Mind your head

Be happy you’re not a drywall guy in Calgary, expecting to go work this morning for Greenboro Homes. Even being an ‘approved Mike Holmes builder’ did not save this company’s indebted butt.

In fact Greenboro, which has struggled with its Currie Barracks development (estate homes starting at $1.6 million) is part of Unity Builders Group, which went rafters-up over the weekend. That leaves an $18 million hole in the pocket of local trades, who can least afford such an egregious drubbing. Plus there’s another $162 million down the drain for various creditors, including the lending geniuses at Canada ICI Capital, of Calgary (adios, $30 million).

The company went into creditor protection mode, pleading with the courts that it, “now faces a liquidity crisis, the immediate risk of acceleration on many of its credit facilities, and the potential loss of material value for UBG and its stakeholders if individual creditors or partners proceed with immediate steps of enforcement.” The reasons for this failure – the recessionary housing market in Alberta which drastically reduced the value of company assets and caused, “an exhausting draw on its cash assets.” Like paying the guy who actually came to work last week.

Let’s remember this is happening four full years after Alberta real estate hit its bubbly high-water mark, and at a time when oil prices have been near, or over, $100 a barrel for more than twelve months. In other words, when buyers decide to stop buying because prices are stupid, no amount of economic jingoism or marketing hype’s gonna save you.

This is all interesting in light of what’s happening in Toronto, and the unravelling of Vancouver. More evidence of a truth one cannot escape – real estate (like all markets) gets ahead of itself, always corrects and sometimes crashes. Calgary and Edmonton saw housing prices soar by nearly 200%, and since 2008 have been a swamp. The decline experienced after the GFC looks about ready to re-commence.

In VanCity, too, prices surged in the last decade – up 163%. The average house costs 10 times what average families earn. Prices have also roared past rents. As a BMO report last week pointed out, with 10% down, the average family doesn’t even qualify for financing to buy  a crappy $683,000 house (the benchmark price). Banks shut the door when total housing costs (mortgage, insurance taxes) hit 32%. But for those typical Van families, it’s now close to 60%.

That this was unsustainable was evident to everyone not living there. And so it’s no surprise sales have plunged by more than 20%, detached homes are off an average of $100,000 and listings have just surged uncontrollably. This is the recipe for a hard landing.

Says one veteran  real estate player:

“The biggest thing impacting the market and the foreign buyer right now is the need to prove income.  Before, as long as your down payment was enough, the bank would give a loan for the rest.  Now, if you come from outside Canada (or from Canada) – You must have income to support the mortgage regardless of your down payment amount. At the same time, Mainland China buyers are mostly absent now and buying in the US because prices are too high. This is an unhappy combo.”

BTW, that BeeMo report reached this conclusion: “ Simply put, the typical family generally cannot afford to buy a house outside of a condo in the suburbs.” Yuck. Have you ever seen Port Moody? Or Abbotsford?

The bank says if interest rates rise a small 2% over the next two years, and incomes grow by 3%, then Vancouver prices have to fall by 12% just for houses to stay as absurdly unaffordable as they are now. But this won’t happen. Buyers are already voting with their disdain. The standoff with sellers will continue into summer, with prices sticky, until the inevitable takes place – the Calgaryization of our Pacifica Metrosexualopolis.

And what of godless Toronto?

There are 18,379 active listings in the GTA, which has about six million people. In Vancouver, with 80% fewer citizens, there are 36% more properties for sale. You figure it out. Van is toast. Toronto’s not. At least, not yet. But we’re working on it.

The average price (houses and condos) has topped $517,000 in the region as a whole, with a SFH now at $647,692 in the GTA and $835,522 in 416. At these levels, dramatically fewer people can afford real estate, even with 3% mortgages and punch-drunk lenders. Monthly sales numbers are suspect, with up to 20% of all reported deals being pre-sales of condos which may never be built. Bidding wars have seriously faded in the last three weeks, and outside of the kind of frenzy I reported last week with that Upper Unionville project, crickets are moving in.

Real estate is local. Mortgage rates, lending regs, demographics and the economy affect everywhere. But the most important ingredient is sentiment. The head and heart stuff. It’s why this pathetic blog yaks on about hormones, lust and horniness. Without desire, there’s no market.

As they say in Calgary, you get what you geld.

– BMO Capital Markets

204 comments ↓

#1 MarcFromOttawa on 05.21.12 at 9:44 pm

8th

#2 Tempted to say FIRST on 05.21.12 at 9:44 pm

But that would be too childish.

#3 Ash on 05.21.12 at 9:45 pm

Appreciate your blog. Waiting for the burst for some time and patience is running low now.

#4 rjrt81 on 05.21.12 at 9:48 pm

Can’t wait for the crash! Waiting patiently on the sidelines has never been sweeter! In Garth We Trust!

#5 Not 1st on 05.21.12 at 9:49 pm

Finally, some real insight into the cowtown market. I would love to hear more updates from there instead of Vancouver or GTA.

#6 Neil on 05.21.12 at 9:52 pm

Garth, I think we need to move on from the constant reporting of the dire real estate situation in various hoods across the land. Let’s move on to something more positive and usable to establish and maintain a balanced portfolio.

#7 zeeman on 05.21.12 at 9:52 pm

hi

your comparison of vancouver to gta stats…should it not be toronto to vancouver comparison, removing the suburbs like markharm, mississuaga, thornhill and so on..

also, what are thoughts that rates are going to drop and this fuel the market again….

The comparison is valid – urban region to urban region. And the BoC will not drop rates. — Garth

#8 wopaholic on 05.21.12 at 9:53 pm

I live in the 416 and Toronto and the surrounding regions are on crack…seriously. The nastiest crash in the country could very well take place here and every moron here would richly deserve it.

#9 Told-you-so-in-2007 on 05.21.12 at 9:58 pm

“The biggest thing impacting the market and the foreign buyer right now is the need to prove income.  Before, as long as your down payment was enough, the bank would give a loan for the rest.”

Regarding the realtor’s statements on the foreign buyer: how much of a down payment was sufficient for banks to forgo an income verification?

The thought that this ever was the case is frightening.

#10 LH on 05.21.12 at 9:58 pm

By the looks of that graph, there’s still plenty of upside in Toronto!

Or at least sell YVR / buy YYZ

#11 Renters Revenge on 05.21.12 at 10:02 pm

The problem is that as house prices fall jobs and incomes will start to fall as well, turning a bad situation an absolute disaster.
No wonder Flaherty and Carney are panicking just a bit.

#12 thinker on 05.21.12 at 10:03 pm

Facebook

#13 Mortgage brokers in an all out panic on 05.21.12 at 10:03 pm

Mortgage brokers are kicking and screaming about proposed new rules which would have banks look at employment and income.. LoL. Mortgage brokers know they have lent out so much sub-prime and liar loans that would explode the ponzi scam. 80% of mortgages would night pass the FREE MARKET test. What are you mortgage brokers worried about? These criminals have lent out almost 600 billion in bad loans. The house of cards is going to come crashing down and Canada will have a much worse housing crash then canada. This is 100 % fact. The mortgage brokers know it.

#14 Chaddywack on 05.21.12 at 10:04 pm

Balloons are still on that listing down the street for 900k on the corner of two busy streets. They’re now wet and flaccid though….

#15 YYC on 05.21.12 at 10:06 pm

A smaller builder in Calgary went belly up just weeks ago as well. Arctek Custom Homes.

Things are starting to unravel.

#16 canus on 05.21.12 at 10:07 pm

For those who are impatient, just move somewhere where the conditions are more favorable. The free market corrects itself over time. Unfortunately, the correction is not instantaneous (the world is not ideal nor perfectly a free market) and it can take a good portion of ones life to swing. You are not entitled to live like your parents, or live the promised life in Canada just because you are Canadian.

#17 J.I.M. on 05.21.12 at 10:07 pm

For the last 3 years I have been following the Calgary housing market, specifically the SFH market here in the SE, specifically Acadia, Willow Park, Maple Ridge and Lake Bonavista areas in the 350k to 500k range. I have observed prices gently slide down, not a lot mind you, but still declining.

#18 Canadian Watchdog on 05.21.12 at 10:10 pm

Toronto’s new twin city https://p.twimg.com/AtdlpYhCAAEHJT6.png:large

#19 Mortgage brokers in an all out panic on 05.21.12 at 10:11 pm

Foreign money was allowed to gamble using 5% down without the need to prove income? The situation in Canada in 10X worse then the US. Canada is now set for a monster of a housing crash. Imagine so called HAM dropping 50g’s to get a 1 MILLION gamble? Canada is in big big trouble. When the house of cards crashes its going to be swift and hard. The ponzi scheme was even more worse then what I first thought. Whatbabhouse of cards

#20 Not 1st on 05.21.12 at 10:13 pm

Alert – the chinese real estate market is sinking fast…literally.

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2012/05/21/soaring-to-sinking-how-building-up-is-bringing-shanghai-down/

#21 wopaholic on 05.21.12 at 10:14 pm

#15 Toronto’s new twin city https://p.twimg.com/AtdlpYhCAAEHJT6.png:large
………………………………………………………………………….

Sadly, I can only wish Toronto had Miami’s climate :(

#22 timbo on 05.21.12 at 10:15 pm

Worked on Greenboro job sites for years Garth. It was a good solid company who was overextended due to the boom. Sad to see them go.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/597611-u-s-demographics-and-the-likelihood-of-a-housing-recovery

“If people are already in homes and there are few incremental buyers, housing affordability is not an indication that demand will soon return. If the index is high because demand is muted and interest rates are low, it does not follow that greater demand will inevitably return. That would only be true in the context of favorable demographics such as we have had in previous recoveries.”

Unless immigration is increased and good jobs are provided to buy starter homes then housing market will remain tepid at best…

#23 furst on 05.21.12 at 10:15 pm

FURST!!!>>>>>FURST….Yup!

#24 East Van on 05.21.12 at 10:17 pm

“There are 18,379 active listings in the GTA, which has about six million people. In Vancouver, with 80% fewer citizens, there are 36% more properties for sale”

At 16,538, the total number of homes listed for sale (in Metro Vancouver) increased 8.5 per cent in April compared to last month and 16 per cent above this time last year.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+housing+market+remains+balanced+despite+sharp+sales+drop+report/6554355/story.html#ixzz1vYpNXe42

That was a month ago. — Garth

#25 eviee1973 on 05.21.12 at 10:25 pm

As a newcomer to Calgary, I am appaled by the endless surban sprawl, I really liked the redevelopment of the former CFB Calgary, including the Currie Barracks, a convenient midtown community. However at 2.5 to 3 times the price of overpriced surban sprawl similar home, it’s easy to see that this builder was not serious about selling houses.

#26 A. on 05.21.12 at 10:26 pm

Hey! Port Moody is beautiful. It may be a suburb, but it’s gorgeous.

#27 The Original Dave on 05.21.12 at 10:26 pm

that charts looks good for Toronto. I must have missed how bad it really got in places like L.A and Miami!

Toronto prices are nuts. Maybe I’m missing something.

#28 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.21.12 at 10:30 pm

Somebody should tell the GTA realtors that “crickets are moving in”. The stupid game of re-listing at a significantly higher price is still going on:

C2358896 – M2N – 12 ESPANA LANE Toronto, Ontario May 10: $700,000
May 17: $870,000 (+24%)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11908281&PidKey=-1900669747

C2352341 – M4V – 54 WALKER AVE Toronto, Ontario
May 3: $1,999,999
May 21: $2,300,000 (+15%)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11876373&PidKey=-1850758463

C2359893 – M2N – 62 CRAIGMORE CRES Toronto, Ontario
May 10: $849,800
May 20: $878,800 (+4%)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11908076&PidKey=848444671

The “Vancouverization” of Toronto continues… apparently we’re still running on the last of the HAM fumes before the tank hits empty.

#29 Really on 05.21.12 at 10:31 pm

Garth its time to start telling the readers of this pathetic blog what steps the government and big banks are going to take to try and prevent the RE from collapsing.

Most of those steps are going to hurt the prudent, the savers and ones that stood on sidelines and told the truth about their income etc.

Banks are going to ask for a bailout.
Normal overleveraged stupid idiots with liar loans are going to ask for a bailout.
CMHC is going to have to pay out a lot of insurance money because banks working together with people (my tax money) fraudulently “qualified” for mortgages.

Lawyers specializing in frustrating the foreclosure proccess are going to pop up and further make a mess of our market on the way down.

All of the above is absolutely unnacceptable. In the case of stupid homeowner – you bought it – I don’t care what stupid counsel you got – you have to pay for it or move out and take the full hit for your stupidity.
In the case of the criminal banker – you loaned them the money and didn’t really care about the details because you still make your fee and your bonus whether the loan worked out or not in the end.

Someone with credibility and the ability to articulate the issues that are about to hit us needs to carry the torch (that would be YOU Garth) to the public so that the backroom deals and the things that will be done that hurt the prudent are brought to the light.

This (ought to be) is your next step in the process of enlightening of people to the RE market collapse we are about to witness, should you be willing to accept it.

Thank you for your excellent work here btw.

#30 East Van on 05.21.12 at 10:31 pm

I know a house painter in Van, with little education, and no other skills. I worry that he will be toast when the bubble bursts. Should I stick my nose where it dosn’t belong and tell him to try find other work before the crash comes?

#31 Observor on 05.21.12 at 10:33 pm

timbo at number 21 says ” Greenboro… was a good solid company who was overextended due to the boom. Sad to see them go.”

Yeah right, the boom made them do it. I suppose “all the other builder kids” were also blowing their brains out with debt.

Idiot management, plain and simple. Glad to see them gone! (Although as a share owner of Melcor, a land developer, I probaly lost some money here as well).

#32 eviee1973 on 05.21.12 at 10:35 pm

The local advertiser and industry bought newspapers, The Calgary Sun, and The Calgary Herald have not mentioned a word about Grenboro Homes.

#33 timbo on 05.21.12 at 10:35 pm

#17 Jim

Areas are good but a word of advice. Check the date built and be wary of anything built or renovated in the early 80’s. We have had some subcontracts that were forced to drastically increase work performed due to moisture and blatant code violations (original build). Check the tag at the hot water tank / furnace gas line or on the plumbing stack in the basement for the date of the last inspected major plumbing alteration.

#34 East Van on 05.21.12 at 10:39 pm

Some crazy people on this blog want to see a real estate crash. They don’t realize how bad that could be for the whole society.

Bubbles are no roaring hell, either. — Garth

#35 Tim on 05.21.12 at 10:43 pm

Housing is up 160% in Vancouver and now it may correct by 20%. Big deal. Still far better than most investments

Correction of 20 per cent is the start, not the trough, and a huge deal if you bought two years ago. – – Garth

#36 Mister Obvious on 05.21.12 at 10:44 pm

Agreeing with #26 A.

Port Moody is not so bad as Vancouver suburbs go. At least, the little town center. Maybe Garth is actually thinking of Port Coquitlam.

#37 Mister Obvious on 05.21.12 at 10:54 pm

#30 East Van

“Should I stick my nose where it dosn’t belong and tell him to try find other work before the crash comes?”
——————–

Definitely not.

#38 Aussie Roy on 05.21.12 at 10:54 pm

East Van on 05.21.12 at 10:39 pm

Some crazy people on this blog want to see a real estate crash. They don’t realize how bad that could be for the whole society.

Bubbles are no roaring hell, either. — Garth
……………………………………………………………………………

Not sure about wishing, more like can see the bleeding obvious.

Many of the delusional want house prices to continue to skyrocket, they don’t know how bad this would be for society.

#39 Canadian Watchdog on 05.21.12 at 10:54 pm

#19 Mortgage brokers in an all out panic

Toronto’s condo situation is worse then what’s being reported. TREB active listings do not include new condo listings like The Red Pin, and even Red Pin stats don’t justify real inventory levels because developers are not going to list their entire inventory on MLS.

As an example. This site Buzz buzz home shows Burano condos as SOLD OUT and has an occupancy date scheduled for next month. http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/burano-condominiums

I’ve been following recent condos developments and noticed that upon completion, assignment listings on craigslist and kijiji start showing up by VIP and so called re agents, but really some are developers selling units trying to front-run other assignment holders. http://ontario.kijiji.ca/f-burano-real-estate-condos-for-sale-W0QQCatIdZ643QQKeywordZburanoQ20QQisSearchFormZtrue

So it appears we have another situation like Telus Gardens in Van that was reported sold out by the media, when in fact it wasn’t. Who knows how many other developers are pulling the same scheme.

—————–

Just so you know Garth—REBGV is the only board that doesn’t revise its sales data and their y/y comparisons are 100% correct, not like TREB and the rest. Sales could be down and nothing more then added ‘offline’ pre-con sales. New SFH purchases too.

#40 BC Bring Cash on 05.21.12 at 10:56 pm

Here’s a link to an article on the Facebook IPO fiasco on how the underwriter screwed up. Morgan Stanley bought millions of shares to try and prop up the price.
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-banker-morgan-stanley-bought-a-humongous-amount-of-stock-to-try-support-price-2012-5?utm_source=sailthrusuggest&utm_medium=rightrail&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=recirc

#41 Aussie Roy on 05.21.12 at 11:00 pm

Aussie Headlines

Property bubble set to burst: forecaster

Funny how it was different here, a housing shortage, until it wasn’t.

Canberra’s building boom has outstripped population growth, leading to an emerging housing oversupply, according to a leading economic forecaster.

http://www.theage.com.au/act-news/property-bubble-set-to-burst-forecaster-20120521-1z1o4.html

However, there’s little joy in the 2012-13 federal budget for the property industry

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/industry-suffers-for-surplus-20120518-1ywpk.html

SPECIFIC measures in the federal budget will damage the growing level of foreign investment in Australia’s commercial property sector, according to a key property group.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/property-investment-to-suffer-20120513-1ykry.html

A Melbourne real estate agent has had his licence suspended for underquoting, following a two-year battle with the state’s watchdog and courts.

The Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal withdrew real estate agent Dean Anthony Johnson’s licence for two months, reprimanded him, and ordered him to provide proof for the next two years that he is not marketing properties to would-be buyers at prices below the minimal price set out by the sellers.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/real-estate-agent-suspended-for-underquoting-20120516-1yq9w.html

More jobs go

Qantas has confirmed it will slash 500 engineering jobs and close its heavy maintenance base in Melbourne – one of three in Australia – by August as part of cost-cutting measures.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/qantas-cuts-500-engineering-jobs-20120521-1z06b.html

#42 99% on 05.21.12 at 11:04 pm

#34 East Van
“Some crazy people on this blog want to see a real estate crash. They don’t realize how bad that could be for the whole society.”

REALLY???!!!! You think it’s good for society when housing costs have soared out of control and out of whack with the average income? The only people that can afford to buy a dog house or crack shack is a Mainland China new immigrant? That the average home in Vancouver is well in excess of $1million dollars? Think about it East Van….$1million dollars? This is good for the whole society? Or are you just thinking about yourself because you want to unload your stinking shack and not care about the next generation? How high do you want prices to go before it is in the best interest of our society? Then do you think it would be best if the average home levelled off at say $2 million for the next 20 years? Or just until you sell? This is an example of the greed and self-serving mentality.

#43 Cavegirl on 05.21.12 at 11:08 pm

Garth, you’re always talking about Toronto and Vancouver. What about Montreal? What’s going on with listings & prices?

The terrorists aren’t helping. — Garth

#44 45north on 05.21.12 at 11:10 pm

Mortgage brokers in an all panic: The house of cards is going to come crashing down and Canada will have a much worse housing crash than the US.

Mark Hanson writes about CMHC’s computerized system to evaluate mortgage applications. Emili:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/moloin_009.cfm

he makes that the point that as long as house prices keep rising , you have very few defaults, you have no idea of the quality of mortgages and you don’t detect fraud.

it’s like the directors of CMHC believe in the rapture

#45 Bobby on 05.21.12 at 11:12 pm

I’m here in Toronto on holidays. Was in a cab downtown on an on ramp to the expressway. Could have reached out and touched some of the balconies of the condo projects under construction. Can imagine the great views of a passing cab.

What was rather disturbing was the sad level of quality of the basic concrete structure. Lots of cracks and patches.

Are people really buying this crap?

#46 Kurt on 05.21.12 at 11:13 pm

Thank you, 99%.

#47 Jon B on 05.21.12 at 11:20 pm

The sorry outcome over the recent debt-binging going on around VanCity and other bubbly areas of the country must surely weigh heavy on the minds of those that are our political masters. Surely they have some surprises in store. Surprises that even the ongoing discussions on this blog have not yet surmised. I bet the Feds have a plan. The consequences of millions of mega-indebted tax payers putting the brakes on their consumption to keep up with their monthly obligations must surely mean an emergency plan exists in the anals of Centre block. I say they toy with amortization periods – allowing debtors to stretch 40, 50, 60 years to even multi-generational payback. Whatever it takes to keep a trickle of cash flowing into the hands of the bankers for as long as possible. Debt slavery with no chance of parole.

#48 East Van on 05.21.12 at 11:22 pm

@99%

Sold my east van condo 2 years ago for almost 3 times what I payed in 2001. Now renting.

I still don’t want to see a crash because of the unemployent and hardship it will bring.

#49 immigrant with pizza delivery skills on 05.21.12 at 11:27 pm

I was in US while market was crashing. It was bad for renters since many people was forced out and they had to rent. Do you expect to have it in Canada too?
My guess is that since pop is small and most RE buyers are resellers, there won’t be a big problem and rent increases in Canada.
I am surely not buying any North American junk houses made of wood and glue, but as a renter I don’t need shortages in rental property either.

#50 mark on 05.21.12 at 11:29 pm

O’Leary’s saying dump bank preferreds.

Then 2 seconds later

I don’t think we’ll have a big correction in Canada because we require 20% down! hahahaha

He sells mutual funds. — Garth

#51 Inglorious Investor on 05.21.12 at 11:32 pm

“Now, […] You must have income to support the mortgage regardless of your down payment amount.

What a revolutionary idea.

#52 earlymidlifecrisis on 05.21.12 at 11:40 pm

Officially unemployed now. After almost 1/2 my life with them no card, no thank-you, not even a good-bye. The company cares nothing about its employees or clients. All they care about is building their real estate empire. If there is a crash they will suffer, if the OSFI changes happen they will be crushed. Unfortunately like the self serving company they are the ones who will suffer will be clients and employees. Unless they get a bailout, then the taxpayer will too. I really hope there is a karma, it is so needed here. On a different note, quite a few foreclosures aren’t selling in the OK and CMHC is having to pay out the insurance. If this is just the start it will be expensive.

#53 Neta on 05.21.12 at 11:43 pm

Excellent point by Mike Hudson, very much applicable to Canada as well:
“Blindness to the debt issue results in especial nonsense when applied to analysis of why the U.S. economy has lost its export competitiveness. How on earth can American industry be expected to compete when employees must pay about 40 percent of their wages on debt-leveraged housing, about 10 percent more on student loans, credit cards and other bank debt, 15 percent on FICA, and about 10 to 15 percent more in income and sales taxes? Between 75 and 80 percent of the wage payment is absorbed by the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector even before employees can start buying goods and services! No wonder the economy is shrinking, sales are falling off, and new investment and hiring have followed suit.

#54 Crash Callaway on 05.21.12 at 11:55 pm

Funny to watch the Money Cartel ( Money lenders, Law Makers and House Sellers) turning on one another to keep their scruffy necks away from the guillotine head rest.

Chop Chop! you scumbags the jig is up

#55 Cory on 05.21.12 at 11:58 pm

Garth,
are you on crack??? it is different in Calgary, the Herald says so

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Calgary+real+estate+sales+growth+leads+country/6623311/story.html

I am still baffled at how many condo projects are under construction and they still have not sold out the last round of construction!!!

There is definitely no shortage of housing supply either. Acreage prices surrounding Calgary are dropping quite hard which is good to see.

Rents are creeping up, but I do not think it is from migration…maybe some…but some is coming more from more people not qualifying for mortgages.

Something has to give. I dont know how it is “good” that housing and the cost of living being so high is something to be proud of….it’s like mayor’s doing an annual appearance at the food bank?? how can a mayor of a city be proud of even having a food bank in their city????

still baffled!!!

#56 Not 1st on 05.22.12 at 12:05 am

Must be a mistake on your chart. Toronto looks very flat comparatively.

#57 vic_guy on 05.22.12 at 12:24 am

Tim @ #35

For each 100k of a house :

100 * 1.6 = 160 Up
160 * 0.8 = 128 Down

A drop of 20% is not insignificant, especially if it is only the beginning.

#58 JSS on 05.22.12 at 12:29 am

“The decline experienced after the GFC looks about ready to re-commence.”

Garth – do you think that the TSX as a whole will also decline at the same rate as housing?

#59 Dave on 05.22.12 at 12:32 am

To the people saying that there was nothing in the media about Greenboro, there was a huge write up in the Calgary Herald about it the other day.

#60 Alberta Ed on 05.22.12 at 12:41 am

It will be interesting to see what the Calgary MSM have to say about Greenboro. If anything.

#61 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.22.12 at 12:45 am


“And what of godless Toronto, the Calgaryization of our Pacifica Metrosexualopolis?” — What’s a lopolis?

“. . . this is happening four full years after Alberta real estate hit its bubbly high-water mark, and at a time when oil prices have been near, or over, $100 a barrel . . .” — How long does Canada take before it catches up to the US? About 3 – 6 years? Then it’s just about bang on. Can’t say we weren’t warned.

“At the same time, Mainland China buyers are mostly absent now and buying in the US because prices are too high. This is the recipe for a hard landing.” — Just like China, and it’s co-ordinated. The dominoes are crashing all around us. Where’s BPOE and Mikey the Realtor when all the fun is happening?
*
Kissinger Where has this been quoted? Plus UN and One World Currency Add Agenda 21, tearing up union contracts, police states thruout the west, the west’s shift to the left, removing currency, etc.; EZone driving into a wall; Heist of the Century Starring Wall St.; Commodities TFSAs, possibly; Upbeat Economists; Poverty Gap One of the worst in western world, yet Cameron is prepared to buy nuke subs; JPM Trader Billions; FB Shit happens; Workers’ Rights ecall when Gordon Campbell ripped up the nurses’ contract a few years ago? Contagious; Gold Here’s a nice one; FB investing.

BPOE, Mikey the Realtor — This one’s 4 U; FB and JPM Incl. chart; Full-fledged Euro bank run; Italy’s financial terrorists; Panic Attacks Better than Mars Attacks; Apartments Now these are nice! Germany’s metal wage increase; Two Decades without a garbage bag; Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics; Spending Habits Apply to lobbyists, politicos and sheeples; UK Energy Policy All nukes all the time; Hiding Assets; Gold and lots of it; 9:15 clip GM is now China Motors.
*
List of Build Yer Burgers; NDAA gives OK to war with Iran, and 5:29 clip Is the G8 looking to end sovereignty while attention is focused on NATO in Chicago? And G8 unified; Siberia Great place for a trip; WWF Prince Charles and his nutbars; Beyond the Manufactured Apocalypse and Why Mankind is Screwed; 9:54 clip Conform? Don’t ever conform! 38:04 clip Anonymous’ snooze button; DU, Fukushima and Karma; Costa Rica’s ‘cano Ready to blow? Tickling the Dragon a.k.a. a Cdn. police state; Haggis and Couch Potatoes Right here; Conspiracy Theory? Undecided; Turtle the size of a car found.

#62 Spiltbongwater on 05.22.12 at 12:47 am

Other then the pile of sulpher, and the thermal plant, I don’t know what is not to like about Port Moody. Guess it is too much natural beauty for Garth to handle.

#63 ANONYMOUS on 05.22.12 at 12:48 am

EVERYBODY; watch this and learn what will soon face America, Canada, Europe, and Australia.

(“The Global Debt Crisis – Perfectly Explained”)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz6xG2YtyyE

Well, maybe not ‘soon’, but within the next 15 years for sure. It will be the end of the debt-based type of economic system as we know it.

#64 MB on 05.22.12 at 12:49 am

http://seekingalpha.com/article/442421-canadian-housing-bubble-sentiment

An interesting model for tracking market sentiment

#65 Canadian Watchdog on 05.22.12 at 1:01 am

Canada’s big banks facing credit risks, Fitch warns http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/21/mortgage-risk-biggest-threat-to-canadian-banks-fitch/

#66 Freedom First on 05.22.12 at 1:13 am

Love that picture today Garth:)……reminds me of the saying “All in”. Also reminds me of a couple of Warren Buffett sayings : “Real Estate has caused more bankruptcies than everything else combined…..by a mile”, and : “Leverage is fun on the way up, on the way down…..not so much”. And my favourite, from author unknown: “Debt is not wealth”. Diversify.

#67 Mr Buyer on 05.22.12 at 1:28 am

#29 Really on 05.21.12 at 10:31 pm

CMHC is going to have to pay out a lot of insurance money because banks working together with people (my tax money) fraudulently “qualified” for mortgages.
……………………………………………………………….
I think you touched on an interesting point. Fraud is fraud. There may be a legal way out of CMHC’s obligation to the bank and certainly the person that took out the mortgage if due diligence was not carried out and it amounted to incompetence or worse still negligence. Of course CMHC and the banks were very close together in this whole process but when push comes to shove the banks were forking out the cash without covering their butts (or rather with assurances CMHC would cover their butts). Lets see how close these bubble propagators remain on the ride down.

#68 Mr Buyer on 05.22.12 at 1:34 am

Another thing people in Japan do is rent land and build houses on the rented land. My in-laws have tenants on some of their land for 3 generations now. About double the price of property tax is collected as rent every year (about $2500 for most pieces of land). If more is asked for the use of the land it sits empty and a tax liability. People can get really reasonable after disasters be they natural or man made (even financial disasters).

#69 Signpost in the bushes on 05.22.12 at 2:06 am

O’Leary’s saying dump bank preferreds.

Then 2 seconds later

I don’t think we’ll have a big correction in Canada because we require 20% down! hahahaha

He sells mutual funds. — Garth

“Everyone’s selling something!”

#70 Aussie Roy on 05.22.12 at 2:23 am

Aussie Headlines

Located in the inner Melbourne suburb of Richmond, it definitely holds a good spot in a popular and pricey enclave.

But at 240 square metres, the land size is smallish. What’s more, the single-fronted Victorian is protected by a heritage overlay, meaning an owner would face a tough, if not insurmountable, fight to bulldoze it.

Not that any of that mattered. Three bidders fought over the property, with the winner paying $700,000 at the fall of the hammer when the price blew past the $630,000 reserve. (Yarra council assessed the site value at $585,000 and the capital improved value at $630,000 in early 2010)

What you reckon about this sale is likely to say a lot about what side you’re taking in the increasingly acrimonious debate over whether Australia is in the grip of a dangerous property bubble.

The result certainly appears crazy…

Nearly three quarters of million dollars (including stamp duty) for a property that can’t be lived in or outright demolished to make way for a flash new home or low-rise units.

To bubble proponents — and affordable housing advocates — this kind of result is symptomatic of the unsustainable, not to mention unfair, Ponzi-like scheme that defines and fuels the Australian housing market.

http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/one-bubble-isnt-enough-20120308-1uli0.html

Prices and the illusion of certainty

But many of the movements are so extreme for the same cities they’re at risk of being irrelevant. Not to mention the fact that within this uncertainty there’s plenty of room for abuse by the spruikers, who can quote whatever numbers suit the message of the moment.

Trying to figure out which set is “correct” is no simple matter.

Each of these groups can mount strong cases for why their methodology is the best, while quite persuasively trashing the systems of their competitors.

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/prices-and-the-illusion-of-certainty-20120430-1xtwt.html

Runaway home price increases accounted for more than half the loan growth for owner-occupied homes over the past 17 years, a report shows.

Credit Suisse banking analyst Jarrod Martin estimates that 55 per cent of the growth in owner-occupied housing credit over the period 1995–2011 – worth a total $378 billion- was caused by rising house prices rather than growing numbers of loans and population increases.

But NO BUBBLE or Price falls – WTF?.

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/prices-and-the-illusion-of-certainty-20120430-1xtwt.html

#71 TRT on 05.22.12 at 2:24 am

When I can buy a house for 10% less than what it sold for a month or two ago, then i’ll believe a correction is upon us.

Until then,

keep up the biased, wishful thinking everyone.

#72 Aussie Roy on 05.22.12 at 2:28 am

Runaway home price increases accounted for more than half the loan growth for owner-occupied homes over the past 17 years, a report shows.

Credit Suisse banking analyst Jarrod Martin estimates that 55 per cent of the growth in owner-occupied housing credit over the period 1995–2011 – worth a total $378 billion- was caused by rising house prices rather than growing numbers of loans and population increases.

But NO BUBBLE or Price falls – WTF?.

Sorry correct link is

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/house-price-gains-accounts-for-much-of-home-loan-growth-20120522-1z2qr.html

#73 Mark on 05.22.12 at 2:44 am

$16M worth of customer deposits (346 customers) are ‘unsecured claims’ on that UBG filing. Just doing a rough average, that’s $45k a piece that will probably end up undergoing a severe impairment.

#74 Mark on 05.22.12 at 2:49 am

“Plus there’s another $162 million down the drain for various creditors”

Down the drain? Those are secured claims. The security is executed upon, the assets are liquidated (probably for the value of the loans), and everyone goes on their merry way.

Some other developer or house buyer will be getting a relative bargain on land and houses though because the equity of the firm will have been wiped out.

#75 new-era on 05.22.12 at 2:53 am

Foreign money was allowed to gamble using 5% down without the need to prove income? The situation in Canada in 10X worse then the US. Canada is now set for a monster of a housing crash. Imagine so called HAM dropping 50g’s to get a 1 MILLION gamble? Canada is in big big trouble. When the house of cards crashes its going to be swift and hard. The ponzi scheme was even more worse then what I first thought. Whatbabhouse of cards

===================

Totally agree with you. Us was huge but Canada will be “EPIC”.

0) It has already started, If your trying to sell now, you may be too late

1) Construction companies will fail
2) Projects will stop
3) Canada housing industry will start to fold leaving a huge gap causing Epic Unemployment in construction, builders, frames, electicians, plumber.

Real estate agents, downsize in real estate firms.

Banks who sell mortgages, loaning agents, lawyers.

Coffee stands, and food places whom services this section/s

Conclusion Unemployment will balloon

4) more houses going under water. more unemployment more stuggles.
And round and round we go, each iteration slowly chomping away at house prices until all faith in this sector is lost. Just like our brothers down south

#76 new-era on 05.22.12 at 3:01 am

#34 East Van on 05.21.12 at 10:39 pm

Some crazy people on this blog want to see a real estate crash. They don’t realize how bad that could be for the whole society.
=======================

Bad for whom???

When is affordable housing bad for the economy?

When is an economy driven by debt and big government healthy and GREED?

If the BS about HAM buying everything, then why are you worried. Only HAM will take the hit. Or is that all BS and 70% of the real-estate bought by Canadians. PLus many of them are speculators.

Lot of my friends own 3 or four houses. and are now starting to panic. One of them just recently placed a bid on a house and won with a 25,000 low ball bid. That was weeks ago and now they are feeling regret, because this was the 4th house they own.

GREED GREED GREED

#77 Canuck Abroad on 05.22.12 at 3:05 am

49 immigrant – I am surprised to hear this. Many of the people who lost homes were so broke they moved back in with family or doubled up with others. As a result, rents FELL at the same time house prices were falling. Rents are recovering now (six years after the house price peak), but the initial move was down. I think if you check rental prices charts you will find this is so. So I wouldn’t worry too much about rent prices going up.

#78 Devore on 05.22.12 at 3:11 am

48 East Van

I still don’t want to see a crash because of the unemployent and hardship it will bring.

It really doesn’t mater what you want. We’re just here to state the obvious.

#79 Canuck Abroad on 05.22.12 at 3:12 am

49 immigrant continued – Another thing that might keep rental prices down (in TO at least) is the massive quantity of new condos that will be hitting the rental supply. Some people like to claim that no owners will rent for less than their costs but of course this is nonsense. If there is too much supply you will rent for what the market will bear or your unit will sit empty earning no rent at all. The huge number of units being built could drag down rents across the city for years.

#80 Mind your head | The Retiring Boomer™ on 05.22.12 at 3:23 am

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#81 Aussie Roy on 05.22.12 at 5:19 am

Aussie Update

Video – Lies, half truths, delusional optimism and house prices – Against the wind.

A look back at the last years predictions and the actual result.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUjvPvXchPk

How Moronic

A LIBERAL government would double the first home builders’ grant and reduce stamp duty for first home buyers, Opposition Leader Will Hodgman said yesterday.
Mr Hodgman will deliver his alternative budget today.

He said the Liberals had allocated $3.5 million to provide up to 500 grants of $7000 in 2012-13 to build new first homes.

“This would be on top of the $7000 grant from the federal government, meaning first home builders would receive $14,000 in support,” he said.

http://www.examiner.com.au/news/local/news/politics/libs-offer-to-double-first-home-grant/2563755.aspx

#82 Hugues on 05.22.12 at 5:44 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/21/idUSWNA770420120521

The special report, ‘Evaluating Canadian Banks’ Residential Mortgage Exposure’, provides bank-specific results of stress-tests for the Big Six […] Fitch applied three-year cumulative losses of 1%-10% on the residential mortgage and HELOC exposures of the six largest Canadian banks.

Hi Garth,

I enjoy your blog, but unfortunately you are still preaching on a sparsely populated island! Once again, five years after the crash south of the border, a rating agency shows how clueless it is. By most reasonable and commonly used measures, the Canadian housing market is overpriced by more than 10%, and when asset bubbles burst they often overshoot below fair value. I am not saying that it will happen with certainty, but a decline of 15%-20% is certainly possible and should have been considered in the stress test. The fact that Fitch limited the worst possible loss to 10% is a complete joke and makes any conclusion drawn from its report absolutely useless.

Please do not stop preaching,

Hugues.

#83 Deb on 05.22.12 at 6:04 am

It now appears as though the new mortgage underwriting rules from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) will be released in about five weeks. The big question, of course, is whether the new rules will affect those who currently have a mortgage and want to renew, in addition to the new mortgage applicants. If so, the result will be a huge dust-up at the ranch.

#84 Mr Buyer on 05.22.12 at 6:38 am

We are getting closer to committing to Japan long term. The wife will wind up alone for ten years or more at the end of her life and I cannot bear the idea of her freezing her ass off speaking Japanese in an empty house she is still paying for. There is still the straddling two countries route and the kids will likely go to highschool and University in Canada but barring a continued meltdown in Fukushima or our old house being destroyed by an earthquake I think I better get her set up for life alone as an old lady here in Japan before I can even hope to return for an extended visit with the kids. She loves Canada very much but it would take everything we have to get set up in a marginal home with no job or income. It is a shame because if it were even ten years ago we would be laughing and the kids would love life in Canada for sure.

#85 Market Bull on 05.22.12 at 6:51 am

“Monthly sales numbers are suspect, with up to 20% of all reported deals being pre-sales of condos which may never be built.” ~ Garth
_____________________________________________

Suspect numbers? I’ll say. Here’s a litlle fact-checking for ‘ya.

In April there were 10,350 sales on TREB. 1,500 of those sales were condo apartments. That represents 14% of total sales, the vast majority of which were re-sale NOT pre-sale.

Condo sales have averaged 2,000 a month in 2012, 80% of which are pre-sales. — Garth

#86 jane54 on 05.22.12 at 6:56 am

Article on the http://www.dailymail.co.uk site about baby boomers starting to downsize in the Uk. Apparently 40% of deals now are people coming down the housing ladder verses only 20% of deals being folk going up.

Usually the Uk is 3 years ahead of Canada re housing trends. Ee went down in 2008 but have been bobbing along at the lower value nicely now for a year.

#87 futureexpatriate on 05.22.12 at 7:17 am

Hehe… you finally said the “H” word. (Holmes.)

Lost his magazine, lost his clothing line, lost his last inspection series due to bad ratings and pissing off Ottawa, fired his producer and second in command, repackaged reruns, can anyone say crumbling empire?

The cruel might say Canadian Content welfare sponges are not long for the coming new world. Nor Can HGTV.

#88 bigrider on 05.22.12 at 7:25 am

Not sure that chart you put up at the end today supports your notion of lower prices.

Compared to Miami and Los Angeles, Toronto and even Vancouver 10 year price increases dont look that out of whack

Can you afford a SFH in Vancouver or 416? — Garth

#89 Linda Pearson on 05.22.12 at 7:37 am

#30East Van on 05.21.12 at 10:31 pm
I know a house painter in Van, with little education, and no other skills. I worry that he will be toast when the bubble bursts. Should I stick my nose where it dosn’t belong and tell him to try find other work before the crash comes?

No you shouldn’t. However, when/if he finds himself short of work you could offer to help him print his own business cards and to prepare a simple flyer that he could deliver around middle-class and more affluent neighbourhoods.

As I type this, a self-employed painting contractor is at our house redecorating the upper floor of our townhouse. This is the 3rd occasion and the 2nd home in which we have used his services. I have no idea of his education level but I can attest to his exemplary work habits and painting skills.

With the aging of the boomer generation there should be lots of work of this type for skilled tradesmen/women who wish to operate their own businesses.

#90 timbo on 05.22.12 at 7:39 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9278862/Europe-is-driving-full-tilt-foot-on-the-pedal-into-a-brick-wall.html

“Unemployment is rising by the day, and among young people it now stands at a shameful 54 per cent. Yup, folks – those are the results of an EU plan to produce “growth and jobs”. ”

It’s only going to get better now isn’t it….

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/world/europe/spaniards-go-underground-to-fight-slump.html?_r=2

“Without the underground economy, we would be in a situation of probably violent social unrest,” said Robert Tornabell, a professor and former dean of the Esade business school in Barcelona. “A lot of people are now staying afloat only thanks to the underground economy, as well as the support of their family network.”

Welcome to the new normal. Having to work under the table to survive will surely spur on a recovery….

#91 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 8:05 am

DELETED

#92 Karma on 05.22.12 at 8:05 am

#52 EarlyMidlifeCrisis

“Officially unemployed now. After almost 1/2 my life with them no card, no thank-you, not even a good-bye. The company cares nothing about its employees or clients.”

Sorry to hear about your job loss. In my half century on this planet, I have seen enough examples of karma that makes you believe in its existence. Hold your head up high, wish no one ill, use your experience and good work ethics to land on your feet again and then just let the universe do its thing…

#93 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 8:12 am

Oh, we are having a pool party, but everyone has to go to the dollar store and buy tin foil and make a hat. Then a group photo. The winner gets 20 bucks. I just love my life.

#94 In Garth not God we Trust on 05.22.12 at 8:16 am

#29 Really

“Someone with credibility and the ability to articulate the issues that are about to hit us needs to carry the torch (that would be YOU Garth) to the public…”

That is what the bearded mystic oracle, surrounded by gorgeous and obedient Amazons, financial tea leaf reading, former minister of national revenues, financial prognosticator without equal, lone voice of reason crying out in the financial wasteland of Canada, “I dance to my own drums you parliamentarian peckerheads”, former right honourable Garth Turner, aka, our fearless and intrepid leader has been doing for the past four years on this mother of all blogs!

#95 TurnerNation on 05.22.12 at 8:19 am

Where is poster ‘Realtors in a Panic’? :-)

Currie Barracks – squished up against Crowchild trail in a bleak SW area. Close to Marda Loop (gentrified slightly) and a short commute downtown. Still, 1.6 mill is crazy.

In other news, Facebook just flopped down to $33 in pre market trading on a million shares volume…

#96 Victor on 05.22.12 at 8:32 am

OECD urges Canada to raise rates

Tuesday, May. 22, 2012

An influential international body is urging Canada’s central bank to raise interest rates in the fall, and continue doing so through 2013 to cool housing prices and contain inflation.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s prescription for monetary policy will stoke the already hot debate about whether the Bank of Canada’s interest rate stance is inflating a housing bubble.

Governor Mark Carney and other officials say the days of ultra-cheap money are coming to an end, although they so far have declined to be more specific. The OECD, a high-powered economic research group backed by contributions from its 34 rich country members, offers a scenario: An increase in the benchmark rate of a quarter of a percentage point in the autumn, and similar increases each quarter through to the end of next year, leaving the benchmark overnight target at 2.25 per cent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/oecd-urges-canada-to-raise-rates/article2439393/

#97 Victor on 05.22.12 at 8:34 am

Mortgage brokers warn about new refinancing rules

Monday, May. 21, 2012

“CAAMP strongly recommends that this concept be clarified so that mortgages continue to be renewed at maturity without requalification,” the industry association said in a submission to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI).

“If not, homeowners who have been in compliance may no longer qualify. This would result in a number of properties hitting the market at the same time and thereby driving down prices.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mortgage-brokers-warn-about-new-refinancing-rules/article2439205/

#98 FOXnews on 05.22.12 at 8:38 am

OMG!! Garth said: “the GFC looks about ready to re-commence.”

Run for the hills!!
(don’t forget your gold)

I said, regarding housing: “The decline experienced after the GFC looks about ready to re-commence.” Try not to be a nob. — Garth

#99 TurnerNation on 05.22.12 at 8:42 am

Regarding “priced out forever”. Can someone list any consumer good that is no longer affordable or available to middle classes? Anything, anywhere?

Unobtainium?

Nothing. Every bubble crashes itself.

The herd, track6ers will use phrases such as Renting is throwing money away, or Priced out forever. Translation: these people are too lazy to perform a cash flow analysis. These are not business people. Tune them out. Get a new friend group.

*80% of your “friends” will underperform or fail financially, maritially and perhaps physically (addictions, weight). Got that? 80%. Is this the best you an do? Hanging out with these losers as they tear in their beer? Missing their house/wife/car/kids/dog?
Lift the needle, stop living in a country and western record.

Us blog dogs are still waiting for the spaceship, taking us to planet TurnerNation where stern risk managers await. Our credit will be metered! Our plutocrats will orbit around us! This planet is already inhabited by the Amazonians who at once will initiate an intensive cross-breeding plan to save their dying race.

#100 timbo on 05.22.12 at 8:47 am

It is bigger than I thought. Will keep tapping the pipeline for more info. But Elite homes alone is going to throw many people temporarily out of work.

Unity Builders Group
Owner of:

– Greenboro Calgary
– Elite Homes Calgary
– Today’s Homes Calgary
– Evolution by Greenboro Calgary
– Quintero Calgary
– Currie Barracks Calgary
– Todays Communities Calgary
– Alpine Homes Canmore
– Wilderness Homes Canmore
– Greenboro Homes Edmonton
– Today’s Homes Colorado Springs

CALGARY — Home developer Unity Builders Group is seeking creditor protection after betting too heavily on luxury homes and condos in Alberta and the United States.

The Calgary-based business, known for its Greenboro brand among others, is $180 million in debt to lending agencies and banks, with almost 10 per cent of that amount owed to trades, according to an affidavit filed by company founder Robert Friesen.

People in the process of buying a home in Alberta under the Unity Builders Group umbrella will not be materially affected by the company being under creditor protection, said a company executive.

“The view through this process is get back to the core business as soon as reasonably possible and continue on to the best of our ability to our core business of building homes, turning them over to the people who have bought the homes,” said Larry Scammell, vice-president of investment with Unity Investments, Friday.

“There inevitably will be some level of interruption to that process, but as far as the effect on the home buyers, it would be relatively immaterial at this point, and it is very early. As we get through, we’ll know more about that.”

In the court document filed May 9, Friesen states the housing meltdown in the U.S. and the recession’s impact on the housing market in Alberta drastically reduced the value of the company’s assets, tied up in 33 partnerships, and caused “an exhausting draw on its cash resources.”

The company sought protection under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act to continue to run its business and pay down the debt load.

“UBG now faces a liquidity crisis, the immediate risk of acceleration on many of its credit facilities, and the potential loss of material value for UBG and its stakeholders if individual creditors or partners proceed with immediate steps of enforcement,” he said in the statement filed at the Court of Queen’s Bench in Calgary.

More than 100 home buyers could see their residences not completed on time or budget if the creditor protection wasn’t granted, Friesen stated. Friesen, who in the affidavit said he stepped back from operations in late 2008, holds the largest chunk of secured debt, at $32.7 million, with commercial mortgage brokerage Canada IC next at $29.6 million owed.

“The intent of the company is to carry on business as usual state, complete the houses, have people move into the houses and close the sale,” added Bob Taylor, monitor with Ernst & Young.

As Unity Builders filed for creditor protection little over a week ago, it was far too early to determine if there will be any losses for any party, Taylor said.

Unity Builders was launched in 1998 with a focus on single-family residences in Calgary and Edmonton. As Alberta’s economy heated up in the early 2000s, Friesen expanded into multi-family housing markets in Canada and the United States, as well, bringing in $490 million in sales revenues and net income of $45.5 million by 2007.

The company grew into six main divisions, including the Greenboro brand currently developing in the high-end neighbourhood of Currie Barracks, as well as Valmont at Aspen Stone, Wilderness Ridge at Stewart Creek and Elite Homes.

Unity Investments gathers private investment to finance or refinance homebuilding operations of Unity Builders Group on a project by project basis. The investment group funded nine home builders and 36 projects in Alberta and the U.S. last year, building 480 homes.

In Colorado, people are questioning if they will get deposits back from UBG division partner Todays Homes after finding out the Colorado Springs-based partnership had closed shop May 4, laying off all employees.

According to records accessed by local media, Todays Homes holds title to 104 properties in the area, with about 25 homes under contract.

Friesen’s company owes $3.72 million in the U.S., primarily on landholdings and show homes in Colorado and Texas, with a head office in Nevada.

The company’s U.S. division “currently has little work underway and has proven to be unprofitable,” he stated in the affidavit.

In Canada, companies under the protection offered by the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act have time to review their financial standing and work out a plan to correct what might not be working, said Scammell.

“Given the circumstance of the CCAA situation that we find ourselves in there’s no question that there are certain things that we can and are and will continue to do that will absolutely have a positive affect on the outcome and opinions of the stakeholders, Scammell said. “The single most important thing … is to communicate with our stakeholders.”

#101 Nonno Nicola on 05.22.12 at 8:55 am

#88 Bigga Rider

Hiya Bigga Rider. Hopa you and youra famiglia had a splendido weekenda. Did you go and buya da books by Jack Schwager? Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards?

#102 Van Isle Renter on 05.22.12 at 9:00 am

#71 TRT on 05.22.12 at 2:24 am
When I can buy a house for 10% less than what it sold for a month or two ago, then i’ll believe a correction is upon us.

Until then,

keep up the biased, wishful thinking everyone.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Then why not wait 10 months? The house will be free!!!

I get your logic…. I’m with you man!!!

#103 Market Bull on 05.22.12 at 9:08 am

Condo sales have averaged 2,000 a month in 2012, 80% of which are pre-sales. — Garth
_____________________________________________

Just to clarify.

Is it your contention that TREB is reporting brand new condo pre-sales (the vast majority of which are not listed on MLS) as MLS sales?

If so, that is pure fantasy and unworthy of further comment.

#104 Bob Copeland on 05.22.12 at 9:08 am

Anybody else see this?

http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

#105 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.22.12 at 9:09 am

anyone seen my BPOE ?

He’s a cute little Shiztzu-Poodle cross.

Im worried sick !!!!!!

Traffic is too dangerous here in Richmond for him to be scampering about off his leash……

#106 debtified on 05.22.12 at 9:14 am

Hey, Garth. On March 2nd you said:

“BTW, there’s another buying opp coming.”

Is it now?

#107 Joe Q. on 05.22.12 at 9:15 am

@#28 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.21.12 at 10:30 pm

Re-listing at a higher price is a sure sign of a bidding war that didn’t go the seller’s way. If the seller refuses all bids over his initial asking price, he either has to withdraw the listing or re-list at a higher price to avoid charges of false advertising. After over-asking bids have been received and rejected, he can’t continue to advertise the home for sale at the same price.

#108 Ex-Cowtown on 05.22.12 at 9:16 am

I find it hilarious how many people are naive enough to believe being a secured creditor means that you’ll get all of your $$ back in a default situation.

In most cases, 60% or 70% is manna from heaven. 50% is common and as little as 30% is not unheard of.

If the house builders are going “rafters up” (God I love GT’s turns of the phrase) then the customers leaving in droves are the cause of the developers problems. I read a while ago that buyers are walking away from their deposits. That is more indicative of the rising tide of fear than anything else.

When we sold our Cowtown house a couple of years ago I lost a lot of sleep until the deal closed as I felt that there was a good chance that the buyer was going to walk on the deposit. Luckily for us, they didn’t.

A deposit doesn’t mean the deal is going to close… as the Calgary developers are now learning.

#109 CP on 05.22.12 at 9:17 am

Poor, poor Lana:

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1178779–marriage-ended-with-a-mortgage-debt-hangover

#110 Buy When their is Blood in the Streets on 05.22.12 at 9:19 am

The question some on this blog have to ask themselves is this. Since real estate is tied to the economy, if real estate tanks it will not do so in a vacuum. There will be an accompanying economic contraction (exhibit A, the good ol US of A). The powers that be know this and hence why they want to keep the real estate bandwagon going. The reason why many or most do not buy low is because when asset prices are low (exhibit B, the 2008 financial meltdown and subsequent stock prices decline) there is fear in the air. So those who are waiting on the sidelines to buy, will you be able to overcome the fear that will be in the air in a real estate meltdown and buy? Will your job be completely unaffected? As Wall Street Pete has shown here, many Americans have refused to buy houses at 40% discounts to their building costs because fear has been etched into their subconscious minds and are actually paying more to rent than they would if they bought the home they are renting. They have an inverse situation to what we have in Canada. Things to ponder…

#111 brainsail on 05.22.12 at 9:25 am

What the heck is this all about?

“The explosive issue of corruption in Quebec returns to centre stage Tuesday as a long-anticipated public inquiry gets under way into the shadowy workings of the province’s construction industry.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/amid-student-unrest-quebec-turns-up-heat-with-corruption-probe/article2439447/

#112 Junius on 05.22.12 at 9:30 am

#47 Jon B,

What do you think the government could through at the housing market to keep it up? What have they not already done that they could pull out of their shorts?

They have done just about all they could. They could add in some buyer grants and other incentives but it will not add up to enough. They tried this in the US and other places to no avail.

To not understand that this is “the end” is to not appreciate the causes of the bubble. The cheap credit has done its effect. It will now wind back over the next decade. As it does prices will recede. It is just a matter of how quickly.

#113 Daniel on 05.22.12 at 9:35 am

International Update:

Reporting from Penang Malaysia.

This is a hot place for Hot Asian Money and the valuations show it. We’re now bidding at about 1000RM a sqft, or 330USD.

Is it time to sell my 1000Sqft condo in the main shopping district (Gurney)?

Nothing has slowed yet, but many projects are similar to those in Canada. All investors, no owners, condo’s are sitting empty even the 4000sqft ones worth 3.5-4 million.

#114 DM in C on 05.22.12 at 9:39 am

#91

Beach Girl — your posts are typically off topic and irrelevant, but that one is pretty offensive, even for you.

Garth, can we get a ruling?

#115 refinow on 05.22.12 at 10:01 am

#13… Seriously, you are going to blame this whole thing on mortgage brokers? We don’t lend out money, we are only a channel to to direct the client to either the Bank with the lowest rate, or to the lender who will approve the application based on the quality of the applicant.

We don’t make the rules, lending policies and have zero authority to actually approve the advance of funds.

That my ignorant friend is the Bank’s and our government responsibility. Period.

Before you can buy with 5% your application has to be scrutinized by the Bank who is lending on it and CMHC.

Paperwork to verify income, down payments and credit history have very strict guidelines as to what is acceptable and what is not.

Yes people can get mortgages approved using income higher then their actual declared income, for some applicants, but not all… Again within the guidelines of the Banks and CMHC.

So if you feel it necessary to point your finger at someone, I think there has to be some responsibility put on the buyer, no one is holding a gun to their heads to buy any house.

And for the last 23 years when real estate continued to climb year over year, buyers felt they were on top of the world and their Mortgage Broker was a genius to get them that mortgage approval so they can take a ride on the “Gravy Train” of financial bliss. But as soon as there is the possibility that house prices will start to descend……

Now it’s that damn Mortgage Broker’s fault for getting that mortgage approved..

If you have spent any time on this blog you have been warned for the last 4 years that this event has been easily forecastible. Hell you even had the Chance to watch the US melt down, Calgary…..Now Vancouver…. next in line is Toronto…..

This is not rocket science….. Sell your house for profit immediately and don’t you dare point that boney finger in my direction or any other Mortgage Broker you may know.

Take responsibility for your actions.

#116 Dodged-A-Bullit-In-Alberta on 05.22.12 at 10:01 am

Greetings: A short time ago, I spent a full day in Canmore, Alberta driving around every sub division in the community. Blew my mind at the amout of bucks, size of houses, number of condos in that place. Went up to a condo complex that has been shut down. Fenced off and only partially built. Right across are owners of other units which have to look at this mess from their front steps. Checked out some real estate listings, obscene asking prices. The whole area must consist of “greater fools”.

#117 disciple on 05.22.12 at 10:03 am

Linda Pearson and timbo… You both present great ideas in your posts above. And it relates to my own thoughts this morning as I ponder the massive deficits run up by Western governments in Europe and North America over the last few decades…

First of all, those who have developed any type of skill whatsoever will not need to worry about a damn thing, in my opinion. For example; painters, who have carefully honed their craft over the years, and even those who are complete slobs with a roller (usually employed by the expert painters), make a comfortable living, with or without a housing crash or economic stagnation.

Unemployed youth is a growing global problem for a number of reasons which include having boomer parents who feel entitled to a professional career for both themselves and their children. But not everyone can be included in the middle income bracket in a slavery-based global economic system. Labour is the ultimate source of all wealth, and those who do not labour for a living (financial parasite class) are not really wealthy but enjoy the benefits of the perverted system. That’s why they have resorted to acting as you’ll find out in my blog, to sustain a system of wealth distribution that is ultimately unsustainable, if not for mass mind control.

The ultimate destination is a truly free society, where literally everything will be free… including, of money. In such a system, traditional 19th-20th century ideas of employment will not be necessary, as well as the charms of war and and its panhandlers. What you are seeing are the birth pangs, the beginning of the dream of the golden age.

This golden age will be one without government. We are the government, most people forget this. We are the system. If you don’t like it, change it. It can be accomplished today, tonight, tomorrow. What we need to do is default. Governments have borrowed money from the FIRE that did not exist; that is, it was not backed up by any labour or technology or any tangible proof of any hope thereof. Therefore, the act of borrowing fake wealth as forward demand was a fraudulent act in the first place. And those who engaged in it must be held accountable and replaced by those of us in the next generation who understand not to ever do this again.

To return to sanity after we have escaped the mass mind control associated with the current economic system, default will be the correct choice, and really will be the only choice as the global debt mountain to the banksters cannot be overcome without some type of technological quantum leap.

#118 Canadian Watchdog on 05.22.12 at 10:08 am

Mark Carney and Jim Flaherty Photo Op http://i48.tinypic.com/35ckgok.jpg

#119 refinow on 05.22.12 at 10:10 am

I got this in my email this morning……My guess sent it to the entire mortgage broker’s list of emails…

Occupancy in 2016….Are you kidding me, who is going to cover the difference between your purchase price in 2012, and the market value of your unit in 2016.

Can you just imaging how many of these pre-sales will just walk away from their 15% deposits.

Dear Clients & Colleagues,

Canary District (Home of the 2015 PanAm Games) just hosted a Power Broker event, officially launching the Canary District’s first condo building. If you or your clients are interested in this development please let me know and I will forward you pricing and floor plans.

Canary District is the official site for the 2015 PanAm Games. This community will be an eco-friendly waterfront community, which will evolve into Toronto’s largest urban village with thousands of new condominiums, an 18-acre park, retail, dining, cafes, sports, arts and culture. This sustainable LEED Gold community will be comparable to the famous Canary Wharf community in London England and Battery Park community in New York City.
• 15% Down Over 365 Days
• Priced from $224,900 or $519/Square Foot
• $2,500 ASSIGNMENT FEE
• Occupancy 2016
Find out more info on this project here.

Thanks and best regards,

#120 truth hammer on 05.22.12 at 10:45 am

The fact is that unemployment is much higher than is being reported by our ‘ship of fools’ bureaucracy. The Rest are being squeezed between hyperinflated costs for food and basic needs that paople of every stripe have taken to the streets to loot and burn in frustration. The students may have opened the door to a much larger expression of the national frustration. The bonehead freaks in government don’t have the average guys problems…..they live like Marie Antoinette’s unhinged from every day life in Canada.

You think people are cross border shopping for bargains? No……they’re trying to survive and crossing the border for milk and cheese has become a nessesity.

http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Cross+border+shopping+price+trumps+moral+suasion+fight+consumers/6656073/story.html

Fight the Power.

#121 maka on 05.22.12 at 10:51 am

100th…..:)

#122 Mortgage Brokers in an All Out PANIC! on 05.22.12 at 10:57 am

Mortgage brokers warn about new refinancing rules

Monday, May. 21, 2012

“CAAMP strongly recommends that this concept be clarified so that mortgages continue to be renewed at maturity without requalification,” the industry association said in a submission to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI).

“If not, homeowners who have been in compliance may no longer qualify. This would result in a number of properties hitting the market at the same time and thereby driving down prices.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mortgage-brokers-warn-about-new-refinancing-rules/article2439205/
——————————————————————–

Every mortgage brokers knows they committed fraud on a grand scale of lies and manipulation to the tune of almost 600 BILLION dollars or the size of Canada’s national debt. Many mortgage brokers are in fear they will be sent to prison if the extent of the crimes come to light. Canada has a housing ponzi that makes Americans housing bubble look legal. No wonder they do not want people to look at the mortgage.

#123 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.22.12 at 11:24 am

The brain trust has spoken. Thee DEFINITIVE GENIUSES of Real Estate. Like I’ve said all along LOVIN IT. Negativity makes for good sound bites and a way for some to stroke their egos on their negative views. But the FACTS point to everyday getting better and better
***************************************
Globe & Mail; Sommerville; Rennie – “No Bubble” – “Those in the know out here don’t seem to be too alarmed by what they’re seeing” … “Talk of housing bubbles makes for provocative sound bites but isn’t based in reality.”
“While there are certainly those outside the city – including economists at some of our more reputable financial institutions – who think Vancouver is heading for an abrupt decline in house prices, those in the know out here don’t seem to be too alarmed by what they’re seeing.”

“Tsur Somerville, the oft-quoted real-estate economist from the University of B.C., doesn’t see signs of a major real-estate story brewing. He actually holds a refreshing perspective on the local scene. He won’t even go so far as to say that buyers hold the advantage at the moment, even though supply far exceeds demand.
“When the average house price is still north of $800,000, then buyers’ market is a term I like to avoid using,” he says.”

“Some think that while the housing market might not be ready to go bust just yet, the condo arena is. But marketer Bob Rennie, someone who follows this area more closely than anyone in the city, says that’s nonsense. … Mr. Rennie said talk of housing bubbles makes for provocative sound bites but isn’t based in reality. He produced a dazzling array of charts and graphs to back his claim that the future of condo sales has never looked brighter.

#124 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.22.12 at 11:27 am

Hilarious VREAA comments. Love this site. This poster wants the Economist intervierwed which has been DEAD WRONG on real estate in Vancouver for over a half decade. No shame
************************************
21 Responses to Globe & Mail; Sommerville; Rennie – “No Bubble” – “Those in the know out here don’t seem to be too alarmed by what they’re seeing” … “Talk of housing bubbles makes for provocative sound bites but isn’t based in reality.”
pricedoutfornow | 20 May 2012 at 7:57 am | Reply

I’m sure tired of hearing the same “experts” time and time again. Why don’t they ever interview someone who has a different view? There are plenty of reputable ones out there. It would be great if say, Global would interview Ben Rabidoux or Garth Turner, or even someone from The Economist. Instead, they present some headline story about “oooh maybe there’s a housing bubble”, but the conclusion is always the same-they interview the same jack*sses who say the same thing “Nope, no bubble.” It’s starting to make us look like country bumpkins who can’t go any further afield to get an opinion about a story. I think I’ll write Global an email, they’re really starting to piss me off.

#125 D Ho on 05.22.12 at 11:37 am

Hi Garth,

I’ve noticed that when shopping for a house in Markham, there isn’t that much SFH for less than $700,000. However, once I look at the $700,00 to $900,000 area, there is plenty to choose from. Do you think it makes sense for those house prices to drop back to the $600,000 range due to over supply at the $700,000 to $900,000 range?

Best advice: stop shopping. — Garth

#126 Junius on 05.22.12 at 11:41 am

#157 Refinow,

I agrre. Blaming the entire mortgage broker community for the bubble is as undeserving as blaming realtors. The blame is first with the Federal government and the banks are a distant second. However, like the Re industry, I do take issue with the leadership who should lnow better.

#127 John on 05.22.12 at 11:47 am

Neil wrote:

“Garth, I think we need to move on from the constant reporting of the dire real estate situation in various hoods across the land. Let’s move on to something more positive and usable to establish and maintain a balanced portfolio.”
————–

Something positive and useful to establish a “balanced portfolio”.

1. Derivatives
2. China faltering
3. US “corporate earnings” anything but “corporate”
4. Real estate matching derivatives glucose ml for ml, everywhere on the planet where the unified system operates.
5. World credit card debt at saturated levels.
6. Toothlessness of previous “world authority”
7. A near total disintegration of the family
8. Technology in the masses as a source of massive distraction, not education or community.
9. The end of sovereign governments in the western world, and a disinterest on the part of the populace in having representative government ( see 8.)
10. Rising and serious discontent in youth everywhere due to a lack of access to the derivatives ponzi.

If your “advice” ignores any of the above, it might not be as “balanced” as you hope.

Why not do your own research and contribute? Getting out of housing and understanding that game is an amazing advance. From there, what would you do…thinking for yourself? ( Guns, gold and whisky not allowed).

#128 Jim on 05.22.12 at 11:48 am

#123,

A newspaper or media outlet which took its role seriously would probably want to trot out some of the people who called the US bubble, in order for them to explain their methodology. (E.g., Schiller, Roubini, Schiff).

However, the incentive structure at work in media companies makes it very difficult to do so. After all, real estate comprises a good chunk of a paper’s advertising income. Far easier to trot out lightweights with no track record of success (e.g., Sommerville)

#129 Kilby on 05.22.12 at 11:55 am

Globe and Mail today……
An influential international body is urging Canada’s central bank to raise interest rates in the fall, and continue doing so through 2013 to cool housing prices and contain inflation.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s prescription for monetary policy will stoke the already hot debate about whether the Bank of Canada’s interest rate stance is inflating a housing bubble.

Governor Mark Carney and other officials say the days of ultra-cheap money are coming to an end, although they so far have declined to be more specific. The OECD, a high-powered economic research group backed by contributions from its 34 rich country members, offers a scenario: An increase in the benchmark rate of a quarter of a percentage point in the autumn, and similar increases each quarter through to the end of next year, leaving the benchmark overnight target at 2.25 per cent.

#130 Canadian Watchdog on 05.22.12 at 12:08 pm

#102 Market Bull

Is it your contention that TREB is reporting brand new condo pre-sales (the vast majority of which are not listed on MLS) as MLS sales?

Not just condo pre-cons, SFH too

http://i50.tinypic.com/2mxpco0.png
http://i47.tinypic.com/jv6gio.png
http://i45.tinypic.com/ermufc.png

There’s tons more where that came from…

It’s a shame how a self-proclaimed 20 year TREB member paying for manipulated statistics can’t figure what’s going on, even when it’s right in front of you. http://i45.tinypic.com/hsuqgi.png

#131 disciple on 05.22.12 at 12:23 pm

Mind your head. And what’s in it. If you are not ready to receive the following info due to mental collapse, then please, by all means, ignore:

Kermit Roosevelt (Hitler/Disney) was head of Argentine banking and thus the Nazi connection presents itself.
Michael Greenberg, son of Maurice Greenberg (Josef Mengele) is head of Mossad. In his other incarnations he won a World Series (as Michael Green) and developed rocket technology (Werner von Braun) – busy man.
Maurice’s wife’s name, Corinne Phyllis Zuckerman was the inspiration for the character named Mark Zuckerberg (who is also David Rockefeller’s grandson) – these families show a lack of creativity for generating names…

Kate Gosselin=Kate McCann=Rielle Hunter
Tony Blair=John Edwards=SIR Sam Neill
Marilyn Monroe=Rosalyn Carter=Jacqueline Kennedy

Here is a damage-control article by “Julia Mitchell” (Alissa Lori Greenberg, wife of Jeff Rense character).
http://www.examiner.com/article/facebook-and-the-mark-zuckerberg-psy-op

When your world is a bad dream, simply wake up.

#132 DUI on Money Road on 05.22.12 at 12:25 pm

#71 TRT on 05.22.12 at 2:24 am
++++++++++++++++++++++++
That’s a 60 to 120% annualized drop in housing prices. LMFAO!

#133 DUI on Money Road on 05.22.12 at 12:36 pm

#114 DM in C on 05.22.12 at 9:39 am
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Garth I agree, you should delete post #91.

Done. — Garth

#134 Canadian Watchdog on 05.22.12 at 12:50 pm

http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/tor/reb/3005519262.html

“Not intended to solicit persons under existing representation agreements. ”

Ahh yes, because this agent already figured out that the developers of Yorkville Plaza Condos are using him as a poster boy to sell inventory at discount prices, which would be considered a conflict of interest and disenfranchisement to public assignment holders who can not sell assignments until occupancy or in some cases, until a certain percentage of the project has been sold.

Lots of lawsuits coming once assignment holders figure out this scheme.

#135 Blacksheep on 05.22.12 at 1:35 pm

#209 disciple

“#59 Blacksheep… Victoria Grant’s real identity is Johnny Knoxville’s daughter. She also goes by the pseudonym Madison Clapp. If you quickly survey the message boards, you’ll see that CBC has censored any comments related to this, so I’m not the only one who knows, very telling and PROVES that MSM endorses these lies…”
——————————————-
Disciple,

I didn’t ask what ‘actor’ was playing her role. Didn’t ask who her father is. Didn’t ask for her stage name. Didn’t ask what CBC is, or is not doing. Didn’t ask about MSM lies.

I asked you:

What’s your opinion on the CONTENT of her message?

Respectfully
Blacksheep

#136 Balmuto on 05.22.12 at 1:35 pm

Mortgage brokers warn about new refinancing rules

Monday, May. 21, 2012

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mortgage-brokers-warn-about-new-refinancing-rules/article2439205/
——————————————————————–

I had to laugh out loud from this bit of spin in the same article:

“Many borrowers use HELOCs to invest in capital markets or even for their own business purposes,” CAAMP says in its submission. “In this way, many Canadians are using their HELOCs for retirement and job creation – a positive goal which the government is trying to encourage.”

So, if you don’t have enough money for retirement, the solution is to take on more debt and try your luck in the stock market. Never mind paying down debt, living within your means, and investing what you save, not what you borrow. That would not be a sound retirement strategy – we need leverage, dammit!

#137 Alex N Calgary on 05.22.12 at 1:40 pm

I’m hanging out today at a oilngas place in the Currie barracks, you have never seen such terrible military style washrooms ever, those urinals are like 4in apart!

The houses out here are crazy, they have no yard at all, built right on the road, with a massive dual story monster garage as big as the house, no trees, no nothing, built with particle board, embarassing to say the LEAST.

I remember the legal secs at the lawfirm who process the sales there, ooh and ahhhing at how nice the Currie Barracks homes are, but they are HIDEOUS, the townhouses are 600k +, no trees, no yard, nothing, ok location, but they were SO greedy on these things.

The Drywall insulation place I work at, Jerty….., continues to struggle, some quality people work there, but those incompenent, undeserving rich owners will suffer soon enough. All these people who made big money off the housing boom, have releveraged it into even more dangerous work…

Its the secret here that nobody talks about, I mean after all, so many people make money off housing, and would suffer massivly if it went down, of course they lie and pump day in and out, but the truth is somewhat different…..

#138 Snipes on 05.22.12 at 1:45 pm

HELP!!! My wife is so house horny it’s unbelievable!! We live in Van (I grew up here, she’s from China). I want to keep renting in the city and she wants to buy in the burbs!! I’ve managed to stave her off until next spring. I hope the market crashes by then or I’m done for. Save yourselves!!

#139 2centsCanadian on 05.22.12 at 2:19 pm

I’m 54 years old, live a little north of TO and have been through 2 real estate corrections (2 1/2 if you count a weird little blip in 08). I bought my first house in 1982, tough times ….. 18% mortgage rates … but I was living at my parents home and saving like a mad man (making 19% on GIC’s). I squeeked through the early late 80’s/90’s crash, selling two smaller homes (1 was a rental) at full pop … but then did my stupid monster home buy (had to get it out of my system : ) ….. but moved back to reality three years later, taking a light beating on my McMansion but moving back down to a normal sized home on a nice normal street. The early 90’s were tough times. Many of my neighbours were going bankrupt or bleeding heavily, you could see it on their faces …. but many kept a fractured smile in place anyway and said “we’re fine” (with one eye quivering). Four years ago I bought a great little townhouse in a nice gated community for $460K in the slow period around 07/08 (at least it was slow that month in this town). I could happily live in this place the rest of my life. Along my travels, I’ve been able to ride a wave or two when it helped, and duck under the BS (like now) when it helped. I paid cash for my first house in 82 (as a 24 year old) and kept that trend going to this day.

Anyway ……. the reason I wanted to write today was …… If there’s one thing I notice different now, it’s that all the players involved ….. banks, mortgage lenders, your neighbour, real estate agents, any real estate board, governement, all levels of the media (who fill their papers and TV space with new home ads and TV shows) ….. ALL ALL ALL are masters of lieing, denying, deflecting, and spinning untruths to keep the lie going. It is so hard now for the average Joe to sift through the carefully presented and manipulated information, the graphs, the pie charts, hand picked words and wonderful brochures to get the truth. This blog is great for presenting real facts and information to help a semi inteligent person realize the right thing to do. A sh!t storm is starting …. anyone heavily leaveraged in real estate should make adjustments now. Because if they don’t, I feel it could be 10 years + before this pipe full of crap unplugs.

#140 Arshes on 05.22.12 at 2:26 pm

#71 TRT on 05.22.12 at 2:24 am When I can buy a house for 10% less than what it sold for a month or two ago, then i’ll believe a correction is upon us.

Until then,

keep up the biased, wishful thinking everyone.
——————————————————–

Don’t worry by the end of this summer, you’ll be thinking otherwise

#141 ANONYMOUS on 05.22.12 at 2:57 pm

” GFC ” — What’s that?
is that a new form of ‘GIC’

Close! — Garth

#142 Junius on 05.22.12 at 3:17 pm

#136 Balmuto,

This is my fav line – ““Many borrowers use HELOCs to invest in capital markets or even for their own business purposes,” CAAMP says in its submission.”

First of all, I would like to see the evidence of this. I believe this would be a fraction of what they use the money for. Most of it is consumer goods – IMO. Again, we could argue that stimulates jobs but that is not the point.

The point is that the way we have structured the economy we are sharing this risk. Here is a thought:

Get rid of the CMHC.
Get rid of “Too Big to Fail Banks” by increasing their reserves and make them sell off their investment arms.

Then the mortgage industry blow its brains out lending or borrowing from each other as much as they want and all go bankrupt together. And no bail outs.

#143 Mr. Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 05.22.12 at 3:21 pm

#139 2 centsCanadian

“A sh!t storm is starting.”

You got that right brother! Listen to the wind real carefully and you can hear them. The increasing noise of flapping wings, that roar that is starting that is going to build into a full blown crescendo of SH!THAWKS engulfing this fair land of ours!!

#144 Junius on 05.22.12 at 3:25 pm

#139 2centsCanadian,

You said, “It is so hard now for the average Joe to sift through the carefully presented and manipulated information, the graphs, the pie charts, hand picked words and wonderful brochures to get the truth.”

You are 100% correct. The consolidation of media over the past few decades coupled with the declining revenue has created the era of news by press release and the death of journalism. The media business needs the Re revenue to much to discuss the issues and even if they didn’t bend they have long ago fired most of the people who could figure this out.

Our broadcasting business is now the highest in corporate concentration in the English speaking world. More than 85% of our media is owned by 4 companies – Bell, Shaw and Rogers in English Canada and Quebecor in Quebec. Of every 2 minutes of TV a Canadian watches 1 minute is on Bell Media. This is all a result of “market forces” according to those who believe it is good for us.

Just look at the damage this lack of accountability is causing and it makes you really wonder about the future of our democracy and society.

#145 KingBubbles on 05.22.12 at 3:29 pm

The writing is on the wall in Winnipeg

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/05/22/mb-housing-prices-winnipeg.html

#146 Foggy on 05.22.12 at 3:30 pm

Round 3 today for Facebook and it plunged $3.00 at the opening bell. As of now it’s hovering a bit above $32. It seems like this is a struggle between the forces of reality trying to take it down vs flaky dot-comers who will try to rationalize it’s value potential.

#147 Junius on 05.22.12 at 3:31 pm

#120 Truth Hammer,

I agree with you. I think more and more people are cross border shopping for necessities. I heard 2 people at the office mentioning today they headed to Washington State over the weekend for necessities. Traffic is really spiking.

However I disagree with your comment on “ship of fools” bureaucracy. I believe they know exactly what they are doing by changing the way they measure unemployment and inflation. Dishonest – yes. But they know exactly what they are doing.

#148 Dontcallmeshirley on 05.22.12 at 3:50 pm

Sentiment is important, but not as important as those OSFI guidelines becoming regulation.

That little Flaherty move advanced the timetable by 6 months. We wouldn’t be seeing a price drop in Vancouver without the “new” requirement to prove income.

Today’s Globe story says OSFI will finalize regulations by the end of June. Not by coincidence, this is when the PCs will get Bill C-38 passed into law.

#149 harden on 05.22.12 at 4:01 pm

Re: Van West

On May 10th, I noticed a nice new listing , character house asking a little over $1.5 million. It stood out considering a Kerrisdale location <$1.7 million. The address is 6356 Vine Street. Curious as to what I'd find, I went to the first open May 12th, when offers were to be accepted. It was a great location and the house was livable, albeit a bizarre floor plan inside. Interestingly, myself and the agent were the only people there.
I guess their anticipated bidding war never occurred- as I noticed today the listing has been deleted and re-listed (under MLS #V951586)… with a significant asking price increase… to $1.689 million. Good luck!

#150 Sebee on 05.22.12 at 4:08 pm

#12 thinker on 05.21.12 at 10:03 pm
Facebook

Anyone remember that that Casino Rama commercial?
“In the face!”
“No, it’s in your face.”

#151 jess on 05.22.12 at 4:13 pm

Aussie taxman targets NZ trusts
ROB O’NEIL
The Australia Taxation Office has New Zealand trusts in its sights as part of its huge Project Wickenby tax avoidance probe.

ATO commissioner Michael D’Ascenzo last week warned Australian taxpayers against avoidance schemes that use New Zealand administered trusts as a way to gain tax-free income.

The warning is another blow to New Zealand’s financial standing, coming as news broke that the country had, along with Russia, been turfed off a European Union anti-moneylaundering “white list” because of weak regulation.

Australians who use New Zealand foreign trusts while earning their income from Australia were last week cautioned that the schemes are being investigated and are part of the ATO’s Project Wickenby sweep. …

#152 triplenet on 05.22.12 at 4:15 pm

#107 Joe Q.

Re-listing at a higher price is a sure sign of a bidding war that didn’t go the seller’s way. If the seller refuses all bids over his initial asking price, he either has to withdraw the listing or re-list at a higher price to avoid charges of false advertising. After over-asking bids have been received and rejected, he can’t continue to advertise the home for sale at the same price.
__________________________

I hope you’re not charging for your legal advice.

#153 I'm stupid on 05.22.12 at 4:32 pm

I’m so disappointed that Facebook didnt hold it’s ipo price until the stock could get shorted. On the bright side those that must wait 90 days to realize paper gains may only get $15-20 a share. 100billion my ass.

#154 Devore on 05.22.12 at 4:35 pm

#77 Canuck Abroad

It’s been proven every time. Real estate is such a huge portion of western economies, when it tanks it takes the economy with it. This slows down household formation and increases household size, at the same time as speculators and overleveraged owners put up their empty suites and properties for rent to recoup some of their costs. Until these trends reverse, rental prices aren’t going up.

#155 timbo on 05.22.12 at 4:37 pm

http://www.bankoftheinternet.com/will-america-ever-recover-from-the-housing-crisis

“Meanwhile, up to two-thirds of bank-owned residential properties are not yet on the market, tying up the industry in ways that will take years to unravel. Maybe someday the number of housing sales will start to creep in the positive direction again, but the majority of Americans believe that the recovery is still years away.”

interesting that msm is preaching all is good before the next leg down…….

http://metronews.ca/news/canada/233303/tax-rich-canadians-to-close-income-gap-report/

“Although similar trends in Canada and the U.S. maintained growth in middle class incomes until the 1970s they have since run out of steam,” says author Lars Osberg, an economics professor at Dalhousie University, in Halifax. “Globalization, technological advances, a drop in unionized work, and a deregulated labour market have contributed to stagnant real incomes for most in Canada and the U.S. since the 1980s.””

You mean debt has kept things going? And here I thought it was hard work , damn……..

#156 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 4:48 pm

Am I gone Garth? I didn’t think that was bad. Grand Guru, like you are. My friends didn’t find it offensive. Be kind, we are still recovering from May 24.

#157 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 4:53 pm

Okay, lets have a ruling, who wants me in or out?

#158 Investx on 05.22.12 at 4:54 pm

It’s surprising to see that Toronto prices have not inflated anywhere near as much as the other the cities (according to the chart). Toronto has been pretty flat so far. Not much of a Toronto bubble on the chart.
I guess it’s different here.

Don’t count on it. — Garth

#159 Arshes on 05.22.12 at 5:06 pm

#156 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 4:48 pm Am I gone Garth? I didn’t think that was bad. Grand Guru, like you are. My friends didn’t find it offensive. Be kind, we are still recovering from May 24.
——————————————————–
Hmmm kinda wish i read your comment more closely. I Just skimmed it. Didnt see anything really bad????

The “Slit Someones Throat to Get Ahead” comment from Karie was the worst comment i’ve seen on this board. You can tell no humour or jesting or even a provoking tease in that one.

#160 Toronto_CA on 05.22.12 at 5:09 pm

Most of the people I know who use HELOCs do so for home renovations that they think will improve their home resale value and add equity (ain’t gonna happen when the bubble collapses and even if it doesn’t…) OR to pay off high interest credit cards or unsecured lines of credit which were used to buy vacations/goods.

Anecdotal I guess, but I’d wager that is much more common than using a HELOC to invest in stock markets (esp post 2008 GFC).

#161 Foggy on 05.22.12 at 5:13 pm

Beach Girl – your sense of guilt is actually refreshing. No one here could possibly decide if you should be gone because we have no idea what you posted. One deletion isn’t a crisis. I like your pesonal anecdotes that you occasionally add here. Gives a bit of levity to all the facts, figures and posturing.

#162 bigrider on 05.22.12 at 5:18 pm

#88 Garth to Bigrider-” Can you afford a single family home in 416 or Vancouver”.

Yes I own my home outright, about a 1mill give or take but I understand the point you are trying to make, that is, most can’t. I get it.

My comment with regard to the chart you posted today is that the parabolic lift or peak it shows for Miami and Los Angeles and less so for Calgary and Vancouver does not seem to appear for the GTA.

The line chart for the GTA does not seem to show extreme as the other four do, in the order I have listed above.

Thats all I’m saying.

#163 bigrider on 05.22.12 at 5:25 pm

#101 Nonno.

Not yet. I wouldnt mind your coles notes version to start nonno.

I will ask you again, do we know each other?

Something tells me we do and you are not “fessing up”

#164 Nonna Nicola on 05.22.12 at 5:27 pm

ehhh ohhh!!! geta baka inda house and uncloga da toileta, u dont know about da stoka marketa, you are a realestata agento trying to fola bigarida. He no want ur help so liva him alone and puta da bottle downa…

#165 NoName on 05.22.12 at 5:58 pm

#153 I’m stupid on 05.22.12 at 4:32 pm

It was funny all this hype over FB ipo, it is interesting to see how “people” in the know are overlooking the fact that FB has inserted it self in between user and his/her friends only. Heatmap shows that only few people pay any attention to banner with adds. I will not be surprised if FB will start charging for status update or attaching some “relevant” advertising, in not so distant future.

http://phill.co/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Facbook-Eye-Tracking-Heat-Map-2011.jpg

While Google did exactly same but it did insert it self in between consumer and product or product information.

http://cdn.seomoz.org/img/upload/google-heatmap3.jpg

What’s the deal with women and shoes?

http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4fb27685eab8ea5e4f00000a-590/notice-how-the-men-are-not-looking-at-the-shoes-at-all.jpg

#166 CoreyMc on 05.22.12 at 6:02 pm

Did you ever think that most people that come here are trying to make money at real-estate?

#167 Tony on 05.22.12 at 6:07 pm

Re: The comparison is valid – urban region to urban region. And the BoC will not drop rates. — Garth

They will when Canada is back in recession this fall.

Of course not. — Garth

#168 Harlee on 05.22.12 at 6:11 pm

There are at least 3 differant”Don’t” adages that we all learnt in school (if you were lucky to have some smart teachers) that pertain to the economy,housing,personal finances and life in general. They are:
* Don’t try to be someone you aren’t.
* Don’t believe everything you read.
* Don’t bite off more than you can chew.
Unfortunetely, (all to often)as we “grow up” and get more “sophisticated” we chuck these rules out and dig ourselves into a big hole .
KISS – Keep It Simple, Stupid. You’ll linger longer…
Bonus Don’t (and possibility the most important!):
* Don’t ever ,ever stick your tongue on anything metal when it’s cold outside.

#169 Harlee on 05.22.12 at 6:16 pm

Actually I goofed up on that first one. Should be:
* Don’t pretend to be something you aren’t.
Be a good boy scout and always acknowledge your mistakes…:-)

#170 Bench Warmer on 05.22.12 at 6:28 pm

Larry Scammell, vice-president of investment with Unity Investments. Larry Scammwell! Buah hahahaha!

#171 doc on 05.22.12 at 6:36 pm

Re Beach Girl’s comment. I found it ironic rather than mean. I’m biased of course cause she’s dead cute and real men are susceptible to that.

#172 truth hammer on 05.22.12 at 6:41 pm

Junius , I know exactly what you mean……but the question I have to ask myself is ‘why the wanton destruction’…..at this point in time…….do the Machiavellian dogs smell blood and feel that now’s the time to strike?

I was standing in a line at a dentists office today behind a woman who was screaming about hearing that a bill went through first reading today that will allow ne immigrants to collect CPP/OAS in three years instead of ten…..middle age middle class woman…screaming mad….told me somethind when fury has reached the burbs. The other woman was sixty and had no pension after losing a huge amount in the last years of ZIRP and collateral damage to the markets.

It ain’t just the students who’ll be marching on shitty hall before long……eveyone’s in a panic……..well….except for me and you.

#173 disciple on 05.22.12 at 6:47 pm

#135 Blacksheep… The content is correct but incomplete. Intention is inflammatory, to keep the natives restless. Like a dog owner who rubs his/her dog’s nose in it. See my first post today for more info… In the meantime, check out why Ashlee Simpson and Fergie are BFF’s:

http://xdisciple.blogspot.ca/2012/05/exposed-jessica-simpson-is-fergie.html

#174 Karie on 05.22.12 at 7:03 pm

@159 – Arshes, I never wrote a comment about slitting anyone’s throat. You can check through.

My only grievance on here is when people want revenge or wish bad upon home owners. If people have bought 3 or 4 houses – good for them! They are trying to improve their lot in life. Why call them greedy? They are taking risks that they are hoping will pay off for them financially. I wish them well. I wish everyone to do what they think will bring them financial freedom whether it be through stocks, owning a business, real estate, whatever… I don’t think people should be bashed for trying to make a huge profit from a stock, art, gold or anything. Is that greed or jealousy? It’s people trying to take advantage where they see opportunity. If someone bought Apple way back when and made a ton that’s awesome and same with those having bought real estate!

#175 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.22.12 at 7:10 pm

@ #156 Beach Girl
When I read your post at 5:45am vancouver time I immediately thought ” Da girl washed her pills down with Vodka! On a Tuesday morning! Trooper!
Sat hi to “Sand N” for me.
Its POURING rain here in mouldy old BPOE.

#176 Daisy Mae on 05.22.12 at 7:14 pm

Prospects look good for Winnipeg homebuilders – Winnipeg Free Press*

********************

Here we go again….this time it’s Winnipeg. I told my friend to take it all with a grain of salt — it is NOT ‘different’ in Winnipeg.

#177 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.22.12 at 7:20 pm

Beach Girl . Not to worry.

Garth “Deleted” me yesterday. 1st time!
I think I know why but I cant say because it would involve lawyers.

I’ve joined the ranks of the “deleted”.

A crusty crew.

Now if I could only find my ShiztuPoodle cross called BPOE……..

#178 TimV on 05.22.12 at 7:22 pm

I googled the term “You get what you geld”, and somehow I ended up here. Where am I and what am I doing in this hole?

I don’t think that’s the question. Where did you lose them? — Garth

#179 I'm stupid on 05.22.12 at 7:23 pm

#165 No name

I agree. Google was brilliance. Advertise products and services to people actively searching for them. Facebook is like all other b.s internet business, provide something for free to get traffic then try to sell advertising. The problem with that platform is that people only want free the free portion. Good luck trying to have the majority pay for profiles, sure some will but not 100billion worth. Netflix will be bankrupt in 5 years. Why would I pay anything for rerun tv shows and old movies? I could log onto 1channel or any of the other hacked channels and watch anything for free.

#180 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.22.12 at 7:24 pm

its raining even HARDER in mouldy old BPOE !

If anyone in the RoC cares…… :)

#181 I'm stupid on 05.22.12 at 7:26 pm

My guess the next big thing will be music on demand for your car.

#182 DM in C on 05.22.12 at 7:26 pm

“I don’t think people should be bashed for trying to make a huge profit from a stock, art, gold or anything. Is that greed or jealousy?”

Greed. Huge profit implies risk — and risk is what made the speculators bet hugely on RE.

I have no problem with anyone being successful — it’s the ones who brag about their financial prowess (when in reality only their timing was right). Or the ones who max out HELOCs on the bet that their RE can provide them with the good life for the foreseeable future. They’re the ones who will cry to the gov’t when things turn, and I do not want my taxes to help them out AT ALL.

I don’t want revenge on people — but I am not above schadenfreude.

#183 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.22.12 at 7:26 pm


#52 earlymidlifecrisis — “I really hope there is a karma, it is so needed here.” — Indeed there is, as each will find out for themselves at their appointed time. Sorry to hear about your job loss.

“If this is just the start it will be expensive.” — Guess who picks up the tab? That’s right, we do.

#157 Beach Girl — In.

Seems that FB is (eventually) screwed. One banker put FB’s share valuations at US$10 / share. Someone knew, and didn’t tell.
*
Haunting pix “This is the world the money-junkies create for your children.” wrh.com; Is 2013 the real 2012? 5:17 clip “Germany’s relentless push for Eurozone-wide austerity is driving the global economy towards catastrophe.” The Fourth Reich is here; Jamie Dimon Unintended slip-up? Plus Jamie Dimon Conflict of interest; 8:28 clip Greece and California — two peas in a pod; Odammit US$5 trillion lie / depression; US welcomes China to take it over, buy most of its plants and companies, etc.; FB and the US Economy Both are poorly managed; Furious Hedge funder bet lotsa moolah on FB; Houghton-Mifflin Ch. 11 “It comes as cash-strapped state and local governments defer or cancel education-related purchases, reducing demand for textbooks for students from kindergarten to 12th grade.”; Stacked Deck for the banks; Education doesn’t count for much anymore; IMF telling UK how to run their bank accts. properly; 24:27 clip The bank mafia; Youth Joblessness Tipping (crisis) point?
*
Iran – UN Nuke deal reach, Israel pissed off (good); NAU – Globalism and LOST “The Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST) places the UN in control over 70% of the earth’s surface and resources. LOST will move the global Elite miles ahead toward their goal of global governance.”; Agenda 21 / ICLEI Giving the UN free rein to set up a one world govt.; 2:02 clip Out of chaos, order. The NWO, using Chicago and Montreal as examples; Obomba – Africa Next continent to fall? 22:13 clip Uzbekistan — Torture training capital for the west; US War Vets Tossing war medals back; Windows 8 Mozilla’s products are much easier to run than MS’s stuff; Dione Saturn’s moon; Scientists drilling supervolcano’s teeth.

#184 Daisy Mae on 05.22.12 at 7:36 pm

#120 TRUTH HAMMER: “You think people are cross border shopping for bargains? No……they’re trying to survive and crossing the border for milk and cheese has become a nessesity.”

***********************

What are they saving after using up a tank of gas? Anyway, it’s a nice days drive…

#185 Daisy Mae on 05.22.12 at 7:42 pm

#126 JUNIUS: “The blame is first with the Federal government and the banks are a distant second.”

*****************

Make that a “close second”…..

#186 Daisy Mae on 05.22.12 at 7:58 pm

#139 2CENTSCANADIAN: “(making 19% on GIC’s).”

************************

I remember those days….I had a GIC earning about 12% at that time….and RBC called me in and actually tried to talk me out of my remaining term!

#187 Onemorething on 05.22.12 at 8:14 pm

NOS LMV – always a pleasure you know!

“. . . this is happening four full years after Alberta real estate hit its bubbly high-water mark, and at a time when oil prices have been near, or over, $100 a barrel . . .” — How long does Canada take before it catches up to the US? About 3 – 6 years? Then it’s just about bang on. Can’t say we weren’t warned.

YUP we laid this out when this blog started didnt we. Time flies, you cant buy it back but sitting on the sidelines knowing the above does make it worth while.

“At the same time, Mainland China buyers are mostly absent now and buying in the US because prices are too high. This is the recipe for a hard landing.” — Just like China, and it’s co-ordinated. The dominoes are crashing all around us. Where’s BPOE and Mikey the Realtor when all the fun is happening?

All areas of Chinese RE is a mess. We are feeling the aftershocks in ASEAN countries. Note to those who believe in the Asian Invasion – it never happened and worse those who did come are now dumping RE as th money always returns home to service debt.

#188 Westernman on 05.22.12 at 8:15 pm

Beach Girl @ # 91,
Congratulations Garth, about time you deleted one of this things’ posts – nice to see the delete sword spread around a little…

#189 Nonno Nicola on 05.22.12 at 8:20 pm

#163 Bigga Rider

#101 Nonno.

“Not yet. I wouldnt mind your coles notes version to start nonno. I will ask you again, do we know each other?”

Youa disappointa me Bigga Rider. Dese booka, dey talka wid da besta traders in da world. Stanley Drunkenmiller, Jim Rogers, Bill Lipshultz, Michael Marcus, Monroe Trout and so ona. Dese toppa traders, dey talk about da trading philosophies dey all hava. You no can putta dis informazione into wad you calla “da Coles notes…” So da yourselfa a favore and go buya dese booka. Do informazione is da power! As to a youra questione of whethera we knowa each other, how da hella am I supposa knowa dat answero when we talka behind dese pseudonyms alla da time??

#190 TRT on 05.22.12 at 8:24 pm

BC students protest to support Quebec counterparts.

Do they realize they pay twice the quebec rate and it is they that should be protesting for themselves. Is Dumb an overstatement??

#191 Westernman on 05.22.12 at 8:26 pm

Disciple @ # 131,
Man, you are one whacked out weirdo, maybe you and Beach Girl should get together…

#192 Junius on 05.22.12 at 8:28 pm

#172 Truth Hammer,

You said, “It ain’t just the students who’ll be marching on shitty hall before long……eveyone’s in a panic……..well….except for me and you.”

Again, I agree. The problem is that the wool has been pulled over their eyes for so long they will be really disillusioned soon when they realize how tough the future will be. The years of easy money and endless credit blinded people to the reality.

I got lucky. I fell into a situation a few years back that opened my eyes and caused me to buckle down early. I have a great career situation and am in a better position than most to survive into the future. However I still recognize that collectively things are getting tougher.

I do fear how the public is going to react over the coming years.

#193 Karie on 05.22.12 at 8:32 pm

@182 – DM in C – schadenfreude – I had to google that!

If I see a woman travelling the world with her family, getting pedicures every month, chairing charity galas – I think wow – how does she do that? If I were to ask (many people don’t share their financial success secrets) and she were to say – I just max out my credit cards, I would just smile and think to each their own.

On the other hand, if she were to share with me some great travel website, tell me about her charity work and how it’s changed her life or how she buys her beauty treatments once a year at some customer appreciation party at 75% off or whatever – just making stuff up here – then I’m all ears!

I carefully read what Garth says and when people on this site share stuff like how they save $20,000 a year and are renters for example- I’m carefully reading those kinds of posts too.

Agree people are responsible for their actions and should not cry to the government!

I don’t mind too much if people brag about their financial prowess even if timing was a factor. I don’t loathe wealthy people, I mostly admire them!

#194 Devore on 05.22.12 at 8:49 pm

#109 CP

This is what I don’t understand…

The home is too far from Vancouver for her to live there and commute

/…/

When Lana separated, she moved in with her sister to be closer to work, while her estranged husband continued to live in the townhouse

So it was not too far to commute from when she was “building equity” (all gone now) and had “pride of ownership” (evaporated), but it’s too far now?

Oh, the things homoaners put up with.

#195 Harlee on 05.22.12 at 8:55 pm

@#188
OMG, I never thought I’d see it but West-Man believes in sharing ! He’s turning into a socialist !

#196 Boomer on 05.22.12 at 8:55 pm

#168Harlee: I don’t think you “learnt it”, I think maybe you “learned it”, well maybe not! Man I thought you recovered at #169 but I guess not. Oh well, be a good scout and admit your mistakes, right.

#197 daystar on 05.22.12 at 9:23 pm

#148 Dontcallmeshirley on 05.22.12 at 3:50 pm

The drop in Vancouver sales and values isn’t coming from OSFI, its coming from an overvalued market with buyers exhausted on debt and from media bubble talk (that lessoned noticably as of late, never underestimate the power of media). Things have slowed in Asia and Europe as well which are likely to impact of flows of overseas money headed into Canadian RE but since there are no hard numbers to go by concerning external investment on Canadian RE, its always been speculative as to how much world macroeconomics plays a role on RE investment wise but observationally the world is having more than hiccups economically and this can effect incomes of potential buyers here and abroad making buyers think twice. The number #1 reason I can see is a seriously overvalued Vancouver market leading the list of reasons going forward. I say all this mainly because OSFI drafts haven’t become regulation yet? When OSFI regs come into effect they will have a serious impact from what I’ve read but this too, is speculative until we see the fine print:

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/app/DocRepository/1/eng/guidelines/sound/guidelines/b20_dft_e.pdf

#198 daystar on 05.22.12 at 9:38 pm

#157 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 4:53 pm

In. BTW I like your humor. Was it you who asked about pensions a lil’ while back?

http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/isp/oas/oasrates.shtml

Tables of amounts is a link worth cruising. Its important to know this stuff when it comes to decisions on Canada pension splitting, OAS and taxation, even alimony in some cases. There is a 1-800 # to call but it has to be done so by seniors to further clear up any confusion should there be unanswered questions going forward.

#199 Harlee on 05.22.12 at 9:45 pm

Boomer @ 169
Yes I realize that my communication skills aren’t perfect. Go easy on me..I have a lot on my mind these days . Another birthday coming up and lots of business to attend to. I must thank Garth for hosting this blog site and providing me with information,good advice,entertainment and sometimes sexy pictures. Good man.
Are you mocking my boy scout days,Boomer ? Those were good times. We used to camp out at Pike Lake : http://www.saskparks.net/PikeLake
I think I goofed up that first adage with another saying that goes something like “Don’t try to live your life as someone your not .Instead be yourself and then improve upon it.” Or something like that..It was said by Hobbes or Thoreau or one of those old dead philosopher guys,I guess…
It’s been raining here all day in Scratchatune,so I stay inside and watch the baseball and hockey game on TV. A good way to spend a day off . Time for another coffee…

#200 Tonto on 05.22.12 at 9:58 pm

Garth you really compare Abbotsford to Port Moody??? Have you aver been to Port Moody? You are Hilarious!!!

#201 Beach Girl on 05.22.12 at 11:38 pm

#191 Westernman on 05.22.12 at 8:26 pm

Disciple @ # 131,
Man, you are one whacked out weirdo, maybe you and Beach Girl should get together…

____

Love you too, Brokeback.

Thanks to everyone else. I will try to behave. Ya, Fargo.

#202 Westside Battle Tactics – “I guess the anticipated bidding war at $1.5M never occurred. The listing has been deleted and re-listed with a significant asking price increase… to $1.7M” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 05.23.12 at 9:01 am

[…] “On May 10th, I noticed a nice new listing, character house asking a little over $1.5 million. It stood out considering a Kerrisdale location <$1.7 million. The address is 6356 Vine Street. Curious as to what I'd find, I went to the first open May 12th, when offers were to be accepted. It was a great location and the house was livable, albeit a bizarre floor plan inside. Interestingly, myself and the agent were the only people there. I guess their anticipated bidding war never occurred- as I noticed today the listing has been deleted and re-listed (under MLS #V951586)… with a significant asking price increase… to $1.689 million. Good luck!" – harden at greaterfool.ca 22 May 2012 4:01pm […]

#203 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.23.12 at 9:10 am

Beachgirl……
I’m stealing your ‘fargo” and giving it to my pet dog BPOE.

Like “Brokeback” He deserves it…….

#204 GregW, Oakville on 05.23.12 at 12:24 pm

Hi #61 Nostra, Thanks for that link ‘turtle the size of a car found’. You may find this interesting then, ‘Death Bell Cave found’ with a link to 13min video at this site too,
http://rockwatching.wordpress.com/