The harbinger

When a university student from China offered $1.1 million for a dinky Toronto house listed at $759,000 this week, the predictable happened. It was news. The media was all over it. “Is this the harbinger of a frantic Spring market?” the Globe asked. Smiling, if amazed, realtors said yes. Buy now, or buy never.

At about the same time, a second major bank quietly told the industry it’s getting out of the high-risk mortgage business. TD will shutter its non-prime lending operation, TD Financing Services, at the end of the month. This comes as CIBC formally announced it’s selling FirstLine mortgages, which for years has been shoveling out billions to finance mostly high-ratio loans made through mortgage brokers across the country.

TD says, “To remain competitive, it would have required us to increase (that) risk profile, something we’re not prepared to do.” Of course not.  More risk is more risk, especially at a time when housing has hit an unsustainable orgiastic $1.1 million-for-an-old-bung crescendo. And unlike the people banks loan money to, they ain’t stupid.

Only in retrospect will these days find context. Like when Nortel was $120 a share and pension funds could not gobble enough of it. Or when investors sunk $82 million into the IPO of Pets.com, a company which had $619,000 in revenues, spent $11.8 million on advertising and lost money on every bag of dog food. Or Bre-X. Or (soon) FB.

In years to come, the annals of idiocy will be filled with pictures of Vancouver crack shacks listed for fortunes and, of course, the $1.1 million North Toronto bungalow snatched from the arms of 16 other bidders by a university student, for cash. Beside that will be a chart showing the growth of personal debt in Canada during a time when the economy was stuttering and employment waning. And the caption, “What were they thinking?”

– SaskatoonHousingBubble

Days ago I shared with you what’s happened with sales in Vancouver. In recent weeks, they’ve been disintegrating. And how can that be a surprise when (according to the Royal Bank) it now takes 86% of a family’s pre-tax earnings (and 106% of their tax-home income) just to afford a house there? Now compare this Canadian city with its closest comparable US neighbour – Seattle, with a metro area of four million people, long considered to be immune from the same real estate correction which shaved 70% off the average Phoenix house and 40% from that in Miami.

The average SFH in Van today is $1.1 million. The median home in Seattle is $320,000. That’s 4% less than last year, and 18.6% lower than in 2007. If Vancouver prices were to drop by almost 19% next year, there’d be thousands of underwater condo owners and an uncontrollable explosion in listings, taking prices much lower in the months following. And it would not stop in the Lower Mainland. And it’s probably coming.

This past week the Bank of Canada clearly signaled (if you paid attention) that interest rates will be going up. Hell, even the prime minister said it when touring Toronto yesterday. On Friday came the news the economy shed more jobs last month, even as the US added hundreds of thousands. And in recent days all the big banks have cranked fixed-term mortgage rates down to the lowest levels in history, even while two of them scramble out of the brokerage business, in a desperate battle for market share.

Put it together. This is not hard. How can central bankers allow a debt orgy to continue, knowing the economy’s swampy and housing’s a bomb? How can people believe their excess is normal? How’s real estate safer in 2012 than Nortel in 2000? How can it possibly end well?

The papers are right.  Harbinger.

285 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 03.09.12 at 9:15 pm

Can I move my bungalow to Willowdale ?

#2 Tim on 03.09.12 at 9:17 pm

Though Carney has hinted about raising rates, he has not done so. Even if he does, it will be very gradual, given that most of the western world has very low interest rates.

Slow or fast. Same end result. — Garth

#3 new_era on 03.09.12 at 9:27 pm

Irresponsible Financing Causes bubbles.

It causes individuals to buy houses they cannot afford. It cause speculation to run wild by lowering the bar of entry.
Finally it leads individual whom has bought years ago at a reasonable price into the speculation trap.
Line of credit has supported the American consumer spending , but at a steep priced. Families are tapped out into home equities with creative loans are now in the same trap as those who bought homes they could afford at the top of the markets.

—> that is what happened and is happening in America. Does this sound familiar in Canada?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-original-kyle-bass-subprime-presentation

#4 Rob now in NS on 03.09.12 at 9:32 pm

Garth, what was the correct answer from the contest 2 days ago? Inquiring minds want to know. Thx.

#5 Curious on 03.09.12 at 9:38 pm

Can “a university student from China” get CMHC insurance for a real estate purchase in Canada?

Are there residency requirements on all of this?

No mortgage, no CHMC. – Garth

#6 Brad on 03.09.12 at 9:39 pm

Amazing, Canadians are being priced out of their own country to the highest bidder. Banks are throwing fuel on the fire with historically low interest rates. Politicians sit idly by and do nothing to stop it. Just when I thought things couldnt get more #[email protected]#% up.

#7 The American on 03.09.12 at 9:39 pm

Garth, THANK YOU kindly for providing the service you are to your fellow Canadians. Tonight’s entry is perhaps your best ever, bringing much of what you’ve been speaking into real context for your readers. Perhaps I should not care so much as I am not even Canadian, however, I cannot help but feel tremendous empathy for the families who will experience the downturn.

#8 Steve-O on 03.09.12 at 9:41 pm

Garth, What do you think of transglobe apartment reit? I already own it, but wanted a second opinion.

#9 Uh Oh Canada on 03.09.12 at 9:49 pm

“How can people believe their excess is normal?”

Been asking this for years. Apparently, renting and staying out of debt is so uncool. Not owning stainless steel appliances is really abnormal too. Yes, many I know are in a lot of debt and think nothing of it. The entitlement attitude is the new norm.

#10 jess on 03.09.12 at 9:49 pm

Wouldn’t the chinese prefer the hamptons

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/the_lam_ptons_f0nKELjJhAsECgw7RzAzjK#ixzz1ofpX3OkF
=

#11 bungalow sold dude on 03.09.12 at 9:50 pm

Sold my Etobicoke bungalow Monday for asking in 20 hours. I am hugging myself I’m so happy. Thanks Garth for the advice over the last few years. Your guidance led me to making the sale at this moment, the pinnacle of the housing market. I sat with my agent tonight watching the willodale $400k over asking fiasco on CP24, then listened to her tell me “It’s going to crash, this is ridiculous”

#12 NoName on 03.09.12 at 9:52 pm

When a university student from China offered $1.1 million for a dinky Toronto house…

Garth is there some kind of tax, on a funds he (student who purchased house) will bring from china to pay for the house?
scenario1
he is international student
scenario2
he is permanent resident

It was a she. And, no. — Garth

#13 L on 03.09.12 at 9:57 pm

Garth, it’s not accurate to compare average and median price. Although I am sure your point would still be made if you used the Seattle average.

Then go find it for me. — Garth

#14 Freedom first on 03.09.12 at 9:58 pm

I am way past arguing with anyone. In my personal life I keep my opinions to myself about the housing market in Canada, the U.S., Europe, China, everywhere. It is a delight though, to have this blog,……thanks Garth, to hear some sanity regarding finances. To not be diversified, and not only to have just the 1 asset, and have it leveraged is insane. There is no exception. It only proves this saying true……”A wise man needs no advice…….and a fool never takes it”……….please know this, I take no satisfaction in watching the financial slaughter of the many, many millions of people worldwide that has, and is happening right now. This is not from a doomer….as life is good for many, myself included, and will remain so for many……as they did not drink the Kool-aid. Unfortunately, the enablers of this financial tsunami, not only profit, but escape all blame.

#15 Mrrk on 03.09.12 at 10:07 pm

It seems to me that every Chinese buyer getting off the plane with a bag of money provides a Canadian with a liquid retirement fund… bring em on. We will miss them when they wise up and stop paying stupid prices.

#16 truth hammer on 03.09.12 at 10:07 pm

It’s not surprising that a ‘university student from China’ was able to table a million in cash. Canadians just refuse to understand the endemic corruption in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phills. It is not the ‘kid’ who has paid the million really, it is his corrupt and well placed parent.

I know….the liberal wack jobs will scream ‘rascism’ ‘hate speech’…..’make him be quiet’…..’no Canadian should know the truth’….’it will wreck our liberal plans for a global village and ‘the big kum bay ya thats sure to come’…’truth hammer is a bad man’ ….but seriously folks…….Canada is a laundry mart for Asain graft proceeds….admit it or not.

I was in a buisiness that had direct dealings with this issue. I met lots of bumpkin Chinese bureaucrats and Taiwanese police sargents etc who were way too wealthy for their level of financial sophistication….these were obviously people who had stolen or extorted the money they were bringing in.

I would ask a few simple questions and frame inquiries in such a way that any junior college business student and certainly a self made millionaire would have to know. These thugs and country bumpkins from Chinese military outposts and far flung ministries…..knew nothing about money….or making money….ergo……lets be smart about this Canada…stop being so politically correct….corruption money is a very large part of what has happened to prices.

By the way….I could always out an inheritance case in the same way………getting your greasy fingers on grammies pile does not make you an entrepeneur pally…..don’t think you’re fooling anyone.

Garth, you were CRA….don’t you guys ever think of ‘following the money’? The drug money being laundered out of a certain ethnic community in BC for example….is this all a liberal ‘no go zone?’ Never understood why it’s so difficult to have the buyer or seller…builder…developer….numbered company partner….or immigrant for that matter ….file a financial statement detailing where they got the money.

Look at the fanfare that met the HouseBimbo’s of VanDumpo candidate who was advertised as having ‘yachts and jets’ at her disposal when it came out that her husband ( a certain member of a certain ethnic drug gang) had poured millions into his lavish lifestyle….after allegedly murdering his rivals in a well known history of violence contray to the laws of the land…….or is it all about votes in certain constituencies and they druggies in those communities figured out that they can operate with impunity? The only masters degree this guy had was in thuggery….and we think it’s OK now?

#17 vyw on 03.09.12 at 10:11 pm

If this is the final phase of the bubble, then we’ll see the neighbours list or contact the agent re the other 3 losing bids – all over $1 million. But I suspect that listings will stay low in desired neighbourhoods in the GTA and prices will continue to rise YoY throughout 2012 – check graphs at guava.ca.

Oh and would the people on this blog who wish to place restrictions on foreign ownership appreciate similar rules when we invest in Vegas, Phoenix or Miami? Don’t be idiots.

Face it, even if there’s a crash, the doomers won’t invest – they will just follow the market back up – just look at the US housing market where volume is still low when housing is at 1999 real prices.

#18 Fabrega on 03.09.12 at 10:12 pm

The government is sending mixed signals, Garth. How can you explain their interest rate & personal debt rethoric when at the same time they have increased the HST discount threshold for new homes?

How can you explain that?

#19 Don on 03.09.12 at 10:13 pm

Heads up, BIG deposits and FAST closings

#20 Van guy on 03.09.12 at 10:13 pm

Garth,

We are cooler than you think. Avg Van home is over 1.2 shmill. And we’re doomed too hehe

#21 Van guy on 03.09.12 at 10:13 pm

Garth,

We are cooler than you think. Avg Van home is over 1.2 shmill. And we’re doomed too hehe

http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/03/vancouver-home-prices-set-new-record-high/?src=widget

#22 JoeJoe Bee on 03.09.12 at 10:14 pm

We live in Vancouver and frequent Seattle often. We look at real estate at times when we travel there. Although the median price may show $320,000 in Seattle you would be hard pressed to find anything for that price there unless it were a dump. Surely this figure is comprised of the many studio and one bedroom sales and is not a sole reflection of single family home prices only. To get a decent single family home anywhere in Seattle in a decent neighbourhood would easily cost upward of $500,000-$600,000.

Besides the numbers the graphs comparing Vancouver to Seattle are very concerning to us. We were lucky and sold our downtown Vancouver condo a year ago this March 15th. We took a $17,000 hit after fees. But we felt blessed to get out even though we lost a little cash on the deal. We look around now and it seems like nothing is selling downtown – nothing. We know the real estate downturn has arrived.

If we could find viable jobs in Seattle we would quickly move there. Compared to Vancouver the prices of real estate are much less there and so are the prices for most goods, services, and entertainment. Our quality of life would benefit in ways we cannot imagine here. Aside from the lack of a widespread rail system Seattle as a city is top notch and the people are great too. But getting around in a car is much easier in Seattle than in Vancouver. Tit for tat. I hear they are working on a comprehensive citywide rail system right now and also maybe even getting high speed rail connecting Seattle to Portland. But they are also building a trolly system too like what they have in Amsterdam. As an example they are building a brand new waterfront and it looks like it is going to be unlike anything anyone has ever seen. We enjoy living in Vancouver but this city is getting just too expensive for everything. My point is Seattle seems like it is putting money into its services and parks and we just keep building glass towers without care to how it affects living everyday.

Why pay more here when we could potentially live in a sister city that has so much more to offer? Seattle also has its amazing restaurants, we find it to have nicer and better shopping, without a doubt a better art and music scene, large parks, and bohemian culture. Not to mention it is a beautiful skyline and the architecture is not monotones. Overall we love it there and we would venture to say it is actually a much nicer city than Vancouver especially when you take a tour of it on foot.

So when we see median prices nearly triple here in Vancouver over what they are in Seattle then we know we are going to get nailed here in a crunch. It just doesn’t make any sense and most anyone of our friends would agree living in Seattle is a nicer experience in general. Personally we think all the hype as being the Best Place on Earth is nothing more than a ploy to make us all feel good about the ridiculous debt levels we now somehow stumbled upon. Anyone who believes it is the Best Place on Earth here needs to travel more frequently. You do not even need to get off the continent to know differently. All you need to do is drive two and one half hours South.

#23 Sebee on 03.09.12 at 10:16 pm

How can people believe their excess is normal? How’s real estate safer in 2012 than Nortel in 2000? How can it possibly end well?

Answer is simple: Magic!

Do you think any segment of real estate will be spared?
Rental stock? Commercial? Or is it all more less heading down?

#24 The American on 03.09.12 at 10:18 pm

At #13: L, here is the answer you are seeking. The average list price for Seattle was $561,104 for week ending Feb 29th. So, Vancouver’s average is nearly double what Seattle’s is. I hope this helps!

“The average listing price for Seattle homes for sale on Trulia was $561,104 for the week ending Feb 29, which represents an increase of 1.1%, or $6,009, compared to the prior week and an increase of 1.7%, or $9,586, compared to the week ending Feb 08. Average price per square foot for Seattle WA was $275, an increase of 0.4% compared to the same period last year. Popular neighborhoods in Seattle include Lower Queen Anne, Broadway, Belltown, Columbia City, Greenwood, and East Queen Anne.”

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Seattle-Washington/market-trends/

List price is not sale price, nor average price. — Garth

#25 Phoeey on 03.09.12 at 10:24 pm

I am confident that prices will fall. However it is clear that Toronto govt has created a shortage of decent housing for locals with their immigration policies. Young Chinese with piles of cash should not be allowed to buy property ahead of young local workers. What is the govt trying to achieve? Who does it serve?
I watched in horror in 1989 in Sydney as the price of an ordinary house rose from 5x an ordinary wage to 10x. 22 years later price still has not fallen. Immigration can easily cause a sustained shortage of housing. Solve the shortage and then price will take care of itself.

Local governments do not set immigration policy. But they do allow in xenophobic idiots. — Garth

#26 Sarpar on 03.09.12 at 10:28 pm

In That area, homes are sold over a million. So I am thinking that the realtor low balled to cause such a frenzy that people would bid way above what they asked for
Still waiting for the crash so I can buy!

#27 Smartalox on 03.09.12 at 10:29 pm

So what is with the banks selling of their mass market mortgage businesses? Are the fundamentals looking that bad, or are they trying to distance themselves from responsibility for some of these mortgages that were written?

#28 Eviee 1973 on 03.09.12 at 10:30 pm

Had some polling firm call on behalf of CMHC this week, as soon as I said I was not planning to buy in the Calgary area, they suddenly decided to ditch me.

#29 Static on 03.09.12 at 10:33 pm

23rd

#30 not 1st on 03.09.12 at 10:34 pm

Garth, you’re smart enough to know thats no ordinary university student plunking down 1.1 mil for a place in GTA. More like an asian expat with treasury dollars from the U.S. and instruction from China central planning to start buying hard assets around the world with it cause they know its not going to hold value in paper form.

Some nights this blog is better than TV. — Garth

#31 Fabrega on 03.09.12 at 10:34 pm

#18 Fabrega
I will answer my own question: F and C are lying through their teeth. This buble has a loooooong way to go.

#32 The American on 03.09.12 at 10:43 pm

#13 L, Here are the average sales prices for Seattle zip codes, along with cities that surround Seattle. Very difficult to determine exactly what you are seeking as the average sale price for Seattle specifically as each zip code is broken down. I can tell you the city center zip code is 98101 and then start there and poke around so you at least have a sense where other areas are relative to the city core. Seattle is not shown on a collective whole with an overall average sale price figure. Many of the zip codes are full of crappy condos, especially South of the city. Many include nicer homes. What is telling, however, are the areas with the most price compression are outlying areas of city limits. Happened this way everywhere across the U.S.

http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/Washington/Seattle-heat_map/

#33 ANONYMOUS on 03.09.12 at 10:45 pm

Garth, you said: ( ” How can central bankers allow a debt orgy to continue, knowing the economy’s swampy and housing’s a bomb? ” )

I’m as puzzled as you are, but I think it has something to do with being re-elected, they will do anything and everything to slowly move interest rates lower and lower towards zero, all in a desperate attempt to keep the only lifeblood of this economy on life-support (I’m talking about the house construction & sales & renovation & services industries here.)

My feeling is that they will keep talking about how rates are going to go up soon, but then turn around and quietly LOWER rates down another 2 or 3 % from where it is right now.
If times get bad enough, the government will offer negative interest rates, in an attempt to try to ‘kick-start’ the economy.

Central bankers are not elected. — Garth

#34 webcanto on 03.09.12 at 10:45 pm

Was the seller of the 1.1 million home a Canadian or was he or she Chinese?

So what? — Garth

#35 Devore on 03.09.12 at 10:49 pm

There’s been some speculation the Chinese buyer is a known flipper operating a pump and dump operation. This has happened in Richmond and a couple Burnaby areas in Vancouver. Step A) buy some real estate in an area, B) rapidly escalate prices over asking through a couple ridiculous bidding wars, latest sales establish comparables, C) sell previously purchased real estate, D) profit! The telling sign will be whether sales evaporate and bidding wars become a distant memory a couple of months from now.

#36 eagle eyes on 03.09.12 at 10:51 pm

Do you think when Harper visited China, the discussion went like this?

“Mr. Harper, do you think that you could stop allowing chinese citizens stealing from our government into your country? In order for you to suck up to us and please us (because we have lots of money and you want some), we need for you to stop laundering money for these crooks. Your cooperation is much appreciated when we ask you to send them back for us to do as we wish to them.”

#37 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 10:53 pm

#215Static on 03.09.12 at 10:13 pm
AKA DA is of the ethical Realtor camp. So DA, how could this possibly be 2002 again? Should interest rates not be much higher which would eat away at the function of leverage? Function of leverage is the only reason prices are where they are. It is mathematically impossible for prices to increase faster than wages at this point.

When I say 2012 seems like 2002 again, I am simply referring to it’s position in a typical economic cycle. Just a gut feel as I say… Your milage may differ. Trust your own instincts not mine. I got a feeling and it’s just the start, might fade but it’s there enough that I thought I’d mention it for what it is worth.

Now quit with the irreverent nit-picking will you? };-) Give me something to really lay in to.

#38 comfortably numb on 03.09.12 at 10:54 pm

DA

“Get in touch with and trust your instincts. Seriously.
Your instincts not mine.”

Seriously, my instincts are just fine. Those instincts have allowed me to sell a half dozen properties over the past five years, harvest the gains and invest wisely, as Garth has suggested. Year to date those investments are now up 10%. So, while I appreciate your advice please save it for someone who actually needs it or wants it.
BTW what ever happened to the bet between you and Garth ? Didn’t it involve you choosing real estate in Kelowna and Garth having a portfolio of equities ? I suspect you wouldn’t be faring too well.

#39 Spiltbongwater on 03.09.12 at 11:02 pm

DELETED

#40 blase on 03.09.12 at 11:03 pm

Re: #22 JoeJoe Bee,

Interesting post. I have a friend who has lived abroad and recently returned to Vancouver. He loves to hype V and dismiss Seattle, but I fear he is in for a rude awakening. I don’t think the Van of even 10 years ago exists anymore.

Your “glass towers” comments made me think back to a visit I made to Surfer’s Paradise, Australia 10 years ago. Imagine a city that was once a surfer mecca a la Maui or Maverick’s in California, that has been transformed into a glass city of condos for wealthy Asians. I guess Asians don’t like the beach, because the place was basically built for gamblers, shoppers, and people who want to live 30 floors above the beach. No thanks, I’ll take Byron Bay up the way a few km, where I could rent a tent right beside the beach, not a glass tower in site, and where I could watch the dolphins surf with the boarders.

I wish Vancouver politicians would have put more value on what made Vancouver special. I’m sure the money in their bank accounts isn’t as comforting as they anticipated, knowing they have become just another boring, glass box Asian city. Sad.

#41 JW on 03.09.12 at 11:05 pm

My sister has been trying to sell her lovely character home albeit on a busy street for months now in the epic center of asian lust….Richmond, BC. Very few calls and no offers. Two price reductions and counting…. I’ve told her to take the nearest reasonable offer, but nothing yet. I fear they will be stuck with this place for a lot longer. Fortunately they paid about 25% less than the current listing price, but it looks like if they really want to sell, they’ll be be lucky to walk away with much in the way of profit…. BTW, listing is still over 1 Mil

#42 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 11:07 pm

This is what happens when someone presses the panic button.

http://i42.tinypic.com/14tvwqv.png

TREB MAP http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/buying/district_map/index.htm

#43 not 1st on 03.09.12 at 11:08 pm

If someone had 1.1 million cash to dump on a old bung in god forsaken T.O., then why on earth are they going to university? To be a teacher?

Something else is up and its not a conspiracy theory either. Offshore funds of some type are coming into Canada via expats who are either long time citizens or newcomers with family or governmental ties to their home land and a agenda to buy our assets with our own dollars. The Japanese were doing the same thing 20 years ago. If you had a trillion U.S. dollars what would you do with it? Buy bonds?

#44 Geneticists on 03.09.12 at 11:10 pm

I was at the bank today with my lovely scotia branch manager. He and I were discussing real estate, LOC, HELOC, etc. he said the average mortgage being spit out of his branch is 400-500k, and many parents are taking out mortgages to give their kids down payments. The RSP is a thing of the past he said, and the point he was making was – just like in the USA – people are using this artificial valuation of their house as an ATM to pay off other debts, renovate, etc.

I remain mystified at the doubling of housing prices, without an even close resemblance of an increase in wages.

I asked the branch manager his thoughts, and his words were simple, “we’re just selling a product (mortgages), like the corner store sells its wares”…

The 2.99/3.99 mortgages are traps, stay far away from them. The penalties are huge! The small print is deadly. It’s akin to Honda saying that their cars start at $14000!!! That’s with not a single addon.

If you have a good relationship with your bank manager, go ask him or her if they’ve seen an increase (or how much of an increase I should say) in HELOC applications.

At some point the banks will need their money back and they won’t be going after just the HELOC, but also the plain and simple lines of credit that are maxed out. Someone has to pay them back, and if the bank wants it back guess what, people are going to have to sell their houses and clear off LOC AND HELOC AND CREDIT CARDS etc.

I couldn’t agree with Garth, et al. This won’t end well.

#45 Sp on 03.09.12 at 11:12 pm

Garth,
The conspiratorial comments from your xenophobic fans are getting ridiculous. So now the CCP is buying Canadian dog houses? Now this is better than little green men.

#46 sven72 on 03.09.12 at 11:18 pm

#26 – from what I heard, they didn’t underprice the house. as sad as it is, i think houses like that in the area go between 700-800K and it was listed at 759K. i dont think they expected the bidding war and final selling price.

#47 Larry on 03.09.12 at 11:19 pm

Hey Garth, Is it illegal to make too much money in your TFSA?

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/08/cra-probing-high-flying-tfsas/

#48 thinker on 03.09.12 at 11:22 pm

Anyone have a link to this story of the 1.1m sale?

#49 Static on 03.09.12 at 11:27 pm

#37 AKA DA What position in the economic cycle does your insticts tell you we are in? Forget dates, give me details.

#50 Narrowgate on 03.09.12 at 11:29 pm

Enough is enough! We are living in a warped, toxic economy and have been for a long time. The money these Chinese have is based on corruption and evils, the false affordability of our goods is based on slave labour and the nauseating prices of these crab-shack houses is based on a ponzi scheme run by the elites. Don’t fall for it! Wake up and see what is happening to Canada. Just as America was sold down the river and faces decades of re-building, Canada and Canadians are being led down
a cliff.
Best advice: live within your means, albeit humble. Embrace humbleness. Being humble is a Canadian value and we’ve all forgotten it. Tune out the noise of the media and the non-stop b.s. hype. Don’t fall for the trap of these low interest rates, it’s mere cheese in a mousetrap.
And Garth, preach it brother!

The issue is not some high-profile buys financed offshore. It is the greed and delusion of everyone around you, and the institutions which encourage. — Garth

#51 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 11:35 pm

#33 ANONYMOUS

The Bank of Canada is the only public central bank of the G20 nations yet it is controlled by the BIS and FSB, which Carney is now chairman of (FSB). Understand that lifting rates means the BoC would have to take a loss on its bond holdings, and as of today that total value just surpassed $65 billion. http://i42.tinypic.com/16l01g1.png

Not sure why you keep believing they’ll lift rates Garth when all it will do is appreciate the CDN and hurt exports and business credit. They are likely to adopt NGDP targeting (capital controls) as a measure to suppress home appreciation rather then lifting rates and taking down the whole economy.

Those are Government of Canada bonds, not Bank of Canada securities. The BoC is not controlled by the BIS or FSB. You are OTL. — Garth

#52 Zeno Fobe on 03.09.12 at 11:36 pm

Toronto/Vancouver RE = HAM Money Laundering

This is a an even better gig than the gangs taking their drug $$ to Vegas to clean it up. No vig to the house because you are the house! And if you make even more it’s tax free!

Seriously, these guys (and gals) would gladly pay a 25% fee to clean up the cash, so RE is a no-brainer, even if it drops.

Where is the CBC when you REALLY need them?

#53 Mr Buyer on 03.09.12 at 11:36 pm

An outlier or harbinger, take your pick. Either way the march down has begun. BUYER BEWARE. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED.

#54 Julius on 03.09.12 at 11:40 pm

This guy is dope. Knows what he’s talking about, good track record.

http://sacola.squarespace.com/past-issues/

#55 Tim on 03.09.12 at 11:44 pm

RE #22
It all looks good until you lose your job in the States- if you can get one. If you need an operation and you don’t have good coverage, you can become poor fast. A third of the bankruptcies in the US are due to health problems. We won’t even talk about the guns and lack of social programs and the most unequal society in the developed world

It’s tough to be so superior and remain humble, no? — Garth

#56 Terra No-more on 03.09.12 at 11:47 pm

Guess would be an inheritance lacking the departed supervision.

#57 DonDWest on 03.09.12 at 11:47 pm

Just read Canada’s recent job forecast compared to the United States – ouch. So much for Harper’s trickle down economics, corporate tax cuts creates jobs approach. Next?

Now we’re selling pre-war bungs for 1.1 million? Sorry, but the housing bubble in the United States never hit near such numbers. There’s something else going on other than government run corporate welfare (CMHC) and easy credit.

I know it’s politically incorrect to state so, but I suspect there’s a lot of dirty money coming into Canada through criminal organizations throughout the world who are abusing our lax immigration policies. This is perhaps the “X-Factor” that Canada has that the United States didn’t. If the United States had a “green card for crooks who bought a home” I’m sure their bubble would continue.

#58 Tim on 03.09.12 at 11:48 pm

Re#36
This will never happen with a Prime Minister that has done nothing for this country and who’s sole effort has been to remain in power and to protect himself at the expense of the rest of Canadians.

#59 vanlocal on 03.09.12 at 11:50 pm

#27-Joe Joe Bee
Funny I just had a conversation with a co-worker about this same topic and came to the exact same conclusion. Seattle and to add Portland have way more going for them than Vancouver. They have a soul….a vibe…sense of community which you can feel. Vancouver although now much more diverse lost this decades ago…

#60 Peterfromcalgary on 03.09.12 at 11:58 pm

Another sign that houses are overpriced. New Geography writes an article on how to bring prices down so people can afford housing.

http://www.newgeography.com/content/002713-time-real-solutions-vancouvers-housing-affordability-crisis

#61 Van guy on 03.10.12 at 12:02 am

#54 Julius on 03.09.12 at 11:40 pm
This guy is dope. Knows what he’s talking about, good track record.

http://sacola.squarespace.com/past-issues/
______________________________________

Interesting read. What does Mr T think of this eh?

#62 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 12:04 am

#37 };-) aka DA

“Now quit with the irreverent nit-picking will you?”

You mean “irrelevant”.

Your lack of command of the English language continues to undermine your smug superiority.

There, I’ve given you something to lay into.

#63 Canadian Watchdog on 03.10.12 at 12:05 am

Those are Government of Canada bonds, not Bank of Canada securities. The BoC is not controlled by the BIS or FSB. You are OTL. — Garth

Correct. Which should be sold in bond auctions to international bidders instead of the Bank of Canada buying them all to keep yields down. Take a good look at what’s going on. http://i44.tinypic.com/1glxue.png Money is fleeing Canada [again] en masse.

All Carney can do it keep rates down and print. There is no other solution.

#64 nonplused on 03.10.12 at 12:10 am

Face Book Inc. = FBI. They may not have thought it up but the enforcement agencies love it. So if you have a picture of your 3 year old hugging a giant bottle of whiskey on there, expect a visit from child services later. I even had a police detective explain to me how they do it. But don’t worry, they don’t actually check in on you unless they have an interest in you. Yet. But it’s amazing how easy it is.

I still think these big bidders are laundering money. So what if they pay 20 or 30% over bid? The cash is worth nothing to them back home. And in BC I am sure it’s pot money.

#65 DonDWest on 03.10.12 at 12:17 am

And in the pleasure of being politically incorrect:

Obviously any person who is stupid enough to pay 1.1 million in cash for an old bungalow has never truly earned 1.1 million in cash – the money was stolen.

#66 dd on 03.10.12 at 12:28 am

How can central bankers allow a debt orgy to continue?
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
Again, low rates have nothing to do with the working class. In the US and Euro is all about saving the banks. Why else would rates be rock bottom for 4+ years!

To encourage credit and stimulate private consumption. Of course. — Garth

#67 dd on 03.10.12 at 12:39 am

Why are interest rates low? Because the banks need help. There are some $700 Trillion (with a T) of these contracts floating around the world and most will never proform. Learn a little bit about what they are … soon it will be in the news daily.

http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy1111.htm

#68 Tom on 03.10.12 at 12:40 am

OMG! RE is going to implode and as you say, it will not end well. That student who paid 499k over the asking price is just over the top stupid.

Thanks for all your advice Garth. I’ve followed your insights into finance since your days with the “little paper that grew”. Found this pathetic blog a short while ago and we listed our rental condo here in Peterborough last weekend. 9 showings in less than a week… so far. Hopefully it sells ASAP and we get out before the implosion in Ontario.

Also, we refinanced the last remaining balance of our home mortgage with RBC this morning and locked in for 7 years at 3.89%. Set up the weekly accelerated to pay it off by then. Life is good when you listen to smart people like you. Thanks a bunch, Garth.

Keep the faith. They’ll eventually convert when they see the tunnel at the end of the light.

#69 Tom on 03.10.12 at 12:42 am

PS. the condo in Peterborough is 1 bedroom, 790 sq ft Listed for $199,000

#70 Stevenson on 03.10.12 at 12:45 am

Student was from China buying with cash. What does interest rates have to do with people like these? They never thought of the term underwater because they don’t ever need to worry about that. Do you really think if rates go up and MAYBE(a big maybe) people will start throwing their properties on the market? Where will they live? It was your point that they would be stuck in debt with the mortgage. It is not something they can walk away from and also not unless they lose their jobs. Chill out and enjoy the ride up. You screwed most people out of it already.

#71 dd on 03.10.12 at 12:46 am

How can central bankers allow a debt orgy to continue?

To encourage credit and stimulate private consumption. Of course. — Garth
……………………………………………………………………………
Oh so true. Also to keep the asset bubble alive. When the assets start to deflate the balance sheets don’t look so good. Especially when the Euro banks are leveraged some 20 to 1.

#72 The Thing in the Basement on 03.10.12 at 12:47 am

American @32 – thanks for comfirming. Think Garth’s
numbers are for the city propers. The expensive parts of
the Seattle metro are not in town. But in Vancouver they
are. I will take your word that US cities follow this trend.
Van does not look to have this hollowing out. Could be
the effect of “Vancouverism” the deliberate planning
process. Found this link as well.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/WA-Seattle-home-value/r_16037/

#73 Do the three step on 03.10.12 at 12:52 am

How to make money in Vancouver

1 buy house in vancouver
2 ????????????????
3 PROFIT

#74 45north on 03.10.12 at 1:09 am

a university student from China offered $1.1 million for a dinky Toronto house listed at $759,000 this week,

say you and your friends owned a dozen properties and wanted to sell, what about giving your daughter $1.1 million to “buy” one? Yeah there are fees to pay but the transaction establishes a new comparable price. Suppose you only sold 6 at $800,000, that’s like $5 million.

#75 DonDWest on 03.10.12 at 1:09 am

The Chinese housing bubble – coming soon to Vancouver:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-25/markets/30440004_1_yuan-housing-bubble-home-prices

#76 HDJ on 03.10.12 at 1:22 am

“If Vancouver prices were to drop by almost 19% next year, there’d be thousands of underwater condo owners and an uncontrollable explosion in listings, taking prices much lower in the months following. And it would not stop in the Lower Mainland. And it’s probably coming.” Garth

Glad to see your predictions are becoming a little more nuanced – “And it’s probably coming.” Wise move. Cheers.

#77 Michael Dimatteo on 03.10.12 at 1:31 am

What’s it going to take for this bubble to pop in the GTA? They say that the low inventory on the supply side is causing the increase, but isn’t there an excess of condo’s being built?

#78 JB on 03.10.12 at 1:31 am

Possible the banks know the 25 year max mortgage will be announced soon and they’re dancing until the music stops?

#79 nubian goat on 03.10.12 at 1:33 am

when re crashes does property tax come down in the future please explain garth TANKS bah bah

#80 Yves on 03.10.12 at 1:33 am

Man, this is just nuts. I bought my all brick bungalow here in the suburbs of montreal for 155K$ back in 2004 and it’s almost payed off. Some real estate agent said without even waking in I could get 300K$ for it. Fine, that’s just great … but where they hell would I live if I sold it?

When I went to the bank to buy the house at the time, they told me I could afford a 400K$ house if I wanted to back then. I remembered two rules that I always live by: live under my means and remember the past. My parents had a bungalow in the 80s when interest rates were in the double digits … so I bought way under what I could afford.

What happened to common sense? Don’t anybody remember when rates were close to 20% at some point?

Geez.

#81 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.10.12 at 1:37 am


The forthcoming abs crunch, which is the sound of homeowners dancing in the NutsCrackered SweetBalls is vaguely reminiscent of Jethro Tull’s Locomotive Breath, except the train wreck is still moving like a giant locust, and along with #31 Fabrega — “This buble has a loooooong way to go”, it is easy to understand why the train has ploughed thru the US, winding its way across the pond via gay Paree, sultry Greece, The Fourth Reich and numerous other pieces de resistance. No, it’s not finished by a long shot.

“. . . as the US added hundreds of thousands.” — My understanding it was 230K or thereabouts. That’s a start, but there are other factors to consider — Rogoff’s report.
*
#200 bluethunder on 03.09.12 at 7:58 pm — If the SAF sets off the Cascades, it will be a double whammy for the west coast. Turbulent times are a’changin!

#52 Zeno Fobe — “Toronto/Vancouver RE = HAM Money Laundering”
— and —
#57 DonDWest — “. . . but I suspect there’s a lot of dirty money coming into Canada through criminal organizations throughout the world who are abusing our lax immigration policies.”

Bingo! The feds. can’t take our money anymore, ‘coz we ain’t got none, so they must resort to other methods and paper over the cracks they have made.
*
Central banks expanding Would the 236 resignations (next link) have anything to do with this? Thursday, it was 156 resignations. Today, it’s 236; Johnny Paycheck Nice one! ‘Tho mostly undeserved; Save Greece, expose a few others; Defy Why do billionaires get richer? By ignoring the stuff happening here; Cdn. finance Links in, and More Cdn. finance “Robert Shiller reports on provocative new research from Finland that concludes that people with a high I.Q. score were more likely to also invest intelligently by diversifying their portfolios, investing heavily in stocks and favouring small-cap and value stocks.” Links in; Rent vs. Mtge. Renting is better — sez so right here; Stocks are still under valued, apparently.
*
3:32 clip Cancer — The forbidden cures; China’s new J-20 dragon fighter jet appears to be slightly better than the F-22 Raptor; Links in Solar flares, HAARP of did the Laughs win the Stanley Cup? Jaws strikes back, but it may need to floss a little better; Mesdames et Messieurs Voici et maintenant, 50 years and 50 pix of Les Rolling Stones; Wash Your Hands There are similar TV ads here telling us to wash our hands. Do TPTB think we’re really that daft? 2,600 foot tall dust devil on Mars; Underwater Map Off the coast of Africa, but there are better things to be interested in; Libya Well screwed up, moreso than NAmerica; Bahrain The juggernaut of the west continues, until they run out of countries to kick around around.

#82 Jon B on 03.10.12 at 1:42 am

So here’s what I want to know; when she blows, who will the indebted blame for their poor decisions? The debt-slaves-for-life masses will surely seek out a target to lay blame. Taking responsibility for one’s own actions is so uncool. Will it be the big greedy banks? How about the Feds? Will the rationale relate to being “duped”? Will there be lawsuits that suggest these institutions somehow tricked their clients into borrowing sums of money that they knew could never be maintained at higher rates? Once we get to that stage of the game, this blog will get real interesting.

#83 static on 03.10.12 at 1:56 am

Average prices have remained flat or increased slightly. But, ones money buys much more today than it did 3 years ago. This is price deflation – under cover.

#84 Ogopogo on 03.10.12 at 2:08 am

So today a colleague at work came into my office and we started chatting about Kelowna real estate (is there any other topic here, really?). He looked aghast when I told him I rent. Curiously, he asked “How much do you pay, if you don’t mind my asking?” As soon as I told him he looked even more shocked, almost offended. My rent, as it happens is just about average for a relatively “luxurious” condo where 95% of the units are owner-occupied.

I went on to tell him my usual spiel about how much cheaper it is to rent my unit (which, as I’ve bragged here many a time, is the nicest in the whole building) than to buy it. My colleague looked sceptical the whole time. I could tell that he thinks me a fool for renting and no amount of math or rational argument will win him over.

This is the RE cult in Canada, folks. Bow down to the golden calf of Re/Max & co. or suffer social ostracism. Pffffff….

#85 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 2:08 am

#62John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 12:04 am
#37 };-) aka DA

“Now quit with the irreverent nit-picking will you?”

You mean “irrelevant”.

Your lack of command of the English language continues to undermine your smug superiority.

There, I’ve given you something to lay into.

No ***DELETED*** I meant “irreverent”, as in critical of what is generally accepted or respected. The commonly held opinion of those on this blog is hardly representative of the general opinion of the populace.

I meant what I said and I said what I meant ***DELETED***.

#86 wollyone on 03.10.12 at 2:09 am

77th……………………

#87 VanLarry on 03.10.12 at 2:28 am

Meanwhile in the states:
https://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/03/09/148218539/this-14-year-old-girl-just-bought-a-house-in-florida

I think they’ve pretty much hit bottom.

#88 John on 03.10.12 at 3:20 am

Local governments do not set immigration policy. But they do allow in xenophobic idiots. — Garth

Garth, that was rather harsh, the guy only commented that imigration is a problem, nothing that warranted being called an xenophobic idiot, waay overreaction on your part dude

#89 Don on 03.10.12 at 3:51 am

Finally someone actually comes out and says the truth, as much of that Chinese cash is stolen money, untaxed, and unfair to working Canadians.

# 16 Hits the nail on the head.

All governments are corrupt, Canada too, none of these assholes care, they are in the game of politics to reap golden pensions, make business contacts to reap inside stock strategies, sit on boards, run their own businesses while supposely serving the community, is horse shit, plain and simple. The world is awash in debt, and so much attention paid to Greece? Who gives a shit, the USA is the mother of all debt, corruption, and when the world wakes up and realizes the USA is bankrupt, banks are all insolvent, gold doesnt matter, all the gold in the world ever mined, produced, sold doesnt even come close to the amount of paper in circulation, gold has little to kniw instrinic value, sorry folks there is really nowhere oto hide, current stock markets are priced on future earnings, China is going to fall hard, Europe and the USA are broke, there is nowhere to hide.

#90 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 03.10.12 at 4:09 am

Sugar coated religion makes you fat and stupid.
True story.

#91 villain? on 03.10.12 at 5:12 am

Downturn?
What downturn?
There are probably more Chinese University Students like where this one came from.
And paying cash.
I was just thinking: “ where are the rest of Canadians going to live”?

I mean, when Chinese University students with that kind of cash can outbid ( crazy outbid) on R.E. …
…why is it that most Uni Students in Canada can hardly come up with the tuition, not even to mention renting a room.

What doesn’t add up here?

#92 I'll do anything for a listing - please on 03.10.12 at 5:18 am

For those who don’t know Vancouver news:
#16 Truth Hammer is referring to Vietnamese and East Indian drug dealers, and Real Housewives of Vancouver pilot coming up.

http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1662575

Yes, these two communities if you were to visit here have way way too much money for their level of sophistication – period!
How many 40 year old women in North Vancouver wear Juicy sweats & Louis Vatton bags while shopping at Real Canadian Superstore? See what I mean?
These ethnicities that Truth Hammer mentions also, fill up their Luxury SUV’s ( that run bald summer tires on their unmaintained, brake dust covered 20″ wheels on their BMW x5’s in the winter cause they are one genome branch above cave people) with Superstore gas to get $.04 back per litre.

You gotta see it here. No Place Like This on Earth.

Blame multiculturalism, blame immigration, what have you, but their Cash Only culture cannot be taxed using our Western society methods. Sorry Truth Hammer, but they’ll likely lie on those forms you are requiring them to fill out.

The Truth hurts.

PS – While on a Netflix.ca free trial, you can watch all the financial documentaries you want. for FREE. Then you can related to Smoking man and the gold bugs on this blog.

#93 Monster Cookie on 03.10.12 at 6:04 am

#90 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 03.10.12 at 4:09 am

Sugar coated religion makes you fat and stupid.
True story.
—-
That’s so true.

#94 TRT on 03.10.12 at 6:59 am

Myth Myth Myth Myth……

There are no Temporary Foreign Students purchasing million dollar homes.

There are no temporary foreign workers purchasing $600,000 homes.

They have no money. It’s a myth! ;)

While we’re at it, there is no HAM. 99.99% of immigrants are or poor!!

Wait, this is a unique isolated event. Hahahaha…don’t know what to say besides laugh….

#95 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.10.12 at 7:17 am

Here’s the big question we should all be asking:

What degree is this student enrolled in?

(and – why don’t we charge more for it?)

#96 big T on 03.10.12 at 7:22 am

big thanks to truth hammer for a realistic asessment
of whats really happening, this is much bigger than
real estate…

#97 Steven Rowlandson on 03.10.12 at 8:10 am

Put it together. This is not hard. How can central bankers allow a debt orgy to continue, knowing the economy’s swampy and housing’s a bomb? How can people believe their excess is normal? How’s real estate safer in 2012 than Nortel in 2000? How can it possibly end well?

Answer: Too many people and institutions have gone cuckoo! If and when they come to their senses it will end very badly.

#98 Lupin on 03.10.12 at 8:11 am

I was unable to find a Seattle house price average for the whole city but this link gives the average house price by neighborhood.

http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/Washington/Seattle-heat_map/

#99 Gypsy Kid on 03.10.12 at 8:15 am

ummm…”Zeno Fobes” and others, it’s OUR government that’s allowing all these “foreigners” into our country to launder their ill-begotten money and to wreak havoc (if you think they are solely to blame for this damned bubble) with our real estate.

And stop and think, do you not think Canadians go abroad and make trouble as well? YOur narrow minded views of the world is laughable and shameful. Travel a little to Asia and Africa and see how NOrth Americans behave…not all, but the loud and arrogant ones really taint the whole continent they come from.

And remember, before you blame others for not “owning” a house, ownership is a previlige not everyone can afford, Canadian born or foreigner. (I think Garth said this…)

#100 Andrew toronto on 03.10.12 at 8:30 am

Garth that bungalow that sold in Willowdale for over 40percent over asking.. One realtor was saying that the neigbourhood there had homes that sell for over 2million. So this realtor who was being interveiwed said the logic was by buying it for 1.2M tear it down and builds a huge homes for 600,000-700,000.. when completed would be worth 2M. What are you thoughts on this,, was this house lowered to cause a bidding war is this hype.

#101 House on 03.10.12 at 8:47 am

If you read what Mark said it was that he would rates, if Jim and The Canadian Council of Chief Executives would let him. And the USA still has to devalue its dollar to pay off its debt, which would raise the Canuck.

#102 Incubus on 03.10.12 at 8:58 am

Same thing will happen in Canada!

“Baby boomers will be selling their homes, but will their children want to buy them? ”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/baby-boomers-will-be-selling-their-homes-but-will-their-children-want-to-buy-them/2012/03/07/gIQAQ05ywR_blog.html?wprss=3Dlinkset

#103 jerry on 03.10.12 at 8:58 am

With Canada slowing down I can’t see interest rates going up any time soon. Not sure if Europe and Greece will walk out in an orderly fashion yet. Nervous that Barnacke will throw out the QE3 card by mid summer. Oh well…still renting….collecting interest on investments…still have the freedom to throw a dart at any place on the map that I want to eventually buy/live. Love this blog!!!

#104 I'm stupid on 03.10.12 at 8:59 am

Hi Garth

Is my assumption regarding FB correct?

FB will start acquiring other .coms to increase profits. Social media’s business model is not profitable. To combat this they are in a race against time. They need to buy other companies that do make money before the bottom falls out. Its like buying an etf that you pay way too much for in the hopes the people who run it are better than Warren Buffet at Investing money.

#105 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.10.12 at 9:15 am

Speaking of Seattle real estate:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/07/realestate/commercial/amazon-leads-an-office-upswing-in-seattle.html?ref=technology

Imagine that – people making money in real estate because of businesses (like Amazon.com) that are growing and need space.

Sounds just a tad more sustainable than buying dumps in Vancouver to get money out of China before the sh$t hits the fan, or sending your kid to buy a $1.1M bungalow in Toronto for no apparent reason.

#106 Smoking Man on 03.10.12 at 9:16 am

On interest rates. Does not matter what Carney said

Contrary to popular belief that rates go up with inflation, we have had a tone of inflation over the last few years.

Central Banks don’t move when prices go up. They don’t care.

Rates only go up when the labour pool shrinks, and pressure builds for pay increases. That’s what they consider inflation.

So with a soft job market. Rates Up…. NOT A CHANCE.

The BOC does not see that tax farm slaves as people, they are just the help.

#107 Alister on 03.10.12 at 9:20 am

From what I’ve been reading on this site, it’s apparent that the only fools left in Canada are in Toronto and vicinity.

Congratulations to those greater fools – you are a species with worldly distinction.

By the way – I just got back from 2 weeks in Phoenix. The weather was beautiful, dry, sunny, no wind, no humidity. Rather than blow $1m of cash in TO or Van, I would rent in Phoenix in winter and rent in summer in Canada.

Also, it’s beautiful in Spain most of the year and a cheap place to rent.

#108 Cow Man on 03.10.12 at 9:28 am

Amigos: What should be of even greater concern to Canadians than the $1 Million bungalow, is what is reported in the Ontario Farmer this week. The article states that in 2011 Chinese interest purchased over 48,000 acres of productive farmland, mostly in Ontario. Carleton Place in the Ottawa Valley is the preferred location. The Chinese are paying well in excess of the going market rate pricing Canadian farmers out of the market. Just keep shopping at Walmart folks.

#109 Alister on 03.10.12 at 9:28 am

Will our national security investigators see if this student is money laundering, or drug connections?

#110 Smoking Man on 03.10.12 at 9:33 am

Central Banks exist to serve money, wealth, and maintain the hierarchy and stat quo. Been to a few of Carney’s functions speeches where he actively tells people like me to invest in emerging markets. Google some of his speeches, not making up this stuff.

Moral of the story, if you are not actively buying and selling and profiting, your just the help, and your pay check is just the crumbs of the transaction. Lie to yourself all you want. Make a poster of your great occupation and mount it over your fire place. If your lucky it will catch fire, and get you to re think.

If you’re not a hunter, you’re the prey

#111 U-The Man on 03.10.12 at 9:51 am

#16 truth hammer…. what you say is reality .
All the Harperites want is to win elections. They dont care if Canadians who actually work for a living and have paid by their hard work and loyalty to Canada to build this Country to what it is today, are priced out of housing market. Surely we must realize that $1 million is a small price for rich foreigners to pay to receive all the future benifits of our country. This university student can now over time sponsor his entire family to immigrate here and enjoy our social benefits for cheap.
The cons only care about short term benefits of these economic immigrants but ignore the long term pain of the un-employed youth of this country. The cons are destroying this country with their easy money and immigration policies.

#112 Jackie Chan on 03.10.12 at 9:52 am

Does anyone remember what Bruce Lee did to Chuck Norris? That’s what happening now in bidding wars over real estate! But YOU can change that! (don’t stop me Garth, “sexy pants” Turner. I’m on a roll!) What you need to do is to start out bidding these so-called HAM’s! That’s right! If you see a home you want, pay well over asking. Offer the seller double what the house is worth! You’ll show those Asian men and your buddies that you play poker with who’s the boss. And I don’t mean Tony Danza. Now go out and see some open houses and on Monday, make an offer and show everyone who’s got the biggest, shiniest truck nuts!

You’re welcome, ladies.

#113 eddy on 03.10.12 at 10:02 am

our government eliminated our jobs- they went to china, now chinese can transfer wealth to the next generation, this is normal part of globalization

#114 Van guy on 03.10.12 at 10:29 am

#41 JW on 03.09.12 at 11:05 pm
—————————————————-

Where did she find a character home in Richmond? Your sister just screwed her listing. It’s stale now and even BPOE can’t help her pump it anymore. When there’s signs to get the f$&k out, you get the fu&k out. Greed kills. Good luck.

#115 cto on 03.10.12 at 10:30 am

#16 truth hammer

I hear your words and tend to agree with them. I know a number of Canadians of Chinese decent (some 6th generation), dam GOOD people and REAL Canadians! I believe the majority to be this way,

however it is extreemly likely in countries that have gone through great transformation in the last decade that mass corruption is very real!

Canada is a perfect magnet for the dirty money they extort from their fellow countrymen. It could be lawful, such as paying their works crumbs from the table to manufacture the mass products they sell or out right brutle extortion!

#116 NoName on 03.10.12 at 10:31 am

It was a she. And, no. —Garth

Good for her, u can se her and this deal being mentioned in books in future. Girl who burst housing bubble in Canada…
Plus yesterday was national PANIC day.
Timing is everything… probably she have more money stashed for all short sales that are about to come…

#117 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 03.10.12 at 10:34 am

@ #16 Truth Hammer
Your statement about Revenue Canada SCREAMS for action. ” Follow the Money” has been my mantra for years to the govt beaurocrats who think nothing of seizing some poor working schmoe’s 1k bank account and turning a blind eye to the drug dealing thugs driving around in their “uncles/fathers/brothers” hummer/harley/porsche. Follow the money!

Oh and your statement …Look at the fanfare that met the HouseBimbo’s of VanDumpo candidate who was advertised as having ‘yachts and jets’ at her disposal when it came out that her husband ( a certain member of a certain ethnic drug gang) had poured millions into his lavish lifestyle….after allegedly murdering his rivals in a well known history of violence contray to the laws of the land…….or is it all about votes in certain constituencies and they druggies in those communities figured out that they can operate with impunity? The only masters degree this guy had was in thuggery….and we think it’s OK now?”

Is bang on !

#118 Sarpar on 03.10.12 at 10:37 am

Any predictions on the real estate in Ontario? “soft landing” as they were saying
Patiently waiting to buy!

#119 Van guy on 03.10.12 at 10:41 am

Stevenson,

Fly over to Van and see what’s happening over here. You sound exactly like BPOE. Are you two related?

#120 Spiltbongwater on 03.10.12 at 10:45 am

Garth that bungalow that sold in Willowdale for over 40percent over asking.. One realtor was saying that the neigbourhood there had homes that sell for over 2million. So this realtor who was being interveiwed said the logic was by buying it for 1.2M tear it down and builds a huge homes for 600,000-700,000.. when completed would be worth 2M. What are you thoughts on this,, was this house lowered to cause a bidding war is this hype.
Andrew toronto on 03.10.12 at 8:30 am

So a person puts in a total investment of 1.8 – 1.9 mil and sells for 2 mil? I would not think the risk is worth the reward. Are profit margins on new builds really that small.

#121 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.10.12 at 10:48 am

#91 villain? on 03.10.12 at 5:12 am
“I mean, when Chinese University students with that kind of cash can outbid ( crazy outbid) on R.E. …
…why is it that most Uni Students in Canada can hardly come up with the tuition, not even to mention renting a room.
What doesn’t add up here?”
……….
Some people have money and some people don’t.
And, because they have money, it doesn’t mean that it is illegal or fraudulent. Duh…
Too many doomers and conspirational posters here this weekend. Loosers? Jealous?

#122 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 10:54 am

You can’t even compare Vancouver proper with Seattle proper – two different cities. Compare Medina to West Vancouver or the Shaughnessy area of Vancouver where the average list price of homes currently is $4,224,287 for an average home built in 1967.

Bill Gates neighbourhood home values average just $1,009,785. Oh but wait… I thought Seattle homes averaged just $320,000.

http://search.suttonwestcoast.com/BC/Vancouver/Shaughnessy/real-estate-market

http://www.city-data.com/city/Medina-Washington.html

#123 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.10.12 at 10:56 am

Scotiabank will need to change its slogan to “You’re richer than you think, but only if you sell your house”:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/09/impoverished-millionaire-needs-to-face-the-music/

#124 Sticky on 03.10.12 at 10:57 am

even $759,000 sounds crazy to me for this modest house. Is this one of those “priced at lot value” gimmicks where this will be torn down to build a more modern house?

#125 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:10 am

Do you honestly think that an average Shaughnessy homeowner gives a rats ass if their home value drops from that average of $4,224,287 to $3,000,000? Money to them is not like it is to you.

BTW Steve Jobs home was modest compared to that of Bill Gates. Steve’s last home was valued at just $8.45mil compared to Bill’s $147.5mil. Of course Bill’s net worth is reported to be about $56billion while Steve’s was last but a meager $7billion.

WAIT A MINUTE!!! That financially wreckless, house horny Steve spent proportionately more of his money on a home than did his industry rival Bill. Oh the horror…

#126 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:19 am

CORRECTION

Bill Gates spent proportionately more of his net worth on his home than Steve Jobs. With numbers that large who can do that math without headiness getting in the way.

Bill’s net worth at $56billion is 8 times that which Steve’s was at $7billion. Gates house at $147.5mil is 17.45 time higher than Steves was at $8.45mil. So I stand correct it is Bill Gates who is the financially wreckless, house horny one of the two.

Whew, my admiration for Steve is reinstated.

Hey cut me some slack I told you in earlier posts I’m well aware I’m not always right.

#127 torontorocks on 03.10.12 at 11:24 am

I’m still missing the connection. forget the above example if its paid with laundered cash. houses are up 50% from 2004 values. how do they drop 15% and slide? b/c I can’t get financing for an $1.1MM house?

because I’m waiting for 5 year mortgages to roll off and refi at higher rates? they are being refi’d at a lower principal amount.

because I suddenly need to sell my house at a discount?

I don’t see the correlation and I’m trying to understand. I see a higher ‘floor’ for house prices, that is all.

They don’t need to sell at the price they don’t want – just delist.

#128 BuyingaHomeinCanada.ca on 03.10.12 at 11:25 am

Did that Chinese student buy directly from the listing agent or was she accompanied by the member of another firm? Because if another firm was involved the paperwork probably states that this second firm was acting as the buyer’s agent on this transaction. And that its job was to protect the buyer’s best interests. I hope whoever was on the buyer’s side of that deal was smart enough to get a disclaimer signed to confirm that this was being done against her buyer agent’s advice? That Chinese student could sue the pants off that real estate company for letting this happen not if but rather when the market plummets. A buyer with access to that kind of money is extremely dangerous. That fat commission cheque is in my opinion very likely to come back to haunt whoever is going to cash it. Any lawyer wishing to comment on this?

#129 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:43 am

Garth must be very angry with me.

Hey man, we could all use a little critique now and then. You need not post those comments as I am sure their true intended audience heard them loud and clear.

Cheers };-)

#130 Steven Rowlandson on 03.10.12 at 11:45 am

Re:#102

The real question is how can the children of the boomers buy houses at all? Most of them if they have jobs are lucky to make one or two times minimum wage and that is insignificant next to the wage implied by the house price divided by equal to or less than 6000 man hours worth of pay. Debts should be a reasonable expense and not something that prevents some one from living and having a family.

#131 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:45 am

Public Domain

Your Blog

};-)

#132 GregW, Oakville on 03.10.12 at 11:47 am

Hi All, (&H)
Why don’t we all just turn our clocks forward one half-hour for one last time? That way we can stop,
“They’ve done research to find that the two days after daylight savings time, there’s a big spike in the number of car accidents,”.
And the milking cows will be happier too.

Maybe this idea makes too much common cents for TPTB??

There’s no time to set this up before Sunday, but what about 6-months from now when we turn them back? Please feel free to claim this idea as your own and run with it.

#133 DM in C on 03.10.12 at 11:56 am

It’s reckless, DA, not WRECKLESS.

Tedious.

#134 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:59 am

I still respect you Garth. };-)

I know what you are doing. We all have our hidden agendas to one degree or another. No one is so altruistic a selfless savior of their fellow man as we might like them to be. The world is full of contradictions and hypocrisy. I mean look at you who bemoans the potential perils of a financial investment in a home yet you reportedly purchased probably the single worst vehicle investment known to mankind – a Hummer of all things. The hypocrisy there is unending my friend. Hey I do it too… but my BMW has held it’s value better than most };-).

It’s cool no offence intended and no offence taken from your censorship of my submitted posts. Public domain, your blog.

Seriously though, wouldn’t this be a boring place without my contentious input?

I eliminated three of your last eight posts because they are redundant and repetitive. Get over yourself. – Garth

#135 Abitibi Doug on 03.10.12 at 12:08 pm

Something’s wrong with this picture. The banks are offering those low interest specials (3%) again, but also getting out of high risk mortgages. It reminds me of the joke of where a table is stuck in a door frame with a bank executive on each side. One says: it’s hard work pushing this table into the conference room. The other executive says: push it in? I’m trying to push it out! That’s where we’re at now, they can’t decide whether to keep the Ponzi scheme going or terminate it.

#136 The American on 03.10.12 at 12:33 pm

At #122: DA, your information is inaccurate. Medina, Bill Gate’s neighborhood, has an average list price of $2.67MM – not a little over $1MM as you indicated. Bill’s home, just for funzies, has a current assessed market value of $147,500,000. However, Medina is not considered the “West Vancouver” equivilant. The West Van equiviilant would be something along the lines of Hunts Point and Yarrow Point, just North of Medina.

Average list price in Hunts Point is $4.38MM, and the median sales price in Hunts Point is currently $7.73MM.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Medina-Washington/

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Hunts_Point-Washington/

Mercer Island, another ritzy area, has an average list price currently a little over $2MM. This is home to Paul Allen, where his home is estimated to have a market value of around $150,000,000, although it is about 10,000 square feet smaller than Billy’s cabin.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Mercer_Island-Washington/

Other areas of Seattle proper include places like Laurelhurst (also similar to West Van), with a current average list price of $2.18MM

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Laurelhurst-Seattle/6838/

You could go on and on, annexing out Washington Park, Yarrow Point, Broadmoore, Madison Park, The Highlands, and so on, but what’s the point? The point is simply that prices in Vancouver are unsustainable as a collective whole.

Yes, list price examples I provided are different from average neighborhood home values and sales prices, but you were comparing list prices in your example at #122 in West Van to average neighborhood home values in Medina. That’s a very different scenario.

#137 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 12:35 pm

“I eliminated three of your last eight posts because they are redundant and repetitive. Get over yourself.” – Garth

Ah but they that you eliminated were at the heart of the matter which motivated me to be so redundant. With them gone those that remain have little to no meaning or merit.

It was not so random a censorship as you purport it to be.

#138 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 12:54 pm

I will continue to critique your editorials and the pups and poodles posts as long as I am permitted to just as you and they will mine – that is fair.

What is not fair is when one is proven to have erred, intentionally or not, and yet they do not make amends to they who rely so faithfully on that persons good judgment. Dangerously close to negligent misrepresentation don’t you think?

#139 Van guy on 03.10.12 at 1:00 pm

#134 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:59 am

How does a busy realtor like you have so much time on your hand to post more than anyone else here. And why would you spend the time here when you already know where the market is headed. You are here to disturb and insult Garth and other posters. What you say here is irrelevant because people here dOnt care about your opinion. It’s funny how people like you hide behind their computer and constantly harass others just to get a little kick to relieve your boredom. You’re like my kid that constantly nags on me when he wants candy. You’re redundant like a broken record. It’s time for you to find a new place to spread you’re silly little immature comments.

};[email protected]

#140 Ret on 03.10.12 at 1:04 pm

Chinese with suitcases of money are arriving daily. Of all the countries in the world, they pick Canada as the #1 place to buy RE. It is a great story. Suck it up and pass it on.

Probably 99% BS but it should pop prices another 3-5% in TO. before it all starts to unravel.

Anyone with a home in Willowdale who has not got their property listed is missing out on a once in a generation opportunity. Sell and buy the same pile of bricks in Oakville for $550,000 or Burlington for $450,000. Cha-ching.

#141 *Exasperated sigh* on 03.10.12 at 1:10 pm

};-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:59 am “Seriously though, wouldn’t this be a boring place without my contentious input?”

};-) aka DA post times,
10:53 pm
2:08am
10:54am
11:10am
11:19am
11:43am
11:45am
11:59am

Nothing else to do today?

#142 From Mississauga with Love on 03.10.12 at 1:14 pm

Has the debt to income ratio for Q4 2011 been released yet? I haven’t come across it yet (or must have missed it). At the end of Q3 it was 153%. what is it at the end of Q4? It should have been released by now as it is typically released 1 1/2 months into the following quarter (i.e. should have been released middle of Feb.).

#143 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 1:17 pm

#85 };-) aka DA

Irreverence means lack of respect, not criticism.

Being a narcissist, you would of course confuse one with the other.

#144 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 1:18 pm

133 DM in C on 03.10.12 at 11:56 am
It’s reckless, DA, not WRECKLESS.

Tedious.

Were it not for my too infrequent and hurried use of spell check you would be appalled at my poor command of the English language. Trust I am working on it and do appreciate the regular reprimands of the spelling and grammar police. Really, I do.

#136 The American on 03.10.12 at 12:33 pm

Judging from your handle I am sure you should know better than I. I did but a quick bit of research. More to the point it really is out of my area but not so much as it would be someone’s from the rust belt of Canada. I think we would both agree comparing an “average” Vancouver house of $1.1million to a “median” Seattle home of $320,000 without more definition is a stretch on any account.

Wow Garth, kudos to you for permitting that last post of mine! Like I said I still and will continue to respect you Buddy. };-)

#145 Rainclouds on 03.10.12 at 1:18 pm

Kudos to “the American” for his provided Seattle data, he she may be interested to know Trulia and Zillow dont exist in Canada and we have the archaic MLS.CA which is painfully absent most of the important data american house hunters would take for granted. because it is controlled by Of course……Cdn Real Estate Brokers. Maybe by the time the the implosion hits we will have access to the same info Americans take for granted………….

#146 Westernman on 03.10.12 at 1:21 pm

Tim @ # 58,
Your description of the P.M. accurately describes every P.M. this country has ever had…at least in my lifetime and that of my father before me.
Nothing has changed on that front for at least 100 years and I’m not expecting any change soon…

#147 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 1:22 pm

#129 };-) aka DA

“Garth must be very angry with me.”

It’s even worse than that — neither Garth nor any of the “pups and poodles” could care less about you.

Kind of like your life away from this blog, right?

#148 Westernman on 03.10.12 at 1:26 pm

Tim @ # 55,
Spoken like a true socialist… I guess in your opinion it’s much better for everyone to be poor – then at least we are all ” equal ” which is apparently the only function society has according to you…

#149 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 1:35 pm

#141 *Exasperated sigh* on 03.10.12 at 1:10 pm
};-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:59 am “Seriously though, wouldn’t this be a boring place without my contentious input?”

};-) aka DA post times,
10:53 pm
2:08am
10:54am
11:10am
11:19am
11:43am
11:45am
11:59am

Nothing else to do today?

Actually it’s Spring Break and nothing much really happens over Spring Break I have learned. So we are headed taking the opporunity, my Amazon companion and I, to head out on an exotic vacation to her native home land where such things as blogging on the internet are rare and frowned upon. So I am just getting a few, or many as the case may be, last words in before my departure. };-)

Thanks for the grammar lessons John G. Send me a bill for the tutorials will you? You can email it to [email protected] and I will take care of it upon my return.

#150 BigD on 03.10.12 at 1:41 pm

I was speaking to a close friend who is an executive with a private lender. He is very sharp and speaks openly of the difficulties ahead. He is particularly nervous about the upcoming budget.

That said, I found his comments about CMHC to be very interesting. As we all know, the CMHC has a $600B cap and we are ~$40B away from that. He commented that ScotiaBank alone pushed $17B onto CMHC in December and BMO and the rest pushing 2.99% is really just an attempt to get to the trough before it’s empty.

Does anyone have any data to support this? If it’s real, it sounds like a brick wall is coming up soon.

#151 Industrial Guy on 03.10.12 at 1:47 pm

I just don’t get it ….. The unemployment situation in southern Ontario is getting worse according to the recent report from Stats Canada. Only finance, insurance, real estate and leasing added 41,000 jobs … all careers with a great future once the real estate bubble pops.
The unemployment rate amongst those under thirty is a national crisis. Yet fools line up at build sites for hours to buy overinflated real estate at the top of a bubble market.

The secret is out. It’s going to pop. In some parts of Canada it already has. The banks don’t drop their mortgage rates unless they are trying to move more paper. It’s that supply and demand thing everyone talks about.

All the indicators are there. Will it be a slow and steady decline? Will it be a US style free fall? It all depends on the herd mentality which grips the market once all those over extended condo owners realize they are about to lose their shirts.
It sure looks like a growing percentage of potential home buyers are voting with their feet not to play this rigged game anymore.

Speaking of voting …. The people in this provincial riding should have voted for a parrot …. since that’s what they elected. A lot of people are desperate in SW Ontario and this clown wants them to eat cake ……..
http://www.stthomastimesjournal.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3497564

#152 jess on 03.10.12 at 1:51 pm

A Branch is part of a Vine.

Another rogue accountant offering corruption services
“PKF Vanuatu would provide an Australian company or director with false invoices from an overseas-registered company that had a bank account in NZ.”
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2008/04/29/pkf-vanuatu-rotten-to-the-core/

Tax havens and tax administration
Red flag arrangements – beware
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.aspx?doc=/content/46908.htm&page=12&H12

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2008/04/29/pkf-vanuatu-rotten-to-the-core/
======

Australian accountant Robert Agius, and principal of PKF Vanuatu, who is accused of masterminding Australia’s biggest tax scam, involving more than 400 people, some at the highest echelons of Australian business.

Read more: http://www.accountancyage.com/aa/news/1788121/vanuatu-scrapping-tax-haven-status#ixzz1ojhgQ0ls

Taxman has a win in ANZ Pacific tax haven case

#153 DonDWest on 03.10.12 at 2:07 pm

#109 Alister

Forget it, why would the RCMP investigate? After all, it’s perfectly normal for a university student studying to become a teacher to bring a suitcase of 1.1 million in cash to bid on a home.

Haven’t you heard, it’s racist to suggest that ANYONE but whites are capable of commiting crimes?

#154 Al on 03.10.12 at 2:22 pm

Canada is a parking space for money from China, Iran, Middle East and a lot of this may be proceeds of illegal activity. FINTRAC (Government paper Tiger)requires a ton of paperwork but did not even know that one of Gaddafi’s sons owned a luxury condo in Toronto.

#155 Westernman on 03.10.12 at 2:44 pm

[email protected]#153,
You are exactly right, in order for the RCMP to be interested there has to be a seat belt violation – nothing else is of even remote interest to them…
And you are right again, ( two in a row – a record for you ) ONLY whites can be racist in the PC world of the Canadian Socialist utopia…

#156 Uh Oh Canada on 03.10.12 at 2:47 pm

};-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 12:54 pm

I will continue to critique your editorials and the pups and poodles posts as long as I am permitted to just as you and they will mine – that is fair.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Garth,

I thought we voted DA off the blogland a while ago, yes?

#157 Herb on 03.10.12 at 2:52 pm

#146 Westernmoron,

you must have been born of a virgin in 2006. I have watched every PM since Uncle Louie handed over to the Chief, and Harper takes the cake, so to speak.

#158 earlymidlifecrisis on 03.10.12 at 2:55 pm

@#8 steve O- I’m not garth but i’ll give my opinion- depends on your ethics. Do you care how they get the $?

http://www.cbc.ca/marketplace/2012/troubleforrent/

#159 jess on 03.10.12 at 3:24 pm

Where are the knockers?

… an editorial that Lewis wrote in 1908 entitled “The Needful Knocker”, boosting was the opposite of knocking. The editorial explained:

The booster’s enthusiasm is the motive force which builds up our American cities. Granted. But the hated knocker’s jibes are the check necessary to guide that force. In summary then, we do not wish to knock the booster, but we certainly do wish to boost the knocker.” –Sinclair Lewis

…”During the expansion of the American and Canadian West, boosterism became epidemic as the leaders and owners of small towns made extravagant predictions for their settlement, in the hope of attracting more residents and, not coincidentally, inflating the prices of local real estate.—[1]wiki

#160 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 3:25 pm

#143John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 1:17 pm
#85 };-) aka DA

Irreverence means lack of respect, not criticism.

Being a narcissist, you would of course confuse one with the other.

I suspect from the subtle undertones contained between the lines of your retort that you too are something of a narcissist and maybe a little resentful if not jealous of my encroachment that of your hallowed domain. Don’t bog yourself down in preoccupation with feelings of resentment toward me – it’s not conducive to a healthy constitution.

I know you will spite me for, me of all people, having given you this advice but really John G. just ignore me. Your beefs with me are too petty. I am sure you’ve got bigger fish to fry than to spend so much time correcting the grammar and spelling of such an illiterate ignorant as me. And that’s not to mention that it too often and easily sways the topic of conversation from the intent of this “pathetic” blog.

#161 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 3:33 pm

“Garth, I thought we voted DA off the blogland a while ago, yes?” – #156 Uh Oh Canada

Worry not Dude as I will soon be taking a well deserved break from all things real estate including this “pathetic” blog. If you are lucky I will in that time have broken my habit of frequenting this place and never thereafter return.

Let us hope and pray. Ok, ok… let us “hope”.
};-)

#162 John on 03.10.12 at 3:46 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11562642&PidKey=135397422

“Prime building lot west of Dunbar!”

You can tell a lot about this listing at close to three million dollars for a west side tear down bungalow in Vancouver.
First, this house was built in 1950 and it looks like very little has been done since.
Second, the house is being sold by a caucasian real estate agent which indicates that the owners are long term owners who are caucasian.
Three, this house will be paid for in cash with money from China.
Four, this house will be torn down and a new monster house will take it’s place.
Vancouver is a city that has had the guts of it’s middle class ripped right out of it.
Vancouver is quickly going from being a city to a theme park for the rich.
Within a few years the largest city in BC will be Surrey and not Vancouver.
Vancouver city is closing elementary schools and downsizing this educational system because the people buy these houses do not have children this age, and the ones that do have gone to the suburbs long ago.
Within one block of the epicentre of the Stanley Cup riots last year are new condos going up that top out at over twelve million dollars.
The peasants in the street rioting are almost all from the suburbs.
The cops who are defending the city, and who work for the city, almost all live out in the suburbs too because they can no longer afford to live in the city that they work for.
The Vancouver Police Department used to have a policy that employees had to live in Vancouver, but that was discarded long ago when they discovered that their employees could no longer afford to actually live here.
Vancouver = a postcard city.
Nice on the surface, like a Hollywood movie set.
But look a little closer and rage and anger here is manifest.

#163 John on 03.10.12 at 3:52 pm

Interest rates are going to go up, but they CAN’T go up. Seattle should be down even more, but Fed liquidity is allowing local real estate markets to limp along.

Do an exercise. A stress test. Say interest rates went to a modest 8%. We are in a free market, right? Instead of things being as bad as they really are, let’s use a little “optimism” and put it at 8% in a “downturn”(?).

Play out the “portfolio”. I’d like to hear a discussion about the macros on that one. Condition: You’re not allowed to leave out the words “war” and “hyperinflation”.

I’m betting an explanation as obviously far off as the housing scam.

Nonetheless, renting is the only alternative as this saga plays out. What’s so interesting is how human thinking works…for almost everything. We all want it our way, regardless of facts or consequences. It’s just human nature. Fear.

#164 TurnerNation on 03.10.12 at 4:04 pm

Closing costs are everywhere these days. Every try renting a car? What are these fees. I’m surprised there’s no Tire tax, A/C tax, Premium Location Tax , “Carbon tax” (imagine, a tax on Earth’s most plentiful element) on this one.

Energy recovery fee? Is this a perpetual motion machine?

1 Weekend day at $33.50 per day. Unlimited kilometers.

Base Rate:
$33.50
Taxes, Surcharges & Fees
ENERGY RECOVERY FEE $0.79
HARMONIZED SALES TX $5.20
VEHICLE FEE $1.75
VEH MAINT FEE $3.95

Total Estimated Charges: $45.19

#165 gladiator on 03.10.12 at 4:05 pm

So, HAM is alive and well, after all – you used to refute anecdotal evidence from posters, but now you rely on it?
So, prices are still going up and bidding wars still happen.
So, Canadians still have some way to go to reach the heights of debt to disposable income that Americans and British reached some years ago.
Why would the bubble pop now? There’s still room for it to inflate. One of my friends who does renovation jobs on the side tells me he’s never been this crazily busy since he started doing it. He literally works around the clock (besides his main job). Of course this will end, but not now. Smoking Man’s prediction of the bubble popping in 2014 is quite reasonable.

HAM is not a key determinant of market valuations. — Garth

#166 down and out on 03.10.12 at 4:10 pm

So I have a paid for house go to bank for business loan ,7% they say ,I want 2.99% .They say that rate only comes with a house .So sell my” paid for” abode get a new place and use money from old place to finance business or invest..What are the tax advantages etc. I see no end to this cycle unless I am missing something .

#167 Westernman on 03.10.12 at 4:12 pm

[email protected]#157,
Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?
Trudeau was by far the worst in living memory – no one even comes close…
Unless you get the post someday, God forbid!, then you would be the worst in living memory – no one else even comes close… ( well, maybe form Man ).

#168 Fabrega on 03.10.12 at 4:15 pm

Government/Central Bank to the people: “don’t worry we are here to help.”
Whoever believes this BS is in serious trouble and need to get their brain examined.

#169 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 4:36 pm

#160 };-) aka DA

“I suspect from the subtle undertones contained between the lines of your retort that you too are something of a narcissist…”

Classic projection. I would expect nothing less from a person with a personality disorder.

#156 Uh Oh Canada

“I thought we voted DA off the blogland a while ago, yes?”

I think it/he fell through the cracks.
My vote still stands.
And we all know it’s going to happen sooner or later, so why not sooner?

#170 NoName on 03.10.12 at 4:47 pm

If RE destabilize to the point that greaterfools are not buying any more, and government keeps rates low as stimulus, what will happen to the bonds?
will price go down???? I price goes down, what happens when government issues new bond, automatically new bond should yield more?
need some help here…

#171 Salama6898 on 03.10.12 at 4:55 pm

I am currently renting at YorkMills&Leslie. My original intention was for the good school in this area. Now my son is in UW now. I am still renting.
The other day my boss ( a bully woman) told me ” People live in apartment are poor and low class” . No intention to argue. This is not the first comment I got from friends and collegues.
Not everyone read your blog everyday, but I do.

#172 Realtors in a panic on 03.10.12 at 5:03 pm

Reactors on this blog talk about HAM when the reality is HAM is a tiny number. 95% of so called HAM is BAM borrowed Asian Money. Everyone in the mortgage industry would tell you. Realtors are on garths blog for one reason misinformation and lies. If the market was well they wouldn’t be here. The fact is they can’t sell anything and hope their propaganda of lies helps then.

#173 Sh on 03.10.12 at 5:05 pm

A little bit of reality juice for the doomers here who think US stocks will crash, collapse will ensue, and anyone with rifles and beans will survive:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/423061-why-the-global-aging-crisis-is-not-a-threat-to-stock-prices?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

#174 Devore on 03.10.12 at 5:24 pm

Some commentary from people who know what they are talking about on these 2.99/3.99 mortgages:

http://canadamortgagenews.ca/2012/03/08/bmo-no-frills-mortgage-2-99-is-back-but-please-dont-read-the-fine-print/

#175 NoName on 03.10.12 at 5:33 pm

14 yrs old girl buys a house for cash…. (mom helped a bit)

Interesting story definitely worth of reading

“But it’s hard for Willow to see herself as symbolic of anything. To a 14-year-old kid in Florida, the housing collapse is basically the only world she’s known.”

#176 Canadian Watchdog on 03.10.12 at 5:41 pm

Liberals break election promise as 30 per cent tuition fee reduction becomes a five per cent increase: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/934535/liberals-break-election-promise-as-30-per-cent-tuition-fee-reduction-becomes-a-five-per-cent-increase

Stiffed…

#177 DM in C on 03.10.12 at 5:42 pm

my habit of frequenting this place and never thereafter return.”

Yeah, you frequently promise that. But you’re a realtor, and you lie.

Everyone, he’s playing a passive aggressive game, just trying to piss everyone off enough to get some attention before he takes off again.

I’m ignoring it from now on. Attention is what he craves, so starve him of it.

#178 Devore on 03.10.12 at 5:44 pm

#122 };-) aka DA

Bill Gates neighbourhood home values average just $1,009,785. Oh but wait… I thought Seattle homes averaged just $320,000.

So a very tony and exclusive Seattle area where billionaires congregate pulls in an average of $1M houses, while the average teardown in all of Vancouver costs nearly the same $1M, and that’s your argument?

#179 Devore on 03.10.12 at 5:47 pm

#141 *Exasperated sigh*

But Saturdays are prime open house dayyy…….. ahhhhh I see what you did there!

#180 Ogopogo on 03.10.12 at 5:50 pm

DA’s posts are particularly nauseating today, which is saying a lot. Ides of March?

On a welcome change of subject, Garth’s previous example of recency will repeat itself, I think, with Apple shares. Right now it seems inconceivable that the stock will crash. Nortel also seemed impregnable… until it wasn’t.

Canadian RE Bubble Deniers (CREBDEN) are now avoiding talking about urban centres where the bubble pop is already in full fart mode, such as my very own playground of Kelowna. They will keep braying about Toronto and Vancouver until the inevitable crash hits these cities too. Beware desperate realtors now lying more than ever.

#181 Vancouver_Bear on 03.10.12 at 5:57 pm

It is sad that canadian authorities welcome International crime cartels to launder their money with no questions asked. Next we will be welcoming terrorists and providing same services for them. No wonder US wants to install 10 feet wall on the border with Canadastan…..I only would add to that the fence must be 30 feet, under high voltage and with poisoned spikes…..only this will help. Under no circumstances Chinese authorities would allow to move 1.1 mil in cash through their border…..make your own conclusion what Canada will become sooner than you can imagine in your wildest dreams. If that student were to go to US….she would be deported and executed upon arrival in China…..but Canada is different it is a safe heaven for international crime and soon terrorism…..because it’s good for economy stats. Nuff said.

#182 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 6:05 pm

#169John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 4:36 pm

#160 };-) aka DA

“I suspect from the subtle undertones contained between the lines of your retort that you too are something of a narcissist…”

Classic projection. I would expect nothing less from a person with a personality disorder.

#156 Uh Oh Canada

“I thought we voted DA off the blogland a while ago, yes?”

I think it/he fell through the cracks.
My vote still stands.
And we all know it’s going to happen sooner or later, so why not sooner?

Really? I am the one with a personality disorder… the only one?

Did I not suggest John G. that you simply ignore me? Yet what do you do? You perpetuate this petulant holier than thou, your shit doesn’t stink academic banter of yours. What does that say of you John G.?

Most certainly I am not without my own faults. If you only knew of those the written word does not disclose… But you my prissy little *** DELETED * * * up friend – that you can’t seem to shake that need to contribute to this blog nothing more than condemnation of me must in itself say something of you. Would you not agree?

You need to take a chill pill Dude and ignore me. I’m quite sure you log on just to seek out and take issue with what I post. I’m flattered truly I am… but seriously there are better things for you to be doing with your time – like posting something profound on the economy. Come on you are obviously a learned man – do something constructive with your giant brain instead of stooping down to my level to pick apart my personality disorders, bad grammar and poor spelling.

Now let’s move on to the topic at hand, which last time I looked had something to do with the trials and tribulations we each face in today’s economic environment and not that of our personal failings in the land of academia or interpersonal relationship building and management.

#183 jess on 03.10.12 at 6:14 pm

Round Robins
http://www.ato.gov.au/content/downloads/SNC00220075JudgeMorgan.pdf
======

Reforming LAFHA
temporary skilled workers in Australiato take effect 01 July 2012.

The issue of growing misuse of this tax exemption was reported at the recent TAX Forum, and comes as the Australian Tax Office (ATO) has seen the total amount of LAFHA reported by employers increase from $162 million in 2004-05 to $740 million in 2010-11.

Living Away From Home Allowance (LAFHA) For Subclass 457 Visa Holders
http://www.ato.gov.au/content/52023.htm

#184 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 6:30 pm

#182 };-) aka DA

“I’m quite sure you log on just to seek out and take issue with what I post.”

You nailed it — you are my only concern.

Rest assured that I will not stop until you are permanently removed from this blog.

And you brought it on yourself.

#185 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.10.12 at 6:42 pm

Greed. Greed is Good. Canada is a great place to unload illegal cash. No Government is ever going to stop foreign ownership. Just another reason it’s getting better everyday. Goin higher folks

#186 Ogopogo on 03.10.12 at 6:52 pm

#173 Sh on 03.10.12 at 5:05 pm
A little bit of reality juice for the doomers here who think US stocks will crash, collapse will ensue, and anyone with rifles and beans will survive:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/423061-why-the-global-aging-crisis-is-not-a-threat-to-stock-prices?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

Good article. Humans seem to have a built-in millenarian/apocalyptic strain. I’ve long suspected that most doomers are misanthropes at heart who’d like nothing more than to see the circus on fire, if only to confirm their own self-loathing and hatred.

My favourite are doomer gold bugs who think their pretty shiny rocks will save them “when”(not if) Armageddon comes.

#187 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.12 at 7:18 pm

DELETED

#188 Westernman on 03.10.12 at 7:20 pm

Canadian [email protected]#176,
The only unusual thing about Liberals raising taxes and breaking election promises is that it makes the news at all…seems like that should be a foregone conclusion…

#189 The American on 03.10.12 at 7:25 pm

T.O. Bubble Boy, yes, Amazon.com is certainly building like crazy in downtown Seattle right now (well, South Lake Union where the South Lake Union Trolly, or SLUT, has begun service). Prices in downtown appear to have stabilized quite a bit in the recent months, and businesses are coming back in. The Seattle market as a whole dropped nearly 20% in value in the past four years or so. 98101 zip code, otherwise known as downtown Seattle, has an average SALES price for condos just shy of $650,000, and a median sales price of $479,000. This zip code does NOT include Belltown or South Lake Union (which is surprising, actually), and it is a small area at only about 140 square blocks. South Lake Union area, where Amazon.com is making its new headquarters, is in zip code 98109. This is adjacent to the downtown core and really is merely an extension of downtown. Development of off the charts in this area, not only for commercial development, but for condos and apartments as well so it may accommodate the nearly 6,000,000 square feet of office space that Amazon.com alone is building. Keep in mind other companies and organizations are setting up shop in this area as well. In 98109, the average sales price is currently about $428,000 for a condo. Median sales price in the area is about $360,000. When compared to Vancouver, this is an incredible “deal” as the entire area is quite livable with restaurants, grocery stores, and all the services you need, including a fantastic transit system. I’d say it is a relatively small price to pay to work, live, and play all in the same area. It is a real gym to the city as it was recently a wasteland of parking lots and car lots. Everything is changing overnight in SLU right now. I’m considering a move to this area myself from the downtown center. The park system in SLU will be stunning, needless to say.

If you’re not already familiar with the Pearl District in Portland, Oregon, SLU is a quite similar developing area. The Pearl is “model” for the U.S. in urban planning, and frankly I’ve never seen anything so well planned as the Pearl.

The city is also building a new waterfront, tearing out the old one and replacing the old sea wall, and tearing down its viaduct to make it more “livable.” The new park will run about 3 miles long, have grass spaces, water spaces, interactive crap, and so on. The world’s largest bored tunnel will run under the city, replacing the viaducts role in the past.

Pearl District for comparison:
http://www.explorethepearl.com/

South Lake Union, home of Amazon.com’s new headquarters:
http://www.discoverslu.com/
http://thesouthlake.com/
http://www.slucommunitycouncil.org/
http://www.seattlestreetcar.org/default.asp
http://ridetheslut.com/

New Seattle Waterfront stuff:
http://waterfrontseattle.org
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwSPmJw8JxY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWfwnkEbc4Q

Couple the new street car system with the expanding new light rail system (runs under the city streets in downtown like a subway, at street level as it leaves the city, and on an elevated platform outside of the city core), hybrid buses, water taxi’s, and ferry terminal, and its hard to think 5 years from now the city will not have the transit issues under control. Its all a work in progress.

#190 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 7:43 pm

#184John G. Young

Wow… wow, I think you really do mean it as simply as you stated but with the upmost of serious intention that your written words lack the inflection to convey.

You don’t happen to possess a firearm do you?

#191 Onemorething on 03.10.12 at 7:45 pm

On the cusp Garth…quite simply on the cusp.

Remember that cool chart you posted before all the money printing about 2 years ago.

We are now passing the ‘Euphoria’ stage and closing in on the ‘Denial’ stage.

I think most of the Denial falls on the lock in to low interest rates means the value of my house will never go down!

Maybe time to show that chart again Garth!

#192 Canadian Watchdog on 03.10.12 at 7:47 pm

#150 BigD

According to CMHC data, ScotiaBank used up approximately $16.3 billion from December to present. http://i43.tinypic.com/24g6t0i.png

#193 The Thing in the Basement on 03.10.12 at 7:49 pm

The American @32 and other posts. Here is link for greater Van REB that breaks down some areas

http://www.rebgv.org/home-price-index?region=all&type=all&date=2012-02-01

Yes, it uses the new “benchmark” price but is useful to show the huge difference between West Van, Van West and other ‘burbs. Detached in WV and VW are basically
minimum twice the price of anywhere else. I think if you mapped this you would see an almost concentric reduction as you move from West to East.

#194 The Thing in the Basement on 03.10.12 at 8:06 pm

189 American re transit in Seattle

“…the expanding new light rail system (runs under the city streets in downtown like a subway, at street level as it leaves the city, and on an elevated platform outside of the city core), hybrid buses, water taxi’s, and ferry terminal…”

Sounds familiar…….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_in_Vancouver

#195 M.L. on 03.10.12 at 8:07 pm

New to the blog – so I’m not sure if anyone was posted this think before.

http://fmlistings.tumblr.com/

Pretty funny – Trying to help my friends out on the subject (25-30 year olds) and a few just recently purchased 500-700k 100 year old homes with 5% down with about 125k household income – they are crazy right?

#196 Jessica Stein on 03.10.12 at 8:15 pm

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Here’s why I do not understand prices in Vancouver. Seattle is my husband and I favorite place to visit when we go South. I look at links on youtube of Seattle and ‘nuf said. That city is awesome! It has a real vibe you don’t get here in Vancouver. I guess I would say it isn’t so scrubbed but is more in touch with the local flavor. Because it is a city of neighbourhoods here are a lot of links to see. Feels younger and fresher than Vancouver. You gotta watch the whole thing really. These videos always bring a smile to my face and the vibe of that city feels this way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftt9wCYH4o0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5PyIVVKoWU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQMntzgbyHg&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcbFcx0jamo&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3LKr7WyBxE&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFYj-Tj78UE&feature=related

#197 Don Vic on 03.10.12 at 8:25 pm

Just to note
#89 Don

Is not me, who is the regular Don, however his/her rant is intriguing to a certain degree.

#198 terces on 03.10.12 at 8:51 pm

Re DA’s noise. Garth here is what is happening to my love affair with this Blog. I come here a little less often now. When I do come here I skim down the posts and try to pick out the links that will be of interest. I try hard to keep my eyes off of anything to do with DA. I understand what is happening to real estate prices, so I spend my time looking after other investments or watching Dr Phil. I really despise this AH named DA and would really appreciate if you would get rid of him.

We are close. — Garth

#199 jess on 03.10.12 at 9:02 pm

China 2030
the “middle income gap ” and an aging society

a. The term “middle-income trap” was first defined in Gill, Kharas, and others (2007). “Middle income economies” are defined in accordance with classifications by
income group as given in: http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications.
b. In today’s increasingly globalized world, escaping the middle-income trap may be even more difficult (Eeckhout and Jovanovic 2007).
32 of 468
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/02/28/000356161_20120228001303/Rendered/PDF/671790WP0P127500China020300complete.pdf

#200 Al on 03.10.12 at 9:18 pm

Went to an Open House in Thornhill today and there were people lining up to get in ! Buying homes with the intent to flip later for a tax free gain beats playing Baccarat for many people.

Won’t they be surprised? — Garth

#201 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 9:27 pm

#190 };-) aka DA

“I think you really do mean it as simply as you stated but with the upmost of serious intention that your written words lack the inflection to convey.”

Another incomprehensible sentence.

And it’s “utmost”.

#202 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 10:10 pm

#195 M.L. on 03.10.12 at 8:07 pm

Welcome to the blog.

And yes, they are crazy.

#203 nnso on 03.10.12 at 10:25 pm

condo prices always go up in Toronto. There is a huge demand from inhome workers. Most of the HAM money not coming from abroad. It usually made from the condos.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2011/01/11/toronto-massage-condos.html

#204 bill on 03.10.12 at 10:28 pm

john wrote
”Rest assured that I will not stop until you are permanently removed from this blog.”

a noble effort . remember to wash your hands after….

#205 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 10:31 pm

“I really despise this AH named DA and would really appreciate if you would get rid of him.” – #198 terces

“We are close.” – Garth

LOL… “We are close”???

Oh for crying out loud just do it will ya!

Do you think I am so stupid as to self-destruct, as tempting as it is at times to blurt out what is really on my mind?

You’ll have to man up and succumb to the wishes of your pups, poodles and dawgs. And what will that say of you? Bit of a catch 22 I’d say.

You are too egalitarian a person to do it and I am too polite to push you that far. We’re stuck with each other. But I think you like it.

You are abusing this blog. No more posts will be accepted. — Garth

#206 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 10:35 pm

#201John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 9:27 pm
#190 };-) aka DA

“I think you really do mean it as simply as you stated but with the upmost of serious intention that your written words lack the inflection to convey.”

Another incomprehensible sentence.

And it’s “utmost”.

Commonly confused and destine to soon be accepted.

What do you do for work – high school english teacher? No you are too academic even for that. I suspect college or university prof. Yes?

This is over. — Garth

#207 ANONYMOUS on 03.10.12 at 10:51 pm

Move West Young man.
Or old man too.

If you have a job here in Ontario, then fine, that’s good.

If you don’t have a job here in Ontario, from what I hear, its easier to find one in Saskatchewan and Alberta, so move there to find work, the houses are more affordable and the pay is better there.

SIMPLE.

#208 truth hammer on 03.10.12 at 11:03 pm

G..re #25 …xenophphobic idiots. Many countries restrict foreign ownership of real estate. Are all these non Liberal ideologues ‘xenophobic idiots’? There is a case to support the restriction….local workers are hamstrung by local conditions……it is hardly a level playing field to allow untaxed foreign nationals to purchase real estate away from people that need it.

I live in a country that does not allow foreign ownership of land……nice house can be had for reasonable prices. It is after all peoples home we’re talking about and not the ‘global village’ blather of the Liberal Party.

In which utopia do you dwell, righteous one? — Garth

#209 bill on 03.10.12 at 11:17 pm

AH said:
”And what will that say of you? ‘
a question you might ask yourself….

#210 guy from toronto on 03.10.12 at 11:21 pm

on behalf of veteran readers of this blog, can DA please just go away?

like, forever?

he is even more annoying today than usual. Thanks Garth

Gone. — Garth

#211 Mel on 03.10.12 at 11:24 pm

Banks, CMHC with the help of our Government will ultimately be responsible for this housing mess that will eventually unfold in our housing horny country.

Oh yes, they will do a very good defending job like” We have warned you not to go into debt”. What a crap! What exactly do they do to earn their incomes? Is it not in the end ‘ their’ job to bring stability in our monetary system’? Knowing full well that there will be high cost to this housing bubble?

For those that blame Chinese, stop! They are coming to this crazy housing bubble late in the game. They are greedy like the rest of us. They started to believe in our
never ending housing money making machine. They came with money, and they will leave poorer. Bubbles don’t discriminate.

Concerning 2.99% mortgages. It shows you how Banks are addicted to mortgage lending. A lot of their past 20 years earnings came from expanding their mortgage back CMHC porfolios. Today, in this messy financial markets, mortgages with the backing of CMHC is the only sure thing that gives them a good night sleep.

#212 Guy_in_Regina on 03.10.12 at 11:38 pm

What happened to all the hype about imminent mortgage rule tightening?

Just hype?

#213 Kelowna is ground zero on 03.10.12 at 11:41 pm

DA 2010-2012

We hardly knew yea.

R.I.P.

#214 };-) aka DA on 03.10.12 at 11:46 pm

DELETED

#215 AprilNewwest on 03.10.12 at 11:52 pm

#165 Gladiator. I’ve had a couple of realtors email me recently asking if I am interested in buying as the “market has come down” …suburbs of Vancouver … so just because there’s some selling and a few bidding wars here and there is no proof that the Canadian housing market is not already in decline. You should know it doesn’t all happen everywhere at the same time.

#216 John G. Young on 03.10.12 at 11:52 pm

#205 };-) aka DA

You are abusing this blog. No more posts will be accepted. — Garth

Thank you Mr. Turner.

As a small token of my appreciation I have just purchased a copy of Money Road.

#217 Terra No-more on 03.11.12 at 12:21 am

Deposed despot’s son had poor taste in RE. Far better choices out there than pokey 10 NW round the back of the dome.

#218 };-) aka DA on 03.11.12 at 12:50 am

DELETED

#219 45north on 03.11.12 at 1:07 am

Industrial Guy: It’s going to pop.

Will it be a slow and steady decline? Will it be a US style free fall?

it will be sharper and faster than the US. Right after the US housing market peaked, interest rates went from 6% to 0% thereby cushioning the fall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg

Bank of Canada rate is 1%. Mark Carney and I went to see the Ottawa 67’s Friday and he explained why the Bank of Canada couldn’t lower it to 0% but I was watching the cheerleaders instead. Anyways, we aren’t going to have the cushion the US had.

BigD: CMHC has a $600B cap and we are ~$40B away from that.

it sounds like a brick wall.

I guess we’ll have to wait for the budget

#220 Tim on 03.11.12 at 1:14 am

#148 Westerman,

you have misunderstood my post. My point is that the US doesn’t do a good job of taking care of their disadvantaged. 60 million Americans are on food stamps. Judging by the way you oversimplify things, you would probably be one of the 60 million if you were in the states

#221 Bill on 03.11.12 at 1:15 am

The selling of our homes to people outside of Canada NEEDS TO STOP NOW!! So sick of Canada being sold out from under our feet. Soon Canada will be a wasteland.

#222 Kelowna is ground zero on 03.11.12 at 1:39 am

Can someone in prison with an Internet connection do the best 10,000 posts from DA? 10 per day for the next 3 years?

I am going to really miss that guy. (especially when Kelowna is down 60%)

#223 torontoRocks on 03.11.12 at 3:15 am

Toronto prices are not that crazy for a major metropolitan. I hope you folks aren’t expecting a 25-50% in housing prices in TORONTO!?? That my friends will not happen. Condos? Dunno. But who wants to live in a condo anyway!?? Toronto is high demand and the supply is limited. Can’t speak for Vancouver which appeared to have a heavy Chinese money laundry influence to jack up prices. :) I do expect some type of price consolidation in Toronto but no major drop. With 3% rates why not buy with little down and a 25 year time horizon? Compare the price per sq/foot in toronto vs other major US/CDN cities and you will see it is still cheap by that measure.

#224 blase on 03.11.12 at 3:16 am

RE: Anonymous/ Move West Young man.
Or old man too.

If you have a job here in Ontario, then fine, that’s good.

If you don’t have a job here in Ontario, from what I hear, its easier to find one in Saskatchewan and Alberta, so move there to find work, the houses are more affordable and the pay is better there.

SIMPLE.
——————–

Houses are NOT more affordable out West, unless you are confusing GTA for all of Ontario. Even compare Hamilton to out West, houses are MUCH cheaper.

Don’t kid yourself. Ontario is in a slump, but it’s not that different from out West, except for out West, the jobs that are available are dirty jobs, or service jobs.

Plus, you have to live in the frigid Canadian prairie, no thanks. Been there, done that for my first 30 years, and never again. I spoke to a friend in Calgary and he mentioned that they had a mild winter. Only problem, it then had a huge dump of snow the following week. The Winter never ends there! Then summer comes, and you have to put a jacket on at 6 pm when the winds from the mountains sweep in.

Look, there are some great things about the prairies, but jobs are overhyped unless you want to work in the bush, in a mine, or have a professional degree (and not a teaching degree, for that, you can look forward to years of subbing or 6-month contract work). Otherwise, you are making similar/same money as out east, with $500,000 houses that are the same as $250,000 London or Windsor houses, or $300,000 Hamilton houses. The weather is atrocious, no lakes to speak of, no maple trees just christmas tree varieties, and no flowers cause no Spring. There’s a reason why Southern Ontario has 3x the population, and why immigrants move there.

#225 blase on 03.11.12 at 3:18 am

P.S.

D.A. is annoying. I’m tired of having to scroll down through his endless posts, so glad to see him get the boot for a while. I welcome opposing views, but he takes it to a level that is counter-productive and overbearing.

#226 villain? on 03.11.12 at 3:34 am

#121eaglebay – Parksville
Some people have money and some people don’t.
And, because they have money, it doesn’t mean that it is illegal or fraudulent. Duh…
Too many doomers and conspirational posters here this weekend. Loosers? Jealous?
====================================

Illegal? Who said anything about illegal or fraudulent?
Stop reading between the lines.
(In your words: “Duh…”!)
Offering $1.1 million for a house listed at $759,000, and that should make one jealous?
Get real, its pure stupidity paying that kind of money for THAT shack.

And I suppose calling people names on this blog makes you feel superior? Bully, nothing else.

#227 DM in C on 03.11.12 at 4:19 am

Gone. — Garth

THANK YOU SIR. Logging in while across the pond I have limited bandwidth — and the removal of useless noise spewing out from Kelowna is greatly appreciated.

As a thank you I will retweet all twitter posts for one week.

#228 Duckworth on 03.11.12 at 4:33 am

Hey #92 . You are way off buddy, Dont know about the vietnamese much , but i did hear lots of Vietnamese are into grow ops (my buddies rental was busted last year with a nice viet family and even nicer organic garden) . However I work with many different peoples and most of the East Indians you refer actually probably earn it legally. Most of my East Indian colleagues have multiple RE whereas many of my white colleagues still rent and.or live cheq to cheq. no BS. tts about how you handle your finances and sacrifice. pure and simple. I have a good job and fall somewhere in the middle but can tell you first hand that you can as you put it “shop at superstore with an LV bag” .. which is an idiotic comment in the first place. Dont hate , if you cant beat em join em cuz hating never wins.

#229 TRT on 03.11.12 at 4:54 am

DA is permanently deleted…

I’m also gonna get there soon!!!!!!!

Can’t have people telling the other side of the story here. We’ll call you anti-immigration/racist here, etc….

I’ve been referred to as ‘racist’ on this blog towards south asians etc. for pointing out 550,000 immigrants (perm and temp) come here each year. Don’t know how to respond…i speak multiple languages and when I look in the mirror, i see dark brown skin….and… Oh…my dad wears a turban…hahahaha

Garth, you have some serious issues on this blog regarding what gets posted. Either you are clueless or you have an monetary agenda ! Seriously, which is it?

Be respectful, or leave. — Garth

#230 rusty1 on 03.11.12 at 7:10 am

re: #198 @terces Garth, I don’t mind seeing views posted on the blog that are at odds with my own, as it lessens the ‘groupthink’ that goes on here.

Perhaps you can limited the Devil’s Advocate to just one post per day, as much of what he and his detractors have been posting recently has been less than useful discourse…

#231 John on 03.11.12 at 7:15 am

Cheap credit and private consumption as the fruit of macro economic planning leads to the end of cheap credit and private consumption.

After all the blood has been sucked out of the body, does the vampire get hit by a shaft of sunlight and turn to ashes? Somehow I don’t think so.

#232 neo on 03.11.12 at 8:23 am

Everyone remember back in March of 2009 when the global equities hit bottom and China got the party started with their $700 billion in stimulus that lifted the markets out of it’s duldrums. At that time exports fell to a multiple year low of 8% but bounce back after the stimulus to 20%.

Well fast forward to 2012 and that number printed minus 31.9%. Global trade is definitely slowing down. In China’s case it has to do with becoming a domestically driven economy. But that transition will take years even in a state run economy. The bigger picture is all this central bank printing is doing is moving fiat currency around globally to cover bad debt and boosting asset prices but isn’t actually stimulating th REAL economy of goods and services.

Tempus Fugit…

#233 Herb on 03.11.12 at 8:46 am

#167 Westermoron,

you’ve got to work on your insults. The current repertory is shopworn.

#234 Herb on 03.11.12 at 8:46 am

DA – one roach less.

#235 DonDWest on 03.11.12 at 9:58 am

#121 eaglebay – Parksville

“Some people have money and some people don’t.
And, because they have money, it doesn’t mean that it is illegal or fraudulent. Duh…
Too many doomers and conspirational posters here this weekend. Loosers? Jealous?”

No Eaglebay, just no.

It’s called critical thinking and intuition. If someone is stupid enough to pay 1.1 million for a junk bungalow – they were not intelligent enough to earn the 1.1 million in the first place.

A conventional conservative styled education has given you the mind of simpleton.

#236 GregW, Oakville on 03.11.12 at 10:43 am

Hi Nastra & Others, You might find some of the information this guy (Dr.) speaks of interesting to think about. 1of3 parts. (It’s health not home related)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52fGw3G02Tg&NR=1&feature=endscreen

#237 cto on 03.11.12 at 10:44 am

Garth

Was DA so bad?..

I don’t know…cause i never read his posts…

#238 Gypsy Kid on 03.11.12 at 10:51 am

“Was DA so bad?..

I don’t know…cause i never read his posts…”

lol! I never read his posts either!

#239 truth hammer on 03.11.12 at 10:54 am

#208 ….I live in Thailand….Australia has a policy against non resident foreign nationals ….China disallows foreign ownership…Cambodia, Phillipines, Laos, Hong Kong, Myanmar, Vietnam…..ditto for India..Argentian limits farmalnd sold to foreigners….Brazil, Uraguay…restrictions……need I go on…I really haven’t time the list is a long one. Unlike my Liberal friends I believe that a Canada first policy would have been the way to go.

#162 John…you make a good point about the rioters and the rage. The media portrayed each and every individual at the riot scene as a deviant, miscreant, thug, low life…..and used this barrage of ad hominem attacks to encourage a city wide ratting out against anyone involved.

I see it differently. I think the young people are feeling the pinch as they see the reality as very different for the propaganda. I think kids are pissed and ready to blow…..the hockey riots are just the beginning. The riots were a catharsis for a pent up rage that is building in our society. Kids are watching what they want speed farther away than they ever thought possible. The gap between the rich and poor is widening rapidly. This will not be solved by growing stronger unions, we must create more opportunities by lowering taxation and the restrictions of entry.

I live in a place where a young person can get into business with a small pile of borrowed inventory and a nights rent….none of the bureacratic crap like Vancouver ( which I am most familiar with) that see’s a samall business opening costing tens of thousands a month in property taxes…thousands a month in business charges for phone lines etc…..no one gets a shot in Canada anymore.

Look at this street cart malarky where a person has to be a recognized chef selling gourmet food for the same price as a sit down in a restaurant. What about the young person who has a great idea nad wants to try? Not in Canada !!!! Rage….you bet….and more to come.

#240 Victor on 03.11.12 at 11:09 am

#221 Bill on 03.11.12 at 1:15 am

The selling of our homes to people outside of Canada NEEDS TO STOP NOW!! So sick of Canada being sold out from under our feet. Soon Canada will be a wasteland.

=====================

Does that mean Canadians should also be “stopped” from purchasing homes in foreign countries, including those south of the border?

Just a thought.

#241 TurnerNation on 03.11.12 at 11:11 am

This weekend’s comments are hardly read worth.

Most are haters of: HAM, Canada, or those with money.

And then there’s DA…sitting in a lonely open house yet again. He even admitted, open houses are for the realtor’s benefit (sniffing out fresh customers/suckers), and your house is used merely as bait.

Perhaps this weblogs comments could close on summer weekends.
Or, invite a celebrity guest columnnist to rebut the post.

People such as “economists” Shirley Cooter, Ben Rabiddog; or realtors like Brad the Lamb.

#242 Stevenson on 03.11.12 at 11:16 am

I am not even located in Canada but do keep an eye on my rental properties. Even condos have bidding wars in Toronto. These so called “pockets in van and toronto” seem to be pretty big cuz prices are not budging at all dudes. You guys can’t even stand behind your believes. One week its there will be no doom and gloom and another week prepare for the worst and expect a crash! Can’t expect much from foolish followers for the past few years.

#243 raider on 03.11.12 at 11:25 am

Wow I can’t believe that so many argue and worry about the living situation of the Chinese girl who bought the place. It looks like that is exactly the scare the media needs: “HAM is moving east will full bags of money.” to spur more interest in the last leg of the bubble.
Apparently foreign buyers moving in, is one of those clear signs that things are getting overheated. Some people may still remember the Japanese, Germans, and Italians moving into the last leg of real-estate bubble in the 80s in Toronto that got slaughtered.

I’m to some degree happy to be acquainted with a Japanese. They see the whole thing as Deja-Vu of what happened not so long ago in Osaka and Tokyo and yes of course the 80s in Canada. Japanese language being chronically short of curse words and rich in the quest for harmony, they have an expression for those rare non-harmonic events of foreclosures that translates like this: “Misfortune looks good on your face.”

#244 Realtors in a panic on 03.11.12 at 11:41 am

Realtors post non stop and all day saying the exact same lies as realtors did in the US. Realtors fear the truth and thus fear Garth as many realtors can not make sales. Remember out of work realtors would not be here if the housing market wasn’t very weak and ill. The RE industry is in a panic and you can see that panic on this blog.

#245 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.11.12 at 11:46 am

#221 Bill on 03.11.12 at 1:15 am
“The selling of our homes to people outside of Canada NEEDS TO STOP NOW!! So sick of Canada being sold out from under our feet. Soon Canada will be a wasteland.”
……….
Oh… great smart one!
Most of the sellers are Canadian.
Most of the buyers are Canadian.
Canada is and will remain a great nation.

#246 Sky on 03.11.12 at 12:00 pm

truth hammer # 237- Restrictions against foreign ownership have NOT stopped the RE bubble in most of the places you mentioned.

Both China and Australia are bubblicious.

Phillipines : Been there done that ( in the 90’s)

” Banks learned from the lesson. The government learned a lesson too.”

http://www.foreclosurephilippines.com/2011/06/will-there-be-a-real-estate-bubble-in-the-philippines.html

Vietnam :

“The housing bubble in Vietnam (and all of Asia!) has already burst and no one’s talking about it”

http://brazilianbubble.com/the-housing-bubble-in-vietnam-and-all-of-asia-has-already-burst-and-no-ones-talking-about-it/

Myanmar/Burma:

“The prices for ground floor flats rose five fold in the last five years …”

http://www.mizzima.com/business/5576-will-the-burmese-real-estate-bubble-burst-soon.html

India :

“Sanjay Dutt, Chief Executive Officer – Business at Jones Lang LaSalle India said that of the total recent residential sales about 65% of flats in Delhi and 35% in Mumbai have gone to speculators. These flats are also expected to roll back into the market.”

http://www.navyroof.com/blog/2011/04/mumbai-residential-property-set-for-fall-of-up-to-35/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_property_bubble

#247 TRT on 03.11.12 at 1:15 pm

Maybe weekend posters can be exempted from over posting/ disrespectful postings???

Gin n Tonic were on special everywhere last nite. It’s collusion I tell you!!

#248 DW on 03.11.12 at 1:53 pm

This north Toronto home will become an income making business renting out the rooms for $450/ month.

#249 Derek R on 03.11.12 at 2:02 pm

#221 Bill on 03.11.12 at 1:15 am wrote
The selling of our homes to people outside of Canada NEEDS TO STOP NOW!! So sick of Canada being sold out from under our feet. Soon Canada will be a wasteland.

Not at all. This is a great way to get foreigners to pay my taxes (and yours)! Every property sold to someone outside Canada means that much more property tax being paid by someone who wasn’t paying any Canadian tax at all up till then. Sell more property to foreigners, please!

Here’s an idea: let’s cut income taxes and increase property taxes the way we did in 19th century Canada. That way the non-Canadians will be paying for even more of our government’s spending!

#250 Cato on 03.11.12 at 2:14 pm

Know whats scary? Factor in the effect a modest decline in housing would have on both GDP and employment in this economic environment. Rerun charts based on these expectations. The end point is downright scary and doesn’t even require anything close to a housing crash to become reality.

#251 Buy Low Sell High on 03.11.12 at 2:21 pm

Regarding that bung at 300 Dudley that sold for $1.180k:
Word on the street is that the buyer is going to redevelop the lot (60 ft. frontage) and build 4 attached townhomes like the ones that were recently sold at 391 and 397 Dudley for $870k and $875k respectively. Keeping a mindful eye on construction costs could make this purchase a profitable venture.

#252 jess on 03.11.12 at 2:32 pm

warehouse workers sue because the private contractors don’t follow the labour laws
====
Won’t that piss off the bricks and mortar businesses?

PHOENIX — Amazon.com Inc. will NOT be required to start collecting sales tax on purchases made by Arizona residents after the state Senate on Thursday soundly rejected a proposal that supporters argued was essential to protect local employers.
The bill would have reclassified Amazon as an in-state retailer for tax purposes because a subsidiary has distribution centers in Arizona.

Amazon contends it doesn’t have to collect sales tax on sales to Arizonans because the parent company doesn’t have a physical presence in the state. And a lobbyist for the online retailer testified during a committee hearing that the bill would violate the Arizona Constitution’s prohibition on bills targeting specific individuals or companies.”
=
March 9, 2012
Although, in Virginia where online retailers will start to collect tax.

http://annandale.patch.com/articles/amazon-to-charge-virginians-sales-tax-c3a376d3
Amazon.com will begin collecting and paying Virginia state sales tax next year under an agreement announced by Gov. Bob McDonnell. a physical presence in Virginia are treated the same as traditional brick-and-mortar retailers who are already required to collect and remit existing sales taxes on goods sold in the commonwealth,” the governor said.

An online retailer had been using a loophole to avoid state taxes by creating a separate subsidiary to handle distribution. Virginia Department of Taxation ruled in 2007 that Amazon was not required to collect and remit sale taxes. When e-tailers don’t collect sales tax, state law requires Virginia purchasers to include the tax in their state income tax return. But most people don’t, officials say.

The Virginia retail industry has been lobbying the state government to require Amazon to collect sales tax. The issue came to a head after Amazon announced plans to open distribution centers in Chesterfield and Dinwiddie counties in late 2012.The state offered Amazon incentives to locate the distribution facilities in Virginia.

The Governor’s Opportunity Fund will provide $3.5 million for the centers, while the Virginia Tobacco Indemnification and Community Revitalization Commission will contribute $850,000.

#253 John G. Young on 03.11.12 at 2:36 pm

#246 TRT

“Maybe weekend posters can be exempted from over posting/ disrespectful postings???

Gin n Tonic were on special everywhere last nite…”

Right, it’s the alcohol talking.

#254 Static on 03.11.12 at 3:03 pm

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-72000-906-.htm#72000

DA from Kelowna.

#255 Random on 03.11.12 at 3:09 pm

If the average house in Seattle is $500,000 and Vancouver is $1.1 Million, then maybe its not that houses are too highly priced.

Most people say that our incomes are too low, that a college grad earning $15/hr cannot afford to buy a $800,000 house, their income is just not high enough.

I offer an alternative: maybe instead of house prices being too high and soon to fall, maybe our wages are too low and will soon rise to meet the house prices?

Maybe soon employers will get used to paying workers $40 to $80 per hour, maybe that will soon be the ‘NORM’ ?

#256 Van guy on 03.11.12 at 3:21 pm

The sad part is };-) will return with a different name.

#257 Fabrega on 03.11.12 at 3:28 pm

truth hammer

High taxes, red tape and low productivity is killing Canada.

#258 Canadian Watchdog on 03.11.12 at 3:30 pm

New paper argues first-time homebuyers may be subsidizing Ottawa’s bottom line: http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/new-paper-argues-first-time-homebuyers-may-be-subsidizing-ottawa%E2%80%99s-bottom-line/

#259 Westernman on 03.11.12 at 4:45 pm

[email protected]#232,
Why should I change my insults? They work, they are accurate, they are field tested…
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it…

#260 Herb on 03.11.12 at 4:58 pm

#256 Canadian Watchdog,

I miss a question not shown: whether the government should provide mortgage insurance at all.

#261 Devore on 03.11.12 at 5:11 pm

#238 truth hammer

In fact most countries prohibit or significantly restrict foreign real estate ownership. At the very least strategic resources are protected, such as farmland and ocean/lake/riverfront. There is a similar situation with citizenship, where Canada is one of the very few countries who grant citizenship based on birth and not parentage.

#262 L00KATIT on 03.11.12 at 5:31 pm

Garth,
I have been reading your blog for a few years now.
Trouble is that despite your uber creative writing style (which i love btw), the steady message that you have preached has not come to bear any fruit.

I like your blog for it is entertaining & witty but what bothers me is that you’ve been crying wolf for so long that I personally am put off by your message.

Sky is falling…yes you’ve said that for very long. Given enough time even the most unlikely scenarios will see the light of day. Think of ‘black swan’ theory.

You are presented with evidence on a daily basis that the market is moving in the opposite direction to which you have been predicting for several years, yet you refute that evidence and keep repeating your hypothesis.

Thank you for the funny pics & your awesome sense of humor but how about lowering the threat level in your message for DEFCON5 to more like DEFCON2.

cheers!

Higher prices mean more threat, not less. But feel free to ignore me. Most do. — Garth

#263 TurnerNation on 03.11.12 at 6:02 pm

#254 Van guy on 03.11.12 at 3:21 pm

“Pleased to meet you, hope you guess my name”

>:-( aka TurnerNation, this is a certifed post yada yada….

#264 Don on 03.11.12 at 6:27 pm

@ Eagle Bay Parksville

A question for you:

The influx of retirees to the mid island more importantly for this conversation from Nanoose to the Comox Valley started back in 1996 with the first of the Freedom 55ers. It’s been 16 years now. All around the area people built their large dream houses, for all those relatives to come and stay. Qualicum Beach boasts an average age of well over 67 and increasing – not so good in terms of long-term sustainability. These people never intended to live in the area for longer than they could while being on the path to leaving this realm to put it politely. Low paying jobs around the area, not many young people left – most travel back and forth to Alberta and the others have left for the excitement of the large cities and will find it hard to return.

My question to you is what will sustain the current values of houses in that area. More and more lower income retirees can and are moving to Port Alberni the area has been virtually untouched by real estate and once again lack of high paying jobs.

#265 betamax on 03.11.12 at 6:28 pm

Garth, you have consistently (and generously) published contrary views here since day one, but I’m glad to see that you draw the line at nuisance posts. Bravo Zulu. I doff my virtual hat.

#266 Canadian Watchdog on 03.11.12 at 6:43 pm

#258 Herb

It’s too late for private insurers to get involved because investors want securities and covered bonds that are 100% backed by the government (legislatively). Some believe Genworth insurance will make up for CMHC’s shortfall, but with their polluted credit rating and limited 90% backing by the government, they will never be able to offer competitive rates.

Regardless, mortgages have already started to default—that’s why the banks insured conventional mortgages with CMHC, you know, the ones they always said were safe high equity loans.

#267 Shane on 03.11.12 at 7:16 pm

Garth, I’m starting to believe the housing market will never correct???

Shane

#268 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.11.12 at 7:34 pm


, utb I sidgres. Smoley hokes! Britney Spears. The nude in the history of Dr. Oz. And now . . .
*
Four Catholic ladies are having coffee together.

The first one tells her friends, “My son is a priest. When he walks into a room, everyone calls him ‘Father’.

The second Catholic woman chirps, “My son is a bishop. Whenever he walks into a room, people say, ‘Your Grace’.”

The third Catholic woman says smugly, “My son is a cardinal. Whenever he walks into a room, people say, ‘Your Eminence’.”

The fourth Catholic woman sips her coffee in silence. The first three women give her a subtle “Well…?”

She replies, “My son is a gorgeous, 6’2″, hard-bodied stripper… Whenever he walks into a room, people say, ‘Oh my God…’.”
*
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY! “To announce that there must be NO criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President Right or Wrong, is not only UNPATRIOTIC and SERVILE, but is Morally TREASONABLE to the American Public.” — Former Republican President, Theodore Roosevelt (wrh.com). Same applies in Canada.
*
Bloody mahvelous day 2day.
*
Garth: re jobs “In other words, the vast majority of the new jobs are low paying jobs, except for a few truck drivers.”; Iran Oil ban to hit ten countries hard; 15:21 clip Life after collapse (no one said the USSR was going to collapse, but it did) and alternative energy;
World Factbook 198 countries listed. Canada is #190, US is #198. We’re in good company; Rates going north? Seems so in UK, and Driving the wealth out This shouldn’t be too hard to figure out; Memories of 2008 Sill fresh; Greece Kicking the can down the road; Philippines US bank offshoring stuff there; So Sue Me! Brit. banks; So Much Fun “In other words, the people who bought those credit default swaps are about to get screwed to save the banks that sold those credit default swaps!” wrh.com; Euro exit for Dutch? Testosterone Harder default to come (TPTB are trying to wipe the masses out).
*
Bubbles Galore Except these are in space; The Calm before the storm; Putin Driving DC crazy; Libya The partitioning begins; Civilian Torture Only in America, you say? Pity; Hawaii “Well, let’s see; Hail the size of hockey pucks on Kauai and Oahu, more snow on Mauna Kea, a tornado in Kailua and Lanikai Friday, and winds are gusting to 50 outside my window right now. (Hope the power doesn’t fail).” wrh.com. Solar flares + HAARP; Syria “Looks like the Russian and Iranian Special Forces are whipping our special forces.”; 2:10 clip It appears Ron Paul had North Dakota stolen, but has won part of the Las Vegas sweeps.

#269 I'm stupid on 03.11.12 at 7:43 pm

Last

#270 Snowboid on 03.11.12 at 7:54 pm

#253 Static on 03.11.12 at 3:03 pm…

Not even close!

#271 Ret on 03.11.12 at 7:59 pm

#247 Room rentals a possibility but profits would be minimal for 2-3 years. $600 a door would work.

The garage is good for 2 more rooms with a little insulation and drywall, so you got 10 doors there altogether. Lose the tree in the front of the place and you got parking for 4 cars x $30 per month. Rent to foreign students if you can. No rent receipts or paper trail and they live in fear of the authorities so you’ll never get ratted out. Charge them large for every little extra. They don’t know the rules like Canadian kids do and they trust their own people more than they would ever trust anyone else.

#272 Freedom first on 03.11.12 at 8:14 pm

#260

Feel free to ignore me. Most do-Garth.

Well said Garth….got me thinking…..I have been reading about the celebrities,stars,starlets, in the U.S. the last few years. From Jerry Seinfeld, to Cher, Britney Spears, Nicholas Cage…….etc……it is a very long list. They too drank the Kool-aid, and some of them have been driven into bankruptcy, as a few of them not only owned 1 multi-million$$$ mansion in the States, they owned several, and high end real estate was not exempt from severe price declines. Wealth does not protect one from idiocy. It just makes it look even more foolish.

I like your replies you give like the one at the top of this post, as you always use wit/humour, and are much more tactful with idiot comments than I could ever be:)…….keep on keepin on Garth…..I really enjoy the comments from people thanking you, who have either sold before it is too late…..or you have helped stop from making the life ruining mistake of their lives……

#273 Daisy Mae on 03.11.12 at 8:27 pm

254Van guy on 03.11.12 at 3:21 pm
“The sad part is };-) will return with a different name.”

****************************

I’m sure Garth will be able to sniff him out.

#274 Smoking Mushroom on 03.11.12 at 8:32 pm

Could you please tell me what is a HAM?

Thanks

#275 Daisy Mae on 03.11.12 at 8:40 pm

265Shane on 03.11.12 at 7:16 pm
“Garth, I’m starting to believe the housing market will never correct???”

*****************************

We usually do. When it’s close to the end…

#276 bill on 03.11.12 at 9:19 pm

#253 Static on 03.11.12 at 3:03 pm
that was interesting. would you say he has a similar writing style along with certain spelling and grammar errors?
I kind of thought he showed a certain similarity

#277 The Thing in the Basement on 03.11.12 at 10:35 pm

262 Don – Parksville-Qualicum and area was a retirement
community long before 1996. Also, median age for qualicum beach 2006 was 61, though in 2001 was 58.

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/92-596/P1-2.cfm?TID=0&Lang=eng&T=CSD&PRCODE=59&GEOCODE=21023

Parksville median age is a few years younger.

#278 Willy H on 03.11.12 at 10:44 pm

Can’t wait for $1.50 litre gas this summer.

Can you hear the giant sucking sound as billions in disposable income vanish – poof!

Sluggish growth in Canada and tepid growth in the USA. We are just bouncing off the bottom, we are not taking flight into some 1990’s bull run folks.

I did not suggest that, but rather a steady US resurgence. The evidence is already overwhelming. — Garth

#279 Ogopogo on 03.11.12 at 11:03 pm

#260 L00KATIT on 03.11.12 at 5:31 pm

Clearly you know nothing of the real estate decline in the Okanagan and Lower Mainland BC. Just take a look at http://www.bcassessment.bc.ca/Pages/default.aspx and see how many properties in Kelowna are underwater. It’s a bloodbath over here. That’s why DA (now mercifully D.O.A.) was always here trolling the blog.

Garth has always maintained that the correction will affect different Canadian markets differently, while some won’t be affected at all (think most of the Maritimes).

You, sir/ma’am, fail.

#280 The Thing in the Basement on 03.12.12 at 12:00 am

277 Ogopogo – how does BC assessment tell us when a property is mortgaged for more than it’s worth?

#281 new-era on 03.12.12 at 3:06 am

garth whats your prediction on what the government will do with Fanny and Freddy (oh I ment CMHC).

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/09/ghost-of-fannie-mae-haunts-canadas-housing-agency/

#282 Ian - Ottawa on 03.12.12 at 10:31 am

Hey Garth, you were cited in this article on March 9th, 2012,

http://peoplesworld.org/canada-s-dirty-little-sub-prime-loan-secret-threatens-to-sink-housing-market/

Just what I need: notoriety on a socialist web site. — Garth

#283 Ogopogo on 03.12.12 at 4:33 pm

#280 The Thing in the Basement on 03.12.12 at 12:00 am
277 Ogopogo – how does BC assessment tell us when a property is mortgaged for more than it’s worth?

You have to look at properties sold more or less a year ago. You will then see what the properties were assessed at this year. Do this for properties in any given area to get a sense of whether or not the average household is underwater.

#284 The Thing in the Basement on 03.12.12 at 8:30 pm

283 Ogopogo – assessed values are for mid year last year, and no mortage amount. Insufficient data to
conclude anyone is “underwater”.

#285 blase on 03.12.12 at 9:13 pm

HAM=Hot Asian Money