‘They have no idea’

“One thing I can tell you is that sentiment is changing,” he tells me. ‘But it is amazing how many people just have no idea what is coming and how big it will be.” The place, Vancouver in the Spring of 2012. The guy, a veteran real estate player. The warning, a real estate implosion.

What was supposed to be a fecund season for housing, with 2.99% mortgage rates, rising financial markets and restored confidence, has turned stunningly arid. Suddenly government officials, like the finance minister and the bank governor, are working overtime to kill expectation and murder house lust. The mainstream media’s brimming with it’s-a-bubble! stories, from CBC TV’s National TV panel Tuesday night (poor Patti Croft), to the Globe’s new horny homes section to a warning from the mercurial economist, Sherry Cooper:

“Too much reliance on housing appreciation for wealth accumulation and retirement security is very dangerous. Retirement nest eggs in Spain have been obliterated, and nest eggs in the U.S. have shrunk considerably. Too much household debt is also very dangerous. It increases vulnerability to interest rate risk and to economic risk of income losses or job losses.”

In other words, when 70% of families own houses and have more mortgage debt than anyone imagined possible, we’re probably going down. In fact, just five days ago F himself talked about Toronto’s loopy condo market, and used the word “crash.” And Mark Carney might as well go to work in a hearse and shave with a scythe just to make his point a little clearer.

The odds of these people having better market stats than the rest of us are about 100%. But the little bit we already know should clean out your colon quite nicely.

Take Vancouver as a fair example, since the correction there will have national implications. In Richmond – sizzling hot a year ago amid non-stop reports of endless HAM – over 75% of property deals are now going for less than the assessed value. Forget bidding wars. This is becoming a realtor graveyard. Suddenly owners are doing what always happens in a market dive – realizing their paper profits will turn vaporous if they don’t cash out. Listings rise, sales don’t and prices fade – the classic vicious cycle.

This week’s numbers from Van’s real estate board start to tell the story. Sales are failing. No, they’re cascading. Deals fell 13.2% in April compared to a year ago. But more significantly, they dipped 2.6% from March – and March sales crashed lower by 29.6% from the same month in 2011. And this is supposed to be the year’s prime real estate time, amid the lowest mortgage rates ever.

But it gets worse. April sales were the lowest in more than a decade, and 17% below the 10-year average. Sales of townhomes are off 22%. A yearly price advance of 11% a few months ago has been cut to 3%, on its way to zero and beyond. There are 16,538 active listings and rising. Detached sales are off 19.7%. And the average SFH price has dropped by $100,000 so far this year – a journey which has just commenced.

What does board boss Eugen Klein call this unfolding disaster? “A balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply.”

Andy calls is hopeful. He earns $120,000, rents in Kitsilano ($1,800 for three-bedrooms) and at 30 figures he’s the last sane person in the city. “It ain’t a sexy life to the ladies, but I figure if they only want me for my giant Moen faucet,” he says, disturbingly, “they’re the wrong type of girl anyway.”

“Before finding this blog I was beginning to think I was the only one left in this city who doesn’t own. My entire peer group – most in my same income bracket – have all bought granite-laden kitchens with cupboard drawers that whisper shut. . . and they’ve been making fun of my caveman existence for the last few years now. The latest was my last renting friend; he and his GF spent $480K on a 1-bedroom condo with really polished everything.”

Andy’s question: “Is owning a home in Vancouver ever going to be feasible for a single guy like me, even assuming there’s a 15% correction and assuming my income doesn’t drastically increase?  Will it ever happen?”

Well, little-spigot buddy, a year ago F was saying there was no bubble. Hot Asians were flying overhead in helicopters. Bidding wars were rampant where today crickets roam. No one imagined CMHC could run out of money. House sales in the city were up 31% and the average detached price was flirting with $1.2 million. Nobody in government was uttering the ‘crash’ word, and this was blog soldiering on, popular as a giant zit on prom night.

The surprise now is that people will be surprised. No, shocked.

The patient and the liquid shall inherit the city, Andy. Just work on the faucet thing.

276 comments ↓

#1 Claudius Emperor on 05.02.12 at 9:08 pm

last?

#2 Claudius Emperor on 05.02.12 at 9:08 pm

can’t resist the temptation…

#3 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.02.12 at 9:13 pm

“Everything Will be Alright”
You can bank on Bob Rennie and Tsur Sommerville. The genius of these 2 men cannot be understated

Sales means nothing price means everything. Don’t get too excited nothing moves straight up or straight down. The renter is still a renter and the owner sits in the Winners Circle.

#4 GeneticistX on 05.02.12 at 9:18 pm

Ive seen it all now. Greedy agents, horny bidding war types… I just saw a listing of a place in middle/west toronto. Listing price today is LOWER than what it sold for 4 years ago. The purpose here, obviously, is to get a bidding war going. I told my real estate agent that it is a disgusting practice and has to stop. My next conversation with her, i told her, if I do have any interest in purchasing the property, and there is a bidding war, I will put in ONE bid, and I want it to be an open bid, in other words, i want all the others bidding on the property to be aware of what my offer is. I won’t get the property, but i want to see what $500k can get me in the big smoke (godless TO).

As always, GT, great post.

m

#5 This is Wonderland on 05.02.12 at 9:20 pm

Fecund Garth?

Jesus! Now I have to start looking words up to read this pathetic blog.

#6 Husky on 05.02.12 at 9:21 pm

hmm, should I still go to the upper unionville release in 2 weeks. Been waiting for the opening. hmm, you know what, I can’t help myself. I’m going.

#7 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.02.12 at 9:22 pm

Does anyone really thing Uncle Stephen Harper and his boys are going to commit financial suicide by disallowing the flow of foreign capital into Canada? Does anyone really in their right mind think that loving Uncle Stephen Harper would allow interest rates to rise hurting Canadians and the economy? Cue Crickets. Ok, now that we understand the FACTS we know that BPOE has nowhere to go but up. For the naysayers this is how it will unfold and mark these words “The weak bids will be mopped up”. If Canada raises interest rates and clmps down on borrowing this would affect SHORT TERM the market as Canadians sturggled. These weak bids aka the Canadians would be mopped up by offshore Capital. Offshore Capital does NOT MEAN China it means money from around the world. The focus on Chinese money is absurd. Go to West Van the richest zipcode in Canada alot more Middle East money there than from China. Either way you slice it everything is looking GREAT! Onward and upward. Iron Fist on the Tiller as we head to new heights

#8 Ryan Perich on 05.02.12 at 9:22 pm

in 2007 Calgary home prices were approaching $450k for the “average” and exceeding $600k here in Edmonton near the university for 50 year old peices of junk.
40-50 year old apartment buildings were converted by the thousands (2,700) in 2006 and being open housed auctioned off for over a quarter million for a 1-2 bedroom.
NOBODY called it “a bubble” – they called it “that’s the way it is, buy now or be priced out forever”.

why are these prices in Hongcouver and the center of the universe being called bubblish NOW , 5 years later with arguably 10-15 % higher inflation ?

because the cities are bigger or because banks and mortgage brokers and lenders can no longer offset the risk to the federal government but now must take ownership of that risk ?

It’s a mad..mad…world….er.. Canada.

#9 Phil Indablanque on 05.02.12 at 9:25 pm

” And Mark Carney might as well go to work in a hearse and shave with a scythe just to make his point a little clearer.”

It’s stuff like this that makes it worth coming back day after day. Fantastic

#10 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.02.12 at 9:27 pm

Thanks to VREAA for posting links which support my views

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/guest-post-an-ex-vancouverite-in-asia-considering-a-return-lays-out-why-vancouver-real-estate-prices-might-be-justifiable/

#11 Hillcat on 05.02.12 at 9:30 pm

Eugen, you’re not alone buddy!

#12 Hillcat on 05.02.12 at 9:33 pm

Sorry, meant Andy.

#13 vatoDETH on 05.02.12 at 9:36 pm

The National – The Housing Market

I think these analysts have been reading your BLOG!

http://www.cbc.ca/thenational/indepthanalysis/thebottomline/2012/05/the_housing_market.html#socialcomments

#14 Lilyflor on 05.02.12 at 9:37 pm

The hairline cracks are starting to give way under pressure, it may take some time but it’s going to be an ugly ending

#15 Smoking Man on 05.02.12 at 9:37 pm

Even the ridiculous over priced in long branch are sold.

They say I’m in Insane, only 3 red dots ( mls) in Longbranch south of lake shore left.

When treb issues sales for GTA, April numbers they will be out of the world.

I’m getting scared now.

Very bad for the long term.

#16 Harlee on 05.02.12 at 9:38 pm

“…clean out your colon quite nicely..”
Like in a memory card perhaps? I’ve known Van since 1975 and it has some nice ammenities but it IS one weird place. No surprise that the housing market got so over-heated there and no surprise that it will come down hard there too. I suppose a year from now we’ll all have an idea by just how much it will be.Did someone mention… “popcorn” ?

#17 Pastor Mike on 05.02.12 at 9:38 pm

The first will be last, and the last will be first. For many are called, and few are chosen.

Makes me want to fall to my knees and write an offer. — Garth

#18 Tripp on 05.02.12 at 9:39 pm

Fundamentals don’t matter. Debt is wealth. Freedom is slavery. Everything is backwards until it isn’t. It’s time to sink this pig. The bubble is slowly bursting, and the decline will be much worse than people expect.

#19 Smoking Man on 05.02.12 at 9:40 pm

#3 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.02.12 at 9:13 pm

Like your mojo I should Try it

Smoking Man#1

#20 Chaddywack on 05.02.12 at 9:43 pm

I don’t know anymore. It seems that every car I see in downtown Vancouver is worth 60k or higher. One of my buddies told me “Dude! you have no idea how much money is in this city.”

I’m starting to wonder if these Bimmers, Porches, and Bentleys were all bought on HELOCs…

The average household income is $83,130. — Garth

#21 Jsan on 05.02.12 at 9:43 pm

Is it me or does it seem like “$$$BPOE#1” is really starting to get nervous about this market?

This is nothing, wait until prices start heading down, than the momentum and real worry kicks into overdrive. There is nothing like watching thousands of real estate speculators all trying to get out of the market at the same time.

#22 45north on 05.02.12 at 9:43 pm

Utopia: I met a gal and her husband yesterday who just arrived in Saskatoon from the United States.

I asked her casually if things were really as bad in the States as we see in the news. “Worse” she said in a thick Southern drawl “you really have no idea”.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/03/31/grow-a-set/#comments

#23 Onthesidelines on 05.02.12 at 9:46 pm

Something fishy about your Andy story. For regular wage slaves, 400k+ condo is surely over priced, but for a guy like him who’s puling in 120K a year at 30, what’s the problem? The price is about 3.5 X his annual salary – more or less historic average. So what is he whining about not being able to afford?

Also, the 3 bedroom in kits for $1800 really sounds like bs. Even a basement dump would cost more.

Just because one can afford a 500-square-foot box costing $480,000 does not mean one should buy, now does it? — Garth

#24 Don on 05.02.12 at 9:47 pm

$$$BPOE#1 on 05.02.12 at 9:27 pm Thanks to VREAA for posting links which support my views

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/guest-post-an-ex-vancouverite-in-asia-considering-a-return-lays-out-why-vancouver-real-estate-prices-might-be-justifiable/
********

Not exactly a good source the link I mean.

and yes Harper has little choice in the matter – the banks were bailed out.

CRASH, BURST and lack of brains poor BPOE.

#25 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.02.12 at 9:53 pm

Garth 2:1 “And the crowd of blog dogs stood before the mount to hear the words of the bearded mystic oracle. The skies darkened and the sun did not give her light. Thunder roared and lightning flashed across the sky. A hush came over the crowd as the bearded oracle prepared to speak. Then he began:

Blessed are the patient and the liquid for they shall inherit the cities of this land,
Blessed are those who cry out for real estate sanity, they shall be rewarded,
Blessed are those who have rented and suffered the abuse of their friends and families for they shall see their reward,
Blessed are those who faithfully read and understood the words of the bearded mystic oracle who speaks before you, they shall see the kingdom of liquidity and all the joy that it brings,
Blessed are those who have suffered in silence waiting for the bubble to break, they shall be rewarded,
Blessed are those who didn’t drink of the real estate kool aid, they shall now be refreshed,
Blessed are those who resisted granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and hummers, they shall inherit the earth,
Blessed are those who understood liquidity and preferred shares, they shall now see the kingdom of capital appreciation before them.

Then a dove descended from the sky and a voice boomed out, “o faithful lone prophet in the financial wasteland of Canada, in you I am well pleased”.

The crowd broke into wild applause.

#26 neta on 05.02.12 at 9:54 pm

I sense that Carney will not be able to raise rates because of deteriorating economic situation. As Dodge said, the bubble must be addressed on Policy level. However, Flaherty, with his trade mark arrogance, will not do anything significant to address the problem
Therefore, I predict that at some point later this year Carney will resign from his post and sink to the bottom of the pond, waiting patiently for Titanic to start taking water. Then he will jump into the political arena, all in white, leading Liberal assault on Harper government.

#27 East Van on 05.02.12 at 9:56 pm

The stats in Garth’s blog are for Metro Vancouver, not Vancouver proper – they are two very different things.

One is even more delusional than the other, and headed for a similar outcome. — Garth

#28 Monster Cookie on 05.02.12 at 10:01 pm

It’s not a bubble, for the last time, it’s a balloon!
Balloons are soft and fun and happy!

I’m thinking about perusing the MLS soon, I want to start looking for my new digs.

It’s been a blast so far here at the greaterfool and it should be more fun soon, starting now.

#29 Kasia on 05.02.12 at 10:09 pm

Husky, don’t be stupid, don’t go!

#30 Canadian Watchdog on 05.02.12 at 10:17 pm

GVREB sales stats for April http://i46.tinypic.com/2wbvmsi.png

But even more disturbing is this.

Total Sales Volume – Type/Apr11/Apr12

Detached $2,162,233,665 $1,309,205,989 -39.5%
Attached $380,109,834 $290,366,500 -23.6%
Apartment $784,113,728 $530,540,478 -32.3%

On average, there was 30% less money circulating in the market during April. This is not a good sign considering it’s peak season. If sales don’t pick up this month, the entire market will plummet going into the summer.

#31 Ex-Cowtown on 05.02.12 at 10:18 pm

I’m starting to think that rates won’t be going up either. Doesn’t matter though. Just look to the U.S. Once the bubble burst, even putting interest rates into a nose dive didn’t help one bit.

From this point on, interest rates are irrelevant. The debt lives forever.

#32 Michael F on 05.02.12 at 10:20 pm

Property in our neck of the woods (Australia) is dropping like a rock. Top end property is taking up to 60% hits in Queensland.
However our Real Estate lobby still claim property prices are increasing but can’t agree by how much.
I guess our media will still spruik favorable property stories until the day their editors get whacked from the carnage unfolding.

We colonials need a translation of ‘spruik.’ Thanks. — Garth

#33 Gord In Vancouver on 05.02.12 at 10:27 pm

And Mark Carney might as well go to work in a hearse and shave with a scythe just to make his point a little clearer.
___________________________

Carney could do that naked and still not get a reaction.

No one takes Carney seriously anymore because, like the boy who repeatedly cried wolf, he hasn’t followed through on his threat to raise interest rates.

#34 Keeping the Faith on 05.02.12 at 10:29 pm

#7 Biggest Ass On Earth …
Hey buddy, i know its different this time … LOSER!

#35 Calgary Car Guy on 05.02.12 at 10:32 pm

$$$BPOE#1
Either way you slice it everything is looking GREAT! Onward and upward. Iron Fist on the Tiller as we head to new heights
——————————————————————-
Seems like a TITANIC freudian slip BPOE! Buddy, the SS Vancouver hit a berg in April and no, there are nowhere near enough lifeboats!

#36 B P O E ?? on 05.02.12 at 10:32 pm

Best Place on Equity until it runs out.

Mr $BPOE$ must really be scared…multiple posts

All those import cars in Vancouver are leased

Winners circle are the renters these days!

Sales falling = No Buyers = crash

Admit it Mr BPOE

#37 Where are the HAM? on 05.02.12 at 10:32 pm

HAM is made up by crooked realtors with little to no education telling the masse lies since realtors think everyone is stupid. For the most part realtors have proved just how stupid the masses in Canada have become. Vancouver is CRASHING and Toronto filled with some of the most clueless people on the planet are next on the house of crashing pain. The housing bubble/ponzi was 100% due to CHMC….realtors know it and mortgage brokers know it. The stupid masses have spent and bought to the danger point of bankrupting Canada. This ponzi had to stop and now the pain will be great. Look out below it’s going to be a nasty crash.

#38 Al on 05.02.12 at 10:34 pm

The lobby in this condo high rise in downtown Calgary smells foul tonight. The water is shut-off for emergency repairs. Some guy in the elevator says his unit on the 17th floor is flooded. Seems to happen all the time.
Nice that I rent, the location is great, mountain views, walk to work, all lovely. But own? No I dont need any special assessments in my future.

#39 Keeping the Faith on 05.02.12 at 10:34 pm

Yoo-hoo Stevenson ….

Red-rum, red-rum … to the beat of the real estate investor

#40 waiting on 05.02.12 at 10:42 pm

Regarding Vancouver April stats – this comment in the Vancouver Sun is indicative of what drivel we’re constantly bombarded with:

“To put it in perspective, in the last decade, April 2012 ranked second lowest for sales during that month, while new listings came in at the third highest, meaning it’s a good time to be shopping for a home in the Fraser Valley because selection has only been this extensive twice.”

The headline in our other source of news, “The Province”, about the 20 empty storefronts on Robson Street has a quote from a realtor saying:

“The vacancy is a welcome change. It may be visibly concerning…but we will see a new trend for different users coming into the market place.”

#41 CHMC built a house of cards. on 05.02.12 at 10:44 pm

Realtors in Toronto enjoy you last supper of greaterfools. These 2.99% morons are going to be bankrupt in no time. The game is over and anyone thinking of buying will commit financial suicide. Driving around the GTA all I see are the same old sold signs and now listings are starting to pile up as 2.99% greater fools are running out. The housing crash in Canada is going to be a hard one as many will go bankrupt.

#42 Tim on 05.02.12 at 10:45 pm

Rates will stay low for a long time, given the economy in the States and Europe. Sure, they will rise a little, but that won’t cause a 30 percent correction, which is what needs to happen at a minimum before it would make sense to buy in Vancouver, no matter how big of a down payment one has.

Rates are increasingly irrelevant. — Garth

#43 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.02.12 at 10:49 pm

David Dodge says no debt problem (unless unemployment spikes), and RE speculation is a foreign capital issue — not a mortgage issue.

Garth – I’m pretty sure Dodge knows what he’s talking about, and probably has less of a vested interest than someone like Carney or F or Bank Economists.

Any insights on why the Dodge interpretation of the debt bubble and housing balloon should be considered ‘wrong’ and Carney ‘right’?

Yes. He’s wrong. — Garth

#44 TaxHaven on 05.02.12 at 10:54 pm

Waiting anxiously for soaring unemployment stats.

Canada’s economy isn’t real. Pigs can’t fly.

#45 The Iceman on 05.02.12 at 10:55 pm

Post #25…”The Gospel of Garth”.

My vote for “post of the year!” …split my sides laughing!

How useless my life must be if this pathetic blog is the only highlight of my day…keep it up boys and girls!

#46 Furst on 05.02.12 at 10:58 pm

I seem to be building a loyal following. Perhaps I should charge Garth a royalty for the followers who are here because of me. I’ve even been invited to host a celebration at a Sunnyvale Trailer Park. Don’t know where that is but I’m obviously someone of importance now. FUURRRRST!!

Selected quotes from my loyal followers.

– “Biggest Idiot Furssttt! You lose Again!!!!”
– “Are you intellectually challenged? Or perhaps you are just lonely in Momma’s basement.”
– “Are you for real?”
– “But you weren’t first man, you weren’t first at all.”

I feel the love.

#47 Toronto_CA on 05.02.12 at 11:02 pm

I’m going to have the biggest smile on my face when the GTA prices start to fall and the blog entries are about GTA condos instead of BPOE. My dad just got back into selling real estate in Burlington, which is a sure sign that the market is going to crash.

#48 Superman on 05.02.12 at 11:03 pm

*** HOLY CRAP ***

Those Vancouver stats are downright f*cked up. Cya later Vancouver, your goose is cooked. This will be an enjoyable ride down the summer. Can you say “Summer slaughter”? And worst of all, these are April stats… when interest rates were at all time lows of 2.99%. Now interest rates have already risen up to 3.39% and will be going higher. I can’t imagine how pathetic May and June are going to look.

#49 Don on 05.02.12 at 11:04 pm

Delusional Vancouver is about to meet it’s maker. BPOE will have to get a job – how many posts can you make in one day BPOE.

Shouldn’t you be out selling houses? The fact that you are not is very very telling. I have realtors friends, the ones with personal and business ethics and they are telling me to stay put and wait. The Victoria market is dead and Vancouver is slowly getting that ghost town feeling.

Unfortunately we will all have to endure years and years of greater fools saying “Why didn’t anyone warn us”.

#50 Superman on 05.02.12 at 11:05 pm

> The stats in Garth’s blog are for Metro Vancouver, not Vancouver proper – they are two very different things.

>> One is even more delusional than the other, and headed for a similar outcome. — Garth

OWNED!

#51 Can it be? on 05.02.12 at 11:06 pm

The speculators are rushing to put their new shiny homes on the market ASAP! The realtors in the GTA are cocky cocky cocky, but I see their stress… They are more on edge then ever. The specs are complaining that they are on te verge of not making money… Amazing with bidding wars??? Imagine the losses when the market turns. I see the last greater fools buying in now… I’m just sitting back watching… No point being Debbie downer. Garth’s point about just because you an afford to buy doesn’t mean you do… Is right on point. I’ve been in that position for a long time… With standing the house hormones and living well within my means stress free. Life is certainly less stressful this way! Good luck pass the popcorn. :)

#52 Junius on 05.02.12 at 11:10 pm

#21 Jsan,

Clearly our friend BPOE is scared. He is so over. It turns out the winner’s circle is a noose around his neck.

#53 AJ on 05.02.12 at 11:15 pm

A single guy at work, late twenties, told me he is looking to buy a place in Toronto. He said he was looking at places “under a million”. He said it in a way that made it sound normal. We are officially screwed.

#54 Freedom First on 05.02.12 at 11:16 pm

……should clean out your colon quite nicely. Garth, great blog, and, as usual you manage to throw in some humourous:) , and true statements like the preceding sentence. Yes Garth, some people are already in shock, they now know what is coming. I know this because there is people who I have passed your blog onto, that now avoid me, or if they do see me, they are careful not to bring up the RE market. And I have the grace not to either. Tried to warn them. Just upset them at the time, I think contempt may be a better word though. I just want everyone to know, I take no joy in people who end up in hard times. Never fun to watch, a person would have to be a sicko to enjoy it. I have to admit though. I am glad it is not me. Diversify, diversify, diversify. It is the only way.

#55 Phil on 05.02.12 at 11:22 pm

1850 for a three bedroom in Kits??? I simply do not believe that.

#56 45north on 05.02.12 at 11:23 pm

Canadian Watchdog: talking about Vancouver sales: But even more disturbing is this.

Detached -39.5%
Attached -23.6%
Apartment -32.3%

if Vancouver sales are still down in May , the decline in economic activity is going to rock Canadian politics. What will be worse is if GTA sales follow Vancouver.

Ex-Cowtown: Just look to the U.S. Once the bubble burst, even putting interest rates into a nose dive didn’t help one bit.

It helped to cushion the decline in economic activity. Rates went from 6% to 0% over the course of 2 years. We don’t have that cushion.

I think I need a back up plan. Like a trailer in Sunnyvale N.S.

#57 Paul on 05.02.12 at 11:23 pm

Any guess to how low this will go?

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11496858&PidKey=633614813

Current Price $288,500 Listed Jan 18/12
Original Price $337,000
Mar 28/12 $322,500 .
May 1/12 $288,500

#58 noodles 79 on 05.02.12 at 11:24 pm

Nice post. I watched the National last night and I found myself thinking, ‘ Hey thats what Garth’s been saying all along’.It was like comming to this blog. It was the first time in a long time, that I sat though a program about realestate, where I didnt yell out bull#%@t every few minutes.The panel was actualy telling it, like it is. The way you tell it.
The pin is getting very close to the balloon.

#59 Monster Cookie on 05.02.12 at 11:30 pm

#45 The Iceman on 05.02.12 at 10:55 pm

Post #25…”The Gospel of Garth”.

My vote for “post of the year!” …split my sides laughing!

How useless my life must be if this pathetic blog is the only highlight of my day…keep it up boys and girls!
——
I liked it too except for the religious overtone.

#60 BPOE = Biggest POP On Earth on 05.02.12 at 11:40 pm

I took that from a blogger on [email protected] It’s the cold hard truth. BPOE #1 Will be known as number one in housing crash in the world. Toronto will try to crash harder then Biggest POP On Earth. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors. Maximum suckers have bought for maximum pain.

#61 Hillcat on 05.02.12 at 11:41 pm

BPOE, price without volume to support is a useless measure of value. Need a little refresher on market dynamics.

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.02.12 at 11:43 pm

Another house re-priced by a ridiculous amount:

C2344724 – M3H – 5 DELLBANK RD Toronto, Ontario
Apr 25: $749,900
May 2: $929,000

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11842203&PidKey=-578595946

This bubble seems to be bringing out the wonderful ethics of many in the realtor community.

#63 joey jo jo on 05.02.12 at 11:52 pm

The Story about Andy isn’t BS! I make 110k and have no interest in buying (right now). I sold last year and am banking/investing what I’d be spending on interest, strata fees, etc. I rent a 700sq\Ft apartment near Shawnessy and only pay $1300. There are lots of rentals for under 2k. I have friends renting the main floor of a west side house (near arbutus) for $1900. And once all these new condos are finished there will be lots more for rent.

#64 Keith in Calgary on 05.02.12 at 11:54 pm

I just came back from a week long business trip in Nanaimo on Sunday. Now, I fully realize that it’s not Vancouver, but it is close enough to relate to.

Sort of…..

Oh well……

In the downtown core (FWIW) as I walked along the streets a couple of nights in a row, I couldn’t help but notice several trendy looking shops and bars had closed for business and were for lease. In fact, I’d say that about 1 in every 6 to 8 store fronts I passed were empty and available along a number of blocks in the best part of the central area of the city. I think that they should call the city “Motelmo” because that is all that seems to be there (besides the usual national franchise chains that opened up during the boom) and are supposed to be supported by a reliance on the apparently non-existent tourism trade that has all but dried up (if it ever really was there at all on day one).

Every morning our group (there were 4 of us from YYC) would enter any of the 2-3 different Tim Horton’s along the highway on the way to our business meetings and the look of sheer shock and horror on the face of the clerk at being overrun by the “teeming throng” was just too much !! LOL !! They should come here and see what a Timmies is really like during rush hour. Enter any Tim Horton’s here in YYC and it’s staffed by hustling foreign workers imported on a special visa just for the job that the locals won’t do @ $10 an hour. In Nanaimo the Tim’s employees looked like a meeting of the Harper Valley PTA……….an economic sign of the times I guess…..and they’re just 15 minutes away on Air Canada Jazz from the “BEST CITY IN THE WORLD”…….not my words….LOL !!!

#65 Nate dee o double on 05.02.12 at 11:57 pm

BPOE, you are hilarious! You should take your act to a comedy club on amateur night. I’m sure you’ll have the entire place cracking up. Do you live in the same city that I do? Just look around, the only sold signs I see have been there for months. Half keeled over, one side hanging by a thread. It’s done. Maybe you could start your own blog and your Mommy upstairs could read it every night and pat you on the head for doing such a good job.

#66 J.F. on 05.02.12 at 11:58 pm

Everyone seems to be focusing on “$1850 for a 3 bdrm in Kits”. Really? Are we all that jaded? Kitsilano used to be the stomping grounds for working class greek and italian immigrants. UBC students could rent the basement for $600/month. 33 foot lots were $300k when the market was healthy. Now we balk at $1850 per month being too cheap for a crappy apartment. In a world of $7.00 coffees and $18.00 martinis, it does sound too cheap. It’s all relative.

#67 Derek R on 05.03.12 at 12:07 am

#44 TaxHaven on 05.02.12 at 10:54 pm wrote:
Waiting anxiously for soaring unemployment stats.

Canada’s economy isn’t real. Pigs can’t fly.

Oh, it’s real alright but the unemployment follows the debt slowdown by 6-9 months. At least according to Prof Steve Keen, the economist who predicted the GFC.

So just hold on. You’ll get your wish. When people stop taking out mortgage debt and HELOCs, it will be less than a year before people start losing jobs.

The only thing that would stop that is an increase in government debt to fill the gap left by the reduction in private debt or a radical change in the tax and benefits system. And you know that neither of those is going to happen under the current government.

If only it weren’t so.

#68 Harlee on 05.03.12 at 12:24 am

Change it to BBOE : the Biggest Bubble on Earth.

#69 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.03.12 at 12:33 am


As the SS Titanic sinks, with Captain Carney and First Office F in charge, it is cleaning its colon out nicely, leaving it in good shape and ready to be used by the next bunch of nincompoops, incl. BPOE.

Enjoy the slide, gennelmen!
*
#25 The Gospel of GARTH — Excellent piece!
*
iShares Claymore = ? Bank Fees Don’t feed the wealthy; Retraining Money available; Liquidmetal Apple will use it for something; Changing World; Destruction Spain and Italy, plus Spain and Ireland; F5 Tornado vs. F9 Monkey; EZone Confiscating assets? 20 Predictions from smart people that never happened; April in Europe; JC Penny and Sears Brothers in arms? And this; Gary, Ind. Wasteland; Three triggers for next recession; T. Boone Pickens and the Koch Bros.; Factory Orders drop and Euro factories decline while Asia rises; Conrad Black Can’t have it both ways; Predictable? Unpredictable, more likely; ECB in Zombieland; Visa and MasCard profits nicely up; German Inflation; Euro area unemployment hits record high, and this.

Tax Credit Crunch; Boomers In worse shape than previously thought; Walmart Two ways consumers are paying for their mistakes; Student Loan (debt), meet SS; Avon decliniing slowly; Robotic Farmers Guess that’s why the feds. are wiping out family farms; NAU and One World Govt. The best laid plans, etc.; 19:42 clip Interesting read as well; Preparing before things go boom; Fiscal Cliff and we’re falling off of it.
*
Soccer Astonishing goal from last night’s Chelsea vs. Newcastle game; 0:15 clip Cdn. toilet and rider fastest in world (at least we’re good for something!); Disasters which could sink humanity; Carbohydrates for the brain; Hoarding or cluttering up one’s life; Visualization Techniques Art is not everyone’s cup of tea, but this is good; Mozilla Good on them for telling it like it is; Neocons create their own FFs to justify state surveillance, and New E.O. from Obomba brings NAU one step closer; Nuke threat from Germany?

#70 Dan in Victoria on 05.03.12 at 12:35 am

@32
Spriuk=shoot your yap off

#71 Interesting Times on 05.03.12 at 12:36 am

Get out there and start low balling the RE prices. Just go on MLS and email the listing agent. If agent seems desperate, only then go see the property. Tough times are coming for all! 50% crash coming to many areas in Canada! 70% of Canadians are living pay cheque to pay cheque! We are screwed! Remember a RE agent is only a used car salesperson!

#72 BPOE$$$$ on 05.03.12 at 12:37 am

We have just purchased a 75 year old 1800 square foot house on a 33 foot lot in the prestigious West Point Grey area of the BPOE for the bargain price of $2,300,000

The previous owner had purchased the house in 1969 for $38,500 and we are assured of having an asset to bequeath to our children in 2054 that will be worth in excess of $132,400,000.

So suck on that equity hype artists, rental scum and assorted peasants.

#73 ozy - will they jail the minister if bubble pops? on 05.03.12 at 12:45 am

Will they jail the ministers (finance, bank of canada, prime) if the “non-existing” bubble pops?

Or only after NDP gets 99% of the popular vote (the poor)?

#74 getreal-tor on 05.03.12 at 12:55 am

#62 TO Bubble Boy

I spoke to the selling agent of that property… He said the price difference is due to the hand blown Murano glass used for the backsplash that the owners flew in. FedEx ain’t cheap.

#75 Devore on 05.03.12 at 12:57 am

“Too much reliance on housing appreciation for wealth accumulation and retirement security is very dangerous.”

Same Sherry Cooper who for months has been crowing about the growing Canadian household wealth and the growing asset-side of household balance sheets, vast majority of it from real estate prices?

Pretty soon she’ll be screeching at everyone “I told you so! Just as I predicted.”

#76 Don on 05.03.12 at 1:07 am

#58 noodles 79 on 05.02.12 at 11:24 pm Nice post. I watched the National last night and I found myself thinking, ‘ Hey thats what Garth’s been saying all along’.It was like comming to this blog. It was the first time in a long time, that I sat though a program about realestate.

****
Yah I know what you mean…it’s been a long time since I have seen the truth be told. It concerns me to a point where I am looking for the tsunami in the back ground. Why advertise the truth now, unless it is inevitable.

#77 Ronaldo on 05.03.12 at 1:11 am

Watching the CBC Panel last night with Peter Mansbridge. Got a kick out of Patti Croft’s answer to whether she thought housing was in a bubble. Just like Sherry Cooper she could not utter the word bubble only that it may just need a bit of deflating. It was quite laughable really. The other dudes had no problem saying that it was bubbling. How could they not? Garth has been telling them now for the past few years. Patti goes on to say at the end of the interview that a house she bought for 300 grand is now worth over a million and she says thats crazy. Yet, she doesn’t figure were in a bubble yet. Totally amazing. She actually looked quite terrified. I believe she also said that she may look at selling her place and rent, did she not? Must have been reading your blog Garth.

#78 Sherry Cooper on 05.03.12 at 1:12 am

Giant Moen Faucet?

You can get those things to vibrate with the right H/C mix

#79 Devore on 05.03.12 at 1:17 am

#3 $$$BPOE#1

http://vancouverisawesome.com/2009/09/16/everythings-going-to-be-allright/

Rennie’s gift to Vancouver.

#80 Hoof-Hearted on 05.03.12 at 1:22 am

Yeah well here in Richmond they are still cranking them out….

Hi rises, Condos, SFH…..you name it

Those are the ones gonna get interesting, probably paid top $ for land etc….and the profit has already evaporated.

Can expect to see Courts clogged with all types of lawsuits.

#81 Devore on 05.03.12 at 1:50 am

#30 Canadian Watchdog

On average, there was 30% less money circulating in the market during April. This is not a good sign considering it’s peak season. If sales don’t pick up this month, the entire market will plummet going into the summer.

More importantly (well, for SOME anyways) there are more realtors today than 1 year ago, almost 1000 more. Don’t have exact numbers, because the REBGV is one of those REBs that doesn’t publish their membership number with the monthly stats releases.

Any way you slice it, there is 30% less in commissions to divide up amongst all those professionals. A few BMW leases will get returned this year.

#82 BossHogg on 05.03.12 at 1:55 am

#51 Can it be? on 05.02.12 at 11:06 pm
The speculators are rushing to put their new shiny homes on the market ASAP!

One likely spec here, http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-Best-deal-for-1day-Final-call-45k-in-Equity-Best-Location-W0QQAdIdZ376520797

The gist of it is “I have a house which is still building and will be finished in first week of May 2012. For some reason I have to sell it asap. So, I can give $25-30k discount to a buyer who is ready to assign it this week.

– Big beautiful freehold townhouse – 2046sq ft, 2story .. Bigger than most Semi’s
– House is valued at $425-430k, and I will sell/assign it to you for $400k. *Further reduced – $395k* ** Finally reduced to $385k ****”

#83 Gandalf on 05.03.12 at 2:02 am

The Canary in the Australian coal mine just keeled over! How quickly things can turn….

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/genworth-fesses-up/

#84 Ogopogo on 05.03.12 at 2:09 am

My fave flipped crack shack in Kelowna is having an open house this weekend. After a $75K drop faithfully reported in stages here, I can’t wait to see how these greedy speckers will dump their frothy asset. I’m tempted to go there this weekend just to give them false hope. Maybe I’ll make them an offer….50% lower. If nothing else, it might put the seed of doubt in their heads, already reeling from the sudden drop in house horny Calgarians.

Someone said above they don’t wish harm on anyone. Neither do I. But after enduring so much abuse and invective as a renter I can’t help but get a bit giddy at the thought of this bubble popping. In three years I’ll begin to consider buying, IF…

#85 Devore on 05.03.12 at 2:14 am

I check up on my former condo building in Coal Harbor every couple of months, there are now a record number of listings (usually 2-3, now 8) including no fewer than 3 townhouses and 3 sub-penthouses.

#86 daystar on 05.03.12 at 2:31 am

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/5/2/Vancouver-housing-slows-to-a-crawl.aspx

Ah, yes, speak of the devil but look, see? Houses always go up!

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/4/27/March-home-prices-up-51-year-on-year-CREA.aspx

Bubbles? Not to worry our pretty little heads. Spain had a tiny housing bubble but they are pulling out quite nicely, its all perspective… :

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip669813

Hmmm… Spain’s public fiscal public deficit spending 6 to 7% of GDP, Canada has ran up 20% debt to GDP over the last 3 years fiscally, (seems like a long term pattern for F & H), thats small right? Our currency is going to keep climbing like housing forever does so everything is ok! Banking bailouts, our banks are in great shape! Ask these guys:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/4/30/A-secret-bailout-for-Canadian-banks.aspx

Why would Canadians at all worry about RE, Bank and government bailouts? Everything is great here. Why, RE construction only employ’s 1.4 million Canadians, so why would the real estate industry… and the banking industry… and maybe our own governments need a bailout? Spain is handling their housing bubble nicely (their unemployment is a mere 25%) so you see what harmless real estate bubbles do? We’ve got Harper and F who would never, ever steer us in harm’s way, we worry for nothing.

#87 Scott in Gibsons on 05.03.12 at 2:32 am

Obliterated Boomer wealth + $100 oil + rising taxes + reduced services + can’t afford to retire + economically destroyed youth + austerity + corporate takeover of governments + civil unrest + police state = Doomerville

#88 jr on 05.03.12 at 3:22 am

I live in kits and can confirm that 1850 is reasonable to rent a two / three bedroom place.. Might not be the newest unit but non the less you will be two minutes to the beach and 5 from downtown.
I pay 1450 for a newer unit and make similar money to Andy. Renting for the next few years is great!! Limits on how much rent can be raised, no stress over taxes or repairs – just the beach and the ladies to worry about!
Just don’t be a dumbass and invest your proceeds in a well balanced portfolio with the same diligence of paying down a mortgage.

#89 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 4:24 am

#7 $$$BPOE#1 on 05.02.12 at 9:22 pm
Does anyone really think Uncle Stephen Harper and his boys are going to commit financial suicide by disallowing the flow of foreign capital into Canada?
……………………………………………………………………….
China, India, where ever and what ever. Bubbles are voracious single celled creatures that consume all resources from everywhere and then crash. It is a simple story. Who buys with cash in a falling market at top prices? They amassed that cash somehow, unless it is illegal money, so they must have even a small amount of understanding of business and money. I mean really 1 million bucks for a house when minimum wage is $10, who are we kidding? BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. SALES ARE CRASHING ACROSS CANADA. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE AND $$$BPOE KNOWS IT. More cash from other countries will not change a thing.

#90 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 4:26 am

the 15% decline will turn out to be a media engineered bear trap

#91 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 4:32 am

#43 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.02.12 at 10:49 pm
David Dodge says no debt problem (unless unemployment spikes), and RE speculation is a foreign capital issue — not a mortgage issue.

Garth – I’m pretty sure Dodge knows what he’s talking about, and probably has less of a vested interest than someone like Carney or F or Bank Economists.

Any insights on why the Dodge interpretation of the debt bubble and housing balloon should be considered ‘wrong’ and Carney ‘right’?

Yes. He’s wrong. — Garth
……………………………………………………………………
Absolutely wrong and likely has a bunch of houses he is trying to flip before prices crash along with sales.

#92 RainCity on 05.03.12 at 4:47 am

To all of you stating that $1800 for 3 bedrooms in Kits is bogus, a ten minute scan of craigslist revealed these:

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2985414747.html

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2989255239.html

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2941139452.html

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2961701151.html

#93 P & T S on 05.03.12 at 5:25 am

Garth – in “Australianese” Spruikers are those (usually intimately connected with Real Estate) who perpetually “talk up” the Market, seemingly oblivious to price falls, passed-in Auction results, and other very clear indications that “it’s all about to go very horribly wrong!”

Just visit Bubblepedia and have a real “education” re. what’s happening Down Under. With the looming “Carbon Tax” the locals are getting quite excited (helped by regular News reports of significant job losses seemingly everywhere from Banking through Telecoms, to Transport)

Looks like Australia (“The Lucky Country”) has finally seen its luck run out . . . . .

#94 tiny bottoms on 05.03.12 at 6:00 am

A coworker here in Ottawa would not accept an offer for 20,000 less 1 month ago because she wanted to “break even” on the condo after 4 years. Now 2 more similir places pop up in the same building for 35,000 less and much better condition. Her agent was to get together so they can rethink their strategy. Hes not returned her calls for 3 days.

Another acquaintance listed their house for 600,000 6 weeks ago . The agent told them in will sell within a week. After 5 days 2 houses down the street in much better shape listed for 40,000 less. One sold already. The agent is coming tonight so they can “rethink” their strategy.LOL There is obviously only one strategy. Lower the price.

Seller Wars

#95 Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 05.03.12 at 6:17 am

#46 Furst

“I’ve even been invited to host a celebration at a Sunnyvale Trailer Park. Don’t know where that is but I’m obviously someone of importance now. FUURRRRST!!”

You have indeed! We just don’t invite any Tom, Dick or Harry to open up our festivities. I think we will make it sound like Ed McMahon’s heeeeeeere’s Johny intro of Johnny Carson. In fact you could, after introducing yourself to thunderous applause, introduce the debaters by saying, “our FUUUUUUURSSST speaker tonight will be…”. Sunnyvale BTW is in lovely Nova Scotia and you won’t need to know how to get here because all of our guest speakers are flown out here courtesy of the Sunnyvale Hedge Fund which our very own Ricky runs (he is having a crappy year mind you. He loaded up on Greek bonds but rest assured, even if I have to put your flight on Barb’s credit card, you will be flown out here at no expense to you.) Keep up the great work!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunnyvale_Trailer_Park

#96 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 6:33 am

#26 neta on 05.02.12 at 9:54 pm
Then he will jump into the political arena, all in white, leading Liberal assault on Harper government.
……………………………………………………………………..
The only way the Liberals will not get elected next election is if they associated themselves with one of the three horsemen of the apocalypse (It is not going to happen)

#97 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 6:40 am

#15 Smoking Man on 05.02.12 at 9:37 pm
Even the ridiculous over priced in long branch are sold.

They say I’m in Insane, only 3 red dots ( mls) in Longbranch south of lake shore left.

When treb issues sales for GTA, April numbers they will be out of the world.

I’m getting scared now.

Very bad for the long term.
…………………………………………………………………….
Nice hedge. Now I know you are a Queen high all in type I just have to play the odds and I will walk home with all you money (but its okay because you can get more much easier than I can).

#98 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 6:44 am

#4 GeneticistX on 05.02.12 at 9:18 pm
I will put in ONE bid, and I want it to be an open bid, in other words, i want all the others bidding on the property to be aware of what my offer is. I won’t get the property, but i want to see what $500k can get me in the big smoke (godless TO).
………………………………………………………………..
Dude do not do it now. There is a good chance you will get it. Wait until the wheels fall off man. BUYER BEWARE. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA.

#99 Q on 05.03.12 at 6:50 am

I too believe that the coming “correction” will more resemble a “bloodbath”. That being said, my wife and I agreed to buy a “stopgap” house (under $300k)to live in for a year or two, so she could nest, the puppy would have a backyard and I would hopefully eat less than $60k in the coming bloodbath. So Tuesday, we put an offer on a Brantford home. The home (1960s) had very little curb appeal, but a large and private backyard with pool. It was immaculate inside, although slightly dated and had all that we needed for now. The asking price was $290k and I offered $260. Mysteriously, another offer appeared between signing ours at 7pm and 8pm. As ours was cash and virtually unconditional, the vendors decided to work with us (agent knowing I would run at the first sign of bidding stupidity) and signed back (11:30pm)at $2000 less than asking. The interesting point here, is that the property (huge backyard and pool) is the main selling feature and the vendors want…no need…a December 1 close, meaning that it will be 13 months before you can enjoy the reason you purchased the place. Rather than waste time and kill trees, I spoke to the agent and against my better judgement, increased my offer $10k and agreed to close during Christmas season, informing her that this was absolutely my final offer (assesment is $265k and they paid $175k). The vendors countered with a $2K reduction, but wanted to keep the used washer/dryer ($1.5k for me to replace) essentially a $200-500 reduction. I passed. Unfortunately this will be a common story soon, the vendors will accept an offer for their asking, conditional upon the sale of the purchasers overpriced home. Sooner or later in this fragile daisy chain, somebody with actual money (as averse to entitlement and perceived equity) has to enter the game…or it’s all over. I would suggest that the music is about to stop, there is only one chair left and 8 or 9 people looking for a seat. Upside is, the conditional deal they accept will fall apart in the daisy chain, they will have to walk from the home they bought and I will buy a similar home for $60k -$75k less from the bank…..and be happily installed by Christmas.

#100 Andrew Norman on 05.03.12 at 6:54 am

Canadian real estate did not collapse in 2007 like US real estate did.

Canadian real estate prices did fall with the markets.

And the markets aren’t looking to healthy these days.

http://DELETED

Remember what I told you about coming here to market your site? — Garth

#101 House on 05.03.12 at 7:03 am

We have a housing bubble and F and Markie speak in the media about there “might” be too much debt, but if drivers start going 150 kph on the 401 they are issued tickets. Shouldn’t government just make comments in the media that speeds might be too high. How inconsistent.

#102 eddy on 05.03.12 at 7:07 am

It looks like the politicians and MSM have been given new scripts to read. The BC realtor doesn’t have a script so ‘it’s always time to buy’. Conflicting advice from serial liars. It’s as confusing as the 911 media hoax ( CNN’s Jamie Mc|I|ntyre didn’t have a script and BBCs Jane Standley’s script came 20 minutes early).

#103 Charles Ponzi on 05.03.12 at 7:17 am

We have a dangerous addiction to low interest rates.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3987478.html

#104 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 7:34 am

$1850 is an insane amount for rent. rent will cave as well. it is pure bubble mechanics

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 05.03.12 at 7:36 am

Andy’s question: “Is owning a home in Vancouver ever going to be feasible for a single guy like me, even assuming there’s a 15% correction and assuming my income doesn’t drastically increase? Will it ever happen?”

Answer: No! Guys like Andy and myself can never afford to live in Canada without a 6 figure or better income and for the most part the labor market denies that option.

He has a six-figure income. Guess it’s only you. — Garth

#106 Aussie Roy on 05.03.12 at 7:41 am

Aussie Headlines

Activity in the services sector has reported its weakest performance in three years during April, a private survey shows.

The Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Australian Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell 7.4 points to 39.6 points in April.

A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/service-sector-activity-slumps-to-threeyear-low-20120503-1y0a9.html#ixzz1to1Tl2CS

One large well known Victorian Provincial City, which has an average number of house sales of 35 properties per month (on a population of around 80,000 people) only received 12 property sales for the month of April 2012. This must be the lowest on record.

Its so bad in fact that one discount real estate agency has already closed up shop.

http://realestatenavigator.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/stop-press-property-sales-crash-in-regional-victoria-april-2012/

More jobs go

Major retailers should be blamed for the collapse of transport company 1st Fleet overnight, which has left more than 600 workers across Australia out of a job, according to the Transport Workers Union.

The union’s national secretary Tony Sheldon said supermarket giants such as Coles dominated the market and forced down prices across the transport industry, which ‘‘squeezed the life out of Australian truckies and their suppliers’’.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/union-slams-retail-giants-over-1st-fleet-failure-20120503-1y018.html#ixzz1to22y4km

#107 Mr Buyer on 05.03.12 at 7:42 am

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.02.12 at 11:43 pm
Another house re-priced by a ridiculous amount:

C2344724 – M3H – 5 DELLBANK RD Toronto, Ontario
Apr 25: $749,900
May 2: $929,000
………………………………………………………………………
This repricing maneuver is to allow a surrendering of up to 200k off the price. An interesting tactic but will likely not make any difference (this house will likely find the same level after the crash that it would have prior to the price hike. the fall will be a little greater)

#108 F&D on 05.03.12 at 7:59 am

@ 47
You don’t have to wait for long. Just read the 1st & 2nd paragraph.
http://tinyurl.com/83j2pgt

#109 Aussie Al on 05.03.12 at 8:27 am

“We colonials need a translation of ‘spruik.’ Thanks. — Garth”

Are you fair dinkum mater? You colonials don’t know the meaning of spruik??? Here you go mate!

spruik (ˈspruːɪk) — vb
archaic , slang ( Austral ) ( intr ) to speak in public (used esp of a showman or salesman

#110 Aussie Al on 05.03.12 at 8:32 am

For the linguistically challenged I shall use spruik in a sentence. “Brad Lamb spruiked the gathered crowd of CONDO ZOMBIES and when he was finished, they all lined up to buy.”

#111 Condo Madness on 05.03.12 at 8:34 am

The end is nigh. Friend A went down to stop friend B who was in line to buy a condo in downtown Toronto. By the time friend A got to the front of the line, he signed up to buy 2 condos!

#112 Carney, Flahery and Harper are Spherical Bastards on 05.03.12 at 8:38 am

DELETED

#113 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 8:40 am

I finally get it.

Everyone on this blog is in reality, totally house-horny. Otherwise, why come here consistently? Admit it.

…O.K., I’ll go first.

Hello, my name Market Bull; and I’m addicted to real estate.

#114 Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 05.03.12 at 8:44 am

#72 BPOE$$$$

“So suck on that equity hype artists, rental scum and assorted peasants.”

Would you include trailer park supervisors and trailer park inhabitants in the above list?

#115 stickler on 05.03.12 at 8:56 am

@ #7 $$$BPOE#1
“Go to West Van the richest zipcode in Canada”

>> Love your made up real estate facts…the fact is your West Van is not in the top 5 richest Zipcodes…

Top 5 richest “zipcodes” in Canada:

1 M4N Lawrence Park
2 H3Y Westmount
3 M4W Rosedale
4 M2L St. Andrew-Windfields East
5 T3Z Springbank

Bueller?… Bueller?… Bueller?

#116 bruce corel on 05.03.12 at 8:59 am

Vancouver doesnt matter. Southern Ontario and GTA is safe and will never crash. GTA is hub of Canada and your lucky to have a home here. Prices are still low and anyone wishing to own better do it now. Prices will double
within 1 to 2 years. Its a license to print money. GTA is the fastest growing POP. on the planet. You can take that to the bank. I also have property in FLORIDA if anyone is interested very cheap. FLA has no where to go but up.

#117 John Berkowitz on 05.03.12 at 9:04 am

OK I have to admit that the situation is getting crazy every year. I hope Garth has any predictions for the next year, because I don´t. The only thing I´m expecting is that the government finally starts the regulation or moderation of the household debt.
So let´s see what will happen in the next year..

#118 getreal-tor on 05.03.12 at 9:15 am

#93 tiny bottoms on 05.03.12 at 6:00 am
There is obviously only one strategy. Lower the price.

It’s easy to get the price up – buy up all the other properties at 100k above asking and then flip them at an additional 100k. This way you increase your own properties value and you can then also flip the other properties within weeks for a good profit.

For more sound investment strategies, come to my seminar. A lot of your friends will tell you, ‘Don’t come to the seminar. It’s a get-rich-quick plan.’ Well, tell them, it is a get-rich-quick plan because life is too short to get rich slow.

Are you man enough to get off your lazy North American ass to go to my seminars?

Signed
Tom Vu

#119 clo38 on 05.03.12 at 9:17 am

Wow.. that house in Toronto on Dellbank (TO bubble boy post) is a spectacular display of the greed that is going on right now. It also displays the HUGE waste of time and energy for people who put in offers near or at the asking price. People take off work, call their bankers, family and friends. They sit and wait, sometimes for a day or two in anticipation. They have pre-home inspections done and whatever else they might have to do and finally they put in an offer. Maybe its at asking price with a home inspection.

AND POW.

The realtor says no. The sellers say no. Buyers confused, angry. Maybe they waive all of the conditions and offer a bit over asking.

No. We’re looking for more.

How could they know that the people were expecting 180K more than asking price. Stupid? Crazy? Greedy? Unethical? Confusing? Anger Inducing?

All of the above warrant a YES.

Any buyer involved is sickened by the process. No interest rate changes here, no financial crisis, no CMHC rule changes, no worry about a housing crash. Just disgusted and fed up. It changes the mindset of buyers in the region.

We are seeing this everywhere in the GTA

#120 AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 9:21 am

The fall of 2007 to the crash in 2008 was the peak in the Okanagan. Overall prices have tumbled 15% to 25% since the crash. The 5 year mortgage term for those who bought in 2007 is now up for renewal and folks it is not pretty, especially the condo market. It is sad actually, seeing so many good folks with a negative equity . Here comes the next wave of foreclosures.

#121 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 9:22 am

Looks like Flaherty’s C-38 Bill has some new rules for gold bugs.

Division 16 of Part 4 amends the Currency Act to clarify certain provisions that relate to the calling in and the redemption of coins.

388. Subsection 8(4) of the Currency Act is repealed:
Current: 8(4) A coin that has been called in is not legal tender.

389. Section 9 of the Act is replaced by the following:
Current: 9. (1) The Governor in Council may, by proclamation, call in coins of any date and de-nomination.
Replaced with: 9. (1) The Governor in Council may, “by order”, call in coins of any date and denomination.

9.01 (1) The Governor in Council may make regulations for the redemption by the Minister of coins of the currency of Canada that are or that have at any time been current in Canada. (2) Payments for the redemption of coins, including related costs, shall be made out of the Consolidated Revenue Fund on the authorization of the Minister.

Full bill here: http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?Docid=5524772&file=4

#122 Anon on 05.03.12 at 9:23 am

“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway

We’re entering the sudden phase at the moment.

#123 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 9:35 am

#119 AACI Okanagan

“It is sad actually, seeing so many good folks with a negative equity”

So many say that. Why isn’t there the same sense of sadness when renters with their nest egg in the stock market are down? Investments go up and down. Not sure why real estate is expected to be any different. If it’s a long term investment, expect to be down at some point, but eventually up. “Negative equity” is to be expected at some point ESPECIALLY with 0% down. Just like stocks.

#124 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 9:38 am

#111 Carney, Flahery and Harper are Spherical Bastards

“DELETED”

You may have deleted it Garth but I think he got his point across ;).

Oh my… — Garth

#125 Daisy Mae on 05.03.12 at 9:39 am

“Suddenly government officials, like the finance minister and the bank governor, are working overtime to kill expectation and murder house lust…”

*********************************

Well, their concern is “too little, too late”.

Why, oh why, wouldn’t they listen to YOU? Wow, it must be maddening for you at this moment in time — having been the ONLY voice of reason. Just unbelievable.

Politicians the world over are NOT ‘leaders’ — they are ‘followers’ –unable to think for themselves, all making the identical mistakes. Scary!

#126 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.03.12 at 9:41 am

#64 Keith in Calgary on 05.02.12 at 11:54 pm

You did do “business” in Nanaimo. Not all bad.
Here, in Nanaimo, we drink McCaffe. Got tired of Tim’s Javex aftertaste.
As for the small retail shops, it’s pretty much the same all over Canada.
Did drive around Calgary a week ago and saw the same thing that you saw in Nanaimo.
The big difference is that in Calgary you cannot walk the street.
As for the motels, they are there for a reason. Check it out during the summer. We have much more to offer than an island in the Bow river with an overpriced bridge. In the summer you can walk across the river.
Been in the SW Calgary at night?

#127 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.03.12 at 9:45 am

#71 Interesting Times on 05.03.12 at 12:36 am

You make the used car salesman look bad.

#128 Jamaican_Gal on 05.03.12 at 9:46 am

#78 Sherry Cooper
“Giant Moen Faucet?

You can get those things to vibrate with the right H/C mix.”

I visit this blog everyday because there is always something new to learn…:)

#129 Grantmi on 05.03.12 at 9:49 am

Freddie Mac Posts Smaller 1Q Profit; Requests More Government Aid

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120503-712425.html

Oh oh!!!!

#130 Doug in London on 05.03.12 at 9:52 am

It seems to me that not long ago Sherry Cooper was telling us everything’s fine, nothing to worry about, and that a real estate correction won’t happen here because we’re somehow “smarter” than the Americans. What’s changed? It’s obvious most analysts (unlike Garth, who saw this correction coming 2 years ago) just go with the herd rather than think it through for themselves.

Andy Calls said: but I figure if they only want me for my giant Moen faucet,” he says, disturbingly, “they’re the wrong type of girl anyway.” My thoughts exactly. I would rather stay single than marry someone who is a masochist and wants to be a slave to excessive debt for buying an illiquid asset that will likely fall in value, be less mobile, and more stressed out.

#131 Smoking Man on 05.03.12 at 9:52 am

DELETED

#132 Bigrider on 05.03.12 at 9:55 am

An update on the RE101-gottohumpahoma virus.

Health Canada recommending a full quarantine on all foreign capital entering the country to purchase RE

#133 eaglebay - Parksville on 05.03.12 at 9:56 am

#86 Scott in Gibsons on 05.03.12 at 2:32 am
“Obliterated Boomer wealth + $100 oil + rising taxes + reduced services + can’t afford to retire + economically destroyed youth + austerity + corporate takeover of governments + civil unrest + police state = Doomerville”
_______________
Glad I don’t live in Gibsons, the “Sunshine Coast”.

#134 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 9:58 am

#238John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 12:07 am
#228 Daisy Mae on 05.02.12 at 9:00 pm

“Isn’t this contradictory?

Did I say I admired his ethics? — Garth”

I admit I am also having trouble reconciling the two — do his success and entrepreneurship not derive from his (apparent lack of) ethics?

Don’t confuse his gregarious approach to business with a wanton lack of ethics. Nor should you justify your envy of his success by assuming he must have derived from his (apparent lack of) ethics.

Mr. Lamb is a promoter and promote he does very well. He may be too gregarious for my liking but aren’t all performers. While he may not be the kind of person you would seek to help you buy a home he is most definitely the kind of person most seek to have help sell their property. Most want an aggressive agent who is going to get the job done… not someone they might want to be friends with.

#20Chaddywack on 05.02.12 at 9:43 pm
I don’t know anymore. It seems that every car I see in downtown Vancouver is worth 60k or higher. One of my buddies told me “Dude! you have no idea how much money is in this city.”

I’m starting to wonder if these Bimmers, Porches, and Bentleys were all bought on HELOCs…

The average household income is $83,130. — Garth

Dudes! You have no idea how much money is in that city.

#25The Gospel of GARTH on 05.02.12 at 9:53 pm
Garth 2:1 “And the crowd of blog dogs stood before the mount to hear the words of the bearded mystic oracle. The skies darkened and the sun did not give her light. Thunder roared and lightning flashed across the sky. A hush came over the crowd as the bearded oracle prepared to speak. Then he began:

Blessed are the patient and the liquid for they shall inherit the cities of this land,
Blessed are those who cry out for real estate sanity, they shall be rewarded,
Blessed are those who have rented and suffered the abuse of their friends and families for they shall see their reward,

You are showing your true colours… jealousy of those who can afford that which you cannot and want of revenge for your depravation. If you are not happy with your lot in life you need to do something about it. Waiting for “your turn” will accomplish nothing. There is no line-up for a free lunch. You are deluded my friend.

Learn to be content with that which you have and living in this country you must realize you have more than many could dream of having. We live in Disneyland. If you are not happy with what you have and where you are don’t think “I cannot afford better” but rather shift your mind a tad and think instead “How can I afford better?” If you are not prepared to work for it then you relegate yourself to your lot in life and for your peace of mind must learn to accept only that which you are prepared to exert the effort to achieve.

So many on this blog like you though… waiting, waiting, waiting… doing nothing but waiting for your “someday” that may never come. What a waste of your life. We live in Disneyland and you are pouting. }:-(

#36B P O E ?? on 05.02.12 at 10:32 pm
Best Place on Equity until it runs out.

#81Devore on 05.03.12 at 1:50 am
#30 Canadian Watchdog

On average, there was 30% less money circulating in the market during April. This is not a good sign considering it’s peak season. If sales don’t pick up this month, the entire market will plummet going into the summer.

More importantly (well, for SOME anyways) there are more realtors today than 1 year ago, almost 1000 more. Don’t have exact numbers, because the REBGV is one of those REBs that doesn’t publish their membership number with the monthly stats releases.

Any way you slice it, there is 30% less in commissions to divide up amongst all those professionals. A few BMW leases will get returned this year.

Congratulations on a more true assessment of the market conditions!

#83Ogopogo on 05.03.12 at 2:09 am
My fave flipped crack shack in Kelowna is having an open house this weekend. After a $75K drop faithfully reported in stages here, I can’t wait to see how these greedy speckers will dump their frothy asset. I’m tempted to go there this weekend just to give them false hope. Maybe I’ll make them an offer….50% lower. If nothing else, it might put the seed of doubt in their heads, already reeling from the sudden drop in house horny Calgarians.

Someone said above they don’t wish harm on anyone. Neither do I. But after enduring so much abuse and invective as a renter I can’t help but get a bit giddy at the thought of this bubble popping. In three years I’ll begin to consider buying, IF…

Oh envious one… you are sadly mistaken. I am quite familiar with that “crack shack” ( MLS 10045597 link to REALTOR.ca listing http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11820975&PidKey=-1899595922 ) and believe a sale is not so far off on the horizon as you think. The seller bought it for $340,000in March of 2011 and put probably $100,000 into it in improvements, is going to pay REALTORS something to the tune of $20,000 upon the sale. Should they not be entitled to a $40,000 or $50,000 reward for their risk and efforts? Their risk being that they may not sell as you believe.

#135 Mr. Anderson on 05.03.12 at 10:00 am

#72 BPOE$$$$

Dude, what are you smoking?

#136 Daisy Mae on 05.03.12 at 10:03 am

“Well, little-spigot buddy….”

***************************

LOL You’re gooood! You should be a writer. Oh, right! You are.

When is your latest book being released? I keep checking Chapters…

#137 cramar on 05.03.12 at 10:06 am

Canadian Banks Dominate World’s 10 Strongest Banks. Must be true since Bloomberg sez it! Maybe those bank preferreds are the place to invest your RE windfall!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-02/canadians-dominate-world-s-10-strongest-banks.html

Have I not been telling you this? — Garth

#138 TaxHaven on 05.03.12 at 10:10 am

@#67 Derek R

Agreed. But I still maintain Canada’s economy won’t stand up in a stiff breeze.

Since I moved back here from overseas, I’ve stared in awe at how Canadians blithely spend, spend, spend. They think nothing of paying $2-4 a cup of coffee several times a day. They all drive MASSIVE new pickup trucks that EAT gas. They “drop in” to restaurants on a whim. They fill their shopping baskets with expensive prepared salads, deli items, steaks, snack foods and bottled water. Taking on debt never fazes them: they are assuming their jobs will go on forever. They “pay” for everything with credit cards, debit cards, checks…

The slightest PUFF from the winds of competition – or any increase in costs at all – would blow away half the businesses – and jobs – in Canada. They simply cost three times as much to run as a similar business in many other countries. With the new “minimum wage” of C$10.25/hr. here (B.C.), hiring anyone now costs approximately three times what it does in Taiwan – yet living standards are at least as good there…

Take Tim Horton’s. Expensive, on a worldwide basis. The business RUNS on discretionary income. Moreover, it runs on the willingness of Canadians to BORROW. What happens when they can’t? What wil be among the first things to go?

Would someone here tell me why things in this country can go on indefinitely costing two and three times what they do elsewhere, with no repercussions?

UNSUSTAINABLE.

Tanning salons. Motor home sales. Real estate. Nail salons. Restaurants. Dodge truck dealers. 7-11.

When this is over they’ll ALL be buying only vegetables, collecting firewood and looking for stuff on sale – and (maybe) enjoying a nice of home-brewed coffee…

#139 Daisy Mae on 05.03.12 at 10:14 am

This is Wonderland on 05.02.12 at 9:20 pm

“Fecund, Garth?

Jesus! Now I have to start looking words up to read this pathetic blog.”

**************************

Join the club! LOL Garth does this on purpose! I’m positive!

#140 bigrider on 05.03.12 at 10:26 am

Walked into a sextoy shop Toronto yesterday.

Some new toys, all the rage.

Granite vibrators and lifesize dolls made of hardwood.

#141 Q on 05.03.12 at 10:27 am

Funny how Sherry Pooper, mini F, Harpo et al…the ones that helped create the coming mess, now do a psuedo subtle 180….just so they are positioned to say “I told you so…didn’t we warn you?”. The people that predicted and warned correctly, resulting in insults and derision from the biased status quo, will of course not receive the accolades due them…so in preparation for the coming bloodbath, I say” you were right Garth, thanks for trying”.

#142 AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 10:31 am

#122 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 9:35 am

So many say that. Why isn’t there the same sense of sadness when renters with their nest egg in the stock market are down? Investments go up and down. Not sure why real estate is expected to be any different. If it’s a long term investment, expect to be down at some point, but eventually up. “Negative equity” is to be expected at some point ESPECIALLY with 0% down. Just like stocks.
———————————————————–

IMO, there is a difference between a real investor/speculator over that of a family/person that buys a home for a principal residence. If you are investing whether in the stock market or real estate, then you take the risks attached to that investment. If you told me you lost all your money in the stock market I would feel bad for you but not as bad as I would if you told you lost it all in your principal home. Call me old school, but that is the way I feel..

#143 Grantmi on 05.03.12 at 10:33 am

#57 Paul on 05.02.12 at 11:23 pm
Any guess to how low this will go?

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11496858&PidKey=633614813

Current Price $288,500 Listed Jan 18/12
Original Price $337,000
Mar 28/12 $322,500 .
May 1/12 $288,500

Paul…. Come on. It’s Duncan for Christ sakes.

Really…. Really!!

#144 daystar on 05.03.12 at 10:35 am

#127 Jamaican_Gal on 05.03.12 at 9:46 am

Me too. :)

#145 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 10:59 am

Where exactly does Sherry Cooper shit on real estate in her article.

Comprehension, or bias? I wonder.

It’s all about the weighting of your personal financial portfolio, isn’t it?

“Too much reliance on housing appreciation for wealth accumulation and retirement security is very dangerous.” Yep, nothing about real estate there. — Garth

#146 Steven Rowlandson on 05.03.12 at 11:06 am

He has a six-figure income. Guess it’s only you. — Garth

Bad news for you Garth, I am not the only one without a 6 figure or better income. There are plenty of skilled tradesmen, laborers and other workers that make 4 digit and low 5 digit incomes… Try getting a non union carpenter laborer job in Ontario for a summer or work at Royal oak stairs in Newmarket assembling stairs and you will find out what the real world is like. It might make you feel like a man but the pay won’t. Oh I forgot to add to the challenge. Set aside your worldly goods , property and money and start from scratch with nothing more than your clothes, car and a weeks pay of $500 and see how you do for 3 months living in an apartment. Set aside your wife and family and refuse all financial aid from them and any friends you have.
No Cheating Garth. Tell us all about your adventure in the real world when your done.

That’s a winning attitude. — Garth

#147 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 11:06 am

“TREB reported 10,350 transactions through the Toronto MLS system in April 2012. This level of sales was 18 per cent
higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011.”

“The average price for April 2012 was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent. Price growth was strongest for single-detached
homes. The condominium apartment segment experienced price growth of four per cent.”

This is nothing to be happy about. — Garth

#148 Daisy Mae on 05.03.12 at 11:07 am

#59 MONSTER COOKIE: “I liked it, too, except for the religious overtone.”

****************************

That’s precisely what makes it hilarious.

#149 Oceanside on 05.03.12 at 11:07 am

#80 Hoof-Hearted on 05.03.12 at 1:22 am
Yeah well here in Richmond they are still cranking them out….

Hi rises, Condos, SFH…..you name it
____________________________________________

Richman has 2,505 active listings today and only 55 sales in the last 7 days. Crank is turning pretty slowly.

#150 Rob_M on 05.03.12 at 11:12 am

@Canadian Watchdog

Do you mind explaining what this means for gold bugs?

==============================

#120 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 9:22 am
Looks like Flaherty’s C-38 Bill has some new rules for gold bugs.

Division 16 of Part 4 amends the Currency Act to clarify certain provisions that relate to the calling in and the redemption of coins.

388. Subsection 8(4) of the Currency Act is repealed:
Current: 8(4) A coin that has been called in is not legal tender.

389. Section 9 of the Act is replaced by the following:
Current: 9. (1) The Governor in Council may, by proclamation, call in coins of any date and de-nomination.
Replaced with: 9. (1) The Governor in Council may, “by order”, call in coins of any date and denomination.

9.01 (1) The Governor in Council may make regulations for the redemption by the Minister of coins of the currency of Canada that are or that have at any time been current in Canada. (2) Payments for the redemption of coins, including related costs, shall be made out of the Consolidated Revenue Fund on the authorization of the Minister.

Full bill here: http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?Docid=5524772&file=4
.

#151 Ian - Ottawa on 05.03.12 at 11:20 am

Hi Garth,

I’m wondering now that were starting to see movement towards a “Balanced” market, however long that takes. Do you think you would have time, perhaps once a month to list the days of inventory for each major metro, i.e. VAN, CGY, EDM, T.O., OTT, MTL, HAX ? Would be a big request, but maybe you have this data sitting around in the back of your Hummer!

#152 Rob_M on 05.03.12 at 11:20 am

@Canadian Watchdog
i think they only did that because of changes to the penny. Dont think that changes anything for gold maples.

#153 truth hammer on 05.03.12 at 11:26 am

If the market appears to develop amnesia for a short while after F and Carnage Carney have done nothing to rates…then we will have seen the temporary effect of suasion on the markets…….temporary because at ZIRP rates the borrowing will rev right back up again in no time. Remember…the feds are trying to tell you the market is in for a rate hike….but in fact they have done nothing but mount a publicity campaign while doing nothing about the root cause of the hyperinflation. This market will continue to inflate and if you don’t get in now…you’ll be priced out forever….

Seriously though……..no rate changes mean no change in the market aside from this temporary malaise. The jawboning coming from Carnage and F is just an exercise in mass confusion….appear to be concerned…while in fact pandering away like a minority goverment in the wings….it’s so…….Harper…..no bog decisions….just creepy little moves from the shadows…grasping for power….knowing he’s pulled a fast one and is afraid to stick his head up for fear of being caught…..like a kid stealing candy from his mommies purse.

#154 Sid on 05.03.12 at 11:38 am

Garth…I come to your blog everyday since I sold my primary residence and investment properties. Aside from the value I get from your insight on the state of RE in Canada, I look forward to the shrewd selection of the picture you select for your entries. My questions is: Do you select the picture first, then the subject of the blog or is it the other way around?

You mean, does the tail wag the dog? Or does the wag tailor the dog? — Garth

#155 Doug in London on 05.03.12 at 11:40 am

@Tax haven, post #137 who said: Since I moved back here from overseas, I’ve stared in awe at how Canadians blithely spend, spend, spend.
I see the same thing, and assumed these people have more money than they know what to do with. I compare them to a hydroelectric power plant when there is far more water coming down the river than can be put through the turbines to produce power. The station operator opens the sluice gates so the excess water can go down the spill way just to get rid of it. However, if I am wrong and all this excess is paid for with debt rather than surplus cash, all could get ugly if the economy goes into a downturn. You’d think we learned our lesson from what happened in the early 1980’s or early 1990’s.

#156 daystar on 05.03.12 at 11:53 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/01/monetary-policy-should-not-be-used-to-tackle-housing-bubble-david-dodge/

When I read this link, (outside of surprise that David Dodge is a director of the Bank of Nova Scotia) I agreed with David but for different reasons. The fact that foreign buying stats are either buried by or not known speaks volumes about the way this current government runs things. I can go on about some of the cuts being made at a federal level… salaries make up a big part of budgets so to cut 10% or more is to cut programs altogether and shoe string some of what is left when downsizing staff. The cuts being made at statscan worries me but thats another issue.

Foreign buying of RE in Canada is quite simply, an unknown. To fix housing bubbles with higher rate hikes… our feds could at any time reduce amortizations and jack up down payments to end this bubble and readers… even if we get a 10% drop in housing nationally, its still at highly elevated levels. Can homebuyers manage debt levels 10% lower than they are now with above normal rates returning within a 5 to 6 year horizon? We should know the answer and thus lays the dangers of a soft landing.

The bottom line is this. This nation has never before been so sensitive to higher interest rate hikes. Lots of folks entering the market 5 to 10 years ago could handle 8 to 10% rate spikes. This new round of buyers over the last few years can’t do it now. Our public debt has also never been so sensitive to a falling loonie as it is now (its in the high 80’s relative to GDP) and my worry (as it should be Mark Carney’s) is if for whatever reason Italy, Spain or France or all three leave the Euro within 5 years due to sovereign debt crisis, the impacts on the U.S. dollar would be dramatic (the greenback would climb perhaps dramatically leaving the loonie flatfooted). The impacts this would have on Canada’s ability to borrow would be greatly impacted due to where Canada’s gross public debt is at right now or is projected to be within the next few years. The consequences leading to above normal rates from the BoC is not unfathomable. Homebuyers have to price in this kind of risk and the risk I’m talking about is BoC rates at 6 to 7% within 6 years. Do the math from there and it should go without saying that buyers should be on the sidelines til’ valuations come down, down, down… because they will. Rising interest rates alone will do it. Savy?

#157 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 11:57 am

#141 AACI Okanagan

I understand your perspective for those who bought with real down payments, but if they bought with 0% down or cash back, they should expect negative equity, not sympathy. If they bought with 0% down, they ARE speculators even if they live there, in some ways more so than the renter who puts real cash to work in the stock market without leverage. Buying real estate with a sizable downpayment, I could feel more sympathy.

#158 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 12:05 pm

#155 daystar

There’s no mystery about foreign inflows. It all started here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NM2dX40Q2Dj8fcZo-0OgzOdgiyJkL8NVnY21LEtrsis/edit?pli=1

#159 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.03.12 at 12:07 pm

#145 Steven Rowlandson on 05.03.12 at 11:06 am
The point Steven is making is that a regular working guy, or a hard working person, can not make a decent living to pay for basics like food, shelter and transportation.

The reason is there are rafts of folks in Canadian society who do almost nothing day to day and receive giant pay packages relative to what they do.

In Taiwan, average people make a modest wage, but everybody works, or much more so than here, so costs are lower because their society is more productive.

Canada’s productivity is lousy because we’re over taxed and over burdened by a bloated public sector and a financial industry stuffed with cash at the disposal of non-producers. A lot of money chasing little production. Of course we import almost everything aside from trees and rocks because no manufacturer in their right mind would ever locate in this manufactures hell hole.

#147 Daisy Mae on 05.03.12 at 11:07 am

#59 MONSTER COOKIE: “I liked it, too, except for the religious overtone.”

****************************

That’s precisely what makes it hilarious.
—–
Exactly, my comment was sarcastic!

#160 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 12:08 pm

#133 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 9:58 am

“Don’t confuse his gregarious approach to business with a wanton lack of ethics.”

That advertisement was unethical, not “gregarious”. You need to pick up a dictionary — again.

Also, I never said “wanton”. Stop putting words in my mouth — which brings me to…

“Nor should you justify your envy of his success…”

Envy? I’m a physician. On my deathbed you think I’ll be regretting that I didn’t spend my life as a real estate agent? ROFLMAO.
So (yet again) this is clearly your projection — YOU envy his “success”.

SO sick of your smug, condescending, hackneyed posts, but until now you have (wisely) chosen to steer clear of me. The post of mine that you felt compelled to comment on didn’t in any way relate to you, but still I do give you credit — people with personality disorders usually can’t suppress their true selves for as long as you did.

I’m glad that you’ve posted this, because now it’s game on. My goal remains as before: to have you PERMANENTLY banned from this blog.

#161 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.03.12 at 12:13 pm

#149 Rob_M on 05.03.12 at 11:12 am

@Canadian Watchdog

Do you mind explaining what this means for gold bugs?
——
It means that if you’re going to buy a lot of gold to protect yourself financially from the government you should also buy a few guns and a lot of ammo to go with them. Also, it would be a good idea to join a shooting range or a gun club so that you and other like minded libertarians can gather for practice and small talk while shooting targets in the head and chest. Kill shots are the best, most effective!

#162 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 12:13 pm

#133 DA

“You are showing your true colours… jealousy of those who can afford that which you cannot and want of revenge for your depravation.”

I normally don’t get into personal matters on this blog. I am not here to discuss my personal situation but your accusations about me are just laughable and in need of a retort. You have no blinkin clue as to who I am, what I do, and what my net worth is. I won’t reveal it all for fear someone reading this may know who I am but my net worth puts me in the top 1% my friend. I merely think like the bearded mystic oracle who runs this blog. Do you feel Garth writes what he does because he is jealous and knows he can never have what others have??? Do you see how insane and foolish your arguments and false contentions about me are now? You are so quick to assume that everyone on this site is some jealous, incompetent bubble head who has achieved nothing and has nothing in this life. You are a sad case my friend and worthy of the invectives hurled at you.

I say we flambé him. — Garth

#163 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 12:16 pm

Today’s Luncheon Business Report:

TSX and DOW are nosediving. Gold is off $16 / oz. and oil lost a twoonie.

In Real Estate We Trust.

The S&P 500 is down 0.45% after rising 12%. So much for your creds. — Garth

#164 Frank the skank on 05.03.12 at 12:16 pm

Its too late to do anything to save the economy or real estate market, that’s why Carney and Flaherty’s jawboning is infuriating. See what happens if they raise interest rates!! Its too late to start warning people about the cause and effect of too much dept and low interest rates, politicians are just covering their gapping behinds at this point. Sherry Cooper is a prime example (even if she’s not a politician), a few weeks ago she was obnoxiously downplaying the bubble and now she’s jumping the fence and warning people. If bankers are that incompetent that they can’t see the elephant in the room, they definitely shouldn’t have such high profile jobs. They should have warned people when they lowered interest rates, but instead the machine just encouraged people to slit their own throat. Its not all their fault, people have to learn to think for themselves and realize that there is an inherited risk in blind faith. Calculating what you can and can’t afford doesn’t require an economist or math wiz, its simple math. I’m an idiot and I can do it, so there’s no excuse for anyone else in my opinion. We all play a part in this, but its amazing to see the effectiveness of the media for brainwashing the masses.

#165 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 12:17 pm

#141AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 10:31 am

#122 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 9:35 am

So many say that. Why isn’t there the same sense of sadness when renters with their nest egg in the stock market are down? Investments go up and down. Not sure why real estate is expected to be any different. If it’s a long term investment, expect to be down at some point, but eventually up. “Negative equity” is to be expected at some point ESPECIALLY with 0% down. Just like stocks.

IMO, there is a difference between a real investor/speculator over that of a family/person that buys a home for a principal residence. If you are investing whether in the stock market or real estate, then you take the risks attached to that investment. If you told me you lost all your money in the stock market I would feel bad for you but not as bad as I would if you told you lost it all in your principal home. Call me old school, but that is the way I feel..

I’d say you both have valid points of view.

If I am reading Tyredandboard correctly he/she is suggesting any investment should be a long term plan for any short term plan is speculation and as such a matter of timing.

If I am reading AACI Okanagan correctly he/she is essentially saying the same thing but from the homeowners point of view rather than that of the financial market investor/speculator.

Both have a good point that ANY investment, real estate or financial markets should be a LONG TERM plan. Slow and steady the course for if you speculate on winning BIG so too should you anticipate the very good probability that you might lose BIG. That society appears to have departed the former in favour of the later seems to me the biggest problem with our economy.

#166 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 12:35 pm

#157The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 12:13 pm

Apparently I touched a nerve?

I maintain that the bulk of the posters on this blog are anxious for an economic failing which would raise them from the depths of despair at the expense of those they believe enjoy ill-gotten gains. The truth is those who are in a better position in this economy are so because they play the game better. If indeed you are in the top 1% you must understand this. If you truly are in the top 1% you don’t care about those who took on more risk than they ought to have because you understand they have yet to learn how to play the game as that is one of the perils to be avoided in the game.

To write such a poem you must have a deep emotional conflict about the state of economic affairs I do not believe a true person of the top 1% would harbour as they clearly understand how the markets work and have played the game accordingly. That it is a game; there are going to be winners and losers. There is a new game started every moment you just have to have a game mindset to play and win. You cannot win the game by being a mere spectator.

But if you are in that top 1% you know this…

};-)

#167 Dontcallmeshirley on 05.03.12 at 12:37 pm

Bill C-38 is getting ram-rodded through Parliament. Should be done before summer.

C-38 contains the covered bond changes and CMHC changes (among a host of other things).

Presumably this means the OSFI guidelines become regulation shortly thereafter.

So much for that OSFI call for comment?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/conservatives-pass-motion-to-limit-debate-on-massive-budget-implementation-bill-150014305.html

As I stated in March. — Garth

#168 DM in C on 05.03.12 at 12:42 pm

I say we flambé him. — Garth

How about just ban him again? Why did you let him back in the first place? Does he have pics of you & the Amazons you don’t want to get out?

No. I’m proud of those. — Garth

#169 AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 12:54 pm

#156 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 11:57 am

I understand your perspective for those who bought with real down payments, but if they bought with 0% down or cash back, they should expect negative equity, not sympathy. If they bought with 0% down, they ARE speculators even if they live there, in some ways more so than the renter who puts real cash to work in the stock market without leverage. Buying real estate with a sizable downpayment, I could feel more sympathy.
——————————————————–

I understand your point, but I don’t 100% agree with you. It isn’t like someone can jump into the stock market with no money down? People who bought with 5% or less down in the late 90’s are doing alright. The system was put in place for a reason, just like every good thing it got abused and we are seeing the end result. An investor buying into real estate cannot buy with no money down or with 5%. Was it a good system for new home buyers? It appears not, but imo, there are other factors involved that has caused this mess, low interest rates, longer amortization periods, relaxed lending rules, etc. No money down or 5% has / or will back fired and it is one of things Garth has been preaching, the “herd mentality” . IMO, an investor in real estate is a different animal than those that want a home to raise their kids and family. Is it their fault that the government has made it easy for same? In part probably, but that doesn’t mean I can’s feel sorry for them when they lose their house, besides I always feel sorry for the sheep or cows going to slaughter :) , I am just a compassionate type of person. I wish you luck in your investments . Regards

#170 Dontcallmeshirley on 05.03.12 at 12:56 pm

As I stated in March. — Garth

—–

Garth, you held up the end of the year as the time OSFI regs would take hold.

Flaherty will get them in place much sooner…end of June.

Clever devil, whatever you may think of Flaherty, prohibiting the securitization of <80% LTV mortgages solves a lot of problems. Had this seemingly innocent change been implemented in the US, they would have spared quite a bit of grief.

So kudos to Flaherty (or someone in his department) for the idea.

PS. I understand Canada Mortgage Bonds are "maxed out" and cannot be issued at a greater pace than they currently are; which means Bill C-38 wipes out a large tranche of funding.

#171 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 1:02 pm

#161 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 12:13 pm

“I say we flambé him. — Garth”

Forget “flambe” — my vote is for “scorched earth”.

#172 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 1:07 pm

Re: Latest TREB stats

“This is nothing to be happy about.” — Garth
_____________________________________________

I disagree.

Evidence of steady and moderate growth, especially in the condo resale market, is the hallmark of a bull not a bubble.

SFH’s on the other hand, are suffering from a chronic and severe shortage of listing inventory.

Outside of the obvious supply-side dynamics for SFH, we are not experiencing the most important ingredient in an asset bubble – rapid price acceleration.

After adjusting for inflation and income growth; both of which have also been very moderate by historical standards, price growth year over year has by all rational accounts, been rather tame.

This to me, is in fact something to be quite happy about.

#173 TaxHaven on 05.03.12 at 1:10 pm

#158 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables

Well said!

Puzzles me, for example, how a country like Canuckistan can run public bus systems in every town and country of any size at all which run at 10-15% occupancy and pay wages of $15+/hr+benefits+pensions…

How, despite our high dollar, the only brand of sugar you can buy is Roger’s.

How there is no competition in the dairy products market.

How there is no competition in the natural gas market.

How 1/3+ of the public are either government employees, employees of government contractors or employees of businesses which only exist because of some government law, YET the Canadian dollar somehow retains some value.

How a simple hamburger+coke+fries can cost $8+ in this country YET THEY STAY IN BUSINESS!

Canadians are so productive, open to free competition…? Pull the other leg.

Yeah, and our banks are so PRUDENT? Tell me another one…

FUNDED WITH DEBT & ZERO SAVINGS. MAXED OUT.

#174 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 1:11 pm

March to your own drummer and play the game to your own level of content. If you are discontent then step up your stride and skill in the game. On the other hand, If you are content where you are even though many a man has more toys… congratulations you are winning the game as they may not be in their discontent with that which they already have.

You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.

Now Ev’ry gamble knows that the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
‘Cause every hand’s a winner and ev’ry hand’s a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.

“Ev’ry hand’s a winner and ev’ry hand’s a loser”

Gee I wonder what that might metaphor… ? Could it be that every “person” can be a winner just as they could be a loser.

You cannot win the game by being a mere spectator.

#175 Paul on 05.03.12 at 1:14 pm

#142 Grantmi on 05.03.12 at 10:33 am

Ya , I know that…DUH. But like most people they think their house is worth a lot more. Even in Duncan.

#176 bigrider on 05.03.12 at 1:24 pm

#162 Marketbull

Your post compels me to respond.

What a fool you are.

#177 harden on 05.03.12 at 1:33 pm

whoa, Vancouver realtor getting testy in this “balanced” market… she even mentions Greater Fool blog!

http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/homes-and-real-estate/vancouver%E2%80%99s-red-hot-real-estate-loses-its-heat?utm_source=MagMail&utm_medium=BCBusiness%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=BCBusiness%20enewsletter%20May022012

#178 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 1:45 pm

As promised. TREB million dollar update for April:

392 Sales in excess of a cool Mil.

Wow!

#179 Phil on 05.03.12 at 1:47 pm

@91 RainCity, let me rephrase… Renting a first world accomodation for $1,800 in Kits?? Absurd.

Those links you posted are embarrassing.

#180 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 1:48 pm

The new boat I want is more than I can justify paying given my current financial position. I have a choice A.) I can learn to be happy with the boat I have or B.) I can step up my game and earn the right to have that boat I would like to have.

Of course there is the fools way… C.) get a HELOC and sell my future in order that I may have today that which I have not yet earned right to. We know how that might end. Speculating you can afford tomorrow what you can’t today… Speculation.

};-)

#181 harden on 05.03.12 at 1:49 pm

This line is.. rich?

“Unaffordability is a myth. Plenty of people can afford real estate and those that can’t rent and those who really can afford it rent to others.”

http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/homes-and-real-estate/vancouver%E2%80%99s-red-hot-real-estate-loses-its-heat?utm_source=MagMail&utm_medium=BCBusiness%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=BCBusiness%20enewsletter%20May022012

#182 Steven Rowlandson on 05.03.12 at 1:56 pm

Garth the challenge was made to you not me. I’ve been there and done something like that from 1983 to 2009 fulltime. Also I had a recent experience from October 2011 to March 2012 at the Stair Shop.
When it comes to getting time in the sawdust working for crappy pay / market pay rates instead of being unemployed I have nothing further to prove. I will make the assumption that you have no intention of picking up a hammer and assembling stairs 8 hours a day for 3 months at minimum wage to find out what it is like in the real world.

You need to hammer to be real? — Garth

#183 X on 05.03.12 at 1:56 pm

…around what month should CMHC hit the 600B ceiling???…

#184 45north on 05.03.12 at 1:57 pm

aka DA: I maintain that the posters on this blog are anxious for an economic failing which would raise them from the depths of despair at the expense of those they believe enjoy ill-gotten gains.

to recap, the posters:
– are anxious for an economic failling
– are in the depths of despair
– believe others have ill-gotten gains

well I suppose we could meet, except that you live 3 time zones away

[email protected]

#185 Aussie Roy on 05.03.12 at 2:02 pm

Aussie Headlines

The title of Albert Edwards’ latest note is:

The biggest bubble in recent history is heading for the mother of all hard landings.

So what’s that bubble?

Australia!

Our own more Minskyan interpretation of events is that the lack of volatility in the Australian economic cycle and the absence of any recession since 1991 has led Australians to have an excessive appetite for debt in the belief the future will reflect the past. But for us, suppressed volatility is merely storing up an even bigger crash further down the road.

http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-australia-is-the-biggest-bubble-in-recent-history-2012-5

JIM ROGERS: The Next Economic Slowdown Is Coming And It’s Going To Be Much Worse

Video
http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-the-next-economic-slowdown-is-coming-2012-5?utm_source=readme&utm_medium=rightrail&utm_term=&utm_content=3&utm_campaign=recirc

#186 truth hammer on 05.03.12 at 2:04 pm

Garth…I’d like to touch on the subject of ‘averages’ again…..you replied to one poster that the ‘average wage was 83K and change’ ….I really think we should be looking at the median….and not the ‘average’….which can be a very misleading figure as we all know. In Vancouver we are top heavy with rich civil servants ( HAM doesn’t count because they don’t work) and in this civil service pile I include all those sucking out of the public trough……inc doctors etc……who all make many multiples of the ‘real wage of the majority’ of the people. The 25% in BC ( civil servants making in the hundreds of thousands and the doctors who make on average 365,000 per year as GP’s and then millions as specialists)…….skew the average incomes of the 75% majority who make no where near 83K …..way up to your stated ‘average 83K…..but this figure is completely false when looked at in actual terms … the real incomes of the majority of the wage earners families in Vancouver, Fraser Valley and BC are far less than 83K per household.

Ex : 9 wage earners making 50 per annum plus one doctor making 365,000 per annum equals 815,000 and divided by 10 to produce the ‘average’ makes every earner suddenly earning 81,000 instead of 50…but the averages indicate the higher amount for the published stat………

so…lets see what percentage of people in Vanc are making the big bucks and who they are and how that skews the ‘average’ wage to such an extent .

#187 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 2:06 pm

#165 DA

“But if you are in that top 1% you know this…”

I shall refrain from further discussion on this for the simple reason it will become meaningless. I am in the financial position that I am because I indeed did play the game better than others in society. I learned the value of a buck from parents who immigrated to this country and lived through the depression. The poem was written as a parody and in the theme of the many thoughts that exist on this blog. I have achieved a great deal of financial success in life even though I consider that to be a distant second to the success I have enjoyed in marriage (25 years) and the wonderful children that my wife and I have nurtured and brought up to be decent members of society. Oh, I think I was a great son to my late parents as well. The poem was done in fun, as an intellectual exercise to bring humour to those who frequent this blog. You, not having a clue as to who I am, what I earn and what my net worth is, have made all kinds of judgements about me that are wrong and laughable. I am going to share them with some close friends who will howl when they read them. End of discussion from my end.

#188 nocte_volens on 05.03.12 at 2:07 pm

Andy, you will be able to afford to buy in the future. Anyone who thinks the drop will be only 15% is kidding themselves. All markets revert to the mean, without exception. If it currently costs 11x income to buy in vancouver and normal is 4x income…well you do the math (i’ve run out of fingers and toes to count on). This reversion to the mean will take years and will consist of price decreases and inflation/wage gains. You probably have at least 5 or 6 years to the bottom, maybe a lot longer.

#189 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 2:12 pm

#157The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 12:13

For a man who claims to have so much you appear one who harbours substantial discontent.

#190 new_era on 05.03.12 at 2:17 pm

#129 Doug in London

What has changed.

“Well she sold her house!!!!”

” Show them your right hand and back stab them with your left”

Sherry Cooper knew it was going to get bad. Thats why she sold her house. Now that she’s out, she’ll be cheer leading for a price drop so she can get in again.

You got to remember she’s been wrong about the .com crash, US housing crash. She doesn’t have 1 ounce of credibility. So why listen to her in the first place.

#191 Smoking Man on 05.03.12 at 2:20 pm

My kids have been driving me nuts ever since I took a swing at a bouncer and got my ass kicked. No more drinking Dad.

So I tell em to leave my house they said screw you u drunkin idiot. Ok fair is fair. I like there aggresion.

So me and mRs smoking man decided we are going to run away from home. Rent a condo in toronto and leave the little shits in the house.

Well in our search. The rents are about the same as buying with very little down.

Hence if Carney does not raise rates this is going to go on for a while.

#192 Jim on 05.03.12 at 2:21 pm

#165:

“I do not believe a true person of the top 1% would harbour as they clearly understand how the markets work and have played the game accordingly. ”

What makes you think rich people participate in a ‘market’, as opposed to using other mechanisms to generate or retain wealth?

There are fools out there who seem to think that we have some sort of ‘free market’ economy, despite the constant stream of subsidies and bailouts to favoured individuals, corporations and industry sectors.

The first thing that businesses do when they become successful is lobby governments to pass laws limiting the free market. Butler Shaffer has a great book on this, called “In Restraint of Trade”.

I highly doubt most wealthy people make money by having a deep understanding of non existent free market structures. If you mean particular markets (equities, commodities, etc), I’d like to see some evidence that ANYONE has an ‘understanding’ of how they work, to the extent that they can make reliable predictions about future behaviour. Most hedge fund managers can’t beat randomization as an investment strategy, unless they engage in dirty shenanigans to make money in other ways.

#193 daystar on 05.03.12 at 2:21 pm

#157 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 12:05 pm

All you do is further my point. You can take the link you provided and switch out China with any other nation in the world including Canada to see how people launder money world wide. The ways of doing it are hardly a secret and China hardly has the market cornered on crime. Its the numbers… the hard numbers that people are after and to suggest that foreign buyers of RE are using illegal money “mainstream” is quite a leap as well.

Our own Conservative government has suggested that illegal money entering into Canada is around 2% from China through the lips of one of its ministers. I’ve got news for you. Its likely 2% from anywhere else including the outflows of our own Canadian investments abroad. What… did you think that crime had a skin color? (if you looked at the complexion of our corporate North American board rooms, it might) Again, this 2% even from a minister’s mouth is a fictional number because there’s no real data to back it up. Its a guess without proof and honestly, we don’t need comments that imply that foreign money is 100% illegally generated. There’s enough racism in this nation for the simple minded to react to without such false implications as it is.

#194 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 2:21 pm

#162 Market Bull

Inverse baby. Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Inverse ETF (HIX)
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=76144&qm_symbol=HIX

#195 disciple on 05.03.12 at 2:22 pm

#159 John G. Young… There is no such thing as a personality disorder. I know that this philosophically true statement may or may not make a mockery of your profession that you like to brag about, but it is what it is.

Psychiatry is a fraud. From every angle. It’s a drug-dealing machine, and all the drugs are toxic and dangerous. Not one single so-called mental disorder has ever, in any patient, been verified by a physical test, chemical or biological. That’s because there are no tests. The 300 so-called disorders listed in the bible of psychiatry, the DSM, are invented by committees from menus of behaviors. It’s a con. It’s an embrace between the profession of psychiatry and the pharmaceutical industry. From the psy-op perspective, diagnosing people with these disorder labels means they can be debilitated by the drugs. That makes the people of a nation weaker. That scrambles people’s brains. That sedates people. That makes people easier to control. And from another angle, if a person is diagnosed, his thoughts and ideas are no longer considered legitimate. As would aptly describe your comments as of late.

Like penpal said, “Why are you really here?”

#196 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 2:31 pm

#168 AACI Okanagan

I have heard of plenty of cash-back and 0 down mortgages being made in recent months/years, helping fuel the bubble. Even if one lives in that residence, they had no business buying with 0 down at 2.99, they should have rented, unless -ve equity was going to be okay. Otherwise, it is pure speculation/bet that RE only moves up and those sheep have led themselves to the slaughter.

One can get into stocks on pure leverage if one is nuts, but that is I hope not as prevalent as has been in real estate during this bubble. In any case, be it real estate or stocks, those who go all in on pure leverage garner no sympathy from me when things go bad for them. (Especially when their actions have helped cause this bubble in the first place.)

I do not wish ill on anyone: If someone has a real down payment saved, and buys a principle residence, OR they take real cash and put that in stocks, I feel equally bad if their investments have a rocky time. Mind you, in the long run, both should come out okay if they don’t panic.

#197 Tyredandboard on 05.03.12 at 2:40 pm

#168 AACI Okanagan

Ps. I think we pretty much agree here anyway except that I think those in other asset classes besides RE deserve a little sympathy too that those with negative equity in RE seem to garner. Renter+stocks vs. owner: both live/sleep somewhere and have their nest egg in an asset, both hope for upward movement in the long run. Both are real people whom I do not wish ill upon. The only difference is the asset class.

#198 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 2:42 pm

#186 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 2:06 pm

I still maintain, reading netween the lines, you are discontent. Maybe just a passing phase, but discontent at this time none-the-less. SHIFT happens both in mind and markets.

#194 disciple on 05.03.12 at 2:22 pm

There is no such thing as a personality disorder.

Are you implying I must take personal responsibility for being the misfit that I am?!?

#199 bubble head on 05.03.12 at 2:43 pm

TREB numbers are in and April looks great if you are a realtor.
April 2011 sales are higher than last year however last April sales were down 15%- 20% from the year before.
Sales were down for the first five months of the year

Like someone said before you forget sales if the price the price continues to rise.

#200 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 2:44 pm

#192 daystar

It’s irrelevant because it’s bad money-to-dumb money that will be purged out of the system.

#201 AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 2:47 pm

#173 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 1:11 pm

You cannot win the game by being a mere spectator.
———————————————————

that depends on the Vegas odds
————————————————-
#179 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 1:48 pm

The new boat I want is more than I can justify paying given my current financial position. I have a choice A.) I can learn to be happy with the boat I have or B.) I can step up my game and earn the right to have that boat I would like to have.

Of course there is the fools way… C.) get a HELOC and sell my future in order that I may have today that which I have not yet earned right to. We know how that might end. Speculating you can afford tomorrow what you can’t today… Speculation

—————————————————–

keep the canoe

#202 zeeman1 on 05.03.12 at 3:01 pm

#190 Smoking Man.

Running away from your kids AND leaving them the house?

Everywhere I look I could rent for less than owning, so I’m not sure what you’re talking about unless you’re only looking at the downtown core.

#203 Bill Gable on 05.03.12 at 3:07 pm

She usuall looks like, what sge is, a talented,honest, and until recently rocking.
Not so much.
She ordered another Caeser and told me her business hasn’t died, it has fallen off a cliff.
“It just stopped”. ” Biggest killer has been subject to sale…I have had a ton of deals die in March. April was bad, but…”her voice drifted away”. Ever nosy i had to ask how credit. ” The taps are tigthening at conservative end, sharks will lend at outrageous calls, and still do business. Her plans for Chinese branch had fallen through. I didn’t want appeal impolite. As she asnwered her bejewelled IPhone4s – how many people are staring a blundebuss, in the face. This lady has cooked up a 5000 a month house in Yaletown. She is loaded, but not a gazillionaire. ” Well, I have to see my lawyer. Time to bury my RE, I am gettinging out – time for head down, and liquidity, according to my gut.” Hmmmm. I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing?

#204 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 3:09 pm

#177 Market Bull

“392 Sales in excess of a cool Mil.”

April 2011 sales over a million was 430. Now I know why you never post anything other then the headline figure.

#205 Bill Gable on 05.03.12 at 3:09 pm

Realtor. Darned I phones. Apologies, all. “what age she is….etc”

#206 Mixed Bag on 05.03.12 at 3:13 pm

You mean, does the tail wag the dog? Or does the wag tailor the dog? — Garth

That was an unexpected turn of phrase. Nice.

#207 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 3:15 pm

#188 DA

“For a man who claims to have so much you appear one who harbours substantial discontent’

You have me reeling with your completely opposite assessment of who I am as person. I am the most contented person I know. I am an incorrible optimist and those who are close to me, family and friends all know that. I laughed heartily day in and day out. Once again they would find you assessemnt of me laughable.
I have spoken before thousands of students over the years, both at the elementary, high school and college levels and have kept audiences entertained and educated through my presentations as a public speaker. Enough said because I am getting to personal…

#208 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 3:17 pm

My last post was written in haste. Pardon the spelling typos.

#209 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 3:19 pm

#194 disciple on 05.03.12 at 2:22 pm

Good God! Don’t take my drugs away! The unveiled stark hypocritical (you can’t handle the truth) realities of this world would be too much for me to bear. I might be forced to join my nocturnal brother Smoking Man and turn to alcohol, women and gambling.

Hey – wait – a – minute… }:-)

Yes he who calls himself “The Gospel of GARTH” I too have my moments of discontent, as “manic” is but one of my many supposed personality disorders.

#210 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 3:27 pm

My son, chip of the old block that he is, sent this to me.

Thought the Dawgs might enjoy…

Hey Dad,

Saw this an thought it was pretty cool. Now go sell a house!!! :)

http://tinyurl.com/blofbso

And so… if you’ll excuse me, I must now go sell a house. };-)

#211 truth hammer on 05.03.12 at 3:37 pm

PS… to the guy who asks if all the bimmers etc are ‘bought on helocs……..the answer is no……ask any dealer…..99% of all new cars they deal with are leased. Like real estae cars have been hyperinflated by the ZIRP and are now ‘sold’ on the low monthly payment plan. If anyone has noticed….they don’t ever advertise the price of the cars anymore….only the monthly nut.

Car payments are adding a huge percentage onto the household debt of joe consumer………many times those truck payments are nearly as large as the mortgage becasuse of the shorter term…….two new cars in the drive most likely indicates kids going hungry, granny bashing, no after school programs. Has anyone asked themselves whu hockey sign ups in Ontarion have gone from over 10,000 a few years ago to less than 2000? Think about the number of karate and ballet lessons that aren’t be taken….tutors?

Don’t forget that the fastest growing segment of food bank users ( behind the elderly) are working couples pulling up in brand spanking new cars who can now make appointments after work so that they don’t miss the pick up……at least the food bank people are watching out for the kids welfare eh?

#212 westcanguy on 05.03.12 at 3:42 pm

The previous owner had purchased the house in 1969 for $38,500 and we are assured of having an asset to bequeath to our children in 2054 that will be worth in excess of $132,400,000.
_______________________________________________

Thanks for the chuckle…guffaw actually. I didn’t even mind chocking on my coffee.

#213 Blacksheep on 05.03.12 at 3:45 pm

|Garth,

I for one, enjoy DA’s motivational “You can
do it” ramblings, based on Unicorns and Lollipops, makes for good entertainment. It will be interesting
to witness the psychological impact on our resident
RE agents, as they are forced accept the undeniable correction, now underway in BC. I predict DA will
roll with it, but I bet BPOE snaps. Hey…lets start
a pool, calling when they cut and run, or when
Garth is finally forced to ban em. I say BPOE is
gone by May/31/12, as he seems pretty tightly
wound already.

take care
Blacksheep

#214 ???? on 05.03.12 at 3:50 pm

#194 disciple on 05.03.12 at 2:22 pm #159 John G. Young… There is no such thing as a personality disorder. I know that this philosophically true statement may or may not make a mockery of your profession that you like to brag about, but it is what it is.

Psychiatry is a fraud. From every angle. It’s a drug-dealing machine, and all the drugs are toxic and dangerous. Not one single so-called mental disorder has ever, in any patient, been verified by a physical test, chemical or biological. That’s because there are no tests. The 300 so-called disorders listed in the bible of psychiatry, the DSM, are invented by committees from menus of behaviors. It’s a con. It’s an embrace between the profession of psychiatry and the pharmaceutical industry. From the psy-op perspective, diagnosing people with these disorder labels means they can be debilitated by the drugs. That makes the people of a nation weaker. That scrambles people’s brains. That sedates people. That makes people easier to control. And from another angle, if a person is diagnosed, his thoughts and ideas are no longer considered legitimate. As would aptly describe your comments as of late.

Like penpal said, “Why are you really here?”
——————————————————
Scientologist?

#215 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 3:54 pm

Canadian Watchdog wrote:

“April 2011 sales over a million was 430. Now I know why you never post anything other then the headline figure.”
_____________________________________________

Allow me to clarify:

The stats I posted were for Toronto City proper (C01 – W10).

For the GTA, TREB stats indicate 669 sales over $1million for the month of April, 2012.

Any further questions?

#216 Onthesidelines on 05.03.12 at 4:02 pm

#91 Rain city said ” To all of you stating that $1800 for 3 bedrooms in Kits is bogus, a ten minute scan of craigslist revealed these:”

Each and every one of those listings is a basement cave. Damp, dark and mouldy…. not meant for human habitation. Why don’t you show prices of real apartments or condos in the area?

#217 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 4:04 pm

#205The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 3:15 pm

and

#206The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 3:17 pm
My last post was written in haste. Pardon the spelling typos.

Chill out Dude… I’m getting the picture. You remind me way too much of me.

#218 Doug in London on 05.03.12 at 4:08 pm

@new_era, post #189:
I see your point. Once you’re safe in a life boat, only then do you warn others the ship really is going down. For the record, I never listened to her advice, it never stood up to the test of that little known thing called common sense. Didn’t she say Canada and the U.S. should go to a common currency about 10 years ago?

#219 bruce on 05.03.12 at 4:09 pm

Garth can i walk away from my mortgage.
I got a $300000 mortgage on a property which I paid 320000. I want to take money out of this and walk away with it. Is this doable. I figure I can make a living on defaulting a a mortgage. I know many americans who made millions defaulting on mortgages.
Is it doable here?

Joke, right? — Garth

#220 renters rule on 05.03.12 at 4:16 pm

@#194 Disciple

Are you a scientologist? :-o

Garth, this blog is really firing on all cylinders these days….. now channeling intergalactic energy! …hey, wait a minute…. maybe that could explain the elfin deity, he lost his thetan?

#221 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 4:26 pm

#188 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 2:12 pm

“For a man who claims to have so much you appear one who harbours substantial discontent.”

Let’s review yours The Gospel of GARTH’s posts and see who’s the one who habors “substantial discontent”.

Classic personality disorder.

#222 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 4:44 pm

#194 disciple on 05.03.12 at 2:22 pm

I agree with much of what you say about psychiatry, which is why I am not a psychiatrist. Having said that, my ex-partner is bipolar II (diagnosis missed by me) whose depressive episodes led to serious suicidal attempts in the past. Once he was properly diagnosed (after taking an SSRI which triggered a full-blown manic episode) he was started on lithium. That was over 10 years ago, and he has been fine ever since, so I don’t share your black-and-white belief system.

“I know that this philosophically true statement may or may not make a mockery of your profession that you like to brag about…”

As per by recent correspondence with Westernman (someone you should not feel proud to be mentioned in the same sentence with): I defy you to show me ONE post where I have “bragged” about my profession — and if you can’t then you need to apologize to me for that comment.

Like penpal said, “Why are you really here?”
To learn from Garth and others who post comments.
To encourage civil dialogue.
To confront abuse.
Why are YOU “really” here?

#223 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 4:56 pm

#214 Market Bull

We’ll see what those stats are like when I get my scalpel out.

#224 Harlee on 05.03.12 at 4:59 pm

Mr. Lahey
I just hope that you and the others at the Trailer Park will be nice to your mothers on the 13th. Mom’s special day is coming up fast so buy her a three meat pizza or at least a Timmys,eh ? Come on boys,don’t be so cheap…!
And you bigrider (@139)…You stay out of those sleazy shops with all of those hardwood “toys” and spend some of your loot on a nice present for your mother (or at least someone’s mother).
From his recent post that I’ve read it looks like SM is at least trying to clean up his act (sort of). If He can do it,so can the rest of you guys…I bet SM is nice to his mum.
Mark it: May 13 ,2012(that’s a Sunday),Mother’s Day .
Mater matters.

#225 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 5:02 pm

#205 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 3:15 pm

“Enough said because I am getting to [sic] personal…”

That’s what he who calls himself };-) aka DA does — as with all people with personality disorders, his rigid belief system (which is not based on facts) and impenetrable defenses make him impervious to any real interactions with others, and it does get under one’s skin. When it gets too much for him, };-) aka DA will attempt to shut down the discussion — oh wait, I see he already did that in #214 with the contemptuous “Chill out Dude” comment.

Probably best to just not engage. It’s too late for me in that regard, but maybe you can save yourself; or, if you can out-argue him, he will just avoid you, as he now does with me.

#226 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.03.12 at 5:07 pm

#172 TaxHaven on 05.03.12 at 1:10 pm
—-
Well said also, and don’t buy sugar, it’s bad for you.

It’s stuff like this that makes me want to write a book, I’ve already thought of the title, Why I hate Canada! And just list all the retarded (expensive), hypocritical, socialist, nanny state, incidents of fascism and god knows what else, it could be a long book.

#227 dad on 05.03.12 at 5:24 pm

Oh goodie a little community of internet basement dwellers has started to take over the comment section to turn it into their personal hang-out. Can’t you creeps find a chat room?

#228 Stevenson on 05.03.12 at 5:29 pm

#39 Keeping the Faith

I am still here.

Do you have any idea how much people like me have made in the last few years in Canadian RE? Even if a correction was ever to happen it would not wipe out our equity. RE is not a bad investment. It’s only bad for people with poor judgement and poor in general. It’s about when to get in and how to leverage to your advantage.

For most investors who took the rocketship for the last few years. We would need to be hit pretty hard with a 40%+ correction to even come close to losing opportunity costs.

You snooze you lose.

For most people a house is a home. And you are the enemy. — Garth

#229 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 5:45 pm

#212Blacksheep on 05.03.12 at 3:45 pm

Thanks for the backhanded compliment but I wouldn’t be so sure.

The market may not unfold as you expect and BPOE may well enjoy better market conditions that you think. BPOE is a good soldier who knows that British Columbia is the last to feel depressed international economic conditions and the first to feel the good ones. His unwavering enthusiasm will carry him through.

I on the other hand could well leave the business not because the market tanks but rather because the business has changed intolerably. People believe the business is something quite different than it is. People haven’t a clue what actually “sells” houses. People believe the market has changed – nothing has changed. People believe the internet has changed the business – it really hasn’t. Everyone is a real estate expert and everyone it seems has a crystal ball. Ultimately the hypocrisy of the whole thing is that it becomes a Ponzi Scheme with REALTORS prostituting themselves to get clients and ultimately that hurts the client because they are being given what they “think” they want but it’s fake, lacks substance and short lived ending in disappointment. Is it any wonder REALTORS are loathed so – they are prostitutes giving their clients what exactly what they ask for – to be screwed.

So I will do the business the way I know it needs to be done. I may not be able to compete with the throng of those who will tell you what you want to hear and “buy your listing” at a ridiculous price you think your home might be worth. That’s ok. There are a lot of agents out there. A whole lot of new ones who need to learn the ropes. Maybe that’s why people need to retire – to make way. Might just be time for this old Dawg to do just that.

Yes John G and he who calls himself “The Gospel of GARTH” I am not without my own discontent and sick little Blog Puppy personality disorders. Put out the newspapers I’m about to do my business.

};-)

#230 EB on 05.03.12 at 5:51 pm

#215 Onthesidelines – Each and every one of those listings is a basement cave.

Hah, I can’t speak to Kits, but in North Van my very comfortable 3 bedroom top floor of a house runs me substantially under $1.4k per month. Place is seriously nice, warm, quiet – never even hear the creature in the basement. Admittedly I did get a particularly good deal.

The only people trying to charge outrageous amounts for moldy caves are amateur landlords.

#231 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 5:52 pm

#228 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 5:45 pm

“Put out the newspapers I’m about to do my business.”

You “do your business” every time you post here.

#232 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 5:54 pm

#226 dad on 05.03.12 at 5:24 pm

“Can’t you creeps find a chat room?”

Can’t you?

#233 ANONYMOUS on 05.03.12 at 5:57 pm

Forget the kids, Baby Boomers drive the NEW sales boom !

And don’t even begin to think that they might be selling anytime soon, NO, instead those OLD MORONS are buying like there is no tomorrow !

NUTS ; YES.
RATIONAL; NO.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2012/05/forget-the-kids-baby-boomers-drive-new-car-sales-boom-/1

#234 Mr. Lahey on 05.03.12 at 5:59 pm

#223 Harlee

“Mr. Lahey
I just hope that you and the others at the Trailer Park will be nice to your mothers on the 13th.”

Why of course we will be Harlee! My saint of a mother left this earth almost 5 years ago and there is not a day that I do not think of her and this will be especially true on Mother’s Day. Ricky and Bubbles and the rest of the gang are all busy buying gifts, cards and flowers for this very special day. In fact, I think I will host the FASTMDAParty (First Annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Mother’s Day Appreciation Party). Thanks for the inspiration Harlee! Too short a notice for all the wonderful blog dogs but enough time to get something together for the Sunnyvale residents.

#235 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 6:07 pm

#224 John G. Young

“Probably best to just not engage. It’s too late for me in that regard, but maybe you can save yourself; or, if you can out-argue him, he will just avoid you, as he now does with me.”

Thanks for the heads up. I came to that conclusion as well. I do not like to engage in personal attacks and the exchange has reached its conclusion. As one of the real beatitudes states, “blessed are the peacemakers”. Civil dialogue is what this blog should have in its daily contents. Keep up the great posts!

#236 dad on 05.03.12 at 6:17 pm

#231 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 5:54 pm

I read the comment sections to read relevant materials to the subject matter blog owner Garth Turner posts about, not your bizarre personal vendetta against people who dare disagree with you. Frankly its stalkerish.

Even replying to you makes me uncomfortable. You are creepy.

#237 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 6:21 pm

Ahhhh, it’s becoming all too clear. TREB condo sales and prices getting boosted because more developers are using MLS to sell their inventory like this: http://i48.tinypic.com/2eb4eh3.png

http://urbantoronto.ca/database/projects/no-210-residences-simcoe

Now we have a futures market, where 2013 and beyond contracts are getting priced into 2012. No wonder why Robert Hogue of RBC stated this in the latest Vancouver housing report:

“the strong gains in property values from 2009 to early 2011 were overstated by MLS average price data.”

Now look again what happened when the futures market ended in Vancouver. http://i46.tinypic.com/2wbvmsi.png

All manipulation.

#238 Market Bull on 05.03.12 at 6:24 pm

Watchdog wrote:

#214 Market Bull

We’ll see what those stats are like when I get my scalpel out.
_____________________________________________

Be careful CW, scalpels are sharp – and you…well,not so much.

#239 jess on 05.03.12 at 6:34 pm

“Each region has its own unique influences.”

If cheap credit is available in every region then why wouldn’t house prices be high everywhere?
=
…”and rep. want to cancel the earned credit …”a family with three children that earned $6,000 year. average wage for a third of American workers in 2010.” (david clay johnston reuters)

Guess who ?
$5m /year for working one day a week

=========

contrast and compare

Modern History Sourcebook:
Andrew Carnegie:
The Gospel of Wealth, 1889
http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1889carnegie.asp

AND

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/05/03-5

#240 steev on 05.03.12 at 6:50 pm

I say we flambé him – Garth

Challenge accepted.

DA, you have but one argument, that all wealth comes from “playing the game”, and that those who aren’t “winning” have only themselves to blame. At its core this isn’t an argument for stable real estate, but it seems to be all you have. Everything anyone hurls at you is deflected. Obviously all of your detractors are all jealous because they don’t play the game as well as they would like. Cleverly you never imply they aren’t playing it as well as you. Everyone cheering for a crash is a misguided spectator who should get in the ring instead of wasting money on tickets. You’ve mastered the art of stinking like a rose as it were.

Here’s the thing…the argument “Buying real estate is good because: capitalism” doesn’t hold water. I am very much in the game as a renter. I’m not a spectator, I’m on the other team. People on my team are not cruel or misguided for cheering for our success at the expense of your team’s failure as only one team can win your precious “game”. To be out of the game I’d have to compromise my standard of living, perhaps shack up with my parents. I don’t do that. I don’t do compromise when it comes my living arrangements. I rent. I am playing the game, and I am winning.

I smell burning bananas

#241 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 6:51 pm

#235 dad on 05.03.12 at 6:17 pm

Hey dad,

You might want to read #234 — seems not everyone agrees with your assessment of me as a “creepy” and “stakerish” person with a “bizarre personal vendetta”.

Oh, and you know what I find creepy? Someone who likes to attack people while hiding behind the bland moniker “dad”.

“Even replying to you makes me uncomfortable.”

Then here’s a suggestion: don’t.

#242 Smoking Man on 05.03.12 at 7:03 pm

#207 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 3:17 pm

The link in your name is broken

#243 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 7:11 pm

#234 The Gospel of GARTH on 05.03.12 at 6:07 pm

Thank you.

#244 Derek R on 05.03.12 at 7:16 pm

#223 Harlee on 05.03.12 at 4:59 pm wrote:
Mater matters

That reminds me:

My eyes are fully open to my awful situation –
I shall go at once to Roderic and make him an oration.
I shall tell him I’ve recovered my forgotten moral senses,
And I don’t care twopence-halfpenny for any consequences.
Now I do not want to perish by the sword or by the dagger,
But a martyr may indulge a little pardonable swagger,
And a word or two of compliment my vanity would flatter,
But I’ve got to die tomorrow, so it really doesn’t matter!
So it really doesn’t matter,
So it really doesn’t matter –
matter, matter, matter, matter,
matter, matter, matter, matter,
So it really doesn’t matter,
So it really doesn’t matter,
matter, matter, matter, matter,
So it really doesn’t matter,
So it really doesn’t matter,
So it really doesn’t matter,
matter, matter, matter, matter!
matter, matter, matter, matter, matter,
matter, matter, matter, matter,…

$800,000 at 5% down can lead to strange behaviour when you realise what you’ve done.

#245 Devore on 05.03.12 at 7:16 pm

#133 };-) aka DA

So many on this blog like you though… waiting, waiting, waiting… doing nothing but waiting for your “someday” that may never come. What a waste of your life. We live in Disneyland and you are pouting. }:-(

Doing nothing? Doing plenty here. Life doesn’t stop because I’m not willing to spend $500k on a tiny skybox for the family, or $1M on a teardown.

As for Disneyland, I’m feeling more like I live in a circus, and I don’t like clowns.

#246 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.03.12 at 7:17 pm

Great video!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp3tLLVLPao&feature=related

The song’s good too.

#247 AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 7:18 pm

#212Blacksheep on 05.03.12 at 3:45 pm

Thanks for the backhanded compliment but I wouldn’t be so sure.

The market may not unfold as you expect and BPOE may well enjoy better market conditions that you think. BPOE is a good soldier who knows that British Columbia is the last to feel depressed international economic conditions and the first to feel the good ones. His unwavering enthusiasm will carry him through.

————————————————–

I am scratching my head on this statement, I thought you have been in the business for a long time and have been through a few market changes. If you had you would never make such a claim.

#248 Timing is Everything on 05.03.12 at 7:22 pm

#185 truth hammer

Don’t forget the drug trade. I’m pretty sure they don’t report all their income to the CRA.

#249 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.03.12 at 7:31 pm

Another amazing song,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6Ae0k27LT4&feature=related

Krokus “Screaming In The Night”

Come on Garth, I know you’re older than I am but you gotta know this diddy?

#250 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.03.12 at 7:37 pm


#212 Blacksheep — “. . . Unicorns and Lollipops . . .”
— and —
#219 renters rule — “. . . now channeling intergalactic energy!”

Gotta say it’s a lot more fun being way out there in right field, and not being concerned with the stuff of this planet.

After all, what can be done about it? Nothing. Not a sausage. Buggerall! We’re only here for a short and good time. That’s why I mostly post links with little commentary.
*
Thought For The Day! — “It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from its government.” — Thomas Paine (wrh.com).
*
86 mln. invisible unemployed; Shipping Industry BDI down around 45% so far; Banxter CEO pay surges, while austerity sux; The Taming of the Shrew; Occupy Bildeberg An experiment;

Fraud “This is the US Government in an election year, frying a small-time corruption case publicly while continuing to ignore Wall Street’s 100-trillion mortgage-backed securities fraud.”; DHS and Fukushima Fallout Economic benefits? Marie Antoinette rides again; Krugman Partkt right, mostly wrong; Profits Down SocGen (French bank).
*
The most shoplifted food reminds me of of this; Antioxidants “To keep the body in good health is a duty, otherwise we shall not be able to keep our mind strong and clear. — Buddha (c. 563 BC to 483 BC)”; Polar Bears can’t swim? Ummm, I don’t think so, and Freezing Again UK, except it’s nearly summer; Saturn Life in ice moon? 8:25 clip Yes, Ron Paul has no supporters, and this Pic and caption; 5:04 clip Obomba, Romney, NDAA and Ron Paul; Suicide Lessons “I think it is more important to ask WHY kids are ready to kill themselves rather than worry about how they learn the means to do so.” wrh.com; 3:40 clip Pre-emptive strike by Russia? Secession North Dakota? HR347 – Dictatorship Almost there; Leaked “The manual outlines policies for processing detainees into internment camps both globally and inside the United States.”; Prey Free software; Rogue State “American War Criminals Now Subject To Laws US Enforces on Others” and Colin Powell Similar to Phoney Tony, dubya etc.

#251 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.03.12 at 7:40 pm

Maybe this is your era,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9nfVrusSMg&feature=related

Good times…

#252 Kilby on 05.03.12 at 7:41 pm

It’s interesting reading all the different opinions posted here, especially Market Bull and BPOE, they live in a different world than most of us.

I have recently sold a 20 year home. We are leasing in a new granite and stainless in Vancouver that is splashy but overpriced and poorly built, will buy again as we like homes and gardens but are staying liquid at least until spring 2013.

The pharma CEO that is leasing the penthouse in our building after selling a West Vancouver home last year and a medical specialist here (that reads this blog daily) are both convinced that a big adjustment is due soon here in Vancouver. They aren’t “real estate professionals” but are very successful and wealthy. It’s just interesting just what everybody is “convinced” will happen. to a logical mind a big change seems to be inevitable .

#253 Bigrider on 05.03.12 at 7:51 pm

Al Sinclair , scumbag realtor on hot property right now just said ,after Vince Gaitano , mortgage pumper recommended putting down a 5% downpayment on a property rather than borrowing the full amount, to quote, ” although 5% is a good idea and saves you the extra costs of a 100% mortgage , it doesn’t help to sit on the sidelines while the area you are interested in appreciates another 7 to 10%”

These dirtbags have got to go.

#254 Westernman on 05.03.12 at 7:52 pm

John G. Young @ # 159,
So you want to get people who don’t agree with you banned, huh?
Not enough to be a sexual deviant now you want to be a fascist as well…
Can’t take the heat, huh?

#255 Bigrider on 05.03.12 at 7:54 pm

Vince gaitano, monster mortgage on CP24 just now quote” does not see a bubble in the GTA. Stable market and as long as immigrants continue to come here supply will be tight “

#256 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 7:56 pm

#185 truth hammer on 05.03.12 at 2:04 pm

“…in this civil service pile I include all those sucking out of the public trough……inc doctors etc……who all make many multiples of the ‘real wage of the majority’ of the people. The 25% in BC ( civil servants making in the hundreds of thousands and the doctors who make on average 365,000 per year as GP’s and then millions as specialists)…….”

I’m a doctor and my net (after overhead) income has never exceeded $90,000 in any year I worked.

Some of us are actually more interested in spending time with patients and helping people than “sucking out of the public trough”.

But then again, what would I know?

#257 Bigrider on 05.03.12 at 7:59 pm

One caller from square one mississauga calls in on CP24 right now and asks ” what do u see for the value of my semi going forward , currently worth about 450k”

Without missing a beat sleazy Al responds ” you are in the center of the universe ( as Anna humprohmer chuckles) you will see nothing but appreciation over the coming years” unquote.

These guys make me sick

#258 };-) aka DA on 05.03.12 at 8:02 pm

#246AACI Okanagan on 05.03.12 at 7:18 pm

};-) aka DA

#212 Blacksheep on 05.03.12 at 3:45 pm

Thanks for the backhanded compliment but I wouldn’t be so sure.

The market may not unfold as you expect and BPOE may well enjoy better market conditions that you think. BPOE is a good soldier who knows that British Columbia is the last to feel depressed international economic conditions and the first to feel the good ones. His unwavering enthusiasm will carry him through.

I am scratching my head on this statement, I thought you have been in the business for a long time and have been through a few market changes. If you had you would never make such a claim.

Indeed I have been in the business a long time – maybe too long, been through a few market shifts and I do emphatically maintain; British Columbia is the last to feel depressed international economic conditions and the first to feel the good ones. Only Kelowna is more resilient, by a long shot, based on my observation over the past 35 years in which I paid any attention. I am surprised by your implication that you have not observed the same.

It is true; Kelowna, despite it’s flaws of which admittedly it has it’s fair share I’ll not go into at this time, does have a most resilient economy which is relatively well insulated from national and international economic falters and most quick to benefit from national and international economic gains. I’ve seen it time and time again and expect this time will be no different.

#259 Bigrider on 05.03.12 at 8:18 pm

Oh and by the way Garth , while we all call it a bidding war and unethical when realtors create that sort of a condition, Al Sinclair chooses to call it ” holding back offers” as he mentions 32 duart park road, a listing of his in the beaches area.

He makes it sound so professional when really it is the dirtiest of processes.

The GTA is so f- in I’ll over RE.

RE101- gottohumpahoma virus full blown end stage.

#260 J.I.M. on 05.03.12 at 8:28 pm

Garth, about those bank prefered . I am reminded that during the american real estate meltdown, the American bank stocks tanked, some still not recovered. Considering it’s not different here, how do you see Canadian banks, and their stokck prices faring, when Canadian real estate tanks?

Preferreds are not equities. No comparison. — Garth

#261 Smoking Man on 05.03.12 at 8:50 pm

WOW 9% year over year in price
The Great Smoking Man nails another one out of the park. I’m better at calling markets than god. Read my posts from the fall.

GTA sales up Over 18 % 22% in single detached homes like mine.

Oh bubble heads where is your fat lady, she’s not singing anytime soon. The only song you will here is the machine ramp ping up the bubble talk, but clearly the herd aint paying attention. After the a few months when prices seasonally drop, The crash is coming the crash is coming. Carney spikes a 1/4 and the herd retreats for a bit, then Next spring they say aw screw it lets buy.

Why am I so good. Cause I just am.
No belief system no bias, just amazing powers of observation, Analyse and React .

It’s so easy for the un schooled.

Here is the cake. Kids take two bites.

Market Remains Tight with Sales Up in April
TORONTO, May 3, 2012 – Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,350 transactions
through the TorontoMLS system in April 2012. This level of sales was 18 per cent
higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011. The strongest sales growth
was reported in the single-detached market segment, with transactions of this home
type up by 22 per cent compared to a year ago.
“Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto
and surrounding regions. Growth in single-detached listings has not kept up with
demand, which means competition between buyers in this market segment
increased. With this in mind, it was no surprise that the strongest annual price
increase was also experienced in the single-detached segment,” said Toronto Real
Estate Board President, Richard Silver.
The average price for April 2012 transactions was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent
compared to April 2011. While price growth was strongest for single-detached
homes, the better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a more
moderate annual rate of price growth, at four per cent.
“Monthly mortgage payments remain affordable for home buyers in the Greater
Toronto Area. While interest rates are generally expected to increase over the next
two years, the extent and timing of rate hikes has been thrown into question by
slower than expected economic growth in the first quarter of this year. On net,
borrowing costs are expected to remain a positive factor influencing home sales
through 2012,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2012/mw1204.pdf

#262 Smoking Man on 05.03.12 at 8:53 pm

Preferreds are not equities. No comparison. — Garth

You have been preaching preferreds for the longest time, yet still know one gets how they work. And you wonder why the herd loves RE

KIDS GOGGLE “Preferreds” just saying

#263 daystar on 05.03.12 at 9:14 pm

#199 Canadian Watchdog on 05.03.12 at 2:44 pm

Irrelevant as in its foreign money (bad or dumb) and therefore foreign loss? Depends on whether its leveraged inside/outside of Canada (not to mention loss is loss and we are all more interconnected than we think). Certainly foreign buying is a contributing factor to the runup on prices but not in the way or levels Canadians have been led to believe it is. I’m willing to bet that with the media using “bubble” buzzwords with housing daily especially with the CBC doing stories like a couple nights ago that we will see a chill effect in domestic spending on the market and it won’t be light. I’m betting they are wondering right now if they killed the market with too much warning, but we’ll see. Media plays a huge role on perception. It goes without saying, but we still underestimate its power.

#194 disciple on 05.03.12 at 2:22 pm

Ah yes, here we are. I’m sensing these characteristics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grandiosity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egotism

… not to be confused with egoism. Now, its only natural to feel threatened by this assessment in your condition. There are medications that can help you with this that I think could help you in the short term, you need not get them all from the street. (ok, I have to stop myself, finding way to much humor in this)

:)

#264 ‘They have no idea’ | The Retiring Boomer™ on 05.03.12 at 9:14 pm

[…] In other words, when 70% of families own houses and have more mortgage debt than anyone imagined possible, we’re probably going down. In fact, just five days ago F himself talked about Toronto’s loopy condo market, and used the word “crash.” And Mark Carney might as well go to work in a hearse and shave with a scythe just to make his point a little clearer. Continue reading → […]

#265 Westernman on 05.03.12 at 9:19 pm

John G. Young @ # 286,
90,000.00 @ year… Waaaaaaayyyyyyyyy more than your worth…

#266 renters rule on 05.03.12 at 10:11 pm

westernman you’re an a**hat

#267 Blog Dog Carney on 05.03.12 at 10:24 pm

Thank you Garth for allowing me this one brief comment. I continue to review your blog from time to time, and appreciate reaching those that follow it.

Blogger [email protected] Another very well presented
comment. We are “doggedly” monitoring the situation in
Europe. An implosion of more of the economies of the
eurozone would very likely lead to a rising US dollar.

In our planning though, we must consider other possible effects. What also has a chance of happening is a flight
to the CDN dollar (or other currencies) as an alternative
or for diversification, lessening the relative strength of
the US dollar.

#268 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 11:12 pm

#254 Westernman on 05.03.12 at 7:52 pm

“So you want to get people who don’t agree with you banned, huh?”

Just DA, and not because I don’t agree with him, as is obvious to anyone who can read (which apparently excludes you and “dad”).

“Not enough to be a sexual deviant now you want to be a fascist as well…”

There you go, playing the victim again.
You socialists are all alike.

#269 daystar on 05.03.12 at 11:59 pm

#267 Blog Dog Carney on 05.03.12 at 10:24 pm

Thanks and good points. Have you considered what Canada’s investment climate would be if PIGG states leave the Euro during a Canadian unwinding RE/credit bubble scenario? Liked your message last week by the way. Good stuff.

#270 };-) aka DA on 05.04.12 at 12:24 am

#268 John G. Young on 05.03.12 at 11:12 pm
#254 Westernman on 05.03.12 at 7:52 pm

“So you want to get people who don’t agree with you banned, huh?”

Just DA, and not because I don’t agree with him, as is obvious to anyone who can read (which apparently excludes you and “dad”).

I know I’m going to regret asking but my curiosity far outweighs the compulsion to keep my distance from that which too creeps me out (and it’s not the gay thing – I have gay friends. It’s the overt gay pride attitude. My gay friends don’t go to length to hide it but neither do they on the other hand like you go to lengths to flaunt it) so; care to enlighten us why you would have me banned?

#271 Pbane on 05.04.12 at 1:52 am

I’m a condo renter in Vancouver area. My landlord came into some money around 2004 and bought several units to rent. So it was a win-win for both parties the past few years. Unfortunately, he is planning to sell them all soon. Can’t blame him. When insiders like this start selling out, the crash is soon to follow.

#272 disciple on 05.04.12 at 9:19 am

John G. Young… you bragged in your previous post, “I am a physician, I will not regret…etc..” And many of your more recent statements you’ve made are self-contradictory, but perhaps you don’t see it yet. Bad week or something… Anyways, no one’s perfect… but I had to say something because I respect you otherwise…anyway moving on…

daystar… Glad I amuse you. But you made my point, so thanks… and congrats on finally seeing the great Satan that is the media perception. The mother of all mind control… see my blog for details on just a few of the actors involved.

And no way in hell I’m a scientologist. Stop with the labels, people. I’m a scientist, as are we all… have a good one… – disciple.

#273 John G. Young on 05.04.12 at 10:19 am

#272 disciple on 05.04.12 at 9:19 am

“you bragged in your previous post, “I am a physician, I will not regret…etc..”

I didn’t think of it as bragging, but I can see how it could come across that way. My comment was probably in reaction to all the comments I read on this blog from people who seem to think that the highest value in life is material wealth.

“And many of your more recent statements you’ve made are self-contradictory, but perhaps you don’t see it yet.”

I don’t. And although I don’t agree with some of the material you post, I respect you as well, and would appreciate it if you would bring past or future self-contradictory comments to my attention.

“Stop with the labels, people…”

I totally understand — it’s what I’m fighting for here as well (although perhaps in a different way).

Cheers,

John

#274 TurnerNation on 05.04.12 at 10:56 pm

Now we need a definition for ‘yap’.


70Dan in Victoria on 05.03.12 at 12:35 am
@32
Spriuk=shoot your yap off

#275 rolf on 05.05.12 at 4:22 pm

bring back the OTTOMAN EMPIRE

#276 Stoopid on 05.06.12 at 12:16 pm

Try chapter 15 … then If you think you can handle a little instruction, go back and sit thru all webinars. After thirty years in the oilsands and Ft.Mcmurray I sold my 50K house for a 575K. Moved and bought my 440K home and put some in my jeans. At the end of the day unless you understand the hidden tax of inflation you’ll never get it. Regardless of what sector you decide to try and grow your wealth in you may never appreciate that in a fiat system you will always have to take on some risk to grow your wealth…. This in it’s self is wrong as savers are punished and risk takers are bailed out. I own a home not a house. A home is a necessity a house is an investment. For this reason most people are a pay check away from been Homeless

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-15-bubbles