Sold out

How confused are people? Well, when 2,400 sign up to listen to me, we’re probably all screwed. So, obviously, my little talk in Toronto on October 23rd is sold out. Too bad. You’ll just have to wait for the next Lady Gaga gig.

Seriously, I’m not worth it. Nothing blow ups. No monster trucks. No roadies. No hot backup dancers. No rock anthems. Nothing to make you stand, sway, tear up and remember being fourteen and horny.

But I guess the fact one paragraph posted for two days on one pathetic blog garners this reaction goes to the heart of our times. Clearly the ground’s shifting beneath us. What everybody thought was a no-brainer a year or two ago is suddenly going all Nortel on us. The whole definition of risk is changing. In 2010 property virgins thought nothing of buying a $400,000 townhouse with zero down, because real estate always goes up and [email protected] forked over all that money (plus the down payment).

But two years later, with sales tumbling, rules changing, economists clucking and the mainstream media piling on, the days of ‘buy now or buy never’ are turning into ‘I can’t believe we did that.’ After all, scoring a property with nothing but your cash flow only made sense when values were steadily swelling. In a flatlined market (like now), you start to envy the couple in the next condo, renting an identical unit for half the cost. And when prices fall just 10%, the reality hits: you’re the greater fool. Suddenly you owe more than you own, in addition to shoveling out all that extra money every month. The final stage is the worst. Illiquidity. Trapped in your own real estate, since you can’t afford to sell.

Things could pick up considerable speed from this point. Not just with sales and prices, but perception.

Suddenly what’s been bleated about here for incredibly boring lengths of time is popping up everywhere. “A correction in Canada’s housing market appears to be underway led by Vancouver,” says a Globe story this week. “We expect the slowdown will become more broad-based following a fourth round of mortgage insurance regulation tightening by the federal government,” say TD economists. “The tide seems to have finally turned. The combination of market fatigue, stricter lending guidelines for insured mortgages and a deterioration in housing affordability is helping to put the brakes on housing activity.”

We, of course, know that. But the millions of idiots we count as family members, co-workers, parents, spouses and piteous, granite-sucking friends do not. This is the job of the media. To tell people about dangerous things when there’s no hope of escape, then report on the fear.

But there are some exceptions – a few brave reporters left who stubbornly distort reality, no matter how difficult and embarrassing that might turn out to be. One is the business reporter who specializes in real estate for the country’s largest paper, the Toronto Star. She burst into print on Tuesday just as the local real estate cartel was releasing their latest stats – a report card on sales and prices to the middle of September.

“Home sales may be tanking across much of the country, but the price of coveted detached homes in the City of Toronto continues to soar,” wrote Susan Pigg, “with the average cost exceeding $800,000 for the first time. The price of the average detached home was up 17 per cent in mid September over the same time last year, hitting $805,308, according to midmonth figures from the Toronto Real Estate Board.”

See what I mean? Here are the actual average values of a SFH in 416 for 2012:

January       $742,993
February    $818,815
March        $816,169
April        $831,214
May        $820,816
June        $803,671
July        $752,431
August        $746,300
Sept (mid)    $805,308

In other words, this is not the first time an average detached house sat above the $800,000 mark. That happened in the distant past – four months ago. A more interesting story might be why that value crashed 10% between April and August (there was no story about that), then popped up 8% in a month when sales slid by 15%. The answer: in a thinning market averages usually rise since a few big sales amp the stats. Somebody should tell the lady, this ain’t good news.

Or not. Perchance it’s this untrustworthy, quixotic reportage that’s driven so many people to dank and desperate places like this blog. This refuge of damp renters, bashed spouses, shamed sons-in-law and the houseless, pitied by everyone in the office. Rise up, friends. In utter social failure, there is strength.

BTW, I need a backup band. No accordion.

176 comments ↓

#1 i.am. on 09.18.12 at 9:22 pm

fuuuuurssstttt

Oh, get lost. — Garth

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.18.12 at 9:25 pm

Wow – Susan Pigg is a “Business Reporter”:
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1258345–price-of-detached-homes-soars-despite-housing-market-downturn

I guess she’s in the “business” or reporting TREB propaganda?

Maybe she just forgot the words “since June”?
i.e. “… the price of coveted detached homes in the City of Toronto continues to soar, with the average cost exceeding $800,000 for the first time”since June.

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.18.12 at 9:27 pm

Condo sales down 32% from last mid-September… sounds like a “healthy” market to me.

#4 LJ on 09.18.12 at 9:27 pm

I have a friend that can play a mean kazoo…

#5 Shocked and Awed on 09.18.12 at 9:27 pm

I hear the Schmenge Brothers are lookingfor a gigas a backup band

#6 bert on 09.18.12 at 9:34 pm

“This refuge of damp renters, bashed spouses, shamed sons-in-law and the houseless, pitied by everyone in the office. Rise up, friends. In utter social failure, there is strength”. ..
Garth you made my day and gave me the first Belly Laugh in ages. I am so at home heron this pathetic blog.

#7 Chaddywack on 09.18.12 at 9:34 pm

It’s nice to be part of the elite who are in the know.

#8 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 09.18.12 at 9:36 pm

Yeah , but C’mon…….you let ALL the Federal Gov’t M.P.’S and Senators have VIP tickets….I hear F and C want to give you a GaterAde shower.

PS Smokinky Man….you can be the valet and get tips.

#9 CP on 09.18.12 at 9:46 pm

Love Scotia’s head honcho:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/at-worst-housing-market-headed-for-soft-landing-scotiabank-ceo/article4551980/

Soft, like a pillow!

#10 KG on 09.18.12 at 9:47 pm

“What we see now is probably, at worst, a soft landing,” Mr. Waugh told reporters after a speech to the Toronto financial community.

I see TREB keeps Susan Pigg in business and Bank of Nova Scotia CEO Rick Waugh keeps you in your mission.

#11 Esmerelda Fitzmonster on 09.18.12 at 9:49 pm

Couldnt happen to a better nation of smug. cliquey, corrupt hicks.

#12 KG on 09.18.12 at 9:49 pm

How long have you been keeping this pic in your closet.

Actually it’s on my manly back. — Garth

#13 Sid on 09.18.12 at 9:53 pm

This is the first time, after years of reading your blog that I am utterly offended! Accordians are awesome! You would be lucky to have one in your backup band.

#14 Freedom First on 09.18.12 at 9:53 pm

Scoring a property with nothing but your cash flow…….priceless. Sounds even better than “You’re richer than you think”. “Idiots”, more priceless Garth! Yes, leverage is fun on the way up…….sucks on the way down though…..tough lesson. As always, since forever, I like cash, cash flow, liquidity, income streams, diversified assets, and no debt. Enjoy your blog Garth, and I am not surprised you end up sold out at your speaking engagements. You are like a guy with the flashlight in a dark room……. because you speak the truth.

#15 Kenken on 09.18.12 at 10:04 pm

These days, the Banks are trying to call it a soft landing while some reporters are trying to use only selective figures to show there is no correction.

this only means, it`s time…. time to run!!

#16 Tim on 09.18.12 at 10:05 pm

Regardless of the way the media states the housing prices, they sure aren’t falling through the floor, despite the gloom in the Canadian and world economies. Though the market is finally slowly starting to drop, the percentage amount is insignificant. Nevertheless, Garth is finally right about prices falling–though nowhere near the magnitude he implied, after being wrong for more than three years.

That was gracious. — Garth

#17 OlderbutWiser on 09.18.12 at 10:07 pm

HAHAHA, that has got to be the funniest pic I have seen in a long time. How do you get a “refund” on a tatoo?

The only thing funnier is that I showed the pic to others in the office and some couldn’t figure out what was so funny. Second great laugh of the day – hahahahah!!

#18 Min in Mission on 09.18.12 at 10:07 pm

“perchance”!!!!!???

Heck of a good word, for a nice sunny evening on the West Coast!!!

#19 Debtfree on 09.18.12 at 10:09 pm

you should hire these guys Garth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TnxE0Ds2G4

#20 Debtfree on 09.18.12 at 10:14 pm

@ #5 you must mean schmenge brother . one half of the died.

#21 Keeping the Faith on 09.18.12 at 10:15 pm

Common you guys … Stevenson, BPOE and DA, speak up already!!!

Tell us your wisdom.
Stun us with your grandeur.
Dazzle us with the feats of soothsaying.

Or how about … shut-up and listen to the Fat Lady singing.
Loud and Proud Boys, that’s how they sing it in the BPOE of old!

This steak is done, well-done.
Take it off the grill and put on the tofu.
So unsatisfying.
NEXT!!!

#22 SP on 09.18.12 at 10:15 pm

You need a back up band you say? I can play the hurdy gurdy really well!

#23 TurnerNation on 09.18.12 at 10:18 pm

Toronto Star was fawning over “Ford Nation” – the Toronto Mayor’s annual free BBQ, beer party at his home. A few thousand showed up, lured by free nosh, for the chance of trampling his flower beds.

Yet this pathetic weblog receives the same number of attendees at an week-night event – sans grub.
We are a part of TurnerNation! Eat your heart out, H.

#24 Gandalf on 09.18.12 at 10:18 pm

Not sure where I found these links but a great analysis and shows you in plain math how far you’ll be ahead of the game by renting in today’s environment. Good ammunition for the in-laws who tell you that you’re a loser for not owning a house!

http://www.holypotato.net/?p=1073

http://www.holypotato.net/?p=1074

#25 Keeping the Faith on 09.18.12 at 10:19 pm

#16 Tim
Why don’t you just man up and say “Garth is God and Tim is a peon that knows nothing already”
Better yet take the bullhorn out of your purse and go shout it down Bay Street.

#26 salonist on 09.18.12 at 10:19 pm

“student loan:debt for life”

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-06/student-loans-debt-for-life#r=read

#27 SP on 09.18.12 at 10:21 pm

Also Garth, what do you think of the comment by the head of Bank of Nova Scotia:

“Canada’s housing market is “at worst” destined for a soft landing”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/at-worst-housing-market-headed-for-soft-landing-scotiabank-ceo/article4551980/

#28 renters rule on 09.18.12 at 10:22 pm

ugh, Tim is relentlessly predictable.

He won’t believe there has been a correction until he has to sell his house for 40% less than he thought it was worth at its “peak”… you make one want to wish you get crushed by it all.

How’s this for a prediction — the obvious will be apparent to even you Tim by next spring, and you will fade away and never post again (one can dream)…

p.s. did you all notice that Garth and I are on a first name basis? :-p

#29 Cory on 09.18.12 at 10:28 pm

It’s different in Calgary as this realtor says it is.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2012/09/17/so-far-its-different-in-calgary/

It hasnt been different anywhere in the world……except Calgary….high oil prices will be the savior. Not when it costs $150 to fill your truck it won’t be!!!!!!!!!!!! We are already at that point. I work in O&G here and I make a very good living, but high gas prices hurt me. I couldnt imagine how much it hurts those making less than me.

#30 buy low on 09.18.12 at 10:33 pm

to #23 Cory,

What is a “good living” in O&G mean. Can you put numbers to that. I’m just curious where “good living” falls. thanks

#31 renters rule on 09.18.12 at 10:40 pm

good living is >$80K?

If gassing the truck hurts — sell it and go smaller, unless you are able to deduct truck expenses from that good living income…. no brainer, um, unless you are overcompensating for something else of course, and need the big rig for appearances…. :-o

#32 Toon Town Boomer on 09.18.12 at 10:42 pm

This refuge of damp renters, bashed spouses, shamed sons-in-law and the houseless, pitied by everyone in the office. Rise up, friends.

Ya for us! We all survived being houseless and thank God debtless.

#33 KG on 09.18.12 at 10:42 pm

“The numbers we are seeing now are really not a huge surprise,” Mr. Waugh said. “They are well within our expectations, let’s say 10 per cent in sales volume, and 10 per cent in prices.”

I think he forgot to add the third dimension “within first 10% of the correction window.”

#34 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 09.18.12 at 10:46 pm

I am answering Garth’s call for an opening act (which reeks of desperation).

Classic music has charm that will sooth the savage beast of Horny House Wife and BC realtors et al

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofkzvM7Skxg&feature=fvwrel

#35 MediaBuff on 09.18.12 at 10:47 pm

No rock anthem? C’mon, man.

Then again, maybe House music would be more appropriate – like “Doctorin’ the House” by House Nation.

#36 Victor on 09.18.12 at 10:53 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/18/housing-correction-underway-in-canada-soft-landing-likely-bankers/

That outlook means the Bank of Canada will start increasing interest rates next year, Mr. Alexander said, expecting a 50-basis-point hike next year, thereby bringing the central bank’s benchmark rate to 1.5% by the end of 2013.

He expects a similar 50-basis-point hike in 2014.

“With the Canadian economy growing at what is believed to be its cruising speed limit of close to 2%, even TD Economics’ relatively soft near-term economic forecast is consistent with gradual rate increases over the next couple of year,” he said.

====================

Someone pass the popcorn.

#37 AprilNewwest on 09.18.12 at 10:58 pm

#21 Keeping the Faith.
Add #16 and TNT to that list.

#38 AprilNewwest on 09.18.12 at 11:00 pm

#27 SP – What is there to say? Their in the mortgage lending business, consequently play down the correction.

#39 mr-b on 09.18.12 at 11:10 pm

#31 Renters Rule

“If gassing the truck hurts — sell it and go smaller, unless you are able to deduct truck expenses from that good living income…. no brainer, um, unless you are overcompensating for something else of course, and need the big rig for appearances…. :-o”

It’ll be pretty tough to get to the rig in that electric car. There is a reason for all the trucks in Alberta.

Ever drive across the prairie?

#40 Tim on 09.18.12 at 11:19 pm

Re Renters Rule,
One can dream that you will improve your critical thinking skills and your grammar while you are at it. You just keep waiting for that 40% correction…

#41 2centsCdn on 09.18.12 at 11:19 pm

I think it’s all great. Let the media, dinner party, bar and water cooler crowd try to keep the mirage alive. The world revolves on 95% of the populations having it’s head head up their @ss ……. the laws of nature and economics will balance everything out … always did … always will.

Let the readers here be the small percentage of the population who “get’s it”. The one’s who do their homework, recognize hype and BS and use real data, patience and the understanding of fundamentals to make decisions and build time lines for actions ….. VS …. the smoke, mirrors greed, hope, lust, keep up with the Jones-itis, gross lack of self dicipline and general stupidity that are the tools of the sheeple masses.

If you want to be average … do what everyone else does. In your age group ….. what is the average wage in Canada? What are the average savings in Canada? What is the average net worth in Canada? What is the average dept in Canada? What percentage of your current wage will old age retirement be? (if there is any). How much savings will you have at age 60, 70, 80? Where will that allow you to live? How will that allow you to live?

You do not want to be average. If you do what everyone else does, you will be screwed …. and live a steadily downward spiraling life. Time to WTFU!

#42 Doug in London on 09.18.12 at 11:20 pm

It appears the one difference between the last real estate bust (early 1990’s) and the one coming now is far more effort has and is being expended to keep the boom going. That’s probably because more is at stake, namely the fallout, from when it inevitably corrects. The result is it now has more distance to fall and will last longer. During the last bust, it was allowed to run its course, which was better in the long run because it was over with more quickly and thus could recover more quickly. Yes, this time WILL be different!

Regrettably, I missed the boat and didn’t register in time for Garth’s speaking in Toronto (it’s a bit of a hike from London) but did get to enjoy the motorsports show, complete with monster trucks, at the Western Fair last week. Sadly though, no hot backup dancers.

#43 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 09.18.12 at 11:21 pm

I guess my timing was OK then. Sold out Summer 2011.
Got rid of all the debt back home and jumped into a buyer’s market in France.

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/

#44 Tim on 09.18.12 at 11:25 pm

RE keeping the faith
Why don’t you start looking into some published stats on real estate prices instead of blindly adhering to your moniker

#45 Popeye the sailor man on 09.18.12 at 11:29 pm

Can’t be a back up band but;

If I was in a MLM program like Amway I would love to be the follow up act with the 2400 people there.

You would be sure to find several to sign on.

#46 NKVD Black Raven on 09.18.12 at 11:38 pm

Isn’t it about time 1 Yonge got converted into condos?
Hello Mr Mayor, The Star & Captain John’s need to be shipped out of the waterfront plan.

#47 ozy - is the drop really coming? on 09.18.12 at 11:45 pm

House on corner asking 130K more than worth, listed 830000 or so, not selling but not cutting the price to value. And because no one else is offering a house for 700000, guess what, an GF will eventually buy it for 775000 which is 10% more that value. I believe the kanatian-type consumer is deaf and come spring, will ignore the media nuisance about mortgage tigthening, and will take the plunge pushed by naked-granite lust.
I bet the crap house will then be listed at 850000…
I beg to differ, but if such predictions would have made sense (Buyers to awake in Toronto), the market would not have reached here. So, it will go up short term (5-10% in one year), go down medium term (15% total avearge drop over next 2-4 years) and go up long term (5+ years) to reach more than today’s prices 6 years from now. That’s my prediction, so if you must buy for various solid reasons and you have 30-50% downpayment, might not be worth waiting for eventuallly eventual events.
Salute.

#48 KG on 09.18.12 at 11:47 pm

May 25th:
Official GreaterFool Notice: This is the last time an idiotic, puerile, meaningless ‘first’ comment will be published. You are more pathetic than this blog. — Garth

#49 Victoria Tea Party on 09.18.12 at 11:49 pm

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy

Maybe Ms. Pigg is trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. I can think of another couple of phrases but those could be construed as rude, especially the “flying” one, oh, and the “lipstick” one.

Point is, the line between propaganda and “news” amongst the disconsolate, and perhaps dysfunctional, chip-stained wretches of the fourth estate is now more muddified (not actually a real word, that!) than ever.

When is news propaganda and vice versa?

The answer is easy; when the assignment editor deems that it is and all is then well with the world, one way or another.

Nice thing about being an amoral MSM “news” slouch is never having to say you’re sorry, since they have no morals in the first instance; hence amoral as in devoid of morals.

Truthiness (another non-word) in journalism left the barn some time back.

Somone has yet to close the door. But that doesn’t really matter, does it?

Meanwhile keep the old radar tuned into really important issues including the China/Japan dust-up and anywhere in the Mideast.

Hot times, good times, whatever it takes to make a buck.

Truthiness, no thanks to the MSM, will land on our doorsteps one of these fine days.

And you can bank on that!

#50 dutch4505 on 09.18.12 at 11:53 pm

i was finally able to get a mortgage for 10 acres in whatcom county (bellingham wa) with 40% down. (would not even look at my application unless I had 40% cash up front on deposit) I have a steady government paycheck and near perfect credit rating, and a debt to service ratio less than 20%. I drive a six year old corolla paid off and I bank about 30% of my paychecks into IRAs and 401K. only thing missing to get the mortgage was a pint of blood. it also took about 6 weeks to finalize.

now i need to help my brother in law. bought a 700 sq ft 50 year old house on a postage stamp lot in port moody BC in mid 2009. 5% down mortgage and also received a line of credit of 75,000 to fix up the place. self employed and the couple are expecting their first child.
line of credit, credit cards are max out (due to cost over runs). they need to find a lender who will consoldiate it all including the first mortage. anyone know of a generous canadian banker?

#51 InvestX on 09.18.12 at 11:58 pm

Great job exposing that reporter’s nonsense, Garth.

#52 $$$BPOE#1 on 09.19.12 at 12:14 am

Cruisin through one of my favourite haunts Richmond BC. Every street 50 year homes being bulldozed and McMansions going up. The housing bull only in the 3rd inning folks. Things have never been better. Folks, renters coming to see Garth speak want to find out when they can buy

#53 Carpe Diem on 09.19.12 at 12:15 am

I went camping with x-gens almost boomers this weekend. It was a remote adventure that thought me plenty in terms of rain and cold nights. These guys are expert remote campers and have earned my respects.

But in finance and investments, they have no clue. They keeping spending money on rock concerts and paying down their mortgage thinking their home = retirement savings. They have no savings.

I did not try to educate them, just drank more beer and enjoyed Led Zeppelin songs.

After enjoying early 70’s progressive rock as an adult, it sure was good music. The gents did enjoy Foo Fighters when we played them to change to mood.

#54 Joe on 09.19.12 at 12:21 am

Garth, I fully agree with what you write about real estate, however I’m not really convinced about your take on “the economy is going to be just fine” (paraphrased of course).

If household consumer debt is at the highest levels ever and now real estate is starting to hold more and more (underwater) homeowners hostage, why shouldn’t domestic consumer purchasing collapse? Wouldn’t this significantly hurt the economy after a year or two?

It would be great if you could write a bit more about your reasoning in this regard in a future post because this is looking more and more like an elephant in the room to me.

Thanks

#55 Mr Buyer on 09.19.12 at 12:25 am

Where is Truth Hammerer telling us that Trudeau peed Harper’s pants?

#56 Ravishing Rick on 09.19.12 at 12:25 am

I’m 35 and horny!

#57 Vangrrl on 09.19.12 at 12:27 am

#13 Sid:
‘This is the first time, after years of reading your blog that I am utterly offended!’

It took you this long to be offended by something on this blog?? Wow! :0

#58 Angel on 09.19.12 at 12:41 am

Things are starting to suck for people. A house down the street from me sat on the market for the whole spring and summer of 2011. It dropped in asking a couple of times by 1 or 2%, nothing amazing though, considering they wanted close to $500,000. Eventually it sold. Lo and behold it was on the market again this summer and sat for about 10 to 12 weeks before a sold sign was slapped on the realturd sign out front… along with a for sale sign on the Civic. It’s fun to guess that they’re selling the car to pay the closing costs and fill the gap between what they paid and what they ended up settling to sell for. Or could be a divorce. Who knows.

#59 Ayn Rand Army on 09.19.12 at 12:55 am

I used to play the accordion when I was an adolescent so I’m a little rusty but all know all the Christmas music…
Old King Winsler
Away In a Manger
Deck the Halls
Jingle Bells
And of course Chop Sticks!

#60 bailing in bc on 09.19.12 at 1:00 am

#19 Debtfree

Love “The Beards”

Everyone must view their masterpiece “If your Dad hasn’t gone a beard, you’ve got two Mums”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmFnarFSj_U

#61 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.19.12 at 1:04 am


“Things could pick up considerable speed from this point. Clearly the ground’s shifting beneath us. What everybody thought was a no-brainer a year or two ago is suddenly going all Nortel on us.” — Most here know how quickly Bre-X and Nortel sank. The bond market determines interest rates, but what or who controls the bond market?

“Rise up, friends. In utter social failure, there is strength.” — As social rejects / crackpots, we can all stand proudly on our hind legs, thump our chests and bleat, “We are the chosen ones, with mint jelly and mashed potatoes! We are united with Pasta Garth!” Such as here.
*
Currency Wars follows QE3; China – Japan Bond attack? Russia – NKorea Good deal for the North; Silver bullet through the Rothschild’s heart (not sure if they have one); EU Barroso’s banking union; Financial Emergency How does one cope with it? The US Fed “The core problem with QE3 is that it is completely unsustainable, and there is a huge crash of the American economy coming; it is not a question of if, but a question of when.” wrh.com; Banks Sux to be poor; Hiring for xmas What happens on Jan. 2? Lloyds Cash for sales program; The Council on Foreign Relations; QE3 and the RE market; Unprecedented Increase Incl. chart. Food stamps; Bernanke and Obomba Another take on QE3; Tungsten Buy! Buy! Buy! John Mauldin is in a compromising position; American Airlines New job losses; Rent or Buy Your money or your freedom.

Foreign holdings of US debt rise again; Investors flock to Russia; Inflation and the US Fed; Wealth You can’t take it with you; FedEx CEO on China; Nine Countries that lost control of inflation; Dubai Shopping Mall Pix in; Gold Is Money says Deutsche Bank; The Federal Reserve now has police powers, and The Federal Reserve now owns 4closed homes under QE3; The New Robber Barons; Rehypothecated Ghost Steel Did it ever exist?
*
DHS buys a ton and a half of ammo, and this; Romney’s October Surprise; Two sides to every story, so Romney’s Implosion leaves the door wide open for Jeb Bush, but The Shaping Of A NWO “Though you wouldn’t guess it in an election year, the rest of the world increasingly does not need American leadership to guide the way.”; Winners of this year’s “Most Corrupt Congress”; Underwater killer sheeple? Not sure; First Impressions Diff’rent take; Brazilliant Next up — Brazil for the Owelimpix; 1:36 clip Obomba in 1998 speaks of wealth redistribution; All out war on Islam; Atlantis repeat? Santorini bulging with magma; Tooth Patch Evolution in dental work; 3:05 clip FEMA camp in Hawaii? Trans-Siberian Railway Vacation on the not-so Orient Express; US and Chinese Navies Fighting UFOs off US coast? I thought they were fighting each other.

#62 truth hammer on 09.19.12 at 1:09 am

Yuuuuup…those litter box concrete crap holes are going to get awfully small when the trap is sprung and theres fear in the air that it’s all been a trap. people fear the noose…..the women especially…cabin fever is the worst thing in a marriage.

I can sense the walls are closing in already on those idiots who got sucked into the vortex of banksters and realtards lies. There will be a great sadness when it’s obvious that the ‘few years of sacrifice to build equity’ has turned into a nightmarish prison….with no money to spend…KD night after night……and the dreams of an urban lifestyle have dissappeared now that booby is preggers and it’s 30 below outside with the parks eighteen feet under fresh Novenmber snow.

You can imagine what the screams sound like if you dream up the scenario of Billy Bob and Booby sitting in the banksters office and being informed that their coffin has just shrunk $150,000 below purchase cost……that sinking feeling will leave wet stains on the vinyl.

Refi’s at 15% off will be a nightmare scenario of driving over to her parents to ask for the shortfall between the mortgage and the refi up stroke. I can hear it now….Mommy..Daddy…the bankster says we need $67,000 dollars to keep our home…..wahhhhhhhh !!!!!!!! Hide the knives.

#63 Alberta Ed on 09.19.12 at 1:21 am

I had to grab the manure shovel to keep from being buried when I read the TD’s predicted “…soft landing.” I did deal with that bank, once, and only once, as it defined for me the word “dysfunctional.” Never again…

#64 Hawk on 09.19.12 at 1:31 am

A correction is certainly due in the overheated property market of the GTA.

But for those wishing a 40 – 50% crash in prices, I do have a question: which other major metropolitan cities worldwide can you name that are experiencing such crashes or which have much lower prices than the GTA for comparable housing?

And if you can’t well then I’d observe …………..

“IT’S NOT DIFFERENT HERE”.

#65 coastal on 09.19.12 at 1:35 am

Victoria MSM are ramping up the BS that new homes are flying off the shelf and you better get in lickety split. Cookie cutter houses on tiny lots with all the glitter, but they fail to mention the dreaded Colwood crawl traffic to get into the city is not 18 minutes, more like two to three times that. Bear Mountain is still in legal limbo, this place is next door.

http://video.cheknews.ca/services/player/bcpid974473980001?bckey=AQ~~,AAAA4mHNTzE~,ejlzBnGUUKYIoprcT6z5-pnBQPUzN58M&bctid=1848052939001

#66 zoostationz on 09.19.12 at 1:36 am

For what it’s worth my prediction is that there will be no rate increases in the next couple of years, the real estate market will finally turn and make Garth look like a genius (except if you have been reading his articles as I have since the late 90’s and know him as generally bearish on RE and bullish on financial assets). There will be no RE collapse in Canada mainly because of central bank support (Fed, ECB, BOJ) for the global economy. All liquidity being injected into the system to support asset prices around the world, will support Canada’s RE market also. So what otherwise would be a devastating collapse is going to be a slow descent. But it follows from this that as an investment, real estate in cities like Toronto, will not be the place to be. Cities like Hamilton will fare better but you’re likely to get higher returns in other asset classes like blue chip preferred stock.

#67 Timeturner on 09.19.12 at 1:54 am

As a single parent with every last dime trapped in two properties, your words of wisdom and timely predictions have made my day…NOT….but I do see the truth in them….sure sucks, once you know the truth, the blanket of lies loses it’s comfort. I have to wonder if the government will have to lay off these imposed lending restrictions prior to the entire collapse of their precious growth economy and eradication of the middle class (although, based on avg family debt load, this has already happened).

#68 Robert on 09.19.12 at 1:59 am

The Banks could not have sent a clearer message to Canadians when they depreciated RE by 15% overnight. Welcome to the new world where gold becomes a tier one asset and at the same time RE becomes a tier three asset. I agree with Garth that the speed at which this correction is growing is very alarming.. Time to remove the rose colored glasses and protect your family..

#69 B P O E -$-$ #2 SOLD OUT on 09.19.12 at 2:14 am

Thats right you heard it here folks,BPOE is Sold Out of Buyers… the unthinkable is unfolding, sales in Vancouver worse than 2008 inventory past 19000 and soaring to 20000, completely unstopable, the bubble has burst, all the pros waiting in the wings have filled their pants and were last seen waiting in line at Money Mart. Fire sale pricing on Mercs and Beemers from repo man coming soon, 2 for 1 hammers and drywall at Home Depot.Real estate for sale/ reduced again/ bank owned sign installers working 24/7. Bob Rennie and Tsur new managers at White Spot. I’m very right!

#70 Aaron - Melbourne on 09.19.12 at 2:38 am

Just because you’re a conspiracy nut doesn’t mean you’re wrong!
***********************************
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/8535180/us-hoarder-was-stashing-gold-antique-coins-cash-in-home

#71 Jay Currie on 09.19.12 at 3:05 am

2.2 to 1.8…er, 20%. Days on market, well, since January.

Up in the higher end in Victoria the “melt” is 20-40% and there are no sales.

As soft landings go this one seems to be producing a lot of road rash.

#72 futureexpatriate on 09.19.12 at 3:08 am

“I need a backup band”… – Garth

I hear the Doors are available…. “This is the end…. beautiful friend…. this is the end…”

“Father? Yes, son? I want to buy a house….”

“Mother? I want to rennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnntttt!!”

#73 betamax on 09.19.12 at 3:12 am

No accordion, but let me know if you need more cowbell.

#74 KW HOME LIFE on 09.19.12 at 4:04 am

Hey Guys, great house. It’s a heritage home. You get heritage and stone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmHdXKQTAI4&feature=plcp

Only $469,000. And you get a great view of KW. Contact me now.

#75 KW HOME LIFE on 09.19.12 at 4:06 am

Oh, ignore the fact that it has no floors or walls, and a torture chamber in the dungeon. Oh, also ignore the graffiti. Oh, also ignore the fact that it’s uninhabitable.

#76 Linda Pearson on 09.19.12 at 4:27 am

#13Sid on 09.18.12 at 9:53 pm
This is the first time, after years of reading your blog that I am utterly offended! Accordians are awesome! You would be lucky to have one in your backup band.

Maybe so; but then you’d do something stupid like play, “Lady of Spain” and we’d be forced to egg you.

#77 maxx on 09.19.12 at 7:02 am

“Somebody should tell the lady, this ain’t good news.”

Why even bother wasting the time, effort and breath Garth. Thanks to you, a very rapidly growing number of us can see what’s really happening and can ignore the town cryers in MSM.
A litmus test for me is observing what goes on in local supermarkets: markdowns galore, especially on anything in a can, bottle, box or bag. People are diving into reduced produce and couponing like never before. Actual money is very thin on the ground. The biggest pillar of the real economy is beginning to teeter like a metronome. Until debt levels drop dramatically, the economy will continue to decline and RE melt.
Interest rates need to slowly return to normal levels. It will create an incentive for many to pay down debt and also to save.
Anything else simply won’t work.

#78 Gypsy Kid on 09.19.12 at 7:32 am

Hawk, I agree with you. I dont think there will be a 40% drop in GTA for SFHs. At best 30%???? 25 or 20%???

There is too much demand in GTA for SFHs and people are willing to pay a certain price for specific areas….maybe not the spring 2012 prices, but with about 20% drop in prices, people will still buy them.

BIL bought a home for half a million a year ago; someone offered 800 000 not six months later in one of the hot spots in GTA. He refused to sell and is renting it out. I would of sold on the spot!!

#79 █ ♣ █ RENTER - REDEMPTION on 09.19.12 at 7:33 am

Garth thanks for describing me:

I am houseless, pitted by lululemonized-starbuckers-over-latted-iphone-glacing morons who have no cash to cross the street !
And they call me names, man!

And i did not make it on list for your Redemption class!

oh mercy !
i must do another gig!
second one does not need to have amazonian topless kazoo players…

#80 █ ♣ █ RENTER - REDEMPTION on 09.19.12 at 7:34 am

Error: … YOU must do another gig…

#81 rn on 09.19.12 at 7:34 am

I may not know much, but I do know that someone who has the shameless ego to pronounce something like this:

“There will not be another…depression, no financial collapse, bank failures or hyperinflation. Paper money will grow more valuable, not less, as it buys more real estate, car or computing power. Stock markets will be as volatile and changeable as ever, and will neither soar nor crash. Just creep jaggedly higher on the back of earnings.”

is just another hack like so many self-important internet blowhards. The actual world economy is just a bit more complicated and presents rather a few more ways to stumble, and seriously.

The actual world

I’m right so far. And you? — Garth

#82 TurnerNation on 09.19.12 at 8:06 am

Price drop – roughly, a million bucks.

One of C01’s two joke semi listings. Come on now. This thing is worth $800,000 max., in a real market.

$1,785,000 – was 1,865,000 last month.

As per Guava.ca
16 Aug 2012 – C2420587 – M5V – 50 STEWART ST Toronto, Ontario – $1,815,000. Price Change. Aug 16: $1,815,000 Jul 19: $1,865,000. An Amazing , Rare …

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12423163&PidKey=1958866357

#83 syfon on 09.19.12 at 8:30 am

Hi Garth
We all know that you don’t like metals, real estate ect
but picking on accordion.
— C’mon Man ——–

#84 TurnerNation on 09.19.12 at 8:31 am

There’s a rumour of Justin Beaver as GarthFest2012’s opening act??

#85 Mississauga Mel on 09.19.12 at 8:39 am

#64 Hawk

“But for those wishing a 40 – 50% crash in prices, I do have a question: which other major metropolitan cities worldwide can you name that are experiencing such crashes or which have much lower prices than the GTA for comparable housing.”

You must also add in the greenbelt which surrounds the GTA. Land is in tight supply and then factor in the 100000 new residents the GTA receives every year. This will bring the GTA to about 8 million in 20 years. So a 50% correction will not occur with the above stats and further we do not have massive unemployment. Sure the 0% and 5% down crowd will be wiped out but they were never serious owners anyway.

#86 fancy_pants on 09.19.12 at 8:40 am

if you gawk at the numbers without digging deeper it may appear Toronto RE could be on the up but that is not the case. deceptive enough to trick a pigg but not enough to fool us blog dogs.

#87 Steven Rowlandson on 09.19.12 at 8:55 am

The fact that the price of SFH got so high reflects the moral failure of society and its leaders that are involved with or approve of such excesses.

#88 Shortymac on 09.19.12 at 9:01 am

Yay I got in!

I’m seriously having trouble finding a new house to rent because I just got notice that the landlords are taking possession of my current place. Bah!

I was hoping for a glut of housing rentals thanks to the new housing rules killing the market but I guess I’m too early. Hell even finding a 3 bedroom condo is tough without breaking the bank. I’d rather not downsize into a apartment but I might have too.

#89 eaglebay - Parksville on 09.19.12 at 9:03 am

Garth said: “the country’s paper, the Toronto Star”.

The country didn’t know.

Insert, ‘largest.’ — Garth

#90 John on 09.19.12 at 9:03 am

Mr Buyer wrote:

“Where is Truth Hammerer telling us that Trudeau peed Harper’s pants?”

Mr Buyer is a genius. This is good stuff…love your posts.
——
Joe wrote:

“If household consumer debt is at the highest levels ever and now real estate is starting to hold more and more (underwater) homeowners hostage, why shouldn’t domestic consumer purchasing collapse? Wouldn’t this significantly hurt the economy after a year or two?

It would be great if you could write a bit more about your reasoning in this regard in a future post because this is looking more and more like an elephant in the room to me.”

In the very instant that the elephant steps on the dining room table, and someone gets red wine spilt on their new white party dress, the article gets written. Almost simultaneously. That’s a guarantee.

#91 Tony on 09.19.12 at 9:05 am

While detached homes in Toronto will see a decrease in value in the next 5 years, would it be safe to say that they are a little ‘safer’ than other real estate investments in the same area and not as much exposed? I think so

#92 macilrae on 09.19.12 at 9:12 am

What is mostly holding up the Toronto market is the in-flow of cash from China. Chinese middle-class immigrants to Canada see the enormous resources of this country and its tiny population – combined with liberal immigration policy – and they shelter their nest egg here before returning home: perhaps leaving their wife, kids and mother-in-law behind.

#93 EIT on 09.19.12 at 9:39 am

I’ve just learned that Mr. Turner is a CIA stooge.

DAMN YOU GARTH!!!!!!!!!!!!

#94 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.19.12 at 9:39 am

@ #82 TurnerNation

King West is the epicenter of the young and indebted. All they need is one “greater fool” to plop down 20%, which coincidentally is about $360,000 — almost exactly the price of a standard 1-bdrm condo in that area. Now, finding someone who can carry the $1.5M mortgage would be harder to find… but a couple with 2 incomes of $150k-$200k/year would do it (not unheard of in downtown Toronto).

Either that, or they are praying for HAM.

#95 Joe on 09.19.12 at 9:44 am

“Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.”

http://www.moneynews.com/Outbrain/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=FE8A-1

#96 Karie on 09.19.12 at 9:45 am

We were lucky enough to buy our current house 8 years ago. It’s now worth conservatively about $650,000+ with a $100,000 mortgage remaining. Our mortgage is about $1200 a month. We each have about $100,000 in RRSPs.

Is it really worth it for us to buy and rent? Wouldn’t it be better to pay off the mortgage and invest bigger later? Our house is 15 years old and we’d like to finish the basement and will probably need to do the roof and other home maintenance soon. Is it a good idea to buy a house for slightly more than ours with a finished basement, updated, new roof, etc and only increase our mortgage by about $50-$75k now or in the next couple of years?

We definitely want to use our house as part of our retirement fund but not for about 20+ years or so. Even 10+ years down the road, we may consider renting when our kids are older but right now I like my dog, the school boundary and all that and don’t see how renting is worth it (in my case).

Some of my friends are lululemon wearing, latte sipping, coach purse carrying people. I’m positive they could care less if I buy or rent my home. Renters can be so sensitive. :)
I don’t like strong coffee or lattes or walking around in exercise clothes or a purse with a bunch of c’s on it but I don’t judge people from the outside.
There’s a lot more to people than what they wear or drink. Unless it’s alcohol – you can tell something about a person by what alcohol they drink!

#97 Dr. WAYNE on 09.19.12 at 10:22 am

I DISAGREE with you strongly, Garth, when you say that no one will ‘tear up’ at your talk in Toronto. I will bet there will be many who will say, as they walk out of the venue, “WTF did we do” … done so with tears in their eyes.

#98 willworkforpickles on 09.19.12 at 10:28 am

” fuuuuurssstttt

Oh, get lost. — Garth”

This guy is camped out in a crawl space in your attic.

#99 Realtor Commissions on 09.19.12 at 10:34 am

Is there any data or a graph that could show the effect the slowing sales are having on the realtors income?

I would be interested to see that stat.

#100 IM in C on 09.19.12 at 10:44 am

Garth , thank you for taking Toronto Star’s resident real estate shill, Susan Pigg, to task, however gently.

#101 Oceanside on 09.19.12 at 10:45 am

Looked at home sales in East and West Vancouver, about 4,740 listings and sales dropping about 100 per month..June 759, July 655, August 535 and as of a few days ago only 103 sales in the previous 10 days…..Pretty much says it all!

Peter Mansbridge in Saskatchewan on the news, builders saying that 1 million dollar homes are going up everywhere and that Prairie folk have “lots” of disposable income and want huge houses on small lots, soooo much contradiction everywhere.

#102 Coraline on 09.19.12 at 10:50 am

#64: I just did 30 seconds of research to answer your question; see http://tinyurl.com/7zn5vr7

Chicago sfhs declined 39% as of March 2012.

#103 disciple on 09.19.12 at 10:53 am

jess from yesterday…

LBJ was a fictitious character, played by the same actor who was involved in the JFK staged fake assassination (JFK morphed into Jimmy Carter).

Barry Goldwater and Aldous Huxley were the same person. Just think of the ramifications…

#104 Daisy Mae on 09.19.12 at 11:04 am

“BTW, I need a backup band. No accordion.”

**********************

I have a harmonica… (???)

#105 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 11:06 am

Anyone chk out story on Metro paper the one everyone reads while taking the train.

http://www.Metronews.ca. Select Printed edition. Page 24

Headline: Detached homes prices in GTA Soar

Its going to be a nasty crash realtors a nasty crash

#106 Keith in Calgary on 09.19.12 at 11:10 am

A tale of two houses, in two different cities………

1 – Across the street from the condo I rent @ $649K……

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12394345&PidKey=1641610512

2 – Across the continent and owned by a friend @ $675K……

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12394345&PidKey=1641610512

#107 Keith in Calgary on 09.19.12 at 11:13 am

http://www.trulia.com/property/3094749752-110-Loblolly-Reach-Indian-River-Shores-FL-32963

Let’s try that again…….here’s the $675K US house…….

#108 45north on 09.19.12 at 11:14 am

Karie: We were lucky enough to buy our current house 8 years ago. It’s now worth conservatively about $650,000+ with a $100,000 mortgage remaining.

so you think. What about your neighbours? Your house is worth what they sell for.

#109 John on 09.19.12 at 11:26 am

Maxx wrote:

“Until debt levels drop dramatically, the economy will continue to decline and RE melt.
Interest rates need to slowly return to normal levels. It will create an incentive for many to pay down debt and also to save.
Anything else simply won’t work.”
——-
What you’ve said is simply a fact, and facts are unpopular. All this cheering over “avoiding being the Greater Fool” is worthless without absorbing the truth of what you’ve written.

So lets throw that elephant up onto the dinner table one more time. Ready? Here it is again:
———
“There will not be another…depression, no financial collapse, bank failures or hyperinflation. Paper money will grow more valuable, not less, as it buys more real estate, car or computing power. Stock markets will be as volatile and changeable as ever, and will neither soar nor crash. Just creep jaggedly higher on the back of earnings.”
——–

Look. There it is. It’s the elephant. Try saying it’s there. Challenge it. Debate it’s presence or absence. See what “answers” you get. Double talk. Know why? Because that’s how all of us deal with our respective elephants. It’s called denial. And most of us really have no idea what denial is and how it works.

Anyone want to start with one of the “invisible elephant” pillars? How about corporate earnings? A snow job if there ever was one. The whole thing is plugged into a derivatives economy which can’t and must deleverage. Both at the same time. Fact. Normal interest rates and “savers world” are built on that. Fact.

Busting the ponzi down to a “housing market” is false if the ponzi market itself stays propped in the argument.

Guess what a Greater Fool says if challenged that his house value will drop dramatically: “I’ve been right the past four years that it won’t..it’s gone up…and you?”

Sound familiar? One characteristic of the elephant always remains firm: He’s obvious. That’s why the metaphor exists.

#110 Andrew on 09.19.12 at 11:33 am

#29 Cory “It’s different in Calgary as this realtor says it is.”

This one’s in dreamland as well: http://bobsrealestateblog.com/

#111 GM on 09.19.12 at 11:43 am

Here’s an interesting point for discussion/post.
Housing demand seems really high in the GTA (low rental vacancies, relatively decent demand for purchase)
But there is a large buffer:
1. Condos that are being built, but not yet occupied 50 000?
2. Fewer people living in each dwelling — providing the possiblity of consolidation given a major downturn in the housing market/economy (ie people moving in together/splitting up dwellings into multiple units)

How significant is the latter factor?

#112 Tony on 09.19.12 at 11:48 am

Garth someone is badmouthing you on the Globe and Mail website.

mwahahaa

9:36 AM on September 19, 2012

This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore mwahahaa. Show DetailsHide Details

Garth Turner is a self-serving narcissist. He’s been tooting his own horn over an impending housing correction for years, as his basement-dwelling followers salivate over his every worthless word. Never trust a politician.

From the link:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/home-prices-see-weakest-august-increase-in-12-years/article4553189/comments/

A response to this comment:
laughingCON

9:19 AM on September 19, 2012

This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore laughingCON. Show DetailsHide Details

The housing correction is well underway but realtors are doing everthing in their power to manipulate the facts and numbers. Goto http://www.greaterfool.ca and get the information realtors don’t want you to know. Canada faces a long correction down.

Report abuse if you want to.

#113 tkid on 09.19.12 at 12:06 pm

#111,

I don’t know how significant the number of unoccupied condos is, but my landlord has not yet rented out her 400sq foot plus parking unit at an asking rate of $1360.

Either my moving out a little at a time is putting people off, or she has gone over the amount of rent people will pay. Or, even the rental market’s bubble is bursting.

I think it might be the latter as an identical unit plus parking next door had rented out two months ago for $1300.

She may yet regret pushing a good tenant out the door, but there seems to be little loyalty from amateur landlords towards good tenants. God help the real estate agent attempting to rent the unit: the landlord has left the country while the real estate agent shops for a new tenant.

How on earth do you get the paperwork signed if you aren’t in the same continent as your tenant and real estate agent? Wouldn’t one want to look into the tenant’s eyes before saying ‘yes’? Are all landlords this blithe?

#114 DON on 09.19.12 at 12:08 pm

#40 Tim on 09.18.12 at 11:19 pm

Re Renters Rule,
One can dream that you will improve your critical thinking skills and your grammar while you are at it. You just keep waiting for that 40% correction…

RE keeping the faith
Why don’t you start looking into some published stats on real estate prices instead of blindly adhering to your moniker

***********************************

@ Tim

OK Tim: You lack critical thinking as you believe the data the realtors put out. This will be the last time I read your crap. You are most likely young and book learned with no experience. You show either your youth or your ignorance…and yes experienced people can tell. And grammar means very little, if you can’t take part in common sense reasoning. I guess I can’t give you a ZERO for a grade as I might hurt your feelings. Grammar argument really!!! Tim, they have already pulled the rabbit out of the hat, if you are that young do yourself a favor and educate yourself on the real world. Professors who live in Ivory towers and praise your work should be taken with a grain of salt.

Good luck Tim, “Sell now, or forever be an under water slave” Think before you speak, now I know that is not what you have been taught…that is evident. Back up your arguments and please consider your sources.

And if you do not like the subject matter on this blog, why waste your time with us. Go where your logic takes you. To think Canada is different is very ignorant. We have better banks???or is it the close to 1 trillion backed by the CHMC (aka tax payers). History and the future do not wait for you to graduate high school and come up to speed with the real world…but I guess you are listening to your friends, etc all in the same boat. How can so many people be wrong you say…because they blindly follow others and no one dares to ask the right questions. You really need to buy a house in Vancouver before it’s too late. Take your own advice. BUY NOW!

#115 tkid on 09.19.12 at 12:20 pm

*We were lucky enough to buy our current house 8 years ago. It’s now worth conservatively about $650,000+ with a $100,000 mortgage remaining. Our mortgage is about $1200 a month.

Is it a good idea to buy a house for slightly more than ours with a finished basement, updated, new roof, etc and only increase our mortgage by about $50-$75k now or in the next couple of years?*

Karie, you only just finished pontificating about how lucky/fortunate you were to have the mortgage almost paid off … only a hundred grand left to go! If you sell and buy something more expensive, then you are throwing that good fortune away.

#116 Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 09.19.12 at 12:21 pm

“BTW, I need a backup band. No accordion.”

Bubbles has agreed to back you up Garth on his electric guitar. In fact J-Roc will be your DJ and the whole shebang should be a real hoot.

#117 MPM on 09.19.12 at 12:23 pm

A classic radio report this morning. The reporter questions the validity of the report from the BC Egg Producers that sales are way down because of cross border shopping. Funny, I have never heard them question the stats from the local real estate cartel….

#118 Canuck Abroad on 09.19.12 at 12:28 pm

64 / Hawk –
Okay, Ill have a go at that question.

Price decline from peak:
Atlanta 47.8%, Chicago 39.4%, Los Angeles 40.9%, San Francisco 42.5%. (Then there’s Las Vegas, Phoenix, Detroit, Tampa and Miami which are even worse.) Even New York, which Toronto definitely is not, was down 23.4%
Here is the source:
http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/20120307.aspx

Then there’s Dublin, down 50% from the 2007 peak. Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0525/1224316664937.html

In Barcelona, price declines ranged from 32% in nicer neighbourhoods to 55% in rougher areas.
Source: http://www.catalannewsagency.com/news/business/spanish-property-prices-dropped-417-between-2006-and-2011

I could go on and on but you get the idea.
You’re right, it’s not different in Canada.

#119 Old Man on 09.19.12 at 12:30 pm

#104 Daisy Mae – were you the gal from Charleston, WV who claimed me for Sadie Hawkins a few years ago?

#120 Tremblant on 09.19.12 at 12:42 pm

You have mentioned in the past but the other time bomb is the under funded defined benefit pension funds. Most corporations and institutions are responsible for the under funded amount and many 100 % of the amount. However, they can’t pay as the amount is so high if paid they would be bankrupt. Only future is less benefits.

#121 Canuck Abroad on 09.19.12 at 12:44 pm

82 / TurnerNation – I am also shocked by prices of semis in Toronto. That semi was featured in Toronto Life. Comments refer to the continuous smell of the slaughterhouse wafting from nearby. Nice…

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/gimme-shelter/2012/08/22/house-of-the-week-50-stewart-street/#more-159614

#122 broadway skytrain on 09.19.12 at 12:49 pm

oil dropping like a stone – wow – seems unnatural, but here’s hoping gas prices follow

still extremely tight supply of sfh for sale in parts of e van, but… asking prices do seem to be easing slightly ~5%
http://www.realtor.ca/map.aspx#acr:false;ac:false;baths:0-0;beds:0-0;fp:false;gar:false;pmin:0;pmax:0;rmin:0;rmax:0;openh:false;pool:false;stories:0-0;buildingstyle:;buildingtypeid:1;viewtypeid:;waterfront:false;forsale:true;forrent:false;orderBy:A;sortBy:1;LisStartDate:;mapZ:14;page:1;mapC:49.2730576912084, -123.0635089876887;curView:;curStyle:r;leftMin:false;rightMin:false;chkSchl:false;chkTran:false;chkPol:false;chkMed:false;chkWrk:false;chkFire:false;chkAll:false

#123 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 1:06 pm

#119 Canuc

It really is different hear. Espacialy 416 SFH. The ave price surged to over 800k. Now a lot less condos will sell this fall. Volumn of SFH will me soft. But the ratio of SFH to condos will go up and scew the price higher.

Track 6ers read that in the metro, they won’t sell.

Spring 2015 I am calling for a 1m + on ave price of a 416 SFH

Red dots don’t lie

#124 broadway skytrain on 09.19.12 at 1:10 pm

#118 Canuck Abroad on 09.19.12 at 12:28 pm
64 / Hawk –
Okay, Ill have a go at that question.

Price decline from peak:
San Francisco 42.5%.

————————————–
lets try to keep it real SF is a city in CA. within the city limits this is the data…

SF median sale price max 835K – current 705k – 15.6%
SF avg $/sqft max 684 – current 575 – also 15.6%

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Francisco-California/market-trends/

#125 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 1:14 pm

#113 Tony

You got wrong. LaughingCon was the main post, the Garth chirp was hidden in comments.

I think with all the promotion and idlizing LaunghCon give Garth should be an automatic front row seat next to the amozons.

Its going so funny any poor bald basterd that slightly resembles breuce wills will be cut eyed all night lol

While I will be at back row watching all the bald guys get cut eyed. LMAO

#126 Frank le Skank on 09.19.12 at 1:17 pm

#78 Gypsy Kid on 09.19.12 at 7:32 am
The demand in the GTA and anywhere else is partially related to: 1)lose lending practices 2) Home equity. If prices start to fall and people have less equity that means their ability to afford a more expensive house is reduced. Lending from the bank is being tightened, that will also affect peoples ability to buy. The people buying the houses will not be richer than they think, that’s the problem. How many buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy? How many homeowners will want to take a loss on their home and buy another one at a discounted rate? Not enough to continue 7% annual increases in housing prices. Given the current state of household dept, the poor economy and other factors, how far down will prices go until people have enough confidence to buy again? No one knows, we can only make educated guesses. Everyone has opinions based on biases like being a home owner, RE agent, or like myself, waiting to buy. I tend to believe that there will be a 40% drop, but I sometimes wonder how much of that is wishful thinking.

#127 Elchavo on 09.19.12 at 1:30 pm

it’s different in the vag, baby!

http://www.cjme.com/story/breaking-down-housing-boom-what-it-really-means-regina/75910

“He says all things considered there has been a fair amount of balance in the city’s housing supply which has kept prices from reaching unattainable levels that are being seen in places like Vancouver.”

Now if you excuse me i’m gonna go and puke.

#128 jess on 09.19.12 at 1:30 pm

103 disciple on 09.19.12 at 10:53 am

who would play Darius ? Is there more rascism between the arabs and the persians ?

===============
ReligionBy the grace of Ahuramazda am I king; Ahuramazda has granted me the kingdom.

Darius, on the Behistun InscriptionWhile there is no absolute consensus on the kings before Darius, such as Cyrus and Cambyses, it is well established that Darius was an adherent of Zoroastrianism[33] or at least a firm believer in Ahura Mazda. As can be seen at the Behistun Inscription, Darius believed that Ahura Mazda had appointed him to rule the Achaemenid Empire. Darius had dualistic convictions and believed that each rebellion in his kingdom was the work of druj, the enemy of Asha. Darius believed that because he lived righteously by Asha, Ahura Mazda supported him.[34] In many cuneiform inscriptions denoting his achievements, he presents himself as a devout believer, perhaps even convinced that he had a divine right to rule over the world.[35]

In the lands that were conquered by his empire, Darius followed the same Achaemenid tolerance that Cyrus had shown and later Achaemenid emperors would show. He supported faiths and religions that were “alien” as long as the adherents were submissive and peaceable, sometimes giving them grants from his treasury for their purposes.[36] He had funded the restoration of the Jewish temple which had originally been decreed by Cyrus the Great, presented favour towards Greek cults which can be seen in his letter to Gadatas, and supported Elamite priests. He had also observed Egyptian religious rites related to kingship and had built the temple for the Egyptian God, Amun.[37]
================

For example, he said, when a couple of years ago the U.A.E said it was not going to drop its opposition to Iran’s occupation of three disputed Islands in the Gulf and referring to the “Persian Gulf,” large numbers of people rallied in front of the U.A.E embassy in Tehran with a cake that had 35 candles: they were making fun of the U.A.E’s 35-year history, compared to Iran’s 2,500.”
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/09/170927.html

#129 };-) aka D.A. on 09.19.12 at 1:58 pm

F.Y.I.

Units Sales Volumes are starting to heat up here in Kelowna.

SINGLE FAMILY
Volume This Year to Date = 1,618 @ Sept 17, 2012
Same period Last Year = 1,459
Increase +10.9%

STRATA
Volume This Year to Date = 1,013 @ Sept 17, 2012
Same period Last Year = 898
Increase +12.8%

ALL PROPERTY TYPES
Lots, Modular, Rec, SFD, Strata
Volume This Year to Date = 2,924 @ Sept 17, 2012
Same period Last Year = 2,647
Increase +10.46%

Price follows unit sales volumes, up or down.

I repeat…price follows volume.

The sentiment I am hearing is people are, after more than four years, saying “It is what it is. It’s not likely to get worse and eventually will get better”. THAT is when the “SHIFT” happens – as this sentiment catches on and becomes the norm eventually inching prices up and then stepping them up that buyers start to panic thinking they have lost their best opportunity that they start to get stupid again as they were in 2007. The cycle then starts over again.

Of course this will transpire over a number of years -typically 7 to 10. There are also theories of a larger cycle of 21 to 30 years in which there are a series of three boom/bust cycles growing in intensity – Something to do with the generational influences of those who eventually take the reigns of power who never lived through the worst 30 years ago that they ignorantly repeat the mistakes we made then. History does rhyme and the human race is, to a large degree, predictable.

When this all next commence??? I’ll leave up to you to decide. But those numbers should be of interest while doing so I would expect.

#130 Tom from Mississauga on 09.19.12 at 2:10 pm

So with CMHC in the middle and OSFI marching up the flank has Flaherty unleashed the CRA to encircle and wipe out the junior landlords in The War on the House?

http://theeyeopener.com/2012/09/cra-demands-proof-of-fees-in-undergraduate-audit/

Garth, question? RRSP, HBP, junior landlord, GO!

#131 In Garth Almighty not God we Trust on 09.19.12 at 2:14 pm

#112 Tony

“Garth Turner is a self-serving narcissist. He’s been tooting his own horn over an impending housing correction for years, as his basement-dwelling followers salivate over his every worthless word. Never trust a politician.”

They are just jealous of the bearded mystic oracle, all knowing, all seeing, financial tea leaf reader estraordinare, crystal ball gazing denouncer of parliamentarian peckerheads and peckerettes, NYT bestselling author, financial soothsayer without equal, Harley riding badass, Amazon protected and bathed lone voice of financial reason crying out in the HELOC infested wasteland of Canada and last but not least an all round jolly good fellow who tirelessly writes this blog for the free benefit of all Canadians.

#132 Old Man on 09.19.12 at 2:18 pm

There is a great movie called ” Three Days Of The Condor” which relates to Real Estate. The assassin warns Robert Redford from his years of experience as an international hitman how things will work out for him in the end, and it all amounts to his eventual death, and for those that bought Real Estate at the top, you will be going underwater too.

#133 Bill Gable on 09.19.12 at 2:20 pm

“As he drives through Kitsilano in Vancouver’s coveted westside district, real estate agent Chris Frederickson points out the For Sale signs, block after block.

Of 62 active listings, only three homes have sold over the past 30 days in Kitsilano, underscoring the slowdown in residential sales that has hit Canada’s most expensive city for housing. In Greater Vancouver, the number of residential units sold tumbled to 1,670 last month, down 31 per cent from August, 2011.

http://tinyurl.com/92pbks6

#134 truth hammer on 09.19.12 at 2:28 pm

Liberal social engineers in the census bureaucracy caught with their pants down trying to ‘fudge the numbers’ on same sex unions so as to create the idea that liberalism propaganda has been more effective than the facts support….typical

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09/19/census-data-withheld-error-may-have-counted-roommates-as-gay-married/

Apparently..according to the liberal bureaucrats and legacy liberal civil servants anyone living under the same roof as a member of the same sex is gay……I guess this is whats called wishful thinking on the PC homosexual agenda front.

Isn’t this the same as when Turner got caught supporting a UN agenda sponsored by the wacko depraved that would have seen the legal age for forced marriage of girls cut to nine? What kind of pervert does a liberal have to be to fantasize about 9 year old girls? What is in it for the Liberal agenda to reduce the status of tradition?

Theses liberals have no sense of shame when it comes to promoting their twisted visions.

#135 patiently waiting on 09.19.12 at 2:48 pm

FYI: FVREB STATS – Sales are down 22% YOY – as of September 19, 2012, 11 of 19 Working Days

SEPTEMBER 2012 Listings 1539 Sales 481
AUGUST 2012 Listings 1328 Sales 538
SEPTEMBER 2011 Listings 1469 Sales 620

PW

#136 -=jwkimba=- on 09.19.12 at 3:01 pm

#278 There is too much demand in GTA for SFHs and people are willing to pay a certain price for specific areas….”

wrong. People are willing to Borrow money to buy. And when the money dries up?
Game over…

#137 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 3:29 pm

Its all about a headline. The harpo freindly national post has the today

Home Prices eke out smallest augest gain in 12 yeras.

Body of the story no mention of the super hot 416 SFH

Now if the machine wanted to push the story the other way the financial post would have went with this

No end in sight for 416 SFH price gains rest of canada experiamcing a soft month

The power of words

The ‘super hot’ 416 has yet to recover its price level of May. — Garth

#138 Coraline on 09.19.12 at 3:44 pm

#124 Broadway Skytrain
————————————–
lets try to keep it real SF is a city in CA. within the city limits this is the data…

SF median sale price max 835K – current 705k – 15.6%
SF avg $/sqft max 684 – current 575 – also 15.6%

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Francisco-California/market-trends/
———————————-

You’re citing trulia; the poster you challenged is using Case Shiller data. Are you even aware of the difference in reputation? For starters, trulia uses asking prices.

#139 IM in C on 09.19.12 at 3:45 pm

@113 tkid
The going rate for a 400sq.ft. bachelor situated in a central Toronto high rise is $1000/month. Somebody listing for $1360/month will be waiting a long time for a renter!

#140 IM in C on 09.19.12 at 3:49 pm

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1355-halifax-market-comes-off-of-shipbuilding-high

#141 jess on 09.19.12 at 3:51 pm

skimmers wrappers geez

“These defined contribution retirement plans permit largely public sector workers to defer a portion of their compensation. However, don’t make the mistake of confusing them with their 401(k) cousins. There’s a world of difference.”
Insurance companies 457 and 403(b)
why would one invest one’s retirement plan assets (which are already tax-deferred) in a tax-deferred variable annuity?

http://blogs.forbes.com/edwardsiedle/

#142 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 09.19.12 at 4:03 pm

Realtors are in an all out PANIC and they will try to censor anyone who tells the truth. garth I posted a comment and your website on the gobeandmail and the realtors got it removed since they FEAR YOU from the GTA to Vancouver. Realtors HATE freedom and DEMOCRACY and they really hate the truth. They are in PANIC mode and running scared. Get out there fellow blogger and spread the truth and let people know about this blog. Realtors are running scared. Together we can bring down the realtor scum . Realtors need to find a real job since they are USELESS and they know it. It’s going to be a NASTY crash realtors a NASTY crash!

#143 Mr Buyer on 09.19.12 at 4:04 pm

#137 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 3:29 pm
Its all about a headline. The harpo freindly national post has the today

Home Prices eke out smallest augest gain in 12 yeras.

Body of the story no mention of the super hot 416 SFH
………………………………………………….
Smoking man, you are starting to sound like a RE salesman who had a few clients in the distant past that were writers, Bay Street financiers and computer types.

#144 lawboy on 09.19.12 at 4:05 pm

#102

Thank you Caroline, you saved me the bother. When I read the question – Chicago – popped immediately to mind. Good to know the precise drop was 39%.

And before another poster protests that ‘100000 people are coming here’ every year, I say the mass immigration from the third world to Toronto (half of it legal, half of it not) is not going to keep prices up any more than mass illegal immigration from the third world did in Chicago.

#145 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 4:10 pm

Come on Garth I know, you know, that every year aug prices are always lower than may prices.

I call like I see it 416 will not go quitely into the night.

I think you know it to.

#146 zeeman1 on 09.19.12 at 4:13 pm

#137 Smoking Man.

There aren’t enough people who can float 800K plus houses in the 416, especially with the credit wall many are hitting and rising food and utility expenses that are exceeding inflation. the market here has corrected before and it will again, but given all the government and financial players in TO it will remain somewhat insulated.

#147 Frank on 09.19.12 at 4:24 pm

A correction yes, but a housing crash in the GTA is just nonsense, maybe condos, but it will be short lived. Prices at best will stagnate.

#148 Form Man on 09.19.12 at 4:55 pm

#129 DA

it is telling that you neglected to mention that total listings are increasing faster than sales. I repeat, prices will continue to fall until MOI is below 6 months. We are a long way from there……..

#149 jess on 09.19.12 at 5:07 pm

26 salonist
debt peonage – rent seeking revenue streams
In early 2012, FHFA released the FHFA Strategic Plan for Enterprise Conservatorships

At year end, all FHLBanks exceeded the minimum statutory capital requirement of 4 percent of total assets and their risk-based capital requirements. The FHLBanks ended 2011 with total assets of $766.4 billion, down from $878.3 billion at the end of 2010.
…together the enterprises guaranteed roughly
100billion per mo in new mortgage production representing about three of every four mortgages being originated.

In June 2011, to address deficiencies in the servicing and delivery process, FHFA began a project to harmonize Enterprise seller-servicer contracts. The overall goal of the project is consistent contract enforcement

On February 27, 2012, FHFA launched the first pilot for bulk REO property sales in Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and parts of Florida, some of the areas most affected by the national housing
finance crisis

#150 Don't read his post on 09.19.12 at 5:51 pm

#74 KW HOME LIFE on 09.19.12 at 4:04 am
Hey Guys, great house. It’s a heritage home. You get heritage and stone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmHdXKQTAI4&feature=plcp

Only $469,000. And you get a great view of KW. Contact me now.

#75 KW HOME LIFE on 09.19.12 at 4:06 am
Oh, ignore the fact that it has no floors or walls, and a torture chamber in the dungeon. Oh, also ignore the graffiti. Oh, also ignore the fact that it’s uninhabitable.

Is this a joke? That guy is a really shitty salesperson.
If it’s such a great buy why wouldn’t a realtor buy and flip it?
Funny stuff

#151 DonDWest on 09.19.12 at 6:08 pm

http://freefrombroke.com/reasons-not-rich-wealthy/

Garth, here is an individual who accuses people who rent as big spenders who blow a potential downpayment away on I-Pods, flat screens, cable, cars, eating out, etc. I wonder if this guy has seen what the average homeowner spends to furnish his/her home? Trust me, it’s a lot more than any renter. In fact, most renters I know go out of their way to spend as little as possible on furnishings.

What’s sad is how many people who agree him. The mentality that home owners are “responsible adults”; while renters are “impulsive and irresponsible spenders” runs amok even to this day. Keep in mind, this article was written by an American AFTER the housing crash.

Do you think this guy works as a realtor for a living? The whole article reeks of a subtle sales pitch. Deprive/liberate your life of all possessions! Spend 70% of your income for that mortgage in THE neighbourhood close to the downtown. It’s actually being thrift!

#152 bubble head on 09.19.12 at 6:28 pm

A 20% drop in home prices is only a retreat of the last two years. If you were waiting for two years or less then you have gained nothing.

Garth-
home prices in September never reach the price level in May.
this year’s price trend is similar to previous year’s price trend.

#153 Realtors don't like realtors either.... on 09.19.12 at 7:25 pm

On a lighter note…. blog dogs… this is who runs OUR COUNTRY – HORNY PATRONAGE dudes…

Maygan Sensenberger, 23, is expected to enter a plea on charges of uttering threats against her 69-year-old husband, Manitoba Liberal Senator, Rod Zimmer, during an Ottawa-to-Saskatoon flight last month.

The guy she married is older than her dad!!!

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/1808827911001

Here is a parody of this sickness of old chasing the young, the lyrics are:

If you really really really really love me
You’d never make me hang out with your family
Your mum sucks and your dad really hates me
When I try to borrow money he berates me
Somehow he thinks that I’m too old for you
‘Cause you’re 19 and I’m 52
He can’t see that you really really really really really really love me
You really really really really really really really really love me
If you really really love me

Senators, god help us…..

#154 Junius on 09.19.12 at 7:28 pm

#134 truthless hammer,

You said, “Theses liberals have no sense of shame when it comes to promoting their twisted visions.”

And you do? The shameless and hateful crap you spew here every day is a constant reminder of how vicious, vacuous and mindless the neandercon crowd is.

Do you not have anything better to do?

#155 Realtors don't like realtors either.... on 09.19.12 at 7:28 pm

# 134 Truth Hammer, here’s an answer!!!

Please see above, Canadian Sentors apparently want to wed 9 year olds.

Sleeze ball Rod Zimmer was 55 when his wife to be was 9.

#156 Terry on 09.19.12 at 7:42 pm

She took over job from Tony Wong who was on some real estate board.

#157 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.19.12 at 7:44 pm


Ooohhhh baby, In The Summertime. GW my ass. The seasons are shifting!
*
Printing Money “The greatest enemy facing the people isn’t “Al Qaeda”, or Muslims, or Russia, or China or any of the other proffered scapegoats for the public outrage. The greatest enemy facing the people is and always has been private central banks issuing all of the public currency as a loan at interest.” wrh.com; China – Japan “China could use its position as Japan’s largest creditor or other economic leverage if Tokyo doesn’t back down in a heated territorial dispute, a senior Chinese researcher said.”; Banks and sociopaths Or should that read Banks are sociopaths? Bank of Japan New QE; Banx Up to their old trix; The White House American tax dollars at work; Banxters Bonuses while the middle class are like pulverized oranges, making juice; In Praise Of Medieval England; Rising Food Prices because of a different reason; Uniform layoffs Prisoners now making uniforms.
*
Iran – Israel Wag the dog; Surprises galore China – Japan, Israel – anyone who disagrees with them, 0:44 clip “I have long considered presstv the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’; and when this site goes down for English-speaking viewers, you can almost bet real money that something nasty is about to happen here.” wrh.com and China – Japan F-22s in Alaska, so the US is ripe for a war; One Reason only — “The previous record for DHS ammo purchases was 500,000 rounds in the run up to the 2008 financial collapse which WikiLeaks cables show the government knew was coming and planning for since 2007. With DHS ammo purchases in the last 6 months along now at nearly 3 times the previous record set in 2008 the question is what are they preparing for?”; Military Ind. Empire loves trouble; BPA The fat are getting fatter; Fast and Furious The Bovine Excrometer just exploded; 7:51 clip ‘Net freedoms going; Mitt Romney Doesn’t matter how low in the polls he is, if the Rothschilds / Rockefellers want him at the top, he will be elected; Engineered Viruses lead to mass vaccinations.

#158 Ken R on 09.19.12 at 7:59 pm

People need a dose of reality. Where in the world does an average worker live in a 600k mansion with granite and stainless for doing an average job. The marketplace will always balance on it’s own. Canadians are due for a swift kick in the ass.

#159 TurnerNation on 09.19.12 at 8:00 pm

#96Karie on 09.19.12 at 9:45 am

Don’t do it. Simple math.

You spend up to 100k on renos + 100k mortgage debt = 200k debt paying 3-4% interest.
You hold 200k RSPs assets maybe earning 3-4% interest.
Net change in wealth = 0! Every year.

You’ll have locked yourself into a debt prison. A single, illiquid asset.

And you can never reno is fast enough to keep up with the times.
Almond appliances scream 1970s.
Kitchens with frosted ceiling panels, flouresent lights behind, equals late 1980s.
Granite & Stainless = 2000s.
Faux stone or translucent tile backsplashes = 2010.
You get the trend. Whatever you add now will in 10-15 years’ time be dated.

Now, do you have any tips as to peoples’ drinks and their habits? Seriously – I’m not a big drinker…

#160 Spiltbongwater on 09.19.12 at 8:35 pm

Garth always points out his predictions that come true. He rarely or never points out his predictions that don’t happen. Guess we will see if his 100% guarantee that BoC interest rates will be higher by Christmas comes true in a matter of months.

Dropping the amortization period equaled a 1% rate hike. I win. — Garth

#161 Editor on 09.19.12 at 8:37 pm

#111, #113 The question of how the real estate bubble has also distorted the rental market is interesting. Some renters feel like they’re treated more like house sitters or caretakers – except the money flows in the wrong direction. Some folks take the ‘lord’ in landlord a little too seriously!

#162 Devore on 09.19.12 at 8:58 pm

Speaking of accordions… saw a person playing one by the seawall path while riding my bike today. Not just any person. A woman. And not just any woman either. An asian woman. A tiny little one. That’s not something you see every day.

#163 Robert on 09.19.12 at 8:59 pm

Spoke to My friendly bank today and asked about the mortgage business and was told it is near non existent. Was then told that of the deals they are looking at that many of them are not completed because the appraisals are coming in 10% to 15% BELOW assessed value. I am afraid that the day of selling your home above assessed value is a thing of the past. I am afraid that the train has already left the station and we are about to head into phase two of this correction. Once phase two which is public awareness is complete it will enter phase three which will be sheer panic and homes will be advertised for the amount of the mortgage..

#164 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 9:00 pm

#144 Mr Buyer on 09.19.12 at 4:04 pm

Not a real estate salesmen, just an owner of a tiny bungalow in long branch, I unloaded all my other properties 1 in 2007, 1 in Jan 2009 the low point, which I used all the loot and then some and went all in stock market. My son and I sold our 2 condos last year.

So huge crash would befit me and my kids, I m wishing for one.

I look at the hood, with an un-biased eye, I study how stocks and the herd react to event and news, pure Dr Spock logic, and what I see I report. And you know what. I usually bang on.

And Remember where you hear this grass hopper, I just made it up.

It’s just as hard to get it all wrong as it is to get it all right.

So I would say we have many skilled people in this room

#165 Smoking Man on 09.19.12 at 9:10 pm

#147 zeeman1 on 09.19.12 at 4:13 pm

A couple that work for Govt can easily afford it.

Income paradyne in most peoples minds is set to low, in other words, most people think that making 100k a year is great money. There are thousands and thousands of people that make way more, know a guy who sells stuff at a flee market that has never had a year under 250K CASH MONEY

In my hood its reported that the annual family income is 80k.

Guy, Two doors down owns a big auto repair business. Pays himself 45K a year, the biz makes well over 1 million in profit. That becomes a stat.

Tones and tones of money in this city don’t kid yourself.

But you need to be in business.

#166 Devore on 09.19.12 at 9:17 pm

#136 -=jwkimba=-

#278 There is too much demand in GTA for SFHs and people are willing to pay a certain price for specific areas….”

wrong. People are willing to Borrow money to buy. And when the money dries up?

Oh, they’ll still be willing to pay a certain price for specific areas.

That’s a pretty empty statement. A truism. One of those things people say to sound smart, without actually saying anything.

Buyers are always willing to pay a certain price for what they want to buy. That’s kind of what “buying” means.

#167 Devore on 09.19.12 at 9:20 pm

#139 IM in C

The going rate for a 400sq.ft. bachelor situated in a central Toronto high rise is $1000/month. Somebody listing for $1360/month will be waiting a long time for a renter!

This is the problem with anecdotes. There is always someone who will pay $1300 for a closet-sized apartment. Just like there is someone paying $1700 for a 1 bedroom. But you can’t base your business plan counting on stupid people to give you money and keep you afloat. Can you?

#168 McLovin on 09.19.12 at 9:28 pm

DA – That’s called a Bear trap but with your 78 yrs experience I am sure you know that. Kelowna will drop 35-45% more before hitting the bottom in 5-7 yrs.

#169 TNT on 09.19.12 at 9:33 pm

37- AprilNewwest

Not too sure what i said to tweek you.
Perhaps you should direct your anger towards the banksters who have allowed this mess to happen.
Think about it, tight fisted banksters lending money to high risk applicants.
Doesn’t make much sense since they have projection charts for everything.
They still cash out, always.
I agree with Garth on many things but i have made good solid returns on metals.
I sold a great house not because i wanted to but because i suspected the market was going to drop.
It was a major deal.
I feel bad for the sincere hardworking people who bought homes because they knew no better, who have been force fed/ brainwashed expected lifestyles by banks, press, piers, tv, radio..
Home prices go down interest rates will go up.
Ying for yang if you have no cash.
I have seen the stats, divorce, suicide, fallout caused by the manipulated markets.
That pisses me off.
Coles notes 2.0

#170 45north on 09.19.12 at 9:48 pm

I need a backup band. No accordion.

“these are the days of miracles and wonder”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=e26qTIydkG0

telltale signs of Montgomery County, PA:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/are-you-seeing-what-im-seeing

you realize how desperate a home seller must be to try and unload a home in this market.

it’s different here, as Mark Hanson says, in the US as the housing market fell, interest rates were lowered in order to stimulate demand. Faced with a falling housing market, Canada cannot lower its interest rates. Mark Hanson says that in the US, there is a large inventory of non-performing houses. I think that in Canada the banks cannot keep non-performing houses.

#171 salonist on 09.19.12 at 9:48 pm

“ah the university”

http://www.e-reading.org.ua/chapter.php/83215/21/Collier_-_Fancies_and_Goodnights.html

#172 aggie on 09.19.12 at 10:16 pm

accordion for sale, collector’s item…

#173 vic_guy on 09.19.12 at 11:51 pm

@ 152 bubblehead

Maybe remedial math is required ?

Just a placeholder for real numbers, assume 10% per year for 2 years. This will true for some market in Canada. Used percentages, substitute decimals for your calculator and used 100 as an easy number to work with.

100k*110%=110k year 1 on the way up
110k*110%=121k year 2 on the way up

121k*80% = 96.8k year 3 on the way down

Add in the real world costs if realtors, taxes, etc and the buyer is further behind.

#174 Randman on 09.19.12 at 11:56 pm

Yeah Garth..you’re right about real estate …

But you are very very wrong about a rebound in the US..

“America’s decline over just one decade was from the third most economically free in the world to the eighteenth. What does this mean, in practice? The report measures economic freedom in five broad areas: size of government, legal system and property rights, sound money, freedom to trade internationally, and regulation. Within these categories, however, this painstaking report measures 42 variables. Or, as the Institute puts it in still broader terms, economic freedom is made up of four key ingredients: personal choice, voluntary exchange, freedom to compete, and security of privately owned property.”

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/walter-donway/us-economic-freedom-retreat-rout

#175 truth hammer on 09.20.12 at 2:50 am

#154 J…….anything that is said against the liberal agenda is ‘hate’….that’s rich.

#176 Hawk on 09.20.12 at 2:10 pm

#118 Canuck Abroad on 09.19.12 at 12:28 pm

Fair point about Chicago and Sanfrancisco.

Dublin and Barcelona have that because the economies of Ireland and Spain are in absolutely terrible shape. Do you see our economy being anywhere in the same situation as Ireland and Spain?