Chaos

The real estate market everywhere will be in turmoil by September. The bankers know it. The realtors smell it. The sheeple have no idea what’s coming.

Investor and consumer behaviour’s been irrational. Your friends, relatives and the people at work have been employing leverage on a scale not seen since the 1920s to speculate that assets already priced at record levels will go higher. Net worth has been consolidated in houses, as it was in stocks prior to the Great Depression and in US real estate before the GFC. The consequences will be the same. F knows this. It’s why the hammer dropped two weeks ago. Too late.

An astonishing number of people are about to be turned into crispy critters by something they see as safe and benign. A whack of them lined up outside a new Vancouver-area condo development called Cambie+7 a few days ago – the latest reminder of the lust we saw weeks ago north of Toronto when people stormed a sales centre and bought million-dollar homes in five minutes.

Here they are:

What they’re buying: Lilliputian units (less than 600 feet), in an unbuilt structure in a regional city with a declining real estate market for an average of $710 a square foot. Why? Two reasons. “Proven value appreciation,” says the developer. “Condos in the area went up 35% in the last three years.” So, of course, they’ll go up forever. Second, a 5% deposit – putting rank speculation on a $500,000 asset within the grasp of anyone with $25,000.

By the way, here’s what half a million (including closing costs) gets you:

That real estate is troubled will become apparent to everyone in a few months. For those who care to look now, the cracks are widening. Quite apart from the public delusion mentioned above, Vancouver (for example) is unraveling. In the next day or so the real estate board will try to caramelize and fluff the latest ugly set of numbers. But June was a disaster, as this pathetic blog told you would happen.

  • Sales of detached houses crashed 37%
  • Prices have declined for four consecutive months, the first such occurrence in 16 years.
  • The average SFH has lost almost 13% of its value, likely one-third or less of what’s coming.
  • Condo sales were down 20%. Prices were down 6% in a single month.
  • Listings of detached homes have exploded higher 27% over this time a year ago.

But this is not a Vancouver story. It will define economic lives in every significant community. Prices could actually revert to the mean, which historically places the cost of owning a house close to that of renting the same digs. By this measure houses in Toronto and Vancouver are overvalued by about half. You can just imagine the consequences.
Bankers can. That elfin deity known as F tried to calm jittery Bay Street nerves with a conference call on Friday, addressing head-on fears that slashing the amortization rate and curtailing lending will crash housing. It didn’t work. “We are prepared to take that risk, quite frankly, because of the greater risk of the development over time of a housing bubble,” he said. “I realize it may have some dampening effect on the economy and I realize it may have some dampening effect in the residential real estate market.”

For their part bankers are uncharacteristically speaking out. As RBC’s head of banking told a Globe reporter, “This is not like turning a Ferrari. This is like a big ship. And it takes a while to turn. And sometimes if you over steer, you can’t re-steer the other way.”

It’s all just beginning. The odds of us having a soft landing, as I detailed last week, are fading daily. One on hand the lenders, agents, developers, brokers and bankers understand what just happened and where it’s leading. On the other, idiot buyers, popped on leverage, are embracing deals they see as riskless.

When the facts emerge, expect chaos at the exits.

281 comments ↓

#1 D from the P-town on 07.02.12 at 5:15 pm

First time being first!

#2 Harry Palms on 07.02.12 at 5:20 pm

Nice traffic lights atop that bridge!

Early as hell today……first?

#3 unbalanced on 07.02.12 at 5:21 pm

It will be very interesting to see what happens in Winnipeg. Keep up the great work Garth. Much appreciated.

#4 Nodebt on 07.02.12 at 5:24 pm

First!!!!

#5 a prairie dawg on 07.02.12 at 5:26 pm

Chaos indeed. ;)

#6 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.02.12 at 5:27 pm

Im sorry “Timing is Everything” I was wrong.

I said July 2nd would see rain and highs of 16 deg cel. in Vancouver
It’s STILL raining and the high today is 14 cel.
But , hey! I was just going with what the weatherman predicted…………..

#7 Sean on 07.02.12 at 5:28 pm

Preach it.

#8 Harry Palms on 07.02.12 at 5:28 pm

#105 teachers don’t get paid for summer on 07.02.12 at 11:54 am
#99 Harry Palms

basically, you are an idiot…………

:) Tough to argue with this, except to say SO ARE YOU!

I never said teachers were paid for summer vacation. I said they were paid $93K for about 3/4 of a work year.

When you’re considering compensation per unit of effort, that’s equivalent to a professional working a “full” work year at $109K or so.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter. I’m not arguing overpaid or underpaid, just that the compensation is pretty good, and that many work just as hard (harder?) for less.

#9 bbrodriguez on 07.02.12 at 5:29 pm

Uh, Garth, I hate to quibble, but cambie and 7th can hardly be described as “not on a transit line”. The Canada line subway/skytrain runs right along cambie, underground, and there’s a station at cambie and 9th (aka broadway) and at cambie and 2nd.

How is that not on a transit line?

#10 Doug in BC on 07.02.12 at 5:30 pm

Who’s on First?

#11 B P O E $$ on 07.02.12 at 5:30 pm

I bumped into my Vancouver RE agent who sold my home yesterday, asked how biz was going… he no longer had any spin, just the look of depression… i think his fingers are pernamently crossed.

So glad i sold when the gettn was good!

#12 bizznach on 07.02.12 at 5:32 pm

beatcha

#13 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.02.12 at 5:35 pm

is that SUV in the pic a chevy ?

#14 Devore on 07.02.12 at 5:35 pm

Everything ok down in Kelowna?

Calgary food bank trucks surplus stock to Kelowna food bank

Groceries have been trucked in from Calgary to help the Kelowna food bank weather an unexpected surge in demand.

Nearly 11,400 kilograms of non-perishables were delivered this week to the Ellis Street depot, where applications for assistance are up 12 per cent from this time last year.

Guess instead of excess wealthy retirees, Alberta is sending food aid.

#15 Backstep on 07.02.12 at 5:35 pm

I discovered your awesome blog yesterday, and spent half the night reading it in backwards chronological order. You and F are both heroes.

OMG. — Garth

#16 Island Girl on 07.02.12 at 5:35 pm

Well having watched both family and friends leap into home ownership in the last month, I hope for their sake they can handle the losses. Guess I couldn’t convince them to wait.

#17 Toronto_CA on 07.02.12 at 5:35 pm

What’s truly frightening is that the Vancouver numbers are crashing now in June…when we’re at record low interest rates AND, the kicker, the changes to the mortgage rules haven’t been implemented yet. If it’s this bad in Vancouver already–what happens after July 9th? What the heck happens when rates start to go UP to a more normal 5+% mortgage instead of 2.99%?

The not-a-Ferrari ship just got steered into an iceberg.

#18 Horndog on 07.02.12 at 5:35 pm

Any more pics of the top girl?

#19 borrrrower on 07.02.12 at 5:39 pm

Yeah! First!

#20 Q on 07.02.12 at 5:41 pm

“This is not like turning a Ferrari. This is like a big ship. And it takes a while to turn. And sometimes if you over steer, you can’t re-steer the other way.”

….just like the Titanic…..

#21 theworstone on 07.02.12 at 5:44 pm

“When the facts emerge, expect chaos at the exits”

It will be so bad that even if you can reach for an exit it will be too late… when time comes for the sheep to react, the ship will be already half submerged

#22 Pete in Barrie on 07.02.12 at 5:44 pm

Doesn’t seem like a very good time to buy. Actually, IMHO (always wanted to use that) it hasn’t been a good time to buy in year. Why can’t people see that?

Only good thing about the internet, there is no excuse for ignorance any more. Hasn’t cured stupidity though.

#23 Pete in Barrie on 07.02.12 at 5:45 pm

Typo – that should have said “years”. Makes a big difference.

#24 NAM not HAM on 07.02.12 at 5:46 pm

Garth,

Cambie & w 7 ave is 2 blocks away from a skytrain station. That’s why these people are lining up.

I know where it is. They are delusional. — Garth

#25 PoorgEoisie on 07.02.12 at 5:47 pm

Co-worker just bought in missisauga, he’s going to do some renos to the basement and rent half for 1300 and the other half for 1600. Any takers?

#26 Little Phil on 07.02.12 at 5:50 pm

Merci Garth! I’m scared and excited…

#27 mac on 07.02.12 at 5:50 pm

Uh can you take a look at your picture? Then open today’s G&M. The very same people standing in line are the ones the people in Hong Kong are complaining about for driving up their real estate prices. Not everything is local anymore.

#28 Dano on 07.02.12 at 5:52 pm

Furrrrrrrrrrsttttt…. Right?

#29 Boneshaft on 07.02.12 at 5:54 pm

“This is not like turning a Ferrari. This is like a big ship. And it takes a while to turn. And sometimes if you over steer, you can’t re-steer the other way.”

Too bad they weren’t think this when the 0/40 rules came into effect.

#30 Realtors , Mortgage Brokers and Bankers in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 07.02.12 at 5:56 pm

The new rules haven’t kicked in yet and bankers are all ready crying that the new rules will CRASH Canada’s housing ponzi. Yes Canada has the BIGGEST HOUSING PONZI in the world. In Toronto CONDO’s are exploding on the market as flippers and gamblers are trying to get out before the ponzi comes crashing to the ground.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/banks-warn-ottawa-over-lending-rules/article4384451/

Bankers , realtors and mortgage brokers hate the tiny taste of the free markets. Canada is in a monster of a housing bubble that needs to crash over 50% to get back to the NORMAL ratio of 3-3.5 times income.

#31 bubba on 07.02.12 at 5:57 pm

The pain train is pulling into Van. Numero Uno!

#32 Grim Reaper/Crypt speculator on 07.02.12 at 5:59 pm

Fiirsssstttt !

That Sherry Cooper is HOT !

#33 vancouverite on 07.02.12 at 6:02 pm

Yup, I think these guys buying the Cambie+ units are going to get their ass kicked.

#34 House Horny Housewife on 07.02.12 at 6:05 pm

Garth,

This is something that has been waiting in the wings for some time now so why the surprise ?

Those Vancouver digs were not really worth what people were paying for them so of course they were bound to come back down at some point.

Anything propped up by fashion, hearsay and speculation but which has no real value is bound to come crashing down at some point. I mean, why would anyone pay $500,000.00 for a small box that is sandwiched between other boxes ? Wouldn’t make any sense in any other century except ours and anyone with half a brain can see that what they are paying for is hype and fashion.

And banks requiring 20% down with a 20 – 25 year mortgage … well that’s just … normal ! The 5% down with a 40 year mortgage was the abnormal so it is only natural to come back down to earth on this one as well.

Just as well if you ask me.

HHHW

#35 Joe the Realtor on 07.02.12 at 6:05 pm

F has no clue but he is going to distory the economy. You blog dogs don’t get it as RE is the only industry we have left . If the housing market goes down so does Canada. You say we are in a RE bubble?? so what if we are? as everyone knew that four years ago. For the first time in my life I knew what it was like to feed off the taxpayer but now that cash cow is gone . You will enjoy a housing crash blog dogs but the economy will suffer. In a Panic realtor guy ……Go bang yourself.

#36 Rex_b99 on 07.02.12 at 6:06 pm

Yet, they still line up to buy.
Those that bought houses they could not afford, who simply wanted to live beyond their means will shortly have an appointment with reality.
The same applies to a country that has a bar tab of 15 trillion dollars and continues to spend 1.5 trillion dollars they don’t have every year. What applies to individuals also applies to countries. You simply cannot live beyond your means in the long run.

#37 lotuslander on 07.02.12 at 6:07 pm

It’s been a year since I was forced to move into the crawlspace under the porch. Incredibly, the same “for sale” signs I wrote about are still acting as Wind Vanes for me. A wind from the west means good weather, from the east means a storm is coming.

I talk to so many people on the West Side of Vancouver that still believe that prices are still going up in the long run and that this is all just a small “flat period”. One fellow I talk to frequently at the thrift store has 8 mortgages and doesn’t even read the internet, let alone this blog. He was completely unaware of the changes in lending policies and told me everything was safe because of a “thing called the CMHC … had I heard of it?”. A great many people I talk to are so selective in their beliefs, following their media brainwashed programming right over the edge of the abyss.

#38 Joe The Pilot on 07.02.12 at 6:11 pm

Excellent post Garth. Reading your blog has become part of my daily routine now. Keep up the good work!

#39 Silver on 07.02.12 at 6:14 pm

Nicely said Garth…
couldn’t have said it better… been telling friends to watch out, and look at historic means for value.
3 years is not a mean average to me.. 10 maybe… I used 32 years for mine…

They are all so trained to seek quarterly return values and can’t crunch anything past that 3 month number…

now wait for the property tax thing to hit
the wall… as the values wither and growth expectations don’t… happen…

the welfare is going to go away, away…he ha!
its time to pay boys…
….And I’m the commie among my friends…,
not like the group of welfare commies at city hall… no a real commie, I support myself and share my worth, my extra… by choice.
This so makes me want to go get some ice cream…
I have a lot of “wise” people who are going to get slaughtered by this… around me… heloced to hell… 2,3,+ properties, new kids, temp jobs (Film), nice new cars… and no cash period…
you get what you ask for… but basic math and history wins every time.
Silver

#40 woper_holic on 07.02.12 at 6:14 pm

Wow, even more morons out there investing half a million to live in 550 SQFT in Swampcouver…I give up.

#41 Renters Revenge on 07.02.12 at 6:17 pm

We are at the point where the first wiffs of smoke are evident, mostly to those with a keen sense of smell. It won’t be long and the whole audience will realize there is a wee bit of a problem and start heading for the exits. Don’t get trampled!

#42 obert on 07.02.12 at 6:18 pm

The … Queen is naked.

#43 wes coast on 07.02.12 at 6:21 pm

You know, during the days when bidding wars happened I can see why people could get swept up into these stupid line ups – the fear of a dwindling supply. But, what’s the excuse for those idiots today? Market flooded with inventory yet you line up for a floor plan that won’t be built until the earth does another 4 laps around the sun? It’s amazing just how important stupidity is in some people’s lives. They’d be lost without it. Keep it going folks. More supply = better price for my kids when they’re old enough to buy.

#44 Dad on 07.02.12 at 6:26 pm

What is wrong with Canadians (especially the men)?

You’ve been born into the greatest period of history to be a man. You don’t have to die for your country, work yourself to death for children/cupcake, or be forced to commit to a single woman!

There is no place in this country that you could not live a healthy, long, fun bachelor life for 65,000. Sure your apartment will be a rental, your Toyota will be from 2002, your suit will be from Tip-Top, and your hotel will be a couple blocks from the Las Vegas Strip/Waikiki beach, but who cares!?!

Women already know that the old obligations are over and done with, and they are celebrating it, why aren’t you??? To work yourself to death 60 hours a week to cover a mortgage/minivan/college fund? Madness!

#45 Clarify please on 07.02.12 at 6:30 pm

“overvalued by about half”?

Does this mean revaluation to 50% (half ) of the current price or 67%?

Wait and see. — Garth

#46 House on 07.02.12 at 6:30 pm

Don’t worry the banks are in great shape. Right Garth.

No bank will fail or even stumble. — Garth

#47 GrimWeeper on 07.02.12 at 6:32 pm

And for more bad news:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/29/bankrupt-seniors-canada_n_1637057.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business

#48 thinker on 07.02.12 at 6:39 pm

The line to get in is huge Garth, these new rules are very condo promo. We are still at very high prices, even after your points. The new rules with these 5% down gimmicks is honestly, just getting started. After the rules change, the condo market could see another push higher. Wait for it…INTEREST ONLY loans are here, at low rates – Good jobs and modern finance pushing more money with developers looking for 5% + F giving CMHC blessing. Prices could go up 20% from here.

#49 Tim on 07.02.12 at 6:45 pm

Who would want to live in a place smaller than 600 square feet? Maybe if you are from Tokyo. I wouldn’t pay a quarter of the price for something that small, as I would never live in a place less than 600 square feet. These people don’t know what they are doing. Even if it doesn’t tank, they’ll get tired of living in a tiny box awful fast.

#50 ken s on 07.02.12 at 6:46 pm

The entire human knowledge base is available on the
internet or 1-2 steps beyond (excluding artificially restricted access) -A few pages are missing, but no one knows Which pages

If anyone has unanswered questions, there are Only 2
possibilities:

1) They are Not asking the right Questions.
2) They are looking in the wrong places

WHY does Anyone assume that Japan Does Not, or
will Not soon have a Nuclear weapon (and delivery
system) ?
–Because “The-Japanese-Government-Said-So” ??
—-There are many, many kilos of weapons grade plutonium —“Missing/Unaccounted for” by Japan

It is technically and logistically possible/probable, that the above inference is correct. And it will Still be correct tomorrow and next year. If it IS correct, Japan would never have to use the weapon to Reverse their current
‘collapse.’

Never misjudge a nation threatened with extinction: (‘the RAF vs the Luftwaffe’). Even ethical distinctions support their efforts. (similar to Israel re nuclear weapons vs ‘history’: ie WWII) I am not expressing a personal bias or lack of: This is the political Reality.

This will be called a Black Swan of course. If that doesnt
work there is always Whitewash. The invention of Whitewash predates the invention of the black swan.
Both are the result of cynical Mediterranean philosophers the morning after one of those god/godess/godless feasts of something or other, and previous to a summoning before the senate or its
ancilliaries with a list of WTF queries. Plus q’il change,
or ‘What else is new……’
———————————————————————-
“Fukushima Woman: Many are aborting their babies… It’s really happening — I know many women who were visibly pregnant then suddenly weren’t”

http://enenews.com/fukushima-woman-many-aborting-babies-really-happening-many-women-visibly-pregnant-suddenly-werent-video KEN S. IN LA-LA
CHEERS :-)

#51 Tim on 07.02.12 at 6:51 pm

Vancouver is becoming lego land. It used to be just downtown, but now it is spreading like a cancer. These ugly, characterless, glass towers. All under the bullshit guise of “eco-density.” They block the light, they block mountain views, they look ugly, and many people complain about the noise because many are so close to gether. What a joke, we don’t need hi rises to increase density. We do need to change the way we develop, but there are many other options. Many dense cities have row houses and duplexes. Most parts of Montreal and Paris are like this and their cities are far more attractive than Vancouver. Sam Sullivan the weasel sold us out. He was in the developers back pocket and now Gregor Robertson is doing the same thing. This eco-density is a load of crap. Thanks to the gullible politicians, the character of this city is changing drastically, to a characterless city and the developers are making out like bandits.

#52 taking stock on 07.02.12 at 6:54 pm

I wonder how many “yet to be built ” condo mortgages have been insured by CMHC? Thank goodness CMHC only insures principle residents.

CMHC may have to become Central Rental Housing Corporation!

#53 taking stock on 07.02.12 at 6:55 pm

Principle Residence not Residents! Sorry

#54 Superman on 07.02.12 at 6:59 pm

Sales plunged in June. Everybody ready again:

RICHMOND
– 2009 = 204
– 2010 = 139
– 2011 = 158
– 2012 = 73 (as of June 28)

VANCOUVER WEST
– 2009 = 200
– 2010 = 147
– 2011 = 213
– 2012 = 99 (as of Jun 28)

VANCOVUER EAST
– 2009 = 238
– 2010 = 145
– 2011 = 180
– 2012 = 107 (as of Jun 29)

Sales in Richmond and Vancouver West collapsed more than 50%. And we aren’t just talking about MOM… these are the lowest sales in over 17 years at least, possibly longer.

NO ONE would have ever expected sales this poor for June… not this sooner… not even you, Garth. Let’s face it folks, this is even worse than bears predicted… this is going to be a true crash in every sense of the word. We are going to see a meltdown of real estate similiar to that of the US states that bulls have been saying we are nothing like for years now. It’s too late to get out of the market now. Remember, these sales (reported for June), were likely for properties which were sold in April/May depending on the closing date. So the worst is probably yet to come, since things definitely did not rebound in June.

#55 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.02.12 at 7:03 pm

These Cambie+ condos will never even be built. The sheeple will walk away from their deposits when the value drops 30%+.

#56 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.02.12 at 7:05 pm

What is the over/under on the number of times the word “balanced” is used in the RE Board’s press release?

#57 ken s on 07.02.12 at 7:26 pm

BTW: Happy Canada Day, you beaver chips.
Snap one for me. This is a great country. But it is
a good country also. We like it that way.
—-Cheers—– KEN S IN LA-LA

#58 Loan money to anyone on 07.02.12 at 7:36 pm

I agree with Moody’s: F hasn’t done enough to reduce mortgage credit and stop the growth of the housing bubble. Keep in mind that a 25 year amortization maximum for a mortgage was the standard for decades and we are only getting back to that level now.

In the meantime, we have record low interest rates and will like have them for a few years at least. Tougher credit rules are needed to deal with them.

#59 DDCorkum on 07.02.12 at 7:38 pm

#101 a prairie dawg (from 1 Jul 12)

———–

Oops, you got me there. I didn’t catch on to the reference in the url. Completely misread your first post. Sorry.

#60 Pete on 07.02.12 at 7:39 pm

I wish people would realize that governments don’t make mistakes. This housing bubble and its ultimate outcome was all planed a long time ago. Like an earlier commenter said, the housing market is the only ‘industry’ we have left.
Welcome to the post-industrial western world. The recent policy changes by ‘F’ are just another move in the ‘great game’, and we are their pawns.

#61 Dan on 07.02.12 at 7:45 pm

taking stock on 07.02.12 at 6:54 pm
I wonder how many “yet to be built ” condo mortgages have been insured by CMHC? Thank goodness CMHC only insures principle residents.

C.M.H.C. Has insured 1000’s of non owner occupied home mortgages whether they know it or choose to look the other way lair loans liar on whose living there.The buyer signs a declaration they will be living there and then rents it out!

#62 Mackie on 07.02.12 at 7:53 pm

I missed yesterday’s discussion involving teachers. Let me say this, if education was private rather than public, these blowhards would be making half of what they make now and their benefits package would not be near as good as it is now.
And for the teacher who said you should have become one: I agree, I should have become one. I kick myself every day for not choosing the easy life. But that does not mean I want to fund your extravagant lifestyle through my taxes.
If you worked for a private company that chose to pay you unrealistic salaries with ridiculous benefits for a few months of work, I would say good on ya. But it’s taxpayers not a private company picking up the tab and it’s time it stopped.

#63 Mr. Anderson on 07.02.12 at 7:54 pm

#13 CrowdedElevatorfartz

Looks like a Toyota RAV 4 to me…perhaps you were distracted.

#64 harry palms - sorry on 07.02.12 at 7:56 pm

you seem nice.

you aren’t an idiot.

apologies…i was tweaked.

:)

#65 peter on 07.02.12 at 7:57 pm

I respect anyone who can put a date on a decline. For the last 10 years I have been a mortgage broker. For the last 5 years I have been expected a significant decline in real estate prices in Canada. I’ve been wildly wrong along with Garth. Any typical measurement indicates over valuation. Debt to Income Ratio’s, Rent vs. Own ratios, Mean reversion etc. etc..but prices keep going higher. I live on the west coast and have personally experienced the Asian buying impact. Its real but if this influence deflates, or even slows, watch out below. Chinese buyers tell me they want a safe place in case things go badly in China. They are the drivers of our market and they are in the millions. Its a new global age but I wouldn’t invest a dollar in Vancouver real estate today.

#66 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.02.12 at 8:02 pm


“When the facts emerge, expect chaos at the exits.” — Precisely what TPTB want — chaos — because not only do they profit significantly from chaos, they also realize that when sheeple react to situations they can do nothing about, they are not in control of their emotions, flying off the handle at the first sign of trouble instead of using rational, or critical thinking.

This has been in the works for years now, yet the more clearly it is demonstrated, the muddier sheeples’ thinking becomes. Out of chaos, order (the BdBs, NWO, TPTB etc.)

“The bankers know it. F knows this. The sheeple have no idea what’s coming. You can just imagine the consequences. Bankers can.” — Ah yes, the downturn with RE leading the way, dragging a lot of other sectors with it. Party’s over and it’s dawn now. Great time while it lasted!

Is that a young Robert Plant about to throw another TV set out of Led Zeppelin’s hotel rooms in the 1970s? Just asking!
*
“HEMA” is a Dutch department store. The first store opened on 4th November, 1926, in Amsterdam. Now there are 150 stores all over Holland.

Take a look at HEMA’s product page. Don’t try to order anything (it’s in Dutch anyway), but just wait a couple of seconds and watch what happens. Don’t click on any of the items in the picture, just wait and see what happens.

This company has a sense of humor and a great computer programmer (sound up). Discombobulated Bulls Balls
*
#50 ken s — Good post. Forgot 3) The m$m was ordered to cover it up, which they have done.

Stunningly ordinary day today. Hell, it’s April temps. The feds. even screwed us outta the sunshine tax!
*
TPP The Trans Pacific Partnership is not all it’s cracked up to be. Crushing unions and trashing pension plans (public and private) are two parts, and Finacial Coup in EZone; EZone Jobless Rates Interesting coordination with Garth’s latest column, and further to the preceding; JPM’s net income 77% of it comes from . . .; Egypt (Mursi) “What?!? You can’t do that! That money is supposed to go to the billionaire bankers! Criminy; the guy gets elected President and all of a sudden he thinks he can do whatever he wants!” — Official White Horse Souse” wrh.com.
*
5:01 clip Iran prepares to close SoH; Mega Cities Part of Agenda 21’s (UN’s one world govt.) underway; The Toilet has been flushed (again); Black Boxes George Orwell would is laughing his head off; CERN Brainwashed BS Ogd particle found, but gDo wasn’t in it. This from the same scientists who kept blabbing on about GW.

#67 eagle eyes on 07.02.12 at 8:05 pm

This may be an indicator – realtors are finding they are not being paid by the developers for pre-sales. Generally, they get paid a portion of the commission upon writing a contract but now it doesn’t seem to be the case. What does this say? That they don’t have confidence it will be built?

#68 dd on 07.02.12 at 8:05 pm

The us is slowing down big time

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8610QT20120702?irpc=932

#69 Good to be out on 07.02.12 at 8:11 pm

#33vancouverite

“Yup, I think these guys buying the Cambie+ units are going to get their ass kicked.”

___________________________________________

Theoretically you are right, though at only 600 sf per unit there really isn’t room enough for someone to kick their asses.

#70 Mean Gene on 07.02.12 at 8:12 pm

Easy come, easy go.

#71 woper_holic on 07.02.12 at 8:14 pm

@ #62Mackie

—————————————————————–

Amen to that. That goes for cops, firefighters and a crapload of other public sector dogf^&kers, all bankrupting this country and constantly bellyaching about their “tough” jobs.

Let’s bury this useless topic. — Garth

#72 CoreyMc on 07.02.12 at 8:14 pm

#35 Joe the Realtor

F has no clue but he is going to distory the economy. You blog dogs don’t get it as RE is the only industry we have left . If the housing market goes down so does Canada. You say we are in a RE bubble?? so what if we are? as everyone knew that four years ago. For the first time in my life I knew what it was like to feed off the taxpayer but now that cash cow is gone . You will enjoy a housing crash blog dogs but the economy will suffer. In a Panic realtor guy ……Go bang yourself.

—————————————————————–

You just don’t get it? It shouldn’t have gone on this far! It’s absurd to stimulate the housing market this much without having any consequences. Now the harder the fall. If you don’t like it maybe you should get out of the housing industry, oh yea you might not have a choice. And yes Panic guy is a knob, just skip his post:)

#73 jacky on 07.02.12 at 8:20 pm

Hi Garth:
Could you please comment on this article?
Thanks.
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/07/canadians-deserve-more-answers.html

What I would expect from the lending industry. Where are the editorials decrying brokers who promote 100 per cent financing, or banks who hand out free down payments? The gnarls of outrage are too self-serving to be credible. — Garth

#74 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.02.12 at 8:20 pm

@#63 Mr Anderson
No No Im SURE its a chevy! Perhaps you’re the one distracted ? But what are you looking at?

#75 wes coast on 07.02.12 at 8:25 pm

#35. What you fail to realize is that the reason RE is all we have left is because its become such a quick cash cow it crowds out real investment.

Look to Germany. No housing bubble. No minimum wage. Strong manufacturing and engineering. We need to get back to our roots of being creators of innovative tangible products – not innovative financial ones so that everyong can own a home

#76 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 07.02.12 at 8:26 pm

Actually…..RE: that T.O. realtor in the picture above?….those shorts were “photo-shopped” on.

aaahh to be 786 again……

#77 OlderbutWiser on 07.02.12 at 8:29 pm

GrimWeeper – thanks for sharing the article on bankrupt seniors.

Have to say that it truely disheartens me to read the fate of these seniors. The future is only going to get worse as we reconcile ourselves to the loss of DBP plans, a housing crash, and ZIRP. Everyone over the age of 21 needs to educate themselves on investing (not trading or speculating) and planning for the future.

I have two siblings who will be facing exactly what the seniors in that article will be facing – a retirement filled with no hope, hunger and desperation- unless of course I take them in.

#78 woper_holic on 07.02.12 at 8:32 pm

@ #62Mackie

—————————————————————–

Amen to that. That goes for cops, firefighters and a crapload of other public sector dogf^&kers, all bankrupting this country and constantly bellyaching about their “tough” jobs.

Let’s bury this useless topic. — Garth
—————————————————————–

Consider it buried :) It is really not the place to discuss it but I hardly consider it a “useless” topic with a country fast approaching $600 billion in federal debt with billions more in provincial and municipal debt while being tapped dry by the public sector and their insane pensions.

:D

#79 Deb on 07.02.12 at 8:34 pm

A friend once told me that a very strong stomach is required to watch the complete production process of two things as they are actually being made: one is sausage, and the other is legislation.
A third item may now be added to the list, and that is making the decision to buy a home in today’s market, and the awful effects that this decision will have in less than one year’s time.

#80 Pr on 07.02.12 at 8:35 pm

Now, make sure only people with some of their owned money, can buy a house. Lets have 10% CASH DOWN MINIMUM.

#81 Victor on 07.02.12 at 8:35 pm

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/dangers-using-home-retirement-nest-egg-151324320.html

Demographics will make home sales harder

Although many Canadians have done well in the recent past selling real estate, the strategy is only going to get dicier in the coming years because of shifting demographics.

When Baby Boomers are ready to sell, there may not be enough qualified buyers to purchase their homes, explains Assante Capital Management Ltd. senior financial planner Adrian Spitters.

The biggest group of potential buyers will be the Boomers’ own kids, a group known as the Echo Boomers or the Millennial Generation. They’re smaller in number than the boomers themselves, and many have stretched their resources to qualify for their first home using minimum down payments at historically low interest rates.

“They are now tapped out,” Spitters says. “They will simply not have built up enough equity to even consider moving up when the Boomers are ready to downsize.

“When you have a potential mass wave of sellers trying to downsize their homes to shore up their retirement portfolio at a time when house sales are slowing and there are not enough buyers willing to or able to absorb the inventory of homes for sale, house sales will stagnate and prices will suffer.

===========================

1) Flaherty’s new mortgage rules
2) OFSI’s new banking regulations
3) Inevitable rise in higher rates
4) Boomer retirement demographic time-bomb
5) Over-leveraged property virgins

This will not end well.

#82 Just Park It on 07.02.12 at 8:35 pm

Garth, very insightful – I take your blog with a grain of salt. One man’s opinion is just that, I have been blogging about housing since 2005. I started with Ben Jones housing forum in the States. Yep, I considered selling back then, thinking Canada would surely be 2 steps behind them in the market meltdown. If I had reacted, that would have been 7 years of renting in the same town I live currently, the little equity I had would have afforded me in investment gain a trip to Disney during the off seaon – not a smart call.

We bought our very first home 10 years ago, and have never looked back. We have a few years remaining on our mortgage and look forward to purchasing my first toy (27ft. sailboat) after celebrating our mortgage burning act.

I actually look forward to a slowdown as for years I have seen pristine farmland get bulldozed into thousands of identical rooftops. My only fear is this can really swing the other way and we all will pay the price of years of greed and mismangement.

So, I will sign off with a very wise quote – be careful for what you wish for – it may come true!

You’re here. Enough said. — Garth

#83 TaxHaven on 07.02.12 at 8:40 pm

@#51 Tim,

And just wait until the inhabitants of those glass towers find that they’re going to be paying fees, taxes and public-space electric/water costs FOREVER. Which will make their “units” even more unsellable.

That’s what comes from buying a (overpriced) concrete-box-in-the-sky and calling it a “home”.

And where will they put their lawnmowers? Or second cars? Or woodstoves?

#84 P & T S on 07.02.12 at 8:54 pm

Both Canada and Australia see RE as a MAJOR contributor to National GDP. Along with this, there are the numerous “transaction fees” (such as Stamp Duty) that provide a significant cashflow into Municipal coffers, as long as the “happy turnover train” continues along the track.

Here (Oz) and in Canada there is a growing suspicion that the train either has, or is about to, derail, and one of the casualties will be Municipal revenue, so Municipal spending will have to be cut. ( according to the changes in revenue).

Australia is “Bureaucracy Heaven” so in principle there’s a lot of fat that can be initially trimmed without affecting essential service provision, but the “ex employed” then qualify for unemployment benefits, that are paid at a Federal level, so there will be “further consequences” of increasing unemployment (at a time when the current Government is keen to restore the Federal Budget to some form of surplus).

A case of “One Man’s Savings becoming Another Man’s Costs”. However loking on the bright side, the Bureau of Statistics considers that persons working ONE HOUR ia any two weeks are “in employment”, so the “Official” employment figures should not be too badly affected (Must keep the Ratings Agencies happy – and keep our “AAA” Rating at all costs . . . .)

#85 Gunboat Denier on 07.02.12 at 8:54 pm

53/53 Taking stock – princiPAL residence.

#86 Toronto_CA on 07.02.12 at 8:55 pm

From #80 Victor’s posted link on Boomers selling houses to retire on http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/dangers-using-home-retirement-nest-egg-151324320.html:

“For younger people looking to get into the market, Spitters suggests being patient and building up as much of a down payment as possible by maxing out tax-free savings accounts.”

Really? TFSAs are going to give you as much down payment as possible because it saves you..what?

Let’s look at this…you want your house downpayment to be liquid and safe, so likely in a high yield (lol) savings account that pays about 1%.

$5000 is the most you can put into a TFSA/year, so $5000 x 1% = $50 interest. Tax on that would be about $15 at 30% rate. So…the TFSA maxed out may save you $15 x 4 years room now x 2 people or…$160. Woo! Good thing SF houses cost $580k in the GTA on average. That $160 will sure save my bacon.

Young people should use their TFSAs for retirment funds and buy mostly equities via low MER ETFs at a discount brokerage! Not ING high yield savings accounts!!! Leave those taxable and use the TFSA for something with real growth potential. Ugh.

I hate financial advisors in the press so much! Sorry for the rant.

#87 Mark W on 07.02.12 at 8:59 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12123970&PidKey=391094938

Ham & Champagne at $888.76 per square foot in Vancouver.

#88 sid on 07.02.12 at 9:07 pm

What do you think will happen to markets like Hamilton where prices are well below the average and many multi units have a cap rate well over 8%?

First, give us examples of units with that payout. — Garth

#89 ken s on 07.02.12 at 9:16 pm

NOSTRA: Thx for the link to the dept store: That was a
scream! But 2 problems:

Where do you find programmers who can think beyond
the rigid brick and mortar static GUI border/ Frame/box?? Do you take them on a 3 nite crawl thru the underside of Amsterdam to loosen up their prepubescent preconceptions??
Do you slip some LSD into their cherry coke?? (see Steve
Jobs) Do you hook em up with a Crazy Nerdy Lady??
—Its uh, a ‘People Problem’.
Its The Obliquities, the Randomness, the Uncertainty
which scares the S— out of the accountants, the administrators, the biz 101 types. For others, this
is the spice: the supreme exotic elixir of cerebal breakout. Frankly I recommend the Crazy Lady
solution. She is even more bored than you are.
Make sure your health card is current. You will be
ecstatic and creatively-destructive compatible. Thx-
More. Ken S

#90 Keeping the Faith on 07.02.12 at 9:20 pm

Stevenson, Devils Advocate, BPOE:

DELETED

#91 Keeping the Faith on 07.02.12 at 9:28 pm

#35 Joe the SCUMBAG

DELETED

#92 Peter Goesinya on 07.02.12 at 9:30 pm

@ #14 Devore

Wow, Calgary sends food to BC and BC tells albertans to F off in Shuswap.

#93 Gunboat Denier on 07.02.12 at 9:33 pm

Re 84 should be 52/53. Ha!

#94 AprilNewwest on 07.02.12 at 9:35 pm

My young daughter said she was almost talked into buying timeshares at Whistler this weekend. I told her it was a bad idea. Was I right?

Disown her. — Garth

#95 ken s on 07.02.12 at 9:36 pm

Nostra: +1 more:

‘Off-the-Wall’ is not an affliction, It is a METHOD :-)
-k

#96 James on 07.02.12 at 9:36 pm

Garth, do you know where we can find F’s transcript from Friday? I’d be interested to read that. Thanks

#97 Grooby. on 07.02.12 at 9:37 pm

One last comment on ‘teachers salaries’. I have no idea where people get their numbers from.

http://education.alberta.ca/admin/workforce/faq/teachers/teachersalaries.aspx

So, after 10 years of teaching and 6 years of education, you earn 100k, in Alberta, the highest paid place in Canada?
That’s terrible. In the private sector, with less years education, a professional gets past that (and continues to increase) MUCH quicker, again especially in Alberta.

Also, the teachers I know work much longer hours than I do in the private sector. Crunch the numbers, and my wife makes less than 20/hour (including pension).

Some of you commenters need to get off your high-horse and do some research. Teaching is NOT a fluffy job, with classrooms in excess of 30 kids, some with disabilities, and no coffee/pee/lunch breaks to speak of (someone has to watch the kiddies in the playground).
Also, private sector teachers earn MORE than public sector; at least, in Alberta.

There are problems with the Teachers Union, like how difficult it is to let incompetent teachers go, but being overpaid is not one of them. if you feel that way, please do the rest of the city a favour home-school your children.

#98 Peterfromcalgary on 07.02.12 at 9:38 pm

I am worried that oil prices are about to crash. The world is remarkably peaceful and it is instability in oil producing countries that has held up the price for the last decade or so.

#99 blase on 07.02.12 at 9:39 pm

Hey Garth,

I’d say a post on Kelowna would be very timely right now. It would be interesting to hear the factors at play on that one. Love the idea of focusing on one city, and hearing from the locals.

#100 Mr. Anderson on 07.02.12 at 9:49 pm

# 73 CrowdedElevatorfartz

Okay, with the optical superiority that you seem to possess can you help me out by identifying the denim brand pictured? Not for myself rest assured.

#101 JOHN on 07.02.12 at 9:54 pm

Joe the realtor #35

You practically admit the housing bubble in Canada is a ponzi scheme. Lucky for you most Canadians are financially illiterate who couldn’t see the obvious housing bubble. I also take it that the cash cow is CHMC? Goes to show you realtors are very aware of the housing bubble in Canada . Realtors make me sick.

#102 Jon on 07.02.12 at 9:55 pm

Here is what 1.239 Million gets you near Toronto.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12052994&PidKey=826551203

Wake me when its over…

#103 Serbia - Vancouver Lady on 07.02.12 at 10:00 pm

CHAOS – The best Reality TV show ever !

#104 coastal on 07.02.12 at 10:00 pm

“It’s all just beginning. The odds of us having a soft landing, as I detailed last week, are fading daily.”

This “soft landing” talk is getting nauseating, never in the history of our generation has there been a soft landing in a real estate boom. It’s over, get over it.

#105 Fabrega on 07.02.12 at 10:01 pm

Garth,
From your previous post you said: “you can afford to stuff $1,200 a month into your TFSAs”

Question: That will do for 4 months before reaching the allowed measly limit of 5,000 per year. What is your point?

A couple without TFSAs can contribute $40,000. — Garth

#106 LuckyRenter on 07.02.12 at 10:03 pm

Take a look this house located at 9 Maple Ave S Mississauga, OntarioPort Credit, Mississauga.
It was listed for 929,000

Link:http://www.zoocasa.com/en/real_estate/1745499-9-Maple-Ave-S-Mississauga-Ontario

New Price is 850,000

Link:http://www.zoocasa.com/en/real_estate/1765932-9-Maple-Ave-S-Mississauga-Ontario-L5H2R5

How about this one.It was Listed for 664,000

Link:http://www.zoocasa.com/en/real_estate/1747391-947-Queen-St-W-Mississauga-Ontario

New reduced price is 649,000

Link:http://www.zoocasa.com/en/real_estate/1698650-947-QUEEN-ST-W-MISSISSAUGA-Ontario

#107 Toxicosis on 07.02.12 at 10:05 pm

Of course Garth the banks will do just fine. Any money they need to be bailed out will be stolen from the taxpayer via government sponsored legal extortion (tax) and (money printing) to cover their overzealous HELOC’s especially and mortgage’s the lesser of the two. Taxpayer theft, as has happened in the U.S., Greece, Italy, Spain, UK, Ireland, Portugal, and most of the eurozone will continue with reckless abandon no matter how much fraud or derivatives the GLOBAL banking system has involved itself with. Not so long ago, about a month approx. you stated in all of your glorious certainty the eurozone would work itself out, wrong again!! Eventually yes as the worm and economy turns even our banks will fail, since debt and borrowing are what banks live for, but the ability to restart this debt based global monetary system just won’t happen again. Yes Garth in some ways this time is different. Your perspective is noted, and yes you will be wrong. On housing you’ll be right, on banking you’ll be dead wrong. Don’t worry Garth after Europe collapses the U.S. and Canada are next. But don’t pay attention Garth, I love the circus based analysis you provide, and yes I have a laugh and mirthful chuckle at your expense.

I can imagine. You sound like a riot. — Garth

#108 Ret on 07.02.12 at 10:07 pm

#61 Dan- Yes, CMHC is Canada’s Freddie and Fanny IMHO.

C.M.H.C. has backstopped many of the mortgages for slumlords and their clapped out properties. That should make you feel all warm and fuzzy as a taxpayer.

Slumlords around McMaster U., who I personally know don’t make $50,000 a year, “own” 3-4 student rental homes and must be out for at least $400,000. If they claim rental incomes on their CMHC mortgage applications, they qualify to buy more properties because they have higher incomes. Verification of rents? Not a chance.

CMHC has been played for years and they choose to look the other way. Needless to say, slumlords don’t declare those rents as income to the C.R.A.

Why does the government give out Canada Student loans for thousands of dollars to tens of thousands of students and not ask the student how much, and to whom they will be paying their rent money to?

#109 Sebee on 07.02.12 at 10:13 pm

I was driving and saw ad for California Condos.

Location? Park Lawn and Lakeshore – next to the Christie cookie factory. Looks like California to me.
Say beeee condo sheep and enjoy California living in December at Park Lawn.

#110 mid-Ontario on 07.02.12 at 10:17 pm

Garth
Your “slow melt” prediction of a downturn in RE from a few months back may turn out to be conservative in its speed and extent of downturn. The speed of the drop in RE will be dictated by the coverage in the media. I expect the media will keep it rosy as long as possible. From the numbers presented tonight though, it seems that we are going down.

I, for one, do not wish swift justice on any unsuspecting newbie.

If a drop in RE nationwide is swift and nasty, we are all in far worse shape as a nation.

I expect that by Christmas we will know where we are going and how hard the ride will be.

This is supposed to be the good times leading up to the US election. The exact opposite is true. Things are pretty tough in Europe (crooked bankers and the great ponzi) and the US is facing a huge uncertainty on many fronts with a recession quite possible.

Batten down the hatches.
Hope for a warm winter, a nice drink and soothing words from Garth.

#111 Davey Boy on 07.02.12 at 10:25 pm

I think that pic of people lining up to buy condos in Vancouver has been photo shopped cause it hasn’t quit raining here since last September.

#112 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 07.02.12 at 10:35 pm

#52 taking stock – I do not believe there are mortgages on “yet to be built” condos. Once the unit is finished and you move in, you rent from the builder for a period before ownership is transferred.

I know of a young lady who “bought” a pre-build last year (despite my warnings) and moved-in last month, bragging that her condo has already gained $40 thousand in value. Ownership does not transfer until September. Now of course she is panicking because she was relying on a 30-year amortization to afford the monthly payments and she finds herself 10 grand short on the deposit and will have to cough-up CMHC insurance too.

There must be a lot of recent buyers experiencing the same situation right now.

#113 Mr Buyer on 07.02.12 at 10:36 pm

#103 coastal on 07.02.12 at 10:00 pm
“It’s all just beginning. The odds of us having a soft landing, as I detailed last week, are fading daily.”

This “soft landing” talk is getting nauseating, never in the history of our generation has there been a soft landing in a real estate boom. It’s over, get over it.
…………………………………………………….
Two points…
Never in history has there been a soft landing upon the crash of a bubble.
A harsh tone tarnishes the message. If it is getting the message out that concerns you then I would suggest a slightly more neutral tone. If it is a desperate need for a crash that motivates you (you are not alone in that need as housing costs are clearly unreasonable across the board) I would suggest compartmentalizing that need as perception is the lynch pin of a confidence scheme and if you continue to present a harsh tone the perception of the reasonable nature of your assertion will be diminished thus infinitesimally increasing the extremely small odds of a soft landing (translation: the next to zero chance of a never before seen soft landing could increase by 0.0000000003278% if you continue to assert the unlikelihood in a perceived hostile manner)

#114 blase on 07.02.12 at 10:40 pm

As a point of comparison to how Vancouver and Toronto are doing the condo thing wrong.

I live in a city with a similar size population to Vancouver, but in Korea.

Our apartment is in the best neighborhood in the city, within walking distance to several parks that offer running and biking tracks, water fountain play areas for the kids, playground structures imported from Sweden, a symphony hall with a symphony (and affordable tickets), a subway line, an indoor skating rink and wave pool, etc. etc. all within 5-10 min. walking distance to our apartment; you do not need to own a car here, period (but most people do).

Our apartment, in the best neighborhood in the city, is on the small size at 1000 sq. feet. We have 3 bedrooms (2 are small), a good sized galley-kitchen, and a veranda (inside balcony).

To buy this place would cost us less than $200,000. We rent for $700 a month.

Our entire “condo fees” is $50 for elevator (our building has 15 storeys and 6 elevators. An elevator has an apartment on each side of it for 15 storeys, so 30 apartments share an elevator). Plus we pay $100 more which covers having 24 hour security guard, and all maintenance. This fee will never substantial go up (our building is 20 years old). Our building, like most Korean apartments, is a cement/concrete, parking above and below ground, built to last. No such thing as falling glass.

Anyway, Van or TO could have easily replicated what was done over here or in China or Hong Kong, but instead, the bureaucrats went for the fast buck and the shiny glass windows. Those losers standing in line are paying $750/sq foot after fees for something that would cost $65/sq foot in Korea, but here transit costs $1 for a full trip, with better weather, with jobs. I’m not saying Korea is better, it isn’t, but Van or TO are living in a fantasy world if they think the second world is that much worse than paying 11x more for housing is a good idea.

Did I mention the cops don’t carry guns or tasers here, and that there is zero drug use? Picture the 1950s but with new BMWs and Kias everywhere, coffee shops on every corner, bullet trains to Seoul in 40 minutes, and no feminism, but men and women without a chip on their shoulders.

Oh, and I can see a doctor (and that includes a specialist in anything) without an appointment, just walk in and it costs me $3. That’s not a typo.

As I’ve said before, the big cities of Canada are in for a very harsh awakening.

#115 coastal on 07.02.12 at 10:45 pm

“What I would expect from the lending industry. Where are the editorials decrying brokers who promote 100 per cent financing, or banks who hand out free down payments? The gnarls of outrage are too self-serving to be credible. — Garth”

Agreed, these scumbags don’t get that F gave them a living for as long as the boom was happening and had a time limit. Now that they get all comfy handing out cash like candy and telling everyone the party never ends, they can’t handle reality and the backlash they are getting just like stock brokers who sold them the high risk stock and is tanking. These people are disgusting to keep spewing this anti F garbage as if they actually have an ounce of power to influence to change it back. The story has been written for years and the ending is always the same as the USA….a crash. Suck it up cowboys and get back to where you came from, lotsa used cars out there to flog still.

#116 Mr Buyer on 07.02.12 at 10:46 pm

In addition to absolutely unreasonable level of housing costs the cost of living has reach completely unacceptable levels in Canada. It seems that producers and service providers are just dreaming up numbers divorced from manufacturing and operating costs and normal profit margins. It seems that thinking has changed to “how much of this borrowed money floating around out there can I gouge out of my customers.” When bubbles collapse this spirit is quickly extinguished as well. While there are still very expensive luxury items in Japan, most necessities have become quite reasonable. This will occur naturally in Canada provided price fixing is not prevalent (which most likely it is and will provide and excellent plank in a political platform in the coming elections)

#117 NAM not HAM on 07.02.12 at 10:50 pm

Garth,

Good one hahaha. But I did read carefully before the edit.

#118 Chaos on 07.02.12 at 10:54 pm

Chaos predicted chaos.

Chaos is not surprised that chaos is burbling along like a quiet spring stream waiting for the thunderstorm to arrive before unleashing it’s unbelievable sudden fury that leaves in it’s wake a rock garden where once upon a time tulips bloomed.

Chaos predicts that the chaos will continue on a personal level for the next 6 years aided by evermore potent personal technology and the unusual will in the end prevail.

Chaos also predicts that more famous people will pass on over the next 12 years and businesses will continue to fail in the face of transformation.

Chaos reminds others that there is opportunity in chaos. This does not include running off of the cliff with the rest of the herd.

Chaos…out.

#119 The great American on 07.02.12 at 10:56 pm

Everyone is thinking that there is going to be a crash. Canada is safe, clean, full of jobs and continues to chug along with positive GDP. Almost every bank in the world was in crisis a few short years ago and Canadian banks survived. Yes the government made a mistake with 40 year loans but that was fixed quickly and because Canada is always slower to adopt many things you’ve been able to side step a recession and a housing market decline. Usually being late to the party is a bad thing but Canada got very lucky. The housing market will be fine your FEDERAL Reserve Bank has been slowly tightening loans up and every time they do some tightening this blog dates the end is near and everything keeps chugging along. Housing will not crash just stay stagnant and that’s all the government wants and it will get. Rates will not be going up for sometime and if they do the government can always loosen the housing restrictions so that values don’t drop dramatically. Things will not always go Canada’s way but take the time to enjoy it……

#120 Mr Buyer on 07.02.12 at 10:56 pm

I would like to finish my baloney off today with the following assertion. It seems the game plan on the part of the powers that be is to suggest we tried to implement the bubble with a soft landing welded on the end for the good of the Canadian people but unexpected events by you yourselves derailed the first ever historic soft landing. If this is the case then incompetence can easily be suggested as there has never ever been a soft landing and thus there is no reason to expect one, unless of course one is without reason, incapacitated somehow or heaven forbid hiding the truth among a host of other less than attractive possibilities. But how am I supposed to know? (Psy-Ops 101)

#121 Chaos | The Retiring Boomer™ on 07.02.12 at 10:58 pm

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#122 Inglorious Investor on 07.02.12 at 11:04 pm

Listen, friends, their is a much larger issue here than Canada’s housing market, no matter how panicked realtors may be about “the only industry we have left” (how sad if true).

The larger issue is how “we the people” are being played by the powers that be. In Canada it was F and the central bankers who largely caused this problem. First they built the regulatory pump that blew the biggest RE bubble in Canadian history; then they attempt to prick the bubble by reversing those same regulations––only after home “ownership” reached historical highs, i.e. saturation.

Now, just realize for a minute how these actions have served the banks while the bubble was being blown, and how they will serve the banks while the bubble is being deflated. While the people and the smaller players in the industry can only stand by and stare dumbfounded at the whole affair. I’m sorry, but it’s just all too convenient.

But whether caused by stupidity, accident, or superb planning, that kind of government meddling is just bad and should never have happened. What we need are FREE markets, not centrally manipulated ones. The markets should be regulated of course, but the rules should not be changed to suit special interests. When, I ask you, will we learn?

I’ve gone on record here stating that I have always suspected that the Lehman takedown in 2008 was not a lapse in judgement or the result of failure to act. The banks, their so-called regulators and the governments they supposedly answer to have far too much experience with things like contagion risk, the domino effect etc. Russia, Mexico, Argentina, Asian Tigers, LTCM, Savings & Loans, Bear Stearns, the US banking collapse, etc. etc. I still strongly suspect Lehman was the detonation that set off a controlled demolition. Better to take down an unstable building in a controlled manner, then to wait for it to collapse on its own.

Now, we have “Liborgate”, just the latest in an astonishingly long string of bank fraud and corruption that has reached pandemic proportions globally. Not only is the entire affair frightening enough all on its own, but now some are starting to ask whether the credit freeze in 2008 was also engineered (or at least intensified) in order to secure a bigger bailout. It fits with my Lehman hypothesis.

(Does anyone remember Hank Paulson in 2008 asking Congress for the privilege to take 700 billion dollars for the banks anytime, and as many times as he saw fit? Does anyone remember the markets crashing when Congress initially said “no?” Does anyone remember the bait and switch Paulson engineered? First the money was for “toxic assets” then, after they got the money it was used as a straight capital injection for the banks. Now, that’s almost ancient history, but we can dig up reams more data to show how the banks have gamed the system, and indeed the crisis itself to their advantage. Just look at Europe for heaven’s sake for some of the latest shenanigans.)

We have seen that big banks and their cartelizing central banks have the means to manipulate the price of money, which is THE key factor in determining the economy. And never question what their priorities are. In the early ’80s the US economy was sacrificed to save the dollar. Now, it is quite clear that, for governments, the banks are the number one priority. All that money being created in Europe is not for the people, it’s for the banks. The people, barring the real threat of revolution, barely register. Governments everywhere are beholden to banks. My God, if it’s not obvious to everyone by now…

So, maybe all those worried realtors, vengeful renters, wannabe home owners, and demoralized debtors on this blog should turn their attention away from Canadian bricks and mortar for just a moment to consider the larger picture. We are not at risk because Canadian home prices are too high. We are at risk because governments are not working for “we the people.”

Don’t believe it’s true in Canada? When the gov here wants “advice” on the economy, who do they ask? Have they ever asked you? F will do whatever he wants when it comes to messing with your mortgage, but ask him about monetary policy––you know, the most important weapon in any government’s arsenal and the linchpin of their sovereignty––and he’ll tell you with a straight face that it’s none of his–or your––business.

#123 MiniMe on 07.02.12 at 11:06 pm

I am reading some panic here too

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/07/canadians-deserve-more-answers.html

#124 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.02.12 at 11:09 pm

#146 Frank le skank on 07.02.12 at 8:05 pm

BMLMV

I know what your saying, but like every other job there’s good and bad workers. Some people are useless, but there’s a lot of good teachers. I think you put every teacher under the same umbrella which is not fair to the good ones. I work for a telecom company and our problem is that the useless employees are allowed to be that way due to lack of leadership.

Let’s continue to cut back wages and benefits for everyone and see how this country does.
—–
Frank, I’m not judging the importance of our public services or mean to imply that there are no good workers. The fact that they are so important is all the more reason to privatize them to bring market forces to bare.

My point is that the best way to get the best workers is when a business owner with a profit motive is overseeing operations. The principle and motivations of market forces that come to bare on a good or service once privatized become competition and profit motive and drive to gain market share. Innovation becomes second nature in this environment where bad schools with bad teachers would lose customers while innovative high quality service providers would gain.

In this system the best teachers can excel while the deadbeats get tossed out. This all happens under the direction of the owners discretion and free market choices by customers. Currently we have no market forces in education or healthcare, they are essentially monopolies with no market forces.

#125 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.02.12 at 11:13 pm

@#99 Mr Anderson
Hmmmmm, I’m usually known for my ofaculatory assaults so when you refer to my Optical Superiority? Im a tad confused.

Okay then….
Those denim shorts appear to beeeeee……

“Sergio Valente” ? Noooooo
“Calvin Klein”? Nooooo again.
” Jordash”? Nada!
“Levis’? Nyet !
“GWG’s” Not feelin the love there either….
“Butt Huggers” ! YES !

Never heard of them? Im not surprised. Its an obscure brand created by a New York Hasidic Jewish conglomerate that has the thread made in China. The cotton for the denim grown in Egypt. Buttons from Russia. Zipper from Montreal ( because who knows how zippers work better than les francophone).
And its all stitched together in Richmond BC !
How do I know all this?
BPOE is the clothing designer of numerous knock off brands that you see every day. He usually specializes in bondage clothing but after a lovers tiff I suggested he branch off into really tight denim shorts…….
I meant MALE shorts, butt he was still mad at me and……….. Voila!
Garths photo!

You like yes ?

#126 Tom from Mississauga on 07.02.12 at 11:15 pm

BMO tightened up on fraud/credit in my statement this month by putting a 7 day hold on cheques. Asked at the bank, they are getting lots of empty envelopes at the ATM of late. Starts Aug 1.

#127 John on 07.02.12 at 11:15 pm

Toxicosis wrote:

” On housing you’ll be right, on banking you’ll be dead wrong. Don’t worry Garth after Europe collapses the U.S. and Canada are next. But don’t pay attention Garth, I love the circus based analysis you provide, and yes I have a laugh and mirthful chuckle at your expense.”

(I can imagine. You sound like a riot. — Garth)
——————-

Toxicosis it’s too bad you made your post somewhat flaky, because it kills off the possibility of debate. Why? You make your ideas sound extremist, conspiratorial, and “negative”, and see some kind of transcendent value in “being right”.

There are almost no places where a wide spectrum debate happens precisely because of the flaky approach. If you’re right, you just need to quietly keep laying out the facts and stay in the debate. That way everyone is getting something…both sides are “right” in a way.

It’s very possible banks will hold out in the medium term as long as the current paradigm we’ve got has a chance of going forward. Don’t forget to consider banks like casinos in 2012. If MF Global could “unaccount” for a couple of billion and John Corsine remains a free man, banks are pretty much ensured at not having to hold the bag. That case was an excellent stress test on derivatives failure…as was the recent 2 billion ( now 9 billion) JP Morgan debacle. People are disconnected from their environment sufficiently…more than enough for banks to have a lot of “muddle power”. This is not to be underestimated.

What is undeniable fraud at an outrageous level is actually “debateable”, although you’ll never see all the facts and their logical conclusions laid out in the debate.

What is concerning is the potential “no lose” attitude of the higher level ponzi players. They had no problem in saturating Canada with huge real estate debt, even after 2008. So they’ll have no problem shaking down the place either. To them it’s a game….there are no people.

Assuming it gets closer to “unmanageability” at a systemic level, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see some sort of “false flag”…maybe internet interruption. Who
knows.

I personally hope for a drawn out “muddle through” where new options can emerge…not a “hard stop” of some kind.

#128 Felix Seto on 07.02.12 at 11:17 pm

I think I wet my pants with that pic. More importantly, I think i’m going to wet my pants when the market tanks 50% in YVR!

#129 Canadian Watchdog on 07.02.12 at 11:18 pm

And so the plot thickens in the LIBOR-Gate scandal.

From Feb ’12: Canada’s Competition Bureau is investigating some banks as LIBOR probe widens http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/canada-liborprobe-idUSL4E8DF16J20120215

And last week…

Competition Bureau chief to resign two years early:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/28/competition-bureau-chief-to-resign-two-years-early/

This is getting interesting…

#130 daystar on 07.02.12 at 11:21 pm

Excellent piece, Garth. Yeah… Vancouver.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKUU6yUsCsU&feature=related

#131 Einzatgruppen kanada on 07.02.12 at 11:23 pm

#74

Germany has the weight of Europe round its neck. The Brits won’t help. They are far too superior and busy dishing on arab & yankee butt.

#132 James on 07.02.12 at 11:31 pm

#96, even at their highest salary level (100k), a public school teacher still makes about 120k if they worked the full year. teaching, no tougher than any other job in canada

#133 Canadian Watchdog on 07.02.12 at 11:40 pm

The Red Pin changed their weekly listings report to only show weekly changes (instead of total inventory) and made sure not list the actual number for data collectors. http://www.theredpin.com/blog/canada/infographic-toronto-real-estate-july-2-2012

Another fine example of what realtorcrats will do when listings start flooding the market.

#134 Mackie on 07.02.12 at 11:45 pm

ok Garth Just let me say one last thing. Teachers are not professionals. It’s one year (6 months or so) of teachers college after they get a 3-year degree in sociology or what have you. You are not professionals and calling yourselves professionals will not change the fact. And you belong to a union, call it a federation if it makes you feel better but it is a labour union and one of the most powerful and militant of all unions in this country. And stop saying you are “doing it for the kids.” If you were doing it for the kids you would take a pay cut so the boards can buy the books etc they need. OK that’s all I want to say.

#135 Devore on 07.02.12 at 11:51 pm

#52 taking stock

I wonder how many “yet to be built ” condo mortgages have been insured by CMHC?

Zero. There’s no mortgage until there is title, and there is no title until there is a built and registered unit.

#136 thebadman on 07.02.12 at 11:54 pm

Well I havent seen any prices drop or sales in Toronto.They have tryed to slow things down and it hasnt slowed down so good luck !!!

#137 Jim on 07.02.12 at 11:57 pm

N

#138 Jim on 07.02.12 at 11:58 pm

No disagreement with your major point, garth, but just a small point. It does not follow from the fact that people are lined up for a condo development that those people are buyers, or even prospective buyers. Developers have been known to hire crowds to create buzz, as I learned from a friend who was hired for that reason.

#139 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.03.12 at 12:49 am


#88 ken s — “Do you hook em up with a Crazy Nerdy Lady?? Do you take them on a 3 nite crawl thru the underside of Amsterdam to loosen up their prepubescent preconceptions?? the Uncertainty, the Randomness, . . .” — Good summation! After three days with an EZone Amazon, a man has nothing left to give, totally spent! 5:52 clip Are these mountain gorillas, BlogDogs or Amazons in Garth’s bunker? Sound up! Plus Hard loving chimp.
*
3:14 clip BoE incl. in Libor scandal? Economic Shock from former Hedge Fund person; Silver Manipulation If CNBC says it’s true, then it must (they’re a reliable sauce, no?); The Roman Empire Not only the American Empire, others are crumbling as well; Conjob Debit cards paying utility bills; Praise the Lord and Pass the Euro Mercy! It’s been saved again, but Everyone’s leaving; NYT and Wall St. Who controls the NYT? Probably one of the BdBs; RBS Wasn’t RBS bailed out by the UK govt.? If it was, maybe that’s how they can afford to reimburse customers; Civil service layoffs in UK; Chinese Banks overtaking UK banks, and Booming China? Peak Oil BP lives to flood another day; Contraction in US manufacturing, and EZone mfg. slows in June; RealTime ObombaCare Good for a few; 5:50 clip Ode to Debt and Death.

Rent Ignore parents and stuff home buying; Build A Better Emergency Fund (esp. if a bank holiday comes on the scene in the next little while); This and That; War over QE; Berkshire furniture div. scaling back operations; Bond Market backs Obomba, but Small Firms cut hiring; US, EZone and Asian export orders all decrease; Byron Wien Terrifying; Printing Money is dumb; US RE Good deal? Chart Of The Day; Brussels TPTB are the big winners; Global abor War?
*
Rumania A useful tool for the US against Russia; Cdn. Federal Court Common sense; 1892 interview with a Rothschild “In conclusion, Baron Rothschild said that the war on capital was brutal and baneful, and that anti-Semitism was brutal and irrational.”; No Pilots Needed Shades of 9-11? 12:14 clip Lissenup! 100 great riffs on a guitar; Anger Management What are Cdns. position on this? jess — Doggerland discovered New tax haven? This is science? Scientists, high blood pressure and flatulence (right menage a trois); Confirmed by NASA The Borg exist; If Jupiter were as close as the moon, this is what it would look like.

#140 BigAl (Original) on 07.03.12 at 12:54 am

For everyone who says that the private sector does things better, I ask how? Every day I have to fight for better service, proper billing, proper workmanship, etc etc. My builder tries to get out of every repair with excuse after excuse. There is no competition if it means selling my house and going through a big hassle moving. My cable/phone/internet company all make errors in billing and dealing with customer service for hours on end on a phone is mind numbing, being passed from dept to dept and noone knows whats going on. Again, no competition because they all behave this way. The guy who installed my appliances did a lousy job and apologized because he was so tired that day. Job was finished…what could I do? He promised to come back and fix it but hasn’t after many many calls. Guess I’ll just have to shell out another wad of cash just to repair it.
So these yo-yo’s running government would be a better idea, and my taxes would go down? Give me a break. If anything, once private contracters get their grubby claws on taxpayer money, the LAST thing they want is for taxes to go down. Sure they’ll lower the pay of workers, but if you think those savings will be passed on to the taxpayer, I’ve got a condo in Kelowna to sell you too. I’ve seen this slowly happening first hand. I worked in the provincial gov’t a few years ago, and at first made my own travel arrangements and booked my own hotel rooms at cheap rates (under $100/night). Then I got a talking to, because we had a private sector contract with a travel agency. Turned out I HAD to book through the private sector contractor for a $40 booking fee, and on top of that, the lowest rate they gave, for the same hotel that I was booking at, was $149/night. If I didn’t use the travel agency we were subject to some exorbitant penalties, under this private sector contract. Suuuuure the private sector does it better. Screwing the taxpayer that is. Look at all the privatization that has already happened. Have you seen a single dime of your personal income/property taxes go down?

#141 Lookoutbelow on 07.03.12 at 12:56 am

So we are being told that the new Mortgage regulations are somewhat coordinated with countries in the G20 and since Mark Carney is also the Head of the Financial Stability Board, one would assume that these changes are for the greater good. OK, so what will happen, not necessarily the degree to which it may happen:

Bank balance sheets will be stressed due to falling real estate values. CMHC will have to make Banks whole and there will be fewer mortgages underwritten

Mortgage default rates will increase, therefore CMHC will be forced to pay out on the insurance, so premiums will have to increase for new mortgages

More and more Realtors will be forced out of the business

The Construction Industry will have to adjust to the new reality, this will surely slow down the country’s GDP

Consumer spending (70% of the economy) will be slower since people will have less money and certainly will not feel good about declining house prices

While this is going on, the country’s boomers will be entering the next phase of their lives and will probably not need those McMansions sized houses

Investor immigrants, ie those will money and “management and business skills” will slow, while the “trades skilled workers” will be in higher demand

Off shore money won’t come here for the purposes of “real estate speculation”, so prices will head even lower

I am desperately trying to find a “bullish” case for housing. Can anyone help ?

#142 Ivan on 07.03.12 at 1:06 am

If you read the link in Grooby’s post regarding justification for $100K+/year teachers you will find that a teaching year consists of between 100-160 days a year! These people work an average of 2-3.5 days a week according to these numbers!

These taxpayer sponsored part-time workers are making 6 figure salaries with a pension to boot.

Completely ridiculous especially when one considers the level of competency of High School grads.

VERY, very scary and definitely a sign of an economic/societal crash coming our way.

#143 $$$BPOE#1 on 07.03.12 at 1:07 am

Lovin those lineups. September expect more lines as BPOE keeps getting better everyday. Check out West 4th and Mcdonald. New development only 4 units left. Hurry it’s going fast.

#144 THE TITANIC on 07.03.12 at 1:13 am

Apparently F recieved my email…I asked him to get on with some changes. Better to take our medine now before too many Canadians canabalize their economic futures into total destruction. The Boomers have been living in a Matrix for too many years and programmed the kids to believe property always goes up. Fundamentals don’t matter, responsible borrowing is old school and we are different from the US…(right). Some will drown but it is a sacrifice needed to maintain a long term healthy economy.

#145 house burden on 07.03.12 at 1:20 am

35 Joe the Realtor on 07.02.12 at 6:05 pm

===============================
No joe the Realitor it appears that alot of the blog dogs here are waiting on the sideline with liquidity (CASH, stocks, preferred shares…

Housing doesn’t produce anything, same as government. Its the public sector which produces real goods and services and pay taxes to fund the bolded government which allows it to exist.

Canada housing is facing the same problem as Bernie Maddolf. It can only exist if people keep on buying in and raising the prices of real estate. Once the prices cease to inflate, then so does the buying.

Once if flat-lines, the people cannot continue the cycle of price inflation and the price deflation cycle begins. But at an exponential rate. Decreasing faster than the inflated pace.

When this happens, the real-estating, builder, sales and anything to do with housing sectors will be wiped.

CMHC will be the fanny and freddy of canada. Cost of borrowing will increase, unlike the USA, we do not have the same type of printing press, without causing real inflation. We will be like Greece and the cost of borrowing will automatically rise.

Meaning people with cash will see more return on their cash due to interest rate hikes of a deflationary cycle.

For every loser there’s a someone else winning

#146 EJ on 07.03.12 at 1:26 am

Half a mil fora less than 600sqft condo built during a bubble? No thanks, I’d sooner put my money into a rare coin or stamp if that’s the alternative.

People are already starting to blame F’s new regulations for the problems we’ll be facing, not realizing that it was the lowering of lending standards while turning on the credit taps years ago that actually caused the problem. Mob mentality knows no logic.

#147 Vancouverite on 07.03.12 at 1:32 am

hmm….REALTORS (TM)’s new job:

Higher education: Ex-real estate agent teaching students how to design, build and run their own grow-ops

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/07/02/higher-education-ex-real-estate-agent-teaching-students-how-to-design-their-own-grow-ops/

#148 ANONYMOUS on 07.03.12 at 1:53 am

I have not bought a house yet and EVERYONE CALLS ME AN IDIOT !

Okay, I guess I’m an idiot.

But at least I won’t be havng a heart attack in a few years from the huge losses.

#149 Rick in Japan on 07.03.12 at 3:25 am

KEN S IN LA-LA

You are an idiot who is on the wrong blog.

#150 Soylent Green is People on 07.03.12 at 3:52 am

Wtf re war on good middle class jobs like teachers ECG

It’s the trilliOns in corporate welfare ruining everything

Thanks azzphate Stephen harper

.
Z
Z
Z
A

A
A
A

#151 Aussie Roy on 07.03.12 at 4:26 am

Joe the Realtor
on 07.02.12 at 6:05 pm

F has no clue but he is going to distory the economy. You blog dogs don’t get it as RE is the only industry we have left . If the housing market goes down so does Canada. You say we are in a RE bubble?? so what if we are? as everyone knew that four years ago. For the first time in my life I knew what it was like to feed off the taxpayer but now that cash cow is gone . You will enjoy a housing crash blog dogs but the economy will suffer. In a Panic realtor guy ……Go bang yourself.

……………………………………………………………………………

It’s the only industry left.

Seriously, do all Realtors think like you?.

How stupid is it to think that it’s possible to sustain the delusion, that we can all get rich by selling each other our RE for ever increasing prices, using other peoples money (debt).

Bubbles always burst, destroying the delusional participants phantom wealth. There has never been a bubble which hasn’t burst.

Perhaps in a few years time you might remember this,
“House prices are driven by emotion, debt and wages, sustainable house prices are driven by wages”.

How much have wages risen compared to house prices?.

Can you guess what’s driven house prices?.

A year ago, Realtors say there is no bubble, you idiot bubble heads.
Today, Joe the Realtor, says who cares if we have a bubble.
Next stop?, reality?.

#152 Aussie Roy on 07.03.12 at 5:47 am

Aussie Headlines

Housing outlook: the bad and the ugly

House bubble is actually a land price bubble

Australian home prices experienced a decade of strong growth that was not matched by the growth in underlying fundamentals: incomes, rents and construction costs.

It’s just a simple land price bubble, like many others we have seen around the globe.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/housing-outlook-the-bad-and-the-ugly-20120703-21e8z.html

THE Bureau of Statistics has got the official employment figures wrong, and although it is happy to acknowledge the errors, it won’t correct them in the official record because it will cost too much money.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/abs-job-figures-wrong-but-its-too-big-a-job-to-fix-20120702-21del.html

Only just realising there never was a shortage, just increased demand to buy anything to get rich.

The census found there were 1.1 million fewer households than in estimates used by the NHSC, and 595,000 fewer private dwellings.

Adjusted by Morgan Stanley researchers to allow for a potential census under count, the 228,000-home undersupply becomes a 341,000-home oversupply.

1.
http://www.prosper.org.au/2012/07/03/housing-flips-into-oversupply-its-official/

2. http://beta.afr.com/p/business/property/housing_undersupply_you_shouldn_FFAUmmahkHLANiAOxaOY2N

Aussie RE porn “The Block” has a new star – Danny Wallis

FERRARI-driving Energy Watch International boss Danny Wallis has infuriated ex-employees by shelling out $1.4 million for a house featured on The Block while they are owed thousands.

They say the entrepreneur should hand over $680,000 of unpaid superannuation (employees 401K’s) before splashing out on the luxury South Melbourne property featured in the reality TV show.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/ex-staff-owed-money-are-doing-their-block/story-e6frf7kx-1226415107878

Even RE mega BULL questions, rising house price index by RP Data.

Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond has taken a circumspect view on the 1% rise in dwelling prices recorded by RP Data-Rismark over the month of June.

“It’s a bit early to be cracking open the bubbly,” Symond says.

“You have double the number of homes on the market and double and treble the length of time for them to sell – that creates a lag.”

Symond says what may have helped the RP Data numbers were state governments bringing forward incentives for first-home buyers.

“There’s a whole lot of reasons.”

“It’s just too early… It’s still all negative news,” Symond said on Channel 7’s Sunrise program today.

He says normally a 1% to 1.25% drop in interest rates (the cumulative size of RBA rate cuts since November is 125 basis points) would result in a surge in home-buyers, but consumers remain cautious and are not diving into the market.

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/dont-crack-open-the-bubbly-yet-on-housing-market-recovery-john-symond/2012070355397

Spotlight Australia: Collapse in Service Sector; Unrelenting Discount Wars; Catastrophic Decline in Profits; Stranded Merchandise in Warehouses

Australia is in grim shape. Retailers are going under, home prices are sinking, and there is an enormous collapse in the entire service sector.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/spotlight-australia-collapse-in-service.html

#153 futureexpatriate on 07.03.12 at 6:17 am

#60 – Pete…. are ye daft man?

Governments don’t make mistakes…. VOTERS do.

#154 LP on 07.03.12 at 7:06 am

#133Mackie on 07.02.12 at 11:45 pm
ok Garth Just let me say one last thing. Teachers are not professionals. It’s one year (6 months or so) of teachers college after they get a 3-year degree in sociology or what have you. You are not professionals and calling yourselves professionals will not change the fact. And you belong to a union, call it a federation if it makes you feel better but it is a labour union and one of the most powerful and militant of all unions in this country. And stop saying you are “doing it for the kids.” If you were doing it for the kids you would take a pay cut so the boards can buy the books etc they need. OK that’s all I want to say.

Here in Ontario a teacher candidate requires a 4-year honours degree plus 1 year of teacher’s college at university.

Union vs federation – fair comment

“Doing it for the kids” – why not look to the palatial buildings the boards build for themselves or the incessant foreign fact-finding junkets some board members go on instead of blaming the teachers’ salaries/benefits for scanty book-buying budgets? Our daughter buys the needed books from her personal funds; her parents buy the hats and mitts and sometimes the boots for the kids who go to school in the winter without them. In this year just ended, during one of the hottest Junes on record, the school where she taught had no open-able windows and no air conditioning. I invite you to teach under those circumstances.

And what is your definition of a “professional” exactly? Six years schooling? Seven? More? Do tell, please.

#155 Steven Rowlandson on 07.03.12 at 7:47 am

The real estate market everywhere will be in turmoil by September. The bankers know it. The realtors smell it. The sheeple have no idea what’s coming.

At the very least it will be in turmoil and more likely well on the way to being tits up with little or no chance of being revived.
Why? Too many people being under paid, unemployed and priced out of the market for too long. All the price gains since the 1930s– 1950s to now must be wiped away before real estate is affordable. Better an end in horror for real estate cultists than a horror with out end indulging their financial fantasies.

#156 Aussie Roy on 07.03.12 at 7:58 am

Aussie Headlines

The GFC and current financial global problems explained as only Aussie comedians Clarke and Dawe can.

8 videos – 16mins

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc&feature=list_other&playnext=1&list=SPDB223DCE781D0606

#157 Uh Oh Canada on 07.03.12 at 8:20 am

I’ve been waiting for this bubble to pop since 2008. Lost interest this year and guess what? It’s happening. It just goes to show that things happen when you least expect it. Looking forward to moving back to Vancity when the housing crashes.

#158 Q on 07.03.12 at 8:20 am

#35 Joe the Stealtor

“You blog dogs don’t get it as RE is the only industry we have left . If the housing market goes down so does Canada.”

Just reinforces the fact, that as a realtor you are a full member of the “single digit club (IQ). Real estate is not causal, but reflective of the ecomomy. Believing otherwise is what created the mess in the USA. In a legitimate market, when the economy is good, people buy house because they are comfortably employed and have saved a reasonable down payment (15% minimum). When people buy in a bad economic cycle just because money is cheap and the so called “experts” manipulate the legitimate economic statistics by including real estate as “industrial growth”…. lemmings buy until the bubble goes pop (that would be now). Add to that the self interest of inept governments leveraging our grandchildren and wooing voters with cheap money to get re elected, allowing…no, encouraging them to get in way over their heads…and you have a recipe for disaster. Yes, the general Canadian economy will suffer badly in the coming real estate bloodbath, but maybe it takes that kind of “wake up call” to re educate the average lemming and remind them that home ownership is not an entitlement, but an earned right.

As for realtors, hopefully you will soon be joined in your new venture (panhandling for quarters), by the bankers and brokers that helped cause this coming fiasco. Adding government bureaucrats and politicians to the poverty rolls, would just be too much to hope for. Besides, like cockroaches….they seem to have an inate sense of self preservation.

#159 yorel on 07.03.12 at 8:25 am

Check this out.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/07/02/f-toronto-condo-boom.html

#160 Herb on 07.03.12 at 8:35 am

Garth, it’s a great post, you’re right, and it won’t end well, but all I can think of after seeing that picture is “Alright, Lady, keep your hands up and turn around!”

#161 Herb on 07.03.12 at 8:50 am

#123 Blue Monster,

what “market forces”? The ideals you list, or the elimination of competition, the greed, and ambition for growth that are the operative ones? I’d kind of like to keep those out of “non-productive” essential services.

#162 Islander on 07.03.12 at 8:55 am

32. grim reaper/crypt creeper. Very good

#163 Grantmi on 07.03.12 at 8:56 am

That Sherry Cooper is HOT !

I just threw-up into my bowl of Red River cereal!

#164 DodgedBullet on 07.03.12 at 8:58 am

For the Bull’s:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/07/02/f-toronto-condo-boom.html

For those swayed by CBC’s “reporting”: What a horrible world to live in.

#165 Saggy Bottom Boomer on 07.03.12 at 9:03 am

…and now for an opposing point of view on Toronto housing prices. This would be funny if it wasn’t so tragic.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/07/02/f-toronto-condo-boom.html

#166 OttawaRenter on 07.03.12 at 9:15 am

Hey Garth, I am a female that actually doesn’t mind your photos. I see the humor, don’t think they’re sexist, etc etc. (hey women are beautiful, right?) However, I do reead your blog at work, and sometimes I have to hurridly scroll past the photos. If you could just remember that not all of us work from home or read your blog there….

#167 Toronto_CA on 07.03.12 at 9:22 am

#132 Watchdog, do you think if you wrote to them via email they’d give you the stats? I saw the “info graphic” yesterday and had incorrectly assumed it was a new feature that would run along with the real stats. The cute-sy graphics make me barf.

Does this mean it will be impossible to get real numbers on the situation now that all we have are the manipulated TREB numbers and infographics?

#168 Enough said: on 07.03.12 at 9:37 am

As the economist Robert Shiller once said:

“A bubble occurs when exaggerated expectations of future prices increase unusual demand either by people who fear being priced out of a market or by investors hoping to make a lot of money fast. A bubble is a self-fulfilling prophecy for a while, as successive rounds of buyers push prices higher and higher. But the willingness to pay higher and higher prices is fragile: It will end whenever buyers perceive that prices are no longer going up. Hence bubbles carry the seeds of their own destruction. Only time is needed for bubbles to end.”

#169 Inglorious Investor on 07.03.12 at 9:50 am

#153 LP on 07.03.12 at 7:06 am

To become a teacher, one needs:
• minimum three-year postsecondary degree (not an honours degree)
• one-year teacher education program
• teacher’s college certification (pay a fee)

I respect good teachers, but let’s face it, one reason so many people in Ontario have become teachers over the last 20 years (I almost lost count how many teachers I know) is because the barriers to entry were very low, and it is a good paying job with excellent benefits and pension.

There are a couple of issues that irk tax payers and parents:

More Money For Teachers, But Not For Education
———————————————————-
Despite all the money the Ontario government has poured into eduction over past several years, there is less and less money for students (e.g. books) and the school facilities. I have two kids in grade school and I can tell you the school is constantly fund-raising, while student resources are declining.

Read this excerpt from chapter 6 of a report from the Commission on the Reform of Ontario’s Public Services (http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/reformcommission/chapters/ch6.html)

“Provincial spending on elementary and secondary education has grown significantly over the past decade despite declining student enrolment. Since 2002–03, student enrolment has declined from 1,997,000 to 1,877,000, a decrease of 6.0 per cent, or 0.7 per cent per year on average. Despite this decline of 120,000 students, there are about 24,000 more teachers and non-teaching staff in Ontario’s publicly funded schools. If teaching and non-teaching staff had declined since 2002–03 proportionally to the decline in enrolment, there would have been 35,000 fewer teaching and non-teaching staff in Ontario’s schools in 2010–11. The combination of increased funding and declining enrolment has led to a 56 per cent increase in per-pupil funding from $7,201 in 2002–03 to $11,207 in 2011–12.”

Tax Payer Funded Increases
———————————-
Teachers have been rewarded with relatively generous increases to compensation while private sector tax payers have not seen growth in their wages. It is fundamentally unfair to take more money from tax payers for higher teacher salaries when their own wages/salaries are not increasing. My point is not that teachers are overcompensated, which can be debated. My point is, the pay of public sector workers should reflect the ability of the tax payer to sustain that pay.

Another point that some would make is that there is a fundamental conflict of interest when those who serve the public are allowed to unionize against it.

From friends and relatives who are teachers, I know that teaching is not an easy job. And as I said, I respect the good ones. But, honestly I know more people in the private sector whose jobs are far more stressful and who must work much more the same pay. Teachers may not have it easy. But in my experience, most of them don’t know just how good they have it.

#170 refinow on 07.03.12 at 10:11 am

You know what is funny, some said Flarhety did too much, some say he didn’t do enough.

Canada’s Real Estate is the Titanic, and has already hit the iceberg.

Guess what people, CMHC is taking definitive steps to vacate the mortgage insurance business. Now keep in mind they will not be able to walk away from 600 trillion in existing insured mortgages obligations, but rest assured by this time next year CMHC will be completely out of insuring new mortgages.

The executives who were previously running CMHC just hopped on to a proverbial life boat. Are quickly rowing to create distance so they don’t get sucked in when the RE market finally sinks.

CMHC has vacated the Refinance market. Consumers have no idea the overall affect that will have on existing homeowners,

Think about it. Every house now has 20% of untouchable equity, the moment it is purchased. If you bought with 5% down, with a 30 year amortization you now have to pay off 22.90% of your mortgage before a Bank, Trust Company or credit union will agree to lend you $1.00 more on your mortgage.

This event, the inclusion of Canada in the Housing crisis has been years in the making, what amazes me most are all the nay sayers, not in my back yard i gans….Well when CMHC, the Bank’s and the Canadian Government has started significant preparations for what is about to come, how can you be so arrogant to continue to not comprehend the enormous correction that is about to occur.

We, unlike any other country in the world have had so much time to prepare for this event, and yet, continue to say it won’t happen here……

Guess what, it has already begun….

#171 GregW, Oakville on 07.03.12 at 10:16 am

Hi #66&138 Nostra, Here’s two links you may find interesting.

First link is to the IEEE Spectrum Magazine July Issue. It has many technical articles.
I wonder if RIM knows about this article in the issue?
“A Butane Recharger for Your Cellphone”
A USB-based fuel cell system will recharge your portable electronics for pennies.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/magazine/

This next link is to a friends blog, he just got back from a Tulum (vacation) and has put together a YouTube video of his adventures 23min. “Tulum Series – Part I Cenotes, Snorkling and Cave Diving”, a link to it is on his site July 2 update. http://rockwatching.wordpress.com/

#172 Kim on 07.03.12 at 10:20 am

Nothing selling in the GTA and in fact two houses in my area that were sold a month ago have now lost their sold sign and are for sale again??WTF? Can a realtor explain?? In any case driving around the city you now see a sea of for sale signs and from what my girl friend has told me condo’s in DT Toronto are hitting the market in high numbers. 61 condo’s for sale in her building alone on fork york blvd overlooking the never ending noise of the Gardiner. Are people that silly to buy a condo besides a highway? I guess when it’s free money(CHMC) it’s not a problem.

#173 Timbo on 07.03.12 at 10:22 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/03/us-economy-factory-idUSBRE8620NH20120703

“The Commerce Department said on Tuesday new orders for manufactured goods rose 0.7 percent during the month.

Economists had forecast orders rising 0.2 percent.

The report showed broad gains across industries making everything from machinery and appliances to cars and planes.”

Light at the end of the tunnel………………..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-iran-oil-hormuz-idUSBRE8610R920120702

“Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has drafted a bill calling for Iran to try to stop oil tankers from shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz to countries that support sanctions against it, a committee member said on Monday.”

Fighting words! Party on Alberta till the next collapse….

#174 Enough said: on 07.03.12 at 10:24 am

True, governments can reduce the rate of interest in the short run. They can issue additional paper money. They can open the way to credit expansion by the banks. They can thus create an artificial boom and the appearance of prosperity. But such a boom is bound to collapse soon or late and to bring about a depression.

– Ludwig von Mises writing in Omnipotent Government

#175 concerned realtor in the house on 07.03.12 at 10:26 am

#118 The great American

*cough* realtor *cough*

#176 Reddy on 07.03.12 at 10:29 am

Its nice to see you’re back with the better pics Garth.

#177 Toronto_CA on 07.03.12 at 10:30 am

American#118 – “Everyone is thinking that there is going to be a crash. Canada is safe, clean, full of jobs and continues to chug along with positive GDP.”

Yeah, it’s different here. I’ve never heard that arguement before, except from every other place there ever was a RE bubble ever.

Seriously, has any place in a bubble before it popped ever had home owners en masse say of “Oh this is a for sure bubble, we’re doomed”? No. They’ve all said just what you posted, coming out with reasons why the fundamentals of house price to incomes or house price to rental price or house price increase to inflation all don’t apply to .

And guess what, they have always been wrong. The reason Canada did not have a major housing crash is because credit became cheap and easy (40 year zero down cash back ARM started when? 2007? now at 2.99 all time low mortgage rates?) . That’s the only reason. It’s an credit backed asset bubble:

http://www.legadoassociates.com/lessons1.htm

Great link from the chief investment analyst at Legado Associates posted over the weekend, btw.

#178 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 07.03.12 at 10:35 am

#125 Tom from Mississauga on 07.02.12 at 11:15 pm BMO tightened up on fraud/credit in my statement this month by putting a 7 day hold on cheques. Asked at the bank, they are getting lots of empty envelopes at the ATM of late. Starts Aug 1.
——————————————————————–

People are on the brink of going bankrupt. People used their HELOC to pay their mortgages and debts and this is a huge fact. People will borrow until they are bankrupt and Canadians are BANKRUPT. Debt to income ratio at a record 152%+ and people think a greater then 50% crash can not happen? Debt and even more debt was the only way people could afford 500K condos and $1million dollar houses but a 50% correct will put it back to NORMAL $250k condos and 500k houses.

#179 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 07.03.12 at 10:55 am

It’s like the gloomy weather is matching the gloomy RE market in Vancouver. The buzz has worn off and the hang over has set in. Never mind the rain, I can’t believe how COLD it is for July! People are wearing winter jackets and tuques! It almost feels cold enough to snow in the early morning. The rain is almost incessant. The weather forecasters have started telling us the one hour period when the rain might stop and we can put away the umbrellas. During that one hour once a week, everyone goes outside. Last summer was almost just as bad. So we haven’t had summer for 2 years now in Vancouver.

#180 truth hammer on 07.03.12 at 11:10 am

OK….this is a real brain stopper. Why WOULDN’T anyone go for a zero down deal on any amount of money? They’re still getting money for nothing with a HELOC and 5% down…..nothings changed.

Money is free…cash has lost all ‘value’. As long as these ‘new kids’ have low monthly payments they will continue to buy.

We all know that our government has been employing new immigrants in record numbers….to better represent the community’ to the point where ‘the other etnic group’ are being told not to apply.

We know what happens when you give free money away and the recieving party has no responsibility to pay it back…….theres no financial treaty with China….if the crap hits the fan we will see the CMHC lump this whole mess onto the national debt and blame on the miscreants who’ve ‘left the country’.

Immigrants are already flooding OUT of Canada as fast as their CDN passports can be printed…why not ‘borrow’ a little money from the taxpayers for spec on the way out?

It’s a beautiful thing……..you immigrate to Canada…the government guarantee’s you a highly paid civil service job to ‘talk ‘ to other immigrants’ and then the banks gives you free money to speculate with while you’re here……..who WOULDN’T leverage to the hilt when they have zero skin in the game legally or otherwise.

Again the government is using immigration as a weapon aginst their opposition as a way to garner support going into a distant election.

1) more seats in Parliament being created in ‘obediant’ ethnic constituencies

2) juice up the ethnic community with lots of freebies while playing austerity with others

3) look sideways when there is a problem ( criminal or financial) with any one part of the country financially where immigrants are concerned

You’d think the Cons were taking a page from the old Liberal playbook ……and once again the CDN’s are getting to watch their democracy being raped for the sake of political convieniance.

#181 woper_holic on 07.03.12 at 11:13 am

I was biting my lip until it bled last night to stop myself from ripping into Grooby’s #96 moronic post, as I promised Garth that I would bury the topic. I am, however, happy to see that others simply could not control themselves.

To these fine and brave posters I say, THANK YOU!

#182 Aaron on 07.03.12 at 11:13 am

It is interesting to read about Van and TO, but what do you think will happen in the most important city in Canada……..Halifax?

#183 Canadian Watchdog on 07.03.12 at 11:23 am

#165 Toronto_CA

Red Pin’s latest changes made me realize these guys are a bunch of amateurs who may have thought providing less information is better for their own interest. They haven’t figured out how the success of sites like Zillow are purely based on providing users with as much information as possible.

Information is ‘market knowledge’, and without more credible statistics people will continue to make bad decisions, in turn, creating more risk to the downside.

#184 disciple on 07.03.12 at 11:24 am

Garth, I like this post. Crashed/crash… Half (50%)… 1920’s… disaster… bankers… chaos. It has all the keywords and elements of a blockbuster. Similar to the feeling one would get if they knew that the President of Switzerland is played by Susan Sarandon…

#185 Enough said: on 07.03.12 at 11:28 am

I think what is happening in real estate is a part of a bigger trend: the honest work counts less than speculation and getting ahead on the backs of others.

I love Toronto Public Library and that’s the reason I am giving this example from its 2010 Financial statements (major items only):

The total “revenues” (donations from City of Toronto and the Feds) – $177 millions
Salaries and wages – $137 millions
Services purchased outside – $22 millions
Library materials – $17 millions

Please not that Library materials are only 10% and salaries and wages 77% of the donations from our pockets.

If you go to any library you will notice security staff from hired agencies (when I inquired about it I was told that patrons steal books).

My point here is that the government and public agencies spend our money shifting them to other people and pretending they manage economy so wonderfully.
The government also fueled the housing bubble and the cohorts of greedy idiots (some of them lucky in the process) run it.

Well, guess what! We will all pay for that. Especially the honest hardworking people. There is nothing to take from bums and over leveraged speculators.

#186 Enough said: on 07.03.12 at 11:33 am

TO: #164 OttawaRenter

That’s what I’m talking about. Government workers reading blogs instead of working. They are paid by heavily imposed taxes on hardworking people. Than you Ottawa Renter for proving my point about government wastefulness.

#187 Toronto Public Library Annual Financial Statements 201 on 07.03.12 at 11:38 am

The last available on the internet. For the numbers scroll to the last page. I guess they are shy about their “results”.

http://www.torontopubliclibrary.ca/annual-report-2010/2010-annual-report.pdf

#188 Idiots with money on 07.03.12 at 11:54 am

Just like little kids…

You can tell them that fire is hot, but they never learn until they get burned.

#189 jess on 07.03.12 at 12:02 pm

FRAUD BURSTS : cloud bursts

Big Pharma’s Big Fines
by Lena Groeger
ProPublica, Today, 10 a.m.
The government has fined drug companies billions of dollars for illegally promoting drugs for unapproved uses. Here’s a closer look at six of the most recent major fraud fines

========

“shareholder dictatorship.”
http://www.propublica.org/thetrade/item/how-shareholders-are-hurting-america.

Executives, investors, and the business press routinely chant the mantra that corporations are required to “maximize shareholder value.” In this pathbreaking book, renowned corporate expert Lynn Stout debunks the myth that corporate law mandates shareholder primacy. Stout shows how shareholder value thinking endangers not only investors but the rest of us as well, leading managers to focus myopically on short-term earnings; discouraging investment and innovation; harming employees, customers, and communities; and causing companies to indulge in reckless, sociopathic, and irresponsible behaviors. And she looks at new models of corporate purpose that better serve the needs of investors, corporations, and society”

#190 mid-Ontario on 07.03.12 at 12:22 pm

#121 Inglorius Investor
Well said. When we have strong leadership, things may change. The current system that produces leadership likes their leaders compliant. Although everyone bashes Harper, he did tell the euro technocratic leadership to take a hike!

#191 futureexpatriate on 07.03.12 at 12:43 pm

#177 Joe Blown…. about Vancouver not having a summer… about 95% of the US would trade you theirs’ for yours right now.

#192 futureexpatriate on 07.03.12 at 12:44 pm

#186 – Would that be before or after his “tie” with Dubyah?

#193 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 12:46 pm

#123 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.02.12 at 11:09 pm
#146 Frank le skank on 07.02.12 at 8:05 pm
all the more reason to privatize them to bring market forces to bare.
……………………………………………………………
You sir and your ilk are THE problem. Market forces have not and never will mean better, stronger, faster but rather more profit for less service.

#194 cramar on 07.03.12 at 12:46 pm

I was cleaning out some old files and came across articles I copied from The Economist June 18, 2005. The focus of that issue was a Special Report on “The global housing boom.” One subheading says, “The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops.”

Even though the focus was global, they specifically warned against the dangerous bubble in the U.S. The lead article “After the fall” (p13) starts out with:

“Perhaps the best evidence that America’s house prices have reached dangerous levels is the fact the house-buying mania has been plastered on the front of virtually every American newspaper and magazine over the past month.”

Just substitute Canada for America and you get an accurate description of the bubble here some 6-7 years later!

The first paragraph goes on, “… the day of reckoning is closer at hand. It is not going to be pretty.”

The article continues on: “Many people protest that house prices are less vulnerable to a meltdown. Houses, they argue, are not paper wealth like shares; you can live in them. Houses cannot be sold as quickly as shares, making a price crash less likely. It is true that house prices do not plummet like a brick. They tend to drift downwards, more like a brick with a parachute attached. But when you land, it still hurts.”

The article then discusses the reasons for the bubble: the disparity between renting and owning, bigger mortgages, cheap credit, owners using their homes as ATMs, and “relying on rising house prices to provide them with a comfortable pension”. It states the fact that prolonged economic weakness always follows housing collapses.

I can understand seven years ago the average American not seeing the bubble for what it was. They never experienced this before in their lifetimes. But we as Canadians SEE & KNOW the outcome south of the border and yet STILL follow blindly in their footsteps! We have had years to prepare. Reminds me of my favourite quote by American philosopher George Santayana:

“Though who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

#195 Frank le Skank on 07.03.12 at 12:55 pm

#139 BigAl (Original) on 07.03.12 at 12:54 am
You hit the nail on the head

#185 jess on 07.03.12 at 12:02 pm
You have brought up a very interesting point. This really does explain why so many companies/goverments are so short sighted. Every strategy, policy and decision is made with a mathematical equation that is not able to quantify certain variables. One of the those variables is employee satisfaction, a happy worker is a good worker.

#196 Realtors don't like realtors either.... on 07.03.12 at 12:59 pm

Truth in advertising….

This house listed on the MLS as a 5 bedroom and 5 bath..
but it’s not built yet, and is only $800k for land value only!
Therefore, the listing lures you to look at something that they are NOT providing.
For $300k, you buy the land and you “could” build a 5 bathroom house in Vancouver, for your 4 tenants ( thats how it works out here – room numbers on bedrooms, but the Mayor doesn’t care, cause it helps homelessness), nevermind that there is no parking on the street, that is someone elses problem. But back to the listing…..
This is like a cross between a “pre-sale” condo listing and downright false advertising – where the tell you the dream but it isn’t what you actually get.

That is why in Vancouver, everyone want’s realtors in the poo poo.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11607766&PidKey=502474821

If this is how professionals act, why be a criminal?

#197 YoungProfessional on 07.03.12 at 12:59 pm

Hi Garth,
I have been following your blog for a couple of months now. I’m a young professional renting an apartment downtown Ottawa with my boyfriend. All of my coworkers tell me that I’m throwing money away, and that Ottawa is a much more secure market than Vancouver and Toronto. What are your throughts on Ottawa?
Also you always seem to have monthly statistics on real estate. Where do you get your numbers from?

Thanks

Ottawa is not different. And I make the numbers up to save research staff costs. Like in Ottawa. — Garth

#198 Bill Gable on 07.03.12 at 1:10 pm

Still raining in Vancouver.

Maybe we should all buy 600 sq. foot Arks? (* I have been here, off and on since 1973 – but this is getting ridiculous).

#199 jess on 07.03.12 at 1:10 pm

Be careful when viewing/ thinking about Garth’s latest image and filtering it with the wrong anatomy. Her name is name is Eris.
http://www.theoi.com/Daimon/Eris.html
Dysnomia

=========

#200 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 1:19 pm

#113 blase on 07.02.12 at 10:40 pm
…………………………………………………………..
Sounds like Anyang but I do not remember a 40 minute train ride on the blue line to go dancing all night at Hollywoods after a good steak and a movie at Nashville’s. Dry cleaned everything except my under wear and socks for pennies a month. I honestly had a real hard time in Canada and it has been great in Asia but my kids must return to Canada to speak native English. I am not looking forward to returning to minimum wage jobs with a family in tow. I have a huge fear that my wife will have to bear witness to just what a giant loser I can be in my home country. Here I work like a dog and make good money at it. I work 12 hour days 4 days a week and a 13 hour day once a week and then pile 15 to 20 hours of prep time on top of that. Sure I will have lots of time back home, but no money. The thing is, it is more important for the kids to be native English speakers rather than native Japanese and the vaunted elementary school system here is actually ranked lower than Canada’s as of 2010 and for good reason (it was opposite in 2003). They brought in a host of changes to address this slip that include a huge rise in amount of material covered in a given time. High school on the other hand is still top notch and the entire culture is very studious. On top of all this it will cost about $1200 Canadian to straighten each child’s teeth as dental is covered by national health insurance. I am in hell. Clearly I should return home but clearly I should not.

#201 daystar on 07.03.12 at 1:21 pm

Let’s bury this useless topic. — Garth

What, the topic of social engineering?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_engineering_(political_science)

CMHC, social engineering, same topic or am I missing something? Perhaps credit is more preferable over incomes, lol, we do like to specialize.

#62 Mackie on 07.02.12 at 7:53 pm I missed yesterday’s discussion involving teachers. Let me say this, if education was private rather than public, these blowhards would be making half of what they make now and their benefits package would not be near as good as it is now. – mackie

So what you are saying is that students who look at careers will flock in droves to teach for $23,000 their first year with $3,500 in benefits (if they use them) after 4 years of school and student loans assuming they don’t drop out to max out under $50,000 15 years later? (more than 50% do drop out from start to finish)

Thats sexy, enough is it, thats going to buy good talent? Or maybe we think teaching doesn’t take talent or brains or patience or much of anything, just show up right? You must. Minimum wage earners averaged $19,798 bucks last year (without the training).

Do you have a clue as to what 4 years of graduate degrees average with incomes in the private sector?

Yeah. Right. Someone has to do it for you or you wouldn’t and it shows:

http://www.dba-oracle.com/t_increased_earnings_income_bachelors_masters_doctorate.htm

I have to laugh, a teacher puts in the same hours as a banker but gets an extra hour a day of homework (they don’t get paid for) with all the extra curriculars (they don’t get paid for) and yet a banker, like these guys who profit the most off of bloated RE/credit bubbles that are about to evaporate the middle class don’t get a mention:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/15/canda-bank-ceo-earnings_n_1349031.html

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1109514–highest-paid-canadian-ceos-got-27-per-cent-pay-hike

“By noon on Tuesday, Jan. 3, the highest-paid chief executives officers in Canada will have earned as much as the average Canadian makes in an entire year, according to a new report.” – the star

Does that make sense to you? Is that “fair” that these guys make more in a morning than the average person makes in a year? (I’m assuming we’re average if thats alright with you) Our CEO bankers stand to walk away with $50 to $100 million (or more) for a decade of bankers hours. Thats our “private” system at its finest.

I have to laugh, unions shouldn’t be negotiating for public sector wages, its somehow a conflict of interest, what in the world do you all think corporate board members do for their salary bumps and bonus’s? Isn’t that just a little bit “insider” influenced?

Perspectives, good God.

#168 refinow on 07.03.12 at 10:11 am

Excellent comment. CMHC’s lending days are soon to end. Not only is Canada’s housing market and economy ruined by a RE/credit bubble, our government can no longer afford to keep it growing. Everything is about to change here in Canada .

#202 Bottoms_Up on 07.03.12 at 1:33 pm

#193 YoungProfessional on 07.03.12 at 12:59 pm
————————————————–
One area for housing market stats:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/homain/stda/index.cfm

Ottawa has typically been known to be ‘recession proof’, but that doesn’t mean that house/condo prices won’t come down. In my neighbourhood prices have been flat for a year — so what do you think the future will be for prices in Ottawa? My guess is a 5-10% decline. Time frame? Who knows, perhaps over 2 years.

You will probably be able to buy a condo in Ottawa cheaper in a year or two….but whether you’re happy with the ‘discount’ you get vs. how long and how much you spend renting is really a crap shoot.

As always, location location location is key. Figuring out what constitutes the 3L’s is another issue. Everyone you speak with thinks their abode meets the 3L’s.

#203 Toon Town Boomer on 07.03.12 at 1:40 pm

On the other, idiot buyers, popped on leverage, are embracing deals they see as riskless.

You got that right! Here in Saskatoon silly buyers are buying above the asking prices. I can’t believe this.

#204 American Werewolf in BC on 07.03.12 at 1:41 pm

#35 Joe the Realtor on 07.02.12 at 6:05 pm
You blog dogs don’t get it as RE is the only industry we have left .

========================

That’s not a healthy economy then. That is a pyramid scheme driven by the pain debt slaves must carry the rest of their lives, dashing any hopes of intergenerational mobility. The more swiftly that is ended will be the less overall pain for everyone.

In the states, a family can finally afford a home without mortgaging their future finally. That means the middle class has taken the first step towards viability in decades. Meanwhile in Canada, we are running in the opposite direction supporting this market which will inevitably collapse under its own weight.

#205 Bottoms_Up on 07.03.12 at 1:45 pm

#131 James on 07.02.12 at 11:31 pm
————————————-
Entry-level teaching salaries are horrendous (we’re talking $45,000…basically borderline poverty, especially if they have their own children to raise)….and that’s after spending 4-5+ years in university (taking on debt), then supply teaching for years (getting paid diddly, and actually living at or below the poverty line), all the while hoping to land a full-time spot.

And competition to get into teacher’s college is crazy. Go figure.

Where do I sign up?

#206 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 1:47 pm

I have never been so conscious of the deep fear I carry and the accompanying sense of inadequacy. I truly do not see a way forward or how to make things okay. Turning 50 has really done a number on my head. I can not let this stand. Modeling is a primal teaching method and I refuse to model “loser paralyzed by fear” for my children for any length of time. I do not want them having to contend with such feelings while living out their lives. This housing bubble is not welcome and yet another obstacle. It is easy to imagine how people run head long off cliffs of various forms rather than become comfortable with such feelings. It is only now that I find myself having to sit still with these feelings so I can better separate thoughts from actions and thus make better decisions and further expand my capacities regarding meta cognition. I will acclimatize and adapt but what the next opportunity is lies beyond my imagination presently. I am slowly letting go of Canada but I know in my heart this is a mistake for the children. After all, it is up to my boys to get the family name inscribed on the cup. They will likely have to play nets as they are strong as oxen but I do not think they will be tall enough. 300k houses in my home town with no jobs (not even minimum wage jobs). Things were a lot simpler when all I had to contend with was the remote chance of drowning while working as a raft guide. All I did then was say to myself I would rather go out standing on my feet rather then living timidly on my knees but the need to stay around for the kids has render that thinking ineffective.

#207 BCObserver on 07.03.12 at 1:56 pm

Like this blog, but see too many false statements. It is all very conditional. Rent in Vancouver may not be any cheaper than owning, but it depends on when it was purchased, and how much owing. People who hesitated to buy before 2003 (this blog’s most readership) even with a minimal down payment, and chose to rent are as foolish as those buying today.

#208 American Werewolf in BC on 07.03.12 at 2:00 pm

#65 peter on 07.02.12 at 7:57 pm
I respect anyone who can put a date on a decline.

=========

In June of 2007 we were interviewing listing agents for our home at the apex of our local market. There were quite rumors of an impending crash, but a hopefulness that another year could squeeze by. It was a time of uncertainty…it was a time for the greatest of fools.

By October of 2007, viewings on our house dropped to about 1 showing a month if lucky. One of the agents we previously interviewed was bagging our groceries at the local store, handing out free advice while we were in line. Prices began to slide below psychological threshholds.

By the time winter hit, everyone knew it was over. Prices were dropping by a good 20% across the board. Foreclosures began to appear, along with ‘for rent’ signs sitting beside of ‘for sale’ signs.

The following year became unimaginably bleak. It took us two continued years of renting our home out before we could find a buyer. The bottom fell out.

So anyway, the parallels are astonishing between now and that June I first listed my home. If human patterns of perception happen on the same trend, I would suggest that by the time winter comes, and into the new year, it will be a slaughter.

#209 Humpty Dumpty on 07.03.12 at 2:01 pm

Keep your shirts on for now…

Chaos has it multiples also..

Iran lawmakers prepare to close Hormuz Strait

http://www.rt.com/news/iran-bill-hormuz-strait-218/

Nigel Farage: Van Rompuy, Barroso worst people in EU since 1945

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z7RVT0a8zI

Is Japan Hiding the Dangers of Fukushima?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Rbm_MH3nSdM

When this pile of radioactive rubble hits our coast, lucky if you’ll get .70/sqft….

#210 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 2:01 pm

I used to be a warrior but now I am like an old man coming to grips with utter defeat that is finally overtaking me despite my heroic life long run from it …seriously man. How the hell am I supposed to know? What the hell am I supposed to do? I have no idea. It coming to me that the kids need money but they also need my time. The whole money thing should have been addressed during the decades I spent indulging my every whim. What a frigging bonehead move overall. I mean really. 50 years old facing starting over but for keeps with my sweethearts relying upon me and one of the greatest countries on earth no longer the safe haven I always knew it to be. I going to bed, maybe I will have all the answers again in the morning. The truth is I have done better than I rightfully should have given the environment but I could have done so much more especially considering what others have achieved the world over on so much less.

#211 eastvanspesh on 07.03.12 at 2:02 pm

Love this quote from the developer: “Every single house project YuanHeng invest and construct, is excellent and the taste of crystallization.”

#212 Daisy Mae on 07.03.12 at 2:16 pm

Pr on 07.02.12 at 8:35 pm
“Now, make sure only people with some of their owned money, can buy a house. Lets have 10% CASH DOWN MINIMUM.”

**************

Make that 20% down. CMHC is kinda tapped out….

#213 CP on 07.03.12 at 2:16 pm

#153 LP….. check your facts: “Here in Ontario a teacher candidate requires a 4-year honours degree plus 1 year of teacher’s college at university.”

…. or not?

http://www.oct.ca/become_a_teacher/

3 year program & no honours degree required. Hope you’re not educating my kids..

#214 American Werewolf in BC on 07.03.12 at 2:22 pm

#112 Mr Buyer on 07.02.12 at 10:36 pm
Two points…
Never in history has there been a soft landing upon the crash of a bubble

=================

Just to comment a bit on this idea….

People borrow money to buy homes on the assumption that the rising value will make the debt and expense ‘worth’ it. The perceived future growing equity must cancel out the costs for buyers.

This mechanism essentially creates a chain reaction (like a stock market algorithms that cause mass purchases), from one buyer to the next, that will continue to drive up prices. At some point, the concept of growing value must be true to reinforce the idea and continue to motivate new buyers.

But who will be willing to spend money and incur debt if the price will not grow tomorrow? Who will be willing to buy a home that will be worth 5% less next year? The perception that drives the majority of house buying will be absent in that scenario, drastically reducing demand.

The moment that homes are perceived the be dropping, a buyer must then purchase a home for even less than the predicted drop in order to feel they are getting a ‘deal’ (in order to feel the potential gain in value will offset the immediate and future costs).

This is why a ‘soft’ landing in real estate is impossible. If a buyer cannot perceive that an increase in value will offset the cost of borrowing, they will not buy (thereby reducing demand, which increases supply, which reduces prices, which changes the perceptual model buyers use to predict value).

In any case, if you can find wave after wave of buyers who continue to think, in a plateaued or dropping market, that they should purchase and asset for more than it will be worth tomorrow, you have found a true nation of Great Fools (its one thing to be wrong an buy, but its a whole other to buy knowing you are screwing yourself). Is Canada really that nation?

#215 antiflakflak on 07.03.12 at 2:24 pm

weather in vancouver, chemtrail induced, weather modification program, possible punishment on citizenry for thumbing noses at HST, and having nasty tax revolt –unlike Ontario, took it hook line & sinker.

#216 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.03.12 at 2:30 pm

#117 Chaos — “Chaos reminds others that there is opportunity in chaos.”

Nice to see you again! Your prophecies are pretty much right on the money — lotsa unexpected changes coming up, quicker than ever. Stay well — Cheers!

#121 Inglorious Investor — “I’m sorry, but it’s just all too convenient.” — But sheeple are entitled to a convenient lifestyle!

After all, this is the Convenient Generation, the young ‘uns who expect to be handed a silver spoon just for the asking, because they’re special and, we’re not! We’re just grunts. Better to ignore us, as we don’t know anything!

#140 Lookoutbelow — “I am desperately trying to find a “bullish” case for housing. Can anyone help ?” — Ask and ye shall receive.

On cue, here comes #142 $$$BPOE#1 — “Hurry it’s going fast.” to baffle us with his bullshit. But wait! We’re not sheeple, and this is not a shepherd’s blog!

#169 GregW, Oakville — G’day Greg. Thanks for the links! The power saving invention in AMD chips was very interesting.

#190 cramar — “… the day of reckoning is closer at hand. It is not going to be pretty.” — Good catch — telling forth (prophetically) the future, and the future is here and now.

#217 daystar on 07.03.12 at 2:43 pm

#62 Mackie on 07.02.12 at 7:53 pm

I gave you some vague U.S. stats actually, here are Canadian stats on wages in all of Canada’s sectors. By all means, browse and compare:

http://www.livingin-canada.com/work-salaries-wages-canada.html

Supplimental:

http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/sf0911_education.pdf

What’s missing is the income that is private. People who really want the $$$$ don’t work for a wage, they contract themselves out or they employ or they invest wisely (or do what our top bankers legally do, give themselves and their directors huge bonus’s and shares).

#218 VanRenter on 07.03.12 at 2:44 pm

Hey,
If you google image Sherry Cooper a picture of Garth Facepalming pops up

#219 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 07.03.12 at 2:46 pm

Where’s Smoking Man ?

After the Lightning Bolt came down, all that’s left was Camel cigarettes, cowboy boot, a tutu , G -string and denim shorts.

OMG……no….was that overpass photo THE last picture ???

#220 Oldmac on 07.03.12 at 2:49 pm

Hi Garth, I’ve been following your blog for awhile now. The market just keeps going UP! My co-workers and mother in law both say I should buy because renters are the modern equivalent of troglodytes. Is this true?

I know I could look at things like the job market, income trends or historical means, but this is totally at odds with the Greys Anatomy tonight. It’s just really hard to find that extra hour a week to form my own opinion! Isn’t that the job of like, Global or whatever to give me the right information?

Janie down the street just bought last year and now drives a brand new Subaru. Her job at the GAP must be going great. I assume she makes at least $120,000 now, as that condo cost $410,000. She says she made $80,000 on it ALREADY – she is a smart investor! On the way to work today I heard I can get one of these condos with no money down if I hurry and buy before the 9th. I talked to my buddy Brad at work and he says you’d be crazy not to right now, the prices always go up. I don’t like being rushed, but I also don’t like to spend time putting the facts together.

I’m really starting to get anxious. All of my friends have proven they are adults by now. How else could you buy like a 4,5 or $600,000 house? I haven’t gotten a raise in like 3 years so my friends are obviously doing something right. They always have the newest iPads and go on great vacations while I’m stuck renting, paying off student debt like a fool. Janie said she just paid all of hers off with equity(?) from a HELOC. I don’t know what that is but sounds like it beats doing it the old fashion way!

I just wish I could settle in to like an ’emerging market’ that Sandra on HGTV talks about. You know, give a 35 year old house my ‘touch’ – and really give me a sense that I’m in my own space. Maybe I could put like some stickers or really funky paint on the old water heater! Wouldn’t it be cool to like plant some flowers where those shingle thingies are supposed to be on the roof? I would so like to help the environment and I saw a green roof on HGTV one night. Totally the future.

Anyway, I’m like 2 feet away from my neighbor in my rental right now, and it would really give me a piece of mind to be at least 3-4 feet away in a new house or something. I’d like to at least have the opportunity to never meet my neighbor in a more suburban environment. Those guys, they really have it good you know. Like, just hop in the SUV and in under two hours you’re RIGHT AT WORK!

It’s so cool though, I feel like I’m in a movie set when I go visit my friends up by Aspen Landing in Calgary – so quiet, peaceful, sterile. No pesky kids out playing to worry about that’s for sure! Plus it’s so organized looking, you could virtually move into any one of these places and not know the difference!

Garth, any piece of advice would be appreciated; I just don’t want to be left behind while all my young friends seem to have it all figured out. Byeeeeeeeee!

#221 jess on 07.03.12 at 3:09 pm

Romney Invested in Medical-Waste Firm That Disposed of Aborted Fetuses, Government Documents Show
And these documents challenge Romney’s claim that he left Bain Capital in early 1999.
—By David Corn
| Mon Jul. 2, 2012 3:00 AM PDT
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/romney-bain-abortion-stericycle-sec
see Stericycle

Duality
one speaks prolife but profits off abortion?

#222 Devore on 07.03.12 at 3:15 pm

#122 MiniMe

I am reading some panic here too

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/07/canadians-deserve-more-answers.html

Good comment there from Ralph Cramdown. Where were these jokers with their indignation and quest for answers when 40 year 0 down mortgages were bailing out their butts?

There are already plenty of answers given to their questions, they simply don’t like them.

#223 Tony on 07.03.12 at 3:17 pm

You’d have to be pretty stupid to waste your time lining up to lose all your money. Those people must not like money.

#224 Tony on 07.03.12 at 3:21 pm

Re: #193 YoungProfessional on 07.03.12 at 12:59 pm

Ottawa will get pulverized. In Ontario the biggest fall will be Brampton followed by Mississauga followed by Ottawa followed by Toronto. These will all fall at least 40 percent.

#225 Tony on 07.03.12 at 3:26 pm

Certain cities will push sideways like Monkeytown Moncton. I’ll venture a guess of minus 5 percent for Halifax.

#226 Hoof-Hearted on 07.03.12 at 3:33 pm

Anyone following the LIBOR scandal ?

PRESSURE MOUNTS ON BARCLAYS’ DIAMOND OVER LIBOR SCANDAL

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-barclays-chairman-idUSBRE8600GD20120702

Pressure mounted for Barclays Plc chief executive Bob Diamond to quit after Britain’s third-biggest bank sacrificed its chairman over an interest rate rigging scandal that has dealt “a devastating blow” to its reputation.

Chairman Marcus Agius, who said “the buck stops with me”, is the first major scalp from a scandal that cost Barclays a record fine and is likely to involve more banks and embarrass financial regulators.

But the departure of Agius did not take the heat off Diamond, who was running Barclays’ investment banking arm when the interest rate manipulation took place.

“The buck in Barclays stops with Bob Diamond, and it is Bob Diamond who must accept responsibility,” said John Mann, a Labor politician and a member of a panel of lawmakers who will grill Diamond on Wednesday, and Agius on Thursday.

“He (Diamond) must resign. He’s got to go. There is no role for people like him if banking is to be trusted again in this country and if British banking is to restore its tarnished reputation in the world, which of course is of great importance to our economy,” Mann said on Sky News.

Barclays has admitted that some of its traders tried to manipulate the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), which is used worldwide as a benchmark for prices on about $350 trillion of derivatives and other financial products.

Prime Minister David Cameron has called the scandal “extremely serious”, and on Monday said he would establish a full parliamentary inquiry into the banking industry, calling for action “right across the board”.

“Last week’s events – evidencing as they do unacceptable standards of behavior within the bank – have dealt a devastating blow to Barclays reputation,” said Agius, 65.

“I am truly sorry that our customers, clients, employees and shareholders have been let down,” he said.

Britain’s Serious Fraud Office said it would decide within a month whether to press criminal charges against any of the banks under investigation.

etc etc.
==================================

Apparently 60 Banks involved, and HUGE impact , not much MSM coverage

#227 CP on 07.03.12 at 3:36 pm

#216 Oldmac… that was great :D +1!

#228 jess on 07.03.12 at 3:37 pm

Garth Turner, minister of Parliament and author of The Greater Fool, The Troubled
Future of Real Estate, is more blunt in his assessment…. Good news, though, if you’re a buyer – get them to throw in the boat,” Turner said
in a Globe and Mail interview.
western investor august 2008 b7 (1of 2)

what about that time share on the sunshine coast you spoke about?

#229 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.03.12 at 3:40 pm

#121 Inglorious Investor on 07.02.12 at 11:04 pm
Yub, the whole system’s been hijacked.

The free market system is so simple, so fair and requires no intervention EVER by governments or central banks.

All we need is sound money, market set interest rates for savings and borrowing and no government intervention in markets.

With sound money, backed by gold, the amount of money in the system is constant except for the amount added by mining, so the rate of increase is small and also constant.

Then when demand for loans is high, interest rates rise to encourage savings (future consumption) and when production is up and demand for loans is down, interest rates would drop and consumption is paid for from savings. No debt by the consumer, debt is primarily only with businesses who pay it back with production from sound investments.

Simple.

What we have today is a gamed system for the benefit of governments and banks who steal wealth through the fiat monetary system. This causes a lot of miscalculations and business problems besides it just being theft.

Unfortunately our education system and media is heavily controlled and economics has been hijacked also since WW2. Our universities globally all teach Keynesian economics which is all false and propaganda. That’s why modern economist are always wrong, they don’t know what they’re doing!

#230 Hoof-Hearted on 07.03.12 at 3:41 pm

Was driving in Vancouver today…

Saw about( 5) new homes being built with coach houses built as well.

This class of RE will be interesting to watch.

The land was probably bought at peak prices….now all the capital investment. The total package ( SFH and Coach-house) is probably underwater, and the coach-house is extra debt as opposed to revenue. aka Bad investment.

#231 Tony on 07.03.12 at 3:43 pm

Re: #216 Oldmac on 07.03.12 at 2:49 pm

Are you joking or being serious?
You know it i know and everyone in the entire world knows it Canada is the next real estate market to crash. The crash could be worst than that in America only time will tell. This is what you do wait one year and keep reading in the newspapers about the soaring bankruptcy rate and foreclosure rate. That equates into falling housing prices 100 percent of the time.

#232 ANONYMOUS on 07.03.12 at 3:53 pm

THERE WILL BE NO HOUSING FALL if everyone is earning a 9-figure salary in their jobs.

#233 Timbo on 07.03.12 at 4:05 pm

#122 MiniMe

That was a great link. The smell of angry desperate bargaining has truly begun.

hats off to you………..

#234 daystar on 07.03.12 at 4:08 pm

As RBC’s head of banking told a Globe reporter, “This is not like turning a Ferrari. This is like a big ship. And it takes a while to turn. And sometimes if you over steer, you can’t re-steer the other way.” – Gordon Nixon

He really earned his $11.7 mil last year didn’t he? If it wasn’t for him, we couldn’t have the bloated RE/credit bubble we see today. Does he even have a masters degree? Nope, bachelor of commerce.

What Gordon does have is the order of Canada (as well as the order of Ontario). Thats what Canadians do for the creators of Canada’s own RE/credit bubble, we give them presigious awards for being really good citizens:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Nixon

Gordon isn’t alone. Edmund Clark, bachelors degree in Arts and Masters in Economics, professional career bar none stellar, running a bank that has more assets than any other in Canada and recogized of course, with the order of Canada award. Thanks Edmund, for your wonderful RE/credit bubble contributions. The $15 million you made was worth every penny with your peers, I’m sure:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edmund_Clark

Richard Waugh, the CEO of the Bank of Nova Scotia, sure knows how to treat his customers with 6.29% rates on 10 year loans. No one had to tell him how CMHC holders of insurance have to requalify under new regs if they switch banks. Why wouldn’t Richard do this knowing what sage Bernanke knows in terms of lengthening bond maturities of high leverage with cheap rates to a more “suitable” time. Way to look out for your shareholders, Richard. (customers, not so much)

With an MBA and doctors of Law degree, Richard knew how to give his salary a 29% raise in recessionary 09’… for the modest amount of $9.7 million. Richard doesn’t have the prestigous “order of Canada” award but it likely will for his efforts in giving Canada the fastest growing credit bubble Canada has ever known:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_E._Waugh

Gerald T. McCaughey, what can we say about our CIBC’s CEO. Having made $6.24 mil in 09′, Gerald seemed fit to give himself a more “perspective” filled raise with a mere 50% bump to $9.34 million last year. Gerald’s been CEO since August of 05′, after all. Why wouldn’t leadership of the runt of the the big 5 be worth it? With stewardship steering CIBC towards assets of over 50% of RE, its money well earned according to their corporate board. He’s got a bachelor of commerce, after all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_T._McCaughey

Bill Down of the BoC comes late to the game. Having taken over as CEO of BMO in March of 07′, his calls on mortgage wars to entice buyers with ultra low teaser rates has entertained us all. Still, with Canada’s RE/credit bubble, Bill has played his part and for that, Bill made $9.8 million in 2010, a mere 28% increase for his creative, competitive nature:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/28/bankofmontreal-ceo-idUSN2825562520110228

Louis Vachon comes late as well, only having been a CEO with the National Bank of Canada since June of 07′. Having only made a prudent $8.4 million in 2011, up from $5.7 million the year before, why would anyone think a 50% increase in pay from the year before as excessive? Don’t shareholders, taxpayers and customers know just how hard this man has worked to grow credit in Canada?

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/National+Bank+president+Louis+Vachon+roasted+salary/6410848/story.html

Everything is a record thanks to our aforementioned. Record home valuations, record household debt, record consumer debt, record corporate debt, record credit bubbles, a record housing bubble, record CEO pay… record “entitlements”. We owe them so much credit:

http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/2012/04/us-and-canada-household-debt-gdp-and.html

#235 Tkid on 07.03.12 at 4:09 pm

To everyone who commented on the hubba-hubba aspect of the blog photo: that is not a pic of a topless woman. From the angle of the camera there should be at least a small portion of side-breast in the pic and there is not. This either the flattest chested woman I have ever seen or a snapshot of a man wih long hair.

Ergo, the photo is one of The Honourable Turner’s classic misdirections – we are expecting one thing but will get the unexpected if we are not prepared.

#236 Westernman on 07.03.12 at 4:17 pm

daystar @ # 197,
Maybe you should move to Russia if you don’t like the capitalist system… I hear it’s a socialist paradise…
You sound like one of those OWS hobos…

#237 LP on 07.03.12 at 4:45 pm

#209CP on 07.03.12 at 2:16 pm

It was a fact when my daughter qualified, though a few years ago. You’re right, I should have checked for an update and I’m sorry I didn’t.

And, no, I’ve never been a teacher.

#238 Deano on 07.03.12 at 4:47 pm

#209 CP. Just try and get a teaching job in Ontario with a 3 year degree. It won’t happen. It was fine at one time, but educational inflation has changed this.

If you’re going to spout, make sure you know what you’re talking about.

For the record, I’m a teacher. With prep, marking and extra-curricular I work 50 hours a week on average. I teach 40 weeks a year. For those of you who didn’t pass math class, that’s the same as working 40 hours a week for 50 weeks of the year. Not every teacher works like this, but the vast majority do, with some putting in several more hours per week than I do.

I have the equivalent of 7 years of university and it took me until the age of 37 to pay for it. I supply taught for 4 years, making on average about 25k a year. I lived a very small life financially, I can assure you. This existence is common for teachers of my generation.

I make 73k a year after 10 years of teaching (which includes my years supply teaching). My take home pay is about 850 a week. I live in a 200k home and drive an old paid-for car. My wife is a teacher as well (that’s how we met). She makes 63k a year. She holds an MSC from King’s College UK and was a well paid researcher and instructor before becoming a teacher. She often works until midnight and cries over the crap kids have to go through.

Many teachers of my generation don’t believe they’ll see a decent pension, as we know we’re funding the 40 year retirements of our older colleagues. We also know it’s unlikely that we’ll see the top pay (94k) for very long in our careers, if we ever see it. We save 20% of our take home pay in order to be prudent.

Financial literacy is an area of focus of the ministry currently. I teach financial literacy as part of my career studies classes and I have since my first year teaching. Many teachers I know are very savvy with their money, others not so much. I worked in banking before teaching, it was the same there.

I hope this has given a little insight into teachers in Ontario (can’t speak for the rest of Canada). We’re not perfect and our unions are often run by boobs. The one thing all teachers have in common is the target on their back, placed there by all of the a$$hats on the internet.

I’m done, sorry for bringing it up again Garth.

#239 jwkimba on 07.03.12 at 5:02 pm

@ #85 Toronto_ca. Your advice is WORSE than the financial advice given in the article you quoted.

TFSA can be stocked with 20k, each, right now. That’s 40k and another 10k/year per couple. And within your TFSA you can buy ANYTHING you can get for your RRSP, or investment plans, like whatever ETF floats your boat. (Where did you get the 1% concept? Mine is running aroun 6.5%…thats a nice bonus of ~2500/yr).

And they can be cashed out anytime wih zero tax consqeuences. No reporting. No gains. No losses. Quick. Easy.

As a short term 1-3 year savings strategy for a downpayment TFSA simply can not be beat.

Sorry for the rant…

#240 brainsail on 07.03.12 at 5:11 pm

#222 Hoof-Hearted

“Anyone following the LIBOR scandal ?”

I was wondering the same thing but banking policies, regulations, and practices are way over my head. Then I read the following.

“Up to 20 banks around the world are being investigated by regulators over alleged rigging of Libor or its equivalent in other countries, such as the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (Tibor).”

“Meanwhile, dozens of financial firms from America, Canada, Europe and Japan, and all of Britain’s big lenders, have been named in legal claims lodged in US courts where investors are claiming losses from the rate-rigging scandal.”

“With the total amount of financial contracts pegged to Libor and similar rates estimated at £230 trillion, the potential for claims is enormous.”

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2166958/Libor-scandal-Every-bank-kind-trick-There-come.html#ixzz1zazIuSpg

#241 DM in C on 07.03.12 at 5:56 pm

Calgary Herald is amusing today — one quick sale over asking and it’s 2007 all over again. What’s funny is they don’t mention what happened in 2008.

Judging by the comments, the online community doesn’t buy it. But the hard copy readers might.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Calgary+house+sale+activity+sparks+memories+2007/6875505/story.html

#242 KW T800 on 07.03.12 at 6:01 pm

The big problem is quite a few of the areas in British Columbia we have become a one industry town it is called “Realestate”. People thought this was the savior, money was no issue. Today money is the issue nobody has any left.

Currently where I’am construction is dead what is being built are small projects or projects still being completed. New house construction is non existant nobody can afford it or people are really scared to spend money.

The good days are over with I see years of nothing happening. Many guys that are in the career trades their careers have gone down the toilet. People that have been in the construction industry are finished.

Going to be interesting to see what happens I know it isn’t going to be good.

#243 espressobob on 07.03.12 at 6:10 pm

Real Estate is a bust,DUH. Oil was at 146 a barrel & lets not even touch Nortel. Please Garth post some Investing thoughts. Some of us actually have an RRSP, TFSA & other investng accounts. I hate watching cattle going to slaughter. What to do with money? Give some insight.

#244 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.03.12 at 6:15 pm

#139 BigAl (Original) on 07.03.12 at 12:54 am
That’s a long list of problems but it doesn’t change the fact that’s what’s needed is competition and free markets so you can dump the bad providers and announce it to the world how bad they were. They will care what you say and how they perform or someone else will.

As far as being forced to use a private sector travel agent, that seems a little fishy. Maybe he got the contract by knowing someone in government. And why was the government not letting you use who ever you wanted. It sounds like a government problem, not private sector since the travel agent must be compensated for services whether you could have done it yourself cheaper/better or not.

#245 Mike Rotch on 07.03.12 at 6:16 pm

Daystar:
…………..I have to laugh, a teacher puts in the same hours as a banker but gets an extra hour a day of homework (they don’t get paid for) with all the extra curriculars (they don’t get paid for) and yet a banker, like these guys who profit the most off of bloated RE/credit bubbles that are about to evaporate the middle class don’t get a mention…………….

Try comparing apples to apples.

The “bankers” that are paid considerably higher salaries than teachers are most likely doing a specialized job that not everyone with a humanities B.A. + B.Ed. could hack.

I’m certain that most of that lot are also putting in a damned sight more effort than 9 months a year of ~35 hours in class/prep + extra-curricular + homework for 39 weeks a year.

Anyway, enough of this shit. No matter how much I vent, I’m not going to be able to reduce the education bill…….I am here to see opinions on how to invest to make me more money!

#246 Increasing that 1% on 07.03.12 at 6:18 pm

#202,#206 Mr Buyer

Make no major decision, stay where you are, get some counselling, and Step—-Away—from–This-Blog

#247 jess on 07.03.12 at 6:27 pm

Big Four Auditors and Jury Trials: Not In The U.S.
You have to go outside of the US to see a trial of a Big Four audit firm to know what I’m talking about. Australia’s Centro case against PwC or Canada’s Nortel case where Deloitte partners testified recently tell you everything you need to know about why the Big Four will settle every time. Rather than have a jury and the public hear and see the pathetic state of the audit profession, its inability to stop executives who want to cheat, and its unwillingness to acknowledge liability as a firm when it screws up, the firms will reach into their seemingly bottomless pockets and pay up
http://retheauditors.com/

===
The Merry go around
You couldn’t make it up – new chair of HMRC is former KPMG senior …www.taxresearch.org.uk/…/you-couldnt-make-it-up-new-chair-of-h…You +1’d this publicly. Undo
13 hours ago – The KPMG who signed off a bank’s accounts astrue and fair in 2008 knowing it was bust, as they admitted to the House of Lords. The KPMG …

#248 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.03.12 at 6:30 pm

#159 Herb on 07.03.12 at 8:50 am

#123 Blue Monster,

what “market forces”? The ideals you list, or the elimination of competition, the greed, and ambition for growth that are the operative ones? I’d kind of like to keep those out of “non-productive” essential services.
—-
I want private sector competition and profit motive, not the elimination of it, that’s what we’re missing. A greedy business man is driven by his greed to serve his customers and grow his business. His greed incentivizes him to improve his product/service and lower his costs.

In the public sector there are no incentives to improve service and lower costs and they lose nothing when the customer is poorly serviced or dies. It’s actually better so they can take more breaks and protest for a compensation increase.

Food is an essential product/service and we don’t let the government run our food production and distribution. We let private sector businesses run it in a semi-free trade, for profit environment where the consumer chooses where to shop and what to buy and has lots of selection at competitive prices.

We don’t have a free market in education and healthcare. They’re bloated, wasteful, greedy, self-serving monopolies that are running costs through the roof while turning out millions of misinformed dunces who will hopefully drop dead at the first sign of illness.

#249 zidartha on 07.03.12 at 6:31 pm

Great news ‘flash’!

http://qkme.me/3pykkh

#250 cynically on 07.03.12 at 6:36 pm

A couple of observations – #74 Let’s get back to our roots of being creators of innovative products………. Canada has never been known as a creator or innovator but has always been a copier and user. It’s our “cousins” below the border who create and innovate. It all goes back to 1776 when they showed their independence from you know who and Canada didn’t and still hasn’t to this day. #118 The great American – methinks he’s on the moonshine again. #121 Inglorious Investor – AMEN!

#251 Elmer on 07.03.12 at 7:00 pm

Garth here’s a woman who could really use your advice. Her deadbeat husband left her and all she has left is a $1.2 million house with an 800k mortgage and she’s nearing bankruptcy.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1220096–deadbeat-dad-flees-to-philippines-leaving-four-kids-without-support

#252 Harry Palms on 07.03.12 at 7:24 pm

@197 Daystar:

………….I have to laugh, a teacher puts in the same hours as a banker but gets an extra hour a day of homework (they don’t get paid for) with all the extra curriculars (they don’t get paid for) and yet a banker, like these guys who profit the most off…………..

If you’re going to be a teacher apologist, try to compare apples to apples.

I’ll take the teacher at $93K per year, plus a nice round number of $15K per year assumed pension contribution by employer (it’s probably more than this, but let’s not fight over the specifics).

So, what is the profile of a “banker” who earns compensation package considerably higher than that of a teacher, say in the $120K and up range?

I’d guess that in many cases:

-it’s either someone who has multiple staff reporting to them, or who is responsible for dealing with hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars.

-it’s a specialist role that has a far smaller “qualified candidate” pool than teaching (e.g. lots can earn a humanities B.A. + one year supplemental undergrad degree. Far fewer can carry out hardcore numerical analysis of financials and use that analysis to make business decisions involving $millions….)

-The “banker” who is earning large, probably works a damned site more than 39 weeks per year worth of 35h per week class/yard duty/prep + extra curricular + homework. Most salaried tax slaves in the private sector put in more than this. Well compensated ones most of all.

Again, I’m not debating who is worth what, but I am asserting that teachers have a pretty good package given their quals and required effort.

Enough of this crap……..I’m here for the G-man’s advice on how to make ME richer.

#253 A in Vancouver on 07.03.12 at 7:28 pm

I know some people in Vancouver that put 4 units in a small 33 feet lot house. Is that legal?

Some Rich Chinese I know live in luxury house but claim Government welfare and benefit. Nobody doubts it.

#254 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.03.12 at 7:34 pm

#189 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 12:46 pm

#123 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.02.12 at 11:09 pm
#146 Frank le skank on 07.02.12 at 8:05 pm
all the more reason to privatize them to bring market forces to bare.
……………………………………………………………
You sir and your ilk are THE problem. Market forces have not and never will mean better, stronger, faster but rather more profit for less service.

——
This must be bring out the dunces day today.

What part of free markets to you hate. The part where individuals or groups of people and even corporations are free to open businesses to provide products and services or the part where consumers are free to patronize them or not under their own free will?

How did all the dumb humans ever survive without massive government to control everything? Oh dear.

#255 IB on 07.03.12 at 7:36 pm

This is a very interesting article titled “The ‘Manhattanization’ of Toronto will change family-housing dreams”.

Brad Lamb is quoted below.

Source: http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/the–manhattanization–of-toronto-will-change-family-housing-dreams.html

The housing dreams of families wanting to live in central Toronto will undergo a sea change in the coming decade as the supply of detached homes dwindles and the remaining ones soar in price, real estate experts say.
The pressure is already mounting with single-family homes being snatched up in fierce bidding wars for tens of thousands of dollars — and in a few cases for $200,000 or more — over asking, often with no conditions attached to the offers to purchase.
Along with a shrinking stock, prices for single detached homes and townhomes are projected to go up 30 to 50 per cent in the next decade, while condo prices are expected to rise only moderately or stay flat as the oversupply in that market continues to grow.
That scenario effectively eclipses ordinary families out of the market, making condo living the default housing option for those who want to remain in the core.
It’s a phenomenon real estate mogul Brad Lamb refers to as the “Manhattanization” of Toronto.
“In New York City, even if you’re an investment banker making $1 million a year, you still can’t afford to buy a house in Manhattan, so you’re buying a condo,” says Lamb.
It’s the same phenomenon, he says, that you see in other big cities of the world, such as Hong Kong, Tokyo, London and Paris.
“If you want to live in central Toronto, you’re going to have to live in a condo. Families will be forced to buy into high-density living. It’s the natural evolution of a city,” says Lamb who develops condo projects in Toronto, Ottawa and Calgary.

[More from CBC: Toronto condo boom changing city’s landscape]
Shift in expectations
Real estate newsletter editor Ben Myers says the transition to condo life will require a change in mindset for families.
For families, the transition to condo life will require a change in mindset and shift in expectations to vertical living in a smaller space, says Ben Myers, editor and vice-president at Urbanation, a real estate newsletter.
It’s a mindset that new Canadians coming here from cities like Hong Kong, Singapore and Mumbai are used to and have no problems with, he adds.
“It’s more the Canadian mindset where you have to have a piece of property, fenced in with a yard and a garage.”
Toronto’s condo boom
Toronto has 132 highrise buildings, defined as between 12 to 40 floors, under construction, according to a German research company that tracks data on multi-storey buildings.
Mexico City is second with 88 and New York City is third with 86. Rounding out the top five are Chicago, which is building 17 high-rises and Miami with 16.
With 1, 875 completed high rises and skyscrapers, Toronto is second only to New York City, which has more than 4,000, and ranks just ahead of Mexico City and Chicago.
-Source: Emporis
[More from CBC: Toronto’s new condo mix]
Culturally and economically, Torontonians haven’t arrived at the Manhattan scenario — yet, says John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Real Estate Brokerage.
“You can’t buy a house in New York City or Hong Kong. It’s so expensive, it’s just not an option, but in Toronto we do still have affordable houses.”
Buyers can get a freehold house for around $500,000 if they’re prepared to go further east on Danforth Avenue or further west along Bloor Street and lower their expectations in terms of finishes, according to Pasalis.
“We’re at least a decade away before families truly cannot afford houses in Toronto and have to start considering condos as an option,” he says.
Size going to be an issue
With Toronto building more highrises than anywhere else in North America, local buyers might think they have plenty of options in terms of buying condos.
About 53,000 new condo units are due to be completed in Toronto over the next 18 months alone.
However, even when families do adjust their expectations and mindsets to embrace condo living, they will come up against a wall over a lack of larger units roomy enough to accommodate a growing family of any size, experts say.
Of the 6,005 condos ready for occupancy this year in the former city of Toronto, 63 per cent are studios, one-bedrooms or one-bedrooms plus den. The average size is 822 square feet, according to a report by Urbanation
Meanwhile, of 9,090 condos slated for completion in 2014, 67 per cent are studios, one-bedroom units, or one-bedroom plus dens. The average size of all these units is only 695 square feet.
The reason for this is that, typically, developers have to sell 60 to 80 per cent of their units before they can secure bank financing to start construction, so they’re building what sells now — small units for singles and young couples who want to be urban dwellers.
“There’s just no demand for three-bedroom condos downtown. Those units sit on the market a long time,” says Pasalis.
Adds Myers, “the developers in the downtown market are catering their product to investors, who are interested in smaller units that are easier to rent or flip. The larger the unit, the longer it takes to rent out or sell.”
[More from CBC: Uncertain fate for Vancouver real estate prices]
A looming glut in ‘micro’ units
But today’s trend may well lead to a glut of “micro” units and a looming housing crunch for families who will eventually want to live in condos.
Toronto city Coun. Adam Vaughan, for one, is worried about what he calls the “explosion” of single occupancy units in the downtown core.
“Family housing has to be in all parts of Toronto not just in the suburbs,” he says. “If all we do is build this type of housing, we’ll just delay sprawl for another generation and create a simplistic monoculture downtown.”
Toronto city Coun. Adam Vaughan is pushing developers to build more family housing in his downtown ward.
Vaughan is pushing developers to build more family housing in his downtown ward with some success — more than 600 units of housing with three or more bedrooms have been constructed or approved in the last four years.
“I appreciate that developers are nervous about building what they can sell,” he says, “but we can’t allow market forces to do city planning.”
The city does offer incentives to developers by approving additional height and density for their projects in exchange for their building larger family-friendly units, as well as condos with knockout panels, which can be combined to make larger suites in the future, and units designed for disabled residents.
“Diversity keeps the downtown core vibrant. Diversity is accommodating different family configurations and different economic price points,” says Vaughan.
For his part, Lamb agreed to build 30 three-bedroom units in his 300-unit 32-storey King Charlotte project at King Street east and Spadina in order to get it approved.

[More from CBC: Okanagan leads fall in B.C. real estate values]
Tough sell
But so far, only seven of the 1,000-square-foot three-bedroom condos, priced at under $600,000, have sold.
“They’re a tough sell,” says Lamb. “We’ve had to offer all kinds of incentives. It’s just not what people want right now. It’s a shame.”
Acceptance of condo life has gone through several phases, says Lamb who has been selling them since 1988.
When he started, Lamb recalls that people “turned their noses up at condos,” seeing them as an inferior housing option.
Real estate mogul Brad Lamb says that anyone wanting to live in central Toronto will have to live in a condo.
Then, through the condo boom of 2000 to 2012, builders enticed young buyers and investors with tiny “super highly-stylized Prada shoe apartments,” by selling a hip, downtown lifestyle.
Twenty years ago, studio condos — units without bedrooms — were typically 600 square feet. Today they’re more likely to be half that size at 300 square feet.
Lamb predicts the next wave of condo building will reverse the trend to pint-sized units.
“As the city matures, and there is no room for single family homes and the price gap between them and condos grows, that gap will be filled with larger, more luxurious condo units that resemble small homes.”

#256 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.03.12 at 7:39 pm

FYI all you sun drenched Canadians out there!
Its 4:35pm July 3rd Vancouver time and its been raining all day and its POURING out as I type !
Best Place On Erf!
Did I also mention it was 11 degrees this morning at 9am?
i could see my breath !!!!!!

But the sun is coming…….. soon………

#257 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.03.12 at 7:59 pm

#222 Hoof-Hearted — “He (Diamond) must resign. He’s got to go.” — Another fine capesgoat to chew on! Heck, the BoE must have somebody who (for a nice back-handed compliment) can be thrown over Niagara Falls!
*
The problem I have with the title of this song — Lunatic Fringe (live) — is whether to apply it to us bloggers here, or to place it on the giant weenie shoulders of men such as BPOE and Mikey the Realtor. It’s just lotsa fun, anyway, so take it away boys!
*
Dictatorship “JPMorgan has the foodstamp/EBT cards covered. Next step, Goldman Sachs in charge of National DMV?”, and this. Keep in mind that 77% of JPM’s income comes straight from taxpayers via the feds.; Bank Fraud (Libor) Who were the big losers? Iran, Economic Collapse and WW3 All relatively on schedule, except SArabia has a lot of infighting in their own backyard, and Iraq says no If SArabia stops their flow of oil to the west, Iran shuts off the SoH we’re pretty much up Shit Street! Soaring food prices due to heat? Where’s HAARP? IMF and US “Looking at the numbers, no one in their right mind can begin to talk about the US economy being “on the road to recovery”. wrh.com. Business, corporate profits, yes. Citizens, no; Carpooling in LA Fleecing the feds. and public, keeping the cash for themselves.
*
Austria 1938, US 2012? “Everyone thinks that Hitler just rolled in with his tanks and took Austria by force.” (Wrong.); Family Ties “The timing of this internecine family squabble couldn’t be worse for Israeli and US plans against Iran. If for any reason Saudi oil is off the market in a time of transition, or possibly even revolution (the House of Saud is not necessarily loved by the Saudi people) it means that the US and Israel will not be able move forward successfully with an attack against Iran.” wrh.com, and Fictitous Enemies NATO gearing up for war with Russia? China and Russia Tell the west to take a hike; EMP Burst Interesting question; Decadent West The consequences of their present actions are leading to their downfall; Persian Gulf War, dammit! Garlic as an antibiotic, and Superfoods; Windows XP Works just fine for me, so I’m not gonna upgrade.

#258 Canadian Watchdog on 07.03.12 at 8:00 pm

Alas, the condo market is so dead that even Red Pin’s brokers started listing on Kijiji. http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-theredpin-real-estate-condos-for-sale-W0QQCatIdZ643QQKeywordZtheredpinQQisSearchFormZtrue

#259 American Werewolf in BC on 07.03.12 at 8:03 pm

#225 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on
The free market system is so simple, so fair and requires no intervention EVER by governments or central banks.

======

While it is true that the free market has caused no real world harm, that is because it has not ever existed outside of a naive textbook. Its a theoretical fantasy that conservative peoples’ invisible hand jerks them off to.

If a true “free market” ever existed, the prosperous would simply use their wealth to buy governments, such that the state would tip the balance in their favor (sound familiar?). In fact, the “free market” can truly only exist in total anarchy where there are no politicians to buy–a few places in Africa are reminiscent.

Frankly, its a doctrine of faith–which completely ignores human irrationality–that I can take no seriously than the people who preach about how many virgins they will receive in heaven. If your ideal has no chance of ever being implemented in reality, than its useless pillow talk for kinky capitalists that has no place in the real world. Keep it in the closet please.

#260 elchavo on 07.03.12 at 8:08 pm

No more 30 year mortgage but interest rates will stay low.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/03/bank-of-canada-likely-to-hold-interest-rates-until-july-2013-bmo/

Does it make any difference now?

#261 Smoking Man on 07.03.12 at 8:19 pm

#215 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 07.03.12 at 2:46 pm

Where’s Smoking Man ?
………………………………………………………..
Mini Vacation &
Boating Season Dude.

#262 TurnerNation on 07.03.12 at 8:24 pm

#113blase on 07.02.12 at 10:40 pm

Is that North or South Korea? :-)

#263 Tony on 07.03.12 at 8:40 pm

Re: #49 Tim on 07.02.12 at 6:45 pm

I’ve seen walk in closets larger than 600 square feet.

#264 Grooby. on 07.03.12 at 9:13 pm

#146 Ivan, woper_holic,

If you truly believe they work 100-160 days, you obviously don’t know anything about teaching. That’s ‘total teaching days’, not time spent on lesson plans, report cards, PTIs, and the many other activities that are not a part of the ‘100-160’ days.

The teachers I know do not have any time off during spring break or Christmas break. Too busy preparing for the next session. Not to mention at least one day every weekend, plus most evenings.

When was the last time you tried to manage 30 children at once? You think they actually do the prep work during their work hours?

Ignorance is bliss; don’t let reality get in the way of a good insult. I sincerely hope your children have more respect for their teachers than you do. Learning respect starts at home, so I doubt it.

Change the damn channel already. — Garth

#265 John on 07.03.12 at 9:19 pm

Mr Buyer wrote:

“I have never been so conscious of the deep fear I carry and the accompanying sense of inadequacy. I truly do not see a way forward or how to make things okay. ”
——-

Excellent post. This is the healthy flip side of control madness. If you look at things in a simple way, a lot of the mess and focus of Canadian society is based on drowning out a solid foundation. Your point of view sounds like a strong base.

Why?

Because with what you’re saying, people turn to organic human community and come out of that horrible, de-gendered Canadian “one to a box” Canadian culture. There are redeeming aspects of all cultures of course
( Canada is no exception), but the depth is collectively white-washed. For fear and control reasons.

That’s why Goldman Sachs et al got such a laydown hand with Canada.

Nonetheless, your post is pretty encouraging.

#266 blase on 07.03.12 at 9:20 pm

Mr Buyer,

I’m planning on returning soon after a long haul in a central city in Korea (40 min by KTX, not subway)

I see your dilemma, I’m going through similar thinking.

One thing I’m doing is studying French. Only 9% of Canadian anglophones can speak it. Just do a quick job search to see how many employers are looking for French speakers. It is a quick way to bud in front of many workers. I figure a year of study plus maybe 3-6 months in Quebec will get my French high enough to qualify for most jobs.

If you want a quick and easy way to get a job that pays $50K+, get a rig truck drivers licence. Lots of jobs advertised for these, women are basically not part of the industry for the most part, and if you are drug-free and dependable, you will soon be invaluable to them.

Now, take action and stop stressing.

“Life by the inch is a cynch,

Life by the yard is hard.”

#267 Hoof-Hearted on 07.03.12 at 9:32 pm

#236 brainsail on 07.03.12 at 5:11 pm

re LIBOR scandal…

According to some wags…..it is huge….the debt is 10X’s what all Global Assets combined are worth.

It is being called a huge Global ponzi scheme to make banks appear solvent….

#268 oslec on 07.03.12 at 9:35 pm

#227 Tony on 07.03.12 at 3:43 pm

Re: #216 Oldmac on 07.03.12 at 2:49 pm

Are you joking or being serious?
________________________________________
I Think he is “Seriously Joking.” D-)..

#269 Nemesis on 07.03.12 at 9:47 pm

Kudos, OldPol. LeaderIllustration. Right UpThere with GI Joe ActionFigures Bag&Pose with TrophySquirrel.

Going with the obverse view would have been satisfying on a transient level… but as depicted, we can put our CollectiveImagination to work… much like the RadioPlays of Yore… NiceOne, GT.

#270 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.03.12 at 9:52 pm

#253 American Werewolf in BC on 07.03.12 at 8:03 pm

Oh what a bad wolf; what ideas you have, and so dramatic too!

Markets exist all around us, some have a lot of government influence to the point of being practical monopolies while others are less controlled and influenced.

Government needs to forbid itself or limit itself, meaning we the people need a Constitution that limits the government’s role and action in the economy. Like the USA had which is now nearly destroyed (Happy Independence Day!) since their supreme court is not upholding it very well.

Just because we don’t have 100% free markets in every aspect of the economy doesn’t mean we shouldn’t strive to achieve the best we can. We are hardly doing a good job these days and I”m sure we could do much better.

Don’t you want to try? You give up so easy?
What’s left of the free market still provides everything that surrounds you, no? Where did you get your computer? The Soviet Union?

Now cheer up.

#271 Hoof-Hearted on 07.03.12 at 9:54 pm

Also: Re Obamacare

Some anecdotes from US Media.

It is really a tax meant to help bailout bankers. In addition, a special tax on Home Sales will also be directed to fund Obamacare.

#272 Nemesis on 07.03.12 at 9:57 pm

For Nostra… as I know you truly love History… That whole Austria ‘thang’ (aka Anschluss) was referred to by contemporaries as “Blumenkrieg (war of flowers)”…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss#German_troops_march_into_Austria

PS – As ever, ThankYou! for your entertaining aggregation of the Fringe (and NotSoFringe)…

#273 Toronto_CA on 07.03.12 at 10:02 pm

@#235 jwkimba – you’re a goddamn moron. I don’t think anyone should earn 1% in their TFSA – the person who wrote the article thinks that.

Unless you’re saying that putting house downpayment funds in equities is a good idea…which is a bit ludicrous.

I said that young people should hold ETFs and diversify in their TFSA for long term, NOT earn 1% by sticking their house downpayment savings in it which is what the article said.

Yes, I do believe that house downpayments should be liquid and safe and in high yield savings if you plan to buy in the next few years – equities are too volatile and GICs don’t earn enough for their lack of liquidity these days. If you think that’s bad advice, you’re too great a fool even for this blog…

#274 jwkimba on 07.03.12 at 10:32 pm

@ Toronto_CA

Here is the ENTIRE reference to TFSA in the linked article:

“For younger people looking to get into the market, Spitters suggests being patient and building up as much of a down payment as possible by maxing out tax-free savings accounts.

The numbers ‘1’ and the symbol ‘%’ do not appear anywherr in the article.

If by calling me moron you really meant to say ‘someone who can actually read’ than I accept
Nice try and thanks for the compliment!!

#275 45north on 07.03.12 at 10:32 pm

Mr. Buyer: It is easy to imagine how people run head long off cliffs of various forms rather than become comfortable with such feelings.

to go or to stay, you gotta decide, reminds me in a way of the character Creighton Bernette played by John Goodman in the TV series Treme. In the series Creighton Bernette was a university professor who was under contract to write a book and of course the obvious natural thing would be to write about Hurricane Katrina – which had destroyed New Orleans. He just couldn’t put his thoughts on paper and he killed himself.

I don’t have a job for you but I feel that you should be here in Canada.

#276 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 10:50 pm

#248 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 07.03.12 at 7:34 pm
#189 Mr Buyer on 07.03.12 at 12:46 pm

This must be bring out the dunces day today.

What part of free markets to you hate
………………………………………………………….
I do not hate the idea of free markets any more than I hate Grimm’s Fairy Tales (which I do not hate, they are nice stories really). If you like to live in fairy tales then enjoy yourself. There has likely never been free markets ever in history (except possibly for brief periods in and around wars and similar upheavals and those free markets are nicely described by the term profiteering).

#277 American Werewolf in BC on 07.03.12 at 11:34 pm

#271 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on ave 100% free markets in every aspect of the economy doesn’t mean we shouldn’t strive to achieve the best we can.

=============

We shouldn’t strive to achieve them because 1) they are unachievable and 2) since they are not achievable, their benefits are not testable hypotheses, and therefore, the notion of their “goodness” is without grounds.

IOW, they are nothing more than a fantasy that children shouldn’t even bother to be bored with.

#278 Been there Done that Got the T-Shirt on 07.04.12 at 12:36 am

@#206 Mr. Buyer – I used to be a warrior but now I am like an old man coming to grips with utter defeat that is finally overtaking me despite my heroic life long run from it…..

Your msg resonated deep inside Mr. B. as I think it succinctly identifies what the “sheeple” will very soon come to realize.
=====================================
@261 blase
I see your dilemma, I’m going through similar thinking.

IMHO why Mr. Buyer, myself and perhaps many others “lay awake at night” is this runs much, much deeper. I’m an engineer (p.eng.) and initially set the family up financially, but a divorce happened that ten years later I’m still trying to get out of the hole financially. I went to China, in 2003, and returned to Hongcouver, in 2008 and have only been able to find work in warehouses, and mall kiosks making min wage. Two months ago, I was very fortunate to get a warehouse jobs making $16/hr (I’m living like a king…do you realize what a difference $6/hr makes!!). Planning for the future is nigh impossible when all you have just pays the hydro, phone, internet and rent (one bedroom – three people) and you start to get sick because you can’t afford the right foods (the only reason we have the phone and internet is for finding work – library you can only use the internet for one hr/day).
Where I’m working, there is a single parent that drank the Koolaid and owns a condo in Maple Ridge. They are already 30% under what they bought it for, and their condo fees have gone up 100% since buying. Every month when it comes time to pay the condo fees, they sit around the table to decide if they should pay or let the process start by letting the strata council take out a lien.
Where I work, the owner (plumbing/restoration/flood/fire business- these things are recession proof ) told me that in 40 years he’s never seen business this bad.
This isn’t a dilemma Mr. Blase.
To all of the blog dogs, and Garth, on this pathetic blog, thank you all for inspiration and words of wisdom.

#279 daystar on 07.04.12 at 3:09 am

#252 Harry Palms on 07.03.12 at 7:24 pm

Right you are, Harry. With all your guesses and assumptions, I doubt that you do want to debate.

#245 Mike Rotch on 07.03.12 at 6:16 pm

So you are defending the CEO salaries of our big six banks are you, they are that special? Where do you think they got their degrees from Mike, a bank?

#236 Westernman on 07.03.12 at 4:17 pm

WTF does Russia have to do with greedy CEO’s ripping off the shareholder by way of screwing their own customer base over the long term with the creation of unsustainable credit bubbles for some lame assed effort to justify their appetite for greed, is that too difficult a concept to grasp?

#280 Housing sales down to 10-year low in Vancouver – media reports | CityHallWatch: Tools for engagement in Vancouver city decisions, creating our future. on 07.05.12 at 1:49 pm

[…] buying and selling (see video here). Garth Turner in his blog greaterfool.ca wrote in his July 2nd article that “The real estate market everywhere will be in turmoil by […]

#281 Vancouver Mortgage Broker on 07.05.12 at 11:05 pm

Sure hope that ship he’s referring to isn’t the Costa Concordia =(