Fleurs du mal

For as long as I’ve had hormones, I’ve bought Dorothy flowers from the same busy place. Yesterday I showed up to an empty storefront and a move notice. Twenty minutes later I found the small business operating out of the corner of an old building behind an auto body shop, beside a vacant lot.

What happened, I asked?

Turns out it’s been one bitch of a year, and a summer of drought. “It’s tough hanging on,” Jeremy said, as he wrapped my mulleins and sunflowers, “and who would have thought so in this neighborhood?”

Indeed. Three hundred feet away, across the road from the industrial land, teardown bungalows now fetch $850,000 on thirty-foot lots, and the average two-storey house tradels for $1.4 million. Houses sell in an average of 18 days, almost always with multiple offers, and usually to young families desperate to move into the catchment area for coveted schools. In a block where there are 40 properties jammed in, there’s $35 million in equity and debt. But, apparently, not much money.

“Those houses have sucked everybody dry,” Jeremy added, handing over the bouquet I badly needed to exchange for marital points, “Discretionary spending? That’s me, and I’m hurting.”

Of course. Nobody needs flowers. But everybody needs an Aga stove or something stylish from Ginger’s to pee in. Let’s get our priorities straight.

That debt has replaced money as the national medium of exchange should be self-evident. The implications are dramatic when the one big thing we’ve all overreached for starts to wobble. So it’s not happy news, for example, when condo sales in Toronto crash by more than a third in a single month, as just happened. First-time buyers are being booted out of the market as I predicted they would be months ago. The ripples of the condo collapse will eventually be felt everywhere.

This week I chronicled for you the real estate crumble now underway in Vancouver and the sales stumbles which are plaguing the Toronto market. But this is a national phenomenon. For example on Friday in all of Nova Scotia 55 houses sold, while 55 others had their prices reduced and 91 new listings materialized. In Victoria, rare signature mansions that would have been snapped at over $3 million in 2010 now crowd the market at a third less, and stay unsold.

In Ottawa, realtors are shocked that a market they’d told everyone was bullet-proof is now wounded. Resales last month toppled 14% while new home action is down more than 20%. August produced the first major month-over-month decline in years, and the scramble is on to blame the dive on temporary issues. Heading the list is the fear of big job losses as the federal government trims its workforce – but only 5,000 positions are expected to be lost in a workforce of 145,000. Also getting blamed is the weather. Too hot. And come February, it’ll be too damn cold.

In reality,  Ottawa’s been infected by the same economic malaise that’s leveled my favourite florist guy. Families are overextended, and household debt’s turned excessive. A Canadian Payroll Association report on Friday found that 47% of people would be in serious financial poop if they missed a single paycheque. As I mentioned yesterday, everyone’s saving and investing less at the same time they own more. Real estate wealth’s replaced financial assets. But unlike a portfolio of preferreds or ETFs, a house usually comes with extreme debt and the propensity to turn illiquid.

Also this week we learned that 38% of Canadians think they’ll need between $1 million and $2 million in liquid assets to retire. How many people are currently in that position? Just 1%. So where do folks expect they’ll get that kind of money? Yup. Their houses. The same assets which are now, for many, diminishing their daily lives, and about to torpedo their finances. The self-delusion is endless.

Anyway, I’m done for the week. This blog is getting boring and pedantic, hectoring and whiny.

The flowers sure worked, though.

223 comments ↓

#1 Alex on 09.07.12 at 8:50 pm

First? Who knows…

#2 Gillian Jiggs on 09.07.12 at 8:55 pm

glad to hear it!
(um, about the flowers)

#3 Smoking Man on 09.07.12 at 8:55 pm

Enjoy the holiday great bearded one

#4 Mark W on 09.07.12 at 8:57 pm

How many houses sold in Winnipeg?

#5 City that smells like it sounds on 09.07.12 at 8:58 pm

secuunnnnnnnnnnnd!~!!!

#6 Charles Ponzi on 09.07.12 at 9:00 pm

Real estate is dying. Quick, buy some flowers for the funeral.

#7 TurnerNation on 09.07.12 at 9:12 pm

If the house is a rockin’ don’t bother knockin’!

#8 Jsan on 09.07.12 at 9:12 pm

The Canadian housing market is clearly a self inflicted wound. What in the world were our leaders thinking when they purposely inflated this housing bubble? There is not one shred of doubt in my mind that this was an engineered housing bubble. If I’m wrong and it wasn’t, than what in the world were they thinking? And for anyone who jumped in with both feet paying outlandishly overpriced amounts for pathetically little in return while at the same time watching only miles away the US housing collapse and it’s carnage to those who bought at the top, WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?

I really don’t get it?

#9 ZRH2YVR on 09.07.12 at 9:14 pm

Conditions needed for solid real estate sales are a constant temperature of 19 celcius, overcast skies, no hockey being played, small income gains, little to no bad news and banks which are backed by CMHC with unlimited ability to fund mortgages, securitize loans and transfer risk to the government in an environment of decreasing interest rates.

Seems like a couple of these are no longer possible . . .

#10 pathcontrolmonk on 09.07.12 at 9:23 pm

“This blog is getting boring and pedantic, hectoring and whiny.”

I agree, now that your predictions are coming true in real time I feel less compelled to read as my feelings of consternation are gradually replaced with schadenfreude.

#11 Hoof - Hearted on 09.07.12 at 9:25 pm

777777nnntthhhhh

#12 doc on 09.07.12 at 9:30 pm

Good idea to take a break Garth. This blog is less fun lately. Pretty much like the country. There used to be lighter contributions from the left coast (Where is beach girl now when we need to shift the paradigm or warm the cockles?). The overtly delusional and cognitively impaired have a safe place to post and thereby you provide a helpful public service. The smug remain so. I fear I’ve become smug myself. I escaped Vancouver two years ago. Thank you. At least I didn’t follow all your financial suggestions. Pride I suppose. I would be richer if I had but I’m still shy from prior market experiences. I hate it when your right. Enjoy that – and the amazons of course.

#13 Boomer21 on 09.07.12 at 9:32 pm

Nice one with the flowers Garth, my late husband used to buy me flowers twice a month. He would keep a bucket in the car so they would stay fresh on the drive home, huge bouquets of glads, tulips, exotics. It’s always the little things that count the most.I miss that and I miss him. Keep it up, I am sure Dorthy deserves every one of them. Have a great holiday.

#14 Babblemaster on 09.07.12 at 9:35 pm

Garth states, “So it’s not happy news, for example, when condo sales in Toronto crash by more than a third in a single month, as just happened. First-time buyers are being booted out of the market as I predicted they would be months ago. The ripples of the condo collapse will eventually be felt everywhere.”

I disagree. What’s really sad is that it has got to this state in the first place. That prices are falling (drastically?), is just a natural consequence of current prices being at levels that are just not supported by any fundamentals.

What’s even sadder is that, to an extent, the innocent will have to help pay for this flagrant excess of greed and self delusion. When the dust settles down, there will have been a massive redistribution of wealth. Society (tax payers) will have to help shoulder the burden of those (greater fools) who participated in this insanity and lost. In the US, over 22 million families currently use food stamps.

Regardless, happiness and sadness aside, there is no way that these insane booms and busts can be avoided. They are they a natural consequence of human nature being what it is.

#15 GTA man on 09.07.12 at 9:40 pm

Garth I remember some weeks ago to the delight of many readers you said that you were no longer going to tolerate these “first” losers.
That seems to have been thrown out the window. What gives?

#16 45north on 09.07.12 at 9:47 pm

Autoroute Décaire, Montréal, south bound?

#17 Ex-Cowtown on 09.07.12 at 9:55 pm

OK GT, I’m looking at picking up some REITs. The one that you like seems to be Boardwalk Equities (BEI.UN on TMX) .

Now, Riddle me this:

I get the issue of people losing/abandoning their houses and forced to rent, so BEI looks like a lock. But what % of their increase in value, which has been impressive, is based on the cash flow from rent and what % is based on the increase in the value of the properties themselves?

It would only make sense that BEI has also been riding the wave of upward real estate prices as the value of their properties climbs, similar to condos. But now that the trend is reversing, will BEI be vulnerable to asset writedowns? That would drop the share price significantly. Or am I missing something?

#18 Saskatoon-Living on 09.07.12 at 9:57 pm

I guess for the time being, it IS different here.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Sask+adds+more+jobs+August/7208227/story.html

#19 OttawaMike on 09.07.12 at 10:04 pm

We just finished up a week on the mid-coast of the sparsely populated state of Maine.
The little coastal towns have undergone a renaissance with restored main streets full of galleries and fancy eateries. The side streets are lined with tidy restored century homes.
Glancing at the listings in the realtor office windows there is still evidence of a world of pain with many short sales and foreclosures, especially in the low end “poor people” homes.
Speaking to home owners near the water front, things are selling but it had better be priced low. Most things have dropped 30% from their high point in 08 and Maine is not exactly ground zero for the housing bubble but they sure are participating in the bust.

#20 Uki on 09.07.12 at 10:08 pm

Leave the “firsts” alone. This is free country, not like some other X….stan.

#21 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.07.12 at 10:13 pm

38% of Canadians think they’ll need between $1 million and $2 million in liquid assets to retire. How many people are currently in that position? Just 1%.

This sounds very ‘religious’ to me. Just like people picking their political party in the U.S., there is a deep belief that holds no matter what evidence is out there to the contrary. Sheeple have been told over and over that “they are richer than they think”, “mortgage debt is good debt” and “house values always go up”.

We need more “financial atheists”.

#22 Min in Mission on 09.07.12 at 10:21 pm

What?? Sunflowers for Dorothy! What did the Amazons get??? Savings Bonds??

#23 Joe on 09.07.12 at 10:25 pm

Hey, that’s the Van Horne overpass over Montreal’s Decarie highway section.

#24 Tim on 09.07.12 at 10:27 pm

One million to two million in assets? You should know better as a financial planner that people won’t need near that much. Many get by with the Canada pension and 300K or so. The financial svcs industry is leading suckers down a path telling them they’ll need outrageous sums of money to retire on. Not only do most of them have a poor track record of advising people in terms of securities and assets, but they inflate the numbers to get people to contribute more to RRSPs.

CPP and three hundred to finance 25 years? Good luck. — Garth

#25 Canadian Watchdog on 09.07.12 at 10:32 pm

About that RealNet chart exposing Vaughan.

With a higher Canadian dollar killing manufacturing jobs and a ramshackle real estate market; look whose employment share happens to be 29% concentrated in construction, real estate and manufacturing. Chart

Vaughan is way overexposed in these sectors that are highly vulnerable to a recession and housing downturn. This is one area to keep an eye on.

#26 dylan on 09.07.12 at 10:33 pm

hey, that’s montreal… but the sign doesn’t say that.

#27 ty on 09.07.12 at 10:34 pm

Garth,

Are you ready to admit that insane monetary stimulus by every major central bank is leading to increases in materials. How could you not see this. que2345678. da

#28 EIT on 09.07.12 at 10:36 pm

I’ve heard that the jobs being cut in Ottawa are for lower paying positions. I believe this group would be in trouble at an early stage in this housing market. Are we double counting? Slightly less downward pressure on that front?

#29 Soylent Green is People on 09.07.12 at 10:46 pm

Oh you buy her flowers…. ahhhhhhhhhh so sweet. That makes up for all the Amazon comments.

……………….

If Iran is indeed moving toward nuclear-weapons capability – this is still unknown to U.S. intelligence – that may be because it is “inspired to do so” by the U.S.-Israeli threats, regularly issued in explicit violation of the U.N. Charter.

http://www.alternet.org/world/noam-chomsky-why-america-and-israel-are-greatest-threats-peace?page=0%2C1

.

#30 TRT on 09.07.12 at 10:46 pm

#8 Jsan

“What were the leaders thinking?”

..They were making money.

#31 Devore on 09.07.12 at 10:48 pm

#17 Ex-Cowtown

REITs are valued highly because of the distributions they provide. Why would there be “asset writedowns”? Do REITs flip apartment buildings?

#32 Soylent Green is People on 09.07.12 at 10:58 pm

1984 in 2012 – The Assault on Reason

Notes for Remarks to Carleton University
– September 5, 2012
By Allan R. Gregg

“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities” – Voltaire

First up were those toilet counting, privacy violators at Stats Canada – ½ (not 6%, but 50%) of employees were warned that their jobs were at risk.

20% of the workforce at the Library and Archives of Canada were put on notice.

CBC was told that it could live with a 10% reduction in their budgetary allocation.

In what was described as the “lobotomization of the parks system” (G &M – May 21, 2012), 30% of the operating budget of Parks Canada was cut, eliminating 638 positions; 70% of whom would be scientists and social scientists.

The National Roundtable on the Environment, the First Nations Statistical Institute, the National Council on Welfare and the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science were, in Orwell’s parlance, “vaporized”; saving a grand total of $7.5 million.

The Experimental Lakes Area, a research station that produced critical evidence that helped stop acid rain 3 decades ago and has been responsible for some of our most groundbreaking research on water quality was to be shut down. Savings? $2 million. The northernmost lab in Eureka, Nunavut awaits the same fate.

The unit in charge of monitoring emissions from power plants, furnaces, boiler and other sources is to be abolished in order to save $600,000.

And against the advice of 625 fisheries scientists and four former federal Fisheries Ministers – saying it is scientifically impossible to do — regulatory oversight of the fisheries was limited to stock that are of “human value”.

To add insult to injury, these amendments was bundled in with 68 other laws into one Budget Bill, so that – using the power of majority government – no single item could be opposed or revoked.

On the other side of the ledger however, the Canada Revenue Agency received an $8 million increase in its budget so that it had more resources available to investigate the political activity of not-for-profit and charitable organizations.

http://allangregg.com/?p=80#more-80

.

#33 Derek R on 09.07.12 at 11:03 pm

#22 Min in Mission on 09.07.12 at 10:21 pm wrote

What?? Sunflowers for Dorothy! What did the Amazons get??? Savings Bonds??

Naah… The Amazons are just back from a skydiving holiday in Denmark. They don’t need anything else.

#34 truth hammer on 09.07.12 at 11:13 pm

Great news for Canadian resource investors today with China announcing that it is spending a new tranche of hundreds of billions on infrastructure projects in 16 cities……all massive transportation projects requirng met coal for steel, copper…moly….iron ore…etc etc . One of the first comapnies to wake up was TECK….up $2.80 on the day…….I suspect that as the news sinks in over the weekend that the resource sector will float all boats in the coming days and weeks……for those of us who have been buying across the trough knowing that the world was not ending and as such had no fear buying low….huzzah….more luxury living because we’re smart……and fleet of foot….not to mention devilshly handsome in black and green.

People who have been hidng in fixed income waiting for everything to be perfect have already missed the first 20% of the rise….boo hoo. Not understanding how the market works is your fault…not the markets.

Discretionary income Bwahahahahahahahahaha….hasn’t been any for years….this is well known on Mainstreet……seniors starving…kids showing up hungry at school….extra curricular enrollment down by 90% in things like hockey and ballet….particularily in Ontario and BC.

House poor these people have become Master Yoda…..debt slaves…mortgage goons….despearate and hungry…..shivering in the dark.

I often tell the story of the mailman I stood behind in a check out line at the S – Store….he had a weeks worth of family groceries rung through…..kid stuff…cereal…bon bons….cheap processed crap in abundance…he produced one credit card after another……five in total….all rejected until he had to walk out without his weeks worth of groceries……not a dime to his name……and couldn’t borrow a penny……to be a fly on the wall when he went home to honey boo boo with out the bon bons.

The ZIRP and the NIRP has been the most destrcutive fiscal policy any government in history has ever run….the ZIRP has raped the savings of seniors and assured a nightmare of desperation within a few short years as soon as the CRA has ripped away the last fleshy covers of the seniors lifetime of savings. There will be no inheritances to save the kids who are underwater and will be for life.

At least in Australia the government kept the rates at a level that would allow the savers some dignity…not so in Canada. There was also real estate speculation in OZ due to the low historic rates…but the government never lowered itself to genocide.

#35 Burnaby Renter on 09.07.12 at 11:31 pm

Yes the blog is getting a little boring and pedantic, but we love to hear the hectoring and whiny parts, and besides, you’re one of the only truthful and honest sources of info regarding the state of our economy. Enjoy your weekend.

#36 Ex-Cowtown on 09.07.12 at 11:32 pm

#31 Devore on 09.07.12 at 10:48 pm
#17 Ex-Cowtown

REITs are valued highly because of the distributions they provide. Why would there be “asset writedowns”? Do REITs flip apartment buildings?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Agreed, but like oil companies, a drop in price of oil forces a write-down (not write-off) in the value of the company, even though the oil is still in the ground.

I have a hard time believing that a large correction in RE values won’t affect the loans that a REIT secured to finance an apartment building.

Unless of course, apartment buildings are immune to bank calls.

#37 aaci-home dog on 09.07.12 at 11:32 pm

Wooo hooo…I hoped so and it is now verified by a poll…
I am in the 1% !
Do not need to join the ‘occupy’ movement…
Phew…
Have a good weekend !

#38 Mark W on 09.07.12 at 11:33 pm

The Housing Bubble bursts on a speculator. Parody using a clip with Hitler as the real estate investor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

#39 North Van Renter on 09.07.12 at 11:52 pm

Garth, what’s your prediction for what comes next, as people realize that their retirement savings are no longer what they were?

Working longer, resulting in a higher unemployment rate? What happened in the US?

#40 dd on 09.08.12 at 12:06 am

In Victoria, rare signature mansions that would have been snapped at over $3 million in 2010 now crowd the market at a third less, and stay unsold
—————————————————————
Large land tiles – 30 acres +:
2006 $40,000 acre
2012 $22,000 acre.

Down massive. Watch $ under million to fall next.

#41 Hoof - Hearted on 09.08.12 at 12:09 am

Anyway, I’m done for the week. This blog is getting boring and pedantic, hectoring and whiny.

The flowers sure worked, though.

======================================

Have a good weekend….(and if ever in doubt….keep fake flowers handy with spray can for scent).

Remember behind every successful man is shocked mother- in -law.

Thanks for all your good work….I am sure you have saved a lot of parties from di$a$ter. The others…well….no law against stupidity..yet.

#42 Charles Ponzi on 09.08.12 at 12:18 am

Tulip mania will strike again.

#43 EIT on 09.08.12 at 12:24 am

Hey Garth, if things get bad can we tax deductable mortgage payments?

#44 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.08.12 at 12:49 am


“That debt has replaced money as the national medium of exchange should be self-evident. The implications are dramatic when the one big thing we’ve all overreached for starts to wobble. So it’s not happy news, for example, when condo sales in Toronto crash by more than a third in a single month, as just happened. The ripples of the condo collapse will eventually be felt everywhere. So where do folks expect they’ll get that kind of money? Yup. Their houses. The same assets which are now, for many, diminishing their daily lives, and about to torpedo their finances.”

Hmmm. Does anyone not make the simple connection about today’s announcement from John Baird, and the death of the Cdn. economy?

It is not great news for taxpayers to find out that Canada is dying from a thousand cuts, and this is where PR and a majority govt. comes in.

Despite the fact that Iran has not invaded anyone for 200 or more years, Israel is the only country in the MEast loaded with (at last count) 400 nuke WMD, it stands to the CPC’s benefit to find a patsy (Iran) to shift blame and everyone’s attention to.

China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Venezuela will all be paying attention to this, and may indeed have formulated a response.

With Oromneyba being a tool of the elite, it appears the noise level in the world is about to have the volume turned up.

#29 Soylent Green is People — Great link and no, Iran isn’t making bombs. China, Russia, India and Pakistan have enough to leave the west eating dirt.
*
Industrial Inflation Taking off? Pensions Young not saving; Greeks cleaning toilets in Sweden for a paycheque; Jeff Immelt Not aware of him, but he seems quite powerful; Japan conundrum; Glaxo slashing pensions; Retirement Homes; China Spending US$150 bln. on infrastructure;

German Trifecta; Boomerville and strategic defaults; High Consumer Debt; Pay the Agent or else; Cdn. Friday links and more Cdn. stuff; Five Reasons not to buy a house right now; Scary Chart V; 2-for-1 Special Hungary tosses Monsanto and the IMF out; Full Reserve Banking revisited; Honduras Three privately run cities? 400K Jobs a Month Fat chance; Perfect Storm just getting started; Bad Sign; Fla. Pensions; Intel cuts forecast; US stocks good, but US in recession; The Hidden People; We’re Deluding Ourselves; Pablo Escobar What’s wrong with the global banking system.
*
1:50 clip 1980 NBC clip on contrails that can change weather (this year’s droughts and floods?); Bubonic or Black Plague returns to NAmerica; Paul Martin and David Cameron Both Mr. Dithers (twins); French Truffles Reminds me of The Cheese Shop sketch; Group Hug Time Lazin’ about in the sun; Mt. Fuji time bomb. That will spice things up; President Romney with love from Michael Moore. It seems TPTB have already chosen Romney; BBC and The Toilet It has been well known for several years now; Ladies Take a bow.

#45 wes coast on 09.08.12 at 12:56 am

So if the North American consumer is dead for a while is stock market growth going to come from companies with exposure to developing world consumers (which seems sustainable) or is it just money printng (QE3 and beyond) which seems like Russian rouelette.

#46 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.08.12 at 1:08 am

So RE is hitting the sitter. About dam time, too. I thought RE was nuts in 1997 when I built my shit-house for $109,900 felt like cryin’ RAPE!!!

Any idiot that pays carrying costs in excess of what rent would be after figuring a 20% down stroke is a moron.

Lots of them out there, there were lots of them in Phoenix, Miami, and elsewhere. They lost it, much like many in 416 are about to discover. Smokin’ Man, you are in error about much of 416 environ. Watch the ob erosion, then watch the price erosion.

Equities are more fun, and profitable, like yesterdays $5400 gain on a safe portfolio.

We are getting ready for that every 4 year lie fest the Presidential election, or choose the dummy test. I’m not sold on either guy. Four years of shoveling Bush’s crap I realize, and no cooperation from the opposition. The opposition a clueless convention, and no dam plan visible.
Should you vote “TRUST ME” or maybe, Alfred E Nueman’s “What me worry” creed for those 60’s kids who read certain magazines in those days of yore.

Decisions, decisions.

#47 rentin on 09.08.12 at 1:14 am

… assets to retire. How many people are currently in that position? Just 1%.

– Who says you have to retire? Ants will flourish, grasshoppers will die.

#48 new-era on 09.08.12 at 1:47 am

Garth go into hibernation

Take the winter off. In the Spring time, it’ll be a whole new world.

#49 Leggendario on 09.08.12 at 2:03 am

I’ve spoken with one of the Realtors here in Saskatoon. He is not very optimistic about the housing market right now. He told me that the Market has totally slowed down compare to 2 years ago.

Some of my friends who are not sophisticated financially are very proud of buying the house just before the new mortgage rules takes effect.

I’m just wondering after 5 years if they will going to refinance their mortgage on how they will reflect on making this very big decision.

I also met someone who are selling his house to buy a much bigger one which will cost 8 times more than his household income, in fact he is making 1/4th of what I’m earning I just can’t imagine how the banks approved such a loans. It was just astounding what happened to the once conservative banking loan policies of the big 4.

It will not going to end well. I’m sure of it because I already seen it before.

#50 FTP - First Time Poster on 09.08.12 at 2:13 am

Good on you for the open display of chivalry Garth. It’s the small details & everyday kindnesses that people forget. Happy wife – Happy life!

#51 TRT on 09.08.12 at 2:17 am

At what BoC prime rate would Boomers start selling paid off houses so they could get a good rate of return in GIC’s? 3%? 4%? 5%?

Is that what BoC and F are afraid of?? Having this ZIRP policy (as Truth Hammer suggests) will end badly. The longer it is in place, the worst will be the outflows…If rates have to rise as garth says, then this will be no ordinary melt. Demographics will eventually ensure it.

#52 cynically on 09.08.12 at 2:17 am

I just love Boring, Pedantic, Hectoring, Whining-the words that is, so keep them coming, Garth!

#53 Fred on 09.08.12 at 2:28 am

The comma in the last sentence is superfluous.

#54 DON on 09.08.12 at 3:14 am

@#35 Burnaby Renter

Nicely put.

There is much more to this blog than just real estate talk and provides a lot more than financial advice.

Have a good weekend.

Cheers,

#55 Jane24 on 09.08.12 at 3:29 am

Garth you hit the nail on the head here. When I visit my younger generation of relatives around TO they have huge but strangely enough, already tatty new homes with nothing in them. Literally nothing in the bedrooms but mattresses on the floor and white outdoor plastic sets for tables and chairs. And, total bitch comment I know, from a European perspective they can dress really down market too.

These are professional people, how can they live like this? Where is the Canadian dream – eaten by the massive house which it is also killing them to heat and cool.

You do have to live a good life or what is the point.

#56 Buy? Curious? on 09.08.12 at 5:48 am

Garth, I can point out a few things why this blog has become boring (no offence though).

Not enough sexual innuendoes in your photos anymore.

The other thing is that you don’t have any sad sack stories of losers being hurt by this impending housing correction. Well, I’m here to change that! I’ve got a great story!

A friend of mine, bought a condo off a mutual friend of ours. No negotiation, he paid “fair market value”. The seller was getting married and didn’t want the extra hassle during all the planning for the wedding and the buyer thought he was getting deal. That was 2009 and the condo is around King and Bathurst. I just heard from one of my sexy girlfriends (all my girlfriends are sexy) that these two guys had a blow-up last week over the condo. The buyer found a girlfriend and wanted to move out to Whitby but can’t because he’s lost all the equity he had in the condo! He would have to pay out the bank if he sold it today. He’s thinking of renting it out after Christmas. Now he’s angry and frustrated at the guy who sold it to him, blaming him for losing over $40k over the last 3 years. When I heard the story, I laughed and laughed, and laughed. Then I had a washroom break and laughed some more.

Never do business with friends.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjaU8vQo83g

#57 Rob the Dividend Trader on 09.08.12 at 6:12 am

For those interested

Canadian Dividend Stock

Has got a great section (albeit slighty dated) on Canadian RIETS. Some day on my own (unrelated blog) I’ll cover RIETS as well.

#58 Deb on 09.08.12 at 6:31 am

“But everybody needs…something stylish from Ginger’s to pee in.”

What’s that nugget all about? A specialty shop dealing in high-end receptacles for urination? That’s heavy. I didn’t realize that the late Shah of Iran’s golden toilet had started a movement.

#59 John on 09.08.12 at 6:47 am

Great blog ( it has to be pedantic, pathetic and hectoring at times due to circumstances…all totally outweighed and compensated for by it’s mere existence).

The style of humor and cleverness sets it apart…and lots of “new” content ( massaged and re-tooled day after day) to help with the now non-optional task of forming new beliefs about the western economy-culture…and the
world itself.

Jsan wrote:

“What in the world were our leaders thinking when they purposely inflated this housing bubble? There is not one shred of doubt in my mind that this was an engineered housing bubble.”

TRT kept it simple: “They were making money”.

If you can not be rhetorical and go forward with your “what in the world” theme, lots of perspective emerges
( although undertaking the task of actually accepting the facts is not a rational matter…but an emotional one…possibly a long process).

So. Expand that “world” thing to “what-who-where-when-why” in the world. The answer is globalism, so you accidentally nailed it. Drop some stuff. Like “our leaders”. Our leaders are banking cartels. The political structure is not a working democracy. The “money” sale was from global derivatives, put into place by a mish-mash of opportunistic money junkies. There is no conspiracy, anymore than there is a conspiracy of bacteria on your ground beef if you forget to put it into the fridge.

There are power consolidations and themes though. I’d say those would be impossible to know about reading main stream media. That system is just about control and supporting brain dead compliance and consumption
( like living a hyper reality of purchasing an 800,000 home in a wind swept former corn field in “Milton”, driving at 130 on the highway to wherever to do whatever, and spending 4-6 hours a day with a 429 channel isolation mechanism. In other words, much numbness for the pain…and often children are involved…who learn the themes of self-hate).

If you’re near Toronto, walk to a clearing so you can see the skyline. The buildings are red, gold, blue-white, black and a couple of other colours. All are mostly global casinos. Literally. Do you think this buildings are “Canadian”? They are not. If you don’t know this, use google. Find out. If you prefer to “argue” without checking…like I was saying, it’s an emotional process too.

“Who-what-when-where-why” in the world. Location’s good…maybe the answers are either unclear or unwanted.

What is your opinion about demographic lottery winners ( and some others) taking hundreds of thousands of dollars of the casino’s money out of the fake digital value of their house and “re-investing” it in the casino. Like…10 years out. Dare to move forward…I dunno..5 years?

“What in the world were you thinking?”

#60 COW MAN on 09.08.12 at 7:38 am

Sir Garth:

And all of the while you have been telling us that a housing correction won’t effect REITS? Everyone will feel the deleaveraging of debt. -:) Just like your florist, who down marketed in retail accommodation. Thank you for all of your great scripts.

#61 David McDonald on 09.08.12 at 7:49 am

Dear Garth,

It is difficult to avoid being whiny and repetitive because this story plays out over years. Don’t quit; this story needs to be told. Also there are a lot of thoughtful and knowledgable people who comment on your blog and I would like to continue hearing from them. Finally I enjoy hearing from a crotchety contrarian. Keep up the good work.

#62 Graham on 09.08.12 at 8:06 am

#32. 20% of the workforce at the Library and Archives of Canada were put on notice.

—–

Yes, indeed. The same government that is spending millions to commemorate the War of 1812 in the name of history and heritage is slashing jobs and services at the actual repository of the country’s history and heritage.

#63 ts harpoon on 09.08.12 at 8:09 am

Garth,

Thanks for mentioning Ottawa. You are right; too damned hot (bad for the lawns) and too darned cold (good for me-keeps the kooks away). Four houses located within spitting distance of our front steps are up for sale, priced at $500k – $800k. Apparently, no showings, sitting on the market for over 8 months and counting.

When are you going to visit us?

#64 Steven Rowlandson on 09.08.12 at 8:57 am

Garth the real estate market is dead and gone and it will be a very long time before it is resurrected.
The problem is not everyone has caught on to the situation yet. Dreams and mass delusions die hard Garth. Real estate and politics are classic examples.

#65 maxx on 09.08.12 at 9:05 am

“Those houses have sucked everybody dry,” Jeremy added…”

And Carney rails at the mentality of corporations (and by extension, the population at large) which opts to “stand pat” (idiotic phrase) on the issue of spending the mountains of cash they are sitting upon.

Good for them.

Discretionary spending has dried up and many are saving like there’s no tomorrow. The economy is sick, sick, sick. The MSM pallaver re the American phoenix rising again is another wave of BS and most aren’t buying it. Little will change until rates normalize for the real economy to get healthy again.

#66 Just Park It on 09.08.12 at 9:14 am

I know Garth has stated that some markets will get hammered while others will move along.

1 hour north of Toronto lies Barrie – and everytime I see a sale sign – it doesn’t take a week before a sold sign is slapped to it. I am hearing stories of GTA families selling and buying here at 1/2 the cost with alot more green space to boot.

If you were looking at a niche market that will defy the trends, look no further. We bought in 2002 – 2400sq. 60ft lot – lots of space for $198,000

Same house now – $348,000 – and that’s a bargain for anyone south of Hwy 7 – I know the market needs to be kicked in the pants and prices have to resort back to a moderate level – but Barrie is going to defy the odds (IMHO) so I’ll hold tight – and enjoy my house for what I had intended it for in the first place – shelter!

Peace to all.

#67 Watching from Abroad on 09.08.12 at 9:20 am

Still love reading your articles Garth. I have been following this mess for years since moving away from Canada. Watching as apparently everyone in BC could afford 500+ thousand houses and new SUV’s. I really thought that about 3 years ago the madness would end but it just got worse….At least I could read your blog and be reassured that I wasn’t totally out of touch with things…I thought everyone started make 200K a year while I was living overseas. I would come to visit and see signs stating…starting from the low 700’s for a cookie cutter in some field somewhere outside Surrey or White Rock- I had to ask if 700k was a lot of money because I thought it was crazy. Especially when you figure after dropping 700k, you would be commuting at least 40 minutes or more to work since there seemed to be nothing around, and nil public transit opportunities. They must have been giving away an SUV with the purchase … it should be interesting how this plays out over the next years. I though it might be more satisfying seeing things play out in real time…I guess I ll have to wait and see. Anyhow, it is better late than never.

#68 AD on 09.08.12 at 9:38 am

My brother is moving from Scotland to Spain to retire in 2 weeks with his girlfriend. He has a townhouse there that he bought for $240,000 that was worth $350 at one point and he is interested in buying a much larger house, so he wants me to buy his house for $123,000. I am considering it. I live in TO and think it would be a good idea to go to Spain for 4 months a year when I retire in 10 years. Do you think Spanish RE is a good investment right now. The prices are in the gutter.

#69 Junius on 09.08.12 at 9:54 am

#59 John,

I agree with much of what you say in this post. However (and I know you agree) this is a very complex matter and has a number of ways to answer it.

One consideration has to be that the current political and economic paradigm is deeply flawed and not it is broken. The neoliberalism of the past 3 or 4 decades has run aground and our leaders just don’t have any answers. There is also no credible alternative to compare or contrast with so they just keep pushing on a string.

At the centre of the storm is the economics profession who have quite simply failed us. In particular, the Chicago school, Milton Friedman and the move to ever increasing unfettered capitalism along with the post Keynesians who believe that monetary policy could solve anything.

Economists like Steve Keen and others have pointed out that they have not been dealing with reality for years having missed the role of banking (excessive leverage including derivatives) and consumer debt in the current economic paradigm.

The end of the global credit bubble has left them with no answer but to keep trying to inflate a flat tire. They simply don’t know what to do. As you rightly point out, the entire society is organized around consumption which was propelled artificially by debt. Now that is over.

The people in control of our political system, in particular the banks and international corporations, are deeply vested in maintaining the current system. They will keep trying to “double down” on the current paradigm because any alternative will not serve their perceived interests.

I think people are starting to wake up to the new reality. It will take time because our media is such crap and our population so under educated. However there is no way to put the ship back in the bottle now that it is broken.

The real danger is what will emerge from the devastation. The Neandercons, Randroids and the Tea partiers are feeding a very fundamentalist view of individualism that plays into the manipulations of the corporate state. There is yet no paradigm offered by what was the former left that is appealing.

Interesting times.

#70 Herb on 09.08.12 at 10:20 am

#34 (continued) …

But standing behind Truth Hammerer, a true gentleman and Canadian, I saw him whip out his wallet and pay the mailman’s bill so he would not be chagrined when he got home and his family go hungry.

And then I awoke from my commie socialist daydream.

#71 Jason on 09.08.12 at 10:40 am

#28 EIT – It’s actually quite the opposite in Ottawa – most of the cuts have been in well paying government jobs, and the new ones created are much lower paying. The number of people who have actually become unemployed due to government cuts at this time is fairly small, but the cuts have had a chilling effect on the entire public sector as many employees have been told either a) They are competing for their jobs and some will be let go in the next year or so. b) You’re safe now, but in a year or two you might not be. These government cuts will have an effect on the civil service’s perception of job security for years….even if the number actually cut remains small.

#72 The Cheap Generation on 09.08.12 at 10:54 am

That whole “First!” thing is stupid and anoying. Who cares. get a life.

There’s another factor that will add addtional down preasure on prices over the long term that i don’t think is discussed here often. It’s the fact that Generation Y simply doesn’t want the same life of excess that the boomers have strived for. They have been labled the cheap generation and they don’t want big expensive house or cars.

Tell me again… who’s goning to buy all those boomer mcmansions?

The Cheap Generation
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-generation/309060/1/

#73 EIT on 09.08.12 at 10:59 am

Super Mario is writing blank checks for Europe.
Ben wants to print more.
Bill Gross says credit expansion has reached limit.
Inflation to begin. Suggests buying gold, TIPS and real assets.

I’m tired of the old generation dumping its debts on my generation. @%^# you very much.

#74 live within your means on 09.08.12 at 11:05 am

#58 Deb on 09.08.12 at 6:31 am
“But everybody needs…something stylish from Ginger’s to pee in.”

What’s that nugget all about? A specialty shop dealing in high-end receptacles for urination? That’s heavy. I didn’t realize that the late Shah of Iran’s golden toilet had started a movement.
…………………………..

LOL

Check out:

http://www.gingerco.com/

#75 maxx on 09.08.12 at 11:33 am

#34 truth hammer on 09.07.12 at 11:13 pm

“I often tell the story of the mailman I stood behind in a check out line at the S – Store….he had a weeks worth of family groceries rung through…..kid stuff…cereal…bon bons….cheap processed crap in abundance…he produced one credit card after another……five in total….all rejected until he had to walk out without his weeks worth of groceries……not a dime to his name……and couldn’t borrow a penny……to be a fly on the wall when he went home to honey boo boo with out the bon bons.

The ZIRP and the NIRP has been the most destrcutive fiscal policy any government in history has ever run….the ZIRP has raped the savings of seniors and assured a nightmare of desperation within a few short years as soon as the CRA has ripped away the last fleshy covers of the seniors lifetime of savings. There will be no inheritances to save the kids who are underwater and will be for life.”

Excellent post TH. Last weekend, I was redeeming a free coffee coupon at the golden arches, when I spotted a woman with a flashy patent leather handbag in the next line. She retrieved a large wallet with at least 20 credit cards- what then struck me was that this handbag was shredded to smithereens, the handles held together with paper clips. I couldn’t think of a better symbolic representation for the state of our economy.

As for Z/NIRP, senior’s savings is not the only thing that’s been raped- years of life caused by money stress has also been taken away from them at the most fragile time of their lives. No ifs, ands or buts can be trotted out by TPTB. Bloody shame. Literally.

#76 Astute Poverty on 09.08.12 at 11:52 am

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/canadian-housing-bubble-full-mania-canada-household-debt-surpasses-us-household-debt-canada-real-estate/

#77 North o' TO on 09.08.12 at 11:59 am

for those with fingers on the pulse of the Fed…
The Scary Math Behind The Mechanics Of QE3, And Why Bernanke’s Hands May Be Tied

#78 TurnerNation on 09.08.12 at 12:03 pm

Oh great, AM radio hosts are flogging homes now.

Remember, Kawartha Lakes region’s official unemplyoment rate was last year 15%. Not counting those who’ve dropped out or on welfare.

http://www.640toronto.com/BromontHomes/Index.aspx

#79 North o' TO on 09.08.12 at 12:09 pm

if anyone is looking for a reality check with US mansions. Personally, I like the castle in New York.

9 Giant Homes For Bargain-Basement Prices(Forbes.com)

#80 Butt-head on 09.08.12 at 12:16 pm

A huh-huh-huh, he said “Extended”, a huh-huh-huh.

#81 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 12:16 pm

#68 AD – the prices in Spain have indeed gone down the gutter, but in time will go down the drain. Beware of a brother that wants YOU to buy his house for $123,000. Now for wanting to spend time 10 years from now for 4 months in Spain, a lot can change in 10 years, so say do nothing for now, but sit back and relax. I will pray for your brother in Spain.

#82 new-era on 09.08.12 at 12:18 pm

66 Just Park It on 09.08.12 at 9:14 am

I know Garth has stated that some markets will get hammered while others will move along.

1 hour north of Toronto lies Barrie – and everytime I see a sale sign – it doesn’t take a week before a sold sign is slapped to it. I am hearing stories of GTA families selling and buying here at 1/2 the cost with alot more green space to boot.

If you were looking at a niche market that will defy the trends, look no further. We bought in 2002 – 2400sq. 60ft lot – lots of space for $198,000

Same house now – $348,000 – and that’s a bargain for anyone south of Hwy 7 – I know the market needs to be kicked in the pants and prices have to resort back to a moderate level – but Barrie is going to defy the odds (IMHO) so I’ll hold tight – and enjoy my house for what I had intended it for in the first place – shelter!

Peace to all.
====================

Its interesting you made approxiate 70% on your house after 11 years.

But lets look at it from opportunity cost.

1) if you bought apple 7.00 per share in 2002 now around 700 dollars you would now have 200,000* 20,000,000 in capital. I think you lost out buddy

2) gold 300 to 1600 today. your investment would be worth 1,066,000 dollars.

3. How about 10 year bonds was appoxiately 4.25% 10 years ago. so If you bought a 11 years it would come out to approxiately 330,000 dollars. With property taxes and maintenance. So buying bonds, you would still be ahead of your investment.

#83 Tony on 09.08.12 at 12:23 pm

Re: #66 Just Park It on 09.08.12 at 9:14 am

Homes will likely fall to around 1995 to 1997 valuations so the 348,000 dollar house most certainly will fall below 198 grand in the coming years in Barrie.

#84 Northman on 09.08.12 at 12:24 pm

Good day Garth,

I found your blog a couple of months ago and have found it very informative.

We moved from Cda to Las Vegas in August 2001, we bought, sold in 2005, built new, closed financing with 25% dp, in January 2006 and promptly watched all my equity and 60% of the appraised value flush down the drain,
We moved to the Peg in July 2010 and have been renting ever since. Lots of comments from colleagues about “missing the opportunity to buy before prices keep rising” “what happened in US could never happen here” yada yada yada.

I concur with your opinion that Cdns likely won’t walk from underwater mortgages. We still have our home in NV with tenants and some nagging hope the market will rebound to the point we can salvage some value.

Finally, we rent in a ‘desirable’ community here and homes have been selling as fast as signs go up. The normal MO, put up a sign during the week, open house on the weekend, offers on Monday and the SOLD sign goes up. A couple of weeks ago a 26 year old 1200 sf sfh a couple of doors down got the sign. I did a little websearch and saw that it sold a couple of years ago for $289k, it listed again a year ago @ $309k (no reason to believe it didn’t sell for higher than list) and now the asking is $349k. It showed all Labour Day weekend and offers due Tuesday. Lo and behold, no SOLD sign this week. A courtesy call to the agent indicated it is still available and they are showing on appointments.

Anecdotal sure, but against the backdrop of a colleague anxious to buy here making 13 offers between April and June and being outbid on all and having to pay $70k over a list of $350k in June suggests the heat is off.

Everything we experienced in So. NV from 2001 to 2010 seems to be happening here. Using equity in home as ATM to finance discretionary spending, buying way more house than is needed, believing prices could never come down… It is surreal.

#85 maxx on 09.08.12 at 12:27 pm

#72 The Cheap Generation on 09.08.12 at 10:54 am

Labeling someone or a generation “cheap” is a transparent device intent on manipulation and social engineering.
Millennials are far too smart to get sucked in by this archaic, blunt little tool. I take my hat off to them with a bow and a flourish.
Those who bandy this controlspeak about through media spray are being noticed.

#86 bubble head on 09.08.12 at 12:46 pm

quick question –

if renting will be the new trend, will it not create an increase in the cost of renting?
650sq goes for about 1600 in the GTA should I assume the price to increase? If prices increase will it not create at least a break even cash flow, thus people will start to buy again?

I can’t see rent increase when the bubble bursts, Or will it and why?
Won’t that create a

#87 detalumis on 09.08.12 at 12:58 pm

Actually the reason is because in North America flowers aren’t a priority like they are in Europe. There you will find flower markets and flower stalls and people routinely will buy groceries and flowers because the displays are designed to catch your eye. Here they are strictly for weddings, funerals, Valentine’s Day and the odd peace offering.

If the florist in question had say renovated her store and made it more inviting i.e. just do a google map of Paris and look at the florists there, I’m sure she would have had more walk-in trade. Many florists here have pretty dingy shops and rely on canned FTD and Teleflora arrangements with pretty ugly flowers on display.

#88 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 1:11 pm

The problem with Barrie is years ago people bought as prices were a bargain, and did the car thing into the GTA. Hwy 400 has become a nightmare, so all bets are now off, and prices in Barrie will collapse as well. Oh it is going to become a bloodbath; first 416; then 905; and the GTA will not escape – the panic will spread nationwide with some winners, but lots of losers.

#89 TurnerNation on 09.08.12 at 1:18 pm

(John great posts as always. Some bafflegab but some pause for thoughts).

A factor not often mentioned in the comments, many people hold several properties. Not just one house to worry about.

Example: a few years ago you bought a big house, 5% down, 30 or 35 yr amort. Prime -.8%. 5 year term.

Upon renewal in 2013 or 2014 the bank sez: oh, we can only do 25 yrs at 3.5% mmmk?

Kind of a problem. But what about your other, one or two spec condos? They’ve been floating along at barely cash flow positive.
One’s sat emtpy for a few months – dragging you down by over $1000 in monthly cash flow.

Possible problems:

– Spouse is on Mat leave, cash flow’s dried up. Bank no like.
– Condo’s mortgage is up for renewal too. Bank hems and haws at your income statement. Will they continue to front your losing ways?
– Or, kid’s going to school. Time to raise cash. But when you sell your condo, after costs, you’ll be in the hole by 10k.
– No one will lend to you. See point about mortgage renewal at 25 yrs. Cash flow has dried up. You are efffectively bankrupt at this point.
– LOCs are already tapped fully. Car leases are in place. Repo time.

#90 Victor on 09.08.12 at 1:33 pm

Vote: How concerned are you about your household debt?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/poll-how-concerned-are-you-about-your-household-debt/article4523202/

#91 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 1:35 pm

The real case for renting is not always the price, as you will get what you pay for in any given area, so shop around for a bargain, and never renew a one year lease, but go month to month with the original lease in place, and never let the landlord con you into another lease agreement.

The key to renting is FREEDOM, as you can give the landlord legal notice to move on, for the purchase of a bargain in a few years if a ‘real bottom’ becomes apparent, or whatever. You have control of movement when the time is right, and save money for the big day of home ownership for half price – hopefully!

#92 eagle eyes on 09.08.12 at 1:48 pm

#89 Turner Nation
Upon renewal in 2013 or 2014 the bank sez: oh, we can only do 25 yrs at 3.5% mmmk?
_________________________________

Now, from my understanding….once you get a 30 yr amortization, upon renewal you can continue with your original 30 yrs unless you change banks, etc. No?

#93 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 2:03 pm

#89 Turner Nation – I am laughing so hard about Repo time, as years ago took a prime 2 bedroom apartment with this guy who graduated from U of T, and we had it all with the party room, tennis courts, the dome pool, the nursing hospital across the road, and oh the babes who kept us busy. Sweet memories!

My roomate was from Europe, so off he went to visit his family for a few weeks, and when he came back said my sports car in underground parking is gone. He forgot to make his payment, and the Repo man took it away, and sold it quickly to pay off his loan. I could not believe this all, so am sure he must have been late in the past, or did they punk him?

#94 truth hammer on 09.08.12 at 2:04 pm

#75 Maxx…good eye…I see people on their last legs all the time….now that working families can make after work hours appointments at the food bank to supply a few days groceries to their kids….. the true state of the country has reached a well disguised sinkhole of desperation. After all these starving wrkers are showing up at the food banks in brand new cars and trucks!

I hear from teachers anecdotes that the number of kids who are showing up without lunches and who havn’t had breakfast is growing exponentially. Hockey registration in Ont is down 90% last year.

The seniors are well and truly ‘f**ked’…..they were promised a staedy income from CSB’s in ads that ran every fall of their generation…….now they have had to cannabalize their meagre savings and crystallize the withdrawals as fully taxable years before they would have ever dreamed…….the ZIRP and the CRA has been like a ring of hungry jackals circling around and picking off the weakest…disgusting behaviour on behalf of the governments involved.

Personal taxation and property taxes on commercial property have all but killed the dreams of small time entrepeneurs……the once vaunted small business engine of the country is dead…..this was where 99% of the new jobs has been created traditionally.

The growth in new jobs has all been in the public sector unions……and with that increase has come the never ending upward spiral of increased indirect taxation in fee’s and utility and sales taxes etc to support the growing burden of the unionized employee’s. The governement run unions have killed the citizen in exchange for increased power and labour peace between elections…….

In this recession the only ones who have been steadilt gaining are the public sector unions…..kept fat by threatening instability while minority governments fought it out……these union jackals have stripped the meat off the working class corpses left behind.

Costs for the average person have risen exponentially to support the bloated greed of the civic servant….while they recieve fat perks and outrageous pension deposits……in some cases 24 to 1……..criminal behaviour in my opinion…at the very least the most immoral group of citizens rthis country has ever produced.

With their assurance of caviar dreams in retirement these civic pigs have rolled in the public trough and sailed through the great recession while the rest of the people suffer……..shame on these greedy buggers…shame forever shame

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/with-no-rebound-in-sight-theres-never-been-a-slump-like-this/article4528610/

#95 Robert on 09.08.12 at 2:05 pm

The banks have drawn a new line in the sand and have made it very clear that Canadian Real Estate is now considered tier three collateral. That’s right they have have set the bar at somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% of appraised value. The key here is that simple word appraised.. Talked to a realtor yesterday who said not only are there fewer buyers but now the banks want appraisals and these appraisals are killing deals in their tracks.
Here is what is happening in my neck of the woods and I am only tracking homes from $250,000 to $350,000. There are currently 101 homes listed of which 60 have already had at least one price reduction. Since July 1 there have been 7 units sold! There have been 6 homes back on the market from pending sales in other words deals collapsed. As new listings come online I have noted that the asking prices are dropping which tells me the realtors are at least being realistic. One listing came online in early august at $350,000 and I thought it was well priced and would sell very quickly well I was wrong. Not one offer and now after thirty days, another similar home was listed with 100 more square feet and a better location and yes it was listed at $334,000. Both homes are absolutely immaculate and need next to no work. Now the $350,000 home is grossly over priced as I am sure you could buy the $334,000 home for $320,000. Now add to this another home where they are asking $350,000 for way less house and has been on the market for four months. In this case these sellers have been building another home which will be ready Oct 1 and they never even considered their home would not sell. Based on comparables and current listings this home will have to be priced in the $275,000 range to sell.. NOW WHAT? Another example of a friend of mine who owned a home and also built based on selling his house in the $275,000 range. Sixty days after no offers his realtor suggested that if he were to upgrade his home he would be able to get a quick sale in the low $300,000 range. So after replacing the roof, flooring,counter tops,sinks ,faucets, baseboards before he knew it he had another 35k in his home. Thirty days later no offers and you guessed it his new home was ready and he moved into it. After renovations the home was listed at $334,000 and has now been reduced to $302,000 and sits empty while he struggles carrying both properties not to mention he is a nervous wreck as he is beginning to think that he just blew 35k… Finally an offer comes in at $280,000 and he decides to cut it loose until the inspection report is completed and now the buyer wants another $8000 off to replace the furnace and the hot water tank.. not sure what he decided but he did tell me that if he accepts he will be left with a personal loan of 25k to clear himself totally of the property. I am sure there are thousands of these stories across the Canada right now and what is surprising to me is how fast things can unravel..

#96 jess on 09.08.12 at 2:05 pm

weeding and pruning

“The settlement with Priore and ICP sends a clear message that investment advisers must always act in the best interests of their advisory clients, even if those clients are sophisticated investors,” said George S. Canellos, Deputy Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. “When advisers put their own interests ahead of their clients’ interests, the SEC will seek to hold them accountable.”

…”Priore and the ICP companies also consented, without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations, to permanent injunctions enjoining them from future violations of the securities laws that they were alleged to have violated, which include Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Sections 10(b) and 15(c)(1)(A) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rules 10b-3 and 10b-5, and Sections 206(1), (2), (3), and (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and Rules 204-2, 206(4)-7 and 206(4)-8.

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-184.htm

#97 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 09.08.12 at 2:13 pm

#68 AD on 09.08.12 at 9:38 am

My brother is moving from Scotland to Spain to retire in 2 weeks with his girlfriend. He has a townhouse there that he bought for $240,000 that was worth $350 at one point and he is interested in buying a much larger house, so he wants me to buy his house for $123,000. I am considering it. I live in TO and think it would be a good idea to go to Spain for 4 months a year when I retire in 10 years. Do you think Spanish RE is a good investment right now. The prices are in the gutter.

===================================

I don’t understand why no-one rents/retires in Detroit.

Lots of units sitting empty. Rent is dirt cheap. Put your money in the bank, live like a king.

#98 Doug in London on 09.08.12 at 2:22 pm

So, what about the people who sold their overpriced houses recently and made a huge capital gain the equivalent of winning the lottery? Don’t they have the money to spend on posies?

#99 Bend over on 09.08.12 at 2:32 pm

Anyone drive down Granville lately? I did last night, it was unreal to see all the For Sale signs. There was one section where 8 houses in a row all had signs. The party is definitely over in Van.

#100 leo on 09.08.12 at 2:34 pm

#79 Those are amazing beautiful, quality homes. Real estate is local. Bubble psychology causes people to buy into the “value” of their homes at crazy prices1-3 million. If they only opened their eyes to what is available, they can see the true value of their homes.

#101 45north on 09.08.12 at 2:37 pm

Just park it: I know the market needs to be kicked in the pants and prices have to resort back to a moderate level – but Barrie is going to defy the odds

as old man says: Hwy 400 has become a nightmare, so all bets are now off, and prices in Barrie will collapse as well. Barrie real estate is totally dependent on gasoline prices, Canada was right to cut diplomatic ties with Iran but everything is related to everything. I’m pretty sure old man didn’t really mean “all bets are off”. What he meant was that the original assumptions are off. The bets are still on the table. I’d would say that prices will first collapse in the 905 followed by 416. As Garth pointed out demand in Leaside, Toronto has remained strong and constant. I’d also say that prices in Roncesvalles will be highly resilient.

why don’t we check back here next year

#102 Leggendario on 09.08.12 at 2:41 pm

@Saskatoon-Living

You should take a look at the number of jobs added to other provinces as BC leads the country in Jobs added (51,700), followed by Alberta (43,300). Although, the population here is much smaller still I don’t think this number will prevent some drastic reduction in house prices within this coming months.

#103 Julia on 09.08.12 at 2:48 pm

We rent a decent one bedroom apartment a 5 minute walk from Yonge and Bloor with a perfect view of the CN Tower and Garth’s new offices from the balcony (worth half the rent right there). We pay $1175 incl and the bedroom and balcony are double the size of what you get in a new condo in this hood for $400k. I look at condo listings all the time but i haven’t found one i like the location of as much as my building, even if the prices were to drop substantially.

I often wonder, if i found one i liked, at what price it would become a better deal to buy than renting…

#104 John on 09.08.12 at 2:52 pm

Old Man wrote:

“You have control of movement when the time is right, and save money for the big day of home ownership for half price – hopefully!”

Emphasis on “hopefully”. It’s highly debatable that the systemic machinations that led to the “Canadian” housing bubble means “sideliners” can “jump back in” with fake derivatives-based casino winnings.

Anything is possible of course. The “ignore reality” angle might mean leaving out some obvious risks.

On the other hand, the population might allow rolling forward with Goldman Sachs et al as plantation bosses.

Don’t mention democracy in the same breath though.

#105 Alberta Rocks on 09.08.12 at 3:02 pm

Good on Harper for shutting down the Cdn embassy in Iran. This is something that the politically-correct, see-no-evil Libs wouldn’t have had the stones for. Hopefully the Iranian reaction won’t endanger Canadians — but the Iranian govt is known for its thuggery.

#106 live within your means on 09.08.12 at 3:25 pm

#62 Graham on 09.08.12 at 8:06 am
#32. 20% of the workforce at the Library and Archives of Canada were put on notice.

—–

Yes, indeed. The same government that is spending millions to commemorate the War of 1812 in the name of history and heritage is slashing jobs and services at the actual repository of the country’s history and heritage.
…………………………….

My thoughts as well.

#107 daystar on 09.08.12 at 3:39 pm

#81 new-era on 09.08.12 at 12:18 pm

While your analysis of competing opportunities makes for a compelling arguement that other forms of investment are more profitable, RE has offered gains by way of extreme leverage (10% or less down) and lowering the cost of living when one factors in rates and rents in older scenarios. Sure, in the case of 70% gains over 10 years, this may seem trivial to a successful investor but these are 70% gains most likely with 20% down or less. If its 10%, our example put up 20 G’s of stake money or money alloted for investment purposes and borrowed for the rest to buy a house. 20 G’s of stake money to invest combined with extreme leverage generates 148 G’s of equity (yet unrealized), provides a dwelling with more rights, builds credit and in this scenario could create payments that are less than rents and offer an image of “stability” that women and men look for when the urge doth come to nest. That is a win win investment but… its also rear view mirror, a paradigm that worked in 2002 but in general won’t work today.

At present, RE is in a national correction that could last a couple years as valuations withdraw from unsustainable mania in a low interest rate environment. The potential for higher interest rates 2+ years from now, if realized, continues to melt the RE market for another 3 years or more. Either way, from an investors point of view, RE is a bad bet in general, possibly for the next 5 years to come but in hindsight, with the use of leverage, RE has had a tremendous run up until this year. Too bad our Harper government abused CMHC and allowed valuations to be set by incomes over credit conditions or RE could have created the same opportunities we had 10 years ago. Now, all we have is a credit bubble subject to risk from higher rates. The only queston in my mind is how high interest rates need to go before they breed a recession in Canada. I’m thinking BoC rates at 4% could do it and that could happen inside of 3 years, 6% within 5 years and I’m basing this on growing gross public debt levels and external debt breakdowns. The only wildcard is U.S. central banking policy and/or war over the next 5 years.

#108 daystar on 09.08.12 at 3:44 pm

Wups, I meant to say, allowed valuations to be set by “credit conditions over incomes”.

#109 Westernman on 09.08.12 at 3:52 pm

Alberta Rocks @ # 105,
Believe one thing Sir, the Iranians couldn’t care less about Canada shutting down it’s embassy and we aren’t even enough of a concern for them to worry about … you overestimate Canada’s importance in the world…

#110 Canadian Watchdog on 09.08.12 at 3:53 pm

“but Barrie is going to defy the odds ”

Barrie’s unemployment rate is 9.7% as of 2011, the highest unemployment rate of all metropolitan areas in Ontario.

#111 Debt Slave on 09.08.12 at 3:59 pm

Edmonton and Calgary are booming.Any way Canadians love their houses and condos so people will always be buying and selling even if its unaffordable.Canadians have high living standards and don’t want to feel like a loser, if they are renting for any length of time.It be great if we could have the affordability like the USA but the goverment and the banks want us highly in debt.

#112 live within your means on 09.08.12 at 4:00 pm

#87 detalumis on 09.08.12 at 12:58 pm
Many florists here have pretty dingy shops and rely on canned FTD and Teleflora arrangements with pretty ugly flowers on display.
………………

So true. A sis sent me one of those arrangements a few years ago. Half of the arrangement was half dead. When she called to ask if I had received it, I said yes, but half the flowers were on the way out. She told me how much she had paid for it & I was flabbergasted. She called them up, complained & an hour or so later, I received a beautiful, fresh arrangement.

My MIL loves certain, especially Gerbera flowers so for special occasions we go together with my BIL & his wife in France to have flowers delivered. She prefers simple arrangements rather than one huge arrangement so we arrange to have flowers sent to her 3 wks in a row. FIL loves flowers but MIL hates the ones he grows. When in France, I would buy lots of bulbs, plants for my FIL years ago. We would spend lots of time together gardening & discussing plants.

My DH buys me flowers because he doesn’t dare buy me anything in the way of clothing, etc.

Many years ago a close neighbour & I did all the flower arrangements for her son’s wedding – church & reception – from our gardens to coordinate with their wedding colours.

#113 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 4:05 pm

#103 Julia will assume that you are high up, and there is a new trend afoot to get rid of cable tv, and use the latest technology called cable free to save money, and one can bring in about 15 major channels or more if done right in Toronto.

#114 triplenet on 09.08.12 at 4:11 pm

# 83 Tony
Homes will likely fall to around 1995 to 1997 valuations so the 348,000 dollar house most certainly will fall below 198 grand in the coming years in Barrie.
——————————————–
Would it not follow that there would be corresponding changes to other economic variables that are at play in the related sector(s) of the (local) economy.
Interest rates, wages, inflation, taxes(all forms), employment rates etc., to name a few.
If the property is worth $198,000 – that’s because the market can’t/won’t pay more. It’s value is relative to purchasing power.
Not an entirely happy thought.

#115 Gunboat Denier on 09.08.12 at 4:53 pm

82 New era – “Just park it” didnt buy the house as an investment – he bought it for shelter. His choice was not house or apple, it was buy or rent.

Your comparisons also assume he bought with cash. Maybe he did, in which case he could have mortgaged it
and bought the noted investments. If he required a mortgage to purchase the house, only the DP was available for invesment.

As for Barrie, I dont know that market so I cant comment.

72 Cheap – R U the thing in my basement??

#116 maxx on 09.08.12 at 4:57 pm

#94 truth hammer on 09.08.12 at 2:04 pm

Interesting to note the dismal science professionals adopting space-science terminology……”escape velocity”…ROFLMAO….those armies of steel-rim spectacle dorks affecting the language of astronauts. They comprise the least intellectually sexy group on the planet. Too proud to pick a penny off of the ground but will screw anyone if they can save 1/100th of that in the anonymous privacy of their ivory tower offices.

#117 Julia on 09.08.12 at 5:02 pm

#113 Old Man. You betcha. Have had free high def digital TV by antenna on my 22nd floor balcony for at least two years now. I get over 20 stations. Another plus of a rental building — no rules about not attaching antennas and having to have Rogers. Funny you should mention it because it’s one of the questions I ask when I go to vew a condo.

#118 TurnerNation on 09.08.12 at 5:14 pm

#23 Soylent. Everybody must keep this in mind: here is the person that fired Garth.

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/221861/slide_221861_892646_free.jpg?1346605776000

Look at the picture. Really. Really?? This is the best we’ve got leading our nation? God help us.

I think I live in Dweebville.

#119 TurnerNation on 09.08.12 at 5:15 pm

#25 Watchdog, you chart needs to be on the front page of Star, Sun, Globe. What a joke. 800k-1 mill for a 35 foot lot, 4 feet away from neighbour, on disused farmland north of GTA.

http://informedadvantage.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/price-by-muni-product-type-july2012-v2.jpg

#120 Herb on 09.08.12 at 5:18 pm

#105 Alberta Rocks,

in international affairs there always is a reason for doing something, as well as a rationale for public consumption.

What Harper has given us via Baird is the rationale, the propaganda. We’ll have to wait for the reason(s) – good or bad – to emerge over time.

#121 Derek R on 09.08.12 at 5:34 pm

#94 truth hammer on 09.08.12 at 2:04 pm wrote:

Personal taxation and property taxes on commercial property have all but killed the dreams of small time entrepeneurs……the once vaunted small business engine of the country is dead…..this was where 99% of the new jobs has been created traditionally.

Almost right. But the true problem is the rent on small business premises, not the tax. Even if property tax was reduced to zero, it wouldn’t help most Small Businesses because their landlords would just raise the rent by the same amount leaving the SBs no better off.

Abolishing property tax was tried in “Enterprise Zones” in the UK during the 1980s and it had no effect except to drive up rents and make property so expensive that no Small Business could afford to buy it.

The lesson from that is that if we want to encourage Small Businesses (and we really, really do), we need to raise property taxes so that rents and property prices will fall.

#122 disciple on 09.08.12 at 5:36 pm

For those who think I’m crazy, here is the twitter link to Catherine Marois, aka Super Nanny. She is the daughter of Pauline Marois, leader of Quebec, and the same actor who plays Linda Joslin and who previously played both Princess Dies… arise from your slumber…

https://twitter.com/catherinemarois

#123 martin9999 on 09.08.12 at 5:37 pm

Garth do you think there is QE3 comming this week?

#124 Canadian Watchdog on 09.08.12 at 5:37 pm

Brampton city staff take a drubbing over secrecy

“Councillors said they were dumbfounded to find out through the press recently that the province’s Information and Privacy Commissioner, after a long investigation they knew nothing about, had ordered the city to release details of Brampton’s downtown redevelopment after staff refused to disclose information even to council about its cost and square footage.’

here

Follow the trail and it leads to:

“A private citizen requested information about the square footage of the City Hall expansion. Dominus Construction Group, who owns this information, requested that the City keep it confidential. The City Clerk could only disclose the information with permission from Dominus.”

Dominus Construction Group
Dominus Construction Group Ltd. Info

And down the rabbit hole:

Fraser Milner Casgrain LLP

“Dominus was represented by Fraser Milner Casgrain LLP with a team composed of Philip Rimer and Kelly Elliott in Ottawa”

It’s just getting started folks.

#125 Astute Poverty on 09.08.12 at 5:38 pm

Well Garth at least in Canada you can’t get arrested for pointing out the truth like this guy in India…

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/new_scientist/2012/07/a_statue_of_jesus_oozing_holy_water_an_indian_skeptic_debunks_miracle.html

#126 soho ne on 09.08.12 at 5:44 pm

when the big one hits bopeep land ,there will be a lot of homes that will fall down in the city of vancouver due to shoddy engineering.for the sake of a couple sheets of plywood.most were built before 2000.the builder would say the drywall will hold it while you were shaking the whole house with one hand.how could the engineers be so stupid! not enough schooling?

#127 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 5:45 pm

#103 Julia – you are renting for $1,175 a month or about $14,100 per year, and comparing such to a condo in your area that costs $400,000. Lets do some simple math, and lets say that condo goes down just a modest 25% tomorrow, and by waiting you have just saved 7+ years in disposable hard earned capital by renting. So be patient, and keep on renting until a firm botton hits in a few years, and save more hard earned capital to get a bargain.

#128 Canadian Watchdog on 09.08.12 at 5:49 pm

#119 TurnerNation

Vaughan is where all the head honchos in construction live; a real estate crash there could be like the ending of Scarface.

#129 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 09.08.12 at 6:26 pm

#66 Just Park It – “1 hour north of Toronto lies Barrie”

We bought in Barrie in 1990, a beautiful four bedroom home with views out over Kempenfelt Bay, for $156K. The original owner purchased it two years earlier for close to $179K. Fast forward another two years and the property was sold for $129K.

You purchased at the bottom as the bubble was beginning its expansion. But do not be deluded: Barrie is not a community immune to a real estate downturn.

#130 TurnerNation on 09.08.12 at 6:28 pm

#70Herb on 09.08.12 at 10:20 am

Quite right! Canada post offer bankable sick days (forever), gold plated pensions, union job-for-life, and the contstant threat of strikes. Notice the price of stamps rises by at least 1c, each year and every year. Mainly to pay for obese public union salaries. They tack a fuel surcharge onto parcels too.

Get ready to further open your wallet when this rich, elite worker-tribe hits retirement age. .

I welcome Private unions doing battle with corporations. But Public unions have run their course. End the madness.

#131 TurnerNation on 09.08.12 at 6:35 pm

By the way, a similar, sick system – US Postal Service imploded:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-05/news/30476320_1_distance-mail-mail-processing-centers-first-class-mail

If only our “Convervative” govt would stand up and break the Public union racket. Sure, right after they give us an elected Senate. Still waiting…

#132 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 6:41 pm

#118 TurnerNation – thanks a lot as that is Caesar, and you spoiled my T-Bone steak, so threw it to my dog.

If you must break the law, do it to seize power; in all other cases observe it.

– Julius Caesar

#133 TRT on 09.08.12 at 6:46 pm

Met an International Student yesterday..

Just bought a house in Surrey…AND…got CMHC insurance on it!!! He says he gave minimum down payment and will live in it and rent out the suites to other international students.

I think his plan is if housing crashes/melts and he doesn’t get permanent residency, he will just return the keys to the bank/CMHC and go back to India.

Wow!

#134 TRT on 09.08.12 at 6:47 pm

If anyone doubts an international student getting a CMHC mortgage, call a mortgage broker and see for yourself!

#135 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 09.08.12 at 6:56 pm

Alberta Rocks @ # 105: The press release said that one of the reasons for the shutdown of our Embassy was the non-compliance of UN resolutions.

What a crock of SH+T ! When is Canada going to shut down our Embassy in the other Middle Eastern country that has actually violated a whole pile of UN resolutions??

http://salemshalom.blogspot.ca/2007/12/heres-list-of-u.html

#136 mel in victoria on 09.08.12 at 7:13 pm

Have a good one Garth…

#137 gtrz4peace on 09.08.12 at 7:47 pm

#70 Herb & the union-bashers

I see, so you think because you have some gold, guns and canned goods stashed away that the hard-fought-for rights all unions work for do not also benefit you?

No unions = no weekend. No overtime. No sick days at all and working for what they really do pay mine workers in Africa. And kids? Watch those fingers at the meat plant, son.

THE RIGHT TO ORGANIZE IS THE MOST BASIC TENET OF ANY DEMOCRACY.

Our enemy isn’t “bloated public unions” – it is those, whomever they may be and whatever “class” they are from — who would eliminate the right of workers to organize because without a strong labor movement, there is no middle class., and no real democracy.

In that sense it is like a magician toying with a baby, waving a shiny toy — “Look over here! The teachers! They’re the real enemy!” Pay no attention to the folks behind the curtain.

The reason for breaking unions is almost always political rather than primarily financial. Please read history. The first thing any government does, as it begins to shift towards a more authoritarian leaning, is to destroy the trade unions by any means necessary.

I guess what we are trying to say is, be careful what you wish for … you may get it.

#138 Herb on 09.08.12 at 7:47 pm

#130 Turner Nation,

what do the HR arrangements and finances of a crown corporation have to do with the situation of a father unable to buy food for his family?

I am so glad that you neandercons are not Christians! If you were, I would worry about the future of Christianity. But since you probably profess to be, you might worry about the “I shall vomit them out of my mouth” bit.

#139 Julia on 09.08.12 at 7:50 pm

#127 Old Man — so if I invest the $400k and earn at least $14k per year to cover my rent so i essentially live free vs buy a $400k condo and pay at least $10k in fees, taxes, repairs etc., per year, what % would the price of the condo have to go down so that i could possibly be ahead financially buying instead of renting?

#140 BC Bring Cash on 09.08.12 at 8:27 pm

the Canadian housing bubble was deliberately organised by H & Goldman Sachs own Mr C. They encouraged the Banks to lend out sub prime mortgages after the American bubble burst. Now the Banks will be looting the Federal Treasury through the CMHC. Nice job H.
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/canadian-commentary/25801-canadian-housing-bubble-nears-implosion

Reading that web site causes blindness. — Garth

#141 Hoof-Hearted on 09.08.12 at 8:47 pm

I dunno…either Garth is mellowing out…or Smoking Man got a spell checker…..WTF ?

#142 Old Man on 09.08.12 at 9:25 pm

#139 Julia you changed your major premise on me, so here is what you do. Garth will be holding a seminar in Toronto sometime in October which he has yet to formally announce. BE THERE, as this will be your first step which is imperative, as will be a great learning experience, and the place to start your journey.

#143 Vancouverite on 09.08.12 at 10:20 pm

99 Bend over on 09.08.12 at 2:32 pm wrote:
Anyone drive down Granville lately? I did last night, it was unreal to see all the For Sale signs. There was one section where 8 houses in a row all had signs. The party is definitely over in Van.
———————————————
If you are referring to the 8 houses near 45th ave on the busy road, you have to buy ALL 8 lots for $29million – per listing agent details.

Guess they want some developer would buy them all up, rezone and build higher density housing.

#144 45north on 09.08.12 at 10:22 pm

Robert: if he accepts he will be left with a personal loan of 25k to clear himself totally of the property. what is surprising to me is how fast things can unravel..

Mark Hanson talks about “effectively underwater” – he means that 50% of Americans with mortgages cannot sell because they just don’t have the money. In the case of your friend – at least the bank will lend him the $25,000.

#145 Smoking Man on 09.08.12 at 10:42 pm

#141. Hoof

Dude. Only a few of u out there trully understand my genius.

To speel perfectly with gramor perfection is an act of obidiance. It is a statment of submission and giving control of your life to the machine.

I am a real Man I do and say what I want. I abouse alcohale and other things. Ladies of the night bi weekly. No need to fit in in my world. Its called. Fing freedom. Something most of you never tasted once in your pathetic obediant existance on this planet

I will not go quietly into the knight. I will never change. Wealth and success can only be achived when you don’t give a shit. When you become the judge.

#146 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.08.12 at 11:14 pm


#41 Hoof – Hearted — “The others…well….no law against stupidity..yet.” — True enough. We were dumb enough to give the CPC a majority, and despite themselves, are still in power. Stupid is as stupid votes!

#48 new-era — “In the Spring time, it’ll be a whole new world.” — Trouble is, he may not recognize it and go back underground again (that’s where all the action is anyway!).

#59 John — “Our leaders are banking cartels. The political structure is not a working democracy.” — Accurate. Politicos are the figureheads on Rolls Royces, the engine (stomach) is the driving force. Forget to change the oil a few times, and the whole thing shudders to a halt.

#109 Westernman — “… you overestimate Canada’s importance in the world…” — Agreed. Canada is like a flea on an elephant’s backside, and wouldn’t even be felt.

Of note, Iran (supposedly) has the third largest Jewish population behind Israel and the US, living there quite peacefully and happily.

Noddin’ Yahoo has invited them to return to Israel several times, and has been rebuffed on every occasion. The economy and political landscape may have something to do with it. Besides, this whole thing may be someone’s invention to instil and create fear and mass panic.
*
Global Economy Entering hurricane season; The Wheels are Spinning; Soros “Pathetic attempt at blackmail; this may backfire if Germany decides to leave.” wrh.com; 3:34 clip UK’s double dip; TPTB’s Depop. Plan Take all the banking, priestcraft. drug, politicians and lobbyists, kill ’em all and let gdO sort them out; Wells Fargo Screwing people royally; China – Russia Gives China the leeway to introduce a new gold-backed currency; Recession Men unlikely to recover; Ten Highest Paying Jobs CPP – OAS – GIS or SS isn’t one; Expats Leaving China; Sweden vs. US; Venice and Globalization Not the best of friends; Decade of low growth; 28:30 clip US$2500 / oz. gold means war.
*
US shutting down on purpose? Link in, but the write-up (one para.) ispretty good; Driving Force of the west. Has it really been discovered? The ‘net Why are the US and Israel so afraid of the ‘net? Kannaaduhhhh I would hazard a guess by saying the economy is about to fall off a cliff, and the US needed a distraction; Einstein Courtesy Monsanto, there are significantly less bees now; Abnormal Because normal is boring and sheeple-esque; RussiaStandiing firm on Syria and Iran; Fat and Fit Curious article; Marijuana Cancer fighter? Taco Bell Not good advertising; 51:34 doc. JFK — The men who killed Kennedy was the coup d’etat; Bubonic Plague from a camping trip; Hubble Pix of the universe; In my younger days . . .

#147 Smoking Man on 09.08.12 at 11:20 pm

The Machine wants produtive slaves. It wants obidiance and conformity. The machine invented slave makers (teachers) to stupid to even know what they do. Dot that i. Do that home work.(Labour that you gave for free) assingment with a deadline( make me money faster slave bitch).

The machine has given us an abondance of track 6ers. To be exploited and used.

The machine has made it a crime to identify it, to creitisize it. To tell the truth.

So u have but too choiices bubble head, two buttons. Buy or Sell.

Take advantage of ther gift it gave you(stupid people) or fight it. Being a lazy ass fighting is too much work

#148 Kaganovich on 09.08.12 at 11:26 pm

145 Smoking Man

“To speel perfectly with gramor perfection is an act of obidiance. It is a statment of submission and giving control of your life to the machine.”

Smoking man, the drunken Derrida of this blog. Classic.

#149 Hoof-Hearted on 09.09.12 at 12:59 am

#145 Smoking Man on 09.08.12 at 10:42 pm

Anecdote why Spellink and Punkuasian! iz ,Impurtdtant

Prisoner is on Death Row.

Governor has power to issue a pardon

Message is sent to Warden

It read ” No Pardon possible ”

Prisoner is executed.

Oops.later they find out.the message should have read
“No, pardon possible “.

#150 AprilNewwest on 09.09.12 at 1:07 am

Garth’s posting are never boring but many of the bloggers are s000000 boring.

#151 truth hammer on 09.09.12 at 1:22 am

#121 Der……In Vancouver there is no such thing as too much taxation according to Shiity Hall……and they don’t seem too concerned about the effects on small business….in fact the Shitty Councillours seem to abhor the idea that these nasty business people are taking up space and have decided to rid the city of all such pests in favour of green spaces in which to navel gaze and enjoin in group masturbation while floating on a sea of property tax largesse that has flooded in over the past ten years and completely stupified the intellect of once reasonable people….which pays annual salaries of civil insiders of $350,000 to involve themselves in the cities political policy circle jerk parade.

If you know Vancouver..then you’ll know the grotty scene along Commercial drive where it appears than only derelicts thrive…but the property taxes on 1000 sq ft are now $38,000 not including the other two thirds of the triple net equation………like rent.

You tell me what kind of hippy crap and coffee a small business can sell to cover $38 grand a month and I tell you why there are more open holes opening up along every commercial avenue every month….for rent and for lease signs almost match the number of existing businesses on several downtown streets.

High taxes/rents should be the cure for high taxes and rents…..but easy credit has stretched the perception of reality and fooled many willing but naive to try and open a buisness….most fail quickly….my advice for the fools that do….don’t sign a lease…go month to month…and never commit to a secured loan or lease of any kind. This way when your eforts go south…you can walk without being on the hook for the duration of a brutal triple net lease contract.

#152 Metro Van Observer on 09.09.12 at 1:32 am

Writing from the Van area, I echo Garth’s point about people lacking disposable income.

Friends & colleagues here earning average working salaries ~$50-$60k have had their houses suck them dry of money. I see many sandwich/coffee/butcher shops struggling or shutting down. Even grocery stores are quiet and struggling.

The desperation to save a buck is reflected in people cross border shopping and enduring long line ups, sometimes rude border guards and obviously burning time/gas to go to/from the US. Milk pallets being raided within seconds at Costco stateside. Seriously, this is how stretched a lot of people are out here.

With so much of our economy dependent on consumer spending, this does not bode well for the Vancouver area economy going forward. And to think, we haven’t even seen an interest rate hike yet. A quarter point or two increase will probably cause a surprising amount of pain out here.

I just can’t see the economy here thriving when people have no $ in their pockets…the $ is being sucked dry by the houses.

#153 Tony on 09.09.12 at 2:07 am

Re: #114 triplenet on 09.08.12 at 4:11 pm

Direct result all forms of taxation will increase. Unemployment will rise as the world economies collapse.

#154 cynically on 09.09.12 at 2:08 am

#109 – You are Westernman again. Gotta agree with you about Canada’s importance. It’s all government subjectivism peddled over the years to the point where many, if not most Canadians, think we’re up there with the big boys.

#155 Across the Pond on 09.09.12 at 2:12 am

#99 Bend over on 09.08.12 at 2:32 pm

Anyone drive down Granville lately? I did last night, it was unreal to see all the For Sale signs. There was one section where 8 houses in a row all had signs. The party is definitely over in Van.

———————————————————

I saw that exact stretch of Granville a couple of weeks ago – isn’t it just ridiculous looking! It’s like a plague had hit that block and everyone was desperate to escape to safety.

#156 cynically on 09.09.12 at 2:30 am

#131 TurnerNation – Did you mention government promising an elected Senate – that would be like giving us uh … democracy? What would all the party hacks do for retirement?

#157 P & T S on 09.09.12 at 2:37 am

Garth – Flowers (and I note shoes too) work nicely for “Our Leader” too!

Seems you follow the words of the wise – “Happy Wife = Happy Life”!!

Happy anniversary from us both,

P&TS (on the move again . . . .)

#158 Devore on 09.09.12 at 3:48 am

#145 Smoking Man

To speel perfectly with gramor perfection is an act of obidiance. It is a statment of submission and giving control of your life to the machine.

Oh yeah, fight the power, misspell words! Is this the best of track sixer wisdom you have to offer us?

#159 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 09.09.12 at 6:08 am

Where can one get $1 – 2 million dollars? Well, from silver and silver miners of course! Have you seen the stock price appreciation for First Majestic? FR? Oh, my tiny silver nest egg is about to hatch and out comes the GOLDen goose.

“Reading that web site causes blindness. — Garth”

… and hairy palms…

#160 Ret on 09.09.12 at 8:59 am

TRT #133 & #134

The international student is a Permanent Resident. Permanent Residents get all of the same benefits as Canadian citizens.

The universities lead you to believe that every foreign student pays thousands more in fees than a Canadian student. They just don’t tell you how many pay those higher fees.

As a PR, an immigrant is entitled to a soft doc or liar loan CMHC mortgage like any other Canadian. I thought that the rules and the mortgage application processes were being tightened up? Yeah, right. Only a fool would believe any public official in this country.

Will that be 4 years of taxpayer backed Canada Student Loans with that order? Don’t be stupid and report those student rents to CRA or you’ll get a smaller student loan.

Stretch it to a Master’s program or simply switch programs and once you are here for 5 years, you are in baby!

You can stay here and game the system for the rest of your life. You will never even have to go through that ridiculous Canadian charade of a citizenship process.

#161 Herb on 09.09.12 at 9:44 am

#149 Hoof-Hearted,

wouldn’t bother Smoked Man – it wasn’t his execution.

#162 John S on 09.09.12 at 9:49 am

#123martin9999 on 09.08.12 at 5:37 pm
Garth do you think there is QE3 comming this week?

Absolutely … NO.

More promises for sure.

#163 Astute Poverty on 09.09.12 at 9:50 am

Why do people so readily believe in miracles?
For many, the regressive belief in superstitions and miracles is an escape from the hardships of life. Once trapped into irrationalism, they become more incapable of mastering reality. It is a vicious circle, like an addiction. They become vulnerable to exploitation by astrologers, godmen, dubious pseudo-psychologists, corrupt politicians, and the whole mega-industry of irrationalism.

sounds like real estate

#164 dradak1 on 09.09.12 at 9:58 am

“#69 Junius on 09.08.12 at 9:54 am ”

Right On!

#165 Ronaldo on 09.09.12 at 10:03 am

The collapsing middle class….

http://marketdailynews.com/2012/09/06/84-statistics-showing-the-collapse-of-the-middle-class-is-real/

#166 Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 10:12 am

Had a wonderful summer, one of my best.

2 questions, which will make me look stupid. I bank with 3 large banks. Does one bank know what the other is doing?

Also, having no relatives with the exception of my 2 sons. I don’t have enough faith with them at this time regarding financial acumen. I plan on making the TD Bank my executor. I think this might be dumb. But I have no one to ensure my estate is handled properly. Bank man is coming on the 17th. I won’t decide at that time. But will have to divulge my investments and property information to this fellow. Advice. My sons are in their 20’s and could be easily swayed. I have an excellent credit rating and no debts. But do not wish to put everything in one basket Comments.

#167 futureexpatriate on 09.09.12 at 10:23 am

“The flowers sure worked though.” – Garth

Too much info…

#168 John on 09.09.12 at 10:24 am

Devore responded to Smoking Man:

#145 Smoking Man

To speel perfectly with gramor perfection is an act of obidiance. It is a statment of submission and giving control of your life to the machine.

Devore: Oh yeah, fight the power, misspell words! Is this the best of track sixer wisdom you have to offer us?
——-

Smoking Man is bang on here. It’s all about priority…obedience above identity and free will is suicide. If you spell correctly because you want to be clear, communicate and give real value..fine. But the education system ( in large part) has not been about that.

If someone were to mispell in order to be a rebel, it’s still obedience… because the focus isn’t on being clear, communicating and offering real value. It’s about disobedience. Still making the machine a priority. There’s obviously no real value in that.

How does this apply to the Canadian real estate bubble? It’s about true literacy…financial literacy. When not offering value in the “financial” realm, and instead just feeding the machine and consuming ( following), how the hell can you recognize value? You can’t.

Obedience to the exclusion of identity ( a person acting out of his own will) means being an easy mark. It means thinking the “Bank of Canada” means the “Bank” “of Canada”, when it’s actually another salon in the casino of Goldman Sachs et al.

It means somehow missing that Mark the Carni’s travelling show is a CLUB. All the central bankers are from the Goldman Sachs club. Yeah. Really. They are.

It means thinking your mortgage is “official” and “serious” from the standpoint of reflecting true value and trustworthy institutions.

Now those are good obedient little spellers in the machine. The machine doesn’t care about how you met your “wife”…whether you bought the house because you were a beta male who couldn’t date and were afraid to b alone…and now follow the formula, getting “brownie points” from the “man” of the house, your boss and the government. Where you need two neutered “productivity managers” paying 30 years for a pressed cornflake box with cable and high speed internet.

The machine may not care about YOU ( nor should it) but it does care about literacy in its terms. To the letter.

There’s really deep wisdom on the spelling bee performance. It’s a marker…a signpost. And it’s really really low priority for a human life.

You unfortunately missed the point. Do you actually take the GO train? What do you think about that environment? Track 6? It’s actually real. A herd of good spellers in every way. Sounds like you’d fit in. Sounds like you want to.

#169 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 11:19 am

#166 Beach Girl – essentially you are talking about a Trust Will which needs to be prepared by a Lawyer, whereby, you appoint a corporate sponser (Bank), as the Trustee. You also need a Lawyer to prepare two additional documents, namely, A Power of Attorney, and Medical Power of Attorney; see no reason to be having a meeting with a banker, so be careful, but do recommend you select a bank as Trustee and Executor of the Estate.

#170 Daisy Mae on 09.09.12 at 11:23 am

#155 Across the Pond: “I saw that exact stretch of Granville a couple of weeks ago – isn’t it just ridiculous looking! It’s like a plague had hit that block and everyone was desperate to escape to safety.”

*********************

It generally means something is in the works — likely a developer showing interest.

#171 Hoof-Hearted on 09.09.12 at 11:26 am

155 Across the Pond on 09.09.12 at 2:12 am

#99 Bend over on 09.08.12 at 2:32 pm

Anyone drive down Granville lately? I did last night, it was unreal to see all the For Sale signs. There was one section where 8 houses in a row all had signs. The party is definitely over in Van.

———————————————————

I saw that exact stretch of Granville a couple of weeks ago – isn’t it just ridiculous looking! It’s like a plague had hit that block and everyone was desperate to escape to safety.

=================================

I wonder its its the same block I saw several months ago….West side of Granville..right?

#172 dradak1 on 09.09.12 at 11:36 am

#139 Julia on 09.08.12 at 7:50 pm

Bravo Julia – if you are single and mid age – give me a call :-). U R smart girl.

#173 NoName on 09.09.12 at 11:52 am

Interesting read

http://goo.gl/Dc8Gb

“There are a lot of people who think they’re good at handling their money but their behavior tells you otherwise,” says Gerri Walsh, president of the Finra Foundation. “Those people are going to be particularly difficult to reach and to educate because they don’t think they have a problem.”

#174 Smoking Man on 09.09.12 at 11:58 am

John wasent sure if your post was insulting or complimentary? But its insitefull.

I made a discovery last night during my daily ufo hunting in the gazibo while drinking my wine.

Somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd glass lies a sweet spot of thought. The area where the mind leaves reality and see’s with Kurts clearity.(Hearts of darkness). Its this area where I have anchord investment stratagies that worked. After the 4th glass arthritic pain gone, sleep posable is the area were my comments are replaced with

Deleted

#175 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 12:10 pm

#174 Smoking Man – “The horror! The horror! This is the Heart of Darkness, by Joseph Conrad.

#176 TurnerNation on 09.09.12 at 12:22 pm

#138Herb on 09.08.12 at 7:47 pm

Wanna bet the postman has two cars, full cable TV, all the electronic toys? Vacation last year? Why are his cards maxed out. He needs the Salvation Army and/or gamblers anonymous. Not our help.

We don’t need public unions. No government job mistreats or exploits its employees in any First or Second world country. All offer jobs for life. And who ever gets fired from a govt job (oops sorry Garth ;-) )

Private unions: we need them. The saying is: Companies get the union they deserve.
A tale of two airlines:

1. Westjet – profitable in every quarter save one or two since inception. Ever expanding. No unions. Mgmt took pilots’ vote before launching the new Westjet Regional airline (coming soon). They pay a dividend now. Profit share. Stock price is at 5 year highs.

2. Air Canada: constant battle with many unions. Horrible management, employees react. Hated by most Canadians. Stock price is $1. Barely afloat. Mgmt set to start a new outsourced lo-cost arm.

#177 TheWorstOne on 09.09.12 at 12:27 pm

“Good idea to take a break Garth. This blog is less fun lately. Pretty much like the country.”

When has the country been fun?

Maybe once…. the night Margaret Trudeau run away with, was it Mick Jagger? Besides this historic event, Canada gets as fun as Steve Harper’s sense of humor. BORING!

#178 Ronaldo on 09.09.12 at 12:29 pm

A good interview with Harvey Oberfeld and his take on the media and its reporting (or lack thereof) nowadays.

http://www.howestreet.com/audio/TWIM_SEP8_WEB.mp3

#179 Canadian Watchdog on 09.09.12 at 12:29 pm

$1.6 million Ritz Carlton condo, foreclosed.
$1.3 million Ritz Carlton condo, foreclosed.

Condos purchased in VIP bulk are now foreclosing in REO bulk.

#180 daystar on 09.09.12 at 12:41 pm

Good afternoon all.

Garth, thanks btw for your tireless efforts concerning financial stewardship for our fellow Canadians and for providing this fine forum free of charge. I do appreciate having a place to come to, to opinion my leanings as I am sure most do who participate with comments and I can’t help but think that you have indeed, helped a great number of people directly or indirectly within your lifetime with your efforts. Thanks.

#166 Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 10:12 am

I have some advice for you if you don’t mind (congradulations on your summer btw). Do banks know what their competitors are doing… yeah. Sure. Management will somewhat and as for your will, prepare your sons for what is to come. Teach them both how to be executors/inheritors of a will or at the very least, define what you are looking for from an executor. Tell them what is on your mind. If they aren’t ready to be executors (as well as inheritors), then make them ready because the alternative of choosing a bank as an executor of any will is to trust that a bank will execute your will to your satisfaction moreso than family and thats where simple wiki links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executor

… can spell out why trust is such an important issue in being an executor. The simple fact that real estate falls under the ownership of the executor until the will is executed should make one pause before using a bank as an executor, at least, for me. Banks from what I have read execute wills more slowly then the norm and charge a healthy fee for their services and risk to liabilities. The risk that I see or perceive is that if your inheritors die before your will is executed, depending on how the will is termed, the bank could technically end up with everything you own. I would seek a good lawyer’s advice on wills and hear the bank out just to round out your options but a bank is the last choice I would use as an executor, at least, with me and I base that choice specifically on the issues of cost and trust.

Ideally, the executor of any will is the one person you trust the most with money, competance and fairness in mind. We would think this goes without saying but here we are, weighing out the trust and faith in competance you have of your sons over a bank (in essence, a stranger). People generally live much longer than they expect to and all the while, their siblings mature so… I think you’ve got more time to deal with this than you realize? I trust you will use it wisely.

#181 TurnerNation on 09.09.12 at 12:45 pm

Welcome back to Beach Girl. I wonder if “new flame” has been enjoying that salt water pool. Hopefully floating face up not down… :-o

#182 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 1:07 pm

Well just had a good laugh for the day; no comment.

#183 jess on 09.09.12 at 1:12 pm

leased lifestyle …

http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/345900/if-he-wasnt-dead-id-kill-him-victims-savings-wiped-out-in-financial-scheme/
e.g 10 life insurance policies worth more than $2 million.

#184 Hoof-Hearted on 09.09.12 at 1:34 pm

#174 Smoking Man on 09.09.12 at 11:58 am

Have the 4th glass 1st…..the first glass 4th and 3 rd glass in order determined by the Ouija board spin. If you can hold your breath for 20 minutes all knowledge will appear before you.

#185 Keith in Calgary on 09.09.12 at 1:37 pm

How long does it take to sell a house ?

I’ve posted about this example before, and while one example does not validate a statistical database, it can influence many people.

I went to have breakfast with my father yesterday at his house here in Calgary…….his direct neighbour has had his property listed on and off 4 or 5 different times now since he bought it in 2009. He paid $377K……………and while he had it listed at $359K this past week……….I’d imagine he sold it for much less, just like everyone else, especially when you consider that the neighbour directly on the other side of my father’s hosue sold for $320K 4 months ago.

So, 3 years of trying, numerous price reductions, he’s facing a huge loss, and from what I know, probably bringing a cheque to the closing table……..RE….what a great investment !!!

Oh yeah…..there is a big yellow C/S sticker on the realtor’s shingle…….so it isn’t over yet.

#186 Linda Pearson on 09.09.12 at 1:39 pm

#166Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 10:12 am

Does one bank know what the other is doing?

Oh, Beach Girl you’ve given me a blast from the past and started a belly laugh!

Years ago, my first job out of high school was in the finance/investment department of a large insurance company right at the corner of King & Yonge. I was the most junior of the juniors. During an audit one summer, three very young articling accounting students spent about 3 weeks working beside my desk. Of course, all of us being young, we talked and joked a lot.

One of the guys told the story of a fellow just like himself who had been working on the audit at one of the big banks, also downtown. A senior auditor, pranking his assistant, told the youngster to go across the street to another one of the big banks and ask to borrow their ledgers. (Remember this was in the day when people still wrote things down in columns and used calculators to add figures.)

It was a Friday afternoon. The senior accountant at the 2nd bank was off golfing or at the cottage. His very junior assistant saw nothing amiss – and gave the ledgers to the chap who asked for them. When junior number one turned up back at his bank and placed the asked for ledgers on his boss’ desk, the poor senior apparently turned white as paper. The story goes that he didn’t even look in the books, just personally ran back across the street with the books in his arms to return them where they belonged.

As to nowadays, all those bankers see each other at industry shindigs, golf or play squash together, probably meet for lunch or at least eat at the next table. I’ll bet some of the really big player customers might figure in conversation from time to time, even though that’s a serious breach of confidentiality. And when staff changes employers, of course information goes with them. Despite oaths to protect privacy, it is human nature to remember and use helpful information in service to one’s employer.

With respect to your question about who to appoint as executor, perhaps you should speak with your lawyer. Maybe you can arrive at a specific fee to handle that task, well in advance of its being needed.

#187 Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 1:44 pm

Thank you for your advice everyone. This is starting to nag at me. Both sons are only 21 and 23.

Good educations, no tattos. Only the 21 year old is addicted to Hooter Girls and chicken wings in that order. And can be a bit of a viper. The oldest gambles way too much. No alcohol or drugs. His gambling partner is Mabel and she is a wealthy 71 year old. Have met her, she is said your mother is a small person. This old broad is elegant and tall.

I am aware of medical and powers of attorney, regarding illness. These bastards would put me in the cheapest old folks home imaginable. Not going to happen. Probably should just spend it all. Except you don’t know when you are going to snuff it.

Will meet with the bank man and mull over my options.

As for the flame, he pissed me off. My beautiful Jack Russell sleeps with me. He said do you need a chaperon? I said the dog has been here longer than you, and will probably last longer. Turfed him. He will be back.

Also my first legal ex is living under a bridge somewhere in Scarborough. Having shorted himself from all his money. And he had a lot. He is living on under 600 a month. I told that turd, give us the address from the bridge you reside under and we will send you a Xmas Card.

Normally I am not that nasty, but this retard had me in courts for years, fighting for custody, which the Judge refused to do. I told the Judge, let him have them. Support is cheaper and they were in the shitty teenager years.

Karma can certainly kick you in the ass. LOL. How do you like me now?

#188 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 1:49 pm

The following pertains to Real Estate, Investments, Mortgages, Economics, and other stuff; especially for those that will take issues with Garth, as in my opinion he has knowledge and experience that needs to be respected highly, and to attend one of his seminars is a gift that is worth leaving a donation at the door for him to buy more flowers for his babes.

” The highest form of ignorance is when you reject something you don’t know nothing about. ”

– Wayne Dyer

#189 Snowboid on 09.09.12 at 2:37 pm

#176 TurnerNation on 09.09.12 at 12:22 pm…

“We don’t need public unions. No government job mistreats or exploits its employees in any First or Second world country. All offer jobs for life…”

Apparently you never worked in the public sector.

But good on you for trying to maintain the neocon mythssion.

#190 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 2:38 pm

#187 Beach Girl – There is no need to worry about the old folks home or homecare for life, as there is a rare insurance policy that they don’t advertise, and is sold by a few with a 20 year pay provision. I put them on the hook for $37,000 a year for lifetime to protect my Estate assets that cost peanuts to buy my old folks home. Saw today that the RCMP is telling the public about massive identity theft in Canada, but I was the first to put a rider on my residence when it first came out which costs me about $35 a year; even my huge insurance broker didn’t know, so made him a few $$, as he had thousands of clients to contact. :)

#191 DON on 09.09.12 at 2:44 pm

#176 TurnerNation on 09.09.12 at 12:22 pm…

“We don’t need public unions. No government job mistreats or exploits its employees in any First or Second world country. All offer jobs for life…”

With all the political and crony appointments in the Public Sector Management ranks unions are definitely needed to safe guard public money. If a full audit was performed on the management ranks one would find unqualified management for sure. Not that this doesn’t happen in the unions. All should be looked at.

#192 Smoking Man on 09.09.12 at 2:59 pm

Welcome back beach chic. :)

#193 Toon Town Boomer on 09.09.12 at 2:59 pm

# 49 Leggendario wrote
I’ve spoken with one of the Realtors here in Saskatoon. He is not very optimistic about the housing market right now. He told me that the Market has totally slowed down compare to 2 years ago.

Can you name that Realtor? It’s good when the ones that speak the truth get recognized because they are far & few between. Might be the realtor I would choose when the time is right to buy.

#194 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 3:16 pm

#186 Linda Pearson – I spent a year with a huge auditing firm to save some money before I entered Grad School, and audited the biggest corporations in Canada such as Union Carbide, and a huge Insurance Company, and many more for 1 year. What you were told is a fairytale, so you were conned, as this could not and did not happen – trust me – as know better!

#195 Daniel on 09.09.12 at 3:45 pm

Everything’s OK out west, see?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/canadian-real-estate-sector-looks-bright-dbrs/article4520447/

#196 aaci-home dog on 09.09.12 at 3:45 pm

Beach girl…I would recommend seeing a Notary to help you organize your affairs. Possibly better for a number of reasons.

#197 Victoria Tea Party on 09.09.12 at 4:00 pm

#137 LABOURS’ MOVES A FUTILE EFFORT SO FAR…

Right.

The labour movement in the industrial West has been a force for change.

Good change and bad change.

Nothing is pure when it comes to human behaviour and its underlying motives.

In Canada and the US the “movement”, as union members like to call themselves, started unravelling about 35 years ago.

It began with their private sector members simply because the unions’ head weenies could not see what was coming, a severe change to the world economic order necessitiated by too much debt accumulation and other government/sovereign-level fiscal/monetary incompetencies which we’re ALL thoroughly enjoying living through at the present time! Honest!

In the public sector the “movement” has also been fairly well shagged over the last three decades in BC, for sure, and more to come in the next few months since government natural gas resource royalties are in the tank here.

So, what to be done with a “movement” that has played a vital role in helping to assist (pressure) governments in the creation of a new post-WW2 middle class?

Well, probably nothing in its present context, since that class had no future to begin with. It was an artifice to keep the industrial wheels turning between wars.

But its fate was sealed forever, when the economic order shifted from industrial expansion to consumption expansion.

Simply, there is NO FUTURE LEFT TO LOOK FORWARD TO when one depends on selling and buying cheap crap to one another!

A shame to be sure.

HOWEVER

But if the “movement” wished to revive, perhaps it could shift its withered guns to less fallow fields of economic indolence and use union dues to help enrich struggling small businesses through bond sales or equity issuance. Call that shareholder responsiblity.

Perhaps it could lobby government for fewer, not more, so-called benefits.

In other words if this rapacious and largely irrelevant “movement” could proceed through life wearing a pair of soft economic slippers rather than hob-nailed jackboots (always demanding more for its members), then maybe some corners could be turned.
The labour movment MUST be more that a group of industrious whiners and kvetcherers. Especially now.

THE BIG PICTURE WILL STILL BE GLUM

BUT in the very large economic picture it’ll be endless government fiddling of books and printing of so-called money that will keep things going.

All THAT does is to eviscerate further this busted system until a few elites have it all and the ROS (rest of us) have naught.

1917 revisited

I’m reading a book about life in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg, Russia) in 1917, the year the Bolsehvik Revolution took over Mother Russia thus creating subsequent decades of utter despair for billions of people around the world.

Victims included unionized fellow travellers, hundreDs of whom died on picket lines to bring about world socialism, another monstrous human-created obscenity.

Will some of those 1917 Petrograd events, riots and civil war, be soon be duplicated in a decaying US city near you?

Read your history, because it is generally that stranger that keeps “knocking” on your door (it’s your troubled conscience, actually) and pissing you off when all you want to do is suck back on another sunny-day lattee while you wait for your next EI cheque.

#198 Westernman on 09.09.12 at 4:05 pm

# 196,
You recommend Beach Girl seeing a Notary to get her affairs in order…
I recommend she see a psychiatrist to get her affairs in order…

#199 TurnerNation on 09.09.12 at 4:08 pm

Comrade Herbie: you shall be put in charge of the Bread Line quotas. Down with the decadence of the bourgeois.

#200 Dirty old man on 09.09.12 at 4:10 pm

#187 Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 1:44 pm

You sound hot !

#201 deja view? on 09.09.12 at 4:29 pm

If there was one time in particular that told me no one can predict trends (with any certainty), it was when rates went north of 15% in 1981 and ‘every expert’ was bleating .. “we will NEVER see single digits EVER AGAIN.”
When rates eventually tumbled to 4% and a little dump on Vancouver’s east side was selling for well over a million, everyone said.. I knew that! It was bound to happen.
Confucius say.. he who throw enough darts in every direction, eventually hit bull’s eye.

#202 jess on 09.09.12 at 4:52 pm

postpaid bifurcated collateralized variable share forward ..say what?

By Matt Levine
http://dealbreaker.com/2012/09/spoilsport-banking-regulators-ruin-another-derivative-that-was-too-beautiful-to-live/:

=========
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/odious-debt.asp#axzz260XimydT

#203 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 5:09 pm

The really hot babes are shy and wear glasses, as they are not wanted, so would take a good body look, and buy a coffee and a donut for them at Tims. Never ever overlook a good looking woman who is in hiding, and have a nice conversation, as she will have a brain, and at the end of the night she will be all yours, so saddle up as could become the best ride of your life.

#204 betamax on 09.09.12 at 5:28 pm

#168 John: “There’s really deep wisdom on the spelling bee performance. It’s a marker…a signpost.”

LOL. Oh, it’s deep alright. Thanks for the obsequious call for unity. It’s right up there with the non-conformist oath:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTwV3vG73cU

#205 Einzatgruppen kanada on 09.09.12 at 5:29 pm

1 Bloor update

Finally the hoist crane is in this weekend. She’s ready to go up.

#206 Blasé on 09.09.12 at 6:17 pm

anyone have any numbers on Calgary? I hear the market is still going strong, but I’m dubious about that.

#207 Blasé on 09.09.12 at 6:28 pm

beach girl,

why wouldn’t the judge give you custody? you must have been an awful mother for a Canadian judge to deny you custody.

#208 Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 6:35 pm

#198 Westernman on 09.09.12 at 4:05 pm

# 196,
You recommend Beach Girl seeing a Notary to get her affairs in order…
I recommend she see a psychiatrist to get her affairs in order…

_____

If you have gone to one, I’d rather not. You are probably a real pussy magnet, sitting in your lounger with 90 cats. Go scratch your hairy bean bag (chair) and enjoy the rest of your night, Hans Solo.

Garth, he started it. and he is probably finishing it right now. He insulted me first.

#209 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 6:38 pm

Ok am going to explain with knowledge how an audit is done on a huge corporation, or even a small one. The audit is split with teams under a Senior Partner who will never show up – ever! The team goes in for the audit, and usually will just be with a senior student with a few low level peeps to check this and that, and on a rare occasion a Junior Partner might attend who is a potential Partner.

It is all a scam as the fees mean everything, as spent a year with this all, and discovered a huge fraud, and would love to tell you the story, but will not. So I was the one who did the math that $millions was missing, so my team was sent back to measure the inventory, and my figures were correct.

Ok, so the Senior Partner became involved with this huge company to cover it all up, and was called into his office, as he said you must leave, and just shutup, as will document UIC for you, and was fine with me, as was off to Grad School with extra money to spend as the fix was in, and he said there will be no problem.

#210 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.09.12 at 6:52 pm

Musings from Mildred

As You Slide Down the Banister of Life Towards 2013 — Remember:

1. Jim Baker and Jimmy Swaggert have written an impressive new book. It’s called … ‘Ministers Do More Than Lay People’

2. Transvestite: A guy who likes to eat, drink and be Mary.

3. The difference between the Pope and your boss, the Pope only expects you to kiss his ring.

4. My mind works like lightning, one brilliant Flash and it is gone.

5. The only time the world beats a path to Your door is if you’re in the bathroom.

6. I hate sex in the movies. Tried it once. The seat folded up, the drink spilled and that ice, well, it really chilled the mood.

7. It used to be only death and taxes, Now, of course, there’s shipping and handling, too.

8. A husband is someone who, after taking the trash out, gives the impression that he just cleaned the whole house.

9. My next house will have no kitchen – just vending machines and a large trash can.

10. Definition of a teenager? God’s punishment … for enjoying sex.

Thought for the day: Be who you are and say what you feel … because those that matter… don’t mind … and those that mind …don’t matter!
*
#166 Beach Girl — “I don’t have enough faith with them at this time regarding financial acumen. I plan on making the TD Bank my executor. I think this might be dumb. But I have no one to ensure my estate is handled properly. Bank man is coming on the 17th. I won’t decide at that time.”

Nice to see you back! FWIW Beach Girl, if in doubt ask the bank person if you could leave your estate, divided a few ways, to charity. Might not be a bad idea to have a bank as the Executor — they will take their slice of the pie anyway.

Let your sons know they are responsible for themselves, that they are adults and to live their lives accordingly. Teaching them to max out their TFSAs each year would be a good start, and don’t bother with RSPs.

#211 Rob on 09.09.12 at 7:23 pm

Fluers du mal WTF

#212 John on 09.09.12 at 7:48 pm

Betamax wrote:

#168 John: “There’s really deep wisdom on the spelling bee performance. It’s a marker…a signpost.”

“LOL. Oh, it’s deep alright. Thanks for the obsequious call for unity. It’s right up there with the non-conformist oath:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTwV3vG73cU
—————

Drop unity then…look at the big picture and where an ordinary individual fits in. Anything deeper than that?

It’s more important than sniping for irrelevant potshots. What’s your take on the Canadian real estate bubble. It’s pretty much in everyone’s face…a mirror.

Non-conformist to what? Are you interested in the “what”? That’s a lower order priority for most of us…which is how we got to where we are.

I’d say “it is what it is” and can back it up…what do you say? Offer some value.

The solution is a call for unity only in the context of self-responsible individuals. “Unity” means nothing without that…just populism.

Sounds like you didn’t get it.

#213 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.09.12 at 8:12 pm


ChinaGold Or they realize the Chinese govt. is introducing a new gold-backed currency soon; Hungary following Iceland’s lead; Hedge Funds Exit stage right; Too Big For Jail and Image; 2:00:52 doc. The Koch brothers exposed; Speculating Banks doing well; Rising Food Prices Still increasing; The Euro like the Cdn. penny, is all but extinct. Eat lard; US Debt Collectors cash in on student loans.
*
Smoking Man — Leaderless resistance? The US and Iran are signatories to the NNPT; Israel is not; Five Firefox add-ons for improvement; Obomba and CISPA Seize the day or seize the ‘net? Plus ACLU and TPP; Unveiled New weapon; 28:01 clip Coup d’Etat via genocide, uprisings, Monsanto superbug, etc. and 1:26:21 doc. Farmageddon; Judges are becoming whackjobs, too full of themselves; Flight 93 didn’t crash, it exploded in mid-air; Top Ten Foods with high fructose corn syrup; Scott’s Miracle-Gro “And of course, none of the executives who signed off on these practices goes to jail.” wrh.com.

#214 AGIC on 09.09.12 at 9:06 pm

#203 Old Dirty Man on 09.09.12 at 5:09 pm

“…at the end of the night she will be all yours, so saddle up as could become the best ride…”
Dream-on, ODM, because “…she has a brain.”

#215 Old Man on 09.09.12 at 9:21 pm

What concerns me the most in Canada as Caesar took off the leash for pitbull called John Baird to trash Iran with a closure of all the Embassy access for students in Canada; about 500 thousand Iran citizens, and all the potential Real Estate investors who can kiss off a Visa. Iran is not even Arab, as they are Persians, so this is in indeed a very queer situation lol.

#216 Beach Girl on 09.09.12 at 10:13 pm

#207 Blasé on 09.09.12 at 6:28 pm

beach girl,

why wouldn’t the judge give you custody? you must have been an awful mother for a Canadian judge to deny you custody.

_____

I never lost custody of my children. I just didn’t see the point of losing $50,000 in a senseless court battle. I knew they would return. Children and exs are like boomerangs, unless you get lucky. LOL.

The ex-turd actually sued some poor guy with a Cerebral Palsy child. Was married at the time to this pencil headed geek. I said how could you sue this man for 5,000, look at his life. Bad karma. We didn’t need the money, he hounded that guy and lost.

The Judge did not want to give him custody. I said take them.

They came back anyway. I figured why fight a losing battle.

I know what fights to pick.

Did I visit every other weekend and Wednesdays. NO. that’s a mugs game. If you don’t want me, I can handle that.

Had a great year, then too.

#217 Westernman on 09.09.12 at 10:19 pm

Beach Girl @ # 208,
I see I hit a nerve …

#218 Ticsee on 09.10.12 at 12:04 am

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/sale-american-dream/

:(

#219 Beach Girl on 09.10.12 at 12:54 am

#217 Westernman on 09.09.12 at 10:19 pm

Beach Girl @ # 208,
I see I hit a nerve …

_____

Speaking of nerves, you probably have carpal tunnel by now. MEOW.

#220 gracie on 09.10.12 at 9:19 am

Please, any ideas on jobs or careers for those mails starting over or rewire and 40.

Thanks,

#221 gracie on 09.10.12 at 9:20 am

please change mails to males

#222 Westernman on 09.10.12 at 6:45 pm

Beach Girl @ # 219,
Your only point of reference seems to be some kind of degenerate psychotic filth, doesn’t it?
What a sad, twisted pathetic creature you are…

#223 KG on 09.10.12 at 9:39 pm

how come flowers of evil work ?