Spring fling

When the mortgage guys start running for cover, maybe you should, too. It’s going to be one helluva dramatic Spring. If you own a home and have been thinking about cashing out at the top in March of April, too late. If you’re horny to buy, keep your pants on. Too early.

Just weeks after BMO ignited realtor dreams of a torrid season with its 2.99 mortgage special, fear wafts through the air. Days ago CMHC announced it’s running out of room to insure more high-ratio, high-risk loans – the stuff which has fueled Canada’s housing bubble and swollen agency books to almost a trillion dollars. Warnings of over-valuations and impending danger have come from the Bank of Canada, the IMF and most credible economists.

Now the nation’s second-biggest mortgage lender has quietly moved to protect itself in the event of a housing meltdown. CIBC’s wholesale lending arm, FirstLine – which supplies a torrent of cash to mortgage brokers – is cutting off borrowers who can’t verify their incomes, including small-business owners, commission salespeople and immigrants. The company is also capping loans at $1 million, which is tough news in Vancouver.

This has sparked speculation CMHC will also nix mortgages to the self-employed, at the same time it’s believed F will murder 30-year home loans in his coming federal budget, making inflated houses more unaffordable. Coming after predictions of mayhem in the condo markets of Toronto and Vancouver and deteriorating markets in much of the country, it’s a clear signal real estate is turning prickish.

In fact, nowhere might this be happening faster than the nation’s most delusional city.

In recent hours the crumble of Vancouver real estate has become apparent. Or is it a crash?

Listings have exploded as sales tank. With 20% more houses on the market than a year ago, there’s now an eight-month supply, turning the region into a buyer’s market scant weeks after bidding wars were a daily occurrence. But falling sales clearly show buyers expect prices to be the next casualty.

Sales are near record lows of the last ten years. Deals for detached homes on the west side, in Richmond and West Van are down between a third and 45%. Overall, sales plunged 13% from 2011 and 18% from 2010. Prices have dropped since hitting a high in the summer. Flippers are being stuck with properties they can’t move. Half of condo owners now selling, who bought in the last four years, are losing money. Sales of detached properties across the region just crashed 16% from last January.

In other words, in a city where real estate’s a god, where families shell out an average of 70% of income on shelter, where the savings rate is negative, basement boarders are desperately needed to stay afloat and debt is over the top, an ugly truth emerges. It’s not different, after all. There is a limit to house porn and financial insanity. And this is it.

Vancouver, whether you have to live there or not, is a harbinger of the national housing market. It shows in extremis what happens when emotion trumps logic, lenders lose their marbles, the media fails and an entire population believes in unicorns. It’s impossible to sustain a SFH average of $1.1 million in a city where family income averages $83,130. Nothing – not planeloads of hot Asians, cheap mortgages or a new mountain range covered in chocolate – is going to save this market from itself.

Just imagine the exposure major lenders have in that city. A 20% correction would plunge tens of thousands of families into negative equity, just at a time when the overall economy is struggling. Unemployment’s rising, incomes are running behind inflation, the forestry is a mess and construction jobs are being shed daily.

BC – all of it now, including the Island and Lower Mainland, plus the Fraser and Okanagan valleys – is shaping up to be the Ground Zero for Canada’s housing crunch. The impact will not be contained there. Time will show this is as unstoppable here as it was in the US – where chi-chi towns like Seattle and Boston thought they were immune. Until they weren’t.

But here’s all you need to know. Lenders are hustling to protect themselves. Bankers are worried. The government’s poised.

With luck we’ll avoid what’s befallen Americans. But what looms will not be short nor trite. For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.

 

263 comments ↓

#1 Van guy on 02.01.12 at 10:47 pm

Great post!! First!!

#2 TurnerNation on 02.01.12 at 10:47 pm

Is this Shelly Cooter’s for-sale house?

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/gimme-shelter/2012/02/01/house-of-the-week-17-lauderdale-drive/

ADDRESS: 17 Lauderdale Drive

NEIGHBOURHOOD: St. Andrew–Windfields

AGENT: Barbara Banks, Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage

PRICE: $2,998,000

THE PLACE: A suburban five-bedroom that’s plain-Jane on the outside, swanky and sophisticated on the inside—with a two-storey open-concept living room, hardwood floors, and a floating glass-railed staircase.

BRAGGING RIGHTS: The tennis court, swimming pool, putting green and sauna basically mean you’ll be living in your own country club (without the sky-high membership fees or any sort of Rodney Dangerfield antics).

#3 Jack Lemming on 02.01.12 at 10:47 pm

FIRST —- Read it and weep!

#4 shanks on 02.01.12 at 10:47 pm

FIRST! still got it…

#5 buylow on 02.01.12 at 10:48 pm

third!

#6 KingBubbles on 02.01.12 at 10:50 pm

Go Jets

#7 Jack Lemming on 02.01.12 at 10:52 pm

Darn! #3

#8 DUI on Money Road on 02.01.12 at 10:54 pm

“….when emotion trumps logic, lenders lose their marbles, the media fails and an entire population believes in unicorns.”

Man, you’re spinning gold! lol

Always witty and entertaining, I love it.

#9 Van guy on 02.01.12 at 10:54 pm

Wtf? You changed the picture so fast? That new pic is a house that is worth $750,000 fore east side, $1,500,000 for west side.

#10 Mister Obvious on 02.01.12 at 10:56 pm

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”
———

Done. Thanks big guy.

#11 DUI on Money Road on 02.01.12 at 10:56 pm

ps. got a letter from TD today, my unsecured line of credit interest rate is going up 3.25% (or, in other words, about 80% of the current rate)

Sick……

#12 Gerry on 02.01.12 at 10:58 pm

“I hope you did.”

We did, Garth, two years ago. We started reading your blog after selling our condo and subsequently losing six bidding wars on SFHs in Vancouver West. So here we sit, renting, waiting. If prices tank then we’ll be sitting pretty, in no small part thanks to you. Peace and best wishes.

#13 not 1st on 02.01.12 at 11:06 pm

Garth, I’m out and liquid from cowtown, but still sitting on a residence in sask thats gone all bubbly.

Question: Is there still time to make a respectful exit here in Sk in the fall yet? We usually lag the rest of the country.

#14 Debt Free in Van on 02.01.12 at 11:07 pm

FFFFFFFF iiiiiiiiiirrrrrr …

Nah, just kidding.

Garth, you wrote:

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”

Well, we certainly did! Sold our crappy 900 sq ft condo in Kits in June of last year for an insane sum of money, and are now sitting on a quarter mill, which has grown a tidy 5% since then (despite the nasty summer of fear in the markets). We’re well diversified in REITS, ETFs, preferred shares, etc and are renting a house for half what it would cost to carry it, even if we had sunk all our cash into the down payment.

I know there’s a lot of sarcastic cynicism in your comments section, but in all sincerity, I thank you, sir. I thank you for your advice, and for setting us free of charge upon the path towards a proper financial education.

Thank you!

#15 Montrealer on 02.01.12 at 11:09 pm

“Nothing – not planeloads of hot Asians, cheap mortgages or a new mountain range covered in chocolate – is going to save this market from itself.”

mountain range covered in chocolate, now you’re talking! Might be the only reason to convince me to move there…

#16 Tyler on 02.01.12 at 11:10 pm

Yup, sold though not on your advice Garth. I did it based upon my own logic, which screams that the market will correct. After typing ‘Toronto housing bubble’ recently into google, I found your blog and follow it. Good stuff you have here. I thank you sir :)

#17 Stuck on the Island on 02.01.12 at 11:12 pm

It’s a ghost town around here. Open houses with no traffic. I was lucky to get the two parties through my place over the weekend.

I just want out. I can’t even give my house away. What a mistake, I should have just stayed in Cowtown.

#18 Ex-Cowtown on 02.01.12 at 11:19 pm

For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”
———

Done. Thanks big guy.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

X2

#19 Fifty Percent Correction Predictor on 02.01.12 at 11:19 pm

Yeeeeeeeeeee….. Haaaaaaaa………….!

#20 East Van on 02.01.12 at 11:20 pm

Real estate is only one thing to worry about in BC. We have the largest gap between rich and poor, and the highest child poverty rate in Canada. We have net migration out of the province as young people leave for places where you can afford to live. We have a dysfunctional govt that must now figure out how to pay for the defunct hst. We have a weak job market and low wages. We are becoming more and more dependant on shipping raw logs to China from what is left of our pine beetle killed forests to stay afloat.

This will probably not end so good. I think.

#21 Garth's Younger (and Better-Looking) Brother - Troy T on 02.01.12 at 11:21 pm

All I can think of is this video – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

Game over, man. Game over.

#22 tkid on 02.01.12 at 11:22 pm

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”

Done, and thank you.

#23 Seven Stars and Orion on 02.01.12 at 11:22 pm

I’ve told the story of a young coworker of mine on this blog before. He’s already got “second” properties purchased fraudulently with 5% down, lying about them not being for investment property. The latest mortgage rate excitement has him geared up to buy again. He wants my family to rent one of his beautiful townhouses in “trendy” Aylmer (Gatineau). He’ll even through in a beater car because we live in Ottawa now, and hoof it to work etc. At $1400, it would be cash flow neutral for him. I asked him what he would do when rates normalize, heck, what if they go up half a point!?! Subsidize me?
There was a pregnant pause and a blank stare, as if I told him that Santa Claus isn’t real.

#24 AWD on 02.01.12 at 11:23 pm

“I hope you did.”

We did 3 years ago and now rent a fabulous 200 acre property and are as happy as can be!

#25 Boombust on 02.01.12 at 11:30 pm

People I work with here in Vancouver’s eastern suburbs (Tri-Cities) are starting to “talk”. People are actually beginning to realize that it is NOT different here on the West Coast.

There are some who are still clinging to the fiction, however, but, the NEW MEME (the realistic one!) is beginning to spread.

It feels like D-Day for those who have waited patiently.

#26 Puzni on 02.01.12 at 11:31 pm

I live in vancouver downtown(rent) and what you also see is a lot of ” Price Reduced” signs, however the building cranes on main street are everywhere. With so many condos being build its almost hard to believe that anyone expects market to slow down here. But I really guess it’s the same picture that happened all over the states. Love this bog.

#27 Devore on 02.01.12 at 11:32 pm

For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.

Done and done. Although I sold 1.5, nearly 2 years ago, it wouldn’t have made any difference. At least the market was still hot-ish back then. Ok, maybe lukewarm. Yes, it was a condo. Yes, it was in Vancouver. Yes, I made no money on it.

#28 Junius on 02.01.12 at 11:32 pm

My fav line from today’s post:

“FirstLine – which supplies a torrent of cash to mortgage brokers – is cutting off borrowers who can’t verify their incomes, including small-business owners.”

I know a number of small business owners who turned speculators and flippers because of their ability to acquire large loans based on poorly reviewed business records.

One guy has a small business that employs 6 people. He probably pulls out 80-90K per year but the business grosses 2-3 million. No asset value. All service work.

With the help of his crack dealer (mortgage broker) he was able to acquire more than a million dollars in debt to finance a house and another $200K for home renos after the purchase. All this with less than $200K in equity. I was shocked.

When I met her at his house opening party she told me that this was just “how it was done.” All very routine.

How many of these are out there? I guess we going to start finding out in 2012.

#29 Retired Boomer - WI on 02.01.12 at 11:33 pm

Garth,

Very impressed by the early posters who have taken your advice, and SURVIVED. Nobody can tell for absolute where the Canadian, or for that matter the American RE markets will go over the next 12-36 months.

For many markets I know your statements of an average 15% melt will be shocking enough for both the newly soon to be underwater buyer, as well as late acting old boomer selling his legacy home.

Appears the smartest money now out of RE. Always thought the readers of this blog were smarter than average, tonights “Thank You” posts show that.

What was that old C&W song, the Gambler, “You got to know when to hold ’em. know when to fold ’em.”

Nicely played for those not stuck in a house!!

They’ll always be more opportunities to play with RE later.

#30 YYC on 02.01.12 at 11:36 pm

Garth, great blog. Enjoy reading it every day.

Did you just receive some of these Vancouver stats or is it just an accumulation of the news over the last few weeks?

The most alarming thing I see is the amount of poor prognosis in the media. The talk of the bubble bursting and overall credit insanity is now printed daily. Not long before regular Joe sees that. Then the amateur investors will get cold feet and list, then lower and lower again just to get out.

Steaming fresh numbers. — Garth

#31 Hoof - Hearted on 02.01.12 at 11:38 pm

Thanks Garth….

Wouldn’t even be aware of these details of not for you and your trained squirrel researchers..

Anyway in Richmond BC..drove by a recently completed Condo complex….they are throwing in a BMW lease with a sales. Can you start to smell blood?

BTW would appreciate filling in the blanks FROM YOUR SOURCES re WHY they are still building here in BC, new projects keep being announced. WTF?

#32 Victoria on 02.01.12 at 11:40 pm

They are still saying that Victoria is immune from any housing decline and immune from any economic instability. They are saying it is protected. They don’t know why but it is.

Houses are already down by 10 per cent.

Who is ‘they’? — Garth

#33 Ozy - Is going to get very ugly suddenly on 02.01.12 at 11:43 pm

Is going to get very ugly suddenly, you wake up one morning and every buyer decices to wait (the word is out there, housing is guaranteed to drop)…everyone is going to wait for CORNERED/MONOPOLIZED PRICES to decrease (good news – together with property taxes), soon therafter….a BIG P-O-P…what was that!

#34 The Thing in the Basement on 02.01.12 at 11:43 pm

“…..the Island…..is shaping up to be the Ground Zero…”
– Garth.

Repeat after me:

Victoria is not the island

Credits will do

These are not the droids you’re looking for.

18 Stuck. You repeat too. Hope it helps. Seen it before. Twice.

http://www.vireb.com/assets/images/pdf/01-jan_12_sales_summary.pdf

#35 D on 02.01.12 at 11:43 pm

Garth, I’m worried.

I was doing some trades in my spouse’s modest rsp account. I parked about ten grand of her portfolio into something called the TD Ultra short term bond fund.

Now, after reading your post yesterday, I am terrified that this thing is loaded with covered bonds from the banks and CMHC.

It will cost 245 bucks in penalties if I redeem it inside of 30 days. Should I sit on it for a month or bail now and take an immediate 2.5 percent loss?

The rest of her portfolio is split between Canadian small cap(materials and energy), US large cap dividend, REITs, and laddered-bond ETFs.

Really enjoying Money Road…so glad we sold our house and are renting.

#36 NYCer on 02.01.12 at 11:49 pm

Def liquid, investing and got out almost 10 months ago. About to discuss rental agreements with my landlord. Was thinking 3-month intervals now so I don’t have to see my landlord often. I am also doing some research on going rates in my area to ensure my landlord doesn’t try to raise the rent.

Thanks!

#37 Smoking Man on 02.01.12 at 11:52 pm

Ok dogs Duke of Devon 5:30 Tomorow

Gartho, Liquidy problem in the mortgage biz coming.
Came from a good source

The beared one about to become king………..

Might as well been preaching this shit for years … Finaly redemption. I am throwing in the towal,
Im am now a card toting bubble head

Beer?

you know where we will be

#38 HDJ on 02.01.12 at 11:56 pm

Blog plus tweets!! All this info….it’s like sticking your head out the window of a fast moving car!

I ride a Harley. Bugs taste good. — Garth

#39 The American on 02.01.12 at 11:57 pm

My oh my…. What a difference only a week makes. Many have been presenting he “what if” scenarios, and many have done the right thing – sell, sell, sell. Now, the downfall begins. That’s right. First quarter of 2012 is when credible publications take note and publish the epic proportions of the Canadian housing bubble. There is no soft landing, and unlike corrections of Canadian past, this is going to be huge, hard-hitting, and drawn out over a period of years. Not weeks or months. Years. Please get out NOW, even if it means writing a check at closing. It will be better than draining your life’s savings at closing only two years from now. Do not let te food of listings deter you from doing the right thing today. Yes, a loss is certain for many, but not as certin as bankruptcy when it corrects over 40%. Call me whatever you like now, but you will wish you had sold sooner than later. There is no rebound for at least the next 7 years in Vancouver. Canada, at least 5 years. I must disclose I am being extremely conservative. That is all I can say.

#40 The American on 02.01.12 at 11:58 pm

Working fom my iPad. Forgive the misspellings and grammatical errors.

#41 CHANGES on 02.02.12 at 12:00 am

Mr.Turner

Thank you

#42 Lucky Me on 02.02.12 at 12:01 am

to #12

I got similar letter from TD, however my rate is going down 3% :)

#43 fiendish Thingy on 02.02.12 at 12:02 am

Since the peak last summer, it has been like watching the Hindenburg in slow motion; we are at the point now where the banks and media are jumping to the tarmac below rather than risk certain immolation by remaining onboard with the realtors, who are certain that someone just forgot to extinguish their cigar in the smoking lounge.

Btw, Garth-
We’ve been liquid and lovin’ it since June 2010!

#44 Canadian Watchdog on 02.02.12 at 12:04 am

Boots on the ground video from Australia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJB4frVnilQ

#45 45north on 02.02.12 at 12:12 am

In recent hours the crumble of Vancouver real estate has become apparent.

I sense a wave sweeping across the country from west to east. As the wave passes over each city, sales slow and inventory rises. As it passes over Toronto, half the households in Woodbridge will be underwater. Half the households in Scarborough will be underwater. High ground will be neighbourhoods where the households actually own their houses.

#46 Gord In Vancouver on 02.02.12 at 12:13 am

Great post, Garth. Thanks.

#47 BCing You on 02.02.12 at 12:14 am

There’s a guy in my office who inherited his mother’s house on the west side of Vancouver. He is on the verge of retirement. He listed the 90 year old house last week for over 2.5 million and got an offer at his asking price. He turned it down on a recommendation from his realtor until after the first open house. It’s only been a week but so far, no firm offers.

Perhaps his greed has caused him to miss his opportunity?

#48 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 12:26 am

#35 The Thing in the Basement

http://www.vreb.org/pdf/vrebmss.pdf

#49 lookoutbelow on 02.02.12 at 12:26 am

Thanks Garth, it’s acute observations like this that may yet keep my marriage together.

Living in a 1000 sq ft box in he sky and paraphrasing of your blogs to her by yours truly, is driving my wife to her wit’s end.

Here’s hoping that the longest bull market in housing in Lotus land is finally beginning to wilt.

#50 Van guy on 02.02.12 at 12:27 am

To all fellow bulls in Van, let’s start the month with 38 sales and 296 new listings. It’s been a happy new year alright!

#51 Snowboid on 02.02.12 at 12:27 am

“…this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid…”

Yes, and thank you again.

As our FA is starting to get annoyed at our constant references to your wise investment advice – we will be in formal contact when we return from the land of sand, sun and scorpions

Hopefully you take on small clients.

I have time for everyone. — Garth

#52 Preciousss on 02.02.12 at 12:30 am

Could we see the end of property taxes, transfer tax and death of the MLS as we know it? Move to auction, barter, horny house swapping.

Perhaps a progressive thinker will release those trial balloons.

Make room for the outlaws and kinfolk. The main floor is about to get busy.

#53 waiting on 02.02.12 at 12:34 am

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”
we did, in May last year, and after doing some research, and taking a reality check and reading your words of wisdom, are still happily renting.

#54 Abitibi Doug on 02.02.12 at 12:42 am

Tonight on the CBC’s The National there was a clip about the housing bubble. Like many observers, they also tried to calm fears of a bubble with all those reasons why it’s different here in Canada, like all that hot Asian money flowing in. Doesn’t it remind you of how just after the Costa Concordia (now renamed the Costa Lotsa) ran aground, the crew (minus the captain, who was already out and on shore) were assuring the passengers that there was nothing serious to worry about?

#55 Boomer on 02.02.12 at 12:44 am

Sold in 2010 after reading this blog, analyzing where I was and where I wanted to be AND planning to retire. Best decision ever. I now rent and my total costs are $1500.00 a month, and I mean all costs except food, gas and entertainment. Sweet! Liquid, invested in balanced portfolio and getting income. Again sweet! Thanks to Garth and my fee only FA. Life is good. I wish the same for all of the “blog dogs”
BTW Garth, it must be satisfying to see that a lot of your “dogs” have followed your advice. Good job, soldier on!

#56 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 02.02.12 at 12:47 am

I fell in a puddle, spilt my drink and peed myself! Is that liquid enough?

#57 harden on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am

Thanks Garth.

Van Guy, trust you agree “Larry” lost all credibility with his flamin’ Dragon post today, I predict his site will be down faster than prices on the westside.

#58 carlyle on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am

Sold my milton town one year ago … no regrets life feels alot better being able to move whenever i want …. will a crashing housing market in toronto also mean crashing rents Garth (are the two corelated?)

#59 len on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am

The Calgary pumpers addressing year over year declines in prices and sales of single houses had this to say:

“A lower number of sales is not uncommon for the month of January”
year over year decline! I was hoping to see an addition like: this January is different; the temperatures have been extremely mild, causing this trend! :) Cheers!

#60 JohnG on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am

Funny things, these economics. They can defy fundamentals and logic for a long time. Then, almost overnight, you wake up and things are different.

J

#61 mad vancouver on 02.02.12 at 12:51 am

Vancouver numbers
Today:
New Listings 305
Price Changes 74
Sold Listings 38

Last year:
New Listings 350
Price Changes 57
Sold Listings 210

The dragon is dead.

#62 AlexanderTheGreat on 02.02.12 at 12:51 am

All of you are forgetting one thing. This is the YEAR OF THE DRAGON! The chinese will be buying 10 houses each, because this is a lucky year. It only comes every 12 years! What a load of BS the realtors are spreading in Vancouver. You know they are getting scared when they start talking like this. You speak with any realtor right now and they will tell you that it is a great time to buy as a buyer… record low interest rates. Same old garbage being spit out left and right. Garth, you echo’d my thoughts exactly… as I said in your comment section on your last blog, it’s TOO LATE for people to get out, the sell off has already started.

As a side note, I inherited some property (my 1/4 share worth approx 80k, not much) in mid-2010. The executor of the estate was a bumbling idiot and sat on the property for nearly 1.5 years, just because he was too slow/stupid to put things through probate. Anyways, finally he listed the place in Sep/11 and it just sold in Jan/12. It was listed for $550k to start with and ended up selling for $510k. It is in a strata complex and all the neighbours are mad because it sold so low… they think he undervalued the property. Anyways, lucky as hell to be out of that property! I had no control over that one!

#63 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 12:53 am

#12 DUI on Money Road

ps. got a letter from TD today, my unsecured line of credit interest rate is going up 3.25% (or, in other words, about 80% of the current rate)

Sick……

– — –

They also have preferred shares to maintain some payments on… lol

#64 Suede on 02.02.12 at 12:57 am

While I agree that housing markets are poised to deflate – especially here in the ‘Couv – one must always be careful when everyone is on the same page and expects the same result.

Cliche #1: The market can always stay irrational longer than you can stay rational

Cliche #2: Just because something is inevitable, doesn’t mean it’s imminent

Suede’s Street Report:

A colleague of mine just bought a 1200sf apartment in Burnaby. Asking price $450k, selling price $405k. Nice haircut.

Welcome to the Jungle baby….

#65 Oli on 02.02.12 at 1:00 am

I am so fortunate to have come across Garths book sand this blog. I would be ready to make a move, but as much as I present these facts to my fellow collegues and friends, no one believes me. Everyone is sold on this saskatchewan advantage bull shit and the ciscor corridor which put us as the largest inland port in North America..so every thinks I am a loon when I try to tell them some of the arguements presented in these blogs. Please give me some more ammunition specific to our province.

#66 Carp on 02.02.12 at 1:06 am

Done … X2!

Liquid, renting and happy …

Thanks Garth and co!

#67 Jane on 02.02.12 at 1:06 am

For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”

Done. Thank you for your words of wisdom, doses of reality and fabulous sense of humor! We sold and are glad to be liquid. So many choices now available…

X2

#68 mikling on 02.02.12 at 1:09 am

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/Video+Housing+market+expected+keep+rising/6085926/story.html

#69 CoreyMC on 02.02.12 at 1:10 am

#18 Stuck on the Island on 02.01.12 at 11:12 pm
It’s a ghost town around here. Open houses with no traffic. I was lucky to get the two parties through my place over the weekend.

I just want out. I can’t even give my house away. What a mistake, I should have just stayed in Cowtown.

——————————————————————–

What were you thinking, should of sold in Cowtown and rented on the Island. Vancouver Island is a waste of money, even more delusional that Vancouver since there is completlely nothing there that supports real estate other than cheep money! Did you listen to the stupid brother inlaw? I no I didn’t, since I’m smarter that than retarded hick. How long have you read this blog?

#70 cramar on 02.02.12 at 1:13 am

I ride a Harley. Bugs taste good. — Garth

Not in winter.

#71 eagle eyes on 02.02.12 at 1:13 am

Lots of listings are priced at government assessed values or below assessed. It is a mass exodus now – let’s see who gets trampled and who gets out. There is fear now on the faces of some realtors.

My sister in law bought her place 5 yrs ago, and saw her house price double last year. She tells me that she isn’t worried because the prices cannot drop below what she paid. Only time will tell.

#72 librarykaren on 02.02.12 at 1:14 am

I’m starting to get a bit pissed off thinking about the fact that, despite the fact I have stayed out of the market I am nonetheless stuck subsidizing, through taxes, the idiots whom the government allowed to enter the market. And after witnessing the endless bailouts around the globe, I also think this will not end. CMHC is holding up a red flag, the loaning space is running out…and I’m afraid that right around the corner F is waiting to increase the limits. How can he not?? It’s starting to sound a bit Fannie Mae. Might be time for a rousing “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take anymore.”

#73 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.02.12 at 1:16 am


A Spring Fling with Chili Crackshack or McMansion on Hemmorhoids. Thanks, but I’ll pass! Good post.

Guess there are still a few meatheads living wild and crazy lives, but a sense of realism seems to have descended on the masses. Not before time.
*
Old Age and OAS, and Smart Saving; Counterfeit Economy and Counterfeters run the world; Building An Emergency Fund; James Cameron Buying 2,600 acres and moving to NZ. I wonder why? Facebook Do Not Buy. “That’s all I need to know and it should be all you need to know — the company filed the S-1 as soon as they detected this slowdown in December.”; Deja Vu all over again? China is destroying the US financially, hence Iran and the South China Sea; The Next Generation isn’t stupid. They have to be taught simple lessons on how to look after one’s self. Schools don’t do that, so parents must; 10K – 15K Layoffs by American Airlines. I thought they were broke anyway; 7:49 clip More of the same economic messes; Davos The few get wealthier by causing ‘ordered’ chaos in the world, and Davos again Pushing public water into private hands; Home Prices fall more than expected.

Economists don’t understand; Austerity A primer; N. Roubini To ignore or not? Dodd – Frank in one chart; MF Global Missing money traced to banks; US$4 Tri. Deficit in 2012; Lending Less; French consumption drops; Oil Charts and figures, top producers; Credit Suisse Employment – old age; Making A Fortune from nothing;
*
Censorship by Google What is the point of having free blogs if censoring them happens? Plus Twitter censoring, as ordered by the govts.; NASA This would go with the 25th Cycle, supposed to happen in a decade or so, and The Sun (and sun spots) cause CC; Proven Stooge Five reasons Obumma is one; Spiderman Exists! Scientists are working on it; 2:02 clip War on Terror false charge for regime change in Iran; Food Storage and the six enemies; Cannibalism, or words that that effect.

#74 mad vancouver on 02.02.12 at 1:16 am

“I’m not confident we can dodge the bullet and that there won’t be a correction in the Canadian housing market in the not too distant future,” said Madani, now an economist with Capital Economics.

He predicts a 25 per cent decline in prices over the next few years and calls the Bank of Montreal’s recent description of the Canadian housing market as a balloon that will deflate rather than a bubble that will pop, “semantics.”

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1125067–mortgage-pullback-hints-of-housing-crisis-in-canada

#75 Terra No-more on 02.02.12 at 1:20 am

Here in the GTA I wonder if 1 Bloor’s ever gonna get built. The US market is a helluva lot closer to bottom than ours and durables like new car sales are ticking up.

#76 Ronaldo on 02.02.12 at 1:20 am

http://jassalrealtyteam.com/?p=52

Remember this one Garth? 2556 Trinity. Still for sale. Price is up a bit. Only $899,000. Now that is a crack shack if I have ever seen one.

#77 Ronaldo on 02.02.12 at 1:24 am

http://www.julianaho.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/544#viewdetail 2556 Trinity.

Oh, and here it is again. This time for $1.3 big ones. Now, that is a mansion.

#78 Ogopogo on 02.02.12 at 1:25 am

Halleluja, Money Road has arrived! I’m locking myself up this weekend to read it. Barely into the book and already I can see how dangerously close to the precipice we’ve come since the 2008 crash:

“In fact, Canadian families soon had average debt equal to 140% of disposable income–rivalling those profligate Americans we love to feel superior to” (p. 12).

Wow, we’re now at 153% and climbing in just a few years. We are screwed, minus our host and smart blog dawgs of course.

#79 cramar on 02.02.12 at 1:28 am

#48 BCing You on 02.02.12 at 12:14 am

There’s a guy in my office who inherited his mother’s house on the west side of Vancouver. He is on the verge of retirement. He listed the 90 year old house last week for over 2.5 million and got an offer at his asking price. He turned it down on a recommendation from his realtor until after the first open house. It’s only been a week but so far, no firm offers.

Perhaps his greed has caused him to miss his opportunity?

———————–
Greed is a good word for it!

I’m beginning to think people in Vancouver must be insane. For that money, you could retire, spend winters in Hawaii, get a new custom home in another part of Canada, and still have $2.0 million invested. Must be something in the air in B.C. that effects brain cells.

#80 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 1:29 am

Garth,

assuming these three things play out this way:

1. the Canadian housing market melts 5-15% on average

2. the EU comes to terms without dragging us down globally

3. the “good guys” don’t turn the “bad guys” country into a glass parking lot

Where do you see the TSX by year end?
(and please don’t say on Bay Street) lol

Strictly as an opinion. Not as investment advice.

#81 Island girl on 02.02.12 at 1:33 am

Makes me so glad we sold our house, didn’t make anything, but now there is no weight hanging around our necks! We hope to buy again, but we have a price we’ll be willing pay and particulars on what we want and we are sticking to them and we haven’t found it yet!

#82 Stuck on the Island on 02.02.12 at 1:34 am

#70 – No, I should have just stuck with my instinct and stayed in Calgary instead of listening to the wife and making the move.

At any rate, fingers crossed we sell and can escape this spring.

#83 Paolo on 02.02.12 at 1:43 am

Has the train wreck finally begun?

#84 The Thing in the Basement on 02.02.12 at 1:46 am

49 Timing – thanks. I quickly looked at the SF total sales since about 02. Quick conclusion is that Victoria was hotter sooner than the rest of the island and plateaued for a longer period of time. It still seems to have that
attraction for many. I’d rather live up island and visit Vic.

#85 Bobby on 02.02.12 at 1:50 am

You have just got to love the comments in the Victoria Real Estate Stats, ” interest rates are low and they are keeping our members busy with showings”.
With only 372 sales and about 1100 realtors, my guess is that many are probably standing around doing nothing.
Who writes this stuff?

#86 Soper Eats Babies on 02.02.12 at 1:53 am

For the love of God, please keep the glee in check.

Take it from someone who’s been waiting patiently for this thing to tank—since 2007, to be precise.

Yes, some early numbers may be in, but “celebrating” is premature. We’ve seen this movie before.

Do not underestimate government, CMHC, BoC, developers, banksters, realturds et al.

They will do everything in their power to keep the housing party going. What choice do they have?

They have created a monster and it must be fed. If it goes south, betrayal.

Get ready for added purchasing incentives, even lower mortgage rates, an expanded RRSP home buyer plan, etc etc…

At least until Ms. Cooper sells the manor home. No wonder she’s desperate for balloons.

Anyway, Flapperty’s upcoming budget should give some indication of the level of concern about this in Ottawa.

The spring market will just about be upon us by then.

For now, “in the absence of a pin”, we watch and we wait.

#87 Waterloo Resident on 02.02.12 at 1:54 am

Who cares about houses, my greatest question is this:

Where are all these 18 to 24 year olds earning those massive $90,000 to $250,000 yearly salaries while the rest of us are suffering with far less ?

#88 Van guy on 02.02.12 at 2:07 am

#58 harden on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am

Thanks Garth.

Van Guy, trust you agree “Larry” lost all credibility with his flamin’ Dragon post today, I predict his site will be down faster than prices on the westside
————————————————————

Larry is getting roasted big time. He knows there’s a correction in place but he still posts up bull shit stuff. His blog is full of bears now as all the bulls are busy trying to sell and get the hell out! This year of the dragon will breath fire over Vancouver and burning way values.

Gung hay fat choy!!

#89 eagle eyes on 02.02.12 at 2:11 am

Can someone please tell me the difference between the real estate flipping in the past 10 yrs and Maddoff’s ponzi scheme?

#90 Devore on 02.02.12 at 2:25 am

Wow, REBGV dodges a big one this month, with two monster $15,000,000+ sales saving their bacon, bumping average up MoM and flat YoY. Would have been down $50k without those two sales.

#91 kc on 02.02.12 at 2:32 am

“A 20% correction would plunge tens of thousands of families into negative equity, just at a time when the overall economy is struggling. Unemployment’s rising, incomes are running behind inflation, the forestry is a mess and construction jobs are being shed daily.”

Riddle me this… A computer company with 300 employees complete with a room full of servers is worth $100 BILLION ??!! (IPO FB) (which is destined to crash and burn as fast as Vancouver RE) … And a pulp and paper company [catalystpaper] who produces 1.9 million tonnes combined pulp/paper is forced into creditor protection. Amounts owing $810Million. Value of Cat = $400M BIG PROBLEMS.

This company is huge and will take down many other smaller companies with it in unpaid credit bills. Incase you are wondering if you live in a west coast town with one of their operations, (http://www.catalystpaper.com/about/our-facilities ).

21 East Van on 02.01.12 at 11:20 pm

“We are becoming more and more dependent on shipping raw logs to China from what is left of our pine beetle killed forests to stay afloat.”

Lobby the BC Liberals to stop raw log exports. However, keep in mind that Burns Lake sawmill needs a quota or guaranteed log supply for them to rebuild. Guess what?? that mill was ramped up in production to cut bug killed wood, and was to be scaled back eventually anyway as the killed trees were consumed. Too many double edged swords to juggle here.

If the mill is rebuilt without the quota it is tossing good money after bad. Here on the coast there is a huge log shortage and the BC LIBS could care less how many people are out of work for the next few weeks due to fiber shortages.

cheers or tears take your pick.

#92 Devore on 02.02.12 at 2:32 am

#70 CoreyMC

Easy there tiger.

But it’s true. No reason to buy in Victoria. Most of its SFH housing stock falls somewhere between old and ancient, the average house is a veritable black hole to shovel your money into… errrr, I mean, pride of ownership and building equity! Anything decent to come on market is instantly hoovered up.

#93 EJ on 02.02.12 at 2:39 am

#55 Abitibi Doug on 02.02.12 at 12:42 am

They gave the same reassurance to the passengers of the Titanic as well.

There was also a certain black knight who assured us “it was just a flesh wound.”

#94 Tim on 02.02.12 at 2:40 am

IF the tide is turning here in Van, then it is a grindingly slow turn. Prices are still absurdly high. Despite that, I’d prefer to live here and rent that move to Hogtown and sit in traffic and smog all day. A twenty percent raise wouldn’t be worth having to endure those brutal humid summers or the cold winters. I’d rather see trees than concrete…

#95 Tim on 02.02.12 at 2:43 am

Re #16
no, stay in that delusional, debt-fueled province and hope to hell you can continue to blackball the Feds for more money so you can keep your economy afloat and so you can buy snow removal gear

#96 John G. Young on 02.02.12 at 2:45 am

It seems there’s a different vibe in the comments tonight — lots of people thanking Garth for saving their hides. And overall the comments don’t seem nearly as nasty as they have in weeks past.
I also notice that comments from REALTORS (sorry, can’t be bothered looking the registered trademark thingy is on my keyboard) are conspicuously absent.
Maybe those two things are connected?
Thank you Garth. It gladdens my heart to see that there are still people out there who want to help their fellow man.

#97 Peter Pan on 02.02.12 at 2:47 am

“In other words, in a city where real estate’s a god”
—————–
Mr. Turner, a slight spelling error…. This is Vancouver… real estate is always refered to as a deity… however it is always spelled GOD, not the dimunitive “god”. Real estate elects mayors and destroys political parties. It subjugates and elevates. Please correct future references.

Thank you.

#98 Ogopogo on 02.02.12 at 3:06 am

Just found a little nugget in my budget folder that made me squeal like a lil’ pig on ecstasy:

The BMO receipt for my final car payment.

It shows I’ve been 100% debt-free and liquid since 10:18:52 am, Oct. 6, 2011. Sweet Mary & Joseph, I can tell it to the second. I’m so liquid I’m vaporizing.

It’s true, that Zen saying: “When the student is ready, the master will appear”. Soon after paying off the car loan I found this blessed blog.

I was seriously considering sinking the bulk of my savings into a money pit that would’ve made my car loan look like chump change. It seems like an eternity ago.

Now on to finish Money Road and get my savings the hell outta that Manitoba credit union!

#99 TryingToGetOutAlive on 02.02.12 at 3:09 am

hmm, let’s see…. take profits – check! get liquid – check!
thanked GT – check!

got introduced to greaterfool.ca and got liquid 1.5 years ago…. just a little history for yall…

3 years before that got engaged, borrowed money from parents and the bank to buy a condo and a bimmer. living the life, right? wrong, felt trapped and weighed down by all the debt we had taken on trying to be “grownups”.
as luck would have it, the place had gone up in value by 25%, so i convinced the wife “let’s take the money and get outta here, we’ll rent until the time is right”. bless her soul she said “i don’t fully understand the economics of it, and i hate moving and the idea of renting – but i trust you.”

so we cleaned up the place, listed and sold within 2 weeks.

when the dust settled and the cheques cleared, we squared things with the bank (mortgage), the family (downpayment loan), paid off LOC (car) – and still walked away with a chunk of cash.

basically we got shelter for free for 3 years and a free car because we leveraged ourselves to the hilt without knowing the risks, and got lucky.

next leap of faith was into the wild and wacky world of the stock market. and this past week marked the 1st anniversary of our opening self directed accounts.

and thanks to this recent rally, we just managed to break even after dividends and interest! but what a learning experience it has been, just knowing that our money is working for us now and at the same time is not trapped in one asset is priceless. i wonder what this new year will bring?

#100 Bailing in BC on 02.02.12 at 3:10 am

Done! First the investment property then the family home. Thanks Garth and Blog Dogs for holding my hand through it. Been completely out since the Summer of 2010. Landlord contacted us today to seen if we wanted to extend the lease another year for $100 less a month. Not sure yet. Place slightly better currently for rent for $250 less than what we are paying.

#101 syd on 02.02.12 at 3:21 am

Garth,

Is this your final answer ?

#102 Canuck Abroad on 02.02.12 at 3:27 am

202 truthhammer (yesterday) – Interesting comments on Thailand. I have been looking into where to spend a year or two and Thailand is on my short list. Don’t want to move there permanently but they have a retirement visa that looks interesting. In your opinion is Bangkok much better than Chiang Mai?

#103 BPOE on 02.02.12 at 3:58 am

Folks things are going better than ever. Like I’ve said before the HST is the only overhang on the market right now. Firstline making changes means absolutely nothing. The pros buying real estate in BPOE aren’t even allowed to get a mortgage. Cash sales only thankyou very much. For a million you can still get a starter townhouse so loadup and enjoy. Banks are sending cheques in the mail offering ridiculous low credit rates. LOVE IT. As a side note the Americans typos must be from all those lagers he’s enjoying on the Islands.

#104 Jay Currie on 02.02.12 at 4:26 am

Help…I am surrounded by For Sale signs. And the house I rent here in a leafy bit of Victoria was for sale for two years before I rented it.

I pay attention to the MLS and to the realtor’s ads in the posh maggies of Victoria. For every house with a sign in my leafy neighourhood there are two without signs or which have been withdrawn from the market.

My poor neighbours are out daily with the noisy leaf blower enhancing curb appeal for the buyers who do not come.

People are beginning to set their price on the basis of “replacement value” or the number of dollars they have “invested”.

It’s done here in the leafy bits. Your mileage will vary but the destination is the same.

Having a net worth of zero is several hundred thousand dollars ahead of my pals. And, of course, it is very liquid indeed. A job and having one of those nasty self employment things…amazing how attractive zero is when you have positive cash flow and only the rent and the cable to worry about.

#105 Freedom first on 02.02.12 at 4:49 am

I have been posting Garth’s message on other sites for a year before I even read Garth’s blog:)……Garth….never met you yet…..but you have been a great support to me, as I appreciated the sanity of your blog as the house horny were destroying their life, and frustrating the hell out of the sane:). As I also pleaded with 2 of the people in the world closest to me too get out while they could. They didn’t…….and I haven’t heard from them for 10 days. Usually get together at least once a week. I am liquid, debt free, and life is great:)………

Smoking man has given up tonight……..forget what #….sorry…….but he has been one of the main pushers of real estate here, and other sites. Nice to see him capitulate……even though nobody will like him anyways…..as nobody liked him before:)…..try AA buddy:)

#106 D on 02.02.12 at 4:56 am

20% Vancouver RE crash. That’s an average $220,000 loss or more then 3 years of take home pay! Ouch.

I have a solution, take your money out and buy into the USA market. Sorted.

#107 Student on 02.02.12 at 5:00 am

New houses in my neighbourhood are sitting unsold for months now and the builders are getting nervous. The amazing thing is that people are still in denial about what is about to happen and all they can point to is low rates and the markets are going to pick up in the spring. I now believe that interest rates will be low for a long time still but am still unsure about how stable the US dollar (and CDN$$$) will be going forward.

#108 landlessinvan on 02.02.12 at 5:04 am

The stats may be true in Van, but I just observed the most unbelievable sale. My friend bought a Kits bung in 2002 for $578,000. Listed it this week, one showing on Tuesday for 1.5 hours, closed the deal today for $1,975,000. One happy friend, about to experience real freedom.

#109 Last (wasn't going to comment...) on 02.02.12 at 5:31 am

@D. Dude you really need to invest in some financial education. The worse thing you can do is panic and pull your money out at a loss. better yet invest 30 bucks into a Canadian Money Saver subscription, trust me it will be the best investment you ever made

#110 Kip on 02.02.12 at 6:44 am

“In recent hours the crumble of Vancouver real estate has become apparent. Or is it a crash?”

Congratulations, it looks like your ship is finally coming in! Good for you!

#111 MB on 02.02.12 at 6:48 am

78th!!!!

Maybe Minister Flaherty will simply announce that CMHC is “fully suscribed” like he did with the Eco Home Retrofit Program?

#112 James Hoffman on 02.02.12 at 7:05 am

Garth:

Would it be possible to add a user ranking system for the comments on this blog similar to what many of the MSM sites like the G&M, CBC, National Post use – thumbs up, thumbs down – so that the best comments rise to the top and any comment with the word “FIRST!!!” in it sinks to the bottom where it belongs?

#113 Steven Rowlandson on 02.02.12 at 7:10 am

First order of business is to ban immigration and refugee intake to cut off the influx of people who need to be housed or can pay those obscene real estate prices.

Second , Lending standards have to be toughened up, down payments increased and interest rates jacked up to a minimum of 7% or better on mortgages.

Thirdly combining incomes to buy real estate must be made illegal and punishable by a massive fine equal to the value of the property that is being purchased.
Only a mans income should be counted for home buying and this concept of family income needs to be outlawed.

Fourthly the realty business in canada should be outlawed and shut down to stop their financial crimes against humanity through jacking up and supporting extreme real estate prices.

Fifthly we need to cap the total amount of money lent to buy a house to being no more in total to one years pay for the home buyer and that means one persons pay.

Sixth, all forms of mortgage insurance and especially government morgage insurance must be made illegal, shut down and banned forever. To have government backstopping or subsidizing financial sodomy through the hyperinflation of real estate prices is satanic and evil. It must end.

A house is supposed to be a home and a place to live and raise a family. It is not supposed to be a hyperinflated tax free winning lottery ticket or an investment.

#114 House on 02.02.12 at 7:38 am

No need to worry about Toronto CBC last night found a real estate agent with 3 or 4 HAMS so apparently the Toronto market is safe. Banks, Central Bankers and politicians may be the cause for this bubble, but the media are the ones with the pulpit to keep telling the people who just don’t have the knowledge to manage their debt that everything is alright until it is too late.

#115 Cow Man on 02.02.12 at 7:49 am

Amigos:

In the 80’s when the real estate correction happened, your “friendly banker”, was no longer friendly. You will find that when it rains the banker takes “his” umbrella away.

#116 Cow Man on 02.02.12 at 8:03 am

# 12 DUI on Money Road

http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/banking/personal-credit/rates.jsp

I don’t know why they increased your rate 80% . It says in the link that TD secured line of credit is 1% below prime which is now 3%. You should be paying 2% not 3.25%. Give them a call.

#117 Aussie Roy on 02.02.12 at 8:06 am

Aussie Update

Property crash just a myth

Thank goodness !!!

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property-crash-just-a-myth-20120201-1qtcz.html

Why the slow melt in house prices will go on

Now where have I heard “slow melt” before?.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/why-the-slow-melt-in-house-prices-will-go-on-20120202-1qudt.html

Hey Steve Keen, what’s the Aussie house price outlook for 2012.

Glad you asked.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/02/01/house-prices-outlook-for-2012/

How about the data? ABS versus RE Industry

Anyone following the slew of property market data that has been released of late could be forgiven for being more than just a little bit confused as to how capital city housing markets have truly performed in the last quarter and over the past year.

This week the ABS put out its capital house price for the December quarter to round off a quartet of research houses (the others being RP Data-Rismark, Residex and Australian Property Monitors) to provide benchmarks on how our key property markets are performing.

While clearly each uses its own statistical methodologies in determining house price changes and median values, surely no property investor (no matter how savvy) has the time to study complex mathematical formulas and make an assessment as to which figures are the most accurate.

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/divergent-housing-data-raises-more-questions-than-answers/2012020153216

How about this in a newapaper in Kuala Lumpur
Even get the Govt grant???
Things must be slow.

http://candobetter.net/files/kuala-lumpur-oz-housing-ad-med.JPG

Westpac is cutting hundreds of jobs as part of its cost-cutting program, with Sydney bearing the brunt of the redundancies.

The Finance Sector Union this afternoon said that 560 jobs were set to go at Westpac, in the latest round of job cuts to hit the financial services sector this year.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/westpac-to-axe-hundreds-of-jobs-20120202-1qulx.html#ixzz1lE1unnNe

#118 wicked as it seems on 02.02.12 at 8:08 am

Real estate liquidity = Winter on SE Asian beaches

I bow in grace at your feet Garth…..Thanks

#119 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 8:10 am

Does this mean that CMHC’s robo-signer Emili will be getting a much-needed vacation?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/01/26/we-love-to-say-approved/

(she must be tired after F has had her busy approving every loan with a pulse since 2006)

#120 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 8:22 am

Also – does CIBC still offer the 7% cash back mortgage?

Somebody PLEASE tell me that they weren’t combining the “stated income” (liar loan) mortgages with the $1M+ mortgages and the 7% cash back??? If that were the case, anyone could just walk in and say “hi, I make $500k per year… I’d like the $3M mortgage with 7% cash back please”.

Thank goodness we have such “prudent” banks like CIBC to keep our economic system so stable.

#121 Waterloo Resident on 02.02.12 at 8:22 am

$1,000 per month for a 2-bedroom apartment !!!!

http://www.gottarent.com/apartment/vacancy/spaceid/329/unitid/16089

Heck for that amount of money, why not just BUY THE DARNED PLACE ?

That’s why more and more people like me are buying homes, its because the cost of renting is going sky-high, so why not just jump and buy the house for $2,000 per month instead of renting?

As this blog has proven several times, renting is almost always cheaper than owning, even with low rates. Are you running out of virgins? — Garth

#122 Scooby Snacks on 02.02.12 at 8:28 am

no pressure, been liquid since 2007! Made more money in Gold Silver and currencies then any of the bubbly RE markets produced since then.

It’s been such a joke to watch it all play out!

Shaved many of my so-called dilusional friends into the minor aquaintence column over the last 5 years!

So quadruple happiness for me, liquid and free of enablers, obstacles and idiocy!

#123 Shane on 02.02.12 at 8:44 am

Garth, Who cares about the west what about the East GTA??

Shane

#124 Realtors and Bankers in a Panic on 02.02.12 at 8:49 am

Bankers knows Canada’s housing bubble is in a monster ponzi scheme and by far the biggest housing bubble in Canadian history. Banker buddy believes 80% of mortgages issued were from buyers with made up income . Now those mortgages are gone and realtors in the GTA have been crying the RE market was frozen in January as nothing was selling. Sellers are in a Panic as well as many are close to going bankrupt as they can not service their debt. Canada needs to correct a little over 50% just to get back to normal levels. its going to be a nasty crash.

#125 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 8:59 am

#106 Freedom first on 02.02.12 at 4:49 am
Smoking man has given up tonight……..forget what #….sorry…….but he has been one of the main pushers of real estate here, and other sites. Nice to see him capitulate……even though nobody will like him anyways…..as nobody liked him before:)…..try AA buddy:)

Pusher of Real Estate? I just call it like I see it. Please show me where I was wrong in the past.

Your are a missed the boater, sour grapes I think. If You bough a few years ago, be laughing now.

AA? I love my wine, why would I do something so rediculous.

Do you realy think I captitulated?

#126 Beagle on 02.02.12 at 9:05 am

Thanks Garth, we got out last spring just before the 35 year mortgages went away. Took our profits and got liquid. The thing that got the ball rolling was dragging my wife to one of your Victoria talks. You are a great speaker.

#127 Darryl on 02.02.12 at 9:07 am

capped at one million dollar loans???

who the hell takes out a loan of that size?

#128 Dom on 02.02.12 at 9:15 am

GTA is littered with for sale signs and nothing is selling. The best part is I know of 5 homes in my small area that are listed on MLS but have no signs up. Are RE agents worried people might wake up to the cold hard facts that Canada is in a housing bubble or as the spin doctors like to call it a ballon . Really a ballon since you can not explain the numbers away. Buyers would be smart and sit back and watch price crash. The only people who say to buy are those who profit from sales.

#129 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 9:19 am

#114 Steven Rowlandson

Only a mans income should be counted for home buying and this concept of family income needs to be outlawed.

– — –

While we’re at it, why don’t we just roll the clock back to 1950. lol

#130 househornyhousewife on 02.02.12 at 9:35 am

Garth,

What is that a picture of ? A dollhouse ? That thing must have all of 2 rooms in it. If this is the type of thing that is selling for boatloads of cash in B.C. then I totally agree that this market is ready to implode. Anyone that would pay ANYTHING for a place like that rather than renting should have their head examined.

However, I still think that not all of Canada and not all of Canadians are in dire straits. Some markets did not inflate irrationally like B.C. did and so, if a correction is in order, they will not descend more than a few percentage points at most. An average SFH around here will set you back around $250,000.00 on average .. and that’s for a decent one. You can buy a smaller but nevertheless very nice bungalow for as little as $150,000.00. Given that, how much lower can you go really ? Of course the newer granite and stainless mausoleums in the newer areas will run around $800,000.00 but there are many choices within the same city so one does not have to sacrifice their and their descendants’ future income in order to own a home.

Also, if you are a Canadian who has taken the time and the trouble to put together a solid savings and retirement plan and you are sticking to it, I honestly don’t see what the problem is with buying a nice house and paying it off while you live in it .. as long as the price is reasonable and you can afford it (ie. 20% downpayment minimum and comfortable mortgage payments).

Your message, unless I misunderstand, is not meant to say that buying real estate is a bad idea but rather that you should not have all of your wealth tied up in said real estate. You are also saying that certain markets, such as Vancouver, Victoria (well heck, OK, all of BC), Calgary, Toronto and other large cities have had inflationary pressures that have pushed up prices to very unrealistic levels and that there will be a correction in these markets very soon.

This all makes sense but many people are taking your message to mean buying a house is wrong and renting a place is right. I think it really depends upon your financial situation, your specific market, what stage of life you are in, future earnings etc..

I honestly do not think that one formula can be applied to every single individual. If your savings and retirement are taken care of and you dream of owning and living in your own home (that you can afford), and, if your market is reasonable (like many markets in Canada still are .. discounting the larger cities, of course), then waiting until you are 75 years of age in order to buy a house at the bottom of the market simply makes no sense. Some markets will not fluctuate as wildly as others will and you have to use your head rather than blindly following other people’s advice.

HHHW

#131 Beach Girl on 02.02.12 at 9:51 am

#164 DonDWest on 02.01.12 at 3:59 pm

#122 Beach Girl

You’re a jerk.

____

Will try again.

DELETED (again)

#132 fancy_pants on 02.02.12 at 9:54 am

I think we’ll have to adjust the HAM acronym from Hot Asian Money back to its origins – slaughtered pigs.

Knives are being sharpened as we speak. I’ll go fire up the barbie.

#133 NOBODY on 02.02.12 at 10:03 am

Wow!!!
This must be renter central!!!
All you jealous renters can have all the wet dreams of a RE crash you want.
Very telling when in a country that mortgages are offered to losers, you guys don’t even qualify. Ouch!

#134 Canadian Watchdog on 02.02.12 at 10:04 am

#113 James Hoffman

I agree. Optional list by votes and newest to old or vice versa.

#135 Incubus on 02.02.12 at 10:04 am

Vancouver the first domino to fall. How long before they reach Montreal?

#136 TurnerNation on 02.02.12 at 10:05 am

Boomers will go down in history as the experiment generation. The “Middle Class” was a post WW2 marketing creation. It’s over.

The idea you could “work” in a paperpushing non-producting job such as in marketing, “corporate communications”, or HR, or receivables factoring, or sub prime lender, or salesman of shiny baubles, collecting your gold watch and pension, while riding off into the sunset is absurd.

Who pays for this? The losses were nicely pushed into 2nd and 3rd World countries (note: there will be no more charity or famine relief drives in Africa. No more “We are the world” kumbya sing-alongs; they are playing for keeps now. Genocide. International mining companies and private armies are in. People are out).

But the tide of losses at home can no longer be pushed aside. It’s time to get serious for them, they will socialize accumulated losses and risk (see:CMHC) and privatize profits (see: credit default swaps, selling off Hydro, city services).

Middle class – what an absurd notion! It’s Kings and Serfs. Slaves and Plantation owners. Always has was, always is. The world is ruled by violence not be democracy. A hard lesson for may to learn. Witness Canada’s role in the destruction of Libya and Afghan. Just following orders. You don’t like it? Feel free to stand in front of the troops instead of behind them, as state the bumper stickers. The world is ruled by violence. Nice.

The owners of means of production, and the worker bees.

#137 Canadian Watchdog on 02.02.12 at 10:06 am

#88 Waterloo Resident

They’re paying their student loans. http://www2.canada.com/albernivalleytimes/story.html?id=def2f886-3c54-44aa-a8db-e91c315e4cac

#138 This is wonderland on 02.02.12 at 10:17 am

#113 James Hoffman

Thumps Up James, I second that.

#139 Mr Buyer on 02.02.12 at 10:29 am

The Bubble has Topped
Buy now before everyone can afford to
…and they landed softly ever after…

#140 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 10:31 am

#20 Fifty Percent Correction Predictor on 02.01.12 at 11:19 pm
Yeeeeeeeeeee….. Haaaaaaaa………….!

#84 Paolo on 02.02.12 at 1:43 am
Has the train wreck finally begun?

#111 Kip on 02.02.12 at 6:44 am
“In recent hours the crumble of Vancouver real estate has become apparent. Or is it a crash?”

Congratulations, it looks like your ship is finally coming in! Good for you!

You three, and those others like you, come from a sick perspective. Is that the only way you can get your kicks – to watch with glee someone else suffer that even the mere suggestion of it sends you into state of convulsive ecstasy? Sick little puppies not yet mature enough to even be called Blog Dawgs. Enjoy your Fear Monger porn boys. But keep it in your pants would you, for your piddling around here is more annoying than the shot’s at “FIRST” which miss their target as often as the predictions around here.

#61 JohnG on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am
Funny things, these economics. They can defy fundamentals and logic for a long time. Then, almost overnight, you wake up and things are different.

J

There is NOTHING irrational about economics as it logically explains that part of human behaviour that is too often misunderstood by those players who’s motives it reveals.

“The gap in our economy is between what we have and what we think we ought to have – and that is a moral problem, not an economic one.” – Paul Heyne

Economics is the backstory of all history and demographics is the backstory of all economics.

#141 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 10:43 am

#139Devil’s Advocate on 02.02.12 at 10:31 am

#61 JohnG on 02.02.12 at 12:50 am
Funny things, these economics. They can defy fundamentals and logic for a long time. Then, almost overnight, you wake up and things are different.

J

There is NOTHING irrational about economics as it logically explains that part of human behaviour that is too often misunderstood by those players who’s motives it reveals.

“The gap in our economy is between what we have and what we think we ought to have – and that is a moral problem, not an economic one.” – Paul Heyne

In other words JohnG soon many will wake up to a new dawn only to realize it was they who were wrong – not economics but their moral dilemma which clouded their interpretation of the same.

#142 Canadian Watchdog on 02.02.12 at 10:45 am

#141 Devil’s Advocate

You’re showing signs of denial against the herd. Stay calm.

Herd Behavior http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behavior
Hundredth Monkey Effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect

This is called behavioral economics, the most genuine of them all.

#143 This is Wonderland on 02.02.12 at 10:48 am

#128 Darryl
capped at one million dollar loans???
who the hell takes out a loan of that size?

————————————————————-

I’ll tell you who, my cousins neighbours who live in Joshua Creek here in Oakville. The whole family Mother, Father, brothers and there wife’s and kids live in one house, have been in Canada for maybe 10 years. Parents don’t work even though they are only in there fifties, they stay home and watch the grand kids while the parents work lots of different jobs to pay off the million dollar mortgage. Seems to be working out well for them, however not for my cousin since they insist on using their front yard as a living room in the summer and the back yard to hold their garbage bins; due to the fact they are running out of room in their garage. I’m not saying living generationally is a bad thing my family did it when they came to Canada back in the 50’s, the only difference is they had to prove without a doubt they had enough money to purchase the home and no one got to stay home. Oh and their neighbours never had to smell their trash piling up.

#144 neo on 02.02.12 at 10:51 am

The funny thing about balloons at a party is that once the party is over, it is a lot easier dispense of them by sticking a pin in it and popping it, rather than trying to tediously untie the knot and letting it deflate.

The CHMC is the knot.

#145 disciple on 02.02.12 at 10:51 am

#137 TurnerNation… interesting post. You made me think about this… Listen, I believe that the boomer generation was indeed an experiment, but it started out with all good intentions. Just think of the potential, the promise, the anti-gravitational vehicles, the space age gadgets, the elimination of disease and poverty, the outbreak of the German chemists, the glory of oil processing, journey into space! A world of limitless and free energy was within our grasp… but then something happened… the dark side used those same technological breakthroughs to maintain their grip via the secret societies.

It was all subverted! The generation previous to the boomers, the GREATEST GENERATION, suffered immensely through so much bloodshed, political upheaval, cultural revolution, and psychological trauma, that they virtually sacrificed their own lives, to fight and WIN against the enemies of humanity (you know who they are by now, don’t you?)… but they failed to pass on what they knew to the boomers, either through lack of time or some type of communication breakdown. Perhaps a lack of education produced a boomer generation wholly incapable of understanding…?

What this greatest generation had acquired, all of this knowledge they stole like Promethean Fire from those who held it under lock and key for millennia, but somehow it failed to transmigrate to the consciousness of the next generation.

The boomers were like the baby Superman sent to lowly Earth to escape the tyrannies and consequences of the past world, but the seeds of destruction hitched a ride on the underbelly of the craft. Thereby, evil gained a foothold in the brave new world, and slowly but surely, used greed, fear and mind control to subvert the boomers from fulfilling the promise provided to them by their parents…

And surely, this is why a new batch of disciples were born. To reclaim that victory, the battle has already been won by the Greatest Generation. We need not repeat the same mistakes of using violence to create order… Our secret rulers are deftly afraid of what is coming. It is inevitable, unstoppable now. Humanity will be free. But the boomers need to make the same sacrifice their parents made, in order to save us another generation of wasted time…

This sacrifice is a customized and personal one. It could be monetary, it could be related to pride, it could be simply saying they are wrong to someone who needs to hear it. Perhaps it translates into a sacrifice of time spent on themselves, perhaps to right those wrongs they have neglected for decades, perhaps to finally understand what their parents were trying to tell them, that the rise of the Middle Class need not be built on the backs of the world’s poor. Let’s finish what Gandhi started…

As a Gen-X-er, I had less contemporary colleagues than the boomers, so have spent the majority of my time with boomers in most spheres of my life. I understand their strengths and weaknesses. I have seen both extremes of philosophical underpinning in action; that is, the contrast between the “Will to Meaning” versus the “Will to Pleasure”. What is the good life? The optimum concentration is a balanced mixture of both drives.

They can still bust a Darth Vader, and throw the Emperor into the tube. I’ll be waiting.

#146 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 10:51 am

#122 Waterloo Resident on 02.02.12 at 8:22 am
$1,000 per month for a 2-bedroom apartment !!!!

http://www.gottarent.com/apartment/vacancy/spaceid/329/unitid/16089

Heck for that amount of money, why not just BUY THE DARNED PLACE ?

That’s why more and more people like me are buying homes, its because the cost of renting is going sky-high, so why not just jump and buy the house for $2,000 per month instead of renting?

As this blog has proven several times, renting is almost always cheaper than owning, even with low rates. Are you running out of virgins?” — Garth

Rent forever or own and pay off in due time. The choice is theirs as it was once yours when you too chose the latter.

#147 Miko on 02.02.12 at 10:53 am

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1125067–mortgage-pullback-hints-of-housing-crisis-in-canada

#148 Neil on 02.02.12 at 10:58 am

Being reading this blog for about a year now and enjoy it as a reality check to the free advertising the media gives realtors in the press. I own in Mississauga free and clear a home I will retire in, it is not my RRSP. But have started looking at listings on MLS for my kids who I advise to wait. I couldn’t help but notice all the green leafy trees in the “new listings” are this just houses not sold last summer or price drops?

#149 truth hammer on 02.02.12 at 10:58 am

Now lets say the glass is half full. 30% of the Canada’s GDP is real estate development and transaction revenue….no politician is going to pot this bird. The CMHC has gone to well before and topped up with hundreds of millions…last time 600 million…this will happen again because of the aforementioned 30% of GDP riding on real estate. Any government intervention will sink the bond ratings the country uses to loan money to itself. You bet not a single politician wants to tell the union supporters that the cost of borrowing for their next raise and pension adjustment precludes the mandatory raise.

Prediction

F dicks around and does nothing substantial

Carney jawbones some more and makes no substantive changes

Real estate goes sideways with an upwards bias.

People get screwed .

Welcome to Canada.

Wash..rinse..repeat while politicians wait until they are topped up with fat pensions then they fall out of the trough to double dip in contract work.

And no one in Canada seems to be able to count to 100. Oh yeah …remind what the direct and indirect tax bite is at now? Good luck with your future. If you haven’t figured out why every one is so miserable in Canada…….start a discussion about money and taxes.

#150 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 11:11 am

Now Garth I know before you even retort that a sound investment plan combined with the shorter term savings from renting will yield a most rewarding return. And you should keep on preaching that lesson to and for they who are willing to learn. For it is sound advice for they who take it but for they who do not there some sound basis in owning and paying off in due time.

#151 disciple on 02.02.12 at 11:13 am

I’m tired. I see the same old propaganda, day in, and day out. I don’t watch TV anymore. I catch the radio while I’m driving, but it’s still all crap. Are we all so mind-numbingly stupid to be entertained by muscular males/females pretending to wrestle? And I’m talking about ice hockey…

I can understand my kids being entertained by Dancing Stars and Singing Idols and Buddy making cakes, but not 30-50 year-olds, who should be more concerned with the health of their household and national economies… Did I hear one news story about how anything is improving? No, not one. It’s all bad news, all the time. You would think they were trying to use fear to make you run into the arms of “comfort entertainment”. Nah, that would be the definition of mind control… surely that doesn’t happen does it? I mean, the gov’t would never allow that, eh?

Shall we go yet another round of “voting” among a pre-selected batch of the same political bastards who continually steal from us to pay their bankster masters?

What will you do differently, prior to the next election? You underestimate the power you have. There is strength in our numbers. Vote for every single damned independent you have available in your ridings… throw the system a curveball… see what happens… it can’t get any worse, can it?

#152 South of 49 on 02.02.12 at 11:22 am

Is this a good time to bail out of my bank stocks (but not my preferreds)?

#153 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 11:22 am

DA # 183 yesterday

you are dead wrong. You have not been paying attention to any of my comments. I am building custom homes on deeded land, and I do not have any homes for sale below $ 550,000. You tried, but reading comprehension is required for good detective work….

#154 Snowboid on 02.02.12 at 11:23 am

“I have time for everyone. — Garth”

Thank you, will be in touch in mid-April!

#155 Alex on 02.02.12 at 11:28 am

Just received a letter from TD Bank.
My unsecured line of credit variable interest rate goes up 3% from 5.50% to 8.50% effective immediately.

Just FYI

#156 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 11:31 am

My son today:

Dad I hate the boomers they screwed it for my generation, Oh by the was do you have a spare 20, pay you tommorow
Kids

Good post Turner Nation

#157 disciple on 02.02.12 at 11:32 am

The son of a convicted notorious mobster, John Gotti Jr, when asked in court if the family still dealt drugs cracked, “No, we can’t compete with the government.” Why Forbes is known for its Fortune lists:

http://www.naturalnews.com/034832_drug_war_money_Big_Brother.html

Power line proximity is positively correlated with cancer rates. There is more than one cure for cancer because cancer is not one disease, it is a complicated group of diseases with similar symptoms and mode of action. Treating Cancer with Electrical Fields:

http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_doyle_treating_cancer_with_electric_fields.html

#158 Willa on 02.02.12 at 11:40 am

Some of my bank preferreds got called last week, and my broker pounced on a good-return bond that came in yesterday. It’s for a mortgage insurance company, offering 5.01% on 8 years.

I kind of cringed when he said mortgage insurance.

With a housing bubble set to burst, wouldn’t a mortgage insurance company would be in trouble? If they’re backing low-equity mortgages from folks with low or no income, aren’t they’re going to take a hit on bankruptcies?

Or have I got this wrong?

Where does the risk in these matters flow? For that matter, do bank shares and preferreds have more downside risk because of overexposure to house newbies underwater?

I can call my broker back today and tell him to pass the bonds onto someone else if I should get out of them. To me, there’s always a reason why a company would offer a higher-than-normal return on its bond.

#159 kim on 02.02.12 at 11:44 am

miko #148

yes miko that article explains why the RE industry is very worried this house of cards is going to come crashing down. You can see from the worried realtors who post on garths blog everyday. Everyone knows banks have been giving out mortgages since 2006 to anyone without money . My sister in 2006 who still has no money has been living off heloc and loc. she complains that her bank account is empty and the bank takes everything she has monthly. If it wasnt for credit she would of lost her home a long time ago. The past two months she has talked about selling. I think alot of people close to the edge will try and sell but now the game/mortgage scam is over.

#160 Snowboid on 02.02.12 at 11:55 am

#134 NOBODY on 02.02.12 at 10:03 am…

Sadly there aren’t many ‘jealous’ renters here – only smart ones. I also don’t think insults will magically turn us into greater fools!

#161 Ian - Ottawa on 02.02.12 at 11:55 am

The Onion Newspaper is a more credible source than these pumpers at Re/Max. Last night on CBC’s O’Leary & Lang exchange they had one agent in Toronto saying there was low inventory and prices will go higher !

Number of Condos Under Development
Chicago = 17
New York City = 86
Toronto = 132
Source: Canadian Business Feb 20,2012 Special Report On Oversupply

#162 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 12:00 pm

#183 DA yesterday continued……

not to mention your atrocious arithmetic. I said the home sold 3 years later for almost 25% less than the price we sold for. The home you quoted sold for approximately 3% less. I hope your number-crunching is better when you do deals for clients……

you might add a basic math course to your basic english ( some improvement of your writing skills along with reading comprehension will help you immeasurably with your work )

#163 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.02.12 at 12:14 pm

@ #134 NOBODY, I’m not jealous of your debt at all. In fact, your post made this renter feel just a little more smug today. Thanks.

#164 Ogopogo on 02.02.12 at 12:18 pm

DA, why do I detect a note of panic/anger in your tone? And I doubt I’m the only one.

#165 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 12:20 pm

It seems like just yesterday my own financial planner was admiring the rewards he thought I must have been reaping in the bubbly days of real estate to which then I replied; get ready the tide is about to turn and it will be to your industries benefit at the cost of mine.

Make hay while the sun shines Garth but do it with compassion and care for that tide will surely turn again and this blog will no longer be so timely. Three and four years is a long, long time in any economic cycle including this which I agree will take longer to recover from but recover from it will. And when that day comes Garth the Greater Fools who reveal themselves every bit as prevalent in your markets as they did so in mine will once again run back to “bricks and mortar” from those financial opportunities they think you provide.

But both you and I know that “heady times” are for fools who speculate. Our sought after clients are those who have a long term plan.

Your business and mine are not that different my friend. Nor is your business practice so different from mine. Each of our industries has its ups and downs. The only real difference is that industry tends to be up when mine is down and mine up when yours is again back down. There are Greater Fools in both your industry and mine just as there are less altruistic service providers in each. You know well you do today what I did back then and while our own industries will not change nor will the task we face of doing the very best we can for each our principals the economic tide will surely change garnering the attention of those lemmings from one industry to the other and back and forth again.

#166 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 12:23 pm

#154Form Man on 02.02.12 at 11:22 am
DA # 183 yesterday

you are dead wrong. You have not been paying attention to any of my comments. I am building custom homes on deeded land, and I do not have any homes for sale below $ 550,000. You tried, but reading comprehension is required for good detective work….

Patience is a virtue and the process of elimination tried and true.

#167 Jane24 on 02.02.12 at 12:24 pm

Right guys it is:

– 4 pm here in England
– so 11 am in TO
– and what about 9 am out West and there are 162 comments here already.

Garth you are on fire. I never doubted you for a sec.

Our retirement is lined up to be the bungalow in Southern England, the palazzo in Southern Italy (both already purchased) and the missing part of the puzzle is the condo in Old Montreal. Blog dogs do let me know when the time is tight to get the condo.

Cheers

Garth you are on fire.

#168 45north on 02.02.12 at 12:34 pm

Greg: Events can unfold much faster then you think.

http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/treb-taking-page-nar

I think that this thing is moving faster than government can respond. In the US, the government was continually chasing the market down. Interest rates are already at 0.25 – what is Mark Carney going to do – lower it to 0.1255 ? He won’t. By the time Flaherty is ready to present his budget, the housing market in the GTA will be on its knees.

#169 Mike on 02.02.12 at 12:40 pm

Just moved into a rental with my girlfriend. The tenant assigned us the lease. We’re seriously paying $1000/mo. The previous tenant’s condo in St Jamestown just got finished. He’s going to flip it in 60 days, expecting a profit of $80k.

I really like this little apartment. It doesn’t have a view, but it’s roomy, cheap, quiet, clean and very, very central.

#170 Junius on 02.02.12 at 12:41 pm

#150 Truth Hammer,

You said, “Now lets say the glass is half full. 30% of the Canada’s GDP is real estate development and transaction revenue….no politician is going to pot this bird.” Along with a whole bunch of unsupported speculation.

Read Garth’s Blog. We have come to the end game. There are now too many forces working against government intervention in the Re: Business. Credit contractions and deleveraging forces are too powerful now for the government to keep pushing on this string.

The tide has turned. Learn to swim with the tide.

#171 Junius on 02.02.12 at 12:42 pm

#150 Truth Hammer,

BTW – it is interesting that most of the pumpers use marketing names as their monikers here. “Truth Hammer”, “The Real Truth” and, of course, “BPOE.”

Facts don’t need gimmicks. But snake oil sales people do.

#172 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 12:48 pm

Form Man:

Just heading out to appointments but your comment;

“not to mention your atrocious arithmetic. I said the home sold 3 years later for almost 25% less than the price we sold for. The home you quoted sold for approximately 3% less”

compells address.

The numbers I quoted are sell price to list which may well indeed be just 3.0%. What you were referring to was that the unfortunate seller bought that home from you for a price much higher that they were forced to sell for 25% less than they paid you the developer. That is your track record my friend not mine which if were I would not be proud of.

And they say it was my industry which was taking advantage of the Greater Fools.

In summary it is clearly your reading comprehension which needs improvement not mine although I will grant you your arithmetic skill intact albeit ill construed.

Did you get that one 6’5” tall JohnG?

#165Ogopogo on 02.02.12 at 12:18 pm
DA, why do I detect a note of panic/anger in your tone? And I doubt I’m the only one.

While the “players” in the real estate industry most certainly face challenge I am just fine with it and really quite content. Thank you for your concern though.

#173 kilby on 02.02.12 at 1:04 pm

#18. Where are you? Qualicum? Parksville?

#174 NoProblem on 02.02.12 at 1:04 pm

Just take a 10 year fixed rate mortgage with a dirt low interest rate and the payments are easy.

#175 harden on 02.02.12 at 1:06 pm

just posted at The Economist

“Look out below” Canada

http://www.economist.com/node/21546057

#176 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 1:10 pm

#173 DA

Beside the fact that you are beginning to creep me out, I was pointing out the disconnect between the B.S. you and OMREB are spouting, and reality. Facts and reliable data are an investor’s best tools…………..
If your ethics are sound, there is no need for ‘panic and anger’……………

#177 kilby on 02.02.12 at 1:10 pm

#33. Victoria.

Talked to a realtor in Victoria, he is still “hopeful” on SFH but is certain that the condo market is toast. Knows houses are not going well but better than condos.

#178 Ham on 02.02.12 at 1:13 pm

For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.

And anyone who took your advice 3 years ago missed out on a huge tax-free gain. Now is a good time to sell but anyone who sold before now lost out on a lot of money.

Houses are not stocks. Greed like yours makes real estate unaffordable for most families. Shame on you. — Garth

#179 Van guy on 02.02.12 at 1:17 pm

#104 BPOE on 02.02.12 at 3:58 am
———————————————-

Can you explain why sales are down and listings are up? New condos are not selling and developers are still building. Richmond is completely flooded and you are still pumping the market. You are a realtor, developer, or bankster. The stats pack should be out today. I’ll give you a sneak peak. Sales to be worse than Dec 11!!! Listings highest for Jan in last 10 years!!!

#180 pjwlk on 02.02.12 at 1:31 pm

“I ride a Harley. Bugs taste good. — Garth”

Hope your pipes are in order Garth… Oakville muffling motorcycles

“Individuals convicted for violating the Town’s noise bylaw, which the motorcycle bylaw is a part of, could face a minimum fine of $400 and a maximum fine of $25,000 for the first offense. The maximum fine for any subsequent offence is $50,000.”

What happens when you elect idiots to Council. What’s the fine for minivans with loud mufflers? — Garth

#181 AprilNewwest on 02.02.12 at 1:36 pm

#129 Dom I’ve noticed the same thing here in New West, BC. Places for sale on MLS but no sign outside building.
More RE deceptive tricks………..

#182 kothar on 02.02.12 at 1:39 pm

That little hovel in the pic is probably in the Vancouver area and goes for $1mill plus.

It looks exactly like the WWII pre-fab houses in my home town of Pictou NS, that go for $30,000 today.

I wonder what they would say in Van if I only offered them $30,000 on that house because that is all I thought it was worth?

#183 cb on 02.02.12 at 1:44 pm

BPOE=delusional!

A million for a townhouse on the wet coast is not a good thing for young people in our province. Stop being so selfish. Do you have kids, nephews? I assume you are a home owner to be pumping sand the way you do.

#184 Bailing in BC on 02.02.12 at 1:46 pm

#134 NOBODY

You’re not Nobody, you are one of the following-

A realtor (afraid we will talk the market down)

A recent home buyer (afraid we will talk the market down)

Someone awaiting the delivery of a presale (afraid we will talk the market down)

An over extended specuvestor (afraid we will talk the market down)

A building contractor (afraid we will talk the market down)

A boomer who needs to sell to retire (afraid we will talk the market down)

Did I miss one? Basically your post reeks of FEAR.

Mortgage! What the hell would I need a mortgage for?

Got cash?

#185 young & foolish on 02.02.12 at 1:47 pm

Seems like we have a whole bunch of new renters on board. Thanks for sharing your “we sold last year at the peek and are now liquid” stories.

#186 Bailing in BC on 02.02.12 at 1:50 pm

#179 Ham

Not true. Pull your head out of your own arse. The market I am in peaked in 2008. Same can be said for other markets in Canada, and now it is coming for you.

#187 cb on 02.02.12 at 2:08 pm

Jane 24: You must be mistaken! Why Montreal when you can purchase an equal property-type on the Wet Coast for only 3-4 x the money!!!! No need to brush up on your French, try some Asian dialect instead! Now there is culture for ya! Oh yeah, in case you go out just duck under a table if you hear gun fire- the gangsters only fire at each other!!! As for entertainment, there is also a hockey team with a fanatical fan base you can be a part of. And, hey, 2 hours up the road is Whistler. No sense in making a day trip there as the commute will kill ya but just charge your chalet onto your HELOC like everyone does around here. No need to worry about that debt either, because there are so many Asians, er speculators, wanting to snap that property up (well above market value???) that you can pay that debt off when you sell and then you will be really rich instead of wealthy. Vancouver….the best place on earth…lol

#188 Van guy on 02.02.12 at 2:11 pm

Houses are not stocks. Greed like yours makes real estate unaffordable for most families. Shame on you. — Garth
—————————————————-

Most normal working families aren’t successful as you Garth. So if there’s an opportunity to make big coin, why not? I’m sure the guy next door to me doesn’t care if I can afford a house or not. I have young children and that’s my priority.

Oh, so you don’t care about others guys with kids? — Garth

#189 Canuck Abroad on 02.02.12 at 2:12 pm

122 / Waterloo Resident – $1,000 per month for a 2-bedroom apartment !!!!
http://www.gottarent.com/apartment/vacancy/spaceid/329/unitid/16089
Heck for that amount of money, why not just BUY THE DARNED PLACE ? That’s why more and more people like me are buying homes, its because the cost of renting is going sky-high
*****
What a peculiar post. What exactly are you playing at with this choice of advertisement?

First of all, the building is owned by Transglobe, which was recently featured on Marketplace as being a TERRIBLE ripoff management company with leaking, mould-ridden flats. So, none of the apartments in the building would be for sale anyway even if someone were crazy enough to want to buy one.

Second, 1000 a month for two bedrooms is not a lot of money. And I happen to personally know of a building in Kitchener where the rents on 2 bedrooms are around 1000 a month and the building is so lovely and the management so good that the friend who lives there was able to coax another friend (former owner) to move there as well. There are bad buildings and good buildings in every city, and you chose a Transglobe building to make your (silly) point. Why?

Third, you claim rents are going sky high. Proof? With a flood of newly built condos coming available, I would argue that rents will stay flat or maybe even fall.

Your argument reeks of the usual “Why throw money away on rent!!!” nonsense. Shelter costs money. End of story. You can pay rent, or you can pay mortgage interest (or opportunity costs if you paid cash) and all the other costs of ownership. Rather than have a hissy fit about the expense of rent, the prospective dweller should be making a cool calculation comparing the cost of renting a place versus buying it.

And if you are thinking of renting in an apartment building, there’s no reason you can’t talk to other residents to find out if the management is good and the building is well looked after before you plunk down cash.

#190 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 2:16 pm

What happens when you elect idiots to Council. What’s the fine for minivans with loud mufflers? — Garth

Get a muffler. That goes for those bad-ass minivans too.

#191 kilby on 02.02.12 at 2:26 pm

South Okanagan, all residential for the last 14 days.

106 Off Market.
40 New Sales.
35 Price Changes.
136 New Listings.
2,260 Active Listings
Not a lot of action, hot properties seem to be under $400K

#192 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 2:29 pm

#188 cb – gangsters

Gangs are problem in all major cities in Canada, even Victoria…

http://tinyurl.com/2c8w3n

#193 Re BC HOUSING MARKET: | on 02.02.12 at 2:32 pm

[…] Spring fling […]

#194 poco on 02.02.12 at 2:35 pm

#185Bailing in BC on 02.02.12 at 1:46 pm

re: #134 NOBODY
you did miss one —he can’t do math

i think i saw Mr NOBODY or maybe it was Mr HAM early this a.m.–what do you think?

http://stuffarabslike2009.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/76-head_up_ass.jpg

#195 Kip on 02.02.12 at 2:35 pm

#141 Devil’s Advocate
“You three, and those others like you, come from a sick perspective.”

My earlier comment was dripping with sarcasm! I find it hard to believe you could interpret it any other way. If I had a dollar for every time someone here predicted the fall of real estate, I would be a rich man. I mean really, how can anyone take this blog seriously? It’s been predicting real estate collapse for the 2 years I’ve been reading it.

You should stop smoking naval lint!

#196 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 2:41 pm

#196 Kip

Home prices have been falling in the Okanagan for 3 years now. Vancouver and Toronto are now beginning the same descent. Looks to me like this blog has been correct with it’s forecast………

#197 Miko on 02.02.12 at 2:41 pm

I sold a 600 square foot i bedroom in Kitsilano May 2011 for $395,000 (bought in 2003 for $170,000)

didn’t sell because of this blog, I sold because $400,000 for a 1 bedroom in a 40 year old building with shared laundry screamed CRAZY to me.

the place was payed off so I invested all the money in big dividend companies yielding me 5% (pays my rent and I have a few hundred bucks in my pocket every month), and I already have a cap appreciation of 10% on top of the yield.

The crazy peeps are the ones that own in Richmond and didn’t sell at this time last year, talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth…

#198 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 2:42 pm

#177Form Man on 02.02.12 at 1:10 pm
#173 DA

Beside the fact that you are beginning to creep me out, I was pointing out the disconnect between the B.S. you and OMREB are spouting, and reality. Facts and reliable data are an investor’s best tools…………..
If your ethics are sound, there is no need for ‘panic and anger’……………

That is the problem with the written word, and my lack of craft with it to be true, for it lacks inflection by which you can judge my mood and meaning. I am not in a state of “panic” nor am I “angry”, but really quite content. As a matter of fact I find your accusations quite humorous and entertaining.

As far as “creeping you out” might you have construed those last lines of my post as having been directed at you when in fact they were meant for two others? (6’5” tall John G and Ogopogo). Unless of course it is having been proven wrong yourself that has you “creeped out”. If so take condolence Form Man in knowing, as I am really quite sure, there will be many whose predictions will be equally proved wrong in coming days, weeks, months and/or years.

#199 kilby on 02.02.12 at 2:47 pm

# 191. Timing is everything.

I have had my motorcycle license for 45 years and have owned over 20 motorcycles. I don’t dislike Harleys but here in Vancouver the “open pipe” crowd has been roaring back and forth on sunny days. At times you can’t enjoy being outside they are so loud. I do wish they would go for long rides instead of just going back and forth in second gear making as much noise as possible. A lot of these guys are “new” riders, 45 year olds on their first bikes (because they can afford them) There should be a happy medium noise wise between the BMW crowd and the “no baffles” bunch. They do get attention however……

What else matters? — Garth

#200 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 2:53 pm

#196Kip on 02.02.12 at 2:35 pm
#141 Devil’s Advocate
“You three, and those others like you, come from a sick perspective.”

My earlier comment was dripping with sarcasm! I find it hard to believe you could interpret it any other way. If I had a dollar for every time someone here predicted the fall of real estate, I would be a rich man. I mean really, how can anyone take this blog seriously? It’s been predicting real estate collapse for the 2 years I’ve been reading it.

If that is so and judging from your response I believe it surely must be I offer you my sincere apology.

As I recently expressed to my opponent apparent Form Man; “the problem with the written word, and my lack of craft with it to be true, is that it lacks inflection by which you can judge mood and a lot of hidden meaning”.

Again my apologies. It appears we are, more than not, on the same page.

#201 prairie gal on 02.02.12 at 3:03 pm

Garth, do you know of any lobbying to change the Income Tax Act that would remove capital gains taxes on rental housing and reduce the income tax rate on rental income as a purported way to encourage landlords to “invest” in more properties? I just heard this through my work in gov’t and was appalled at the lack of any grasp on basic economic principles. Supposedly these ideas are touted by Social Service Ministries as a way to encourage more rental housing. This is what happens when you have social workers developing fiscal policy. Good thing it will never go anywhere.

CREA’s been pushing this. It is insane and will never happen. — Garth

#202 Rene on 02.02.12 at 3:04 pm

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”

Done. Out since August 2011. HHHW is anxious to get back in. I’d like to find a nice modest house to rent for 4-5 years.

#203 bigrider on 02.02.12 at 3:05 pm

#181 pjwlk – motorcycle pipe bylaws.

Mine are 3″ Hard Chrome straights and are as loud as hell.

Can’t say for sure if they have ever saved me from a scrap or worse but let me tell you, in traffic everyone knows that little me is around.

A bit of noise is a small price to pay to save even one life.

Before we get the typical responses, remember cars and trucks don’t own the road, motorcycles have just as much right to it.

#204 Victor on 02.02.12 at 3:08 pm

Looser mortgage practices ‘matter of concern’: Flaherty

Last updated Thursday, Feb. 02, 2012 1:18PM EST

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says he shares concerns raised by Canada’s banking regulator about some institutions loosening standards for mortgages and other loans that do not require applicants to prove their incomes.

On a conference call from Tel Aviv Wednesday, the minister was asked about documents from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions that were made public earlier this week, which indicated the regulator is concerned about whether banks are relaxing their lending standards on home equity lines of credit and mortgages in order to attract more business.

Mr. Flaherty confirmed that the issue — made public in 150 pages of documents that Bloomberg News obtained through an access-to-information request — is a “matter of concern,” but suggested it is not widespread and, in any case, is being addressed.

“OSFI’s concern arises out of some work that OSFI has done as part of the of the ordinary course of its business to look at some of the loans being made by financial institutions,” he said. “I was informed of what their assessment showed with respect to a few financial institutions, which is a matter of concern that is being corrected.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/looser-mortgage-practices-matter-of-concern-flaherty/article2324057/

==========

Is it just me, or does F seem concerned?

#205 kilby on 02.02.12 at 3:16 pm

#204 Bigrider
Motorcycles do have as much right to the road as anybody else but some ruin the perception of what we are. As to accident “protection” I have not had an accident in 45 years just by riding “smart” The noisy pipes are only loud after you have gone by so the average bad auto driver doesn’t hear you until AFTER you have gone by.

#206 Van guy on 02.02.12 at 3:17 pm

Oh, so you don’t care about others guys with kids? — Garth
—————————————————–
I feel for those family. But I can’t worry about them because there’s nothing I can do. When my family and I immigrated to Canada in the 80’s, 5 of us lived in a 1 bdr apartment. Poor as hell and was laughed at by other kids. I thought we had to be rich just to have a meal at McDonald’s. Did anyone care for me then? Nope. Did any care that I was always hungry? If I have the chance to make money legally, I would do it. You need to put yourself in other peoples shoes to understand what we went through.

#207 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 3:29 pm

#200 kilby

Their daze are numbered. Vehicle noise by-laws are starting to be enforced across Canada [and the US].

http://tinyurl.com/7sqeeul

http://tinyurl.com/77chgju

#208 Canadian Watchdog on 02.02.12 at 3:36 pm

Looks like Canada’s housing problems made its way to The Economist magazine again. http://www.economist.com/node/21546057

The issue is alive and airborne now.

#209 coastal on 02.02.12 at 3:38 pm

Looks like the boom is officially now over in Victoria. The local TC rag who usually splashes the monthly real estate numbers on the front page on the morning of the first day of the month like clockwork, have now gone two days without a sniff of any mention of the real estate.
I guess they want to avoid the mention that the median house price has declined 10% from this time a year ago. Typical media, bury the story and no one will ask, just sip their tea and brag to their friends.

The VREB loved to tout on their site for the first time the increased amount of “showings” as if that is actually a true indicator the market is heading back up. Desperate times mean desperate spin tactics. Of course the buyers are tiring of the “doom and gloom stories” too. Naturally, just throw caution to the wind and just keep buying suckers.

#210 steve on 02.02.12 at 3:44 pm

soon the real estate market will resemble dantes 9th circle of hell

a frozen lake where nothing moves, and the devil is trapped in the ice.

http://www.morethings.com/images/satan/Gustave_Dore_Inferno34.jpg

#211 Vincent HRD on 02.02.12 at 3:50 pm

#204 Bigrider

Loud pipes dull minds.

#212 Renting and loving it on 02.02.12 at 3:52 pm

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”

Done and done. Thank you.
Aloha and Mahalo.

#213 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 4:04 pm

#199 DA

I try to refrain from predictions, but I do insist on facts and truth instead of ‘gut instinct’ and ‘spin’. While you seem obsessed with my identity ( partly my doing, as I have teased you relentlessly), I have no interest in who you are. I see the purpose of this blog as a wide-ranging discussion of the housing bubble sprinkled with tidbits of investment advice. I can provide a perspective from the point of view of a builder/developer who sees things as they are……not how I would like them to be………providing a counterbalance to the hype and untruths emanating from the real estate industry.
So far you have proven incapable of disproving a single statement I have posted. That satisfies me greatly.

#214 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 4:05 pm

Daily data from YatterMatters:

Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 96
Back On Market Listings – 7
Price Changes – 18
Sold Listings – 13

Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 296
Back On Market Listings – 26
Price Changes – 73
Sold Listings – 38

*Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/02/01 Time: 18:49 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.

yikes!

#215 Marc Faber Comments on 02.02.12 at 4:09 pm

Marc Faber talks about Canada real estate about 4 mins in. He made some great stock market calls last year.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/faber-says-stocks-might-disappoint-after-april-may/2012/02/02/gIQATPeijQ_video.html

#216 Realtors know Canada is in housing bubble on 02.02.12 at 4:12 pm

look at all the realtors kick and scream everyday on this blog trying to sucker anyone in the mother if all housing bubbles in canada. Canada is in such an obvious housing bubble that they would even call the housing market a balloon which still implies and admits housing prices in the GTA and elsewhere are OVERVALUED. Look for 25-50% drop in prices. It can’t happen says the uneducated realtor? No one thought $120 nortel would be worth zero. Kick and scream all you want realtors but many of you will be looking for work. Yup some realtors in the states flip burgers now. That is the future for some realtors. No wonder they are scared.

#217 Kip on 02.02.12 at 4:14 pm

#197 Form Man

#196 Kip

Home prices have been falling in the Okanagan for 3 years now. Vancouver and Toronto are now beginning the same descent. Looks to me like this blog has been correct with it’s forecast………

I don’t know about Okanagan but GTA is one of those love to hate areas for this blog and, after years of calling for real estate collapse it is now a moot point. Reading this blog is like reading the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf. It’s useless information, kind of like the latest Environment Canada forecast that we are now going to have a mild winter. Who cares!

#218 GuyInBurnaby on 02.02.12 at 4:18 pm

On the way to work this morning, grabbed a “24” free newspaper and saw a picture of our Vancouver major and Calgary mayjor smiling and joking with each other on a conference of candian major brains. I’m sure they all have good ideas of what’s really happening in their cities besides how to clear garbage more efficiently.

Back to the topic of today’s post, I’m happy seeing some ‘positive changes’ to the market for the long term good. But somethings from the past reminds me that TPTB will do whatever they can to prevent the change. I think I will keep waiting and watching how the reality will unfold.

Thanks Garth! You blog is one of the best things I’ve discovered in this country since I landed here and learned a lot from it. Also I want to thank all the blog dogs because they are also the reason why I keep coming back on a daily basis. Weather in Vancouver is nice today, everybody has a nice afternoon/evening.

#219 BMW Rider on 02.02.12 at 4:24 pm

Kilby…LOL Do loud pipes save the lives of the bozos on Sport bikes doing wheelies on the highway?

“Hey hey…Look! Do you hear that!”?

Ride Smart!

#220 Lurking Lola on 02.02.12 at 4:30 pm

200 comments in, so I doubt this will be read, but:

Garth, I’ve been with you from the get-go. We are renting, saving, investing. Since I track the market out here in frothy Victoria, I was *SHOCKED* when my best friend suggested this week that we move out of our rented house (in a great neighbourhood, with a yard and a water view) and buy a condo.

“Why would we buy a condo?” I sputtered.

“So that you can sell it in a couple of years and buy a house.”

Knowing that they have a beautiful house (and the mortgage that goes with it), we haven’t talked housing. I gently told her that the Canadian market was tanking, and Victoria condos were an equity death trap. And reminded her of family that are already stuck in condos they can’t sell without taking a loss….

I read it Lola. — Garth

#221 GuyInBurnaby on 02.02.12 at 4:34 pm

Two more news from Taiwan:
http://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/06/20/2003475928
http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type=aECO&ID=201201040032

#222 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 4:36 pm

#218 Kip

GTA is on track for one of the most spectacular housing busts ever. I will watch from the Okanagan with great interest. At least we have a great climate and scenery to console ourselves with………Toronto….not so much……

#223 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 4:37 pm

#218Kip on 02.02.12 at 4:14 pm
#197 Form Man

#196 Kip

Trust me Form Man doesn’t know shit. Real estate volumes in Kelowna are back to pre-bubbles and consistent since 2009. Kelowna prices, after more than doubling on average from 2003 to the peak of the bubble are down but a mere 15% on average with many a neighbourhood as stong as ever. Condo’s however are the culprit to blame for when mixed into the average are they which cause any discernable discrepancy from that which I claim.

What you claim to have observed since you started reading this post 2 years ago is but a continuation of a story that has been going on for 4 years now.

I don’t predict the future and I do tend to rely on my gut instinct to a great degree which has proven reliable and trustworthy as any mans forecast but Form Man is the bitter one who’s development has gone stale with the market return to norm rather than those heady times he misses so.

#224 bigrider on 02.02.12 at 4:39 pm

#206 Kilby.

I have not ridden as long as you but quite likely more kilometres under my belt at over 100k ( or maybe not, does not matter) . No accidents either due to ‘smart’ riding.

Now you are correct about the noise only reaching the driver of a car after you have gone by but I think there is value in it, stop light to stop light, as a reminder that you are there. In addition, in heavy moving traffic, I think the noise of throttling up and down also reminds car drivers of your presence.

Your points are all valid, not discounting them at all.

In any event, as I said before, if it saves one life, then worth it.

#225 disciple on 02.02.12 at 4:44 pm

Saturn eating his own children, only Jupiter escaped:
http://vimeo.com/17717638
Such is the nature of tyranny: even those who enforce it eventually become victims of it. No one is immune from the clutches of Big Brother. All of you who work for the system will be destroyed by it. So watch out, all of you who currently lick the boots of the corrupt criminal elite — you too shall be destroyed by the very same system you now serve. Because tyranny knows no mercy.

#226 KingBubbles on 02.02.12 at 4:44 pm

I wonder what will happen in Winnipeg this spring ?

http://homes.winnipegfreepress.com/winnipeg-real-estate-articles/resale-homes/Citys-hot-real-estate-market-wont-slow-down/id-2572

#227 JohnnyBravo on 02.02.12 at 4:49 pm

F bomb Alert:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/2/2/Flaherty-concerned-over-mortgage-lending.aspx

#228 Form Man on 02.02.12 at 4:52 pm

#221 DA

honestly buddy, if I were less polite I would say you are making a laughingstock of yourself, but I shall refrain……..

#229 Villain? on 02.02.12 at 4:54 pm

#134 NOBODY on 02.02.12 at 10:03 am…

…You’re an… (insert word of choice)!

Anyways, I am a renter, used my money from the sale of the house to invest.

Got the statement of my investments today, 20 K plus more than when I started.
I’m quite content.

I’ll be buying a house when the prices are reasonable, worth my while. And I’ll be paying cash!
If that don’t happen, have money – will travel.

In the meantime, I will have my money working for me, instead of me working for my money.

Do you understand the difference?
Still think I’m a jealous renter?

#230 Throwstone on 02.02.12 at 4:55 pm

In recent news….

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/looser-mortgage-practices-matter-of-concern-flaherty/article2324057/

Of particular concern is this statement…

“Difficulty gauging the risk of an overheated condo market would cause problems for the banking sector if the market were to collapse. ”

Good job Flaherty!…Good to see your fiscally conservative policies are prudent and about to backfire.

#231 Stevenson on 02.02.12 at 5:09 pm

Where in the world do you see these sales figures in Vancouver? Price 45% price reductions??? No one speaks nonsense like this but you. Pretty sure its the other way around and bidding wars everywhere too. Hell the prices were never expected or predicted to be this inflated before, but guess what, they are…. So whats the prediction that will be wrong again?

Sales, not prices. Learn to read. “Deals for detached homes on the west side, in Richmond and West Van are down between a third and 45%. Overall, sales plunged 13% from 2011 and 18% from 2010.” — Garth

#232 I'll do anything for a listing on 02.02.12 at 5:19 pm

Evil Liberal$ – Criminal$ by PPP in BC
PPP is private public partnership – meaning, public pays forever profits to private business.

Dix – NDP has passed them in the polls.

Check the link I posted yesterday on the income gap in BC.

http://www.cbc.ca/onthecoast/episodes/2012/01/31/income-gap/

Chocolate covered mountains won’t save them but chocolate covered asians might????? Just saying….

#233 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 5:23 pm

#218 Kip – It’s useless information, kind of like the latest Environment Canada forecast…

This blog is for entertainment purposes only. Have sno-cone and enjoy the show.

This link is fairly entertaining too…I use as a rough guide…
http://tinyurl.com/7yk99o6

#234 sam.i.am on 02.02.12 at 5:30 pm

lattes, blackberries,
gps, meth,
ipods, lapdogs, nimrods,
rugrats & cataracts

I’m with bigrider.

#235 kim on 02.02.12 at 5:32 pm

#217 Realtors know we are in a housing bubble

It’s obvious to everyone who reads garths blog that realtors who post here non-stop are desperate and concerned the housing bubble cash cow is crashing on them and thus the easy and ill gotten money they made will never happen again in their lifetime . Its sad that they would lie and ruin lives for a dollar. Many are uneducated and some i’ve met seem not to even have high school. Just watch cp24 that guy Al looks and sounds so criminal and fake one who have to be stupid to be duped by that guy. It now seems everyone knows housing in Canada is in a bubble.

#236 jakethesnake on 02.02.12 at 5:49 pm

CMHC is approaching its legislated insurance limit of $600 billion. If parliament doesn’t agree to raise the limit the housing market is going to come crashing down like a house of cards. No slow melt.

#237 bill on 02.02.12 at 5:50 pm

the car drivers are barely aware of other cars let alone pedestrians ,bicycles or motorcycles.
loud pipes wont save your ass.
beware of the left turners.they have killed a lot of motorcyclists and dont see or hear you.

#238 Preciousss on 02.02.12 at 5:52 pm

Marc Faber looks like he has not taken a good dump in years. Poor chap.

I do agree with his recent comments about slashing all governments by 50% and taxing the Vatican in order to solve some of the world’s financial problems.

#239 maxx on 02.02.12 at 5:59 pm

“For too long this pathetic blog has urged you to take profits and get liquid. I hope you did.”

Yup. Un gros merci Garth.

#240 Westernman on 02.02.12 at 6:08 pm

James Hoffman @ # 113,
If the blog is just too much work for for you ( I know, you have to use all that precious energy to scroll and not to mention moving your eyes back and forth ) why don’t you just move along to things that aren’t so taxing?
This blog is run pretty well – take your censorship bullshit elsewhere…

#241 TurnerNation on 02.02.12 at 6:13 pm

152disciple on 02.02.12 at 11:13 am

Media’s job is destracting us with First World problems, while the other hand robs us blind:

How to get your whites their whitest!
We know he has WMD.
It’s RRSP season.
Olympics.
Burqas.

#242 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 6:17 pm

#234Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 5:23 pm
#218 Kip – It’s useless information, kind of like the latest Environment Canada forecast…

This blog is for entertainment purposes only. Have sno-cone and enjoy the show.

Too true.

#243 triplenet on 02.02.12 at 6:24 pm

DA

I think you may be well served by watching Sesame Street on Saturday mornings.
Do not watch Bugs Bunny or Roadrunner – that’s for us big boys.

Who is going to buy the excess supply of Toronto condo’s?
I know…..

#244 Devore on 02.02.12 at 6:25 pm

#159 Willa

my broker pounced on a good-return bond that came in yesterday. It’s for a mortgage insurance company, offering 5.01% on 8 years.

I kind of cringed when he said mortgage insurance.

Wanted: bagholders.

#245 kilby on 02.02.12 at 6:32 pm

#220 BMW Rider.

I’m considered boring in some bike circles…V-Strom, it does what it’s supposed to do really well and I can be on it for long hauls and stay comfortable.

#246 Devore on 02.02.12 at 6:33 pm

#179 Ham

And anyone who took your advice 3 years ago missed out on a huge tax-free gain. Now is a good time to sell but anyone who sold before now lost out on a lot of money.

To add to Garth’s comment, in many places those who sold 3 years ago are now counting their blessings.

#247 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.02.12 at 6:39 pm

#33 Victoria

Answer to Garth’s question about “Who is they?” is this: they are a lot of “locals” who’ve spent way too much time pouring through Monday and Boulevard magazines’ lifestyle/occasional real estate features.

These folks are losers, but in a good sense, in that they are “victims” of business/government malfeasance: losing too much in the stock and bond markets, wracking up too much sidewalk cafe, spending too much time on cheap charter flights to decapitated Mexico, and otherwise “livin’ the Island kinda life!”

All’s they got in the end, other than pink gins and the like, are fist fulls of assessment authority blather and MLS BS to keep that ol’ “lifestyle” spirit going as this real estate juggernaut of never faltering prices slows to a crawl and tips ever so elegantly into that great damp ditch of economic reality. Kindly refer to today’s postings on House Hunt Victoria blog.

Ah, yes. Economic reality, such an elusive local quality.

Let’s just see how this all works out for them by summer.

#248 OneMoreThing on 02.02.12 at 6:54 pm

Who let DA become the moderator?

Any chance of limiting one’s position to only 3 posts Garth?

I know your motivation for keeping him here but seriously most can make their point in just a few entries!

#249 Cato on 02.02.12 at 7:06 pm

Finally the race to the bottom begins. It would have been far healthier to let markets take their course and not pump up emotion during the last few years but gov’t rarely does what is prudent. The bubble bought Harper his majority on the back of the country, had the market been allowed to take its course without interference the political backlash from the resulting decline would have been severe. Unfortunately we now face a real crisis and all political parties had a hand in creating it.

Most provincial finances are already in crisis but its rarely reported in media. In BC it seems like bulk of media advertising is now influenced by gov’t, an ill-informed public is the end result. Reality can’t be ignored any longer though I doubt many will recognize the cause of their coming misery. I laugh when I hear talking heads speak about end of recession. For most it has yet to begin.

#250 maxx on 02.02.12 at 7:30 pm

#105 Jay Currie on 02.02.12 at 4:26 am

People are beginning to set their price on the basis of “replacement value” or the number of dollars they have “invested”.

Their fiscal screw-ups are their own. I sure as hell won’t cover their stated “replacement costs” nor so-called “investment”. At any rate, many owners do home “upgrades” that are atrocious, often getting material from second-hand stores and hardware store seconds. Contractors often use recycled material from job sites. As an interior designer, these botch-jobs are a horrid eyesore. The final insult is the sad attempt at staging with dollar store wheatgrass pots and candles in the bathroom or on a fireplace mantle….and the single red pillow on the sofa for a “pop”of colour? Puuuuhleeese!

#251 Westernman on 02.02.12 at 7:32 pm

OneMorething @ # 249,
What is it with all these corn pone – self appointed blog censorship weasels today? Look, OneMorething, if you don’t like DA’s pitch just scroll on by – how hard is that?
Maybe you thin-skinned censorship dickweeds need to move on to less stressful things – this blog is a free-wheeling, frank exchange of opinions and if you can’t handle that you might just go watch some dumbed – down drivel on T.V.

#252 Maya on 02.02.12 at 7:51 pm

Tax season is coming again, I always feel sick to see those rich immigrants to report min income or no income for the year to entitle all the benefits…. We as taxpayers have to subsidize them, but actually their husbands are making hundred thousands and millions back their countries. To me, it’s abusing our social systems. Why the CRA won’t invest on these kinds of cases? I bet IRS is more strict on the foreign incomes. That’s why Canada is a heaven for money laundering!!!

#253 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 8:13 pm

I can’t afford the time to create and monitor my own blog. Hell I spend, clearly, too much time already here. Add to that the anonymity this blog affords and it is clear why I am here.

But as I’ve stated before, if enough of you demand that Garth submits to your request I will gladly leave and return no more.

#254 Daisy Mae on 02.02.12 at 9:04 pm

#251 MAXX: “As an interior designer, these botch-jobs are a horrid eyesore. The final insult is the sad attempt at staging with dollar store wheatgrass pots and candles in the bathroom or on a fireplace mantle….and the single red pillow on the sofa for a “pop”of colour? Puuuuhleeese!”

**********************

That is hilarious…but I’m sure, quite true! LOL

#255 islander on 02.02.12 at 10:52 pm

#182 April. Spotted the disappearance of signs on Salt Spring Island about 6 months ago. Clever tactic actually when you think about it.

#256 Dave on 02.03.12 at 12:38 am

Where’s all those planeloads of hot Asians when we badly need them? LMAO

#257 joey jo jo on 02.03.12 at 1:32 am

look at what this Vancouver west side realtor has to say.

“Many listings have been languishing while sharply priced homes are still selling fast.”

http://www.samwyatt.com/Blog.php/real-estate-update-this-ain-t-january-2009-or-2010

#258 “I know a number of small business owners who turned speculators and flippers because of their ability to acquire large loans based on poorly reviewed business records.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 02.03.12 at 10:34 am

[…] routine. How many of these are out there? I guess we going to start finding out in 2012.” – Junius at greaterfool.ca 1 Feb 2012 11:32pm Share:TwitterFacebookRedditStumbleUponDigg This entry was posted in 08. Overextended Buyers and […]

#259 Tony on 02.03.12 at 12:00 pm

Re: #149 Neil on 02.02.12 at 10:58 am

List while you can and price it low or watch it drop in price like a rock.

#260 Rental monkey on 02.03.12 at 12:25 pm

@westernman @241 and @249:

Oddly enough, I find myself agreeing with you. No censorship. Garth’s blog runs just fine:as is.

If you dont want to read DA’s incessant verbal diarhea, move on past it. It’s really not that tough.
Keep the great posts coming Garth! We love it!!!

Now if only I could be in Taraanah today to meet the illustrious Smoking Man, my month would be complete!!!

Have a great weekend all, and Garth give Bandit an extra little scratch under his chin from me. And maybe a lil ol piece of Baldersons.

#261 Harlee on 02.03.12 at 3:59 pm

With all the grim news (although the TSX is up today as I type this..) we all need a laugh at the end of the day. “Sh*t Saskatchewanians Say” has gone viral on Youtube. Check out the boys at http://threadmedia.ca/ Are you conservative or a communist ?

#262 I'll do anything for a listing on 02.03.12 at 6:04 pm

FIRE SALE!!!!!

FIRE economy in Canada – (wikipedia it)
now in distress.
Alright about time. A country that produces little, does litte value add to it’s resources, and cut’s back on anything public to privatize for profit.

FIRE & Capitalism don’t work for the good of the people, so it eventually fails.
Realtors are going down – read here:

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1125820–jobless-in-canada-the-new-unemployed-may-surprise-you-think-bay-street-real-estate

Please note here in Vancouver, there are 10,000 realtors. Yuck..
That means 1 realtor for every 100 people in the Lower Mainland.
Went to a High School reunion recently, all the underachievers, those that you wouldn’t trust with $100 or your homework are now REALTURDS.
Give your head a shake!!!!!!

You failed at high school, now you’ll help people get into debt. You couldn’t balance a Grade 11 accounting spreadsheet, as you’d rather smoke weed, now you’re “helping” someone enter a debenture contract for the rest of their life.

YOu are the 99%…

Nobody needs realturds

#263 “There’s a guy in my office who inherited his mother’s 90 year old house on the west side of Vancouver. He listed it last week for over 2.5 million and got an offer at his asking price, but he turned it down.” on 02.04.12 at 5:02 pm

[…] “There’s a guy in my office who inherited his mother’s house on the west side of Vancouver. He is on the verge of retirement. He listed the 90 year old house last week for over 2.5 million and got an offer at his asking price. He turned it down on a recommendation from his realtor until after the first open house. It’s only been a week but so far, no firm offers. Perhaps his greed has caused him to miss his opportunity?” – BCing You at greaterfool.ca 2 Feb 2012 12:14am […]