Five months ago when a north Brampton McMansion on a faux country cul-de-sac came to market, it was chaos. “Ten or eleven minivans arrived more or less all at once,” Brenda says, “and every one had a whole family in it – from grandma to a clutch of kids.” Staggered showings melded into a continuous river of humanity and by dusk that night no fewer than eight offers were on the kitchen table. All from Indo-Canadian buyers.
Brenda and Tom sold for $910,000, thirty thousand more than they’d been asking. And every two or three days for the next two months, until closing, a member of the family buying the place came to peer down the circular driveway or walk the empty field behind. “I have never,” she told me, “seen anyone so obsessed with a house.”
Sanjay lives in that neighbourhood, reads this blog, and says what happened shortly after that couple split town was like a light being flicked off. The market – one of the most enthusiastic in the entire GTA, fueled in part by waves of new, well-heeled immigrants – has croaked.
For those unaware of life where there are no Starbucks, Vespas or halter tops, Brampton may surprise you. With 530,000 people, it’s bigger that Regina and Saskatoon combined, the ninth largest city in the nation. But that’s not the interesting bit. The media age is just 33 (compared to 38 for Canada and 45 for Victoria). More interesting, people of South Asian extraction make up a third of the population and about 80% of the real estate market.
What’s this mean? Higher prices and frenetic sales, mostly. Extended families are the norm in most of the brassy new subdivisions, where three generations live together so houses are often humungous. And two or three or four salaries coming into the family also make carrying fat mortgages easier than for those crazy white people.
Anyway, back to GreaterFool senior Brampton correspondent Sanjay.
“I’d like to draw your attention to an area in North Brampton, a 1.2 Sq Km neighborhood on the fringes that has 34 detached homes listed! It’s a relatively new hood and what you can consider move-up homes, so I would assume all the sellers are not moving up to a bigger home. My guess is either the sellers have collectively discovered a fault line running across the hood or over extended families finding out even with cheapo mortgages it is getting tough to keep up with the payments.
“I have also seen couple of Power of Sales in this hood recently, one still on POS list. Just a quick math shows these 34 homes as listed are about 24 mil with average price of 715K, I cannot see these prices selling soon, no bidding wars here. I can bet a lot of these listings will be around for a long time. Looks like the end is near and everyone is rushing the exit.”
In fact, here’s a listing which finally sold in the past week, after a withering 113 days on the market: The McMansion stated off at $725,000 – after just missing the February/March frenzy – was last listed at $619,000 and finally found a buyer at $603,000. That’s a 17% drop in price over three months, and it looks like the sellers were lucky to get out.
The lessons?
- The correction’s arrived. This is not a localized phenom. Everywhere that prices exceed the grasp of average families living there, they will go down. It’s not different anywhere, which certainly includes Calgary, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, the GTA and everywhere in BC that people outnumber moose.
- Immigrants won’t save the market. They’re having a hard enough time saving themselves. Not the Chinese, Iranians, Indians or Americans. Global demand for Canadian real estate is an insignificant factor. If it were otherwise, don’t you think the real estate industry would have generated some stats proving it? There are none. This is why.
- It all just gets worse as new rule changes click in. Twenty-five year mortgage maximums have been with us for one week. Cash-back loans still exist. Million-dollar houses are still closing with CMHC insurance. Borrowing standards are still lax. And half the country is completely unaware houses are now less affordable. Just wait.
- If you can’t sell, you’ve got the wrong price. Waiting for the market to come back is futile. It won’t happen. Buyers have slipped to the sidelines because they no longer qualify, or they know where this is headed. Why would anyone close a deal today when the same property, or better, will cost less in a year?
- So, don’t buy yet. A Brampton McMansion might be 16% cheaper than it was in the Spring, but it’ll cost 15% less again by Christmas. How long the slide will last, or how slow the trip back is unknown. The last time GTA prices tanked, peak-to-trough-to-recovery was 14 years.
Did I mention how flipped-out happy Brenda is?
246 comments ↓
1. This place is claming a 5.19% cap rate.
Cost is about $400,000 per each of the 6 units.
I suspect, closing costs, two land transfer taxes, and maintainence on this old building will make it not a worthwhile venture.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12055378&PidKey=-2085755306
2. High rollers only, lol
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Very little evidence of a correction on the west side of Vancouver. There are no decent two bedroom condos for under half a million dollars. Fifteen percent off half a million is still unaffordable for most people.
Sales first, prices soon. — Garth
OTTAWA — About 280,000 would-be immigrants, stuck on a waiting list of people who applied to come to Canada more than four years ago, were told as a result of the recently passed federal budget to start the process from scratch.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/line+Potential+immigrants+have+lost+their+place+queue+tell+their/6937506/story.html
Good for Brenda.
It is better to get out a year too early and miss the last push to the top, than try to get out a day too late and realize that you can’t escape.
A new report says arcane rules are keeping MPs in the dark about the billions in government spending they should be scrutinizing.
Members of Parliament receive conflicting, outdated information about how billions of tax dollars are being spent each year, and get little opportunity to review fiscal plans.
Just this spring, not a single House of Commons committee was able to report on its examination of some proposed spending because the information arrived too late — and the session clock ran out.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/07/15/parliament-mp-costs.html?cmp=rss
How right you are about the general population starting to take notice. The other day a younger fellow I work with stated he has heard a market crash is coming within the next two years and him and his wife are going to wait it out! I just about fell over. Sentiment has most definitely changed, I live in B.C. southern interior
Will we see panicing boomers all try to sell at once to fund their retirement plans?
Awesome!
In my little burg, there are over 400 listings, and, we are nowhere near as big as Brampton.
Huge variance in pricing also! Over 400K, down to 250K, within blocks of each other!
I live in the next area over, Vaughan. McMansion in both cities, but on each borders are cheaply built semis, townhouses and this odd crass building idea of a 3level complex with cheap stores at bottom, stacked townhouses on top. Many units sit empty.
Highway 50 separates the cities. Gridlocked with tractor trailers, dump trucks and now minivans. A nightmare of congestion and unsafe driving conditions.
It looks like hell on earth…scorched earth. No trees,, flat, dusty with row after row of the same structures, that go for kilometers.
There are elderly IndoCdns walking the roadside to get to a No Frills…there is no sidewalks . Trucks passing within feet of them.
And the developers were selling the townhouses in the mid $400k.
It’s sickening.
and…. Garth didn’t even bother to mention much about interest rates moving higher (soon??). For those of you who think this will not happen, think back to how surprised you were recently when the changes to the mortgage rules were suddenly announced.
Let’s not make this a discussion about rates. This market is going down without rates moving higher, heck, it was headed downward without the recent changes to the mortgage rules.
Would love to hear your perspective on the following situation – probably not as rare as it might seem. No mortgate, large two story home worth about $775K in Oakville. Want to “downsize” to a loft bungalow in the same area (i.e., Oakville/Burlington), that is probably worth +/-$900K. Don’t really want to deal with the inconvenience of renting. So what we’re really talking about is the value of the gap between selling and buying. Do we wait, or does the gap stay about the same when prices fall?
Sell for $775K, less commission, and buy for $900K plus closing costs? How is spending $182,000 more in after-tax dollars to move within the same community ‘downsizing’? Just curious. — Garth
As they say on the billboards near the Airport “all roads lead to Brampton”…. Which also means all roads lead from Brampton.
However, I’d think Brampton has a few more things going for it:
1) prices never got all that high (there are very few $600k+ homes like the ones highlighted here)
2) India is slowing, but RE prices have been booming… Delhi area rose 20%+ last year. So, maybe there is a little bit of “HEAM” (Hot East Asian Money) helping out.
3) they may finally decide to legalize basement suites – lots of potential rental income out there.
Suddenly lots of similar realtor quotes in Victoria MLS®: 302645, “Sellers Loss Your Gain, Selling for less than purchase price. This HUGE Character home has 2 mortgage helpers to make this an affordable downtown option… “
Analysis: A cooling Canadian housing market still poses risks
Reuters – 19 minutes ago
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-cooling-canadian-housing-market-210921428.html
Checked the weekly RE rags on the North Shore(where the streets are paved with gold) and lots of new reduced prices, more and more RE agents starting to adverti$e in black and white not color.
Garth, will multi unit income properties also lose value in the upcoming decline?
Not if the cash flows. — Garth
#10 GTA Girl
Vaughan could be one of the most vulnerable areas in the coming years. Lots of immigrants mixed with middle class Italians highly concentrated in real estate and construction related jobs could be disastrous.
HIM: Hot Indo money? ;-)
This weblog is always right. On time.
The whole world’s in synch. Sometimes ya just gotta plug in.
Yet we were told:
“Turn on, tune in, drop out” ?
JOBS ARE COMING BACK !,
that should push the Toronto market 82% higher over the next 12 months.
I took Garth’s advice and bought in the States, but now I want to prepare myself for eventually buying here in Canada too.
I’m asking all of Garth’s informed readers out there if they know of a realtor in Whistler, B.C. that only deals with foreclosed properties. If so could you post their contact info, so I can contact them. Again only looking for foreclosed properties in Whistler, not Pemberton or Squamish.
I’m will not buy yet; will wait as Garth suggests (even if it takes years), but just want to have my ducks in a row when I’m ready.
So, any help in tracking down a reliable realtor in Whistler that deals with foreclosed houses would be greatly appreciated.
Still waiting on the sidelines to buy (Abbotsford BC. )Some of the places that are listed out here should be bulldozed, yet , somehow the owners have been told that their place is worth 5-$600,000 . I wonder where these people get that from . Realturds are the most dispicable people out there . Had one agent that wanted to include a clause on any purchase agreenment that stated that he was to recieve a guaranteed 3% commission on a dual agent deal and at the same time he was assuring me that he was looking out for my interests . Tired of the overpriced houses and the lying , BSing Realturds . When a $375000 house is listed for $600,000 NO WAY. When it drops back down to it’s actual price then I’ll buy.
Prices in Brampton are falling because the Indian / Pakistani population are going back home to where the jobs are. They were talking about this phenomena at work, with one gentleman very unhappy about losing his friends.
immigrants have been packing into canada for years…
and who can blame them…when they can get a virtually free house?
if/when these families go bust…they can just pack up shop and move home.
for those people who want to blame immigrants for everything…try blaming the government policy makers first.
Interesting Point Grey Vancouver statistics, a bastion of HAM.
Units listed
May 2011-30 May 2012-44 + 31.8%
Units sold
May 2011-32 May 2012-15 -113.3%
Units lisited
June 2011-39 June 2012-39 +9.3%
Units sold
June 2011-22 June 2012-8 -175%
“overall conditions have tended in favour of buyers in our marketplacein recent months”, Eugene Klein, REBGV president said.
Well they sure not favouring sellers.
GArth, keep your eye on this metric. I’ve been watching downtown Toronto 75K – 200K (C1 on MLS) since 2008 – the 75K number factors out parking spots.
After the meltdown those listings peaked at about 23-24. Since then it has been a steady 5 or 8 listings, Mostly those tiny 1 King East “Hotel Suites”. Today there are 13 listings, seven of them at 1 King.
While discussing this with a friend in the financial market, he acknowledged that if that number gets up to 40, things are going south.
To #13 T.O. Bubble Boy:
India doesn’t look so good anymore: “Mumbai, June 15: Real estate research firm PropEquity said new home sales in Mumbai and NCR dropped over 50 per cent in Q1 of this calendar year. ”
Source here: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article3532857.ece
34 homes in 1.2 sq KM, that’s nothing, try 46 condos in 150 metres on 1.5 blocks.
I live at ground zero for condos in TO and that’s what MLS shows for sale.
6 months ago it was 29 listings.
My spidey-senses tell me this will only get worse …
and not end well.
Ah, the smell of tikka masala in the morning.
Houses in Mississauga there aren’t very many listings. It will take people time to get ready to list. Condos are different in that they are smaller and easier to get ready. It will take a couple of months to determine the inventory.
#10 GTA Girl
Watch out for those homes in Vaughan without insulation in the attic. How do you forget to put insulation in the attic? The inspector didn’t seem to think it mattered.
http://www.yorkregion.com/news/article/1398457–vaughan-man-sues-city-contractor
#27 Uki
India looks great if you’re holding Canadian dollars. http://postimage.org/image/5xgeyy0fp/
Good’ deal buddy.
You are wrong Garth! There is a Starbucks in Chapters! Lol
There are rumors of possible legalization of basement apartments in Brampton. Does it mean that safety and health regulations won’t apply any more ? I don’t think so . It will create demand for retrofitting which cost a lot in many cases and leave landlords with less money in the pocket. Also it will involve Revenue Canada as a possible outcome cutting even more from profits.
It will get ugly…Very UGLY
Here in Metro Vancouver, the Caucasian builder is practically extinct.
The South Asians are literally into everything residential except Hi-Rise.
The crews, from Excavation up to Finishing are almost always South Asian.
In SFH…you will see teenagers up to old men working on site.
However, I don’t think they have a good grasp of economics….and a lot will be stuck with units they can’t sell…I already see it happening.
I think the South Asian community will be hit pretty hard
when this RE house of cards collapses, many of them make their livelihoods on it..
don,t worry everybody when the banks see things aren,t sell they will just lower there rates and homes will start selling and prices climbing …god bless
Vaughn and Brampton are the slums of the future. Those who don’t need to park 3 cabs on the front lawn or pack 12 people into a house to make the mortgage payment will not be investing their RE dollars in either place.
One person for every 250sf. or less. It is all an illusion of prosperity and well being. Big homes divided up into tiny apartments. Condos are the same thing on a larger scale.
Brampton, Vaughn and T.O. all represent huge failures of their municipal governments to set or enforce any reasonable standards. It is really pretty basic. Vote for crap, get crap as these communities will soon see.
[…]on the west side of Vancouver. There are no decent two bedroom condos for under half a million dollars. Fifteen percent off half a million is still unaffordable for most people.
15% off 500k is 425k. Assuming a DP of 10% and closing costs covered, mortgage is 383k. @3.29/25, that’s $1,870/mo. Median Vancouver family income is about $67k. With taxes and fees, GDSR is a squeaker, but then you’re talking about a rich enclave in a metropolitan area, rather than the whole area. Prices are coming down, but they’re not coming to the point where the only thing keeping the majority of families out of rich enclaves is personal choice.
Want to “downsize” to a loft bungalow
FYI your arthritic knees and hips aren’t going to give a crap whether the builder sold it to you as a “loft bungalow” or what we used to call it in the old days… a 1 1/2 storey house.
#34 – Hoof-Hearted,
Too true about the crews building houses!! Even out here, in the valley, you can see it happening. Nothing against other ethnicities doing the building, but, I do wonder about their qualifications. There is enough to wonder about regarding material quality, design quality, monitoring, and proper inspections.
I would be willing to bet that a house built years ago, may actually be better quality than one built today!?
Analysis: A cooling Canadian housing market still poses risks
“(Reuters) – For the first time in three years, Toronto’s sizzling housing market is showing signs of cooling, bringing a sigh of relief to David Fleming and other Canadian real estate agents who feared the market boom was getting out of control.” HaHaHaHaHAHAHAHHAHHHAAAAA…..got a good laugh out of that one – RE agents fearing the market was getting out of control. That’s like saying saying that a school of great white sharks had suddenly grown fearful of the smell of blood…
About 18 months ago I commented on this pathetic blog that ground zero for the GTA would be Brampton. Being of a certain ethnic persuasion I completely understand the mentality, and how flawed it is! And most immigrants from that part of the world come here broker than the the majority of Real Estate Brokers will be soon. There is a significant different between HAM from China and Spam from India…
Now we await the day that Garth will embrace gold as the Federal Reserve is set to do and make it a Tier 1 asset class (should be a few levels above Tier 1 but hey it’s a start!). This has been reported on Reuters and several mainstream newspapers.
Gold to Be Reclassified in the U.S.
“The central bank in the U.S.—the Federal Reserve—has recently released a memo to possibly change the status of gold bullion in this country,” reports Lombardi.
The Profit Confidential lead contributor believes it is significant that the U.S. is proposing to reclassify gold bullion as a zero-risk asset by as early as January 1, 2013. “This means that gold bullion will join the very short list of assets considered zero-risk by the Federal Reserve: U.S. Treasuries; the U.S. dollar; and assets and/or claims with the International Monetary Fund,” he says.
You quote the publisher of a for-profit, gold-pumping newsletter as a credible source? You guys are more desperate than I thought. — Garth
Well done. Clarity and simplicity the ultimate expression of truth.
Verizon Wants the “Freedom” to Edit Your Internet
Truth-Out – 2 days ago
Verizon Wants the “Freedom” to Edit Your Internet. Friday, 13 … Verizon, per the court document, considers itself your Internet editor. Or
remember this
Merck published fake journal
Posted by Bob Grant
[Entry posted at 30th April 2009 04:27 PM GMT]
View comments(31) | Comment on this news story
Read more: Merck published fake journal – The Scientist – Magazine of the Life Sciences http://www.the-scientist.com/blog/display/55671/#ixzz20jtcrWrG
Merck paid an undisclosed sum to Elsevier to produce several volumes of a publication that had the look of a peer-reviewed medical journal, but contained only reprinted or summarized articles–most of which presented data favorable to Merck products–that appeared to act solely as marketing tools with no disclosure of company sponsorship
Read more: Merck published fake journal – The Scientist – Magazine of the Life Sciences http://www.the-scientist.com/blog/display/55671/#ixzz20jtlv1hq
http://blog.thecostofknowledge.com/?p=31#comments
Trouble for Elsevier, the Leading Academic Publisher
Friday, February 17, 2012
Late last month, a Cambridge Mathematician wrote a blog post that launched a massive boycott of the largest publisher of academic journals in the world. The boycott, now more than 6,000 academics strong, has ignited a discussion over the cost of, and access to, information published by academics. Rick Karr reports on rising discontent with the current academic publishing model.
Free access to scientific research
Government unveils plan to make publicly funded scientific research available at no cost by 2014
The government is to unveil controversial plans to make publicly funded scientific research immediately available for anyone to read for free by 2014, in the most radical shakeup of academic publishing since the invention of the internet.
Under the scheme, research papers that describe work paid for by the British taxpayer will be free online for universities, companies and individuals to use for any purpose, wherever they are in the world.
…”If the taxpayer has paid for this research to happen, that work shouldn’t be put behind a paywall before a British citizen can read it,” Willetts said.
another funny Realtor quote in Victoria MLS®: 308509: “$20,000.00 Decorating Allowance offered by the Seller!!! Walk to Oak Bay Golf course & UVic from this very well cared for 1980 home… “
Canada, Norway, Australia. Three examples of near identical hubris & arrogance on the part of government. Now all three get to see a near identical collapse. Such a waste, all three were in a position of strength during the ’08 crisis. Now who can tell what the future holds – austerity, debt & broken lives seem the most likely.
Asset bubbles over correct to the downside, its their nature. There is no logic to a correction, only fear. If fear is high enough assets will sell for pennies on the dollar, trying to pick a bottom is just catching a falling knife. Fear & greed drives a bubble, we’ve had the greed now get ready for the fear.
DELETED
@#35gloom and doom
——————————————————————
Lower the rates to where??? -2%???
And that has just worked beautifully in the US hasn’t it? Or maybe you’re laying the sarcasm on pretty thick.
Five months ago when a north Brampton McMansion on a faux country cul-de-sac came to market, it was chaos.
don’t tell Tony! Tony and I used to play soccer at Birchmount Stadium. Anyways Tony said that Brampton would hold up after 416 crashed and burned. Wonder if Tony can still run.
Canadian Watchdog: Vaughan could be one of the most vulnerable areas in the coming years.
careful your talking famiglia
Here’s a thought, if money is a commodity, and there is is a veritable ocean of it out there (with governments showing that they are ready to print more oceans of it) wouldn’t the laws of supply and demand say – that interest rates will not go up
As far as the housing market goes, irrelevant. — Garth
@ 31 Maxamillion:
Watch out for those homes in Vaughan without insulation in the attic. How do you forget to put insulation in the attic? The inspector didn’t seem to think it mattered.
http://www.yorkregion.com/news/article/1398457–vaughan-man-sues-city-contractor
——————————-
I read that article and was impressed by the inaction of the owner. He complains about heat loss in the winter and roasting temperatures up there in the summer. Well dude – go to Home Depot and buy a bunch of R20 batts and put em up there. Sort out the lawsuit farther down the road, but FFS get off your whining ass and do some work. You are a home owner aren’t you? Or do you prefer to to just keep it the way it is and complain?
Tell you another lesson from your example Garth. That 725 to 619 drop doesn’t register as % decrease in the stats since as we can see in the screen grab they list 97% asking in these cases. Meaning, once again the frankenumber wachamacallit sucker’s index doesn’t show these 725 to 603 drops. It’s just a mild 3% below asking before they iron it out completely from the reported stats.
At #13 T.O. Bubble Boy
1) prices never got all that high (there are very few $600k+ homes like the ones highlighted here)
Prices never got high for a reason. Brampton sucks and no one wants to live there. It is the only community Mattamy shells out thousands of cash/upgrade incentives to wooh people there. That said, the Indian community dominate sales and lift the “higher end” Brampton market so much it will affect the overall averages going forward. Not to mention the number of “sub-prime” loans YES sub-prime loans to many homeowners in the Heart Lake area. There were many families from low income housing/projects in Toronto that were “encouraged” to settle in that part of Brampton with 1% teaser rates that are resetting.
2) India is slowing, but RE prices have been booming… Delhi area rose 20%+ last year. So, maybe there is a little bit of “HEAM” (Hot East Asian Money) helping out.
Yes. It is slowing. Have you ever heard of a term called repatriation. Same thing is happening in China which is why any HAM that was in Vancouver is now gone. South Asians could care less about Brampton. They are nomads. They will leave quicker than they got there and leave a gaping real estate hole.
3) they may finally decide to legalize basement suites – lots of potential rental income out there.
Are you kidding me?!? You’ve obviously never been to Brampton. You can’t swing a dead cat without it landing in a basement suite.
How times change.
Back when I moved to Brampton the only colour was white, and a foriegner was the new Portugese on the next block.
There where just two Chinese families in the town running the two Chinese resteraunts. One on Main and one on George St.
Brampton High was the only High School and Eldomar Hights was the only subdivision in the township.
Population 9500.
I am soooooooo glad to be out of there.
Today I went fishing again and cought two nice trout in the lake just 15 m. from my house.
Walking.
Al in lotus land
That sounds ugly. — Garth
#45 45north
La Gomorrah is not in the home building business.
http://www.theprovince.com/life/seniors+became+fastest+growing+group+debtors/6936680/story.html#ixzz20joZteWe
I called an agent to see a listed on MLS apartment. We went first to the “lockbox area”. There were, according to the number of lockboxes, 18 apartments for sale and only 3 were listed on MLS. The RE agents don’t want to flood MLS with listings. The RE market is manipulated.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12024480&PidKey=1500149044
Surrey, BC.
You could have written the above article and just changed Brampton to Surrey and it would have still been 100% demographically accurate.
Eight (8) bedrooms & six (6) bathrooms.
Grandparents & parents & kids all under one roof.
Like the old expression goes “We can all hang together or we can all hang seperately” is very true.
Many of these immigrants are much smarter than many white Canadians … you get 4 (or more) full time incomes coming into one house and you get the mortgage paid off within ten years.
If one person loses their jobs it does not matter and it’s very unlikely all income earners will all lose their jobs at the same time.
Lets assume 5 income earners and one person loses their job … income goes down 20%.
Now lets assume two income earners and one person loses their job … income goes down 50% .. big problem.
With one income earner … 100% loss of income.
Odds of default in these immigrant households is almost zero.
Wow…the fires in the GTA are going crazy as people lite up their homes before they go bankrupt in this current housing crash.
———————————————————-
Fire Damages Multi-Million Dollar Home In Pickering
Toronto/AM640 News
7/15/2012
A fire has destroyed a multi-million dollar home in Pickering.
Fire crews responded to a call around 7pm yesterday.
Police say the home caught fire from a backyard barbecue and the flames quickly spread to the house.
All the people in the home got out safely.
Damage is estimated to be around 1-million dollars
———————————————————
The housing crash has just got started and there have been multiple fires in the GTA every week. Keep your eye on the news for many many more `fires“ as people who can not sell and about to go bankrupt burn their homes down. It`s going to be a nasty housing crash.
Maybe the BBQ just caught fire. — Garth
Four new condominium developments here in Richmond Hill, with more than 1000 units. All of them in narrow spaces, I could not even imagine! Is this a sign of healthy RE, or what?
#10 GTA girl.
You took the words right out of my mouth.
I’m sure we know each other.
#21 Took Garth’s advice and bought in the States on 07.15.12 at 6:21 pm
Why? The melt’s next leg is just now beginning. And Whistler taxes, although held this year, have and will continue their skyrocketing ways.
44 Cato – I take it that it’s Norways consumer debt that you are referring too. I heard it is now approaching 200% of ave income.
Interesting that Norway has a giant sovereign wealth fund from it oil royalties. Smart move not to give it away.
I recall an article in the NYT where some Norwegian officials were warning their citizens years ago about “oil for leisure”. You have to wonder if the average
Norwegian has no worries due to a large public safety
net, if that discourages saving thereby encouraging
debt .
Honey, there’s something wrong with the house. Let’s just move into the backyard and let it rot.
That smart guy spent 200$ on a tent so that he can live in his backyard rather than spend 1000$ to get someone to shoot some insulation in his attic. What a dummy.
#18 Canadian Watchdog.
Bang on.
The religion of real estate west of Keele st (Maple) all the way to Brampton ( Woodbridge obviously in between) alive and thriving.
#48IM in C
..if money is a commodity..
There are many interest rates. Not one. But in general you are right – more money out there less that rates are. Solvency is the issue, not liquidity.
A buddy of mine sent me a link to an article in the financialpost, the essence of which was a bash on the financial markets.. “investor beware”.
So I took the time to read through the post and there were several on the housing bubble and how real estate was cooked in Canada.
This buddy has perhaps 20% or less of his net worth invested in mutual funds and etf’s etc. and owns his condo that he lives in and three other rental condo properties, all cash flow negative.
No concern over the RE market just his mutual funds.
Yes, he is Italian.
#31 Maxamillion on 07.15.12 at 7:28 pm
#10 GTA Girl
Watch out for those homes in Vaughan without insulation in the attic. How do you forget to put insulation in the attic? The inspector didn’t seem to think it mattered.
http://www.yorkregion.com/news/article/1398457–vaughan-man-sues-city-contractor
Funny, I have a friend that purchased a home from that exact same builder.
copper pipe burst in his basement on two ocassions from inadequate insulation.
It’s also disturbing to see developers slap condos up in Vaughn by the dozen. If the city of Vaughn truly cared about its future it would put a freez on any more condo development.
Too many hack builders trying to squeez the blood out of people by selling a overvalued concreat square.
2bed 2bath selling for 450,000$………….Starting price mind you.
MLS number indicated for the house in Brampton is not valid, doesn’t work for MLS.ca ( # W2315666).
Is that not real house????
It sold. Duh. — Garth
Ret on 07.15.12 at 8:01 pm Vaughn and Brampton are the slums of the future. Those who don’t need to park 3 cabs on the front lawn or pack 12 people into a house to make the mortgage payment will not be investing their RE dollars in either place
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Brampton and Vaughn are the future slums . Brampton has alot of crime which will get worse . Alot of sub-prime loans were the only reason how brampton was built and that overflow of those sub-prime mortgages went into Vaughn. The smart money left Vaughn .
You know what’s awesome about Brampton RE? Not the McMansions, but the old slanted-roof siding huts near Bramalea City Centre and the Chrysler plant:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12170838&PidKey=660978137
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12014509&PidKey=263632729
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12063414&PidKey=-917171426
Ok, they are basically the equivalent of school portables, but they are under $300k!
Maxamillion: Watch out for those homes in Vaughan without insulation in the attic.
installing insulation in the attic can be one of the worst jobs ever. Which is why you would pay for a house inspection.
#39 Min in Mission on 07.15.12 at 8:21 pm
I won’t get into the quality issue..more the economic- cultural aspects. aka A lot of leaky condos were built by NON South -Asian crews.
Anecdote:
My weekly travels have had my eye on a duplex unit that was built and finished a YEAR ago(I kid you not) by a South Asian builder. It has been “For Sale” for a solid year(Richmond BC)….and this is before the bubble burst.
My guess is the builder was stubborn or overpriced.
Anyway…last week I saw a sign that said “SOLD” for one side and then a moving truck parked in front of one side of the duplex.
As I drove by, as suspected a South Asian family was moving in…and the other 1/2 of the duplex had a sign “priced reduced”.
IMHO, the builder realized the market tanked,..got too greedy…is moving into 1/2 duplex with a charade of “SOLD” . What this usually means is they sold their current home….and are trying to ride the market out hoping that the other 1/2 of the duplex will sell.
I foresee much grief in the future.
…”For those unaware of life where there are no Starbucks, Vespas or halter tops, Brampton may surprise you.”… Hon. GT
No halter tops!??? Shocking!
However, if the rumours are to be believed… Brampton’s cultural milieu affords a superior alternative…
http://tinyurl.com/8yoolg3
I’ve been checking out comfree.com the last couple days and noticed a couple of things.
1. Tons of listings on this site, many of which I assume are not listed on the mls system. So when you look at all those red dots on mls, there may actually be many more homes for sale that are listed privately.
2. It is striking to see how much better homes are marketed on sites like comfree and propertyguys.ca, compared to mls.ca/realtor.ca. With all the thousands of dollars a realtor makes for “selling” a house, and yet the mls is still stuck with a site that hasn’t changed in 10 years. There is simply no comparison to browsing for homes on the privately-listed sites and mls. In fact, realtors often post only 1 or 2 pics, in some cases one of the pics will be of washer/dryer!? And no picture of the outside of the home or vice versa! Also mls doesn’t have comments on the pics, so you can’t tell which pic is of which room specifically in the home.
I’ve said it before, I think many, many people are going to resort to not using realtors, especially when that large commission represents more than what many people put down on their house when they bought it. Better to save the commission and list your condo at $10,000 cheaper than the guy using a realtor next door.
Wouldn’t want to be a realtor in Canada for the next, well, ever.
# 12 In Oakville
Blog post of the year so far. Can’t cure stupid.
#19 TurnerNation
The whole world’s in synch. Sometimes ya just gotta plug in.
Yet we were told:
“Turn on, tune in, drop out” ?
– — –
Did you ever read any of his stuff? He’s an interesting character. Was in my teens when I first read one of his books, and then one more a few years later. But counterculture appealed to me at the time. I’m sure I’ve outgrown it by now. ☺
South Asian immigrants make up about one third of Brampton?
LOL sure, maybe fifteen years ago.
Try two thirds. And that’s not counting the unending sea of “tenants” living in illegal DIY basement apartments, converted garages, and (I’m not kidding) yard sheds.
The Bramptonization of Milton is now beginning.
City stats show the South Asian community is 31.2% of the urban population. — Garth
If it’s brand new homes in that area of Brampton (wasn’t clear from the article), it’s guaranteed to be flippers rather than the financially troubled. I’m a South Asian and I can tell you flipping is seen as easy money in my community. The same thing happened in Milton past few years.
The other possibility is air traffic. Yes, that area is 5km north of Pearson Airport, but that doesn’t necessarily insulate it from noise pollution – The route taken out of the airport may still head that way. And if it’s a relatively new locality, maybe the noise pollution wasn’t part of the builders marketing literature – Let alone the city having signs warning of it!
Look at the realtors on this blog posting in a panic. Newsflash for you realtors that say Brampton will not crash because of 5 incomes to pay the mortgage. These 5 incomes are low paying jobs and they are one missed pay check away from going bankrupt. BTW power of sales in Brampton are shooting through the roof but that shouldn’t be possible with your stupid logic. The housing crash is going to get very nasty. Out of work realtors keep posting in a PANIC!
#62 CalgaryRocks — Bang on comment!
It makes you wonder if the guy’s water-pipe broke, would he shut off the water and call a plumber? Or, would he just move out into the backyard and file a lawsuit while the house filled up with water?
There is a similar area of McMansions just starting to be built in Montreal / Saint-Laurent. On Google maps at http://tinyurl.com/7zafwtz , check the terrain of “Golf le Challenger”. This entire 18 hole course was taken over by a developer early this year, closed off and is now a moon landscape with massive construction vehicles preparing the ground for dozens of McMansions. Every time I drive past this area, I laugh in my head, wondering if they will ever finish construction under the current circumstances. There are already hundreds of those houses just next to the golf course, where apparently some guy even paid $1M just to be situated right next to the course, haha.
TO Bubble Boy: normally I agree with most of all your posts. The one on Brampton I disagree.
North Brampton is the worst example of sprawl that sold in the high $800ks. McMansions sit near Castlefield rd. on 40/50 ft lots. With every trick of granite/stainless stel bauble inside. Across the soon to be expanded road are acres and acres of flat farmland owned by developers pushing hard for zoning. Over on Mjr Mac/50 in what one developer calls Kleinburg ( not!) they intend 4 condos 10 stories each with row after row of towns and semis.
The market will be flooded. It’s a planning nightmare of biblical proportions. All wait to cash in tat the 427 highway will be built north. When the province and York region are so in debt?
I’m hoping it all goes belly up. Unsustainable with no employment centre except for warehouses/industry on
Steeles. A cultural wasteland. Where the most titillation of stimulation will be the donut shop drive thru, and 4 WalMarts in a 10km stretch.
Brampton will fall hard.
Oh a post about Brampton lol… as a Canadian with Indian roots, it sickens me to see how apple picking farms have been destroyed to put up ugly town houses that won’t last for 5 decades, for people that come here to live off the system.
Why do you think you see so many elderly Indians in Brampton? Bring them over and in 10 years we got 2 steady OAS checks coming in to pay for the mortgage! Hope all of the new comers that keep complaining about this country put their money where their mouth is and head to the airport when SHTF.
It’s a privilege to be here and Brampton is full of people who don’t see it that way. Sorry for the rant, had to get it out of my system.
Full OAS ($527/month) requires 40 years of residence in Canada after age 18, with no contributions made by the taxpayer. Partial payment is available only to those who live here 10 years after age 18. The average OAS received by an elderly immigrant residing in the country more than a decade is slightly over $150 monthly. Not a huge mortgage buster. — Garth
Neo #51 Prices never got high for a reason. Brampton sucks and no one wants to live there. It is the only community Mattamy shells out thousands of cash/upgrade incentives to wooh people there. That said, the Indian community dominate sales and lift the “higher end” Brampton market so much it will affect the overall averages going forward. Not to mention the number of “sub-prime” loans YES sub-prime loans to many homeowners in the Heart Lake area. There were many families from low income housing/projects in Toronto that were “encouraged” to settle in that part of Brampton with 1% teaser rates that are resetting
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There are many foreclosures now in Brampton and I know of one family who are on the brink of financial ruin and if they do not sell they will be bankrupt. It’s sad but sub-prime loans tend to end this way. Brampton could become a ghost town when the crash is over. Either that or a ghetto.
Yes, I know the story of the insulation/builder scam in Vaughan…but let’s not forget the concrete problem of a few years ago. More than a few builders got their concrete from the fraudsters. One home builder changed there name and all ties w/former alias because of a lawsuit by a few homeowners w/decaying concrete footings and basements. A whole swath of homes in Maple will start showing serious structural problems in next 2years .
#159 Westernman on 07.15.12 at 3:04 pm
“…All topped up on your magic medications…your drug-addled opinion…is completely without merit”
I last used drugs seven years ago.
Nice try though, loser.
John
Has anyone noticed how many forsale by ower signs are up? Has anyone else noticed that? In a crashing market which I think we are in is the only time you need MLS exposure.
#72 – Hoof-Hearted
Yes, you are correct. Many of our leaky condos were built by “non south-asian” crews. And, many of the crews that were doing the repairs were a combination of many.
As a matter of interest, I worked on one condo restore that had pretty much every group you could name working there. It was very interesting and informative. In that case we actually had an “inspecting engineer” on site to monitor progress.
I agree with your duplex example. I have seen similar out here.
I do believe that there is going to be a lot of “tension and stress” in peoples lives going forward.
Took me three hours on the Canada Day weekend to ride a motorcycle on the 400 stretch from Vaughan to Barrie (72 km) on the way up North. Figured it’s because there’s about 450k and change living in that corridor using the same road as when about a third as many people lived there 20 years ago. Visited my uncle in Brampton last summer and remember the sign said 472000. Hop presto on the way back from the cottage 1 year later it says 527000. I don’t know who to be madder at: the politicians and planners with their heads so far in the sand they’re catching whiffs of lava, or every new immigrant or eighth generation, I don’t care, who thinks it’s their god given right to live in these awful McMansions. That western half of 905 is a house of cards in every sense, and to boot it’s so hideous that future generations will wonder what the attraction was to begin with.
“…and everywhere in BC that people outnumber moose”
Add that to the Greatest Hits
#74 blase on 07.15.12 at 10:08 pm
I’ve been checking out comfree.com the last couple days and noticed a couple of things.
1. Tons of listings on this site, many of which I assume are not listed on the mls system. So when you look at all those red dots on mls, there may actually be many more homes for sale that are listed privately.
2. It is striking to see how much better homes are marketed on sites like comfree and propertyguys.ca, compared to mls.ca/realtor.ca. With all the thousands of dollars a realtor makes for “selling” a house, and yet the mls is still stuck with a site that hasn’t changed in 10 years. [snip]
——————
Yeah, my house was sold on Comfree before I got the chance to put the listing up on MLS. Saved myself $300 +GST. So because no MLS, I assume it never made it into the stats for July sales.
It really bugs me that some realtors post one lousy picture and expect to sell the house and make 5% of the selling price. And some of the ones who post multiple pictures look like they were taken by a 10-year old. One of the reasons I was not going to pay some turkey $3,000/hr to sell my house. If it was $300/hr and they were actually much better than me at marketing… then you can build a case!
#77 Kris
“If it’s brand new homes in that area of Brampton (wasn’t clear from the article), it’s guaranteed to be flippers rather than the financially troubled.”
Kris ….. flippers WILL BE the financially troubled very soon. Most can barely scrape the minimums dogether and can’t afford to (and have no intention to) own those places ….. and forget renting them and covering the costs. Ain’t gunna happen. Not even close.
I agree with Garth’s comment about how long these cycles take to pass through …. I know a fairly well regarded real estate person in my area who told me “yes! ….there WILL be a correction ………. a 10% dip that will last 10 to 12 months and then it’ll all come back” ….. I stood there with my jaw hanging open. The correction in the early 80’s took 7-8 years …… then the 1989 correction that took the 14+years you mention in this article. I don’t know how many boomers are going to be able to tough-out this next correction period. Sitting in low to negative equity is going to be tough as ones age ticks into their 60’s. It’s sad to say (and not reported much) …. but a friend of mine who travels to (and has ties with) Ireland …. mentioned that depression and suicides there are way up the last year since the sh!t hit the fan there.
I think new simpler life styles and people turning the dial from 11 back to 6 or 7 is going to have to take place for a great number of Canadians …… and that’s ok. Heavily leveraged mass consumption has it’s own built-in self destruct mechanism …. and many have found it. Reduce or get rid of dept and simplify …. and start real living.
Today I went fishing again and cought two nice trout in the lake just 15 m. from my house.
Walking.
Al in lotus land
That sounds ugly. — Garth
Ya! but I’m Tough and can handle stress.
Al
That was not the ugly part. — Garth
Oh, and my wife is beautiful and young too.
#70 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.15.12 at 9:42 pm
You know what’s awesome about Brampton RE? Not the McMansions, but the old slanted-roof siding huts near Bramalea City Centre and the Chrysler plant:
…
Ok, they are basically the equivalent of school portables, but they are under $300k!
————–
There are better houses in Windsor for around $70,000. Only thing in common is both are near a Chrysler plant.
China fudging recent GDP numbers, huge coal surplus, lowering of interest rates, energy usage way below trend: Confucius say’s 1+1+1=4.
Stockton, California (U.S. city that recently went bankrupt) had a Hindu prayer for its fiscal health:
http://www.southasiamail.com/news.php?id=105846
This may be needed in Brampton if they run out of land to sell to developers.
Sorry I thought Brampton was Bill Davies and a bowling green up off Airport Rd , where one has to duck lightening strikes.
Been a long time – is it to become a Yorkville or beach?
The best thing that can happen to Canada is for a major R.E. correction coupled with getting rid of he cons in the next federal election. We should all welcome the needed re-set. People need to learn that living within ones means and that having less means having more, leads to a better quakity of life.
–
“I have never seen anyone so obsessed with a house. Did I mention how flipped-out happy Brenda is?” — That’s sheeples en masse for you. They never learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Shit happens.
*
#42 jess — “Verizon Wants the “Freedom” to Edit Your Internet” — So does FB, eventually Twitter and many others. That’s life in a police state, which is what the west has become, such as here.
#96 TNT — See link to China’s deleveraging.
*
2:20 clip Bohemian Grove, CA where the male elite gather; Temporary Workers don’t need to have ObombaCare, so that’s who employers are hiring; Higher Inflation = Smaller Packs, but the price is still the same; ary, Ind. Ghost town; 3:26 clip The Fourth Reich enjoying luxury, not austerity; Iranian – Cdns. The CPC cutting off its nose to spite its face; Banxters Waging War They should play by the rules, as everyone else does; FB wants a cashless society? Baltimore, Big Banks and Joke of the Day; Neocons Attacking food stamps; Young Entrepreneurs Takes guts; Same as US Docs and nurses in UK now face ‘take a pay cut or be fired’ plan; Money Supply Learn something new everyday; The Young and The Homeless Sure, NAmericas improving . . . not.
China deleveraging, but Chinese stimulation Which is it? Opposite of a sovereign debt crisis; Corn Prices through the roof; Stocks and Economies are like chalk and cheese; Gone Widespread; Seeking Monopolies The world’s elite; 34, mtge. and debt free; Lower growth in GDP.
*
Great one-line description of western govts.; Obomba, the UN and Agenda 21 Giving the UN control of the water, and China ban certain phrases from web searches. Something really strange is happening in the world; Activate the Sound Weapon against uprisings, etc.; Ring of Steel Costs for Owelimpdicks are astronomical; DHS’s Civil War Whose been buying all the ammo, then? US and France pressuring Palestine over Arafat’s murder? I wonder who did it; 1:48 clip Magnetic storms, ‘quakes etc.; Central Germany Worst mouse plague in 30 years; Short Clip Magnesium’s effects on aging brains; One Liners Famous last words; Moving Stuff Whether true or not, sheeple will never know.
Great blog, and I agree with most of the things Garth says.
However, I really, really wish that your website, and many like his… when talking about %declines, don’t use the asking price to selling price comparison. If someone prices their house 10% above market then sells it for 5% below market… that is still a 5% drop, not a 15% drop.
which is not too unlike the real estate agent marketing a house very much below market to create a bidding war. It matters not how much it sold above asking… only how it compares to the rest of the market. i.e. comparables in the neighborhood.
100+ comments already …….. on a Sunday Night ?
C’mon people….. get a L-I-F-E..
Oops…my faux pas
Those BONUS rooms are about to get a lot of use from the heavy pacing of worried sellers with no buyers.
#34 Dimitry
It doesn’t matter too much from money perspective whether the suites are legal or not. If they are legal, sure you pay tax on the rent income, but then you get to deduct as many expenses. But when they are legal, there are lots of other benefits to the community: they are safer (fire separation, insulation, electrical) and can be tracked via things like the census so services can be apportioned by the municipality.
In places where suites are not legal, but people of course put them in anyways and the city turns a blind eye, there are often issues with parking and garbage collection, and even things like transit, water, sewage and electricity can become strained.
Hubby & I rent in Burnaby. Moved in right after long-time tenant moved back to Taiwan. Spoke with a neighbor today. He and his family are moving back to Taiwan, as well. He said it is far better to grow old there compared to Canada, and living expenses are much more affordable. I wonder if this is the start of something??
City stats show the South Asian community is 31.2% of the urban population. — Garth
What the stats say and what the overcrowded schools in the area that base their enrollment on those stats tell a much different story. Robert J. Lee P.S. had 2,000 students at one point. Yes, that’s right 2,000 students in K-8. City stats maxed the school out at 1,000. That is a big issue in Brampton overall.
American companies are scaling back plans to hire workers and a rising share of firms feel the European debt crisis is taking a bite out of their sales, a survey showed on Monday.
Only 23 percent of the firms polled in June plan to add to staff in the next six months, the National Association for Business Economics said on Monday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/16/us-usa-economy-forecasts-idUSBRE86F02K20120716
You mean the second half of the year. I’m shocked!
There is no greater influence on high prices, than high prices themselves.
Those claiming there needs to be a catalyst for price falls, need to read the above again and again until it sinks in.
High prices collapse under their own weight, of course only when the number of greater fools runs out.
Aussie Headlines
Like shortages from other bubbled markets, ours just vanished.
One of the more interesting outcomes the 2011 Census produced was the figures concerning the housing market. The reason for this interest is how the results contrasted with the idea that Australia currently suffers from an acute housing undersupply or shortage. Taking the lead in promoting this idea is the National Housing Supply Council (NHSC), an organisation formed by the federal government in May 2008 to provide an in-depth analysis of the housing market. The NHSC is widely considered to be the peak body in this field.
2011 Census revealed Australia had 7.8 million households, 900,000 lower than the NHSC’s figure, with population also growing by 300,000 less than previously estimated. These figures have come as such a shock that the NHSC chairman has reported that an undersupply could be incorrect. In fact, Morgan Stanley researchers have found that the current 228,000 dwelling undersupply has now become an oversupply of 341,000, a huge turnaround.
http://theconversation.edu.au/beware-the-rent-seeking-organisation-dont-be-dudded-by-housing-data-8112
Trouble selling (flipping) that house, try a bit of TV house porn.
IS YOUR house a TV star just waiting to be discovered?
The LifeStyle Channel’s Logie-winning series Selling Houses Australia is looking for homes to feature on its next series.
http://www.news.com.au/realestate/news/problem-houses-could-be-tv-stars/story-fncq3gat-1226426377853
#31 Maxamillion
Once insulation is put in the attic, municipal inspectors come and approve/pass that stage of the homebuilding process.
Once they leave, the homebuilder takes out the insulation and puts it in the attic of another home that needs a municipal inspection…and so on… That’s why homes in Surrey are so cold…
G-man, I drove around that area mentioned in your post. It was always overpriced. They TRIED to build a community-like neighbourhood in an immigrant area…and priced it at a premium..
A few km southeast of there is much nicer…and less in price. Of course prices have to correct there. Who’s this nutcase GF senior correspondent?? He sounds like a computer technician.
Garth says:
“Full OAS ($527/month) requires 40 years of residence in Canada after age 18, with no contributions made by the taxpayer. Partial payment is available only to those who live here 10 years after age 18. The average OAS received by an elderly immigrant residing in the country more than a decade is slightly over $150 monthly. Not a huge mortgage buster. — Garth”
Why this %# Retort? We all know they get a GIS top up. It doesnt matter…10 years is the same as 40 years. seems likely you’re going to run for office again…its in your blood.
I know it must be fun to dis immigrants, especially low-income earners, but this says more about you than anyone else. — Garth
For those who are hating on South Asians:
Every single family in Brampton from the Punjab area of India owns paid-off RE in India. There are no mortgages there and land prices there are just as high. The people of Brampton are probably of higher net worth than 416ers when global assets are taken into account! Its just that they cant get their money out of India yet…Reserve Bank of India wont allow it. Go try to Buy Rupees here…Good luck!
BPOE has left the room…
he must be confessing his sins
Ah Brampton, I know it well. Cab cars parked everywhere, multi-generational families living under one roof, and picnics that involve obstacle course-like races similar to the ones held in a little country that rhymes “fass-ganna-man”. I hope the political correct side of you, Garth, doesn’t make an appearance on this blog entry. If you can’t be honest about the demographics of Brampton, then don’t bring it up. Personally, I respect the effort that these cats are milking the system. I don’t care if they came over here from Blabastan or Cockerstan and have 50 people living in one house, good on them! Take advantage of the system. No money down on a $500k house, with a 2.99% interest rate over a 40 year term? How can you blame them for taking advantage? The government is practically giving money away! Have the red carpet out on the tarmac at Pearson International. Remember, the only real crime in Canada is being poor.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCadcBR95oU
Who would pay 603 grand for a house in the middle of nowhere on a lot smaller than the size of a postage stamp?
#3 Tim, I basically agree with you re. Vancouver’s West side. Houses are still being snapped up and from Kits up through West Point Grey, the teardown and rebuild frenzy continues apace. I just don’t know that prices for houses will ever come back down in these neighborhoods.
Garth says:
“It’s not different anywhere,..”
Fredericton New Brunswick?
While I recognize the larger centers will see the largest corrections…is a small town like Fredericton going to see a correction as well then (on a much smaller scale?)
The not so thinly veiled racism and xenophobia in the blog comments paints a pretty poor picture of Canadians.
Virtually all of you, your parents, grandparents or other ancestors were immigrants once. You moan about paltry OAS payments to immigrants and never think about the 1/4 section given to your great grandfather, or the forestry rights granted to your great uncle, the mining claim of your great great grandfather, or the development permit secured by a long lost relative to build houses, all on somebody else’s land.
Or was it because your ancestors were ‘white,’ which naturally makes you more deserving and your claim to Canada, it’s land, wealth and resources much more valid than ‘those’ people in Brampton or Surrey.
Embarassing, troubling, quite frankly pathetic.
# 112 Garth to TRT ” it must be fun to dis immigrants especially low income earners but this says more about you than anyone else”
Quite a cop out Garth. I’m sure just about everyone is wondering why 10 years in the country retires you with a $ 150 OAS and GIS supplement, not to mention all the free expensive services ( hospitals) you can devour.
No wonder there shoving 20 people to a home in Brampton.
Welcome to Canada , home of the ‘free’
Because there are not two classes of citizens, as apparently you would wish. — Garth
The post that mentions voters in Vaughan, being responsible for voting in politicians who allow sprawl.
I giggled at this because I’m too tired from crying. Developers have their arms up to their armpit in local politics. They will ‘put up’ 3 candidates in one riding just to ensure that one of ‘their’ people win. Elections here are some of the dirtiest outside of Naples.
The only politician we have right now who is working outside this corrupt system is Regional Councillor, Deb Shulte. Fighting to save the white belt, stop the bad planning, she’s had an effect, but it’s all uphill.
But many worry she’ll step on the wrong toes and get sued. Which is inevitable. That’s the way they shut you up here.
And yes, if housing tanks, so will Vaughan. The city with the most wealth, high amount of Bentley’s, Maseratis. Even the nefarious underground economy will take the hit if housing stumbles….good thing they’re all involved in the drug trade too . That will certainly boom.
Interesting times.
And those above mentioning that certain ‘ name’ (which I refuse to utter) isn’t involved in the home building.
No…it’s concrete, footings, precast etc.
Paving is another group.
Sadly.
@ #120 Bigrider
We need to get rid of family reunification asap.
Bubbles
Notice that this property bubble returned to baseline in a fairly symmetrical fashion, as did the property bubble of 1989.
Well, if those were property bubbles, then what’s this? This housing bubble has no historical precedent and is massively out of proportion to anything we’ve ever experienced before. There is nothing even remotely close to it in magnitude, so we are left without any history to guide us as to what the impacts are likely to be.
And also note that this bubble did not suddenly begin in 2004; it began in 1998 and had eclipsed the past two by 2000. You might ask yourself, “If the Federal Reserve had access to this data, and knew we had a property bubble on our hands as early as 2000, why did they continue to aggressively lower interest rates to 1% and hold them there for a year between 2003 and 2004?”
That’s a darn good question, and I’ll get to that in a minute.
http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-15-bubbles
bigarider. Do the other bikers accept you guys, with street cred?. Or do they see y’all as Weekend Warrior yuppies.
Does your hog have electric start, electronic ignition, and a soft seat? Does this help matters? ;-)
# 120 Garth to Bigrider- ” because there are not two classes of citizens… Wish for”
No , definitely do not want two classes of citizens, what I would like is for our finite $ and services to go to those that have earned them by paying into the system.
Quite reasonable point of view to most except ex politicians I guess.
“the exit” happening in Britain too
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2174086/July-house-prices-fall-average-4-138-desperate-sellers-outnumber-buyers-one.html
Oakville wrote:
“Would love to hear your perspective on the following situation – probably not as rare as it might seem. No mortgate, large two story home worth about $775K in Oakville. Want to “downsize” to a loft bungalow in the same area (i.e., Oakville/Burlington), that is probably worth +/-$900K. Don’t really want to deal with the inconvenience of renting. So what we’re really talking about is the value of the gap between selling and buying. Do we wait, or does the gap stay about the same when prices fall?
Sell for $775K, less commission, and buy for $900K plus closing costs? How is spending $182,000 more in after-tax dollars to move within the same community ‘downsizing’? Just curious. — Garth”
——–
Mr Anderson responded to this information:
“Blog post of the year. Can’t cure stupid”
————–
Mr Anderson, this will officially be the third and likely last time the following link will be posted on the blog…all in two days. It dwarfs and makes irrelevant the original story and the comments about it.
Yet…it’s utterly ignored. That fact alone makes the “greater fool” look like a genius in comparison.
Speaking of the “stupid” you’re mentioning .. that can’t be cured.
Perhaps an update on the disease, diagnosis and cure is in order. Let’s just call it human nature.
Here’s the link. Mr Anderson, care to compare it with the blog post of the year? Thoughts? How deep is the denial?
I don’t think stupidity is involved at all.
http://www.larsschall.com/2012/07/14/libor-rigging-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/
Garth is right to mock the xenophobic comments.
As a 10th+ generation canadian, who grew up in the maritimes (where you can’t tell there are any people at all when it snows), I love the diversity in the GTA.
Been here 15 years now, and wouldn’t want to be anywhere else.
We’ve built a great society on the premis that there’s room for everyone. Even the ignorant apparently…
Garth for Mayor!
So funny you pick this hood. Freind of mine bought there on opening day back in 2003 ish. paid 600k for a 3 garadge monster mcmansion. Put 300k in upgrades landscaping etc so 900k
If he sold at peek this year he would not break even. That hood has amazing homes with 10 yearold cars in driveways
Its dog. Faraway hight taxes no one wants to live there. In 2003 he could have bought a mansion on the lake which would be worth. 3million today
Garth not a very good example. Hoods a dog aleways was always will be
Not sure anyone is watching South Unionville community in Markham or not.. Went to an Open house this weekend and there were more than few offer on the table and they were all above asking. Bidding war was going on. We ran out as quick as possible. But then we wonder, will this ever change in this neighborhood?
professional
“The Canadian court documents offer an expansive picture about how and when the six international banks allegedly colluded to fix the yen-denominated rates. And they are based on an asset that investigators in any complex investigation would crave: a whistleblower who has traded immunity from prosecution in exchange for turning on his or her fellow conspirators.
Based on the whistleblower’s testimony, the Competition Bureau received a court order last year to force five Canadian affiliates of international banks and one cash broker to turn over documents relating to the alleged collusion between 2007 and 2010. ” cbc
====================
Definition of ‘Currency Carry Trade’
A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used. Investopedia explains ‘Currency Carry Trade’
Here’s an example of a “yen carry trade”: a trader borrows 1,000 Japanese yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let’s assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then she can stand to make a profit of 45%.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp#ixzz20nDJS3VU
#110 TRT on 07.16.12 at 1:34 am
#31 Maxamillion
Once insulation is put in the attic, municipal inspectors come and approve/pass that stage of the homebuilding process.
Once they leave, the homebuilder takes out the insulation and puts it in the attic of another home that needs a municipal inspection…and so on… That’s why homes in Surrey are so cold…
TRT, do you have proof? Do you really believe that? It would have to be way cheaper to pay to install insulation in 100% of the homes and then remove it from all but 1, than it is to just install it once in all the homes. Labour is expensive and time usually precious (wasted doing un-installs), and insulation is not really that expensive…
Seems like an urban legend to me
You get slightly more then $150 per month oas for 10 years, and get $527 for 40 years? Shouldn’t 10 years net you 1/4 of what 40 years pays? Government logic at work for us here.
Ottawa complaining about losing billions in undeclared income?….what a joke…..there are billions of easily recoverable taxes readily available on the books…..the paper trail is clear……right on the pages of the land titles registry. Flippers and foriegn speculators….including many domestic ethnics have been paying zero tax on capital gains on real estate for decades……wityhout a peep from CRA….my guess is that they don’t go after the immigrants, foriegners and ethnics cabals because it’s not politically correct in certain corridors….eh?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/tipping-point-ottawa-loses-billions-in-undeclared-income/article4418504/
The easiest thing in the world would be to simply audit the records at each and every government registry office….all the records are there…including ID’s and contact info…..why isn’t this being done is the question?
It was all that HAM, those rich Asians paying cash and bidding up everything. Oh wait that blame assignment is a few months old, what I meant to say was: those poor south Asians/ Indians coming over by the boatload,living off the system and getting sub prime loans and bidding up the market. Maybe we’re looking in the wrong place think about it, no one has blamed northern Asia yet. HAM, BAM whatever as long as we can dole out blame on an ethnic basis and my ethnicity is not talked about.
# 112 Garth to TRT ” it must be fun to dis immigrants especially low income earners but this says more about you than anyone else”
Quite a cop out Garth. I’m sure just about everyone is wondering why 10 years in the country retires you with a $ 150 OAS and GIS supplement, not to mention all the free expensive services ( hospitals) you can devour.
No wonder there shoving 20 people to a home in Brampton.
Welcome to Canada , home of the ‘free’
Because there are not two classes of citizens, as apparently you would wish. — Garth
————
My friend, Canada backed out of and violated it’s obligations to citizenry with the current global system and it’s integration into it. Real social dynamics have long-since overtaken the phony “ideal society” concept.
The phony ideal society schtick ends up being an assumption for all kinds of false machinations at every level. Take, for example, the real estate market.
You have no problem lifting up the citizen flag, but don’t hesitate to promote “cashing out” by cherry picking greater fools to carry the load. Let’s talk community…do citizens belong to that?
And then taking the derivatives built “equity” and pumping it back into the world ponzi?
Hey. The guy in Brampton has a 13 year old in public school. Fast forward 15 years. Nice value system.
#60 Bigrider to #10 GTA girl
Why don’t you stop pissing about and just ask her out?
Garth, want your opinion here. Myself and a partner (both in our mid 20s) have decided to rent in TO and dump a chunk of our savings into 2 triplexes in Windsor over the past year. With each property we put 20% down (207k and 228k purchase prices) and both cash flow about $500 a month (covers half my own rent!). I personally can’t see Windsor bottoming out anymore than it already has. My questions – should we keep buying these properties in Windsor? Switch markets? Or sit tight and wait until the storm has passed?
Attic Insulation
In a standard attic the insulation used is not batts, it is ‘loose fill’ that is blown in after the drywall has been installed on the ceiling. It is unusual, but not impossible, for that step to be forgotten. Here in Kelowna that insulation company is required to provide a ‘certificate’ assuring that the correct depth of attic insulation is installed prior to the city issuing an occupancy permit.
Having said that, one would hope the building inspector would at least take a peak into the attic to confirm……..
It defies belief that a homeowner would not simply hire a contractor to ‘blow-in’ the attic if it was found deficient, and then follow up with lawsuits…….
#37 Ret…”Vote for crap, get crap”. How insightful there, buddy. You must be one of those crazy people who still believe that we have fair elections… BUT I do agree with your prediction concerning those future slum areas… I just wish you wouldn’t be so racist about it…
#45 Cato… it’s not the government’s fault. It’s the banks who OWN them. If you are not going to say it, then I guess I will… you and daystar would get along real well…
Re: #11 Questioning Calgary stats on 07.15.12 at 5:29 pm
Interest rates can also move lower and odds are they will.
Re: #118 glen on 07.16.12 at 7:17 am
New housing prices could fall 5 percent but resales probably won’t fall in price.
Looks like a couple of those Brampton McMansions might need to drop asking prices simply to target sub-$1M CMHC limits and keep those 5% down buyers as an option:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12171661&PidKey=1164851856
#121 GTA Girl… “good thing they’re all involved in the drug trade too”… Whoa, whoa, whoa… say what? You’ve revealed a lot of secrets today, thank you…
Talk about ugly! BC prices down 13% YOY dragging the national average into negative territory. Little mention of BC price erosion in the MSM.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/
There are so many empty houses in Toronto it’s not even funny. The toronto market is going to fall and fall hard!
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/fixer/article/1226768–the-fixer-house-proud-senior-is-fed-up-with-the-mess-next-door
#119 Longterm… great post. Pearls before swine, though, I’m afraid.
This is the greatest country on earth, based on the best type of freedom that we have here. The freedom to be who we are, regardless of what anyone thinks. Freedom from culture, freedom from the vestiges of class structures. We honour whatever we want to honour and nobody twists our arm. Our patriotism is a strict allegiance to our own hearts, and nothing less. We don’t have the best climate, or the highest GDP. Perhaps we lack some innovation, and our educational system could be better. But we have virtually limitless resources. Maybe that’s why we are not shy to share them with the world. To be Canadian, is to know all this and still put up with those ignorant pricks who only think they are Canadian, but are in fact, the real foreigners. To all those out there who understand what I’m saying: Be free.
Brampton is going to be in a world of hurt. Many in brampton are aware the house of cards is falling . Sellers are looking to sell before they go broke and many are hoping to cash in on free money and move back home for a better life. The free money is gone and so many will leave.
First, if anyone did not listen to the “naysayers”, warning about the impossible nature of the infinitely increasing real estate market, you are about to really need a VERY, VERY, SKILLED REALTOR. Those crazy market HGTV created stars are about to be revealed as the false profits they really are with no skill in handling dropping prices and families faced with financial hardships because of rash decisions made in a frantic real estate marketplace.
2nd, as a professional, you know the type of guy who has warned clients since 2008 that a correction was coming, and lost sales because of it. The map and listing should be removed from this post, for obvious reasons. Sanjay clearly did not read the disclaimers on the sites he pulled these from.
3rd., Understanding realtor.ca is challenging I know, so the conclusions made by Sanjay are understandable but… The map appears to reveal 34 listings when in fact it could be showing only 18 actives and even a couple of those could be sold conditional.
4th, as Garth warns of the impending exodus of buyers well imagine how maps and data like currently shown on realtor.ca could add to the exodus and fuel the fire of price drops, when the data is inevitably misinterpreted by the average consumer.
[Very little evidence of a correction on the west side of Vancouver. There are no decent two bedroom condos for under half a million dollars. Fifteen percent off half a million is still unaffordable for most people.]
There are some good areas on the east side of Vancouver too. Everyone wants to live in the west side but not everyone has the income to do so. I think people should have a more realistic view when buying a property.
See we have nothing to worry about because Brad Lamb said so…
http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1269-analysts-to-condo-investors-safe
Like asking my barber if he thinks I need a haircut.
#120 Bigrider
You are right, but don’t blame the immigrants looking for a better life…blame the policy makers.
#119 Longterm
It is unfair to make such a comparison.
Quit calling people racist just because they are not on-board with your ‘let’s be tolerant and invite everyone into our country’ logic.
Quite frankly, you are the pathetic one.
Here’s a thought, if money is a commodity, and there is is a veritable ocean of it out there (with governments showing that they are ready to print more oceans of it) wouldn’t the laws of supply and demand say – that interest rates will not go up
As far as the housing market goes, irrelevant. — Garth
Garth, one of your cornerstone points on this blog is that interest rates will be rising near future. While I appreciate that this is only one of the factors that will affect RE prices, I’m not sure how you can dismiss the suggestion that interest rates may not rise appreciably as “irrelevant” wrt future RE market.
(If and when you formulate your reply to this post, please be advised that I am not trying to “catch you out” what I am trying to do is get a handle on the economic factors affecting the RE Market)
Higher rates affect affordability, bringing markets down. Sometimes over-valued markets achieve unaffordability all on their own without the external push of higher rates. This is what has happened. Higher rates are not required to bring a correction. But they could bring collapse. — Garth
zzzzzz still the same story here in my downtown neighborhood, garbage semis going for $100k over asking. Mom and dad’s money is still good for bidding wars on “cute” houses because they are close to the “right” park for Junior.
Changing mortgage amortization lengths makes zero difference for a lot of markets in town, unfortunately. Home ownership is just a fun sideline for trust fund kids, no working couple is actually going to buy at these prices, so it’s pretty decoupled from reality.
Flippers and condo owners will get punished soon. Well, we don’t have many flippers or many condos over here, just inheritance-rich yuppie families who love the romance of exposed brick walls. Not sure I see it changing much.
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#119 Long Term.
Shaddap. There’s nothing racist about noticing the self imposed stereotypes of a very visible community in that area.
There has been no racist post today, just some generalizations that aren’t all that unwarranted given the subject matter.
“Because there are not two classes of citizens, as apparently you would wish. — Garth”
I’ve heard that line before…Ditch the conservatives and go to the big red tent. I’d vote for you.
#136 Truth Hammerer,
and how do you know that CRA is not tracing sales through land registry offices as a matter of course and going after capital gains when applicable?
As to the “politically correct” angle, I invite you to peruse the Tax Court of Canada website and check the case names of judgments rendered – http://decision.tcc-cci.gc.ca/en/index.html.
You’ll find an amazing lack of political correctness, but that will be another fact of no interest to you.
OMG…you poor deluded Canuckleheads…wake-up…the new normal is that you live in a multi-cultural country… there is no returning to the 60’s…the cat is out of the bag…the Indians, Chinese and Arabs are better businessman than you…they outwork, out-produce and out-think you…they come from mature economic cultures…they see opportunity everywhere…they pursue money 24/7/365…and they take chances
It’s nothing personal…it’s just business…get over it
I know…DELETED
#152:
Those crazy market HGTV created stars are about to be revealed as the false profits ….
HA the shill made a booboo. False profits indeed. Freudian slip.
But yet so much smugness and attitude in the post,
“well imagine how maps and data like currently shown on realtor.ca could add to the exodus and fuel the fire of price drops, when the data is inevitably misinterpreted by the average consumer.”
Because the average consumer is stupid, right. Let’s not include maps and data because they don’t understand how we feel the market only goes up and it’s always a good time to buy.
No matter how you spin it, you’re still spewing crap.
And THIS
};-) aka DA on 07.16.12 at 12:41 pm
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Made my day. I knew he couldn’t stay away. Thanks Garth!
# 125 turnernation.
Are you kidding me? 99% + of all bikes out there have electronic ignition and soft seats. Unless the guys are wearing a hells angels patch, all re riders are weekend warrior type.
I saw all of two HA members in port Dover on last Friday and about 20 thousand yuppies
What are you getting at??
What are you getting at
Hi,
Since clearly all immigrants are paradoxically both sneakily taking all the jobs from good Canadian white folk and lazily taking unearned Old Age Security and EI payments, I was hoping that I could get some recommendations on a good neighbourhood to move to.
I’m looking for a demographic of about 90% xenophobic, ignorant white Canadian and British ex-pat honkies who will get a good chuckle at my racist jokes anlong with a 10% pan-Asian underclass to preserve the natural order of things by serving me ginger beef, working at the dollar store and driving me around in taxis.
The neighbourhood should have a decent country bar, or at least an Irish pub. An Orange Julius would be nice, too.
My plan is to make a killing by opening a store that specializes in electric guitars, ironic T-shirts, kitchen gadgets, Ferris Bueller DVDs and brunch.
Thanks in advance.
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BTW as a fedex courier i’ve been all over the GTA and the RE market looks to be dead in the water in almost every GTA city , not just Brampton. It is very funny to read realtor people posts on garths blog but the RE crash is becoming very obvious to everyone.
#71 45north
At this point he’s obviously trying to generate maximum sympathy. As a buyer, years ago, he was perfectly aware of house inspections, but elected to decline to have one done, in order to save a couple hundred bucks on $300,000 purchase. Probably bought at the maximum of his budget, and could not afford the closing costs, which he did not account for. Over the years he’s paid several thousand every year for the extra heating and cooling needed, not to mention the $200 for the tent. Classic case of penny wise and pound foolish if there ever was one.
He has to do this, because he bears much of the responsibility here. Now it’s a 4-way he-said-she-said: he says the city inspector passed a house with no insulation, the city says ‘heck no we didn’t of course there was insulation’, the developer says ‘of course we put insulation in, it was the previous owner who took it out’, the previous owner says ‘huh? why you bothering me? I didn’t do anything’. So a decade later it’s a clusterf*k.
#105 Dazed and Confused
I have heard many stories similar to yours – seniors are moving back to Hong Kong to enjoy their golden years. The lifestyle is more suitable, daily expenses are lower, and their kids are now independent. Sometimes, their kids have found good jobs in Asia after getting a Canadian education, and they want to be close to them. I sometimes wonder if they still get to collect their OAS from overseas.
Mingford; about BigRider..I’m becoming increasingly suspicious that it’s my husband. Or my neighbor…or cousin…brother in law?
In Woodbridge, everyone knows everyone.
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Big rider; did you buy a t-shirt from the H.A. Booth? They were raising money for their charity baseball team….
No, I’m not kidding.
And amongst the weekend riders were some very interesting characters. Was like the Santa Claus parade of the tattoo’d pierced variety.
BTW loved Port Dover. What a beautiful place. Area residents so friendly. I’m going back. Forget Collingwood/Blue Mtn wallet trap. The Port Dover area is stunning Canadiana
US not heading into a recession? Think again:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/david-stockman-on-fed-u-s-deficit-economy-fjVvrmEFQ6OBaN2oXUXkNQ.html
http://www.fintrac.gc.ca/re-ed/real-eng.asp#s22
Hi, Garth
Thank you for reading my post here.
Do you know that there are some immigrants in Vancouver who borrowed about 2 millions in house mortgages, but receive Government welfare without paying any income tax ?
How come the Government is so stupid?!
If a person can pay back 2 millions in mortgage, he must has quite bit income. And he should pay some tax, and he should not get Government welfare! At least!
Many people have rental income without paying income tax here in Vancouver. The landlords only accept cash rent. The landlords rent 2 to 4 suites in one property.
Is this legal?!
Does the Government know about it?
Thank you!
People, please do not treat http://www.realtor.ca as a reliable source of listings data. Actually, just don’t use that site at all since the data will become increasingly skewed as this market tanks.
# 112 Garth to TRT ” it must be fun to dis immigrants especially low income earners but this says more about you than anyone else”
Not dissing anyone. Just telling it like it is. Not pandering to any special interest groups. I guess this is what you mean when you say … “but this says more about you than anyone else”
The Red Pin’s Sesame Street Statistics says new listings are up 32% w/w. http://www.theredpin.com/blog/canada/infographic-toronto-real-estate-july-16-2012
I was talking to my mom today about her real estate transaction and it turns out that due to taxes and fees she took a loss on the home she sold so that she could buy a bungalow in Comox, B.C. She also indicated that it is now a buyers market on Vancouver Island.
The extra costs were a set back but she has a roof over her head and no debt. All things considered that is something.
My sister inlaw expressed the opinion that next year in Ontario we will see a correction in Ontario real estate.
I told her that a mere correction might be optimistic.
This slow down in sales is not about confidence or interest rates ,its about buying power. If you are not earning near or over a 6 figure income you have insufficient buying power relative to real estate prices.
Since wages are not likely to sky rocket I am expecting a crash in prices and not a correction. For boomers and their children this will be financial armaggedon and they won’t like it one bit.
#167 Hakuna Matata
Windsor, Ontario.
#156 superbubble… you intolerant prick. Who said let’s allow everyone in? No, you are pathetic. Brandishing everyone who doesn’t agree with you in a false light. You make me sick. Excuse me while I puke.
#156
It is unfair to make such a comparison.
Really? Why is that? Because you and your ancestors got in early and are more worthy. Or is it that you don’t want to confront [or perhaps don’t know] the realities of Canadian history? The decendent of an immigrant in an immigrant country deriding immigrants has got to be the sadest from of greed.
Luckily you don’t have control over immigration policy because with Canadian domestic birth rates so low ‘those people’ are the ones who will fund your health care system and future pension and provide ideas from around the world to broaden closed minds.
#160 zeeman1… “There’s nothing racist about noticing the self imposed stereotypes of a very visible community in that area.”
Yup, nothing wrong at all… as long as it’s never reversed, right? By the way, “noticing” isn’t what was going on today… learn to read…
Dear Hakuna Matata,
it sounds like your plan requires working hard for a living, and as a fat lazy white man with a predilection for racist jokes, this may be a shock to your system.
As I am concerned for your health I recommend you leave the country, although I am unable to come up with any decent places Elsewhere that fit your requirements.
TTFN,
Tkid
One more thing I noticed today while I was driving north on highway400. A builder was offering $65,000 in free extras to new home buyers to sweeten a deal.
That kind of thing has got to be an indicator of the end of a real estate boom. Watch out for the crash.
Looking at the housing prices in Burnaby and Vancouver
Lots of Spankin new houses priced at 988,000 just last month the average new house price was 1,078,000 and 1,200,000.
Also the listings for condos new and used are ballooning. Its looking very serious!!!
#136 truth hammer
Not quite as you think. If you are a non-resident of Canada [even if you are a Canadian citizen] and you sell a property in Canada, before the transaction can be completed you must pay 25% withholding tax on the capital gain and get a certificate from CRA to this effect. This happens before the transaction is allowed to proceed to ensure that CRA gets their money. These transactions are reviewed by the local CRA office. If you don’t pay the withholding tax and get the certificate and CRA somehow misses it, the buyer’s lawyers flag it and the deal is stopped. If CRA somehow misses that the seller is a non-resident and the buyer has a rubbish lawyer and the deal goes through without a certificate then by law the BUYER is now liable for the withholding tax that the seller should have paid on the capital gains on the sale. The buyer then has the legal right to reclaim that money from their lawyer for the lawyer failing in the due diligence.
Any way you slice it, CRA gets their money.
#167 Hakuna Matata.
My oh my, how the anti white racists come out of the woodwork after reading posts they think might be racist, but actually aren’t.
Garth, I still don’t know how you deal with this douche baggery every day.
i can see how families earning over 100k would still keep buying houses costing 400k here in Calgary. partly ignorant, partly misled and partly hoping that over the long-term they will come out ok.
i know i stand no chance of getting a house below its list price as i will be handsomely outbid.
and finally i can not get myself to bid at all, 400k for a small house! not happening. more so when i have seen double the house selling for 150k in say Austin and 250k in say Sacramento. so i will continue renting and stuffing orange guys shorts. even though in the long term who knows if buying would have been better for me given the current risk return investment profile/outlook.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-16/zuckerberg-s-loan-gives-new-meaning-to-the-1-mortgages.html
Suddeutsche reports leak of CD data implicating British Coutts bank in tax evasion
Suddeutsche has reported that the state of North-Rhine Westphalia has purchased a leaked CD holding account data relating to around one thousand German clients of the Zurich branch of British private bank Coutts
#177 Disciple.
What’s the matter?
Breaking news of Pee Wee Herman moonlighting as President Obama not keeping you busy enough?
in response to
#139 mingeford on 07.16.12 at 10:33 am
#60 Bigrider to #10 GTA girl
Why don’t you stop pissing about and just ask her out?
*************************************
“Big” Rider has been clumsily trying to get GTA girl out on a date for many months now…..GTA girl seems to be rebuffing his unwanted advances….stay tuned to see if anything develops in next week’s installment :)
To the Discriminators:
If you are upset with lazy people, then direct your ire towards them. If it is parasitic individuals who take advantage of others and the system, then do the same. If it is people who break the law, same again. (also report these to the appropriate authorities)
As soon as you attribute any of those poor behaviours to being a member of a particular enthnic group, you are being racist. It only gets worse when you then direct your anger at the group (race), and not the individuals within the group who are behaving badly. Every large enough group has some individuals who are lazy, parasitic, and criminal. Non visible minorities and long(er) term citizens included.
Give yourselves a shake!
hey tkid I am pretty sure Hakuna Matata was making a funny there.
could be wrong, but it seems like his/her tongue was planted firmly in his/her cheek.
@167 Hakuna Matata
*bows* Give this person an internet. You just made my day.
I read today that three condo projects launched earlier this year in Toronto have already been cancelled. Does anyone know which ones these are? Here is the post http://www.getwhatyouwant.ca/2012/07/13/toronto-real-estate-market-predictions-we-bring-our-crystal-ball/
#167Hakuna Matata
The definition of a liberal is someone whose interests are in no way threatened or compromised.
I must assume from your post that you are fortunate not to be in any way threatened or compromised.
#150 disciple on 07.16.12 at 11:52 am
Well put. Thank you.
John
#78 Kris on 07.15.12 at 10:17 pm
……And if it’s a relatively new locality, maybe the noise pollution wasn’t part of the builders marketing literature – Let alone the city having signs warning of it!
OK, like, who the hell actually needs someone else to tell them that airports = loud?
Always amazes me how little research folks will do before dumping a huge chunk of life savings plus leverage into a pile of bricks.
I know I checked out several pertintent distances when I was narrowing down neighbourhoods:
Get close to stuff that I need:
-Work,
-Groceries,
-expressways and arterial routes,
-transit,
-parks and rec,
-Friends and family,
stay as far as possible from the stuff that I don’t need on a day to day basis:
-airport,
-slaughterhouse,
-paper mill,
-rendering plant
-chemical plant
-nuclear generating station,
-High voltage power corridor,
-sewage plant,
-etc.,
This is good stuff to know before you buy.
It’s not hard to find out either with the tools at everyone’s disposal (i.e. google maps), and with a simple drive/walk around any neighbourhood you like.
Hell, if you were houseshopping during daylight hours, the typical Pearson flight paths are far from a big secret……I had them pretty well deciphered just from looking up at the sky for 10 seconds while I was scanning North Mississausage and Brampton neighbourhoods.
Dear DM in C,
A few facts on realtor.ca because the public is never told these facts:
1) A single property posted on 4 regional MLS systems ( a necessary evil with regional controls and legislation) creates 4 different listings for the same property on realtor.ca. In the 905 area of Ontario, about 25% of the inventory is double posted.
2) Even on realtor.ca there is a 5 to 10 day delay in sold properties being removed.
3) Many, Many properties, in every city, displayed on realtor.ca are SOLD yet remain as “for sale” because the MLS data is collected from over 100 regional MLS systems, then co-mingled on the national advertising site realtor.ca.
4) Although the infrastructure used to populate realtor.ca with listing advertisments costs REALTORS over 100 million dollars a year to sustain, the consumer still does not have the data and tools on realtor.ca that they need to make accurate decisions. They can get the information they need from the local MLS website, not a a national advertising platform like realtor.ca.
5) Since most MLS systems allow a 48 hour list to post window that excludes weekends and holidays, the best day to see what your local real estate “for sale” situation is remains viewing realtor.ca on Wednesday and Thursday. The other 5 days cannot be relied upon for any accurate market statistics.
With over 100,000 versions of realtor.ca now authorized to be launched across Canada in the next couple of months, the consumer will be faced with even more challenges finding accurate data to make decision on.
So doom and gloom here lately. I have friends that just sold their semi in Newmarket with multiple offers, listed less than 4 days on the market. If the market’s are so bad and so slow around the GTA, then why is it that I continually see Sold signs on many of the homes?
There still seems to be air left in the balloon as far as I can see. I don’t think that its right, but it certainly isn’t as doom and gloom as most posters make it out to be in this comments section.
#190 zeeman1 on 07.16.12 at 4:04 pm
“My oh my, how the anti white racists come out of the woodwork after reading posts they think might be racist, but actually aren’t.”
You didn’t write the posts, so how could you possibly know what was in the minds/hearts of those who did?
John
#199 IM in C on 07.16.12 at 4:33 pm
And what is “the” definition of a conservative?
And BTW, you don’t have to assume anything — that’s what questions are for.
John
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/david-stockman-on-fed-u-s-deficit-economy-fjVvrmEFQ6OBaN2oXUXkNQ.html
“Stockman: We’re Heading Toward Recession, Paralysis”
It’s not followed by higher interest rates , right?………
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/07/moodys-iltaian-bank-downgrade.html
“Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded by one to two notches the long-term debt and deposit ratings for 10, and the issuer ratings for 3, Italian financial institutions”
Slowly make your way to the exits folks, it’s only a small fire…………
#191 calgary64 on 07.16.12 at 4:05 pm
yes, buying in calgary is better option. better 400K today than 430K next year.
“Vancouver Housing Overbought for a Long Time”
– Sherry Cooper, on BNN, 5:45pm EST today
-4.1% month-over-month price drop = BPOE?
Maybe BPOE=”Biggest Percentage Off Ever”?
#163 Chaos
OMG…you poor deluded Canuckleheads…wake-up…the new normal is that you live in a multi-cultural country… there is no returning to the 60′s…the cat is out of the bag…the Indians, Chinese and Arabs are better businessman than you…they outwork, out-produce and out-think you…they come from mature economic cultures…they see opportunity everywhere…they pursue money 24/7/365…and they take chances
It’s nothing personal…it’s just business…get over it
I know…DELETED
Really? Can either of them push a lawn mower?
#190 zeeman1
anti white racists?
oh my!
more proof canadians are the dumbest people on earth.
#184 Longterm…..good info…..any idea if there is a move to audit the land registry files going back the legal ( 9 year) reporting period?
Remax Condo Plus: What’s wrong with the Toronto Condo Market? Answer: Rents are too low! http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/blog/what%E2%80%99s-wrong-with-the-toronto-condo-market-answer-rents-are-too-low/
Absurdity.
@204 John G. Young
The definition of a Conservative is someone who acknowleges his interests
Canadian Watchdog on 07.16.12 at 6:11 pm Remax Condo Plus: What’s wrong with the Toronto Condo Market? Answer: Rents are too low! http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/blog/what%E2%80%99s-wrong-with-the-toronto-condo-market-answer-rents-are-too-low/
Absurdity.
———————————————————-
This proves realtors are either 100% uneducated STUPID IDIOTS or they are criminal liars. Take your pick realtors in a panic! Once again good find Canadian Watchdog.
#202 Uxbridge Reader
You realtors can make up all the fake stories you like but the housing crash in the GTA is a reality. The market just STALLED and this before the new mortgage rules. Those who just bought the past couple of months are now underwater as prices are down and will continue to drop. Watch July numbers….they are HORRIBLE from what I hear the realtors will have to spin a whole lot of lies. One realtor told me it was too hot and dry this june and july so people went out and enjoied the weather. LOL i hope they can think of a better excuse/lies. Keep posting in a panic on garths blog. It’s to funny and very obvious who is a worried out of work realtor. It’s going to be a nasty crash!
Iceland Has Hired An Ex-Cop To Hunt Down The Bankers That Wrecked Its Economy
…white collar crime hunter …a&e replacement for Dog “The Bounty Hunter”
———–
#5 is interesting
35 Questions Mitt Romney Must Answer About Bain Capital Before The Issue Can Go Away
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tjwalker/2012/07/14/35-questions-mitt-romney-must-answer-about-bain-capital-before-the-issue-can-go-a
========
takes one to know one??
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/16/romney-accuses-obama-cronyism
Garth: I have not seen any comment by you with reference to who coordinated this ruinous building programme ?
Someone coordinated revving up Real Estate Sales, revving up banks to give 40 year 1 % mortgages and revving up the building contractors. “Who Done It “?
As I drive down the street these builder bloodsuckers are still revved up.
Further, since we know the real cost of any home that was built in the last 6 years or so was perhaps 60-70% below the selling price, where did all the money go ?
Please tell.
The Architects of this ruinous scheme must be identified and made to take the Tumbril treat.
Canada has been set back ten years.
#117 landless in van
Really, is that what you’re seeing?
Regardless, prices will go down, and you still won’t be able to afford one. Why is everyone here so impatient? 5 years from now, prices will still be going down.
#212 IM in C on 07.16.12 at 6:34 pm
“@204 John G. Young
The definition of a Conservative is someone who acknowleges his interests”
OIC. And whose definitions are these?
John
#134 Steve
Of course it is. What usually happens is the inspector shows up on site, there are 20 houses ready to go, he pops his head into a couple for a few seconds, then signs off on the whole division. These are basically passed from plans if the builder has a good relationship with the inspectors, which most do, otherwise they never finish anything.
–
#143 disciple — “. . . it’s not the government’s fault. It’s the banks who OWN them.”
Agreed. Politicos are the front-line stormtroopers, m$m journalists who lay blame on one another while diverting attention away from the real source of troubles, the banxters — Like these whackjobs “Prison would be nice, but if you really want to send a message to future generations of money-junkies, then I recommend hanging, drawing, quartering, burning, then having a dog piss on the ashes!” wrh.com.
*
Impossible Debts ‘Debts that cannot be paid will not be paid.’; NAmerica Recession Look, we have no bananas! IMF says Japan and Spain are fried. Add on the EZone, NAmerica, the UK and this cycle is complete; Billion and lillions (RE); JPM torpedoed Lehman? USSR = USSA Done by large corporations; The Avro Arrow and NASA Remember what happened when Dief shut it down? Now the same is happening at NASA; GD2? “Close? We are already there! The real jobless rate in the US when you include people who have been out of work so long they no longer receive benefits is above 40%. That is worse than the depression of the 1930s.” wrh.com. Hence the wars; 2:38 clip Chicago, Chicago that’s my kinda town and California Worst credit rating in the entire universe; Libor and Gas Prices Both rigged? BIS slams Benny’s Bozos.
*
Civil War declared in Syria The Pentagon is dancing in the streets, and 2:13 clip Update on WW3; UN Gun Grab, but Soros / Obummer / UN will have a fight on their hands (civil war); Oral Polio Vaccine Paralysis cases soar in India; Buying a home-drone election; Mushroom Cloud Condi vs. Blabbermouth Billary Your choice for VP, and Billary Wet, sloppy garbage is a better choice, as tomatoes are tasty; 2:44 clip “This is a warning sign that the Federal Government is planning to suspend the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.” wrh.com; Texas Secession? Hawaii and possibly Alaska can leave as well, plus Scotland doing the same to England; One in Five, Baby Hackers; Verizon Interfering old busy-bodies.
Milton, Brampton, Mississauga, Georgetown, Vaughan, Bolton, Aurora, Newmarket, Markham. Pickering and Richmond Hill.
Suburban hell, soul-less, uninspiring, bereft of quality civic planning, traffic-congested, subdivisions surrounded by thousands of parked cars, strip mall after strip mall punctuated by Walmarts and Futureshops.
The size of this drive-thru wasteland is truly amazing. When flying into T.O. you can spend anywhere from 15-30 minutes gliding over this sprawl as your aircraft slows on it’s final leg to land. LA north!
This is what happens when developers, corrupt municipal officials and the board of trade run the show.
DELETED
209 superbubble,
Are you saying that it is impossible to be racist toward white people? If so, then you are probably the biggest idiot on earth. Racism knows no such bounds.
The degree to which white liberals go to poo-poo concerns about the extinction of their culture is quite amusing. Go to China and ask a resident of Beijing why there aren’t more black people there, and you’ll quickly find out that multi-culturalism is not a global idea by a long shot. Most ethnic groups are interested in preserving their culture and genetic heritage, and good for them. It would be a poorer world without the diversity that arises from isolation.
#211 Canadian Watchdog on 07.16.12 at 6:11 pm
Good Lord! ReMax just made an enemy of me. So the answer when housing prices go way off their income to house price or rents to house price long term averages is to raise rents! Unbelievable. I can’t believe they put that on an official website.
Hakuna Matata on 07.16.12 at 1:23 pm
You’d do well in Australia too – to fit your ideal demographic there’s plenty of “ex-urban” locations in most of the States (except perhaps Tasmania and the NT).
Particularly choice locations would include Melbourne, and Western Sydney where you’d fit in nicely with the local “Bogan Culture” – for loose definition see Wikipedia!
And you all wonder why we were SO happy to get out!!
Garth some people are making fun of you on the redflagdeals forum, you should post there and set them straight.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/vancouver-bubble-road-50-housing-crash-w-monthly-stats-1194032/43/
Why? — Garth
#57 MARK W: “Many of these immigrants are much smarter than many white Canadians … you get 4 (or more) full time incomes coming into one house and you get the mortgage paid off within ten years.”
*****************
Does privacy, freedom and independence mean anything?
#177 A in Vancouver on 07.16.12 at 2:47 pm
Many people have rental income without paying income tax here in Vancouver. The landlords only accept cash rent. The landlords rent 2 to 4 suites in one property.
Is this legal?!
Does the Government know about it?
==================================
Not adviseable…..moreso now. CRA wants/needs its $$$
Usually every landlord eventually gets that @sshole tenant who also knows the laws and will rat them out in a heartbeat when tensions arise.
@218 John G.Young
OIC. And whose definitions are these?
Mine , of course!
What are your definitions of liberal and conservative
Amazing how only ‘whites’ are mentioned whenever the possibility of racism is in the air–Duh, no, there’s no racism towards ‘whites’, or whoever else, in the ‘South Asian’ community..oh, and none in the ‘Black’, the ‘Native Indian’, the ‘Asian’, and wtvr else,.. and then within the ‘whites’ there’s no racism in the Greeks, the Italians, the Germans, the wtvr… towards eachother…naww
Brampton has huge areas where anyone other than ‘South Asians’ feel like they are in the ‘Invasion of the Body Snatchers’ because they stand out so much, and, frankly, are not necessarily welcome. The Federal Government’s definition of ‘Visible Minority’ does not apply. Of course it’s not only Brampton, but areas of Markham, Malton… some don’t g-a-s about diversity
Hey,
Are you trying to say that only white people are into “brunch”????
Isn’t Dim Sum the proto-brunch tradition???
There is no racism in this dojo!
I should be ashamed for getting dragged into this discussion. I am.
Imagine how I feel. — Garth
#229 IM in C on 07.16.12 at 8:54 pm
Thank you for your reply.
“What are your definitions of liberal and conservative?”
I don’t presume to know enough to make such labels with any degree of confidence. Also, I have a deep mistrust of labels, as they are so often used — for instance, on this blog — to reduce, to inflame, to shut down discussion rather than encourage it.
In my opinion, labels are always for the benefit of the one labeling, and never the one being labeled.
John
Its just under the surface
Sad really.
it’s 10:15
where is the new post???
Did anyone see this news about the “Tour des Canadiens”?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/07/16/tour-des-canadiens-montreal.html
Looks like at least one more Montreal developer hasn’t yet received the memo about the crashing housing market. Even with a good market though, the location would be really bad for such a large condo building as the lot is very narrow.
Bad news for mankind, your all racists everylast one of you! At least have the decency to be honest about it.
there are two types of racists in this world, The honest ones and the politically correct liberals that are in denial. Guess who they hate the most?
Now as this real estate depression becomes more obvious I expect people to get nastier and nastier as their favorite investment vehical reaches fair market value which by the way is way below where it is now.
So if you all don’t have cast iron stomachs you will need a bottle of TUMS and something to distract you.
Garth – Sales first, then prices – still don’t see anything in areas where folks actually want to live (good school, easy travel, etc ) coming down anytime soon…No one wants to live in Victoria, Regina or Brampton.
Van or Toronto dramatically lower in price _ NO
#20 Nostra – but Canada isn’t leaving Britain (unfortunately).
#159 };-) aka DA – DELETED
Garth, the comment section has been so much better (and shorter) since you’ve been cutting his crap. Hope you keep it up indefinitely.
Sell, Baby, Sell!
#236 Steven Rowlandson on 07.17.12 at 12:25 am
“Bad news for mankind, your all racists everylast one of you!”
Assuming that you are a human being — and based on some of your comments here I admit I do have my doubts — then surely what meant meant to write was “WE’RE all racists everylast [sic] one of US.” Otherwise you just come across as smug and superior (as usual).
You’re welcome.
John
Brampton is a very poorly planned city. There is little in Brampton other than endless subdivisions, big-box stores and endless “distribution centres”. East of the 410 and south of Steeles suffer from high levels of airport noise. A large percentage of the population commutes to Mississauga (mostly those office parks in the airport flight path between Eglinton Avenue and Hwy 407) and Toronto, and Highway 410 suffers from severe congestion in rush hour. There are few jobs other than the head office of a grocery store chain (Loblaws), an outpost of Rogers, a Chrysler car factory and low paying distribution centre jobs. Nevertheless, the population of Brampton grew by almost 100,000 people in the last 5 years alone. It is absolutely astonishing that anyone chooses to live there.
#214 – Realtors in an all out PANIC!
I am not a Real Estate Agent. Far from it, can’t stand them myself. I’m just trying to share a story of reality. This house:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12196780&PidKey=-1217733463
SOLD for over asking price with no conditions in less than 4 days. Quite contrary to the doom and gloom continually posted by you! I agree a correction is coming, but, dude…you need to get a reality check on what is happening while you sit on the sidelines!
Are you a ‘skilled’ tradeperson? In school trying to become one? Well, you’re gonna face some stiff competition from foreign workers. Good Luck getting those raises…if you’re lucky, wages may not go down.
Hope this post doesn’t get deleted.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/07/17/edmonton-foreign-workers-labour.html
#242Andrew on 07.17.12 at 1:26 pm
“It is absolutely astonishing that anyone chooses to live there.”
Maybe they don’t. That’s the definition of a Ghetto. People living somewhere that they must – out of necessity or hardship.