The sucker moment

If you earn more than $230,000, you’re a one percenter. There are 275,000 people in this group, out of 34,108,752 Canadians. Saed’s one of them, a surgeon.

“I have been following your blog for the past year, and being caught in a bit of a conundrum,” he says, “thought it might be a good idea to see if I could trouble you for some advice. Three years ago, I bought a 945k home in Victoria, where I practice.  I put 20% down to avoid CMHC insurance at the time. We were happy in Victoria, but I have just been offered, essentially my dream job in Vancouver, necessitating a move.  We have listed our home here about a month ago at the same price we bought it at, with only minimal action, and are trying to decide what to do in Vancouver in the midst of all this economic and real estate madness.”

Mistake one: buying a house in Victoria for $400,000 more than the average property. The universe of upscale buyers in that city is dwindling fast, and it could now take a year to move the property. After a couple of price reductions and commission, doc will have lost at least $50,000.

Mistake two: taking on a $756,000 mortgage. After shelling out for an IRD and paying off the principal, Saed will be lucky to walk with $70,000 in retained equity, despite making $132,000 in payments.

“I don’t think I have any intention of purchasing anything in Vancouver unless our home in Victoria sells, which we may have to carry for some period of time, or rent out,” he explains. “However, once the home here sells or goes on rent, should we just continue to try to ride this roller coaster out, or have prices dropped enough that it’s wise to buy in Vancouver?”

Only if you’re a sucker. Then you’ve arrived at a special moment in the classic decline pattern of an emotional market.

Vancouver, like Toronto, is in the midst of a listings explosion. Sales volumes have retreated more than manhood in a cold lake. Yes prices are still extreme by any standard. Sure, the cost of an average SFH has fallen by just over 12%, but given market momentum, it’s obvious this is the beginning, not the end.

Natalie in North Van asked me the same question this week. She and her husband have been sitting on the better part of a million after selling their home two years ago. She knows that was the sane decision, but not a day has gone by that she’s not been obsessed with buying again. She admitted on Tuesday she checks realtor.ca “three or four times” daily, is signed up for new property alerts and has two agents feeding her fresh listings as soon as the hot sheets hit their desks.

The breaking news this week: “Two people we know who have their houses for sale, and can’t get any action at all are desperate.” So what, Natalie? “So, I think they’d take less, because both of them have to sell, and I’m pretty sure we could get a great deal, maybe even 15%.”

Both places are on the market for north of $1.6 million. And Natalie – if she buys (like Saed) – is making a textbook mistake. It’s a pure sucker moment, when those who have felt priced out, disillusioned and defeated for months get a quick shot of adrenalin as they see prices fade. Used to greedy sellers and arrogant rock star realtors, suddenly they feel empowered. Then they worry the moment won’t last, that the inexorable cycle of inflation and unattainability will begin again, locking them out forever.

It’s what bubble markets do. They mess with your head.

But with listings swelling and sales dropping, the event’s just begun. This was a lesson bitterly learned by those early vultures who swept down on US real estate in early 2006, smelling blood, only to end up catching a falling knife. After doubling in value over the last eight years, with the economy marking time, salaries trailing inflation and unaffordability off the chart this market is not going to clock out at fifteen per cent. If prices can dip 12% in a few months, they can decline 40% over the next 18 months.

This is now house lusty couples and naive surgeons get sucked in. And cleaned out. Then they join the other 99%.

Now, are we all ready for some good house porn?

This is why Vancouver is doomed.

228 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 06.07.12 at 9:43 pm

Here I sit, broken hearted, tried to short but only started.
Go Stocks!

#2 Kenny Banya on 06.07.12 at 9:46 pm

I foresee some “tough love” advice being handed out to Natalie in the comments section…

#3 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 06.07.12 at 9:50 pm

Not first but with a serious question. Will the news of a Euro meltdown impact the pysche of the average Canadian and be the trigger for a downdraft of RE across Canada? Or will it be the bad news from Vancouver that the markets are tanking that causes the eventual down turn in pricing? Nothing much happening price wise out East and we want to buy some RE soon.

#4 Smoking Man on 06.07.12 at 9:50 pm

Scum sucking vampire baby eaters

Yes The Insurance Industry

Listing to the radio today 640am there was a debate on insurance rates and depending on where you live the rates are high or low. In Jane Finch you are getting hammered, Lawrence Park you’re on easy street, very low.

Then they had some reps for the insurance association of Canada and industry people( sorry cant spell (beu-row)
They spun and danced and were full of crap, I tried to call to tell it like it was but could not get through.
I would so love to debate these scum sucking vampire baby eaters. I don’t mind scammers but they are so bad at it. What I resent is the industry so arrogant they don’t even employee competent liars.

Bottom line is Dalton MacGoof is owned by the industry.

Lawrence park gets a break because collectively that’s a good chunk of 1% ers , and when they are pissed heads roll.

The inhabitance of the Jane finch to the insurance industry are cockroaches, who are poor have no power and they are ripe for a gang raping.

The kids that grow up there know that the deck is loaded, and the Capitan lied, they have two choices
Be dish washer or become a gangster.

And when one shoots up a mall we all want blood.

I don’t blame gang bangers one bit.

To get a shitty paying job today you need university , to afford it they need to work, they need wheels to get to work , but the insurance industry makes sure, the only way for those kids can afford wheels is to sell weed.

#5 aggie on 06.07.12 at 9:55 pm

I like the advice that someone stated a blog or two: all it takes is common sense. If a decision makes natural common sense, do it. If your gut says, this is crazy, even if it seems doable today, then don’t.

Our credit-crazy economy, and real estate in particular, has long left a foul feeling in my gut, even as I played along, alongside everyone else. Now I pay the price, and others will follow.

Almost 6 decades old, and I’m finally honouring good old common sense and finally looking forward to living by its guidance. Now that’s crazy, in a good kinda way!

All in all, this one-percenter’s story is no different than mine, really, just the scale factors are different. I suspect he’ll rent a purdier place than I will. But we’ll both be better off — and definitely feel better — for having made that decision!

#6 Westernman on 06.07.12 at 9:57 pm

Second!

#7 Realtors in a Panic! Now they attack Garth on 06.07.12 at 9:57 pm

Realtors in vancouver know the game is over and the Toronto realtors see the vancouver crash coming to Toronto . You can see the many realtors from all over canada posting in a panic on garths blog. If the market wasn’t crashing they would be here. It’s going to be a nasty crash.

#8 James on 06.07.12 at 9:58 pm

always interesting article. while i read about toronto’s and vancouvers decline, are there public sites which allow one to investigate the total listing to try and track some of the total listings, declines, prices that you refer to? i tried to track that down in CREB from a historical perspective but must be looking in the wrong areas. anywhere you can point a curious ‘post bubble’ buyer?

#9 Don't Believe The Hype on 06.07.12 at 10:00 pm

Natalie in North Van with “the better part of a million sitting in a bank” and itching to purchase another home. You need to chill, girl! Make that money work for you.

#10 Not on the boat. on 06.07.12 at 10:01 pm

The real issue is trust. We are about to witness a massive evisceration of hard working Canadians equity. The culprit, trust. Trusting parents who work with a different paradigm, trusting bankers, trusting agents, trusting media. I work hard. I have trained and practiced my skill. I am good at what I do. In turn I look to those who are practiced and trained in what they do and I trust them to do it. Well, I used to. Now I just follow the money. I look at most professionals and I ask what would benefit them the most, not me. It’s sad. It’s regressive. And this time, it’s not different.

S

#11 the word of reason on 06.07.12 at 10:04 pm

god bless you

#12 Freedom First on 06.07.12 at 10:04 pm

Awesome blog & house porn video Garth! Blows my mind!
I have seen it all of my short life:)………does not matter how rich someone is…..stupid is as stupid does:)……with house horniness the only difference between the rich and the average people is the $$numbers$$:)…….I am blessed, and have been for years as I want what I have, and that folks, to me, is the definition of being happy:)

#13 chojo88 on 06.07.12 at 10:04 pm

What does the assessed value of a 30 million dollar house have to do with the general real estate market for us slobs that can only afford 1 million? Just sayin’

#14 thinker on 06.07.12 at 10:04 pm

That news story is basically saying, screw listings and sales, prices are still high and they ain’t coming down.

#15 Sebee on 06.07.12 at 10:05 pm

Here is the total units info I was asking for a few posts back.

http://www.toronto.ca/committees/council_profiles/pdf/tey_households_page.pdf

So we have about 300k SFHs in GTA. What are the annual GTA SFH sales lately someone remind me please? Just curious.

#16 KW T800 on 06.07.12 at 10:08 pm

It is about time something happened now sit back and watch people squirm.

#17 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.07.12 at 10:09 pm

Crack Shack or Mansion, Toronto Bungalow Edition:

1) C2322451

2) C2344860

3) C2356846

4) W2358300

5) W2338773

6) C2374028

7) C2366196

8) E2382971

9) W2382300

10) W2360140

Answers:
1) Mansion ($850k)
2) Mansion ($950k)
3) Mansion ($950k)
4) Crack Shack ($299k)
5) Crack Shack ($255k)
6) Mansion ($899k)
7) Mansion ($1.25M)
8) Crack Shack ($299k)
9) Crack Shack ($230k)
10) Crack Shack ($240k)

#18 AprilNewwest on 06.07.12 at 10:09 pm

A brilliant surgeon and me just a lowly psych nurse knows not to jump in to this market after a 15% decline. From reading Garth, and a few others in the know, I believe Van RE and most of Canada has a long way to go yet before it makes sense to buy.

#19 Bottoms_Up on 06.07.12 at 10:11 pm

Let’s show $30 million dollar homes because they’re so relevant to the average family. Then, let’s say “don’t wait around for the bubble to pop”, and have some economist mumble something about prices being flat. lol

#20 sanddancer on 06.07.12 at 10:16 pm

A friend in west Van told me this evening that there nieghbour sold there house this week- 1 day on the market, listed for 1.649 mil, sold for 1.640….in a day !

Still action out there..it was sold to a young family

#21 Someone on 06.07.12 at 10:19 pm

Garth, a few months ago you called anyone expecting more than a 15% RE price decline a moron… I see you are now predicting a 40+% price decline… Have you joined the ranks of morons? What gave?

The 15% number, as stated often, is a national average. Local markets will vary widely, depending on the moron count. — Garth

#22 Onemorething on 06.07.12 at 10:22 pm

well doc, dream jobs are hard to come by these days.

you can take the 10%-15% hit now on transaction and closing and potential drop in asking to dump it OR take a 40-50% loss when all come unglued.

Van – RENT! One year term! drop in rent to come with drop in RE values.

#23 Herb on 06.07.12 at 10:24 pm

#15 Sebee,

you found it. Well done.

#24 Smoking Man on 06.07.12 at 10:24 pm

#6 Westernman on 06.07.12 at 9:57 pm
Second!
…………………………………………..
Seriously WM

#25 Complete Fraud on 06.07.12 at 10:25 pm

Wait? Haven’t prices come down 12%?

Yet, the Global TV Presstitute states:

“Benchmark prices remain the same.”

Is there some legal loophole I’m not seeing here?

Isn’t this complete fraud?

#26 LH on 06.07.12 at 10:26 pm

@ #17 T.O. Bubble Boy

Re: Crack Shack or Mansion, Toronto Bungalow Edition:

It’s very simple, “C” for central = MANSION
Anything else = CRACK SHACK

C01 in May 2012
average detached house sold for $1.07mm
Average days on market: 8

This is not a buyer’s market

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2012/mw1205.pdf

#27 NAM not HAM on 06.07.12 at 10:27 pm

Lululemon is worth 4 billion. I’m sure he’s not screwed.

#28 Chaddywack on 06.07.12 at 10:27 pm

That piece was so daft……

“10-15 year averages” and quoting the “benchmark price” which as a number cruncher I can’t even understand it’s methodology…..

All that thing was missing was some helicopters and real estate agents of Chinese background posing as investors from China.

Global seriously should have its broadcast license pulled!

Is this Alice in Wonderland…..everyone is “mad! I say!!”

#29 Mr. Anderson on 06.07.12 at 10:31 pm

With respect to Dr. Sade…..I hope to hell he’s a better surgeon than he is a financial genius.

#30 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.07.12 at 10:34 pm

Yes, I admit that the “C” vs. “W” or “E” were too obvious.

Next edition will be just pictures.

#31 Westernman on 06.07.12 at 10:36 pm

Smokingman @ # 24,
You don’t really believe that was me, do you? Remember, I’m a high profile participant on this blog and of course that makes me a target of various jealous lesser intellects…

#32 Smoking Man on 06.07.12 at 10:39 pm

#7 Realtors in a Panic! Now they attack Garth on

Hey LaughingCON did it ever occur to you to stop copy pasting your shtick that you have been doing since 2008
Its the same every time.
Nothing has changed since the globe and mail. It’s so obvious it’s you.

I remember you chirping your sister who bought in Milton in in 2009. You called her every loser under the sun.

Talk about egg in your face, here net worth doubled and you, well.

Your shtick “SMOKING MAN IS A REALTOR”

You lost big, I’m Sober now idiot

#33 Prepmonkey on 06.07.12 at 10:42 pm

#14 Wickedly brilliant!

#34 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 06.07.12 at 10:44 pm

Back in the early 90’s we were suckers who bought a house for 156k that had been purchased by the previous owners for 180k. Beautiful home. We thought we were very clever. Fast forward two years, disaster struck, marriage broke-down, bankruptcy followed and the next purchaser got the place for 129k. I understand that 13 years passed before prices returned to the bubble highs of the late 80s. Saed and Natalie, follow Garth’s advice. Wait. You’ll be glad you did.

#35 Bashful renter on 06.07.12 at 10:46 pm

Mistake one: buying a house in Victoria for $400,000 more than the average property.

Good point.

#36 Toronto_CA on 06.07.12 at 10:49 pm

That video was goddamn offensive. “The benchmark” is up without ever explaining wtf the “benchmark” is. What craptastic journalism. I’d like to sit down with that “journalist” and yell some sense in to her for a few minutes. And showing how the guy who owns Lulu Lemon is building a ridiculous mansion (that will fall way down in value) has nothing to do with what the average household in Vancouver is facing. Ugh. Now I’m all mad.

#37 Van grrl on 06.07.12 at 11:05 pm

I went to see a student in Kerrisdale today (Larch and 41st) and there were four listings in a half block radius of his house. Last week there was one. So as I was leaving I jotted down the addresses of the houses for sale and on the way home, on 33rd, jotted another down. Came home, googled them. The one on 33rd is selling for 1.7 million. The other two-on the same street- 1.6 and — wait for this- 3.6 mill!!! What the HELL?? I stared at the number thinking maybe I was off by a zero- was it 366,000?? Decent houses, to be sure- a step up from the crack houses posted on earlier threads but geezus, nothing really special… no great view, nowhere near the beach. Average size lots.

Still complete idiocy in this city.

#38 Can it be? on 06.07.12 at 11:07 pm

Common sense. More price drops in the GTA. I think bidding wars are only in certain areas, ie. Etobicoke, north Toronto… From what I hear anyways. For the life of me… People are really nuts… I think if they are willing to take on the debt, let them sweat the co sequences. Someone I know… North toronto, also a Doc… Crying daily over the pressure of carrying enormous debt. I say cry it out in your fabulous rain shower and let me know if I should still pity you? Being debt free is priceless :) trust me. Knowing I’ll have a retirement… Also priceless. Let the last greater fools rush in, you can’t save everyone and there is always a greater fool.

#39 West coast on 06.07.12 at 11:08 pm

40 percent of 37 million is 14.8 million. Ouch. But perhaps mansions are less price sensitive as its real wealth and not credit driven. Either way it’s amazing that it used to be civilization changing inventions that created the super rich and this guy did it by making pants that make your ass look nice. Way to go Chip! I’m inspired every time I see your symbol walk by.

#40 LS on 06.07.12 at 11:09 pm

@CompleteFraud: Isn’t this complete fraud?

Yes it is. More precisely, Garth’s number seems to be pulled from thin air. No actual source for a 12% decline

SFH average drop in May. — Garth

#41 XKR on 06.07.12 at 11:11 pm

#17 You should turn that into a board game.

#42 Fat Bastard on 06.07.12 at 11:21 pm

Natalie, please do buy! What do you think this is, the classic bear trap that immediately follows the highest point of a price bubble ??? Ha!

You know you screwed up by selling two years ago. Sucks… that’s why you go to realtor.ca 4 times a day. Now is your chance to get back in the game and leave behind those dark days of renting. Listen to the media, to the banks, to the realtors, the people who really know the business and care for your best interest. Yes Natalie, this is your chance to make things better again. Plus rates are at the lowest !!!

Opportunity, opportunity, is knockin` at your door!
Opportunity, knocks but once, and don`t come back no more!
So, Grab it in the night! Grab it in the day!
Grab it right now, or it may get away; you better
SNATCH AND GRAB IT, NATALIE !!
SNAAAATCH AND GRAAAB IT !!!

Can’t wait for what’s coming. Even Mr. Harper is all doomy gloomy now. It’s gonna be a catastrophe of monumental proportions.

#43 Junius on 06.07.12 at 11:35 pm

Vancouver prices will rocket higher in the fall.

They always do.

They always will.

Junius

#44 50% correction predictor on 06.07.12 at 11:35 pm

Dear Surgeon, Dear Natalie,

If you are reading this blog tonight, please listen carefully:

Each of you have the money to buy. So why not buy now and enjoy your sweet home right away? The people who urge you not buy are mostly losers who have been left behind by the powerful real estate bull market in Canada.
It’s not guaranteed that the prices will come down. Maybe the prices will pause and then power ahead relentlessly. Then you’ll be left behind just like the losers here.

To all those bubble callers:

I have an on-going bet with one of my colleague. She said real estate prices will never come down in Canada. I told her it will come down 50%. It’s a serious bet. The time horizon is three years.

If you losers keep urging people not buy, then the buyer pool will never exhaust. The bubble will never burst. And even it bursts eventually, then it will probably be years away. And I lose bet.

So please STFU!

If you seriously want to see the bubble burst, then please act like me. Encourage people buy, and buy as much as possible. I tour open houses every weekend, praise each houses, tell buyers how quick the sale can be. Tell them if they snoose, they will lose. So far it has been very effective. The houses that I visited have all been sold above asking prices. I also encourage people buy pre-construction. That way, more will be built. The supply will get bigger.

This is only way that the bubble will burst – buyer exhaustion.

So if you can not help, at least you can STFU!

#45 J on 06.07.12 at 11:36 pm

Shouldn’t there be 341,087 in the top 1% of 34,108,752 Canadians?

#46 Observor on 06.07.12 at 11:42 pm

Hopefully this blog can attract more of the 1% to post here.

It’s nice to hear the thoughts of financially very successful people.

And it would be wise (but unusual) to listen to them.

#47 Jonno on 06.07.12 at 11:43 pm

#40 ls

Ave down 12% in may yoy there are many links here is one . The benchmark is flat and is an indexed created by the real estate assoc. That is why you are confused…

http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/06/vancouver-average-price-for-may-2012/

#48 Van guy on 06.07.12 at 11:48 pm

#40 LS on 06.07.12 at 11:09 pm

@CompleteFraud: Isn’t this complete fraud?

Yes it is. More precisely, Garth’s number seems to be pulled from thin air. No actual source for a 12% decline
————————————–

Would you believe a realtor? Here you go:

http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/06/vancouver-average-price-for-may-2012/?src=widget

#49 City Slicker on 06.07.12 at 11:50 pm

In the US sub prime started 2001, July 2006 home ownership hit 70%. 5 years to get there

My prediction is July 2012, next month, things unravel. Canada started 0 down 40 year amorts 2007, add 5 years and we are right on schedule for July 2012.

#50 Frustrated Kiwi on 06.07.12 at 11:52 pm

Since the Ozzies that post here are tolerated, hopefully kiwis are OK too. I have advice for Saed – don’t rent out the Vic house, lower the price. We moved to NZ from St Louis (USA) two years ago. Our house there didn’t sell so we rented it out. We got very lucky because we then got an offer from someone who had seen it when it was on the market so we finished up the (short) lease and sold it. The original plan was to wait out the downturn – hah! The concept that we might be renting it out for a very long time didn’t cross our minds at the time. Saed – have you thought about what the best and worst case scenarios are for the price of your Vic house if you wait?

Having moved to Auckland, we we are now in a city with no end in sight to its property bubble (the quote about markets staying irrational comes to mind), very frustrating! My only hope is that the Canadian and Australian housing markets correct, which makes Aucklanders finally wake up to their non-sustainable house prices. Needless to say, we are still renting here.

#51 Crash Callaway on 06.07.12 at 11:54 pm

Yeah… when the average shmucks stop lining up to buy the 1 million dollar homes dangle the 37 million dollar shack in front of their mesmerized eyes.
Same greed mentality kicks in as in the mega million dollar lotteries.
People renew their Homer Simpson beliefs that they’ll get that 37 million $ home if they just keep buying & moving up.

Buncha Winners alright.

#52 Sebee on 06.07.12 at 11:57 pm

Yes Herb, found it.

2006 numbers say 980k units. So let’s say 1.1m units now, and what does it say by the highway? 2.6m population? Seems strange to have a 2 person or so per unit average with all those families, basement apartments, etc. I’d like to make sense of that. Plus I’d like to know what volume of total units available is dictating price. Not reading much into it, just curious.

#53 45north on 06.08.12 at 12:00 am

in the US, prices dropped at different times in different places – San Bernardino, CA and Cape Coral, FL were two of the first. A big difference between Canada and the US is the speed of recognition of a significant drop. In the US, there was a great deal of reluctance to acknowledge that prices had dropped and weren’t coming back. In the US there was a feeling that “after the Super Bowl” or “in the spring” prices would rebound. In Canada, it’s kind of hard to argue that prices will decline as long as they remain high but once they fall, that’s it – it’s over.

as far as OSFI regulations to re-qualify borrowers when their mortgage come due, the banks can easily implement their own rules – miss a payment, miss two and see if your mortgage gets renewed

#54 thinker on 06.08.12 at 12:07 am

The question to the good doctor is – Was your house ever worth more then you paid after you bought it? I assume he bought the top?

#55 Not 1st on 06.08.12 at 12:10 am

Garth, don’t glorify the 1 percenters. Most of them have more money than brains.

#56 thinker on 06.08.12 at 12:23 am

Check out how great things are in Greece, a political debate

http://youtu.be/l2ZXxYy1G0c

#57 Dan in Victoria on 06.08.12 at 12:25 am

Aggie @5
Good, just take your time, it will make perfect sense once you understand.
Just watch / read this blog and how people think and react.
Great training.

#58 Gunboat Denier on 06.08.12 at 12:30 am

179 Disciple – yes indeed, a quite abstract concept that is just accepted as “money” by most. A promise to pay. Next question then. What are we really paying with?

#59 Mr Buyer on 06.08.12 at 12:32 am

National Television says prices are not declining…Prices are declining. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. SALES ARE FALLING AND PRICES ARE FALLING IN SOME AREAS OF CANADA NOW AS WELL (even the people on TV know this)

#60 Heinz Skitzvelvett on 06.08.12 at 12:34 am

I’ll know when the Vancouver bubble has burst when I no longer see Tsur Somerville and Cameron Muir (who wears a goatee other without a fedora anymore?) on the 6 o’clock news.

They will have been replaced by Garth and Rosenberg and an economist from Capital Economics, each with a lower third that reads “Predicted current housing crash”

#61 $$$BPOE#1 on 06.08.12 at 12:37 am

Real Estate is a long term investment. Living short term you can be better off renting. Now that we’ve discovered the OSFI has no jam and will be doing nothing of any significance whatsoever we just need to get rid of the HST debacle. Love the new postings on some Realtor signs “Too Late”. Everything is being bought up lock stock and barrel. Watch for uber rich townhouses at Granville and 16th. Hurry these won’t last. From a money standpoint a house is worth nothing til it is sold. There is no loss period. Plus the added bonus of peace of mind and your parents still love you. When you rent your parents have doubts about you

#62 $$$BPOE#1 on 06.08.12 at 12:39 am

Folks there is NO PANIC in BPOE and that’s a fact. Any posts about uncertainty in BPOE are pure bull. We’re as smug as ever because we’re better than everyone else on the planet. Folks, this is why it costs so much to live here. Because we’re Simply the Best

#63 ozy - RE segragation started GTA on 06.08.12 at 12:44 am

RE segregation now evident in GTA in top of RE ethnic enclavization. House type mixed with locale, puts you in Well-done versus At Risk.
Clear conservative capitalistic market forces are strongly at work to split the RE market in two, the have-nots and have-all.

Think about it for a minute, have you also noticed that?

In a few years once the wave (rates) rise, we’ll see who swam naked, and more, once the storm is over, the poor will be poorer in poor rated houses and rich richer in richly rated houses (see Amerika’s RE controlled implosion show).

Remember, no MIDDLE GROUND fellas (or little, irrelevant).
So make your choice rationally today, if you Can and if you Dare I say choose the ……… side! Watch WHAT and WHERE you BUY. If you can’t make it stellar (given the circumstnaces) better move out, leave the town’s scam to run its course and watch the theater.
Don’t say u were not warned. All included.

#64 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.08.12 at 12:45 am


“Sales volumes have retreated more than manhood in a cold lake. Only if you’re a sucker. They mess with your head. Now, are we all ready for some good house porn? This is now house lusty couples and naive surgeons get sucked in. And cleaned out.”

Last three words sums up where most sheeple are headed. Mmmm, grilled lamb chops with mint jelly, new potatoes and assorted veggies. Dessert follows. Sound good?
*
#9 Don’t Believe The Hype — Top notch advice and, undoubtedly, will go in one ear and tumble straight out of the other. Only in Canada, eh? Pity!

#206 Hoof-Hearted on 06.07.12 at 9:24 pm — That quote would explain dubya’s two false victories. TPTB choose the next lynchpin.
*
Global Firepower Who’s got what; Opposites Attract Yesterday, David Cameron blasted Angela Merkel. Today, the reverse, Obomba steps in and Osborne’s referendum; 5:38 clip Silver vs. US$; When one door closes, another opens; China Rate Cut; Words are Meaningless or talk is cheap; Toronto car-sharing market; Traveling; Best Buy Going down? Fast Food in ChIndia; Spain Too big for the IMF or EZone to save? Add Italy and France in; US on verge but US concerned about EZone banks; Society is broken and needs to be fixed, but won’t be; 20-Somethings Do a Mark Zuckergerg and retire early!

Back To The Future; FB vs. Google; Top 20 Defaults; Charts. etc.; The Big Dump or China, but China and Russia want into Af’stan (for business, not war like the Yanks); Arctic Riches; Desperate Young People; China’s growing role, but China is also crashing.
*
Interesting Diet Teenage boy has to eat a high fat diet everyday to stave off illness; Toxic Caterpillars It’s a bug’s life; Brzezinski Another who advocates depop., but is right on one aspect — don’t let oneself get emotionally scarred by all that’s happening us, simply because nothing can be done to prevent it; Kissinger proposed to destroy the US just prior to Sept. 11; Great Wall of China More than twice as long as previously thought; Okiller He advocated change is good, and sheeple fell for it; Putin – Charest Interesting view on two leaders; Full Nest Syndrome; TPTB are meeting in Montreal June 11. What say we all gatecrash the party? Plus 15 min. clip Message to the NWO which they will ignore; A subtle new world; The Venus Transit and the lost civilizations (just rebirth, not lost); Irish ‘Quake caught most by surprise.

#65 ozy - RE economic segragation started GTA on 06.08.12 at 12:47 am

RE economic segregation now evident in GTA in top of RE ethnic enclavization. House type mixed with locale, puts you in Well-done versus At Risk.
Clear conservative capitalistic market forces are strongly at work to split the RE market in two, the have-nots and have-all.

Think about it for a minute, have you also noticed that?

In a few years once the wave (rates) rise, we’ll see who swam naked, and more, once the storm is over, the poor will be poorer in poor rated houses and rich richer in richly rated houses (see Amerika’s RE controlled implosion show).

Remember, no MIDDLE GROUND fellas (or little, irrelevant).
So make your choice rationally today, if you Can and if you Dare I say choose the ……… side! Watch WHAT and WHERE you BUY. If you can’t make it stellar (given the circumstnaces) better move out, leave the town’s scam to run its course and watch the theater.
Don’t say u were not warned. All included.
Won’t be surprised to see Gated Comunities in a few years in kanata, amerikan model.

#66 Leo on 06.08.12 at 12:59 am

In addition to house for sale signs popping up all over Vancouver, a lot of retail and commercial signs for lease are dotting the city landscape. Companies also find Vancouver real estate unaffordable. How can Vancouver survive without a healthy foundation of economics I.e. jobs….Vancouver wages are high and everything else is high including tonnes of people smoking up to ease the stress of spending 80% of the income financing a roof over their heads.

#67 Leo on 06.08.12 at 1:00 am

Oops. Vancouver wages are not high.

#68 LS in Arbutus on 06.08.12 at 1:03 am

OK, renting does kinda suck in one way. Particularly if you have the money to buy. BUT, losing 40% of your money because it was burning a hole in your pocket sucks 1000 times more. As well, spending $1 million + to buy something that’s a “fixer upper” and then losing $400k, is even worse.

You would have to be some sort of crazy (and stupid), after reading this blog and seeing the current stats on sales and listings to consider going near houses in Van right now.

YTD sales of SFH on the West side, arguably the most desirable area in Vancouver, are down 39%! How does this look at all appealing to buy into??

The surgeon’s going to get a hard lesson after it takes months and months and months to sell his Victoria home. He has to at least experience that pain before he jumps into the Vancouver market.

Given the option of losing 40%+ of the value and simply renting, come on, it’s a no-brainer.

Oh and that Global TV piece…. wow… LOVE IT!!! Let’s talk about the UBER-rich and the highest priced houses in all of Canada… seriously, that tells the whole story right there, does it not?

#69 Aussie Roy on 06.08.12 at 1:12 am

Aussie Headlines

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens expressed optimism about the nation’s economy and cautioned against monetary policy settings that could reignite asset bubbles, the risk of which he said was low.

“The intended effect of recent policy actions is certainly not to pump up speculative demand for assets,” Stevens said in the text of a speech today in the southern city of Adelaide. “Our judgment is that the risk of re-igniting a boom in borrowing and prices is not very high, and this was a key consideration in decisions to lower interest rates over the past eight months.”

Pity he doesn’t realise we already have a house price bubble built on a mountain of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-08/rba-s-stevens-warns-against-rate-fueled-consumer-spending-boom.html

Australia’s top central banker says recent interest rate cuts are not designed to spare mortgage holders the pain of falling house prices.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens on Friday said he had no intention of engineering a return to the spiralling property prices and household debt levels which characterised the pre-2007 housing boom.

Mr Stevens said the surge in household wealth in the decade or so leading up to 2007 – which rose by about six or seven per cent a year – was driven primarily by unsustainable growth in property prices.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/rate-cuts-not-aimed-at-house-prices-rba-20120608-200or.html

#70 Aussie Roy on 06.08.12 at 1:20 am

Most telling part of the RBA gov speech.

Mr Stevens said “the surge in household wealth in the decade or so leading up to 2007 – which rose by about six or seven per cent a year – was driven primarily by unsustainable growth in property prices”.

Any “BULLS” want to comment that house price rises greater than 5% p.a. are sustainable, in any market?.
If so please message our RBA gov.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Stevens

#71 Riding the Pine on 06.08.12 at 1:49 am

Some cruel irony for recent condo buyers…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/why-buying-a-reit-is-more-profitable-than-a-condo/article1322188/

#72 BigBear on 06.08.12 at 1:52 am

According to our daily here in Victoria, there are still plenty of fearless gamblers willing to go all in on RE here in Vic… somehow I think they are too busy reading blueprints and building permits to read blogs like yours Garth. I’m 48 with 30+ yrs in home renos, used to earn 6 figures comfortably doing 20 hrs a week in sales during the debt fueled cycle, now it’s dead. DEAD! I can’t break even and there are thousands of guys willing to work for peanuts. It’s done for the next 10 years here. Luckily, I sold my house in 2010 and have been renting since. Yes, I took your advice back then, unlike the surgeon mentioned above.

Here’s the link
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Multifamily+drives+building+boom/6737786/story.html

Thoughts on where I should go? I have family in Guelph who’d like to see me but I’m not confident about it…

#73 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.08.12 at 1:54 am

I’m with Natalie, except only once a day. That’s my routine- read the blog then the mls listings. Speaking of which- does anyone know a good realtor in the north okanagan? I saw a foreclosure this week and cant stand spin. On one hand i heard that 1/20 listings in Vernon is a foreclosure, on the other hand ‘sales in area A, B, C, and E are balanced now. . . ” Yada yada yada. And she drove a sleek black sports car. I’m sure Garth would think she was hot. Ive secured a rental but do not want to rent for much longer, not when i can afford a place outright with no or very small mtge. Is that so bad????? I’m going crazy renting, wont last long. . . BTW- What exactly is going on there now. Does anyone have some numbers on listings, foreclosures, sales etc? MUCH appreciated. That clip was disgusting. No one needs a house that expensive, not with the world the way it is.

#74 Jim on 06.08.12 at 2:08 am

Good lord,

What a hideous ‘news’ segment. I left Vancouver 7 years ago, and I seem to have forgotten how bad the local news stations can be. That was nothing more than house porn mixed with propaganda that would make a Soviet commissar blush. Cameron Muir had a sly look on his face like he is packing his bags for Brazil.

“Are house prices declining? Well, let’s go and look at some ultra expensive homes, interview a few locals about construction zones, and then flash a quick reassuring soundbyte from Cameron Muir…”

As another poster said, too bad the budget didn’t make room for helicopters.

#75 Knucklewalker on 06.08.12 at 2:14 am

Yes “M” is for Moron and also Muir that Cameron Muir…

What an asshole…

#76 truth hammer on 06.08.12 at 2:25 am

Sorry but heres the reality of it……Doctors want to think that people respect them…but in fact when they walk into the investment arena we look on them as woosy marks and easy turns. Of course they pay way over market…and will again…the basic doctor arrognace blinds them to how easy they are to manipulate.

And in fact they don’t get really hurt by the squeeze …because the doctors and dentists rake in so much dough from the public purse they can’t keep track of it.

Its another reason why they keep coming back for more. The worst of the lot are the dentists……….they have that special combination of dumb as doorknobs about money and just plain stupid from being mollycoddled by ambitious parents.

You will never meet a doctor who is successful in private enterprise…….they’re lucky they’ve had good mommies and daddies to put them through school…otherwise they’d have ended up giving hand jobs in the hallways of the bigger better smater faster world of enterprise. You’ll usually found that a doctor has married some desperate hag with a bit of family money that the doctor pretends is his own pile. Talk to enough of these guys on the golf course and you quickly pick up on the patter….as if they learn the same lies from a magazine.

S’truth……MD’s and inheritance cases are the easiest to spot and the easiest to take down for the ambitious brokers and ‘advisors’ ……big mouth-small brain-no sense…..out of touch with reality by factors of ‘sheesh is this guy stupid’….. There is a large segment in the financial community that relishes the times when these suckers come through the door……some people have predatory tendancies….unlike me.

Next on the food chain though believe it are the lawyers….greed…..poorly educated in finance…maths or ‘the common touch’…….these guys buy into the zaniest scams out there………they play like punters on a crack binge….always trying to knock one out of the park as ‘investors’….always losing their shirts……..they end up as insiders ripping people off with slimy tactics but never with investment smarts only sleazy tricks. But bigggggg suckers on the car lots…….fish in a barrel for salesmen who pretend to ‘be impressed’. Bwahahahahahhahhaaa.

#77 Aaron - Melbourne on 06.08.12 at 2:48 am

Australia’s top central banker says recent interest rate cuts are not designed to spare mortgage holders the pain of falling house prices.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/rate-cuts-not-aimed-at-aiding-house-prices-stevens-20120608-200ti.html

But without changes to the favourable investor tax breaks (Negative Gearing) or removal of the First Home Owners Grant incentives how could it be anything other than an open mouth operation desperately signalling BUY.

He has to back it up with action taking square aim at speculative activity. Back in 2003 the RBA conference topic was “bubbles”.

That sucking sound we can all hear is household disposable income going entirely into debt service and rapidly inflating utilities bills via special charges. Characterised as our achilles heel.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/housing-proves-to-be-nations-achilles-heel-20120607-1zyyi.html

I’m still highly suspicious that Oz will replicate CMHC to a chorus of chants about “affordability”. Reality would really be to resore the bubble conditions. In which case I’ll step to the front of the cue because the only thing that can result is a (further) speculative boom.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/peak-mortgage-association-pleas-to-boost-non-bank-lenders/story-fn91wd6x-1226386779983

#78 Joe on 06.08.12 at 3:05 am

Garth, where can I still find average home price in Vancouver or Calgary? Where are you seeing 12% drop?

#79 Canuck Abroad on 06.08.12 at 3:23 am

Guess that explains Wilson’s sales of around USD 40 million of Lululemon stock back in Feb and March of this year. Easy come, easy go. What does one do with two dozen bathrooms exactly? Besides run up a hefty cleaning bill?

#80 Canuck Abroad on 06.08.12 at 3:37 am

Saed, why would you want the hassles of being a long distance landlord when you should be focussing on building your practice? At the same time, why would you want to rush in and buy in Vancouver if you aren’t sure you will like the job or the city? Have you lived there before?

If you are new to a city it’s easy to put off nosey parkers who want to know why you haven’t bought, with “we just wanted to make sure we like the neighbourhood” or “we just want to make sure we are happy with the new job” or something like that. Sell in Victoria, rent a nice place in Vancouver that you both will be happy to live in, and buy a place for a fraction of today’s price in a couple of years once you are more familiar with the city.

#81 Aussie Roy on 06.08.12 at 3:43 am

Aussie Headlines

You need rising interest rates to “pop” a bubble, cutting interest rates will save us, REALLY?

Residential property values in state capital cities in Australia fell by 1.4% in May, a sign that interest rate cuts are not boosting the real estate market.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/australasia/australia-cities-property-prices-201206056604.html

Preliminary figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics provide a disappointing update for residential construction in the March 2012 quarter, according to the Housing Industry Association, the voice of the country’s residential building industry.

The total value of residential building work done fell by 2% in the March quarter with new dwellings down by 1.4% and renovations down by a more sizeable 5.3%.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/australasia/australia-home-building-residential-201206076612.html

CHINA

Chinese authorities have no intention of reigning in stringent property market cooling measures despite calls for an easing to offset the country’s slowing economy.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development told a press conference in Beijing that the government is not planning to loosen real estate policy, and that policies targeting real estate speculation and price inflation would remain in place.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/asia/china-real-estate-buyers-201206066609.html

JP Morgans banana skin

Having benefitted from risk management failures of others such as investment bank Bear Stearns and hedge fund Amaranth, JP Morgan (JPM) appears to have made an “egregious” and “self inflicted” hedging error. The bank would have done well to reflect on John Donne’s meditation: “send not to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.”

by Satyajit Das

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/featuredcommentaryview?art_id=10668

#82 Wizard of Ozzie on 06.08.12 at 3:49 am

The reporter in that video sounds desperate. Does she have a big mortgage? So the purpose of this story was to feed the sheep. As a sheep, this is what I learned:

1. There is no bubble.
2. Rising listings and falling sales means prices remain flat.
3. If you buy a house, it could go up in value and be worth $30 million some day?

Can anyone recommend a good realtor? I want to buy 3 houses for investment.

#83 Canuck Abroad on 06.08.12 at 4:08 am

Natalie, Natalie, Natalie…you need a hobby. Here are my suggestions:
(1) Why not take a securities or investment course:
https://www.csi.ca/student/en_ca/home.xhtml
(2) Do you speak french? spanish? cantonese? Why not take some language courses.
(3) If investments and languages don’t interest you, how about cooking school? Or interior design courses?
(4) Join a gym and get healthy. Now that Lululemon’s stock just tanked and is probably on it’s way to 40, Chip Wilson needs you to buy his clothing. This will give you an excuse to do so.
(5) I particularly like travelling. There is a very big world out there to see. Sounds expensive, but it will be way less expensive than buying a house now and catching that falling knife.
(6) If you really must look at houses, I suggest you switch to mls.com and check out the prices for Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami. Then you will understand how silly prices are in Vancouver. That should cure you.

#84 Humpty Dumpty on 06.08.12 at 4:30 am

If you believe real estate is only thing doomed, someone has done more than messed with your head….

Sucker momments will be a perpetual tidal wave G.

It appears many suffer from head injuries while surfing in Tufino. Wonder if the Doc still does house calls.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C2JTomS2RU&feature=plcp

#85 Piccaso on 06.08.12 at 6:05 am

I see the street is wet, the sky is grey and she’s wearing a long coat.

#86 Mr Buyer on 06.08.12 at 6:19 am

#21 Someone on 06.07.12 at 10:19 pm
Garth, a few months ago you called anyone expecting more than a 15% RE price decline a moron… I see you are now predicting a 40+% price decline… Have you joined the ranks of morons? What gave?
………………………………….
Complete moron here expecting 15% to be the shower you take before the bloodbath.

#87 NOBODY on 06.08.12 at 6:23 am

Dear Garth…. Since January 2008 you repeatedly talk about the same things. Always. Aren’t you tired of scaring people? What do you expect? You have the same 20 or so dumb followers that are envious of folks that own homes.
They are all renters. There will be no crash nation wide.
In 3 years you will be proven wrong and look like your followers: a dummy.

I receive a few dozen of these a day, and delete most because (as you can see) they add little to our discussion. Just thought I’d remind you of the quality of mainstream opinion. — Garth

#88 maxx on 06.08.12 at 6:44 am

#5 aggie on 06.07.12 at 9:55 pm

Excellent post! Very best of luck, I hope that it all works out brilliantly for you.
May your wisdom prevail.

#89 Piccaso on 06.08.12 at 6:45 am

How Western Canada’s resort-property market went south

Fallout from U.S. housing crisis hit playgrounds in our region
By Ray Turchansky, edmontonjournal.com June 7, 2012

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Turchansky+Western+Canada+resort+property+market+went+south/6748211/story.html

#90 blase on 06.08.12 at 6:57 am

So, to summarize:

1. Slow-talking news lady from Vancouver introduces a news story about increased listings and falling sales. But then says prices aren’t coming down anytime soon.

2. Cue reporter talking asking random street people about what they think a house being built costs.

3. Reporter talks about the most expensive houses in Vancouver.

4. Reporter says benchmark prices are the same.

5. What does benchmark mean?

6. What about the falling sales and rising inventory? Not in the story.

7. What the hell was the slow-talking news desk lady going on about?

This is news?

Natalie, a fool and her money is easily parted. And then her husband gets blamed. Sound familiar? Get back to us in 2 1/2 years when you’re going through your “trial separation”.

#91 maxx on 06.08.12 at 7:02 am

#18 AprilNewwest on 06.07.12 at 10:09 pm

Absolutely…..there are self-made wealthy people out there, who, because of their high common sense quotient in matters RE, have a life with a comfort level ( have time, have all that they need and more, sleep very well and not least of all,good health which is enhanced by this comfort level) that stressed-out one percenters will never know.
Take on immovable debt and watch the quality of your days melt away.

#92 Can it be? on 06.08.12 at 7:16 am

More listings popping up daily… Also more home improvements.

#93 Regan on 06.08.12 at 7:18 am

I’m reminded of those tedious personal finance books that ask questions like “is it better to lease or buy a new car every 3 years?” and then go on for pages to do the mathematic minutia. Problem #1 – why do you need a new car every 3 years? Both of today’s write-ins have bought and sold in a very short time period, which will cost you money even in a good market. Don’t buy a home unless you plan to settle in there for a good long time, like… maybe the length of your mortgage. The amazing benefits of ownership don’t really kick in until the mortgage is paid off anyway. Wait until you’ve got all your kids, have a secure and wonderful job etc. and then buy something.

#94 timbo on 06.08.12 at 7:30 am

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/08/eurozone-crisis-germany-suffers-imports

“11.52am: The eurozone has instruments ready to use should Spain ask for help recapitalising its banks, but no such request has been made, according to the European Union.”

rinse and repeat until all the bad loans are cleared from the bank’s balance sheets…………..

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/06/07/consumer-debt-growth-slows/?mod=WSJBlog&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Feconomics%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+Real+Time+Economics+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

“Overall nonrevolving credit, which includes student credit as well as auto loans, rose $9.96 billion to $1.689 trillion during April. Meanwhile, revolving credit, which includes credit-card debt, decreased by $3.44 billion in April to $862.29 billion.”

People are putting away the credit cards and ramping up the student loans. Hope there are jobs when they graduate otherwise more of the same…………

#95 House on 06.08.12 at 7:33 am

Saed should commute, it’s the in thing. Or he could use the house as a summer home. After all Nick Cage needs 15 homes so I hear. This is what the one percent needs their high salaries for, I supposed.

#96 John on 06.08.12 at 7:34 am

Not on the boat wrote:
“The real issue is trust. We are about to witness a massive evisceration of hard working Canadians equity. The culprit, trust. Trusting parents who work with a different paradigm, trusting bankers, trusting agents, trusting media. I work hard. I have trained and practiced my skill. I am good at what I do. In turn I look to those who are practiced and trained in what they do and I trust them to do it. Well, I used to. Now I just follow the money. I look at most professionals and I ask what would benefit them the most, not me. It’s sad. It’s regressive. And this time, it’s not different.”
——————-

I think it’s very important to read the above post very closely. This post, unfortunately, is the most “Canadian” values have to offer, and it isn’t much. The biggest thing that jumps out is the irresponsibility. “I’m good at what I do, and I trust professionals and I work hard, like a lot of other hard-working Canadians”. Nice headfake eh? Translation: “I come from a multi-generational middle class fundamentalist middle class family that put the rules, personalities and institutions above people, myself and my own independent judgment.”

This person grew up on TV and newspapers and completely lost their moral compass. What’s more, there is no intention to recover it. Looking at other “professionals” cynically is a very positive start towards growing up, leaving home and forming a personal identity. But this poster thinks it’s “sad”. No, it’s not sad. You’ve been living a huge lie, and when this becomes obvious, you turn to some false 1963 “Canadian” values.

Your values are empty. You believe “working hard” or “being trained” or “being good at what I do” or being shoulder to shoulder with fictitious “hard-working
Canadians” or dealing with “other professionals” who you “trust” to “be like you” is a road map to anywhere?

Those people are just like you. They also are irresponsible and chose their respective “parent protection racket” ( following the rules as a replacement for judgment is learned in the family).

Hard-working? How? On the backs of an enslaved now collapsing communist nation…among other distant countries fueling “hard working Canadians” compulsive, decades old consumption? What arrogant nonsense.

I fully challenge what you’ve written and call BS. You’re in the boat, and continue to hammer holes into the bottom of it. It’s human. Doing it is mostly based on denial. But it IS happening, and only one person is responsible for the whole thing: YOU. Ok, maybe it’s out of control now…but isn’t it important to GET that? And build judgment?

Maybe you’d like some “professional” to be “good at what he does” and tell you what to do.

Google some bad actors from “Canada” who are “good at what they do”. Mark Carney for example. A low low level government worker, pushing for Goldman Sachs et al, perhaps himself in denial. Working hard. And not a thing Canadian about him.

The problem is NOT “out there”. There’s nothing sad about what you said. You write with the values of a boy.

I grew up in Canada. Men there are trained to be boys. And it doesn’t work. I can see this from your post, and I certainly learned the hard way from personal experience.

#97 Babs on 06.08.12 at 7:54 am

Garth,

Some days I don’t know what to believe or think? It’s so easy to fall upon articles like these and wonder what is it that I’m doing wrong? Could this article actually be true?

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/06/half-of-canadians-expect-to-be-debt-free-by-2017/

It’s easier to tell a pollster you intend paying off your debt than actually doing it. What are you doing wrong? Reading the bankrupt Financial Post. — Garth

#98 Steve on 06.08.12 at 7:55 am

#46 Observor on 06.07.12 at 11:42 pm

Let’s not confuse the financially successful with the top 1% of earners. These are not interchangeable definitions.

#99 Third Choice on 06.08.12 at 8:21 am

#4 Smoking Man

“The kids that grow up there know that the deck is loaded, and the Capitan lied, they have two choices
Be dish washer or become a gangster.”

Really Smoking Man? Only two choices? What about the friend I have who grew up in the hood of Jane and Finch, came to Canada from Jamaica and now has his own electrical contracting company? Hmmm, guess he found a third choice.

#100 Mr Buyer on 06.08.12 at 8:38 am

#76 truth hammer on 06.08.12 at 2:25 am

You will never meet a doctor who is successful in private enterprise…….they’re lucky they’ve had good mommies and daddies to put them through school…otherwise they’d have ended up giving hand jobs in the hallways of the bigger better smater faster world of enterprise.
………………………………………..
bigger better smater faster world of enterprise…Well I have heard it all now. Talk about believing your own press. If it was not so important for me to stay on task I would go a round or two with you over your utter nonsense. In some people’s estimation enterprise is nothing more than missing the entire point(ie quality of service rather than quantity of profit. pay billions for service that falls short of the mark and lags behind the curve and does not fulfill spec, that is specifications not speculation for bigger better types such as yourself). So the devastation wreaked across the continent and now around the world has been done so by these bigger better types by design? I will write that one down for future reference. As for bigger better, why don’t you wizards cure cancer or something like that. Lets just say I will not be holding my breath. Bigger better indeed, I am just not sure what exactly. More like ham fisted confidence men, obvious a mile off to most. Yet another button of mine revealed, good to know for future reference as well.

#101 Realtors in a Panic! Now they attack Garth on 06.08.12 at 8:48 am

Realtor smokingman looks like truth is driving you not only to drink but go crazy as well. The housing crash in Canada is getting so bad in vancouver the realtors must of paid big bucks to pay off the media to lie. I don’t live in Vancouver but i have family who do and one is a realtard and from what they say prices are falling around them as sales have stopped and listings increased. The worst part is in vancouver taking a HELOC’s just to survive is normal and if they sold many would have to bring a huge check. My buddy from high school in Toronto works for genworth and his division just deals with foreclosed houses in BC. I was surprised to hear about the number of people losing their homes in BC. The situation is getting real bad. Vancouver crash is heading for the GTA in a big way. No wonder realtors from all over Canada post on garth’s blog more then garth posts on his own blog as they all panic from the truth and the housing crash.

#102 Johnny D on 06.08.12 at 8:54 am

But what about Regina Saskatchewan? The media and realtors here tell us that this is the place that everyone wants to live, and therefore the house prices are justified. Enough about Vancouver and Toronto… I want to hear how great Regina is and why realestate will always be high here and never go down.

#103 Toon Town Boomer on 06.08.12 at 8:55 am

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that paticular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

#104 timbo on 06.08.12 at 8:55 am

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120608/dq120608b-eng.htm

“Exports fell to $39.1 billion, the result of a 1.9% decline in prices. The main contributors to the overall decrease were exports of industrial goods and materials, as well as machinery and equipment.”

Exports are dropping? Who is going to pay for our
ever increasing wage growth?………

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/08/us-markets-oil-idUSBRE83H17O20120608

“Oil prices fell below $98.50 on Friday, tracking declines in the euro and European shares spurred by Spain’s worsening banking crisis and after hopes of fresh global monetary stimulus were undermined by the head of the U.S. central bank .”

Without printing there is no oil speculation. Hang on Alberta, Wild Ben is still fueling the chopper…….

#105 veteran trader on 06.08.12 at 8:57 am

regarding $$$bpoe#1. This person is on glue. A complete lack of understanding and ignorance to how markets work. Pay attention to the extreme confidence as a sentiment indicator. The markets count on people like this. If this person represents anything to do with your R/E interests FIRE them…. Immediately!

#106 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.08.12 at 9:11 am

@#29 Mr Anderson :
With respect, the mans’ name is Saed, not Sade.

@ BPOE#1
More delusional ramblings from Richman. Who let you out of your cage?

As for that house on Pt Grey Rd. I rode past that ridiculous construction site a few weeks past. An absolute Monstrosity that blocks the view of the water for all his neighbors across the St.
I’m sure their REAL happy about THAT! It seems the newest “status ” symbol is to have a huge crane on your house lot for 2+ years while workers buzz about like bees. I can just hear the conversation at the Royal Van Yacht Club down the St…” MY house took two and a haaaaf yee-ahhs to build…..”

One wonders what he will sell that glass and concrete gun emplacement for in 5 – 10 years when he gets bored with it

#107 John saccy on 06.08.12 at 9:15 am

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that paticular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

A good idea actually..May be the Friday posts? Thanks

#108 Ret on 06.08.12 at 9:19 am

American BIL did the bear trap thing in Florida in 2007. Bought a 1984 ranch home in Sebring, Zillowed in 2006 for $276,000. He went all in with everything they had and got it for $215,000 in late 2007. Now worth $115,000. They spend every cent of their monthly pension checks ($2000) and have no savings.

If he drops, I expect SIL, who is now 63 and “held on” to her CDN citizenship, to show up on our doorstep with less than $100,000 in her jeans.

How much will RE drop? All we know is that it will drop. Any other questions?

#109 Bolo2k12 on 06.08.12 at 9:26 am

@ # 45 – J

It’s within the top 1%. Would you prefer if Garth said the top 0.8%?

#110 stickler on 06.08.12 at 9:28 am

@ #103 Toon Town Boomer on 06.08.12 at 8:55 am

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that particular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

>> I like it.

#111 Sebee on 06.08.12 at 9:33 am

By the way, 230K or so housing units in beautiful Mississauga, per unit occupancy there to 3.1 based on 720K population.

Take both together Say 1.1m units in Toronto plus 230K in Mississauga. 2.6M population in Toronto and 720K in Mississauga, you’ve got 1.33m units and 3.32m people – so 2.5 people per unit? Just seems a little bit low to me. Or is that about average?

#112 lilyflor on 06.08.12 at 9:33 am

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that paticular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

————————————————————–

I like the idea. Maybe work down from the larger cities?

#113 GregW, Oakville on 06.08.12 at 9:38 am

Hi #64 Nastra, Here’s an article for you or others FYI.

How to spot a sociopath – 10 red flags that could save you from being swept under the influence of a charismatic nut job.
‘The modern sociopath: A threat to us all’
http://www.naturalnews.com/036112_sociopaths_cults_influence.html

#114 Mr Buyer on 06.08.12 at 9:42 am

#96 John on 06.08.12 at 7:34 am
This post, unfortunately, is the most “Canadian” values have to offer, irresponsibility. Translation: “I come from a multi-generational middle class fundamentalist middle class family that put the rules, personalities and institutions above people, myself and my own independent judgment.”
Looking at other “professionals” cynically is a very positive start towards growing up, leaving home and forming a personal identity.
Your values are empty. You believe “working hard” or “being trained” or “being good at what I do” or being shoulder to shoulder with fictitious “hard-working
Canadians” or dealing with “other professionals” who you “trust” to “be like you” is a road map to anywhere?
They also are irresponsible and chose their respective “parent protection racket” ( following the rules as a replacement for judgment is learned in the family).
Hard-working? How? On the backs of an enslaved now collapsing communist nation…among other distant countries fueling “hard working Canadians” compulsive, decades old consumption? What arrogant nonsense.
It’s human. Doing it is mostly based on denial. But it IS happening, and only one person is responsible for the whole thing: YOU. Ok, maybe it’s out of control now…but isn’t it important to GET that? And build judgment?
Maybe you’d like some “professional” to be “good at what he does” and tell you what to do.
The problem is NOT “out there”. There’s nothing sad about what you said. You write with the values of a boy.
I grew up in Canada. Men there are trained to be boys.
…………………………………………………………….
Lets see, to sum up. Canadians are irresponsible layabouts that created the largest real estate bubble in history. Nice head fake yourself…lets try another translation on for size…Bubble propagators and a host of accomplices inflated housing prices to a level at which utter Chaos is a potential out come and in true psychopathic form blame the devastation upon the lesser mortals foolish enough to partake in the feast. All this of course after decades of moving the peons well paying jobs out of the country while telling said peons it is good for you. Yet another know it all that obviously has not played on a championship hockey team. In your contempt for Canadians you have developed some blinders that are not serving you well. Do not think for one minute your drivel permits professionals to act unethically. It is just such contempt for fellow countrymen that permits rampant unaccountability (not a real word for now). Your world of dog eat dog is well suited to those great unwashed layabouts. If they do not at least see the law as being upheld you will come to see a world with values that will quickly cause to wish for 1963 Canada. Living on the backs of Communist countries, give me a break.

#115 earlybird on 06.08.12 at 9:45 am

#Nobody (87) Always good to see a contrarian view….housing crash or not, its all about how people choose to spend their time. I look at a SFH and all I see is WORK..working to pay the debt and interest, work to fix and reno, work to maintain, work to shovel and mow, work to fix this, change that, add this and that…work work work! My little sweet rental (condo), cost the same as just the utilities and property tax on an SFH!! Best part yet, my cash flows from sale of my home, pays most of my monthly expenses! Work has become optional…isn’t that the goal?!?! Even a paid off home doesnt generate cash….long time owners have a rare opportunity to cash in, and cut to the chase…Freedom..A big YES!! Envious….not even a little…

#116 The American on 06.08.12 at 9:48 am

In the U.S. in 2011, if you earned more than $532,613 (which makes for an Adjusted Gross Income of $380,354), you were in the top 1% of income earners. That’s 1.4 Million Americans making a living and earning at least a half a mil a year. Within the top 1% in the U.S., over 240,000 people earned $1,000,000 or more. I know several of these people, in fact. Of my circle of friends, about 60% fell within this group.

However, no matter how much money these people earn, their incomes could not fix “stupid.” Most of them were consuming real estate at ridiculous prices at peak of market a few years ago. Now, many of them are sitting on top of multiple homes that have lost from 25%-55% of their original values, depending on the location. Yes, even people within this top 1% of income earners feel the pain (and boy, do they ever bitch about it) as nearly all of them now wished they had acted more conservatively with their funds instead of salivating over dirt, sticks, and some sheetrock.

The weight of the taxes, maintenance, utilities, home owners dues, small mortgages and other ancillary expenses quickly add up. The homes have little or no mortgages on them, relative to the original purchase price (which has collapsed, mind you). But on average, each of these needless and pointless homes is costing about $58,000/year in expenses in after-tax dollars. That may not sound like much when you are earning that kind of money as the top 1%. But, what if you own two of these homes? Or three? Or, even four? It quickly gets out of control.

I’ve asked them why they feel they needed such elaborate homes, and why they feel they needed so many of them. What is interesting is their response… Nearly all of them said at peak of market it felt “right” to do it. They felt nearly unstoppable. They also understood that should values decline, they had a balanced enough portfolio to offset losses – losses of which they could never have anticipated to exceed maybe 15%. Boy, were they in for a shock. Today, however, they look back on the situation and recognize they too were caught up in the frenzy of house horniness and cannot find any logical reason for their actions. In fact, they all regret the decisions they made. They even stated they felt they were somehow smarter than the average Joe at the time, but the correction has greatly humbled their spirits.

I can understand having a primary residence and perhaps a modest vacation home somewhere, but why must a person need multiple luxury/palatial pads? I don’t feel sorry for “stupid.”

#117 B on 06.08.12 at 9:58 am

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth
—————————————-
I have no idea how to estimate the extent to which the Van/TO markets will affect my local market (Ottawa). Would be interested to hear your take, and on some of the local factors as well (i.e. PS job cuts).

#118 Joe_blown_away_by_high _housing_costs on 06.08.12 at 10:00 am

I am glad Garth posted that video from Global. Now people in the rest of Canada can see what propaganda bull $hit passes as “news” in Vancouver. That clip is par for the course for Global. I turn to Global not to get the latest news. Rather I watch Global in order to catch the latest propaganda our corporate masters want us to believe. This sort of drivel is what I expect from Global, CTV and the Vancouver Sun. And when the crash is in full swing next year, they’ll blame the newly elected NDP government in BC.

#119 The American on 06.08.12 at 10:01 am

One good thing that has come of the correction is the fact that Americans have become more frugal, they’ve begun paying attention again to their investment portfolios, they have a significantly greater savings rate than preceding the peak of the real estate lust, and their focus has shifted from mass consumption to dutiful downsizing. And now, the U.S. debt load is falling at its fastest pace since the 1950s.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-debt-load-falling-fastest-040045522.html

Canada will also get to this point, but it isn’t going to happen overnight. The process is cumbersome, lengthy, and painful. This is almost like a set science (although it isn’t). You can bank on 5-6 years before Canada comfortably finds the bottom of the market and somewhat good news begins to trickle (although, I have to admit your government-backed/bought media will probably be spewing happy-rainbow-fun-times-bubblegum-pop bullshit at the masses as it has for the past 7 years).

Wait – DO NOT BUY ANOTHER STICK OF REAL ESTATE. De-leverage. Focus on investment. Rebuild.

#120 The American on 06.08.12 at 10:02 am

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

I SUPPORT THIS IDEA! What the f*ck do I know, though?

#121 Steven Rowlandson on 06.08.12 at 10:03 am

This is now house lusty couples and naive surgeons get sucked in. And cleaned out. Then they join the other 99%.

I think you will find that a big chunk of the 99% think they live in Canada and that living in Canada is a privilege. Mere delusions of grandure and financial power. They live in a country where most of the real estate is priced for the 1% and most people who do skilled and unskilled work get paid between ten and twenty bucks an hour and they are probably begrudged even that much. Why would any one consider it to be a privilege to live in canada unless they were filthy stinking rich to start with or working for the government? Is getting paid 10 or 20 bucks an hour with variable hours and being expected to pay a quarter million for the cheapest house near your job a privilege? Some how I doubt it. It is a crappy deal!
Frankly I think too many Canadians have gone cuckoo after joining the real estate cult and drinking the kool aid. But what the hell do I know after watching the situation for 45 years, getting underpaid and never being able to live like my parents? I know some of you are thinking that I am poor because I am stupid, or that I am conservative or a silver and gold investor and by virtue of that am some kind of an idiot. This line of thinking is foolish. Believe it or not I am infact a thinker or if you like a scientist type but with out the university wall paper so far. When it comes to being a conservative I make the alleged conservative politicians look like liberals and communists.
Which is pretty easy because that is precisely what they are. Pinko commie politicians that spend too much, make too many bad laws and are largely the cause of the mess Canada is in. Being a PM investor if done right is not financial foolishness it is wise especially in the light of what is going on in the world.
What will you have when the fiat money scam and government debt bubble pops and is found to be worthless? An account full of promises to pay nothing to you? When governments and their central banks get themselves in trouble due to excessive debt and promises to spend and their ability to borrow is limited they print and they print untill you need a wheel barrow full of cash to buy a double, double at tim hortens and guess what ? No inflation adjusted pay raises for you!
Yes you canadians can have a zimbabwe moment…
Likely when the americans have theirs after they lose credibility with the bond market, their creditors and interest rates rise globally to double digit rates. Then they will print to pay the interest and the deficit. Then paper will burn and of course there will be no money for real estate and may be not even for food, clothes or any thing else as the prices soar out of sight and wages stagnate and jobs disappear. The end game usually involves knocking 3 to 6 zeros off the money supply further wiping out savings and starting over with no government debt and a very small money supply. What will you have when that happens? Creditors chasing you for money you don’t have and can’t earn?
Hyper inflation ends with severe deflation. Hyperinflation is a politically motivated easy way out for irresponsible governments that hit the wall and won’t limit their spending and pay down debt. It starts out as a easy way to satisfy the needs of government and ends up ruining everyone not prepared for it.
With over a trillion dollars worth of federal and provincial debt in canada do you think your favorite politicians have the stomach to tell the boomers and other politically correct special interests that for the good of the country they have to get less or get nothing from the treasury? If there are any politicians so inclined they will not have much influence for very long if at all. Most people don’t want to believe or accept that there must be limits to government and government spending. That is why when push comes to shove the powers that be will print untill cash as you all know it buys nothing.

#122 mike on 06.08.12 at 10:08 am

It looks like the bidding wars came to an end, or close to an end North of Toronto in Richmond Hill
this property listed at 429900 http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11954697&PidKey=536638967
now drop the price to 409900 http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_PM.asp?link_no=219902240.076500&t=p&fm=M
………glad to see that!

#123 disciple on 06.08.12 at 10:09 am

#58 Gunboat… We have to look at what the promise to pay actually is. It’s a promise to labour with the hope of building a better mouse trap (technology). The scam is this… now pay attention… the financial parasites are able to separate the promise to labour from the hope of better technology, such that those who are labouring are not able to either use the technology or have the time or resources to develop their own. Thus kicks in the mind control factor. If the masses simply stopped and understood that everything is indeed free of what we call money or a promise to pay, the technological leaps would come fast and hard…

Mind you, the financial parasites have a science department of their own and keep their secrets hidden (Vatican has its own Observatory, with the Vatican being the modern day Roman Tax collectors, for example), and so you can see it’s not about money, it’s about control.

Speaking of the Vatican. Would a billion Catholics feel like suckers if and when they find out that John Paul was just an actor? http://tinyurl.com/7t6xk97

#124 John G. Young on 06.08.12 at 10:10 am

#87 NOBODY on 06.08.12 at 6:23 am

“Dear Garth…. Since January 2008 you repeatedly talk about the same things. Always. Aren’t you tired of scaring people? What do you expect? You have the same 20 or so dumb followers that are envious of folks that own homes.
They are all renters. There will be no crash nation wide.
In 3 years you will be proven wrong and look like your followers: a dummy.

I receive a few dozen of these a day, and delete most because (as you can see) they add little to our discussion. Just thought I’d remind you of the quality of mainstream opinion. — Garth”

A few dozen a DAY?!?
Garth, you have my sympathy — and admiration.
Also, ( want to say that I continue to be surprised by the intelligence, clarity, and wit of many who post here (trolls notwithstanding). Every day, I find it’s worth the time to read through the comments, which I think sets this blog apart from many others; now we know that that is in part because of your continuing efforts to take out the trash.

Thanks again,

John

#125 45north on 06.08.12 at 10:11 am

ozy: RE segregation now evident in GTA

you might as well be in Australia. What about specific parts of the GTA? Woodbridge, the Beaches, Roncesvalles?

#126 Frank le skank on 06.08.12 at 10:13 am

#21 Someone on 06.07.12 at 10:19 pm
From my understanding, Garth has been indicating that 15% would be the initial fall. I’ve only been reading this blog for a few months, and I think this is the first time I’ve seen Garth write about a POTENTIAL decline of 40%.

#25 Complete Fraud on 06.07.12 at 10:25 pm
No matter how bad things get, government, corporations or special interests groups will always structure their sentences in an ambiguously optimistic way.Regarding “Benchmark prices remain the same”, He doesn’t state how this benchmark was attained. Carnie is also very slick when it comes to being ambiguously optimistic with his answers. That’s part of earning the big bucks and forwarding the agenda.

#44 50% correction predictor on 06.07.12 at 11:35 pm
Excluding your name, you sound like a RE agent… maybe you should STFU. Not everyone is comfortable being a slime bag.

#127 John G. Young on 06.08.12 at 10:13 am

#103 Toon Town Boomer on 06.08.12 at 8:55 am

Great idea.

#128 Buy Curious on 06.08.12 at 10:15 am

Garth, baby, I don’t know how you put up with it. The only reason why prices are remaining high is because people are stubborn and believe that their properties are worth an insane amount of money. Watch when people are forced to sell their house when they lose their job, get really old or get a divorce. The global economy is slowing down, baby boomers are getting older by the day (obviously) and one out of two marriages end in divorce. Keep up the good work, my man.

#129 Realtors in a Panic! Now they attack Garth on 06.08.12 at 10:20 am

Did anyone catch the bankers or analyst on BNN who said to sell ALL Canadian banks? I caught part of it but the housing bubble was given as a reason for the selling. He talked about construction jobs being to much of an employment % and that no country can have a soft landing.

#130 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.08.12 at 10:33 am

@ #45 J
Shouldn’t there be 341,087 in the top 1% of 34,108,752 Canadians?

275,000 Adults (with income) in the Top 1%.

Babies aren’t included in the income numbers.

#131 Karie on 06.08.12 at 10:40 am

98 – Steve
Let’s not confuse the financially successful with the top 1% of earners. These are not interchangeable definitions.

This is so true. Just because you have a great profession and are very good at it, does not mean you are financially savvy.
—–
The news reports things that are happening or have already happened. Only people I see making strong personal predictions in their fields are Garth and Don Cherry.

I think it’s fantastic that Chip is building a dream house. It’s his money – he made a huge success mainly selling women’s yoga outfits. No one needs 12 bathrooms or 12 Coach purses or 12 lulu outfits or whatever – you get to make your own decisions about how you want to spend your own money! Garth says be diversified, that doesn’t mean you can’t build a mansion if you have the money! Chip is also a big giver that contributes at ton to children in Africa.

#132 Doug in London on 06.08.12 at 10:45 am

@87 by NOBODY;
If you frequent this sad blog as I do, you’ll notice Garth keeps saying the same things over and over and over and over and over again about a coming correction. So why does he keep saying the same things over and over…..again? Because from the comments I see on this blog, many people still don’t get it. This time last year real estate in Canada (especially in Vancouver), Australia, and China were all going up and bucking the world trend. Now, these places, with the exception of Toronto area, are all dropping. Despite all that, some people in the Toronto area think it will buck the trend forever and ever. Hey, we’re different, we’re a world class city or other excuses. Some people just don’t get the idea of real estate being cyclical and will eventually return to the long term average, although it will likely undershoot first as is happening now in many U.S. cities. So that’s why Garth sounds like that Monty Python episode that says: I’m sorry I scratched your record, I’m sorry I scratched your record…..and so on.

#133 mousey on 06.08.12 at 10:52 am

To all posters sitting on sale proceeds, confused and unsure of what to do. Go on a road trip. By a van, or by a plane ticket and a map and just go. Take you best friend, your brother, sister, nephew or whomever. Go and expand your horizons buddy! Don’t sit and stew and look backwards or ruminate. Take a little bit of the cash that you’ve been lucky enough to accumulate and do something for your brain and your soul. I’ll look forward to the travel logs as they pour in.

On Friday location updates from boots on the ground….great idea. First post from Van West Kerrisdale. Listings up, still have dozers on every second block from tear downs bought in last year. No talk of bubble bursting, but gee, lots of new listings.

#134 NoName on 06.08.12 at 11:05 am

#83 Canuck Abroad on 06.08.12 at 4:08 am

1)
Every [email protected] have one of those hanging on the wall… in my humble opinion it csi course is USELESS, unless you want to work for the bank.
2)
Forget about languages, English fine around the world, unless you will travel to 3rd world country.
3)
Dont do anything that could messed up your manicure, stay away from sharp and abrasive objects, hire a house keeper (make sure She is uglier that you are)

4)
Dont join a gym, stay healthy anyway its good for you. Buy elliptical machine and few weights, some DVD or and connect your laptop to flat screen tv and let youtube do the magic
http://www.youtube.com/user/charliejames1975
or
http://www.youtube.com/user/ridgelinefitness

5)
If you travel to Europe RENT A CAR, in Asia arrange with some of your “foreign” friends cousins, brother or sister
show you around, you will experience lot more that (travelling with Canada3000) -laugh now –

6)
Replace word HOUSE with word family, house is place where the families are.

7)
Please come to the realisations that you have what 99% dream of..

8)
I’ll cut the CЯAP and You go and buy that big house you WANT.

#135 Cow Man on 06.08.12 at 11:05 am

# 87 NOBODY

” A watched kettle never boils. A watched phone never rings”. Maybe a watched bubble never bursts! Why are you so bitter? Garth insightfully writes an interesting informative blog, accompanied by books for purchase, about “balance”. If you aren’t interested move on.

#136 truth hammer on 06.08.12 at 11:06 am

DELETED

#137 Doug in London on 06.08.12 at 11:08 am

@mousey, post #133:
That’s the best advice I’ve heard in a long time!

#138 NoName on 06.08.12 at 11:09 am

I should siriusly consider some ESL course…

#139 J in Calgary on 06.08.12 at 11:12 am

@103

Yes there is support to hear about more locations. My feeling is that we always talk about Van City and that other place in Ontario.

#140 Andthen on 06.08.12 at 11:12 am

The bank talked my friend out of a 20% down payment so he would qualify for CMHC and would not have to ‘pay more’ to be insured,
The banks will not send anyone to appraise the house unless you don’t use the CMHC, then they want to make sure the house is worth it, otherwise they don’t care.
These bankers should be thrown in Jail.
Houses are down 15-20% in the Kootenays and noone “brags” anymore.

#141 disciple on 06.08.12 at 11:14 am

On Sirius: I was listening to the Elvis channel, and I thought this song should be the theme song for the waning of the Great Canadian RE Carn-evil:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tJbWbrwTqU

#142 Sotiri on 06.08.12 at 11:20 am

#87 NOBODY on 06.08.12 at 6:23 am
Dear Garth…. Since January 2008 you repeatedly talk about the same things. Always. Aren’t you tired of scaring people? What do you expect? You have the same 20 or so dumb followers that are envious of folks that own homes.
They are all renters. There will be no crash nation wide.
In 3 years you will be proven wrong and look like your followers: a dummy.

I receive a few dozen of these a day, and delete most because (as you can see) they add little to our discussion. Just thought I’d remind you of the quality of mainstream opinion. — Garth
———————————————————-
Garth “First they ignore you, then they mock you, then they fight you, then you win.”
Apparently we are in the “they fight you” moment so what is next? ….Exactly

#143 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.08.12 at 11:31 am

I like toon town boomers idea. Don’t forget the smaller areas though, van and TO have been discussed a lot. (and there’s more to the OK than Kelowna hint hint ;-) Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! -feeling that ‘prices are falling buy now before it’s too late b/c if i don’t I’ll never be able to have a home’ emotion so strongly now. I need some serious saving. That or a good deal.

#144 Suede on 06.08.12 at 11:48 am

While I disagree with Rennie on a lot of things he says, because he’s usually in a conflict of interest, this articles reasonates some truth.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/land-rich-boomers-buying-nests-for-their-young/article4226095/

Boomer parents give hearty down payments to their kids. Kids buy property with moral hazard. I would guesstimate 3/4 of the people at my Strata AGM (maybe 100 attendees) in Burnaby were in this position and in the 25-35 age bracket.

“Why do you want to be elected to strata council?”
“My husband and I plunked our savings into our unit and we want to do our best to protect our investment, so i want to be involved”
(This sentence was repeated by half of the nominees)

I like keeners.

#145 Canuck Abroad on 06.08.12 at 11:54 am

#134 NoName
1)Every [email protected] have one of those hanging on the wall… in my humble opinion it csi course is USELESS, unless you want to work for the bank.

Yeah, totally agree with that. Such a course is really only the bare minimum and only allows you to spot when someone ([email protected]) is trying to play you / sell you crap.

#146 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.08.12 at 11:57 am

Yep, need help seriously. I’m starting the pre-approval process today and am looking(mainly)/shopping in the N okanagan. Doesnt it make sense to buy b/c if i dont i’ll still be shelling out 700 p/m anyway. That’s almost 34,000 $ on rent in 4 years. But, i can see how a house there could drop that much in one year. The goal is cash purchase, small, if any mtge. Oh god help me i want a house so f’g bad.

#147 Bailing in BC on 06.08.12 at 12:16 pm

#50 Frustrated Kiwi

Hey Kiwi, not only will you be tolerated you will be welcomed! Keep it coming.

#148 Bailing in BC on 06.08.12 at 12:23 pm

#76 truth hammer

Dumb Doctor Deals!

#149 House Owner on 06.08.12 at 12:35 pm

#87 NOBODY

I cannot speak for everyone on this blog but your belief that everyone here is a jealous renter is plainly ludicrous. You sound like DA who has made these same allegations. I have been mortgage free for over 20 years and own several properties outright in the GTA. What the able writer of this blog is trying to show the clueless masses is that when you take on excessive debt to fund a home, you will never, never, ever, ever be able to accumulate capital. Home buying is fine if you can paid it off quickly and then start to build your capital base. I was mortgage free at the tender age of 29 and have never looked back. I was able to do this because I bought at non bubble levels in the GTA. If I had bought at today’s current bubble levels I would never, ever have been mortgage free at 29. The point Garth is trying to make is simple. At these current levels, housing in cities like Toronto and GTA are at wealth destroying levels if you load yourself up with debt to buy. The principles Garth teaches are time tested methods of accumulating wealth. This is the service he is providing free of charge in addition to being a very funny and witty writer. Many, many Canadians need this drilled through their craniums and the sad state of financial affairs many Canadians find themselves is proof that the message needs to be continually hammered home.

#150 Aussie Roy on 06.08.12 at 12:39 pm

Toon Town Boomer on 06.08.12 at 8:55 am
Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that paticular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth
………………………………………………………………………..

Sure.

Garth how about an introduction first, some simple historic indicators that anyone can use to gauge where their local market is compared to a historical norm.

Like, prices expressed as a multiple of annual salary, historic versus current. Rental yield on purchase price, historic versus current etc.

Give a man a fish, he is ok for a day, teach him to fish he’s educated. Once you know the basics it’s not too hard to work out what markets are bubbled and which ones aren’t. For those who might take up this approach, you can always check your results by talking to the market participants. The more they are like BPOE, the more you can be sure, yep, it’s a mania.

#151 Daisy Mae on 06.08.12 at 1:16 pm

Phil Venoit, representing Vancouver Island for the B.C. and Yukon Territory Building Trades Council, said about 40 potential Vancouver Island multifamily developments are on drafting tables right now. “We haven’t seen this sort of tempo since 2007-2008,” prior to the financial crisis.

**********************

“….prior to the financial crisis…”

Hmmm…is he listening to himself?

#152 2centsCanadian on 06.08.12 at 1:17 pm

Beware of dept, beware of sales people, beware of absorbing others dreams, beware of keeping up with the Jones-es. Learn, understand and trust the math in everything you do. Einstein said that goals are important … but they should never be people or things. Have fun, DO MORE OF WHAT MAKES YOU HAPPY and live within your means, or else …….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZG2ChA6g_Y

PS … never wear polyester on the hamster wheel of life : )

#153 Mister Obvious on 06.08.12 at 1:18 pm

I envision a day in Vancouver when the median house price is 10 million, sales are exactly zero and months of inventory is infinite. A city where absolutely everyone is waiting indefinitely to “get their price”.

Call me odd, but thinking about boundary conditions is somehow comforting to me.

#154 jess on 06.08.12 at 1:32 pm

“meat glue” -transglutaminase is an enzyme made by the fermentation of bacteria and added to meat pieces to make them stick together.

Efficiency! through tech
“Why do they need to glue meat together?”

It’s so the industry can take cheap chunks of beef and form them into what appears to be a pricey steak.

By liberally dusting meat pieces with transglutaminase powder, squishing them into filet mignon-shaped molds, adding a bit of pressure to bond the pieces and chilling them — four-bucks-a-pound stew meat looks like a $25-a-pound filet mignon

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/9626-meat-glue-for-dinner

#155 Trailer Park Boys on 06.08.12 at 1:45 pm

Re MD’s…

Gotta remember…..
Once you get your MD degree..amazing metamorphosis occurs.

Other portions of the brain create new neural pathways to more primitive portions of the brain.

aka an MD (and spouse) also knows everything about carpentry, plumbing, wiring,drywall…NFL/NHL coaching …..Real Estate…Stock Market….ask any builder or renovator..it is quite an amazing natural phenomenon !

#156 Ty on 06.08.12 at 1:52 pm

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that paticular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

————————-

Yes – Winnipeg please.

#157 TRT on 06.08.12 at 1:54 pm

IN New Delhi, one of the largest cities in the world, RE prices went up 33% in one year!!!

and, No mortgages and also interest rates well over 6% !!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/07/worlds-hottest-housing-markets_n_1578493.html?ref=canada#s=1068008

Population 12,259,230. World-class. Like Saskatoon! — Garth

Here’s a link for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity

By the type of reasoning you’re using, Calgary and Edmonton are each twice the size of Vancouver.

#158 smileyone on 06.08.12 at 2:17 pm

I’m gonna burn all my lulu gear tonight. Craziness!

#159 Harlee on 06.08.12 at 2:27 pm

I was interested in Aggie’s post #82 on ‘The precipice’ blog. Good to hear that she’s getting it togeather and moving forward.
I would like to hear more about what’s happening in Quebec and Nova Scotia regarding housing. Also,what is happening these days in northern BC with employment and real estate. The ‘GreatFool’ doesn’t seem to get many posters from these areas .

#160 disciple on 06.08.12 at 2:30 pm

This is a shout out to Utopia… How’s Kenya this time of year?

#161 Devore on 06.08.12 at 2:32 pm

http://i47.tinypic.com/2i6af6.gif

US national house price index from Shiller. There seems to be a floor around the 110 mark that all previous bubbles oscillate around at the bottom. I wonder if Canada’s looks anything similar, or is it different here?

#162 a fan on 06.08.12 at 2:35 pm

Garth – I’d support a week of blog postings where you would look at specific areas. I’d be interested in your views on Winnipeg. Thank you.

#163 Zhorgon on 06.08.12 at 2:42 pm

For you folks asking for Saskatchewan information, this realtor actually posts weekly Saskatoon data on his blog. You can watch the (extremely slow) train wreck live. The wreck is so slow, there does not appear to be much of a pop happening yet.

http://teamfisher.com/saskatoon-real-estate-week-in-review-may-27-june-2-2012/

#164 $$$BPOE#1 on 06.08.12 at 2:44 pm

Crane Envy. What is it? The latest trend in BPOE. Ya gotta have a crane to build your house or you represent nothing. Cranes are hip. Get cool. Buy some land in BPOE and get a crane and start building. Crane’s are spouting up everywhere. Love It

#165 Zhorgon on 06.08.12 at 2:46 pm

I too am tiring of hearing only about Van and TO. Can we give them a rest a couple days a week.

#166 Chris on 06.08.12 at 2:49 pm

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

Yes! The whole reason I read the reader comments is to try and get some first hand accounts of what is going on around Canada (and the world’s) RE market right now. I want to know if ppl in X location are having difficulty selling a home, or if someones neighbor has dropped their price 4x in the last 3 months now. So, I sift through all the BS “Furst’s!” and rants about gold and conspiracy theory’s and all kinds of other garbage to read maybe a few dozen a day relevant and interesting comments!

That being said – Saskatoon right now is pretty stable, and continues to be for the last 18 months.

#167 jess on 06.08.12 at 2:50 pm

U.S. aims at five EU tax evasion deals this month Reuters Jun 4 – Update on FATCA. “The U.S. Treasury Department aims to complete agreements with five EU countries by the end of June to crack down on American tax evasion, and cooperation with more countries should be announced soon.”

Enacted by the U.S. Congress, FATCA is intended to help the IRS gather information about Americans’ accounts with more than $50,000 in assets in foreign banks and other institutions.

Scheduled to take effect in 2013, the new law as drafted calls for banks and financial institutions worldwide to gather the information and directly disclose it to the IRS.

The work with the five EU countries aims to ease the burdens FATCA has imposed on banks and financial institutions that have complained about costs and legal issues.

In February Treasury said that under a reciprocating agreement, the United States would collect and share information with the five participating EU countries about accounts held by their citizens in U.S. financial institutions.

Noticeably absent from the new framework then were major international banking nations such as Canada, Switzerland and the Netherlands, not to mention tax haven jurisdictions such as Ireland, the Cayman Islands and Bermuda.

#168 Devore on 06.08.12 at 2:57 pm

#63 ozy – RE segragation started GTA

Don’t say u were not warned. All included.

If you write all that again, in English this time, I’ll consider myself… warned.

#169 Rook on 06.08.12 at 2:57 pm

#103 Toon Town Boomer on 06.08.12 at 8:55 am

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations?

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

Yes. Builders are turning every green spot into condo boxes or town houses here in Gatineau. I would be interested to know your thoughts on the Ottawa/Gatineau RE.

#170 Hell in a Handbasket on 06.08.12 at 2:58 pm

From Yesterday #194 Westernman:

You said:

2CentsCdn @ # 15,
You nailed it right on the head… you can tell you spoke truthfully by all the high – pitched whining from the wealth re-distributing, politically correct Socialists on this blog…
Of course these parasites are most certainly on the government handout wagon so they see nothing at all immoral having the government stealing from the productive and handing it out to their lazy asses…
Of course this eventually comes to an end as the society either runs out of producers to carry these anchors or the productive simply leave or find ways to hide their money…

Elizabeth Warren said:

There is nobody in this country who got rich on their own. Nobody. You built a factory out there – good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory… Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea – God bless! Keep a hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.

I say:
Think about that the next time you go off ranting about the poor and how they suck.

#171 Blacksheep on 06.08.12 at 3:00 pm

National Bank Financials ( David L.) say’s sell all Canadian banks do to housing bubble on BNN this morning.

take care
Blacksheep

NBF did not say that. He’s one financial guy. From Vancouver, which explains his challenges. — Garth

#172 Canadian Watchdog on 06.08.12 at 3:04 pm

CMHC Renovations and Home Purchase Report – Annual Data http://postimage.org/image/57ic2kz8j/

#173 Arshes on 06.08.12 at 3:07 pm

#156 Ty on 06.08.12 at 1:52 pm Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations? Posters can comment what they hear & know about that paticular market area? Please include Saskatoon as one of the areas as I want to learn more about what’s happening here as well. Thanks for all your daily post.

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

————————-

Yes – Winnipeg please.
——————————————————–

Google Saskachewan / Saskatoon / Winnipeg/ Maitoba Real Estate bubble, you should be able to find a few blogs out there.

#174 TaxHaven on 06.08.12 at 3:07 pm

I was wondering WTF “Lululemon” was…

They’ll never make much off me. I only buy potatoes, carrots and on-sale chicken…

As the real productivity of Canadians slumps ever lower, the only way to succeed in business is not to produce wealth but to aggressively market frilly stuff to high-consuming people who don’t really need it and must pay for it with money they probably don’t really have…

The CBC is reduced to accepting TV ads for weight loss exercise machines and geriatric medicines…!

And retailers are getting very desperate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/retailers-pull-out-all-stops-to-entice-premium-customers/article4227804/

#175 Devore on 06.08.12 at 3:15 pm

#83 Canuck Abroad

(6) If you really must look at houses, I suggest you switch to mls.com and check out the prices for Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami. Then you will understand how silly prices are in Vancouver. That should cure you.

For the price of a Vancouver tear down you can buy a decent place in Beverly Hills. Beverly effin Hills! You could print up business cards with your address on them, and hand them out to family and friends who bought a Vancouver special and need to have some strangers living in the basement to make ends meet.

#176 daystar on 06.08.12 at 3:21 pm

Lets see, who do we have here, Saed the surgeon, one percenter, soliciting advice here at greater fool. A man who went through 8 to 10 years of school learning to be confident enough to try not to slice, dice, shive, shank or drug anyone to death (in practice) in a brightly lit room filled with a half a dozen or so likewise pooled talents in a quest to avoid lawsuits and save lives? I’m in!

Simple avice, Saed. The market has topped. Buy in now and you will face sure loss for what… ownership status? That makes so sense to me, not in my own paradigm anyway unless it generates gains. Thats it in a nutshell, Saed. All investments need to generate some kind of gain so why would you buy into the most price bubbled city in the western world?

Buy low, sell high. You might have to wait a few years or more for that true bottom, but it will hit Vancouver at some point (CMHC is 33 billion away from its credit peak lets hope) and then its over. Listings have already exploded, rent for the next few years and for God’s sakes, get yourself a good FP! You more than anyone need some schooling in wealth preservation since your life has been absorbed elsewhere. Get a good Financial Planner (take your time with that one btw, some are much better than others) and look at the blueprint. Investing in a balanced, diversified portfolio when market index’s are down will prove you a winner in more ways than one.

Anyone with suggestions on this? Where to go for a good FP in Van?

#177 bubble head on 06.08.12 at 3:26 pm

there were several underlying weaknesses in the Statistics Canada report.

The main negative was that there were 15,600 fewer employees last month than in April, and the private sector shed 22,500 workers. As well, the number of new part-time workers outnumbered full-time by four to one.
Those numbers were mitigated by a rise of 23,300 in the self-employment category, which is usually a sign of labour market weakness. As well, government hiring rose by 6,900.

#178 bubble head on 06.08.12 at 3:27 pm

one more thing

Ontario the biggest decline — 18,700.

#179 Derek R on 06.08.12 at 3:34 pm

#50 Frustrated Kiwi on 06.07.12 at 11:52 pm wrote:
Since the Ozzies that post here are tolerated, hopefully kiwis are OK too.

Tolerated? Ha! You guys run Alberta’s ski industry. Don’t know what we’d do without you.

#180 TakingResponsibility on 06.08.12 at 3:36 pm

Interesting how that brand [lulu symbol] marketing works.
Back in the day, the lulu brand meant quality and longevity as the garments were produced in Canada and fabric was controlled.
Now….third parties [China and Taiwan] produce fabric and garments.
Cheap throw-away clothing priced high and all made in China.
I don’t get why anyone would covet the clothing anymore.

#181 Westernman on 06.08.12 at 3:38 pm

Johnny D @ # 102,
You are kidding, right? Regina? -40 and three feet of snow blowing at 40 mph for 6 months of the year, crime ridden dump of a mere 168,000 smack dab in the middle of godforsaken Sask.???
I have news for you, when the RE collapse REALLY starts to gather momentum in this country ( and it most surely will ) Regina will plummet like a dead seagull, and it will be GRIM…
A gulag in Siberia will look better than Regina then…

#182 daystar on 06.08.12 at 3:43 pm

#76 truth hammer on 06.08.12 at 2:25 am

I got nothing out of that. What were you doing last night so late to waste perfectly good periods like that?

#5 aggie on 06.07.12 at 9:55 pm

Common sense. Follow your gut. Whats its saying? The decision has to generate gains, it has to pay for itself and if it can’t, it doesn’t make sense or feel right. The numbers have to make sense. Well said.

#183 Bottoms_Up on 06.08.12 at 3:44 pm

#45 J on 06.07.12 at 11:36 pm
———————————
I would think there’s not 34.1 million employed Canadians….

#184 bill on 06.08.12 at 3:44 pm

rare shot of baby bpoe hatching dont stand to close eh? the little buggers can really jump .

http://www.imgbase.info/images/safe-wallpapers/tv_movies/aliens/16752_aliens_xenomorph_alien.jpg

#185 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 06.08.12 at 3:51 pm

REVERSION TO MEAN

So someone rich is building another expensive house on Point Grey Road, or Belmont or wherever.

It’s always been thus in any and all economic conditions in Vancouver (and in other places).

The rich are insulated from everything which is why they’re rich. Ever been thus.

The middle class (the working classes hopped up on other peoples’ money) eventually THINKS it’s immune from all of this economic crash ‘n’ burn silliness.

But they’re not because the definition of a modern middle class arrangement is the need and ability to borrow the difference between what the pay cheque brings in and what is costs to live “like the rich do.”

Many still don’t understand, just like our central bankers, that one cannot borrow one’s way back to prosperity after such a great fall, aka 2008.

Therefore when things (asset values) head south so does the so-called middle class. And BTW entire countries do too!

They just shuffle off the cliff and into history to become the objects of classroom academic derision and dissection for the “edification” of up and coming economists and market analysts, an industry which ALSO seems to be in a bubble.

And the rich continue to build on Point Grey Road and Belmont. And Mr. Muir continues to warble, which doesn’t matter because he has zero control over anything there; and the beat goes on!

#186 Yanz on 06.08.12 at 3:59 pm

Garth, please do a blog entry about SK !! Things here are waayy to crazy man!

#187 Bottoms_Up on 06.08.12 at 4:01 pm

#87 NOBODY on 06.08.12 at 6:23 am
—————————————
You called yourself by the right name: “Nobody”.

Here are the things wrong with your post (follows).

“Dear Garth…. Since January 2008 you repeatedly talk about the same things. Always. Aren’t you tired of scaring people? What do you expect? You have the same 20 or so dumb followers that are envious of folks that own homes.
They are all renters. There will be no crash nation wide.
In 3 years you will be proven wrong and look like your followers: a dummy.”

1) When you address a letter to someone, usually it’s fashioned:

Dear Garth,

2) Garth started the blog in March of 2008

3) I’m fairly certain Garth has discussed a wide variety of topics, including real estate, economics, politics, family finances, squirrel recipes etc.

4) 20 followers? Usually there are close to 200 daily comments, largely by different people.

5) They are not all renters. I’m proof. I ‘own’ my home (yes, I am a home debt-renter).

6) “…your followers: a dummy.” is grammatically incorrect. Should read: “…your followers: dummies.”

Thank you. Just to be accurate, Google Analytics says there were 17,668 visits to this site yesterday and 460,534 in the last thirty days, or about 5,526,000 per year. And those are just by the Amazons. — Garth

#188 Pr on 06.08.12 at 4:12 pm

The People’s Bank of China cut their interest rate due to concerns of a property crash and because of their slowing economy….CANADA to will soon follow, on cuting their interest rate to stop the same crash.

No. — Garth

#189 jess on 06.08.12 at 4:31 pm

http://76.12.174.187/wp-content/themes/magazine/PDFs/Columbia_McKenna_020612.pdf
Modeling Fraud: Behaving Nefariously
Francine McKenna Columbia University
Financial Engineering Seminar
February 6, 2012

=

“The balance sheets of an increasing number of
companies are dominated by valuation estimates, rather
than “solid numbers.””
Jay D. Hanson, PCAOB Board Member
27th Annual SEC Reporting and FASB Forum
New York, NY
Dec. 19, 2011

http://pcaobus.org/News/Speech/Pages/12192011_HansonForumKeynote.aspx

#190 Tony on 06.08.12 at 4:34 pm

I would expect at the absolute minimum a 40 percent fall over the next year and a half. Vancouver should fall somewhere around two-thirds and like U.S. real estate flat line after that for a long time.

#191 Linda Pearson on 06.08.12 at 4:36 pm

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

Yes, please. Would you consider parsing Guelph? So far, I haven’t noticed any decreasing prices and listings seem to sell quickly. But I’m no expert and don’t check daily. A poster recently spoke about selling his place and then renting it back from the buyer and that intrigues me.

#192 Bill on 06.08.12 at 5:11 pm

Saskatoon Housing Bubble Blog. Seen it posted on here before, but must not be very well known. Seems to have a lot of good information.

http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/

#193 Network Admin on 06.08.12 at 5:19 pm

Hey Garth would you dedicate a week of post where you look at individual locations?

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

Yes. Even though “godless” Toronto mentioned a lot, I would like to know more about 416 vs 905. Thanks.

#194 Blacksheep on 06.08.12 at 5:22 pm

Garth,

“NBF did not say that. He’s one financial guy. From Vancouver, which explains his challenges. — Garth”
—————————————————————-
David Lepoideven, VP portfolio Manager, Lepoideven group, National Bank Financial.

This was his official title at the bottom of the monitor, when he was introduced.

He says sell all Canadian banks, do to housing bubble on BNN this morning. Period.

He stated these are his opinions, not National Bank Financial that he works for. Similar to the disclaimer on your site: The opinions expressed on this site are his alone and do not reflect those of National Bank Financial.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip695408

http://www.nbfinancial.com/en/davidlepoidevin/index.php?gr=2

http://www.nbf.ca/en/tomensonturner/index.php?gr=3

Do you and David not share affiliation with the same: National Bank Financial?

respectfully,
Blacksheep

We also both inhale oxygen. He’s wrong. — Garth

#195 cinsou on 06.08.12 at 5:57 pm

Is there blog support for this idea? — Garth

Yes, please. Another one for Winnipeg.

#196 BPOE's BrainFart on 06.08.12 at 6:09 pm

@164 BPOE#1
“Crane envy” ?
Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha
Is that to compensate for your less than adequate appendage?
How shallow, how crass, how predictable, how typically Vancouver .
Has it stopped raining in the Lower Mould-land yet?
Perhaps all that rain has finally rotted your brain.
Crane envy…………..HAH!

#197 Gordeaux on 06.08.12 at 6:43 pm

Yes, I support the idea of drilling down into other communities rather than Van/TO… for example, I’m dying to know how Winnipeg thinks it can have Calgary housing prices and Winnipeg wages…

#198 DON on 06.08.12 at 6:51 pm

Tony on 06.08.12 at 4:34 pm
I would expect at the absolute minimum a 40 percent fall over the next year and a half. Vancouver should fall somewhere around two-thirds and like U.S. real estate flat line after that for a long time.
.
I wonder if Tony saw the bubble coming 7 yeare ago bought and cash out in 2011 and made out like a bandit
I dought it

#199 Tony on 06.08.12 at 6:53 pm

Re: #146 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.08.12 at 11:57 am

Wait for the average price to drop about two-thirds. After that the prices should flat line for the next decade or so. Buy near the end of the 10 year span.

#200 GTA REALTORS IN A PANIC. TORONTO CONDO'S TO FALL on 06.08.12 at 7:03 pm

On the evening news the talk was over building of condos and that the workmanship poorly done. Condos to fall apart within a year or two and higher maintenance fees. More condos being built then anywhere in NA and maybe even the world. Prices of condos should crash 60-70%. Oh ya they said buy an older well built condo 15-20 years old. It’s going to be a nasty crash.

#201 Tony on 06.08.12 at 7:29 pm

Re: Bottoms_Up on 06.08.12 at 4:01 pm

#87 NOBODY on 06.08.12 at 6:23 am

Garth is understating the fall in Canadian real estate. It will probably be something slightly less than in America only for the sole reason the gap between the rich and the poor is less in Canada than it is in America.

#202 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.08.12 at 7:35 pm


“We also both inhale oxygen. Is there blog support for this idea? No. And those are just by the Amazons. — Garth” — Hmmm. Have to contemplate on that for a while!

#184 bill — Curious (but nice) pic. Are BPOE, Justin Bieber and Frank (Titties ‘n’ Beer) Zappa one and the same? Just asking, coz Frank’s been a lil’ bit dead for a couple of decades now!
*
Southern California RE Prices are nuts (pix); Merkel What is Bernanke so scared of? Sociapaths want to be re-elected again, but their policies have forced people to sleep in their cars; Spain China is out of the running now; The US Economy still sux; 4:36 clip EU (Greece) onion skinned? Cameron Protecting UK from nothing while it goes broke; Iceland Two banxters convicted, another to go on trial.
*
Bill Gates and WHO create a monster to rival Windows, and Gardasil; CC or GW “The carbonazis have been screaming tipping point for a decade now. It snowed on Colorado this week, in June! Ten years ago the carbonazis were insisting that snow was a thing of the past.” wrh.com, and Sweden; Indiana Isn’t the NMF somewhere nearby; Toxic Sunscreen is flammable; Threatening Russia and Iran America supports other countries militarily, but cannot look after its own people; Sardine Stinkfoot; Lithium Salts in Water to combat Ireland’s suicide epidemic; Iran would like to live peacefully; Flame designed by scientists; Drones and northern Philippines.

#203 Realtors in a Panic! Now they attack Garth on 06.08.12 at 7:39 pm

#194Blacksheep

“He says sell all Canadian banks, do to housing bubble on BNN this morning. Period”

I was surprised David Lepoideven, VP portfolio Manager, Lepoideven group, National Bank Financial said to sell all Canadian banks. I would think CHMC would cover the loss from the housing crash. Maybe David ment the economic drag from people borrowing less and those who default on unsecured loans? When people go bankrupt from the housing crash they will walk from their credit cards and such. It’s already happening in BC. Like I said people will borrow until they are bankrupt. You seen it happen in every country in the world.

#204 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.08.12 at 7:42 pm

@#164 BPOE#1
“Crane envy” not to be confused with your secret desire…..”Brain Envy”

#205 Daisy Mae on 06.08.12 at 7:44 pm

#154 Jess: “By liberally dusting meat pieces with transglutaminase powder, squishing them into filet mignon-shaped molds, adding a bit of pressure to bond the pieces and chilling them — four-bucks-a-pound stew meat looks like a $25-a-pound filet mignon

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/9626-meat-glue-for-dinner

**********************

Maybe someday we’ll just take pills and do away with food altogether… LOL

#206 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.08.12 at 7:48 pm

Thank you. Just to be accurate, Google Analytics says there were 17,668 visits to this site yesterday and 460,534 in the last thirty days, or about 5,526,000 per year. —Garth

Wholy Crap! There’s a lot of people out there that just read and move on…. I feel humbled to be commenting, and its fun to stink up BPOE’s elevator every so often……..

#207 Daisy Mae on 06.08.12 at 7:48 pm

160disciple on 06.08.12 at 2:30 pm
“This is a shout out to Utopia… How’s Kenya this time of year?”

********************

Rain today! I have a grand daughter over there at this very moment. Thanks to WhatsApp I can keep in touch. iPhones are amazing!

#208 kc on 06.08.12 at 7:59 pm

“Thank you. Just to be accurate, Google Analytics says there were 17,668 visits to this site yesterday and 460,534 in the last thirty days, or about 5,526,000 per year. And those are just by the Amazons. — Garth”

Are you going to have a GarthBook IPO?? I can see it all now…. Billionaire Garth turner sells advertising and goes public.

Us guys in the shadows keep the stats interesting… just imagine reading 10,000 posts a day….

;) cheers

#209 Daisy Mae on 06.08.12 at 8:00 pm

#176 DayStar: “Anyone with suggestions on this? Where to go for a good FP in Van?”

**********************8

Good grief! He’s right under your nose. He doesn’t have to be in Vancouver. LOL

#210 Onemorething on 06.08.12 at 8:31 pm

#21 Someone on 06.07.12 at 10:19 pm

Garth, a few months ago you called anyone expecting more than a 15% RE price decline a moron… I see you are now predicting a 40+% price decline… Have you joined the ranks of morons? What gave?

The 15% number, as stated often, is a national average. Local markets will vary widely, depending on the moron count. — Garth

This reader above is typical of 1 in 5 who either cant read or cant understand the difference between NATIONAL AVG and CITY by CITY or Provincial declines.

Stop wasting precious blog space people.

Garth is simply stating a 15% OVERALL NATIONAL AVG of decline. I tend to believe his is being careful with this estimate as he wants less of the above comments to surface.

Down deep he knows it will be more, like 20-25% with the deepest declines in VAN (which will start it all) ending at 50-55% declines over a 5-7 year window and TO to follow not far behind by 40-45%.

THE PROBLEM IS CANADA NEVER HAD ITS CORRECTION so its due to face the two declines as one.

Canada has nothing to offer the Rest Of World during deflation and global slowdown in Manufacturing, Production, RE and Consumer Demand.

Neither does any Commodity Country!

Oh sorry, Canada does have something to offer – THIS BLOG!

#211 Scalgary on 06.08.12 at 8:36 pm

Hi Garth,

Looking forward to hear city specific comments from
you..!

Keep up the great work..! I did learn a lot financial stuffs from you…other than RE.
Did buy ‘xiu’.

Warm Regards

#212 disciple on 06.08.12 at 9:03 pm

Daisy Mae… I didn’t know Utopia was your grand-daughter! LOL… But you’re never going to guess what J.Lo has been up to…. http://tinyurl.com/7szysq2

#213 Devore on 06.08.12 at 9:13 pm

Aaaaan Vancouver hits 19,000 active listings. Happy weekend everyone.

http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/06/friday-free-for-all-208.html#comment-159426

#214 John on 06.08.12 at 9:31 pm

Mr Buyer wrote:

“Lets see, to sum up. Canadians are irresponsible layabouts that created the largest real estate bubble in history. Nice head fake yourself…lets try another translation on for size…Bubble propagators and a host of accomplices inflated housing prices to a level at which utter Chaos is a potential out come and in true psychopathic form blame the devastation upon the lesser mortals foolish enough to partake in the feast. All this of course after decades of moving the peons well paying jobs out of the country while telling said peons it is good for you. Yet another know it all that obviously has not played on a championship hockey team.”

————

It doesn’t sound like you get the concept. Canadians acted irresponsibly, but are in fact responsible anyway.

All adults are 100% responsible even if they don’t accept this, for whatever reason. Including all the excuses you listed.

With that correction, re-consider the ideas. You didn’t understand what was said.

#215 Boomer on 06.08.12 at 9:33 pm

Would love to see stats on the Hamilton, Brantford area. I am sitting on enough to buy a condo if the numbers are right. Watching and waiting while debt free and earning income!

#216 Davey Boy on 06.08.12 at 9:44 pm

Managed to go for an hour and a half bike ride today in Vancouver without getting wet. Thank God for small miracles.

Nice of the Lu Lu Lemon guy to satisfy his personal excessive material wants, screw what’s sensible, let Mother Earth have it with both barrels. Really disgusting.

#217 patiently waiting on 06.08.12 at 10:09 pm

To all those that feel like they are tempted to catch that falling knife and jump into the Vancouver market I did a quick search on active listings of single family homes with recent price reductions in Vancouver. In just 5 minutes I came up with 142 homes (this was not an exhaustive search as 5 minutes was all I had), and this does not include homes that have been terminated or left to expire so that they can be re-listed at lower prices to hide the price reductions – note that this a common practice and the numbers are quite likely substantially higher but would take a fair bit of time to go compile accurately . Here is what I did find . . . if you are patient you will win this one . . . :-)

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=50224749&s=BRC&t=BRC

#218 patiently waiting on 06.08.12 at 10:12 pm

This link shows the original price and the amount of the price reductions . . .

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1758429743&s=BRC&t=BRC

#219 BBstudios on 06.08.12 at 10:42 pm

#149 House Owner. I was mortgage free by 25, so what. You like to show off eh? We can do the same. My wife is smoking too btw =) suckerrrrr

#220 Snowboid on 06.08.12 at 10:54 pm

#218 patiently waiting on 06.08.12 at 10:12 pm…

Thanks for the links, this also clearly indicates how insane things are in Vancouver – the prices are crazy, crazy, crazy!

I especially like the carriage home (alley view) at 373 W15th for a reduced price of $ 1,213,000!!

#221 Cyclist on 06.08.12 at 10:54 pm

216 Davey – did u run into smokin’ man?

#222 The American on 06.08.12 at 11:31 pm

At #204: CrowdedElevatorFartz, I am laughing my ass off! Way to go :-)

You responded to BPOE, saying ““Crane envy” not to be confused with your secret desire…..”Brain Envy”?

Although I totally agree with you, can I further that? Here goes… eh, hem…

Bpoe, trust me when I say, it is abundantly clear you have “crane” envy. (For those of you who do not know the American slang meaning for that word, please go to urbandictionary.com). Cheers, shithead!

#223 Beach Girl on 06.08.12 at 11:37 pm

Are you kidding me? A neurosurgeon only puts 20% down on a million dollar abode. Do they teach math at these higher levels of education. I could understand it, if his office was in his house. Probably not zoned for that by the UPPITY UPPITIES.

I really cannot for the life of me understand why people would give up their person freedom to be indebted to miserable spouses and children. Not counting designer dogs, SUV’s, Boxters, Botox, whatever. Are you sadistic?

Anyway had a GREAT Day, met a WWF Female trainer. The Beach is happenninnn…. . all the boys were drooling. Invited her for a swim, she is scary. LOL.

Don’t marry a doctor, they are weird, but a lawyer , NEVER, NEVER.

#224 futureexpatriate on 06.09.12 at 12:56 am

Wish that guy was my son.

#225 TNT on 06.09.12 at 3:37 pm

Help me please,trying to find up to date Case Shiller for Vancouver area and North Shore.

#226 Ain’t Gonna Happen??? Hmm… perhaps it should be – How Low will it Go? | The Retiring Boomer™ on 06.09.12 at 4:02 pm

[…] Garth Turner takes a look at the data and proclaims: […]

#227 TurnerNation on 06.09.12 at 6:40 pm

Sure let’s focus on on other, less sexy parts of this Canadian body of land.

Those of us living in the GTA (Garth Turner Area) can deride these inhabitants as being inbred rednecks, whose women have loose morals, with above-per-captia drug and crime stats ;-)

This is the Toronto way.

#228 Doug on 06.10.12 at 12:46 pm

The house in the video has TWO DOZEN bathrooms? What, do you need to duck in for a whiz every five feet Mr. Lululemon? Insanity.