Shed lust

You know we have a problem when a guy thinks he can rent his garden shed for $1,000 a month.

But there it is. A grand for 227 square feet in an outbuilding behind a house in a raggedy middle-class area of Toronto. One little room and a bath (when the drywall mud is dry), but with “access to large garden and patio.” Since the place is in the backyard, that’s not a big amenity. You likely also get the family dog, plus exclusive access to the clothesline.

Interested? Bring a cheque for first and last, sign a lease and move in at the end of the month. But no pets. The racoons will bitch.

Or, you can rent this house – three bedrooms and three baths with a double car garage, two storeys and a backyard – in Mississauga for $500 a month more. If you don’t mind the poor owner living in the basement.

The Vancouverization of Toronto continues. In case you’re unsure what that means, it’s not good. Real estate prices march higher until they reach a point where the average family can no longer buy the average house – at least not without assuming unrepayable debt, sharing your houses with strangers or tricking a student into occupying your shed. That, plus cheapo mortgage rates, sustain prices for a while until the inevitable happens – like now in BC.

Here’s Jake, and a little example of the life choices that inflated prices and the nesting instinct bring:

Hi Garth: I’m currently facing a serious dilemma.  My wife and I bought a 1000 sqft, 2 bedroom+den condo, pre-construction, right across from High Park in Toronto a few years back for about $425K after upgrades and extras.  It is now worth about $530K as far as we can determine based on recent sales in our building.  We have one three-year old son and another child on the way in September of this year, and we are starting to feel the space squeeze.  With the equity in our condo plus savings we probably have about $325K for a down payment on a house, but as we have been searching over the past year we have watched three-bedroom detached houses in the area climb to ridiculous average prices of about $900K.  We need to stay in the area because of the need to care for aging parents nearby and because my wife needs subway access.  Our combined average income is about $180K/year.  The way I see it, we have three options:

1.)  Sell the condo, hold our noses and buy a house for much more than it is really worth, so that we can get settled and have a stable, more spacious home for our growing family.
2.)  Sell the condo,  rent, invest the proceeds, and wait for SFH prices to come down.
3.)  Hold on to the condo and hope for the best – i.e. that the price of our condo, because it is relatively large by current Toronto standards and in a very desirable location will not fall out of proportion to SFH prices in the area and that we will be on similar relative footing in future (house price minus condo price) with some time to also save more money for a larger down payment.

Now as a reader of your blog I assume that #2 makes the most practical sense, but the thought of having to move twice with a pregnant and/or nursing wife and a couple of small kids is very daunting.   Adding to the uncertainty is the prevailing opinion that houses in sought-after areas like High Park are “recession-proof”, and that prices are unlikely to fall substantially even if there is a national or city-wide correction in housing prices.  This makes option #1 seem most appealing, as we can get the equity out of our condo now and lock into a 10-year mortgage at 3.8%.  Option 3 seems to have no advantages whatsoever that I can see, although we are leaning towards it because we are exhausted from getting regularly destroyed in area bidding wars.

Help! Are areas like High Park, Leaside, etc. really “recession-proof” or “bubble-proof”?  And even if prices in the area drop by 10-15 percent (which seems unlikely given the unbelievable demand), if interest rates go up by a couple of points aren’t we better off buying right now with insanely low 10-year mortgage rates?  Do we stand to lose more if we hold on the condo and wait to buy than by selling it and buying a SHF now?

What should Jake & wife do?  Well, if they buy a house in the area for $900,000, and dump all their cash into it, they’ll end up with a mortgage of $600,000 and 100% of their net worth in one asset. That means no diversification, no retirement savings, no college fund for the kids and monthly living costs which obviously spiral higher. Risk.

But if they don’t sell the condo and realize their tax-free capital gain, more risk. This is the kind of property most likely to suffer a price decline, regardless of location. With 53,000 condos in the pipeline and 15,000 empty units already in the market, there’s no doubt where valuations are headed. Selling now could be the last opportunity to harvest a windfall.

What about location? Will traditional demand areas in Toronto plunge?

I’ve answered that already. It’s no. Although listings in the GTA have taken a big jump, sheer demand in these parts of 416 will keep values flat, while they wobble and fade elsewhere and in 905. Waiting for the $900,000 house (which is $928,000 with land transfer tax) to turn into a $700,000 property is a flawed strategy. So face facts, Jake.  You and your wife are outgunned.

It’s obvious from your existing net worth, a third of which is unearned real estate gain, that you’re already spending most of the $180,000 you make. Plus, your wife is about to go on another mat leave – then face the decision of returning to work with two infants at home. Sounds like income could be an issue just as debt and costs inflate.

So, pick option 4. It’s called ‘compromise.’ Sell and move into a place you can actually afford.

What your family needs in the long run is not a mortgaged house in a swishy demand area, but a home that comes with financial stability – money in the bank, pension funds, an RESP, brimming tax-free accounts and stability. So what if it takes 15 minutes longer to visit parents? And your wife’s leaving work in eight weeks anyway. Man up, and stop justifying something you want, but don’t need.

Or, get a house with a big garden shed.

249 comments ↓

#1 $B$P$O$E$ on 06.17.12 at 5:54 pm

When your manhood and self worth are tied up to what the neighbours wagging tongues say.

You deserve the shallow woman and all the trouble it brings.

Best of luck with all that. One way ticket up the CN tower or if you cant afford that. Niagra Falls barrel ride is free.

#2 tkid on 06.17.12 at 5:59 pm

Jake, sell the condo and rent in the same building. This makes moving easier, and if you get lucky you may get a buyer willing to rent your old condo to you.

Wait for the resulting housing crash and vulch when you feel the time is right.

#3 tkid on 06.17.12 at 6:00 pm

I can’t believe the balls of the owner of the garden shed – there is no way in hell that is a legal unit.

#4 Mark W on 06.17.12 at 6:21 pm

https://riot2011.vpd.ca/

In Vancouver it is now the one year anniversary of the Stanley Cup riots.
It’s all over the news here.

Vancouver … a city that has the guts of it’s middle class ripped right out of it.
BC = Bring Cash.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11822502&PidKey=-926809418

Is one thing connected to the other?

Me thinks yes.

#5 Steven Rowlandson on 06.17.12 at 6:26 pm

$1000 a month to rent a glorified garden shed?
If there was any doubt about the real estate cult and cultists being cuckoo this removes all doubt good and proper. What is next , portable buildings that are no bigger than portable toilets being promoted as affordable cottages? If they are fitted with pontoons you can have an affordable house boat. It is utter diabolical madness!

#6 Ugh on 06.17.12 at 6:28 pm

Way to play all sides of a discussion Garth.

– first crash
– then melt
– now wobble and fade

This from the fellow who talks about manhood daily. Snark.

It’s OK to change your mind and it’s OK to be wrong. But waffling and pretending you called it all along, no matter what happens is decidedly weak.

You’re right. There will be one giant homogenous event affecting all markets equally. Is that better, or do you want the truth? — Garth

#7 Dave on 06.17.12 at 6:33 pm

Jake, a house is just a house. Like Garth said, buy one that you can actually afford so that you can still go on holidays and have savings for retirement, education, etc. With a mortgage that size and a wife on mat leave you’ll never have money to do anything or to put away for your future savings.

#8 Investx on 06.17.12 at 6:34 pm

Will demand areas in Toronto plunge?

I’ve answered that already. It’s no. Although listings in the GTA have taken a big jump, sheer population demands in 416 will keep values flat, while they wobble and fade in 905. Waiting for the $900,000 house (which is $928,000 with land transfer tax) to turn into a $700,000 property is a flawed strategy.
—————————————————————-

Holy mixed messages, Batman.

I guess it’s different in Toronto.

In parts of it. All markets are local. — Garth

#9 Marvelous Mississauga on 06.17.12 at 6:40 pm

“So what if it takes 15 minutes longer to visit parents?”

Hear, hear Garth. In my neck of the woods, a 5-10 minute drive along the QEW from Etobicoke gives you a nice 30 year home, across from a park, on a court, huge lot, highway access to 403/401 and the QEW. Homes like mine in swanky areas of Etobicoke a mere 5-10 drive away along the QEW will run you $500k more. Yes it does take us 15 minutes to visit the in-laws in Etobicoke but I’ll have my 500k working for me rather than sitting in a lesser home just to be in a “great” neighbourhood any day of the week.

#10 Finally on 06.17.12 at 6:40 pm

Hire movers each time, it will cost at less than your equity going to $0 when the bubble bursts.

#11 Gunboat Denier on 06.17.12 at 6:40 pm

“Or, you can rent this house – three bedrooms and three
baths with a double car garage, two storeys and a
backyard – in Mississauga for $500 a month more. If you
don’t mind the poor owner living in the basement”

Garth – its a semi, and you get the upper floor. Not a shed, but not exactly a castle either.

Upper two floors. — Garth

#12 Hammocked_Up on 06.17.12 at 6:48 pm

Good thing there’s free Wi-fi, because that place is definitely not going to facilitate mating rituals of any kind.

On the other hand, for those looking for a cozy lair from which they can pen a lengthy manifesto…

#13 David Wallace on 06.17.12 at 6:52 pm

I’m confused. You say (regarding demand neighbourhoods in Toronto): “Although listings in the GTA have taken a big jump, sheer population demands in 416 will keep values flat, while they wobble and fade in 905.” And yet, I’ve never heard you say anything similar about demand neighbourhoods in Vancouver. If I’ve read your commentary correctly, all Vancouver properties will experience a drop in prices of some significant measure, although some more than others. What makes demand neighbourhoods in Toronto a safer investment? Do you actually think population demographics are more supportive in Toronto than in Vancouver?

Van properties carry a huge and unsustainable premium already, and the urban area is a third the size of the GTA. Of course prices will deflate. — Garth

#14 Teresa on 06.17.12 at 6:54 pm

So 416 will not experience a price drop?! How is Toronto different from Vancouver, it seems that most areas of Vancouver are melting….? I’ve been trying to convince my husband for 6 months to keep waiting before buying along the Danforth, I’m waiting for at least a 20% drop. Predictions anyone?

A price drop is entirely possible in 416. But not a collapse. — Garth

#15 Derek R on 06.17.12 at 6:58 pm

Does that shed come with a parking space? Oh wait a minute, it is a parking space!

#16 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.17.12 at 7:02 pm

Even Vancouver stops at basement suites and laneway houses — this “garden shed bachelor” reaches an all-time low for housing in Canada.

Are we no longer a first-world country? Can people no longer live in buildings that were meant for humans and not lawnmowers?

shameful.

#17 Hoof - Hearted on 06.17.12 at 7:03 pm

ahhahhaaaa

Don’t laugh.

Near me, a guy bought a split level duplex and rents it out….usual scuzzy types.

At the side yard is a shed ..6 ft tall..my guess is 120 sq ft? . It is rented out as well..at night as you drive by and look over and see the TV on. No idea about bathing or having a leak or a dump, likely has to walk into the house.

#18 jess on 06.17.12 at 7:06 pm

Almost one-third (161,000) of the 503,000 private vehicle transactions last year were reported as gifts instead of sales. And an estimated 60,000 of those were between unrelated individuals. The recipient is listed on the form as “friend.” Sometimes: “Best friend.”

Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/life/British+Columbians+give+thousands+cars+friends+dodge/6706490/story.html#ixzz1y5tvzBwq

Almost one-third (161,000) of the 503,000 private vehicle transactions last year were reported as gifts instead of sales. And an estimated 60,000 of those were between unrelated individuals. The recipient is listed on the form as “friend.” Sometimes: “Best friend.”
========

#19 House Horny Housewife on 06.17.12 at 7:06 pm

Garth,

That is hilarious ! I was wondering what the picture had to do with the ad until I read further. Ha ha ha ! Can you please follow up and let us know if this guy gets a taker ?

As for the high park condo, I am not quite sure you are right on this one. Although I would be one of the first to put down condos as being the biggest waste of money since … well since … condos first came out, I do think that in THIS case, the location trumps the type of housing.

Depending on where exactly this condo is located (is it really right across from High Park ?!), I think it may very well even appreciate over the next few years, simply because of where it is located. As you yourself mentioned, houses in this area are most likely NOT going to depreciate due to the lovely neighbourhood (greenery, close to bloor west village with shops, restaurants and green grocers, 15 minutes by subway from downtown etc..). This means that a condo such as Jake’s will be a very attractive alternative for someone looking to move into the area who may not have 900K or more to throw down.

JAKE, DON’T BE A FOOL, keep the damned condo. The kids can share a bedroom, at least for a while (they are young). Then when they get older, you can sell the place for a larger profit and see what the market throws at you in terms of new digs. By then your situation will be quite different and perhaps moving out of the city will be more convenient. The 900K option would be the biggest mistake you ever made (unless you can find a job that makes half a million a year) and I am not sure a bank would qualify you anyway (banks are getting more and more careful these days).

Make it work and enjoy your upcoming new bundle of joy … just be sure to tell your wife that if she wants a third one, you will have to move out to Brampton into one of those cookie cutter semi detached thingies. Ich ! Just thinking about it makes me want to put a padlock on the bedroom door …

HHHW

#20 TaxHaven on 06.17.12 at 7:06 pm

I’m just curious…these people are LOADED. What do they actually DO that is worth C$180,000 annually?

Who are their customers? Who’s willing to pay them that much? Are they THAT irreplaceable?

With the deadweight of that enormous salary bill to be paid, how can whatever service or product they provide compete on price…?

#21 rp1 on 06.17.12 at 7:06 pm

Buy the house because if Vancouver has taught us anything, it’s going to 4 million.

#22 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.17.12 at 7:07 pm

The L.A. housing experience seems to align with Jake’s letter:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303665904577450603559739944.html?mod=personal_fin_newsreel

The couple in this article (currently renters, with serious emotional desires for buying) decide on buying in a cheaper neighbourhood instead of being “ripped off” in their more expensive area.

#23 TurnerNation on 06.17.12 at 7:10 pm

Realted to today’s blog post, and today, this is worth a read. A sobering read:

http://ht.ly/bq4Cu

Men, Money, and Kids
June 5, 2012 By Tom Matlack 18 Comments

Tom Matlack is a venture capitalist and a father. Guess where he has come closest to losing what’s truly important.
Let’s get a few things straight from the start.

1.My kids (ages 18, 16, 7) are the most important thing, along with my wife, in my life. I love them so much it hurts.
2.I work damn hard to make a lot of money.
3.I really don’t give a shit what anyone else thinks.
4.It has taken me decades to understand the importance of #3.


In early adulthood I fell into the version of manhood that was all about career. I had been a competitive rower in college and a hard drinker shortly thereafter. I went to business school and realized I was better than I ever expected at math and making people like me. By the time I was 30 I had become Chief Financial Officer of a large company that I took public and then sold 90 days later for $2 billion.

Only problem was that I had two baby children I barely knew.

#24 Lost cash on 06.17.12 at 7:13 pm

Garth will you take me on as a client?

#25 j shum on 06.17.12 at 7:13 pm

tkid – I don’t think renting in the same building. The prices in the area he wants is going to be stable if I read garth correctly. He wants to be near the parents, like me. Like me, the guy’s been out gunned. Don’t know if there is a place he can afford where he is sacrificing space. I’m renting for the rest of my life, or till my parents die and I don’t have to live near them any more.

He’s in a bit of a rock and a hard place.

#26 Observor on 06.17.12 at 7:17 pm

SELL TO RENT?

Used to be some people would rent to own.

Now we have tkos at number 2 suggesting he sell and rent it back. Good idea if he find a greater fool (which should be very easy).

#27 Observor on 06.17.12 at 7:19 pm

GREEK ELECTIONS

Apparently the good guys won the Greek Electiona dn Greece is safe from exiting the Euro (at least for the medium term such as a week).

Stock futures rose a little but are now dropping back. We may not even get any rise out of thge market tomorrow on this news. Though we would’a got a fall if the bad guys won.

#28 espressobob on 06.17.12 at 7:22 pm

Love the shed thing. Reminds me of the 80’s when interest rates where 20% and people bought anything they could get there hands on for the fear of never being able to afford a home. Reminds me of a lemming.

#29 a prairie dawg on 06.17.12 at 7:22 pm

“I’m currently facing a serious dilemma. My wife”

#30 bclandguy on 06.17.12 at 7:22 pm

#2 tkid, you have the perfect answer for Jake, Brilliant! for sure the same building is the way.

I’ve seen sheds like that renting in some areas near me for around 500.00, but are 350-400 sq.ft., not a bad place for a single person…..but a grand for 227 shocks me!

#31 James on 06.17.12 at 7:24 pm

garth, with the greeks election finalizing, will you share some wisdom tomorrow on that? looking forward to a fantastic picture!

#32 soho erectus on 06.17.12 at 7:25 pm

i have seen a family friend rent out sheds and covered porches for years.they are rich.all done without permits.how do people get away with that! balls i guess.

#33 CP on 06.17.12 at 7:26 pm

Sounds like a scenario facing my friend with a wife & newborn living just north of High Park in The Junction (super-hot market). Bought a 2+ bdrm row house for 270k 6 years ago, put a ton of work into it (my back is hurting from laying the sod this weekend), now similar places on his street are selling for 500K+ regularly. He doesn’t want to leave Toronto, but if he realizes his gains now he’ll have to sink them right back into another house at the currently inflated prices. Catch 22

#34 Mr Buyer on 06.17.12 at 7:29 pm

I have to agree that setting a time table on collapse as part of an investment strategy is not much of a strategy but lets just consider the assertion that demand in TO will maintain bubble prices. I will surrender only this, demand in TO will sustain bubble prices until it does not. 600 to 900k should not be the norm any where in Canada. There is no reason for it what so ever.

#35 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.17.12 at 7:30 pm


Cellphones A better use for them.
*
#217 Taipan — “Comes a time in all societies where they go to kick the can down the road and they find that the road has run out.”
— and —
#218 BC Bring Cash — “. . . the same stimulus advisers and consultants that advised Governments all over World are now busy lobbying Govt’s. to turn on the austerity measures so the Bankters can now buy public assets pennies on the dollar.”

In so doing, they become wealthier at our expense, but there comes a moment in time when sheeple are exhausted enough to say no more. Chances are we’re close to that point now.

#244 TurnerNation — “USA is well becoming an open air factory work camp. I fully expect Harper within the next 5 years to gut our health care system, with no reduction in taxes.” — Ah so Quasimodo, you have seen the light! Praise be! One thing to remember” Harper, Rae and Mulcair are all self-proclaimed zionists first, so their duty and obligation is not to Canada, but someone else.

#246 Timing is Everything — Hi TiE. Better believe that drones will replace (roughly) 2/3 of police within a decade. Good reason why the UN (Agenda 21 – One World Disorder), Soros / Obama are trying to confiscate guns.

With drones in the sky (armed, of course) there will be little need for cops down here.

#284 Timing is Everything — “The Monsanto house of the ‘future’…” — Prefer bunking in the shed on today’s post!

#285 Blacksheep, daystar and others — “I haven’t voted in twenty years.”

See response to Turner Nation just prior. When Stephane Dion was in charge of the Libs., I voted for the Libs. Now, back to the Greens.
*
One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest is a terrific movie, which still holds its own.

The Cuckoo’s Nest reminds me of Garth’s bunker. Us bloggers are the inmates. Garth is more the shrink, sorting everyone out, but I’m not sure who would be qualified to play Nurse Ratchet. Any suggestions?
*
#2 tkid has the right idea, along with Jake’s second idea. Extra income would be more than sufficient to pay the rent + any other expenses. Then one income should suffice.

#36 Regan on 06.17.12 at 7:35 pm

Right now $900K homes in desirable Toronto areas are being bid up to over 1M in the sales wars. Forget about them dropping to $700K, if they even just stayed put at the list price there will be a de facto 10% drop in the market.

#37 Dan in Victoria on 06.17.12 at 7:37 pm

Educational disarmament.

#38 Debtfree on 06.17.12 at 7:37 pm

Greek election kicking goldbugs right in the nuggets . I guess they’ll have to whine about Spain for a while now . Btw bugs it’s not the end of the euro . Couldn’t see that coming .

#39 guava.ca on 06.17.12 at 7:39 pm

100% agree with Garth. Sell the condo and buy something you can safely afford. Between condo and detached there is row house and semi.

#40 NFN_NLN on 06.17.12 at 7:41 pm

Same guy from Ad is also renting a basement suite.

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-apartments-condos-2-bedroom-Two-Bedroom-Basement-Apartment-for-Rent-From-25th-December-2012-W0QQAdIdZ370675323

#41 [email protected] on 06.17.12 at 7:42 pm

A few more photos, looks all legit

http://tinyurl.com/7uy37ux
http://tinyurl.com/8yk2dke
http://tinyurl.com/6vk5ho7

#42 daystar on 06.17.12 at 7:43 pm

Hi Jake.

Your plan has been to buy another place and then and only then, sell the condo this whole time hasn’t it? You know you are worried about condo depreciation but you won’t do it until you “own” another place to move into. Right? How do you define “stable”, Jake.

Some facts for you. CMHC hits its $ 600 billion dollar ceiling in roughly 3 quarters, its at $567 billion now. Later this year, OSFI lowers 85% CMHC backed HELOC’s to 65%. So unless F decides to continue to juice RE with longer amortizations or raise the CMHC limit, (at this point its unlikely but in desperation who knows, maybe the Harper party thinks pre 08′ Spanish housing policy is wise. They sure thought that with U.S. pre 08′ housing policy er, ah, yeah) credit is sure to tighten in the first quarter of next year and does tighter credit conditions affect RE values that are driven by credit? Such a rhetorical question.

As Garth accurately states, you have $105 G’s of non realized equity in your condo leaving you $225 G’s in liquidity. If you sell the condo too late, you could face negative equity eating into your $225. I’m not saying you will, I’m saying you could and the trigger from what I can tell is tighter credit from banks shedding risk in Q1… Q2 of next year that CMHC will no longer take on.

Tighter credit conditions will always impact RE as valuations are credit driven. Mortgage approvals normally rubberstamped regardless of extreme leverage face mortgage application disapproval evaporating a good chunk of credit driven buyers with CMHC lending removed from the equation but even if I’m wrong, a peaking unsubstainable valuation correction outside of credit conditions could do it and if combined like I think they will be by Q1 of 2012, one of two things should happen beginning early next year. No more bidding wars and a tumble in valuations for RE nationwide including T.O. (especially condos) regardless of low rates and flat unemployment and that includes area’s people think credit doesn’t effect but will.

So go with #4. Dump your condo before years end (too bad your condo didn’t provide enough space, I would have considered selling it with conditions to rent with a 2 year lease whereby its cheaper to rent than own and buys you a couple years) and rent til’ prices come down, say 2 years from now and the longer you wait…

Unfortunately, I don’t think you truly want this. If you did, you would be looking to wisely rent. You’ve already been a part of bidding wars and will likely check the mls nightly which makes me fear you’ll have a hard time sitting on your liquidity after you’ve cashed out. In fact, you’ve been wanting to buy another place and then sell the condo so you can avoid renting altogether. (how do you define stable?) even if you do rent, with the first sign of RE market weakness you’ll buy in and regret it as it turns out to be just the beginning of a correction so…

I’ll say it again. Redefine the word “stable”. Rent a good spot with a longer lease that’s cheaper to rent than own (shouldn’t be hard to do), take the liquidity and invest as Garth suggests and chill! All those bidding wars have punch drunked you into believing that owning a house will bring stability from what! The end of competing in bidding wars? Be realistic. The energy you spent in bidding wars would have landed a good spot to rent by now so rent and in a couple years the digits will make way more sense to buy in. You know I’m right and already its beginning to feel light in your stomach (a really good thing). It might surprise you whats available…

Best of luck Jake.

#43 eaglebay - Parksville on 06.17.12 at 7:50 pm

#238 John on 06.17.12 at 11:25 am

In any deal there are winners and losers. There are always two sides to any story.
The posters here, most of them, only see the negative of the international situation or the state of our finances. Not the positive that change might bring.
The media does speculate that Greece will default for example but not that Greece might tackle their problems.
The doomers get their information from the media. So they think that one writer has all the answers.
Read between the lines of my posts and don’t put words in my mouth.
That’s all I can write at the moment, running out of time.

#44 TNT on 06.17.12 at 7:51 pm

You can probably knock a bit off the rent by mowing the lawn. An intresting comment in a popular N&West Vancouver RE listings paper by Realtor Alan Skinner today. Head Line- Like the bus, eventually the cycle arrives-” it seems price reductions are sought” sellers regretting not putting their properties on the market three months ago” ” We (Listings) in the North Shore are priced a little higher then the market(the buyer) is comfortable with. But its all good…buy low sell high….I mean buy high and sell low, time to re do the business cards.

#45 Market Bull on 06.17.12 at 7:54 pm

Well Jake it’s time to hold your nose and buy that SFH for you and your family.

A quick calculation of your TDS ratio based on your income and a $600,000 mortgage with a 25 year amortization at 3.8%, puts you at about 25%, which is well below the standard TDS limit of 32%. If you take a 30-year amortization, there is even a bigger cushion.

Lock yourself in to that 10-year mortgage (make sure it’s portable and assumable), and you will never look back.

His family will have no savings, no cushion, no investments, no education funds, less cash flow and higher expenses. You are unethical. — Garth

#46 Gunboat Denier on 06.17.12 at 8:05 pm

Upper two floors. — Garth

Land size is 22 feet wide. That would be one side.

And two floors of it. Have you never lived in a semi? — Garth

#47 Daisy Mae on 06.17.12 at 8:15 pm

#6 UGH: “….pretending you called it all along…”

*********************

Garth DID “call it all along”. He’s been right, all the way. It’s been an amazing journey to where we are today.

#48 ANONYMOUS on 06.17.12 at 8:17 pm

I hear that there is now a bidding war going on for that shed, and the rent is now up to $3,500 per month !!

WOW !

Only in Toronto you say?

My advice: if you are living in Toronto, working at Home Depot and making $12/hr, then go ahead and buy that $3 Million dollar house, live like a king, and then when you cannot make the payments, open up a cold one and have a good laugh !

#49 Sebee on 06.17.12 at 8:20 pm

Seriously, guy earns 180k and can’t afford a house and this is normal? Prices will hold steady in this noisy polluted wanna be city? I guess we are different. At least some neighborhoods are.

Side note – went to AGO finally, never been since I preferred the European museums and galleries. AGO looks like a private collection boutique gallery compared to Europe. This is the premiere gallery in a city that wants to be compared to London, Paris, NY? That’s really funny if I may say so.

#50 Mr Buyer on 06.17.12 at 8:21 pm

Even TO, yes TO the mighty will collapse under the weight of this bubble. There is not enough demand even in the face of free money. TO is not different and will succumb as all subjects of bubbles do. This is not going out on a limb, it is based upon pass characteristics of bubbles. Tokyo, a city with surrounding suburbia that has a population greater than all of Canada, could not present enough demand to support bubble prices so it stands to reason that TO does not have a prayer of doing so. 15% will be a bear trap in TO proper as it will in the rest of Canada.

#51 Mr Buyer on 06.17.12 at 8:24 pm

#48 ANONYMOUS on 06.17.12 at 8:17 pm
I hear that there is now a bidding war going on for that shed, and the rent is now up to $3,500 per month !!

WOW !

Only in Toronto you say?

My advice: if you are living in Toronto, working at Home Depot and making $12/hr, then go ahead and buy that $3 Million dollar house, live like a king, and then when you cannot make the payments, open up a cold one and have a good laugh !
………………………………………………….
As much as I hate to admit it, your comment likely describes present prevailing sentiment quite well.

#52 Ronaldo on 06.17.12 at 8:28 pm

#5 Steven –

”What is next , portable buildings that are no bigger than portable toilets being promoted as affordable cottages? If they are fitted with pontoons you can have an affordable house boat. It is utter diabolical madness!”

Steven, here’s one for you, 144 s.f., even equiped with wheels. Madness indeed.

http://tinyhouselistings.com/tiny-mountainside-retreat/

#53 Daisy Mae on 06.17.12 at 8:30 pm

“In parts of it. All markets are local. — Garth’

****************************

Right. Local. In West Kelowna, our gated community sales are stagnant. Listings fall off the board as they expire. We have experienced no spikes in prices, no bidding wars. A very slow ‘melt’. How far it plunges remains to be seen….

#54 Mr Buyer on 06.17.12 at 8:39 pm

#45 Market Bull on 06.17.12 at 7:54 pm

Lock yourself in to that 10-year mortgage (make sure it’s portable and assumable), and you will never look back.
………………………………………………………………….
When Market BULL is alone with his/her victim (did I say that out loud? I meant client) he likely more than simply infers that in ten years we will be back to and will have surpassed these bubble prices. The TRUTH of the matter is that there is little or no chance of attaining these prices again in the serviceable life time of any houses presently constructed or being constructed. Some body mentioned a quote that went something like it is next to impossible to make somebody understand something if his very livelihood depends upon his not coming to understand it. I will give Market BULL the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is the victim of just such a phenomenon and not an outright confidence man fleecing lesser humans. TEDIUM is a word that comes to mind (PSY-OPS 101). There is no ten year riding the dip out. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. EVEN IN TO (can’t flip it and can’t afford it).

#55 NYCer on 06.17.12 at 8:44 pm

So if I live at Yonge/Sheppard, does that mean those crappy bungalows going for $1M wont be worth $500k anytime?

That’s sucks.

#56 Frank on 06.17.12 at 8:48 pm

Toronto is the Manhattan of Canada. What does Vancouver have?

#57 tkid on 06.17.12 at 8:50 pm

He’s in a bit of a rock and a hard place.

#25, he’d only be in a bit of a rock and hard place if he lived in the garden shed.

Jake has $325,000 to put down on a house. In my old area, Bowmanville, he could put all that on a house, have absolutely NO MORTGAGE (ie. the wife would not have to work so she could stay home and raise the children), possibly get the basement renovated so the old folks could move in and be looked after (but there are senior apartments in the area if the parents wanted their own digs).

The area is ideal for children, has schools, shops, transit system, will see a GO Train station in the next decade, has a hospital, snow removal in the winter, etc.

Both yourself and Jake need to think about getting everyone out of the big bad city. And don’t bleat about the commute. I currently commute to Etobicoke-ish and it takes as long getting home now as it did getting to B-ville.

#58 NAM not HAM on 06.17.12 at 8:53 pm

Garth,

So that 1.2 mil home that chinese student bought is going to keep its value?

We sure do have a problem. That’s a POS.

#59 Vangrrl on 06.17.12 at 8:59 pm

I couldn’t even finish reading this one it stressed me out so much.
How do people live like that?

#60 X on 06.17.12 at 9:02 pm

‘Real estate prices march higher until they reach a point where the average family can no longer buy the average house – at least not without assuming unrepayable debt….’ Garth

I think it already has, people just haven’t come to realize it yet.

#61 Sebee on 06.17.12 at 9:06 pm

Hey Toronto,

NY, London, Paris are out of your league. You want to compare yourself to some other city, try Chicago. Any objections? Hey, what’s up with RE in Chicago? Give it few years, Toronto will be same.

#62 Mr Buyer on 06.17.12 at 9:10 pm

There are very few instances in human interaction in which personal attack upon somebody holding an opposing view nets an entirely positive result. One such case is when one is responding to a personal attack but the response must not reveal one as having an undesirable character (PSY-OPS 101).

#63 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 06.17.12 at 9:16 pm

I like to pull my gun. It’s a problem I’ve had since adolescence.

And yes, even a pea shooter can take an eye out.

#64 Canadian Watchdog on 06.17.12 at 9:24 pm

#45 Market Bull

You’re a well trained muppet like the rest who gives conniving advice to hose borrowers for a commission.

TDS ratio. Pffftt.

#65 Toronto_CA on 06.17.12 at 9:25 pm

I’m trying to discern what Garth is saying here about prices of SFH in Toronto neighbourhoods that are in demand. I really can’t believe that they won’t come down if a crash starts, especially if when we hit the next recession. If Garth, you think otherwise, I’d like to know what you base that on? Please refer to say, Chicago, or Atlanta, or Miami, or Phoenix or a simiar city to Toronto size and see if prices of SFH in desireable hoods didn’t come down from their 2006 peak.

I don’t think if the condos crash hard (which just about EVERYONE is predicting will happen) that houses will come out unscathed, especially since they seem to be running up so much. A recession will hit them and an interest rate hike will hit them. The fundamentals (income, rent) just don’t support their prices or the price run up.

I’m kind of baffled, other than I don’t think you want to advise this one person writing you against buying a $900k home based on it dropping in the near term to $700k.

Toronto is NOT worth the kind of prices that the houses are demanding, $1m for a 2bedroom 1 bath bungalow? Are you kidding me? Desirable area or not. And yes, once the bubble pops and construction and other FIRE jobs disappear and tons of people become unemployed and dozens of new condo towers fall into disrepair or are half built, that won’t cause nearby homes to fall in value?

This letter writer should sell and lock in his condo capital gain and either find something affordable (mortgage = 3.5 times earnings, at least 20% down) that he can live in long term of 10 years+, or rent until this all plays out.

#66 Mr Buyer on 06.17.12 at 9:27 pm

Being underestimated by one’s potential predators is an imperative. This often allows for irredeemable mistakes to be made by said predators which in turn frequently leads to more lasting attenuation of the threat posed by that particular predator. While this is not advisable for nations as a whole it is a prerequisite for individuals that prey upon predators (PSY-OPS 101). But how am I supposed to know.

#67 Toon Town Boomer on 06.17.12 at 9:28 pm

227 sg ft for $1000 a month! That’s SICK!!! Right now, I feel sad for the person that only has this as an option. I also, feel very sad for mankind and what we have become and where we are headed.

#68 somecatchphrase on 06.17.12 at 9:29 pm

Browsing Kijiji a few weeks ago, I saw an RV for rent, parked in the landlord’s driveway, for $1000/month. Red Deer, AB

#69 TEMPLE on 06.17.12 at 9:45 pm

What about location? Will demand areas in Toronto plunge?

I’ve answered that already. It’s no. Although listings in the GTA have taken a big jump, sheer population demands in 416 will keep values flat, while they wobble and fade in 905.

Come on, Garth, that is the same kind of mystical voodoo that Vancouverites use to talk up their city. As you have said before, housing prices are really about debt, multiples of income and emotion. Toronto, even the in-demand areas, is not immune to the pending deflation in real estate values.

I’ve lived in Toronto, Victoria, Ottawa and a couple of small towns in BC- all of which had their magic formula for why they were different. And as far as any of them go, I don’t believe it. Toronto is not immune: when a family making vastly more than the average income can’t afford to live in a reasonable (but not ostentatious) part of town, the fat lady is about to sing.

TEMPLE

Toronto is not immune or different, but in small and defined areas where houses have sold in a week for decades, demand consistently outstrips supply. This is not true of the wider urban area. With 6,054,191 people, the GTA is larger than eight provinces. As I said, all markets are local and within this area there are many. Your generalization is of no value. — Garth

#70 bsallergy on 06.17.12 at 9:54 pm

Funny one big G, I got back to the peg a week ago from the big smoke and two things struck me about what used to be a kind of happening city, TO is pegifying and dampcouverizing at the same time.

The pegification has to do with not wanting to pay taxes, downtown streets are as or more busted than any in Winnipeg. The overreach was also obvious from my hotel window, I guess this was the attempt to mimic times square a six story poster of madonna kissing herself in a mirror, some CTV new series billboard crap, and jumbotron on the hardcock cafe.

The dampcouverization is the number of hugely ugly glass condo towers going up on every empty lot in the city. With that kind of craptastic shit the city will end up being more of a provincial backwater like dampcouver.

#71 I wish you were a beer on 06.17.12 at 10:00 pm

@9 Marvelous Mississausage:

……..Homes like mine in swanky areas of Etobicoke a mere 5-10 drive away along the QEW will run you $500k more…….

At what time of day is it a mere 5 to 10 minute drive.

I can remember it often taking 10 minutes to get from Hurontario to Dixie……….

Whatever. If you don’t need to be in the swanky area in Etobicoke, I will agree that you’re better off in half price digs in the ‘Sauga.

#72 Babblemaster on 06.17.12 at 10:02 pm

So, it now seems that Toronto house prices will probably remain stable! Why, because of sheer population demands. Actually, a much more significant factor, is the likely scenario that interest rates will remain low for a long, long time. Garth has to admit that his predictions of rates rising was wrong (a couple of quater points don’t count).

Of course rates will rise. But in the example cited, demand – not the cost of money – is the salient point. — Garth

#73 Apocalypse 2010 on 06.17.12 at 10:03 pm

Talked to an oldtimer who’s been on Bay Street for 40 years. Said till a few months ago when asked if the market was bad, he would have said that he remembered when things were worse but now his view has changed. He said this is the worst he has ever seen (including the 70’s and the crash of 87 and the Dotcom crash), and he expects it is going to get worse, much worse! I must say that I have never seen him this despondent, not even in 2008 when the TSX dropped 800 pts. in a day. So the present illusion of a recovery will prove to be a mirage just like the illusion of prosperity fueled by excessive debt over the past 30 years is now proving to be a mirage. The endgame is in sight and it won’t be pretty. Houses in Rosedale, High Park, Kingsway, Leaside and in all of the GTA will eventually decline nearly the same percentage and condos will be massacred. I remember ’91 when a condo in Harbor square previously valued at 300K could not be given away at 139K. Those days will return with a vengeance, far worse than in ’91…

We hadn’t heard from you in a while, thankfully. The Bay Street malaise is over trading volumes, M&A and new issues, not valuations. But nice try. — Garth

#74 Editor on 06.17.12 at 10:08 pm

In the N3 area north of Toronto (including Richmond Hill, Markham and Vaughan), one house that’s been sitting for weeks finally lowered its price. Not by much, but it’s a gesture. We’ve also seen several houses have Open Houses 2-3 weekends in a row. Directional signs from realtors abound. There seem to enough equivalent houses in some areas to give buyers a genuine choice, albeit at high prices. Surely this will reduce the bidding wars.

#75 zeeman on 06.17.12 at 10:10 pm

Garth,

Am i reading this correctly…are you saying to buy a home in toronto for 900k, if you need to, as long as you have other investments, since toronto home prices are not coming down……this sounds very different to what you have been saying for years…

how about interest rate hike,income, debt level,new lending rules,…are these now out the window

The reference was to demand areas. Demand, when it surpasses supply, holds prices. Toronto, at 6 million people, is a weave of markets. Why do I have to keep repeating the obvious? — Garth

#76 Uklurker on 06.17.12 at 10:11 pm

Move to Barrie..no mortgage, great environment and forget your family ever existed…their bad for living somewhere so expensive.

#77 Don't read his post on 06.17.12 at 10:13 pm

Is Souffville an area that will retain it’s value? Maybe it’s it’s one of the few areas in the 905 that’ll hold up? Maybe I shouldn’t sell? maybe there is no bubble?

Joke, right? — Garth

#78 daystar on 06.17.12 at 10:18 pm

#35 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.17.12 at 7:30 pm

Mulcair? Doh!!

#79 Island renters on 06.17.12 at 10:24 pm

Garth, your post highlights a very real problem many of us face. Affordable rental housing is hard to come by in many cities in Canada. As much as living in a cramped condo sucks, it has to be better than living in a shed with 2 small kids. The majority of your posts have featured doctors or high income earners selling to rent for $2500+ per month. We live in Victoria and I definitely don’t want to buy, but the rental market is so tight that I don’t know how much longer we can hold off. We’ve seen several properties go from mls to Craigslist rentals when they can’t sell, but people then attempt to charge the equivalent of their monthly mortgage payment. Will things get better in the rental world as the bubble gets softer? Thanks so much for your blog by the way, it’s been so informative.

#80 Boombust on 06.17.12 at 10:27 pm

“Although listings in the GTA have taken a big jump, sheer population demands in 416 will keep values flat…”

That’s nice.

#81 Blacksheep on 06.17.12 at 10:29 pm

Daystar,

“Accept the loss of your efforts (but by no means stop trying). Accept it because the loss that follows, whether its the loss of freedom, or freedom of expression or human rights, or market share of resources or simple taxpayers dollars is the loss that we, as a democracy at the very least collectively signed up to share.”

Very accurate description of our situation. Unfortunately, that’s far to many losses to ACCEPT In exchange for an irrelevant democratic vote, for it matters not, which way said vote goes. A Left or Right victory is of no consequence, the country still follows a path laid out, by parties above both, yet not in the best interest of the masses.

Like I said, you’re promoting systemic complacency. You got your X, now just accept your sich. I know my bitching cannot change things, but at least I type the truth and thats good enough for me.

Timing is Everything,

“I haven’t voted in 20 some years. Am I part of the problem or the solution?”

Just a realist.

take care,
Blacksheep

#82 TEMPLE on 06.17.12 at 10:34 pm

Toronto is not immune or different, but in small and defined areas where houses have sold in a week for decades, demand consistently outstrips supply. This is not true of the wider urban area. With 6,054,191 people, the GTA is larger than eight provinces. As I said, all markets are local and within this area there are many. Your generalization is of no value. — Garth

Fair enough, and I appreciate your point, but I still think you are wrong. I’m aware we are dangerously close to the realm of opinion vs. fact on this, but I still wouldn’t buy one of these defined areas.

TEMPLE

#83 Einzatgruppen kanada on 06.17.12 at 10:35 pm

Why pre-buy the condo then have a couple of kids? Whose parents do you have to look after? Aren’t there other family members who can help? Is not both of you working with two young kids enough to deal with?

Why buy and feed the bank and release somebody else’s equity?

#84 Chugsie on 06.17.12 at 10:40 pm

I recently started renting a new condo in Markham (warden/hwy 7). I get a ton of junk mail every day and 90% of it is real estate related. It goes straight in the garbage but it’s a real chore sifting through all the junk mail for anything important. Markham will be ground zero when the bubble pops.

#85 Market Bull on 06.17.12 at 10:40 pm

Jake, don’t listen to the perpetual naysayers on this site. They come here for their dose of pitiful solace and as we all know, misery loves company.

Let’s not forget that they’ve been dead wrong about the GTA real estate market for the last five years and will likely be wrong for the next five.

#86 Chiquita Banana on 06.17.12 at 10:41 pm

Dear Jake: I totally disagree with Garth on moving to the burbs or near-burbs to get more for your money. Demand neighbourhoods are in demand for a reason – they have what urban fold want – transit, culture, community and amenities. All the burbs have is parking. Renting in these same neighbourhoods also comes at a premium, and there are bidding wars there too….I know, because we’ve lost out on a couple of those.

The only thing you can hope for in High Park is that prices of SFH will flatline and the bidding wars will lessen. But do you really need a detached house? I mean, seriously, you currently live in a condo, and you think you need to upsize that much! Why not manage your expectations a little and look for a lovely little row house or semi in your same neighbourhood? Or even a bungalow with room for future expansion? 2 bedroom bungalows are littered around Swansea, and nobody but contractors seem to want them. Then they add a storey and sell them for $1.1M!

#87 sotiri on 06.17.12 at 10:43 pm

“What about location? Will demand areas in Toronto plunge?

I’ve answered that already. It’s no. Although listings in the GTA have taken a big jump, sheer population demands in 416 will keep values flat, ”
————————————————————–
What???? Are you serious Garth? After so many years of giving us all the reasons for a market correction, especially in Vancouver and Toronto, after telling us prices will go down 15% on average etc etc, now you tell us that “population demands in 416 will keep values flat, “? How they will stay “flat” when you told us they have been doubled in the last 10 years? How come your reasoning somehow changed so drastically for the 416.
What happened to your “smart” “scientific ” reasoning about real estate trouble in Canada particularly Toronto and Vancouver?
I cant believe I am coming to the conclusion that you are not serious or that you are a joke.

416 is less than 40 per cent of the GTA. Yes, flat in demand areas. The rest will fare poorly. I said this here a year ago, and see no reason to alter the view. — Garth

#88 mac on 06.17.12 at 10:46 pm

Uhhhh, Garth? What is causing the Vancouverization of Toronto? Is it not HAM?

On what evidence? — Garth

#89 Canadian Watchdog on 06.17.12 at 10:48 pm

“What about location? Will demand areas in Toronto plunge?”

Look what happened in 2008. Toronto’s detached homes was hit the hardest and lost 5 years value (average price) in 5 months. http://postimage.org/image/p4ik33a03/

Demand is irrelevant when speculation drives prices, because as I’ve argued many times, banks control demand, not the free market. There is enough leveraged assets between Vancouver’s detached and Toronto’s condo market to threaten banks’ and CMHC’s balance sheet.

As prices fall, this will force lenders to lend less as no bank or non-bank institution wants declining assets on their balance sheets; in turn by this response, it will contribute to falling sales creating a negative feedback loop that is very difficult to recover from.

Once listings and price changes rise, banks go into defense mode.

Your chart is for the GTA. The comment I made was for demand areas. This is like blending Buffalo stats into those of New York. — Garth

#90 MC on 06.17.12 at 10:48 pm

With tnght’s election result, I see no QE3. In fact I think all the bears are paranoid and markets will swell this fall. Especially after initially realising no stimulus was necessary and all that was needed to rally was low prices and solid corporate bal. sheets.Gold bugs will grow angry when they are hiding in their basement holding their gold that has dropped to $1300, after realizing JP morgan’s and Goldman Sachs layed a bull trap in the gold market for them.

But what do I know…maybe I’m the paranoid nutcase!

Markets are cheap. Please review what I posted here Friday night. — Garth

#91 Gypsy Kid on 06.17.12 at 10:52 pm

jake, stay put for another couple of years…raising kids are expensive and stressful. dont add money worries to that. enjoy the park.

#92 george on 06.17.12 at 10:52 pm

“We have long maintained that a debt bubble followed by a credit crisis leads to a deflationary recession or depression and a major secular bear market. Nevertheless, a lot of smart analysts who agree with us on the existence of a secular bear market argue that actions taken by the monetary and fiscal authorities lead to severe inflation rather than deflation. While their case is logical and well-reasoned, we disagree as we will explain in this report. We emphasize, however, that, in either case, the result is a major lengthy bear market.”

Deflation is a much more likely outcome than major inflation

http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1654&menugroup=Home

#93 sluggo on 06.17.12 at 11:00 pm

Meanwhile, the OSC’s website is down due to the overwhelming response to all the naked short selling going on Friday after the bell on their self regulated markets.

#94 50% correction predictor on 06.17.12 at 11:07 pm

Ladies and gentlemen,

Garth – the staunchest RE bear just has capitulated! This is the purest and the most salient sign that the RE in Canada has reached its EPIC PEAK!

Kaboom is the next!!! (events will come and unfold to make this happen)

50% correction everywhere and anywhere in Canada is guaranteed!

The reason is simple: comparing to Americans, Canadians produce nothing except digging some stuff from underground. This credit-induced artifical wealth will disappear sooner than you think!

Protect yourself!

Actually this repeats my position of a year ago. But I know this is a lot for you to recall. — Garth

#95 condopoor on 06.17.12 at 11:07 pm

Garth,

I love that you take the time to discuss your posts, even when people don’t deserve a response. Good on you, man.

#96 meslippery on 06.17.12 at 11:10 pm

#18 Jess
When you buy a car for $30 000.00 you pay the tax.
So if you sell it 5 years later for $15,000.00
The tax has been paid. Why dose the 2nd buyer have
to pay again?
Oh no good reason just gov. greed.

#97 50% correction predictor on 06.17.12 at 11:11 pm

One more thing:

The only regretable is no convenient instrument available for us bears to short the sh*t out of this epic bubble.

#98 Jake on 06.17.12 at 11:12 pm

Garth, thanks for using my letter, your thoughts are very much appreciated. How much better do things look for me (or not) with a $700-750K semi in the same demand neighbourhood, also considering that we have some retirement savings in OMERS pensions as well? Sounds like you feel the equity will be fairly safe in an area where demand reigns. Suburbia is not an option for us, so must buy or rent local … anyone know where the “next High Park” is? (on subway line please…)

#99 sotiri on 06.17.12 at 11:13 pm

Garth on your Jun 5th posting you wrote :
“Soon, what’s happening in Vancouver will manifest in Toronto,” . Garth in case you don’t know Toronto’s area code is 416.

on your Jun 12 you wrote “The TD Bank made headlines with a report forecasting a modest 15% decline in Vancouver and Toronto over the next two or three years, while taking pains to say there will be no US-style crash. The myth of Canadian safeness is perpetrated at every official turn.”

Today you wrote “population demands in 416 will keep values flat, ”
I feel dizzy.

See the prior comments. The 6-million-person GTA is not one market. What inanity. — Garth

#100 DondWest on 06.17.12 at 11:16 pm

Why would low income people rent a shed for a thousand a month when for that same thousand they could probably buy a used trailer?

#101 Shane on 06.17.12 at 11:22 pm

#74 re Richmond hill, Markham etc… I’m seeing the same thing, except the 400K town homes that still keep selling at over the asking price. Take one guess who’s buying them up…

#102 Canadian Watchdog on 06.17.12 at 11:24 pm

#90 MC

You must be reading the media headlines because as of a few hours ago, the Pasok party stated that it will not form a coalition government with the ND party unless Syriza agrees to join, which is pretty much equivalent to Harper trying to form a majority with Mulcair.

Good luck with that one.

#103 Toronto Bear on 06.17.12 at 11:34 pm

Do not sell the condo. This coming from a huge bear. High Park is an amazing neighborhood. Prices across from that park, with the shopping, neighborhood, everything being walkable, and the subway right there….they are not going down anytime soon. Unlike Vancouver, Toronto has an actual economy.

I grew up with two siblings, we never had a place bigger than 1500 sqft even when we were rambunctious teenagers. A wife and two small kids, you can easily make-do. If you need more storage pay $100 a month for a storage locker.

Stay in the condo. Calculate the difference in payments you would be making on a $900k house, and put that money towards your investment/nest egg.

#104 45north on 06.17.12 at 11:35 pm

House Horny Housewife: JAKE, DON’T BE A FOOL, keep the damned condo.

yeah that’s what I’m thinking. Jake here’s the picture, the housing bubble results in a massive misallocation of resources – you cannot not buy the housing you need. Faced with this situation you and your wife decide to make the best of things where you are. 1000 ft² = 92.9 m² Let’s ask Mr. Buyer how does 92.9 m² for a family of four sound in Tokyo? I’m thinking it sounds pretty good.

Prices will drop, but not uniformly. Centre areas of Toronto will maintain their value while the outer areas drop. This is the argument I had with Tony. (we used to play soccer at Birchmount Stadium in Scarborough) Tony said that real estate in Brampton would maintain its value while prices in central TO would drop – as if saying so would make it so.

#105 Toronto Bear on 06.17.12 at 11:36 pm

agreed with post 97….wish there was a flat-out way to short vancouver real estate. mind you, i have been saying that for about 5 years now! lol!

#106 45north on 06.17.12 at 11:37 pm

1000 sq feet = 92.9 sq m

#107 Bought in Toronto on 06.17.12 at 11:44 pm

The population of Toronto is not swelling.

People regularly cite that the population of the City of Toronto is growing 100,000 per year. The fact is that the population is growing by less than approximately 20% of the above false incorrect figure.

Between 2006 and 2011, the population of the City of Toronto grew by 111,779 residents. That is an average increase of approx. 22,336 people into the city per year. More condos are built in the city than people moving into the city. We will have a glut of condos in Toronto shortly with no one to live in them.

http://www.toronto.ca/demographics/pdf/2011-census-backgrounder.pdf

#108 TheRealTruth (TRT) on 06.17.12 at 11:45 pm

Junius????

The truth will get out!! Being associated with a law firm who does immigration work will no longer help! You guys can delete and edit all the comments you wish but it will get out.

This blog has finally mentioned that SHEER POPULATION DEMAND will keep prices flat in the 416! Now, if you have a brain, you can equate this to mean that there will also be sheer population demand in Vancouver. Unless all immigrants (both perm and temp) just go to Tornto…yeah sure…whatever.

550,000 per year.

#109 ALE on 06.17.12 at 11:52 pm

Toronto is not immune or different, but in small and defined areas where houses have sold in a week for decades, demand consistently outstrips supply. This is not true of the wider urban area. With 6,054,191 people, the GTA is larger than eight provinces. As I said, all markets are local and within this area there are many. Your generalization is of no value. — Garth

When the most ardent holdouts fold you know the bubble is close to popping. Can’t believe I’m telling you this Garth, It’s not different in Toronto.

Did this blog get hijacked by the Condo King?

All markets are local. But believe what you wish. Nothing changes. — Garth

#110 Canadian Watchdog on 06.17.12 at 11:57 pm

#105 Toronto Bear #97 50% correction predictor

If you’re not in options or futures trading, just go inverse…

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=22737&qm_symbol=HIF
http://jovian.transmissionmedia.ca/fundprofile_betapro.aspx?f=HIF&lang=en

with some assurance…

Earnings, GDP: Get ready to be disappointed http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/earnings-gdp-get-ready-to-be-disappointed/article4299632/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

#111 Frank on 06.18.12 at 12:05 am

Man some people on this blog just do not get it. Canada is different and thank God for that. Yes RE will drop and is dropping in some areas, but in downtown T.O. they have always gone up or during rough times have stayed flat.

#112 Victoria on 06.18.12 at 12:07 am

2 friends just sold their homes in Leaside. Things have become so crazy there they wanted to get out of RE and rent. Opppps!

#113 TheRealTruth (TRT) on 06.18.12 at 12:09 am

The future of education in Canada as 550,000 per year continue to come in.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Struggling+students+buying+passing+grades+independent+schools+warns/6797287/story.html

#114 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.18.12 at 12:13 am


Hanging On This is what #217 Taipan and #218 BC Bring Cash’s posts cover, and Brits. hanging on; Obomba Hey big spender; Bank Holidays in France? 2:08 clip Man bulldozes own home to stop banxters from profiting off it; Fast Track Iceland’s economy surging. There must be something positive about jailing crooked banxters; Squatters in London Taking over due to economic situations? Japan + Oil = Iran; Owning vs. Renting Two sides to every story; SArabia – Germany Should keep Germany afloat for a few months; Four Reasons China headed into meltdown; Deficits (Yawn) Wot’s a deficit between friends? Faking It Not orgasms, German strength which goes with Phony Growth and Austerity.

The Wealthy Barber returns; Cash 4 Gold Stores Except they don’t have any cash, they pay by cheques and a lot of them are bouncing, and Cyprus Bank (alleges) money gone; Portugal’s anti-austerity campaign; Debt Begone; Economists US slowdown confirmed; FTonAV; 7:47 clip And you thought your job was tough? Spain’s Housing Bust and the effects on other things.
*
France Socialists (Hollande) wins house; 2:07 clip A typhoon headed Fukushima way; 6:13 clip Fukushima, and protest outside PM’s residence; Ottawa Airport Be careful what you say. We’ve become a dumbed-down society; Replacing Plastic? Doesn’t sound particularly appealing; Counterfeit Chips China’s are good; Cannibal Cloud The drug was originally an aphrodisiac; The Insects are Watching Not insects per se, just more govt. spying, UK brings in mass surveillance plus plus Japan surveillance; Obomba Hoodwinking a second term? 5:39 clip Earth is in the midst of a geo-magnetic storm.

#115 Adam on 06.18.12 at 12:13 am

My family (wife and toddler) are in the exact same situation as Jake…

We live in a 3 bedroom detached house in Sunnylea that we could easily get $700K+ if we sold. (Our mortgage is currently below $250K)

The type of property we would upgrade to is a 2-5 acre rural property with a McMansion on it. We are looking north of Oakville and Burlington – the price tags are around $950K – 1.2M.

Our Bank has us approved for a $850K mortgage and we will have conservatively have a down payment of $400K. Along with the capital gain from the sale of our home we could draw on another $200K from investments (without touching RRSP or TFSA accounts).

I am pretty sure we are going to go for it in 1 or 2 years if we are blessed with another child.

Great article Garth…you have touched on a topic that is relevant for the 30-40 year old crowd that are considering moving up the property ladder …

#116 Tony on 06.18.12 at 12:46 am

Don’t kid yourself high demand areas will fall the same proportionally in price as the rest of Toronto. Toronto house prices should fall around 40 percent in price while condo prices should fall around 60 to 65 percent. Toronto being one of the few areas where the greater fool still abounds gives the seller of the condo another option. Sell the condo and stay on as a renter.

#117 Tony on 06.18.12 at 12:50 am

Re: #104 45north on 06.17.12 at 11:35 pm

Brampton may well be the number one foreclosure capital city in of all of Canada in the near future surpassing both Vancouver and Victoria. In fact i would bet very heavily on it.

#118 Tony on 06.18.12 at 12:57 am

Re: #103 Toronto Bear on 06.17.12 at 11:34 pm

The line should read Unlike Vancouver, Toronto has air pollution.

#119 syd on 06.18.12 at 1:02 am

another boring real life story with words of garth wisdom. now lets get back to the meat of the housing bubble.

#120 JIM from Calgary on 06.18.12 at 1:08 am

Not sure if this was mentioned , but ‘owner living in basement’ gives landlord, (owner) much more rights – under Ontario law. Renter beware!

#121 Ralph Cramdown on 06.18.12 at 1:19 am

The only regretable is no convenient instrument available for us bears to short the sh*t out of this epic bubble.

MIC, HCG, others.
You can bet on the Teranet indices if you’re accredited, I hear.

#122 Tony on 06.18.12 at 1:22 am

Re: #92 george on 06.17.12 at 10:52 pm

The United States at some point in time will have to raise taxes at a time when workers are seeing no wage gains. This will also be extremely deflationary.

#123 B P O E $$ on 06.18.12 at 1:27 am

What does Vancouver have? Free supply of sunscreen 300 days per year! Mr BPOE$$ Van city is down 12 % in only a few months this is just the beginning, realtors and mortgage brokers will be riding Dicky Dee ice cream bikes next summer to pay for their new Kia lease payments as the BMW & Mercs have been repo

Sincerely Scared IN $BPOE$

#124 BCObserver on 06.18.12 at 1:44 am

900K for 3Bdr house? That does not sound real to me. For that money you can get a decent 4-5Bdr house in North Van. Is Toronto that higher priced than Vancouver? I thought it is the other way around.

#125 BigAl (Original) on 06.18.12 at 1:44 am

I’m shocked at the ideologues of the right wing/banker-speak about the Greek election. I just heard one on the radio talking about how Greeks made the right decision in electing the party who will keep kicking the can down the road. But then went on to say they will eventually have to default in the end and leave the Euro currency anyway and they’re just delaying the inevitable, and that will make things worse.
Uhhh…then wouldn’t the best choice have been the left?

#126 Boomer on 06.18.12 at 2:13 am

#56 What does Vancouver have?

Warmer winter. Cooler summer. Fresher air.

#127 Canadian in Cali on 06.18.12 at 2:18 am

I went home to visit the folks back in Vancouver over the weekend. The whole place feels like San Fran six years ago. I’m embarrassed to say I’m Canadian. All the attitudes I kept hearing were negatively directed at Americans. I’m still Canadian, but I have to say I have never met a larger bunch of high and mighty, poorly informed, willfully ignorant, and delusional people than what I see in Canada today. Canada has changed in ways i cringe to acknowledge. Watching my country participate in what I view to be much worse behavior than what happened in the US is totally shameful and we have become a laughing stock in the financial industries arena in the US. American banks made some massive mistakes, but nothing and i mean nothing like the mistakes Canadian banks have made. Far more Canadians will be eating crow a few years from now than what even i believe you think, Garth. All my friends and family do is sit around and poke blame and fun of the Americans, not even knowing they are in recovery. The reason they ar completely clueless is because they are all tuned into the CBC, the greatest manufactured government propaganda I know to date. I too once thiught i was so well educated. American media is much more tranparent and with the times than that garbage i had to watch at mom and dad’s over the weekend in Vancouver. Moving here to SF has opened my eyes to a new perspective. I believe now we have all been used for the gain of Harper’s regime light. As for me i am staying put here in California, despite the bad everyone may want to point out. For every negative in the US I honestly can point out three in Canada. Moving AWAY from there has ceratinly made me a better and smarter individual. No wonder Americans have little respect for us because we really do act like idiots! I used to get so angry at American “uppitiness,” but i see it now for what it is It isnt upitiness at all – this is our own inferiority complex. Americans just call it like they see it without apologies. We are too concerned with feelings and stroking egos all the time. Insert negative US statistics here, which is so typically Canadian, and so topically misinformed or use manipulated data. Heck we even repeated what they did but we had baseline knowledge of what NOT to do in the first place. If you think that’s being smart then you are even a greter fool to the world. We can believe our currency is on par with the USD all we want, but at the end of the day our currency even at “par” fetches us about 40% less buying power than what the American dollar gets. This whole currency game is a joke. the bottom line is wht a currency will have the power to purchase in its respective country. In these terms the US dollar is far stronger thn our play money. The Canadian dollar is screwed in the long term. Bottom line is quality of life is much better in the US than in Canada. It’s everyone’s pride and total ignorance that will keep you from seeing or admitting it. I won’t be going home again to Vancouver anytime soon. Next time I will fly the folks here. Vancouver world class? What a freaking joke! It is a dump of a downtown and the people and attitude are even worse. Vancouver is nice for Canada but to on a global scale. Live in SF for five years and then we can talk.

#128 Canuck Abroad on 06.18.12 at 2:22 am

There is no way Jake is going to take that advice. This is a generation that does not do compromise. He is going to buy the 900k house. But at least you tried.

What is so daunting about moving twice? People are so lazy. I find moving very cathartic. Everything gets packed up, reorganised, rediscovered. I have moved four times in the last 20 years, every single time moving a four bedroom house by myself (used removal men for the lifting obviously). Three of these moves I had small children in tow. Suck it up Jake. Just move. Twice.

#129 truth hammer on 06.18.12 at 2:34 am

I have enough space behind my hot water tank cubby in the garage to fit two ( maybe three) cots……comes with 40 watt light bulb on a fancy string and a floor drain for night peeing……… First 2 grand takes the spot……email fast cause this won’t last….referances a must….no pets…no kids…..preferance given to lawyers or tax auditors willing to wash my cars and mow the lawn.

On the topic of the two unfortunates who died in their beds on Koh Phi Phi in Thailand. There are many unexplained and unsolved murders/mysterious deaths of tourists ( farang) in Thailands resorts every year. The Thai police are expert at never getting to the bottom of any incident.

The Thai government does it’s best to quash any investigations……if you lived there as I often do…you’d find that over the years the obfuscation and denial of tourist crime is quite laughable and in itself criminal as part of a national conspiracy to cover up anything that might slow the tourism industry down from cash machine for the upper classes who are as corrupt as any you’ll find anywhere in the third world.

We will never find out the truth as it is in Thai police hands….but I can tell you that there has been many such deaths in hotels across Thailand where industrial chemicals have been used by hotels to control the huge bedbug and insect infestation of tourist rooms. Most recently in Chiang Mai six people were found dead over a two week period….guess what..unsolved …no arrests ( it was in a major hotel) business as usual.

When in Thailand be very careful…..check everything before you bed down….noxious smells could be deadly….open windows if possible…..keep in mind that hotel rooms are ‘dime a dozen’ and one should never hesitate to skeedaddle if there is any question that you have concerns.

RIP two more tourists whose deaths will remain unsolved and the cause of their deaths will be swept under the rug for the sake of some greedy police captain or senator who grinds the hotel owners for protection money ( gee and some of that will end up laundered in Canada what a surprise) .

Its sadly ironic that bed bugs are a north american problem stemming from our ban of pesticides that have cuased the explosive infestation of all our major cities hotels that has been shifted to Thailand and causing the death of two girls from Quebec. We do nothing about the bugs here…send them there…and people die. The Thai’s are freaked that anything should impede the cash flow so they kill the ‘foriegners bugs’ with deadly chemicals…….and foriegners die….now thats globalization.

#130 truth hammer on 06.18.12 at 2:35 am

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/06/17/quebec-sisters-may-have-died-from-accidental-poisoning-thai-police/

Thai death article…

#131 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.18.12 at 2:51 am

416 will never be “flat” once the market turns, since condos are factored into the average price.

SFHs in core 416 will be far stickier than condos, but will still be impacted — especially when interest rates rise.

The Top 1% ($230k per year) cannot afford basic detached houses — like that HAM special in Willowdale, or other North York dumps being bid up to $1M+ for land value only.

#132 Canuck Abroad on 06.18.12 at 3:04 am

Garth, why are you suggesting Jake moves all the way out to Mississauga when he said he needs subway access? That two-floors-of-a-semi you suggested may as well be in Siberia. Why anyone would not only choose to live there but actually lay out cash money for it is a mystery. Access to highways, really? People pay money for that?

I am baffled that you think now 416 is bulletproof. Even parts of it. This is clearly not the experience of 2008, when prices fell markedly in Rosedale, Forest Hill, and Lawrence Park. If you think Leaside will hold it’s value then I know you’re having a laugh. What is so different now to only a few years ago? Demand from where? Europeans? Persians? Middle East? Russians? Kindly explain.

#133 Aussie Roy on 06.18.12 at 3:27 am

Aussie Headlines

Sales in Australias HAM capital continues to slide

Victorian ‘growth area’ land sales slide by 42pc
The Urban Development Institute of Australia has warned investment and employment levels in
Victoria’s property industry could fall, in the face of a slump in Greenfield land sales.

The comments came after Charter Keck Cramer research revealed a 42 per cent drop in ‘growth
area’ land sales from developers to the public in the 12 months prior to the end of the March 2012
quarter.

http://www.charterkc.com.au/newsmedia/documents/Victorian%20%E2%80%98growth%20area%E2%80%99%20land%20sales%20slide%20by%2042pc%2029-5-2012.pdf

Interest rate cuts do nothing to stop falling housing market.

The recent 75 basis points of cuts to official interest rates since early – May appears to have done little to reinvigorate the auction market, which turned in a lacklustre performance over the weekend, particularly in Melbourne.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/06/auctions-clearance-rates-weak/

The Winds of Change for the Australian Economy

In an interconnected, globalised world, trouble in one place quickly spreads elsewhere. A slowdown in Europe (and the US) hurts China just as it tries to deal with a burst credit bubble. That in turn hurts the Australian economy. But it’s not just via trade links that we feel the impact of a northern hemisphere economic chill.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-winds-of-change-for-the-australian-economy/2012/06/15/

Understanding Banking Alchemy

On Monday, I warned Money Morning readers how the ‘…Spanish Bank ‘Bankia’ is the poster child for this banking sickness. Formed in December 2010 from the consolidation of seven regional ‘cajas’, the Spanish government initially injected €4.5 billion into the bank. That amount predictably evaporated and Bankia is now subject to a massive recapitalisation plan.’

Let’s look at the Bankia deal in more detail.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120616/understanding-banking-alchemy.html

#134 other options on 06.18.12 at 4:39 am

5. You can’t afford the second baby there, abort it.
6. You can’t afford the aging parents, abort em.
7. You can afford your wife… buy her a car.
8. 180k a year is change when living in HP, work harder.
9. Ford wants to sell the HP zoo, move there.
10. Tyr attachment parenting (co-sleeping with your newborn until she’s 2-3 years old).

#135 Piccaso on 06.18.12 at 5:37 am

In Dallas this is a $750 – 2 bdr – 2 bath apartment, comes with all black appliances and washer and dryer, carport for your 350Z, a swimming pool, workout room and business room.

http://www.pinnacleridgeapts.com/p/apartments/photo/dallas-tx-75211/pinnacle-ridge-4756

#136 Deb on 06.18.12 at 5:59 am

Shed lust. From the master of the double entendre.

#137 Don't read his post on 06.18.12 at 6:30 am

Yes, big joke!
I’m selling……hope I can find a big fish

#138 ANONYMOUS on 06.18.12 at 7:18 am

In 1824 a small farmer located in what is now considered to be ‘High Park’, thought that $4 for his 20 acres was insanely high, he felt it was a ‘bubble’ in prices, so he sold and moved elsewhere. Well, guess what 20 acres of land in that area cost now?

The point is that on average land and home prices in the Toronto area are increasing at a rate at is approximately the same as what the stock market is rising at. If the TSX is rising at 4% per year then you can expect home prices to ALSO rise at 4% per year.

Yes, maybe they will go down 10% one year, and 5% the next, but on average, over 100 years they will average a 4% to 6% increase each and every year. SIMPLE.

#139 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 7:37 am

The N3 area of the GTA (Richmond Hill, Thornhill and some of markham close to Yonge coridor) will continue to exhibit the same demand characteristics as high demand 416 areas. The reason is Yonge St. is the natural city center for expansion, Yonge St being most recognized street globally to immigrants from all over the world and will be the natural expansionary progression of the subway line.

If you want the space and real housing that the suburbs have to offer, this is where you should buy.

Strongly disagree. — Garth

#140 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 7:42 am

It seems you really got yourself in trouble today Garth with your post. It does appear somewhat double speak in nature

I do recall you saying in the past that although Leaside would experience less of a drop in price than other areas, I believe your estimate was around 15%, it would still drop.

Are we to conclude from your opinion on High Park today, that it would carry over to an equally high demand area like Leaside, your opinion today being that price drops in the toniest areas are unlikely?

This is the Blog of Selected Memory. My estimate (as published more than a year ago) is for a 15% national average decline, far worse in markets like southern BC and northern Alberta, zero in the Maritimes, flat in 416 and average or better (15%) in the GTA. Local pockets (like Leaside) where demand has always outstripped supply due to location within a 6-million-person zone, will see little impact. Is all this not obvious? — Garth

#141 TurnerNation on 06.18.12 at 7:47 am

Hi Garth. Still flying? FYI an article.

Watch what you say, while at YOW airport. Big Brother is listening.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Ottawa+airport+wired+with+microphones+Border+Services/6788759/story.html

“Ottawa airport wired with microphones as Border Services prepares to record travellers’ conversations

OTTAWA — Sections of the Ottawa airport are now wired with microphones that can eavesdrop on travellers’ conversations.

But whenever that occurs, the technology, “will record conversations,” the agency said in a separate statement in response to Citizen questions.

Meanwhile, as many as 88 of the new high-definition video cameras are to be ready this summer.”

#142 Market Bull on 06.18.12 at 7:53 am

StatsCan latest report:

“National net worth increased 2.0% to $6.7 trillion in the first quarter, the largest quarterly growth rate since the third quarter of 2008.”

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120615/dq120615b-eng.htm

#143 Jack on 06.18.12 at 7:59 am

Hi Garth,

When you say that you don’t think areas such as High Park will plunge, what is your definition of ‘plunge’ in terms of %? Could you see a correction of 20%-30% in the next 1-2 years?
I figure if it go up as quickly, it can come down just as fast.
A saying about all markets… they go up like escalators and come down like elevators.

Thanks,

Jack

#144 timbo on 06.18.12 at 8:14 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18482512

“There is a huge amount of downward pressure on the property market that stems from the fact that all the administrative measures remain in place and at the same time growth in China is slowing,” Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight told the BBC.”

Tighten the speculation will expose the bubble in all its glory. A very smart move and for some a hard lesson….

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/18/eurozone-spain-italy-idUSL5E8HIAAN20120618

The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond went above the 7 percent widely viewed as unsustainable. Italy’s was just above 6 percent.

Negative growth and borrowing at 7%, what could go wrong………..

#145 Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 8:16 am

#141 Market Bull

StatsCan latest report:

From 1981 to 2011, average hourly wages increased by 17% among men aged 45 to 54 and by ONLY 1% among men aged 25 to 34.

http://cansim2.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm?Lang=E&RPM_Action=Module&RPM_ID=101&ResultTemplate=RPM/CLF2-NSI2/RPM2&rpm_working=0?WT.mc_id=twtZ0449.

#146 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 8:24 am

Garth to Bigrider at #139- ” local pockets (like Leaside) where demand has always outstripped supply due to location within a 6 million person zone will see little impact. Is this not all obvious”

Well then, if you buy into the global deflationary scenario, if you have lost your trust of financial markets as most have and if your returns on financial assets have been low to medicre at best and losses at worst, as is the experience of most investors since the turn of the century, then all of us , bull or bears on RE ,should not be surprised at all at the obsession here in T.O for housing.

If Leaside and High Park are not in the crosshairs of a possible price reduction ,but a persons financial assets always are as we have seen past 12 years, then maybe tying up all your money in a house in one of these areas not such a bad idea afterall, provided it’s mostly paid for and afordability not an issue. Perhaps the 40% or less in RE rule you espose to should be thrown out the window when it comes to RE in these areas.?

Just saying.

Lack of diversification leads to financial heartache. — Garth

#147 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 8:27 am

#138 Garth disagrees with N3 area of demand holding up.

Subway is slated for arrival at Yonge and Highway 7 by 2020.

Homes in the area are REAL homes with garages ,space and land, no need far parking passes, laneways etc.

We shall see who is correct about demand.

Call me in 2020. — Garth

#148 Shane on 06.18.12 at 8:28 am

Garth,what about Markham?

What about it? All 905 is at risk. — Garth

#149 timbo on 06.18.12 at 8:33 am

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/fascinating-mortgage-housing-data-points/

“Its not a surprise that Goodman is not expecting a quick housing recovery. She notes an “L” shaped recovery is the most likely outcome. In hr opinion, Home prices have 3-5% more price downside. The, and are likely to stay flat for another 3-5 years to come.”

Prices are not going to march upward? And to think we were all saved……..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47856744

“Analysts told CNBC.com the collapse of the relief rally was hardly a surprise, and blamed at least four different factors. They singled one out in particular: lack of leadership in Europe.”

Kicking the can when you have no plan will not make you the man. Investors are waiting for the golden helicopters to fuel growth……………

#150 Market Bull on 06.18.12 at 8:48 am

#144 Canadian Watchdog:

The undisputed leader in statistical manipulation strikes again.

Aside from cherry-picking individual stats to fit your worn-out thesis, you purposely left out a key word regarding wage gains – the world is “real” wages, meaning after adjusting for inflation.

So much for your voodoo economic analysis.

#151 Regan on 06.18.12 at 8:55 am

Jake, I think you should sell the condo because it’s a condo, and they are always THE weakest link in a RE drop. I love the idea of renting in the same building. I worry about buying when the kids are young and you’ve got a lot on your plate (i.e. do you want a fixer-upper or a high mortgage when you’re also sleep deprived and bleeding cash on baby gear?). Also, portability with infants is a lot easier than when they are school-age, so you DO have a few years to work with.
I have mixed feelings about Garth’s prognosis for ‘demand areas’ keeping their value. In the 1980s I spent several years house-hunting and was priced out of the market until 1995 – post-drop – when I bought my current house for below asking on the strength that no one else made an offer and it was an estate sale and the sellers just wanted to unload the property. Yes, there will always be people wanting to buy in some areas, but their ranks are thinned in a recession, when everyone is financially exhausted or (and the big factor back then) interest rates are high. My house (in Cabbagetown) promptly dropped in value for several more years after I bought it, then steadied and then skyrocketed in the last decade. So I can’t say that ‘prices have been stable for decades’ around here. One more thing – current interest rates aren’t all that low when you compare them to inflation rates. Our parents’ generation found their housing debt being wiped away by a decade of high inflation, not so for us. What feels like a stretch will still be a stretch in 10 and 20 years, and that’s a heavy weight to bear for a big chunk of your life.
Demand is fickle and when a family making $180 feels outgunned – well, the market is definitely off kilter. I think there will be a significant drop, but it will likely take years to play itself out, and things like rates and the economy will be big players in the end.
Buying the crappiest house in the fanciest neighbourhood you can afford has been a reliable way to make sure your repairs pay back and hold value – but with young kids, can you handle that much chaos? I like the bungalow suggestion where you have room to grow but the place is livable fro the start. Or renting in your building. Buying a family-ready house in a crap area will leave just as vulnerable as staying put.

#152 Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 9:00 am

Wrong Side Of Town

This is what happens the average Joe/Jane tries to live in Toronto’s prestigious neighborhood: Foreclosed: http://postimage.org/image/s2zf0awlx/

Oh yes, they passed the TDS ratio.

#153 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.18.12 at 9:06 am

I have lived in the Lower Mainland of Vancouver for over 30 years.

The weather this Winter and Spring has been, without a shadow of a doubt, the wettest, coldest, shittiest weather I can ever remember.

Floods ? Noah was a wimp!
I played golf on Saturday and it was raining so hard a ditch overflowed onto the fairway and caused a waterfall into a pond. It was raining so hard water running off basball caps was knowing balls off the tee as guys were preparing to hit.

Best Plae On Earth……… riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

#154 Toronto_CA on 06.18.12 at 9:11 am

Garth, a follow up note on a future post to clarify may do much to help here. Clearly, you’ve made yourself poorly understood.

If another recession hits (from the Euro crisis and/or Chinese slow down) and pricks the Canada-wide bubble, or if we start running on all 4 cylinders again and interest rates rise with the same bubble-prick; either way I can’t see houses in demand areas staying flat. It didn’t happen in Toronto in the last RE cycles, and it didn’t happen in Miami or Phoenix. It isn’t happening in Vancouver right now, from what I see.

I don’t see why Leaside or North York is somehow special and magically different. You do. Why is that?

#155 daystar on 06.18.12 at 9:12 am

What about location? Will traditional demand areas in Toronto plunge? I’ve answered that already. It’s no. – Garth

After re-reading this and rethinking this and looking into it more your advice is hard not to dispute.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto

And its hoods:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_neighbourhoods_in_Toronto

… tell the story as to why hoods like North Toronto (midown) will hold their own. Chaplin Estates,
Davisville Village, Lawrence Park, Lytton Park, Wanless Park, Yonge and Eglinton… Yorkville, Rosedale, The Annex, Forest Hill, Deer Park, Moore Park, Casa Loma… you can see its value through reduced commuter time and average earnings within these neighborhoods and this combination will go a long way in helping these hoods retain their value but I would still advise caution moreso 4 and 5 years from now.

We need to be careful using the words “flat” to describe future valuations even within these sought after locations as though the zenith peak of TO’s housing bubble will level into a gentle plateau in the midst of what could be a long, drawn out RE led recession fueled first by tighter credit and later, unemployment led by slowing construction and ultimately disruption in financials and the ever volatile markets as rates rise (especially 4 and 5 years from now).

Toronto leads Canada with the highest cost of living and had a healthy (and now not so healthy) runup in valuations driven by cheap credit. Cheap credit, combined with higher values has fueled gentrification and new construction. Toronto is building faster than any other city in North America with cranes swinging all over. Some would claim it as proof that TO is the next Manhattan so realtors suggest but what if what we literally see with our eyes is a continuing worn out economic model of using construction to drive economic growth sowing the seeds of its own destruction?

I’m not downplaying what Toronto has going for it by any means, a not so quick look at wikipedia’s well done writeup mentions Forbes as saying Toronto is the 10th most economically powerful city in the world, holding the worlds 7th largest stock exchange. However… Toronto is not immune to tighter credit, bubbles gone bust and recession. When credit tightens and the cranes stop in a city racing for Vancouver valuations, what happens to demand in the area’s Jake can afford?

T.O. isn’t a place like Pittburgh where valuations didn’t shoot to the moon prior to the U.S. crash and inner city prices stabilized. Facts are Toronto valuations have risen substantially. Can they be sustained over a serious market downturn even in its most coveted places to live?

I think not but to wait for a 10 to 20% correction in its coveted hoods could take 5 years or more if at all and above normal rates to make it happen so Jake, if your reading this, you know what to do. Sell the condo with conditions to lease it back over 2 years and invest wisely and keep building cash but if you need the space, if you buy even 15 minutes farther out, it will cost you over time I believe as this market turns. Maybe you can afford it? I don’t know but think about what valuations in T.O. would be worth if mortgages had to be refinanced at 7… 8%. You need more cash.

#156 WestEndMan on 06.18.12 at 9:20 am

Garth,

You got yourself in trouble today and I think you know it !!

Some of these sought after Toronto neighbourhoods (High Park, Rocesvalles, Bloor West etc…) have seen the most speculating and flipping action in probably the whole of the GTA including the 416. Once interest rates rise these people will be put under more pressure to sell QUICKER due to leverage and will have to drop prices lowering their margins even more.

Also worth mentioning are the in debt up to their eyeballs young families with three kids, wife on mat leave who made the plunge to buy a $700 000 plus house just to find out they need to reno their basement because of flooding……or course this is done with their home line of credit.

Prices will drop everywhere including the 416…..when or how much is the real question.

The average family income in Leaside is $325,000. In Roncesvalles it’s one third that. Figure out which is at risk. This pathetic blog was full of anarchists in Sunday. On Monday it teems with crestfallen vultures. — Garth

#157 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 9:24 am

#145 Garth to Bigrider- ” Lack of diversification leads to financial heartache”

Not if the two areas mentioned hold up or move higher. Deflation will lead to much heartache in the financial markets segments however, ..a certainty. I will let Marketbull chime in on this one if he so wishes.

#146- “Call me in 2020”

Won’t be any need too. Yonge corridor up to Yonge and Highway 7 as alive and well as it has ever been with no price reductions. Anything within 2 kms North of Yonge and Highway 7 sells very quickly at top dollar. Multiple ethnic backgrounds competing for a spot, unlike some of the less ethnically diverse areas of the 905.

#158 JULNICAN on 06.18.12 at 9:29 am

What’s your point with the shed Garth?
Is this the tipping point finally? you think it adds to all the triggers for a crash, yes?
Or is it simply some moron trying out to find a sucker?
Or worst just a joke on the RE situation?
Maybe someone posted the ad on a dare after a few beers: in this case Garth you are the sucker.
I’m sure it’s illegal to rent a shed and to live in one.
I just can’t see where this fits in your equation…
So, again, explain to us what’s your point Garth.

It irritated you. Success. — Garth

#159 daystar on 06.18.12 at 9:30 am

Er, wups, I meant “hard to dispute” Garth

#160 Beach Girl on 06.18.12 at 9:35 am

Friends of mine are going down, hook line and sinker (Financially).

This is major sad. We are all in our fifties, worked, brought up children, laughed, generally enjoyed our lives.

Well, I have always been a renegade. But now, everyone is interested in my communal living lifestyle. No, I am not broke.

To live a minimalist lifestyle and help and enjoy family and friends is so much fun. I personally don’t want to live to 80. That is ugly.

Well, we had a Fathers Day Dinner Party last night. None of the Fathers was with anyone, some people don’t know if they have one. We ate spaghetti and meatballs and swam and got wrecked. Care for the people in your life, you might need them.

#161 Chris on 06.18.12 at 9:55 am

“Waiting for the $900,000 house to turn into a $700,000 property is a flawed strategy.”
—–

A 15% drop would bring that house to 760K. And a 20% drop, within spitting distance of 700K. All this while I thought 15%-20% drop was reasonable to expect – and now it’s suddenly unreasonable?

Did we all forget how to read? Every market is local. Get over the fact most people will never afford expensive hoods. — Garth

#162 Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 9:59 am

#149 Market Bull

Now I know why you think you’re rich. You chasing nothing but numbers like 95% of fools out there.

#163 Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 10:16 am

#149 Market Bull

Here’s more manipulated stats: TREB mid-month GTA sales flat, 416 down 8% or 11% without revisions. http://postimage.org/image/f0puatz25/

#164 Junius on 06.18.12 at 10:19 am

#108 TRT,

Your future education is assured when you finally stop wandering the desert in the delusion of believing that immigration will cause real estate values to hold.

I do notice that you have slightly modified your position from immigration causing increases to now holding value. So you are on your way. The truth will soon be clear and you can stop believing in nonsense.

#165 45north on 06.18.12 at 10:32 am

All 905 is at risk.

that is my feeling too, demand destruction has lowered gasoline prices but when they go up the suburbs are going to look very different. First thing to happen will be 2 car-families become 1 car families – back to the future.

#166 NorthOf49 on 06.18.12 at 10:40 am

Did we all forget how to read? Every market is local. Get over the fact most people will never afford expensive hoods. — Garth

Exactly! There are still people with a lot of money out there who can afford to buy and live in High Park, the Annex, Davisville, etc. These are the guys I work with in the financial district, accounting partners, law firm partners, actuaries, Sr. VPs at the big banks. These guys want to live close, keep the wife happy, and send their kids to UCC. The real problem, is people with no money who can borrow to the hilt and think they can afford to live in these areas.

#167 Daisy Mae on 06.18.12 at 10:43 am

#79 Island Renters: “We’ve seen several properties go from mls to Craigslist rentals when they can’t sell…”

********************

It’s always a vicious circle. I have neighbours who bought a Tuscany Villa penthouse in West Kelowna, at auction — 50% off. But they can’t find a buyer for their present home. So there they sit indefinately, paying strata fees and property taxes for both.

#168 cramar on 06.18.12 at 10:47 am

#61 Sebee on 06.17.12 at 9:06 pm
Hey Toronto,

NY, London, Paris are out of your league. You want to compare yourself to some other city, try Chicago. Any objections? Hey, what’s up with RE in Chicago? Give it few years, Toronto will be same.

———————–

My son who has an MBA, and lives in Chicago has a 1-BR condo in a high rise. Last year, he bought another large foreclosed 3-BR, 2-bath, in the same building. Moved into the 3-BR and now rents the single out. He says that you can tax deduct not only mortgage payments in the U.S., but also the property taxes in MI.

We paid a visit last Oct. and stayed a few days. Plenty of room for the three of us and dog. The view is spectacular! In north Chicago, it overlooks the lake. Just across the road is parkland, sandy beaches, even a separate doggy beach, and the wonderful bike/jogging trail that travels all the way into the downtown city. The condo complex has a fabulous gym with 20 different machines, plus indoor and outdoor pools. Made a condo believer out of me! Did I mention the view? At night you see the lights of Chicago.

He paid $184,000 for the 3-BR!

#169 Doug in London on 06.18.12 at 10:53 am

on a related topic of comparing Toronto and Mississauga, there’s an article in the June 11 Macleans magazine about how fewer young people are getting their drivers licence, and many more who forego car ownership. That fact, along with a longer term trend toward higher fuel can’t be good news for those big houses in the endless sprawl of the suburbs. It does, however, support Garth’s belief that some neighbourhoods in the 416 area will weather the coming correction. So go ahead and rent that $1500/ month house in Mississauga, just don’t buy it. As for those condos in the 416, that’s another matter altogether. How could that gross oversupply not put downward pressure on condo prices, especially in a slower economy?

#170 Market Bull on 06.18.12 at 10:58 am

#162 Canadian Watchdog: TREB mid-month stats.

Aside from bullshitting TREB stats regularly, you forgot to mention that sale prices are up 8% over mid-month stats from last year.

Another accidental omission, I’m sure. Your are hopeless.

#171 Steve on 06.18.12 at 11:00 am

Jake, you need to listen to yourself and pick the real meaning out of the confusion, excerpts shown below:

I’m currently facing a serious dilemma.
We are starting to feel the space squeeze.
We need to stay in the area because of the need to care for aging parents nearby and because my wife needs subway access
We are exhausted from getting regularly destroyed in area bidding wars

Seems to me like you are suffering from a lack of clarity. What are your goals? You appear to be trying to do everything for everyone while at the same time you blur wants and needs. In addition, you are twisting facts into justifications to make your impending decision seem ‘right’.

You appear (unstated but likely true, and Garth called it) to be living beyond your means (and you have a high risk of lower income in near future to boot), otherwise you would have significant other assets besides the house, and you want to trade up to a bigger house, meaning higher risk and financial commitment.

Space is a want. Looking after parents is noble – doing so in High Park is a want. Staying on the subway is a want. TTC has buses, GTA has GO Transit. (If 2 kids = stay-at-home, this becomes irrelevant).

Being exhausted from losing bidding wars? Lucky break. You did not sell your soul, your future, and your children/s future – yet! You knew enough not to jump over the cliff once you looked over it, and yet you are driven to run back to the edge yet again.

So, have an honest look at your own behaviour. We should get some things we want in life, not just things we need, but we should not confuse the two.

Garth says to go with option 4: “Sell and move into a place you can actually afford.”

Figure out how you and your family can make that work, cover all of your real needs, and as many of your wants as you can. There have been some good ideas to debunk your ‘concerns’ (sell and stay was my favourite – delays most real decisions while keeping you liquid) but none of us can distill your life down for you on a blog. None of us will be able to make the decisions for you, and the responsible among us will not encourage denial and blind faith. All we can do is scream NO! when we see you ready to jump…

NO! Sell and move into a place you can actually afford.

#172 Bailing in BC on 06.18.12 at 11:02 am

#159 Beach Girl

I know how you feel. At least one family I know is going down the gurgler. A couple of others are suspect. So sad to see the optimist get sucked out of them.

#173 Karie on 06.18.12 at 11:03 am

Nostramadus – I like the 5 principles of the Wealthy Barber. I try to live like that. I especially like #5.

Beach Girl – Great post! Although I would love to live a healthy life until 80 and beyond.

Observor – Thanks for sharing your finances a bit (a couple days ago)! I am so impressed. I tried to go all equities, investing since 1997 but lost so much money a few years. We mainly buy mutual funds but we have bought some stock but not a lot of luck – lots thousands on Nortel and RIM. Now mainly in index funds and a few stocks like Shoppers Drug Mart. How do you choose your investments and how do you save so much money?

#174 Sebee on 06.18.12 at 11:08 am

Not only are the boomers cashing out, they’re not planning to leave it to their kids.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/18/pf/rich-inheritance/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

#175 Dom on 06.18.12 at 11:18 am

#151Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 9:00 am Wrong Side Of Town

This is what happens the average Joe/Jane tries to live in Toronto’s prestigious neighborhood: Foreclosed: http://postimage.org/image/s2zf0awlx/

Oh yes, they passed the TDS ratio.
——————————————————————–

The house of cards is so huge that when it crashes it will take Canada down hard. I think Garth’s elite buddies told him to tone down the truth. People are streched from the poor to upper middle class. Everyone borrowed more then they can afford. look in the US where the so called wealthy lost everything in the housing crash. look at the tv show orange country house wives and the many financial problems the so called elite had when their house of cards came crashing down.

I thought you were my elite buddy. — Garth

#176 EdmontonJim on 06.18.12 at 11:19 am

It would be interesting if StatsCan would publish distribution curves for household income for provinces and metropolitan areas. If those metropolitan areas then published distribution curves for house valuations we could see just how messed up the housing market has become. In a healthy market the two curves should be roughly the same shape.

I suspect in most markets though, the income curve is skewed to the left, while the RE curve is skewed to the right.

#177 Fat Bastard on 06.18.12 at 11:23 am

Jake…

sell the condo and buy a house. Why do you even bother coming to this places asking for advise… geeez… you can’t help it man. Prices won’t stop going up and you will be priced out forever. This is your NUMBER ONE argument Jake:

“Sell the condo, hold our noses and buy a house for much more than it is really worth, so that we can get settled and have a stable, more spacious home for our growing family.”

You got it big guy. The happiness of a settled family in a stable more spacious home is priceless, priceless Jake. Million dollar bungalows are perfectly normal, look around you man, it’s Toronto! What are you waiting for?

By the way, great planning skills man. Grow out a condo that you haven’t even lived in. Shhweeett !!

You’re richer than you think. Never forget that.

#178 Stoopid on 06.18.12 at 11:24 am

Jake & Wife,
Opinion’s are like A$$holes… every one has one, but in order to realize any profit would one not have to trade down? If not, your so called profit in your todays condo can only be used to trade up and lose any gains by buying said overpriced Home. How legit is the reasons for staying in the neighborhood? If so what parents? All Four? If caring for aging loved one’s are that important, why not all move in together or at the least…. those you get along with best? For that matter why do you all not get out? Excuse’s abound. I’m sure the people in question do not share yours or Garth’s opinion or insights.

Is there a possibility of early inheritance that could come into play or help with a decisions of sorts? Touchy area if you have siblings that don’t share your priorities…. At the end of the day, you two will have to ask not just the hard questions to yourselves but then approach the parents… Good Luck as they may well not share you concerns

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

#179 NAM not HAM on 06.18.12 at 11:28 am

Garth,

Do you see any areas in the lower mainland that could possibly hold its value while other areas correct? Or are we all screwed out here in the BPOE? North Delta seems to be stable as there are very little attached properties and not to many flippers.

No safe place. — Garth

#180 Mr. Anderson on 06.18.12 at 11:38 am

#152 CrowdedElevatorfartz

Don’t you know when to come out of the rain?

#181 disciple on 06.18.12 at 11:38 am

#140 Turnernation… don’t worry, Garth Vader is surrounded by The Amazonian Guard, a concept originating with Gaddafi: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazonian_Guard

#182 EdmontonJim on 06.18.12 at 11:44 am

The discussion of neighbourhoods holding value in the midst of a crash brings up an interesting question Garth.

I think the ‘correct’ valuation in a normal market is 3-4 times the income of the homeowner. That is, if houses in a neighborhood have an average value of about $450,000, then the people buying there probably have incomes in the $150,000 range. Whenever this is not the case then a correction is in order.

But this likely doesn’t hold for high-end homes. I mean the top 5% neighborhoods likely are home to the top 5% of income earners. These people are not so much affected by credit conditions and interest rates as they are stock market performance and general economic conditions.

Since they have different fundamentals, wouldn’t it be more correct to describe the housing market as two separate entities? The bottom 95% market, and the top 5% market. It is that bottom 95% market that will see the correction. The top 5% will, as always, follow the TSX.

And because people seem to be confused. If you are an experienced doctor, lawyer, fund-manager, stock-broker, corporate executive, professional athlete, or celebrity, your kids go to private school, and you never fly coach, and all of your neighbors fit the same, you may be in the top 5%.

If you read this blog. You’re not.

Your market observations have value. The blog observation, not so much. — Garth

#183 Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 11:58 am

#169 Market Bull

My apologies. How could I have ever overlooked the average price while the market is going illiquid.

#184 truth hammer on 06.18.12 at 12:29 pm

Until today I hadn’t realized how many imitators I have spawned…..I guess that’s success eh? I do like to create little nasty barbs that stick between the psychic chinks of sheeple and irritate the dumb-trodden into a moment of uncomfortable conciousness. Disonance is a bitch isn’t it.

With no independant media in Canada we have ended on the intellectual rocks of a ‘two party system’……and absolutley nothing can dislodge the brainwashed winkles from their ‘parties’ positions…..nothing except a cold dose of the truth that is.

The fact is that you have been manipulated into taking far too much for granted…..the status quo today is Greece, Ireland, Spain where expenditures have eclipsed revenues and taxes have exceeded 100%. Past political parties have increased Canadian Debt to GDP to match the PIIGS and yet ‘party politics’ has people disvowing the truth and pointing fingers at the enemy……classic misdirection of the sheeple.

The status quo is leading you off the cliff……welcome to the abyss.

We see the Greeks have ‘voted’ for more debt….more spending……all the while knowing that the cupboard is bare………………Canadians sit back and say ‘Et Tu Brutus’ at the government and the opposition cries for justice for not sending billions in Canadian tax dollars there to ‘help’…..really? Does Canada not have any poverty stricken communities? Apparently not a problem for the keepers of the status quo who would rather decry the policies of change.

Meanwhile……this has got to be great for commodity pricing long term…especially gold silver and plat…….thank you deniers for not piling in with the nut jobs who are buying with both fists.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/greece-blinks-but-respite-could-be-brief/article4300192/

#185 Stoopid on 06.18.12 at 12:29 pm

#137 ANONYMOUS

So how would you then account for the 90+% loss of purchasing power of the dollar in the same period of time…. 4 to 6% YOY…. I don’t think so and not so simple

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers

#186 truth hammer on 06.18.12 at 12:38 pm

BTW…if your ‘portfolio is generating a ‘safe’ 4.5% watch out………it’s not.

“Fed has moved the money-creation lever back up to 4.8% annualized based on the latest (M2) money supply data”

Figure in the ‘rediscovery of fact’ when revisions come in….along with your own observations at the grocery store, gas station and prop tax bills etc etc as inflation goes hyperbolic year after year and 4% returns mean that you lose 20% in purchasing power each and every year. Thats gotta hurt.

#187 Silver on 06.18.12 at 12:39 pm

The most important number is the actual the bill of sale value of all the property in a class that did not sell, and which property has been flipped and when.

Then look at how many of the property’s actually sold.
And how their sale may have affected claimed market value….
Was it one in a hundred, one in twelve, or one in ten.

get a long term look at the stable value… not one driven by levered claims of value…

how many property’s sold out of the gross to affect the value….

try doing it on your property since say…. 1982
Apparently each property sale increases my taxable property value by $6-7,000.00 dollars.
Yes “new”,”apparently real” “equity” that i can borrow against in my pocket…with “interest charged” of course…
somewhere

Silver

#188 joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs on 06.18.12 at 12:41 pm

The social toll of the real estate bubble:

“more than half of respondents agreed that Vancouver is becoming a resort town for the wealthy and that there is too much foreign ownership of real estate. This view was particularly common among people aged 25-34, a group whose responses to many survey questions revealed a marked cynicism about the state of their communities compared with other age groups.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/whoarewe/Social+isolation+reaching+effects+neighbours+survey+says/6797280/story.html#ixzz1yA8WiS8T

#189 joe on 06.18.12 at 12:49 pm

When the market crashed in the US not all markets were affected equally although all markets were affected negatively. Your ‘wobble and fade’ comment seems like your beggining to doubt your own theories, whats next? ‘Flat but stable market’? Your gonna start sounding like the CREA Garth.

How hard is it to understand that all prices are dictated by demand? Certain areas, small but resilient, have consistent demand since they appeal to higher-income groups. Toronto has far more of those than any other city, so while prices will fall in general, not all pockets are affected. I thought a realtor would know that. — Garth

#190 TnT on 06.18.12 at 12:49 pm

Wow people…. There are so many factors for house prices and one of them being “Supply and Demand” should make it simple to understand how a flat-line market makes more sense than a crashing market for the ultra-tight 416 neighborhoods.

People who live in these neighborhoods are the top 1% earners in Toronto. Are you in the 1%? Will you ever be in that 1%?

If affording a home in these ultra-tight 416 neighborhoods requires a US style market crash to buy then it’s time to wake up and get real. You are just as delusional as the people who over extended themselves buying in this market.

Very simple formula people – if your annual rent is equal or less than 15-18 times for owning then better to rent in that neighborhood. Invest the difference and be happy that you are in your desired neighborhood.

#191 Canuck Abroad on 06.18.12 at 12:56 pm

Garth, you say you have not changed your position on Toronto. I say you are waffling and you have changed your position. So why would you do this? Could be because the firm you used to work for was bought by National Bank Financial in July 2011. And there’s a good chance the vast majority of your clients are Toronto based HNW families who are SFH owners in prime neighbourhoods. So are you getting pressure from your new employers to tone it down? Are you trying not to frighten or put off your paying clients with bad news about their real estate holdings? What everyone here forgets is that you, just like everyone else, has to pay the bills and keep your owners and your clients happy. You have changed your message, and in the absence of a better explanation, I’m going to go with this one.

Actually I’ve been captured by horny aliens who covet one, wrecked night with Rob Ford, and this is their non-negotiable request. I think that makes more sense. — Garth

#192 Chris on 06.18.12 at 12:57 pm

That garden shed is a mansion. In Japan.

#193 Macrath on 06.18.12 at 1:16 pm

Doom with panache, James Howard Kunstler

“The “big kids” (the one percenters) like Jamie Dimon, Jon Corzine, Lloyd Blankfein, et al, have stolen the baseball mitts of the dweeby little kids (the 99 percenters) ………………”

http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/06/hazardous-games.html

#194 timbo on 06.18.12 at 1:17 pm

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Recreational+property+market+Alberta+sees+price+decline/6799010/story.html

“For example, the report said the typical starting price for a three-bedroom, winterized recreational property on a standard-sized waterfront lot in Sylvan Lake has dropped to $750,000 from $800,000 a year ago. In 2010, it was $1.2 million and it was $1.125 million in 2009.

It said the starting price for a typical two-bedroom condominium in Canmore has dropped to $195,000 from $229,000 a year ago. In 2010, it was $270,000 and in 2009 it was $295,000.”

It always starts with the toy’s…….

#195 bubble head on 06.18.12 at 1:24 pm

Market Bull / Canadian Watchdog

Its different now

first half of 2011 sales were also down somewhere from 10-20%, however inventory also fell by the same percentage (but a larger amount).

Now inventory is UP 16% and sales are falling.
if this continues prices will start to fall

#196 Spiltbongwater on 06.18.12 at 1:25 pm

I can tell Garth has never shopped at Ikea. If he had, he would not be concerned about the square footage of the shed. I, like many Ikea shoppers whould like to know what the cubic footage is of the garden shed accomodation.

#197 Alex on 06.18.12 at 1:27 pm

I live in Regina and a friend showed me this blog a few days ago.

That shed would get rented out tomorrow if it was in my city.

I just don’t buy this “RE will crash” view for the city I live in with the strong growth we are seeing here and projected growth into the future. I have friends who tell me that RE here will crash up to 50% in the next 5 years and I think they are insane.

Maybe Garth cares to respond?

#198 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 06.18.12 at 1:27 pm

The 1% club ain’t a one way street, they can rejoin the 99%ers at any time. I’m sure a few in the 416 have already sold the Muskoka money pit and are just hanging on to their city digs. When the SHTF they will feel tremendous stress too. All it takes is a few weak hands to start bringing prices down. Add to that the weak entrants who should have never been there in the first place and the rock solid cubbies will get blasted by dynamite.

And since when does fighting for financial freedom, sound money, free markets and small limited government make one an anarchist? Get a grip.

#199 Atrate on 06.18.12 at 1:35 pm

I guess peoples’ expectations evolve with the times. In reading about Jake’s need for increased space due to the arrival of a 2nd child, I thought back to my own childhood. With my siblings and parents, we were 7 people. I remember living for several years in a one-bedroom apartment with this gang. My parents got the bedroom, and the kids bunked on couches, air mattresses, in the case of my little sister, almost a year in a dresser drawer. Sure, it was cramped, and we didn’t have much cash, but I don’t recall ever really minding it. When we could afford to move to a better (bigger) apartment, we did. I think that one had two bedrooms :) I’m 50 years of age, just to give y’all a perspective on the kind of time frame I’m talking about.

All of this to say, maybe sometimes expectations or perceptions are what drive needs and desires, rather than rational, logical thinking. But then Garth has always said that logic often doesn’t enter into a house-buying mindset.

I live in a 1600 square foot semi. It’s plenty of room for myself, a cat and one part-time boarder. I bought it 5 years ago; at the time the purchase price was about 1.9 x my income. I didn’t know about stuff like that back then; I only stumbled on to Garth about 18 months ago. By sheer good luck, I think, I’ve managed to avoid a lot of the emotion about having a house. It’s a place to live that I’d sell in a New York second it it came to that.

I have Garth to thank for how my thinking has changed in some ways. But I just wonder if having expectations bigger than your pocketbook or bank balance might not be responsible for some of the decisions being made out there.

Speaking of….here is a very interesting article that seems to show that peoples’ expectations are changing in some ways:

http://grist.org/list/america-has-40-million-big-houses-that-no-one-wants/

#200 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 1:41 pm

What a pile of nonsense all the 905 doom and gloom predictions are. “416 areas will hold up 905 doomed” BS bigtime.

Reminds me of the predictions of 100 + years ago when it was thought that horse manure was going to be the end of the big city. No more did that come to fruition then will the predictions of high oil prices be the end of the burbs. Huge amounts of oil in existence only to get cheaper as fracting technology contiues to make further leaps and bound.

30 years ago Bathurst was a dirt road north of Hwy7 when we moved up here. Farms at Bathurst and Carville side road. Could have bought acerages of land four high four figures. Now worth high sevens.

15 to 20 years ago Barrie was called a no mans land. Again houses and land for the price of a song and beads, now Barrie a city onto itself with prices commensurate with a city like Chicago.

If and when prices correct, they will be as dramatic for 416 as 905 as debt levels have been exceeded in both regions.

As for Garth’s comment about average family incomes in Leaside being 325k he is correct as they are reported..he should sit in a coffee shop in Woodbridge, Klienburg or some parts of Vaughan and watch the Ferrari’s go by and try to guesstimate the unreported amounts.

#201 Canadian Watchdog on 06.18.12 at 1:45 pm

A new 2.99% mortgage comes to town http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/breaking-news/a-new-2-99-comes-to-town/123857/

And so OSFI’s response is proven correct that no regulation was enough rope for the little CAAMP brokers to hang themselves with.

NIMs will shrink them into insolvency.

#202 Market Bull on 06.18.12 at 1:45 pm

#193 bubble head:

Inventory will have to increase by far more than 16% to have a real affect on prices in the GTA real estate market.

Overall listing inventory is still running at below two months supply.

Personally I would like to see price increases moderate slightly, perhaps down 3-5% annualized.

Remember prices moderating slightly is NOT a crash. Although it will get the dawgs here howling like hyena’s in any case.

#203 jess on 06.18.12 at 2:13 pm

96 meslippery
…giving yourself a bling luxury brand through a “straw” receiver and call it an act of kindness?

Tremonti
Articles by Walter De Cesaris
The Speculative Real-Estate Bubble and the Securitisation Scandal in Italy

….What is SCIP? The news media5 tell us that SCIP was born on November 23, 2001 in a notary office in Rome and was founded by two lawyers representing two Dutch foundations having their headquarters in Luxembourg; its social capital amounts to 10,000 (yes, that’s right, ten thousand!) and with a Scottish citizen in his 70s, Gordon Burrows, as president. In short, to speak plain, SCIP is an empty container. But capable of making money for itself and for the banking system

http://www.transform-network.net/en/journal/people/article/the-speculative-real-estate-bubble-and-the-securitisation-scandal-in-italy.html

#204 Steve on 06.18.12 at 2:20 pm

Actually I’ve been captured by horny aliens who covet one, wrecked night with Rob Ford, and this is their non-negotiable request. I think that makes more sense. — Garth

I knew it!

#205 DodgedBullet on 06.18.12 at 2:21 pm

Hi Garth,

You opened a can of worms this time around.

Well defended, thanks for all the efforts and sensible information/advice.

Bests, Ben.

#206 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 2:21 pm

Here is a precdiction or two for all to consider.

1) I predict that people will get tired of living like bees in a beehive and start to exit condos in the city in droves, as they seek greater space.

2)Well to do people in high density, high demand areas with houses in the GTA that need to park their cars on the street and lsiten to noises at all hours of the night ,who continue to be densified by condo tower after condo tower will seek greener pastures( or anything green period) as they move out of the core for greater space.

3) The trend of today for ‘new’ homes with the latest granite and stainless steel at the expense of land size will morphe back to purchasers who look at land first (space theme again) before the colour of tiles and kitchen cupboards.

Disclaimer: all above predictions have same likelyhood of coming to fruition as the death of the suburbs do..LOL

#207 Doug in London on 06.18.12 at 2:24 pm

@bigrider, post #198:
Only time will tell if higher fuel prices spell an end to the suburbs. Recently crude oil and fuel prices have dropped because more supply is coming on line and demand has dropped due to a slower economy. The drop is amplified by speculators who drove prices higher earlier this year, they got burned and now aren’t driving up the price anymore. In the short term, that spells low or lower prices. However, in the long run demand keeps going up in emerging market countires like China. The rate of demand increase has slowed as economig growth has slowed, but it’s still going up. Only time will tell if increase in supply can continue to keep pace with demand. Given that information, I wouldn’t want to put a large amount of money into a suburban house. I’d consider buying a dirt cheap place outside Windsor, but not a pricey monster home in Markham. Didn’t Garth say something about not putting all your investment eggs in one basket?

#208 The Millionaire Next Door on 06.18.12 at 2:27 pm

Many posters today are commenting on the top 1% living in the swanky areas of the 416 never seeing their property values dropping. Everyone should read the Millionaire Next Door to see what the probable status is on many in these swanky neighbourhoods. I will give everyone the ultra Cole’s note version. The PhDs who wrote this book found that in the swanky areas of American cities that had the top 1% wage earners, debt was very, very pervasive. The lifestyles of these top 1% lead to little to no savings and in fact loads of debt. I know first hand that some of my friends who live in swanky neighbourhoods cannot match my net worth and yet on the surface they appear to be better off. They drive fancier cars, have more expensive homes in better hoods, have kids in private school etc., but at the end of the day, they have a much smaller net worth than me. This was the conclusion of the authors of The Millionaire Next Door. They found people with a substantial net worth often did not even live in the swankiest neighbourhoods.

#209 jess on 06.18.12 at 2:35 pm

The report shows that school closings are on the increase this year. Among the findings:

•There are 50 schools closing in 2012, compared to 43 in 2011.•Across the province, there are 125 schools slated to close or recommended for closing over the next 2 to 4 years.
•A further 142 schools are currently undergoing Accommodation Reviews for possible closing.•The average elementary school now has 318 students, compared to an average of 365 in 1997/98.
•There are 794 students in an average secondary school, compared to a high of 879 students per school in 2000/01.
Funding formula based on 1997 enrolments

Two-thirds of a school board’s funding is based on enrolment, but average school sizes have declined by over 14% since 1997 when the provincial funding formula for education was developed. Changes to the formula have not kept pace with the changing sizes of schools. Principals and secretaries are now funded mainly on a “per school” basis, but funding for most other staff continues to be based on numbers of students.

This year, the province has adjusted the formula to “encourage” boards to close more of their small or underutilized schools. A targeted declining enrolment grant is being reduced, and funding that allowed urban boards to keep schools open that were below capacity will be cut over the next three years. For the coming school year, this translates to a cut of approximately $50 million. As a result many new school closing reviews may be announced in the coming months.

Accommodation Review Process needs review

There are currently 142 schools under review for possible closure in the province. The review process, known as an Accommodation Review Committee (ARC), is provincially mandated, with adjustments made to meet local board needs

#210 jess on 06.18.12 at 2:39 pm

the sisters are swinging back

…Rome went further by condemning a book by seventy-seven-year-old theologian Sister Margaret Farley. Even though the text in question did not claim to represent official Church teachings, it was dubbed heretical because of its defense of remarriage by divorcees and masturbation (the horror!), not to mention same-sex relationships. Pro-choice advocates have long contended that the attack on reproductive rights doesn’t stop at abortion; it’s a crusade against contraception, sexual freedom, and women’s rights as a whole. Rome has gone far in proving their point.

In a sharp response, Times columnist Maureen Dowd wrote:

The denunciation of Sister Farley’s book is based on the fact that she deals with the modern world as it is. She refuses to fall in line with a Vatican rigidly clinging to an inbred, illusory world where men rule with no backtalk from women, gays are deviants, the divorced can’t remarry, men and women can’t use contraception, masturbation is a grave disorder and celibacy is enshrined, even as a global pedophilia scandal rages.
Of course, the sisters are amply able to speak for themselves. On June 18, a group of them will embark on a bus tour crossing nine states, in which they will visit food pantries, homeless shelters, and charity ministries. It is a striking and unusual form of civil disobedience within the institution of the Church.

On Monday, Sister Simone Campbell went on the Colbert Report to promote the bus tour, stating her case well and giving the satirist some choice opportunities to send up the Vatican

#211 Raj on 06.18.12 at 2:56 pm

Big Reversal ?
GTA REALTORS® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_mid_month_0612.htm

I think it’s a huge reversal from just last month.Sales flat and inventory up by 16%

#212 basement dweller on 06.18.12 at 3:07 pm

#201 Market Bull

Active inventory is also starting to rise, it was at 20000 last month and only reached a high of 27000 during the sept 08-nov 08 crash and then hovered at 23000 for the first half of 09 (when prices were down y/y).

I agree that at the end of the day the price is what matters.

#213 Derek R on 06.18.12 at 3:09 pm

#207 The Millionaire Next Door on 06.18.12 at 2:27 pm wrote
Many posters today are commenting on the top 1% living in the swanky areas of the 416 never seeing their property values dropping.

When talking about the 1% you’ve got to be clear about who you mean. For the top 1% of wage earners what you report is probably true. For the top 1% in net worth it’s probably false.

#214 Devore on 06.18.12 at 3:16 pm

#127 Canuck Abroad

There is no way Jake is going to take that advice. This is a generation that does not do compromise. He is going to buy the 900k house. But at least you tried.

Prices will go down, Jake will be fine, assuming they maintain their income. Prices will go flat, Jake will still be fine. 15 years from now prices will have recovered. 20 years from now, the new runup will begin, and he’ll be telling his son, who is about to get married, what a great investment buying a house is, and he should man up and just do it. And the circle of life will repeat.

What is so daunting about moving twice? People are so lazy. I find moving very cathartic. Everything gets packed up, reorganised, rediscovered.

And thrown out. Oh man, what a great way to downsize and get rid of all the junk you have laying around. But most people end up renting a storage unit, or buying a bigger house for all their stuff.

#215 EdmontonJim on 06.18.12 at 3:29 pm

Your market observations have value. The blog observation, not so much. — Garth

:D
Just being trite. I’m sure a good number of the upper percentile come here. I’m not one of them (Although I know afew and hope to be one someday)

But I’d say that the group of people that are most at risk are those average, “You’re Richer Than You Think” segment who confuse financial advisors and salesmen.

If your new neighbor works in Fort Mac, you might not be in a 5% neighborhood.

#216 bubble head on 06.18.12 at 3:30 pm

#210 Raj

not a reversal a trend.

The first part of last year 2011 sales were down y/y (-10%)from 2010 so it was easier beat,
however sales from June to December of 2011 sales were higher (+10%) than the 2010 making it harder to sustain
I think you will see sales falling y/y from this point.

#217 Erebus on 06.18.12 at 3:34 pm

@ #196 Alex

Yeah, it’s different in Regina. But that’s what people in Toronto, London, Vancouver, Kelowna, Whistler, Calgary, Edmonton, Canmore, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Weyburn, etc. are saying about their cities too. Damn we’re one different country for sure!

#218 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 3:46 pm

Beach Girl about not wanting to live past eighty..

I will ask you the day before you turn 80 if you wish to live or die on that day. I would venture a guess and make more than a substantial bet that your answer will be to live.

Lots of bravado is easy when your somewhat younger or middle aged and death seems far away, but when the final day comes, it will be hard to let go and you will fight hard to stay in this world.

How do I know you ask? I have watched those in their nineties, my grandparents for example, die and they all wanted just a few more days.

#219 Big Al New on 06.18.12 at 4:19 pm

Just move out of that $hit hole called Toronto! Oh my god what is it with people and that city. I lived there for most of my life and it’s never been as bad as it is right now with the number of big city wanna be’s that populate it.
Having left now for more than six years it has been the best decision we’ve ever made. Between the traffic gridlock and the dysfunctional City Counsel the lunatic evaluations placed on run down shacks and the wall of condos being built along the lakeshore and areas North, it will soon be necessary for this left leaning counsel to prohibit all vehicles from entering the city, mark my words.
God this is so ludicrous it defies logic but then so is the fact that the banks are willing to lend to these evaluations.

#220 Market Bull on 06.18.12 at 4:24 pm

Shhhhhhh….Don’t tell anyone, but the Mortgage Qualifying Rate (MQR) quietly fell another 10 basis points to 5.24%.

#221 Snowboid on 06.18.12 at 4:43 pm

#166 Daisy Mae on 06.18.12 at 10:43 am…

We have friends from Alberta that are in the same ‘boat’ out in Quail Ridge – saw a hot deal on a townhouse, but somehow thought they could sell their condo for the same price they paid 5 years ago!!

Some of my favourite penthouse listings in Kelowna:

http://tinyurl.com/7t76tww

http://tinyurl.com/8972mq4

http://tinyurl.com/7wfmexk

Seems some of the 1% club want to be closer to the ground?

#222 neo on 06.18.12 at 4:47 pm

Toronto is not immune or different, but in small and defined areas where houses have sold in a week for decades, demand consistently outstrips supply. This is not true of the wider urban area. With 6,054,191 people, the GTA is larger than eight provinces. As I said, all markets are local and within this area there are many. Your generalization is of no value. — Garth

Garth,

The population of Tokyo (32,450,000) is the equivalent of the entire Canadian population. That trumps your TO larger than 8 provincies analogy and that didn’t stop their housing collapse OR prevent it from stagnating for 20 years afterwards. I am sure there are small defined pockets in Tokyo that have maintained their value as well. But in aggragate there has been total wealth destruction that has occured even with their masses. I agree with others. You seem to be hedging somewhat.

News flash: this is not Japan. Neither housing nor equities will fall 60%. — Garth

#223 truth hammer on 06.18.12 at 5:10 pm

UN has become the worst example of politically correct posturing the world has ever seen….a haven for dictators , greed and war criminals……time to withdraw from this joke of a money pit.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/06/18/un-slams-quebecs-alarming-anti-protest-legislation-bill-78/

#224 truth hammer on 06.18.12 at 5:27 pm

Desperatley politically correct mush reaches out of the grave…….”Please”, he says “make everyone the same”.

The class warfare over grades, failure, position and education status reaches a new low as posited by an NDP ‘washout’.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/17/john-ivison-new-motion-calls-for-random-seating-to-help-improve-decorum-in-the-house-of-commons/

This and ‘no fail’ policies in the education system ensure a generation of turds to follow.

Now, where’s my communal vegetable patch allotment?

#225 Sebee on 06.18.12 at 5:50 pm

#167 cramar on 06.18.12 at 10:47 am

He paid $184,000 for the 3-BR!

>
Guess what cramar, a lot of people will be converted when 3BR condos are $200K. That’s a price that makes sense. If Chicago isn’t too good for $200K 3BR condos, neither is Toronto. We’ll be there soon.

#226 daystar on 06.18.12 at 5:57 pm

#196 Alex on 06.18.12 at 1:27 pm

I haven’t heard of a 50% RE decline from Garth on any market that I’m aware of. If you are looking for a response, since you are new to the site try the archives first. You’ll find all kinds of responses there from Garth and for what its worth, its more than supply and demand that effects RE values. Incomes and credit conditions play a huge role with affordability that ultimately decide valuation factors. There’s no mystery behind inflated values over the last decade and there’s no mystery to what will take valuations down. Trust me, it takes more than higher incomes and tight supply to get hammers swinging. Happy reading.

#227 HD on 06.18.12 at 5:58 pm

Garth,

You have taken a lot of criticism/abuse today regarding the position you took on your last blog entry. You mentioned several times that you held the same position about a year ago. Would care to post a link to a previous blog entry that explains your views on certain local markets in Toronto?

No. I made it all up. — Garth

#228 Nonno Nicola on 06.18.12 at 6:02 pm

#216 Bigga Rider

“How do I know you ask? I have watched those in their nineties, my grandparents for example, die and they all wanted just a few more days.“

You a very smarta younga fellow Bigga Rider. You are a showing some good sagezza for a young whipper snapper. I hada suffer through my owna mamma dying and she was in so mucha pain dat she just wanted to die. I tink dis is vat da Beach Girl mighta be referring to. I justa gotta backa from mya cruise and Tonino tolda me you and hima had some good exchanges on dis pathetico blog. Viva Italia, we justa gotta through to da knockout stage of da Euro.

#229 Nonno Nicola on 06.18.12 at 6:05 pm

211 Derek

“When talking about the 1% you’ve got to be clear about who you mean. For the top 1% of wage earners what you report is probably true. For the top 1% in net worth it’s probably false.“

A very good point I failed to make. I agree and it was wage earners that were observed not those in net worth.

#230 P & T S on 06.18.12 at 6:09 pm

News flash: this is not Japan. Neither housing nor equities will fall 60%. — Garth

Dead right there – just compare the innovation histories and workplace environment / management attitudes.

Just compare what Japan has achieved (despite nuclear attack . . . .), with what Canada has “achieved”.

Just compare infrastructure development and ongoing commitment,

Just compare their World-class development in robotics and “Human-acceptable” Animatronic systems (ageing population, so they are doing something about actually CARING for their aged.)

Don’t know about equities, but I’d prefer to NOT bet on a collapse in housing, especially in Canada and Australia – biggest bubbles, furthest to fall to “Long Term Average”.

Bye Bye “Wealth Effect”, bye bye spending power (and inclination), bye bye tax-based economy (or even worse, “hello” to Californian strategy of taxing the remaining residents to hell once businesses have had enough and relocated “elsewhere”).

#231 davis_cup on 06.18.12 at 6:13 pm

Toronto is not immune or different, but in small and defined areas where houses have sold in a week for decades, demand consistently outstrips supply. This is not true of the wider urban area. With 6,054,191 people, the GTA is larger than eight provinces. As I said, all markets are local and within this area there are many. Your generalization is of no value. — Garth

Garth,

The population of Tokyo (32,450,000) is the equivalent of the entire Canadian population. That trumps your TO larger than 8 provincies analogy and that didn’t stop their housing collapse OR prevent it from stagnating for 20 years afterwards. I am sure there are small defined pockets in Tokyo that have maintained their value as well. But in aggragate there has been total wealth destruction that has occured even with their masses. I agree with others. You seem to be hedging somewhat.

News flash: this is not Japan. Neither housing nor equities will fall 60%. — Garth

As a casual observer of this blog, it’s a bit disingenuous of Garth to say the Ops point is moot because “this is not Japan. Garth, you yourself constantly draw parallels to the US housing market as an argument to portend future declines.

Study Japanese economics of the 1980s, then come back. — Garth

#232 Observor on 06.18.12 at 6:17 pm

ALBERTANS PAY THE HIGHEST INCOME TAX?

Who’d a thunk it?

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120618/t120618b002-eng.htm

Admittedly caused mostly by higher income.

The only thing worse than having to pay a lot of income tax, is not having to…

I hope to pay fortunes in income tax…

#233 BPOE's BrainFart on 06.18.12 at 6:19 pm

@#179 Mr Anderson

I’ve seen you golf at the PIG before.
You still wouldnt understand.
Gee, Long range forecast for next satyrday and sunday in Vancouver?????
Rain, rain and more rain.
Time for a frontal lobotomy or a bottle in front of me….

#234 jess on 06.18.12 at 6:24 pm

getting fugly

.. EU commission president José Manuel Barroso insisted the origins of the eurozone crisis lay in the unorthodox policies of American capitalism….
When asked by a Canadian journalist “why should North Americans risk their assets to help Europe?” he replied: “Frankly, we are not here to receive lessons in terms of democracy or in terms of how to handle the economy…

“By the way this crisis was not originated in Europe … seeing as you mention North America, this crisis originated in North America and much of our financial sector was contaminated by, how can I put it, unorthodox practices, from some sectors of the financial market.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/g20-summit-barroso-eurozone-crisis

#235 Basement dweller on 06.18.12 at 6:27 pm

Canadian watchdog

What’s up with Redpin.com changing their stats for their weekly update?

http://www.theredpin.com/blog/canada/toronto-real-estate-–-your-weekly-mls®-update-–-june-18-2012

#236 Johnny D on 06.18.12 at 6:36 pm

@196 Alex

Saskatchewanites are the second most indebted population in Canada next to Albertans. The pins are already set up to take a bigger hit than other regions. No amount of jobs can stop that… unless wages go up 200% like real estate did.

#237 Smoking Man on 06.18.12 at 6:47 pm

Wow what weekend

Twins Duo team,
Ringo Star at falls view and
Walenda on a wire,
Jays Game and evening on the harbour in the ss smoking man.

Get a flyer in the mail. My Hood where I told all you bubble heads to buy.

2011 april 486k
2011 april 669k

anyone miss me.

#238 [email protected] on 06.18.12 at 7:20 pm

So where are the better priced homes in the gta? barrie?

#239 Investx on 06.18.12 at 7:23 pm

Garth,

You have taken a lot of criticism/abuse today regarding the position you took on your last blog entry. You mentioned several times that you held the same position about a year ago. Would care to post a link to a previous blog entry that explains your views on certain local markets in Toronto?

No. I made it all up. — Garth
——————————————————-

Ahhh… The convenient sarcastic response. Classic.

#240 jess on 06.18.12 at 7:28 pm

What country doesn’t have a property/banking scandal

…”an executive of a shuttered South Korean savings bank hanged herself with her scarf in a Seoul motel.
She was a credit officer at Mirae Mutual Savings Bank whose chairman was caught fleeing to China in a fishing boat three weeks before. She’s the latest casualty of a scandal that has been eating at the periphery of Korea’s banking industry for more than a year.

So far, regulators have closed Korea’s 20 weakest banks. Prosecutors have uncovered illicit lending and lax oversight, leading to indictments of nearly 200 people and at least two jail sentences. Four bank executives have committed suicide, according to police. More than 88,000 depositors and bondholders, many of them retirees, saw 1 trillion won ($857 million) of their savings in excess of insured levels vanish

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-18/suicides-arrests-show-trouble-at-korean-savings-banks.html

#241 patiently waiting on 06.18.12 at 7:40 pm

#219Snowboid on 06.18.12 at 4:43 pm
#166 Daisy Mae on 06.18.12 at 10:43 am…

We have friends from Alberta that are in the same ‘boat’ out in Quail Ridge – saw a hot deal on a townhouse, but somehow thought they could sell their condo for the same price they paid 5 years ago!!

Some of my favourite penthouse listings in Kelowna:

http://tinyurl.com/7t76tww

http://tinyurl.com/8972mq4

http://tinyurl.com/7wfmexk

Seems some of the 1% club want to be closer to the ground?
—————————————————————–
The first one was originally listed for $3.95 mil in Mar. 2009 . . . current price is $1,750,000 below original price . . .

The second one is a beauty . . . it was originally put on the market for $6.5 mil in October 2008 . . . thats a $4.1 million price reduction!

Wonder what they will be listed at by next year . . .

#242 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.18.12 at 7:48 pm


No. I made it all up. Actually I’ve been captured by horny aliens who covet one, wrecked night with Rob Ford, and this is their non-negotiable request. I think that makes more sense. — Garth” — Been reading too much Dilbert. Wally’s just back from Elbonia. Go have a night out with him, and fuggedaboud uz for a while.

#195 Spiltbongwater — “I, like many Ikea shoppers whould like to know what the cubic footage is of the garden shed accomodation.” — You forgot one important aspect — if Dr. Who were to rent that shed, it would then become a Tardis, traveling thru time and space, and having a vast interior with enough space to fit a closet McMansion in!
*
There is no doubt that, after an approximate 90-min. workout in the gym, barely being able to crawl into the change room, crawl buk nekkid into a brutal, steaming, hot and dry sauna for 20 minutes or so, then, gasping for breath, turning on a lukewarm to cold shower is one of the most invigorating adventures known to man.

It’s a lot less time consuming than climbing Mt. Everest, that’s fer sure!
*
Money For Nothing? SS Bernanke China has not fired their torpedos yet; Pensions Slashed What the elite want, they get (through wars, uprisings and chaos), and UK Soldiers fired; New Scapegoat EZone. Obomba has to blame someone for his own shortfalls; Depreciating Assets That’s what China is doing in NAmerica; Spain and Greece They are in the next round of Euro 2012; Bank Holiday in NAmerica would be a nightmare; 4:39 clip Dumb and dumber; Fake Jobs Propaganda “. . . the corporate elite have re-launched their propaganda campaign designed to create a false reality wherein there are millions of jobs in the United States that Americans are not filling because they lack the skills to do so.”
*
FF in MEast “BULL BISCUITS! Egypt is mired in its own internal issues and is not going to be attacking Israel. This is a false-flag operation to justify Israel’s oft-stated goal of retaking control of the Sinai.” wrh.com. Luring Egypt into war? Stopping Time Scientists are wrong. Matter, Energy, Space and Time are needed in the lower psychic regions. They will finish one day, but not for hundreds of thousands of years; ‘Net Censorship Western govts. are being shown for what they are — thugs, and ‘Net Censorship Two; Growing One’s Own Food “Dieting will become a lot easier when you read what the money=junkies are doing with your food (and why they are scared you might decide to start growing your own).” wrh.com and Strawberry Fields Forever Fifty different chemicals; Mexican Spring Similar to the Arab Spring, and 7:42 clip Obomba justifies FEMA Camps; Italy and the (resurrected) Red Brigade; Chicago Better than Toronto for murders.

#243 Mr. Anderson on 06.18.12 at 7:49 pm

#231 BPOE’s BrainFart

Dislike surgery, I’ll opt for the bottle ABSOLUTley.

#244 Beach Girl on 06.18.12 at 7:59 pm

I am in no danger of death that I am aware of. I did indeed nurse both dying parents. We ate properly, they got drunk, swam and enjoyed what was left. Happy in their collective thoughts. It was a nice ending. In weeks of each other. It is not all about money. Nice to have some though.

#245 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 06.18.12 at 8:10 pm

#230 Observor on 06.18.12 at 6:17 pm

ALBERTANS PAY THE HIGHEST INCOME TAX?

Who’d a thunk it?

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120618/t120618b002-eng.htm

Admittedly caused mostly by higher income.

The only thing worse than having to pay a lot of income tax, is not having to…

I hope to pay fortunes in income tax…
———–
What are you a stupid ox? A beast of burden.
You can pay mine too if you want.

Do you not realize taxes are a yoke? Dumb ox.

#246 bigrider on 06.18.12 at 8:13 pm

#226 Nonno Nicola.

Middle aged is not that young but thanks for the complement.

Beach Girl made it clear that she did not want to live to eighty..ugly is the way she put it I think.

She made no mention of ill health, her comment was clear and concise in that age 80 is not an age she would wish to reach, regardless of health, or at very least she made no mention of presumed health.

I am quite sure that on the day before she turns 80, assuming she makes it, she will be looking for more years to live.

I would portend that even with ailments that are somewhat managable, or downright debilitating, she would want to live.

The survival instinct is overwhelming to most.

#247 Casual Observer on 06.18.12 at 9:57 pm

Assuming Jake’s aging parents are also homeowners, why not sell their home as well as his condo and pool resources to buy a SFH with in-law suite? That way parents are close (easier to care for) and you can perhaps stay in the same area.

If a major requirement is the need to stay close to care for parents, then they shouldn’t mind contributing as it will benefit them as well. Just a suggestion.

#248 Snowboid on 06.18.12 at 10:00 pm

#238 patiently waiting on 06.18.12 at 7:40 pm…

Well done, I had heard the first one was sold for $ 3.75 million – but the second one – what a drop!

Even for wealthy owners that has to hurt!

#249 neo on 06.19.12 at 6:59 am

News flash: this is not Japan. Neither housing nor equities will fall 60%. — Garth

Who said anything about equities falling 60%?

News flash. The other 8 provinces are nothing like TO either. Like you said all markets are local. Saying TO has 6 million people so it will be more immune to a crash because there will always be demand isn’t a good argument. That’s all I was pointing out with Japan.

Learn to read. I said an area with 6,000,000 people is not a homogenous market, but an amalgam of many. — Garth