The chick magnet

About a year ago this blog took pity on a young, self-absorbed, chauvinistic, beefy, ballsy piece of work named Chad. He wrote me with a problem. I answered.

“My girlfriend is wanting us to get into a starter home with the money we have saved as a down payment,” he moaned (at the time he had $85K). “I’ve stayed away from real estate since coming here in 2007. As the rent would be the same as the mortgage, how can I convince her that it’s a terrible idea? As I’ve been telling her for a couple years now any drop in prices would steal away our savings instantly. I need advice.”

Chad’s in Vancouver, so you can imagine what the advice was. Put your pants back on. Tell her no.  Explain why. Invest the money in sexy liquid assets. Rent. If she leaves you, be cool. It wasn’t love.

So how did the little wiener make out? We have an update. And, yes, she split.

“Garth man, it’s Chad again. Long time, no talk! Blog hounds will definitely know who I am and although over the past year I’ve continued to be a daily reader of your blog, I’m coming to you again for some life advice.

“I’m now 29 and have continued on the same course. Although the stock market has hurt me a bit lately I’ve managed to grow my net worth to $235k. Still in my government job and I’m fortunately NOT one of the ones who received a pink slip. I still have a good mix of stocks, bonds, ETFs, and preferreds. I’m a total sucker for that juicy dividend tax credit and capital gains which is the bulk of my investment income. I’m also planning to move out of my current digs in the fall to rent something in the $800-$1,200 range.

“I managed to land a Vancouver girl earlier in the year. You should have seen her Garth she was a real babe….5’11” brunette that was really built! She would have definitely been Amazonian certified. Sadly it ended in April because she was apparently “Looking for a life partner.” While she definitely passed inspection, I wasn’t prepared to make an offer with no conditions after only 3 months of looking. So it appears true, girls do date guys named Chad!

“I’m really happy with what is going on in Vancouver right now. Finally, I’m being vindicated for my beliefs, but now I come to you with another question. I would eventually like to own a place in this city, but how do I know when prices are reasonable again? Some have said take 40% off the peak, others have said to look and rent vs mortgage payment ratios. Is there any quick and dirty way to know when to pull the trigger? Garth, I’d like nothing more than to take some North Van condo off the hands of a HAM sucker who gets totally done over in the process!

“Plus, you know a lot of babes live in North Van right? I don’t know what’s in the water there but damn. I was pretty happy with some of the responses last time, so my second question to you is this. Have you ever thought of starting a dating site? “G-Harmony” Perhaps? Maybe match us financially astute with each other? After all, someone needs to save the world by providing capital to those in debt.

“I’m still looking for a single Vancouver babe 21-31 who can rock a form fitting pants suit. That hot banker/lawyer/investment advisor look does it for me every time! I’m also well over 6 feet so I definitely don’t discriminate on height.”

Nauseating, isn’t he?

But at least Chad heeded the word. His net worth’s grown nicely, in part thanks to a diversified and balanced portfolio – capital gains on the bonds, income from the preferreds and protection from volatility. He’s avoided the fatal bullet of home ownership in a city where real estate’s going from deity to disgust. If this skin-wrapped bundle of vibrating hormones had used his $85,000 as a down on a $500,000 condo, today he could well have lost half or more of his equity, and be 12 months away from a complete wipe-out – all the while paying far more monthly in mortgage, taxes and strata fees than the same place would take in rent.

Now he wants a vultch a condo across the bridge, where the babes are. So, is it time?

Of course not. As I wrote yesterday, tis nothing but a sucker’s market and a 12% decline in a few months is a fraction of what will inevitably materialize. It’s not just a Vancouver phenom, either. In any city with utterly unsustainable valuations – with Skatch, the Peg and Regina at the top of the list – the first cut will not be the deepest. We are entering a clutch of years in which the two at-risk groups will wish they were elsewhere. Newbies will be equity-crushed. Boomers will shed precious net worth.

Where will the bottom be? Not soon, and there’s no easy formula. A 40% drop in Van would be enough to start shopping, but with 19,010 listings as of Friday, there is a deep chasm looming before us.

So, Chad, rent, invest and learn a lesson from your bonds.

Mature.

Content note: There seems to be an appetite for some of my pathetic observations on various regional centres. So, let’s do it. I’ll devote one post weekly to looking at local real estate markets in enough detail to irritate everyone living there. In advance, I would welcome your comments on the first victim: Winnipeg. — Garth

252 comments ↓

#1 Not on the boat. on 06.08.12 at 9:48 pm

Have a great weekend. Gonna get some rest for the impending RE fireworks.

#2 John on 06.08.12 at 9:50 pm

You’re right garth…the air must thinner up there. That was quite the turnaround in assets…legally I hope. I hope this is the summer of the flash in the pan as we just got out. Closing soon and all the paperwork is done. Renting a beautiful place a block away. A little more money but cash in the bank. Loving the freedom. I don’t know if I will ever own a house in town again. Cottage properties? Already own fully…do you see brightness in their futures?

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.08.12 at 9:53 pm

Here’s a quote from Chad’s future babe:

“shhhhh – you had me at ‘government job'”

Apparently government employees that manage to hang on to their jobs until age 60+ all get millions of guaranteed retirement dollars:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/a-financial-plan-to-enjoy-life-more/article4242694/

#4 Mike P on 06.08.12 at 9:53 pm

Hi Garth, I’ve been enjoying your blog for the last half year or so…very enjoyable! This post isn’t particularly in response to today’s posting, hope that’s ok…

Came across an amusing article/advertisement in Toronto’s Metro Newspaper (the free one on the subway; June 7, pg. 48) about single women buying up condos. I tried to find it online without success, however an extremely similar version exists here (direct link to a pdf file):

http://www.intercityrealty.com/images/stories/articlePDFs/TorontoSun-11March2011.pdf

There are some funny comments about how women shop for condos (presented as obvious truths I guess), but my favourite part, not included in the link, is the following barb for your eviscerating pleasure:
“The Palm Condminium Residences by Castle Royale is conveniently located on Yonge Street right by the Yonge and Finch subway station. It is a resort style condo centrally located with many attractive suite features and building amenities making it very appealing to single women. You can move in this year with 5% down and live 12 months for free. Imagine no mortgage, maintenance or property tax payments for one full year.”

…and then even better, the very next paragraph:

“If you are still sitting on the fence, jump in now with both feet. The interest rates are low, making this an ideal time for single women to purchase a home. Getting into the condo market is a sound investment.”

….Whhaaaaaaaa?! really?! I love these generic and quick statements of apparently obvious fact.

So, my questions…what is up with the 12 months for free comment? I haven’t heard of that one before and assume there must be a catch of some sort. And, not like I expect an answer to this one, but what is up with these ads? I mean, I know they are ads, but …do they have to sound like ads and piss me off so much?:) Maybe they are meant to be over the top for humour…thanks,
-mike from Toronto

#5 jrochest on 06.08.12 at 9:56 pm

Prince. The guy’s a prince.

It’s a good thing he has money and not RE — he’ll be able to pay hookers.

#6 Tim on 06.08.12 at 9:57 pm

the only asset class more dangerous than real estate now are bonds. Interest rates can only increase. If you have to buy bonds, stay short.

#7 gmc on 06.08.12 at 9:58 pm

Ya baby, it’s been a while waiting for the market to smarten up, I started this process in 2007, sold the house, lost the wife…… and got a new girl in Thailand, not a bad trade, 18 years younger, awesome cook, even though I cannot own it my Thai babe can $35,000 for a new home, ya baby
gmc

#8 gmc on 06.08.12 at 10:06 pm

oh ya by the way, I got into all of what Garth was advising, F____ awesome I can’t believe where I am, freedom …. at 50.
the other day
3 hrs Thai oil massage 380 baht
repair two tooth and complete cleaning 1000 baht
new glasses 500 baht
and no taxes or rent hee haa
god love me and Garth you are the man
gmc
oh by the way 1000 baht = $30 CDN

#9 Mark W on 06.08.12 at 10:09 pm

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/condo-craze-158045685.html

Yea, downtown Winnipeg, now that’s a place you really want to live.
Just remember the following:
(1) Never go outside after dark.
(2) Never walk down the street alone, especially if you are a woman.
(3) Carry “muggers money” $50 should be enough.
(4) Always be one touch tone away from a 911 call button.

Quote:
“The pricing might seem aggressive, but for just about anywhere else in the entire world, these are incredibly good prices,” said Thiessen, a former Winnipegger who cut his teeth in the real estate business, as he said, by “buying crappy apartments and making them less crappy.”

Good prices compared to other places in the world … where … like Paris or London … or Toronto or Vancouver??

#10 TurnerNation on 06.08.12 at 10:09 pm

He. Smoked him out? :-)

#197TurnerNation on 06.07.12 at 6:35 pm
How about an update from frugal Chad in Vancouver?

#11 patsan on 06.08.12 at 10:21 pm

Chad, buddy, it will be times when real estate talk is considered tantamount to blasphemy, when everyone will be giving you that moronic look every time you ask whether it’s time to buy (don’t ask realtors though, good time is engraved on their marbles). That would be real time to buy, though it could take long five or so years. Meanwhile, you could rent a much nicer condo (or a house) to impress whoever you call chicks. Maybe you you will be so accustomed to having no headache over properties and to having serious investments that you would not even be thinking of real estate until you can buy for cash and that will be less than 30% of your net worth.

#12 Van grrl on 06.08.12 at 10:32 pm

He needs to watch/listen to this:
Hell, everyone should.

“You’re not special”
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/high-school-graduation-speaker-tells-students-not-special-145709954.html

#13 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.08.12 at 10:34 pm

Ok, so how does the future boomer sell off affect localized areas where they retire to? They may be selling off but in the cities where the grey go they are buying. I’m looking at a city with 23% senior citizens now, and that will only increase.

#14 2or3orsometimes7 on 06.08.12 at 10:39 pm

Please consider doing a post on Ottawa – am set to move there next year and don’t know much about the market. From MLS, it seems a lot more affordable than TO.

#15 YukonRanger on 06.08.12 at 10:42 pm

Hey Garth, if your going to be doing a weekly article on local Real Estate markets can I make a request?

I would ask that you look at Whitehorse… a housing market that rivals Vancouver in ridiculous housing values.

#16 Not 1st on 06.08.12 at 10:43 pm

Good Move Chad, going from Calgary where RE is still within the realm of affordability to Vancouver where its insanity squared and changing “babes” in the process.

You will be divorced and broke in 5 years…guaranteed.

#17 Canadian Watchdog on 06.08.12 at 10:46 pm

Meanwhile, while nobody is looking, TREB removed 311 sales (highest ever) from last month’s data. http://postimage.org/image/8ogayw2ev/

Nothing but pre-con sales boosting the average price.

#18 the captain - hi snides on 06.08.12 at 10:47 pm

will it be long before the the sweet scent of smoked HAM fills our nostrils?

#19 Kenny Banya on 06.08.12 at 10:55 pm

Winnipeg has got to be the least legitimate “it’s different here” situation in the whole country. It has the highest crime rate of any major city, the worst weather and U Manitoba is ranked last among research universities. I would love to see someone try to argue how Winnipeg is so exceptional and will defy all reasonable trends because it’s so unique and desirable…

#20 jshum on 06.08.12 at 10:56 pm

I’m mad as hell about the house prices in winnipeg. Know is should drop but can’t see the day coming. In early march saw some all weekend open houses instead of the 2 hour catle all for the first time in long time. No open house signs now. Some com free That’s my comment on winnipeg.

#21 Snowboid on 06.08.12 at 11:04 pm

I think Chad made a wise decision.

I knew Vancouver was in rough shape, but didn’t realize how bad until the post on the previous blog entry at #218 patiently waiting on 06.08.12 at 10:12 pm.

His links to MLS asking price reductions clearly show the pricing in Vancouver has gone beyond insane, right into the middle of the Twilight Zone.

#22 Smoking Man on 06.08.12 at 11:05 pm

Chad. Hookers new one every day cheaper than a wife
Sorry john g. Of the wagon I read my post from last week they suck. My trades suck my logic and into-wish-in out the window I can’t do it

Sober is good drunk is bad. Is just an opinion does not work for me. When I over think I fk up.

I lose my connection to the universal concioness consolidater

Commonly know as the force

As far as gta gartho pal can’t wait for your post so I can crush it

#23 bobbyToms on 06.08.12 at 11:06 pm

Garth, please please please do a post on London, I do believe its Canada’s tenth largest city btw.

Here’s the deal, recently married and she really wants the house. Although the market is much less than the GTA, its still rediculous!

I live by your blog, read it daily and need some advice for this city.

Ps. Keep up the good work. Cheers!

#24 XKR on 06.08.12 at 11:16 pm

Hey Chad. Enjoy the portfolio, it becomes addictive after a while. Makes you think twice before parting with the money.

#25 Mark W on 06.08.12 at 11:22 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11410572&PidKey=-1541618462

This place has been sitting NOT-SOLD for a few years, if my memory is correct.
$2,450,000 … seems to me they were asking about a million more at one point.
Then let’s not forget the $36,000+ you will have to pay in the City of Winnipeg in PROPERTY TAX.
Then add up the cost of heating, maintenance, maid services, gardening and snow clearance.
But at $3000.00 a month for property taxes alone you could RENT a really nice upscale house in Winnipeg.
Maybe not this extreme, but maybe within a half a mile.
The two selling features here are listed as:
(1) Close to the airport. Hint: everything in Winnipeg is close to the airport.
(2) Close to downtown. Hint: crime central. Portage Place Mall has security guards who wear bullet proof vests. In Winnipeg the further you are from downtown the better!
And the place is right on the river, which tends to FLOOD every once in a while – “flood of the century” about every twenty years.
So unless you are Downton Abbey rich, don’t bother!

#26 Foggy on 06.08.12 at 11:23 pm

Seems Vancouver is packed with “Chads”. They have the cleancut, short hair metrosexual look. Full of fake confidence that comes out as stupidity. Occasionally you’ll see them on Dragon’s Den pitching some inane idea which will “take it to the next level”. See what the BC mindset and education system produces?
I think Chad should buy now, marry that hot girl he met named Tiffany and get married. I give it 3 years….

#27 White Rock Mom on 06.08.12 at 11:23 pm

Chad, Chad, Chad if you want babes go rent in Kits. If you want a home move south. Don’t get established in Vancouver you will regret it. I do! If my husband wasn’t tied to Vancouver with his business we would be out of here. We have owned here before our friendly neighbours moved away. We moved to another suburb. 9 out of 36 houses on our street sold in two years. I guess what I am saying is look at Vancouver as a stepping stone. There is no community here plus RE is on sale in the US. Why HAM came here and destroyed affordability is beyond me when they could go south and buy multiple rental properties for the price one here. I rant but if I was 25 again I would go south.

#28 Debtfree on 06.08.12 at 11:28 pm

@20 Jshum . I think I met you in the peg . I spent 2.5 years there and I had a really hard time understanding people there . Some saying ” sure it’s minus 40 with a windchill of minus 80 but it’s a dry cold ” or its brisk ” and the wood ticks are gone in a month or so . Or sure there’s lots of Mosquitos but you just have to dress for them . Or hell the water came up , your on a flood plain it’ll go down again. My best impression of Winnipeg was viewing it through my rear view mirror . If I never see it again it will be to soon. The only thing I miss is a smoked goldeye and the pretty girls on broadway having lunch in the summer time . Some of the prettiest girls in the world. And the wife misses blue boy French vanilla ice cream . Winnipeg has one less pretty girl thanks to me. Thanks Winnipeg .

#29 Marco on 06.08.12 at 11:31 pm

Hello Garth,
I’ve been reading your blog for only a couple months now thanks to a colleague. Keep up the great stuff! However,
This Brony more than tripled his net worth in one year. Is this bullcrap or am I totally missing some secret investor information?
Thanks.

#30 Snowboid on 06.08.12 at 11:32 pm

#13 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.08.12 at 10:34 pm…

If I recall you are looking in the north Okanagan – was it Vernon?

I don’t think a large influx of seniors is going to help re-inflate the RE balloon, most are looking at downsizing into less-expensive properties.

If they are anything like the ones we know (including ourselves) there is a certain notoriety around penny-pinching. Even mini-McMansions are out of the question.

I think Kelowna will be the hardest hit in the Okanagan, especially condos – and this will drag down the other Okanagan cities and towns. In any case, prices will continue down for at least a couple of years (or longer).

Can’t speak for other seniors, but if/when we buy the prices need to be about 30% lower than now – in a well-built condo (if we can find one) close to medical and other services.

A few health episodes back on Vancouver Island were enlightening – the sheer number of fellow patients that were from up island areas, not Victoria, proved to me that living close to a large hospital is a major advantage as your age catches up to you.

#31 50% correction predictor on 06.08.12 at 11:34 pm

#17 Canadian Watchdog on 06.08.12 at 10:46 pm

Meanwhile, while nobody is looking, TREB removed 311 sales (highest ever) from last month’s data. http://postimage.org/image/8ogayw2ev/

Nothing but pre-con sales boosting the average price.
__________________________________

Awesome!!! You’re the man.

#32 Theworstone on 06.08.12 at 11:36 pm

What about if we start with the right name: Win-a-pig!

As a matter of fact I shouldn’t be commenting. Never occurred to me to visit that place. I have problem differentiating between Sak-a-toon, Man-in-Toba, and all those attractive hoods around the vast prairies. Whenever we have a dime left, we head to Palm Springs or Hawaii. Yeah, yeah, you will said that money should go into the investment portfolio, but we work so hard and deserve the occasional break from the rain. Ging back, if I never want to visit the prairies adnd its towns, don’t imagine less living there. So, real estate should be a dozen for a dime. If it isn’t, that another sign of the insanity we are living in. Not doubt, trouble is heading our way….

#33 Snowboid on 06.08.12 at 11:37 pm

#22 Smoking Man on 06.08.12 at 11:05 pm…

Sorry to hear you are off the wagon…

BTW, your posts were much better sober IMHO.

#34 SpaceMonkey on 06.08.12 at 11:45 pm

He turned 85k into 235k in one year in this market?!

I don’t buy it. If it’s true, why aren’t you offering him a job Garth?

#35 Mark W on 06.08.12 at 11:49 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12010487&PidKey=1593505444

Elmwood, Winnipeg.

“Great central location, close to public transportation, schools, parks, and downtown.”
True … ie: inner city neighborhood = crime.

“nestled on a quiet street.”
True also … because behind your back yard is Elmwood Cemetery.
You can soak in your hottub and look at the gravestones … one of those old gothic style graveyards.

Note: probably would not be of interest to Asian buyers.

Another selling feature … dead end street.

In Winnipeg this place will sell within days .. !!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY9BtROpNQ4

It’s a Peg thing … you would not understand.

#36 Not 1st on 06.08.12 at 11:56 pm

Garth, its high time you did an in depth look at sask, because its different here. We have…umm, wait a second, what do we have?

#37 NAM not HAM on 06.08.12 at 11:56 pm

The 12% drop in 3 month is not a reliable stat. If you compare to Jan, it’s more like a 4% drop since Jan. if you compare to last May, it’s a more reliable stat. So 12% YoY. Still not good. But saying prices are gown 12% in 3 months is not a reliable stat. So if we continue at 1% decrease for the rest of the year, I’ll believe we are fully in a correction phase. It’s still too early to see how bad this is going to be.

#38 Kegpeg on 06.08.12 at 11:59 pm

Winnipeg/Manitoba is still in heavy stimulus mode and it gets more intense each year. Billion+ in Xfer payments, Running Billion+ deficits and is going hard with Public Private Partnerships that could easily be valued in the Billions this year. Construction is the only real industry they got. P3’s are being praised by their govenrment as the savior to finance all projects going forward. They haven’t seen this level of infrastruture construction projects ever. Meanwhile they are mulling a PST increase, have recently upped the gas taxes and are no where near running a balanced budget.

Oh and one of their newest developements “South Point” (with homes starting around $400,000 and easily pushing beyond the million mark) is right beside the cities Garbage dump so you get to breath in that nice prairie smell when there is a south wind.

#39 Zerodown on 06.09.12 at 12:03 am

He’s got a point about the pants suit.

#40 wwwStratege on 06.09.12 at 12:04 am

Garth, it would be awesome if you would take a look at the “wanna have an NHL team”, you know, Quebec City. Prices are high, as anywhere in Canada, but for a small city with a very low unemployment rate I would hear from you about what’s coming in our real estate market.

#41 dd on 06.09.12 at 12:17 am

Like I said, gold is moving into the system not away from it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/a-golden-idea-to-save-or-doom-the-euro/article4243556/

#42 Dmitri on 06.09.12 at 12:26 am

Chad, follow the contrarian indicator – buy when everyone says “it is the worst investment”. I.e. when the is “blood on the streets”.

#43 99% on 06.09.12 at 12:32 am

Richmond BC, the epicenter of HAM is at the very brink of a huge crash. This is where the market went sky high really fast, and will be where it will drop like lead in the next 3 months. Listings are piling up and no buyers in sight. Some smart sellers are reducing their prices drastically and quickly …and still no takers. Somethings gotta give.

#44 Jonno on 06.09.12 at 12:34 am

Chad don,t give up on Vancouver be yourself , date , and don,t talk about your nest egg at your young age. Meet a girl who likes you despite your savings and you will be happy and know that you have found the right woman they still exist, but they will probably be from out of town!

#45 betamax on 06.09.12 at 12:35 am

#13 — current seniors have savings, boomers soon to become seniors don’t. That’s a paradigm-changing difference.

#46 patiently waiting on 06.09.12 at 12:43 am

I posted this on the last blog entry, but since it was posted at the tail end I thought I would re-post it for Chad et al . . .
——————————————
To all those that feel like they are tempted to catch that falling knife and jump into the Vancouver market I did a quick search on active listings of single family homes with recent price reductions in Vancouver. In just 5 minutes I came up with 142 homes (this was not an exhaustive search as 5 minutes was all I had), and this does not include homes that have been terminated or left to expire so that they can be re-listed at lower prices to hide the price reductions – note that this a common practice and the numbers are quite likely substantially higher but would take a fair bit of time to go compile accurately . Here is what I did find . . . if you are patient you will win this one . . . :-)

This link shows the original price and the amount of the price reductions . . .

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1758429743&s=BRC&t=BRC

Also here is the BNN interview with David Lepoideven, (National Bank) telling all that yes there is Canadian housing bubble on BNN no less. . . . wow who would have thought LOL . . .

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip695408

#47 FTP - First Time Poster on 06.09.12 at 12:50 am

I dunno why you’re asking bout Winnipeg – the Amish dont have the internet.

#48 patiently waiting on 06.09.12 at 12:51 am

I have been spending a fair bit of time in Kelowna lately and can tell you first hand as well that the Kelowna market is very dead compared to it’s hay day. There are a large number of foreclosures, and many more that are hanging on by their finger nails. I looked at some higher end homes (say 1.5 to 2.0 million range) to see what was selling and of the ones that sold, many have sold for $150,000 to say $350,000 (or more) below their original asking prices.

#49 Sargon on 06.09.12 at 12:52 am

Winnipeg got whipped into the same frothy RE cappuccino as every other city in Canada.

My first whiff of sulphurous housing bubble odour was when I saw a Wolseley house sell and get re-listed about a year later for 80K more, sans any improvements.

You know the one. Canora Street (100 block), next to the rooming house, not too far from Vimy Park.

#50 Davey Boy on 06.09.12 at 1:00 am

Poor Chad, you are young and foolish.

Read Smoking Man’s post #22. Read it several times if you have to (the first line). One day you’ll look back and realize it’s probably the best advice you NEVER took.

#51 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.09.12 at 1:10 am


“Rent. If she leaves you, be cool. It wasn’t love. And, yes, she split.” — Murceee! A man (of all things) with an equal-to-greater supply of brains! Praise be to Murgatroyd! There IS hope for mankind!

Chad should bulk up on liquid investments (brix and mortar don’t qualify), and fuggedaboud buying anything solid for a decade or so. He has freedom that many don’t, so enjoy it. Also — For Chad (and others who might be interested).

Garth — For you and those with facial hair.
*
Straits of Hormuz FF This is what the USS Enterprise (to be mothballed) was sent on one last expedition for — to be attacked and possibly sunk to justify the US – Israel attack on Iran. Link in. This would go with the IAEA, saying there “is no progress” in talks with Iran, and almost to the day (just passed) Israel attacked the USS Liberty in open waters (a declaration of war) in 1967.

Marks & Spencer Banxters? Spain asks for bail; Jump in new car sales; EU’s troubles affect US companies; 4:29 clip Is QE3 a venture into buying risky stocks? Apple Steve Jobs’ legacy lives on and flourishes;
Private Sector under Obomba has done quite well, with jobs and firms being sent overseas, so profits have skyrocketed due to cheap labor (24 charts), but Obomba says economy not doing well, so which is it? And CEOs losing optimism; Stiglitz Is he right or wrong? Unions Yea or nay? Secret Societies pay no taxes; Having Fun How much is spent?

Cdn. Friday links; Narrowing The US trade deficit; Sharp Global Slowdown What else can happen? Funny looking aliens? Greek Slap; Escaping the Dollar Trap.
*
The Negative Force (Satan, Lucifer or the Devil) eyeing his prey? Luka Magnotta’s double life; Nuke leak around Michigan and Indiana? Indiana was where all the bangs were heard last night; Beer and Milk Vitamin All rush to the beer store now! Renault Twizy New electric car; Heavy Rain ‘Tho today, we did have a brief respite when a ginormous fried egg appeared in the sky, but it was nothing like Europe; Pakistan – Russia cozying up? Benjamin Fulford Disinfo. agent; This would explain why; Africa Becoming a financial resource for global governance; Still Watching Harper rip this country to shreds, ‘tho Rae and Mulcair wouldn’t be any better; China China ain’t stupid — the fix is in, and US – Philippines US reopening bases. Wonder what for? Unsubscribing and saying good riddance; Geography Why Ukraine is not ‘The Ukraine’; Perfect Porsche? 6:23 clip NATO forces psyops in Tampa; Monsanto Use vinegar, not Roundup for weeds; A ‘Quake A Day helps you rest, work and play or shake! Dr. Oz caves to big pharma.

#52 Saskatoon Housing Bubble on 06.09.12 at 1:12 am

Garth,
Here is the average annual house price for Winnipeg and Canada from 1990 to 2011.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XHgGhGXthNo/T9LVXDmPteI/AAAAAAAADpM/WEIgHgzoBGU/s1600/Average+Annual+House+Price+1990+-2011.jpg

Here is the average house price for Winnipeg for select years

1981 $52,656
1991 $81,892
2001 $94,214
2011 $241,148

#53 patiently waiting on 06.09.12 at 1:13 am

Here is one for White Rock Mom – 129 active single family home listings in White Rock with price reductions are shown in the link below, which has the original price and the reduced price. Again this is not all of the price reduced listings, as there are always many more that have been terminated and renewed at a lower price to hide the reduction as it takes a little more effort to find this info. Let me know if you have a specific address in mind and I will check out the listing history . . .
cheers :-)

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=795820050&s=BRC&t=BRC

#54 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 1:14 am

I can’t wait to see the special story on Regina. I plan to move there in a year.

#55 2centsCdn on 06.09.12 at 1:14 am

Chad ……… rent a place for two to three years (save save save) ….. learn the area you want to live in like the back of your hand as things come down (through mls.ca or an honest RE agent) so you recognize a screaming deal when it shows up and fight off pushy (and starving) real estate agents. The pendulum swings both ways with real estate (and investments in general) ……. emotional has swung prices too high as hornyness and cockiness sky rocketed, but they will also swing too low as things go sour …… learn what “too low” is and recognize the bottom (Garth will help) …. then buy. You are 100% in the drivers seat. You WILL be rewarded. Try not to smile too much.

#56 Saskatoon Housing Bubble on 06.09.12 at 1:20 am

Percent of the Winnipeg Labor Force Employed in Construction From March 1996 – May 2012 (unadjusted for seasonality)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0avP-fmGmg8/T9LcsaceClI/AAAAAAAADpY/h9js3AiT9Lg/s1600/Percent+of+the+Winnipeg+Labor+Force+Employed+in+Construction.jpg

#57 Diana on 06.09.12 at 1:36 am

Looking forward to the Winnipeg disection as I live there, and bought recently.

#58 AL on 06.09.12 at 1:45 am

Could not beleive my ears in the elevator this week. A person from another floor was telling the building guy that she certainly hopes they are finished with her wall. Seems the water from the unit above her caused a disgusting mold build up. This is a new luxury condo in dry Calgary.
Buy one of these, no thanks.

#59 wes coast on 06.09.12 at 1:45 am

*burp* Excuse me.

#60 Just Say No on 06.09.12 at 1:51 am

Winnipeg….in the winter it is too cold so you go to one of the many casinos to stay warm and in summer it is too hot and at night the mosquitoes keep you indoors so you go to one of the casinos and gamble cause there is nothing else to do other than buy houses and with low interest rates and easy credit and long amortization you can not lose so that makes Winnipeg the best place in the world!!!!!! and the people are the cheapest and all they want to do is win. People move there to Win that is why it is call “Win”nipeg.

#61 John on 06.09.12 at 2:07 am

Can you graduate to doing some international housing bubble blurbs? I know people are a little blown back when they see Regina doing weird things. The brain starts to unthaw. The wheels slowly grind. Shavings of frost fall gently away.

“What’s Regina got?”

I am imagining adding the city of Santiago where I live. Maybe Puerto Montt in the South. Wait…look…they’re doing the same thing.

Why? What will happen next?

It’s all so mysterious.

#62 kilby on 06.09.12 at 2:08 am

If Chad talks around women the way he writes about them he will never get the ones he hopes to aspire to. Or any, pretty corny ……………

Have been noticing that in the Vancouver Island market that the price reductions are now coming after about 3 weeks into the listing instead of holding on to the full price for 3 or 4 months.

#63 Soylent Green is People on 06.09.12 at 4:06 am

Mature

Lololololl

Fool should have given her an engagement ring if he loved her

.

#64 B.Anchor on 06.09.12 at 6:15 am

A site covering the Prarie market at a high level, with a strong bent to rational analysis of current situation versus long run averages. The odd aspect about the Praries is that due to recent population and jobs growth, rental market is super strong, and new housing is also very strong. Pricing is, however, insane relative to median incomes. Higher rates and lending tightening will kill the market stone dead, but it make take a few actual rises to do it, and not just the threat of them. http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com. Lots of higher priced Regina properties in the high 400’s (for older houses of 50’s vintage in the South end around Albert Park, Lakeview, etc) are coming back onto MLS with frequent price reductions of circa 20k at a time after a month or so on the market if unsold. Some of the initial asking prices look very cheeky to start with. Bottom end of the market is very high 200’s to 300k in South end for an older starter home in Whitmore with a few reno’s. Brand new near the airport cost mid 500’s for a 3 bedder on a small block. Sellers left holding on into Winter without a sale may take a bigger hit next year.

#65 ZZZMark on 06.09.12 at 6:24 am

It’s over when nobody wants it anymore and from what I read here everybody still wants it.

#66 B.Anchor on 06.09.12 at 6:29 am

A word from the Great One reminding us all on what risk really is. Kindly note where housing sits in the asset class definitions. One for gold bugs as well.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/

#67 John on 06.09.12 at 7:51 am

Patsan wrote:

“Meanwhile, you could rent a much nicer condo (or a house) to impress whoever you call chicks. Maybe you you will be so accustomed to having no headache over properties and to having serious investments that you would not even be thinking of real estate until you can buy for cash and that will be less than 30% of your net worth.”
————

There seems to be two elemental belief systems going on. They’re obvious, but why not spell them out.

1. Real estate in Canada is a market.
2. Cash is king

Since the above two belief blocks have been so open to subjectivity, I think it would be good to stay on them. Always.

So. Patsan..how did you come up with the idea that real estate in Vancouver is a “market”. Who do you think moves this? How did it get started and where is it going?

Next. You think cash is king as an upgrade? You’re getting off the train there as a final stop? You lost me. And surely that then leads to a delusional paper trail walk. Supposedly leading to net “worth” and retirement?

I mean, to me, these assumptions are evidently false. Maybe you could lay out your argument. I don’t understand where you’re getting your conclusions.

How about a real debate which continues to examine assumptions. That IS the idea isn’t it? Unless you think what’s going on right now is just a joke. That’s an option of course. And it might be your angle….depends on how you defend your ideas.

#68 Hugo on 06.09.12 at 8:00 am

Hi Garth, Have been following your column in the Real Estate News since the 1990’s and now this blog. My wife and I were tempted by a real estate agent to trade-up by selling our home and purchase a new home in Toronto but glad we didn’t do it. We were now instead thinking of buying a property in USA , do you think the US housing market has bottomed? Thanks!

#69 Keeping the Faith on 06.09.12 at 8:39 am

My dad taught me all I need to know about Winnipeg when I was just a kid:
“Always buy a round trip ticket when going there, you’ll thank yourself later”

#70 big T on 06.09.12 at 9:00 am

Chad trippled his assets in about one year, wow!!! and
he still babeless..

#71 Tri-State Pat on 06.09.12 at 9:09 am

Patiently waiting #54.

I went over the mlxchange link you sent. Data does not lie. It is very unfortunate that this type of information is closely guarded by the real estate boards. Here in the States, Zillow.com does a superb job at offering anything you want from a historical perspective on a house’s valuation, what people paid for it years ago or just months ago and a general trend on the zip code; priceless if you want to make an offer. I really wish there was such a website in Canada. It would make real estate less corrupt and toxic…

#72 timbo on 06.09.12 at 9:20 am

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/08/spain-90s-greed-banking-crisis

“This is now a country with a million unsold properties; hundreds of housing developments left unfinished by construction companies and real estate promoters, especially along the Mediterranean coast but also in city centres; 4.7 million people unemployed and an unemployment rate of 24.5% overall, and 50% in the 18–25 age bracket – and that’s without including the student population. The situation of “extreme difficulty” described this week by the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has at its root the flats that the banks accumulated when people started defaulting on their mortgages.”

Property bubble did this? Thank goodness we are different……….

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-germany-s-eu-partners-are-using-blackmail-in-the-euro-crisis-a-837768.html

“For Germany, being part of the European Union has always included an element of blackmail. France has been playing this card from the beginning, but now the Spanish and the Greeks have mastered the game. They’re banking on Berlin losing its nerve. ”

Love to play chicken until someone gets hurt……

#73 furst on 06.09.12 at 9:55 am

Doubt – a poem by furst

Staring out my window, it’s gloomy with rain
A blank look across my face, masks the turmoil and pain
I have a friend who’s life path was similar to my own
Except five years to this day, he purchased a home
Bad idea, I thought, I’m going to keep renting a place
Costs half, no maintenance for same amount of space

Today he can sell his house for twice what he paid
I think to myself, he’s definitely got it made
Why did I rent? How stupid of me
Should’ve bought and paid the CMHC fee

But I saved my earnings and put it aside
For the rainy day, should the markets change tide
Prices are coming down, but still can’t afford
A tiny bungalow or semi, despite my cash hoard

How much longer, will I have to wait?
Maybe home ownership is just not in my fate
I made smart choices and did the right thing
But I’ve got a landlord, my friend has real estate bling

Life is a series of choices, I know
But sometimes my right decision makes me feel low
Doubt creeps in and I no longer feel sure
Owning a house certainly does have its lure

Who knows how this ends, I truly can’t say
I hope my real estate urges can be held at bay

#74 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.09.12 at 10:11 am

Chad appears to be as materialistic as the women he dates….
Not to worry folks, its a Vancouver “thing”……

#75 Shane on 06.09.12 at 10:46 am

Garth, I need Markham on that list

Shane

#76 jess on 06.09.12 at 10:47 am

“I only published 5% of the data on WikiLeaks,” he said. . . . “When the CDs are unsealed it will be a lot more damaging than the original WikiLeaks publication,” said Elmer.”
Full story:

Swiss court’s unsealing of whilsteblower CDs spell more trouble for Julius Bär
08 June 2012
By Salman Shaheen (ITR)

…six years, the HighCourt of Zurich has decided to unseal the three CDs at the heart of the matter. But with the trial being held in public, …

http://www.internationaltaxreview.com/Article/2970608/Search/EXCLUSIVE-Rudolf-Elmer-explains-why-he-blew-the-whistle.html?Keywords=elmer&OrderType=1&Brand=ITRP

#77 JRob on 06.09.12 at 10:50 am

#34 SpaceMonkey on 06.08.12 at 11:45 pm:

“He turned 85k into 235k in one year in this market?!

I don’t buy it. If it’s true, why aren’t you offering him a job Garth?”

If Chad and his (former) girlfriend collectively saved $85k for a down payment not meant to be, then one might assume he alone cashed out of this ‘position’ with <$85k. If he did indeed realize nearly triple his investment in current climate, then I am far more interested in learning the nuances of his holdings than reading about the caliber of babes in North Van (though the observation is apt). I would cynically imagine that inheritance of some sort may well have played into this spectacular growth in net worth. He never explicitly stated the $235k was strictly portfolio-grown.

Ladies, read and consider the prospectus carefully.

Also, FIRST!!! (-time poster)

Rob in North Van

#78 Karie on 06.09.12 at 10:52 am

To the woman in Calgary that posted the grow op link of the house for sale a few days ago – If you’re interested you could investigate with a structural engineer and contractor but it’s risky. If it were me, I’d look to live in an area like Kensington -walk to downtown, coffee shops, grocery store, hairdresser, etc.; has awesome Riley Park for kids. You could have 1 or no cars and that alone would save a bundle. If you think a crash is coming, be patient and wait.

@Hugo. We were thinking of this too. I have a realtor in Arizona and a resort town in New York. I am not sure I could go through with buying a second property using the HELOC. I am now thinking of cashing in our investments to pay off our mortgage at renewal next year and buy the investments back, writing off the interest. I’m not sure if that’s a complicated process but thinking about it!

Garth, if you are doing the Friday real estate focus on specific areas- I would be interested in how real estate is doing in the GTA west suburbs – Brampton, Orangeville, Milton, Oakville, Burlington, etc.

#79 agioblue on 06.09.12 at 10:52 am

One day you wake up and realize you’re old and the entire internets is full of millionaires and those that will be before they’re 35, if even that long. It’s happened to me, mainly due to this insidious blog.
85k to 235k in a “year or so” The dangling epeener Chad is so full of bullshit I can smell the stench from his email. He’ll fit right in here.

#80 Karie on 06.09.12 at 10:55 am

@75 Furst – Your best yet! Kinda touched my heart!

#81 Johnny D on 06.09.12 at 10:58 am

Yesterday
=====================================
#181 Westernman on 06.08.12 at 3:38 pm

@Johnny D @ # 102,
You are kidding, right? Regina? -40 and three feet of snow blowing at 40 mph for 6 months of the year, crime ridden dump of a mere 168,000 smack dab in the middle of godforsaken Sask.???
I have news for you, when the RE collapse REALLY starts to gather momentum in this country ( and it most surely will ) Regina will plummet like a dead seagull, and it will be GRIM…
A gulag in Siberia will look better than Regina then…

Today
=====================================
#55 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 1:14 am

I can’t wait to see the special story on Regina. I plan to move there in a year.

=====================================

Wires crossed????

#82 This is Wonderland on 06.09.12 at 11:07 am

Garth, please can you add land prices to your list, preferably (Calydon, Erin, King City, New Tecumseth, and Bradford). Is it foolish to look at this time, do you see a large correction in these areas, am I nuts to even consider building a house or should I wait for a reduction in price on country homes?
I am looking for 10 acre’s this is not a short term investment, I hope to live in it until they carry me out feet first.
Thanks Garth.

#83 Herb on 06.09.12 at 11:10 am

#75 Furst,

bootiful, Furst, bootiful!

#84 Marshy on 06.09.12 at 11:12 am

#55 [email protected]

There goes the neighborhood … don’t forget to wear a watermelon.

#85 Realtors in a Panic! Now they attack Garth on 06.09.12 at 11:14 am

Canadian Watchdog on 06.08.12 at 10:46 pm Meanwhile, while nobody is looking, TREB removed 311 sales (highest ever) from last month’s data. http://postimage.org/image/8ogayw2ev/

Nothing but pre-con sales boosting the average price.
——————————————————————–

Like my mortgage broker/realtor contacts have been saying that sale are faling through as people either back out or can not qualify in this housing bubble. Two house in the annex where sold but a few days later the sold signs was gone and then a week after that the sellers took the houses off the market in shame and will relist in a month with hopes stupid buyers won’t see the fact no one wants to buy.

#86 Toronto Condo's set to crash hard! on 06.09.12 at 11:25 am

On the evening news last night the discussion was about poor workmanship of Toronto “new” condos. Also they said Condos have started to fall apart(think falling glass,etc.) after a year or two which will lead to higher maintenance fees. More condos being built in Toronto then anywhere in NA and maybe even the world. Prices of condos will crash 50-70% when all is said and done. Oh ya they said to buy the older well built condo of 15-20 years old. You really have to be stupid to buy an overvalued poorly built “new” Toronto condo. Buying a Toronto condo is the best way to lose 50-70%.

#87 Musical Jimmy on 06.09.12 at 11:27 am

Hola from Winnipeg. Looking forward to the teardown of our RE market.
There’s a building down the road from my apartment that converted to condos shortly after I moved to where I live now – three-storey walk-up, no balconies, right on the Trans Canada Highway, close to schools and bus routes and so on. Nearly four years later, and there are not only still condos for sale – but if you buy this month, you get a free TV! I’ve watched more and more of the starburst-style signs go up – “Only two 2-bedrooms left!” “Now’s the time to buy!” and so on.
Winnipeg has a sub-1% rental vacancy rate, so why are apartment buildings converting to condos, especially given that buildings like that one exist? One would think that the owners would have made far more money these past four years on rent (averaging maybe $750/month on a one-bedroom box, given the low vacancy rate) than they do by having the building sit half-vacant since 2009!

Oh, and the kicker to the story – there’s a “Condo For Sale” sign outside the building with a completely different realtor and RE company on it. Someone who bought in some time ago wants out, methinks. I wonder why…

#88 Silver on 06.09.12 at 11:29 am

Prices are up due to the Counterfiting of Equity Document Values by the Assessment Boards
…altering Actual Value of the Fee Simple Property Value In order to bypass the mill rate vote… and artificially raising the appearance of value for property tax’s on property’s that did not sell.

They are stealing and Forging access to Equity Documents on Property that has not sold… artificially (fraudulently) raising the tax’s…
….claiming they have “Usufructuary Status” on your “Fee Simple Equity Documents”.

They are Claiming Taxable income based on someone else’s sales value. Tax on an others profit

you are being taxed to pay for someone else’s profit.

kinda like paying 40% of a film worker wages through a 40% tax refund on the $25+ dollar an hour labor the film producers get.

They are committing “Equity Fraud”.

Silver

#89 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 11:44 am

#22 Smoking Man on 06.08.12 at 11:05 pm

“Sorry john g. Of the wagon I read my post from last week they suck. My trades suck my logic and into-wish-in out the window I can’t do it

Sober is good drunk is bad. Is just an opinion does not work for me. When I over think I fk up.”

First, thanks for the update — and keep them coming.
Second, there is absolutely NO need to apologize to me. You were sober for several days, which is an accomplishment.
Third, remember what I said about falling into the trap of believing that you somehow need alcohol? You think that it makes you a better trader, better writer, connected to universal consciousness, and perhaps that is true now (although others may beg to differ, eg. Snowboid #33); however, there are many, many stories of people who believed the same thing and continued on that path, and found out that at some point those gifts were lost and that no amount of use could recapture them (aka “chasing the dragon”).
Anyway, I’m here for support, not to lecture. I look forward to your future posts — drunk or sober.

Cheer,

John

#90 Steven Rowlandson on 06.09.12 at 11:47 am

Chad would be best advised to maintain his investment strategy at least untill after real estate collapses and then use income from his investments to buy the starter home. I would think that after governments and mortgags have gone titters there will be high interest rates to discourage foolish borrowing and to compensate for risk. It ought to be good for savers.

#91 Jim on 06.09.12 at 11:48 am

Hmm, 85 to 235k is quite a return, given that not much these days is offering big gains. Perhaps he invested in Graphite back in fall of 2011. Whatever the case, he should be writing investment books.

Chad’s personality seems a little ill matched for the public service. I get more of a stockbroker or trader feel from his posts. The public service may offer job stability, but the slow pace and middle aged coworkers are not exactly harmonious with a risk taking personality.

But good on you for not buying, Chad. I have been trying to convince my parents to sell their oversized richmond home for ages. I warned them last summer that if they didn’t sell, they were likely to get caught in a downturn. They didn’t listen, and listed too late. 2 people over to see the property in one month, and more houses coming on the market.

#92 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 11:51 am

#22 Smoking Man on 06.08.12 at 11:05 pm

“Chad. Hookers new one every day cheaper than a wife.”

#51 Davey Boy on 06.09.12 at 1:00 am

“Poor Chad, you are young and foolish.

Read Smoking Man’s post #22. Read it several times if you have to (the first line). One day you’ll look back and realize it’s probably the best advice you NEVER took.”

Well I suppose it would be good advice if all you wanted a woman for was sex. But if, deep down, Chad also wants an emotional connection, a life partner (I know it’s a stretch, but bear with me), then all that money spent on hookers would be, if nothing else, a very bad investment.

Cheers,

John

#93 B on 06.09.12 at 11:51 am

Rcmp just closed a big forensic lab in winter-peg! You never really know which straw will break the camels back…

#94 Hoof - Hearted on 06.09.12 at 11:57 am

To: Dangling Chad..

Vancouver North Shore women…..mating habits.

” Go for the fat, then go for the lean”.

…aka marry some average looking guy with good income. Connect at least twice. Then divorce them and bleed them dry with alimony and child support.

The go for the “lean”…some young strapping “6 pack ab” buck ..last name probably Turner

#95 Tony on 06.09.12 at 11:59 am

Re: #6 Tim on 06.08.12 at 9:57 pm

Bonds are safe stocks are not. People who chase something that isn’t there end up like the people P.T. Barnum once wrote about. Bonds should produce good gains over the next 5 years whereas stocks should be decimated over the next 5 years. The world is in a deflationary collapse and until free market forces take hold bonds will rally and stocks will fall.

You just made that up, right? — Garth

#96 White Rock Mom on 06.09.12 at 12:25 pm

Thank you Patiently Waiting for the information. That was an education. I think 10 – 15 percent of these listings are RE agent owned. I also recognize a number of homes that were purchased by HAM last year and are listed 20 – 30 percent higher than they paid last year! Buying and selling million dollar homes like stock really bothers me. Noted that there are a number of $100,000 price drops I still think they are at least 30 percent overvalued. The 1 – 5 percent price drops make me laugh. No deals here.
I like the Elgin area and West Vancouver. I think West Van will be less volatile than South Surrey and the commute to downtown half the time.
How do we get the more price reductions? Do we start offering stink bids at half of the listed price? Are there any real buyers agents? What are your thoughts?

#97 Mark W on 06.09.12 at 12:43 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/features/homicides/

So you want to buy a condo or a house in or near downtown Winnipeg.

The link above is Winnipeg’s murder map.

You might notice a trend.

Almost every murder there happens in downtown or the North End.

You can easily buy one of these overpriced condos in one of Winnipeg’s 10/10 neighborhoods.

That means within a ten minute walk radius of your place there have been ten murders within the last few years.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11897227&PidKey=-1728410

Here is a condo in just such a neighborhood and the cost is only $1,550,000.

A city with almost ZERO demographic growth since 1975.

Is there a shortage of land in Winnipeg?

Is there a shortage of land in Manitoba?

I believe that the answer to that would be … NO!

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11981769&PidKey=1883422199

Or you could get in your car and drive for ten minutes and be out of the core and buy this place (still overpriced) for a fraction of the cost of $281,000.

You might notice on the Winnipeg murder map that zero murders happen in this neighborhood.

Does this make sense to you?

It makes no sense to me.

#98 Snowboid on 06.09.12 at 12:46 pm

#61 Timing is Everything on 06.09.12 at 1:48 am …

That’s good news, hopefully they will be able to staff them properly – which seems to a big problem with new or expanded hospitals in other smaller centres.

#99 I'll Have Another on 06.09.12 at 12:56 pm

Please put Lethbridge on the list of burgs to be reviewed.

#100 Coraline on 06.09.12 at 1:05 pm

Canadian Watchdog: I love your charts, but I have to say that I find some of them extremely difficult to interpret. You need to add a sentence or two explaining what’s going on.

#101 Bryan Berndt on 06.09.12 at 1:06 pm

Garth, 19k listings on REBGV?

Or 1.9k?

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca/Dexterselectmarketstats.ubr

Your link is to West Van only. — Garth

#102 a prairie dawg on 06.09.12 at 1:15 pm

#46 betamax

#13 — current seniors have savings, boomers soon to become seniors don’t. That’s a paradigm-changing difference.

– — –

A tail end boomer here:

How about an enigma wrapped in a paradigm?

We’re not all going to be eating Cat Chow in our old age. Some of us are well on our way to being secure in retirement.

Credit that with depression era parents and the lessons they taught us. Also by establishing good credit early in life, and getting any financial mistakes out of the way long before they were life altering.

Self control helps too. My house is my shelter. I didn’t buy it for appreciating asset purposes or for impressing anyone. And I’ve never really counted it in my net worth goals.

No Cat Chow here. Maybe Fancy Feast instead…

#103 lilyflor on 06.09.12 at 1:19 pm

I would like to know how the 2nd largest Canadian city is doing. It almost impossible to find any information about Montreal or the GMA. Much appreciated.

#104 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 1:20 pm

Johnny D @ # 83,
” I plan to move there in a year.”
And you’ll be planning to move out of there in the next…
You have my deepest sympathies …

#105 DondWest on 06.09.12 at 1:24 pm

Chad is an epitome to MAP (most arrogant place). Vancouver is without a doubt the most arrogant and snobbish place on Earth.

It’s a place where everyone is a delusional winner. Live in your mother’s basement? You’re great, you’re doing it Vancouver style. Live in a million dollar shanty house? Great, you’re rich, this is Vancouver! Vancouver is the city where everyone hands you out a participation prize for simply living in Vancouver.

Vancouver is also the distinct place in Canada that’s somehow immune to the elements of weather. It can be quite a bizarre experience when a Vancouverite goes east and visits Halifax. Vancouverites are shocked and awed that Haligonian weather is as good as Vancouver’s, but without the rain, for the spring, summer and fall. Often the reactions are the following, “wow, I’m glad I visited Halifax when the weather is better than Vancouver’s, what’s the odds?” All you can do is just nod your head. Don’t bother reasoning with a Vancouverite; life is too short. . .

In Vancouver, people such as Chad who made perhaps 30% on the stock market the past year have suddenly made 300%.

People have made the mistake of accusing Chad of lying. What people fail to understand is Chad is speaking “Vancouverin.” It’s quite a mysterious language with a mixture of hillbilly Mandarin and hillbilly English, filled with euphemisms, hysteria, and metaphoric exaggerations.

Translating the language officially to English can prove to be quite a daunting task. However, here is my attempt:

Dear Garth,

Hi, it’s Chad again. I’ve taken some of your advice and stopped obsessing over real estate. This upset my girlfriend and she left me, but she wasn’t the woman for me.

I earn an average income, which I consider respectable because many of my friends around my own age are unemployed or working low wages. I’m still young and the job offers a lot of potential for me to be a high income earner one day.

I took some of your advice regarding investing in the market and I’ve made some modest gains. Nothing spectacular, but it’s nice to know I can make a little money on the side rather than slaving myself away for more hours at work.

I’m thinking of moving to a larger rental unit in a more affordable area. I’ve stopped dating for a while because I wanted to focus on myself. Now I’m interested in dating again, but I’m worried that if I tell women I’m a renter they’ll immediately walk away in disgust. Do you have any advice? And I’m interested in tall women (Amazonian variety) too; do you know any in Vancouver North?

Thanks,
Chad

#106 Gunboat Denier on 06.09.12 at 1:51 pm

90 Silver – Deal with it. Accept it. Get over it.

#107 truth hammer on 06.09.12 at 1:55 pm

Chad has a ‘government job’ that has gushed $235K net into his bank account at 29? A back of the napkin calc says that after tax and average expenses Chad is one of those pigs making over $100K….and he must have fallen into the trough right out of UNI to be supporting a $50 p/a savings regime ( if in fact he has saved every disposable nickel and never spent a dime on ‘young things’) So….either Chad is full of crap….makes way more as trough slurper ( and there are many in the civil service taking much more than 100K out of the pile) or Chad is indeed a troll and is fishing for attention. The numbers don’t add up…….even if he was a doctor fresh out of residence he wouldn’t have built $235K net. Nope….more to this story.

I used to sit behind a desk and see the inheritance cases and the liars come in and tell me that they were ‘entrepeneurs’ and that was how they made the money they were wanting me to note. These morons don’t seem to understand that people in the financial industry have access to their entire credit history. We can see when an inheritance spike hits the balance sheet.

As I’ve said…this brings out the worst in some advisors and others…….it makes some of us break open a new tube of lube ….some take pleasure in screwing these dipwits. I have to admit that I encouraged some of the biggest losers to take up day trading…..just to see what would happen….Bwahahahahahahahqahaaaaa you know what happened.

BTW…look at Harper on the world stage…refusing to ship taxpayers dollars to the toilets of europe………finally….a pm that doesn’t bleat every time a euro wacko demands that Canada subject the country to another bout of hardship through some wacko treaty or accord as some parties have done in the past.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/08/matt-gurney-canadas-fiscal-bazooka-wont-save-europe/

3 cheers for the Harper Government.

#108 Brown Cow on 06.09.12 at 1:58 pm

Chad,

You are hitting the wrong market. Those lawyers don’t want people making chum change like you. They want people who makes a million plus a year. Sorry dude.

#109 LGP on 06.09.12 at 1:59 pm

#22Smoking Man on 06.08.12 at 11:05 pm

Hi Smoking Man

Reading your post made me a little sad, for you and for me. Walking around life with that monkey on your back is no picnic. Mine was smoking. I tried a few times to quit though only half-heartedly. It’s been eleven years, 3 months and 18 days but, hey, who keeps track of these things. :>)

I’m going to offer what follows next only as a suggestion. It worked for me but might not work for you if you should ever want to try again. A wise man said to me that if I quit and was tempted, to imagine that I lived to 85. If, at 85 years old, I still wanted a cigarette then I could have it – I could even chain smoke if I wanted to.

As silly as that sounds, it is what has kept me on the straight and narrow. Mind you, after all this time there is still some moment in every single damn day that I want a smoke desperately. So far, in spite of gaining a terrible amount of weight over this, the promise of being able to smoke again in the future is what keeps me sane. But by the time I’m 85 the cursed things will probably cost $10 – EACH!

#110 truth hammer on 06.09.12 at 2:02 pm

BTW….Spain waited for the markets to close to reverse their position on needing a bailout……we knew they did…and now they do……..wait for the sound of a crashing market on Monday……perception rules the roost these days….thats why there are so many political announxcemnts…lots of suasion and misdirection….both Haper and Obamarama made ‘comments’ overnight………and you wwere waiting for the Greek election…..???? The Spanish beat you to it!!

#111 jess on 06.09.12 at 2:14 pm

…”He said that other board members at the savings bank, based in Alicante,, eastern Spain, included a checkout worker and a sociologist. A dance teacher, an artist and a university psychologist were also reportedly on the board.”

Spain’s savings banks’ culture of greed, cronyism and political meddlingThe behaviour of executives at Spain’s savings banks or cajas is now coming under scrutiny as the sector prepares to seek taxpayer bailouts
Share 598
Email Giles Tremlett in Madrid
guardian.co.uk, Friday 8 June 2012 18.13 BST

#112 Jennifer on 06.09.12 at 2:23 pm

OOOOH! Can’t wait for your Kelowna tear down Garth. Listings in my neighborhood one block from the beach Lower Mission Oct 2011 11 listings, Nov – Jan 28 Listings, yesterday 61. This is a 2 block radius. 3 blocks down pre-sales on new condos 249k 2 yrs ago now selling for 159K. Thanks in advance!!

#113 Fat Bastard on 06.09.12 at 2:36 pm

Westernman is not making any sense…

#114 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 2:40 pm

Marshy @ # 86,
Surely you don’t believe that was my post, do you?

#115 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 2:44 pm

John G. Young @ # 91,
Wow! Smoking Man managed to stay sober for “several” days and you are impressed with this Herculean display of will power…
It doesn’t take much to impress you apparently…

#116 Cankerworm on 06.09.12 at 2:49 pm

Winnipeg! Excellent target!

I’m in my late 20’s and have been watching friend after friend take the plunge, regularly bidding 10% or more over asking price. Note that many are single women who make between $30-$40,000. When they ask me what I think of their new digs, I say “well, it looks solid…” (i.e. it’s tiny and outdated, but I don’t see any obvious cracks in the walls).

I have enough for a 20% down-payment, but I’m waiting. I rent a house in a good (i.e. non-stabby) neighbourhood with two friends for about $450/month. If I bought, there is no way it would cost me that little (think taxes, upkeep etc.).

People who are buying now reassure themselves by saying Winnipeg is “just catching up” to different centres. But, they miss the obvious differences between Winnipeg and other centres…

1) As #100 points out, we have NO shortage of land, unlike other major centres. You can drive almost anywhere in 30 minutes. There is land within city limits that can be developed.
2) We don’t have the amenities of other centres. I have heard people say lately that the Winnipeg Jets, our hockey team, will keep the housing market going. I ask, will people REALLY flock/stay here because of a hockey team?? (I’ve never understood hockey fever, so maybe I’m just missing something).
3) Yes, crime in the city is bad. I wouldn’t go outside at night in the neighbourhoods where the houses are sorta, kinda reasonably priced. So, you can pay $150,000 if you want to get mugged walking home from the bus, but…
4) Speaking of busses, our transit sucks. Most cities have much better systems.
5) We have a somewhat steady economy, but it’s certainly not booming. And our government just incurred a $1 billion debt, which means they can only do so much stimulus.

I could say more. I actually like Winnipeg, and plan on staying here. I will eventually buy a house. But, for the moment, I’ll continue to rent and watch my savings grow (maybe I’ll develop the courage to invest it in something other than a GIC – yeah, that’s right, I’m scared of bonds and such…sorry!).

I look forward to your views on this market full of cheap and greedy people!

#117 Brucecounty Girl in Ft. Mac on 06.09.12 at 3:19 pm

Garth, can you please do a post on real estate here in Ft. Mac if you have the time? Getting a little tired of the self entitlement and would love to hear your thoughts. Thanks!

#118 bill on 06.09.12 at 3:25 pm

hey westernman you should try sobriety yourself. bound to be an improvement

#119 Bill Lord on 06.09.12 at 3:26 pm

Sometimes it really makes sense to rent!

Women often want the security they believe comes with owing a home.

Explain that in the Vancouver market, you feel that buying a place will lead to insecurity.

#120 Been there Done that Got the T-Shirt on 06.09.12 at 3:52 pm

Smokin Man
Something my father passed on:
Life by the inch is a cynch
Life by the yard is hard.
Keep the faith

#121 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 4:04 pm

#118 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 2:44 pm

“John G. Young @ # 91,
Wow! Smoking Man managed to stay sober for “several” days and you are impressed with this Herculean display of will power…
It doesn’t take much to impress you apparently…”

If that were the case then I would be impressed by you, because you’re certainly nothing much, troll.

#122 ANONYMOUS on 06.09.12 at 4:09 pm

Here is my prediction: By the end of 2013, Canadian 1-year bonds will be offering NEGATIVE rates to investors, of around -.005%.

Then buy some and reap a capital gain. Or are you all talk? – Garth

#123 Canadian Watchdog on 06.09.12 at 4:13 pm

#103 Coraline

I’m glad you asked. Here’s a quick walk-through. http://postimage.org/image/pbyzc4o01/

The months listed on the left of the graph are TREB’s monthly reports, then listed horizontally (green box), are the newly revised monthly numbers found on the last page of every report. Listed vertically (red box), are the monthly revisions from the initial report to current (top to bottom). Looking at May 12′, you can see how the original sales number was 10,046, but has been revised down to 9,766, that changes the year-over-year percent change from 8% to 11%.

The trickery lies in the average price, which is nothing more then total dollar volume divided by sales. http://postimage.org/image/mzmuk62yp/ For example, April’s report shows an average price of $517,556, however this month TREB removed 222 sales from April, so essentially the extra volume reported in April has just vaporized from the average price, leaving anyone to guess what the real average price was last month. Capeesh?

But who’s looking anyways? All that matters to TREB is that the media pumps the banana stats they provide every month to keep the headline monkeys (or market bulls) convincing everyone how the market is running strong, when it is in fact already starting to crash.

BTW, the only real estate board that doesn’t revise its numbers is REBGV, but come to think of it, maybe reporting the truth is not a good idea after all, because when $42.5bn in real estate transacts annually in a city with $144bn GDP, well…you know the rest, I hope.

#124 Really on 06.09.12 at 4:21 pm

No Garth you are (were) WRONG.

The real estate in Vancouver topped out already and I agree that 40% will be a conservative decline number – particularly in markets like Vancouver.

Easy irresponsible lending, enabling government policy and house horny people have created all of this.

A person would be a fool to buy real estate at this point – particularly in Vancouver.

However lets also admit our MISTAKES.  If chad had bought a SFH in North Vancouver in 2007 when he moved here – and sold it now – he would have a net worth that far exceeds what he has now.  We just went through a monster and rare up real estate cycle. 
I missed the whole thing for a lot of reasons.

But lets not even THINK about suggesting that if someone could have bought a SFH in Vancouver in 2005-7 and didn’t not do it that it was a wise move.  SORRY that is MONSTER WRONG?  

I’m very very frustrated we could not afford to buy in 2005-7 era.  We missed it, badly.

Real estate is going to get crushed in Canada over the next number of years maybe even a decade – but lets not try to pretend that missing one of the largest (artificial but REAL) real estate booms in Canada was not real and benficial.

Houses are not stocks. Get a grip. — Garth

#125 Mr. Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 06.09.12 at 4:23 pm

#75 Furst

Well done Furst. I am worried as your poetic fame grows you may want to actually be paid to do readings at the SASTGFBDCParty…

#126 Karie on 06.09.12 at 4:43 pm

Just watched part of Suze Orman’s Money Class on tv. I don’t think she’s that much different than Garth.

She spoke mainly of American stuff like FICO scores, short sales, non recourse and recourse loans, etc. She did say the Old American Dream is owning a house no matter what even if you can’t afford it. The New American Dream is to rent or if you must buy a house, do so only if you have an 8 month emergency fund, at least 20% down and plan to live there for a number of years. Remember what’s important in life – time with loved ones, etc. She saw American real estate as staying flat and still decreasing in some areas but didn’t say which ones.

#127 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 4:44 pm

John G. Young @ # 125,
That’s the spirit!
I have noticed you like to commiserate with other mentally dysfunctional, chemically dependent psycho-babblers – you weirdos do tend to coagulate don’t you?

#128 Mark W on 06.09.12 at 4:51 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11882920&PidKey=507486500

Within the last decade homes like this one in Winnipeg’s North End (aka: “Bagdad”) have increased about 300% in value … as has every other neighborhood in the Peg.

In fact, a few short years ago you could have picked up fix it upper homes in this area for ten grand.

Now critics will say “Well, this is a really bad neighborhood, so why are you using it as an example?”

Simply because this neighborhood is a barometer for the rest of the city … it is not a result of demographic pressures: Winnipeg has none … is it the result of really cheap interest rates?

In other words why would a house in a ghetto, filled with crime and drugs increase by 300% in value?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZXJm9Lprxc

It is not like this area is gentrifying … it is continuing to get worse, much worse, and housing is going up 300%.

Why?

#129 Burnt Norton on 06.09.12 at 5:02 pm

Dear Chad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ee3xemyQjI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

———-

Vancouver west side house rental market cracking also?

Increasingly desperate texts from Gary the HAM landlord rental broker:

“hi i have some houses listed for rent you may interested
4015 w 35 ave  $3600
3847 w 20 ave $4300
1936 w 35 ave $4300
3847 x24 ave $4800
4533 w 14 ave $4950
pls let me know if you would like make appointment to view
thank you!
gary”

Mmmm, no thanks.

———–

Winnipeg. Had a job interview there 15 yrs ago in January. It was cold. I left.

#130 SurreyDood on 06.09.12 at 5:07 pm

I think Garth might have mixed up the Chads…..There was a Chad on March 4th/11 and another Chad on Jun 11/11. Seems like the Mar 4th Chad worked for the gov’t, said he had over $200k saved, lived like a pauper, and couldn’t get a woman if his life depended on it. I think Mar 4th Chad is our man here. I wouldn’t say he was cocky….more pathetic than anything.

#131 furst on 06.09.12 at 5:19 pm

Thanks #82 Karie and #85 Herb! Your kudos is much appreciated.

#128 Lahey I will start charging for my in person poetry readings but for you guys at the park, it’ll be pro bono. As my first fan and supporter, you’ve launched me to stardom.

#132 Johnny D on 06.09.12 at 5:26 pm

@ Westernman

So you want to live in a place that is “-40 and three feet of snow blowing at 40 mph for 6 months of the year, crime ridden dump of a mere 168,000 smack dab in the middle of godforsaken Sask.???”

Your words.

#133 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 06.09.12 at 5:26 pm

DELETED

#134 GregW, Oakville on 06.09.12 at 5:28 pm

Hi Garth, FYI, I just saw this news(May2,2012) about methane hydrates extraction. I’d guess depending on the test results it may have an effect on the cost and avalibility of methane to supply our energy needs.
http://energy.gov/articles/us-and-japan-complete-successful-field-trial-methane-hydrate-production-technologies

#135 Mingeford on 06.09.12 at 5:34 pm

I think Chad is really an Investment Banker and I imagine his future pad will be somewhat along these lines:

http://tinyurl.com/7covw7t

#136 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 6:04 pm

#131 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 4:44 pm

Troll.

#137 KingBubbles on 06.09.12 at 6:09 pm

Garth,

Winnipeg has crazy real estate prices but loads of smoking hot babes

You need them. — Garth

#138 Fleabitten Monkey on 06.09.12 at 6:13 pm

#110 Truth Hammer – can you tell me what civil service jobs pay $100K or more a year to an employee that is 29? Just interested…..pls tell me. What types of government jobs are these? Prov govt or Fed govt, job roles etc? I have a number of friends in civil service in their 40s, well educated, management positions and they don’t get paid 6 figures, not even close.

#139 Pr on 06.09.12 at 6:23 pm

The Austrian theory of the trade cycle developed by Mises a century ago tells us that credit expansion is bound to end in depression. To quote Herbert Stein’s Law, the business cycle theory essentially boils down to “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” The debt fueled boom in Canada is a house of cards. No matter how much money printing or interest rate manipulation Carney attempts, the collapse in inevitable. His record, along with Ben Bernanke’s, will eventually be one of dismal failure.

#140 Silver on 06.09.12 at 6:24 pm

#109

If you did this you would be in jail.

must work for BC ASSSSessssment…orthe Gov. gun boat.

I guess you believe fraud is acceptable

Silver

…. And I am Dealing with those bums who cant afford to pay the full mill rate based on their purchase price…. defrauding the rest of us…

#141 Sebee on 06.09.12 at 6:37 pm

Oh no, generations of renters predicted in UK. 36% will be renters. Oh the humiliation!

http://m.guardian.co.uk/ms/p/gnm/op/s7ot8YEoZIHLEby2lyWodRA/view.m?id=15&gid=society/2012/jun/09/renting-price-rise-young-families&cat=top-stories

#142 DMZ on 06.09.12 at 6:56 pm

For all of those calling Chad down about the return on investments over the past year, please re-read the posts.

A year ago he had an $85k down payment. It doesn’t mention other assets or his net worth at the time. This time around he has net worth of $235k. He doesn’t say that he parlayed $85k into $235k does it? Chances are his $85k down payment was then just a portion of his net worth at the time.

Just sayin’.

#143 John on 06.09.12 at 7:05 pm

Mark W wrote:

“http://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/features/homicides/

So you want to buy a condo or a house in or near downtown Winnipeg.

The link above is Winnipeg’s murder map.

You might notice a trend.

Almost every murder there happens in downtown or the North End.

You can easily buy one of these overpriced condos in one of Winnipeg’s 10/10 neighborhoods.

That means within a ten minute walk radius of your place there have been ten murders within the last few years.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11897227&PidKey=-1728410

Here is a condo in just such a neighborhood and the cost is only $1,550,000.

A city with almost ZERO demographic growth since 1975.

Is there a shortage of land in Winnipeg?

Is there a shortage of land in Manitoba?

I believe that the answer to that would be … NO!

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11981769&PidKey=1883422199

Or you could get in your car and drive for ten minutes and be out of the core and buy this place (still overpriced) for a fraction of the cost of $281,000.

You might notice on the Winnipeg murder map that zero murders happen in this neighborhood.

Does this make sense to you?

It makes no sense to me.”
——————

The answer to your question is: WORLD DERIVATIVES. I’ve been following this blog and getting great info for 3 months. Now I read these comments, and I’m catching on to the hard truth.

People are ignoring the truth at the exact same level and intensity as the greater fool.

Local details are kind of irrelevant…just a frankenstein lurching this way or that…fueled on a deflating or even collapsing world derivatives ponzi scheme.

Is there a gear shift in this group?

Winnipeg followed the glucose just like the rest of the WORLD. With some local differences and timing.

The towers collapsed and fake money and betting went wild. Check the graph.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS???

C’mon….
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XHgGhGXthNo/T9LVXDmPteI/AAAAAAAADpM/WEIgHgzoBGU/s1600/Average+Annual+House+Price+1990+-2011.jpg

#144 Daisy Mae on 06.09.12 at 7:09 pm

For once I’m enjoying a clean house! Now, I’d better get out of here before the neighbours get home….

(Sorry….I had to do it. Abit of levity. LOL)

#145 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 7:16 pm

Johnny D,
Not my words – someone using my handle …
You think I would live in Regina? Good God man, that would put me in the same catagory as you…
It’s hard for me to imagine what kind of absolute train wreck a person’s life would have to be when moving to Regina seems like a solution…
Like I said to you before… you have my deepest sympathies…

#146 Snowboid on 06.09.12 at 7:17 pm

#142 Fleabitten Monkey on 06.09.12 at 6:13 pm…

Truth Hammer is actually a leader of a Harper support group, they call him ‘Lord of the Lies’

#147 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 7:17 pm

John G. Young @ # 140,
Clever. You are at your very best when you practice succinctness…

#148 Raj on 06.09.12 at 7:41 pm

#42dd ,

Sorry my friend,Gold has lost its lusture.I can only see
crash from here.It has no real use and the gready investors have already scared off the largest consumer
i.e. Indian people.

#149 mel in victoria on 06.09.12 at 7:53 pm

This guy Chad sure must have some sweet Guvmint job….had 85K a year ago…..now 235K net worth despite recent losses in stock market….Salary must be abt 200 K per year… Pretty big bucks for a young fella …….or maybe he has additional income from some undeclared source…and no I would not suggest any of it was illegal.. ..Have to admit, the pointer on my BS meter spun so fast to the right it curled around the the post!!!!…..ruined my BS meter!!

#150 Canadian Watchdog on 06.09.12 at 8:04 pm

#152 Raj

Two links and a fact for you.

1) http://postimage.org/image/x88znvmdn/
2) http://www.mcxindia.com/SitePages/MarketTodayData.aspx?rand=2
3) June, July are low season.

#151 NAM not HAM on 06.09.12 at 8:12 pm

Brad is full of crap. Unless he’s a part criminal, how d the hell did he save 120k in one year. And if you want a hot brunette, don’t buy, rent. Because she will cost you so much, you won’t have money for a home. These broads cost a whack load and she will leave you once you’re broke.

So either this story is bs, or if it’s not, good luck and please write back.

#152 Marshy on 06.09.12 at 8:27 pm

Westernman @117

Actually, I did think it was your post. I thought you were softening your usual assault with a backhanded reference about moving to Regina. It is good to see that nothing has changed and you will continue to post hate filled comments on subjects you know little or nothing about.

And don’t call me Shirley.

#153 50% correction predictor on 06.09.12 at 8:32 pm

#152 Raj on 06.09.12 at 7:41 pm #42dd ,

Sorry my friend,Gold has lost its lusture.I can only see
crash from here.It has no real use and the gready investors have already scared off the largest consumer
i.e. Indian people.
_________________________
The largest consumer will soon be, if its not already, the mainland Chinese. They do not appear scared. Check the latest World Gold Council stats.

Go with the money.

#154 EJ on 06.09.12 at 8:37 pm

Winnipeg is very similar to Regina. A good chunk of the population are government employees. So what happens when the gov’t comes to its senses and realizes it’s spending far more than it’s taking in? Cuts, lots of them. They’ve already started, and their books are still drowning in a sea of red ink. Once the wpg gov’t employees start getting the axe in large numbers, fear and anger will set in.

This will likely coincide with the decline of the RE market. Feedback loops will reverse direction. Gov’t layoffs, fewer housing purchases, less construction, reduction of employment in construction industry, fewer housing purchases, decrease in GDP, reduction in transfer payments (bubbles bursting in other provinces), tightening in lending standards, fewer housing purchases…etc

Government and public will blame everyone but themselves, nobody saw it coming, we need a bailout, blah blah, you’ve heard it all before in the USA, in Ireland, in Spain. Wherever housing bubbles have struck and devastated the economy.

Winnipeg house prices need to be cut in half right now just to return to the normal trend line. Some (like the north end special and “luxury” condo in Mark W’s post) even more so.

#155 Gunboat Denier on 06.09.12 at 8:48 pm

144 Silver – so we pay taxes based on a mil rate set by the local jurisdiction and an assessed value set by bc assessment (not me, sorry).

So what, R U special?

#156 JC on 06.09.12 at 8:49 pm

My hometown is a low-growth, rapidly aging, rent-controlled government town UTTERLY dependent upon various transfers, equalizations, etc.,. etc., emanation from the “have” provinces, mainly Alberta.

It is also the most heavily taxed jurisdiction in Canada, barring perhaps the odd town in Quebec.

Rent control has resulted in near ZERO new rental units being built in 40 years, and a mania for converting shabby apartments into condo units for all the young hipsters that are in very limited supply in Wpg.

With nowhere to rent, EVERYBODY has been pressured to by something, no matter how much of a shack.

And when I say government town, I mean 4/5 households included somebody who directly or indirectly derives their income from government “employment” or contract, or entitlement cheque.

Hard to say whether the government economy bubble will float wpg housing, which never rises as high or sinks as low as most other cities where people work real jobs and live off their own earnings, mostly.

#157 JC on 06.09.12 at 8:51 pm

Winnipeg is just like Regina except without the white hot economy.

#158 JC on 06.09.12 at 8:52 pm

Winnipeg is like Regina except with more taxes, regulation, and old people.

#159 Observor on 06.09.12 at 8:55 pm

CAN PEOPLE READ AND THINK?

Chad says: Although the stock market has hurt me a bit lately I’ve managed to grow my net worth to $235k.

It was also indicated that his available down payment the prior year was $85k

People then call bullshit on Chad’s turning $85 into $235k in the market. But of course as some posters have mentioned, Chad claimed no such thing. His net worth the prior year is not given. Possibly RRSP money was not considered part of the downpayment.

#160 jess on 06.09.12 at 8:57 pm

Abacus Bank Indicted for Mortgage Fraud – More Prosecutions to Come?
bloomberg law
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/06/william-k-black-abacus-bank-indicted-for-mortgage-fraud-more-prosecutions-to-come.html

#161 Observor on 06.09.12 at 8:57 pm

FORGET CHAD… FOCUS ON THE Babe…

Chad said of his former girlfriend

she was a real babe….5’11″ brunette that was really built! She would have definitely been Amazonian certified. Sadly it ended in April

So forget Chad and focus on tracking down this babe.

Maybe Chad has a picture…

#162 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 9:01 pm

Marshy @ # 156,
Your post was coherent, quite an achievement for you I’m sure, but you did get one thing wrong though…
Not hate filled comments… TRUTH filled comments misinterpreted as hate because you don’t like reality…

#163 JC on 06.09.12 at 9:02 pm

Winnipeg is also subject to various government agencies and spending initiatives designed to stuff young people into over priced condos in the decayed Downtown core.

Of course, these areas are far from ideal for young women, children, old people, or anybody not inclined to throw down with countless members of the city’s generations-old welfare state underclass. Compounding this demographic reality is the fact the cops in the Keystone Province’s capital city make Keystone Cops look competent – Winnipeg Police Service is simply incapable of providing security at any cost and is not exactly motivated to do so.

#164 patiently waiting on 06.09.12 at 9:40 pm

99 White Rock Mom – Thank you Patiently Waiting for the information. That was an education. I think 10 – 15 percent of these listings are RE agent owned. I also recognize a number of homes that were purchased by HAM last year and are listed 20 – 30 percent higher than they paid last year! Buying and selling million dollar homes like stock really bothers me. Noted that there are a number of $100,000 price drops I still think they are at least 30 percent overvalued. The 1 – 5 percent price drops make me laugh. No deals here.
I like the Elgin area and West Vancouver. I think West Van will be less volatile than South Surrey and the commute to downtown half the time.
How do we get the more price reductions? Do we start offering stink bids at half of the listed price? Are there any real buyers agents? What are your thoughts?
——————————————————–

You are correct about the HAM in the White Rock area – it seems that many of the HAM are not buying to integrate into the community but simply trying to flip at exorbitant prices . . .

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1789857654&s=BRC&t=BRC

The above link lists 57 homes bought by HAM in the White Rock market in the last 36 months (many with the last 12 – 18 months) and put back on the market – many at huge mark ups . . . not so sure about the economic benefits to Canadians here . . . I guess it’s taking on huge mortgages to keep up with the HAM flippers . . .

#165 Marshy on 06.09.12 at 9:47 pm

Westernman @166

Gotta love it …. you are like the energizer bunny just banging away on you “TRUTH” drum without letting anything like logic or common sense get in the way.

Nice

#166 Canadian Watchdog on 06.09.12 at 9:49 pm

And so it begins, occupancy wars: as news is now spreading from the Herolds’ and Olivers’ to the Franks’ and Joes’ regarding condo sales “struggling” to meet supply in the wannabe New York city. From Buzz Buzz Home http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/forum/default.aspx?g=posts&t=1110

“Context King West JUST confirmed the project is on hold and there are rumors surrounding a number of other DT projects”

Watch for this latest trend to form as developers in distress find one excuse to the next to postpone occupancy dates (while the sales office is still open), basically throwing pre-market buyers right under the bus with their devaluing floor plans.

http://postimage.org/image/y6ngx1c01/

#167 abraxas on 06.09.12 at 9:51 pm

Garth,

PLEASE do Saint John, New Brunswick. Some of my friends are starting to go apeshit for R/E thinking it’s a OK to drop $400K+ on a bung in this one trick pony of a town where property taxes are 1.78% and the water bill rolls in at another $1K/pa and what few jobs do appear are all from Greasy, Gassy and Smelly.

#168 Marshy on 06.09.12 at 9:55 pm

Westernman

Sorry … It should read “your TRUTH drum” … is that coherent enough for you?

#169 truth hammer on 06.09.12 at 9:57 pm

#142 FBM…..maybe you watch porn on your computer…..I don’t know….. otherwise how could you have missed the regular articles about massive over compensation and taxpayer abuse by the civil service? I post all that news here ,

Garth censors most of what I post, even though it comes straight out of publicly available news sources, as fast as his hairy little fingers can hit ‘delete’. My feeling is that he may be thinking about taking another run at politics….this time for the trifecta….for a seat in a hard left union camp tof he NDP. Care to make an announcement G Man? Otherwise why the censorship of anything that doesn’t come from the left hand of Fidel Castro?

I googled for info…so can you….there are hundreds of examples of how many pigs are in the trough….on every level of government.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/highest+paid+public+sector+employees+More+than+earn+plus+annually/3172773/story.html

I doubt this public embarrassment of the unions and liberal trough swillers that Garth defends will be allowed to stand. ….some people just don’t want the truth to get out to Canadians like yourself .

While we’re on the subject…..lets try a bold experiment and roll back the income levels of all civil servants by 50% immediatley to match the ‘average’ compensation in the private sector Canada wide. Then….we cancel all the public sector pensions and give the civil servants the same pension as the rest of Candians get on CPP and OAS.

The legacy of government contracts were all made under duress anyway with essential services being taken for ransom over the years…..it should be no problem to change the law and set aside these egregious attacks on the public.

You get deleted for being deliriously off topic and terminally boring. It will continue. — Garth

#170 TurnerNation on 06.09.12 at 10:07 pm

Absent furst’s home spun real-estate-styled poetry this seedy weblog is but a collection of bawdy limericks, mangled Haikus, and metered soliloquies.

#171 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 10:18 pm

#151 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 7:17 pm

“You are at your very best when you practice succinctness…”

And you are at your very best when you don’t post comments.

I, and many many others on this blog, encourage you to be your very best.

#172 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 10:25 pm

Just mls-d Condo’s in TO: Holly crap

Fat lady is on stage and counting down from 4
Question is will they give em away or will they de list?

Police Shows,

why the hell is every second show a police show. Is Hollywood that brain dead that they can’t come up with something better.

No is a plan.

They make coppers look good so the track 6ers like em. Lets face it, the Cops are what stands between an angry mob and the ones that got all the loot.

The ones that got all the loot wants the mob to like the cops.

Cops are the modern day moat protecting the castle.

Go Montreal Students. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#173 timbo on 06.09.12 at 10:30 pm

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE8530RL20120610?sp=true

`A bailout for Spain’s banks, beset by bad debts since a property bubble burst, would make it the fourth country to seek assistance since Europe’s debt crisis began.

With the rescue of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and now Spain, the EU and IMF have now committed around 500 billion euros to finance European bailouts.“

With home prices still dropping and economies in recession this does not bode will for the markets……

http://www.economist.com/node/21556571

“WHEN warnings sound that the end of the euro is nigh, all eyes turn to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. Germany must “assume its part” in saving the currency, says Spain’s economy minister, Luis de Guindos. If there is rescuing to be done, Germany is the obvious rescuer. Yet rather than toss out the lifebelt, Mrs Merkel offers swimming lessons.“

Caught between a rock and a hard place………..

#174 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 10:31 pm

Bubble Heads Just scored row 11 centre stage for waters.

Had to by a boat and take out an old buddy, who loves the water, and waters.

Was about hook him up with hooks but was not necessary , the cruse got me the tickets.

Two weeks to go, ahhhhhhhhh way to long

#175 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 10:38 pm

John G sorry bro, for some Drinking is bad and destructive.

Sobriety to me is a destructive force, I can’t think, I lose my appetite for risk, risk is what kills people and makes them rich.

Life is a slow boat to death.

To go through life on a risk free plan is my definition hell.

Would suck if I checked out right before a grand son was drafted by the leafs. But Eating right, exercising, not smoking, not drinking, no casino, or stock market.

Might as well be in a coma

#176 Westernman on 06.09.12 at 10:54 pm

Marshy @ # 172,
Don’t worry about minor punctuation errors, I have a feeling your problems are a lot more serious than that…

#177 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 10:54 pm

#179 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 10:38 pm

Thanks for your post. I understand what you’re saying and respect your right to live life as you see fit.

One thing though: you equate investing in stocks with unhealthy lifestyle choices…

Cheers,

John

#178 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 11:08 pm

Last week I tried to do a post on The 2 ducks that have taken over the pigeons turf between Union Station and The Subway, Last Fridays temporary lake that drew in 2 optimistic ducks to the zone.

Ratio 100 Pigeons to 2 ducks.

Now the ducks have bigger beaks, feathers fluffier.

The Pigeons far out numbering the Ducks would not challenge the 2 ducks. About six months ago, I watched all the pigeons kill one of there own kind, his crime could not fly . Yet just 2 big beaked ducks scared the crap out of 100 or so Pigeons from the promised lake.

Amazing parity.

#179 Canadian Watchdog on 06.09.12 at 11:10 pm

Toronto $2.7MM Foreclosed http://postimage.org/image/8ksx1un7v/

Vaughan $1.6MM Foreclosed http://postimage.org/image/5lp9tw0t1/

Markham $1.2MM Foreclosed http://postimage.org/image/4aa5z4977/

All while the pundits keep saying affordability is better then ever.

#180 Uklurker on 06.09.12 at 11:29 pm

Ive been all over the world…including the “pearl of the prairies” that is the peg. It truly is the arsehole of the universe and why anyone would spend a dime over 100 k for nothing short of an armed mansion is beyond me.

#181 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 11:31 pm

#181 John G. Young on 06.09.12 at 10:54 pm

Investing = Gambling. Batman is right 80% of the time, you need not look further for unreal success.

unhealthy lifestyle choices is an opinion with stats in favor of your view.

But say your the triathlon guy, you train every day sacrifice, pain, time , and soul. You hit 55 and drop dead/

or

You’re a drunken hooker loving bad ass lying pot smoking, boozer, gambler, and living life like there is no tomorrow, and you crock at 80.

Who is the winner?

The guy who went with the program, or they guy who did not give a shit.

#182 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.09.12 at 11:33 pm


#146 DMZ — “It doesn’t mention other assets or his net worth at the time. . . . He doesn’t say that he parlayed $85k into $235k does it?”
— plus —
#163 Observor — “CAN PEOPLE READ AND THINK? But of course as some posters have mentioned, Chad claimed no such thing.”

Both are good posts, and are absolutely right. Need to slow down and absorb the info. given, don’t pre-judge.

#176 Smoking Man — Enjoy the show! Great seats!
*
Gold 515 tons sold in four hours; 7:37 clip Obomba blames EZone for US financial crisis (pass the buck); BdB’s Spain will be sacrificed, which also applies to PIIG and a bunch of other countries; Bank runs force Spain to ask for bailout; Cash is still king Frugal UK shoppers; FB tanks; Credit Crunch Banxters, lobbyists, lawyers and politicos all come from the same piss pot; John Mauldin A dysfunctional country or continent? Curious Headline He left out WW3.
*
2:37 clip The USS Enterprise is powered by eight nuke reactors. It is cheaper for the WH to let Israel’s three German subs blow it up in the Straits of Hormuz and let the MEast sort the mess out, and LOST (Law of the Sea Treaty) hands global governance to the UN, will deliver American sovereignty and seven-tenths of the world’s surface; Debunking the m$m myth The Pacific Ocean will not clean up the Fukushima mess, and 1:01 clip Does radioactive waste travel across the sea? Do bears crap in the woods? Nanocone Solar Panels and the energy industry; Venus and the USSR had a steamingly hot, torrid affair 45 years ago, approx. same time as Israel gunned the USS Liberty and framed Egypt; 1:45 clip UFO or new missile being tested? Minot, ND Spiking radiation levels and the missing nuke from the B52 bomber; Germ Theory and depop.; Cloud Nine Drugs leading to cannibalism; 23 hours for a baseball game?
*
12:29 clip — disciple The Electric Sun.

#183 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 11:36 pm

John G

Answer neither, your both dead, there is no god, your body rots as you decompose, memories cells are eaten by bacteria. You can’t hedge against death John.

He Who had the most painless fun wins. My logic that’s how I roll.

#184 24yr old on 06.09.12 at 11:38 pm

I’m 24, 7k in the bank and just started my first real job… What am I doing on this blog on a Saturday night? I wish I could let go and live a little.

#185 dogman01 on 06.09.12 at 11:54 pm

75 furst on 06.09.12 at 9:55 am

Bravo, that is two I have quite enjoyed.
People are interesting.

#186 Snowboid on 06.09.12 at 11:57 pm

#173 truth hammer on 06.09.12 at 9:57 pm…

My apologies, I didn’t realize you were getting your information from the MSM – it must be gospel then!

No point in arguing with the Vancouver Sun, or the Financial Post, or Global and CTV or any of them – let’s face it, they are truly independent sources of information.

Why not roll back wages, benefits and pensions (already happening anyway) to 1/2 their former level. Then you won’t have any public servants at all – what a grand idea…

I can hardly wait for the day when I call 911 and they reply “Will that be VISA or Mastercard? – did you want to upgrade to gold service?”

“You’re in a condo? Sorry, that’s an additional charge… can you hold please – we have a platinum customer waiting…”

#187 Marshy on 06.10.12 at 12:15 am

Westernman @180

Please enlighten me. I would like to know what you think my problems are. I can help you get started … my first problem would be wasting too much time responding to your idiotic posts on this blog. Feel free to carry on from here.

#188 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.10.12 at 12:42 am

@snowboid- Not sure if you will read this but thanks for the perspective. I just got back from the OK and was pleased to note all the doors that were opened for me. I’m hopeful it will be a good move, especially since there are so many ‘chads’ here in Vancouver.

#189 Aussie Roy on 06.10.12 at 1:16 am

Aussie Headlines

12 year old Canadian, Victora Grant smarter than BPOE?.

She explains why in this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx5Sc3vWefE&feature=youtu.be

But make no mistake: Australia’s debt-fuelled housing boom is over. The blow doesn’t appear fatal, but it’s an open, festering wound for many household balance sheets.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/housing-proves-to-be-nations-achilles-heel-20120607-1zyyi.html#ixzz1xMeL4l8j

Yesterday, the market took a breather because of the Queen’s Birthday holiday weekend. The clearance rate was 50 per cent for the 129 results reported, the REIV said. The outcome of another 30 sales was unknown.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/waiting-to-exhale-20120609-2030o.html#ixzz1xMeU6YNt

Keynes versus Hayek

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk&feature=fvwrel

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc&feature=fvwrel

#190 kilby on 06.10.12 at 1:50 am

And I’m interested in tall women (Amazonian variety) too; do you know any in Vancouver North?

Thanks,
Chad

What is all the “Amazon” women thing. The Amazons had their left breasts cut off (or burned off) so they could shoot better, may be effective but to date?????

#191 furst on 06.10.12 at 2:37 am

I know you have a (somewhat subjective) ban on saying Furst or any derivation thereof. But it’s been such a long time that I’m having a hard time controlling myself. I gotta do it or the universe just isn’t in order. So here goes. Please refrain from banning as that would be much appreciated. FFFFFFFUUUUUUUURRRRSSSSST!

#192 SeriousMoney on 06.10.12 at 2:54 am

$200k is a lot of money? Serious?

#193 Harlee on 06.10.12 at 3:27 am

#135 furst
And when Garth finances your first book of poetry I hope you’ll be able to do a signing at the McNally-Robinson bookstore here. Maybe even a reading at their cafe !
http://www.mcnallyrobinson.com/saskatoon_events

#194 Daniel on 06.10.12 at 3:40 am

You can tell what someone is like, just by asking them where they’re from.

Where you from?
Vancouver, so. (So, assume I’m automatically awesome because I’m from Vancouver).

#195 Aussie Roy on 06.10.12 at 4:44 am

Aussie Headlines

The fallout from the GLOBAL house price bubble continues.

Spain has formally requested a European lifeline of up to 100 billion euros ($126 billion) to save its stricken banks and try to avert a broader financial catastrophe.

Don’t worry the bailout money is, as safe as houses ?.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-10/spain-to-receive-126-billion-eurozone-lifeline/4062478?section=business

#196 Aussie Roy on 06.10.12 at 5:03 am

Aussie Headlines

So, who owns the banks?.

Australias big 4 major banks are owned by the GFC wonder banks.

JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited is listed as the number two shareholder for all of the Big Four Banks. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase & Co.

In 2010 pay-packets were:

Commonwealth Bank: CBA boss, Mr Ralph Norris earns: $16.2 million.

ANZ boss, Mr Mike Smith is paid: $10.9 million – ($5.3 million in shares – imagine that dividend cheque!

Westpac Banking Corporation: WBC boss, Ms Gail Kelly is paid: $9.6 million – ($4 million in shares)

National Australia Bank: NAB boss, Mr Cameron Clyne gets: $7.7 million ($3.1 million in shares

Meanwhile Westpac is following ANZ and sacking hundreds of bank employees.

It must be realized that the shareholders of these banks consist of overseas interests predominantly; the major 4 shareholders of our major 4 banks are JP Morgan, HSBC, National Nominees, and Citicorp Nominees.

Does this make the Aussie banking system safer?.

#197 ThiNg on 06.10.12 at 8:44 am

Garth, I would be interested on seeing Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge information. My house has been “evaluated” by the bank at $400,000 and I bought it for $240,000 (five years ago). The only improvements I’ve made is adding an inflatable pool in the backyard for the kids :)

#198 MarcFromOttawa on 06.10.12 at 9:03 am

I say Westernman is competing with Devil Advocate for title of village idiot.

#199 John on 06.10.12 at 9:46 am

ThiNg wrote:

“Garth, I would be interested on seeing Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge information. My house has been “evaluated” by the bank at $400,000 and I bought it for $240,000 (five years ago). The only improvements I’ve made is adding an inflatable pool in the backyard for the kids :)”
——-
There are many great links …as always.

ThiNg, you have an internet connection. What’s with “questions for the teacher” without studying or doing homework? Why not research, paste some links and generate a debate. CHALLENGE something, if not just yourself.

You actually accidentally answered your own question. Look outside…backyard. See that plastic bubble like inflatable pool? That’s what went on under your nose while you were watching TV and waiting for others to think for you.

An inflatable pool of digital fraud. Imagine the reality of taking that air out and blowing it back into the ponzi.

So where do you think it’s going? Where does the money trail ( starting with your neighbour’s mortgage) go? Who owns that bank and what are their international connections? What is commercial real estate on an international level, and how will it impact the air inflating and threatening any sustainable value of your home? What will happen to your local economy as people take air out of their homes and “spend” it on goods and services, trying to get something for nothing?

Who pays for this?

It’s my opinion that the average guy has been trained to be bloody lazy. I challenge you…you sound lazy and brain dead. Spend 45 minutes doing some research. Hell, how about 45 minutes a day. Share the wealth. What about using your enormous smarts for something worthwhile.

This belief that the “experts” are 100 times smarter than you isn’t correct.

You WILL be manipulated if you act like a slug.

#200 LSC on 06.10.12 at 9:50 am

Garth;

After the “Peg”, it would be nice if you could come east – way east. There has been very little offered about St. John’s, NL in any of the published reports.

Anything reported for Atlantic Canada is usually Halifax. St. John’s is not Halifax. I believe Halifax on a percentage has more government jobs then Ottawa.

St. Johns will not be easy to assess as very poor data exists if any. Prices have ballooned – “we have oil”. Recent stats indicate little or no population increase over the past five years yet whole subdivisions are going up everywhere you look. Just like the “PEG” most people come here for the weather – fog burns have fewer long term health effects.

St. John’s can offer an interesting analysis as it has a little bit in common with Calgary, Regina or Winnipeg and even other centre’s down east.

Your attention would be appreciated.

#201 ANONYMOUS on 06.10.12 at 9:56 am

((( The Economist figures the Canadian market is overvalued by over 70 per cent.

Vancouver to be the second-least affordable city in the world!

by most accounts, 2012 is going to be the year when housing prices start heading south. The housing market is already showing signs of weakness.

Canadian households have no room to take on additional debt. Many will probably struggle to keep up with what they already owe. )))

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/01/26/what-happens-when-canadas-housing-bubble-pops/

also:

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/what-happens-when-canada’s-housing-bubble-pops-.html
————-

#202 Lucky Me on 06.10.12 at 10:00 am

Sorry for the off-topic.
Is there any public website for power-of-sale in GTA?
Thank you for your help

#203 WaterlooResident on 06.10.12 at 10:09 am

To #195:

You are such an ‘AAAA$$$$SSS – HOLE’

Garth Warned you not to say that ‘Fu**t’ word, and yet you show your IGNORANCE AND STUPIDITY anyways, guy like you make me want to VOMIT !

#204 City Slicker on 06.10.12 at 10:27 am

Did you guys read this article about brother Carney about “kicking the can” down the road. Looks like Canada was quietly doing bailouts to:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-mark-carney-kicks-can

Austrian wingnuts. — Garth

#205 };-) aka DA on 06.10.12 at 10:29 am

DELETED

#206 NAM not HAM on 06.10.12 at 10:44 am

Metrotwn in Burnaby have a whack load of new condos being built. Like many other surrounding cities, new residential towers are replacing commercial businesses. Station Square at metro town will soon be home to 3 residential towers built by the Beedie group. Adding to the 5 other projects within blocks of each other. Let’s see how much hype there is with these up and coming projects. Because Bosa and Polygon sold out their projects within days.

#207 NAM not HAM on 06.10.12 at 11:28 am

#188 24yr old on 06.09.12 at 11:38 pm

I’m 24, 7k in the bank and just started my first real job… What am I doing on this blog on a Saturday night? I wish I could let go and live a little.
——————————————–

I think you’re ready for home ownership. Buy now or be priced out forever.

#208 TurnerNation on 06.10.12 at 11:29 am

Why do people need such large homes?

Most of our spare time is spent shopping, drinking, TV, video gaming. We are indeed passive tax slaves. Consuming is secondary to family matters.

#209 Just Say No on 06.10.12 at 11:30 am

Winnipeg….I must say they have really beautiful subdivisions and the illusions that the architects and designers create!!! What is even better is that there is no mortgage helper suites!! Just pure beautiful home with High property taxes and high heating costs that can easily be paid by the citizens of Winnipeg cause they are generously paid for just being such wonderful people. The Community just brings tears to my eyes.

#210 disciple on 06.10.12 at 11:50 am

#186 Nostradamus… Thanks! That was the second best 12:29 spent in the last two days:)

#211 Rural Rick on 06.10.12 at 11:51 am

Amazons are a myth started by a bunch of lousy soldiers that had their butts kicked after attacking a settlement where all the men were off raiding. The soldiers needed to come up with a story to explain how they were defeated by the women. So the women got bigger and fiercer with each retelling. Probably happened more than once.

#212 Harlee on 06.10.12 at 12:04 pm

furst #195
Damn, I think you just blew the book deal.No use worrying about Smoking Man – It’s YOU that needs rehab !

#213 TurnerNation on 06.10.12 at 12:07 pm

Over on the junior board, read about Vancuver’s property tax increase horror stories.
BPOE = Big Property-tax Owner Emergency.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/property-tax-bill-vancouver-1187120/

#214 Dr.NickRiviera on 06.10.12 at 12:35 pm

Hey Garth, will Carney ever raise interest rates? I have to say I’m pretty dissapointed that he is pushing forward with holding the line at 1% – I need some encouragement. Every few months we talk on this blog about how “rates are about to rise!” yet… they never do. Makes me start to second guess our decision to sell our house last year. It appears as though C and F will do everything in their power to keep this low interest housing bubble going indefinitely. Will it ever end?

#215 D-dawg on 06.10.12 at 12:36 pm

#108 DondWest

Wow, salty, and jelous. No?

Let me guess…from The Pas, Kirkland Lake, La Tuque, Port Alberni, or any other of the most irrelevant places in Canada is where you call home. Lol…..

#216 syd on 06.10.12 at 12:45 pm

>>But David Tulk, chief Canadian Macro Strategist at TD Securities, said the housing starts series is a volatile one and he is not convinced even heightened rhetoric about household debt and hot housing from the Bank of Canada has the power to cool Canadian real estate amid ultra-low borrowing costs.<<

#217 Debtfree on 06.10.12 at 12:50 pm

@202 mfo . This village is big enough both of them and more. How about Reddeer Alberta . Bring your own drinking water , breathing air and don’t eat any of the fish in the river . Kind of a toss up . Hide from the gangs of the peg or get poisoned by economic progress in Reddeer.

#218 Zhorgon on 06.10.12 at 1:16 pm

That furst dude ain’t no poet, he’s a stinkin’ realtor:

http://www.zillow.com/profile/Tim-Furst/

#219 John G. Young on 06.10.12 at 1:26 pm

#185 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 11:31 pm

“But say your the triathlon guy, you train every day sacrifice, pain, time , and soul. You hit 55 and drop dead/
or
You’re a drunken hooker loving bad ass lying pot smoking, boozer, gambler, and living life like there is no tomorrow, and you crock at 80.

Who is the winner?”

As you yourself acknowledged, the stats suggest that the life expectancies for your two subjects should be switched — although of course they’re not predictive in any one individual.

Anyway, why all this discussion about “winning”? Damn it Jim, I’m a doctor, not a philosopher!

Cheers,

John

PS Glad you finally shared the duck/pigeon story with us. You are one interesting guy…

#220 Snowboid on 06.10.12 at 1:31 pm

#192 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.10.12 at 12:42 am…

The best to you in your move, and don’t be in any hurry to buy!

#221 EJ on 06.10.12 at 1:40 pm

Maybe I missed it, but did the CREAtins ever let slip the exact formula for their new “house price index”? If not, someone needs to call them out on this in a major news outlet. Secret formulae in the statistics world exists only to deceive the recipients of the result.

Protip: Never believe a statistic that comes from a party who has a vested interest in it.

#222 jess on 06.10.12 at 1:48 pm

fake losses egregious!

“One of the most frequently employed and egregious shelters has been The Sales Option Bond Strategy
The Son of Boss Tax Shelter and How it Works

June 25th, 2009 ·
Son of Boss” is the nickname of a tax shelter used by Marriott International Inc. during Mitt Romney’s tenure as a Marriott director, when he was also the head of the company’s audit committee in 1994.

“Son of Boss” crackdown lands in Supreme Court
‘Son of Boss’ shelters were some of the costliest tax schemes in U.S. history. ‘Boss’ was an acronym for ‘bond and option sales strategies.’ The shelters involved creating paper losses to offset real gains.”

WASHINGTON | Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:36pm EST
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/02/romney-marriott-son-of-boss-tax-shelter.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/romney-as-auditing-chairman-saw-marriott-son-of-boss-tax-shelter-defy-irs.html

http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/11-139.pdf

#223 Westernman on 06.10.12 at 1:53 pm

Marshy @ # 191,
Yeah, just work on that one main problem for now… stick with it kid, take it slow and be patient, you’re probably a typical Canadian so you’ll be a slow learner…
Endeavor to persevere…

#224 Furst on 06.10.12 at 1:58 pm

#216 Harlee
furst #195
Damn, I think you just blew the book deal.No use worrying about Smoking Man – It’s YOU that needs rehab !
____________________
Thanks to all the supports of my poetry efforts.

Harlee, don’t turn on me now or I just may not come out to the book signing ;)

#225 Lost the taste for RE on 06.10.12 at 1:59 pm

Oh, yes — men like Chad. Within minutes of meeting a woman they talk about their impressive jobs, their impressive cars, their impressive investments, vacations, etc., etc. And their big expectations: “I’m going right to the top, Baby! It’s all gonna be mine!”

Do you ever go fishing, Chad? Do you understand the difference in the bait you use depending on the type of fish you’re looking to snag? You don’t catch a steelhead with bait the bottom-feeders find attractive.

But actually, you’re not really looking for that steelhead. Chad, what you’re looking for is a beautiful whore that will impress your friends. There are lots of them around, particularly in Vancouver. They spend a great deal of money and time on “enhancements”, clothing, hair, nails, etc. Many are good actresses. They’re all fishing too — for a rich guy.

Here’s something to try — after a few weeks with your “hot new babe” mention how you think prenuptial agreements are the smart way to go. Check her reaction.

Chad, I think “Not First” is right, in 5 years you will be divorced and broke. I know a number of men like you — my own brother included. They think with their genitals. (By the way, that’s not what they’re for.) As long as they find a woman sexually attractive, they can’t conceive of the financial (and emotional, though that might not apply in your case) ruin they can cause. Then they find out.

So go for it, Chad. Hang out at Joe Fortes or wherever and land that Hot Babe who really fills out that pantsuit. If that’s all you want in a woman, she’ll be really easy to find. But watch out, because it’s going to cost you.

This must be the world’s stickiest financial blog. — Garth

#226 DonDWest on 06.10.12 at 2:18 pm

#219 D-dawg

You confuse jealousy with mockery. Trust me, I’m not jealous of Vancouverites by any means. I always laugh at you once you’re back is turned. News about your real estate has now reached the tabloids around the world. Trust me, everyone is laughing along with me.

#227 Coraline on 06.10.12 at 2:46 pm

Cdn Watchdog: Thanks for clarifying. Off to watch more soccer!

#228 TurnerNation on 06.10.12 at 2:52 pm

Barf – this month’s Toronto Life magazine (purely for enertainment purposes) covers “The Chase”.
Mid-30s couple, a photographer and an interior designer (these are not stable high paying jobs?), one child another on the way, plonk down 1.3 million for a large W. Toronto house.

1mill+ is the new normal?

Why did you call me that? — Garth

#229 John G. Young on 06.10.12 at 2:56 pm

#229 Lost the taste for RE on 06.10.12 at 1:59 pm

“This must be the world’s stickiest financial blog. — Garth”

Which is why I like this blog so much — it deals with human emotions and behaviours, which are inseparable from money and finance.

Cheers,

John

#230 Lorne on 06.10.12 at 3:00 pm

#225 EJ

Here you are:

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/HPI%20Methodology2012.pdf

Now, that probably seems perfectly clear to you….maybe explain it to me….or anyone else who does not have a degree in statistics!

#231 truth hammer on 06.10.12 at 3:48 pm

#190 SnowB…..there will be plenty of takers for the jobs that the current raft of petulant civil servants vacate. It’s certainly racist and xenophobic unionist dogmatic anti Canadian ideology in a country that prides itself on immigration first and foremost as social and economic policy to think that we can’t hire independant contractors from other countries for far less the outrageous compensation of the unionized elite.

A good example is Switzerland hiring guest workers at competative rates on short term visa’s. They do not bring the entire family and have to pay for social services or pensions. The guest workers do a great job as firemen, grasscutters, teachers, policemen etc etc etc at a fraction of the cost of hiring a unionized local. Even the unions in Switzerland agree that this is a net benefit to the citizen. I’ve been to Switzerland many times and can say without reservation that the country runs with perfect efficiency and the Mad Max sceanario you infer by your comment is simply union rhetoric and without merit..

Garth I work within a macro state of mind…what you consider verbotten I consider as an integral part of the entirety. What has forced costs up is the needs of government to perpetuate a spending regime that outstrips GDP potential.

You might not like to extrapolate on what is happening today as being bad for tomorrow but…….as I have to …I consider all these annoying little things like politics and bad idea’s that have crept into the Canadian conciousness as being bad for the future of real estae values and everything else in this country.

Canada is in the same fiscal toilet as Europe and the US….all because of poor decisions on behalf of past political pandering……just as this article say’s about the dinosaurs of the past that are holding your precious party back can be extraoplated onto the entirety of the Canadian economic scene. We need change in this country before the spending methodology of the past destroys our future.

The best time to out the pigs is now. It may be a wake up call to many ….but the trough dwellers will learn to adapt without handouts and guarantee’s that nobody else has. After all aren’t we paying them a premium because they’re the smartest in the land?

#232 First to last on 06.10.12 at 4:31 pm

#204 LSC

http://creastats.crea.ca/stjo/

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=1001519&Geo2=CD&Code2=1001&Data=Count&SearchText=st.%20john%27s&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&Custom=&TABID=1

#233 Harlee on 06.10.12 at 4:35 pm

furst
Garth isn’t going to put up the money for your book of poetry so you’ll just have to hope that my investments stay healthy so that I can finance it. That means,my friend, no more posts like what you did at #195. Stick to the rhymes only. Got it ? :-)

#234 Keith in Calgary on 06.10.12 at 5:22 pm

Winnipeg……..hummpphhh.

I was born there, and then my father was posted to Germany in 1963 by the Canadian Army (so he wasn’t even living there by choice either…..heh).

I’ve never been back.

But I certainly do know lots of folks here in Alberta who are “from” Winnipeg…..and guess what, they’ve never been back either. So that begs the obvious question, which is, who is going there, and even more importantly, who is moving there and will be buying a property there ?? That is what I’d really like to know.

The reason stereotypes exist is because for the most part they are based on facts……so in the context of real estate you have to ask yourself……”why”…..oh gawd “why” would anyone want to live in a bug infested flood plain for 6 months of the year, or a barren and frozen tundra for the other 6. And virtually in the middle of nowhere, geographically speaking ?

To me, that’s Winnipeg.

#235 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.10.12 at 5:36 pm


Tough teachers

A former Sergeant, having served his time with the Marine Corps, took a new job as a school teacher, but just before the school year started, he injured his back.

He was required to wear a plaster cast around the upper part of his body. Fortunately, the cast fit under his shirt and wasn’t noticeable.

On the first day of class, he found himself assigned to the toughest students in the school.

The punks, having already heard the new teacher was a former Marine, were leery of him and decided to see how tough he really was before trying any pranks.

Walking confidently into the rowdy classroom, the new teacher opened the window wide and sat down at his desk.

When a strong breeze made his tie flap, he picked up a stapler and promptly stapled the tie to his chest!

There was dead silence.

He had no trouble with discipline that year.
*
Is there anything noteworthy happening in the world today? Or is it a national holiday for everyone? I’m heading outside to enjoy the sun, and burn myself to a crispy cinder!

#236 Gunboat Denier on 06.10.12 at 5:49 pm

219 D-dawg – hey what do you have against Port Alberni?

#237 Furst on 06.10.12 at 6:02 pm

#237 Harlee on 06.10.12 at 4:35 pm

I’d love to stick to the rhymes and for the most part I will. However, my creative mind needs an outlet from the creativity if you know what I mean. It’s the artist’s curse. In my case the outlet is FUUURRST. If you’re going to finance a publication of my works, please find a PR person to deal with my idiosyncrasies. Maybe we can turn it into a positive. It’ll be Andy Worhol or Andy Kaufmann’esque.

#238 Mr Buyer on 06.10.12 at 6:04 pm

#218 Dr.NickRiviera on 06.10.12 at 12:35 pm
“rates are about to rise!” yet… they never do. Makes me start to second guess our decision to sell our house last year. It appears as though C and F will do everything in their power to keep this low interest housing bubble going indefinitely. Will it ever end?
……………………………………………………
Simply put, yes, the bubble has topped and sales are falling in parts of Canada as I peck this nonsense out on my computer. All this in the midst of low interest rates. But you know this so I am wondering who you were planning to sell your house to in this environment and at what prices? BUYER BEWARE. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE.

#239 Mr Buyer on 06.10.12 at 6:22 pm

#185 Smoking Man on 06.09.12 at 11:31 pm
The guy who went with the program, or they guy who did not give a shit.
…………………………………………………………..
Your implied thesis is not entirely without merit except for the self reinforcing skewed reality. What happens from time to time is the capacity to asses risk becomes equally skewed, quite a danger for those making a living off said assessments. For some their path requires Warp 9 through the wall, I say have at her buddy, just do not hurt anybody and good luck.

#240 CJOttawa on 06.10.12 at 7:05 pm

Do Ottawa, Garth. We’d get no coverage otherwise.

We rent here. $945/mo, gorgeous 2-bedroom in a ByWard Market quadplex, a few minutes bus ride (or a nice, leisurely walk) from work.

The condo(s) across the road sell for upwards of $550,000. Taxes and condo fees *alone* on those places exceed our monthly rent.

A townhouse in the far Eastern “Avalon” suburb is a 90-minute+ bus ride away and runs $300,000.

Why would we buy here?

Tear Ottawa’s greater fools a new one, Garth.

#241 TurnerNation on 06.10.12 at 7:07 pm

Barf = me barfing. I know this forum has a special process that automatically changes the word ‘Grath’ into its correct spelling! This is why we never see it printed.

#242 Snowboid on 06.10.12 at 7:21 pm

#235 truth hammer on 06.10.12 at 3:48 pm…

You may be right, there will be plenty of affable takers for those public service jobs – but not too many will last more than a month or two. Especially in the many occupations where they can make much better salaries and benefits in the private sector – such as IT.

By the way, referring to public employees as ‘civil servants’ dates you – are you stuck in the 1970s?

Independent contractors from other countries are being held back by the unions? Now you are really exposing your ignorance. Try reading the occasional RFP or ITQ.

If you had been following politics in the last 10 years you would know that the unions (or any average public servant) had little or nothing to do with awarding of contracts.

Do you have proof that Switzerland has foreign guest workers as police and firefighters? I think not.

Obviously a public service job (unless with the UN agencies) would require fluency in German for most cantons – French or Italian for others.

You are the one that suggested the Mad Max scenario by suggesting all public servants be replaced.

The reason Canada is in the ‘fiscal toilet’ has nothing to do with the decisions of past governments, but everything to do with the Harperites, Campbell/Clarkites – etc.

How you can you be so ill-informed? Do you even live in Canada?

Either way you have one heck of a chip on your shoulder, maybe Dr. Young can help.

#243 Daisy Mae on 06.10.12 at 7:31 pm

Re #229 – “This must be the world’s stickiest financial blog. — Garth”

*****************

And you’ve got to be the worlds’ most patient man…. LOL Yeah, some of us get carried away. I guess it’s just people being human.

#244 Westernman on 06.10.12 at 7:37 pm

It is amazing to me how people can post descriptions about Winnipeg and other places that basically describe them in the same manner I just described Regina and not a peep from the politically correct left wing sheeple crybabies…
Yet when I post something similar the wails of ” hate ” can be heard all the way to Ottawa and back…
Most peculiar…

#245 TurnerNation on 06.10.12 at 7:43 pm

Futures & oil up bigtimes overnight, now, gentlemen. Put the hammer down and get on the TSX.

#246 Onemorething on 06.10.12 at 8:09 pm

Garth, I want West Ottawa (KANATA) on that list.

Chad, you remind me of someone. I married a N.Van girl when I was 33. Bought and sold RE and havent owned a pad, but rent some beauties worth 3M+ for half the price of ownership (and that’s just on P+I+T). Maintenance and any issue with the prop a phone call away.

Oh yeah, make those girls pick up a cheque once in a while to keep them honest!

NOTE: all landlords are cheapskates and with the winds of downturn all around they are skeptical for any claims so pick a higher end prop (this groups tends to be more open to taking care of their digs especially in a buyers market).

If Vancouver resembles Vancouver when the dust settles then you might look at buying.

#247 Canadian Watchdog on 06.10.12 at 8:17 pm

#245 TurnerNation

Just another short squeeze and relief rally, until reality sets in again.

#248 The guy in the Orange Shorts on 06.10.12 at 8:33 pm

Much like a pre-sale line-up..I have PHuuuuuIIYYRRZZT “Reserved” for the next Garth post .

#249 daystar on 06.10.12 at 8:51 pm

#247 Snowboid on 06.10.12 at 7:21 pm

I’m leaning towards an OCPD myself, but thats just me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obsessive%E2%80%93compulsive_personality_disorder

#250 salonist on 06.10.12 at 9:37 pm

so the gorgeous gal i married (bliss).quit her job 1 week into the marriage.it cost me a lot to keep her around for 12 years.then there was the loss of her income for 12 years.add the two together and that is a lot of money.plus what she left with.

had a chinese business person email me and called me an expletive “white guy” that was funny.

oakville got a new zoo, they put a fence around track six.

#251 An Cat Dubh on 06.10.12 at 10:06 pm

Chad, you make a decent income. Travel to Eastern Europe and Latin America and Asia and you will see how real women look and act. Will change your outlook. Yes, there are good women here, but most are taken early.

#252 Snowboid on 06.10.12 at 11:34 pm

#245 Timing is Everything on 06.10.12 at 7:07 pm

I was responding to a comment from the T Hammer about eliminating all public servants and replacing them with contractors – had nothing to do with current health care.

However, your daughters’ experience is far better than any I have had in the last ten years. I will spare you the details, but let’s just say I am lucky to still be alive.