Could it be? At least a year early, there’s evidence the US housing market’s rebounding. This is not good news.
Not good for the doomers, since it comes about the same time the Dow flirts with the 13,000 mark, erasing the bitter residue of the financial crisis. With unemployment coming down, Obama facing no credible opposition in November and corporate profits chugging on, it looks like 2013 may be the year the American phoenix rises. Time to sell your gold, dudes. Also the water-packed tuna, bulk toilet paper, ammo and those quadruple bear ETFs which are about to chew your butt off.
Also not good news for Canadian real estate, for a reason I’ll get to in a moment.
So here’s the news: Americans signed more contracts to buy houses last month than at any time in the last two years – back when the government was paying people to jump into real estate. Of course, US homes are cheap. They’ve dropped in price by a third, at the same time mortgage rates have sunk and affordability is at the highest level. Compared to what we’re putting up with, the market to our south is a dream.
For example, here’s what $1.5 million buys in a part of Toronto 40 minutes (by subway) north of downtown:
Here’s what $1.5 million buys in a top neighbourhood in Dallas. (BTW, the property taxes are deductible from taxable income. So is mortgage interest. Oh yeah, and there’s no state income tax. Or HST.)
Is this even the same universe? How were Canadians ever talked into placing such absurd valuations on such pieces of junk? And what drug is it (greed, vanity) making them believe a greater fool will always covet what they have?
Anyway, kiss the status quo. She’s about to split. The pendulum is swinging back into equilibrium, as I told you would happen over a year ago. Those ringing words were, “Sell Canada, Buy America.” Since the GFC it’s been clear Canadian real estate was gaseous, inflated, lionized and nasty. At the same time, US housing was massively oversold and horribly underloved. Houses there fell by a third. Here they rose by half.
Now the average American home sells for $173,000, and in Canada it costs $348,178 – exactly double. Remember this moment. It shall not last.
Once it becomes apparent the US housing market is eating through its shadow inventory, that jobs are coming back and prices will never be this cheap again, the rebound in sales and values could be startling. For a time, the Fed will be loving it, but ever mindful boom can turn into bubble, and back into bust. So rock-bottom mortgage rates will not survive long. The normalization of interest rates will take place right alongside the real estate renaissance in places like southern California and Florida.
As the pendulum swung too far into the US deflation zone, so it careened into gasbag territory in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and that flat bit inbetween. Deluded and house horny, egged on by cheap rates and the Property Virgin goddess’s tube tops, Canadians went on a credit binge of Biblical props. Suddenly we lusted for 400-square-foot condos in a country which is 94% empty, and $1.5 million teardowns in oily North York.
There is no doubt this will change, ironically as the American market revives. The reasons should be clear – too much debt, falling demand, an aging population and (especially) rising rates. The Bank of Canada has been gnawing its haunches in frustration, unable to jack the cost of money and curtail this asset inflation because of a weak economy. We are not long from those conditions ending.
If this US rebound is real, coming on the heels of a serious drop in unemployment, then it’s a pivotal thing. Americans put residential real estate at the heart of their personal net worth. Just like us. It blew up and gutted the middle class. Finally, the inklings of change.
If you believed that the last three years in Canada were normal, you won’t for long.
278 comments ↓
With Fiera/Scepter/Natcan in the news today I took a look at their products.
HIT.UN – FIERA HIGH INCOME TRUST UNITS is yielding 15%??
Price is 12.88, monthly payout is solidly .16.
Sheesh.
First!!
I am first
8:53 EST was the post time in my mind tonight. It was very close.
Anyway, folks, as long as TLT.US (long bond ETF) is trading above 115 I’m remaining overweight bond fund in my work RSP (we’re limited between few dozen funds).
Wake me up when it falls to 100, and I’ll pile into equities.
You may recall, during all stock market major bull phases TLT was solidly below 100. Not today. And yield-to-maturity sucks. Hence, more cap gains forthcoming?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83423965598
Not sure if the US is reporting their employment figures properly. Boomers that have retired and people that have been out of a job for more than a year fall off the chart. Also, what new jobs have been created? With the tight lending in the US, the newly created jobs would have to be well paying to qualify for a mortgage right?
We moved into our Montreal neighborhood June 2009. We almost purchased a home selling for 189K. It’s value now? 300K. Yes, all this in just the last few years. As Garth said, these last three have been abnormal.
Type on, Garth. Type on.
What has happened in the Canadian RE market and what is happening (we hope) in the US economy are not obviously linked.
A healthier US economy is good news for the Canadian economy but not nearly good enough news to keep the gas in the bubbles. But what a resurgent US economy may very well do is allow interest rates in the US (and therefore Canada) to float back up to normal. And that will not be welcome news at Mr. and Mrs. 97% advanced house.
My dog walk index here in the leafiest suburb in Victoria (and, yes thank you, the daffs are up and our camelias are blooming – despite it being bloody cold) added two more lovely houses this past week. A reno gone wild for 3.9 and a rather modest bung for 1.2.
As Sponge Bob Squarepants would say, “Good luck with that”.
Total sales on the dog walk index since Jan 1…well, er, zero.
Garth,
Do you think this is the bottom for US real estate or just a pause before it drops another 10-15%?
HIT.UN
also has debt cash of 7k… not a lot but it says something.
That lot is 60×130 and it looks like it is located 2 min walk between both the subway line and one of the best schools in Toronto. The land value itself would easy cost over a million. Not that surprising for the price and should be priced for a bidding war. Prices in that part of the map should remain very sticky.
Yes, weirdly, many Canadians are right now of the belief that Carney has sole control over the interest rates in Canada, and that he will never raise them because of the damage it would cause to the Canadian economy, and Canadians. What the hell?……..when did this perverted nonsense become a common belief among the masses? The question is not and never has been when interest rates will go up,the question has only been…..when? Now, even last week, F himself, said rates can only go up. The whole point is, and to me……extremely important……..being vulnerable to the damage rising rates can cause, is akin to putting ones gonads in a vise, and giving someone else the handle……..no thanks, not me:)……….ps…….interest rates are part and parcel of a global economy.
Oil will be the catalyst for a turning DOW.
With the middle class toasted, the only buyers are buying foreclosures in the USA. The banks dont want to put any other shadow inventory foreclosures on the market as they are scared sh*tless!
Read this again:
What the dramatic declines in housing inventories could be signaling now!
http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/9944/Housing
Maybe a handful of foreigners like in Canada.
Debt is a killer, kills families, kills countries and history points to war! War at the fuel pumps that is!
I read the two examples. Makes me wonder why anyone bothers to buy up here. What the heck makes that pile in TO worth that kind of cash?
It’s too late for me, I am an about to be screwed (probably) boomer. If I was 20 years younger, in this type of economic situation, I would very seriously be checking out a move south.
Which one of the Amazons is responsible for “surfing” the net looking for your post pictures? She must have good search skills!!
5th?
Larry Berman said today more Americans just leaving the workforce, giving up their search for a job. No significant job growth?
243,000 more jobs last month alone. Larry who? — Garth
A Rare Treat, A sober Smoking Man post.
Ok Fans 10% and foes. 90%
I got it figured out
Why did the Canadian Real estate market not tank like the USA’s , Apart from wealthy boomers helping out there kids and culture of a rapidly growing supply of immigrants hell bent on ownership, there was something missing I could not put my finger on it. Why them (usa) not us(Can). Similar not the same.
Well I put my finger on it.
The fuel that feeds the RE machine is first time buyers, with out them, like sugar in the gas tank, the car dies. A obedience certificate cost way more in the USA than it does in Canada.
Look at this chart of student debt in the usa, hence the first time buyer fuel goes to the dreaded for profit educational industrial complex. That machine took all the loot.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/credit%20bubble.jpg
And enjoy the read of why university sucks right here.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-college
Sample of the story
#1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent.
If I was young (screw school) I would start a business in the food supply industry.
20th
Waaaaa haaaaa haaaa haaa ha ha ha
Waaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha..
Think prices are high in your neck of the woods… take a look at Fort McMurray.
On the rebound in the U.S. I can confirm that my real estate contacts there are confirming it is happening. They’ve been saying so since the beginning of the year.
Spin it however you want it’s all good… alllllll goooood.
We ain’t outta the woods yet and I’m not about to say to anyone “I told you so” because I didn’t. I deal in today not tomorrow or yesterday. But I really do have to question anyone who thinks were going to fall off the edge from here on in.
};-)
Hi Garth
I am not sure if I agree with your assessment on the impact on the canadian real estate from a stronger and improving american economy.
If rates rises, due to the american economy improving, it will do so very slowly and therefore this will not cause any shock to the real estate industry.
Also, with american economy improving, this will lead to a stronger canadian economy and any weakness due to the higher rates in the real estate sector will be offset by the job creation from the stronger economy.
Yes!!! Furst again!!! Luvin it :)
Let’s say you had 5million in the bank, would you buy that place?Didn’t think so.so why would anyone go into debt for it?
Ya, but the dump in Toronto has snow!
How would the Dallas homeowners feel about not having to shovel a driveway?
Garth, your entire thesis tonight hangs on a pretty big IF. IF this is the US recovery.
Now I know that American companies are closing Canadian offices and moving to states where housing and Labour costs are cheaper, but a few thousand jobs is hardly a recovery.
The gap between US/CDN home prices must be close to a historic high.
It is logical to assume that over the next 5 years, the USA will outperform
Canada in terms of average housing prices.
However, I don’t believe there will be a quick crash in Canadan prices.
It is more likely to be a stagnant market followed by moderate declines ( 0-5%) per year.
The government can do its part by reducing the insurance for new mortgages, & increasing minimum down payments required.
Stevenson #10
Out of work realtor Stevenson who ia worried about the current housing crash in the GTA which becomes more obvious everyday. Another worried realtor. Why else would worked realtors post here in a panic?
no comparison. Dallas house $20 000 a year property tax, 50 min drive to downtown (no traffic). Toronto home $6000 a year property tax with amenities nearby. Take that same house 50 min drive to the east of toronto (no traffic) and find it for about a million with cheaper property tax.
Only difference: Toronto house is a teardown. So add another $600,000. Then let’s see what the taxes are. — Garth
As more jobs head back to the US and credit starts drying up in Canada you can see why the stall in sales and price drops have started. Maxed out home owners can no longer borrow from their HELOC which allowed tens of thousands to live a lie. Now that lie/debt is due and many need to sell before they go bankrupt. Funny how many realtors post on garths blog should indicate just how desperate these realtors have become and the weakness in the housing market. If times were good realtors wouldn’t be here. Look out below.
#216 };-) aka DA on 02.27.12 at 10:18 pm
#214SaggyBottomBoomer & #202 Kilby
A collection of guidelines for Internet communications, includes a warning to be especially careful with the use of sarcasm as it “may not travel well”.
You Okanaganites are so conservative,what guidelines do you subscribe to?
to: #6 Uh Oh Canada:
you said that the price of a house in your neighborhood went from 189k in 2009 to over 300 K now. Are you trying to say that it is REALISTIC and NORMAL to EXPECT that home prices will rise by an average of 58% every 2 to 3 years?
Where can an AVERAGE Canadian earn 25% per year on their investment in anything other than houses?
TELL ME WHERE?
But with the US economy recovering, it should have some knock-on effects on Canadian economy too. Of course, there will be some winners and losers, but overall the canadian impending downturn in house prices can be managed/mitigated.
The piper (indebted idiots) will continue to play the music because the payers will continue to provide cheap money,
Garth… US is indeed going down. It’s the printing press of the fed that prevents the free fall. Since US will get deeper in doo-doo everybody else will go even deeper.
Stick to Canada dude, the story you know best.
And put some more babes on line.
I like those :)
http://watch.bnn.ca/the-street/february-2012/the-street-february-23-2012/#clip624734
the chinese investors.
comments any one?
Sales are improving this month over Jan for REBGV. But listings are at 15,000 and growing. HAM areas are still flooded but Van east not so much. Realtor Ian Watt has admitted on YouTube that he sees the market declining rather that going up. But wouldn’t answer if Van was in a bubble.
The regime of regressive tax hikes is killing the average guy. These taxes may be nickels and dimes to the wealthy civil servants who get COLA clauses as often as Chritmas presents…but to the majority of people this facade of ‘nessesity’ is driving people to drink.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+residents+face+cent+property+hike/6218068/story.html
Lets face it, the average homeowner has squat at the end of the month, Seniors are begging and kids are hungry…thats the truth..whether you like it or not. These people are barely hanging on to the house they bought forty years ago and have seen zero increases in income over the past twenty. For the papers to be full of greedy overbeariing demands from the already coddled rich is pathetic.
Nice Picture!!
Now, if only the handle bar was turned 90 degrees while in mid air. Believe me, it happened on a bigger jump :S
Then it really really doesn’t end well.
Good post Garth, although I don’t necessarily agree that the BLS is reporting the proper employment numbers. The way I see it, revenue doesn’t lie.
A quick look at the most recent daily treasury statement (page 2, table IV) https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=12022400.pdf we see that in the fiscal U.S. year-to-date $725.83 billion were withheld in income and employment taxes.
Comparing these numbers to the corresponding daily treasury statement from a year earlier https://fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=a&fname=11022400.pdf and we see that by that point $717.20 billion had been withheld. So we are told that although employment has significantly improved from a year ago in the U.S., the difference in all those extra hundreds of thousands of jobs in government tax revenues so far in the current fiscal year result in merely $8.00 billion in extra taxes? Something seems off.
And if you go back and compare some of the dates from earlier January 2012 to the equivalent dates in January 2011 (although January 2012 had that over 200K jobs creation beat apparently), more taxes had been withheld in 2011 than in 2012 (look at January 10th of both years for example). Have a look for yourself: https://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html
I’m not denying that jobs are being created in the U.S., it’s the BLS reported numbers that I doubt; I thing that things are less rosy south of the border than Obama would have us believe.
243,000 more jobs last month alone. Larry who? — Garth
Sorry Garth, US unemployment hasnt fallen, only the number of people falling off their unemployment benefits has equated to “job creation”.
Anyone who knows that the number crunchers in the US started screwing with “how” they calculate the numbers (hedonics), under Regan knows its all a crock of BS. It’s like our gov’t blabbering on about core inflation. Like it matters – I don’t get to spend my $ on items that fall only under core inflation – gas being excluded.
John Williams shows the true statistics as they were calulated prior to the Regan instituted Plunge Protection Team – of which the statisticians are part of.
http://www.shadowstats.com
Tin Foil! Aisle 12! — Garth
Could it be that the phoenix rising to the south will give Brother Carney the wiggle room to raise interest rates? Will wonders never cease? Will we see a beautiful intersection where US prices rise again and Canadian ones slide down to restore equilibrium in the world? It is, after all, quite chilly up here. In all likelihood the US market will spark, sputter, and fade for a while yet. Once bitten, twice shy, I’m sure.
Greetings: I would be very appreciative if Garth would “delete” any and all posts which begin with “first” or any derivative of same. This worthwhile blog does not need idiots or morons whose sole claim to fame is “first, foist, furst, etc.”.
Then how would we know who the morons are? — Garth
Well IF the US economy has turned a corner (IF) then maybe we will be witness to the first ever soft landing of a real estate bubble in history. Remember though that soft landing losely translates into decreased house valuations and loss of equity. BUYERS BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY. DO NOT BUY INTO A FALLING MARKET.
Real Estate Appraiser Counters NAR Forecast, Warns Falling Inventory Isn’t Sign of Housing Recovery
———————–
The pause in foreclosures led to lower inventory, Miller says, but foreclosures are going to bounce back with renewed vigor now that the $26 billion settlement has been released and servicers are clearer on how they should proceed. As foreclosures ramp up, foreclosed inventory will start to flood the listings as a million or so foreclosed homes hit the market each year for at least the next two years.
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/299324/20120215/housing-mortgage-jonathan-miller-nar.htm
Gonna be a slow climb back in the US, Garth…..
Garth can you rank the following with respect to best places to invest.
San Fernando Valley of Greater Los Angeles (Topanga area just over the Hollywood hills from Santa Monica/Bell Air)
Bakersfield (University vicinity)
Palm Springs
Las Vegas (Strip condo)
San Diego (Coronado…a neighbourhood u got to see!)
San Jose area (what can you say …awesome microclimate)
Phoenix/Yuma (retirees)
Stockton-Manteca Area (Ground zero rises…very cheap)
North Sacramento/Yuba City area (rich farmland)
In 1989 we purchased our first little hovel, a semi-detatched in Guelph, ON. Our neighbour had just purchased the other half a few months earlier for $131k. THAT half of the semi was just listed for $243k.
According to the calculation I just did with Excel, the annual rate of return over that (peak to current peak) 22 years is 2.8% – before mortgage interest, property taxes, repairs, yada, yada……
I believe there is some kinda law that says a landlord can only raise rents by 3% a year (Ont.),are there any laws like that for interest rates? Has a 3%+ change ever occurred? If so, did bad stuff happen? Were the tax payers bailed out?
Wow … yet again. Generally, I like your commentary and agree with your views.
Once again, I am NOT a doomer. It is disconcerting that a financial adviser would give the impression it all clear skies head … “… erasing the bitter residue of the financial crisis”. The current risk/reward analysis does NOT favour owning equity securities. It simply has to do with the continuing risks emanating out of Europe. Greece is one thing … read an article or two on current Spanish economic contraction, deficit and its inability to meet GDP budget deficit commitments. Call me a doomer but I would rather be weighted away from equity securities in the current environment.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/395281-spain-s-economic-contraction-will-deepen-deficit-will-grow
My reference was to the Dow regaining all lost ground. Stop hyperventilating. — Garth
I beleive an indicator that the market is corecting will be the number of likes you get on your facebook posts.The percentage of likes is way too low. It is obvious you have a lot of freinds that own houses and dont like what your saying.Alot are caught up in the mania.The common sense your putting out should be getting more response.Its almost like people are affraid to admit your right, because admitting it, will make it happen.When people start comming out of their trances and take a second to acknowledge, what takes hours to convey,we’ll know the time for a correction has arrived.Its almost taboo to say anything negative about this crazy market,Ive had counless aruments, and have been accoused of wanting it to go bad.I just want things to go back to normal,so people have the time to wonder and ask, ‘If things are so good,why are we billions of dollars in debt?’Make everybody think their millionares and you can get away with anything.I just hope it isnt to late.
Actually 94 per cent of visitors here come through the front door. FB is so 2008. — Garth
Re: US Recovery –
This statement is from the Fareed Zakaria GPS on Feb. 26. Statement from David Stockman – former Director of the OMB under President Reagan.
Find it shocking that the US hasn’t added one job in 12 years?
We’re bumping along the bottom. We’re not recovering. And rather than look at a month, we ought to look at a trend. We had 132.4 million jobs reported in January, non-farm payroll. Same numbers December 2000 when Clinton was president and we were hanging by our chars (ph).
Now, when you have an economy that goes 12 years, two business cycles that has not generated over time one net job, that’s an economy that’s sick, and we need to look at the fundamental foundation of this and the sickness that underlies and not whether we’re blipping up a little bit by month or by a quarter.
I think we’re going to hit a brick wall in December. There’s a freight rain coming down the track. It’s called $7 trillion worth of deficit impact when all the tax cuts and all the cans that we’ve been kicking and the tax holiday and the dot fix and all the rest of it expires. You’re going to have Congress –
Let’s for the sake of argument assume that there is real growth in jobs and economy taking place in the U.S.. Even if there is no real jobs and economic growth, the perception alone is enough to raise the price of crude oil. This plus the Persian Gulf situation is going to send the price of crude significantly up and cause another recession.
I always get a kick reading how most of you salivate over the prospect of significant RE correction . I feel bad for Garth as he has inherited a bunch of losers. Bottom line yes Condo’s are gonna and are get creamed for sure. SFH ‘s in places like van and to will take a hit but you will not see a crash anywhere else. The US housing will recoup a bit and we will flatline at most. Dream on suckers , that is all i gotta say. …
A friend of mine told me that he was thinking about buying a condo here in Toronto the other day. I almost beat the crap out of him.
I can only see a strengthening US economy as a source of additional hot air for the real estate bubble if all other things remain equal. While the bubble has indeed topped a new surge of borrowers and another round of inflated pricing is not inconcievable. I have a family of three, a wife completely in love with owning a home and no work prospects in Canada, so I am approaching a cross roads of sorts. Long story short, there is no way I will ever buy at these prices even though we have the cash to buy outright in many locals and more than enough for [email protected] to GIVE us enough money to meet any other bidder backed by the same [email protected] provided I land a job at Micky D’s or some place like that. I was planning to secure a Master’s over the next two years and jump in hopefully gainfully employed two years from now after most of the carnage had passed but a recovering US economy puts a wrench in that. Soon the responsible move will be to not return to Canada for the foreseeable future until wages have increased to the degree that makes house prices tolerable. Something has to give, prices or wages, but something has to give. The risk is way to high to be flipping at these prices and people would not be even considering it if it were their money. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED, BUT A STRENTHENING US ECONOMY PROVIDES ENOUGH HOT AIR TO ALMOST GUARANTEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF INFLATED PRICING. GOOD LUCK.
Okay, seriously?
I’m a big fan of yours, Garth, but the Toronto vs. Dallas comparison is completely disingenuous.
The Toronto property is a two minute walk from a subway station on the 3rd best transit system in North America, and the Houston property is two kilometers away from any sort of rapid transit at all.
You don’t need such cheap tricks to make your points, you’re better than that.
Trick? So pick any other similarly-sized city. BTW that’s a helluva premium for a subway ride. — Garth
Prices in that part of the map should remain very sticky.
Through the magic of Trulia.com, you can pick any American city’s toniest neighbourhood, click on Trends, then More Market Trends, and see exactly how sticky things were there. Bonus points for explaining how Texas is somewhat different from the other 49. But I do like when the conversation starts changing from “won’t happen here” to “… but not in my neighbourhood.”
SOFT LANDING…the ending of a real estate bubble which sees no real decline in pricing but rather a maintainance of inflated prices that thus become the norm. The only occurance of such a phenomenon in recorded history occured at the end of the largest real estate bubble in history recorded some 200 years ago in Canada. The topping of the bubble was artfully delayed to coincide with the recovery of the United States economy (the largest economy of the time). This resulted in much larger percentages of wages being spent on basic human needs and shelter fulfilling a desire expressed a few decades earlier by the well known trilateralist Henry Kissenger. The increased costs of housing and nessecessities decreased consumption while maintaining profit margins. This all occured at the same time massive decreases to pensions and health care were proposed and later implemented. Historians have surmised that while this occurred in a democracy the citizens of the time largely refrained from voting with only those directly benefitting from the speculative policies brought in by the conservative government in power at the time mobilizing and voting in any great numbers.
1.) Those are offers not closings.
2.) It is still well below where it was even in April of 2011 much less the go go 2000’s.
The bottoming process is forming. But it is going to be a painfully slow climb back and it will never be what it was, so hundreds of thousands of those construction jobs aren’t coming back. You think the 23 million people added to food stamps since 2007, many of which used to own homes, are going to own homes any time soon. When that number retraces and the labour participation rate gets back to 66%. Then we can talk.
You are overstating things.
The “normalization” of interest rates will NEVER take place Garth. You mean something like 7% on $16.4 trillion in debt this year and $18 trillion next year and $20 trillion by 2015. This isn’t the early 80’s when the government debt was $1 trillion.
“If this US rebound is real, coming on the heels of a serious drop in unemployment, then it’s a pivotal thing” – Garth
“If this US rebound is real, coming on the heels of a serious drop in THE LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATE, then it’s a pivotal thing”
There, fixed it for you and that would make the answer. No.
Garth,
How can there be a real economic recovery in America, when they are floating $15 TRILLION in debt–a number that has increased ~ 4 BILLION DOLLARS A DAY since 2007?
This is the equivalent of saying that financially tapped-out “Joe Blow” recovers economically when he starts using that new, shiny credit card.
I don’t have a crystal ball but I’d be very surprised to see the US not continue on their long downward spiral. BTW- RRSP deadline is coming up. After reading this for awhile I’m less and less interested in contributing to one. But, i do owe a bit left to the home-buyers w/d plan. Does it make a difference if i pay it back in installments like Ive been doing (maybe put the $ somewhere else), or should i just clear it up ? Anyone?
A recovering US economy is a body blow to those of us hoping for huge declines in inflated house prices. If all things remain equal the hopes of a soft landing have greatly increased with a decrease in the likelyhood of much needed sharp declines in prices. I , in effect will be priced out by choice as it is too much to bear and asks for no less than my children not being able to attend University without the banks having their fingers in my children’s pockets from the start in the form of bank loans for school. While this may or may not mean the end of the bubble bursting and collapse it provides enough hope to those that are willing to borrow and buy to go right ahead and do that. The chances of another stupid spring have increased. Lets wait and see. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED BUT THERE MAYBE YET ANOTHER TOP COMING THIS SPRING. GOOD LUCK.
I will not believe that the Americans situation is improving until I see the number of people on Food Stamps is declining. That is a number that perhaps the Govt. has not fudged yet.Unemployment numbers are a joke, inflation numbers are grossly underestimated etc… If the number of people on Food Stamps was declining the Elite would be bragging that the Employment and poverty situation is improving in the USA. I believe a real recovery is a long way off and will likely never bring back the comforts that the Middle Class enjoyed in the past.
On another topic check out link that describes the maxing out of the CMHC credit card the Banks have enjoyed until recently.
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/02/banks-max-out-their-cmhc-credit-cards.html
Research results from sampling the current asking rent prices from Craigslist Toronto. Prices sourced from Craigslist ‘City Of Toronto’ apts/housing for rent section.
1 Bedroom
Sample Listings 478
Median Price $1,250
Average Price $1,208
Standard Deviation $425
2 Bedroom
Sample Listings 1,010
Median Price $1,650
Average Price $1,649
Standard Deviation $676
3 Bedroom
Sample Listings 1,043
Median Price $1,650
Average Price $1,882
Standard Deviation $838
Further details can be found in this document below.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1W39ekhkLVY8rWH5Dg9W0ZyQCXEyj4yHaGR9Nof5pHOs/edit?pli=1
This was a quick analysis that doesn’t include sq ft, but it does give some insight on availability by price range.
Quotation – our subway system is a joke… google HK MTR; that’s a “real” subway system.
For once Garth may agree with zerohedge ;)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-post-2009-northern-western-european-housing-bubble
#25 bubble head
“no comparison. Dallas house $20 000 a year property tax”
The property taxes in Texas are high compared to your world but there is no state income tax in Texas. Big difference.
#48Duckworth on 02.27.12 at 11:49 pm
I always get a kick reading how most of you salivate over the prospect of significant RE correction . I feel bad for Garth as he has inherited a bunch of losers. Bottom line yes Condo’s are gonna and are get creamed for sure. SFH ‘s in places like van and to will take a hit but you will not see a crash anywhere else. The US housing will recoup a bit and we will flatline at most. Dream on suckers , that is all i gotta say. …
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Never were a group of people of which you are representative of ever in greater need of a reality check in recent history. However I must concede that reality may well have been reinvented and I stood by like a troglodite as many such as yourself grew rich simply exploiting others needs and desires. I am not a pillar of morality to be certain but I allowed reason dictate when I was in an unreasonable arena. I have little excuse for showing up to a gun fight with a knife. I am well aquainted with the general public and some what with sales to the degree that none of this bubble is overly surprising (other than its extent). In my defense I will say that relatively recent marriage and children have made me possibly overly cautious. Now I have missed the boat so to speak and I am faced with raisng my children with wages that will not be adequate for whats likely to be many decades. There is no way I will start flipping RE now as that ship has sailed. I have in effect been priced right out of the country. A return to Canada spells a drastic change in life style for my family barring a real estate correction of a magnitude greater than that proposed by our gracious host. I will wait and see for now, but I must concede that rosey reports from south of the border coupled with low interest rates only supports you and your followers. There could be yet another round of inflated pricing left in this bubble and a better chance of a new status quo. Good luck with that.
It never ceases to amaze how some seem so particularly adept at finding the negative in most anything. I am quite sure that if the world were to fall into complete harmony these people would say it was off key. Happiness and misery are truly a state of mind as clearly you can be happy amid the most despondent of times so can you be miserable in times of glee.
Why ever would anyone choose to be miserable and it is a conscious decision one must make between misery and happiness?
Happiness is from within; it is not a matter of externals – Abraham Lincoln.
That there are positive signs coming out of the south is good news. Accept it for what it is instead of trying to find fault in it.
Patient says to doctor “Doctor it hurts when I do this.”
Doctor to patient “Stop doing that.”
I suspect that $348,000 figure is being skewed by the large number of very expensive homes in Toronto. Median house price would be a more accurate representation of housing affordability than average house price. I suspect the median Canadian house price is a lot lower.
As for that 1.5 mil house… what the heck are people smoking? Maybe the land is worth so much because it’s zoned commercial?
Yes, it appears the US economy is turning around, and real estate prices down there will gradually revert back to more normal values. I suspect that our house prices will simultaneously and moderately decrease, and eventually, traditional price differentials between the two countries will be reestablished. Interest rates will obviously increase, but the average Canadian homeowner will survive quite nicely. For most, a soft landing. And this after much unnecessary gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair. Relax.
U.S. “official” unemployment figures are a joke, just like the CPI inflation numbers and many others. For a real feel of the US economy, consider more raw and unadulterated figures:
-more than 40% of US employees are working low-wage service jobs
-out of control debt levels continue worsening at municipal, state, and federal levels
-over 40 million Americans are on food stamps (all time high)
-almost 50% of Americans live in households receiving some type of government assistance
read more here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/50-economic-numbers-about-us-are-almost-too-crazy-believe
I started following this blog recently and was happy to see Canadian economic commentary that doesn’t spout old wives tales of “bottoming” “green shoots” and “recovery”. Please don’t peddle such misleading ideas that completely ignore the facts.
#31 mad vancouver
The video link reminds me of the foreigners involved in Canadian Real Estate as a safe haven. If things at home don’t work out they can fall back on Canadian Real Estate . They are involved in a more and more riskier game. Vancouver RE will suffer the same fate as the Okanagan and the Vancouver Island market have done. Down she goes.
#47Arse on 02.27.12 at 11:44 pm
Let’s for the sake of argument assume that there is real growth in jobs and economy taking place in the U.S.. Even if there is no real jobs and economic growth, the perception alone is enough to raise the price of crude oil. This plus the Persian Gulf situation is going to send the price of crude significantly up and cause another recession.
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Lets call a spade a spade. We are in the midst of a confidence trick. Reason has little to do with this bubble. People will be able to point at some key moment when this bubble ended in retrospect but in fact there will be no halt until either interest rates rise or there are no buyers left. Sadly I fear there may still be enough buyers to continue the charade especially with news of an improving US economy (even though that degree of improvement will have no real positive economic impact upon Canada). I could easily overcome many objections raised by buyers with mere inferences raised by the prospects of a recovering America. I can not tell you how relieved I felt knowing the sales stats for the past few months but this news comes at just the right time with the spring buying season just around the corner. The situation is untenable presently and now holds a higher chance of becoming even more so. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. HOPEFULLY NEWS OF A RECOVERING AMERICA DOES NOT MAKE FOR YET A NEW TOP.
Let’s keep an eye out for this property in Toronto. This is a prime location and can not be compared to that property in Dallas. You need to compare apples to apples. Obviously if this unit sells at this ridiculous price there is still lack of supply of detached houses in the area. How many cities are there in the US and how many l
Garth,
Are you aware that Vancouver is surrounded by mountains? That Toronto is surrounded by the Greenbelt? This is the rock that underpinns these two markets.
Besides, good news in the USA is good news for Canadian employment numbers–which supports housing.
Think about that.
Garth you have it backwards on this one.
The rising gas and stock markets (DOW) are no indicator of natural economic recovery i.e productivity, only continued artificial “growth” as a result of the continued money printing to prop things up.
Just look at the US Gov. debt, endlessly rising well into 15 trillion, and being financed by more money printing, this coupled by, as the Federal Reserve said, low interest rates through to 2014 (or 2015?) which increases the velocity of money, or maintains it’s velocity with more amp added to it. It’s all about the increased money supply.
10 trillion printed in the last 18 months world wide by central banks. The money supply is only growing faster vs. production for something like oil, resulting in decreased value of the dollar and costing more to purchase things. Just look at your growing food bill last couple years, come on we all know inflation is a lot greater than what is reported by our governments.
There is nothing unusual about high unemployment (US unemployment has leaps and bounds to make up before we can call it a rebound) and increasing prices, as money supply is growing faster than demand for products – this is called stagflation and a product of the 70’s gold bull. This is just a small taste of what’s to come as gold is getting ready for a big break out!
A lot of dormers will need a new hobby. — Garth
It is the mere appearance of recovery that is required. Not an actual recovery. People will not think things through to the level they should but niether will they run out in front of a bus unless they have safety cream spread all over their body that mediates the impact of the bus hitting them. For the most part a few references in the media to the validity of the cream and friends talking about it should suffice. The cream does not have to actually work as any artful cream salesman should be able to point out the unique aspects of situations in which the cream failed (raining that day and stuff like that). Next it is an IPO of the wonder cream shares, inflated stock prices, cashing out and on to the next product. Did I miss anything? Couple this with government complicity and it is a hard nut to crack. Only the abscence of buyers or clear wide spread messages of the ineffectiveness of the cream will bring the house of cards (really titanium cards cold welded together (if that is possible with titanium) is a better analogy in this case). Hopefully for our sakes, we have run out of buyers, that is a distinct possibility.
There is no recovery in the US economy.
There is no job creation.
There is no housing market recovery.
There is fraud, corruption, manipulation of markets by government, money printing, negative interest rates, an out of control war mongering government and the greatest national debt of any country in history.
The socialisation of debt has allowed the financial elite to escape any losses and burden the taxpayer for generations.
There are no longer any free markets in the US, just Government intervention, the land of the free?
Tin foil hat? yes please.
Rose tinted spectacles ? no thanks.
Sell my gold? why would I want to do that Garth, up 18% per year last decade, no counterparty risk, held outside the banking system, unlike fiat paper cannot be debased by ever more desperate governments worldwide.
Holding any type of paper fiat currency over the last decade has cost you dearly, purchasing power is being erroded at alarming rates.
Only a fool would dismiss John Williams with a cheap off the cuff remark.
Bring on the tuna.
For those of you who like charts, here’s a relatively new missive (with analysis) about housing prices in Northern Europe. I guess that we aren’t that different in Canada after all.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-post-2009-northern-western-european-housing-bubble
For those who are wondering if the collapse in the USA is over I attach this link. this is a must watch vid. Look out below seems appropriate. http://www.themindofmoney.com/2012/02/harry-dent-on-the-mind-of-money/#
Dent is done. — Garth
http://business.time.com/2012/02/27/why-china-will-have-an-economic-crisis/
“Tin Foil! Aisle 12! — Garth”
Garth, the Systemic Kool-aid is mixed extra strong today. We all know it’s an election year in the US, so their really spreading it on thick.
With other Nations increasingly trading commodities outside the US dollar, it’s now obvious the transition away from petro buck, as the stand alone global reserve currency, has begun. This is going limit the ability to print, reduce the American living standard and force austerity onto the US public, whether they like it or not.
This is also going to have consequences for growth. Slow growth, means low inflation, which means, debts will continue to build. You know better than I, sovereign nations do not pay off debts, they inflate them away.
Even with MMT, The states has eventual printing limitations as the credit rating agencies are starting to sense the edge of the cliff. The Bernanke would now give his left nut, for another housing bubble to start and deal with the inflation fallout later.
PS: I’ll take your bullion off your hands, at a discount, as you don’t want to be stuck holding that stuff when the interest rate shoots up : )
take care,
Blacksheep
#33truth hammer
“Lets face it, the average homeowner has squat at the end of the month, Seniors are begging and kids are hungry…thats the truth..whether you like it or not. These people are barely hanging on to the house they bought forty years ago and have seen zero increases in income over the past twenty”
Sell and move … if you are complaining of a 2.5 hike when your home value has increased much more. Sell and move. Vancouver is not worth the premium. I moved and been debt free since.
62 Brainsail – there seems to be this off/on situation with property and income taxes in the different states.
Todays lesson would be dont retire in Texas.
Garth: Nice to hear good news, –but the Eu and USA
just dumped 2 trillion into the worlds money supply (there is an election?). To maintain the stats-quo, 4 trillion more will be needed in 8 mo or so…. and so on.
Your local CA observations are useful. Cheers from la-la
The interest on that 1.5 mil mortgage in Dallas is also tax deductible.
Oooops, forgot…. the $20 K property tax is also tax deductible in Dallas.
Mr. Buyer,
The RE market in Canada will most likely retain its value according to Garth’s post. If the US rises from the ashes, Canada will be lifted by the rise as well. Then the US will raise its rates first and Canada will hold off. The Canadian dollar will devalue vs the US dollar because that is what the government wants. Our exports will increase. Wage pressures will remain low because of 550,000 people entering the country every year. Do not believe the likes of Junius et al. (they have a vested interested in discrediting these numbers).
The 280,000 permanent residents and over 270,000 temporary workers/students will continue to put demand on RE (homebuyers and rentals) .
Plus, there are over 2 million Canadians living overseas. Women travel to Canada to study English, have a baby and go back home. When the kid grows up, he/she (he likely) will come to Canada and sponsor parents. This has been happening for decades. o these people will also be coming back one day.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/21/a-disposable-workforce/#more-239977
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/Canada+crack+down+birth+tourism/6214958/story.html
I’ve noted Junius responds to most of my posts involving numbers. If he thinks they’re wrong, why respond repeatedly at all? Its because the law firm he works at depends on Immigration law for some of their revenues. With respect to this blog, out of hundreds of entries over he last few years, not one has looked in depth at population growth demand.
advice: think for yourself.
#64 {;-) aka DA
A well-written post with good points. That’s a VERY old vaudeville joke at the end but one I like to quote too.
I get fed-up with people who don’t want to overcome the misery they bear upon themselves and won’t improve in some way. Improve yourself by using humour,seek out inspiration or really learning something important in this world. Instead they whine. They blame the government or “foreigners” (anyone that doesn’t look like them) or …whatever they come up to blame. Yes,sometimes there are outside forces that make life a bitch but what has ever happened to personal responsibility ?
Greetings: I would be very appreciative if Garth would “delete” any and all posts which begin with “first” or any derivative of same. This worthwhile blog does not need idiots or morons whose sole claim to fame is “first, foist, furst, etc.”.
Then how would we know who the morons are? — Garth
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You guys are far too serious. There are only a few of them and I get a laugh when I see them,
Yes Garth, the US economy is all better now. They should be able to balance their budget in the next couple of years and pretty soon the price of gasoline will be under 50 cents a litre. We have these little economic upsets once in a while, but things always go back to normal after a while. It’s really hard to imagine anything different, isn’t it?
US recovery will take as long as did the decline. But recover, it will. Smart people anticipate change. Not-so-smart people can’t. — Garth
#26 Canadian jobs going to the US –
Perhaps your moniker should read ‘Ontarian jobs going to the US’
‘Western Canadian employers court the Irish’
http://tinyurl.com/77ogcq6
http://tinyurl.com/74w83jp
(Ontarians welcome too)
‘Ontario bashes Alberta oil sands to make play for federal cash’ – FP
“On a dollars-for-carbon basis, Ontario deserves not one cent. Not that this will bother Mr. McGuinty, who doesn’t want anybody to add up the costs and benefits of his own plans. He wants real money, and Ottawa and Alberta are where the money is.” –
http://tinyurl.com/6wcsazo
Garth, agreed Vancouver/Toronto Real Estate is overpriced. My question is when would you consider buying a place, what is your entry criteria?
Garth
Your outlook for property is spot on. When it comes to stocks going gang-busters and a US recovery, your full of shit.
Where did I say anything about gangbusters? People who need exaggeration to make points rarely have one. — Garth
This blog is fantastic! Thank you Garth.
True cost of city living in Toronto link:
Almost Rich ..
Garth, do you have any insight on where Collingwood housing prices might wind up? I’m hoping for a significant downturn but wonder if it will be muted from the massive influx of new residents (mostly retired Torontonians with a pocketful of cash from the TO house they just sold).
I think the US recover will hinges on the next election and if Obama get’s in. If the Republicans win all bets are off they might be trying to build a colony on the moon!
No Dallas is not the same as Toronto. I would rather rent in TO than have a sprawling house anywhere in Texas, that gun-toting, right-wing state governed by a nutbar conservative who is out of touch with reality. At least you can walk the streets at night in Toronto
“There is no doubt this will change, ironically as the American market revives. The reasons should be clear – too much debt, falling demand, an aging population and (especially) rising rates”
Don’t those same condition exist in America? Aren’t they worse with the lack of jobs and the financial devistation? How then can the US market rise rapidly?
Too much optimism. It will not last. USA and the world economies will be in recession by the end of this year.
Dow Jones and rest of the markets are smoking again cheap drugs. Markets will be below 2009 level in 2014-2015 year.
Housing in U.S. is recovering only for the time being. It will plunge again by the end of this year.
Oh Canada, well, that is another whole story of extend and pretend.
By the way, I do not own gold and have no interest in it. However, stop pounding on people’s heads who owns it. They like it! Just like you seem to like Banks stocks which I would not touch. But who cares! You like it.
What happens with the world price of crude oil in the coming weeks and months could be the make-or-break factor in this scenario. A global energy shock resulting, for example, from an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, could choke the budding U.S. recovery in its tracks. The effects of, rather than the specific events of, 1973 and 1980 serve as a reminder as to how the volatility in the Middle East affects us all. The interesting thing, however, is that interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. will soon rise anyhow, due to other factors. So the question will be not whether rates will rise, but how soon rates will rise and how dramatically?
Congratulations on your appointment as USA correspondent for Global News.
The anti-US, ‘we’re different’ sanctimonious sentiment on this blog mirrors that of Canadian society. It defines a nation of wannabes who waste time manufacturing reasons why they’re special as snowflakes. Wholly untrue. US families are pretty much identical to ours. You can learn from others, or scoff and repeat. I get the impression from this site, which this morning has a nauseating thread, that many Canadians get up every morning hoping America will fail. You could not wish for anything worse. — Garth
Every morning i get up and i whis some one in the government will have the b…. to step in and stop this madness in real estate in CANADA, but sadlly no one have yet. Glad you have places like here. Dont be lazy, get up and sale this got dame house before its to late!
#35 Alex G. on 02.27.12 at 11:20 pm
Very interesting Alex. I wonder if that slight increase in revenue might have more to do with tax increases rather than actual jobs being created. In Canada we’ve seen our EI premiums increase.
I’m most definitely not going to act on any of this MSM tripe. My lack of faith in government policy and deep sense of mistrust in media releases has served me very well.
Garth: Was the US housing crash primarily driven by oversupply of housing units? If so, I don’t believe Canada has the same problem.
Can this account for the difference in housing prices between Can/US?
Of course we have an oversupply, as already documented here. — Garth
I think I came across as waving the white flag here. In fact sales are falling all across the country and we stand on the precipice of an epic catastrophe. This little bit of good news from the states is just that, a little bit of good news. I am waiting and seeing. Yesterday I was all but certain what would unfold in the next few months. I am no longer 99% certain. It could well be a case of too little to late. NOW IS STILL NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. BUYER BEWARE.
The doom has already unfolded. If these house prices are not doom then I need to adjust my perspective.
seriously, you think the CREA fudges numbers, look no further than the US employment numbers.
Teardown in North York for $1.5m – it’s all about HAM, just like Richmond, BC!
Has anyone noticed variable had now risen to 2.75? It was 2.5 last week. Now the variable is higher than 1 or 2 year closed. Does that make sense?
I think it’s great to be able to predict things… But if one looks at the obvious… These facts remain. The cost of living ie. in the GTA is unsustainable for the majority of the population. Any change is interet rates, changes the market. Food, gas, mortgage payments, car payments, property tax etc… I say this as a person with a paid for house with two good family incomes. I’ve frequently asked how do they do it? The answer is always the same… Debt debt and more debt. Everyone complains about money these days, because sustaining their lifestyle and wants is unsustainable. Something has to give…. And it’s obvious it will. The markets can only defy the obvious for so long.
Two different economies yet you still try to manipulate the masses with comparisons, an ass hat is fitting for you.
The two most similar economies in the world. The manipulators are you and your colleagues. — Garth
#38Dodged-A-Bullit-In-Alberta on 02.27.12 at 11:26 pm
How about limiting DA and others to five posts per day!?
My favourite posters include:
– Realtors in a Panic
– Worried Realtors
Junius’s pet monkey updates are always appreciated.
Over-extended realtors bought their own hype are worried about their next BMW payment. Realtors are materialistic bubble heads. Try an honest day’s work instead.
This is a certified >:-( aka TurnerNation post…
@Vytalguy:
“people that have been out of a job for more than a year fall off the chart.”
False.
This is an urban legend that gets repeated over and over, but is easily disproven with even the most trivial Googling.
From the US government’s own website:
People with jobs are employed.
People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
59Canadian Watchdog on 02.28.12 at 12:26 am
Craigslist is so 2000, so Web 1.0! Kijiji is where it’s at. A richer format.
Here are Toronto only stats; see, way more listings than Craigslist
http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-real-estate-apartments-condos-City-of-Toronto-W0QQCatIdZ37QQLocationZ1700273
bachelor/studio (731)
1 bedroom (3081)
1 bedroom + den (1286)
2 bedroom (2832)
3 bedroom (418)
4+ bedroom (51)
Seriously you must not get the premium a whole lot of people place on walkability and accessability because you aren’t one of them. This is a building lot not a house and after you rebuild you have a $2.1 million house give or take a bit. If you look at New York City you can get some realistic comparables and this property is still a good price.
One of my relatives is looking for this exact type of place, teardown so he can build what he likes, walking distance to the subway so that his Chinese inlaws can keep themselves busy during the day and his kids can get around by themselves. One thing I noticed about people with a lot of money is that they also don’t overcoddle kids and feel there is a pedophile behind every bush and tree like the middle class does. They actually let their kids go out by themselves and they value this type of location highly.
#96Deb on 02.28.12 at 6:12 am
Cick on my user name’s link for one person’s theory of how paper oil (the daily price) will decouple from oil-in-the-ground (wet oil). With the rise of derivatives, pairs trading (e.g. crack spread trading), oil ETFs rebalancing, the market may move for reasons other than good old supply & demand of wet oil.
Good to meet your acquaintance on this blog where so many carry such a contrary negative attitude.
We too often think of what we lack instead of taking pause to think about and thankful for all that we have. It is such inclination that caused us to amass such levels of personal debt which put so many in the precarious position of losing it all and then blaming it on everything but themselves. You are absolutely correct when you question “what ever happened to personal responsibility?” What ever happened to being accountable for your actions… or more telling what ever happened to being accountable for your in-action
I think more are coming out of this, and I do believe we are coming out of it, with the realization that it is not so much about what you want as what you have. A good thing to come of this most recent period of economic capitulation is the number of constituents who are actually learning their personal responsibilities and to be grateful for all that they have even if it is just their ten fingers and toes. There are a lot of people who don’t have even that. What is a leg or arm worth to you?
We live in Disneyland and don’t even know it – chalked full of free rides, cotton candy and opportunity. Our “Pirates of the Caribbean” is entertainment while so many others’ in the world is torment. A modest drop in prices we tremble in financial fear a modest rise we rebel in a cry of denied protest. Who among either group has ever lived a cold night homeless? We worry about a comfortable retirement while so many in the world worry about their next meal. Who here has felt the sharp pain of hunger?
We live in Disneyland and yet we want more blind to the bounty which lays at our feet that all we have to do is exert a little effort to stoop and pick it up. Have we become just THAT indignant and lazy?
I think we needed this recent economic slap upside the head. I think many have just learned the lesson, certainly more of our neighbours to the south appear to have and are now ready to move forward. I think we will see and learn from them that we may not need to repeat the lesson again and again. I think we might just learn more at their expense as a father wishes a son would do. I think for these past four years we have. I think we might just more wait for them to catch up rather than fall further meeting them down there. In any event I know that I have a whole lot of opportunity available to me just as everyone else in this Disneyland does. I’m not going to wait and see, I’m going to do what needs to be done and be grateful for what I do have.
Sarcastically call me an idealist an optimist and/or romantic all you want… I am.
@FreedomFirst:
“The question is not and never has been when interest rates will go up,the question has only been…..when?”
Care to take another stab at that?
It’s not about hoping for the US to fail….
Even the MSM wrinkled it’s nose a bit at the Labour Participation Rate stat, but you seem to have swallowed it whole.
High corp profits are just the end result of the ongoing transfer of wealth (35 years in the making)…
The transition to temp workers from full time jobs…
The never ending public debt escalation…
The end of cheap oil, which will continue to apply the breakes everytime the economy heats up…
But I’m no doomer… if I could use one word to describe myself, it would be ‘cheerful’!
#106 Amazed on 02.28.12 at 9:06 am
You’re right. The “stated” rate of inflation is a joke, as many already know. Most of us generally spend far too much anyway, for whatever reasons. One way to mitigate those inflationary increases, which I have profitably relied on for decades, is to tap into the “shadow” inventory of goods. Buy second hand (especially at church shops- no tax), barter, ask for discounts on everything (even at supermarkets) and do the work of fighting insurance, telco and fee increases- every single year. Fighting fee increases serves to slow down those increases in all future years, etc. It works like a charm. Also, the quality of merch in 2nd hand shops is phenomenal. Examples: 16″ Wedgwood crystal vase (perfect condition) bought just yesterday for $4.99- buy it online for $127.00; brand new pair of winter boots (Naturalizer) $3.00, retail $129.99.
Another payoff is the feeling of triumph coming home from a successful “hunting” expedition, with bags of cash still left in your wallet.
Any money saved is tax paid money, therefore you can gross up the savings by your marginal tax rate and it becomes obvious that all of these efforts are definitely worthwhile!
My philosophy is to increase spending and move to regular retail ONLY if rates increase.
re No. 91 – If the couple joins AA, then they save $500 a month. No whining
Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Slump 4%, Most in Three Years
I thought a true American Phoenix arises from the ashes. Unwinding the unsustainable derivatives base is required for ashes. Until then, no phoenix. If you believe otherwise, there’s some really great RE opportunities in TO to jump on before rates go up.
#111detalumis on 02.28.12 at 9:33 am If you look at New York City you can get some realistic comparables and this property is still a good price.
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I do not know how to break this to you kindly so I will just say it. As lovely as Toronto is, it is not New York city.
I think I have posted far too much today. Let me just close by saying BUYER BEWARE. NOW IS STILL NOT THE TIME TO BE BUYING A HOUSE, EVEN IF THE US HAS TURNED A CORNER. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED.
Garth…. a serious drop in USA unemployment? I’m sure that you understand the BS behind those stats, written by subjectively biased statisticians.
From Bloomberg:
“The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in January, indicating the industry that triggered the last recession is improving. The index of pending home resales climbed 2 percent after a 1.9 percent decrease the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Add to that a an originally reported drop of 3.5 percent in December, according to the Bloomberg survey and you have a drop of 5.4% in the previous 2 months less a 2% increase (latest) ….. some recovery. Let’s not forget the US trying to inflate it’s way out of this disaster, in a controlled (?) manner. Same old….the ball will be dropped and the pain is only beginning with our biggest trading partner. The ponzi scheme known as the stock market will collape again under the weight of its’ own BS (crackbook, groupon, etc. valuations) and Canadian real estate….well, anyone with a firing synapse knows where that’s headed…..
American consumers are living on thier credit cards again……..are “we” really any different ??
http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpps/news/credit-card-debt-nears-toxic-levels-dpgonc-km-20120226_18232559
“In December 2011, the total consumer debt — which is the combination of non-revolving and revolving debt — rose by some 9.3 percent to $2.498 trillion, according to the latest Federal Reserve Board numbers.
Both revolving debt and non-revolving debt increased. Revolving debt, which is credit-card debt, went up by 4.1 percent. Non-revolving debt, which includes loans for cars and education, rose 11.8 percent, the central bank’s report said.
The trend — month to month, quarter to quarter and year to year — is rising steeply.
Read more: http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpps/news/credit-card-debt-nears-toxic-levels-dpgonc-km-20120226_18232559#ixzz1ngc7kOP8
“
A US recovery? How exactly does that math work when you are $15 Trillion in debt? What recovery when cities and towns are declaring bankruptcy? Bernacke’s QE bloats a faux economy. I don’t believe a word that comes out of the White House propaganda machine and their sycophant media outlets. I agree 100% our RE is a disaster waiting to happen but sorry Garth, I’m not selling off my PMs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/stockton-california-is-said-poised-for-its-first-step-toward-bankruptcy.html
I get the impression from this site, which this morning has a nauseating thread, that many Canadians get up every morning hoping America will fail. You could not wish for anything worse. — Garth
realistic and bang on,
sleeping Horse: oh yes green belt in Ontario, mountains in Vancouver….
I totally forgot that we’re not making anymore land!!!!
I’m so lucky I had time to post that, before I rush to Pearson to pick up the plane loads of Hong Kong billionaires. Hope they don’t mind riding in a UHaul.
BEWARE U.S.A. bashers. Thankfully Americans pay no attention to Canada, unless it’s about pipelines. Doomers, never underestimate the ability of the American people. Back in the 80’s Japan was all “we’re #1.” How did that work out.
Garth,
Are you serious about that 1.5 million dollar home in the GTA ? My parents own a property like this in Mississauga not far from Etobicoke for which they paid around $300K about 12 years ago. If I told them they could sell it for 1.5 million, I think they would hyperventilate and faint.
I have a serious disconnect with that one. Seems to me that anyone who can afford the 1.5 million dollar pricetag would be the last person to want to live in a place like that. A property like that would cost around 200K here in the Eastern Townships so the 1.5 million dollar pricetag seems quite ridiculous to me.
Oh and I don’t really like the other place either so I don’t think I would pay 1.5 million for that place even if I could. Location, view, neighbourhood, lot size and privacy, amenities and all of those other things are extremely important as well and people often look too much at the house itself rather than the combination of the house with its surroundings. And even then, the house is PINK stucco for heaven’s sake.
Neither one rocks my world, that’s for sure.
HHHW
Lots of interesting opinions out there. I find it funny that the people who have something to gain in real estate usually have a glowing opinion of where the market is going (realators, mortgage brokers, developers etc.) On the other end of the spectrum you have guys live myself. First time homebuyer, down payment in hand, and access to way more credit than any average human being should be allowed. With all those factors you think I would be jumping into a mortgage. Wrong… there is no way I am signing on that dotted line. I look around and all I see is bunch of people living beyond their means. A $500k home sure looks like a great idea today but just wait until they crank up the interest rates. Tack on a couple points and new homeowners will be in for a massive wake up call. Instead of stopping after work for that delicious latte, they will be putting on the apron and serving it to pay the bills. Sad really. If you don’t’ believe me lets look at the facts.
$450,000 Mortgage @ 30 Years
3.55% – Payment $2026.74
6.16% – Payment $2721.86
That is a difference of $695.12. Wow that’s quite a bit especially since most people are living cheque to cheque. Now all of a sudden were paying a few extra bucks at the pump to get to work. Now the natural gas bill went up. Wait a minute.. now groceries went up. If people stop buying houses at the current inflated prices, how long do you think those optimistic real estate agents will sit without a pay cheque? Not very long! And who is left holding the bag. That’s right the homeowner. Without people like myself diving into the market I think we may have some troubles. I hope I am wrong but my gut feeling says I am not. All I can say is “latte please!”
…Dow flirts with the 13,000 mark… Try: *Presidet working group of finance* introduce by President R.Regan. The MARKET IS RIG , and ist legal. Go back to sleep. Everything is fine, they rig the market 24 7.
This blog is a swamp today. — Garth
US housing market has a long way to go..
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-
Tin Foil! Aisle 12! — Garth
Further to my last comments Garth (all of which can be verified by searching Hedonices, Plunge Protection Team, etc) – you can ignore everything I said in my last post (#36) and read the latest from Case-Shiller.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-housing-recovery-case-shiller-shows-8th-consecutive-month-house-price-declines
Swing and a miss Garth! – FTP
Actually, you miss. CS numbers are older and less significant than current sales. Surely you know the difference? — Garth
“…If this US rebound is real” – unfortunately there is no IF. IMHO at least.
Look at the fact the XL pipeline was turned down. If the US was really hurting for oil because of lack of supply then this would have gone through without a question. This is another indicator pointing to to something else being the problem, and that is the over inflated money supply.
Could be the bottom but it needs a few more data points…. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/home-prices-fell-in-december-in-most-us-cities/article2352381/
After all the carnage in US real estate, I am not sure it will be back in next 2 years but it will come back… look at Canada in the 90’s
Mikey the Realtor, So you come onto Garth’s site and suggest that there is manipulation here when CREA and every bank, realtor and mainstream media have been pumping and manipulating for years for your gravy train based on little work and a lot of deceit to keep the party going. That’s rich, fella.
Hey now…the large drop in US unemployment is due to a large # of unemployed people’s unemployment benefits running out.
By definition (the government’s not mine) these people are no longer considered “unemployed”. And yes…unemployment is measured the same way in Canada. This is taught in high school economics.
It is a real shame that the MSM cheer about the drop in unemployment…obviously they did not take high school economics, or bothered to read the actual report, or employ any critical thinking.
I’m sure many of the blog dogs know this, and Garth I’m surprised by your comments on the latest US employment report.
Totally agree on the CAD houses being overvalued and US housing representing some value though.
My ‘comments’ were that 243,000 jobs were created last month. I know this does not fit with your theory, but deal with it. — Garth
“243,000 more jobs last month alone”
That is nice…but…
Keeping up with the growth in the working-age population and filling in the gap by fall 2016—would mean adding 280,000+ jobs each month.
So call me when the 243,000 jobs added climbs to 280,000… and repeats month after month for a couple of years at least.
I can be reached at 1-800-big-yawn
Lets compare teachers salaries from two Canadian Provinces with those of the US state of Texas.
Ontario Teacher = $83,865
http://www.nucleuslearning.com/node/3158
Alberta Teacher =$87,954
http://www.nucleuslearning.com/node/3158
Texas Teacher = $41,744
http://www.teacherportal.com/salary/Texas-teacher-salary
Being only a hop, skip and a jump from one of the cheapest labour markets in the World that keeps costs way way down. As a Canadian business owner I wish I had access to a cheap labour market like that. It’s hard running a business that has to pay a living wage and not only keep up with, but pay through the nose for expensive Government regulation and various taxes.
Lower living costs (like houses at half price) bring lower wages. Economics 101. — Garth
Vancouver and surrounding municipalities.
15,363 active listings.
Last 7 days, 560 sales or 3.6% of listings.
Kamloops BC area.
2,519 active listings.
Last 7 days, 34 sales or 1.3% of listings.
Nanaimo and area.
1,311 active listings.
Last 7 days, 27 sales or 2% of listings.
Victoria and surrounding municipalities.
2,594 active listings.
Last 7 days, 94 sales or 3.7% of listings.
Vancouver and Victoria are still selling far more than the rest of the province. Vancouver city council is voting on a 2.5% tax increase tonight. Gas is $1.42 per litre today with another increase on April 1st, toll bridges soon. How much affect will these affordability issues have on larger centres and their desirability as destinations for new buyers?
Why are Bloggers trying to justify that price of that house or the value of that lot in North York? Don’t they get it?
3000 sf on that lot would be $2.3-2.4M by the time the place is finished after teardown and disposal, permits, service upgrades for water/sewer, architect fees etc.
Look at the house next door. Yikes!
#15 Smoking Man on 02.27.12 at 10:27 pm A Rare Treat, A sober Smoking Man post.
Ok Fans 10% and foes. 90%
I got it figured out
Why did the Canadian Real estate market not tank like the USA’s…….
———————————————————-
Smoking man makes a good sober point here. This synopsis relates not only to students though. George Bush started the everyone should own a home sub prime business in 2001, likely to salvage the economy from the .com bust. then things blew up 2007 as the market at that point became “saturated” with home owenership.
Canada now is reaching/reached the “saturation” point, as our subprime began about 2008. We are only 4-5 years behind the US but eventually we’ll arrive at the same conclusion.
Vancouver has lots of space; get rid of all the parking lots and build vertical lots like they do in Asia. It makes me laugh to see all the asphalt fields er, parking lots, in Vancouver-Richmond-Surrey etc.
Median prices are just as easily skewed in the U.S. There are a lot more rich people down there than up here. It’s all relative, and Canada’s prices are double on average what they should be.
What this housing mania has proven once again is that people can talk themselves into anything if they want it bad enough. We all know it’s bullsh!t and the clock has to strike midnight eventually.
After that, it’s pumpkin time!
Finally, America’s green shoots are sprouting, debt doesn’t matter and all is good so go out and SPEND. Thanks Garth for reminding me why I stopped listening to mainstream crap 20 years ago.
You live in a mainstream world, even in NS. — Garth
#110 TurnerNation
Once the duplicates are purged the number will be smaller. I may try Kijiji to compare results from other stats I have. I think we have some price gouging happening like the 70’s, so don’t be surprised if the government imposes price caps on rents soon—this is what NGDP targeting is—modern capital controls.
I own mine free and clear. Not that it will give clue as to my identity for any given real estate office has parked in front of it easily 10, 20 or more.
Do I detect a hint of resentment? Really if it appears so easy and lucrative why don’t you take that two week correspondence course and become one yourself?
This is a certified };-) Devil’s Advocate post…
The fact that the Cdn “not in my back-yard-igans” are now looking at a US recovery to be Canada’s Real Estate Airbag, just illustrates that Canadian’s actually realize just how much their housing prices are in Jeapordy.
The last CDN correction in the late 80’s took 2-3 years to plummet, and 12-15 years to recover.
To you honestly believe that the US will immediatly regain 50% of their losses in the next 12 months to close this inequity in average housing prices ?? And make for a nice soft cushy pillow for Cananda’s housing prices to land on.. Really ???
If that is our last resort, then we really are screwed.
Kevin, Kevin, Kevin –
You rely on the US Government website to provide you with the employment information, and believe whole heartedly. Naive much?
As one alert commenter has already pointed out, if you google ShadowStats, and listen to John Williams, you will begin to understand more about the numbers and how the government has changed the reporting of various things including the money supply, inflation, employment, etc. to suit their needs.
Just remember, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
And then there’s tin foil. Hard to see through. — Garth
#91 North o’ TO
Garth, Toronto has a serious case of Vancouveritus. Or is the other way around?
BTW, the Leafs are almost as pathetic as this blog…just sayin’. ;)
Do you realize what a short term boon rent controls would be to both the real estate sales and rental markets and at ultimate cost to renters? They would merely bring forward that which is inevitable. “BRING ‘EM ON!!!”, I say.
But you don’t get it do you, being renters and all? Why do you think you are still renting? Could it be that you just don’t get it? Some do, some don’t, some never will, everyone can but too few do.
Trick? So pick any other similarly-sized city. BTW that’s a helluva premium for a subway ride. — Garth
Garth, who the hell pays 1.6M for a house and rides the subway? Seriously.
Exactly. There is no justification for this pricing. — Garth
#93 timmy on 02.28.12 at 5:34 am…
As a winter resident of a ‘right-wing’ state I can assure you there is little difference in Arizona or Texas in comparison to the politics of BC or Alberta (or the Fed/Cons). Except the governments up north are always trying to hide their true ‘nutbar’ intentions.
There are areas of every city in the world where it isn’t safe to walk at night and Toronto is no exception.
The irony I see is that the people we have met down south are without a doubt more friendly and helpful than any we ever met in Canada.
What we see from the front-line here in Phoenix is the economy is doing very well – much better than a year ago. Maybe it’s the snowboid effect, but everyone we see is smiling and spending!
#109 Kevin
>>>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS compiles data on the employment status of the population. This data come from the Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted for the BLS by the U.S. Census Bureau. The CPS is a monthly survey of about 50,000 households.
To be classified as unemployed in the CPS people must satisfy two primary criteria: (i) they must have no job and (ii) they must be actively seeking employment.
If the survey does not classify you as unemployed then you are out of the labor force.
So does the BLS’ method of surveying 50K households and coming up with a large decrease in the unemployment rate point to a big improvement in the economy?
Does this method excite you for a country of 300 Million people?
There are other measures of unemployment too.
Can anyone tell me exactly when Canada started the 0 down 40 yr amortizations? And when it ended?
Trying to gauge the duration this loose policy existed.
Thx
Talk about night and day. I actually looked at the link and makes me want to move to Dallas, no offence Edmonton.
The sound of the ball dropping; seem familiar?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/394831-an-epic-australian-bust?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
Garth’s recommendation to dump gold is exactly what gold owners want to read. If enough readers of this blog do exactly that, the price will decline. At that point, those few people who understand that gold is in a gradual and multi-decade bull market will have the opportunity to purchase more of the metal at a moderated price.
Therefore, pleeeeez, Garth, recommend that readers also dump their silver.
I have never said to dump gold or silver, but to harvest capital gains to maintain a reasonable and consistent portfolio weighting. That’s investing. Hanging on because of the greedy voice in your head is speculation. — Garth
Did anyone see TVO The Agenda Monday night? The subject was the condo building boom in Toronto, and questioning whether or no there’s a bubble. The guest speaker said more building is going on because more people are buying them, and then other businesses springing up around them so all seems rosy. Wait a minute, isn’t that what The American said about the condo market in Seattle or Portland back in 2005? Apparently most people didn’t see the correction coming.
Now, when I look at the present situation with housing in the United States, I flash back to another nostalgia trip to 1994. Memories come back of hearing about the death of Kurt Cobain, the annular solar eclipse on May 10, and hearing Superunknown by Soundgarden among other things. That was also the time of capitulation, when most people thought housing was dead. The following year David Foot, in his book about demographics, also said housing would flatline for many years to come. When you hear talk like that that is a sure sign of capitulation and time to start looking if you want to buy a house. What are you waiting for?
Well Garth, then why do I still get that sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that tells me U.S. housing is still ludicrously expensive?
Could it be that jobs are flatlining on the way further down?
Could it be that loan uptake and personal debt are still rising?
Possibly real interest rates are still negative, price inflation picking up and middle class living standards still losing ground?
And they can’t feel good with their kids in their basement, stuffed with college debt and a future in K-Mart – at best.
It’s not all about HOUSES and tech doodads around that house. And who cares about Obama? CONFIDENCE IS GONE.
Perhaps there’s actually a hell of a lot of “money” and credit out there but not much real CAPITAL…
Never mind Canada…it’s beyond ridiculous.
‘Confidence is gone’? Try some research before you spew. — Garth
#85 Harlee on 02.28.12 at 2:03 am
#64 {;-) aka DA
Good posts you two.
The doomers are out in full force today. Some even claimed that they’re not doomers. Ha…
How can they, the doomers, enjoy a happy and fulfilling life. Everything they see is black and if not they’ll make it so. There’s always a good side to everything and a winner versus a loser.
A positive and constructive person would not waste their time bitching on a blog.
Tough to live with a doomer, even as a friend. Life’s too short.
GEE, I ONLY WISH…
That Garth’s sanguine view of a future American economy would actually come to pass.
Here’s why, this irredeemable economic doomer hopes so.
Because, I’ve been a wretched colonist all my life!
Started out being a tug-of-the-forelock “Brit” sniveling colonial in the aftermath of WW2.
Then, by golly, I became a Yankee doodle dandy serfer by the end of the Nifty-fifties! Thanks Suez Crisis and the subsequent official end to High Teas at Buck’ House and all that! Pip, pip…
Casting around since those calamitous events of 2007, etc., I’ve been desperately seeking a new colonial master, having FULLY lost faith, and continuing to do so, in the one to the south of us.
Whom would it be? Someone forcing Peking duck on me or how about having to take a trek to Mecca?
Or would it be some Max Max freak show come washing ashore to be greeted by disparate members of what’s left of the allegedly diverse American Feminist Movement before they would be taken out and shot? On second thought!
Hmm. Alternatives, alternatives…
Then our trusty trend forecaster comes out with his latest column. And I must reflect that it does make much sense.
That’s because nothing economic ever progresses smoothly. It happens in fits and contradictory starts. At times nothing makes sense.
With contradiction at the forefront, therefore, some details from CNBC and other of the usual temperature-taking media suspects:
–CNBC reports consumer confidence is way up from the equivalent previous time period;
–CNBC/Reuters ALSO report the following…”Durable Goods Demand Falls Most in 3 Years; Down 4%…New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell in January by the most in three years as demand fell across the board from machinery to aircraft, suggesting the economy started the year on weaker footing than expected.
Durable goods orders dropped 4.0 percent, the biggest drop since January 2009 when the country was still mired in a deep recession…”
–Then this report on US housing…Home prices fell in December for a fourth straight month in most major U.S. cities, as modest sales gains in the depressed housing market have yet to lift prices.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows prices dropped in December from November in 18 of the 20 cities tracked…prices fell in 19 of the 20 cities in December compared to the same month in 2010…Nationwide, prices have fallen 34 percent…since the housing bust, back to 2002 levels.”
–London Telegraph paper on this date: “It’s just been announced by Irish PM Enda Kenny that the country (IRELAND) will have a referendum on Europe’s new fiscal compact. The country joined 24 other EU states last month and agreed on a pact for stricter budget discipline.
The Irish people will be asked for their authorisation in a referendum to rafify the european stability treaty.
Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said it’d be regrettable if a country decided to leave the eurozone but that its partners would be forced to accept it….”
SO WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
It means little because all of this information must be considered in the context of our world-wide debt disease. Everything is out of whack because so much “money” is sloshing about; more than at any other time in economic history.
And loot is still being printed in vast quantities.
Unless productivity can be ramped up to challenge the now runaway debt disaster, then all this is economic temperature-taking is just so much goose cack.
Meanwhile, as Garth notes, IF the US economy and its critical housing component picks up in 2013, that means higher interest rates, as he makes ABUNDANTLY CLEAR.
Ah, there’s the rub. It’s the interest rates. That’ll kill off the Canadian real estate and manufacturing market, and eventually any nascent economic recovery in the US and elsewhere. Higher interest rates and higher debts through the printing of more money. That’s all we need next year!
Oh yes. AND HOW ABOUT HIGH AND GOING HIGHER ENERGY PRICES?
CNBC is utterly obsessed about that energy issue today.
Because there is no economic recovery when it costs Mr. and Mrs. America a C-note to fill up their newly-leased 2012 computer-filled SUV.
I sincerely hope that Mr. Garth is NOT counting his chickens before they hatch!
Does anyone remember how this blog was overrun by doomers and nihilists last September telling us American would imminently default and 2008 was back? You are reading more of the same Chicken Little drivel again today. BTW, the US did not defauly, is slowly recovering, and stocks are 26% higher. Those are facts. — Garth
Every time you post a comparison like that it makes me think I should just go ahead and write the US Engineering exam and emigrate. With our dollars at par, and house prices where they are, I could buy my wife her dream house someplace warm with cash in hand.
Sure I’d have to take a pay cut, but the cost of living is proportionally lower – even excluding real estate.
The only reason I can think of for why I haven’t already is my overdeveloped sense of patriotism. Stupid patriotism :P
#13 Min in Mission on 02.27.12 at 10:24 pm
Which one of the Amazons is responsible for “surfing” the net looking for your post pictures? She must have good search skills!!
My guess is Gryne. She seems more intellectual compared to the others. Otherwise she wouldn’t have been interested in Apollo (or Garth as we know him nowadays).
#95 Mel on 02.28.12 at 5:49 am
With your attitude, like the other boomers, this is why you’re angry and poor and will remain so.
Roll up your sleeves and get to work. We should all do our part. Entitled losers.
At this it is so important to be outside of the banking system by having a portion of your assets in physical gold and silver. Governments are broke and much of the banking system is insolvent.
Absurd statement. — Garth
#115 Oasis on 02.28.12 at 9:46 am
“Did Paul Volker all of a sudden took over for Bernanke? no, … .no i won’t be selling my gold any time. not when the greatest money printing since the Weimar Republic is occurring…”
———-
Most people on this blog, doomers, don’t understand what “money printing” is or means.
Before blabbing all over the place, get educated.
Ever heard of Google?
Most of you, not all, believe any article from MSM and some ignorant “journalist” or “economist”.
Most of our problems are man made.
This posted just over an hour ago:
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/28/youre-about-to-get-burned/
Byline: Time to panic about the housing market
Why is everyone ignoring this unfolding disaster?
#64 };-) aka DA on 02.28.12 at 12:40 am
Soooooo, critical thinking and questioning the status quo is a waste of time and effort based on your statement. Isn’t it how we make decisions in life, by weighing the positives and negatives?
By the way, if I had a Doctor like that, I think I would seek a second opinion.
“Accept it for what it is instead of trying to find fault in it.” In la la land, that might work. In reality it does not.
#116 Realitybytes on 02.28.12 at 9:49 am
“But I’m no doomer… if I could use one word to describe myself, it would be ‘cheerful’!”
———-
Oh really? Another doomer claiming not to be.
Not ‘cheerful’ try ‘loser’.
The debt and solvency issues can be dealt with by attempting to inflate them away. I believe such action is futile at this point. If such is the case, REAL paper gains will be muted or dare I say, negative.
This is a US election year. Tape painting, jaw boning, and phony valuations abound. The village idiots are being thrown an illusory bone.
As time marches forward the taxman will eat your lunch.
@#155VICTORIA TEA PARTY, thank you for putting it more eloquently and concisely than I could!
This is just the start of a secular economic slide which will continue, slowly and perniciously, for years to come. Doesn’t mean you have to be a doomer into gold (well, OK), guns and groceries. Just reality. PEAK CREDIT means something, guys…
@#159Preciousss, Prescient and prudent statement, rendered all the more credible to the non-convinced by your use of the words, “…a portion of…”
@Garth, yes, point made about CONSUMER confidence. But they’re living on credit anyway:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/inexplicable-american-consumer-takes-breath
“…pulled out a stack of credit cards and went shopping…!”
Not so sure about investor confidence, banker confidence or confidence in government, though…
Demand for credit in the US is a positive indicator, unlike here. — Garth
#135 City Slicker on 02.28.12 at 10:56 am
“Look at the fact the XL pipeline was turned down. If the US was really hurting for oil because of lack of supply then this would have gone through without a question. This is another indicator pointing to to something else being the problem, and that is the over inflated money supply.”
———-
Nothing to do with money supply.
It’s called “politics”. Doomer.
#75 LJ ; has hit an extremely important point for everyone to follow here !
PLEASE LOOK AT THIS, IT WILL WAKE YOU UP,
the prices for houses in Europe make Canadian’s home prices look downright CHEAP.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-post-2009-northern-western-european-housing-bubble
Now I don’t know if this means much for the Canadian home price market or not, but what if European house prices stay in the stratosphere for the next 30 to 50 years, will that mean that Canadian home prices will need to rise by 500% in price to match their prices?
Yes, I said 500%, just read that article and you will see what I’m talking about.
Gee, what’s the population of Europe – where 50% rent? — Garth
All I can tell you is that the real estate community is abuzz with the news that the market seems to be ramping up here and especially south of the boarder. These are people in the business commenting to one another – not trying to convince the general public.
Personally I don’t care. I have been happy with the market the way it has been these past few years -actually prefer it so. All I am doing is warning you. Maybe it is a short lived false start, maybe not. Seems to me though that after more than three 3 since the economic crisis of 2008 and a lot longer since the initial failings of the U.S. real estate market it’s not unreasonable to expect this uptick might be warranted and due.
You are absolutely correct which is why I should take my leave. Especially now that it appears those doomers might soon learn a most valuable lesson which I’ve been trying to caution them of for more than three years now that they might learn it at less expense or maybe even profit from knowing sooner than too late.
The tide might be turning. I’ve seen this before and this is how it happens. It starts with people in the know at the grass roots level commenting amongst them knowing that if they publicize they will be ridiculed and scorned. These professionals know that it’s still too early to tell but they see an emerging trend that the market appears to be changing. They don’t care – for them it has always been good up market or down. But the SHIFT that is emerging signals a need to adapt just as they needed to that which proceeded but of a different direction.
Doomers take care and pay attention. It might just be time to let go of your prejudices and accept new and real opportunities.
#139 DaBull on 02.28.12 at 11:41 am
Canadian teachers are way overpaid.
What are they teaching anyway.
When my kid came out of grade 12, with honour, I had to show him how to write a cheque. Impressive.
Teachers can’t even figure out the drawings of 4 year old kids. Impressive.
“Demand for credit”, in a peak credit scenario, is no positive sign. How can borrowing MORE be a solution to overborrowing?
And another little point: consumers don’t drive real gains in wealth or create real, non-credit-dependent and lasting jobs.
INVESTORS and SAVERS do. REAL capital.
Only a diehard Keynesian, a la Krugman, would want MORE borrowing.
Then you fail to understand much. — Garth
While I don’t disagree that the pendulum has swung too far in the US deflation zone, there are still signs that US housing has a ways to go till bottoming out. The article does mention the uptick in signed contracts that Garth mentioned, but it appears the majority of these were bottom feeders snatching up the most distressed properties. Still, you gotta start the rebound somewhere. GO USA GO!!
“Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Decline 4%”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-decline-4-.html
@TurnerNation
Here’s the Kajiji Results under 1 Bedroom Section
Listings 1007
Average Price $1,427
Median Price $1,400
Standard Deviation $591
Listing Distribution
$500-750 94
$750-1000 178
$1000-1250 120
$1250-1500 234
$1500-1750 157
$1750-2000 109
$2000-2250 37
$2250-2500 43
$2500-2750 7
$2750-3000 10
$3000-3250 3
$3250-3500 2
$3500+ 7
Seriously? Do you really believe what you just wrote?
Indecision is failures friend.
Carpe diem. Pluck the fruit of this day for it may not last and spoil in the uncertainty of tomorrow.
“Accept it for what it is instead of trying to find fault in it”
I should have told my thesis committee that. It would have made my defence much shorter. Perhaps it will work if I get audited by CRA. Or on my next project proposal to a client.
@TurnerNation Woops repost with the doc link.
Here’s the Kajiji Results under 1 Bedroom Section.
Listings 1007
Average Price $1,427
Median Price $1,400
Standard Deviation $591
Listing Distribution
$500-750 94
$750-1000 178
$1000-1250 120
$1250-1500 234
$1500-1750 157
$1750-2000 109
$2000-2250 37
$2250-2500 43
$2500-2750 7
$2750-3000 10
$3000-3250 3
$3250-3500 2
$3500+ 7
https://docs.google.com/document/d/10n0mBH3GtK9qzfbGGlR8a-dQa0aOHf5nruXhTwa9nfM/edit?pli=1
Demand for credit in the US is a positive indicator, unlike here. —
US consumer debt is lower than in Canada, sure, but still far too high for my comfort level. I don’t see an increase in demand for credit as positive in the least. What it tells me is that people still haven’t learned their lesson. They believe the past five years were an anomaly and that soon we’ll be partying like it’s 1999 again. Not a doomer, just not convinced people’s & governments’ behaviour has changed enough for a meaningful recovery to take hold. Japan has had numerous “recoveries” over the past 20 years as well.
What the US does have going for it is low personal tax levels (too low in fact, since they can’t even fund current spending, let alone future liabilities) which may enable a recovery to take hold faster than the Negative Nellies like myself anticipate. Time will tell.
Finally, a stock market recovery and an economic recovery are two different things, and they can be quite detached from one another. A rising Dow could be attributed to easy money from the Fed – it has to end up somewhere. Ditto for improving corporate balance sheets and companies that are “flush with cash”.
…”evidence the US housing market’s rebounding.”… – Hon GT
I wouldn’t be too hasty, OldChap… indeed, if I were you, I’d hang on to the Doubloons and pyrotechnics and lay in a few more cases of Garth’sGourmetSquirrelGarnish…
[BloomBerg] – Economy · U.S. · Real Estate .Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Decline 4%
http://tinyurl.com/7qu7m24
[subtext: it’s not over yet… the Yanqui’s GoatToastingRoyale… albeit ours may well eclipse theirs, by the time the dust has settled.]
*Sigh* The CS index is historic, while counting new contracts from last month is fresh. Big difference. Besides, sales are a leading indicator while prices are lagging. — Garth
#97 -Garth’s response to House is spot-on. Canadians tend to be too self-centered at times. Our country has a differant history in some ways than the U.S. and taking pride in being Canadian is okay,but to think that we are BETTER than Americans (for what-ever reasons) is ignorant.
#117 maxx. Valu Village here in Saskatoon is a popular store. I haven’t been to it in some time but when I did shop there it always had happy customers. Some snobs in Stonebridge (newer,”richer” area in the city) were opposed to having a new VV built in their neighbourhood (“….will attract the ‘wrong’ type coming to the area..”) but most didn’t see anything wrong with one at all and welcomed it.
#113 – };-) aka DA
I was lucky in my upbringing that I had an older father (than other kids),who had been a teenager/young man during the Depression. As I boy I would listen to him and his mother talk about the “dirty thirties” when the economy and nature went against many people. Some families were so poor back then that they had to clothe their girls in dresses made from flour sacks. Sounds ridiculous to us,but it’s true. It wasn’t easy,but they carried on until times got better. Big deal if today the “Gap for Kids” store closes down in the local mall.No way I’m hoping for a return of a depression,but let’s appreciate the fact that we live in an era that is better than that. And let’s do what we can as individuals to make it better. (end of the soapbox lecture,for today…:-)
“HIT.UN – FIERA HIGH INCOME TRUST UNITS is yielding 15%??
Sheesh.”
so why isn’t everybody buying it? There is a reason they offer a high yield, its called risk.
I prefer ERF.UN which has a steady dividend of .18/share, about 9% right now, but less as it goes up. Oil has been down, but its a commodity we all need. have you seen the gas pumps lately? ouch 1.38 here in the Victoria.
A second term for Obama is a certainty. The republicans should probably just save taxpayers the expense of an election, avoid the damage these potential candidates can do to the party in an election campaign.
A second term for Obama has big repercussions for Canadians. The US is pursuing a weak dollar policy, its seen as a driver for US job growth. It makes Canadian workers & industry uncompetitive, not a great situation for a country heading towards recession.
There seems to be a belief that a US recovery automatically means recovery here in Canada. Few are recognizing how much the world has changed. At this point it might be too late, once the downturn in the RE industry tips us into recession its going to be hard to crawl out of the hole. Canada won’t be alone, there are still plenty of other regions in the world that have yet to see their asset bubbles deflate. Misery loves company.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/biderman-real-time-economic-data-shows.html
“Charles Biderman gives a step by step analysis of the key data that some say shows an ‘economic recovery.”
The idea that this is just another recession – or that we aren’t in one! or that this is a “recovery” – should be re-thunk!
#150 };-) aka DA
“Do you realize what a short term boon rent controls would be to both the real estate sales and rental markets and at ultimate cost to renters?”
Explain instead of running your senseless mouth off.
turner is on fire today.. i can see he scored some doouuuuu in the markettt
Not sure what happened to Nostramus De Vlad. Have not seen his posts for 2 days.
Not so fast Garth . . . Case Schiller says “No Housing Recovery Yet for the US ” – 8th Consecutive Month Of House Price Declines . . .
“The December Case Shiller came, saw, and shut up all those who keep calling for a home price recovery. . . 18 out of 20 MSAs saw monthly declines in December over November, with just the worst of the worst – Miami and Phoenix – posting a dead cat bounce, rising 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. And granted the data is delayed, but the fact that we have now had 8 consecutive months of home price declines even with mortgage rates persistently at record lows, and the double dip in housing more than obvious, can we finally shut up about a housing bottom? Because as Case Shiller’s David Blitzer says: “If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012” . . .
From the report:
“In terms of prices, the housing market ended 2011 on a very disappointing note,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “With this month’s report we saw all three composite hit new record lows. While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended.
“After a prior three years of accelerated decline, the past two years has been a story of a housing market that is bottoming out but has not yet stabilized. Up until today’s report we had believed the crisis lows for the composites were behind us, with the 10-City Composite originally hitting a low in April 2009 and the 20-City Composite in March 2011. Now it looks like neither was the case, as both hit new record lows in December 2011. The National Composite fell by 3.8% in the fourth quarter alone, and is down 33.8% from its 2nd quarter 2006 peak. It also recorded a new record low.
“ . . . If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-housing-recovery-case-shiller-shows-8th-consecutive-month-house-price-declines
Sure are a lot of realtors on here lately. Must be stressful, nothing moving in the market, no calls, no emails, bills pilling up, I wouldn’t wish that on anybody. I’m surprised that they come here and waste their time. Maybe the name of this blog is confusing them.
I wouldn’t be so quick – things are not as they seem. Corporate profits are high, but only from the low US dollar on repatriated profit (magic increase of 40%). Oh, is there any $$ being made in the US? Or is it all from overseas?
That fuels profits and the stock market. oh, has anyone looked at the volume of the S&P lately? Hilariously low.
SOME US companies are making money from domestic operations but that is because it makes sense to buy computers and equipment at 0% and lay off workers. But that isn’t helping the economy.
So what happens when the US dollar goes up again as it is doing now? The magic profits disappear and go the other way.
Unemployment and the economy improving? Really? The only reason people are saying that is because things have been so bad for so long that even the tiniest measly little increase is like a tablespoon of water to someone dying of thirst.
The US has a long long long way to go before they even approach where they were and Canada hasn’t even started.
#86 JOHN: “Then how would we know who the morons are? — Garth
——————————————————–
You guys are far too serious. There are only a few of them and I get a laugh when I see them.”
****************************
But they’re not FUNNY — they’re morons. How can you possibly think they’re ‘funny’?
#172 eaglebay – Parksville on 02.28.12 at 1:23 pm
#135 City Slicker on 02.28.12 at 10:56 am
“Look at the fact the XL pipeline was turned down. If the US was really hurting for oil because of lack of supply then this would have gone through without a question. This is another indicator pointing to to something else being the problem, and that is the over inflated money supply.”
———-
Nothing to do with money supply.
It’s called “politics”. Doomer.
Interesting goings on with Keystone, it sure is all about politics. I spoke to an Exxon employee from Houston last week, he just bought a house close to where Exxon will be building new offices and says that the industry is waiting until the election then full steam ahead….Don’t know if he is right or wrong but I see that Trans Canada is going ahead with the southern portion of the pipeline and the Democrat governor of Montana said that it was as much as a done deal as far as he was concerned. Haven’t looked at TCP’s stocks this week…
Check out this article:
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/28/youre-about-to-get-burned/
When (or if) Global News ever jumps in the bubble popping bandwagon, know that the end of this absurdity has come.
Trans Canada Pipeline.
Up .64 today, 7 analysts, buy, 5, hold and no recommendations to sell…What are they thinking?
The picture is hilarious! We have done that hundreds of times, but only on the grass. Those kids are reckless, they must be future top bankers.
Sure, I’d be happy to. Right after you sign a Buyer Representation Agreement with me. Don’t take offence for I require all Buyers I work with sign one, but only for reason of a few is it that I need to. Still I am not one to discriminate so… The BC Teachers may be without a contract but that does not mean I must be too };-).
Shocked at the bilious content of the comments today, except for DA who has suddenly morphed from attacking everyone to sunshine and lollipops — DA 2.0 as it were.
But it still keeps him feeling superior, so it serves the same purpose.
BTW I hold dual citizenship in the US and Canada — bring on the hate!
Now imagine if Canada and US became one country one day. Wawawiiiwaaaaa house prices here will become much less and US ones higher. I bet you there are a lot of weather suppressed house horny Canadians that will jump to the south of US and create a bubble in that region right away.
#188 Canadian Watchdog on 02.28.12 at 2:23 pm
Actually let me retract that offer. One of the perks of my business is I get to choose who I will work with and who I will not. I am quite sure you are not someone I would want to work with.
There you go with your boomer centric talk by bashing teachers cause you got no kids in school.
Did you know:
Chrissy Clark et al send their kids to PRIVATE schools.
If you don’t give teachers a raise, they should cancel indefinitely all volunteer activities.
You are encouraging the rise of a private education system.
Let’s have premiums for education like we have for health… Oh wait that’s not in the interest of boomers.
Shorten the length of post-secondary training to 1 year from 5 years to become a public school teacher. Private schools can keep it at 5. The public just can’t have it both ways Eaglesbay.
Eaglesbay, you want a better education for those that can pay for a private education. Why are you living in Parksvill instead of Phoenix? Oh yeah, free health care on the back of younger generations.
#174 };-) aka DA
“The tide might be turning. I’ve seen this before and this is how it happens. It starts with people in the know at the grass roots level commenting amongst them knowing that if they publicize they will be ridiculed and scorned.”
Sounds like the early bears.
#28 ANONYMOUS
Are you trying to say that it is REALISTIC and NORMAL to EXPECT that home prices will rise by an average of 58% every 2 to 3 years?
————————————————————-
Quite the opposite. The message showed a concern for house prices. Why do you think the poster is named “Uh Oh Canada”?!?!??!
Ever strolled through a big box home improvement store lately? There are more employees than customers. The number of jobs are an irrelevant statistic.
Related to this: We need more sales per customer, not higher prices. Once again, the perennial question becomes: who will buy? The 1%-ers cannot sustain a recovery in N.A.
Durable goods orders Jan biggest slump in 3 years:
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2012/02/28/economic-recovery-may-not-be-a-durable-good/
#203 };-) aka DA
“Actually let me retract that offer. One of the perks of my business is I get to choose who I will work with and who I will not. I am quite sure you are not someone I would want to work with.”
Precisely why I ignore your baseless comments, so don’t reply to mine unless you have anything other then drama queen rants to debate with.
Read before you buy (if you bought S-T-O-P immediatelly, you do not want a heart attack)
Toronto and GTA will end just like New York (minus 24%)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/city-by-city-breakdown-of-latest-housing-data-2012-02-28
Lower living costs (like houses at half price) bring lower wages. Economics 101. — Garth
I don’t see the problem with that, as long as consumer prices follow. Oh geez, what was I thinking? For a second, I forgot about those banking families with their thing called usury…
All that stuff about the U.S. housing market recovering?
Yeah…. nevermind…
As I sit here at my desk following up with clients this Tuesday morning it is not difficult to have a number of windows open on my two computer screens one of which might be this blog and to post comment here and there as the thought occurs to me.
You obviously do not understand what a real estate agent does all day. Granted most don’t waste the time I do with this “pathetic” blog nor do the successful ones spend all day driving buyers around in their car. Time is better spent researching and finding the properties that make sense instead of touring in person those which do not.
Actually, you miss. CS numbers are older and less significant than current sales. Surely you know the difference? — Garth
Current sales are the equilavent of a tallest midget contest. Sales and starts are still historically low. As I have already stated. You are overstating not only the U.S. recovery but even more so the housing recovery. Again offers are not the same as sales. You know this.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/no-end-in-sight-to-us-housing-crisis/article2352668/
And sales are not the same as prices. Nice try. — Garth
The destiny of all corporate entities is to EVOLVE into a BANK. Let this sink in…(silence would help so plug your ears or something for a minute)…
Because, the most efficient method of garnering profits is usury, there is very little long-term profit in continuing to provide a product or labour service before the Law of Diminishing Returns starves out that illusion. The beneficial dynamics of profit are temporary. Look at Microsoft, it is no longer a tech company. It’s a boring bank now, effectively, that relies on ignorant people to continue to pay for something they don’t need to pay for. Get it? You can apply this to any industry.
Whenever any company amasses sufficient capital that exceeds their re-investment needs, the trend is for them to start a banking operation of some kind. A grocery store that runs a bank on the side? All of our big five banks were once purveyors of goods and services unrelated to usury.
Just as a red giant star is said to eventually evolve into a black hole, the inevitable path of a corporation is to become a bank whose job is to print money paid by people who are slow to change their habits. The legacy high-profit corporations only continue to operate by maintaining the status quo. As I mentioned yesterday, this is how all markets are manipulated into continued existence.
And this is the reason, why, when humanity finally grows up and stops being children, that all things will be FREE.
Just re-read your 1987 Book titled; Garth Turner’s Real Estate Guide”. On page 7 you wrote; “Real Estate is the only place to be for the rest of this decade, and well into the 1990s”
And it was true. But not now. — Garth
#208Canadian Watchdog
Yes and please you do the same.
#179 };-) aka DA on 02.28.12 at 1:37 pm
Seriously? Do you really believe what you just wrote?
Yes, I do.
“Indecision is failures friend.”
So are decisions Based on BAD Information or worst, Malicious and purposeful Misinformation.
“Carpe diem. Pluck the fruit of this day for it may not last and spoil in the uncertainty of tomorrow.”
I think those were the words whispered by the Snake to Eve before God foreclosed Eden on Mr. Adam and Ms. Eve. “Take the Apple”
Yes, buy the house now, buy it today. Who cares if the valuations are totally out of whack. R/E will go up forever!!! Who cares about tomorrow. So what if you can’t save for your kid’s education, your retirement etc. You might end up broke and homeless after the banks foreclose on you, but hey at least you WERE a Home Owner.
You were special!!! You were };-) aka DA’s kind of people…and that is worth a lot more. You DA man, DA.
Have a nice day!!!
#212 DA
So many properties, so few buyers. That equals a lot of research. The Okanagan market has gone to sleep.
DA,
“Don’t take offence for I require all Buyers I work with sign one”
Why? I thought life was a gamble? Oh right – only for your clients.
#175 eaglebay – Parksville on 02.28.12 at 1:30 pm
Your kids left your booney town so they don’t end like you. They got poor education because you’re stuck on the island.
#27 Kilby on 02.27.12 at 11:00 pm
#216 };-) aka DA on 02.27.12 at 10:18 pm
#214SaggyBottomBoomer & #202 Kilby
A collection of guidelines for Internet communications, includes a warning to be especially careful with the use of sarcasm as it “may not travel well”.
You Okanaganites are so conservative,what guidelines do you subscribe to?
“Guidelines? We don’ need no steenking guidelines!
People borrowing money is good. People borrowing too much money is bad. If F and C really want to make things better they need to raise the minimum down-payment back to 20%, scrap HELOCs, and put hard maximums on mortgage borrowing. This will cause deflation in housing.
Then C lowers interest rates to near zero to raise inflation everywhere else, (wages, manufacturing, consumer goods) And holds them low until the proportion of housing to GDP returns to normal. The intended result would be general inflation in all sectors but housing – reversing what happened in 2005-2007. If done perfectly, there wouldn’t even be a drop in nominal house prices – only real prices.
Many people would loose their life savings, but as Garth has tried so very hard to point out this has already happened and we just haven’t realised it yet.
We need to stop flapping our arms and pull the ‘chute.
What would you do if you were in charge Garth?
robo spyin’ sweeper /eraser apps …geez
WikiLeaks says Stratfor is a corporate CIA –
WikiLeaks publishes security think tank emails
27 Feb 2012
The emails were orginally hacked last year by the network Anonymous.
We promised you those mails and now they’ll finally be delivered. Five million (that’s 5,000,000) emails at your pleasure,” said the Anonymous account.
One analyst poured cold water on Mitt Romney’s election chances, writing in a 2009 email: “Romney can’t make it. Mormons are viewed as Voo Doo.”
=
Rick Santorum admits using robocalls in Michigan primary campaignMitt Romney says tactic by rival marks ‘a new low’ in the campaign for Republican presidential nominee
=
Homeland Security Dept. Pays General Dynamics to Scour Internet for Criticism of its Policies
Monday, February 27, 2012
1.5 million for that ratty little bungalow Garth?
Some one has gone nuts and that is for sure.
Local Governments All over the Country Are Caught up in the Swaps Net
swaps problem: report SEIU org
…”Back in November BusinessWeek told the story of Detroit, a city whose swaps had gone bad. Detroit struck a derivatives deal with UBS (UBS). However the deal came with problematic strings attached. If the city’s credit rating dropped, the banks could opt out of the deal and demand a sizable breakup fee. That’s precisely what happened last year when Detroit saw its credit rating slashed. The banks executed the swap termination clause and the city of Detroit, already struggling was on the hook for $400 million.3
While the press have reported numerous stories of cities like Detroit, caught with high termination payments, the reality is there are hundreds (maybe even thousands) more cities, counties, utility districts, school districts and state governments with swap agreements. These agreements could be ticking time bombs. In any case, in the current interest rate environment they are causing cash strapped local and city governments to pay millions of dollars in unneeded fees directly to Wall Street. In location after location governments are caught between the high fees to the banks and the extraordinary termination fees they would need to get out of the deal.
In Pennsylvania for instance, the banks pitched at least 500 deals involving interest rate swaps, totaling $12 billion. “Most of the transactions – which occurred outside the state’s largest cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh – have been made without public bidding, which means that banks and advisers privately arranged the deals with small school districts.” 4 One in five school districts and 86 other local governments in Pennslyvania have swap agreements according to a report issued by the Auditor General’s office. The Department of Community and Economic Development’s records indicate that 626 swap filings were made in Pennsylvania between October 2003 and June 2009, which related to $14.9 billion in debt.5 (2of 4)
Ham is finding it hard to enter Canada since we capped the immigration applications. No ham = no money. No money coming in to RE = prices will drop. I think my math makes sense.
“You live in a mainstream world, even in NS. — Garth”
For one to have confidence in the “mainstream world” one must believe that governmental “systems” have the publics best interest in mind, at all times.
We try to elect someone of intelligence, experience and integrity and hope he/she will do the correct thing. The problem is, to often, Governmental actions run opposite to this theory. Over and over the public watches as politicians make bad decisions, supporting agendas promoted by a benefiting third party, that made large campaign donations or holds global political influence.
An undisputable, in your face example of this was the 2008 election of Barack Obama and the sweep of the House and Senate.
Hope and change was promised. Unfortunately the path the US was/is following changed little. B.O. Is pretty much doing the same things, George W. did, he just sells it better. When people cried out for the promised, new direction for the country , the Democrats blamed those damn obstructionist Republicans and their change killing filibusters. Here’s the rub, the Dem’s had the ability, for two years, to kill the filibuster at will and ram through any changes they wished.
Shockingly, the MSM did not educate the masses to this fact. The US public voted for change, gave them total control and yet things stayed the same. What motivates one to take part in this pretend patriotic circus, ever again? This time, it will be different? PLEASE!
Many of the Dogs see the world the way it is. They see the now developing, Robo-Calling scandal and think, more of the same. They’ve seen our former Canadian peacekeeping policy, be dropped for an American style of aggression. What the hell do we need single engine F-35s for? Lockheed Martin must have some kick ass lobbyists. They see more prisons we can’t afford and don’t want. How about this ridiculous housing bubble? Gov. created, thank-you very much.
The Faith in our Governmental “systems” has been severely damaged. Abuse someone’s good nature long enough, and eventfully you will loose their trust.
Calling someone a Tinfoiler or Doomer just detracts from the real problems faced by our societies. Others need the rose coloured glasses, because the truth isn’t always pleasant, and that’s fine.
take care,
Blacksheep
Disciple @#214,
The last two lines in your post prove beyond a shadow of a doubt you have officially flipped your lid…
And I quote “And this is the reason,why,when humanity finally grows up and stops being children, that all things will be free”
This is the statement OF a child Sir…
Sigh.
Garth, once in a while I read about or conduct tax and average expense comparisons between Ontario and some perfectly liveable places in the States and wonder why I’m stupid enough to stay here. It’s not like we even have any good sports teams and US micro brewed beer is even better than what we have here.
#33 Truth Hammer.
Good post. I’ve often wondered why we even need a provincial government at all. In Ontario the Provincial government now costs me about 2.5-3K/year more than it did before McGuinty was elected. Why? What improved in my life as a result? We know the answer: Nothing, but civil servants are sure happy.
Hi Garth
My low cost US index fund has done great along with the recovery taking place there. Meanwhile at the Toronto Star they had the gull to write an article Saturday saying the DOW is scary at this level. Anyway, talking to my cousin yesterday. Her husband is a robotic engineer on contract at Chrysler. Apparently word is that they are going to offer a very similar contract to the CAW that CAT did in London. $18 an hour would be top wage at Brampton Assembly. You couldn’t afford a car and an apartment in Brampton on a CAW wage. Unreal what’s happening!
And sales are not the same as prices. Nice try. — Garth
And a disproportionate amount of distressed sales at below market value of foreclosed properties in the U.S. aren’t the same as sales in the GTA right now either. All sales aren’t created equal. Nice try. – Neo
Highest sales level in two years. Stop moaning. — Garth
#214 Disciple.
Good post, but you do realize that if everything was free there would be no reason for most people to get out of bed in the morning? I like Star Trek, but they never managed to actually explain why humans didn’t need money 300 years from now.
[email protected]#48,
Yep, you are right … million, million and a half for some dump in any major Canadian city…
Yep, that’s perfectly normal and sustainable-no cause for a correction here folks, move along – nothing to see here…
DOW above 13,000
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/28/boost-in-u-s-consumer-confidence-lifts-tsx-to-positive-close/
Economist Predicts US Interest Rates To Explode To 3.75% This Year
http://www.businessinsider.com/economist-predicts-us-interest-rates-to-explode-to-375-this-year-2012-2
One interesting thing about living in a foreign country is that I get to see a good deal of English television from the 70s and 80s. Well there is a documentary series graphically reviewing the Second World War entitled “The World at War.” It ran originally around 1975. It is a very good account of WWII (not that I am an acknowledged authority by any stretch of the imagination). Anyhow there is an episode detailing the final hours in Hitler’s bunker. One senior officer observed that there were fits of euphoria as news spread through the bunker that a deal was in the making with the west which would see an alignment with Germany and the new alignment taking up arms against Russia (the Russian Army was then pounding away at the suburbs of Berlin). Well, not to equate the extreme gravity of WWII with this nonsensical bubble we are presently enduring, but I got the same sinking hopeless feeling yesterday reading the rationalizations for the miraculous save from the horrendous impending bubble bursting fallout that I had when I heard about the miraculous and fantastical saves floating around that bunker those grim hours over 50 years ago. It has come to me quite clearly that we are in reality facing an inevitable march towards a relatively catastrophic end to this bubble irrespective of any country’s real or imagined economic recovery. Any hopes of this fabled soft landing likely met their end a long time ago once increases of 25% in house prices were broached eons ago (bubble time that is). After great gnashing of teeth I have now returned to my position held prior to this new American Economic Recovery reported yesterday. BUYER BEWARE. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE COUNTRY OF CANADA. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. BUYER BEWARE.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_lsEAsETdoo
Another reality check that you can cash from TRIM TABS……..5:04 of logic, facts, and reason that blows up the myth of a pre-nascent US recovery.
Biderman = conspiracy theorist. Aren’t you sick of this stuff yet? — Garth
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/no-longer-home-sweet-home-the-ongoing-housing-crisis-and-the-end-of-an-era/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-longer-home-sweet-home-the-ongoing-housing-crisis-and-the-end-of-an-era
“Optimists point to declining home inventories in relation to sales, but they’re looking at an illusion. Those supposed inventories don’t include about 5 million housing units with delinquent mortgages or those in foreclosure, which will soon be added to the pile. Nor do they include approximately 3 million housing units that stand vacant – foreclosed upon but not yet listed for sale, or vacant homes that owners have pulled off the market because they can’t get a decent price for them. Vacancies are up 1m from 2006.”
Turning the corner? Maybe but then again how much of a shadow hangs behind the curtain…….
#175 eaglebay
Sounds like someone wet his pants first day of kindergarten and hasn’t gotten over it.
Hmmm, interesting.
Look up 46 Ranleigh, Toronto. Not a horrible house by any means, steps to Yonge/Lawrence, albeit not on the best street in the area, relatively speaking. Originally posted at $899,000 (still listed this way at http://www.homefinder.ca/listings/236767-46-ranleigh-ave-toronto-ontario-c2281917, tsk tsk lazy realtor)
Reposted on mls.ca today at $678,000. I believe it’s at least the third or fourth price drop on the place. Best example of the insanity slowing down in the 416 that I’ve found so far.
As for the suggestion that house prices outside the cities are different and the bubble fallout will be different well I am ready to concede there will be a difference. That difference being the actual drop in house prices outside Toronto and Vancouver and other cities may well be 100k to 200k (I am pulling numbers out of thin air) while the actual drop in house prices when all is said and done within the bubble leading cities will be over 400k (again another number I pulled out of my butt). My point being, free is very expensive, even free real estate money loaned from the bank (actually especially free money loaned from the bank). While the actual numbers are a mystery yet to be revealed with the passage of time, the party set off by the bubble spread across this great nation and the hangover will as well. I have heard anecodotal yet sobering stats from RE friends in the hinterlands, that interest me, and the party ended a long time ago. The sellers are putting up a brave fight but sales are sliding and as far as I can recall it takes both buyers and sellers to carryout a deal (maybe the new economics have changed that as well). Sticky suggests sellers have a degree of liquidity they do not in fact have as a whole. Sticky is another talking point with the same legs as soft landing. Time will bear all this out. Two years will tell a far different story and I now have a 96% confidence level in what is going to transpire (down 3% from before yesterday’s news admittedly) all this from my own warped estimations of things of course. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA. BUYER BEWARE.
Couldn’t the rise in the markets today, if you want to call it a rise, be tied to the deadline for buying RRSP’s which is on Wednesday?
No. — Garth
I don’t know about comparisons … I think Vancouver is the real deal … just look around you.
This is what 2.5 mill buys someplace else.
http://www.joycerey.com/property_detail.php?property_ID=98
This is what you get in a ‘world class’ city.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11570069&PidKey=1173284378
Really, there is no comparison.
Raincouver looks like the best deal, eh?
#204 TRT on 02.28.12 at 3:36 pm
“Eaglesbay, you want a better education for those that can pay for a private education. Why are you living in Parksvill instead of Phoenix? Oh yeah, free health care on the back of younger generations.”
———-
Phoenix is boring.
I don’t like the heat, hunting and fishing sucks and the chicks are ugly and fat.
I don’t know what the teachers are “learning” in 5 years of schooling but it isn’t what the kids should learn or what the country needs.
Wether the school is public or private is irrelevant. The teachers make the difference. I’ve been to both and the best teacher that I ever had was in public school.
He taught us to think. What a novelty.
Texas not sounding to good these days…from Houston:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2107237/Man-shot-head-singing-wrong-song.html
“A man was killed at a Mexican restaurant in the early hours of this morning after performing an unpopular karaoke song, Houston Police Department said.
He reportedly sang ‘Somos Mas Americanos’ which means ‘We are more American’ before being shot to death by a fellow patron who did not like his choice of song. ”
The shooting happened early on Monday morning at the Ostioneria Mazatlan restaurant, northwest Houston.
You mean like the Dupont subway station two nights ago? Oh, I see. — Garth
#226 Eagle Eyes
There is like a 7 year backlog for investor immigrant applications. The cap only prevents it from growing. Wow…so uninformed!
Already ~250 comments today? Blog dogs are in a frenzy. Realtors are in a panic.
Blog Dog Carney is gonna cull the herd.
Look people, it’s as simple as this, interests rates rise home values will drop. As for American economy improving, it’s only a little factor. Cheap money causes bubbles! Anything else only turns tides very slowly. Until rates rise don’t get you panties in a bunch! LOL. And Garth, I was testing you a couple of postings ago and I thing I pissed you off, sorry. Just wanted to get a reponse:) Keep up the good work.
#220 Van guy on 02.28.12 at 4:40 pm
eaglebay
“Your kids left your booney town so they don’t end like you. They got poor education because you’re stuck on the island.”
My kids were educated in Toronto and Vancouver.
Phd Simon Fraser in biology and 2 in law and medical school.
I get free healthcare. Sucker.
Just moved to Oceanside. From Red Deer. My choice.
#160 eaglebay – Parksville
Oh really? Is that where all the constructive people have gone to.
Just saying.
#229 zeeman1 on 02.28.12 at 6:00 pm
Your parents were extremely proud to immigrate here and were proud Canadians.
Now that Canadians have to make an effort to correct a few political and economic problems you would run away with your tail between your legs.
The US will do great and so will Canada.
There’s one big problem in the US and not many people know about it. It’s not good.
The reason that you’re not moving to the US is that you cannot afford it and they won’t let you in.
If Apple was a country it would be the 20th largest economy in the world.
Like Garth said: Don’t bet against America.
That’s only one US company. Google, Microsoft, Berkshire, GE, IBM, and on and on…
Gee Garth the Pups and Poodles appear none to pleased with the moderately optomistic tone of this most recent blog topic.
Like bashing your head against a brick wall isn’t it? Best have those Amazons pour you a tall cool one and relieve your tension with a soothing neck message.
The inventory of buyers is another consideration along with interest rates. While the lesson of America’s bubble appears to have been completely lost to us Canadians I think not entirely so. Decreased sales will ring a bell and the story that follows will be all to clear to those about to buy. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. SALES ARE FALLING ALL ACROSS CANADA. BUYER BEWARE.
Highest sales level in two years. Stop moaning. — Garth
Lowest prices since 2006. Stop bemoaning. – Neo
Come back when you understand the difference between prices and sales. — Garth
#203 DA: “Actually let me retract that offer. One of the perks of my business is I get to choose who I will work with and who I will not. I am quite sure you are not someone I would want to work with.”
****************
Keep this up and you’ll be out of business….LOL
I think I should start posting under a new handle
“worried doomsters” in the spirit but contrary to that of our resident “worried realtors”. Mine might reduntantly read…
What do you think #108 TurnerNation I think it might just garner a following. Not you to be sure but I think more and more are beginning to see the light. };-)
Hey I’m not saying we are out of the woods quite yet but I’m getting the impression fewer and fewer are believing the incessant crying of “WOLF”. Certainly the word on the street and optimism of those carefully crawling off the fence tells me so.
Yeeeeeee Hawwwwww
Not because I want it to change. I kinda like it the way it was/is. But to have you doomsters eat crow would be a most satisfying sight.
Hey might just happen and sooner than you think. Might already have turned from your best opportunity to your lifelong exclusion. Sorry ‘bout that but you wouldn’t listen as you sought affirmation of your crystal ball foreseeing.
Think I was annoying in the past. Just wait until the market is clearly on my side. Then you’ll really scorn the wrath of the DA.
#254 };-) aka DA
You’re on this blog as often as anyone else.
So which are you — a Pup or a Poodle?
Recovery coming in the USA? Well Garth, I didn’t know you were giving Ron Paul such high odds for winning in November! That’s encouraging but even I am not that optimistic.
#258 };-) aka DA
…to have you doomsters eat crow would be a most satisfying sight.
And to think that just the other day you were chastising someone for their schadenfreude.
#257 Daisy Mae on 02.28.12 at 9:32 pm
I try to not waste any time with those I do not like. Why ever would I do anything else? They just are not worth my time and there is no level of compensation that would compel otherwise.
A Bull… a Pit Bull
I get the impression from this site, which this morning has a nauseating thread, that many Canadians get up every morning hoping America will fail. You could not wish for anything worse. — Garth
—–
That’s a very common attitude of the Marxist collectivist mentality and proof that Canada is not much different in ideology than Soviet Russia. Hate for the bourgeoisie is trademark!
#257 Daisy Mae
I got the joke. Apparently DA didn’t.
Argh I posted on wrong day’s – need maximum doomer effect! Here we go again:
In summary of today’s comments: the economy is doomed due to an Keneysian-Austrian Zimbabwe affect on the leveraged fiat metal system, with inflationary hints towards a de-leveraging of derivative hypothacation. All reflected by the shadow bankers’ deflationary inflation stagflation numbers released today. Did I get it all?
#245 eaglebay – Parksville on 02.28.12 at 8:02 pm…
I think TRT meant Phoenix, AZ not http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Phoenix,_British_Columbia.gif
In case you were confused.
Re: The U.S. Phoenix
Inflation in commodities will steepen, as both geopolitical and environmental realities assert themselves – energy supply disruptions, top soil loss, droughts, floods, etc.
Massive money printing in the U.S. followed by Europe and Asia, and back again to the U.S. have flooded the world financial system, all in order to fund the banks who are mortally threatened by the overhanging derivatives giant. This game will play on, this ‘can kicking’ will persist until it doesn’t, but rest assured that those latest U.S. jobs numbers are not only rigged, but essentially useless as a gauge for economic improvement. McDonalds hiring tens of thousands of people does not equate to real economic improvement, it can only really be called economic consolidation, otherwise known as the ‘race to the bottom’.
There is very little manufacturing left in the U.S. and though it will likely remain an innovation leader, military power and economic juggernaut, the U.S. is undergoing a cycle of renovation, and can and should expect to see increasing economic hardship in the form of higher fuel prices (the U.S. is suburbia), higher food costs, likely higher interest rates in the next several years (not until at least 2014), and lower wages.
Restricted credit will forestall small business growth and social program cuts at the state levels will take more money off the street. As states struggle with growing deficits more fees and taxes will be introduced (already are) further diminishing the sales tax base, and therefore cascading into lowered income taxes. More fees and taxes will act as self strangulation to the fragile economy that grows in imbalance.
Financials may prove secure in the short term as inflation hedges, as the hot money flows move into equities seeking dividends and growing valuations as monetary inflation spurs perceived growth. Equities in general may in fact be buoyed by multinationals with exposure to Asian growth and even domestic companies with footholds in energy or minerals.
Western economies will shrink, the middle class will be reduced by about half over the next few years, poverty will become endemic, while jobs growth largely occurs in the East, where credit is available and state budgets are positive in an uptrend of social and economic activity.
America is entering a decade (or two) of re-evaluation, the landscape of the nation is changing, for those with eyes to see it is obvious, the old rust eaten manufacturing centers are dead and or dying, the financial centers and the peripheral regions of political and market power grow and they survive and thrive as they suck resources to the center from the outer rings of the economic empire of global trade.
Markets still rule in the digital age, and debt is the story of the beginning of the 21st century.
The U.S. debt cannot and will not be paid (long term entitlements included), therefore the U.S. will have to revalue lower, either by decree or by Monetization, they have already chosen Monetization, yet this monetization will only barely be reflected in wages. For the new poor of the once mighty U.S. economy this depression will be not just deflationary in terms of income declines, but also inflationary as far as everyday prices are concerned, as growth in the East fuels domestic consumption in Asia, and the Middle East, while climate disruptions continue to wreak increasing havoc on our last minute global food supply chain (lowest grain stores ever…)
13000 DOW means very little when you compare the DOW to a barrel of oil, or ozt of gold/silver, or bushel of wheat. To compare against tangible goods the DOW is a loser in almost everyway over the last decade, the DOW may be up in nominal terms but in no way can it be perceived as an indicator of improved economic conditions either.
The DOW is also no longer a U.S. only index, as multinationals derive wealth from the global market, so gains which are to come as the Dow moves up and out of 13,000 past 14,000, as specific sectors hedge against inflation is not an indicator of anything resembling economic improvement in the U.S. directly. This entire premise is simplistic and simply not based in reality.
The U.S. economy will continue to shrink for the foreseeable future, under a second term of the Obama I presume more public works will ensue, but so will taxes see a rise for the upper middle class (now called the ‘wealthy’) who will be forced to fund these programs, thereby cutting off more capital funding for private business enterprise and again shrinking the tax base. Once the projects are complete, and the workers go home what is left in most cases is just another government liability which requires further funding. And so the U.S. increasingly cannibalizes itself…until it doesn’t anymore, until it wakes up from its foolishness and rises once again from the ashes, as I’m sure it will.
But that time is far from imminent.
Come back when you understand the difference between prices and sales. — Garth
A healthy market in the U.S. is 6 million sales a month. They are at a revised 4.6 million in January after N.A.R. revised December WAAAAYY down. Don’t patronize me. You can’t on the one hand be critical of C.R.E.A. and how they manipulate data and then when it suits you ignore N.A.R.’s cheerleading. What happens when January is adjusted down like December was. Then what? If you want to look forward. Mortgage applications are down 10% from a year earlier to one of the lowest readings since the housing crash.
Only recovery I believe is Iceland because they actually fixed root causes; like liquidating their insolvent banks instead of bailing them out. The worst is yet to come for the US. But, the crisis arrives first in Europe and Japan. So, the US will benefit from some flight capital – that too will be yet another false prosperity indicator.
Had to skip anything over 2 paragraphs just to get down this far.
The message I’m getting is, US government reports: useless; random internet opinions: ironclad, guaranteed predictions of the future.
Bubble? What bubble??
You mean a 1950’s bugalow in north york is not worth 1.18 Mill?
156% above asking price seems reasonable. Please note the “Endless possibilities”, “newer windows circa 1996”
http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=41588740.089801&t=l&fm=F
In my view, of my view, nothing is iron clad, just obvious, boringly obvious.
Study history, extrapolate, view current trends extrapolate, consider that black swans occur, leave room for modification and make an assessment on what is actually happening, and in most cases, especially in a situation of extremis such that we find ourselves in, the actions of policy makers is quite easily discerned.
Invest in companies with global exposure, look for dividends in producers of real things (energy, minerals), stay on hold with your commodities and commodities producers (we live in a peak production scenario), and trade in and out of currencies with the ebbs and flows if that’s your bag. Government bonds at your own risk, and U.S. realestate only if you can afford an entire block, or two, otherwise nah…I’ll let the phoenix complete its death spiral before I jump on its back looking for elevation.
Gold (and silver) will prove Mr.Turner wrong again, as it has these past several years, but some people just learn the hard way, meaning they have to be right, and when they are not, they assure us that their rightness is just around the corner…anytime now…just over the horizon…
Someone called for an interest rate hike this year, won’t happen, not in any significant way, the system can’t absorb it, the leverage is too enormous – the debt loads too crippling.
I suggested taking capital gains as PMs hit new highs. That was the correct strategy. I surmised from your last, useful post that you were not an ideologue. I surmised wrong. — Garth
“Biderman = conspiracy theorist. Aren’t you sick of this stuff yet? — Garth”
Trim Tabs has been pretty bang on with numbers as of late…..so are you saying that all of his numbers are incorrect, and that what he is saying isn’t true and never happened ?
Please explain.
I said: “Biderman = conspiracy theorist. Aren’t you sick of this stuff yet?” How hard is that to understand? There is no financial crisis ahead, just as there wasn’t the last time he warned. — Garth
Not an ideologue, just a realist. Riding the metals wave for another 7-10 years makes me bullish in the medium term, not an ideologue. Can one even suggest gold or silver without being an ideologue? What about rare earths? How about up and coming fuel cell battery companies? Ideologue?
Gold = Ideologue is far too simplistic, it’s simply the metals time to shine, and when it’s shining too brightly under the halogen zeal of market greed I hope I would be wise enough to acknowledge it. Admitting one’s error is good! Lessens the load of being completely omniscient, I sometimes settle for partial perfection in these matters…
from the Macleans article:
“Earlier this month, the couple settled on a new build, paying “in the mid-to-high 500s.” …….. The couple say they expect prices to crash, but that doesn’t matter much since they plan to be in their home for at least 10 years.”
the greateST fools are here: I need to find one, convince him to borrow me 500k and only pay him back 300k. It ?does not matter…. right? right?
I’m a Boomer. Let me say that with pride: I Am A Boomer ! I’ve been one since 1956. That was a good year,you know. The year that a young hillbilly named “The Pelvis” broke out and ushered us into the modern world. If you don’t like the modern world then blame him. He’s the one that wiggled his hips on TV ( black and white,with the “rabbit ears”) and therefore created all the immortality you see rampant in our society now-a-days. It’s true,it’s history.Look it up. I’m a YOUNG Boomer and was brought by my grade school teachers and parents to be financially responsible. Not like those ” old-fart “Boomers of 63 who did all sorts of naughty things during the “Sixties” and then “settled down” and went into debt and had 3.5 kids and bought big cars and even bigger houses. I grew up as a “conservative” when it came to money-matters. And even in some ways when it comes to my personal life. When you bash “Boomers” just remember there are some of us “B”s that turned okay…No oxygen tanks or cane for me yet, but I have developed the bad habit of mis-placing my glasses from time-to-time…
(Damn, just got the news flash that Davy Jones has died ! Fond memories of 1968 and dancing with the girls to Monkee music…Those were the days…).
Yet you refuse to address the statement that I have asked twice…..”so are you saying that all of his numbers are incorrect, and that what he is saying isn’t true and never happened ?”
People are not correct, or wrong, all the time…..just like Schiff, Celente, myself, et al……and yourself of course……I don’t care if he is a conspiracy theorist, FWIW I am not, but “if there is no financial crisis ahead” I wonder why the “gubmints” of the world are printing Dead Presidents, Euro’s and J.A MacDonald’s like there is no tomorow…….maybe it is to stave of a squirrel shortage ?
[email protected]#276,
Be carefull, Mr. Saskatoon is so wonderful, your halo may be on a little too tight…
[…] Here in pictorial form is what a bubble looks like. I shamelessly stole this from Garth Turner’s article “Probably won’t end well” […]
Our Canadian homeowners in large cities probably have worse numbers than these.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-picture-2012-shadow-inventory-above-500k-only-114k-foreclosures-show-california-net-worth/