Merciless

On Friday, the first of February 2008, the wusses who run the University of Toronto posted this on the web site: “Due to severe weather conditions on Friday, U of T Missisauga is closed, U of T Scarborough is closed as of 10:00AM, and U of T (St. George) is closed as of 11:00AM. University buildings are closed and classes and on-campus activities are cancelled.” Within two hours every school in the area was shut.

Despite six inches of snow, on that day Toronto became the first Canadian city to pass its very own land transfer tax, substantially increasing the cost of a house. Across the GTA that February the average house price was $415,431, and in 416, the average detached house was changing hands for $674,358. Today the same property costs 19% more, putting it at an unaffordable $803,671.

On the same day, a five-year mortgage at TD was 7.39%, and a cheapo VRM was 5.25%. Just imagine if the current 3.2% rate were to shoot up two percentage points overnight. The price of real estate in Toronto would plunge.

What does this help explain? That a 39% drop in interest rates was probably responsible for a 19% increase in prices. And now that cheap money-fueled speculation and borrowing excess has pushed homes beyond the grasp of average families, realtors need something else to blame.

And so it was this week that the Toronto Real Estate Board fingered the extra land transfer tax – in effect now for more than four years – for the sudden chill frosting the summer market. Amazing. And telling.

As forecast on this admittedly pathetic blog with its growing audience of idle, pissy and irascible realtors, sales in the Big Smoke are tanking. Condos crashed 18% from year-ago levels last month. Single detached deals in 416 took a 13% dive. And thanks to the colonials and natives in the 905 outback, where news travels slowly, sales in the GTA as a whole eroded five and a half per cent. Worth noting was the fact 430 people with more money than sense spent over $1 million on a house last month. Strip them out and just imagine what’s actually happening to prices in the middle of the market.

Now, remember that Vancouver sales have also plopped – off a withering 27%, giving us a good indication of exactly where Toronto is headed. And this June freeze is not just happening in the big cities full of tedious Vespa-riding metrosexuals. For example, take a look at Vancouver Island, where all the Boomers from Mississauga used to go to die, just like salmon.

Sales in the whole region are off 11%, which upscale areas like Parksville and Qualicum down 13% and the Cowichan Valley in the midst of a 32% collapse. In poor Victoria even the head realtor has admitted “it is now more of a buyer’s market,” as sales sag, listings pop and a long, lonesome melt begins. Just look at this chart, and the vid below.


Let’s remember that these things are happening without the hint of a mortgage rate increase. They’ve come even before F and the peckerettes slashed the max amortization period, excluded million-dollar houses from insurance, murdered the cash-back bank loan or raised the borrowing requirements for new virgins. The earliest some of those changes click in is next Monday – which means the agents and brokers reading this should prepare for far worse news.

As for anyone contemplating jumping in and buying a hot property, because these guys claim it’s now a buyer’s market, well, go on holiday instead. This is just the start. Sales tank first. Prices later – months later. But when they do turn lower, they can move at a dizzying pace.

We have evidence of that already, as analyst Wynn Quon has pointed out: “When a bubble collapses, it falls with a merciless knife-edge. The crash scythed through neighborhoods from coast to coast. In some Californian suburbs, prices fell by 70%. In Las Vegas, prices fell 65%, in Phoenix and Daytona Beach they dropped 60%. Rather than a gentle landing, five years of price increases were erased in eighteen months. Millions had their homes foreclosed and the tidal wave of defaults threw the banking system into chaos.”

Could this happen in Canada? Of course. It’s possible. Because when all the poor people who don’t come here understand what’s really happening with houses on their street – neighbours slashing prices, unable to sell – nobody will want real estate. Condo speckers and flippers will be squished, and the condo market decimated. Housing will suddenly be like Nortel. One year people can’t get enough. The next year they can’t leave fast enough.

Human nature. If only the weather were so predictable.

258 comments ↓

#1 K on 07.05.12 at 9:40 pm

Great website, thanks for the daily read.

#2 MJ on 07.05.12 at 9:40 pm

firstttttttttt!!¡!!!!!

#3 Toronto_CA on 07.05.12 at 9:41 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/07/05/pol-weston-public-service-severance.html

I’m starting to get more concerned with Harpo. Payouts of 6 billion to save $500 mil a year sounds good in the long run, oops but we snuck in a secret raise for everyone that negates the savings.

I guess with all these public union leeches getting $50k severance packages when they aren’t being fired they can afford to prop up the real estate market in Ottawa?

Disgusting day to be a tax payer contributing more than 50% of your earnings to taxes without a DB plan. Good on the CBC for reporting this.

Also good post Garth. Blaming the 4 year old transfer tax for sales dropping is so ridiculous I don’t know where to begin. July numbers and August should be very interesting post July 9th.

#4 Ladybug on 07.05.12 at 9:42 pm

Tonight’s blog is so scary that I’m more than ever grateful that we heeded your advice when we heard it. Thank you so very much!

#5 Keeping the Faith on 07.05.12 at 9:44 pm

To Quote Malcolm Gladwell, we’ve reached the tipping point.
For those of you not familiar with his book, i.e. realtors because they didn’t make a picture book version, this is the point at which you are looking up at the 400 lb kid on the teeter-totter in the air across from you and ready to launch you into orbit … bonne voyage.

To all realturds: This is going to be one ride you will never forget.

#6 TurnerNation on 07.05.12 at 9:44 pm

Picture appears to have laminate not hardwood floors. Not sure I’d buy that house. Today’s buyers demand gleaming hardwood!

#7 Randy on 07.05.12 at 9:45 pm

Wynn Quon does some pretty interesting insightful analyses….

#8 TurnerNation on 07.05.12 at 9:45 pm

Do you ever wonder how our corrupted elite leaders sleep at night? Let me tell you.

All of them are indoctrinated into a brutal humanistic system (kill, or be killed; the end justifies the means), emphasized by mystic rituals and paths (ie.Kabbalism , 33+ fremasonry steps/degrees to ‘knowledge’, and other secret societies, rites)’. Hey, it’s no wackier than the average religion. But they believe in its power.

Right or wrong, they believe there is no ‘heaven’, that this life is a finality.

Therefore, live it up now! Do what thou whilst (google that one).

But how to control the remaining society? Teach us the opposite. Invent complex control systems such as religion’s grasp. Scare the sheeple straight into believing in a firely hell or bogey men.

Create, nuture, organziations which emphasize goodness and duty (ie. Promise Keepers, the Military). Make people kill each other or selves over a ‘higher interest’ (a god, or dying for a flag).

Scare us stright while they do the bad stuff. Hey it prevents us from muscling in on their business.

Let me tell you now, countries do not really exist. It’s all a quaint creation/distraction.
Our rulers are supra-national.

I gave you a perfect example, yesterday. Globe reported: Canadian, and Power Corp’s leader, Paul Desmarais having ex French PM Sarkozy over to his Quebec cottage. Now what would a newly deposed European PM be doing rubbing shoulders with a Canadian businessman, if not overseeing the global business.

Canada’s held four or five Federal elections in as many years. Keep spinning the wheel until their globalist guy gets in. Do you think we, as a county, had any say in this process? Nope. Their man was destined to get in. They willed it so.

Read all about their supra-national businesses. For these, they are knighted or receive order of Canada or similar trinkets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Desmarais

Joe 6-Pack and Sally Punchclock? Mere slaves. But we are free to leave at any time…?!

#9 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 07.05.12 at 9:45 pm

Hey…let go of Smoking Mans leg !

#10 Don't Believe The Hype on 07.05.12 at 9:46 pm

This real estate melodrama is getting interestinger by the minute….

#11 mark on 07.05.12 at 9:49 pm

It’s amazing how the real estate playbook works exactly the same around the world.

The same nonsense happens in Australia. Sales begin to fall off and all of a sudden housing transfer duties and taxes are the reason. This despite the fact they were exactly the same when things were booming.

#12 vincent on 07.05.12 at 9:51 pm

take a look at Vancouver Island, where all the Boomers from Mississauga used to go to die, just like salmon.

Best quote of the day :D

#13 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 07.05.12 at 9:53 pm

Look at all the realtors posting in an all out panic as home sales CRASH over 13% and condos CRASH over 18% and that’s from the realtors manipulated fake numbers. Realtor smokingman is posting in an all out PANIC as well as the other realtors who post on garths blog as the housing crash has hit Toronto. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors but you realtors know this which is why you post on garths blog.

#14 TurnerNation on 07.05.12 at 9:58 pm

ps. I am sure nervous F reads this pathetic weblog. But he is stuck as a colonial lick-spittle. His boss H, however, would never read this blog. Why. He has what matters Power. Garth does not have it. Not in the sense of supra-national power. Power is all that matters to them.
Power at all costs. Hold elections until your gain power. Crush those all who oppose you.

#15 Toronto Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 07.05.12 at 10:01 pm

I’ve been telling you all the past couple of weeks that sales were crashing in Toronto with many deals falling through as realtors had to peel off the sold sign and do more empty open houses. Realtors like smokingman are in a panic and it’s obvious from their posts. This is happening before the rule change. Mortgage brokers are saying the phones have just stopped. Vancouver and Toronto are said to be looking at a 50% drop or greater over the next two years and this comes from realtors in the GTA who talk about this in private. It’s going to be a nasty crash. If you didn’t get out you are Forked.

#16 Keeping the Faith on 07.05.12 at 10:02 pm

Here’s how it works, realturds: print screen:

1) prices drop. Home owner victims, I mean those in the market, 70% of Canadians, do not get the price they think they should for their house. So they stay put

2) the 30% that have not bought into the market realize it’s a bad investment, so they don’t invest.

And the fun begins.
Wash, rinse, repeat… HAHAHHAHAHAHHAH

#17 Hoof-Hearted on 07.05.12 at 10:04 pm

“Inside Job” Documentary

http://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/inside_job_2010/

The film was screened at the 2010 Cannes Film Festival in May and won the 2010 Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature.

From Academy Award® nominated filmmaker, Charles Ferguson (“No End In Sight”), comes INSIDE JOB, the first film to expose the shocking truth behind the economic crisis of 2008.

The global financial meltdown, at a cost of over $20 trillion, resulted in millions of people losing their homes and jobs. Through extensive research and interviews with major financial insiders, politicians and journalists, INSIDE JOB traces the rise of a rogue industry and unveils the corrosive relationships which have corrupted politics, regulation and academia.

Narrated by Academy Award® winner Matt Damon, INSIDE JOB was made on location in the United States, Iceland, England, France, Singapore, and China.
—————————————————

Great Documentary…very Viewer Friendly to understand what actually happened with all the complicated finance vehicles…ultimately one big Ponzi Scheme.

FYI it shows Iceland had a population of 340,000 ..a GDP of $13 Billion….and after banksters took over BANK losses of $100 BILLION.

After viewing this (108 minutes) you can see that Canada R.E. is HOOPED.

=================================

Also…Vancouver Island and other Islands RE? Also HOOPED. BC Ferries has had the LOWEST ridership in 21 years….too expensive.

#18 DodgedBullet on 07.05.12 at 10:05 pm

Garth,

any concerns about Canadian REITs following residential real estate?

Tucked the fowl in tonight and 3 motherless baby racoons were trying to enter the coop by gnawing through a small opening – cute blighters but we’re probably going to have to kill them.

Ben.

Baby raccoon murderer. No answer for you. — Garth

#19 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 07.05.12 at 10:05 pm

So, the realtors are blaming today’s slowdown on a four year old land transfer tax, and this joker claims that all the government tweaks in the world won’t slow demand because “land use restrictions” are artificially keeping supply low. Do these people really not see the evidence that’s before them or are they just liars?

#20 Calgary's OK on 07.05.12 at 10:06 pm

While most of you guys on this blog are salivating over the prospects of falling real estate prices, Harper government handing out to civil servants $6B in ‘severance’ and they are not even going to be vacating their positions after all! http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/civil-servants-share-dollar6b-severance-without-losing-jobs It is clear now, that the only reason why F reverted mortgage amortization period back to 25 years was to at least partially cancel out effect of these $6B hitting the Real Estate market (lets face it, who in their right mind would invest money into the stock market, even if these money are just given to them for free). On the “bright” side, those poor civil workers “loosing their jobs” will now have an excellent selection of houses priced at $999,000 as soon as new rules will come into effect. So no crush this year, but there is always next year… Hang on tight in there!

#21 Mr Buyer on 07.05.12 at 10:09 pm

Well done. Clear and conscise. Can not be more emphatic without actually assuming the position a crash will most assuredly happen (which is my position). I really feel there was no hedging or support of a soft landing while at the same time not dismissing the outside possibility. While I do not always agree with you I certainly do identify with your thoughts and opinions. I almost bought a farm yesterday (cash). Apparently there are 8 offers in on it but I will not be bidding and asked to be notified when the property actually sells and let them know I have financing in place but I will not be paying the asking price(my wife opposes the idea but she likes the price and could possibly warm up to it. I lived on a small farm outside my hometown as a kid). I will be extremely tight fisted going forward from this point and I am in no hurry to secure a place so most of my 40% to 50% below asking offers are being ignored but not all of them and more and more are being considered as the weeks pass. I am shooting for two years out from this point but nothing is written in stone. An aquaintence informed me their house was for sale but I passed as I did not want to drive a hard bargain with them. My situation does not make buying a nessecity presently.

#22 randman on 07.05.12 at 10:11 pm

Turner nation….

“Do you ever wonder how our corrupted elite leaders sleep at night? Let me tell you.”

3 shots of Crown Royal followed by some roofies …..is my guess

#23 Just Park it on 07.05.12 at 10:12 pm

If I had to predict when the banks lost focus and began lending to anyone who could stick a finger in their nose – I say that change came in 2001 –

At that time, I was looking for our first home, newly married – tired of renting as I had spent 6 years living a nightmare with either living beside scumbag neighbours who partied all night – or scumbag landlords who I only saw on rent day. Had a problem, any problem – use some duct tape was his answer to everything.

Anyways, I had a small blemish on my credit in 1998 with a credit card balance of a mere $2K had fallen off track, a few missed payments came back to haunt me big time years later even though I paid it off in full.

So, wifey and I, making together around $110K back in 2001 – I went to my local bank, having saved 15% for a down payment on a proposed $200K house – thought we were shoe in’s. Two car loans previously from the same bank, never missed a payment – what’s not to like.

To my surprise – and horror, they turned me down flat. Not much of a reason to why. I carried no debt, car paid off, a healthy job and $30K sitting in my bank account. I applied to 3 banks, all said the same thing…No…I was in agony. Renting was not the issue, its was the environment that made me feel down everytime I drove home. And I had 3 different rentals and each had it’s set of circumstances that made me want to give up.

So, late in 2001, I saw a commerical from Scotiabank on how they wanted young families to realize their dream..I applied, and just like that, approved, elated, I mentioned to my previous bank of my approval, and without a moments hesitation – they approved me.

That my friends is where the markets changed (IMHO). It seemed the banks grilled me – one after another and by late summer of 2001, based on the same facts just months earlier, I was a candidate for a mortgage – somewhere, somehow – the banks just changed direction and let this baby build to the mess it’s in today.

Oh, on a final note – (with abit of gloating to boot) – we are just over 2 years left on this mortgage beast and God does it feel good knowing that hard work and commitment has made this small dream a reality!

#24 50% correction predictor on 07.05.12 at 10:13 pm

Let the cleansing begin!!!

#25 Merciless | The Retiring Boomer™ on 07.05.12 at 10:16 pm

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#26 Keeping the Faith on 07.05.12 at 10:19 pm

Hey #15 Calgary’s OK

I’m loooosing my wine cooler all over my imac reading your pathetic blog.

You’re sooooooo right, that’s it, 6 Bil paid out to gov workers are going to prop up the $600 Bil CMHC insured market …here it comes …

IDIOT!!!!

#27 Sebee on 07.05.12 at 10:21 pm

Does anyone remember that punch line Charlie delivered about metrosexuals on 2 1/2 Men? Most accurate definition I ever heard.

And while we’re quoting, here is one from Die Hard just for Toronto – on behalf of all the Vancouverites.
“Welcome to the party, pal!”

#28 Stop the insanity on 07.05.12 at 10:23 pm

Why so tough on realtors? Is it their fault that they didn’t go to university or college and aren’t capable of doing much more than sell houses? Can they help it that people more stupid than them are willing to depart with a ton of cash, assume loads of risk, and give them a nice commission for aiding and abetting them on a journey to hell? Is it their fault that they are so greedy that they will sell something to someone knowing full well that “this won’t end well”? Do you really think that they lie to their clients and the media to further propagate the lifestyle that they have built on the backs of others? If you answered “yes” to any of these questions, then keep on bashing ….

#29 Ferrari321 on 07.05.12 at 10:23 pm

Number 27 … o yea ….

#30 Editor on 07.05.12 at 10:24 pm

Do you know how many Americans are asking in horror, “Didn’t they learn from watching us?”

Sad.

#31 Sebee on 07.05.12 at 10:25 pm

Alan: I’m not gay, I’m metrosexual.
Charlie: That’s just a gay man who can’t get laid.

#32 Mike on 07.05.12 at 10:25 pm

BNN interview with Vancouver realtor claiming he sold his house 4 weeks ago and predicting a Vancouver crash ? :)
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip715413

That follows on the link here last night. — Garth

#33 mike p on 07.05.12 at 10:28 pm

Hi Garth,
enjoying your blog as usual…

Would like to put in a request for your ‘smaller town’ series…Kingston, Ontario please. Sister with few savings getting house horny even tho she’s renting a great place…the usual story i’m sure.

thanks very much!

#34 joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs on 07.05.12 at 10:39 pm

They’re talking about Garth Turner in the mainstream media:

“Sill (sic) this is probably just beginning of the decline in some of the country’s major real estate market, says author and real estate perma-bear Garth Turner. I think it might be over. March, April would have been the time to cash out in Vancouver and probably Toronto as well,” said Mr. Turner. He adds the drop in sales has occurred despite low interest rates and the lure to lock in mortgages ahead of new government rules on loans, something that kicks in Monday.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/05/tepid-numbers-spur-call-to-cash-out-of-housing-market/

#35 Toronto_CA on 07.05.12 at 10:39 pm

Keeping the Faith #15 –

That scenario is spooky because it happened today. One of my employees came in to say bye for the weekend, I asked about his impending move from Hamilton to Barrie. He said it was on hold, because after 3 open houses he couldn’t sell. He said he had reduced the price a bit, but he thinks it’s worth that much so won’t sell. And won’t buy in Barrie. I guess now it’s a game of chicken between those who want to sell only at a high price and those who want to buy at a lower price.

#36 Peter Goesinya on 07.05.12 at 10:42 pm

Watch out for tomorrow at 8:30 awesome time. The June labour force numbers come out.
They’re calling for 5000 employment and unemployment to stay at 7.3%. Not even going to be close.
There’s going to be foreclosures everywhere soon.

I think this is going to be a real eye opener.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2j480t5.png

#37 Property Manager on 07.05.12 at 10:42 pm

The mood in North Van is testy. One strata owner attacked the roofers, another attacked the janitor. Sales and prices coming down and they are freaking.

#38 Superman on 07.05.12 at 10:43 pm

Vancouver Island is the worst offender when it comes to pimping real estate. Oblivious hicks and rednecks over there who have not a clue. They will plunge the market themselves, like a turkey drowns itself in rain, just by rushing to the exit all at once. At least Vancouverites will continue to delay their fate by probably doing another mass withdraw of listings. Except… this time it won’t work for long. So maybe the hicks and rednecks on Vancouver Island aren’t so stupid after all. Oh, and Parksville… it has the largest per capita rate of heart attacks in Canada and every house is built with a an EZ List Scooter on the staircase and one of those step-in bathtubs.

#39 City Slicker on 07.05.12 at 10:47 pm

Garth did the LIBOR scandal from London have anything to do with RE interest rates in Canada? What could the future impact in Canada be. Thx!

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-biggest-financial-scandal-in-history

#40 Ty on 07.05.12 at 10:47 pm

I’m so glad that Winnipeg won’t be affected.

It’s different here. We’re still just catching up.

#41 Superbubble on 07.05.12 at 10:49 pm

“With the market softening and a lot of inventory…there may be no better time to buy than now.”

What a joke.

How is it possible more people don’t see through this logic?

Evidently, further proof Canadians are the dumbest people on earth.

#42 randman on 07.05.12 at 10:50 pm

Ladies and Gentleman

We are now heading into what will be known as history’s worst ever financial downturn. It will be
breathtaking..and everything you know is about to
be turned on it’s head

prepare for extreme turbulance!

winners will be determined as those who lose the least

You will be more concerned with the return OF your capital rather than the return ON your capital

No movie will be shown

Please put your trays and seat backs into an upright position

What is about to happen is what has happened over and over in history

We are not better or different this time

We can add two more items to the ‘death and taxes’ paradigm….greed and fear!!

These are now inevitable and so is war

The landing gear is stuck and the runway lights are out!

It’s part of the evolution process..to separate the wheat
from the chafe …

I’m not a doomer because there is not prepping and you can run but you cannot hide!

You will soon learn to trust no one and belive nothing…. strangely this is how it always should have been.

Songs by Adele will not matter and you may be looking
at your trophy Shizou as your next meal.

The things you are about to see will leave you breathless

Randman out

#43 Netcentric on 07.05.12 at 10:56 pm

Speaking of human nature if you think the second quarter turned into a buyers market take a look at what happens at the end of July every year in terms of house shoppers, courtesy of Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:RLEST

I came to Garth’s blog out of an interest in something else – the impact of demographics on housing and how that will effect the retirement plans of older Canadians. Take a look at this next graph if you want to see a “buyers market” for the next ten years in the making: http://wp.me/p2klV5-gy

I rent in Victoria BC. I had friends put a house up for sale this year to have only one or two people A MONTH come to take a look. It was reasonably priced but they have since given up trying to sell and taken the listing down.

The point of that last paragraph is that I believe the baby boomer sell off shown in that graph linked above has begun. Or as one realtor put it in “The Epiphany” post below, “It’s time to cash out”. All together now.

#44 Guy_in_Regina on 07.05.12 at 10:56 pm

When Garth-balls is quoted in the Financial Post, along with a maverick realtor, portending doom, you know the piper is about to be paid!

Should be an interesting 24 months.

#45 sanddancer on 07.05.12 at 10:57 pm

Just had a revealing conversation with a guy i work with..his wife has been a Vancouver realtor for 24yrs and she has not sold a listing in 6 months !!, she has never seen it like this before… says they are hurting.
A friend of theres is a morgage broker he also is hurting badly and is struggling to ” stay afloat”
They also knows a developer who has a development for sale in the W.10th and Alma area and says he is struggling to sell anything.
And this is just the beginning !!!!!!!!

#46 TurnerNation on 07.05.12 at 10:57 pm

If you cannot beat them then join them?

Power Corp’s (POW.TO) yielding 4.8% with a number of its preferred shares throwing off 5-6%.

#47 So it begins.... on 07.05.12 at 10:57 pm

I think it’s more than Sales going down 10-20 % to start the decline.
In the first half of 2011 sales were also down around 20%. However inventory was down the same amount.
Today we have the perfect storm 1. amor rate being reduced which is like a 1% rise in interest rates 2. sales going down ( when you look at the first half of June and the the end of June you will notice that it (sales) is starting to fall at a faster rate towards the end of june) 3. Inventory is rising unlike the first half of 2011 were sales and inventory both fell, today inventory is rising and sales are dropping.

No way will sales this year beat last years stats, the msm will soon take notice

#48 randman on 07.05.12 at 10:58 pm

For those still believing in the housing market…..
and in fact all markets today….

““Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong. When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted.

It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn’t fit in with the core belief.”

Frantz Fanon”

OUT

#49 Saskatoon-Living on 07.05.12 at 11:00 pm

Great link to see what $370,000 gets you in Canada. The house in Regina says it all about how stupid prices have got here in SK. Looking forward to the Skatch post Garth!!

http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/homebuyersguide/gallery/best-deals-in-real-estate

#50 randman on 07.05.12 at 11:00 pm


05 July 2012
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Metals Rigging Worse Than LIBOR

“Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong. When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted.

It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn’t fit in with the core belief.”

Frantz Fanon

“Or one may say that there were no real human villains; that given the economic and political cues, actors would have been in the wings to come on and play the parts which circumstances dictated.

Certainly there were many others as reprehensible and irresponsible as those who played the leading roles. The German people were the victims. The battle, as one who survived it explained, left them dazed and inflation-shocked.

They did not understand how it had happened to them, and who the foe was who had defeated them.”

Adam Fergusson, When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse

The loss of confidence in their money, their fiat currency, which to some people becomes the touchstone for all value in their life, is almost too difficult to adequately describe, and for most people too awful, unthinkable, to fully understand.

And yet it happens. I have seen it happen first hand in Russia. It is happening now again in Europe and elsewhere. And it will bring a sea change, and an anger and despair that is hard to imagine in advance in its enormity.

The work of one’s life can be stolen in an instant by the modern money masters and their criminal accomplices, with a few touches on the keyboard and a newswire release. If you do not believe it is possible, have a discussion some time with one of the account holders at MF Global, or the holders of a tech stock post bubble.

This is the pernicious nature of a fraud, because it robs not only the confidence in the peculiar aspects of the con itself, but undermines the very confidence that allows the commerce of society among people to continue.

All the transactions of life are based on some level of confidence in the honesty of measures and the integrity of contracts and product representations.

And if that trust is sufficiently undermined, shaken to its foundations, the people will at first freeze up in fear and stop buying and selling, and then eventually rise up in anger looking for redress and justice, if they are still free to think and to act.

And there are those that would welcome that crisis, and attempt to use it for their own ends. Anarchists. Demagogues. Oligarchs. They would subvert the Constitution and the rule of law, and create a new way for themselves and their adherents, a grab for resources and power, thereby subjugating the common people, whom they secretly despise, to their will to power.”

#51 Calgary's OK on 07.05.12 at 11:01 pm

#25 Keeping the Faith on 07.05.12 at 10:19 pmHey #15 Calgary’s OK
I’m loooosing my wine cooler all over my imac reading your pathetic blog.
You’re sooooooo right, that’s it, 6 Bil paid out to gov workers are going to prop up the $600 Bil CMHC insured market …here it comes …
IDIOT!!!

Keeping the Faith, loose the wine cooler when posting, may be then your comments will start making sense. Calling your opponent an IDIOT definitely helps to prove your point during debate, everybody knows that. Have a good night, do not operate heavy machinery.

#52 Furst on 07.05.12 at 11:04 pm

Taking the plunge – A poem by Furst

I see it now, the cliff is near
New home owners, rife with fear
Buyers sitting back, beer in hand
Waiting for lower prices to buy some land
Sales are down, while listings swell
A house should only be, a place to dwell

Not traded like options, in the pit
Not swooned over, like a Hollywood hit
Not bought, because of marketing swag
Not a game, like Poker or Tag
Not coveted, as Golem did for the ring
Not purchased, simply for the songs realtor’s sing

The winds of change are finally here
Garth and his readers, will let out a collective cheer
History will vindicate this pathetic blog
Garth’s years of posts, have been a long slog
Many have laughed, but are silent now
Property will become the next slaughtered cow

Buyers, be patient and wait your turn
Liquidity, not home ownership is what you should yearn
Just wait, you’ll buy when the time is right
You shall prevail on sellers’ plight
Now turn off the computer, sleep easy tonight
Your world in coming months, will shine bright

#53 abraxas on 07.05.12 at 11:05 pm

This is so absurd! When I came to North America 12 years ago houses here were much cheaper than in Europe and I just assumed that that’s because they were made much more cheaply (wood framing instead of masonry, particle boards instead of plywood etc). Turns out it had nothing to do with the quality and just the demand/supply equation for both money and houses.

I can’t believe the absurdity of it all. A brick built house in Germany that will last for centuries is cheaper than a plastic clad particle board piece of junk in Canada that needs constant maintenance just to keep it from falling apart.

#54 IFeeltheUrge2Comment on 07.05.12 at 11:05 pm

The reason why I read this blog, besides the logical and reasonable RE advice, is the sheer ultra-alpha-male tone and totally entertaining comments like these:

“Vancouver Island, where all the Boomers from Mississauga used to go to die…”

“…natives in the 905 outback…”

“Housing will suddenly be like Nortel.”

“Shacks, empty lots with used-condom decor and battered bungs rented by bikers are suddenly ‘worth’ a million. And then, like flicking a switch, it ends.”

Even though everything you say is totally inapplicable to my existence as a Canadian, because I own nothing but debt as I’m rotting under the burden of endless student loans, your blog’s flickin’ hilarious! I actually look forward to it every morning with my caffeine fix!

Thanks for your perspective!

If/when my $ituation ever changes, I’ll know who to call for investment advice,
Cheers!

#55 Djb on 07.05.12 at 11:05 pm

Like in all markets, it is the escalator up and the elevator down.

#56 MarcFromOttawa on 07.05.12 at 11:12 pm

Great post Garth.

You know the CBC is getting desperate to make Harper look bad when they publish an editorial about the 2011 PSAC collective agreement that saw public servants lose a benefit they’ve had since the 1970s.

This news is atleast 1 year old and completely seperate from the thousands of people losing their jobs so far this year.

A bit of perspective.

#57 randman on 07.05.12 at 11:14 pm

Some Know. Many do not.

LIBOR = London Inter Bank Offered Rate.

The LIBOR is the interest rate guide at which banks lend to each other. Many other interest rates are calculated using the LIBOR, such as mortgage rates, forward rate agreements, futures contracts, interest rate swaps, floating rate notes, syndicated loans, currencies, (especially the US dollar) and over-the-counter derivatives.

Every day, the British Bankers Association (BBA) surveys a panel of internationally active banks, asking them to provide the rates at which they could borrow “reasonable amounts” in a particular currency and maturity at 11:00 GMT. The BBA then eliminates the highest and lowest quartiles of the distribution and averaging the remaining quotes, to arrive at the LIBOR fix rate.

Around $350 trillion of lending and derivatives is priced of LIBOR. If misconduct by banks caused LIBOR to increase by a mere one tenth of one basis point (0.001%), this amounts to $35 billion a year in extra interest.

Barkleys, RBS and the Bof E are just the tip of the iceberg. More revelations to come.

Watch the LIBOR over this next month as it is now under the global financial microscope, as rates will invariably rise, which is not good for the fragile global economy that is showing concrete signs of slowing down.

#58 a prairie dawg on 07.05.12 at 11:16 pm

Kevin O rips this realtor a new one on DD.

It’s also full of commercials, so get ready to mute your volume.

It starts close to the 25 minute mark. Enjoy.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/ID/2174567426/

#59 randman on 07.05.12 at 11:17 pm

Lyrics from the Eagles say it all…..

“Weavin’ down the American highway Through the litter and the wreckage and the cultural junk Bloated with entitlement, loaded on propaganda Now we’re drivin’ dazed and drunk

Been down the road to Damascus, the road to Mandalay Met the ghost of Caesar on the Appian way

He said, “It’s hard to stop this bingein’ once you get a taste But the road to empire is a bloody stupid waste”

Behold the bitten apple, the power of the tools But all the knowledge in the world is of no use to fools And it’s a long road out of Eden

#60 Fleabitten Monkey on 07.05.12 at 11:17 pm

Can’t wait for BPOE’s post tonight. But I will say it was a lovely day in Vancouver today……maybe we’ll get another 2 weeks of summer sunshine, if we’re lucky.

#61 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.05.12 at 11:26 pm

From the Realtor in the clip: “Buy now, because you can’t tell when the bottom will be”

hmmm…. so, if we’ve just hit the top within the last 6-12 months, I’m pretty sure the bottom is a ways off.

just sayin’

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.05.12 at 11:28 pm

BPOE:
Big
Price reductions
On
Everything

#63 Xerglacia on 07.05.12 at 11:28 pm

#18 DodgedBullet:

If I recall correctly (and it’s entirely possible I don’t, so correct me if that’s the case), a month or three ago Garth was of the opinion that they’d be fine because, as confidence in owning real estate decreased, fewer people would own, but they’d still have to live somewhere, therefore they’d rent, which would mean that the occupancy percentage of the buildings the REITs owned should go up, which ought to make them more money.

#64 XKR on 07.05.12 at 11:33 pm

How do you short residential real estate?

#65 Snowboid on 07.05.12 at 11:35 pm

#43 Netcentric on 07.05.12 at 10:56 pm…

A couple of our former neighbours in Victoria have done the same thing – pulled their listings.

One that was comparable to our former home had an asking price already lowered to $15K less than our net proceeds. This happened to be the one that complained the loudest that we didn’t ask enough when we listed in early 2010!

Also noticed that listings in the area we look at in Kelowna are down 10% in the last 20 days – these places aren’t sold – they are being pulled off the market.

Some have been re-listed for less or the same price with a different realtor.

It’s going to be an interesting 2-3 months, stock up on popcorn!

#66 Musings on 07.05.12 at 11:41 pm

A stampeding herd does not stop to graze.

On the way up the house markets slowly builds and new owners ‘feed’ on all the succulent price rises.

On the way down, its panic, and it is every beast for himself. This is the dark side of herd behavior.

Once a market decidedly crashes, it is akin to some one yelling “fire” in a crowded theatre … its all shoving elbows and kicking knees for the exit.

No one stands in line to buy a ticket in a movie theatre that is burning down.

No one wants to be a buyer.

#67 City Slicker on 07.05.12 at 11:45 pm

#32 Mike on 07.05.12 at 10:25 pm

BNN interview with Vancouver realtor claiming he sold his house 4 weeks ago and predicting a Vancouver crash ? :)
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip715413

That follows on the link here last night. — Garth
———————————————————
At the end he says he’s getting back in Oct/Nov, well that’ll be a swift crash, then re-inflate.

#68 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 07.05.12 at 11:48 pm

Hmmm….

Where’s CrowdedElevatorFartz and BPOE?

Aha…. on Smoking Man’s dingy

#69 neo on 07.05.12 at 11:53 pm

Be careful Garth. From May 2010 to May 2011 sales fell 11 of 12 months in GTA. The problem was inventory still remained very tight. The difference in Vancouver was that sales slid and inventory ramped up at the same time so prices began to and will continue to fall. Falling sales is only half the story. Prices always tail off in the Fall and Winter.

Much like in Vancouver this year. We won’t know until Spring comes and sales and prices are off 10%+ that we have gotten that real capitulation.

#70 45north on 07.05.12 at 11:54 pm

Property Manager: One strata owner attacked the roofers, another attacked the janitor.

pretty funny

#71 Jamaican_Gal on 07.05.12 at 11:57 pm

Bless my sleepy eyes, it’s Furst! Another gem that sums it all up perfectly. Precise and lovely, Furst. Thanks!

#72 Serbia - Vancouver Lady on 07.06.12 at 12:00 am

http://youtu.be/__ebR_8UKAY ;)

#73 TRT on 07.06.12 at 12:00 am

Reading comments here makes one think we are in a crash…

In reality, I’ll believe prices are crashing when sold stickers stop appearing on houses in my neighbourhood. When a house that sold for $600,000 last year sells for even $550,000…then I’ll believe it.

Average price is going down because less high end homes are being traded.

#74 Frustrated Kiwi on 07.06.12 at 12:15 am

Please send some of your negative winds of change down here. A new listing today is one of the most delusional I’ve seen. Owner wants $1.6M
http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential/for-sale/auction-491174736.htm
Property is valued at $950K
I don’t think he’ll get it, but it shows mood in Auckland housing. :-(

#75 An Cat Dubh on 07.06.12 at 12:23 am

I just found out my nephew and fiance who are renting in Whistler, want to buy a condo next year. When my sister gives me his email address, I know who’s website will have a link and I will ask him to read as many posts as possible.

Now with cities having to cut costs, Penticton got rid of 2 positions which paid 100k. Prince George, which has 75 employees making 100k, still is very top heavy. PG has no money to fix roads yet has money to put toxic fluoride in the water. It gets funnier, the town of Nelson, B.C. has a “climate coordinator”. Wonder what she does all day and what she gets paid? WT!?!?

#76 Carpe Diem on 07.06.12 at 12:25 am

Being in Ottawa I’ve seen plenty of emotions in the air. I’m not a civil servant, never will be – those are loser boomers in the end.

But I see posts on this site against people who take less cash to work for government to end up with a pension. Unless you have have to aptitude to be part of the top 5% … that’s pretty smart.

I know people that have worked hard for 10+ years being surplussed recently. They are taking it hard since they worked hard but one slash in the budget meant they must start a new career.

Personally, I do that as a consultant all the time … yahoo!

But you must consider people who work hard but get shafted … because the folks that keep the jobs are the lazy boomers with the seniority.

As I told my friends, don’t worry, they won’t be able to handle your work and they will get you as a consultant for a lot more in your pocket.

A couple of days ago one neighbor, got this opportunity …..

If you are a gen-x, the world is yours. The boomers badly manage budgets & projects require consultants to make things happen.

Gen-xers have the years of experience and expertise to make things happen. Meanwhile boomers and their kids (that have no experience or skills) will always need the Gen-xer who make things happen.

All this to say … the folks being let go are not the ones that should. Keep the young gen-xers, retire (or let go) the boomers that have costed tax payers far too much in the last 30 years.

But alas that won’t happen when the boomer controlled Harper governement gives loser boomer CPP at 65 and puts a broomstick up gen-xers !$$e$ to
67.

The only solution is to minimize taxes and CPP since boomers will eat it with health care and pensions before Gen-Xers ever see that.

The Echo generation have no clue the mess their parents are leaving to them to clean … so the Gen-xers will be able to consultant them with that someday and ensure to leave a wonderful legacy to their kids.

#77 Tim on 07.06.12 at 12:26 am

Garth,
you were quoted in the media as the “perma-bear” on real estate. Eventually the market will drop significantly and you will finally be right!

More important to be right in advance of an event than after. How hard is that to understand? — Garth

#78 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 07.06.12 at 12:29 am

No bubble in history has ever not burst.

Maybe Canada will make history and be the first to buck history. We’ll see.

Read:

Bubbles – Extreme Maker and Breaker of Wealth
http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/bubbles-extreme-maker-and-breaker-of.html

#79 Puzni on 07.06.12 at 12:33 am

RE agent article; everything Garth told us:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/05/tepid-numbers-spur-call-to-cash-out-of-housing-market/

#80 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.06.12 at 12:36 am


“Within two hours every school in the area was shut. Despite six inches of snow, on that day Toronto became the first Canadian city to pass its very own land transfer tax, substantially increasing the cost of a house.” — Everyone whisper loudly now, “Conspiracy Theory!” See how desperate cities are to raise funds?
*
#7 TurnerNation — “Right or wrong, they believe there is no ‘heaven’, that this life is a finality. Therefore, live it up now! Do what thou whilst (google that one).”

Good perspective. There is only one heaven, and this is it. We are so far removed from true reality that most don’t have an inkling of what heaven is like.

What makes death such a gorgeous experience is that one proves to oneself the continuation of life, so there are no such things as near death experiences. It’s simply these uniforms we put on in the morning (birth), and take off at night (death).

But life always moves ahead. In looking at a cone, only the lower psychic regions can be physically described (As above, so below) — Physical, Astral, Causal, Mental and Etheric Planes where creation is finished, so each level is quite similar to the previous.

Positive and negative karma exist (Christianity calls it sinfulness and redemption), but it’s generally known as the Spiritual Law of Cause and Effect. Interesting post.
*
Ine one pic, The US budget; BoE pushing pensioners through QE, and When Will they call it a depression? Job Cuts Nice to be told you’re no longer needed while fighting wars; Hidden Rare Earth Elements war heats up; Gordon Brown’s Gold Remember him? EZone weak? Heck, everything’s weak! Plus EZone is falling to pieces; Walmart Killing America while supporting China? This will be a lotta fun in the coming months; Stagnant Sales hurt retail; Shrinking commercial paper market; The Ultimate Oil Currency; Western RE in a single pic.
*
2:21 clip Heavenly treat for star gazers; The King and I Not really. Family cheated out of royalty (similar to banxters); Mayan Calendar The Mayan Age (supposedly) finished Dec. 23, 2011, and now there are the Aztecs and Incas who finish in a few years; Google Consolidating operations? Google No more support for Opera and Cisco Something must be afoot — all these computer glitches at roughly the same time; Unprecedented Lawsuit By a Cdn. as well; Manitoba Hwy. Blasted by crater? CERN Yes, a politico does have a conscience. No, really! ‘Quake Map since 1898; Bacon Burger Not for the faint of heart; Attack ‘Copters America helping China.

#81 Apocalypse 2010 on 07.06.12 at 12:41 am

#40 Ty on 07.05.12 at 10:47 pm
I’m so glad that Winnipeg won’t be affected.

It’s different here. We’re still just catching up.

When the world ends, Winnipeg will still be around for another 10 years, so it is different!

Just got back from there today. Worst planned city in the developed world with the worst roads in the developed world, and the slowest service at Tim’s in the developed world, is Winnipeg a part of the developed world?

#82 gloom and doom on 07.06.12 at 12:42 am

hey the guy on hot property say real estate in toronto is gonna still go up 3% showed you garth .. the man with the suit says its allways time to buy in a hot market ….showed you!!!

#83 Apocalypse 2010 on 07.06.12 at 12:46 am

#45 sanddancer on 07.05.12 at 10:57 pm
Just had a revealing conversation with a guy i work with..his wife has been a Vancouver realtor for 24yrs and she has not sold a listing in 6 months !!, she has never seen it like this before… says they are hurting.
A friend of theres is a morgage broker he also is hurting badly and is struggling to ” stay afloat”
They also knows a developer who has a development for sale in the W.10th and Alma area and says he is struggling to sell anything.
And this is just the beginning !!!!!!!!

This will not end well was the mantra on this blog and a few other lonesome voices out there; but how UNWELL it is going to get is something even Garth dare not voice!

#84 Questioning Calgary stats on 07.06.12 at 12:54 am

#20 Calgary’s OK, you are dreaming. Are you a realtor? Most people who will be getting money will be those who have worked many years (and likely have houses already) and not potential first time homebuyers in general.

This will not affect house prices at all.

#85 Calgary Car Guy on 07.06.12 at 1:05 am

Hey Furst! Love your poems. Keep it up!

#86 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.06.12 at 1:26 am

Rent Bubble in the U.S.?
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/rent-increases-suggest-buying-is-becoming-a-better-deal/?src=recg

This seems like the type of sign you’d look for to know when the market has bottomed — rent prices rising far faster than house prices.

#87 Roial1 on 07.06.12 at 1:30 am

Okay, enough of the chucking sh*t at Lotus land.(Vancouver Island)
It started here on the North Island many months ago. I noticed it as early as last Feb. that sales dried up.
I have just one thing to say about a crash.

I’m gone fishin’ and thats my final answer.

It can rain as much as it wants on the realturds parade and I don’t care.

A beer, a boat, a tight line. Thats reality my friends.

Good night from “The Real Lotus Land.”

#88 cynically on 07.06.12 at 1:37 am

Question from XKR — How do you short sell real estate? Answer: Sell property you don’t own and take the money and run. Simple and probably safe too because the courts won’t do anything to you if you get yourself a good shyster who knows how to play the “justice” system in Canada.

#89 Even realtors don't trust realtors on 07.06.12 at 1:40 am

The dirt never stops flowing in Vancouver, land of sleeze like Mos Isly in Star Wars.,…

I don’t write this scummy stuff, just report it.
Quote from a local condo ad that Garth posted, in Vancouver at Cambie & 7th days ago..
“Over 60% of our homes are under $439,900, your clients can own one of these homes starting at just $280/month”

$280 a month on a $369 condo requires around $280 down!!!!! That on a variable 30 year!!!!!
Call the realtor and asked for details, your payments for the next 6 months are only $280, after that, it is whatever your mortgage is…
So, if you are soo POOR you can only afford $280 a month, should your really buy a condo?????
( or $6000 cash back on purchase)
Is this misleading or is it just Business as Usual…??

http://vancouver.goeasylist.com/10124.html

Meanwhile in the USA:

the real estate cartel is there to serve themselves….. not you!
See the rage on this US site

http://www.realtorsucks.com/

Not as good as this local archive:

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/

You can’t make this stuff up

Oh, I forgot Best Place on Earth…. can’t even ride a bike here..

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/bik/3049033125.html

When you believe you are in the BPOE, it disillusions you to think it is the BPOE, until you come back to your car, and find everything missing.

BPOE!!!

#90 Mister Obvious on 07.06.12 at 1:42 am

#53 abraxas

“I can’t believe the absurdity of it all. A brick built house in Germany that will last for centuries is cheaper than a plastic clad particle board piece of junk in Canada that needs constant maintenance just to keep it from falling apart.”
—————-

Quite right Abby. But in North America you don’t buy a house, you buy a piece of land. Or, a piece of air, in the case of a strata titled property. If a house happens to occupy that land (or, a concrete shoebox happens to enclose that air), it’s called ‘an improvement’ which gets lumped in with the deal. Just remember, they’re not making any more land, or any more air for that matter.

Exception: In Vancouver you won’t buy a piece of land or a piece of air. In all likelihood, it will be a piece of something else.

#91 MP on 07.06.12 at 1:45 am

Here is what we are up against in the North. Instead of listing homes for sale, people are listing want ads. Seems a tad backwards? Canada has a long way to go until sentiment changes.

“We are looking to buy a 3+ bedroom home with garage on Rivett or Kasteel. Ready to make deal on the right home. Would prefer 3-4 bedroom with double garage and backyard. Willing to spend up to $600,000 subject to home appraisal. We are not affiliated with, or related to, any real estate agency, rather we are just a family who really wants to live in this area of Yellowknife. If you have been thinking about selling, or know of someone who may be, please contact us.”

#92 Benchwarmer on 07.06.12 at 2:08 am

Shhh do you hear that? It’s Rita MacNeil.

#93 Jay Currie on 07.06.12 at 2:36 am

Well in my leafy Victoria suburb a tear down rancher was offered at 1.475 and, a couple of months later, sold at 1.075. That has been the only sale on the Dog Walk Index. However, there are four new listings and one withdrawn listing as we switch from Junuary to the Summer week.

One thing about having gone through the 1980-82 crash is that you realize that people will cling to their belief that their house really is worth 3X in spite of the market saying 2X. This lasts for a while and then, as rates rise and buyers are scarce, they will drop to 2.5X as the market itself goes to 1.75X. They will chase the market down convinced that their house/block/neighbourhood is very special indeed.

It is not until there is full panic that owner expectations meet market reality.

And, to be realistic, if you are a leading edge boomer and your retirement plan is your 1.5 million dollar paid for house, selling at 1.1 hurts. Though not as much as at 750K.

#94 kevsta on 07.06.12 at 2:40 am

@XKR #64 “how do I short..?” ..some ideas here.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/697261-the-way-to-play-canadian-housing-market-bust

I’m personally thinking about the banks “that never fail to deliver” ..because one day, they will.

#95 Buy? Curious? on 07.06.12 at 2:51 am

@ Mike P 33

Nobody cares about small towns. It’s the shallow end of the Canadian gene pool. And don’t sound shocked either. Most of them are spending their free time camping staring at a camp fire, drinking beer, listening to Nickelback then nodding at each other, mumbling, “This is the life.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0DU4DoPP4

#96 ShockednAwed on 07.06.12 at 3:19 am

Finally the rekoning is here.
Imagine in 1980 with interest rates at 12.5% ( that was a good rate) that you wanted to by a $25,000 car for 700/month but interest rates drop to 2.9% so $700 will support $100000. Did car dealers raise their prices 4x. No but housing prices increased because we could borrow more not because we earned or had more. This will end poorly.

#97 FTP - First Time Poster on 07.06.12 at 3:33 am

The current housing melt that is underway can be summed up as follows:

Better to be 2 years too early than 5 minutes too late!

#98 Aussie Roy on 07.06.12 at 3:42 am

Jimmy
on 07.05.12 at 2:35 pm

Always remember “It’s different now” is no less valid a statement that “the bubble is going to burst soon”. Anyone who thinks they can accurately identify a true bubble and predict its collapse is deluded. Hindsight is required.

………………………………………………………………………….

I agree it’s not possible to know when a bubble will burst but disagree with “can’t easily see a bubble until it bursts”.

You may wish to study some of the economists who did warn the public about the pending US crash and GFC in general. Maybe even how they saw it and could you use the same principals to spot other bubbled markets.

You said “Anyone who thinks they can accurately identify a true bubble and predict its collapse is deluded”.

The only ones who are deluded are those who can’t and refuse to see a bubble. I suggest those who predicted the GFC and the global house price bubble did it using logic and certainly they were not under any kind of deusional.

Paul Revere award given to economists who saw the GFC before it happened

Keen, Roubini and Baker have been voted to be, more than all others, the three economists who if the powers of the world had listened to, the Global Financial Collapse could have been avoided.

http://rwer.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/keen-roubini-and-baker-win-revere-award-for-economics-2/

Read Steve Keens blog, spotting a bubble isn’t that hard. It’s only slightly more difficult than spotting the delusional before they say “it’s different here”.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

#99 Yulyyz on 07.06.12 at 5:03 am

It’s the second month the TREB monthly sales blurb mentions the Toronto Land Transfer Tax-so desperate they are. It makes me crazy that some people will fall for that lie, oh yeah that’s why more people are buying in 905, not because the prices are illogical in 416? Anyone who thinks the TO LTT has anything to do with this disaster we are heading into, should perhaps think about good old fashioned Municipal tax comparisons. In many cases, on an average house- in 2 or 3 years the steeper Muni tax you pay in 905, will easily wipe out the amount of the extra Land Transfer Tax. It’s the insane prices that are causing the shift, plain and simple.

When I think back to 1993, when I moved out of my Mom and Dad’s… I was making $8 an hour, had about 6k I had saved for a downpayment, and I could not qualify in any way for the nicer, bigger 1 bedroom condos going for about 80k. Maybe I was too young (25), just over a year in my current job. None of the big banks would lend the money without a cosignature. Then along came a 60k bank owned condo in the heart of Old Mtl with a side view to Notre Dame, it was tiny – 500sf… But it was cute and a 15min walk to work, I could come home, have lunch and watch the Flintstones – Perfect. Somehow, in their desperation they would do the financing. I offered 58, financing for 52+insurance and off I went. When the mortgage was Up for renewal 3 years later, everyone was ready to lend. Hard to imagine such an impossibility to get a loan when you were young and had a low salary, and no credit history.

#100 I'm stupid on 07.06.12 at 6:43 am

Has anyone noticed the resentment of sellers after their home is sold? Everyone at some point in their life has sold something, wether it be a car, furniture or a multitude of other items they no longer want or need. The seller is usually grateful but not with housing. The opposite occurs, they no longer maintain the property after an accepted offer is made. They stop cutting the grasss, they walk on the Brazilian hardwood floors with there shoes etc. I can’t understand why. Is it jealousy, resentment, greed or hate? It turns otherwise nice people into monsters. It’s like they do things that subconsciously make them feel like they got the better deal. When Garth says Realestate is the most emotional asset he’s right.

#101 John on 07.06.12 at 6:47 am

Anyone catch the low relevance of this paragraph?

“In some Californian suburbs, prices fell by 70%. In Las Vegas, prices fell 65%, in Phoenix and Daytona Beach they dropped 60%. Rather than a gentle landing, five years of price increases were erased in eighteen months. Millions had their homes foreclosed and the tidal wave of defaults threw the banking system into chaos.

Could this happen in Canada? Of course. It’s possible.”
—————

Wait a minute. The argument made isn’t working. To return to reality, once again, you’re going to need a lot more context.

The US real estate market only fell as little as it did due to the protection from collapsing the thing that caused the real estate run-up. Massive creation of funny money from derivatives. And bailouts. And market manipulation.

Not mentioning this?

Then you’re no longer talking about real estate or the economy or trends or any kind of real analysis.

Plus, funny money and money printing overall today…and undealt with derivatives…will have much less ability to float fake “net worth” mirrored in false real estate values. Add to that a number of other economic global realities mentioned and ignored over and over again in this blog. Systematically. Blocking an open debate.

Canadian real estate has almost nothing to do with local dynamics. The sheeple ( now a mainstream term) were used for bankster ( now a mainstream term) corruption.

And it’s been going on for a long long time.

The real question is, what is the value of a dumbed down sheeple (shperson?) when he’s no longer able to offer anything to the ponzi? And, to top it off he gets uppity about being disconnected from numbed up Canadian economic life support? And…he “wakes up” and decides he was a “victim” ( having consumed like a milk-fed veal for decades)?

Hmmm. The “system” isn’t going to apply “democratic principles” when that unfolds. Who would be leading that charge?

#102 Aussie Roy on 07.06.12 at 7:07 am

Aussie Headlines

With renovations and housing starts at historical lows.

Kitchen company calls in administrators

The company has 20 stores across the nation that operate under the brands Kitchen Connection, Wallspan Kitchen Connections and Impala Kitchen Connection.

There are stores in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane.

HBL Mann Judd in Sydney has confirmed it was appointed as administrator late last week.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-05/renovators-in-limbo-after-kitchen-company-calls-in-administrato/4112536

Govt desperate for revenue looks at new taxes.

SYDNEY property owners face a new annual levy of $300 and drivers could be hit with higher car registration costs under options being considered by the NSW government to overhaul how fire and emergency services are funded.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ministers-mull-property-slug-of-300-rise-in-rego-fees-20120705-21k8h.html

#103 So it begins.... on 07.06.12 at 7:09 am

#23 just park it

I agree , also condo sales centers don,t do credit checks they just take your cash deposit

#104 bigrider on 07.06.12 at 7:11 am

Great post today Garth.

I forwarded the link to your site to many this morning.

I want nothing more than the religion (cult) of real estate worship to die a horrible death.

An individuals money belongs in his portfolio/savings, where it can generate a return and where he/she can lean on it if need be to live, not tied up in an inefficient and expensive pile of bricks and lumber.

I own a home, mortgage free, in the GTA and want nothing more than to see it’s “price” drop along side everyone else’s

#105 Onemorething on 07.06.12 at 7:29 am

what else is good ole’ Carol Crabb gonna say!

Condos in VIC to go to $179K, that $569K lowered to 520K wont sell for another year Marco Buddy! Better price at $479K before you cant sell it! Bottom 3 years 269-299K!

And then look at this place, what a freak show, this will never sell!

#106 Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 07.06.12 at 7:30 am

#52 Furst

Bravo Furst! Another one hit out of the park. Believe it or not, Cyrus will be reading your poem over the Sunnyvale speaker system tonight. He has promised to park the gun at home and not get into a scrap with Ricky. Your poems are even inspiring good behaviour in Sunnyvale. The SASTGFBDCParty will really be enhanced with your presence and poems. Keep ’em coming Furst!

#107 House Horny Housewife on 07.06.12 at 7:53 am

Garth,

What do you think about the theory expressed in the news piece by the realtor that people are waiting to see if prices will come down further after the banking changes have taken effect ?

If I were a buyer, I might certainly do this, thinking that this will take out a certain number of buyers and slow down the market even more. After all, buyers are competing with other buyers. Less buyers, more choice and more power, right ?

Nevertheless, a house is worth what a house is worth and if you want to sell your house, you have no choice but to price it correctly and wait and see. I believe that if you have a property that is truly worth something and you put it on the market at a fair price, you will eventually sell it when the right buyer comes along (ie. someone who wants what you are selling .. there are other reasons why buyers keep looking past your house, besides the dollars and cents).

As for recouping what you paid or whatever, well that cannot enter into the equation for the price that you set because it has nothing to do with market value. Sure if you spent money on upgrades and maintenance this will inevitably make your home more attractive but you have to compare it to the competition and if give a buyer either the same or more than your competition but at a lower price … well then … SOLD !

Buyers aren’t stupid either (although looking at the Toronto and Vancouver markets, I may have to revise that statement). They shop around and know exactly what is out there. AND they know what they are looking for and what they need (again, Toronto and Vancouver excepted).

As for interest rates, I doubt we will have a 2 percent increase overnight as this is the worst thing the feds could do to keep the economy from going into a major deep freeze. However, interest rates can only go in one direction and that is UP. This means that one has to be prepared for this or risk having to take on a night job just to stay afloat. A gradual one percent increase over the next couple of years is not out of the question.

Perhaps these gentle warnings will ring a bell for some and get them to get their house in order (no pun intended) financially speaking. This is certainly what the government is trying to do. Sometimes the gentle nudging doesn’t work and more of a shove is needed. Let us hope not.

HHHW

#108 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.12 at 8:03 am

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.05.12 at 11:28 pm
—————————————————
lol

BP(R)OE

silent ‘R’.

#109 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.12 at 8:14 am

#3 Toronto_CA on 07.05.12 at 9:41 pm
——————————————–
For you misinformed people, the severance buyout of the PSAC employees was a way for the government to save money over the long term.

PSAC gave up a benefit (the accumulation of 1 week pay per year worked) for a slightly higher inflationary pay raise. By law, the currently working PSAC employees are entitled to their accumulated severance benefits.

And by the way, when severance was negotiated in, years ago, the union gave up a big concession. Thus, the government has now received two big concessions, essentially for the price of a tiny pay raise.

#110 The guy from corner store on 07.06.12 at 8:22 am

Good morning Garth,

Just read in Montreal newspaper ” La Presse ” for the first 6 months of 2012, 336 sales were completed of which all of those sales were made with an average of 5k $ over the asking sales price by the seller. An increase of 17% compare to 2011 for the same period.

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/quebec/201207/06/01-4541231-rebond-de-la-surenchere-dans-le-residentiel-a-montreal.php

I just came back this spring from abroad and a friend told me about your blogue. Having been abroad for the past 4 years I was chocked to find out how expensives everything was. I was going to buy something new….. I am now an happy renter and i am so glad i discovered your blogue. Thanks for all your help, i am reading your blogue every day now and glad I took the right decision by rading your blogue.

#111 VT on 07.06.12 at 8:27 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/05/tepid-numbers-spur-call-to-cash-out-of-housing-market/

Even realtors are selling and renting.

#112 eaglebay - Parksville on 07.06.12 at 8:32 am

#38 Superman on 07.05.12 at 10:43 pm

You forgot one thing, Oceanside has the best looking “chicks” in all of Canada.
Clueless.

#113 Peter Goesinya on 07.06.12 at 8:35 am

dam, i was dead wrong

#114 Timbo on 07.06.12 at 8:37 am

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0706/euribor-three-month-rate-hits-record-low.html

“Spain’s cost of borrowing was 7.016 at lunchtime while Italy’s 10-year-bond yield was 6.042.”

Train wreck in the making…………

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/06/us-jobs-report-released-live

“the private sector payrolls rose by 84,000 and the total non-farm payrolls rose by 80,000 – meaning that government job losses remain a small drag on the employment market.

Manufacturing created 11,000 jobs.

Obviously this is bad news for the Obama administration – that makes the second quarter of this year the weakest quarter in terms of jobs growth since the height of the recession.”

sputter, backfire, sputter…………..

#115 robert james on 07.06.12 at 8:43 am

Editor #30 I have often thought the same thing. I began reading the Ben Jone`s Housing blog in about 2004, I believe and the writing has been on the wall since the Fall of 2005 when California began to see cracks.. What we are seeing now here in Canada is just like watching a movie the second time .. Canadians may turn out to be the most greedy and the stupidest people on the planet.. I would really like to see the interest rates start moving up and begin the “pig slaughter” sooner than later so as a country we can move on.. Pigs always get slaughtered ,might as well get on with it..

#116 Pr on 07.06.12 at 8:44 am

grand’ma wisdom; When banks pay you to borrow money, something is wrong, so get out!

#117 eaglebay - Parksville on 07.06.12 at 9:01 am

#87 Roial1 on 07.06.12 at 1:30 am

Right on. See you on the chuck.
Was at Telegraph Cove, tons of halis.

#118 Reality Bytes on 07.06.12 at 9:05 am

No time to read all the comments, so sorry if this is repetitive.

…but I needed to add my outrage over the land transfer scarecrow.

Saw it on the news last night and did a spit-take. The sheer audacity!!! And the media just runs it with no counter point or challenge?

I’m used to spin and BS, but that took balls of steel… or someone with absolutely no soul !!

#119 cramar on 07.06.12 at 9:08 am

100 I’m stupid on 07.06.12 at 6:43 am
Has anyone noticed the resentment of sellers after their home is sold? Everyone at some point in their life has sold something, wether it be a car, furniture or a multitude of other items they no longer want or need. The seller is usually grateful but not with housing. The opposite occurs, they no longer maintain the property after an accepted offer is made. They stop cutting the grasss, they walk on the Brazilian hardwood floors with there shoes etc. I can’t understand why. Is it jealousy, resentment, greed or hate? It turns otherwise nice people into monsters. It’s like they do things that subconsciously make them feel like they got the better deal. When Garth says Realestate is the most emotional asset he’s right.

——————-

Sorry not here! It is going to be a scramble, but we plan to have the house and property in as perfect condition as possible for the new owners. Even to trimming trees and defrosting the freezer for them.

#120 Stupid Canucks on 07.06.12 at 9:18 am

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.866289

The most delusional people I have ever seen. Just listen to the real estate idiot and the guy in front of UBC Sauder School of Business…Vancouver is the worst place on earth. These guys are smoking some serious home-grown dope out there. I simply cannot believe my ears. I left this shit hole of a place only after having seen what lunacy it would take to live out there for little over 10 months.

#121 Ret on 07.06.12 at 9:19 am

Cry me a river of Miller beer over T.O.’s land transfer tax.

Toronto property taxes are the lowest in the Ontario per assessed dollar. Mayor Miller had to either raise property taxes to a reasonable level or have a land transfer tax to keep the city coffers overflowing for his socialist agenda and union payoffs at contract time.

A $254,000 MVA in Hamilton’s lower city dings me for just over $3500 which is probably what a $500,000 home pays in T.O.

SIL lives in Sebring Fl. in a larger (1650sf) home in a nicer area and pays $1225 as a Homesteader. Where the heck is all this property tax money going? Sebring has police, fire services, road maintenance and garbage collection like any other municipality. Even if she paid the non-homesteader rate, she wouldn’t pay $2000 a year.

Check out typical 1400 sf home and yearly taxes.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1440-Hiawatha-Ave-Sebring-FL-33870/66727182_zpid/

#122 Bolo2k12 on 07.06.12 at 9:21 am

Mattamy and Ballantry homes are opening a new phase tomorrow at their Cornell project in Markham (great timing eh). Either the rejects from Upper Unionville will be buying here or there will be crickets.

The price of these pre-construction homes already cost more than similar resale homes in the area. Is this a sign of things to come, Garth?

Will greedy builders start dropping their prices as resale values start to crumble?

#123 Chris L. on 07.06.12 at 9:28 am

Guelph is safe!

Average Guelph real estate up 8.7% from June 2011 to June 2012 from $319,448 to $347,136.

You have a lot to learn. — Garth

#124 cramar on 07.06.12 at 9:38 am

The big news was that in the 416 sales dropped 13% in June. On the local news in Kitchener-Waterloo they announced that sales dropped “double digits” here locally. Didn’t even give the exact figure. (Didn’t mention on heals of May being down 3.4%.) Then they had some woman RE mouthpiece saying that it was nothing to be concerned about since it is just a temporary blip that gets averaged out over the whole year.

#125 Deb on 07.06.12 at 9:43 am

Yesterday I had coffee with a young co-worker who is a potential first-time home buyer, in Saskatoon of all places. He explained how he and his girlfriend are tired of paying high rent for their apartment, seeing friends who seem very happy because they have recently bought homes in the city, and are sick of waiting for any kind of correction which they think may never happen at all in a steroidal market such as this one.

My reply consisted of a few brief points. First of all, I said that I am not going to tell him what to decide to do. In a nutshell, I explained that he is the one who has sovereignty over his own mind and body, and he is the one who is ultimately responsible for the choices he makes. Secondly, I reminded him that the most valuable thing that four years of university should have taught him is how to think critically, and the applications for this are many, like right now for instance. Thirdly, I suggested that he may want to consider talking to folks who can give him an unbiased, objective account of what the real estate market was like a few years ago and look for similarities and differences in comparison with today’s market. In other words, talk with a few people who walked the Earth in a time before ATM’s, ETF’s, cell phones, and the Internet. There are many people who have seen this movie before and are happy to share their experience. Finally, I asked him if he was familiar with Mr. Spock from Star Trek and he said he was. Now this fictitious character would be the ideal for serious financial decision-making and investing because not only does he follow logic and reason over passion, for him no emotion exists to influence or trump reason at all. What would a decision based on pure reason look like? How might this kind of thinking apply to your desire to buy a home in Saskatoon at this point in time, I asked? He seemed to get it.

#126 Mr Buyer on 07.06.12 at 9:45 am

#107House Horny Housewife on 07.06.12 at 7:53 am
…………………………………………………..
I get the impression you are soft pedalling the nature of the crisis we face in Real Estate. This is a bubble and we are headed for a crash.

#127 Mr Buyer on 07.06.12 at 9:51 am

#91MP on 07.06.12 at 1:45 am
Here is what we are up against in the North. Instead of listing homes for sale, people are listing want ads. Seems a tad backwards? Canada has a long way to go until sentiment changes.
…………………………………………………………..
I beg to differ. Sentiment has indeed changed.

#128 Mr Buyer on 07.06.12 at 9:56 am

#86T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.06.12 at 1:26 am
Rent Bubble in the U.S.?
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/rent-increases-suggest-buying-is-becoming-a-better-deal/?src=recg

This seems like the type of sign you’d look for to know when the market has bottomed — rent prices rising far faster than house prices.
……………………………………………………………
It is critical that a bottom on US Real Estate be called now before the inflection to rapid descent it reached in the crashing of the Canadian RE bubble but there has not been a bottom yet in many parts of Japan, just hard to see descent for the past decade after the horrific ride down.

#129 truth hammer on 07.06.12 at 9:56 am

But don’t forget…the Land Transfer Tax…..and the accompanying hike in all real estate related taxes and services took the Toronto budget into ‘surplus’. By killing the goose that lays the golden eggs the shortsighted civic servants managed to all give themselves raises….again. The socialist mantra for any fiscal issue is never to cut into the sloppy fat or curtail spending………nope……’just raise taxes’……again. Just like the Liberals did under Turner and Cretin….instead of needed structural change we got an off loading of wasteful spending squarely on the backs of the taxpaying workers.

The Lumpen-Idiotic have seemed to become numb to the Euro issue catastrophe that is solely based on overspending on civic largesse in that collection of welfare states……………which has…as in every pyramid scheme ever launched by the lazy greedy socialists……..indebted the taxpayer far beyong any amount that can ever be paid back regardless of the interest rate. There comes an inflection point where the amount of debt cannot be recovered even at rates of .00001%………………but wait…the Euro Zone is not the lexus nexus of the debt universe……it’s actually the worlds third largest economy….Japan…….currently running a debt to gdp of over 230% !!!!!!!!!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Japan+economy+cash+October/6890982/story.html

As we’ve seen in Europe, a currency which is not the reserve currency cannot sustain itself on debt issue alone. For those Canadian socialist-union numbskulls whoo think that we can continue to lavish massive pensions and perks on the civil service and special intersts here in Canada….well….they should be looking for an off shore banking haven….like the rest of us…..as the Greeks and the Irish have had to do……for there will come a time when your national currency becomes worthless when weighed against the national debt.

Vic Toews has become a closet Liberal wacko…announcing a free flight and $2000 of taxpayers money to every ‘refugee’ in Canada who shows up to claim the prize. This is one of the most idiotic moves I have ever witnessed…..normally the Libs have always acted out of self interest and greed…this takes the cake.

I can imagine every wanderer..hitchhiker and unemployed douchebag in the world will be making their way to Canada right now on this win win announcement. They come….stay free….get super welfare benefits and all medical while they camp out…..and then…when the holidays over Uncle Vic gives them a free ride home and $2000 to spend however they choose…….

I can hear it now…….”Just Raise Taxes”.

#130 jess on 07.06.12 at 9:58 am

create -a- crest with matching flag along with a declaration of independance! Although, batteries not included

…”Hungarian-born designer, Gabor Orsos, has come up with an idea that’s sure to excite the ridiculously rich. For a mere 5.2 million euros, or $6.5-million, the Austrian firm will design you a man-made, floating “island.”

http://orsosisland.com/

#131 neo on 07.06.12 at 10:01 am

The recession officially started on December 2007.

What was the payroll number for that month?
84,000

What was the payroll number this month?
80,000.

You can have positive numbers on payroll but still be in recession.

Well, we have never left the first one (-;

Tempus Fugit…

#132 jess on 07.06.12 at 10:14 am

keeping the faith:
you quoted gladwell …have you read this:

pro tobacco piece
Wednesday, February 28, 1990 – Page updated at 12:00 AM
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19900228&slug=1058551

…the study quoted by Gladwell was also found in the files of Victor Han, Director of Communications for Philip Morris Worldwide Regulatory Affairs.

http://exiledonline.com/malcolm-gladwell-tobacco-industry-shill/

…public relations industry lingo, “third-party” refers to a PR technique in which corporate propaganda is funneled through seemingly independent journalists, academics, non-profits, think tanks and other respected “third parties” in order to bolster the credibility of “the message” with the public. Here’s how a Burson-Marsteller PR expert described the third-party technique in 1995:

#133 Smoking Man on 07.06.12 at 10:18 am

2. 5. 10. Year bonds getting eaten up like no tomorrow. Translation lower fix rate mtg. Can un emplyement rate drops.
Where is the catalist kids MSM ? Remember Hosni will do anything in his power to keep prices from falling ore going up.

Just saying. The facts

#134 crashing yuppy on 07.06.12 at 10:18 am

Saw that Shameless Pimp Al Sinclair on “Hot Property” last night. He actually said sales being down and prices up are good for the market and that prices will continue to go up.

Lovely Ann just stared into the headlights blinked and nodded a few times.

How do these people sleep at night???

To Quote McBain on The Simpsons “On top of a huge pile of cash will several beautiful ladies”” Sheesh.

#135 Toronto_CA on 07.06.12 at 10:22 am

“#109 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.12 at 8:14 a”

The CA in Toronto CA stands for Chartered Accountant. I am not misinformed about numbers, but it sounds like you’re a public sector worker. “Tiny” pay raises given as appeasement for millions of workers adds up very quickly and with every raise in the future it is compounded. The numbers I’ve seen suggest this “tiny” raise + immediate payouts will offset entirely the savings of not paying out these ludicrous “severance” payments in the future. That a government worker with massive job security and massive DB pension plans gets a severance when they quit or retire is BEYOND stupid to begin with. Private sector workers, the ones that pay for these things, do not get any severance unless they are SEVERED from their jobs. The day of reckoning is coming for public sector unions. People are fed UP. Will be interesting to see what happens with Ontario teachers, esp now that the Catholic teachers have agreed to a wage freeze since you know, the Ontario government is bankrupt.

#136 Kenny Banya on 07.06.12 at 10:25 am

One thing that’s never mentioned in these articles is that the real estate in Toronto is in TERRIBLE shape. The houses are practically falling over in a lot of “desirable” inner-city neighborhoods, sloping roof, collapsing porch, wrecked basements. My wife and I were utterly shocked when we moved here at the quality of houses. At least in newer cities you have places that built with newer materials, better insulation, modern electrical systems, designed for central heating.

I can appreciate that the city has kept a lot of the turn-of-the-century homes and not bulldozed them all, but most of these so-called premium homes need an insane amount of work.

The old house that we first rented, which I’m sure some idiot will buy for $1m shortly, needed at a minimum new doors, windows, floors, bathtub, porch, kitchen tiles, fridge, AC, driveway, basement steps, washer/dryer, roof, insulation (i.e. it had none at all, just bricks with plaster on top), fireplace, outdoor lighting, backyard gate (no longer closed and opened onto a park), electrical system… I could go on. I was embarrassed to have people over, but my wife insisted, and people were always saying that it was a really nice place by Toronto standards!

Anyway great post, yes it’s ridiculous to suggest a 5k land transfer tax is suddenly breaking people in the world of million dollar teardowns.

#137 Dupcheck on 07.06.12 at 10:29 am

The RE Bubble is starting to deflate, the hole is slowly becoming larger, then before you know it it becomes a whoopyyyy cushion flying around. Some say we do not know where this is going to end, well the whoopy cushion will end up somewhere in the room after flying around madly. The room is “F” playground. The people are the gladiators, the “F” is the “Richies”.

#138 Canadian Watchdog on 07.06.12 at 10:33 am

Toronto unemployment rate for men and woman aged 15-24 years increased to 19.8% from 18.7%.

Continuing results like this will surely cause the property latter to disrupt even further.

#139 Toronto Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 07.06.12 at 10:34 am

BNN interview with Vancouver realtor claiming he sold his house 4 weeks ago and predicting a Vancouver crash ? :)
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip715413

That follows on the link here last night. — Garth
———————————————————-

This is what realtors are doing in Toronto behide closed doors. Realtors in Toronto know the housing crash is here and now. They know sales are dropping and prices are as well. It’s going to be a nasty crash

#140 Front View on 07.06.12 at 10:51 am

#129 truth hammer is right.

For incompetent politicians that run the government and the city halls we live in increasing taxes is the easy way out of solving any problem. Instead of them finding more efficient ways to solve problems are run lean they run fat and increase taxes. Shame on all of you politicians that abuse tax payers hard earned money. And shame on those tax payers that say: Ohhh what can you do! It is time to raise your voice and speak up before we work for free just to survive. Say “NO” to this tax money abuse. Governments play games with the people because the people do not care anymore, maybe because they are mostly boomers and they had their fun. Time for things to change!!!!!!!!!

#141 coastal on 07.06.12 at 10:51 am

Garth gets quoted in The Province, my how times have changed. Usually it’s Bob Rennie’s orgasmic rants about his latest baseball card trades. It’s all just a big game til someone goes bankrupt, right Bobbie ?

http://www.theprovince.com/homes/Realtor+Vancouver+housing+market+time+cash/6892325/story.html

Pretty lame how that agent’s tune has changed overnight, he’s on record as a hard core bull with zero chance of a major correction and we’re all going to be living in 500 sq. ft. condos forever cause that’s how he grew up. It’s done like dinner, get over it.

#142 Tom from Mississauga on 07.06.12 at 10:56 am

Well I hope the banking system goes into crisis. I just bought some National Bank preferreds today.

#143 A+ on 07.06.12 at 11:10 am

It is time for the Public Sector Unions to go. Taxpayers have had enough. Why do people that make the laws and protect the laws like gov and police need protection from a union? I do not understand the logic here. Unions were good back in the older days when there were no labour laws to protect a simple factory worker. The next big bubble to explode is the “Union Bubble” it has been inflated for a long time. Bye Bye Unions your day has come for you to go.

#144 futureexpatriate on 07.06.12 at 11:11 am

“Almost impossible to predict the bottom”…. yeah, unless it’s going to crawl along miserably for three years or more like in the US.

Or longer. You can smell the panic.

#145 Stupid Canucks on 07.06.12 at 11:17 am

#142- Preferred shares rank lower than debt in terms of creditor claim rights. I woudn’t sit too comfortably with this on hands.

#146 bridgepigeon on 07.06.12 at 11:26 am

Here’s another brilliant idea from our government. The plan is to take all the nuclear waste from all across Canada and bury it under Lake Huron at Port Elgin. The drinking water for millions, one of the most precious resources on the planet, could be jeopardized. Amazing but true…..this is really worth protesting…..

#147 Regan on 07.06.12 at 11:27 am

Hilarious that the land transfer tax are presented as a waste – but realtor commissions are oh so necessary. The feds downloaded a bunch of debt onto provinces to balance their budget, which did the same to cities, and the only major way cities can raise is through property taxes. In most cases, at least on a local level, you get what you pay for too – Toronto has been underbudgeting with deferred maintenance for years because people would rather spend 3 hours a day in traffic that build a decent transit system. Personally, I’d like to see a household transit tax of $500 a year that would also hand out free metropasses to every resident, that way you don’t pay for half the system even if you drive, and then pay again for occasional use, and that’s the kind of usage that would reduce traffic congestion. Anyway, it’s penny wise and pound foolish… Pitching in money to build a beautiful, safe city will increase your quality of life just as much as renovating your own home. (Yes, I’m not saying there’s never waste, I’m saying that starving your city of cash doesn’t solve the waste problem). And if Toronto has trouble now, with the booming market, what’s going to happen in a few years when the party stops? Fat times like this are when you should be stocking the larder for winter.
Speaking of which, I have a RE client who pays me well to update his websites. Gotta invoice that sucker NOW before the cash dries up!

#148 The American on 07.06.12 at 11:36 am

At #30: Editor, yes, every American is scratching his/her head in complete awe of what Canada had managed to make happen in such a “conservative” lending environment. Because the bubble is much greater there in Canada than what it ever was in the U.S., it means several things:

1. It never was really all that conservative, and all the finger pointing from Canada toward the U.S. for years will certainly not bode well. The word is hypocrisy. The saying goes, “He who has the last laugh…”
2. Canadians, especially the younger ones, are going to experience economic hardships they cannot imagine.
3. Some major markets in Canada are going to feel shock een more than most every major U.S. market (barring Detroit).

U.S. banks are watching and waiting for the inevitable in Canada (seriously, they are). For lack of a better term, the Canadian banking system is going to go down in history of precisely what NOT to do, even moreso than U.S. banks.

#149 vik on 07.06.12 at 11:37 am

#121 Ret on 07.06.12 at 9:19 am
Where the heck is all this property tax money going?
Its going into the paychecks of the unionised
municipal employees and thier gold plated pensions.

#150 Frank le Skank on 07.06.12 at 11:40 am

#134 crashing yuppy on 07.06.12 at 10:18 am

I can’t wait to hear what that asshole Al Sinclair says after prices hit bottom. He will claim that fear mongering and Toronto Land Transfer tax caused the crash. I’m not sure if he’s that stupid or if he’s a good actor. To be fair to Anne Rhomer, she is paid by those bigots. She does challenge them once an a while, but if she wants to continue to work she needs to tow the line after the Monster Mortgage and Tridel commercials are over. I always laugh when I watch that show because its a prime example of capitalism gone wrong.

#151 Frank le Skank on 07.06.12 at 11:48 am

#136 Kenny Banya on 07.06.12 at 10:25 am

Why buy a house that needs $100,000 of work when there are a ton of homes for the same price that have been upgraded with a flippers HELOC? I my opinion, if someone buys a home that needs any of these: new washrooms, kitchen, roof, windows, furnace or driveway, then those repairs (including labour) has to be deducted from the costs of the house. One problem I observed is that people are/were getting away with selling their house without a sufficient amount of deductions to compensate for the lack of upkeep. No big deal though, just use your HELOC to renovate, you will get that money back because your house will always appreciate in value….!!!!

#152 The American on 07.06.12 at 11:50 am

BCObserver, from the previous post, now THAT is some laughable shit. First, Canada welcomed 281,000 immigrants, not over a half million like you claimed. Next, please explain what you mean when you say Canada accepts a better quality if immigrant over that of the U.S. This would be very interesting. Remember, the U.S. accepts more immigrants every year than all other nations combined. This figure is LEGAL immigrants only.

#153 MP on 07.06.12 at 11:55 am

@ 127 Mr. Buyer

I beg to differ. Sentiment has indeed changed.
___________

In my corner of Canada, sentiment has not changed in the slightest among the often mentioned “herd” – and I would bet in most places it hasn’t. People are just no longer able to afford the expression of that sentiment, or the bank won’t lend the money to allow them to express it. Big difference.

#154 Bill Gable on 07.06.12 at 12:01 pm

Vancouver – is this what we face?

The article is not for the faint of heart.

I have travelled, had a wonderful career – I have a stable life and a loving Family. I am so thankful.

When you read this article – count your blessings.

In my gut – I have a sinking feeling that this is the future for many folks, and it makes me shudder.

It is a painful read.

http://tinyurl.com/7gtlseb

#155 Only The Bankers Laugh on 07.06.12 at 12:02 pm

Crawling into Toronto on Gardiner with Lakeshore closed for Indy Drinking party, you cannot help but notice the 50 condo buildings going up right beside a major highway. One around Spadina is almost touching the Gardiner. Who in their right mind would pay $400K after tax dollars for this crap with an $500 maintenance subject to change. Insanity once again here in Toronto.

#156 Stupid Canucks on 07.06.12 at 12:09 pm

#152- The best and brightest immigrants in the world are those which flock to the U.S. only to be seconded by the same returnees from the U.S. back into places like China and India. That other guy was talking off his a#%.

Canada does accept qualified skilled immigrants, however the social experiment it has created to get them settled into the country does not work.
The country simply lacks the strong gravitational pull of assimilation that its southern neighbor has mastered so well over the last 236 years.

Multiculturalism is like building the biblical tower of Babylon thinking it’s not going to eventually collapse. It always has in the past and it always will in the future when there is no single unifying factor that would bring the masses together.

#157 zeeman1 on 07.06.12 at 12:10 pm

Truth Hammer, you’re gonna love this:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/07/06/kelly-mcparland-billion-dollar-payout-enriches-unappreciated-civil-servants/

As if we needed more proof we’re hugely overtaxed.

#158 jess on 07.06.12 at 12:13 pm

#140 Front View
the excuse to say didn’t see this coming is hogwash!

liar loans, rigged indexes e.g. libor/energy, fraudulently marketed drugs all require the damage control sector to move the bright line.
Although, the lies line some pockets but the truth is cost effective and more efficient since it lines all of our pockets.
================
We conclude this financial crisis was avoidable.
We conclude widespread failures in financial regulation and supervision proved devastating to the stability of the nation’s financial markets.
We conclude dramatic failures of corporate governance and risk management at many systemically important financial institutions were a key cause of this crisis.
We conclude there was a systemic breakdown in accountability and ethics.
We conclude over-the-counter derivatives contributed significantly to this crisis.

#159 Inglorious Investor on 07.06.12 at 12:22 pm

Thanks for the link Toronto_CA

Let’s parse the article:

“While federal budget cuts are sending some public servants to the unemployment line, most of those keeping their jobs will be laughing all the way to the bank […] Government officials say the average payout to date has been roughly $20,000, but the highest-paid government executives and military brass could be getting cheques up to $150,000.”

Nice. Hey, do you think Harper would send me a big, fat cheque if I quit my job?
————-

“In total, the government expects to have cut cheques worth about $2 billion by the end of this year.”

That’s $2 billion of tax payer money (yours and mine) for literally nothing.
————–

“The payouts are part of the Harper government’s move to scrap a long-standing public service perk that gives federal workers severance pay even when they quit or retire.”

Why the hell should fed gov workers get severance even if they quit or retire? This is the heart of the problem/insanity.
—————–

“The government has agreed to compensate public servants for all of the severance they have accumulated to date at the rate of one week’s wages for each year of employment.”

Well, a deal is a deal—even if the original agreement is a disgrace.
——————–

“While the total payout to federal workers is expected to top $6 billion, the Treasury Board estimates that scrapping severance for those who quit or retire will save taxpayers about $500 million a year.”

So it’s a 12 year payback?
———————-

[Treasury Board President Tony Clement said,] “This benefit does not exist in the private sector and there is a reason. It is costly and to perpetuate it would be unfair.”

Oh, so it’s only unfair AFTER the gov decides it costs too much. But when we the people had more money to spend it was OK to bugger us with our national flagpole?
————————

“CBC News has learned that in exchange for getting rid of the severance provision, the Harper government is giving public servants a special 0.75 per cent increase in wages over three years, […]”

So they fire civ servants across the board in order to save money (some of whom actually did something productive). Then they give the ones still left a raise. Quantum mechanics is more logical than this.
————————–

“The union that represents the largest number of federal public servants said the severance for retirement and resignation predates collective bargaining and defended the compensation it negotiated to end the practice.”

Translation: F you, we want our money.
—————————

[Robyn Benson, national president of the Public Service Alliance of Canada said,] “[…] PSAC negotiated stronger provisions for severance upon layoff so the thousands of federal workers this government is recklessly cutting have a better chance of continuing to pay their mortgages and contributing to the economy.”

Translation: They deserve special treatment. Everyone else? Let ’em eat cake. Or Spam. Or whatever the F the common people consume.
————————

“The public service windfall should not be confused with an additional $900 million in special severance being given to 19,000 federal workers who are actually losing their jobs to government cost-cutting. Those workers are getting both the special severance connected to government downsizing, and the regular severance now being bought out by the government.”

At least they deserve part of the money, so this part of it is not a total scam on tax payers. Just a big one.

God, does anyone else here feel like Porky Pig in Wackyland?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXCoX9eRf_8

#160 Frank le Skank on 07.06.12 at 12:35 pm

#148 The American on 07.06.12 at 11:36 am

I have seen a lot of people trashing Canada because we have walked into the same pile of shit that the US walked into….. oh yeah and Ireland, and Spain, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, Japan, Netherlands and now China and Australia. How could we have seen this RE crash coming? We needed more warning!!

Who’s to blame for not warning us about this? Government… MSM, Banks, the internet, Mortgage brokers? No, you as a person are to blame for your blind faith and trust, that’s what you get for being a lamb. Before you buy a house do your homework and a detailed budget while taking normal interest rates into consideration. If you can’t live comfortably and save for retirement under normal interest rates then buying isn’t for you. If you bought without doing this then have fun at the slaughter.

The reason Canada is so stupid is because we gloated about how smart we are to the world and scolded those that were dumb enough to fall for this co-ordinated fraud which is called a real estate bubble. It would appear that we are by far the dumbest of all and I think the consequences are going to be much more drastic.

#161 Chris L. on 07.06.12 at 12:44 pm

Guelph is safe!

Average Guelph real estate up 8.7% from June 2011 to June 2012 from $319,448 to $347,136.

You have a lot to learn. — Garth

But we do have a low unemployment rate!

http://www.guelphmercury.com/news/local/article/756068–guelph-s-unemployment-rate-dips-once-more

I sold my rental in May. Hopefully you’re right.

#162 daystar on 07.06.12 at 12:54 pm

#156 Stupid Canucks on 07.06.12 at 12:09 pm

Running down Canadians presumably in a desperate bid to exhalt yourself, hows that working for you? Lol, the U.S. has mastered multiculturalism so well, yup, it just took getting past slavery, civil wars, bigots, racists and other superiority/inferiority complexes that required extensive civil rights movements, the job’s not done and such complexes are reflected by the way, with a moniker such as your own.

I presume we can expect “extensive” levels of wisdom from someone who ostracizes the collective inhabitants of entire nations as “stupid”. We’re all ears.

#163 Buy now before it's too late!!! on 07.06.12 at 12:59 pm

“There may never be a better time to buy than now.”

HAHAHA

This stuff is funny to watch. Economic simpletons everywhere regurgitating what RE industry spits out.

Some people are going to feel the pain.

#164 Inglorious Investor on 07.06.12 at 1:01 pm

#109 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.12 at 8:14 am

“And by the way, when severance was negotiated in, years ago, [sic] the union gave up a big concession.”

What concession was that? That government employees would actually have to show up for work?

#165 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.12 at 1:01 pm

#135 Toronto_CA on 07.06.12 at 10:22 am
———————————————
As a ‘CA’ then (I won’t mention the fact that I have a Ph.D., sacrificed my 20’s to further my education, lived below the poverty line, took on debt, postponed having a family, missed out on the real estate market) you must obviously know that public servants are tax payers too?

AND, that many of those in the private sector, especially those that own corporations or shell companies, use ‘grey’ areas of the law to avoid taxation? How about all the landlords across Canada that are screwing the taxpayer by not reporting income? And why don’t I ever get offered receipts when I pay with cash at all the stores downtown?

Yes, I do have great job security and benefits (actually my PS benefits are not all that different than when I was a graduate student). But, my take home pay is average, and my job requires me to live in an expensive [but great] city.

I have sacrificed to get where I am, and by no means am I getting ‘rich’ off the taxpayer. [In fact, I have 3 young children and my daycare bill next year will be $30,000…essentially to be paid for with debt]

I enjoy my job, and I enjoy working on behalf of Canadians (even the unappreciative ones). The culture of the younger generation in the PS is one of service, initiative, excitement, and being the best you can be.

I’m sorry you see things in such a negative light. And thank you for acknowledging the truth behind the severance payout.

#166 Snowboid on 07.06.12 at 1:04 pm

#112 eaglebay – Parksville on 07.06.12 at 8:32 am…

Like this babe from Tiger Lily Farm?

http://tinyurl.com/OceansideChick

#167 Anthony Mayfield on 07.06.12 at 1:06 pm

Hey Garth, thanks so much for your blog! I started doing video commentaries on the exact same topics before someone pointed me in your direction. I’m glad they did!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9rZ5Mu_YzI&feature=plcp

Check out my latest video–we are on the exact same page. Maybe even plug it if you are so inclined ;)

Thanks a lot, take care (and we’ll both keep on in our mutual crusades)

#168 luke8929 on 07.06.12 at 1:07 pm

Of the 6 billion going to Federal employees what percentage will be paid in tax back to the gov.? 40% perhaps so that leaves 3.6 billion in their pockets. Some or most of which will be spent which gives a temporary increase to retail, housing etc. Stealth bailout of the economy so you have to wonder if the glowing reports from the finance minister are as good as he represents them to be.

Of course the thesis is that any risk will always be handed off to the taxpayer via the gov. that’s the same rational for “no banks will ever fail in Canada”. Its not as if we ever had a bond auction in Canada that nearly flopped. Bond vigilantes are dead and we can keep rates low for ever and put as much debt as we need into the system to keep it afloat because next year we will cut the deficit and the economy will be better, ok not next year, three years, four years from now? Its the Wimpy syndrome.

#169 Kenny Banya on 07.06.12 at 1:13 pm

@Frank le Skank

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t… if you get a house that has been renovated at all, you will be paying double or triple (or more) the value of the renovation to compensate the speculator. You know the drill, put in the granite countertop (actually nowadays it’s quartz for some reason?) that costs $4k but adds $40k to the resale price.

Condition really doesn’t matter in this market, here’s my favorite example:

“Million Dollar Hovel”

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/02/heres-what-that-1-million-will-buy-you-east-of-the-dvp/

I honestly think Toronto has a looooong way to go before we crash, the delusion is still very much intact here. I think we could easily see $2m semis and $10m detacheds and I don’t mean in Rosedale, just ordinary residential neighborhoods. I live in a neighborhood now where most people are a) retired b) poor c) employed part time in arts/film/service/non-profits and the prices are getting near $1m because OMFG it’s near a pizzeria. I can’t even imagine what it’s like in a nicer neighborhood.

The 25 year mortgage change is nice, real step in the right direction, but it doesn’t make any difference for the huge portion of the market that’s either paying cash or moving up on the huge gains of the last 5 years. We know a couple who bought for $250k in 2005, and will be selling this year for ~$850k – no renovations, no new appliances, nothing but bubble money.

They’ll buy a “cheap” house in the area they’re moving to with the windfall. As far as I know they have zero knowledge of interest rates, mortgage amortizations, etc, they just know $800k semis are the “new normal” so they’ll pay it.

Hope I’m wrong!

#170 TRT on 07.06.12 at 1:20 pm

#152 American:

You are party correct. 281,000 permanent resident immigrants you got correct. However, you exclude the equal amounts of temporary foreign workers and students that arrive each year. Once their visa expires, they fo not leave. Canada assumes they leave on goodwill but Canada has no ‘Exit’ monitoring. Many just write a letter saying they exited by foot at a US border crossing. Hopefully the perimeter border crossing agreement will fix this loophole.

#171 DonDWest on 07.06.12 at 1:25 pm

So first the conservatives introduce 40 year/zero down mortgages, and now they’re handing out 6 billion in tax dollars to government workers. Have no worry, I’m sure there’s “fiscal wizardry” behind these decisions, after all they’re conservatives. . .

It costs money to fire people. Why is this a surprise to anyone? — Garth

#172 Garth - what is your prediction? on 07.06.12 at 1:35 pm

OK Garth, a few months ago, you were popping your reader’s that there won’t be a crash (i.e 30%) across the country, though only *maybe* in select pockets like Vancouver/Toronto. You were instilling a more moderate tune that even if prices go down 15%, that would be a huge drag on the economy, on people, etc.

Now, in those post, you have either changed your mind or you are fear mongering by implying it is possible for Canada to drop like the US by 70%, 65%, etc.

So I’m calling out to you — what is your actual prediction over the next 5 years? Stagnation, correction, crash and how much? Thanks Garth, love your blog.

No change. A 15% national average correction followed by an indeterminate period of stagnation and melt. Some markets will be quite unscathed (think Moncton) while others will be walloped (you know where). — Garth

#173 neo on 07.06.12 at 1:37 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/equity-sales-slow-to-weakest-since-2008/article4394437/

Whether you think it is because of ignorance and things are actually peachy…Garth’s position. Or you think that people are tired of the manipulation they perceive in the marketplace and outright fraud as well as HFT run amok. This will lead to higher unemployment amongst banks and even more volatilily in the market going forward.

#174 penpal on 07.06.12 at 1:37 pm

@ # 169 Kenny “Bananas”

What colour is the sky on your planet, Kenny?

For f*@k’s sake, did you even read what you posted?

What percentage of the population qualifies for the amortizing monthly payment EVEN AT 3% interest on those sums?

Mathematically and statistically impossible.
Period.

Have another drink, buddy!

#175 jess on 07.06.12 at 1:42 pm

#152 The American

I hope their able to check fake diplomas

genius visas known as O-1s and EB-1s
There is also no cap on the number of O-1s that the government can award each year; about 12,280 were approved in 2011

USCIS rules require extraordinary ability — demonstrated by “sustained national or international acclaim” — that he says his clients can prove with awards and testaments from leading players in their field.

The visas are “a lot of work,” he said. “You can’t just crank them out at high volume.”

“USCIS decides each benefit request on a case-by-case basis relying on the law and evidence provided for that case. There are a variety of factors that influence the number of visa applications received and approved from year to year.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/29/us-usa-visa-extraordinary-idUSBRE85S09A20120629

case is one of the largest criminal financial fraud cases ever prosecuted in federal court in Chicago

Sentinel declared bankruptcy by blaming Sentinel’s financial problems on the “liquidity crisis” and “investor fear and panic” when he knew that the actual reasons for Sentinel’s financial problems were its purchase of high-risk, illiquid securities; excessive use of leverage; and the resulting indebtedness on the BoNY credit line, which had a balance exceeding $415 million on August 13, 2007. Sentinel declared bankruptcy on August 17, 2007.

#176 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 07.06.12 at 1:44 pm

Well…we need a quota system for certain University degrees..especially PhD’s.

Has the world gotten better?

In reality, dropping out after 2 nd year saves your soul and keeps your brain sharp.

To much ” Must Get Masters Degree…. Must Get Master Degree” …If limit PhD’s..reduce the Venturi effect for undergrads.

Then people don’t go into debt and can get useful jobs.

#177 Devore on 07.06.12 at 1:46 pm

#99 Yulyyz

It is undeniable credit taps have been turned on full throttle. Many people have personal and anecdotal experience. In 2000/2001 I thought I would see how much I would qualify for… one of the red banks would barely lend me enough money for a grocery trip. For more, they wanted a co-signer, or a more comprehensive credit history. Just a handful of years later, they were tripping over each other to lend me nearly half a million.

Now the taps are being turned back, but everyone has gotten used to the status quo. Evil banks! Greedy! How dare they take my credit away? It’s my credit, and I want it now!

But things are merely reverting to more normal settings. If you took this brief respite to load up on credit and live far beyond your means, you’re getting roasted. If you used it to pay off expensive debt, or to invest in undervalued productive assets, you’ll be fine.

There will be much angst and gnashing of teeth and letter writing campaigns to politicians to “do something about it”, but Mr Market will dutifully follow the path laid down by regulations and bounded by laws of economics to its natural conclusion.

#178 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.06.12 at 1:48 pm

Someone in Garth’s old ‘hood got an early jump on the new July 9th $1M cap for CMHC:

C2409818 — 199 RANDOLPH RD, Toronto, ON
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12178676&PidKey=1038422157

$998,000
(phew – can still get my 25-yr / 5% down mortgage!)

Here’s another listing from today — similar price ($989k):
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12178712&PidKey=1221055940

Better not get in a bidding war though… anything over ask and you need $200k+ to buy it!

#179 Boomer on 07.06.12 at 1:50 pm

I am not sure why you made the comment at #171, “It costs money to fire people”
The voluntary severance payouts are not being paid to “fired” employees. The payouts that were made last year are to current PS employees who chose to take the money now. From this point forward PS employees will no longer receive severance if they quit or retire. Having said that, yes the current block of employees losing their jobs would get severance that has not been paid out. So why that comment?

#180 live within your means on 07.06.12 at 1:51 pm

#18 DodgedBullet on 07.05.12 at 10:05 pm
Garth,

any concerns about Canadian REITs following residential real estate?

Tucked the fowl in tonight and 3 motherless baby racoons were trying to enter the coop by gnawing through a small opening – cute blighters but we’re probably going to have to kill them.

Ben.

Baby raccoon murderer. No answer for you. — Garth

…………………………..
You must live in the country Ben. Years ago we had racoons. Back then one could borrow a cage from our Nat Resources dept, which we did a couple of times, and release them in the wild. They no longer offer this service. :-( Moms can be quite vicious. The kits are adorable. With ever increasing development we see fewer wild animals tho a few months ago I saw a beautiful red fox saunter across our back yard and then across several neighbours’ front yards. We used have a groundhog that took residence in our area as well as pheasants, etc.

#181 Toronto_CA on 07.06.12 at 1:56 pm

“It costs money to fire people. Why is this a surprise to anyone? — Garth”

If the money were only for people being fired, I’d agree. But as far as I know this money is to be paid out when they quit or retire as well. Correct me if I’m wrong, but it makes sense because why would they offer it to everyone if it was only for those being fired/laid off? I know it’s old news and stuff, but it is from an era where public sector salaries didn’t compare to private sector ones so the benefits made up the difference (not to mention security).

Now the private sector falls behind in wages AND benefits yet pays for the public sector. It’s awful. And has to change.

But it’s off topic! I can understand why you wouldn’t want to bring it on your housing blog comments. Maybe once this crash is over we can start a new Garth blog about Government policies and pension solvency issues.

#182 ISoldMyHouse on 07.06.12 at 2:10 pm

It amazes me that everyone always compares the monthly average prices to the same month last year. That’s nice, but it really doesn’t show the trend. For example, the TREB is touting that the average selling price in June 2012 is up 7.3% compared to June 2011. Here are some more telling numbers:

Average sales prices in the GTA by month in 2012:
January $463,534
February $502,508
March $501,614
April $517,556
May $516,787
June $508,622

The market peaked in April and is starting its descent. It is the same for every category of housing in the GTA. It’s important to do your own analysis of the statistics and not depend on the media for your information.

Guaranteed July numbers will be even lower.

#183 Devore on 07.06.12 at 2:13 pm

#107 House Horny Housewife

Buyers aren’t stupid either (although looking at the Toronto and Vancouver markets, I may have to revise that statement). They shop around and know exactly what is out there. AND they know what they are looking for and what they need (again, Toronto and Vancouver excepted).

This is an unfair characterization. Buyers anywhere aren’t particularly savvy on average. They respond to signals. If the supply of desirable properties is low, and they’re selling quickly, they will grab whatever is left over. That’s because of things like recency bias, and the tendency to believe tomorrow will be much like today, when we know trends are not linear.

Like someone going to the grocery store to buy some canned tuna, but there are only two cans left. They grab the slightly dented one, because the other one is leaking some mystery fluid. A more informed consumer would simply come back tomorrow, because they know the shelves will be restocked by then, realizing they do not NEED to buy tuna today (or at all), they can eat a fruit salad instead.

When the shelf is full, buyers are suddenly pausing to look around and take time making their selection. It’s when the shelf is empty that primal instincts kick in and we grab whatever is available at whatever price is asked.

It also dovetails with my earlier comment about being prepared. If you have a stack of tuna cans already in your pantry, you can take your time buying more, you can wait until the shelf is full again and there is a sale on. You’re never in a panic and need to buy now.

In the case of housing, that would be things like knowing your wants vs needs and being realistic (ie not trying to keep up with the Joneses), having a housing plan for the next 5-10 years, securing your housing, either via a lease and good landlord selection (no amateurs please!), or saving up a large downpayment and having lots of equity and easily manageable payments.

#184 Toronto_CA on 07.06.12 at 2:52 pm

“#165 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.12 at 1:01 pm”

I’m aware that public sector workers pay taxes, just as you should be aware they are paid entirely from the private sector taxes. Without the private sector, there’d be no public sector income. I’m surprised a PhD wouldn’t see the logic in this, but not surprised an overeducated underachiever is a public sector worker. And defending raises while his employer’s debts and deficits break records. Shocking.

Do you honestly believe that Canada has a tax evasion or tax compliance problem? Because it doesn’t. I’m a tax accountant, Masters in Tax from Waterloo and everything. We’re near the top for tax compliance in the world (go look at Greece for tax collection issues). Since 2009 Canada has signed 16 TIEAs with such tax haven nations as Bermuda and the Cayman Islands and is currently negotiating another 14. The tax shelter argument is weak, but nice straw man you built to counter my argument against public sector waste.

We don’t have massive tax sheltering going on here and our rich folk DO pay their share of taxes (or leave the country to places like the USA where it’s better to be rich).

It is high personal tax, not corporate tax rates, that drives landlords to not show rent income and small business owners to not enter a cash transaction in their register.

I 100% agree that corporate tax rates should go up. I don’t think it makes good sense to keep lowering them (my company went from a 30% tax rate down to a 26% rate in the last 3 years thanks to a Canada wide effort to reduce corporate rates). It didn’t help Ireland’s economy very much to reduce their tax to the bottom of the world. The USA corporate rates of ~35% are much higher than ours.

I also think they should have kept the GST at 7%. We were all used to it and reducing it has destroyed Canada’s surplus (coupled with the need for stimulus spending).

But that’s a nice straw man you built about tax avoidance being the problem, and not the huge unfunded liabilities of public sector pensions while the private sector struggles.

How long can this go on?:

“Here in Canada, 19,300 workers were added in the education sector while almost 20,000 were added in health care. Meanwhile, private-sector employers cut 26,000 positions in June after dropping more than 20,000 in the previous month.”

Ponzi scheme.

I am sorry you made poor choices about delaying your family and real estate purchase. Luckily it looks like a buying opportunity is around the corner. I hope you’re right about young PS workers having ethics and enthusiasm. All the public workers in Toronto I know are lazy and entitled and want their banked sick days paid out and all kinds of thing. What they should know is that no one will hire them in the private sector if they ever are laid off. Having a public sector job on your resume is poison.

#185 BCObserver on 07.06.12 at 2:56 pm

#152 The American

I saw you can’t count, but you can’t read either. As I said in my prev post – US does not receive more immigrants than Canada if you take into account both countries population: 0.5 million of immigrants to 33 million of population for Canada, and one million to 311 millions for US respectively. So, Canada gets 5 times more.

Now about quality. Try to get a so called independent immigration to Canada without having at least a master degree+some years of experience+lots of cash. Impossible. Canada uses a point based qualifying system, and a benchmark is high. Only skilled folks can get through it. The only legal way to get a permanent residence in US is to win a green card. Anybody can do that. The rest of US immigrations are refugees – needless to say about any quality here.

#186 So it begins.... on 07.06.12 at 3:03 pm

#182 ISoldmyhouse

housing prices are seasonal. Prices peak in Spring and fall. That trend is true for most years. However I do believe that the housing market will not have enough momentum to surpass prices of oct and nov of last year

#187 Market Bull on 07.06.12 at 3:05 pm

#182 ISoldMyHouse:

The average price always peaks in the spring and then declines until the fall. It’s the same every year.
Your analysis is weak and superficial.

I suggest you do more research. Try the link below and check out the fifth and sixth graphs from the top that show TREB average and median prices for the past nine years

http://guava.ca/indicators.html

#188 Canadian Watchdog on 07.06.12 at 3:06 pm

#182 ISoldMyHouse

If the average price trends down to $450-460k by the end of this year, then the year-over-over comparisons for Jan-May 2013 is guaranteed to post declines greater then 10% for that time period. One can just imagine what negative media headlines starting January will do to buyers confidence, just in time for spring sales.

#189 Comfort food on 07.06.12 at 3:06 pm

To # 152:

Quality of people? Eugenics? Euthanasia? All for the right reasons. It would help the economy (terminated old folks would not be a burden on the society + all that freed real estate for quality immigration?. Bravo! You scored!

#190 Kenny Banya on 07.06.12 at 3:15 pm

@penpal

You’re right of course, nobody normal qualifies, which is why nobody normal buys anymore. My friends are mostly couples with two decent incomes and not a single one owns a home or plans to. They know condos are a bad bet, and they can’t qualify for a house. The market isn’t for us anymore. There’s little difference between a semi that’s “only” a million and one that’s $2m, or a detached that’s “only” $2.5m instead of $10m. They are unaffordable for 99% of people and attractive for rich people playing games with property.

I seem to recall a stat posted here a while back that something like 40% of the Toronto property market was straight cash, no mortgage required.

Surely the “million dollar hovel” I posted above wasn’t bought by someone scraping together monthly payments. It’s someone with seven figures burning a hole in their pocket who will instantly tear it down, spend another 2M building a new house, and be happy with it.

The Toronto property market isn’t for regular people anymore, we laugh at the “greater fools” of course but I would bet investors, offshore people looking to safely park money account for most of the market at this point.

The person who buys the decrepit old rental I lived in for ~$1m isn’t going to be a just-getting-by middle class family. It’s either PHD (parents have dough, daddy is buying you your million dollar fixer-upper, long term up/down trend makes little difference) or investors who smell a profitable flip.

#191 Smoking Man on 07.06.12 at 3:15 pm

#182 ISoldMyHouse

You should get a financial advisor asap cause with your anayalisis of the market you are doomed to lose on your own

Every mar or apr of every year since 2007 the yearly highs for real estate are hit in those months. Price generaly decline till about dec the make new highs the following april.

But hey logic and a full picture is not what you guys wana see.

But see for yourself. http://www.guava.ca

#192 Canadian Watchdog on 07.06.12 at 3:21 pm

#182 ISoldMyHouse

Correction: 10% declines would start in February if the average price trends down to $450-460 by the end of this year.

#193 Dividend Yield Investor on 07.06.12 at 3:28 pm

Now that the commodity bubble has burst so will the fortunes of countries that are tied to those once elevated prices. Profit margins will get pushed down and hence so will profits of corporate Canada.

This will hammer Canadian companies and the lay-offs will be coming soon. With a sky high RE market the fall will be gruesome and no prisoners will be taken.

If you have a property, you need to find a fool and sell it to them yesterday.

Best of Luck
Dividend Man

#194 John on 07.06.12 at 3:29 pm

#184 Toronto_CA wrote:

“Without the private sector, there’d be no public sector income. I’m surprised a PhD wouldn’t see the logic in this, but not surprised an overeducated underachiever is a public sector worker.”

—-

And without the public sector science, the private sector would be driven by mules and horses and your dentist’s main tool would be a set of pliers.

#195 Timbo on 07.06.12 at 3:33 pm

Garth,

You have a serious troll problem with some posts. Discussion is one thing but this is degrading into a vindictive tirade. It might be time for a ignore feature or a voting off the comment list button. Just a thought..

http://www.businessinsider.com/former-employee-describes-conditions-at-outsourced-best-buy-call-center-2012-7

“You are given 30 seconds in-between calls to document the call you have just handled. If you go over the 30 secs., a supervisor will either come over to see what you are doing, or, as the lazy ones do, they will yell at you from across the room.”

http://pricetags.wordpress.com/2012/04/16/chart-tax-rates-in-america/

““In a way, the United States is becoming like Old Europe, which is very strange in historical perspective,” Mr. Piketty said. “The United States used to be very egalitarian, not just in spirit but in actuality. Inequality of wealth and income used to be much larger in France. And very high taxes on the very rich — that was invented in the United States,” he said.

#196 Hoof - Hearted on 07.06.12 at 3:53 pm

Minimum wage for EVERYONE !
Scranton, PA mayor takes heat for slashing police, fire dept. paychecks

The mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania says he will defy a judge’s injunction and pay a few hundred city workers only minimum-wage because anything more will bankrupt the sixth-largest town in the state.

Nearly 400 city employees — including police officers, firefighters, staffers with the Department of Public Works and even the mayor — will be compensated with only $7.25 per hour starting with this week’s paycheck and continuing until Scranton can scrape together enough money to avoid bankruptcy.

Mayor Chris Doherty announced last Wednesday that 398 city workers will have their pay adjusted to the federal minimum wage starting with this Friday’s paycheck. On Thursday, July 5, unions representing local firefighters, police officers and other public workers filed a lawsuit to keep the city from breaking the salary agreements that are included in the contracts it has with its employees.

Lackawanna County Judge Michael Barrasse granted an injunction asked for by the International Association of Firefighters Local 60, the Fraternal Order of Police E.B. Jermyn Lodge No. 2 and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local Lodge No. 2305 early Thursday to stop Mr. Doherty from following through with his plan.

The mayor says he has no other choice, however, and will have to ignore the court’s decision.

“The judge can rule against us, but I don’t know how to pay the money,” the mayor tells Scranton’s Times-Tribune.

Thomas Jennings, the attorney representing the collective of unions, says separate contracts between the labor divisions and the city itself illustrate that the mayor cannot legally unilaterally slash pay without negotiations, but Mr. Doherty says, “What am I going to pay them with? We don’t have the money.”

City Solicitor Paul A. Kelly Jr. is backing the mayor’s plan as well. Responding to the judge’s insistence that the city compensate its staff as per their contractual salaries, Kelly says, “It’s not there.”

Doherty adds that the city has barely $300,000 to work with right now and even after adjusting this week’s paychecks to reflect the federal minimum wage, the city will have only $5,000 left over on Friday. By adjusting pay starting immediately, the mayor says the city will save $700,000 every two weeks.

Once Scranton has saved enough to get out of it debt, the city intends on paying back employees their deferred salaries. The Associated Press reports that Scranton’s current $71 million spending plan includes a $17 million deficit.

Judge Barrase will hear arguments from the mayor and city unions against on Friday when workers will rally for a more permanent preliminary injunction, but Doherty doesn’t see another solution right now.

Last October, Pennsylvania’s capital city—Harrisburg, PA—filed for municipal bankruptcy.

Update: this story was edited to clarify that Mayor Chris Doherty is also slated to be paid the federal minimum wage while the city tries to save money.

#197 DodgedBullet on 07.06.12 at 4:05 pm

#63 Xerglacia

Thanks, I will have to check my ETFs funds to see what type of real estate is held.

I figure that a housing contraction is going to hurt REITs that manage/hold business premises.

Thanks again, Ben.

#198 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 4:17 pm

#146 bridgepigeon on 07.06.12 at 11:26 am

Here’s another brilliant idea from our government. The plan is to take all the nuclear waste from all across Canada and bury it under Lake Huron at Port Elgin. The drinking water for millions, one of the most precious resources on the planet, could be jeopardized. Amazing but true…..this is really worth protesting…..
——
Sounds crazy but may not be. Radio active elements are large atoms and is why they are breaking down into smaller elements. Buy the fact that they are so big also makes them massive relative to most other elements and water, so they don’t dissolve into the water and they will sink to the bottom and stay there.

Now I’m no expert but I think that would be the gist of it.

#199 Bill Gable on 07.06.12 at 4:21 pm

Re: Canadian Immigration –

After spending a long time in Asia, Mexico and South America – I never met ONE person who was jumping up and down and yelling they wanted to move to Canada.

This Country has a severe case of perverse inferiority. On one hand we think we are the greatest place on the planet and we used to look like morons with our little Canada flags on our Backpacks (*back in the day) – which, BTW, was a great tip off for pickpockets…and yet in truth, this country is a backwater.

We mine, we cut down trees and we cut holes in Alberta that you can see from Space.

We huddle along the US Border, like fruit flies.

I love Canada – but I am sick up to here with morons saying that immigrants will bail out speckers and Flaherty and the peckerettes.

WRONG. Immigrants want to move to the USA. First choice. They wind up here, as long as they can game the system for as much as they can – and now, the clowns in Ottawa will pay these same folks, that are cheating, 2 grand to leave.

This place has gone nuts. Who would want a bung that leans over the Gardiner? They are going to have to rip that failing structure up, as slabs keep falling off it. Heck, it was a mess, when I lived in Toronto in the freaking Seventies, with my 18% mortgage on my bung on Sunnybrook Road. Holy Canoli!

God, how I wish our host was still in Parliament – (*if it ever comes back in session, while King Steven and minions like Bev “OJ” Oda, blow what’s left of the bazillions we have wasted over the years).

#200 Westernman on 07.06.12 at 4:23 pm

abraxas @ # 53,
Not that hard to believe really if you think about it… the Germans have forgotten more about craftsmanship than Canadians know, or have ever known for that matter.
Remember, the standard Canadian has more important things on their minds… like who’s hockey holligans are doing what, who’s buying the beer tonight, when the next golf game is and so forth and so on…
Examine the average Canadian’s mentality and you will understand why this country is the way it is…

#201 mikling on 07.06.12 at 4:27 pm

Canada Jobs Report

Public sector hiring was strong, with some 38,900 workers added, while the private sector laid off 26,000 employees.”

I thought that all levels of government were going to have to trim budgets. I just don’t get it. The pool of people paying taxes are shrinking and the pool using the taxes increasing?

#202 Inglorious Investor on 07.06.12 at 4:35 pm

#194 John on 07.06.12 at 3:29 pm

“And without the public sector science, the private sector would be driven by mules and horses and your dentist’s main tool would be a set of pliers.”

I think you may be suffering from a military industrial complex.

It’s true that a great deal of technology that we use today was developed originally for the purposes of killing people (e.g. the microchip) or defending ourselves against people who want to kill us (e.g. the Internet–well actually it was for protecting communications networks not people, but hey, whatever).

It’s also true that a great deal of the R&D was paid for by government. However, most of the technology was (and still is) actually developed by private companies.

And, where does the government get the MONEY to pay these mostly private companies? Come on… You know the answer… YES, the TAX PAYER.

Thus, no private wealth, no government science-cum-technology. No government jobs.

And by the way, I said you have a military industrial complex because this kind of large scale government sponsored R&D is actually relatively new in our history. Go back a littler further than the Truman administration. You’ll find all sorts of game-changing inventions were developed by inventors working with private investors. Things like the steam engine. The automobile. The light bulb. Wireless. Suspension bridges. You know, stuff like that.

Governments do not create wealth. We the people do.

#203 Toronto_CA on 07.06.12 at 4:43 pm

“And without the public sector science, the private sector would be driven by mules and horses and your dentist’s main tool would be a set of pliers.”

Lol that’s pretty funny. I’m very sure that technological and scientific innovation can be made by the private sector too, and I of course agree we need a public sector for many many vital tasks! I just don’t think we need a large, wasteful, entitled, unionized public sector. Especially not while running record deficits and debt levels. Times are changing at least. More people hate on public unions every day.

#204 Tony from Calgary on 07.06.12 at 4:46 pm

Garth,

Always loved the picture you selected for this blog posting back in December 2010:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/12/21/survival/

While it was the picture that might have caught my attention, it was also your claims of 15% housing correction, no depression (“unless one hell of a lot changes, and quickly”) and disparaging the views of the Automatic Earth (you remember – the “blog to suicide to”) that made me remember it so vividly.

Now that you’re talking 60% – 70% housing price crashes as being possible, I have to wonder if you’ll revisit your previous claims and when you will accept reduction in housing prices by 90% as something that is possible too?

Never bad to give credit where credit is due.
Just saying.

-TFC

No. — Garth

#205 Kam on 07.06.12 at 4:48 pm

184 Toronto_CA
Use your brain before you write anything.Stop photocopying childcare receipts and start studying for CICA in-depth tax course.It will help you to grow within your profession and you won’t waste your Private Sector employer’s money by sufring internet during the officetime.
Pulic Sector hires whenever private sector fires people to maintain the balance in the economy.I joined Public sector in 2010 and when I went for orientation I came to know that out of 50 new employees 35 were from private sector and that too from big corporations….not from John and peter tax services.
It seems that you tried hard to get into Public sector but faced rejection all the time.Grapes are sour.
Please focus on real estate and avoid this unnecessary topic of public vs pvt sector employee.

#206 Tony from Calgary on 07.06.12 at 4:49 pm

Apologies – looks like you already addressed the question in post #172

-TFC

#207 Kam on 07.06.12 at 5:01 pm

#181Toronto_CA
If private sector employees are so intelligent and hardworking then why private sector is falling all over Canad and not in Germany?

When private sector employees earn more than public sector – during economic boom- do you complaint at that time .

Now that we have recession and private sector is firing and you do not see any chance to get job in public sector,suddenly you realize that all public employees are fools and you are the only smartest person in the City.There are 100s of CAs with lots of experience in private sector who work for public sector.
Work hard,get more experiece and grow up and then think about joining the public sector.Till then…..keep on photocopying childcare receipts.

#208 Canadian Watchdog on 07.06.12 at 5:09 pm

TREB removed a total of 296 sales and 199 sales from last month. http://postimage.org/image/9nyxhmc3d/ (Original to latest sales listed from top to bottom.)

Alas, what helped TREB boost and manipulate sales and average prices will now work against them in a declining market, as lowering last year’s sales would only ‘increase’ the decline in growth rates.

Next month marks the one year timeline of TREB’s latest market report, making it a perfect opportunity to change their headline price to HPI and make changes to how revision are calculator. We shall see.

#201 mikling

Trim budgets? They’re cutting $5.2bn within three years when outstanding debt now exceeds $600bn, which is equivalent to paying $5 on your $600 credit card debt over the next three years. Public debt charges (the interest taxpayers pay on federal debt) alone is over $30bn a year.

#196 Hoof – Hearted

A major reduction of minimum wage is what Canada needs to restore competitiveness.

#191 Smoking Man

2012’s increase is nothing more then bidding wars and added pre-sales. This will be extinct come 2013, which only leaves this to happen.

#209 From Mississauga With Love on 07.06.12 at 5:39 pm

Guys, let’s take it easy with the enthusiasm. 2 years ago sales volume dropped by double digits in the GTA, and we started to party claiming the prices will drop thereafter. That happened also during the time that tightening took place from 35 to 30 years.

well, guess what happened?

I’ll believe it when I see it. Remember people here are more stupid than their US counterparts and it takes them longer to realize something has changed.

#210 2true on 07.06.12 at 5:46 pm

#201 if that is true

That more public employees were hired and less private sectors jobs were available, we have another Greece in the making.

#211 Pat on 07.06.12 at 5:58 pm

@#202 Inglorious Investor,

Do you know the difference between science and technology?
General relativity – science
Satellites relying on general relativity to compute trajectory – technology

#212 brainsail on 07.06.12 at 5:59 pm

#205 Kam

How many private sector jobs are needed to pay through taxation for each public sector job?

#213 Realtors in an all out PANIC on 07.06.12 at 6:04 pm

Canadian Watchdog great post. Hey garth can you do an article on TREB and the fact they remove sales which allow them to manipulate the stats. The crash in sales in Toronto is worse then reported. Where is the media to report on this IMO criminal activity. Realtors like smokingman are a slimy group of uneducated criminals. In any case it’s going to be a nasty crash.

#214 Hoof - Hearted on 07.06.12 at 6:10 pm

#201 mikling on 07.06.12 at 4:27 pm

Canada Jobs Report

Public sector hiring was strong, with some 38,900 workers added, while the private sector laid off 26,000 employees.”

===================================

Old trick.

Many of the layoffs are retired early, paid out, bridged pensions, jobs not filled etc.

Usually a lot of squawking if there were REAL layoffs. Often given new positions in other departments, or new hirees…then next Gov’t comes in and follows same pattern.

PS probably a lot of hirees are in CRS….trying to get more blood out of fewer stones.

#215 Toronto_CA on 07.06.12 at 6:15 pm

#207 Kam on 07.06.12 at 5:01 pm

Despite their job security and generous benefits, federal workers take more than twice as many sick days as other Canadians. I wonder why that is?

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/News/national/2012/06/21/19905831.html

There is a reason people are angry at public sector unions right now. Maybe go look in the mirror?

“Till then…..keep on photocopying childcare receipts.”

This is a nice attack on me. I volunteered recently with the CA tax clinic for low income individuals, and did help a few with childcare deductions:

http://www.icao.on.ca/Public/FreeCATaxClinics/1007page1057.aspx

But I haven’t done that for a living since I articled with Deloitte in the 90s.

I’m actually at home today, not surfing the net from work. Thank you for your worry about my employer. Since you aren’t a shareholder of my company you needn’t concern yourself tho. As I am a shareholder of your “company” I am worried about your diction. Please work on it.

#216 John on 07.06.12 at 6:25 pm

#203 Toronto_CA wrote:

“I’m very sure that technological and scientific innovation can be made by the private sector too”

Science hardly. The public sector is too short-sighted for this and the outcome of basic research is unpredictable.

[Note – I am not arguing that Canada does not have a bloated government (at various levels) bureaucracy, unqualified and overpaid teachers, grossly overpaid medical workers (due to artificial under supply), and so on and so on… Just the comment about “overeducated PhD’s”]

#217 Pierre on 07.06.12 at 6:30 pm

Garth, could you blog a bit about the Montreal housing market? Or asked differently, Toronto is likely to be a unique market. Are the other major cities in Canada all equally exposed to the bubble? Where is the best source of information to assess the situation? Articles in the general press are always so analytically disappointing…

#218 John on 07.06.12 at 6:42 pm

#202 Inglorious Investor wrote:

“You’ll find all sorts of game-changing inventions were developed by inventors working with private investors. Things like the steam engine. The automobile. The light bulb. Wireless. Suspension bridges. You know, stuff like that.”


For the steam engine you need some basic thermodynamics. For the light bulb and wireless, electrodynamics comes in handy. For bridges – the laws of mechanics and some mathematics. For computer chips – solid state physics. For quantum computing and solar energy – quantum mechanics. Stuff like that, that you clearly don’t know.

#219 American Werewolf in BC on 07.06.12 at 6:55 pm

#208 Canadian Watchdog on 07.06.12 at 5:09 pm
A major reduction of minimum wage is what Canada needs to restore competitiveness.

==============

I couldn’t agree more. The Canadians affected can still drive the economy as consumers too by just using a HELOC instead of their wages. After all, we are richer than we think.

That Henry Ford guy was a lousy socialist

#220 house burden on 07.06.12 at 6:57 pm

Euro is the titanic hitting the iceberg and there isn’t enough lifeboats

http://youtu.be/W_F4I-pUgSE

#221 American Werewolf in BC on 07.06.12 at 7:05 pm

#196 Hoof – Hearted on 07.06.12 at 3:53 pm

Brilliant move by the mayor. In the midst of deflation, deficient demand and private sector money running away from the economy, lets close off the taps on public monies and somehow hope Taoistic capitalism magically saves everyone. Some people think the best way to get out of a recession is for anyone and everyone to stop spending money I guess…and they win election with that garbage.

#222 jess on 07.06.12 at 7:05 pm

the tax free wealth in France seem to have come in brown envelopes

France: Mystery of the L’Oreal heir, ‘Mr Nicolas’ and the envelopes stuffed with euros Guardian
Jul 3 – Saga of tax evasion, large cash transfers from Swiss bank accounts, and allegations of illegal campaign contributions.
=========

Investigators are untangling a web of scandals involving alleged illegal party-funding with banknotes variously stuffed into bags, briefcases and brown envelopes, as well as phone interceptions.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/03/loreal-nicolas-sarkozy-bettencourt?INTCMP=SRCH
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/28/nicolas-sarkozy-ally-spying-scandal

#223 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.06.12 at 7:19 pm


5:42 clip Here’s an outstanding way of closing out the 4th of July this week. If the hair on the back of your neck doesn’t stand up, you don’t have the volume turned up enough! Andre Rieu and The Scottish Pipers.
*
#193 Dividend Yield Investor — “Now that the commodity bubble has burst so will the fortunes of countries that are tied to those once elevated prices.” — That’s what the CPC are shitting bricks on. If Cdn. commodity supplies to Europe dry up, Canada is done like dinner (and everything else in it).

#196 Hoof – Hearted — “Minimum wage for EVERYONE !” — Nailed it. One sentence says exactly what TPTB want in the west. Exc. post.
*
Bank Glitches Russia’s turn; The Next Bailout “It looks as though the problems in the housing market are about to go from really bad to incredibly worse.” wrh.com; JPM and the Vatican In bed together; Spain and Germany “This is all starting to unravel, and may start to do so very quickly.” wrh.com; Banxter corruption exposed (most here already knew that banxters were greedy and corrupt); UN proposes new tax, most of which will be picked up by the poor; Libor, Barclays and Diamond Getting juicy; Unemployment Rate All sunshine and lollipops and taken with a grain of salt; 1:49 clip “Europe (in this case France) knows this is a top story while the US media is still going on about Tom Cruise’s latest marital mishap.” wrh.com. Libor was already in place prior to 2007, and Banking scandals “The bankers know they are busted for running a Ponzi scheme banking system that has finally collapsed, and are desperate to evade the coming firestorm of public anger demanding major changes to how bankers are allowed to operate.” wrh.com. The entire system is rotten to the core; Germany “If the German High Court finds that forcing Germans to sacrifice to pay bank debts in other countries is not allowed under the German Constitution, this will destroy the Eurozone bailout deal and possibly the Eurozone itself, which will in turn trigger those credit default swaps Wall Street recklessly sold on Europe’s debt.” wrh.com.
*
It’s Final US will strike Iran (on Israel’s orders); Fukushima The protests, against the govt. begin; Impeached Interesting that just after Romania lets the US park its military there, the prez. is impeached; 4:27 clip What happens if Russia stands firm in Syria? Does the west go home? Not a chance. They’re too bloody greedy; 4:18 clip Wikileaks – CIA’s tool; 3:33 clip Fracking causes ‘quakes, that much is known but fracking in California? 1:10 clip War mentality. Apocalypse Now all over again; Android malware #’s skyrocketing; Russia and China drive Billary bonkers; Paraguay coup and CIA Aren’t dubya’s dorks involved down there? Pentagon Contractor caught selling illegally to China.

#224 P & T S on 07.06.12 at 7:27 pm

Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 4:17 pm

– Sounds crazy but may not be. Radio active elements are large atoms and is why they are breaking down into smaller elements. Buy the fact that they are so big also makes them massive relative to most other elements and water, so they don’t dissolve into the water and they will sink to the bottom and stay there.

Now I’m no expert but I think that would be the gist of it.

Unfortunately this is not the case: the “lighter daughter products” tend to be unstable (i.e. radioactive) isotopes of lighter elements (eg I 131, Cs 137), many of which can react directly with water, or form very water soluble salts (such as CsCl). Apart from which we have the problem of residual Plutonium which is VERY reactive with water, Sr (soluble as the chloride), and numerous others.

Cs and Sr are both “bone seekers” and have both been firmly implicated in osteosarcoma. Sr 90 is even used (or rather used to be used) for palliation of metastatic bone disease (hence the “catchy” tradeneme – “Metastron”!)

Having worked in “The Industry” (UK Nuc. Regulatory Commission) – trust us, burying your “hot” waste (with a significant half life mix too) anywhere near aquifers, or in the vicinity of any potable water supply source, is definitely NOT a very good idea AT ALL!!

#225 Fabrega on 07.06.12 at 7:27 pm

Off topic.

BC crapolitics at its best:

“BREAKING NEWS: CHRISTY CLARK CLEARLY LIED ABOUT HER INVOLVEMENT IN THE SALE OF BC RAIL–SHE MUST RESIGN IMMEDIATELY; BORNMANN “RESPONSIBLE” FOR CLARK CABINET APPEARANCES; RCMP SLEEPING; CTV OWES BC PUBLIC AN APOLOGY”

Alex Tsakumis weblog.

#226 espressobob on 07.06.12 at 7:28 pm

Nothing better than a year round property up north here in ontario to get away from the GTA. Still waiting for the crash! Hurry Up!

#227 cramar on 07.06.12 at 7:31 pm

Having just sold my house via Comfree I was perusing their discussion forums. I noted several people saying that the housing market has suddenly contracted. This one says it all from North York (Toronto):

“It seemed as soon as we listed our house, the housing market in Toronto stood still. In our area, houses get sold in two weeks almost regardless in price. Now they are just sitting there. Our house is the lowest in the area and listed in REALTOR.CA and no one even want to see it! Of course, I get tons of calls from agents…and even worse, multiple calls from the same agents. I did told them that we will work with buyer agents and they will get their hefty commission from us.”

#228 TRT on 07.06.12 at 7:38 pm

The editor(s) at Cnd Mortgage Trends website are loosing all credibility since these new rules were announced by F.

Now they are becoming emotional…saying new mortgage rules will have the effect of rising rents…. please!

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/07/newtons-third-law-of-housing.html#more

If the person that wrote the article had some knowledge, he would reference Quantum Mechanics (action at a distance) rather than Newton’s Law. Newtons Law would imply that rising prices are being pushed back…nothing to do with rents.

Seems Garth is mentor to many website moguls.

#229 JO on 07.06.12 at 7:47 pm

Hi Garth, you should write up the impact of a quirk in the rules which will likely destroy many a speculator and home”owner” (debtRENTER more like it in fact). Lending money is part of what i do for a respectable FI. The rules state any mortgages under the 30 yr amort (old rules) must be funded no later than Dec 31. For anyone closing a builder condo or new home past that who was a tight approval under 30 yrs amort will need to qualify at 25 yrs or come up with more dough for the down payment. We have recieved some calls already from specs who bought two new homes under 30 yr pre approvals and are scared shitless. You could see a rapid acceleration to the downside in prices by Oct-Nov. I am betting we will be down 15-20 % by Dec 2013. About time. Cheaper housing.
JO

#230 eagle eyes on 07.06.12 at 7:50 pm

“The Toronto property market isn’t for regular people anymore, we laugh at the “greater fools” of course but I would bet investors, offshore people looking to safely park money account for most of the market at this point.”

I just wonder, even for the millionaire offshore investor, does it make sense to “park” your money in Canada’s real estate market if you sense that it may drop 10-15%. I mean, yes you have lots of money and can afford a small loss, but why would you want to? Most of the suspicious money coming from overseas may have come about “easily” but shrewdness and greed will prevail. As for myself, if I “came upon” lotsa money, I don’t think I would invest in Canada RE. I would follow the China herd to the United States. Prices can only go up there, but here in Canada…. who knows?

#231 JO on 07.06.12 at 7:55 pm

The fine print on the new changes and old rules.
http://www.fin.gc.ca/n12/data/12-070_2-eng.asp

#232 Mr Buyer on 07.06.12 at 8:09 pm

#230eagle eyes on 07.06.12 at 7:50 pm
“The Toronto property market isn’t for regular people anymore, we laugh at the “greater fools” of course but I would bet investors, offshore people looking to safely park money account for most of the market at this point.”
………………………………………………
Same assertions about Van a few months ago.

#233 Marshy on 07.06.12 at 8:20 pm

#200 Westernman

I knew it …. you are a nazi, aren’t you? I guess the standard Canadian would not qualify for your version of the master race … especially one from Saskatchewan.

#234 Tony on 07.06.12 at 8:22 pm

In the next few years we’ll find out what happens to property taxes as Canada goes broke like Europe. Probably the same as America raise property taxes to crush a falling housing market. This would mean the housing market will never come back just like in America five to seven years straight down followed by 20 years of sideways prices.

#235 The American on 07.06.12 at 8:29 pm

At #185: BCObserver, your math doesnt add up. Plain and simple. Canada receives about 281,000 legal immigrants to a country with 33MM people (you claimed over a half million), or about 0.8% of your population. The U.S. receives 1.5MM legal immigrants each year, not including work visas or students (that’s over five times the amount of what Canada receives, mind you). That’s 0.48% of the U.S. population. So, Canada receives less than two times what the U.S. receives, per capita. Clearly, you cannot even do simple arithmetic as you claimed it was five times greater in Canada.

Now, onto your false argument about quality of immigration. Canada’s point system is laughable as is the U.S. I can simply take my half million dollar investment to Canada and the rest is a cake walk. No degree needed. This I know for a fact.

The 0.8% of Canada’s aggregated population that is immigrating there will not even be close to what is necessary to absorb the nasty amount of excess inventory sitting on the devlopers’ books up there.

Watch and wait. I’m sure it is difficult for someone without cognitive thinking skills, such as yourself, to comprehend. Get back to me in six monts and let me know how tats working out for you, will you? :-)

#236 Tony on 07.06.12 at 8:33 pm

Re: #227 cramar on 07.06.12 at 7:31 pm

Drop your price and keep on dropping it until it sells. If you wait too long you’ll likely drop at least a couple of hundred grand. This is the classic mistake the average moron makes not selling when they had the chance. In this market you could die of old age before you ever get another chance even if you’re a teenager.

#237 John on 07.06.12 at 8:37 pm

If anyone wants to know the timing on the Toronto real estate reel-in, just check out the Syria scam. Keep on that. The world ponzi crumble will require what’s being built there.

Toronto’s real estate is just a branch of the world ponzi crumble.

It’s simple. Just put “Manaf Tlass” into google and search. How many pages of this “major Syrian general who defected” come up. I got to 35 pages. That’s how fast and deep they seeded this particular chapter of the scam.

After 35 pages of sites “Manaf Tlass” disappears. He’s a non-entity on wikipedia. But he’s WORLD NEWS in the big “power struggle in Syria”.

Toronto’s bubble rose and will fall on the direction of the ponzi scheme. It’s actually that simple. Check out what ponzi owners did on the net. 35 pages of sites. Most don’t exceed 24 hours. They’ll run the timing thankyou very much.

Just sayin’….

#238 jess on 07.06.12 at 8:47 pm

the gov. as monitors

a $24-billion project for a underground facility.

The DGR would be positioned far under a spit that
sticks out into Lake Huron, and would only be monitored for 300 years by the Canadian government. It is acknowledged that water will likely eventually seep into the site. There are many radionuclides that will be put into this proposed dump that have half-lives MUCH greater than 300 years, including isotopes of plutonium. These wastes are currently kept in storage onsite, adjacent the land that the Bruce reactors are on.

The Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) has a mandate from the Canadian government to find a permanent storage place for irradiated fuel (“high level” waste) for all of Canada’s nuclear reactors. OPG’s (Ontario Power Generation’s) proposed deep underground radioactive dump adjacent the Bruce nuclear reactors by Kincardine, Ontario, reportedly would NOT contain irradiated fuel. Many observers remain skeptical, however -especially with the NWMO now working side by side with OPG on this proposal

#239 Inglorious Investor on 07.06.12 at 9:03 pm

#211 Pat on 07.06.12 at 5:58 pm wrote:
“Do you know the difference between science and technology?”

#218 John on 07.06.12 at 6:42 pm wrote:
“For the steam engine you need some basic thermodynamics. […] Stuff like that, that you clearly don’t know.”

Of course technology is based on science. But science only increases living standards (which was John’s original point) when it is APPLIED, as it is in technologies like steam engines, microprocessors, wireless communications, solar panels, bridges, etc.

Did I really have to clarify this?

The claim that there would be no science without government (and thus dentists would be using pliers) is ridiculous.

#240 new-era on 07.06.12 at 9:06 pm

#228 TRT on 07.06.12 at 7:38 pm

The editor(s) at Cnd Mortgage Trends website are loosing all credibility since these new rules were announced by F.

Now they are becoming emotional…saying new mortgage rules will have the effect of rising rents…. please!

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/07/newtons-third-law-of-housing.html#more

=============

I’ve been watching rent for the past several months. They been going down in vancouver / burnaby area.

You can get a nice place 1000sf for around 1100 close to skytrain in burnaby

#241 Keeping the Faith on 07.06.12 at 9:09 pm

#125 Deb

Do i need to remind you that you are in SK?

Who were you talking to … the Dali Lama, a la Regina??!?!?

How about this for a line “You buy a house, you lose money and your gfriend will never K_ss you again”?

This is Regina i think you may hit a nerve.
the same could happen if they married.

nice attempt, sorry it didn’t work out.

#242 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 10:23 pm

And without the public sector science, the private sector would be driven by mules and horses and your dentist’s main tool would be a set of pliers.
—–
Are you nuts?
Yes, maybe there is some good work done, especially in theoretical sciences, but the best and bulk of applied science is done by the private sector. In the USA through the 1800s-1900s, science was all private sector. Edison, Westinghouse, GE, DOW, Dupont, 3M, Hughs, Wright Brothers….

The public sector has always been and always will be a burden.

Hey Toronto CA, I have a question. Is default, asin a bad debt owed to a bank via credit expansion inflationary, deflationary or neutral?

#243 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 10:47 pm

#218 John on 07.06.12 at 6:42 pm

#202 Inglorious Investor wrote:

“You’ll find all sorts of game-changing inventions were developed by inventors working with private investors. Things like the steam engine. The automobile. The light bulb. Wireless. Suspension bridges. You know, stuff like that.”


For the steam engine you need some basic thermodynamics. For the light bulb and wireless, electrodynamics comes in handy. For bridges – the laws of mechanics and some mathematics. For computer chips – solid state physics. For quantum computing and solar energy – quantum mechanics. Stuff like that, that you clearly don’t know.
—–
I’m no technological historian but I know it was Marconi and Tesla who were instrumental in communications. It was Maxwell who mathematically modeled electromagnetics. Metallurgy has been a long time development from brass to bronze, copper, iron, aluminum and now so many incredible metal alloys, most of which are developed to suit applied applications and products. Neodymiumis a big element now for new steels, makes them lighter and stronger. I’m sure it was private sector developed.

#244 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 10:53 pm

For computer chips – solid state physics. For quantum computing and solar energy – quantum mechanics. Stuff like that, that you clearly don’t know.
—-
Bell labs did the first semiconductor transistor, private sector USA. Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. Quantum mechanics was Einstein, Plank, Boher etc… university level guys, funded research but even Einstein was self funded and funded by the private sector. See the movie Einstein and Eddington.

#245 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 10:57 pm

Whether the work was done in a university or a corporation is irrelevant, it’s people who have a purpose who make discoveries and solve problems. But most problems and new inventions are found to serve a purpose and economic good. Huge amounts of money have been wasted sending space ships into space and we very little to show for it. Yes the Hubble telescope is amazing! But overall we spent a lot of money for nothing thanks to the governments and their lofty, high and mighty fantasies.

#246 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.06.12 at 11:07 pm

#224 P & T S on 07.06.12 at 7:27 pm
Very cool, like I said, I don’t know and obviously I don’t! Yes, I knew cesium is chemically the same as calcium and is taken up in bones. Not good.

One thing I know, and some of my friends don’t believe me when I say this, but I know there’s a lot I don’t know! So thanks for the info. My logic was very simple but I could see there being all sort of by products that are still active.

#247 cynically on 07.07.12 at 3:34 am

#199 got it absolutely right about Canadians and those coming into Canada. Theay are just settling for this country temporarily until they can get a green card. All the action is across the line and you better believe it. If you want to see how ridiculous it is in Vancouver, google – thethirtiesgrind.com. It’s insane.

#248 lookoutbelow on 07.07.12 at 10:08 am

I will readily admit, I am not smart about Real Estate. I can never pick the bottom or the top, so it was interesting to find an article by Keith Roy from Vancouver about the West Side supply and demand.

For once, there is “simple plain logic” from a Vancouver Realtor:

Full Text of Keith Roy article:

http://keithroy.com/blog.html/time-to-cash-out–1976393
Thanks Keith……

For those in a hurry, nice consolidation of 10 Year Data:

The Greater Vancouver real estate market is anchored on the west side of Vancouver.

Two key factors drive real estate activity – Supply and Demand. These factors work together to determine volume and prices. The equations looks like this:

Low supply + low demand = Prices are stable.
High supply + high demand = Prices are stable.
Low supply + high demand = Prices go up.
High supply + low demand = Prices go down.

Supply
WEST SIDE MLS DETACHED LISTINGS 2003 – 2012

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average

JAN 592 489 442 370 344 374 694 380 402 796 488
FEB 634 498 473 359 375 430 708 430 463 777 515
MAR 710 556 472 404 384 514 677 521 525 854 562
APR 737 581 508 412 469 690 653 669 590 949 626
MAY 760 686 511 452 448 862 591 794 599 1,067 677
JUN 803 783 502 477 499 982 586 797 603 1,078 711
JUL 810 799 520 502 466 996 551 720 632 666
AUG 741 769 551 530 422 915 497 681 643 639
SEP 746 784 574 622 504 1053 570 675 823 706
OCT 682 720 545 621 422 1014 527 575 827 659
NOV 604 642 486 507 394 949 451 450 705 576
DEC 511 500 374 385 291 756 325 331 558 448

There are only 4 months in the last 10 years where the number of available houses on the west side of Vancouver was higher than 1000 – September and October 2008 and May and June 2012.

The truth of the supply side of the equation is:

There are more sellers competing to sell their home on the west side of Vancouver now than at any time in the last 10 years!

Demand
WEST SIDE MLS DETACHED SALES 2003 – 2012

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average

JAN 112 103 67 77 90 75 46 102 134 86 89
FEB 142 150 136 159 133 138 100 130 242 177 151
MAR 175 170 200 176 170 136 144 208 279 152 181
APR 168 205 205 158 162 121 193 193 214 130 175
MAY 179 179 210 201 246 142 232 150 228 122 189
JUN 180 154 185 181 177 105 200 147 213 102 164
JUL 197 139 142 122 170 88 180 122 139 144
AUG 176 115 156 119 158 46 202 134 130 137
SEP 161 125 160 106 112 46 175 143 104 126
OCT 186 119 133 140 156 52 200 161 120 141
NOV 160 113 121 121 115 25 141 161 121 120
DEC 101 103 102 65 56 56 133 116 62 88

Demand for homes on the west side of Vancouver is falling. In fact, it has been falling for 5 straight months. Demand has actually been about 35% – 40% off of the 10 year average for 4 months now. If this trend keeps up the number of sales in July will drop below 100 – which it has only done once in the last 10 years – July 2008 – which was just 4 months before the worst month ever which produced one of the sharpest price drops Vancouver has ever seen.

#249 TurnerNation on 07.07.12 at 2:18 pm

#110 The guy from corner store on 07.06.12 at 8:22 am

“blogue”?

Is this the french spelling? :)

Are we Chiens de blogue?

#250 TurnerNation on 07.07.12 at 2:33 pm

#141coastal on 07.06.12 at 10:51 am

An altruistic realtor? Come now. His machinations are merely serving as ploys with which to gain listings.

Taking advantage of buyers’ “Stockholm Syndrome” (google that one), realtors playing the ‘good guy’.

It’s the classic boiler room scam. The Cleaner calls you after a loss, promising to recoup your losses with yet another “investment”.

#251 Westernman on 07.07.12 at 2:57 pm

Marshy @ # 232,
I don’t know about this Nazi crap, as it is a much overused term favoured by liberals when someone has the audacity to speak the truth – but having said that the facts remain true when comparing German technological ingenuity to Pre-pubescent Canadian drunks – facts are stubborn things kid… best get used to dealing with reality cause sooner or later it will prevail…

#252 Marshy on 07.07.12 at 8:48 pm

#250 Westernman

“sigh” …. I couldn’t resist after you threw in the reference to German technology.

You really are a clown.

#253 Westernman on 07.07.12 at 10:43 pm

Marshy @ # 251,
Try as you might you just can’t get around the fact that Canadians ( as a general rule ) have not and indeed cannot invent anything… well maybe a new and innovative way to open beer bottles and tape hockey sticks…
Don’t forget to provide a list of all the great Canadian inventions over the last 100 years in your next post…
It’ll be a damn short list…

#254 Marshy on 07.08.12 at 1:12 am

Westernman @252

Here’s a few:

http://careerchem.com/NAMED/Canadian-Inventions.html

Only covers about 10 years.

#255 Marshy on 07.08.12 at 1:27 am

Westernman @252

My bad … covers a little more than 10 years.

My favorite is the Goalie Mask by Jacques in 1960.

#256 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 07.08.12 at 10:39 am

The government created this housing bubble. Explanation of how they and why is in the bottom half of this article:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html

Finally, the government is reversing some of the things they’ve done to create this bubble.

#257 bill on 07.08.12 at 3:28 pm

It’ll be a damn short list… of things we didnt invent?
that fessenden guy was particularly dull witted EH?

#258 Westernman on 07.08.12 at 6:15 pm

Marshy @ # 253,
Hilarious, lol. Where did that phony list come from… Stat’s Can? Christ, you Canadians will believe anything the Government tells you…
Although the goalie mask sounds believable…