This week more than 80 houses were listed in the once-hot Vancouver city-suburb of Richmond. I hear sixty-three of them are still for sale. A year ago, of course, they’d all be smoked by now. So does this portend what comes next?
Beats me. But perhaps there’s a more ominous sign of changing times. A number of properties bought by horny HAM less than a year ago (when Richmond was the Paris of YVR) are back on the market. Seems more than a few Mainland Chinese are having sober second thoughts about whether this is in fact paradise.
Like 3560 Barmond Avenue, a crappy 43-year-old, three-bedoorm, one-bathroom suburban nightmare which an idiot bought in April for $1,168,000. Of course, there was never any intention to live there, but rather to raze it and raise a McMansion. Or flip for big bucks. Crafty Guangdong logic. Except that Richmond’s now tanking, and the tidal wave back across the Pacific may have commenced. The property’s back on, for $1,260,000, as the new owner tries to get out fast.
But good luck to him. The cracks are everywhere.
Listings are up 25% in Vancouver while sales are down 23%. Yikes.
That’s not all. Sales for December were down almost 12% from the same month last year with deals for single family homes leading the way – off a spanking 18%. The average SFH price has fallen 13% since peaking in June (just like I reported yesterday in Toronto), and is now back to levels not seen since the end of 2010.
Of course, it’s still a city on crack. The average SFH is $887,000 while a normal detached house on the west side is $1.9 million (down from $2,068,857 in June).
Family income is stuck at $83,130. That puts the average detached home across the region at a multiple of 10.6. Let’s all remember the US real estate market collapsed when that number hit 4.6.
But horny Vancouverites will tell you in Starbucks (there’s one on every corner downtown) that it’s different in the city because everybody wants to move there – hot, rich Asians along with all those snow-whacked Boomers from Mississauga and Sherwood Park. Local real estate values have nothing to do with affordability, they say (looking under cafe cushions for quarters to pay for their drinks), because there’s a whole new paradigm. Like when we had the dot-com boom, and companies with profits were so, so analogue.
This is why the Asian reversion is revulsion to greedy sellers yet thrilling to young families priced out of their own city. Ditto for the dwindling inflow of the wrinkly people from southern Ontario and Cowtown. Migration into BC has come to a screeching halt commensurate with the bloating of real estate values in the Lower Mainland. There just aren’t enough wealthy fools from elsewhere in the country – where houses cost about half – to keep feeding the left coast habit.
I mean, why would someone selling a palace in Etobicoke for $1.4 million pay $2 million for a handyman’s special in West Van when they can simply stay home and add in a luxury villa in Florida costing four hundred? Then they can actually enjoy the winter sun instead of watching mould grow on their driveway, and possibly the dog.
In short, as listings grow, HAM fades and the rest of us giggle, VanCity’s market is entering what will probably be a pivotal year. As this regrettable site has pointed out in the past, there are no longer economics supporting area real estate values, just delusion, emotion and lust. As the Amazons prove to me with shocking regularity, this is hard to keep up. Especially at my age.
But what will happen?
Mainstream economists are still vastly underestimating what’s brewing. Jacques Mercil says his definition of a ‘significant correction’ in Van will be a price decline of 3.5% in 2012, followed by another 4.4% in 2013.
Dans vos rêves, Jacques.
And BMO Nesbitt Burns’ Sal Guatieri adds: “If you listen closely you can hear the sound of air seeping out of Canada’s housing balloon.” But he’s still forecasting “modest gains” this year. Hard to understand, when even the Vancouver Real Estate Board reports sales are now running more than 9% below 2009 levels.
In fact, the longer places like Vancouver (and Mississauga) see swelling prices and falling affordability, the more difficult will be the correction. Already seven in ten Canadians say they think the country’s in a recession – about the same proportion who have no pension, yet own houses. The disconnect in people’s lives is stunning. We’ve made real estate into a religion, a passion and a cult. Just as we believed Nortel or Bre-X could rise without end, and piled in at the top, so housing has become a surrogate for thinking.
What we all need is not a house, of course. It’s liquidity.
Yesterday’s post from the young engineers gave you a window into clear thinking. In response, this blog clogged with haters.
Did I ever mention we’re screwed?
220 comments ↓
2nd?
Third!!! OH YEAAAH!!
Congratulations on the S&P upgrade from ‘pathetic’ to ‘regrettable’. Is this like moving from a rating of ‘D’ to ‘C’? And speaking of D’s, thanks for the picture a few days ago.
I am sick of all the “1st?” and “2nd”? posters.
If you are going to post first at least be confident about it. Like: First!!!!!!!
(I wasn’t even trying tonight, I just happened to refresh this pathetic blog once – and low and behold a new thundering missive appeared from the bunkerville nave).
WTF..as they say in Q bec,,,,,,,,we’re turd
In van, December was a dud in the restaurant sector… Whistler is a dud this winter with attendance down. Car sales are a dud outside a few HAC (Hot Asian Credit) Central locations and brands with an increasing number of credit rejections – all according to the sales guy at the bureaus st. BMW dealer.
Boats for sale at a high, champagne and premium wine sales at a low…
The sell off of non core “assets” and minimisation of non essential spend are definitely visible…
Yup… We’re (some) screwed… Unless you rented, bought in cash, Have liquid investments and no debt…
Garth, isn`t time you addressed the middle portion of the country. I mean there is a lot going on in between VC and the 416.
Lets hear your real take on Deadmonton, Cowtown, Skatchatoon, Regina and Winterpeg.
50% correction!
In GTA, the condos are selling at $500/sf on average now. A 50% correction will bring it down to $250/sf which was the price in 2005, 2006 and 2007. So it is really not a big deal correction and it is reasonable. Stocks do all the time.
50% correction. Go for it!
The interesting thing with bubbles is that they burst.
“Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the rally would last forever, find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality, by selling or trying to sell. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries, – the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper, but with a bang.” John Kenneth Galbraith in A Short History of Financial Euphoria
http://Www.shitharperdid.com
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Ponzi Planet
The Danger Debt Poses to the Western World
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,806772,00.html
If Van goes into a serious housing correction this year, there will surely be some left coast loonies proclaiming the accuracy of Mayan predictions…..
I left Vancouver in 2005. Sure glad I did. When I go back to visit family, the conversation usually turns to RE with snooty relatives boasting about their one million dollar houses. I can’t wait for the housing bubble to pop and humble these folks. It will be a tough fall to reality for Vancouver. Perhaps the expected earthquake will pop the bubble?
Don’t take this the wrong way…but in the Chinese culture the herd instinct is far more powerful than most others ( except for tribal cultures where the chief says kill and you leap for your spear), It has become fashionable conversation for the Dim Sum queens to have at least one property ‘on the market’. If you don’t…you’re a nobody….and that status in the Chinese culture is like finding your name in the social obituaries. When a single Chinese person sets their hair on fire…expect conflagration….every car dealer knows this…….sameness is de riguer in this culture. Does the current wave of listings have something to do with the overall economy of real estate…that has yet to be seen. Remember folks….this is an entirely differant culture you’re dealing with……and traditional rules don’t apply.
I would look more to the newest pronouncements from the Harper administration regarding restrictions on pensions of the civil service…..that is the heartbeat of real estate investment abuse in the ROC. If these fat greasy braindead ‘investors’ stop buying second and third houses to lay off the wash of outrageous cash they get for surfing porn in the various ministry and crown offices…..then you have the makings of a movement.
The third party has stated that ‘we’ll stop attracting good people into the civil service if we cut the benefits’…..Bwahahahahahahahahaaaaaaa…….the bulk of new hirings are pandering for special interest groups because the number of new bodies in the country can’t be hired by the flagging economy so the ‘government is hiring those communities to suck up the votes that would otherwise be unemployed and angry……..go figure…….300,000 new bodies every year plus all their family members…..in an economy that is shedding jobs…..you figure it out. If you were a new immigrant and offered a cushy fat gov job within days of landing would you complain about the pension plan?
The lardy fat scions of the unionized dinosaurs have already figured this out……and the writings on the wall….if real estate tanks…so will a large part of their net worth……if the ‘F’ cuts some of the fat off the pension plan….then there goes the caviar dreams with it….and hence a wave of selling…….a virtuous circle…so obvious that even those in a coma can figure it out.
Does brain dead count? Then you would qualify nicely. — Garth
Is there anyway to profit from the decline in residential real estate in Canada? I’m guessing that I should not invest in home builders/suppliers but should wait for dips in major banks (because these will quickly rebound when everyone remembers the CMHC covers the losses not the banking cartels). Any advice appreciated.
And this, folks is why we (and THOUSANDS others) have chosen the RV lifestyle.
We accept that this is not everyone’s “cup of tea”, but ownership costs ARE low, and “relocation” is a case of unplug, start up and off we go. In a hurry that’s do-able in 30 minutes.
Try selling a House / Condo in that timeframe!
The end of the housing bubble is not a result of HAM or wrinkly people. 2012.
Our False Creek area condo was assessed (city assessment) at well over $500K last year (1000sq ft, 2 bdrm/2 parking stalls). Our assessment arrived today, and it’s only around $460K. Interesting how they city folks are changing their assessments. Of course, the wifey bought it 10yrs ago for $230… and it’s pretty much paid off… so, not worth leaving when you need a place.
We have kept friends and family from doing something stupid, however. Did seriously consider selling and renting, but realized our payments (including condo fees) were much lower than rent…
I guess with mainland China’s real estate market imploding, they’re starting to realise real estate can fall and 1 mill for a crack shack in Vancouver ain’t that smart.
Form Man I will tell you exactly what is wrong with the real estate market right now… greedy developers. Developers who built an oversupply of strata units and then shoved them down the throats of unsuspecting newbie investor/flippers. Developers who employed their own sales force because to hire a REALTOR® would subject them to operating within the code of ethics to which a REALTOR® is bound. You hired sales people not agents of a seller nor a buyer. Ultimately that supply had to have an end user as we soon even the most economic incompetent learned when so many units were for sale the laws of supply and demand. But why did the developers build condos in the first place? Because the gross profit was so much more lucrative than in single family dwellings… HUGELY so.
And then what happened when the bottom fell out of that market? Developers started dumping prices to compete with one another. Of course they had room to do so as the profits were so big in their condos that they could drop prices 30% and still make money. But what of those newbies they sold their wares to at the peak of the market? How could they compete with a 30% drop in the price of their unit? Obviously they couldn’t. And then to add insult to injury many developers instigated conditions that precluded a “flipper” from “flipping” (assigning a contract) unless they gave to the developer a large bonus. Greed… pure unadulterated greed.
Two underlying points to this story Form Man; #1 This is the condo market I speak of NOT the single family residential. #2 yes it has affected the single family residential by virtue of the many newbie flippers who took out lines of credit on their homes to finance their real estate speculation venture. But those numbers I provided in my previous post are true numbers taken raw from the MLS system here (OMREB Kinnexus) not anything but the raw unadulterated numbers and medians not averages skewed one way or the other. Single family residential in Kelowna is doing just fine Form Man. It is that segment of the market which was inundated by outside developers coming into this city and doing what you say you do outside it now because you cannot do it here anymore. You guys didn’t know when to quit.
Now that all being said am I mistaken or didn’t you allude to being a developer yourself Form Man? What brought you to Kelowna in the first place? What are you doing elsewhere now that you can’t do it here because you and those like you have already shit here enough that it smells like a sewer to you. In time your excess will be flushed from the system.
And you ridicule me?
There you have it pups and poodles. A waterfront home in these parts costs upwards of $2mil. And Form Man says he owns his free and clear. You figure it out from there.
And Form Man I am not bitter about this because I fell prey to it. I did not. I am bitter because it is those developers who F###ed up this town from that which it was. Fortunately it came crashing down around them before they could do too much intollerable harm.
“#6 Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth on 01.06.12 at 10:19 pm
In van, December was a dud in the restaurant sector… Whistler is a dud this winter with attendance down. Car sales are a dud outside a few HAC (Hot Asian Credit) Central locations and brands with an increasing number of credit rejections – all according to the sales guy at the bureaus st. BMW dealer.”
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Vancouver’s “Wealth Effect” sugar hit is beginning to lose its steam, very predictable. I saw the same thing happen here in Alberta when home prices went to the level of stupid back in 2007. Practically everyone I know who had a house and saw the value soar went on unbridled buying binges. One relative who did not have 2 nickles to rub together and owed everyone in the family money one day showed up at the door with a pay back check, a month or so later their total home renovation began complete with new furniture and electronic toys and 6 months after that the brand new vehicle showed up in the driveway. I won’t even talk about the vacation.
Now they have a home reno that the novelty has worn off on, outdated electronic toys, a vehicle that has dings, scratches and does not look half as nice and shiny as it did 4 years ago. They also went from having a very small and easily manageable mortgage to now having a very large pay check sucking home equity loan on top of their mortgage.
Today I was walking through a small shopping mall here in Kitchener, its named the “FREDERICK STREET PLAZA”. The funny thing is that it was only 7:45 pm Friday yet more than half of the stores inside were closed. I went up to one and I see by their stores hours that they close at 6 pm weeknights. Its very surreal to see 70% of all of the windows in that mall dark, its like the city is going broke or something? Then it hit me; this is EXACTLY the way it was when I was a teenager way back in 1978-1982; the economy was in the dumps and everything was really poor and slow.
So this is the way the economy is going: we are slowly DE-LEVERAGING, winding down our debt burden . I’m not taking about Canadian houses, I’m talking about the WORLD-WIDE economy. As the world-wide economy slows down and people / governments try to make do with less, our exports will dry up and along with them will go our jobs – GONE !
When our good high-paying jobs go away, well, I have no idea how this will affect our housing, anything could happen.
BEWARE the screwed. Live within your means. Save as much as you can. Invest wisely. Stay liquid. Once you do all that, have a beer.
#19 Devil’s Advocate
Really DA, this is too rich even for you. Greedy developers?
So Garth, what % does the avg SFH in Vanc or T.O. have to fall to reach the level it was at when you first started preaching about a coming real estate downturn?
Would you rather I warn about it after it happens? — Garth
Listings are up 25% in Vancouver while sales are down 23%
like California 2006
Bubble? We must stop using this word says the new columnist for B.C. Business Mag. Is she an economist? Nope. A realtor. Here is this brilliant analysis (as Minsky spins in his grave):
http://m.bcbusinessonline.ca/lets-change-our-vancouver-real-estate-vocabulary
Here is another anecdote on the current state of things in Vancouver. I came home today to find out I am a proud owner of 2 new pair of shoes courtesy of the going out of business sale from long time Vancouver retailer Freedman shoes. Wife got 4 pair.
Yet another local retailer out of biz. Sad. So soon after Christmas tells you something. Has anyone seen so many empty retail spots on 4th Avenue before? Me either.
@22 Waterloo Resident:
then you may want to review your statements from previous posts saying that house prices will double soon…
7 Not 1st on 01.06.12 at 10:24 pm
Garth, isn`t time you addressed the middle portion of the country. I mean there is a lot going on in between VC and the 416.
Lets hear your real take on Deadmonton, Cowtown, Skatchatoon, Regina and Winterpeg.
I can answer that cause Garth knows that there is no bubble out west to pop any time soon.
Even if there was a bubble here in the west, how could it pop when loads of people are moving here with low unemployment.
– we have the natural resources the world wants
– interest rates are going to stay low
– low provincial debt
– Saskatoon is still well behind the national average house price,
– Saskatoon has the number one economy.
– when first time buyers are priced out of entry homes like condos and town homes, then it is a bubble. That would mean about a 50k higher average house price here. If that happens then yes its a bubble, but until then ….no bust here, maybe next year, or the year after
There are places in Canada that matter other than Vancouver and Toronto?
Garth only posts on places with NHL teams currently in the playoffs!
Garth,
The actual saying in French is “Dans vos rêves” not “Dans votre rêve”.
Keep up the wonderful prose which I look forward to after work and kids!
#16 P & T S on 01.06.12 at 10:48 pm…
What does “…unplug, start up and off we go…” in 30 minutes have to do with selling a house or condo?
More to the point would be how fast you can sell an expensive, gas-guzzling behemoth of an RV?
I must admit we thought about this after retirement, but chose the less expensive option of purchasing a SFH down south to ‘winter’ in.
After crunching the numbers, the savings over ten years were more than $ 100K – so we decided to use that $ 10K a year for fly/drive/hotel side trips.
But like you said, it isn’t everyones’ “cup of tea”
I remember in the mid 90’s almost all richmond mansions were boarded up and lawns/weeds as high as the windows.
Is it happening again? Looks like it.
I have heels, ability to hold my breath for long periods, limber from Pilates, know how to change the oil on a Harley, know wrestling holds, and can tie knots like a good sailor….
I want to be a Amazon.
Please apply to [email protected]. Or, come on over. — Garth
“The Paris of Vancouver”? Somebody take the crack pipe away from Garth. Richmond is a dump. It stinks, it is ugly, many strip malls, characterless houses, and it is sitting on silt. You wouldn’t know if you were in Canada in many parts
‘YVR’ is an airport, dude. — Garth
Listings up 25% and sales down 23%? That is a pretty broad and general stat. Compared to when? Where you getting these random stats? I am pretty sure it is the other way around according to a “report”.
#29 Harry in Saskatoon, no bust here, maybe next year, or the year after
I’m from saskatoon and i think you are completely delusional.
Checked the price of potash and uranium lately?
Potash companies are cutting back production because there is an oversupply and lower price.They are planning longer shutdowns to limit their production hence longer lay-offs.
High paying entry level jobs in saskatchewan are too few and far in between to sustain existing RE prices. It seems walmart is the only one hiring right now…
quit drinking the kool-aid…. on second thought, keep drinking it.
From an older post of mine…
“My parents lost a bundle in the RE ‘correction’ of the early 1980s. The toys (boats, RVs, sports cars) they had bought with ‘home equity’ were all sold at a big loss. The ‘retirement’ nest-egg disappeared. Lawsuits took the rest. They died broke…”
RE agents in the Okanagan may have changed, but what I saw then was the slime of the earth. I watched an agent and company lie themselves silly.
I saw an entire RE board collectively lose their memories, and their meeting ‘minutes’.
I saw lawyers for the RE agent and company lie in court, and the anguish on my parents’ faces as they realized they had been screwed by people they trusted.
What I learned about using ‘home equity’ was valuable, but even more important – I always assume a RE agent is lying – that helps keep things in perspective.
Junius… I live right over from that W. 4th strip… I’ve seen the shops empty, and no likely prospects either. Wife and I frequent many restaurants in the area, and having been in the business myself, I can’t believe some of those places can survive (knowing what they must lease for). It’s even worse over one W. Broadway – particularly away from UBC.
Didn’t know Freedmans was going under! I gotta walk over there – need new walking shoes. Will tell the wife tomorrow!
Hi Garth, I would also like to hear you talk about Cowtown, what are your thoughts?
In BC, i’m not buying until at least 2013 when the HST is supposed to be gone anyways. So by then, i hope for lower prices and a correction to even get a double dip discount! I got 500k sitting in the bank, but i’m a smart buyer.
Garth,
A few comments about the “engineer couple” from yesterday. I work in O&G and the comments by some regarding the math of their “savings” were fairly accurate. I know for a fact that the majority of engineers make roughly $100K unless they have a lot of senority or are highly specialized in which case they may make $150K or a bit better. That said, it’s not impossible with either signing bonuses, stock options or paid expenses to make that kind of coin. A buddy is a Mech Eng and we were looking at jobs in Dubai – starting at $200K.
Garth is there any information about average price/sq ft compared to property values? I remember building my first house in 1999 for $90/sq ft. Now a normal house is around $200-250 sq ft, mostly due to the stupid costs of lots. A lot that was $65K 12yrs ago is now $200+. I want out of Edmonton to the surrounding area, but the price of lots is ridiculous. We can sit and wait, our property is up over 55% since we bought – no chance of going under.
there is a lot of new residential construction in vancouver, and so a lot of construction incomes. the city is not economically diverse with strong mfg centers like gta or mtl. if this is the unraveling, unlikely to be a slow grind down.
Retail is hooped in Vancouver. High end antique stores that have been around since my eight track was stuck on Carly Simon….going, going, gone. Owners say they are tired.
Notice a lot of for rent signs here, and traffic seems light.
People are on the street, but, you can just about feel the angst.
Friend came from Winnipeg to interview for a great gig at one of the top Brokerages. He passed. He took one look at the stupid real estate prices and sayonara.
Backs up today’s post. Vancouver is a smug place, with a bad case of Downtown Eastside, to go with RE prices for the certifiably insane.
So many people are going to get hurt and it makes me very upset. I guess it gets down to common sense.
Good luck, the Year of the Dragon starts on the 23rd. Gung Hei Fa Choi, indeed.
Anyone notice that the City of Calgary is changing its property assessment search site so that you will require a roll number and an access code to use it?
https://assessmentsearch.calgary.ca/Login.aspx
Basically, if you are a renter, you won’t be able to do thorough assessment searches or sales searches.
Realtors win, existing home owners win, renters lose, new home buyers lose…
#15 Ron
Short Home-depot’s stock
Stevenson #37 – Anyone making money from RE will always put out rosy reports.
#43 http://FTP…there is NO WAY that they make that much. Only people who work in the public sector make actual salaries. People in the private sector make only enough to buy a tarp to pull over themselves at night and buy a Lil’ Debbie’s Snack Cake from the Esso.
Oh wait, that’s just Truth Hammer’s delusions of persecution. Forget it.
I am no expert on China but I have an idea what is making Chinese investors nervous about their Vancouver properties.
In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2011/11/06/property-prices-collapse-in-china-is-this-a-crash/
You should just have a look at the parking lot at McD’s on 41st and East Boulevard (kerrisdale in van’s west end). Stacked with bimmers, Mercs, Porckeys and a Bentley too.
The HAM is Ewing at McD’s not at restaurants on 4th. Eating can be private, shopping and appearances public.
The sophistication is limited to the price tag and the visibility of the commodity. If it is expensive and I can be seen in it I need it.
I just got a $260k net commission selling software for a year (big ticket stuff) ya know where I shop? Nowhere visible. I wear no recognizable labels, rent, no debt and invested in several businesses.
Next year my pipeline is even more plentiful. My 10 yat old jeep will last, I’ll reinvest the proceeds and keep growing the nest egg… Liquid and mobile.
I have been headhunted by a firm offerings a VP position in California at 5x the average family income in Vancouver as a base salary and 2% equity to boot… Know how much time it would take me to move there? A $3k forefeet of my deposit on the lease and the time to pack.
No listing, losses, realtor fees, etc. Can you spell L-I-Q-I-D? I may even leave the jeep in the garage and avoid the hassle of selling it…
Oh yeah…..
Y’Ewes morons still can’t figure it out.
The average family doesn’t need any more than a double wide trailer.
More F’ecinient use of space, and cheap too, espeshully if make plumbing and electrical optional.
–
“. . . watching mould grow on their driveway . . .” — Interesting thought. Probably not in the same league as watching paint dry, but to each their own!
“Mainstream economists are still vastly underestimating what’s brewing.” — As said yesterday, things can and do change so quickly now that a one day forecast is past its best buy date after 30 minutes.
“The disconnect in people’s lives is stunning. We’ve made real estate into a religion, a passion and a cult.” — Yes indeed, worshiping ever-deteriorating bricks and mortar. It is an individual’s or couple’s freedom of choice to sink their money into whatever they want, and they have to live with the consequences of their choices.
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#13 Uh Oh Canada — “Perhaps the expected earthquake will pop the bubble?” — That’s a good wildcard and an excellent distraction from TROTW. Link from a few days ago said Oregon is rumbling.
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Going Down At least some prices are dropping; UK defaults; Eurozone Unemployment; CFR ready to dump the Euro? If it’s in their interests, yes; Euro Indecision; Chinese vulltching on Euro assets; Iran EU delaying oil ban. Simply put, they are cutting off their nose to spite their face. If they ban Iran’s oil, they would only hurt themselves; Refusal to Prepare Some reasons why; Children will feel it “The banker bully boys came here from Clockwork Orange, multitasking with motorcycle boots and attendant orgasms.”
PSR Personal Savings Rate. Yes, I realize it’s Gail van Oxlade, but I’m out of ideas; Steve Keen and a nice Oz chart showing debt to income levels; Gold Bugs This one’s 4 U and and Gold Buy Signal; Banxters Now is their gilded age; Barnes & Not-So Noble; Mtge. stuff; 1955 – Present chart; Ireland and Spain Good lesson for NAmerica; Oil Prices.
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Scorpions To some humans, they are a tasty treat; Bullet Quickest way of silencing someone who probably knew too much; Remember HAARP? 2:0001 clip Obomba’s plan: Strip benefits to buy more weapons at the Pentagon, because More Wars are coming; Cheeseburger vs. Bacteria Cheeseburger won; New Trojan Horse dealing with bank accounts.
Behind the scenes “The real issue is the fact that Iran has upgraded its medium range conventionally-armed missiles with GPS technology, making its missiles much more accurate. This means Iran can now target Israel’s own nuclear, bio and chemical weapons stockpiles, located inside Israel, as well as the Dimona nuclear reactor.”; Harper’s Hot Hiney Fortunately, we are not required to kiss it; Japan Changing farming habits.
Camera stores are reporting a run on wide-angle lenses, as realtor(s) sell desperately tiny rat box condos.
Look at the top right corner photo. Then, look at the photo beside it. Same view. Honey, I shrunk the width.
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyPhotos.aspx?propertyID=11327535&PhotoNum=9
#30 Harry in Saskatoon, no bust here, maybe next year, or the year after on 01.06.12 at 11:30 pm
– we have the natural resources the world wants
—
Want, sure. When they have the money to pay for them then come talk.
HAM has been walking away from deals in the GTA for months. Realtor friend says HAM will no longer touch vancouver . I asked him how he would know? buddy says uncle who is also a realtor works in vancouver and says HAM has disappeared a few months before they left Toronto around summer. I guess HAM is leaving Canada. flippers are going to burn in the housing crash.
2003 prices are on the way.
People are maxed out on debt. It is not sustainable.
There’ll be a washout once the Euro implodes which will happen sometime this year.
With RE making up 20% of Canada’s gdp one can guess Canada will have a housing crash worse then the US. Prices have fallen over 7% since start of summer which means thousands and thousands of buyers are underwater. Realtors are worried their easy lifestyle of doing nothing and making money are over. In many cases it already is over.
Garth
Would you rather I warn about it after it happens
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Actually I wasn’t intending to be critical, just curious,in fairnes its extremely difficult to time it correctly, I do admire your conviction though, unlike people like Dennis gartman who have no convictions at all.
Too, too funny. Poverty and hating in NYC. Entire city complete opposite of the engineers from yesterday…
http://www.urbanbaby.com/talk/posts/53801088
http://gawker.com/5873793/rich-people-are-funny-when-they-whine-about-feeling-poor
Just a sample:
$350K, so, so, so poor. Not being dramatic or anything, really poor. We totally struggle every day. UES.
You are over-extended. Get your expenses under control.
over extended? Us? Gee, you are brilliant. Obviously we are totally over extended. If we could get out of this mess, we would, but we can’t.
What are your big expenses?
two homes.
Me too – but we are comfortable – get rid of one. Rent one out (I know it sucks) if you’re really strapped and under water on both places. Don’t be so grumpy about it though – you got into it. Get out or stop complaining.
Most poor people own two homes
You need to be kicked in the junk and have your “two homes” taken away. Then you’ll know what “so, so, so poor” really means. Yes I am judging. Sue me.
And so on…
Enjoy!
“Except that Richmond’s now tanking, and the tidal wave back across the Pacific may have commenced.”
GOLD.
#33 – Snowboid: Expensive and gas guzzling?? Really?? Try diesel LPG co-injection and you’ll be in for an interesting surprise! As to selling it – again easy – we paid relatively little for it and unlike the greedy “House Owners” we are quite prepared to sell for LESS than “Market Rate” when the time comes, so, yes we WILL be able to sell FAR FASTER than you can shift your Apartment.
ANNUAL fixed costs are easily met by ONE MONTH’s investment income and we can go anywhere at our pace (no airport / TSA issues for us thanks) and we have no problems associated with a fixed home – even rentals have grass to tend, gardens to maintain and (where you live) snow to clear.
This is why we live in Ecuador. Again, not everyone’s cup of tea, but it suits us just fine. (And I note the Ecuador Govt has recently received $18 billion from the US – certainly helps our local economies!!)
Housing prices (and running costs) are going to have to take a big dive before we ever reconsider “ownership”!
#15 Ron
Short Home-depot’s stock
====================
Complete right, I’ve notice a substantial decline in cliental at home depot in the pass several week.
Malls has been empty and lost of For Lease or empty store front from east vancouver (hasting street)
Broadway and kits 4th avenue area (which is unheard of).
First chink in the real estate armour will be the condo market. Because the poor will get maned first.
Followed by low end housing, while the condo market speed up in deteriation
Then the Middle class and high end houses will be effected. While the condo market gets decapitated
Feels like the early 80’s except this time is different. It feels like the whole world is in a rut, and worst of all theres a bunch off boomers ready to retire, if they can and may be forced to if the econony goes south. They may also be force to sell their only asset and deal with retirement.
Unlike the 80’s there was still alot of money in peoples bank account and far less debt. But now Debt is ruling our way of life. We faced the wealth effect, we will soon feel the depression effect
Benny didn’t look like an economic luminary yesterday either.
#22 Your Kitchener mall being closed at 6 isn’t a symptom of the economy it’s a symptom of being in a grey-collar neighbourhood full of people who don’t spend very much. You can tell by the assortment of health related businesses and the dollar stores and such. I live near one in South Oakville which is just as bad, even the coffee shop here went broke, can’t make money selling one small coffee to people who complain if the price goes up two cents. If you go on a weekday at 11:00 a.m. I can assure you the joint will be really jumping or reverberating with the shuffling walker crowd and the Pharmacy in particular will be doing a huge business – what with the bargain priced meds you get here in Ontario regardless of income, once you pass that magic number. Actually, come to think of it, DEMOGRAPHICS is what will keep us in a recession for the next 30 years or so.
Please apply to [email protected]. Or, come on over. — Garth
————————————————————-
LOL your Harley must badly need an oil change.
You are right Devore and I apologize for the little rant which in so many ways was uncharacteristic of me. I am a right wing kinda guy who promotes free enterprise all the way. Those developers are the epitome of free enterprise as they invest and risk millions and employ hundreds building to the demand they see in the hope they will reap rewards for their efforts but with no guarantee of the same. And I apologize to them for my rant which was unsuited to my intent.
Still I do believe we must all agree that this sector (condominiums) of our housing market is rife with imbalance on so many levels. I can point to many a development here in Kelowna which has gone bad one way or another. And the capitulation of that market I do believe is at the foundation of that of the whole market although not so much as to undermine it beyond repair nor cause it to fall too much. Still the systemic failures in the condominium market have caused a notable crack in the foundation of our real estate markets which will take considerable time to repair as we work through that excess inventory.
The biggest problem which ensues from this fiasco is those who were duped into becoming a Donald Trump want-to-be, so many of which have subsequently had to take out lines of credit to pay for the unit they never intended to own. Now they add those units to an already plentiful rental pool as they wait for that buyer they thought would come so much sooner before the market dropped from under them.
I am working with so many of this latter group, they who bought into the Ponzi scheme, who now are at risk of losing the home they put up as collateral that they could pay for their speculative venture they never thought would go that far. I am working with so many of these people who have a vacant unit sitting there costing them thousands every month that they cannot afford. I am working with many of these newbie real estate tycoons who were sold a specific complex by a “sales person” who had no capacity nor interest in discussing with them the alternatives. I am working with so many who’s marriage and family are torn apart by the financial strain. You tell me who we should blame for their misfortune?
Agreeably these Greater Fools must take on a great share of the responsibility for their fate as no one held a gun to their head. Nor did anyone hold a gun to the head of those who followed Bernie Madoffs investment advice.
I am not saying at all that these developers were at the top of the pyramid scheme but they, you must agree, were close. Above them stood the banks I suppose and above the banks our governments which ultimately must be held accountable for all public policy as they so fabricate and dictate by which all others conduct themselves accordingly from there on down.
Understand that I do still maintain the real estate markets are not in such a poor state as so many here believe they are. There are pockets of severe capitulation to be sure and condomiums are one of them largely for the reasons stated above. But so too are there segment which have continued to prosper despite these economically challenging times and they have helped moderate the route back to norm as we work through the excesses and abuses in and of those condo market fiascos.
“… Housing has become a surrogate for thinking”
Garth’s Best Quote Ever!!!
Cheers
#37 Stevenson
Keep showing your pathetic posts here, I need someone to mock over the next 12 months, you’re a joke … I’m looking forward to you blaming the ‘developers’ for causing the impending Bubble Burst in real estate.
Idiot.
RE #51 Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth on 01.07.12 at 1:20 am
A lot of truth in your story Marco. Being liquid certainly does facilitate a mobile lifestyle. Not subjecting oneself to the emotional need to show off “bling” is most certainly a more responsible and mature way to go. By casting off those burdensome anchors does open up opportunities that might otherwise have to be passed by.
But there are other “lifestyles”, no more right nor wrong, where roots are put down and foundations laid that future generations may be spawned which take pride in “home” be it house or country. And there is nothing wrong with that either.
To each their own.
But I agree with you on your condemnation of the “If it is expensive and I can be seen in it I need it” mentality and I envy your freedom to be able to drive an old Jeep which you have no emotional or financial attachment to. In my business I am pretty much prohibited from doing the same and must take great care so as to not offend one way or the other by driving a vehicle that is too shabby nor one that is too snobby. Unfortunately more measure us by our accoutrements than our accomplishments so I do tend to drive more bling than I need as I cannot afford to not look like what they think they need as first impressions can make or break the deal before I ever even have further opportunity to prove myself. It’s a business expense and a cost of doing business. I do look forward though to the day I can once again drive a beat up old truck again not caring what anyone else thinks enjoying its patina and character if not the thousands that stay in my bank.
Not according to our membership buyer profile surveys Garth. We have seen the proportion of buyer movement within BC dwindle compared to the proportion of migration from other provinces to BC. Last year 81.6% of Central Okanagan Buyers were from BC, 16.3% from other provinces and 2.1% from outside Canada. This year those numbers shifted to 72.4 of Central Okanagan Buyers being from BC, 25.95% from other provinces in the country and just 1.65 from outside Canada.
Yes our volumes dropped by a third after 2007 and much of that was the loss of those Albertan buyers then. But remember, as I have previously pointed out with numbers from the system to back it, our volumes have been relatively stable for the last four years so when you add that into consideration those numbers mean something.
When volumes are down 30% and locals can’t sell their houses and move, your stats bear me out. — Garth
OK Marco #51…I can spell L-I-Q-I-D………. L-I-Q-U-I-D !!!…….
Junius….it wasn’t just back in the 70’s when things got grim along 4th ave…….Do you remember ‘The Bitter Winter’ of 82-83? The 80’s recession was a real nut grabber as well. There was a period of about 18 months where you could fire a cannon down either Robson or Granville without fear of hitting someone. The recessions of the 80’s and 90’s had a couple of things in common…they were both induced by the governments mishandling the economy and……they both lasted around 12 years from a-hole to breakfast. The affected generational cohort was pulverized……if you weren’t on the government payroll ….you got screwed.
There was the famous case of the guy who was arrested for shirt-collaring a UI front desk worker who asked the ‘client’ what kind of job he could do……the guy grabbed the clerk by the shirt front and said…”I can do your job you little a**hole”.
There was also the famous/infamous waiter/waitress job competitions on Granville Island where the restaurant made the applicants run a relay race for the ‘reward’ of filling out an application. There were something like two thousand people show up for a half dozen…’jobs’…..all to be humiliated. I remember a local TV station interviewing through the crowd….one guy they picked on was an entomologist……
Ahhhh…a rebuke …..I must be drilling close to the Dino-Liberal apparatchik zeitgeist of the lost generation of creepy Toronto know it alls….heart warming to know that Canadian values are still so hated by the east coast elite of Rosedale. Truth…..is not supposed to be politically correct. ‘Stinkfinger Rae’…..leader of the third party has announced….”they are destroying the past”………Bwahahahahahhahahaaaa . Really? Rise up…rise up !!!!!! ………….!!!
Two anecdotal signs:
1. A couple of houses we looked at in Belleville last May have just reappeared on the market with minor (3 to 5%) reductions in price. It’s a start.
2. Pre- and post-Christmas traffic in Ottawa stores has been less than I have seen in at least 10 years. The public service population may be holding on to its wallets waiting for the axe to fall. Look out, real estate.
Weekend off topic, a follow up to yesterday’s post about how little freedom we really have.
(Take note, Westernman).
Guy expresses an opinion (something other than “bomb iran!”) and the oppressive speacial interest groups running this country call for him to lose his job and livelihood. Can you believe it, losing your job, maybe pension, cannot buy food for your kids, all because you expressed an opinion contra to the regime’s pet projects. Iran? China? Saudi? Nope. This is not Canada.
Let this be a warning to you. You will be sent to economic jail if you get out of line.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/01/06/quebec-mayor-israel-face-a-face.html
Quebec mayor under fire for anti-Israel remarks
Stéphane Gendron made comments on his talk show
…..
Michelle Whiteman of Honest Reporting Canada, an organization that monitors media coverage of Israel, said Gendron’s public position makes his opinions particularly troubling.
“He’s been given a responsible position as a television host of a morning show in Quebec, so people look to him as someone who has a certain amount of authority … and knowledge,” she said.
Her group is calling for Gendron to be fired and for the network to apologize.
#51 Marco
Can you spell L-I-Q-I-D?
Were you selling ESL software?
#13 Uh Oh Canada on 01.06.12 at 10:37 pm
“I left Vancouver in 2005. Sure glad I did. When I go back to visit family, the conversation usually turns to RE with snooty relatives boasting about their one million dollar houses. I can’t wait for the housing bubble to pop and humble these folks. It will be a tough fall to reality for Vancouver. Perhaps the expected earthquake will pop the bubble?”
*****************************
…and just wait until they get their property tax notices based on those prices. Should wipe the smile off their faces.
We’re screwed? Not you Garth. You will be fine, dude.
Richmond though, is super screwed! HAM is now bologna.
#22Waterloo Resident on 01.06.12 at 11:09 pm
“Then it hit me; this is EXACTLY the way it was when I was a teenager way back in 1978-1982; the economy was in the dumps”
We have a long way to go before we get back to those days. I flew on Braniff Airways from Chicago to Houston in January 1981. There were 6 passengers on the whole Boeing 727.
Unbelievable but true.
#19 mark on 01.06.12 at 11:05 pm
“I guess with mainland China’s real estate market imploding,”
What are you talking about? Bull.
It’s amazing how people are still delusional in Van. Over the last few weeks, I’ve spent time a many parties. The people I’ve spoken to, still believe RE is a solid investment. Many of them still are house hunting now, because they think that spring will bring higher prices. They talk like they are so confident, and they are kings with property, or going to be kings. There is no sense of fear as prices only go up. These weren’t good friends so I didn’t want to bring up this blog, as it can be insulting to certain people.
And for my closer friends. I highly recommended this blog as I really don’t want my friends to get screwed. I hope many people out there can just get your friends to read some of these great posts from Garth. Just by reading 1 certain post, can seriously change the mind of a horny kid. It really seems like people that buy, don’t research enough on why we are where we are. All they hear from Global is up up up!!! Assessments up, up, up!!!
#42 dave on 01.07.12 at 12:35 am
“In BC, i’m not buying until at least 2013 when the HST is supposed to be gone anyways.”
Explain to me how the HST gone will make any big difference. Wouldn’t the PST be added on by the builder of new houses anyway?
#33 Snowboid: “More to the point would be how fast you can sell an expensive, gas-guzzling behemoth of an RV?”
****************************
A depreciating asset, big time. I know of a few people who have sold their gas-guzzling RVs and opted for ‘park models’ permanently set up in RV parks.
#57 HouseBuster on 01.07.12 at 1:53 am
“There’ll be a washout once the Euro implodes which will happen sometime this year.”
The Euro will not implode, Europe is the second largest economy in the world.
You’re the “washout”.
#61 P & T S on 01.07.12 at 5:11 am
“This is why we live in Ecuador. Again, not everyone’s cup of tea, but it suits us just fine. (And I note the Ecuador Govt has recently received $18 billion from the US – certainly helps our local economies!!)”
Ecuador and its new socialist dictator are now raping the North American, including Canada’s, mining companies.
What are they going to do next? Confiscate your RV?
#64 detalumis
Tis true, the older one gets the less one needs on average. And the fact is that most older people don’t know how to use most popular devices, or choose not to. I consider half of this crap to be time wasters.
I hosted a big spaghetti party, everyone was under 40. They were texting each other at the table. No word of a lie, everyone had out their iphones and were showing the new scrabble games, comedy shows, etc. They could have stayed at home.
Demographics for sure, a lot of elderly people are meeting their friends in malls happy for the social interaction. Not good for business, when they are splitting a muffin 3 ways. But you need less as you age.
I bet a lot of them have plenty of money stashed and are quite secure. If this mall goes tits, they will find another.
We will be there soon.
But I will look better.
RE: #70 Devils Advocate
I concede that there is some truth in that Garth but also point out, again, that these times are a return to norm not a departure from them.
The single family residential market is generally doing just fine but for a few sectors. The very high end has taken a hit as have the outlying areas where the demand of the peak was forced to go due to a lack of inventory in the more desirable locations. Remember “icecream melts from the outside in”? But many single family residential areas still enjoy a healthy demand with many seeing such high demand amid low inventory that multiple offers are common.
Indeed I think a good argument could be made that we have arrived back at those normal times as prices and volumes have been stable now for 3 and 4 years respectively. These volumes, while certainly down a third from the peak in 2007, are as were before the ramp up from 2003 on. A great part of those increased volumes at the time were in consequence to the rampant real estate investment schemes embarked upon by those I spoke of in an earlier post. These were not healthy additions to the market place as we now well know from the experiences we have most recently endured. Their absence is welcome all-be-it missed by some of those more short sighted.
Again this is a return to norm, not a departure from it.
Again the volume of real estate sales these past four years are normal and commensurate with that of those pre-boom levels. They may be a tad higher than those before the year 2000 but that is to be expected with increasing populations.
I would think you must all agree that these would then be more a return to norm than a departure from them. Indeed anything less than these current volumes would be unhealthy and warrant the concerns of the blog dogs. But they are not and have not been lower for the past four years. That in itself suggests that the prices MUST be sustainable for nor have they capitulated any more since the quick and sure correction which ensued following the world economic crisis of 2007/08. People are paying today’s prices in numbers equal to pre-boom levels when we generally all consider now that it was a better market then. But was it?
Buyers tend not to buy in a true “buyer’s market” fearful that prices have yet more room to fall. Buyers tend rather to buy in a “sellers market” fearful that prices will continue to rise thus pricing them out of the market. Certainly we are not in a “seller’s market” yet. Thing of it is buyers tend to miss those true “buyers markets” as they stand idle frozen in fear.
More EI rage as the dysfunctional Harper Government [sic] takes its toll. Basic services denied. These are not “entitlements” as we ALL pay into EI with the hope of never needing it. Smells like an AIG or Enron scam.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/story/2012/01/06/pei-ei-wait-shotgun-584.html
A long wait for Employment Insurance led a P.E.I. man to threaten the safety of himself and others with a shotgun last month, says his lawyer.
Mounting bills led to an emotional breakdown, said defence lawyer Trish Cheverie. (CBC)
…
Cheverie told CBC News her client was so distraught about not being able to make his rent that he grabbed a 12-gauge shotgun and began threatening himself and others in his home. Then he locked himself in a bedroom
#61 P & T S on 01.07.12 at 5:11 am…
Sorry, you misunderstood, we paid less for a SFH winter home in Arizona than a five year old Class A diesel pusher (40 ft). We have no grass, no garden and no snow.
The people we know are not having much success selling their units, and when we drive by the big RV lots here in Arizona the only sound is the crickets.
I do envy you living in Ecuador, always wanted to visit there. And I agree that prices will have to take a big dive in Canada before we buy there.
to Garth; can you explain why borrowing to buy dividend bearing stocks and letting the dividend pay off the loan for you is folly? How is this strategy any different than owning real estate and having a renter pay it off? pls respond. thx
I have not suggested that on this blog. — Garth
FYI – Latest issue of Burlington Post newspaper (city next to Oakville/Ont) has a prominent article by Prez of the local RE board claiming “no bubble here”. On the contrary, Burl-Hamilton region is touted as among the most promising areas in all of Canada for RE, and possibly the only part of SW-Ont that will see growth in 2012. They claim “job growth, transport corridor [GO Train into Toronto I guess] and low rates well into 2013” will keep things stable, or even growing, this side of T.O.
China eyes more property tax
Posted 01/06/2012 07:03 PM ET
The gov’t is open to imposing property taxes in additional cities to cool off housing prices, an official told a local newspaper. Shanghai and Chongqing were the first cities to tax homes last year. Guangzhou, Nanjing and smaller cities in China’s middle west region could follow. But other steps to tame the market are taking hold. Average prices in 100 cities fell in Dec. vs. Nov., the 4th straight drop.
http://news.investors.com/Article/china-eyes-more-property-tax/597024/201201061903/China-eyes-more-property-tax.htm
Not 1st,
Let me help you out on why little is said about the middle part of the country… nothing is going on there, very little of the population lives there, nothing the few that live there has any effect on the rest of the country AND nonbody cares about that middle part of the country.
Hope I cleared that up for you. No charge.
eaglebay – Parksville on 01.07.12 at 11:59 am
#42 dave on 01.07.12 at 12:35 am
“In BC, i’m not buying until at least 2013 when the HST is supposed to be gone anyways.”
Explain to me how the HST gone will make any big difference. Wouldn’t the PST be added on by the builder of new houses anyway?
******************************
At the present time HST is added to any/all services pertaining to real estate, including realtor fees. So yes, it makes a whopping big difference.
I have a good friend who is looking to buy a townhome in Oakville in the next year, when she moves back to Canada.
What is the consensus on Oakville prices?
She says, of course, it is different there, affluent etc etc. Will Oakville escape a big(ger) correction? What do people think the potential 5 year correction on a townhome in Oakville will be?
I am from BC, so I don’t know about this area other than it is, supposedly, ritzy.
Thanks!
18 L(S)A – What do you mean by a “city” assessment? I thought all properties in BC were valued by the provincial BC Assessment.
22 Waterloo ( 28 Junius too) – you’re probably both old
enough to remember when Sunday was actually a day off
for everybody too. Small town BC would even typically
have a weekday where small shops were closed (Monday
in Port Alberni, Wednesday in Nanaimo). The retail
landscape has certainly changed, either driving the small
ones out of business or leaving them with no successors.
Wonder how we survived with so much less “stuff”
decades ago. Maybe we will return to that.
#92 Westernman
Like I said before, its a small man and a small mind that needs to belittle some place they no nothing about just to feed their superiority complex.
Anyway, if there is nothing going on there, then feel free to send your portion of the transfers payment back to us. We will gladly take cash.
I’ve solved the mystery of slowing sales and floods of listings (pardon the pun) in Richmond and West Van!
That’s right, I’ve figured out where all of that Hot Asian Money is going: DENMARK!
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-01/07/content_14399342.htm
Sorry Vancouver, apparently Denmark is the BPOE for Chinese cash… or, maybe the Danish media is catching on to the Canadian MSM’s tactics for RE Pumping?
yet another witty and insightful comment from Westernman.
#66 Devil’s Advocate on 01.07.12 at 9:02 am
I am working with so many of this latter group, they who bought into the Ponzi scheme, who now are at risk of losing the home they put up as collateral that they could pay for their speculative venture they never thought would go that far. I am working with so many of these people who have a vacant unit sitting there costing them thousands every month that they cannot afford. I am working with many of these newbie real estate tycoons who were sold a specific complex by a “sales person” who had no capacity nor interest in discussing with them the alternatives. I am working with so many who’s marriage and family are torn apart by the financial strain. You tell me who we should blame for their misfortune?
is this the norm that you claim we are back to?
Garth did a post back on Halifax. There is a slight possibility we would move there. I was told by a Halifax RE agent better buy now because with the shipping contract prices are going to go way way way up. Ha, ha ha ha. Everyone will want to move to Halifax. I laughed and laughed.
Anyway, Garth did a post about Halifax RE and I can’t seem to find it. If someone could help me out it would be great.
#78 eaglebay – Parksville: “Bull.”
No bull. Google.
#93 Westernman
“Let me help you out on why little is said about the middle part of the country… nothing is going on there, very little of the population lives there, nothing the few that live there has any effect on the rest of the country AND nonbody cares about that middle part of the country.”
———————-
You forgot to mention it’s lousy with resources that the rest of the world would love to get their hands on.
#92,
nevertheless, the Middle Part has at least one advantage: no Western morons.
Richmond, BC is just doing fine thankyou very much. Come for a visit whole neighbourhoods being bulldozed with beautiful monster homes being put up. If Junius could be so kind to leave his westside enclave and come to Richmond and report back the true FACTS that the entire City is being bulldozed and rebuilt because we all know Richmond is a WINNER would be appreciated. Remember best restaurants in the world in Richmond.
The story I hear is that, yes, the Asians are bailing out of Richmond but only because of the fear of a Fukashima moment and the potential for Richmond turning in to a puddle. My pals in granite foundation West Van tell me they are bubbling up all over that burb, though not west of 25th. Thar be dragons…
#85 Devils Advocate
Tell your theories to the guy who owns this place:
http://tinyurl.com/7zlq6qg
On the market about a year now. An end unit townhouse a mere stone’s throw from the False Creek waterfront and a 10 minute walk to trendy Granville Island Market. Two price reductions.
Location, location, location…
Crickets, crickets, crickets…
#86 – DA
On this I agree with you DA. Human nature is such that people often miss great buying opportunities when they present themselves, for fear that they’re “catching a falling knife”. And while it may be true that prices could fall even further after the purchase, it’s also true that they could eventually climb higher than the original purchase price given enough time. (This applies to stocks and bonds as well as real estate.)
People can’t wait to rush in and buy when prices are at nose bleed levels, and common sense suggests the bubble is about to burst. But when prices moderate, and the prospect of “making a fast buck” diminishes, no-one is interested.
If people stopped seeing their home as a way to ‘make a fast buck” and started seeing it as a place to live and be happy in, they would look at real estate in a different way and see lower prices and lower interest rates as a good time to get into the market. If you have a decent down payment, with enough extra cash to pay all the expenses associated with buying a house, have a secure job and are not swimming in debt, this is an EXCELLENT time to make a great deal on a nice home (and NO, I’m NOT a REALTOR).
If you live in the home long enough you may, or may not, make a profit, but even if you wind up making a small loss, if you’ve enjoyed the years you’ve lived in that house then it was worth it. Not much in life that’s worth having, comes for free.
Over my lifetime I’ve owned 6 houses, have broken even on 3, made a $25,000 loss on one, a $100,000 gain on another, and could potentially end up making a loss on the one I’m in now, depending on if and when I sell. However, if I stay here long enough and the market turns again I could just as potentially either break even or make a small profit.
The point is that it doesn’t really matter, because I didn’t buy my house to use as a piggy bank. I bought it because I liked it and wanted to live in it. My retirement savings are in a seperate pot, and I don’t have a HELOC.
While a gain is always nice, a modest loss is OK too, because it would be the cost of the years I spent enjoying living in my home.
Throughout my years of home ownership I kept my overal cost down by always taking the shortest amortization I could afford, making weekly payments, and taking advantage of the penalty free annual prepayment. Consequently I paid off my mortgage early and saved thousands in interest charges. The money saved was then put into my RRSP. When I moved on, if the money I got from selling my old home was not enough to buy a new one, I got a small mortgage to make up the difference and then followed the same policy of paying it down as fast as I could. As a result, my only really big mortgage was the one on my first home (which was for 85% of the value), and all my subsequent mortgages have been for less than $40,000. I’ve actually “burned my mortgage” on every home I’ve lived in so far, including my current one.
This involved a lot of sacrifice, with kids to feed and put through university, and weddings to pay for etc. But we were able to do it on a very modest income, and so can everyone else if they want to. It’s all a matter of priority, and how you view your principal dwelling. Is it something to get pleasure out of, or is it an investment?
Devil’s A,
Your long winded stories of today do not line up at all with your posts of a couple of years back when you claimed that Kelowna was unstoppable and you also appeared 20 times a day before running off sulking that the world didn’t agree with you. Perhaps, it’s time to use your vast brain power attributed to your stellar university degree to some societal benefit instead of spinning stories for newbies to buy, buy, buy despite the continuing risk in Okanagan. You blaming developers while realtors (especially self-aggrandizing spinning ones like yourself), bankers and developers continue to try to cheerlead the whole real estate bubble higher with ridiculous government intervention and historically low interest rates is fairly disingenuous, don’t you think? And if you have to say “Again,….” that many times, your argument seems a tad weak. Hope, in the future, you actually use that degree for something other than manipulating and toying with emotions of much younger, less educated newbie real estate buyers.
Only The Bankers (Realtors & Developers) Laugh
#7 Not 1st For clueless response, see #92. Best part is, nonbody himself will not move here.
Eaglebay on China
China RE is mainly hype and fudged numbers, much like Vancouver. When reality shows herself in her birthday suit it becomes addictive, for a time, and the pendulum swings the other way. Think this won’t happen to your dumpy, staid, wet, geriatric central VI town then better head to your bunker.
“There just aren’t enough wealthy fools from elsewhere in the country – where houses cost about half – to keep feeding the left coast habit.”
Ironic – if I lived in Vancouver I would pay a premium if needed to escape and live elsewhere in Canada. Couldn’t imagine paying a massive premium to live in that gloomy, mouldy place.
Well, well, well…
My little comment stirred up the herd, didn’t it?
Nonthelees, I Have spent quite a bit of time in that part of the country so I know very well what I’m talking about and the opinion is accurate.
I guess I’ll rebutt you kiddies in order of appearance…
1. Not 1st – if you’ll are stupid enough to send us money too bad… we are going to keep it. You’ll know better next time won’t you?
2. Mister Obvious… you should change your name to Mr. Don’t know there are natural resources all over the world… get it?
3. Herbie, that part of the country is absolutely full of chromosonaly challenged missing links, and that is a pure D fact.
4. And last and certainly least is Mr. ( the sun only shines in Saskatoon ) Habbit with his nitpicking comment on grammer… which sums up the mental midgets which are crawling all over said part of country.
The defense rests…
#109 Dr. Fred
Rinse, repeat…
#110 – why is it that everyone blames other people for their own mistakes? Those who are in debt to their eyeballs have no-one to blame but themselves. Just because someone took the lid off the cookie jar, doesn’t mean we all had to pig out on the cookies.
#81 Daisy May: “A Depreciating asset” – and, remind me, “houses” are not?????
Depends on the initial age of the “asset” at time of purchase – we bought our “depreciating asset” for $35k US 15 years ago. It STILL has significant scrap value, especially since the Cat 3208 engine is easily serviced, and so is the Allison 545 transmission. Even the Onan Propane generator is easily serviced. Ease of service translates to aftermarket desireability, which is a lot more than you can say for granite countertops and stainless steel “designer” appliances.
#83 Eaglebay – Parksville:
1) If Ecuador’s SO BAD, then why is it the World No 1 destination for Retirees – from the US, Canada, EU and Aus/NZ (Retirement Living – “Best Places on Earth 2011”),
2) Why also is there so much inward investment by the famouosly wealthy (e.g. Soros is very busily buying up farmland. Perhaps he just wants a larger Golf Course?!)
3) We’d not miss the RV – it is after all 35 years old with 450,000 miles on the clock! If the Govt. is SO desperate as to REALLY need our old Monaco, their need must be greater than ours!
4) With 11 months’ uncommitted investment income, and EU / NZ Passports if things get really bad we do just what we did in the past – relocate. The Wife has an RYA Yachtmaster Ocean ticket, and maybe co-incidentally, with the drop in prices in the “Big Boys’ Toys”, we have been thinking along the lines of moving from a “land” yacht to the sea-based version, now that there is a significant glut of good quality, suitably equipped vessels for sale.
Downside is that INMARSAT-C Internet is hellishly expensive. We’ll just have to stick to shorebased when we visit terra firma!
Watch this space . . . ..
Glad you pointed that out AACI Okanagan. That is the bloodletting that needs to take place. It is the leftover excess in which those sellers are going to take a hit many of which ought to resign themselves to it quicker than they appear en masse prepared to do. It is an unfortunate consequence of their foolishness.
It might would take considerably more time than I am prepared to devote to it right now as I need to head off to another appointment shortly but suffice it to say while I agree with you that this is a problematic area it clearly is not impacting our market so significantly as we are seeing “normal” sales volumes even at these prices which are but 15% off those at the peak in 2008.
Okay, this is the *third* power of sale listing from this one Barrie realtor in past 2 months…his other two listings were for townhouses.
If you are unable to carry a 200k house what trouble must you be in ??
http://chadtraynor.com/listings/listing_body.php?id=26768#jumpDescription
AN OVERSIZED HEATED SINGLEGARAGE WITH INSIDE ENTRY, AS WELL AS BACK YARD ACCESS. THIS HOME IS BEING SOLD POWER OF SALE, NO REPS OR WARRANTIES MADE. PLEASE ATTACH SCHEDULE B TO ALL OFFERS WITH 48HRS IRREV. DEPOSIT MUST BE CERTIFIED.
And here are his two other power of sales:
Check out my new Power of Sale, East End Barrie!!
http://chadtraynor.com/listings/listing_body.php?id=26242
New Listing – Power of Sale in Orillia
http://chadtraynor.com/listings/listing_body.php?id=26518
Devore re: “Aside from the fact no such engineering designation exists, software work is poorly paid…”
– I am surprised by such comments coming from you…and there are plenty of ASIC designers in Canada (highly paid I might add), but yes far more per capita in the U.S. “Software work is poorly paid…” – Really?
As someone else pointed out holding a P.Eng. is not required for most “engineering” jobs – mostly just the ones where mistakes might put a life at risk (Civil, Nuclear etc.). Some people just like the letters after their name.
Hoof Hearted: “Usually brain dead geeks”
– I am truly humbled by your intellect.
Eagle Bay – Parksville
I am very familiar with that area – houses cramed in together like a gated community. House prices are also falling in Parksville.
In the last 14 years a massive wave of retirees have moved into the area, thus prices have gone up and houses that could never sell have sold for astronomical prices, hobby farms have gone up in price …everything has even properties in the boonies.
Problem: not many new jobs other than health care. Building sites no longer litter the roads as they did in at the height of 2005 – 2006. Older people move on sooner than later that’s a fact of nature and not agist comment – who will take their place?. Remember No jobs for young families at least not at the level to buy an over priced stamp to fund someone’s retirement dreams. It is amazing how people will rationalize and even lie to themselves. That’s just plain scary.
This boom is done!
DA,
I guess I should thank for finally offering some actual data, but to borrow a famous line from the Princess Bride (as you do seem to love quites) , ‘I do not think that you means what you think it means’.
The peak volume in YOUR numbers is 3222 in 2007. In 2011 there were 1946. That is a drop from peak volume of 40%, not the 15% you claim.
And what does your little time series of medians look like after you correct for inflation? (Hint: I know cause I did it using this: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/?page_moved=1) Perhaps not so ‘stable’ as you would lead us to believe.
And lastly you do know that medians and average give the amount buyers are spending, but not necessarily what they are getting for the money, right? Or do you need someone to explain that to you?
Are you deliberately mendacious, willfully ignorant or just plain lazy?
@ #7 Not 1st
“Garth, isn`t time you addressed the middle portion of the country. I mean there is a lot going on in between VC and the 416.”
As an easterner I object to your poor geography skills.
#124 Eastern
You’re an Albertan? I guess it’s all about perspective.
#84Beach Girl on 01.07.12 at 12:30 pm
People choose to live in an make believe electronic worldthese days.
I’m 35 and many people my age dress like overgrpwn teenagers, still play videos games most of the time and live for TV and Iphones.
They need a new BMW and large TV, a house, and 2 vacations each year. It’s a right!?
We have instant knowledge (just “google it”) but zero wisdom.
Instead, most people trust the system…until the system breaks down, their mental programming breaks down, and then what.
Trusting the schools to “educate” their kids, trusting a big corp. to pay them lots of money. Until layoffs, or crippling student loans, or divorce. Then they have no wisdom to fall back upon, as their mental programming breaks down.
Westernman: I’ve heard of people moving further West for easier access to drugs, but slow down kiddo!
“software work is poorly paid” I am no techie but i read this
offshoreable…some have been training their replacements. (H-1Bs) – knowledge transfer and training go back and retrain and teach these larger teams in India/china or whatever country.
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/cm/community/features/interviews/blog/how-to-run-the-us-ops-of-an-indian-it-firm-don-t-depend-on-h-1bs/?cs=46969
=
2010
http://www.dailytech.com/Recruiting+Firms+Sue+Over+Changes+to+H1B+Visa+Rules/article18689.htm
The rule change stipulated that the employer had to have daily control over the H-1B worker. The nature of a staffing firm is that once recruited and placed they rarely see the workers they hire out to companies within America. The reasoning for the change in the rules surrounding H-1B workers was to try to prevent staffing firms from working with other companies that were fraudulently or abusively using H-1B foreign workers.
http://www.dailytech.com/Recruiting+Firms+Sue+Over+Changes+to+H1B+Visa+Rules/article18689.htm
=
Q:
If (pipeline inspection gauge) pig uses elaborate and expensive software program to translate problems via charts maps etc marks of dangerous corrosion bad cracks or other danger as the law requires this …then shouldn’t it have caught the corrosion that led to the 2006 explosion to Prudhoe bay spill ?
Aussie market if any will be a gauge of Canada RE decline. Remember, the Aussies have kept rates high, gone through artificial RE pumping programs and wont stand for printing AUD or rate declines. China demand for commodities is smoked!
Remember, it’s families inabilities to repay loans and run out of credit that will kill them and drive properties down if nothing else and it will take time. Not to mention LOC’s, Car Loans and Student loans.
I dont see any incomes going up, stagnant or declines to keep them, taxes little by little taking that take home pay lower.
This is why I believe I can agree with Garth on the National decline of 15% but only in the earlier stages as these are like smart Nortel investors who got out 15% below the top (but hell anyone could as those stocks were liquid). RE is a ball and chain if listed at the wrong price.
RE is a trickly thing! 30 years of cheap money is a permanent desease for 99% of Canadian from Y’s to Boomers! Everyones house is a crack house!
I believe one poster mentioned above the 4.6x income was reached in the USA before the crash. The same will happen here in Canada and after the first wave of crack heads give up on the addiction. The majority will be on life support until the bitter end comes.
2003 is where we are heading on pricing. I dont know exactly how long but guessing the next 2-3 years is the 15%, the next 2-3 after another 15%.
That house in West Van you’ve always dreamed about for 2.5M for just over 1.2M in 7 years may be worth the wait but interest rates will be 12%, you’ll need 25% down and your income wont support it.
RE is done, cooked and reheated 5x over by numerous bubbles and money printing. We will do a Clear Burn but it will take a decade to do so if you’re looking to buy before that, it will be a loosing proposition.
Rent, make another sucker pay for the losses and repairs, taxes etc. It doesnt matter if there are 1.4M new heads in the USA per year or not, RE is in oversupply until affordability is reached. That is still 3-4 years away in the USA.
10 years for us!
BPOE
Richmond is not fine. In fact, there were no sfh sales in the Bridgeport area for 3 months. The Parc Riviera development in this area is not selling very well. It’s a 20 acre master plan with little interest. You’re right about the building going on. What you see my friend, is over building which will bring hell into Richmond. I really like Richmond, but it’s ridiculously over priced. Looks like those prices are coming down and we are not seeing prices coming back up soon.
#124 Eastern
Quebec and the Maritimes get shorted here all the time. And I don’t think Newfoundland & Labrador have even been mentioned on this blog site. Is their anyone living in St. John’s ,Gander,Twillingate or St. Anthonys that reads “The Greater Fool” ? If so,speak up ! I was so taken by Newfoundland when I toured there in late 2010. I know that the people in that province are opinionated so don’t be shy and let’s hear from you. We really need some fresh comments from differant parts of the country than the usual blah-blah from BeeCee,The Prairies, or the Center of the Universe….
Hi #53 Nostra, re: Your link to article about H’s personality is interesting!
Have you heard about personality colors, primary and secondary; Green, Gold, Orange, Blue? It seems the most popular TV shows have characters with all four in them. And I heard companies with all four types employed are the most profitable too.
Here is a link to some more info about colors, with a link to a very simplified test if you are interested in learning more or see what your colors may be. (This very short version of the test seems to have switched my primary and secondary colors from what I recall they were a few years ago. Not sure what that says?)
http://www.online-distance-learning-education.com/article_info.php/articles_id/24
I found learning about these different personality types, how they respond, act and learn useful in dealing with others.
(Sociopaths are a completely different story of course. Stay very far away if you can! Or do what ever you can to keep then from being in control of anything that could effect you.)
Detropia matches your title Garth
2012 Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady: say it will shock people when they realize how quickly this happened….
who stayed behind ?
FYI, a very comparable house on the same street (3271 BARMOND) only sold for 780K in Nov. 2011.
This is why the US 20 year+ bond ETF (TLT) is s trading at 2008 crash-time highs:::::
Investors yanked money out of U.S. equity mutual funds for a ninth-consecutive week despite a bullish 2012 outlook from Wall Street and a December rally that’s carried over into the New Year.
U.S. funds—not including ETFs —lost $1.1 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Lipper FMI. This follows a $1.7 billion outflow in the previous week. Investors put money into taxable and municipal bond funds instead, the data showed.
“Trends remained largely intact as we moved into the first week of 2012,” said Daniel Fannon, a financial analyst with Jefferies, who cited the data in a note to clients.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45901437
#122 Don on 01.07.12 at 5:53 pm
Based on your post, you obviously don’t know the area very well. You drove by maybe?
The area is called Oceanside and is made up of Nanoose Bay, Parksville, French Creek, Qualicum Beach, Errington, Combs and more.
The so called “gated communities” are few and small and mostly located close to the ocean. The bulk of SFH are spread out over a large area and have large lots and many many acreages.
A drop in RE prices would never be much more than 15% or 20%. The retirees don’t give a hoot.
The majority of retirees are from Alberta and some from Debtario.
Many of us work online and there are jobs for the young people as many as they could find in Vancouver.
Logging is booming, thanks to China, fishing is great, there is some manufacturing, construction, health care, soon to be mining, services and maintenance of all kind.
The VI University is located in Nanaimo and attracts young people from all over.
Our professionals, lawyers, engineers, accountants, consultants, programmers and such, work online.
Welcome to the 21st Century.
I see Alberta plates everywhere including one of my own vehicles.
Next time you visit Oceanside, spend a week and some money on fuel and look around.
There’s probably more money in Oceanside, per capita, than were you are.
Ever heard of Google?
Will the whole state (penn) be home schooled and use the “virtual charter school”
According to its website, PAVCS has roughly 4,000 enrolled students.[1] Cyber charter schools enroll mostly homeschooled students[2] and also children with special needs[3] teaching them remotely via computer.[4]
http://www.pavcsk12.org/
The Chester Upland School District in Delaware County, Pennsylvania suffered a serious setback when Gov. Tom Corbett (R) slashed $900 million in education funds from the state budget. The cuts landed hardest on poorer districts, and Chester Upland, which predominantly serves African-American children and relies on state aid for nearly 70 percent of its funding, expects to fall short this school year by $19 million.
Faced with such a shortage of funds, the school district informed its staff that it will not be able to pay their salaries come Wednesday. …will the teachers really work for FREE?
http://thinkprogress.org/education/2012/01/06/399373/teachers-work-free-budget-cuts/?mid=571&mobile=nc
#104 BPOE,
I have spent more than enough time in Richmond thank you very much. I have to make a trek there about every six weeks to see a friend. It is an urban planning disaster.
Edmonton by the Sea.
#104 BPOE,
I love your “Winner” comments. Since you are obviously just as high as Charlie Sheen has ever been they are appropriate.
Most certainly my university degree does not make me any smarter than the next person. What an education does most is open one’s mind that they might explore other possibilities. When I say “again” preceding a statement I have made before, it is meant to drive home that there are other possibilities the readers of this “pathetic” blog might want to consider. Possibilities their ignorance precludes them from exploring and ultimately might cost them untold thousands before they finally learn. But you know what they say… “An education is a bargain at any price”. In time they will learn if not from me from the expense of their own mistakes.
That my “long winded stories of today do not line up at all with my posts of a couple of years back” should tell you something, for indeed I was a bear back then as sure as you are that the markets were going to surrender still more severely. That I, as much a bear as I was then, changed my tune ought to tell you something, if not the unrelentingly consistent market itself.
As for manipulating and toying with the emotions of much younger, less educated newbie real estate buyers – I did not. As a matter of fact, although you will not likely believe me, my wife and I were discussing today how many clients I talked out of getting into the market on the way up to, at and shortly after the peak. Quite frankly I don’t care if you don’t believe me as they who I convinced are that much greater advocates of my business today and that is worth far more than you can possibly know.
Ok I’ll bite but only briefly.
1. The 15% drop I referred to was peak price to present price. Volumes, across all market segments, dropped 30% from peak to present.
2. Correct for inflation… do we really need to nit-pick so much? I mean seriously… which brings me to
3. What people get for what they are paying? Seriously? Median homes have not changed that much if at all. Granted there are segments of the market which have capitulated more than the median but hence the “median” typical home. Again I consider it, if you will pardon me, a moot point which if we must address in order for you to get your head around the superfluous that you can begin to digest the facts then brings me to
4. No I am not lazy but I am very discretionary with respect to how I use my time and arguing with you is not something on which I am willing to waste it.
Oh Dear ! It sounds like Westernman is “SHORTING” Sask. again. Maybe if you would not have “SHORTED” your wife she would not have ran off with Moosejaw guy and you would not be so bitter today. In case you are interested, Westernman, I have seen “penis growth” pills advertised. I am not sure if they would work or not. I have never seen pills advertised for “Stupid” ,so you may have to wallow for awhile yet .
#14 truth hammer.
You’re nuts….And haven’t got a clue about the real world.
With regard to the Kelowna condo market my brother paid, with taxes and other closing costs 500K for a 900 sq. ft. one bedroom condo on West Ave. He showed me his recent BC asessment which shows his condo as worth 275K now. He was one of the greater fools and bought from plans circa 2007. By my calculation that represents a 45% drop before figuring real estate fees if he were selling now, but of course he can’t because he would have to come up with a huge payment to the bank as he is underwater about 140K. How can D.A. say condo’s are down 15%?
Rising debt will lead to $10,000 gold: Barisheff
By John Shmuel, Financial Post January 6, 2012
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/06/rising-debt-will-lead-to-10000-gold-barisheff/
Garth, I want to thank you for your BRA posting a while back. Thanks to that very valuable information I was able to warn a friend’s cousin NOT to sign any documents with any real estate agents when all he and his wife want is to view some properties.
Now, if I can only convince them that this is not the time to consider buying…
Penticton.
602 active listings. Last two weeks have had 11 sales and only one over $500K.
We just got the appraisal on the condo we bought in Victoria to facilitate the kids going to school. It was $241,500. Odd, as I know that we would be VERY fortunate to get $180,000 on a good day.
10160 Dennis Cres Richmond BC V7A 3R8 (East Side)
664 Sq.m = 7147 square feet lot
Sold on Jan 27 2011 for $879,000
Old assessment: $715,400.00
New assessment: $844,200
5 bed 3 bath 2 storey built in 1971 2925 sq.ft house owner says he spent $70,000 on nice renovation
Back on the market. Asking Price $938,000 also pretty sure this is a reduced price.
#136doc on 01.07.12 at 10:19 pm
I never said condos are down 15%. I said prices of the general market are down 15% from the peak. Condos are absolutely down more than that which is offset by single family residential in stable areas thus moderating that the whole market is down that 15%.
A couple of glasses of wine on a Saturday night but still I must have made myself clear.
BTW I know very well the condos on West Ave. Did he really pay $555.55 per square foot! Ouch. Greater Fools eh?
Taiwan has introduced a 15% capital gains tax on short term real estate transactions. Will Canada do the same? We have a habit of picking up trends from other parts of the world.
Meanwhile the public service unions are furious that they’re sacrosanct enclave is being invaded by ‘progressives’….Bwahahahahahahhaaaa !! Didn’t they ram these repressive measures down our throats in the first place? Look at what happened in Caledonia recently…….lawlessness supported by an appointed judge while other Canadians are branded with a differant code. Hey libero-judgy…I didn’t get all the sugar snacks I wanted when I was a chile…..if I beat the life out of a guy who trying to access his home through a native roadblock will you brand me a victim and let me off with a wrist slap? Doesn’t this politically correct ‘justice’ make you sick. How long before we get our Cauntry back from a thirty year dictatorship of Liberal dogma?
That last interchange with “Doc” @ #136 beckons me to point out that clearly my university education has failed me as “Only the Banker Laugh” pointed out at #110 for clearly I am incapable of writing in a manner that is understood by the reader.
“Know your audience, know your audience”…. I fail so miserably on so many levels. No matter how hard I try my message does not seem to have the firepower nor savvy to penetrate the prejudicial walls I bash my head against. Must think a new strategy.
Seriously, what am I missing…. Volumes have been stable the last four years and prices the last three. Does that not say something to you as it does me!?! I know where you are. I have been there myself. People are buying in numbers that are characteristic of a “normal” market and they are paying those prices YOU think are ridiculously high. More telling is they have been doing this now for over three years. Three years is a long time in ANY economic cycle people.
I posted on the last article regarding what a fan I am of Garth’s (pathetic lol… NOT!) blog, and how I appreciate his voice.
I said that I would be getting an offer on my rural Vancouver Island property today. Garth, you told me to be careful, and that this might be the last offer I receive in a long time. Your words have been wind-chimes in my thought-process as I try to hear from the angels in real estate fool-heaven for their guidance in my response. But I hear them not, for the angels do not cometh and so here I am, back to this wonderful blog for your celestial (haha) guidance!
I GOT AN OFFER!
I placed the asking price at $525,000. Just got the property assessment in the mail and it was $545,000. I know that’s neither here nor there. Buyers don’t know the Property Assessment yet. They offered $470,000.
Most places (rural acreages) have been selling lower than asking price. For comparable properties on average anywhere from $10,000 to $60,000 less than asking price. Most asking price were way too high. Keep in mind I lowballed my asking price. Some places are moving, and I don’t want to lose this offer.
Losing sleep and looking forward to moving. So love to hear back from you all.
So what do you and all you posters here on this blog think? I’m meeting with my realtor tomorrow morning and I could use some help.
Congratulations! The buyers probably expect a sign-back, so a counter at 500K is reasonable. If they walk, then it was probably not a serious offer. Equally important are conditions, closing and deposit. Are they what you want? — Garth
doc: With regard to the Kelowna condo market – by my calculation that represents a 45% drop before figuring real estate fees if he were selling now, but he can’t because he would have to come up with a huge payment to the bank as he is underwater about 140K.
Devil’s Advocate: I never said condos are down 15%. I said prices of the general market are down 15% from the peak. Condos are absolutely down more than that
tipping point
Re. #150 Truth Hammer, what was that you said about brainless, Garth?
#141 Louise
Weezie, Weezie…Whoa there a minute. I too think W’s posts are mainly useless. But to attack the size of his penis is a …um…”low blow” indeed. Poor W can’t help if his wee wee is so wee wee.This blog site may get a bit twisted sometimes,what with Garth’s frequent mention of “Amazons” and such,but attacking W’s organ because it’s so little is a no-no (Now me,I have just the opposite problem…but that’s a another subject for another blog site….). By all means defend Saskatchewan (bless you!), attack W’s politics if you want but keep your hands off his “thing”. He can only do so much with so little.
Okay,boys. Knock it off. — Garth
#121 ottawa pete
Alright, alright, there are software engineers now. Sorry I don’t keep with the latest engineering developments, maybe when the certifications number in the thousands I’ll take notice. Do they have rings? Apprentices? Training? It’s just a title as far as I can see. I’ve seen software “engineering” in action, hardly a thorough and disciplined process one would expect from engineers.
Regardless, the subject in question was entry-level compensation, and software is just not as lucrative as O&G-related disciplines. Far too much competition from India, Eastern Europe and China, and the work, so trivially outsourced. I know experienced and skilled people can be well paid, you’re telling me nothing new.
Westernman is a prime example of how bitter you become once you are underwater on your mortgage.
Hey Junius, thx for the tip on Freedmans. Will be there tomorrow. We too were wondering if it was our imagination, or if more shops were sitting empty for longer.
Have you heard the Langley developers add were you get a free car with the purchase of a townhome?!! Crazy!
To continue my observations on Vancouver West Side. Last summer I wrote about the “for sale” signs blowing in the wind and how I use them to tell how the weather is going to be … If the wind comes from the West, it’s fair weather while if it blows from the East it means a storm is coming. My favorite weather vane sign was replaced mid-fall after a wind storm blew it right around on itself and the place was re-listed under a different Realtor. The new sign was firmly planted in the ground and has stayed there ever since. Tonight driving by, I noticed yet another realtor’s sign next to it … that’s three realtors in 7 months and the place has still not sold. Other houses I drive by have also changed their realtors several times since summer, and I notice that a new trend is to put up oversize, splashy billboards on SFH lawns with a Rock Star picture of the realtor,”Mike” in this particular case. I have seen others. “Mike’s” eyesore of a sign has been sitting there on MacDonald St for several months now advertising loudly how it has not sold. Its obvious from living here that the Real Estate “thing” is finally winding down in Vancouver.
What is the deal with this blog? It used to have so many intelligent posters and now its just the same long-winded regulars ignoring the topics and broadcasting their agendas over and over and over. Its boring.
I have turned on a lot of people to this blog, so I hope the quality of the discussion improves. Keep up the great posts, Garth.
All of you right wingers who are union bashing are a joke! The old saying is, “first they came for the trade unions, etc” .
If you’d like something to take to the bank it’s this: your “capitalist paradise” cannot sustain without a strong middle income sector to purchase your goods. Break the unions and labor, destroy the middle class in a futile race to the bottom.
We’re from the US and can tell you your wealth is built on selling goods to a middle income sector built on “the liberal values” like, I don’t know, not letting people work for $1 a day (as they do in some countries) and not letting people die in the street from no healthcare.
They are working on transforming the US into a third world nation – and Canada is next, so enjoy your trip to “capitalist paradise” free of that pesky “liberal ideology.”
Hey Marco… I can spell L-I-Q-I-D? You can????
Louise,
I’m not shorting Sask. at all – I’m calling it a complete pile of crap…plain and simple… and my sympathies to your husband.
Not 1st – own my house outright – have for years. Paid cash for it by the way. Sorry, you strike out again, boy…
RE: #152ab on 01.07.12 at 11:00 pm
7% of the population of Metro Vancouver TODAY are not Canadians ( Citizens or Permanent Residents)! These 7%, they need a roof over their heads.
They are foreign temporary workers (FTW)/students (FTS) who push down vacancy rates. This feeds the speculators who rent out condos and suites to the FTW and FTS.
FTW rarely buy and rent in groups. FTS; some buy and others rent in groups.
Nevertheless, 140,000 Temp residents in Metro Vancouver today!!…and growing. You thing they are ever going to leave when their permits expire?? especially when Canada does not record exits??
This is the fuel for the bubble that Garth does not want to acknowledge for some reason.
Sure… Low interest rates, CMHC, Land use restrictions add to the effect…but imagine if 140,000 people dissapeared out of Vancouver today??
From the old Agent Will Vancouver Stats (Excludes some of the outlying areas including Whistler)
For the end of Week 1 in January
Lists are 837 compared to 704. Increase of 19%
Sales are 192 compared to 252. Decrease of 24%.
The number of Richmond listings actually reached over 110 by the end of Friday. It’s like a floodgate has opened. Van-West had over 60 which is a slower listing pace than last year but the sales have virtually stopped. 7 units year-to-date. This pace will increase but if only 50 sell this month, this is another month with close to 50% decrease in volume compared to last year. Party is over now. We’ll see how all the developers do in the end who have bought / tore-down / built for spec and now are trying to sell.
I’m noticing an interesting change with posts of late. Less useful information to all readers, and more one-on-one attacks. Kind of “Lord of the Flies”.
#150 truth hammer:
QUOTE:
Taiwan has introduced a 15% capital gains tax on short term real estate transactions. Will Canada do the same? We have a habit of picking up trends from other parts of the world.
=====================================
O.F. F*cks sakes…..
W-H-E-N are people going to realize the double dip of these vampire squid?
It was Gov’t policy that loosened Real Estate restrictions/Immigration………… and the aforementioned ……………..as well as the loose domestic lending policies (ie 35/0).
I never gave them permission (aka consent) to basically encourage the casino of RE and an irresponsible economic policy backed by CMHC.
Most civil servants are leaches….time to pry these remoras off our collective asses and have them share in the rotten fruit of their labour.
140 DA, Excellent response on value of independent thought & development of creative infrastructure that university education can provide but expect to catch some flak from lurking, boozing, hooker craving, Pink Floyd lovin’ Smokin’ Man for understanding the value of education. If you think education is expensive try ignorance – Ben Franklin said it best. I think that you are probably underestimating your work and life skills being a realtor but that’s another discussion over Crown or Glenfiddich. You did, however, forget your team’s participation in the a) developer b) real estate c) banking d) media and e) CMHC cheerleading section. As this contemptibly inadequate, pitiable, degenerate and Viagra free basing blog is one of the only other “points of view” or “rational” views on real estate without a real financial bias, I find it strange that you are here representing the real estate “devil’s advocate” POV when their voice is all over MSM (and you, again, know that). Conjures images of some Communist party monitoring those ugly Democratic protestors activity on the Internet and pushing their obviously “underrepresented” opinion there as well. Disclaimer here that Garth meddles in real estate but is mostly sold out with Amazons and Harley riding in 9C near Amazon infested GTA near Godless Toronto.
I don’t understand your references to not having the time or desire to respond to those who you generously respond to when you probably spend more time than Garth himself wordsmithing your cornucopia of linguistic delights. My guess is you really secretly love this hungover, flaccid, ornary old blog and it engages your intellect not achieved in real estate negotiation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyrzyd5Rq1Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMOh-kyDhis
OnlyTheBankersLaugh.
#109 Dr. Fred on 01.07.12 at 3:49 pm
If one reads reader posts today compared to years past, they’ll notice that it’s still the same. No news is no news.
Well in the words of the great bard Robert Downey Jr. in the lurid tale Natural Born Killers (1994)
“repetition works David, repetition works David…”
In my dealings with the general public I have found that things must be repeated a minimum of 3 times to people who are deeply concerned and thus motivated listeners and 5 or more times to most other attentive listeners and a host of times to a great majority of people. This is why it is best not to lie in sales as an undesirable truth artfully spoken once has little impact.
50% down by the time it’s all over. Not a penny less.
Watch.
#150 truth hammer…
repetition works David, repetition works David…
Our country has been lead into a massive housing bubble by the conservatives that have been lead throughout this time by an economist
As this point is repeated over and over in the run up to the next election it will be like rubbing salt into the gaping wound that will be our economy with each passing day piling more negative sentiment upon the conservatives. 2 decades of Liberal rule wait just past the horizon. Mr Mulroney will look like a really nice guy (he probably is) relative to Mr Harper once the fallout of this housing bubble (instigated by an economist thus a person who should know better) becomes painfully evident.
Prime Minister Harper took up post-secondary studies at the University of Calgary, where he completed a bachelor’s degree in economics. He later returned there to earn a master’s degree in economics, completed in 1993.
repetition works David, repetition works David…
Aussie Update
More bleak times ahead for housing
http://theage.domain.com.au/more-bleak-times-ahead-for-housing-20120107-1ppiy.html
Millions slashed off Adelaide house prices
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/real-estate/millions-slashed-off-adelaide-house-prices/story-e6frefdc-1226238559882
It’s the MEGA mortgages stupid
WORKING families are keeping their kids home from school camps and struggling to pay for uniforms and books as the cost of living continues to rise.
Anglicare SA financial wellbeing manager Christine Bell said it was no longer just unemployed people asking for help – working parents were also struggling to make ends meet.
http://www.news.com.au/top-stories/charities-swamped-as-families-stuggle-to-pay-bills/story-e6frfkp9-1226239017723#ixzz1iqPq6wuT
Add South Africa to (the global) housing delusion list
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/07/add-south-africa-to-housing-vctims-list.html
Chinese RE doing just fine
China faces social unrest from housing woes
But Beijing likely to keep a lid on serious opposition
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-faces-social-unrest-from-housing-woes-2012-01-05
The Vancouver bubble is cooked, but look on the bright side. When the mess clears in about 10 years, costs may be low enough to have an actual industry in the area aside from loading stuff produced elsewhere and building leaky condos. Creative destruction is inevitable, just don’t be silly and buy in during the fall and get caught in the bear trap.
#137 jess
Perhaps the worst thing about this: No salary: No pension contributions.
No means of maintaining payouts to retirees.
Sorry…wrong comment headline.
#154 Herb – BCassessment
DA 140,
“Volumes, across all market segments, dropped 30% from peak to present”
According to your own numbers, 2011 volume was off by 40% from 2008, not 30%. Mendacity again.
“Correct for inflation..do we really need to nit-pick so much?”
Inflation is a ‘nit-pick’? Are you for real? The 2008 peak value of 474k is 503k in 2011 dollars. A drop of 28k or 6% from inflation alone. What percentage of a 30 year am do you pay off in the first 5 years? If I offered 6% below asking to one of your client would you tell them not to ‘nit-pick’ and accept my offer? If your investment portfolio dropped 6% how would you feel if your advisor shrugged it off as a ‘nit-pick’. I doubt any of the people whose interests you claim to represent would be so casual with 28k of their money.
“What people get for what they are paying? Seriously?”
Seriously yourself. Apparently I do have to explain it. Tell me smart guy, why is it that prices tend to rise and fall with interest rates? Could it possibly be that buyers, especially first time ones, tend to spend up to the limit they can borrow? So then should interest rates stay constant in the face of rising supply and declining demand, then the amount people are able to borrow and susequently pay, as reflected in the median and average price of sales, can remain relatively constant even while the supply/demand balance drives prices down. Does that scenario sound at all familiar? Think real hard.
“Median homes have not changed that much if at all.”
Yet again, prove it. Show me examples of specific houses or comparables that sold for for similar prices in 2009 and 2011. This is not the experience among my friends and family, but you have all the ‘real data’ so it should be a piece of cake to show otherwise.
“I am very discretionary with respect to how I use my time and arguing with you is not something on which I am willing to waste it”
Translation: I am getting pwned so I will take my ball and go home.
#126 Turner Nation – Please allow me to give you the movie style “slow clap” for that! Well said my friend.
I have good news and bad news – good news is our P.I.T.A Chinese neighbors have finally put their house on the market, not that I have anything against Chinese people, these ones are just batsh*t crazy! Bad news is they are at least $40K, more like $50K overpriced. I’m thinkin about offering them $120K under list.
Sometimes it’s not about the granite or SS appliances, its about the people you live next to.
#162 Westerman you are mildly amusing. For somebody to harbour such, dare I say, hatred for anything is extremely unhealthy. Get over it bud. You don’t like sask well guess what. I love it. I don’t live there anymore, been gone for over twenty five years but I still have very strong attachments to the place which is more than I can say for the rest of the world. Somebody obviously did you over there and ,contrary to the general opinion, if you really want to get screwed, well go to sask and act like an idiot. Somebody will gladly take you out..
Houses prices and fraud in Toronto:
House oddities in The Junction
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1111810–flipped-junction-homes-taken-on-a-wild-real-estate-ride-ending-in-fraud-allegations?bn=1
54thBPOE, give it up already. Don’t you see you’re not fooling anybody? Again, you completely missed the point of the heat map from a couple days ago. Sales have fallen off a cliff in BC, and its only going to get much worse from this point forward. Values will fall, and yet tax payers will be screwed because the map says differently.
ONEMORETHING: “Rent, make another sucker pay for the losses and repairs, taxes etc.”
******************************
Wouldn’t these expenses be factored into the rent being charged? So, in effect, the renter IS paying for a portion of property taxes and repairs.
OnlyTheBankersLaugh @ 168
Cheers };-)
JRoss @ 177:
My biggest failing as a teacher is my impatience with dawdling nitpickers who cannot seem to grasp the big picture for their narrow minds which best suits them for nothing more than to peer through a keyhole with both eyes. Yes they can see the depth of the subject through that keyhole through which others can only look with one eye but they miss everything else.
Another thought that comes to mind is that you will be so busy looking that gift horse in the mouth when it is finally presented to you that you are likely to miss the opportunity.
Open your mind up a little why don’t you. I will not debate that my numbers may be slightly inaccurate as I did not do the math to arrive at an exact result. I guestimated. So sue me. That does not negate that if I now did the math the results would support my contention far more than yours which was nothing more than argumentative.
As you spend way too much time looking for flaw you will surely find it just as you mixed up my median volume and price percentages. You will not listen to (or read as the case may be) my words without prejudice that takes you to something other than my intended meaning. You miss the point and thus a discussion with you is a futile endeavour. But let me try ;-)
Let’s go over this yet “again”: This is a return to norm, not a departure from it. Volumes are commensurate with those of pre-bubble levels, maybe a tad higher due and to be expected in consequence to the increased population .In addition generally the overall median price of real estate is down just “roughly” 15% from the peak at which it had more than doubled from that of before the bubble. The preceding has consistently been the case for the last 4 and 3 years. 4 and 3 years is a significant trend in any economic cycle and is certainly a better gauge of what is happening that any crystal ball gazing might “suggest” may or may not happen in the future. Clearly people are prepared to pay these current prices in significant numbers representative of what used to be considered a “normal” market. Yes the volumes pale compared to the peak volumes of the bubble but do we really want to go there again? Of course not! So… again this is a return to norm not a departure from it.
My father once paid a price for a property that everyone was astonished and thought him a fool. “You paid how much?” they would exclaim “And it wasn’t even waterfront?” they would puzzle. This was amid economic circumstances in 1981 which were not unlike these of today. I think you must know well where this story is leading…
On the other hand my wife and I often drive by a waterfront property we could have bought for a mere fraction of it’s current value and she points out our loss every time to which I respond “If we had bought it the story would not be a lot different. It would then simply be “We should not have sold it as prices had a lot further to rise””. Timing has a lot to do with the good outcome of a raindance.
Keep your eyes and mind open JRoss or you will miss a lot of what life has to offer you.
#85 DA
Are they trying to hide something?
http://kelownaforeclosurelist.ca/the-list/
Time for me to once again abstain from this “pathetic” blog for a time as I fast that I may cleans my mind of the negative which plagues so many here – their minds relegated to holding up (figuratively) in the fetal position in some cold, dark and dank cell corner somewhere fearing that welcoming warmth of the sun outside. Yes the sun is out now but soon it will once again be dark they warn so the refuse to venture into it so sure it will be taken away never to return again. That sun which casts but a single thin ray of narrow but intense light through their otherwise dark cell, across and onto the keyhole in the cell door to which only they hold the key. They scurry from time to time across the cell floor to peer through that keyhole that they may check what is happening on the other side – although it is really quite baffling why they don’t just stand up and take in the wider view offered through the four inch spacing between the bars of the cage rather than that narrow keyhole in the door. They do not realize only they have the key to that cell door of that cage in which they lock themselves. That key to their cell door dangling from a chain around their own neck that it gently taps the chest over their heart each time they slam their shoulder against the door to test its strength. With each shove a gentle tap, shove, tap, shove, tap as if the key were trying to gain their attention. But they ignore it. Do they lock themselves in or do they lock everything else out?
Be happy people… life is so much more fun when you are happy. You have the key really you do.
I will return… };-)
You leave more often than the tide. — Garth
Devore on 01.07.12 at 11:24 pm
“Alright, alright, there are software engineers now………….I’ve seen software “engineering” in action, hardly a thorough and disciplined process one would expect from engineers”
I have not been reading the PEO’s professional discipline cases all that closely in recent years, so have not noticed if “Computer Engineers” or “Software Engineers” are being regularly raked over the coals for misconduct or incompetence.
Truth be told, if my primary skill was with computer hardware or software, I would not be looking to register as a professional engineer.
The vast majority will never benefit from the license or the stamp…..how many will ever be asked to seal technical design documents for a computer system, or printed code for a software system? Maybe for nuclear or space, but maybe not even there….those sectors have their own regs and codes of practice.
So, my question is why would you want the letters with little to gain? Why open yourself up to more regulation, a strict code of ethics. Why willingly pay dues to a dinosaur organization that, IMHO, does a mediocre job regulating the profession in the interests of its members, and even in running its own operations?
Westernman
The defense rests? Your rebuttal was even more clueless than most of your posts on this blog.
Transfer payments …. like we have a choice in the matter …. the haves will continue to send funds to the have nots.
Perhaps someone should let those unfortunate companies that are spending billions extracting resources that they are wasting time and money when resources are in abundance everywhere.
As for the rest …. no comment.
Signing off from sunny Saskatoon.
#158 Jane,
I have not seen the car give-away in Langley but I did see it in Toronto at the new Shangri-la last fall. Quite a spectacle as they gave away a luxury car with every purchase.
We are going to see lots of things we haven’t seen before. My friends in the restaurant industry say they have never seen such a prolonged slump in activity. Fewer customers and lower sales per customer.
This is all anecdotal but I have heard it from many sources. However the number of both retailers and restaurants that have gone inder over the past six months must mean something.
#93 Westernman
westernman had a near “deliverance” experience , except his face was uglier that PIG’S A.S.S. so they let him go….It must hurt your feelings when a bunch of us banjo playing hillbillies do NOT find you “PURRTY” enough, hee, haw….
#164. Trt,
Congratulations! You have been my first prediction of 2012 that comes true.
I predicted that you would continue to post these inane arguments about immigration suporting the housing market while completely disregarding sll of the arguments refuting you. You are consistent. I give you that.
Maybe someday you will find the honesty and courage to address the previously posted arguments showing the Real Truth. Or is it just repeat, repeat and repeat without addressing the facts?
congratulations DA !
After 3 years of denial, you are finally admitting what we have been telling you all along You have made a magnificent attempt at unwinding your ‘twisted pretzel’ arguments, so we shall ignore the silly rantings from the past and welcome the ‘new and humble’ DA. Perhaps you will agree that it is not only the ‘greedy developers’ at fault, but also the many greedy realtors who bought multiple condo units with downpayments on thier credit cards ? Is it possible that easy credit terms courtesy of Flaherty’s mortgage rules may have played a part ?
Congratulations are also in order for the many other commenters on this site who have exposed the emptiness of both DA’s assertions, and westernman’s curious anger and spite. Facts and reason are winning out……..there is hope yet……….
#180 mortgages fraud in Toronto
Everyone in the industry knows housing market in Canada is a ponzi. The article is the tip of the iceberg.
Perhaps DA, it is not the supposed nitpickers that cannot grasp the big picture, but it is yourself who cannot.
Selling real estate, or anything for that matter, is about creating hype so people want to buy. Nothing more.
Sales are way down here in Victoria, really down. With only 329 sales in December and 1100 realtors I would suggest that is a disaster. I suspect many didn’t get a paycheck. And you call that a return to the norm.
I like that, sort of has a cyclical undercurrent to it… and I do like cycles and the undercurrent… well I won’t get into all the boating metaphors seeing as you loath so that imprudent investment which provides no more return than enjoyment. };-)
Ah can’t help myself. Did you know, with a little skill, you can boat, float actually, down the west coast of British Columbia without wind or power as you use the tide to take you exactly to your destination. It’ll take you a while but with patience, as in so many things, you will reach your precise destination. Try it sometime. Working with the current instead of against it is truly a liberating experience. Trust the current it will take you past the rocks to where it is deepest and fastest. Dodd Narrows and others appear foreboding torrents of raging waters that should be avoided at all times but slack tide to most. But slack tide will take you nowhere. The difference in water level between basins can at times well exceed 10 feet – high and low. You must see the metaphors there? };-).
Catch ya later. Have fun. Really… have fun all – enjoy… for it not why else continue on.
If I were to take on another moniker I think “The Tide” is what is should be.
Now I really must go… out like the tide. But like the tide… you know I will come back. };-)
DA,
Can I get that foreclosure list from somewhere else? I would really like to see it.
If there is one Economist in the world who is worth resding on the causes of the housing bubble and our current credit crisis it is Australian Professor Steve Keen. He predicted the credit crisis and has been spot on in his analysis for years. AussiemRoy frequently cites him as well as Keen is sort of Gart Turner like downunder and has drawn the ire of the Re biz.
His latest post could just as easily apply to Canada. While there are differences the simularities regarding mortgage and household debt are obvious.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/01/07/australian-house-prices-again/
Man, this is great…. my comments on the poo-poo heap that is Sask. really bring out the 65 I.Q. Sask. residents ( generational inbreeding does that to a population after a while ).
The vitriol that is posted about my dead-on assesment of Sask. indicates that I am right on the money about the place – I especially enjoy the amatuer pyshcologists that have taken a couple of courses at the junior college and are now Sigmund Freud wannabes…
Sorry to disappoint ya’ll but no one has gotten the better of me in Sask. or anywhere else for that matter… not for long anyway. My comments on Sask. come entirely from simply stating the bloody obvious – the place is a landfill, a frozen landfill populated by low-I.Q. inbred gremlins who defend the place like Pavlov’s dogs salivated at the sound of a bell ringing.
It’s as simple as that – now run along kids, you’ll be late for beginning pysch 101 at the local tool shed turned college…
#198 Westernmoron,
with the acumen you keep on displaying here, how would you even know if someone had gotten the better of you?
Westernman , try ” Pen Gro “. It seems to be very popular out West. Hope it helps !!! Thank me later !!
Hi #35GTA Girl, re: and can tie knots like a good sailor….
Might you know any hitches and bends too?
Do you know that the international cordage institute does not consider rope is rope unless it is at least 1.5″ in Diameter. Under 1.5″ it is catagorized as string.
FYI, I buy my webbing and hard wear mostly at MEC.
My ropes/string (low stretch) write from the manufacture Cancord Inc., Hamilton http://www.cancord.com/
I also understand DuPont will make Nylon66 fibers up to 27km long. If you ever need a piece of string/rope to be made that long. (I guess if you have lots & lots of friend that you’d like to tie up with just one piece? Be careful you don’t accedentally hang yourself!)
Question.
Might you be one of the amazing Amazon women with ropes(strings) that I know from the GTA that does “it”, on rope, in the mud, in the dark, sometimes getting very very wet, does original geographic exploration sometimes, sometimes just likes to hang out; Taking nothing but pictures, Killing nothing but time and Leave no trace/marks?
” RE: #152ab on 01.07.12 at 11:00 pm
“Congratulations! The buyers probably expect a sign-back, so a counter at 500K is reasonable. If they walk, then it was probably not a serious offer. Equally important are conditions, closing and deposit. Are they what you want?” — Garth</blockquote
I am impressed. Ditto what Garth said"
Thank you Garth and Devil's Advocate! Realtor is arriving soon. Now in fact. I'll keep you updated.
ab
Connected slumlords or “strip miners”
The folks who exposed the actual slumlord network, used in the above example, have a step-by-step lesson on how they did it. Let the Sun shine in!
http://www.orgnet.com/slumlords.html
January 07, 2012
Uncloaking a slum landlord conspiracy with social network analysis
…”buildings appreciated in value during a real estate boom — loans from the mortgage company allowed the owners to “strip mine” the equity from the buildings. This is a common slumlord modus operandi — they suck money out of a building rather than put money back in for maintenance.
…The city attorney combined the network analysis, along with the city’s own extensive investigation and was able to get a conviction of key family members. Later, all of one building’s tenants filed a civil suit using much of the same evidence and won a sufficient award to allow all of them to move out into decent housing. Several tenants used a part of their award to start businesses.”
“You leave more often than the tide. — Garth”
And the tide brings in lots of detritus,
flotsam…
#187 Marshy on 01.08.12 at 11:53 am
Good old transfer payments.
Saskatchewan will never pay enough to make up for the payments received in the past.
You enjoyed it then, enjoy it now.
#198 westernman
Saskatchewan is bordered on the west by Alberta and the east by Manitoba. no discernable difference…….does your irrational hatred extend to these provinces as well ?, or is geography another challenge you struggle with ?
Earlier I mentioned EI is like an Enron or AIG insurance scam, and due to the Con’s recent mis-management it is being exposed.
Found this in my inbox today:
http://www.torontostandard.com/the-sprawl/is-employment-insurance-failing/
In 2009 53% of all calls made to the Employment Insurance call centre were answered within three minutes. By 2011 it was 32%. And little wonder: the system is overwhelmed. The number of Canadians receiving EI remained static between 2006 and 2008 at an average of 748,000 people (most because of day-to-day job loss or because they were taking a parental leave). But in 2008-09, when the recession really got going, the number of Canadians collecting EI jumped by over 300,000.
…
“For the first time Newfoundland and Saskatchewan are “have” provinces and population-dense, job-poor Ontario is the only “have-not” province. And that imbalance is built into the system. Workers in Ontario and Newfoundland see a significant difference in the ratio of payout made to the benefits received. One recent study found that Newfoundland and Labrador EI recipients receive $5 in benefits for every $1 they put into the system while working. Ontarians, in contrast, receive $0.60 for every $1 they contribute.
In real terms the differences are startling. Take this example from The Globe and Mail: “An administrative assistant laid off in Corner Brook, Nfld., who worked as little as 10 weeks will pocket $468 a week for 45 weeks – the maximum – for a total of about $21,000. A comparable worker in Saskatoon would have to have put in about 18 weeks and could earn benefits for only 36 weeks, or a total of $16,848. Someone doing two jobs who loses one of them is likely to get nothing.””
DA,
Several hundred words and no substance. I take that as a concession. In my experience, those who’s only resort is to appeal to the open mind of another are those who are most dogmatically closed to changing their own. My advice to you is the same as it was last time you ‘left’. Time to look inward.
“you know I will come back”
So does athlete’s foot.
Westernman,
“like Pavlov’s dogs salivated at the sound of a ringing bell”… now who is the amateur pyshcologist, or did you mean psychologist?
Form Man,
Congratulations on your outstanding grasp of geography! In reply… Manitoba is worse ( hard to believe but true ) Alberta is slighty better ( not much to brag about but slightly better ).
Louise,
I’ll bet your husband comitted suicide, didn’t he? I would if I was hitched to you….
Herbie,
Trust me Herbie, I know how to keep score…
This barrage of idiotic adolescence is over. — Garth
# 180 Houses prices and fraud in Toronto:
House oddities in The Junction
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1111810–flipped-junction-homes-taken-on-a-wild-real-estate-ride-ending-in-fraud-allegations?bn=1
——————————————————————
This is how Canada’s housing bubble went up. It is all fraud. Anyone buying today for today’s prices is STUPID! GTA houses were bid up by fraud. When a house sells for an inflated prices through fraud then everyone else on the block thinks “my house is worth more” when it was all fraud. GTA housing needs to crash 50% to come back to reality. The bubble is so obvious for all to see with facts and numbers. The average home should not cost more then 3-3.5 times income. The average home in Canada should be slightly more or less then the average home in the US. The average home cost TWO TIMES MORE then the average US home. The paid shill media should be all over this telling the masses the obvious truth. The media with realtors ,bankers , mortgage brokers continue to lie and mislead the public. With jobs going back to the US since US workers can work for 50% less and maintain the same lifestyle in Canada. Canadian workers can not compete with US wages now. The crash is now going to happen as you read of US companies locking out Canadian workers. Expect this to continue……CRASH!
Is this site for real?
http://www.foreclosuresearch.ca/listings.php?final=
Sobering if you live in Alberta.
Foreclosures
BC 3155
AB 7715
SK 210
MB 149
ON 1311
Eaglebay, Ecuador’s socialist dictator raping foreign mining companoes…too funny, haha…
PREFERRED SHARES
We interrupt the entertaining but mostly mindless debate among the blog dawgs here about the future of house prices to provide information that most of you (who have no intention of buying or selling a house anytime soon) can actually use to make money starting tomorrow.
Preferred shares are often mentioned on this blog.
A group of individual preferred shares might be best.
But for those interested in an exchange traded fund ETF of preferred shares the one I looked at is:
Claymore Canadian Preferred Share Index
Symbol: CPD (Toronto Stock Exchange)
Management Expense Ratio: 0.50%
Weighted average yield on the index: 5.0%
Yield of CPD: 4.8%
Number of preferred shares in the ETF: 150
Major Risks: Will decline in price if interest rates rise. Could decline in price if the actual dividends decline but that is unlikley.
Trading Liquidity: More than enough for your small order!
More information about CPD:
http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/etf/fund/cpd
and about the index it follows:
http://www.tmxmoney.com/HttpController?GetPage=EquityIndices&Language=en&Exchange=T&SelectedTab=QuoteResults&IndexID=TXPR&OpenIndex=
Alternative Approach: If the AVERAGE yield of the 150 pref. shares in this index is 5.0%, then many are above that and many are below. You could look to select several of the higher yielding preferred shares. Be cautious of any that seem too good to be true. 6% or so might be easily attainable. You may have to look up the individual yields on a service like Globe investor, or perhaps someone can post a list of individual preferred shares and their yields.
The last thing that wrecked Vancouver for the middle class was the free market….it’s all of the meddling by policy makers.
Da leaving us once again ? getting some shifts ? right on man!
At #97 investing Chinese cash in Denmark first . It’s a no brainer .. One of the crown princesses is a Lady of Chinese decent from Hong Kong . Too bad jack Layton didn’t win . What we got has left a bad taste in the mouth of the whole world (booted off the security council for the first time in the history of the UN ). A right wing ,war mongering ,enviromental case .$200+ oil will benefit all his friends so saber rattling is just what they need . Maybe he can get his friends to nuke middle east oil ala J.R Ewing plot of tv show Dallas.
People that are trying to unload Leased land condos, on False Creek, are in trouble. Same with properties on Musquem land.
Never seen so many quiet people at the Christmas parties we attended.
I was also shocked at four long term Vancouverites who have applied for jobs in Alberta, Ontario and Sask.
HAM? None of my Chinese friends see any value and the idiots in Richmond knocking down dumps and putting up these horror shows made of pressboard and crap trim.
There is much pain ahead – I was in Vancouver when interest rates spiked and home values cratered here. The quality of life in this damp City, is going down the drain.
Mr. Turner has been basically doing everything but send in the Amazons, to try to save people from themselves.
#214 Investors Friend – I wouldn’t go for the CPD, the MER is too high for the paltry yield, and unless you’re absolutely desperate for income with no risk, my opinion is it would be better to pick one or two Insurance / Telecom pref shares with the same or better yield and no MER. Great West Life, BCE, etc… for this coming year at least… after that I don’t know yet obviously…
Inventory stats on the Vancouver Market
OVerall, starting the year much over last year – however – almost all of this is concentrated in 4 areas.
1.) Richmond Detached – up close to 100% over last year – Epicenter of the crash.
2.) Vancouver West Detached – up 70%. Not too far behind.
3.) Richmond Attached and Apartments – Up 25%. This is also a major problem area with close to 1,000 units for sale already at this early start to the year. This is pretty much 10 months of inventory and we have not even seen the listings flood yet.
4.) Coquitlam attached and apartments – up 20%.
Other than these areas, inventory is at a normal opening level. There are no other detached areas which are really significantly changed and are down 0-5%.
The big chunk of the market which is Vancouver attached and apartments is pretty much starting even with last year – – showing that government policy of low interest rates and easy credit access to the banks has continued to fuel the number of first time buyers coming into the condo market. Kids are so uninformed and I feel sorry for this generation that may never see their property be worth more than what it is today and is likely to fall. Ask any kid who bought their downtown box in the past 2-3 years how they’re doing on their fantastic Equity Building exercise. Wished they were still renters . . . Most of my friends in that position do.
Happy new year to all.
#96 Not 1st.
Hate Westernman all you want but he’s right. It’s nice where you live but nobody cares.