Bad things

For the past two years the average DOM in mid-town Toronto has been 17. That means if you listed your house on September 13th, you’d have a firm and executed offer in hand by the thirtieth. This has imbued real estate in such demand areas with a rare and precious quality – liquidity.

In contrast, the average days-on-market on the south shore of Nova Scotia, also a demand area, is 177. Not much liquidity there. And in a place like the Westide of Vancouver, where houses a year ago often sold within hours of listed, there’s now a 13-month supply. Where’s the damn Phillips Lady when you really need her?

Housing grows more turgid each passing week. I tried explaining that yesterday to the airline pilot living deep in the folds and creases of the Okanagan Valley, where he has a $2 million waterfront property and just $100,000 in RRSPs as he nears retirement. “This is not a happy asset allocation,” I said, as he told me how much he was worth. “Try selling the house for six months and see.” As Cap’n Jack will discover, an illiquid house is worth nothing. Just bills.

Let’s use poor Vancouver as an example of what happens when hot turns not. For an on-the-spot report we turn to one of our insiders:

“September’s first week has gone by.  We’re well on track to have the worst September in 12 years.  A couple of disasters now are North Vancouver (the last bastion of 2-salary professional home buying).  Can Richmond really go lower?  Well – last month was a disaster – this month we are now on track for only 45 sales (down again from 60).  We’ll see how this goes.

“Just saw an interesting sale in Quilchena in Vancouver.  Sold for 1.5M which was 600,000 below assessed.  The owner was likely 80 years old, bought 55 years ago.  This was big lot in a great area.  An area I would really like to live in.  This was a 6,000 sq foot lot.  Took a while to sell and I’m sure the owner said she just wanted her money.  They did list close to $2 million but on the 3rd price drop a low ball came in and she took it.  Must be shocking.

“Anyhow, we are on track for 1360 sales compared 1585 in 2008.  That’s a pretty decent drop – and may even get the MOI above the 2008 level. People here are so completely delusional.  It is hard to wish bad things on people but I would just love to see the smugness removed from the faces of the industry ‘experts’.  They are all completely useless and biased.”

Hmmm. Didn’t all those Van realtors tell people the summer crash was a fluke and things would bounce back once September arrived? Come to think of it, why are some houses in North Toronto sitting around for a month or more? And suffering the indignity of price reductions?

The answer’s simple.  Economics. Supply and demand. Supply may be a decent babe, but demand just screwed off on a Harley headed south. Buyers aren’t just balking at current prices, they’re not even showing up. And no wonder. Now that F & the Peckerettes have made needed changes to slovenly banker lending practices, the market’s fraying before our eyes.

First-time buyers were Ottawa’s target. Only now is it apparent what a big deal it was to murder insured 30-year amortizations, replacing them with terms of just twenty-five. Back in March I told you this was coming, and suggested the impact would be major. Realtors scoffed. Now they weep as they hand over their Bimmer keys.

As Genworth CEO Brian Hurley told a mortgage trade site the other day: “These are pretty dramatic changes, and I think they’re getting close to the tipping point. We see really qualified first-time home buyers with very high credit scores now not meeting the bar because they can’t afford a 25-year amortization. These people should be getting a home.” Sure they should. Along with ponies and slaves.

Said TD Economics to Canadian Mortgage Trends: “There is little doubt that first-time home buyers – a market segment that has comprised as much as half of total Canadian sales in recent years – have been the most affected by the tightening in mortgage insurance rules.”

And homebuilders from BC to Ontario have already started lobbying the feds to roll back the change, which had the same effect as a 1% hike in mortgage rates. It came at the same time banks were told to end cash-back mortgages, get tough on appraisals, and demand borrowers meet a higher income qualification.

In a normal market, this would be minor tweaking. But after years of house horniness, that bloated prices and swelled debt, it’s enough to fell an empire. The consequence is what this pathetic blog has warned about repeatedly, the leveler of the US middle class: Illiquidity.

As DOM goes up, price comes down.

* * *
I notice some wag asked this week what’s wrong with GICs, after I’d callously dissed them.

I’ll let Charles answer that. He just sent me this:

I would like to let you know that I appreciate the help you are giving others.  I wish I read your blog 15 years ago and hopefully your advice will help someone else not make the same stupid mistake I made:

When I turned 20 my brother and I inherited 20K each.  A month later I found myself at a bank sponsored event where a speaker talked about the virtues of GIC’s and compound interest growth.  Unfortunately I turned around and stuck the 20K into a GIC and a high-interest savings account.  My brother took his money and bought a bunch of blue chip stock and enrolled in their DRIP programs. He then contributed a bit of extra cash to his DRIP’s every few months. He said I was a fool and should follow his lead. I told him that I preferred the safety of a GIC.  Fast forward 12 years and my 20K was worth slightly more than 20K but much less when adjusted for inflation. My brother had close to 500K.  Luckily I’ve smarted up and learned how to invest but I sure wish I had that 12 years back.

154 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 09.11.12 at 9:58 pm

The Harper Government [sic] will raise the TFSA limit to 10k, keeping pace with inflation, right after they give us an elected Senate! What a knee slapper. Fool me once…

Sure, the Glorious Leader has “balz” to close an embassy in a tiny country that most people could not even find on a map. After openly pledging his support to the rogue nuclear nation Israel (A British creation).

What about his Canadian subjects? Let them eat cake. People are starving over in the “BPOE”:

http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/whistler/whistler-food-banks-foodworx-raises-3825-and-996-lbs-in-food/Content?oid=2318807

“Meanwhile, the situation to the south in Squamish is the exact opposite. They are out of food, desperate, with fears that the next food bank day on Sept. 5 will be its last for the immediate future.

With 400 people, one third of those being children, given food aid twice a month, Squamish Food Bank president Susan Newman is under pressure. The state of the economy is to blame, she said.

“I have never seen it this bad, not here. Everybody’s hurting,” Newman said.

“We do have some cash due to come in, so we will be open on the 5th, but how much further I don’t know.”

When asked what her options are, Newman despondently responded with, “Other than closing down?” She said she hoped media attention would bring in money and food donations.”

How many times do you hit refresh to post within ten seconds of my blog? Do you have an actual life? — Garth

#2 Rob on 09.11.12 at 10:06 pm

” Fast forward 12 years and my 20K was worth sllghtly more than 20K”…this must be an error! Even given low interest rates, the money must have earned more than close to zero interest.

#3 Cassandra on 09.11.12 at 10:06 pm

Home owners better pull their socks up NOW!

Chrysler’s President is threatening to pull Chrysler OUT OF CANADA meanwhile ..

The Bank of Canada continues to print a bogus low inflation rate but we all know that it’s getting tougher to pay bills and make ends meet. Bonehead Carney continues to jawbone the Canadian dollar higher as thou he has a death wish for the manufacturers and exporters in this country. Most of us have become slaves to the governments and banks has they embezzle over half our income from taxation and interest payments.

#4 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 09.11.12 at 10:14 pm

Hi Garth,

Thank you for letting those that disagree with you. That is very democratic of you.

177 DOM in Nova Scotia is because sellers absolutely refuse to move on price. Not one dollar. I’ve looked at building lots on some lakes near Halifax and the RE agents sent me the lot plans. Would you believe that most of these lot plans are from 2002 and despite developers waiting for buyers for 10 years, the asking prices haven’t budged and the goofy restrictive covenants haven’t slacked off one bit?

It is not just developers but home owners as well. The house across the street from me was for sale all of 2010 and again she listed in 2011 for the same price of $229,000. She tried to sell it this year, too and she refuses to move on price. RE has always been slow here so the hope is that the ship building contract will create demand for houses so people are holding off.

I wonder what will happen if the economy slows down…

#5 kreditanstalt on 09.11.12 at 10:15 pm

If 30-year amortization turning into a 25 is a “…pretty dramatic change…”, and this is all happening with near-zero ‘official’ interest rates and super-cheap mortgage money…

…what does THAT tell you about the sustainability of Canadian houseprices?

A 50% fall in overall Canadian house prices probably wouldn’t be enough…

#6 TurnerNation on 09.11.12 at 10:15 pm

Garth, I had a time of 10:05pm EST in mind tonight and it was close enough. That’s all I can say. Synchronicity.
Believe it or not.

#7 Ex-Cowtown on 09.11.12 at 10:20 pm

So… with it becoming more difficult for bozos to borrow millions of fake $$$, it may be possible, just possible that cash will mean something again.

#8 Ronaldo on 09.11.12 at 10:25 pm

#122 Jess – from previous post.

Thanks for the link. Much appreciated.

#9 unhappy househunter on 09.11.12 at 10:33 pm

pimco monthly income fund 17.15% year to date

#10 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.11.12 at 10:37 pm

As noted many times on this blog, Days On Market is also manipulated by the constant re-listing that realtors do for stale properties. An average DOM of 17 in Toronto largely omits any property that took more than 30 days to sell, since the listing would simply be taken down and re-listed later on.

#11 SkyMager on 09.11.12 at 10:37 pm

Re: post # 1…

Garth, you are an RE/investment rock star.

Get use to groupies waiting around for hours to watch exit the building (or blog).

Consider it a compliment.

#12 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.11.12 at 10:42 pm

Well, Charles, you can not go back. Since you wanted what I call the “false sense of security” you put ALL your inherited dough in a GIC. Your brother put his in Stocks.

I would have done more like your brother. I likely would have put 30% into Bonds of some sort, the rest into stocks, especially if that were my only savings.

Since this was inherited money, I like to think this was a “boost” to whatever are your own savings plans.
As such your brother is the clear winner here.

While stocks are no “guaranteed” investment, they will usually over time beat the rest. That said, it might be a LONG time as money put into an S&P index fund and left there the past 12 years was not the best investment.
Blue Chip dividend payers much better. Bonds over the past 12 years probably did even better.

That was then, THIS is NOW. Expect Bonds to outperform in the next decade? Highly doubtful. You probably won’t beat inflation based on the basement rates of today, and the likelihood of increasing interest rates -anathema for bonds. Stocks will likely go up and down, much as they have for the last decade.

Ya takes your chances, and ya pays your dues. You Chucky have 200K, your brother 500K. Could you have slept through the troubles of 2008, or would you have sold out at the bottom?

Then you would have had even less. Think of THAT!!!

#13 Unrealistic on 09.11.12 at 10:43 pm

Charles’ brothers returns are unrealistic.

If one had $20K and earned an average rate of return of 15% over 12 years (more then double what Garth tells us to expect), then one would expect to have around $93K after 12 years.

This is still WAY better then GICs but nowhere near 500K. I doubt that buying “blue chips” and reinvesting dividends will get anyone $500K from $20K over 12 years.

#14 TRT on 09.11.12 at 10:43 pm

Daystar,

Guess you haven’t heard about TFW and TFS streams. And the fact that there are no exit controls in Canada.

You can come as a student and stay indefinitely. No monitoring to see if you’ve left. It’s assumed.

And these numbers are not counted in census…

#15 just learning on 09.11.12 at 10:52 pm

#1 TurnerNation


How many times do you hit refresh to post within ten seconds of my blog? Do you have an actual life? – Garth
————————

Just a theory…

Given the amount of times he is the first poster, maybe he has a computer program automatically adding the first comment… it’s not hard to implement.

Garth, you live in your financial world… some people live in computer worlds… the funny part is to mix them both.

#16 Suede on 09.11.12 at 10:52 pm

Smoking Man, you better make sure your tax farm slaves aren’t going to make money off you by being honest and brainwashed!

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/11/ubs-whistleblower-gets-us104-million-irs-award/

#17 Chaddywack on 09.11.12 at 10:56 pm

Any chance the feds will renege on the 25 year amortization?

No. — Garth

#18 Devore on 09.11.12 at 11:04 pm

We see really qualified first-time home buyers with very high credit scores now not meeting the bar because they can’t afford a 25-year amortization. These people should be getting a home.

No they should not. People have gotten far too used to 0/40 mortgages. 20/25 is the norm. Even today’s 5/25 is easy money that any couple that can tighten the belt for a year can easy qualify for.

Easy credit got us into this mess. Easy credit will not get us out.

#19 Honus Wagner on 09.11.12 at 11:04 pm

“He then contributed a bit of extra cash to his DRIP’s every few months.”

If by bit the writer meant a large amount, then ok. To grow 20k to 500k in 12 years requires a very high annual compounding rate on its own. I would go as far as suggest a relatively high savings rate was responsible for getting to 500k. There is a good lesson here though: one needs to save.

“…but much less when adjusted for inflation.”

The adjustment for inflation is the same for both investments, so it is irrelevant in the comparison.

#20 Cowpie on 09.11.12 at 11:07 pm

Garth – no wags here! Just a liquid, debt free, low maint, non HHHW with 400K in GICs and a desire to learn.
Had intended to invest in land near Cowtown, seeing RE here drop 30-100K in the last 8 months so will wait for 2014.
Your advice has been timely. Think I’ll rescue my nest eggfrom RBC’s clutches, can’t stand those guys anyway!

#21 LH on 09.11.12 at 11:09 pm

Busy day in C01, C02, C03

http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL.asp?link_no=45238340.175000

Is the market coming back?
Pencil thin houses (like 5 Joseph Salsberg Lane , 13.5×62 lot, selling for 675k) going like hotcakes

#22 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.11.12 at 11:10 pm

A good summary of the current slowdown/over-supply situation for Vancouver-Toronto-Montreal in Macleans:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/

#23 Financial Uproar on 09.11.12 at 11:12 pm

I crunched the numbers for Charles’ brother. Assuming:

$20k original investment
$1000 per year additional investment

It would have taken a 28.7% annual return to grow the investment to $500k in 12 years. Totally realistic.

#24 Trader on 09.11.12 at 11:20 pm

Even I have trouble with the brother’s $480,000 return. In 12 years, only contributing a little each month??? Yea, right!

Realistic, knowing what he was doing or having a pro trader at his beck and call, he might have taken the $20,000 to $80,000… But I don’t think he was pro, not boosting of those type of returns!

#25 Canadian Watchdog on 09.11.12 at 11:20 pm

This is a new chart I put together to monitor Vancouver’s market. I’ll update and post it here weekly.

http://i49.tinypic.com/20qjk0w.png

#26 Jon B on 09.11.12 at 11:21 pm

Good to hear Charles’ brother hit the big time with his investments. Funny how we rarely hear about investment losses. Or maybe there is no such thing as losing money in a balanced portfolio?

Didn’t sound balanced to me. — Garth

#27 InvestX on 09.11.12 at 11:22 pm

13 Unrealistic:
Charles’ brothers returns are unrealistic.

If one had $20K and earned an average rate of return of 15% over 12 years (more then double what Garth tells us to expect), then one would expect to have around $93K after 12 years.
————————————————————-

Thanks for doing the calculation. I was wondering about the brother’s return also.

Still, a better a return, of course.

#28 Mithan on 09.11.12 at 11:27 pm

It is funny how a single percent of interest can affect people. When I bought my house in 2008, I was at 5% but left myself bugetary room for it to go to 10% before I would have to seriously worry about it. (borrowed $200k)

I sold the house so dont care now, but the idea that people would max themselves out to where a percent or two of interest will sink them is crazy…

Personally, I think mortgage rules should be even tighter. High home prices don’t help the economy, it only forces people into massive debt and a failure to save for retirement and other expenses, but I guess we are cnadian and used to the government paying for it all. Just curious if harper will allow that for much longer…

#29 squidly77 on 09.11.12 at 11:29 pm

100% without a doubt, Canada is in the midst of an immense housing bubble. The Canadian bubble outlasted bubbles in China and Australia. Because it did, I get taunts from Canadian readers all the time.

The bigger the bubble the bigger the bust. It’ll start in Canadas largest cities and spread like wild fire – Buckle up – this is it folks.

The only winners will be those with liquidity. Kinda rimes with squidly doesn’t it. Yeah, I did get it that long ago.

#30 Bad things | The Retiring Boomer™ on 09.11.12 at 11:31 pm

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#31 Tim on 09.11.12 at 11:35 pm

Prices of most condos and townhomes on the west side of Vancouver have barely budged despite all this gloom and doom.

Are they selling? — Garth

#32 Potato on 09.11.12 at 11:38 pm

“There is little doubt that first-time home buyers – a market segment that has comprised as much as half of total Canadian sales in recent years – …”

I’m surprised this little factoid, casually thrown about from time to time, doesn’t scare more people.

What’s the average hold time for real estate, 10 years, less? If the average person buys their first home somewhere in their 30’s and holds until their 70’s, then on average each person buys a house/unit 3-4 (or more times) in their life. So in a stable market, first time buyers should make up less than a third of all buyers… Either I’m wrong on holding time (I suspect if anything it’s shorter on average), or there’s a lot of future demand being borrowed, which will have to be paid back…

#33 Deliverator on 09.11.12 at 11:41 pm

DRIP=?

#34 squidly77 on 09.11.12 at 11:48 pm

Something is wrong with that link – I’ll try this.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/09/canadian-exports-collapse-expect-plunge.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)

#35 Kilt on 09.11.12 at 11:53 pm

Interesting listen.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+entrepreneur+Frank+Giustra+YouTube+interview/7224055/story.html

The Okanagan has done a lot better in 2012 than in 2011 and Calgary and Edmonton seem to be having a pretty good year. Even most places in Vancouver are doing better price-wise than they did in 2011. Yah, I know sales drop first then prices. We’ll see.
Vancouver Island looks to be softening a bit though.

I am still sitting on the sidelines, but don’t see value anywhere.

Kilt.

#36 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 09.11.12 at 11:55 pm

Sno-King Ham

Please clean up the rubber room and take the centerfolds off the wall.

We have sold your room to offshore (aka HAM) interests.

Oh yeah? same to you you DELETED F$%^ DELETED &** DELETED ___^%&

#37 Big Al New on 09.12.12 at 12:03 am

We’ll see how long the Bank of Canada is willing to let a 3-5% over parity on the dollar stand, as this will decimate manufacturers. Maybe the changes in the mortgage rates was a preemptive strike to try and stifle demand for a while, giving the B of C a chance to drop rates to devalue the buck. This is serious pain for anyone building anything in Canada for US consumption.

#38 Mr Buyer on 09.12.12 at 12:22 am

THE MARKET IS NOT RECOVERING. NOT IN CANADA AND CERTAINLY NOT IN JAPAN.

#39 nocte_volens on 09.12.12 at 12:23 am

#33 Deliverator

Drip = Dividend ReInvestment Program. Your earned dividends are automatically used to purchase more shares.

#40 Patiently waiting on 09.12.12 at 12:32 am

I work in a department where many of my co-workers can make close to six figures and are mostly aged between 25 and 50. For the past five years I have been constantly told to take the plunge and buy a property with all the usual arguments like: “You shouldn’t pay somebody’s elses mortgage,” or “Buy now or be priced out forever,” or the most irritating “There is no more land in Vancouver.” For the most part I just kept quiet and nodded away as I was getting real estate advice from people who shouldn’t be giving any.

I had to endure this abuse for five whole years and I wanted to argue that the fundamentals just didn’t justify buying a property. But as prices continually went up I knew my arguments would fall on deaf years. Despite months of falling sales I have noticed that prices have pretty much stayed the same and the real estate mentality also remained unchanged. But this past week something changed. I could see the real estate tide starting to turn the other way. I had two separate conversations with two different co-workers which convince me that I can finally see the light at the end of the real estate tunnel.

CASE #1. 27 year old co-worker, still lives at home in Richmond, is engaged to a future dentist. Her family are small time builders that build houses one at a time. She tells me she wants to buy a single family house in Richmond as income property and one day she wants to knock it down and build her own house; meanwhile, she would be building up her equity. She has been looking at property around $750,000 but won’t pull the trigger until the same properties go for $650,000. She figures she can rent out the house in three portions and pull in $4000 per month. I don’t know what she has for a down payment but I can’t see how this makes any economic sense. But the main thing is her “builder” daddy fully expects for Richmond SFH prices to drop 15% in the near future. After telling me her intentions I asked her: “What happens if prices drop more than 15%?” She then gives me a blank stare and I can tell she has not even considered that as a possiblity.

CASE#2 25 year old coworker just got married and had a baby and is pregnant with baby #2. Her husband is a used car salesman. She bought a Richmond two bedroom condo in July 2010 for $360,000. Since her family is expanding she had put in an offer for a 2000 square foot townhouse in POCO for around $480,000 which was accepted and financing was taken care of as long as she sold her current property. I remember warning her about buying property in Richmond but her biggest argument was “Where else are all the rich Chinese immigrants are going to go?” Here is the kicker: She needed to sell her property for at least $345,000 but three agents would not even list her property unless she listed at $330,000. She was told that in her area nothing has moved since February. So I asked her “What are you going to do now?” and she says she will have to wait for things to turn around. I really like this co-worker and since she is now pregnant/emotional I decided not to give her a dose of reality but I think she is stuck in her 700 square foot condo with her family of four for the forseeable future.

The best part came at the end of our conversation when she said, “I wish I were you and just waited. But everybody was telling me to buy,buy,buy at the time. Now I am just stuck. Don’t make the same mistake that I made.”

I have to admit that felt pretty good.

#41 Jay Currie on 09.12.12 at 12:37 am

DRIP=Dividend ReInvestment Plan.

As to the 12 years to 500k…well, an early homerun or two could have easily taking 20 to 100. But from there it would be tough sledding.

And that sort of investing is not a long term strategy.

#42 Bill on 09.12.12 at 12:38 am

#4 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 09.11.12 at 10:14 pm

Had to laugh because I immediately knew what house you were talking about. Double checked the days on market and sure enough it matched. I’ve been watching this one all summer myself, although it has had a couple price reductions from the 999,000 it started at. However it is still overpriced in my opinion. “… a 1.3 acre waterfront property which includes 2 islands …” Sure, but the part of the lake it is on is more like a marsh. There is no way you’d want to swim in the water behind the house like the ad says. Maybe they are hoping it will sell during the winter when you can’t tell how deep the frozen over lake is. That would be a rude awakening for the buyer… From the sales history it looks like someone bought it two years prior and fixed it up to flip it. Profit margin is very quickly eroding away.

Don’t worry I’m not in the market for it myself. Just a curious observer who lives near by.

#43 Blacksheep on 09.12.12 at 12:47 am

John # 131.

“I am only saying “it is what it is”…and we are all in it together. It’s going to be difficult to bring the situation forward without developing some other priorities which don’t set us up for a “win-lose” interaction.”
—————————————
“It is what it is”

Agreed.

“We are all in it together”

This is were we part views. I have charitable actions I take, which is a personal matter. Choosing to forfeit revenue to persons of lesser abilities as some form of socialistic sharing is not natural, nor in my nature.

” It’s going to be difficult to bring the situation forward without developing some other priorities which don’t set us up for a “win-lose” interaction.”

I’m all for improving our ‘situation’. Problem is I don’t see a path. Moving ‘forward’ would require the enlightenment of the masses and that, is a non starter. The cattle are complacent as long as their sich is remotely comfortable….even tolerable. When do people suddenly become seriously interested in what’s really taking place in their lives?

When they have their own little SHTF event. Harsh divorce, loss of career job, bankruptcy, terminal illness, or anything that breaks the hypnotic trance of the good old hockey game.
The challenge going forward, is not saving, but teaching the masses to effectively play the game until critical mass can be achieved and only at that point, can the games rules, be peacefully changed for the greater good.

The collective holds the power, unfortunately, this knowledge has been bred out of them.

take care
Blacksheep

#44 realtors are in a panic on 09.12.12 at 12:54 am

Looks like realtor LG ruined the RE board excuse of not allowing information to be opened up for privacy concerns. I also laugh at realtors who cherry pick the few sales. The fact is very little is selling. Drive around the city and see a sea of for sale signs. If the market was doing well realtors like you wouldn’t be here. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors a nasty crash.

#45 Blacksheep on 09.12.12 at 1:15 am

Daystar #142,

“If you were a parent and something abusive and obscene”

Children? You never mentioned children.
Your now comparing censorship involving children, with your suggested censorship, on a public forum of critically thinking adults?

Here is what you suggested censorship of : “cruel behavior behind the misguided comment” Your attempt to subtly suggest censorship, over long periods of time, will not sweeten, it’s sour taste.

“If the systems of democracy don’t work for you, what systems of government, if any, will?”

The suggestion that mine or any amount of ‘votes’ could somehow fundamentally alter the pre chosen path this country is following, is an attempt at pure deception. Similar to your bleating on about censorship, you frequently redeliver the message, that we just need to vote: out / in, said: leader / party ‘X’ and only then, finally we will get change we desire.

I know the standard rhetoric:

If you don’t vote, you can’t complain. Brave soldiers sacrificed their lives to protect my freedom and right to vote. I’m sure that they 100% believed this as they died, making this form of crime, all the more disturbing.

Today you shared with us the extent of the corruption that has / is taking place:

“governments have combined to create roughly $425 billion of the $590.75 billion we owe federally today but the true current alarm lies with gross public debt at 109% of GDP that has grown by more than 40%”

You seem to be messaging this corruption, would not have occurred under other leadership / party? A newly elected, leader / party ‘Z’ will meaningfully reduce these outrageous debts?

Please.

I will remain polite and only label you, naive.

Really…you gott’a change it up, this rinse repeat program your on just isn’t cutting it. By the way, can you do me a solid and forward me your employers e-mail? If you are representative of the rest of the crew, they have got to be hiring : )

take care
Blacksheep

#46 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 1:24 am

At #31 Tim

Yes Tim that is a point well made.

I always wonder when people presume that just because houses are sitting on the market sellers will eventually “slash” prices……why?????

Sure I can see a 5 – 10 % price cut, ……….indeed I’m waiting and hoping for a modest correction, ………but a 40 – 50% crash as some are holding out for, seems like a pipe dream. That kind of correction would surely happen only if sellers were unable to hold onto their property and massive foreclosures occurred.

Another theory touted is that the boomers will cash in their equity, but again the same logic should apply. A boomer would cut his price by 5 – 10%, more then that he’d tell the buyer to take a hike. And the boomers are the richest generation, far more so than ours. If anyone has holding power, they most likely do.

All that said, hopefully the next 9 months will bring a modest correction, to a slightly over heated GTA.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Cheers,

H

#47 Devore on 09.12.12 at 1:26 am

#10 T.O. Bubble Boy

As noted many times on this blog, Days On Market is also manipulated by the constant re-listing that realtors do for stale properties. An average DOM of 17 in Toronto largely omits any property that took more than 30 days to sell, since the listing would simply be taken down and re-listed later on.

TO is in that space right now where it is tantamount to heresy to have a price change on a listing. Vancouver already went through this earlier.

Official days on market from a REB is anywhere from a little to A LOT lower than it should be, because they only look at the listing that sold. Just another way US and Zillow are superior, where sales, listing and price history is publicly available.

#48 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 09.12.12 at 1:39 am

#33 Deliverator – DRIP= Dividend ReInvestment Plan

#49 Rob the Dividend Trader on 09.12.12 at 2:49 am

FINALLY DRIPS get a mention!!! For 90% of Canadians they are the best way to go, simple and easy to understand. My Dad built up a large 6 figure investment account that way.

Here’s a great blog to learn more about DRIPS

Canadian DRIP stocks

Alternatively if you want to know more just google “Canadian DRIPS stocks” On my blog I personally don’t deal with them much.

Rob

#50 wayoutwest on 09.12.12 at 2:54 am

“And in a place like the Westide of Vancouver, …”

Ah, that explains why we’ll soon be underwater.
:-(

#51 Humpty Dumpty on 09.12.12 at 2:58 am

How Industry Canada Blew $13.7 Billion In Corporate Welfare….

And some very Bad people doing Bad Things.

http://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedFiles/fraser-ca/Content/research-news/research/publications/corporate-welfare-bargains-at-industry-canada.pdf

Accountability can be a b……

#52 Fort Mac Flatlander on 09.12.12 at 3:39 am

DRIP=Dividend Reinvestment Plan (I think)

#53 Superman on 09.12.12 at 3:50 am

THAT’S IT. Damnit Garth. Ignored two days in a row. I’m going to ask one more time.

QE3 THIS WEEK – YES OR NO?

Come on. You look like Bernanke… both of you with your giant beards. I’m sure you talk to him all the time. Maybe you actually are Bernanke, who knows. Man up, lift your sack up, answer my question or I’ll jinx your hummer.

Seriously man. This is your last chance. You are a former MP. My taxes PAID your salary! Your MP pension is partially funded by my blood and sweat. I request – NO – I demand an answer.

I will refresh throughout the night constantly and refuse to sleep until you answer me. Therefore, if you choose not to answer me, and I die, the blood is on your hands. Sigh. Now I’m all worked up.

#54 Superman on 09.12.12 at 3:52 am

I’m tired…

#55 COW MAN on 09.12.12 at 6:48 am

GIC versus Stocks

IN 1999 I invested over $450,000 in Manulife GIF’s . Various Equity Mutual Funds sold by Manulife with guaranteed principle returns after 10 years. In 2009 I got my principle back. Manulife coughed up over 30% ($150,000) to cover the loses on the GIF’s . Millions were lost by Manulife over this product. The major reason why MFC’s share value has tanked. My return over 10 years $0. I got my principle back. There are two sides to the GIC story.

#56 cropgrower on 09.12.12 at 7:02 am

…..your brother must be very, very, very smart…….he should write a book…..

#57 House Horny Housewife on 09.12.12 at 7:25 am

Oh please, are you kidding me ?!

For 20K to turn into 500K in 15 years you would have to make between 20 to 25% interest annually on average to come to that amount. How much did his brother “top it up” exactly ? And this guy also “top it up” by the same amount ?

I am not saying that GIC’s are the greatest long term investment in the world. They obviously are not. But to say that over 15 years the guy’s 20K investment was not able to make more than the 20K is ridiculous because at 3%, he should have at least 50% more money in that account. This will give him something to work with in the future.

Let’s see now … 30 grand over 15 more years at 25% interest compounded should come out to over a million dollars .. his retirement is all taken care of (unless he is already 65 that is). And who knows how much more he can have in the bank if he happens to “top it up” … ha ha ha !

HHHW

#58 Bigrider on 09.12.12 at 7:36 am

I call BS on that story of the two brothers.

If his 20k grew to 500k in 12 years, he probably added 400k to 450 k of his own money over the 12 year period,continually saving.

His 20k in dividend payers ,with dividends included ,probably tripled in value at very best,give or take, not 25 times original invested value. Give me a break.

And as for first bro having just over his original 20k in GIC’s over same time period, he probably siphoned off some of the interest and spent it.

Come on people, think a little for yourselves.

#59 Bigrider on 09.12.12 at 7:39 am

Your assessment of the resale market for houses is spot on as resale homes are taking longer to sell but I can tell you that my sources for new home sales in the GTA, sources which are absolutley the best, tell me they cannot keep new homes on the shelves.

New home sites, well, there trailers are being bum rushed on opening day just like ever before.

The H1N1-gottahumpahoma virus alive and well.

#60 daystar on 09.12.12 at 7:44 am

#14 TRT on 09.11.12 at 10:43 pm

TFW and TFS are terms I’m not familiar with much, no. I’ve likely stumbled on the numbers in Canada on Student or work visa’s but never really paid much attention because I’ve assumed there’s just as many going as there are coming as work visa’s expire or students graduate. I can certainly see the value in knowing these numbers to get a better idea of excess housing capacity and/or oversupply in Canada nationally. To be honest, I was kind of hoping someone on this blog would get around to answering that equation for me if I haven’t already missed it. :)

#61 syfon on 09.12.12 at 7:46 am

Qe 3 or some form of easing 99% sure.
Do not expect Garth to answer that.
Think about it.

#62 Editor on 09.12.12 at 7:56 am

#46 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 1:24 am: “a 40 – 50% crash seems like a pipe dream. That kind of correction would surely happen only if sellers were unable to hold onto their property and massive foreclosures occurred.

“Another theory touted is that the boomers will cash in their equity, but again the same logic should apply. A boomer would cut his price by 5 – 10%, more then that he’d tell the buyer to take a hike. ”

—-

So, “it’s different here” even when we admit to a problem with over-valued housing. Even our corrections are different – they’re modest. Even our bubbles are different – they’re “slightly overheated.” Argh.

No one of any age has ever or will ever tell a buyer to “take a hike” when there is an offer on the table and the house simply must be sold. Boomers rich? Primarily on paper, due to house ‘equity.’ That equity, as we have seen everywhere else it was different, can evaporate very quickly in the busts that follow booms. Boomers are not wealthy, in Canada, in the USA, or anywhere else. There are rich Boomers and poor Boomers. The only thing we know for sure is that few rich are richer than ever, and the poor are more plentiful, and there are far fewer in the middle.

I guess it’s going to be “different here” all the way through the cycle.

#63 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 7:57 am

#16 Suede

There are two things I don’t do

1 walk around at night in Jane Finch wearing a rival gang bandana.

2 fk with CRA

Rev Can well it was my fault I cheated was the cause of my first bankruptcy.

I learned my leason. They scared my so much I over pay. And get refunds at year end and in feb.

They are merceyless

#64 Don't read his post on 09.12.12 at 7:57 am

Superman….what’s the big deal with QE3 anyways?
Are you trying to make a quick 2% in gold? commodities have already priced in QE3. I will be be buying HGD & HOD reverse ETF’s as soon as the news comes out. Also what if they back down. Can you imagine what that would do to the market and especially commodities. At the end of the day it’s not worth losing sleep over. So let’s just do as uncle Garth says and balance the pie.
JMHO.

#65 Editor on 09.12.12 at 7:58 am

Near the end…meant to write, “we know for sure is that THE few rich are richer than ever…” Changes the meaning!

#66 not TURNERNATION on 09.12.12 at 8:01 am

Thanks Garth for the refresh comment, that was quite refreshing.

#67 Regan on 09.12.12 at 8:12 am

I’m starting to wonder if the housing boom has been a quiet way for the government to get the retiring boomers off their pension rolls. My parents have both benefited immensely, in a way that I never will. I’m sure some boomers will miss the boat because they spent all the money in HELOCs or will sell too late, but it’s keeping a lot of retirees afloat. It’s the basis of most people’s savings. And so, vast wealth is transferred to the retiring generation without a single parliamentary act of income redistribution or tax change. Watch for future announcements of increasing restrictions on CPP and OAS for seniors who have stashed away large cash sums.

#68 Gypsy Kid on 09.12.12 at 8:14 am

Patiently Waiting;
Your co-worker was 23 and she bought a condo for $360??? Wow. I do feel sorry for the young people these days….
You, on the other hand, is strong of will and smart. Dont walk with the herd. Be your own person and use your brains. I applaud you!!

#69 George on 09.12.12 at 8:25 am

Hate to be a fact checker….but, the GIC vs DRIP investing does not mention how much extra $$ the other brother was investing in his DRIP’s. To meet this $500K using an average yearly price appreciation of say 5% and an average increase in dividend yield of say 3% every year or so (current yields being 4% to 5%) he would of had to invest an extra $25K to $30K per year to attain a level of $500K invesmtent. I’m no trying to knock down the DRIP investment strategy (I for one swear by it), but let’s include more facts so people can see that it takes a certain amount of commitment and sacrifice to get to say $500K over a 10 to 12 year period, and not just sticking $20K into a few DRIP’s in year 1 and letting it ride.

#70 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 8:58 am

#67 Regan

Very good. Right on.

Anyone head my advice to go long oil last week?

#71 Hoser on 09.12.12 at 9:12 am

The brothers story is just Garth testing us to make sure our BS detectors are working.

#72 David on 09.12.12 at 9:18 am

The new rules only came into effect in June and these minor technical changes were made to prevent a bubble according to Flaherty and Carney.
Days on market and sales volumes are a good leading indicator of where this subprime fiasco is heading which is looking entirely predictable.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/09/11/canadas-housing-bubble-set-to-burst/

#73 Dupcheck on 09.12.12 at 9:24 am

Did anyone hear about the waste of taxpayer money MPAC is running. They apparently all their employees went in a pricy hotel spa retreat to retrain their tax increase tactics.

#74 Buy? Curious? on 09.12.12 at 9:26 am

The Rita MacNeil comment over the line?

Sorry, Man.

Here’s a short documentary on the housing situation in the US.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3rzN42HE00

#75 Calgary Rocks on 09.12.12 at 9:26 am

#1, Turner Nation: “Sure, the Glorious Leader has “balz” to close an embassy in a tiny country that most people could not even find on a map. After openly pledging his support to the rogue nuclear nation Israel (A British creation).”

Right on TurnerNation, 8 million Jews living in the midst of 500 million peace-loving Arabs … What a leftie idjit you are.

#76 X on 09.12.12 at 9:35 am

Still think there will be 2, .25% interested rate hikes this year?……or will they perhaps wait 6 months or so for the OSFI rules to have an impact to make a decision.

Any opinions on Bernanke doing some form of QE3 to help Obama get re-elected. ie market rally.

#77 Kevin on 09.12.12 at 9:38 am

“Back in March I told you this was coming” – Garth

You also said homeowners would have to requalify every time their loan came up for renewal.

“Fast forward 12 years and my 20K was worth slightly more than 20K but much less when adjusted for inflation. My brother had close to 500K.” – Charles

Wow, talk about selective data! Just how much “extra cash” did your brother chip in every “few months?” Because if it’s merely the token amount you imply, then he achieved a rate of return north of 23%! If you earned just 2%, then you’d still have $27,000 after 15 years. That’s hardly “slightly more.”

There’s a lot of very important data being omitted here, in the name of creating an extremely distorted version of history.

And of course, you’re completely omitting the element of “risk.” Your brother took more risk than you, so he got more reward. That’s kind of how it works.

Actually I did not say owners would need to automatically requalify. That is always at the lender’s discretion. — Garth

#78 John on 09.12.12 at 9:41 am

Rob now in Nova Scotia wrote:

“It is not just developers but home owners as well. The house across the street from me was for sale all of 2010 and again she listed in 2011 for the same price of $229,000. She tried to sell it this year, too and she refuses to move on price. RE has always been slow here so the hope is that the ship building contract will create demand for houses so people are holding off.

I wonder what will happen if the economy slows down…”
——–

There are a lot if hidden assumptions in the story. “Nova Scotia” is a region of people…unique. But those 229.000 dollars are international. So it might be a good idea to look there for Nova Scotian trends.

You talk about “the economy” slowing down. Build a basic model for that. What institutions and power brokers impact this? List things that happen inside Canada that could impact “the economy”. If your list of things impacting “the economy” inside Canada is uncertain or small…then what are we really talking about.

The woman selling can stick her head in the sand all she wants..that’s fine. It’ll work as long as we have a fake LIBOR, non-Canadian banks running Canada and twisting and turning knobs. But what happens when the entitites selling smoke, mirrors and a ponzi have gotten all they can get…and democracy is revealed as “democracy”.

What then?

Maybe people are asking the wrong questions and hanging on to something that hasn’t been real for a very long time now.

Maybe.

#79 Fred on 09.12.12 at 9:44 am

To turn 20k into nearly 500k in 15 years you’d need to be getting a steady 23+% p.a. return which doesn’t even happen for investing geniuses.

Obviously the brother was stuffing a fair amount of extra savings in too.

#80 Pr on 09.12.12 at 9:53 am

Like the BANK OF CANADA dosent know wath they are doing in keeping the interest rate, so low, for so long!! They have the best brain in the buisniess working for them. Bank of canada should be abolish and give back the control of the money to the people, for the people, as it always should be.

#81 Daisy Mae on 09.12.12 at 9:58 am

#17Chaddywack on 09.11.12 at 10:56 pm
Any chance the feds will renege on the 25 year amortization?

No. — Garth

***********************

The feds have realized their mistake and they won’t make it again. Their plan clearly backfired.

#82 45north on 09.12.12 at 10:04 am

Hawk: I always wonder when people presume that just because houses are sitting on the market sellers will eventually “slash” price – why?

you know the market is not a debate, same thing was asked in the US – the middle class was going to ride out the downturn. The big thing that happened was a lot of middle class people lost their jobs, a lot had their hours cut back.

#83 Daisy Mae on 09.12.12 at 10:18 am

#36 GRIM REAPER: “Oh yeah? same to you you DELETED F$%^ DELETED &** DELETED ___^%&”

******************

This is funny! Thanks! I needed a good laugh… LOL

#84 Tony on 09.12.12 at 10:23 am

Re: #35 Kilt on 09.11.12 at 11:53 pm

Watch as the foreclosure rates soar in all the cities you mentioned. It will be at least another 5 years before any of those cities prices hits bottom.

#85 John on 09.12.12 at 10:24 am

Hoser wrote:

“The brothers story is just Garth testing us to make sure our BS detectors are working.”
——

I think this kind of stuff in a debate is unwanted. The back message of “liar” and “manipulator” stinks. The best course is assume “straight up”…and go with whatever the argument is. I assume all stories are real. All. Your post hit my BS filter.

#86 disciple on 09.12.12 at 10:26 am

#4 Rob in N.S… It would be moot to move on price when you have no offers, wouldn’t it? Maybe that’s the problem? Last year there were no sellers, this year there are no buyers… and so the asking prices remain the same. Doesn’t seem logical does it?

#87 disciple on 09.12.12 at 10:28 am

#6 …Not. Synchronicity my gooblies, disciple knows…

#88 Jim on 09.12.12 at 10:41 am

#55 COW MAN

If you invested 450k in 1999 in a GIC, and then manulife coughed up 450k (your principal) in 2009, you did not make 0% in terms of returns. You lost purchasing power on your cash due to the devaluation of the currency in that time span, through inflation and other means.

#89 TimV on 09.12.12 at 10:54 am

Quoting average DOM is misleading, since the DOM distribution has a huge tail. Some houses that just never sell because the seller was never serious. Median DOM is much more meaningful.

I wish I had data to evaluate how significant the “delist and relist” manipulation of DOM is, though. I suspect that once you measure median DOM, it’s probably not too significant … but I’m certainly not sure…

#90 IM in C on 09.12.12 at 10:59 am

Rob now in Nova Scotia

Boomers can keep their houses on the market a very long time and not budge on their prices. A vacated house that is all paid for would cost no more than $10k per year – cash outlay- to carry. So, if they are looking at a $50k + drop in what they think the property is worth, to leave it sit there for a while in hopes that the market would rebound would make sense to some (probably not to Garth!) to take the gamble.

#91 TimV on 09.12.12 at 11:00 am

Just FYI, with regards to the East York data I posted yesterday, here is what happens if I convert to average rather than median DOM.

All houses, median DOM: 7 / 7 / 8 / 10 / 13 (for April through August)
All houses, average DOM: 12.7 / 10.8 / 11.0 / 17.8 / 18.3 (for April through August)

I exclude certain listings that I can’t parse or that look like they are commercial buildings, etc. This probably has no effect on median, but again, it could be affecting the average calculation. Median is the right metric, I believe.

#92 disciple on 09.12.12 at 11:10 am

Current President of Israel Shimon Peres is Rupert Murdoch. See if you recognize the past Presidents… your homework for today… school’s in, isn’t it?

#93 stage1dave on 09.12.12 at 11:14 am

Apparently, our inflated housing market is now attracting some “mainstream” attention south of the border…

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/09/11/canadas-housing-bubble-set-to-burst/

This fellow was onto what he labelled “Bush’s Chernobyl Economy” about two years before THEIR bubble burst. There might even be a couple of quotes from our gracious host in here somewhere…

#94 robert on 09.12.12 at 11:26 am

Things are getting ugly in Canada and its not just Real Estate. The all mighty Automobile Business is back with its offers of $14,000 off or 0% loans over 84 months. Yes auto sales always do well when the general public say to themselves well if we cannot afford a house we can at least enjoy a new car or truck.
Our entire economy is built on a mountain of debt and we are close to hitting the wall. Walk through a mall lately? Just ask some of the smaller retailers about business. I suspect that this winter will shed much light on the health of the Canadian economy.
It looks as though we are only in the beginning stage of the unwind of real estate prices. This theory that no one would sell their house at a 40% discount is just flawed. The time is coming that house owners will be scrambling just to get out from underneath their mortgages and as posted earlier a house owner who absorbed a 25k personal loan just to relieve himself of a recourse mortgage. We saw it in the 80’s and we will see it again.
Can all not see that the Banks see it coming and that is why they are now treating homes as a tier three level of collateral. Thats right your house is worth 400k but the appraised value is 350k and now the banks are telling you that your LTVR is $227,500. Hmmm sounds like 56% LTVR. The unraveling will not be caused by a reduction of amortizations it will be caused by the appraisal process which is already becoming a huge hurdle to the sales process.

#95 luke8929 on 09.12.12 at 11:27 am

Quilchena in Vancouver

They did list close to $2 million but on the 3rd price drop a low ball came in and she took it. Must be shocking.

It would be interesting to know if this is knocked down, builder, comes back on the market in a month or two, reno/flipper or its someone actually going to live there. Either of the first two and it doesn’t sell again for above the last selling price or assessed value in the case of a new build and the correction is really here.

#96 **The Original** CalgaryRocks on 09.12.12 at 11:43 am

#75 Calgary Rocks on 09.12.12 at 9:26 am

What there are 2 people calling themselves Calgary Rocks posting here now? Crazy but true.

I’m not in love with this nickname anymore. It was originally chosen as a counterpoint to calgary_rip_off who felt that houses in YYC were a rip-off. Unfortunately he doesn’t post here anymore since (I believe) he finally bought a house. LOL.

#97 Derek R on 09.12.12 at 12:10 pm

#96 **The Original** CalgaryRocks on 09.12.12 at 11:43 am wrote:
What there are 2 people calling themselves Calgary Rocks posting here now? Crazy but true.

Yep, that’s happened to a few of us, including me at one point. Not much you can do about it except pick another name and hope that the copycats don’t trash your reputation too much (like they tried to do to Junius at one time).

Now if our host were to ask his IT Amazons to implement a password-protected login system for commenters like some other websites do that would fix it.

#98 Hoof - Hearted on 09.12.12 at 12:14 pm

#40 Patiently waiting on 09.12.12 at 12:32 am

My parents were middle class, and also bought properties in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. (Richmond BC) The last one they bought paid $30,000.

Back then, if you could get the down payment, most of the rent could cover the mortgage.

Once in early , many other simply leveraged the equity and kept on buying, you get some average Joes and Janes that owned 10 properties.

However by the 1980’s , the house prices had risen to the point that the rent could not cover the payments. That’s 30+years ago.

People do not want to play landlord on an investment that has a bleak future. Funny how many simply want to rent and not even own their own home.

#99 prairieperson on 09.12.12 at 12:28 pm

dont-wait-too-long-to-get-into-gta-condo-market

Today’s FP.

#100 Pr on 09.12.12 at 12:32 pm

And homebuilders from BC to Ontario have already started lobbying the feds to roll back the change…

Watt about lobbying before, when the fed introduce the 0$ cash 40 years hypotheque. Ah no! You were making money, so shhh, not a word. Hypocrites.

#101 Kevin on 09.12.12 at 12:34 pm

“Actually I did not say owners would need to automatically requalify. That is always at the lender’s discretion.” – Garth

No, you said it would be regulation, with no option for lenders to exercise any discretion. Here’s exactly what you said:

“The changes would require far more scrutiny of a buyer’s finances, verification of a home’s true value (not the bidding-war price), elimination of cash-back mortgages and also test borrowers every time they renew a loan to ensure they still qualify.

“It’s not just that the bank cop would bring in such a draconian change (and it will), […]” – Garth Turner, “Wipe Out,” May 13th, 2012

Garth, I’m not trying to be a jerk, and nobody likes to hear “I told you so,” but in this case, I actually did. In comment #141 of that same blog post, I clearly said that this regulation was “Never gonna happen.” The vast majority of what you post is true and accurate, and I’m not saying you’re not allowed to ever be wrong. I’m just saying that when you are wrong, at least man up and admit it.

Wait and see how the banks implement the new OSFI regime. — Garth

#102 Old Man on 09.12.12 at 12:48 pm

Well have one small dog that is a volume leader today which was a speculative buy with very modest capital, and took the convertible debenture instead of stock. It looked so good a couple of years ago, so rolled the dice on it and came up craps. Win many, but lose a few is what the market is all about, so the taxman better get ready for another tax write – off.

#103 Penny Henny on 09.12.12 at 1:00 pm

“Of the 15,000 condos built every year, about a third of those become rental properties,” says Hildebrand. “But there’s 10,000 new households entering the rental market every year.”

http://www.openfile.ca/toronto/story/there-any-relief-ahead-torontos-crowded-rental-market

supply and demand.
there is much demand.
Stay strong TO

#104 Steven Rowlandson on 09.12.12 at 1:02 pm

I don’t think lending rules matter one bit if wage rates are piss poor, hours variable and real estate extremely over priced. Except for the odd town house or yuppie palace home construction around Barrie, Ontario has dropped off a cliff just like Wile E. Coyote when chasing the road runner. It is a long way downnnnn!

#105 ozy - my idea RE: GTA on 09.12.12 at 1:28 pm

Afterall, do not see the pace of price stabilizing in GTA
Makes me realize short-term prices will still go up a little. Then a price increase in March/April. Then a speculation in May/June and then the C-R-A-S-H !!!

Make sense?

#106 truth hammer on 09.12.12 at 1:29 pm

Good luck to your OK pilot in asking 2 million for a property in an area with three years supply of listings and single digit percentage sales……..and those sales have only been tagged to the continued downward spiral of listings prices asked.

It ms to have become appraent to some vendors that after 18 months on the market that their listing may be overvalued and a price reduction is in order.

What has kept OK prices so sticky? Is it because a great many of these spec homes ‘on the lake’ are second homes owned by outsiders primarily from Alta and Ont who have not felt the brunt of declining prices in their own areas yet……..is that why now the prices have started to decline…because the news in Ontario is getting through?

Could it be the massive support of the dope and criminal activity OK based has caused the market to go sideways? OK for whatever reason has more bikers and dopers in residence than any other community in Canada….evidenced in the value of vehicles and boats towed around by characters who sure didn’t make the money in the market by the looks of them.

Will a police crackdown bring the entire market crashing down…….is that why the RCMP have been so reluctant to bring any of the obvious influx and murders to any conclusion…has the county become dependant on crime?

Otherwise what supports the economy there? There are just so many pilots or fat cat civil servants gushing enough dough to go around…..OK is not a center for government……retiree’s are starting to lose their shirts on props elsewhere………an Arizona has effectively sucked the spec money away for the legitimate business people who see pbetter weather and lifestyle down south.

2 million in the OK……I thinks the pilot asks too much of the dope trade or the crazy idea that prices are so out of whack in the OK that a reduction of 75% might not be enough.

#107 The wrong Kim 'Un on 09.12.12 at 1:34 pm

My apologies to the original Cagary Rocks, won’t happen again. I didn’t know the name was taken. Nuff said.

#108 Terry on 09.12.12 at 1:58 pm

Hello there!.

#109 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 2:08 pm

At #62 Editor

I am not assuming that the sun shines through our ass in the GTA :-) and admit that the “it’s different here” outlook can be misleading.

But one thing that is fundamentally different is the number of people that come to the GTA every year, probably more than a 100,000. That plus the fact that Canada is perceived as a safe haven by much of the world, relative to the States and Europe. Hence the demand side of the equation.

Now again, if people lose their jobs wholesale, then yes it’s totally “game over” for the real estate market. But can one predict that either way?

#110 Old Man on 09.12.12 at 2:26 pm

Want to know what your home should be listed at, if you have no clue? It might be worth the expense, and the effect to have it independently appraised by an AACI before you even talk to a Real Estate agent for a potential listing; have done this on every home that I have ever sold in advance.

#111 Mark W on 09.12.12 at 2:40 pm

Yea, but I wanna see the figures for WINNIPEG … !!!

No real demographic growth.
No land shortage.
Price increases of about 250% within the last decade.

The true canary in the coal mine in Canadian real estate simply because the excuses used elsewhere in the country do not apply to this city for WHY real estate has gone off the charts.

#112 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 2:47 pm

Perfect storm for 416 Sfh to keep going up. My son and his miss are appt hunting.

Guess what. Bidding Wars for rental property.
Rents are going up fast

Dollar going up means overnight rate will not go up anytime soon. Owners win dwellers lose.

#113 rtr on 09.12.12 at 3:33 pm

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/12/mpac-retreat-blasted-as-waste-of-taxpayers-dollars

MPAC retreat shame on them for wasting public money.

#114 Old Man on 09.12.12 at 3:37 pm

Garth did you see the comments about Canada by MISH on September 11th? This does not look good, and this could all come together with economic factors like a bunch of month old roses given to your worst babe. I say a nightmare might be forming to make this a huge real estate crash like we have never seen before in the history of Canada; maybe yes, or maybe no, as only time will tell.

#115 house burden on 09.12.12 at 3:40 pm

#81 Daisy Mae on 09.12.12 at 9:58 am

#17Chaddywack on 09.11.12 at 10:56 pm
Any chance the feds will renege on the 25 year amortization?
The feds have realized their mistake and they won’t make it again. Their plan clearly backfired.
================================

Was it a mistake?

The head of canada was in bed with his goldman sac buddies.

1. The banks are making record profits.
2. The can leverage 1 dollar into 100 or even a 1000.
3. The got the tight wad savers to refinance and max out on debt.
4. They have successfully enslaved a whole country in debt.

5. Including USA, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland. soon Australia and Canada.

When the mistake is made in one country it was a mistake. But when its world wide and deepening then its a conspiracy!!!!

#116 45north on 09.12.12 at 4:02 pm

Robert: Our entire economy is built on a mountain of debt and we are close to hitting the wall. The Banks see it coming

who could see better?

I have said here before, the banks have their ducks in a row. No MERS, no robo signing. Mortgages duly registered, case law in place.

Mark Hanson says that half of all Americans with mortgages are effectively underwater. That means that even if their house is worth more than the mortgage they still cannot pay the transfer costs and put money down on a new house.

you know, I think that the banks see it here, they just are not making an announcement

[email protected]

#117 Frank le Skank on 09.12.12 at 4:02 pm

#109 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 2:08 pm
I use to have a link to the immigration statistics for Toronto but I seem to have lost it. The increase in the number of immigrants per year is not big enough to justify the RE increases in the last decade. Most immigrants are family members of people who are here, and they aren’t brining in $500,000 to buy a house.

#118 Hoof - Hearted on 09.12.12 at 4:33 pm

Just got a flyer form some well known Richmond realtors.

” 170 Homes SOLD In 2011″

(Ouch…that was 9 months ago ?)

#119 David on 09.12.12 at 4:34 pm

It would be nice to dream of happy endings from this bubble, but it is not going to happen.
Asked a friend from Northern Ireland a few weeks back if he wanted to buy a cheap ghost estate for his retirement years. After all the expletives, the answer was NO.
One can expect the same answer from Canadians very soon once the tsunami wave hits our shores.
There is no reason to expect a different outcome because of the Its Different Here Factor.
Renting is no trip to Nirvana, but neither is owning an overpriced McMansion or Condo.
None of this is about schadenfrude, millions of people got took by the lies of a fast buck industry and a wilfully blind government.

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/michael-laxer/nightmare-main-st-cmhc-and-canadian-housing-bubble

#120 fleetwoodby on 09.12.12 at 4:50 pm

Just wanted to share my cautionary tale and experience.

I moved to Surrey BC about two years ago,having sold my UK house (just after the peak!). Was always going to rent first and then started looking at houses to buy last October.

First stop was to get mortgage approval…$600k was cleared for me and my significant other. That was the first thing to blow my mind. My top UK mortgage was around $500k and I have the same job.

Ok, repayments, were around $2300 per month on a mortgage of about $500k, but don’t know if it was my UK background or just cautious nature, but I calculated that a couple of percentage points would soon knock these up to almost $3k per month.

The guy at the bank was really helpful but I spent a long time trying to get my ahead around what proportion of income people were spending on housing in Canada….I was assured that it was pretty normal for it to be up in the 50% to 60% range….”that’s the price!”

Although still wary, I started the house search with some reccomended realtors. Great guys but could never really settle my nerves – it was always “it’s Surrey, 1500 new immigrants each month, and do you know it’s going to be bigger than Vancouver in 10 years time?”

Found an awesome house on my dream street – $590k. Offered $570k, got a counter offer at $575k. Signed the paperwork…..slept on it…..but I never sent it back.

That was a close escape. Then I really started digging into the market, found this site and others, and now I’m hoping that prices will adjust.

Thinking back to UK multipliers, my top price at 3x joint income should be around $450k. If I can get the $570k house for $450k, I wil be relatively happy.

The house I was going to buy didn’t sell(although there was apparently another interested party!). It was taken on by another realtor in January, listed for $610k, and sold within 2 weeks.

Saw some boxes being moved in one weekend, but the house has been empty since. Grass is cut, flowers look nice and flyers are removed. Buyers are overseas neighbours tell me.

I walk past the house every day, looking longingly at it!! My worse nightmare will be if it comes back on soon at $500k? Could it go lower???

Interestingly the area where I live, single fam homes are still shifting pretty quick for around $600k, although most recent listing at $650k has stuck around all summer.

Lots of townhome construction still happening; 2 blocks away around 220 houses are being built on two developments on either side of the street. Will be interesting to see pricing (usually around $350k for about 1,500 sq ft) – one development is almost ready for show.

Really appreciate all the advice on this blog – still really house horny but I’m not getting sucked in.

#121 daystar on 09.12.12 at 5:13 pm

#45 Blacksheep on 09.12.12 at 1:15 am

I appreciate your response, I just don’t have the time today to respond back. Cheers

#122 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 5:22 pm

Love how the narrative is changing right in front of our eyes.

The attack on american ambassador is now terrorist coordinated attack, nothing to do with the hate film.

In other words the guy an Isrealie american who made the movie, who called all Mohammad types cancer is absolved.

I would say that that film insights the same feelings to Mohammad’s as it would to Jews if someone painted a swastika on a synagogue.

So now Israel is absolved. The west is absolved, the movie is absolved ,it’s creator and money backers are absolved, now it was just a murder on 911 by terrorist.

Man the machine moves fast.

Why is this relevant to real estate.

If the machine scenes a real, real estate meltdown the machine will do a 180 this fast.

Wow MSM coordinated lightning fast with the politically correct talking points.

Personally as an avid atheist, I would love to see new Olympic sport, we put all the extremists from all religions in a stadium, give them bats, and let em go to town. while we watch, eat popcorn and cheer as we watch true root of evil in this world eliminate each other.

#123 truth hammer on 09.12.12 at 5:26 pm

#3 Cass….GM is not talking about the dollar…they are talking about bring CAW wages and benefits into line with UAW wages and benefits. Any company can hedge themselves against the vagaries of currency fluctuation….the problem in Canada is that systemic failure on behalf of corrupt unions to understand that Canadian wages are nor competative in a global economy. If anyone doesn’t like globalization then talk to the Liberal Party who enshrined sustainable development into the Canadian economic landscape. It was Trudeau and his kind who started the trend to ship Canadian jobs to less developed countries.

Auto workers will have to understand that they are workers not princes and that they don’t deserve nessescarily to have a heated pool in every back yard. These workers have rudimentary educations..they take zero risk…the make no decisions…and create zero capital…..they don’t deserve to be paid as if they did. This is why unions are bad for Canada.

#124 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 5:52 pm

#117 Frank le Skank

Frank, if you actually had access to immigration data that certainly beats popular conjecture.

My question though is that when people say that Real Estate is ridiculously overpriced in the GTA, have they ever seen prices of houses or condos in London, Chicago, Paris, Munich, Mumbai, Singapore, Rome etc etc?

One thing I can tell you that I have been to lots of cities and I have yet to find a major metropolitan city where the house price is 4.5 times the average family income (he theory of the earning multiple)? In some places I can assure you the multiple would be something like 25 times etc.

My comments above aren’t intended to be sarcastic, rather I am genuinely asking what is the reasoning behind this thinking…………because honestly I have never seen it anywhere.

Ofcourse, if people can’t make their mortgage payments like what happened south of the border, that’s an entirely different kettle of fish and I agree that it will cause the market to crash big time. But that’s a different line of argument from stating that house prices must crash because houses are “unaffordable”?
Where in any MAJOR metropolitan area in the world are they affordable for the average guy?……..you tell me?

#125 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 6:14 pm

#90 IM in C on 09.12.12 at 10:59 am

This is what I also feel.

In fact I think the Boomer might take a $50K cut on his/her $500K+ house, but people here seem to think they will take a $200 – $250K cut…………

Let’s put it this way, on a multiple choice question ‘What is the Moon Made of”……..Would you select the answer that read “Blue Cheese”?

Seriously?……..

#126 Dividend Yield Investor on 09.12.12 at 6:35 pm

Here is the formula for estimating future returns for common stocks.

Historically, the dividend yield on stocks has averaged about 4%, and has fluctuated both above and below this 4% figure. As a result, the historical average return on stocks has typically been 6% + 4% = 10%. That’s precisely where that 10% “historical return” on stocks comes from.

Mathematically, the total return on stocks over any future time horizon can be estimated using the following equation.

Annualized future total return =
(1+g)(Original Yield/Terminal Yield)1/N – 1 + (Original + Terminal)/2

g = growth of dividends….Original Yield = Beginning dividend yield….Terminal Yield = Ending Yield….N = Number of years.

The U.S. Standard & Poors dividend yield is around 1.90% using a growth rate of dividends at 5.4% with the ending yield of 4% at the end of 10 years your return is around 1%.

How cool is that! Great for financial planning!

Dividend Man
Atlanta Ga

Hussman’s Funds Estimating future returns
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/longterm.htm

#127 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.12.12 at 6:46 pm


Quote of the Day from The Daily Reckoning…

“The gold standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift governments.” — Ludwig von Mises, from Economic Policy.

Something to do with Basel III, the US Fed and possibly China and Russia mixed in. QE3? Not right away. This world needs group therapy!
*
#70 Smoking Man — “Anyone head my advice to go long oil last week?” — Yes thank you, and it will play out very nicely for us!

#122 Smoking Man — Bingo! As long as the blame can be passed to someone else, then it’s not our fault.
*
Bullied Bus Driver Remember her? Surprise German court backs bankers; Xmas debt It’s not worth it. We go out for Xmas Eve brunch, as it’s cheaper; Profiting the rich Pay day groans (loans); Advertising Was Mark Carney’s job ever advertised? Lloyds Sell or be sacked; 1:23 clip MF whistleblower comes clean; Charity Telemarketing company takes nice chunk of donations.
*
dubya vs. Obomba Obomba wins. Helps when Soros and TPTB are funding all sides in wars; Obomba At least he has hypocritical standards. But Saving The Economy is his top priority; Iran – Egypt The only circle of evil that exists is the US, UN, NATO, Israel and the west. TROTW gets along quite nicely by itself; Ten. min. clip US F16 shot Flight 93 down; Take Out Nature in all its glory; Cleaners Could be more hygenic; Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous Bond boats; Slogan Names These probably came from someone with an ax to bear; GM stuff now contains an Agent Orange ingredient.

#128 TRT on 09.12.12 at 6:51 pm

Fellow posters on this blog…read if you use an iphone:

New iphone 5 release date is Sept 21. New iOS (operating system) release date is Sept 19.

So now all those who own a 3GS, 4, or 4S will be happy because they will update the software…because the Iphone 5 is not a big advance. DONT UPDATE TO NEW SOFTWARE!

Why?

1) Because your existing phone will become so slow due to extra demands that you’ll wish you never updated (forces you to buy a new one because you can’t downgrade operating systems).

2) Good luck getting it unlocked if you update. Carriers love this…especially if you travel out of country a lot.

#129 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 7:01 pm

#124 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 5:52 pm

Where in any MAJOR metropolitan area in the world are they affordable for the average guy?……..you tell me?

Exactly.

But the Great Gartho, to recent memory has not been bearish in the 416 SFH he has not. I have been waiting so I can pounce on him.

Now Vancouver that’s a different story.

#130 Hoof - Hearted on 09.12.12 at 7:19 pm

#122 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 5:22 pm

Obvious you never heard of the term False Flag which that whole incident reeks of. ….perhaps look up USS Liberty, King David Hotel attack and 9/11 etc..

Oh yeah even as an avid atheist , pray that we don’t send our Canadian troops into what could become the Mother of all Wars

#131 tkid on 09.12.12 at 7:23 pm

Hawk, no bank anywhere is going to loan out 25x what someone earns gross in a year. For a start off, the monthly payments would be more than the net paycheque.

The areas where homes sell for 25x the salary – the salary is average. And the vast majority of avg salary earners will rent. That leaves the rich as homeowners, or in London, leaseowners.

Leaseowners – where someone agrees to rent a home and land for 100 years and will give it back after 100 years.

#132 Smoking Man on 09.12.12 at 7:30 pm

Damage control and the art of fibbing.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/muhammad-film-consultant-sam-bacile-is-not-israeli-and-not-a-real-name/262290/

Amateurish at best. But still effective. this spin will be reality in a few days.

THE MACHINE nice

#133 tkid on 09.12.12 at 7:32 pm

Yes, SmokingMan, rents in Toronto are insane. My landlady, having come to the realization that no one will pay $300,000 for 400 sq feet plus a parking space, has put this unit up for rent. Rent will go from $1250 to $1360. The place isn’t worth $1000.

The rents will keep this up just as long as there is demand. But exports fell sharply this month and will continue to do so unless Flaherty can get the Cdn buck’s value halved. Jobs will continue to be lost, and when it all reaches critical mass both home sale prices and rent prices will plummet.

But in the meanwhile I’ve stopped answering the phone when the landlady’s real estate agent phones me up. “Can you not be at home when we have people come through?”

It’s all I can do just to restrain myself from telling the broad that I will absolutely be sitting on the couch wearing nothing but soiled underwear while onions and fish are frying on the stovetop when her clients come through.

#134 Tony on 09.12.12 at 7:51 pm

Re: #120 fleetwoodby on 09.12.12 at 4:50 pm

The rule of thumb when buying real estate or a house is never pay more than one hundred times the monthly rent of the said house you’re going to purchase.

#135 jess on 09.12.12 at 8:08 pm

The dynamic is fed, Carter said, by an income tax code that exacerbates the gap between the wealthiest Americans and the rest of the electorate, allowing the rich even greater influence over public discourse and electioneering.

The 39th president lamented a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that allows unlimited contributions to third-party groups that don’t have to disclose their donors.

‘You know how much I raised to run against Gerald Ford? Zero.’

He added that he hopes the “Supreme Court will reverse that stupid ruling,” referring to the case known as Citizens United.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/09/12/jimmy-carter-us-elections-money.html

#136 Observer on 09.12.12 at 8:22 pm

Homebuilders should desire a long term sustainable market that comes from sound lending practices and fundamental pricing. Not the crack cocaine high of easy money that has driven up the price of shelter all across Canada and made it almost impossible for young families to afford to live in the major centres.

#137 Daisy Mae on 09.12.12 at 8:30 pm

#94 Robert: “Walk through a mall lately? Just ask some of the smaller retailers about business. I suspect that this winter will shed much light on the health of the Canadian economy.”

************************

Christmas shopping season will be interesting. I suppose everyone will apply for department store credit cards so that they can continue to chaaaarge! *sigh*

#138 Daisy Mae on 09.12.12 at 8:43 pm

#101 Kevin: “Actually I did not say owners would need to automatically requalify. That is always at the lender’s discretion.” – Garth

No, you said it would be regulation, with no option for lenders to exercise any discretion. Here’s exactly what you said:

“The changes would require far more scrutiny of a buyer’s finances, verification of a home’s true value (not the bidding-war price), elimination of cash-back mortgages and also test borrowers every time they renew a loan to ensure they still qualify.”

*******************

When you renew you are entering into a totally new agreement. So when Garth says the banks ‘will test borrowers every time…’ that is correct, isn’t it? You have to re-qualify. No mention of ‘regulations’ — it’s at the banks discretion.

#139 Editor on 09.12.12 at 8:43 pm

” but it’s keeping a lot of retirees afloat. It’s the basis of most people’s savings.”


How would houses that are ostensibly worth X dollars keep anyone afloat? It’s all theoretical until it’s sold. Theoretical equity does not pay retirement expenses. Retirement savings are money in the bank to pay the bills. You have to cash in the house to get the money.

#140 Jenna on 09.12.12 at 8:44 pm

Anything nice in this city sells within 24 hours. What’s left on Mls is overpriced crap. City place waterfront might drop in prices and homes in Vaughn but don’t expect more than that. I’m not an agent I am someone trying to buy a house and seeing no signs of a cooling market.

#141 Editor on 09.12.12 at 8:44 pm

…but it’s keeping a lot of retirees afloat. It’s the basis of most people’s savings…

How would houses that are ostensibly worth X dollars keep anyone afloat? It’s all theoretical until it’s sold. Theoretical equity does not pay retirement expenses. Retirement savings are money in the bank to pay the bills. You have to cash in the house to get the money.

#142 cynically on 09.12.12 at 8:51 pm

#1 Turner Nation: True, Iran is a small country in area, especially compared to Canada, but it is in the top 20 in world population, with far more than double Canada’s and as the root of the Persian culture and with its present grim political posturing, I would say far more important than Canada. One could draw the conclusion: Iran – very small country, extreme relevance; Canada – very large country, little relevance.

#143 Daisy Mae on 09.12.12 at 8:54 pm

#115 House Burden: “Was it a mistake?
The head of canada was in bed with his goldman sac buddies.
1. The banks are making record profits.
2. The can leverage 1 dollar into 100 or even a 1000.
3. The got the tight wad savers to refinance and max out on debt.
4. They have successfully enslaved a whole country in debt.

5. Including USA, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland. soon Australia and Canada.

When the mistake is made in one country it was a mistake. But when its world wide and deepening then its a conspiracy!!!!

***************************

Whatever it was….it backfired.

#144 Margaret on 09.12.12 at 9:25 pm

Its a find how many children pic, isn’t it?

#145 Weener on 09.12.12 at 9:26 pm

Umm, yeah Tony. So if a place rents for 2k you shouldn’t pay 200k for it? Whatever…

#146 Margaret on 09.12.12 at 9:26 pm

@ Tony

Cant be right, we pay 2600 a month for a home they want to sell for 900K

#147 Ron in BC on 09.12.12 at 9:28 pm

One million over asking. Looks like there are still bidding wars in West Vancouver. There are people with big bucks and if they see what they like they just go and buy!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/commercial-real-estate/West+Vancouver+teardown+fetches+over+asking/7174412/story.html

#148 Randman on 09.12.12 at 10:12 pm

“Anything nice in this city sells within 24 hours. What’s left on Mls is overpriced crap. City place waterfront might drop in prices and homes in Vaughn but don’t expect more than that. I’m not an agent I am someone trying to buy a house and seeing no signs of a cooling market.”

Sighhhh….you come here to a blog that is warning people about buying real estate …plenty of evidence
and stats …and you tell us you are trying to but a house?

Are you not listening? Are you needing some sort of
reinforcement therapy? Do you not read? Can you
not comprehend the message here?

Go ahead and buy…we just don’t need to read about your stupidity…

R

#149 Randman on 09.12.12 at 10:38 pm

Mish on Canada’s housing bubble..

“Canada Housing Bubble

100% without a doubt, Canada is in the midst of an immense housing bubble. The Canadian bubble outlasted bubbles in China and Australia. Because it did, I get taunts from Canadian readers all the time.

I received one just yesterday. It went something like this “So Mish, where’s your Canada Housing Collapse?”

The answer, as always is “I don’t know”. That said, bubbles pop by definition. Moreover, the longer the bubble lasts, the bigger the implosion.

Australia is in the midst of a big property bubble collapse, a big retail collapse, and a big export mining collapse all at the same time.

Canada will follow suit at some point and given taunts out of the blue, now is as good a time as any.

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/09/canadian-exports-collapse-expect-plunge.html#Imgar0Axb31y9qXt.99

#150 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 10:41 pm

#147 Ron in BC

That’s the whole theory of the “greater fool” put in practice. Overpay by $1 million and hold out for someone that will overpay your asking price by yet another $1 million.

#151 Hawk on 09.12.12 at 10:42 pm

#133 tkid on 09.12.12 at 7:32 pm

Are you really gonna screw over your landlady for wanting a higher rent? Why not just move to another place that’s cheaper (and there are many places that are cheaper).

#152 Soylent Green is People on 09.13.12 at 1:33 am

Occupy failed because they were beaten and forced to leave bythe goons who work for the 1% aka as the cops
.
.
.
.

#153 disciple on 09.13.12 at 12:03 pm

Occupy was fake to begin with, sponsored by Soros and Rockefeller. Actor-based reality. There’s no excuse for ignorance on this matter.

#154 luke8929 on 09.13.12 at 12:11 pm

The high end of the RE market isn’t going down just yet, Stolen HAM, capital flight out of Europe and Central Banks increasing the debt supply all mean lots of excess dollars looking for a home some of which will go into hi end RE in Canada. There is a reason the RE folks came up with the HP index, the top end homes which are selling for high prices can hold up the HPI and the RE cartel can continue to make it look ok. China is the biggest player for Western Canada IMHO and it appears to be falling apart slowly in Asia and the rats are still fleeing with their stolen ponzi loot to purchase RE.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/

The mid to low end is another matter. Specifically employment which is tied to the economy and commodity prices ie mining, forestry, oil patch jobs will be the deciding fator on how fast and how far prices drop. Latest news for the Cdn economy isn’t that great.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/09/canadian-exports-collapse-expect-plunge.html

Long slow grind to the bottom.