Between 2000 and 2006, US home prices doubled. So far, between 2006 and 2012, they’ve lost 32% of their value. The result has been global recession, a brush with depression, structural unemployment, middle class gutting and a debt overhang that still threatens the future.
So, an asset can rise 100%, then correct by only a third, and still cause mayhem.
In Canada, home prices in our largest cities climbed 125% over the past twelve years. Nationally, they haven’t even started to correct. Sales are fading or falling in several major markets, while market values have tumbled most notably in BC. Richmond, Vancouver Westside, Kelowna, Victoria, Burnaby – now becoming ground zero for the nascent correction.
Of course, as a couple of articles here this week have pointed out, you just can’t trust the market data we’re being given. Average prices look back, not forward. Real estate board numbers track an amalgam of sales, they don’t telegraph the latest market changes. The MLS Home Price Index is a sham. And as realtor Ross Kay described two days ago, the end of bidding wars everywhere – which routinely added 15% to selling prices – means a market like Toronto is already in double-digit decline. Finally (as the article on Brampton showed), a house can sell for 25% less than its original ask, and be recorded in the official stats as going for 97% of its list price.
This all means by the time CREA’s average national value falls by 15% (my first benchmark), we’ll be in the middle of a rout in most major markets. The slow melt which settles in after that – based on abysmal growth projections and household debt deleveraging – could put us in the same situation the Yanks are coping with now.
At that point it will be too late to sell, and too early to buy. This is exactly where the Americans have been for the past number of seasons. The only safe purchasers were those who bottom-fed, snapping up foreclosures and distressed short sales. That’s why even a year ago – as US home prices continued to plunge and more families sank underwater – there were bidding wars for homes at the bottom end of the market.
Sellers in the middle (and the average US house now trades hands for $189,400), have faced a paucity of purchasers, boatloads of new bank-owned listings, and unrelenting pressure to reduce asking prices. A few nights ago CBC’s National showcased a middle-class hood in Cleveland, where cheap houses commanding $79,000 two years ago are now priced in the twenties. Unspared are homes in the $400,000 or $500,000 range – which would sell for double or more in Calgary or Halifax – which have lost half their value. As I’ve told you, there are postal codes in Phoenix where real estate is 70% cheaper than when Nickelback was still alive.
There are some lessons here this pathetic blog keeps try to shove down the throat of a hostile, disbelieving, horny nation.
- The market is outrageously weaker than Canadians are being told.
- Those who come here and claim a 15% price drop nationally will just roll us back a couple of years (so who cares?) have no idea how much this will change lives, and cities.
- The next interest rate moves will be up, not down. The new federal regs on mortgage amortizations, cash-backs, million-dollar exclusions, thinner HELOCs and tighter borrowing have not even started to impact.
- In short, fear of repeating the US experience now has government scrambling to chill sales and crash prices.
- Canadians have more debt than Americans ever did and live in houses twice as expensive. This means real estate here poses double the risk of markets there.
- This is not obvious to most people (like the poor, sweetums, deluded realtor below) because almost everybody wants things that go up, and will pay a premium to get them.
- The phenomenon of recency makes us believe rising markets will swell forever, and falling ones will plunge without end. This explains the idiot real estate bulls and equally idiotic financial doomers who make this blog the spectre of absurdity we so love.
Don’t be talked into real estate because ‘it always goes up.’ Or think you have to choose between a house and stocks. Be deathly afraid of debt. And never believe it’s different here. It’s not.
Now for our feature presentation, starring Mary Cleaver. Imagine her sitting on a designer couch in Miami in 2005. You’d hardly have to change a word. She’s just so damn fetching.
UPDATE: Mary Cleaver disabled her video on Saturday following the publication of this post. This came after offensive comments were posted on her YouTube account. If those comments were the work of visitors from this site, I am truly disappointed. I called Ms. Cleaver on Saturday night to apologize on behalf of the many people who come here, and who would never dream of being so childish, mindless or mean. — Garth
258 comments ↓
ohhhh I’m furrrrrrrrrrrrrrst!!!! YES@!!
Cut it out. — Garth
…is that picture really the future…..
dam.
I know a whole lot of soon to be Zombies… and thier special children…
nice pic Garth
Silver
Garth
It appears to me that she sincerely believes every word she said. Notice when she spoke of the stock market , said she was grateful she didn’t put all her eggs in one basket, without a trace of irony.
I hope this bubble bursts soon, so that at least some first time buyers can be saved from financial ruin.
From the top to the bottom I expect Canadian real estate to drop as much as 35%. Too much debt and subsequent foreclosures mean that the drop will be sharp and swift. Bob Rennie’s last success story was the yet to be built condo building on South East Marine Drive in Vancouver where 400 units sold to 118 purchasers. Unless these Elmer Fudds find a greater fool they will be walking away from their deposits and the building will not be built. Talk about losers!
I am with #3. I think that she genuinely believes in what she is saying. Doesn’t make it true. It just means she has drank the kool aid too.
I was DELETED on last post…because I speak the TRUTH !!!
PS WTF is that holding the baby……does it have a license and all its shots?
It looks like one of my usual clients.
garth,
here’s part one of the video you posted:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6HguGEZdQQ&feature=relmfu
she says: “don’t wait to buy real estate, buy real estate…and wait.”
yeah, wait for 20 years!
this lady is either incredibly stupid, or she’s an evil, manipulative genius.
RE lags the stock market
This woman is a prime example again of how lost we have have become. I use the term WE loosely since I’ve removed myself from Canada for some time.
She’s the problem and with all those like her will be guilty of pushing the punch without any accountability.
Make RE agents and agencies accountable for lack of performance, same with banks and government!
As for Mary Cleaver, she’s living in the 50’s with Wally and the Beaver! The difference is the ending was better! One car, 1200 sqft bungalow, income went farther than today and the dollar was worth something and most importantly a house was a HOME, not to be leveraged for the future of your family.
Bankers in a panic?
1. This survey’s result is released today:
“Overall customer satisfaction with the big five and midsize banks in Canada has declined this year, due largely to a decline in fee satisfaction, according to the 2012 Canadian Retail Banking Customer Satisfaction Study released Thursday by Westlake Village, Calif.-based J.D. Power and Associates
The decline in satisfaction directly impacted loyalty and advocacy metrics, both of which have dropped year over year. The advocacy metric, or the percentage of customers who say they “definitely will” recommend their bank to family and friends, declined by five percentage points, while customer loyalty, or the percentage of customers who say they “definitely will” reuse their bank in the future, declined by four percentage points, compared with 2011.
In addition to the impact of the decline in satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy rates have also been negatively affected by deterioration in customers’ perceptions of their bank’s brand image, which is most notably reflected in declines in perceptions of reliability and financial stability.”
2. This evening ( on cue?) one of my banks sends this email out. I have ZERO loyalty to any bank.
“You’re our reason to celebrate
DEAR …..
We’re dedicating July 26th to you — our valued client.
Enjoy refreshments with members of your local branch and community. Stop in to say “hi” and to learn about our time-limited offers, reserved just for you.
Plus, join us that day for the launch of the 2012 CIBC Pink Collection™, exclusive to CIBC branches. 100% of the net proceeds raised support the Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation.
To learn more, visit cibc.com/clientappreciation. “
WORTH A READ!
The Financial Crisis Was Foreseeable … Thousands of Years Ago
Posted on July 19, 2012 by WashingtonsBlog
Economists, Military Strategists and Others Warned Us … Long Ago
We’ve known for 4,000 years that debts need to be periodically written down, or the entire economy will collapse. And see this.
We’ve known for 2,500 years that prolonged war bankrupts an economy.
We’ve known for 1,900 years that rampant inequality destroys societies.
We’ve known for thousands of years that debasing currencies leads to economic collapse.
We’ve known for hundreds of years that the failure to punish financial fraud destroys economies, as it destroys all trust in the financial system.
We’ve known for hundreds of years that monopolies and the political influence which accompanies too much power in too few hands is dangerous for free markets.
We’ve known for centuries that companies will try to pawn their debts off on governments, and that it is a huge mistake for governments to allow corporate debt to be backstopped by government.
We’ve known for 200 years that allowing private banks to control credit creation eventually destroys the nation’s prosperity.
We’ve known for 200 years that a fiat money system – where the money supply is not pegged to anything real – is harmful in the long-run.
We’ve known since the 1930s Great Depression that separating depository banking from speculative investment banking is key to economic stability. See this, this, this and this.
We’ve known for 80 years that inflation is a hidden tax.
We’ve known since 1988 that quantitative easing doesn’t work to rescue an ailing economy.
We’ve known since 1993 that derivatives such as credit default swaps – if not reined in – could take down the economy. And see this.
We’ve known since 1998 that crony capitalism destroys even the strongest economies, and that economies that are capitalist in name only need major reforms to create accountability and competitive markets.
We’ve known since 2007 or earlier that lax oversight of hedge funds could blow up the economy.
And we knew before the 2008 financial crash and subsequent bailouts that:
The easy credit policy of the Fed and other central banks, the failure to regulate the shadow banking system, and “the use of gimmicks and palliatives” by central banks hurt the economy
Anything other than (1) letting asset prices fall to their true market value, (2) increasing savings rates, and (3) forcing companies to write off bad debts “will only make things worse”
Bailouts of big banks harm the economy
The Fed and other central banks were simply transferring risk from private banks to governments, which could lead to a sovereign debt crisis
Given the insane levels of debt, rampant inequality, currency debasement, failure to punish financial fraud, letting the private banks take over the system of credit creation, de-linking of fiat money from anything real, growth of the too big to fails, repeal of Glass-Steagall, refusal to rein in derivatives, sovereigns taking on banks’ debt, crony capitalism, endless war, and other shenanigans … our financial crisis was entirely foreseeable.
So, Mary hasn’t ever heard of Warren Buffett?
The B.C. 4.30 coupon maturing 2042 June-18 $122.21 yielding 3.15%, Ontario 3.50% coupon maturing 2043 June-2 $104.18 yielding 3.28%, Quebec 4.25% coupon maturing 2043 December-1 $115.50 yielding 3.44%, Canada 3.50% coupon maturing 2045 December-1 $129.91 yielding 2.22% are all at record lows. Even at intermediate government bonds like Quebec 3.50% maturing 2022 December-1 $106.25 yielding 2.80%,Ontario 3.15% maturing 2022 June-2 $104.53 yielding 2.62%, Canada 2.75% maturing 2022 June-1 $110.64 yielding 1.60%, Ontario residual maturing 2027 March-8 $60.32 yielding 3.49%, Hydro-Quebec residual maturing 2025 August-15 $64.80 yielding 3.35% are all at record lows. The Best 5 year GIC I could find is ICICI Bank is at 2.85% but most 5year GIC’S are the 2.25% to 2.50% range. The best 1 year GIC at 1.75%, 3 year GIC at 2.35%. I can’t see how interest rates can go up much from here over the next 5 to 10 years with massive triple debt loads,consumer, government, corporate. Garth, it will not happen especially bonds 10 to 30 year maturities. The bank of Canada’s bank rate will be at maximum 2.75% by 2015-2016.You read it here first not 4.50% to 5.0% most economists are forecasting.
goth turner?
If your waiting for the big crash? Keep waiting.
Fetching?
She’ll be fetching burgers and fries for minimum wage when this credit bubble deflates.
Interesting article on Toronto condos, and how perhaps the market might be softening
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1228289–real-estate-advice-toronto-condo-market-gives-renters-plenty-of-choice-and-better-prices
The smarmy and the smug condescension is just dripping from this woman. The body language of the little shoulder dip just makes my stomach curdle.
The best line..
“clearly the past is the best indicator of the future”
except for that concrete barrier erected across the road of your morning commute around the bend of that blind corner one foggy and raining morning.
Cognitave dissonance. recency bias, delusion, herd metality. Use some of your Heloc for medical help. A plastic surgeon to remove your head from your posterior would be a good start
I live in Toronto’s ground zero for condos. I pay too much rent, for a condo I could purchase in cash if I wanted, to a landlord who bought with only 5% down. Of course it’ll be my tax dollars that will be used to bail out the cmhc when everything collapses. I can count 21 construction cranes right now just looking out my window. It’s mass hysteria here, something I’ll tell the grand kids about some day as a warning about following the herd. The people involved in this bubble disgust me and I want to profit from their demise. Lets get some names out there of companies that may be good shorts. I’ll start with: hcg, mic, rch, and bre.
Regarding the Stats makers…
“You can’t speak truth to Power. Power already knows the truth.” – N. Chomsky
Check out the latest from The Toronto Star’s designated real estate pumper Susan Pigg!
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1229304–toronto-developer-touts-cottage-condos-within-go-transit-commute-of-city
My God, it sounds like an infomercial!
#15 Picasso,
The crash will happen..eventually (and I’m considered a pumper here on this blog).
Demographics don’t lie. Check out a Canada Population Pyramid and fast forward a few years. Domestic population growth will be ZERO in 15 years, shrinking 20-65 year old population, increased health spending and so on…
If you don’t want prices to go down, make sure your kids are fluent in Mandarin, Punjabi, Hindi, etc… as massive sustained immigration will be needed to prevent prices from going down.
I got the language issue covered. Do you?
So if Vancouver real estate drops by 20%, what will that mean for “The Real Housewives Of Vancouver” tv show?
I have to agree with mic about rates likely going down. Not that even zero rates could stop the inevitable, just look at the u.s.
I get where garth is coming from, and in many ways it’s the polar opposite of my views, yet both of our outlooks result in a massive RE correction.
Good luck real estate agents! You’ll be back to the used car lots and brothels you all came from soon enough!!
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12033627&PidKey=706346507
HEIM = Hot East Indian Money.
Surrey, BC.
The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.
–Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Alan Blinder (retired)
Hey Garth, I thought you were going to pick a major RE market each week and break it down…or was that my imagination?
Yes. — Garth
Iceland Has Hired An Ex-Cop To Hunt Down The Bankers That Wrecked Its Economy
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-has-hired-an-ex-cop-bounty-hunter-to-go-after-the-bankers-that-wrecked-its-economy-2012-7#ixzz21DgrBI3t
Some guys with 4000$ suit, are getting nervous, right mow!
Don t worry, It will shortly come here.
Mary sounds like a 20-something but looks like a 50 year old would dress. Is this what real estate lust does to people in Vancouver?
The next interest rate moves will be up, not dowN
———————————————————-
One day. But the fed funds rate will be near zero for another 10 years. No? Tell that to Japan. The BoC will not raise until the US does.
Wow, Mary Cleaver….the next leader of the BC Liberal party.
She is right, the value of the whole house rises not just the kitchen or washroom. I like her, why am I reading this blog when I have Mary. Finally someone who makes complete sense if you’re crunked and being pulled behind a transport truck on the 401 in shopping cart.
#167 Blue Monster (previous post),
You said, “Junius, I agree our banks are a big part of our problems but it’s because they are heavily regulated and not free market.”
This is just crazy. The Canadian banks remain largely intact because of better regulation. It was the lack of regulation and enforcement in the US, the UK and other countries that lead to the crash. How can you not know this? I find this incredible in light of all the evidence from Lehman Brothers through to the current LIBOR scandal.
Until the US reinstates Glass-Stegall and breaks up the big banks we will remain in danger.
Again, for the millionth time, we desire competitive markets and not free markets. Free markets become gamed, corrupted and monopolized. Competitive markets require referees and rules. This has always been the case. Period.
“Of course, as a couple of articles here this week have pointed out, you just can’t trust the market data we’re being given.”
There is another factor that understates the amount of listings on the market and was never as significant as it is today. FSBOs.
But the pundits keep telling everyone inventory is low.
Wow, she is brilliant.
She has obviously never heard of margin. Yah, I know generally you can’t leverage yourself as much as 5% down, but with options you can probably come close.
And I am really getting tired of people picking specific time frames that justify their point. If you bought lululemon 5 years ago you would be up 250%. If you bought it 3.25 years ago you would be up 1300%. Its all about timing. Bank stocks alone have done better than housing since 2009. There were 10% yields in Feb 2009 from what I recall.
Stocks are great investments if you know what you are getting into, or have a professional doing your investing for you.
Houses can be good investments as well. If you plan things right and know what you are getting into. Unfortunately as Garth points out, most people don’t realize what they are getting into.
Oh, I like post #13 on bond rates. Garth you should address this at some point.
I think Europe is a prime example of how quickly bond rates can change when people want to start getting paid for their risk. Seems funny when they spout about Spanish bond rates getting above 7%, when they really should be 20% since Spain can’t pay back the bonds.
15 years ago a 7% was the standard. Too many people with money willing to lend it for nothing.
Kilt.
Hahahaha that pic is sooo funny! Where on earth do you find these hilarious pictures day after day?
#22 TRT,
You said, ” as massive sustained immigration will be needed to prevent prices from going down.”
Sigh. Still selling the snake oil are we? How people who come to Canada from poor countries arrive here and magically push up Real Estate Prices.
Did you ever answer my question from a few days ago? Why aren’t prices higher in Mumbai, Dhaka, Cairo or Tehran? Why aren’t they higher in LA than Vancouver?
Over here in Australia, the Real Estate industry calculate house price movements from auction results. The reporting of auction results by realtors is voluntary. Auctions held by smaller Agencies whereby no body shows or the property fails to sell are generally not reported as it makes the realtor look stupid because he can’t sell a house.
So if there are 1000 auctions and only 500 are reported of which 250 sell (generally very big realtor agencies report both sold and not sold auctions) the clearance rate is 50% which is reported to the media.
The other 500 not reported (generally by the smaller agencies) have not been sold making the true clearance rate only 25%. This is not reported in the media.
It is this methodology of cherry picking favourable sales data devised by the realtors that makes it possible to calculate that house prices only go up.
I have a friend right now that is going to use a secured LOC to invest in a condo in B.C. Since they have done “well” over the past 10 years on real estate, they think that it will always be that way. This is not going to end well.
“Originally Posted by Heps
Rent for $12,000+a year or pay $12,000 a year into paying down a mortgage. Simple choice. Even if your home drops $10,000 in value every year (which it wont) youre still ahead of renting.”
http://www.306motorclub.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44362&page=4
A neat discussion I encountered in relation to home ownership in a Saskatchewan based forum. They really are whacked in Sask. Check this thread out and sign up to stir the sheep.
Cash is KING!
Some great Canadian Housing Bubble stats/analysis at Pacifica Partners:
http://pacificapartners.ca/blog/2012/07/18/canadian-real-estate-bubble-chart-book/
Check out the “Housing Bubble Sentiment Indicator” and the “Canadian home prices over discounted rent valuation”.
(posted by Rob Carrick from the G&M on Facebook)
#37Junius
FYI
Prices of 2/3 bedroom apt in Gurgoan [Near New Delhi-India] increased from 30,000C$ [2001] to 200,000C$[2011].
Great video find Garth!
A terrific example of the recency effect in full force. Homes will continue to rise because they have in the past. No examination of the underlying reasons or any other factors that might be relevant (such as demographics).
Of course, the real shocker is yet to come when wages flatten and the promise of ever rising standards of living becomes an even bigger lie than perpetual rises in house prices.
Almost everything Mary Cleaver said was correct–given the right spin. And of course, at some point she’ll be wrong. All assets have their boom and bust cycles. And typically, people with a vested interest in one asset class tend to cherry pick the facts to make their biased case sound like the universal, for-all-time truth.
The one thing she said that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny however is her claim that people who sold their homes recently made money. Well, because they have to live somewhere, this is only true if they now rent, or took advantage of price arbitrage by moving to some place where housing is much cheaper, say, Cleveland. Because if someone in Toronto sold their home and bought another home in Toronto, they are no further ahead.
While it’s true that they may have been able to move up to a larger home (thanks largely to lax credit standards and low rates), it’s all relative. If they sold their old Toronto home at an inflated price, they also bought their new Toronto home at a roughly equally inflated price.
The RE industry likes you to believe that if your home goes up in price you are wealthier. But if everyone’s home went up in value by about the same amount, by that measure are any of use really wealthier?
Also, those who moved up to a larger home may be more vulnerable when prices rebalance, due to a likely larger mortgage, and a home that is less liquid than those in lower price ranges.
I know of people who got severely burned when they leveraged up to the hilt to buy houses at inflated prices back in the late ’80s. When they were forced to sell into a down market they literally lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Those now buying inflated homes with very large mortgages risk the same outcome. And now, not only do they have the market and the economy to contend with. But you also have F.
Dear Mary (Beaver) Cleaver,
Two comments you made were interesting….”nobody knows the future of Real Estate prices in Vancouver.”
No shit toots, nobody KNOWS the value of any RE, OR stock in the future either.
Buying stocks, unlike buying RE the investor (who wants to make money) usually waits for a break in the market, when stocks are “on sale” then makes his purchase. That said, few of us have ever ‘timed’ a market bottom exactly, but we ARE smart enough not to buy a stock when the market is close to setting a new high. Not so with RE.
Secondly, you state, “I know of nobody that made as much money stocks, as they did when selling their home. (my paraphrase here)
Mary you ignorant math deprived slut, most people can be leveraged 9.5/1 8.0/1 even 2/1 when they’re in RE. In a rising market, that works for the owner / seller. Not so when prices are stagnant, or might fall, then the opposite is true.
First, I speak only of the US stock market. Our laws for “leverage” might allow a qualified buyer to buy on margin, and the max margin is 50% or 2/1. That means if a stock price is 100 you need to put down $50 for each share. IF that price goes down tomorrow from 100 to say 95 (5% loss) you may get a margin call to put up more money to maintain your 2/1 leverage. I don’t use leverage. I don’t give a dam if my holdings go down tomorrow, as they did just today.
A RE buyer who bought with 5% down is 9.5 to 1 (95%) levered. Should prices move downward AT ALL…and he had to move as they were transferred I see 2 choices.
Sell at the market, and make up the difference, quit the job, and love the house. In this economy who needs that?
MUCH MORE danger buying now than practically any other time in Canada. RE is stretched way too thin. The stats do not show a good ending. Think stocks in Oct 2007 for RE.
Come back and tell how much you made in RE by Oct 2008.
Here in the US prices are much better, and interest rates are low for a fixed term. LOTS of pain for prices to get there….Do YOU like pain Mary? ARE you serving the interests of clients with this story?
RE agents, less honest than a talk show host….and that is making a sad commentary.
Here we go with another comment section on the youtube video. Already one reference on there to a penis. Garth you are probably making these women cry.
My wife and I took advance of all the benefits in our mortgage and paid it off in 18 years two years ago despite increasing it to complete renovations to our home. We are now retired, but had to start over in our mid forties. My wife was a mortgage underwriter and I owned my own real estate brokerage. We suffered through a horrible recession in the 90’s, but still managed to double up our payments and take advantage of early renewals so we could be mortgage and debt free when we retire.
What about GOD in all this Garth? You’re a good wholesome GOD fearing conservative white male. Tell us, where is GOD in all this?
That girl in the video is hilarious! She claims she’s never met anyone whose made more money in the stock market than real estate. She must know a whopping 10 people and I bet they’re all realtors lol. I see tupperware parties in her future.
A request to the blogdogs to focus further on the lack of reliable real estate figures in Canada. Garth is drawing increasing attention here to something extremely seasick. Blatant manipulation of media best characterises totalitarian states, so guys……so why so little outrage ….? What are you thinking of Canada? How about a set of figures that doesn’t come directly from vested interests. Oh yes… I know you own a house too but come on, don’t you want to be ‘world class’? When the real estate industry treats the population like kindergarten kids rather than grown ups, why are you not INSULTED?
Been watching the market for 2 years now and G is a sadly rare font of accuracy and truth with regard to what we see out there. Just take one single instance where realtors regularly remove and re-list properties with a fudgy concealed reduction in price, and we see a good number of these which have been on the market for 2 entire seasons; at least as far back as our records go! And so the revised listing now sports an entirely new (of course, reduced) ‘Original Price’ and this is the figure finally used to compile stats about Sale prices in relation to Asking. Some of these ‘Original Prices’ can conceal drops of literally millions. So what exactly is the point of a published percentage based on such a rigged premise? Oh yes, of course – it helps create and sustain the impression, we are still in a ‘balanced’ market. Tell you what, the market is already toppling. I know because I live in a street with a rash of for sale signs…and I know who’s selling for what…but that’s not what I see relfected in the real estate board figures.
Seriously Canada, you deserve better than this self-serving hogwash.
Does anyone really think that Mary is a smart person who should be telling people what to do with their money? She could have an MBA from Stanford or her grade 10 from Vancouver Tech. This is the amazing thing about sales; if you’re selling it then you’re an expert. She’s just a squirrel trying to get a nut.
Case and point…
never ever ever confuse luck with brains when you have made a succesfuly investment. It’s the best way to magnify losses down the road!!
Unique dining room, you have to move table in order to sit on chair, not other way around…
#42 T.O. Bubble Boy
“Check out the “Housing Bubble Sentiment Indicator” and the “Canadian home prices over discounted rent valuation.”
Renters have sacrificed living in smaller units in exchange for affordable rent prices. This observation is widely missed by many analysts. The reason why property prices are so high relative to rents (more so condos based on price per sq.ft.) is due to buyers intentions to cover record low mortgage payments, which has debased net rent income over many years.
For Toronto condo owners: maybe it’s better to pay $299k to live in Rochester and take a boat to work accross lake Ontario every day? You might like this more than your half-million-dollar 2 bedroom glass shoebox that will be assessed $10 million for a new skin in a few years…
http://www.zoocasa.com/en/real_estate/1817538-12-New-Tudor-Road-Town-of-Pittsford-New
Robert Smith after a buffet?
She has obviously never heard of margin. Yah, I know generally you can’t leverage yourself as much as 5% down, but with options you can probably come close.
Go to Royal Bank and get yourself one of those project Mastercard/LOC things they’re flogging for people to pay their weddings with. Max $40,000. 0% for 6 months, ~7% after (but you can pay it off at 6 and get $40k for six months for free!)
Write a cheque on the card for $40k, deposit into a broker’s account. You can then trade up to $133k of margin eligible securities with no money down. Go ahead, blow yourself up — you should be able to get $4,090 in monthly distributions from ZHY, minus $1,800 in interest on the $93k, net $2,200 in six months, no cash required.*
“You don’t need money to trade stocks. You just need credit.” — Jesse Livermore
* Not investment advice
I read an article about Brad Lamb’s point of view on the housing bubble. This is what he said.
“People think housing is not affordable because they can’t afford it but it doesn’t mean it’s unaffordable.”
Duh…
This video might sound foolish, but let’s look at the content. In the last 5 years, you would have made a killing owning real estate vs stocks. The next 5? Try telling people to throw money into a roller coaster stock market vs RE – what do you think they will chose for the next 5 years? RE has 20X leverage and you can borrow against to do whatever. Try telling people to leverage in the stock market even 2X, they will have a heart attack.
Before we make fun of her, she is telling the truth about the last five years. The next 5, who knows. Garth has a point for grabbing bank prefs, can’t say I agree with REITs, most of them have marked up NAV’s on BS valuations, so those will drop huge at some point if Garth is actually right about RE.
The math is easy, when renting costs more then buying, stick to renting and building a stockpile of cash invested in divs, prefs, etc. When renting is more expensive then owning, do the opposite.
Immigration doesn’t matter, Canada has no clue about it’s own internal value. No one with large sums of cash is looking to come here and live in the freezing tundra for 10 months a year. Ya the sun is out now, wait till the cool breeze comes in 5 weeks and along with cooling RE prices.
Muskoka condo’s – are you kidding me? Bugs and 3 hour traffic and can be used for 1 month a year. Even with a direct train ride, I would rather take a vaca down south on the cheap.
I sincerely hope that Mary has all her wealth tied up in housing.
I hope Mary’s video goes viral next year and appears on TV every day until the next property bubble.
“•Canadians have more debt than Americans ever did ”
Ya, but Mary ain’t no Miss South Carolina
DELETED
Garth,
When are the amazons going to be done with the post on preferreds?
–
“Be deathly afraid of debt.” — Goes with — #150 Bill Gable on 07.20.12 at 6:45 pm — “This is just starting.” — Good first-hand account of where we are going. Sorry for your friend.
#10 TurnerNation — “Bankers in a panic?”
— and —
#11 Onemorething — “We’ve known for 4,000 years that debts need to be periodically written down, or the entire economy will collapse. And see this.
“We’ve known for 2,500 years that prolonged war bankrupts an economy.”
All coming together for the cycle change. Good posts!
*
Brzezinski US war on Iran will devastate the economy (as if it’s not already in slo-mo);
Quit while the going’s good; Hourly Rate The banks can bail us out! Wages One of the main problems with unions; ChinaInfiltrating the west; Cdn. Teachers Pension Fund Buying in UK; Titanic Banks hit Libor iceberg; Obomba’s math isn’t great, but Large new defense bill. If Obomba vetoes it, it will pit him vs. the military. Further, it looks as if he has become a law unto himself; 3:48 clip US in invisible depression; NKorea Major economic changes on the horizon? Borrowing more to pay less? Argentina Protectionism?
Cdn. Friday links, plus a few more; Valencia, Spain seeks bailout; Richard Russell Preparing for hard times; Dibor vs. Libor Ireland; Spaghetti Junction a.k.a. EZone; Please buy our junk Spanish bonds; Finally! Renters rule; Quit Smoking No work to pay for them; The Weather Channel Someone watches it; Metal Detectors come in very handy in the most obscure places.
*
2:28 clip Glacier tsunami. Good view from being in the boat when the wave hits; Girly Men Pic of a tri-breasted hooker in Total Recall; GMO Labeling See who supports it; Lady holds off Smart Meter goons; Brown Dwarf Closer than is known? Colo. shootings Different POV; Panama vs. Costa Rica Sinkhole duel. Florida should be in there as well; Underground Water in Africa Libya also has their own water resources from underground.
Garth, she convinced me. She is prettier than you.
When real-estate jumps 20% a year for a few years, I ain’t going to cry a river for all those who “suffer” when it goes down 15%. Yes, Garth had a post on this a few weeks ago – people who read this pathetic blog want revenge! As far as I’m concerned, the savers have been priced out of the market by the crazy folks participating in bidding wars. No one talks about their pain… so it’s time for savers to enjoy their savings!
Hey Garth,
You messages could be summarized by telling your readers to read “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” — so they know the difference between an asset and a liability.
Your biggest concern has been on debt… but I’m sure there are a lot of people who buy real estate with cash or can pay off the mortgage, if they so choose, within 5 years. Any stats on this?
I would like to know how inflation maybe even hyper inflation is going to play out? The US has been running the presses for the QEs like crazy. Real estate has historically been a great hedge against inflation. Any thoughts?
An old gfriend & her hubby (DINKS) from Ottawa called 7 pm Monday eve. They were in Hfx. My younger sis from Mtl. was visiting at the time & I was just starting to get supper ready. Took them over an hour to find our place – no GPS. They bought a home in Kelowna in ’94 (to rent) & sold last year. They bought an older home in Ottawa back in the early 70’s – 15 min. bus ride from downtown & made a killing on it a few yrs ago. Also owned a condo (rental) next to Tunney’s Pasture which they sold yrs ago. She & I used to ride our bikes there when we lived together. They also have a beautiful cottage in the Gatineaus on a lake. I spent many wonderful weekends there. My sis loved her & thought her hubby had absolutely no personality. So true. She was the go getter.
Then today I checked my voice mail. An old high school gfriend called me yesterday. We’ve seen each other off & on over the years since I moved from Mtl in ’76. Her Mom was my 2nd Mom growing up. Spoke to her DH. They have done extremely well financially & are grandparents. Both g’friendsare WW2 refugees. Gita’s voice msg to me was that she had seen 2 friends of ours (2 sisters) from high school. I was closer to them than Gita & attended one of their weddings. These sisters were gorgeous & spoke 4 languages fluently. My eldest bro was gaga over one of them. Pls excuse my nostalgia. I’ll be 65 this fall.
DH is on vac this week – ripping out 30 yr. carpet in bedrooms, laying plywood in prep for hardwood. We’ll then be carpet free!!!!!
Dear Garth,
Thank you for your insightful messages. I wish your blog, and the internet existed when I (and hubby,no kids then, three now) bought our first house in Hamilton in 1989.
Here is an excerpt from something I said to my husband recently (newly relocated from Brantford to Ottawa)..
“You asked me this several times last night. I thought you were making fun of my ‘low-risk’ tolerance. I think you are my ‘irritant’…the one who does not have the answer, but makes someone else figure it out.
Perhaps, a big mistake, is to assume someone understands what they say, or knows why they say, what they say.
Anyhow, I am starting to feel lead down a path that I don’t want to go, but in reality is maybe the best one. House buying scares me.
Maybe the best bet, for now, is to make this rental home more comfortable.
Patience is a virtue I have yet to learn.”
ohhhh I’m furrrrrrrrrrrrrrst!!!! YES@!!
Cut it out. — Garth
=================
To solve the first problem why don’t you just post a first comment yourself.
I guess idiots will just post second messages
What is is your Risk Tolerance?
That was the title of my most recent post, but I know it got missed.
Thanks anyway, love your message!
K.
A 100% gain is completely erased by a 50% drop. The math is easy.
Let’s start with a house that was $200,000. A 100% increase takes it up $200,000 to $400,000.
A decline of 50% would drop the $400,000 price down $200,000 to $200,000 where it started.
For a market that has increased by 100% over the past decade, a 15% drop now is basically twice as much as an increase of 15% from the price one decade ago. It makes 15% significant when the market reverses.
hope you don’t mean the band ! Nickelback !
lol. the comments and like/dislike function have been disabled on the video above. i wonder if the turnerites all headed over with some nasty comments…
Canadian banks don’t need the extent of regulation that US banks need because they have a built-in control through their leaders (execs) and that is their conservativeness, a natural Canadian quality(?). When the world economy sours, they look exceptionally good and when times are good they just look good, not exceptional. This Canadian trait is in the industrial and commercial areas of the country’s business and is the reason that Canada will always be back in the pack. This is not necessarily a bad thing when you consider the US as probably the biggest risk-taking country ever and when it succeeds and times are good, they are on an extreme high but when the opposite occurs they wallow in a terrible low like today. Successful risk-taking results in great development in many areas so we are fortunate in the world to have a country willing to create, innovate and invent like our “cousins” do but there are areas such as financial, where their greed brings down the house.
Well, in Miami she’s be ten shades darker tanned leather, far more wrinkled, look twenty years older and not be quite as fetching…. (ducking)
RE: The photo…. oh the lengths we will go to when we can’t control our weight…
#37 Junius,
First, you got to get out more and have some fun… Granville was abuzz and Cordova/Cambie area is crazy busy..
Step away from the LSAT type logic…you can’t apply it to life..
Oh, Mumbai is more expensive than Vancouver. Ever been to Downtown Mumbai?? Didn’t think so. And its 13 times larger.
Poor immigrants coming here… i don’t mean to offend you but you are one Clueless dude… you come across as having zero real life experience and base your life like you’re still in school. Are you a Partner yet? ;)
#43 Kam,
Junius is oblivious. Been to Gurgoan. They have one of the best hospitals in the world there. Within a day, they did all the tests, medical imaging, surgery required to alleviate a medical issue.
I guess Junius should be taken to the plains of Punjab…There he can calculate that the return on investment of a purchased acre of farmland. It won’t make sense to him…
Don’t delete this one Garth…
Junius, do you have a girlfriend??
Garth,
Why are you putting such a flipping airhead on your blog ? I read your blog early in the morning and I definitely don’t want to start my day with THAT !!
Comparing financial investments with real estate is the most assinine thing I have ever seen. This twit is looking at purchase price vs selling price and counting the difference as profit. What the ?%$#!
Why doesn’t she compare “management fees” for investments vs those for maintaining a home ? Guaranteed she would change her mind, after having to do the math on her fingers and getting her brain activated (if she has one). And what about liquidity ? It is a royal pain in the patoot to change your home (I know because I am doing this right now and believe me, if this new place wasn’t my dream, I wouldn’t be doing it).
Again I reiterate, your home and your financial investments are two completely different things. If your home is your only financial investment then quite obviously you cannot afford a home (well duh). A home is a purchase .. albeit a purchase that retains much more value than say … a car or a purse, AND a purchase that provides you with something you need .. shelter (as opposed to that umpteenth pair of shoes which you don’t need). And of course if you are lucky and happen to be selling at the right time in history, you may make money but don’t count on it because the timing may not be right.
So get that twit out of our homes for heaven’s sake. Who would take her as an agent anyway ?! She can barely pronounce the big words for heaven’s sake ! What is she .. all of fifteen ? Is she actually selling real estate in Vancouver .. holy smokes what is this world coming to ?
Thanks for waking me up Garth, albeit in the wrong way.
HHHW
A friend of mine just bought a 2 brdm bungalow at Vaughn and Oakwood for $450K. Basement rental to help with the mortgage – anyone want a basement for $900/month? No? Wants to “see their $ go to something rather than nothing.” Sigh. Other neighbours still not sold yet. On the brighter side, I’m a month away from paying off the HELOC, mortgage is already done. Oh, and I may have another RE client who needs a website done – I’m thinking do it quick while they can still pay me. Will those clients be around in a year? This RE catastrophe will affect our lives in many unexpected ways. For anyone who thinks they know what’s coming – think again.
@ #55 Canadian Watchdog
Renters have sacrificed living in smaller units in exchange for affordable rent prices. This observation is widely missed by many analysts. The reason why property prices are so high relative to rents (more so condos based on price per sq.ft.) is due to buyers intentions to cover record low mortgage payments,
which has debased net rent income over many years.
So, you’re basically saying that low interest rates have made houses expensive and rents cheap? Isn’t that in itself an indication of a bubble?
Another Saturday, another personal finance article where a “top 1%” couple have more than 100% of their net worth tied up in an overpriced house:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/big-spenders-need-not-drop-savings-ball/article4431530/
Gotta love the $1880/month in transportation costs!
“while market values have tumbled most notably in BC. Richmond, Vancouver” … use of the word ‘tumbled’ for Vancouver is a bit much, Garth. We’ve followed the market here on a more or less daily basis as we wish to buy a condo for a handicapped child. Coming down several percentage points does not a ‘tumble’ make. Yes, I know its a ‘subjective’ measure, but even a 20-30% decline still renders Vancouver as unfordable.
Garth,
You seem to play down the numbers in your blog’ submission (i.e.,. House prices doubled and then “only” decreased by 32%.
Some people quickly reading that will assume, “oh, 100% increase then 32% decrease…therefore, approx 70% increase.
Just to state the obvious, the 100% increase is off a smaller base and the 32% decrease is off a larger base. In the event that prices double then decrease 50%, prices will be where they started.
In the numbers you provided, owners will have experienced an approx 35% increase over 12 years. That’s about 2.5% compounded annually, before taking into account property taxes, maintenance, and interest cost. So a real return of probably nothing, before counting these very important costs.
Let me preempt your comment to go get a gf. I’m off to go play Patti-cake with her right right now.
F
Ps. Enjoy reading your blog and appreciate your efforts to keep it active by posting daily submissions.
Foreclosures may be back on the upswing
In the second quarter, more homes entered foreclosure than in the same period in 2011 — the first increase since 2009. The $25 billion mortgage settlement earlier this year means banks are processing more foreclosures, which could hurt home prices.
By Melinda Fulmer of MSN Real Estate
Delinquent borrowers take heed: The number of homes entering foreclosure has picked up after last year’s slowdown, when banks were forced to overhaul their foreclosure practices.
Foreclosure-data firm RealtyTrac said 311,010 properties started the foreclosure process in the second quarter, a 9% increase from the previous quarter and a 6% increase from the second quarter of 2011 — the first year-over-year jump since the fourth quarter of 2009. Moreover, the trend was fairly widespread, with 31 states posting year-to-year increases.
Since the $25 billion mortgage settlement earlier this year, “Lenders and servicers are slowly but surely catching up with the backlog of delinquent loans that under normal circumstances would have started the foreclosure last year,” RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore said in a statement.
More…
That was an excellent “Mary C.” video. Very valuable information.
What comes across immediately is the sharp, over-pronounced wording and subcommunication. This an arrogant, hidden and narcissistic woman…who has become a victim of her society ( and most certainly her family).
She’s talking “eggs” and “baskets”, but wasn’t able to connect to an information source+community that would show her she actually doesn’t have eggs or a basket. She’s alone, surrounded by smoke and mirrors….comparing smoke to mirrors.
Guys should take note that this “professional” reading her smug grade 8 level “presentation” will collapse like a house of casino playing cards when the wolves take all her chips ( or eggs or whatever).
Maybe she’ll get to keep the basket. In any case ( basket or otherwise), it’s important to remember that she was used, and her high level of arrogance and ignorance comes from isolation. She’s not offering value, so she’s disconnected from the human community.
Nobody deserves to be disconnected from the human community. It takes discipline to not want her to be punished for her hubris. The best takeaway is just to understand.
Given the right conditions, this could happen to almost any woman.
Then this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fPAx5MEviA&feature=related
Interesting video. Mary Cleaver comes across as a very young, naive and of all places, wet behind the ears. Perhaps being young will be her salvation, as far as being able to recuperate if her financial health takes a beating.
Hurly wrote:
“I would like to know how inflation maybe even hyper inflation is going to play out? The US has been running the presses for the QEs like crazy. Real estate has historically been a great hedge against inflation. Any thoughts?”
——–
What’s the ethical angle here? This is a sincere question. And the poster considers “experts” and “authorities” as having a good answer due to “experience” and “smarts” and “know-how”.
Perhaps there is a case to be made for “running game”, when the foundation of ignorance is irresponsibility.
Ignorance means to “not know”….and that includes denial. Denial is a defence towards “not knowing” something that could threaten survival.
Canadian Real Estate Bubble is bursting now.
Most of commentators on this blog agree with this, but they do not see much bigger Bubble going to burst soon.
This huge Bubble is Canada itself.
Canada is not sustainable as a “state” and will be disappear as former Soviet Union.
There are a lot of structure similarities between Canada and passed away USSR.
Why Canadians do not recognize it?
Because they are inside of this Bubble, named “Canada”’ and can not see the coming collapse of Canada. You have to look on Canada from “outside”, at least in your mind – not everyone has ability for mental experiment in his/her mind. Canadian education is doing all efforts to keep Canadians kids in ignorance and inability to think independently, exactly as in Soviet Union.
Reading is taking up too much of my time these days, and if you don’t start to do these living room chats Garth, I may start to tune in to Mary Cleaver. Perhaps you can have a dash cam and do the show from the hummer?
25 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 07.19.12 at 9:29 pm
.
So how did Singapore come to be a secrecy jurisdiction
In the early years from 1968 to 1985, we had the field all to ourselves in the regin. We attracted international financial institutions by abolishing witholding tax on interest income earned by non-resident depositors. All Asian dollar deposits were exempted from statutory liquidity and reserve requirements. By the 1990s, Singapore had become one of the larger financial centres of the world . . . .
Singapore’s financial centre was considered over-regulated compared to Hong Kong’s. Critics wrote: “in Hong Kong, what is not expressly forbidden is permitted; in Singapore, what is not expressly permitted is forbidden. . . . Only after the MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) had demonstrated the strength of its system to weather the financial crisis of 1987 and 1997-98 did I feel confident enough to move closer to a position where what is not expressly forbidden is permitted.”
http://taxjustice.blogspot.ca/2008/12/singapore-asias-dirty-casino.html
=
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew
Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s Prime Minister from 1959 to 1990, made some telling remarks in a memoir
#81 TRT,
A hot wife. Moron.
#8…..she’s just incredibly stupid….what part of she’s a realtor did you miss?
Must Watch:
Dr. Michael J. Burry at UCLA Economics Commencement 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CLhqjOzoyE&feature=player_embedded
#79, 80 TRT,
Your ad hominem attacks do nothing to support your overall logic. Your constant line is that immigration and adding people will drive up prices. By that logic Mumbai should be 13 times more expensive than Toronto and Mexico the most expensive city in the world. However we know that a few of the worlds most expensive places are smaller locations such as Monaco and Geneva.
The point is that you are wrong to the degree you attribute prices to population. They are a factor in demand but not to the extent you attribute them.
BTW – I run a very successful company that does business on a global level including India.
#76 cynically
whoa, dude!!!!!!
Is RIM dead?
Hey Mathman, you forgot to account for the fact that most properties are leveraged between 80-95% thus the ROI is in function of the amount invested (down payment) not the value of the property.
Also, you need to account for the fact that someone that bought 12 years ago, has mortgage payments smaller than most of today’s rents (if any at all) thus there is a significant monthly saving that can be invested in non RE assets if desired.
There’s also an equity paydown which at this point is accelerating and on the other side there are maintenance costs which I usually peg at around 1% per year.
So the math is way more complicated than the simple +100% -50% = 0% and is very dependent on someone’s personal situation.
On the other hand, yes, today’s prices seem ridiculous and I personally wouldn’t buy, as a first time buyer.
What will a basement apartment in the GTA be worth when renters can rent a shiny new downtown condo for about the same money each month?
Desperate landlords renting to financially unstable tenants. As homeowners who rent their basements get squeezed and stiffed on monthly rents, well… you know the rest.
Garth. Rates are going up.?
Dude have looked at the bond market lately? Do you think germany will bail out the pigs. Ba hahahah on that.
Last month record number of offsure money coming here Enough safe haven. Europe has bonds that you got to pay to own.
Its coming here. And prime rate well its goiong to the basment next year.
Just watch gartho. Grasshopper
She reminds me of the Internet investors of the late nineties commenting on their winning trades with all the confidence that the money they made could be duplicated at will year after year.
Would love to interview her this time next year see how things work out for her.
Garth said: So, an asset can rise 100%, then correct by only a third, and still cause mayhem.
That’s odd. If gasoline and diesel fuel dropped significantly in price, it would result in consumers spending less on it and thus having more disposable income to spend elsewhere. That would be a boost for the economy. Why should housing be different? If I buy a house for 200 grand that some years ago would have sold for 300 grand, wouldn’t that mean my mortgage payments are a third lower so I have more money to spend elsewhere which would boost the economy more?
If real estate values were accounted for in the same way as the official CPI ….in other words ‘voilitile’ and unworthy of capture…..the CDN wealth stats published recently would have really been a downer eh?
Why is the volitile real estate market counted as ‘GDP’ worthy when in fact it is the most volitile unit in the marketplace……political expediancey maybe?
Can you see how much BS is being pumped out by the civil service to justify themselves?
#8mary cleaver (yikes) on 07.20.12 at 9:35 pm
Mind control alert! That’s an evil, facile analysis. Totally ignores the fact of most condos being poorly built, ticking special assessment time bombs. Yearly tax and condo fee hikes.
A 20-something taking on $350,000-500,000 of debt while working a pink/white collar throw-away job.
What good is a cost centre, like a “project manager” or “business analyst” when the rainmakers are in a drought. Throw-away jobs.
Most people move within five years’ time. Who wants a 550 sq foot condo.
THERE IS NO “MARKET” to get into!! Total bunk. Oh how did our forefathers cope, living in sod and timber framed houses. Was this a “market”, too?
There is no market. Only 20 and 30-somethings living beyond their means. Six of my co workers (25-35 yrs old) “got into” BMWs, the past year. 320, 328i, 335, used M3. There’s $800/mo in insurance, gas, parking and repairs/maint. down the drain. Freedom 85? Oh, this year the company froze raises and bonuses.
Total mind control in that video: “getting into the market”. There is no market! There is only sober, circumspect personal wealth management and money management. But who balances their checkbook each month. That’s for old fuddy duddies. Just make the minumum payments on your monthly nut.
Buyers on the margin, minimums only. But maxed out.
Track 6ers delight.
#firstworldproblems.
I’m obsessed with First World Problems.
Getting into the “hot summer market”.
Bring “priced out forever”.
How to get my whites their whitest?
I deserve it!
Making the minimums on my monthly nut.
(Monthly nuts are for squirrels! Mmmm, squirrels.)
#69 Live within your means
What was that all about?
#60 thinker on 07.21.12 at 12:15 am…
“The math is easy, when renting costs more then buying, stick to renting and building a stockpile of cash invested in divs, prefs, etc. When renting is more expensive then owning, do the opposite.”
You need to think that one out, methinks.
But I do agree with your last paragraph!
Security is owning your home. . . but not in a bubble.
Ask any real estate agent and they will tell you security is owning your own home!!.
Ask America’s Generation X and they are likely to tell you something very different.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) for 2010 has reported what could be unprecedented levels of wealth destruction in the three short years between 2007 and 2010.
Median Family net worth across all age groups has fallen from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 USD in 2010, a fall of 38.8 per cent.
But it was families headed up by a person between the age of 35-44 that suffered the most destruction in household wealth. This group has seen median family net worth fall 54.4 per cent from $92,400 to $42,100 USD.
What did this cohort do so wrong?
As they started families, Generation X leveraged up into the housing market, towards or at the top of the bubble. When the bubble burst, they were left with mortgages on homes worth more than they paid for them.
Food for thought.
http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2012/06/security-is-owning-but-not-in-a-bubble/
It’s neck and neck in the debt race, Australia V Canada
Nice graph
http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2012/06/westpac-boss-australians-rejecting-high-levels-of-debt/
I’ve invested a lot of time in studying and thinking for myself about what’s going on in the world in the last few years, but had never turned my attention to Canada until 2012. This year turned around and solidified my understanding more than ever…and Canada was the model that drove that. Why? Nobody ( and I mean nobody) in the general population outside of Canada knows what’s going on.
And Canadians don’t even know. And from the comments on this blog, you can see that probably 80% don’t want to know…and are simply “stuck” on housing. The housing “market” is just a huge symptom.
The problem is layed out specifically even in the comments of this weekend. People filter them. Denial is a defence all of us use in varying degrees. That’s natural.
I’m sure many have seen the below short Garth Turner interview with the Globe and Mail financial guy. The Globe and Mail person is iconically Canadian.
The interview was 2.5 years ago and would not be the same today, but look at some of the myopic denial going on.
Globe and Mail dude says ( paraphrase)….”Yeah you know in the early 1990’s housing wasn’t doing well….10 years later cha-ching cha-ching”.
This guy is a financial columnist and he didn’t get that Toronto’s housing market was artificially super-inflated by a derivatives fraud scheme put into full swing in 2002? Huh?
How can he “not know” that? The answer is denial, training and an identity crisis. He’s “Canadian”.
Turner makes good points of course, but neither get out of the myopic frame. Even today…with the information much more out in the open, and 30 months of events and evolution….the myopia continues. Not as bad certainly, but still under water. It’s going to have to change…for very obvious reasons.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOcIaWBrnDg&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Do you ever wonder if cave women had cave envy?
Granite was all the rage back then too. No stainless to lust after yet though, but some caves were bigger than others. And at night, there was no TV for the cave men to lose themselves in. I can just imagine the constant nagging. “ugh ugh more fur. ugh ugh more meat. ugh ugh bigger cave.” If they were lucky enough to find some naturally fermenting berries, great. But otherwise they had no escape from it night after night. Oh the horror.
And the original CHCW (cave horny cave woman) had no HGTV to get her cave juices flowing either. Just an old stone copy of Better Caves and Gardens, and maybe a subscription to Cavemopolitan.
There was probably even some knowledgeable bearded cave man cautioning everyone to diversify. “Spread your wealth among Preferred Berries, Nuts, Eggs, high quality MEATS, and a variety of furs” he’d say. And “Don’t put more than 20% of your net worth in your cave.” But I’d doubt very few listened then either. They were just trying to survive…
Some things never change.
#106 Doug in London,
You are forgetting that nearly 70% of the population owns a home and that 70% certainly represents more than 90% of the total income earned in the economy. If those people lose the value on this asset the national economy takes a hit.
You also need to consider that owners who hold mortgages (the majority) are already locked into their payments so a drop in prices only effects their equity position.
The number of people who would benefit from a drop in prices is statistically small.
#33 Junius on 07.20.12 at 10:41 pm
#167 Blue Monster (previous post),
You said, “Junius, I agree our banks are a big part of our problems but it’s because they are heavily regulated and not free market.”
This is just crazy. The Canadian banks remain largely intact because of better regulation. It was the lack of regulation and enforcement in the US, the UK and other countries that lead to the crash. How can you not know this? I find this incredible in light of all the evidence from Lehman Brothers through to the current LIBOR scandal.
Until the US reinstates Glass-Stegall and breaks up the big banks we will remain in danger.
Again, for the millionth time, we desire competitive markets and not free markets. Free markets become gamed, corrupted and monopolized. Competitive markets require referees and rules. This has always been the case. Period.
—–
Junius, We’ve danced to this song too many times and you keep stepping on my toes! And it’s obvious you have no interest in learning or listening or being open to what I’ve been saying for years.
you repeatedly claim to be a free market guy and supporter of capitalism but then you are always the first one to attack me and anything to do with Ayn Rand, and you always argue for more government controls and defense of the current government and public sector. You’re a paranoid ignorant idiot. You have no understanding of what a free market is or how it should function. You have no understanding of how and why corruption thrives and the conditions required for a harmful monopoly. You are simply a communist.
For explanations to why your are so wrong pick up a copy of Ayn Rand’s ‘Capitalism – The Unknown Ideal’. It covers everything.
But I know you won’t because you just want to fight for your beliefs which is that you are smarter than everyone else and you know how to solve all the problems if you only had the power to do so. You’re a frggin’ commie. Look in the mirror and repeat….
I am a commie and I know what’s best
I am a commie and I know what’s best
I am a commie and I know what’s best
I am a commie and I know what’s best
I am a commie and I know what’s best
…………………
@mary cleaver (yikes)
do you remember just a very few years back the mantra in stock investing was “buy and hold” ? do you think they were talking about 3 months waiting ?
WB used this, “buy and hold”. i think he is doing this for more than 20 years.
i do not say she is right but we do not need to prove we are not right.
everything depends on the situation, we do not have model fits all.
even Garth buys real estate that produces net income, this is the key.
This is how clown phobias get started. I’m talking about today’s video of course.
#99 Junius
Have you been stealing Smoking Man’s candies?
Who said Mumbai should be worth 23 times more than Van? Also, who said there exists a positive correlation between population and home prices? Dude, I know ur more intelligent than that.
In past a good indicator of serious trouble in a RE market is the number of desperate techniques from agents.
This includes the crap from the July 19th – Kelowna Craiglist, all from one RE company – advertising these links in separate ads:
http://WWW.BUYINGAHOME KELOWNA.COM
http://www.ownahomefor25aday.com/index.html
http://WWW.KELOWNAHOMESELLINGMISTAKES.COM
http://www.kelownamoveupbuyer.com
mykelownahomedidnotsell.com
http://WWW.FORECLOSUREKELOWNALISTINGS.COM
http://WWW.KELOWNAHOMEFORSALEBYOWNER.COM
http://WWW.KELOWNAHOUSEVALUE.COM
http://WWW.KELOWNAFIXERUPPERHOMES.COM
http://WWW.KELOWNAHOMEBUYINGMISTAKES.COM
http://WWW.KELOWNASTOPPAYINGRENT.COM
#99 Junius said ‘I run a Global Company…’
I don’t run a global company so it must mean my opinions are much less meaningful. Just when I thought I had it all figured out.
#84 T.O. Bubble Boy
Lower rates and lax lending standards have misallocated credit to inexperienced first-time investors who have devalued the rental market by paying more dollars per square foot. The renter on the other hand has benefited the most on a value adjusted bases.
#107 truth hammer
Home prices account for almost 1/5th of the CPI basket.
#89John on 07.21.12 at 9:04 am
Given the right conditions, this could happen to almost any woman.
Almost every entry you post having to do with females is disdainful, disrespectful, confrontational. So, without being confrontational myself, I would like to ask you what it is in your experience, culture, or background that causes you to be thus?
I genuinely want to know, out of interest in the human condition. Though I am never likely to agree with your assessment of the majority of the human species, it is useful to know why some people think the way they do.
I hope you will reply.
Presenting The 10 Most Spectacular Financial Speculations Of The Past 300 Years
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-10-most-spectacular-financial-speculations-past-300-years
#106 Doug in London. You sound lost…
107 Truth Hammer – all sorts of volatile things are included in GDP – oil, crops, lumber etc. The part of RE that is included is new construction, renos, and services
but not re-sales as nothing new is produced. What would be included is the commission on a sale though as it is considered a service. Not that I agree with that.
Here’s a good website that tells you exactly how much house prices are dropping in Vancouver.
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/
Take a look its very interesting.
I would love to see this for Kelowna and Whistler as well.
Garth is no fool, and will remember the 1970’s when entire subdivisions closed out with nobody moving in, as all was bought on speculation, and speculation tax killed the market. Now, for you that want a bargain when the bubble bursts, do not make a move for several years as the bottom will take time, so when you see a decrease in values be patient. I say condos in 416 down by 50%, and it will become a bloodbath.
#86 Dr Wayne
The BC/ Lowermainland decline has only begun…….As Garth has written a few times “be patient”. It goes up fast but slow on the way down as sellers are reluctant to sell for less. The US is still in decline after 5/6 yrs though some media reports are trying to pump it up.
Just another comment about banks.
I was in CIBC the other day and I will save you the details but they Senior Financial Planner (a title like that ) has a graph of their mutual fund performance for 2011 up and the lines all go up. I just commented that I bet 2012 wont look like that.
Then (it) asked me if I wanted to move any of my money into mutual funds at CIBC. I said do you provide ETF’s and the person was clueless. No idea what they were…..
Yup they sure provide sound advice. Every bank should have the hand in your pockets poster on the front door.
2 tear-downs for the price of…. 3?
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12233115&PidKey=-1575436901
#130greed on 07.21.12 at 2:34 pm
You are kidding, right?
Best,
HD
There are many myths in society:
– World is flat
– Mermaids exist
– House prices go up forever
Read:
Bubbles – Extreme Maker and Breaker of Wealth
http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/bubbles-extreme-maker-and-breaker-of.html
RE Stats Phoenix AZ – June 2012
http://uglyhousephotos.com/wordpress/?p=23560
Ms. Cleaver not only disabled commenting on her Youtube video but ‘rating’ as well.
@ #106 Doug in London
“…If I buy a house for 200 grand that some years ago would have sold for 300 grand, wouldn’t that mean my mortgage payments are a third lower so I have more money to spend elsewhere which would boost the economy more?”
>> Are you simple? Obviously your mortgage payment would depend on your interest rate / down payment etc….but if 70% all ready own homes then maybe its ok for you, but not 70% of the population.
@ #116 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables
You sound like one of those partially informed libertarian types…best of intentions, but the partial part will get ya every time.
Cheers
if he is a “commie” then what does one call this?
“And President Bush is on record in a film called “The World According to Monsanto,” senior President Bush, asking Monsanto, “What do you want us to do?”
MAN 1 in The World According to Monsanto: And I would say quite frankly, we have no complaints about the way the USDA has handled it. They’re going through an orderly process. They’re making sure as they deal with these new things they do them properly. No, uh, if we’re waiting until September and if we don’t have our authorization we may say something different.
VICE PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH SR. in The World According to Monsanto: Call me. We’re in the dereg business. Maybe we can help.
VANDANA SHIVA: In India, Monsanto, in effect, controls our agricultural ministry and our prime minister’s office. And so very, very often, we have to work very closely with our state governments, which are our regional governments, to defend our constitutional rights.
To say, “Why should we be force fed a genetically engineered B.T. eggplant, when we have the most delicious eggplants, 4,000 varieties?” It took a movement, 13 governments, 7 public hearings to put a moratorium. The advisors from here flew in to try and undo that moratorium.
BILL MOYERS: Monsanto advisors?
….
http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/10456-moyers-vandana-shiva-on-the-problem-with-genetically-modified-seeds
“Canada Growth Risks Falling Behind U.S. on Exports: Economy”
“Carney reiterated that it “may become appropriate” to raise the benchmark lending rate for the first time since September 2010, even as a slowing global economy prompts central banks from China to the U.S. to ease policy.”
“Canadians’ ratio of debt-to-income reached a record 154.3 percent in the first quarter as the U.S. ratio declined to 141.2 percent. Employment growth totaled 15,000 in May and June, slowing from 140,500 in March and April, the fastest back-to- back monthly increase in more than 30 years.”
“We’re going to start to see some drag coming from housing,” Basile said by phone from Toronto. “Once housing starts to turn, it won’t necessarily turn in a gradual or orderly fashion.”
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-M7GWGU1A74E901-6N3HQ1QFR3NA95345B9NSLU1NH
#123 TRT,
You said, “I don’t run a global company so it must mean my opinions are much less meaningful. Just when I thought I had it all figured out.”
I don’t care what you do but you have been pumping this blog for 2 years with the “immigrants will save the market” rant. Now that you are clearly proven wrong maybe you could show some humility.
Seems odd that Mary would shut down her Utube account suddenly! I would have thought the purpose of the video was to have as much market saturation as possible. I guess she must have known it was bull@&$%.
In my opinion the only economy in Canada that is sheltered from the possibility of real estate prices dropping is Alberta due to the hot economy in that province. BC (especially Vancouver) is due for a moderate to heavy price correction, I’d estimate 20-30% over the next couple of years.
Dishonest mortgage brokers are just as much the problem as Realtors. Financial institutions forced to demand applicants produce their Revenue Canada Assessments because mortgage brokers were providing T4 slips and employment letters.
In August 2007 a company called South Kitchener Holdings bought about 106 acres of land where the former B.F. Goodrich plant was located for $24.2 million, or about $228,000 per acre.
About three months later the City of Kitchener bought about 45 acres of that land for $22.4 million, or about $497,000 per acre.
====================
Terry Pender, Record staff Fri Jul 13 20126 3 Recommend City’s justification for pricey land deal not borne out in documents
KITCHENER — When the City of Kitchener paid $22.4 million for the land and building that is now the site of its operations centre on Goodrich Drive, it initially defended the deal, saying the previous owner of the property was responsible for cleaning up any environmental contamination.
But documents released Friday by the city indicate both the owner of the land and the city knew 18 months before the sale was complete that there was no environmental contamination on the site.
The Record applied for the documents under the Municipal Freedom of Information Act in early 2008, but the city refused to release them until ordered to do so last month by the Divisional Court.
When city councillors approved one of the biggest land purchases in the municipality’s history in November 2007, environmental liability was an important issue because remediation of a contaminated site can cost many millions of dollars and the city did not want to get stuck with a huge cleanup bill.
But the documents obtained by the Record reveal there were no outstanding environmental issues at the time of sale and there had not been any environmental issues for several months previously…”
…
http://www.therecord.com/news/local/article/760999–city-s-justification-for-pricey-land-deal-not-borne-out-in-documents
Not 1st
Checked out ticker EXE. That is looks worthwhile picking up a couple hundred shares. BA is landlines, don’t know. Can’t find the Enbridge unless its ENF. I’ve got 100 shares already.
Sorry Garth, the discount online brokerage cowboys are taking over your site.
Linda Pearson wrote:
“#89John on 07.21.12 at 9:04 am
Given the right conditions, this could happen to almost any woman.
Almost every entry you post having to do with females is disdainful, disrespectful, confrontational. So, without being confrontational myself, I would like to ask you what it is in your experience, culture, or background that causes you to be thus?
I genuinely want to know, out of interest in the human condition. Though I am never likely to agree with your assessment of the majority of the human species, it is useful to know why some people think the way they do.
I hope you will reply.”
————–
Your “interest” is hardly genuine.
Given Mary Cleaver has disabled her Youtube page, for those inclined to provide her feedback, her website contact form is available:
http://www.marycleaver.com/Contact.php
Here is the Mary Cleaver blog cast with exact the same information she released in the deleted youtube video. I got already some prints creens of the posting in case she also deletes this content.
http://www.marycleaver.com/Blog.php/category/real-estate-q-a/is-this-a-good-time-to-buy-vancouver-real-estate
I just bought a pound of Maple Leaf brand bacon at one of the Fortinos chain grocery stores in Hamilton. Product of USA.
If our booze wasn’t 100% more than in the US, I’d seriously consider taking up drinking. Party on Canada!
#144 Tom from Mississauga on 07.21.12 at 6:01 pm
ENF is income fund but they also have some preferred in the 5.5% range.
I finally bought an ETF yesterday – XTR yielding almost 6% a little high weighting in financials though.
Garth, for shame, now you are out there scaring realtors back into the shadows.
actually this is the blog about `real estate as an investment`:
http://www.marycleaver.com/Blog.php/category/real-estate-q-a/q-my-question-is-about-real-estate-as-an-investment.-with-the-high-cost-of-property-in-vancouver-why-should-i-buy-a-condo-when-i-can-rent-i-can-put-the-money-i-would-ve-spent-on-a-down-payment-in-the-stock-market.-a-i-asked-a-similar-question-of-my
#107 truth hammer on 07.21.12 at 11:31 am
If real estate values were accounted for in the same way as the official CPI ….in other words ‘voilitile’ and unworthy of capture…..the CDN wealth stats published recently would have really been a downer eh?
Why is the volitile real estate market counted as ‘GDP’ worthy when in fact it is the most volitile unit in the marketplace……political expediancey maybe?
Can you see how much BS is being pumped out by the civil service to justify themselves?
……………
I’m sure you meant the current PMO/PCO. The CS can’t say a word unless it’s been vetted by the PMO/PCO hacks.
George Bush…..
Whose yo Grandaddy?
http://cannonfire.blogspot.ca/2006/04/george-w-bush-barbara-bush-and.html
George W. Bush, Barbara Bush, and Aleister Crowley
I still find it amazing that there isn’t any “Regulatory Body” to oversee this crap i.e. Mary Cleaver.
People should make complaints to their local MP. etc. I am completely blown away with this sh*t. Double your investment???? This is dishonest marketing. There must be something one can do.
If house priced doubled and then fell by a third and NOTHING else happened in the economy then NO, there would be no negative consequences, but what happened was a DOUBLE WHAMMY:
1) – Good paying manufacturing jobs and other higher paying service jobs were outsourced to China, India, Mexico, and God knows where else. That left only house construction and house-sales / financial jobs to absorb all of those unemployed people , and this happened ONLY because house prices were rising so fast and the housing market was BOOMING.
2) – Idiots were using their houses like ATM machines and buying new BMW’s, Mercedes, and speedboats with the home equity loans they were taking out on inflated house prices.
So when the house market crashed, and all of those jobs when with it, the DEBT of those BMWs remained, and with no jobs then nobody could pay for them. And it still remains like that today; way too many people and not enough jobs for them all.
OH CRAP, HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS GENTLEMEN, WE ARE GOING INTO ANOTHER DIMENSION, A NEGATIVE DIMENSION !
MY PREDICTION:
– In 3 months the ECB (European Central Bank) will drop its Deposit rate to NEGATIVE 0.25% , just like Denmark has just done.
( Read about it here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/21/us-ecb-coeure-idUSBRE86K03820120721 )
Then, before the end of this year, America’s FED will also drop their Deposit rated down to NEGATIVE 0.25%, AND by Spring it will be down to NEGATIVE 0.50%.
Canada’s central bank will drop their deposit rated down to negative 0.25% by next summer.
MY prediction is that in 3 years time, the ECB deposit rate will be NEGATIVE 2%, the FED will be NEGATIVE 1.25%, and Canada’s Central bank deposit rate will be negative 1.0%.
And yes GARTH, this means one HELL of a Depression is coming.
re: cities and towns use of eminent domain
From an Unlikely Source, a Serious Challenge to Wall Street
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/from-an-unlikely-source-a-serious-challenge-to-wall-street-20120720#ixzz21J62nF6A
Wall Street’s political operatives — the American Bankers Association, American Securitization Forum, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and the Financial Services Roundtable — wrote a panicked letter to the Supervisors of San Bernardino County in California to express “strong objection” to a proposal by a startup mortgage company. The letter conveys the unmistakable threat that Wall Street will sic its lawyers on the county and will “likely be reluctant to provide future funding to borrowers in these areas.”
No Wonder Eminent Domain Mortgage Seizures Scare Wall Street
Rep. Brad Miller
JUL 11, 2012 7:00am ET
http://www.americanbanker.com/bankthink/eminent-domain-mortgage-seizures-terrify-wall-street-1050811-1.html?zkPrintable=true
#154 Superman on 07.21.12 at 7:54 pm
If that comment posted on her YouTube account originated with a visitor from this site I am truly disappointed. In that instance, I apologize to Mary Cleaver without qualification. — Garth
=============
Garth, noble of you to put out an apology, but this is the internet. Sites links to each other. And anonymous commenting on many online properties sometimes bring out the worst in people (as in this case). You are not culpable in the least with respect to Ms. Cleaver’s account and the comments generated. She has the ability to set permissions and moderate her website and social media properties in any number of ways she chooses.
Just my 2 cents.
CIBC Indemnification Bribe
CIBC offers settlement to brokers: http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/breaking-news/cibc-offers-settlement-to-brokers/124025/
under the terms:
“RELEASES AND FOREVER DISCHARGES Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CIBC Mortgages Inc., FirstLine Mortgages, each of its and their subsidiaries… from any and all claims, demands and causes of action.”
So when all the fraudulent loans are exposed, it falls back on the broker. Brilliant.
Why are ya’ll picking on the realtress?
Geez…its what the Real Estate boards do all the time….she’s following THEIR lead.
#140 Junius said “I don’t care what you do but you have been pumping this blog for 2 years with the “immigrants will save the market” rant. Now that you are clearly proven wrong maybe you could show some humility.”
You are out to lunch. Prices haven’t budged yet here in Surrey for the low end sfd homes. For your education: Average prices going down simply imply high end houses aren’t selling…dragging down the average price. Its a numbers thing. Probably why some people do a BA instead of a BSc. ;)
And prices are up around 150% in last 10 years in my hood here in Surrey. I will let you now when that goes down. And by the way…instead of saying “statistically small”, try ‘statistically insignificant.’
Garth you are truly a disappointment.
Why on earth would you feel compelled to apologize to this lying saleswoman. She is spouting lies, disinformation and spin in the hopes that she can rope in a few more ill -informed suckers.
I guess when all is said and done you are a politician at heart and not near as mean as you pretend to be.
Like all the other wannabe boomer bikers, you are all talk and no walk and waaaayyyy too polite!
This is a rather pathetic blog and you just set the tone of its lameness!
Garth apologizing to some realturd for some bad emails …. sheesh, now I’ve heard everything!
So perhaps it’s time you learned something. — Garth
UPDATE: Mary Cleaver disabled her video on Saturday following the publication of this post. This came after offensive comments were posted on her YouTube account. If those comments were the work of visitors from this site, I am truly disappointed. I called Ms. Cleaver on Saturday night to apologize on behalf of the many people who come here, and who would never dream of being so childish, mindless or mean. — Garth
…………………………
Haven’t read her video Garth, nor most of the comments on your blog. I commend you for calling her. You are a true gentleman. I read a lot of online political commentary and am totally disgusted with what I read. I refrain from commenting. I deleted my Facebook account when I learned that when you hit ‘like’ it became part of you acct. I never accepted friends but discovered a few I knew from childhood & they lied about their age and other stuff I knew about them.
On a lighter note – crazy but within the last few days 2 very dear old friends contacted me out the blue. One was in Hfx & visited the other eve. – funny & down to earth – we were in Brussels together & old roomies in Ottawa). Another friend (Gita) did a search on Facebook and found 2 of our old friends (twin sisters) & they are all keen that we get together in Mtl. So, today I made reservations with Porter & hopefully will meet up with them. Trip will allow me to be in Mtl. for my niece’s baby shower & help my younger sis with the preps.
Cheers.
Saturday’s Times Colonist of Victoria: “Inflation up but prices steady”
Buhahahhhahahahh!
I must agree. Although the sexual comments were not neccesary (and disgusting, I am glad no one saw them), I think that Mary needs to develop some tough skin. Realtors have said far worse about people. Apparently the realtor who came out a few weeks ago and said “SELL SELL SELL” in Vancouver got so many threats he later had to retract part of his statement. Realtors were practically accusing him of treason. I think it’s sad it has come to this, but you know what, I don’t really care. Mary is a big girl. What’s worse, being told you have a “you know what” in your mouth, or costing a young family $500,000 by lying to them and telling them it’s the time to buy? Just so you can get more commission? Sad times.
Garth you’re a stand-up guy for apologizing, but at the same time, did you at least tell her how stupid she was when you talked to her on the phone?
@TRT
Join the stupid Surrey club. Don’t worry, prices will go downhill. I saw all the idiot drunks hanging out at the Fusion Festival tonight… I hear they are all homeowners too. Half of them landlords also. Watch how fast Slurrey crashes when things get bad. No one is going to live in Surrey when prices come down in Vancouver, especially with the new bridge tolls coming. $4 each way for a toll? That’s $40 a week or $160 a month. It just keeps costing more and more to live in the dump called Surrey.
In RE: to this Mary Cleaver person, it should be known that she has only been a realtor for 10 months. She sure chose a good time to get into the market. Be honest – WHY ON EARTH does she think she can give financial advice? Even a seasoned realtor of 30 years has NO RIGHT to be giving financial advice. They are not economists, they are realtors. The fact she posted these youtube videos only 2-3 months after she became a realtor is distasteful. She probably forgot she posted them until you found them and then just deleted her youtube account, not caring anymore. I am guessing she had dreams of becoming a youtube sensational and appearing on Global’s Noon News Hour as their special real estate expert. So much for that.
This bubble is overdue for a blowup. After waiting for four years and every year going, “Oh,wow, yeah, this autumn is going to be a bloodbath. It’s gonna be so bad next spring. Oh, yeah. Mmm-hmmmm. Wooo-weee. Look out below,” and then another 12 months pass and it’s just business as usual. I have a friend who sold a house this week in less than 24 hours. They didn’t even get it up on MLS, they just opened it to the agents and presto! Sold! Houses in my neighbourhood still posting sold signs. Although I’m noticing a lot of brand new, unoccupied houses on MLS in my ‘hood. And call me crazy but there is a lot of work being done in our neighbourhood, trees being mercilessly pruned, roofs being reshingled, shrubs being ripped out. These are things that people in this neighbourhood have lived with for years and then suddenly all at once everyone comes out and starts sprucing up their properties. I smell some sales in the air, like, A LOT of new listings. Or call me crazy, could just be getting a buzz off all this deleveraging talk in the media, it’s doing my head in.
Call me old school, but if Mary chooses to “put herself out there” she can’t expect to be insulated from criticism. It is very brazen of her to post her opinion on you tube. There are lots of visitors to this blog that never post a comment. Those that do post willingly exposes themselves to the odd harmless taunts. We challenge and criticize politicians, celebrities, and whoever puts themselves in the spotlight. I don’t know what kind of comments were posted on her you tube account, and I don’t condone any use of foul language. Good of you to call Mary to apologize, but Mary is a big girl and should stand up for herself and stand behind what she truly believes. The fact that she removed her video hints to me that she didn’t.
Scandal At The IMF: Senior Economist Resigns, Says “Ashamed To Have Had Any Association With Fund At All”
After twenty years of service!!
Pretty Soon, it will be the SCHL scadal.
#162 TRT,
Thanks for proving my point. You havent learned a thing. But you will.
So we can expect more mind numbing arguments abouT waves of immigrants keeping Surrey from crashing? At least you are consistent.
Since Garth doesn’t post daily anymore, I have to get some entertainment from Zerohedge. You guys will love this:
“We do not like to think of ourselves as potentially irrational herd animals (that will be the Jones’s). We seek narrative frameworks that purport to explain our good fortune, ideally in ways that flatter. Reinhardt and Rogoff called it the This Time It’s Different syndrome as each age sought to deflect warnings by arguing we’re smarter now, better organised, or living in a different world. Just as the sellers of an overpriced home will convince themselves that it was their interior decorating skills not an inflating bubble that got them the good deal.
Of course warnings may keep coming, and almost by definition, from the fringes. When assessing risks that challenge consensus, people are more likely to defer to authority, which generally sees itself as the representative of the consensus. Furthermore, as a species with strong attachments to group affirmation, being wrong in a consensus is often a safer option than being right but facing social shaming, or especially if found to be wrong later.
Far better to say: “Look, don’t blame me, nobody saw this coming, even the experts got it wrong!”
But even if we can appreciate a warning, the inertia of the status quo generally ensures acting on such warnings is difficult. In general we chose the easiest path in the short-term, and the easiest path is the one we are familiar and adaptive with. We would rather put off a hard and high consequence decision now, even if it meant much higher consequences some time in the future. However, if each step on the path of least resistance is a step further from where we ideally should be, the risks associated with doing anything rise as the divergence is so much wider. Eventually one’s bluff may be called, but not yet, and hopefully on somebody else’s watch.
The consensus can often be correct and the marginal voices may be deluded. The point for the risk manager is to try and step through cognitive and social blind-spots by first recognising them. This is particularly true if the risks (probability times impact) considered are very high.
Unfortunately, it is very clear that we have learned almost nothing general about risk management as a societal practice arising from the financial crisis. We have merely adopted a new consensus, with a questionable acknowledgement that we will not let this type of crisis happen again.”
Source:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trade-study-global-systemic-collapse
#163 penpal on 07.21.12 at 9:14 pm
Mary Cleaver became a poster girl of the day for obvious reasons. RE always goes up for example as though the past will be our future, or the creation of the false belief in the choice between RE or stocks (pitching it as an investment solely or reducing the investment potential of money to just two area’s knowing stocks intimidate people more than RE), downplaying the serious consequences of debt and possibility of higher rates as mortgages come up for renewal, this is the stuff that Mary spieled and its not on the up and up as we know.
What we should be more acutely aware of Penpal, is how we as individuals react to the actions of others. There is such a thing as setting a precident, an example for others to follow and being too judgmental, too righteous, too superior… in handling the mistakes and sins of others is hardly the way of handling it. We are human beings, not rag dolls.
Whats that old saying… “In the beginning was the word, and the word was with God and the word WAS God. The same was in the beginning with God.” (I used an old Scoefield)
It begins with words that form a concept, Penpal. An ideal or in the example I used, a system of ideals, a language that becomes living only until you live it. Ideals, y’know, like marriage or family, oneness, peace and redemption. Ideals, always worthy and noble, if we get anywhere close even if its brief, we know the value of their pursuits and the dance is far from boring so… respect it not just in action but “reaction”. Mary Cleaver used a shitty realtor’s spiel, yeah, we get that but she’s also a fellow human being, fellow galactic planetarian (lol, I just had to say that) and someone’s sister and daughter with an existence no less important than our own.
Hmm. So what will happen to all the deposits when clients are charged to keep cash in banks?
We are looking at major withdrawals, resulting in bank failures across the board on a massive scale, and yes, a Depression that will make the Thirties look good.
#145John on 07.21.12 at 6:44 pm
Your “interest” is hardly genuine.
Ah…that is telling.
#115 Blue monster, etc. — Why don’t you cut back on the meat and eat more veggies ’cause you seem to becoming too beefy and aggressive. Although I totally agree with you about communism, the last thing we should ever want is Ayn Rand’s form of libertarianism. Besides, in today’s world it would be as impossible to have it as it would be true communism. Cheers!
#164 – Live within your means
My god, im usually not cruel either, but no one cares about you meeting up with old friends. I think you should re-activate your FB account so you cant post random shit about yourself that no one else on the blog gives two sh*ts about. Maybe then you wont feel the need to come here and post comments that aren’t funny, interesting, or have anything to do with RE.
On a lighter note,(ha) I work in the patch and one thing I have noticed since getting back out to the field is that the majority of people are beginning to agree with the fact that real estate is probably going down in the near future. I think since the MSM is taking the RE bubble talk and running with it, the idea that houses dont always rise in value seems like an actual possibility…even in Alberta!
#127 — Great posting of that website. Prices with pictures puts it all in perfect perspective showing the dropping prices over the last 3 or 4 months. Everyone on Garth’s blog should have a look. THANKS!
and #114 prairie dawg
bahahaha, i literally had a coughing fit and choked a little halfway thru your post. awesome.
says still no housing bubble.
http://www.munknee.com/2012/07/still-no-housing-bubble-in-canada-so-what-will-cause-prices-to-finally-correct/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/21/global-elite-tax-offshore-economy
“A global super-rich elite has exploited gaps in cross-border tax rules to hide an extraordinary £13 trillion ($21tn) of wealth offshore – as much as the American and Japanese GDPs put together – according to research commissioned by the campaign group Tax Justice Network.”
Class warfare on it’s way, get the popcorn………
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/07/19/the-libor-scandal-in-full-perspective/
“To sum up, what has happened is that irresponsible and thoughtless–in fact, ideological–deregulation of the financial sector has caused a financial crisis that can only be managed by fraud. Civil damages might be paid, but to halt the fraud itself would mean the collapse of the financial system. Those in charge of the system would prefer the collapse to come from outside, such as from a collapse in the value of the dollar that could be blamed on foreigners, because an outside cause gives them something to blame other than themselves.”
Let’s see if anyone goes to jail, lol………….
#172 Junius,
Judging by your post times, you gotta get out more often my friend. Come to Surrey…we can make believe that most residents just appeared out of thin air. Immigrants don’t exist. If they do, they don’t occupy houses. Happy now, Junius?
Now, why aren’t you out on Granville? Postin is off limits for you fri/sat nite at 8-10 pm’ish. What’s that? you got a smartphone.. lol
And Junius, you said:
“#162 TRT,
Thanks for proving my point. You havent learned a thing. BUT YOU WILL. ”
Is that a veiled threat? Good thing there is a record of these posts. I hope you werent the one to teach Ms. Cleaver a lesson..
**** “… I called Ms. Cleaver on Saturday night to apologize on behalf of the many people who come here, and who would never dream of being so childish, mindless or mean…”
This is not ‘childish’ or ‘mindless’, as you would think, Garth. This is real anger of those who are strong, hardworking and educated, but cannot afford to buy something in vancouver FOR YEARS. Therefore, she deserves the comments.
She is a ‘knight of the bubble’
#89John on 07.21.12 at 9:04 am
Given the right conditions, this could happen to almost any woman.
Almost every entry you post having to do with females is disdainful, disrespectful, confrontational. So, without being confrontational myself, I would like to ask you what it is in your experience, culture, or background that causes you to be thus?
I genuinely want to know, out of interest in the human condition. Though I am never likely to agree with your assessment of the majority of the human species, it is useful to know why some people think the way they do.
I hope you will reply
————-
Ok…the “answer” for you has to do with basic human dignity and the social dynamics our “economy” ( the “real estate” bubble) is revealing in Canada.
Your position is unfortunately sexist, since you require denial of male and female ( the neutered Canadian identity). You can’t have dignity for a human being without giving them visibility of who they really are, and most especially gender.
I note in your comment that you have “decided” what means what, create that as your non-negotiable base, and then “calmly” ask for clarification. You do this “nicely”, hiding your anger.
As a Canadian woman, you would have suffered many decades of decline in life quality due to the “muzzling masculinity style” ( erasing femininity as a result) of your post…applied at a national level. Women rightly should be outraged at the continual degeneration of their sex… as they have had to become masculine to survive. And they live in a leaderless society.
Check your gut. How do you feel upon the suggestion that men should lead women? Immediate anger…even rage. The kind you hide behind in your post. Is that natural? Is that part of your identity? It shouldn’t be.
You live in a world of little boys, addicted to stimulous and beaten down to accept castration as fairness. Walk down your street. They are selling “homes” for 800 thousand dollars….pumped up by phony world derivatives. And the people inside those homes are “lost in space”, watching cable…without community.
Healthy people all have frustration and anger at the opposite sex for unmet needs and life’s hard knocks. They are externalized and integrated in a process of maturity. Your comment demonstrates an immature desire to “sort of” express yours, but create no space for those you claim “break protocol”. As with the context of the woman in the realtor video…it is definitely not your fault. At the same time you’re not a victim.
You’ve likely heard very little “no” in your environment and are unused to natural gender expression. Men are to be untrusted and are weak. Part of the pathology is to deny these dynamics. This strikes at the heart of the Canadian neutered (de-gendered) culture.
In your obvious experience of men as weak…. you’re absolutely right. This however is your desexualized stalemate. Do you think these dynamics are not going on in many of the “property virgin” “homes”? You’ve been suckered. And the broken trust means you will not accept leadership from men. I think this is very reasonable.
You do however accept the cold comfort of lost nice boys who look to their illusion of women for approval, and show you false asexual “respect” in a spirit of invisibility and “social correctness”. What value this has for you I can’t imagine.
In a mature communication, since you don’t allow communication, you would be positively respected…and then be simply told “no”, be avoided or be ignored. This is what a man would do.
#8 mary cleaver (yikes) on 07.20.12 at 9:35 pm
Take a really good look at her face….and then decide.
Great and relevant post.
I NEVER help any bank or corporation in their charity endeavours. I couldn’t forgive myself if I did. That would support their image as benefactors which they most definitely are not. This bold-face hypocrisy is insupportable. Teddy bears flooding counters across the nation…..what a transparent farce.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKprapaBXPo&feature=player_embedded
” All this accumulated debt that the Keyniesians would have you believe is irrelevant is wrong “
” 174 Daystar
With all due repect, if a Nazi was espousing evil doctrines which I feel threaten others, I would speak out as well and vociferously. When I see someone give sympathy to `the enemy`, I call them on it and I feel that Garth was simply too soft on her.
What I think you and others don`t get is the mentality behind such bs. These people couldn`t give a shit about anybody, they just want you to keep paying more and , of course, their commissions!
And Ms Cleaver, she really hopes you fall for it and pay her or her brethren their tithe for passing on such `valuable information.`How else can she justify the absurd level of RE commissions
No matter how you spin this, she is part of the RE complex that exists to separate the consumer from their money all out of proportion to the services rendered.
It`s called a monopoly and she is a proponent of it and I am against it. She is the enemy of EVERY Canadian that seeks affordable housing and the economic advantages it brings for Canada. She just wants you to pay the highest price possible to swell her earning and screw what`s good for screw Canada`s future.
Unfortunately for her, she put it out there and she got her tail kicked. I did not and would not waste my time commenting on anything she would post.
Re: #13 Mic D’angelo on 07.20.12 at 9:44 pm
The Bank Of Canada rate will be at zero eclipsing the one quarter percent overnight rate in America. Odds are 100 percent rates will keep falling in Canada thus pushing down the Bank Of Canada rate.
comment 170 eagle eyes
Good post and agree 100 per cent, especially your very last line.
Apparently pricing at $1 didn’t get this place sold:
C2403342 – 135 CHAPLIN CRES W Toronto
July 22: $997,000
Jul 11: $1,029,000
July 4: $1
June 27: $1,049,000
Now I guess they are hoping that pricing under $1M gets a 5% down CMHC-er to buy?
Guys…thx for your responses to my post about why Real Estate wealth has been glommed on to as ‘good’ and ‘news worthy’ as it has boosted the ‘average wealth’ nationally when it is in fact temporary, unevenly distributed and extremely volitile.
It seems that the government cherry picks what it likes about any hyperinflated issues and discounts what it doesn’t. I see that industrial paint, Chinese cotton T-shirts, plastic computer keyboards and iron ore prices are still valuable indicators of CPI…..what a joke.
Meanwhile we have hyperinflation in food, energy and housing……but as long as China can keep the price of t-shirts down, we’re all safe….great….I feel better.
It’s quite amazing how these poor Americans manage to keep prices under control….milk is half what I’d pay in BC…..ditto cheese…eggs ( $1.22 per doz) meat, gas ( $ 3.50 as opposed to $6 in BC) chicken ( under a dollar a pound) ….and even the processed foods are incredible cheap…….chips & etc’s……..BTW the t-shirts in Wall Mart…from China…sell at a buck…same thing as Zellers at $3.88 on sale.
How does this make us richer than the Americans? Only in the BS eyes of the propaganda spewers.
PS….here in Irving you can buy a really nice townhouse with all the tricks in the best areas for $200K……in Richmond BC they are half the quality ( made of brick here) and not the plastic & pressboard of Canadian quality……..smaller TH’s are listing above $600…….poor Americans…rich Canadians……this is a joke friends…….and get this ..average social security is over double what CPP and OAS pays combined…..and the cost of living is half.
@AprilNewwest, post #125:
No, I’m not lost, and my reasoning is sound. If I pay less for one item (such as mortgage payments) then by simple math I have more to spend elsewhere. In the worst case scenario it’s a zero sum game, because every dollar I spend elsewhere is a dollar less going to the bank for mortgage payments.
@Stickler, post #136:
Yes, you are right that I have oversimplified my estimate of payments. However, if all other variables (down payment, interest rate) are the same then obviously my mortgage payments MUST be lower. The prevalent idea in economics has been if you lower taxes it puts more spending money in people’s pockets which stimulates the economy and creates jobs. As I said above, why wouldn’t this reasoning apply to lower mortgage payments?
#130 greed on 07.21.12 at 2:34 pm
that is just to funny the same thing happened to me a few months back at CIBC, they wanted me to invest with them, but when I asked about ETFs she didn’t know what that was, i was shocked, how could my financial advisor not know this?
In regards to this RE woman, Mary or whatever her name is it seems to me ya’ll are awfully afraid of her…
Yes, she’s a liar, so what? Everyone one is to some extent.
All she is doing is fleecing sheeple and as I’ve said before thats what the ignorant masses are there for…
If you people are that easily influenced by some MILF ball of cotten candy I suggest YOU develop some thicker skin…
Stop attempting to save the stupid from themselves – just keep your own train on track …
Personal insults are pointless, but I suspect some of the badder, less-trained blog dogs are simply raging against the machine. The machine that produces $1 million dollar pre-war, unrennovated bungalows.
The bankers who say you are richer than you think, the mortgage brokers who purvey liar loan paperwork, realtors who insist: It’s a great time to get into the market or be priced out forever.
Now we know, “Nice girls do not visit this weblog” ;-)
The kids are alright…!?
#192 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.22.12 at 10:38 am
Apparently pricing at $1 didn’t get this place sold:
C2403342 – 135 CHAPLIN CRES W Toronto
July 22: $997,000
Jul 11: $1,029,000
July 4: $1
June 27: $1,049,000
Now I guess they are hoping that pricing under $1M gets a 5% down CMHC-er to buy?
====================
Good post.
Marketing gimmicks aside, the problem with that house is that it’s located right next to a large gas station. No amount of renovation is going to change that undesirable trait.
Maybe it would be better if falsehoods are called out. Here is another example
Bartiromo cnbc vs Spitzer regarding AIG Hank Greenberg
Mr Spitzer tells her to tell the truth .She replies:
“I’m not under oath and I am not in your courtroom! You are on my television show!”
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/more-on-libor-plus-spitzer-takes-on-bartiromo-in-japanese-monster-movie-epic-20120717#ixzz21NCkZTaz
This site is a good Toronto bubble index.
http://www.themash.ca/
re # 163 penpal
But I have learned something Garth.
I have learned that you are too politically correct and soft on those who would eradicate your opinion from the media if they could.
The woman (apparently a newbie realturd of some 10 months standing LOL) tried her pitch. It was trashed by people for the crap it was and she is.
You then go and console her / absolve yourself. It was and is a chickenshit move.
Why would you do this when she didn’t even post a rebuttal to fight for her position or expand upon it. Like all good conmen, she folded her 3 card monte game and slipped away.
Why should you care of the fallout if she obviously does not.
She removed the video because she realized that she made a huge gaffe and sorely misjudged the changing tenor of the times.
She put it out there and people told her what they thought. So nice of you to be so charitable to such a deserving young criminal in waiting.
I apologized to her for the sexually=explicit material posted on her site by brave anonymous idiots. Her occupation does not make her (or anyone else) a target for behaviour like that. Grow up. — Garth
#188 bigrider
nice video!
You may want to delete Comment #63, at least the name-calling part.
Done. Johnny D is ow on my Watch List. — Garth
eagle eyes,
7760 willowfield dr in Richmond. You said that this was listed for $799,999 last week. It’s now asking 999,999. It was priced for a bidding war. No takers, so it’s listed at market value.
#11 ” Onemorething ”
go back further in time ..this is an interesting read
Book Description
Before there was money, there was debt
Every economics textbook says the same thing: Money was invented to replace onerous and complicated barter systems—to relieve ancient people from having to haul their goods to market. The problem with this version of history? There’s not a shred of evidence to support it.
Here anthropologist David Graeber presents a stunning reversal of conventional wisdom. He shows that for more than 5,000 years, since the beginnings of the first agrarian empires, humans have used elaborate credit systems to buy and sell goods—that is, long before the invention of coins or cash. It is in this era, Graeber argues, that we also first encounter a society divided into debtors and creditors.
Graeber shows that arguments about debt and debt forgiveness have been at the center of political debates from Italy to China, as well as sparking innumerable insurrections. He also brilliantly demonstrates that the language of the ancient works of law and religion (words like “guilt,” “sin,” and “redemption”) derive in large part from ancient debates about debt, and shape even our most basic ideas of right and wrong. We are still fighting these battles today without knowing it.
Debt: The First 5,000 Years is a fascinating chronicle of this little known history—as well as how it has defined human history, and what it means for the credit crisis of the present day and the future of our economy
#194 truth hammer
“I see that industrial paint, Chinese cotton T-shirts, plastic computer keyboards and iron ore prices are still valuable indicators of CPI…..what a joke.”
Don’t forget toothpaste. http://postimage.org/image/yhjf9uic7/
Yes folks, even your toothpaste has kept up with home prices.
#194 truth hammer
You are in touch with reality! Nicely stated.
Could that be a picture from from http://america-underwater.tumbler.com/page/1 ??
Garth,
I think you’ve allowed the little yellow school bus readers turn your site into a Jerry Springer style real estate blog and then morf it into a real estate jihad.
Control your people.
If you’re so considerate why do you allow offensive comments (against Mary and others) be posted on your site?
Identify any that are offensive and I will review them, as is my practice. — Garth
All over GTA nothing is selling and realtors are really starting to look very much in a panic as the downturn is getter worse by the day. Sales in the GTA are down as well as prices. Been hearing of lots of failed bidding wars that didn’t even see a single bid even with a 20% reduction in prices. GTA prices need to correct and many insiders are calling for a 40% reduction in prices just to get back to normal price to income ratio of 3.5.
Realtors are SALESpeople, plain and simple,so why are so many on this blog so surprised when Realtors do their job and try the best way they know how to SELL their product.
If YOU paid thousands of dollars to a salesman to sell your house, and he didn’t do the best job possible to try to sell it, you’d be very upset.
It is the responsibility of every customer who deals with a salesperson to be wary of what they are being told and, whenever possible, to verify whatever the salesperson is saying.
Do you swallow everything, hook, line and sinker that a used car salesperson tells you? Or the word of someone in a store who is trying to sell you something? Hopefully the answer is “of course not”. So why treat Real Estate Salespeople any differently?
Gullable People need to stop blaming the salesperson, and start taking responsibility for their own gullable behaviour. The rule has ALWAYS been “buyer beware” when buying Real Estate (or anything else for that matter). And all who remember to follow that rule, and not totally trust the salesperson, should be OK.
“Stop attempting to save the stupid from themselves”
…well the stupid might be waking up
Wealthy hiding $21 trillion in tax havens, report says
‘Debtor countries’ are actually wealthy when hidden money is accounted for
CBC News Posted: Jul 22, 2012 1:58 PM ET Last Updated: Jul 22, 2012 1:57 PM ET
=
Geithner Lets the Cat Out of the Bag
Posted on July 18, 2012 by keltons | 7 Comments
By Marshall Auerback
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/07/geithner-lets-the-cat-out-of-the-bag.html#more-2684
#205 NAM not HAM
You are right about that house in Richmond. It was listed by a Vancouver realtor and they expected a bidding war. I laugh when I imagine the look on the owner’s face when they got one offer for close to asking of $798,000. The listing price of 999,999 is too high and it will sit there for a long time.
Garth pointed out that the prices will be sticky for awhile, and this is a great indicator. Sellers will hold on to their prices hoping the market will rebound.
Buyers won’t buy hoping that the prices will keep dropping.
To quote from The Great One:
“The phenomenon of recency makes us believe rising markets will swell forever, and falling ones will plunge without end.”
#194 truth hammer
Further… We have lived in the US since the 80’s and are shocked about how much basics cost in Canada.
We live in Central Texas and gas is $3.15 and if you shop at Walmart 18 eggs are about $1.50 on sale. My wife was in Canada for Xmas and purchased a bottle of Lindeman’s for about $17 and here the same costs $4.77 not on sale. She was stranded in a Canadian airport a couple of years ago and found herself hungry and eyeing a shriveled up weiner that had spent days on an electric roller that they were asking $4.99 for with packaged condiments. Here a typical gas station sells hot dogs for 2 for 99c with fresh ingredients.
I am reaching retirement now and worked more than half my career in Canada and was shocked to find out that my CPP payment will be $153 a month and in order to collect if I will be required to file Canadian income tax forms. My Social Security is 10X.
Who is richer? The Canadians or the Americans?
*off topic*
SMOKING MAN: If you get a chance to see CTV’s W5 program that is airing today. Very interesting regarding treatment of two patients at Sunnybrook Hospital in Ont. Scary as more and more stories like this come to light regarding the treatment of our elderly and infirm. So not cool……
PS The youtube vid you posted regarding scopolimine really freaked me out. I consider myself ‘aware’ of dangers around us, but I had never even heard of this stuff before. Thanks
@ #186 John
Your comments truly scare me.
#190 penpal on 07.22.12 at 10:20 am ” 174 Daystar
With all due repect, if a Nazi was espousing evil doctrines which I feel threaten others, I would speak out as well and vociferously. – Penpal
Yeah, but lets be realistic? Mary isn’t a Nazi and her “doctrines” won’t cause world wars or genocides so why bring the same heat? Its not serrendippidous.
“When I see someone give sympathy to `the enemy`, I call them on it and I feel that Garth was simply too soft on her.” – penpal
Yeah, we get that but part of the reason why this world is so messed up is because we don’t get the sympathy or compassion we need, instead we get the opposite. When you beat someone up mentally or verbally, never mind any other way, don’t you know how vulnerable they are, what kind of damage you are capable of inflicting? There’s a time and place for everything, including sympathy. I could so easily argue that its precisely the lack of sympathy that created the Hitler’s of this world and since you involked Hitler:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1W8I8uoVPo
… you won’t mind giving this link a look. Hitler in short, was abused. His dad was a drunken brute who beat Adolf regularly. His life, if you subscribe to Sigmund, a product of early abuse.
“What I think you and others don`t get is the mentality behind such bs. These people couldn`t give a shit about anybody, they just want you to keep paying more and , of course, their commissions!” – Penpal
We get it. She B.S.’d her way for money. And Jesus suped with theives and politicians. People change, penpal. Its what triggers change that ends up as permanent that I care about. Humility is a powerful healing tool as you know, but its not a one hit wonder and most certainly does not need to be delivered with cruelty and malice on every occasion.
“And Ms Cleaver, she really hopes you fall for it and pay her or her brethren their tithe for passing on such `valuable information.`How else can she justify the absurd level of RE commissions. No matter how you spin this, she is part of the RE complex that exists to separate the consumer from their money all out of proportion to the services rendered.” – penpal
I can’t minimize what you are saying here. The Real Estate sector is a cartel of sorts and 5% is steep (depending on the market and some realtors will justify it through advertizing expenses etc.). There needs to be more competition (time and place there too, RE is a tougher sell from here on in) and more regulation as we both know but the thing I think you miss is that the prevailing general overall weakness that has inflicted RE as a whole is greed. It doesn’t just stop with realtors. Bankers, politicians, developers, investors, buyers and sellers, they’ve all had a hand in this and greed has fed their choices all along and lets not just leave it at base generalizations, there are some bankers and politicians, realtors, developers and investors with honor, its true, y’know, some. But some of our leaders are outright corrupt and when corruption hits the top, most often damages the entire system. It damaged the U.S. and as a consequence the world, it will damage Canada here too.
Again, RE bubbles and their origins are nothing new. Nor is the fallout from their implosions anything new. The U.S. example should scare the pants off of Canada and yet, just like the U.S. in 05′ and 06′, we clinged onto the idea through into 2012 that “we’re different”. Well, we’re not. We are just as corruptable, gullible and flawed as anyone else and just like any other RE bubble anywhere else in this world, we’ve had weak leadership here publically AND privately. If you really want to slay the beast, you don’t jab at its belly with a toothpick addressing the Mary’s of the world, you grab a large sharp sword and cut off its head.
The rest of your comments are too militant? You spend too much time getting personal with the foot soldiers when its the generals and their leaders that need to go down. Save your angst for the one’s who have created the most damage. Aim high, penpal. Its not like these glory seekers are hard to spot.
#211 Triplenet on 07.22.12 at 2:59 pm
”
”control your people”
ggod luck with controlling the blog dogs.
i certainly dont know the facts of this incident however I am inclined to think that there may have been people impersonating other people.
e
#177 Linda Pearson on 07.22.12 at 3:12 am
I read your post #123, in response to post #89. I thought it was respectful and genuine.
I believe that the response that you received in return is indeed telling — telling of the poster’s arrogance and misogyny.
It appears that he and I share the same first name, which saddens me.
John
Americans pay less for just about everything so they can work for less. Who would have thought? It is no wonder that Ontario’s job market has cratered unless you are ok with $10.75 hr.
Canadian governments just keep borrowing more for new and existing social programs and to cover government waste.
Don’t worry, be happy! We are all spending someone else’s money and loving it.
I must support Garth for his integrity, as the video was put up to make a point, and not for idiots to trash her or make rude comments, as this was not in the cards, and he had no choice but to make a personal apology to this woman. So just move on, as this was needed to be done.
#220 daystar on 07.22.12 at 4:47 pm
“Humility is a powerful healing tool as you know…”
I would bet my life that that’s one thing penpal most certainly does NOT know.
Thanks for another compassionate, throughtful post from you. I’m sorry in advance for the response you will be receiving from penpal.
John
#186 John on 07.22.12 at 7:24 am
Get help.
#101 Bumbaclout on 07.21.12 at 10:46 am
Is RIM dead?
I just checked… no, but in a coma on life support. Prognosis not good!
#186 John on 07.22.12 at 7:24 am
As a Canadian woman, you would have suffered many decades of decline in life quality due to the “muzzling masculinity style” ( erasing femininity as a result) of your post…applied at a national level. Women rightly should be outraged at the continual degeneration of their sex… as they have had to become masculine to survive. And they live in a leaderless society.
==================================
Not sure how old you are, but regardless , seriously…. do you believe that diatribe ?
How much more DO feminists want ? They never catch on till its too late. Guys never had it so good…feminism is an oxymoron, it turn women into exactly what they detest. The old saying about why buy the cow when milk is free?
They never figured out that the “Career” (Male Equality y’know) simply expanded the money supply , hence inflation..and no one got ahead.
Then their biological clock ticks (if they haven’t had an abortion or more) spend thousands on “In Vitro”…….or on their 3rd marriage..and then up on Craigslist Personal ads trying to find a soulmate with a huge long list of specs.
Careful what you wish for, you may get it..in both spades and jokers
@ #205Just Checking
Thanks for being such a responsible decent citizen. Now you can sleep better at night.
“This [condo] unit was purchased by an investor from England. He has decided to sell it and will accept a purchase agreement that will break him even as to his purchase price and costs.”
“Originally purchased in April 28th of 2008 this unit was sold for $376,800 a copy of the original agreement of purchase and sale will be made available to the assignee. Assignemnt fees to the developer and commissions along with interim closing costs will determine the final selling price.”
http://www.assignit.ca/listing_details.aspx?lid=301
This unlucky chap purchased in 2008 for $376,800 and is asking $396,000; a 5% increase over a 4 year period. He should have purchased a Brad Lamb condo that comes with a proclaimed 282% ROI. At least he could sue if all goes wrong.
217 Brainsail – you will receive 10X the amount in Social
Security as in CPP, even though you spent roughly equal
time in each country?
This would concern me. (The SS – not the CPP.)
#227 Johnny D on 07.22.12 at 5:36 pm
“@ #205Just Checking
Thanks for being such a responsible decent citizen. Now you can sleep better at night.”
One less anonymous name-caller waging personal attacks?
I know I’ll sleep better.
John (not to be confused with Johnny D)
#224 Old Man on 07.22.12 at 5:06 pm
Ah da…. what did you expect?
* Please do NOT construe this as Investment advice – PLEASE consult a Professional, before your make any Investment decision *
I say that because I am lot licensed – but I am in a lucky position – I get to interview many people in the Investment Business – everyone from permabears crazies – to some of the folks you see on THOSE Networks. Big time. (*It’s challenging – but fun).
It is also fascinating.
I’ll make this fast. Most people, being herd animals that we are, sell at exactly the wrong time. EVERYONE of the two sides of the bear/muddle through fence says the same thing – we tend to SELL when we should be buying
BUT- this does not apply to all “asset” classes.
Take Real Estate (Hi Mary!!)
A House is not an “ASSET”. It’s a freaking large carbuncle of “Liability”, even if you own the sucker (*It’s called Upkeep and taxes, dude). Not to mention losing sale value, mayhaps?
That aside – just forget houses for a second.
Some folks told me this week that China is GROOVIN’ – while a few VERY smart people say a Hard landing is in the cards. Hot Asian Money is chasing whack loans and huge leverage all over the Middle kingdom today (Monday there – with worst rain in 60 years, in Beijing. Sent some to Texas and the midwest, please).
Forget HAM – it’s being served up by the Central Committee.
Bob Rennie must be hacked.
Commodities? Tricky. All of the smart guys are all over the map.
NOW – STOCKS.
Jesse Livermore said it best “all you need is access to credit to buy stocks”. (*He wound up broke and killed himself, BTW). BUT, that being said – there are some signs of life in SOME sectors and they are cheap and the Companies are sitting on a pile of dough. Now, do they spend and expand – and give dividends? Some will.
Look at ETFS, etc.
That’s why I end with – GET an advisor you TRUST and you like and ask to see his/her track record. Best year? Where are you on risk aversion scale right now?
What’s yours?
This is NO time for amateurs.
That being said – We could spend months talking about housing. The RE deal is very local – but – as of lately, in Canada, anyhow = U G L Y.
Vanpoover anecdote.
One of the agents had an Open here today. (*High end Highrise where we happily rent).
No excuses. It’s cloudy and cool. People are lazing – great day for lookie loos and their ilk. FLIES. (*Stolen from Mr. Turner).
Drops of 20% in Top End West Side, not uncommon.
This is startling.
Now = next?
Beats me – but like the man once said “be careful out there”.
–
2:15 clip (sound up) Best Police Pursuit — The music on this video is half the fun, the chase was on the CA-241 Toll road in Orange County, CA. This could have been right out of a Benny Hill episode, but it is an actual police chase…with a woman driver!
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Oh what a great weekend! A really good block party for the neighborhood (no gun incidents), lotsa bluegrass, C&W, R&B, R&R from a live band, food, drinks flowing freely, all the kiddies (21 and under) were put to bed by 6 pm Friday and weren’t let out of their bdroms. until late Sunday . . . mebbe next month we’ll do it again! Did anything happen in TROTW? Not that it matters, of course.
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Global Banks and Drug Cartels Partners in crime? US Poverty On the way to reaching the highest levels since the ’60s. This is progress? Part time NAmerica; Ben Bernanke quotes the truth; 9:27 clip “Leaving the eurozone could be done over a weekend, claims Lord Simon Wolfson in an interview with RT. A bank holiday needed to convert all assets into a new currency may become the dawn of a new economic era for those who dare to abandon the euro. A country that dares to leave eurozone would immediately have an enormous competitive boost, sharp decrease to unemployment rates and general kick start to the economy, argues the British businessman.”; IMF Please shut up. You’re a very silly person; California puts forth a new tax. On driving; Go East, young man That’s where the jobs and cheaper education are; IMF The rats are jumping from the sinking ship; JPM worst violater What else can be expected? 40 Days Spain runs outta money, Greece already is and Italy – Portugal should be next; Super Rich US$21 trillion in offshore accounts, and 13 tri. pounds kept stashed away from taxman; 6:52 clip Capital market — once it freefalls, there ain’t no stopping it.
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Cartoon Best ObummerCare joke ever; Iran Supposedly, the final trap has been set; Fake Terror “One cannot declare war on terror until one creates terror.” wrh.com; The new Syrian Constitution Guess who is writing it? SArabia Protests underway there; Apologies to all conspiracy theorists. They were right all along. The m$m was lying; Dumbed down to be set up? Connect the dots; Basic Instinct for survival; Encircling China with the US missile shield. Should last for a few weeks.
That realtor is yesterdays news.
Should be a regional blog tonight, highlighting the plight of some sorry ass house horny individuals in Bubble Town, Canada.
It’s like watching a slow motion train wreck.
Horrifying, and yet you can’t take your eyes off it…
#225 John G. Young on 07.22.12 at 5:10 pm
“Thanks for another compassionate, throughtful post…”
Lol, you caught me on a good day. :) As for penpal, we understand each other, at the end of the day its the motive that counts and I know his heart’s in the right place but everyone has a tendacy towards self absorbsion, ourselves included. Its the curse of being an individual and when we’re in that space it does disconnect or desensitize us from the needs of others, sometimes for quite a stretch depending on our environments and beliefs.
In a nutshell, thats why readers and blog dogs come here. Its not just Garth’s sexy physique although I’m sure thats a big, historical part of it. We come here to connect or re-connect to what others are thinking precisely because we can’t get it all on our own. We have limits as individuals that are overcome only through group efforts. We need to know what others are thinking or perhaps more importantly, knowing and thats the draw to this site especially because we do have a host here that has a large wealth of experience, knowledge and raw talent needed to express it for the rest of us to draw from and hopefully contribute to.
Cheers
#234 Bill Gable
but like the man once said “be careful out there”.
– — –
That ‘man’ was on Hill Street Blues at roll call. ;)
#194 truth hammer
Americans richer than Canadians, eh.
What a load of crap. Statistical idiocy.
Put your head in a fire and your feet in ice and your average temperature will be fine.Bwahhahahahaha!
#231 Gunboat Denier
I am not an expert on this but this what I know so feel free to whack me if I am wrong.
Both countries are similar because the payroll deductions are about 8%. As each year goes by each country raises the base salary contribution limit. I believe that this year Canada’s limit is around $46K and the US is around $116K.
So, in Canada if you make more than $46K a year your contributions stop at $46K. In the US they stop at $116k. The US system may be better because later in careers when you are making higher incomes one gets an opportunity to catch up.
If you worked in the US and made the contribution limit every year you could collect $2400/MTH versus the Canadian maximum of $1043/MTH or what ever it is.
Also, when you and your wife turn 65 she will also receive 50% of your social security even if she never worked a day in her life. If she worked then she would get her appropriate share but not less than 50%.
The average Canadian CPP payout is about $600/MTH. I do not know what the US is.
As far OAS goes you have to have lived in Canada 20 years after your 18th birthday to collect. 20 years is 50% of $600. That’s where I am at.
“206NAM not HAM on 07.22.12 at 2:24 pm
eagle eyes,
7760 willowfield dr in Richmond. You said that this was listed for $799,999 last week. It’s now asking 999,999. It was priced for a bidding war. No takers, so it’s listed at market value.”
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‘Market value’?
No bidders at $799,999 so raise the price to $999,000…. LOL
I think we’re all completely nuts…
#232John G. Young
You don’t even know the original post or the context. I insulted that genius on the video… but since you like her so much.
234 Bill Gable on 07.22.12 at 6:48 pm
Enjoyed that Bill. What you said about China and perma bears, I’ve always felt that if you’re going to be a perma bear, put your money where your mouth is and Jim Chanos is that guy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1ykiUWXGRw
Cheers!
“…I called Ms. Cleaver on Saturday night to apologize…”
What a class act. How unfortunate that so many seem unable to disagree respectfully.
I agree, it is the realtors duty to seek the best offer she/he can for the sellers. However, they have to be accountable for what they tell any prospective buyer. The old line of another buyer on his way is tired but still works for some. If the buyer bites so be it.
Where I take offence is the outright lie, many of which I have heard from many sales people. I do my own research and due diligence. If the realtor lies, they are gone.
No real estate doesn’t always go up. Yes, the stock market has performed better over the long term. Yes, location does matter, the dump you see is not really a selling feature. I could go on, but I suspect you get the picture.
A realtor who has just completed the course is not the professional to help you with the biggest purchase of your life. Get independent advice, ask a lot of questions and shop around. If the realtor says another buyer is coming, walk.
#242 Johnny D on 07.22.12 at 7:46 pm
“#232John G. Young
“You don’t even know the original post or the context…”
I don’t need to know those things. What I do know is that our host always errs on the side of allowing posts, so the fact that he saw fit to delete yours is enough for me.
“I insulted that genius on the video…”
I didn’t even see the video, and even if I had I wouldn’t assume that I knew her well enough to make judgments or sarcastic “genius” comments. It’s only the Internet — I don’t confuse it with reality.
“but since you like her so much…”
How old are you?
John
#237 daystar on 07.22.12 at 7:12 pm
“We come here to connect or re-connect to what others are thinking precisely because we can’t get it all on our own. We have limits as individuals that are overcome only through group efforts…”
I couldn’t agree more — although I’m not certain that that’s why everyone comes here; and I would add that that is why a basic level of respect in our communications is essential.
Cheers,
John
10 miles out. Vodka masqarading as water . I kill it on the boat. Listing to the new re masterd dark side of the moon then god desides to have fun with me. He trows 5 foot waves at me. I advance the cd player to track 5. Great gig in the sky. I egg god on come on you basterd take me now. As always he wimps out. Made it back.
What’s he waiting for is the son of bitch just keeping me around for entertainment or is he scared of me.
All the same what a rush
Bubble head I realy love bozze. On the lake lightning to the left lightning to the right. Floyed cranked. Its called living boys and girls. Q for linda paterson. Can you touch your toes with out bending your kness? Getting a visual.
#246 John G. Young
“I didn’t even see the video”
So why do you come to this blog? To NOT read and watch the daily postings from Garth? Or do you just come here to preach at peoples’ comments… another self righteous know nothing know it all. WATCH the video John G. Young. The woman is an idiot and thanks to what you wrote, you’re in the same category too.
240 Brainsail – thanks for explaining. Interesting that the SS contributions continue to such a high income while
CPP does not. Sounds like the payouts are roughly proportional to that.
#229 Johnny D
You’re welcome, loser.
#250 Johnny D on 07.22.12 at 10:00 pm
“Or do you just come here to preach at peoples’ comments…”
Not ‘just’.
“…another self righteous know nothing know it all. WATCH the video John G. Young. The woman is an idiot and thanks to what you wrote, you’re in the same category too.”
The video has been removed
So who’s the “know nothing know it all”?
And see comment #252.
John
I wouldn’t of apologized Garth…she’s getting free publicity!
@#525 Just Checking
DELETED
Correction… #252
Correction #552
I should stop typing drunk
No I was right the second time… #252