Futures

 

Like financial advisors and strippers, not all real estate agents are worth knowing. One of those who seems bent on educating consumers about market conditions is Ross Kay, who toils in the toxic wasteland known as The 905. I brought you some of his thoughts a few weeks ago, and a few more seem in order, given the latest housing news. Besides, he sucks up.

“Your posts repeatedly and tirelessly, continue to communicate the inevitable correction in the real estate marketplace.  You have made comments about listing number surges soon to come, that will drive down prices naturally, as speckers have over purchased condos as flips and not investments.  So, I wonder why the “Black Market” of condo sales, is not being talked about anywhere.”

What the guy’s referring to are called ‘assignments’ in the business, and they’re living proof that official real estate board stats – at least in the massive GTA market – are meaningless.

Here’s why. In the past year builders have brought scores of new projects to market representing thousands of units. In fact, about 53,000 are currently under development in Toronto alone. Eight in ten buyers have been speckers and flippers who think they’re geniuses buying from plans and then selling off for big bucks before they ever have to close or take possession.

But builders have contracts preventing this kind of activity from happening – at least formally. You simply can’t place an unbuilt condo unit for sale on MLS. But at the same time, every one of these pre-sales is counted by the real estate cartel as a firm deal at full price (even though just a fraction of it has changed hands), and included in the monthly stats which reporters actually believe.

How much can this change the numbers? Well, you judge. Condo sales have been running at approximately 2,000 a month in the GTA, where a total of about 6,000 properties change hands every thirty days. Hmmm, seems like that’s about 30%, no? Still believe what you read?

But as Ross points out, those condos get sold again anyway – and these days often at discounted prices as the market careens downward. This is a price collapse that never makes it into the official numbers.

“There are literally 1000’s of condos available today in Canada that can be purchased through an assignment of the original purchase documents. The prices these condos change hands at are never disclosed and any decrease in price is not shown on any pricing model in Canada. When the home closes the builder will report the original sale price only.  Currently as fear begins to set in with speculators across Canada, some who have condos that will not close for 2 or more years, they know prices have begun to slide rapidly.  We are already hearing of some condos exchanging hands,  that include financial inducements to the buyers, as panic is on the verge of being unleashed into the condo “futures” market.”

Need some proof of the black market in condo assignments? Just check out Kijiji, or Craigslist, or an outfit like this.

Make no mistake about it, the condo futures market is the Canadian equivalent of the global derivatives pyramid. Only more dangerous.

Is it already happening?

Condo sales in the first two weeks of August plunged 21%, while the market overall tumbled almost 8%. The average house price in the GTA this month is $480,000, which the real estate board desperately billed as being “an increase of 9.2%” over last summer. In reality, it is $30,000, or 6%, less than it was six weeks ago. Yes, even with the frankenumber including all those condo sales which actually didn’t get sold, and will flip again soon for a lot less.

All over the nation, this is what to expect – even in places where nobody expects it.  In Ottawa, for example, flagging consumer confidence is being blamed for a ‘hammering’ of new home sales and a growing crisis in construction. Sales have just plopped by 20%, in the wake of widespread job cuts by the feds. And it’s happening at the worst possible time – on the heels of a condo boom which has thousands of new units hurtling towards the void.

Meanwhile, VanCity continues to liquify. Sales crashed 18% in July. Prices are now down 12.4%. The dollar value of sales melted by 28.4%, and the city’s horrified realtors are on track for a rerun of 2008 in the final four months of the year. And this is all based on numbers the industry has provided. Imagine what the real story is.

Face it: this is a seismic shift no community will escape. We have left the age of inflation and rising asset values and entered a world of low-growth, quasi-deflation, deleveraging and structural unemployment. This is the time when financial assets will outperform, and show less risk, than the stuff your momma told ya was safe.

Hope you’re ready.

I will deal with this Monday night in Vancouver.

151 comments ↓

#1 siddelly on 08.16.12 at 9:41 pm

Ichiban….!

#2 Lost cash on 08.16.12 at 9:52 pm

Garth if I could buy now at 20% under list in leslieville should I ?

Under who’s ‘list’? — Garth

#3 Ty on 08.16.12 at 10:00 pm

Won’t happen in Winnipeg – it’s different here

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.16.12 at 10:00 pm

Any consumer that is actually confident in a housing purchase is in fact the greater fool… Low consumer confidence seems refreshing!

#5 sqiggly on 08.16.12 at 10:01 pm

me #1.

#6 Marco from Van on 08.16.12 at 10:02 pm

There are 2 years of blog entries to prove your track record. Not only did you call it, but you also described how it happened.

You were right. The delusion at street level is still there but crumbling fast… I see a lot of worried people saying “it is a blip, it will come back like ’08” but have no clue as to what made ’08 different than ’12…

The fuel is just not there, credit will not expand, but contract… Then you will see how a small percentage of wealthy immigrants don’t drive the market, but how marketing, spin, euphoria and cheap money does…

Just like all other urban centers in the world… Dublin, LA, Chicago, London (UK), Paris, Milan, Madrid. Loaded people are still there, but the market corrected for all the “normal” highly leveraged – can’t afford it anymore – middle crass (class).

This is a great lesson in economics that will educate the current 20/30 somethings, like the ’80s pop did the 60 year olds… Cyclical economics…

That’s why contrarianism is king!

#7 Jody on 08.16.12 at 10:07 pm

I can’t help but wonder if we are going to have the same kind of land title mess they now have in the US. Is there no end to the corruption realturd scum will participate in? Everytime I read stuff like this it does nothing but cement my hope that there is a huge crash up here in Canuckistan with out of work realturd wankers begging for spare change on the streets. I say ship them all to Kalamazoo where they can keep officer Walt company, just don’t ask him if he’s been to the Stampede.

#8 Cory on 08.16.12 at 10:10 pm

Everywhere but Calgary

#9 Jody on 08.16.12 at 10:11 pm

“Ty on 08.16.12 at 10:00 pm

Won’t happen in Winnipeg – it’s different here”

Hahahahaaha!

Okay! Won’t happen in Moose Jaw – it’s different there, they make genuine Saskatchewan sealskin bindings. Prices only go up! I say members of the new world order are buying up property in the Canadian Rockies as safe havens, that’s why those prices keep going up.

#10 Wudeva on 08.16.12 at 10:15 pm

Beer et al. v. Townsgate I Limited et al.
25 O.R. (3d) 785:

The words of the Judge:

1 Townsgate I Limited (“Townsgate”) initiated its promotional marketing of a luxury condominium project located at the intersection of Bathurst Street and Steeles Avenue in Vaughan Township. As part of its marketing efforts, invitations were sent to prospective purchasers to attend a special preview showing of the proposed development.

2 The grand opening extended over a three-day weekend in February, and a picture emerges of a scene on those three days which is not a pretty one. It is a picture of individuals swept up in a frenzy of opportunity where common sense was overtaken by avarice, and traditional attributes of propriety, professionalism and integrity disintegrated into a contest of financial wit.

3 Shortly thereafter, the bubble burst with the dramatic collapse of the real estate market and the sad realization that no pot of gold lay at the end of the rainbow.
4 Each party blames the other for this sorry state of affairs.”

That Ontario court case was from 1989…Sounds all too familiar…

#11 Canadian Watchdog on 08.16.12 at 10:17 pm

Wondering who’s brilliant idea it was to create a property futures market?

The Ontario Real Estate Association

PDF: OREA Form 140

#12 jack frost on 08.16.12 at 10:21 pm

all i know is i haven,t seen a reduced prices on mls!

#13 Come to Calgary on 08.16.12 at 10:24 pm

We need to buy your book. :-)

#14 Julia on 08.16.12 at 10:26 pm

Garth, how dare you include honest hard working gals in the same category with the other two!

#15 OttawaMike on 08.16.12 at 10:34 pm

Garth wrote:” in Ottawa”
“on the heels of a condo boom which has thousands of new units hurtling towards the void.”
——————————————–
There are new built 600sq/ft units available in central Ottawa in the low twos. How much cheaper can they get with a glut and correction?

And please don’t ask me how long I have been selling condos for as I have no condo holdings except maybe eventually renting one.

#16 Roial1 on 08.16.12 at 10:35 pm

Hey Garth, come on over to the Island. I’ll take you fishing for salmon on the Eve river. The pinks are running and the action is fast. Just pack a fly rod and #8 fly line. I have lots of extra flies. When one of these babies hits and runs you into your backing your heart will start to tell you if you are alive or not.

LOL Al

#17 TaxHaven on 08.16.12 at 10:37 pm

Doesn’t mean there won’t be price inflation in food & energy. Things don’t all deflate at the same speed. Credit will dry up.

The flakiest stuff, requiring the taking on of debt and with no pricing power, will price down first. Objectively overpriced things like unbuilt condo plans, RVs, Starbucks, cottage country, Facebook stock and $40K pickup trucks. And higher education. Then, with no growth occurring yet no inflation-beating yield, the financial stuff will follow: dividend payers, REITs, tech stock darlings, bonds, money market funds. This with increasing volatility in forex as the race to debase steps up.

The last and least to fall will be consumer energy prices, food essentials, some commodities and quality stocks in those areas.

The market doesn’t work this way now. They are desperate, absolutely CRAVING, for cash yield right now, even as they fall behind with it once they get it. They don’t understand capital destruction: the need to preserve capital will increasingly supersede the search for yield.

But this will be drummed into their heads over the coming years…

#18 Lost cash on 08.16.12 at 10:38 pm

Garth your smooth……

#19 Chris on 08.16.12 at 10:39 pm

Garth MPAC recently reported that Northern Ontario property values are way up since 2008. In some places as high as 28%. (Timmins) Houses fly off the market while hotels and rental units are full of displaced resource sector workers who would never dream of buying locally and actually living in the sticks. Could it be different here?

#20 Julia on 08.16.12 at 10:44 pm

Last year a friend invited me to one of those preconstruction condo VIP sales event dinners (she was considering buying one) where they talked about how assignments worked. Why you didn’t even have to get financing if you could manage to assign your condo to someone else before you took possession. And the agents promised to find you the buyer and everything. Oh, only hitch was you needed a “special” real estate lawyer. It really did have the feel of a good ole fashioned 1980’s style California pyramid scheme. I couldn’t wait to get out of there.

#21 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 08.16.12 at 10:45 pm

As is probably obvious, I have an sunken orbital lobe for detail..

Look closely…..Notice the cyclist in Garth Family photos has another (red)bicycle stuck up the arse.

#22 Devore on 08.16.12 at 10:49 pm

How can the real estate board count pre-build condo sales in its stats? There’s no title until occupancy period ends and the unit is registered with city hall. You’re just trading paper. It’s not real estate.

#23 Crabby in mcmurray on 08.16.12 at 10:59 pm

My sister in law just sold her house in Milton yet for Almost full price in less than a week . Interesting.
I guess it’s still hot there.

#24 Lost cash on 08.16.12 at 11:01 pm

Hey smokin man show me the way….

#25 DodgedBullet on 08.16.12 at 11:07 pm

meanwhile my portfolio (thanks for the investment advice, Garth!) has grown 5.91% in 1 year.

This number doesn’t include dividends.

Thanks again for the education.

Ben.

#26 Teresa on 08.16.12 at 11:07 pm

Hi Garth

Could you, or anyone else, clarify what happens upon renewal of 30,35,40 year mortgages? I’ve heard that if you want to continue with the original amortization schedule, you have to stay with the same bank. Otherwise you will be subject to qualification under the new rules, 25 yr max and the new TDS. This means your original bank has you by the short and curlies, and I would assume they just give you the posted rate. What happens if you can’t afford that? In a similar vein, when your mortgage comes up for renewal can your original bank, or any banks refuse to extend a new mortgage based on a new risk assessment (eg, you lost your job, your TDS has gotten worse due to credit card debt), what happens? If I can’t get a new mortgage at the end of my current one does the bank just take your house, or are you given a short amount of time to try to sell it yourself. I’m wondering how fast people will start to have to sell urgently, or will there not be too many people in this type of situation?

Thanks for any information.
Teresa

#27 squidly77 on 08.16.12 at 11:16 pm

Real estate boards crooked ? Who woulda thunk it!

#28 MB on 08.16.12 at 11:17 pm

Garth,
What are your thoughts on the Davisville area in Midtown Toronto?
It seems that a neighbourhood that is close to downtown by car or subway, with lots of parks, good schools, young families, and not overflowing with new condo buildings should weather the storm better than most areas of the GTA. And I rarely see any Vespas or Harleys.

#29 BC Bring Cash on 08.16.12 at 11:18 pm

Won’t happen in Winnipeg. Yeah right! I bought around 1988 and sold at a big loss in 1994. Got wiped out. It took a decade to pay off the loss. It ain’t gonna happen here. Well guess what it already has and will again just like everywhere else. Winnipeg is not immune from lunacy.

#30 Gunboat Denier on 08.16.12 at 11:19 pm

16 Roial1 – Eve River is great! Even if you dont fish. Plus
check out the deals in nearby Sayward/Kelsey Bay

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12098009&PidKey=1739210734

If you go all the way down to the Eve R sort there’s a
rough ramp and a dock for exploring Johnstone Straits.
What awesome countryside. Hope to get up that way again before the weather turns.

#31 Not 1st on 08.16.12 at 11:21 pm

Garth, cmon, lets get real for a second. There is no way financials are spared during a deflationary de-leveraging. We are to believe that everything crashes except for stocks? You need to make a better case why and how this can happen.

#32 City that smells like it sounds on 08.16.12 at 11:23 pm

That won’t happen in Regina, its different here. We are just catching up to what prices should have been a long long time ago.

#33 Realtors in an all out panic on 08.16.12 at 11:29 pm

Realtors are in an all out panic as garth posts the facts and truth realtors don’t want the masses to know. Get out there bloggers and spread the word or garth. Let everyone know what is really happening. Together we can expose the current housing crash which is happening right now. It goes to be a nasty crash realtors

#34 Casual Observer on 08.16.12 at 11:34 pm

#26 Teresa

Could you, or anyone else, clarify what happens upon renewal of 30,35,40 year mortgages?

Hope this helps.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/new-mortgage-rules-could-make-switching-or-refinancing-tougher/article4389044/

#35 truth hammer on 08.16.12 at 11:36 pm

I mentioned 2 weeks ago about the FSBO flyers taped onto the backsides of HAM-VANS aka mini vans….the new trend is to fire the realtard and try to save yourself from zero equity by paying zero commission. Whether this is working or not has yet to prove out…..the HAM community all eat in the same strip malls though and back bumper advertising seems as good as a real tards flunky sign littering the front lawn. There is a much larger listings market than the real estate pimps are reporting in the media. But they want to think they can control the message….isn’t this what the Liberal Party did to Canada for 30+ years……..where did that lead us? Oh yeah…disaster.

What Garth mentions about new market leadership may be partly correct. In the 80’s…as real estate was plunging off a cliff and unemployment couldn’t be contained we had a period where the stock market began to boom to add insult to injury to all the trapped speculators who had agmbled all their money on condo’s and revenue pits who had to sit on the sidelines and watch one of the biggest runs in stock market history pass them by.

The Obama administration is desperate for good news…..they don’t want the market to be crashing in November……surreptitious stats are being released about US housing bottoming ….of course no one wants to talk about the millions of units in REO shadow inventory.

This could be a bang up fall in the markets and just like the 80’s greedy speculators will start dumping inventory when they see that gains on the stock market are far greater and faster than anything real estate offers. That could exacerbate real estates decline….it wouldn’t be the first time.

#36 Victoria Tea Party on 08.16.12 at 11:39 pm

SUMMER MADNESS TO AUTUMN ANXIETIES

Who says the stock markets will be the safe havens for us Canucks as our real estate “industry” turns into stinky fertilizer?

Remember September; it can be a risky venture for those looking for 6 per cent returns in an amazingly long, low, heavily manipulated market environment. It is ALWAYS RISKY right about now.

With that in mind, just how come the DOW, S&P, TSX and so on can remain so sanguine for so long, with nary a “meaningful” correction to look back on, month in and month out?

Is it happy investors plunking their remaining post 2008 bucks down awaiting for what, 26-grand on the DOW? Is that what would follow another shot of Fed QE?

We’re all waiting for THAT fix, aren’t we? My stock broker tells me this is so and when it does it’ll all be lightness and riches and sunny days forever and a day!

HERE’S THE REALITY

What is actually happening in the markets can be captured by one word: Directionless.

That’s the most recent word being used in investor TV-land these days to describe market sentiment and its follow-on lacklustre light trading days.

While most private, therefore small, investors still have a gnawing sense that something is horribly wrong with the economy and stock markets and that some kind of denouement is thereby justified, in the US especially, the institutional investors and the computer programs have been happily buying and selling making a few pennies and bucks on the trades which, when looked upon the wider canvas of that investment world, represents huge returns while the rest of us keep to the sidelines.

Are we missing out? Dunno.

What we do know is that we can’t accurately predict future events. The doom and gloom websites think they can, of course, because they need paid subscribers to stay in circulation.

But the bread and butter investment community is not playing and that, over time, is not a good thing for the current and future good health of capital markets everywhere. Not that many IPOs this year, so far.

WHAT KEEPS THE DIRECTIONLESS HAPPY GOING?

Some of the jollity, for the institutional investors (do they REALLY know something we don’t?), comes following earlier-this-summer quotes from such Eurozone head-sheds as Mario Draghi and his fellow ‘crats that they will “do what it takes” to save the Eurozone, and thus the entire world, from its fatally-indebted self! They brought us 2008, so haven’t they pretty much done us already! No more please!

A hangar full of black swans awaiteth us ALL on the far side of September, I do believe.

HARPER THE HARPIE

Perhaps that’s why PM Harper handed German Chancellor Merkel (during her Ottawa visit today) a gift of a genuine Canadian canoe paddle, but no canoe and no creek up with which she could paddle her new canoe! Who K-new?

Also, Ms. Merkel was refused good Canadian money to help with the IMF’s Euro bailout fund. The annoying Lefties across Canada are all clamouring for this to happen believing firmly in the wasting of good public money on any and all gotta-fail boondoggles, the Eurozone being chief among those these days. So, we wait for whatever market mayhem MAY happen this fall.

GUANO ANYONE? A CAUTION

Meanwhile, back in our actualworld of real estate, this industry is being honked to death by an already airborne flock of black swans.

An industry that has grown to be about 30 per cent of our annual GDP, is now covered deep and wide in “bird poop”. Maybe those fine suits-in-charge could open a guano processing plant by next spring sometime, right Garth? Gotta make a buck!

There used to be such an enterprise down in Chile, a long time ago…I think…

And, please remember this. Just because one major market (real estate) crashes, doesn’t mean the others can’t crater as well. They’ve done that!

Nothing can re-balance so long as central banks continue to keep rates low on a market segment (bonds) that is far larger and more potent that the “puny” stock markets.
Bonds rule. They really do.

#37 Canadian Watchdog on 08.16.12 at 11:46 pm

#22 Devore

Sales booked on MLS are from developers selling inventory. Previously when the market was hot they didn’t need to use MLS since they were clearing out inventory right from their sales office, but when sales slowed, many started using MLS.

To analogize GTA’s average price: think of the S&P500 Index and Emini S&P500 futures markets both declining, now add Emini S&P500 futures sales to S&P500’s Index and voila! You’ve got a higher index.

Hypothetically speaking.

#38 Branti on 08.16.12 at 11:48 pm

It is different in Brampton.

Brampton rocks!!!

We got more basement apartments than condos in Toronto.

#39 Futures | The Retiring Boomer™ on 08.16.12 at 11:49 pm

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#40 Soylent Green is People on 08.16.12 at 11:50 pm

Can someone eplain this post to me in simple english pls?

Pretend im fivevyears old

.
..
.
.

#41 Smartalox on 08.16.12 at 11:55 pm

@teresa,

You’re absolutely right, the bank will have you by the short and curlies. But don’t worry, they’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse, like consolidate your HELOC and credit card debt into your mortgage, but jogger the terms so that you can keep your 40 year amortization. Just a few bucks more per day. Of course, if you rack up a bunch more debt once your credit cards are consolidated into your mortgage, that’s your problem.

But generally, the banks will be happy to give you enough debt to ruin your life.

It’ll be interesting to see which banks follow these practices, and which banks get rid of their iffy mortgages by playing hardball with troubled clients at renewal. I think that forcing dodgy mortgages to other lenders will free up capital to start lending to businesses again, as the recovery takes hold and the demands for capital increases.

Those are the banks where I’ll put my money, not in credit unions that will become the lenders of last resort for many troubled mortgages.

#42 Tony on 08.16.12 at 11:56 pm

Re: #3 Ty on 08.16.12 at 10:00 pm

Until everyone tries to unload at the same time. Winnipeg will be lucky if the decline is only around 25 percent and a decade or more of flat line prices or values after that.

#43 Carpe Diem on 08.16.12 at 11:57 pm

I have friends that went to TO last year. Pipes bursted, house was destroyed and the insurance company paid for an awesome reno… This year they are moving back to Ottawa (yeah!) for new opps here.

It took no time at all to sell their place since the free renos = cash for them. Awesome!

I am very happy they made cash for one year of hell and are coming back home.

I fell sorry for the buyers since prices have only one place to go.

#44 Lager on 08.16.12 at 11:59 pm

Spoke with a realtor here in Canmore where condo-hotel (can only be owner occupied for a fixed period, and are managed like a hotel) prices are crashing. Developers have a handful of units listed and TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY units not listed! We’re a town of 18,000 including our second home owners from Cowtown.

The problem (besides oversupply)? CMHC won’t insure them.

#45 Tony on 08.17.12 at 12:03 am

Re: #15 OttawaMike on 08.16.12 at 10:34 pm

I’d wager heavily on a 55 percent decline in prices of those condos. With all the government jobs on the chopping block as they produce nothing the fall could be as much as 75 percent but i’d wager on 55 percent.

#46 Investx on 08.17.12 at 12:04 am

Boom!
Another insightful post!
Thanks Garth.

#47 Mr Buyer on 08.17.12 at 12:04 am

#6 Marco from Van on 08.16.12 at 10:02 pm
Cyclical economics…
……………………………………………………………….
This is not part of a cycle. This is the collapse of a real estate bubble. There is nothing that can be done to ward it off and there will be a massive deflation of real estate prices. Bubbles are very simple life forms. They inflate, top and collapse. Next time the government says hey there is free money for houses down at the bank lets keep the next 2 decades in mind.

#48 Dodged-A-Bullit-In-Alberta on 08.17.12 at 12:05 am

Greetings: A great post Mr. Turner. Two days before I first signed on to this blog, the wife and I walked away from a condo purchase in Calgary. Reason was that we had previously lived in the complex, prior to moving to Medicine Hat. While in this complex, I had observed crumbling concrete in the garage we owned as part of our first condo purchase. We were prepared to do another “investement” in Calgary as the wife was still working there although we had bought and paid for our existing home here in The Hat. However I pulled the plug on that condo purchase after reading the document package and seeing references to “engineering studies” about leaking patio doors, windows, and bad concrete in garages. Amazing thing was that the bank was willing to lend us 280, 000 bucks against our existing home, even though my income was 1 pension cheque, and the wifes’ wages as a nurse were about 70,000 dollars. Since then, I have been reading this blog, and thanking the powers that be, that we had truly Dodged-A Bullit- in -Alberta. Your blog is much appreciated!!

#49 Mr Buyer on 08.17.12 at 12:08 am

#1 siddelly on 08.16.12 at 9:41 pm
Ichiban….!
………………………………………………..
CoCo Ichiban

#50 Ryan Perich on 08.17.12 at 12:15 am

to answer Teresa’s question #26.
there is no “you can’t afford the payments” plea with the lender / bank. you owe them money, this is the payment schedule, if you don’t abide by it they send you nasty notices if you’re in arrears, and eventually sue you outright. (it happened to me, I know first hand). IF you stay in the property for an extended period of time (6-12 months) without moving out, even if you declare bankruptcy the lawyers can and will persue payments for that time you were a squatter, and that does survive bankruptcy you have to pay back AFTER your bankruptcy normal period is over (21 months if you make 2 grand a month, or $24,000 a year after taxes, or before if you can afford it).

the net result is :
either you sell the house now and pay back the lender
and the bank doesn’t even have to let you do that if you can’t cover the difference (the lender has to approve the sale, since they own the property)
or
let the lender sue you for several hundred thousand, you declare bankruptcy, walk away from the property, spend at least 21 months in bankruptcy, then another 6 years after being discharged of having that on your credit report.

so you better come up with the difference of payments, or else the market will be flooded with houses for sale by the banks and lenders….can’t happen here, we’re not the U.S.

#51 cranbrook on 08.17.12 at 12:24 am

To the one posting about the Canadian Rockies going up in value, (you must be from Alberta) I live in Cranbrook, Bc. Sold my 4000 sq ft rancher on 2.5 acres in Dec 2011. If i had of sold now, I would have taken a 40,000 $ loss. It is not different here. Google, Creston, Invemere, Fairmont, windemere, and Radium hot springs, All hurting very badly at the moment.

#52 EIT on 08.17.12 at 12:51 am

A rise in interest rates would turn this market upside down. People will lose their homes and more. If men like Flaherty and Carney have the power to raise rates and cause these losses, then they have the power to take by force ‘your’ property. When a man has the ability to remove by force the property of others this defines him as the master and the ‘victim’ is the slave. Its time we all wake up and see how far down the shitter we have gone.

#53 Determinism on 08.17.12 at 12:59 am

Who cares about sales volumes? I’ve been reading about sales volumes for years. A 21% drop in condo sales volume? So what. Prices barely moved -1%. Yawn.

Nobody cares about sales volumes. The only people who care about sales volumes are bears who’ve been wishing that there was a correlation between sales volumes and future prices for the last decade. Give it up. Apparently there is no correlation.

#54 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.17.12 at 1:08 am


“Make no mistake about it, the condo futures market is the Canadian equivalent of the global derivatives pyramid. Only more dangerous. Still believe what you read? Imagine what the real story is. Face it: this is a seismic shift no community will escape. We have left the age of inflation and rising asset values and entered a world of low-growth, quasi-deflation, deleveraging and structural unemployment.”

Along with the removal of money from the system plus the cycle change, this will be one of the more interesting couple of decades there has been in quite some time.

#21 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator — Well spotted. This indicates three wheels on his wagon, all going in different directions at the same time!
*
Credit Ratings Understanding octopus lingo is easier, and Foreign Debt reaches new highs; Economist US not improving, but this one says the opposite and 7:01 clip Double dip recession not gonna happen; Junk Bond Bubble Another one; Tumbling Dice Nearly time for a correction? Muni Bond Defaults Quite common; Philadelphia Fed Activity down for fourth month; Portuguese Gold runs out; US Coal Producers sign deal with India; Facebook New business venture; Two Bad Things Rosenberg; Merkel on Canada; Twelve homes for US$150K or under; BC wilds Country, not Vancouver; Seven Renters’ Cities; Tom Lee Bull and / or bear; Google vs. Amazon; Interest Rates Up in US, here too? Ikea’s Secret Fortune; Central Banks Can / should they do more?

Libor Won’t go away; Gold Rush; UK net worth rises Profits go to the 1%, 99% share almost zip; UK car production rises 22%; Finland preparing for break up of EZone, as well as investors; Latin America As one part picks up speed, another slows; China buying 74% of Barrick (Africa) gold; Next Six Cities for bankruptcy; Retirement? Fuggeddaboudit; New place for a home On top of a mall; Gas Prices Expect the same here; Mr. and Mississippi on verge of total shutdown.
*
Metaphors Live fast, die stupid; Sub This is the new Russian sub that was undetected in the GoM for a couple of weeks. Wonder if the sinkhole and the mess in the GoM are connected? If they blow, it would be sky-high; The Sun is a square oblong, with Trixie Treats hanging from the corners; Two Holes in One at 67; Ecuador Standing up to Brit. gestapo; 4:37 clip Easter Island mysteries revealed; Putin Ignores west, wants Asia; Johntraceptive Birth control pill for men.

#55 Derek R on 08.17.12 at 1:19 am

Ouch! When the wheels come off you know it won’t end well!

#56 wes coast on 08.17.12 at 1:20 am

My only fear now is that F and the peckerettes don’t have the intestinal fortitude to maintain common sense policy in the face crumbling prices. How quickly could they turn tail and bring back a 30 year amort? Or loosen CMHC rules again?

#57 tedfiftyfour on 08.17.12 at 1:34 am

“How can the real estate board count pre-build condo sales in its stats? There’s no title until occupancy period ends and the unit is registered with city hall. You’re just trading paper. It’s not real estate”

Its not true. Garth is blowing spoke up yr arse on this one. if its not MLS listed its not counted by CREA or TREB

#58 earlymidlifecrisis on 08.17.12 at 1:49 am

It’s only a 1/2 hour flight to Kelowna Garth. . . . Some realtors are in so much denial. A house i was looking at failed a home inspection and mine was dismissing his findings. Sigh.

#59 Bo Xilai on 08.17.12 at 1:56 am

It seems like The Condo Store Realty Inc. does everything for the prospective flippers of condo assignnments.

I hope these services extend to providing tax information regarding the taxable nature of these transactions. Of course, I assume these flippers are paying the capital gains taxes, because they never actually use those condos as principal residences.

#60 Jay Currie on 08.17.12 at 2:05 am

Here in my leafy suburb of Victoria the champagne was flowing and realtors were capturing digital cam shots of a very rare sighting of, well, a “sold” sign.

The house in question has been on the Dog Walk Index (DWI) since it was begun nearly two years ago. Of course in those far off days it was priced at $1,119,000. Bit high for a “rancher” we thought.

A couple of years and agents later, the official ask was $799,000. My fingers tell me that the official reduction was $400,000. 33% officially, but I can’t help but think that the offer was more like $760,000 which will round it up a bit.

Good for the sellers for facing reality; too bad it took them two years because it would have flown off the shelf at $850,000 in 2010.

#61 CriticalQ on 08.17.12 at 2:13 am

in other news:

Home Builder Confidence Surges As Everyone Buys Into The Illusion:

http://www.ftense.com/2012/08/home-builder-confidence-surges-as.html

#62 mamas boy on 08.17.12 at 2:44 am

hi Garth,

I tried explaining to my parents why real estate is such a bad investment, but they still think im crazy for renting. My friends who”own” think the same way about me. The pressure is tough to handle at times coming from all angles. What’s three best way to make them understand, or is it hopeless?

cheers

#63 Nick on 08.17.12 at 3:19 am

#25 DodgedBullet : if you’re young, you should pray for a falling market. Cheaper stocks = more stocks for you.

#64 Skip Breakfast on 08.17.12 at 3:47 am

Quasi-deflation? What is that? Let’s face it–we’re in a deflation, plain and simple. Few called it right, but the writing is now on the wall, and word is spreading. The only reason to call it a “quasi” deflation is that it’s still relatively early in the game: the worst is yet to come as deleveraging accelerates (sorry, I’m not even using the word “doom” or “financial apocalypse”–things can still get “worse” without invoking Armageddon). Oh, and you might call it “quasi” deflation because food prices rise. Prices of tomatoes do not dictate (or even indicate) whether we’re in a devastating deflationary period. Individual prices of “things” will rise and fall, but if the overall money supply (including credit!) is shrinking, so the overall value of assets most broadly across the marketplace. Less money = lower asset prices. For folks living above the poverty line, groceries can increase 20% in price without erasing the punishing effects of a true (not quasi) deflation: sure your groceries go up by $2000 per year but your house, car, boat, cottage, stocks, oil, stamp collection, diamond ring, swimming pool, motor home ALL PLUMMET IN PRICE. Food will get there eventually too. It’s just the last thing to fall in a deflation, because obviously we all need it no matter what.

#65 Ryan on 08.17.12 at 4:05 am

Ottawa Mike (#15) said:

“There are new built 600sq/ft units available in central Ottawa in the low twos. How much cheaper can they get with a glut and correction?

And please don’t ask me how long I have been selling condos for as I have no condo holdings except maybe eventually renting one.”
—————————————-

The condos should be in the low 200s but new 600 sq. ft. one bedroom condos are going for the low to mid 300s in downtown Ottawa. I live in Ottawa and I can attest to the fact that the condo market is pretty much dead. I was lucky enough to unload my condo a couple months ago. The market has gotten much worse since then and there have been very few existing condo sales in the Byward Market (where I live) since then.

#66 David on 08.17.12 at 4:05 am

People like Mr Kay will certainly miss those feverish days when he could sell out entire buildings that existed only as architectural renderings on a computer screen.
In the coming years ahead expect stories about fake landlords and condo brokers squatting in unused tenements.

#67 Buy? Curious? on 08.17.12 at 4:25 am

Garth, I love you. I really do. But sometimes your blog get my lycra thongs in a twist. These so-called real estate boards, high priests in the cult of real estate, why can’t they be held accountable for this constant manipulation and propaganda?

#68 Ticsee on 08.17.12 at 5:08 am

Hi,

I came from south-eastern Europe 1.5 years ago to live in this beautiful country. What I was surprised with was consumerism and “Casino” economy. I like living here but probably don’t understand everything quite well yet.
In this blog I am reading about the people with over 100k income who are deep in debt – that sounds really crazy.
I’ve seen wars, huge inflation, unemployment, deflation of housing and I’m not happy if I have to see some of that again.
I was always looking at owning of an apartment or a house only as a security – to have somewhere to live if something goes wrong – as freedom, independence of being a slave to the bank or to the job you hate.
I’m not so sure about that anymore.
Renting is probably better because you are really mobile (sometimes may be to much :). But if you are renting or saving for an apartment you have to try to keep the value of your savings (which is a hard task).

Almost everyone here agrees that cash is a good bet for times that are coming, but I have some concerns about which cash.
Garth said that he believes in USD, and didn’t say anything about CAD. When this bubble finally burst what will happen to CAD? Will it stay the same relative to USD? I would not like to lose lets say 30% if I have CAD cash.
What do you think about this?
Please share your thoughts.

Thanks and excuse me for my broken English.

#69 Stan on 08.17.12 at 5:08 am

After a half decade of doubt my life as a 30 year old recently matriculated grad student is starting to look a little better.
My friends all “own” in the suburbs but frankly, at this moment, I’ll take my mobility and 37k of student debt over their established careers and 350k mortgages.

#70 I'm stupid on 08.17.12 at 6:27 am

The clowns

I got pulled over again yesterday, the 9th time this year. The charge 5km over the speed limit then the clown that calls himself a police officer gave me another ticket because my renewal sticker was on the top right corner of my plate, he said it should be on the top left corner. I want to know who I pissed off to get 9 tickets all for 5km over the speed limit. The kicker, none of them had a radar gun. This is a new record last year I got 6 5km over. Then they don’t have the balls to show up to court because everyone knows the real reason for the stop.

How can I have faith or sympathy for police when I get harassed on a monthly bases?

#71 TaxHaven on 08.17.12 at 7:00 am

@#52 EIT

“If men like Flaherty and Carney have the power to raise rates and cause these losses, then they have the power to take by force ‘your’ property. ”

Only if ‘YOU’ borrowed someone else’s money to purchase that property. Mortgage money follows longer-term bond yields…and the mortgage lenders borrow short and lend long…

Part of our fractional reserve Ponzi scheme.

#72 sd on 08.17.12 at 7:08 am

Oh look – Germany back ECB QE. Inflation is being created. Price increase on the way in Europe.

… Oh but that’s not in Canada. Wait for it.

#73 neo on 08.17.12 at 7:10 am

at #53

Declining sales volumes only matter when inventory begins to spike, which is the case with 416 condos. And they were down 3% in the 416 so far in August not 1%.

#74 Beach Girl on 08.17.12 at 8:05 am

#70 I’m Stupid

What was the real reason for the stop? And why are you being harassed? I am not a large cop fan. They have some uses though.

Drive with a nasty, obnoxious dog, Cops don’t like dealing with animals, then the SPCA. Too much of a hassle, I’ve been told.

Could also be very wrong.

#75 House Horny Housewife on 08.17.12 at 8:07 am

Hello Garth,

I still think that it all depends on what you are selling. This is why there is such confusion here among the bloggers about why some things are still selling well and other things are not.

Most condominiums were never worth their asking price to begin with. People were overpaying simply because condo living was “a la mode” and some would have done anything to get in. Of course overpaying for something just because it is in fashion is financial suicide since eventually fashion changes on a whim and you are left paying the bill for something that has gone out of style. This also goes for certain detached and semi-detached properties.

When buying a property, location is key and should be first and foremost in one’s mind. After that, you need to look at features such as the size and layout of the property. Then you need to investigate legal items to ensure that there are no servitudes or rights of way or whatever that make the property worthless. On top of that, you need to see if the property has any additional unique features which cannot be bought such as a nice view or lots of old trees which provide privacy and charm. Then and only then do you look at the house. If the house is in a reasonable condition, solidly built, of a good size with good room flow and it doesn’t have any insurmountable obstacles, like being built out of asbestos or something (although even this can be fixed for a huge price), then you have something worth something.

Real value transcends trends and prevails over time. A stylish modern interior will be worth nothing in ten years .. it may actually even be a liability since a buyer would have to pay to change it. Condos are popular because they concentrate mainly on stylish interiors. This is to hide the fact that they are what they are … tiny boxes situated within busy, often ugly industrial or commercial areas. Many of these things are also not well built and one would only be able to see this if they actually showed up when they were putting up the structure. The walls are often made of paper so you can hear your neighbour snoring next door and your balcony, if you have one, is often tiny and adjacent to your someone’s BBQ or something.

I am sure that as far as condos go, only the ones that are situated in great areas (for the GTA this would equate perhaps with say the Bloor West Village / High Park areas or Yorkville or some of the lakefronts etc..) AND that have reasonable spaces are worth buying. I still remember some of the beautiful condominiums that they used to build. Beautiful large condos on Bay Street near Bloor or the ones on the Waterfront with green spaces all around. These were gorgeous condos which took advantage of the height and viewpoints that this height would bring .. in addition to all of the light .. they were furnished with gorgeous hardwood floors, real wooden French doors to taken advantage of the light in each room, large open spaces and large verandas overlooking the city or the lake. I am quite certain that THESE condos are still saleable at decent prices.

As for all of those toasters that you see everywhere .. yeah it’s about time those ugly things came down in price and that people woke up and smelled the coffee. Plunking down $3,000.00 worth of granite, $5,000.00 worth of stainless steel appliances and a $1,000.00 glass mosaic backsplash in the kitchen and then painting the bathroom a spa light blue with $100.00 fluffy white towels, white orchids and lots of mirrors everywhere does not equal $500,000.00 worth of property value. DUH !!

As for those speckers, well … you don’t make much unless you risk much so if they lose, they cannot say they weren’t ready for it. I just hope that banks and other lenders have been covering their asses throughout all of this and that they are well protected because I as a tax payer don’t want to lose my shirt having to bail them out.

Oh, and real estate agents have their use and one should be aware of this. Their job is to do the leg work (searching and setting up appointments, legal, offer presentation etc..). A buyer should know what they want and how much they want to spend on it before they even approach an agent. If you let an agent talk you into something that doesn’t suit you or that you cannot afford, it is not the agent’s fault but squarely YOURS and yours alone. If everyone kept this in mind, we wouldn’t be in this stupid mess.

HHHW

#76 TurnerNation on 08.17.12 at 8:09 am

I follow Toronto’s C01 condo area. The red dot fury on MLS show no signs of abatement, but on the daily
TO-SOLDS emails I’m seeing only a few sales of prime units only.

For fun the realtors throw in some joke C01 home listings. Here’s another reno’d, skinny, semi. Already the price was dropped from 1.85m down to 1.815m. At least has a pool.

Guess what, it faces onto a hotel/condo’s service entrance, delivery and garage doors, and garbage cans and proapane tank storage. Essentially, a small commercial zone.
The sights and smells.

For entertainment purposes only, here’s the listing:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12222981&PidKey=-1663516708

#77 maxx on 08.17.12 at 8:40 am

“…and the city’s horrified realtors are on track for a rerun of 2008 in the final four months of the year. And this is all based on numbers the industry has provided. Imagine what the real story is….”

We may be on track for a rerun of 2008, however this time, it’s going to last one hell of a lot longer.

If I were a realtard, I’d start skills retraining…yesterday.

#78 kim on 08.17.12 at 8:53 am

Here’s what’s playing out in the marketplace right now. Speckers and flippers anxious to unload are self marketing or listing. Developers/builders who previously turned a blind eye to this activity because their own sales were robust are now exercising that clause in the agreement of P&S forbidding buyers from assigning or selling until a certain date. This of course is because builder sales are soft and they are sitting on unsold inventory. Cease and desist letters are being sent out by builders to buyers engaged in this activity. If a buyer continues to market the property the builder has the right to take back the deal, resell the unit and come after the buyer for any shortfall in price. This my friends is a sign of the times.

#79 torontorocks on 08.17.12 at 8:58 am

Ahh Leslieville. A great location in the city and a total shithole. Maybe one street that you might consider ‘safe’ in an area packed with crack. You can get to a fancy restaurant and overpay then quickly get out of dodge – kind of like the pack that leaves their hotel in Detroit to watch a Red Wings game then scurries back after the game because its unsafe to be out at night. If you’re not on the right street, you’re dead. That area had a similar run-up in the 90’s then plopped, almost at the same prices its at today. Never lifted off.

#80 Ret on 08.17.12 at 8:59 am

Of course the CRA is all over those flippers and speckers on Kijiji and Craigslist making sure that they pay their taxes owed on those “off the books” re-assignments.

Yeah, right.

#81 Toronto_CA on 08.17.12 at 9:01 am

#68 Ticsee on 08.17.12 at 5:08 am

The Canadian dollar’s relative value to other currencies (US$ mostly) is dependent on two things: oil prices and our interest rates. If either of those go up, then our dollar will go up. We have a petro dollar, as much as Flaherty likes to say that the dollar is strong because of our ‘strong fundamentals’ or whatever tripe he said at that press conference this week.

Also, if our interest rates rise before other countries, say to pop a housing bubble, then our dollar would go up big time. See: Australia, where the currency has exploded in value the last few years (higher commodity prices and higher interest rates to blame).

That’s my take anyway.

#82 Toronto_CA on 08.17.12 at 9:50 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/save-up-for-a-down-payment-the-young-adults-struggle/article4484367/

Tripe from the G&M written by a mortgage broker pusher:

“TD’s advice for first-timers is to aim for 20 per cent down. But simple math shows that a 20 per cent down payment could take some people over a decade to accumulate.”

And he doesn’t conclude that this shows a ridiculous disconnect between current house prices and current incomes??? If it takes an average couple a decade or more to save up 20%, then something is wrong with one of those two things (prices or incomes).

Also love :
“I would suspect that on a median basis, just to get in the housing market (with 5 per cent down), would take about four to five years of saving. Cobbling together a down payment is a big challenge for first-time buyers,” Mr. Porter says.

“Frankly, I think that’s one of the reasons why the government hasn’t raised the minimum down payment. It’s almost a nuclear option.”

Go nuclear.

#83 maxx on 08.17.12 at 9:50 am

#15 OttawaMike on 08.16.12 at 10:34 pm

“There are new built 600sq/ft units available in central Ottawa in the low twos. How much cheaper can they get with a glut and correction?”

True enough, but many of those don’t include parking.

#84 OttawaMike on 08.17.12 at 9:55 am

#65 Ryan on 08.17.12 at 4:05 am
#45 Tony on 08.17.12 at 12:03 am

I should clarify that what I was referring to is the newly branded area of Centretown South. Buildings around there are advertised starting at $285k, I know I said low twos but should have said high twos. Strata fees vary widely also with some buildings around $300 while others $700.
http://www.condosottawa.com/Downtown/

Speaking of re-branding, I love how the realtors have started calling Vanier “the French Quarter”. It just somehow sounds better than “Crackheads and Hookers Quarter”

#85 Grantmi on 08.17.12 at 10:00 am

#70 I’m stupid on 08.17.12 at 6:27 am
The clowns……

You’re still stupid! What does this have to do with real estate. We don’t care.

#86 Toronto S on 08.17.12 at 10:07 am

I’ve been waiting six years for a market “correction”. If the market corrects now, will it correct enough to wipe out all of the gains I missed earning over six years? The thought depresses me somewhat. If we’re only expecting 15-20%, then I should have probably bought six years ago…

#87 45north on 08.17.12 at 10:09 am

siddelly: Ichiban

my favourite bakery, they’re on vacation, meet you there next week

[email protected]

#88 jimmypage on 08.17.12 at 10:14 am

New heloc rules at td bank starting monday.

#89 Country Girl on 08.17.12 at 10:20 am

#26 Teresa
Consider selling now to lose the stress of debt and ties to the bank.

#90 Ron on 08.17.12 at 10:22 am

Re: post 76

I took a look the place you posted on Google Maps. The location is “50 Stewart Street, Toronto”. It looks like a ghetto in the middle of a construction war zone. 1.815 million for that? lol. What a joke. Can you imagine spending all that money FOR THAT? I’d be embarrassed to even live there.

here’s the ridicidulous listing: http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12222981&PidKey=-1663516708

#91 cramar on 08.17.12 at 10:22 am

#25 DodgedBullet on 08.16.12 at 11:07 pm
meanwhile my portfolio (thanks for the investment advice, Garth!) has grown 5.91% in 1 year.

This number doesn’t include dividends.

Thanks again for the education.

Ben.

—————

Well Ben, this is good. Sounds like you have some form of preferreds and love the fact that they have increased in value more than the dividends. Best of all worlds since, unlike real estate, preferreds never go down in value. Yet I have a feeling that ‘shock & awe’ will be what is ahead in all world financial markets in the coming year. Be sure to let us know exactly one year from now how much your portfolio has increased in value again.

#92 Industrial Guy on 08.17.12 at 10:44 am

Windsor is GREAT! Three bedroom homes under $100,000 and all the cross border shopping you could want. Take the city bus to Detroit. The perfect place for someone retiring in the GTA. Sell your half million dollar Toronto hovel and buy 3 houses and a dozen Kia Fortes in Windsor ……..Of course, if you need a job … Windsor is the last place to look. The 401 between Trenton and Toronto is called, “The Highway of Heroes”. The 401 between Guelph and Windsor should be named the “Highway of Unemployment” The factories which dot the landscape are now just warehouses, filled with imported goods from low wage countries. The building which once housed Canada’s largest manufacturer of automated component feeding equipment is now the home of a municipal food bank.

Daily electricity consumption in Ontario has dropped by 20%. Warehouses use much less electricity than manufacturing plants. . The Canadian dollar is at par with the US dollar.. More plants will be closing soon. The collapsing real estate market is just a symptom of a much larger crisis. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s vision of Canada as hewers of wood and drawers of water is terribly short sighted. He’s willing to gamble our future prosperity almost solely on the demand for our resource by others (China). Since almost none of these resources are located in Southern Ontario … any recovery from the collapse of the manufacturing sector will be slow if at all.

The Government of Ontario should focus on building infrastructure in Sudbury, Timmins, Sault St Marie and quickly make upgrades to highways (400/69, 11& 7). Both the Federal and Provincial Governments need to support the installation of high speed Internet service in rural communities in Northern Ontario. Unemployed skilled workers n SW Ontario should basically give up on trying finding work close to home … It’s increasingly unlikely secure, industrial wage jobs will be coming back to Ontario anytime soon. Go North, go West … but just get out of the dead zone.

A quick scan by MLS.ca of the Windsor real estate market provides a list of 3043 Properties, 625 available today are under $100,000! Can you imagine buying a three bedroom house in historic Amherstburg or Lasalle for under $75,000? You can now. Listings in greater London have exploded to 3201 Properties. Over half are under $250,000
A mass migration out of Southern Ontario will no doubt have severe social and economic consequences …. but honestly, it’s painfully obvious ….. Your Federal Government doesn’t care about you or your family. Well, not unless you live in Alberta.

#93 45north on 08.17.12 at 10:49 am

I’m stupid: I got pulled over again yesterday, the 9th time this year.

Then they don’t have the balls to show up to court because everyone knows the real reason for the stop.

so what’s the real reason?

#94 charade on 08.17.12 at 11:08 am

When does House Horny Housewife get her own blog!?! Always a sensible view.

#95 David McDonald on 08.17.12 at 11:20 am

Hi Garth,

I have been asking myself the same question as Ticsee #68. What will be the effect on the Canadian dollar of a real estate crash combined with a separtiste government in Quebec? Is the US dollar safer given the debt ceiling and horrific spending cuts scheduled for January 2013?

I think it was wise to sell my house last year in order to diversify (I’m near retirement and will have a good pension) but it’s been tough to know what to do with the money.

#96 PoorgEoisie on 08.17.12 at 11:35 am

I’m with #53, way to tell it like it is: only idiots care about sales volumes.
Two weeks ago I bought a bag of apples for 4 bucks and I am now selling each individual apple for 4,000. No buyers yet and if I don’t sell any this week I’ll raise it to 8k an apple,why? Because I am super smart just like my buddy determinism.

#97 Just(not)AnotherSheeple on 08.17.12 at 11:36 am

Toronto “416” mid-month sales stats
======================================

Big changes in the sentiment with now double digits or near double digits sales decline YOY in all four segments – detached, semis, towns and condos:

http://i47.tinypic.com/se870i.jpg

#98 Edward on 08.17.12 at 11:43 am

It’s happening *everywhere*. I live in the blackfly/mosquito-infested, irrelevant city of North Bay. Yesterday I ran into an old high school friend and when conversation turned to jobs he said, “I just started work at the liquor store. …I also work for a real estate firm here, but it’s a little slow at the moment.”

#99 jess on 08.17.12 at 11:59 am

hordes in the “secrecy jurisdictions”

automatic exchange secrecy juridictions
Taxpaying made easier
August 16, 2012

see- Thu 02 Feb 2009
Dictionary helps crack case of notorious Polish serial offender
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0219/1224241418104.html

…”This is the systematic and periodic transmission of “bulk” taxpayer information collected by the source country to the country of residence concerning income from dividends, interest, royalties, salaries, pensions, and so on. Denmark has the most relationships of this kind, sending information to 70 other countries.

http://oecdinsights.org/2012/08/16/taxpaying-made-easier/

#100 Mister Obvious on 08.17.12 at 12:18 pm

# 36 Victoria Tea Party

“What is actually happening in the markets can be captured by one word: Directionless.”
————————

Really? The TSX is showing a definite uptick in the last month or so. And the intermittent ‘bottoms’ have been generally higher and higher since mid May. Have a look:

http://tinyurl.com/26wawyw

Regardless, even in a directionless market, carefully chosen investments still pay reasonable dividends and distributions (unlike residential real estate).

#101 Old Man on 08.17.12 at 12:19 pm

MB the Davisville area is good to look at after the bustout, and take the hypothetical block formed by Yonge, St. Clair, Mount Pleasant, and Eglinton. Do your homework with google mapping via satellite, and walk the area looking for stores and services that support future values. Look for potential targets, and spend time walking the area to get the feel of it all, as a longterm project. Its kind of like establishing a romance for a future marriage, as both become expensive investments, so do your homework.

#102 siddelly on 08.17.12 at 12:20 pm

Brian Wilson and crew are 70 years old but they can still entertain 12,000 wrinkly boomers for 2 solid hours. It’s quite a sight to see those same frantic hoardes try to get on a subway train all at once.

#49 Mr Buyer

Katsu Kure

#103 It won't happen in Regina on 08.17.12 at 12:25 pm

Name’s Chad , I’m no loser renter cause I own! Married to Tara-Lynn and a baby on the way. I don’t have a clue about personal finances or the economy, I have a truck with truckballs, wear my hat backwards and like my sunglasses with a thick white frame . I also have a ski-do and a trailer.

All my friends are homeowners too and they say that:

Regina is just catching up to the rest of canada
we have the roughriders
too many potash projects coming up
weyburn oil
we have wascana park!
everybody wants to live here
we’re just catching up to the rest of canada … damn already said that
lots of a-rabs, and filipinos , and they buy buy and buy!
we have the roughriders
the economy (whatever that is) is booming
construction permits have already doubled cause everybody wants to live here
we have pat fiacco
we’re getting a target!
we have a five guys burgers and fries (vancouver doesn’t, how about THAT!)
we have the rcmp museum
everybody wants to live in regina, cause it rhymes with fun

so yeah, it will never happen in Regina.

#104 I stand corrected! on 08.17.12 at 12:44 pm

In 2008 I was living in Asia and condos would advertise, “buy a condo, get a Mini”, or “buy a condo and we’ll furnish it for you”. Do you think we will start to see crazy incentives from the developers here?

#105 IM in C on 08.17.12 at 12:53 pm

Evidence that the real estate market is being manipulated, and not just by the real estate industry.

http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2012/07/13/shadow-reo-as-much-as-90-percent-of-foreclosed-properties-are-h/?source=Patrick.net

But hey , I hear you wail, thats the US; it’s different here! Hmm .. where have we heard that before. In a sense, it is different here. The banks and CMHC won’t tell you about all the shadow inventory already out there.

#106 world view on 08.17.12 at 12:55 pm

I cant believe that a 12% drop in vancouver is ignored by most news media or at best sugar-coated. A 12% drop in an asset which is bought on 90% leverage puts the owner underwater in a year!

#107 dd on 08.17.12 at 12:56 pm

Balance reporting – from the other side.

Report: Soros Unloads All Investments in Major Financial Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/report-soros-unloads-all-investments-in-major-financial-stocks-invests-over-100-million-in-gold_08162012?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+SHTFplan+%28SHTF+Plan+-+When+It+Hits+The+Fan%2C+

#108 cramar on 08.17.12 at 1:19 pm

#92 Industrial Guy

Can you imagine buying a three bedroom house in historic Amherstburg or Lasalle for under $75,000? You can now.

————

No I can’t! I dunno what you are looking at, but the only houses under $75k in Amherstburg are mobile homes but for two (according to realtor.ca). Neither of which I’d want to live it. There are some pretty decent ones under $150k. I know since I have been looking for two years Windsor and south. That is why we are moving to Leamington.

#109 Ahsan on 08.17.12 at 1:21 pm

Got this in my inbox today from a mortgage broker. This is madness! He is suggesting that you borrow money you are about to lose!

Good morning everyone.

I hope your summer is going well. The Ex opens today so autumn can’t be too far away.

I’ve attached an article about property values. If values do decrease this may be the time to take advantage of the equity you’ve built in your home. Consider consolidating debt, financing your children’s post secondary education, topping up your RRSP, purchasing a vacation home, etc. With the new restrictive rules the federal government has placed on all of us and potential future value depreciation, our current refinance opportunities may diminish.

Thanks to all of you who were generous enough to refer mortgage clients my way over the last few months. I will be randomly picking a winner for an ipad over the next couple of days. Stay tuned for the announcement.

#110 Old Man on 08.17.12 at 1:40 pm

#108 did you know that Leamington is the number one choice for a retirement haven? A great town as use to own 11 Georgia Avenue, but my greatest fear is one day H.J. Heinz might close down, as it is a one horse town; the wages being paid there out out of this world that rivals any city center in Canada – much too high!

#111 Realtor # 1 on 08.17.12 at 2:03 pm

Last year mid August was also 6% lower than six weeks previous. Inventory is also down y/y.

#112 Devore on 08.17.12 at 2:17 pm

#57 tedfiftyfour

Its not true. Garth is blowing spoke up yr arse on this one. if its not MLS listed its not counted by CREA or TREB

It is true. There are tons of assignments listed on MLS. It’s still not real estate.

#113 cramar on 08.17.12 at 2:23 pm

#110 Old Man

Well we chose to retire there. :) As long as people buy ketchup maybe things will be okay. I cannot see them shutting down the plant and moving to Mexico since all the tomatoes are grown locally. Just in the last year the additional acres of greenhouse construction is amazing. But then, if ketchup could be made in Mexico and imported cheaper into Canada…. I trust multinational agribiz companies about as far as I can lift a ton of tomatoes. In fact I’d trust RE agents far more.

#114 Louis on 08.17.12 at 2:25 pm

Can you do a webcast from Vancouver so that those in Toronto can hear what you have to say? it would be appreciated!.

#115 Old Man on 08.17.12 at 2:28 pm

Now love to pull Garth’s leg a bit out of jest, and we all know he sold out in Vancouver with 1200 seats going fast. I heard this rumour that most of the reserved seats were booked by women; what can I say about this all? Garth have fun, and wish you a safe trip, and enjoy the attention.

#116 Canadian Watchdog on 08.17.12 at 2:32 pm

Woman are either shopping less or just wearing less.

http://postimage.org/image/wsome4ak7/

#117 truth hammer on 08.17.12 at 2:50 pm

In the last few weeks we’ve seen a huge roll over in the markets from defensive to cyclicals….the sleath bull has been missed by most…lucky me. Will a rush to greed leave many pref’s underwater? It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen capital losses on fixed income.

The last 11 days of September have traditionally been the years bug a boo….but this is a presidential year…..a cycle that has produced positive markets 99% of the time.

Romney has pulled ahead of Obama across the individual state count ( as we know in the states it’s not votes but votes from the electoral college of states) . Is this 10% surge in commodity and machinery issues a signal from the smart money that business may be improving on the idea ( oh joy) that the Obamatons are turfed out and the country can get back to free markets?

The last two weeks have added $100,000 to a million dollar account ( if you had that much invested-for the sake of easy math) as opposed to having prefs and bonds paying an aggragate sub 5% return for the entire year. Being ‘in the market’ seems like a no brainer at this point.

Better hurry up and sell the barn before you miss out on all this lushy money.

#118 Mithan on 08.17.12 at 2:52 pm

Garth quote: “Meanwhile, VanCity continues to liquify. Sales crashed 18% in July. Prices are now down 12.4%. The dollar value of sales melted by 28.4%, and the city’s horrified realtors are on track for a rerun of 2008 in the final four months of the year. And this is all based on numbers the industry has provided. Imagine what the real story is.”

Good comment, and the average person STILL wants to thinks things are great and prices can only go up, so imagine what happens when that changes in the next few months?

Garth, two things:
-You should try and get somebody to video tape your speech and put it on YouTube.

-Second, I would love to see you discuss Investment strategies more, or perhaps start tossing in a few blogs that update your Money Road book, which I am currently reading.

We all know that Canada has a housing bubble, but I would like to read more about your opinion on the business cycle and where you think we are headed in the next few years.

#119 I'm stupid on 08.17.12 at 3:15 pm

#74 Beach girl
#93 45North

I’ll tell you the reason I keep getting pulled over. I drive an expensive sports car and I look really young. So when they see me the first thing they do is run the plates. I’m 33 years old but have all my hair perfect teeth and am in fantastic physical condition. I was blessed with good genes. They assume the car is stolen but they have no right to stop me without cause so they make things up. Its a big waste of time. I’ve wasted 6 days this year in court and not once have I been charged. It always gets thrown out for no evidence even if the cop shows up. Im not a lawyer or ticket guy so it’s not based on talent. If there are any cops reading this blog can you please explain to me why my balls are being broken for no apparent reason? I have never been charged with a crime, I don’t sell drugs. It might just be a case of jealousy because it’s always the same type of cop (under 35 years old). If you wanted nicer things you should have chosen a different profession.

#120 Casual Observer on 08.17.12 at 3:30 pm

#104 I stand corrected!

In 2008 I was living in Asia and condos would advertise, “buy a condo, get a Mini”, or “buy a condo and we’ll furnish it for you”. Do you think we will start to see crazy incentives from the developers here?

I’ve seen incentives such as no condo fees for a year, or free upgrades to the unit. I suspect we will see more “creative” incentives in the not too distant future.

It’s a way for builders to maintain price-point. They’d rather give away thousands in incentives instead of lower prices because it might scare away potential buyers if they suspected the price might drop.

There is nothing more frustrating than knowing your neighbor paid thousands less for their identical unit.

#121 Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 08.17.12 at 3:45 pm

#113 Mithan

“You should try and get somebody to video tape your speech and put it on YouTube.”

We did this at the FASTGFBDCParty and then all hell broke loose at the grand finale when the bearded mystic oracle, all knowing, all seeing, gifted sage that runs this pathetic blog thoroughly trounced Carney and Ron Paul in the climatic debate to end the festivities. That coward Carney wanted no part of a video that showed him to be the peckerhead that he is and so ill matched in a debate with the Harley riding, financial prognosticator without equal, Captain Garth. Coward Carney grabbed the video recorder out of the unsuspecting Bubbles and proceeded to do an east coast jig on it. Needless to say, Sony quality aside, the machine and tape were ruined. Good party regardless as all the blog dogs who came can attest to.

#122 Nick on 08.17.12 at 3:52 pm

#62 mamas boy

Tell them you save money by renting. During the first 12 months after my friend bought a duplex in Montreal, 9000$ out of the 12000$ he gave the bank in monthly payments went to pay interest on the loan. You should have seen the look on his face. That didn’t feel good.

#123 IM in C on 08.17.12 at 4:13 pm

@113 Cramar
WRT the ketchup plant. Don’t be too sure of it’s continuing operation. There are food processing plants all over SW Ontario closing

#124 jess on 08.17.12 at 4:32 pm

Maastricht and All That

Wynne Godley

In 1992 he warned that without shared fiscal policy to replace currency movements there would be problems with monetary union in Europe.[2^ “Maastricht and All That”. London Review of Books

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that

…”. It took a group largely composed of bankers (the Delors Committee) to reach the conclusion that an independent central bank was the only supra-national institution necessary to run an integrated, supra-national Europe.

Delors Commission
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delors_Commission

#125 Macrath on 08.17.12 at 4:33 pm

#92 Industrial Guy

It`s clear 4 lane sailing all the way to North Bay and they are working on 11 north. Ontera fiber optic loop covering the north is installed and running although the average Joe at the cottage is still on dial-up.
They have been spending a lot of money perhaps preparing for a mass migration out of Southern Ontario like during the depression years.

Mean while the arsonists are burning down what`s left of Welland . The old high school, Hennings and now an apartment block. Now we find out Marine land is a long time animal torture center! I`m too depressed to continue.

#126 broadway skytrain on 08.17.12 at 4:46 pm

dd on 08.17.12 at 12:56 pm
Balance reporting – from the other side.

Report: Soros Unloads All Investments in Major Financial Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold

http://www.shtfplan.com
————————————
whatever message this website may have is lost on me as splashed up on the front page are ads for something like ‘make your own cheap power’ and when i click on it i see a video of fradulent deception,lies,and steaming bs far worse than any realtor would spew forth

the site in your link must be way hard up for cash

#127 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 08.17.12 at 5:09 pm

#115 Old Man on 08.17.12 at 2:28 pm

Now love to pull Garth’s leg a bit out of jest, and we all know he sold out in Vancouver with 1200 seats going fast. I heard this rumour that most of the reserved seats were booked by women; what can I say about this all? Garth have fun, and wish you a safe trip, and enjoy the attention.

==================================

I know this for a fact.

If you sign your name as Bubbles, Trixi, Foxy, Misty etc…. Garth lets you sit on stage.

Boy is Garth gonna be pissed off when a bunch of longshoremen show up.

#128 Old Man on 08.17.12 at 5:34 pm

The Ontario Government is closing down the train link for Northern Ontario called the Northlander which leaves Union Station in Toronto in the morning next month. I have mixed feelings about it all, but will destroy transportation for many cities in Ontario, so what will happen to Real Estate values up north? This was a great train, but cost too much, so now what?

#129 Mark W on 08.17.12 at 5:56 pm

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Number+young+people+leaving+soars+likely+reasons+include/7096450/story.html

Does story number one contradict story number two?

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Vancouver+third+most+livable+city+world+Economist/7095801/story.html

#130 Ken on 08.17.12 at 6:06 pm

#128 Old Man on 08.17.12 at 5:34 pm

The Northlander train cancellation will have no impact on RE values in Northern Ontario. The demise of the lumber industry already destroyed RE values in some communities but those in the agriculture areas continue to do fairly well. Most currently at risk are the base metal and gold mining communities.

#131 Triplenet on 08.17.12 at 6:07 pm

#119 stupid

Trade your car in for a Citation jet.
Homeland and CSIS will make sure you’ll be hassle free unless you are a nefarious character. They will be in court – dont worry.

#132 Canadian Watchdog on 08.17.12 at 6:10 pm

Charts: Vancouver daily stats courtesy of vancouverpeak.com.

Daily Sold Listings
Daily New Listings
Daily Listings To Sold Spread
Daily Price Changes
Total Inventory

Reminds me of this picture for some reason.

#133 John on 08.17.12 at 6:24 pm

Toronto S wrote:

“I’ve been waiting six years for a market “correction”. If the market corrects now, will it correct enough to wipe out all of the gains I missed earning over six years? The thought depresses me somewhat. If we’re only expecting 15-20%, then I should have probably bought six years ago…”
———

It’s really tough to think clearly on this one.

Say you bought six years ago. Do you really think you’d have enough sense to see the global picture and admit that you gained absolutely nothing?

What’s better, believing you have “money” when you don’t or just being a normal human being looking to live well and offer value TODAY.

If you’re going to argue that those people who bought in six years ago have “equity”, go ahead. The “correction” as you call it will say otherwise. The old way is done. The guy with the “extra” 237 grand is a dupe for the ponzi. Nothing more.

Some will get it and try to do something to keep some of the money. There’s something too that…a fraction of people will “win” somehow.

It’s hardly the issue.

Sure, lots of people don’t believe the obvious: We are a society where the members depend on each other. The extreme imbalances will not stand. They just can’t.

A better use of time ( other than lamenting entry into a useless international ponzi scheme) is to GET ON THE NET and start filtering. Find out what’s going on and cut the crap over the reverse gear. Who cares how much “further ahead” those people you refer to are? It’s reverse gear after all.

It’s not Canadian as an identity…but independence, being informed and offering value in a community is real living. The other is just nonsense.

#134 jess on 08.17.12 at 6:26 pm

Washington Supreme Court Issues MERS Smackdown – 08/17/2012 – Yves Smith
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/08#bC00SpwkTsv1U8y1.99

http://www.courts.wa.gov/opinions/pdf/862061.opn.pdf

#135 Smoking Man on 08.17.12 at 6:35 pm

Funny est. Thing just happend

Checking into the Hillton. Used my time tested trick to get a better rate. I’m at the counter rate is 250. I call the reservation line on my cell phone. I ask what was the rate this morning. She’s says 149. Then say can you tell my friend. They don’t believe me. I had the to the reservation chic and the person on the line says to her. 149. Ba hahahah I get room for 149

Their is a family for isreal tourist. Next to me I said then what is wrong with u people. Paying retail

They just stared at me.

I crack my self. Up

#136 Jen on 08.17.12 at 6:48 pm

@I’m stupid

Is there purpose to your blabbing here? What is the connection to the topic at hand?

#137 truth hammer on 08.17.12 at 7:16 pm

Markets respond to Bernake priming the pump……..and you thought that the Fed was neutral……silly investor.

“Ben Hits the Gas

OK, this is going to start your morning with a short drive off into the economic weeds but it is really, really important because is shows how politics and money work in fine relief. In the latest Federal Reserve H.6 Money Supply figures out Thursday, we see the Fed is orchestrating an increase in the M1 money supply at an 11.3 percent annual rate based on the three month run rate.

Furthere, the M2 rate is also going up. A week or so back it was running a 5.3% annualized rate basis the three month data.

You can see what I call the “gulch” in the Fed’s behavior – the dip in the six-month data:

There are only a couple of possible inferences from this:

The Fed is being loose to goose markets over resistance at the S&P 1,422-1,425 range once past options expiration (today) so going into next week. Or…

They are printing to bail out Europe….or,

They are seeing the financial cliff America is about to drive over and this could be the leading edge of hyper-inflation as a fix-all.”

Bwahahahahahaha….it’s election season you nitwit……of course theres a fix in. The Obamatons are scared witless running second……..suddenly we see improved housing, equities…..and cash cash cash….we could be in for a helluva stock market run……who cares what happens after November.

I’ve already made enough for a luxury winter in Thailand. Thank you Mr Bernake and Mr Obama……thx for restoing my faith in our crooked democracy.

#138 TurnerNation on 08.17.12 at 7:22 pm

“the global derivatives pyramid.”

I’d expect this tone from a doomer or metals site.

Let’s face it: Derivatives are used for hedging. As it should be.

Disclosure: still short silver via ZSL.US + monthly covered call income.

#139 jess on 08.17.12 at 7:53 pm

electronic data systems eds =hp

======================
MERS SystemMERS began as a project in October 1993 when Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae produced a White Paper about the need for an electronic mortgage registration system, and the MERS acronym was coined soon thereafter. The Mortgage Bankers Association got involved and MERS was incorporated in October 1995. MERS awarded a contract to Electronic Data Systems (EDS) to develop and service the technology systems, and MERS was officially launched in April 1997. [10]

MERS serves several mortgage industry purposes. It permits lenders and investors to transfer mortgages without recording assignments in local public registries, saving them recording fees. It enables consumers, title companies and other real estate professionals to easily identify the current holders of registered mortgages and obtain discharges despite any transfers of the mortgages or mergers or acquisitions of the lenders and investors in interest that may otherwise make it difficult to trace ownership. Information contained in the MERS System can help to identify possible mortgage fraud involving the identity of a prospective buyer and owner-occupancy issues. The centralized database of MERS can also help detect property flipping schemes and purchases. from wiki

=========

#140 cramar on 08.17.12 at 8:07 pm

#119 I’m stupid

About 26 years ago I knew of a 70-year old sugar-daddy named Steward. Apparently he didn’t graduate high school, but ended up owning a lumber yard. He sold, and became a millionaire. He loved badgering anyone with a university education by mocking how little money they made compared to him. He drove around town in a Corvette with 20-year olds in furs that he bought them. The first time he was stopped for speeding, he mocked the cop’s education and salary. From then the vette was a target and he could not drive across town without being stopped. He finally got hassled so much he sold the vette and bought a Buick or something, still cursing educated cops. I’m sure you are not like this idiot Steward. It could just be jealousy, but your fate may be the same. Either move, get rid of the sports car, or get a beater to drive around town and use the sports car for out-of-town outings.

#141 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.17.12 at 8:14 pm


#137 truth hammer — “. . . of course theres a fix in. The Obamatons are scared witless running second . . .” — Now that GS and a lot of other bankers have turned away from him, don’t be too surprised to see martial law (and a few FFs) in the immediate future. Soros hasn’t finished his work yet.
*
Deleveraging Needed US$28 trillion in 48 months. Now would be a good time to pay back all those CDS / derivatives to balance the books; Something Big Investors withdrew US$3.6 bln. last week, and Govt. ammo May go with previous link; Unemployment and famine. What a combination; No One Is Too Big to avoid prosecution. Damn right. They should be strung up by their balls, and left to rot in the searing sun; 0:58 clip US taxpayers subsidized the spontaneously combusting vehicles; Russia prepared Because China is beginning a new gold-backed currency; Break Free of Brussels; Air France panhandling Things must be really tight on the aviation front; Three Ugly Predictions; Banks No escape for taxpayers; Beating vulture debt collectors; MERS cannot 4close; Sacrificial Lambs “Not much loyalty among the money-junkies.” wrh.com; Seize the day, seize the mtgs.; IMF and US Solution: Shut the private-for-profit central banks down, return to public central banks; BofA Heirlooms disappear; Bank stole home It’s a mess.
*
Adolph Hitler “Adolf Hitler never would have arrested elderly couples for having a vegetable garden in their yard but America is doing that.”; Hiroshima Even in WW2, lying to the public was an accepted way of life. Now Fukushima; FBook’s facial recognition More questions than answers; South Africa “We may be seeing the beginning of the “Zimbabwefication” of South Africa, which will cause massive capital flight, and not cure the basic problems regarding growing inequality, and the massive exploitation of African workers.” wrh.com and and Africa “Yet again pointing out that the US government’s alleged “war on terror” is only a war against people with the temerity to live over, or adjacent to, areas with resources the US government wants to expropriate for itself.” wrh.com; US – Russia talks “Translation from diplospeak into to English: Russia is not budging one centimeter on Syria.” wrh.com; Iran Not afraid of the bid bad wolf, and SArabia and Iran “One that neither the US nor its master Israel will be happy about.” wrh.com; 80% of Public Schools Isn’t soda considered junk food? Monsanto Paying to avoid labeling.

#142 Daisy Mae on 08.17.12 at 8:18 pm

#56wes coast on 08.17.12 at 1:20 am
“My only fear now is that F and the peckerettes don’t have the intestinal fortitude to maintain common sense policy in the face crumbling prices. How quickly could they turn tail and bring back a 30 year amort? Or loosen CMHC rules again?”

********************

The feds have screwed things up royally. They can’t backtrack…

We all suffer as a consequence of their stupid, irresponsible decisions.

#143 Daisy Mae on 08.17.12 at 8:23 pm

#57 Tedfiftyfour: “Its not true. Garth is blowing spoke up yr arse on this one. if its not MLS listed its not counted by CREA or TREB…”

********************

Well, it is true. And Garth won’t dignify this with a reply. No one can trust CREA…so we don’t.

#144 Daisy Mae on 08.17.12 at 8:30 pm

#68 Buy? Curious? “why can’t they be held accountable for this constant manipulation and propaganda?”

******************88

They’re not breaking any laws. It’s simply ‘Buyer Beware’. Ever heard of snake oil salesmen of the past? Anything goes…

#145 jess on 08.17.12 at 8:48 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=251qoGOqpdk
THE LIGHT BULB CONSIPRACY
planned obsolescence

#146 TurnerNation on 08.17.12 at 9:03 pm

Garth I see you’re now at RJ. I’ve visited their office floors (53 & 54) in the past.
Try the Clipper Cafe for large, cheap luches. Fourth floor, in the next door bank building.

#147 Macrath on 08.17.12 at 9:05 pm

#141 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

Isn`t it odd that we never here anything about the gigantic hole in the ozone layer in the news anymore ?

Did it magically heal and I missed the good news ?

#148 cynically on 08.18.12 at 3:56 am

truth hammer at #117 has got it wrong should anyone in the north country care (and they should). Sure Romney leads in an individual state count but that is usually expected because most of those votes come from the smaller states in the farm midwest, mountain west and the redneck south. It is the swing states with their electoral college count that most often decides a close election and by the latest count PRESIDENT Obama is ahead in 4 of the 6 largest ones but it is close. Romney’s main advantage is among non-college men 50 years and older and the rednecks of the south which, if he were American and voting, truth hammer would be either aging himself or wearing his collar very low. Obama, on the other hand, has the younger women vote and the larger, more sophisticated states such as Cal and NY – also our southern neighbors, Washington and Oregon. Money talks but American money elects as well, as companies are people according to the Republican Supreme Court so their billionaires are buying the election without having to disclose who they are. That’s Republican democracy!

#149 truth hammer on 08.18.12 at 12:57 pm

#148 C….start watching US television and not the CBC spin……..what matters is whats happening in the US not what the CBC supporters want to happen. The actual numbers have Romney and Ryan surging ahead….but you are right…it doesn’t matter which demographic group is voting it only matters how the college casts it’s vote in the various states…..all the talk of women voters and men under a certain age mean zip.

Who cares who is paying for the ads……isn’t it the same in Canada where the government controls the media? One way or the other the message that spins usually wins.

Funny that Soros has been in the news recently….after bashing gold down it has been reported that he has had to disclose that in fact he has been bashing gold to get the price down because he and his hedge funds have been buying with both hands while the price was weak while at the same time saying that gold was dead…..

#150 cynically on 08.18.12 at 5:49 pm

To #149 truth hammer – I never watch CBC and don’t even know its channel # but I do watch MSNBC every week day. How does that grab you? As for Soros, I’ll take him any day as a human being before I’ll take the Koch brothers and their greedy billionaire pals who will have bought the election should the Republicans win with Romney and Ryan at the top. God bless America in that case because they’ll be back to the Bush disaster of “trickle down” economics which doesn’t work but makes the wealthiest even wealthier at the expense of just about every one else. That is the main reason that I prefer Soros over all the other greedy Republican bastards because he sees the problems that their election will bring on even though it would make him even richer. The deficit will rise to astronomical heights as it was with Bush unless there are cutbacks in the economy and it will be just about everyone else who suffers these same cutbacks including the middle class idiots who don’t understand the catastrophe awaiting them – goodbye parts of medicare and social security and just about everything for the very poor. What I don’t like in our government is the extreme fat in both Federal and Provincial governments, the waste of resources that the leaders control and incompetency in their decision-making. Finally, the over-governance in their numbers and lack of democracy in the selection of one particular body of the government. Maybe we can agree about what is wrong politically in this country. I hope so. No hard feelings.

#151 aggie on 08.18.12 at 5:51 pm

With all the youtube requests, i wonder what it would cost to have the production co my son works for (oh boy) send over a small crew to video-record Monday night? I should’ve thought of asking him about this… and darn, he’s not my ‘one invited guest’…