Buyers at the gate

Mike and his squeeze were out for a walk when fate led them to an open door. Beside it was a message from God.

Well, actually, it was a Re/Max poster. ‘Open House’, it said, but the place looked divine. Sort of new, on a not-too-scuzzy a Vancouver street, rentable basement suite, asking $1.4 million. So they went in (”Nothing better to do – what can I say?”).

Turns out this was the second of two scheduled public viewings, with the realtor trying his best to engineer a bidding war. All offers were to be held back, then presented at a specific time on an appointed day.

  “After a couple of routine questions to the listing realtor,” says Mike, “it became clear that the majority of the basement in this place includes unauthorized square footage (nonetheless included in the advertised total square footage). A quick call to City Hall informed me that, upon re-inspection, there would be a requirement for the owner (current or future) to convert the developed livable space in the basement back to crawl space.”

Turns out Mike has a conscience. “When talking to the city agent, I think I might have let the specific address slip out accidentally, just in case one of their inspectors might be interested in a detour on the way back from Tim Horton’s.”

So what happened? The offer day came and went. No bidders. The property is still on the market, but for $50,000 more.

“The whole sleazy scene makes me sick to my stomach,” adds Mike. “Hopefully it is another sign that, the more dirty tricks realtors bring out of the bag, the greater the likelihood that this market falls apart.  I feel bad for the families that will be caught in the crossfire.  They say ‘Caveat Emptor’ but, really, how are families supposed to protect themselves against this degree of willful deception when the media, banks, politicians, regulators, et al. are all essentially complicit in the scheme?

“I’m honestly thinking of picketing outside of their next open house on the public sidewalk with flyers indicating that the basement is unauthorized and would have to be converted back to crawl space if identified as such by the City.”

Of course, this blog post is not about 4152 Balkan Street. Or Mike. Or crawl spaces where moldy humans replicate. It’s all about sentiment. In real estate, nothing matters more – a lesson economists should learn.

A few of them who toil for BMO birthed a report Friday with this astonishing statement: “Vancouver, one of the world’s most expensive real estate markets, appears – so far – to be tracking the soft-landing path seen by Calgary and Edmonton in 2008.” Senior bank economist Sal Guatieri pointed out, correctly, that VanCity housing sales are dropping faster than underwear at a stag, with areas like the tony west side and moist Richmond leading the way. The reasons: dumbass prices, tighter lending and fading Asians.

This, says the bank, will lead to a gentle readjustment of the real estate landscape. “Softer demand, coupled with a rising supply of condos, means sellers no longer have the upper hand, and price growth has moderated.”

Says Sal, “Buyers are starting to regain control over pricing.” And indeed they are. But they’re also pissed. The insane run-up in valuations in what’s essentially a regional city, where middle-class families are now economic refugees, will not soon be forgotten. Nor the vendor greed. The realtor deception. The industry arrogance. The political jingoism. The hype and fluff leading to a sense of buyer panic. All of it juiced by irresponsible agents and sycophantic media creating an atmosphere of buy now, or buy never. The inevitable results were stress and anger.

Ditto in Toronto, which has until recently been the bidding-war capital of the world. As I described some weeks ago, the sale of virtually every home in a demand area was turned into a blind auction, forcing bidders to make wild stabs at what the right price might be. Buyers were rendered powerless, victimized by a process which allowed no conditions, demanded a certified cheque along with the offer, denied negotiation and put every single card into the seller’s hands.

“This disgusts me,” Jason said. “People take off work, call their bankers, family and friends. They sit and wait, sometimes for a day or two in anticipation. They have pre-home inspections done and whatever else they might have to do and finally they put in an offer.

“Any buyer involved is sickened by the process. No interest rate changes here, no financial crisis, no CMHC rule changes, no worry about a housing crash. Just disgusted and fed up. It changes the mindset of buyers in the region.”

See what I mean? In these cities, as in others, buying a home’s been turned into a bitter, emotional, worrisome act. This is not just a seller’s market. It’s despotic tyranny. And the peasants are revolting.

There is no soft landing possible.

Just read this pathetic blog’s comment section. Buyers want revenge. The greed that turned sellers into rapacious gluttons will soon become the fear that disables them. Evidence that the market’s truly turned will have cash-laden renters roaming the streets with pointy sticks and pitchforks. Vultures, low-ballers and mercenaries will storm the gates, sully a few maidens and pillage their way into the heartland. No listing will be safe. Every offer will draw blood. Conditions, waivers and releases will hulk the landscape and block the roads.

And the smoking ruins of realtors, visible for miles, will drift from a pyre of Open House signs.

234 comments ↓

#1 armpit on 05.11.12 at 8:18 pm

furrrrrrrrst….timer

#2 Ross Thomas on 05.11.12 at 8:22 pm

Sounds great! So patience *is* a virtue.

#3 zeeman on 05.11.12 at 8:30 pm

second……

garth, Benjamin Tal, from cibc has also said that housing market will drop. this guy has never said anything like this for the last few years that i heard him on the news talking about real estate.

bidding wars however are still happening in the lovely city of markharm and richmond hill…mostly from ham….has the ham from vancouver moved over to here…

#4 Finally on 05.11.12 at 8:30 pm

I finally sold my DT Vancouver Loft. Was listed 3 times over the past 15 months by 3 different agents. With 5 price drops, 10 open houses, countless waste my time showings and finally that 1 single offer. I was so scared they would walk I gave into every single one of there demands. Sold 8% below assessment, but I would have gone 20% below if it came down to it. Happy to be renting a place that’s double the size, but at the same price as my old mortgage, maintenance and taxes.

Now I’m sitting on over 500K in cash waiting for the market to crash. I’ll buy a house when it’s down 30%, but I’ll start looking when it’s down 25%. Cash is King!

#5 Willy H on 05.11.12 at 8:35 pm

“Evidence that the market’s truly turned will have cash-laden renters roaming the streets with pointy sticks and pitchforks. Vultures, low-ballers and mercenaries will storm the gates, sully a few maidens and pillage their way into the heartland. No listing will be safe. Every offer will draw blood.”

Vive la révolution !

Where is the best place to set up the guillotine?

#6 Arse on 05.11.12 at 8:46 pm

At the other end waits the Barbarians At The Gate.

#7 Smoking Man on 05.11.12 at 8:51 pm

Garth you drink a redbull before you wrote this. On a sunny note I’m at woodbime and I’m up 300 bucks

It’s a miracle any other casino it would be thousands. This joints slots are so riged for the house. You can’t order two drinks at a time and if it was not owned by the govt they would shut it down as a fire hazard.

No room to walk and no exits. Disaster waiting to happen

#8 anon on 05.11.12 at 8:53 pm

Actually, this place had at least TWO offers. My understanding was that they were close to, or above asking but because they were expecting a bidding war, they bids were just not as high as expected.

So really, the realtor didn’t even want LIST price for this place. This realtor has used similar tactics in the past which made me wary to begin with. Really, how is this shit legal? Makes realtors look no better than the typical old school used car salesman (no offense to used car salesmen).

#9 Alero01 on 05.11.12 at 8:55 pm

Congrats to poster#4. Your wisdom will not go unrewarded and you will live a happier life without the stress of waiting for your home to sell. There are worse things in the world than renting while sitting on a pile of cash in the bank. Kudos to you!

#10 Smoking Man on 05.11.12 at 8:56 pm

Finaly

you are sitting with pocket aces right now and you hit one on the flop. Still two more cards to come. Your in good shape but. Been there done that it aint over till its over

#11 Wes coast on 05.11.12 at 8:59 pm

Buyers want revenge? Buyers made this problem happen because they continued to buy … and some of them as Finally in post #4 …made a sweet profit in the deal. The biggest issue underlying is that we feel entitled to housing (and hence want revenge as if this was personal) It’s not an entitlement. Those buyers that rushed in will pay the price for their part in messing up housing except those that got out at the right time. The only people who should be picking up a pitchfork and rioting is the renters who didn’t cause this issue yet will pay increased taxes to bail out CMHC when it blows. The bigger discussion here needs to be about our willingness to bastardize our free market system and allow the government to artificially manipulate growth of credit which always has long term negative consequences for stability and sustainable growth.

#12 Chris on 05.11.12 at 9:07 pm

Having gone through the Real Estate Investment Network ringer in Calgary, I am glad that the chips are finally falling for the Vancouver and Toronto sellers.
Buyers take back the rights you deserve…

What infuriated me the most about the Calgary market was how helpless you felt in just a short span of time regarding prices, offers, and anything that was in your control. It was 6 to 8 months from already too high to absolutely skyrocketing. Ridiculous. Contrary to what Bob Truman (ass hole) says on his blog, the prices are not (now) what they were at 2007 levels. Not even close. But don’t try to post a comment. He’ll never approve a dissenting voice, and he just might sue you…

The REIN folk treated you like as if you were stupid. Buy now or be priced out forever… Anyone who’s a millionaire made it through real estate… They’re not producing land anymore – all of the bull shit lines…

That being said, let the party begin…

#13 Steve Thompson on 05.11.12 at 9:11 pm

We may be entering the ultimate housing market bubble. As baby boomers look to downsize and cash in the equity in their homes to fund their retirements, the supply of certain types of residential real estate will likely exceed demand, pushing prices down faster than would normally be expected in a housing market downturn as shown here:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/12/next-housing-bubble-is-this-perfect.html

#14 John G. Young on 05.11.12 at 9:12 pm

#180 Westernman on 05.11.12 at 6:46 pm

“One just can’t play the “victim” role without trying the shaming language, can one?”

Let’s see now — you’ve called me “pervert”, “deviant”, “weirdo”, “creep”, “squishy”, “girlie”, etc. etc. etc. etc. — and I’m sure those don’t came anywhere near the language you used in the literally dozens of posts that were deleted.
So I guess that would make you the expert on shaming language, wouldn’t it?

Oh, and for the umpteenth time: I am nobody’s victim, least of all you.

What a vile, hateful person you are.

Sieg Westernman!

#15 syd on 05.11.12 at 9:12 pm

BMO Deputy chief economist Doug Porter considers the GTA the “hottest” market in the country right now. Friday the bank warned that the softening in Vancouver could see foreign investors, who helped fuel the upward push in Vancouver prices, start looking to Toronto.

They wish. — Garth

#16 blase on 05.11.12 at 9:14 pm

The U.S. markets were down again, as was the TSX.

But, value stocks are up. “Get your MSFT! Get your PEP! Get your IP!”

Great P/Bs P/S P/Es out there folks. This ship is riding high in the water.

The Boomers will be fighting over value stocks in 2 years when they discover they can’t live on the 2% from Orange or falling bonds.

“My house is my shepherd” and repeeeat.

#17 John G. Young on 05.11.12 at 9:14 pm

#172 };-) aka DA on 05.11.12 at 6:47 pm

DELETED

Wow, it’s August already?

Oh, that’s right, it’s May 11.

#18 Spiltbongwater on 05.11.12 at 9:18 pm

Do you really think city inspectors have time to go inspect unauthorized suites? I believe 2 Surrey city councillors have admitted to owning houses with unauthorized suites. I would estimate from the listings I get from my realtor, about 35% of homes have unauthorized suites in them.

#19 DonDWest on 05.11.12 at 9:22 pm

Of course, this blog post is not about 4152 Balkan Street. . .

I see what you did there. . .

I missed it. what? — Garth

#20 mel in victoria on 05.11.12 at 9:24 pm

Garth……..Due to my late response ,I don’t think my last post rec’d much exposure …….May I repost my comments?

Thank you…

No. — Garth

#21 Freedom First on 05.11.12 at 9:26 pm

Just think. Many of the people who will be selling in the RE drop, will be the very people who bought at the top of the market. This will be more and more true, as not only the prices drop, but the interest rates begin to rise………the question to them, at that time, will be: “What did you learn?”………

#22 Inglorious Investor on 05.11.12 at 9:32 pm

Perhaps one day, the practice of engineering a bidding war will be illegal. As it should be. But of course, soon it won’t matter.

However, it should certainly be illegal for a single agent or broker to represent both seller and buyer. How to you spell conflict of interests? R-E-A-L-T-O-R.

#23 Jenn on 05.11.12 at 9:37 pm

Pheeww subject removal day. Last of the 3 properties has now SOLD. For sale signs are sprouting up 2 and 3 on every block in the hood. (Vancouver burb) Have never seen this many. We tried to rent but not one of those landlords were interested in us, could have been the 140 lb dogo or the cats or not having references. We did find a cute rancher close to the breadwinners employment thus avoiding any bridge tolls which are the future here. Pay cash and hunker down for the coming market adjustment. Next time to get my investment house in order. Having income from money and not tenants will be a change, probably a pleasant one. Thanks Garth

#24 Can it be? on 05.11.12 at 9:39 pm

The house in my neighborhood involved in a bidding war still didn’t sell… Hmmmm. Gta slowing down.

#25 Canadian Watchdog on 05.11.12 at 9:39 pm

Don’t have the stomach to handle gold price volatility? Wait until we see $100-200 daily price swings. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

http://i46.tinypic.com/yjb5j.png

#26 P & T S on 05.11.12 at 9:40 pm

Angry Mob (comprising those who followed the MSM and are now facing the financial consequences of their actions) – coming to a town / village / city near you, anytime soon, seemingly everywhere in the Western Economies!

Just how many Politicians of whatever flavour will be willing (or maybe even able) to tell ’em to suck it up – especially when the Angry Mobs will comprise a significant proportion of the voting population.

Interesting certainly, and with our demonstrably rather spineless, “Focus Group” led Political “Masters” the outcome for the less spendthrift amongst us might not be quite so rosy.

Just waiting for the first of the “We’re all in this together now so we all have to do our thing for Society” comments in the MSM.

#27 Chaddywack on 05.11.12 at 9:42 pm

I still don’t get it…..if the house doesn’t even get a single offer why RAISE the price $50k. That makes absolutely no sense……

#28 DonDWest on 05.11.12 at 9:43 pm

#21 Freedom First

I wouldn’t expect them to learn anything. I expect a lot of tears – and playing victim.

#29 When will it end? on 05.11.12 at 9:43 pm

Do you really think city inspectors have time to go inspect unauthorized suites? I believe 2 Surrey city councillors have admitted to owning houses with unauthorized suites. I would estimate from the listings I get from my realtor, about 35% of homes have unauthorized suites in them.

^^ it’s not an unauthorized suite (though it had a rough in for one) – it’s unauthorized square footage. BIG difference. The house has about 600sq feet that once was crawl space that was illegally developed. The total square footage far exceeds that approved for their lot size. Maybe city hall won’t do anything about it buy would you want to be the buyer that takes that risk?

#30 John G. Young on 05.11.12 at 9:55 pm

#180 Westernman on 05.11.12 at 6:46 pm

“John G.Young @ # 179,
It was only a matter of time before you trotted out the old “Nazi” saw, wasn’t it?
One just can’t play the “victim” role without trying the shaming language, can one?”

Is your memory really that short? To wit:

#176 Westernman on 05.11.12 at 4:07 pm

“Van grrl @ # 174,
I knew that comment would draw out the Feminazi’s out…”

Is this just another example of your many, many double standards?
Or are you just really, really stupid?

#31 P & T S on 05.11.12 at 9:56 pm

Garth – Whether we agree with you or not (and 99% of the time we certainly do!) your writing style is so very addictive, we’ve developed an unfortunate dependency on your regular posts.

Today’s particularly rousing, the conclusion conjuring – visions of pitch-fork and scythe – armed armies of infuriated (maybe financially-jilted??) buyers prowling the streets looking for the tell-tale signs of leased high-end cars, and the “Flippers and Speckers” whose actions have led to this socioeconomic disaster-in-progress.

Civil War meets the Crusades!!

And, although we are both essentially peace-loving, in our heart of hearts, we’re both thinking “Bring it on Folks, and damn the consequences!!”

#32 Van guy on 05.11.12 at 10:01 pm

#10 Smoking Man on 05.11.12 at 8:56 pm
Finaly

you are sitting with pocket aces right now and you hit one on the flop. Still two more cards to come. Your in good shape but. Been there done that it aint over till its over
————————————-
I know what you mean. I had that hand and then rivered a full house A’s w/K’s. Buddy hit a royal flush. I lost $1100 on that hand!! But wait! That’s a bad beat!!! $20k for me. Thank you very much. I love poker. I don’t have to give half my earning to god damn taxes.

#33 mid-Ontario on 05.11.12 at 10:01 pm

“Evidence that the market’s truly turned will have cash-laden renters roaming the streets with pointy sticks and pitchforks. Vultures, low-ballers and mercenaries will storm the gates, sully a few maidens and pillage their way into the heartland. No listing will be safe. Every offer will draw blood. Conditions, waivers and releases will hulk the landscape and block the roads.

And the smoking ruins of realtors, visible for miles, will drift from a pyre of Open House signs.” – Garth

I do believe that with prose like this that you are morphing into an area of talent not readily visible in earlier postings. One day this blog will be studied in English class rather than Business class. Quite brilliant!

#34 thinker on 05.11.12 at 10:04 pm

These days the only bubble that seems to be around in Canada is websites about Canadian Housing Bubble

Anyone see the jobs #’s – prices are going to go higher folks.

#35 Ole on 05.11.12 at 10:06 pm

I had to look up the words jingoism and rapacious. Are you going Stephen Lewis or Rex Murphy on us?

#36 Debtfree on 05.11.12 at 10:07 pm

Goth Turner the turning of the screw . love the sign .I’ve got to save that one .

@ John Young that westernguy .He’s only fantasizing . He should meet my gay brother in law . He’s the broke back mountain type . Rides a Harley works out way to much and always hopes he runs into a gaybasher in the act . He says when he does . He’s going to tear him or them a new” orifice ” (my word not his) . I bet the western guy is just wanting to be close to you . why else would he keep coming at you . it’s the law of attraction . Like money attracting money . Birds of a feather . You should be flattered . He’s probably got a walk in closet(nudge nudge wink wink ) full of shoes , dresses and his own copy of the rocky horror picture show .

#37 Stinky the Fish on 05.11.12 at 10:09 pm

I ain’t buying sh-t. Sucka.

#38 dd on 05.11.12 at 10:29 pm

JP Morgan … losses of assets that were suppose to be less risky (hedged) is starting at $2 Billion. They do not know the full loss yet.

Can you imagine when the deal mature on the risk trades?

This is potentially another Lehman.

No it’s not. — Garth

#39 furst on 05.11.12 at 10:30 pm

FUUURRST…Nawt!

#40 John G. Young on 05.11.12 at 10:33 pm

#36 Debtfree on 05.11.12 at 10:07 pm

“@ John Young that westernguy .He’s only fantasizing . He should meet my gay brother in law . He’s the broke back mountain type . Rides a Harley works out way to much…”

Forget Westernman — is your BIL single?
Sounds like my kinda guy! :)

Cheers,

John

#41 Mr Buyer on 05.11.12 at 10:38 pm

There is no soft landing possible.
…………………………………………………………………….
Stunning. Absolutely stunning. I of course agree whole heatedly as the evidence is all around me.

#42 Don on 05.11.12 at 10:42 pm

#34 thinker on 05.11.12 at 10:04 pm These days the only bubble that seems to be around in Canada is websites about Canadian Housing Bubble

Anyone see the jobs #’s – prices are going to go higher folks.
**************

You mean the 56, 000 students getting full time work for the summer??? Doesn’t this happen every year.

Low ball sounds like a good future strategy. Ready and Waiting.

#43 Don't read his post on 05.11.12 at 10:44 pm

Hey SMOKING MAN. There is no poker at woodbine.

#44 Don't read his post on 05.11.12 at 10:51 pm

I can tell you that for the first time in ages the inventory in Stouffville Ont. is frozen. Nothing is moving. It’s been about 3-4 weeks. The funny thing is that prices have come off a little and they actually look attractive

#45 TurnerNation on 05.11.12 at 10:55 pm

Weekend fun for Smoking Man. He stole the customer list!:

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C:RY-1956013&symbol=RY&news_region=C

“The order Mr. Voldeng seeks to appeal was handed down on April 3, 2012, just weeks after he defected from Edward Jones. The firm had complained that he resigned without notice and the next day sent letters to a number of his 705 clients in which he explained to them the merits of switching to RBC. He did so in violation of his employment agreement, which specified that he was not to solicit clients for six months after leaving, Edward Jones claimed.”

#46 vatoDETH on 05.11.12 at 10:57 pm

The main thing, is that general sentiment about the market is swinging the other way in mainstream media. We hear more and more talk of housing bubble, hot market, condo craze, etc. It’s really starting to pick up momentum now.

Personally, I can’t wait for the first immediate collapse. I’m tired of spending all my money on rent! My net worth is jack all, but at least I have no debt.

The initial collapse could make it harder for renters in the beginning. I’m not looking forward to that part.

This is one huge mess you created Harper, the Conservative Party, Flaherty, Carney, banks, realtors and people signing up for debt. Thanks for all of your contributions.

#47 Burnt Norton on 05.11.12 at 10:57 pm

#27 Chaddywack on 05.11.12 at 9:42 pm

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bait-and-switch

#48 noise on 05.11.12 at 10:58 pm

That last paragraph was poetry.

#49 disciple on 05.11.12 at 11:01 pm

I taught My 6-year old daughter how to play poker only a few months ago and she cracked my pair of aces today.. I felt like Smoking Man for a moment. But then I slapped myself and remembered poker isn’t life, poker is just a game. But just for fun, check out the poker face of Bill Gates, aka Dr. Richard Riegelman:

http://xdisciple.blogspot.ca/2012/05/bill-gates-is-also-dr-richard-riegelman.html

“”The objective,” he says, “is not only to teach students personal health and wellness, but to help them understand the bigger picture issues, from environmental health to pandemic flu to healthcare systems.”

#50 Debtfree on 05.11.12 at 11:03 pm

DELETED

#51 vatoDETH on 05.11.12 at 11:08 pm

Gordon Nixon President and Chief Executive Officer of RBC:

“When we look at the overall marketplace, there might be pockets of vulnerability but we remain quite comfortable,” said Gordon Nixon, chief executive officer of Royal Bank of Canada “Frankly, I’d like to see the rhetoric come down a little bit.”

I highly doubt that he’s too concerned about the RE Market, since it’s all CMHC insured anyway. He was paid $11-million in direct compensation for 2010. Good job [email protected]! :-)

#52 45north on 05.11.12 at 11:10 pm

Evidence that the market’s truly turned will have cash-laden renters roaming the streets with pointy sticks and pitchforks.

in the US, evidence that the market turned is that sales dropped off a cliff. People who didn’t have a mortgage could drop their prices, people who did couldn’t sell, couldn’t move. Financial stress led to family stress. Banks became zombies – they couldn’t declare their losses. Governments launched programs to “keep families in their homes”. In many cases people who accepted the government programs, after they checked the paperwork found themselves worse off.

tracking the soft-landing path they wish, I wish, we wish – not going to happen that way

#53 Skip Breakfast on 05.11.12 at 11:11 pm

I fail to sympathize with the angst and whining from buyers who are so tired and dejected as they bid on houses in spiralling auctions. What should the seller do for you? Give you a deal because you deserve granite counter tops?! You’re playing the game. Don’t bid if you find it so appalling. If you were the seller, you’d do the same thing. It’s called a free marketplace.

I don’t find the selling “tactics” appalling. And I’m not referring to outright lying when I say “selling tactics”. There are legal protections against outright lying. I’m talking about pricing a house “attractively” with the full expectation the seller will generate bids far higher than asking. It’s not the seller’s “fault” bids are out of control. It’s the whiney buyers doing the bidding. They can all offer less than asking if they want. Oh, but then you won’t get your granite counter-tops! Sorry, I don’t care about that. I don’t think granite counter-tops are a god-given right. Safe and warm shelter might be–but that’s not what people are bidding on here. They’re bidding with the same intoxication that sellers are selling with.

I do, however, care that people are beginning to resist paying the crazy prices–that makes me feel great, actually! Not because sellers are evil. But because banks have been irresponsible. And a lot of naive people are going to get badly, badly hurt the longer this continues. Buyers need a wake-up call along with sellers. The madness isn’t helping anyone…except those smart enough to get out now while they’re ahead! Of course, that’s always at a buyer’s expense. Such is capitalism. I don’t think whining buyers want the alternative to that either.

#54 Canadian Watchdog on 05.11.12 at 11:15 pm

New condo assignment holders starting to panic and list units on Craigslist before construction completion http://i48.tinypic.com/33p61vo.png

http://toronto.craigslist.ca/search/rea?query=assignment&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=

Just like musical chairs, only a few will get a seat.

#55 coastal on 05.11.12 at 11:37 pm

“Was talking to a realtor that said that there is a development on Burdett Street which advertises that a great number of units have been sold when in fact there are only a couple . The others are “agreements for sale” made by sub contractors that will never complete.”

#150 John Prine from the previous thread :

Thats the same deal with the Telus Garden. They just made the Vancouver media pump out last week it is sold out when infact it isn’t and was confirmed by the Ian Watt real estate guy who has email proof. Once again the MSM advertising dollars pave the path for outright lying of the facts to whore their shoeboxes.

As per Benjamin Tal, he also says at the Vancouver pow wow the other day that interest rates don’t need to go up cause borrowing growth has slowed. Hello Benny ? Does he mean the hockey stick chart that looks like the peak of the PNE roller coaster’s first hill climb ? Just cause it slowed .1 % suddenly borrowers reined in their massive debt borrowing within like one month of hitting the peak ? Meanwhile the Credit Counsellors and others there with a brain shake their heads in disgust at such utter BS. Pass the barf bag for the ride back down Vanhatten Mountain.

#56 Narrowgate on 05.11.12 at 11:40 pm

Can’t wait! The greed is starting to rot, the stench is everywhere.

#57 Chris K on 05.11.12 at 11:41 pm

Unfortunately no change in sentiment here in the GTA. The Upper Unionville project in Markham just opened for preview yesterday and it’s been traffic mayhem since just to take a peak (they’re not even taking offers yet). You would think that the circus was in town with white tents and cops directing traffic.

Though certain that this madness will end soon, who can afford $500-600K towns for starter homes, and $900K 42′ lots that are not even full sized lots?
This will definitely not end well, especially for those who do end up buying during this frenzy with closing dates in the latter part of 2013 and into 2014.

#58 Soylent Green is People on 05.11.12 at 11:45 pm

Quite brilliant = barf barf barf

P.s. somebody tell stephen harper that garth turner is running a dating hooknup site nowvyuk yuk

Google ray novak
He used to live in harpers backyard
.
.
.
.
Pssst flu vaccines are a drug co. And gov. Scam

I saved that pic too, for thatvreform party harperCON

#53 Skip Breakfast = good pist i mean post

#59 MB on 05.11.12 at 11:53 pm

Garth, some interesting graphs and an article to boot from the Globe:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-buying/which-canadian-property-markets-are-most-at-risk/article2427557/

#60 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 12:03 am

Mike and his squeeze were out for a walk when fate led them to an open door. Beside it was a message from God.

Well, actually, it was a Re/Max poster. ‘Open House’, it said, but the place looked divine. Sort of new, on a not-too-scuzzy a Vancouver street,
—-
Garth, I don’t say this too often, but man i love U.
Friggin hilarious!

now, to back to reading what you were getting at, quit distracting me!

#61 Industrial Guy on 05.12.12 at 12:07 am

The Banksters are at it again. JP Morgan Chase & Co. is a rogue bank ….
America’s biggest financial institution is playing Russia Roulette with the Wold’s financial system … again. It’s like these idiots learned nothing from 2008 .. other than the Government will bail us out if we blow the whole thing up again.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1177111–j-p-morgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-is-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-world-banking-systems-olive

The Overnight markets are grim ..

http://citywire.co.uk/money/overnight-markets-surprising-jpmorgan-loss-hits-stocks/a588320

#62 van on 05.12.12 at 12:16 am

The realtor is well known for such tactics… but it works for the buyers, which is why you’ll run into that realtor quite often in the Main/Fraser area.

#63 k on 05.12.12 at 12:27 am

Garth

You are first an entertaining, (I am not being obsequious) sp? and enlightening writer.Keep up the good work. I humbly believe you are right about things to come. God bless us all.It has always been thus. Truly we never learn. K.

#64 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 12:28 am

If you understood gold the way I do I would ask you to marry me and move to DC. Not that I’m gay.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

#65 VT on 05.12.12 at 12:30 am

Trump investor looking to bail.

http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/tor/reo/3003266172.html

#66 Burnt Norton on 05.12.12 at 12:30 am

#53 Skip Breakfast on 05.11.12 at 11:11 pm

Bait and switch marketing?
False advertising square footage?

Sorry Skippy, that’s the same kind of “free marketplace” as where I got ripped off in Rome when the vendor deftly gift-wrapped a rock in lieu of my paid-for camera.

A-holes, one and all.

Oh, and banks are supposed to be responsible? LMFAO. To shareholders, maybe.

#67 thinker on 05.12.12 at 12:35 am

#54 – a whole market for punters

http://www.assignit.ca/

#68 thinker on 05.12.12 at 12:41 am

# 54

Basically a whole pre-market flip exists now in Toronto Condo’s

http://www.assignthiscondo.com/
http://www.assignit.ca/
http://www.condoassignments.com/sellinganassignment.html (good old Bobby from Van)

WTF? This is just insane

Then you can use this guy and get your no money no doc mortgage today at 4.99%

http://www.canequity.com/no_money_down_mortgage.stm

So i can buy condo’s pre construction with no cash, then flip them and a whole ecosystem is setup to support this. And we are focused on bidding wars?

Can I walk away from the Condo? This seems US circa 2006 right here in Canada that is available to anyone.

#69 Ross Thomas on 05.12.12 at 12:42 am

@ #16

Not all bonds will be falling.

#70 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.12.12 at 12:43 am


“Beside it was a message from God. There is no soft landing possible. Vultures, low-ballers and mercenaries will storm the gates, sully a few maidens and pillage their way into the heartland. Nor the vendor greed. The realtor deception. The industry arrogance. The political jingoism. The hype and fluff leading to a sense of buyer panic.”

This pretty much sums up #19 DonDWest’s comment — “Of course, this blog post is not about 4152 Balkan Street. . . I see what you did there. . .”

The possibility of a Cdn. revolution becomes a probability each day. Sure, there were 60K permanent jobs created — unemployment increased slightly in KTown — but this has become a violent, vengeful society and the mood of the populace has taken on a darker tinge.

“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near” — Jim Morrison, “When peaceful revolution is impossible, violent revolution becomes inevitable.” — JFK and this.
*
Higher NG prices? Soften us up first; Celebrities who had it then lost it; Napster or Limewire; China Bear and Russian Bull; Ghost City in NM; The Future of Shopping? Haiti Goldmine Recall the ‘quake? Other than oil, here’s another reason why the US Navy had ships parked just outside, 15 more countries with large oil reserves and IMF report; The Truth About Gold; Adios, America.

Greece Coalition no go; Cdn. Friday Links; Global Tax Collector; Politicos and lobbyists are the huge cash cow of any country; FAdvisors and the Bag Lady; JPM — Not Too Embarrassed; Japan Doing a Euro? Cash in American holdings to refloat; Qatar buying in Shell; Stash the Cash; Where’s the Beef? China, JPM, Gold etc. “With the cartel levered as much as an estimated 100-to-one in the gold market, JP Morgan is trapped into a game it cannot win in the end.” BTW, if JPM ‘lost’ X billion in those trades, then who won? Derivatives Beast; Condo flipping; Charts that Count.
*
Never mind Fukushima, what of Mt. Fuji? Monster Sunspot (or flare); Cause – Effect or Effect – Cause? Brain Building Foods; Parking the Car Where did it go? Fools Gold Brinks curse; Good for Them Ditch society to be self-reliant; Tokyo Rose in more ways than one; Oklahoma fracking ‘quake?
*
disciple — What say ye?

#71 Carpe Diem on 05.12.12 at 12:44 am

Some idiot realtor (or owner) on the street where I rent a 2 acre + mansion for the cost of a house in suburbia decided after dropping their ask price 6OK to relist +36K. I called shenanigans and e-mailed the realtor about it – no reply yet ;-)

I might be interested in this place minus 150K. I’ll wait. This place hasn’t moved in over 8 month. 2 other homes sold pretty quickly at -120K – the ask price was fair.

Bad ass boomer with an 100K mobile home expect a gen-xer to come in and pay for his retirement. HA!

I’d rather keep renting and wait for his neighboor to sell for much less.

Boomers hope an gen-x dude to come up and buy their home …. but we gen-x are 1/2 the population of boomers. Not only they depend on us to buy their homes but also make them look awesome at work. That’s why, as a consultant, I do make them look good and make twice they do …

Boomers are are ants and I’m the boot being merciful until the right time.

#72 Ross Thomas on 05.12.12 at 12:45 am

@ #25

You can make any long-term graph look scary by failing to use a log scale on the y axis.

#73 Ross Thomas on 05.12.12 at 12:48 am

@ #34

Take a guess which sector saw the most job increases.

#74 ANONYMOUS on 05.12.12 at 12:52 am

Everyone; let me explain to you the problem here = IT IS ‘YOU’ , YOU ARE THE PROBLEM HERE.

– Everyone here is hoping for a 15% to 50% price correction just so that YOU can jump in and buy up a place. See what I mean?

Everyone wants to buy, they just want to buy at a cheaper price that’s all.

The TRUE tide will turn when people just give up on wanting to buy, and the majority of you will rather just rent for the convenience of being able to move whenever you want, rather than buying a house.

But from what I see here at this blog, 95% of you are still hoping to buy some time soon, and that is the problem with people now, you are all still ‘HOUSE HORNY’.

#75 Charles Ponzi on 05.12.12 at 1:08 am

They say ‘Caveat Emptor’ but, really, how are families supposed to protect themselves against this degree of willful deception when the media, banks, politicians, regulators, et al. are all essentially complicit in the scheme?

Buyers want revenge on the media, banks, politicians, regulators, et al. Ponzi schemes don’t happen by themselves but will the guilty ever be punished?

#76 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 1:09 am

Garth, i can’t even read this, my attention span is now shorter than my dink. I’m dreaming of the west coast lately. Canada has been a blast but I need more. Oregon is calling and when the phone rings, I answer.

Adios Amigos! For whom the bell tolls i listen.

Winds of change are blowing me to set sail.

This raft is about to float.

Time is but a moment, followed by another.

Beauty is in the eye of the BEHOLDER.

True love is precious.

#77 Charles Ponzi on 05.12.12 at 1:13 am

Buyers want revenge and renters with cash want house prices to drop quickly. I think renters have a better chance of success.

#78 Charles Ponzi on 05.12.12 at 1:17 am

Soon it will be frustrated sellers wanting revenge. Why were sellers not warned that house prices can go down as well as up?

#79 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 1:22 am

How many Cohibas can one man smoke in a session?
I just finished number 2. Rum chasers must be the cure. How else did Fidel live so long.

Cuba, Viva la Cuba!

I’m going to capitalize that paradise and bring them freedom. PROPERTY RIGHTS! Acquire, control, dispose. And make it a heaven. Not that i haven’t found heaven already there but it’s hell for the residents. Is that exploitation? sorry. Not. Maybe according to a student from Quebec. Only the rudest people in Canaduh.

#80 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 1:41 am

Before I go. Those god damned Marxist in Europe are going to pay for their sins. Unfortunately it’s the population of those nations who are going to pay for the prior high life of their politicos.

Will Marxism just die already! Where do we need to bury the dagger? Or is it a case of harry carry?

Christ, now I forgot where I was going???

Oh yeah. Harry carry. The spelling is correct. That what distracted me.

Europe is toast. The Euro is right behind the $.

Good bye and good night. Gold will be money again soon and when everybody realizes it it will be monumental!

Remember that old document, what’s it called… oh yeah… the US constitution. It’s about being an individual. Are you an individual? Yes you are so it’s about you. Do you want freedom? If not let those of us who do go. Please. Piss OFF! If you don’t we will destroy you and your country like what is happening in France, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Cuba, North Korea, East Germany and Auschwitz. Welcome to the gas chamber, breath deep and pray to your falxe god to save you. Peace out.

#81 Tim on 05.12.12 at 1:52 am

if there’s no soft landing, then how come prices in Vancouver are still ridiculously high? What has to happen for them to tank? A depression?

#82 The dude on 05.12.12 at 1:57 am

Mike has a conscience by letting city hall know the address of the property with unauthorized accommodation. Here’s a news flash mike if there wasn’t unauthorized accommodation in Vancouver you’d pay a hell of alot more in rent than you currently do. Think about that next time you cut you rent cheque. By the way the feature sheet for the property might just indicate unauthorized accommodation. So it might have been disclosed already. Being an agent myself and having personally been on the selling and buying side in my experience all this talk about greedy sellers is true to a point but one should ask if the shoe was on the other foot would you or me or anyone else not want to get the highest price possible and for buyers to pay bellow market value. both ends motivated by greed my self included. Honesty try it sometime you might like it.

#83 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 1:58 am

Yes, yes, yes, i know, get it all out….
You haven’t head the half of it. But you know what I’m saying. This is a turning point in human history and Garth and I are grabbing the rutter. Follow Garth and listen to me. I’m not a mystic., I’m a rationalist libertarian. If I don’t get your ear then listen to Ron Paul this year and follow his lead. Your children will thank you. Time to throw the bums out!

It’s a long sad story but the ending will be glorious if you live in the world where myself and the Smoking Man live. SM, we need to go to Malaysia, are you up for a road trip? Lets travel back in time to a new world and help them prosper while we excel. To hell with this rat trap! Run on a wheel if you want too but gold guns and butter are awaiting for those who seek it.

#84 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 2:02 am

Sorry for all the negativity, i feel like an anode.

Lets finish on a high note!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp3tLLVLPao

Yeah baby, yeah! Ah Leah!

#85 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 2:18 am

BMO Deputy chief economist Doug Porter considers the GTA the “hottest” market in the country right now. Friday the bank warned that the softening in Vancouver could see foreign investors, who helped fuel the upward push in Vancouver prices, start looking to Toronto.

They wish. — Garth

A couple of notes on this: trying to say that foreign money might “start” looking at Toronto is downright silly, since foreign money has been in the Toronto market for a LONG time (who do you think is flipping all of the condo pre-construction assignments and dumpy bungalows spec’ed to become McMansions?).

Secondly, the bidding war stupidity in Toronto is not limited to foreign money. I’ve seen numerous $1M-$2M houses in Midtown/Lawrence Park sell in the first week with multiple offers, and most buyers are locals who actually move in and live there — as shocking as that seems to anyone thinking that only foreign $$$ is driving bidding wars.

The other observation that I’ve had in seeing Toronto’s bidding wars — there are a TON of buyers of $1M+ homes that appear to be “normal” working families. Many are move-up buyers (e.g. selling a condo or townhouse or semi-detached house and buying a detached place), and I highly doubt that these families are coming in with all-cash offers like the stories that Realtors like to tell about all of those magical offshore buyers driving the market.

#86 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 3:35 am

‘Caveat Emptor’ but, really, how are families supposed to protect themselves against this degree of willful deception when the media, banks, politicians, regulators, et al. are all essentially complicit in the scheme?
—–
It’s amazing how a pre approved death pledge can make a pile of steaming shit smell like a bouquet of roses.

On my third Cohiba now, and I’m into the second phase of Garth’s Friday night masterpiece. I’ll be done soon. While you wait you should check out this amazing art.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wod-MudLNPA

#87 TRT on 05.12.12 at 4:04 am

The Globe & Mail “paper” has sunk to new lows.

Blatant propaganda in their immigrant series of articles. Read the comments relating to their stories.

They will never get a cent of mine after this….ever!

However, Castro can….his bottle of Havana tastes better than the Havana sold here!! …and the cigars….priceless!

#88 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 4:12 am

A genius is only appreciated once he exerts himself upon the world, before which time, if ever it comes, he is simply a helpless nothing.

Send your progeny to a private school if you want to but a brilliant puppy will exert itself upon the world irregardless if the time is right.

This is how a free nation would deal with the Marxist students in Quebec. 99% to zero in a day. A battle would ensue and quickly put an end the feuding parasites. The sooner we privatize out education system the better. Business men know how to prevent and deal with problems a million times better than lying bureaucrats.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqzX8nIbOAs

#89 TRT on 05.12.12 at 4:32 am

One of two things will happen:

1) market stays flat…inflation comes roaring back, dollar devalues, etc.

2) crash of biblical porportions.

No soft landing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No 15% and a melt. Just 40% down.

#90 TRT on 05.12.12 at 4:36 am

Regarding Junius….

I miss the posts about her pet monkey.

#91 neo on 05.12.12 at 6:49 am

#34

The job growth isn’t occuring in Ontario or Quebec which represents over 50% of Canada’s GDP. The growth is mostly out west. Ontario has actually been lagging all year.

#92 neo on 05.12.12 at 6:54 am

#38

JP Morgan’s revenue this year will be close to $100 billion. Two billion is a rounding error. That said, it impacts confidence in the financial sector that hasn’t fully healed from 2008. That and JP Morgan was considered the best of breed with the best management team. They also denounced suck activity just a couple weeks ago. So this really shocked people.

#93 Deb on 05.12.12 at 7:06 am

Beautifully written and right to the point, Garth. You know, I sense that there is a budding novel inside of you that someday, I hope, will see fruition.

#94 Benson on 05.12.12 at 7:16 am

# 85 T.O. Bubble Boy

the inventory in the Yonge/ Sheppard and Yonge/Lawrence has increased two fold in the last month.
Those areas are no longer experiencing bidding wars.
I live in the area and noticed sellers are reducing the price and some home sit for months. Things are changing , more open houses something a seller never had to do before.

#95 House on 05.12.12 at 7:25 am

Isn’t the phrase economists learn an oxy”moron”.

#96 John on 05.12.12 at 7:37 am

It’s starting to sink in now. I can’t make it out though. It’s a chant. Growing louder…

“Renters with cash roaming the streets”
“Renters with cash roaming the streets”
“Renters with cash roaming the streets”

Nice one. Until you actually look at who the renters are, what they do and how they got there. And the reality of the derivative-backed “cash” ( digits) they’ve got in the bank. And exactly what “streets” mean in another kind of economy.

But forget all that…it’s just reality talk. The system itself BS. What’s that got to do with me? Nonsense. I EARNED that “cash” in the “market” 2008-2012. The casino PAID me my slot machine win. Screw everyone…now gimme my cheap house!

And from the “Your mother wears army boots file”:

“This is another Lehmen”.

“No it’s not”.

You know, strangely, I’d have to agree with that one. It most certainly is not another Lehmen.

#97 raider on 05.12.12 at 7:37 am

It’s happening and it’s never different.
Let me share the following lines:
“Known history shows little alteration in the conduct of mankind. […] Means and instrumentalities change; motives and ends remain the same: to act or to rest, to acquire or to give, to fight or to retreat, to seek association or privacy, to mate or to reject, to offer or resent parental care. Nor does human nature alter as between the classes: by large the poor have the same impulses as the rich, with only less opportunity and skill to implement them.

Nothing is clearer in history than the adoption by successful rebels of the methods they were accustom to condemn in the forces they deposed.” (Lessons of History, Will & Ariel Durant, 1968, p 34)

#98 Gary on 05.12.12 at 7:44 am

Movie quote; The End with burt Reynolds confessing his sins. First I sold Real Estate” Selling Real Estate isn’t a sin my son’ It is the way sold it.

#99 travelite on 05.12.12 at 8:28 am

The hyperbole today was priceless. Why aren’t you this good on ‘This Week in Money’ :)

#100 clo38 on 05.12.12 at 8:47 am

The problem isn’t that people are putting themselves in a pool of other buyers that are in a frenzy. Those people who would pay 100k over asking are another thing altogether. They are… what they are.

We’re talking about the people who can afford the asking price and need a place to live. Live being the word, to make a home. These are the people with more than 10% down, ready to buy. Want to be close to work. Want to be close to family. Want to live in this city.

The problem lies with the sellers and realtors.

When a couple offers a normal deposit, asking price and some conditions and the seller/realtor says no, the buyers wonder, ‘ok this is fishy but its a negotiation.’ They offer a larger deposit, just like the seller/realtor asked, they take away the financing conditions and perhaps even the inspection. This all takes time.
Then the seller/realtor says… ‘that’s not good enough’
The buyers wonder… ‘well why didn’t you just hold off offers then if you wanted a bidding war’?
Its because the realtors were taking the current offer, and shopping it around to the other buyers, wasting time asking for things like a 20k deposit instead of 15k.
This process can take a day or two. Its all the time a sneaky and deceiving realtor/seller needs to play off the fears of other buyers. Because the rules aren’t in place to stop this, they believe they aren’t doing anything wrong.

Everyday in the GTA now realtors are seeing this tactic failing, more and more. If you are watching the listings, like most do here, then you are seeing many of the prices go up after a new listing is posted. I’ve seen many 50k rises in price, some as high as 150k more. Many times where offers are held until a certain date, only a couple of offers come in, 5k more than asking, and 15k more than asking. And they are being turned down.

Each listing becomes a consuming process, a guessing game for a buyer. Are they honest? Are they going to be fair? Are they lying about things? Are they hiding things? Have they followed the rules?

These are not the questions we should be worrying about when buying a house or when dealing with a realtor.

#101 Market Bull on 05.12.12 at 8:50 am

Buyers want revenge?

No, buyers want a house. And in the GTA they can jump up and down all they want and it won’t change a thing. It’s a sellers market plain and simple.

Bidding wars will continue until the listing inventory increases. And that’s no time soon.

You need to get out more. — Garth

#102 Regan on 05.12.12 at 9:06 am

The Ontario government developed a green energy plan to promote new energy sources and get us off coal generation. It offered a premium to buy clean energy (solar, wind, biogas etc.) from local producers and 2 years later it dropped that premium by 30%. No problem! Improvements in technology, lower cost materials and experienced suppliers/installers completely absorbed it. It’s still a 10-15% ROI for a solar rooftop tie-in. This is the kind of thing people should be doing with their money! This is what ‘home improvements’ should look like. I hope that when the curb appeal crazies have passed we will finally be creating real wealth and innovation in Canada instead of wasting our capital and attention on real estate.

#103 John on 05.12.12 at 9:37 am

BMO Deputy chief economist Doug Porter considers the GTA the “hottest” market in the country right now. Friday the bank warned that the softening in Vancouver could see foreign investors, who helped fuel the upward push in Vancouver prices, start looking to Toronto.

Does anyone who works in finance actually think before they speak? Supposedly smart investors are going to go and buy high. Right…

#104 Q on 05.12.12 at 9:45 am

Only bankers, pretend economists, realtors and other “self interested” sorts, would refer to a 50%+ “coming collapse” as a “soft landing”…or maybe they’ve been spending their commissions on BC bud and really are that dillusional….

#105 Mike on 05.12.12 at 9:48 am

#82 The dude on 05.12.12 at 1:57 am

It’s called ethics, dude.

Try it sometime, you might like it.

#106 Mike on 05.12.12 at 10:02 am

#100 clo38 on 05.12.12 at 8:47 am

Exactly.

#107 When will it end? on 05.12.12 at 10:10 am

#82 – again it’s not a unauthorized suite – it’s unauthorized square footage. House approved for x sq feet, owner develops beyond what he/she is approved for. Some do this in the attic, some basement. Here, almost 1/3 of the entire sq footage is NOT allowed by city hall (nor has it been checked that it us to code). Tell me you wouldn’t be pissed paying 1.45M only to find out that close to a third of your house was illegally built. This isn’t the same as throwing in a suite in your approved basement square footage. I think City Hall and many others know there is a lot of that around.

My issue with this is this realtor is advertising this as a 2750 sq foot home knowing that a large chunk of it is unapproved developed crawl space. There is no disclosure as you are walking through or on the MlS data sheet. Instead of a disclosure, the realtor goes so far as to advertise that this place is roughed in for a suite. It don’t know if it’s legal but it sleazy. Just as it’s sleazy to list for 1.4, get offers at that price and then realist at 1.45 because you didn’t actually want asking to begin with.

Sure the free market is at work. He can do anything as long as it’s legal. In the end though, tactics like this will come back to bite him (and other realtors) in the ass. Karma’s a bitch. I sure as heck will remember Paul Eviston’s name when the market isn’t as hot and there is no way in hell I’d ever use him (or recommend him) as a realtor.

#108 Canadian Watchdog on 05.12.12 at 10:12 am

#101 Market Bull

Listings are irreverent. All that is needed at this point is a catalyst (new condo market) to send prices down, depreciating bank assets. In fact, it doesn’t even have to be in Toronto as Vancouver’s falling prices alone can hit the banks, CMHC and private mortgage insurer’s balance sheet. At that point, no bank will want depreciating assets on their balance sheet, causing interbank lending to lock-up.

No chance you say? It’s already started. http://i49.tinypic.com/28beft4.png

#109 Realtors and mortgage broker's in a panic on 05.12.12 at 10:14 am

With CHMC getting tighter and tighter rules less people are starting to qualify. Mortgage broker buddy tells me they are now not qualifying 30% or more then one in four and that number is expected to increase. People in the RE industry know the game is over which would explain why realtors and mortgage broker’s desperately post on garths blog. The house or glass condo house of cards is starting to fall apart. Buyers should sit back and watch the crash which will be worse then Canadas last housing crash in 89.

#110 bigrider on 05.12.12 at 10:42 am

From the star today. Why housing prices will continue to surge in the GTA next ten years.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1177411–toronto-vs-vancouver-which-will-have-the-highest-house-prices-in-a-decade

Scuttle this blog soon Garth before the embarassment becomes to large for you to bare…LOL

#111 Raj on 05.12.12 at 11:01 am

Yonge/Sheppard -Ground zero for condo bust.
Look at the listing,it’s crazy.

#112 TOUGH TIMES on 05.12.12 at 11:09 am

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling by $100,000K – $200,000K. All these homes are WAY OVER PRICED. Can you virgins think at all. Look at what is going on around you!

** CHMC – Has created the largest housing bubble in Canadian RE history – HELLO!!! a pee-on can qualify for a cash back or 5% mortgage. My brokers have informed me 90% of mortgages were to people like this. How do you expect REAL MONEY to compete with NO MONEY in these circumstances. Look at the US when the credit stopped, a 50% crash. NO FREE MONEY, NO RE MARKET. Taxpayer will be on the hook for the $600 billion, NOT THE BANKS. How I wish I can open a buisness and give out FREE MONEY to everyone and have the CDN gov’t back it up for me. I WOULD BE RICH!

* Jobs are still being lost. Yes I saw the figures for April, mainly construction jobs to speed up everything before RE crashes. They can’t wait to sell to all you HGTV Virgins. Remember you will be priced out for ever, so rush out and buy now!!!!

* For Lease Signs Everywhere!!! Where have all the business gone???? That’s right back to the USA and Asia. You HGTV virgins can’t compete with these countries now in term of wages and cost of living!!! Hint, the US factory working can now work for $13.00 an hour and buy a nice house porn home for $70K to $100K.

* RE is crashing everywhere globally: China, Spain, Ireland, US, UK, Austrialia you name it. But no in Canada we are different!!!!

* Europe is about to implode and the USA is slowing down again!!!

Bottom Line get onto MLS or have one of the used cars salesperson (RE agent) send you listings that your are interested. Go on to MLS, put MLS# and enjoy low balling these RE agents by e-mail (Don’t be a fool and run around to open houses etc). Remember your agent will not do this on your behalf becasue he/she is also trying to make a HUGE commission on YOU the HGTV Virgin. Once you get the other agent close to the price you are willing to pay, then, only then do your bring your agent in the deal. Ask for last 8 selling prices on property, etc. do you research and low ball the F*** out of these OVER PRICED HOMES. The crash has started and I am enjoying the low balling and Price Drops I am seeing in the GTA and outside the GTA.

Garth you are just to nice with these HGTV Virgins on this blog with your 15% melt etc. This crash is going to be minimum 35% to 50%. Really our whole economy is based on a house of cards with FREE MONEY FROM THE TAXPAYER “CHMC” propelling this bubble.

#113 Market Bull on 05.12.12 at 11:12 am

108 Canadian Watchdog: For future reference.

ir·rev·er·ent ( -r v r- nt). adj. 1. Lacking or exhibiting a lack of reverence; disrespectful. 2. Critical of what is generally accepted or respected; satirical.

#114 Garth's Rhetorical Efficacy on 05.12.12 at 11:14 am

Garth “Hemmingway” Turner!

#115 Mr Buyer on 05.12.12 at 11:16 am

#74 ANONYMOUS on 05.12.12 at 12:52 am
Everyone; let me explain to you the problem here = IT IS ‘YOU’ , YOU ARE THE PROBLEM HERE.

– Everyone here is hoping for a 15% to 50% price correction just so that YOU can jump in and buy up a place. See what I mean?

Everyone wants to buy, they just want to buy at a cheaper price that’s all.
…………………………………………………………………..
Dude that’s all is a pretty huge that’s all. That’s all was not much of a spin. How about you tee that one up again and give it another whack.

#116 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.12.12 at 11:46 am

……….has anyone seen BPOE?

I’m getting worring……

His Dog Dish is still full of treats……….

#117 GTA housing crash has started on 05.12.12 at 11:46 am

Realtor buddy tells me bidding wars are failing across the GTA as the 2.99% easy money is gone. You will notice homes priced for a bidding war but nothing happens. In fact realtors are seeing bids below the bidding war price. What do they do afterwards is rise the prices. Cheap easy credit is the only reason for high housing. Without CHMC prices would fall 50% overnight.

#118 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.12.12 at 11:48 am

” Beeeeeeee Peeeeeeeeee……….Where are youuuuuuu?”

#119 Canadian Watchdog on 05.12.12 at 11:59 am

Looks like Genworth is hiring (or hired) a Homeowner Assistance Specialist whose job includes; Short Pay-offs, Loan Modifications and Deed-in-Lieu-of Foreclosures. http://www.wowjobs.ca/job/Homeowner+Assistance+Specialist-genworth-oakville+on-12127651

Of course, debt forgiveness (like in the US and Australia) never helped Genworth’s bottom line. http://i47.tinypic.com/mh3rz5.png

One more housing correction for Genworth, and this stock will fall off a cliff.

#120 jess on 05.12.12 at 12:03 pm

108 Canadian Watchdog
re: your chart

Definition of ‘Banker’s Acceptance – BA’
A short-term debt instrument issued by a firm that is guaranteed by a commercial bank. Banker’s acceptances are issued by firms as part of a commercial transaction. These instruments are similar to T-Bills and are frequently used in money market funds. Banker’s acceptances are traded at a discount from face value on the secondary market, which can be an advantage because the banker’s acceptance does not need to be held until maturity. Banker’s acceptances are regularly used financial instruments in international trade. Investopedia explains ‘Banker’s Acceptance – BA’
Banker’s acceptances vary in amount, according to the size of the commercial transaction. The date of maturity typically ranges between 30 and 180 days from the date of issue. However, banks or investors often trade the instruments on the secondary market before the acceptances reach maturity. Banker’s acceptances are considered to be relatively safe investments, since the bank and the borrower are liable for the amount that is due when the instrument matures

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bankersacceptance.asp#ixzz1ufiardyU

#121 Incubus on 05.12.12 at 12:11 pm

Declining value

http://www.kriggle.com/

#122 Alberta Ed on 05.12.12 at 12:23 pm

Spent a few days in Toronto last week, visiting our grand-kids, and was struck by the number of condos under construction. Seemed like there was one on practically every street corner as we walked around. Can’t believe there are that many people who want to own a concrete box with no view.

#123 The dude on 05.12.12 at 12:26 pm

Re mike : I see mike it’s in unethical for Vancouver property owners to have unauthorized suites just so they can actually live in a detached house like there parents might have. I guess mike has always driven the speed limit and plugged the parking meters and sold all his used cars with the utmost ethical standards know to mankind. Mike I suggest you buy a mirror and take a good look at yourself and ask 1 basic question have I ever cut a corner in my life time? If the answer is no then you are infact an ethical dude indeed. But if you have cut some corners just to get by does that make you or me anymore unethical as the next guy?. In some instances there’s no way people can get permits for basement suits and yet they are everywhere . Sometimes ya just gotta say [email protected]&$ it and get on with life and do what ya gotta do to live in this town. The bean counters at city hall know all about unauthorized suites and they realy don’t care that much because some of them either live in them or know someone who does.

#124 Anon on 05.12.12 at 12:52 pm

I’m really curious if anyone is seriously considering that CMHC will be bailed out. How much more taxes can be put on the taxpayers and how much more debt shoved on future generations before we see non-metaphorical pitchforks and guillotines?

#125 Mark W on 05.12.12 at 12:59 pm

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/361795–report-predicts-vancouver-housing-prices-will-fall

#126 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 1:09 pm

the dude – the existence of the basement suites isn’t the problem, it’s the disclosure. Just like a former grow-op, a “newly rewired” house that still has knob&tube, or a property where renovation permits have been denied by the city.

Realtors will instruct sellers not to provide any disclosures – which keeps the deniability option open if the buyer ever tries to sue etc.

This is unethical, no matter how you look at it.
(and, is the sole reason that Mike Holmes is a celebrity, and not just some guy doing basement renos)

#127 coastal on 05.12.12 at 1:12 pm

Banks May Force Homeowners to Re-Qualify for Mortgages at End of Every Term

http://www.ctvvancouverisland.ca/2012/05/banks-may-force-homeowners-to-re-qualify-for-mortgages-at-end-of-every-term/

Amazing, a mortgage broker/agent with a conscience who speaks reality that prices can indeed go down and you can be caught in a very bad spot. The bit from the other dude about “they won’t ever call the mortgage in” is total BS. Banks are ruthless on the way down, just cause this is Canada makes no difference if you can’t pay.

#128 Keith in Calgary on 05.12.12 at 1:23 pm

Garth……..

Regarding 4152 Balkan Street in Vancouver……what else do you expect from real estate sale company whose most prominent logo is a balloon full of hot air ??!!

#129 Brad in Van on 05.12.12 at 1:26 pm

Why Vancouver cannot compare to Seattle

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihGCj5mfCk8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZqsVk4XYKk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftt9wCYH4o0

The spirit of Americans cannot be kept down. This too will show through in the progression of their society. They’re tough as nails and have senses of humor.

#130 Canadian Watchdog on 05.12.12 at 1:32 pm

#120 jess

The 3 month CDOR and 5yr bond spread are widely used to price 5yr interest rates swaps. Example. Bank A may borrow a fixed 5yr bond at 1.50%, then swap rates with Bank B for a variable at 1%. The mechanics on how these swaps are priced goes beyond me, but they are all priced on base rates.

#131 MD on 05.12.12 at 1:36 pm

How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????

#132 Mike on 05.12.12 at 1:37 pm

Dude, dude, dude:

Willfully and with forethought, screwing someone on a $1.4 million dollar deal strikes me as different than running into the drugstore for a box of condoms without plugging the parking meter.

As far as looking in the mirror is concerned, I’m cool with what I see. Et tu, Brutus dude?

Professional ethics, dude, and as you are a realtor I’m not surprised that the concept is lost on you.

#133 truth hammer on 05.12.12 at 2:07 pm

The sleazy games realtards play on the buying public are legion……really demonic…..biblical stuff. One most common is the ‘reno’ gag. It goes like this. A sleazeball realtard (and aren’t they all) who absolutley zero experiance or knowledge of construction practises, quantity survey, labour costs or skills availabity…..let alone any clue about appraisal practices, licenses, legal interprations regarding easements, set backs or rights of way….becomes the ‘instant expert’ in all matters for the purpose of the sales pitch.

Lets keep one thing firmly in mind…the real estate course is advertised as a two week course with aforeknowledge of a financial calculator as an option but not a required prerequisite. 99.999999% of realtards have zero training in evaluation aside from the real estate boards secret publications on recent sales ‘in the general area’…….comparing your house to your neighbours three blocks over is like comparing my bowel movements with yours…..not a very precise assumation. Realtards are not qualified to appraise a half eaten Big Mac let alone a house.

Realtards come in a variety of educational backgrounds…..but the majority haven’t finished high school and have no knowledge whatsoever of the macro economic trends they so vaguely refer to as gospel. A vast majority have been housewives who then want to enter the workforce…….why do they pick realtarding……..because they are not fit for any other type of employment…..and the same goe’s for the men…….uneducated babboons for the most part. Look….you can put a monkey in a suit and your not going to get a satisfactory outcome at the bank….what are you thinking? I’ll tell you what I think……I think that most people allow themselves to get so emotionally taken in by the industry pimps advertising that they think the whore is an OK guy or girl.

A majority of realtards do not own their own homes and as such have no skin in the game they are trying to get you to commit your life savings to.

A majority of realtards will take a young couple through an old crack shack and slither through the ancient rooms with comments like “oh thats just a coat of paint, a couple of hundred bucks, nothing”. They refer to decrepit bathroom renos as “just a few thousand dollars, easy to do”……..they’ll talk about the moss on the roof as if it’s Saturday afternoon with a new pressure washer.

Anyone who has ever done a reno knows that everything a realtard says is total codswallop. Buying a home on the advice of a realtard is akin to asking your two year old to do your investing for you.

#134 Daisy Mae on 05.12.12 at 2:14 pm

You are an amazing writer. And this blog is so powerful. I’ve forwarded it to others and I hope they pay attention….

What would we do without you keeping us enlightened? LOL

#135 Burnt Norton on 05.12.12 at 2:16 pm

#123 The dude on 05.12.12 at 12:26 pm

LOL. A realtor dishing out moral reductionism lessons.

It’s like a fox running an emergency preparedness seminar at the henhouse.

#136 John on 05.12.12 at 2:24 pm

Tough Times wrote:

“This crash is going to be minimum 35% to 50%. Really our whole economy is based on a house of cards with FREE MONEY FROM THE TAXPAYER “CHMC” propelling this bubble.”

————

You put the dots together in a solid way…so why are you still referring to real estate? Will it be relevant once it’s “done”?

If your wallet gets stolen you don’t talk about what you’re going to do with the money…no matter what you ( or the market ) think that money is worth. And if 50% of people got their wallets stolen…would that have some kind of impact?

So what’s the deal?

#137 Canadian Watchdog on 05.12.12 at 2:27 pm

#113 Market Bull

Thiz is blog not a spelling bea. Nobosody cares.

#138 Westernman on 05.12.12 at 2:38 pm

DELETED

#139 Realtors and mortgage brokers =baghdad bob on 05.12.12 at 2:38 pm

Realtors and mortgage brokers are in an all out panic and spreading lies on garth blog with hopes to con the last greaterfools into economic ruin. Karma will punishish these evil people.

#140 Browns Bottom on 05.12.12 at 2:49 pm

Man sells 6 properties in Toronto on Kijiji

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/man-sells-6-properties-kijiji-215000603.html

There are so many juicy snippets in this article its hard to know where to start….

#141 John G. Young on 05.12.12 at 3:15 pm

#123 The dude on 05.12.12 at 12:26 pm

“Mike I suggest you buy a mirror and take a good look at yourself and ask 1 basic question have I ever cut a corner in my life time?”

Oh, right, I remember that argument — from when I used to play in a sandbox.

What Mike is doing is called various things, including “taking responsibility”, “being an adult” and “living by a set of values”.

You might want to try it sometime, “dude”.

#142 TurnerNation on 05.12.12 at 3:50 pm

#54Canadian Watchdog on 05.11.12 at 11:15 pm

10 units recently hit MLS, at 508 WELLINGTON ST, Toronto. Barely a hole-in-the-ground at this juncture.

#143 jess on 05.12.12 at 3:59 pm

By 2017 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, PWC, E&Y, KPMG to restructure
The rules require them to “localise” their operations so that they are led by Chinese citizens and dominated by accountants holding China’s accountancy qualifications.

The foreign joint venture arrangements currently used by the Big Four were signed 20 years ago and allowed foreign-qualified accountants to dominate their China practices

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-05-10/news/31655578_1_big-four-accounting-firms-local-partners

http://retheauditors.com/2012/05/10/why-is-the-sec-pursuing-deloitte-shanghai-looks-like-its-personal/

Chinese banks to expand in the US. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd
buys 80% of the U.S. subsidiary of Bank of East Asia, a Hong Kong company with 13 branches in New York and California. The Fed also approved two Beijing-based banks, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd., to build branches in New York City and Chicago, respectively.

#144 };-) aka DA on 05.12.12 at 4:07 pm

DELETED

#145 TurnerNation on 05.12.12 at 4:18 pm

#54Canadian Watchdog on 05.11.12 at 11:15 pm

Craigslist is so Web 1.0 :)

Kijji is Web 2.0 – surely to be supplanted by something else, someday.

Over 400 matches for GTA real estate assignment:

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-assignment-real-estate-W0QQCatIdZ34QQKeywordZassignmentQQisSearchFormZtrue

#146 Anon on 05.12.12 at 4:25 pm

#132 MD on 05.12.12 at 1:36 pm
How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????

I sincerely hope none, because the dubious discipline you refer to is not a science, never was, never will be, no matter what the “dogma du jour” trumpets.

#147 John G. Young on 05.12.12 at 4:55 pm

DELETED

#148 John G. Young on 05.12.12 at 4:59 pm

#145 };-) aka DA on 05.12.12 at 4:07 pm

DELETED

You’re still a little early — like 81 days.

Don’t worry, I’m keeping track.

#149 John G. Young on 05.12.12 at 5:05 pm

#148 John G. Young on 05.12.12 at 4:55 pm

DELETED

Useful feedback, thanks.
I will take some deep breaths before posting.

#150 Canadian Watchdog on 05.12.12 at 5:08 pm

#143 TurnerNation

Something big is going on because Craigslist, Kijiji, and Red Pin condo listings are exploding with Platinum and VIP condos listings.

This guy has half a dozen multiple listings on Kijiji. http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-VIP-ACCESS-VIP-Classifieds-W0QQKeywordZVIPQ20ACCESSQ20Qe9Q87Q91Qe7Q89Q8cVIPQQisSearchFormZtrue

Agents and brokers are popping up everywhere with 20-30 listings at a time. It’s crazy.

#151 george on 05.12.12 at 5:09 pm

# 132 MD posted “How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????”

In 2004, Alan Greenspan, then the chairman, said the rise in home values was “not enough in our judgment to raise major concerns.” In 2005, Mr. Bernanke — then a Bush administration official — said a housing bubble was “a pretty unlikely possibility.” As late as May 2007, he said that Fed officials “do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/business/economy/06leonhardt.html

#152 Smoking Man on 05.12.12 at 5:44 pm

#43 Don’t read his post on 05.11.12 at 10:44 pm
Hey SMOKING MAN. There is no poker at woodbine.

You missed it man. I was talking about Finally.

#4 Finally on 05.11.12 at 8:30 pm
I finally sold my DT Vancouver Loft. Was listed 3 times over the past 15 months by 3 different agents. With 5 price drops, 10 open houses, countless waste my time showings and finally that 1 single offer. I was so scared they would walk I gave into every single one of there demands. Sold 8% below assessment, but I would have gone 20% below if it came down to it. Happy to be renting a place that’s double the size, but at the same price as my old mortgage, maintenance and taxes.

Now I’m sitting on over 500K in cash waiting for the market to crash. I’ll buy a house when it’s down 30%, but I’ll start looking when it’s down 25%. Cash is King!
……………………………………

Of course no poker at woodbine. But this guy has pocket aces . My point was till you cash out an walk away. Anything is a possibly.

#153 Smoking Man on 05.12.12 at 5:48 pm

#143 TurnerNation on 05.12.12 at 3:50 pm
#54Canadian Watchdog on 05.11.12 at 11:15 pm

10 units recently hit MLS, at 508 WELLINGTON ST, Toronto. Barely a hole-in-the-ground at this juncture.

amazing what CBC, CTV, CITY, Global can do in a few short days.
…………………………………………………

Point is if you got grass to Cut in 416 you’re laughing and will be for a long time.

If you got a cement cell who’s true cost to build, with land under your floor it’s maybe 60 K and I’m pushing it. And if you paid 300 or 400. or more

Your f-ed

#154 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.12.12 at 6:32 pm

Must be Canadian buyers. Folks, Canadian are the biggest whiners in the world. Face the facts, Canadians don’t deserve home ownership. It’s for winners and those who have cash in the bank not for people who rely on mortgages. Times have changed folks. You blinked and you missed. Better get a second job as rents are poised to go sky high. Lovin It

#155 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.12.12 at 6:34 pm

Since when did this become the Seattle blog? This is about Canadian Real Estate not third rate Fail Estate
*****************************************
Brad in Van on 05.12.12 at 1:26 pm
Why Vancouver cannot compare to Seattle

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihGCj5mfCk8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZqsVk4XYKk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftt9wCYH4o0

The spirit of Americans cannot be kept down. This too will show through in the progression of their society. They’re tough as nails and have senses of humor.

#156 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.12.12 at 6:37 pm

Nobody is house hornier than a renter -NOBODY. The homeowner already has peace of mind, the owner has transcended the world of worries and KNOW HIS FAMILY is TAKE CARE OF in the future. Beware of renters, these are the greediest sould to walk the face of the earth – all they want to do is BUY. No CLASS

#157 Onemorething on 05.12.12 at 6:45 pm

#4 Finally

Way To Go – you’re one in 1000 on this blog, one in 100,000 in Canada, all others just visiting! 30%, try 50% by 2014!

Put that 1/2 Mill to work like Garthster says!

Now go rent something awesome – stay with 1 year term as rents are coming down too!

#158 Lostinthewilderness on 05.12.12 at 7:05 pm

Interesting take on the new economy after growth cycle ends, from Jeff Rubin interview.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/12/jeff-rubin-end-of-growth_n_1511699.html?ref=canada&ref=canada

#159 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.12.12 at 7:14 pm


Wot a delightful day! Nothing to do, nothing happening, the world has come to a screeching halt. Everybody off!
*
Mothers Selling Children Guess the banxters got what they wanted; WW3 here and now Weapons of choice? Debt – deficits – austerity; Bank Runs “Every single holder of the “Big Silver Short” has gone belly up! It started with Drexel Burnham in the 1980?s then got passed to AIG then Bear Sterns and it now presides at JP Morgan.”; 11:10 clip Along with charts, etc. The US Fed caused the credit baloney; City Trader Supposed to play it safe. Whoops! EZone’s Depression Suicides continue; IMF and the Top Ten Reasons to dump it; Fleecing the Customers to pay execs. more and more;

BoA “Bank of America has assets totaling $2 trillion, all of it looted from the American people with nothing more than paper and ink. So this $11.8 billion represents just over 1/2 of one percent of Bank of America’s loot. To put it simply Bank of America has taken $2 from you and after being caught in major frauds, hands you back a penny.” wrh.com; Working (Poor) Class; Farming Economics “What the Germans failed to do with Tanks – they are now doing with Banks – and by God we had better stop them.” The Fourth Reich? Greece “The problem is that the minority block of politicians who are working for the IMF are simply refusing to go along with any coalition that refuses to sell the Greek people back into slavery to the bankers. In the US, this would be a filibuster approach. But if this pro-bailout/austerity faction succeeds in reversing the Greek peoples’ mandate, they will probably trigger a revolution. The end result will be the same; Greece will drop out of the EU, the Euro will crash and $95 trillion on credit default swaps sold by Wall Street will come due.” wrh.com and Greece must obey! “Welcome to the NWO peasants!” (That’s us);
*
China – Philippines – US war That will keep the Chinese away from Iran long enough; Gollygosh! It’s true! Osama bindeadforoveradecadenow Laden has officially entered the US presidential race; Selenium Cancer fighter? Sonic Weapons Using the same weapons in Chicago at the NATO summit and the Olympics; Plunge Not the economy, a train into the North Thompson river; 2:01 clip FEMA Camps, guards, internment camps etc.; Holland brings in ‘net neutrality; Myths and Facts re: GW; Delegating Commitments “This could well be a repeat of the 1976 GOP convention where a revolt among Gerald Ford’s delegates gave the nomination to Ronald Reagan!” wrh.com; 5:34 clip The GoM is still sick.

#160 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 7:18 pm

Attention all offshore buyers with $1.6M-$1.7M — you’ve now got 2 more choices for ridiculously overpriced Willowdale homes:

$1.7M, no pictures, “100 ft frontage” (with only 70 ft deep lot), “Primarily Land Value” (hmmm – $1.7M and I don’t even get a house?):
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11918062&PidKey=1434011407

$1.6M, this one actually has pictures – which show this to be a boring burbs house, “No Sidewalk”, “Lots Of Pot Lights”, “Walk To Finch Subway Station And Bus Terminal” (because after paying $1.6M, you’ll need to sell your car and take the bus?):
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11918976&PidKey=839168375

No offense to the sellers, but WHAT THE F*CK IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE if they buy these places for these prices???

The country will be a better place when these insane real estate games are over.

#161 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 7:22 pm

HAHAHA – CMHC’s stated probability of insolvency: “Less than 1 in 200”!!!

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/05/highlights-from-cmhcs-2011-annual-report.html

Where do I sign up for this bet? I’d put everything I own on the “insolvent” bet for 200-to-1 odds!

#162 TurnerNation on 05.12.12 at 7:44 pm

Eric “Splott” is the Brad Lamb of silver paper marketing.

See y’all at $25-26.

It makes a ‘splott’ sound, hitting bottom (a bit of onomatopoeia).

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1

#163 Bobby on 05.12.12 at 8:11 pm

Coastal,
You have raised a number of interesting points. Let’s remember it is the role of a seller’s agent to create hype and nothing creates it more than the illusion of great demand and limited supply. Bear Mountain Resort was infamous for that. They would state a building was almost sold out by 70%, stressing the importance of getting in now. Yet awhile later you would see lots of units for sale at a discount.
The same thing happened at Mt Washington with the sale of Bear Lodge. The realtor told me he had 350 people lined up to buy so I had to make a quick decision without having the opportunity to due the requisite due diligence. I walked. Again, after 7 years later, there are still units left unsold.
The moral, the last person you want to believe is the selling realtor. Ask a lot of questions and don’t settle for I don’t know answers. There is nothing a realtor hates more than an informed buyer.

#164 Raj on 05.12.12 at 8:17 pm

“Interesting take on the new economy after growth cycle ends, from Jeff Rubin interview.”

And people still believe what this guy has to say.I will start believing him when oil reaches $200 which was his prediction for 2008.I don’t necessarily blame him because economics is not an exact science.
Not a single freaking economist knows what will happen next week ,let alone next year.

#165 Onemorething on 05.12.12 at 8:21 pm

#155 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.12.12 at 6:32 pm

Must be Canadian buyers. Folks, Canadian are the biggest whiners in the world. Face the facts, Canadians don’t deserve home ownership. It’s for winners and those who have cash in the bank not for people who rely on mortgages. Times have changed folks. You blinked and you missed. Better get a second job as rents are poised to go sky high. Lovin It

Agree – second part unfortunately will be questionable, overrotation to the downside has people stuck homes unable to sell to rent! Recourse baby! Not like the US of A.

And if you walk away or cant sell you double triple up with family friends to survive. Rental may be climb initially but not for long. Abrupt change will kill that opportunity.

#166 Bottoms_Up on 05.12.12 at 9:46 pm

#161 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 7:18 pm
—————————————————
they’re both obviously targeting Chinese what with those ’88’s’ in the prices…..

#167 TurnerNation on 05.12.12 at 10:13 pm

The petulant Toronto Life’s magazine’s June issue mentions our forum host: “Sure, the Garth Turners still warn of a bubble and moan about household debt.”

There’s more than one? — Garth

#168 Believer on 05.12.12 at 10:23 pm

The house prices will go up forever..and we will live happily ever after. Thank you!

#169 Good reading on 05.12.12 at 10:26 pm

“The Global Debt Trap” – by Claus Vogt and Roland Leuschel. Eye opener.

#170 Ben on 05.12.12 at 10:33 pm

Get out of your country and take a look around. You idiots pay top dollar for everything.

#171 coastal on 05.12.12 at 10:53 pm

“There is nothing a realtor hates more than an informed buyer.”

Bobby,
Very true. I’m an agent’s worst nightmare. :)

#172 Hoof-Hearted on 05.12.12 at 11:14 pm

Gotta ROTFLMAO re the basement suite thangy.

In Vancouver….many NIMBY’s got PO’D at the Monster House size aka Sq. Footage.

So…what does the City do?

They cut Sq. Footage in the basement..not the above grade portions, which is the REAL issue.

If you go on a tour of these , you will find approx. 1/2 basement is relegated to crawlspaces ie 3-4 ft in height.

One has to be a Michelangelo of Framing to frame the footings for this Polit- bureau Bullsh#t.

#173 BigAl (Original) on 05.12.12 at 11:21 pm

The old game of socializing losses onto taxpayers and privatizing profits to banks. Mortgages and the student loan scam. Indebted for life. Interest payment prison for life. Imagine all the commerce and business that would thrive if all of that interest payment money could be spent in the real economy.

#174 BigAl (Original) on 05.12.12 at 11:44 pm

#88Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.12.12 at 4:12 am
A genius is only appreciated once he exerts himself upon the world, before which time, if ever it comes, he is simply a helpless nothing.

Send your progeny to a private school if you want to but a brilliant puppy will exert itself upon the world irregardless if the time is right.

This is how a free nation would deal with the Marxist students in Quebec. 99% to zero in a day. A battle would ensue and quickly put an end the feuding parasites. The sooner we privatize out education system the better. Business men know how to prevent and deal with problems a million times better than lying bureaucrats.
==================================

And you think businessmen suddenly and miraculously become benevolent and kind when they become part of government or do business with government? They see the bottomless cash cow of tax money, and and all they would want to see is that tax to be lowered for tax payers??

Get real.

#175 Gordeaux on 05.12.12 at 11:47 pm

Maybe not another Lehman Bros… but possibly another Bear Stearns. It was a $3.2 billion loss on the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund that started that company down its road to ruin and kicked off the Global Financial Crisis. What they found out then was that the financial world was more interconnected than anyone previously imagined, and that a seemingly minor event could cause a total evaporation in confidence. Not saying this will happen again, but I’d also like to see the math of anyone who claims a contagion is impossible.

#176 I'm a multi-millionaire and I'm not buying in Canada..yet, but I took Garth's advice and bought in the US! on 05.12.12 at 11:50 pm

Please readers go to this URL and save this person from making a serious error. Let her know what you think. I did, but they refused to print my comment.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-buying/with-500000-budget-house-hunter-looks-beyond-vancouver/article2412101/

#177 Snowboid on 05.12.12 at 11:56 pm

#173 coastal on 05.12.12 at 10:53 pm …

I used to be an agents’ worst nightmare, but not as sharp anymore.

Some posters have recently mentioned ‘low-balling’ offers. That was the strategy we used when we bought our first investment property in 1997, but it requires a patient and willing agent.

Took a few tries on different properties, but eventually found a duplex.

However, the closest we will come to RE agents for a few years are the ‘retired’ ones that manage most of the rental properties in Kelowna.

And finally, warmth comes to the Okanagan!

#178 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.12.12 at 11:56 pm


Athens Sieg Heil; 12:34 clip TSA operating costs skyrocketing; Germany and Inflation History rhymes and repeats; Economic Implosion if Romney loses, but Soros is still backing Obomba; Slave Labor products sold here; Lost Wages is back! Brown Bag Lunch Food is way too expensive at the Olympics; Economic Weakness Where? Prophetic Jargon from a teenager? Justified Class warfare; How Wealth reduces compassion; 4:39 clip Economic collapses in history; Italy Violence and tax collectors; Headline and timing are pretty much spot on; Not Enough Money on this planet; Buy The Panic Self-explanatory; According to this chart, wouldn’t this be the right time to buy JPM?
*
STOP! We’re not machines; Teleportation Chinese physicists can do it; Scott Walker and Stephen Harper Both use divide and conquer schemes, and Keeping tabs on Harper Screwing us of our rights and freedoms; Bahrain – SArabia union Interesting because the US has been loading Bahrain up on weapons recently; It’s A Weird, Wacky World Vegetarian shark? Swamp Talk Variation of homeowners under water; McParents Keeping kids quiet with computer games (no critical thinking req’d) and junk food.

#179 Debtfree on 05.12.12 at 11:57 pm

@171 good read thanks for the lead . Read a few reviews reads like something that will help tide me over till you know who starts selling his new book . The last one is good reference but geez I’m not reading it again .

#180 Don on 05.13.12 at 12:00 am

#132 MD on 05.12.12 at 1:36 pm
How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????

I sincerely hope none, because the dubious discipline you refer to is not a science, never was, never will be, no matter what the “dogma du jour” trumpets
**************************************
Exactly, Economics has more to due with pyschology than the physical sciences, puts a business degree into perspective. And besides – you don’t need an degree to tell you that something isn’t right – just some commonsense. This over dependence on education qualifications more than experience is very concerning. Most people just regurgitate information but have no sense of implementation or practice – too much Ivory Tower thinking – it’s getting a little tiresome.

#181 Timbo on 05.13.12 at 12:05 am

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/5/12/drilling-down-into-oil-gas-prices.html

“I also think we’ll see more volatility, and the chances of seeing much lower prices are pretty good. When a bear sentiment grabs the market, it takes everybody down, both the best and the worst players. If you have the courage to face it, that’s very good news.”

oil to $150? Interesting read on how that might not happen……
—————————————

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-2-billion-dollar-loss-by-jpmorgan-is-just-a-preview-of-the-coming-collapse-of-the-derivatives-market

” Wall Street can’t be trusted to manage—or even correctly assess—its own risks.

This is in part because, time and again, Wall Street has demonstrated that it doesn’t even KNOW what risks it is taking.

In short, Wall Street bankers are just a bunch of kids playing with dynamite.

There are two reasons for this, neither of which boil down to “stupidity.”

The first reason is that the gambling instruments the banks now use are mind-bogglingly complicated. Warren Buffett once described derivatives as “weapons of mass destruction.” And those weapons have gotten a lot more complex in the past few years.

The second reason is that Wall Street’s incentive structure is fundamentally flawed: Bankers get all of the upside for winning bets, and someone else—the government or shareholders—covers the downside.

The second reason is particularly insidious. The worst thing that can happen to a trader who blows a huge bet and demolishes his firm—literally the worst thing—is that he will get fired. Then he will immediately go get a job at a hedge fund and make more than he was making before he blew up the firm.”

Well isn’t this an interesting turn of events, 2 billion gambled away and no one will be held responsible…..

#182 The uneducated realtor on 05.13.12 at 12:20 am

#134 truth hammer

Yes truth hammer we realtors are uneducated drop outs with only two weeks training. Yes two weeks to become a professional just like an accountant or lawyer . How the stupid masses would believe anything we tell them goes against logic a day reason. Yes we laugh for hours at the office. I can laugh at all you blog dogsand greaterfools but we realtors spend lots of money in the media to brainwash you. LoL two weeks training and we become professionals.

#183 AACI Home Dog on 05.13.12 at 2:20 am

Hey…Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables

Thanks…!!!

#184 Mr Buyer on 05.13.12 at 6:41 am

#132 MD on 05.12.12 at 1:36 pm
How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????
……………………………………………………………………….
I actually tried to plow through an economics course from the teaching company (some of their science, biology and medical courses are top drawer, no tests or certificates, just knowledge) but it almost put me into a deep deep sleep instantly. They did have a few pretty graphs but I really could hardly stay awake. I will take up drinking coffee again and take another run at it (the teacher is alright). Kind of belabors points a littlebut who doesn’t.

#185 richard on 05.13.12 at 7:47 am

John G Young:

Glad somebody is keeping track! LOL. Before you know it, like the last 50 bannings, he’ll be back. At least on the local forum where he lives, he got banned, and stopped coming back; he found this place!

He’ll be restrained for a few weeks, then the bizarre bravado will start to emerge. He’ll try to assume Garth’s online persona, talking as master of the house until….actually come to think of it, all the hot wife talk was probably Garth’s fault! Gotta live large like the online Garth Turner…shame on you Garth for influencing the mentally impaired!

I heard that. — Garth

#186 FI Guy on 05.13.12 at 8:33 am

#162 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 7:22 pm

Agreed -1 in 200 is laughable.

Readers should consider this: CMHC’s capital is about 2% of the total notional value of the mortgages it is insuring.

Genworth is actually worse. About 1% of mortgages it is insuring.

Banks are required by OSFI to hold five times more capital – 5% – and, prudently, hold much more.

1 in 200 chance? Where has the common sense gone? With current debt levels the way they are all it would take would be one more recession, regardless of where house prices are heading. Recessions occur every 5-10 years.

#187 John on 05.13.12 at 8:56 am

I think there was as much as a 5 year period where I didn’t look at The Toronto Star. Maybe after 2005 when Rosie headlined a hate piece on Canada winning Miss Universe.

But check out today’s mobile version of The Star. “Business” section. Top 2 stories. They are at the door of ABC.

A. HOUSING, First fraud journalism planting the idea that SFH’s are not going to be involved in the crash…with the cause of the crash screaming loudly in the article below.

B. DERIVATIVES, Second an article about Jaime Dimon and the now (?) blatantly obvious off-a-cliff casino game he’s representing. The mouldy Star uses a term from a popular 1993 Harrison Ford flick with “A Clear and Present Danger to the World Economy”. Ouuch. How lame.

C. THE ECONOMY, Third, an article about…wait. There is no third. There is no ABC. A. Housing, B. Derivatives, C. Economy. Yeah..no ABC.

What the hell more can be said?

People will actually BUY a house at 70% more than it’s value ( or more now…as the derivatives fraud becomes impossible to continue). They will believe it’s a “space” or “supply and demand” issue.

What about the guy who “got out” and sold his derivatives-based “equity” to a deluded person who has also bought the derivatives built “value”.

So, let me get this straight. Where are you going to put Jaime Dimon’s “cash”? Slam down 3 scotches and wander over to the poker tables. With the one arm bandit game, all you had to do is sit numbly in your “home”. Now you’re FLUSH man. Be smart. Find games in the casino that work on RETURN and give you something for “retirement”.

The casino is rigged. Casinos are not there for the people outside the government-money junkie-media paradigm.

Maybe ABC judgment can be dumped into the Doomer Convenience Bin?

Why not? The DCB doesn’t even need precious metals now. It’s completely abitrary.

#188 rosie on 05.13.12 at 8:56 am

Beware Greeks not bearing responsibility. The events of the past little while are reminding me of the spring of 08. ie. Bear Stern. Anyone else with deja vu.

#189 John on 05.13.12 at 9:05 am

MD wrote:

“How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????”
———–

Almost nobody. If you want, connect up with The Bank of Canada, that organization is loaded with qualified people. A ton with economics degrees. Pass on anything below a masters. And if you really want to be on the inside of what’s actually happening, just stick to the guys who have Phds and teach in universities.

You’re wasting your time here.

Yes, the pointy-head guys at the BoC have done a great job. Inflation running at twice wage gains, an uncompetitive exchange rate and monetary policy responsible for a giant credit bubble. Well done, geniuses! — Garth

#190 TurnerNation on 05.13.12 at 9:50 am

Also from Toronto Life’s June copy – flippers!

Immigrant couple, since 2001, “flipped” some houses. Last one was bought for at least $879k, reno’d for $150, added more reno work as it wasn’t selling, finally sold for 1.05m.
Sounds like a loss to me….

They carried the morgtage for one year. They were then ‘eyeing another flip’.

Sounds to me like their luck ran out. I predict divorceville down the road.

A Toronto house selling for $879,000 actually costs $910,000 with double land transfer tax and a few legals. Add $105,000 for renos, and you get $1.15 million. Sell for $1.05 million less commission, and net $997,500. Loss = $152,500. That’s not flipping. It’s charity work. — Garth

#191 Tony on 05.13.12 at 10:40 am

Edmonton didn’t have a soft landing. Many condominiums and apartments are still down more than fifty percent from the July 2007 peak.

#192 Tony on 05.13.12 at 10:45 am

Re: #192 John on 05.13.12 at 9:05 am

Studying and knowing economics are two different things. Sort of like studying poker then trying to make a living at it playing it professionally. The two are worlds apart.

#193 Timbo on 05.13.12 at 10:50 am

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Support-grows-for-EU-Fiscal-Treaty-as-Declan-Ganley-joins-the-No-camp-151292325.html

“He told RTE: “It would be irrational to vote ‘Yes’ to bank debt that we have no moral responsibility for. There be no economic recovery without such a deal on bank debt which is not in this Treaty.”

It’s a debt that can’t be paid? Say it is not so…..

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/05/12/greece-on-the-brink-of-financial-abyss-as-syriza-party-weighs-default.html

“Nowhere is the unemployment rate worse than in the westernmost Athens neighborhood of Perama. In this rustbelt of dying shipyards, joblessness runs as high as 50 percent.”

A political shift is in the air with debt burden leading the way….
The domino’s are lining up nicely. All we need now is for Greece to put out it’s pinky finger and tickle the closest one. Get your popcorn and watch for the show to begin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JCm5FY-dEY&feature=related

Greek default, ironically, will be welcome, quite likely resulting in a market celebration. — Garth

#194 Jacob Zunet on 05.13.12 at 11:09 am

It is true that practices of some realtors are disgraceful, but I am not that pessimistic about the situation on the market. Just recently I have read the article called Why Canada Shouldn’t be Afraid of Subprime Crisis. Its author argues about stability of Canada´s real estate market despite its future slowdown. My opinion is the same. Quieter market will simply eliminate greedy sellers, but I do not believe in “angry mob” claims.

The author is a realtor who trots out time-worn, and discredited, arguments. There is a good case for saying sub-prime lending practices permeate any society with 5%-down, 0%-down, cash-back mortgages and blanket government insurance of all high-risk loans, as well as teaser interest rates destined to rise. Suggest you read more widely. — Garth

#195 Tony on 05.13.12 at 11:13 am

Re: #162 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.12 at 7:22 pm

I think CMHC meant to say the odds are 1 to 200 not 1 in 200. If you gave me 50/50 odds i’d bet the farm on it. I’d put the under and over at the CMHC being gone by this September.

#196 Tony on 05.13.12 at 11:18 am

Re: #158 Onemorething on 05.12.12 at 6:45 pm

I’m looking at 70 percent not 50 but looking at the year 2016.

#197 I'm stupid on 05.13.12 at 11:42 am

Yes, the pointy-head guys at the BoC have done a great job. Inflation running at twice wage gains, an uncompetitive exchange rate and monetary policy responsible for a giant credit bubble. Well done, geniuses! — Garth

I’m no genius, but isn’t the giant credit bubble the reason inflation is running at twice the wage gains? how can employees negotiate a higher wages when 7 out of ten have no pensions and a majority have no savings plus they have record amount of debt. It’s the perfect storm of idiocy, it leaves the masses with zero mobility and no negotiating power. What will a guy do if 100% of his income is pre spent on debt service and basic living expense? He can’t quit his job because he’s not getting a raise because that will lead to financial ruin. Unless average Canadian reduce there debt load inflation/wage ratio will not change.

What do I know I’m stupid.

#198 Finanzkrise on 05.13.12 at 12:28 pm

Despite looming public sector job cuts (and most likely wage freezes for everyone else), the real estate market in the Nation’s Capital keeps humming along.

At a party recently, I listened to a couple who put 5% down and paid almost 10% over asking for an unrenovated older bungalow which has likely doubled in value in not too many years. In doing so, they had to outbid a bully offer, waive all conditions including inspection, and they conducted all of 20 minutes of due dilligence. The house was listed for mere hours, and the bully offers short circuited a scheduled open house.

Neighbourhood seems very nice, but with this kind of madness, I’m out.

#199 Industrial Guy on 05.13.12 at 1:23 pm

# 132 … MD said: “How many people writing on this blog have actually studied Economics ????”
I studied Micro and Macro Economics as a college student (CEGEP) and university undergraduate. Do I win a prize?

(147) Anon. Claims that Economics is a “dubious discipline”. Well, sir / madame The Nobel Committee would disagree. They award a prize every year in the disciple. Maybe you’re confused by the words of Thomas Carlyle. He refereed to Economics as the “dismal science ” in the 19th century. You may want to consider updating your reading list.

(165) Raj says: “Economics is not an exact science. Not a single freaking economist knows what will happen next week, let alone next year.” Please, show me a science which is exact … Theories are questioned and revised everyday … Our reliance on statistical probability means odd things can occur. You can die from a heart attacked a day after your Doctor says you’re in perfect health. In the 80’s, Dr. James Fix a physician credited with popularizing the sport of running and jogging was found dead by the roadside after suffering a massive heart attack. He was only 52 years of age.

#200 Aussie Roy on 05.13.12 at 1:35 pm

John on 05.13.12 at 9:05 am

MD wrote:

“How many people writing on this blog have actually studied economics ????”
———–

Almost nobody. If you want, connect up with The Bank of Canada, that organization is loaded with qualified people. A ton with economics degrees. Pass on anything below a masters. And if you really want to be on the inside of what’s actually happening, just stick to the guys who have Phds and teach in universities.

You’re wasting your time here.

Yes, the pointy-head guys at the BoC have done a great job. Inflation running at twice wage gains, an uncompetitive exchange rate and monetary policy responsible for a giant credit bubble. Well done, geniuses! — Garth
……………………………………………………………………….

Wow John are these the same guys that all missed the crisis in the US?, still can’t see how their actions, or lack there of has blown up a huge DEBT bubble.

How about another idea?, lets look at who called this crisis before it happened and attempted to warn us, would it not be wise to listen to them?.

You can stick with the witch doctors and their beliefs, for me I’d like to follow and learn from those who clearly saw this global DEBT mess on it’s way.

Here is a good place to start, yeah he’s got a degree or two but more important warned all those who would listen before the GFC it was coming.

How many Central Bankers do you know that saw the GFC coming, I know the answer, none.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

#201 Aussie Roy on 05.13.12 at 1:40 pm

Aussie Headlines

Adelaide Australia

The Treasurer says there is capacity to absorb some the latest hit to revenue as he frames the South Australian budget.

But Jack Snelling says the state’s triple-A credit rating is all but gone.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-10/budget-sa-snelling/4002126?section=sa

Parents on the hook for daughters housing speculation, stops sale.

THE Australian dream (buying a house, of course what else is there?) has turned into a nightmare for a couple who became the victims of a family property dispute that has left them homeless.

Will and Daphne Wang thought they had bought the perfect house to raise their first child: a three-bedroom property in Westbourne Park.

But a week before the March settlement, the $481,000 deal fell through after the vendor’s parents blocked the sale because the auction price did not meet their expectations.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/shut-out-of-their-aussie-dream/story-fn6bqvxz-1226353908876

#202 deja view? on 05.13.12 at 1:54 pm

After the crash.
Work wanted: Enthusiastic swinal bi-ped sporting a flat disc with raised rind .. available to harvest truffles!

#203 99% on 05.13.12 at 2:12 pm

#202 greed – thanks for posting that article. You are absolutely right, I too cringed while reading this article. It was suggested that the “talent” should be allowed to reside in both countries without the hassle of borders. How would the issues of residence “benefits” be addressed? Would they be entitled to health care, pensions, or pay taxes in only one country? Isn’t it bad enough that Mr. Zhou’s son obtained residency in Canada, received his education in BC, then got his degree at UBC, only to work back in China? How many such people are taking up valuable space at our Universities? My kids won’t be able to attend these Universities because most spots are taken by these new immigrants. They don’t have to worry about paying for tuition (their tuition is low because they claim resident status), and many pay tutors to write their papers. Now they want to take their education back home and continue exploiting Canada? I think I’m going to be sick. Unbelievable is right.

#204 Sebee on 05.13.12 at 2:14 pm

China house values down 13% first four months. What kind of an impact – if any – will this have on our resource sector, dollar, jobs?

#205 betamax on 05.13.12 at 2:17 pm

#192 John: “Pass on anything below a masters. And if you really want to be on the inside of what’s actually happening, just stick to the guys who have Phds and teach in universities.”

LOL. When I was at university, undergrad students who didn’t have a high enough GPA to get into Commerce went into Economics as a fallback.

Second, a grad degree guarantees only a modicum of intelligence, and it’s often the drudges who can’t get a job with a Masters that go on to do a PhD. Not always, but regrettably often.

Aside from all that, Econ profs are notorious for vehemently disagreeing with each other, so good luck getting correct advice from any one of them.

#206 Victoria on 05.13.12 at 2:28 pm

#202,

Well maybe they should be taxed less and they can then come and LOVE Canada and the people born and bred here could make up the tax difference. Also that will free up lots of money for the immigrants to buy lots and lots of houses.

Lived in Paris and worked at the OECD. One of the perks to attract people was that the OECD had a tax free status. That is right – we didn’t pay income tax. Nothing. We had great health care, tax free cars etc. Why not do that for the new immigrants??? Give them huge tax breaks and the middle class can make up the difference.

I am of course kidding.

#207 betamax on 05.13.12 at 2:37 pm

#204 Industrial Guy: “Please, show me a science which is exact … Theories are questioned and revised everyday”

The psychological aspect of econ necessarily renders it an inexact science, despite your semantic quibbling.

Before James Fixx took up running, he smoked 2 packs a day for most of his adult life, and he had a congenitally enlarged heart. Running likely extended his life, despite his relatively early demise.

#208 Raj on 05.13.12 at 2:41 pm

Industrial Guy ,

There are many things in this world which can be measured/predicted to the precision of nano.
If a vehicle is traveling at 30 km/hour,it will have covered a distance of 60km ,exactly in 2 hours(maybe off by a few minutes but definately not by hours).
If a bean in a house is designed to carry 100 KN load ,it will not fail before 100 kN and will not withstand a load of 200 KN (again could be off by a few %).You do not have same luxury in Economics.

#209 John G. Young on 05.13.12 at 2:57 pm

#188 richard on 05.13.12 at 7:47 am

“He’ll be restrained for a few weeks, then the bizarre bravado will start to emerge.”

I supect that you may be saying that the bravado is “bizarre” because you sense that it is disconnected from reality; in my mind this can also be called grandiose thinking — a hallmark of narcissism.

“He’ll try to assume Garth’s online persona, talking as master of the house…”

Yes, I’ve noticed that too; he “believes he is ‘special’ and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people [eg. Mr. Turner]”, which is one of the DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for narcissistic personality disorder.
As another example of this, I’ve noticed that DA refers to other commenters as “pups and poodles” or “THE [my emphasis] blog dawgs”, as if he is not one of us.

Of course this is just armchair supposition, and I am not — nor do I have any desire to be — DA’s physician. However, in view of DA’s past attacks on me and others on this blog, I think I have a right to express my opinion; perhaps in time it might prove to be of some benefit to both DA and all of us blog dogs.

DA could use his time away from this blog to get some professional help and gain some insight; unfortunately, because people with personality disorders are so averse to self-examination, I hold out little hope that that will happen.

Cheers,

John

#210 Junius on 05.13.12 at 3:14 pm

192 John,

In case you missed it there is a huge battle going on in the economics profession right now between the neoclassical school and those who argue that the current paradigm is flawed. Leading the critique are people like Australian economist Steve Keen, American Michael Hudson and Yves Smith from the blog Naked Capitalism.

Studying Economics from the Neoclassical school might be the worst thing you can do right now. The problem is that the current prevailing economic model is flawed or at least incomplete.

#211 Daisy Mae on 05.13.12 at 3:26 pm

#127 TO Bubble Boy: “Realtors will instruct sellers not to provide any disclosures – which keeps the deniability option open if the buyer ever tries to sue etc.”

********************

A Residential Property Disclosure Statement is compulsory in BC….and buyers should know this. Certainly, the realtors do.

#212 Daisy Mae on 05.13.12 at 3:35 pm

128coastal on 05.12.12 at 1:12 pm
“Banks May Force Homeowners to Re-Qualify for Mortgages at End of Every Term.”

********************************

The banks having issued all these mortgages to ‘newbies’ already know who doesn’t qualify, so why would they want that fact re-affirmed? They can just wait until there’s a default…then go after CMHC.

#213 Tony on 05.13.12 at 3:40 pm

Re: #16 blase on 05.11.12 at 9:14 pm

It will probably take more than two years for the America market to retest the 1987 lows. People may pile back into stocks around 2018 or 2023 at the latest.

#214 Aussie Roy on 05.13.12 at 3:50 pm

I think the problem is what modern economics actually is and what is currently being taught as economic theory.

We need realistic economics.

The economic and financial crisis has been caused by unenlightened self-interest and fraudulent behaviour on an unprecedented scale. But this behaviour could not have grown so large were it not for the cover given to this behaviour by the dominant theory of economics, which is known as “Neoclassical Economics”.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/manifesto/

#215 Signpost in the bushes on 05.13.12 at 4:04 pm

“If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.”
George Bernard Shaw
Irish dramatist & socialist (1856 – 1950)

#216 Timbo on 05.13.12 at 4:35 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/spanish-anger-at-austerity-spills-into-the-streets-7743177.html

“The epicentre of the protest was Madrid, where at least 30,000 people flooded into the central Puerta del Sol plaza last night, vowing to stay put for three days.”

30k without bathroom facilities makes for a highly charged and unstable environment…..;)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/05/13/china-crashes-in-april-shows-signs-of-contraction/

“Beijing needs to do something fast. New lending is considered the third-most reliable indicator of economic activity in China, so it’s apparent the economy is in distress.”

And to think that the world was relying on their boom to carry the day….interesting times.

#217 Onthesidelines on 05.13.12 at 4:55 pm

@#202 Greed
Interesting G&M article. I’m always amazed at the reactions of Canadians ( most of whom have little or no overseas experience ) to this type of honest, frank comments from immigrants.

All I can say is welcome to the new world where nationality is indeed simply a convenience. It certainly has been for me as a Canadian who has spent most of his professional life overseas. Why? Because I couldn’t make a decent living here when I graduated from university. Did I have some warm and fuzzy feeling about the country where I spent decades making a working? Not at all. Just another country of convenience. Fair trade, you might call it. I provided a professional service which they needed and paid for at a satisfactory rate.

Now I am back in Canada working at 1/4 of my wages when I can get work, living mostly on our investment income. Do I have a warm and fuzzy feeling about Canada? Not really. It’s just another place, basically.

I am an immigrant from eastern Europe myself, and have moved all over the world since graduating from university. My wife is asian. For people like ourselves, and this is a growing group, who have lived large chunks of their lives in various parts of the world, nationality is about convenience and the opening of doors and nationalism as an affiliation is basically non-existent.

Having a European passport in addition to 2 others, we are now thinking of leaving Canada again and retiring in Europe where they also have socialized health care and inexpensive or free education.

Like Vancouver, Canada itself is only special to those who are coming from some repressive regime or the local hicks who don’t know any better.

Sorry to pop the bubble on your BPOE mentality, folks. Yeah, I know the retort: something about don’t let the door slam……grin

#218 J.I.M. on 05.13.12 at 5:51 pm

Read the attached to find out how to sell something you don’t actually own. Note that CRA is starting to tax a flip as a speculation.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1175064–things-to-watch-for-when-flipping-a-condo

#219 Junius on 05.13.12 at 5:54 pm

#219 Aussie Roy,

I agree. There remain 3 very fundamental problems in current mainstream thinking. Together they are at the core of our failed economic policies.

The first is the naive belief that all economic actions are made by “rational” actors and therefore maximize personal utility.

The second is that debt does not matter as one persons debt is another’s asset. This fails to take account of the financial instruments such as derivatives and Credit insurance swaps that can multiply debts way beyond any asset base.

The third incorrect principle is that economies move toward equilibrium and stability. Minsky was correct in that the system is more likely to become unstable.

#220 TurnerNation on 05.13.12 at 6:34 pm

Bigarida if you no sella da houses, how you maka your moneta? Gambling in the stock mercato or following da sober GarthPlana?

#221 Daisy Mae on 05.13.12 at 7:29 pm

#193 TurnerNation: “….reno’d for $150, added more reno work as it wasn’t selling, finally sold for 1.05m….”

********************

Just lower the price. Why waste yet more money on renovations? Dumb.

#222 Van grrl on 05.13.12 at 7:38 pm

#222 On the side lines:

I totally agree.
I’ll never forget when I travelled through Nepal and went to a small travel agency in Kathmandu to book a flight to Thailand. The young woman working there handed me back my passport but didn’t let go until I glanced up and looked at her. She then looked me straight in the eye and said “I envy you your life.. because you are free to go anywhere you want in this world, and I never will.”

To have the opportunity to go anywhere… to immerse yourself in other cultures for periods of time… but to NOT do it. Boggles my mind.

#223 Industrial Guy on 05.13.12 at 7:46 pm

Betamax … Oh my, where do I start …. “The psychological aspects of economics necessarily renders it an inexact science”? There are a great many human behaviors which can be accurately predicted. I earned a graduate degree in Psychology so, humour me. There’s an entire school of modern Psychology called the behaviorists. They’re primary focus is scientific inquiry into human behavior and not Freudian mumbo-jumbo. Since you’re claiming this psychological inaccuracy …. How do you explain the consistent herd behavior which is driving the present housing bubble? The low interest rate policy was designed to have the desired effect …. clearly, it did .. It’s hardly semantic quibbling. Many of the misleading comments coming out of economists are politically motivated …. You do know faculties of economics used to be called schools of “Political Economy”? The study of category management in retailing is every bit as precise as product engineering. Retailers know more about your buying behavior than you do. Just ask the folks at WalMart.

#224 Raj on 05.13.12 at 7:46 pm

Onthesidelines,

I am also an immigrant( and higly educated and have worked in different parts of world).The anger expressed in this case (including myself) is about how some people see Canada a place to make a quick millions but same time expect her to provide a good quality of life which is only possible in countries like China and India.
At 29 ,she already owns a house in Market( I guess over a million) and still complains not being able to make good money,you know what I mean?

#225 Aussie Roy on 05.13.12 at 10:03 pm

Junius on 05.13.12 at 5:54 pm

#219 Aussie Roy,

I agree. There remain 3 very fundamental problems in current mainstream thinking. Together they are at the core of our failed economic policies.

The first is the naive belief that all economic actions are made by “rational” actors and therefore maximize personal utility.

……………………………………………………………………………

Totally agree. Many of the current economic theories simply don’t make sense. It is a pity our economic thinking isn’t based more on Minsky and my personal hero, Beniot Mandlebrot.

I think if physics was built on the same unscientific foundations, we would still be living in caves.

All while the sun revolved around the earth.

#226 First Wave Boomer on 05.14.12 at 3:33 am

Do we need some more home buying stimulus in BC, or is this just vote grabbing by the Liberals? See
http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2012/homebuyers/2012_First_Time_Home_Buyers_Fact_Sheet.pdf

#227 betamax on 05.14.12 at 4:14 am

#228 Industrial Guy: “There are a great many human behaviors which can be accurately predicted….I earned a graduate degree in Psychology…”

I understand you better after the longer explanation, thanks. I misinterpreted your previous statement.

That said, there are many instances in which economic predictions, predicated on psychological motivations, turn out to be dead wrong. They’re great at explaining things after the fact, not so much on predicting.

#228 richard on 05.14.12 at 6:25 am

John G Young:

Yes, I’d concur with post 214. Hopefully his acting-out is limited to online behavior…though some of behavior (eg. the multiple posts replying to my original comment…which was mild, and easily replied to…I gave him an easy way out), shows a lack of awareness that is troubling!

You’re obviously familiar with psychology….axis 2 cluster B is nasty stuff…I wouldn’t wish it on anyone….although who knows, even if clinical, he may well be quite happy. A legend in his own mind. ;-)

PS. Hopefully he reads this. Then he’ll know all the hours were worthwhile. Two strangers discussing his disorder! Now he’s made it!

#229 Dupcheck on 05.14.12 at 10:28 am

I can’t agree more with this post. It is time the smile is wiped off these real estate snakes that make tons of money by being dishonest and pushing bidding games. It is time restrictions to the real estate business is put in place in order to limit the greed of these agents that are destroying the housing market for generations to come.
Shame on you and your un-deserved monies.

#230 John Prine on 05.14.12 at 11:23 am

Parksville BC.

361 active listings. Last 7 days, 5 sales. Spring market..

#231 John G. Young on 05.14.12 at 11:45 am

#233 richard on 05.14.12 at 6:25 am

“axis 2 cluster B is nasty stuff…I wouldn’t wish it on anyone….although who knows, even if clinical, he may well be quite happy…”

Yes. In general, it’s the people in contact with the Axis II people who suffer, not the Axis II people themselves.

Cheers,

John

#232 john on 05.14.12 at 2:27 pm

Garth, what are your thoughts on some crude stats I pulled on house prices and income in canada and the GTA.

Using MLS.ca and some stats I pulled from statcan and other sources turned up this:

Average GTA household income (2010): $99,991
Median GTA household income (2010): $77,985

# of homes for sale in GTA right now (GTA narrowed to burlington in west, newmarket in north, oshawa in east): 20,032
# of households in GTA: 2,020,374

Using mls.ca’s tools, the closest I can get to a median is the $475k. So let’s say that’s the case. Apply a 5% discount because it’s asking prices and it’s $450k. Seems very high at 4.5x avg income and 5.6x median income. But when you take into account that 16% of GTA families have an income of less than $25k (poverty line) and I would hope are not homeowners, the #s change dramatically. Using my crude stats, if you assume the median is $78k and you take out the lowest 20%, which is relatively consistent with the poverty line, the median would jump to about $95k. If you look at the data that was released for 2011, median house prices in toronto was just over $400k. So effectively, we are at 4x median income. Or looking at it differently, assuming a $375k mortgage, (10% down), your monthly income after-tax is $5800, and your monthly mortgage is $1,615 at 3.2%, or 28% of after-tax income. Even if you raised rates to 6%, you’re at 38% of after-tax income.

This all doesn’t seem too scary and really contradicts the 5.5x median income multiple that was thrown around earlier in the year. Unless there are people on the poverty line buying houses, it seems fundamentally flawed to look at a denominator which includes 20% of households who can barely afford to feed their kids.

I’m a believer that we’re overpriced, but I have never taken a critical look at the analysis that’s being thrown around. Garth or someone else, steer me back on course.

#233 Live it up on 05.14.12 at 3:16 pm

#237 John, you’re correct. After a 5 year term, principal would be $334,500. Assuming that 95K median family income doesn’t change, it’s only x 3.5 income. So a rate of 6% is bearable.

#234 “I finally sold my Downtown Vancouver Loft. Listed 3 times over 15 months; 3 different agents; 5 price drops; 10 open houses; finally that 1 single offer. Sold 8% below assessment; I would have gone 20% below if it came to it.” | Vancouver Rea on 05.15.12 at 9:01 am

[…] a house when it’s down 30%, but I’ll start looking when it’s down 25%. Cash is King!” – Finally at greater fool.ca 11 May 2012 8:30pm [Image for illustrative purposes only. Loft in picture not related to loft in story. Any similarity […]