The future

Luke is 22, and a year ago graduated from university with a business degree. “I’m only now beginning my job search,” he says (which makes me wonder what he’s been doing), and living with my parents while doing so.”

I guess he’s typical of 22-year-olds today, at least as far as I can tell. Hard to know if it’s prolonged education, student debt, helicopter parents or the economy that’s extended childhood, but things have changed. I married at 21, and only because Dorothy fought me off for three years. We moved into a trash apartment, had nothing except her wedding ring, and got robbed. They took the ring. When I couldn’t suffer graduate school any longer, I gave back my puny scholarship and we lived on air. So I parked cars at a Toronto hotel famous for gay hookers. Nobody else would do it, I guess.

Soon a job came up in a brewery, slinging cases of empties onto a conveyor belt all night. (The brewery is now a condo.) But the empties weren’t empty. Dead, drunk mice commonplace. The doctors said they figured that’s where I inhaled the virus which gave me the pleurisy which crippled and cost me the job. But then I stumbled into a hick newspaper office, trying not to cough up blood, and claimed I could write a little. They hired me. Dorothy was in school a province away. But at least I had work. In time, things turned out.

But I digress.

“I recently stumbled upon your blogs,” says Luke, “and am emailing simply to thank you for writing them. I wish more people my age were interested in the world’s economic future, but my generation sucks, so I feel we are screwed no matter what happens. Luckily, your blog has got me interested in this stuff, and I feel I have a safer and more secure future thanks to it (at least financially). The world needs someone like you to develop a foolproof program to teach youth and 20-somethings about the importance of this stuff and to get us all interested.”

Letters like that are appreciated. Seems this pathetic blog has an audience which spans many years, from the moist virgins to the wheezy geezers. The one thing we all have in common is the present. It’s a much misunderstood time.

I disagree with Luke. He’s not screwed. He may have spent far too much of his life chasing a degree which is nebulous in value, now that everyone has one and electricians pull down more than teachers with an MA, but he can probably blame the choppers for that. From an economic point of view, however, risk is falling continuously. The years ahead, at least a decade or so, have the potential to be far better than the ones just lived.

Often I’ve mentioned that we’re closer to deflation than inflation. The future will likely be low-growth, low-yield, low-rate and full of lowly expectations. House prices will start going down, after a generation of going up. Interest rates will rise, but slowly and predictably. The economy will grow, but almost imperceptibly. Cars and iPhones will grow less expensive each year. People like your parents will dump properties for a fraction of what they once thought they’d get. Governments, unable to enforce, will regulate less. Entrepeneurs will be respected again. The US will recover, Europe stabilize and you’ll never live through another 2008.

Challenges will be plenty, of course. Jobs will pay less and be no easier to find. Nobody will be buying first houses with five per cent of the money. Boomers will moan about fading pensions, and stay in their cubicles until they keel.

The biggest hurdle will be getting over expectations. Your folks, if typical, won’t retire into thirty years of financial tranquility. Your peers, by and large, will never earn a hundred grand or drive a Boxster. The years ahead promise less, not more. Once you accept that, it’s all good. Stable and predictable, at least by comparison.

When you’re forty, remember these days. They’re when people from Regina or Calgary said, ‘it’s different here,’ when the metalheads promised the end of money, when realtors were rock stars and folks were afraid of liquid assets. In the present day, most think the risks are inflation and loss. In reality, they’re deflation and time. Most will not lose money, but outlive it. That’s worse.

So, Luke, take heart. Adapt, and discard the outmoded rules you were brought up with. Stay interested, always more concerned with experience and knowledge than with stuff.

And remember how lucky you are. You could have been me.

287 comments ↓

#1 John on 10.05.12 at 9:04 pm

LOL… in Vancouver they’re having conferences to convince people HAM is still buying there.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/10/real-estate-industry-tries-to-reassure.html

#2 JO on 10.05.12 at 9:07 pm

Hi Garth, we are seeing a major slowdown in apps from first time buyers and many others are too. It’s about time the market is slowing..it was being driven by weak buyers and speculators so i am glad the gov’t tightened the rules to stop the nonsense.

Anyway, what areas of the GTA do you think are best for future RE values outside of downtown TO ? We are looking at buying in 12-18 months and need to be within an hour of downtown TO.
JO

#3 claudius emperor on 10.05.12 at 9:07 pm

The US will recover NOT, Europe stabilize NOT and you’ll never live through another 2008 NOT.

There would be no return to the old normal. New normal would mean jobs with minimum wages, 5-10 percents middle class, 0.1 ultra rich and the rest poor.

You’re an old guy, right? Thought so. — Garth

#4 Victor on 10.05.12 at 9:08 pm

The Toronto condo project “does seem a bit late,” said David Madani, an economist in Toronto with Capital Economics. “It’s definitely a more risky period to be thinking about building, particularly when inventories are very high and there’s already a backlog of work under construction.”

The strongest sign that government efforts to damp the housing market came with the August home sales data, which showed sales falling the most in two years. That was the “first full glimpse” into Canadian housing after the mortgage rule changes, Sonya Gulati, senior economist at Toronto Dominion Bank, said in a note to clients Sept. 17. The weakness in August home prices and sales was expected and the regulatory-induced cooling will continue for the next eight months, she said.

“The Canadian housing market has indeed ratcheted down its growth pace,” she said in the note. “In most local markets, it has reversed course with price and sales contractions becoming more the norm.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/05/torontos-tallest-condo-towers-designed-for-bull-market-that-no-longer-exists/

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.05.12 at 9:09 pm

Luke missed the boat — he has a degree and a pulse, which would have qualified for a giant mortgage up until this year.

But – he’ll be renting and/or living with mommy and daddy through this housing downturn, so things should turn out just peachy for him in 5-10 years.

#6 Really on 10.05.12 at 9:11 pm

Garth – your writing and your stuff is so good – except when you say that the USA will recover and that there will be no 2008 again.

It’s that stuff that causes me to lose confidence in your calls. It’s also inconsistent with your calls.

What are your apologetics for the USA debt issues? How do you explain any reasonable European solution that doesnt involve major printing? How does this not ultimately create major major havoc?

I don’t get this part of your forecasting. I hope you are just not anti metal anti debt collapse for sport, but have though it through.

Can you do a full post on it and explain how yku think government is going to solve those problems
And yet not have the uninteded consequences of solving those problems??

#7 Old Man on 10.05.12 at 9:13 pm

What Garth said brings tears to my eyes, as he is right, and it reminds me of people talking about the past be it financial; messing up in life; or a romance that went bad. There are many things in my life that wish I could change, but one can never go back, but simply move forward for a better day.

#8 TurnerNation on 10.05.12 at 9:14 pm

Here’s this week’s xurbia-styled tip:

– Cooking Dinner:

Locate an large empty juice tin. Punch a few small holes into its lower sides.
Turn can upside down, place one or two small candles inside.

When tin’s upper surface becomes hot, place squirrel carcass or pigeon leg onto it. Sear until flesh becomes flakey.

Presumably you read Chapter 1 already: hunting urban game.

#9 TurnerNation on 10.05.12 at 9:26 pm

Today’s protagonist needs to begin “building equity”. Along the lines of a $300,000 550sq foot Toronto condo mortgage, $350/mo condo fees, $200/mo taxes.
I think we have a realtor or two on the blog who can set him up…
[email protected] will oblige.

10 years ago, out of Uni, I worked in a call centre. Its pay: $11/hr.
Today, call centres like Aeroplan’s pay, wait for it…$11/hr.
Of course gas back then was .80/l. Food, insurance, transit, were 1/3rd cheaper all.

You’ve come a long way, Track6er?

There’s hope: today my total compensation just hit
the 6-figure mark. Which in today’s dollars is barely enough.

#10 claudius emperor on 10.05.12 at 9:31 pm

yep, experience sometimes comes with age

#11 MB on 10.05.12 at 9:40 pm

Remax started airing tv commercials lately in Toronto; I’ve never seen that before.
I’m guessing that they’re anticipating a big surge in listings this fall and are launching a preemping strike.

#12 Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 9:46 pm

DELETED

#13 Old Man on 10.05.12 at 9:50 pm

” What through the radiance which was once so bright be now forever be taken from my sight. Though nothing can bring back the hour of splendour in the grass of glory in the flower we will grieve not. But rather find what remains behind. ”

– William Wordsworth

#14 Bottoms_Up on 10.05.12 at 9:51 pm

And here I thought houses in Waterloo were going to average 5 million in a decade?

Luke you have youth and freedom on your side, take advantage and think really hard what you want your next few years to look like (memories ARE important).

Oh yea, and always live below your means. Long live liquidity.

#15 kenken on 10.05.12 at 9:52 pm

“The US will recover, Europe stabilize and you’ll never live through another 2008.”
Of course the US and Europe will recover…but when? it will take a decade probably!!
so why no 2008? from 2009 to 2012, all the increases in stock market were out of thin air! no real fundamentals and no great outlook!
so what then????

#16 COW MAN on 10.05.12 at 9:53 pm

Garth:

Those of us who knew you as the best Federal Member of Parliament the Region of Halton ever had, are glad you learned the hard way. Thanks

#17 Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 9:53 pm

What is it with my obsesion with jis pathetic bloog

What si it about gartos sole

I love the guy, not a f

What I lovE he middle fingereed Harpo the biggesr tratoir to this beuty land

I’m wasted

And finished. — Garth

#18 Bottoms_Up on 10.05.12 at 9:54 pm

#6 Really on 10.05.12 at 9:11 pm
—————————————
If the US is so screwed, why is the entire world flocking to their dollar?

Are you really smarter than all the rest?

#19 meslippery on 10.05.12 at 9:55 pm

I think that we being Canada and the US for that matter
would be further ahead if we employed our people living
here in North America.

This taken from another blog comments.

Hallen
October 5th, 2012 at 8:59 am · Reply

We haven’t seen a real good debate since Ross Perot in the 1992 election cycle. Ross Perot told us the giant sucking sound we will hear will be the jobs leaving America.

Those who supported NAFTA and all the other trade agreements are responsible for the unemployment and the economic down turn.

Those who supported tax incentives for manufacturers to leave America are responsible.

Now the real question to ask, who did this to us. Answer, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama and Romney.

Americans are responsible too for voting for these guys.

——————–

We bring in people to work brain dead jobs because
Canadians wont do it…

No we just wont do it for what they want to pay.
So in a no-free labour trade they would have to pay
enough to get us to do it.

Less UI and less unemployment.

1983 my Wife made $ 9.57 per hr doing brain dead factory work,
2012 same work $10.50.. real spending power not
priceless.

#20 KG on 10.05.12 at 9:56 pm

Great post and thanks for sharing.

How do you reconcile the massive debts around the world with your optimistic (since it does not factor in a recession) outlook.

#21 Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 9:57 pm

Weeel if ther one above got deletet thE second and thErd will

O well

#22 COW MAN on 10.05.12 at 9:57 pm

#6 Really

To support your concerns, Greek citizens stormed the Defense Ministry in Athens today. The Neo-Nazi Party is gaining strength. A Canadian Real estate slow melt, may not be our biggest challenge.

#23 East Van on 10.05.12 at 10:01 pm

The future is not at all stable nor predictable. Catastrophic climate change, drought, crop failure, famine, climate refugees, sea level rise, wars over food and water, ocean acidification, and social unrest are already here. More to come.

#24 moving east on 10.05.12 at 10:05 pm

Was free beer one of the perks of your job?

Of course. — Garth

#25 Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 10:12 pm

DELETED

#26 Fort Mac Flatlander on 10.05.12 at 10:14 pm

With helicopter Ben trying to replace the delevaraging of credit in the US with further stimulus, similar in Europe and a coming trade war between China and Japan, why have we not seen any major moves in the Canadian dollar. Is the Bank of Canada adding additional liquidity with no-one noticing or is this because we are a commodity based economy with future troubles ahead?

Any insight Garth?

Thanks as always, great writing again.

#27 walter safety on 10.05.12 at 10:14 pm

Luke , do what boomers do, that is look back. In your case only one year . Now ask yourself – why didn’t I work in a camp in Alberta , logging 2800 hrs and banking 100k ?
Well why didn’t you ?

#28 tkid on 10.05.12 at 10:18 pm

Turnernation, here’s a scientific experiment for you:

Get one of those cast iron tea warmers from Teopia and a couple of tea lights and an empty pop can. It has to be a cast iron tea warmer (they cost $18+) as the glass ones are useless in this example.

Place some form of insulation between the cast iron tea warmer and the surface underneath. One of those cork mats from Ikea works well to prevent the surface underneath from being scorched.

Place three lit tea candles inside the tea warmer.

Fill the empty pop can full of water, then place it on top of the cast iron tea warmer.

In 60 minutes the water inside the pop can will boil.

If you are caught away from any other sources of fuel or heat (say you are on the 20th floor of a condo building that has banned barbeques) and the power goes out, you now have a way to make tea, coffee, instant soup etc … and you will only use ordinary chic-condo supplies.

The cast iron tea warmer gives off a surprising amount of heat.

#29 tow mater on 10.05.12 at 10:20 pm

Peoples crazy high expectations are what got us into this mess. Why delay gratification when you can get anything and everything now and pay monthly forever.

If we want our next generation to live happy, and content lives we need them to learn the difference between what they want and what they need.

#30 Canadian Watchdog on 10.05.12 at 10:22 pm

Sneak peak at who just popped out of the alleyway and is about to throw recent and pre-construction speculators right under the bus. Vancouver MLS Sample Listings

Now that early buyers (owners) got the word, they’re starting to hit the market to cash out, only difference between them and new sellers is that these folks can afford to sell at a 10-20% loss, new sellers can’t. This will intensify as prices go lower, spooking older owners to hit the market before their equity is wiped out. This is (like all bubbles) the negative feedback loop when a market unwinds.

#31 Karla on 10.05.12 at 10:26 pm

I’m that teacher with an MA! I’ve seriously considered work as an electrician. I figure that would be less stress for as much or more pay. My second choice would be plumbing! Wondering why I spent eight years of my adult life earning three university degrees for the income I make now!

#32 Fort Mac Flatlander on 10.05.12 at 10:32 pm

#28 tkid

You are aware that aluminum pop cans have a inner plastic liner?

Just checking.

#33 2nd class on 10.05.12 at 10:38 pm

My friends won’t be making over 100k a year? None of them drive porsches but they sure like their jacked up pickups.

Might be true for most of canada and alberta but not in some lines of work.

I agree with most of what you say garth but certain skilled jobs in the oilpatch wages will continue to rise. Even if oil crashes to 50% of its price there are still jobs that will need to be filled by qualified people. Where a mistake can cost the company hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in lost production and a persons wage is a very small cost of doing buisiness.

The smart ones in these positions are going to live good buying up everything they can at firesale prices.

#34 Julia on 10.05.12 at 10:40 pm

CAMH has a concurrent disorder progrm that can help you Smoking Man. Help for your alcohol and bipolar disorders.

#35 Devore on 10.05.12 at 10:43 pm

Dangers of private REITs (or any non-publically traded investment).

Rachelle of Landlord Rescue has spied that League REIT has suspended distributions, most of which were BS return of capital anyways. Not that you would know, as their published NAV doesn’t reflect this.

Someone was asking here about this one recently, no? Hope they didn’t put any money into this turkey. Something about staying liquid and diversified?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/08/26/mr-market/#comment-192063

#36 happy renter on 10.05.12 at 10:58 pm

I have to disagree with Garth on 2008.Peter Schiff,Jim Rogers ,Marc Faber ,Doug Casey and Max Keiser all very smart investors all say the about the greater depression.Max says by April ,it will be worse than 2008.Why would they say this only to prepare the people.

#37 Elsenore on 10.05.12 at 11:03 pm

Hey, wasn’t that the same job Bob and Doug McKenzie had in “Strange Brew”?

#38 unhappy househunter on 10.05.12 at 11:05 pm

electrians work 2250hrs to make what teachers make in 1260 hrs and dont have indexed penisons nor can they retire @ 53

#39 Hawk on 10.05.12 at 11:09 pm

#31 Karla on 10.05.12 at 10:26 pm

====================================

Electricians and plumbers provide services that the marketplace needs and is willing to pay for, else they would go out of business.

The massive army of “public servants” (hint: voter banks) that N. American governments have unscrupulously created, way beyond what the market place would ever have allowed, are what’s spreading the RED INK all over the page.

#40 Mark W on 10.05.12 at 11:12 pm

http://yourmoney.ca/Life_Events/education/Galleries/great_jobs?pos=6

#41 Old Man on 10.05.12 at 11:17 pm

Imao as a huge builder that is worth about $200 million, has a problem with his last condo project, and this family can take a hit. So am driving down the street with his big sign, and see these people that were hired to reduce the price. This is old money, and it matters not, but the buyers are in hiding, so they had to reduce the price.

#42 Roial1 on 10.05.12 at 11:17 pm

Your peers, by and large, will never earn a hundred grand or drive a Boxster.
————————————————–
Unless they go to work in the oil patch.

My best friends’ kids just got back from “Cowtown” and the oil patch.
One is on the riggs ,(has highschool only) and the other is a budding engineer on work experience from U.Vic.

They are BOTH pulling down wages that I could only dream of in my best years.

The first is pulling in $29.60 / hr. with lots of Double time o.t. and the other gets $6000./m after tax. as a student worker.

So, the moral of the story? Go west young man. Go west. (Thank you Horace Greely)
—————————————————————–

Now, back to flytying. Enough of this work.

#43 45north on 10.05.12 at 11:19 pm

Old Man: one can never go back, but simply move forward

one of my most instructive experiences was video-taping minor hockey games. One hundred games. You have to keep the puck in the frame but at the same time, zoom in as much as possible. Lots of times I thought that I had messed up but I still had to do my best. Now I watch NHL hockey on TV with a different eye – even CBC loses the puck now and then. Watch how they recover.

#44 bill on 10.05.12 at 11:21 pm

yup we had it tough….
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/dc333014c5/four-yorkshire-men-by-at-last-the-1948-show-from-greatest-comedy-sketches

#45 Tyrell Pronghorn on 10.05.12 at 11:25 pm

Trouble is people earning six figures thinking that they are in trouble.

How many eye phones, cable channels, and Moore’s suits for men does one really need?

The faux aristocrat has killed the middle class.

#46 CalgaryRocks on 10.05.12 at 11:34 pm

#31 Karla on 10.05.12 at 10:26 pm
I’m that teacher with an MA! I’ve seriously considered work as an electrician. I figure that would be less stress for as much or more pay. My second choice would be plumbing! Wondering why I spent eight years of my adult life earning three university degrees for the income I make now!

Even better HVAC technician. People call you when they’re screwed. No office, no desk no retard bosses. Drive around town in your own Mercedes Sprinter, pretty much make your own schedule. And it won’t be outsourced to India any time soon.

#47 Charles Ponzi on 10.05.12 at 11:36 pm

Agree completely with comment #6 Really on 10.05.12 at 9:11 pm and #3

Please explain why you think that the world is not in the midst of a global depression. I can’t think of a single country or region where the debt crisis is not getting worse.

#48 DonDWest on 10.05.12 at 11:38 pm

“He may have spent far too much of his life chasing a degree which is nebulous in value, now that everyone has one and electricians pull down more than teachers with an MA, but he can probably blame the choppers for that.”

Garth, credentalism has crept in every field, including the electrician. What my father could get with just a 10th grade education; this generation would have to take a two year college degree, along with almost a year of slavery, sorry, I mean “work placement.” The two year college degree isn’t easy street either. You’re expected to be well versed in calculus, physics, algorithms, etc. Of course you’ll never use any it on the job as an electrician. Understand that the college of today only serves as a weeding mechanism for the HR department. It has nothing to do with actually acquiring the skills necessary in order to properly do a job.

Make no mistake, in order for my generation to reach the middle class, it’s expected we have top of the line skills to get an entry level job that I could have probably done in 8th grade if given a chance.

Nobody wants to dare talk about the hidden subject/elephant in the room: What do we do with the people who are not intelligent enough for college? If you “need” college just to become a childhood babysitter, we’re in a lot of trouble. . .

The elitism demanded and expected by the likes of employers towards my generation is enough to make me puke. You dare to call us entitled?! You’re the fools asking for an MBA to sell cars, advanced mathematics to be an electrician, and an MA to work in a call center! So please, spare me the entitlement crap!

#49 GCR1968 on 10.05.12 at 11:41 pm

What a fantastic post! Love the blog, keep up the good work.

#50 Soylent Green is People on 10.05.12 at 11:43 pm

I’m with #3 claudius emperor on 10.05.12 at 9:07 pm

Gt do u ever read any Chris hedges?

P.s. did u walk 5 miles to school uphill

Both ways too?

O
O

#51 Gtaprick on 10.05.12 at 11:49 pm

Garth, I am 26 yrs old and read your blog, since the day I started reading your blog, I have managed to save more money than ever, and grown those savings at a nice steady rate. I do work for the public sector and allegedly there is going to be a pension 30 yrs from now. But just in case there isn’t, I have started a back up plan.
So thanks again for your eye opening, entertaining blog.

P.S. electricians can pull in more dough than teachers, and there is nothing wrong with that ;)

#52 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 10.05.12 at 11:54 pm

If every young Canadian person (and American too) would take one year off to travel and see different cultures, they would see how much of a great future they have.

Though Europe is a fantastic place to live, it is a bit of a stagnant continent for times to come. OK, Food is much better over here…..

But Canada got it. But if you have not seen otherwise , how can you appreciate what you got?

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2011/11/salon-de-la-gastronomie.html

#53 NFN_NLN on 10.05.12 at 11:55 pm

“Most will not lose money, but outlive it. That’s worse.”

I’m with Garth, we need to legalize euthanasia! :)

#54 Carpe Diem on 10.06.12 at 12:01 am

Don’t bet against with the USA …. some wise man has said.

I tend to agree. Check this future estimate in population growth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth

Where will the smart, international people go live in this list? It is not Bangladesh or Nigeria!

The states are in a funk and are making sure they have a low-middle class that’s can manufacture things locally and at the right cost. Meanwhile costs in other countries are increasing.

In a decade, it will make no sense to ship things from oversees.

Then you will see the phoenix rise again.

#55 Riding the Pine on 10.06.12 at 12:02 am

#6 – The only reason people were flocking to the US dollar was because the only other currency worth owning (the Euro) was tanking.

I find it strange that Garth labels anyone with little faith in currencies or the market as “Doomers”. The most basic kindergarten lessons in economics tell anyone with the stomach to listen that it’s a complete mess, and will “correct” with sever consequences.

As for metalheads…rock on. My metals portfolio is up 12-18% since June.

#56 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 10.06.12 at 12:04 am

This blog IS a virgin magnet…which explains SmoKingKong Man’s eternal presence.

PS Hey dude what are you going out on Hallowe-en dressed as..(I am going as a F’n know- it -all blog poster in dire need of a spell checker )

#57 Charles Ponzi on 10.06.12 at 12:05 am

#6 Really

I really agree. I would love Garth to explain how the global credit crisis is being resolved. Kicking the can further down the road is not a long term solution.

#58 Marco from Van on 10.06.12 at 12:13 am

Garth,

When I was a kid, my dad was so poor he had to buy his clothes from army surplus stores. I grew up thinking he was an admiral in the Japanese navy… And I grew up in Italy.

Jokes aside, it was tough. Never forgot, have lived with that in mind. Not under my means, but made sure that if I wanted a quality of life I always set the goal to earn more and I did.

I never ran a credit card more than I could pay it off at the end of the month, never leased a car and the only debt I ever had was a mortgage in the UK.

I had so many peers that called me “boring”… Now that they had to de-leverage for cents to the dollar, I call them with another word starting with “b” – “Broke”!

And it saddens me, we all had the same information, we all made different decisions.

C’est la vie, I guess…

Good on you for keeping it real!

#59 Mixed Bag on 10.06.12 at 12:14 am

What a post, I don’t know where to start. Bravo Garth. I’m sorry about the stolen wedding ring.

(Is this where I chime in that my first jobs were packaging fishing supplies at age 11, cleaning hotel rooms at 14 – yes, in Canada, yes, born in Canada.)

The extended childhood – you nailed that one on the head. I felt that myself as I was living through those years, but a couple of decades ago.

The extended education is a big part. It’s akin to deferring growing up for another four years or so.

But there’s something with the MSM, the music, it’s self-indulgent, solitary, but guarded. They’ll sing about their feelings, but won’t let you in. Compare that with music from, say, the 70’s, and it’s the opposite. That’s painting everything with the same brush, but we can generally pick them out ourselves. I can’t express it, but there is something there. OK, take Free Man in Paris – great song, could it be released today? Although Joni’s complaining about everyone wanting a piece of her, it’s downright upbeat by today’s standards – not enough stress in the song. She states her case, but doesn’t overdo it.

The college party culture that’s been popularized. Contrast with what our impression of university used to be – big difference. Uni has become the extension of the teenage years.

There’s more to the extended childhood phenomenon, but I’m no sociologist, just a half-blind observer.

Before I forget, you really nailed it with the EXPECTATIONS. Blame it on MSM and marketing, and door number 3. Frankly, most of us can’t see ourselves getting caught up in frenzy of it. This is where I start wondering about Smoking Man’s prognostications and The Machine.

And finally, it’s their peers’ expectations of each other. If that’s lowered, well … .

Thanks for letting me write, hopefully someone else will be able to articulate what I could not. Great post.

#60 Realtors are in an all out panic on 10.06.12 at 12:20 am

Canadian Watchdog on 10.05.12 at 10:22 pm Sneak peak at who just popped out of the alleyway and is about to throw recent and pre-construction speculators right under the bus. Vancouver MLS Sample Listings

Now that early buyers (owners) got the word, they’re starting to hit the market to cash out, only difference between them and new sellers is that these folks can afford to sell at a 10-20% loss, new sellers can’t. This will intensify as prices go lower, spooking older owners to hit the market before their equity is wiped out. This is (like all bubbles) the negative feedback loop when a market unwinds.
———————————————————-

I dont’ know where you get all your information but keep it up. Canadian Watchdog you are a realtors worst nightmare. It’s going to be a NASTY CRASH realtors, a NASTY CRASH!!!

#61 TimV on 10.06.12 at 12:21 am

A university degree doesn’t give you the right to magically earn more than someone without a university degree. I’m not sure who told you that it does. However, it sometimes gives someone who would otherwise have worked a min wage hourly job the chance to have a decent salaried job.

Anyhow, housing stats for my little area of the world (East York in Toronto). I’m excluding neighbourhoods with < 5 identified sales. Tony 'hoods are Riverdale and significant parts of The Beaches. An-tony areas aren't shown, since they have fewer identified sales (most listing realtors avoid stating the neighbourhood if the neighbourhood is, say, Crescent Town).

I'm showing the ratio of sold price to estimated municipial tax assessment value, excluding commercial (as much as possible).. Caveats up the wazoo, of course. Not properly adjusting for 2011 vs 2012 tax data, which incorrectly biases my results downwards.

That said, it's reasonably clear the prices have not yet started to fall. In fact, Sept prices look like they may have been the highest of the year so far, comparable-to or exceed May prices, even.

I know prices follow sales, but I'd been expecting a bit more. Not showing days-on-market states or over vs under list stats, but those stats do confirm that the semi-detached market seems to be a noticeably stronger market than the detached market.

______________________ Apri May_ June July Aug_ Sept
Danforth Village_ all_ 1.46 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.38 1.34
East York________ all_ na__ 1.64 1.39 1.44 na__ 1.36
Greenwood-Coxwell all_ 1.53 1.55 1.54 1.69 1.39 1.55
North Riverdale__ all_ 1.54 1.43 1.39 na__ na__ 1.56
South Riverdale__ all_ 1.54 1.65 1.47 1.45 1.45 1.49
The Beaches______ all_ 1.38 1.32 1.38 1.37 1.44 1.36
Woodbine Corridor all_ 1.34 1.39 na__ 1.39 na__ 1.31
all______________ Deta 1.44 1.41 1.42 1.38 1.36 1.42
all______________ Semi 1.47 1.47 1.37 1.46 1.45 1.50
all______________ all_ 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.42 1.38 1.44

You might be able to argue a "transit hypothesis" from this data. The hoods where prices have dropped the most are Beaches and Old East York. These have the fewest transit options. I think Garth once argued in favour of housing with transit maintaining its value better than housing without.

So an open question to any interested in voicing opinions: A home's value is composed of land value plus value for the structure on the land. For example, I figure 20' frontage is worth $250k here, and if I go west a bit, it increases to $300k per 20' (some dependency on north vs south, too). In my case, the home I bought (back in May, the worst month for prices based on the above data!) is thus about 88% land value and 13% structure value. Which will decrease more? Land value or structure value?

My thoughts on the question:

I originally argued land value will decrease more, since there is historical evidence to suggest that land-locked cities experience wider swings in pricing value, and further, the value of the structure is always at least partially anchored by the replacement cost to simply build a new structure — and those replacement costs simply are more (relatively) stable.

However, my wife made a someone cogent argument that structure value will decrease by more. The profits available to developers, and the portion of GDP derived from construction, can both be argued to be in bubble territory. Furthermore, over the mid-term, structures have a higher carrying cost that deflates their value even more (ie, roofs need replacement, etc). So she argues that structure values will decrease by more than land values (obviously financially better for me).

Any thoughts? I'm curious as to what others think. Is the land more overvalued than the structure, or vice-versa?

#62 Humpty Dumpty on 10.06.12 at 12:29 am

Future Indicators….. and old fashion charts….

http://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-housing-bubble-2012-10?op=1

#63 chaser on 10.06.12 at 12:30 am

“The US will recover”

That can be said forever into the future. But will never happen. You have no idea what is taking place.

At least you are now not saying that they are recovering.

#64 NKVD Black Raven on 10.06.12 at 12:34 am

The Tony & Ivan mafia run the GTA. That’s why there’s so much banging & hammering away.

#65 Click Here, its different on 10.06.12 at 12:45 am

#32
They dont.

#28
60 minutes ? Mistyped ? You will run out of tea lights pretty quick … And anyway you will lose your condo way before electricity is cut off. Just miss a payment, turn off your phone and wait. How long before the big guy knocking at the door you think ?

#66 Vancouver_Bear on 10.06.12 at 12:50 am

#12Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 9:46 pm

Garth, please filter the guy out for life. He has the worst case of the disease known as “verbum diarrhea regularis”….
Pardon my Latin it was learned long ago, so may have made a mistake. Let’s keep this blog environmentally friendly and rated at least PG-13.

For entertainment purposes posting a picture from the Center of the HAM universe aka Ditchmond, this is realtor’s worst horror –
http://imageshack.us/f/94/imag0396z.jpg/

Thank you from the Bear and Friends. :-)

#67 tkid on 10.06.12 at 12:55 am

Fort Mac Flatlander, in an emergency …

#68 tkid on 10.06.12 at 12:56 am

… of course most chic condos come equipped with at least one pot or pan.

#69 Jounce on 10.06.12 at 12:56 am

It sounds like the Garthmiester is predicting Greater Depression II, and it not a comedy.

#70 mb on 10.06.12 at 12:59 am

And what about the fiscal cliff of countries in Europe and of course the USA?? Just deflation? I think this issue is bigger than you lend credit and has a number of outcomes that have people such as Eric Sprott on board with “metal heads.” Inflation, forced by central banks is a reality, do you not think QE will have an inflationary effect?

#71 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.06.12 at 1:01 am


“. . . (which makes me wonder what he’s been doing) . . .” — Having fun. We were all young once, and that is a great part / time of life!

“The one thing we all have in common is the present. It’s a much misunderstood time.” — Correct. The Future’s uncertain and the end is always near, so we’ve managed to cover the present and the future simultaneously, ‘coz no one knows what’s gonna happen tomorrow.

“Once you accept that, it’s all good.” — Just as the ‘Greed is Good’ (80s) decade finished / started / winding down again, so too this era shall and must pass away, but what it leads to is another matter.
*
Turner Nation I recall your post about going without food for a week. Some people here have had no food for a few days, but On the other hand . . .; Bonanza See if utilities have the same over here, but Power shortages in three years? Why are they hiking their fees so much? Right to Strike or the right to be busted? Iran Once the evidence becomes overwhelming, it will be easy for them to say the CIA and Mossad were behind their currency debasement; Cdn. Friday links, incl. Gail Van Oxlade’s worst-case retirement scenarios, plus more with Kevin O’Leary as an added bonus; Saving Money by using odd methods; Lowering long distance cell costs; Greek societal collapse like wiemar Germany; Best Buy’s last hope? Finanncial Fukushima Derivatives again; UK Banks can’t access cash again.

Slightly decreasing deficit; Morgan Stanley CEO Tell that to GS and JPM; Gold or Fiscal Cliff? SS 80% of people will be screwed; Billary Population control or depop; 2:03 clip US Prison Sustem. Wonder how much ours costs? Tasty Steak? Not so much; Silver Mining Incl. strange chart; 6:18 audio clip Reality bites; 13:27 audio clip Quantative Erosion.
*
Sheeple This is what happens from listening to govts. and politicos talk too much; Making a Mountain out of Einstein; 15 nuke reactors on NMF line, but they are just coincidental; Bubblewrap Good window insulation for winter; Fracking Volcano This should get the Cascades and the SAF dancing to the music; The Great Cull “The first commandment is: “Maintain humanity under 500 million in perpetual balance with nature.” Since the world population now stands at over seven billion, that means the commandment calls for the elimination of 86% of the world’s population.” (links in); CFR and Venezuela The CFR has apparently chosen a new leader, and this is where the US is headed shortly; Dark Secret Neo-nazis (cons) and criminals are joining the US military; 23 miles above earth View must be pretty good; Clint Eastwood Still looking good after all these years; Kids in Jail; Wooly Mammoth carcass 30K years old; Aston Martin Not a family car, but a nice one.

#72 Tony on 10.06.12 at 1:13 am

Re: #31 Karla on 10.05.12 at 10:26 pm

Electricians actually work, if you have a fear of heights forget it if you can’t take prolonged cold it’s out of the question. The work is still mostly slab but the future of construction in Ontario looks bleak a prolonged downturn.

#73 joe on 10.06.12 at 1:18 am

I wonder how many greater fool groupies Garth gets lol

#74 Dave on 10.06.12 at 1:49 am

Garth have you seen the documentary Inside Job? I watched it tonight. It was quite interesting….

#75 dv8 on 10.06.12 at 2:09 am

Great post ,but can anyone please provide a link where it shows that when practically the whole world is printing money =deflation ,my gas sure cost more this year than last year so does my favorite box of cereal and its smaller . Garth’s butler does his shopping for him and fills his hummer up for him so hes a little confused about the rising cost of the essentials in life , so what if a iphone is cheaper this year than last year i can live without that

#76 Keith in Calgary on 10.06.12 at 2:22 am

You’re right in one respect Garth.

We will never live thru another 2008…………….

Whatever year it all unwinds however, and it will because it has been a FRAUD for the last 4 years, will be far worse than 2008 and remembered as such.

#77 Oceanside on 10.06.12 at 2:26 am

22 with a business degree….Good for him, most at that age don’t know what they want to do. It may not make him any money over the next few years but when he gets into his thirties, that degree will pay off.

#78 Matt on 10.06.12 at 2:28 am

Hold up, because Luke here is 22 and not married, and has made the financially responsible choice of living with his folks through undergrad, he’s living in “extended childhood”? Lost me there. All I see here is that Luke isn’t a fool.

#79 eagle eyes on 10.06.12 at 3:38 am

Seriously Garth, it’s time you sat down and wrote that novel. I know it’s in you, wanting to get out so badly. It will be a New York Times Best Seller! Just please, give me some hints – romance, thriller, mystery?

#80 Devore on 10.06.12 at 3:39 am

Governments, unable to enforce, will regulate less. Entrepeneurs will be respected again.

I don’t know about that. As the latest, YET ANOTHER, meat packing plant fiasco shows us, governments are never shy to regulate anything and everything in sight, even if they have no money to effectively enforce. I do not see this changing. And why would it. Politicians are under ever-increasing pressure to “do something about it”, and to do more than their predecessors in years past. Faced with public sector layoffs, bureaucrats likewise need to look busy to justify their jobs.

I do agree that entrepreneurs will become more respected, if for no other reason than people’s admiration of their ability to generate supplemental income they themselves cannot.


As an aside, although it does not always appear so, I am not at all opposed to social programs and government regulations. As a what you might call “democrat libertarian”, I am in favour of whatever people decide to spend their money on in a democratic fashion. I only insist on one small thing: that it be fully funded. If people choose to spend their own money on something they believe is beneficial to society, they should actually be spending their own money.

Unfunded/underfunded laws, rules and regulations merely serve to cheapen and foster a disregard for the rule of law, and make good governance impossible.

#81 Buy? Curious? on 10.06.12 at 3:41 am

Smoking Man deleted twice in one post? And before midnight? You need help, dude. You’re not offering anything worthwhile when it’s incoherent ramblings of an addict.

Today’s post was actually pretty good. I didn’t realise that Garth was broke and worked his way up. It’s quite impressive. Then you come on here and taint it.

Why don’t you buy yourself a parrot?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEZ417Y1IRk&playnext=1&list=PL8D6F10EEE1D4D1DB&feature=results_video

#82 The Real Jimbo on 10.06.12 at 4:51 am

Here’s the trick to financial prosperity for a young person just graduating from school and entering the work force…

Challenge yourself to pretend that your paycheque is half of what it actually is and, right from day one, live at that level. I did it. Earned $28K/year on my first professional job and lived like I only earned $14K/year, saving half. I made ends meet by renting an old dumpy house with 4 other guys. I learned to enjoy the (almost) free things in life, like nature, outdoor sports, relationships, etc. You don’t have to blow money to enjoy life. You don’t need all the toys.

After 20 years of living this way and investing my savings aggressively, I suddenly found myself to be a millionaire. Then the million became several million and I retired in my mid 40s. I still am as frugal as ever, but my wife, kids, and I are financially untouchable.

#83 Jane24 on 10.06.12 at 4:52 am

My BIL has two MAs, one in Computing and one i Program Design and recently finished re-training as an electrician so he could support his family. I figure all in both sets of qualifications took 13 years so about 30% of his so-called working life.

I hear of lots of kids now who get the university degree that their parents insist upon and then have to go to community college to learn a trade they can actually live on.

#84 John on 10.06.12 at 5:24 am

“I recently stumbled upon your blogs,” says Luke, “and am emailing simply to thank you for writing them. I wish more people my age were interested in the world’s economic future, but my generation sucks, so I feel we are screwed no matter what happens. Luckily, your blog has got me interested in this stuff, and I feel I have a safer and more secure future thanks to it (at least financially). The world needs someone like you to develop a foolproof program to teach youth and 20-somethings about the importance of this stuff and to get us all interested.”
——-

Thanking you for writing about the “world’s economic future”.

Must have missed that content. You did do a re-cap of your non-content on that score. It’s been debunked 100 times, but you’ll still write it. I can even remember earlier this year the comment …”everyone’s forgotten about Greece”.

What’s your content on the macros again? You simply avoid it. What is it you want to teach young people about finance? You don’t have anything to teach them. They’re left out of the ponzi, and you recommend taking fake derivatives-based “equity” and pumping it into an international banking cartel.

Remember the old lady in that ancient Wendy’s commercial complaining about her small burger?

“Where’s the beef”.

As far as the world economy goes, you’re off-topic, under or non-reporting and bordering on irrelevant.

Can someone explain the value of your position to a 22 year old Canadian? Because I don’t see it.

It’s good news to “keep it simple”, move away from blind consumption and create community. But you don’t talk about that. You’re still talking ponzi. Peel back the layers, and that’s the angle.

#85 James in Kitchener ya but on 10.06.12 at 6:04 am

I disagree the future will be slow and stable
Ten years from now we will see technology that we cannot imagine now
Yes we will be far better off but there will be sectors of the economy that will grow to record heights you just need to jump on
While history does not predict the future
How many can remember no computers in the office ?
No cell phones?
How many can remember how to change the oil in a car
The future will be fantastic
But the poor sods reading this blog say ya but
Let me see
Ya but in the 70s we had restructuring of jobs
Ya but in the 80s we had 20% interest rates
Ya but in the 90s Canada was worst than Greece today
Ya but 2000s was dot com bust
Ya but 2008 financial crisis and record debt
2015 ya but the liberals get elected well maybe we will vote for the son of a former PM
Ya but what is the future when I cannot get my head out of the current sand
Ask yourself this who just invested 100 million to build a building in waterloo to research what?????r
If you know the answer then you have seen the future of one sector that will Create millions of jobs
Ya but

#86 Alliston on 10.06.12 at 6:29 am

Long Bonds for deflation, anything else do well?

#87 DJIM on 10.06.12 at 6:48 am

I worked in a brewery for a while as well. Scrubbing out the room-size vats with acid. And there was free beer. Happy times.

#88 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 6:50 am

#7 Old Man on 10.05.12 at 9:13 pm
What Garth said brings tears to my eyes, as he is right, and it reminds me of people talking about the past be it financial; messing up in life; or a romance that went bad. There are many things in my life that wish I could change, but one can never go back, but simply move forward for a better day.
…………………..

Totally agree Old Man.

#89 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 7:00 am

#17 Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 9:53 pm
What is it with my obsesion with jis pathetic bloog

What si it about gartos sole

I love the guy, not a f

What I lovE he middle fingereed Harpo the biggesr tratoir to this beuty land

I’m wasted

And finished. — Garth
…………………..

I hope so.

#90 Deb on 10.06.12 at 7:35 am

There are, and always will be, those who try the best they can to plan for the future and those who choose to remain entirely focused on the present. For people trying to construct a reasonable financial plan for the later stages of life, life expectancy is a valuable, albeit uncertain variable.
What we do know, according to Statistics Canada, is that the average life expectancy at birth was 81.4 years in 2011. A related statistic is the DFLE, or disability-free life expectancy, which rarely receives the attention that it deserves. The DFLE in 2011 was 68.6 years.
Comparing average life expectancy to the DFLE means that most of us will live more than a decade with a considerable mental or physical disability before we pass away. Accordingly, factors such as these really need to be taken into account when it comes to building a realistic financial plan for the future.

#91 Nukester99 on 10.06.12 at 8:04 am

My 29 year old son went to College and has a relatively secure job with excellent pay and benefits plus a defined benefit pension. He is renting and has accumulated a significant down payment. I apologized for all that I had “taught” him regarding house ownership. He is still struck with the idea of paying someone else’s mortgage. I asked him if he was willing to watch his down payment vapourize when RE prices drop even 20%? He finally got what I was saying and I said in a couple of years he can buy the same place for much less money. He can invest the down payment now and contribute the living cost difference into increasing his investment portfolio. He should survive and do fairly well but this advice was hard to give knowing it was I that originally formed the paradigm that is so strong in all the young people today. Just because it “worked” for us does not mean it is right for them. No, I don’t live in a McMansion but a small bungalow, a big lot with a large garden and close to a big enough town that we have everything that we need close by. Thankfully I came to my senses thanks to Garth and others, before he made a costly mistake. Spread the word folks, you may save a loved one from financial disaster and please have a great Thanksgiving.

#92 Francis on 10.06.12 at 8:20 am

We should all have a great Thanksgiving. How do we do that ? By giving thanks of course, for all things , especially for Garth Turner.

#93 Realtor # 1 on 10.06.12 at 8:32 am

29K construction jobs were added last month,
if the bubble was popping it would have been the opposite.

#94 Alliston on 10.06.12 at 8:40 am

Will the new book be ready in time for the gift-giving season?

#95 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.06.12 at 8:58 am

#77 Oceanside on 10.06.12 at 2:26 am

Excuse my ignorance but what is a “business degree”?
Do they learn to rent a store and sell stuff?
Do they learn to file documents?
What’s the curriculum?

#96 Jimbo on 10.06.12 at 9:17 am

To #31 Karla

It’s not about how much you make but what you do with what you have. From the onset of work, you have about 30 years to figure it out.

#97 Rainclouds on 10.06.12 at 9:19 am

#30 CDn Watchdog

Were u in my living room :-) Exactly my scenario. In Lower Mainland, Bailed on the house we owned for 25 yrs. Undercut every listing in the area. They sit ,Im gone in 30 days, probably 50,000 less than I could have got in April but hey, should have taken Garth more seriously when I first started perusing his “pathetic blog”. Now viewing rentals and couldn’t be happier. Thanks Garth!

#98 Steven Rowlandson on 10.06.12 at 9:20 am

Luke and any one not making enough money to buy a house based on a price equal to or less than 6000 man hours is screwed. Based on that minimum wage for living in Canada is at least 50 to 60 bucks an hour. If you are getting paid less than that you really don’t stand a chance.

#99 dv8 on 10.06.12 at 9:28 am

Great post ,but can anyone please provide a link where it shows that when practically the whole world is printing money =deflation ,my gas sure cost more this year than last year so does my favorite box of cereal and its smaller . The rising cost of the essentials in life , so what if a iphone is cheaper this year than last year i can live without that

#100 dv8 on 10.06.12 at 9:33 am

RE: #6 really

I agree 100% Garth can you please please explain how the great land of the USA will be back like pre 2007 is that too much too ask for just tell us how they will do it (that doesnt involve adding more money ie..printing money }

#101 Mr Buyer on 10.06.12 at 9:47 am

#93 Realtor # 1 on 10.06.12 at 8:32 am
29K construction jobs were added last month,
if the bubble was popping it would have been the opposite.
……………………………………………………………….
You just keep telling yourself that

#102 Ret on 10.06.12 at 9:48 am

Debt to income ratio increased to 152% due not so much to mortgage increases but to car loans and impulse buying. Party on Canada!

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Impulse+buys+loans+hike+Canadians+debt/7347302/story.html

Is it time to pull the trigger on interest rates yet or do we max the plastic and go for 155% in the next quarter?

#103 Mr Buyer on 10.06.12 at 9:56 am

#82 The Real Jimbo on 10.06.12 at 4:51 am
After 20 years of living this way and investing my savings aggressively, I suddenly found myself to be a millionaire. Then the million became several million and I retired in my mid 40s. I still am as frugal as ever, but my wife, kids, and I are financially untouchable.
………………………………………………………………
Envy, green with envy. I figured this out way to late in life and can only provide a half assed start for my kids. I still do not care much about myself but I really should have had my crap together 15 years earlier. In my defense I had my head far up my butt from the start and I tried my flat out best to pull it out and I am almost there 10 (more like 20) years out from retirement.

#104 Smoking Man on 10.06.12 at 9:56 am

Buy Curious

Their are several fake smoking men posting here

My last post was in morning

#105 claudius emperor on 10.06.12 at 10:02 am

# 54 Carpa Diem:
–Where will the smart, international people go live in this –list? It is not Bangladesh or Nigeria!

They will ive in Turkey, Brazil, Latin America, Northern Europe – Norway, Scandinavia,… even Russia.
China, Singapore and will have much higher standard than in North America.

One working person with good University degree in Turkey guarantees good life style for a family of 4 + house maid so the wife does not need to clean the house. or do the dishes
Beat that in North America.

#106 };-) aka D.A. on 10.06.12 at 10:03 am

#54 Carpe Diem on 10.06.12 at 12:01 am
Don’t bet against with the USA …. some wise man has said.

I tend to agree. Check this future estimate in population growth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth

Where will the smart, international people go live in this list? It is not Bangladesh or Nigeria!

The states are in a funk and are making sure they have a low-middle class that’s can manufacture things locally and at the right cost. Meanwhile costs in other countries are increasing.

In a decade, it will make no sense to ship things from oversees.

Then you will see the phoenix rise again.

Add to that the consequences of peak oil given that it was the discovery of oil which can be largely attributed to fuelling the from then rapid increase in world population growth. What do you think means for the cost of both nutrition and shelter from now up to and then? What will it do to the cost of fuel and how long until petroleum is no longer a viable energy source. And this pathetic blog preoccupies itself with a measly one to five years on the horizon? If you are young enough you don’t yet have children you’ve got a lot of life with a lot of new challenges ahead of you and if you are old like Garth and me you’ve likely got children’s futures to be concerned with. Oh I’m sure we will adapt and life will go on, probably with a better quality and respect for our environment, but not without a population cull of some description, be it by design or happenstance, sometime well before we near that 10 billion population mark. “It is disingenuous to speak of environmentalism without discussing population control”.

#107 Nodebt on 10.06.12 at 10:07 am

#82 you hit the nail right on the head! That’s one of the best comments I have ever read on this blog!! I totally agree with you guy!!! Let me get my two cents in also!! If a person wants to succeed in life and get ahead financially and be very comfortable there are many opportunities out there! A person will have to go bust his/her balls to find it though! The problem is most people I know don’t want to go work their ass off to get it, they just want it handed to them!! This women my wife knows at my daughters school said she was lucky that we just built a new house in the best part of town! My wife just casually said my husband works quite abit, she asked how much she said lots! 6 days a week usually 12-17 hours a day! Her response my husband hates working his mon-fri 40 hour week I wish he would work more!! I choose to work those hours to get a head in life for my family and myself , yes I will admit it has cost me plenty of time away from my family that I can never get back. For the average person working 40 hours a week will only get u pay cheque to pay cheque and worse, unless u have a very very high paying job. But then again people with high paying jobs are just as broke as people with 12/hr jobs! Like the real jimbo said save as much money as you can and live as cheap as you can!! Hey Luke you sound like a pretty smart guy with a good head on your shoulders, my tip for you would be to go in business for yourself! Why u ask? If you want to make alot of coin and work your ass off its out there to be made!! Myself I have grade 12 education, took all the easiest classes just to graduate, all through high school I skipped classes and screwed around and actually enjoyed myself!! Caused my parents a little bit of grief also, sorry mom and dad if your reading this! I look at all the people I graduated with that got the best marks and were going to college and university and I look at them now, for instance one dude got a free ride to McGill last time I seen him he was working the till at home depot, I nearly fell over ! The guy was an Einstein !! Nothing is wrong working at home depot , I just imagined him being a doctor etc…. Atleast he’s working not sitting on his ass like the majority of people out there. For instance I got a guy working for me 28 years old , he rents 337.50/month 4 of them in a house. He drinks those monster energy drinks like their going out of style, smokes 1-2 packs away, never packs a lunch always eats gas station food while at work and when he goes home he brags how much he spends at Boston pizza! Not a bad worker, he needs to move his ass a little faster! I asked to work Saturday (today) this was on Thursday and he asked me for a raise I said yes, does he deserve it? He does and he doesn’t , next morning he tells me he can’t work Saturday! I go ballistic of course , I just give the little puke a raise and now he screws me over? His excuse I’m sick I don’t feel well and I’m sick right now I said that’s fine keep drinking those energy drinks and smoking your brains out and you can go home and by the way that raise isn’t happening!!! The guy screwed me over!! If he would of worked he would of got time and a half for 8 hours! Like I tried explaining to him before if you work 8 I’ll pay you for 12! His response that sounds really good kinda like free hours! No shit donkey !! Since June 1st this year this guy has taken home 16k clear! You do the math! Forgot he consolidated all his debt and has a payment for 330/month as well, and last week he just got pulled over and got a DUI ! What a donkey! And now he bitches it’s gonna cost him 1k to get it out of the impound after a month and since he was a new driver(he only got his license 3 months ago) so he’s most likely ginna lose it for a year and have to install a breathalyzer machine in his car another 3k he’s complaining about ! I hope it costs him a shitload!!! Oh ya and that 16k is all gone !! Maybe I should buy shares in Boston pizza and monster!! The guys dead broke and still don’t want to work! I think the generation of young people working is pathetic! I would give my left but to have a young guy work for me that wants to get ahead in life!! I’m late for work now good thing I’m the boss, thank jimbo for your post I feel much better now and heading to work to make some more coin! One last thing hey jimbo how do you sleep at night being 1% and knowing your family’s taking care of? Feels good eh!!!!

#108 Mr Buyer on 10.06.12 at 10:13 am

#78 Matt on 10.06.12 at 2:28 am
Hold up, because Luke here is 22 and not married, and has made the financially responsible choice of living with his folks through undergrad, he’s living in “extended childhood”? Lost me there.
…………………………………………………………
That is an old idea as well. Get out on your own and be a real man. It is high time that idea was laid to rest for a few generations. The kids have to get ahead, far ahead. It is part of the Japanese way of life and is becoming a prerequisite. I was15 when I left my mom’s house (I kid you not) and I do not think it gave me an advantage over the real competition. I didn’t finish university until 38 years of age in a part time (repeated false starts and no time for study fashion) as a result of that decision. Sure I had many experiences but if truth be told most of them were the same ones over and over and the insights gained from most of those could have been gleaned from chatting with somebody that had similar experiences. I am thinking that a batten down the hatches all for one one for all approach is going to be much more fruitful over the coming decades rather than the stand on my own two feet with empty pockets borrowing from the get go of my generation. As for higher education, it is generally not a waste and the last thing we need is a society that becomes less technically and scientifically proficient. I think post secondary education is a prerequisite to a strong vibrant society and should be provided at a greatly reduced cost online and likely more effectively online in conjunction with testing centers.

#109 Don't read his post on 10.06.12 at 10:15 am

Garth, do you think it will take 5 or 6 years to reach bottom in Canada? Or will it be a milder and quicker correction?

#110 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 10:26 am

Hey Old Man

DH & I were up since 3 or 4 am and I went back to bed. I thought about your ‘monicker’ and it suddenly clicked. Neil Young.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVC2cszdTao

#111 Mike on 10.06.12 at 10:29 am

One of your former neighbors is a good friend of mine…a bread man by trade, no formal education but one of the brightest financial guys I know. I have 2 daughters, one went the traditional route got a degree, now works at Walmart, the other is apprenticing as an electrician, she has overflowing job offers.

Education is a business just like any other. Too many young folks with degrees, not enough in the trades or entrepeners and yes we parents are to blame.

The next generation will do all right once they figure out it will no longer be handed them on a silver platter

#112 Linda Mulligan on 10.06.12 at 10:30 am

Don’t despair & grab opportunity when it comes – my husband & I bought when the boom busted in early 80’s here in Calgary – got our home with lot for $94,000 with a $10,000 down pymt – paid it off in less than 15 yrs. Still living in same house 28 yrs later & have $ in investments. If prices tank & you have the cash to buy a small place, do it – don’t get sucked into a McMansion as you will have to clean/maintain the place & unless you are a family of much more than 4, waste of money to buy big. Think of the future too – buy a place you can still get around in when you are old so try for a one level with wide doorways just in case a wheelchair is in your future. As for kids, encourage the trades – lots of people bemoaning college/university degrees = no real job but the trades graduates once established are getting the 6 figure incomes! Even in a bust, people NEED their lights to work & the plumbing too…..

#113 Toronto_CA on 10.06.12 at 10:32 am

#82 The Real Jimbo on 10.06.12 at 4:51 am

So you advise young people to live in fake poverty during the best years of life (20s and 30s when one has energy and health) so you can retire in your 40s and continue to live “frugally” the rest of your days?

Or you could save a good chunk of your income from your first job onwards in a diversified portfolio your whole working life, while still enjoying that life and even some of the things that cost money, like vacations abroad or *gasp* modern electronic gadgets and the occasional meal out.

You sound like Scrooge McDuck.

I’d caution anyone away from extremes in either saving OR spending. Live within your means and save for retirement. Telling someone in their early 20s who makes $35k a year to save 50% of their take home pay is akin to sadism.

#114 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 10:33 am

Garth – I think is one of your best posts. Wish I could send it to a few people I know, but I’d be on the ‘sh*t’ list forever.

#115 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 10:36 am

OOPs – Meant to say ‘this’ is one ……………

#116 AprilNewwest on 10.06.12 at 11:06 am

#93 Realtor #1 Your being deceptive – withholding information won’t change what’s happening.

#117 Oceanside on 10.06.12 at 11:14 am

#95 Eagle Bay..An example. pretty well covers it.
Eric Sprott School of Business

Carleton University’s Master of Business Administration (MBA) program is designed for qualified individuals who aspire to develop and enhance their respective ‘analytical skills and specialized applied research skills directed toward the management of technology, productivity and innovation.’ The Program may be taken as a 1-year Research Project option or a Research Thesis option of 16 months in duration; whichever option the student selects, the core of the MBA program will be ‘a set of integrative courses providing in-depth and challenging study.’ However, students will be able to specialize in one of seven areas including Business Information Systems, Finance, International Business, Management, Marketing, Production and Operations, and Research and Development Administration. Carleton University maintains small classes sizes in order to ‘promote teamwork and collaboration; as well as an ‘advanced, cutting-edge computer infrastructure’ which includes ‘an electronic on-line securities trading room, e-business labs, SUN Unix systems and Windows 2000 networks.’

#118 Penny Henny on 10.06.12 at 11:23 am

To Mr Buyer #101.
I think you should change your name to Mr Wanna B. Buyer.
And to my fave Realtors are in an all out panic #60.
It’s going to be a LONG TIME before you’re buying, a LONG TIME!

#119 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 11:25 am

I hope so.

#90 Deb on 10.06.12 at 7:35 am
There are, and always will be, those who try the best they can to plan for the future and those who choose to remain entirely focused on the present. For people trying to construct a reasonable financial plan for the later stages of life, life expectancy is a valuable, albeit uncertain variable.
What we do know, according to Statistics Canada, is that the average life expectancy at birth was 81.4 years in 2011. A related statistic is the DFLE, or disability-free life expectancy, which rarely receives the attention that it deserves. The DFLE in 2011 was 68.6 years.
Comparing average life expectancy to the DFLE means that most of us will live more than a decade with a considerable mental or physical disability before we pass away. Accordingly, factors such as these really need to be taken into account when it comes to building a realistic financial plan for the future.
…………………………………….

So well said Deb.

I’ll be 65 this mo. & have, what I consider, a physical disability. It has totally limited my ability to tend to my gardens that were the love of my life (beside my DH). Oh well, I’ve an appt. with a physio next week. Was to a Chiro & Physio 10 years ago. Maybe this time they can do something for me. I’m trying to be optimistic.

#120 Herb on 10.06.12 at 11:46 am

#90 Deb,

thanks for the reminder.

#121 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 10.06.12 at 11:51 am

Where do people think that because they have a university degree a job is waiting ?

Back in the late 1970’s , approx. 10 % of High School .Grads went onto university. My spouse graduated with a business degree in 1982 , just as the crash happened. Her first job was delivering phone books, then finally found a full time job later.

Universities have long ago lost their way. They have become corporate entities that gouge students for a piece of paper with dubious merit and value. When we were at University, debt was unheard of….a good summer job took care of tuition, books and other expenses.

In the late 1970’s, I made $8/hr…( a good wage back then) cleared $5,000 over the summer and after a year still had about $2,000 left over.

I think the Universities and Gov’ts have joint ventured to keep post secondary students in “suspended animation” for at least 4 years, with the siren call of a master degree .

Overall , university will teach you how to learn,….and de facto flexibility, but don’ t expect much else.

#122 neo on 10.06.12 at 11:54 am

#93Realtor # 1 on 10.06.12 at 8:32 am

29K construction jobs were added last month,
if the bubble was popping it would have been the opposite.

*******************************************

It’s a volatile number. Last month was the exact opposite. Judging by the GTA new home sales in August if that trend continues the trend will be for lower construction jobs this fall/winter.

#123 Me so late on 10.06.12 at 12:04 pm

Europe was going to be fixed for how many years?
There is no fix. The global debt exceeds 10 times the asset base. See “derivitaves” god help us if they can’t keep this bandaged boat together. It’s made of bandages. I love this entertaining blog and pretty accurate at times. We have to flush the toilet sometimes ” called default”. Canada is wining the ugly duckling prize BUT when the poop hits the fan (definitely way over 50% chance) we share see the troubles everywhere. I have the details of the huge bailouts the Canuck banks took from our friendly neighbors at the federal reserve. Hows it going to go in the be when the bond markets puke from all this fake bond buying and we get an interest rate shock with mountains of debt? I’m hedged cause no one knows for sure (real estate paid for, food backup, gold silver, a great paying job and 7 digits cash in the bank) how did I get to this spot as duffus building phone stuff…educate yourself and use common sence. And yes I believe housing here is done.
Garth your way older and way wiser (maybe) but i think its the CYA plan..

#124 Herb on 10.06.12 at 12:04 pm

When I started working life after Grade 13 in 1958, I was hired as a management trainee by one of the three big “Soaps” at $185 a month. High school grads with experience were hired for $225/mt. University grads – with any degree – were offered a starting salary of $325/mt.

Now why do you suppose this major, very well-run and profitable corporation spent all that extra money on university grads, as did every other corporation? Why should things be different to-day?

#125 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.06.12 at 12:05 pm

Has anyone seen BPOE lately?
I’m FULL of gas and need to vent……..

#126 MarcFromOttawa on 10.06.12 at 12:10 pm

#99 DV8

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2011/08/yes-virginia-us-back-in-deflation.html

#127 Picasso on 10.06.12 at 12:11 pm

Gee… I forgot it was Thanks Giving long weekend at home until reading this blog.

#128 Gunboat denier on 10.06.12 at 12:15 pm

48 DDW – I recognized your tone before I even saw that it was your post……

You’re complaining about a 2 year degree? Places like BCIT, NAIT, SAIT give great tech diplomas in Engineering, Nat Resources, Health fields etc. That
means you only need to find ONE summer job. I attended BCIT and though not easy, it was far less intense than
the engineering degree I pursued later.

The tech diplomas will give you the skills to immediately step into decent jobs, and because your skills are technical (and not professional) they can be applied whereever the technology is similar (ie world wide).

But hey, you dont even have to have a two year diploma
for some things. How about working at a fish farm? I
believe that’s a six month course.

#129 house burden on 10.06.12 at 12:26 pm

#102 Ret

Debt to income ratio increased to 152% due not so much to mortgage increases but to car loans and impulse buying. Party on Canada!

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Impulse+buys+loans+hike+Canadians+debt/7347302/story.html

Is it time to pull the trigger on interest rates yet or do we max the plastic and go for 155% in the next quarter?
=================

Don’t forget if housing prices goes down, the Ratio will get worst faster, because there won’t be any gains from house prices or the flipper will be recording a lost. And the Banks no long looks at the house / property as a investment.

Also when the banks re-assess their HELOC’s and loans and the house price/ equity goes down, what happens when the during the re-assessment if they are now under water, or the debt is way above the banks limits.

That’s when reality will set in for some of these people.

#130 Ayn Rand Army on 10.06.12 at 12:46 pm

Governments, unable to enforce, will regulate less. Entrepeneurs will be respected again. The US will recover, Europe stabilize and you’ll never live through another 2008.
——
Wishful thinking. 2008 was nothing, what’s coming will be ultra Greece with guns in the USA. Canada will be in turmoil for a decade at least. Coming soon to a city near you.

Stray Cat Strut

The world is turning further towards tyranny and more government control. Never let a crisis go to waste.

That’s my I’m making plans for Nigel. Exiting stage Asia where the economy is much better and freedom and property rights less threatened. I’m taking my ball an leaving.

Making Plans For Nigel

Look at the constant gov. intervention in foreign purchases of CAD corporations. This is blatant abuse of property rights of the OWNERS of these companies. It’s going to get worse, not better. Control freaks do not change and decide it’s best to relinquish control.

#131 Grantmi on 10.06.12 at 12:52 pm

Like clockwork…. Ozzie (jerkoff) on the main cheerleader radio station CKNW… On Michael Campbell show. Totally not talking about Vancouver, and now talking about Calgary.

Gehh Ozzie. What about your wrong predictions about Hongcouver. Now he’s saying buyers should be happy!!!!! Hahah. What a joke!!!

#132 };-) aka D.A. on 10.06.12 at 1:08 pm

#105claudius emperor on 10.06.12 at 10:02 am
# 54 Carpa Diem:
–Where will the smart, international people go live in this –list? It is not Bangladesh or Nigeria!

They will ive in Turkey, Brazil, Latin America, Northern Europe – Norway, Scandinavia,… even Russia.
China, Singapore and will have much higher standard than in North America.

One working person with good University degree in Turkey guarantees good life style for a family of 4 + house maid so the wife does not need to clean the house. or do the dishes
Beat that in North America.

Maybe things will change such that that is so. Maybe not. Safe to assume though that population will grow and natural resources will be depleted during our time of existence on this planet just as it is safe to assume, like any other species, when numbers exceed the environments natural capacity those numbers will abate in one form or another until equilibrium is once again achieved.

You know where I am going with this, right?

Our environments natural capacity to sustain our species includes habitable and cultivable land upon which to live and grow food. As the population increases it exerts an increasing demand on those limited resources (supply). Supply and demand… so we must logically assume that the increased demand will increase the relative cost of those limited resources.

People, the cost of life’s necessities is not going down any time soon and if and when it does is not something you want to look forward to as when that does happen it will be the consequence of a great cull of the human species by either design or happenstance neither of which will be fun for anyone and disastrous for many.

Think about it – if not for yourself for your children’s sake.

#133 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 1:11 pm

FML listing is back, with a different URL:

http://fmllistings.tumblr.com/

(I had to unsubscribe to TO Solds houses sold emails. Too maddening with the utterly junky semis going for 600k these days in C01, 02, Annex etc.)

#134 TNT on 10.06.12 at 1:32 pm

HAM will soon stand for -Hot Audited Money-

#135 Canadian Watchdog on 10.06.12 at 1:34 pm

This Craigslist ad has 25 Burano condo units for rent. Link That’s 5.5% of the total units built in one listing.

#136 TNT on 10.06.12 at 1:35 pm

@ 104 Smoking Man

Are you sure, could’a been a blackout.

#137 Timbo on 10.06.12 at 1:35 pm

#107 Nodebt

be very careful about your position.

You are generalizing a class warfare card is being played by quoting abstract single instances that paint a brush on a whole group. Look back in history and be very aware that can lead groups blaming other groups for a problem not created by a group but by a policy.

#138 luke8929 on 10.06.12 at 1:39 pm

No worries the federally regulated private pension plans are in good shape and all those boomers have a fall back plan if the house equity nose dives…….ooops.

Many are defined benefit plans not defined contribution which means the plan can’t alter the benefits owed, they have to come up with the money somewhere, new workers raise contributions, I know they must be invested in Bank preferred or equities to be doing so well.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/10/05/most-major-pension-plans-underfunded-supervising-body

The number of plans on OSFI’s watch list – the ones for which it has serious concerns – more than doubled to 115 at the end of March 2012 from 49 a year earlier. Of these 115 troubled plans, 104 are defined-benefit plans.

#139 AACI Okanagan on 10.06.12 at 1:49 pm

Since 2008 I have never seen so many so called experts be wrong about what is coming down the pipeline.. deflation, inflation, hyperinflation, all three have been predicted. The fact is no one knows what is going to happen because we have never been down this path before.

#140 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 2:01 pm

Entrepeneurs? I don’t think so.

On Toronto’s Queen St. West, its stretch between University and Bathurst, I count at least 15 emppty stores
For-lease. Well a new Starbucks is moving into one of them. Some are new renos. Can only imagine the rent demanded.

The coming hydro and property tax increases (and “carbon taxes”) will kill the last of the Mom & Pop stores. Corporate rule.

Notice we are being taken over by the US chains – selling the same dreck but at 30% higher prices up here: Target, JCrew, Nordstroms, and so on.

It’s a giant shell game. Our country as an economic entity no longer exists.
The Feds reduced GST by 2%. Now the Provincial govts are gunning HST (at 2% higher) onto everything.

#141 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 2:07 pm

#52 THE CELIAC HUSBAND

Interesting pictures. But from your recent food entries, most of it looks quite horrible. Putrid, mouldy, stringy, bloody, uncooked, bacteria laden, squishy, damp, tepid. Need I go on. I’ll stay far away from that country.

#142 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 2:13 pm

Pass the Freedom Fries. ;-)

#143 DonDWest on 10.06.12 at 2:20 pm

#128 Gunboat Denier

A lot of people underestimate just how long and how much it costs to acquire a decent trade. I’m growing a little tired of this “just get a trade” attitude because unless you live in Alberta, it’s not necessarily a way to avoid all the pitfalls mentioned with university.

Most trades require a 2-year full time diploma. Truthfully it’s the equivalent of a four year Bachelor when we count the amount of hours. I found these 2 year diplomas very intense and congested – almost impossible to hold a full time job while doing them. In contrast a Bachelor’s degree requires perhaps only 10-20 hours a week to pass – unless you take engineering where it’s 60 hours plus a week.

Then you factor in the worker co-ops you must do before you get your degree as a tradesman. Depending on where you live and what companies are willing to take on co-ops – this could be problematic. I dealt with a lot of friends who at times had to take long commutes just to have the “privilege” of working for someone for free. There were a lot of tears and a lot of broken promises – along with broken households.

Last but certainly not least, people forget you don’t technically become a tradesman right away after you pay your dues for three years. You’re still required to pay your dues for yet another four years as an apprentice. The wage I would earn as an apprentice in most trades is actually less than I make right now with just a High School diploma. Sure, I have the potential to perhaps earn more in my later years, but sacrificing salary in your 30’s for the possibility of earning more in your 40’s may not be a wise course of action, especially when quality of life and investments are considered. After all, if what Garth states is true, and the economy will be deleveraging the next twenty years, economically I would be much better off working my butt off as many hours as possible when I’m still young and squirreling as much cash away as possible in conservative investments.

So when we consider the two to three year diploma (requiring full time hours), the 6 month to 1 year co-op, the 4 year apprenticeship phase, and the number of hours an electrician is required to work; I’ll have to respectfully disagree the electrician has it much better than the teacher. That argument may hold merit for baby boomer electricians who are “grandfathered” in their positions (they have it made in a “time dilation field”), but this isn’t the truth for my generation.

Not to sound defeatist but I’ve done the math. I’m better off just working where I’m at for the next seven years than going into a trade where I’ll be required to go to school, co-op, and apprentice. Even if my wage stagnates, I wouldn’t get a ROI in pursuit of a trade until my early 60’s. Seeing that my job requires the intellectual capacity of a worm, perhaps I’ll have the surplus time/energy to start a little side business and earn even more.

And as much as it pains me to admit it, a certain right wing zealot called “the hammer” has a point that government regulation has a lot to do with the fact it takes 7 years for people to be officially licensed as a plumber or electrician. . .

#144 wxman45 on 10.06.12 at 2:21 pm

Sorry Garth but your rosy predictions on the economy are not going to pan out. You make such a good case for the housing bubble collapse which I am in agreement but then fail to link this collapse to the ensuing economic carnage. Plus we have another 4 years of Obama with 1 trillion dollar deficits..the US dollar is within a year or two of breaking record lows and entering into a crisis. Europe is still a mess. Your muddle through thinking is way too optimistic.
A year from now the economy will be much weaker..housing prices will be down 10-15 percent in most cities..gold will be well over 2000 dollars..the USA will likely be near another crisis…there may also be a brewing war involving Iran, Russia, China and the USA. Sorry but there are too many really smart and accurate people like gerald celente, max keiser, peter grandich, jim rogers, will fleckenstein, karl deninger who are predicting worse things to come. They also have a much better track record than yours.

They also have something to sell, which you’re buying. There will be no American collapse and no war. Get a grip. — Garth

#145 Timbo on 10.06.12 at 2:58 pm

#99 dv8

In general,

Printing and low interest rates are supporting the commodity markets while trying to keep deflation at bay.

This is because fuel and commodities are needed by all and will be the last thing you cut back in your budget, the market for this is stable to an extent.

Prices for discretionary spending drop because business can offset the cost by demanding lower wages when the consumer pulls back spending.
If wages do not drop they will move manufacturing offshore due to GATT’s ability in dropping trade barriers that used to protect these wages. Without these wages more debt is needed to support the buying power of those lost jobs.

#146 };-) aka D.A. on 10.06.12 at 3:02 pm

#144 wxman45 on 10.06.12 at 2:21 pm
Sorry but there are too many really smart and accurate people like gerald celente, max keiser, peter grandich, jim rogers, will fleckenstein, karl deninger who are predicting worse things to come. They also have a much better track record than yours.

They also have something to sell, which you’re buying. There will be no American collapse and no war. Get a grip. — Garth

We all have something to sell – every one of us. To sell is to impart one’s enthusiasm for something upon another in such a manner as to influence them too to become so enthusiastic about it that they are motivated to make sacrifices to attain it. Aren’t we all doing that to one degree or another? I know I do it with my wife every single day just as she does me. sometimes we agree, sometimes not. If we don’t agree it does not get done.

This blog sells, the comments posted sell… everything is selling. We cannot achieve that which we seek in life alone, we need co-operation from others as they do us. A good sale is one in which both parties move forward – a win/win. Anything less is counterproductive in the long run.

A broken watch is right twice a day but it cannot be relied upon to get you to your next appointment. What I am saying is no one knows the future and to believe anyone who purports to is nothing short of speculation. You are better off buying a lottery ticket.

Deal with this day – what is real. Don’t waste this day speculating on the future. What you do today will invariably impact your future far, far more than even the most intelligent man’s foretelling of the future might.

#147 };-) aka D.A. on 10.06.12 at 3:11 pm

Simply what I was saying is; there are no guarantees in life. If you aren’t making mistakes you aren’t trying hard enough. Don’t waste your life afraid to venture out of your cave. You will regret not having done that which you thought about doing but didn’t more than that which you did but maybe shouldn’t have.

#148 Nodebt on 10.06.12 at 3:16 pm

#137 Timbo , English please! All I know is that if you go out there and bust your ass you will find a good job! Most people are to lazy!!!! To go find that job!!! There there if you go look!! They won’t land On your lap like most people expect! Maybe where I’m from it’s just different here! And if you save your Hard earned money you will get ahead!! But that takes discipline, but then again most people want that big screen tv!! Just put it on the visa and pay for it over the next 10 years!! I was taught by my parents to go out there and work hard and save it all because who knows when that rainy day is coming!! Hey Garth happy thanks giving to you and dorthy and family!! When you break the wishbone what are you gonna wish for? I’ll tell you my wish, that the government makes it mandatory for grades 8-12 take a class each year on learning about money management and how to be responsible with your money!! I love pumpkin pie!!!

#149 Stickler on 10.06.12 at 3:26 pm

…try Stagflation

A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment – a time of stagnation – accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation.

Prices rise for things you need (oil, food), and fall for things that you don’t (TVs, electronics), and things that require lots of consumer credit (Cars, houses).

enjoy

#150 TNT on 10.06.12 at 3:35 pm

Re a recent US of A Census.

The Real median income has returned to 1969 levels.

Great blog, but still loving my returns on gold.
Up 145% in 5 yrs, how can you dish that?

Bets still on re the markets taking a BIG hit between now and the end of January, will even go as far to predict at least 30%.
If i’m wrong you pick the restaurant, perhaps one that serves some well done bear.

#151 TNT on 10.06.12 at 3:39 pm

Do you consider a war having to drop bombs in the back seat of your hummer, how about in the gas tank.

There is a war and its gonna get bigger.

#152 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.06.12 at 3:49 pm

#117 Oceanside on 10.06.12 at 11:14 am

That’s what I thought. Cab drivers, waiters, truck drivers, etc…
But a business degree…

#153 TNT on 10.06.12 at 3:57 pm

@ Nodebt.

Great wish, we have friends who sit down with the kids and have them write the amount’s on the monthly checks, they follow up with pop corn a movie and allowances.

Good times.

They say its been a reality check for the kids and that they are noticeably gaining an appreciation for the value of money by seeing how much it costs to live.

#154 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.06.12 at 4:02 pm

141 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 2:07 pm
#52 THE CELIAC HUSBAND

“Interesting pictures. But from your recent food entries, most of it looks quite horrible. Putrid, mouldy, stringy, bloody, uncooked, bacteria laden, squishy, damp, tepid. Need I go on. I’ll stay far away from that country.”

_______________

Sounds like a nice Canadian greasy spoon joint.
I guess you’re not a cook. Nothing that I would eat anyway.

#155 Hawk on 10.06.12 at 4:05 pm

#140 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 2:01 pm

==============================

Good post I agree and would like to add my opinion.

Entrepreneurship exists in societies that have freedom (from confiscatory levels of taxation) and low regulation.

Societies that punish everything that is useful and productive and are fixated with the diseases of envy and entitlement are not conducive to entrepreneurship and small business.

The “Marxist” worldview (or socialism if one prefers) is failing the western world in the vast majority of nations and we can see everyday it’s negative effects, but now that politicians have expanded big governments, it will be very hard to roll them back.

N. America needs to return to the free market worldview and crush government interference which is what made it super successful to begin with, …………but God knows if the people have it in them anymore.

#156 Eaglebay - Parksville on 10.06.12 at 4:06 pm

#143 DonDWest on 10.06.12 at 2:20 pm

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Check your info again.
And, you made it to grade 12?

#157 Timbo on 10.06.12 at 4:11 pm

#148 Nodebt

those people? Damn we should build camps for ‘those people’ and surround them with walls full of exclamation points. Welcome to the past ;)

#158 DON on 10.06.12 at 4:23 pm

#118 Penny Henny on 10.06.12 at 11:23 am

To Mr Buyer #101.
I think you should change your name to Mr Wanna B. Buyer.
And to my fave Realtors are in an all out panic #60.
It’s going to be a LONG TIME before you’re buying, a LONG TIME

******
Penny you are wright about one thing…the smart ones will wait to buy, but it takes more time to roll a stone up a hill then it takes for that stone to roll down a hill by itself. I will wait till this market bottoms out and then buy. It’s called discipline and knowledge. BUT it will happen nonetheless. So I am not exactly sure what your point is. It took the US 6 years. But “it’s different here” we went far beyond the US…Meaning there is more force behind the stone on the way down. And as Garth has said time and time again, different regions will correct to different degrees and on different schedules.

Penny it will happen and sooner than later. Prices are falling in every single market on Vancouver Island and most are retirement communities so lack of jobs are not a factor.

#159 John on 10.06.12 at 4:30 pm

Xman45:

“A year from now the economy will be much weaker..housing prices will be down 10-15 percent in most cities..gold will be well over 2000 dollars..the USA will likely be near another crisis…there may also be a brewing war involving Iran, Russia, China and the USA. Sorry but there are too many really smart and accurate people like gerald celente, max keiser, peter grandich, jim rogers, will fleckenstein, karl deninger who are predicting worse things to come. They also have a much better track record than yours.

They also have something to sell, which you’re buying. There will be no American collapse and no war. Get a grip. — Garth”
———

This form of debate is your fault X-man45. You name-dropped. An opponent who doesn’t want ( or can’t) debate you on the actual issues meets you on your
“cop out”. He’ll go for your names and show little to no interest in the real debate.

In this case the trickery was to go for “sell job”, point to the “who” and not the “what”. It’s old political jousting. It’s called bait and switch. A classic.

Post your OWN understanding of the issues, not “Gerald Celente” or “Alex Jones”. These ( IMO) are not really trustworthy people , and I’d rather have our current system over anything they might be selling. They make out “sheeple” to be victims, and paint a “golden past” that never was. Jones is full-on certified.

Post your own ideas and back them up with facts and ponzi operators et al fold up like a house of cards. Go with the actual debate…everyone wins. A ponzi operator will NOT debate you. Try it…aint that odd? Why is that? Odd eh?

The comeback of “get a grip” would be pretty tough to follow with so much slipperiness out there. As evidenced in the comment itself. I call BS. Again.

#160 happy renter on 10.06.12 at 4:33 pm

Why must Canadians suffer for houseing so much.My girlfriend bought a new house in Langford by Victoria for $414.000 for a 1350sqft house on a 2800sqft lot.In a Atlanta suburb you can buy the same style house but bigger and three times the lot for $70000.6 houses for 1.Americans are so lucky compared us.Check it out ,Top rental Returns in Atlanta.Canadians only beniefit is cheap bad health care and higher taxes.

#161 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 4:35 pm

#48 DonDWest on 10.05.12 at 11:38 pm

Ah poor DonDWest – get a life and stop feeling sorry for yourself.

#162 cynically on 10.06.12 at 4:36 pm

To #63 – Go chase yourself – you are the one who has no idea what is taking place in the US and more importantly will take place. They will recover because they have a drive and determination (you probably call it greed) built into their character, a drive to succeed – something lacking here as cowed Canadians.

#163 DonDWest on 10.06.12 at 4:48 pm

#156Eaglebay – Parksville

Not wrong, most trades require a two year diploma followed by a 4 year apprenticeship. Look it up.

#164 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.06.12 at 4:55 pm

D.A. ,

How often does your shaming schtick work on folks?

Old school stuff like this works right? Success rate is probably about 33%?

I once knew a guy who worked for a boutique wealth manager who used shaming, and a touch of intimidation, to great effect.

#165 TNT on 10.06.12 at 5:19 pm

@cynically-161

I do know whats taking place in the States, i’ve been there many times and have friends all over.

-Recover like in Detroit where the police have declared it an enter at your own risk city.

-Or recover in the mind set of never have there been more guns sold month over month.

-Or recover in the realization that suicide deaths in the
States surpasses car accidents.

-Or recover because there have never been more people on food stamps.

-Or recover from the true unemployment figures of 22%+

-Or recover from a privatized banking system, the Fed which is manipulating the markets and driving the US Dollar index into the ground. 401k what 401k?

-Not sure what your definition of recovery entails and does it include life support and many fatalities?

I assume you like wool because you have a flock of it draped over you.

Try and explain it to the families that have been decimated.

People have to realize that just because they aren’t bleeding they are still victims.

Bye Bye miss America pie…

#166 Tony on 10.06.12 at 5:21 pm

Re: #162 cynically on 10.06.12 at 4:36 pm

Americans have day to day mentality that’s how they got into the mess they’re in. They can’t even admit a problem until it becomes a catastrophe.

#167 live within your means on 10.06.12 at 5:40 pm

My DH had a hard time when he moved here to be with me. Spent 6 mos. as an ESL student then a neighbour hired him to work as a labourer at Dalhousie (repairs to student dorms, etc. – where the gals were half naked – LOL). My DH had a 4 yr tech degree from France & had worked all over Europe and parts of Africa. Plus he worked for several years in MTL. None of his experience was recognized in NS. I rememfber him helping out mechanical engineering students from Dal. He spent a year at NSIT in robotics & then another year at an IT institute – I convinced him to do it. The Institute didn’t think DH’s English would pass the muster, but it did. He’s been a Tech supervisor for many years with the school board & spends his spare time (at home) writing programs to automate much of what has to be done at the beginning of the school year. It pisses me off at times.

#168 truth hammer on 10.06.12 at 5:45 pm

The world is not over…..perhaps we’re on the road towards a recovery of our senses……with lower expectations generally we may be able to finally compose ourselves and stare down those in our society whose gluttony beggars us all.

When average wages come down as anticapated….people will see that the bloated wallowing of the civil service is no longer ‘politically correct’. Lets face it…….they don’t do the work that is commensurate with such compensation as they receive. The elite unions will be viewd by the young workers as parasites and pond scum……it’s inevitable.

High expectations in the face of low real returns is also having collateral effects that even the RCMP view as unrecoverable. people nned more from their investments…..and higher inflation/ZIRP rates are robbing savers of their digmity….driving many unwary into the arms of the frauds and hustlers who disguise themselves as ‘financial advisors……lessons learned in this tale of woe.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Grocery+store+cashier+ends+with+lousy+investments/7354887/story.html

#169 Canadian Watchdog on 10.06.12 at 5:53 pm

Janion would deliver $100,000 micro-condos to Vancouver Link

The UN’s Agenda 21 must prevail. Keep buying those shoebox condos Vancouver and be ready to fork over the rest of your income when the cost of living rises. It’s good for you and the entire community according to them.

I’ve actually calculated that at the current shrinkage rate, condos will be the size of jail cells in approximately 45 years.

#170 TNT on 10.06.12 at 5:58 pm

Recommended Thanksgiving dinner.

Bulls head soup with the house wine.

Bon Appetit.

#171 brainsail on 10.06.12 at 6:17 pm

The really good news we got from Canada this week is that they found the missing maple syrup.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/04/fire-up-the-griddle-stolen-syrup-recovered/?hpt=hp_t2

#172 TurnerNation on 10.06.12 at 6:31 pm

One more for the road: How’s it going in China?

A TSX-listed Chinese building company is delaying its financials and just suspended the interest payments on its debentures…

http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/overview/t.boy

Boyuan Announces Default Due to Late Annual Filing
10/4/2012 10:11:00 PM – Canada NewsWire
Boyuan Provides Disclosure Update
10/2/2012 10:57:00 PM – Canada NewsWire
Boyuan Postpones Fourth Quarter and Year-end Financial Results Conference Call
9/27/2012 8:18:00 AM – Canada NewsWire
Boyuan Announces Delay in Filing Annual Financial Statements

#173 John on 10.06.12 at 6:48 pm

Dv8 wrote:

RE: #6 really

“I agree 100% Garth can you please please explain how the great land of the USA will be back like pre 2007 is that too much too ask for just tell us how they will do it (that doesnt involve adding more money ie..printing money }”

————

Here’s a good link that should help to get started. Garth is certainly right about deflation.

Take a look at the arrows for each force: inflationary and deflationary. Then use google to find out about each one. If not, you’ll unnecessarily be easily snowed by “experts”.

The US will not “recover” in my opinion. It will transform into something much better.

http://www.247bull.com/the-deflationary-forces-are-winning-expect-more-money-printing-soon/

#174 tonysilverdick on 10.06.12 at 6:49 pm

I’ll stick to to the” History repeats itself ” thing, as in all currency ends in hyperinflation if anyone can show me where a currency ended in hyperdeflation I will congratulate you :}

#175 Ret on 10.06.12 at 6:50 pm

Seven years learning a trade? Years in university and a mountain of student loans? Are you people nuts?

Lots of Hamilton fireman made the Ontario $100,000 Salary Disclosure list. Seven, twenty four hour shifts a month. You can sleep at work to get rested for your other jobs after work. Start living the dream!

Lots of firemen work second jobs at the beer or liquor store or, according to my sources on the inside at the Maplehurst Gray Bar Hilton, fill in as jail guards covering absences for regular staff.

#176 jess on 10.06.12 at 6:52 pm

http://www.unafei.or.jp/english/pdf/RS_No67/No67_20VE_Pontell.pdf

“Economic conditions of the 1970s substantially undermined the health of the S&L industry and
contributed to the dismantling of the traditional boundaries within which they had operated for decades.
Perhaps most important, high interest rates and slow growth squeezed the industry at both ends. Locked
into low-interest mortgages from previous eras, prohibited by regulation from paying more than 5.5 percent interest on new deposits, and with inflation reaching 13.3 percent by 1979, the industry suffered steep losses. As inflation outpaced the small return on their deposits, thrifts found it increasingly difficult to attract new funds.
Along with these economic forces a new ideological era had begun. Though policymakers had been
considering further loosening the restraints on savings and loans since the early 1970s, it was not until the
deregulatory fervour of the Reagan administration years that this approach gained widespread support as a “solution” to the thrift crisis. Policymakers dismantled most of the regulatory infrastructure that had held the industry together for over 40 years. The deregulators were convinced that the free enterprise system worked best when left alone, unhampered by perhaps well-meaning but ultimately counterproductive
government regulations. In 1980 the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act
phased out restrictions on interest rates paid by savings and loans. At the same time, in a move that seemed to contradict a free market ideology, the law increased FSLIC deposit insurance (and correspondingly, the
government’s risk) from a maximum of $40,000 to $100,000 per individual account.
In 1982, the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act accelerated the phase out on interest rate
ceilings initiated in 1980. More importantly, however, it expanded the investment powers of thrifts,
authorizing them to make consumer loans up to a total of 30 percent of their assets; make commercial,
corporate, or business loans; and invest in non-residential real estate worth up to 40 percent of their assets.
The new law also allowed for 100 percent financing, which required no down payment from the borrower.
Federal regulators also dropped the requirement that thrifts have at least 400 stockholders, which allowed
for a single entrepreneur to own and operate a federally insured savings and loan.

Federal and state governments – whose state-chartered thrifts’ deposits were, by and large, insured by federal funds – had created an industry environment that encouraged lawbreaking. Martin Mayer, former
member of the President’s Commission on Housing under the Reagan administration, describes these
deregulatory years:

Mayer, Martin, The Greatest-Ever Bank Robbery: The Collapse of the Savings and Loan Industry. New York: Charles
Scribner’s Sons, 1990.

#177 Gunboat denier on 10.06.12 at 6:54 pm

143 DDW – You’re stuck on trades. I’m talking technician.
Have a look here:

http://www.bcit.ca/path/engineering/programs/

They also offer Health sciences, business etc. Again, many are two year programs with real job prospects.

Or you could try this:

http://www.marineharvestcanada.com/careers_intro.php

None of these are of such duration or cost that you are
committed to that career for life.

#178 Gunboat denier on 10.06.12 at 7:00 pm

Don – 25 weeks!

http://www.excelcareercollege.com/aqua_tech.html

#179 EIT on 10.06.12 at 7:07 pm

People are brainwashed. Very brainwashed. It would be sad if it wasn’t the reason I’m getting rich.

#180 Bill Gable on 10.06.12 at 7:27 pm

Great post, Mr. Turner.

One other footnote – you will not believe how fast this thing called ‘life’ goes by.

I also heavily relate to your work experience, Mr. Turner. I was told on my 18th bithday that my new life was starting and I was out – had two days to find a place. Starved. A Big Mac was a big deal.

I worked front end at a gas station all night and went to University during the day.

I regret none of it. Learned how to WORK. Too many people have their hand out.

Don’t believe me? Watch what happens in France.

#181 };-) aka D.A. on 10.06.12 at 7:48 pm

#164Dontcallmeshirley on 10.06.12 at 4:55 pm
D.A. ,

How often does your shaming schtick work on folks?

Old school stuff like this works right? Success rate is probably about 33%?

I once knew a guy who worked for a boutique wealth manager who used shaming, and a touch of intimidation, to great effect.

You deserve a reply, I just can’t find the words. That being said; I think those of my words which stirred within you the motivation to comment in the first place are the ones which are most likely to have the best effect as clearly they do appear to have made you think. So in answer to your question, as unintentional as my ‘shaming shtick’ was, apparently it does work. To what degree? Well I must attest, were it a purposeful ploy to begin with – which it was not, that I would consider just one convert in a field of seven billion a success. And that is a win/win for both me and for you. };-)

#182 dosouth on 10.06.12 at 8:00 pm

Garth, I liked it better when comments were more succinct and to the point. Too many whiners and prophesying wanting to be right, or sound intelligent (not). Please get to the point all you blabbers and stop wasting Garth and our time….pleeaasee!

#183 Daisy Mae on 10.06.12 at 8:04 pm

#125 Herb: “When I started working life after Grade 13 in 1958…”

****************

Grade 13. Remember it well. The equivalent of first year of university. But it didn’t survive. Was eliminated a couple of years later….nice to reminisce, though.

#184 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.06.12 at 8:07 pm

#141 TurnerNation — Disagree. Having been to France for three weeks in March 1996, driving from Calais down thru the west side (Le Mans, Versailles, Toulouse and avoiding Paris completely), then driving back up on the eastern side, I can quite categorically say that French food is gorgeous. The price is what is revolting!

#143 DonDWest — “A lot of people underestimate just how long and how much it costs to acquire a decent trade.” — True. I took a five year apprenticeship in printing which was worth its weight in gold. Supported my wife and kids for 30+ years until I had the stroke in Sept. 2000, which was my retirement date. Although most composing rooms have long since finished, due to technological advances, I wouldn’t change a thing.

#149 Stickler — “…try Stagflation” — Bang on, and #169 Canadian Watchdog — “The UN’s Agenda 21 must prevail.” — Link the two together, and add #165 TNT — Good post.

#176 jess — “Economic conditions of the 1970s substantially undermined the health of the S&L industry . . .” — Didn’t the S&L scandals happen in the ’80s? If so, that’s a decade-long lag between what was written and what actually happened. Gives an idea of what is coming our way.

#185 Blacksheep on 10.06.12 at 8:10 pm

DA #106,

“Add to that the consequences of peak oil given that it was the discovery of oil which can be largely attributed to fuelling the from then rapid increase in world population growth. What do you think means for the cost of both nutrition and shelter from now up to and then? What will it do to the cost of fuel and how long until petroleum is no longer a viable energy source. And this pathetic blog preoccupies itself with a measly one to five years on the horizon? If you are young enough you don’t yet have children you’ve got a lot of life with a lot of new challenges ahead of you and if you are old like Garth and me you’ve likely got children’s futures to be concerned with. Oh I’m sure we will adapt and life will go on, probably with a better quality and respect for our environment, but not without a population cull of some description, be it by design or happenstance, sometime well before we near that 10 billion population mark. “It is disingenuous to speak of environmentalism without discussing population control”.
————————————————————
Much like the reality behind Central Banking and the lack of true sovereign control, this is a discussion many would rather not have. Peak ‘cheap’ oil and global labour rate equalization will have significant consequences for western countries. Change IS here, we’ve only yet discover is it’s severity. Those whom anticipated the now occurring RE correction, made a contrarian play with the most expensive possession they’ll ever own, in an attempt to game the ‘system’. They at some point became critical thinkers and questioned the message our parents, teachers, politicians and MSM told them. The work to consume mantra is loosing its grip on society. The Cattle are seeing the fences.

By the way DA, good to have discussion beyond the tired RE argument.
We’ve all made our bets, lets watch events play, out as they will.

take care
Blacksheep

#186 Daisy Mae on 10.06.12 at 8:16 pm

“They also have something to sell, which you’re buying. There will be no American collapse and no war. Get a grip. — Garth”

*****************

Wow! Very cool retort! LOL

#187 Daisy Mae on 10.06.12 at 8:22 pm

#148 NoDebt: “I’ll tell you my wish, that the government makes it mandatory for grades 8-12 take a class each year on learning about money management and how to be responsible with your money!!”

******************

Excellent idea. Didn’t we call it ‘Effective Living’ in high school?

#188 Victoria on 10.06.12 at 8:34 pm

I was speaking with a friend the other day – they sold their house in Leaside at a great time and are renting. They almost bought another house. NO NO NO. Anyway, we are discussing household incomes in Toronto. Not Ajex but Rosedale, Leaside, Forest Hill etc.

Does anyone know where I can get the stats on household incomes in Toronto areas? I could not seem to find them on the Stats Canada website.

Many thanks.

#189 Mark W on 10.06.12 at 8:55 pm

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rds/rnr/3320745695.html

And let’s not forget leaking condos in Greater Vancouver.

#190 jess on 10.06.12 at 9:02 pm

presidential want a be ..reminds me of athetes that cheat

By Tim Dickinson
October 4, 2012 9:32 AM ET

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-first-debate-mitt-romneys-five-biggest-lies-20121004#ixzz28ZR4ZElA

#191 Spiltbongwater on 10.06.12 at 9:37 pm

There will be a war, but not the traditional kind. I think in the next 20 years, the Chinese will poison cases of Chef Boy R Dee, and our governments here will let our hungry citizens die by failing to warn them in a timely manner. The Chinese have already succeded in killing our pets, by poisoning dog and cat food. That was a test for what comes next.

#192 Stickler on 10.06.12 at 9:54 pm

– watch as property taxes triple in Chicago -> coming to a city near you in the future (must maintain those lofty pensions)
– buy Canada savings bonds offering 0.5% That will save you.

#193 B P O E Sales Way Down on 10.06.12 at 10:01 pm

Debt to income ratio increased to 152% due not so much to mortgage increases but to car loans and impulse buying. Party on Canada!

Look up MA- Mastercard stock and Visa they are making recoed profits stocks have doubled in the past year, people living off plastic and Helocs

No more room for buying real estate

#194 Canadian Watchdog on 10.06.12 at 10:09 pm

#176 jess

Good link. I have to repost this.

Canadian banks don’t need too-big-to-fail reserves

“Canadian banks argue that higher reserve requirements would stifle growth and are unnecessary.”

“OSFI has rightly argued that this country should not be forced to implement someone else’s one-size-fits-all rules.”

Who’s calling the shots at OSFI?

Maurice Dorman
Senior Supervisor at OSFI
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Team Lead, Fixed Income Operations at Bank of Montreal Senior Manager, Treasury & Investments at Capital & Credit Merchant Bank

David Maxwell
Senior Capital Markets Analyst at OSFI
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Consulting Analyst at TD Securities

Winnie LoBaker
Senior Manager at OSFI
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Head of Collection Analytics at HSBC Financial

Renée Chen
CA, CFA, Director at OSFI
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Manager, Derivative Reporting at RBC

Dave Oakden
Managing Director at OSFI
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Senior Vice President at Zurich Canada

Tom Belyk
Manager OSFI
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Director Canadian Commercial Credit at Scotiabank

Leslaw Skoczylas*
Senior Supervisor at Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions of Canada
LinkedIn Page
Past Jobs: Research Analyst at Bank for International Settlements

And all these brilliant people just realized Canada’s pension ponzi scheme is going to blow up. Some regulators we have. BTW, Canadian pension funds hold the bulk of Canadian Mortgage Backed Securities.

This should work out well.

#195 house burden on 10.06.12 at 10:12 pm

#188 Victoria on 10.06.12 at 8:34 pm

=============

You can get a rough estimate from the School’s Fraser Institute Report.

Find the school which is located in that area and look it up on the report. I will give you a rough Idea of the household average household income in that area

#196 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.06.12 at 10:14 pm

D.A. ,

I’ve never met a salesperson who did the close part of the deal using “nice”. I doubt such a salesperson would close much?

What you’re trying here, on this blog, is closing without the hook and build-up.

In person, your routine, with cadence, thoughtful pauses, change in expression, probably does ok.

Here, in written form, you’re rushing too fast to the close.

#197 Bottoms_Up on 10.06.12 at 10:16 pm

#148 Nodebt on 10.06.12 at 3:16 pm
——————————————-
Your wish WAS granted as of Sept. 2011. Financial literacy is now taught in Ontario schools from grades 4-12:

http://www.edu.gov.on.ca/eng/surveyLiteracy.html

#198 jess on 10.06.12 at 10:18 pm

Guest: Friedman, Milton
Theme: Public Affairs

Living Within Our Means (1975)
http://archive.org/details/openmind_ep494

=========

Do “we write as we believe”

14th century A Distant Mirror.

http://archive.org/details/openmind_ep1405

#199 Bottoms_Up on 10.06.12 at 10:26 pm

#95 Eaglebay – Parksville on 10.06.12 at 8:58 am
—————————————————
I think things like Econ, Finance, Accounting, Managing, Trading, those types of courses.

#200 Bottoms_Up on 10.06.12 at 10:28 pm

#90 Deb on 10.06.12 at 7:35 am
—————————————-
This is the first time I’ve heard about DFLE, thank you for posting about it, it is a very important and real issue.

#201 earlybird on 10.06.12 at 10:58 pm

Wow…great post!! Never too young or too old to learn…or relearn!

#202 Julia on 10.06.12 at 11:18 pm

#191 Spiltbongwater on 10.06.12 at 9:37 pm
My 6-year-old cat died that way. One day she was healthy and the next she had terminal kidney failure.

#203 Gunboat denier on 10.06.12 at 11:20 pm

188 Victoria – I found this

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-591/index.cfm?Lang=E

Its 2006 census. The 2011 census doesnt show the
income data (yet?)

#204 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.06.12 at 11:29 pm


Oct. Surprise Diesel reached US$6 / gal., and 6:03 clip The US govt. is doing to Iran what the Germans did to the Brits. in WW2 — de-stabilizing their currency plus Iran No HI? I doubt that, as the CIA and Mossad are working there, so there ain’t much good coming from it; High flying Food Prices leading to civil unrest, and Costa Mesa Mayor says shutting soup kitchens would improve the city’s looks; BDI Implodes, and 10:47 clip Bond market bubble bursting in a few months; World’s Wealthiest gaining, while middle class losing; Venice separation from Italy, Quebec separates from Canada and The Left Coast goes bananas; 8:52 clip Sustainable Man vs. the US Fed.
*
2:29 clip Palestine 1896. “Old film about Palestine goes back to 1896. This contradicts Zionist propagandists who always trying to sell new Israel by saying : ‘ It was a land without people for people without land ‘. The film shows that there were Palestinians there in 1896.” wrh.com; Venezuela The CFR, Chavez or DC; 14:52 clip starring Billary and Obomba, covering Syria’s pipelines; FEMA Bill HR6566 “This may shed some light on DHS 1.7billion Rounds of Ammunition purchased recently.”; Spain Cops beating everyone up; Vanity to a T; Coongo killing bug in UK; Shockingly Electrical; Evolution Not sure of this. I’ll check back in a thousand years; Two US Carriers in west Pacific. There are four in the MEast, so they must be getting ready for something; Cancer Interesting POV; Drink Coffee It’s good for us; Putin 20% of women want to marry him; 9:49 clip Will America be used to destroy America from within for the NWO? 9-11 Perpetrators running Romney’s campaign.

#205 Mr Buyer on 10.06.12 at 11:35 pm

#162cynically on 10.06.12 at 4:36 pm
To #63 – Go chase yourself – you are the one who has no idea what is taking place in the US and more importantly will take place. They will recover because they have a drive and determination (you probably call it greed) built into their character, a drive to succeed – something lacking here as cowed Canadians.
……………………………………………………………………..
that is a great deal of hot air. America will be fine but not because America is better than Canada. The Japanese maintained the worlds second and now third largest economy (by selling to America mind you) in parallel to a massive collapse in real estate. Believe it or not Real estate and a workable economy are not inextricably linked.

#206 Canadian Watchdog on 10.07.12 at 12:00 am

#197 Bottoms_Up

“Your wish WAS granted as of Sept. 2011. Financial literacy is now taught in Ontario schools from grades 4-12”

I’ll look into this. It’s already looking grayish with context like this for Grade 4 students:

“Such expectations develop the skills and knowledge required for
students to become critical consumers.”

#207 Mithan on 10.07.12 at 12:08 am

Good for Luke. Provided he isn’t a dead beat and contributes, living at home and saving money will put him further ahead. Just hope he isn’t stupid enough to piss it away on a new car….

#208 new canadian on 10.07.12 at 12:11 am

I understand Garth. Eventually he grew up in a country where selling wood to some other country is something positive.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/softwood-exports-up-on-recovering-us-demand/article4550029/
What a joke to export wood! Better export just air. Does anybody hear of “added value”?

He thinks US will recover. With 1.5 trillion deficit, about 5 trillions according to GAAP. Jobs are gone, even biggest companies like Apple, Walmart, Exxon just depend on foreign supply of products to sell in US.

US is gone, say goodbye. 50 million on foodstamps, whites are minority by 2050. They will keep printing until hyperinflation comes. Then they won’t, just because they can’t.

After that, we can start talking about US recovery, otherwise it’s not time.

#209 cynically on 10.07.12 at 12:41 am

To #165 TNT and I’ll include your pal of the same mind #166 Tony – my reference to the US recovery is to see it financially humming again like it was under Clinton. I agree there are a lot of peripheral problems which you mentioned, some of which we accept as fact, but a couple you’ve thrown out off the top of your head, e.g. the suicide-car accident comparison and the privatized banking system(?), without any credible proof in one case and logical sense in the other. The gun problem, unfortunately, will not go away because it is inured in their Constitution but guns in their military are protecting your ass so I wouldn’t mention them in that sense although we do seem to find them in a lot of wars. I won’t go into all the good things that have and are, still coming out of the US because I wouldn’t want to embarrass us with the comparison to what has come out of our country, except for a few comedians who made it across the line. Finally, if Garth is right and I believe he is, we’ll see what Canada’s “breadlines” look like when our crash comes. By the way, I love my wool coat. Thanks.

#210 cy on 10.07.12 at 12:51 am

what about when the derivatives bubble bursts? Thats gonna bring everything down.

#211 foolsrushin on 10.07.12 at 1:16 am

Inflation / Deflation

Soft Landing / Hard Landing

Fiat Currencies / Precious Metals

Turner / Rogers, Faber etc.

Why are we so compelled to convince others that everyone should think the same? Did the remaining passengers on the Titanic take comfort knowing they were going down with so many others? Do your own research/homework. Separate the fact from the fiction. Place your bets and be prepared to live with the outcome. You won’t advance yourself by arguing/convincing the masses your right and most importantly, it won’t change the outcome. Some investors actually prefer to be contrarian.
I often ask myself why this pathetic blog is so adamant that he is sooooo correct on soooo many topics. Track Record? Timing has been lacking in RE although he did get the direction right. Why waste time saving our collective pathetic souls when there are so many other grand opportunities out there. Life is short.
In all fairness, with respect to RE, his arguments and supporting data have been detailed and complete. I’m sure many Sheeple have been saved from themselves at an equal expense to others.

PS I too would love to hear how the endless worldwide printing of money is going to save our collective behinds and how the US will return to the top of the pile.

#212 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 10.07.12 at 1:32 am

#141 TurnerNation

Interesting pictures. But from your recent food entries, most of it looks quite horrible. Putrid, mouldy, stringy, bloody, uncooked, bacteria laden, squishy, damp, tepid. Need I go on. I’ll stay far away from that country.

====================================

Are you making fun of my cooking? Here is one just for you:

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2012/02/veal-liver.html

#213 Hawk on 10.07.12 at 1:47 am

#174 tonysilverdick on 10.06.12 at 6:49 pm

=============

Some deflation in asset prices is likely in the years ahead.

I don’t think there has never been a case overall “hyper-deflation” in the history of the world.

#214 TRT on 10.07.12 at 2:33 am

To POP the bubble:

Someone mentioned introducing a “Renter’s Tax Credit” that can be used to reduce income taxes payable.

This would in turn identify and then TAX rental income of Speculators/Landlords. Multiple unit landlords would be the hardest hit as they will fall into the highest tax bracket. Landlording then becomes unattractive from an economic sense. Surrey would be devastated!

Furthermore, increase property taxes on residential properties for foreign nationals.

These two measures would immediately take out speculators.

Bears are so stupid that they rant about CMHC limits, interest rates, etc. etc. etc. Band together and try to get these changes passed. VOTE.

No need to change interest rates or Guidelines. Institute a “Renters Tax Credit/Deduction” + Limit Foreign Nationals and the market will come back to reality.

Comments?

#215 ripa on 10.07.12 at 2:37 am

And yet the logic used by (my) parents, outlaws or anyone is: You should buy something you can’t afford today as you won’t be able to afford it tomorrow.
Kafka would be proud. pfft!

#216 TakingResponsibility on 10.07.12 at 2:53 am

@ #169 Canadian Watchdog on 10.06.12 at 5:53 pm

Always try to click on the Watchdog’s links but I am not getting the point here…..help?
Let me try….Somehow, teeny tiny condos – getting teenier-tinier – ‘predictably – is directly ordered from the UN??? The UN Agenda 21?
Is it the term, eerrmm, ‘sustainable development? Has the term sustainable development been subverted by developers? Is the term an oxymoron?
It’s late and I really want to “get” CW’s comment as he or she always has bright, insightful, articulate, and sometimes laconic comments.

#217 Oceanside on 10.07.12 at 4:11 am

#169 Canadian Watchdog on 10.06.12 at 5:53 pm
Janion would deliver $100,000 micro-condos to Vancouver Link

VICTORIA………………………….

#218 gtrz4peace on 10.07.12 at 5:21 am

140 Turner Nation

We disagree. Our experience is entrepreneurship exists in societies where there is an intelligent population that is encouraged in critical thinking skills. Low regulations do not aid entrepreneurship, or hurt it. In fact, low regulations increase the opportunities for corporate abuse of the environment and the populations they are supposed to be servicing.

#219 eagle eyes on 10.07.12 at 5:56 am

Some scold the doomers who wish for a major RE collapse because they feel that many will be devastated by such a loss. I think that most people who buy one house to live in and raise a family will not be much affected. They need a roof over their heads regardless of fluctuations in RE prices. Low interest rates mean that they will pay more for their homes, and higher rates mean that they will pay less. After 10 years, a big chunk of mortgage will be paid off, enough to cushion any falling prices. It is the people who have bought investment property(s) who should be worried. However, during the booming times they lived high and behaved badly. They justified their irresponsible behaviour. Do not feel badly for such people. Instead, they need to learn the motto “easy come, easy go” which does apply when you don’t work for a living. I was in a restaurant once, when I heard a housewife speaking loudly into her cell “what? they want another hundred grand? Sure, why not. $1.2 is chump change. I can make that back in 3 months.” Then she turns to her companion and says “I hate buying houses, it’s so much work.” Yawns, and resumes eating. PLEASE, bring in the collapse. This beach needs to learn a lesson.

#220 futurologist on 10.07.12 at 7:41 am

#208 new canadian

With 1.5 trillion deficit, about 5 trillions according to GAAP. Jobs are gone, even biggest companies like Apple, Walmart, Exxon just depend on foreign supply of products to sell in US. US is gone, say goodbye. 50 million on foodstamps, whites are minority by 2050.
———–
new canadian is absolutely right.
husain obama will have 4 more years to destroy USA.
USA will be same country as mexico, colombia and venesuala.

interesting, people from outside of canada and usa could understand the situation better than most of brain washed/brain dead local canadians and americans.

moreover, next few years europe became be same north africa with economic collapse, chaos, civil wars, intolerance as all arabic and islamic countries.

only politically corrected useful idiots can not understand it.

RE prices will be behave according to the coming economic collapse and chaos.

#221 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.07.12 at 7:41 am

Diane Finley (the Conservative who oversaw the CMHC bubble) yet again shows her bad ideas only get worse once implemented:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/10/06/ei-changes_n_1944568.html

This time, it is EI changes that didn’t make sense.

#222 John on 10.07.12 at 7:43 am

Daisy Mae wrote:

“They also have something to sell, which you’re buying. There will be no American collapse and no war. Get a grip. — Garth”

*****************

Wow! Very cool retort! LOL”
——–

It’s important to remember how our family, culture academic and media training takes us out of the picture.

Most normal people are not going to even notice non-critical positions ( like the “get a grip” nonsense). They are too busy getting their buttons pushed all day long.

We are formed into stimulus-responder children. Adult children. Decisions to get married, have children or buy a house are important and life-altering. And they are made from the perspective of a child in Canada.

The most infantile example of this could be those that do the stimulus-responding really well, and follow rules and authority blindly. Their bosses, community and “the public” thank them. Their (often) equally numbed out kids defend them to the teeth ( the army of “property virgins”).

And they’re easily led and influenced in this context. This explains some of the current “financial” system. A victim mindset means it’s just normal to be abused. How can an average person even be aware of this?

Nobody is at fault or to blame, but everyone is responsible. In a stunted child’s view of morality, and emotionally numbed-out, a dog-trained person hasn’t a clue of the difference between blame and responsibility.

#223 Bottoms_Up on 10.07.12 at 7:58 am

#219 eagle eyes on 10.07.12 at 5:56 am
———————————————
Paying off your house in 35 vs. 15 yrs certainly has an impact on families?

#224 Ret on 10.07.12 at 8:03 am

#214 TRT -Right on!

Apply the Renter’s Tax Credit to students as well. Why do the feds hand out student loans and not ask who is getting the rent portion of the student’s loan? Tax free rent money for all of the slumlords around universities and colleges.

The same situation applies to welfare checks handed out at the provincial level. Lots of non-disclosure of rents costing the rest of us billions in lost tax revenues.

Honest landlords get screwed while cheats and liars bonus.

#225 Dontcallmeshirley on 10.07.12 at 8:09 am

#214 TRT ,

Re: Renters tax credit

Ontario has renters tax credit already.

The gov’t cross referencing rent paid to rental income reported is poor at best.

Landlords can omit rental income from tax reporting with little fear. Your idea is sound, but execution and enforcement is problematic.

#226 Gunboat denier on 10.07.12 at 11:06 am

208 New Canuck – Lumber is a value-added product. This has been the traditional trade with the US. The article mentions a turn-around in the US housing market. Unless a different type of construction is used, lumber is the end product. Throw in some plywood etc. The bigger concern
now is the export of raw logs.

#227 jess on 10.07.12 at 11:08 am

…”John G. Moon, a lawyer at Miller & Wrubel who represents Mr. Priore’s firm, said: “Large institutions have been able to hide behind the expense of loan file review to evade responsibility for this very important national problem that we now have. Using years of data and cross-referencing it, Triaxx has figured out where the bad loans are.” …

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/business/how-to-find-weeds-in-a-mortgage-pool-fair-game.html

Triaxx, for example, said it had found loans that probably involved inflated appraisals. Those appraisals led to mortgages far exceeding the values of the underlying properties. As a result, investors who thought they were buying mortgages that didn’t exceed 80 percent of the properties’ value were instead buying highly risky loans that totaled well over 100 percent of the value.

Triaxx identifies these loans by analyzing 50 property sales in the same vicinity during the same period that the original mortgage was given. Then it compares the specific mortgage to 10 others that are most similar. The comparable transactions must involve the same type of property — a single-family home, for example — of roughly the same size. They must also be within a 5.5-mile radius. If the appraisal appears excessive, the system flags it.

Phony appraisals in its ResCap loans likely resulted in $1.29 billion in breaches, Triaxx told the court. Triaxx cited 50 possible cases; one involved a mortgage written in November 2006 on a home in Miami. It was a 1,036-square-foot single-family residence, and was appraised at $495,000. That appraisal supported a $396,000 mortgage, reflecting a relatively conservative 80 percent loan-to-value ratio.

But an analysis of 10 similar sales around that time suggested that the property was actually worth about $279,000. If that was indeed the case, that $396,000 mortgage represented a 142 percent loan-to-value ratio.

===

Appraisal Fraud: Triaxx Inching Toward the Truth
Posted on September 9, 2012 by Neil Garfield

…”
ICP Capital managing a vehicle called Triaxx, has countered the mountain of documents with real data sifted through algorithms on computers and they have come to the conclusion that loans were far outside the 80% LTV ratio that was presented to investors, that loans were never paid from the start (not even the first payment) and that probability of repayment was about zero on many loans. Soon, with some tweaking and investigation they will discover that repayment was never in the equation….”

http://livinglies.wordpress.com/2012/09/09/appraisal-fraud-triaxx-inching-toward-the-truth/

#228 Ogopogo on 10.07.12 at 11:11 am

Great post, Garth. If I had a child I’d make them read it. I love your reasoned optimism too, with all the doom-and-gloom talk that seems to pervade public discourse. I recently went head to head with my doomer father. He keeps saying that we’re on the verge of a “financial catastrophe”. This is nothing new. He has always been distrustful of the market and now, on the verge of retirement, may have to rely on me and my good lady to supplement his pitiful savings.

I only wish I’d had my financial awakening 20 years ago, but I guess being in my late 30s is still not too late. I wanted to thank you on this, the anniversary of my discovery of your blog!

#229 Mr Buyer on 10.07.12 at 11:12 am

Here is a very basic potential future for education…
http://thenewboston.org/index.php
This guy is putting this stuff together himself and allowing anyone to view it free. There are even Ivy league schools with non-credit courses available online for free. Another yet to be fully exploited potential is the way things are taught with animation, video, editing and game creation in the hands of educators now it is only a matter of time before how things are taught and modeled will turn things on their head. We need more science, not less, if we are to progress. Life long learning. Of course I took that to mean I could take a lifetime to learn something.

#230 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 11:21 am

#225Dontcallmeshirley on 10.07.12 at 8:09 am
#224Ret on 10.07.12 at 8:03 am
#214 TRT -Right on!

Honesty is the best policy.

If you know of someone cheating our tax system REPORT THEM or shut up and be content paying more than your fair share to make up for their evading doing so. Seriously, do you want to knowingly subsidize them? I thought not, so REPORT THEM. But do so not because you suspect but because you are sure as unleashing the CRA hounds on an innocent is one of the meanest things you could do to someone.

#231 Canadian Watchdog on 10.07.12 at 11:50 am

#216 TakingResponsibility

“is directly ordered from the UN”

Nothing is ordered by the UN. They’re smarter then that. Instead, they infiltrate goals and dialogs set forth by governments and city members, while at the same time making it “appear” to have been drafted at a grassroots level.

Here’s an example if you follow the documents and organizations.

Start here: Sustainable Vancouver (Washington) In the document “Sustainable Vancouver” it states:

Definition of Sustainability: The Green Ribbon Panel considered many different definitions of sustainability. The most commonly quoted definition of sustainability is from the United Nations 1987 publication, Our Common Future, known as the Bruntland Report, which states “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their won needs.” Further down in the document.. “This study, conducted by the Cascadia Region of the United States Green Building Council. ”

That leads to here: Public Workshop Vancouver: “Attendees are the green building leaders in their community: design professionals, contractors, developers, owners, government officials and employees of public agencies. In short, anyone and everyone who can impact the development of the built environment.”

Notice where the meeting is?University of British Columbia Robson Square This is what I mean by controlling the dialog at institutional levels, which eventually trickles down into the mindset of current and future planners.

[Note: if you go to their members page and look below on the right, you’ll see an emblem with CGI Commitment Maker. Who’s CGI? Clinton Global Initiative]

Toronto hires new chief planner

“In addition to leading a review of Toronto’s five-year official plan, Keesmaat’s other responsibilities as head of the city’s planning division will be to will be “to deliver complex, innovative and transformative projects successfully, build communities, improve customer service and promote a sustainable, healthy and economically vital city,” said the city release.”

See? City planners are already “trained” to think shrinking condos and densification is the way forward, yet they never talk about the root causes of today’s problems or building communities to encourage small business. That’s the point of it. Suppress small business and build lifestyles around the banks and mega-malls, that way, people are always plugged into the grid and buy food and goods from corporations. That’s what “sustainability” really means.

I could go on, but I think it’s clear who’s shaping your communities. Go to your local town or city’s website and you’ll be sure to find “sustainable development”, “sustainable growth” or terms like “smart growth”, these are terms and ideologies drafted by the United Nations who are encouraging a very bad idea for your kids.

#232 McLovin on 10.07.12 at 12:01 pm

DA how’s the Kelowna market? I heard the spin is things are getting better but prices are crashing hard.

#233 collective essence on 10.07.12 at 12:11 pm

Hi! Mr. Turner,

Follow your blog. Just want to thank you for sharing your valuable opinions. Besides the rant, there is always something meaningful here.

I just want to mention that a lot of our seniors are just getting by. Few, have to choose between paying for food or needed medicine. To them, inflation is painful. I think we could all use a little break. A little deflation might be good for us. Thanks.

#234 willworkforpickles on 10.07.12 at 12:54 pm

In the future were getting nothing but deflation and inflation.
Deflation on all assets and inflation on all essentials period.

#235 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 1:11 pm

There are the senior’s moments in life, and its called putting things off until the last minute. Today was no exception, as was sure my bank was open today as was short of shopping money; as always pay in cash. I went inside the bank, and was jumped by a painter who said holiday all closed, and thought tomorrow was the big day.

I had about $30.00, but could buy not buy groceries, as the parking lot was filled, and will not stand in lines for those who keep me standing behind old ladies trying hard to count their change forever. Off to the variety store with a credit card to pay too much for so little, as needed my reserve cash to put some gas in an empty tank, so am broke again until Tuesday.

#236 truth hammer on 10.07.12 at 1:11 pm

#169……it was the civil servants in Vanc city hall that reduced the FSR of condo’s 47% that led to the development of the shoe box condo….or as you refer to them….the jail cells of the future……however the future is today with a majority of owners now underwater and trapped in ther concrete coffins unable to see.

The grrrrreeeeed of the civil service did it because they saw the extra condo count on every piece of dirt as a boon for the increases in wages and pension perks they could rake in……many of the city staff are making in excess of $350,000 per year. City unions were all on board with the scam…..they all got big raises…less work and more benefits…..while working families got screwed.

#192……Chicago has always been and is famous for it’s corrupt unions and civil services…..ChicagoLand as it is called has most of the most egregious union frauds against the public purse that hit the news…….no small wonder that that cess pool of civil politics procuduced an anti christ like Obama.

#237 randman on 10.07.12 at 1:12 pm

Hawk #155

Thanks for your astute opinion!

“N. America needs to return to the free market worldview and crush government interference which is what made it super successful to begin with, …………but God knows if the people have it in them anymore.”

I would only add that this experiment cannot be stopped midstream…gov will never give up the
the reigns of power ,now that it is latched onto the
common man like a bloodsucking tick.

Perhaps the greatest struggle in the history of Mankind awaits us,not far down the road now….

Who will succeed? The jailers or the imprisoned?

That is the question…..

#238 randman on 10.07.12 at 1:25 pm

John

“Garth is certainly right about deflation.”

Yes John, Garth is right about deflation…and he’s wrong

Those are the forces with which we are battling with now….

However ….. The fed et al don’t want to let it take it’s course so we can re-set the system.

Instead they are creating massive amounts of money
hoping to ease out of the situation …but this will have
disastrous results……

We need to take a beating either way….

The debate on Deflation/Depression vs Inflation/Loss of currency value is mute…because it all depends on what the Fed does…

Hardly. The Fed lacks the ability to create inflation. Surely you would have learned that by now. — Garth

#239 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 1:32 pm

Just another comment, as am one of these old fashion guys who just has two credit cards, as all that one needs is Visa and Mastercard with one being highend, and the other no more than $5000. Yet, see people who have a baker’s dozen in their wallets – why? I have no bank ID card with a pin, and no debit cards, as cash is king in my book. Imao, sometimes I get caught with all these bank holidays, as the TD has selective branches that are open on Sunday, so why a double turkey day for them? I will eat cake this weekend lol.

#240 randman on 10.07.12 at 1:33 pm

D.A.

“If you know of someone cheating our tax system REPORT THEM or shut up and be content paying more than your fair share to make up for their evading doing so. Seriously, do you want to knowingly subsidize them? I thought not, so REPORT THEM. But do so not because you suspect but because you are sure as unleashing the CRA hounds on an innocent is one of the meanest things you could do to someone.”

Sure DA…just like in Nazi Germany ,then during Stalins rule and after that Mao’s cultural revolution…

Just like what is coming to Garth’s favorite country ..the USSA!

“Apparently, Americans are getting more interested in snitching on each other. According to Google Trends, internet searches for terms such as “IRS reward” (and related keywords) have exploded since 2008, and especially this year.”

How about the Drone flights now?

The radiation bath’s people need to take when traveling ?

The multi billion electronic eavesdropping centre that the good old yanks are building…….will have the ability
to monitor all communication worldwide..

people like you make me sick ….mind your own business!

If people are avoiding the tax man …let them!

#241 Keith in Calgary on 10.07.12 at 1:33 pm

http://www.inquisitr.com/352420/homeless-billionaire-nicolas-berggruen-chooses-to-live-simply/

The “homeless billionaire”………..an interesting read.

#242 TRT on 10.07.12 at 1:41 pm

#230 DA

Much anger in your response I see.

Dude, if you are loaded with a lot of Paid off Real Estate as you portray, then I doubt you would spend ur time posting here on a regular basis. Your anger makes u transparent.

House prices have risen 100%+ in the last 10 years vs incomes. Some people got screwed because of these ‘fraudulent’ government policies. Picking on someone with less than you is a sign of a coward.

What’s wrong with an enforceable Renters tax credit? Level the government policies for both landlords and renters.

#243 Ogopogo on 10.07.12 at 2:02 pm

#232 McLovin on 10.07.12 at 12:01 pm
DA how’s the Kelowna market? I heard the spin is things are getting better but prices are crashing hard.

DA may spin all he wants, but the reality is that sales AND prices have dropped sharply from their peak in 2008. DA wants to pretend that areas like Kelowna South haven’t been affected. Maybe to the same degree as outlying areas, but it’s still ugly and getting worse. Units for sale in my condo have languished for over a year now, and I’m in Kelowna South. A few homes have sold in the area, but grossly under asking.

#244 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 2:21 pm

#240 randman – tax evasion is a crime, but avoiding taxation legally is what one must do, and never sign a tax return filled with lies, because it is not worth it, as if you are caught you will pay a price. I had a few clients that prepared taxation for that were complex, but knew the Tax Act. One guy failed to acquire a capital tax loss disposition on a stock that went south and his broker could have down this, so he said file it as a capital loss, and said no, but will file it as a business investment loss instead. He said do as I say, and said take it elsewhere, and have someone else do it, but not me, as will only sign a good return. I gave up my fee, and he went elsewhere; he didn’t have the proper documentation for a capital stock loss.

#245 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 2:25 pm

#232McLovin on 10.07.12 at 12:01 pm
DA how’s the Kelowna market? I heard the spin is things are getting better but prices are crashing hard.

Volumes are up by about 8% this year to date over the same period last year although September, which is included in the preceding, is down about 20% over last year’s volumes.

Prices are stable not having changed anything noteworthy for the past 3 to 4 years.

Looks like this and the two years prior will prove a flat line – nothing remarkable in either direction. That’s not a bad thing by any means.

As always in any market: Well priced homes, not overpriced nor underpriced but priced at market, are selling in about 50 days for closer to 98% of their list price. Homes overpriced by as little as 2.5% languish on the market for over 100 days ultimately selling for closer to just 95% of their list price proving the folly in building in negotiation room. Overpriced homes are not selling but do make those intelligently priced homes look like bargains – thank you very much.

#246 detalumis on 10.07.12 at 2:34 pm

#48 DonDWest I think has described the whole problem in a nutshell. He is 100 percent correct, credentialism will be our downfall. Really if you think about it, you can easily teach primary education with just teacher’s college like they did in the past, hell home schooled kids do very well, even bank managers used to learn on the job. Today you need university to be a bank teller or work in the call center.

We need a system like Switzerland where huge numbers of jobs are learned through apprenticeship and on the job training. I met computer programmers and accountants who were trained by the Swiss banks they were “apprenticed” with, it’s not just blue collar work.

When I visit my old neighbourhood in the Steel City it used to be full of not-so-bright, hard-working people but families were stable, today it’s populated by baby mammas and drug dealers and the family structure has collapsed – there are no jobs except for part-time fast food for people that aren’t smart enough to graduate from university or pass calculus and what have you. We created this mess ourselves and then we have the audacity to blame the victims of it.

#247 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 2:38 pm

#240randman on 10.07.12 at 1:33 pm

people like you make me sick ….mind your own business!

If people are avoiding the tax man …let them!

‘Avoiding’ is quite a bit different than ‘evading’.

#242TRT on 10.07.12 at 1:41 pm

I don’t know where your comment comes from I was merely suggesting if anyone knows of anyone cheating the Tax Man they should report them as that lost tax revenue has to be made up somewhere and ultimately is so made up by increasing the taxes on people like you and me.

#243Ogopogo on 10.07.12 at 2:02 pm

But of course you must have a special connection to the market data that I do not. Why don’t you then give us some specific examples. I maintain as I posted in my previous response to McLovin;

Volumes are up by about 8% this year to date over the same period last year although September, which is included in the preceding, is down about 20% over last year’s volumes.

Prices are stable not having changed anything noteworthy for the past 3 to 4 years.

Looks like this and the two years prior will prove a flat line – nothing remarkable in either direction. That’s not a bad thing by any means.

Don’t believe me walk into any real estate office and as them to show you by keying in the criteria under your scrutinizing eye.

#248 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 2:47 pm

There is a problem with turning in a suspected tax cheater; the first is just leave it be, as although you might be a good Canadian with a moral attitude to do what is right, what if you are wrong about it all? This might leave you open for a huge lawsuit in the end. I will never forget my meeting with the head of the OPP over a different matter, and said something: It matters not how long it goes on, as they will eventually get caught in the end.

#249 renters rule on 10.07.12 at 2:58 pm

@#214

Quebec also has a renter’s tax credit.

#250 Seven Stars and Orion on 10.07.12 at 3:18 pm

I find it astonishing that any jurisdiction would be lax about reporting and collecting rental property income. If a clever bloke owns a couple shacks, and doesn’t report for a couple decades, isn’t revenue out a couple hundred grand, nevermind inflation and interest?

#251 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 3:46 pm

#246 detalumas – agreed as Canada needs more apprenticeship occupations, and some occurs in the medical field; auto mechanics do this as well, and am sure there are others. The University of Waterloo lead the charge with job work training as part of their academic degree many years ago. Canada needs to change the educational system at all levels with part academics, and part on the work experience to achieve a degree of their choice.

The entire education system needs to be changed with academics, and on the job training to meet with the future employers part-time, as this will become a plus with a job offer in the end upon graduation; kind of like a meeting of the minds to eliminate the job interviews and resumes; it is called fast tracking the youth into job employment.

#252 gladiator on 10.07.12 at 3:55 pm

I will be with Garth on the matter of deflation to be expected. Here are the facts (and not my opinions which are of no value to anyone but me):
1. The Fed injected more than 2 trillions of additional money into the world since 2008. That’s significant, but didn’t cause inflation in the developed world.
2. Japan and Europe injected lots of money too, and no inflation either.
3. The large financial companies hoarded most of this cash to avoid what they went through in 2008 – 2009, namely, lack of liquidity. They hold much more cash on their books nowadays.
4. Non-financials also hoarded cash so they can function normally in case of liquidity drying up.
5. We all know that official inflation numbers are fudged; nevertheless, they are used to gauge the yearly salary raises for employed folk, and these numbers being lower than what they should be, people got less money to spend (in real terms) than before. I, for one, am poorer than last year, because my food and gas bills are higher by more than those 2% of my salary increase.
6. Canadians are in debt up to their (top of the ) eyeballs. A quite significant part of their incomes goes to cover debt payments, so there’s less money left for other things. Less money chasing the same amount of goods equals deflation.
7. I will expect inflation when there’ll be significant increases in salaries people get, but till then, deflation is much more probable. Fixed-income securities is the way to go for now. A wonderful thing being the ability to sell them as soon as the tide turns and inflation is more in the cards.
8. One thing has to be pointed out: there’ll still be inflation in food and gas, as much as we don’t want it. These are things that people need and will fork over more of their dough to feed their families and get around.
9. Gold is a bad gauge of inflation, because it has its own demand and when it goes up, it is not just the dollar going down, but more people wanting to own more of it. I wouldn’t use it to check the dynamics of inflation.
10. I wasn’t agreeing with Garth on the future of the US, but now I am sold: I think that it will not be easy in the US, with growing numbers of people on food stamps, with more and more misery, etc. it is not going to be a pretty place; however, when you compare it with the rest of the world, it is the place to be in, because Europe, China, Japan are even more screwed.

#253 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 4:03 pm

There are all kinds of job opportunities with just a two year course after graduation from highschool to make big money, unless $50K a year is not enough, so will tell naught, as that is up all to do the research. I will tell you one that I saw years ago, as this guy signed contracts with big law firms to document in Toronto title searches for them, and was making big money.

So all is not lost for the youth to find employment, as when you are down and out just look for a demand for any service, and fill it with your labour; it is just that simple, so don’t ever give up, and get fired up to make some money in life, by doing something different in life.

#254 Canadian Watchdog on 10.07.12 at 4:18 pm

Correction: Charts for the rental and property tax debate.

GTA Average Condo Rent and Average Condo Property Tax Index

Household Rental Income % of Total Investments In Residential Structures

#255 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 4:22 pm

About to sit down tg din din. Need to do grace.

It’s going to go something like this.

To the force of random electron generation.

Thank you for having me connived and plopped out in the greatest country ever.

I am so proud to be a houser long live Canada.

#256 Hugh Jasz on 10.07.12 at 4:39 pm

Gonna rush out and buy some gold, silver, diamonds……the guys on AM640 this morning were just so convincing!

(Seriously, some of the claims being made were optimistic to the point of being ludicrous, and border on outright fraudulent……).

#257 TRT on 10.07.12 at 4:41 pm

#253 OLD MAN

Old man, you are out of touch with the reality of TODAY.

$50,000 a year job for today’s youth… after taxes will result in a long working life…etc. etc. etc. This is no different than a slave 400 years ago; they ate, slept, worked, were obedient, etc..

Care to comment Smoking Man?

#258 TRT on 10.07.12 at 4:48 pm

#249 Renter’s rule

Explains why Montreal prices do not equal Vancouver’s.

Also, interesting to note that many bears think pessimistically. Always finding faults with ideas..

enough said.

#259 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 4:54 pm

I have a message for Smoking Man from the Weather Witch, as she says she would love to meet you, after Garth’s seminar, but you must take her for dinner at Hy’s Steakhouse and Cocktail Bar on Adelaide St. West or will go with Garth instead. Now that is class, and the last time I was there with a dinner for 4 cost me with tax and tips close to $1000 with a bottle of fine wine, and kid you not. The new Four Seasons Hotel is a joke in my opinion, as the old one had it all.

#260 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 5:01 pm

#257 TRT am very much in touch with reality as a two year course that involves medical can make a young person out of highschool making 50K a year, or they can end up working for minimum wage forever, so what is your point?

#261 Picasso on 10.07.12 at 5:14 pm

In Canada you need a 6 figure job to be middle class.

Inflationary pressures remain weak according to data. But don’t be fooled. Just because gas prices have dropped slightly, doesn’t mean we’re doing better. We know everything is overly expensive. Want proof? I pay more than CDN$1.50/litre for gas – that’s roughly $5.70/gallon. The US average is US$3.80. So if Americans are complaining about high gas prices, imagine how Canadians feel – especially since Canada is one of the largest oil producers in the world.

If inflationary pressures are weak now, I would hate to see what happens if they show up. Housing prices in Canada are already far too high and if the benchmark interest rates rise as a result of inflationary pressures, watch home prices tumble further.

#262 McLovin on 10.07.12 at 5:25 pm

Prices are stable not having changed anything noteworthy for the past 3 to 4 years.

DA how much are Kelowna prices down from the peak? Not seasonally adjusted or any spin. Simply on a % basis if one had bought at the high in 2007 (condo, attached, detached) how much would they be down in %?

Thank you for your time on this.

#263 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 5:37 pm

Not trying to be inflammatory . Observation. In the hood 3 properties over priced, no way will sell.

Sold.

Wtf my prediction sfh 416. Sales the lowest ever, why. Nothing for sale.

Chirp bubble heads. Doesn’t change whats happening.

#264 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 5:44 pm

Trt youth are screwd.

Education, diploma, shit wages and a cube will not cut it.

Learn to lie, scam, cheat, and win. Self employment your only train pass to prosperity. You go with the accepted path, only 1 out of 100 will luck into that road map.

Learn to be a smoking man. Your only salvation

#265 Timbo on 10.07.12 at 5:50 pm

#234 willworkforpickles

In the future were getting nothing but deflation and inflation.
Deflation on all assets and inflation on all essentials period.

For now but a majority are losing purchasing power due to lower wages and very high debt levels. If the purchasing power erodes any more the voting public will dictate a change policy that could be very reactionary.

http://anticap.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/02economix-growth-chart3-blog480.jpg

http://go.bloomberg.com/multimedia/americas-growing-income-gap-shows-two-recoveries-in-action/

#266 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 6:02 pm

Old man 50 k a year is poverty. The machine has the track 6ers thinking wow 50k I have made it.

Puke.

If your not pulling down 250k a year at min. Your a loser.

Put icing on that cake all you want. It’s reality.

Trade time for wages. Loser
Ride on track 6. Loser.
Chirp the smoking man loser. Notice Garth don’t.
Believe in truth hounestly and the American way. Loser.

Put on the cape. The black cape. Go and make your own prosperity by out foxing fellow idiots, who love you while take from them.

School years of be hounestly, play fair, be good. Only sets you back while giving you have the programed feeling your righteousness. Ba ha ha.

Why can’t people see the obvious.

I have so much work to do here.

#267 Mark W on 10.07.12 at 6:04 pm

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/409550–empire-theatres-granville-shutting-down

From six to zero in Vancouver.

A city actually dying under the weight of it’s own unaffordability.

Do you see theatres in the suburbs closing?

Answer: NO!

#268 John on 10.07.12 at 6:04 pm

Opopgo wrote:

“Great post, Garth. If I had a child I’d make them read it. I love your reasoned optimism too, with all the doom-and-gloom talk that seems to pervade public discourse. I recently went head to head with my doomer father. He keeps saying that we’re on the verge of a “financial catastrophe”. This is nothing new. He has always been distrustful of the market and now, on the verge of retirement, may have to rely on me and my good lady to supplement his pitiful savings.

I only wish I’d had my financial awakening 20 years ago, but I guess being in my late 30s is still not too late. I wanted to thank you on this, the anniversary of my discovery of your blog!”
———-
Pessimism, for whatever reason, is not a good direction to follow. Imagination is powerful. A “doomer” who just “dooms” isn’t saying anything valuable or accurate.

That said, the idea of “ponzi-approved solvency” learned at an early age may not be the real answer. Real human needs being met in family, community and business are the takeaway. All underscored by offering value. Why so key? To offer value, you have to actually have it. Ponzi schemes are about outsmarting dogs and playing greed and fear. Too often “value” is feeding someone’s ego, getting “paid” for it, and then hiding in your house with a very small trusted circle.

People are talking financial security without human content. Where is the family and community? Is that supposed to be a “given”?

That’s how things work in a casino.

#269 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 6:05 pm

Old man I am happily married, ain’t going to happen with weather witch. Period.

#270 Canadian Watchdog on 10.07.12 at 6:15 pm

#260 Old Man

Canada’s education system is deteriorating and has become an international playground for foreigners.

Nominal health sector wages are down 0.4% YTD, and down 2.5% in real terms, in other words, 50K just dropped to 48.7K.

#271 Timbo on 10.07.12 at 6:19 pm

#155 Hawk,

Fantastic idea. Unfortunately for growing middle class that dream has left the station. Policies have created this and hopefully policies can fix this.

In the US
“In the past 30 years, 96% of the growth of average incomes in this country have gone to the richest 10% of the country. And in the past 10 years, the incomes of the other 90% have declined.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/income-inequality-2012-8

#272 Mr Buyer on 10.07.12 at 6:39 pm

#263 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 5:37 pm
Chirp bubble heads. Doesn’t change whats happening.
……………………………………………………………..
There is another twinkle twinkle little start what you say is what you are moment

#273 Old Man on 10.07.12 at 6:43 pm

I have two directions in life, and one is to support those that are old, and the other is to support the young people in Canada, as they need help to move forward with no gloom or doom, but with a clear mind to figure it all out, and it may be not a universary degree anymore, but a new direction for a career to ride the wave with a shift in the demographic demand, as the world is changing.

I spent a huge amount of money years ago that was hidden to assist single mothers that had a child with a gift which involved the stage with great potential to become stars in the entertainment business; they had no money for them to go forward with bus trips to NYC, like the other kids whose parents had the bucks, so took my capital to step in to make it happened with them too to get them up in life, as you might be poor, but go for it all; as was known as an Angel .

Some of those that I funded in secret are now great stars in the world, and it makes me smile, as they will never know who the Angel was that changed their life life forever; they just needed a financial boost from poverty to riches in life in youth to fuel them to keep on going to achieve their dream in life.

#274 cramar on 10.07.12 at 6:47 pm

@#82 The Real Jimbo

Thank you for this. It is inspirational and priceless advice, which I’ve saved for future reference. If people like you could educated our youth, they would not be in such a big mess.

#275 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 6:48 pm

If shit ever hit the fan visualize this. The diploma totters . We are fighting to get milk. The economy tanked. The people are hungry. Who will rock.

Those that have weapons

#276 Mark W on 10.07.12 at 7:03 pm

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/409550–empire-theatres-granville-shutting-down

Actually this article goes on to state that after this year with the last theatre in downtown Vancouver closing there will be no place (yet) to hold the VIFF … the Vancouver International Film festival.

So will the VIFF move to the suburbs?

If “yes” will it still be called the VIFF, or maybe the SIFF .. the Surrey International Film Festival.

The suburb of Surrey will be the largest city in BC within a few short years anyway.

Ratio of new business license applications of Surrey to Vancouver: 12 to 1.

More space in downtown Vancouver now to build HAM condos.

The nasty fact is that retailing is dying in downtown Vancouver because of the cost of real estate.

Moving out to the suburbs just fine.

#277 Gunboat denier on 10.07.12 at 7:14 pm

231 Watchdog – good post

239 Old man. I came to the 2 card limit a few years back. It was pointless to carry more as I wasnt using them. They have big limits. One I use for work. But please, get a bank card. Withdraw cash and stuff it in drawer/sock/
somewhere.

And I agree that a $50K job for a 20 year old is pretty
good money.

#278 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 7:36 pm

#262McLovin on 10.07.12 at 5:25 pm
Prices are stable not having changed anything noteworthy for the past 3 to 4 years.

DA how much are Kelowna prices down from the peak? Not seasonally adjusted or any spin. Simply on a % basis if one had bought at the high in 2007 (condo, attached, detached) how much would they be down in %?

Thank you for your time on this.

Peak volume was 2007. Peak prices were 2008. The average residential price in 2008 for all products, single family and strata, was $455,529 (3,192 unit sales). This year to the end of September the average for the same was $416,256 (2,709 unit sales thus far). So if my math is correct that would be an average decline in price of 8.62%. There are areas of the city where prices have increased and there are areas of the city where the price has decreased more than that 8.62%.

These results actually surprised me as I thought the price drops were a little higher but that is what they are as a result of me doing a search for all single family residential and strata sales for the Central Okanagan for all of 2008 and the same for 2012 to the end of September. NO SPIN no seasonal adjustments.

FYI I searched the stats for 2007. The portal in the system I use caps out at 5,000 unit results. There were more than 5,000 sales of single family residential and strata in the Central Okanagan in that year and the average price was $427,083. You’ve heard me mention before that price follows volume with a notable delay up or down right? Peak price was 2008. Peak volume was 2007.

#279 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 7:40 pm

#262McLovin on 10.07.12 at 5:25 pm

You did catch my previous comment that single family unit sales volumes are up 8% this year to date over last, right. Plug that into price follows volume up or down. It may not result in any immediate prices increases but it most certainly will curtail any such price drops as the fence sitters might be waiting for.

#280 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 8:01 pm

There were 1,952 single family residential sales and 1,240 strata sales in Kelowna in 2008 = 3,192 total.

and

There were 1,946 single family residential sales and 1,187 strata sales in Kelowna in 2011 = 3,133 total.

So you can see that my comment in a previous post where I claimed the market has flatlined for the last four years and that is not a bad thing at all, is an accurate statement.

Again, you caught my other comment that this year to date volumes are up 8% over the same period last year, right?

#281 };-) aka D.A. on 10.07.12 at 8:05 pm

Kelowna is doing just fine. };-)

We have simply returned to normal, much to the chagrin of those who prefer those more heady exuberant times.

#282 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 8:43 pm

Mr buyer. What the hell u saying. Twinkle. I’m confused

#283 Smoking Man on 10.07.12 at 8:50 pm

Old man you Peter Mansbridge

#284 Old Man on 10.08.12 at 12:27 am

#283 – Smoking Man: do not disclose my cover as you might be right.

#285 goinbeans on 10.08.12 at 2:22 am

My general impression in reading this weblog for many months now is of a series of empirical, data based observations and predictions about the future of real estate markets in Canada being complemented especially of late with a number of ad-hoc, unverified, non-evidence based assertions about the future of the Canadian, American, and world economy; namely that the massive quantitative easing policies embraced by central banks will not flood the markets with so much currency as to create hyper-inflation; and that the global interchange of ideas and inter-reliance will pre-empt large scale conflict for the foreseeable future; yes, there are admittedly large differences between private (individual) and sovereign debt, but trajectories of compounded growth in debt levels are troubling. Is there more to point to than faith when predicting the stability of the future economy?

#286 jess on 10.08.12 at 2:05 pm

you may enjoy this paper watchdog

http://www.uni-mannheim.de/cds/cdse/dipa/118.pdf

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=monotonic+function

===================
free press
principal-agent problem / minimizing gambling for resurrection

http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politics/faculty/downs/conflict.pdf

#287 xdisciple on 10.09.12 at 1:28 pm

The vanishing middle class and other leftist myths .
Canadian Business. 69 (11):117 Sept. 1996.