It’s different here

Marco’s a real estate investor (his term) and realtor who thinks I suck. But in a good way. “I respect and admire your thoughts and arguments immensely,” he says. However, he disagrees with my call on housing. Especially in Toronto. And he thinks I need help. “I am not sure if you are a gentleman, but sometimes your rude and aggressive tone comes across as a smokescreen that is masking some kind of vulnerability or insecurity.”

That’s me. Emotionally fragile. Socially tentative. Riddled with doubts about my place in nature. Bereft of core values, lacking a moral compass, sexually confused. Pathetic. My inadequacies throb with every tasteless photo, and what creds remain ebb away with each dig I take at the noble profession of flogging houses. Oh, the shame.

Actually, Marco, better to be a sensitive and vulnerable little blogger than a myopic wingnut realtor. I mean, dude, look at your arguments:

“I would say we are in the midst of hyper inflation and not deflation as you say.  I also read alot of Don Stott ( www.coloradogold.com) and he claims basically that all this money printing will cause prices of tangible assets to keep rising. Therefore real estate should be the final home of all these worthless dollars that keep on being printed (along with other tangible things like gold, silver, art etc).”

Don Stott? The guy who also writes for the site “Whiskey and Gunpowder”, who’s been selling gold since 1977 and told his readers bullion would increase 69%, before it plunged 15%? Yeah, sure. Asset deflation is with us, like it or not. Commodities are falling with economic growth and nothing has been more deflationary in most countries than residential real estate. Money is getting more valuable, not less.

What else you got? Make it better.

“Secondly Toronto is the home of over 100,000 immigrants per year, if not more.  Toronto is not as glamourous as New York or Paris, not as beautiful as Vancouver, but as I call it, the most practical city in the world (except for the lack of subways).  In other words finding a job is rather easy, free health care as we have is a blessing that people all around the world envy, and our schools are relatively safe and functional.  These immigrants dream of home ownership, and if they cannot afford one, they must rent.  This influx of people will surely keep a floor on the market.”

Actually Toronto takes 50,000 immigrants a year, not a hundred. But let’s not quibble. Of these 12,000 families, less than a fifth are able to buy a home when they arrive – hardly an impact in a city where about 100,000 houses will change hands this year, while 43,000 new condos are in the pipeline. Besides, if immigration saves cities, what happened to Los Angeles where 43% of the population is non-native? Strike two.

“Lastly Garth, the price of money is cheap and the stock market is also a rigged game where the likes of Goldman Sachs and the other big boys can smash and manipulate anything they want. People don’t want to put their money there anymore, nor should they.  When that market crashes, within a couple of days a person can lose almost everything they saved. At least with a home you can live in it and rent it out. Remember Garth, the government and the bankers only care about the super rich.”

The conspiracy drivel is right out of the guns, god & gold playbook. And you think I’m insecure? As for comparing houses and stocks, this is a favourite argument of those manipulators who want people to believe these are the only two investment choices – one riskless, the other reckless. Of course, when real estate tanks, the people who own it find they’ve got a highly leveraged illiquid asset on their hands (ask an American) with the potential to erase all net worth. Those who own falling financial assets can sell in five minutes, instantly tanking risk.

More importantly, smart people get diversified. They own real estate in the right proportion, plus financial stuff. Like me. And I don’t have a single stock.

Finally, Marco, no place is different. Hell, they even used to think that in Vancouver.

And what’s happened? A year after euphoria, the wheels are coming off. Worst sales in 12 years. Only 86 deals a day in the final hours of July. Prices tumbling below assessed values. Fewer offers than during the GFC of 2008. Sales volumes down 40% in West Van, Burnaby and the Westside. Richmond a dead zone. Inventory sitting at 10 months, when in May it was barely over six.

Vancouver will be a template for every major urban market. And what’s coming in the last five months of 2012 could be epic.

Live in Vancouver

So I will be in Vancouver on Monday, August 20th, to talk about all of this, including my various emotional shortcomings. Where real estate in Van and the Lower Mainland is headed, plus what lies ahead for investors in housing, financial assets, gold and whiskey. The event is free, but you have to reserve a seat or two. Nobody will sell you anything, and we’ll leave lots of time for Q&A.

The hotel location will be confirmed tomorrow (it’s downtown), and the thing starts at 7 pm. Click the link below to register. See ya then.

Register now for the Vancouver Event on August 20th

165 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 08.05.12 at 9:41 pm

1. Whistler BC: still reeling from the Winter ‘Owelimpics’.

They had a decade of yearly property tax increases. The line is held, this year. I wonder how many Boomers are counting on locked up Whistler equity to save the day?

http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/whistler/2010-legacies-cost-75m-to-run/Content?oid=2310929

“Two out of three Olympic legacy venues in Whistler are on life support, according to the first annual report from Whistler Sport Legacies.

The report reveals the Whistler Sliding Centre recouped $578,000 of its $2.7 million operating costs, while Whistler Olympic Park took in just over $1 million with operating costs of $2.1 million.

Only the Whistler Athletes’ Centre is in the black, bringing in $723,000 and costing $677,000

Overseeing the venue operations is Whistler Sport Legacies (WSL). The report shows that administrative costs of running WSL are $1.9 million for its first full fiscal year.

Together, it costs more than $7.5 million to keep Whistler’s Olympic legacies alive.

For the first time ever taxpayers are getting a glimpse of the inner financial workings of WSL through the annual general report released Tuesday. It details the financials of the compressed 2010 year, as well as the first full fiscal year from Sept. 30, 2010 to Sept. 30, 2011.”

2. Did someone mention KIA?? Saw a billboard: 1 in 10 live in poverty, it said. Seems a bit high.
Linked to this site:

http://www.drivechangewithkia.ca/

I heard Harleys can run on concentrated crushed-Kia juice if you retard the timing a little bit. And widen the spark plug gap.

#2 Not 1st on 08.05.12 at 9:56 pm

Garth, is this event going to be recorded or podcast for us losers who don’t live in Vancouver?

Nope. Move. — Garth

#3 Fubar on 08.05.12 at 10:00 pm

Hi Garyh,

Will you be doing a show in Calgary as I would liketo attend. Also, what’s your predicted correction in Calgary over the next few years? Some say only a slight one since its been correcting here since 2008 but I’d like to hear your take.

Thanks,
A loyal fan and follower

#4 Tim on 08.05.12 at 10:01 pm

Apparently there are over one million millionaires in China. Whether two thirds of them got their money illegally is not the point. What if ten percent of them want to move to Canada? Were ^$%#ed, as our government is doing nothing to protect Canadians and whoring us out to the highest bidders

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.05.12 at 10:03 pm

The immigration argument falls apart when you look at where most of the condos are being built. Does a new immigrant family want to buy a CityPlace condo in downtown Toronto? How about a $750k McMansion in Vaughn?

#6 Tim on 08.05.12 at 10:04 pm

I don’t have numbers, but I’ve never seen so many vacant retail spaces in the 20 years I have lived here. Many businesses are folding or moving, due to greedy landlords and outrageous leasing costs. Despite this, you still can’t buy a townhouse on the west side for under half a million…

#7 Tom from Mississauga on 08.05.12 at 10:09 pm

Not one individual stock? Tough sell for me. But individual REIT’s, bonds and preferreds are ok?

The Pathetic Tour? Garth, time to fire the marketing department.

#8 Chaddywack on 08.05.12 at 10:14 pm

86 sales in Vancouver the last few days of July.

That’s ominous for the return of Asian investors Garth. Not only is the 8 lucky, but expo….get this ’86 was when Asians started buying up all the property in Vancouver and it’s never been the same since!!!!

I can totally see the 747s packed full of Mainlanders showing up in Sep-Oct ;)

#9 tundrapete on 08.05.12 at 10:14 pm

Way to go turner nation you didn’t say fiiiiiiiirst!

#10 Can it be? on 08.05.12 at 10:24 pm

I was in Vancouver today… Cranes cranes and more cranes…. But at least the airport is pretty. Marco a realtor in the GTA? Ha… Probably works for Remax. When times get tough for the agents and they are writing to insult Garth… You know the tide is turning. My guess… Mr. Marco is having a tough time selling his million dollar home and is a little angry. All the agents have their “investment” properties listed for sale. For some, it’s the only listings they have. Gotta make ends meet month to month.

#11 Ryan Tynd on 08.05.12 at 10:24 pm

again with the Gold – your so wrong Garth to continue to lump it with Real Estate.

Real Estate has escalated because of cheap consumer credit, people overextending what they should rightfully own, because it looks good to tell your friends you have a $1 million dollar home, when in reality you shouldn’t even have a $200,000 one.

and governments around the world continue to print, print print – more dollars in the system – that should not be there. so of course you have too much of anything, it becomes less valuable – including Dollars worth little more than the paper they are printed on.

So Commodities – Gold, Silver, Farmland, Oil etc. PHYSICAL things are where to be – not Dollars, they soon will be worthless, just wait until after the elections that are about to occur in about 5 major countries, and then the real realities will be seen –

the US dollar is on its way to collapse.

I did not lump it. Mr. Realtor did that. And the US dollar is the safest of havens. — Garth

#12 PoorgEoisie on 08.05.12 at 10:25 pm

All that money printing in the states did little to help real estate or gold. One of the old adages they taught me in Econ school was: in times of high employment, we will see high inflation and low inflation in times of low employment. That being said, I went to
Carleton and as I have demonstrated on this blog in the past my math skills are pretty shitty.

#13 Can it be? on 08.05.12 at 10:28 pm

One more note for real estate agents. They all hate the stock markets. It’s like training for people in MLM insurance sales.. Hate the man, the job, the banks. Brain washing… Wonder what the next real estate conventions will look like? When the realtors can’t keep up the cost of their licenses and brokerage fees. Interesting times ahead

#14 Canadian Watchdog on 08.05.12 at 10:29 pm

Tim Hortons announces price increases http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1236217–tim-hortons-announces-price-increases

No inflation huh Garth?

Asset deflation. Pay attention. — Garth

#15 Signpost in the bushes on 08.05.12 at 10:32 pm

“More importantly, smart people get diversified.” Garth

Some other people (also smart investors) just concentrate. Not that there’s anything wrong with diversification. All investing styles have their subscribers. Know thyself. Educate thyself. Trust thyself.

#16 Min in Mission on 08.05.12 at 10:33 pm

Nope. Move. — Garth

After all, lots of great places for sale right now!!!

#17 Smartalox on 08.05.12 at 10:37 pm

Tickets booked for the 20th!

#18 DBC on 08.05.12 at 10:40 pm

I don’t think Marco’s arguments hold any water. How does the job picture look in Toronto if the housing market slows, let alone collapses?? Too many jobs related to the housing market; trades in construction, manufacturing home goods, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, insurers…. Toronto isn’t going to look like as good of a place to move without all the housing related jobs, and immigration trends will follow suit. So who then is the incremental buyer??? It’s not existing Canadians already have a record 70% home ownership rate. Something’s got to give when supply and demand don’t match, and that’s going to mean falling prices.

#19 Sp on 08.05.12 at 10:40 pm

#4. “Whether two thirds of them got their money illegally is not the point.”

Supposedly smart-ass comment like this demonstrates the complete lack of understanding the concept of money. Just how do they “illegally” get their hands on all the Canadian dollars? Are you suggesting that the Canadian government illegally gave them the money? Try to understand modern banking instead making illogical hyperboles.

#20 Maxamillion on 08.05.12 at 10:45 pm

Is this the trend to post your estate home on craigslist.

http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/yrk/reb/3129421379.html

#21 Devore on 08.05.12 at 10:46 pm

Garth, who is your sponsor this time?

Bob Rennie, Cam Good & Cameron Muir. — Garth

#22 GLK on 08.05.12 at 10:50 pm

Come on Garth! 5 minutes to sell financial assets? I would say it taxes a few seconds. Anyway my broker gives me a 10 second guarantee for market .

You have to go to the bathroom first. — Garth

#23 bruce on 08.05.12 at 10:53 pm

Just as what happened in LA – buyers in Vancouver are waiting for the sellers to cut their prices – some will wait for the bottom of the market cycle to arrive before they buy

#24 Cristian on 08.05.12 at 10:55 pm

“free health care as we have is a blessing that people all around the world envy”…

Now THAT is what really makes this guy a perfect idiot. Obviously he hasn’t taken his nose out of his ass, much less out of Canada, otherwise he would have known that “free” doesn’t equal “quality”, but usually quite the opposite. And I know since I am a physician in Canada and I’ve also worked in other countries, under other healthcare systems, from fully state-sponsored to mixed to fully private. Few were worse than what’s in Canada.
The poor idiot should stop peddling houses for a while and maybe travel a bit. It would be his gain and ours.

#25 Revolving Door Real Estate on 08.05.12 at 10:59 pm

#18 DBC

incestuous, ain’t it?

#26 TurnerNation on 08.05.12 at 11:08 pm

Here’s our forum host kicking it to the cowboys this month:

(Article is not yet linked online).

http://albertaventure.com/2012/08/

Page 30.

“The wages of sin is debt”

#27 new canadian on 08.05.12 at 11:33 pm

Marco, man can be “rude and aggressive” sometimes, that’s part of being a man, especially things around are not right. I understand that you are not part of men family. No surprise, having grown in a woman controlled and moderated culture here in Canada, you need to get some education.

Take a look at mammals at Discovery, some men are doing great things there. We have been like those mammals for millions for years, now this fake modern like is only around couple of hundred years, maybe a thousand. So you can bet which one is more likely the right thing.

Not being a man, now you have wider options like shopping for hours, being emotional etc.

#28 Tripp on 08.05.12 at 11:33 pm

@ #24 Cristian

I too worked and lived in other three countries, not in healthcare though. However I had experienced it and unfortunately I have to agree with you.

Emergency room waiting times are measured in minutes, not hours. All people were covered and had a family physician. Try to get a pediatrician in Canada, you can wait for years! I had an MRI exam(120 euros) and the clinic apologized for having a spot only in two weeks. The conditions and equipment inside were hard to be found in Canada.

I am afraid we are becoming a country of ill informed people, drowning in our self-importance and with opinions based on legends and fairy tales. Housing nonetheless.

#29 TRT on 08.05.12 at 11:37 pm

Good Grief… only 50,000 immigrants per year total to the GTA??

…and I’ve got a bridge to sell…

You guys win. Lets make it 50,000 immgrants per year to all of Canada…wait, per decade. Yeah, thats better.

Keep wondering why RE won’t crater in the fall.

#30 Georgi on 08.05.12 at 11:39 pm

Garth, this will be a nice reading for your followers:
http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/vancouver-housing-full-correction-mode-implications-canadian-banks

#31 bald bob on 08.05.12 at 11:43 pm

#3 Fubar.
LOL. Prediction? lol. Copy and paste? lol. Stay on the trail and crap in the woods. It’s where u belong.

#32 joe the realtor on 08.05.12 at 11:53 pm

Garth you just don’t understand that without RE the GTA is doomed. Do you not understand people are losing their jobs left and right ever since the downturn took hold? If the market continues like this unemployment will explode higher and peoples net worth will crumble with housing prices. That is a bad thing you stupid basement blog dogs don’t understand.

#33 Alarmed on 08.06.12 at 12:03 am

Garth,
Here’s a good one for you. Would you sign up your 90-something grandmother, who lives in a $450k SFH (2011 appraisal) in Scarborough, for a reverse mortgage? That’s what my genius relatives want to do. Let me tell you it isn’t to use the proceeds to invest in etfs or preferreds. No, the want to use the cash to pay for health care costs. I vote that the sell the SFH and sign grandma up for a senior citizen home. What do you think?

#34 new canadian on 08.06.12 at 12:06 am

#28 Tripp

This is an intentional gov’t lie, not ill-informing or some other nice word. Like Americans are being “the greatest nation” in the world, freedom unless you aren’t kidnapped, tortured or killed officially by US gov’t.

Health system is “good” in Canada only if you compare to US and maybe some third world countries who are also developing rapidly.

#35 FTP - First Time Poster on 08.06.12 at 12:08 am

Garth,

While in Van, stop at the Elbow Room Cafe for brekkie. The food is great & the atmosphere fits well with your take on life.

http://www.theelbowroomcafe.com/zgrid/themes/12/intro/index.jsp

#36 Mr Buyer on 08.06.12 at 12:12 am

Hey Garth when are you coming to Japan? Anyways watch out for very very angry people looking for ascape goat. You might need security.

#37 Edmonton Dave on 08.06.12 at 12:14 am

“Money is getting more valuable, not less.”. Garth, those are your words, but sadly, that isn’t true. If it were, then interest rates would rise and savers like me would rejoice and dance in the streets. I’m really choked at the U.S. Fed for ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). When does the stupidity end and rates rise ???

#38 Elmer on 08.06.12 at 12:20 am

Garth, I’m interested in coming to one of your talks and was wondering what the dress code is. Thanks.

Clothing optional. If you’re hot. — Garth

#39 WPOE on 08.06.12 at 12:22 am

Marco, your passive aggresive tone is classic canadian.
I quote
“your rude and aggressive tone comes across as a smokescreen that is masking some kind of vulnerability or insecurity.”

Another bronze medal winner.

#40 ozy - moderation still to come on 08.06.12 at 12:31 am

Moderation still to come in GTA, this summer the market was way more resilient (hot) than expected.
the buyers are “crazy” and need take a vacation, guys, take the pregnant wifes to Europe, or south america, not to dusty, hot open houses. Looks that almost 300000 immigrantos in kanata yearly, mostly all in need a govt course: financial litteracy in kanata & tricks or surviving in capitalistic dishonesty, etc, as too many of the naives fall prey to the RE selling&profiting industry (and other industries), banks, builders, sellers, comissioned salesguys, etc. maybe flathedy and harpes will hear and waste few more ten-billions from invisible air-fleet to help-immigrants named courses. Until then, business as USUAL (go in vacation people! stop reading any internet crap)

#41 daystar on 08.06.12 at 12:33 am

#4 Tim on 08.05.12 at 10:01 pm

“Apparently there are over one million millionaires in China. Whether two thirds of them got their money illegally is not the point.” – Tim

Yeah, a Chinese property bubble coupled with their nation being the worlds largest manufacturing powerhouse would never, ever have anything to do with Chinese wealth. Corruption can be the only natural conclusion in your world. So what is your point then and why do you mention this? Do you actually believe what you just said?

“What if ten percent of them want to move to Canada?” – Time

I have to laugh at this. What if? 10% of China’s affluent are leaving… per year according to Tim’s toned logic and naturally 100% of these rich Chinese are coming to Canada and only Canada ’cause Canada is superior, the “best place on earth” and so on and so forth, blah, blah, blah, etc. ad nauseam.

“Were ^$%#ed, as our government is doing nothing to protect Canadians and whoring us out to the highest bidders” – Tim

(and yet, the false belief that the majority of China’s affluent is corrupt has no point)

Is that why the feds axed this?

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/business/investors/index.asp

Quebec did the same so I suggest you update your intel. No more HAM to complain about, you’ll have to settle for “the majority of rich Chinese are corrupt” in your illogical world of unfounded assumption and superiority. Just a quick question, maybe I’ve got you confused with the wrong group. Do y’all still wear hoods Tim?

#42 ozy - moderation still to come on 08.06.12 at 12:35 am

Moderation still to come in GTA, this summer the market was way more resilient (hot) than expected.
the buyers are “crazy” and need take a vacation, guys, take your pregnant wifes to Europe, or south america, not to dusty, ugly open houses. Looks that almost 300000 immigrants in kanata yearly, mostly all in need a govt course: financial litteracy in kanata & tricks or surviving in capitalistic often dishonest society, etc, as too many of the naives fall prey to the RE selling&profiting industry (and other industries too), like banks, builders, sellers, comissioned sales boys/girls, etc. maybe mrs flathedy/harpes will hear the need and gladly waste few more ten-billions from invisible air-fleet to help the immigrants get named courses. Until then, business as USUAL (go in vacation people! stop reading internet crap)

#43 MontrealSFH on 08.06.12 at 12:38 am

Garth, simple question: are you coming to Montreal? yes or no?

#44 InvestX on 08.06.12 at 12:46 am

“And I don’t have a single stock.”

No bank preferreds?

They are not equity, but fixed income. — Garth

#45 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.06.12 at 12:55 am


“Especially in Toronto.” — BPOE covers western Canada, Marco covers central and two more are needed, one for the east and one in Baffin Island with the north.

“Riddled with doubts about my place in nature. Bereft of core values, lacking a moral compass, sexually confused. Pathetic. And he thinks I need help.” — If the prior was a self-description, I recommend calling Dr. Phil (“Oh, the shame.”)

“More importantly, smart people get diversified. And what’s coming in the last five months of 2012 could be epic.” — Indeed, esp. if markets (stock and RE) sink in tandem. On the portfolio and 40-60 side, there will be a plethora of investments to buy and profit from, but RE won’t be one of them.

“The conspiracy drivel is right out of the guns, god & gold playbook.” — Umm, not quite — consp. truth vs. m$m.
*
‘Owzaboud getting “Bob Rennie, Cam Good & Cameron Muir. — Garth” to sponsor Garth’s Bunker in Oz?
*
California Cutting public services almost entirely to fund higher-ups pensions? Not sure that’s the right way to go; Britain’s cheapest home Not as low as Detroit 4closures, but cheap enough; Price Collusion? Seems so; Major Banks help customers hide trillions offshore; New Central Bank Tool Google searches; Son of Dot Com Bubble About to burst? Jobless What do they do when unemployment cheques run out? JPM off the hook; Debts / Deficits This would go with the link in post #191 from the previous thread; Dark Reality behind India’s growth; Italy Cash for gold big business; Zombified Detroit; Japan’s Sharp Decline and Steve and Joe Two clips.
*
Wisconsin shootings Same old stuff used in Colorado. There will probably be lots more of this, and James Holmes Aurora patsy? Lucifer’s back, but he’s not one of the Fab Four, and Vatican scandals Not doing gOsd’ work; “Net Glasses from Google; Landlord Charged Shows what living in a police state is like; Rhubarb Crumble Everything’s falling to pieces around us; Food As Medicine Never thought of it this way; Stuxnet and Flame New stuff; Volcanic eruption The London famine of the 1300s is not seemingly responsible, a massive volcanic blast was; Tropical Antarctica? Exceptional Criminality Click on the pic to enlarge it; Lima, Peru The west’s next conquest / failure?

#46 Michelle on 08.06.12 at 1:16 am

@#27- New Canadian

“…having grown in a woman controlled and moderated culture here in Canada…”

Sigh…I wish! I’ve spent years around male-dominated fields of Science, Engineering and Medicine. I’m not quite sure I get your point “New Canadian”. Hopefully it’s satirical, otherwise you may have picked the wrong country to immigrate to!

#47 truth hammer on 08.06.12 at 1:17 am

I see Marco’s argument as much like the Liberal Party’s at it’s peak……”If you disagree with our point of view you’re crazy”. Such is the mentality of dictators and others who would control the world for their own self interest.
Marco…like the Liberals couldn’t agree with anyone who had a differance of opinion….they would start with name calling….just like Marco has done to you. If history is to repeat itself the real estate agents will start appointing judges and passing gag laws to shut you up. They will start calling you ‘neo-con’….and a ‘gun nut’….pretty soon you’ll hate homosexuals and eat children……for breakfast.

Marco is doing what he has been taught to do……to be intolerant….of opposing opinions……..Kanada ist Liberal uber alles !!!!

I disagree with realtards like Marco because I see a much different story than what the real estate boards and advertisers are spewing…one good example was this one…

Today I was in a public park where lots of HAM was laid out like a cornucopia of Asian cuisine on a chequered blanket. As always they had backed into their parking spots………………….and were doinf something that I had never seen before.

On the back of each minivan ( which is the de rigeur HAM vehicle du jour) I spotted condo’s advertised FSBO with those little cut strips for tearing off with contact numbers dilligently inscribed on each finger.

On further inspection I noticed that they were photograph & feature sheets that they had obviously got from realtards at some time on an earlier listing of the property to be given away at open houses to propective purchasers.

The original asking prices had all been reduced ( I noted that these were vacant condo’s between the 299,000 and $499,000 range)….the price reductions were all in the order of $30,000 to $50,000 and all in various communities that have atracted HAM over the past few years.

Now I am going to hazard a guess at what is going around in the HAM community….a movement to ‘FIRE YOUR REALTOR’ because the price reductions on top of the commissions are going to put all of these HAM operators in a loss position if they continue to list.

If this observance of mine is wider spread then it means that the MLS stats are complete BUNKO and that the number of units for sale is FAR HIGHER than is being let on. Reason being that the number of listings is being managed because the real estate board only represents the sales organizations and not the public at large…….meaning that they are not publishing anywhere close to the actual number of units for sale or the fact that real prices are coming down faster than they want to admit.

#48 Ed on 08.06.12 at 1:19 am

Besides Monday the 20th, any other speaking engagements in the Lower Mainland?

#49 Tony on 08.06.12 at 1:27 am

Diversification? What happened to all the people who were diversified in 1929? They all got wiped just like the people today will all get wiped out. The only true way to diversify is to go short on stocks and buy bear funds.

#50 a prairie dawg on 08.06.12 at 1:36 am

#13 Can it be? on 08.05.12 at 10:28 pm

Wonder what the next real estate conventions will look like? When the realtors can’t keep up the cost of their licenses and brokerage fees. Interesting times ahead

– — –

They should start practicing saying, “Do you want fries with that?”

Don’t wait for the rush. ;)

#51 Soylent Green is People on 08.06.12 at 1:48 am

I always knew it, Garth is a sensitive and vulnerable little blogger, ahhhhhhh hOw adorable is that!!!!
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#52 Soylent Green is People on 08.06.12 at 1:56 am

Harper writes a blank cheque and tells the provinces that health care is their problem, not ours, collectively, as a nation. He signaled that his government has no interest in building a comprehensive national health policy for Canada that addresses our national health and innovation goals. He knows that only a prime minister can lead that charge. He has chosen not to.
At least Harper is consistent. Nation building is not on his agenda. And slowly, but surely, we are heading down the gradual incrementalist’s path to becoming a confederation of shopping centers.
That is not the Canada I want. But we were warned.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/mobileweb/daniel-d-veniez/health-care-funding-canada_b_1163707.html
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#53 Buy? Curious? on 08.06.12 at 3:06 am

Yo, Marco! Why don’t rewind and watch Rocky again on your mama’s VHS while sitting on her sofa incased in plastic wrap? When your done, go water your driveway.

Nothing worse than some armchair economist/realtor/unemployable douche bag, giving financial advice. “Whadda think, should I short Facebook? Whaddabout Google, shoulda get in now?” Giddouttahere, forgetaboutit! And take your shoeshine box wid ya!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JBvfZTx-vs

#54 Click Here, its different. on 08.06.12 at 3:33 am

What’s the difference between an realtor and a large pizza ? A large pizza can still feed a family of four.

#55 ANONYMOUS on 08.06.12 at 3:48 am

I was driving in my Lamborghini through Conestogo right outside Waterloo, where all the hot-shot RIM executives live and who have made me a billionaire as a real estate mogul, just now with a hot 19 y/o Laurier cheerleader. I saw 27 houses for sale; all with “SOLD” stickers within the last 24 hours with varying percentages ranging from 10% to 290% above asking. Every single parking lot I drove by had a minimum of 4 cars– a permutation of Ferrari, Lamborghni, Mercedes, BMW, Aston Martin or McLaren. A few had no cars but mere water fountains made of gold.

You see, it really IS different here. I know. I see it with my own eyes daily. You Pathetic degenerates are merely jealous. Waterloo is #1 and remember that.

#56 ANONYMOUS on 08.06.12 at 3:58 am

Hey Guys, just letting you know, a successful and intelligent young Laurier MBA graduate just sold his house he bought for $695,000 in Conestogo (population: 2,200) with mommy & daddy’s life savings of $320,000 for $375,000 to a recent RIM hire earning $48,000/year. What a brilliant man; he took a risk nobody else could fathom, yes, indeed, he paid a price, but he lost nothing– his parents surely can give him another $320,000 like candy.

Ladies and Gentleman, just because you do not own real estate in Conestogo does NOT mean you can be angry at RIM- it is a highly successful company that has made MILLIONAIRES out of virtually everyone who has been privileged enough to be hired. Hiring standards are HIGH at RIM, and just because you don’t get hired doesn’t mean that you’re not capable. You’re just not RIM material. For example, I know a friend of a friend, a Harvard Computer Engineering and MIT Doctoral Computer Engineering graduate, with experience at both Apple and Google, was not hired because RIM deemed him not incapable of joining the elite team at RIM. This individual even helped design the iPhone. RIM rightfully points out that the BlackBerry is in a league of its own.

Anyways, folks, don’t be jealous. RIM is a company that comes around once in a generation; most of us neither have the intelligence or the intuitiveness to join the elite ranks RIM. Don’t be angry; realize that there are more intelligent, more driven, more outstanding individuals than ourselves, regardless of whether we have PhDs from Harvard, MIT or Stanford, regardless of whether we have designed the competitors to RIM which have outperformed their products. We must remain humble and realize that RIM is in a league of its own.

RIM. The Elite Phone.

#57 Yulyyz on 08.06.12 at 4:01 am

Have the MPAC property assessments for Toronto (416) come out yet? I think they were due this summer or fall for the next 4 years. I’m curious to hear about some examples of how much higher the values have gone. thanks!

#58 Click Here, its different. on 08.06.12 at 4:03 am

Canadian RE market stinks so bad…that my realtor recommended only 2 positions, List and Fetal.

#59 daystar on 08.06.12 at 4:10 am

#29 TRT on 08.05.12 at 11:37 pm

Good Grief… only 50,000 immigrants per year total to the GTA??

…and I’ve got a bridge to sell… – TRT

If you read Garth’s post, nowhere is the GTA mentioned.

The city of Toronto has 2.6 million residents while the GTA has 6 million, a major distinction out of a nation of 33,476,688 people (2011 census).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto

Canada took in 280,000 permanent/temp residents in 2010 to put this in perspective:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2010/permanent/10.asp

Lets just go to a link that keeps us from guessing as some of us prefer fact based analysis @ Greater fool:

http://www.toronto.ca/toronto_facts/diversity.htm

2006 stats: City of Toronto averaged 55,000 immigrants annually over an average national immigration of 267,000 people. In 2010, we took in 280,000. Of this 55,000, Toronto represented 52% of immigrants in the GTA so the GTA took in just over 100,000 immigrants when one does the math. What I keep wondering is, “why did you assume Garth is speaking of the GTA and not the city of Toronto?

“You guys win. Lets make it 50,000 immgrants per year to all of Canada…wait, per decade. Yeah, thats better.” – TRT

Is this dude mocking us now? He is! Mistake…

“Keep wondering why RE won’t crater in the fall.” – TRT

Peer viewed, I’m sure and thats what this is about now isn’t it. You’re a realtor, is that it? You must be, since you tried to sell us a bridge. TRT, you can make mock us, drum up fake scenario’s and BS as much as you like but it won’t save Canadian housing. Nationally credit is tighter, the T.O. condo market is running into oversupply and condos support the base of the market which has taken a tremendous runup in valuations. Media has bashed housing this year, the BoC has talked it down and the recent numbers are ugly dude. It doesn’t take much imagination to figure out what happens next.

#60 Click Here, its different. on 08.06.12 at 5:07 am

The pessimists sees the glass as half empty. The realtors sees the glass half full. Owners just adds whiskey.

#61 big T on 08.06.12 at 7:04 am

#5 bubble boy, the condos are being purchased by
immigrants to rent back to you and yours, with money
left over to purchase that McMansion, a cottage, may be
a small business or two, this is the new economy.. get
to know some new canadians, and learn..

#62 dd on 08.06.12 at 7:12 am

Serious of QE has started again. Here, there, and everywhere.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120802-714959.html

#63 Mr Buyer on 08.06.12 at 7:21 am

#30Georgi on 08.05.12 at 11:39 pm
Garth, this will be a nice reading for your followers:
http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/vancouver-housing-full-correction-mode-implications-canadian-banks
………………………………………………………..
I was reading through the comments section of the article in your link and stumbled upon the following…

“”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
“Hypothetically speaking though, if a mortgage somehow slipped through to the CMHC that wasn’t entirely as clean as it professed to be, is there any sort of putback clause that allows the CMHC to deny coverage and hand the loss back to the bank? Or am I the taxpayer still bound to cover it?”

Yes, if there was fraud in the application, and the bank failed to perform due diligence, the claim can be rejected.
“””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Is this on fact true. If CMHC guidelines were not folled can CMHC refuse to cover the bank’s losses?

#64 House Horny Housewife on 08.06.12 at 7:27 am

Garth,

This guy is right about ONE thing. Toronto is indeed a “practical” city to live in and if that is all that you want in life (convenience), then you’ve got it made here.

I grew up in Etobicoke, a suburb of Toronto, and I absolutely hated growing up here. Surrounded by “practical” stuff. Row upon row of ugly bungalows, not a stitch of elegance or ethics in city planning whatsoever.

You wanna plunk a “gentleman’s club” right across the street from an elementary school ? go right ahead ! (how many times did I catch men peeing on the side of that building on my way home from school ? … too many times to count .. fortunately, or unfortunately, I never got to see Chesty Morgan when she was featured there). Practical indeed !

Thanks to all of the traffic (people in Toronto take their cars everywhere .. how many cars exist in Toronto now ? a hundred ga-zillion ? that’s why they had to widen the 401 into 50 lanes), I could only ride my bicycle within a 1 km radius of my house because I had The Queensway on the north, Royal York Road on the west, the ravine off of Parklawn Rd on the east and the Gardiner Expressway on the south. A wonderful childhood circling around the same damned area … but Marco’s right. It was practical and “safe” and I suppose that’s really all that’s important in life: being able to get a quart of milk on the way home and then to lock yourself inside to watch HGTV and figure out how you’re going to renovate your kitchen and bathroom. Yippee ! What a wonderful life. Extremely fulfilling and highly “practical”.

And how much do I have to pay to buy a house in this cultural and spiritual suicide of a place ? Only a million bucks ? Hey, what a great deal !! Keep selling it Marco and I have no doubt that people will keep buying it.

Garth, you are outnumbered by people who would rather have the life I have just described than something a little more … err …. uhm …. fulfilling ?! If I were you, I would just give up and let the people have what they want.

HHHW

#65 Steven Rowlandson on 08.06.12 at 7:35 am

Your posting Garth shows that immigration is real estate market manipulation to keep real estate prices up through the creation of demand that would not be there to the same degree if there were only born in canada canadians participating in the market.
The supply of elite wage earners is limited and without immigrants sales would dry up leading to price reductions due to too many properties chasing too few qualified buyers.
To have a fair market the importation of home buyers must stop so that prices can drop due to seniors and boomers dumping there homes on the market and the fact that those that need to buy a home can not pay much because canadian employers don’t pay much.
Ten or fifteen dollars an hour is what they like to pay and that kind of money is 40 years out of date relative to the real estate market. With out immigration canadians and the real estate market would have to face reality and the consequences of their actions.
I know that sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.

#66 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.06.12 at 8:01 am

@ #61 big T on 08.06.12 at 7:04 am
#5 bubble boy, the condos are being purchased by
immigrants to rent back to you and yours, with money
left over to purchase that McMansion, a cottage, may be
a small business or two, this is the new economy.. get
to know some new canadians, and learn..
————-
I agree that there in an investor-class, who can buy properties left, right, and centre and still have money to spare.

The question is: what % of Toronto-bound immigration does that type of buyer represent?

And, if the uber-rich buyers can support the ridiculous market that is Toronto/GTA, why is Vancouver struggling right now? You could argue that (percentage-wise), Vancouver is beyond Toronto in terms of population impact and perceived RE impact.

One thing I find different about Toronto – there are thousands of people immigrating from almost every country on earth… so, when someone quotes “100,000 immigrants per year”, it is definitely not accurate to assume this represents 100,000 rich Chinese/Indian/Middle Eastern investors with suitcases full of money. One of the largest immigrant populations is from The Philippines (health care/child care jobs), and – while there is a rising middle class, the “millionaire investor from Manila” isn’t a reality (and definitely is not an anecdote told by GTA realtors).

#67 neo on 08.06.12 at 8:20 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-drought-may-increase-canadian-food-prices-by-as-much-as-4-per-cent-next-year/article4464699/

Definite price inflation coming. Asset deflation mixed with wage stagnation and we get stagflation. How fun.

#68 bigrider on 08.06.12 at 8:23 am

You will find a lot of people in Toronto named Marco, who believe as he does, that real estate is holier than God, along with others named Gino, Guido, Luigi, Antonio, Nunzareno, Pepino, Franco.

Women as well, Giovanna, Concetta, Maria, Giusepina Loreta.

Marco, along with many above, will be making homemade tomato sauce soon, in the gargages of all their real estate.

#69 bigrider on 08.06.12 at 8:38 am

So many people in Toronto of Italian heritage and such a disproportionate amount of them 1% ers. In fact, probably safe to say that more than 50% of them are 1% ers and many of those among the richest in the country.

Every single one of them as rich as they are because of a business related to RE, whether it be building it, selling it, selling material for the construction and finishing of it or speculating through the years on raw land etc etc.

I mean ,after all, it’s not like any of them invented the IPhone, started RIM or improved a medical technology or something.

If they couldn’t dig a hole or cement some bricks together……fagettaboutit

#70 DonDWest on 08.06.12 at 9:04 am

I’ll give Marco credit in the sense that he advertises Toronto well. Toronto, city of the lifeless and clueless (mostly immigrants).

If you want to be lifeless and clueless, if you want to be a part of a culture where everyone appropriately plays “go nowhere with you in the background,” hey this is the place for you! The cost? A million dollars. No pressure, everyone is a loser, it’s a coalition of losers. Who can resist the prospect of a life of drunken stupor, bliss, and bankrupcy with millions of co-patriots? After all, misery loves company!

Come to Toronto, where we can all be miserable together!

#71 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 08.06.12 at 9:08 am

#32 joe the realtor – “That is a bad thing you stupid basement blog dogs don’t understand.”

Wrong joe. That’s exactly what we do understand (even those of us who live in bright apartments with gorgeous views). Hence the concern and warnings.

#72 Editor on 08.06.12 at 9:23 am

Not so sure the GTA isn’t already feeling it but we’ll be able to separate the impact of the summer doldrums come the fall. In N3, houses are coming on at lower prices and some are dropping price, too. Most folks aren’t selling “over asking” any more, if they manage to sell. Houses usually destined for first-time buyers are really sitting because first-time buyers can’t get those loans anymore, or they’re holding back. Supply isn’t budging, so if it doesn’t go down in the fall, and people don’t pull their houses off the market, supply will only go up. Not seeing the factors that would raise demand: not the immigration, not the credit, not the enthusiasm, mostly, not the buyers. You can hype real estate till kingdom come, but nothing works without the buyers.

#73 maxx on 08.06.12 at 9:26 am

The jig’s up. Had a rather spirited “discussion” with a realtard yesterday:

Called it on a land value stat that just didn’t jive. It’s listing evaluated the square-foot price of a lot as being $10.00 more than others currently for sale on the same street AND the listing sits at the less desirable end.
Having taken the realtard course and done some number crunching, I gave him the price I was willing to pay. It got really hot under the collar and practically bellowed that the evaluation had been done by a highly reputable firm (so, more ranking members of the cartel to consider?).
I kept hammering away at it with the same argumentative élan, providing all the evidence available today and what the landscape is likely to look like in the very near future, and it finally relented and admitted that there is a correction happening. But my lord did it ever automatically engage in realtard cartel spin. Disgusting how the programming is like a tsunami of BS. Hit them back with the truth, I say. One by one, every single time.
Today, we’re off to see another one and it will be evaluated in precisely the same way. Get your own comparables, not the realtard’s, take a few minutes to do a bit of grade 2 math and see how wide your eyes open.

#74 Canadian Watchdog on 08.06.12 at 9:35 am

#67 neo

A 2-3% price increase on food would cost the average Canadian about $225-$250 per year. Just what homeowners on the brink need.

#75 maxx on 08.06.12 at 9:45 am

#28 Tripp on 08.05.12 at 11:33 pm

@ #24 Cristian

“”I too worked and lived in other three countries, not in healthcare though. However I had experienced it and unfortunately I have to agree with you”.

I was hospitalized in England and the brilliant treatment I received there was second to none.
Also, I ‘ve still got a UK filling which is still in perfect condition after 35 years. The dentist was replacing one I had had done in Canada and he said: “this was done in a very ham-handed way”.
There is life outside of Canada.

#76 Linda Pearson on 08.06.12 at 10:04 am

#64House Horny Housewife on 08.06.12 at 7:27 am

If your young years were actually bounded by a 1 km radius of your family home, then certainly your view of Etobicoke will be jaundiced, maybe especially by what were the boundary roads of that circle.

My memories of growing up in Etobicoke are entirely different. Full disclosure: since I am now 65 years old, these memories are old and I accept that things have changed a lot since then. For one thing, Burnhamthorpe Road doesn’t now end about a mile west of Highway 27 like it did back in the day.

My brothers and I were children of a Metro Toronto police officer, perhaps one of the most conservative and safety-conscious of that breed. Yet at the age of twelve I was allowed to walk our dog, alone and me a girl, in the middle (3:00am) of very hot summer nights when we couldn’t sleep. Our neighbourhood was safe and he knew it. And the “dog” wasn’t some huge scary breed – just a yappy dachshund that would have left me and lit out for home at the first sign of danger.

We spent countless days playing in the bush looking for bad guys and dangerous animals in what is now Markland Woods, about a mile and a half from home and we’d be gone for hours at a time. Only one rule – turn up for dinner and be on time doing it.

We sometimes packed our lunch and rode our bikes up to Malton Airport, RIGHT ON TO THE EDGE OF THE RUNWAYS (I think there were only 2 or 3 in those days) where we’d lie on the grass and watch the planes land. Sounds incredible now, doesn’t it? But true nevertheless. They’ve re-named the airport; nowadays it’s called Toronto International.

As long as you hurried, you could still take a short-cut to school by dodging cars on Highway 27, though I remember as if it were yesterday the names of school-mates who were killed on that highway trying to save a few minutes. In those days, we all walked to school despite weather or distance. And, with that sentence, I realize I now sound just like my grandparents used to!

I must stop since there’s at least one poster, whose moniker I don’t remember, who is offended by reminiscences like this. But I defend it by linking it to “location, location, location”.

#77 Spiltbongwater on 08.06.12 at 10:26 am

Don’t immigrants who move to Canada, have some sort of wealth? Comparing Toronto to La immigration, is LOL, as I don’t think the Mexicans “immigrating” to LA are running across the border with a bag full of pesos.

Nice stereotyping. Our immigrants are better than your immigrants. So Canadian. — Garth

#78 live within your means on 08.06.12 at 10:54 am

Watched your Youtube video Garth. Lovely place you bought. Years ago bro had a friend who bought a beautiful old place that looked over the waterfront. When family & friends visit NS, I always included Lunenburg as part of my tour. The old Academy used to hold craft fairs during the summer. IIRC, several homes have a widows walk. Lunenburg, Liverpool & Mahone Bay were known as ‘rum runner’ towns. An old friend bought a house just above from Mahone Bay which had one & a secret room – no doubt owned by a rum runner. :-)

#79 John on 08.06.12 at 10:58 am

Remember Garth, the government and the bankers only care about the super rich.”

The conspiracy drivel is right out of the guns, god & gold playbook. And you think I’m insecure?
———-
What’s up with the bait and switch? The realtor is dead wrong on his comparisons and argument, that’s clear.

You’re using the deluded realtor logic as a post to take a shot at the crony capitalism “argument”.

Crony capitalism is not an “argument”. Take the realtor and his argument out of it. Take ridiculous comparisons of the playing field. This is all very good.

But to call our current scenario of unbridled
system-busting crony capitalism “conspiracy” is way more than a “reach”. It’s a less logical argument than anything your realtor is saying.

Why is it important to admit our current systemic reality? Well, first of all, it’s not open to “debate” now. It might have been even as recently as 2 years ago. All that “cover” is gone now. For dozens of reasons, now explicit.

The Canadian real estate story is part and parcel of the crony capitalism system. Completely. Undeniably. If we want to talk solutions..reality…what’s going on and how to improve it, we need to deal with the crony world stage of “finance”.

You’re not dealing with it, and it’s not going to stop it’s emerging impact.

#80 TurnerNation on 08.06.12 at 11:05 am

Truth hammer, where’s the elected senate you were promised?? Fool me once….

Down in the USA the game is rigged, too: Let’s see now.
The incumbant vs. an elite 1%-er – corporate robberbarron – who dosn’t even pay taxes!!

Gee, I wonder who the poor, broke, huddled, 99% will vote for.
Rigged.

#81 Cory on 08.06.12 at 11:10 am

Toronto, Vancouver, Toronto, Vancouver……everyday…..who cares? there’s more to this country than these two cities. They always crash big.

Talk about where it matters such as Calgary where this is moving ahead full steam

http://www.therivercalgary.com/floorplans

Not one sign of construction slowdown for any of the new condos being built even though many many already finished buildings are not sold and developers are turning to being landlords.

Nobody wants to talk about Calgary because it is not the norm. It ‘is’ different here even though the patch has slowed down, budgets cut, credit lines cut, and layoffs still going on.

No real estate slowdown here at all and there will not be hence why nobody wants to talk about it on this site.

#82 earlybird on 08.06.12 at 11:16 am

Poor marco, I guess you dont know what you dont know….

#83 VT on 08.06.12 at 11:23 am

#32 joe the realtor on 08.05.12 at 11:53 pm

Garth you just don’t understand that without RE the GTA is doomed. Do you not understand people are losing their jobs left and right ever since the downturn took hold? If the market continues like this unemployment will explode higher and peoples net worth will crumble with housing prices. That is a bad thing you stupid basement blog dogs don’t understand.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This post from a realtor proves that we have passed the “denial” stage and are now in the “anger” phase of the real estate bubble.

Advice to Joe. Sell whatever real estate “investment” holdings you have now and if your commission business is slowing, begin to look for alternate sources of income.

#84 Mithan on 08.06.12 at 11:36 am

Come to Regina Garth, in the middle of Canada we could use some wisdom about RE and investment in general.

People here really do believe 100% that due to Potash, Wheat and Oil, Saskatchewan is on the never ending track to prosperity and that building a 1000 sq foot bungalow for $450k and another $4500 a year in property tax in Harbor Landing is a wise thing to do.

#85 luke8929 on 08.06.12 at 11:40 am

CB’s make cheap money available primarily so that the .gov can fund itself. Rates go up and the .gov is in trouble, look at what is happening in Europe. ECB and other funding operations step in to buy the bonds to keep them functioning. Let me take a stab at this, Primary dealers (banks) borrow from the CB at low discount rates, they use the money to buy treasuries or bonds which still make money even at the historically low rates being offered by the sovereign. The banks then use them as collateral on the original loan from the CB or they use the money to buy equities, commodities which cause bubbles.

The housing bubble is done its only a question of how fast and far it deflates. So where the next bubble, equities or perhaps sovereigns is is my guess. Market has to stay up or several large pension plans and private retirement plans are in trouble. The largest issue with equities that I see is no oversight and no rule of law,MF global, penson, Knight etc. Not touching the market until we see some jail time.

The big one is sovereign spending, that’s the bubble to reset them all but I think we get Japan style deflation as opposed to a crash, pretty sure that’s what all this intervention is about because its better to pass it along to the next guy to deal with. Off course they could lose control of rates or the real economy goes into the tank even with more QE and low rates.

Like everyone else I am making a guess on what the CB`s do next and will it continue to work, place your bets the CB`s are the house and the financial world is one big casino.

#86 Babblemaster on 08.06.12 at 11:46 am

#69 bigrider

Your ignorance is extreme. The Italian contribution to western civilization is unparalleled. The very alphabet you are employing to write your hateful drivel comes from Rome (it’s located in Italy, BTW). The words you’re using came predominantly from Latin (spoken by the Romans who lived in Italy, BTW) and Greek. When Rome fell, the western world descended into darkness. It took the Italians to again bring light to it (called the renaissance, BTW).

Modern Italy is a G7 country and they have a GDP almost equivalent to Canada in terms of per capita. The difference is that they’ve done it through innovation and, yes, technology. You see, they don’t have a lot of trees or things they can dig out of the ground and export (as Canada does).

Perhaps you should change your moniker to bigidiot. That would be much more appropriate.

Garth, why do allow this nonsense to sully your blog?

#87 GregW, Oakville on 08.06.12 at 12:00 pm

Hi #$45 Nastra, Thanks for the links.

You might enjoy these pics, and a link to Aug.’s IEEE mag.

http://yougottobekidding.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/you-dont-have-to-look-like-me-to-be-my-friend/

http://spectrum.ieee.org/

#88 PoorgEoisie on 08.06.12 at 12:09 pm

Anyone have stats on death and the number of people who leave the GTA every year? One would think that number would take a chunk out of the 50,000 (or100k) immigrants.

#89 Westernman on 08.06.12 at 12:09 pm

Mithan @ # 84,
No use trying to educate the masses in Sask. They know everything – just ask them.
Half a mil to have a crappy bung in Sask? Give them more rope I say and watch the show…

#90 John Tivoli on 08.06.12 at 12:17 pm

Vancouver west side SFH inventory has increased 64% from a year ago. The MOI has gone from 4.5 MOI to 12.5 MOI.

Greater Vancouver the inventory has increased from 5.8 MOI to 10 MOI.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/08/august-2012-real-estate-market-report.html

#91 Gunboat Denier on 08.06.12 at 12:22 pm

77 Spiltbongwater – I dont know why Garth slammed you as in most studies immigration from an adjoining country
is either discounted or given a lower weight to minimize the effect you mention.

#92 bill on 08.06.12 at 12:54 pm

#86 Babblemaster on 08.06.12 at 11:46 am
hey you know bigrider is italian eh?
he often pokes fun at himself and his ancestry.

#93 live within your means on 08.06.12 at 1:00 pm

Just rec’d the following from a friend. So true. Hope the link works.

#94 live within your means on 08.06.12 at 1:05 pm

Oops – Guess my ‘paste’ didn’t work. Hopefully it will this time.

http://play.simpletruths.com/movie/the-empty-pickle-jar/?cm_mmc=CheetahMail-_FR-_-06.15.12-_-PickleJarMovie&utm_source=CheetahMail&utm_campaign=PickleJarMovie

#95 bigrider on 08.06.12 at 1:09 pm

#86 Babblemaster.

Chill out and stop babbleing .You really are a master at it.

I am well aware of Italy’s contribution to the world and it’s history. I could not be more proud to be a descendant of it, nor more proud of my relatives who immigrated from there.

However, I am sure you would agree, that the immigrant Italian population here in the GTA is not an accurate representation of Italians residing in Italy, nor more than the Sopranos are ,or the idiots on Jersey Shore.

Take a chill pill already.

#96 White Rock Mom on 08.06.12 at 1:21 pm

#15. Ever heard of Enron? Employees lost their job, their stock options, their pensions and houses….everything! That’s why concentration is not so wise.

#97 Cowtown Refugee on 08.06.12 at 1:22 pm

#32 joe the realtor on 08.05.12 at 11:53 pm

Garth you just don’t understand that without RE the GTA is doomed. Do you not understand people are losing their jobs left and right ever since the downturn took hold? If the market continues like this unemployment will explode higher and peoples net worth will crumble with housing prices. That is a bad thing you stupid basement blog dogs don’t understand.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Spoken like a terrified pathetic fool who thinks that RE is an investment. RE DESTROYED the US middle class and it is doing the same thing in Canada.

As to being a basement dweller, I sold my paid for million $$ house in Calgary and now rent a four bedroom three car house with a man cave and a media room for a fraction of what it would cost me to buy. My landlord subsidizes my lifestyle and each month he loses about $1-$2K in the price of his house.

Yeah…. I’m an idiot.

#98 eaglebay - Parksville on 08.06.12 at 1:22 pm

#41 daystar on 08.06.12 at 12:33 am

OK post. I almost agree with you.
Don’t bet against China.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/China+proposes+projects+spur+investment/7011395/story.html

#99 a prairie dawg on 08.06.12 at 1:24 pm

#86 Babblemaster

The Italian contribution to western civilization is unparalleled.

– — –

Lately though, it’s taking a beating…

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/01/no-balls-ruling-italy-illegal_n_1729908.html?ref=crime?source=storiesweheart

#100 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.12 at 1:25 pm

No diaper bag for baby Spiderman?

#101 Kim on 08.06.12 at 1:27 pm

#32 joe the realtor on 08.05.12 at 11:53 pm Garth you just don’t understand that without RE the GTA is doomed. Do you not understand people are losing their jobs left and right ever since the downturn took hold? If the market continues like this unemployment will explode higher and peoples net worth will crumble with housing prices. That is a bad thing you stupid basement blog dogs don’t understand.
———————————————————-
No , You don’t understand that an economy based on RE is a ponzi scheme and we are in now in free fall. Realtors are nothing but a joke.

#102 leo on 08.06.12 at 1:30 pm

Canada’s Housing Bubble Blow Out Amid Global Collapse.

http://comiterepubliquecanada.ca/Canada-s-Housing-Bubble-Blow-Out

#103 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.12 at 1:35 pm

Jeffrey Simpon’s take on why Canadian healthcare sucks:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/canadas-unhealthy-medicare-superiority-complex/article4380638/

#104 Tony on 08.06.12 at 1:53 pm

Re: #37 Edmonton Dave on 08.06.12 at 12:14 am

Read up on the definition of deflation.

#105 DM in C on 08.06.12 at 1:55 pm

Cory, get a grip man, you’re taking the Calgary market way too personally. And we’ve talked about it plenty on this blog.

OHHHHH I get it.

#106 Old Man on 08.06.12 at 1:58 pm

I wonder why nobody ever talks about real estate in Montreal? Now when the big cities fall it is like throwing a rock into a pond with a wave action that will spread out of fear and panic all across Canada, as buyers will step back, and sellers will panic. Some locations will get hit harder than others, but location, quality, and charm with first class desire will survive as Lunenburg, Nova Scotia is a winner.

All bets are off for Montreal real estate until we see what happens with the election slugfest. PQ = purgatory. — Garth

#107 cramar on 08.06.12 at 2:00 pm

#64 House Horny Housewife & #76 Linda Pearson

You ladies have brought back lots of fond memories and nostalgia of a childhood spent in East York. There were no rich and no poor in my world-everyone lower middle class. The rich lived north of the O’conner Bridge. The only crime I was aware of was avoiding getting punched out by some bully. Being the same age as you Linda, I can remember when they built the East York Arena and of Whipper Billy Watson and Yukon Eric. Of hot summer days as the horse-drawn ice wagon would deliver blocks of ice to the ones on our street who still had ice chests. As soon as he went into the house, we would raid the wagon for shards of ice. (I had to stretch for that one, since soon the ice wagons became trucks.) Of walking down to the ‘Danforth’ which was the local shopping ‘mall’ in those days. Of my mother taking me on the TTC street car to Yonge Street to visit Eatons and Simpsons.

I could go on and on, but like you I have many happy memories of a childhood in Toronto. Unlike others, I wouldn’t live there today if I was given a free house. I’d sell it as fast as possible, laugh the way to the bank, and still move to a smaller town.

#108 bill on 08.06.12 at 2:11 pm

linda pearson
malton airport…. dates you slightly.
my mom is from brampton. the etobicoke runs through there as I recall. prime frog catching country if ever I have seen it.
and treasures to delight the youthful mind hidden away in old barns….like a ww1 heavy [it sure was] machine gun ,less the tripod. and ammo fortunately.
that caused some little concern from mother ,granny and the various aunties when it was produced just before lunch. they insisted that it be returned….

#109 Mark W on 08.06.12 at 2:15 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/weston-bungalow-sells-for-481000-over-asking/article4458103/

#110 TRT on 08.06.12 at 2:32 pm

Food Prices to go up 4% next year due to drought says economists.

Expect Canadian Inflation data to conveniently omit this next year in their basket of goods.

Expect retailers to charge 6% +. This is an opportunity for them to raise prices beyond what is necessary.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1237773–drought-to-push-food-prices-up-3-to-4-rbc

#111 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 08.06.12 at 2:46 pm

#109 Mark W on 08.06.12 at 2:15 pm http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/weston-bungalow-sells-for-481000-over-asking/article4458103/

This is an
———Old story – sold on 16th of May—————–

Realtors are in an all out panic posting old sales and trying to pass it off as new.

#112 TRT on 08.06.12 at 2:48 pm

#66 T.O. Bubble Boy,

What I can tell you about South Asians (my ancestry) is that the first thing on their minds after getting to Canada is to purchase a house. Preferably detached. It does not matter whether they are rich or poor (something blog dogs dwell on too much). Owning a home is a primary goal. Why?

In India, most real estate transactions of homes is done in cash. No mortgages or amortizations to deal with. If you are wealthy, you will stay wealthy, unless you have a dozen kids and your land holdings get diluted. If you are poor, well you are mostly going to stay poor. Wages are suppressed due to population growth creating more workers than needed (especially when combined with a huge ‘poor’ class).

Now, give the ‘poor’ class access to funds (CMHC ) after they immigrate and THEY will take it without a thought. Within a matter of a year, a poor person from India can come here and own a home after getting all this loaned money – something they would never get in India. So why wouldn’t they take it?? They are amazed that someone (CMHC) would give/loan them money — something that would never happen in S. Asia.

Hence, the housing bubble tied to RE… Does not matter whether Rich or Poor.

#113 Victoria on 08.06.12 at 3:02 pm

Oh yes immigrants can easily get jobs in canada. I met enough taxi drivers that after I was chatting a bit found out they had Masters Degree’s. These people were not young. The guy who delivered us our weekly pizza was an Economist from Bulgaria. When I was in the hospital on bed rest for a week before my 2nd baby was born and lovely lady came to the hospital to do my nails and pretty me up. She was a traveling manicurist etc. She knew so much about my condition. Why? She was a pediatrician in Kazakhstan. She could not work as a doctor here. She thought she could be a nurse then but they said she would be bored – over-qualified. So there was I in a Toronto hospital with a woman with way more education than me – sitting on the floor doing my nails.

All the engineers that came over from Romania and actually could work as engineers, main goal was to get to the U.S. My friend is a headhunter for the engineering industry.

i know many people from India and they say many are leaving to go back or their adult kids are because there is more opportunity in India. My girlfriend who is Indian (Masters Degree) and her Husband (Lawyer but works as a karate instructor – can’t work in Canada as a lawyer) are thinking of moving back. She says in India families are closer, people can afford to go on holidays and the standard of living (for the middle/upper middle class) is improving year after year.

There we go. Yup immigrants will help keep the property market afloat.

BTW – when I had laser eye surgery a cute Irish “assistant” was doing the testing to see if I was a candidate. After chatting a bit she said she was going back to Ireland. She was actually an eye doctor and here for her husband but Canada would not let her work as a doctor in Canada so she worked as an assistant. She also thought Canadian health care sucked.

#114 jess on 08.06.12 at 3:08 pm

anon:

clever eh?
http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/optionsbackdating.htm

golden parachute club

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1848501_1848500_1848464,00.html
e.g. The Commission alleges that between 1994 and 2005, UnitedHealth concealed more than $1 billion in stock option compensation by providing senior executives and other employees with “in-the-money” options while secretly backdating the grants to avoid reporting the expenses to investors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UnitedHealth_Group
http://retheauditors.com/2012/08/05/more-sarbanes-oxley-anniversary-thoughts/

#115 Victoria on 08.06.12 at 3:11 pm

#103,

I lived in France for 13 years and had babies born in France and babies born in Canada. Surgery in France and Surgery in Canada.

The care in France is vastly superior. Now living in Victoria and living for 6 years in Toronto I met many people from Europe and other countries who were working in Canada usually in professional positions. Everyone says that the healthcare here sucks. Even my babysitter from Latvia thought the care was a joke. She couldn’t find a doctor. I was also amazed that the Brits are always dissing the Canadian health care system.

Canadians put up with so much.

#116 neo on 08.06.12 at 3:19 pm

#109Mark W

Apparently this property sold the 16th of May. This isn’t a recent sale. Kind of reeks of desparation.

#117 Paul on 08.06.12 at 3:21 pm

You can’t just count immigrants. You need to look at net migrants. If you factor in people leaving Canada for other countries, the net migrant total is under 200k per year.

#118 a prairie dawg on 08.06.12 at 3:26 pm

#100 Bottoms_Up

No diaper bag for baby Spiderman?

– — –

He’ll just spin one when the baby needs one.
He’s Spiderman. ;)

#119 Soylent Green is People on 08.06.12 at 4:01 pm

In 2014, which is just two years away, the federal government will negotiate the Healthcare for each province in Canada…

Do you want Harper closing that deal?

Stephen Harper, In His Own Words:
Let’s Privatize our Health Care
2 min. cartoon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWAFuwz-15s

…………………………..

#120 Soylent Green is People on 08.06.12 at 4:02 pm

Read this report before you slag Canada’s healthcare system

Rather, it deals mostly with the puzzle of the United States. Why is it that the country which spends 50 per cent more on health than any other advanced nation gets such poor results?

America is truly the outlier. It spends about 16 per cent of its gross domestic product on health care. Most other developed nations (including Canada) spend in the neighbourhood of 10 per cent. A few, including Japan, Australia and Norway, are closer to 8 per cent.

Yet the U.S. routinely scores worst in most basic health indicators — including life expectancy and infant mortality. Why?

The report doesn’t give a definitive answer. But it does zero in on two elements that Canadians may find useful.

First, it makes the obvious point that health involves more than doctors, hospitals and drugs. It suggests that Japan’s high life expectancy is related more to diet than anything else (the Japanese are far less obese than Americans).

And it points out that the countries with some of the worst health outcomes are often those with the most poverty.

That Canada has the second-highest level of infant mortality among advanced nations may have little to do with our health care system and much to do with the fact that our poverty rate is almost as high as America’s.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/992875–walkom-read-this-report-before-you-slag-canada-s-healthcare-system?bn=1

.
.
.
.

#121 Soylent Green is People on 08.06.12 at 4:05 pm

The health-care sky is not falling !

It would be nice if those who spew fire and brimstone about rocketing health costs would read the annual CIHI reports. Then maybe we could get onto the three big issues that get little or no media attention.

First, we don’t have to spend a lot more money to the fix the system. Most of health care’s problems — from long wait times to inadequate follow-up of chronic illness — are due to antiquated, provider-focused processes of care. The remedy — a high-performing, patient-friendly system. And, contrary to the ill-informed Canadian chin-wag consensus, this shouldn’t mean higher costs. To quote the 2001 Saskatchewan health-care royal commission, “better quality care almost always costs less.”

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1085813–the-health-care-sky-is-not-falling#.TsEWkPWyBGo.facebook

.

#122 Soylent Green is People on 08.06.12 at 4:06 pm

Harper has done more to weaken Canada’s public health-care

During a campaign stop Tuesday in Thunder Bay, Harper claimed that only a majority Tory government “can be trusted” to continue to invest heavily in health care. He went on to declare he is committed to “a universal public health-care system that is fully financed. That is this government’s No. 1 priority and that will be its position.”

Despite his professed new-found love of medicare, the truth is that Harper has done more to weaken and dismantle Canada’s public health-care system than any other politician since it was established in 1966.

Indeed, throughout his entire career as an elected politician and as president of a right-wing lobby group, Harper has worked openly against medicare.

The evidence is overwhelming and goes back almost two decades. Tellingly, Harper has said or done nothing to disavow or distance himself from any of it.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/978068–hepburn-the-truth-about-harper-and-medicare

.

#123 really on 08.06.12 at 4:09 pm

Hey Garth,

Canada is built on RE and consumer spending and they are both super connected with each other. Wealth effect, etc.

What p*sse* me off is that when the market starts to collapse in Canada, the government is going to make fiscal moves with MY money (with ALL canadians money) in order to protect the economy (made up primarily of stupid people who live and spend beyond their means) at the expense of everyone.

I want the market to deal with the market. If people are idiots and have bought into the market then they get to lose and the pickings should be left for the smart ones to grab.

Our market will start to collapse, it already has actually, but before it gets really bad the government is going to step in and give us the worst of both worlds:

They are going to help the stupid spenders while punishing the smart savers. Instead of a full 40-50% collapse in real estate we are going to have a muted fall.

They wont let the market deal with the market.

Which means we are going to have a long winter.

#124 cramar on 08.06.12 at 4:20 pm

So now we know for sure! It’s OFFICIAL! It is settled once and for all! The BPOE is Lunenburg, NS!!! Right from the guru’s own mouth!

History, culture, charm, friendliness, quality of life, all top notch! Even an UNESCO World Heritage Town (try that Toronto). Only negative is weather. Too much precipitation for my liking. But a great place to visit in July.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/statistics/CL8206240/cans0082/

My wife has been wanting to drive through the Rockies, but we have done that before. Yet we have never been east of Quebec. I’ll keep it in mind for next summer.

#125 OlderbutWiser on 08.06.12 at 4:29 pm

“I don’t own a single stock”. You said in an earlier blog posting that you would only recommend owning individual stocks if you had a seven figure portfolio. Surely a man of your financial acumen has a seven figure portfolio!!!!

The more zeroes you own, the less sense it makes courting volatility. — Garth

#126 OlderbutWiser on 08.06.12 at 4:48 pm

I used to invest in mutual funds but sold those to follow a dividend growth investing strategy. I invest mainly in large blue-chip multinationals listed on the US exchange. I do not own any ETF’s but I am always interested in learning about investing strategies and how they can help me acheive my retirement goals. Reducing volatility is important. I have done some research on ETF’s lately (the universe of offerings is enormous) but would be interested in your thoughts. Will make sure that I sign up to hear you when you come to Toronto.

#127 ANONYMOUS on 08.06.12 at 4:56 pm

It was not me who wrote #55 and #56, who ever that was I will find him and KILL him, promise.

I don’t drive a sports car, or a luxury car. I not really too sure where Conestogo is, but around the University Avenue part around RIM Park, homes are selling quickly and I’m disappointed by that because I wanted home prices to fall, not rise.

The guy who Wrote #55 and #56 has SH!T FOR BRAINS and he knows it too. (no, it was not me who wrote those words, and yes, my I.Q. is just ‘average’.)

Here in Waterloo I’ve seen only one Audio R8 and a Lambo only twice (same one both times). I have never seen a McLaren in my life. Frankly, I like the reliability of Toyota. I have had lots of problems with GM / Ford and a few with Mazda / Honda, but almost none with the Toyota’s I’ve had, so even though they are boring I stick with them ( Buy a Lexus if you need luxury, Lexus ‘is’ Toyota too. )

Posting #56: Is that guy on drugs? What the heck is he talking about?

A poster called Anonymous is claiming identity theft. This blog terrifies me. — Garth

#128 Devore on 08.06.12 at 5:07 pm

#4 Tim

Apparently there are over one million millionaires in China. Whether two thirds of them got their money illegally is not the point. What if ten percent of them want to move to Canada?

What if aliens land on the planet?

Is this the kind of stuff that keeps you up at night?

#129 Devore on 08.06.12 at 5:18 pm

#47 truth hammer

On the back of each minivan ( which is the de rigeur HAM vehicle du jour) I spotted condo’s advertised FSBO with those little cut strips for tearing off with contact numbers dilligently inscribed on each finger.

The Kelowna/OK region is overflowing with FSBOs. This is a massive amount of inventory that does not show up on MLS and is not counted in the official stats.

#130 Devore on 08.06.12 at 5:32 pm

#66 T.O. Bubble Boy

One thing I find different about Toronto – there are thousands of people immigrating from almost every country on earth… so, when someone quotes “100,000 immigrants per year”, it is definitely not accurate to assume this represents 100,000 rich Chinese/Indian/Middle Eastern investors with suitcases full of money.

“100,000 immigrants per year” is an irrelevant number. The only thing that matters is how many households there are, and what type of housing they can afford.

#131 Questioning Calgary stats on 08.06.12 at 5:44 pm

#81 Cory

Some of the new mortgage rules and regulations have only very recently been implemented. More on the way soon. Calgary is not different. House prices were pushed into bubble territory due to cheap and easy credit. That cheap and easy credit pipeline is currently in the process of being shut down.

In 2008-2009 Calgary real estate fell in value 20% in the span of about a year. That was more than almost any other Canadian city.

Calgary real estate will be as vulnerable to the new mortgage rules and regulations as any other city.

This time, when Calgary house prices drop 20%, there will be no dramatic, unprecedented, emergency intervention such as in 2009.

The size of the 2009 intervention was beyond comprehension for most people. In 2009 CMHC had about $300 B on its books. Today, only 3 years later, that total is now almost $600 B.

That gives you an idea of how much free and easy credit was made available for high risk mortgages over the last 3 years. Yet, Calgary house prices did not even set new highs. Almost every other Canadian city did.

Give the new rules time to kick in. You could easily see a 40% drop in Calgary house prices over the next 2 years.

#132 Bobby Brown on 08.06.12 at 5:45 pm

ANONYMOUS wrote “It was not me who wrote #55 and #56, who ever that was I will find him and KILL him, promise.

I don’t drive a sports car, or a luxury car. I not really too sure where Conestogo is, but around the University Avenue part around RIM Park, homes are selling quickly and I’m disappointed by that because I wanted home prices to fall, not rise.

The guy who Wrote #55 and #56 has SH!T FOR BRAINS and he knows it too. (no, it was not me who wrote those words, and yes, my I.Q. is just ‘average’.)

Here in Waterloo I’ve seen only one Audio R8 and a Lambo only twice (same one both times). I have never seen a McLaren in my life. Frankly, I like the reliability of Toyota. I have had lots of problems with GM / Ford and a few with Mazda / Honda, but almost none with the Toyota’s I’ve had, so even though they are boring I stick with them ( Buy a Lexus if you need luxury, Lexus ‘is’ Toyota too. )

Posting #56: Is that guy on drugs? What the heck is he talking about?”

You live near RIM park but dont know where Conestogo is? Come on, you wrote all of those stupid posts. How about you list all the addresses of the homes that have sold fast?

#133 Spiltbongwater on 08.06.12 at 5:55 pm

I wasn’t stereotyping, I was making a statement about LA immigrants and where they come from mostly. Have you not seen the documentary Born in East LA? They show the Mexicans running accross the border, and I did not notice one carrying a bag of pesos with them to buy up their dream home in LA.

A TV doc. Must be true. — Garth

#134 tkid on 08.06.12 at 5:57 pm

#32 jtr

Joe, we already know that real estate is what has kept the party going in Canada for the last five years. But there is no avoiding what is to come next.

Real estate values will plummet in Canada. The impact of this will hit a lot of people very hard. Warning people of what is inevitable does not mean that one causes the inevitable to occur. You are confusing the message with the messenger.

I hope you and yours are doing well, Joe.

#135 Dan7 on 08.06.12 at 6:00 pm

Robert Kessler agrees with Garth. Deflation is coming

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if6JYk4crP0&feature=g-all-u

#136 Click Here, its different. on 08.06.12 at 6:03 pm

How can you define realtors optimism ?
He still irons 5 shirts each sunday.

#137 Gypsy Kid on 08.06.12 at 6:33 pm

wow.
people are so angry today…

born and raised in T.O. and i love it here, in spite of the insane mayor.

the recent condo-madness makes me sad though. enough is enough….

#138 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 08.06.12 at 6:38 pm

“the stock market is also a rigged game where the likes of Goldman Sachs and the other big boys can smash and manipulate anything they want. People don’t want to put their money there anymore, nor should they. When that market crashes, within a couple of days a person can lose almost everything they saved. At least with a home you can live in it and rent it out. Remember Garth, the government and the bankers only care about the super rich.”

I actually agree with this 100%. It is true that a house has utility value whereas stocks only have exchange value. But that doesn’t mean our stratospheric property prices are justified. As bearish as I am about real estate, at least a SFH on a plot of land will always hold SOME value.

I also agree that the stock market is rigged and the government and banks only care about the rich.

Based on what? — Garth

#139 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.06.12 at 6:52 pm


#56 ANONYMOUS — “RIM is a company that comes around once in a generation; . . .” — So were Bre-X and Nortel. How is that working out for you?

#60 Click Here, its different. — “Owners just adds whiskey.” — Lots of it too, with the Bovine Excrometer pushing forth their neocon agenda!

#67 neo and #74 Canadian Watchdog — Good posts. With the RE slide underway, insecurity about jobs etc., how many will have to max out their LOC – HELOCs just for the basics in life? Chances are these will happen roughly at the same time.

#102 leo — Great link. Taking all the worldwide BS into account, debts. deficits, wars etc., the west has become a giant bubble monster of itself, and when this bubble is pricked, the resulting hurricane will be nothing like any of us have ever seen or experienced.

#87 GregW, Oakville — Good to hear from you! Thanks for the links. Great pix in the first one. It’s a pity that humanity can’t be like the animals, and learn to get on with each other.

Second link is good. The powerout a couple of weeks ago in India is a reminder to us, because of our decaying infrastructure. Cheers!

#122 Soylent Green is People — “Harper has done more to weaken Canada’s public health-care” — Thanks for the update. Now the CPC have a majority, they pretty much have carte blanche to do what they want, when they want it.

Harper and others (such as Soros / Obomba) are warmongers, and are thoroughly enjoying themselves like pigs rolling in a mudfest.

#140 45north on 08.06.12 at 7:07 pm

well sorry, Ben Rabidoux said that the drop would have “implications”

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/06/19/contrarians-2/

“implications” has been upgraded to a “macro event”

Vancouver crash would be major macro event with implications for Canadian banks:

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/vancouver-housing-full-correction-mode-implications-canadian-banks

Flaherty announced tightened mortgage rules just as Parliament recessed for the summer. If you extrapolate Vancouver’s housing sales out to September then you have a macro event that has major implications for Canadian politics. In fact if the 2012 sales fall below those for 2008, then Garth’s appearance August 20 will be a major political event.

#141 Zero-coupon US Treasur. on 08.06.12 at 7:15 pm

hey garth,

do you hold any u.s. treasuries?

#142 Babblemaster on 08.06.12 at 7:23 pm

#92 Bill

No one is more prone to self-deprecatory humour than myself. Hence the moniker “Babblemaster”. However, when someone starts to poke fun at homemade spaghetti sauce, well… that really is crossing the line! How can I extol the wondrous taste of that red nectar? Once you’ve had the real stuff. Nothing else will do. That’s why Italians toil long hours making the stuff. We (meaning the members of this blog) cannot allow this attack on the Italian national sauce to go unchallenged. If we do, then what’s next? A vitriolic attack on homemade Italian sausages? This nonsense has to stop now. Basta!!!!

#143 Nemesis on 08.06.12 at 7:44 pm

@#129Devore/#136 ClickHereIt’sDifferent…

…”overflowing with FSBOs.”…

…”still irons 5 shirts each sunday”…

It’s “worse” than you think. Taking in the neighbours’ laundry just won’t cut it anymore…

http://tinyurl.com/cehzte9

#144 Daisy Mae on 08.06.12 at 7:46 pm

#107 Cramer: “…of hot summer days as the horse-drawn ice wagon would deliver blocks of ice to the ones on our street who still had ice chests. As soon as he went into the house, we would raid the wagon for shards of ice. (I had to stretch for that one, since soon the ice wagons became trucks.)

****************

I remember the trucks…chasing ’em down the street. Come to think of it, by todays standards that ice had to be contaminated big time. But we survived… LOL

#145 Daisy Mae on 08.06.12 at 7:53 pm

#107 CRAMER: “….Of my mother taking me on the TTC street car to Yonge Street to visit Eatons and Simpsons….”

****************

We were easy to please, weren’t we? I was born/raised in Vancouver…

#146 truth hammer on 08.06.12 at 7:54 pm

#129 DEV…exactly as i said…the real estate boards as such serve no one except the sales brigade and yet profess to announce information as if it is gospel…….these real estate boards are self serving rip offs that deserve only contempt…..anyone believing anything that comes from a commissioned sales funded business is an idiot. The reality …as you pointed out is much different than the ‘boards’ are letting on.

Go HAM…fire your realtard !!! How can you develop an important financial relationship with someone who is lying to you from the get go?

Did anyone catch the slip from Global the other night when they interviewed two ‘experts’ back to back and got two entirely opposite answers? First TSUR SOM……rville from the realtor funded UB* real estate class who says ‘up up up’ as always….and then the economist who said………”Look out below…crash coming no doubt!!!!!!”

These peckerwoods are so full of crap that any decent society would put them behind bars.

#147 Daisy Mae on 08.06.12 at 8:00 pm

108bill on 08.06.12 at 2:11 pm
linda pearson
“malton airport…. dates you slightly”

***************

So what?

#148 Daisy Mae on 08.06.12 at 8:10 pm

127ANONYMOUS on 08.06.12 at 4:56 pm
It was not me who wrote #55 and #56, who ever that was I will find him and KILL him, promise.

I don’t drive a sports car, or a luxury car. I not really too sure where Conestogo is, but around the University Avenue part around RIM Park, homes are selling quickly and I’m disappointed by that because I wanted home prices to fall, not rise.

**********

It was probably BPOE…

#149 gary in Kelowna on 08.06.12 at 8:12 pm

Garth,
You say that you don’t own a single stock. You have also said that unless you have a $1M investment portfolio not to invest in individual stocks. So should we presume that you have less than $1M in investment assets and more of your $$ tied up in real estate investments?
Thanks

No. You’re welcome. — Garth

#150 L Racine on 08.06.12 at 8:13 pm

“I would say we are in the midst of hyper inflation and not deflation as you say…”

Hyper inflation is accompanied with a large increase in wages and that is NOT happening.

Were did this guy get his education!

#151 P & T S on 08.06.12 at 8:14 pm

Dear Nostra – maybe those who are doing this – http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/doomsday-group-charging-5000-for-spot-in-end-of-the-world-bunker-near-tenterfield/story-fndo45r1-1226443186943 – have been reading this – http://www.crawford2000.co.uk/2012-orion-prophecy-catastrophe-pole-shift.htm.

Personally we’re planning for a nice long sailing trip in 2013 so we hope any apocalypse can be delayed, by a few centuries at least!

#152 TurnerNation on 08.06.12 at 8:28 pm

For a laugh I travelled westward on the Internet. I see Bob the realtor is in a Panic over this pathetic weblog. Probably what happens after a lifetime of wearing too-tight cowboy jeans.

I guess sales must be that slow.

#153 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.06.12 at 8:33 pm


#151 P & T S — “Personally we’re planning for a nice long sailing trip in 2013 so we hope any apocalypse can be delayed, by a few centuries at least!
” — Not sure if it can be delayed that long, but a few years should cover your trip!
*
2:31 clip A good news story? Mercy! Pension deficit Max out the TFSAs in case Harper’s goon squad does the same here; 12:20 clip Fraud and theft now a part of the learning curve; Serbia “Independence” for Central Banks has led to mass poverty and fraud as a business model. Serbia has the right idea, although Iran still holds the lead on the correct solution to this financial crisis.” wrh.com; The Other Side of Sanctions “Iran has been pushed into a corner and is fighting for its life. The safest weapon in its arsenal is an economic strategy; and it is the one point where the United States is vulnerable.”, which goes with this; What Happens? See headline; End of America? No, the Caucasian Cycle is at an end, and the Yellow / Red races will succeed us, and Please Shut Up China tells the US to shut it; Wall St. never lets its friends down.
*
4:37 clip A slightly different take on 9-11, and remember, remote controls can fly all kinds of planes; Hardly a Hero “Funny how this story, where a mass shooting was stopped cold by a citizen with a legally owned firearm just never got the coverage the Wisconsin shooting did.” wrh.com; Neocons How they have destroyed America’s (and Canada’s) sovereignty; 14:08 clip Who supports Assad? The list may surprise; Reuters has Twitter acct. hacked; GMOs sterilizes animals; Boy Scouts of America This is letting the fox run the hen-house. Stupid.

#154 TaxHaven on 08.06.12 at 8:52 pm

Seems like posts on gold, which is said to have performed badly (-15%) as a speculation, are NOT allowed here.

Nonetheless, I have an asset which cost me $200K five years ago and is now immediately saleable, capital gains tax-free, for $322K. I won’t say what it is.

If it’s not your principal residence, it’s taxable. — Garth

#155 bill on 08.06.12 at 9:02 pm

147 Daisy Mae on 08.06.12 at 8:00 pm
exactly – so what. why would you think that to be anything other than a pleasant memory shared?

#156 bill on 08.06.12 at 9:11 pm

babblemaster
the finer points of a good tomato sauce may escape me however I have have had some decent italian food on occasion and can safely say it is an international treasure.
bearing in mind ‘the haggis’ for purposes of comparison.

#157 cramar on 08.06.12 at 9:40 pm

#145 Daisy Mae on 08.06.12 at 7:53 pm
#107 CRAMER: “….Of my mother taking me on the TTC street car to Yonge Street to visit Eatons and Simpsons….”

****************

We were easy to please, weren’t we? I was born/raised in Vancouver…

==================

Yeah… how did we ever survive our boring Canadian childhoods without smart phones, video games, computers, or widescreen HDTV?

#158 live within your means on 08.06.12 at 9:57 pm

#135 Dan7 on 08.06.12 at 6:00 pm
Robert Kessler agrees with Garth. Deflation is coming

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if6JYk4crP0&feature=g-all-u

………….

Happened to watch that too.

#159 InvestX on 08.06.12 at 10:51 pm

4InvestX on 08.06.12 at 12:46 am
“And I don’t have a single stock.”

No bank preferreds?

They are not equity, but fixed income. — Garth
———————————————————

Not considered stock?

Nope. — Garth

#160 agioblue on 08.06.12 at 11:19 pm

An innocent real estate investor provides you with profound psychological insight you desperately need and provides well thought out arguments as to why you may be wrong and you spend 1000+ words belittling and mocking him on your own blog? You insecure insensitive prick.

#161 Gunboat Denier on 08.06.12 at 11:50 pm

157 Cramar – or seatbelts, bike helmets and 911?

#162 InvestX on 08.07.12 at 12:33 am

InvestX: Not considered stock?

Nope. — Garth

————————-
So Investopedia’s “Primer of Preferred Stock” is incorrect?

“Technically, they are equity securities, but they share many characteristics with debt instruments.”

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/preferredstock.asp?viewed=1#ixzz22pcTUPCU

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/preferredstock.asp?viewed=1#axzz22pbjwbno

Preferreds are considered fixed income. — Garth

#163 Alberta Guy on 08.07.12 at 5:53 pm

If it’s not your principal residence, it’s taxable. — Garth

So can you have a principal residence outside of Canada? ie you own in usa and live there max 182 days per year and you dont own real estate in canada. You rent in canada and or live with relatives or are on vacation in canada for the other 183 days

#164 Vancouver Thunder on 08.07.12 at 7:54 pm

And the US dollar is the safest of havens. — Garth

I cant wait for you to address this statement in detail at the Vancouver Conference!

You can’t argue with the bond market. — Garth

#165 Sebee on 08.09.12 at 2:07 pm

Has anyone noticed a storyline in last three pictures? Questionable union, he goes weird, she whacks him to hide the shame.