June 2010 Congress passed Section 1504, the “Cardin-Lugar” amendment, with bipartisan support. The SEC issued rules in August 2012 to implement the law, after considering exhaustive formal comments from companies, investors and the public.

“These rules are part of a new global transparency standard for oil and mining companies, a model already taking hold in Europe and other markets,” said Kaufmann. “API’s lawsuit is trying to undo a law that helps investors analyze risk, helps the citizens of developing countries demand accountability from their governments, and helps the private sector as well, by promoting anti-corruption and open, competitive markets.”
http://www.revenuewatch.org/news/press_releases/oil-companies%E2%80%99-lawsuit-seeks-undermine-global-transparency

#194 TNT on 10.11.12 at 4:02 pm

@188 Smoking man.

Ok then, but remember de nial isn’t in Egypt

#195 Devore on 10.11.12 at 4:46 pm

And so it begins…

Flaws in a national databank that helps determine the value of houses across Canada have helped fuel inflation in home prices, putting mortgage lenders and borrowers at greater risk, key players in the housing sector have warned.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

h/t [email protected]

#196 Coho on 10.11.12 at 4:47 pm

#145 Ronaldo on 10.11.12 at 10:43 am
—————————————-
Although I have a good realtor, everytime I think about putting in an offer, all of a sudden there’s always magically a competing bid coming in on the same day! But then when I don’t go ahead with the offer, miraculously the house remains on the market….
—————————————————

That kept happening to me. Dump the realtor.
_______________________________________

Realtors also use this ‘phantom offer’ tactic when their contract to sell your house is about to expire. It happened to me….4 months with no offer then a day or two before expiry an offer pops up and pressure from the realtor that we need to renew with him so he can present the ‘offer’. WE TOLD HIM TO TAKE A HIKE and hired another one who sold the house in 5 weeks.

And just last month a friend told me this had just happened top them. This after a house (his deceased mother’s) was on the market for over a year without an offer! So, you can imagine how common this manipulative tactic is.

There’s a lot of realtor bashing on here, but this behaviour would be exhibited by 80% of people doing this job. Same goes for certain other careers. These jobs can bring can out the worst in people either motivated by fear to sell enough to survive, thirst for power, or by sheer greed and delight in hoodwinking someone because they are in a position to.

#197 brown on 10.11.12 at 4:47 pm

I received an advert in the mail from a realtor claiming he had clients interested in homes in my area. I called him and we exchanged information. A few days later he brought his client to see my property. A few days after that he called me to ask if he could bring me an offer, I agreed he could and we made an appointment. When we met to discuss the offer he informed me that he wanted me to pay him 2.5% commission. My question to the blog is , am I wrong to think that he is out of his mind? As far as I am concerned he is working for the buyer and not me. Am I mistaken?

#198 mythbuster on 10.11.12 at 4:49 pm

Here is my 2c’s worth about “How did this woman ever get elected?”

“Fools rush in”… into jobs that smart ones leave – seeing what’s coming. Obviously she is as ignorant as she is unscrupulous.

Some positions at some times require idiots to fill them. And if the audience of these idiots gives them any attention – they deserve what they get…

TREB is scraping the bottom of the barrel for business…

#199 Devore on 10.11.12 at 4:49 pm

Haha, popular link I guess. The other shoe will be an article about how there MAY be subprime mortgages and liar loans in Canada (but of course not nearly as bad as in the US).

#200 TEMPLE on 10.11.12 at 4:54 pm

#185 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 2:30 pm
And that sucks for them. But they ought to have known going in that the market fluctuates and to go into such a venture as that then was a precarious move on their part to begin with.

Education is a bargain at any price. If you think not, try ignorance.

I totally disagree with you, DA. In theory, part of the reason clients are hiring realtors is to take advantage of the realtor’s supposed market knowledge. Don’t you think that it should be your professional duty to share your “education” with your clients? Or does that interfere with your sales commission? Did you sell anyone a property in 2007 or 2008? Did you tell them it was risky and that they should wait?

TEMPLE

#201 Devore on 10.11.12 at 5:13 pm

#60 Hubris Hubris

The whole relisting business is so distasteful.

In the US, no one bothers to relist unless they change realtors. Anyone can go on Zillow, look up the address, and see not just the sales history, but also the listing history. There’s no point trying to hide it. In a market of open and transparent information, relisting is seen for the childish waste of time that it is.

In Canada, our wise Gatekeepers of Information decided price history is not relevant information buyers need to see to make the largest purchase decision of their lives.

Even more troubling, however, are the statistics derived from this relisted sales data. Any statistic coming from the official industry data that contains “days on market” or “sold at % of list price” or “% asking price drop” are dangerous garbage, because they’re based only on the latest listing.

#202 Devore on 10.11.12 at 5:19 pm

#200 TEMPLE

I totally disagree with you, DA. In theory, part of the reason clients are hiring realtors is to take advantage of the realtor’s supposed market knowledge.

As a matter of industry policy, realtors(tm) do not tell their “clients” what to bid on a property, or how much to list at. Instead, they “guide” by showing comparable sales listings. Which any idiot can go on zillow.ca to look up for themselves… ohhhh snap, there is no zillow.ca.

No wonder there is so much mystery, mysticism and voodoo magic in the real estate industry. Keeps the common people in awe of realtors at all the access to secret information they have (which everywhere else in the world is public knowledge), jumping at their every word. And they like to keep it that way.

#203 OkanaganInvestor on 10.11.12 at 5:22 pm

#81 McLovin on 10.11.12 at 12:34 am

McLovin, your case of a downturn in Kelowna house prices would be better served using the peak in Central Okanagan housing market from April 2008:

Average House Price (April, 2008) $552,830.87
Median House Price (April, 2008) $494,500.

http://www.omreb.com/files/04%20-%20CO%20Statistics%20April%202008.pdf

This would indicate an average price decline of 12% and median price decline of 10% to September 2012, which is an improvement from an average price decline of 25% to the recent bottom of $415,358 and 18% for the median of $404,020 in January of this year.

#204 jess on 10.11.12 at 5:44 pm

195 Devore

Michael W. Hudson has authored the best book on the current crisis (The Monster). It is largely a study of Ameriquest’s frauds and predatory lending. One of my favorite examples is Hudson’s story of Wendell Raphael, Ameriquest’s loan quality officer who wanted to reduce the firm’s endemic appraisal fraud (pp. 162-164). Ameriquest loan officers would call one appraiser after another until they found one who would inflate the appraisal value enough to allow them to close the loan. Raphael had the computer system changed to allow the loan officers only (!?) five chances to find an appraiser willing to inflate the appraisal. His change lasted one morning. The senior loan officers demanded that the change be rescinded so that they could continue to make fraudulent loans that were certain to cause severe losses…read more
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/10/the-best-way-to-rob-a-bank-is-still-to-own-one-a-postscript.html#more-3472
===================
another example of Quantity over Quality

wells-fargo-sued-by-us-government.html

The U.S. government sued Wells Fargo on Tuesday, claiming the San Francisco-based bank committed fraud by recklessly approving government-backed mortgages and then seeking government insurance when those loans flopped.

Officials with the U.S. Attorney’s office and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) made the announcement Tuesday. They contend in the lawsuit, filed in U.S. District court in Manhattan, that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has wrongfully paid millions of dollars in insurance claims on loans that defaulted.

“As the complaint alleges, yet another major bank has engaged in a longstanding and reckless trifecta of deficient training, deficient underwriting and deficient disclosure, all while relying on the convenient backstop of government insurance,” U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said. “As also alleged, Wells Fargo’s bonus incentive plan – rewarding employees based on the sheer number of loans approved – was an accelerant to a fire already burning, as quality repeatedly took a back seat to quantity.”

#205 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 6:02 pm

MIC.TO:
Genworth receives A minus credit rating from S&P

GENWORTH CANADA RATINGS CONFIRMED BY S&P AND DBRS

The ratings for Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada and its Toronto Stock Exchange-listed parent, Genworth MI Canada Inc., have recently been confirmed by both Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services and DBRS Ratings Ltd.

Genworth Canada’s financial strength remains rated AA minus with a stable outlook by S&P and AA with a stable trend by DBRS. The ratings reflect the company’s strong capital position and risk management expertise and prudential regulation by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, among other factors.

Genworth MI Canada’s issuer credit rating remains A minus with a stable outlook by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services and AA (low) with stable trend by DBRS. The company believes these ratings reflect modest debt leverage, strong debt service coverage and continuing business profitability.

The full ratings reports are available from the respective rating agencies.

#206 Steven Rowlandson on 10.11.12 at 6:10 pm

Those real estate agents really do think we all make 6 figure incomes and are made of money don’t they?

#207 IM in C on 10.11.12 at 6:11 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

And we thought only Real estate Boards generated Franken-numbers

#208 Justsayin on 10.11.12 at 6:11 pm

I live in Victoria on the 12th floor of an apartment building. I have an unobstructed 270 degree view of the ocean, Olympic mountains, and right around to Victoria’s inner harbour. The rent in this very quiet concrete building is $965/mo with no lease. The previous tenants had been here for 12 years and left almost one year ago when they had saved enough to get into a condo. I wonder what their rent was seeing as they had been here for 12 years with only a 4% max increase per year. Certainly it was cheaper than $965. I bet they regret that decision as a condo with this view would go for $750,000.

#209 panhead on 10.11.12 at 6:20 pm

#181 Elchavo

in Canada that would be geometric …

#210 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.12 at 6:26 pm

#197 brown on 10.11.12 at 4:47 pm
——————————————-
He found you a buyer so I would say you are entitled to pay him a finders fee.

#211 jess on 10.11.12 at 6:51 pm

scum

Toronto police allege that two Richmond Hill men defrauded an elderly woman by convincing her to pay more than $138,000 for repairs to her home.

According to police, the two men approached first approached a 92-year-old woman in April and “solicited repairs to her home.”

Police say the men caused the woman to worry about repairs on her home and requested money from her to buy materials and to obtain permits.

The two accused — Scott Eisemann, 43, and Anthony Taylor, 41, — were arrested Thursday. They are due to appear in court next month on fraud charges.

Police believe there may be other victims

#212 AACI Okanagan on 10.11.12 at 6:52 pm

realtors do not set market value, buyers and sellers do..

#213 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.12 at 6:52 pm

#187 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.12 at 2:37 pm
——————————————
Thanks for the advice. You’re wrong on one account though — it’s the bank with all the money. lol

#214 eastvanspecial on 10.11.12 at 6:59 pm

“I think it (a low interest rate environment) is going to last for years. There’s a lot of liquidity, a lot of deleveraging yet to come through the system around the world and that all says to me, low for long,” Dean Connor, president and CEO at Sun Life Financial

#215 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 7:01 pm

I almost forgot what I saw today, and it was a first, as this truck was in front of me with this big ad at back, from some Real Estate guy saying give me a lead for a good Real Estate deal, and will pay $1,000 with all his contact info. I kid you not!

#216 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.12 at 7:03 pm

#168 TEMPLE on 10.11.12 at 1:01 pm
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Actually a 0% increase from 2007 to 2012 could be quite significant for those with 0 or 5% down, simply due to transaction costs. They would lose money even in that scenario.

#217 Macrath on 10.11.12 at 7:10 pm

Behavioral Economics, Neuro-Finance, & Faulty FinancialDecision-Making

Presentation by Barry Ritholtz

http://www.scribd.com/doc/109561469/TBP-Conf-Oct-2012

#218 Investx on 10.11.12 at 7:27 pm

61 T.O. Bubble Boy:

Good to know that $600B in Canadian Taxpayer guarantees via CMHC have relied on a flawed system.

————————————————–

The $600B is all taxpayer money? What about the insurance fees that the homebuyer pays?

#219 Canadian Watchdog on 10.11.12 at 7:30 pm

#205 TurnerNation

“Genworth receives A minus credit rating from S&P”

Genworth’s “strong capital position” stated by S&P is from Government funds being returned to the company. During the summer (when nobody was looking) Flaherty amended the insurance act allowing private insurers to post NO collateral for the 90% government-backed guarantee. Link

So now taxpayers are holding ZERO collateral if Genworth defaults, which pretty much guarantees they will be bailed-out or nationalized if they go bankrupt.

#220 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.11.12 at 7:38 pm


Pondering on The Fourth Reich, this was wrh.com’s Thought For The Day:

“The enemy is the German Reich and not Nazism, and those who still haven’t understood this, haven’t understood anything.” — Churchill’s chief counselor Robert Lord Vansittart (September 1940 to foreign minister Lord Halifax)
*
Cover My Ass; Jack Welch Cooking the books; 1:30 clip Bond vigilantes; The Celiac Husband This may be if interest to you; Iceland’s Economy Put the banxters in jail for life! MF Global Settling claims of less than US$50K. That’s chickenfeed; US govts. exports fall five straight months; FedEx Cutting thousands; Iraq Wants Exxon out, Russian companies in; Hugo Chavez and the Arabs; Coca Cola quits Greece, and Germany Economic growth halved; Food inflation surging.
*
9:15 clip SArabia. Hmmm; Short clip, but see headline; Listeria has a negative effect on the body; Local paper Fresh oil seeping into GoM; Bill Maher Promoting death. Been there, done that so I know life continues; Louisiana sinkhole Growing in leaps and bounds; 4:50 clip Biotech scientist in favor of sterility; Ginger Selectively kills breast cancer cells; Kellogg’s Enjoy heavy metal cereal.

#221 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 7:49 pm

I have seen them come and go over the years be it small Trust Companies; Mortgage Companies, or huge Real Estate firms, but when the show is over on stage with the 3rd act the curtain will close on them too, as greed has a way of leveling the field into painful sense of reality.

#222 rob c on 10.11.12 at 7:58 pm

Looks like the market is going to tank. Prices have increased way to rapidly. I kept telling this to a friend of mine. He thinks his 1800 sq ft house worth 420k right now will be worth 500k next year (brampton). Im telling him to dump it ASAP otherwise all is equity will be gone pretty fast. I bought a home in Brampton in 2003 worth 480k (3700 sq ft). Now its worth probably 800k. Almost double in 9 years. Seems like a normal rate of inflation? Probably not. Sold that place few years ago.

Now we’ve just sold our existing place as well, thank god. Going to rent for who knows how long until market goes back to normal.

It’s unfortunate what’s happening. Agents were enjoying the great benefits thinking it might go on for a long time. Now they will suffer.

#223 Canadian Watchdog on 10.11.12 at 8:00 pm

#204 jess

Good link.

Deregulation, desupervision, and/or de facto decriminalization. That’s the state of our market and the ONLY way prices could have soared to current levels. People won’t believe it until it’s exposed.

#224 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.11.12 at 8:19 pm

@ #218 Investx on 10.11.12 at 7:27 pm
61 T.O. Bubble Boy:

Good to know that $600B in Canadian Taxpayer guarantees via CMHC have relied on a flawed system.

————————————————–

The $600B is all taxpayer money? What about the insurance fees that the homebuyer pays?
————-

CMHC has about $8 billion (might be up to $10B now) reserves against the near-$600B in insurance.

Those fees don’t mean squat – most go to operating CMHC and building low-income housing.

#225 };-) aka D.A. on 10.11.12 at 8:20 pm

#200 TEMPLE on 10.11.12 at 4:54 pm

I totally disagree with you, DA. In theory, part of the reason clients are hiring realtors is to take advantage of the realtor’s supposed market knowledge. Don’t you think that it should be your professional duty to share your “education” with your clients?

ABSOLUTELY!

Or does that interfere with your sales commission?

My commission is secondary to my clients best interests which if and when served will ultimately reward me all that I deserve.

Did you sell anyone a property in 2007 or 2008?

Not as many as I could have.

Did you tell them it was risky and that they should wait?

That is precisely why I did not sell as many properties in 2007 and 2008 as I could have

#202 Devore on 10.11.12 at 5:19 pm

You think pricing a home is so easy? Fill your boots. I am a REALTOR and I would not price my own home let alone try sell it myself. I would enlist the help of a trusted REALTOR to do all that for me for one primary reason – because I am too emotionally attached to my own home. Their circumventing that one contentious issue alone is well worth what I’d have to pay – and I do pay. You may think you could do it yourself, but I seriously doubt it.

#226 Daisy Mae on 10.11.12 at 8:23 pm

#163 Victoria: “I was at the vet the other day and vet fees have gone up. I bought a turnip for a soup I was making – $1.50 for a stupid turnip.

We stopped a few years ago eating out. Cut out wine and starbucks etc….”

************************

I was one of those stay-at-home moms and found it very challenging, making ends meet. But it was fun! As I say, a challenge. We had all the toys. We didn’t do without.

If you’re not into stomping grapes, try Wine Kitz — about $6.50 a bottle. Just heard on the news — red wine is very good for women!

#227 TurnerNation on 10.11.12 at 8:41 pm

Err, looks like Kelowna’s embraced Donkeynomics eh guys?

Over to you, DA.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/10/10/bc-kelowna-festival-bestiality.html

Controversial documentary forces Kelowna film festival move

But this year’s program includes the movie Donkey Love, a documentary about village life in remote parts of Colombia where men have sex with donkeys.

It has screened at four film festivals around the world and won the best documentary award at the Melbourne Underground Film Festival.

After local media reported on the film’s inclusion last week, outrage quickly spread over social media.

#228 Smoking Man on 10.11.12 at 8:42 pm

Vlad

Jack Welch takes one to know one.

Note I called the jobs report bs before him

LOL

#229 willworkforpickles on 10.11.12 at 8:45 pm

I know a smiley faced realtor of 30 years who appears to have this shit eating sort of a grin permanently ingrained on his face that would surely require plastic surgery to remove .

#230 Old Man on 10.11.12 at 8:47 pm

I will tell you how bad things are in the real world, as transfer funds from one bank to another, so went today to my branch at the Royal for $90.00 that will always leave me with a float balance of $10.00, and they laugh at me, as will bring in via a bank transfer from my investment account to them, and them write out a deposit cheque as a deposit with TD, as that is where I get my green.

#231 rob c on 10.11.12 at 8:58 pm

found an interesting read

http://www.1feesale.ca/blog/There-Will-Not-be-a-Housing-Market-Crash/

#232 simkev on 10.12.12 at 8:05 am

#28 Smoking Man
Self-Promotion = Self- Rightous = Crash and Burn !

#233 TNT on 10.12.12 at 3:01 pm

The freaks didn’t sign no sheets.

#234 Jj on 10.13.12 at 12:59 am

29 yr old making 39
No debt
Paying 865 for 1 bed in Victoria
Where is my future?!!!