Advice

It’s the weekend. Let’s dive into the bottomless mailbag of this pathetic blog, and feel superior to everyone else. Isn’t that what the Internet’s for?

My wife and I nearly drank the cool-aid back in 2008.  At the time we were renting a crapshack here in Vancouver, the likes of which would have had Mike Holmes rushing in with a bulldozer and a demolition permit.  After looking at dozens of garbage houses that were in even worse condition than the rental place we had I started to have a lot of “unpure thoughts” like “how exactly am I supposed to get ahead with this?” and “so I’ll be making these payments in to my 60’s?”

Eventually we gave up and stopped looking.  All the while I’d never quite been able to wrap my head around the economic reasons to double my monthly payments to live in a place that needed a total gut right off the bat.  Best decision I ever made.

Fast forward 4 years and we’re renting the perfect house, again for less than half what the payments would be.  Last winter a sewer backup took out the basement suite (landlord’s 22 year old daughter lives there occasionally) – nothing more satisfying than knowing “it’s not my problem”.  The followup ended up being a total replacement of the drainage around the house – $7k bill to the landlord.  I looked at my wife and said “Gee, imagine if we’d bought this place – we’d have lived here for less than a year, would have blown our savings on our down payment and had zero equity and now a $7000 bill – we’d be SCREWED!”  Oh so glad we made the right choice.

Nothing prepared me for a conversation I overheard on transit the other day though.  Heading to a concert – the bus was packed with SkyTrain delinquents from Van’s outer reaches, all of whom had obviously tied one on en route if the empty beer cans scattered around the bus stop were any indication.  So over the yelling and hollering these early 20-somethings start talking about their mortgages.

Mortgages? You’re like 22 years old!!

Conversations included gems like how many apartments they could buy instead of getting some stupid new car (‘cuz only the down payment matters you know) and how “awesome” one guy’s mortgage was because you could miss payments a couple of times a year with no hassle.  Well except for paying the interest on that missed payment for the remaining 28 years of the mortgage term, but I’m sure they understood that.  Yeah right.

If I ever needed proof that the banks and CMHC are out to lunch with their approval criteria that did it right there.  There is no way I’m going to “compete” with buyers like that – folks who have no idea the ramifications of the debt load they are taking on and therefore no real sense of ‘value’ in the purchase price of a property.  I mean when money is “free” who cares how much you pay? $300,000 is just a number, like $500,000 or $600,000.  Hey I think I had that much in a Monopoly game once!  When children are being given mortgages with amortizations that are longer than they’ve even been alive in dollar amounts that they can’t even visualize I know we’re screwed.

Here’s hoping that the few sane ones among us aren’t stuck with the bill…

When banks hand out money so cavalierly to those with neither experience nor savings, stupid happens. People who’ve never had serious debt misunderstand it. They rent money so they can have a house instead of renting the house directly at half the cost. For that the kids pay a huge price – freedom, mobility and choice. This will become apparent soon enough. Too bad  youth is wasted on the young. – Garth

Hi Garth. I stumbled upon your website a couple weeks ago and find it very interesting reading and your views are pretty much the same as mine. It’s amazing how many Canadians think we are somehow special and different to the USA and other countries in terms of the real estate market. What makes it more galling is that we just observed a real estate bubble collapse south of the border 4 years ago and we have learned nothing.

I am more interested in your take on Montreal..you focus a lot on Toronto and Vancouver and Calgary which are obviously more frothy than Montreal. But prices here have gone up a lot especially by chronically weak economic Montreal standards. Our house has more than doubled in price over the past 10 years and worth around 400K and my mortgage is paid off. About 70 percent of my net worth is the house and I am 44 years old with 3 kids. We really love our house and the location but I have been seriously thinking of selling it within the next year and renting.

But this would mean a lot of upheaval especially for the kids who spent their whole childhood in this house. I also look at the possibility of a PQ election victory within the next year which is not going to help the chronically weak economy here. What is your take on the Montreal market and on my situation?

Actually, it’s different in Montreal. It’s worse. Nowhere else in Canada do homeowners have to worry about a bunch of zealot, zombie separatist wingnuts who keep pulling the stake of democracy out of their chests. There’s a reason Montreal real estate is cheap. Nobody wants to move there – at least from the rest of the country. It is this piteous level of in-migration which helps make Quebec a dangereous place to own an expensive house. As for you, if you’ve made $200K tax-free on your home, and that’s 70% of your family’s wealth, then worry. If you’re kids are nailed to the floor, consider taking out some equity with a HELOC and diversifying. But do it carefully, and with the help of a conservative fee-based advisor, qui ne vend rien. — Garth

Hi Garth: As of recent, I have become one of your regular readers.  I am always interested in the market place, and try to keep up on the current real estate activities. I find myself worrying about my family members at times, in specific, my Sister and Brother In Law, who are one of those couples that you often describe in your blogs, people who have a huge mortgage, riding the low interest wave, people who stick their head in the sand and ignoring current market conditions and thinking they can ride that wave for a long time to come, and thinking that house prices will continue to go up forever.

My Sister is almost 45, her husband almost 60 and they have two young.  They purchased their house in early 2008 for $540,000.  I don’t ask them for specifics, but I think their mortgage is probably around $500,000.  My brother in law makes around $75,000 – $80,000 and my Sister is a stay at home mom.  The income doesn’t quite cut it and they find themselves in debt a little more every year, so every time they renew their mortgage, they keep adding on another $20,000 – $25,000 to cover the debt level they have accumulated over a couple of years.  So far they have been successfully riding the low interest wave, taking advantage of the variable rate.  So, they are paying 2.3% interest on their mortgage, and I think they have that rate for another year or so.  Knowing that my Brother-In-Law is of a “mature” age and them having 2 young kids, I felt I should recommend they read your blog and start thinking and preparing for a possible crash in the market and changing mortgage rates/bank lending regulations.  My worry is when they want to renew, they will have to deal with a much higher prime rate and a lower amortization period (i.e. 30 years versus 35 years), and they may become one of the victims of the real estate crash.

Here is what my Brother-In-Law responded when he read your blog:

“I think Garth Turner is just ranting and raving. I could probably find dozens of articles from other analysts who think differently.  The Bank of Canada will keep the prime at 1% because ncreasing interest rates would hurt the economy even more than it already is. Even if the prime goes up to 1.5% or even 2%, which is very unlikely, we’re still ahead of the game with our variable rate at .7% below prime (hehe).”

Now my question to you, Garth: What is your best advice to my Sister and Brother-in-Law based on their situation?

Obviously the guy is diddling with his family’s future, piling more debt onto a house that will likely fall in value. He’s failing to prepare for inevitably higher rates while not earning enough to pay his obligations even at these levels. If they have no other investments, no education funds for the kids and no retirement strategy, then they shouldn’t be homeowners. Hard to believe people can live six decades and know so little. Is your BIL on testosterone replacement therapy? That might explain his turning into a dick. — Garth

254 comments ↓

#1 first on 05.04.12 at 8:42 pm

first

#2 Johnny D on 05.04.12 at 8:45 pm

Yep, people are idiots

#3 mel in victoria on 05.04.12 at 8:48 pm

I think you all need to lighten up a bit!!

“It’s just too hot to wear clothes today,” Garth says as he stepped out of the shower, “Honey, what might the neighbors think if I were to mow the lawn like this?” To which she replied “Probably that I married you for your money.”

Have a great week end…

#4 Gord In Vancouver on 05.04.12 at 8:49 pm

More proof that Garth was right – the praying has started.

Welcoming a soft landing for home prices: TD CFO

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/05/04/Welcoming-a-soft-landing-for-home-prices-TD-CFO.aspx

#5 vic_guy on 05.04.12 at 8:49 pm

Own an Irish island for less than $1 million, or buy a crack shack in Vancouver :

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/04/11539745-own-an-irish-island-for-less-than-1-million?lite%3Focid=twitter

#6 ANONYMOUS on 05.04.12 at 8:51 pm

From what I can see, Europe is heading into a Japanese-style DEPRESSION.

Austerity is killing the consumers, and then there is the massive DEBT overhang added to it, so for the next 10 years they will have deflation ( like Japan did ).

Now what I am not sure of is how will this affect America and Canada? That’s anyone’s guess.

#7 Chaddywack on 05.04.12 at 8:52 pm

I just drank a 5th of Kool Aid. Dare me to buy?

#8 Frank the skank on 05.04.12 at 8:53 pm

Do you think that your last story is common? Is there a lot of people out there in such a volatile situation? I find it hard to believe and hope that people have more common sense than to extend themselves to such extremes, especially people with families. At the same time I’m a vulture waiting to feed and I’m getting hungry!

#9 Dumb Questions on 05.04.12 at 8:54 pm

There is a new condo development in North Vancouver that promises to buy your unit back from you if you dont like it once it is built. Is this for real?

New developments often advertise discounted “pre-construction prices” Is this for real? Is there some kind of discount for buying before constuction, or do prices just reflect the market at the time?

#10 Tim on 05.04.12 at 8:55 pm

Actually nobody wants to move to Toronto, at least from Montreal, but most go kicking and screaming because they need work. Montreal has way more character, better architecture, better restaurants, friendlier and more attractive woman, and a far better community spirit. What does Toronto have but a declining economy, pollution, ugly condo towers, massive traffic jams…Montreal is also fun because there are so many artistic types- the boring, money grubbing business types have left Montreal for Toronto.

#11 Jsan on 05.04.12 at 9:02 pm

The letter talking about the 20 somethings and their mortgages sounds like a TV show I caught the other night. I don’t remember the name, it was one of those “young giggly couple buys house for extraordinary amount of money than gush about how lucky they were to have won the bid” shows. Anyways, the show was in Toronto (big surprise), the young couple looked like they were barely in their 20’s with probably nary a dime to rub between their fingers and they were looking at 700-800,000 dollar houses. They were also talking about dropping another 100,000 to fix up their “not quite to their standards” house and make it their “dream” house. And of course their realtor expert was telling them what a “bargain” the almost 7 figure house was compared to comparable houses in the area. It was stunning! Again, the girl talked non stop about her “dream” house and it seemed that no amount of mortgage debt would keep them from it.

When I watch shows like this, and I rarely do, I can’t make up my mind if these “kids” are incredibly spoiled or incredibly stupid? It seems like this generation believes that not only should their standard of living be at the level of their parents the minute they move into their first place, many of them seem to think that their standard of living should be beyond their parents. Gone are the days of small starter homes or heaven forbid…….an apartment!!

I don’t know why but it never fails to amaze me?

#12 Dad on 05.04.12 at 9:07 pm

A fool who lives only for honey bunny soon finds neither sweets nor lucky feet.

#13 Jenn X on 05.04.12 at 9:11 pm

Qui ne vend rien.

Sorry. Nothing gets me less horny than bad French.

Or, you know, Penpal.

#14 TRT on 05.04.12 at 9:14 pm

To all Skilled trades workers and unskilled labour in the private sector:

Your days of $20/hr plus pay are numbered. By the end of the summer, corporations will be able to hire foreign tradespeople at 85% wage rate of similar jobs.

Maybe we should have an adult conversation on the inevitable?

1) elimination of minimum wage…whatever the global market demands.

2) education will mean less and less. Skilled trades people will be a dime a dozen.

3) Get used to the coming 3 class system: poor class (beggars), working class (live paycheque to paycheque), non-working class (who own all the assets and set the rules).

Oh, number 3…., its been like that in India and China for centuries. We were a blip to the norm for the last century or so. Back to reality.

#15 Stinky the Fish on 05.04.12 at 9:15 pm

Whats even more pathetic is me posting on a FRIDAY NIGHT

#16 Stinky the Fish on 05.04.12 at 9:15 pm

Good thing Iam hammered!

#17 Stinky the Fish on 05.04.12 at 9:16 pm

Ive gone from Guiness to Molson Dry. Pathetic

#18 MP on 05.04.12 at 9:19 pm

185 comments on yesterday’s blog and not a single one (I think?) mentioning the rockin’ bod on the chick in the pic. I am so disappointed in the blog dogs.

We’re all beyond that. — Garth

#19 Steve Thompson on 05.04.12 at 9:19 pm

Here’s an article that shows how financially stressed Canadian households would be if interest rates were raised a mere two percentage points:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2012/04/canadas-mortgage-stress-test-how.html

#20 george on 05.04.12 at 9:25 pm

“The political economy in Europe is such that the politicians chose to default on their spending obligations to their citizens in order to honor the pact with their financial creditors and so as time goes on, the politicians are being rejected.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hugh-hendry-europe-you-cant-make-how-bad-it

#21 Mr.Lee on 05.04.12 at 9:26 pm

An expanded monetary supply coupled with liberal lending policies from that various banking institutions is just part of the problem. Many have been convinced that their home is some sort of investment vehicle that will somehow produce a financial Shangri-La some time down the road when this investment is redeemed. Not only is this train of thought reckless and irresponsible, it also demonstrates the naiveté of the masses that appear to fall from one herd mentality trend to the next. I truly do hope that we in Canada experience a moderation in the home market rather than experience the sort episodes that many other countries have seen. If not, we are all in for a massive correction.

#22 Taipan on 05.04.12 at 9:30 pm

It is an often quoted myth that the only thing that can smash the bubble is increasing interest rates.

Interest rates is just 1 of the 3 main financial issues.

The other two are terms of repayment and finance availability.

Terms are in the process of being adjusted. Down from 40 to 35 to 30. (down more?) And higher deposits from 0 to 5% (maybe 10% plus in the future)

Secondly availability. In the past is you could fog a mirror you got a loan. And the banks all spun them off to CHMC. Thats ending.

And thats before you get to job losses, flat or contracting economy.

Month by month the bubble is being popped. Youve all been warned and warned and warned. If your too dumb to listen you dont deserve to keep that rented money, and the house you dont really own anyway.

Yeah lifes a bitch and then you die. Time for a lot of people of all ages to grow up big time!

#23 2muchdebt on 05.04.12 at 9:31 pm

# 7 Chaddywack

“I just drank a 5th of Kool Aid. Dare me to buy?

All my life I was very deprived
I ain’t had a woman in years, and my palms are too hairy to hide

LOL…many will not get it…but I did…nice one

#24 Fred on 05.04.12 at 9:34 pm

“and how “awesome” one guy’s mortgage was because you could miss payments a couple of times a year with no hassle.”

Yeah, I just saw the green bank’s ad. You know, the one with the ditzy young couple in a diner with the geriatric uncles. Where the girl is explaining how wonderful their mortgage is because they’re allowed to take “mortgage vacations”.

I swear that if banks were allowed to, they’d dish out free shots of crack cocaine for anyone agreeing to be a client. No morals whatsoever.

#25 betamax on 05.04.12 at 9:45 pm

#18 MP: “185 comments on yesterday’s blog and not a single one (I think?) mentioning the rockin’ bod on the chick in the pic.”

DELETED

#26 Jsan on 05.04.12 at 9:45 pm

#14 TRT on 05.04.12 at 9:14 pm

To all Skilled trades workers and unskilled labour in the private sector:

Your days of $20/hr plus pay are numbered. By the end of the summer, corporations will be able to hire foreign tradespeople at 85% wage rate of similar jobs.

Maybe we should have an adult conversation on the inevitable?

1) elimination of minimum wage…whatever the global market demands.

2) education will mean less and less. Skilled trades people will be a dime a dozen.

3) Get used to the coming 3 class system: poor class (beggars), working class (live paycheque to paycheque), non-working class (who own all the assets and set the rules).

Oh, number 3…., its been like that in India and China for centuries. We were a blip to the norm for the last century or so. Back to reality.

=====================================

We recently hired someone for our company. It was a skilled technical (engineering) position. Out of the pile of resumes roughly 95% were new or relatively new foreign workers. When we did the interviews the question was asked what are your salary expectations, we almost choked on each answer. These people were willing to work for peanuts vs what we earned. We hired a fellow, he is new to the country and an excellent worker . There are very skilled, very competent foreign workers lining up and willing to work for a fraction of what we are presently paid and the corporations know this. I mentioned to a co-worker how without these foreign workers, our skills were highly sought after by allot of companies and the wages reflected this. With an influx of foreign workers, our skills become less important and we become somewhat expendable.

This does not bode well for future salaries.

#27 betamax on 05.04.12 at 9:47 pm

Reader: “What is your best advice to my Sister and Brother-in-Law based on their situation?”

Nada. Zip. He won’t listen, and it’s too late anyway.

#28 AACI Okanagan on 05.04.12 at 9:51 pm

#145 };-) aka DA on 05.04.12 at 3:32 pm

Ok, which office is it and which appraiser should I ask for?

#179 };-) aka DA on 05.04.12 at 7:47 pm

Hiding behind that handle allows me to comment matters of real estate matters others might take issue with for one reason or another

I think it best that I remain anonymous

Maybe one of these day’s I too will (figuratively) come out of the closet and disclose my true identity. Until then I remain…
——————————————————–

so does that mean you are not coming down to my office? [email protected]

#29 Chaddywack on 05.04.12 at 9:54 pm

#24 2muchdebt

I was waiting to see if someone would get it. :)

#30 Bill Gable on 05.04.12 at 9:56 pm

Oxymoron – financial literacy.

I have stopped talking about RE in Vancouver. People here are scaredy barmy.

Right over the edge, they are!

I have a bruv from Lomdon dat says he finks `da people here in Canada are soft in the cranial region, because of where we are.

So many people in trouble, and deep down, they know it.

I could never sleep when I owed money. I literally starved for a number of years in Radio, and let me tell you, when you start learning the hard way, the lessons never leave.

Pay attention, sparky. When the host says something, listen.

He is generous with his views, and frankly, doesn`t appreciate or tolerate anyone who bad mouths Harleys`s.

You hsve been warned.

#31 East Van on 05.04.12 at 10:03 pm

Powerful stuff:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/05/04/taxpayers-also-victims-of-hot-money-behind-canadas-condo-bubbles/

#32 Smoking Man on 05.04.12 at 10:08 pm

Wisdom from Smoking Man

DELETED

#33 zeeman on 05.04.12 at 10:22 pm

hi

what are the stats on people owning property with very little down payment if any.

i am being told that this represents a small percentage of homeowners. most have been able to build up equity with the price appreciation we have seen over the last few years.

and dont you think that the govt will step in to stop any major correction from happening like they are doing in australia….canada is very similiar to australia..

#34 MarcFromOttawa on 05.04.12 at 10:25 pm

TSX under 12,000 for a loss YTD

^SPX and ^DJI both well over 10% YTD.

Don’t bet against America?

The Loonie could go to 80cents US and there’s your 20% correction for Canadian RE.

#35 Koolaid Drinker on 05.04.12 at 10:27 pm

#10 Tim

Montreal has better architecture? Oh please.. like what? The Expo Stadium? The Casino? But I do agree with you that there are more artistic types in Montreal, especially the one that draw on the sidewalk begging for quarters.

#36 Smoking Man on 05.04.12 at 10:29 pm

Seriously garth. Deleted it was realy me not fake dude. Black Berry post no link up top but thanks

What the hell did I say. Poetry I think

I watching people dancE at the bar + 50

Gross.

Ok I will try again with poetry bubble somethin

What I love is when the schooled the text book crowed makle bets small win O the orgasum

What tax farm slave don’t under stand is some times lady luck shows her bumps some times she slaps you

Every algo every stratagy gets bitch slaped. When we lose it someone elses fault. When we win its genious

Do you commoners not realize how amazing I an

Garth I used the word bump hope that doest warent the delete button

#37 99% on 05.04.12 at 10:30 pm

Richmond, BC:

new listings today – 43
price reduction -14
sales -5

#38 Smoking Man on 05.04.12 at 10:37 pm

DELETED

#39 I wish you were a beer on 05.04.12 at 10:38 pm

To all Skilled trades workers and unskilled labour in the private sector:

Your days of $20/hr plus pay are numbered. By the end of the summer, corporations will be able to hire foreign tradespeople at 85% wage rate of similar jobs.

Source?

Also, if the guy who costs 85% doesn’t have perfect fluency in english (or french), he’s not worth the risk…….One measly industrial accident will completely wipe out pre-tax profit margin on $1M of productivity.

#40 Not 1st on 05.04.12 at 10:46 pm

60 with a mortgage….that explains everything right there.

#41 Angela on 05.04.12 at 10:53 pm

I love sitting on my deck with a cold beer on a warm day watching my landlord sweating over the lawnmower.

#42 Jon B on 05.04.12 at 10:55 pm

I think the reader-submitted letters are an excellent addition to this pathetic blog. They offer an insight that is rarely available in the traditional news media. Individual accounts of how RE prices and debt affect families and their way of life are valuable learning opportunities for everyone. I hope contents in the mail bag appear more often.

#43 NFN_NLN on 05.04.12 at 11:02 pm

#27 Jsan on 05.04.12 at 9:45 pm

We recently hired someone for our company. It was a skilled technical (engineering) position. Out of the pile of resumes roughly 95% were new or relatively new foreign workers. When we did the interviews the question was asked what are your salary expectations, we almost choked on each answer. These people were willing to work for peanuts vs what we earned.

So go ahead and hire that worker. If he’s as good as you expect he’ll be looking for a better paying job armed with the local resume entry you just gave him. You’ll be out the time you invested to get him up to speed. Or you’ll just cave and start paying him more.

On the other hand if he doesn’t live up to expectations, at least you’ll have a worker who is worth what you’re paying him.

These people aren’t idiots. Everyone wants to get as much as they can. When it comes to salary expectations, either they don’t realize how much cost of living is here (and soon will) or they know you “temporarily” have them over a barrel.

#44 WaterlooResident on 05.04.12 at 11:05 pm

I’m not sure if this is true or not, but the guy’s been correct 12 out of the past 12 times, so most likely he is correct.

This has serious impact for the Canadian economy because by all measures we will follow America down too.

What he says is this: AMERICA WILL FALL INTO RECESSION MID-2012 ! You can bet your life on that.

Watch the video (“U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low”) and crap your pants:

http://www.businesscycle.com/#

#45 furst on 05.04.12 at 11:41 pm

FURST!!!!! All bow before your leader, FFUUUURRRRRSST!

#46 McLovin on 05.04.12 at 11:46 pm

Smoking man vs DA in a hunger games.

#47 Christopher Lackey on 05.04.12 at 11:50 pm

#24 & #30- Clothes ripped like the incredible hulk
I spit when I talk
I —- anything that walks
When I was a baby I used to get so angry I would throw fits
“How you gonna breastfeed me maw you ain’t got no t—?!”
Only the absurdity of eminems first hit can lighten up an Canadian housing bubble conversation on friday night

#48 Carpe Diem on 05.04.12 at 11:55 pm

#18 MP

Your sister married a loser who thinks not of his legacy.

He enjoys for the next 15 years, dies and then leaves his wife and kids having to fend for themselves. No RESP, no RRSP and debt.

I’m in my early 40’s my wife in her early 30’s. We have 3 kids under 7.

In 10 years, I expect my family maxed out on RESP and should I pass away enough for them to complete university and the wife to be very well off should I pass away. If not, I retire while my kids have all the education money for a Master’s degree.

Your BIL is an asshole who is not only stupid but selffish. I think, after death, he will come back as an ant and although I will try to not step on them, might. Opps one karma point for that asshole ant.

#49 NotAGreaterFool on 05.04.12 at 11:57 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/5/4/Welcoming-a-soft-landing-for-home-prices-TD-CFO.aspx

Soft landing of 10-15% predicted by TD economists. Real estate is a low risk asset in Bank’s portfolio.

#50 moustique on 05.05.12 at 12:02 am

Dear Garth:

You might have seen this interesting “story”.

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/updates/study-reveals-secret-canadian-bank-bailout

Is this, in your opinion, credible?

#51 just my 2 cents on 05.05.12 at 12:08 am

My best advice for your brother in law is he should buy the maximum value he can put in a life insurance.

#52 disciple on 05.05.12 at 12:16 am

Financial literacy? These 20-somethings get advice like this below, so why should we be surprised? Should I laugh or cry?

“What you gon’ do with all that junk?
All that junk inside your trunk?
I’ma get, get, get, get, you drunk,
Get you love drunk off my hump.
My hump, my hump, my hump, my hump, my hump,
My hump, my hump, my hump, my lovely little lumps (Check it out)”

#53 Retired Boomer - WI on 05.05.12 at 12:26 am

Smoking Man

You must be in RARE form tonight. 2 Deletes…a record??

The EU saw Batman, Canada saw RE, we saw a re-run.

#54 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.05.12 at 12:32 am


Good post. Asked and answered!
*
#186 totalinvestor.com on 05.04.12 at 9:49 pm — “Is that Octomom with her kids?”

Latest is she may do porn, as she is completely broke.

#17 Stinky the Fish — “Ive gone from Guiness to Molson Dry. Pathetic” — Agreed.

#31 Bill Gable — “. . . when you start learning the hard way, the lessons never leave.” — Sometimes it’s the only way people learn, having the rug pulled out from under their feet and having to start again.
*
Cdn. Financial links in; US – China Phony currency war? Plus BRICS currency war;
Why There are no jobs; Public Sector sinking; Wall St. disabled? Norway Cleansing itself of EU debt holdings; Currency Debasement and social collapse or revolutions; CEO pay 200 times more than workers; Catastophic Oz; California Dreaming; Payroll Ups and Downs; UK Downward Spiral Financially and otherwise; RBS making hay again; Mandelson He is a stooge for the Rothschilds, which is why he is calling for an EU vote.

Court overturns condo sale; Garth Is this your bunker? 4:28 clip Don’t use paper towels anymore; Halloween Jobs Forecast; Stay at home Moms About time they were paid; Foreign Ownership Buying lotsa land; U6 Chart and the Beveridge Curve; Baby Boomers Permanently jobless; ; Expensive Material Junk Can’t take it with you, so may as well enjoy it; Entrepreneurship declines.
*
Lao Tzu Still years ahead of humanity; Zombie Apocalypse; Odistractioons or how to steal an election; Agenda 21 Plans for implementing it; Fukushima First para. is good, but it’s all ‘maybe’s’, ‘what ifs’ etc. so far; 8:42 clip Russian with Eng. subtitles. Venus, blood moon etc.; Demon Star? Cameron told to up the ante; Wonder if this has anything to do with Mandelson calling for an EU Referendum? Pawno shot . . . of a cloud; Beastie Boys One them has gone on.

#55 Hoof - Hearted on 05.05.12 at 12:38 am

I thought this was a soft porn site..not a fire and brimstone $ermon belching from the pulpit….

Oh well, at least Smoking Man is down to a six pack with breakfast.

#56 Freedom First on 05.05.12 at 12:42 am

2 quotes to do with advice: 1) A wise man needs no advice and a fool never takes it. 2) A smart man learns from his mistakes, and a wise man learns from the mistakes of others.

Lastly, trying to correct a fool will only make him angry. Also a quote.

#57 Riding the Pine on 05.05.12 at 12:56 am

#32 East Van

Great link.

I think this information could be the missing link in the “foreign investor” speculations that have sparked up around here…much worse than I could have imagined. If true, this would make sense of the nonsensical condo market in major cities. Just another example of the government asleep at the wheel.

I hear a lot about the bigger issue being the condo markets, but how are SFHs not directly affected? Aren’t a significant amount of first time SFH buyers coming from sold condos? And aren’t most of the middle market SFH buyers coming from those entry level SFHs? Isn’t the condo just the first domino to fall? This is assuming that we’re not all living in our parent’s basements…maybe that’s the new RE chic now. You save enough money so you don’t have to water down your dad’s liquor supply.

#58 Devore on 05.05.12 at 1:24 am

I think Garth Turner is just ranting and raving. I could probably find dozens of articles from other analysts who think differently. The Bank of Canada will keep the prime at 1% because ncreasing interest rates would hurt the economy even more than it already is.

Unfortunately for this BIL, the market is not a democracy, so it doesn’t matter what dozens of other analysts think.

And interest rates do not need to go up for the bubbles to pop, they’re doing just fine on their own. At the same time, deflating leveraged asset values will put a crimp on his lifestyle and put an end to re-financing while increasing his payments.

Will he even know what hit him?

#59 The Real Jimbo on 05.05.12 at 1:27 am

#27… “I mentioned to a co-worker how without these foreign workers, our skills were highly sought after by allot of companies and the wages reflected this. With an influx of foreign workers, our skills become less important and we become somewhat expendable. This does not bode well for future salaries.”

I figured this out years ago when my little company bid on a contract and an Indian company undercut us… with a bid 1/10 the price. Engineers have been on the front lines of this new reality for quite some time.

The old “white collar professional versus blue collar trades” consideration is now irrelevant when it comes to young people deciding their futures. I’m teaching my kids to pursue a career or profession that CAN’T BE OUTSOURCED and required excellent communication skills (as opposed to an ESL level).

#60 Smoking Man on 05.05.12 at 1:31 am

Ban at the bar at senica doing pin ball wizord trying to think of something cool to say

Can’t the booze eats my vitamin B12. The hotties in the short skirts should make me put this black berry down

Took some shots of track 6 today 300 or so just me on track 5 what is wrong with people. Will post on blog

Funny. Battary low night night kids

#61 The Thing in the Basement on 05.05.12 at 1:34 am

42 Angela – there’s a “mow the lawn joke” somewhere there….

From the first poster

“Last winter a sewer backup took out the basement suite
(landlord’s 22 year old daughter lives there
occasionally) – nothing more satisfying than
knowing “it’s not my problem”. The followup ended up
being a total replacement of the drainage around the
house – $7k bill to the landlord.”

How does a problem with the perimeter drains become an issue with the sewer?

#62 Makavelli on 05.05.12 at 1:35 am

I know a young couple that bought a condo in Richmond in 2009. Just recently they bought another condo in downtown Van. They plan to rent out the downtown condo. I’m not sure what they paid but the Richmond condo they own is worth about $450k at the peak and likely around 400 now. That’s the worst move they could make because both of their properties are a high risk investment. Death by Condo. I know they don’t have that much money and they have downed the kool aid. I think they’re really screwed because they likely bought with little down. What terrible timing too and makes me sick to my stomach.

#63 Devore on 05.05.12 at 1:57 am

#9 Dumb Questions

There is a new condo development in North Vancouver that promises to buy your unit back from you if you dont like it once it is built. Is this for real?

They can, and will, promise anything. Read the contract.

New developments often advertise discounted “pre-construction prices” Is this for real? Is there some kind of discount for buying before constuction, or do prices just reflect the market at the time?

Pre-construction is supposed to sell at a discount, because you are buying years in advance, taking on risk, and financing the operation. In practice, pre-constructions have been selling at a premium to re-sales for years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3IrWk0hy6Q

#64 Crash Callaway on 05.05.12 at 2:13 am

Regarding the last letter from the brother of the 45 yr old sister and 60 yr old brother in law with 500k mortgage.

Brother, if you have extra bedrooms or a comfy basement in your home quickly turn them into non liveable areas cuz that family’s gonna be pounding on your door to move in when the rug is pulled out on their misguided real estate beliefs.
Carrying that kind of mortgage at age 60 on one income is certifiable.

#65 Ship on 05.05.12 at 2:16 am

I crave democracy and pouting

O
O
O
O

#66 Ship on 05.05.12 at 2:17 am

Plugins. Poutine poutine

Stupid Kelly

O
O

#67 Ship on 05.05.12 at 2:18 am

Charist I hate this word help

#68 Crash Callaway on 05.05.12 at 2:25 am

Mel in Victoria wrote
“It’s just too hot to wear clothes today,” Garth says as he stepped out of the shower, “Honey, what might the neighbors think if I were to mow the lawn like this?” To which she replied “Probably that I married you for your money.”

Good one Mel… brings to mind one year 1983 after spending a few years of the rat race in Calgary. Wife & I decided to be back to the landers. Sold off the worldly goods & ended up in the Gatineau Hills Quebec.
Well one fine morning I got the brainwave to mow the lawn naked which I did….
Unaware of my escapade, the wife commented later that morning that it sure got lonely there and wondered why we didn’t get any visitors.
Go figger!

#69 new-era on 05.05.12 at 2:51 am

#11 Jsan

Most kids today believe “It’s their Rights to have get what they want’

They never lived through a depression and don’t under stand proverty and suffering. In my opinion most are Lazy asses and don’t understand Risk or any economical concept.

BTW, I keep on hearing low interest rates are good for the economy. Keynesian Economics is good for the short term, but long term can lead to more damage to the economy than good. Take a look at Japan 26 years in the shithole with no end in site. BTW it was real estate which brought that economy to its knees.

Take a look at the USA, Greece and the rest of the Euro countries. Low rate leads to more debt.

Humans are no better than common houseflies stuck in a bottle with an slice of apple. They will multiply and multiply until the apple is gone, then they will all starve and die!!!

I believe CMHC is the apple, time will tell what happens next.

#70 wicked as it seems on 05.05.12 at 3:10 am

There are a million RE stories out there and contents in the mail bag are a very enjoyable way of understanding the depths of the mindless players involved, or the poor family that works hard but is going to loose everything because of bubble entrapment.
I personally want to read more insightful first hand accounts while this all unfolds on our daily blog.

#71 dd on 05.05.12 at 3:32 am

The US is in recovery “unemployment rate fell.” Think again.

Predicted job growth 175k and actual 115K. 340k people left the labour force – that is why there is an improvement in UE numbers. So actually the stats are getting worse.

#72 Smoking Man on 05.05.12 at 4:58 am

DELETED

#73 Mr Buyer on 05.05.12 at 6:28 am

#34 zeeman on 05.04.12 at 10:22 pm

and dont you think that the govt will step in to stop any major correction from happening like they are doing in australia….canada is very similiar to australia..
……………………………………………………………………..
What exactly will the government do that it already hasn’t done and is doing. I mean 2% or even 1% and a guarantee it will not be raised for 40years along with loans to anybody that applies will not prevent a crash. It is a bubble and bubbles crash. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE (AND NOT FOR A FEW YEARS YET)

#74 Condo Zombies are Stalking the Land on 05.05.12 at 7:01 am

“Hard to believe people can live six decades and know so little. ” Garth

Hard to believe people can live six decades and HAVE so little!

#75 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.05.12 at 7:11 am

22-year olds bragging about mortgages — I guess years and years of non-stop Big Bank advertising telling everyone old and young that being a debt slave is the path to retirement actually worked?

Maybe a more honest advertising campaign could open their eyes:

“You’re richer in your mind because you don’t know how to think.”

“Your net worth is more negative than you think!”

“Your teenage sibling without student loans, credit cards, and a mortgage is in far better financial shape than you are… wouldn’t ya think?”

#76 House on 05.05.12 at 7:19 am

You think home buyers are stupid! The Canadian Club name Markie Man of the Year – now that’s where the morons are!

#77 Mr Buyer on 05.05.12 at 8:24 am

#44 NFN_NLN on 05.04.12 at 11:02 pm
These people aren’t idiots. Everyone wants to get as much as they can. When it comes to salary expectations, either they don’t realize how much cost of living is here (and soon will) or they know you “temporarily” have them over a barrel.
……………………………………………………………………
Or maybe they have never seen so much money in their lives and know how to live very cheaply and are duty bound to do so. A job at low pay is better than no job after all. How am I going to get that job. Work harder longer smarter faster than the other people qualified for the job. What did we expect when we bought the whole globalization thing. Sure it has been a boon to some sectors but the kiss of death to others.

#78 John on 05.05.12 at 8:52 am

Jsan wrote:

“their realtor expert was telling them what a “bargain” the almost 7 figure house was compared to comparable houses in the area. It was stunning! Again, the girl talked non stop about her “dream” house and it seemed that no amount of mortgage debt would keep them from it.”

You said you were amazed by this. Why? In one part of your post you talk of reality: the “girl”( as above). And then, seamlessly, you go back to “couples”. The real estate bubble is genderless…dehumanized…without identity or community. That’s how it happened. You expose that clearly. Human beings have a very strong tendency for community. Tribe if you like. That’s led by men. Not a “weak malevolent addicted king” as per the western lifestyle, but by a man ( or men).

Women ( for example in Toronto) are on strike with the collapsed essential human leadership. At least they get the “booby prize” of a cheap money trap from the Goldman Sachs et al network.

In the twisted American tradition, the man used to tolerate the female “coming out” wedding festival costs…which became another consumer nightmare. Then, in the true spirit of castration, moved along to add 400-900 thousand dollars of international debt…financed through a “local” “Canadian” “bank”. Confusing terms to say the least.

The dark shadow of the Canadian Real Estate Disaster
( as part of a global trance) is about culture and values.

And it’s just the surface. In Canada and anywhere else the ponzi operates, it’s all about “tolerance” and “open mind”. It’s a whitewash for a collective agenda that has very little to do with democracy.

Just a little sidenote. Imagine the 28 year old single Toronto guy walking around. Women are a mirror of his deal. Do they look at him? Talk to him? What would happen if he looked at a woman? Would she talk to him?

Next…what normally happens when ( if) there is some kind of contact? What do you think the dynamic is? Who’s the boss? If you were a woman, how would you feel about drawing from a de-polarized dating pool?

The very very least she’ll demand for this masculine failure is an impossibly expensive and life-destroying booby prize.

As you can see, men are still leading.

#79 Ben on 05.05.12 at 9:13 am

“Your more in debt then you think”

#80 Aussie Roy on 05.05.12 at 9:29 am

Aussie Headlines

Australia Has an ‘Obvious’ Credit Bubble

According to Edwards, the lack of volatility in the Australian economic cycle and the absence of any recession since 1991 has led Australians to have an “excessive” appetite for debt in the belief the “future will reflect the past”.

“But for us, suppressed volatility is merely storing up an even bigger crash further down the road,” he wrote in report published Thursday.

Paul Gambles, Managing Partner at independent financial consultancy MBMG, agrees that there is a large credit bubble in Australia’s banking sector, and a hard landing in China is going to be the catalyst that “pricks” the bubble.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47290031

Billions of dollars of covered bonds issued by Australia’s so-called “big four” banks since last year have made it harder for other Australian companies to tap overseas debt markets, two senior executives at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) said on Friday.

The banks–Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ.AU), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU), National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) and Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC.AU)–have issued more than $26 billion in covered bonds since the government relaxed restrictions on the asset class last year, according to data from Dealogic.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/05/04/lloyds-executives-big-four-banks-covered-bond-spree-has-hurt-aussie-corporate/

The tax office’s latest taxation statistics released this week highlight the willingness of many Australians to initially lose money on direct property investments as their costs exceed their rent.

Their expectation, of course, is that rising rents and capital gains will eventually make the investment worthwhile.

The taxation statistics report for 2009-10 shows Australia’s individual property investors claimed a breathtaking $4.8 billion in negative-gearing deductions.

http://blogs.news.com.au/news/smartinvesting/index.php/news/comments/property_losers_at_least_initially/

Two things happened yesterday that suggest to me that the Australian economy could be headed for recession. The first was the collapse of the First Fleet trucking company and the second was the release of the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Service Index (PSI) which slumped 7.4 points. Houses and Holes covered it well in his piece here yesterday which he title “Something just snapped in the economy”.

http://lighthousesecurities.wordpress.com/2012/05/04/australian-recession-coming/

#81 Aussie Roy on 05.05.12 at 9:35 am

Aussie Headlines

Nation of loss-making landlords

According to the ATO, there were 1,751,679 property investors declared to the ATO in 2009-10 – representing one in seven taxpayers – an increase of 59,235 from the 2008-09 financial year.

Total losses on investment properties were $4.810 billion in 2009-10, or $2746 per property investor, down from $6.528 billion ($3857 per investor) in 2008-09.

Of the 1,751,679 property investors recorded by the ATO in 2009-10, 63% or 1,110,922 were “negatively geared”, meaning that holding costs (eg, interest payments, maintenance, and other costs) outweighed income from rents.

Of these negatively geared investors, nearly three-quarters earned less than $80,000 in 2009-10, and the average loss was $9132 per negatively geared investor, or $176 per week.

Not only are investment property holdings In Australia concentrated in lower-to-middle income groups, but also older age cohorts.

According to the 2009-10 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Household Wealth and Wealth Distribution, nearly three-quarters of Australia’s investment properties by value were held by individuals aged 45 and over, with Australia’s Baby Boomer generation (45 to 64 years-old in 2009-10) holding just over 55 per cent of these homes.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/property/nation-of-lossmaking-landlords-20120430-1xuh4.html

No bubble here – LOL.

#82 brainsail on 05.05.12 at 9:36 am

I am going to be way off-topic.

Happy Cinco de Mayo from Central Texas!

“Literally “the Fifth of May,” Cinco de Mayo is a Mexican Holiday celebrating the Battle of Puebla, which took place on May 5, 1862. In 1861, France sent a massive army to invade Mexico, as they wanted to collect on some war debts. The French army was much larger, better trained and equipped than the Mexicans struggling to defend the road to Mexico City. It rolled through Mexico until it reached Puebla, where the Mexicans made a valiant stand, and, against all logic, won a huge victory. It was short-lived, as the French army regrouped and continued; eventually taking Mexico City, but the euphoria of an unlikely victory against overwhelming odds is remembered every May fifth.”

“For some reason, Cinco de Mayo is celebrated more in the United States of America, by Mexicans and Americans alike, than it is in Mexico. One theory for why it is more popular in the USA is that at one time, it was celebrated in all of Mexico and by Mexicans living in former Mexican territories such as Texas and California.”

http://latinamericanhistory.about.com/od/thehistoryofmexico/p/10cincodemayobasics.htm

#83 Makavelli on 05.05.12 at 9:42 am

Devore,

“New developments often advertise discounted “pre-construction prices” Is this for real? Is there some kind of discount for buying before constuction, or do prices just reflect the market at the time?”

Pre-construction is supposed to sell at a discount, because you are buying years in advance, taking on risk, and financing the operation. In practice, pre-constructions have been selling at a premium to re-sales for years.
—————————————-

You also get interest paid on your deposit. I got a cheque for almost $2000 on a $45k deposit for 13 months of waiting for my unit to complete.

#84 J.I.M. on 05.05.12 at 9:48 am

Garth

Any comments about this one?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/financial-facelift/house-rich-but-career-challenged/article2423587/

Going down. — Garth

#85 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 9:51 am

#14TRT on 05.04.12 at 9:14 pm
To all Skilled trades workers and unskilled labour in the private sector:

Your days of $20/hr plus pay are numbered. By the end of the summer, corporations will be able to hire foreign tradespeople at 85% wage rate of similar jobs.

Maybe we should have an adult conversation on the inevitable?

1) elimination of minimum wage…whatever the global market demands.

2) education will mean less and less. Skilled trades people will be a dime a dozen.

3) Get used to the coming 3 class system: poor class (beggars), working class (live paycheque to paycheque), non-working class (who own all the assets and set the rules).

Oh, number 3…., its been like that in India and China for centuries. We were a blip to the norm for the last century or so. Back to reality.

Yes getting “back to reality” might be a good thing for you to do. I think Form Man will support me when I say:

1. Skilled trades people in Canada earn A LOT MORE than $20.00 per hour.

2. It is not so much “corporations” which build Canadian homes as it is general contractors (incorporated or not) which do not have the resources to outsource such trades.

3. The quality of Canadian home construction rivals that of most other countries by a long shot. While more indiscernible to the layperson Canadian home construction must take into account a variety of climatic factors not present in other countries. In my travels I have constantly been dismayed by the lower construction standards. Yes there are, in many countries, solidly built homes but by today’s international standard I would have to say Canadian builders easily rank in the top 10% and the subtrades are largely responsible for that. So outsource? I don’t think so.

What say you Form Man?

Oh and on the education thing… what don’t you undersand about the phrase “a fool and his money are soon to be parted”. Education is EVERYTHING… but make no mistake when Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain) said “don’t let your education get in the way of your learning” it was with good reason.

#86 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 9:56 am

#18MP on 05.04.12 at 9:19 pm
185 comments on yesterday’s blog and not a single one (I think?) mentioning the rockin’ bod on the chick in the pic. I am so disappointed in the blog dogs.

We’re all beyond that. — Garth

Seriously… I thought it was my wife. But she’s not blonde. Yes boys, she’s just that hot and still rockin’ after 50. Seriously. And she’s got a brain too. Why she agreed to marry me 30 years ago I haven’t a clue. But I do know her and my genes produced some pretty amazing results. };-)

21 Suggestions for Success:

#1. Marry the right person. This one decision will determine 90% or your happiness or misery

#21. Don’t do anything that wouldn’t make your Mom proud.

#87 Barrington on 05.05.12 at 10:08 am

Hey, first time poster, long time reader.

Recently there was a train driver posted on here. Started with E I think. I’m a train driver in Oz. Any jobs going? I would love to escape the real estate bubble here.

Oh, wait…

#88 Lilyflor on 05.05.12 at 10:09 am

i’ve lived in Toronto, the GTA and greater Montreal, and while Montreal is a much nicer city than TO proper I prefer the GTA, there is so much more diversity and I was never much of the artsy type

#89 The American on 05.05.12 at 10:14 am

Happy CINCO DE MAYO!!!!!!!! Now, I’m going to go get hammered.

#90 meslippery on 05.05.12 at 10:20 am

# 27
Isn,t it great ? for those of us who thought we where
immune to outsourcing of our jobs.
Its been happening for years in trucking.
Drivers are working for less than I was getting 12
years ago.

#91 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 10:20 am

Getting back to the topic of real estate…

According to the Okanagan Mainline Buyers Surveys thus far this year, of all the properties sold in the Okanagan

64% are to people who reside in the local Board area already
15% are from Alberta
10% are from the Lower Mainland of British Columbia
8% are from other areas of British Columbia
2% are from Saskatchewan and Manitoba
1% are from Eastern Canada

a small contingent of less than 0.5% were from NWT/Yukon and outside Canada which were lost in the rounding of the above

Those people who bought funded their purchase by

53% obtained a conventional mortgage (had more than 20% down)
24% purchased with all cash
23% purchased with a high ratio mortgage (less than 20% down)

Those who bought could be categorized as follows

25% First Time Buyers
20% Move Up Buyers
15% Revenue Property Buyers
10% Moving from Single Family to Strata
5% Moving to a Retirement Community
4% Purchasing a Recreational Property
4% Moving from a Strata property to Single Family

Of the unaccounted for 17% no explanation

• Stats taken from rounded average of January, February and March 2012 Survey Results. April 2012 to be released this week

#92 Grantmi on 05.05.12 at 10:37 am

#10 Tim on 05.04.12 at 8:55 pm
Actually nobody wants to move to Toronto, at least from Montreal, but most go kicking and screaming because they need work. Montreal has way more character, better architecture, better restaurants, friendlier and more attractive woman, and a far better community spirit.

And Montreal also has a bunch of spoiled whiny “I want tuition for free” students, who have the lowest secondary education rates in all of Canada.

Merci!!

#93 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 10:39 am

Further to my previous post, for that time frame to which those Buyers Surveys apply (Jan-April 2012)

There were 1,755 residential properties of all types sold Board wide to which the survey results apply.

The average sales was $358,810 on an average last list price of $376,242 after an average 128 days on the market (for the current listing and not accounting for an previous that may have applied to those properties)

The average property was of 3 bedrooms, 2 bathroom and 1,814 square feet.

52% were in the Kelowna area
21% were in the Vernon area
8% were in the Central Okanagan but not Kelowna
8% were in the Shuswap/Revelstoke areas
6% were in the North Okanagan but not Salmon Arm or Vernon
5% were in the Salmon Arm area

Rounded averages for the first quarter (Jan-Mar) 2012

#94 truth hammer on 05.05.12 at 10:41 am

#65 CC….certifiable yes….and all too common these days. Age does not define logic or intelligence….all to often the people you’d have would be insensitive to the bs advertised by the pimps have been the biggest suckers. Many of these ‘house rich’ people actually fell for the ‘move up’ crapola and went into huge mortgages after they’d paid off the comfortable home they’d lived in for thrity to fourty years….and ended up paying hyperinflated prices that sucked up all their equity and saddled them with outrageous mortgages all with ZIRP money……..only now comes the pain.

Compunding this bonehead stretegy these same people have gone out in droves to refinance because the ‘numbers’ drove them crazy and misled them into thinking they are ‘rich’ by living in a million dollar house that in reality they only rent from the bank……..these same people who should have been financially comfortable are not in debt up to their eyeballs because they were enticed to borrow by an evil cabal ( gov-re pimps-media) at ZIRP rates.

Here’s an example of a woman who thinks she’s rich because she owns a house in TO….look at the rest of her finances and see the real bottom line of not having a pot to piss in after the market corrects and rates finally are forced up by US policy adjustments……likely after the Nov election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/financial-facelift/house-rich-but-career-challenged/article2423587/page2/

#95 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.05.12 at 10:46 am

#45 WaterlooResident on 05.04.12 at 11:05 pm

13th time unlucky.
This is an election year in the USA.
A recession won’t happen. Watch and learn.

#96 jess on 05.05.12 at 10:48 am

electronic trading systems – “owning the desk top” “first-mover advantage” e.g GSessions
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) will start an electronic trading system for corporate bonds this month as the fifth-biggest U.S. bank adapts to regulatory changes and competition

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-04/goldman-sachs-said-to-prepare-trading-system-for-corporate-bonds.html

=
con men- manipulated the value of stocks they sold to investors in part by paying brokers 400 percent commissions to promote the stocks.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/04/ross-mandell-wall-street-bad-boy_n_1477434.html?ref=business
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sarah-anderson/wall-streets-speed-demons_b_1474355.html?ref=canada-business&ir=Canada%20BusinessBroken Markets: How High Frequency Trading and Predatory Practices on Wall Street are Destroying Investor Confidence and Your Portfolio [Hardcover

#97 Cory on 05.05.12 at 10:50 am

See what I mean?

http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/video/real+estate+boom+in+calgary/video.html?v=2231046156&p=2&s=dd#video

It is NOT going to end.

#98 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.05.12 at 10:59 am

#72 dd on 05.05.12 at 3:32 am
“The US is in recovery “unemployment rate fell.” Think again.

Predicted job growth 175k and actual 115K. 340k people left the labour force – that is why there is an improvement in UE numbers. So actually the stats are getting worse.”
_________________
10,000 boomers retiring in the USA everyday.
More jobs available in the near future.
Watch and learn. Duh…

#99 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 11:06 am

* * * Correction to my previous post * * *

There were 1,221 Properties Sold in the timeframe to which those surveys applied. The 1,755 figure is that number of sales inclusive of April for which the survey results are yet to be released
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

So based on simple math and the above stats about 110 Kelowna properties were purchased by Albertans in the first 3 months of this year.

A respectable number wouldn’t you agree Form Man?

Only about 7 Kelowna properties were sold to people from the Eastern provinces of the country in the first three months of this year.

#100 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.05.12 at 11:08 am

#87 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 9:56 am

Love is blind.

#101 Not 1st on 05.05.12 at 11:10 am

Garth, lots of prices on oil and utility stocks have trickled down in the last few weeks making their dividend very juicy – 7 or 8% is not hard to find. Whats your thoughts on that sector?

#102 Nicole on 05.05.12 at 11:29 am

Check out this lady’s situation:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/financial-facelift/house-rich-but-career-challenged/article2423587/

she’s 47 with a falling income and about 95% of her net worth is equity in 2 real estate properties…both in Toronto…and she wants to by a third property…so she can retire early…

/we are so screwed

#103 GregW, Oakville on 05.05.12 at 11:41 am

Hi Garth, Someone may be interested in these;

-TVO Big Ideas Sat&[email protected] or on line anytime.
http://bigideas.tvo.org/
“This weekend’s talk is by the eminent British psychiatrist Iain McGilchrist. He is the author of The Master and the Emissary, a study about the scientific significance and social implications of the differences between the two brain hemispheres.

In this lecture – another one co-produced by BIG IDEAS and the Literary Review of Canada – Iain McGilchrist attempts to connect the rising rate of mental illnesses with an analysis of how modern society contributes to an imbalance between the right and left hemisphere…”

-Wed May 16, 11:30am, Toronto Canadian Club speaker
The Order of Canada: Stories behind the people
A conversation with Rex Murphy
http://canadianclub.org/Events/EventDetails.aspx?id=3194

#104 DonDWest on 05.05.12 at 11:43 am

“I can remember … my mother catching me throwing a penny in the garbage because I couldn’t buy anything with it.” – Jim Flaherty, March 5th, 2012

This was announced by Flaherty at the Royal Canadian Mint as the last penny went into production.

R.I.P Canada. Remember this day. . .

With values such as the following espoused by Flaherty when he was a child, it’s no wonder we’ve become a country of cheap credit.

What is an intelligent young man to do when the world is run by stupid old people?!

#105 John G. Young on 05.05.12 at 11:44 am

#163 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.04.12 at 4:52 pm

Another great joke, thank you!

Here’s one that touches on some of the themes of this blog and our host: justice, booze, animals, and Amazons. It’s mildly off-colour so it might get deleted, but here goes…

A man (you fill in what province he comes from) has committed a crime. The judge tells him that for his punishment he has a choice: he can either serve five years hard time, or take a challenge, and if he succeeds in the challenge he will be released. The challenge is this: there are three doors. Behind the first door is a 24 of beer which he has to drink in 30 minutes. Behind the second door is a Rotweiler with an abscessed tooth; he has to remove the tooth. Behind the third door is an insatiable Amazon and he has to satisfy her.
The man thinks for a minute and decides to take the challenge.
He goes in the first room. Behind the closed door we hear the sound of bottle caps furiously popping. Twenty-eight minutes later, the man staggers out and is escorted to the second room. Behind the closed door we hear growling, then barking, then whimpering, then silence. Ten minues later the man emerges and says,
“So where’s the babe with the bad tooth?”

Cheers,

John

#106 GregW, Oakville on 05.05.12 at 11:58 am

Hi Garth, Information on GMO food, and might you be able to help by signing a petition.
What’s in your food, and baby food??

-GM Soy linked to health damage in pigs — a Danish Dossier. http://www.responsibletechnology.org/

-Stop Feeding Our Babies Genetically Engineered Infant Formula and Baby Food.
Sign petition at link below!
“Nearly all of our infant formula, including every one of the millions of bottles distributed free by the government, contains genetically engineered corn or soy, as well as milk from cows injected by bovine growth hormone.”
“The FDA doesn’t conduct or even require a single safety study on GMOs. They allow companies like Monsanto to do their own safety tests. Keep in mind that the FDA also assured us that Monsanto’s past products – DDT, PCBs and Agent Orange – were perfectly safe. This was before they were banned. Today, Monsanto can put GMOs into baby bottles, sippy cups, and breakfast cereal, without even telling the FDA or consumers.”
“Because of their less-developed immune systems, infants and young children are more sensitive to toxins found in GMOs.

And diseases linked to GMOs in animal-feeding studies are skyrocketing among America’s children. This can’t be a coincidence.”

“Again, diseases are skyrocketing among America’s children. Their disorders include the same ones identified in GMO animal feeding studies by the physicians group, the American Academy of Environmental Medicine.”

**Please sign petition,
Tell your friends. And email your MPs for what it might be worth.
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/444/869/792/

#107 Jane24 on 05.05.12 at 12:02 pm

Number 86

Sorry but Canadian construction is rubbish, all plastics and pressboard how can you say it is superior to international standards.

.My home in England is 110 years old and my home in Italy is 550 years old, both solid stone and brick construction and both standing there with no problems.

All this current Canadian house construction dross will be in trouble in 50 years max.

#108 GregW, Oakville on 05.05.12 at 12:21 pm

Hi Nastra, You might find this interesting, with video.
(Now if we humans could just all get along?)
“It is well known that dolphins are the most intelligent animals in the ocean. But no one may know that more than a group of fishermen in Laguna, Brazil. For many decades, they have been the beneficiary of a unique animal-human interaction. A small group of bottlenose dolphins herd mullet fish into a shallow lagoon, then signal to the waiting fisherman, with a head or tail slap of the water, that the fish are close enough for nets to be cast… http://www.cbc.ca/quirks/

#109 Jonno on 05.05.12 at 12:26 pm

#10. I live in van and having lived in to and Montreal I totally Agree Montreal would be my choice over TO anytime!

#110 Not 1st on 05.05.12 at 1:06 pm

#108 Jane24 on 05.05.12 at 12:02 pm

Maybe try pricing out a home made out of stone these days, just for the shock factor. Your homes were made hundreds of years ago when these materials were practically free.

And I would also point out, there are plenty of wood homes from 100 years ago still standing in canada, in cities and on farms and they have seen harsher conditions that you europeans can even imagine. Will the new homes make it that long? Probably not.

#111 coastal on 05.05.12 at 1:08 pm

The recent blog activity on all the blogs I read shows a high level of homeowners and real estate agents desperately trying to over-pump the over-used lines of why “such and such” a city will never go down and anyone who says otherwise has sh*t for brains, we’ll flat line at worse, etc etc. Sorry losers, or soon-to-be major losers, this game is so over and the rosy glasses are showing major crack lines from too much sunshine up the posterior.

Living the renter life with a million dollar view for $1150 a month, and free plumbers too, thanks ! Did I mention the pool and hot tub too ?

#112 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.05.12 at 1:13 pm

@ #103 Nicole
Check out this lady’s situation:
she’s 47 with a falling income and about 95% of her net worth is equity in 2 real estate properties…both in Toronto…and she wants to by a third property…so she can retire early…

It’s actually 140% of her net worth. $1.4M in 2 houses, and only $1M of net worth ($400k in mortgage debt).

This is the epitome of “putting all of your eggs in one basket”.

#113 Tony on 05.05.12 at 1:16 pm

Re: #6 ANONYMOUS on 05.04.12 at 8:51 pm

So is America, i hate to think what will happen just after the election this November when they tell the public we’re slipping into a depression that could last decades. The truth will come out soon about American lies.

#114 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.05.12 at 1:22 pm

I’m trying to look at the MLS and it seems broken, nothing is showing anywhere!

All sold out! I guess there was a housing shortage after all.

#115 Mark W on 05.05.12 at 1:28 pm

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/359364–layoff-notices-handed-to-227-teachers

This is an interesting story of demographics.

The Greater Vancouver area is growing but interestingly enough the city of Vancouver has stagnated under it’s own unaffordability.

The average price of the house in Vancouver is over one million dollars who the hell lives here anymore.

Hence, far fewer children, and the rich immigrants who have ripped the guts out of the middle class of this city don’t have kids in grade school.

The suburbs are growing big time but the city of Vancouver has become a theme park for the rich.

Greater Vancouver is becoming a big donut city, and the hole in the middle is Vancouver.

If you are a teacher you would apply for a job out in the suburbs not in the theme park of Vancouver.

#116 J.F. on 05.05.12 at 1:32 pm

When I try to preach to others that activity has declined significantly, they argue that prices are historically high. The sale prices show that certain pockets have indeed increased. It is very fustrating for me to try and explain that unsold inventory will inevitably push prices down. All they see is that the latest sales prove there are still willing buyers who will pay into the lottery pension of the locals. The masses are still hopeful of the retire-through-the-sale-of-your-home programme. Or, the Chinese are investing worldwide and a lot of their money will be coming to Canada straight into our RE pockets. People still don’t get it.

#117 Spiltbongwater on 05.05.12 at 1:38 pm

Is squash really an expensive sport?

#118 McLovin on 05.05.12 at 1:43 pm

Jane24 #108 –

Solid stone you say? Wonder how much per square foot that would cost for a SFH in Canada?

The Coliseum is still standing and its 2,000 years old.

That was a ridiculous comment.

#119 brainsail on 05.05.12 at 1:57 pm

DA

How many Canadian builders construct homes that exceed minimum building code requirements?

There are no conventional mortgages in Canada. The rates are not fixed for the entire term.

#120 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 2:01 pm

#101eaglebay – Parksville on 05.05.12 at 11:08 am
#87 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 9:56 am

Love is blind.

I have 20/20 vision. And trust me – she’s HOT.

#108Jane24 on 05.05.12 at 12:02 pm
Number 86

Sorry but Canadian construction is rubbish, all plastics and pressboard how can you say it is superior to international standards.

.My home in England is 110 years old and my home in Italy is 550 years old, both solid stone and brick construction and both standing there with no problems.

All this current Canadian house construction dross will be in trouble in 50 years max.

I said by “current international construction standards” .

Solid stone and brick structures are difficult to heat.

Most of the building materials used today are superior for their intended purpose. Homes are far more energy efficient. Stone and brick are indeed long lasting and beautiful to look at but not really a practical building product nor are they particularly affordable.

It’s not the improvements upon the land but the land itself which is of value. The dwelling built on the land is intended to be a comfortable climate controlled shelter. But I’m sure your castle and villa are comfortable too.

#121 jess on 05.05.12 at 2:10 pm

.. if there are no more greater fools are left does this blog rename itself to so “long sucker game?”

So Long Sucker is a board game invented in 1950 by John Nash It is a four-person bargaining/economic strategy game. Each player begins the game with 7 chips, and in the course of play, attempts to acquire all the other players’ chips. This requires making agreements with the other players which are ultimately unenforceable. To win, players must eventually renege on such agreements. The game takes approximately 20 minutes to play (wiki)

====

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/So_Long_Sucker
Curtis describes how, in order to meet artificially inflated targets:
In industry and the public services, this way of thinking led to a plethora of targets, quotas, and plans. It was meant to set workers free to achieve these targets in any way they chose. What these game-theory schemes did not predict was that the players, faced with impossible demands, would cheat.
Lothian and Borders Police reclassified dozens of criminal offences as “suspicious occurrences”, in order to keep them out of crime figures;
Some NHS hospital trusts created an unofficial post of “The Hello Nurse,”[6] whose sole task it was to greet new arrivals in order to claim for statistical purposes that the patient had been “seen,” even though no treatment or even examination had occurred during the encounter;
NHS managers took the wheels off trolleys and reclassified them as beds, while simultaneously reclassifying corridors as wards, in order to falsify Accident & Emergency waiting times statistics.

#122 John on 05.05.12 at 2:30 pm

TRT wrote:

“3) Get used to the coming 3 class system: poor class (beggars), working class (live paycheque to paycheque), non-working class (who own all the assets and set the rules).

Oh, number 3…., its been like that in India and China for centuries. We were a blip to the norm for the last century or so. Back to reality.”
—————————-

Yeah, really strong point. A bit too pessimistic though. In harder times, a childish population that believed in digital “money” and net “worth” will have opportunties to build both self esteem and communities.

The “reality” thing is faster because of the future lack of access from your i-phone to the CIBC “dancing electrons” on the screen. By that time, apologies won’t be relevant.

To use cynical “CNN-speak”, we could ask, “how did we get here?” ( ya gotta love the shameless Syria content).

But seriously…once again..is the fantastic BBC documentary “The Century of the Self” ( you mentioned a 100 year blip…here’s the report below on that). It came out in 2002, just as the derivatives fraud was being massively deployed world-wide. This fraud is the “equity” in Canadian “homes”.

This surely would not be produced today…most people were unaware of how high the Goldman Sachs et al Network would take things.

Really high-end work here. It’s much easier to understand what’s going on in Canada with this information.

The Century of the Self:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhxfArTAcfM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

#123 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 2:35 pm

I am a most fortunate man. };-)

#124 };-) aka DA on 05.05.12 at 2:37 pm

21 Suggestions for Success

By H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
1.Marry the right person. This one decision will determine 90% of your happiness or misery.
2.Work at something you enjoy and that’s worthy of your time and talent.
3.Give people more than they expect and do it cheerfully.
4.Become the most positive and enthusiastic person you know.
5.Be forgiving of yourself and others.
6.Be generous.
7.Have a grateful heart.
8.Persistence, persistence, persistence.
9.Discipline yourself to save money on even the most modest salary.
10.Treat everyone you meet like you want to be treated.
11.Commit yourself to constant improvement.
12.Commit yourself to quality.
13.Understand that happiness is not based on possessions, power or prestige, but on relationships with people you love and respect.
14.Be loyal.
15.Be honest.
16.Be a self-starter.
17.Be decisive even if it means you’ll sometimes be wrong.
18.Stop blaming others. Take responsibility for every area of your life.
19.Be bold and courageous. When you look back on your life, you’ll regret the things you didn’t do more than the ones you did.
20.Take good care of those you love.
21.Don’t do anything that wouldn’t make your Mom proud.

H Jackson Brown

#125 vanbcguy on 05.05.12 at 2:53 pm

Re: #62: In Van older construction houses use a shared pipe leaving the house to the sewer. The ‘root’ of the problem was tree roots in the perimeter drains that had gotten in to the sewer line as well.

#126 naga on 05.05.12 at 3:04 pm

Garth have you ever looked into Switzerland RE situation?

Apparently while there are a lot of renters – those that do buy can get mortgages that run for multiple generations!

So it looks like Switzerland is different….

#127 PoorgEoisie on 05.05.12 at 3:28 pm

Barrington, Via rail just had a post for 2 locomotive engineers in the lovely town of Hornepayne (no bubble there). I checked and the post was taken down but I don’t think they received any bids, in fact they are talking about forcing some guys there. A foot in the door there would be good as you would then be able to bid jobs from coast to coast and half the engineers are due to retire in the next 5-10 years.
If you wanted to go the freight route you’ll have to start as conductor and go back to dangling off box cars (and it gets cold think -40c) but the major carriers CN and CP are always looking for people all over the country. The north and the east coast (my fav) are the cheaper places to live. The first couple of years are on call (2hrs notice, entitled to 8hrs undisturbed rest between shifts), holidays are just a bigger pay days(I’ve had a few christmas’ on the engine), 2 weeks vacation for the first 5 with an extra week every few years after that.
The good parts:
Freight conductor 70-90k(with a likely layoff and call back in the first few years)
Freight engineer 80-150k depending on over time
Passenger engineer 110k guaranteed and overtime is always available (one of my colleagues broke 200 last year, but at that point I think you have to love trains and hate your family).

By all means have a look, I’m starting to get sick of it though, lost a couple of buddies recently and it makes you wonder what it’s all about… I thought I had hit the jackpot coming to Toronto “6 figures! Time to start looking for a house in Toronto!”. I ended up at greaterfool.ca shortly thereafter

#128 Don on 05.05.12 at 3:35 pm

#99 eaglebay – Parksville on 05.05.12 at 10:59 am

#72 dd on 05.05.12 at 3:32 am
“The US is in recovery “unemployment rate fell.” Think again.

Predicted job growth 175k and actual 115K. 340k people left the labour force – that is why there is an improvement in UE numbers. So actually the stats are getting worse.”
_________________
10,000 boomers retiring in the USA everyday.
More jobs available in the near future.
Watch and learn. Duh…
*******************

‘Cuts through attrition’, I guess you have never heard of that.

#129 Don on 05.05.12 at 3:58 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/05/04/toronto-vancouver-housing.html#socialcomments

Had to shut off the video, couldn’t watch the young couple any longer, even though they were being somewhat sensible the most sensible would be to do some research on the topic of real estate, throw in some bubble analysis, expand the line of reasoning to include a global perspective, bring the analysis into the present and then we can talk about risk and mitigation.
Why can’t the young couple wait. Too impatience, peer pressure, pressure from relatives, pressure from what exactly?

Vancouver is cooling – what’s next cold?
Vancouver boasts a higher average house price.

Toronto is warming/hot!
And has a slightly lower average house prices when compared to Vancouver.

Just like East / West competition.
Vancouver was first, first, first on all accounts
But Toronto will show them all – “how to go out with a bigger bang”

The article goes on to explain that April 2012 marked the lowest sales comparable to 2001, when the boom was in it’s beginnings. Where are we now…it’s not rocket science. Human nature does not evolve at the same pace as new advancements in technology. It takes a lot of energy to reach such heights, but we require less on the way done.

POP GOES THE BUBBLE – Spring 2012

Nothing else to do now….but go outside and play.

#130 T.C. on 05.05.12 at 4:25 pm

Rent vs. Own: A Little Story.

A couple of years ago just before Christmas I heard running water in the pipes – a constant flow that went on day and night. I called the landlord and told him – “hey, the water is running day and night.”

He checked over the house (four rental units) and declared everything was just fine.

But I kept hearing running water in the pipes and kept telling him about it. He figured everything was fine.

Fast forward to May and I came home from work one day to find a back hoe in the front yard and huge 4 foot deep trench running from the house to the street. The landlord and some other guy were frantically clearing away the last of the water line with a couple of spades. My landlord stopped to lift the manhole cover in the sidewalk and showed me the gauge that metered the water line to the house. The needle was spinning like a top.

My landlord had received the quarterly water bill that day. He owed city hall $12,000 for water.

That is about two years rent for me.

They had the problem fixed by the time I got back from the pub.

I think it is less about feeling superior and more about planning to avoid sh*t you don’t need in your life. It seems to me that a lot of people are much more willing to work themselves ragged for the illusion of wealth and happiness than they are at working for the achievement of wealth and happiness. This results in a lot of wasted time, money and effort.

That and not listening to your tenants.

Or the pipes.

#131 J.I.M. on 05.05.12 at 4:26 pm

If and when Canada’s real estate bubble burtsts, is this what we can expect?

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1172481–the-ghost-houses-of-ireland-foreclosure-and-eviction?bn=1

Don’t kid your self, Its different here in Canada then the US. Any political party that allows the kind of foreclosures we can expect if the bubble bursts, will be committing political suicide; right former MP Garth. That’s why I think we won’t have a US style collapse. I think the the real estate market will sit there and stagnate,

#132 John Prine on 05.05.12 at 4:45 pm

Dumb Questions on 05.04.12 at 8:54 pm
There is a new condo development in North Vancouver that promises to buy your unit back from you if you dont like it once it is built. Is this for real?
___________________________________________

That is the “Atrium” on Victory Ship Way and the sign is up saying just that . They have two towers up that have been for sale and inhabited for 12 and 18 months now and they are like ghost buildings, the newer one with 86 units has only sold about 20 of them, at night the building is dark.

They are planning three more buildings in front of the current two, right next to the shipyard that has sandblasting, painting etc…going two shifts now and the company has been awarded an 8 billion contract with the federal government…….Last place anybody sane would want to live, ocean view or not.

#133 truth hammer on 05.05.12 at 5:30 pm

#63 TO BB…..I wouldn’t touch that newspaper analyst with an evaluation….it assumes her property is worth a million now and will continue to hold up in bubble territory….he should be telling her to sell immediatley and rescue some of the equity she has…after all she has no cash savings ….and insufficient cash flow to pay the upkeep & taxes on two properties……thats tha big point the article glosses over….the fact that she has zero income after debt service. The property values can go down 50% or more but her property taxes will not…after all the mill rate is determined by the amount it takes to support all those greedy civil servants wages and monstrous pensions…..she’s screwed and seeking advice from a fool.

#134 Foggy on 05.05.12 at 5:30 pm

No granite, no stainless. In fact unchanged since the 1930’s – here’s an interesting house for sale in Montreal. Priced in the 700M’s.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/top-picks/tough-sell/#clip672917

#135 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.05.12 at 5:51 pm

#107 GregW, Oakville on 05.05.12 at 11:58 am
“Hi Garth, Information on GMO food, and might you be able to help by signing a petition.
What’s in your food, and baby food??”
_______________
GMOs are modified at the cell level and nothing to do with chemicals. I eat hem everyday and do enjoy my food.
Your petition is a hoax full of holes.

#136 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.05.12 at 5:54 pm

#108 Jane24 on 05.05.12 at 12:02 pm
Number 86

“Sorry but Canadian construction is rubbish, all plastics and pressboard how can you say it is superior to international standards.”
_______________
Houses around the world are built with Canadian materials.
The ones that you mentioned are the exception.
Old Quebec City has houses and buildings that are 400 years old. So what.

#137 TurnerNation on 05.05.12 at 6:11 pm

Breaking…Toronto realtor admits it: New condos will not rent for positive cash flow!!!

(Worried realtors, realtors in a panic?)

http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/blog/aprilmay-market-report-2012-4/

***”For investors, there is no problem in leasing your unit. The issue is that rental rates do not support current prices and because of this, we would expect to see a drop in new investors because they cannot cover their interest and operating costs”***

#138 TurnerNation on 05.05.12 at 6:12 pm

Attn. new blog dogs. The following usernames are still available:

Hair in Awful Places
Smoking Manchurian candidate
Esatz emoter
Glandular Guy
Shirley Cooter
O Bubbleheads
Track 6er
Never used yellow highlighters
Beach West girl
Batman ears

Reserved: Blog Dog Carney

#139 The Thing in the Basement on 05.05.12 at 6:26 pm

126 vanbcguy – thanks.

#140 canadian housing market set to crash on 05.05.12 at 6:38 pm

Turner nation #135 there is no property(house) or new condo in all of Vancouver or Toronto that is cash flow positive even with record low interest rates. The condo bubble/ponzi is one of the biggest in the world backed by CHMC. No bank in Canada would lend a penny to buy these condos without CHMC backing the loan. When the condo ponzi crashes tens if thousands will go bankrupt and walk. This is 100% fact.

#141 Anon on 05.05.12 at 6:43 pm

“zombie separatist wingnuts” will be a Canadian feature very soon. Wait until the inter-provincial blame game starts…

#142 TurnerNation on 05.05.12 at 6:56 pm

Ahem. Was this posted? Disclosure: still long ZSL.US (short silver ETF) slightly hedged with front month covered calls for income.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47298734

Warren Buffett’s right-hand man doesn’t like gold any more than his boss does, Charles Munger told CNBC Friday on the eve of Berkshire Hathway’s annual meeting.

“Gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you’re a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939,” the Berkshire vice chairman said, “but I think civilized people don’t buy gold, they invest in productive businesses.”

#143 Paul on 05.05.12 at 7:36 pm

#115 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.05.12 at 1:22 pm
I’m trying to look at the MLS and it seems broken, nothing is showing anywhere!

All sold out! I guess there was a housing shortage after all.

They ran out of red dots!

#144 i'm stupid on 05.05.12 at 7:36 pm

wtf $16 million for a home that is not completed. Someone is going to lose a bundle.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11358193&PidKey=-590282232

#145 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.05.12 at 7:46 pm


#106 John G. Young — G’day John. Excellent joke!

Re: Lunch at The 19th Hole — 4:10 clip Would you like fries with that?!

#109 GregW, Oakville — “(Now if we humans could just all get along?” — Hi Greg. thanks for the excellent link.

All humans get along? Surely you jest! It would be a thoroughly boring world if everyone agreed with everyone else. Gotta be able to think critically for myself — not gonna let anyone else make my choices for me!
*
82 mln. “Now, pay attention class; the US has admitted there are 82 million “invisible” unemployed in the US (only they did not stay invisible as the government hoped because the alternative media kept pointing them out). The US government admits to there being 12.5 million “visible” unemployed, which together with the invisible means 94.5 million Americans are available to work but do not have a job.” wrh.com; Overpopulation Crisis? No such thing, Redistribution of assets, yes but not gonna happen; 13:10 clip Some call it a recession, others a depression; California Now if they simply legalize it; 9:15 clip GM becoming China Motors.
*
3:14 clip Romney vs. Paul rallies; Military Coup? It would shake things up; 7:48 clip An IP address is not a person; Obomba and CISPA Would you buy a used car from this guy? Plus Bullshit; NAU – Globalism or Happy Cinco de Mayo dayo; Pentagon “The same Pentagon that is still fighting inside Iraq, will still be fighting inside Afghanistan in 2024, now promises they will successfully invade and conquer Iran in just three weeks. And if you believe that one, I have some of Saddam’s nuclear weapons to sell you!” wrh.com, and Iran Correct; Android malware; US Spy Operation Good reason to avoid FB, Twitter etc.; Immunity Malaria parasites, and and E.coli.

#146 Freedom First on 05.05.12 at 7:55 pm

#131 T.C.

Thanks for your post:) ……..really enjoyed it. Your landlord is a knucklehead……I had a similar experience once, but my experience as a previous homeowner saved him several thousand dollars (he said:), even though he didn’t listen to me, by luck, when TSHTF, he was very lucky, as I was home when it happened, and prevented major damage.

Moral of the story: “Renters are like Rodney Dangerfield was: “We don’t get no respect”. Funny, the assumptions people make about you when you rent. Almost as funny as thinking all “Home Owners” are rich:)

#147 Form Man on 05.05.12 at 8:05 pm

DA, eaglebay, and others

This is my response to the comments regarding quality of Canadian houses.
As a general statement Canadian houses are better built now than ever, and our building code is a world leader. Having said that I do need to qualify the statement. In this case I am referring to ‘North American woodframe construction’ . It is important to compare apples with apples. In the case of building materials there are vast differences in quality and performance. A European home built of bricks will obviously withstand termites and fire much better than one built with wood. In the case of an earthquake however, the brick home will crumble into a pile of rubble, while the woodframe house stands. Likewise with energy efficiency. Anyone who has paid to heat a ‘lovely old stone farmhouse’ quickly appreciates modern insulated woodframe houses. So, one must keep in mind what is important to that particular homeowner.
With respect to sheathing, I personally have no problem with waferboard ( OSB ) used as wall and roof sheathing ( under good quality siding and roofing materials…… vinyl siding is junk, and should be banned ). In the homes I build I use 3/4″ douglas fir plywood for my subfloor. This is an example of a builder substituting a better material than code minimum.

#148 Freedom First on 05.05.12 at 8:07 pm

#125 &*^%DA

Sunshine up the _ _ _ post.

Nothing about setting your boundaries when it comes to dealing with disrespectful a_ _ holes. Welcome to the real world:) …….p.s. watch out: especially for realtors, [email protected], and politicians:)

#149 Archer on 05.05.12 at 8:15 pm

There are 8 new listings on my street in the last two days
in North Toronto on Banbury. I think the bank bailout spooked a few people who were told by our government that our banking system in Canada is not like the U.S. We are going the same route as the States thats why our government hid it to avoid a collapse

#150 canadian housing market set to crash on 05.05.12 at 8:35 pm

What some rookie realtors and mortgage brokers who post all day and night trying to give every stupid reason why Canada won’t crash like the house of cards. CHMC was the ONLY reasons why prices are what they are today. In 2008 CHMC hit its limit and banks stopped lending since no CHMC backing loans and RE WAS crashing. The same thing will happen again since CHMC limit will not be Increased = crash. Sorry

#151 Mr Buyer on 05.05.12 at 9:05 pm

#136 eaglebay – Parksville on 05.05.12 at 5:51 pm
#107 GregW, Oakville on 05.05.12 at 11:58 am
“Hi Garth, Information on GMO food, and might you be able to help by signing a petition.
What’s in your food, and baby food??”
_______________
GMOs are modified at the cell level and nothing to do with chemicals. I eat hem everyday and do enjoy my food.
Your petition is a hoax full of holes
…………………………………………………………………….
Here is another example of incomplete investigation and development being foisted upon the public because actuarial considerations from an economic (read profiteering) perspective. There is incomplete evidence that BT Corn has negative effects upon higher organisms that consume the corn. Business has gotten away with it from the dawn of time. Implement an innovation for pure profit ignoring its negative impacts and more importantly how to attenuate these impacts. There are tons of investigators and a huge array of techniques that could be employed to develop a very clear understanding and methodology in employing this technology (from impacts upon consumers to DNA pollution) but no we have some financial types dictating scientific protocol once again. As for the dismissive nature of the response to concern, it is baseless in scientific fact, protein dosage alone can have horrendous effect upon organisms never mind novel proteins being introduced into a system. While our digestive tracts decompose most proteins into their amino acids, the cells of the digestive tracts have to contend with these altered protein profiles.For gods sake lets get these financial types away from the helm and put scientists in charge. I would take Spock over Warren Buffet any day of the week.

#152 dd on 05.05.12 at 9:11 pm

The US recovery …

115k new jobs, only 14k manufacturing jobs produced last month. The US gov is spending more money to get out of this “recession” but actually getting nothing in return.

There is no US recovery.

Of course there is. Your gold says so. — Garth

#153 Danny DeVeto on 05.05.12 at 9:23 pm

Will RIM be ok?

#154 daystar on 05.05.12 at 9:25 pm

From yesterday:

#180 John on 05.04.12 at 8:02 pm Daystar wrote:

“The question I have for you is…are you actually prepared to look at that darker side? It doesn’t sound like it. You still refer to Harper, F and Carney as actors in the Canadian real estate bubble. Where’s your research? These people are barely involved.” – John

Thanks for the compliment. My thoughts are that Harper alone is likely the most powerful man in Canada right now, potentially even more powerful than the Thompsons (apart from timelines, PM’s will come and go but the Thompsons will remain):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Woodbridge_Company

To say that Harper is barely involved in say, the run up of housing… not to mention his choice and support of F as finance minister who directly controls CMHC regulations is something I just can’t agree with. Why do you suppose people like John Tory worked so hard to try becoming an Ontario premier for example, if such positions of power had little to no relevance? Same goes for the former (and not so former) corporate lobbyist Stephen Harper.

At the end of the day, corporate will has to get past the laws of the day and the governments who govern behind, amend and introduce these laws. Who governs and makes the choices within the political boundaries set and who are politicians supposed to ultimately serve as opposed to practice? Are you prepared to look at the darker side of it yourself? It does take objectivity.

From where I objectively sit, the Harper government represents corporate/private interests above all else and some of these interests are not domestic. Its clearly seen with their policies on the environment and most definitely anything to do with economics and governance. Some might argue that the government should serve corporations first above all else, y’know, “jobs, jobs, jobs” and other mantra’s conditioning mindsets. I’m not one of them.

“Carney is even someone you mention as giving good advice ( re: commodities). Carney doesn’t give advice. It’s not relevant. He’s just implementing the bigger picture. Are you prepared to ask the tougher questions about that?”

My comments concerning Mark Carney’s advice on commodities and emerging markets come from Mark’s recent comments here:

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE83G0RJ20120501

… and the answers are easy concerning advice and guidance. Quite simply, its in a central bankers job description to do so. Mark Carney is someone who has to explain risk first and foremost to justify the decisions being made in monetary policy. I don’t believe its in the job description of a central banker to criticize fiscal policy for reasons already past stated but Mark has every need if not right to explain and justify policy decisions regarding risk and I also believe its in Mark Carney’s job description to advise all borrowers of what also lies ahead in terms of opportunity as risk is negated somewhat through opportunities that are taken when they come. In all seriousness, put yourself in the shoes of a central banker… any central banker and given enough time and experience, objectively, one would be better able to appreciate or criticize choices concerning Mark’s job performance from there.

“Carney is a good place to start. Follow the trail. There is some really bad stuff out there from “classic doomers” like Alex Jones, Celente, Schiff and his “Europacific Capital” sales pitch, gold pumpers, anarchists, fear-mongers and all the rest. But they can lead to some data for one to make their owm decisions. Never before in history has such amazing information been available. Ever. – John

They add to mainstream points of view but even so they too, like mainstream points of view, act upon their own self interests. Everyone has an angle John including us. Hopefully the angle that we choose when it really counts is what’s best for us all.

“And you’re talking about….Mark Carney? Who is he?” – John

I’ll keep the rest short (ok, thats not possible for me :) and simply say that outside of being a GS man, he was also born and raised in the NWT and grew up in Edmonton. He’s one of us. Canadians seem to have this, how to I put it… ideal that true Canadians have to take their education and experience from here. I just want the education and experience from Canadians in positions of power to have a good education and qualifications regardless of where it comes from, here or abroad and in Mark’s case it could well be the best.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/05/23/f-mark-carney.html

Maybe some have an envy, others a reasoned suspicion when it comes to anyone who worked at Goldman Sachs and certainly the way U.S. housing unwinded with Lehman brothers and AIG and derivatives, its not hard to understand where the angst is coming from.

In the same breath… regulations specifically with derivatives or the mere existence of them… is again, a matter of fiscal policy, not monetary (although monetary policy should provide an excellent resource to draw from, especially from Mark if politicians were at all serious with true reform). If we don’t like derivatives in any or all of their various forms, its up to our elected government to change the system.

As for a Canadian’s central banker education, Harvard and Oxford are much more preferable for me quite frankly than say… where Harper went. Goldman Sachs…. thats a duel edged sword without question but what are we suppose to extrapolate out of that, Mark’s a GS guy and since he also went to Harvard and Oxford, these institutions are corrupt and suck?” Really?

If there’s a banker around that knows how the system works internationally, its likely Mark and I assume to know what you are thinking, “did Mark Carney ever give up his old job”?

A very valid question…

Of which I have three answers for you. The first is that the BoC sets inflation targets at 2%, a mandate set by Carney’s predecessor, David Dodge. I haven’t seen the BoC deviate from this target yet but if you’ve been following recent media concerning Mark, he’s strongly suggested that rate hikes are coming soon. The BoC tries to stay 6 to 8 quarterlies ahead, so…

I think you could make a case for the governor of the BoC reducing inflation targets below 2% but that case was one to present years ago when the loonie was much lower than it is now, perhaps as early as 2002. From my perspective, inflation targets could have been lower than 2% as a currency rises in contrast to your greatest trading partners but again to what degree does it rise and why and when it comes to bubbles like housing and to some degree credit, fiscal policies through CMHC and OSFI would have been much more appropriate to handle these issues than monetary, the reason I assume its worth talking about on greater fool. One still has to factor in what the impacts of higher rates have to do with pushing our currency higher. Its easy to raise rates when your currency is at .62 to .90 cents but not so easy with a loonie at or above par.

The second is that ultimately F could sack Mark Carney at any time if they don’t like the policy/PR coming from the governor of the BoC. Who is most responsible ultimately? Once again, the Prime Minister. And who is the most responsible for consumer, public and even to some degrees corporate debt levels in this country? The Prime minister and his #2, the finance minister. Its all regulated through our elected government/fiscal policy having much greater impact than rates from the BoC.

Thirdly, success breeds success. Investment banks like GS in general have the same mindset as investors like myself. We want to invest in area’s that offer the quickest return for the least risk. Its not done by biting the hand that feeds you. Thats not to say that GS won’t exploit failure through shorts because they will and the corporation ultimately has to cover shorts and enough shorts if realized can put them out of business but engineering failure outright isn’t the goal because it shrinks the pie or dilutes the value of the pie that ultimately one wants greater market share of. You don’t engineer failure but you do react to it. In GS’s case their shorts in some cases were large enough and profited enough on shorts that a case could be made against them… and it was. Again though, it still comes back to policy makers… why weren’t shorts banned sooner? Why were banks that weren’t in trouble given money? There were no doubt, shady decisions made by U.S. feds… the greasy kind.

Getting back to the plays on emerging markets and commodities, the loonie hardly favors manufacturing and credit is maxing out on consumer driven spending driving bubbles to systemic crash potential so where do you go? Commodities. Emerging markets. Where else, especially when one considers currency changes going forward? We are a commodity driven export nation. We can’t continue to invest in bubbles and emerging markets offer not only double digit growth in key sectors but they offer strengthening currencies going forward so its a win win.

Finally, I think the question you should be asking John, and the rest who read and blog here is… “why does Blog Dog Carney” read and comment on Garth’s site? Two quick answers come to me real fast. The first is that Garth Turner’s talents as a writer and communications host speak for themselves on a daily basis. This blogs influences, although intangible, are recognized by those who have high degrees of intelligence and influence. Some of the comments here are also far from pathetic. Lets just say that… you can have the best directors, researchers and asssistants and support staff working for you but at the end of the day you as well as your support need to have your finger on the pulse of mood of the masses and thats found here in part with input from us blog dogs who toil away no doubt, serving the greater good! :)

Anyhow… got some pet projects to tend to, have a good weekend everyone :)

#155 The Thing in the Basement on 05.05.12 at 9:34 pm

148 Form man re vinyl siding. Just wanted to know what you find wrong with it. Is it something inherent or could it be better if they just used better vinyl? Chinese suppliers?

My builder said there was nothing wrong with vinyl (this
was 2002) but I opted for hardi-plank.

#156 Greg on 05.05.12 at 9:49 pm

I am an investor and one of the things I learned is trends last longer than anyone imagines. If you are thinking about buying a home now, it may be a bad idea as this is a high risk entry point but if you own a home, dont cap your gushing oilwell while it is still gushing. Nobody knows how long it will gush for. Why take your few cans of oil and cap that well?

#157 Steven Rowlandson on 05.05.12 at 10:02 pm

Advice:
Don’t live west of Ontario.

http://enenews.com/nuclear-expert-studies-showing-cesium-all-down-west-coast-pine-needles-california-ground-vancouver-oregon-lot-biggest-concern-bioaccumulation-works-food-chain-audio

#158 furst on 05.05.12 at 10:05 pm

#55 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.05.12 at 12:32 am
If you are a purveyor of future visions, you will know that I’m the leader of this blog. All of you are my followers. FFUUUUURRST!!!

#159 Dan from Richmond Hill on 05.05.12 at 10:28 pm

About houses quality and confort in Canada versus Western Europe (Germany, Austria, Italy, French, etc.): in my opinion is better in Europe and no so expensive…fortunately this last problem will be solved soon, since there is no economical miracle here…

#160 Form Man on 05.05.12 at 10:34 pm

#156 the thing

Hardi plank was a very intelligent choice over vinyl. if your builder seriously thinks vinyl is fine, then it is time to find a new builder. Reflect for a moment on the job siding is expected to perform. It shields your home from the elements. These elements include solar radiation, which degrades plastic in a very short time. The longest lasting exterior claddings for a building would likely be in this order:

stone ( including glass )
brick
stucco
wood
cement board ( may last longer than wood, but has not been in use long enough to be sure )
vinyl

lastly, vinyl cannot be satisfactorily painted, it must be replaced, generally in less than 25 years. It looks nasty, is harmful to the environment, and given its short lifespan, extremely expensive in the long run.

(Garth will now remind me this is a housing market blog, not a building seminar )

Actually I like this. I know of one place (Lunenburg) which bans the stuff. — Garth

#161 John G. Young on 05.05.12 at 10:36 pm

#193 Westernman on 05.05.12 at 3:20 pm

DELETED

Looks like your last comment pushed the
Hate-O-Meter into the red zone — again.

You may want to dial it back a touch.

Just a suggestion.

#162 Gta fun on 05.05.12 at 11:10 pm

Just my opinion… For as long as I feel priced out… As a top One per center with a paid off house… Something is wrong with the market. It’s not just about buying a place and making those mortgage payments. It’s about property taxes etc. I see the last greater fools jumping in with both feet. I want to feel sorry for them, but I don’t. They can be ticked off with their realtor, banker, mortgage broker etc… Too bad. You can’t reason with stupid. I was talking to someone the other day who was saying that they want to sell their home because they can make some money on it. I asked what they thought they could do once they sell. Downsize buy versus rent. She says obviously they would buy a small place. They felt that even with a crash they were better off buying then renting, because they are more worried that there won’t be a crash and they will e priced out. Please note family members of their s are realtors. You just cannot reason with dumb at this point. So you just sm lie and say good luck :)

#163 Gta fun on 05.05.12 at 11:11 pm

Also the above referenced people are both currently out of work.

#164 AG Sage on 05.05.12 at 11:19 pm

The BiL is playing the game exactly as he has been incentivized to. There is no reason to half play this game. Run up the debt until the credit is cut off and go BK at the end of it. The BiL is the only Canadian profiled on this blog to actually learn something from the U.S. crash.

#165 Canadian Watchdog on 05.05.12 at 11:34 pm

Red Pin stats show 976 brand new condos available for sale in the GTA area, of which nearly 500 have been listed in the last 10 days as every assignor just got the ‘ok occupancy’ status to sell.

Red Pin New Condo LIstings http://i49.tinypic.com/2a8q9dx.png
Days On The Market Distribution http://i48.tinypic.com/2chtd74.png

Next, listings go parabolic come the end of spring’s peak season, and with 10,000 more condos scheduled by the end of 2012, marks the grand opening of the condo slaughter house madness.

#166 questions for John G Young on 05.05.12 at 11:44 pm

Do you contribute anything to this blog other than your nitpicking comments and snipes to other posters like Westernman etc?

Where did you come from? Why are you compelled to squabble and nitpick? Why do you think we care about your petty bickering?

Just wondering.

Have at it – I’m sure you will :)

#167 Boomer on 05.05.12 at 11:44 pm

Good heavens Daystar, start your own blog if you have to post a few thousand words! Very tiresome. Garth, can’t you put a limit on the number of words per post? Please?

#168 Dan in Victoria on 05.05.12 at 11:47 pm

Form Man @ 161
Ah yes the ongoing debate of construction practises and material selection.
Most of it boils down to minimum cost maximum profit in the spec house building racket.
Custom homes with a knowledgeble contractor and a customer who understands the additional costs to use better materials = better build.
I myself don’t like osb, down here on the coast a bit of water on the cut joints and it turns into a jet puffed marshmellow.
Common practise down here (not everyone) is to use resawn for the wall sheathing.(2×8 ripped in half) it breathes well and is relatively rigid if nailed properly.
I prefer the 2×10 ,2×12 floor joists not spanned to the max. 3/4 inch fir plywood would be a sturdy floor for sure.
As to vinyl siding, I built a few houses with it back in the 80’s If I remember right it was 2000 bucks for all the siding and soffits. Cheap. Would I use it on my house? NO.
Another little thing that annoys me is the use of 1/2 inch drwall on the ceilings, I like 5/8’s. Why? go look carefully at a ceiling with 1/2 inch on 24 inch centers it has a bow to it. Waves across the room. I know there is a proper 1/2 inch board for the ceilings but…. cost cutting…
Anyhow I’m glad I’m pretty much out of it now, just putter around doing small stuff now.
I’m going to build a new house here once all this excess gets flushed. Or maybe not…
Whats the word on this new building code I hear major changes coming for residental construction ?

#169 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.06.12 at 12:14 am


#159 furst — “If you are a purveyor of future visions . . .” — Future visions? Usually I can’t see past tomorrow morning!
*
John Mauldin on what’s left of the economy, and The Fiscal Cliff; Barron’s 500; Losing US$17 bln. between friends; Prepaid Cards; Car Dealerships and Collapse; Acquiring Buffett; RE if and maybe; Truth on Taxes; Pessimistic EZone.

One Chart Debt serfdom; Chinese Population Crash; Stealing Gold; America has Surrendered; 40% drop in French home prices; Shopping Malls no longer being built (at least in UK); Raising Disability Taxes? 6:26 clip Spain despises banxters, loves Ron Paul; Selling Out Just as foreigners are being allowed to have our stuff, so Cameron and his bunch of whacknuts are doing the same in the UK;
*
Does death exist? Only for one’s clay temples. The afterlife is simply beautiful, because life always continues; Evil The positive and negative forces must rise equally; Space Weather On a dark and stormy night; Turmeric Curing acne? Home remedies for Warts; Easter Island Hoax? See for yourself; New ISP FBI’s worst nightmare; Sringtime in England. 6:38 clip The pursuit of light; Cdn. Drones (links in); Debunking 2012; Bioweapons Guess; Odearyme Kickoff in a near-empty arena.

#170 Vangrrl on 05.06.12 at 12:27 am

John G Young- I had a chuckle at that too :)
And John at #79 was ranting again about gender depolarization, yadi yadi… guess it’s a fixation and the reason he had singled my comment out a couple weeks back.
Such characters on this site. Love it.

#171 LB on 05.06.12 at 12:40 am

What is the feasability of implementing 2 separate sets of interest rates to address the Canadian real estate market?

One to be applicable specifically to real estate financing and another set applicable to the rest of the economy.

Comments?

#172 WaterlooResident on 05.06.12 at 1:04 am

#79 John:

That’s why I avoid Canadian women as if they were the PLAGUE.

I don’t want my NUTS cut off !

#173 Debtfree on 05.06.12 at 1:09 am

@18mp there was a hot chick in yesterdays pic ? You should have Seen the one that was too big to fail. I’m so glad I didn’t save that one and I can’t find it again . You guys with boobyvision will never forget it will ya .
Thanks Garth .

#174 The Thing in the Basement on 05.06.12 at 1:41 am

161 – thanks form man. I did know vinyl cant be painted, but I do worry about my hardi-plank getting hit by say a golf ball or similar hard object.

In vinyl’s defence I see many houses with it that are 20+ years old now. I’ve seen red turn pink on the sunny side,
but the paler colours dont seem affected so much, and to the touch they still feel pliable. Oh but dont keep the BBQ
too close to it.

There were some low rise condos built along the water just south of Campbell River on VI in the late 80s/ early 90s. If you know that spot, it can get some nasty squalls
from the southeast – ie wind driven rain and salt spray.
Most of the buildings were originally stucco. A few years
later, they were replacing it with vinyl.

Hey we’re not too far off topic, people need to know this
stuff!

#175 Blacksheep on 05.06.12 at 3:18 am

Daystar #155,

“This blogs influences”

“serving the greater good”

“Everyone has an angle John including us”

“Hopefully the angle that we choose when it really counts
is what’s best for us all.”
—————————————-
I find your comments…interesting.

take care
Blacksheep

#176 P & T S on 05.06.12 at 3:56 am

Another major (but hidden) problem facing the West is quality of Manufactured Products vs. price (to the end-user). We’re seeing this in the Korean manufactured cars bought, say, a decade ago – one local GP owns a 12 year old Hyundai Sonata which has clocked up 350,000km without missing a beat – everything still works just fine, which is quite similar to the earlier Hondas that could regularly reach 500,000km, providing they were well cared for. Hyundai and Kia are offering amazing warranties (8 years, 175,000km for Kia) whilst the “western” Manufacturers – Ford, GM (Holden locally), Peugeot, Fiat are hard pressed to offer 3 years.

Why buy “Western” produce when you can buy “Far Eastern” with better quality, better support, and most importantly, lower purchase, insurance, and running costs?

If we were staying in Australia, we’d seriously consider buying a new Kia Carnival diesel – 7l / 100km “mixed use” mileage is really good, and the van’s really spacious (well being an 8-seater you’d expect that!). NOT exactly cheap, but a far better buy than the nearest “fashionable” equivalent – Toyota Tarago – which agiain only gets a 3 year warranty (and with the petrol engine you’ll be pressed to beat 11l / 100km!)

Just another area where high costs of labour (and often poor workmanship) in the West is giving the economic advantage to those in the East who actually have a pride in their product.

#177 Beach Girl on 05.06.12 at 5:51 am

OMG, just got up to let Miss Daisy out.

3 of us went to visit some unfortunate soul in Penetang jail, Saturday morning. The NCR (Not Criminally Responsible) Bi-ploar with Pychosis 1 (nice kid, really) and the cheerleader. We went for lunch after. My treat.

Now, that place is ultra depressing.

The worst part, I went to the washroom. There were 2 women there changing a baby who has no colon. Wears a bag. Was born a combined set of children and the one with the hole died. How sad is that. Imagine that.

No jokes tonight.

I do volunteer, and most of my friends do. But, it makes you wonder how people survive.

Ya, there is a lighter side, 2 new Hydro Men are moving in. They will help with the pool and yard maintenance. But, really, imagine dealing with that?

#178 TurnerNation on 05.06.12 at 8:11 am

Our forum host, on the trashy Howe St. radio show!

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/05/this-week-in-money-30/?

Podcast: Download (Duration: 47:06 — 32.3MB)
■Garth Turner – Real Estate numbers.
■Adrian Ash – Gold.
■Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock – F35.

#179 45north on 05.06.12 at 8:49 am

Form Man: The longest lasting exterior claddings for a building would likely be in this order:

you didn’t mention metal siding. I have metal siding, I think its aluminium, I’ve never seen a hint of rust.

My brother-in-law has siding made from white pine. It was quite a project, he felled the trees, sawed the rough boards and then took them to the planning mill in South River to finish them and add the tongue-in-groove. Then he painted both sides before he nailed the boards to his house.

#180 Form Man on 05.06.12 at 8:58 am

#169 Dan

Plywood is definitely superior to OSB, but few softwoods can stand much moisture ( western red cedar excepted ). As for lumber sheathing, it has poor shear strength, and is not acceptable for engineered buildings, but works ok as long as it is applied correctly ( not so good in earthquakes )

#175 The Thing

vinyl siding becomes brittle and mis-shapen with time ( try hitting old vinyl with a frisbee ), as well as discoloured. As you point out, barbecues placed too close have an unhappy result. Imagine a grass fire. Cement board will withstand a hit from a golf ball quite well. It is almost 1/2″ thick…….vinyl is less than 1/8″ thick………no comparison.

When considering exterior cladding, the local climate is important. British Columbia’s west coast is not ideal for stucco, but having repaired many leaky condos, neither is vinyl. The 2006 building code requires rain screen systems for cladding exteriors in Vancouver. Because of the neccessity for drainage and ventilation, wood or cement board siding installed correctly is likely the best for coastal climates ( especially cedar shingles ).
First Nations people on the coast clad their ‘longhouses’ with cedar shakes, achieving lifespans of decades if not centuries. By the early 1990’s Vancouver builders were cladding with stucco in a ‘southwest style’ that in some cases lasted less than 24 months, before everything was a rotten mouldy mess………amazing progress !

Turning to a climate like the Okanagan, cedar does not fare well in the dry heat. Here stucco is an ideal choice.

A good architect and builder will pay close attention to the local climate when choosing cladding materials. Natural materials ( including brick and stucco) that have stood the test of time are my favourites for both looks and performance.

Kudos to Lunenburg for showing class and intelligence !

#181 Ret on 05.06.12 at 9:17 am

An excellent article by Diane Francis about systemic tax fraud by foreigners flipping condos in Canada. The Australians have dealt with it.

The CRA and the Ontario Securities Commission dither. I guess we can’t offend foreign tax cheaters in Canada. It’s easier to squeeze the domestic tax slaves a little more.

If Canada actually enforced tax laws on condo re-assigners, off shore flippers and non-reporting landlords, the OAS probably could have stayed at 65 years of age IMHO.

http://opinion.financialpost.com/category/diane-francis/

#182 salonist on 05.06.12 at 9:30 am

was walking to the postal box, saw the delivery person there filling the boxes.he was subsituting for the regular delivery person.we started to chat,turns out he’s retired from the post office (67),collects a pension,has this daily canada post contract delivery route.i say great, life must be good, all this extra income and mortage is paid for.he chuckles, says he still has a $270,000.00 mortage, his 40 year old son and famiy moved in 3 years ago and live with him and his wife rent free.

#183 Ret on 05.06.12 at 9:31 am

Vinyl siding

How close can vinyl sided homes be built to meet fire code? Whole townhouse projects in Hamilton have had aluminum siding replaced with vinyl siding.

#184 GregW, Oakville on 05.06.12 at 9:39 am

Hi #146 Nastra, re: All humans get along? Surely you jest! It would be a thoroughly boring world if everyone agreed with everyone else.

Yes it would be boring if we all agreed. My concern is the way we are seemingly blinded by the beauty of or destructive killing weapons. Just because there are used against someone else, other human beings, does not mean you can simple ignor the fact they can easily be turned and used on your own family. Of course all for the benifit of someone elses larger profit magine, or simply to take what you want from “them”.
If “they” can do it to “them” you are not accually safe and may be next in line.

#185 Form Man on 05.06.12 at 9:59 am

#180 45 north

I did neglect metal, which while it is far superior to vinyl, has the unfortunate propensity for dents. Like vinyl, metal does not breathe well, so should be installed as a rain screen in coastal climates. There are 2 key points that need to be stressed with cladding:

1) durability

2) installation

Even the best materials will provide poor service if installed incorrectly. Generous roof overhangs and landscaping graded away from the foundation also play a major role in shielding a building from the elements.

#186 truth hammer on 05.06.12 at 10:04 am

I’d like to welcome back Conrad Black…without whom this countries media would still be 100% mired in leftist socialist propaganda. This country needs a diversity of opinions….not just the enforced ideology of the Federal Liberal Party as we have seen in the past.

#187 GregW, Oakville on 05.06.12 at 10:06 am

#136 eaglebay, I don’t think you really understand the point I am trying to get across about the GMO food we are being forced to eat.

Have you actually asked yourself, if GMO are real the next best thing, why the resistant’s to labeling them, so as an individual we can make our own informed choice? I guess you don’t have kids or grand kids? If you do, I assume you want them to be as healthy as possible?
And Why have Counties in Europe and else were band them?!

I urge you too listen to this talk, see link and scrawl down to feature video, by the author of the books ‘Seeds of Deception’ and ‘Genetic Roulette’. He is informed.

But if you are already sure you know all that you need to know about GMO food, that you are being forced to eat, don’t bother.
http://www.geneticroulette.com/

#188 TurnerNation on 05.06.12 at 10:09 am

Desperate Toronto condo landlords. They want $1800 (no parking) for this unit? I’ve seen inside the model suite (same layout) and it’s nice but not worth 1800.

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-apartments-condos-1-bedroom-den-Tridel-Reve-Condo-Gorgeous-1-Den-King-West-View-Immediate-W0QQAdIdZ376943188

#189 jess on 05.06.12 at 10:27 am

152 Mr Buyer on

but what about those scientitst who create viruses

#104 GregW, Oakville on

ROSENHAN EXPERIMENT – On being sane in insane places
In 1972 an American scientist named Dr David Rosenhan performed an extraordinary experiment that revolutionised the study of mental health. He proved that psychiatry, the science of the mind, couldn’t tell the difference between sanity and insanity

#190 Daisy Mae on 05.06.12 at 10:34 am

#163 GTA fun: “It’s about property taxes…”

***********************

‘Property taxes’ cover numerous services. Guess someone has to pay for these services — either up front as homeowners, or hidden as renters.

#191 Kaganovich on 05.06.12 at 10:36 am

Dan in Victoria, Form Man

I have been enjoying the discussion concerning building materials and I too feel that vinyl siding will be looked upon as an obvious construction blunder sooner than later. Most of the vinyl siding I tear off homes is so degraded from UV exposure it dusts when you rub your hand over it. Hardie plank and panel are the best choices available today based on its price and performance (The only problem I have encountered thus far is some differential fading of some caulking compared to the siding-boothbay blue on south exposed wall). If budgets allow, I will opt for 1/2″ plywood sheathing for walls and 5/8″ plywood sheathing for the roof deck. This way I don’t cringe when my 250 lb. roofers walk between the trusses popping H-clips up and out as they move around. Furthermore, these flimsy roof decks I see on most newly built houses will prove to be a pain when it comes time to replace these roofs. A poor and wavy roof deck make it hard to get the new roof materials to perform like they should. My only question (Form Man) is the claim that hardie plank is 1/2″ thick, since both the planks and panels I have used have always and only been 5/16″ or 3/8″, cedarmill and smooth. What products are 1/2″ thick? Let me know and perhaps I will change up some of the materials I use to build.

#192 maxx on 05.06.12 at 10:37 am

#131 T.C. on 05.05.12 at 4:25 pm

Excellent post.
Re: the illusion of wealth….when I bought my first house back in the ’80s, my mortgage interest was running at 11.5%. That lit a fire under my butt and I paid off the house in 4 years. That was and still is my vision of creating wealth. Run from debt like the plague. I too cannot comprehend the abyss of ignorance that exists today with respect to not understanding the value of money and pigging out on it.
Someone yesterday posted a comment in which s/he stated that we are currently in an interest rate dreamworld. Correct. But the irony is that it creates a long-term debt hell. It decimates a nations wealth and spending power and weakens it on a daily basis. TPTB are hoping beyond hope that they can keep treading water with all of this money printing and rock bottom interest rates…….until the economy regains traction. Won’t happen. Everyone, even the rich for the most part have lost trust, are afraid for the future and are more unsure than ever as to where their wealth and jobs will be tomorrow.
Many have dusted off their creativity and learned to cut back, reduce, reuse, recycle and repair….with little loss to quality of life. What a surprise! Try a second-hand or better yet charity shop (no tax), you’ll get the shock of a lifetime…amazing goods at insanely low prices. Time for a good head butt to austerity and inflation.

…and as for the landlord, I’d have warned him once. His problems are his own.

#193 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 10:45 am

#167 questions for John G Young on 05.05.12 at 11:44 pm

“Do you contribute anything to this blog other than your nitpicking comments and snipes to other posters like Westernman etc?”

Yes.

“Where did you come from?”

The same planet Klaatu came from.

“Why are you compelled to squabble and nitpick?”

I disagree with your description of my posts. I asssume you will say that’s just another example of my “squabbling and nitpicking”.

Why do you think we care about your petty bickering?

I don’t (although some on this blog seem to).
And I don’t care.

BTW great moniker! What are the other ones you use here — Penpal maybe?

Cheers,

John

#194 truth hammer on 05.06.12 at 10:46 am

More information regarding the risk of certain classes of preferred shares that should be clarified. In fact certain classes of these types of issues are quite risky if an unwary investor gets caught thinking that all preferreds are created equal….they are not…..if/when rates rise , some preferred issues will get slammed…..as much as 16% according to this article.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/portfolio-strategy/preferred-shares-how-to-navigate-rising-rates/article2423562/page1/

DIY = RIP. — Garth

#195 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 10:52 am

#171 Vangrrl on 05.06.12 at 12:27 am

Yes, I was going to respond to #79 but then I thought, what’s the use? Anyway I believe he’s in Chile (perfect place for him I’d say).

And check out #173.

These guys are quite the ladies’ men.

Cheers,

John

#196 Form Man on 05.06.12 at 10:54 am

#192 Kaganovich

Agree with all your points. I stand corrected on the thickness of hardi siding. It is approximately 3/8″. there is a hardi trim we use that is 7/16″. tongue and groove plywood for rood sheathing is far superior to OSB with H clips…..
Plywood is a better product than OSB in many ways, including producing less off-gassing from glue. For any salesman who claims OSB is as good or better than plywood…….suggest they try OSB for concrete forms……see how that works out for them…..

#197 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.06.12 at 10:57 am

#181 Form Man on 05.06.12 at 8:58 am
“Kudos to Lunenburg for showing class and intelligence !”

Your informative post is appreciated. Good common sense knowledge is always useful. Thanks.
Too bad that some silly government has to get involved and “legislate” common sense.

#198 truth hammer on 05.06.12 at 11:00 am

BTW Garth…you have often, quite voiferously argued against the idea that HAM has been driving pprices up and that all talk of the buyers foriegn status was ‘rascist’ intent. What do you have to say to Dianne Francis……and why aren’t these accusations front page news for our tax dept and the politicains that are responsible? Is it ‘reverse rascism’ or ‘political correctness’ that is driving the agenda not to ‘out’ the HAM dollars that are obviously abusing our markets?

http://opinion.financialpost.com/category/diane-francis/

I’m very surprised that the publishing of this piece has not generated any commentary among the very people who should be most concerned. As the article points out…the Australians recognized the problem and immediatley corrected it WITHOUT the countries social or economic underpinnings falling into an abyss…..so what’s wrong with the political mindset in Canada when the truth can not be told?

Xenophobia is working well in Greece and France. — Garth

#199 John on 05.06.12 at 11:00 am

Daystar wrote:

“At the end of the day, corporate will has to get past the laws of the day and the governments who govern behind, amend and introduce these laws.”
____________________

You covered a lot of points Daystar. You’re a titan on dynamics of the system, but not it’s shadow and drivers.

The bubble could not exist without derivatives fraud, and isn’t undone by representative government. Why? Because that is truly not operational…again…as the bubble shows.

The funny money is world-wide, untouched by “Harper”. Check Sao Paolo, Rio, Santiago…etc. Since 2008, the funny money ( derivatives) has driven property up 50-100%.

You’re talking about fake principles and “job descriptions”. If you want to see the shadow this time, go to “the golden rule”: He who has the gold, rules.

Your assumptions fall, one by one.. from the foundation. Without that? Your arguments are airtight.

Looking at the real dynamics today is a little bit like getting your tooth drilled without the ether. I think the reason for unexamined assumptions in an argument which involves all of us is denial.

Denial means to “not know”. The percieved consequences of knowing are so threatening to survival, they simply must be invisible.

You talked about Mark Carney’s “job description”…so you still think the system works? What you’re showing is denial of the dark side of this plain and simple. That’s the hard work EVERYONE has to plough through.

Central banker job descriptions? Huh? The government holding back or undoing derivatives? Representation in “Ottawa” ( ha ha…Ottawa).

Really?

#200 Form Man on 05.06.12 at 11:07 am

#184 Ret

They replaced metal with vinyl ? That was idiotic. As for fire codes and vinyl siding, that usually is up to local authorities, but generally if homes are closer than 3 meters apart, fire resistant claddings are required. There was a notable fire in Edmonton a few years ago where a large number of vinyl clad homes under construction in a new development burned, leading to more stringent codes in that jurisdiction.

#201 jess on 05.06.12 at 11:13 am

…”The US department of labour reported that the youngest of the baby boomers those born between 1957 and 1964 held large numbers of short duration jobs even as they approached middle age. Younger workers were likely to change jobs even more frequently. The departments study,which captured employment duration realities in the 1990’s and into 2007 found that among jobs begun by workers when they were 33 to 37 years old 42.8 % ended in less than one year, and more than 80%.6 ended in less than five years.
Changes in the labor market — fewer good jobs that are harder to obtain and provide less security if you do get one, making more necessary shifts in employment –underpin these trends, which are only intensified by the economic meltdown. When institutions are no longer loyal to their employees the smart thing is not to be loyal to an institution that may not be loyal to you.” (footnote 6 chapter 2,page 26) Shadow elite.

#202 Mr Buyer on 05.06.12 at 11:15 am

#190 jess on 05.06.12 at 10:27 am
152 Mr Buyer on

but what about those scientitst who create viruses
……………………………………………………………………….
I am not sure exactly what you mean by create viruses. The only way to even attempt to understand something is to study it and even use it. Canadian scientists have recently developed a virus that selects cancer cells and have engineered the virus to carry genes deleterious to cancer cells with stunning results in the first human trials (this only after even more stunning results in mouse trials). Molecular medicine holds great promise. Only recently have we begun to operate on the same level as the virus. If we were to take all the money lost to this bubble and dump it into basic cellular, molecular and microbiology research it would be money well spent with great promise and ground shifting impact upon medicine. Instead we have triage in place of detailed molecular medicine being practiced across our great nation. Armies of researchers would change the face of Canada and the world in relatively short order in a manner that would even eclipse the magnitude of damage armies of realtors and bankers have (now whether that magnitude is positive or negative is presently largely out of the hands of scientists)

#203 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.06.12 at 11:24 am

#188 GregW, Oakville on 05.06.12 at 10:06 am

I’m not forced to eat anything. My choice. GMO food is efficient, looks good and taste delicious.
My body has evolved over the millennium to adapt and survive. It is designed to acquire the necessary proteins, vitamins, calories and whatever else it needs from many sources. Think caveman.
Whatever isn’t needed is being rejected and makes me go to the washroom once a day.
The biggest problem in our society is too much garbage food the likes of sugar, salt, chips, pops, etc…
Too much of a good thing has created one of our biggest problems, obesity, which affects the majority of our population.

#204 Dan in Victoria on 05.06.12 at 11:34 am

Kaganovich and Form Man
All good points. Vinyl definately breaks down as you two have described.
The point Form Man made about site grading is also one of the most over looked issues I see.
It MUST slope away from the home.
This includes sidewalks, patios, driveways and your landscaping.
For those of you who are wondering what rain screen is.
The exterior wall is sheathed with your choice of OSB, Plywood or Resawn. The tarpaper is installed, then some one inch treated plywood strips are secured to the house. The plywood strips are 3/8’s to 1/2 half inch thick.
At the bottom there is a continous metal vent installed, this is the same thickness as your strapping.
Then your hardi board is installed over top.
What this does is give you a 3/8’s-1/2 inch airspace between the siding and sheathing.
And lets any moisture escape through the bottom vents.
Seems like a good system so far.
I’d also be interested in the half inch hardi board.
Another important subject would be insulation and attic venting.

#205 daystar on 05.06.12 at 11:41 am

#168 Boomer on 05.05.12 at 11:44 pm

Lol, low volume entries are more interesting for you? Uh huh… you just don’t like what I have to say so why don’t you just… self censor? Lol, how hard is that? There’s a word that describes what you are trying to accomplish best here (heads up, it’s a few thousand words to explain):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deletionism_and_inclusionism_in_Wikipedia

Meanwhile, if you’re up to a mere thousand words or so, if thats not too much for you (don’t wanna push you, you’re up in years):

http://issues.tigweb.org/expression

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” – Noam Chomsky

Who’s Noam, boomer? Just some wordy professor who as such, would be a tremendous bore to a deletionist like yourself, I’m sure. :)

If links that contain a few thousand words don’t intimidate you, this may be where you fit right in:

http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Association_of_Deletionist_Wikipedians

… but if need something stronger, perhaps history can repeat if you get enough folks to follow you. Go hard!:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_book_burnings

#176 Blacksheep on 05.06.12 at 3:18 am

Thanks, you too ;)

#206 Timbo on 05.06.12 at 11:48 am

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/05/new-american-dream-is-renting.html

“That said, I do not think home prices are going much of anywhere “in general” because there is still years of shadow inventory and years of foreclosures to work through.

Moreover boomer demographics suggest much downsizing is ahead (and who will boomers sell their mansions to?”

Ah, the problems that lay ahead. Fewer and fewer middle income families with lower and lower wage gains to buy more and more supply.

#207 Harlee on 05.06.12 at 12:49 pm

#187 truth hammer
I’m all for a “diversity of opinion” in this country,but really…Conrad Black ? He’s a shyster that’s all.Not only does Canada not need him,but apparentely he doesn’t need Canada as he renounced his citizenship for a British peerage. F-him .Deport him and his wife and this country will be off.

#208 Harlee on 05.06.12 at 12:55 pm

correction: …and this country will be BETTER off.

#209 Foggy on 05.06.12 at 1:22 pm

@169 Dan in Victoria:

….I myself don’t like osb, down here on the coast a bit of water on the cut joints and it turns into a jet puffed marshmellow….
I prefer the 2×10 ,2×12 floor joists not spanned to the max. 3/4 inch fir plywood would be a sturdy floor for sure…
As to vinyl siding, I built a few houses with it back in the 80′s If I remember right it was 2000 bucks for all the siding and soffits. Cheap. Would I use it on my house? NO…
———————
I’m renovating an old 1910 farm house out here in NS, and have these decisions all the time. I have even replaced entire floors (joists and sub-floor) in my house. My building preferences are similar to yours, formed over years of construction projects.

No OSB for me – only 3/4 T&G plywood for floors. When glued in the t&g and screwed to the joists, seems to be pretty solid to walk on. 3/4 fir (what plywood was in the 50s) is great but expensive.

You’re right on 2×10’s or bigger. Minimum code says 2x8s in many situations, but you can feel the flex in the floor. And if used in the kitchen area will result in cracked joints for ceramic tiles. They should at least reduce the spacing to 12″ on centre in that situation.

As for vinyl siding, I have no problem with it. It’s everywhere out here in the Maritimes. What people forget is it’s a good solution to “retro-fitting” an older home. That’s mostly the reason you see it so often. It can just go on top of the aged cedar or whatever is on there. Reasonable cost and goes up quickly. Like any outdoor plastic, it has UV chemicals in it. Only the first generations of vinyl siding will dust or go brittle. If properly installed and nailed they can withstand hurricanes.

#210 TurnerNation on 05.06.12 at 1:34 pm

Yes, I see others are slowing catching on.

RIP Middle Class. 1946-2008. Middle class was a quaint, post-WW2 marketing creation built upon USA industrial/manfacturing dominance.

To think: a working stiff, no education, barely any training, could afford a house, a car or two, a tee-vee, and a boat. Braces on the kids teeth. Christmas tress full of presents. A new stove for the missus. Union benefits. Job for life. Gold watch at age 55.
No longer.

The robberbarrons have wrestled back labour rights, taking us back to Depression-era desperation. They always win.

Today, the industrial/manfacturing jobs are outsourced overseas at a fraction of the cost. Or reamining at home but at post-GFC wages ($15, not $60).

#211 TurnerNation on 05.06.12 at 1:36 pm

This weblog’s title: Advice.

Rhymes with avarice.

#212 Westernman on 05.06.12 at 1:41 pm

Truth Hammer @ # 187,
Well said, but I have bad news for you. This country is and has been mired in leftist socialist brainwashing ever since that vermin Trudeau got hold of the helm ( thanks to our fine friends in Quebec ).
We are now at the stage where nothing more has to be done – the brainwashing is complete and the whole thing runs on autopilot…
Need proof? Just listen to the politically correct, leftist, socialist eggplants on this blog call for yet more government regulations on a regular basis…
Yes, Canada, we are just one more government tax away from prosperity…

#213 Westernman on 05.06.12 at 1:47 pm

Beach Girl @ # 178,
Criminaly irresponsilble bi-polar juvenile with physcosis huh? Yeah, sounds great… I imagine you and him can talk on about the same level then…

#214 Westernman on 05.06.12 at 1:52 pm

DELETED

#215 Dan in Victoria on 05.06.12 at 2:10 pm

Foggy @ 210
Thats a very good point about the vinyl being used to retro fit. You’re right of course.
As to the newer type vinyl not chalking up and becoming brittle, thats good to know.
Always good learn something new from others.
Thanks for taking the time to educate me.

#216 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 2:24 pm

#178 Beach Girl on 05.06.12 at 5:51 am

Wow.

But it’s always good on this blog to hear from someone who still has a heart.

Cheers,

John

#217 Rental Monkey on 05.06.12 at 2:26 pm

@GregW:
Let eaglebay keep eating his corn. Soon he will stay asleep-permantly.

#218 brainsail on 05.06.12 at 2:45 pm

Dan in Victoria, Form Man etc

It is a comfort to me to read about house builders who strive for “Best Construction Practices” vs. minimum building code requirements.

My stab at DA was intended to be towards the developers of multi-family units destined to be sold as condos. As an Architect who worked in Alberta a long time ago, I still have the occasional sleepless night thinking about some of the projects I worked on. It was all about greed. Heaven forbid you if ever suggested something that exceeded minimum code. Weeks spent hancuffed to a desk trying to design a two story townhouse with four bedrooms could not not exceed 729 SF and then I would have to go through the humility of putting my profession stamp on it. It was criminal. All of those thousands and thousands of people that have their life savings invested in crap that will need expensive repairs over time. No wonder Edmonton has the highest murder rate. It’s called living in a ghetto.

Time for a blue agave.

#219 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.06.12 at 2:59 pm

AND THE MOBS SHALL INHERIT THE EARTH

“Whadda we want? CHEESE!! When do we wannit? NOW!!!!

In France and Greece the wheels have come off the ECB’s carefully-constructed austerity bandwagon.

The next wagon that’ll be showing up in downtown Paris will be the one carrying the gillotine.

Dusted off, from the gay mob-infested 1790s, this little piece of kit should take care of all of those greasy fat capitalists and large corporations!

More cheese, dammit and now!

The mobs of French voters have elected M. Hollande, Mr. Pie in the Sky.

He has made impossible promises, including taxing the rich to a virtually 100 per cent of their income.

Whither the rich?

Yep, they’re heading for London, England.

LONDON AND PARIS: A “TALE OF TWO CITIES” Thankyou Charles Dickens!! Again!

The Paris street demos will be up and running in about a month of two. Why, because M. Hollande, by then, will have RUN OUT OF CHEESE!!

MEANWHILE IN THE GREASE-PIT OF EUROPE: GREECE. SOME NEO-NAZIS HAVE BEEN ELECTED TO PARLIAMENT, IN ELECTIONS THERE TODAY!!

Read this from Yahoo!

“..,.The ruling parties have been struck by an earthquake. It has crushed Pasok and sent a strong tremor through New Democracy,” shadow foreign minister Panos Panagiotopoulos said …

Neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn was also set to enter parliament for the first time since the end of the military junta in 1974, with six to eight percent, making it the sixth-biggest party in the 300-seat chamber with some 25 lawmakers…

“A new nationalist movement dawns,” Golden Dawn said… “Hundreds of thousands of Greeks have dynamically joined the national cause for a great, free Greece.”

The fourth-biggest party was set to be Independent Greeks with 10-12 percent, a new right-wing party,… followed by the communist KKE on 7.5-9.5 percent.

The Democratic Left…notched up 4.5-6.5 percent. In total nine parties were set to enter parliament compared with just five after the last election.

THAT OUTCOME IS OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A DOG’S BREAKFAST. The street demos should be terrific. GREECE HAS NO CHEESE!

The upcoming US elections should be interesting!? WHERE’S THE CHEESE?

#220 bill on 05.06.12 at 3:01 pm

#167 questions for John G Young on 05.05.12 at 11:44 pm Why are you compelled to squabble and nitpick?

a question you should ask yourself ‘questions for john g. young’
whats your regular ‘nom de plume’ on the blog?
why dont you use that one?
just so we could gauge your contributions compared to his eh?….
cause you have really, really contributed to Garth’s blog right?

#221 getreal-tor on 05.06.12 at 3:01 pm

#145 i’m stupid on 05.05.12 at 7:36 pm

Ahh, yes, the good old Versailes built by Jack and Mahvash Lechcier-Kimel. Many of their properties went into receivership in 2008/2009 and here is a first hand look of the _real_ value in _real_ estate.

The property was listed in 2010 at 23.8m and if I am not mistaken it also said 35,000 sq ft. Now I see it is 22k sqft and 15.9m.

I wanted to bid 10m but ever since i made my millions on the real estate market and i’ve started eating “rich” food, i’ve developed IBS and 14 bathrooms just isn’t enough for me.

#222 truth hammer on 05.06.12 at 3:20 pm

Re # 199…..nope that argument doesn’t cut it. The ‘xenophobia’ and other ad hominen attacks are not going to explain why foriegn nationals must be restricted from the local markets…..we do it with many industries in Canada…as all countries do…with the exception being Canada when real estate is concerned….the question is not rascist but economic….pointing out that there is a problem..as Ms. Francis has in real estate taxation…is not the same pickle as the EU is now involved with trying to solve the economies of the Middle East and African countries by creating an immigrant economic strategy that is sustainable……if we’re going ti disagree lets at least make sure we’re talking about the same thing.

Btw…since you brought it up…..the liberal policy on mass immigration in Europe has been decided on as dysfunctional….by the same parites who introduced it as a social experiment 30 years ago……Trudeaumania is soooooooo dead man.

#223 truth hammer on 05.06.12 at 3:31 pm

#208 H….Conrad single handedly beat back the Liberal forces of mass propaganda under Chretian. They disallowed his honour to spite him using a vague 1902 paper giving the PM a direct case study say in the matter of dual citizenship. Of course the Liberals did not want the dissenting opinion of the National Post to upset the heavily skewed media apple cart they had control of. Don’t forget the Liberal Party had no representation in Western Canada as we had ridden Trudeau out of town on a rail…literally. The opinions of a few elite inheritance cases and tenured professors in Rosedale and Outremount had gag laws in place to squelch the opinions of the people and it took a free(er) media than the CBC ( Liberal Party mouthpiece and school for future GG’s) or the TO Star was offering centralist thinkers in the ROC…specifically the staunch progressives and democrats in the western provinces.

Conrad Black was determined to be a threat and TPTB did the best they could to shut the Nat Post down…….except they forgot that once Canadians woke up they would vote the LIberals out of the strongholds of southern Ontario and once again spread democracy to an enlightened population hearing ‘all the news’ not just the political speak coming out of the liberal leftist elite.

What a load of crap. — Garth

#224 Ret on 05.06.12 at 3:57 pm

#201 Form Man

Lots of vinyl sided new builds less than 2m apart in Hamilton. Enforcement of local or Ontario building codes in this city is laughable.

Also they used vinyl siding to re-side 50-70 crappy rental townhouses on the West Mountain (Garth area, Limeridge) to update them.

#225 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.06.12 at 4:17 pm

More realtor shenanigans:

C2344860 – M5N – 363 FAIRLAWN AVE Toronto, Ontario
Apr 25: $850,000
May 6: $950,000

And, in case you were wondering what kind of amazing home you get for paying $1M (and having to up you bid by $100k+ from last week):

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11841806&PidKey=-582210144

Yes – that’s right… A realtor-engineered bidding war over some dumpy bungalow that’s going to be torn down immediately.

What bubble?

#226 Canadian Watchdog on 05.06.12 at 4:35 pm

#189 TurnerNation

If rental prices kept pace with rising condo prices, the average rent price should be around $2100 for a standard condo.

#227 Harlee on 05.06.12 at 4:58 pm

#224 truth hammer
What Garth said.

#228 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 5:31 pm

#215 Westernman on 05.06.12 at 1:52 pm

DELETED

Hate-O-Meter workin’ overtime.

#229 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 5:34 pm

#221 bill on 05.06.12 at 3:01 pm

“a question you should ask yourself ‘questions for john g. young’
whats your regular ‘nom de plume’ on the blog?
why dont you use that one?”

Let me take a stab at it: because he has no balls?

His last Canadian girlfriend took them, along with those of several other contributors.

#230 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 5:35 pm

I forgot to add: sarc off.

#231 The Thing in the Basement on 05.06.12 at 6:03 pm

For those who may want to do some further research:

http://architecture.about.com/cs/repairremodel/a/vinyl.htm

#232 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.06.12 at 6:12 pm

I just realized an even more ridiculous aspect to the 363 Fairlawn listing… The listing agent IS THE HOMEOWNER!
(the address of the agent is the address of the house)

So – some dude selling his own dumpy tear-down house played games with potential buyers (raising the listing $100k in 1 week), and is 100% responsible for this silliness.

#233 Renting In The GTA on 05.06.12 at 6:14 pm

There goes the theory of kids don’t read this blog… Just look at all these posts…

#234 Mr Buyer on 05.06.12 at 6:30 pm

#204 eaglebay – Parksville on 05.06.12 at 11:24 am
#188 GregW, Oakville on 05.06.12 at 10:06 am
Whatever isn’t needed is being rejected and makes me go to the washroom once a day.
…………………………………………………………………….
Or causes intestinal bleeding, or causes refolding of your own proteins and accumulation and deposits of your own refolded and thus re-purposed proteins. I go more for the calculated risk approach but that involves a highly detailed understanding of the risks to be of any real value as an approach. The gaining and dissemination of said understanding is often severely hampered for non-scientific reasons. Progress thwarted.

#235 Westernman on 05.06.12 at 6:34 pm

John G. Young @ # 229,
You would just love to know, wouldn’t you? Maybe you can petition Garth to let one through, heh,heh…
P.S. – not hate- just calling you what you are… you see, I didn’t drink the politically correct kool-aid…
I still know the difference between shit and shinolah…

#236 Al on 05.06.12 at 6:39 pm

Re: #199 – Truth Hammer; The Govt should not ban all foreign buying of Canadian Real Estate, but Taxes must be paid on the capital gains and this could be done by having a 25% holdback on all assignments or flips by non-residents which can be released or offset against taxes due.

#237 Pops Ol' Limey on 05.06.12 at 6:47 pm

America’s got factory robots – they don’t make a wage and they’re not consumer spenders. Efficiency’s up and factory numbers are down.

EU lets hope Hollande isn’t a Reynaud-type precursor.

#238 Timbo on 05.06.12 at 7:02 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9249627/France-Greece-and-Germany-election-results-send-austerity-shockwaves-through-Europe.html

Change is in the wind. Keep the young unemployed for too long and nationalism always returns.

The markets are going to be fascinating to watch over the next 6 months. Stock up on the popcorn folks.

#239 daystar on 05.06.12 at 7:26 pm

#200 John on 05.06.12 at 11:00 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)

What you should be asking yourself is… can Canada can do with out derivatives and still function financially? If some have to stay…. which ones can go overnight and which ones can be phased out over time?

You must somehow believe I disagree with you on the dangers of derivatives by the way. I don’t. Not only do I agree with you, I know derivatives needs reform ok, but there are different approaches to all reforms. Some of it can be done overnight, some of it has to be done incrementally and again, like I say, it takes political will from our elected governments and if they can’t or won’t touch it then the system remains unchanged and I can’t stress this next point enough.

If there is political will (or even the future potential of it with opposition parties assuming future power), you want people at the table you can trust sure, but the possession of superior knowledge by others shouldn’t intimidate, you want people at the table who know what they are doing and whom you can trust but how do you know what the minds and hearts of those in question hold until you actually sit down and talk to them? Objectivity is golden.

Are you telling me you are more knowledgeable than Mark Carney? I get your lack of trust, thats obvious (though I doubt you’ve ever met him) but are you seriously telling me your knowledge of derivatives is superior so you don’t need input from someone of the same background at the very least… from somewhere else and if so, who? Are you your best backup? If not somelike Mark Carney then who? Its a fair question.

It reminds me of a quick story about the Divine government (no offense, I’m not implying anything, for right now anyway :). When Divine government assumed power, they got rid of all the senior management running crown corps because they couldn’t trust them. They were civil servants… appointed by the previous NDP government… but they “were” civil servants. What later followed was the great selloff of a good chunk of these same crown corps because the Divine govenment got rid of anyone who knew what they were doing, couldn’t find decent replacements and as a consequence these same crown corps drifted into major losses from the brain drain that followed. It didn’t jive with the Divine government’s “ideology” to keep crown corps so crown corps like Sask Potash were sold off for 700 million. 25 years later government turned down the $43 billion sale of the same corporation by a foreign buyer and POT profitted for 24 of 25 years during this time costing billions more in profit revenue. This is the consequence of mistrust (more like paranoia) inappropriately placed. (the BoC is a crown corp, just sayin)

I trust you checked out the link as a teaser John. Which types of derivatives do you have in mind? A few? A good percentage? All of them? Indulge us with specifics if you have them because you are at a core theme here that I believe is VERY worth talking about on greater fool. If the U.S. housing meltdown taught us anything, its that history can repeat and Canada could have a problem with derivatives here with a similar RE/credit bubble going bust so lets chat, its what we do! Oh, and I should note that F is already on record as saying derivatives in Canada are “fine” so there is no political will to reform derivatives likely until the Harper government is gone or until its too late meaning logic suggests that we prepare reform packages for derivatives for opposition parties assuming we have our own political will to do so. If you have the will, I have a story for you I “know” you will want to hear.

#240 Boomer on 05.06.12 at 7:53 pm

Daystar#206–my point was that this is a real-estate/financial blog. Maybe that is what the comments should be centered around. There are other posters who also get way “off point” Disiple, Greg from Oakeville, Mal Vad etc. I have no problem “reading thousands of words” and do so quite often. What I do though is read what is relevant to the subject I am interested in. Yours and other posters who do the same are not relevant to this blogs and Garths intention for the blog. It’s real estate! BTW, what is up with the discussion on siding for houses !

#241 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.06.12 at 7:54 pm


#211 TurnerNation — “The robberbarrons have wrestled back labour rights, taking us back to Depression-era desperation. They always win.” — Correct.
*
More jobs? “The participation rate is a more accurate measure of the jobs crisis, as it takes into account the millions of people who have given up hope of finding work and are not counted as unemployed.”; Just a Minute 54 second dress rehearsal; Hedge Funds Why should we be worried? I’m not; The Stall Like the cart before the horse, it ain’t moving; GW Theory “This is a pathetic attempt by the money-junkies to make you think that the Wall Street Mortgage-backed securities fraud that destroyed the entire western economic system was somehow a good thing.” wrh.com;
Foaming At The Mouth The Pythons? Not quite; Iceland “The US Rothschild Controlled Media (RCM) has completely BLACKED OUT/CENSORED any news about Iceland’s DEBT FORGIVENESS.”
*
3:11 clip Sacre bleu! The zionist whore Sarkozy lost (good riddance). and 2:43 clip Ron Paul wins Maine; Cdn. Vote Fraud There are records that prove fraud happened; Chernobyl and a doc’s comments; Copyright Infringement Closing off Freedom of Speech? Robots Outsourcing Humans in different categories; Neocons Playing with fire; Palestinian Hunger Strike which the paid-for and controlled western m$m conveniently ignores; SArabia Israel’s last hope; Propaganda Selling in NCIS See how the WH and Pentagon manipulate the media; America “Hitler and Stalin, move over!”

#242 TurnerNation on 05.06.12 at 8:03 pm

Interesting quote:

“The Capitalist model needs expansion, expansion, expansion to work.

Austerity is anathema to Capitalism. How ironic that the Socialists must point this out to the world. ”

If so, then austerity is more of “killing us softly”, our way of life is disappearing.

#243 TurnerNation on 05.06.12 at 8:03 pm

Is this a siding blog? :)

Apparently. — Garth

#244 John G. Young on 05.06.12 at 8:04 pm

#236 Westernman on 05.06.12 at 6:34 pm

“You would just love to know, wouldn’t you?”

Not really, but I know you’re never going to stop. (Neither am I.)

“P.S. – not hate- just calling you what you are”

And what would that be?
I’m all ears. Please try not to set off the Hate-O-Meter this time.

#245 Kim on 05.06.12 at 8:13 pm

T.O bubble boy #223.

Looks like that realtors is looking to cash out of the housing bubble and looking for the last greater fool. Realtors tell you to buy but looking to sell out of the housing bubble…lol

#246 daystar on 05.06.12 at 9:51 pm

#241 Boomer on 05.06.12 at 7:53 pm

Cool, I’m ok with it. Just remember yourself that real estate is influenced heavily by media, governmental regulations which for me makes politics entirely game as it relates to to real estate in a big way through fiscal policy, obviously interest rates i.e. monetary policy, pretty much anything to do with macroeconomics as it has to do with incomes that support housing as well as a huge number of social factors that effect buyer/seller habits/choices not to mention pure raw emotions (we are human being) so my advice to you is broaden your horizons. We are talking about far more than marketing, valuations and building materials here.

Another point I want to make is that we can’t fall into the trap of limiting conversations that seemingly don’t have anything to do with the subject at hand because they aren’t directly connected to RE the way we think. An excellent example is derivatives. We think initially for example that deriviatives have nothing to do with housing but they are related, some say heavily, as evidenced by U.S. housing triggering a financial meltdown. The fallout of the impacts of derivatives have yet to be realized with inflation in the U.S. as well as their currency but its a matter of time and interest rates will reflect this, at some point effecting the housing market. My point is, housing is integrated into macroeconomics on quazi levels here never mind socially or politically so in my view seemingly off beat subjects like derivatives are fair game to discuss because they could well be front page news domestically in Canada within 5 years and certain “intellectuals” will be asking themselves, “geez, Greater fool is a well run blog, why wasn’t it mentioned?”

Not to flog a dead horse, but wikipedia has been through the issues of what should be “deleted or included” especially so because they are generating an encyclopedia and space is not an issue (other than to Garth, he has to read these comments lengthy as they are and have noticed that the only person I really apologize to concerning length is Garth? Thats why. The rest of us can glaze over my posts but Garth doesn’t have the luxury). Its not just access to information that challenges readers, it’s validating information as accurate or in context once you access it. Deletionists and inclusionists both make strong points on both sides but there’s a balance there that we are after and if you really want to know Garth’s views on the subject of “deletion/inclusion”, try reading the words in blue above the comment box. Its all there.

Lets not forget as well that this very blog, as is wikipedia, is a work in progess? We, as commentors and readers alike are also a work in progress and we have to respect the learning curve of others. No one paints a Mona Lisa their first time out. Some never will learn to paint but we should have some level of respect for those who try.

#247 Lorne on 05.06.12 at 9:57 pm

Actually, I am enjoying the discussion of OSB, plywood, vinyl, hardiplank etc….gives me a great deal of info on the type of things I want on the house I eventually buy or get built. Thanks to you all!

#248 The Thing in the Basement on 05.06.12 at 10:45 pm

241 Boomer – tent or cave?

#249 bill on 05.06.12 at 10:54 pm

#248 Lorne on 05.06.12 at 9:57 pm
same here. interesting discussion on the siding guys.

John G. Young: you could very well be right about the lack of testes. not sure of the ”root cause” so to speak.

#250 Form Man on 05.06.12 at 10:55 pm

#219 brainsail

There are a few of us who understand the importance of using good materials and good building practice. The building code and inspectors exist to prevent bad construction, but we have a ways to go…….

#225 Ret

that is downright scary

#205 Dan

thanks. I agree with you that correct attic venting is another poorly understood concept. nice to chat with other builders who take an interest in building sound structures

#210 Foggy

you sound like a vinyl siding salesman. I cannot be convinced that plastic less than 1/8″ thick is an appropriate siding material. I also don’t buy the sales crap that new vinyl is better. It is junk that should be banned. In BC it is now pretty much only used on low end and starter homes. Enough said……..

#251 disciple on 05.06.12 at 11:11 pm

Boomer, I have a suggestion for what you can do with some siding… BTW, those were a couple of great posts on RE and money, keep ’em coming…

#252 GregW, Oakville on 05.07.12 at 10:28 am

Hi #218 Rental,

Your idea is apealing on one level, but if they can do it to him you won’t be safe either. We need more people awake not going asleep IMO.

#253 Rental Monkey on 05.07.12 at 9:59 pm

@253 Greg

What I meant is: the info is out there. Those that are’awake’, make attempts to avoid GMO’S. Those not awake are blindly ingesting with will prove to be fatal.

And he is not one that is ‘awake’.

#254 GregW, Oakville on 05.08.12 at 8:37 am

Hi #254 Rental,

I just woke up to the GMO issue, Yes I had heard about GMO’s but I didn’t really know it’s extent until I heard the author of the seeds of deception speak.(see link in past comment to hear similar talk he gave.)

Unfortunately I am sure I have eaten some GMO’s and I find it hard to be sure exactly what I am eating now. Even if it says organic or GMO free. Many things say 80% GMO free, may a well not bother, but thaws marketers. ‘Natural’ has no meaning, just marketing.

It seems anything marked organic from China is all suspect as a start.

Labeling GMO stuff might help awake people avoid it, but they don’t seem to want us to know.
Might be linked to that ‘Bill Gates loves vaccines to reduce population’ (FYI if you haven’t seen it, it can be seem on YouTube!).

I hope my intestinal flora is not now a pesticide factory due to some GMO’s?!! That would be just what your body needs to stay as healthy as possible, not. But it’s harder to maximize profit taking from healthy people. Once your gut starts making BT toxin it doesn’t sound to me like there is a way to stop it, besides your eventual death, with illness and suffering until that point.

But some people in the Government in Europe and India have figured out it is going to harm there own families, so there is a bit of hope, maybe. Now if we could just get ride of dishonest bureaucrats, and keep the good ones that act to protect themselves, because if they can do it to others it will come back to effect there own families!

I heard even some employees at a Monsanto lab will not eat GMO in the company lunch room, so they only serve organic food, if you can really tell any more! Is anyone checking, I don’t think so. The emplyee scientist have seen or done studied on animals feed GMO food, not sure all there in house studies get published. It might hurt there poffits!