Whether they use the viz or not is unknown, but the CBC’s National spent some serious camera time with me this week. The corp thinks Vancouver’s housing market is in such danger of blowing up that it’s sending in Peter Mansbridge. The segment from Canada’s most delusional-and-regretting-it city is slated to air next Thursday.
I think you know how this plays out. Badass cowboy blogger pontificating on a double-ender from Toronto while shocked and offended local realtors and academics recoil. After all, Vancouver is special, they’ll argue, being the only city in the world which (pick one) is (a) running out of land (credible until you see Surrey), (b) overrun with immigrants (except for Winnipeg and Toronto), (c) actually affordable (when you ignore all the unaffordable parts), and (d) is totally worth spending 90% of your income on a house.
But we know better. There is nothing sustaining the Van market – which threatens to be a role model for the GTA – except debt and desire. Prices are 25% above those in the heart of Toronto, while incomes are 25% less, with 60% fewer people. The savings rate in BC is now negative 9%, and more young people are leaving than arriving – in part because real estate’s out of reach. Net migration into the province has plunged from levels ten and twenty years ago, again due to the housing barrier.
It’s no wonder sales are crumbling while listings have swollen and buyers are gone. The much-hyped Asian invasion, largely a marketing myth, has vanished. After the average SFH reached the absurd level of $1.2 million, while salaries stagnated, there was no place to go but down. Now supply is swamping demand, and prices are doing the expected. The downside could easily drop the median price by 30% or more by early 2013.
This would have happened whether or not the feds trashed long mortgages, upped the lending standards bar or stopped insuring $1 million houses. Those moves just advanced the inevitable, while turning realtors pissy.
Like Larry Yatkowsky, the realtor-god-blogger whose ‘Yatter Matters’ posts are lapped up by the moss-encrusted, basement-dwelling, latte-imbued, lululemonized house hornies who hang on his very words. Now, apparently, I share blame for the collapse of this oversexed, wobbly, unsustainable market.
“An invisible force,” he says, “has guided Buyers and Sellers of Vancouver homes. An unprecedented number of Sellers have listed their homes for sale while at the same time many Vancouver home buyers have decided that they are ‘not buying now’.”
How could this collective madness have happened, he asks?
“In the blogging world one might look to Garth Turner’s menu of scribbles where as a proclaimed ‘bear’ blog, fear and doom are served up like blue plate specials on a daily basis. That darkness – the kitchen where he crafts his servings, bring many to follow only to turn and twist in the air like the starlings trying to find a safe place.”
I’m not even sure what that means, but it sounds nasty. Like avian influenza. And Larry calls it ‘destructive.’
Imagine that. It’s a bad thing when imaginary Mainland Chinese stop ravishing the city’s housing stock, when buyers go on strike against greedy sellers, when prices crest and retreat, when the ‘buy now or buy never’ experts eat turf and working families get the faintest of hope they might actually someday own. Only a realtor, writing and speaking in his own self-interest, would think otherwise. And blame a sweet guy like me.
Luckily I don’t care.
By the way, on the CBC shoot all the producer really wanted to talk about was when to buy a condo. Not yet, I said sternly.
“But you hear so many things,” she said, as only a property virgin could. “My parents want me to buy, and so does the real estate agent. They say I’m just throwing away my money on rent.” So I told her how the guy owning her condo is subsidizing her as a tenant. He’s the one throwing.
I happened to look over and saw her gaze lifting to a glass tower, a crane thrusting from its top. She misted, aroused.
***
So it’s time to have another chat in Toronto. I will be speaking on the evening of Tuesday, October 23rd, dispensing pearls of wisdom and predictions at a free event which is worth every damn cent. Details will be published here in coming days, along with a link to reserve a seat or two. The usual rules apply. Guaranteed admittance if you’re hot.
224 comments ↓
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I guess turnernation is on a date or something.
Yeah, let’s go with something.
Argh I have a kung-fu competition scheduled for that evening, sorry I’ll miss you.
Hey Garth,
Any plans for a Saskatoon trip? This city needs a strong dose of reality.
Thanks. I thought you might have mentioned the madness eminating from the USA today. Printing vast amounts of money, encouraging people to go further into debt. Have they all become unhinged? No mention of bringing manufacturing back to the USA. People are supposed to feel wealthier because house prices go up so they’ll spend lots of money at Walmart? I studied a lot of economics in university. I never came across this theory.
But Garth, according to Larry we all are doomers and just blindly follow you!!!
I like your blog because I always believe in every issue: economic, political, or otherwise there are always two viewpoints.
Unfortunately the MSM in Vancouver over the last 8-10 years has only given one viewpoint (the RE industry).
I’ll never forget how manipulated everyone became: friends, coworkers, family. Stupid lines like “we have the mountains, ocean, olympics, rich asians.” Talk about a cult following……….
In closing I’d just like to say thanks for giving everyone some sanity in realizing we’re not alone in thoughts on Vancouver RE.
I know that Vancouver has always had a bit of a premium over most Canadian cities, but it is completely out of control now.
You give the alternate view that is so badly missing from the MSM if Larry has a problem with that he should stop whining. He’s been a realtor for a long time and he must have saved for the downturn as any smart salesman would in a cyclical industry.
#1 Mark
I thought refresh was F5
Finally it’s a great feeling to be a renter in Vancouver.
I sold somewhat too soon (3 years ago) but I’m convinced I’ll buy much cheaper in another 3 years or so :)
Would it be OK to dress as the elfin F (my Halloween costume this year) to your seminar?
Looking forward to the tuesday night “chat”, and may I add a big thank you to you Mr Turner for your pathetic blog. Thanks man.
So Garth,when are you going to visit my separatist province…
The answer is b–Vancouver is overrun with immigrants
And bigots. — Garth
The Asian invasion is not a marketing myth. Walk around Richmond, Surrey, South Central Van, East Van and tell me how many non-asians you see
Because you see people of Asian extraction does not mean they invaded. Probably been there longer than you. — Garth
I just looked at MLS . What are the chances that a 1903 Sqft house will still sell for 1 Million ?
Zero in my opinion but good luck anyways
MLS®: V969462
Garth, I am hoping for a post covering the impact of the Quebec election on the Ottawa-Gatineau area. As you know, it is really different here…
Will you come to Quebec City ? I hope so! Wish to hear live from you. You may be surprised by the attendance!
Smirking while reading…..most enjoyable read…..for many it sucks you’re right , on tv eh? I guess now they believe too??
Will this fall in the Toronto be the last kick at the can before everything tanks? I’ve noticed houses listed for over $1 million are getting trimmed. We checked out a fetching house in Riverdale listed a bit over $1 million for 3 weeks in Aug, pulled last week, and relisted this week with a $100k price cut. Listings in the $500k range appear to be doing ok, selling for over asking, but how long will that last?
Garth, thank you for answering my question from two columns ago.
I just hope that me and the missus are worthy.
The housing market is crashing in Toronto as Sales have STALLED for both houses and condos. A sea of for sale signs are everywhere and realtors are in an all out panic posting daily on Garths blog. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors a nasty crash.
Do I get a front row seat
I can not wait to see you on the National and see you in Toronto on the 23rd Garth :)
you are the best thanks for all the bubble info over the past couple years. Looks like you were right… It is NOT different here.
Sweet… we have a hot date in Oct Garth
Real tough times coming to all those that bought RE with 5% down and drank the HGTV Kool-Aid in Canada.
Canada is so screwed it is not funny anymore.
** Manufacturing is gone. We can’t compete even against the USA now where workers make $12.00 bucks an hour and can buy nice homes for $100,000K vs Canada where they want $25.00 per hour and homes cost $700,000K. Can you spell screwed.
** For Lease Signs everywhere on commercial properties??? I guess all the businesses closed down.
** Gov’t workers are getting layed off right and centre. This is the middle class who soon will be battling for the Mc Jobs in Canada.
** Construction industry is slowing down. You know what that did to every other country (China, USA, Spain, Ireland, Greece etc etc) – 50% drop in RE. This industry employees about 1.5 million people. Bye, Bye RE and jobs.
** 70% of Canadians live pay to cheque to pay cheque and have no retirement plan. Can you say eating out of the trash can soon for many.
** All the above will cause a negative feedback loop in Canada and much pain
** Many homes on MLS are empty – Can you say HGTV virgins are going belly up ** bankrupt**. I believe CHMC this year alone lost $126 million dollars. Yup you the taxpayer will be paying for this.
If you are a HGTV virgin and have cash out there start low balling any homes you are interested by 50%. The RE crash has started. You HGTV virgins get out there and go on MLS and just send an e-mail to your local realtard and low ball the homes you are interested from the comfort of your home. Don’t waste your time going to open houses etc. Finally a home is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay! So get out there and start LOW BALLING!!!!! those used car sales people aka agents!!!!
Garth thanks for the great service you are doing and educating the 90% in Canada who are not financial smart and gobble up whatever the media & realtards tell them!
If this shit with the Fed priming the pumps doesn’t stop in the States then I’m calling it right now Bank of Canada will be dropping their rate by a quarter point. There is a world of hurt coming down the pipe for manufacturers and a world of hurt for consumers as this will drive the price of gas up.
I have never looked forward to a TV program as I am now…
Garth, your thoughts please on the Federal Reserve announcement today and what it means for the US and Canadian economy. Thanks.
Same as the last time. — Garth
Calgary – Edmonton – Red Deer – Fort Mcmurray home prices.
Bubblelicious baby, bubblelicious. It’s gonna be a nasty price crash.
Great post Garth.
And for the nervous blogdogs out there (or the ETF-curious) :
Stocks at Multiyear Highs? Don’t Be Shocked
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/09/13/stocks-at-multiyear-highs-dont-be-shocked.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003
Toronto Condos Sold – September 1-12 Google Doc
Sales data is rendered electronically so there may be a few duplicates.
Bear Blog??? Amazonian at times, with a few other sidebar diversions, but a BEAR BLOG???
Hardly, just a guy trying to prevent the bulk of property virgins from committing financial suicide in this era of over-priced shit boxes in our neighbors’ northern land.
For this the Realtor has libeled you? Gonna Be a long year.
One question to you Garth.
For my portfolio that is based in the US, I was thinking of buying REITS in the states that buy up MBS (mREITS) , which work the spread to make that juicy dividend.
With what Bernanke has announced today, the Fed buying up MBS’s for this round of QE, would you recommend going ahead with my strategy? Keep in mind this is only for my US portfolio, not my Canadian one.
Currently you make on a mREIT in the states a 13 to 17% dividend, that’s what I’m interested in. Looking for input, so I’m hoping you’ll take the time to answer.
@ # 20 Smoking Man
You don’t have the balls to show up.
Mr. Yatter Matters, how many people rush to post furst/first on your weblog? Right. I thought so.
Realtors in a panic already.
Did no one pick up on Bernanke *not* specifying a timeframe on how much fed purchases are going to last? I remember reading on some blog that the US economy was back on the road to recovery so why all the stimulus!? ;)
Anyways, on top of your REITs, hopefully folks have some exposure to commodities including gold and silver because the last 2 QE programs have only pushed prices higher and we are about to see history repeat itself.
#20 Smoking Man – you are out of luck and should know by now that there will be no front row seat for you, as Garth reserves them all ‘ exclusively ‘ for his hot babes!
“An invisible force,” he says, “has guided Buyers and Sellers of Vancouver homes. An unprecedented number of Sellers have listed their homes for sale while at the same time many Vancouver home buyers have decided that they are ‘not buying now’.”
Christ, I thought he was going to launch into an explanation of the “invisible hand of the free market” and it’s natural, if somewhat slow, self-correcting dynamics, and then he tries to blame Garth. How does he stand to look at himself in the mirror every morning? What will he do if he ever comes to realize how he has been living off of people’s misery?
Smok’in dude, # 178, 187,
“The machine just changed the rules.”
“You wana hedge this Buy Stocks. Buy Real Estate.”
“wages and more jobs will rise drasticaly.”
——————————————
This…is a balance sheet issue. The Cattle are maxed out, debt wise. Offer them free money @ no points, but condition it that they must purchase goods and the herd will pass, as ‘saturated sponge theory’ (SST tm) applies.
Garth’s fortune 500 hundred are stupid with cash. They’re hoarding cause they see no growth, going forward. Bonds with negative rates? The fed printing alone means little, without takers, they won’t get the desired inflation. No flow, No show. Best case we get a 25 point push down and a mild market bounce. Nothing will fundamentally change without some major deleveraging. Guess what this means for assets, employment and RE in Canader?
What’s smart money (and multiple dogs) know that you, surprisingly don’t?
Your expectations pasted above, are 100%, incorrect
The whole, I’m prescient thingy, still needs work : )
take care
Blacksheep
Garth rarely ever posts about bears…. squirrels sometimes, amazons often, gold bugs regularly, house-horny property virgins always, but rarely bears.
Table 8: Institutions with Largest Total Transaction Amounts (Not Term-Adjusted) across Broad-Based Emergency Programs
(Borrowing Aggregated by Parent Company and Includes Sponsored ABCP Conduits)
***From December 1, 2007 through July 21, 2010***
Citigroup Inc. – $ 2.5 trillion
Morgan Stanley – $2.0 trillion
Merrill Lynch & Co. – $1.9 trillion
Bank of America Corporation – $1.34 trillion
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom) – $868 billion
Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. – $853 billion
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. – $814 billion
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (United
Kingdom) 212 – $541 billion
Deutsche Bank AG (Germany) – $354 billion
UBS AG (Switzerland) – $287 billion
JP Morgan Chase & Co. – $391 billion
Credit Suisse Group AG (Switzerland) – $262 billion
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. – $183 billion
Bank of Scotland PLC (United Kingdom) – $181 billion
BNP Paribas SA (France) – $175 billion
Wells Fargo & Co. – $159 billion
Dexia SA (Belgium) – $159 billion
Wachovia Corporation – $142 billion
Dresdner Bank AG (Germany) – $135 billion
Societe Generale SA (France) – $124 billion
All other borrowers – $2,639 (Including Canadian banks)
Total: $16.1 trillion
Federal Reserve presents this to Congress with little MSM fanfare or discussion. The only bailout discussion centred around the $700 billion TARP program in 2008. Never went far enough down the rabbit hole…
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf page 131
This is the backdrop that you have to keep in mind as The Federal Reserve launches another QE program which is now “open ended” to delay a deflationary blackhole.
@ #29 Canadian Watchdog on 09.13.12 at 10:55 pm
Toronto Condos Sold – September 1-12 Google Doc
Sales data is rendered electronically so there may be a few duplicates.
_____________________
Wow – interesting… I didn’t do an exact count, but a quick scan makes me think 90% of condo sales this month were under asking.
Oh Oh …. i wonder why the toilet of a property Larry has listed for 8,500,000 million has’nt sold, its been on the market for about a year… i bet it sells for about 5.5 million… he’s gonna be a grump until it sells.
Sales to listings has been abut 25% lately worse than 2008
WORSE THAN 2008
Its only just gettn started,
Thanks Garth
People, don’t bother asking Garth about the feds moves. He sees nothing wrong with printing money and is still counting on that U.S. revival as a result.
The U.S. economy will rebound when it repatriates its overseas manufacturing, produces most of its own resources (including oil) and can convinces people that shopping dollar stores and Walmart is self defeating in the long run. So as you can see, its a long way off. Until then, we have fed rallies ever few quarters!!!
It was hardly a pivotal event. You guys should get out more. — Garth
Man Garth, have you ever thought about writing romance novels? This blog is like watching a slo-mo train wreck and I just can’t look away…..oh wait….is that a construction crane in the distance….nope… just couldn’t see through the mist.
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I am seeing figures in the Vancouver and surrounding areas down 25 to 30% on all forms of Real Estate, as the bidding war to the bottom is beginning to form.
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“Leisure Suit” Larry probably blames Garth for the Canucks losing to the Bruins.
Realtors in Vernon are saying home sales are ahead of last year. True, but prices are way lower than last year and still dropping. See quite a few homes here for sale and with reduced signs on them also.
Re: #5 prairieperson on 09.13.12 at 10:09 pm
Just like Japan their housing market will move sideways for the next couple of decades. The only thing that will go up in price will be food as other commodities will crash and burn once the U.S. election is over.
Interesting thought, blogging impacting popular behavior at the same level as the mainstream media does. While I think there is a real chance of this happening blogging will not likely reach equal footing until high speed internet is more or less universal across the vast country of Canada. Right now the low hanging fruit is being picked off quite effectively but many of us are still communicating with one another as we did on bulletin boards in the early 80s and 90s (text based that is). A few youtube videos on how to make good screencasts and video clips as well as how to cite sources combined with an easy to use open source video editing (windows movie maker will do) screen capture suite (there are a few free ones available now) as well as universal fibre optic to the home and we will reach critical mass in the whole production/consumption model espoused by some. Universal Fibre optic to the home should be an election issue next election (it is by far the best bang for the buck) and the government should make it an infrastructure project. The lines can be leased by private entities but a nationalized service would be best. Perhaps even a Canadian branch of Ubuntu with high security features and biometrics in association with new HD cam and mike technology (just spit balling). Government bricks and mortar cost will likely fall dramatically.
OMG! is there a scarier thought than a realtor turning in the widening gyre and giving vent to Yeatsian poetic visions?
“That darkness – the kitchen where he crafts his servings, bring many to follow only to turn and twist in the air like the starlings trying to find a safe place.”
Ugh!
Smoking Man on 09.13.12 at 10:32 pm
Do I get a front row seat
In order to give SM a front row seat, we should only give it to him if he will share his thoughts on a) shrinking universe b) home schooling children with no teachers (did he send his kids to school or sold them out to those mutant teachers :)) or c) a sililoquay or cilllillokway (rebel!) on booze, broads and high rollin’.
Come on, Garth. Give him the stage for a few moments. Play “another brick in the wall” in background. I’ll drive him back to Mimico with 3 Amazons and then return them north…
Re: #34 n1tro on 09.13.12 at 11:08 pm
The opposite will happen this time. A two day suckers bounce in gold and silver then the inevitable crash. The only thing that will rise in price will be food prices for Americans.
Garth. You have a good grasp of the headwinds facing RE in Canada, and your advice in equities has been robust in the past and present as well.
However, your disdain for Gold has, and will likely lead you in the wrong direction for your advice in PMs. Agreed that people should not put all of their eggs in one basket, and there is a lot of noise coming from the fringes of opinion (guns, gold crowd) that should be ignored. However, I think there is more reason every passing day to have a reasonable (10-30%) fraction of your assets in PMs as an insurance policy; inflation, currency crisis, etc. With so much bad debt in the world that is being preserved instead of written-down (at the expense of recovery to protect bondholders) these “coordinated actions” by central banks might affect currencies in an unpredictable way at some point. Today our friends to the South showed everyone that they are flailing about with the only tools they know how to use, as they panic in the realization that the global economy is decelerating rapidly.
In one of your old posts (2010/07/20), you said: “Second action: I’d exit precious metals. Anyone caught long in gold and silver in the months to come will get a real good lesson in the dangers of avarice. Have you made money in the past three years? Absolutely. So harvest that gain. Once it’s clear even to the sackcloth set that America will never default, never devalue, that minor European countries can keel over largely unnoticed and the global economy is actually expanding, PMs go back to being interesting rocks that impress dentists and werewolfs”
In response to your advice, I have to say that one should never say never. There are many possibilities, intentional, unintentional, and unimaginable. Most of which are not curable by only Gold, or any single asset, rather a responsible combination.
What is your outlook on Gold now? I am sincerely interested in your opinion.
I have no disdain for gold or any other asset. But I do pity those who mistake gambling for investing or believe overweighting in one asset class is smart and simple. PMs have a place in a diversified portfolio (maximum 5%), as I have often written. But this is a highly volatile asset which throws off no income. As such it is wholly unsuitable for most people. Anyone who does hold it should rebalance frequently to maintain a weighting and thereby limit the considerable risk. — Garth
@Tony,
And your hypothesis is based on what? Because Garth says he’ll be long dead before gold gets back to $1900?
My hypothesis is based on the fact that the excess liquidity will leak into commodities as it did with the last 2 QE programs. Why would the same set of events created by the fed just leak into food and oil only this time??
No significant RE correction in Canada. Period. The sheep will keep up with the payments.
Garth, can you do a post or 2 on best places to invest in US RE? Someone said buy their homebuilders. What do you think?
And to the people thanking Garth, repeatedly saying Great post, etc. etc. etc:
Garth has steel Kahunas…rides a Harley…cruises around in a hummer…smiles at the mention of Amazons.
Maybe the softy posters can use some of that Garth.
I think Larry (or is it Moe and/or Curly) are saying is that Garth is Luke Skywalker …..and “the farces be wid ya ” are Vancouver realtors…with Bob Rennie in lead role as Darth Vader
Nobody wants to read about honest lawyers down the street who does real estate loans and wills. If you want to sell books, you have to write about the interesting lawyers – the guys who steal all the money and take off. Thats the fun stuff.
– John Grisham
As economist Ben Rabidoux noticed last month, “(t)here are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over $1 million.”
To put it another way, despite our significantly lower disposable income, the Metro Vancouver region has roughly 42 times as many million-dollar mansions per capita than the ENTIRE U.S.A, including New York, the Hamptons, and Beverly Hills.
Seems perfectly reasonable to me.
and im no realtor
Garth, have you given any thought to having two separate talks in the GTA; East and West.
thanks.
Did I mention that even after putting in a North American style stainless steel clad kitchen and two brand new bathrooms, our townhouse here in SW France was less than 120.00/sqft?
http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2012/06/renovate-in-france.html
#55 TRT
You are not smart enough to not make assumptions. Speak for yourself. Consider yourself deleted.
Enjoyed the post Garth:)
Nothing happens in a tidy, consecutive fashion. Regional difference make it even more messy. Endless exceptions, contradictions, especially in the beginning. In Calgary, they’re bldg houses to the horizon. The price of oil is still pouring money into the city. Regina feels secure. In Manitoba, even in small towns, houses are selling for half a million dollars. The federal chopping of programs only affects a few people in any one place. Unemployment, in spite of the numbers, isn’t hurting a lot of people–yet. To do damage, it’s got to move to the middle class, the kind of people who feel secure. Food banks and thrift stores are busy but it’s the most vulnerable who are using them. No middle class despair–yet. When told about Vancouver house prices dropping, the response is “And?” I’m okay, Jack.
Looking forward to the CBC screed, but I wouldn’t take anything it says it seriously: 1) the MSM is usually the last to know 2) Ditto the CBC 3) The CBC is hardly a credible source 4) Who watches CBC any more, anyway?
Such trial , tribulation and consternation:
Why can’t Canadians simply reach inevitable , ultimate and consensual consensus to basically realize that Alberta is prime to be expropriated as a Canadian colony as suggested by the following:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwzaxUF0k18
These backwards people , in midstream of evolution , have no Hockey or Football teams ,and yet live in the bogus hope contrary to the aforementioned.
It is our duty to exploit these humble-yet-backwards parties to keep our SUV’s , HUMMERS and/or HARLEY’S in Newtonian motion.
–
“In the blogging world one might look to Garth Turner’s menu of scribbles where as a proclaimed ‘bear’ blog, fear and doom are served up like blue plate specials on a daily basis. That darkness – the kitchen where he crafts his servings, bring many to follow only to turn and twist in the air like the starlings trying to find a safe place. Luckily I don’t care. It’s no wonder sales are crumbling while listings have swollen and buyers are gone.”
It appears you have made clear points, which realtors are unable to refute. ‘Twas a good night when you decided to blog continuously, leaving polytix for good.
—
#23 TOUGH TIMES — Good post.
*
Garth’s bunker Pic; Evidently, China is going to hell in a hand-basket, and Russia Raising rates; US incomes fall to 1989 levels, and How QE favors the rich; Painting Making a living from it, and Eric Clapton’s painting; Black Hole for benefits; One mln. pounds every hour That part of the economy is in good shape; BAE being bought out by EADS; Pensions Companies want to pay less and less, and Other pensions; Creating new jobs; Jobs Targeting; India The world’s biggest economy in 40 years or less? G20 slow growth.
John Mauldin Decades, not decade; Fearful Not downgrade, but a China slowdown; McDonald’s and BK Copycat; Stocks and Bonds Unchartered waters; Panic? Not necessarily; Outsourced Charities and jobs gone; Wholesale Prices rise most in three years; Iran – Malaysia Working together; Home Depot Closed in China; Tajikistan Large oil deposits; Shadow Recovery? Central banks helped the GFC along. Halleluja! Let the truth be told.
*
Led Zeppelin A little grayer, but still rocking after all these years. John Bonzo Bonham is still a little dead, ‘tho; 1.13 Metre Mohawk Pic to right of story; Sandwiches The Earl of Sandwich is a happy camper; eenage Mutant Ninja Slugs With love from Spain; Obomba’s movie? “. . . the documentary basically argues that Obama has a pro-third world view inherited from his Kenyan father, and he is actively and wilfully working to dilute America’s primacy in the world.”; Intel Wave a hand, no more passwords; Guataman ‘cano blows, and 2:12 clip San Diego ‘cano? Asteroid blather; Growing Veggies thru the winter (get s greenhouse).
Can’t wait to attend Garth!
Garth:
If after your crying wolf for over 4 years, the wolf arrives…it is not much comfort for those who followed your blog for the last 4 years and missed on a decent RE gain (even after paying the closing costs and selling commision) you may ask why? because RE investing is leveraged and if after my 20% down, I’d made 25% gain, I would have doubled my money.
Now, you can counter it in whichever way, but you gotta admit you have kept readers out of RE investing while you yourself have been nibbling at it.
Fair or not? be honest.
Garth, I am a long time fan and can’t wait to attend your appearance in Toronto on Oct 23. How do I sign up and what is the venue? Thanks!
Since Garth nixed the Asian Invasion as a myth maybe we should collectively tackle another one that pops up from time to time?
The myth of “BC bud” drug money. Vancouver hyroponic equipment stores may be an indicator. Probably more reliable than anything out of VREA or franken-stats.
(Hot tip everybody else – it was the cheap credit/40yr Ams/Zero down, financial illiteracy and horniness).
Have another toke
Well Garth if used house salesmen like LY (who usually publish useful data followed by fairly reasonable analyses) are attacking you then you know they all must be quaking in their Steve Madden slip-ons.
I gotta thank you again for saving my family’s bacon. If it were not for your help, we would likely by now be toast. You have done my kids a great service and for that we owe you a great deal of gratitude.
Your posts from the past few days have reinforced my respect for your efforts. It struck me that, growing up as I did in a blue collar family, my parents would never have ‘qualified’ for any useful financial advice simply because they did not make enough money to attract any advisor’s attention. This is what the Internet and altruistic experts like yourself are able to offer: a more level playing field on which expert advice can be shared with working class people and not just hoarded and guarded by the silver spoon so-called elite set.
A narrow-minded social Darwinist American once said to me that he would never move to Canada because we are like “lobsters pulling each other back into a pot of boiling water”. I said no, in Canada the fortunate lobsters have climbed out and are busy reaching back in to pull more lobsters up out of the pot. (I guess I’ll be using that analogy when my 3 year old asks me what tax is).
Garth…
…….why would you go to some 3rd world country named after the Loan Arrangers sidekick aka Toronto?
Until they get at least 19th century amenties like Sewers, Cable, decent sports teams and potable water…..may as well go to Alberta, hotbed of Canadian Socialism
I just transferred my my TFSA, RRSP and bought $21,500 of provincial strip bonds at about 3.75% yield as well my 135,000 RRSP with similar investments 3.77%. These are today’s dollars not future compounded dollars. I am a conservative investor and I want to know how much money I will have in the future. The TFSA will be $43,272.55 in 2031 and my RRSP will be worth $314,818.46 in 2033. I have about $475,000 in long term provincial bonds I bought in 2009 with an average yield of 5.11% maturing in 2034 to 2037 . I have $275,000 in long term Canada bonds I bought in 2007 at 4.65% average yield maturing in 2033.Also, I bought a Ontario Hydro Bond in 1992 for $31,000 which matures in November-2012. Over the next 12 years I have both provincial, Canadian strips that on average mature between $7,000 and $11,000. I have a short term 30 cashable GIC for liquidity purposes worth $27,000 in case I need cash quickly. Finally, I have a mid term investment an Ontario Savings Bond I bought in 2010 paying 4.25% annually worth $85,000 maturing in June-2020. My plan is to use the maturing strips and investments to supplement my income only if I need it as a last resort. I paid off my house in 9 years and still have no debts. I don’t have a company pension. I am retiring at the end of 2012. I can live well with the income from my investments and maturing assets. I was fortunate that I got 10%-14% interest on my investments for at least a decade but I guess it was to good to last. I am in good financial shape and am not complaining. Garth, being conservative is not bad at all and I spent a lot of man hours to earn my money and I know what my income will be. This is just how I like it.
This could pose a chill: cbc is doing a week-long expose on leaky Calgary condos, hundreds of buildings affected, millions of $ in special assessments, hello foreclosures…
Leaks and losses: http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/features/condos/
Bottom line: buyer beware!
Oh, prrrreeeaasseee, will the “real” $$$BPOE$$$$ bring us a comment. Where are ya bro?
Looking great folks. Average SFH 1.2 and lovin it. Getting better everyway everyday.The CBC has been irrelevant for years. You want real news then listen to Tsur Sommerville not some Easterner on CBC. These aren’t empty words folks these are the FACTS. While fools talked of 40% price declines BPOE took your hand and guided you to untold riches. Richmond continues to bulldoze homes putting up multidwelling units SOLD SOLD SOLD. 6th Av Vancouver 989000 starting prices for townhouses. Hurry they will go quick. BPOE sitting pretty. Damn right I’m cocky and have a smirk on my face. The home owners Winner Circle never looked better. Rennnie and Tsur back it all up with the FACTS and NOT SPECULATION. Renters missed the biggest housing bull market in history and every year they rent they go further in the hole because renters DONT REINVEST THE DIFFERENCE, and thats a FACT
I forgot to mention I worked at least 55 to 60 hours weeks for the last 14 years so about half my working life. This ultra low interest policy is going to destroy younger workers work ethic and savings rates if they still exist. Everything I own I had is due to hard work, saving, avoiding stupid debt traps and being a conservative investor.
If they can’t blame the low, low sales and dropping prices in Vancouver on the weather, I guess the next logical thing is to blame Garth.
Interesting.
I can’t stand the way Larry Yatkowsky tries to sound philosophical and clever, but he’s obviously quite crude, and not particularly bright.
Don’t be too hard on Larry from Yatter Matters… he’s far more reasonable and honest than the average realtor out there. He runs a great blog, and shares stats on Vancouver RE that the cartel doesn’t (like average price and median price, not just the HPI franken-number).
So let me get this straight… The last 4 years has had at least 100 blogs (realtors) promoting real estate as a good investment. And one lone wolf (Garth) mired in black pessimism saying the market is over-valued and a risky investment. And as housing prices rose continually over that time, there is an obvious correlation that positive blogism affects the market and causes home prices to rise. Even moreso if you count in MSM.
But….
Garth is still the lone wolf vs the hundreds of Bulls, and now in 2012, he’s blamed for CAUSING a negative turn in the market when previously his powers were zero? Maybe some friendly realtor can explain how this cause and effect “thing” works cuz I can’t follow their logic.
QE3 happened Garth. It happened.
Garth, the CBC interviewing you, asking the hard hitting question that are in the public’s interest, like (finger up nose) “Duh, when is the best time to buy a condo?” You’re mainstream now! You’re a celebrity, well, a Canadian one at least. Do you ever get bored of answering the same questions over and over? Now that you’ve been proven right, where do you go from here? Care to take a swipe at the next big bubble, Student Loans, and how they will cripple people for the next few generations?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5p5E4XeK7c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LesfYqwqvYo
Good catch Patz. Who knew the realtors are that literate.
On the Dog Walk Index (DWI) here in Victoria we have a new property for sale at 1.1m down from the year ago listing of 1.25. The fun part is that the owner tried to rent: 3900/mo for a two bedroom in the leafy DWI area. Didn’t get it (but he got it a year ago) then down to 3500 and then down to 3K… no bites.
The high end is melting. The similar house next door sold for about 750 having been listed at 1.1. The realtor was so happy he took a picture of the “Sold” sign.
We are at the top of the hill.
It’s capitulation time in Van city. Friend has listed her house in Richmond for 3 months now. Nada. 3 price drops totaling 20% and counting. Now below 1 million. A couple low ball offers of about 800k. Tick tock….They bought it for about 800k 6 years ago, and if they want to sell that’s exactly what they might get….
i see your hanging around with spilts again.you are comedy!please keep her coming/can’t get enough.todays blog did it,bonafide GARTHAHOLIC! ARE YOU HAPPY NOW!links to shrinks.
Great pic, though I’m surprise by the lack of drool.
As for Larry Yatter-Don’t-Matter, he of course fails to explain how this pathetic bear blog (replete with twisting birds and other mixed metaphors) had no discernible effect on the lemming hordes in previous years, yet now manages to turn the market 180 degrees. Then again, logic was never Larry’s strong point. He’s like a purser on the Titanic, shushing people for pointing out that the ship is about to go vertical.
“An invisible force,” he says, “has guided Buyers and Sellers of Vancouver homes. ”
———-
So true. Even though it’s predictable, Zerohedge came out with an article about this guiding force. The dots are going to connect anyway, even though people are doing there best to not look.
Putting aside for a moment whatever details you could come up with on the system right now, one thing is for sure: There is no control and “investment” thinking might want to start being more informed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-09-13/fed-panicked
From the Toronto Star:
“Canadian house prices fell two per cent in the second quarter of 2012 over the same period a year ago, the report says. Housing demand has dampened because of slower job growth and tighter mortgage insurance rules which have made it tougher for first-time buyers. A more balanced supply of housing has kept price increases “restrained” in much of the country, it adds.”
Another baffling article from Pigg!
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1256580–canada-s-housing-market-expects-slower-growth-as-global-sales-continue-decline
Why can’t you do it as a webinar or tape it put it on on youtube?
All of us non local readers are dying to see the Amazonian Girls in action!!!!!
Garth, why would the CBC lie about the Vancouver market?
I’m coming up with a new index. It will show how many people are looting other people.
Vlad.
You see crude this morning. Life is not fair. With the click of a mouse. a week ago mark to market brings in 2 times the average annual house hold income. And its just started.
Last month added yellow stuff remeber.
Life is great.
Garth you are the real estate doomer of last resort. F and C must be going nuts. Capitulating to the great one for help getting CBC to help them in the quest to talk down the market.
How funny is that.
Double posted first friday in 5 years with no hangover
Canadian REITs with strong, safe payouts
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/number-cruncher/canadian-reits-with-strong-safe-payouts/article4543392/
===================
If you’re looking to research individual REITs for investment, this is a good resource. Make sure to download the spreadsheet at the bottom of the article.
Mic D’Angelo wrote:
“I forgot to mention I worked at least 55 to 60 hours weeks for the last 14 years so about half my working life. This ultra low interest policy is going to destroy younger workers work ethic and savings rates if they still exist. Everything I own I had is due to hard work, saving, avoiding stupid debt traps and being a conservative investor.”
——
I don’t think this is very accurate at all.
Everything you own is due to a repealed Glass Steagle in 1995, corrupt power broking Goldman Sachs “alumni” in the Fed and US Treasury, a muted and rescued dotconomy in 1999, outsourcing of manufacturing to slave populations, non-participatory democracy at every level except Neighbourhood Watch, the merger of state and corporate powers to feed off of out-of-control consumption, a derivatives ponzi scheme put into high drive with the engineered “war on terror”, a huge pharma business feeding of off the population’s loss of contact with each other, the education farm and “double income” broken families.
The factors you mentioned kind of fade into the background if there isn’t an endless supply of koolaid
in the Chinese-made fridge.
If we didn’t have houses priced at Goldman Sachs levels, pressing hard on every level of Canadian society, I suppose the coma could continue along ad infinitum. Until it couldn’t.
We work with what we have presented to us in inactive democracies, and nobody is “bad” or “wrong”.
The thing is…it is what it is. The way you’re presenting reality is disconnected from the real deal.
What does a $4trillion Fed balance sheet mean, apart from:
what it also very clearly means is that it is just business as usual, (CTL+P) and that the trendlines established from way back in 2002 when real interest rates first went negative, will continue onwards.
Invest accordingly or take your chances with the rest of with the rest of the paperbugsheeple at the slaughterhouse
dammit, dropped link again.
the 2002 trendlines in question
I hope to be able to reserve a seat. And I intend to wear a name tag.
Garth: “… blame a sweet guy like me.”
Your sense of humour is incredible!
This phrase is the ‘cherry on your blog’s pie’.
I admire your ‘sweet’ humour.
How else could one answer a self-serving idiot realtor?!
37 blacksheep
This is how its going to play out. Printing press ON corps hording cash facing that cashes buying power dropping. The fed keeping yields down means they need to put the loot into play. Result. Jobs. Result pressure on wages. Stratagy let wages and assets increase to a point where debt is managable before tightening money supply. Savers and horders of. Cash are fd. Debt holders win.
Garth. you need to come talk to Montrealers. A lot of them still have a hard time believing prices are coming down (and they have, 1% in August, first drop since 2008, AND new units to be built went up 238%!). I need your help, it’s hard to educated them all by myself. Thankfully they are paying more attention now than they were 1-2 years ago… somehow they can start to see it for themselves.
How about profitting on the RE’s demise? I am thinking of shorting BRE-T as their main source of income is franchise fees from Real Estate offices and those will collapse with the RE market.
#101 Smoking Man on 09.14.12 at 9:04 am
Dreaming Smoking man….dreaming….I call your bluff. Check the debt level again. it is a big number
The Occupy Movement is far from dead as many of us said the other day. It just keeps morphing. It has just come out with the Occupy Debt Manual. Here is the (dare I use the word) Manifesto portion of the manual:
“We gave the banks the power to create money because they promised to use it to help us live healthier and more prosperous lives—not to turn us into frightened peons. They broke that promise. We are under no moral obligation to keep our promises to liars and thieves. In fact, we are morally obligated to find a way to stop this system rather than continuing to perpetuate it.
This collective act of resistance may be the only way of salvaging democracy because the campaign to plunge the world into debt is a calculated attack on the very possibility of democracy. It is an assault on our homes, our families, our communities and on the planet’s fragile ecosystems—all of which are being destroyed by endless production to pay back creditors who have done nothing to earn the wealth they demand we make for them.
To the financial establishment of the world, we have only one thing to say: We owe you nothing. To our friends, our families, our communities, to humanity and to the natural world that makes our lives possible, we owe you everything. Every dollar we take from a fraudulent subprime mortgage speculator, every dollar we withhold from the collection agency is a tiny piece of our own lives and freedom that we can give back to our communities, to those we love and we respect. These are acts of debt resistance, which come in many other forms as well: fighting for free education and healthcare, defending a foreclosed home, demanding higher wages and providing mutual aid.”
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/09/occupy-wall-street-2-0-the-debt-resistors-operations-manual.html#IvRkcehLZ4CYj0Uv.99
Add a little science to your life: The Seebeck effect is a phenomenon in which a temperature difference between two dissimilar electrical conductors or semiconductors produces a voltage. David Carroll has found a use for this.
http://phys.org/news/2012-02-power-felt-body-electricity.html
#39 neo on 09.13.12 at 11:21 pm
Thanks neo. Very interesting.
MBS was/is horrific, but these stats are the big kahuna of global wealth destruction.
Everything should have been marked to market back in ’08. Everything….but then the authors of this mess would have lost out big time.
Garth,
You prefer REITs going into the uncertain future of interest rates. I agree with you that more folks will be in need of the services of a REIT once/if the rates go up. But therein lies another problem:
Wouldn’t the return (as well underlying asset price) go down on REITs if they are facing higher interest costs? Most REITs hold large amounts of debt as it is the only way to grow a large portfolio of real assets. But this debt makes their income stream just as vulnerable. What are your thoughts on this?
Thanks.
Man, the U.S.A is too stupid for words. They keep flooding the economy with cheap money, funneled through banks so it has to be lent to consumers thinking this will re-ignite the dead carcass. What a bunch of morons.
Here is the 2 second solution to all their problems and it will only cost about a dollar of ink. Raise taxes on all imported items coming from companies not producing on american soil. That goes for the Apple losers with a campus in SF and a sweat shop in Beijing. On the opposite side, give anyone a tax credit, break or incentive if they set up in the U.S.A again.
At #61 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 09.14.12 at 12:39 am
But where in South West France Monsier?
If it’s in the middle of Nice, Montpellier etc that’s great, if it’s outside of any major metropolitan area, there isn’t any analogy to begin with.
Immigrants in Canada that have been here for 30 years or more and still can not speak English, maybe they should be still treated as immigrants for not caring about being part of our country. Shame on them and their Bigot ways.
#89 housing markets continue to hurt
“Canadian house prices fell two per cent in the second quarter of 2012 over the same period a year ago, the report says.”
Actually the report says..
“Adjusted for inflation, national average prices fell 2% y/y in Q2, matching the first quarter decline.”
Which means home prices declined more then 2% in nominal terms.
Re: #103 Nukester on 09.14.12 at 9:18 am
I’m looking to short the same company but of course you have to cover the dividend. Looking at the company my guess is the shares will drop to around 3 to 4 dollars in two years’ time.
“Because you see people of Asian extraction does not mean they invaded. Probably been there longer than you.” — Hon. GT
Forget to visit EnglishBay, OldPol?
http://tinyurl.com/8otnbsu
[On the BrighterSide, with our good friends from the PLA Navy on patrol -the Kit’sKoastGuard Station may not be missed, after all.]
We are still in a shake-out phase of the housing market where the not so motivated sellers still hold on to hopes of achieving peak prices and not so motivated buyers expect unrealistic price drops that will never materialize. It is that market of “motivated” sellers and buyers that always remains which is the “real” market. Those on the fringe represent nothing more than speculative opportunists. The real market is somewhere between the two, but I do think closer to those sellers hopes than that of the buyers participating on this blog.
This shake-out phase represents the transition from a seller’s market to that of a buyer’s of which the duration typically lasts through a very short period of equilibrium after which the market starts to shift back again to that favouring sellers. When that shift happens buyers will begin to panic as it becomes apparent to them they likely missed their best buying opportunity – just as sellers in 2009 became acutely aware they missed their best selling opportunity. That time has not come quite yet but you can be sure, in due time and probably sooner than you think, it will.
This is a buyer’s market, we all know that. Problem is, buyers are more motivated to buy in a seller’s market as they try to beat rising prices, where in a buyer’s market they sit on the sidelines anticipating prices have yet further to fall. The only way you can really know when prices have hit bottom is when they clearly are headed back up again. But by then it is too late as we will be well into a seller’s market after having bumped along the bottom for a time. We are, I think, right now bumping along bottom shaking out the unrealistic expectations of the “opportunists” who have missed their respective markets. There are still some deals out there for buyers though as the market conditions continue to favour them for an indeterminate period of time to come… I repeat “indeterminate” period of time. There will be no announcement when that time has passed other than the abrupt realization that we have returned to rising prices announced after the fact.
Some neighbourhoods never saw price drops and never will. Other neighbourhoods will take years to recover their losses. Yes, in some places, it is indeed different. Averages mean nothing on a macro scale.
The unit sales volumes today are where they should be, neither above nor below, as is the average sales price nationally, provincially, regionally and in your neighbourhood as the core buyers and sellers continue to buy and sell. That is not to say they will not change one way or the other tomorrow, but then too they will be where they should be.
“Is the price of housing in your neighbourhood going to be higher or lower next year than it is today?” Yes.
#104 Mr Buyer
Un like U I buy. You bet the way you want I bet the way I want.
Sitting on cash right now is making a bet that is sure to lose. Look at the markets man.
C nuts were in a vise before QE3. QE3 just turned his nuts into mush. Fed just attacked cash Horders fence sitters and chicken shits.
I love Capitalisum. :)
#101 Smoking Man
Smoking Man believes employers will raise/adjust wages to the rate of inflation in order to keep the music going? LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
Here’s a hint buddy, wages haven’t kept pace with inflation since 1968. Employers have been skimming wages off their employers through inflation for an entire generation.
You really are getting desparate MR BPOE,
How come nothing is selling if all is well in your wonderland?
Vancouver is ground zero for Canada’s RE crash
Do you think the US has learned its lesson and the QE3 will do what its suppose to do?
Just watch a repeat of one of M. Moores movies last nite . This is exactly what is happening here . He should come to Canada and do a movie on how the Gov’t & the banks are looting the middle class here in Canada .
#110 Hawk
We are in Jarnac, just outside of Cognac. 60 min northof Bordeaux
#68 – Your not thinking things thru’. In order to take your supposed RE gain to the bank you would have to have sold at the top. Would you? Would you have known when exactly to sell or would you still be hanging on like many others hoping for further gains only to see your home price dropping by the month?
Garth Turner, you get the wake-up call today.
Stop calling horses that disagree with you bigots.
The numbers do not lie.
eslaction.com informs us that the number of non english speaking sheep are between 20 and 25% of the Canadian population and it is projected to go higher.
It is disingenuous of you to dismiss the observation of sheep importation as a factor in the real estate disaster.
This may not be your reality, but it is a reality for many horses.
Perhaps you should change pastures for a while and find some flavoured hay to munch on.
When you are a horse and you see sheep everywhere perhaps it is because there are sheep everywhere. Not because you are a horse.
Oh I forgot. They shoot horses, don’t they?
If you were totally serious, you would also write your blog in the other 14 official languages of Canada so that the sheep could also be educated.
Yep. No bigots here. Just nags. — Garth
Meanwhile Up Island:
Beautiful home couple of blocks away. Started in the $800’s last year. No takers. Asking mid $500’s now. No takers. Taxes are outrageous as well. I’m thinking of stink bidding it in the $400’s but the problem is that I might end up owning it.
And young mobile friends of ours have taken up stakes and headed to Alberta.
Monty Python did endless parodies on Religion and the Catholic church. An artist submerged a crucifix in a jar of urine and displayed it in a museum, how many people died because of these? But have some fun with Muhammed and all hell breaks loose. I don’t blame them for this, as if I could not have sex on fridays, and I had sand in my eyes as often as they do, I would be angry as well.
CMHC backed by Ottawa has made the bankers carry 0 risk, while all honest taxpayers face the gun of an impending RE crash.
As a honest taxpayer (and renter), I do not want to be responsible for CMHC’s foolishness in insuring loans. Can the govt be forced to decouple Ottawa from CMHC? Let CMHC be run as a normal Insurance company without any tax payers support.
#117 DonDWest
You are 100p correct when you say wages down since 1968
In fact that’s why we are where we are. They machine know that if it don’t get the young people working. And keep pushing track6ers into poverty. They will be coming for there heads. All the wealth for there future generation might go up in smoke.
QE3. Is differnt. Its the equivelent of the winner with all the chips at a pocker game realizing he’s going to need to fold a feew hand so his apponents don’t shoot him
Yeah Garth
‘Imagine that. It’s a bad thing when imaginary Mainland Chinese stop ravishing the city’s housing stock”
I don’t know why you Libs have this idea that if you don’t want to talk about something that it isn’t real…..but the ‘soft revolution’ used the same tactics to fracture Canaidian opinion….and look where that got us.
You either honestly don’t have a clue……or you just won’t speak the ruth for some politically correct position you have taken so as not to ‘upset’ the immigrant lobby……whichever it is….people here know the truth.
And what’s the truth. Somebody peeing in your gene pool? — Garth
Garth,are you planning another visit to Victoria in the near future? Would be good to hear you again….
Smoking Man wrote:
37 blacksheep
“This is how its going to play out. Printing press ON corps hording cash facing that cashes buying power dropping. The fed keeping yields down means they need to put the loot into play. Result. Jobs. Result pressure on wages. Stratagy let wages and assets increase to a point where debt is managable before tightening money supply. Savers and horders of. Cash are fd. Debt holders win.”
—–
At some point you need real jobs. Productivity.
Junius #105 – you said that this is out of the Occupiers manual:
“This collective act of resistance may be the only way of salvaging democracy because the campaign to plunge the world into debt is a calculated attack on the very possibility of democracy. It is an assault on our homes, our families, our communities and on the planet’s fragile ecosystems—all of which are being destroyed by endless production to pay back creditors who have done nothing to earn the wealth they demand we make for them.”
**************************************
If the main premise of the movement is to simply renege on debt obligations (when it is CLEARLY their choice to accept them) then I can assure you that the movement is bound to fail because only those with absolutely nothing to lose (including no job where the wages can be garnisheed) will be willing to join. Simply walking away from debt when you have other assets (or a job) will be an eye opening experience for those naive enough to try.
The occupy movement is not for the 99% it is for the low hanging 10% that either cannot get a job (which does deserve our sympathy) or that cannot be bothered and simply want something for nothing (in which case they do not).
#123 seriously – I speak two languages, and sometimes a third. You better be careful or Garth will tell the Queen of the Amazons about you!
Mic D’angelo – #73, first off – congratulations on having saved such a substantial amount of money for your retirement. You have obviously worked very hard to get where you are.
Having said that, I am curious as to why you think you are a “conservative” investor when you seem to have 100% of your retirement porfolio tied up in fixed income investments? To me, you are taking extreme risks with respect to future interest rate movements since it appears that 75% of your portfolio are bonds that mature in 2034 – 2037. The interest income you are earning today (at around 4.5% per year) may seem suffiicent, but with inflation at 2% (at least) and compounding annually, you will not be able to keep your head above water for long since your interest yield will not grow.
You are also exposing yourself to the potential for capital losses if you need to sell any bonds before maturity. I would be interested in what Garth thinks of your portfolio.
With equity markets being goosed, lots of new wealth being created to buy up more and more property..
The wife and I are just average income earners (120K take home) and have already paid off 1/3 of our detached house that is a stones throw away from the newly announced Evergreen Line in Coquitlam Centre.
Good thing we were contrarians and didn’t follow the bubbleheads back in 2008 when we bought!
We will likely have the whole thing paid off on a 7-8 year amortization based on our 2% mortgage rate.
Then we’ll be mortgage free by our mid 30s and can dump money in equities!
what will throwing another trillion$ out to the wind do for canadian Re and jobs?
well, look west , young man. oil,steel,lumber,potash,nat gas, water, wheat, gold, cu, zn, fish, u, land, iphones, pm’s and touques are competing for a 1T larger pile of paper dollars to be purchased with. more $$ and easy credit equals higher prices , just like the previous QE programs
western canada has the (raw) goods (minus the overpriced istuff – android is awesome) and will stay relatively well employed,ergo house (with land) prices will stay strong. points east of sudbury will have a much tougher go.
I would give my left nut to go see Garth in TORONTO!
I CAN’T WAIT!
#117 DonDWest.
We also pay a HELL of a lot more taxes and fees than people did back then.
Some income tax brackets have been reduced slightly since the 60’s but all other government taxes and fees have gone up substantially, especially in Ontario under Dolton.
Disposable income has been eroded for years, mostly due to government policy, but businesses are partially to blame.
#115 };-) aka D.A
“The only way you can really know when prices have hit bottom is when they clearly are headed back up again. But by then it is too late as we will be well into a seller’s market after having bumped along the bottom for a time.”
But if prices are at the bottom, who cares if it is a sellers market? It’s not like the prices will immediately jump back up to to 2010 levels overnight.
Two Words:
Legal Plunder.
It’s not stealing if a man in a dress says its ok.
5 year prediction:
TSX at 24 000
gold at 3400$
silver at 70$
Canadian dollar par to U.S.
RE and incomes same level nominally as of today.
In real terms it’s going to get ugly.
Hey Garth,
T.O. talk sounds interesting… what’s the policy on Mom’s basement dwellers who’ve had to suffer through a 25% increase in their Ag portfolio over the last month… you letting us in?
b.t.w… we sometimes do Silver Maple donations for “gratis” speakers… ’cause we save so much on rent… lol!
What a time bomb “f” and “h” created with their false economy.
#115 DA
no need to ramble on with long-winded nonsensical declarations, keep it simple : supply demand ratio
prices will keep falling until MOI is less than 6 months ( Okanagan is sitting at about 13 MOI ), at which time they will flatline likely for years.
“The much-hyped Asian invasion, largely a marketing myth, has vanished.”
It isn’t a myth Garth. If you live in Richmond BC it really is a reality. The China invasion was the cause of skyrocketing real estate. It also will be the cause of a dramatic drop due to slow growth in China. All it takes to move the RE market in Richmond is an announcement from our Immigration Minister, or China government doing something to scare the crap out of it’s people. Most of them want a place to go if anything goes sideways in China. Canada (Richmond) is their safehaven.
@ # 39 neo
thanks for posting that list
a stark reminder of what is really propping up the markets and economy – eggreggious government largesse on the taxpayers’ tab
Smoking Man wrote:
“QE3. It’s different. Its the equivelent of the winner with all the chips at a poker game realizing he’s going to need to fold a few hands so his opponents don’t shoot him”
——–
(sp adjusted)
That is super interesting. Does anyone have any links to articles-blogs-video aiming at this? It most certainly is a game, and this would make sense.
Links on this perspective would be great. I’m sure others have thought of and expanded on this.
The open admission of infinity is a fundamental change in the poker game. Smoking Man is right here. Consider all the “rules” of a casino. Where would they not apply in this situation? A very good analysis.
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Helsinki+to+boycott+companies+with+links+to+tax+havens/1329104783706
Helsinki to boycott companies with links to tax havens
Finnish capital enacts global responsibility strategy
==
13 Sep 2012 : Column 497
Tax Avoidance and Evasion
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm120913/debtext/120913-0003.htm#12091334000003
..
The non-dom rule was introduced in 1799—it is somewhat anachronistic—and the UK is now the only country in the world, apart from Ireland, I think, that does not tax worldwide earnings. It should be abolished.
A much tougher line should be taken on closing down UK tax havens. The UK Crown dependencies hold some $7 trillion of US bank deposits and probably dodge some £30 billion of tax. The Cayman Islands have just 30,000 inhabitants, but they are home to 457,000 shell companies. We should adopt the rule that unless such territories provide full and automatic information on all such funds that can be taxed, any transactions with such tax havens should be declared illegal.
In conclusion, I do not often agree with the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, but tax avoidance is morally wrong and morally repugnant. It is high time that we had in this country a Government whose actions show that they actually believe and support that.
Garth, the coming crash is all your fault… cus you said it was going to happen…
ya we really buy this don’t we…
Texting my buddy this morning, last year it was, “Gotta jump in or else…” today… “should have sold 2 years ago…” my how the tide changes…
Smoke #101,
The Cattle aren’t seeing the big picture. Global trade is upon us. Western living standards are falling (and unfortunately must) in an attempt to compete. Our housing costs twice that of the US, but we somehow expect to maintain trade. QE is pushing their dollar down and ours up. I’m not even addressing the other 2 billion workers that toil for pennies per hour.
Bennie can try to push the QE rope all he wants (he’s out’a tools) but with out demand driving growth, it means nothing. The Cattle are struggling to feed the consumption machine so the Gov’s trying to step in, but at this late date, stimulus alone will not do it. The States must go big and here are two obvious options. 1) Old fashioned blow shit up, world war. 2) Spend trillions into the double digits, on it’s crumbling infrastructure.
Thanks for your response.
take care
Blacksheep
Looks like the Realtors Assn Of Edmonton is pulling a move to block access to timely sales info, thus affecting clients and realtors alike. Its said:
“… the revamped system would block home buyers, sellers, appraisers and real estate agents themselves from getting timely access to relevant sales data until the deals close — sometimes months after a purchase agreement is reached.
That’s a big change from the current system under which buyers, sellers and their advisers are able to obtain current data for all properties listed on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) that have been sold unconditionally. ”
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/Lamphier+Realtors+Association+Edmonton+house/7239255/story.html
We had a home in SE Edmonton appraised recently. We learned that 3 other comparable properties sold for 25-35 G less than the asking price. As Garth has (repeatedly) stated, that’s called deflation, folks. And the majority of Edmonton realtors don’t want this rabbit getting out of the hat.
They’ve split into opposing camps and are facing off over the issue.
A realtor fight could get interesting. Yee Haw!
@ # 55 TRT
“No significant RE bust in Canada. Period. The sheep will keep up with the payments.”
A stupid and baseless statement TRT.
1. Quantify ‘significant’ in order to give any merit to your first assertation.
Is your definition of significant 5%, 30%, – what? Don’t be vague now – you are making a very bold statement here- give us hard numbers here so we can test the accuracy of your predictions.
2. People paying their mortgages does not guarantee that housing prices will not be affected by other factors that could impact values.
Don’t be so sure that all people will be in a financial position to honour their mtge debts and so have to sell, putting pressure on prices, although default / overdues may seem subdued. (Witness: US, Ireland, Spain, etc., etc.)
A piece of advice – making sweeping statements without hard numbers is usually the tactic of the intellectually limited.
Your postings here don’t reflect the organized nor logical thought processes that engender credibility.
#131 OlderbutWiser,
Clearly you are none the wiser. I stated very clearly that the main goal of the movement was to remove the control of our society from corporations and return it to the people.
This debt document is just one facet of many different part of the movement. Perhaps you missed the part where the banks and financial services industry blew up our economy and then were bailed out by the Billions without any serious prosecutions or reform.
These people at Occupy get the fact that our financial services industry does not create real wealth or anything useful but just extract wealth from people. Resistance to this extraction is fundamental to returning our society to a democracy and rebuilding the middle class.
Any really wise person can see this plain as day.
#127 Smoking Man
Smoking Man, won’t happen. In order for that fear to become a reality, young Liberals have to start loving guns. To my knowledge, I’m the only young Liberal in my region who owns and uses a gun. A one man does not an army nor revolution make – a one man with a gun, with a cause, is what we call a terrorist. And we all know the fate of terrorists . . .
The elite don’t fear the mob. Education has done a number on the mob. I remember the lessons well, “violence never solves problems.” This lesson is still deeply entranched in the brain of the masses. They will not take arms, the elite have nothing to fear, the unrelentless raid on the wealth of the average person will continue unchallenged.
I don’t see wages adjusting to the rate of inflation during my entire lifetime. . .
@ # 101 Smoking Man
Corporations with huge excess cash on their balance sheets don’t expand productive capacity when capacity utilzation rates are low (like today).
If they fear erosion of the cash pile due to inflation, they use cash opportunisticly to buy competitors (especially when inflation has reduced everyone’s margins, or the competitors are hurting) at lower valuations in order to achieve economies of scale or enter complimentary markets.
With respect to job creation, you are COMPLETELY WRONG.
Inflation of input costs reduce margins, so companies try to cut back the labour inpt as much as possible . They invest only in capital goods that streamline operations or reduce unit labour costs.
When they opportunistcaly acquire other companies they seek synergies and to REDUCE HEADCOUNTS to drive margin growth and profits.
Under no circumstances of restrained / lowered demand do they increase hiring.
I guess you add negative value to this blog, dumbass.
Canadian dollar dropping massively against Euro and other countries over last week. Only up against USD. Why?
The world realizes we’re not raising rates for a long time (like the USA). Thus, inflation coming to many things.
We are going to inflate our way out. Currency markets don’t lie!
I am with #90 Rob the Dividend Trader.
Garth, the same way some financial vehicles are better than others, some media vehicles are better than others. The internet is a great vehicle to spread the information (you know it, you have this blog), go a little bit further and use it for your talks too. Record your talks and make them available online. You might reach interesting viewer numbers. I am not saying you should not give those talks (nothing will replace a real human interaction) I am just recommending to “diversify your portfolio” in terms of type of media… you have the blogs, you have books, you have the talks… add the video. I would say online videos have less “risk” than the talks and more “growth potential” too.
Seriously, a lot of people will appreciate it.
#70 Aaron – Melbourne on 09.14.12 at 1:24 am
you called that one exactly right.
drug money spends its time in various containers in hard to find places. it has bought nowhere near as many houses or toys that many seem to think it has.
cheap interest rates? yup.
there just arent enough gang members and their hangers on to account for the amount of sales for houses and toys.
@ # 93 Smoking Man
Funny how you brag about your great market successes AFTER the fact.
Mentioning an investment idea is different than actually having the wherewithal or balls to do it.
I’m betting you have neither.
I think you are a liar, and I’m calling you out on your bs.
Post the actual trades with the position screenshots from the bokerage account, in a bona fide (go google it dumbass as I doubt you have know what it means) manner.
Put up or STFU, braggart.
It has been my experience of many decades that people who really are successful in markets and life DON’T BROADCAST IT, but rather are humbler and quietly thankful for their good fortune.
Excellent posts this week Garth. I really liked your piece entitled “hope”. You’re in a groove.
I just gotta say, what with the ECB buying Italian & Spanish bonds coupled with the U.S. fed buying MBS’s “until jobs are created”, possibly mid 2015, here so far is the fallout of this combination:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=10Y
The uptick of Euro strength vs the dollar has given the markets, particularly commodities, a boost all on their own as its safe to say that both central bank decisions bode ill for the U.S. dollar. To those who are bulls with PM’s, yes, PM’s will do well in the near term as currencies adjust (U.S. dollar falls) because gold is a commodity priced in U.S. dollars but think, PM lovers. Its not just gold that gets a boost, its all commodities priced in U.S. dollars and that means that commodities in general are the place to be. Be smart and diversify.
For the stock markets short term, this is positive and I echo the comments of Smoking man over the near term. We are unquestionably now in a government engineered bull market. 40 billion a month MBS buyouts means that the fed is doing everything it can to boost strength to financials by way of liquidity, housing valuations credit and the jobs come back in the area’s of consumer credit and consumption.
The mid to long term problems deal with a weakening currency that isn’t weak enough to bring back jobs but generates inflation of imports not to mention the very real possibility now of the U.S. hitting a tipping point where the combined intergovernmental debt (gross public debt) is too high to take sustained higher interest rates. Hence, the problem with QE is that once you start, just like Japan did, it mushrooms to a point where you can’t stop Q.E. as Q.E. becomes the only tool that can keep rates low and the obscenely high debt levels servicable.
So lets talk about Europe. Europe as a union is valuing that union as an entity that has enough monetary capacity to bail out its members. Its collateral? a European union is enough apparently. This is the European answer to today’s modern problem of sovereign debt. Is it justifiable for Europe to create an organization that has that kind of monetary power? According to Europe, it is but problems remain. How are the PIGGS to recover economically without a currency reset? The answer is, they really can’t, not without protections so there’s a tremendous amount of work left to be done.
Japan, the worlds most indebted nation is in Q.E. to insolvency or bailout. The only thing that is saving Japan from sovereign default is the fact that their external public debt is over 90% domestically owned (but I think that number is slipping). Japan’s situation I think, is near unfixable. The reason why finance ministers have resigned every 6 months or so over the last decade is because they can’t fix it. To reflect on how serious it is, roughly 50% of Japan’s government tax revenue goes towards servicing debt. A mere 2% hike on all government bonds would take that number to 100% of all collected tax revenue. Japan’s tax rates are actually low considering their problem but Japan is now a nation forced to Q.E. to keep its interest rates low. If Japan doesn’t Q.E., rates will rise and its highly possible that the nation could spin into default as a result. So… its Q.E. until default or bailout and the question there remains when which could be decades away or it could be years.
To the onlooker, it looks as though there is no plan to avoid this but maybe there is. An Asian union? A union much like the European union that gives itself the monetary capacity to bail out nations through another borrowing authority offering another layer of debt? Its possible. Who knows, but the average Joe see’s the same old worn out tune being played. Just find another layer of debt to solve all our problems. Paper over debt with more debt.
Then there’s the U.S. . Two choices here. Raise taxes, cut government services, cut defense spending, grow up and pay the piper in an effort to keep the dollar from imploding (y’know, like Canada did in the 90’s) vs Q.E., revive housing, consumption, leverage and face the consequences of a collapsing dollar years from now and say hello to Q.E. until sovereign collapse.
Conclusion? The stock market is the place to be in the short term (rest of the year should be good unless the Euro retreats and I don’t expect it to), particularly commodities and the main driver (besides a lazy 2% global growth) is currency. This means PM’s will do well but its not just PM’s metal heads, its all commodities priced in U.S. dollars.
What does all this mean for Canada? Continued low interest rates, likely now until 2014. RE will continue to correct due to tighter regs but mainly because valuations soared too high to support valuations so I don’t share certain sentiments that RE will bounce from this but I do see a levelling off occuring in 2014, into 2015 and its foggy from there. For a continued RE melt to occur in Canada past 2014 rates have to move up and I’m not sure that they will until the U.S. stops Q.E. and right now, as we all absorb whats going on, the U.S. may never stop Q.E. so…
This leaves Canada and the choices policy makers now face and I have to say that if the U.S. continues with Q.E., Canada needs to ween itself off of trading in U.S. dollars. Whether that happens or not… but it won’t just be Canada thinking this. What’s the rest of the world thinking. When the day comes that currencies are no longer trusted because fundamentally government debt can no longer be serviced realistically, protectionism will become the logical choice for policy makers. I can’t say when that will come, but its now likely before the end of this decade.
Well guys am taking some pocket change and might be rolling the dice after halloween to make a call on orange juice contracts with my financial advisor known as the weather witch; she is a knockout, and will be sitting in the front row, as has a crush on Garth :(
She will fly off on her broom to analyze the solar wind variations and magnetospheres over Florida this coming winter to give me her space weather report on a potential crop freeze; she makes many flights for me with updates too, and is going after Garth’s business, and has her card ready; she will be dressed in black, and wears lovely diamonds too.
#10 Maximum
#14 Tripp
#15 wwwStratege
Mr. Turner, you have many people from QC asking for your presence. In addition, you have a few faithful blogdogs from QC reading and posting every day. At least they deserve to know if you have Montreal in your future talks’ plans.
Would you be so kind to let us know if you intend to go to Montreal as part of your talks in a foreseeable future?
N’oubliez pas que c’est vraiment différent ici…
Have you a great week end.
Great Post. Keep the good work!
#157 penpal on 09.14.12 at 3:39 pm
You are on fire my friend.
@ # 70 Aaron
and @ # 156 Bill
Criminals generally don’t put their illegal profits into IMMOBILE and HIGHLY IDENTIFIABLE assets that have a TRACEABLE chain of ownership.
These assets are easily and routinely seized or encumbered as ‘proceeds of crime’ in virtually all modern legal jurisdictions.
In addition, large amounts of actual cash are more valuable to drug dealers as the purchase / sale of large quantities of drugs require briefcases of cash – i.e. it is needed to carry on their businesses. Excess cash is “swept up” to bosses who reside or bank it ‘out of country’.
Why do you think that so much cash is found along with drugs on these big police ‘busts’ of drug criminals here and in other countries.
The ‘worker bee’ criminals never see enough loot, blow the easy money quickly ($5,000 / nite hooker parties, etc.), or are too inept to be able to inject the money into major purchases without running afoul of the laws.
The money generallly gets spent on overpriced “lifestyle” items -jewellery, watches, clothes, entertainment,etc. all bought at full retail. A couple of hundred thousand is pretty easy to blow if pissed away these days.
Dimwit F opens his f^$% mouth this morning says he’s concerned about our dollar…it then drops!! F%$#^% Dimwit!
#151 penpal
Dude, I’ve been making money off my predictions these last 4 years. Have you?
ur too emotional…still worried about those house prices?…go get a higher paying job…Do something about it rather than just whine.
Inflation is coming whether you like it or not;) Do something..
#154 penpal on 09.14.12 at 3:10 pm @ # 101 Smoking Man
We are a commodity based economy so I tend to think that higher commodity values caused by a devalued U.S. dollar will trump inflation, at least in Canada. I also believe that a recovery in U.S. housing will lead to a recovery in financials and consumer consumption which leads to jobs but its short lived once credit expansion hits its max. I see the U.S. economy having an off year in 2013 but doing well actually in 2014, 2015 due to a recovery in housing… but beyond this its sketchy. Credit expansion in household debt can take any nation only so far and yet, I don’t see the U.S. dollar as competitive enough to bring back manufacturing jobs domestically by the time household debt maxes out and if the U.S. government allows housing valuations to overshoot, its 08′ round 2 and I don’t think the U.S. public balance sheet can handle that again. We can talk jobs but I just don’t see manufacturing jobs coming back until the the U.S. dollar weakens substancially from what it is today and I honestly don’t know far the U.S. dollar has to fall in order for manufacturing jobs to return full force.
I would certainly like to know where the U.S. dollar needs to be to breathe life into manufacturing.
Aside from this what I’m thinking at present is that the ECB and U.S. fed have harmonized the timing of their choices too close to a U.S. presidential election to be coincidental and that has a message within itself. Much of the narrative as they say, has already been pre written. Btw my favorite hothead, could you try lengthening that short fuse of yours for manners sake? Thanks bud. Cheers
TO#133 OLDERBUTWISER I am a conservative investor because I have at least $253,000 in maturing mid term and short term investments over the next 12 years. My TFSA,RRSP from today 2012 to 2031,2033 will generate $201,591.01 in interest over next 19-21 years. This interest accruing comes to $10,079.55 annually and increases my future investments by about 17.50% in 19-21 years. I currently receive from all my semi-annual and annual pay government bonds $41,595.00 interest annually. As I said I have no debts so after I pay my income taxes, property taxes and utilities, insurance, food, gasoline,clothing, entertainment, misc. and other cost of daily living I have left over net amount of $1,500 a month or $18,000 a year to save and invest. Remember I did not deplete any of my short to mid-term, long term investments. I will continue to invest my TFSA $5,000 annually in 15-19 year provincial strips at about 3.75% and with the money left over I can buy short to mid term government bonds 10 to 13 years at say now 3.15%-3.30% range in order to have future shorter term maturity bonds so I do not have to sell my longer term bonds and avoiding a possible future capital loss of say 25% to 35%. I will also put aside a one time short term money deposit of about $13,000 to add my $27,000 cashable GIC. A $5,000 TFSA invested per year at 3.75% will be worth over the next 21 years $155,527.69. I can do this every year with no financial difficulty. Even if I save just half of the net left over savings $13,000 annually say $6,500 I will have after tax net proceeds of $176,691.28 in 21 years.One last point, my RRSP provincial strip bonds which mature in 2033 I will be 71 years old and just in time for RRIF annual minimum withdrawls which currently at the today’s percentages at 71 about $14,800, 72 $15,000, 73 $22,100, 74 $23,090 etc. This is just principal value accrued interest is extra so interest rates could be 0% which is impossible and these are the RRIF annual minimum withdrawls. I have been analyzing my financial plan for at least 17 years or more and as you can see I am a conservative investor because I have short term, mid term, long term, tax free, tax deferred investments with safety, a decent rate of return and not a pie in the sky you can make potential, historically rates of return based on some mutual fund, ETF, hedgefund, index funds, income funds , income trusts etc depending on the management and control of someone or company I do not know with rising fees and no certainty of the real estate, stock markets. I want to sleep at night and not worry how I am going to pay my bills I have worked too hard for loosing say 10% to 30%+ of my investments. I would rather deplete my investments to live on than loose it to any market that I do not know what my investments will be worth and my income I need to live on. I’m a straight forward guy and that is how I live my life.
Beuty of a Lady. Liz. H.
Died on 407 this morning. RIP. Funnest person ever. Kids and hockey
Skimp and save and plan Then Boom
Live life like its ur last day. That my religon
@ # 153 Don D West
Exactly correct.
Smoking Man thinks the elite believe that the “sheep” will become armed “wolves”. LOL!
That would be the same “sheep” he asserts as being brainwashed and docile – so much for his critical thinking abilities.
I think the addictions are getting the better of him.
Maybe one day they will erase the last few braincells he is obviously overworking.
Delusional RE pumpers on this blog, like Smoking Man and that douche TRT, point to a small inventory of homes for sale without thinking why that may be the case.
Has it ever occurred to you fools that many, many people have borrowed / collateralized so much against increased home equity and spent it, that they can’t sell?
Well, they can sell of course, but not come away from the sale with enough equity to meet the new lending regulations for a new place or even BREAKEVEN.
They simply are stuck in a debt prison of their own making.
Move how?
With what money?
After repaying loans taken out for cars, vacations, elective surgery, mtge interest penalties, RE fees, etc.?
You know the end is near when a realtor in Richmond advertises:
“Brand new Honda Civic with every townhouse sold. Price includes HST.”
Next thing you see is that they will be paying your mortgage payments for the next year. Or no strata fees for a year.
#157
I wont type his name not talking to him. Post scream shots, up urs that’s my business. All I have to go by is my calls and what follows after. Vald, Bond Junky, and anyone else who has followed my care to weigh in. Any old globe and mail pals on here.
You are an agitator, you offer no input, analyisis, opinion, just chirp posters, no one likes you.
Are u over four feet six inches cause you talk like a dude with short man syndrome.
#101 Smoking Man
Smoking man, you think the long game plan you outline will play out before Canadians start deleveraging their debt and changing the direction the current flows? Before RE starts taking a poop, like BC and GTA Condos? Will the corps putting cash into play be enough to reverse that new current flow direction?
Damn debt is so huge, it’s not so easy to inflate it away.
@ # 143 Form Man
Funny how you the builder / developer (who actually creates value and has his capital on the line) can state your case very succinctly while the salesman (who creates nothing and has no money at risk) blathers on incoherently for paragraphs on the same point.
I believe that you two toil in the same BC market.
Form Man, have you ever met this twit in person or know who he is?
Does anybody really do business with people this whacked out in your area?
I cannot imagine that anybody would buy an apple from someone with his obvious limitations, let alone a house.
BTW Smoking Man, 70% of the herd is flowing along into debt and RE. There ain’t that many contrarians in the lot here going against RE. Certainly not enough of us to bail out a falling market ahead. Just look at US.
Have you ever seen anything sell to 70% of the population satisfying the need and then endlessly grow in value? Record players, ipads, rubik’s cubes all available way below suggested retail price out there. What makes real estate different?
You do know that you don’t have to be in your $2M W6 compund right now? You could be lake side in some small town hour away in a house twice the size for 1/4 the price. You’d still get high speed, TSN HD and pizza delivery. And you would breathe fresher air. Even Smoking Man surely appreciates fresh air over plastics factory smoke and GO train exhaust. How much joy can those season Leafs tickets really give you? You don’t watch that lemon team, do you?
Penpals profile
Height 4’8
Balding and looking for options.
Can’t keep a wonam satisfied, note the extra testosterone in his post, the man has no release
No money he is a sex less version of laughingcon
Longs for a market crash cause he always misses othe boat.
Wears pink shirts. And can’t hold his bozze
Talks with a high pitch voice
Is trilled I’m talking about him. Can’t get positive attention so resorts to any attention
After he has kids and his wife leaves him he. Will become a leader in a men helping men vs woman group.
HE wishes he was a movie star.
#121 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 09.14.12 at 11:33 am
#110 Hawk
We are in Jarnac, just outside of Cognac. 60 min northof Bordeaux
……………..
Maybe we can meet next summer Celiac Huband. One of our priorities is to visit people in Bordeaux. We’ve never met them but we’ve been corresponding weekly for over a year via the net. We were supposed to visit them last year but had to cut our visit to the south due to FIL’s health. Have bookmarked your site. We’ve has 2 German couples stay with us that we’ve met on the fly. No regrets & still in touch with them.
…” a small number of California homeowners — 8,500 to 9,000 — would be able to get mortgage write-downs with the current level of funds available
Keep Your Home California program.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own about 62% of outstanding mortgages in the Golden State, according to an estimate released by the state attorney general’s office this year. Neither had elected to participate in principal reduction because of concerns about additional costs to taxpayers, and the government-controlled firms won’t have to take writedowns through this program.”
#116 Smoking Man on 09.14.12 at 10:56 am
#104 Mr Buyer
Un like U I buy. You bet the way you want I bet the way I want.
………………………………………………….
Having egg on my face from TOs crazy spring does not add any weight to your present bet, I call. I buy alright, just not in Canada presently, that ship has sailed.
Bond Market: see that some of you have invested in long term or medium in both Provincial and Canada bonds. Does this mean you have a capital gain if you blew some off? Might take a look to re-balance the portfolio a bit, and take a tax advantage on disposition with capital gains tax at 50%, and reinvest into blue chip corporate preferreds with a higher yield, and a tax advantage. Bond interest is fully taxable, but preferred shares are not, so what is your net return on bonds? I say not much, and to be long on bonds is a risk.
#174 penpal
thanks. I have no idea who DA is, and frankly, if I did, it would likely spoil the endless amusement his idiotic comments provide me ………
Kelowna certainly seems to have more than its fair share of ideologically bent halfwits, and sadly, many people do business with them……
You’ll note that I made no prediction – mild suppositions at best for, unlike you Form Man, I don’t have a crystal ball. What your crystal ball fails to reveal is the deeper intricacies of this Kelowna market. To say there is 13 months of inventory is a misnomer, as any serious buyer would tell you half of it is not at all worth looking at. So inventory is not so abundant as you might think.
@ # 165 TRT
“Dude, I’ve been making money off my predictions for the past 4 years. Have you?”
Couple of comments, old chum…
1) Prove it.
Post the securities buy / sells, the Purchase and Sale agreements on RE you have sold and BOOKED PROFITS on – something to substantiate your claims.
Or STFU about your “successes”
2) Only the past 4 years, old chum?
A pretty short track record! If you are referring to having made some money off housing – well never confuse investment acumen (you do know what that means don’t you?) with a bull market. If you couldn’t make money in the biggest housing bubble in the country’s history, then I’d be laughing even harder at you than I am now.
3) How could I make money off your predictions when I’ve only recently had the displeasure of making your acquaintance and being regaled with your delusions recently via this blog?
Your writing abilities, diction, etc. again belay limitations in your intellect – and perhaps by extension, your business acumen.
4) Your accusations of emotionality of my decision making abilities despite my cold and calculated refutations of your bs which then engenders an obviously emotional retort from you.
5) Your assumptions as to my investment acumen, ideas, assets, even my occupation are just that – assumptions!
They are but poor attempts to discredit someone you know literally nothing about – other than my ability to think critically and dismantle your bs postings.
6) ‘Ad hominem’ attacks in place of facts tend to erode any credibilty you might have had in a cogent discussion.
So, boastfull one – prove your claims – post some screen captures of your trades.
Show us your buys and sells.
Exhibit your great investing skills with evidence.
Otherwise you are just another internet liar.
Plain and simple!
Garth, some of your commenters would like you to look at the Montreal condo scene. I just returned from there and was amazed with the amount of pre-build sites and new condos being built.
The prices were lower than TO but not by much.
I travel to Quebec often, and It seems to have exploded in the last 12mos. A new site on almost every block inthe main core. Even more on outskirts. With the Quebec economy not so hot, I can’t figure out who is buying.
Something stinks.
@ # 168 Smoking Man
Did it ever occur to you that the woman was enjoying her life and living the life she wanted to?
Perhaps she simply didn’t value;
hookers,
drugs ,
gambling,
infidelity,
lying,
braggadaccio,
bad manners,
hangovers,
getting wasted to alleviate the pain of being herself,
a limited intellect,
rampant self esteem issues,
denigrating others,
a chaotic lifestyle,
immorality,
deception,
etc,
quite as much as you do.
We all can’t be Smoking Man now, can we?
@ # 176 Smoking Man
I thought that you were not going to read or comment on my postings any longer.
I guess you just can’t control your emotions, eh?
I’m not shocked given how you can’t even control your thoughts, let alone your addictions. It’s ok though, keep telling yourself all that wine is good for your thought processes and, of course, your arthritis.
I find it hilarious that you respond to my jibes exactly as I thought you would – ad hominem, ad hominem, ad hominem.
You are a pussy pal and you can’t argue my points so you try to deflect my factual observations of your claims.
You Fail.
Until such time that you can substantiate your otherwise baseless claims, you will remain a liar in fact.
If you weren’t such a nasty individual, I’d feel sorry for your delusional ass.
@ # 172 Smoking Man
Challenging peoples’ bold, unsubstantiated, delusional and downright wrong postings to a popular blog holds value for all readers of the blog.
It helps keep the info flow more HONEST and FACTUAL – two words you don’t know the meaning of.
Your call for support from others of standing on this blog and the Globe and Mail is telling.
( Were you not banned from blogs and forums in the online Globe and Mail edition – I seem to recall your nastiness there for a while until I believe you were blocked from further comment.)
You are like that kid in the playground who tries to rally his acquaintances around him so he won’t get his ass kicked.
You are still that woeful kid buddy.
Too bad for you.
Now you have to cover up all that insecurity in your life from the time you were a child and couldn’t fit in cause you were too stupid, unattractive, not athletic, had the immigrant nobody parents you were ashamed of, etc., etc. by swilling booze, drugs and paying women for sex, and of course making up stories to post on this blog.
See, the difference is that you have admitted to all this in your previous posts either directly or by inference.
It truly is the sad story of your life and its sorrows inescapable due to your ego.
Better luck in the next life, chump.
Seebee have a little voice inside my head that’s very accurate. No you 70 precent own homes. Ok what ever now all the boomers with 2 to 4 kids that I know who’s kids are in the 20s don’t own. So 70precent. Its a lie
@ # 166 Daystar
If I comprehend your thesis correctly, how do you square a lower US dollar with a recovering US economy if , by definition, discretionary income buying power is shrunk by the inflating cost of imported goods. America has a huge trade deficit for a reason – they buy a lot of foreign goods!
This would leave less money for housing, etc. unless you see wages rising to offset the bleed of the inflationary impact of the lower US dollar on the (many) imported goods America relies on?
If you were referring to me as a “hothead” then I think you mistake my candor as an emotional response mechanism.
It’s not.
I just don’t care for liars, braggarts, fools, and deceivers and I like to “out” them, especially when I feel that they pervert or subvert the topic(s) at hand in order to self-aggrandize.
That’s all there is to it.
I noticed some people trying to suggest Japan RE is increasing in value. Such is absolutely not the case at nationwide, as for the major urban centers well I can not say with any confidence. As for the bubble, I notice some others making like what monetary policy is pursued determines the fate of the RE bubble. Again, such is not the case. Bubbles are very simple creatures, they inflate and collapse. Monetary policy only impacts the initial phases of a bubble and the length of the collapse, nothing more. DO NOT let these people suck you into buying.
#87 betamax — “Great pic, though I’m surprise by the lack of drool.” — Strawberry flavored drool extra, but HST exempt!
#125 Spiltbongwater — “But have some fun with Muhammed and all hell breaks loose.” — A link posted Thursday said it was a CIA / Mossad job. That is their sole purpose — to disrupt other countries, create trouble then run when the authorities figure out who was responsible.
#149 Blacksheep — ” The Cattle aren’t seeing the big picture. Global trade is upon us. Western living standards are falling (and unfortunately must) in an attempt to compete. QE is pushing their dollar down and ours up. Bennie can try to push the QE rope all he wants (he’s out’a tools) but with out demand driving growth, it means nothing.” — Well put. To say the west is in a funk would be overstating the obvious, and with the stories as to how the economy is growing and getting better — well, it is an election year. What else is the m$m supposed to say?
#158 daystar — “An Asian union?” — I understand, ‘tho not sure that there is already some kind of union, but Russia has proposed an EU situation.
“Raise taxes, cut government services, cut defense spending, grow up and pay the piper in an effort to keep the dollar from imploding . . .” — Again, I was under the impression from a week or two ago, that the Pentagon has had its budget trimmed by a significant amount, but things always change.
#166 daystar — “. . . the ECB and U.S. fed have harmonized the timing of their choices too close to a U.S. presidential election to be coincidental and that has a message within itself.” — That is an adequate assessment!
72 Smoking Man — “You are an agitator, you offer no input, analyisis, opinion, just chirp posters, . . .” + #176 Smoking Man — “. . . note the extra testosterone in his post, the man has no release”
Good call. By responding, you’re giving him the attention he craves. Let him babble on, but let it go in one ear and out the other, but don’t answer.
#134 banpao
Too bad the house you bought in 2008 that you plan to pay off will only be worth what is was in 2003…
Mortage free, sure.. But that was a lot of payments for .5 of the equity.
What better way to celebrate falling condo prices then with a fresh new batch of new condos ready to be dumped on the market.
http://i45.tinypic.com/349assl.png
Penpal;
Quit while you are not so far behind as is possible.
Is that succinct enough for you?
penpal
shut,you’re boring me
MADISON, Wis. — A Wisconsin judge on Friday struck down nearly all of the state law championed by Gov. Scott Walker that effectively ended collective bargaining rights for most public workers.
Walker’s administration immediately vowed to appeal
Read more: http://www.wisn.com/politics/wisconsin-politics/Judge-strikes-down-collective-bargaining-law/-/10057500/16610386/-/y3i5lhz/-/index.html#ixzz26Ug1CLXK
@ # 181 Form Man
You gave me a chuckle with that description, thanks!
For a real laugh however, look at DA’s posting at # 182 wherein he “translates” ( or rather attempts to spin ) the 13 months of inventory.
And, incredibly, he laments the unsavory reputation that these used house salespeople have EARNED themselves?
Smoking Man if you are going to Garth’s seminar all might not be lost for you except a front row seat. My financial advisor for orange juice contracts who is my weather witch has one beautiful daughter. Now she is just 27 years old, and will be going too, and has lots of money, and thinks you are cool and she is hoping to hook-up with you for expert investment tips. Look for her in the crowd wearing lots of gold jewelry holding a small sign with SM on it.
@ # 195 Salonist
I guess you should go back to “Call of Duty” or some other diversion that doesn’t make you think too much nor critically.
Have a pleasant evening – if you can manage that.
Sorry Vald I’m weak
Penpal I must concede your key stroke combos and deep vocabulary far exceed anything I could ever hope to be close too. I would never beat you in a war of words, you are good.
Dude I don’t even know what ad-hominem means, how can I ever hope to respond to something like that.
But what I am certain 100% , is you are a short man that don’t get laid much.
@ # 194 aka D. A.
Ah, I see you are straying from your core incompetency.
Aren’t you having a hard enough time trying to keep up the payments and hanging on to that mythical “Hot Wife” you’ve bragged about, but never revealed to us?
Concentrate on the people you can bs and con.
In case you hadn’t noticed, that ain’t me buddy.
#185 penpal on 09.14.12 at 6:27 pm
You said I was into
hookers,
drugs ,
gambling,
infidelity,
lying,
braggadaccio,
bad manners,
hangovers,
getting wasted to alleviate the pain of being herself,
a limited intellect,
rampant self esteem issues,
denigrating others,
a chaotic lifestyle,
immorality,
deception,
Thank You penpal I now know what I am best suited for
Why Politics.
Please Garth put the 2 kids (penpal / SM) into Time out
That’s right Larry the Realtor, there’s an invisible force at work that is having an effect on your take home pay, it’s called a real estate market correction, to say the least.
Just be grateful there was a real estate bubble that you’ve profited from for the past number of years. Get with the program, and stop trying to lure in property virgins when you know the truth, sheesh.
Last one Grath promise
Penpal, I as the most literature and most prolific poster on this pathetic blog I have you beat hands down. I two areas.
Predicting major market trend changes down to the minute at times, and most important.
Entertaining Likability. You fail that miserably, you
What a waste of a magnificent writing ability.
@ # 191 Nostramus Le Mad Vlad
I’m rather surprised by your comments about my postings.
With all the links you post, I thought you were a seeker of truth and substantiated fact, not braggging, inuendo, ad hominem atttacks and other such vices which you probably would not accept /condone in the articles that you link to.
I guess you believe everything you read.
For all your pretense at reading widely and objectively, you have revealed your subjective and rather parochial view of the facts.
At your age, and after a lifetime of experience, I am frankly disappointed that you commented as you did.
I fear you prove the old adage “…there is no fool like an old fool..” all too well.
Enjoy your delusion – maybe stronger meds may help you with that critical thinking thingy.
What a group we have tonite.
Next!
I guess th
Lets hope Helicopter Ben can get more ink for the US printing press.
OMG 40 Billion a month for ever. Out of thin air.
His solution for the current USA problem is to super inflate the housing bubble. Cmon China and etc, the US green back ain’t worth $hit. You can invest in the us bond and get nothing in return. WTF!!! I can see greece super charge repeat. If you invest in US bonds there is a good chance you lose 70 %
#184 GTA Girl – I take VIA to Montreal and stay at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel, as had investments jointly with a Judge and a Medical doctor from old times; we blew it all off many months ago. Your assessment is correct, as Montreal will be taking a huge hit in 2013.
@ # 202 Smoking Man
Your delusion knows no bounds.
Why don’t you post your picture on your website?
# 203 Helga
Is that your contribution to the blog?
Why not read through the thread in its entirety.
Perhaps you can’t concentrate your thinking for that long a span at one time.
Not 1st wrote:
“The U.S. economy will rebound when it repatriates its overseas manufacturing, produces most of its own resources (including oil) and can convinces people that shopping dollar stores and Walmart is self defeating in the long run. So as you can see, its a long way off. Until then, we have fed rallies ever few quarters!!!”
It was hardly a pivotal event. You guys should get out more. — Garth
——–
Pivotal event? Who cares? Talk about the curtain being pulled back day to day ( and on some days more than others).
Not 1st mentioned some relevant systemic principles. These were ignored in order to favor an irrelevant discussion of whether what has happened is “pivotal” or
not.
It’s more of the same. What’s always been is being revealed now. What might be pivotal in the story line is when events obviously meaning one thing are taken to mean another….all in the name of protecting a belief system.
If the debate doesn’t include central banking such as it is…it’s a pretty weak debate.
Look at this guy he attacks everyone.
Penpal you’re going to scare people form sharing, there thoughts, keep this up and you will have no one left insult.
Do you want a few bucks for a hooker, man you really need a happy ending.
Gartho give this dude an amazon.
#209 penpal on 09.14.12 at 9:20 pm
DELETED. This is over — Garth
@ # 205 Smoking Man
LAST POST TONIGHT
I look very much forward to seeing you in person at Garth’s presentation.
Then we’ll see if your descriptions of me are accurate.
Then we’ll see how big I really am and how big you really are.
Bring whatever passes for your A game, if you have one.
Naked Capitalism / By Yves Smith 6 COMMENTS The New Real Estate Train Wreck Coming Your Way: Securitized Rentals
Wall Street eyes rental properties in a money-making scheme likely to screw both investors and renters. Whoopee
http://www.alternet.org/economy/new-real-estate-train-wreck-coming-your-way-securitized-rentals
192 JR – mortgage free by mid 30s? I would call that priceless.
#76 BPOE:
I think you’re actually getting more moronic.
How is that possible??
#23 TOUGH TIMES – Canada never could compete with the US because it’s a resource-based country not a manufacturing one and its rate of productivity has always been below that of the US, yet relatively, the Canadian workers including government emplyees are better paid with salaries and benefits than their counterparts below the border. Why this is is arguable but I don’t think it’s the USA’s fault.
#132 Old Man – Might tell the Queen of the Amazons – worse, he might tell the Queen of Canada. You know, that British lady.
Hey Garth
“I happened to look over and saw her gaze lifting to a glass tower, a crane thrusting from its top. She misted, aroused.”
Don’t cranes bring babies?
I’m not convinced she was thinking of houses.
Boof
Re post 74
It meant to read 9$ gas in the UK not US, yet.
Old man: the Queen Elizabeth Hotel, fantastic. I stayed there for two weeks and then later a few days while on business in Montreal. Classic Fairmont elegance but what really stuck out was the service and great food in both restaruants:
Les Voyageurs and Le Montréalais. The staff are mostly the “old guard” with many years of service. They will take care of you.
The desert buffet is a hidden gem of a value.
Two people I worked with while there were just getting into new Condos.
To Garth Turner and Olderbutwiser #133 please give me your financial analysis like I did already two times with plenty of detail and planning.