What were we thinking?

On a week when stock markets made new highs, realtors made new lows. How much more evidence do we need that the l-o-n-g era of the house is finally coming to a serious pause, if not an end?

Yesterday this pathetic blog brought you the latest from Vancouver, where real estate turned into an addiction, then a disease. (Hours ago I sat with a newly-married couple who have lived in VanCity their whole lives, and now can’t wait to get out. They’ve both taken jobs in Ontario. “Finally,” she said, “we can get away from the tensions, the pissed-off people who can’t afford houses and the horrible attitude. Maybe even get a home.”)

Everywhere else, including mighty and godless Toronto, is not immune. The latest numbers paint an ugly little picture of the months to come. In August sales of all properties romped lower 12.5%. Sales of detached homes tanked 19%. And deals for condos limped in 22% worse. This is significant, since mortgage rates haven’t budged from near all-time lows and virgins can still get 95% financing. All that’s changed is the death of the 30-year amortization and looming changes to bank lending set to take effect next month.

So whazzup?

Well, the flip side of crashing sales is soaring prices. So while a fifth fewer detached homes are changing hands in 416, the average price is up 15% in a year (but down $50,000 in one month and a whopping $90,000 since the Spring). The simple fact is the average family can’t afford a $760,000 house, given swampy salaries, tepid job growth and even a minor tweaking in mortgage rules. Folks are simply bummed out on debt.

That was underscored by a new report a few hours ago from Moody’s Analytics, cheerily titled “Storm Clouds Gather Around Canadian Consumer Credit.” The big news is no news – Canada’s economy escaped the crap many other countries are mired in because consumers went nuts and borrowed excessively. As you know, debt-to-income ratios are at 150%, about where the US sat just before it blew up. It means all those HELOCs, mortgages, car loans and Home Depot credit cards kept people busy spending money they didn’t have, but figured they could earn later.

So this is later. The economy’s slowing, not growing. Job creation has largely fizzled. Interest rates will rise next year (says TD Bank), and we already know that F & the Peckerettes have launched the War on the House. Now families have this honking pile of indebtedness and no quick way to reduce it. Real estate prices are still absurd, so is it any wonder the buying’s stopped?

This was so inevitable. As the GTA hit the apex of absurdity in March and April (remember the bidding wars I took you into?), the tipping point was passed. Sales and prices have declined every month since then, even according to the suspect numbers the real estate cartel turns out. Now that the momentum is waning, the inevitable price correction begins. If you doubt that, look at Vancouver. It’s the future. Nobody gets out of this unscathed.

Now, what did I say about higher interest rates? Didn’t the Bank of Canada just leave them untouched for the umpteenth time?

You bet, but Mark Carney also hinted strongly that the “withdrawal of monetary stimulus”, which is just as painful as it sounds, is coming. The smooth devil is still hot to normalize rates so people will quit borrowing. If they don’t, the credit bubble inflates further and the eventual collapse will be more destructive. He also agrees with what Moody’s is saying – any external shock, like surprises out of Europe or America – could have big results. “The situation that Canada faces is much riskier than in 2007-2008 when the first global financial crisis occurred,” says Moody’s economist Mark Hopkins. Yikes.

But compared to 2008, I’ll bet most people you know have (a) a bigger mortgage, (b) a nicer houses and (c) less money. Investment levels have declined. Financial markets have been somewhat deserted. RRSP contributions have dried up. Savings are lower. But consumption and real estate prices have soared.

Let me put this in highly technical economic terms: if nasty happens, we’re screwed.

This is entirely of our own making. While house prices were receding in most of the industrialized world, including Britain and America, they were bloating here. The increase was financed by debt, not income.

What were we thinking? That we’re special, like snowflakes?

There’s no argument left for having the bulk of your net worth in a house. That’s risky and myopic. The future belongs to the liquid, not the obese.

160 comments ↓

#1 gumby on 09.06.12 at 10:00 pm

ahhha typical trailer folk getting married at mcpukes ! furrst

#2 Hoof - Hearted on 09.06.12 at 10:00 pm

Fiiirrrsssszzzzzzzzzztttt!

#3 Pre Dator on 09.06.12 at 10:02 pm

I. Cannot. Make. A. Decision. Without. Parental. Or. Peer. Approval.

I. Am. Canadian.

#4 Calgaryillusion on 09.06.12 at 10:04 pm

A few weeks back you said nasty was impossible (central bankers had it all under control)?

Link. — Garth

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.06.12 at 10:04 pm

“special, like snowflakes”

Sounds like the title of a future Rob Ford biography.

(“The future belongs to the liquid, not the obese” is the alternate title)

#6 Trader on 09.06.12 at 10:06 pm

Ahhh, but the stats lie when it comes to B.C. All that underground cash generated by BC Bud… Some stoned statician figures it is larger than forestry and mining combined in this province. That smoke you see, isn’t the crash!

#7 FTP - First Time Poster on 09.06.12 at 10:18 pm

“Let me put this in highly technical economic terms: if nasty happens, we’re screwed.”

Not if Garth, just when. There are too many unknowns in the world to rationally explain away maxing out credit like there is no tomorrow. I make damn good coin, have a couple grand in debt that will be paid off before Xmas and lots of RRSP’s, TFSA’s and RESP’s. My wife drives a 13yr old vehicle that now needs replacing and I’m fretting over dropping $45K even though I know the payments arent an issue.

I can’t count the number of people we know who are maxed out, underwater and praying for a miracle. It’s truly sad to see the stress they have put themselves under just to keep up appearances.

#8 Foggy on 09.06.12 at 10:23 pm

I’ve been following homes in the Beaches central area – a quadrant enclosed by Woodbine, Kingston Rd, Vic Park, and the beach itself. This area always has around 20—> 30 listings. It had 10 last week and 14 now. All relists or old listings. There is nothing new being added for months now. People are staying put. Are they stubbornly waiting for some “upward correction”? Have followed this area for last 3 years and never seen a stall like this.

http://guava.ca/xml/map-custom.html?M4E=on&M5E=on&M4L=on

#9 Baron von Munchouses on 09.06.12 at 10:32 pm

All you Vancouver haters dissin’ my town. It’s a nice place. Why you be so grumpy? :(

#10 Marco from Van on 09.06.12 at 10:32 pm

This post needs to:
A) be framed as a reminder to the next generation when a future boom (I hope) stimulates their hormones; and
B) taken along to any prospective house purchase as a sanity balancer to the inevitable marketing onslaught by those who want to keep the party going (banks, mortgage brokers, realtors etc.)

Words of wisdom like these rarely come at no cost! Heed them…

#11 Victor on 09.06.12 at 10:35 pm

Doors shutting on first-time buyers

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/doors-shutting-on-first-time-buyers/article4523084/

The Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have cooled rapidly in the wake of Ottawa’s latest bid to stop a bubble, with many first-time buyers knocked out of the running.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty put the July 9 changes into effect to curb growing mortgage debt levels and take some steam out of house prices. Among other things, the new rules cut the maximum length of insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.

The changes have sparked a debate in Canada. Some industry players and economists worry that the impact will be so widespread and long-lasting that they want Mr. Flaherty to consider rolling some of them back. But with prices that some still deem overvalued and new fears over consumer debt, others say the changes aren’t enough and must be followed by a hike in rates.

Among the latter is Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander, who estimates that national home prices are 10 to 15 per cent too high.

#12 DON on 09.06.12 at 10:37 pm

I remember Garth recently stated that most condo and home owners expect things to pick up this fall.

I heard it today – coworkers who do not read the news expect the market to pick up soon as people always buy in the fall season. Person is trying to sell the condo to buy a house. It’s a shame people religiously avoid the news as it conflicts with their beliefs.

I would rather be aware of the possibilities in order to act appropriately, but to each their own.

Hard to believe some folks are still ill informed by choice.

#13 Aaron - Melbourne on 09.06.12 at 10:42 pm

Thought for the day:

Things used to be priced in money because it was scarce.

Seems these days things are priced in debt, which is abundant.

#14 prairieperson on 09.06.12 at 10:44 pm

Downsized about 2.5 years ago. A year too soon. Bought half the house. Wish I’d downsized into a rental. But prices were still heading skyward. Two friends of mine have had their houses for sale for the last six months. Nary an offer. Not one. No sir. Haven’t moved their prices down. They don’t have to move. They would like to move. That’s what makes prices sticky. They want to get “what their houses are worth”. As if there was some dollar figure to which they are entitled. To move prices down, there need to be sellers who have to sell (are motivated as they say) and there have to be enough of them to have an effect. Sold too early. Bought to early. Sigh. At least with the new house when the price drops, it is less dollars than the original.

#15 2centsCdn on 09.06.12 at 10:44 pm

Such a significant photo …… see what happens to people with no self discipline! ……. easy fast food like easy to get cheap money is not good for us. Quick gratification people who can’t resist always eventually pay the price. Hogs get slaughtered.

#16 Nigerian Banker on 09.06.12 at 10:46 pm

Commerce in action:

NOTE: Smoking Man……make sure your “Depends” are on, the wheelchair brake is engaged, and your drool doesn’t flood the rubber room.

————————————————

Advert for Siemens dishwasher ……

Across Germany ’s northern-most border with Denmark you’ll find an incredible superstore called Fleggaard. There, you can buy everything you need – tubs of gummi bears, cases of wine, industrial strength dishwashing soap – at prices 30% cheaper than you’ll find in Denmark. It is Denmark ‘s Costco, packaged as a German loophole. This is their advertisement!

You’d be hard-pressed to find a man in Denmark who hasn’t seen and fallen in love with this commercial. It was geared strictly to men. The ad is real!

http://www.m2film.dk/fleggaard/trailer2.swf

#17 DonDWest on 09.06.12 at 10:46 pm

“The situation that Canada faces is much riskier than in 2007-2008 when the first global financial crisis occurred.”

“Let me put this in highly technical economic terms: if nasty happens, we’re screwed.”

And here I was playing Battlestar Galactica, musical “The Apocalypse” in the background, but Garth isn’t a closet doomer. Carry on. . .

#18 Fabrega on 09.06.12 at 10:49 pm

Until interest rates begin to raise -I do not see it happening any time soon – nothing, zero, nada is going to happen.

#19 disciple on 09.06.12 at 10:51 pm

Pauline Marois is played by the same actor that played Princess Diana. Her husband Claude Blanchet and David La Haye of Montreal are Siegried and Roy.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/3868838869/

Does nobody in Quebec read this comments section?

#20 Nodebt on 09.06.12 at 10:51 pm

Hi Garth, I need a fee based investor to help me out! I don’t have the time or the brains to do it myself! Is there anyone in bc u know about? That is as good as you! Thanks

#21 disciple on 09.06.12 at 10:53 pm

SiegFried and Roy, sorry, and wrong photo:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/3868847555/

#22 Sebee on 09.06.12 at 10:53 pm

Like holy halos the arches glow upon this union. Now Royale with cheese for everyone!

This debt will kill us, no doubt. When the deleveraging starts, Canada is royally screwed. With cheese.

#23 Basil Fawlty on 09.06.12 at 10:56 pm

Won’t increasing interest rates and reduced monetary stimulus, in the the face of ZIRP and QE3 in the USA, put upward pressure on the CDN $ and choke economic growth?
Who trained these guys?

#24 TakingStock on 09.06.12 at 10:57 pm

Liar Loans. Kick backs from the banks for down payments. Ultra low mortgage rates. 40 Yr amortizations. HELOCS handed out like candy by the bankers. Sky high house prices.

Who is responsible for this real estate mess. Not the boomers and not their kids. If the banks and our government had not changed the rules, house prices would not have increased to ridiculous levels. Many purchasers would not have been able to qualify to borrow that much money.

If you open the cookie jar everyone wants one.

So now everyone suffers but the ones responsible for the mess.

#25 Ralph Cramdown on 09.06.12 at 11:06 pm

Two friends of mine have had their houses for sale for the last six months. Nary an offer. […] Haven’t moved their prices down. They don’t have to move. […] To move prices down, there need to be sellers who have to sell (are motivated as they say) and there have to be enough of them to have an effect.

One motivated seller is enough to have an effect, because that immediately becomes the new latest comparable price on the MLS, and in a slow market, that’s what’s going to set the bar for all the buyers.

I was thinking about this today while reading the latest from Vancouver. The Board says properties are selling in about two months, and there’s about ten months of inventory. Can we create a new metric, “Percent serious sellers,” which in this case would be 20%? I guess 80 percent of Vancouver’s listed inventory is just people who might want to sell, at the right price, rather than needing to sell, which REBGV says they could do in 60 days if they were serious.

#26 Doom on 09.06.12 at 11:17 pm

Can we elect Bill Clinton to lead Canada?

#27 Smoking Man on 09.06.12 at 11:19 pm

#16 Nigerian Banker on 09.06.12 at 10:46 pm

Nice clip. as the 20 somethings approach the plane I drifted and started to do a personal count.

My most successful son, up to number 76 was barging.

I just humbly said me, just one (art of lieing)

76 is about my annual number. so I Pay big deal. The bald head the rotting teeth, the massive beer belly makes charm challenging. I adapt as I always have.

Pay to play, never the same one twice. You so they go away.

Smiling tonight bubble heads. Heather was amazing. bye heather.

#28 JR on 09.06.12 at 11:19 pm

This is a comment from a recent globe & mail article..
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/doors-shutting-on-first-time-buyers/article4523084/comments/
——————————————————–
I’m a Realtor, an elected official and had lunch with a banker yesterday.

The changes in qualification and to line of credit ratios appear benign but will actually have a big effect in debt driven consumer markets such as Vancouver lower mainland.

Equity mortgages are basically dead. You must have income to support the mortgage and show where the income is originating via your tax form. Offshore investors slapping down 50% no questions asked are finished unless they show their declared income … not something they like to do.

Downsizing boomers, we are now in the first wave, who planned on cashing in the home, putting some money aside for income and taking out a little mortgage for new townhouse or condo. are in trouble. Their retirement income will not qualify for a mortgage. I had three listings cancel last month, when these changes were announced, by boomers planning to downsize.

Small business is screwed because they now have to show their tax declared income, not their claimed income as was the practice here in BC.

Small builders, likewise. They can no longer get debt financing to start a new project based upon the equity in an existing build. They have to show income.

The rest of Canada may not understand that in BC, credit unions were giving out $350,000 mortgages for a pulse during the peak in 2006. Zero down, intent to pay based upon a claimed income.

The drug money now must show income. A big whack down is no longer sufficient.

Now throw in LOC ratio down from 80% to 65% and the BC practice of using your house equity as an auto teller is suddenly stifled.

Subtle changes but big impacts over the next year.
—————————————————

Garth has been right the whole time

#29 Devore on 09.06.12 at 11:23 pm

#6 Trader

And unless everyone’s buying houses with cash, you now have to document your income to get a mortgage.

#30 AprilNewwest on 09.06.12 at 11:23 pm

#11- The people who want the bank changes rolled back are no doubt in the RE business and 10/15 per cent over valued is putting it mildly more like 40 to 60 per cent over valued.

#31 Smoking Man on 09.06.12 at 11:24 pm

Gartho something missing in your take.

ECB can talk all day long.

Square Heads. They need to say yes.

O Gartho

#32 AprilNewwest on 09.06.12 at 11:27 pm

#18 – It’s already happening …. Where have you been…….

#33 Smoking Man on 09.06.12 at 11:29 pm

DELETED

#34 Gord In Vancouver on 09.06.12 at 11:39 pm

Excellent post, Garth.

#35 A Yank in BC on 09.06.12 at 11:44 pm

Garth,
I’m a believer. You sold me a long time ago. But given the likelyhood of a bursting bubble with it’s domino effects, why does the CDN dollar continue to be so strong?

#36 Molly on 09.06.12 at 11:48 pm

My brother is somehow gettin approved for a 400 g mortgage, he just started working as a lineman for 18 dollars an hour, after he finishes all his tickets (about 4 years) he will be making good money as a journeyman, however the bank is giving him this loan cuz the chic they talked to wrote him down for working in this field for 10 years! This is so shady Garth, I wish the banks would save him from his own greed, he has 2 kids and a wife that need a future. We live in lethbridge AB so 400 g buys you a nice house, when I asked why he was doing this now as he can’t afford it and it’s just going to go down in value he responded “cuz I want it”, classic entitled response of our my generation, oh and I’m 3 years younger then him! Just though I’d share…. Were doomed or I guess he is .

#37 PoorgEoisie on 09.06.12 at 11:52 pm

#14
There are plenty of people who put down payments on new homes by way of HELOC, probably a consequence of the era of the “unconditional offer”. Check out all the pics on real estate sites of empty houses, these people have to sell. Cue the nasty crash… The nasty crash

#38 dd on 09.06.12 at 11:55 pm

You bet, but Mark Carney also hinted strongly that the “withdrawal of monetary stimulus”, …

Hinted stronly – jaw boning the market for 3!years Just do it Carney. A nation is made via saving investing and production. Not spending and debt. Be the first mover for once. Enough with the BS.

#39 Dude from Richmond on 09.07.12 at 12:09 am

Houses in Richmond are build on sand and on a flood-plane. What happens when there is a Tsunami?

#40 50% correction predictor on 09.07.12 at 12:11 am

any external shock, like surprises out of Europe or America – could have big results.

___________________________

External shock?

No Surprise, no If, no When:

Sovereign debt crisis (fire works) is coming to a theater near you! Hint: look south.

Time: this fall.

End result: soaring bond yields, unemployment.

You have max. two months to prepare.

#41 penpal on 09.07.12 at 12:34 am

@ # 18 Fabrega

Try opening your eyes retard.

#42 Harman on 09.07.12 at 12:36 am

They can’t move up interest rates in Canada, if they do the Canadian dollar will blow past the value of the US dollar. As it is all but certain that another round of stimulus via QE3 is coming. This is going to cause inflation, the dollar index will fall back to the mid 70’s if not lower depending on what other central banks around the world do… I highly doubt that the Canadian central bank is brave enough to defy the international banking cartel by raising rates before the US… Mario Dragini just annouced unlimited bond buying!!!! Talk about a stimulus…

#43 Keith in Calgary on 09.07.12 at 12:39 am

Picked up my wife after work today.

One of her colleagues she works with just lost her job. Not the “part time temporary position” she holds with a public health department that expires in a few more months (where she currently works but 2 days a week) rather it’s the other part time contract position she has been holding down that just ran out, and her contract did not get renewed. She got the news yesterday.

Now here’s the problem………….I posted about her on this blog before. Mid 20’s medical professional, new immigrant, no permanent job since landing here, and she just bought a house 3-4 months ago for $350K +/- with 5% down. Her new hubby is a career student……..and as we all know, health care cutbacks are everywhere, not only in the job market (where there is nothing currently available for her occupation in Calgary) but also in the insurers payments and coverages for supplementary benefits of the services her field provides.

Needless to say, she is utterly freaking out………

#44 Humpty Dumpty on 09.07.12 at 12:39 am

Screwed is an understatement G….

These 3 charts clearly indicate what were headed for…

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/canadian-housing-bubble-full-mania-canada-household-debt-surpasses-us-household-debt-canada-real-estate/

Get ready to reap the whirlwind…..

#45 Phil Indablanque on 09.07.12 at 12:41 am

#7 FTP “I’m fretting over dropping $45K “….

2 words ….. used cars. I believe Mr Turner has pointed out in the past that one of the types of “assets” that will deflate is the automobile. Look around, you can probably find a nice realtor that will sell you their fancy shiney beemer and will have taken the 40% depreciation hit already. 45 grand is alot to pay for something that begins to self destruct as soon as you start using it. But then again, I fix my own cars, even the fancy quattro one.

#46 Freedom First on 09.07.12 at 12:48 am

Garth, nasty post today! ……Loved it:)……reminded me of the video on your blog yesterday of that little girl giving her teacher a good kick where he deserved it! Only today it is the materialistic Canadian house worshiping house horny over indulging consumer bingeing heavily indebted debt slaves keep up with the Jones types being denutted. Can’t say that you, the Americans, the Japanese, the Europeans, etc., didn’t try to warn them. This is going to be ugly.

#47 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.07.12 at 1:07 am


“Folks are simply bummed out on debt. So whazzup? F & the Peckerettes have launched the War on the House. This was so inevitable. It’s the future. Nobody gets out of this unscathed.” — Or, nobody gets outta here alive. Haven’t seen the inside of a McDonald’s for years now. Are they in better shape than RE?

“The smooth devil is still hot . . .” — Like this?
*
Car Detailing may cost thousands of jobs; Vacuum Cleaners Sucking in profits; Productivity up in autos. but Young and Unemployed in LA? Not getting any easier, Slow recovery in jobs, whereas Wall St. penalties are a joke; 2013 Figured we were already in a crisis; Equalization Payments US and Greek debt — tied in 2021? Consumer Comfort Discontent We’re all malcontents; French unemployment rising; Gun sales up; German m$m ticked off; RE Crash Part Deux Shadow inventory; LinkedIn Seems to be holding its own; Vladivostok Sun drenched beaches, mai tais — what more does one need? JPM and Draghi EZone changing course? China’s richest man is quite frugal; What’s In Their Wallets? Check ’em out.

TFSAs Ten things to know; Xmas in August Off season shopping; Lifestyle Inflation Unnecessary debt; Five Ways to sabotage retirement; Target They’re already as low as Walmart, so not bothering with sales; Fortune 500 20 fastest-growing companies; US Fed Unintended consequences; Italy’s Labor Market Worse than ours; US Debt per person up 50%; Oz Not healthy #’s; 40 Years of Gold Confiscation; 15:02 clip Terry Gilliam sketch on British banks / insurers invading the US.
*
Does size matter? Ask him; Dumbass Judge There are judges, then there are bimrons (cross between bimbos and morons). This worthless sack of shit falls into the latter category; Drunk and Diselderly How times have changed; Arctic Dip Not for me; UK immigration Another fly in the ointment; Dancing with the Dolphins Pix; Snakedown Keeping the engine warm for the owners; 0:58 clip Two hamsters, one wheel; Fukushima Farmer Yep, one left; Mt. Fuji getting its knickers in a twist? McLaren’s new Spyder Conv. Pix; Great White No guts, no glory; Ice Cream Nachos New from Baskin Robbins; Warlords Drone Frenzy They can taste blood; Seer of the Ages; Fluoride causes more cancer deaths; Web Inventor No off switch; 2:11 clip Solar eruption.

#48 Saskatoon-Living on 09.07.12 at 1:09 am

Is the reason you still haven’t done a Saskatoon or SK post Garth, is because you think it’s different here???

#49 Scott in Gibsons on 09.07.12 at 1:10 am

As long as the Loonie is at par, we won’t see rising rates from the BOC.

Credit expansion might slow even with low rates. Aging population, rising cost of living, weak income growth for consumers=weak demand for credit expansion.

#50 cynically on 09.07.12 at 1:31 am

#26 Doom – I’d vote for Clinton in a minute! At least we would hear a barn-burner of a speech and not the dull, torpid ones that come out of Ottawa. Would beat a lot of the tv crap of today too.

#51 Mr. Anderson on 09.07.12 at 1:34 am

#39 Dude from Richmond

Don’t worry about a tsunami, will never hit Richmond, think Vancouver Island blocking the way. Worry about the Big One when all of Richmond becomes waterfront and then some.

#52 Terry on 09.07.12 at 1:34 am

Garth – I wonder why are you NOT the president of CRA.

#53 An Cat Dubh on 09.07.12 at 1:46 am

#26 Doom on 09.06.12 at 11:17 pm
Can we elect Bill Clinton to lead Canada?
.NO No Never No! He and Greenspan got rid of Glasse- Steagel, which in turn caused most of the economic chaos we see today, not to mention scandals, Serbia, etc. He was called Prez. Caligula.

Seen a nice older home in Vernon, B.C., in a good area. Listed at 215K. That home would have went for 350K five years ago.

#54 DELETED on 09.07.12 at 2:14 am

Smoking Man

#55 NorthOf49 on 09.07.12 at 2:24 am

Garth, any stats on pricing and sales in the 905? It appears sales in Ancaster here (the tony part of Hamilton) are moribund at best. The $1million+ market here, approx. 40 or so homes, is dead. One realtor I spoke to said the new CMHC rules will force prices on some of these homes to below $1million for them to even get interested parties to look at them. Pricing on everything else here will fall in line relative. For instance, this house came on the market at $979,000, 6 months ago:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12295345&PidKey=2101309488

After three price reductions, it now sits at $799,900. With its very dated decor (check that kitchen, ugh!) its got a ways to go yet IMHO.

Or this, in the mid-priced bracket:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12240895&PidKey=-523566946

Originally listed in the Spring for $739,900, now in desperation mode at $679,999. Rumor is, the owners are boomers committed to a downsized pad they’ve bought and gotta move this thing before year-end. Dozens more like this in my neck of the woods.

I’ve also noticed a lot of listings coming off market and not reappearing, hopeful for better times ahead perhaps?

#56 Rob the Dividend Trader on 09.07.12 at 2:37 am

I can’t say this out loud but my niece and her husband (a realtor of all things) we’re saved by bell, the new rules have twice prevented them from buying a place. He is content to rent, she, being pregnant has the nesting instinct big time. Only positive is they have no consumer debt. By the time he has two years of income the housing correction will be in full swing.

For you blog dogs out there The Dividend Guy Blog just covered this very issue

http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/2012/09/06/the-next-bubble-is-in-canada-and-it-will-affect-everybody/

#57 Rob the Dividend Trader on 09.07.12 at 2:44 am

BTW question

Buying and holding dividend stocks is the easiest way to go. Yes if the banks struggle a bit they might not raise dividends quite as quick but they won’t suffer the way the US did.

The question I’m asking is will bank stocks and such go “on sale” next year? That’s where I’m stuck. I really like picking good stocks up on sale, problem is they don’t go on sale very often and for a good stock like Fortis they rarely do.

So do I buy know and possibly miss the sale or do I wait for bargain that may or may not come?

rob

#58 TRT on 09.07.12 at 3:14 am

Its all hot air from the BoC and Gov…

Otherwise they would take action…no significant interest rates hikes even in 2013 i think. Maybe 0.25% over the next 2 years.

Hike rates—-> Housing crashes—-> botted out of political office! Like they will let that happen.

#59 TRT on 09.07.12 at 3:17 am

#35 A Yank in BC,

Being a ‘Believer’ does not mean being correct.

Our dollar is strong now…but when the US raises their rates, WE WON’T. There is the cushion! Our currency will suffer the blow —>rising inflation—-> wages catch up to debt.

#60 peter on 09.07.12 at 3:36 am

Carney has little control in the interest rate game. If the fed does QE3 (which it will) Carney will do nothing. More hot air like before. Why do people actually listen to what these central bankers say. Watch what they do and not what they say.

#61 West coast guy on 09.07.12 at 4:16 am

#39 Dude from Richmond on 09.07.12 at 12:09 am

Houses in Richmond are build on sand and on a flood-plane. What happens when there is a Tsunami?
———————————-

Apparently, Richmond is safe from a tsunami because Vancouver Island is protecting the lower mainland from a tsunami. The problem is, Richmond is below sea level so water can be easily pushed over the dykes and major flooding is a possibilty.

#62 John on 09.07.12 at 5:53 am

“There’s no argument left for having the bulk of your net worth in a house. That’s risky and myopic. The future belongs to the liquid, not the obese.”
——-

Liquidity doesn’t go far enough to address the problem.

#63 housedoc on 09.07.12 at 6:55 am

They look like teachers.

#64 Piccaso on 09.07.12 at 7:16 am

#6 Trader on 09.06.12 at 10:06 pm

Put down the pipe, if you think B.C. bud can even try and keep up with the Mexican cartels… your in living in dreamland.

To bad you don’t get Border Wars on T.V. up there.

#65 cjlizzard on 09.07.12 at 7:41 am

lets see……consumer debt has been at high levels for the US consumer for about 4 decades. considering consumers make up 75% of the US GDP you in theory should be worried….yet betting against the US consumer has always been a bad bet….same thing in Canada.

calgary realestate….downtown rents going up due to demand, same for residential. RE market is seeing prices up, listings down, sales up, housing permits up, immigration up, crude up and approaching $100, nat gas bullish…..yup, looks like that 15% correction you called for 4 yrs ago is right around the corner.

seriously, how can anyone read this blog? you havent been right on anything in 7 years of predictions.

#66 █ ♣ █ RENTER - REDEMPTION on 09.07.12 at 7:46 am

BEHIND the SCENE :

From Globe and mail Comment.
We demand this interpreted by Garth Turner NOW !!!
in his lingo? C’mon Garth, we need laugh !

——————————————–
L Rob 11:32 AM on September 6, 2012

I’m a Realtor, an elected official and had lunch with a banker yesterday.

The changes in qualification and to line of credit ratios appear benign but will actually have a big effect in debt driven consumer markets such as Vancouver lower mainland.

Equity mortgages are basically dead. You must have income to support the mortgage and show where the income is originating via your tax form. Offshore investors slapping down 50% no questions asked are finished unless they show their declared income … not something they like to do.

Downsizing boomers, we are now in the first wave, who planned on cashing in the home, putting some money aside for income and taking out a little mortgage for new townhouse or condo. are in trouble. Their retirement income will not qualify for a mortgage. I had three listings cancel last month, when these changes were announced, by boomers planning to downsize.

Small business is screwed because they now have to show their tax declared income, not their claimed income as was the practice here in BC.

Small builders, likewise. They can no longer get debt financing to start a new project based upon the equity in an existing build. They have to show income.

The rest of Canada may not understand that in BC, credit unions were giving out $350,000 mortgages for a pulse during the peak in 2006. Zero down, intent to pay based upon a claimed income.

The drug money now must show income. A big whack down is no longer sufficient.

Now throw in LOC ratio down from 80% to 65% and the BC practice of using your house equity as an auto teller is suddenly stifled.

Subtle changes but big impacts over the next year.

#67 Herb on 09.07.12 at 8:06 am

Signposts …

Two article headlines on the front page of the Business Section of The Ottawa Citizen print edition to-day:

47% of workers live on financial edge“, and

Layoff fears fuel 14% drop in home sales

#68 Victor on 09.07.12 at 8:14 am

Cooling GTA condo market sees sales drop 34%

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1252079–gta-house-prices-surge-6-5-in-august-as-sales-decline

Toronto’s condo market is “flashing warnings” with a 34 per cent downturn in sales in August over a year earlier, despite record-high demand just a few months ago, market watchers say.

The quick and decisive downturn in demand for resale condos is the best evidence yet that the condo boom has been largely driven by cheap and relatively easy credit rather than demographics, says analyst Ben Rabidoux of M Hanson Advisors.

The combination of Ottawa’s tightened mortgage lending rules and the fact so many first-time buyers jumped into the condo market early because of historically low interest rates means the housing market is like to suffer from a “demand gap” that could drive condo sales, and prices, even lower well into 2013, says Rabidoux.

#69 somecatchphrase on 09.07.12 at 8:34 am

Someone should forward this link to Vancouver city hall –

“Hong Kong to Restrict Sales of Homes at Two Sites to Locals”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-06/hong-kong-to-restrict-sales-of-apartments-at-two-sites-to-locals.html

#70 Francis on 09.07.12 at 8:39 am

Today’s blog is a true, grave indictment on F and C. Yes indeed, what were they thinking of. If this were China, they would be given a death sentence.

#71 John on 09.07.12 at 8:42 am

Doom wrote:

“Can we elect Bill Clinton to lead Canada?”
——
He’s a likeable guy. Too bad about Glass Steagal from 1935 being repealed, turning planet Earth into a one seamless derivatives based casino in 1995. Maybe Canada’s situation is…uh…connected?

Robert Rubin could handle the cash box as a sidekick. His work in the US Treasury was legendary.

It’s all kinda like finding out there’s no Santa Claus…except being an adult when you finally get it.

The unwind on this will hopefully not be too disruptive.

#72 House Horny Housewife on 09.07.12 at 8:51 am

Garth,

If people really wanted to get out of their debt quickly they definitely can. Let’s say you wake up one day and realize you are in over your head. Instead of complaining and blaming corporations and the rich for your problems (“if I made more money, this wouldn’t have happened … poor me” etc etc ..) why not do the following :

a) if you cannot afford a house, sell it and move into an apartment, thereby gaining liquidity and saving a ton of additional monthly costs .. Garth has been beating this horse for a while now so if you don’t get it by now, get lost.

b) sell anything you purchased with debt that is worth anything .. sure you will get 50c on the dollar or less but if you use this cash to pay off your debt, that’s 50c on each dollar of debt LESS that you owe .. less debt and less interest too. This will also de-clutter your life and you will feel much better.

c) find the cheapest credit card you can find (no yearly fee and low interest rate) and transfer your debt to it so that you aren’t paying 18% per month in interest (people still do this despite other debt options out there)

d) cut expenses like additional cable TV services, those expensive i-phone thingies, eating out 5 times a week (pack a damned lunch for heaven’s sake), the café lattés from Starbucks or wherever, the fast food (learn to cook .. it’s cheaper and healthier) … in other words, BUDGET and budget well so that you have money left over each month to pay down debt .. you’d be amazed how much money people piss away in restaurants and fast food .. not to mention stupid needless additional cable and phone services.

e) exchange expensive vacation habits for cheaper ones … still take your vacation (it’s important) but instead of staying in an expensive hotel choose something more quaint and cheaper, like a bed and breakfast (do your research and you can find places that are actually nicer than the most expensive hotels for a small fraction of the price). Choose destinations that you can drive to instead of flying … rent a small apartment with a kitchen so that you don’t have to eat out all of the time. Be romantic and have fun but don’t purchase your romance .. make it yourself. Budget your vacations just as you do your daily life and try not to go over.

Believe me, if people who were in financial trouble simply started with this, they would be WAY ahead in five years time.

The most important thing is not necessarily to pay off your debt but to become someone who can handle money and finances .. then the debt will take care of itself. The old saying of taking care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves holds very true here (insert dollars for pounds).

It is exactly like losing weight. You can go crazy for a while attending a gym and eating salads everyday until you lose it. But once you have lost it, you will go right back to the same weight level because your habits and way of life have not changed one bit.

Diet, budget … are know these are depressing and horrible words in our society but like it or not, they are a necessary way of life. Debt and obesity are not very nice words either. Discipline and organization are not really so very bad …

Doesn’t matter what the government does, our society needs to internalize these values or forever be in trouble.

HHHW

#73 cramar on 09.07.12 at 9:10 am

Like snowflakes… here today, gone tomorrow!

#74 Montreal_CA on 09.07.12 at 9:17 am

Whatever Garth says I just do the opposite of whatever my mother-in-law’s advice for anything financial is. It usually ends up as a profitable proposition.

#75 Stickler on 09.07.12 at 9:19 am

I agree with the Canada housing bubble…and will throw in an S&P500 bubble too.

The S&P500 has only been higher then 1400 for the year 2007. Stock prices reflect the long-term earnings & growth potential.

Today it is back to 1400 despite most companies and countries are cutting their growth forecasts.

Here is what was projected in 2007 (IMF):
– Strong global expansion continuing
– Growth projections revised upward for 2007 and 2008
– World output growth 5.2%
– China 11.2%
– India 9.0%
– Brazil 4.4%

Here is what is projected now:
The IMF cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further
– World output growth 3.5%
– China 8%
– India 6.1%
– Brazil 1.7%

And the debt levels in 2007 were nothing like today.

#76 eaglebay - Parksville on 09.07.12 at 9:22 am

#24 TakingStock on 09.06.12 at 10:57 pm
“Liar Loans. Kick backs from the banks for down payments. Ultra low mortgage rates. 40 Yr amortizations. HELOCS handed out like candy by the bankers. Sky high house prices.”
_______________

People did it to themselves.
The government should get out of people’s lives.
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The government should only get involved when these need protection.

#77 eaglebay - Parksville on 09.07.12 at 9:33 am

#39 Dude from Richmond on 09.07.12 at 12:09 am
“Houses in Richmond are build on sand and on a flood-plane. What happens when there is a Tsunami?”
_______________

No tsunami for Richmond.
Vancouver Island is in the way.

#78 TorontoBull on 09.07.12 at 9:58 am

the decline is sales in TO CMA is more like 15% because TREB adjusted the 2011 sales down by approx. 200. For reference check CHMC – Housing Now

#79 Piccaso on 09.07.12 at 9:59 am

Grand homes you can buy for a song

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/grand-homes-you-can-buy-for-a-song.html

#80 so it begins... on 09.07.12 at 10:38 am

so it begins…

we may have added 34 k jobs,

however 44k construction jobs were lost, big sign that RE is slowing.

#81 Brad in Calgary on 09.07.12 at 10:52 am

Best line from Clinton’s speech the other night…

“We have to deal with our debt problem, or it’s going to deal with us.”

You’ve got that one right Willy.

#82 Derek R on 09.07.12 at 10:55 am

#42 Harman on 09.07.12 at 12:36 am wrote:
They can’t move up interest rates in Canada, if they do the Canadian dollar will blow past the value of the US dollar.

That is true. However they could put put up property taxes. That would cool the housing bubble just the same as putting up interest rates but it wouldn’t make the Canadian dollar rise and it would help fix the Federal deficit instead of boosting bank profits even further. So the Feds wouldn’t have to raise income tax or GST.

In fact done properly as a Federal land value tax with most of the cash returned as an Alaskan-type citizens dividend, it could even do away with the need for equalization payments between the provinces.

#83 Penny Henny on 09.07.12 at 10:57 am

The report’s weak tenor was also underscored by revisions to June and July data to show 41,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. The labour force participation rate, or the percentage of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one, fell to 63.5 per cent — the lowest since September 1981.
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1252802–u-s-jobs-growth-slows-in-august-setting-the-stage-for-fed-action

63.5% have a job or are looking.
About the same as the home ownership rates in the USA.
People would rather own than rent, if they could afford to.

#84 jim on 09.07.12 at 10:58 am

#9 Baron von Munchouses

Are you kidding? People are seriously angry in BC. Just take a drive anywhere to see the aggression on display. I would love to move out of the province…but we love the land, too bad about the people.

#85 TurnerNation on 09.07.12 at 10:59 am

Perhaps the laid off factory workers are striking back against Dolton McGuilty? He’s taking us down BC’s insane path of ‘green power’, at all costs, and nutty ‘carbon taxes’ while factories flee and Joe Punchclock cannot afford the utilities. Utilities giants love this. Check Fortis’ stock price.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1252723–ndp-take-kitchener-waterloo-block-liberal-majority-as-government-holds-vaughan

NDP take Kitchener-Waterloo, block Liberal majority as government holds Vaughan

#86 Canadian Watchdog on 09.07.12 at 11:08 am

Here they come out of the gates. Greater Vancouver Daily Net Listings

#87 Buy? Curious? on 09.07.12 at 11:11 am

It’s sad that the only place two lesbians in love and get married is at a Mickey D’s.

Here is what’s coming when real estate agents start getting desperate. Keep the garden hose ready.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slzKmd8lBCs&feature=related

#88 Dave on 09.07.12 at 11:17 am

TPTB did this by design – not an accident we are in this boat. Even the people who did not fall into the clever trap will be affected.

Whatever happens will be spectacular, of that I am certain.

Too many people let the reptilian part of their brain rule over the common sense logical mammalian side.

And sadly no one can escape their own Karma.

Thanks for the read Mr Turner.

#89 Junius on 09.07.12 at 11:18 am

#77 eagle – parksville,

You said,”Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The government should only get involved when these need protection.”

It also says “We The People.”

Don’t they also need protection from crony capitalist such as banks and other financial institutions? Corporations that pollute our air, land and resources? Who sell unsafe products from the Ford Pinto to genetically modified foods? How about deny a living wage to people while in the meantime earning enormous profits? What about using our resources and infrastructure and then out sourcing jobs and not paying taxes.

Ideology may permit you to draw an easy line but reality does not.

#90 Junius on 09.07.12 at 11:23 am

#60 TRT,

You said, ” Our currency will suffer the blow —>rising inflation—-> wages catch up to debt.”

You can’t be serious. Wages have been flat on an inflation adjusted basis for decades. If anything this trend will accelerate.

#91 Spiltbongwater on 09.07.12 at 11:24 am

I live in Vancouver, and I have not seen the angry, whining people everybody keeps talking about.

Like I would say to my ex wife, just because I don’t care, doesn’t mean I don’t understand.

#92 eaglebay - Parksville on 09.07.12 at 11:27 am

#85 jim on 09.07.12 at 10:58 am
#9 Baron von Munchouses
“Are you kidding? People are seriously angry in BC. Just take a drive anywhere to see the aggression on display. I would love to move out of the province…but we love the land, too bad about the people.”
________________

Speak for yourself.
This only applies to the Lower Mainland.
The rest of BC, minus Victoria, is doing fine.

#93 eaglebay - Parksville on 09.07.12 at 11:35 am

#90 Junius on 09.07.12 at 11:18 am
#77 eagle – parksville,
“You said,”Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The government should only get involved when these need protection.”

It also says “We The People.””
_______________

That’s where the “life” part comes in. Duh…

#94 Jim on 09.07.12 at 11:41 am

#26 Doom

Anyone who thinks that a president or prime minister is a leader who can exercise initiative independently of his party or power base is completely uneducated.

Read a history of the United States in the 20th century, and you’ll see what I mean. In many ways, the first 50 years of that century were a battle between the Rockefeller and Morgan interests. The idea that presidents are self-determining ‘leaders’ who can act of their own accord is completely unsupported by the historical record.

#95 Jim on 09.07.12 at 11:44 am

#92 Spiltbongwater

I spent 30 years in Vancouver. Whenver I return, I notice a distinct difference not only from Canadians in other parts of the country, but also from the city as it was 10 years ago. I’m not just talking about the wave of immigrants who don’t speak English (and don’t want to learn it). I’m talking about a newfound pretentiousness, combined with hypersensitivity about housing and income levels.

#96 Daisy Mae on 09.07.12 at 11:45 am

#73 HHHH: “….not to mention stupid needless additional cable and phone services.”

********************

Well, let’s see….my iPhone is, of course, a phone. It’s also a camera, a radio. I have books downloaded, I can play games, watch podcasts. I can access the internet, check bank balances. I can ‘text’ my kids, all living out of town. I can ‘chat’ with a grand daughter overseas. I can e-mail. All included. Free. I’ve given up my landline which is a cost savings in excess of $30 monthly. I can make LD calls, and they’re free. The list is endless. And the cost? Merely double what that landline used to cost me. So, for me, the iPhone is invaluable. And I wouldn’t dream of giving it up….

To each, his own.

#97 Old Man on 09.07.12 at 11:59 am

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on your face – forever.

– George Orwell

#98 penpal on 09.07.12 at 12:22 pm

@ # 43 Keith in Calgary

Are we supposed to feel sorry for your wife’s colleague?

For the loss of her job, sure.

For her house buying decision – absolutely not!

Just another person too stupid or lazy to sit down and do the math before making the commitment to buy.

Boo f’ing hoo!

#99 joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs on 09.07.12 at 12:33 pm

On the tsunami risk for Richmond/Lower Mainland:

As many commenters have pointed out, it is true that Vancouver Island shields Richmond and the rest of the Vancouver area from tsunamis ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. The subduction zone plate boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate is out under the Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of Vancouver Island. This is the plate boundary that generates massive M9.0+ earthquakes about every 500 years. The last one was in 1700. So any tsunami from such a massive earthquake would be mostly blocked from reaching Vancouver by Vancouver Island.

But what everyone is forgetting is that earthquakes don’t only happen on the plate boundary under the Pacific. BC has loads of smaller fault lines running all over the province. A fault line was recently discovered under Langley. If we had an earthquake from a fault line under the Lower Mainland or under the Strait of Georgia, Richmond and other parts of the Lower Mainland may very well experience a large tsunami. These are minor faultlines, so any earthquake would be much smaller than a subduction zone earthquake, say M5-7.5 as opposed to M8.5+ for a subduction zone quake. Although a quake from a faultline under the Lower Mainland would be much smaller than a subduction zone quake, the damage to Vancouver could potentially be much more severe given that populated areas would be closer to the epicentre and the quake would probably be more shallow, closer to the surface of the land. This is arguably the more worrisome earthquake risk for Vancouver that many people are quite ignorant of as the media and scientists focus more on subduction zone earthquake risks.

Regardless of where an earthquake originates from, Richmond does have the risk of liquefaction. Breaking dykes are only part of the story. The other part of the story is the sedimentary rock that Richmond is built on, formed from thousands of years of deposition from the Fraser River. Sediments that are shaken in an earthquake go down below the water table, the water table rises and we have the ground below our feet literally turning to water. With a large enough earthquake, this likely will happen in Richmond regardless of whether the dykes break or not.

#100 Fred McGriff on 09.07.12 at 12:35 pm

Seriously tho, vancouverites are serious rageaholics. Also with a sense of entitlement, prattiness and condescending arrogance that often (temporarily) replaces the rage.

#101 Seriously? on 09.07.12 at 12:41 pm

The economic stimulus of the real estate was,

PROPA-uppafailingconservativegovt-GANDA.

Based solely on retaining control of the country at any cost.

The people that launched this bloodbath are spiritually, morally, ethically and karmically corrupt.

May they burn in their own particular neighbourhood in Hell.

Thanks for coming out, better luck next time cowboy.

#102 PoorgEoisie on 09.07.12 at 12:43 pm

99 Penpal
I agree, people like that are out of step with the world

#103 Old Man on 09.07.12 at 12:51 pm

Caesar just kicked the Auditor General under the bus, and has hired (bribed) with tax money to hire KPMG to conduct a review of F-35 costs that will become a realistic assessment, and have some oceanfront property forsale cheap in Montana. Caesar needs a puppet to rationalize his deeds to make black look like white, as this is called REFORM.

I will never forget the day when I met a senior partner with KPMG, as completed my own complex tax return in full, but had a problem with the USA disposition; he said well done, as will cost about $500.00 to figure out the USA stuff with our computer systems for all to be done right. The day I went to pick up 30 pages of nonsense was given a billing for $4000.00. WTF!

#104 Realtors don't like realtors either.... on 09.07.12 at 1:09 pm

Why all the fuss?

Vancouver is the best place on this GREEN earth.

Buy a grow up trailer for less than $10,000.

################################

http://abbotsford.en.craigslist.ca/grd/3242561501.html

################################

LOts for sale on Clist.

Debt is for chumps, banks are for chumps.
“Medical” green is the new gold!

#105 Industrial Guy on 09.07.12 at 1:13 pm

#72 John on 09.07.12 at 8:42 am

I’ll never understand why people blame Bill Clinton for the repeal of the Glass–Steagall Act.
The authors of the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act were Phil Gramm, Jim Leach & Thomas J. Bliley, Jr. …. all Republicans.

Yes, in hindsight … maybe Clinton should have vetoed the Bill.

#106 Tony on 09.07.12 at 1:19 pm

Man, I can’t wait until the Toronto housing market drops 150%! Free houses!

#107 Canadian Watchdog on 09.07.12 at 1:39 pm

Realnet 905 Area New Homes Price Comparisons

Spot where GTA’s real bubble is.

#108 truth hammer on 09.07.12 at 1:40 pm

As I’ve oft pointed out “people in Canada don’t have the ability to formulate any independant thought”. There is no independant media in Canada reporting any diversity of opinions…..in addition there are no consumer protection laws against advertisers disguising scam-speak or having to disclose…as they have to in the US for ex.

Your talking heads are merely finger puppets of the advertisers……who have been spewing the noxious gasses dictated by the unions, government and scum pretty much non stop. people who would normally have the ability to think for themselves have been instead drowned in propaganda from the likes of the CBC and Global.

The advertising crush has made the intellectual landscape of Canada resemble a reality TV show.

Look at how efffectively the Trudeau Liberals used television and the classroom to brainwash an entire generation by first creating a vacuumn and then sucking out the air. For thirty years the Liberals and unions colluded to hammer down a message to children and workers until the poor suckers began barking back the party platform as if it were gospel…..this country became like the movie..Children of the Corn……except our little monsters are the brainwashed followers of the party and all the insidious politically correct anti Canada diatribe that came out of the idiot box and spanked into disbelieving children in the classroom. Nothing like ostrasizing children with snappish words and punishment to turn a childs mind towards the master eh?

So now…after a few years of ‘free money’ the population is still not awake to the fact that they have been screwed by their own government……it’s because they have been conditioned not to think for themselves…….Canadians were trained in the classroom to be ‘complacent’……by a liberal party whose only aim was to dominate the minds of a generation so as the cement their evil social order into a constituion….and the succeeded…..but the result has been an entire population of sheep.

We have always been force fed the notion that government would save us from everything……we should do nothing for ourselves…..self interest was wrong under the liberal party…..and so people told to spend spent…..and were never told to stop…so they didn’t……..and can’t…..they are mindless….without independance…….blame the thirty years of social engineeering of the liberals.

#109 Ottawa on 09.07.12 at 1:44 pm

It’s coming, just keep patience.

Example of how the competition for sell in works:

http://grapevine.ca/listing/36196

#110 Smoking Man on 09.07.12 at 1:56 pm

So Canada shuts down embasy in Iran.

Timing is funny, assad betting down milatints so that is not going the way the west wanted.

Long OIL grasshoppers. Brits are out, yanks never been since 70’s.

Russa yeterday issues a warning about bombing. What do they know.

Obama handed crap job numbers today.

If ever a dog was to wag its tail. Today is that day

#111 Junius on 09.07.12 at 2:01 pm

#109 Truth Hammer,

You said,”Look at how efffectively the Trudeau Liberals used television and the classroom to brainwash an entire generation by first creating a vacuumn and then sucking out the air.”

For once I agree with your fundamental premise which is that people no longer think for themselves. However the idea that this was a policy of the Liberals is just foolish.

This is a complicated issue but the main culprit has been the consolidation and concentration of media into fewer and fewer corporate hands. This concentration has taken place under both Conservative and Liberal governments in Canada and Republican and Democrat in the US. In addition, the role of advertising in the revenue models for media has accelerated the corporate control of media.

Everyday here we read about the power of the Real Estate biz to control media through advertising, either directly or more often indirectly. This is political but not in a Liberal way.

It must be nice to wrap everything up in a one size fits all theory. It prevents you from having to think. Which is kind of your point, isn’t it?

#112 Old Man on 09.07.12 at 2:13 pm

I need to dedicate another quote from a man in English literature who had a vision that was decades in advance that was not understood at the time, but was nothing less than a genius who must be admired for his works, and will always admire Hemingway, and Graham Greene as well, as all knowledge comes with a study of English literature.

Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.

– George Orwell

#113 Victoria Tea Party on 09.07.12 at 2:19 pm

#61 #76

A WORD TO THE WISE…

is sufficient.

Yes, Mr. Carney has zero control over pretty much everything when the Empire Next Door is in such a pickle.

Yes, the S&P 500 is blowing the doors off 1400.

And the employment report out of the US shows the labour participation rate there is the lowest in many decades; more than one million Americans have dropped off the employment rolls, in the last month, meaning that they have given up looking for work and have to depend on the kindness of others; Fed Ex and and Intel report lousy bottom lines; this is not good.

And worst of all “everybody” is convinced that the US central bank, THEREFORE, start QEing shortly.

WHAT IF THAT GAMBIT DOESN’T WORK, like the previous 2 QEs didn’t work?

What then?

As long as the “promise” of QE remains “in the air”, then us little folk will still make some money on the markets, because fixed income (bonds) return us nothing.

Be careful what you wish for in interesting times.

Oh, and did you see the price of gold skyrocket this morning?

Wonder why…

#114 Frank le Skank on 09.07.12 at 2:28 pm

I don’t understand how there are people who have already been through a housing crash and don’t see this coming?

An issue I have is that most people who are in debt don’t have the option to pay it off quickly. The damage done by low interest rates will last for a long time for a lot of people. Its too late for Mark Carnage to start preaching about paying off debt, all he can say now is you’re screwed if you weren’t conservative with the amount of dept you took on.

I personally believe that too many people got caught up in the spending spree and over extended themselves. We don’t know how bad it is yet, but I have a feeling that its going to be a bumpy road for the economy and real estate.

I also believe that an interest rate hike isn’t needed to start a decline in real estate prices. A few months of declining sales and public opinion will start to shift. Once that happens, it will start a chain of events that will have negative results for house prices and our economy.

#115 Old Man on 09.07.12 at 2:29 pm

Well the chit just hit the fan with the National Post, and I warned you all that Caesar needed a fix with regards to this F-35 fraud, and it is called REFORM to change reality. Well in order to rig the figures it is going to cost $643,535 as a payoff to KPMG with you tax money to shame the Auditor General. We need men in government like Garth Turner with integrity to run again to stir the pot in Ottawa.

#116 Hoof-Hearted on 09.07.12 at 2:48 pm

I sent Garth photos of that Huge Mansion in Richmond that was being built, but abandoned with no roof.

Did you get it Garth?

#117 Keith in Calgary on 09.07.12 at 3:15 pm

#99 penpal…….

I certainly don’t feel sorry for her………and anyone else who does, is little more than a fool.

It’s just another “tale from the trenches”.

#118 martin9999 on 09.07.12 at 3:22 pm

Turnaaa the man, if no QE3 announcement on thursday, say goodbye to the new highs amigo

#119 Steven Rowlandson on 09.07.12 at 3:33 pm

They’ve both taken jobs in Ontario. “Finally,” she said, “we can get away from the tensions, the pissed-off people who can’t afford houses and the horrible attitude. Maybe even get a home.”

Can they escape from reality by running to Ontario to hide? No! There are plenty of unemployed and underpaid pissed off people in Ontario who can’t buy a house. I know because I am one of them.

It is all academic any way. The way things are going WW#3 will break out soon due to our own european and north american politicians in Israels service trying to pick a fight with Russia and China and their allies.
With Canada severing diplomatic ties with Iran the shouting match will be drawing to a close and that just leaves WW#3. It is a crappy deal and it raises the question why buy real estate unless it is far away from cities, political, industrial and military targets? Prepping might be a far better investment at this time.

#120 DON on 09.07.12 at 3:35 pm

@ # 93 Eagle Bay

Speak for yourself.
This only applies to the Lower Mainland.
The rest of BC, minus Victoria, is doing fine.
___________________________________________

REALLY! Parksville, Qualicum, Ladysmith, Campbell River, Courtney, Mill Bay, Sidney and in between are all retirement communities. This started on mass in the late 90’s and retirees don’t live forever. What happens when the retirement population continues to move on – what industry around will support younger folks to buy your houses. It has already started to happen, Qualicum Beach and will only intensify. The retirement industry will not be able to sustain the area. Prices have already started to come down in those and surrounding areas. One must ponder all the factors to come up with a realistic analysis.

#121 Baron Von Munchouses on 09.07.12 at 3:36 pm

#85 jim on 09.07.12 at 10:58 am
#93 eaglebay – Parksville on 09.07.12 at 11:27 am
#96 Jim on 09.07.12 at 11:44 am

Yes, you. Why are you so down on Vancouver? People aren’t more angry. I’m in the business of angry & have lived here for 40 yrs. I’m not seeing more angry. Maybe you’re hanging around the wrong people. BTW, it is absolutely stunning outside here today. Angry people can just go outside. That should cheer them up…

#92 Spiltbongwater on 09.07.12 at 11:24 am

…or they could go hotbox with spiltbongie over there, that would probably work too.

Don’t worry, (rent and) be happy.

#122 TurnerNation on 09.07.12 at 3:38 pm

Desperate Toronto realty spin!

http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/blog/augustseptember-market-report-2012/

Thee downtown condo market was the weakest of all – down 20% in July and now off 11% on a year-to-date basis from 2011. At the same time, active listings are 16% higher than this time a year ago. For downtown condos, active listings are 27% higher and the sale-to-list ratio has dropped from 26% to 23%. While detached housing is holding steady, it is apparent that the condo sales market has turned. Why? It is not that people do not want to live downtown. Rental activity is at record levels and people are opting to rent rather than buy. For investors who are leasing their units that’s good news. Average rents have increased by $150/month since the start of the year. *If rents continue to escalate, these renters will become buyers within the next 12-18 months.*
[Emphasis added]

#123 Smoking Man on 09.07.12 at 3:43 pm

Hum? Right after Big Baird says Iran embasey closing. Carney at press confrence says. High oil prices good for Canada.

Time to stock up on oil futers. Pop corn, beers and a few more ounces of the yellow stuff.. Wonder if CNN will pipe in john Macains famous song.

Bababab bomb bomb bomb Iran.

#124 TurnerNation on 09.07.12 at 4:19 pm

Toronto_CA, this answers your question, why you were stopped by the police in that area.
Are you of Cacusian decent? :-)

“…in the neighbourhoods of Regent Park, St. James Town and the Sherbourne corridor this summer.

To counter the violence, police now patrol with 10 officers per shift. By extending shift hours, 30 officers in separate teams are on foot in the three neighbourhoods on Thursday, Friday and Saturday evenings”

http://www.thebulletin.ca/cbulletin/content.jsp?sid=47527650417708806532020510748&ctid=1000136&cnid=1003106

#125 jess on 09.07.12 at 4:35 pm

Carney says Canada won’t suffer from ‘Dutch disease’

http://mq.academia.edu/FrankAshe/Papers/168923/A_Kindergarten_Guide_to_Modern_Monetary_Theory_Days_1-3_

#126 Canadian Watchdog on 09.07.12 at 4:36 pm

#123 TurnerNation

“For investors who are leasing their units that’s good news.”

GTA lease transactions was up 3% in Q1 while rental/lease listings was up 15% according to TREB. That’s five times incremental supply over demand.


RealNet New Home Price Index.
Low rise up 11.8% y/y, high rise condos down 3.1% y/y.

The unfortunate ones who can’t rent their units are going to lose their shirts and eventually default on payment. It makes no sense to pay a mortgage on an empty unit while losing. That’s double-leveraged losses.

#127 TurnerNation on 09.07.12 at 4:38 pm

#55 DELETED on 09.07.12 at 2:14 am

Funny stuff.
In Soviet Russia, Smoking man deletes you!

#128 jess on 09.07.12 at 4:42 pm

#112 Junius

…blame is a real tail chaser eh?

New Sense—Common Sense
Posted on September 7, 2012 by Devin Smith | 10 Comments
By J.D. ALT
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/09/new-sense-common-sense.html#more-3197

#129 Ludwig Von Mises Militia on 09.07.12 at 5:19 pm

Many democrats in favor of banning corporate profits.

Democrats: Let’s Ban Profits!

#130 Men Who Stare At Sheeple on 09.07.12 at 5:27 pm

#51 cynically
You wrote “I’d vote for Clinton in a minute! At least we would hear a barn-burner of a speech and not the dull, torpid ones that come out of Ottawa. Would beat a lot of the tv crap of today too.”

This is the same Bill Clinton that facilitated CIA drug runs into Mena, Arkansas during his tenure as governor of Arkansas!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mena_Intermountain_Municipal_Airport & http://www.ncoic.com/clinton.htm There are many more articles and videos about this on the web.

It seems that slick “Hey Monica where’s my cigar?” Willy along with the criminal Bush clan had some close ties with the CIA. Not surprising since Bush Sr. was head of the CIA from January 1976 to January 1977 and later went on to become the 41st US president!

People do yourself a favour and download this excellent short video clip called Crack the CIA http://archive.org/details/ctc that gives you a little glimpse into the true nature and criminality of the CIA, which continues to this day. Watch the full video on youtube! It’s an eye opener and well worth your time.

The truth is the CIA (Criminals In Action) specializes in worldwide narcotics and weapons dealing, false flag terror attacks, assassinations and financing, arming and training rebel/terrorist networks. It’s no accident that Afghanistan has the world’s largest poppy (opium) fields!

People really have no clue how deep the rabbit hole of corruption, lies, cover-ups and pure criminality that operates within the US government. It’s hard to believe that people pay big bucks to listen to this criminal talk!

But your right cynically, this guy would make a great leader. If you’re a drug or weapons dealer!

#131 Red Fox on 09.07.12 at 6:02 pm

#75Montreal_CA on 09.07.12 at 9:17 am

Bingo; just don’t let the wife in on the plan. You know, family tension. Worked very well for me also!

#132 Dan on 09.07.12 at 6:13 pm

Truth hammer #109

“Your talking heads are merely finger puppets of the advertisers……who have been spewing the noxious gasses dictated by the unions, government and scum pretty much non stop. people who would normally have the ability to think for themselves have been instead drowned in propaganda from the likes of the CBC and Global.”

The finger puppets of CORPORATE advertisers would be right but the talk of unions and government scum in control is a joke. really are you that brainwashed by corpoate propaganda to think multi BILLION dollar corporations do not have the government in their pockets. Unions have no power which is why the US has 50 million on food stamps and Canadians are maxed out on debt. If only unions had the power as your claim then America and Canada would be in an economic boom. Remember when the US had the strongest Union in the 70’s the US was top of the world. Now unions are done in the US and 50 million on food stamps. I wish I could explain it to you but you are a product of corporatism. Keep screaming about the working class making good wages.

#133 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.07.12 at 6:47 pm


#40 50% correction predictor — “You have max. two months to prepare.” — Ready as I’ll ever be. What’s the worst anyone can do? I would like to see the end of the soccer season next May if possible, before I check outta here!

#66 cjlizzard — “seriously, how can anyone read this blog? you havent been right on anything in 7 years of predictions.” — Garth was writing in the Toronto Sun in the 1980s, so it’s 37 years of wrong predictions and he’s still writing.

Carry on being wrong, Garth!

#72 John — “. . . turning planet Earth into a one seamless derivatives based casino in 1995. Maybe Canada’s situation is…uh…connected?” — Well laid out in half a sentence!

#89 Dave — “TPTB did this by design – not an accident we are in this boat.” — Another who has seen the light! Praise be! Lots more to come in a very short space of time. Good post.

#111 Smoking Man — “If ever a dog was to wag its tail. Today is that day” — Do I detect a scent of Hollywood in your missive?!

#134 penpal on 09.07.12 at 6:47 pm

@ # 133 Dan

Ah, sorry to burst yer bubble there bud, but unions (including gov’t employee unions) are responsible for electing Obama, almost every State governor and quite a few mayors of large cities in the US.

The “deliver” the election by having their membership vote for whoever will give the union the best deal come contract renewal time.

Almost every union member votes ,but many in the general population do not, so they can have a real impact on results.

In fact, Obama BROKE contract law that had stood for over 200 YEARS in the USA to renege completely on the bondholders of Chrysler to HAND OVER to the UAW union about half of Chrysler’s equity! ! !

AND THIS IS AFTER THE UAW contracts were the proximate cause of the company’s BANKRUPTCY!!!

There are many people in the US that still won’t buy Chrysler products because of this ILLEGAL rewarding of union interests.

David Miller did the same thing in Toronto to get elected as mayor.

I’d give pretty good odds that you are a product of “unionism” and probably unable to process truth and facts that counter your ‘union paradise” bs.

#135 penpal on 09.07.12 at 6:55 pm

@ # 133 Dan

Just to be clear as to how far in left field you are, the UAW almost bankrupted every one of the “Big Three” Detroit based auto makers in the 70’s.

With all their extortionate ‘strikes’ and remuneration demands they seriously impacted all of us and in the end, the egregious health, salary and benefits packages that started back then eventually drove GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy and hobbled Ford badly.

Do a little reading before you come here and spout your misinformation.

#136 TurnerNation on 09.07.12 at 6:57 pm

Warning for renters: last year, TD insurance tried raising my renter’s insurance premium by 20%. So I reduced my coverage slightly. This year they want a 22% increase. Over 40% premium in increases, in 2 years time, and I have over a decade of claims free experience mostly with TD.

40% rise, and no claims. Hevean help someone if they actually claim. Last year I tried the ombudsman, this year I’m starting with a supervisor. I lit into the first rep today – in a good way. This is beyond abusive in terms of ripping off the consumer. I will let them have it. I want them to be in the break room and say Man the customers are really pissed off over the hikes. Next step is to leave, I’ve begun my shopping.

Not even the most volatile of prices – oil, gold, street drugs(?) go up 40% over two years. Insurance is supposed to be steady – why Bufffet likes it. We’ve had no hurricanes here in Canada, no tornados. No mass losses. They cannot excuse this one away.

#137 p on 09.07.12 at 7:14 pm

just talked to an acquaintance who approves mortgages for one of the banks in Vancouver. Still busy. 40 a month. says banks don’t care what house prices go to. just make the monthly payments. Nothing seems to have any effect. There are always ways around new restrictions. No responsibility. Privatize profits and socialize losses.

#138 Victor on 09.07.12 at 7:25 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/07/canadian-rates-could-rise-well-before-the-end-of-2013-report/

There are signs Canadians are listening to the urging of government and regulators to get household debt under control, and the Bank of Canada could respond by raising interest rates “well before the end of 2013,” according to a report released Friday by Moody’s Analytics.

“Should a stronger and more sustained improvement in economic growth commence, it will not likely be met with continued monetary accommodation. We expect the bank to start raising rates well before the end of 2013,” said the report written by Bodhi Ganguli, an economist on the international team at Moody’s Analytics.

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate at 1% in September, but, unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, it has not hinted at further economic stimulus or pledged to hold rates at their current record lows through the end of 2014.

#139 JimH on 09.07.12 at 7:28 pm

#109 Truth Hammer (sic)

Perhaps you’d like to explain how the post war “Liberal Years” of 1945 – 1984 were the most productive and prosperous years in Canada’s economic history???

No need to repeat what others have said…
Yes, the truth is a indeed a hammer… and it’s beating your sorry, ignorant ass.

#140 JimH on 09.07.12 at 7:29 pm

#109 Truth Hammer (sic)

no offense…

#141 futureexpatriate on 09.07.12 at 7:37 pm

The really GOOD news is…. terrible economic times should probably put an end to conservative rule, aka oligarchy or plutocracy, (choose your poison). It worked for the US.

#142 Daisy Mae on 09.07.12 at 7:53 pm

#85 Jim: “Are you kidding? People are seriously angry in BC. Just take a drive anywhere to see the aggression on display…”

*****************

This, too, shall pass. BC is a beautiful province.

#143 jess on 09.07.12 at 7:54 pm

…”Hoarding corporate cash in bank accounts, Treasuries and tax-exempt bonds poses a serious threat to the economy, as Congress recognized when it enacted the corporate income tax in 1909.

…A business holding more cash than its operations reasonably require can be hit with a 15 percent levy under Section 531 of the Internal Revenue Code, on top of the 35 percent corporate income tax. The Tax Court even devised a mechanical test in 1965 for how much is too much.

Historically the IRS has levied only privately owned firms or publicly traded companies with few shareholders. But Internal Revenue Code Section 531 applies to all corporations. President Ronald Reagan signed Section 532 (c), which made that explicit, though with an exception for untaxed offshore profits’…
http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2012/07/16/idle-corporate-cash-piles-up/

#144 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.07.12 at 8:11 pm


US Unemployment Real numbers; 1:03 clip Caution: Naughty lingo, not for the politically stupid jackasses (Ireland gets bailed out); Baltic Dry Index “The most reliable predictor of manufacturing output just fell off a cliff.” wrh.com; Subprime City “After all, look how well that subprime mortgage thing worked out!” wrh.com; Convicted UBS execs. for muni bond fraud; Hungary unfriends IMF. Yesterday, Bulgaria. Today Hungary. Tomorrow? Swiss Chocolate “As anyone who has actually had chocolate products made in Europe is well aware, they are superior to what passes for chocolate produced by American companies. If allowed onto the US Market, European chocolate will quickly replace American chocolate as consumers’ favorite, especially going into the Christmas shopping season.” wrh.com; OECD Economy getting worse? Yup; Food All words in the headline equal riots.
*
6:07 clip Expands on #124 Smoking Man’s post, and 2:17 clip United Church boycotts Israeli products; US attack “At worst it will trigger a global nuclear war involving Russia and China, which really do have nuclear weapons and know for a fact that Iran does not!” wrh.com; Gunfire “Shooting at a school bus (no injuries). Obviously a PR stung by the gun-grabbers.” wrh.com. Sheeple are expendable. Agenda 21 is not; Destabilization China, Russia and now Venezuela. Is it because SArabia will be out of oil by 2030? Syria’s KKK; DC Police controlling by design; Fukushima Mystery bacteria on fuel rods; 1:34:43 doc. Psycotropic drugs — possible cause of suicides? Iraq – Iran Demand proof from the US; 4:45 clip They are the m$m and, we’re not (organic food).

#145 Junius on 09.07.12 at 8:26 pm

#135 penpal,

Union’s did not elect Obama. That is totally bogus. The membership in unions in the US has never been lower and the union movement never been weaker. Even if they all voted for one person – which they don’t – they couldn’t elect anyone alone.

The real power remains in the corporations. Now with Citizen’s United their victory is assured. No matter who wins they will beholden to corporations. Just like last election.

Why do you think a single banker has not been prosecuted? Both sides take money from Wall Street – more than any union can give.

#146 Junius on 09.07.12 at 8:29 pm

#136 penpal,

You said, “the egregious health, salary and benefits packages that started back then eventually drove GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy and hobbled Ford badly.”

Auto workers in Germany, Sweden and Japan are paid very well, also. Furthermore the Auto Pact goes a long way to protecting the industry.

The bigger problem with the US auto-makers was simply bad product. Blame the management and not the workers. BTW – which got bailed out more? That’s right, the management.

#147 Smoking Man on 09.07.12 at 8:33 pm

Vlad. Lol. Its film fest here in big smoke. If I walk on king street tonight al lease 50 people will come up to me for a photo or autograph. Me bruce willis are twins

#148 jess on 09.07.12 at 8:45 pm

– Prof. Kleinbard: Stateless Income and The Lessons of Stateless Income.
March 22, 2011

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2011/03/kleinbard-.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/edward-d-kleinbard/the-global-tax-avoidance-_b_843318.html
=========
money flows backwards?
Bankrupt Cyprus And The Russian Connection
Thursday, September 6, 2012 at 5:55PM
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/9/6/bankrupt-cyprus-and-the-russian-connection.html

#149 jess on 09.07.12 at 8:50 pm

is mr canada addressing this with mr russia?

The Greek situation on its doorstep hasn’t helped, of course. But the curious fact about is that Russia has provided bailout money. Russia? Well, yes. It turns out that Cyprus has been the largest foreign investor in Russia by a country mile (rather in the same way that the British Virgin Islands has been the largest investor in China, after Hong Kong): $41.7 billion was invested in Russia from Cyprus in 2007-10, nearly three times more than German investments in Russia over that time period.

We at TJN all know what’s happening here. It’s called round-tripping. This is not real investment, of course. This is Russian money going offshore to Cyprus, pretending to be foreign money then coming back illegally under the cover of a tax treaty, where foreign investors get special tax and other perks that they wouldn’t be able to get if they invested directly at home. So we get strange behaviour like this:

“In the last three months of 2011 alone, $37.4 billion left Russia, which analysts put down to Russian banks that have increased their lending to the subsidiaries of Russian companies based in tax havens.”…

http://www.eurofast.eu/dev1/phocadownload/Publications/Brochures/cyprus-the%20new%20modern%20hub%20for%20investments%20into%20russia.pdf

#150 Herb on 09.07.12 at 9:06 pm

#133 Dan,

Truth Hammerer isn’t “brainwashed by corporate propaganda” – he IS corporate propaganda!

#151 truth hammer on 09.07.12 at 10:53 pm

#133 Dan….the sad fact is that in Canada the government is the largest advertiser……and when they threaten…they get listened to…..they are after all the sole source of revenue for the media.

With unions…I think the latest revelations that PSAC has been financially backing the seperatist PQ with union dollars …against the intersts of the membership and all Canadians has to tell you the value sytstem ,morals and ethics of your union bosses. These are the same clowns that insist that union dues must be paid by all employee’s and that they have no intention of disclosing to whom or where the money is going…….

#152 penpal on 09.07.12 at 11:27 pm

@ # 146 Junius

Corporations can’t cast votes.
You fail.

#153 penpal on 09.07.12 at 11:47 pm

@ # 147 Junius

One difference is in productivity.

Autoworkers in Germany, Japan and Sweden all have different remuneration levels and are in different tax contexts. Also, they tend to make higher margin vehicles (BMW has a 100% mark-up from first costs for example).

Nonetheless, their remuneration is at a much lower level relative to the costs of their society. (Meaning they don’t live in 3,000 sq ft homes and have 2 or 3 cars cause they are paid a stupid rate to nail fenders on cars!)

When GM went bankrupt, it was famously reported that the costs of the healthcare FOR RETIREES ALONE cost more per vehicle than all the steel components combined – over $1,500 PER VEHICLE if memory serves me correctly.

When your labour component costs are that large a % of your product costs, you can’t deliver the quality of vehicle.

Besides, we owned a car related business decades ago and I can tell you back then that imports (except maybe Japanese) were as bad for reliability, if not worse.

As an aside, I have read some of your postings over the past years here and there really is no point trying to interact with you. I think you are a lawyer, no?
I only converse with lawyers only when I’m paying them because they generally know f&ck all about business.

Continue with your delusions.

And just for full disclosure – were you raised in a union family or something or did your undergrad degree involve a lot of SOCIALIST bs studies?

#154 penpal on 09.08.12 at 12:00 am

@ # 146 Junius

I noticed how you didn’t challenge my points about Chrysler and how well the unions made out while the bondholders got screwed out of their rightful proceeds as SECURED bondholders.

Do ya think Obama abrogated over 200 years of contract law on a whim? Do you really?

Do ya think Obama tours UAW manufacturing / union shops and plants for fun during elections?

And don’t be so obtuse – concentrating union members’ votes have been the deciders in many a tight election race – of course they didn’t cast all the ballots in the election, but their votes made the difference!

#155 penpal on 09.08.12 at 12:09 am

@ # 146 and # 147 Junius

A number of counties / cities in the USA are actually going to bankruptcy court.

Know what got them there in every case – outsized UNION obligations for pensions, etc. and current pay for UNION members.

Gee, I wonder how they managed to get such great remuneration – do ya think it might have something to do with union vote pandering by the politicos they got elected?

Unions have no power in the political process?

Yeah, riiiiggght!

#156 cynically on 09.08.12 at 2:04 am

#131 Men Who etc. – As far as allowing CIA drug runs into Arkansas, if true, I’m sure he was told by the Reagan administration that it was in the country’s interest, similar to the most recent guns into Mexico to trace their receipt by Mexican drug gangs under the Obama administration. The CIA is entrusted to do what is in the best interests of the country and evidently, if you are right, they are great salesmen so what president DEM or REP is going to say no. As for the Lewinsky affair, he paid dearly with impeachment and shame. Given all that, the US had its greatest run of prosperity under Clinton in many, many years and hasn’t seen it since, so yes, I thought his speech was terrific and I only wish he could run again. By the way were you perhaps deported from the US, you are so angry.

#157 Men Who Stare At Sheeple on 09.09.12 at 12:23 am

#157 cynically-You said “The CIA is entrusted to do what is in the best interests of the country and evidently, if you are right, they are great salesmen so what president DEM or REP is going to say no.”

What you are saying is that it is okay for governments to import narcotics into the country as long as it is in the best interests of the country! This is a truly ludacris statement!

Where do you think the tons of crack cocaine and other illict narcotics that the CIA distrubutes into US cities and around the world ends up?” That’s right in the streets of American cities and other cities around the world, leaving a path of death, destruction and shattered human lives! What does this have to do with national security?

You truly have a great misunderstanding of what the CIA does and who they truly work for! Please do some futher reading and investigation into the CIA, Mossad, MI5 and MI6!

The masses are fed a daily dose of corporate controlled mainstream media, which spews propaganda and lies 24/7. Weapons of mass destruction, War On Terror, War On Drugs, Bin Laden, Al Queda, Iran, Syria, yada yada yada! This is just pablum for the sheeple. Complete brainwashing and mind control! In reality the intelligence agencies create these bogeymen to create fear among the masses so they will give up their civil liberties and give the state a carte blanche reason to wage endless wars for global domination.

Most people still believe that 9/11 was carried out by 19 muslim hijackers with their bearded leader running the operations from a cave in Afganistan. What a complete and utter bullshit fairytale! Dig down and you will soon realize that the intellegence agencies of the CIA and particularly the Israeli Mossad fingerprints are all over that event. Start here http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=123885&page=1 which completely ties in to these heavily redacted 9/11 FBI reports http://www.scribd.com/doc/62392807/Dancing-Israelis-FBI-document-Section-1-1138796-001-303A-NK-105536-Section-1-944861 that were released under the US freedom of information act. Also watch this Fox news report http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeW-CRYr2u0.

Remember that state sponsored terrorism which is basically false flag terrorism has been used throughout history to control the masses through fear and start wars to expand empire. Check out a documentary called “Terrorstorm” This a informative documentary and a good primer.

“I will state unequivocally that the US government, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, CIA, Pentagon and the MSM are not serving the best interests of the American people but rather the interests of the private international banking cartel (Rothchilds, Rockefellers, Warburgs, Shiffs etc.) and their corporations in their ultimate quest for One World government! As they continue to destroy the global economies through unrepayable debt created by their central banking fiat money system, the zionist controlled US government beholden to Israel is hell bent on starting a wider war with Syria and Iran and possibly sending the world into WW3!” I stand behind this statement and my posts with complete confidence!

Anyway I am not here to argue with you or to change your mind! Let’s just agree to disagree!

By the way I am not in the least bit angry! I am a happlily married man with young children and I’m 100% Canadian Eh! Born and raised in TO.

In the end we are all searching for the truth!

Peace out!

#158 $$$BPOE#1 on 09.09.12 at 12:49 am

DEAD WRONG FOR ALMOST A DECADE
Robert Shiller – “People get excited about housing. They get excited about Vancouver. You’ve got to get it straight. Just because Vancouver is a nice place to live, doesn’t mean that prices are going to go up there forever.”

#159 futureexpatriate on 09.09.12 at 10:29 am

#158 Don’t you just hate it when people misspell words the way a stupid rap star purposely misspelled his name for the “street cred”? As if the word never existed before the rap star?

Nothing more ludicrous or irritating.

And now, if you’ll excuze me, I’m going to embarq on a little voyajj.

#160 Robert on 09.09.12 at 2:07 pm

The Banks will continue to tighten lending policies as they have made it very clear that Canadian real estate is now a tier three asset. It will take about six months to truly understand the deep negative impact that will be felt by all new buyers or lack thereof. Take a close look at the Kelowna, Vernon, Salmon Arm and Kamloops markets as they seemed to have already adjusted. In fact they went into full retreat prior to the new policies so picture these areas in another 6 months. The day of selling your home for 50 to 100k over assessed value is long gone. In fact I am seeing more and more new listings with a starting price below assessed value and these are still sitting unsold with little or no interest. When I hear td bank forecast a 10% to 15% decline I have to laugh as I am sure prices in the above mentioned areas they are already down at least 15% and this looks like only the beginning.. It’s looking like a buyers strike is on the horizon and the Government and the Banks have only acted as a catalyst to support this very real sunset.. Time is the teller of all truths and if I was a buyer I would certainly be sitting on my hands as the market is slowly reaching full retreat..