You suck

“Just got back from a funeral in Uxbridge,” Dave writes me. “Friend listed his nice 1,800 sq ft home in the woods for $535,000 last year. Got on offer of $415k two months ago that he declined. Now due to the soft market just lowered the price to $399k – gulp – a 25% drop in asking. I think he is now underwater.”

This is from Brian, in Calgary: “I emailed you a couple of times a few weeks ago about our condo in Calgary. After 6 weeks on the market and exactly 1 showing, we sold.  We got 15k less than asking, 25k less than what we paid for it 3 years ago.  Our unit is one of only 3 to sell in the past 4 months, and there are 17 other units still on the market.  Can’t be happier to be out of the market though!  We got a rental condo (nearly the same size as the one we’re leaving) for half the cost we were paying to carry the other one. Life’s good.”

And Darren, an agent in Vancouver: “Here it is dead. Dead. Dead.  Remember 2008?  It was the year where the spring never came, listings soared and sales evaporated.  Vancouver is really trending down that 2008 line right now but stats in all areas are really worse than 2008.  March is on pace to have sales down 30% at least over same month last year.”

Finally, Susan, who runs a large real estate brokerage in Toronto: “Your posts are stupid. You are a dumbass, Garth. At your age, I recommend that you get a real hobby. Go back to 2008, look at all the idiocies you posted here. Look at yourself in the mirror now. Shake your head sideways. Who cares about you? Renting just plain sucks. You SUCK.”

Don’t you love the smell of smouldering realtors in the morning? No matter how loudly they yelp, how much banks like RBC play the media, how desperate lenders like BMO become, how far prices ascend in this final stage, or how torrid small pockets of some markets remain, this housing gasbag’s now gushing air from every seam. Asking prices are falling from the South Shore of Nova Scotia to the streets of Vancouver. Sales are plunging in some markets, even as prices rise. And it’s all the more remarkable because money’s never been (like me) so hot, cheap and available.

Back to Vancouver, for example, scene of a breath-taking bull market one year ago. Remember that? I told you about the Van marketing guy who put a bunch of Chinese-Canadian real estate agents from the suburbs in a helicopter and buzzed White Rock. That night Global, CTV and CBC carried stories about the Mainland Chinese Air Force invading, and unlimited rivers of HAM about to sweep real estate forever higher.

Yeah, right. We smelled a rat, even at 8,000 feet.

It now looks like March sales throughout the region could crash by 30%. Sales of detached homes in Richmond – the most expensive ugly city on the planet – are off 55%. Chi-chi Van west down by half and Burnaby sales falling 40%.

And let’s bow our heads for a moment in memory of the virgins who scarified their young lives in the holy name of “It’s Different Here.” At least half of all the horny kiddies who bought condos since 2008 would be under water if they sold today. It’s big news. After four years of owning, they have no equity to spend moving up the property ladder – wiping out an entire pool of buyers and eventually dragging down all prices. So, without capital gains they have nothing but mortgage debt and a bitter taste, knowing they could have lived in the same place – renting – at half the price.

But, the steamy realtors cry, what about these super-cheap new mortgage rates? Will they not save us?

As you may have heard, BeeMo this week brought back its 2.99 Special, chopping a half point off its fivers. And it went further, slicing the cost of a 10-year mortgage to just 3.99%, the first time in history a major lender has been this brazen. Thursday afternoon TD Canada Trust jumped into the fray, matching the 2.99, but for a four-year loan. No doubt others will engage in the latest mortgage war, which officially starts on Sunday.

If the results of the last war repeat, then a mess of new virgins will be sucked in and qualify for mortgages they may not be able to afford in five years when they come up for renewal at vastly higher rates. (The average five-year fixed term rate over the last 10 years is 6.28%, which would raise monthly payments by 32%.) But let’s hope they understand this is a mortgage you can’t easily get out of.

This is the fine print: “During the term of the 5 year low-rate mortgage and in the first 5 years of the 10 year low-rate mortgage, full repayment before maturity can only occur if the property is sold to an unrelated purchaser at fair market value or if the mortgage is refinanced into another BMO mortgage product.” In other words, if you want to change lenders or hit a personal wall and have to sell cheap, fergeddabodit.

And what is this war telling us?

That low rates have sliced profit margins for lenders, resulting in a bare-knuckles move to buy market share. It also increases the odds of higher interest rates to come. Every eruption in borrowing merely pushes the country closer to a debt cliff, and aggravates Brother Carney a little more. That the Bank of Canada will increase the cost of money is a given. So if the only way you can afford a sexy condo in the Toronto sky is with a 2.99% mortgage, don’t.

In conclusion, I may suck, and likely do. But I’m also right. Get out.

Follow me for updates to this blog, @garthturner.

 

225 comments ↓

#1 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 9:01 pm

Sure, I type three comments and you start a new blog. lol

I tried waiting. — Garth

#2 Doug from BC on 03.08.12 at 9:03 pm

I’ll try – first.

#3 Uki on 03.08.12 at 9:04 pm

Secundo.

#4 Observer on 03.08.12 at 9:04 pm

As you may have heard, BeeMo this week brought back its 2.99 Special, chopping a half point off its fivers. And it went further, slicing the cost of a 10-year mortgage to just 3.99%, the first time in history a major lender has been this brazen. Thursday afternoon TD Canada Trust jumped into the fray, matching the 2.99, but for a four-year loan. No doubt others will engage in the latest mortgage war, which officially starts on Sunday.

Time for F to make some more phone calls?

#5 Doug from BC on 03.08.12 at 9:06 pm

btw – furthering the evidence of a very well done advertising campaign – I couldn’t help but want to scream “Aflac!” when I opened the blog.

#6 Seven Stars and Orion on 03.08.12 at 9:16 pm

All these fresh, new, glossy realtor ads popping up all over my west centre ottawa ‘hood. Makes me want to open up the MLS map and start crunchin’ numbers!
Not.

#7 TRT on 03.08.12 at 9:18 pm

What happen to RE over the coming years is a guessing game.

What will happen is:

Unions will be busted/pressured. Public has bought the Kool-Aid. This will drive down wages across a wide spectrum of industries…and not only unionized ones. Boy, are some union bashers going to be in for a surprise!!

Free trade agreement to be signed in 2103 with India will further pressure wages here.

Some workers are protected due to entry barriers to their professions and it is these workers that will do well.

Also those that will do well are ones with liquid assets.

Regarding RE, an alternative view is that rising values over the last decade have kept the majority happy while underlying structural changes are implemented. When these changes are firmly in place, expect RE to drop.

What happens then? Fast Forward 20 years:

Three classes of people (Just like India/china):

1) Unprotected Labour (no barrier to entry) – majority of Canadians in this class, wages will be low as loabour will be plentiful.

2) Protected Labour (strong barriers to entry) – Doctors, Port workers, Dentists, Politicans, etc.

3) Non-working class – this group owns most of the assets whether liquid or not. Their goal is not to work a 9-5 job but to ‘grow’ their money.

Like I said, Just like India! Watch and wait.

#8 TaxHaven on 03.08.12 at 9:26 pm

“At least half of all the horny kiddies who bought condos since 2008 would be under water if they sold today. It’s big news. After four years of owning, they have no equity to spend moving up the property ladder – wiping out an entire pool of buyers and eventually dragging down all prices. So, without capital gains they have nothing but mortgage debt…”

Cue the wave of job losses next…

Toast. Toast. Toast.

And I’m NOT cheering the coming wave of unemployment because I enjoy seeing naive home”buyers” sink.

Yes, I look forward to it…but because now we’ll see who’s been swimming naked. Which businesses were viable without borrowing. Which business models made sense. Who saved and who didn’t. We’ll see why central bank pumping doesn’t create real growth, real wealth…

And, with any luck too we’ll see gold float and paper sink.

#9 Van guy on 03.08.12 at 9:29 pm

Garth,

Did Sherry Pooper sell her house?

http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/amcharts/mar0612.pdf

#10 Van guy on 03.08.12 at 9:31 pm

That realtor that took some HAM on a chopper ride was Steve Latham. A white guy trying to get a piece of HAM. That’s why it didn’t work out for him.

#11 Uh Oh Canada on 03.08.12 at 9:32 pm

“And let’s bow our heads for a moment in memory of the virgins who scarified their young lives in the holy name of “It’s Different Here.”
_____________________________________________

I took one solemn moment with tears falling from my eyes and then I proceeded to dance with sheer joy on the table.

#12 Smoking Man on 03.08.12 at 9:32 pm

Well I sold off my last investment property condo last summer. I will never sell the little shack I live in, perfect location for me. When my 90 year old nabour dies going to add another story. Promissed her would not do it till she crocked, that old bag keeps going and going.

Going vegas to by a few properties easter weekend,

USA has hit bottom. BUY BUY BUY, I remember saying that FEB a few years ago when the market hit bottom.

Rent vs ownership down there is insane, way more to rent.

This is a ten year plan.

Garth I’ll email you some pics and prices of what I find

#13 Timbo on 03.08.12 at 9:35 pm

That was a great read Garth,

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/minimum-wage-to-be-frozen-for-20yearolds-7544757.html

too afraid to raise the minimum wage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=5we2rAggjas#!

here is a song for those home owners under water.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/35-shocking-statistics-that-prove-that-things-have-gotten-worse-in-america

#18 Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now about 5 times larger than it was just 20 years ago.

good gawd the list is depressing …

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.08.12 at 9:36 pm

What was the Garth “affordability number” for the $1.75M Leaside house?

$233,000 gross annual income?

#15 Chaddywack on 03.08.12 at 9:38 pm

I think that Chinese Helicopter guy was Cam Good. The same d-bag who told Vancouverites (and I’m paraphrasing here) “This is the best city in the world and if you can’t afford it maybe you should live somewhere else.”

I’m sure he has no problem getting the Vancouver Amazons though with those sweet realtor commissions he’s been raking in!

#16 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.08.12 at 9:40 pm

TRT- YOU are [email protected]!

Welcome to Oligarchy, brought to you by “Conservative Movements” orchestrated by the rich, educated, and non-stupid! Yes, even our own Citibank knew the underpinnings, and penned a diatribe to that end back in 2004 or so.

I digress, how does a working class shuck like the vast majority of the populace fight this? With their vote of course. There is no free lunch, never has been. If you want RE to come down in price, don’t buy it at lofty rates. If you still own it, try to get out before you lose your shorts. IF you want to retain, and grow good jobs in Canada write your respective elected officials to vote down any free trade agreements, or have a 5 yr escape clause written in to the legislation whereby your country can leave such an arrangement. (I wish the US legislators had dine that with some of our free-trade agreements).

#17 Abitibi Doug on 03.08.12 at 9:44 pm

So then what, if anything, can Brother Carney or Mr. F do to stop this insanity? Will this action be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and cause Brother Carney to jack up interest rates?

#18 CyberD on 03.08.12 at 9:59 pm

Susan you Tw#T. Let me humour you and say reading between the lines you have a very small point. But in the same breath what is happening in the housing market is a very dangerous game to be playing in. When you flap your lips like the way you’ve done it makes it sound like there is no problem what-so-ever! All I can say in the real world you have no influence on the weak minded. Cause Jedi tricks like your don’t work on me!…or Garth!

#19 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 10:05 pm

For those that keep track:

Held short term bond fund for last 4 years with 2/3 of net worth. BIG gains with low risk. Back into a mixed equity/fixed income weighting now, as of January 2012. Surprisingly the bond fund has completely flatlined since January. Equity/f.i. mix up about 2% so far YTD. (12% annualized, if it runs all year)

And it looks less promising for bond yields from here.

This will be an interesting year. Besides the Mayans…

#20 Smoking Man on 03.08.12 at 10:08 pm

#158 Increasing that 1% on 03.08.12 at 11:34 am
Third person I know now, in last year and half, ‘let go’ from ‘stable’ healthcare related job, 10yr plus employees, high levels of ed’n (I know,…smoking man) . Hunh, guess employment lawyers must be doing ok
…………………………………………………………..

That’s cool you know me, seeing that I don’t know me.

But FYI
I have never worked for anyone but me since 1990. Day Trader and freelace codesmith. Here.

Something about a pay check getting skimmed by the man does not sit well with me.

#21 thinker on 03.08.12 at 10:09 pm

All this time and energy spent by folks complaining about low interest rates, why are you not writing F about increasing the rate paid on savings? That is the loser

#22 Vanessa on 03.08.12 at 10:10 pm

You have to admit… 3.99% for 10y sounds pretty good. If only the prices weren’t so damn high.

Only if you don’t move. — Garth

#23 TurnerNation on 03.08.12 at 10:11 pm

Today’s picture is instructive:

– Middle class city dwellers may resort to capturing, breeding, and eating local waterfowl (even pigeons) during hard times.

– Ducks are money hungry.

– Chicks dig chicks.

#24 Bottoms_Up on 03.08.12 at 10:19 pm

So who won the contest?

#25 Kevin on 03.08.12 at 10:20 pm

This BMO special could end up being like the teaser rates in the US. 2% to 3% for the first few years and then wham, the interest rate doubled if not tripled for these homeowners.

Now if interest rates stay low in Canada for a long time, some would say that there will be a soft landing in housing. But Canadian households have record household debt and much of our economy has been debtfueled and inflated by these low rates and it shows in household balance sheets and in the FIRE and construction sectors.

Here is GDP for the FIRE and construction sectors in Canada
http://tinyurl.com/75pono6

Here is employment in the FIRE and construction sectors in Canada.
http://tinyurl.com/7yb6edu
( Notice the last two times Canada trended above the average, there were some major housing bubbles busted)

Here is Saskatchewan employment in these sectors. Our boom now is bigger than the boom of the late 70’s.
http://tinyurl.com/7s9wnd2

How did the last boom of the late 70’s work out for western Canada?
http://tinyurl.com/7pa2d7z

This allocation of malinvestment is not sustainable when household debt continues to outgrow personal disposable incomes and GDP. Eventually personal disposable incomes and GDP will have to outgrow household debt.

And on the other hand, if interest rates rise in the next few years, today’s mortgage rates will definitely be looked at as Canada’s version of teaser rates.

A $350,000 mortgage payment at 3% is $1656 a month ( not including CMHC insurance, utilities, maintenance and taxes)
If that same mortgage amount is at 6%, the monthly payment is $2239.
http://tinyurl.com/7lfvdfc

So if interest rates stay low, the housing market is toast, if interest rates go up, well, most here get the picture.

#26 Uki on 03.08.12 at 10:20 pm

To #7 TRT on 03.08.12 at 9:18 pm

Unfortunately you are right.

#27 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.08.12 at 10:22 pm

Like I said Rates Goin Down
Cruising around Richmond today. Buildings and houses going up like gangbusters. Hurry, it’s the Best Place on Earth and the land will soon be all gone
As Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney once again warned about the high levels of Canadian household debt on Thursday, Royal Bank of Canada became the second bank this week to offer a special-low mortgage rate of 2.99 per cent to entice prospective home-buyers.

#28 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 10:24 pm

correction: By January I meant “end of January” so I didn’t count that month. Just Feb and Mar. That is all.

#29 not 1st on 03.08.12 at 10:25 pm

Garth, even you’ve got to admit…renting DOES suck.

#30 Babblemaster on 03.08.12 at 10:25 pm

I just wish I’d bought 5 years ago. I have enough money to buy cash, or nearly so, but I’m waiting for rates to go up. I just don’t want to compete with cashless fools who have no fear of debt and who keep driving prices up.

The problem is, just when are these rates supposed to go up? Despite Garth’s often repeated warnings, not for a long time I fear.

#31 I'm stupid on 03.08.12 at 10:27 pm

It’s so funny you use the word forgetaboutit. These mortgage practices resemble 1950-60 racketeering. Get someone so far in debt they will owe you for life. I guess working till you die is a meaningful life.

#32 Michael on 03.08.12 at 10:31 pm

What’s Susan thr Realtors phone number. I’ll add to my list to call and make about 20 various property inspections posing as a potential buyer.
Of course I never show up. I just like pissing them off by having them chase their tails.

#33 Timbo on 03.08.12 at 10:36 pm

http://housingdoom.com/2012/03/08/phoenix-what-has-happened-to-the-dwindling-housing-inventory/

“We also looked at new listings. Most are houses that are being flipped and resold, then appraised at unreal prices. Consequently we are doing the same thing all over again. This happened before when housing boomed. This process makes the sales look higher as the same house is selling two, sometimes three times. So much for the NAR or ARMLS sales numbers.

Many of these homes never get to the MLS. They are purchased by investors and then marketed by rental management companies as rentals.”

interesting times in the desert sun.

#34 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.08.12 at 10:38 pm


Exc. post. “Here it is dead. Dead. Dead. Remember 2008? . . . At your age, I recommend that you get a real hobby. Go back to 2008, look at all the idiocies you posted here.” — For Susan and pumpers everywhere, shove it up yer keysters. Life is too short to be ruled by banxters, mtgs., debts etc.
*
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY! — “I do not find in orthodox Christianity one redeeming feature.” — Thomas Jefferson (wrh.com).

*
The Bubonic Plague has reappeared in finance; Global Currency Wars A US$ mutiny; Why Occupy? “These crimes annually kill millions, harm billions, and loot trillions of the 99%’s dollars.”; Winners and Losers in recession; Gold, and the meaning of life, and Fort Knox; Distractions Despite what Garth says about the US, things may be slightly different; Forbes Lotsa moolah in the wrong hands; Own stocks and bonds? They’re not yours; 155 Resignations Can anyone say our Ship is Sinking? Self explanatory Land of the poor; Abercrombie & Fitch Closing stores, increasing web links; China Looking after their own.
*
Pressure Cooking Beats the microwave hands down; Self Reliance Preparing one’s own garden to eat from; X37B What it’s doing in space; Bill to repeal NDAA At least one Congressman has the balls to stand up to Obomba; Panetta “The Constitution makes it very clear that only the Congress can declare war. Panetta is now saying that the President can start a war merely by having other nations agree that it is a good idea, even if they do not send their own troops to fight in it.” wrh.com; 6:04 clip Libya’s western-backed leaders want the resources, but screw the country.

#35 TnT on 03.08.12 at 10:40 pm

When a housing bubble burst does high demand areas like The Beach or Leaside in Toronto have the same affect?

#36 truth hammer on 03.08.12 at 10:42 pm

The 2.99% fixed is a bum slap laid on F and C by people who know how to work the system better than anyone…the banks.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/follows+with+cent+fixed+rate+mortgage/6273004/story.html

They know Carney is toothless….F has got no where to turn…the banks know it……cap the CHMC….ain’t going to happen……too many ethnic votes lost in the process.

#37 phil on 03.08.12 at 10:44 pm

So, did I win the book yesterday?

#38 randy on 03.08.12 at 10:44 pm

Just wondering what the answer was to yesterdays skill testing question? Or did I miss something?

Winners have been notified. The GreaterFool brass band and Amazonian security detail delivered the prizes hours ago. — Garth

#39 Tim on 03.08.12 at 10:46 pm

You also forgot to mention that Carney is not raising interest rates

Nobody expected he would. — Garth

#40 mid-Ontario on 03.08.12 at 10:49 pm

Early Spring this year should pop the RE up here a bit…we’ll see.

New layoffs plus expected government cutbacks by both province and feds would normally sink RE. However, that may be negated by transplants from the big smoke gasping, then grabbing houses twice the size but selling for 1/3 the price Toronto RE.

Still only a few transplants as many in Toronto addicted to heavy traffic and Starbucks >Timmy’s does not measure up.

No real sign of RE price softening yet.

#41 Colin on 03.08.12 at 10:53 pm

You know what sucks about renting? When the owner decides to sell and has an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.

#42 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 10:54 pm

#36 truth hammer

The 2.99% fixed is a bum slap

– — –

A small bum slap. But the budget ‘could’ come out early.

#43 Claudius Emperor on 03.08.12 at 10:57 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

#44 };-) aka DA on 03.08.12 at 11:02 pm

Nope… still not convinced that I should leave my lonely post as sentinel of the Bull domain of this blog to join the ranks of the pups and poodles. Although I must admit that I am quite embarrassed by the harsh comments of my colleague Susan, who runs that large real estate brokerage in Toronto. Not even I could be so brash.

I must admit that I am quite anxious to see how accurate your crystal ball is when that which it forecasts does finally come to fruition – I’m just growing weary of waiting and waiting and waiting. Any idea when we will arrive? I gotta pee. };-)

#45 };-) aka DA on 03.08.12 at 11:09 pm

#39 Colin on 03.08.12 at 10:53 pm
You know what sucks about renting? When the owner decides to sell and has an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.

Hide the porn and deflate your girlfriend or do as many renters do to dissuade such activities and leave them out along with all your many other vices for all to see. };-)

#46 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 11:18 pm

The 25 yr amortization will help cool the bubble some. But their are other tools the BoC has.

They could disallow any NEW heloc debt backed by CMHC. This puts the risk back on the banks for any future lending, who would charge higher rates because of it.

All unsecured debt would be subject to much higher rates. This would include variable rate mortgages.

Cue the fat lady…

#47 };-) aka DA on 03.08.12 at 11:18 pm

#22 Vanessa on 03.08.12 at 10:10 pm
You have to admit… 3.99% for 10y sounds pretty good. If only the prices weren’t so damn high.
Only if you don’t move. — Garth

Port… as in take it with you.

Speaking of these ultra low interest rates… have you considered, if and when interest rates do rise, the added benefit of an assumable mortgage to a prospective buyer? You might recall how this was all the rage when interest rates rose to double digits in the 1980s. What is it they say about history? };-)

#48 Ex-Cowtown on 03.08.12 at 11:18 pm

Now, with the lights going on (or out, as it were) about RE as an investment, what do you think will happen to the 20+% of our GDP that is devoted to RE?

Same as the U.S.; in the tank and dragging the economy along with it.

A correction in housing prices does not equate to a 20% GDP drop. — Garth

#49 David Jensen on 03.08.12 at 11:20 pm

Ohh…Carney’s really going to almost, really think about raising rates some day kids…you just watch.

Yes Garth, because Carney is going to deliberately plunge Toronto, Vancouver, and the rest of Canada into a vicious depression on purpose. That makes a lot of sense. And while they are at it, heck they will change the accounting rules on investments back to “mark to market” for the US banks, and render them all insolvent.

When prices start falling in the loony areas of the country, like Vancouver where the average house takes 86% of the average pre-tax wage, or Toronto at 52%, he will CUT interest rates.

It won’t stop the carnage there, but it will drive the % of income it takes in Alberta to below 30% (currently 32% for Edmonton and 36% for Calgary), leading to excellent housing for the part of the country which is growing, not declining.

You oversimplify and ignore the obvious data with your Toronto-centric view of housing.

Your Alberta extremism defines oversimplification. Horses like it, though. — Garth

#50 joe larue on 03.08.12 at 11:24 pm

Bad sign…a “realtor” walked up to my house in South Etobicoke (West part of Toronto) to try and sell me a condo that will be completed in 3 years at Lakeshore and Parklawn…when I told him I just sold my investment condo he said it’s a good time to invest in a condo because i’ll have 100K in equity by the time the new condo is built….so sad.

Did I mention that there are 102 MLS listings for a new condo complex (Beyond the Sea) down the street that just got registered and is in the same neighbourhood?

#51 Monster Cookie on 03.08.12 at 11:25 pm

Lower rates make money more valuable, not less. — Garth
—–
OMG, you’re kidding right? I Think you’re not.

Please explain how that works.

Because it costs less. — Garth

#52 };-) aka DA on 03.08.12 at 11:28 pm

#17 Abitibi Doug on 03.08.12 at 9:44 pm

So then what, if anything, can Brother Carney or Mr. F do to stop this insanity? Will this action be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and cause Brother Carney to jack up interest rates?

Forgetaboutit… whatever they do will be nothing more than like squeezing a balloon through a keyhole. All they’ll be doing is displacing hot air. It’s gotta go somewhere. For every action there is an equal but opposite reaction. If you don’t get burnt by the action the reaction will get you. These boys don’t care about you or me they care about the whole lot of us. So… they aren’t going to do anything drastic for if they do it will upset the status quo one way or another. And by now you can be sure, if they haven’t yet learned, they are beginning to see that you can’t dick around too much with the economy.

#53 Timing is Everything on 03.08.12 at 11:30 pm

#12 Smoking Man – This is a ten year plan.

What does your liver think?

#54 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 11:33 pm

Doh

‘include’ should be ‘influence’

#55 U-The Man on 03.08.12 at 11:40 pm

Nice picture Garth! Is that Susan the realtor?

#56 };-) aka DA on 03.08.12 at 11:46 pm

For those who are waiting for the future to come be warned it will not at all be as friendly a place as the past you long for.

You’d best learn to adapt to today and keep adapting to the changes each new day presents. The future is the “now” which you protest against. The future you await will be yet further from that which you seem prepared to accept. Your waiting game is prohibiting you from keeping up with the times. Times are a changing and the longer you wait the larger the gap between what you think and what is.

Keep up or be left behind.

#57 KingBubbles on 03.08.12 at 11:46 pm

As you may have heard, BeeMo this week brought back its 2.99 Special, chopping a half point off its fivers. And it went further, slicing the cost of a 10-year mortgage to just 3.99%, the first time in history a major lender has been this brazen. Thursday afternoon TD Canada Trust jumped into the fray, matching the 2.99, but for a four-year loan. No doubt others will engage in the latest mortgage war, which officially starts on Sunday.

Time for F to make some more phone calls?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I wonder if C & F will set their pants on fire next week in response to this suckers rally.

#58 Mister Obvious on 03.08.12 at 11:52 pm

Geez Garth, you must have a thick skin. If a semi-literate head of a real estate brokerage called me a dumbass I think I’d just want to curl up and die.

”Look at yourself in the mirror now. Shake your head sideways. Who cares about you?”

How can you tolerate such a barrage of caustic fury? I wouldn’t surprise me at all if you just said “phooey on you” to that old Susan poopy-pants.

#59 a prairie dawg on 03.08.12 at 11:56 pm

Apocalypse Now. lol

Missed that one on the first read.

#60 Smoking Man on 03.09.12 at 12:01 am

What does my liver think. Lol my doc said the same thing. Enzimes up. Not good

Well I’m a gambler. Took a week off re blood test. Back to normal

Good genes. Pops is 95 mom 90 both x smokers quit in late 60s pop liked his wisky

I’m lucky

#61 randy on 03.09.12 at 12:02 am

BRASS BAND? AMAZONIANS? And I thought the book was the prize! Love the blog Garth, you have taught me alot.

#62 City Slicker on 03.09.12 at 12:06 am

The truth people need to know about the Vancouver area, and all parts of Canada, is wealth transfer.
Elites are done and have beat it to death, they are ready to move to the next bull asset transfer. Too bad for those who get caught in the back draft.
Banks will be happy to take your property off your hands.
And if you’ve read stories of those in the US, you’ll know banks are not sympathetic. Thanks for coming out.

#63 bubbles on 03.09.12 at 12:08 am

@ BPOE, i too was in Dichmond today, the only things i see are 4×4 posts being planted everywhere you see, listings have exploded and nothing is selling. If you cant sell houses maybe try getting into the pizza delivery business, or the real estate sign installation business i hear they are hiring!

#64 JessicaJ on 03.09.12 at 12:09 am

“…because money’s never been (like me) so hot, cheap and available.”

Stop it Garth, sure you’re hot but not available. Also, word on the street is you are definitely not cheap!

#65 Monster Cookie on 03.09.12 at 12:10 am

Lower rates make money more valuable, not less. — Garth
—–
OMG, you’re kidding right? I Think you’re not.

Please explain how that works.

Because it costs less. — Garth
—-
whew, just finished skimming yesterdays script.

Garth, you have it backwards. Money is more valuable when the person who has it can get more for lending it, hence higher interest rates, making it more expensive to borrow makes money more costly for the borrower who has to repay a loan.

Scarcity makes money valuable, if everybody had bags full it’s less valuable. As is the case now with record low rates, money is losing value by the minute.

The new polymer bills I picked up tonight at RBC now have expiry dates on them!

Best before: Every Passing Minute.

#66 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.09.12 at 12:12 am

I actually thought that Garth over-stated the price of that house yesterday, but it looks like $1.75M is the going rate:

The House (or, one that is very similar, on Airdrie Rd in Leaside)

and, a recent sale a few doors down Airdrie Rd that went for $1.65M:
http://www.leasidehomes.com/4a_feature_sheet_new.php?ltl=972270

#67 ravishing rick on 03.09.12 at 12:27 am

Life sucks,

I went to school, worked hard, did an MBA, opened two businesses by the age of 30, no debt, and yet my high school drop out neighbour… who is a police officer makes more money than me. Not to mention, he bought his house ten years ago when I was in University.

This correction needs to come around for the universe to make sense again.

#68 Mr Buyer on 03.09.12 at 12:31 am

#27$$$BPOE$$$ on 03.08.12 at 10:22 pm
Like I said Rates Goin Down

………………………………………………………………….
Like I said, rates are becoming irrelevant. SALES ARE GOING DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN RATES. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED.

#69 Mr Buyer on 03.09.12 at 12:36 am

#20Smoking Man on 03.08.12 at 10:08 pm
USA has hit bottom. BUY BUY BUY,
………………………………………………………….
Good luck with that Smoking Man. I will wait till they climb up out of the toilet before I chuck good money after bad. An extra 10k on an increasing asset is a reasonable premium for me.

#70 East Van on 03.09.12 at 12:44 am

There’s Never Been a Worse Time to Buy a House

by MIKE WHITNEY

Foreclosure starts surged 28 percent in January, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS).

Now that the banks are confident that a settlement will be reached in the $25 billion robo-signing scandal, they’ve started aggressively processing the mountainous backlog of delinquent mortgages on their books. As the process gains pace, a deluge of REOs will be dumped onto the market pushing down home prices and adding to the 10.7 million properties that are already underwater. Fitch Ratings Agency estimates that home prices could fall another 9.1 percent before the market touches bottom.

Here’s more from CNBC’s Diana Olick:

“… repeat foreclosures hit an all-time high in January, representing 47 percent of all foreclosure starts… This is going to cause some short-term pain in the housing market because as foreclosure starts increase, so do foreclosure sales…. (And) that pushes home prices down…..

We’ve also got … 60 months of inventory to get through in judicial states. Judicial states are the ones where you do need a judge to get through.” (“Unclogging the foreclosure market”, Diana Olick, CNBC)

Despite the media’s repeated claim that inventory is lower-than-ever, the shadow inventory of distressed homes (that’s set to come onto the market) will take a sizable chunk out of prices and increase the number of future defaults. There’s probably never been a worse time to buy a house. A “60 month” backlog of foreclosures means that there’s 5 years of distressed homes in the pipeline.
Who knows how low prices will go? Here’s an excerpt from a post at Calculated Risk:

“January Home Price Index Shows Sixth Consecutive Monthly Decline: [CoreLogic January Home Price Index report] shows national home prices, including distressed sales, declined on a year-over-year basis by 3.1 percent in January 2012 and by 1.0 percent compared to December 2011, the sixth consecutive monthly decline.”

#71 Popeye the sailor man on 03.09.12 at 12:56 am

The lure of owning is strong, we have been brainwashed to believe owning is one of our major milestones in life when building a family.

Speculators roll the dice and take there chances. Win or lose they will have to live with there risk they took on and if they got to greedy and lose everything I will not have a lot of sympathy.

I don’t necessarily blame young couples or families buying there first house with all the misinformation out there from all directions; MSM, MIL, Government, CHMC, coworkers, peers, banks, and realtors. I think this will result is a large economic mess, but the worst of it will be the cost to families. In 2008 there was a number of “murder suicides” a few from job loss, some from marriage breakdown.

This is the very tip of a long sword of misery that will chill the bedrooms from coast to coast, as families struggle to keep a home that is losing value when under water.

I bought just west of Edmonton 20% below the 2006 assessed value. And we hope we got it far enough down the curve that further corrections will not hit us to hard. Time will tell.
Shelter is 35% of our single income which is equal to the average family income for the area and we still find it hard for many of the extra things we like to do. How are families going to have a chance to be a family when they are in debt servitude?

#72 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.09.12 at 1:02 am

For the record Richmond is very underpriced and highly desired for it’s natural beauty, sophisticated downtown and world class restaurants and shopping. It’s known as RichMan

#73 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 1:08 am

Here are the latest TREB sales for Toronto by zone (East, West, Central Only). It is important to note that February was a leap year that accounted for one extra day of sales. TREB indicated in their report that on a year-over-year basis, over the first 28 days, sales were up 10%, meaning the first 28 days for Feb 2012 would have equaled an estimate of 6664 with 368 sales on Feb 29th. In addition, from the best of my knowledge, TREB has been adding/removing pre-construction sales on a monthly basis that has been skewing sales data and having many believe sales growth is higher. When adjusting for these revisions, (which TREB removes on a monthly basis found on the last page of their reports) with a median of 229 removed every month; actual sales for Feb 2012 is an estimate of 6,435 compared to 6058 for Feb 2011, up 6.22%, not 16% as TREB reported. http://i44.tinypic.com/120kmfa.png

TREB Sales For Feb 2012

Zone / [# Sales] / Change Y/Y %

E01 [17] -19.0%
E02 [24] -4.0%
E03 [59] 47.5%
E04 [44] 41.9%
E05 [19] 26.7%
E06 [32] -5.9%
E07 [16] -36.0%
E08 [22] -37.1%
E09 [31] -6.1%
E10 [40] 25.0%
E11 [27] 12.5%
W01 [10] 66.7%
W02 [22] -4.3%
W03 [32] 18.5%
W04 [22] -26.7%
W05 [22] -12.0%
W06 [31] 0.0%
W07 [18] -14.3%
W08 [60] 15.4%
W09 [24] 41.2%
W10 [30] 76.5%
C01 [6] 100.0%
C02 [9] 0.0%
C03 [34] 30.8%
C04 [62] 24.0%
C06 [16] 6.7%
C07 [39] 25.8%
C08 [1] -50.0%
C09 [7] -46.2%
C10 [15] -16.7%
C11 [13] -7.1%
C12 [31] 55.0%
C13 [25] 150.0%
C14 [39] 18.2%
C15 [28] -12.5%

See TREB maps to locate zone here: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/buying/district_map/index.htm

Keep in mind these statistics are more dynamic because of the sample size by zone.

#74 JOJO on 03.09.12 at 1:10 am

Uxbridge, Calgary condos, Yukon or etc, we are seeing RE Market crash? Well where is the crash in Toronto? When Oakville has more expensive RE than Toronto something is WRONG! What has Oakville? Capital city, University, good hospitals, Airport or any turist attraction?

#75 Junius on 03.09.12 at 1:14 am

Smoking Man:

My pet monkey (so soft and cuddly) whispered in my ear that F is about to lower the downpayment requirement from 5% down to .005% and increase amortizations up to 45 years.

Now what?

#76 Timing is Everything on 03.09.12 at 1:15 am

#60 Smoking Man

Ah, ‘long livers’. U R lucky. BTW…

“Research suggests that ‘milk thistle extracts’ both prevent and repair damage to the liver from toxic chemicals and medications [and alcohol].”

http://tinyurl.com/2um78d

Good luck…to you ‘both’. You guys just may see that ten year plan come to fruition.

#77 Alberta Ed on 03.09.12 at 1:23 am

Maybe it should be called ‘mortagicide.’

#78 Arshes on 03.09.12 at 1:31 am

#56 };-) aka DA on 03.08.12 at 11:46 pm
For those who are waiting for the future to come be warned it will not at all be as friendly a place as the past you long for.

You’d best learn to adapt to today and keep adapting to the changes each new day presents. The future is the “now” which you protest against. The future you await will be yet further from that which you seem prepared to accept. Your waiting game is prohibiting you from keeping up with the times. Times are a changing and the longer you wait the larger the gap between what you think and what is.

Keep up or be left behind.
—————————————————–

What about a little bit common sense or some fore thought about the consequences of ones actions?

If people would think before they act, they wouldn’t need to spend so much time “adapting.”

#79 wollyone on 03.09.12 at 1:32 am

71st………………

#80 Elmer on 03.09.12 at 1:36 am

Susan sounds hot. Did she send you her picture?

#81 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.09.12 at 1:38 am


#62 City Slicker — “. . . is wealth transfer.” — Yesssirrree, wealth transfer in effect now from unions (being busted), seniors (fixed incomes declining due to increased food, shelter and utility costs) and the middle class being dumbed down and wiped out like the obedient sheeple we are.

Give me liberty or give me death!
*
Illinois on brink of collapse; China Monetizing the Yuan and Renmibi; China Remnibi or Yuan? Greece from an English perspective; British Rail Soaring fares. NAmerica seems to follow Blighty and the Eurocrocks, so travel will get higher later on, and former Tax Cuts wiped out; Triple Exhaustion Euro, US and China, but China and Russia teaming up; Sneaky Why should Greece buy arms from the EU? Like Illinois, Oz gold sales have collapsed; 24 Hours in the life of Richard Branson; Home Alone Former owner took a bath in moving the house; What should the reserve currency be? Well, the loonie’s flying high these days.

RE inventory; Chart This link was posted earlier, but there is a better chart in this one; Housing Recovery? See preceding link; Z1 Update Not ZZ Top, and Jobless Claims Going up; Dividend Stocks doing well in low interest rates; 3D Printing New fad coming in; Why China won’t go bellyup just yet; Big Lie The return to normal; Argonaught Gold Insider trading? China Letting corporate bonds default; US$150 oil? China Large amount of hidden money; 324 years of gold vs. silver, and 17:38 clip Junior mining, gold and silver.
*
gluGGle “The days of internet anonymity are waning as the veil of privacy that used to accompany making comments on articles and blogs is a thing of the past.”; Smoking Man — Doncha think this goes a little too far? Fukushima Planetary genocide. With Haiti, Libya and Syria in shambles, and various other parts of the world in sad shape, it would appear that HAARP and the west has been working overtime; Goebbels in awe of the paid for and controlled m$m; Coke and Pepsi Changing recipes to avoid cancer label; Three Reasons Russia and Iran; Cluster Puzzles from outta space.

#82 vanlocal on 03.09.12 at 1:48 am

Great photo!!! And very appropriate;) Thanks for all the eye opening wisdom.

#83 Bill Gable on 03.09.12 at 1:49 am

Heh, Susan, how brilliant, and such a well thought out criticism, of Mr. Turner, for telling the truth.
Hurts not getting paid a ton of money selling over priced hovels, doesn’t it.
You are lucky that our bearded host didn’t mention which Brokerage you “work” for.
You are a disgrace. Of course, Realtors are parasites.
I hope you are proud of your brilliant comment.

It’s death on wheels here in Crudville. Vancouver listings are exploding, and sales, as Mr. Turner points out, are in the toilet.

To show how hard it is to convince people the jig is up….one of my siblings bought two properties, before they listed their home. They think it will sell in days. I begged, cajoled, tried to get them to at least read this blog, and still they have been drinking the Koolaid.

So many people are bust, they just don’t know it.

People buy RE without any thought to what they are facing. I’ve said it before; some folks give more thought on buying a pair of shoes, than they do, as they sign up for a lifetime underwater.

I will be really hacked if the Government bails these fools out.

This is going to be a bloodbath.

And don’t think the HAM brigade will save us.

China is doing a face plant.

#84 ANONYMOUS on 03.09.12 at 1:49 am

( ” ust got back from a funeral in Uxbridge,”
– “Friend listed his nice home in the woods for $535,000 last year.
– Got on offer of $415k two months ago
– just lowered the price to $399k ” )

WHAT?
But I thought that Uxbridge home prices were up 38% over last year’s prices?

Are telling us sweet little lies here? (smile).

———————

(“a mess of new virgins will be sucked in and qualify for mortgages they may not be able to afford in five years when they come up for renewal at vastly higher rates.”)

But what if in 5 years time mortgage rates are VASTLY LOWER, not higher, won’t that make it easier for people to meet their monthly payments?

—————-

What does anyone think of this place, do you think it is a screaming bargain for only $300,000 ?

MLS# : C2281411

= 410-25 Grenville Street, Toronto. (Bay & College)
= 1 bedroom / 3 room condo
= monthly maintenance fees = $476
= Taxes = $1,400 / yr.
= no parking spaces available.
= Re/Max

I looked at it and I don’t like it, there’s no place to park a car and for $300,000 that’s just nuts !

However, if she buys it now, and in 5 years the prices rises to $600,000 then she’s got a definite BARGAIN, right?

#85 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 1:58 am

Here are the latest TREB detached sales for Toronto by zone (East, West, Central Only).

Zone / [# Sales] / Change Y/Y %

E01 [17] -19.0%
E02 [24] -4.0%
E03 [59] 47.5%
E04 [44] 41.9%
E05 [19] 26.7%
E06 [32] -5.9%
E07 [16] -36.0%
E08 [22] -37.1%
E09 [31] -6.1%
E10 [40] 25.0%
E11 [27] 12.5%
W01 [10] 66.7%
W02 [22] -4.3%
W03 [32] 18.5%
W04 [22] -26.7%
W05 [22] -12.0%
W06 [31] 0.0%
W07 [18] -14.3%
W08 [60] 15.4%
W09 [24] 41.2%
W10 [30] 76.5%
C01 [6] 100.0%
C02 [9] 0.0%
C03 [34] 30.8%
C04 [62] 24.0%
C06 [16] 6.7%
C07 [39] 25.8%
C08 [1] -50.0%
C09 [7] -46.2%
C10 [15] -16.7%
C11 [13] -7.1%
C12 [31] 55.0%
C13 [25] 150.0%
C14 [39] 18.2%
C15 [28] -12.5%

Keep in mind these statistics are more dynamic because of the sample size by zone. See TREB maps to locate zone here: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/buying/district_map/index.htm

It is important to note that February was a leap year that accounted for one extra day of sales. TREB indicated in their report that on a year-over-year basis, over the first 28 days, sales were up 10%, meaning the first 28 days for Feb 2012 would have equaled an estimate of 6664 with 368 sales on Feb 29th. In addition, from the best of my knowledge, TREB has been adding/removing pre-construction sales on a monthly basis that has been skewing sales data and having many believe sales growth is higher. When adjusting for these revisions, (which TREB removes on a monthly basis found on the last page of their reports) with a median of 229 removed every month; actual sales for Feb 2012 is an estimate of 6,435 compared to 6058 for Feb 2011, up 6.22%. http://i44.tinypic.com/120kmfa.png

#86 Devore on 03.09.12 at 2:16 am

#29 not 1st

Garth, even you’ve got to admit…renting DOES suck.

Not if you do it right.

#87 Devore on 03.09.12 at 2:23 am

#41 Colin

You know what sucks about renting? When the owner decides to sell and has an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.

I’ve never heard of an open house at a tenanted property. Grow a spine?

#88 Freedom 55 on 03.09.12 at 2:27 am

#67
Life sucks,

You got it, average Joe Scmuck Canadian has gotten rich owning and speculating in real estate.
Richer then any other game, gig, degree or business.

#89 Devore on 03.09.12 at 2:40 am

#65 Monster Cookie

Garth, you have it backwards. Money is more valuable when the person who has it can get more for lending it, hence higher interest rates, making it more expensive to borrow makes money more costly for the borrower who has to repay a loan.

The cost of money (interest) is not the same as value of money. If something is valuable, you want to hold it. When interest rates are high, you want to GET RID of money. Sell when the price is high, buy when it is low. Yes?

#90 Devore on 03.09.12 at 2:43 am

#65 Monster Cookie

You are conflating price and value. They are not the same. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. Maybe that explains it better.

#91 Rabbi O'Reilly on 03.09.12 at 2:57 am

Oy…….I love de smell O’ fried HAM in de mornin’.

#92 Doug in Victoria on 03.09.12 at 2:58 am

#29 not 1st
Renting doesn’t always suck!

Sold Calgary, rent Victoria (overlook harbour) “House cash” investments pays rent, 3 year old condo, great landlord who’s not selling (and to my amusement not making any money either), and not a home-owner worry on my mind!

Your mileage may vary. Will buy again when it makes sense.

#93 TOC on 03.09.12 at 4:07 am

Hey Garth, you don’t have to feel alone in your assessment. This guy is almost word for word what you’re saying….

http://money.ca.msn.com/video/?cp-documentid=3e335e19-20a7-470a-aca3-6e97eafff551

#94 Blacksheep on 03.09.12 at 4:07 am

“A correction in housing prices does not equate to a 20% GDP drop. — Garth”
————————————————
Agreed, but your 15% correction should clip 2-3%
in GDP in a country where 20 % +of said GDP is RE related. Low to negative growth means, weak ROI.
No inflation (if they don’t print) means languishing debts and more austerity.

“That the Bank of Canada will increase the cost of money is a given.”
————————————————-
The 10 year mortgage @ 3.99 from BMO tells me,
they don’t expect rates to move much, for a long
time. They, as you frequently remind us, are
beholden to their share holders, and thus expected
to maximize profit generation. Yes, I realize it a
short term publicity stunt that comes with conditions. That doesn’t negate the fact it’s being offered.
————————————————
DA # 160 “I’m still waiting for Garth and his
Dawgs to convince me”
DA # 44, “Nope… still not convinced that I should
leave my lonely post”

Aaw….no one’s acknowledging poor DA.
Try posting for quality, not quantity. Lots of your
stuff lately seems like repetitive, klee shays. Cheerleading won’t sway anyone’s opinion.
I just start skipping over when someone gets boring.
Just my HO.

take care,
Blacksheep

#95 Bilbo Bloggins on 03.09.12 at 5:22 am

In Hongcouver, HAM was dominate this year.
“It’s the year of the Dragon… a great year to make big purchases like over priced real estate.”
Well guess what folks, dragons are myths and so is HAM.

#96 Ex-Cowtown on 03.09.12 at 7:35 am

48 Ex-Cowtown on 03.08.12 at 11:18 pm

Now, with the lights going on (or out, as it were) about RE as an investment, what do you think will happen to the 20+% of our GDP that is devoted to RE?

Same as the U.S.; in the tank and dragging the economy along with it.

A correction in housing prices does not equate to a 20% GDP drop. — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GT , read more carefully; I didn’t say that at all.

The one thing however that did clobber the U.S. was that the high paying manufacturing jobs that were outsourced overseas were replaced by high paying construction jobs. When these construction jobs went, the U.S. was left holding the bag. The housing boom glossed over the gutting of the real economic base of the country. Identical to what’s going on right now in Ontario.

Nobody says a 20% drop in GDP is in the cards, but friends of mine in the housing construction are already feeling the pinch. They are down to doing all those nasty little jobs that nobody has time to do when they’re working on real projects. Not much on the horizon.

#97 Paully on 03.09.12 at 7:45 am

When someone tries to tell you that “you suck,” you have to reply as follows: “I may suck, and I may suck well, but you SWALLOW!”

#98 House on 03.09.12 at 7:59 am

So the USA heading to 20 Trillion in Debt are not going to do anything about it in 2013.

#99 Haro Peas! on 03.09.12 at 8:05 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNMmVxhZP98

Stop are the HAM hating, peas.

#100 Arse on 03.09.12 at 8:18 am

Employment was unchanged in February. A decline in the number of people searching for work pushed the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.4%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up by 121,000 (+0.7%), with the bulk of the increase occurring in the first half of the period.

#101 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.12 at 8:21 am

Finally, Susan, who runs a large real estate brokerage in Toronto: “Your posts are stupid. You are a dumbass, Garth. At your age, I recommend that you get a real hobby. Go back to 2008, look at all the idiocies you posted here. Look at yourself in the mirror now. Shake your head sideways. Who cares about you? Renting just plain sucks. You SUCK.”

No surprises there Garth. Realtors charge a percentage of the the sale price for their services. Lower prices equals lower pay for them and from their point of view that SUCKS!
Then again real estate prices costing more than 6000 man hours worth of pay also SUCK and should not be paid. That is not being a suck, it is good policy for a possible home buyer. Never more than 3 years pay for one person or 6000 man hours (less is better), a 25% down payment and the rest financed over 25 years at a fixed rate. People started cheating to accomodate unlimited greed and a hellish real estate bubble happened and priced alot of people out of the country they were born in.

#102 fancy_pants on 03.09.12 at 8:24 am

Susan’s response clearly indicate she feels threatened by what she ultimately knows is the truth.

…either that or she needs better toys. ö

#103 Bigrider on 03.09.12 at 8:30 am

Seriously Garth, if you are still sounding the same warning bells on RE 3 years from now, as you started 3 years ago, with no correction in site, you may want to give it up.

I have , as my circle of contacts no longer want to hear it. Any warning about a housing price correction, without said correction, are wasted words.

Housing touches the very soul of Torontonians. It’s in their DNA.

But all your friends are Italians. — Garth

#104 Ret on 03.09.12 at 8:37 am

Household debt to income ratio.

We have 153% bid. Do I hear 155? Thank you Mr. Carney.

160%?????? Thank you…but Mr Carney you can’t bid against yourself.

#105 truth hammer on 03.09.12 at 8:49 am

I disagree that the banks are being squeezed for profit. If I was running the shop I would be using this time to print all the new mort docs I could get paper for. Why not…it’s all profit no risk. The banks are on this zero down bandwagon precisely because they have no skin in the game. Every mort they sign gets kicked over to the CMHC….minus the present value of the rate spread and …..fee’s of course. The banks are squeezing as much juice out of F and C as they can while they see those two bozo’s sitting on their hands doing nothing. If the markets fail…the banks lose nothing…..until then they will continue to sucker F into letting them skim big dough from the taxpayer funded CMHC with zero risk.

#106 Deb on 03.09.12 at 9:06 am

The 2.99% Special is the last juicy minnow on the end of a rusty barbed hook. “Hurry folks! This limited-time offer lasts only until March 28!” Yes indeed, because the very next day F will be two giant steps behind the PM as they walk down the same stone staircase, with the standard pseudo-smiles and two thumbs-up, and enter the House for the release of the federal budget.

These 2.99% Specials are clearly teaser rates and that’s all there is to it. During the next twenty days, I sense that we will witness a transformation among those who are foolish enough to bite at the Banks’ bait. We will see the demise of the Greater Fool and the rise of the Ultimate Fool. The Ultimate Fool just can’t understand how it makes no sense whatsoever to borrow cheap money to purchase an overvalued asset which is destined to be worth considerably less in a matter of months.

#107 Lo on 03.09.12 at 9:29 am

Wow. This is crazy…foreign money in Toronto is alive and well!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/this-toronto-bungalow-sold-for-421800-over-asking-yes-really/article2362078/

#108 Jsan on 03.09.12 at 10:07 am

“Ghost of Fannie Mae Haunts Canada”

“The Canadian housing agency’s vulnerability to mortgage defaults has soared nine-fold in 20 years, approaching levels reached by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the U.S. at the height of the housing boom.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/ghost-of-fannie-mae-haunts-canada-as-exposure-worsens-mortgages.html

#109 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 10:14 am

I just start skipping over when someone gets boring. Just my HO. – Blacksheep

Evidently.

Try posting for quality, not quantity. Lots of your
stuff lately seems like repetitive, klee shays. Cheerleading won’t sway anyone’s opinion.
– Blacksheep

You mean something like this;

Single Family Residential Sales for the Central Okanagan (Population approx. 160,000);

2012 YTD (January 01 through March 9)

Volume = 312
Average Sale Price = $439,545

For the same period last year (January 01 through March 9, 2011);

Volume = 306
Average Sale Price = $475,850

But what does it mean? Does it mean that prices have fallen 7.6%? Or is there more to the story?

Well factor in that in this year of 2012 to date there have been only 4 single family home sales in excess of $1mil while last year there were 9 and that might give some clue.

Statistics are like that – like a bikini, they show you what is interesting but not that which is essential.

#110 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 10:23 am

I know you must be asking… so here are the stats for home which sold for under one million this year to date and last.

Single Family Residential Sales for the Central Okanagan
(Population approx. 160,000);

HOMES LESS THAN $1MIL

2012 YTD (January 01 through March 9)

Volume = 308
Average Sale Price = $427,724

For the same period last year (January 01 through March 9, 2011);

Volume = 297
Average Sale Price = $438,510

Yup times the sure are a changin’. };-)

#111 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.09.12 at 10:24 am

What’s wrong with this picture?

China’s annual growth in real estate investment was 27.8% in Jan-Feb

and

Chinese Jan-Feb home sales down 14%.

Imagine that I told you car production was up 28%, but sales were down 14%… you’d obviously expect a massive oversupply of cars in the near future.

Maybe the Mayan calendar (2012 – end of the world) applies more to China then the Chinese calendar (year of the dragon) does?

#112 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 10:24 am

Oh the horror!!! Typo and gramatical errors abound.

#113 Jamaican_Gal on 03.09.12 at 10:32 am

Firrrrssttt!

———————————————————

(Garth, please move this post over as soon as the new thread is started later this evening. Thanks in advance…=)

Garth, you don’t suck. You are dead on with your predictions. It’s just that you are thwarted by unscrupulous politicians and greedy bankers who are destroying the country because they have a need to maintain this false economy.

It’s confounding. The bankers have been complaining about the hot housing situation and how much it needs to be reigned in, and yet they are manipulating things to further pull undeserving people in, as soon as things start to cool!?

Where is the accountability? How can they be allowed to get away with these antics?

Garth, I don’t see a gradual cooling at all. I see a crash that will be of biblical proportions. Once this housing avalanche moves and shifts there will be no propping it up with teaser rates, 3-card dealing, smoke and mirrors, duct tape, chewing gum or well, anything.

That’s all from me today. Just remember to cut and paste the top part of my post as the first comment for this evening’s post. Jamaicans are notorious for being late (island time) but I’m trying to improve and your assistance is needed….:)

Cool runnings!

#114 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 10:35 am

Blacksheep;

Oh and speaking of klee shays – or was it “clichés” you meant to type – damned iPhone spell check? Here’s one for you.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/26/the-cliches-of-economic-history/

#115 b-foot on 03.09.12 at 10:35 am

My neighbour may tell me when he sees me next time that he has bought his 4th house since last year. Ahem.

#116 raider on 03.09.12 at 10:46 am

Garth thanks for all the good advice and convincing poetry. This line is awesome: “Don’t you love the smell of smouldering realtors in the morning?”

With so many property virgins about to sucked into RE when the mortgage wars begin, why not write some more advice for the yet small sane portion of young Canadians how to survive the storm that is about to come.

While boomers, HAM, BAM and other so called “unsophisticated market participants” ruin RE in this country, CMHC is eventually going to foot the bill. Rightfully you already proclaimed possibly higher taxes (also due to other exploding entitlements). While boomers in RE & property virgins are screwed, the young, non-property-virgin generation also seems in jeopardy too because they’ll eventually indirectly foot the bill. Why not throwing them some more bones as well, how to survive boomers, exploding taxes, HAM and property-virgins long-term. With your current and previous insights into F and the cookie monster, I’m sure you also have thoughts about the medium- and long-term policy outlook from Ottawa that goes beyond advice in portfolio allocation, liquid investment tools, TFSAs and RRSPs.

#117 ris ames on 03.09.12 at 10:48 am

“Well, in terms of housing, we might be at the end game,” Shiller responded. “Home prices are back to a normal level. They could just stay here, and that would be all right, right?

#118 Sticky on 03.09.12 at 10:50 am

#50 Lakeshore and Parklawn area smells funny. Is it the food terminal, or the sewage treatment plant? I never understood why there is so much building there?!

#119 Mr. Lee on 03.09.12 at 10:51 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/this-toronto-bungalow-sold-for-421800-over-asking-yes-really/article2362078/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=Referrer%3A+Social+Network+%2F+Media&utm_content=2362078&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

sold for 421K over asking in North York near earl haig to a Big 6 University student that is paying cash.

WTF!. oh well…

#120 45north on 03.09.12 at 10:52 am

Ex-Cowtown: The one thing however that did clobber the U.S. was that the high paying manufacturing jobs that were outsourced overseas were replaced by high paying construction jobs. When these construction jobs went, the U.S. was left holding the bag. The housing boom glossed over the gutting of the real economic base of the country. Identical to what’s going on right now in Ontario.

nicely put

#121 Spiltbongwater on 03.09.12 at 10:53 am

Does the Greaterfool brass band happen to be a marching brass band, and do they do weddings?

#122 Sticky on 03.09.12 at 10:57 am

#74 JOJO
What has Oakville? -> the answer is white people.

#123 disciple on 03.09.12 at 11:03 am

Some guy on the road decided to slow to a crawl in a 70km/h zone in front of me. I passed him on the left. He got angry, and proceeded to speed up and tailgate me for the next 5 km. Yeah, I slammed the brakes a couple times just to keep him honest. Financial journeys are so similar to driving… you got these people who think it’s their job to maintain the speed limit in the passing lane. (servants of The Evil Government Machine). And then you got these people who drive at or below limit in the right lane (I like them). And you got the tax collectors who wait for their prey on off-ramps (you know who).

Most of the British Royal family are illegitimate, including Queen Victoria, Prince consort Albert, King Edward VII and his son Winston Churchill. Winston Churchill was first cousin with Adolf Hitler’s father and uncle to Anthony Blunt, King Edward VIII and King George VI. Adolf Hitler’s grandfather ran the Rothschild Bank, the Bank of England.
Prince Albert was also the son of a stable boy. Close to bankruptcy, the British Royal family were saved by another stable boy, John Brown, who went on to marry Queen Victoria after Albert ‘died’.
The British Royal family are a subset of the Rothschild family and the Rothschilds control all the wars and finances of the British monarchy. The British Royal family declare war as soon as the Rothschilds have completed their preparations. This makes for huge profits.

The world is pretty messed up. But your understanding of it doesn’t have to be.

#124 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 11:12 am

#117ris ames on 03.09.12 at 10:48 am

“Well, in terms of housing, we might be at the end game,” Shiller responded. “Home prices are back to a normal level. They could just stay here, and that would be all right, right?

“I got a feeling” he might just be right. They (prices) will hang there until the next bubble “and then we’ll do it again”, and do it and do it and do it, do it, do it…

What is it they say about history…?

http://tinyurl.com/7onajvx

#125 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 11:21 am

Canada’s Job Market Struggles For Growth http://tinyurl.com/7e5zfad

“The country’s jobless rate fell two notches to 7.4 per cent in February, but that was due to fewer people seeking work rather than any pickup in the labour market, Statistics Canada said Friday. ”

On a y/y basis we’re starting to see some major losses in key sectors: (In thousands) Self-employed -18.2k, Manufacturing -41.1k, Trade -34.1k, Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing -13.2k, Public administration -12.2k. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120309/t120309a2-eng.htm

As for Toronto, higher employment meeting population growth is looking bleak. StatsCan Employment Rate % http://i40.tinypic.com/10dxxso.png

#126 Blacksheep on 03.09.12 at 11:25 am

DA # 109, Yes.
DA # 114, Yes, Word.

take care,
Blacksheep

#127 Houman on 03.09.12 at 11:41 am

Garth when do you think we will see the correction in GTA?
I listed my house (in Richmond Hill) on Tuesday and will be looking at offers Monday. We decided to list 40-50k below market value and see what we can get.
Is this the best time to sell?

#128 Grantmi on 03.09.12 at 11:54 am

Aflac!!

#129 Form Man on 03.09.12 at 12:01 pm

#124 DA

I presume you realize Shiller is talking about U.S. housing ? Prices there are now back to 2002 levels…….

#130 Freedom 55 on 03.09.12 at 12:05 pm

Canada job market stalls again in February

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-economy-sheds-2-800-120130642.html

#131 Van guy on 03.09.12 at 12:05 pm

My BIL has a 3 year fixed mortgage with TD that needs to be renewed next March. Can he renew now at those crazy low rates?

#132 Rene on 03.09.12 at 12:06 pm

http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/homebuyersguide/gallery/before-the-bubble-bursts-understanding-the-real-estate-market#image=1

While I generally shy away from MSN for financial advice, it would appear the GF message has been received. Realtors beware.

#133 Mr Buyer on 03.09.12 at 12:08 pm

Sales are falling all over Canada. DO NOT BUY A HOUSE NOW. I can not say it any better than that. BUYER BEWARE.

#134 ShipsNGiggles on 03.09.12 at 12:17 pm

@$$BPOE$$
For the record Richmond is very underpriced and highly desired for it’s natural beauty, sophisticated downtown and world class restaurants and shopping. It’s known as RichMan

You sir must be trying to unload RE, Richmong is anything but what you say….truly a asphalt covered swampland, boring city and sinking fast in more ways than one! You should try comedy, funny guy.

#135 Herb on 03.09.12 at 12:22 pm

#123 Disciple,

your National Enquirer view of “history” is ridiculous.

#136 HDJ on 03.09.12 at 12:39 pm

In Victoria, construction of a new condo highrise has begun – http://www.bosaproperties.com/promontory/.

I’m very puzzled by the glaring difference between Garth’s outlook and that of the presumably intelligent and experienced individuals who are financing and building this and other condo buildings in Canada. How do these businesses look at the current economic situation and come up with a completely different assessment of reality and risk? Are they financing these projects with the money of others and thus not actually taking risks themselves? I really don’t get it. One would think that condo construction should grind to a halt. But that isn’t happening. What am I missing?

#137 Kip on 03.09.12 at 12:45 pm

“And let’s bow our heads for a moment in memory of the virgins who scarified their young lives in the holy name of “It’s Different Here.” ”

It can’t be all that bad, the morning news in GTA is saying 110,000 people will fly out of Pearson to points south for March break in one day. For people with no money to even pay their bills we sure are living large!

That’s 110,000 out of 6,000,000. Less than 2%. Your point? — Garth

#138 debtified on 03.09.12 at 12:50 pm

};-) aka DA: Thank you for the stats. But damn, you must be a masochist. You know (and you must), the more you engage and irritate the bears, the more they’ll chase you? I guess you must really like being a target. Sometimes I feel sorry for you in the same way that I feel sorry for a kid being bullied in school. However, you are also that kid who always go where the bullies hang out and redicule them for being bullies. Anyway, I do appreciate it when you post facts like statistics. Your other posts, not so much.

*****

Bears: Don’t let your hopes get too high. The banks, C and F are secretly playing on the same team. Garth is right about the future of RE. But you must not let the doomers cloud your better judgement. Resist the temptation of overblowing the inevitable outcome. Buy a house anytime if it makes sense to you (considering your own unique financial situation and shelter needs). Don’t buy just because everybody else around you is bragging about it. Renting is, and will always be, a valid and honourable way to put a roof over your head. There’s more to living than a house. Go outside.

#139 Mark on 03.09.12 at 12:51 pm

OK Canada get ready. 4 years ago I stood before my local school board trying to warn them about the impending budgetary cuts that were mathematically certain. They asked me where are you gettting this info? Sure enough less than 1 year later 167,000 teachers fired but the union still supported Obama. Then they increased class size to 40 kids per teacher. Kids were sitting on the heaters due to lack of seating.
Then 2 days ago our state governor informed the teachers union that there is no money and their medical union benefits are null and void. They will have to go on state medical. Way to go teachers union you backed the wrong horse 2 times in a row and I have no doubt you will make the same mistake a third time. Teachers in Canada beware….you are expendable, your house will drop 25-70% in value, and this is not going to end quickly.

#140 Michelle on 03.09.12 at 1:01 pm

@ Bottoms_Up on 03.08.12 at 3:35 pm

#169 Michelle on 03.08.12 at 12:39 pm
——————————————
“ps. I couldn’t find anything from your link to indicate average income of doctors.”

Try reading the article again. It’s 5 pages long and breaks down different specialties and the difference between gross OHIP billings versus what doctors take home after paying for all their operating expenses:

http://www.canadianhealthcarenetwork.ca/physicians/life-travel/working-life/are-all-doctors-rich-21212

Michelle

#141 EdmontonJim on 03.09.12 at 1:02 pm

The dilemma that the Feds have I see is this.

– They have to keep the prime interest rate low or else the money supply will contract, and along with it the economy.

– As long as the prime rate is low, the banks will try to lend out as much money as they can in order to maximize profits.

– As long as the banks are lending out money like there’s no tommorrow, households will continue to borrow, rather than save.

– As personal debt levels swell, the sources of new potential debt become depleted faster than they can be created.

– Warning people about too much debt does not work.

– Limiting the amount of mortgage debt a person can take on may lead to a contraction in housing prices.

– A contraction in housing prices would likely lead to a housing shortage in key markets (like Toronto) as developers attempt to cut their losses.

– A housing shortage in a key market would contract the economy generally.

So the government has painted themselves into a corner. The only way out now is to end mortgage insurance for all detached homes, and leaving it in place for condos.

This will prevent the condo-bubble from collapsing completely, while stopping – and reversing – the speculation on single-family detatched homes. Essentially, a person could get a 5% down mortgage on a condo, but need 20% down for a house.

As single-family detached homes return to a sane price level, condo prices will also start to drop gradually.

Once everything is back to normal, then interest rates can rise without killing the economy, the housing industry, or the banks.

Is there any reason this wouldn’t work?

#142 Devore on 03.09.12 at 1:06 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/ghost-of-fannie-mae-haunts-canada-as-exposure-worsens-mortgages.html

Well, this is unsettling… CMHC risk up nine-fold in last 2 decades? Good thing there are so many taxpayers.

#143 Jimmy on 03.09.12 at 1:09 pm

re: #119

So basically some university student with super rich parents from overseas totally overbid the price because it wasn’t her money…LOL

That seller hit the jackpot thanks to the stupidity of a buyer.

#144 Cautious in Calgary on 03.09.12 at 1:35 pm

Hmm…the mainstream is finally starting to sit up and take notice.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/time-to-panic-about-the-housing-market.html

#145 nufio on 03.09.12 at 1:37 pm

maybe it was suzanne… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0

#146 Kris on 03.09.12 at 1:39 pm

How do these low rates come about?
Some friends tell me the following theory (feel free to agree or disagree):

The story goes, banks are able to offer lower rates while maintaing the same margin, bcuz they’re able to buy money cheaper than before – Why? Bcuz bond markets dropped their rates for C$ based on demand for our money. Banks get more elbow room, basically.

Even so, why would banks eat into their margins, you may ask. Why don’t they keep rates unchanged and enjoy HIGHER margins? It’s business philosophy – While the top 2-3 lenders may like the status quo, the laggers-behind (includes Credit Unions etc) have good reason to break ranks and aggressively pursue market share – It’s their chance to rock the boat in a market that’s traditionally carved up by the big banks.

If BMO is the absolute first lender to offer 2.99%, maybe they’re desperate to grab market share from rivals. Or maybe a Credit Union forced the hand of the big banks, and BMO was merely the first to react.

This theory also says low rates can survive as long as the bond markets permit – That’s something not in the government’s control, much less, the banks’ control.

Garth is 100% right, of course, that today’s 2.99% is only as good as your affordability 5yrs hence.

#147 Q on 03.09.12 at 1:40 pm

Garth, I don’t know how this will reproduce as it was sent as a jpeg. A distributor of mine in Vancouver sent it to me yesterday (with a chuckle)…no sub prime in Canada you say? Apparently these guys have emailed, postered poles and direct delivered this drivel, all across the lower mainland…ps/ Susan (TREB member) is an idiot!

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#148 Kris on 03.09.12 at 1:47 pm

#127 Houman
Buddy, let us know how things go with your home-sale. Practical experiences of people like yourself allow this blog to ‘keep it real’.

That said, I’m surprised at your question, cuz Garth’s posts the last 2 weeks spoke of line-ups outside model homes in precisely your town. Good luck.

#149 Debtfree on 03.09.12 at 2:10 pm

hot air verses gravity .spin verses reality .
http://www.google.ca/search?q=remax+hot+air+balloon&hl=en&prmd=imvns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=qUZaT9n9MampiQKb6_iUCw&sqi=2&ved=0CEAQsAQ&biw=1190&bih=580

#150 Houman on 03.09.12 at 2:11 pm

Kris,
That is true bud but people line up for new homes like crazy but when it comes to re-sale its not as hot.
Well my house is listed at 688k and market value is 740 give or take. It was listed Tuesday and so far we have had 18 showings. I was expecting 30-40 by now and close to 100 before monday!

I dunno but if we dont end up getting 740 or close to it I am not sure if I will let it go..

Anyway I will keep you all posted here is a link to the house:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11639489&PidKey=-1926019786

Its much better than it looks in the pictures:p

Hey, let’s have a GreaterFool auction! What would blog dogs bid for this luxurious, prestigious suburban palace? — Garth

#151 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.09.12 at 2:20 pm

Are Americans taking this 2012 thing for real?

Or, are they just scared of Obama being re-elected and taking their guns away?

Smith & Wesson, up 20%+ today:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:SWHC

#152 Doug in Victoria on 03.09.12 at 2:28 pm

#136 HDJ

2 blocks away Dockside Green is sitting 30% built on a field of gravel and nothing happening, a low income housing project sits idle next to that with rebar sticking into the air. I think they are gambling a little with Promontory, but I sure do like the winter here!

#153 triplenet on 03.09.12 at 2:37 pm

#91 Rabbi O’Reilly
Oy…….I love de smell O’ fried HAM in de mornin’.

An Irish Jew – who would have thought possible
An Irish Rabbi – impossible

….and you cannot eat pork!
unless you’re talking green ham and eggs.

#154 Bill Gable on 03.09.12 at 2:38 pm

I wouldn’t live in the area, number one.
The RE I used to own was on Sunnybrook off South Kingsway, near Bloor and Jane.
I wonder what that tiny brick joint is worth now?

My bid on this bung? What it’s really worth…about $119,000 – in the real world.

But, we live in fairyland now – think we have gone down a rabbit hole and the World has become a Madhatter tea party.

#155 eagle eyes on 03.09.12 at 2:42 pm

Hey, let’s have a GreaterFool auction! What would blog dogs bid for this luxurious, prestigious suburban palace? — Garth

Well, I will start this bidding. This nice home in suburbia for a family of 4 should fetch 4X an average family income. Considering property taxes, maintenance, living expenses, travelling costs, and still putting away some for 2 kid’s education costs, and retirement, I am still stretching but I’ll pay $400,000.00. Not a penny more.

#156 Rob M on 03.09.12 at 2:44 pm

$444,000 for the prestigious suburban palace.

#157 Extron on 03.09.12 at 2:45 pm

re:150 Houman

I bid one dollar

#158 bill on 03.09.12 at 2:45 pm

#41 Colin

You know what sucks about renting? When the owner decides to sell and has an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.

I call bullshit on that one .

#159 Extron on 03.09.12 at 2:47 pm

and I agree Susan ( treb) is an idiot

#160 sarpar on 03.09.12 at 2:51 pm

#150.. best of luck to you..
The market is crazy right now.. real estate agents are creating such a stir as well..they go alittle lower and anticpate a bidding war.
A home goes on the market on Tuesday.. but they don’t take offers until the following week..
We sold our home last year.. looking but haven’t seen anything that we truly want.. trying to hold off for the crash!!!!! Garth.. I wish someone can determine when this will happen!

#161 ANONYMOUS on 03.09.12 at 2:53 pm

I NEED SERIOUS ANSWERs TO A SERIOUS QUESTION:

– A University student I know just asked me if he can buy a house here in K-W. He is currently renting a house for $1,400 per month, living with his girlfriend, but he doesn’t have a job. He is employed part-time offering resume services and computer repair services, that’s how he earns his income, but he has no official statement of earning.

He told me he would like to buy a $200,000 house, a few kms outside of the city where its cheaper.

Will the banks let a 23 yr-old student with only $20,000 in savings and no verifiable income buy a house?

Does he have a pulse? — Garth

#162 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 3:02 pm

#142 Devore

CMHC is already starting to foreshadow the likelihood of insolvency (at worst case with conservative estimates) because they know they’ll need a bailout soon. This is how they start a dialog.

#163 JRoss on 03.09.12 at 3:09 pm

DA,

#109 and #110

Yes I see. In one post you have a stat you don’t like so you call it questionable. And in the very next post you have a stat you like so you cite it as evidence.

What is it that you are always spouting to us abouy confirmation bias again?

But the bigger point is the second stat does not show what you think it does.

Adjusted for inflation (there is that word again) the numbers YOU CITE indicate prices are off 4.5% YOY. Add taxes and closing costs and last year’s 5% down buyer is already underwater and likely sinking.

Thanks for confirming what GT has been telling us.

#164 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 3:10 pm

#129Form Man on 03.09.12 at 12:01 pm
#124 DA

I presume you realize Shiller is talking about U.S. housing ? Prices there are now back to 2002 levels…….

I do. What happens in America doesn’t necessarily stay in America. It will spill over into Canada. Seen this happen time and time again. When things go bad in the U.S. they spill over into eastern Canada, work their way west to Vancouver and then eventually Kelowna. But when things go well in the U. S. it immediately spills over to Canada and Kelowna at the same time – sometimes faster as we do have a number of Americans that buy into our area (ski resorts etc.). Like I say, seen it before and am confident it will happen that way again.

BTW there are some screamingly good deals up at Big White right now as the American buyers have been so absent for so long. But my hunch is that is about to change.

2012 the new 2002… This is not a departure from normal it is a return to it.

#138 debtified on 03.09.12 at 12:50 pm

As I posted a couple days ago to a comment much like yours; “Some do crosswords, others do Sukudo and yet others do logic puzzles. I enjoy the challenge of doing battle with Garth’s Blog Dawgs. And yes I must agree it’s more about me than it is them. I’m not always talking to them so much as using them as a sounding board which reflects back worthy challenge to my thoughts that causes me to think, investigate, learn and adapt. Where else could I be such an ass I need to be in order to garner such provocative response as I do with relative impunity. Time well wasted I’d say.”

#165 coastal on 03.09.12 at 3:13 pm

#152 & #136,

Not to forget that a mere block or so away from this massive condo project in Victoria will be the building of the new shipyard graving dock so they can accomodate the big shipyard contract.

Oh right, and they will be running shifts 24/7, lots of grinding tools, welding, toxic ship paint wafting through the air. Don’t forget to ask the agents to toss in the free gas masks and ear plugs. Fools and their money soon parted.

#166 Herb on 03.09.12 at 3:20 pm

#150 Houman,

why would you want to sell? It has all the granite, S/S and particleboard you’d ever want! Why, it’s practically in downtown King!

#167 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.09.12 at 3:20 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11639489&PidKey=-1926019786

Hey, let’s have a GreaterFool auction! What would blog dogs bid for this luxurious, prestigious suburban palace? — Garth

I would not bid, since that would set me up to lose at least $100k by this time next year.

#168 cramar on 03.09.12 at 3:21 pm

Susan’s is a disgrace to all realtors. She gives the impression that to be a successful in RE all you need is the mental, emotional, and expressive skills of a 13 year old.

#169 Cato on 03.09.12 at 3:28 pm

I guess can’t entirely blame the banks for wanting to get the last of the sheep in the pen before the barn door closes. Its just their nature, to expect otherwise is like putting a steak on the floor and expecting your dog not to eat it.

Things aren’t going to be very rosy in this fair country of ours for the next 2-5 years. We are already shedding jobs and our housing industry has yet to roll over, imagine what happens to employment picture when housing really slows. Couple that with an austerity budget by the feds (followed shortly by the provinces next year) and we have the recipe for some really hard times. Nothing on the scale of europe but a truly harsh wakeup call for alot of Canadians who aren’t prepared for it.

#170 Still Renting on 03.09.12 at 3:32 pm

Re: Comment #51:

Lower rates make money more valuable, not less. — Garth
—–
OMG, you’re kidding right? I Think you’re not.

Please explain how that works.

Because it costs less. — Garth

———————————-

I don’t understand the exchange quoted above. I thought if something costs less, that means it is less valuable. For example, a box of kleenex costs a lot less than a 1 carot diamond. And obviously it is far less valuable. I would assume the same applies to money. So how does costing less make money more valuable? Isn’t the price we set a reflection of the value we ascribe to something?

Zimbabwean dollars are super cheap. Does that make them more valuable?

Money is not a product, but a medium of exchange. When it costs less, you can buy more Kleenex. — Garth

#171 Ozy - We must launch new political parties in Canada on 03.09.12 at 3:42 pm

Attention: We must launch new political parties in Canada, because the current ones are useless or used by hidden interests.
Alternative: playing typical canadian-sneaky game hide, try to avoid reality at other’s expense, etc, guess what, you will suck it deep. Choose your side wiselly, you are poorer than you think!

#172 CYC on 03.09.12 at 3:58 pm

Garth,

Can you tell us what one has to make to be able to afford the $1.75M bung in Leaside? Please provide the assumptions used.

Thanks for your work.

#173 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 4:04 pm

#163JRoss on 03.09.12 at 3:09 pm

* * * DELETED * * * };-)

#174 Can'tbelieveit on 03.09.12 at 4:08 pm

http://pdfcast.org/pdf/re-advanceable-mortgage

Sub Prime is alive and well today.

“As a real estate investor, I saw things much differently. I then asked,’ are you telling me that I can pay interest and principal like any other mortgage and immediately I could take back the principal in a form of a line of credit, which would leave me with an INTEREST ONLY PAYMENT AT PRIME MINUS’. She answered yes. ”

All thanks to First Line (owned by CIBC).

#175 DM in C on 03.09.12 at 4:14 pm

#41 Colin

You know what sucks about renting? When the owner decides to sell and has an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.

I call bullshit on that one .

+++

Actually it’s true. It happens.

We were renting long term (or so we thought) a place — went on vacation to Orlando with the boys, and had our next door neighbor call us in a panic, saying there were people going through our house. Turns out, the owner decided it was time to try and sell it again, came in the house while we were away, without our permission, took pictures of everything, and put it up for sale.

Needless to say, we moved very soon after we got back, no notice. But keep in mind, we’ve both owned and bought, and it was FAR easier to move out of a rental than try to sell a house that was a buyer-beware POS we naively bought.

All told, renting is easier on our minds — and quickly filling our bank accounts. YMMV

Your owner broke the law. Hope you took action. — Garth

#176 Ozy - ISDA statements on Greece "deal" on 03.09.12 at 4:17 pm

http://www.isda.org/dc/view.asp?issuenum=2012030901

#177 betamax on 03.09.12 at 4:18 pm

#29 not 1st: “renting DOES suck.”

I’ve owned and rented, and renting rocks. My current place and the previous place were both near-new buildings, modern and clean.

Funny thing, in both places, there are elements of construction that are substandard — despite the stainless and granite. In each, I could see assessments looming and gave thanks that I hadn’t bought the place.

#178 Bigrider on 03.09.12 at 4:21 pm

Garth’s response to Bigrider at #103- “but all your friends are Italians”

All of the contacts I have building these suburban palaces are Italian, that’s for sure, but my friends are varied.

What is consistent is they all believe houses have nowhere to go but to appreciate..you know..immigration, Toronto is a safe spot to invest, the next New York, commodities, our #1 banks, not enough land, most fresh water, cleanest safeset city, Etc Etc.

#179 Ret on 03.09.12 at 4:27 pm

Re #119, #143
Is this what is really happening in Willowdale? Lots worth $1M and $2M homes? Have we got any “boots on the ground” reports from non-RE agents in Willowdale?

Something about this whole story doesn’t fly. So I line up to pay $1.18M for a lot, another $6-750,000 for bricks, pot lights etc. and I’ll be walking over to catch the subway every day with the few haves and many have nots of T.O.? No thanks.

An all cash university student from China you say? If true, they could live better for less in many other countries other than Canada. Heck, if I had $2M cash, I’d be outta here myself.

Me thinks, that ultimately, CMHC will be backing a loan for this sale. Please don’t tell me that she got a Canada Student Loan as well. That would be the icing on the cake.

#180 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.09.12 at 4:28 pm


Grandfathers don’t know everything (cont. from yesterday)!

Hunter was four years old and was staying with his grandfather for a few days.

He’d been playing outside with the other kids, when he came into the house and asked,

‘Grandpa, what’s that called when two people sleep in the same bedroom and one is on top of the other?’

His Grandpa was a little taken aback, but he decided to tell him the truth.

‘Well, Hunter, it’s called sexual intercourse.’

‘Oh,’ Hunter said, ‘OK,’ and went back outside to play with the other kids.

A few minutes later he came back in and said angrily,

‘Grandpa, it isn’t called sexual intercourse. It’s called bunk beds. And Jimmy’s mom wants to talk to you.’
*
#150 Houman — “Hey, let’s have a GreaterFool auction! What would blog dogs bid for this luxurious, prestigious suburban palace? — Garth”

Walmart Days! $1.99! 10 year warranty incl.! Any more is a waste.

#151 T.O. Bubble Boy — “Or, are they just scared of Obama being re-elected and taking their guns away?” — Yes.

#181 Form Man on 03.09.12 at 4:35 pm

#164 DA

attempting to find logic in your comments is futile.

In 2002 the Canadian dollar was worth about .65 cents U.S., and their houses were worth more than ours. It seems a bit of a stretch to assume they will buy in Canada now that our houses are worth twice theirs and the dollar is at par.

Secondly, the U.S. housing market in peaked in 2006. Canada’s is peaking now. Reason would tell us that it is likely we have 6 years of decline ahead of us……….

We were at Big White a couple of weeks ago. The market there is dead, and will remain a shambles for a few years yet. We made some good money building hotels and condos in BC ski resorts in the 1990’s. I would not go near them now.

#182 Pound Puppy on 03.09.12 at 4:38 pm

#12 Smoking Man

Drove by billboard this past Tuesday it read “Luxury Homes $84 a Square foot”

Have fun!!

#183 Kip on 03.09.12 at 4:42 pm

“It can’t be all that bad, the morning news in GTA is saying 110,000 people will fly out of Pearson to points south for March break in one day. For people with no money to even pay their bills we sure are living large!

That’s 110,000 out of 6,000,000. Less than 2%. Your point? — Garth”

The point is that you would have people think we are all house poor bank slaves in the GTA but I live here and I don’t see that. I see people working, paying bills, buying cars, vacations etc. In other words, living. Things are not as bad in GTA as you make them out to be.

Consumption does not mean there is income behind it. The numbers clearly show debt is rising far faster than earnings. Your conclusion that this is healthy and sustainable is likely wrong. — Garth

#184 Kip on 03.09.12 at 4:45 pm

Sorry for the double post, stupid iPhone.

#185 disciple on 03.09.12 at 4:45 pm

#135 Herb… ridicule is the first step. Don’t encourage me, I’m trying to cut down… too many shills here, but that’s a compliment to the host and to the importance of his work.

#186 poco on 03.09.12 at 5:02 pm

There have been less listings this month in the Tri cities. Looks like a spring swing. I’ve seen many sale signs on sfh but condos are still sitting unless the price is reduced. I will be posting some distressed condos as soon as I pull up the details on them.

#187 Kilby on 03.09.12 at 5:12 pm

At question period at the Toronto Island tunnel announcement today Stephen Harpler warned Canadians against overextending themselves with big mortgages, saying that interest rates are as low as they will get and will have to rise at some time.

Is this a warning for the budget at the end of the month or just more warnings that F usually makes?

#188 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.09.12 at 5:13 pm

Anyone been to south end of 2 Road bridge in Richman recently. Incredible development which will sell out fast. Spectacular location. Low interest rates might help some Canadians get in on the once in a lifetime deal. This is very World Class and exclusive so don’t be suprised if bidding wars break out

#189 Kevin on 03.09.12 at 5:17 pm

Another graph that shows that debt is the problem.

Here is the growth in total labour income for Canadians and personal loans ( does not include mortgages) held by chartered banks. Indexed to 2000.

http://tinyurl.com/7rwklpe

#190 Gypsy Kid on 03.09.12 at 5:18 pm

#101; People started cheating to accomodate unlimited greed and a hellish real estate bubble happened and priced alot of people out of the country they were born in.

Yes. And I suppose people who were born in this country never cheated and were/are/will be always completely honest. Do you now see that this bubble has priced out a lot of new Canadians as well??? You’re an i___t.

#191 Van guy on 03.09.12 at 5:53 pm

#188 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.09.12 at 5:13 pm

You should buy then. Low rates man. Jump all over it. I bet you just post here to get a reaction. You know that if realtors like the Sethi’s say its dead out there. No need to be silly like you.

#192 Waiting on the sideline on 03.09.12 at 5:59 pm

Mortgage wars: 2.99% for 4 and 5 years. What is that?

Top 5 crown banks are also commercial entities and are looking for every possible way to make money (Fed. Govt. is also benifited from this). It is not their “Corporate Social Responsibility” to inform the borower that they might be at rist if they take money now in a “Sellers” market when all indicators are showing “Red alert”.

I understand their point.

“But the rate war appears to be at odds with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney concerns about rising Canadian household debt levels”- says Toronto Star.

We are in a “Market Economy- not in a “Administrative-Command Economy”. So the Central Bank can’t stop the commercial banks to review their Mortgage rate policy. Mr. Carney does not want to increase ‘Overnight Rate” as that may hit Export oriented manufacturers and overall economy of the country.

That I understand.

But why Fed. Government is not caring of the middleclass who barely listen to Mr. F’s warning regarding rate increase and personal debt. They can and should step in and :
1. Prevent CMHC to insure high risk loan
2. Push the bar up (make 10-15% downpayment)
3. Limit the insurable amount of loan (Let the bank take some risk, partially, as they are pushing people to borrow money). (It is not acceptable and ethical to make money under Govt. umbrella (CMHC)

I understand it is a great source of revinue for Government (All levels) and all others (construction, lawyears, inspectors, brokers and agents) related to real estate.

I DO NOT understand why PM and FM and the cabinet of ministers do not think they have to protect people from financial/ housing crash (not all the citizens of this country are trained and educated to be good financial analyst).

It is a crime not to step in and do what ever it required to stop this madness. Market will be corrected but lot of people (who can’t really assess the risk) will suffer and the feds can prevent it.

Is it not their moral/ethical/Goventmant responsibility to protect and guide its people from financial turmoil?

Hope to see some real and effective steps on March 29 from Mr. F to take the situation under control (not just to warn people)

#193 Increasing that 1% on 03.09.12 at 6:04 pm

re#20. smoking man ‘That’s cool that you know me…I don’t know me’
lol (to [try to] clarify, JUsT in case; I was referring to your previously posted devaluing of formal education /schooling. So, having “high levels of ed’n” would be irrelevant…with that viewpoint.. in my example)
Of course it’s great that you can, and have for this long, done what you have.
Btw, milk thistle Is supposed to help, as ‘timing is everything’ mentioned, Pau d’arco too?

#194 Westernman on 03.09.12 at 6:13 pm

Waiting on the [email protected]#192,
You seem confused, after all using the words moral, ethical and goverment in one sentence indicates to me you need a quick lesson in reality so I’ll just help with your real-world education…
Governments have four main goals…
1. Line their pockets
2. Punish their enemies
3. Reward their friends
4. Get re-elected and repeat cycle
There… now you know what goverments’ responsiblities are.

#195 Canadian Watchdog on 03.09.12 at 6:31 pm

Waiting on the [email protected]#192

I’ll agree with Westernman’s comments. It will never end until enough people get burned and start voting with their feet. Read history.

#196 jess on 03.09.12 at 6:45 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/09/banks-foreclosing-on-u-s-churches-in-record-numbers/

lender triggered
anti slavery church founded in 1818 became a slave to the balloon mortgage!

#197 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 7:08 pm

You appear to be taking my comments out of context.

Americans were buying Big White Ski Resort properties a lot more recently than 2002 when the Canadian dollar was lower. American purchases here are mostly recreational not so much, if at all, residential.

The Canadian market peaked in early 2008 not long after the US market did in 2006. We say a decline in sales volumes quickly there-after followed by a modest drop in prices. I think if you look closely at both the US and the Canadian markets you will find that in both there are markets which remained quite healthy the whole time since then. The “if it bleeds it leads” mentality tends to prevail and not too often do you hear of the strong markets as people generally believe what they want to believe ignoring most of that contrary information that might be presented to them. It’s practically impossible to convince people to believe what they don’t want to believe let alone perpetuate the possibility that it might be real.

Yes the Big White Ski Resort market is quite dead right now. Might be a GREAT buying opportunity. I hate quoting the cliché phrase “buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying” but… Time will tell.

BTW, for what it’s worth… I am seeing a lot of renewed confidence in the markets right now. Believe it or not. Quite frankly, despite your anticipated inclination to nit-pick it to death pointing out even the most minute of differences, I’m thinkin’ this does feel a lot like 2002. Ya it’s a gut instinct thing. We’ll see how that works out for me in due time just as well see how it works out for you and your fellow bears.

#198 jess on 03.09.12 at 7:09 pm

Will seniors thinking of retiring in the warmer American states think twice if they are feeling insecure regarding medical trip insurance ?

Marketplace exposes an industry that’s set up to fail — convoluted medical questionnaires that can trip people up, travel agents on hidden camera giving dangerous advice, and travellers left on the hook for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Watch what happens when Erica Johnson goes looking for answers from a multi-million dollar industry that “regrets your claim is denied

#199 patiently waiting on 03.09.12 at 7:24 pm

187 Kilby

At question period at the Toronto Island tunnel announcement today Stephen Harpler warned Canadians against overextending themselves with big mortgages, saying that interest rates are as low as they will get and will have to rise at some time.

Is this a warning for the budget at the end of the month or just more warnings that F usually makes?
____________________________________________

Harper et al are just covering their arses . . . blah blah blah . . . more jawboning as Canadians sink deeper into the debt sinkhole provided so generously by the big banks . . . when she eventually blows, they will hide behing these “I told you so” statements . . . unfortunately it’s too late to stop the coming bubble bursting, so they’re thinking why not kick the can down the road for as long as we can, and then claim immunity because “we tried to warn them” . . .

#200 bluethunder on 03.09.12 at 7:58 pm

108 $$$BPOE$$$http:

Vancouver will be rubble and shattered glass and Richmond will be underwater.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Monster+earthquake+threat+looms+over+coastal+communities/6279087/story.html

#201 Vancouver Realtor Darren – “Here it is Dead. Dead. Dead. March is on pace to have sales down 30% over same month last year.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 03.09.12 at 8:01 pm

[…] “Here it is dead. Dead. Dead. Remember 2008? It was the year where the spring never came, listings soared and sales evaporated. Vancouver is really trending down that 2008 line right now but stats in all areas are really worse than 2008. March is on pace to have sales down 30% at least over same month last year.” – Vancouver Realtor ‘Darren’, as quoted at greaterfool.ca 8 Mar 2012 […]

#202 OZY Response to #192 Waiting on the sideline on 03.09.12 at 8:10 pm

The ansswer is: Because the governments do not represent the interest of the guys like you and me, they sold us to the corporate world to take 10 skins out of our back, don’t hold your breath for the puppets to so anything good for regular guys, instead assume the WORST, and you will end-up ahead.

#203 TRT on 03.09.12 at 8:21 pm

The three classes of people in the near future:

1. Working (no barriers to entry) – labour pool
2. Working (Barriers to entry) – MD’s etc.
3. Non-Working – own assets and ‘grow’ their money.

Regarding #2, UBC Medical school seems to be playing favorites. Lots of parents doing what they can to get their kids in whether it means handing out cash or getting MLA’s to write letters.

Interestingly, the Dean easily got his daughter into the school….read the comments. We all know what really goes on ;)

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2012/03/09/competition-for-med-school-spots-means-parents-desperate-to-see-their-kids-get-in-are-trying-everything-but-not-always-succeeding/

#204 Static on 03.09.12 at 8:23 pm

AKA DA can also be found on Castanet, a kelown chat room gallary, spouting off about RE. He hasn’t done it for a while because he is still licking his wounds from the beatings he’s gotten. Yes, AKA DA lives in a dreamworld.

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=15451

Here he is Devils Advocate.

#205 Junius on 03.09.12 at 8:26 pm

#185 Disciple,

Who is encouraging you? You are like the religious freaks who come door to door recruiting for the Church of “What’s Happening Now.” Go away.

#206 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.09.12 at 8:36 pm


4Closures on Churches surge Esy to understand why the Vatican is pushing for a world bank, to let someone else pay their bills; Planting the seeds of mass and hyperinflation; Bad Money after Bad Money Repaying loans with cotton wool; Renault bailout Courtesy US taxpayers; MF Global Here it is! Steal people’s money and receive bonuses! Snow Job Something to do with business; The Black Sheep of the OK Corral are global leaders; Devastated “The money-junkies have infected Canada now!” wrh.com;
*
Syria Triple alliance gets going; BP Did it make the Macondo Reservoir larger? Iran – Turkey Guess who is arming the Turkish rebels, and driving a wedge between the two countries? War on the Potomac Not on Iran, on citizens and yes, Okiller has given himself these rights; Insanity Bubble The leaders keep says we’re nuts; 3:17 clip US invents enemies to keep the war machine going; Impeach “The president of the United States is sworn to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution, but instead Mr. Obama has trampled upon the letter as well as the spirit of this document meant to define the perimeters of federal power.”; Worms 4 Lunch Plenty of them on the ocean bed, and Road Salt and Pink Goo Appies for the worms! Fukushima Speculation on how big the explosion was; 3:25 clip 8mm film of the 1986 Challenger explosion.

#207 Shane on 03.09.12 at 8:47 pm

Garth, I’m watching CBC news and CHMC are seeing levels of housing debt compared to the USA from 2008 and they also said for CHMC to be affected by the housing down turn the housing market would have to drop 25 percent and unemployment would have to be 13 percent.

Shane

Who is ‘they’? — Garth

#208 Soper Eats Babies on 03.09.12 at 8:49 pm

#41 Colin

“You know what sucks about renting? When the owner decides to sell and has an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.”

_______

You know what sucks about owning? When you decide to sell and have an open house and you have to let random strangers walk through your home.

#209 dd on 03.09.12 at 8:54 pm

Great Jobs report in the US …. And gold goes up. Works against your theories ….

Maybe not all is rosey.

Gold is now correlated to equities. Just another commodity. — Garth

#210 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 9:26 pm

#204Static on 03.09.12 at 8:23 pm
AKA DA can also be found on Castanet, a kelown chat room gallary, spouting off about RE. He hasn’t done it for a while because he is still licking his wounds from the beatings he’s gotten. Yes, AKA DA lives in a dreamworld.

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=15451

Here he is Devils Advocate.

NEWSFLASH!!! I don’t think so. But, thanks for bringing our attention to it. For those who doubt that I too was once a bear take a perusal of those Castanet Forums and you will see that once I too was as gloomy as you.

That I am what I am now, four years later, ought to tell you something. What I will tell you is I am a lot better off and happier for it.

#211 comfortably numb on 03.09.12 at 9:36 pm

DA

So we should rush out and buy real estate based on your “gut instinct”, “hunch” and ” I got a feeling”. Exactly what prestigious Business School did you get your degree from ?

#212 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 9:58 pm

#211comfortably numb on 03.09.12 at 9:36 pm
DA

So we should rush out and buy real estate based on your “gut instinct”, “hunch” and ” I got a feeling”. Exactly what prestigious Business School did you get your degree from ?

I have not nor ever would I tell someone to buy or not to buy real estate. That is not my job. My job is to help gather the facts that my clients can make informed decisions for themselves.

My instincts are not infallible. I have merely found over the years that they tend to be right far more often than they are wrong. The wrong more often comes about when I do not listen to my instincts.

If I knew I was right all the time without waiver I would tell people what I thought they ought to do. But there is no margin of error small enough for me to give that advice to another so you can trust that I won’t because not my knowledge, education, experience nor my instincts are infallible.

Aside from occasionally suggesting people adopt a more positive disposition I don’t believe you would ever find evidence of me contravening my statements above.

#213 Static on 03.09.12 at 10:06 pm

AKA DA “That I am what I am now, four years later, ought to tell you something. What I will tell you is I am a lot better off and happier for it.”

Sure you are. OK RE is taking a beating. You still live in a dream world.

#214 };-) aka DA on 03.09.12 at 10:12 pm

211 comfortably numb

Don’t underestimate the power of instincts. Instincts are your counsel. If your counsel is lacking good instincts will compell you to seek more. At some point you must make a decision on your own. Indecision is a decision.

We all rely on our instincts some are just more cognative of it’s counsel than others. Others lack the confidence to make a decision which is a decision in itself.

Time waits for no man. You miss 100% of the shots you do not take. If you are not occassionally failing you are not trying hard enough. Frozen in fear will get you nowhere.

Get in touch with and trust your instincts. Seriously.

Your instincts not mine.

#215 Static on 03.09.12 at 10:13 pm

AKA DA is of the ethical Realtor camp. So DA, how could this possibly be 2002 again? Should interest rates not be much higher which would eat away at the function of leverage? Function of leverage is the only reason prices are where they are. It is mathematically impossible for prices to increase faster than wages at this point.

#216 The Thing in the Basement on 03.10.12 at 12:19 am

203 TRT – though some of the examples seem extreme, the general trend is nothing new. Asmissions to medical school are becoming even more political. The “qualfications” they look for, such as volunteer work or world travel often mean the family is well-off or connected. Often one or both parents are……doctors!

#217 Vancouver Realtor Darren – “Here it is Dead. Dead. Dead. March is on pace to have sales down 30% over same month last year.” on 03.10.12 at 2:57 am

[…] “Here it is dead. Dead. Dead. Remember 2008? It was the year where the spring never came, listings soared and sales evaporated. Vancouver is really trending down that 2008 line right now but stats in all areas are really worse than 2008. March is on pace to have sales down 30% at least over same month last year.” – Vancouver Realtor ‘Darren’, as quoted at greaterfool.ca 8 Mar 2012 […]

#218 ANONYMOUS on 03.10.12 at 1:07 pm

I am a renter and I have my investments in ETFs / stocks.

– I try to get the highest returns possible, currently getting about 18% – 24% per year returns annually, but compared to the 30% to 50% per year returns that are going on in the housing markets I feel as if I am walk up a down-wards moving escalator.

People keep telling me that its impossible to expect more than 4% to 8% from equities, but its perfectly okay to expect 25% to 35% per year returns from homes because that is “Where the heart is.”

So I’ve invested in some REITS and I hope that these REITS will give me similar 35% to 80% returns per year on my investments.

Does this sound familiar to anyone here?

Ah, what housing market is giving 50% returns? — Garth

#219 Colin on 03.10.12 at 3:36 pm

#87 Devore

I’ve never heard of an open house at a tenanted property. Grow a spine?

#158 bill

I call bullshit on that one .

We are in the basement suite.

#220 ozy - After the mortgage war is over, are we going to put the banks CEOs in jail? on 03.10.12 at 6:38 pm

Today QUIZ:

Once the house of cards crashes by June, here are the choices we’ll have by year-end:

1.Put the banks CEOs in jail
2.Bail the 5 too big to let bankrupt banks
3.Bail the 50 billion bankrupt CHMC by printing currency (look at 1 USD to buy 2 CAD)
4.Sell at a 25% loss and leave the county and the mess behind forever

Pls vote

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/09/canadas-big-five-banks-declare-mortgage-war/

#221 C on 03.10.12 at 7:37 pm

DELETED

#222 Oakville Owner on 03.10.12 at 7:52 pm

Garth/Dogs….

Is it now time to lock in the prime -.80% (2.20%) mortgage for the 4yr 2.99% or 10yr 3.99%?

I have approximately 14 yrs left to go and will not be moving for the next 25yrs.

Thanks for your thoughts.

That sounds boring. — Garth

#223 Shane on 03.10.12 at 11:39 pm

Garth, when the housing markets corrects does the commercial market go down with it?

Shane

No. — Garth

#224 NoName on 03.11.12 at 12:06 pm

Steve Keen professor of economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney, talks about the Australian economy and the housing sector bubble bursting in Australia, Canada, UK and Hong Kong.
23 min long

http://goo.gl/W5Pj2

#225 disciple on 03.11.12 at 7:07 pm

#205 Junius, that’s the worst analogy of all time. Suck you. Take yourself too seriously, much? I’ve already exposed you. But if you feel the need to further engage me, I’m all game.