Soft landing

Well, this has been an interesting week. Was it only six days ago an unbuilt Van condo development in a smelly part of town sold out in four hours? At a numbing $670-a-foot?

You bet. Here’s the evidence.

Of course we now know fewer than 130 buyers managed to consumer 418 units, which leads to one conclusion: Most (if not all) of the horny people who camped out all night were amateur speculators, thinking they could buy units with weensy deposits, then flip them for giant profits when occupancy occurs in three years.

Pray for them, for they shalt be squished.

Hardly had the owners powerwashed the pee off the bushes around the presentation centre before the entire Canadian real estate environment started to crumble. Will F man up in his budget next Thursday and murder 30-year amortizations? Actually, it doesn’t matter anymore, because there are so many other leaks in the Titanic.

Like condo asphyxiation, which this weekend has developers across Toronto gasping. The national banking regulator finally managed to scare the big banks into slamming the brakes on runaway condo development in a city where supply will soon overwhelm demand. That will lead to failed projects, plunging condo values and an abrupt end to an extreme case of overbuilding.

Kicked around by OSFI (the bank cop), the Big Six are now refusing to hand over construction money unless developers can show more advance sales and deposits. Some banks are also telling developers they have to pony up more of their own equity, which has sent them scrambling to reign in suckers for syndicate mortgages.

Why would the feds pick on condos in such an obvious way? Because it’s widely believed in Toronto at least 80% of all sales are (like with that Vancouver project last weekend) made to speckers and flippers. This suggests when the market turns – and it will – significant numbers of buyers will vaporize, happier to leave their 20% on the table than close on a unit they know will never be cash-flow positive, and guarantee a capital loss upon selling.

But big-city condo developers soon won’t be the only ones pining for financing. Worse (far worse), CHMC has announced it’s dramatically scaling back on the number of new mortgages it’ll be insuring. Do not underestimate the impact of this. Nine of ten new mortgage originations in the past year have been ‘high-ratio,’ which means the borrowers have a down payment of less than 20% and therefore require insurance. No insurance, no loan.

As discussed here yesterday, CHMC has a limit of $600 billion for insurable mortgages. But our bubbly market, complete with frolicking virgins, bucolic bankers and scanty deposits, has meant it’s all but used up. So while most people had been expecting F just to snap his cute pixie-like digits and create more cash, apparently he won’t. This means two things. First, CMHC insurance will become increasingly rare and, second, if the banks want to continue giving fat mortgages to young people with no finances or savings, then they’ll have to shoulder more of the risk.

Will they do it? Sure, if the virgins are willing to pay an interest rate reflective of that risk, or go away and find a 20% down payment. So it’s not too hard to see what this will do to a housing market which has been fueled by the young & the horny.

But there’s more.

Three days ago I explained how new banking regulations, now in draft form, could alter the landscape, making people who bought houses in the last few years with tiny downs regret they ever did so. OSFI’s rules will not only force banks to more closely qualify borrowers and appraise houses (especially those ‘won’ in a bidding war), but they’ll dramatically affect mortgage renewals.

Banks would be forced to apply their LTV (loan-to-value) ratios to houses whenever a mortgage term expired. So if house prices fall, owners could face the cancellation of their loans unless they cough up money. Example: A $450,000 townhouse in Surrey bought with 5% down has a 95% LTV. If it’s worth $380,000 in five years, the maximum loan amount would fall from $427,500 to $361,000. To gain renewal, the owner would have to pay the difference, less the principal retired.

OSFI says it will collect comments on the proposals and enact them, as is or amended, by year’s end.

Finally, there’s already evidence Titanic is listing. Sales are off about 40% in Vancouver. New-build condo deals are down 59% in Toronto. GTA sales are 24% lower so far this year. And on Friday CREA suggested housing prices may have topped.

They rose in February at the slowest rate since last summer, making it the fourth month running of diminishing increases. Said the realtors, it’s “more evidence that the trend for Canadian home prices is slowing.”

So, if you were F would you mess with mortgages next week and turn yourself into a whipping boy for a housing market now sinking on its own?

  He may look like that Travelocity dude, but he ain’t stupid.

Now, lest anyone doubt what happens next, here’s another vid for you. It’s dawning on even Global TV that ever-rising real estate values don’t make cities more valuable, they choke them. By pushing average houses beyond the grasp of average families, bubble markets polarize wealth, rift generations and turn people racist. There is no good that flows from this.

And mercifully, it is ending.

272 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 03.23.12 at 8:46 pm

New preferreds. Interesting rate reset in 2017. Could hurt the company if rates spike up, going from fixed to floating.

“Canaccord has agreed to issue 4 million cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares, series C, to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC, Canaccord Genuity Corp. and RBC Capital Markets for distribution to the public.
The Series C Preferred Shares will be issued at a price of $25.00 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of $100 million. Holders of the Series C Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive fixed, cumulative, preferential dividends payable quarterly, yielding 5.75% annually for the initial period ending on June 30, 2017. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the five year Government of Canada bond yield plus 4.03%.”

A secure investment, paying 5.75% for five years, then a 4% premium over bonds, all with the dividend tax credit. This is why preferreds rock. — Garth

#2 Burnt Norton on 03.23.12 at 8:49 pm

Here’s a little weekend levity.

What can I say, slow day at the office.

One for the ladies:

http://youtu.be/PJ0ovbkP2X4

and one for the gents:

http://youtu.be/59j3-On6UnQ

#3 $$$BPOE#1 on 03.23.12 at 8:53 pm

Aren’t these the current rules already? Someone will always lend you money but you might pay abit more for it. Those poor poor Canadians. If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a million times Canadians have no business buying BPOE. It just plain costs too much based on what a Canadian makes. Sure, if you can handle the payments you can make out like a bandit. But folks, lets get real, Vancouver is for the pros for the creme de la creme not beer drinking hockey luvin Canadians.
******************************************
Banks would be forced to apply their LTV (loan-to-value) ratios to houses whenever a mortgage term expired. So if house prices fall, owners could face the cancellation of their loans unless they cough up money. Example: A $450,000 townhouse in Surrey bought with 5% down has a 95% LTV. If it’s worth $380,000 in five years, the maximum loan amount would fall from $427,500 to $361,000. To gain renewal, the owner would have to pay the difference, less the principal retired.

#4 TurnerNation on 03.23.12 at 9:01 pm

Garth, with the ongoing poor performance of these Tier 2 brokers like GMP Securities – who, like Canaccord is gobbling up other lines of businesses and companies – I’d be slightly concerned about their return on invested capital vs. the preferred’s rate.

Eg. Canaccord’s recent results:

Year-to-date fiscal 2012 compared with year-to-date fiscal 2011 (nine months ended Dec. 31, 2011, compared with nine months ended Dec. 31, 2010)

Revenue of $427.2-million, down 23 per cent or $128.8-million from $556.0-million;
Expenses of $413.3-million, down 12 per cent or $58.6-million from $471.9-million;
Net income of $10.4-million compared with net income of $58.4-million;
ROE of 1.3 per cent, down from 11.4 per cent;
Diluted EPS of nine cents compared with diluted EPS of 72 cents in the year-to-date fiscal 2011.

#5 GeneticistX on 03.23.12 at 9:05 pm

I was down in Liberty Village today in Toronto and my mouth dropped, there were like 5 condos in a row under construction. It was mind bending. The area did look busy, though, maybe the addage “if you build it they will come” may be true down there? But, I’ve lived here in tdot most of my life and ive never seen this before.

#6 Can it be? on 03.23.12 at 9:10 pm

Garth… I really hope you are right :)

#7 Can it be? on 03.23.12 at 9:11 pm

Love the picture tonight btw

#8 Ryan Perich on 03.23.12 at 9:11 pm

if the LTV on fallen house prices goes into effect, that will indeed be blamed for the severity of the downspiral of return of normal house evaluations to 2-3x annual income for a 10-20 year old house with a garage (ahhh, remember 1995-2004?)

IF it goes into effect, it won’t be for long. in the meantime, anybody who is forced to deal with it, will effectively have to declare bankruptcy. Even in Alberta – CMHC will force the lender to sue you for the shortfall if you try to walk away – I know, I tried this in 2007 when my non-existent fraudulent condo went rotton leaky and nobody to fix it after 9 months.

#9 GeneticistX on 03.23.12 at 9:12 pm

i watched one of those videos, interesting, yes. It did raise a question in my mind, now… What is the deal with property taxes on the properties that are being sold for inflated prices? Dont the property taxes reflect the value of the property? If someone sold their $500K house to someone for $1million dollars, does that mean the property taxes will be doubled by MPAC (in Toronto?) when the house sale gets registered with the city?

#10 Suede on 03.23.12 at 9:13 pm

Without access to MLX, anyone know where to get updated weekly RE stats on listings/sales and average days on market?

#11 Uh Oh Canada on 03.23.12 at 9:14 pm

Just watched the Global TV Video where they’re suggesting $10/day daycare in BC. Don’t do it! We have $5/day daycare in Quebec and guess who subsidizes it? The taxpayer. That means more taxes, more deficits, etc. And if you do your research, you’ll find out that our cheap daycare system is subsidized by the other provinces too.

#12 TurnerNation on 03.23.12 at 9:23 pm

Adding another link – the bloodbath that is GMP (their B prefs are yielding 5.85%):

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/gmp-cuts-everything-from-pay-to-charitable-giving/article2368864/?service=mobile

#13 new-era on 03.23.12 at 9:24 pm

ahhhh nothing like an enema to clean out the
Shhhhh- crap.

I hope your right Garth. I hope F & C slows down government interference and let the banks and the free market dictate prices and lending.

After all that is what Capitalism is all about.

#14 Liggsie on 03.23.12 at 9:24 pm

Let me get this straight: a surgeon and physiotherapist couple find Vancouver unaffordable? If they can’t afford, who can? The demographic consequences are going to be very significant in the next couple of decades.

How does the MSM not find this extremely troubling? It’s a crisis in waiting.

#15 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.23.12 at 9:25 pm

Maybe the private mortgage insurers will finally step up?

Why is there so little mention of Genworth and Canada Guaranty (the teachers pension plan acquisition of AIG’s mortgage insurance unit)? Is there a reason that these 2 providers can’t step in and fill the CMHC void?

#16 Van guy on 03.23.12 at 9:30 pm

“Pray for them, for they shalt be squished.”

I don’t think you or any blog dogs are going to pray for these clowns. Why would we kiss BPOE and his buddy’s stinking asses?

Amateur speckers is the correct word. The word out here that the fine print in the contracts for Marine Gateway states there will be future high rises north and west of the projects. There goes the view for a handful of units. If they can’t read, oh well. Hahah suckers.

#17 Thomas on 03.23.12 at 9:31 pm

Garth, why do you never mention Newfoundland? We have the highest prices in Atlantic Canada, but wages are not keeping up. Homes have tripled in 10 yrs.

You have homes? — Garth

#18 johnny5z on 03.23.12 at 9:35 pm

I’ve heard that builders will build as long as lenders will lend. We can add to that –

Borrowers will borrow as long as lenders will lend.

#19 Uh Oh Canada on 03.23.12 at 9:39 pm

Garth,

Why do you link only Global TV videos? Is there not a more credible source, maybe CBC?

This isn’t about credibility. — Garth

#20 @crazyfasteddy on 03.23.12 at 9:40 pm

Margin call. Pony up or have genitalia squeezed between the panini press… Speckers will be lighting their hair on fire and jumping in vats of gasoline in capitulation…

What’s amuses me is all the people on the sidelines hiding in the tall grass waiting to lop the heads off over-extended homeowners.. wanting for this to happen so they can buy up all the homes vis a vie dollar homes of the 80’s… Careful what you wish for pikers….

#21 Jon on 03.23.12 at 9:41 pm

I moved out to Fauxcouver in 1998…and watched this place go from already overrated to a ballooning lie. I moved out here originally as a national athlete, so unfortunately I had to stay here and train as we were centralized (mistake 1). I was an economics major at the time as well (mistake 2). Watching this place inflate just pissed me off. I found myself helpless and unable to speak my mind to the trust funders (mistake 3-don’t hang out with trust funders) I was surrounded by. I wish I moved many times over (mistake 4 – should have listened to myself). I stuck it out as I accepted a job which afforded me a great education, and good money in any other province. I happily never bought but I certainly feel jilted as to how my adulthood had been put on hold by over a decade due to global idiocy, boomer-tardation and hipster entitlement. What to do? I still want to move from here…only as it rains too much. But, a big part of me wants to watch the housing market tank and every consumptaholic over the age of 55 eat a big piece of go %&$* yourself pie. It’s hard when the minority thinkers of one generation (mine, 35 and under – pretty much useless – as they ate the shit their parents fed them) try to convince their parent (the most out of touch group of consumers) that their actions and policies are retarding their offspring. I want to leave Fauxcouver, but I also want to watch the fat lady sing…and there are a lot of those out here, you just couldn’t tell cause they’re all strapped in to their lululemons.

#22 Smartalox on 03.23.12 at 9:42 pm

@Vanguy, buildings to the north and west? At least the views of the pulp mill and waste transfer station (to the south and east, respectively).

#23 Devore on 03.23.12 at 9:45 pm

Flippers already hard at work before the ink on their contracts even dries.

Marine Gateway: http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/2916630369.html
TELUS Garden: http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/2895388482.html

#24 Bottoms_Up on 03.23.12 at 9:50 pm

LOL a surgeon and physiotherapist can’t make it in Vancouver….that speaks volumes.

Garth, you just keep needling F, it is quite hilarious. First a pecker, and now a garden gnome, I love it!

#25 Kevin on 03.23.12 at 9:51 pm

Feb 2012 mortgage numbers from the Bank of Canada are out. Year over year mortgage debt grew at 7.2% in Feb. Here is how mortgage debt growth looks like since Jan 2010.
http://tinyurl.com/7olkb7g

The peak rate of year over year mortgage credit growth since Jan 2010 was 7.8%, which happened in March, April and October of 2011. Going to 7.2% ( especially in Feb) is not really “softening” as we are led to believe.

#26 Devore on 03.23.12 at 9:56 pm

#15 T.O. Bubble Boy

Maybe the private mortgage insurers will finally step up?

Why is there so little mention of Genworth and Canada Guaranty (the teachers pension plan acquisition of AIG’s mortgage insurance unit)? Is there a reason that these 2 providers can’t step in and fill the CMHC void?

Hmm, lets think this through then.

CMHC exists.
Private insurers exist.
Why does CMHC still exist then?
Because private insurers don’t want to touch this market, not at these low low premiums, and not so indiscriminately.

In yesterday’s blog featured “moral hazard”. CMHC is the moral hazard provider, removing risk at cheaper than market rates (otherwise private insurers would be much more prominent).

#27 theshaj on 03.23.12 at 9:59 pm

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1149749–why-it-s-still-a-good-time-to-buy-a-home?bn=1

Surprise Surprise this guy comes up with another article as to why it’s never been a better time to buy a house.

#28 DonDWest on 03.23.12 at 9:59 pm

#14 Liggsie

Try to get a job in journalism under the age of 40 – you’ll understand. In fact, when is the last time you’ve seen anyone in journalism under the age of 40 doing a position of importance? Trust me, the only jobs they’ll give you are fluff in entertainment and tabloids. Politics? No young journalist will ever be allowed to touch that subject matter.

This of course skews the perspective of the mainstream media. I’ve lost count how many media presentations there have been about “young adults” without hearing/seeing a single young adult on the studio set. It’s fairly easy to tell the main stream media caters to a particular generation. So the concerns of the young are often left under the rug – often at the expense of the young. There’s a reason the “kids” are turning to the Internet.

In closing, I will say that the mainstream media is the most biggoted, agegist, condescending institution I’ve ever had the misfortune of encountering – it’s simply a crime to be under the age of 40 in that old boys/old girls club. Don’t be fooled by a lot of those dimwitted female broadcasters – they’re all women in their late 40’s to 50’s with more plastic surgery than a barbie doll.

#29 Cy on 03.23.12 at 10:00 pm

When a surgeon and physiotherapist can’t afford to live in Vancouver, two words, Dead Town.

#30 FI Guy on 03.23.12 at 10:06 pm

Half of CMHC insured mortgages (~$275 billion) are actually “portfolio insured” by the banks. Once this insurance amortizes off over the next few years, CMHC’s intention is to use it for new homebuyers (and not allow banks to portfolio insure as much as previously). CMHC still has a one to three years worth of room to help fuel the market with insured 5% down payment mortgages. Of course, perhaps the market will still crash before then for other reasons.

#31 FI Guy on 03.23.12 at 10:13 pm

Portfolio insurance providers do not charge appropriate rates on insurance. Fees for insuring even 80% LTV mortgages can be as little as 0.10-0.15% per year. That’s incredible when you consider the risks involved and compare it to insurance paid on guaranteeing relatively safe bonds around the world.

The reason for the unprofitable rates charged are due to the assumption that the default rates in the past will be representative of the future. That’s simply not going to be the case.

#32 Devore on 03.23.12 at 10:16 pm

Interesting observations about the Marine Drive sale:

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/03/whats-wrong-with-this-picture.html

Some good links and information in the last couple of days over at VCI.

#33 Fred on 03.23.12 at 10:24 pm

So a surgeon and a PT (combined income approx. $400k) can’t afford it in Vancouver.

According to BPOE “Vancouver is for the pros for the creme de la creme not beer drinking hockey luvin Canadians.” Sounds like only Smoking Man and his door-to-door vacuum cleaner salesman progeny deserve to live there.

And Vancouver deserves to have them.

#34 Mark on 03.23.12 at 10:26 pm

The real news that the vid revealed is the demographic birth rate. A population needs at least 2.5 children per couple to sustain its current population. A growth rate of only 1.5 means that the population can only expand via immigration. That is the future of Canada, Europe and the USA. Math is math and that is why Australia and Russia are paying young couples thousands of dollars just to have children. This crash of housing and the overall western economy has thusfar been amazing. We are mere months away from it becoming epic.

#35 John G. Young on 03.23.12 at 10:26 pm

#30 Cy on 03.23.12 at 10:00 pm

“When a surgeon and physiotherapist can’t afford to live in Vancouver, two words, Dead Town.”

Didn’t you read $$$BPOE#1’s post? Clearly these people are just “beer drinking hockey luvin Canadians” (the video certainly confirms that!), they’re not the “creme de la creme”.

Makes you wonder who IS…

#36 r on 03.23.12 at 10:28 pm

as if $10/day childcare would lower the cost of housing. is that the best a professor at ubc can suggest? how exactly does that lower the cost of housing? it doesn’t.

#37 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.23.12 at 10:30 pm

“BOOM TO DOOM?”

Friday night: a Global TV news font presages sea-state change in Vancouver real estate? Yep.

At last! A news items on the mighty Global BC TV news Hour warning of a real estate armageddon in our fair province, or should that be JUST the City of Vancouver?

Matters not a whit!

“Bad Things” Vancouver real estate must be really getting underway this weekend when Global TV FINALLY starts shifting its housing prices always-go-up mantra, into housing prices are kinda not-going-up forever.

The other factor indicating that things are about to go completely hay-wire in that village on the edge of the rain forest were the verbal perambulations of CKNW’s “economist in chief” Michael Levy, broadcast during in this story.

Weasel words telling a story that is unfolding: 10 to 15 per cent housing price correction; condo market overbuilt; “market is heavy right now.”

Those of you who just finished buying in that debt-sodden berg, please listen up.

Mr. Levy has been using “understatement” words for decades. Always carefully couched except when he knows things are coming completely unglued, to wit 2008. Then he lets loose with a verbal barrage that will pin you ears back. That “other shoe” is coming, soon. But Garth has already beaten him to the punch, long ago.

Mr. Levy will have more to says in the coming days, I’m sure.

But for now he is predicting a real estate Black Swan event.

Find religion, all of you debt-soaked sinners. Light a candle, pray and kiss it all good-bye.

This is an economic catastrophe in the making. It will damage everything.

#38 ex bc boy on 03.23.12 at 10:32 pm

wow, a surgeon and physiotherapist cant make it in vancity. Sad,very sad. Come to AB! we could use you.
Garth I am going to look at three condos in Red Deer this weekend. Just kicking tires. I know your comments ctr around mostly 3 key(crazy!) cities. I dont expect you to know all. But in my case should I be waiting too.

Why Red Deer? — Garth

#39 squidly77 on 03.23.12 at 10:38 pm

Wanna see failed condos, check out Tricos Sherwood project in Calgary. Bust.

#40 truth hammer on 03.23.12 at 10:39 pm

But Garth, the suckers abound. We seem to have produced a bumper crop of mindless me generation dilletantes…..long on ‘me’….and short on ‘life skills of any kind’.

http://life.nationalpost.com/2012/03/23/street-smarts-the-core-condo-score/

lets assume that ‘baby makes three’ in most cases…as Dr. Foote ( noom bust echo demographic whiz) has already pointed out….these 600 sq ft ‘flex space’ no bedroom condo’s are functionally obselete….before they’re built….let alone occupied.

So when we get fluffy fluff pieces like the one attached……welll……you have to laugh…and cry….for which part of the Canadian demographic scene pays for the insidious nonsense being spewed by the media……doggy….baby……husband….wifey…….or all four? ‘Cause kids…….you can’t raise a family in a concrete litter box without someone getting jiggy with a bad case of cabin fever.

I say to the media…….and the greedy shitty councils who have dreamed up these revenue scores…by reducing the FSR of condo towers to garner more tax bux…my usual response…..bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah !

Not only will the $500,000 dollar mortgage make all the dancing and restaurant outings a distant dream…but screaming babies in a ‘flex space’ apt….will certainly drive either mommy, daddy…or poochy to do a runner.

The ‘Entitlement generation’ points at all the Bommers Issues’ as insurmountable…….hahahahahahahahaaha…..they’ve got a freaking volcano of issues rising out of their delicate muck. It should be interesting.

#41 Narrowgate on 03.23.12 at 10:40 pm

I like how you mentioned the Titanic in tonight’s post. We are coming up to the 100th anniversary of its sinking on, I believe, April 15. I know the Canadian housing market has already hit the iceburg so it shouldn’t be long now. Maybe James Cameron will make a movie about it.

#42 neta on 03.23.12 at 10:43 pm

It looks like F is genuinely amazed that Bankers are asking him to tighten mortgage rules. According to F, it is their business, not his…
Dead Square on target, Mr. Flaherty! Indeed, it is their business to cook mortgages. However, it is YOUR business to back-stop all risks!!! Do you know what all your guarantees mean?
Let me explain it to you. About 18 years ago my sister- in-law decided to buy a car – $14.000 Cavalier, and since she couldn’t secure a financing, she asked me to be a guarantor…. I never had any problem with her meeting monthly payments; however, when in 1 year I decided to buy a condo, despite me tabling 25% of the value, TD refused to forfeit Insurance requirement sighting that I learned that I had 14,000 debt (!)
Your guarantees are your debt, Mr. F (or our debt!)
Until you shoulder the risk, Banks cannot and will not regulate themselves. Banks are fighting tooth and nail for market share, and it is their duty to their shareholders to maximize their returns. Moreover, it is illegal for banks to collude to tighten rules. Yes, they are very concerned about the real estate mushroom cloud, and they are asking Fed to save them from themselves. And what is F’s response?…
I wonder how Mr. Flaherty’s will be viewed in Canadian history.

#43 not 1st on 03.23.12 at 10:47 pm

Garth, people cannot just walk on their deposit anymore. There is legal precedent of developers successfully suing people and forcing them to close on the deals.

Nobody can make you close on anything. — Garth

#44 JIM on 03.23.12 at 10:48 pm

A real estate broker told me that CMHC insures prime mortgages. It’s true that if you put 20% + down you don’t have to insure the loan, but the mortgage issuer can take out CMHC insurance on your behalf , and pay the premiums.

#45 Canadian Watchdog on 03.23.12 at 10:49 pm

#31 FI Guy

CMHC’s coverage is based on capital reserves, not their debt ceiling. A 10-15% correction will wipe them out, thus, a bailout is imminent.

#15 T.O. Bubble Boy

Teachers Pension purchased Genworth Life Insurance, not their mortgage division. Jim Leech isn’t that stupid.

“Is there a reason that these 2 providers can’t step in and fill the CMHC void?”

Yes. Private insures are only 90% backed by the government and do not have AAA ratings, meaning investors will want more return for the risk, however in most cases, institutional, pension and other governments are restricted from buying any securities and bonds less then AAA rating and have a non-legislative framework (senior protection in the event of bankruptcy).

This is the center of the next week’s budget.

#46 John in Montreal on 03.23.12 at 10:55 pm

# 22 @Jon.

Please don’t generalize about “Boomers”. We are NOT all like your stereotypical representation of us. Gosh I hate that word, boomer.

#47 palebird on 03.23.12 at 10:59 pm

Yes renewals are going to be a laugh. Currently residing in a northern city where prices are so out of touch it is scary. And I watch these people buy with basically nothing in the bank. Are they ever screwed.

#48 neta on 03.23.12 at 11:01 pm

Mr. Flaherty is monitoring the market, redy to tighten rules if necessary…
It implies to me that he still don’t see it being necessary…, at least, not yet.
According to F, housing market plays to much of a role in our economy to allow any slow down.
Way to go, dear Leader, way to go!. Just throw another shovel of coal into the burner!

#49 John H on 03.23.12 at 11:05 pm

I graduated from high school in this city in 1980 and out of the 300 or so members of my grad class I would say that no more than 20 or 25 of them now own a house in the neighborhood we grew up in.
We are not all stupid and lazy.
The laughable irony is that at the 30th high school reunion that almost all of the people present came from other areas of the Lower Mainland for the reunion.
One guy I know from my class who is a lawyer mentioned to me one day that he could never afford the house he grew up in, and his father now retired was a blue collar tradesman.
For him to ever get near the old neighborhood, well, someone’s gotta die first.
In fact that is exactly how some of my classmates are now moving back to the area they grew up in, but none of them will admit to that.
It’s just a big coincidence that they move back a few months after someone kicks off.
The guts of the middle class in this city have been ripped right out of it.
I know at least 18 people who have left Vancouver simply because they realized at some point that they were NEVER going to own a house here, and spending the rest of their lives in a over mortgaged rabbit hutch was not acceptable.
Many of them are now in Alberta.
I have read that 55,000 people under the age of 45 have left Vancouver.
Vancouver is the most over rated city on earth.
Like a Hollywood movie set where the street scene looks real, if you step behind the facade of the Vancouver illusion then things here are really quite ugly.
There are a lot of serious social problems in this city that no one wants to admit exist because the Vancouver illusion must be maintained at all costs.
However, some of those problems erupted with full furry during the Stanley Cup Riots.
The rage and hostility like a hot volcano bubbles just beneath the surface here as the gap between the halves and the have-nots continues to widen in a city that has no real middle class anymore.
Vancouver is a paper moon city = as phony as phony can get!

#50 Realtors in a panic. Canada biggest housing bubble on earth on 03.23.12 at 11:11 pm

Canada is in a monster housing ponzi never seen in its history. The numbers and facts don’t like only realtors and other vested interests do. The CONs have gambled $600,000,000,000.00 dollars on housing on deadbeat who will go bankrupt once the credit stops. People will borrow borrow borrow until they go bankrupt. You criminal backward thinking selling out Canadian CONs who hates Canada and Canadians and are heading down the road to bankrupt Canada. Stop CHMC now before Canada is finished.

#51 Skatch on 03.23.12 at 11:13 pm

Now is your time to say……… “I told you so!”

Thank you for making this blog. I have been reading it for a long time and you have saved me thousands.

#52 not 1st on 03.23.12 at 11:16 pm

Nobody can make you close on anything. — Garth

______

Correction, not suing to force closing on the property…suing for the difference of purchase price and whatever the developer chooses to dump your unit for when they have to resell it, even if they firesale it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/01/22/bc-developer-lawsuit-presale-contract-deposits.html

I am well aware of the legal options. — Garth

#53 Don on 03.23.12 at 11:24 pm

Happen to be in vancouver today. Used to live in Kits.

Beautiful Day

Feels like Vancouver in the 90’s. I got the sense that reality was setting in. The hustle and bussle somewhat diminished. Reminded me of a small town, in August when most town folk are away on Vacation or like Qualicum Beach at 7pm in the summer when most are in bed.

#54 Jon on 03.23.12 at 11:27 pm

To neta…Flaherty won’t be mentioned in the history books…this is all going under the carpet.

#55 Canadian Watchdog on 03.23.12 at 11:29 pm

Here are yearly returns based on the average condo price within Toronto’s C.E.W. (excluding 905). Data is calculated using 2011 annual average price compared to the last 6 years. http://i39.tinypic.com/152kcwx.png

TREB Area Map: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/buying/district_map/index.htm

#56 Era of Low Interest Rates Ending on 03.23.12 at 11:36 pm

Here’s an interesting read:

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/era-of-low-interest-rates-ending-analysts-2

“Already, financial markets have priced in a close to 50 per cent chance that Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will start hiking his one per cent policy setting before the year’s end, they note.”

“You can get a five-year rate for 2.99 per cent. Today’s inflation rate was 2.6 per cent; that’s almost unheard of that you can borrow for basically the cost of inflation. I don’t believe it’s sustainable.”

#57 earlymidlifecrisis on 03.23.12 at 11:46 pm

‘OSFI says it will collect comments on the proposals and enact them, as is or amended, by year’s end.’

Who are they collecting comments from? I’m not sure I’m grasping the entire proposal yet, but on the surface the LTV change seems like it will really screw a lot of people. Poor Dr having to leave van. I’m not minimizing it as I’m in a similar boat (though the row with oars type, not the cruiser with wine fridge) They should try living here on a non surgeons salary. Wonder why the media never does stories like that on people that cant afford to rent here? I’ll be out of here soon too i hope. Nothing special about Vancouver. To quote a friend, “take away the oceans and the mountains and it may as well be Calcutta”

#58 ozy - market has crashed, wait 3 months before scopping bargains on 03.23.12 at 11:50 pm

Conservants F&H are now scared like SHIIIIT because the Toronto market have descented more than minus 50-60% in new buldings sold (condo and freehold combined) in FEB 2012.

This is a HUGE HUGE drop (WORSE than Florida 2008-2009 combined) and they are trying to prop the market for the builders not to bankrupt en mass.

Here are the OFFICIAL numbers, don’t let any agentolos sucker you otherwise:
http://www.bildgta.ca/media_releases_2012_detail.asp?id=872

#59 joe on 03.23.12 at 11:55 pm

Its pretty obvious by the comments made by F that he will not slash the 30 yr. mortgage, and banks will not be forced to apply their LTV (loan-to-value) ratios to houses whenever a mortgage term expires by the OSFI. The later would completely devastate the housing market which is propping up the fragile Canadian economy, there is no way F or the OSFI would allow this to happen as much as I would like to see the market correct to reality. If the OSFI had a problem with mortgage rules they would have implemented more prudent lending practices in 2007 when the last bubble peaked. My prediction is that this bubble will pop without government intervention, although it was fostered by our governments actions our government will not intervene which shows us all how fragile the situation really is.

#60 ozy - Tello your friends this: Developer sues condo pre-sale buyers on 03.24.12 at 12:06 am

This will take further momentum from the real estate market. Suing buyers will make it harder to attrack buyers. Short sighted in that makes it harder for the developer to turn a profit in future years. It will be an effective means to provide downward pressure on the market..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/01/22/bc-developer-lawsuit-presale-contract-deposits.html

#61 thinker on 03.24.12 at 12:14 am

All I can say is Garth, that is one sad story about a couple with 3 little ones who are not able to give kids a desired life after going to school and landing great jobs. You are right, this will create a city full of upset folks.

#62 Vita on 03.24.12 at 12:19 am

Hi Garth,
Thank you for your quick and wise response. I sold my gold and silver today.
I have another question. What do you think about Canadian dollar vs US dollar in 5-7 year time frame? Is it possible that economy will be drag down by real estate plunge? May be it would be better to get some US dollar dominated assets(i mean fixed income in USD). What do you think?

#63 First Wave Boomer on 03.24.12 at 12:20 am

They must be getting desperate as they have found a new source of buyers, Singles as young as 20. Also 3 couples getting together to buy a SFH. Do you think they will still be on friendly terms if values tank. We need more froth for the bubble.

I was wrong 2 years ago when I thought houses in Vcr would never touch one mil. Maybe I will be wrong to think they will not touch 1.5 mil. http://eedition.vancouver.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer.asp

#64 Randman on 03.24.12 at 12:25 am

“every consumptaholic over the age of 55 eat a big piece of go %&$* yourself pie”

Hahaha ..permission to use this in an appropriate situation?

Anyways ……Warning to condo owners in BC
New legislation requiring CRF depreciation reports
is here!

At a cost of $5000 -$15000 for a first report and minimum 50% every three years you’ll get to find out
that your condo strata property is gonna need an
increase of minimum 10% and probably 60% more than you are now paying in monthly fees to maintain
a proper financial roadmap for the next 30 years.

How is that gonna sit for your bottom line?

Hell on earth is coming to a tower near you….

#65 Vita on 03.24.12 at 12:31 am

correction:

US dollar *denominated* assets

#66 The Thing in the Basement on 03.24.12 at 12:34 am

47 John in M – dont take it too personally. You’ll discover that “boomer” isn’t so much an age term, as it is a socioeconomic one. Try equating “boomer” with the
economic boom, or the real estate boom, and picture any family or middle-aged couple who participated in the excess as “boomers”. I remember bloggers talking
about “boomers” in their 30s, and also in their 70s. Another irony is boomers at either end of the
age cohort talking about “those boomers”.

If you read many of the most negative comments
on “boomers” you will often find a very personal
experience, maybe even tied to family, that has lead to
forming their opinion.

#67 Onemorething on 03.24.12 at 12:44 am

The only credible source today is yourself facing the reality not just simply the downturn in RE but a huge global slowdown which will reset the developed countries and put the developing one’s on their ears!

5 years of pain and stupidity awaits you. Another decade of bottom bouncing to reset the whole mess.

What side do you want to be on? I know where I’ll be, and ready to strike!

#68 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.24.12 at 12:47 am


“And mercifully, it is ending.” — What? Today’s blog entry? Is the sun not going to crash into the sea and be extinguished?!

“Finally, there’s already evidence Titanic is listing. But there’s more. Pray for them, for they shalt be squished. So it’s not too hard to see what this will do to a housing market which has been fueled by the young & the horny. Actually, it doesn’t matter anymore, because there are so many other leaks in the Titanic.” — Precisely. There’s a whole bunch of unknowns, yet to happen, which will affect us one way or the other.
*
NAmerica next MEast? China – Iran Business is business; Greece Remember them? Apple Flash Crash vs. Silver Flash Smash; Three Years Western debts / deficits; Stealing Credit Cards But the Chinese are our friends! Investor Behavior.

Goldilocks is a conspiracy theory, not a fairy tale; Junior Mining Has potential; Gasoline and the global wealth shift; Gold Miners Time is ripe; Private Jets Beats flying commercial! Most Amazing economics site; Yukon Gold; Decoupling New term for divorce; Common Sense Don’t look to politicos for that; Shilling House prices to slide 20%; Another scam? Blows up anyway.
*
Smoking Man Imagine if . . . . We don’t need no education; Titanic Talk of the devil; Sports Car returns after 70 years; Radioactive From the US govt., it appears that radioactivity has spread; Record Gun Orders and Obomba’s New E.O. Is this another way of slowing gun sales? 2:45 clip Speaking of guns, this IS the mother of all guns; Japan – NKorea Seems everyone’s getting their knickers in a twist; Water Wars between nations next.

#69 Jonathan on 03.24.12 at 1:07 am

Hi everyone I have been a long time reader. Garth e t c. Check out whistler condo prices compared to the height of the Olympics. A lot of coworkers have started buying. Sub 200k condos north of 300k at the Olympics. Nobody has been talking about this bit 30% drops there have definitely occurred. I am pretty sure this was talked about Here before the Olympics . cheers Jon

#70 Jane on 03.24.12 at 1:24 am

We too are leaving Vancouver. Cost of living and housing (both rent and mortgage) is too much for us. I’m looking forward to having some cash at the end of each month.

#71 $$$BPOE#1 on 03.24.12 at 1:30 am

Your post makes no sense. Early 80’s interest rates were high but shortly after subsided and houses were affordable. Your classmates couldn’t afford a $110 grand house at 10.75%
*****************************************
John H on 03.23.12 at 11:05 pm
I graduated from high school in this city in 1980 and out of the 300 or so members of my grad class I would say that no more than 20 or 25 of them now own a house in the neighborhood we grew up in.

#72 debtified on 03.24.12 at 1:32 am

Garth, H & F are doing it all according to plan.

They got the party started (0% down, 40yr amort). Together with their cohorts (big banks and CMHC) they entice as many people as possible to join in. Let somebody else supply the booze (BoC record low interests). Happy owners make for happy voters.

Winning! (majority)

When the party is starting to get out of control, send somebody else to pull the plug (The Bank Cop). Poor GreaterFools become prisoners of their own greed. Guess who comes to their rescue with a bailout? Yep, the Harper Government. They already how they are going to play this and make themselves look good. And I bet good money that it will happen just before the elections. Ever wonder why the OSFI is just making their move now (this has been a problem since at least 2007)? It’s perfect timing. By the time 2015 comes along, your 15% price decline will be a reality and the GreaterFools will be looking for a saviour. Classic. Predictable.

You are a great public servant, Garth. But Harper is a much better politician than you. Please don’t change. Thank you.

#73 Where's The Money Guido??? on 03.24.12 at 1:53 am

Re; #38 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.23.12 at 10:30 pm Michael Levy (and his bum buddy-Michael Campbell (former BC Premier thief Guido Campbelli’s brother)) is an unrepentant shill for his masters of larceny in Vancouver.
This guy has been spouting lies for years on the once proud radio station CKNW, which used to have unbiased reporting, but has stabbed listeners in the throat for the last 10 years that the provincial thieving Lieberals have been in power here in BC.
They even gave the now un-elected Premier a talk show before she was Premier even though she had no experience (a gift from a behind the scenes bureaucRAT, Patrick Kinsella, who is really running BC into the ground and was a back room dealer who gave away our provincial railroad to CN Rail after Guido Campbell promised he would do no such thing before getting elected in 2001). Kin “sell”a railroad miraculously moved from a bungalow in the south side of Surrey into an $8 million mansion in Shaughnessy (the creme de la creme of Vancouver old money) soon after. One of the major contributors to the Lieberals was none other than the head of CN Rail, David McLean.
And Mr. Levy has his nose right up CKNW’s patooty to get so much time on this radio station and the TV station Global (Glo-bull) BC, who are spewing nothing but lies whenever they have anyone from their station utter a word of how great the RE market is in the Vancouver area.
If anyone wants to read how a government can thieve every public asset and play its taxpayers for fools (3 times and maybe a fourth with Crusty (never missed a photo-op I don’t have to speak at) Campbell Clark!!!), please check out Alex Tsakumis’ website, he has all the documentation of how these BC Lieberal gov’t thieves have been doing it for over 10 years.
And the RCMP are doing these Lieberal cockroaches bidding also by not charging the then Deputy Premier Crusty Clark when they had evidence!!!!!!!!
Time for a revolt!!!!!! Guillotine !!!!!!

#74 Had enough... on 03.24.12 at 2:12 am

#50…John H…EXACTLY!
Well said.

#75 Mark on 03.24.12 at 2:32 am

#31, “Half of CMHC insured mortgages (~$275 billion) are actually “portfolio insured” by the banks. Once this insurance amortizes off over the next few years, CMHC’s intention is to use it for new homebuyers (and not allow banks to portfolio insure as much as previously). CMHC still has a one to three years worth of room to help fuel the market with insured 5% down payment mortgages. Of course, perhaps the market will still crash before then for other reasons.”

I doubt they’ll actually make it. Those mortgages are ‘portfolio insured’ for a reason — the reason being that the banks are confident that they will end up in negative equity when the downturn arrives. I’ve heard that mortgages with as much as 40-50% equity, issued to, among other people, civil servants, have been CMHC-insured — so the banks are really preparing for a cataclysmic crash here.

Once the peak of the outstanding credit has been reached (ie: probably now), banks will likely be relentless in expanding spreads and shifting their preference away from RE lending. RE is the new toxic asset class (much like tech stocks and tech firms a decade ago). The banks actually earn more if they turn their back on RE lending altogether. Higher dividends to come from the banks for sure, as they don’t need huge amounts of capital in order to backstop a market that is in a lending contraction.

#76 Where's The Money Guido??? on 03.24.12 at 2:43 am

Re: 15 These pretzels are making me thirsty on 03.22.12 at 7:58 pm
Does that mean that at least some of what you said in your post yesterday is not going to happen? Did I waste my time reading it

That post was about OSFI proposals. This is about CHMC. Too many letters for you? — Garth

Take a look at the OFSI. Filled to the brim with ex-bankers. Believe me, if you have a complaint against any bank or Credit Union, they will be sure to bury it under a mountain of “I don’t give a shite”. Take it from me, I have had the pleasure of dealing with these f^%*ers before (in 2008), along with the numerous other agencies (IIROC, BSCS, MFDA, IDA, the OSC) that have a bureaucracy supposedly watching to see you don’t get ripped off. Almost to a person, everyone was a former banker and was placed there by a banker friend…..

#77 Sgip on 03.24.12 at 2:50 am

DELETED

#78 Monster Cookie on 03.24.12 at 3:10 am

In Vancouver parents will soon have to apply to the BC government to have only one child. Lots of girls will be aborted, just like China.

Ni how ma.
Hun how sia sia.

#79 scib on 03.24.12 at 3:58 am

Globals eye opening video shows that F’s housing policy has probably killed more babies than Morgantaler.

#80 TRT on 03.24.12 at 4:07 am

Good post Garth,

I was wondering today why banks would cut back on construction financing for condos. I’m going to take a different view on why…because I feel wiser after all the Glenfiddich… should try some Junius!!

Anyways, is it possible that banks are trying to constrain supply in the coming years? They know 280,000 permanent residents are coming to Canada each each along with many temporary foreign workers/students thus this will create a shortage iin a few years time.

Rather than rebuking this, can anyone add to or take away from this comment? After all, remember who is in bed with the banks…don’t be fooled!

#81 Fifty-fourth on 03.24.12 at 5:17 am

2012 – The year that will go down in infamy!

#82 Pedro South (My cousin is Peter North) on 03.24.12 at 5:20 am

Garth “The ice is going to break!” Turner, I don’t have time today to make jokes about Smoking Man. Sure, I could say how when he wears a pair of shorts, his legs look like a pair of condoms stuffed with Stilton cheese, but there’s no more time left! The Housing Market in Canada is going to collapse! You’re like Christopher Walken in The Dead Zone. People, if you know a property developer or some very large, bald headed man whose last name is of a baby sheep, we need to save them. Do what you can. I’m going to go to Open Houses and slip copies of today’s blog entry into the info sheets that agents put out.

Garth, you are the NEW Don Cherry!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJfXfMmbh4o&feature=related

You’re welcome, Ladies.

#83 Buyright on 03.24.12 at 5:31 am

Strong Meds needed for this RE Mkt

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/strong-medicine-urged-for-a-fevered-real-estate-market/article2370040/

#84 Marco on 03.24.12 at 6:05 am

Hey BPOE, it is one thing that you spew stupidity. Your statement is deeply insulting. I am a new immigrant and not yet a Canadian. Vancouver IS what it is ever it is because of Canadians of whatever ethnicity. The VAST majority or RE is owned, mortgaged or rented by Canadians. If you keep up this drivel, not only will you reaffirm you are a complete moron who does not understand economic, market which is entirely your perogative and a right i will fight on your behalf dor tou to have (despite your wasting of that privilege)or behavioral fundamentals but when you state that a part of this country is now no longer for the people OF this country, then Sir, I will call you out for what you are … A wimpy, ignorant, bigoted individual who absolutely lost all credibility.

You had entertainment value thus far, now that expired too!

I’m sure all here have varying opinions,
But on this statement, I am willing tI ask for support for fear you just brought the spirit of this forum into disrepute with that very nationally inflammatory statement.

Moron!

#85 House on 03.24.12 at 6:20 am

Except that Banks can still remember the $75 Billion F took off their hands in 2008. Who thinks they don’t believe that he will do the same in their next “crisis” to keep the monetary sysytem rosey.

#86 live within your means on 03.24.12 at 7:55 am

#11 Uh Oh Canada on 03.23.12 at 9:14 pm
Just watched the Global TV Video where they’re suggesting $10/day daycare in BC. Don’t do it! We have $5/day daycare in Quebec and guess who subsidizes it? The taxpayer. That means more taxes, more deficits, etc. And if you do your research, you’ll find out that our cheap daycare system is subsidized by the other provinces too.

………………………….

A few years back my B&SIL paid $7/a day for daycare while during part of this period they were earning $120K+. plus the daycare was across the st. I thought this was ridiculous. I certainly support subsidized daycare, but only if the household income is below a certain level.

My neighbour’s son pays $1,500/mo daycare for 2 children in Dartmouth.

#87 I'm stupid on 03.24.12 at 7:56 am

A surgeon and physiotherapist can’t afford a house? Are the homeless in Vancouver millionaires? Is $1000 the going rate for squeegee kids in Vancouver? With the cost of housing being so high it must be. Does the Walmart greeter make 500k a year?

#88 GeneticistX on 03.24.12 at 8:08 am

i looked it up. my house that went from 465k that i bought it for to 535k (MPAC valuation) had a property tax increase of about 15% over the 6 years i owned it. I just sold it for 865k, which would mean that the property taxes would go up 60% over 5 years to an extra about 300 per month after the 4 year cycle.

#89 Deb on 03.24.12 at 8:35 am

First of all, I nominate Julie Dickson, the head of the OSFI, as person of the week. Although I continue to believe that the proposed guidelines should have been put into effect five years ago rather than (likely) at the end of this year, better late than never.

Secondly, I have spoken with several people over the course of the week who don’t seem to know much, if anything, about the following: that the OSFI even exists, what it is, what it’s function is, the power that it holds, and the potential outcome of its decisions on the banks, the real estate market and the Canadian economy as a whole. I’ve tried to explain by saying that if this were a hockey game, the OSFI would be the most important component because it has the power to set the rules of the game and to change the rules of the game whenever it finds it necessary to do so. I suspect that even Aristotle would be impressed with the degree of power and influence that this body wields. This is why the press release from the OSFI is the most significant news event of the week.

#90 Steven Rowlandson on 03.24.12 at 9:29 am

Now, lest anyone doubt what happens next, here’s another vid for you. It’s dawning on even Global TV that ever-rising real estate values don’t make cities more valuable, they choke them. By pushing average houses beyond the grasp of average families, bubble markets polarize wealth, rift generations and turn people racist. There is no good that flows from this.

And mercifully, it is ending. — Garth

People don’t turn racist, they are all naturally racist.
Some times it is just less obvious that’s all.

As for real estate bubbles ending don’t expect it to end quickly. Expect much resistance to dropping prices from realtors , banks and home owners…
They like profiting from financial buggery too much to easily repent of their sins.
Therefore to get back to a proper price one or two zeros needs to be knocked off the price through buyers doing extreme low balling of their offers enmass.
Why buyers would meet or exceed the asking price for hyperinflated real estate is beyond me unless one they don’t know any better and have money to burn or two, they are not playing with a full deck.

There will be no affordable housing untill a man can buy a decent house and start a family on $10.25 an hour.

Owning a house is not a right. In major cities, ten bucks and hour will never cut it. — Garth

#91 live within your means on 03.24.12 at 9:33 am

#74 Where’s The Money Guido??? on 03.24.12 at 1:53 am

From what I’ve read about the Liberals in BC they only use the name Liberals, just like the Cons federally, who are not the old Progressive Conservatives, but the CRAP party – both wolves in sheep’s clothing.

#92 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.24.12 at 9:43 am

Did anyone (global tv) consider that the low birthrate could be tied to the fact that many residents of Vancouver proper are “temporary” in one way or another?

You’ve got offshore millionaires with Vancouver as their 2nd or 3rd home, twenty-somethings from around the world who are just “hanging out” for a few years as they bounce from country to country, and kids/wives of offshore millionaires who are either past the age of having children or are heading back after University.

This is reality when you are a “leisure city”. What’s the birth rate in Monaco?

#93 unbalanced on 03.24.12 at 9:43 am

Alot of comments on this blog are ” this is not a right”. What is a right then? I work, I pay taxes. With the money left over I can buy what ever I want. Is that my right?

#94 SCalgary on 03.24.12 at 9:57 am

Garth,

“A $450,000 townhouse in Surrey bought with 5% down has a 95% LTV. If it’s worth $380,000 in five years, the maximum loan amount would fall from $427,500 to $361,000. To gain renewal, the owner would have to pay the difference, less the principal retired.”

Is it not the case right now? I thought banks will never renewal/lend money more than your house is worth of.

Thanks a lot Garth…!

Best Regards…

#95 Adviser on 03.24.12 at 9:58 am

Some input please:

A client asked if they should keep the mortgage at 2.3 (fully open variable, 15 months remaining) or lock in at 2.99 for 5 years. No fees associated with the transaction. Loan to Value of about 30%. Decent cash flow, no other debt.

Anyone?

#96 Daisy Mae on 03.24.12 at 9:59 am

“He may look like that Travelocity dude, but he ain’t stupid.”

***********************

Well, actually, he IS stupid….for allowing this to happen in the first place. There are many other suitable adjectives for the little twerp.

#97 dd on 03.24.12 at 10:07 am

The US is recovering … The US is recovering.

BS. The banks stress is tested at ultra low interest rates. What a sham.

http://www.europac.net/commentaries/stress_tests_no_sweat

#98 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.24.12 at 10:13 am

There are surprisingly few gold bugs on this blog recently… either Garth is still deleting all of the comments, or they are waking up to news like this:

India increasing gold duties & reducing gold imports:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/16/the-worlds-largest-gold-importer-wants-to-slam-on-the-brakes/

No new deletions, just capitulations. — Garth

#99 Smoking Man on 03.24.12 at 10:32 am

Reading Garth and some of the posts this week I defiantly noticed more aggression, excitement, the anticipation, the waiting just a wee bit more…….and we will win

You bubble heads remind me of Leaf fans earlier in the year. Planning the Stanley cup party, with out a fat lady in sight. Ba hahahahahah

I don’t know the herd, outside of the GTA. But I do know TO

Many of you bet against housing around here, and you lost by sitting on the sidelines,
Your only hope for vengeance and vindication among your garnet owning peers is a meltdown.
Bubble Heads are like die hard Leaf Fans, There is always next year

Lets look at facts Jack.

No one is selling,
GTA population growing exponentially.

Big money from Asia, California, and Long Island finding it’s way to the big smoke.

No supply and massive demand.

A population base that only knows real estate, afraid of any other investments.

A Population when in 2008 faced a bombardment of Gloom and Doom and a softening market, took houses of the market.

A schooling system that serves out young dumbed down people every year to fuel the Market.

In Toronto renters are screwed.

#100 $$$BPOE#1 on 03.24.12 at 10:33 am

Looks like housing starts fell in the US. I’m not being allowed to post the most damning video confirming my belief in Vancouver so just google search Geithner Gowdy debt ceiling.
U.S. Homebuilding
In the U.S., a Commerce Department report showed that housebuilding in the world’s largest economy unexpectedly fell in February. Housing starts dropped to a 698,000 annual rate last month from a revised 706,000 pace in January. That fell short of the median estimate of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, climbed to the highest level since October 2008.

#101 Burnt Norton on 03.24.12 at 10:38 am

For the blog dogs’ perusal, here’s the latest from the Oracle of Omaha:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

The gold section on page 18-19 is ‘brilliant’.

Middle p. 19: “You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond”. LOL

#102 outside looking in on 03.24.12 at 10:40 am

and watching the BPOE slowly implode.

… ex-Vancourite

#103 Ogopogo on 03.24.12 at 10:47 am

The RE estate cult has a compelling counterpart in Apple shares. Many single-asset “investors” are holding on to Apple shares as if they were golden-goose GICs that will never come down.

Like idiots who gut their HELOCs, the investors featured in a recent G & M article are spending money based on the current value of Apple. Check out this genius:

“Marinovich said the comfort of his Apple investment cushion means more freedom in his spending habits. He recently bought himself a $2,000 Omega watch and is shopping for a new Audi to replace his Volkswagen Jetta.

Retiree Pat Harshbarger, 79, has seen her $13,800 investment in Apple rise to $46,000. That paper wealth has made the former nurse comfortable enough to consider taking a few more trips to Maine to visit family and one to Las Vegas, where she and her husband want to try their hand at the slot machines, she said.”

Wow, great financial decisions: one buys a $2,000 watch and other goes gambling with unrealized gains.

Is it any wonder we’re in this mess?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/the-charmed-life-of-apples-early-shareholders/article2379461/

#104 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.24.12 at 10:48 am

#92 live within your means on 03.24.12 at 9:33 am
#74 Where’s The Money Guido??? on 03.24.12 at 1:53 am
“From what I’ve read about the Liberals in BC they only use the name Liberals, just like the Cons federally, who are not the old Progressive Conservatives, but the CRAP party – both wolves in sheep’s clothing.”
____________
I guess the BC NDP with Adrian Dick would do the trick.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha…

#105 Daisy Mae on 03.24.12 at 10:50 am

55Jon on 03.23.12 at 11:27 pm
“To neta…Flaherty won’t be mentioned in the history books…this is all going under the carpet.”

***********************

Don’t agree. I believe this will be Flahertys’ legacy. We still remember political shenanigans from the past. People do not forget.

#106 a prairie dawg on 03.24.12 at 11:05 am

It amazes me how many can’t grasp what’s happening.

F (and H) would have seriously had to consider the drop to 25yr amorts. (but they knew it would sink the economy, so it was a last resort)

What saved their @sses, was the OSFI announcement.

If you can’t figure out why, all you need to know is that the OSFI declaration has probably sent more of a shockwave through the banking industry in Canada than anything else has done in decades.

You want proof. Wait until your next mortgage renewal. For many, it may resemble a high colonic.

#107 Mountain Girl on 03.24.12 at 11:07 am

@#37 “r” ~

Cheaper daycare doesn’t lower the cost of housing directly, but it frees up household cash flow. I don’t know the going rate in Vancouver, but most daycare in Calgary costs about $65/day/kid. I believe the average household income in Calgary is around $90k/year. So for someone earning a gross $45k/year and needing care for two kids, paying out $130 per day for daycare effectively wipes out their income. If that cost were reduced as dramatically as the UBC professor proposes, there would be a LOT more cash that could theoretically be applied to servicing a bigger mortgage.
I’m guessing that is what the prof meant? I agree with you that it still doesn’t solve the problem. The affordability of houses in most cities in Canada is not going to be solved by cheaper daycare. The fundamental problem is that the cost of the average house is way beyond what two full incomes can sustainably afford.
I’ll take $10/day daycare, though! No problem with that at all!

#108 daystar on 03.24.12 at 11:15 am

Your right Garth (long developing historical pattern emerging here). Most definitely banking regulators will have a cooling effect and through regulations alone chill off this market but he should tighten CMHC regs regardless. F engineered our RE bubble in any way he could. Why shouldn’t F see the light, take the shame, fall on his own sword and do what he can to soften the landing that by all signs and wonders indicate will be brutal regardless of what he does now?

There’s an old expression, “its never to late” for anything including the implimentation of sound policy. There’s such a thing in this universe as damage control. Good leaders and followers practice it. Bad leaders and followers (this includes dummies) don’t. It might not be popular (Micheal Wilson’s smart and gutsy introduction of the GST comes to mind as an example of unpopular, tough but needed choices a finance minister has to make) but its still the right course.

Its hard to believe that Canadians are actually debating whether or not its a bubble. Of course it is and is mainstream viral as to why. In a word, valuations and debt levels have soared to prove it. Yes, low interest rates have been a big factor but real estate growth could have been slowed dramatically through tighter regulations in banking and through CMHC all along under Harper. Under Harper, CMHC’s debt limit has more than doubled. This bubble has been manufactured by government policy through CMHC and to a lesser extent, banking regulations but lets not kid ourselves about what happens if the government doesn’t engineer a RE decline in some fashion and do it quickly regardless of the pain that follows.

Interest rates could stay this low for another year and what that means potentially if CMHC doesn’t drop their 30 year term or say, realistically, go back to 10% down is even if sales volumes drop by a third and values flatline or fall slowly because of enduring low rates, its still 2/3rds sales with a big chunk of buyers holding huge mortgages in over their heads with higher rates on the horizon and valuations as a result poised to go nowhere but down. 3 years of record low interest rates stretches into 4 years of near zenith valuations with only one direction to go once interest rates “normalize” so why continue to artificially sustain this bubble and introduce even greater risk?

My point is… tighter banking regulations will feret out a good chunk of potential future bankrupcies but the rest of the buyers at these valuations are still taking on tremendous amounts of debt. The majority of this years buyers at current valutions are still debt slaves potentially for the rest of their lives. Thats the damage that can be prevented from here on in and tighter banking regs for them are not enough, CMHC needs to tighten their regs again until interest rates normalize.

If Canada’s RE bubble deflates through realistic regulations under a low interest rate environment, even if it is a hard landing, lets call it what it is. Damage control…. but it comes with pain.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1151200–canadian-real-estate-market-needs-tightening-up-flaherty-warns

A clip:

“Tightening lending requirements, and availability of CMHC insurance, too much risks sending the economy into a tailspin, as the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals recently warned Flaherty.

According to a study they recently prepared for the finance minister, 18 per cent of the jobs created from 2006 to 2011 were in the real estate financing and housing/construction sectors and helped insulate the country from the global economic downturn, stressed Murphy.” – the star

If that number (18%) is accurate, if real estate valuations collapse for any signifigant reason(s) whether its the effects of higher interest rates or overdevelopment spawned by lower rates over long periods coupled with loose CMHC regs and lending practices (for over 3 years now BOC’s rate has been at or below 1%) if the party stops, this nation is likely to experience a major recession marked by high unemployment and shrinking GDP… like the U.S. did when their RE bubble collapsed. And Spain. Portugal. Ireland, Iceland, Japan, Dubai etc. (pick an example, RE boom and bust phenomenom is nothing new and they all had one thing in common. Dumb self serving leaders and finance ministers) Thats a high number of people employed that are at risk should valuations drop to the point where development slows to a crawl from a major correction in real estate.

Higher rates… overdevelopment… realistic sound implimentation of government policy… pick your poison but Canada’s real estate is doomed now with or without sound policy and damage control government engineered soft (if possible) and hard landings. There will be no soft landing (I don’t think its possible, does anyone? This bubble is too extreme, too much debt, overdevelopment) and F can either choose a hard landing engineered by government now (tighter banking regs aren’t enough, CMHC needs to go to 25/5 and look at increasing down payments to a more realistic 10%) or take the harder landing a year from now by leaving CMHC alone and getting back to 18% employment by housing construction and real esate financing, what was this number under previous Liberal governments? Thats a number I’d like to know.

#109 Toronto Condo Market going to Crash on 03.24.12 at 11:15 am

The Toronto condo market is heading for a Miami style crash as developers are in panic mode to get rid of product to greaterfools. Realtors Have been selling to the last remaining greaterfools. You will notice only a few realtors are posting on this blog since they are trying to sell. Realtor smoking man you got listing finally? Don’t be suckered buying into the top.

#110 John on 03.24.12 at 11:21 am

Smokingman you are an uneducated realtor trying to pump a dead horse. The laws of economics will crush prices like they did in the US and EVEr

#111 Oceanside on 03.24.12 at 11:22 am

22 Jon on 03.23.12 at 9:41

But, a big part of me wants to watch the housing market tank and every consumptaholic over the age of 55 eat a big piece of go %&$* yourself pie.
_____________________________________________
It’s funny hearing of all the complaining about”Boomers” and their bad financial decisions and greed. I am around 60, my wife is 53. All of our friends have either no mortgages of owe small amounts like $10,000 to maybe $20,000 tops. We don’t have a lot of money but nearly all have avoided being in debt for many years as we are aware of our abilities to service debt declines as we approach retirement.

#112 Junius on 03.24.12 at 11:22 am

#93 T.O. Bubble Boy,

You said, “Did anyone (global tv) consider that the low birthrate could be tied to the fact that many residents of Vancouver proper are “temporary” in one way or another?”

That would be very misleading. Even if you just focused directly on young families you would see that these trends are very real. Fewer children per family and starting much later in life.

We know several couples who waited too long and can’t have children. Others that have to spend a fortune on fertility drugs and other procedures. Many more who wanted 2 or 3 children but ended up with 1 or 2.

We can say that everyone has a choice but that is naive. People get locked into jobs, a mortgage and a very expensive city and find they just can’t get ahead.

My siblings live in Alberta and they had a much, much easier time managing a family.

And please, no more comparisons to Monaco. No where on Earth is Monaco except Monaco.

#113 The Thing in the Basement on 03.24.12 at 11:23 am

87 LWYM – I have trouble justifying subsidized anything, though I can certainly understand the predicament of the single parent. The question is always who and what do
we subsidize. While daycare is essential for some, so are
rent, food and utilities. Your B&SIL certainly paid a higher rate of tax than lower income earners, why would they not be entitled to the same subsidy?

#114 Canadian Watchdog on 03.24.12 at 11:28 am

#99 T.O. Bubble Boy

That would have no effect. They already reduced the import duty in half the other day due to a nationwide strike last week.

#115 jess on 03.24.12 at 11:29 am

the return ON investment + the return OF the investment after seven years (property gain)
with 1% borrowing cost hum …

rinse lather repeat…

Another Hidden Bailout: Helping Wall Street Collect Your Rent
POSTED: March 19, 10:55 AM ET

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/another-hidden-bailout-helping-wall-street-collect-your-rent-20120319#ixzz1q32hcwxa

…”Banks create the loans, make money selling them off on the market at high prices, then come back and buy them again when they’re low. When the GSEs are in the middle of this transaction, it makes mortgage lending a basically risk-free proposition: Banks get paid for creating home loans and they end up owning valuable property on the cheap, but in between, they offshore the market risk to a government entity and/or to the idiot individual who bought the home mortgage in the first place…”

=========

#116 The American on 03.24.12 at 11:32 am

Responding from previous post: Timing is Everything, you asked how much I lost? I’m one of the few who have not lost anything. On the contrary, my asset base has expanded while debt load has compressed. However, I do feel horrible for the families and individuals the bust has affected. Trust me, it is ugly. Flippant attitudes that a massive real estate correction was forthcoming and the “we’re different” syndrome are the very ones who have been nailed the hardest.

#117 Junius on 03.24.12 at 11:34 am

#106 Daisy Mae,

I tend to agree with you. I think that the timing will be very bad for the Conservatives come the next election cycle. 2012 is clearly the transition year in Canada. By the time we get into 2013 and 2014 the folly will become clear.

My biggest concern is the MSM. The continual consolidation of media in this country means fewer and fewer people get the real story. Thankfully we have Mr. Turner and a few other independent voices.

#118 The Thing in the Basement on 03.24.12 at 11:47 am

96 Advisor – either rate is so low, and the LTV is also quite low, so are the numbers even an issue? If they use
the open variable to dump big payments against it, the
closed 2.99 may not be their best option. Maybe a slightly higher rate with better pre-payment allowance.
Look at the longer-term and bigger picture.

#119 Fabrega on 03.24.12 at 12:02 pm

#13 New Era

“I hope your right Garth. I hope F & C slows down government interference and let the banks and the free market dictate prices and lending.

After all that is what Capitalism is all about.”

Really???? Is that a joke?

#120 Fabrega on 03.24.12 at 12:07 pm

#22 Jon

Great post! You made me laugh dude…

#121 Ret on 03.24.12 at 12:09 pm

“Pray for them, for they shalt be squished.”

Okay Garth, I’ll pray for them, a little, maybe, but NO taxpayer cash, tax write offs or bailouts down the road!

#122 Fabrega on 03.24.12 at 12:12 pm

The elf must be soiling his pants. After his huge screw up he will do nothing. This buble has a long way to go.

#123 Junius on 03.24.12 at 12:12 pm

#81 TRT,

You said, “Anyways, is it possible that banks are trying to constrain supply in the coming years?”

No. You keep missing the point. It is all about risk management. The OFSI changes and the coming changes from the CMHC shift more risk to the banks. They don’t like risk so they will tighten lending.

You have it backwards because you always start with immigration in your analysis.

BTW – I prefer Lagavulin in a single malt.

#124 Junius on 03.24.12 at 12:14 pm

#119 Fabrega,

Good comment. After making the largest and riskiest intervention into the Canadian economy ever somehow the Cons will start preaching “free enterprise?” Might happen but everyone should see through this hypocrisy.

#125 John G. Young on 03.24.12 at 12:15 pm

#85 Marco

You have my support. I think that the only way to make the trolls go away is to band together against them.

#126 Terra No-more on 03.24.12 at 12:21 pm

The Bay Street-Wall Street link has faded since 911. The twin tower companies have settled themselves elsewhere with new partners in other regions. Downtown Toronto has dropped out of the loop.

#127 Silver on 03.24.12 at 12:21 pm

BC’S whole economy is run on tax breaks (corporate kickbacks) or gov. run infrastructure grants(differed tax’s) for public builds.
hell the industry i’m in get a 40% tax break on my labour costs. as me and my wife make about $160,000 a year that’s about say $30,000 in lost tax revenue then add say another 5-7,000 who work in this industry and you have a revenue hole of say $150,000 to $210,000. these jobs would vanish without the this subsidy .
No one invests anymore without looking for the tax break first…
were dead meat walking.
to many kids with $600,000+ homes. dept, new kids, and revolving jobs, fancy cars and all the label toys…
looking for government supported jobs.
What is it now…some 63% of all jobs come from the Tax coffers….
so dead….
down town vancouver cement and old growth bunker….
really smallll mortgage…$160,00 left
killer garden comming in…
… and just took a round out of BC Assesment’s and its shitty paperwork evaluations for tax purposes…
they are a legislated fraud….
you should take a look at the documentation on your property value and do due diligence on the documentation… to support their claim of value…
and they.. the city has leveraged your property value in they market as well…
we are all working for the banks and real estate/tax base industry.
we are all greeks now…
Silver

#128 John G. Young on 03.24.12 at 12:23 pm

#91 Steven Rowlandson

“People don’t turn racist, they are all naturally racist.”

Yeah, it’s a real problem in nursery schools.

“…they like profiting from financial buggery…”

Why do you persist in sexualizing everything?

Is that a concealed in your pockey, or are you just happy to see me?

#129 John G. Young on 03.24.12 at 12:31 pm

#94 unbalanced

“I work, I pay taxes. With the money left over I can buy what ever I want. Is that my right?”

It is your right to buy whatever you can afford, not whatever you want; eg. you may want a yacht but can only afford a rowboat, therefore you have to right to own a yacht.

Why am I even having to explain this?

Sounds like entitlement thinking to me.

#130 robert james on 03.24.12 at 12:32 pm

Condo s sell out in 4 hours.. Who do you believe ? http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/03/whats-wrong-with-this-picture.html

#131 Dan in Victoria on 03.24.12 at 12:38 pm

Guido @ 74
Yesssss.
Slowly the herd is raising its head. You’ve got Garth here day after day after day telling you to wake up and think.
He gives all of us the tools, use them.
I know one thing he always makes me think…..
Then you have Alex Tsakumis instead of the msm who is holding the feet of the politicians to the flames in BC.
http://alexgtsakumis.com/
Its sad when the msm news is nothing more than an advertising spot on tv.
If you sit back and critcally think for a moment and think about where things are headed it doesn’t look good.
Some of these younger people are going to get creamed.

#132 Hocus Pocus on 03.24.12 at 12:46 pm

Is there an ETF in Canada that is short real estate?

#133 robert james on 03.24.12 at 12:50 pm

oops ! Sorry,,someone already posted this link..

#134 jess on 03.24.12 at 12:59 pm

REALLY? Who is the dictator

It comes from the Greek word “Polis” meaning “city”, or “body of citizens”. Other words that come from the word “polis” are “metropolis”, which is governed by “politicians” who dictate policy, which is enforced by “police”.

Scandal: Inside the Murdoch EmpireThursday, March 22, 2012 9:00 PM on CBC-TV
Friday March 23 & Wednesday March 28 at 10 pm ET/PT on CBC News Network

#135 Tom from Mississauga on 03.24.12 at 12:59 pm

Well politically, where F’s seat is, Ontario, with McGuinty’s exploding budget (80,000 on the sunshine list) he’s going to pin our uncompetitive economy on the Ontario Liberals. Why tighten mortgage rules and put himself in the way? F’s 2nd majority is already won. Hope the people on that list don’t have 95% financing. Finding 6 figures again might prove difficult, eh?

#136 Mister Obvious on 03.24.12 at 1:03 pm

#94 unbalanced

“Alot of comments on this blog are ” this is not a right”. What is a right then? I work, I pay taxes. With the money left over I can buy what ever I want. Is that my right?”

——————————–
Absolutely!! As long as my taxes are never used to mitigate any financial distress you may create for yourself.

#137 Dale in TO on 03.24.12 at 1:04 pm

“Banks would be forced to apply their LTV (loan-to-value) ratios to houses whenever a mortgage term expired. So if house prices fall, owners could face the cancellation of their loans unless they cough up money

Garth: I thought this is always the way it was or are banks just given the discretion to use it or not?

This is not current practice. — Garth

#138 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 1:14 pm

Re. daycare: there may be a method by way to profit from it.

Edleun (sybmol EDU on the TSX Venture) is a newer shell, flush with cash, on a spending spree buying up daycares and associated real estate Canada wide:

http://www.edleungroup.com/EDU-edleun-press-news.asp

I wonder about buying so much RE near the peak. Yet, much of it is in developed and perhaps underserved childcare regions. They are acting as consolidators and will likely raise rates to “market rates”. Which is one thing if you are the market…:

http://www.edleun.com/index.asp

Problem is, EDU is a penny stock (was pumped from .70 to 1.10 and back down again).

Disclosure: no position ever.

#139 Daisy Mae on 03.24.12 at 1:20 pm

#118 JUNIUS: “…..fewer and fewer people get the real story. Thankfully we have Mr. Turner and a few other independent voices.”

******************************

That’s what I find so frustrating….

I e-mail this blog to a few who I believe can handle the truth…but either they remain silent, or want to contradict. They just don’t WANT to hear the truth. They’d rather believe Global TV. And, therefore, they receive mixed messages. But now the truth is finally becoming apparent daily even on Global. About time!

At some point I may be able to say to them: “I tried to tell you….but you wouldn’t listen.”

#140 Smoking Man on 03.24.12 at 1:30 pm

111 John on 03.24.12 at 11:21 am

Un schooled Not un educated, there is a differance.
A dead hourse?

What planet do you live on, Have you been to any open house’s in Toronto, cause if you did you would realize the hourse aint dead, it kicks like a wild buck.

In the last few years I unloaded a tone of investment real estate in The GTA I drank the kool aid too.

It was a mistake.

#141 John on 03.24.12 at 1:32 pm

Great analysis on how this is unfolding. “F” however is not moving anything.

The “interface” is an “ex” Goldman Sachs technocract, working with the European crisis. Mark Carney. That’s his main job ( for now). “F” will do what he can inside that box.

Carney had two mandates in Canada. One was to create the largest possible real estate bubble in it’s history, and to ignore the truth about macro-economics produced by the derivatives fraud ( put directly into high gear Sept 12th 2001). The second mandate was to super-inflate the bubble. This was acheived by playing the “good cop-bad cop” routine the GS’rs do in public positions. Liquidity in the ponzi scheme that floated Canada’s real estate bubble is international, mostly being financed by the derivatives fraud, through a non-soveigrn network of well-connected Central Bank insiders. Mark is an excellent player…”rock star” level. He even helped juice Canada for at least 50% more than could have been done without such high level econo-babble technocracy. Bullshit does indeed baffle brains.

The honeymoon of throwaway terms like “doomers” and “conspiracy nuts” and “Truthers” and “Occupiers” etc. is well-matured.

Mark is so cynical ( either through delusion or evil) that he said in his recent speech): “I’m glad the Occupy Wallstreet movement came to be because it brought the global finance situation to the attention of everyone” (paraphrased). He actually said that.

He then went on with technocracy so well thought-out and clever, that one almost feels like Saul, blinded on the road to Damascus.

Canada got goosed. Bigtime. It is no longer a country when people believe that anything real or power-based is coming from “F”.

Check into Mark Carney’s speech. Investigate all of his reforms. His ideas. His Harvard hedgemony and inside connections…dirty and corrupt. THE TRUTH about what’s going on. Here’s the article. It’s detailed. See if any of this content deals with the real macros.

They do not. Canadians are VERY smart and good people. They have the power to be informed, and the right to representational democracy. It is THEM that are giving this away.

Here it is. Mark. Rock Star. The age old good cop – bad cop scam.

http://www.qfinance.com/blogs/ian-fraser/2011/01/24/accountancy-sacrificed-its-right-to-call-itself-a-profession-long-ago

#142 John on 03.24.12 at 1:39 pm

This is the correct Mark Carney article ( his speech):
http://www.qfinance.com/blogs/ian-fraser/2011/11/10/the-new-sheriff-in-finances-global-village

If the link doesn’t connect, you can google “The New Sherrif in Finance’s Global Village”.

#143 EdmontonJim on 03.24.12 at 1:44 pm

See, F is actually playing it pretty smart.

He knows that the housing boom/bubble is reaching an end-game, the banks know it too. He also knows that the United States, no matter who is President will next year introduce much more stimulus spending. (Democrats will double down on health care, Republicans on Defense)

And he knows that Canada must soon have an election as well. The best thing that could happen for Canada is general inflation, offset by deflation in housing. This will spur a Canadian recovery at the expense of Canadian home ‘owners’, and the American people. Thus the Government can essentially cut benefits in real terms, without cutting benefits in nominal terms.

Predictions for next year:

Interest Rates remain low, but subsidies for home contruction and buying end.

The Canadian Dollar drops back to 80 cents American.

Gas and food prices increase by 20%

Unemployment drops to historic lows

Housing prices decline by 15-20% as ‘predicted’

Wages rise as unemployment falls.

F and H are reelected and considered geniuses, especially by younger voters and those who got out when they could.

#144 EdmontonJim on 03.24.12 at 1:50 pm

To sum up.

We actually have a pretty smart govenrment. The truth of the matter is:

Alberta is Screwing with BC
Quebec is Screwing with Ontario
Canada is Screwing with the US
And the Federal Government is screwing with the people who don’t vote (boomers).

And no-one suspects a thing.

#145 Canadian Watchdog on 03.24.12 at 1:59 pm

Not sure if this was posted here. This covers what I’ve been discussing here regarding CMHC and covered bonds.

Risks of CMHC Mortgage Cover http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/03/21/risks-of-cmhc-mortgage-cover/

#146 Cory on 03.24.12 at 2:12 pm

Credit expansion…banks win, people lose
Credit contraction (i.e. now)….banks win, people lose
banks shake ratlle and roll, taxpayer saves them……

see a pattern here??

#147 Aussie Roy on 03.24.12 at 2:15 pm

The American on 03.24.12 at 11:32 am

Flippant attitudes that a massive real estate correction was forthcoming and the “we’re different” syndrome are the very ones who have been nailed the hardest.

—————————————————————-

This is starting to happen here.

What is even more distrubing, you can tell some are now questioning their position but most STILL insist that prices will bounce back shortly, there is no bubble.

It is very much like a drug addict using every possible illogical excuse not to see the reality. Or always telling you how great their life is. It’s very sad that many here are so stubborn? and hooked (brain washed?) the only possible outcome will be for them to lose it all.

I suspect it’s just too hard for some people to admit they made a mistake, thinking some how Australia was “different”. Funny what denial causes some people to do. Quiet distrubing how wide spread and common this denial still is, even in the face of major inner Melbourne suburbs down *40% in the last 12 months.

* Source RP data
http://www.news.com.au/money/property/its-war-melbourne-vs-sydney-property/story-e6frfmd0-1226308118142

Melbourne Australia the worlds most livable city 2011.
The REAL BPOE – LOL.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_most_livable_cities

#148 Shane on 03.24.12 at 2:56 pm

Garth, just came back from looking at new homes at Markham rd and major Mackenzie just to get and idea what the prices are going for and for a 41 ft lot and 2500 sqft starting at 705k..so I told the sale guy it’s all going to change over the next couple of years meaning the market is going to correct and he just look at me with dumb look on his face. And then he went on about how many immigrants are coming over to invest into our country I’m getting tired of hearing the same old broken record from people who are not educated about the market.

Shane

#149 daystar on 03.24.12 at 3:19 pm

Reread your entry one more time Garth. CMHC’s debt ceiling was $541 billion at the end of last year:

http://www.entrustmortgage.ca/news.php?id=311

Banking regulations can slow down debt accumilation enough to not worry about CMHC’s debt ceiling in this budget but after that the $600 billion ceiling will need to be either raised or CMHC reduces its regs to the point where no one qualifies for CMHC loans. My best guess is F raises the ceiling in next year’s budget (so much for ceilings) if he’s still there.

I think CMHC still needs to tighten regulations and drop to 25 year amortizations at least until rates rise as F should have done when rates crashed 3 years ago… but didn’t. That was the smart choice then, its still the smart choice now. Whether the smart choice gets made… Harper/Flarehty government policy with CMHC regs (banking regs too) has been a failed policy their whole time in power (I offer RE values, flatlined incomes and soaring household/CMHC debt levels as proof) and it will come home to roost.

The Harper government’s biggest mistake was to get elected “at all costs”. Now they’ve got a majority government but the cost and damage to RE and the middle class for their desired temporary wealth effect spawned by an engineered RE bubble will be well known “before” the next election. I can’t see how the Harper government (as they like to call themselves) will avoid wearing this failed policy going forward and I can’t see how they can retain power beyond this term of power (if that was ever the motive for Harper).

I’m also not sure how F can really avoid becoming a whipping boy now regardless of what he does. F did everything he could to engineer a RE bubble. Unless he can keep it a secret, once RE valuations slide to the point of erasing vaste chunks of wealth in Canada which could take a couple years for the numbers to sink in and denial to evaporate, but much less than 4 years (i.e. rate hikes)and at this point F’s career is over. As a more certain darker future becomes a reality and feeds loss, fear and recession throughout Canada, too many will look for justice and this government will still be in power for the voter/taxpayer to find it.

#150 Fifty-fourth on 03.24.12 at 3:20 pm

Global TV in Vancouver must be realizing that if the “hot market” continues here, there will be no one left to watch their advertising in a few years. I don’t know why they didn’t think of this sooner.

#151 99% on 03.24.12 at 3:28 pm

F really does bear an uncanny resemblance to the Travelocity Knome.

You might even notice a bigger decline for birth rate in Canada since Minister Kenney announced he is closing the door on travel births (Pregnant visitors from China come to Canada to give birth and establishing Citizenship by Birth)

I remember when I had to take out a mortgage way back and didn’t qualify because my job wasn’t what they deemed stable (although my salary was quite high) I had to go to a private lender. My mortgage rate was 18% on $200,000. That was enough to scare the crap out of me. I would have never imagined that a $600,000 mortgage would be fathomable to a 20 something now. Last ten years, I didn’t have the guts to “play the game” Lost out on a lot cause I always thought “what if rates went up” They never did. So I guess I robbed myself of a decade of increased values. It is sad that so many of us put our lives on hold because buying a home has been unattainable. Home ownership isn’t one’s right. But, one does hope to buy a home, create stability, start a family, establish a solid life. People that create policies like F has made it impossible for the average person. Blame? He thinks he can escape it or pass it on? If he does, he is a bigger **** than I thought.

#152 Timbo on 03.24.12 at 3:51 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9163733/Banks-urged-to-raise-fresh-capital.html

UK banks are broke? say it is not so…..

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/24/business/greg-smith-ex-goldman-executive-is-said-to-be-seeking-book-deal.html?_r=1&ref=business

Interesting book deal in the making but not as good as yours Garth ;)

#153 jess on 03.24.12 at 4:00 pm

47 John in Montreal

that goes for the word zoomer as the rebrand ;^>

#154 ShipsNGiggles on 03.24.12 at 4:02 pm

RE MarineGateway….NOT SOLD OUT, after today the 7 day exit clause ends…in other words you can buy next week, just call or email to sale center next week.

Take that BPOE

#155 Mike, From Canmore on 03.24.12 at 4:05 pm

Albertans for years bitched about the NEP causing tough economic times. NOTHING can compare to what the “Harper House-arama” is going to do to at least 2 of Canada’s largest centers. People are going to lose their shirts – and it is ALL because of Harper and F’s shameless pumping of the housing market. Remember the election ads with “Steve” posing with young families buying new homes? It was the main pretext for the drop in GST. Yup. Harper saved you a couple thousand in GST, but you’ll lose 100s of thousands now.

Smart.

#156 scib on 03.24.12 at 5:07 pm

F is showing what a shallow, self serving politician he is by blaming the banks for loose lending policies. F is the one who is backstopping all the mortgages through the CMHC. Such weak character.
Why not man up and admit he made a mistake? No way, because its all about getting in power. A politicians first priority.

#157 daystar on 03.24.12 at 5:27 pm

#142 John on 03.24.12 at 1:32 pm

I beg to differ with your arguements concerning Mark Carney. We can spin it any way we want but Mark only really has one variable to play with and thats setting BoC interest rates. The BoC has said repeatedly for generations that inflation is what they watch most (decided by currency factors more than anything) Low interest rates are world wide and QE in the U.S. is forcing buyers of debt to look elsewhere for loan interest so borrowing in this climate is cheap and easy. Why make it more expensive when its not needed?

Should our nation pay more interest than it needs to, to borrow money? Should the BoC borrow at greater service costs than it needs to, just to deter lending in Canada? Don’t want to sound inflammatory, but we’ve got regulators for that. Mark’s job essentially is to find the best deal for Canada’s debtors given the circumstances and its been easy to borrow cheaply for Mark til’ now since the financial collapse of U.S. bond market in late 08′. Beyond that, Mark’s responsibility is PR and noise, explaining his decision for keeping rates where they are as best he can and give guidance and while some dislike slick banker gargon, I don’t find much fault in what he’s saying unless we expect him to tell the federal government how to do its job and some do (I once did) but its not entirely his place to do so. Its a democracy, its everyone’s responsibility.

Now… the federal government’s job is to keep debt levels inline with incomes and interest rates which it has grossly failed to do (not just privately but publically, we have federal deficit spending remeniscent of Greek fiscal prudence). There are a number of “instruments” at the federal governments disposal to keep housing valuations, household debt and lending practices far removed from rate hikes as we are now finding out. We have bank regulators which have been loosely regulated til’ now. (where were they for the past 6 years of Harper rule til now and who do they take their orders from?) We have CMHC which decides in spades just what size the monthly payment will be relative to valuations/interest rates through the length of amortizations and the intitial size of downpayments and a whole host of minor regulations that can be introduced to cool an overheated market including changes to immigration laws and foreign investment, some introduced last year but the biggest regulation of all is the length of amortizations and size of downpayment so lets recap what this federal government has and has not done.

When interest rates are up, the government has some leaway in doing what it can to support higher valuations and we know them from tax credits and RRSP eligability towards RE to looser banking and a whole host of CMHC regs but it can’t be extreme as 40 year nothing down mortgages were or even 35/5’s in a normalized BoC rate climate of 4 to 5%. Certainly, 40/0’s were failed government policy especially introduced in Canada after it came on the heels of evidence mounting towards failed government regulatory policy fallout with the U.S. housing meltdown. When interest rates are down to record lows, the federal government has to assess valuations and keep them inline with incomes and interest rate sensitivity meaning they have to tighten CMHC regs as well as Banking regs when rates are low. Interest rates crash? Lending regulations need to tighten because low rates drive RE valuations if left unchecked. Interest rates rise? Lending regulations can loosen… maybe again, depending on income, debt levels and valuations.

Its been over 3 years now that we have seen record low interest rates.

http://www.bcrealtor.com/d_bkcan.htm

During that time we saw 35 year 5% down mortgages for 2 years until last spring’s regulatory change to 30/10. Are 40 year nothing down CMHC regs bubble forming policy? Only an idiot would argue otherwise. Are 35 year, 5% down mortgage CMHC regs RE bubble forming policy coupled with record low interest rates? Only a moron would beg to differ meaning its failed government policy. One needs only to look at its result to see why. Even now, still in the first year of 30 year 5% down, such government policy is RE bubble forming policy in this interest rate climate even at these zenith valuations and the truth is in the numbers meaning its failed government policy at work when combined with record low interest rates regardless of the kind of political koolaid the observer drinks.

In all honesty, CMHC regs should have stayed at 25/10 as before from 06′ on through to 09′ and then dropped to 20/10 til’ now. If F would have done this, no bubble, no damage, no worry and a possible second majority term at hand. F did the exact opposite and now Canada’s housing is on the edge of a cliff.

This blog since its conception from what I can tell has had one major theme throughout. ” The policies of this federal government surrounding real estate is bubble forming and financially dangerous to Canada’s systems of government and its people if left unchecked so buyer beware as RE is an illiquid asset.” Harper has been in power for over 6 years now and until now government policy has done everything it could to drive RE valuations in Canada… all driven by nothing but credit… til’ last year and it was nowhere near enough regardless of what RE pumpers say and now F plans to more through OSFI regs, still in draft. Its all too little…. to late (regardless of better late than never) and all but the disillusioned, irrational, brainwashed, propagandized, reclusive, naive, misformed and unaware know it.

#158 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 5:34 pm

“In Soviet America, homeowner rents from bank?”

http://news.investors.com/article/605368/201203231258/bofa-starts-testing-foreclosure-avoidance-program.htm

Bank of America’s (BAC) test program to allow certain homeowners to rent their homes instead of going into foreclosure comes amid growing investor demand for distressed property as the rental market surges.

The bank has so far invited about 1,000 homeowners at risk of foreclosure in Arizona, Nevada and New York to hand over their deeds to BofA and pay rent that’s less than the monthly mortgage.

The idea is to see if BofA can recoup more money by renting out homes vs. foreclosing and reselling them, probably for less than what’s owed.

#159 bill on 03.24.12 at 5:37 pm

http://gwynnedyer.com/2012/chinas-impending-crash/

#160 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 5:56 pm

Thinking of buying a new condo? Horror flick pictures of substandard workmanship, from swanky King West unit. Click on a picture to being slide show.

Truly drunken monkeys could do a better job. Junius, care to weigh in on this point?

http://poorconstruction.blogspot.ca/2012/02/m5v-condos-tas-designbuild-lifetime.html

#161 Westernman on 03.24.12 at 6:31 pm

[email protected]#22,
My,my! We DO have a bumper crop of self-entitled whiners on this blog today… a target – rich enviroment if I say so myself.
But Jon, I think you Topped even DonDWest and Junius today with the “What to do” statement in your self-pity laden post so I’m here to help as always.
Here’s what to do – forget about becoming some kind of prima donna sports A-hole ( you aren’t going to make it anyway ) and learn some kind of useful work skills that people have some actual need for… and I don’t mean journalism B.S. or some kind of finance horseshit…

#162 Westernman on 03.24.12 at 6:35 pm

Uh Oh [email protected] # 20,
You consider the CBC as a credible source of anything? The only credible thing they represent is a
constant king sized barrage of socialist brainwashing…

#163 jess on 03.24.12 at 6:38 pm

front companies
Edition 3: March
In March’s Taxcast: Apple i-tax dodging, reclaiming Arab Spring country assets, the rich country club of the OECD and the ABCs of setting up letterbox companies. It’s child’s play!

March’s Taxcast: Apple i-tax dodging
http://www.tackletaxhavens.com/taxcast/

#164 Oceanside on 03.24.12 at 7:01 pm

#164 Westernman on 03.24.12 at 6:35 pm
Uh Oh [email protected] # 20,
You consider the CBC as a credible source of anything? The only credible thing they represent is a
constant king sized barrage of socialist brainwashing…
————————————————————-
Wow…And i thought they were pretty accurate and neutral, Guess I am brainwashed, maybe get back to Global. CBC has Kevin O’Leary , well known socialist spokesperson

#165 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 7:10 pm

We are so doomed. People post here, posting brilliant quotes from past years’ statesmen and leaders. These quotations’ wisdom stand the test of time.

Notice nobody is quoting today’s crop of anti-intellectual leaders? We are treated as kids.
What bon mots were recently thrown our way:

“You are with us or with the child pornographers (terrorists)”.
“People want subways” (Toronto mayor Ford as he cancelled debate and stormed out of City Hall last week).
“He’s killing his own people!!”
“We know he has WMD”.
“They will throw flowers at our feet, their children will sing songs of praise”.
“It’ll be a cakewalk”
“Mission Accomplished”.

(Straight out of the Reich phrase book).

Bonus track: “Transportation, transportation, transportation”.

Harper recently commented something about “the social programs Canadians cherish”, as if talking about a child’s stuffed animal.

Cherish? We PAY for these programs. 50% of our income is taken up by taxes and hidden taxes. 50% of your tank of gas is tax. We’re told it’s for the roads. Aren’t property taxes for the roads? What about vehicle license and tire tax – also for the roads? We should be paving in gold.

You see, it’s as easy as taking candy from a baby. Look at their pinched, dour, trite mouths and faces. We are naughty children to be scolded for thinking on our own . Might is right.
We are wards of the state.

#166 jess on 03.24.12 at 7:12 pm

westernman

“The News of the World is in the business of holding others to account. But it failed when it came to itself.”
mr. murdock

#167 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 03.24.12 at 7:21 pm

I have a question for this forum:

What will happen to Vancouver’s rental market if the real estate bubble pops???

A lot of renters seem to intuitively believe a real estate crash will lead to lower rents.

But I can envision a scenario where a real estate crash leads to HIGHER rents. Lots of overextended homeowners who only put 5% down on their homes will get foreclosed on. They will need somewhere to live. They will become renters. Demand for rental housing will increase, leading to higher rents. Foreclosed homeowners probably have higher incomes than renters who never entered the real estate market in the first place. Foreclosed homeowners can then outbid current renters for the little rental stock that we have. So in the end, it will be those on the bottom of the housing food chain–low income renters–who will find themselves out on the streets.

Does this sound plausible? Any way a real estate crash could result in LOWER rents???

#168 a prairie dawg on 03.24.12 at 7:44 pm

Follow the bond market.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/23/a-green-light-to-go-back-into-the-stock-market/

#169 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 03.24.12 at 8:03 pm

yeah….I wuz…uh…wtf…oh yeah…..at my MIT convocation…..in the Time Machine I built…..went back to 1994…Bre-X and Nortel….yeah…..

#170 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.24.12 at 8:13 pm


The problems involved in sexual relations between Dr. Seuss and a DQ Blizzard
*
There was a Scotsman, an Englishman and Claudia Schiffer sitting together in a carriage in a train going through Wales.

Suddenly the train went through a tunnel and as it was an old style train, there were no lights in the carriages and it went completely dark.

Then there was this kissing noise and the sound of a really loud slap . . .

When the train came out of the tunnel, Claudia Schiffer and the Scotsman were sitting as if nothing had happened, and the Englishman had his hand against his face as he had been slapped.

The Englishman thought:

‘The Scottish fella must have kissed Claudia Schiffer and she missed him and slapped me instead.’

Claudia Schiffer thought:

‘The English fella must have tried to kiss me and actually kissed the Scotsman and got slapped for it.’

The Scotsman thought:

‘This is great. The next time the train goes through a tunnel I’ll make that kissing noise and slap that English bastard again!’
*
#167 TurnerNation — Exc. post! Talk about dumbing down, or brainwashing sheeple. Of course, sheeple are far too gullible to be sidetracked by the reality of life.
*
12:50 clip Just keep going. Interesting psychological study of why no one makes eye contact on the NY subway; Tungsten filled UK bar; SArabia Interesting to see what happens now that China and SArabia have signed a deal to expand oil fields, and Oil Conundrum explained; 2:49 clip Tanking US$ = higher gas prices; Wave after Wave of banxter resignations.
*
France “Whilst French authorities claimed to want to end the standoff peacefully and take Merah alive, the siege’s fatal finale conveniently removes from the picture a suspect who appears to have had a great deal of contact with both the French intelligence services and the police — and even with the US military.”, and Another report “Official: No sign French suspect had al-Qaida ties.”; 5:30 clip Prisons for Profits. Now the reason is clear why Harper wants to build jails and throw us deranged lunatic fringe nutbar meatheads in — he and his cronies will make a killing off of us; 1:01 clip Nuke energy. Use thorium instead. It’s abundant and less volatile than uranium; T-Mobile Web Guard How to circumvent it; Close Encounters of the Gimme Shelter kind; Reddit This is what Reddit is currently censoring; 44:14 clip The Iran is not a nuclear threat, and a BBC documentary which exposed Israel’s nuke WMD, so it is a threat; Big Brother is Back Not here, the UK, and Big Brother’s scanning capabilities can scan 36 mln. faces / second; Syria It is to TPTB’s advantage to keep the kettle whistling; US – NKorea More bluff than bluster. “In light of the fact that North Korea is the client state of China, the US can, for all practical intents and purposes, do very little here.” wrh.com.

#171 Canadian Watchdog on 03.24.12 at 8:21 pm

#150 Shane

It’s because they all read from the same source of information, that being CMHC and the real estate boards. Ever notice how nobody says ‘location, location, location” anymore? And now it’s “immigration, immigration, immigration.” This all started a few years ago when CMHC began mentioning immigration demand in their reports.

Smart monkey say, dumb monkey do.

#172 Timbo on 03.24.12 at 8:48 pm

#169 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

Rents are tied to income, not speculation. If your rent goes up and you cannot afford the area, you move and if need be you leave the area.

#173 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 03.24.12 at 8:49 pm

Nobody can make you close on anything. — Garth

=====================================

Oh Yeah?

I dare you to keep my eyelids open when Roseanne is a Playboy centerfold

#174 Ben on 03.24.12 at 9:18 pm

Canada is a f’n joke.

My colleages back up there able to retire at Telus but can’t afford too still making $31.80 an hour – 40 hour weeks

I’m down here in Dallas making $50 an hour working 60 hour weeks for AT&T and paying $750 a month for furnished everything, including internet, satelite tv and swimming pool accomodation.

Went to Walmart today for my weeks worth of groceries and a case of beer, was wondering if $145.00 in my pocket was enough. (Mindset still back in Canada)

That will be $45.00 sir

LMFAO

#175 Canadian Watchdog on 03.24.12 at 9:22 pm

#170 a prairie dawg

There’s a reason why Eric Sprott fired the writer of that post from Sprott Asset Management.

#176 Bill Gable on 03.24.12 at 9:26 pm

Well, it’s not like Mr. Turner, and a passel of us Mouldville folks didn’t try and warn you.
Vancouver is. Potemkin Village (BPOE and, if you can sober up, Smoking Man….look it up).
This town was a great place to live, back oh, 40 years ago. Bucolic, quiet. Then Expo 86, then the detested Greatest Place on Earth BS took over, and this place went down the toilet.

I sold all my RE, including an apartment building 2 years ago.
I told everyone who would listen, to read Mr. Turner, and his books, and do some investigating. People accused me of being a nut job, and worry wart.

You should see the ‘for sale’ signs, sprouting like weeds, here in the West End.

One of my friends called me on Friday. She is, sadly, quite sick. She started to cry, and my heart fell to my shoes. She has no savings, and everything tied up in a 1970’s era, frame Condo, and since she had become sick, she has ballooned her HELOC, and now, she is in deep trouble. What could I say? I tried to calm her down, and told her that I would come over.

Here is this wonderful woman, in her wheelchair, and she was beside herself.
I managed to calm her down, ( I was afraid she was going to have a stroke). She asked me what she should do…and started to cry again. I was just sick.

I said that my friend is her Credit manager at the, ahem, Blue Bank…did she want ms to call him, and set up a meeting? Since I am not related, nor licensed, that was all I could do…then I dropped the bomb…” you are going to have sell this condo, and now”. Mistake.

Back of the envelope, I realized that she will come out with virtually nothing. Sick at heart, my mind racing, I asked her if she had relatives that could help. Nope.

So here I am, with a woman who is sick and she is done.

This is Vancouver today. How many more people are like this kool aid drinker, in this schvarstunkene city? My Yiddish spelling is a bit shaky, but you get the idea.

I called my best man, a retired Realtor (honest and caring – really) and he talked with her…and said he was in the area. Class act that he is, 20 minutes later he was there. He was incredible. He got the story and told her to list at a price that will at least, we both hoped, would get her some action. He also assured her that he will help her pro bono.

The sign went up this afternoon.

She, with this gents help is now looking for an assisted living facility. ( See not all Realtors are swine).

The neighbors in the building were outraged at the price, because their properties were just chopped.

This is Vancouver today. When a Surgeon and his physio wife can’t afford to live here…who can?

I rent a wonderful joint from my landlord, who lives in Kyoto Japan. He gave us a five year lease, and is happy we are in the unit. Half my building is empty. Speculators all from Asia, can’t rent, because the Condo council chopped rentals, arbitrarily.

This is Vancouver. Walk down any street and look at the retail space with For Lease signs. Traffic has dropped off so badly, that you can get over the Lion’s Gate in minutes. A few years ago, it was a death march.

Rentals are being snapped up, if well priced.

One ex-friend of mine, leveraged 5 condos, all furnished with HELOCS. He has three cars, and loves his Rolexes.

I saw him as I was leaving my lawyer’s office. He looked like a nervous wreck.

So. To sum up.

Stay away from Vancouver if you can.

Pains me to say all this.

Mr. Turner has been trying to warn us. Have you got it now?

It will be a long time before I get over seeing this poor woman in the wheelchair. So much for her old age.

I didn’t sleep much, believe me.

Best place on Earth?

As if.

#177 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 03.24.12 at 9:26 pm

@ #72 BPOE
beepy, beepy, beepy when are you ever gonna shut up?
Your facts are a tad skewed .
You state: “Early 80′s interest rates were high but shortly after subsided and houses were affordable. Your classmates couldn’t afford a $110 grand house at 10.75%”

Well, I knew several people that bought houses in 1980 Vancouver for $240,000.00 ( not $110,000) at 21%( not 10.75%).
A year later the houses were worth $80,000.00 and the interest rates were still 21%.

BPOE , once again skewing the facts to make his fantasy’s of Vancouver come true.
Pure drivel.

#178 Ben on 03.24.12 at 9:29 pm

Canada is a f’n joke. Part 2

I made a 100 G in 9 months down here but went home to file my taxes in both countries, I got $280 back on my U.S. return and owed $6,000 on my Canadian return.

LMAO

#179 Devore on 03.24.12 at 9:52 pm

#108 Mountain Girl

It’s completely backwards logic.

Increasing disposable income will increase money that can go to service debt (thus increasing the amount of debt that can be carried), but this will actually increase house prices, not lower them, and will decrease affordability, not lower it. Subsidies to first time home buyers do the same thing. If all first time buyers got a $100,000 subsidy for buying their first house, house prices would pretty quickly go up by around $100,000.

Allowing people to take on more debt is not the way to improving affordability.

#180 Ben on 03.24.12 at 9:59 pm

Canada is a f’n joke. Part 3

Look at this FSBO shoe box in Beaumont (30 miles from downtown Edmonhole) for $330,000

http://comfree.com/2-storey-for-sale-beaumont-alberta-317062

—————————————————–

Now look at this MLS listing in Dallas for the same price

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/18911-Fortson-Avenue_Dallas_TX_75252_M83686-93454

LMAO

#181 TheBigLebowski on 03.24.12 at 10:16 pm

Garth, I know you are all for Free Trade ,Globalization, Offshoring and Outsourcing . But are you also a One Worlder, as in supporting the idea of dissolving Sovereign borders and handing all decision making to the U.N and World Bank? How do you feel about the push for a integrated North American security perimeter and the merger of our police and military with the U.S and Mexico. As a side note for the gold bugs. Central bankers don’t hate gold, they just hate the idea of YOU having gold.

#182 Ben on 03.24.12 at 10:19 pm

Canada is a f’n joke. Part 3

Look at this FSBO shoe box in Beaumont (30 miles from downtown Edmonhole) for $330,000

http://comfree.com/2-storey-for-sale-beaumont-alberta-317062

—————————————————–

Now look at this MLS listing in Dallas asking under $300,000

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3109-Kimble-Dr_Plano_TX_75025_M86659-29361?ex=TX546866347

#183 a prairie dawg on 03.24.12 at 10:19 pm

#177 Canadian Watchdog

There’s a reason why Eric Sprott fired the writer of that post from Sprott Asset Management.

– — –

Since Jean-Francois Tardif left Sprott, I haven’t followed them nearly as much.

And you’re either going to tell us, or you’re not.

#184 weekend open house tour on 03.24.12 at 10:22 pm

Checked out the open houses… some price drops, not to many visitors… lots of open house signs in Mississauga. Realtor is blaming the rainy weather. The one house I’ve been looking at has tried very low pricing, high pricing and is on the market for year number 2. Waiting patiently… it’s not the one I want, but I might take it when it drops more… lol

#185 Timbo on 03.24.12 at 10:35 pm

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7074

“‘The trouble with bubbles is once they are inflated, you must carry on with inflating them,’ Chancellor says, because ‘if investment stops growing, you get a contraction of credit and falling asset prices.’ To keep things going, it seems that banks are now making loans to each other and effectively expanding the money supply; but this, in turn, drives up the threat of inflation. ‘I suspect that the endgame is the breakdown of the Chinese credit system,’ Chancellor adds.”

get the popcorn , its all downhill from here…..

#186 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 10:41 pm

178Bill Gable on 03.24.12 at 9:26 pm

Though not my culture, it sounds like you are a mensch helping those yentas! :-)

#187 Snowboid on 03.24.12 at 10:43 pm

#169 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 03.24.12 at 7:21 pm…

Based on what we see in Phoenix, rents will stay the same or go down. In our area in the NW valley 2 bed/2 bath condos go for around $ 700-750 a month, and 3 bed/2 bath SFHs for around $ 1200-1300 a month. The amenities are top-notch with swimming pools, gyms and rec centres.

These condos would sell for under $80K and SFHs around $ 150K (but prices are slowly rising).

The people we have met here who went through foreclosure (or short sales) are definitely not in good financial shape and are in no position to outbid other renters.

However, there is still a glut of rental condos here, with some local ones offering three months free rent to move in!

Single family homes are more attractive to renters, and may be harder to find in good areas.

#188 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 10:44 pm

180Ben on 03.24.12 at 9:29 pm

Would $6000 approximate a yearly health insurance policy’s cost? If we had to pay, in Canada.

#189 Snowboid on 03.24.12 at 10:54 pm

#176 Ben on 03.24.12 at 9:18 pm…

Much as I love Canada, I’m getting used to the low cost of living during the six months we spend down south.

We entertained friends last week, who were like kids in a candy store when we went to the local warehouse booze outlet. Nothing like paying 1/3 the BC prices.

Sadly, we soon have to return to the land of pretium insania – but will enjoy seeing relatives again and can hardly wait to catch up with the news of what Christy has sold off since we left.

Did hear Hydro costs are way up – maybe time for BC to start importing power from Arizona – likely cheaper.

#190 45north on 03.24.12 at 11:12 pm

Daystar: its never too late for anything including sound policy

it seems to me, if you want Flaherty to tighten mortgage rules then you have to support him when he does

Bill Gable: Best place on Earth?

As if.

thanks for your story

#191 Dan in Victoria on 03.24.12 at 11:54 pm

Ben @ 182
Canada is a F’N joke part 4
This guy says it best……

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNbFLlMIp28

#192 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.25.12 at 12:20 am


#183 TheBigLebowski — Good to see you’re still around! Exc. points as well.
*
Fall of Rome; Flaxseed Better in more ways than one; Abandoned Pets all over UK due to bad finances; Debtaway Nice chart; and Paying Off debts; Red or Duct Tape? US Student debt tops US$1 tri.; UK Pensioners Just like Canada, the Brits. are slowly eating away at their pensions; Rich and Poor is where the battlefields are; Bank (and shop) locally — better deals; Basic Needs; Freight Trades? Cause crashes; Visualization of Work; Gold Coup.
*
Who Is Normal? No one around here; Orthodox Organized Religion Fleece the flock! Hope and Change Obomba has now (apparently) handed over all water rights and supplies to the military, and this, and this. Is HAARP playing a role? ‘Quake time in the Land Down Under.

#193 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 03.25.12 at 12:55 am

CrowdedElevatorfartz and BPOE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdETM1UUy28

Can you both do a best 6 out of 10 ?

#194 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 1:22 am

#97 Daisy Mae on 03.24.12 at 9:59 am
“He may look like that Travelocity dude, but he ain’t stupid.”

***********************

Well, actually, he IS stupid….for allowing this to happen in the first place. There are many other suitable adjectives for the little twerp.

………………

Daisy Mae – I think Garth means the little twerp (:-) is politically astute.

#195 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 1:32 am

#105 eaglebay – Parksville on 03.24.12 at 10:48 am
#92 live within your means on 03.24.12 at 9:33 am
#74 Where’s The Money Guido??? on 03.24.12 at 1:53 am
“From what I’ve read about the Liberals in BC they only use the name Liberals, just like the Cons federally, who are not the old Progressive Conservatives, but the CRAP party – both wolves in sheep’s clothing.”
____________
I guess the BC NDP with Adrian Dick would do the trick.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha…

………………….

I’m not an NDP’r – ha ha ha ha

#196 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 2:15 am

#183 TheBigLebowski

“Garth, I know you are all for Free Trade ,Globalization, Offshoring and Outsourcing.”

Perhaps one of these days he’ll come to realize that globalization represents the destruction of individual human liberty in the name of hegemony. Increasingly centralized power is never a good thing.

However, I’m holding my breath, most of his generation have been brainwashed to think of globalization as the key to a healthy economic paradise. All of the prevailing problems associated with globalization are argued to be temporary and that my generation will supposedly benefit if we “just give it time.” How much time exactly? I’m not exactly young anymore and I’ve heard the same arguments verbatim since I was a child.

The baby boomers come in all shapes and sizes with numerous different opinions, but you would be hard pressed to find a baby boomer that doesn’t buy the globalization handbook in their own way – and that includes the very few who are real estate bears. From experience, the few boomers who actually do oppose globalization often do so for the wrong reasons – they’re xenophobic.

I think the reason why the boomers are so pro-globalist is in part because of the they have been the beneficiaries of excellent timing in the massive globalization economic boom and bust cycles.

When they came of young working age – plenty of highly paying manufacturing jobs were available to them in droves that only required a High School diploma. When they came of age to buy a house – the prices historically speaking were never lower. When they worked their way up out of manufacturing jobs and into the professions; all the manufacturing jobs were outsourced, but this no longer affected the boomers seeing that they were no longer doing manufacturing jobs. In fact, it benefitted the boomers in cheaper priced consumer goods. Of course this meant their children would be Wal-Mart greeters starting out rather than doing highly paid manufacturing jobs – but the boomers didn’t care. At the same time, due to peak boomer earnings in the professions and excess funds due to decreased consumer costs, the boomers had tons of disposable income – so they spent it on buying bigger and better houses. Creating a real estate gentrified boom so out of control that they priced their own children out of the possibility of ever affording that starter home – if you could even find a decent starter home that wasn’t completely bulldozed down and given way to a boomer McMansion. So boomers house values went up – and their kids are priced out. Now we’re entering a period where all jobs, even the crap service jobs, are seemingly being gutted roughly around the same time the baby boomers are ready to retire. Sheesh, how convenient!

So the reality of the situation is the booms, busts, and hiccups of the monster we have called globalization has always been in perfect step by step alignment to where the boomers stand in their life. I’ve always felt one step behind – with few options to truly exercise power outside the societal box due to such strong centralized power in both the economy and government. Boomers have a skewed perspective of globalization – through perfect timing they’ve received all the benefits without inheriting any of its flaws. So it’s reasonable to expect a boomer to always support globalization.

At the end of the day, I’ve come to respect someone who has achieved financial respect under the age of forty, and have learned, no matter how much money they have – not to take financial advice from a baby boomer.

A wealthy boomer will probably tell you to work multiple overtime hours to get promoted quickly and then to buy a house. The argument being the boss will appreciate the effort and pay accordingly – not true today; and the value of the house will rise – also not true today. Who can blame them though? It worked for them around your age at their time – so the prevailing belief is that it should work for you, but it doesn’t.

You could be a respected and successful person if your prejudices didn’t lead you into absurd generalizations. Sadly they do. So you’re marginalized, creating a negative feedback loop in your life. The cure for this is in your own hands, not in railing against society. — Garth

#197 Derek R on 03.25.12 at 2:24 am

#181 Devore on 03.24.12 at 9:52 pm wrote:
Allowing people to take on more debt is not the way to improving affordability.

Well said. Subsidies won’t make housing more affordable. There is only one way to improve affordability and it’s simple and easy to implement. But most people hate it so it never gets used.

Raise property taxes.

When house prices are too high, it’s a sign that property taxes are too low. Sure the city may not be able to spend all that tax revenue but it just has to give people the surplus cash back via free public transit, daycare vouchers, a gas tax rebate, GST rebate, whatever. Even cashback if you have too.

The choice is to pay a low price up front followed by low mortgage payments and high property tax or to pay a high price followed by high mortgage payments and low property tax.

Low mortgage payments and high property taxes are a better deal than high mortgage payments and low property taxes because there’s a chance that the city will spend the money on making your life better. Whereas the banks definitely won’t.

#198 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 2:39 am

#163 Westernman

Silly Westernman, so typically a baby boomer. So basically you’re advocating human manual labour in the 21st century? Well, I have news for you buddy, hustling and picking up a shovel doesn’t exactly work in a world of robotic automation.

Provide a skill that people need? That’s great advice buddy – care to provide what exactly that skill is supposed to be? China feeds us, clothes us, manufactures everything for us, doesn’t leave much left for me to do in terms of providing a need – because all of the needs are already met at a much cheaper price.

#199 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 2:44 am

#112 Oceanside on 03.24.12 at 11:22 am
22 Jon on 03.23.12 at 9:41

But, a big part of me wants to watch the housing market tank and every consumptaholic over the age of 55 eat a big piece of go %&$* yourself pie.
_____________________________________________
It’s funny hearing of all the complaining about”Boomers” and their bad financial decisions and greed. I am around 60, my wife is 53. All of our friends have either no mortgages of owe small amounts like $10,000 to maybe $20,000 tops. We don’t have a lot of money but nearly all have avoided being in debt for many years as we are aware of our abilities to service debt declines as we approach retirement.

………………………………….

Oceanside – Most of us on our older end of the street paid off our homes years ago & have some investments.

As an aside – our neighbour (who lost her husband last year) found a problem with Turbotax (something to do with declaring her husband’s taxes). She called her FA -who turned out to be an adviser to Intuit – & Intuit made changes to the program.

Today I will start doing our taxes using Turbotax. The interface (?) has changed. (YUCK) Read some negative comments about the current version.

#200 truth hammer on 03.25.12 at 2:51 am

I really wish the Liberal losers would stop calling everyone who doesn’t believe in their crack pot ‘one world village’ commercial as rascist, xenophobic, haters etc……..Theres a reason that peop;e got sick of the Liberal Party dogma……and that is precisely because the mind games got to be annoying as hell.

We don’t like that our housing stock has been seized by foreign speculators…..why does that mean ‘rascism?’

Why it a Liberal line in the sand that our residential housing stock should be sold to foreigners at all? If they become Canadians they have every right to buy property…..but this is not good enough for the Liberals….and hence the ad hominem attacks….scary stuff.

Can anyone explain why it is necessary to have Chinese nationals bidding up our land prices so that local residents can not own a home in the area or city where they grew up? China certainly doesn’t allow me to go there and speculate…why the double standard?

#201 TRT on 03.25.12 at 4:35 am

After a few Captain Morgan’s n Caramel colour, buddy was excited and let out that he had bought a new 10,000 sq ft house…still has the one he lives in presently.

In mid 30’s, build his lumber business from the ground up…loves China…worth N of $30m already.

The world is diverging I tell you…but no one listens…everyone has their own opinions.

PS… he hates unions and know-it-alls.

Like I said…expect $5 per hour for labour and trades jobs within 10 years. Guaranteed!

Dont shoot the messenger…just telling it like it is!

#202 Herb on 03.25.12 at 8:35 am

#193 Dan in Victoria,

thanks for that link – I now have a new hero. Haven’t paid much attention to Stompin’ Tom since “Bud the Spud” and similar fun songs.

#203 Mr Buyer on 03.25.12 at 8:58 am

well I went on a trip to tokyo just after upgrading my laptop and installing a new os and once again I forgot to install the wired lan driver because I am usually never ever out of my own work space andv I am probably stupid but being of the me generation I will never openly admit to that (forgot one of my eight usb sticks as well once again so made my way to Akihabera to pick one up, stopped at an internet cafe, downloaded the driver and awcho peechee walla I am wired for sound). Well logged on and the second place I surfed to (after watching the Canadian and US soldiers doing a tug of war) was greaterfool.ca and there is was plain as day “And on Friday CREA suggested housing prices may have topped.” Just to recap…”And on Friday CREA suggested housing prices may have topped.” BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. SALES ARE FALLING ALL OVER CANADA. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. I am guessing here but bubble mechanics will take it from here (sorry, no soft landings in bubble mechanics theory). BUYER BEWARE. EVEN THE CREA KNOWS IT. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE.

#204 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 9:06 am

#191 SNOWBOID: “Did hear Hydro costs are way up – maybe time for BC to start importing power from Arizona – likely cheaper.”

************************

Costs will increase if you use power during peak periods — dishwashers/washers/dryers — as a result of the ‘smart meters’ presently being installed.

#205 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 9:19 am

#196 LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS: “Daisy Mae – I think Garth means the little twerp (:-) is politically astute.”

***********************

‘Astute’ = ‘Shrewd’ = ‘clever’.

Right….so tell me, what’s so ‘clever’ about Flaherty?

What was so ‘clever’ about 0/40, 5/35, 5/30…oops, I mean 100% financed mortgages?

I think he’s STUPID. But, that’s just me….. LOL

#206 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 9:25 am

#197 LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS: “From what I’ve read about the Liberals in BC they only use the name Liberals…”

**********************

Now referred to as the ‘Lyin’ Libs’….

#207 Incubus on 03.25.12 at 9:42 am

People Buy Payments – Not Houses

http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/646-why-home-prices-have-much-further-to-fall.html

#208 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 03.25.12 at 9:50 am

#91 Steven Rowlandson – People don’t turn racist, they are all naturally racist.

Just watch a group of little ones playing together. Race is irrelevant until grown ups teach them otherwise.

#209 Victor on 03.25.12 at 10:16 am

#27 By making these kinds of populist changes, the Conservatives finally won their coveted majority while concurrently destroying Ignatieff and the Liberal Party. You can decide who in this narrative was “clever”, “astute”, “shrewd”….or “stupid”.

#210 Timbo on 03.25.12 at 10:23 am

http://america-underwater.tumblr.com/

“This is my condo. Paid $90,000 down, all the money from my divorce settlement because I needed a place to live with my teenager and our pets. I am now $128,000 under water (120%). I don’t have a picture of me in front of it because this afternoon I moved the last of my things out, and I can’t bear to go back. Last year I “explored my options” with Wells Fargo. They told me they “couldn’t even talk to me” until I stopped paying. I asked about principal reduction and they said “Wells Fargo doesn’t do that.” One year later, I made the awful decision to give up my perfect credit rating because I will never, ever have a penny of equity in this place if I paid until I was 80. I am now 55 and very worried about the future. Condo is up for short sale but in terrible shape because I could not afford repairs. I cannot understand the greed of the banks / lenders.”

sad greater fools…..

http://www.guernicamag.com/features/3577/phan_03_15_2012/

“Matt and I bought our first home together, a condo in Oakland, California at the height of the real estate bubble in May 2007. My parents had given us the down payment as a wedding present, with the hope that after a few years of living in a starter condo, we could build enough equity to buy a single-family house to raise their grandchildren.

Within months, the bubble burst, and over the next few years, we watched our property’s value eat away not only our down payment, but also half its purchase worth.”

interesting story and interesting comments…..

#211 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 10:24 am

#158 SCIB: “Why not man up and admit he made a mistake? No way, because its all about getting in power. A politicians first priority.”

*********************

But more importantly, is to STAY in power….and with these numerous screw-ups that will be virtually impossible for the ‘cons’.

People will NOT forget….at least, the informed won’t. So many are naive at this point. But as the shyte hits the fan, soon we’ll all understand the seriousness.

#212 Victor on 03.25.12 at 10:25 am

My last comment was in reply to #207 not #27.

#213 Junius on 03.25.12 at 10:33 am

#203 TRT,

You said, “Like I said…expect $5 per hour for labour and trades jobs within 10 years. Guaranteed!”

Another guarantee. Assuming this is true it would also bring the cost of building a home down substantially and would mean that the average Joe couldn’t buy one. Is that also part of the prediction?

#214 Ben on 03.25.12 at 10:34 am

Canada is a f’n joke. Part 5

I searched on maximum price $300,000 in Edmonhole and all you can find are trailers, row houses and condo’s

Look at this shtbox rowhouse in Edmonhole with sheets as curtains and fake hardwood tile asking $300,000

http://www.polarissells.com/listing/edmonton/schonsee/e3293834-16903-82-st

———————————————————-

Now look at this castle in Dallas asking $300,000

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3109-Kimble-Dr_Plano_TX_75025_M86659-29361?ex=TX546866347

#215 tony w. on 03.25.12 at 10:35 am

416 word-on-the-street says that there will be huge NEW condo sales numbers in March.
HAM is extremely active in downtown TO this month…and there are lots of new pre-sale openings.

#216 Junius on 03.25.12 at 10:42 am

#162 TurnerNation,

The bad construction discussion has gone on for years. Every rapidly rising market in construction or any form of manufacturing brings shoddy production practices as suppliers rush product to market and new employees don’t get proper training. It doesn’t just happen in home building.

What makes home building and other “valuable assets” different is that in a rising market the purchasers don’t seem to care. Since the price of their home can only go up they don’t focus enough on the constructed value of the asset.

The result of the bubble will be years and years of fixes to poor construction. I wouldn’t touch anything bought in the past decades with a ten foot pole without a serious inspection.

#217 Canadian Watchdog on 03.25.12 at 10:51 am

#198 DonDWest
“However, I’m holding my breath, most of his generation have been brainwashed to think of globalization as the key to a healthy economic paradise.”

Actually quite the opposite—it’s the younger generating that’s been brainwashed into believing globalization is a central plan to control the world.

#185 a prairie dawg
Not sure you what you’re asking, but when a portfolio manager says “Who cares?” to the feds pumping liquidity in the stock market, that says it all.

There is major volatility ahead for all stocks. We’re already starting to see REITs have +1% daily swings again.

#218 Mr Buyer on 03.25.12 at 10:57 am

#210Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 03.25.12 at 9:50 am …Just watch a group of little ones playing together. Race is irrelevant until grown ups teach them otherwise.
………………………………………………………………………
I do not think children are the best example. I have 3 little kids and their little lives play out cold and hard everyday. The weak get trampled upon, the different excluded, the rewarded suffer reprisals out of jealousy and resentment. They are innocent in that the harshness they visit upon one another is not done because they have the full capacity to choose not to but do it anyways. BTW. DID YOU HEAR THE NEWS. APPARENTLY THE REAL ESTATE BOARD IS SUGGESTING THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. BUYER BEWARE. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA. Here in Japan, when I accompany my children to the park the entire park full of children run away from my kids when my kids approach them. When my wife (Japanese) accompanies the very same kids nothing happens. When my son saw a black man for the first time is stared wide eyed with his mouth opened and afraid for the entire timew we were at the swimming pool. The propagandists have harmed children by making their imperfectly form humanity out to be something it not truely is. They are innocent to be certain, but not due to an abscence of malice but rather due to an abscence of a full understanding of what they arew doing and the existance of other options.

#219 Timbo on 03.25.12 at 11:23 am

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/23/italy-jobs-minister-elsa-fornero

“The last full-scale attempt to free up Italy’s labour market was 10 years ago. The man behind that reform was Marco Biagi who was shot dead by the self-styled New Red Brigades”

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,823409,00.html

a picture tells a story……

#220 Sky on 03.25.12 at 11:24 am

@ Snowboid : While you’re still in the US shopping mecca, do me a favor? See if you can find some discount global warming and drag it on back to Kelowna. On second thought, forget the discount. Pay full retail if need be!

Alternatively, pick up some winter woolies for yourself and your loved ones. You’re gonna need them.

#221 Snowboid on 03.25.12 at 11:49 am

#190 TurnerNation on 03.24.12 at 10:44 pm…

Come on – we don’t pay for health care in Canada?!! What part of the country is that?

I want to move there, for sure.

#222 Snowboid on 03.25.12 at 11:50 am

#206 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 9:06 am…

If the ‘Liberals’ hadn’t ripped the guts from BC Hydro the province would still have the least expensive power in North America!

Overall, we pay a penny more per kwh in Arizona than BC, but the AZ home is more efficient than the BC condo so the overall bills are much less down south.

It is quite possible sometime in the near future rates will be higher in BC than AZ!!

#223 Snowboid on 03.25.12 at 12:09 pm

#222 Sky on 03.25.12 at 11:24 am…

Unfortunately, last year we gave our winter clothing away to charities in Victoria and Kelowna!

Are you suggesting it’s cold up there?

#224 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 12:16 pm

#211 VICTOR: “…..finally won their coveted majority while concurrently destroying Ignatieff and the Liberal Party.”

**************************

Well, 38% ‘majority’ is nothing to be proud of.

Ignatieff and the Liberals destroyed themselves.

#225 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 03.25.12 at 12:18 pm

@ #195 Smoking Mans…….

HAHAHA . I actually did that joke to a friend of mine back in the 70’s as part of a bunch of drinking games. He didnt appreciate it and the fight was on….. But hey he got the first punch in ON HIMSELF!

Thanks for the memory. LOL

#226 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 12:20 pm

#210 Stupesing in Cabbagetown

So children are innocent little beings without visual prejudice? Kids don’t make fun of the kid that’s too short, tall, fat, skinny, wears glasses, has a big nose, etc.

Yes, the kids play together in spite of their differences, but that’s only because they’re forced to do so by societal pressures from their parents and schools. If left completely to choice, I think you’ll find children to be disturbingly prejudiced.

#227 Mr Buyer on 03.25.12 at 12:29 pm

A friend of mine and myself had a few days off like 18 years ago and we decided we were going to figure out how to pitch a fastball. Went to the library because the net was like three computers hooked up together back then. Scored an actual video and we watched it and went to the local ball diamond which happend to be a dual use elementary school playground. We got the fastball down quite nicely and were starting to get a little heat but really bad acuracy and then the recess bell rang so we surrendered the ball diamond and took a seat on the benches along the street. Well the utter mayhem in the school yard was nicely summed up by this one interaction we observed. A horde of boys were reaptedly sweeping down upon this group of three girls and knocking two of the girls down and then running like hell while pushing the third girl’s wheel chair that she was in. The wheel chair bound girl would scream and yell at the boys and the boys would quickly return to fighting with one another for the right to run really fast while pushing the protesting wheel chair bound girl. This process was carried out repeatedly over the course of the recess. This was one of many many scenes playing out across the school yard. My buddy and I were not soft people by a long stretch but upon witnessing recess for two days we both agreed that we blocked out most of childhood and would not have the stones to cope with a similar reality in adult life. This only lasted two days of our four day training schedule because at my behest we moved on to curve balls and my buddy completely destroyed first his elbow and then on the next pitch his shoulder and has never forgiven me. The kids were not angels but by and large still mostly innocent. This projection of cherub like states upon children sets them up for harsh reprisals by their caregivers based upon the false assumption that they truely know better at the time. My son routinely puts his shoes on the wrong feet and will continue to do so until the complexity of his neural net reaches a level that makes that awareness durable even amongst the larger stimuli and awarenesses. It does not matter how many times I show him or explain why or how to remember. The process of learning drives new connection formation and until an efficient relay is in place he will be vulnerable to crosstalk that drowns out awareness.

#228 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 12:31 pm

#219 Canadian Watchdog

“Actually quite the opposite—it’s the younger generating that’s been brainwashed into believing globalization is a central plan to control the world.”
My thoughts are my own – I’ve always been taught globalization is good. Through my own self-education and critical thinking – I have come to the conclusion globalization is bad.

I know the system is evil because those who criticize it are ostracized. If you wish to find evil in the room – find out what you’re not permitted to criticize. If you wish to discover good – find out who is criticized the most.

#229 Mr Buyer on 03.25.12 at 12:42 pm

In short, adults are often vulnerable to assesing children in a manner that assumes and projects the existance of a neural network in a given child’s possesion of the same complexity as said adult and very often such is simply not the case at the time.

#230 bubba on 03.25.12 at 12:48 pm

For those of you that don’t get it, the World is following the Communist Model.

Maurice Strong(hiding in China) Clinton’s Gores have sold us all out under AGENDA 21.

The aim is equal sharing , wealth distribution but not at highest common denominator, but lowest common denominator.

In the US they have already passed laws that allow foreign workers in to work for less, we are talking IT to Surgeons….even if there are unemployed Americans

#231 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 12:49 pm

#207 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 9:19 am
#196 LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS: “Daisy Mae – I think Garth means the little twerp (:-) is politically astute.”

***********************

‘Astute’ = ‘Shrewd’ = ‘clever’.

Right….so tell me, what’s so ‘clever’ about Flaherty?

What was so ‘clever’ about 0/40, 5/35, 5/30…oops, I mean 100% financed mortgages?

I think he’s STUPID. But, that’s just me….. LOL

…………………………

Daisy Mae

My version of astute was the following – check the synonyms:

as·tute/əˈst(y)o͞ot/
Adjective:
Having or showing an ability to accurately assess situations or people and turn this to one’s advantage: “an astute businessman”.
Synonyms:
shrewd – sly – wily – crafty – canny – artful – sharp

Anywho, I agree with you. Maybe I didn’t use the proper word – my post was during the middle of the night, IIRC & I was tired. I can’t stand the little twerp, nor the BIG twerp & his robots.

#232 Dan in Victoria on 03.25.12 at 12:52 pm

All of you talking about the young kids.
Read Lord of the flies.
Great book.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_of_the_Flies

#233 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 12:54 pm

so ver on 03.25.12 at 9:50 am
#91 Steven Rowlandson – People don’t turn racist, they are all naturally racist.

Just watch a group of little ones playing together. Race is irrelevant until grown ups teach them otherwise.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

So very true #210 Stupesing in Cabbagetown.

#234 Canadian Watchdog on 03.25.12 at 1:00 pm

#230 DonDWest

The question isn’t if it’s bad or not, rather can it be stopped.

#235 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 1:01 pm

#228 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 12:20 pm

So children are innocent little beings without visual prejudice? Kids don’t make fun of the kid that’s too short, tall, fat, skinny, wears glasses, has a big nose, etc.

Yes, the kids play together in spite of their differences, but that’s only because they’re forced to do so by societal pressures from their parents and schools. If left completely to choice, I think you’ll find children to be disturbingly prejudiced.

………………………..

Maybe you should check out:

How to Break Out of a Victim Mentality: 7 Powerful Tips

http://www.positivityblog.com/index.php/2009/10/09/how-to-break-out-of-a-victim-mentality-7-powerful-tips/

#236 Victor on 03.25.12 at 1:06 pm

#226 Daisy Mae

Pride has nothing to do with it. The Conservatives got to the intended destination and now have the control they need in Parliament to do as they please.

#237 Mr Buyer on 03.25.12 at 1:09 pm

Case in point. I was a slacker of the highest degree throughout my childhood school life. One day my poor teacher sent a note home after I submitted some patched together project even after recieving a strap for a previous similar offence. Well my caregivers at the time came to the conclusion that I should be taken out of the activity I loved the most which was hockey. Now I can not clearly recall how the following came to be but my enduring lesson from that experience was that I should not be passionate about something because it can be used against me. I do not think that was anywhere near the intended lesson to be learned and I reframed the experience subsequent to the evolution of a more complex neural network. What is clearly intended as one thing may well be recieved as something entirely different. I often say that I am a life long learner but I do not think they meant one should take a life time to learn any given thing.

#238 jess on 03.25.12 at 1:22 pm

Ben –
what are you water and air conditioning costs /month?
How many wells are contaminated in Texas?

Bankruptcy jitters in Stockton. Will other cities fail? Does Texas have that “shoot first law ?”
I wouldn’t want to be in an argument over trash and getting a very expensive health bill due to gun shot wounds.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/us-usa-florida-shooting-law-idUSBRE82M19V20120323

How long have the children left behind been fed pink slime? Why are one in five Texas living in poverty?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/24/us-food-slime-scientist-idUSBRE82N0AG2012

#239 a prairie dawg on 03.25.12 at 1:32 pm

#219 Canadian Watchdog on 03.25.12 at 10:51 am

Not sure you what you’re asking, but when a portfolio manager says “Who cares?” to the feds pumping liquidity in the stock market, that says it all.

– — –

I was just saying I haven’t followed Sprott much since Tardif left, and hadn’t heard that much about Hodson. Most of what can be found in online searches now is stories about him leaving to start an investment advisory newsletter. (like there’s a shortage of those…lol)

And REIT’s by themselves aren’t exactly the bell weather of overall market strength. What other indicators do you think are pointing to broader market volatility?

#240 deja view? on 03.25.12 at 1:42 pm

When freedom is ‘not owning’ your own place.
Unless your condo is a most desirable location, condos for the most part are not investments.
My wife’s aunt (now 87) sold her house in ’85 to buy a condo in a Metrotown tower (Bby).
Add up all her out of pocket expenses including taking out an 80K mortgage to pay for her share of leaky condo syndrome (2 yrs draped in mesh) including re-doing all the interior copper piping because the builder used thin wall copper, loss of interest, property taxes, condo fees which kept escalating, new double glazed windows etc etc against having rented.. and she broke even at best.
A lot of financial and psychological stress.. which she paid for!
That’s some investment.

#241 Ben on 03.25.12 at 1:47 pm

Real Estate agencies still pumping it to newbies though.

First Time Buyer Tax Credit

It’s that time of year and many people are not aware that the government of Canada is offering a tax credit to first time home buyers. You can qualify for the tax credit even if you bought your second home in some cases. In addition, if you bought a home to accomodate a person with a disability you can qualify for the tax credit. The CRA put out this video that explains it all:

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/2012/03/first-time-buyer-tax-credit.html

#242 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 2:13 pm

#220 MR BUYER: “Here in Japan, when I accompany my children to the park the entire park full of children run away from my kids when my kids approach them.”

************************

When my daughter (Caucasian) visits Kenya, people stare…because people are curious. She doesn’t feel uncomfortable — it’s not ‘racist’.

#243 Ben on 03.25.12 at 2:38 pm

#239 jess

Water, A/C and all utilities are included in the $750 a month.

#244 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 2:41 pm

“And mercifully, it is ending.”

*********************************

KELOWNA/WEST KELOWNA. Almost every commercial on the radio this morning has been a ‘real estate’ commercial. Wow….talk about desperation!

#245 Canadian Watchdog on 03.25.12 at 3:19 pm

#241 a prairie dawg

Low volume is a pretty good sign of market weakness, but more so, the fact that smart money has moved out of equities for the 4th consecutive week. http://i44.tinypic.com/34sj9et.jpg The rally is nothing more then less participants trading on wider bid/ask spreads.

I expect Hedge Funds and institutional money to start booking Q1 profits (selling) sometime in the next couple of weeks as earnings are expected to disappoint across the board, especially banks and financials who earn commissions/fees off volume.

Rough ride ahead.

Especially if you follow the herd, as you suggest. — Garth

#246 Snowboid on 03.25.12 at 3:23 pm

#240 jess on 03.25.12 at 1:22 pm…

You need to spend some time down here before you can form opinions based on MSM reports.

Arizona water is less per month than BC (quality isn’t as good as it comes from the Colorado river). Air-conditioning is about the same as winter heating up north.

No wells contaminated here.

Other than the nut-cases you read about (here and in Canada) there isn’t any issues with guns. Of course the potential is greater here because there are more guns (we haven’t seen but one person in many months carrying a gun).

You believe ‘pink-slime’ or their equivalents aren’t in Canadian food products? Think again.

Try looking up poverty in BC, maybe not as bad as down here, but close.

Just wait a few months and then compare the two, remember the US is gradually recovering.

Canada, on the other hand, is not.

#247 a prairie dawg on 03.25.12 at 3:35 pm

#246 Daisy Mae

Almost every commercial on the radio this morning has been a ‘real estate’ commercial. Wow….talk about desperation!

– — –

Cattle 101: Milk the herd ‘before’ it stampedes…

#248 Canadian Watchdog on 03.25.12 at 3:52 pm

Especially if you follow the herd, as you suggest. — Garth

Smart money is a minority until it turns into dumb money, the majority. Why buy overpriced stocks when you can buy some HIX cheap! http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=39327&qm_symbol=HIX

It’s the same old rule of thumb that 95% of investors still don’t get and probably never will.

It’s cheap for a reason. — Garth

#249 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 3:57 pm

Got a question:

I seem to recall that the law has changed so that one can live outside of Canada when one retires & still collect CPP & OAS without having to live in Canada for 6 months of the year.

Am I mistaken????

#250 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 3:58 pm

#236 Canadian Watchdog

“The question isn’t if it’s bad or not, rather can it be stopped.”

In good time, modern day globalization will destroy itself as it always has every single time attempted throughout history.

Not religious by any means, but the tower of Babel is a classical rebuttal against globalization. Globalization failed with the Romans, globalization failed with the Persians, globalization failed with the Ottoman Empire, globalization failed with the Brits, WWI started because the world was too globalized and every nation was aligned with one and another, etc.

Globalization has a horrible track record – she will fail us today and she has failed us then. Globalization fails because the very system fails to recognize or accept one universal truth: we’re all different – and we should respect those differences. Unity isn’t strength – diversity is strength.

Narturally, globalization will stop, unfortunately by that time we’ll be entering another “dark age.” Can you stop the thirsty sheeple from drinking the poisoned well? That’s a good question, the answer is no, but where exactly does that leave you?

#251 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 03.25.12 at 4:21 pm

I agree 100% with DonDWest #198

#252 Canadian Watchdog on 03.25.12 at 4:34 pm

#252 DonDWest

Except every empire throughout history didn’t have the biggest invention of our time, the internet. Human ingenuity will prevail, so no need to worry about the return of guillotines to behead the sheeple.

I recommend to watch some Davos 2012 conferences on youtube. That should give you some insight on what’s really going on.

#253 live within your means on 03.25.12 at 4:45 pm

PS to my previous post – 251

Many years ago my DH & I looked into my getting French citizenship – unbelievable hassles as they wanted all kinds of papers, most of which were lost due to WW2. My PIL’s live in Metz, France. My understanding is that it would be so much easier for me to obtain French citizenship now. If I can, & we could both receive CPP & OAS without having to live in Canada for 6 mos. each year, we would retire in France. I’d love nothing better as we have lots of friends in many departments in France.

#254 thirsty man on 03.25.12 at 4:54 pm

@#180 Ben on 03.24.12 at 9:29 pm
Ben,
You shouldn’t complain about taxes. You are still getting the beer much cheaper then the rest of us.

#255 Oceanside on 03.25.12 at 4:55 pm

Saw Michael Campbell on Sunday Global News this morning saying that according to ReMax that 10 major centres in Canada saw price increases and intimated that taking advantage of low interest rates may be a good idea. I can’t believe that these shills can actually come out with this stuff with a straight face!

#256 weekend open house tour on 03.25.12 at 5:05 pm

long time listers are now offering their properties for rent… sale price and rental price listed together… interesting…

#257 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.25.12 at 5:05 pm

#203 TRT — “The world is diverging I tell you…but no one listens…everyone has their own opinions. PS… he hates unions and know-it-alls.”
— and —
#232 bubba — “For those of you that don’t get it, the World is following the Communist Model. Maurice Strong (hiding in China) Clinton’s Gores have sold us all out under AGENDA 21. The aim is equal sharing , wealth distribution but not at highest common denominator, but lowest common denominator.”

Gentleoffsprings, both of you have hit the proverbial hammer on the head with a nail (or something like that). Agenda 21, CC — they’re all part of the same BS.

It explains why Soros, who has long admired China’s govt., way of life and doing business, is calling the shots in the WH (along with the elite) and driving the west into unnecessary austerity measures.

Hence, the cycle must change to the Yellow – Red races ASAP, to put the west out of its self-imposed misery.

#258 mel in victoria on 03.25.12 at 5:07 pm

There are surprisingly few gold bugs on this blog recently… either Garth is still deleting all of the comments, or they are waking up to news like this:

India increasing gold duties & reducing gold imports:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/16/the-worlds-largest-gold-importer-wants-to-slam-on-the-brakes/

No new deletions, just capitulations. — Garth

Correction……….Garth prints my comments when I recommend selling gold and silver as I did when they peaked a few weeks ago …….not my recent ‘nibble’ as prices over sold and due for at least a dead cat bounce. I’m not a gold or silver bug, but trade them like others trade wheat, pork bellies, coffee, etc..But let’s face it this is a RE blog….so no hard feelings.

#259 TurnerNation on 03.25.12 at 5:27 pm

So many anti-Boomerites! Is there a new law, against Boomercide?

Disclosure: not a Boomer. Nor a Zoomer.

#260 Coho on 03.25.12 at 5:33 pm

It has come to the point where young couples have to choose between having a property title deed or having a child because they cannot afford both. And for many, their personal or collective family ego won’t consider renting as an option. The mantra ‘buy now or buy never’ as unbelievable as it may seem, still pushes the cattle to buy whether they can afford it or not. We’ve heard the mantra repeated for months, years, and decades on end. Yet, to this day, homes are still bought and sold! Imagine that!

And how sad is it that so many choose the house over the child. “The children can wait” they say. “We can’t afford to have a child, but we can certainly afford a big honkin mortgage”, they add.

Some couples don’t want to have children and that is OK, of course. To each their own. But, putting off plans to start a family because of the fear ‘buy now or buy never’, or for the sake of being able to wave the title of property ownership in front of your friends and in-laws is pathetic. Where’s the humanity…?

I’m a boomer, and when I was a kid there isn’t one family I can think of that owned a house before having their first child or two. They were all renting with 2, 3, or 4 kids running around before they purchased their first house.

#261 45north on 03.25.12 at 5:38 pm

DonDWest: Not religious by any means, but the tower of Babel is a classical rebuttal against globalization.

Globalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people, and economic activity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization

Babel however is the opposite, it refers to the severing of relationships:

That is why it was called Babel,* because there the LORD confused the speech of all the world. From there the LORD scattered them over all the earth.

http://www.usccb.org/bible/genesis/11/

This is God’s plan: increasingly global relationships of culture, people, and economic activity. At least a part of it.

#262 Ben on 03.25.12 at 5:42 pm

#256 thirsty man on 03.25.12 at 4:54 pm

Ben,
You shouldn’t complain about taxes. You are still getting the beer much cheaper then the rest of us.

———————————————————-

Yup, a case of Bud is $11.00 and a carton of Marlboro is $53 and that’s not from your local Indian reserve.

#263 patiently waiting on 03.25.12 at 5:45 pm

Without access to MLX, anyone know where to get updated weekly RE stats on listings/sales and average days on market?
—————————————————————–

Just send me your contact info and the basics of what you are searching for to [email protected] , and I will send the info to you if it is in the lower mainland.

#264 Ogopogo on 03.25.12 at 7:24 pm

#246 Daisy Mae on 03.25.12 at 2:41 pm
“And mercifully, it is ending.”

*********************************

KELOWNA/WEST KELOWNA. Almost every commercial on the radio this morning has been a ‘real estate’ commercial. Wow….talk about desperation!

So true. And yet you’d be hard pressed to find any reference to the dire state of Kelowna RE on Castanet.

There will be a lot of denial and gnashing of teeth in this town in the years ahead. Already checking out this year’s property assessments has become a blood sport.

#265 Westernman on 03.25.12 at 7:44 pm

[email protected]#200,
My GOD no! Manual labour…how perfectly awful.
I hope the thought of actually doing something didn’t traumatize you too much. You can always run crying to the the nearest doctor and get some pills to ease the terror of actually doing something physically…
It’s inconcievable to you that there is life beyond your Mom’s basement and your computer screen , isn’t it?
Keep on whining, kid…

#266 Kaganovich on 03.25.12 at 8:40 pm

#254 watchdog

You wrote, “Except every empire throughout history didn’t have the biggest invention of our time, the internet. Human ingenuity will prevail, so no need to worry about the return of guillotines to behead the sheeple.”

Your trust in the internet’s beneficence is overly optimistic. Human ingenuity always prevails, but the question is in which direction? DonDwest makes a valid point. I think that much more than the internet is necessary to avoid a reversion to a darker time. Borgia was probably just as ingenious as Rousseau or Mill. Last time the madame guillotine made an appearance, it was the elites heads that got lopped off, not the sheeples’.

Here, Chomsky makes sense on this topic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdNAUJWJN08

#267 DonDWest on 03.25.12 at 10:43 pm

#267 Westernman

Next you’ll suggest I get a job running a horse buggy and carriage. Nothing against manual labour back in the day, I’m unafraid of dirt, but one must get with the times.

#268 Bill Gable on 03.26.12 at 2:54 pm

Thanks for your kind comments – but I am taking my cue from our host.
Mr. Turner is a very compassionate man. (*Full disclosure – he is our Family’s financial advisor, and I consider him part of our Family. His partner, Scott is a gem as well).
They have taken the time to help, on a FEE based basis.

If you don’t care for people, no one will care about you.

My Realtor friend has been a gem and we think we have found a place for my ill friend.

We can all add more altruism to our lives.

Let’s take more time to help others, and we will all be better off.

I think it was the least I could do.
It was the least I could do.

Why?

#269 Bill Gable on 03.26.12 at 2:57 pm

I also can’t type worth a darn….sorry.

It has been a long day already.

Why not? It should have been; and sorry about repeated line.

Sheesh. Darn Iphone. LOL

#270 X on 03.26.12 at 6:09 pm

F should do the right thing and decrease amortization periods to a maximum of 25 years. 1/3 of people are retiring w debt, and a long amortization period is not helping. Working careers are starting later due to education.

Dropping the period from 30 to 25 years really will make a minimal difference on monthly payments. I am sick of politicians trying to save their own butt, rather than doing what is best for the public.

#271 MajorLimbo on 03.26.12 at 8:35 pm

I’m on the rental plan – have been since 07, now married, 34, cash in the bank, no debt .. but with a child on the way and a wife with dreams of a home and a yard, what am I to do? I hate condo’s, sh!t parking and sharing elevators with Chinese who don’t brush their teeth. I can’t continue to live in 1000 sqft with no room for guests .. but I’m not about to move into redneck land and spend 2 hours a day commuting. It is hopeless… [email protected] all you greedy boomers who have ruined this country. We have no one to look up to and live in a bewildered state of temporary.

How about moving into a barn with the rest of your species? — Garth

#272 “I graduated from high school in this city in 1980 and out of the 300 members of my grad class no more than 25 of them now own a house in the neighborhood we grew up in. We are not all stupid and lazy.” on 03.27.12 at 2:47 am

[…] “I graduated from high school in this city in 1980 and out of the 300 or so members of my grad class I would say that no more than 20 or 25 of them now own a house in the neighborhood we grew up in. We are not all stupid and lazy. The laughable irony is that at the 30th high school reunion that almost all of the people present came from other areas of the Lower Mainland for the reunion. One guy I know from my class who is a lawyer mentioned to me one day that he could never afford the house he grew up in, and his father now retired was a blue collar tradesman. For him to ever get near the old neighborhood, well, someone’s gotta die first. In fact that is exactly how some of my classmates are now moving back to the area they grew up in, but none of them will admit to that. It’s just a big coincidence that they move back a few months after someone kicks off. The guts of the middle class in this city have been ripped right out of it. I know at least 18 people who have left Vancouver simply because they realized at some point that they were NEVER going to own a house here, and spending the rest of their lives in a over mortgaged rabbit hutch was not acceptable. Many of them are now in Alberta. I have read that 55,000 people under the age of 45 have left Vancouver. Vancouver is the most over rated city on earth. Like a Hollywood movie set where the street scene looks real, if you step behind the facade of the Vancouver illusion then things here are really quite ugly. There are a lot of serious social problems in this city that no one wants to admit exist because the Vancouver illusion must be maintained at all costs.” – John H at greaterfool.ca 23 Mar 2012 11:05pm […]