Pass the fork

When the producer came on the line seconds before we went live he said, “We found a real estate broker to debate you. Have fun.” Perfect, I thought. Six a.m., no coffee yet and now some wounded realtor’s hot to rip my lungs out.

But three minutes later I heard another story, as we set into last week’s big rule changes on a radio show. Yes this market needs to be chilled. Speculation’s gotta be addressed. Condos are dangerous. A million doesn’t buy much. This will definitely have an impact.

Back in March, you might recall, when I said 30-year mortgages were endangered and the bank regulator would trash cash-backs and up the hurdle for virgins, it was open season on this pathetic blog. Well, it’s all changed since then. The federal government now has a deflationary position on housing after more than a year of warning people about debt failed.

Yeah, the mortgage brokers are moaning and quivering, but lots of front-line agents and brokers clearly understand that pricking the gasbag is now in everyone’s long-term interest. In fact, what’s just happened will hasten the demise of scuzzy no-money-down home finance guys who played a role in setting up real estate for a generational decline. Now that big banks will be prohibited from handing out free down payments when they fund a mortgage, you can kiss 100% financing forever goodbye. Then gargle.

I’ve shown a few times over recent months how it is impossible, given current condo valuations in Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver or Calgary, to own a unit for less than renting – even with the lowest interest rates in history. But it’s been the juxtaposition of those cheap mortgages with the bank’s cash-backs that lured so many dewy and unsuspecting young couples into buying a place soon to become a wealth trap.

Take Vancouver as an example, where even CMHC has to admit the obvious. “Despite lower condominium prices,” it says in a recent report, “the monthly cost of carrying a mortgage remains higher than the monthly cost of renting. The gap between the cost of homeownership and renting a condominium in Vancouver was estimated to be $773 a month.”

Almost eight hundred bucks a month less to rent rather than own the same condo. It’s a massive premium, only faintly justified if the value of the asset keeps on rising every year – which is exactly what condo kiddies and speckers have been told would happen, endlessly. (Remember those Brad Lamb ads I posted guaranteeing returns of 273% on GTA and Calgary condos?)

But this is precisely what F and the federal peckerettes have taken beady aim at. And they will succeed. Condo sales will plunge in the coming few months. New projects will be cancelled. Yawning holes left in the ground. And resale values will suffer as the magic run out. Combine this financing reality with little nasties like the exploding glass balcony situation in Toronto (wait to see what this does to condo fees), and you can stick a fork in it all.

Meanwhile Ontario’s always-interventionist government has just decreed that the allowable max rent increase this year will be 2.5%, which is a hair or two above the prevailing inflation rate. “Tenants will benefit from more predictable and stable rents so they have safe and affordable housing,” says the premier. “For landlords, this will ensure a fair return so they can properly maintain and repair rental properties.” Yeah, sure.

As I may have mentioned, there are about 260,000 virginal buyers each year of new and resale properties – roughly a third of all deals. The vast majority of those people have been flocking to 30-year amortizations, and have had high-ratio mortgages, usually with 5% down. Shortening the amortization alone causes the same shock to monthly payments as a 1% mortgage increase – which might take 18 months of Bank of Canada increases to achieve.

So, by turning young owners back into young renters, housing gets a reprieve. And all those virgins who bought in the last couple of years with weenie down payments learn about the true nature of debt. It’s this combination which ensures real estate will soon cost less.

What to do? Well, if you’re a newbie house shopper now bombarded with emails from brokers telling you to apply for financing before the July 9th deadline, don’t. If you buy now, it will be a falling knife. You are far better off to save, then jump in later even if mortgage rates rise.

If you’ve been considering selling your place in a good hood, and harvesting a windfall capital gain, give it a shot. There are still greater fools roaming the streets in their leased Kias, thinking they’re entitled to unearned granite and stainless. But if you’re a Boomer in a suburban McMansion, the best option is to find religion.

171 comments ↓

#1 Jane on 06.25.12 at 9:46 pm

I hope this will finally slow down the building of all the condo towers in Vancouver, many of which are empty

#2 Smoking Man on 06.25.12 at 9:49 pm

FIRST!

#3 sam on 06.25.12 at 9:50 pm

Garth,

What happens if the housing bubble continues?

F has tried this before the last few years making new rules but the housing bubble continued.

Why in your opinion is it different this time?

Although I hope it will happen, what makes it different this time?

#4 Randy on 06.25.12 at 9:51 pm

Are the Ontario Liberals riding high off the Toronto Real Estate ‘wealth’ effect ?

#5 TnT on 06.25.12 at 9:52 pm

Great article as usual…

Which market segment will have the most downward pressure with these upcoming events? Perferred bank shares, cdn bond market, Canadian equities or reits?

Thanks

NOTA. — Garth

#6 Not 1st on 06.25.12 at 9:55 pm

Garth, everybody keeps ganging up on agents and brokers and forgets about scuzzy developers and their sleazy tactics. Will we see some of these guys go belly up finally?

#7 Ashley Khadir on 06.25.12 at 9:58 pm

May the lost decade begin…

#8 jack on 06.25.12 at 9:59 pm

Hey what happened to the beating the real estate agent was gonna give you !

#9 Walter Safety on 06.25.12 at 10:01 pm

So the parents buyout the lease on the Kia , apply for another credit card so as to not have to wait to see the kids in a house . Then they all go find the mortgage broker who says “we can do this” if the kids can hide those other loans “I know a guy”.

#10 Sebee on 06.25.12 at 10:01 pm

Is it me or am I noticing more red dots lately? Even lowly W6 needs to be zoomed in as there are too many listings to map.

Glad to hear condo projects will be cancelled. Parking lots are disappearing downtown last few years. Maybe these events will save a few.

#11 Only The Bankers Laugh on 06.25.12 at 10:03 pm

Still think a measly 5% down payment will not deter many parents from making the loan as most boomers will still be oblivious to these rule changes. Yes, I know that this seems amazingly hard to believe but it takes a long time for these thnigs to sink in. There are still enough realtors and TV stations spinning the story with new indexes to make this melt go very, very slowly. 10% downpayment is still a relatively small when looking at 10x leverage. Why didn’t they go this way 2 years ago? Oh ya, there was a majority to win.

#12 Only The Bankers Laugh on 06.25.12 at 10:08 pm

Where is DA? It would be interesting to read 200 posts on these recent events.

Only the Bankers Laugh – wearing the full body Trojan no matter what the economic weather

#13 Can history repeat itself? on 06.25.12 at 10:10 pm

Think about it:

Costantino Bresciani-Turroni, The Economics of Inflation (Surrey, UK: Unwin Brothers Ltd., 1937), 404.

“The inflation retarded the crisis for some time, but this broke out later, throwing millions out of work. At first, inflation stimulated production because of the divergence between the internal and external values of the mark, but later it exercised an increasingly negative influence, disorganizing and limiting production. It annihilated thrift: it made reform of the national budget impossible for years; idestroyed incalculable moral and intellectual values. It provoked a serious revolution of social classes, a few people accumulating wealth and forming a class of usurpers of national property, whilst millions of individuals were thrown into poverty. It was a distressing preoccupation and constant torment of innumerable families; it poisoned the German people by spreading among all classes the spirit of speculation and by diverting them from proper and regular work, and it was the cause of incessant political and moral disturbance. It is indeed easy enough to understand why the record of the sad years 1919-23 always weighs like a nightmare on the German people”.

#14 Useless mortgage borkers criminals in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 06.25.12 at 10:11 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/moodys-warns-on-mortgage-debt/article4369806/

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors and mortgage brokers.

#15 timbo on 06.25.12 at 10:16 pm

Great one tonight Garth.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/06/25/uk-britain-consumer-finances-idUKLNE85O00520120625

“Around one-third of respondents said their financial situation had worsened in June, while less than a 10th reported an improvement.

The index measuring households’ expectations for their finances over the next 12 months rose to 42.8 in June – the highest since April 2010.

“Lower inflation provided some relief to UK household finances in June,” said Tim Moore, a senior economist at Markit.”

That is what happens when oil prices stop pulling on wallets…………….

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47954108

“Moody’s downgraded the ratings of 28 of 33 rated banks, by one to four notches, following a cut to Spain’s sovereign rating to just above junk status earlier this month.

“The reduced creditworthiness of the Spanish sovereign…affects the government’s ability to support the banks,” the credit rating agency said in a statement.”

coming soon, sell all the assets to Germany…….

#16 lilyflor on 06.25.12 at 10:17 pm

while I really want to see prices drop, I already feel the pain of the poor souls who were too financially illiterate to make an informed decision. this could have been me in the not too distant past

#17 Mark W on 06.25.12 at 10:18 pm

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/376942–where-will-your-children-live-in-vancouver

Quote from article:

“The City of Vancouver believes the housing market in this city is coming up short when it comes to affordability.”

So Greater Vancouver is becoming a big donut urban zone, and the hole in the middle is Vancouver … where everyone is leaving and moving to the suburbs.

Average price of a single detached home in Vancouver is now over one million dollars.

And Vancouver City Council is just starting to figure out that the city is “unaffordable” …. they have been drinking the Kool Aid big time.

Elementary schools are closing because anyone with children have gone to the suburbs, and the HAM in the city do not have kids in this demographic.

Elementary schools in the suburbs are growing.

The suburb of Surrey has 800% more business license applications than the City of Vancouver.

Within the decade the largest city in BC will NOT be Vancouver …. but the City of Surrey.

Vancouver is actually dying right now under the weight of it’s own unaffordability.

#18 Canadian Watchdog on 06.25.12 at 10:18 pm

Chart: Ontario Rent Guideline vs CPI http://postimage.org/image/l1kvh2b53/

#19 Saskatoon-Living on 06.25.12 at 10:24 pm

Great post again Garth! When is the blog for Saskatoon coming? Please don’t tell me the Peg is the only one.

#20 Jsan on 06.25.12 at 10:25 pm

Here is a good story that epitomizes the destructiveness of real estate bubbles. Bubbles cloud everyone’s good judgement and even though during the bubble it seems like the party will never end, it ALWAYS DOES and it ALWAYS ends VERY BADLY. How many people in your neighborhood, at work, family members and associates are tooling around in fancy new cars, going on expensive trips, filling their homes with the latest and coolest electronic toys, all subsidized by their HELOC? I know around Alberta here at the height of our housing bubble it was one never ending party as everyone thought they had one the lottery. Now the Canadian housing bubble hangover begins.

Boom-to-bust city braces for bankruptcy

http://www2.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=0d796c65-dac0-4f4b-bf5a-1c87714eddc1

#21 Aizlynne on 06.25.12 at 10:26 pm

You guys should ask Manitoba how well rent controls work there. If you NEVER want your rent to decrease, then certainly continuing voting for those greater fools who think rent controls save the little guy.

#22 Peaches on 06.25.12 at 10:27 pm

Every Realtor I know still think the RE market is peachy! Are they lying to me or themselves?? I don’t have a mortgage but still hate the feeling that it will take years for my property to recover after this downfall.

#23 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.25.12 at 10:32 pm

Garth’s influence has moved well beyond this blog… clearly, pop culture is taking notice of Canada’s bearded guru:
http://uncrate.com/stuff/beard-coozie/
http://uncrate.com/stuff/a-book-of-beards/

#24 Frank let skank on 06.25.12 at 10:37 pm

When do the numbers for the CMHC cap come out? Once that runs out it will put more downward pressure on house prices.

#25 45north on 06.25.12 at 10:37 pm

sam: What happens if the housing bubble continues?

McLister (name is destiny): Reducing buying power will weigh on prices. Whether other supply/demand factors offset this pressure is unknowable.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/06/20-observations-on-the-new-mortgage-rules.html

if the bubble continues, it would mean that someone has to put more money into housing

it’s hard to predict anything, let alone the future

#26 Generation Xtra on 06.25.12 at 10:43 pm

Well I hope it gets better but its about to get a lot worse!

Hold on to your horses!!!!

#27 Bottoms_Up on 06.25.12 at 10:45 pm

There’s a gaping 7-story deep hole in Ottawa 2 minutes from the Parliament buildings (Albert @ Elgin). Suppose to be a 29 storey condo tower when completed in 2015…will be interesting to see what happens there.

#28 P & T S on 06.25.12 at 10:48 pm

The vast army of Canadian Kia owners are coming to get you, Garth!!

The situation “Down Under” is still on course for lost decades of growth, along with decades of “extra” taxation. We’re flying out next month, and it’ll be interesting to see what initial effects the “Carbon Tax” might have on the psyche of the economy. Locally the MSM are fairly consistently negative, with blame for recent significant job losses being placed on the “Tax”, however we suspect the problems lie much deeper, with serious obvious inefficiencies at many levels.

Australia isn’t known as “The Switzerland of the South” for it’s Banking institutions or climate!! Welcome to bureaucracy heaven (a box to tick for everything!). Compares very poorly with the far more efficient (and less over-regulated) South American emergent economies, AND the Aussie accident rate per capita (matched for population education and skills set) is not significantly better than theirs. Regulation does not beget a safe mindset, only common sense (with the necessary extra knowledge) does that.

#29 Burnaby Boy on 06.25.12 at 10:48 pm

Jane I hope this will finally slow down the building of all the condo towers in Vancouver, many of which are empty It’s just as bad in Burnaby, especially around Metrotown.

#30 Doug in Victoria on 06.25.12 at 10:50 pm

Stopped by an Open House on the weekend in Victoria. Agent telling the couple ahead of us how big a deal the new rules are. Had a handout and everything. Showed a couple with $65K income who previously qualified for $525K mortgage would now only qualify $410. Went on to say that this WILL impact the market even if you don’t need CMHC. Got her info from a mortgage broker.

Not sure the home owners would be too happy about her sales technique!! Must be more of a “buyer’s” agent I guess.

She commented how VREB wasn’t really telling the true story in their monthly reports. Such an interesting shift in sentiment!

Wife and I happy to keep renting another year….

#31 totalinvestor.com on 06.25.12 at 10:52 pm

Hey Garth, does “F” stand for Flaherty, First or Flatulence?

#32 Pass the fork | The Retiring Boomer™ on 06.25.12 at 11:01 pm

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#33 GTA Girl on 06.25.12 at 11:01 pm

With all the red sales dots appearing in northern GTA, the recent behind scenes actions of area developers boggles the mind.

Local municipal politicians and York Region have gotten the screws putto them to speed up development of white belt lands along the OakRidges Morraine. York region has been running a shell game with their debt, and need the white belt areas developed to gain fees.

The local politicians have been lobbied hard to open up the belt to more sprawl. Vast tracts of land for towns/semis, all the way north. Selling price to start at $550k.

One thing I agree with Flaherty. The developers have no plan, no barriers and will run us into the ground, with sprawl & prices which make no sense. Infrastructure is non-existent.

It’s gotta slow down. This herd mentality is frightening.

#34 Zoe on 06.25.12 at 11:02 pm

What’s the outlook for recreational markets? They tend towards retirees and people who already own a home somewhere else. Prices are way down in the Gulf Islands, but they have been down since 2008. Listed prices are really just a guideline – offers are often $30-50k off and being accepted.

#35 ACP on 06.25.12 at 11:03 pm

Renting is sexy again!! https://riverportflats.com/

#36 Smoking Man (fraud) on 06.25.12 at 11:05 pm

Like I instructed you over the past sex months, Victoria is Ground Zero, followed by Vancouver. Look for twentie percent declines by November.

I’ll drink to that.

#37 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.25.12 at 11:10 pm

China’s Officials Forced to Sell Luxury Cars
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47955924

Bye Bye HAM?

#38 Bo Xilai on 06.25.12 at 11:25 pm

“But if you’re a Boomer in a suburban McMansion, the best option is to find religion.”
——————–
Religions might be helpful… Saint Jude is the patron saint of lost causes…

What might be more practical for Boomers in the upcoming real estate correction is driving to the nearest Costco and loading up on industrial quantities of Depends…

#39 This is Wonderland on 06.25.12 at 11:32 pm

Hi Garth,
How about the new book, will it be out this year?

When the seas part and the animals kneel. — Garth

#40 Dave on 06.25.12 at 11:33 pm

Great post! Can you talk about the Kelowna market and future more in depth in a future post?

#41 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 06.25.12 at 11:37 pm

#2 Smoking Man on 06.25.12 at 9:49 pm

FIRST!
===============================

Close ……but no Cigar

Get it ?

ahahahahahahaah

#42 Elmer on 06.25.12 at 11:39 pm

That 2.5% rent increase rule does not apply to newer condos, they can increase the rent by whatever figure they like: http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/atrent/rent_control_exempt.php

#43 coastal on 06.25.12 at 11:41 pm

Doug in Victoria,

Now that’s a breath of fresh air, the other 99% of Victoria agents would never whisper such evil atrocities or would be tarred and feathered in Centennial Square.

Not sure why anyone would want to move here for the weather, it’s sucked the last 5 or more years, spring and summers are non-existent. It hasn’t broke 20 degrees barely twice all year. Currently cold, windy and just finished raining again with no signs of warmth anytime soon. Talk about depressing, kinda like Newfoundland West.

#44 John Prine on 06.25.12 at 11:43 pm

#2 Smoking Man on 06.25.12 at 9:49 pm
FIRST!

Thought these losers were purged??

#45 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 06.25.12 at 11:44 pm

#17 Mark W on 06.25.12 at 10:18 pm

City of Vancouver is overrun with a Commie Council. Vancouver is doomed, as these idiots think money grows on trees.

On NW today had a guy who owns Cravings Restaurant in Marpole..been around for 21 years. He’s packing it in…..says his property taxes are $27,000 per year, enough is enough.

Richmond is next….20+% commercial vacancy rate now, and will only get worse when the SHTF.

We are slaves to these clowns.

#46 dd on 06.25.12 at 11:50 pm

According to Rosenberg the US is in a depression. Remember Rosenberg Garth? Ya you quote him when it is convenient. So you are wrong on the “see I told you the US is not in a recession” prediction.

Unlike you, I apparently do not require others to give me opinions. — Garth

#47 cORY on 06.25.12 at 11:53 pm

Layoffs at Encana, Talisman, our own co, and now Nexen is laying off…ya, Calgary is hot hot hot. Buy now before its too late!!

#48 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.26.12 at 12:01 am

Canadian house purchased in 1982 for $15,000 now selling for $2 million

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/canadian-house-purchased-1982-15-000-now-selling-231254684.html

Don’t worry, it’s not in Vancouver or Toronto.

#49 Mr Buyer on 06.26.12 at 12:02 am

#22Peaches on 06.25.12 at 10:27 pm
Every Realtor I know still think the RE market is peachy! Are they lying to me or themselves?? I don’t have a mortgage but still hate the feeling that it will take years for my property to recover after this downfall.
…………………………………………………………..
This is the crashing of a bubble. There is absolutely no reason to expect a return to these horrific prices ever. The few year dip in price mythology is just that. This bubble is not like anything in the past and certainly not cyclic in nature.

#50 Hopelessly devoted to you... on 06.26.12 at 12:02 am

Hopelessly Devoted to You…  (FTP)
Garth, I’ve been reading your blog for quite some time now and appreciate your expertise and dedication in warning people to be financially responsible and avoid the coming meltdown of our country’s housing market.
I have been sitting on the sidelines in “too perfect” little Canmore for nearly a decade now. Things finally started cooling off since Q1 of 2011 and have really chilled since Q1 of 2012. However, this past weekend I have noticed a sudden increase in open house activity and the new 4-plex across the street from me, which has been on the market for $799K each unit, for well over a year now just sold 2 units – YESTERDAY!! (Noticed a couple C/S signs on my way home today as well.)
This makes me increasingly angry, why? These people are the ones foolish enough to jump in the market at the exact wrong time but I can’t help being resentful. My husband and I earn approx. $100K/yr and have felt very poor over the past decade watching everyone around us seemingly prosper. I feel this will never end…despite having the common sense to have figured out this bubble in 2006!
Is there hope for my husband and I to ever have a patch of grass of our own and maybe even a modest garden shed to call home? Sigh
I’d be very grateful for an analysis on Canmore’s residential property market. We already know the fate of the vacation condo market. I feel like I already know the answer but need to have it confirmed by you.
PS – I have been turned down for a cost of living allowance from my Calgary employer over the years (I manage the Canmore branch) as my employer feels Canmore is no different than Calgary…but I keep telling them “Oh no, it’s different here!” ;)

#51 Mr Buyer on 06.26.12 at 12:16 am

A top flight salesman will see the writng on the wall and be the first out the door if they want to survive. Open houses that have anyone show up will turn into recruitment centers for potential sales down the road or sales of other homes by more reasonable sellers. I wish to emphasise that I have omitted ethics as they are optional but likely somewhat beneficial to a career sales person (especially when there is a high proportion of repeat sales). It is all about the appearence of trustworthiness and somewhat about like-ability.

#52 Tony on 06.26.12 at 12:16 am

You haven’t been out to Edmonton lately. Buying a condo is less than half of what it costs to rent the same condo per month. For one one bedroom condos that drops to 25 percent or less. Many one bedroom condos can still be had for less than 50 thousand dollars in Edmonton. This is with no money down, or a zero down payment.

#53 TRT on 06.26.12 at 12:18 am

the weather in Vancouver is absolutely horrible…last 3 years been like this.

Only rich people moving here are the rich immigrants from China and India…easier to bring their money and family…lots of free stuff here as well.

First world rich people moving here?? Yeah, only in your dreams. Weather is only good in Vancouver from July-August. Yes, maybe a week or two of real summer weather.

#54 Snowboid on 06.26.12 at 12:30 am

#35 ACP on 06.25.12 at 11:03 pm…

Excellent! You can probably fish for salmon out your window – but keep your kayak close at hand, you never know – it could come in handy.

Location, location, location!

#55 Gmaz on 06.26.12 at 12:36 am

#195 zeeman (from yesterday’s post).
I don’t think everything is selling for over asking, just that it is selling still high.
I’ve lived in Mississauga all my life (35 years) and I don’t think it ever warranted $500,000 (half a million dollars) for a standard cookie cutter detached home – which is probably as old as I am. Even at 95% of asking, it is still WAY TOO HIGH!!!!

For pete’s sake, I am just trying to get a good read of how low it should be and when it will get there.

And to all those who keep citing ” crickets” – what is your justification??? Is it just a gut feeling or something you tell yourself to agree with your opinion.
I want prices, (asking prices, not sold prices only) to come down before I can confidently say we are in a housing correction. I just can’t say there are crickets or walk around my neighbourhood to say that confidently.

#56 Gmaz on 06.26.12 at 12:42 am

also from yesterday’s post

#146 From Mississauga With Love

the problem is that people don’t understand that people will “invent” money from somewhere to cover the cost of buying homes____________________

please share with me, ignorant as I am, just how people are inventing money…

#57 Superman on 06.26.12 at 12:42 am

LET’S GET REAL!

Surrey is as big of a S-hole as Vancouver. How many idiots buy a house in Surrey or Maple Ridge for $200k less, and then spend $10k more on gas every year, plus 500 hours a year of lost time with their family driving in traffic. Not to mention, living in classless neighbourhoods. With the Port Mann Bridge tolls coming soon, you can add another $210 a month in costs to commute to Vancouver ($5 each way = $50 a week).

As Vancouver prices crash, the city of Surrey will be left like a ghost town if Surrey’s prices don’t crash hard along with it.

#58 guy from Vancouver on 06.26.12 at 12:42 am

So Garth, what are your predictions for say Toronto and Vancouver in terms of a) condo, and b) single detached housing price crash/correction in the next 1, 2, and 5 years? I recall a blog post where you said it won’t be 30%… are you now saying it will be? Or, are we more like TD forecasts – 15% over 2 years? If so, your language “crash” seems a bit harsh.

#59 Honas Wagner on 06.26.12 at 1:05 am

Chatting with some friends over the week-end, I discovered two of them and another work buddy of theirs decided to go in on a condo, pre-construction. This is in a city with not quite as many new condos going up as other places, but still where many have gone up in recent years, where many more are under construction, and where many more will break ground in the next two years (if not cancelled in the interim). They did this past Saturday. I have no idea what world they’re living in. Crazy.

#60 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.26.12 at 1:12 am


“Pass the fork. Then gargle, the best option is to find religion and you can stick a fork in it all.” — It took a while for the Titanic to sink, but it sunk. History rhymes and repeats.
*
“In acting, sincerity is everything. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.” — George Burns. Describes banxters, politicos and lobbyists quite well.
*
NatWest – RBS Customer fallout; Teachers Union Head Conflict of interest? Pricey Rain Where is HAARP these days? Trouble Ahead? Try trouble now; Bank of Mom and Pop People are running out of common sense as well as money; Save Money See headline; Supersonic Brains Successor to Concorde? John Mauldin What will Germany do? Win Euro 2012. They always win;
New Home Sales surge in May in US; Distorted Dollar Stores; EZone Brek up costs; 7:07 clip Further proof that NAmerica is becoming a McJobs service-sector society.

Giving Money Away when we haven’t got any. Good planning; UK and Germany Fought a few times, but now, leaving the EZone? Credit Suisse Slashing jobs in Europe? Soros Euro fiasco in three days, which is what TPTB would like enormously (they will profit handsomely); Lotteries Sometimes, it’s better not to win; Short clip World bond markets turning Japanese; 4:35 clip Russian Arctic oil will cost US$30-40 brl.; Euro dithering leading to global deflation? 23:29 clip Fall of Rome and modern parallels; 5:18 clip 80% of the gold the world owns doesn’ exist (Bre-X -rebirthed?)
*
0:36 clip Dropping a full garbage bag into a volcano. Interesting effect; Death Is it an illusion? Yes. The difference between this outer physical plane and the inner planes is less than a hairbreadth. There are no such things as near death experiences, as life always continues. It’s these uniforms (bodies) we put on and take off that are temporary homes for us; The Bermuda Triangle May shed some light; 3:25 clip Rocket Man (not Elton John’s song); A Day In The Life of a Tim’s coffee taster; Skateboard Record Fast and Furious II? Shoe fetish? Fools are the ones who believed their drivel; Executive Orders, FEMA Camps and other stuff. A comprehensive list; Turkey’s False Flag with Syria, except Turkey has already admitted the jet was in Syrian airspace, which could include 49:21 clip Transition Towns, Agenda 21, the UN, US, NATO, WTO and one-world govt., plus Turkey’s excuses; China’s answer to US; Gold Nanoparticles Unraveling DNA. Melt myself down and cash in? Obummer Dismantling the US, state by state; Tesla Motors launches new car; 2:28 clip Coronal hole and other; Blood Thinners Alternatives to big pharma; Monsanto Sue ’em, put ’em outta business and use them to plug the GoM oil leaks.

#61 Ronaldo on 06.26.12 at 1:24 am

#41 Coastal – so why don’t you move?

#62 Gunboat Denier on 06.26.12 at 1:42 am

41 coastal – there is an upside to that. Low fire hazard so no campfire ban. No bill for xtra watering (havent even turned my multi-zone inground on). Less power used for cooling (heat pump is OFF).

Just pretend its Port Hardy. Then the weather is great!

#63 coastal on 06.26.12 at 1:52 am

Moody’s warns on Canadian mortgage debt

http://soc.li/0IR2OqD

The federal government’s attempt to cool the housing market “may have come too late” to prevent a harsh landing for residential real estate, Moody’s Investors Service is warning.

#64 Ronaldo on 06.26.12 at 1:53 am

Well, I think it may be time to invest in plywood. If this next real estate drought is anything like it was in the early to mid nineties in the Okanagan, you are going to see a lot of unfinished projects come to a standstill and boarded up.

In 1992, for example, the vacancy rate for rentals in Vernon, BC was near zero percent. Then, the condo development boom began to the point that by the end of that year, the vacancy rate had risen to 7%. But, they just continued to build. Two years later, nothing selling.

Many half completed projects with windows and doors boarded up with plywood for up to 5 years and longer. Prices reduced to basically building cost and still not selling.

Developers who held large inventory of lots were building and basically selling at cost just to get rid of the lots and the cost to hold them. Prices dropped 20% almost overnite.

Projects that had completed took 4-5 years to sell out at greatly reduced prices. New apartment buildings half empty. Realtors dropping like flies. Real estate prices flattened and stayed flat for 10 years. Is it different today? Yes. It’s worse. Even at the lowest interest rates in history.

Finally, the madness will end, but not without some very serious repercussions. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the main bubble areas will see drops of 40% over the next 2 to 3 years. Thanks to our weak kneed legislators, unscrupulous realtors and mortgage lenders.

#65 bclandguy on 06.26.12 at 2:01 am

It’s here, it’s happening NOW, for sale signs all over my town…and in the greater Van area, I do feel for the people that bought in the last couple years…….but they should have done more research!!!!….how can the same place be 1/3 in SoCal compared to Van???…The outskirts of Vancouver are nice with the mountains, lakes and trails, but the city in general has nothing to offer other than congestion and traffic. However, if you like to live in a concrete box and commute on a bike, it may be your place……..again I feel sorry for anyone buying a condo in Van, way too overpriced.
It seems that most city dwellers never see the true value in “getting out of the city”

#66 Motzu on 06.26.12 at 3:00 am

We can predict 2 effects of these new rules :

1- Cooling the first buyers (widely explain everywhere and Garth is among these analysts).

2- Killing the housing market as a good “short term investment opportunity”

… If there is less to no money to make on a RE investment, it will end with less to no flippers/speckers no mater how you spin it. Period.

So ? Much less first buyers and less (to no) flippers are 2 safe and reasonable statements.

And only one of these 2 safe statements would probably lead to hard landing, independently.

So Ill say what my coach would say in such a fast and violent situation :

– Skate faster
– Heads up
– Look everywhere around you
– Never face the boards
– Find the best play and do it now

Otherwise, you’re dead.

#67 Freedom First on 06.26.12 at 3:07 am

It truly is amazing. How many Canadians have been sleeping and still are. I don’t say much, but I do listen to people talk wherever I go. The financial crisis of 2008, and the ongoing repercussions world wide, especially in the U.S. and Europe, have yet to show up on the radar of many, many, blissfully(?)unaware Canadians. Even the msm is preying on this factoid to print misleading articles on the “small percentage” of people that will be affected by F’s mortgage changes announcement. It appears that some people must lose everything themselves, before they can believe “we are not different”.

Also, being a long time reader of this pathetic blog, I do appreciate the readers who “get it”, but it is still startling to read the comments of people, who, I see have followed Garth’s blog for quite a period of time, and still ask stupid questions. Garth, thank you for the time you spend on your blog, and for your patience…….just want you to know, as others say also, you are much appreciated.

#68 bbrodriguez on 06.26.12 at 3:37 am

Garth, here’s the million dollar question for ya – you think that F is going to “hold the line” and not increase the ceiling on CMHC past 600B?

My money’s on yes, and I bet a friend of mine $10 that F holds the line. Seems like a sucker bet, eh?

#69 new-era on 06.26.12 at 4:55 am

Even Moody’s lining up to give canada bad news

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/moodys-warns-on-mortgage-debt/article4369806/?cmpid=rss1

Canada is doomed. GRanada, were the next greece

#70 Joe on 06.26.12 at 6:33 am

Speckers will continue to run up the prices, as long as a 5% down payment is enough to buy (which it is with a 25 yr mortgage) no asset deflation is expected.

#71 Smoking Man on 06.26.12 at 6:35 am

#2. Smoking Man. Is a fake

#72 MarcFromOttawa on 06.26.12 at 7:04 am

#42 John Prine on 06.25.12 at 11:43 pm
#2 Smoking Man on 06.25.12 at 9:49 pm
FIRST!

Thought these losers were purged??

Apparently so did I but you’re still here.

#73 John on 06.26.12 at 8:05 am

Frank wrote:

“When do the numbers for the CMHC cap come out? Once that runs out it will put more downward pressure on house prices.”
——–

What is the purpose of this question? The machinations of CMHC are just a minute detail. The CMHC scam was put in place as the government aided Goldman Sachs et al to saturate the public with cheap debt.

CMHC is just a small player. Do you wonder about the conditon of your radiator if you’re driving into a wall?

What’s up here. To coin the much used “WTF” internet meme, let me ask….WTF are you talking about. Your question is irrelevant.

#74 Can it be? on 06.26.12 at 8:17 am

Gmaz. Go buy a house already and find your own numbers. You obviously need a nice honest agent and mortgage broker to guide you through the process. Stop asking for advice when you don’t really want to hear what people on the forum have to say. Sigh… It’s exhausting. You don’t want to do your own foot work, you don’t listen tO advice… So if you are so stubborn… Buy buy buy.

#75 TurnerNation on 06.26.12 at 8:24 am

#63Ronaldo on 06.26.12 at 1:53 am

Invest in plywood? Well there exists a hardwood stock: HWD on the TSX. Hardwoods Distribution.
Yield, almost 3%. Stock price quadrupled over past four years. But I cannot say it’s really investment grade.
Discosure: no position ever.

#76 Ret on 06.26.12 at 8:33 am

I posted this link a week or so ago but as we are discussing condos, I have reposted it. A must read for anyone with any thoughts of buying a T.O. condo. The magazine was still on the magazine racks as of 2 days ago.

I really liked the part where an owner claims that his window moves out a full inch from the drywall edge when the building gets sun on that side. Water penetration has to have already started whether the residents know it or not. Who knows what other evil lurks behind those walls?

Ontario new home warranty? You’re joking right? You bought it, you got it sucker. The warranty program is set up to limit the builder’s responsibilities and liabilities.

Noise, cigarette smoke, and cooking odour transmission problems in just about every new building. It is no way to live. (Daughter rents in a seven year old T.O. condo.)

The link:

http://www.torontolife.com/magazine/2012/7/

#77 john on 06.26.12 at 8:34 am

The rent increase cap is not just for this year, it’s for every year thereafter! Even worse, thx to the NDP last-minute change, there’s no “floor” to rent increase. The amendment was supposed to at least give landlords a minimum 1% annual increase but that is gone. It’s just got that much harder to make a return on renting in Ontario!

#78 tony in the hammer on 06.26.12 at 8:58 am

The way I see things-
-1-What goes up too fast always comes down–Van and TO condo market–everything else should move with COA or a touch higher
2-5% to buy a house is too low and has put too many people in and they will be “under water”especially the condo gang in a couple of years.
3- the big move by F to a 25 year mortgage will cool things but only for those in tight spots. If you could not afford it before, yyou really cannot afford it mow.
4- We cannot legislate stupidity but it looks like we can mitigate greed by legislation a little
5-In a recession, which we are in, country or second properties take the biggest hit—so those folks in Canmore–Muskoka–Van Island that paid big $$ will see the biggest hit

Garth–how about an analysis on the Oakville–Milton-Burlington-Hamilton and areas

#79 Mississauga Renter on 06.26.12 at 9:14 am

A few weeks ago, semi-detached on my street listed for $460,000, sold for $470,000. About 1,500 sq. ft. Finished basement but a 7 out of 10 for interior finishing. Don’t believe any extra $$/work put into the front yard/drive or back yard/porch. Judging by my semi-detached a few doors down, construction standards are poor. These prices are nuts.

#80 Beach Girl on 06.26.12 at 9:18 am

This has been an epic weekend. I personally don’t want a man full time. Not going to happen in this lifetime.

But men are funny, they think weird. Tell them a problem and they are going to fix it. Our you.

#81 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.26.12 at 9:18 am

@#49 Hopelessly Devoted….
Cant afford Canmore?
No prob, jump in your car and head down the highway toward Calgary.
When you get to the sign that says Pidgeon Mountain, turn right and drive up the hill to the old Ski Lodge.
Buy one of the cabins………….

#82 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.26.12 at 9:27 am

@#66 Freedom 1st
Yup totally agree.
I’m constantly amazed at people who couldnt name the Premier of their own Province but they can tell you a professional athletes stats for the past 20 years.
Children should recieve lessons on money management from the ages of 12 to 16 in school
( perhaps one semester per year in math class?) just to prepare them for the cold cruel world of finance that awaits.
And dont even get me going on politics, the self induced ignorance to what is happening in the day to day political scene causes me a migraine.

Mention even the most basis current event, whether its local,provincial or international (all of which will affect your life) and it causes eyes to roll and the subject to inevitably revert back to those sports “heros”

How about those Canucks eh?

#83 DM in C on 06.26.12 at 9:29 am

“Where is DA? It would be interesting to read 200 posts on these recent events. ”

Don’t even joke about that. This blog is better off without his obsessive, repetitive, condescending tripe.

#84 Axehead on 06.26.12 at 9:41 am

I laugh everytime I read the word ‘peckerettes’. Thanks Garth

#85 bill on 06.26.12 at 9:56 am

#82 DM in C on 06.26.12 at 9:29 am
well said old son. I second that emotion

#86 young & foolish on 06.26.12 at 10:02 am

The US authorities are hell bent on holding back deflation … so QE and Operation Twist will continue. No real growth on the horizon yet, just more propping up the vested interests.

As for many Canadians, they are watching the Euro-crisis, a slowing global economy, earnings forecasts being revised downwards, and wonder if their equity holdings are set for another tumble. They probably are. And a domestic housing correction will just compound the negative “weath-effect” and inevitably lead to lower household spending and debt reduction. The era of limitless growth seems to be over, at least for now.

For many, staying liquid means you have a better chance of making bad investment decisions. No more “set it and forget it” investment strategies. For the rest, squatting in over-priced RE means you are a sitting duck. Confusion about where real value resides will ensue, and fear could drive folk toward surprising results.

#87 truth hammer on 06.26.12 at 10:03 am

The manipulation of interest rates was said to be a causal effect of a looming recession in the world. The fact was that we never had a recession in Canada but we got the ’emergency rates’ anyway……why?

None of the issues that were happening in the ROTW were taking place in Canada when the ’emergency’ was imposed….my suggestion is that it has all been a red herring put out to bloat revenues for increased perks and pensions of the elite bureaucrats, civil service and those whom the government had a political need to pander to in order to get elected with a majority….well at least that worked. But why are we continuing the ’emergency rate’ regime when we have no emergency? It makes no sense.

The answer is deep and insidious…..down to the bottom of the class warfare that has entrenched itself in Canadian society. Over the past thirty years of liberal dictatorship we have been brainwashed into thinking that everyone should get a participation ribbon…that there should be no winners or losers….there should be no proud citizens….or civic pride…..no sense of history or revelations about a better future….we must not speak out…..we must conform to the ongoing ‘Cuban revolution of the mind’ of Pierre Elliot Trudeau…and let government lead us into the nessecary failure of a Bolivarian social ectasy where few make the decisions for the plebian majority as they are not sophisticated to make decisions for themselves. In other words …the Liberals have always known that they are better suited to make decisions than the people who elect them.

What does this have to do with real estate……amigo….this socialist masturbation is the essence of Liberal version of the Laffer ‘trickle down’ effect.

The revenues they have created ( and if you think I am not calling out F for these leftist economic policies you’re wrong) are designed to expand the power of the union movement. The manipulation of rates has had the intended effect of creating an enormous tax revenue surge that has all gone to wages and benefits. To the point..we have entire ministries consumed by pensions and perks.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/productiveconversations/Sick+health+care+system+made+Canadians+lose+more+than+billion+economic/6841598/story.html

100% of entire revenue in the health ministry is being siphoned off to the leftists? How have we let this happen? And now they need more? This is happening in every aspect of the public service.

In the US….many jurisdictions have claimed bankruptcy this year…..recently Stockton California….due to the unfunded liability of health benefits for the hundreds of thousands of retired civil servants. Last month it was Wisconsin. These same issues are a Canadians worst nightmare because of the fact that we have no fiscal controls on what has to be paid to the socialists for political peace. Haven’t we learned anything from Greece, Ireland, Spain? Are we not seeing what excess spending on fat civic servants will do to an economy when left unchecked as they have been elsewhere and are in Canada?

The wealth effect created by this real estate bubble will burst….has burst ….and we will all be left behind in the aftermath of a spending and largesses campaign that none of us can ever afford. The time to cut the fat is now……the time for pandering to special interest groups is over.

Gill Scott Heron once sang ” Wake up ni**ers…before we’re all through”.

#88 ACP on 06.26.12 at 10:04 am

#56 Superman on 06.26.12 at 12:42 am
You think Surrey will be a ghost town, but how about Langley? Our population already drops by 75% between the hours of 7am and 6pm. And we’re building a whole slew of studio apartments. Yay, affordable sardine-style living!

#89 YagginHT on 06.26.12 at 10:12 am

$200k over asking

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/201100-over-asking-gets-keys-to-moore-park-semi/article4361849/?service=mobile

Doomers cry me a river

#90 blase on 06.26.12 at 10:17 am

Truth Hammer,

The Liberal government of Canada took Canada out of a huge deficit into annual surpluses. Union participation is at an all-time low. People fight for $14/hr jobs on assembly lines in right to work states.

Liberalism (the political party and the political stance) are not the problem. Corporatism is the problem. It’s not difficult to figure out, except for you.

Increase tax revenues substantially on corporations and on the rich.

Do away with get rich quick schemes for the banks like CMHC financing and nothing-down financing (oh yeah, the “conservatives” got rid of those 10 years too late.)

In short, follow Iceland’s lead. Restore power to the people. Right now, the corporations rule the world, not unions for christ’s sake. get a clue.

#91 SCIB on 06.26.12 at 10:19 am

Isn’t it nice how our good governments manipulate us like yo yo’s
Being the peasants we are, we allow them to buy our votes with our own money.
When they need votes, pump it up with low interest rates.
When its going to hurt them at the next election, then ratchet down the overheated markets to best suit their timing in the next election.

#92 Bottoms_Up on 06.26.12 at 10:21 am

#30 Doug in Victoria on 06.25.12 at 10:50 pm
———————————————-
Ultimately she was telling you someone that makes 65k can get 410k….kind of a joke if you ask me.

Someone making 65k should be shopping in the 200k range MAX…assuming small downpayment of course.

#93 Frank le Skank on 06.26.12 at 10:21 am

John the deuche,

What do you think happens when CMHC reaches the cap? What the fuck are you talking about? Your analogy is not valid, if you think CMHC isn’t playing a role in this mess you need to get out of your parents basement and take a look around. Prices will drop due to multiple variables putting downward pressure on prices, this being one of them and the currently rules are just the start. It was a simple question, if you don’t know the answer then shut up.

#94 Junius on 06.26.12 at 10:23 am

#86 Truth Hammer,

What a nutty post. You said, “The answer is deep and insidious…..down to the bottom of the class warfare that has entrenched itself in Canadian society. ”

This is crazy. These changes were brought in by a CONSERVATIVE government. They were selfishly and recklessly done to stoke the economy in order to win them a majority government. It was irresponsible and short term but very calculated.

Your attempt to reduce every issue to a black and white world defined by your hatred of Trudeau liberalism is tedious as well as constantly inaccurate.

Cue the “you are all communists” retort.

#95 Doug in London on 06.26.12 at 10:29 am

Derek Foster, Canada’s youngest retiree who retired at age 34, has the right idea. Recently he sold his house (in Ottawa if my memory serves me right) and is now travelling around the country with his wife and kids. Now there’s a man who is financially literate!

#96 Observor on 06.26.12 at 10:31 am

U.S. Home Prices Are Rising!!

The latest Case Shiller index shows a decent 1.3% rise from March to April this year.

But news reports are focusing on the fact that April 2012 is down a little from April 2011.

The facts show that U.S. house prices have bottomed.

Yesterday there was news of os a rise in new home sales.

Doomers can bleat all they want but the U.S. housing market is on the rise.

Many clever Canadian retirees have bought U.S. retirement / winter homes in the past few years. It’s certainly not too late.

#97 2centCdn on 06.26.12 at 10:43 am

#81 Crowded … (you know the rest)
Ain’t it great!? I think the masses ignorance and belief that “everything is going to be ok” and that politicians, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, bank managers, investment “experts”, sales people at the Brick and Future Shop, Condo and Range Rover sales people are looking out for their best interest is wonderful. I think if you (we) on this site can be the 2 or 3% of society that “get’s it” and get off the tracks when we hear the train coming (or don’t get on the tracks in the first place) the odds of living a good life goes way up. Cluelessness creates opportunity. The hard part is …. you’ll need to find some of these 2-3% people … because hanging around and listening to the Lemmings will make you want to scream.

#98 Toronto condo's to CRASH over 50% on 06.26.12 at 10:56 am

This is just one tiny section on T.O condo’s for sale. One building has 46 condo’s unit’s looking for a greaterfools. With TENS of THOUSANDS of CONDO’s yet to hit the crash is going to ruin many people. Many people borrowed from their HELOC to buy condo’s Toronto condo’s/housing crash is going to be HUGE! The flippers are trying to sell in a PANIC! spread the truth Garth and blog dogs.

http://www.realtor.ca/map.aspx?&vs=VEResidential&beds=0-0&baths=0-0&minp=0&maxp=0&area=c6&trt=2#acr:false;ac:false;baths:0-0;beds:0-0;fp:false;gar:false;pmin:0;pmax:0;rmin:0;rmax:0;openh:false;pool:false;stories:0-0;buildingstyle:-1;buildingtypeid:;viewtypeid:;waterfront:false;forsale:true;forrent:false;orderBy:A;sortBy:1;LisStartDate:;mapZ:16;page:1;mapC:43.64009721941326, -79.39195990562439;curView:;curStyle:r;leftMin:false;rightMin:false;chkSchl:false;chkTran:false;chkPol:false;chkMed:false;chkWrk:false;chkFire:false;chkAll:false

#99 Useless mortgage borkers criminals in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 06.26.12 at 10:59 am

I hope this post works. In any case check out MLS.ca and laugh.

http://www.realtor.ca/map.aspx?&vs=VEResidential&beds=0-0&baths=0-0&minp=0&maxp=0&area=c6&trt=2#acr:false;ac:false;baths:0-0;beds:0-0;fp:false;gar:false;pmin:0;pmax:0;rmin:0;rmax:0;openh:false;pool:false;stories:0-0;buildingstyle:-1;buildingtypeid:;viewtypeid:;waterfront:false;forsale:true;forrent:false;orderBy:A;sortBy:1;LisStartDate:;mapZ:16;page:1;mapC:43.640097219413256, -79.39195990562439;curView:;curStyle:r;leftMin:false;rightMin:false;chkSchl:false;chkTran:false;chkPol:false;chkMed:false;chkWrk:false;chkFire:false;chkAll:false

#100 Davey Boy on 06.26.12 at 11:19 am

#79 Beach Girl

“Men are funny, they think weird”

Too bad you’ll never know how painful it is for a man to have a conversation with a woman. It’s something most of us fake enjoying usually around mating season (which for us is anytime)

A good illustration of this is the Klondike Bar “5 seconds to glory” commercial, where the husband tries to actually pay attention to his wife for a whole 5 seconds and then celebrates his amazing accomplishment.

#101 John on 06.26.12 at 11:30 am

Observer wrote:

“The facts show that U.S. house prices have bottomed.”

The facts most certainly do not show this. The derivatives fraud and money printing glucose has gone on for 44 months. How can you make the claims in your post?

In my opinion some accounting and a reality check might be in order before you start singing the praises of the bottom. It sounds all wrong to me.

#102 Tony on 06.26.12 at 11:40 am

Re: #86 truth hammer on 06.26.12 at 10:03 am

Canada’s interest rates move more or less in lockstep with American rates. Canadian rates have always tended to be slightly higher.

#103 so it begins... on 06.26.12 at 11:40 am

as mentioned before large corporations will be laying off
to help maintain profits.
Rogers cutting 375 jobs – telecoms, and soon banks.
Never mind interest rates , its all about the unemployment rate.

#104 FTP - First Time Poster on 06.26.12 at 11:56 am

#51 Tony – I live in Edmonton. The only “cheap” condos are in the inner city, where anyone with half a brain wouldnt pay for parking, let alone a property. The condo market is over heated here as well & destined to fall.

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 06.26.12 at 11:57 am

Garth the boomers did find religion! It is called real estate values and government social programs. What they have trouble with is the idea that their god and his priests are quite likely to fail them and leave the boomers pennyless or worse in debt and jobless. Eventually all false religions fail and are revealed as the scams they are.

#106 disciple on 06.26.12 at 12:08 pm

John McCain is played by Henry Winkler. Joe Biden is played by Jimmy Page.

#107 Junius on 06.26.12 at 12:15 pm

#89 blase,

Great post. The right wing smoke screen about the real causes of the current economic situation are just so devious.

The real issues are bought political system that has lead to crony corporatism taking over the world. The resulting global economic system has been all about creating massive rentier profits without adding economic value, the destruction of our financial system along with the degradation of our environment. However they want everyone to focus on entitlement programs instead of the real issues.

#108 daystar on 06.26.12 at 12:29 pm

#86 truth hammer on 06.26.12 at 10:03 am

“None of the issues that were happening in the ROTW were taking place in Canada when the ‘emergency’ was imposed….my suggestion is that it has all been a red herring put out to bloat revenues for increased perks and pensions of the elite bureaucrats, civil service… ” etc. – Truthhammer

Everything you say from there is built on a false premise that Canada was largely uneffected by 08′. Canada experienced a recession like everyone else:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp-growth-annual

Canada’s productivity has waned and our feds juiced housing to return to positive GDP but it comes to the expense of our future as we are about to find out:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/current-account-to-gdp

Simple point. If you can’t get your premise right, how can you expect to build facts on falsehoods?

Why you blame unions and civil servant salaries for Canada’s current struggles are beyond me. Civil servants and government wages amount to something like 8.5% of Canada’s total pie. What about the other 91.5% of Canada’s income? Perhaps you should let those who are willing to look at the rest of Canada’s incomes for a solution to Canada’s challenges like this:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/government-debt-to-gdp-list-by-country

Take a good look a that chart and then this one:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120615/t120615b004-eng.htm

What do you see? Is it that Canada’s gross public debt to GDP is now at 109% placing us within the top 10 most publicly indebted nations in the world? We never used to be. When Harper took over from Liberal governments, we were at less than 70%. What happened? :

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120615/t120615b004-eng.htm

Harper happened. Why has the Harper government undertaxed, overspent and subsidized energy in an effort to drive up the loonie erasing Canada’s manufacturing jobs is what I want to know. Why has he overspent, undertaxed, polarized and created the largest credit/RE bubble Canada has ever experienced, is what I want to know. (ok, I already pretty much know. He’s either dumb or he’s a traitor, I’m thinking a hybrid) We had much better choices to make here than this.

By the by TH, relapse is normal, especially for OCPD’s. You just have to get back on that horse, dude. I’m pulling for you, I really mean it.

#109 Piccaso on 06.26.12 at 12:37 pm

Half of Canadians expect to be debt-free by 2017

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/06/half-of-canadians-expect-to-be-debt-free-by-2017/

#110 timbo on 06.26.12 at 12:39 pm

#95 Observer,

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/06/11/family-net-worth-fell-almost-40-between-2007-2010/

“However, among families with some kind of debt in 2010, the median value of their debt was unchanged from three years earlier and the fraction of families with debt payments larger than 40% of their income remained nearly constant.”

Recovery with income’s dropping? My calculator does not have that function………….

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/01/stiglitz-depression-201201

“The problem today is the so-called real economy. It’s a problem rooted in the kinds of jobs we have, the kind we need, and the kind we’re losing, and rooted as well in the kind of workers we want and the kind we don’t know what to do with. The real economy has been in a state of wrenching transition for decades, and its dislocations have never been squarely faced. A crisis of the real economy lies behind the Long Slump, just as it lay behind the Great Depression.”

#111 Ralph Cramdown on 06.26.12 at 12:43 pm

$200k over asking

And $50k under its Zoopraisal. Are you the last person left in the city who believes that asking prices reflect agents’ opinions of value?

#112 Snowboid on 06.26.12 at 12:49 pm

#63 Ronaldo on 06.26.12 at 1:53 am…

Methinks I agree with Turner Nation – hardwood may be a better investment, based on the number of arks springing up in Okanagan backyards.

#113 PoorgEoisie on 06.26.12 at 12:50 pm

Truth hammer, show me a country with no unions and I’ll show you one with rampant poverty and a low life expectancy.
If you honestly think unions are controlling anything in canada I urge you to consider recent events: CP rail goes on strike and is legislated back to work inside of a week (the legislation was drafted before the strike was even called). It seemed like days later GM announced closing part of it’s Oshawa plant sending 2000 jobs to Mexico and the gov’t did nothing.
The savings in production costs will not go to the consumer. We have seen many jobs leave north America in recent years all the while the price of goods keeps increasing.

#114 new_era on 06.26.12 at 12:56 pm

lso from yesterday’s post

#146 From Mississauga With Love

the problem is that people don’t understand that people will “invent” money from somewhere to cover the cost of buying homes____________________

————————————
Yeah I can totally see that happening in Greece, USA and soon spain. soon Italy etc….

Open your eyes man, debt can completely wipe a family unit. And make them lifetime debt slave to the banks.

#115 Doug in London on 06.26.12 at 1:19 pm

@Crowded #81 and 2centCdn #96;
Good points you both make. I’ve been called nerd, idiot, clueless and similar names because I don’t know what’s going on in celebrity culture. Personally, I find it far more interesting to actually pay attention to what goes on in economics, politics, and the world in general. Doing so has helped me to see opportunities (sometimes, not always) to buy equities (or equity funds) when cheap and reduce exposure when they are pricey. For anyone else that would be a mediocre accomplishment, but for an idiot like me who failed a college economics course it’s a stellar achievement of which I am quite proud. It goes to show you that anyone who pays attention to what’s going on around them (including, believe it or not, reading this sad blog) can do reasonably well with investments. That’s what’s so great about capitalism, and why it’s by far the best economic system in the world.

Now consider: if you think it takes a lot of effort now to build a decent investment portfolio, imagine how much harder it would be if everyone paid attention to what’s going on around them!

#116 jess on 06.26.12 at 1:22 pm

.#28 P & T S

change messaging system…increase ownership of media co. while adding 3 directors that share your view

i wonder how extractive industries think about country to country reporting and norway leading the charge

http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/

==========

Now we have a new high-level expert, who wasn’t at our seminar and whom we haven’t quoted before, lending his voice: François Vincent, formerly Revenue Canada’s principal legal adviser on transfer pricing matters and now with KPMG as Leader, Global Transfer Pricing Dispute Resolution Services. The OECD Guidelines, he writes, appear not to be science at all:

“Taxpayers, by definition, need to be able to determine the tax payable in order to be able to account for that tax. Conversely, tax authorities need to be able to determined tax payable in order to properly administer their tax system. The needs of both parties are thus convergent. The need for certainty within the context of a tax treaty was organized by the [Canadian] Federal Court of Appeal….. Unfortunately, it is the standard set by the arm’s length principle that creates a systematic impreciseness in its application [our emphasis added, as below]
The main cause may be that, at its root, the arm’s length principle is supposed to match the transactions or dealings entered into either between non-arm’s length entities or between a branch and the rest of an enterprise with similar transactions that would have been entered into between arm’s length entities.

In reality, in all but a few cases, this is simply not possible because the MNE’s transactions / dealings cannot be matched with those of arm’s length parties. Therefore, taxpayers, their advisors and tax authorities are left trying to reconstruct, from largely dissimilar transactions or entities, what arm’s length parties would have done under similar circumstances. This exercise or reconstruction is, in the words of the OECD, “not an exact science”. Given the wide range of results and positions observes, one might remark that it does not appear to be a science at all.”

http://taxjustice.blogspot.ca/2012/06/another-expert-slams-oecd-transfer.html

#117 vreaa on 06.26.12 at 1:28 pm

Seller Psychology In A Falling Market –
“While the market may have sags, don’t hold your breath for the $600K plus houses to return to $200K ever again. It simply won’t happen, because nobody will sell for that kind of loss.”
[We disagree]
http://wp.me/pcq1o-4n7

#118 Ex-Edmonton Mortgage Broker on 06.26.12 at 1:29 pm

#108 Piccaso on 06.26.12 at 12:37 pm wrote:

Half of Canadians expect to be debt-free by 2017

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/06/half-of-canadians-expect-to-be-debt-free-by-2017/

hahahaha, the only way half of Canadians will be out of debt by 2017 is if half of Canadians declare bankruptcy.

#119 disciple on 06.26.12 at 1:34 pm

#112 Poorgoose…excellent points, well said. Keep in mind that unions were not originally grassroots movements, but were created by the Tory party in the UK as a controlled opposition device. You can see by the silly rules associated with how one is to go on strike, that it’s more than evident. I mean, if you want to go on strike, go on strike, there can logically be no legal requirements involved, except if there is reasonable physical damage to property or person. Back to work legislation is completely bogus. They control both sides, how is that even logical? And we sit here and believe everything that is jammed down our throats like it’s always been this way, nothing ever changes. Wake up, people. Everything can be changed tomorrow…

#120 jess on 06.26.12 at 1:39 pm

http://treasureislands.org/aggressive-tax-schemes-arent-just-immoral-they-can-be-dangerous-too/

e.g. Lee Hendrie admits suicide attempts | Mail Onlinewww.dailymail.co.uk/…/Lee-Hendrie-admits-suicide-attempts.htmlYou +1’d this publicly. Undo
13 May 2012 – Lee Hendrie has revealed he twice tried to commit suicide after building up debts of £1million. The former Aston Villa and England midfielder …

=
down under
Blog
Project Wickenby – notes, and a warning, from the inside track
April 20, 2011
By Nicholas Shaxson

#121 disciple on 06.26.12 at 1:39 pm

Daystar, I thought you were a Harper fan. Or just a central banker fan, then?

Junius, careful there big boy, you’re starting to sound like a wingnut conspiracy theorist “right wing smoke screen…has lead to crony corporatism taking over the world”. And you call me crazy. Capitalism runs the world, it’s the only thing that can. It’s shills like you that create problems. Get lost (in your own thoughts).

#122 Junius on 06.26.12 at 1:46 pm

#107 Daystar,

You asked,”Why you blame unions and civil servant salaries for Canada’s current struggles are beyond me.”

This is the great right wing obfuscation. We all know that entitlement programs are in danger. Everyone knows that salaries are too high in many industries and gov’t employees will continue to be a prime target. Fine.

Of course, they are a symptom and not the cause. However the people responsible can point their finger at them as the cause and get the population all worked up about over paid firefighters while they get bailed out with billions.

#123 Devore on 06.26.12 at 1:51 pm

#18 Canadian Watchdog

Chart: Ontario Rent Guideline vs CPI http://postimage.org/image/l1kvh2b53/

If you have a chart for _actual_ increases (I think Sauder has the rental market data) that would be handy too. We know that in Vancouver rents haven’t gone up anywhere near the allowed amount, and in most years in the last decade they have gone down in real terms.

That rents haven’t kept up with house prices, that they haven’t even kept up with inflation, is a clear sign of the level of speculation afoot. Also shows us that incomes, the primary determinant of rent, haven’t gone anywhere either.

#124 From Mississauga With Love on 06.26.12 at 1:53 pm

#55 Gmaz

the problem is that people don’t understand that people will “invent” money from somewhere to cover the cost of buying homes____________________

please share with me, ignorant as I am, just how people are inventing money…”

They will take on second jobs, send their wife to work, withdraw money from their overseas bank account, start to state “truer” earnings (if they are self-employed) etc…. long list….

#125 Mike on 06.26.12 at 1:53 pm

#56 Superman
New Port Mann Bridge will save 210 hours of lost time a year, so $1 per hour is worth it. You only save a few minutes of commute North of the Fraser as narrow roads and numerous traffic lights curtail savings on gas. Sorry, which neighborhoods are classless in Vancouver? You can name a few for sure, hint, around sky-train stations. I can’t afford to buy a house in Vancouver even price is halved to 1 Million Dollars, in good areas of course. By the way, $10K more on gas would get you to live in Abbotsford, not SURREY, where house and gas is a lot cheaper.

#126 Linda Pearson on 06.26.12 at 2:31 pm

#79 Beach Girl

Beach Girl, this one’s for you. I know you’ll understand it completely. Guys, you can zone out for a while:

Wife’s Diary:

Tonight, I thought my husband was acting weird. We had made plans to meet at a nice restaurant for dinner. I was shopping with my friends all day long, so I thought he was upset at the fact that I was a bit late, but he made no comment on it. Conversation wasn’t flowing, so I suggested that we go somewhere quiet so we could talk. He agreed, but he didn’t say much.

I asked him what was wrong; He said, ‘Nothing..’ I asked him if it was my fault that he was upset He said he wasn’t upset, that it had nothing to do with me, and not to worry about it. On the way home, I told him that I loved him. He smiled slightly, and kept driving. I can’t explain his behaviour. I don’t know why he didn’t say, ‘I love you, too.’

When we got home, I felt as if I had lost him completely, as if he wanted nothing to do with me anymore. He just sat there quietly, and watched TV. He continued to seem distant and absent. Finally, with silence all around us, I decided to go to bed. About 15 minutes later, he came to bed. But I still felt that he was distracted, and his thoughts were somewhere else. He fell asleep; I cried. I don’t know what to do. I’m almost sure that his thoughts are with someone else. My life is a disaster.

Husband’s Diary:

A five putt…who the hell five putts?

#127 John on 06.26.12 at 2:42 pm

Disciple wrote:

“Junius, careful there big boy, you’re starting to sound like a wingnut conspiracy theorist “right wing smoke screen…has lead to crony corporatism taking over the world”. And you call me crazy. Capitalism runs the world, it’s the only thing that can. It’s shills like you that create problems. Get lost (in your own thoughts).”
——

Disciple’s style of denial is one of the things I wasn’t expecting. Facts right in front of his face and he doesn’t see them. Except now it’s at a whole other level, and he still doesn’t see them. Which is kind of fascinating to watch in a way.

It’s a defence mechanism…a profound denial of reality like that is sincere. It’s important to remember that it’s a hermetically sealed belief system, and move on to where debate is possible.

#128 truth hammer on 06.26.12 at 2:51 pm

Nut farming was particularily productive today. Nice. How it is that persons one would think are intelligent in isolation have been so skewered by a liberal education and the liberal biases as expressed in the classrooms by nutbar liberal profs ….that they can’t think about what was crammed down there throats by liberal professors who were themselves appointed and tenured by the liberal administration? I can’t believe that as adults these same people continue to parrot the liberal platform of the 70’s and 80’s.

Guys….paying the civil service wankers 100% of entire ministry budgets is bad business….it has nothing to do with your politics. How long can Canada sustain debt/gdp at over 100%? Will you only wake up when you have to move into a communal loghouse and turn your paycheques over to the local commissar?

Comrades….you have been lied to…wake up. When Trudeau’s dad sent the coast guard to rescue his son Pierre from paddling his kayak to Cuba that should have been the first clue that the guy was not cut out to lead a line up for the porta potties.

Ditch the socialist dogma, lets get real. High school is over.

#129 patiently waiting on 06.26.12 at 3:03 pm

#100John on 06.26.12 at 11:30 am
Observer wrote:

“The facts show that U.S. house prices have bottomed.”

—————————————————————-
Wrongo . . . like most sheeple you failed to dig deeper to find out the truth . . . best to your homework next time . . .

There are roughly 19 million vacant dwellings in the U.S., of which around 4 million are second homes and a million or two are on the market. Let’s stipulate that several million more are in areas with very low demand (i.e. few want to live there year-round). Let’s also stipulate that several million more are in the “shadow inventory” of homes that are neither on the market nor even officially in the foreclosure pipeline, i.e. zombie homes. Even if you account for 9 million of these homes, that still leaves 10 million vacant dwellings in the U.S. which could be occupied. That means 1 in 12 of all dwellings are vacant . . . .

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-some-thoughts-investing-bottom-housing

#130 Junius on 06.26.12 at 3:03 pm

#124 Mike,

You said, “New Port Mann Bridge will save 210 hours of lost time a year, so $1 per hour is worth it.”

This is on the day it opens. That number will steadily move downwards for years as new homes are built to take advantage of the changes. This is the problem with any transportation solution designed entirely for the automobile.

See Toronto or LA for the future.

#131 Junius on 06.26.12 at 3:11 pm

#120 disciple,

You calling anyone a conspiracy theorist is just beyond belief.

You said,”Capitalism runs the world, it’s the only thing that can.”

Which form of capitalism are you talking about? This is the problem. You and the other polemics think there is only one form and you buy the “free markets” crap as gospel.

I am a capitalist but I believe that 2 fundamental principles need to put ahead of “profit” or the “freedom” as the apologists proclaim. First of all, corporations need to serve the good of society. Currently we have it backwards.

Secondly, the best part of capitalism is that is spurs innovation through competition. Therefore where competition does not exist there is no capitalism or at least non worth supporting.

Most of our major industries from energy to manufacturing to media to financial institutions contain large companies who spend more time and money on creating monopolies than they do on innovating or providing better products. They are the ones who give capitalism a bad name.

#132 randman on 06.26.12 at 3:16 pm

Inflation or Deflation?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino062612.html

#133 zeeman on 06.26.12 at 3:21 pm

at gmaz

if you are holding out because you want prices to drop 50%, well that wont happen in mississauga….maybe 10-20 percent but 50% to take you to the prices of when you were a kid then forget it.

prices have started to fall…..speak to any honest realtor and he will tell you that prices are less compared to a couple of months ago and prices will stay on this trend going forward…..

if you want save a little then hold out but if you want to buy the house for 50% then i think you need to stop dreaming this because it will not happen in mississauga…

#134 jess on 06.26.12 at 3:26 pm

117 Ex-Edmonton Mortgage Broker maybe the poll /survey was produced by robot news generator

this is happening here i received 2
=====

CINCINNATI – Just in time for election season an opinion poll scam is targeting Tri-State residents claiming to offer a free cruise in exchange for completing a short questionnaire.

The automated call states that after the completion of a short survey the participant will receive a free two day cruise to the Bahamas.

The “catch” is that they want your credit card number to pay for “port fees and taxes.”

Read more: http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/news/local_news/opinion-poll-scam-hits-tri-state#ixzz1yveleyhL

#135 Debtfree on 06.26.12 at 3:30 pm

Is it me or does anyone else notice how inept the Feds are at almost everything they touch . With the earthquake in haite the feds had a huge response . One roof in a mall collapses and the people inside languish for three days dying minute by minute . Or maybe they just want to make the Ontario government look bad . It’s a blood disgrace . Literally ! In any other civilize country in the world the leader would be there front and center . Ours is celebrating and sucking up. I guess Canadian lives are getting cheaper and cheaper . Like who needs protection in the Vancouver harbor. Maybe someone should tell them that there are realtors on boats in the harbor. Inept at best.

#136 bubble head on 06.26.12 at 3:40 pm

#116 vreaa
I agree with your disagree.

Since the 08/09 crisis housing market up 50%
Average resale Home price – January 09-$350- today $525
Normal growth maybe 2-4% a year (6-12% total)
So I understand why people call for a 40% correction.
how much has wages increased?

Maybe the people who bought in the last two years won’t want to reduce their home price by 40%, but if you lost your job and have kids, got a divorce or your retiring – you will have no other option ( if you can’t find the greater fool).

#137 armpit on 06.26.12 at 3:45 pm

Okay….been reading this blog for a couple of months. In my opinion, it seems the perfect storm is coming in real estate.

First Wave….

Reducing loan qualifications (coming in July). First timers will now have to wait and rent (as boomers did in the 70’s)

2nd Wave….

Increasing interest rates….(u/k timeframe, but inevitably sooner than later) Look out for people having to renew their mortgages at 5 or 6 percent.

3rd Wave….

Boomers selling their homes, secondary homes, and cottages. (Now to the next 15 or more years)

With higher interest rates, virgin owners unable to renew their mortgage, and influx of monster homes for sale by the feeble boomers, THIS WILL BE THE FLOOD.

My second opinion….don’t believe everything you read!

#138 so it begins on 06.26.12 at 3:53 pm

does the increase expansion of Canadian banks lead anyone to believe that soon they will be moving the majority of their operations (jobs) into the US when it their US operations becomes larger and more profitable?

its all about the unemployment rate

#139 Junius on 06.26.12 at 3:54 pm

#127 truth hammer,

More of your right wing polemic spew. Can you put a coherent argument together that does not rely on unproven assumptions? I expect not.

It is not very compelling to claim that others are brain washed when you are so clearly brain washed yourself.

#140 Two-thirds on 06.26.12 at 4:09 pm

So now that the predictions are about to turn true, would anyone be interested in discussing other topics to pass the time?

For instance, there is a growing supply of gently used luxury vehicles in Alberta, “selling” at very attractive prices right now (they are not actually selling, but being offered for sale, and sitting in the lot).

Any tips on how to vultch these? Liquidity and savings make it a very tempting proposition to buy a high-quality, low mileage luxury vehicle with cash – prices have not been this low in a while, courtesy of ZIRP…

#141 unbalanced on 06.26.12 at 4:13 pm

To 128 Patiently Waiting. Your comments are right on. If housing was or is such a great bargain, why aren’t more rich and well off Americans buying?

#142 NoName on 06.26.12 at 4:24 pm

@ truth hammer

This Day in Labor History: June 26, 1894

http://goo.gl/nrZg5

its not the unions, its inept management that is a problem…

#143 First to last on 06.26.12 at 4:26 pm

Garth with the changes in the cash back mortgages for down payment does that also include cash back for renos as well?

#144 Useless mortgage borkers criminals in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 06.26.12 at 4:42 pm

From Mississauga With Love on 06.26.12 at 1:53 pm #55 Gmaz

the problem is that people don’t understand that people will “invent” money from somewhere to cover the cost of buying homes____________________

please share with me, ignorant as I am, just how people are inventing money…”

They will take on second jobs, send their wife to work, withdraw money from their overseas bank account, start to state “truer” earnings (if they are self-employed) etc…. long list….
——————————————————————–

Mississauga With Love you delusional realtors are either stupid or funny. Mississauga is going to crash 50% when all is said and done. Take CHMC away and prices crash 50% right off the bat OVERNIGHT. The market was inflated with people who have NO MONEY. People will borrow MILLIONS of dollars if an idiot(taxpayer) is willing to do so but by no means do people have money to buy houses. People can not even come up with 5%. People are going to go BANKRUPT as the housing crash snowballs. Nothing can stop this ponzi from crashing back to 3-3.5 times income vs the current 7-8 times income (bubble) look for a 50% crash! . Canada will CRASH back down to 3-3.5 times income JUST LIKE THE US as Canada’s housing bubble is BIGGER then the US housing bubble. Canada should have an even HARDER HOUSING CRASH!

#145 Fodorian on 06.26.12 at 5:40 pm

I lost my shirt too in the US housing crisis in 2006. The turn of events and little signs I see everywhere around me in GTA are like a flashback- “Will buy your house for cash”, “Sell gold for cash”, “Debt consolidation…”, houses around me which rent for 1800 trying to sell for 550k, frustrated sellers dumping their realtors to go with one of those 99centstosell companies so they can reduce their asking price, layoffs everywhere you look.
I was at the prey side of a predatory sale when I sold my home in Charlotte, NC. This time I am waiting to be on the predator side here in the GTA. When the prices drop 15%, walk in with an offer further reduced from the asking price and ask the seller to respond within 72 hours- the first 24 hours the seller will be angry, the next 24 hours seller will step back and think, last 24 hours hours the seller will decline or accept the offer.

#146 luke8929 on 06.26.12 at 6:12 pm

For those sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash I hope your jobs are secure and won’t be affected by the loss of billions of dollars of household wealth that won’t find its way into the real economy. If its as bad as some predict businesses will close, jobs will be lost and you may be using your savings for something other than vultching real estate in a couple of years. Look South, the crash was accompanied by job losses, business closures, more off shoring, and towns raising property taxes to cover expenses. Can you say Pan American Free Trade deal? Look and see what your job pays in China if you want a glimpse of the future. Pension? just saw the annual return on a public servants BC pension, return for 2011? 2.5% after 3 previous years in the 5% range. So unless you can say its for the Children or Public safety, them darn terrorists, your job isn’t safe. Be careful what you wish for you just might get it.

#147 BPOE's BrainFart on 06.26.12 at 6:13 pm

WAIT!

That horrible stench ?

BPOE just had another random thought…….

#148 Mr. Anderson on 06.26.12 at 6:22 pm

#125 Linda Pearson

1. Men don’t keep a diary…..at best a journal perhaps.

2. Why are you reading his journal?

3. “A five putt…..who the hell five putts?” no further explanation required.

#149 Keith in Calgary on 06.26.12 at 6:27 pm

On my morning drive here in Calgary I cut thru a trendy inner city neighbourhood known as Altadore.

It’s the typical tear down kind of place where $700K cardboard infill shacks now occupy what once used to be huge green yards full o fnice mature trees and beautiful character homes. On one segment of the street I always take, about 10 blocks long, there are 4 huge holes in the ground that suddenly have all the yellow iron removed, the contractors are long gone, and those large metal fences have gone up around the lots, indicating that everything has stopped cold in it’s tracks.

Funny ‘dat.

#150 live within your means on 06.26.12 at 6:28 pm

TOT – My elder sis & I are celebrating our 25th wedding anniversary today. Yesterday her hubby’s Mom died & my MIL just spent a week in the hospital. We planned on going out to dinner together tonight, but events changed. Instead, DH is making his version of moulls marieniers which we & others love – enough to fill us up. Doorbell just rang – huge plant was delivered from my French side of the family in Canada and France. They didn’t forget our 25th !!!!.

On a funnier note, I didn’t buy a 25th for my DH but got a card that says on the front “Marriage is like a toilet seat. On the inside a toilet seat pops up & the wording says: It has its share of Ups & Downs”. We sure have gone through many of them.

#151 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.26.12 at 6:45 pm


#79 Beach Girl and #125 Linda Pearson — Five putt? “Men are funny, they think weird” Good call. If I were you, I wouldn’t have anything to do with me, as you’re women and I am nothing more than a worthless old bag of bones. I would be just as happy to settle with O.J. Simpson’s US$25K / month pension, but he can have the prison cell.
*
Upon further investigation, it was found that the Giant Crystal Pyramid, discovered in the Bermuda Triangle is where the US Fed’s printing presses are located, and 3D holographic images of replacement clones of various forms of humanity are what live up here. Now that problem is solved (men aren’t), humanity can rest assured that everything, regardless of what it is, is now completely submerged in the earth’s sewage system.

It also (possibly) includes The Walking Statues of Easter Island. Easter Island, the Cook Islands, Fiji, the Hawaiian Islands, the Galapagos and the Tahitian Islands are the last remaining vestiges of The Lost Continent of Mu, a.k.a. Lemuria.
*
60 mln. Euros stolen Was this the real cause of the Bank Holiday? Democratic Banking? “President Garfield once said that whoever controls the supply of currency and bank credit will largely control all American business.”, Toledo, Ohio “So we will continue to bleed wealth, businesses and jobs at an astounding pace.” plus 22 Statistics that show the American Dream is a pipe dream; Der Spielgel Euro crash? Two Hands from 1909; NatWest and India Outsourcing crashes? Blame someone else; The Euro Huh? Italy Lotsa wants, no needs; Stockton, CA Mismanaging funds?
*
10:35 clip Lord Monckton is right — global govt., and Losing Sovereignty Hence, the NAU – SPP; Data on Star Trek: TNG This would make him as completely clueless as we are; TSA on Intelligence Bus Not sure who they’re looking for; FB Status update! 13:11 clip Ron Paul supporters prohibited from GOP Party; GE Mosquitoes released in Oz town. Are GE humans next? Depop? One way of doing it; Erdogan “I don’t recall Turkey making such a fuss when Israel murdered 8 Turkish aid workers in international waters!” wrh.com; Pakistan – India “More attempts at “divide and conquer” strategy, I see.” wrh.com.

#152 a prairie dawg on 06.26.12 at 6:58 pm

People forgot all about real life for awhile. Thought that TV and their friends were so smart. That oh so fickle ‘consumer sentiment’ took a back seat to living way above their means on cheap and easy credit. For many, living the lie was easier than facing the truth.
It’s different here? No, stupidity and greed are the same all over.

Looks like reality is creeping back though, just a bit late.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/26/canadians-faith-in-economy-and-job-creation-falls-sharply-survey/

#153 Goethe on 06.26.12 at 6:58 pm

“Knowing is not enough; we must apply.
Willing is not enough; we must do.”

#154 2centsCdn on 06.26.12 at 7:06 pm

#125 Linda Pearson/#79 Beach Girl

re: “Men think weird” It’s all about priorities.

pre-PS …. most guys would kill themselves if they 5 putted (as well they should : )

A Letter to the Men’s Helpline:

Hi Men’s Helpline, I really need your advice on a serious problem:

I have suspected for some time now that my wife has been cheating on me.

The usual signs: if the phone rings and I answer, the caller hangs up; she goes out with the girls a lot.

I try to stay awake to look out for her when she comes home but I usually fall asleep.

Anyway last night about midnight I hid in the shed behind the boat.

When she came home she got out of someone’s car buttoning her blouse, then she took her panties out of her purse and slipped them on.

It was at that moment crouched behind the boat that I noticed a hairline crack in the outboard engine mounting bracket.

Is that something I can weld or do I need to replace it?

#155 Tony on 06.26.12 at 7:39 pm

Re: #143 Useless mortgage borkers criminals in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 06.26.12 at 4:42 pm

Mississauga and Brampton will both be ghost towns when this housing crash is done. I remember Georgetown around the mid 19080’s when all that was left were banks, gas stations and a few pool halls. Both Mississauga and Brampton will probably crash around 70 percent along with Vancouver and Victoria as the four cities with the biggest percentage loss.

#156 Tony on 06.26.12 at 7:47 pm

Re: #132 Zeeman on 06.26.12 at 3:21 pm

I’d bet heavy that both Mississauga and Brampton will be among the cities with the biggest percentage loss in all of Canada. A loss on the order of around 70 percent from the top to the bottom in both cities. Both will be ghost towns when the Canadian housing crash is over.

#157 Herb on 06.26.12 at 7:48 pm

#134 Debtfree,

don’t blame the Feds for inaction at Elliot Lake. Response to the mall collapse is a municipal/provincial responsibility in which the Feds will play a major supporting role – IF and WHEN asked. So ask the Province what they asked for at what time before accusing the Feds of trying to make the Ontario Government look bad.

#158 Herb on 06.26.12 at 7:58 pm

Truth Hammerer,

to borrow from the Bard, “Aroint, Roach!”

#159 The American on 06.26.12 at 7:59 pm

Actually, U.S. home prices ARE rising again. Regardless of excess inventory, prices have stabilized. The bottom of prices consideres the excess inventory on the market, much of which is being demolished to remove it all together. If you want to talk facts, let’s talk facts. We can stipulate all we want here, but the fact is prices in the U.S. are slowly creeping up again. If you live in larger, more prosperous markets, this data indicates larger swings upward in home prices while inventory is sitting a near all-time lows (aka Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, etc.).

Cash Shiller is correct in their latest data. Period.

#160 Devore on 06.26.12 at 8:00 pm

#76 john

The amendment was supposed to at least give landlords a minimum 1% annual increase but that is gone. It’s just got that much harder to make a return on renting in Ontario!

I am no fan of rent controls, but the “cap” is irrelevant, as in every market with rent increase controls, rents have never risen anywhere close to the allowed amount, particularly gloomy fact when you consider there is usually no control on rent increase between tenants.

If you want to get into this business, price your service at market, and increase it by the maximum every year. You’ll be competing with landlords who are raising their rents by zero (or even decreasing rents), because they need to hold on to their tenants whose monthly checks they need to make ends meet.

#161 Devore on 06.26.12 at 8:10 pm

#88 YagginHT

$200k over asking

And similar houses in the area are listed for the same amount this one sold for. Maybe if they listed for $1 you’d be crowing about how it sold for more than $1,000,000 over asking? Also, good job picking an area of Toronto with very few listings.

You are quite the useful idiot.

#162 Devore on 06.26.12 at 8:25 pm

#128 patiently waiting

There are roughly 19 million vacant dwellings in the U.S., of which around 4 million are second homes and a million or two are on the market.

Which only shows prices aren’t going to be going up anytime soon. But I think that nationally, and locally in many areas, prices are within a few percent of bottoming out. We are now seeing investors, primarily cash buyers, purchasing income properties. These people are buying to make money, not to subsidize a bunch of students while they live upstairs. Investors ultimately put a floor under real estate prices. Once they can make a return that beats other forms of income (such as government and corporate bonds) on a risk adjusted basis, prices don’t have much more to fall. Again, this is very regional. In some areas the declines are still well under way.

As the saying goes, buy when there’s blood in the streets. But don’t wait for the bleeding to stop, because there is such a thing as opportunity cost.

#163 TurnerNation on 06.26.12 at 8:25 pm

RIM is the new Nortel!

#164 Useless mortgage borkers criminals in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 06.26.12 at 9:32 pm

luke8929 #145

What most of us blog dogs want is the free and open market to price housing not communist fascist CHMC. You realtors and mortgage brokers are feeding off the taxpayers to the tune of 600 BILLION dollars and this money can not and will never be paid back. Let the markets and economy crash to normal level JUST LIKE THE US. US is getting all their jobs back but inorder to do that housing had to crash 50 or more%.

#165 Grooby. on 06.26.12 at 9:41 pm

I thought I knew was ignorant was… Then I read (anything by) Truth Hammer.

As a born and raised Albertan, I assure you, there is ‘no’ Liberal brainwashing.

I would hate to live in the compassion-less world that you envision. Perhaps we shouldn’t teach kids to share their toys anymore, since that’s obviously socialist.

#166 Smoking Man on 06.26.12 at 9:42 pm

#98 Useless mortgage borkers criminals in an ALL OUT PANIC! on 06.26.12 at 10:59 am

Idiot you hyper link takes you to the north american view

#167 a prairie dawg on 06.26.12 at 9:43 pm

#162 TurnerNation

– — –

But without the accounting ‘irregularities’…

#168 MD on 06.26.12 at 9:53 pm

Housing bubble should have been deflated as soon as the first bidding war happened in Canada. Now we are too late in the game so time to buckle up and tighten a little more, close ur eyes and enjoy the Leviathn ride.

#169 timbo on 06.26.12 at 10:15 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-27/housing-exuberance-led-by-shiller-s-u-s-glamorous-cities.html

“Overall, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 1.9 percent in April from a year earlier, the smallest decline since November 2010, after decreasing 2.6 percent in the year ended March. The median forecast of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 2.5 percent drop.

The index’s co-creator said he remains encouraged.

“There are signs of strength,” said Shiller, who is based in New Haven, Connecticut. Still, surveys of home buyers show a continued lowering of expectations on prices, he said. “Those expectations have just been down, down, down steadily.”

I guess judging the overall market by the glamor cities screams rebound and a roaring back in prices…………

#170 Infrastructure on 06.26.12 at 10:41 pm

Re Port Mann bridge…. sure no more bottle neck however once all these cars come zooming off the #1 onto Grandview highway for example it will just bottle neck further down the line right in the city, watch out 12th ave etc etc, stupid idea should have expanded the skytrain out to abbotsford, like they say build it and they will come, more volume to hit the #1, they just took two steps forward and 9 backwards once its completed.

Barf

#171 Mr Buyer on 06.27.12 at 12:04 am

#158 The American on 06.26.12 at 7:59 pm
Actually, U.S. home prices ARE rising again. Regardless of excess inventory, prices have stabilized. The bottom of prices consideres the excess inventory on the market, much of which is being demolished to remove it all together. If you want to talk facts, let’s talk facts. We can stipulate all we want here, but the fact is prices in the U.S. are slowly creeping up again. If you live in larger, more prosperous markets, this data indicates larger swings upward in home prices while inventory is sitting a near all-time lows (aka Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, etc.).

Cash Shiller is correct in their latest data. Period.
………………………………………………………….
Dude, you are on crack if you are saying housing is recovering in the states. 30 year fixed low interest mortgages is not recovery mode. sorry.