Donkeynomics

It’s always great hearing from my fans, especially realtors who have a contract out on me or recent high-end condo buyers who want a bearded guy as a hood ornament. After being on CBC’s National last night, as part of a real estate slugfest, my inbox bloated.

Some messages were crude. Some deftly condescending. I give “Jason from Vancouver” a gold star for creativity and sexual confusion (this is a family blog so I have omitted the bits about animal penises):

You really think that Vancouver is going to lose about 40% to it’s real estate value!?!? How DELETED stupid are you, aside from very? Wow. At least i now know the reasons why you are no longer in politics. You were fired! up to 40%. DELETED moron! It is very obvious you said that crap to get yourself some attention because no one talks to you any longer. Poor old, dementia guy.

You have ZERO proof. You have ZERO indications. And yet you come out and say something like that. You should have said your a homosexual as well, and that you suck the DELETED of donkeys. You look like a donkey hybird of some kind. What kind are you?

Did I ever mention that real estate’s the most emotional of assets? People buy usually because they lust after it, even when they know it makes no financial sense. So when a guy comes along and calls them out, they attack, as if that will make supply shrink or demand swell and paper over their mistake.

This is truly a shame. Mostly because I love donkeys. In a good way.

Well, CTV in Vancouver had me in the studio Friday afternoon doing a double-ender with some reporter on the other end who asked me, “Why are you the only one saying these things when all the economists out here say real estate is doing just fine?”

“Because they’re wrong,” I said. “Feel free to paint me as a lone wolf if you want, I don’t care. But let’s see what happens.” I think she was peeved at being told to do a story just because CBC took the lead. Without a doubt, it will marginalize me.

Vancouver is toast, as you know. So is Victoria, the Okanagan and most of the Fraser Valley. Sales are wobbling most places outside of Calgary, which will be extremely surprised next year. Toronto sales have dipped and condos are set to implode. In fact, almost everywhere the meme of housing caution is taking hold – even in those spots where booms and busts are relatively unknown. Like the fishy provinces.

For example, here’s little New Brunswick, home of some of the cheapest housing in the country and a population of just 750,000 – where there are now an astonishing 6,000 listings, a thousand of which hit the market last month. Supply has suddenly overwhelmed demand, with the provincial real estate cartel declaring it, officially, a “buyer’s market.”

The average house in Saint John now sits for close to 150 days before selling (a number inflating fast), and price reductions are de rigeur. As one irritated realtor told the local paper: “We all have lots of listings and we all have lots of unhappy people trying to sell their houses who just can’t quite understand, in spite of the numbers — why haven’t you sold my house?”

And it’s getting worse. The cancellation of a big refinery project was the tipping point, coming after F’s War on the House was launched six months ago. Cheap interest rates, scared sellers and desperate bankers are not enough to rescue this place. A province that I thought a year ago would escape the housing correction is now about to be floored by it.

And in Nova Scotia on Friday, this was the scorecard: 81 new listings, 55 price reductions and 41 sales. That pattern has been repeated daily now for months on end, with supply swamping sales and buyers realizing they’d better get out now, or get less later. In the demand area of the South Shore, long a favourite of wealthy sailor-types from Boston, prices are headed back to 2009 levels, and the average home is sitting on the market for 177 days.

Astonishingly, the average DOM for properties there over $1 million is now 648. That’s right. Almost two years.

And in Halifax, the largest city by far in the Maritimes, the market is chilling after a burst of speculative stupidity following the announcement of the new, faux navy shipbuilding contract. Sales have slowed to a crawl and prices are being reduced with every high tide. It may not be as epic as the desertification of Richmond in the Lower Mainland, but in a part of the country with high debt, low incomes and a 15% HST, this sure hurts.

So, Jason, squirm and bitch all you want. Real estate’s a dangerous, inflated asset now entering a corrective phase everywhere. It’s all about economics – supply and demand, debt and incomes, growth and deflation.

Trash me all you wish. But, for the love of god, leave my donkey out of it.

286 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 09.21.12 at 9:26 pm

Great job on The National the other night Garth!

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.21.12 at 9:32 pm

Astonishingly, the average DOM for properties there over $1 million is now 648. That’s right. Almost two years.

So, we have a city where $1M properties are seen as “entry-level” (Vancouver), and another city where $1M properties are so far out of reach that they take 2 years to sell.

And yet, median incomes in Halifax are 14% higher than in Vancouver!!!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

This country is absolutely the most irrational place on earth for real estate (ok, excluding a few Asian countries).

#3 Ferrari4321 on 09.21.12 at 9:33 pm

can u post a link to the mentioned videos?

#4 Mark W on 09.21.12 at 9:33 pm

Yea, but whatta about Winnipeg … ???

#5 nsqt on 09.21.12 at 9:33 pm

The reason why a lot of people are not “getting” what you are saying is that they are to busy floating down the river of “De-nial” , on their boat that was paid for with a low interest line of credit…….watch out…..rough waters ahead which may cause your boat not to float.

#6 Paully on 09.21.12 at 9:36 pm

I find it amazing that in the face of all this evidence of a pending market top, apparently lots of people in Toronto still think the market will continue to advance forever.

In David Fleming’s most recent Toronto Realty Blog post, he says that he had clients who were unsuccessful in a bidding war in Riverdale this week. The house ended up going for a mere $222,000 over asking!

Ack!

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/sorry-folks/7825#more-7825

#7 GB on 09.21.12 at 9:37 pm

Yep, living in New Brunswick (Fredericton)…I see houses just sitting on the market like never before. No place can escape economic fundamentals.

#8 Baron von Munchouses on 09.21.12 at 9:39 pm

Garth, that is friggin’ hilarious.

#9 CP on 09.21.12 at 9:42 pm

You knew the rats would start coming out of the woodwork..

#10 Paully on 09.21.12 at 9:45 pm

Read how Garth writes. Compare it with how Jason writes.

Conclusion:

Jason, it is hard to successfully slander someone when it is obvious that he is more intelligent than you!

#11 Observer on 09.21.12 at 9:48 pm

You know something is wrong, when all that young families can afford, is so small that you can watch TV from the crapper.

#12 Brad on 09.21.12 at 9:48 pm

I feel for the financially unsophisticated types dupped into homeownership by banks and realtors. As for this douche bag Aka Jason from Vancouver or I have absolutely no sympathy for lol. That also goes for all the smug condesending homeowners who love to brag about how much their real estate has appreciated blah blah blah.

#13 Toronto_CA on 09.21.12 at 9:48 pm

“Mostly because I love donkeys. In a good way.”

Gold. Oh Garth, I have to leave the office during quarter end and get from the financial district out to the airport to hear your Toronto talk.

Has everyone noticed how the media has completely turned on RE in the last week or so? I was predicting October would be the beginning of the downturn, but it certainly seems sentiment has turned nationwide already.

#14 Gypsy Kid on 09.21.12 at 9:49 pm

People are afraid and need a scapegoat and you are IT, Garth.

And, of course real estate is emotional. It’s always been so…it’s also psychological. It grounds and tethers us in this constantly shifting society.
I dont think people think in terms of good financial choices when it comes to their homes…obviously. Otherwise, we wouldnt be in this mess right now.

#15 CalgaryBoy on 09.21.12 at 9:50 pm

“Jason from Vancouver” is upset only because he knows you’re right and he’s scared. If he TRULY believes everything is fine, he and other people would just ignore you and life goes on. And then to say you should have announced you’re a homosexual indicates just how immature he is.

There are tons of people who believe in you, and then there are tons of people who say they don’t want to believe in you, but deep inside they think you might just be correct.

I think we are gonna see a lot of people trying to cash out on their assets!

#16 Soylent Green is People on 09.21.12 at 9:50 pm

That pic, no way, he’s going to CRUSH the last couple of fools there. p.s. Rents in GTA are astronomical. Where do all the poor people live?

Did you read about Stephen Harper’s dead parrot?

……………..

It’s the gobsmacking cynicism and the contempt at its foundation. Contempt for Parliament, the judiciary, the media, and anyone who gets in their way. But most of all, contempt for Canadians. Stephen Harper is looking us straight in the eye and saying, “it’s not dead. It’s resting.”

The parrot is dead. It’s lying on the floor of the House of Commons and it’s not moving. Because it’s dead.

The Conservatives are so shameless, they will look straight into the eye of a man holding a dead parrot and say, “it’s resting.”

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Column+parrot+just+resting/7275471/story.html#ixzz274NG4WZb

.

#17 Just Say No on 09.21.12 at 9:51 pm

-50% does not seem far off with actual incomes. Unless we twist buyers arms until they put in a full offer. A home is a money pit and does not make economic sense to put every pay check and some towards for a place to sleep. And trying to find a renter to help you with your high payments is just not worth the price in a hope to cash in on so called easy money. It is also very hard on Marriages.

#18 KG on 09.21.12 at 9:52 pm

Now you need to explain how do you these pictures.

#19 Rainman on 09.21.12 at 9:53 pm

booya… great job indeed!!!!

#20 Dragonslayer on 09.21.12 at 9:55 pm

Gold up again today. Suckers rally or the beginning of a trend? The 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day line which is a strong technical signal.

Still, am torn. Garth makes a good case, but so does Peter Schiff who is bullish on gold.

Think I’ll watch from the sidelines on this one.

#21 X on 09.21.12 at 9:58 pm

I think you should hang on to Jason’s email address to stay in touch and send him monthly updates…plus to update you Christmas card mailing list.

#22 Chinstrap on 09.21.12 at 9:59 pm

Garth, I sold in 2007 as the economy slowed and I had another investment condo coming do. I also read Greater Fool at that time and it made sense then. However, there is something called timing in investing, whether it’s stocks or real estate. 2009 was the time to back up the truck on sold off stocks and real estate.

I can’t comment on what’s going on out East but in Toronto there are 100,000 people moving here a year. They are coming from South Africa,China, Russia, Iran, Brazil… have money and love what Toronto and Canada has to offer. They are loving the fact that they can come to Canada where they have: freedom, safety, education, healthcare, and opportunities..

If immigration could save real estate, Miami would never have crashed 45%. — Garth

#23 Jon B on 09.21.12 at 10:02 pm

What’s this about you doing a double-ender with a CTV reporter? I thought this was a family blog.

#24 45north on 09.21.12 at 10:02 pm

That pattern has been repeated daily now for months on end, with supply swamping sales and buyers realizing they’d better get out now, or get less later.

sellers realizing they’d better get out now

on my street (in Ottawa) there are 250 houses. 3 are for sale, on the market since Sept 2 or before. I think they’re asking too much.

#25 Littleboyblue on 09.21.12 at 10:03 pm

So watching The National the other night, the real estate guy was saying “the fundamentals support the market” but the reporter didn’t bother to push even in the slightest on what fundamentals the guy was referring to. I wanted to hear his views not on previous market performance but why he truly believes the market won’t continue to slide. Garth’s predictions make a whole lot of sense based on some very obvious facts. Real estate guy either a) knows something about the market that is not so obvious, b) knows the market is going to slide and is outright misleading people or c) just has “faith” in the market. You hope for real estate guys sake that its option a.

#26 LJ on 09.21.12 at 10:05 pm

Love the picture. The guy, second from the left, on the ground, has his priorities straight!

#27 Sebee on 09.21.12 at 10:14 pm

Donkeys are awesome. They just keep at it, always dependable always getting it done. If some of us worked as hard as donkeys there would be fewer poor productivity reports for Canadians.

#28 Soylent Green is People on 09.21.12 at 10:16 pm

Canada has freedom, safety, education, healthcare, and opportunities?

Good Lord – WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN THE LAST 6/7 YEARS?

Google Stephen Harper….

.

#29 jess on 09.21.12 at 10:20 pm

…perhaps he should look back and see what happens when and why the jobless rebell.

THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
The decade preceding the depression had been a boom time for American business.
National income rose from about $60 billion in 1922 to $87 billion in 1929, and by June of 1929 the index of industrial production reached its highest point ever
(Bernstein, 1970, 54, 251). For the nation as a whole prosperity had never seemed so assured.
These were not nearly such good years for many workers and farmers,however. Rising productivity and profits in the twenties were largely the result of
increasing mechanization rather than the expansion of the labor force. Meanwhile depressed farm prices (the result of overproduction stimulated by heavy immigration earlier in the century, followed by the demand for food during World War I when the United States was feeding its allies) were forcing millions of people off the land and to the cities. The resulting labor surplus meant that for the first time in the American experience, prosperity was accompanied by continuing high unemployment throughout the decade (Lescohier and Brandeis, 137-151). The labor surplus also accounts for the fact that wages remained relatively fixed, while profits soared. Moreover, some industries, particularly mining and textiles were in a slump
throughout the decade, and these workers suffered sharp wage cuts. But the hardships of particular groups remained submerged, because the people who bore them were subdued by the aura of prosperity that symbolized the era. These were self-evidently
good times in America; anyone who really wanted to work could ostensibly earn a livelihood…

The Unemployed Workers’ Movement
By Frances Fox Piven and Richard Cloward.
This is chapter 2 from their book Poor People’s Movements: Why They Succeed,
How They Fail. (New York: Vantage Books, 1979).

http://www.prole.info/pamphlets/unemployed30s.pdf

#30 Bo Xilai on 09.21.12 at 10:20 pm

Garth, just watched the piece on CTV… It was the last item of the newscast, but kept on using teasers during the extros to commercials about your predictions on Vancouver real estate…

BTW, they superimposed red devil horns on your head during your interview.

Then again, RE/Max is one of their big sponsors.

#31 phinny on 09.21.12 at 10:21 pm

Didja know donkeys will fight off a pack of brush wolves to protect a flock of sheep? They’ll fight off wolves and coyotes, both.

Betcha didn’t…

#32 Phil Indablanque on 09.21.12 at 10:21 pm

Hey Garth, Maybe someday your boy can play in the Big Leagues.

#33 DM in C on 09.21.12 at 10:21 pm

Calgary is still delusion — this ‘fixer upper’ in our hood with most of the flooring missing, the basement wrecked and all the appliances gone is listed as a ‘opportunity’ for $417k. Yeah, an opportunity to mortgage yourself. This is under our 3x income metric and there’s no way we’d consider it. It’s four houses away from an unremediated grow op that has been sitting empty for 2+ years, and the bank wouldn’t let it go for less than 368k. So much for the ‘in demand’ area of Tuscany. Let them rot.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12415589&PidKey=-321813708

#34 Mike on 09.21.12 at 10:22 pm

The truth about real estate will reach the masses in three stages:

First it is ridiculed.

Second it is violently opposed.

Third, accepted as self evident.

Unfortunately as we ridiculed the ‘sub prime’ mess in the USA we were busy doing the exact same thing here. Only worse :(

#35 NKVD Black Raven on 09.21.12 at 10:25 pm

Can we have that Jason dude’s email address. We will send SMERSH.

#36 sam on 09.21.12 at 10:26 pm

From the VCI blog, never noticed this about Tsur Title it’s actually funny how many times real estate shows up.

Bo Xilai Says:

Just saw Tsur Somerville on CTV slagging Garth Turner…

Here’s his real title:

Associate Professor
Real Estate Foundation Professorship in Real Estate Finance Director, UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate

How many times can you cram “REAL ESTATE” in a title?

I wish commentators like him would have to wear a NASCAR-style jacket showing his sponsors – RE/Max, Concord Pacific, Polygon, Concert Properties, Royal Lepage.

#37 Nodebt on 09.21.12 at 10:26 pm

Hey Garth, I was born in 1974, and my dad always tells me about the early 80’s when housing and interest rates went in the toilet! It could happen again! Why couldn’t it Jason ? Jason is probably balls deep in debt and denial ! Garth what’s ur donkeys name? My donkeys name is hummer!! Hahaha

#38 bono on 09.21.12 at 10:29 pm

Garth, you should put a link to your video interview

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/20/bc-housing-bubble-garth-turner.html

#39 Fleabitten Monkey on 09.21.12 at 10:30 pm

“Jason from Vancouver” – I see about 10 people every hour around metro van who could easily be this guy. No wonder the perception is that Vancouver is delusional and has an attitude.

#40 Fartweezel on 09.21.12 at 10:30 pm

So what happens if it even goes beyond 40%?

#41 Old Man on 09.21.12 at 10:32 pm

I don’t know about the donkeys, but for those living in Toronto tune in to CFMJ 640 AM @ 1:00 AM for a comfort show to pass the sleepless night. An expert will be discussing werewolves, banshees, vampires, and other creatures that roam the night for 2 hours or so. Next week they may talk about the dockeys and goats, but am not sure.

#42 Neil on 09.21.12 at 10:33 pm

The simple fact is that the REAL reason for the decline in real estate is your blog Garth. Bad Garth! Jason, being the intelligent and insightful chap he is, has seen through your evil plan to singlehandedly destroy Canadian real estate. What’s next? Will you unleash your secret army of Amazons against us? Garth your evil knows no bounds!

#43 Mel on 09.21.12 at 10:38 pm

Dear Garth:

Thank you once again for standing up for the ‘truth’.

I know you must have a big steel helmet on your head by now, to protect you from ‘denials’ who abound in this country.

Reason why people respond angry is because they have too much invested in their houses. It is there where most of their wealth is, never mind it is built only on wishfull thinking.

Nevertherless, they are scared that your speaking out will make their wishfull thinking turn into nightmare.

Keep talking Garth, there are still souls left who could be saved from making a bad financial decesion.

#44 Maxamillion on 09.21.12 at 10:44 pm

You should publish all the emails your receive in a book called: Dear Garth you SOB. It would be a big seller.

#45 squidly77 on 09.21.12 at 10:45 pm

Remember this about Calgary. All average prices for the month of June.

SFH 2007 $525,000. 5 year fixed @ 7.4%.
SFH 2012 $449,000. 5 year fixed @2.99%
Condo 2007 $337,000.
Condo 2012 $281,000.

When it comes to the housing bust up, Calgary’s in 3rd place and way ahead of the rest of the country, who’s 2nd ? Edmonton, and who’s first ? If I’m not mistaken it’s the in-between in the sandwich, Red Deer. In other words, Alberta’s crashed hard already while it is only just beginning everywhere else.

Oh yeah, I know all about the hate mail thingy. Funny thing is, I have always gotten a kinda sick kick out of them, especially when knowing that I have been bang on right all along.

The self proclaimed real estate experts, AKA realtors, have gotten it all wrong in Alberta. As if they ever cared.

#46 JT on 09.21.12 at 10:46 pm

Ha, ha ha, that was so funny. These guys must be screaming all the way to the mental hospital. Jason, thanks for the Friday night laugh.

#47 eagle eyes on 09.21.12 at 10:46 pm

Believe it or not, there are still some foolish buyers out there, even in delusional Richmond who will pay $1.6m for a 40 ft lot. Jason from Vancouver may catch one of them if he waits long enough, then pounces. Oh yes, he can play with his donkey in the meantime.

#48 AprilNewwest on 09.21.12 at 10:49 pm

Obviously James is extremely worried as either his income is being threatened if he’s a realtor, or he’s scared stiff of realizing his own assets are depreciating.
With reference to Garth’s post, that reporter may have been prompted to say “… all the economist out here….” Garth is not the only person that has been warning of a RE decline. That reporter needs to do some research.

#49 squidly77 on 09.21.12 at 10:53 pm

SFH 2007 should have said, $506,000. Either way prices are way down. Its gonna be a nasty crash.

#50 TNT on 09.21.12 at 10:59 pm

Jason

This is where the ignorance is bliss thing craps the bed.

#51 Sea Wave on 09.21.12 at 11:12 pm

Gandhi said it best:

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

“Jason from Vancouver” is clearly in the fightin’ stage.

Only one stage to go.

#52 polecat on 09.21.12 at 11:13 pm

HEH HEH, I moved away 14 years ago, came back for aliling family, road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Hit with a huge tax to CRA higher utilities by 4 times the rate out west. Did buy a little fixer upper for 153 grand because it was actually cheaper than renting, in Halifax regional municipality. What happened here, wages do not support it, only debt, I have seen it first hand by family and friends, nuts! Yes, I did buy, economics, 2 times my income and lots of land to grow a garden and erect a windmill, not totally off the grid yet but, people, we are a small minority, let’s make it a majority. Bartering and underground economy, follow me.

#53 Smoking Man on 09.21.12 at 11:14 pm

DELETED

#54 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 09.21.12 at 11:20 pm

Housing is the most manipulated market in the world

The Canadian government created and fuelled this Housing Bubble. It also points to a CBC documentary about the manipulation of the government by real estate developers. Marc Muzzo, a home developer and one of the richest people in Canada, testified that bribing politicians is standard practise.

Broadcasted on CBC is the inquiry into the corruption of the Quebec government by the construction industry. They questioned a police office from Ontario, who explained that the Mafia is very prevalent in Ontario. The Mafia is heavily involved in the construction and real estate industry. The police officer explained that there is public corruption in Ontario as well. In fact, there has to be public corruption in order for the Mafia to operate.

This Housing Bubble is all well and good, if you’re a baby boomer who bought 10-20 years ago. However, this is only another way that the younger generation got screwed.

#55 earlybird on 09.21.12 at 11:24 pm

Omg….hilarious Mr Turner!! Its hard to be objective when your income depends on the opposite of recent stats..poor guy…

#56 boston man on 09.21.12 at 11:26 pm

All bubbles burst. This one will too. Don’t have to be brilliant to see that house prices went straight up for many years, while adult children can’t afford to move out. Kinda obvious…. no?

Prices are too high – and I own a house, so don’t think I’m on the sidelines trying to bash others. Any rational person can see it for what it is: A HUGE BUBBLE.

#57 Jim Hawthorne on 09.21.12 at 11:30 pm

ah…. The epiphany approaches…

It’s okay Garth…. Donkeys need love, too…

Turn out the lights on the way out, will you?

#58 squidly77 on 09.21.12 at 11:33 pm

One more thing, when looking at Calgary home prices do not forget about the 16% compounded inflation that has occurred since 2007. In essence you could cite Calgary SFH prices @ $387,000 in 2012 dollars.

The Calgary realtors shim sham ponzi scam has unraveled, and many Calgarians have been harmed greatly.

#59 squidly77 on 09.21.12 at 11:34 pm

One more thing, when looking at Calgary home prices do not forget about the 16% compounded inflation that has occurred since 2007. In essence you could cite Calgary SFH prices @ $387,000 in 2007 dollars.

The Calgary realtors shim sham ponzi scam has unraveled, and many Calgarians have been harmed greatly

#60 Ayn Rand Army on 09.21.12 at 11:34 pm

Anyone want to hear some Christmas music ? I got my accordion out and have been brushing up. I sing too.

Nice letter Garth, how do you like being popular? When you gonna post some of the nasty steamy womens’ sex letters?

I that the right punctuation? womens’

#61 PermaBear on 09.21.12 at 11:35 pm

Great job on the National last night, Garth. You seemed to be the most credible of all and made the most sense.

#62 prairieperson on 09.21.12 at 11:35 pm

You keep mentioning Victoria being toast along with Vancouver. We get the great price drop info on Van and environs but not about Victoria. I was outon the peninsual today and saw a few for sale signs, nothing abnormal for this time of year, plus four sold signs on waterfront property. Not a rep sample, of course. Any chance of getting some facts re price drops in Victoria. Alberta seems tokeep prices up here but when it tanks that will stop. Mind you, there is a house just down the street thathas been sitting empty for 18 months. Good neighbourhood so it is surprising. Hope it doesn’t turn into a gro op.

#63 TurnerNation on 09.21.12 at 11:38 pm

I believe the media is leading 6pm newscasts with “climate change” scares in order to prep our minds for the coming “Carbon taxes”. And another group of financial elites yet will clean up with the trading of this derivative product.
Predictive programming.

Think of it. Electricity. In existance commercially for, what, 150 years now? And they’re telling us the only way to get hydro to us is via a system requiring another 20% fee hike? Really? After 150 years of “progress”?
Or, are companies like Fortis (dividend payer) cleaning up. A false economy.

Yes, communte to work. First, pay the tire tax, A/C tax, environmental recovery tax, road tax, gas tax, carbon tax, property tax (it’s for the roads?), license plate tax, drivers license fee; tax on car insurance. Ain’t freedom grand. Repeat this cycle of taxes for all of our “freedoms”.

#64 Sea Wave on 09.21.12 at 11:40 pm

Vancouver residents by far lead the internet in Google searches for “housing bubble”:

http://tinyurl.com/8eutfbq

Vancouver has been number 1 since 2010 … but didn’t even make the list in 2009 … representative of shifting public opinion … increasing awareness, changing beliefs about what may be driving house price increases.

#65 Charles Ponzi on 09.21.12 at 11:45 pm

Keep spreading the good news. House prices are falling.

#66 jack frost on 09.21.12 at 11:47 pm

garth why does anybody bother wit you ! your so full of shit!!

#67 Scott in Gibsons on 09.21.12 at 11:57 pm

Before the bubble burst it was OK to be blunt and insensitive when describing the coming crash. Real estate was making everyone richer and they could laugh you off.

Now that the pain is arriving, you go from being an annoying mosquito to a wasp down the back of their shirts. Don’t expect to be handled with kid gloves anymore.

…..or maybe you could tald less about the now-obvious crash, and more about how average people can navigate this storm. Then you go from “I told you so” to “I can help”

#68 peace on 09.21.12 at 11:57 pm

Oh no, you spelled ‘that word’ with a little g (last line).

A month or so ago, there were several indignant comments over that very grammatical oversight. I’d missed noticing the original entry that had triggered the reaction, but it was somewhere on this blog. (Sorry, I can’t bring myself to call it a pathetic blog tonight, even though I know that’s what it is, in a good way. Oops, guess I just did!)

Personally, I believe that using little g is a thoughtful and inclusive gesture that honours and pays respect to every deity and faith, including the one that insists on a big G.

No comment on all the rest, Garth, because I agree with every word you right, er, write. I prefer to be more of a blog’n dog reader, until the day eventually comes when I have something more meaningful to contribute than a comment on style and grammar.

(Jason, for you and your writing style, I’m biting my tongue to the point of pain.)

Ach, my tongue won’t be still — so let me just say, some grammar errors may be endearing, but when you’re trying to make a point, nothing shoots down your credibility more than using terrible grammar and a very rude, insulting tone. (Just look at the difference between SM when he’s sober and not!)

Truly, if you want to be heard, you have to learn how to speak and write. And it helps to read a whole lot, listen and chew it all over in your mind, think about what you’re hearing, from this angle and that. That’s where I’m at.

Who knows, Jason, maybe one day you and I both will have something meaningful to contribute.

~peace (Happy International Peace Day, all!)

#69 Devore on 09.21.12 at 11:59 pm

This is how confidence works.

When you have something that you didn’t necessarily gain justly, but lucked into, or won (the lottery), or were given, you’re always very risk averse and defensive about it. Then someone or something shows up to possibly upset your daily order, you angrily lash out and attack it. Because if you lose what you have, you’re not at all certain you’ll be able to re-gain it all back

Contrast it to someone who’s worked hard to obtain everything they have, they will be much more confident. They’ll take risks readily. When a threat shows up, they take it in stride, like a challenge. It’s an opportunity. Because they know they will be able to work their way back. Done it once, can do it again.

Now you know why Vancouver has a reputation for being such a friendly city.

#70 disciple on 09.22.12 at 12:01 am

50% reductions everywhere with up to 80% on the violent reversion to the mean. My prediction isn’t looking too far off now, is it? Wages, benefits, pensions, extra-curricular activities, the arts, babies… all sacrificed at the altar of the parasite financial class who fashion themselves gods.

#71 Sea Wave on 09.22.12 at 12:05 am

Over many years Robert Shiller and colleagues have repeatedly polled residents of Boston, Milwaukee, LA, and San Fran regarding their perceptions of what factors are currently driving house price changes.

(From WHAT HAVE THEY BEEN THINKING?
HOME BUYER BEHAVIOR IN HOT AND COLD MARKETS
by Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Anne Thompson … Sept. 2012)

It’s interesting to see all the parallels with Vancouver home buyers’ rationalizations for recent price increases:

“The common themes in 2004 were strongly emphasizing a “shortage of houses,” a large number of
“immigrants,” “scarcity of land,” “lack of building space,” “too many people,” “the desire to
have it all,” that the city “is expensive and always will be.” Only occasionally did they mention
in 2004 that affordability might be an issue.”

“By 2006, the optimistic themes of 2004 were still in
evidence, but less prevalent. The most common theme in 2006 was “rising interest rates.” Also
common were the words “high prices” and “no equivalent increase in wages,” “overvalued
homes” and “Numerous newspaper & media articles speculating on/or reporting on slowing
sales” and “Astronomical price spikes of previous 2 years simply cannot be sustained.

“Why was there such a dramatic increase in these notions? There seems to have been,
between 2004 and 2006, an emergence of an idea, in media accounts, that there are such things
as bubbles and that the bubble might be expected to burst”

Canadian sentiment would appear to be lagging the US experience by about 6 years … same general path leading to same general outcome.

#72 Max Torque on 09.22.12 at 12:05 am

“Sales are wobbling most places outside of Calgary”. Don’t believe the hype and spin of the of the realtors/MSM in Calgary. From my nightly walk about in the ‘hood, homes are sitting on the market for months (many since early spring) and if you watch the listings you can see the price drops. Many homes are just taken off the market.

#73 Roy on 09.22.12 at 12:07 am

25% price drop on this one sold in Richmond.
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/09/and-walls-they-came-tumbling-down.html

#74 Esmerelda Fitzmonster on 09.22.12 at 12:08 am

a boom with just a little hiccup…
like a kitten thats sneezed…
awwwwww….

#75 Devore on 09.22.12 at 12:10 am

#20 Dragonslayer

Gold up again today. Suckers rally or the beginning of a trend? The 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day line which is a strong technical signal.

Huh? Looks kinda flat to me.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

#76 Tired of Saskatoon on 09.22.12 at 12:18 am

Garth,

People like this are trying to blame their mistake on you. Blaming you for they perceived that you will cause this mayhem but in reality it was something that is anticipated considering the reality was there is an asset inflation in this country.

It was not the salary but it was the debt that fueled all this growth. It was temporary and not for the long term as somewhere between the lines this irrational exuberance will stop as the growth of debt will going to hit its tipping point. As the growth of debt dwindles also the prices of assets will decrease specifically Real Estate that fuels all this irrationality in todays society.

Me and my wife had saved and living below our means for years and still even though we are very quite we are attacked by people who thinks that we are stupid for not getting on with this debt gravy train. How much more you Garth, you are just trying to warn and educate the people about what to do with their financial life and how to avoid the debt trap. They said It was Different Here. I don’t think so. I’d seen several times in my life time. They are all saying the same It was Different Here.

This place needs a lethal dose of reality.

IMHO

#77 Esmerelda Fitzmonster on 09.22.12 at 12:19 am

Like so many others, I had become a slave

to the IKEA nesting instinct.

“Uh, yes. I’d like to order the Erica Pekkary dust ruffles.”

Operator: Please hold.

If I saw something clever

like a little coffee table in the shape of a yin-yang,

I had to have it.

The Klipske personal office unit,

the Hovetrekke home exer-bike,

or theJohannshamn sofa

with the Strinne green stripe pattern.

Even the Rizlampa wire lamps

of environmentally friendly unbleached paper.

I’d flip through catalogs and wonder:

What kind of dining set defines me as a person?

I had it all.

Even the glass dishes

with tiny bubbles and imperfections.

http://tinyurl.com/cw2pflq

#78 Al on 09.22.12 at 12:20 am

Wow Jason really makes Vancouver look bad. Dont get me wrong, Vancouver is and will always be beautiful with lots of lovely people. To think the rest of the country thinks Calgary is redneck, Jason its not, stay in Vancouver we dont need homophobes.
It is not the end of a person to lose money on a house, to go broke or even to hit rock bottom. It just means you have nothing to lose, and its time to make some changes. You would be surprised what going broke can teach a person, starting with some anger management.

#79 Cowpie on 09.22.12 at 12:25 am

#33 – DM in C:

Wow, Tuscany just gets better and better doesn’t it? The cell phone tower and high voltage powerlines really enhance the grow ops there.

Friends of mine had a beautiful 7 yr old home in Tuscany Glen with a mountain view, granite, stainless, hardwood everything, glammed up with interior design up the wazoo. Took them 9 months to sell, they sweated bullets and nearly went mental, price reduced to sell it. Considered themselves lucky to get out of there when they did. Like most here, they felt the need to move further out to the hottest suburb every ten yrs.

#80 Tony on 09.22.12 at 12:31 am

Re: #4 Mark W on 09.21.12 at 9:33 pm

Winnipeg will turn into Winnipig when all the bozos who bought in the last several years all list at the same time to try to stave off personal bankruptcy from a declining housing market.

#81 Tim on 09.22.12 at 12:33 am

“If immigration could save real estate, Miami would never have crashed 45%. — Garth”

How many eastern European scientists and technical specialists moved to Miami? How many Asian entrepreneurs moved to Miami? These are the types that are moving to Toronto–not people from countries with little in the way of education or career prospects.

#82 Cowpie on 09.22.12 at 12:39 am

#36 sam:

“Just saw Tsur Somerville on CTV slagging Garth Turner…

Here’s his real title:

Associate Professor
Real Estate Foundation Professorship in Real Estate Finance Director, UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate”

—————————————————————
Is that even real? Can we all make one of those up too?

Cowpie, P.iled h.igher D.eeper

Associate Professor
Real Equestrian Foundation Professorship in Bovine Estate Director, UCOW Centre for Urban Economics and Raw Milk

#83 blase on 09.22.12 at 12:46 am

This is an interesting clip from an interview with Peter Lynch of Fidelity from years ago. I think it is a good example of how the average person thinks about what is a good investment, ie. follow the crowd. Wonder what people are talking about in cocktail parties these days?

“Talk about the change in ’86-87.

Well, I remember in my career you’d say to somebody you worked in the investment business. They’d say, “That’s interesting. Do you sail? What do you think of the Celtics?” I mean it would just go right to the next subject. If you told them you were a prison guard, they would have been interested. They would have had some interest in that subject, but if you said you were in the investment business, they said, “Oh, terrific. Do your children go to school?” It just went right to the next subject. You could have been a leper, you know, and been much more interesting. So that was sort of the attitude in the ’60s and ’70s.

As the market started to heat up, you’d say you were an investor, “Oh, that’s interesting. Are there any stocks you’re buying?” And then people would listen not avidly. They’d think about it. But then as the ’80s piled on, they started writing things down. So I remember people would really take an interest if you were in the investment business, saying “What do you like?” And then it turned and I remember the final page of the chapter would be you’d be at a party and everybody would be talking about stocks. And then people would recommend stocks to me. And then I remember not only that, but the stocks would go up. I’d look in the paper and I’d notice they’d go up in the next three months. And then you’ve done the full cycle of the speculative cycle that people hate stocks, they despised, they don’t want to hear anything about ’em, now they’re buying everything and cab drivers are recommending stocks. So that was sort of the cycle I remember going through from the ’60s and early ’70s all the way to ’87.”

#84 This is Wonderland on 09.22.12 at 12:50 am

And yet you come out and say something like that. You should have said your a homosexual as well, and that you suck the DELETED of donkeys. You look like a donkey hybird of some kind. What kind are you?
—————————————————————–

I just can’t understand why a 14 year old would take realestate so personally.

I mean, that couldn’t have been a grown man who wrote that to you…….wright?

#85 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.22.12 at 12:51 am


Nice to see you’ve set yourself up to be a fox in the henhouse. I wager that when all is said and done, Jason and you can have a beer, Jason can cry in his, and you can console him by drinking yours!

#198 Herb on 09.21.12 at 8:51 pm — Hello Herb. I pulled these — Here, here, here and here. I checked the police stuff only, nothing else, ‘tho this — Playing the system is what a lot of individuals do, whether public or private and a lot of them get away with it, and Bogus 4Closures HUD paid a bln. or so. It’s epidemic.
*
Tax Havens are becoming a problem; Osborne’s woe Austerity doesn’t work. Find something else; Obomba and China plus Putin to Obomba and here; Cdn. Friday links; Walmart Hiring frenzy for holiday rush; Unemployment up in half the states; We’re all Lab Rats of Bernanke and Carney; Gold Didn’t Barrick say a few weeks ago there was a shortage of it? Decline of the middle class.

Spain’s Nuts and Bernanke’s Balls; Ontario looking at two new super funds; Gold Sure, if you gimme some; Roadkill or Overkill? Germany says Spain doesn’t need sovereign bailout; Deutsche Bank Oil plunging next year, but what about gas prices? Ray Dalio and the rise of another Hitler; Chinese Hurdles; Stuff There’s too much junk in the world; Uruguay Dope is now run by the govt.
*
Led Zeppelin Apparently, Robert Plant has had a change of heart; 6:11 clip Migrating North Pole, which means the South Pole is also moving; Zombiefreaks They’re coming to take us away ha ha; 0:27 clip Trucking hell and pix of other things; Giraffe rage, and Slow rage Another version of road rage; Bond . . . James Bond Still crazy after all these years; #31 phinny — Similar to this? 0:29 clip Pig saves goat from drowning; RVing in style; 25:37 clip Electric comets in an electric universe; Syria Russia and China probably had something to do with this and, no doubt, will tick Noddin’ Yahoo off; Obluddyhell This is what we didn’t know; Light upon light Interesting figures; China and Diaoyu islands; The Four Horseman of the CIApocalypse; 0:14 clip New description of hay fever; Battle of the Jumbos Boeing vs. Airbus; Natural Healing for anxiety and panic disorders.

#86 Tony on 09.22.12 at 12:54 am

Re: #20 Dragonslayer on 09.21.12 at 9:55 pm

Biggest sucker’s rally ever on record. This coming Monday everything should tank. I still think gold and silver will act as a hedge against inflation meaning gold should drop back to the 200 dollar U.S. level and silver back to the one dollar and fifty cent level. The world will sink into a deflationary abyss.

#87 Need Sleep on 09.22.12 at 12:56 am

I’ve been watching MLS and Comfree listings closely in my Winnipeg neighbourhood for months. Lately the listings are filling up with houses that are not selling, empty homes, and suddenly a high % of homes that are being relisted. I’ve seen a few homes sell quickly but those appear to be the ones that are priced right.

I’ve seen a few homes sit and not sell and get pulled off MLS and Comfree only to appear in rental ads. One condo that didn’t sell has now dropped their rental price and still can’t fill it. Noticed one listing last week state right off the bat in their description that offers would be accepted any time and if the owner didn’t sell in a few weeks they would rent out the place. Price had already been reduced. Also seeing lots of reductions in the MLS matrix.

Co-workers are friends are still only hearing about the overbids still and seem oblivious the housing market changing in Winnipeg. When I mention that salaries never increased enough to support the increase in prices, everyone here is stuck on that argument that prices in Winnipeg were so low to start with that they needed to get priced this high to match the rest of the country.

#88 Cowpie on 09.22.12 at 12:56 am

#45 squidly77:

“Remember this about Calgary. All average prices for the month of June.

SFH 2007 $525,000. 5 year fixed @ 7.4%.
SFH 2012 $449,000. 5 year fixed @2.99%
Condo 2007 $337,000.
Condo 2012 $281,000.

When it comes to the housing bust up, Calgary’s in 3rd place and way ahead of the rest of the country, who’s 2nd ? Edmonton, and who’s first ? If I’m not mistaken it’s the in-between in the sandwich, Red Deer. In other words, Alberta’s crashed hard already while it is only just beginning everywhere else.

The self proclaimed real estate experts, AKA realtors, have gotten it all wrong in Alberta. As if they ever cared.”
——————————————————————

They care, all right. They are human too, and they need to live and put gas in the bimmer. But they now have the smell of desperation about them that makes cowpies seem delightful in contrast. If there was truly no slowdown, they wouldn’t be protesting so loudly. We wouldn’t even hear from them at all, because they’d be too busy to bother.

Can speak from experience, been looking at RE for several years here. Realtors are getting lean and hungry, sweaty palms with all their spare time to kill. High end stuff just SITS here. Some have been 5 yrs coming on and off the market! I smell manure here, and it ain’t just me.

#89 Crash Calaway on 09.22.12 at 1:00 am

Garth you sure rattled that Jason from Vancouver’s cage but apparently not hard enough to wake him up.
And for a guy who claims to know so much about Donkey anatomy… he can’t save his own ass from what’s happening.
Many Vancouver property owners are headed for financial ruin.

#90 Old Man on 09.22.12 at 1:04 am

Beach Girl – I checked around and how about a woman who is considered one of the best in Canada and is Editor in Chief of the Estates, Trusts, and Pension Journal which is a Canadian Law publication? She is the leading expert in Wills, and is a partner in a highend Toronto law firm called McMillan, and her name is Marni Whitaker; this one is for you in my opinion and your search is over, as she has the knowledge and experience.

#91 RC on 09.22.12 at 1:19 am

Looks like our buddy Phil (from last night’s interview) just chipped another 200G’s off his Kits project. That makes him off 25+%. Chinese don’t buy Kits…..everyone knows that.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

#92 GUnit on 09.22.12 at 1:31 am

Keep up the good work Garth! If Jason was so confident on the market going up he wouldn’t take the time to write you such magical poetry. Alas, he knows he made the wrong choice and is scared sh&$less.

#93 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 09.22.12 at 1:38 am

The beach:

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2012/08/royan.html

We bought a nice acreage in Bearspaw, just outside of Calgary in 2003. Were going to build a nice Mansion on it, gym, theatre and all. Both self employed, could not get that 500K mortgage anywhere.
So we rented for a while, a long while really.
Then finally, sold the lot summer 2011, sold the business and bought a nice townhouse in Europe.

Small but fine. No Mortgage. Finally separated wants from needs. Took me a while.
Lock and leave, one hour from the beach, 3 hours from Paris, door to door. 34 and sunny is the forecast for this Sunday .

#94 wes coast on 09.22.12 at 1:43 am

We are supposed to be living in some enlightened age, but I’ve never seen such fury over any ideas that oppose whatever the marketing machine has told people. Its as if marketing has told us we are all free thinkers and that’s why we think we are – but we’re not. Anyhow, that hate mail just shows how stupid people are.

PS. That CBC clip I felt was very biased. It was always Garth, then a counter point from that goof from MAC marketing. Why give the good that has profited on this housing orgy the last word – as if he is an unbiased opinion? His whole livelyhood is on the line – of course he thinks Vancouver is a store of wealth (what a joke). Anyhow, glad to see you on TV Garth but CBC didn’t do your message any justice.

#95 wes coast on 09.22.12 at 1:45 am

Correction – my last post where I say ‘ Why give the good …’ Should read ‘ Why give the GOOF’. Damn auto correct

#96 Johnny D on 09.22.12 at 2:02 am

Garth,

CTV actually asked “Why are you the only one saying these things when all the economists out here say real estate is doing just fine?”???

I guess they never heard of every other economist that says otherwise. Most notably Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller home price index. Even Flaherty and Carney have said that real estate is over heated in Canada. CTV, that is just pitiful.

#97 Red Tarded on 09.22.12 at 3:51 am

Hey Disciple (loco) question for you: who is the actor who plays Garth Turner?

I think it could be same guy who plays Peter Schiff

#98 KELLY on 09.22.12 at 4:11 am

Hi Grath, I read your blog faithfully but am starting to wonder if you realize that Canada does NOT end in Nova Scotia!! Yet again you start in the west in Vancouver then proceed across the country to end in Nova Scotia…the last time I look at the map NEWFOUNDLAND was part of Canada. Any chance you might have an opinion on the real estate market here?

#99 B P O E $-$ # 1 on 09.22.12 at 4:18 am

Thats right folks high rollers in Vancouver are lining up to sell their homes as word on the block is pricing are in a free fall with no end in site. Prices have went up sky high and cannot continue anymore, a long fall down another 25% percent to go. So now you know i admit it all the house rich Vancouverites are cashing in cha ching, anyone buying in the next 1 to 2 yrs is going to catch the falling sword and get hurt

#100 leopotato on 09.22.12 at 4:34 am

I was talking to a realtor in Fredericton yesterday. It’s different there. Biggest military base and it’s a government town guarantee prices will only go up. Being from BC my thoughts immediately went Victoria where my BIL took forever to sell his place at a loss. Nobody in New Brunswick even has a flipping job! It’s full of old people who can’t sell their 70 yr old houses. All the young people are in Alberta or living at home because they either work at a call centre or Walmart!

#101 Astute Poverty on 09.22.12 at 5:28 am

The five stages of grief are:

1-Denial-“this can’t be happening to me”, looking for the former spouse in familia places, or if it is death, setting the table for the person or acting as if they are still in living there. No crying. Not accepting or even acknowledging the loss.

2-Anger-“why me?”, feelings of wanting to fight back or get even with spouse of divorce, for death, anger at the deceased, blaming them for leaving.

3-Bargaining-bargaining often takes place before the loss. Attempting to make deals with the spouse who is leaving, or attempting to make deals with God to stop or change the loss. Begging, wishing, praying for them to come back.

4-Depression-overwhelming feelings of hopelessness, frustration, bitterness, self pity, mourning loss of person as well as the hopes, dreams and plans for the future. Feeling lack of control, feeling numb. Perhaps feeling suicidal.

5-Acceptance-there is a difference between resignation and acceptance. You have to accept the loss, not just try to bear it quietly. Realization that it takes two to make or break a marriage. Realization that the person is gone (in death) that it is not their fault, they didn’t leave you on purpose. (even in cases of suicide, often the deceased person, was not in their right frame of mind) Finding the good that can come out of the pain of loss, finding comfort and healing. Our goals turn toward personal growth. Stay with fond memories of person.

#102 Ric in gta on 09.22.12 at 6:18 am

Here is a short history lesson
Back in the 80’s a huge R/E company was building 1000’s
of homes a year. As a contractor 90 percent of my business
was with this company, by 1987 I decided to cut off dealing with the company.
I felt uneasy with my income from one company.
( my source of income had expanded to many new customers)
I still had some contacts with the people at head office.
This R/E company with all its inside information on the real estate market,
bought raw land in 1988 at the peak of the market. They kept saying “we are different then the other
developers” By the time 1990 rolled around trouble was in the air. This huge multimillion company filed for bankruptcy.
will history repeat?

#103 pathcontrolmonk on 09.22.12 at 6:29 am

Garth, I imagined you with a more baritone voice

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2282034757/

#104 Joe on 09.22.12 at 6:58 am

Philip Chan simply lied and the CBC didn’t verify his claims. In the interview Chan says he couldn’t see his property dropping more than 12% but by Sept. 9th (before the interview) he had actually dropped the price by 23%. And since when does HST apply to a house which is being lived in?

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V969843

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 09.22.12 at 7:15 am

Too many canadians have gone cuckoo over real estate and politically correct causes. A voluntary restoration of sanity is not possible given the current economic and political system. Therefore I think we need some extra ordinary natural and or man made disasters to bring canadians to their senses. Something rather severe and long lasting that gives people the idea that personal survival is more important than real estate values.
Then again everyone thought Noah was crazy until it started to rain and then it was too late. A 40% drop in real estate prices is too little and too late and will teach canadians nothing.

#106 Ken R on 09.22.12 at 7:18 am

All this talk about donkeys; yet everyone behaves like sheep. This country is deprived of critical thinkers.

#107 Buy? Curious? on 09.22.12 at 7:38 am

Garth, when are we going to see some foreclosures? You’ve shown stats from the US showing that we’re on the same trajectory, but I’ve yet to see people being thrown out on the street. What gives?

#108 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.22.12 at 7:49 am

More proof for my earlier note on Canadians being the most irrational in the world:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/family-quandary-renovate-or-pack-up-and-move/article4559964/

42-yr-old couple with $750k house debate whether or not to do $500k reno (and they only have a monthly net income of $7,528 — well off, but not someone with half a million bucks lying around).

#109 yorel on 09.22.12 at 7:49 am

“Canada has freedom, safety, education, healthcare, and opportunities?

Good Lord – WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN THE LAST 6/7 YEARS?”
So, when are you moving to somewhere better?

#110 John on 09.22.12 at 7:58 am

GB wrote:

“Yep, living in New Brunswick (Fredericton)…I see houses just sitting on the market like never before. No place can escape economic fundamentals.”
—–

Exactly. At some point this must happen. This discussion hasn’t happened yet.

#111 Linda Pearson on 09.22.12 at 7:59 am

#60Ayn Rand Army on 09.21.12 at 11:34 pm

I that the right punctuation? womens’

No.

#112 Mr Buyer on 09.22.12 at 9:14 am

#81 Tim on 09.22.12 at 12:33 am
“If immigration could save real estate, Miami would never have crashed 45%. — Garth”

How many eastern European scientists and technical specialists moved to Miami? How many Asian entrepreneurs moved to Miami? These are the types that are moving to Toronto–not people from countries with little in the way of education or career prospects.
…………………………………………………
I think the question should be how many have moved to TO and how many have landed jobs and how many have bought houses or more importantly are buying houses. Really, how many?

#113 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.22.12 at 9:21 am

@ #81 Tim on 09.22.12 at 12:33 am
“If immigration could save real estate, Miami would never have crashed 45%. — Garth”

How many eastern European scientists and technical specialists moved to Miami? How many Asian entrepreneurs moved to Miami? These are the types that are moving to Toronto–not people from countries with little in the way of education or career prospects.

Really? All European scientists and technicians? No nannys/nurses from the Philippines, or anyone from India or China?

Canadian immigration is 60% from Asia, and less than 20% from Europe:
http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/figures/c2-eng.cfm

#114 Ret on 09.22.12 at 10:05 am

As long as all three levels of government keep borrowing more money to give us what we want, we can all live in peace and tranquility in the fantasy land of Denial.

RE is only one piece, albeit a large one, of the dream that Canadians are now living. Party on Canada!

#115 kam on 09.22.12 at 10:58 am

@ #81 Tim on 09.22.12 at 12:33 am
Canadian Immigrants:
#1:Phillipines
#2: China
#3:India

Rich people from India will not come to Canada as an immigrant.Most of the immigrant from India are middle class indians and they moved to Toronto for economic reasons.They are not fools to put their money on over-inflated real estate rather most of them make money by selling real estate.
Majority of new immigrants need atleast 5 year time to settle down in Canada.If they are qualified,they have to upgrade their skills which costs them a lot of money. All new immigrants do not bring thousands of $$ to buy real estate.

#116 Tony on 09.22.12 at 11:07 am

Re: #108 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.22.12 at 7:49 am

Seeing they’re from Alberta they better list the house now and in about thirteen years time they should finally get an offer albeit a lowball offer. Many people in Alberta die of old age while their house is still for sale.

#117 Daisy Mae on 09.22.12 at 11:19 am

#48 AprilNewwest: “With reference to Garth’s post, that reporter may have been prompted to say “… all the economist out here….” Garth is not the only person that has been warning of a RE decline. That reporter needs to do some research.”

************************

You have that right. The media reports every day now — finally — about the Canadian housing crisis, so what is she talking about?

So many still in denial….

#118 Dr. WAYNE on 09.22.12 at 11:23 am

Reading Jason’s love note to you Garth I’m reminded of two important quotes:

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” -Abraham Lincoln

“Life is tough, but it’s tougher when you’re stupid.” –John Wayne

#119 maxx on 09.22.12 at 11:24 am

#42 Neil on 09.21.12 at 10:33 pm

Hee-hee!! Cute one Neil.

Garth, I’ll bet that some of those abusive gems are sent from internet cafés……..

#120 Silver on 09.22.12 at 11:25 am

Can’t wait to see what a drop does to Vancouver City Councils overspent and over leveraged Property Tax base as actual sale value fall below assessments… and people want adjustments to reflect that.

oh right B.C. Assheads Assessors have promised you your property had more value… after all… you were taxed on it’s inflated value…
now who’s going to pay for the city officials inflated pay increases…
bloody idiots…

Silver

#121 Old Man on 09.22.12 at 11:29 am

Beach Girl – Just one more comment because have had experience in these matters, and found your situation as a challenge. I recall there were two heirs that you had in mine – both sons, and with what little you stated saw red flags, so you have a summer home too, and perhaps a commercial apartment complex, as I can’t remember it all.

Now have good news and bad news, so first the bad news, as on a final disposition you will have big tax problems, so why lose capital to the Tax Man? The good news is that Marni Whitaker just so happens to be a leading expert in taxation, and specializes in minimizing the tax impact on death, but hurry as she is getting close to a retirement age.

I suspect she will want to make a complex twist with your Estate to formulate a new vehicle to beat the Tax Man, but she is the best, and forget the rest; kick that banker under the bus for now, as he was going to execute things for you, oh yes, as he had your best interests at heart lol. I highly recommend that you call and see her at McMillan, as woman to woman seems good to me, and you owe my a future dinner gal. :) I will accept a coffee and a donut at Tims.

#122 Hearrt on 09.22.12 at 11:32 am

Good Morning Garth, Victoria is definitely tanking. I have several houses (typical 3 bedroom houses in Greater Victoria) on my watch list and this morning I got updates that about 10 of them were knocking 15-20k off of their asking price. (Which were already at assessed value or below which is also lower than things have been in the past year). For the realtor associations to call this a “balanced” market is just such hogwash.

#123 TheBigLebowski on 09.22.12 at 11:36 am

Speaking of Donkeynomics.
Lets touch on the recent announcement that the Fed made regarding its 40 bill a month indefinite printing press fiasco. The Fed, along with the lapdog mainstream media which only job is to keep us in the dark, would have us believe this is all to jumpstart the economy. Well, sadly as usual its the opposite that is true. In reality the Fed and the big over levered banks have made another back room incestuous deal. The Fed has agreed to give these banks the 40 bill a month, in essence working towards buying up all the toxic and underwater mortgages which are on the bank’s balance sheets. In tern the banks have agreed to use the new 40 bill, lever it 10 to 1 and buy U.S treasuries. Did you get that? In the end the Fed will own every piece of mortgaged real estate in the United states, and they will all be bundled into the derivative market . The implications for this are dire at best. The dollar will be essentially made valueless, and the U.S taxpayer will be on the hook for all the levered debt. And when inflation is off the charts, and the U.S consumer is screaming bloody murder, these same criminal bankers which just bankrupted the middle class will taa daa, introduce a new currency system which they have total control over. Isn’t the real world grand? So as the average person focuses on daily trivia and distraction, this criminal syndicate hidden behind our governments, which are also fully compromised , work busily to bankrupt the financial system. So the next time you spend your nights watching American Idol , Survivor, and the latest hockey game, know there is a sea change happening and the average person is either too dumbed down or too wrapped up in having fun to even give a hoot.

#124 Twitchy on 09.22.12 at 11:40 am

Hi,

I registered for your speaking event this morning before reading on a previous post that it was sold out. The e-mail which I received gave me the location of the event. Has seating been increased or has it actualy been sold out? Will you be holding any other events on TO during the next 6 months or so? My in-laws and husband realy need to go to one…

Thank you for your time,
Sarah

The event is full, but experience shows a certain percentage of people who reserve seats find themselves unable to attend when the date arrives. We will make all efforts to accommodate everyone who takes the time to come. — Garth

#125 Weedeater on 09.22.12 at 11:42 am

In 1981 I bought a condo being sold under power of sale by a couple walking away from the 19.5% mortgage. The neighbours were aghast I got it so cheap because it decreased the value of their condo. Yes, when one’s neighbour sells his/her home for dirt, it becomes obvious the impact of market value on your “investment”. I sold five years later for twice what I paid during the run up in the “greed is good” 80s. Then saw 20% of our equity evaporate on the next house (had to move–job transfer) in the early 90s. Young people don’t understand this stuff can happen because it hasn’t happened to them or their peers. When they tell their grandkids about losing all or x% of their equity in 2013, those kids will laugh and say, “it’s different now”.

I feel sorry for those who borrowed to put money down; they maybe have 1-2% of the current value of their home in equity and it’s going to vanish. It’s not the decline in the value that hurts so much; it’s the decline is sucked right out of your equity. A concept difficult to wrap your mind around until your buy/sell transactions straddle a correction.

#126 Form Man on 09.22.12 at 11:51 am

#120 silver

I am continually amazed at how many people do not understand how the mill rate works. Fluctuating property values will have little effect on property taxes………

The mill rate is adjusted annually to account for exactly this. Do not expect your property taxes to go down with an assessed value drop.

#127 Nemesis on 09.22.12 at 12:00 pm

“Mostly because I love donkeys. In a good way.” – Hon. GT

Nothing to be ashamed of OldPol… In Roy’sUniverse Trigger unquestionably trumped Dale. Every time.

http://youtu.be/hkg2C_EIea0

#128 Old Man on 09.22.12 at 12:00 pm

A male donkey is a jackass; a contemptiby foolish person or stupid person; dolt; or a blockhead ass, and this none other than our Canadian ” Caesar ” aka PM.

#129 maxx on 09.22.12 at 12:06 pm

#82 Cowpie on 09.22.12 at 12:39 am

Hot damn, the dawgs are comedic today! Too right- how can anyone take any of these titles seriously, let alone respectfully, given the shamalamadingdong BS reasoning behind our daily diet of shills.
Scratch just a wee bit below the surface of that staged credential and there, without exception is a big,fat, wide-open maw just waiting for your gullible dollars. Good grief, all that’s missing is gold embossing!!

#130 Frank on 09.22.12 at 12:23 pm

If the predictions of a crash come to pass, at least you warned people and gave them advice on how to make money through other investments. We all have a choice.

#131 In GARTH Almighty not God we Trust on 09.22.12 at 12:24 pm

“Because they’re wrong,” I said. “Feel free to paint me as a lone wolf if you want, I don’t care. But let’s see what happens.”

They are indeed wrong and you are indeed the lone wolf of reason crying out in the HELOC infested wasteland of Canada, denouncer of parliamentarian peckerheads and peckerettes, former MINISTER OF NATIONAL REVENUE, Harley riding contrarian badass, Hummer cruising iconoclast, bearded mystic oracle, financial tea leaf reader without equal, NYT bestselling author, suave and charismatic speaker to packed out auditoriums, Amazon adored, protected and bathed, main star of the FASTGFBDCParty, crystal ball gazing financial prognosticator without equal and all round jolly good fellow who will prove the economists wrong and realturds wrong. When the SHTF your enemies will say in unison, “truly there was a prophet among us”.

#132 John on 09.22.12 at 12:27 pm

Weedeater wrote:

” It’s not the decline in the value that hurts so much; it’s the decline is sucked right out of your equity. A concept difficult to wrap your mind around until your buy/sell transactions straddle a correction.”
—–

The point is well taken, but why would you think we are about to straddle a “correction”. The corrections you spoke of in the 80’s and 90’s all point to a storyline which is not headed for another “correction”. Correct to what? The run-up wasn’t “equity”. If it was equity…now we’re in a correction. Derivatives based speculation doesn’t lead to a correction. It leads to a paradigm shift. For a lot of reasons which make for an interesting debate.

The debate about this reality is uncomfortable. Just as a debate about “buying in” at the top of a “market” is a reality people want to avoid.

So? Nothing has changed. And understanding has not increased.

#133 Country Girl on 09.22.12 at 12:30 pm

#48 AprilNewwest
With reference to Garth’s post, that reporter may have been prompted to say “… all the economist out here….” Garth is not the only person that has been warning of a RE decline. That reporter needs to do some research.

I agree. Especially because in Canada it’s supposedly illegal to lie in the news.

#134 John on 09.22.12 at 12:32 pm

The Big Lebowski wrote:

“The Fed has agreed to give these banks the 40 bill a month, in essence working towards buying up all the toxic and underwater mortgages which are on the bank’s balance sheets. In tern the banks have agreed to use the new 40 bill, lever it 10 to 1 and buy U.S treasuries. Did you get that? ”
———

Nobody wants to talk about Canadian real estate: The global ponzi. Isn’t that the issue? Is there another issue.

Let’s hear the argument. C’mon. Checkmate is checkmate.

#135 Victor on 09.22.12 at 12:32 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/22/maybe-a-second-job-would-help/

Scott Hannah had a client once, up to his eyeballs in debt. Nothing new about that. Canadians have reached records of level of household debt.

The executive director of the Vancouver-based Credit Counselling Society concedes the advice he gives is usually the same — get yourself a budget, chop your expenses and pay down debt.

This client was different. He found himself up early every morning not really doing much before he went to his day job.

“I said, ‘Have you ever thought about a paper route?’ ” says Mr. Hannah, who was greeted with surprise from his client for the suggestion.

But he took the advice. And next thing you know, he was running around delivering papers every morning, increasing his monthly income by $800 — and cutting into his debt.

The expense side gets all the attention in personal finance but what boosting your revenue? Who says the answer to all your problems is not to make more money?

================

Awash in debt? No problem – get a paper route!

#136 Country Girl on 09.22.12 at 12:41 pm

Garth,
You deserve the gold star for creative, insightful, entertaining and educational writing.

Instead of giving Jason a gold star, you could give him permission to kiss your a#@ (donkey, that is).

#137 Old Man on 09.22.12 at 12:45 pm

There will be huge power of sales coming up in the next few years, and lots of this junk will be held by Law Firms who pumped out private investor money; not for good equity lending, but for fees, and all will be lost. So, maybe some bargains can be picked up with the Law Firms to unload condo’s in 416 at discount prices – just a thought!

#138 chaser on 09.22.12 at 12:49 pm

Donkeynomics. Yeah, easy on the donkey. Garth needs his donkey to help him with his economic analysis.

He’s also vengeful. — Garth

#139 jess on 09.22.12 at 1:00 pm

rent $625 – $795 utilities included

16552 NE 84th Court
Redmond, WA 15662
http://sustainableincityliving.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=146

fair companies.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uwz0xewTS0I

#140 Country Girl on 09.22.12 at 1:04 pm

#81 Tim
You’re right about the large number of quality professionals immigrating to Toronto. I’ve met many of them; the cab drivers.

#141 John Prine on 09.22.12 at 1:08 pm

Interesting, all these different opinions about where things are going.

Victoria, not including surrounding municipalities, residential sales completed. Currently 694 active listings.

June 4 sales
July 10 sales
August 32 sales
Sept. to date 50 sales

Richmond, 2,681 active residential listings.

June 253 sales
July 218 sales
August 180 sales
Sept to date 133 sales

Pretty much says it all……..

#142 DM in C on 09.22.12 at 1:10 pm

Cowpie: high voltage powerlines

They’ve taken down one set along 10 mile coulee — seems the backyard playground equipment along that line was arcing. Great place to be. Now those houses can watch the suckers buying into the Watermark development slip and slide all winter down the hill into the only entrance/exit to the community. Awesome planning there.

#143 Mark from Victoria on 09.22.12 at 1:13 pm

Donkeys with Ostrich Syndrome…
I have for 20 years been marketing real estate in Western Canada while meticulously tracking advertising and sales results. The numbers don’t lie – we’re in a world of donkey doodoo. I have been an optimist all my life, however I can no longer bury my head in the sands of Victoria’s glistening beaches. This real estate donkey is now a renter and proud of it. I am paying down my debt at lighting speed and will soon be debt free. Thank you Garth for being the one, shining beacon in a quagmire-sea of blindfolded donkeys. The proof is in the numbers. Don’t be an ass. Take the blinders off all you befuddled donkeys. Or risk drowning in the sea of disbelief. Eee-Awww.

#144 Ayn Rand Army on 09.22.12 at 1:17 pm

#111 Linda Pearson on 09.22.12 at 7:59 am

#60Ayn Rand Army on 09.21.12 at 11:34 pm

I that the right punctuation? womens’

No.
—–
Yes right, women is already plural of woman. so multiple sexy letters from women would simply be women’s.

Is that right?

So Garth, when you gonna post some of the nasty steamy women’s sex letters?

Do I get a star?

#145 Mister Obvious on 09.22.12 at 1:18 pm

#67 Scott in Gibsons

“Now that the pain is arriving, you go from being an annoying mosquito to a wasp down the back of their shirts. Don’t expect to be handled with kid gloves anymore.”
—————————

That’s rich. Right now I’m racking my brain to recall a time when Garth Turner was ever “handled with kid gloves”. I strongly suspect his inbox has always contained a high percentage of hate mail.

“…..or maybe you could tald less about the now-obvious crash, and more about how average people can navigate this storm.”

You are completely misguided. The main thrust of this blog (not to mention Garth’s books) is to help the average man in the street avoid financial stupidity.

#146 Roial1 on 09.22.12 at 1:19 pm

#22Chinstrap on 09.21.12 at 9:59 pm

They are coming from South Africa,China, Russia, Iran, Brazil… have money and love what Toronto and Canada has to offer. They are loving the fact that they can come to Canada where they have: freedom, safety, education, healthcare, and opportunities..

Yup! BUT! For how long? This is what Harpo is out to destroy.
Part of his promise that “You won’t recognise this country when I’m done”.

#147 TurnerNation on 09.22.12 at 1:22 pm

#54NewWorldPartyDotOrg

Y’know, in my area (King W, Toronto) I’ve seen ~10 new condos – built over the past few years. I only saw one certain excavagting/hauling company ever, digging the foundations. Maybe their offer was too good to refuse.
Let us dig your foundations or we’ll make you a part of the foundations….

A few years ago former police chief Bill McCormick’s son (a cop also) was swept up in a corruption probe.
In unrelated news, the mayor allowed a police budget increase this year. Cuts everywhere else. These poor, underpaid cops (highest paid in Canada). This city stinks and I refuse to own property here, ever.

#148 Ms bboomer on 09.22.12 at 1:32 pm

I like the suggestion of you writing a book on emails you receive. The best would be,of course, the heart-warming ones that you so eloquently reply to (love-based). Jason’s would be in the chapter of rude funny emails (fear-based). We live in interesting times, yet fear versus love has been with us since our beginning. Your heart and head are in the right place Garth.

#149 Hawk on 09.22.12 at 1:39 pm

I notice that a lot of people who post links and large price declines inevitably reference houses / mansions in Vancouver that seem anywhere in the $1.3 Million to $ 2 million range.

I believe it, ……..but does that mean that single detached houses in metropolitan Toronto in the $500K – $600K should lose 40% soon or more?

High end houses have fewer buyers because as a % of the total population only 5 – 10 % of Canadians or investors can afford so called “Mc-Mansions”. Thus there are few or no buyers in a downturn. But a 500K home is affordable by a large chunk of the population, so how likely is it that the mid-low tier will lose 30% or more?

#150 Canadian Watchdog on 09.22.12 at 1:40 pm

#133 John

I’ve argued many times that our situation is nothing like the 1980s. Today we have homeowners trying to pay interest bearing debt while the money they pay with (savings) is being devalued.

What we’re more likely to eventually see is homeowners defaulting not on their mortgage payments, but by the rising cost of living.

Speaking of rising prices, check out Procter and Gamble’s latest price gouging, or content reduction.

Toothpaste
Deodorant
Shampoo

It’s the little changes people ignore that pillages income. Pay attention.

#151 Ayn Rand Army on 09.22.12 at 1:43 pm

#145 Roial1 on 09.22.12 at 1:19 pm

#22Chinstrap on 09.21.12 at 9:59 pm

They are coming from South Africa,China, Russia, Iran, Brazil… have money and love what Toronto and Canada has to offer. They are loving the fact that they can come to Canada where they have: freedom, safety, education, healthcare, and opportunities..

Yup! BUT! For how long? This is what Harpo is out to destroy.
Part of his promise that “You won’t recognise this country when I’m done”.

——-
I hope Harper succeeds on this point. It’s fundamental.

Free stuff from government is the scourge of rational economic functioning. Only a free market has the proper incentives to sustain rising quality at lower costs. Socialized serveries all have perverse incentives. Hence our crumbling deathcare system.

Nothing free is free. It’s the MOST expensive system with little value you can get. Same with education.

#152 leo on 09.22.12 at 1:49 pm

Garth, you are not a lone wolf. Robert Shiller agrees with you. Not a lot of people are willing/courageous enough to be the messenger and get shot at. http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/21/canada-heading-into-a-slow-motion-version-of-the-u-s-housing-bust-robert-shiller/

#153 Mark W on 09.22.12 at 1:55 pm

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/98285–vancouver-s-video-game-industry-is-slowly-disappearing

“Sky-high commercial rents in Vancouver aren’t helping, either. ”

Go east young man, go east!

#154 Old Man on 09.22.12 at 2:00 pm

I am looking at an 8 plex in Rosedale for $1.8 million with a huge cashflow; not a reno, and all done up with the best, so my small mind thinks $1.8 million divided by 8 = $225,000 per unit with a net yield of 12%, and two units are double storied with a balcony and have have the bells that ring with fireplaces, and all the good stuff. It could be mine; yes there are bargains with AAA tenants, as location is all, just a few minutes drive to Bloor St. West of Yonge to Yorkville. I might buy it.

#155 cynically on 09.22.12 at 2:14 pm

#81 Tim – We’re still waiting for you to answer your own question. How many eastern European scientists, technical specialists and Asian entrepreneurs moved to Toronto – one, two, six, 20, 100, 100,000? Come on give us a figure which will explain the bubble in a nutshell and did a comparable number of them move to Vancouver and the other cities experiencing the common RE problem today? I doubt it. Recent years’ immigration could be a minor factor but hardly explains the whole problem. Lust, greed and horniness, as Garth likes to call it, are perhaps greater factors.

#156 Aussie Roy on 09.22.12 at 2:14 pm

Aussie Update

Aussie Realtors hit new low

Selling your shaved abs and bleached fangers to get the female house-horny crowd gyrating in their Lazy-Boys while advancing ‘Phallocentrist’ concepts of men..

http://bubblepedia.net.au/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=996

#157 Daisy Mae on 09.22.12 at 2:29 pm

#66jack frost — “garth why does anybody bother wit you ! your so full of shit!!”

************************

LOL You’re sure taking a beating today! But…you have tough skin, Garth.

People just can’t handle the truth….

#158 Junius on 09.22.12 at 2:33 pm

#150 Ayn Rand Army,

You said, “Only a free market has the proper incentives to sustain rising quality at lower costs.”

Really? Then how do you explain the negative correlation between less regulation and more global free trade and a rise in deficits and a reduction in wages?

You have bought the big lie – hook, line and sinker.

#159 Daisy Mae on 09.22.12 at 2:36 pm

#67 Scott: “…..or maybe you could tald less about the now-obvious crash, and more about how average people can navigate this storm. Then you go from “I told you so” to “I can help”

************************

Garth has been telling us for literally YEARS how to ‘navigate this storm’. He finds it exasperating when people don’t listen. But he continues to try to educate. What more do you want from him? His advise is FREE, as well.

#160 jess on 09.22.12 at 2:40 pm

http://www.economist.com/node/21563286

Shell companies
Launderers Anonymous
A study highlights how easy it is to set up untraceable companies
Sep 22nd 2012 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

#161 Ken R on 09.22.12 at 2:52 pm

#149Canadian Watchdog

I’m a P&G shareholder, stocks up, dividend is safe- what’s the problem?

#162 Bill Gable on 09.22.12 at 2:54 pm

Mr. Turner – you handled yourself with grace and style on the tube.

Grreat work.

People here in Vancouver – are taking for sale signs DOWN. At least here in the west end.

I also see some delusional pricing. A co-op next to where the drunks like to sit – $469,000 – $450 a month main. fees. You don’t even own it – it’s a co-op.

Not everyone has received the message, I guess.

#163 willworkforpickles on 09.22.12 at 3:31 pm

Dream never dies just the dreamer.
40%…..? try 70% off the top before the re bloodbath has ended and prices bottom on throw away real estate nation wide in a few years.

#164 Triplenet on 09.22.12 at 3:37 pm

Jason the Realtor refers to you as an ass and #130 continually chooses to kiss your ass.
Real estate is certainly interesting isn’t it. Alot of “do diligence”.

I turn the other cheek. — Garth

#165 willworkforpickles on 09.22.12 at 4:18 pm

Nothing behind the Canadian re boom but speculative greed . Speculative greed in a cold land and were back to the cliffs edge . The early 90s were a 100 meter drop off a big hill. The lemmings will be going over the edge into the grand canyon this time around. Few ever learn from history . The panic and the pain will now be much worse. How can 90% of new homeowners with their over inflated equity levels borrowed against and maxed out, credit cards maxed out, car payments due, ghastly slew of insurance payments to be made and a host of 20 to 30 other monthly expenses needing to be paid cope without falling behind and gradually losing their minds. How many can keep their heads up high enough dealing endlessly with this level of toxic stress.
Financially maxed out to the breaking point and beyond being the new norm is no way to live and go on for very long. All of this and where house prices where they are, unemployment rising and wages dropping the pressure new home buyers have taken upon themselves ignoring the insanity of it all is the recipe for the disaster that unavoidably awaits many dead ahead.

#166 willworkforpickles on 09.22.12 at 4:34 pm

I forgot to say .. ..steep mortgages to be paid as well on the stairway to hell.

#167 Mark from Victoria on 09.22.12 at 4:36 pm

WHEN THE YUAN HITS THE VAN…
CANMORE’S REALTY COULD BE VANCOUVER’S FUTURE….

12 years ago Canmore’s real estate market began to heat up in a big way via investors and real estate buyers from the UK, Germany and the US – homes that sold in the late 90’s for $10-$15 per sq. ft. suddenly were fetching $30-$40 sq. ft. while climbing higher and higher, eventually maxing out at a high of $45-$60 per sq. ft. in places like Canmore’s Silvertip – then the ceiling caved in – foreign buyers dried up like fish out of water – now the 200 or so realtors in the Banff/Canmore/Bow Valley are turning in their keys to their Jags and Bimmers for used Chevys. 1 bedroom condos that once sold like hotcakes for $300k+ now are listing for $160’s and still aren’t moving. I know Canmore is not Vancouver, but the signals coming from Asia aren’t good – when the Asian buyers dry up how many 1.5million dollar Vancouver specials do you think will be selling? A big fat NADDA. Can’t wait to buy one for 40% less when the Yuan Hits The Van.

#168 Questioning Calgary stats on 09.22.12 at 4:50 pm

#143 Mark from Victoria

Have you checked out househuntvictoria.blogspot.com?

You might have some fun over there.

#169 Humpty Dumpty on 09.22.12 at 5:00 pm

Donkeynomics 101…..

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss flash crashes, reputation woes on the U.S. exchanges and sheep screaming at all the fraud

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lkYP1emX8I&feature=player_embedded#!

Sheep and donkeys make good company….

#170 Duane Silveira on 09.22.12 at 5:03 pm

#62 Im from Victoria as well. Moved to a new street in Langford 6 months ago. At the time there was about 3 houses on my street for sale. Since then another 4 or so have been added. NONE of them have sold. This tells a little different story than yours. If i were one of these sellers id be a little concerned at this point. By the way…i rent and have never been more glad.

#171 TRT on 09.22.12 at 5:08 pm

#140 Country Girl

You’d be surprised what cab drivers make. Here in Vancouver, plates swap hands for $800,000.

Drivers easily make $4000-$5000 per month, declare very little (so no taxes), so also full children benefits, no MSP, etc.. Some collect EI while driving. Plus spouse; if they work falls in the lowest tax bracket. Plus tax free mortgage helper rental income.

So Who is the smart professional?

#172 Mark W on 09.22.12 at 5:17 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/21/living/small-homes-irpt/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1

Tiny homes hit the big city.

#173 An Importation in Quebec on 09.22.12 at 5:35 pm

What F taketh F can giveth back. They can put back zero down and 40 years mortgages to throttle the demand. Risky bet by two arrogant financiers.

#174 jess on 09.22.12 at 5:37 pm

169 Humpty Dumpty

skimming used to be illegal

#175 Old Man on 09.22.12 at 6:36 pm

The last bust was mild compared to what is coming, and wait until all the fraud and corruption hits the fan, as did last time. There will be discovered phony appraisal reports, over financed property, and the lawsuits will go on for years with massive losses.

#176 GB on 09.22.12 at 6:55 pm

Loepotato wrote:

“I was talking to a realtor in Fredericton yesterday. It’s different there. Biggest military base and it’s a government town guarantee prices will only go up.”

That realtor is a dolt. Here is the facts on Fredericton:

Indeed a big military base which has expanded over the past 10 years. However, with the end of military expansion post Afghanistan, fewer military personel are posted to the training base here thus…check the MLS listing in the sub town of Oromocto. Military menbers who are either retired of posted out…CANNOT sell.

The impact on Fredericton will be similiar and the results are already starting to show.

It means nothing nowadays to be in a “government town”. In fact…with frozen wages and escalating job insecurity it’s not a good thing to be a “government town”.

The fredericton realtor is desperate for the good times to persist. It’s ain’t gonna happen.

#177 brainsail on 09.22.12 at 7:13 pm

A TFSA question…

We have been living in Texas for a number of years and are trying to help my 90 some year old mother that lives in Edmonton with her finances. In a conversation today she said she has had a TFSA account since inception that her bank recommended.

She asked me what is the purpose a TFSA account. She trades stocks by writing checks from her TFSA account but still has to pay taxes on the gains.

What is she doing wrong? TIA

#178 mikef on 09.22.12 at 7:29 pm

All Garthy all the time

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2282034757/?page=3

#179 Daisy Mae on 09.22.12 at 7:31 pm

#118 Dr. WAYNE: “Reading Jason’s love note to you Garth I’m reminded of two important quotes:

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” -Abraham Lincoln

“Life is tough, but it’s tougher when you’re stupid.” –John Wayne”

********************

There’s another one.

“If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.”

#180 45north on 09.22.12 at 7:40 pm

John: Derivatives based speculation doesn’t lead to a correction. It leads to a paradigm shift.

exactly my feeling, it’s not so much that the price of houses goes up and then goes down, it’s more that the integrity of social institutions is destroyed and cynicism rises to unbelievable levels. Yet, in the people around me, I see integrity.

#181 Daisy Mae on 09.22.12 at 7:50 pm

131In GARTH Almighty not God we Trust: “Because they’re wrong,” I said. “Feel free to paint me as a lone wolf if you want, I don’t care. But let’s see what happens.”

They are indeed wrong and you are indeed the lone wolf of reason crying out in the HELOC infested wasteland of Canada….”

****************

Well, simply put, Garth is HONEST. And everyone else — media, realtors, government, et al — are so full of s**t their eyes are brown. That’s it in a nutshell….

#182 Herb on 09.22.12 at 8:04 pm

#151 Ayn Rand Army

and where, except in the Right Wing Book of Propaganda Talking Points, is it written that government services are free?

Just another “mistruth” to be repeated mindlessly ad infinitum.

#183 Bobby on 09.22.12 at 8:05 pm

For #62 and #170,

Just bought a condo on the Peninsula. Been on the market on and off over a year. Bought it for $100 k less than they were asking last year. Yes, the market is starting to tank.
Have been following a house in Saanichton. Just relisted with a big price drop. Empty, but could be a good rental at the right price.
There are going to be some great buys out there. Just wait!

#184 chumpay le chump on 09.22.12 at 8:13 pm

#171

dude, cab drives do not make $4000-5000 a month in vancouver. Cab OWNERS may make that much, but driving someone else’s cab? no way-

#185 Not 1st on 09.22.12 at 8:19 pm

Garth, you claim to be tech savvy, why not do a video or podcast of your presentation across the internet so as to get max exposure? or better yet, next time CBC corners you for a comments, get them to broadcast your seminar across the country. Shout it from the rafters and make scum like Jason crawl back in his hole.

#186 John on 09.22.12 at 8:29 pm

Daisy Mae wrote:

“Well, simply put, Garth is HONEST. And everyone else — media, realtors, government, et al — are so full of s**t their eyes are brown. That’s it in a nutshell….”
——-

I think your making a mistake by putting personalities above principles, although we all do it. There’s a strong need for trusting others before accepting information.

“Honesty” has to be an irrelevant term, because it’s unimportant. Especially in the subject at hand. What’s important is to uncover bias and denial. To examine skme of the facts, as best we can.

Those that follow the liquidity trail inside a bank door have just gone in a circle and are no further ahead. The ponzi giveth, and the ponzi taketh away. That’s a rule. This time they’re not in the housing market, but the muppets they fleeced think they are.

Liquid or not, the landscape is not how it’s being painted. Like it or not, risk has to be finally thrown up on the table. It hasn’t been discussed, just avoided.

To say that the fact the real issues aren’t accepted for discussion yet due to dishonesty would be as erroneous as saying the “no debt, liquidity, diversify” mantra is honest.

Honesty and dishonesty are not involved. A priority right now might be getting into the “slow lean” toward discussing what’s going on in “Canadian” real estate right now.

Many are in various stages of awareness of what’s going on. But mostly nobody’s really talking about it yet.

#187 kreditanstalt on 09.22.12 at 8:32 pm

Tee-hee!!! LOL…!

Do you really think the man-in-the-street continues to believe all is well?

Here, Port Alberni, last few months, I’ve seen:

No customers buying RVs at the dealerships.
A slow summer tourist season.
More people shopping at Walmart and No-Frills (I do!)
One neighbour’s house for sale for months now.
Another’s price reduced twice: 275K-263K-248K sold
Welfare-recipient apartment shortage.
Vacant stores vacant for MONTHS, still so…
Vacant stores in nearly every block.
A customer slowdown at (expensive) Safeway & QF.
Fishing industry slowdown?
Distinctly fewer tourists.
ZERO American-plate RVs on the roads.
Ferry traffic way down.
Fast food patronage seems off a bit…
Offers of credit keep coming in mail
Gold buying shows…”unwanted(!) gold”

All informal I admit. But a distinct slowdown IMO. So how can anyone still maintain that the economy is healthy?

And Parksville-Qualicum flogging of new tract homes is going VERY slowly…one new development has been ‘selling’ for two years+ already…some desperation here?

#188 John on 09.22.12 at 8:44 pm

45 North wrote:

“it’s more that the integrity of social institutions is destroyed and cynicism rises to unbelievable levels. Yet, in the people around me, I see integrity.”
—–

You’re referring to the derivatives scam that is Canadian real estate.

And you’re referring to the people around you having integrity. I don’t live in Canada but experience the same thing. It’s not that we’re better people…it’s just that “absolute power corrupts absolutely”. A guy in the gym working for JP Morgan said that to me yesterday….”there’s a lot of power involved”. A cool guy, doing his job.

Imagine how the cartel players feel. It’s like there’s no law, no rules, no resistence…and they justify their gambling because “it’s all a game anyway”.

That…and the exploding fortunes…anyone would be in danger of losing their “integrity”. Me..you..our circle. It’s human nature

Anyway…this sure is the backdrop to the “Canadian” real estate “market”. Casino chip heaven in the international club. That’s the deal.

#189 Victoria Tea Party on 09.22.12 at 8:48 pm

JASON AND HIS ANATOMICAL “ARGONAUTS”

Man, that was some set of badly scripted epithets there, Mr. Jason.

St. Garth of Lions Gate Bridge was fulsome in his extreme display of generosity in publishing those hurtful words in the first instance, insulting donkeys everywhere!

Where’s the “human” rights police?

Jason, sign up for some remedial English grammar classes, perhaps a side order of some good stout English poetry from the 19th Century would also be appropriate.

Real estate is simply another investment, really it is. It’s because we “live” inside this investment, so-called, that we put so much importance towards it.

Would that also be the case if “they” still issued share certificates to investors in the stock markets? Perhaps those shorn lambs would be a little less sanguine about getting solidly screwed in bad market turns, never mind the real esate deluge upcoming, needless to say.

MEANWHILE…

Following a potential dust-up soon in the Middle East there could be a run on glow-in-the-dark donkeys.

I can see the hustler now: “Thanks to the wonders of atomic technology you really CAN find your ass with both hands in the dark!”

Jason sounds more like a sheep person to me.

#190 Thomas on 09.22.12 at 9:59 pm

Jason from Vancouver: your psychology is so transparent. You’re obviously terrified and you should be.

Garth: you’re awesome.

#191 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.22.12 at 10:00 pm

#63 TurnerNation — Accurate post. Fortunately, I don’t drive, smoke, belch, fart, pick my nose, drink or do any of those manly things anymore!

#70 disciple — Give or take a few percentage points and the length of time this will play out over, you’re pretty much bang on.

#78 Al — “It just means you have nothing to lose, and its time to make some changes.” — Sometimes that’s the best place to start. Check out Richard Branson. He was a self-made millionaire in his teens, broke in his teens and rebounded again in his early 20s.

#93 THE CELIAC HUSBAND — “Small but fine. No Mortgage. Finally separated wants from needs. Took me a while.” — Well done! You are no longer a sheeple, as you are fully liberated!

#118 Dr. WAYNE — Agreed. It is hard, nay impossible, to fix stupid!

#143 Mark from Victoria — “This real estate donkey is now a renter and proud of it.” — Another freed! It is a really great feeling to not be part of the giant ponzi scheme.

#192 Ray on 09.22.12 at 10:05 pm

I started following your blog about a month ago, and have since bought two of your books . I didn’t realize you rode a Harley !! . Really?!! . Goldwings are far better engineered.

I like noise and fumes. — Garth

#193 Smoking Man on 09.22.12 at 10:15 pm

Ever since my UFO sighting back in May, been scanning the web for info.

This is the best UFO site I have found so far.

http://www.anonymousfo.com/

People we are not alone.

#194 Nicholas on 09.22.12 at 11:11 pm

Hi there Garth,

I was just wondering how long you think it will take for prices in the Real Estate market in B.C. (particularily Vancouver and the Okanagan) to come down substantially as you think they will?

Cheers Nick

#195 AACI Home-Dog on 09.22.12 at 11:27 pm

#140 Country Girl

You’d be surprised what cab drivers make. Here in Vancouver, plates swap hands for $800,000.

Drivers easily make $4000-$5000 per month, declare very little (so no taxes), so also full children benefit

I call bs on that one…who with 800k would buy a job like that ?
and certainly no bank would finance it.

#196 My Head Hurts on 09.22.12 at 11:36 pm

After reading the comments posted here every day…

I often wonder why most of the people who leave the insulting comments have no concept of grammer and spelling?

It really is a trend…

Just noticing and wondering…

BTW your the best their is garth!

#197 analysis of ctv report on 09.22.12 at 11:41 pm

Here is an interesting analysis of CTV’s report on Vancouver housing prices (with Garth taking the lead position)

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.967138

There is a link to the actual CTV report at the end of the piece.

#198 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 12:17 am

#140 Country Girl – checked it out, and much to my surprise your correct about the $800,000, as found a detailed article about it all. What a driver makes depends on his gross vs net, but on a good night can earn $700 – interesting!

#199 analysis of ctv report on 09.23.12 at 1:00 am

*Correction*

Here is the analysis – http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

The earlier link is to the interview with Garth.

#200 guido on 09.23.12 at 1:33 am

Garth you donkey stop talking trash your wrong about everything . How many suckers got burnt by listening to a donkey like you ?

#201 truth hammer on 09.23.12 at 2:59 am

#171 TRT…..Sorry man….I know from personal experiance having looked at a cab drivers tax return that they do not make $4000-$5000 p/m….not even close. After overhead my guys 1/2 share was $27,000 ..barely minimum wage. You’re right about the plate thought ….it’s insane that a cab license should sell for 3/4’s of a million.

#195 AA….yer right…..these are low end immigrants who have been dropped into Canada from the stone age and have zero ability to work at anything else. The temple bank washes dope proceeds and fronts the cash for the ‘job’ which is in turn paid back to the crime families who launder the dough through the ‘credit union’.

These families will ’employ’ at least four family members driving 24/7 while the girls are sliding cucumbers into cello wrappers. We only import the best from the Punjab as we all know…rocket scientists every one.

Garth…..you’re doing the right thing by telling the truth to the deniers…..these guys are so far in hock that the very idea of a crash as you are alluding to is sending ribbons of hot wet poop shooting down the pantlegs of a million homeowners whose mortgage terms are coming up for refi.

Look at the crap I get for telling it like it is….it ain’t easy being on the right side of things….so hang in there.

#202 truth hammer on 09.23.12 at 3:04 am

#183 Bobby……’The market has started to tank’….and you just bought a condo? Are you expecting a bubble to form around your unit and not depreciate anymore? After all…the market has JUST started to tank…we’re not evn at the beginning of the crash…good luck with your investment plan….care to buy anything else at the top?

#203 a prairie dawg on 09.23.12 at 3:12 am

#177 brainsail

It sounds like she has a normal “cash account” type of brokerage account (taxable gains), and she is withdrawing money from her TFSA to invest in that other account.

She can’t remove TFSA contributions to fund another type of non TFSA account, and expect to avoid the tax repercussions on any gains made.

Most banks steer people to non self-directed TFSA’s, and the choices of investments in those are limited. Also most of the choices in them pay bank staff nice commissions for talking you into them as well.

For the correct usage, you would ideally open a self-directed TFSA account with the banks brokerage division. Then transfer all the cash from the first TFSA into the self-directed one, and do any trading inside the self-directed one. That’s the only place that the gains on trades are considered 100% tax free.

And remember the contribution limits are $5000 per year, since inception. This includes any-and-all TFSA accounts collectively that she may hold. ie: $5000 per person per year, not $5000 per account. Over-contribution penalties are steep too so keep an eye on that aspect.

Hope this helps.

#204 Robert on 09.23.12 at 3:53 am

I have owned 11 homes in my lifetime am 59 years old and am about to become a renter for the first time in the forty years. We have $350,000 cash in the bank and $500,000 in RRSP’s and not one penny of debt. Our 2011 Honda is paid for as is our boat our trailer and my Harley. I earn about 75k per year and plan on working till I am 65, my wife is on full pension next year. We are very nervous about the future and have noticed that the closer we get to retirement the more We cut back on our spending. We used to eat out six or seven times a month and now it is more of a treat at once a month. Outside of our final home purchase I donot anticipate any further high ticket purchases. We live in the okanagan and have been watching a 1500 square foot townhome that was originally listed at $359,000 over three hundred days ago. It has been vacant for the last 90 days and is now priced at $299,000.. I am waiting for one more price reduction then I will offer them $250,000. If we are able to buy it I will put $150,000 down and will pay it off over my last five years of work. This my friends is a glimpse into the mind of just one of the millions of Baby Boomers about to enter retirement and anyone that thinks this demographic is not going to have an impact on the Canadian economy and RE market has to be in total denial. After hearing my friends story and plans it dawned on me that this is exactly what Garth has been warning us all about for many years now..

#205 JimmyAAA on 09.23.12 at 6:05 am

Herb;

There is no hope from NeoCons like Ayn Rand and Truth Hammer. They have learned their lessons well from good old Ron Reagan right up to gentle ol’ Bill O’Reilly.

It doesn’t matter what the facts are. It doesn’t matter what people who actually RESEARCH this stuff think. Just repeat what you think Ad nauseum, and then do it some more. When asked to prove something, just repeat your talking points.

AND this the key.

NEVER NEVER EVER change your mind. You cannot let anything like facts get in the way of your steadfastness. You are not wishy washy, because that is weak. And only strong people deserve to make decisions.

#206 Grantmi on 09.23.12 at 6:43 am

#184 chumpay le chump on 09.22.12 at 8:13 pm
#171

dude, cab drives do not make $4000-5000 a month in vancouver. Cab OWNERS may make that much, but driving someone else’s cab? no way-

And let me guess… And the drivers are all ex brain surgeons, or nuecular scientists from their homeland.

#207 espressobob on 09.23.12 at 7:18 am

#177

A TFSA is a registered savings account, not a chequing account. this link should help.

http://www.tfsa.gc.ca/

Cheers.

#208 Linda Pearson on 09.23.12 at 7:56 am

#196My Head Hurts on 09.22.12 at 11:36 pm
After reading the comments posted here every day…
I often wonder why most of the people who leave the insulting comments have no concept of grammer and spelling? It really is a trend…

and yet, to your comment…
BTW your the best their is garth!

How sad – grammar, syntax and punctuation errors in such a short sentence!

#209 Mr Buyer on 09.23.12 at 8:00 am

On an unrelated but equally important note…Unbelievably two ballet dancers won So You Think You Can Dance…
http://www.fox.com/dance/
I have had my head turned by Asian women/dancers/athletes (figure skating) for over a decade but this dancer Eliana is pure beauty in motion. She has a gorgeous athletic body and she dances exquisitely. Male dancers have had the same impact upon me as male figure skaters (they should be playing hockey) until this dancer Chehon (Keon). This guy is pure power and elegance. His solo dance to get into the top 20 was absolutely stunning. Oh yeah, BUYER BEWARE. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE (AND IT WILL NOT BE FOR A FEW YEARS. Remember 21 straight years of land price decline in Japan).

#210 live within your means on 09.23.12 at 8:09 am

#196 My Head Hurts on 09.22.12 at 11:36 pm
After reading the comments posted here every day…

I often wonder why most of the people who leave the insulting comments have no concept of grammer and spelling?

It really is a trend…

Just noticing and wondering…

BTW your the best their is garth!

……………

I’m assuming you’re being facetious – ‘grammer’ and ‘their’. LOL

#211 brainsail on 09.23.12 at 8:17 am

#202 a prairie dawg

#206 espressobob

Very helpful, thank you!

#212 housedoc on 09.23.12 at 8:25 am

#123 TheBigLebowski
Preach it brother!

#213 Herb on 09.23.12 at 8:49 am

#200 Truth Hammerer,

may I suggest a friendly amendment to your otherwise sensible comment? You’re not ” on the right side of things”. You’re “on the Right side of things”. There is a difference, you know.

#214 John on 09.23.12 at 8:54 am

My Head Hurts wrote:

“After reading the comments posted here every day…

I often wonder why most of the people who leave the insulting comments have no concept of grammer and spelling?

It really is a trend…

Just noticing and wondering…

BTW your the best their is garth!”
——-

I have an answer for this one ( especially since my writing often contains “your” and “their” out of place). Strangely, my grammar is outstanding…and spelling superb. Top 1%. So what gives?

See…”your” only noticing…never wondering. When you’re not a critical thinker, “their” is a tendency to follow the ball and judge those that don’t. Spelling and grammar become extremely important when you’re suffering brain death ( this is Smoking Man’s point).

Your head is going to hurt judging all that free thinking. Unfortunately for you, reality and people are far more important than spelling and grammar. A person who is “uneducated” is unlikely to “notice” what you do, but they wonder a lot. They often don’t trust things like central banks and government. They just aint got the class you do.

Without critical thinking as a focus, you’re lost…with a hurting head. What’s your independent opinion on the causes and effects of the Canadian real estate debacle? You likely do not have one.

Of course, at the end of the post, you threw in a big hug for whoever you consider to be your authority figure of the moment.

Nonsense.

#215 TurnerNation on 09.23.12 at 8:59 am

Go to http://bc.ctvnews.ca/video

At the bottom of page look for :

CTV News Videos
> Latest
> 40% drop in house prices predicted

(our forum host!)

#216 Mr Buyer on 09.23.12 at 9:00 am

You know the first time I saw that picture I was thinking the guy is going to clear everyone no problem but after seeing the picture a few times I noticed he has good air on the front tire but that back tire is cause for concern. Just to simplify this whole mess lets say he is presently at the apex. Then he has about that distance again for his back tire to be at the same height as the edge of the ramp. It looks like his buddy is toast. Lets hope they did a bunch of dry runs and he has been hitting the ramp repeatedly at the same velocity.

#217 Bottoms_Up on 09.23.12 at 9:04 am

#22 Chinstrap on 09.21.12 at 9:59 pm
——————————————-
Let’s say 100,000 immigrants represents 20,000 buyers/real estate sales.

What is 20,000 as a portion of the overall GTA market?

And are immigrants not influenced by supply/demand, rising interest rates, tougher OFSI/mortgage qualifcation rules etc.?

100,000 immigrants is 25,000 families. Stats show about 15% of immigrants buy real estate within the first three years of arrival. That is 3,750 transactions over that period, or about a thousand a year. Not a major influence in a city with 90,000 – 120,000 resales annually. — Garth

#218 TurnerNation on 09.23.12 at 9:04 am

#167Mark from Victoria

Canmore, like Squamish BC, is just a whistle stop alongside the trans canada hwy. No jobs, few attractions. Too far from the major city to be a true bedroom community. I suppose you could commute from either to Vancouver or Calgary, but at 1hr each way in the good weather…
The Squamish Sasquatch has ravaged the area already.

#219 Regan on 09.23.12 at 9:22 am

#154 Old Man – that 8 plex sounds pretty good. Of course, when you buy a property like that you’re also buying yourself a job, of sorts, but if you enjoy the work it’s a great investment. I find too many people don’t have the skills or inclination to manage such a property and thus they haven’t seen the same run-up in pricing. It HAS to be based on cash flow, not emotions.
I’ve looked at a couple of grand old apartment buildings that would make a true mansion for a single family (+ staff) with a good reno, or even a condo conversion – ah, but only if I had a couple of million to make it happen!

#220 Herb on 09.23.12 at 9:27 am

#204 JimmyAAA,

I quite agree, but you can’t let them have their way.

Those jackasses would negate the gains of millenia of civilization and take us back to the Neanderthal days of clubbing each other to get ours, using more sophisticated means, of course. And not because they have to to survive, but because they want to to get more.

They are the real “useful idiots” for the leaders of the Right Wing cause, who only want to maximize their profits, of course.

#221 city slicker on 09.23.12 at 10:27 am

Garth are you saying calgary will be immune to the correction

You wish. — Garth

#222 Daisy Mae on 09.23.12 at 10:30 am

#150 Canadian Watchdog: “It’s the little changes people ignore that pillages income. Pay attention.”

**********************

We notice. Remember when we switched to metric? Prices remained the same but sizes/contents of everything reduced. We’ll experience something similar when our penny disappears and prices are rounded up.

#223 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 10:32 am

#217 Regan – I would throw it into my limited investment company and no hydro bills to pay as all units are metered; not old enough to worry about major capital expenses; and has a nice mortgage to be assume with plenty of term at a good rate. The end figure is not important just the down stroke is needed, and the location will support me raising the rents, so am thinking about it.

#224 a prairie dawg on 09.23.12 at 10:33 am

#205 Grantmi

And let me guess… And the drivers are all ex brain surgeons, or nuecular scientists from their homeland.

– — –

Your answer reminds me of a cartoon I saw years ago. It was a simple black and white sketch of a power plant with a chain link fence around it topped with barbed wire. The sign on the fence read:

No one who says ‘nuculer’ admitted beyond this point.

Well I thought it was funny…

#225 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 10:34 am

Sorry mean’t Regan #219 too early in the morning for me.

#226 Silver on 09.23.12 at 11:13 am

#126 Form Man

If your Property Tax Invoice…sorry I mean Bill paid is not equal to the Actual Bill of Sale Value…

you are either being Stolen from by The Fraudulent Assessment… if the assessment is more/higher than your bill of sale value, the real purchase price.

or You are using other peoples property equity to subsidize your purchase costs. That is if your assessment is less than your purchase price.
You are a welfare bum.
you can’t afford your property.

An Assessment is only necessary to justify a purchase price to the bank. It has no other Lawful standing as no one will back it with a financial guarantee. It is a speculative number.
If it represented “Real Money” the Federal Government would have taxed you on it… for the profits made above the purchase price.
Its fake Paper. Junk.
The “Bill of Sale is Proof and Proves of the Real Value as a Fact. Anything else is a “Fiction”.

It has nothing to do with “Real purchase and financial commitment”. It is artificially changing the value of a Equity Trust Document in the Public domain.
Placing a counterfeit and artificial value on the “Equity Trust”document .

more properties don’t sell than do .
The Assessment formulas for the “Quit Rent” completely ignores the”Original Bill of Sale Value” of all the Properties that have not sold.

It ignores the majority interest, and Instead it inserts their counterfeit value increases from the previous year as representing some kind of truth.
Its a complete manipulation of the concept of …”a Fair and Equitable Quit Rent”.
Each sale in my building class create a new fake taxable increase to my property of some $33,000.00 in new property tax base.
A burden of some $600.00 dollars in new property tax’s for every sale.
Transferred to me and my property.

The City Financial Officer said that they do not inspect even One, not a Single Assessment for Accuracy of the information contained in them…. think about that.
These are the Guys handling the city’s finance…
and they do not inspect any of the supporting documents for their budgets..
by their own admission

The Quit Rent is based on these Junk Numbers and no one will or would guarantee them as real.

Silver

#227 El Padroni on 09.23.12 at 11:22 am

#224
neucular! bahaha, oh man… Remindined me of:

Nucular vs. Nuclear
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDnsSoEGBzs

#228 El Padroni on 09.23.12 at 11:24 am

haha now I screwed up!
*Reminded*

#229 Canadian Watchdog on 09.23.12 at 11:26 am

#222 Daisy Mae

Good point. If we continue to see price gouging amongst corporate brands, local manufacturing and wholesale will start to compete. (9#161 Ken R)

I’ll be bullish on smaller local industrial/commercial real estate before residential housing, that’s for sure. Residential prices aren’t going anywhere for the next decade.

#230 Bankers are People too on 09.23.12 at 11:54 am

Hi Garth,
Curious as to what you think will happen to the rental market in the next few years. Will rents go down? Will there be more available to rent?
Oh and thanks for the book Money Road, can’t wait to read it.

#231 Country Girl on 09.23.12 at 12:22 pm

#195 AACI Home-Dog

It was not me but #171 TRT who gave the grossly inflated cab driver earnings. I’m well aware of what cab drivers make.

#232 Country Girl on 09.23.12 at 12:30 pm

#198 Old Man
It was TNT in #171 (not me) who provided the cab-driver income figures.

#233 jess on 09.23.12 at 12:36 pm

shame-a-nomics

Peter Oborne said this: “People and companies who don’t pay tax should be shamed. I believe as citizens, and as political beings on the Left or the Right, that we have a duty to shame companies that don’t pay taxes – that don’t fulfil their civic duties.”

Why is a Restaurant, on Jersey, the registered home of 800 UK businesses. Awesome curry?
http://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2012/21-september/comment/columnists/tax-dodges-not-boring,-but-life-and-death

===
swamped by the swaps
I wonder which group of taxpayers pay for their fraud investigation !

chilton reply to the question :”How come no one’s in jail for wrecking the economy?
It wasn’t against the law,”

#234 Dazed & Confused on 09.23.12 at 12:45 pm

Folks, this says it all:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
and:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
Numbers don’t lie. Check out Canada’s personal debt. Unbelievable.

#235 industrial Guy on 09.23.12 at 1:00 pm

Real estate agents don’t seem to understand simple demographics. The whole immigration is driving the rise of housing prices theory is bunk. No Phd.s are required to understand the following. Here’s some information right from Stats Can’s web site. …..

“Ontario’s population increased 5.7% between 2006 and 2011, compared with a 6.6% increase during the previous five-year period. The main contributors to this slightly slower growth were lower immigration levels and INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS LEAVING FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. British Columbia’s population increased 7.0%, compared with a 5.3% increase between 2001 and 2006.”

Another interesting stat under the heading “Dwellings”:

“The number of occupied private dwellings in Canada continues to grow at a faster rate than the country’s population, as it has since 1971. Occupied private dwellings are separate living quarters with a private entrance in which people permanently live.While the population rose 5.9% between 2006 and 2011, the number of occupied private dwellings increased 7.1%. The 2011 Census counted 13,320,614 occupied private dwellings, compared with 12,435,520 five years earlier.”

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120208/dq120208a-eng.htm

Here’s another good report to review. Look at annual deaths …. maybe it’s time to invest in funeral homes ….
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/2010001/t124-eng.pdf

#236 Westernman on 09.23.12 at 1:45 pm

Comrade Herbie @ # 220,
What an amusing little new age socialist wonder you are – so self-deluded.
You obviously have watched too many Walt Disney full length animated features and have a view of humanity that is not supported by reality ( a typical mollycoddled liberal condition).
Let me clear up your green tinted sixties hippie mindset for..
The condition you chirp about ” Neanderthal ” is now, always has been, and always will be the default state of human beings along with everything else that walks, crawls, swims or flies on the face of this planet. It is hard-wired in the DNA and that isn’t going to change.
The fact that emasculated, bleeding-heart Liberal crybabies like you even exist is because you had the good fortune of being born in a Socialist Nanny State which has existed for a brief moment in the timeline of the world and is not sustainable.
When this brief social condition passes (and it most surely will ) things will go right back to default.
That will mean the disappearance of your kind and the artificial mindset you so falsely trust.
So you see, it is not my kind that is lined up at the exits, but yours …

#237 Form Man on 09.23.12 at 1:54 pm

#226 silver

I agree that your assessment for property tax purposes may not reflect what your property sells for. The point I was making is that the revenue the city requires is decided at budget time each year, and the mill rate is adjusted accordingly to provide that revenue. There is a suprprisingly wide misunderstanding that if one’s property value goes down , so will the annual property taxes.

The only way residents property taxes will go down, is if the city requires less money to pay their bills ( an unlikely occurrence )

Am I clear, or does this issue require even more explanation ?

#238 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 1:57 pm

I was doing a review on 416 at all listing price levels to see if the red dots had a pattern. The main core area is loading up from Bloor and Avenue Road area down to the Lake and spreading around in all directions. This tells me the speculators are nervous, and are heading to the door to blow off – guess Garth scared the hell out of them.

#239 Atron84 on 09.23.12 at 2:01 pm

Got my haircut yesterday and was chatting to my hairdresser. She told me her dad, who owns property outside of Kelowna, has been trying to sell his house and land in order to retire but hasn’t had any luck over the past few months. His situation has gotten so bad he has decided, at 65, to head up to Fort Mac to seek employment!

#240 Gunboat Denier on 09.23.12 at 2:21 pm

235 Industrial guy – the increase in private dwellings is not surprising given the decrease in the number of members in the typical household. Also add in increasing life expectancies. I can think of a close friend’s family that has three generations all occupying (and in this case owning) their own houses.

#241 jess on 09.23.12 at 2:23 pm

wash cycles and spin

why are so many heads of industry /politicans
leaving china?
http://www.garp.org/risk-news-and-resources/risk-headlines/story.aspx?newsId=52525

…”Because China has a closed monetary system in which U.S. dollars cannot be converted into Chinese money, the country’s huge reserve of foreign cash is more easily used to buy overseas assets than to shore up national banks that depend on a controlled currency, Scissors said.

…People’s Bank of China said 16,000 to 18,000 corrupt officials had fled the country, taking with them their families and $123 billion.

Today that figure stands at the low end of estimated amounts of currency leaving China. At the high end, one estimate from Washington-based Global Financial Integrity says corrupt trade officials let more than $2.5 trillion slip out…

#242 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 2:27 pm

Here is the big question for you would be buyers in the TO core market area, as your wife is horny for a condo purchase to live the good life close to all the action, and she hounds ya day and night by saying: We have the cash for a downpayment, and a mortgage is cheap, so lets do it NOW, before it is too late.

Well, a tsunami is built into the system with greedy developers that will be bringing in a wave of untold thousands of new units into the marketplace, and the great flood will begin, so supply and demand will be out of place. So if you buy now what will happen? I will tell you. Your purchase will become a nightmare, as prices will collapse as much as 50% in some areas in my opinion, but you might get lucky with just a modest hooping of 35%. Now what?

#243 City Slicker on 09.23.12 at 2:33 pm

#221city slicker on 09.23.12 at 10:27 am
Garth are you saying calgary will be immune to the correction

You wish. — Garth
—————————————————————–
Actually I don’t wish as I’m one of the mold infested basement dwellers waiting and looking to buy. But now I’m starting to wonder if Calgary is indeed the exception.

#244 Daisy Mae on 09.23.12 at 2:44 pm

#164Triplenet

Jason the Realtor refers to you as an ass and #130 continually chooses to kiss your ass.
Real estate is certainly interesting isn’t it. Alot of “do diligence”.

I turn the other cheek. — Garth

*******************

What cheek are we talking about?

#245 Form Man on 09.23.12 at 2:51 pm

#236 westernman

well that is rich ! you, the king of crybabies, who only stops sobbing long enough to mop your face with a beach towel, before launching into another immature howl fest…….

#246 Daisy Mae on 09.23.12 at 2:54 pm

#186 John: “I think your making a mistake by putting personalities above principles…”

****************

As usual I don’t have any idea what you’re talking about. Please don’t tell me what I think. I’m tell YOU that I highly value honesty and integrity.

#247 Bo Boka on 09.23.12 at 2:56 pm

#63 Turner Nation

Se hai gobierno, soy contra!

#248 Mister Obvious on 09.23.12 at 3:08 pm

# 237 Form Man

You are quite correct that a city can simply adjust its mill rate accordingly if the total assessed value of all properties combined should rise or fall.

However, since real estate is localized, neighbourhoods will vary in value unevenly. What does change is the tax burden a homeowner carries in relation to other taxpayers in the same city, even if the mill rate remains unchanged.

For some reason it irritates people to pay more than the guys on the other side of the tracks who still pay the same (or less) than the previous year.

It’s not like they have any extra cash in the bank because of their increased property assessments.

#249 Jim on 09.23.12 at 3:11 pm

#81, Tim

“How many eastern European scientists and technical specialists moved to Miami? How many Asian entrepreneurs moved to Miami?”

Uh, we do have an influx of people from foreign countries with decent technical credentials. Fewer scientists, I would imagine.

However, where are the jobs? Please tell me what a scientist would do in Canada. I keep an eye on the scienific and academic job markets quite closely, and I see few opportunities in Canada. I will leave for the US (along with my scientist girlfriend) on account of the jobs available in that country.

Scientists driving taxis or selling real estate isn’t exactly a great outcome.

#250 Canadian Watchdog on 09.23.12 at 3:15 pm

Spot who the biggest GTA speculators are. Hint: It’s not condo owners. Chart.

Read post #121 here for an explanation on GTA’s average price.

#251 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 3:25 pm

Now for you would be buyers who want to purchase the condo in 416 especially in the core, am going to give you some inside info to scare the hell out of you before Halloween – do not do it! I must give a range, as can’t be accurate, but between 35 to 50%, more or less were bought by investors on spec to leave vacant or rent out for a net loss.

This has happened in the past with low percentages as did it myself on occassion to flip off a contract before a closing to make a few bucks. Once went all in at the Prince Arthur across from Yorkville and made a killing, and all went well. So, what is the bottom line with this new bubble? Too many condo towers are not owner occupied, and that spells trouble for an honest buyer of a condo unit.

#252 AprilNewwest on 09.23.12 at 3:59 pm

HoweStreet.com
“Are You Seeing What I’m Seeing” by Jim Quinn.

#253 brainsail on 09.23.12 at 4:12 pm

#203 a prairie dawg

An update to my TFSA question…

I read your response, word for word, to my mother a while ago. She got it. You pegged the situation perfectly.

I heard a gasp after the “they pay bank staff nice commissions.” Then she told me that the time she went to the bank to open the TFSA because it felt like the right thing to do and that the teller she talked to did not explain very much.

Garth’s TFSA gift to Canada was brilliant but it seems that the average citizen is ignorant (my mother) about its purpose.

Thank you very much for spending the time to respond to my question.

#254 Form Man on 09.23.12 at 4:18 pm

#248 Mr Obvious

true enough

#255 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 4:41 pm

#232 Country Girl, ok get it babe as it was TNT who gave the figures, so was confused by all the chat, so have been outed, and will tell you why. I have respect for women, as in my walk in life, some women indeed have the gift for intelligence, business smarts, and all that matters in life – some of them have made me lots of money because I listened to what they had to say.

#256 grantmi on 09.23.12 at 5:12 pm

#252 AprilNewwest on 09.23.12 at 3:59 pm

HoweStreet.com
“Are You Seeing What I’m Seeing” by Jim Quinn.

Good article.. thought I’d link it.

Are You Seeing What I’m Seeing

#257 jess on 09.23.12 at 5:22 pm

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/index.html

Struggling first-time buyers will be able to tap up their parents’ and grandparents pension pots to help raise hefty mortgage deposits. Describing his idea as a ‘pensions-for-property scheme’, Nick Clegg outlined it as a way of enabling those without spare cash to help the younger generation onto the property ladder.
======

“Everyone who owns a home worth £1 million or more will be targeted in a new ‘anti-affluence’ crackdown by the Coalition

‘back-door mansion tax’.
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article-2207197/Taxman-target-1m-home-owners-new-anti-affluence-crackdown-government-widens-net-tax-dodgers.html#ixzz27KWaDtD3

Read more:
Two Conservative donors with an offshore trust are facing £11.5m tax demand
By Alex Hawkes And Jon Rees
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2207113/Two-Conservative-donors-offshore-trust-facing-11-5m-tax-demand.html#ixzz27KS4VOLa
and the other hand

.

A beefed-up squad of computer and legal experts will pore over their property, savings and income. If they think the individual is not paying enough tax, they will have the power to knock on their front door and force them to account for every penny.

The move is part of a tax-dodging purge on the rich forced through by Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article-2207197/Taxman-target-1m-home-owners-new-anti-affluence-crackdown-government-widens-net-tax-dodgers.html

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article-2207197/Taxman-target-1m-home-owners-new-anti-affluence-crackdown-government-widens-net-tax-dodgers.html

#258 Bobby on 09.23.12 at 5:25 pm

For#202 truth hammer,
Good point, I suspect the value of the unit will drop some more, however, wanted to get into that building for a number of personal reasons.
Sometimes you have to pay to get what you want. Some purchases are oftentimes about more than price. I got it for a significant price reduction so am happy.

#259 Canadian Watchdog on 09.23.12 at 5:38 pm

#253 brainsail

Canada May 2, 1936

“I am well aware that this will be called a doctrine of deflation,” Mr Dunning said. “It is not easy for me to understand how departure from the gold standard, recurring deficits, financing by borrowing of the magnitude of those which I have outlined, and a monetary policy which has allowed the Canadian dollar to fluctuate at par with the managed sterling standard and with the devalued United Stated dollar and which has made possible an expansion of the country’s cash base just as rapidly as that of Great Britain, can be described as deflation.”

Two years later, this happened.

Keep your money safe and away from the government’s greasy hands. These are uncertain times. The rules will change.

It was called WW2. — Garth

#260 Canadian Watchdog on 09.23.12 at 6:06 pm

“It was called WW2. — Garth”

It’s called Currency Wars today, and if you didn’t notice, the ECB, Fed and BOJ subsequently eased their policies over the past two weeks and arrived right back to square one. Fail.

#261 Derek R on 09.23.12 at 6:09 pm

#236 Westernman on 09.23.12 at 1:45 pm wrote:
blah, blah, new age socialist, blah, blah, mollycoddled liberal blah, blah, hippie mindset, blah, blah, bleeding-heart Liberal, blah, blah, Socialist Nanny State, blah, blah, (cont. page 94)

Honestly, has Westernman every had anything good to say about anyone? I’ve yet to find one of his comments which does anything other than insult some poor object of his wrath.

At least Truth Hammer gives us some food for thought when he’s not on one of his “Government employees are evil” rants but Westernman? Nothing…

#262 Van guy on 09.23.12 at 6:13 pm

This realtor was on tv saying he couldn’t see this property drop any further than the first reduction of 15%. Well he lied as the price has been reduced again!!

http://www.philipchan.net/ActiveListings.php/Details/373#viewdetail

#263 brainsail on 09.23.12 at 6:21 pm

#259 Canadian Watchdog

Please help me because I’m a little brain dead from all the family things going on right now. What the heck does your post have to do with mine?

#264 B P O E $-$ # 1 on 09.23.12 at 6:30 pm

Empty open houses today…. some even offering snacks and cash prize draws, realtors bills are pilling up, serious expenses for RE agents have been living high on the hog for the last 8 yrs, time to rebalance the budget.

Vancouver RE down 13% YTD
Only another 20-25 % further to appear

Your million dollar crack shack on the East Side soon to be worth $650,000

Sell now…Sell now…Sell now

Hurry before the November rain tears arrive

#265 Westernman on 09.23.12 at 6:42 pm

Form Man @ # 245,
Despite your customary Canadian ceremonial use of fake indignation I notice you didn’t debate the point and truth of my statement…
Looks like I hit the nail right on the head again, didn’t I, Sonny…

#266 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 6:47 pm

#259 – Watchdog we are in a huge deflationary type of depression that Canada has never seen before, as this is a new gig, so all the old rules can be kicked under the bus, as this will become a new adventure down the road into hell. Will Caesar, and K come to the rescue, I set back and laugh as these idiots as they don’t even know the time of day. I say our only help is to bring in the Amazon women with the Queen leading the charge to wipe out REFORM.

#267 Herb on 09.23.12 at 6:58 pm

#236 Westernmoron,

why, thank you for proving my point, you dear man!

#268 Hawk on 09.23.12 at 7:06 pm

#251 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 3:25 pm

I believe you about speculator ownership of condos. But why would a speculator sell at a large loss when he can hold onto the property by renting it out. Only if it’s vacant and he has to pay fees + taxes, then the carrying cost puts him in the red, in which case he cashes out a large loss, but why otherwise?

#269 };-) aka D.A. on 09.23.12 at 7:17 pm

And in Nova Scotia on Friday, this was the scorecard: 81 new listings, 55 price reductions and 41 sales. That pattern has been repeated daily now for months on end… – Garth

And that unto itself might paint a disturbing picture, but include the number of homes where the listing expired without a sale because the seller simply had unrealistic price expectations and that pattern becomes a different display of supply and demand to that which you imply.

#270 Country Girl on 09.23.12 at 7:31 pm

Garth,
If you find it fitting, I’d like to post this old tale of donkey inspiration,
“Donkey In The Well”
One day, a farmer’s donkey fell down into a well. The donkey cried piteously for hours as the farmer tried to figure out what to do. Finally, he decided the animal was old and the well needed to be covered up anyway; it just wasn’t worth it to retrieve the donkey.
He invited his neighbours to come and help, so they all grabbed a shovel and began to shovel dirt into the well.
At first, the donkey realized what was happening and cried horribly. Then, to everyone’s amazement he became quiet.
A few shovel loads later, the farmer finally looked down the well and was astonished at what he saw.
With each shovel of dirt that hit his back, the donkey did something amazing. He’d shake it off and take a step up. As the farmer’s neighbours continued to shovel dirt onto the animal, he would shake it off and take a step up.
Pretty soon, everyone was amazed as the donkey stepped up over the edge of the well and trotted off!
Life is going to shovel all kinds of dirt on you. The trick to getting out, is to shake it off and take a step up. Each of our troubles is a stepping stone. We can get out of the deepest wells just by not stopping, never giving up. Shake it off and take a step up.

#271 Ralph Cramdown on 09.23.12 at 7:43 pm

Anyone want to hear some Christmas music ? I got my accordion out and have been brushing up. I sing too.

Can you do “Fairytale of New York”?

#272 Daisy Mae on 09.23.12 at 7:52 pm

#243 City Slicker: “But now I’m starting to wonder if Calgary is indeed the exception.”

***************8

WHY would there be any exceptions? This housing correction and financial debacle is GLOBAL.

#273 Smoking Man on 09.23.12 at 7:53 pm

Western Man I am impressed. You can piss off more people that me.

#274 };-) aka D.A. on 09.23.12 at 8:02 pm

The overall picture is grim, despite realtors’ assurances that the real estate market is levelling off and the prices are being reduced to more realistic levels. – Vancouver Sun, April 30, 1981

From 1979 to 1981 the average price of homes on the Lower Mainland of British Columbia more than doubled. Here are some examples cited in that article quoted above;

New Westminster $32,000 to $77,000
East Vancouver $39,000 to $90,000
Coquitlam $39,900 to $95,000
Burnaby $43,900 to $110,000
Richmond $47,900 to $114,000
North Vancouver $52,900 to $111,000
Delta $52,900 to $97,900

You may recall later in 1981 the economy hit a brick wall and prices retreated. We all thought then it would never recover to be quite the same.

I’d like to ask you all what you think the average home price of those areas above might be today? Do you think that anyone who bought a home in April of 1981 is now regretting it? Remember that was the peak of the market then. A few short months later I graduated from university and you could have shot a canon down the hiring halls without hitting anyone, where just the year before it was a crowded affair. The recession of 1981 was not unlike this most recent – for some it was worse. I personally know of people, not a person – people, who couldn’t cope and took their lives because of it.

Good times are a lot nearer than you think. What you think is your prison or your opportunity.

#275 AprilNewwest on 09.23.12 at 8:14 pm

#269
Always on the defensive………

#276 Old Man on 09.23.12 at 8:34 pm

I know this hot babe that lives down the street from Garth in NS, but she is married, and all is cool, as he might like it all; not what you think, so get those dirty minds out of the gutter, so will send him the link, as he might enjoy this all, as this babe is special on my book, and what is this all about?

#277 Form Man on 09.23.12 at 8:36 pm

#275 April

DA is still struggling with understanding the difference between venture capitalists and construction mortgage investors. The constant confusion is taking its toll. Irrationality has seized control of
DA…………

#278 Nemesis on 09.23.12 at 8:52 pm

“A FourLegged Friend”… Redux…

INT. – GT’S BUNKER – NIGHT

“We could do this all night if one of us doesn’t give up.”

http://youtu.be/elhhgyVWzPY?hd=1

#279 neo on 09.23.12 at 8:57 pm

#274};-) aka D.A.

That was some useless drivel you wrote right there.

I also wish I brought $77,000 worth of Apple stock back in 1981 and held it until now. But how many people did that?

#280 Canadian Watchdog on 09.23.12 at 9:03 pm

#266 Old Man

Deflation and inflation is an alternative to what we have now.

#274 };-) aka D.A.

“You may recall later in 1981 the economy hit a brick wall and prices retreated. We all thought then it would never recover to be quite the same.”

And what got us out of that so called recession? Hint. Today’s problem is not 1980s as interest rates will stay pegged to the floor forever until a new global accord is made, which means a devaluation or revaluation for the Canadian dollar. Read history.

#281 Westernman on 09.23.12 at 9:44 pm

Smoking Man @ # 273,
Yes, truth telling is a lonely, thankless business – especially in a socialist nanny state filled with compliant slaves…
But somebody has to do it and who better than me…

#282 DON on 09.24.12 at 12:28 am

JASON???

IF YOU CANNOT SEE THE PROOF – You are the idiot. Take a course in social economics.

See Garth…you stirred the delusional vancouver hornet’s nest. They are going to be mad, as you have outed them. The bar is closing and the ugly lights have come on. Am in Qualicum Beach at the moment visiting family and do I have a report for the blog. Will report on the next blog when I have some time.

Jason man-up and do some research and stop being a little boy. We may have to pop the soother out you mouth. Send you to bed without supper.

#283 };-) aka D.A. on 09.24.12 at 2:02 am

#279 neo on 09.23.12 at 8:57 pm

Yes I too wish I bought $77,000 worth of Apple stock back in 1981. Fortunately we bought a house and, while it did not perform nearly as well as Apple stock, it is bought and paid for, worth over eight times what we paid for it back then and we will never pay another mortgage or rent payment again.

#280 Canadian Watchdog on 09.23.12 at 9:03 pm

Maybe, but not likely.

#284 a prairie dawg on 09.24.12 at 2:08 am

#253 brainsail

Glad the info helped her. To clarify a point, before she goes and rips the bank staff a new one, is that sometimes they just don’t know any better. Some staff know very little, while others know enough to try to push the commission based products. It all comes down to how much the customer understands before walking in the door. If you appear not to know any better, then they’ll usually try to steer you towards the structured products that the bank offers.

A good thing to remember is that banks are only in the business of making the bank money. The illusion they try to project is that they’ll do the same for you. And they’re just so darn nice about it too. lol

#285 GM on 09.24.12 at 12:35 pm

Yikes, those are some angry messages. It makes sense given the amount of money that is at stake in a real estate crash. But still yikes. It’s almost like they’re blaming you for causing a crash Garth.

#286 deja view? on 09.24.12 at 7:29 pm

According to the same news program, for a cool half mil you can buy an affordable 600sf Yaletown ‘family’ condo built on the old False Creek industrial site with direct access to both Tim Horton’s day care and the sea wall, which also doubles as an outdoor play area.
Your kid might even dredge up an old axle, or catch a fish with 3 eyes! That’s exciting.
Doesn’t get any better than that.