Antonio is 39, two kids, lives in a little bung he bought 13 years ago. “I’m a self-made man,” he tells me, “nobody knows my situation, and I like it that way.” The house in the 905 is worth about $450,000 now, he figures. Too damn small. “We need a house on physical grounds, four sardines in 1200 feet.”
Here’s the wrinkle. Tony’s rich.
“I’ve got 1.5 mill cash invested, and a house worth 450. I don’t have a penny in debt not cars or credit cards, nothing. I made my money with a small thriving consulting business and through investing in equities.”
So with $2,000,000 in net worth, three-quarters of it liquid, Antonio occupies the top of the Canadian pyramid. This is called ‘high net worth” in the financial business, or simply HNW. To join the club (there are 282,000 members), you need to have investible assets of $1 million – that’s money not locked up in real estate. Real wealth. Liquid.
About 2% of Canadian households are HNW. Those with two million to invest are twice as rare – that 1% you heard so much about when the rabble invaded Wall Street.
But Tony ain’t buying it.
“Please don’t tell me I have too much money and therefore should stop whining while you help those that “need” it. I achieved what I did through real hard work and sacrifice and while doing the exact opposite of most others while being ridiculed and treated like I was poor and stupid.”
See what living in a 1,200-square-foot bungalow does to you in this society? Everybody knows the really successful people are home diddling their Jenn-Airs and gassing their Navigators.
So why is Antonio writing to this miserable blog, home to countless basement-dwelling nihilists so starved for human affection they come here for the pictures?
“I refuse to make a monumental error and will continue to be patient as long as needed. There is a listing in the hood we want, that has sat for months. Waaaaaaaay too much at $1.4 million. Too much even if it were 800k. I would choke.
“Will this type of overpriced piece of crap ever come back to earth? Any and all advice appreciated on this house, housing generally? Happy new year and thanks for your work.”
Well, Tony, why you’d want that house clears up one issue. You have no taste. But it’s an okay area. On a clear day you can see over to the Bridle Path, near where Sherry Cooper, the people’s economist, has her $3 million home for sale. So the odds of this property falling from $1.389 million to $800,000 are on par with F calling me tonight for budget advice.
I’ve spelled it out before: while the entire country teeters on the brink of a significant real estate correction (taking prices down about 15% on average by the time the first phase is done), housing is a local thing. Some places will be squished, including those already moving in that direction (Kelowna, Victoria, SW Ontario). Some will collapse, revive, decline, plateau and then slowly melt, like Vancouver. Some will be unaffected (Fredericton, Timmins. Smithers and other places nobody actually meant to move to). Others will see asking prices fall maybe 10%, because they’re always in demand (like this one)
The key, Tony, is to think like a carrion-sucking bird of prey. That means culling out the sick, suffering and ancient members of the MLS herd, then screeching down at the most vulnerable moment to pluck their organs out. In a less technical sense, make a damn offer. Stop watching a listing that’s been sitting for months, waiting for a price reduction. Create your own price cut. Man up with a piece of paper spelling out what you think the place is worth and await the reaction.
Will you get rejected for lowballing? Of course. But you’ll also be planting a seed of doubt in the languishing vendor’s mind as to what the real estate is really worth. In the absence of someone else coming along and offering list price, you’ll certainly be speeding along the repricing process. And when the reduction does go through, swoop again.
Keep the offer clean, no conditions (save for a home inspection done at your expense). Give them exactly the closing day they want. Cough up a fat wad of cash for the deposit. Offer to help them move. Take beer. Give them all kinds of reasons to want to accept your offer other than money. Then you’re finally in a strong negotiating position. You can bargain down the value. And, Tony, single-handedly you will have started the correction right in the 416 heartland. A true little millionaire Trojan horse.
So stop snivelling, bleating for advice or whining about buying. Dive in.
And say hi to Sherry. Ask if she remembers suing me. She’ll love having you close by.
187 comments ↓
First!!! OH Yeah BABY!!!!!
That is one ugly place on “millionaire’s row” over there on the Bridle Path… I guess it qualifies as getting the cheapest house on the street?
Second!!! Oh Yeah!!!
Why do they always show fat chicks jump up and down after somebody scores in hockey?
Good one Tony. That piece of garbage is not worth $1.4M
Third!!! Oh Oh Oh YEAH BABY!!!!!
REITs beat the pants off of basically all other asset classes in 2011 (only Real Return Bonds are even close):
http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/asset-class-returns-for-2011/
Time to take some profits and re-balance?
Holy Shit, this could become a tsunami of downward prices, the whole market could come apart, from Victoria to Whistler to the valley and into the West Side paradise.
I seriously think we could see shit totally fall apart in a matter of MONTHS!!!!!!
Everyone “KNOWS” what this is, so as this starts to sweep through the streets the wheels could come blowing off!
Bring it ON baby!
Victoria is getting absolutely whacked. It’s like the Soprano’s have taken over and are now whacking everything in sight.
What gives?
Ha, ha, ha, so accurate about the herd mentallity posting here.
Good advice Garth. I’ve been doing this for the past year – offering 20% below list value for homes I think are worth the offer. I haven’t had a bite but it is a satisfying experiance. Some won’t even reply (via email), some Realtors are shocked (love it) and some homeowners just say no. What do you have to loose?
Hope the dog doesn’t fart.
Living in Nova Scotia in the Annapolis Valley area (30 Minutes from the Greenwood Base) the prices have increased in the past 3 years….Even the old fallen down houses that would require thousands of after tax dollars to get up to living conditions with the faux granite laminate counters, making it an insane false value of the house….No way could one ever recoup their money……….I am not understanding where their logic is of these owners but even more…not understanding those you are the fools who buy them……….
Congrats Tony! I aspire to be in your position!
Dude, you have leverage! You already own a decent home. You have millions of dollars. You are in no rush to move or commit.
Garth has a valid point that a good neighborhood like that will retain it’s value better. But I understand and respect your concerns.
Years ago I read about ‘The Millionaire Next Door”. The millionaire that drives the 18 year old car. Wears clothes from Value Village and lives decently well, but you’d never know that they’re a millionaire.
They don’t wear $180 designer jeans, or drive the BMW X5. They know that true wealth is investments and that true comfort is no debt. When they get comfy and older, they might buy the Benzo or the Jag, or they just don’t care and keep driving the Dodge Caravan.
Congratz again to your success!
Maybe Tony needs to just build a new wing to his man castle???
The problem with this HNW malarkey as it pertains to the inflation riches of the average Canadian is that it is not the ‘millionaire next door of the 1960’s’……these so called millionaires are far from ‘millionaires’ in the traditional sense….thats all smoke and mirrors disguising the reality of the situation.
http://www.vancouversun.com/High+costs+taxes+death+good+fashioned+diner/5947725/story.html
The fact is that inflation has been roaring along and inflating the ‘value’ everything far faster than wages have caught up. In the above story you do the quick math and see that inflation in food prices just over the past five years is 600% higher than the government admits to. Ditto with your house prices ….costs have spiralled up…..20 & p/a…..but thats is less than the 29% in new paper the government is spitting out every year.
If I’m a millionaire…then why does my ‘million’ only buy me a sixth of what the same amount bout me 5 years ago? Its Zimbabwe folks……what next…billion dollar houses? Smoke and mirros gang….your hous ain’t orth a million….neither are you…….not when you can’t afford $17 potatoes and ten dollar banana’s.
Meanwhile taxes are screaming up…everything here in BC has been jacked up…every year…..prop taxes…20% for the past five years running in Richmond…school, fire , police, garbage, fee’s, licenses, parking.
You’re being misled into thinking you’re a millionaire…..but when was the last time you had any money spend that wasn’t plastic? The average load of consumer debt proves that the government is full of it……people can’t afford to live and pay taxes at the same time so they borrow against the ‘million dollar’ house….Bwahahahahahahahaha what a scam…I’m surprised more people aren’t on to this and keep bragging about their ‘house price’ instead……dummies !!
That is one ugly house, I’d offer 200K.
I’ve had my place on the market since August. Took a 2 long years to convince hubby to sell. Priced lower than comparable properties in the area on Vancouver Island. Will be getting an offer this weekend, realtor tells me. If we get our asking price (we’ve done improvements since they’ve seen it), how low should we go? We’ll walk away with about 55 grand with asking price, after fees etc.. We have some debt we’d like to pay off with some of the proceeds.
Also, don’t want to be stupid and lose the sale, as I fear a big correction. We’re rural, not Victoria.
Could be the last offer you see in a long time. Be careful. — Garth
Here is a fun video about personal debt. Why not just raise your limit?
http://youtu.be/Li0no7O9zmE
HNY!
Weather that property is worth 1.4 mil is not up to anyone to judge but rather dictated by the market. Waiting for prices to drop is like waiting for gas prices to go back to under a dollar a liter. If prices do correct, the people who could not afford before will be jumping on board at light speeds.
This is Canada and we are different. Why is it that all big ticket items like cars and TV’s are so much more expensive here? Why can Rogers get away charging stupid rates for Internet and wireless communications? Why do people pay ridiculous prices to live in wannabe cities like Toronto?
Sherry, lets adopt the US dollar call, Cooper sued U?
Yes Sherry, the most idiot call of your entire econ life. Back in 2002ish Sherry wanted Canada to adopt the US dollar. Of course this was when the CDN dollar was at the very lowest point value wise compared to the US Buck ($0.62ish). Remember Sherry? That is why I never ever take u serious.
Imagine sitting there watching to see if that crappy listing falls every day. Probably watches his stocks all day long and watches BNN. Whats more amazing is having 75% of your net worth in a single asset class – equities. Thats just as stupid as having it all in a house. See what happens when the next correction comes. If its coming in real estate, its coming in equities too you can bet.
Antonio needs to take a look at what he can get for $800,000 in Vegas.
Finn Poschmann is really blunt in the article linked below.
The Fraser Institute is way too far on the right fringes for this moderate conservative, but Poschmann knows a lot about the Canadian Economy and this piece is well argued.
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/Bear+snarls+housing/5943189/story.html
I loved your post tonight Garth. I also think that the RE market is a local thing. I was arguing with some people today, and some of them don’t seem to understand that “RE statistics” cannot be applied equally to all regions, all provinces and all types of properties. I purchased a 5 appartments building last spring: $385,000, gross revenues of $41,000, easy to manage, in excellent condition, 20% down payment, positive cash flow of $1,000$/month. Believe it or not, someone even told me: “you will fail, the market will go down, you will regret it… “. I am crazy or what? I have a rental property that is being paid my tenants, it gives me a positive cashflow… and I plan to keep it for 25-35 years… RE is a local market!
I need a 50% decline in SW Ont rural properties to get the place I won’t….I’m SOL…
I know some folks like Tony who are ordinary people with money. You wouldn’t know that they are millionaires by the house that they live in, the car that they drive, nor the clothes that they wear. But that’s exactly how they got rich- living a penny pinching lifestyle. My in-laws are loaded and still to this day they refuse to eat out because it’s ‘expensive’.
It’s not how much you make, but how much you spend.
Antonio, a 1200 sq foot bungalo?
Gut it – top it up with a second story, and you’re at 2400 square feet.
All your own finishings!
Cheaper than the upgrade to a 1M listing !!
zomg!
HAM (Hot Anglo Money) will love this one – Victorian, near U of T, this just drips in peerage.
http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/gimme-shelter/2012/01/04/house-of-the-week-61-brunswick-avenue/
“House of the Week: $1.9 million for an immaculately restored Victorian near U of T
ADDRESS: 61 Brunswick Avenue
NEIGHBOURHOOD: University
AGENT: Kevin Alvarez, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage
PRICE: $1,869,000
THE PLACE: A 117-year-old bay-and-gable that’s Victorian on the outside, modern but comfortable on the inside.”
Thanks Garth.
I’ve been following your writing for a couple years. The sale will pay off ALL debt, and will provide us with cash as well. We both have good jobs and pension plans. We want to move and rent. School bus service was canceled out here too, and is another reason to sell.
So, yes, I will be very careful with the negotiations. These are locals and will likely not try to make too much of a lowball offer, if at all. We priced extremely reasonably. Even so, I was kinda surprised to hear we have an offer coming in, as so many places aren’t moving.
So, everyone, keep your fingers crossed for me. I been waiting a very long time to sell and give myself some real serenity.
Victoria is tanking alright. Lowest unit sales in 11 years and lowest SFH sales since 1990. That is brutal but no fear, the market is “balanced”. Surprising the article is off the front page and relegated to the business page. If this was price or sales explosion news it would be front page for 3 days.
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Home+sales+tumble+year/5944288/story.html?cid=megadrop_story
Awh, Garth, I must confess . . . I’m not a nice lady. I found your “vultch” lesson interesting – and laughed out loud when I saw your student’s Dream Home. And then you sit back and wait for the other vultures to do their number on the newby?
I live within one block of this house. It was listed at 749,000 in july 2009. Over priced for the street as it is busy. It does however, have the number one school for test scores in Toronto-Rippleton Public
With the Bank of Canada out with mortgage debt numbers for November 2011, I’m guessing there are a few beads of sweat on Flaherty’s brow.
Year over year mortgage debt grew by 7.7% in November 2011. This is up from 7.5% from a month earlier and up from 7.2% in November of 2010 and 7.2% in November of 2009. Total household debt sits at $1.589 trillion, comprising of mortgage debt at $1.103 trillion and consumer debt which comes in at $485 trillion. By about the middle of January, Canadian household debt will top $1.6 trillion.
Here is household mortgage debt http://tinyurl.com/6mmsq88
Here is total household debt http://tinyurl.com/7byxzjx
It should be noted that income gains have stalled at the end of 2011, so this increase of mortgage debt is even more precarious for 2011 compared to 2010 and 2009. It is why our household debt to income ratio is at 153% and climbing faster than it was over the last couple of years. Mortgage debt is the main reason why total household debt is still growing faster than incomes and GDP and that is why the household debt to GDP number is at 94%, which is past the sustainable threshold of 84%.
Will the market implode under the pressure of too much debt, or are more credit curbs in the pipeline?
Loved this blog for years, laughed and followed along as F and Harp have done everything they can to make you look like a knuckle headed doomer. But you’re having your day!
Caught you here in Calgary and thoroughly enjoyed the show. And to think, you’ve even been sued by Sherri Coop! Hail, Garth, you’re fighting the good fight and doing it with self-deprecation and laughter.
Keep up the great work. Stick it to ’em (and Sherri too!)
Great house Tony, modernism doesn’t register in simple minds hence the comments here.
Crown molding makes me bloated and farty.
Hey Garth,
I agree with what your saying 100%, but how about talking about a couple other city’s rather than just Vancouver and Toronto? Calgary? Edmonton? Regina? Winnipeg?
Sherry sued Garth? For what – I’m guessing alleged Libel of some type.
Unfortunately in Canada libel is presumed, and you are found liable.
It’s just another Colonial hold-over to keep us in our place. The elites shall not be criticised.
Oh well. Quid pro quo – she probably lost a bundle shorting the Loonie back then.
Tony, build a bedroom or two in the basement and stay put.
I grew up one of six kids in a 1350 square foot house and we had it much better than most people in town. Three bedrooms in the basement and we had lots of room. Keep doing what you been doing.
Having money gives you options. Spending too much on a house takes away options.
But I know where you are coming from. I lived the frugal lifestyle until about age 40. (Now 51) After 40, having accumulated some money it was time to live a little and the more money you have, the harder it is to say no to the kids.
So maybe buy a better house but be patient and don’t get carried away.
Looks like there is a lot of competition for boring and/or tear-down houses in the $1.4M range:
It only has 1.5 storeys, and hasn’t been renoed in decades, but it’s so old that you won’t notice!
Hey, for $1.5M, could ya reno more than just the kitchen???
Another place where the reno team gave up after the kitchen.
For $1.3M, couldn’t you replace the old white appliances when you renovated?
Shit is hitting the fan (and Junius) now.
Leads me to conclude that there WILL be a change in mortgage rules in a couple of months. Feds will want to make it look like their changes took the winds out of the sails, vs. just pure fundamentals finally starting to take hold.
Vancouver = 20% price drop for 2012. Avg SFH price will ROCKET below a million smackers in the coming months. And imagine, that’s just to start the ball rolling.
#31
749k in 2009 asking almost double in 2011.All is needed is a greater fool to buy it or for a bank via CMHC insurance to lend out the 95% of the inflated value. This is just one example of the pure speculation and ponzi schemes happening in real estate. Properties are sold and re sold at much higher prices enabling re financing and tax free capital gains for those at the right side of the trade. If this type of speculation and insider trading were happening in the stock market the authorities would stop it but not in real estate. But as Garth says it will not end well!
Well Garth, I did exactly as you say, but I still ended up feeling like I paid too much. We love the house though so I figure we’ll be happy until I have to sell for some reason, at which point I take a bath.
I even followed your offer advice to the letter. 1% home inspection was the only condition. So far we have spent $350 fixing the ice-maker in the sub-zero and $20 on a tub faucet that was letting too much water out when in shower mode. However I think the control system for the in-floor heating in the basement needs to be redesigned, it never shuts off, and I’ve got Poly-B plumbing which might come close to 1% to replace when the time comes. Which incidentally the home inspector mentioned but not with any alarm bells. Puckers. Buyer beware.
I thought I’d done everything right, found a nice house on an even nicer street, already relisted down over 30% from the original delusional list price, boomers on the way out to a condo desperate to sell so they could discharge the mortgage, listed under bank appraisal (which I now know is useless, go with the tax appraisal which is online), everything done nicely close to schools and transit blab la bla. And then I took another 10% off thinking they would just say no.
But that is when the trouble started. It’s hard not to counter offer with a little more meat when your wife is bawling her eyes out she thinks she is so close to being happy. So my 10% reduction turned into a 6% reduction with a tractor, and I felt like I had to close or look like a jerk to everybody including my wife.
The good news is that she is putting out like a trailer park prostitute, but she always did.
So thanks for nothing Garth, your advice is totally correct but completely useless. Once the girl starts crying the realtors are going to eat your lunch. For the rest of you actually trying to catch a down move, don’t take the wife shopping with you. Ever. For anything. She will always buy too small a TV, too small a stereo, too small of a truck but too big of a trailer, and too much house. Girls don’t get it. But at least mine puts out. And she was in agreement to go with the 8’ tub, so all is not lost. Gotta fit the Amazon security detail in if Garth ever does show up for a visit.
don’t listen to these nimrods Tony
I like it. Very “dwell” very “wallpaper”
Why stay in Toronto? For a third of that price he can have a mansion in a city like Barrie, with access to nice waterfront, cottage country, good schools etc.
#18 Stevenson,
You said, “This is Canada and we are different.” Classic bubble talk.
No we are not. Our realtors are just as delusional as their realtors.
I’ve been reading your blog for over a year, and I always look forward to your informative posts, great pics, and most of the comments. But will you explain why people feel the need to post “First”? It’s useless information and annoying. Two words for these folks: Who cares? What am I missing? Is there a prize for posting first, or do they just miss high school?
Antonio eh?
Most Eyetalianz we know have 2 houses by Grade 5
What a loser.
I don’t get this. You wanna buy something, go buy it. Or not. Make up your mind. Stop whining.
Just for the record Calgary RE prices have increased according to CREB stats. that I have put on my bulletin board. The average condo in July 2010 was $261,355. Today $274,510. The average sale price of a SFH in Calgary in July 2010 was $439,706. Today the price is $446,923. Back in 2010 I was convinced that Calgary would tank. So far not so.
Ask her if Canada should drop the CDN like a bad habit and use the the USD.
And as I’ve been saying, 40%+ correction in Vancouver, GUARANTEED MINIMUM. Poor 52ndBPOE has no idea how to handle it, so he just assumes that by claiming I am “wrong” that somehow it would make him right. Funny logic, or lack thereof, he uses. Well, I called the correction at this time (first quarter 2012) for BC to become “more pronounced and noticeable to the public.” It is now precisely just that. Just because 52ndBPOE may not like this fact, does not make it any less true. The market across all of BC is going to get slaughtered. Vancouver, however, is something completely different. Vancouver is going to get slaughtered, sausaged up in its own casing, bought, ate up, and shat out. It is going to be horrifically ugly. 52ndBPOE loves to talk about HAM. Would you like to know what has happened to Shanghai property values since October 2011 (yes, only 90 days ago). Values have C O L L A P S E D 20%. Government restrictions are largely responsible, but given the heightened restraint in wealth as shown on paper for many of these individuals, it is indeed going to adversely affect all of BC in the long run. 52ndBPOE, I hope it was fun while it lasted. By the way, you may want to consider getting some four-way stop lights in Vancouver to help along with the disgusting congestion in its urban core, instead of the cheap ass two way stop light/two way stop signs. LOL And you call that world class…. Laughable.
Hey Tony did you pay tax?
Wow @ Tony… and I thought I was doing well at 39 with my 800k of liquid funds and 1.4 mill net worth…. I’ll get over it.
Quite simply, in order to accumulate this money over the years we have lived a lifestyle that suggested to others we didn’t have much of it. No granite, no ski doo, no Bimmer. No kids doesn’t hurt either of course. Wife and I save 5k a month by spending far less than we make and have been doing this for many, many years now. For years, too much of our savings was nestled firmly in the orange guys shorts, but thanks to Garth, much of it now resides in a tasty mix of Etfs, REITS, CDN bank preferreds, etc…
I will admit to buying Vancouver Real Estate – in 2002… That mortgage was paid off in nine years. I have submitted this post as proof that not everyone in Vancouver is clueless….
Thanks Garth I’m sleep better tonight.
the differential between tax rates on RE activity and tax rates on other activities is higher in canada than US. i think this is an important factor in driving the canadian bubble to more extreme levels – debt/income after taxes, being the most relevant metric. i suspect the air will come out swiftly rather than gradually. once over the top, people will more easily recognize the situation they are in due to this being maybe the last major RE bubble to rollover.
RE#20 what is stupid is not having the bulk of your net worth in equities. Stocks always outperform bonds in the long run. Sure, have the bulk of you money in fixed income and term deposits and watch it erode yearly with inflation.
frozen trumpet: they mostly do it because it irritates people like you.
–
Good for Tony. Person with loadsa self discipline.
Better if he can low-ball and offer $650K, or what of offering to trade his home + $350K? If you don’t ask, you’ll never find out, but if all else fails, then #37 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) has it right. Stay put and do some renos.
“. . . F calling me tonight for budget advice.” — Don’t tempt fate! It’s not worth the hassle! F doesn’t even know he has to fudge a new set of numbers yet!
*
Bond. James Bond. Big tab on the bar bill; Insurers Catastrophe losses hit record; Oil 1 and Oil 2 Everything else is going up; Pink Floyd’s Money lyrics come to mind; Cracking The credit card code; US debt to GDP ratio is 100.3%.
Paranormal Eurotrash Bill Gross explains it better; Greece Dilbert and Wally would do a better job; Brussels Sprouts suck; Social wars; Toppling The financial system; Watch the Birdie! Bank earnings forecast; China, Gold and other stuff; FRB and Hypothecation Any difference? Global Govt. ponzi scheme; Mad Tin Foiler’s predictions (not mine); Broke and Hungry.
*
Iowa The truth; Iraq Started – ended with lies; Sitting on the dock of the bay (not really); Losing It The right to grow home-grown food in the US; Okiller’s license to kill citizens; Supplements “Will it be enough to rein in FDA’s outrageous power grab?” and NZ follows NAmerica’s lead. “Canada passed its C-36 bill shortly after ‘Dirty Harry’ completed his task here in the US . . .”; Lost City found under St. Louis.
The Mayans never predicted the end of the world, but their age is coming to a close, followed shortly by the Aztecs and Incas; Working Prisoners Not a bad idea; Older than Stonehenge H or F? Fukushima Still melting; Background Check on CNN, so it’s easier to ignore them; Straits of Hormuz Wot’s the plan? Fighting to save the family farm; Global Capitalists (neocons) using Jesus and Armageddon to form central govt. and bank; Obummer Well whaddaya know; Ron Paul’s win extinguished; Magma Sleepless in Oregon.
Go ahead, low ball this one:
http://www.findcalgary.ca/listing_detail-6760745.html
I’ll buy it when it goes down to 300.
This post was great, Garth. Thanks!
Disciple # 120,
“Brave New World indeed, but only for the 1%, eh?”
——————————
Garth’s sound advise:
“That means culling out the sick, suffering and ancient members of the MLS herd, then screeching down at the most vulnerable moment to pluck their organs out.”
——————————
OK, so Tony, the destroyer, financially, shreds Bob,
the vulnerable.
But what of Bob, having to sell his castle to Tony
for an offensively low price? Is this fair? does it matter?
Not at all, Tony’s got the buck’s and Bob does not.
After 20,000 years of domestication, we still compete
like animals.
Competition has insured our survival, but it’s come,
at a cost.
The challenge with our society is this expectation of fairness.
It is not, and will never be, fair…..Period.
Discover the REAL rules to the “system”
and play the game.
take care,
Blacksheep
It is about time that everyone knows what is actually going on.
I’ve been talking with my private banker and financial analyst who are both senior Chinese in Vancouver, including my powerful Chinese networks, they all mention that there are many invested Chinese groups in Vancouver where the members buy and sell to each other trying to raise the prices in the West Side and West Van. They don’t live in them, that’s why most of them are pretty empty. It is game to them to flip at higher prices to raise the house prices in the surrounding areas so they can buy them low and sell them at higher prices to bigger or according to Garth ‘greater fools’. It is like a ponzi scheme with houses.
They greatly affect the housing prices in the West end, whereas in the east end, most locals including the media see this unnecessary outrageous house bidding as a sign that ‘Everyone wants to come here’ and Vancouver is the ‘Greatest place on Earth’, so the locals overbid each other using cheap interest and easy money to buy and sell many properties as a get rich quick scheme.
However, according to them and my network, the time is about over. Last December 2011, most of these invested Chinese groups are now fleeing Vancouver like they did with Richmond and moving to Europe and trying to pull off a similar housing ponzi scheme scenario. There are some that would linger around, but it looks like the party is over here in Vancouver.
Spring 2012 would be an interesting time. Let’s see how many more Chinese groups are still here bidding up Westside prices. And if they are all gone, I wonder how the locals would respond and how many ‘greater fools’ are left. The Chinese network says we could see colossal house price drops of biblical economic proportions never before seen in our time. This is getting very interesting indeed. It would put the Shanghai, HK, and US housing crash to shame.
The house is invisible. I see why Tony likes it.
“Listing Agent’s Favourite Layout?”
Why would any buyer care if it was the Listing Agent’s Favourite Layout… Are they going to visit you often? Are they going to be your new roommate?
This “agent” might just be recommending Favourite Happy Meals in the not too distant future.
And the rich guy should just grow a set and leverage up like everyone else. With 1.5 mill to put down you could afford a $6 million dollar house with 25% down. No cmhc fees, and you can live like a king off the HELOC until you die. Won’t that impress the neighbors.
Because everyone knows that expensive real estate never goes down…
MLS shows 64 new listings posted today in Richmond BC – 29 of them are asking over $1m.
Yesterday there were 60 new listings posted in Richmond BC – 26 of them over $1m.
My god, the asians must be coming in droves at the airport!
@#35Marcel
I would just guess that Vancouver is like the peak of the pendulum. Somethin’ to watch… just like fireworks.
Enjoy the show! Got some popcorn? Hahaa
Garth,
Thank you. I write too, I like your style, not sure if I like your style or your message more. I know, your style is the way you think and “speak”, and the content of your words are attached to your authenticity.
You are a compassionate gentleman.
I thank you for that.
Garth what you are asking Tony to do is to blaze the trail for the next buyer. When you lowball, you will be the target of an angry defiant and resistant greedy seller. Which blazes the trail for the next buyer to come in and swoop up the property for slightly above your offer. You’ve lowered the expectations of the seller, but you won’t be the beneficiary.
Nonplused is this year.s biggest loser man
.
.
.
“There is a listing in the hood we want, that has sat for months.”
I actually like the look of this place, but I admit to being a fan of Mid-Century Modern.
There is no mention of the total square footage of the house nor a construction date, strange? Am I expected to multiply all the room dimensions and add them together? You Canuks are different.
The thing I liked best about the description “Electric Light Fixtures”. Ooooh electricity and for only $1.4 million! How great is that? Look ma, no candles!
Cute house. Crazy overpriced. But you do get those newfangled electric lights and all…..
Vato deth wrote about the millionaire next door and Value Village clothes. I resemble that remark. I count myself fortunate to have had to eke out a meagre existence when I got married at 20 and had two kids in three years. We were poor and could only afford what was required, not what we wanted. I finally put my family in a position, after university, which we paid for on our own dime, where we could afford some finer things. I never forgot the times when we didn’t have and I believe its a lesson we all should learn. I find this funny because I am sitting in the Frankfurt airport Senator lounge awaiting my plane home wearing an outfit that cost me less than ten dollars at Value Village. Its all about getting what you need, not what you want or think you deserve, and not caring about what other people think as long as you are happy. Still married, making 150k a year, no debt, own my home and planning to retire at 55.
Cheers
couple ‘updates’ for the adoring masses …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugbthPAJb_U&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5R1mTyYMuU
I’m still looking for the good news about the end of the Mayan calendar. Later maybe … !
Meanwhile, Jim Flaherty has been able to secure, without competitive bids, some highly qualified assistance in getting the message out.
http://events.streamlogics.net/purolator/PrestiDigitizer/en/auditorium/tags/Prestidigitizer_070912-100.asf
Hi #16ab, re: (we’ve done improvements since they’ve seen it).
I was just wondering what you have done? It might have been what helped. Was it simply a new coat of nutral colored paint, ruggs, furnace, roof, windows, removed the clutter?
And, I hope you get the offer you hoped for.
Tony, good work, why buy? Sell your place at the top, rent a nice place in that area and wait for these types or props to get pounded! Further you need to wait until the property taxes catch up with the devaluation.
No fun paying taxes on a 1.4M when its only worth 750K!
Remember when 25% down on a 1500 sqft with 12% interest rates meant something!!!!!!
You saved, drove a Sh*t Box, and you were surrounded by the same.
Today, it’s the opposite and quite honestly living in the Canadian burbs insults my intelligence! Why do you think Zombies are so in fashion.
Garth, what about places like Markham and Stoufville and Goodwood Ontario?
Shane
#48 BC Bring Cash on 01.05.12 at 12:39 am
———————————————
July 2013 should tell a different story. Wait for it.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10982742&PidKey=-1381438780
See Tony, you can have your own castle (6 br, 5 bath, 4700 sq/ft) in Barrie close to the water for under $500,000.
http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2012/01/perth-land-sales-fall-70-prices-slashed.html
“Now just imagine what these 2012 discounts will do to the value of the “House & Land Packages” people signed up to in 2011 believing the crap served up to them by PROPERTY Spruikers in 2011.
The paint will hardly be dry on their 2011 House & Land Packages & they have already lost $30,000 – $50,000 in equity on a $300k – $350K house & land Deal signed up to less than 12 months earlier. ”
Ugly! Thank god we live on a island.
Slightly off topic but current. Peter MacKay just wed a former beauty queen. Marriage counsellors are concerned about how Harper’s arm up Peter’s **s is going to affect the long-term health of the relationship . I give this union 1 term max.
Antonio !
What a piece of crap !! 1.4 million for THAT ?! Are you kidding me ?
I love the advertising of all of the “extras” like the stainless steel fridge … ha ha ha .. who the hell cares about the damned appliances .. a bloody top of the line fridge will cost you around 2 grand .. they want 1.4 million because of the stainless steel appliances ? Are you kidding me ? If that’s the best thing about this place (other than the location), keep walking.
Antonio, have you and your wife even gone to visit the place ? Perhaps you should start with that. Call an agent and set something up (a good one). Then go and visit. If after you have seen everything (house, survey, declared problems from owners etc..) you still want it, then WAIT .. do NOT make an offer right away. Tell them you are “thinking about it”. Then ask them if they have a professional evaluation in hand .. if they don’t, think some more. Raise their hopes a bit but don’t seem too eager. Then see if you can follow Garth’s advice .. it is very sound. Make it super attractive for them to accept your offer and deal with things other than money .. perhaps even offer to pay closing costs (that is if the bank is not doing it for you as our bank has offered to do when we eventually buy).
I have been waiting to buy in an overpriced market for almost two years now and I am soooo lucky that I am not looking in the 416 or 905 (I grew up there and wouldn’t go back for anything). Here in the beautiful Eastern Townships of Quebec you can get around an acre of land and a dreamy newbuild with cathedral ceilings and 100 feet of lake waterfront for that price. Antonio, you just made my complaining seem so very silly when I see what you are considering buying for around a million.
For that price, I want plenty of insulation from my neighbours (minimum 1 acre of land), a gorgeous, well built home with a huge professional kitchen, hardwood floors, large picture windows and gorgeous outdoor patios overlooking lake and mountain scenery. Heck the house I own right now would make that place look like a toilet and I only paid $260,000.00 in 2003 (my neighbourhood is also top notch, the old north of the city .. all heritage homes and mature trees).
Antonio, if I were you, I would keep looking and see if there is something better. With your budget I am certain that you should have plenty of options … there is no hurry, especially with the economy being what it is. Get an agent, visit a variety of places and get a real feel for what is out there.
Good luck with your house hunting.
HHHW
#61 TheWhistleblower,
Interesting post.
You said, “The Chinese network says we could see colossal house price drops of biblical economic proportions never before seen in our time. This is getting very interesting indeed. It would put the Shanghai, HK, and US housing crash to shame.”
If that is the case then we would see drops of more than 30% and perhaps over 50%. This may happen but over a number of years and not until interest rates rise.
As with all things to do with China things are more complex then the situation you describe. There is a lot of Chinese money in Vancouver that drank the Kool-Aid on housing and will stay in Vancouver and live with their decisions. However there is also no question that there are syndicates of investors here as well as you point out.
We won’t know how significant the size of this group is until after the bubble crashes.
#39 ROMEO JORDON: “Leads me to conclude that there WILL be a change in mortgage rules in a couple of months….”
********************************
Of course, there will be.
F, H, and C are systematically correcting their previous irresponsible decisions.
They’ll be expecting credit for their ‘prudent’ decisions.
How quickly we forget…
There are always anomalies in the market…many listings don’t tell the true story of the human drama that unfolds behind closed doors when there is death in the family, divorce, lay offs, illness, job transfer…etc etc etc.
Tony…have some fun….get out of your car in the area you would like to buy in and knock on every door in the neighborhood….approach each homeowner like this….
“Hi I’m Tony Blah Blah…….I want to live in this area…..I would pay ‘X’ for this house if it were available today….I can close any time you want ( say …’by Friday’ no matter what day it is…people seem to like Fridays) ….When do YOU plan on moving?”……
Use that exact script Tony….then take a half step back…smile….and shut up…wait for the reponse. Note that the spiel I designed is so that the respondant can’t say ‘no’. Keep smiling…keep your distance…be patient…..say nothing else….wait…..ssshhhh…..make them talk to you.
I did this a zillion times….and bought many houses….. its a numbers game….you fish and eventually you’ll hook a sucker…..have patience..perseverance. The best props are not always ‘listed’.
If the owner bites…follow through with “We’ll both save ten grand if we don’t use an expensive real estate agent.” Tell them them you can do the deal at the notaries office of their choice.
You’re going to find that there are people who got a layoff notice today…or news that they are transferred out and have thirty days to relocate ( I found that twice) , they have cancer…someone in the family died….the wife wants out…..etc etc.
My last two deals were with a woman who worked for customs and had been transferred and she was relieved that I was prepared to give her cash within a week…the second was a builder who was anxious to make a payment on his project loan….both just lucky door knocks that made me good money….with zero commission paid out.
This strategy works in up or down markets…….and the funnest thing is to sit at the vendors kitchen table signing the contract ( I always have a few in my briefcase and use the tax notice for the legal description info) using the local ‘area specialist’ real estate whores free pen and calendar.
Don’t wait for a ‘listing’ to come up in the right area ….get some balls and swing ’em……very satisfying. All you’re doing is beating the local realtard to the punch.
Another strat thats been effective is printing up some flyers and having them delivered by the PO on whatever ‘route walk’ you want to locate……..wait two days after delivery and then go to the library to photocopy the criss cross directory….take all the phone numbers home and start calling…use the same script……have a drink while you dial….lubricate….ahve some fun…..you’d be surprised at the responses you get and how easy you’ll adapt to the game.
#52 Valyrian_Steel,
Your situation is similar to mine. In my case it was more a more matter of luck in not leveraging up a few years back and sticking with the plan. However it is difficult in Vancouver when the common opinion is so different.
You are probably over the age of 45 and perhaps even Gen-X like myself. We were mature enough to see the signs. However I am pretty sure if I had been 10 years younger I would have taken the leap on a huge mortgage a few years back. Fortunately I had enough experience in business and life to see through it.
My worry about Vancouver are the people under 35 who are holding a large mortgage. Instead of saving that group puts all of their salaries against their mortgage on the belief that real estate will forever rise. This is the generation that is going to get burned by the bubble burst the most.
Hi Garth,
Any insight into the St. John’s, Rock, housing market?
Thanks!
Garth: Please do a piece on Regina for a change. There are all sorts of delusional people out here…
Bridgewater, one of the largest and most successful US hedge funds has this outlook on the economy and investments in general recently:
Bridgewater Associates is a giant U.S. hedge fund that has made big money for investors by remaining bearish on the global economy. The firm stated this week it has no plans of changing that view and I have included highlights (excerpts) that provide very interesting insight.
Bridgewater’s flagship Pure Alpha Strategy fund is considered one of the top funds in the world. The firm manages $125 billion and has 1,400 employees.
1) they are preparing for at least a decade of slow growth and high unemployment for the big developed economies. “Mr. Prince describes those economies-the U.S. and Europe, in particular-as “zombies” and says they will remain that way until they work through their mountains of debt.”
2) “We’re in a secular deleveraging that will probably take 15 to 20 years to work through and we’re just four years in.” In Europe, “the debt crisis is a long ways from over. The economic and financial morass will mean interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will essentially be locked at zero for years.
3) stocks remain vulnerable to “air pockets” from shocks, such as bad news out of Europe. But for longer-term investors looking out over the next decade, he says, equities may be a good buy. There is even money to be made in U.S. Treasurys, despite interest rates near record lows, and gold is likely to resume its climb as central banks print money to bolster their economies.
4) Currently, the fund is positioned for higher gold prices. Gold prices should resume a rally amid continued printing of money by the Fed and other central banks. Those efforts effectively devalue those countries’ currencies compared with gold.
5) Recent better-than-expected news on the U.S. economy is unlikely to be the start of a healthy expansion. The uptick in economic growth has been fueled by a decline in the savings rate, which, without material income and employment gains, is unlikely to be sustainable as long-term credit growth also remains weak.
6) We were in a leveraging-up period for 60 years, from the early 1950s to 2008. This debt bubble was self-reinforcing on the way up, and “when it tipped over, it set about a self-reinforcing process on the way down. The most likely environment is moderate growth with wiggles up and down.
7) Europe, meanwhile, is headed into a potentially deep recession, with policy makers boxed in by an interconnected banking and sovereign-debt crisis. “You’ve got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks,”.
8) Stocks are attractive from a long-term perspective, especially compared with bonds or cash. A moribund economic outlook “is pretty priced in right now,” he says. “If we have a long, drawn out deleveraging process without substantial air pockets, chances are equities are a pretty good bet, ironically.”
It could be worse…You could have a castle in rural Ontario and then Mcguinty allows an Industrial Wind Farm to be built next store….You will lose 40% of your investment….before any real estate correction….
ahhhhh yes, BC Assessment once again appraises houses ridiculously high …….as the market slumps.
If the dolts at that provincial agency could win an award for incompetance, their office walls would be covered in Gold.
One wonders what the map will look like next Jan.
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316908
In a city struggling with one of the highest unemployment rates (9.8 percent) for a city its size in Canada, the loss of yet another major industry would be a hard blow to the area economy.
Sad and it is going to get worse.
We are losing the battle.
If you’ve lurking around this “pathetic” blog for any amount of time you must by now well know that I take my business VERY seriously and only hang around to drive home the truths and dispel the myths about the real estate industry.
The truth is your property assessment is no valid indication of your properties market value. As a matter of fact the best way for you to dispute it, if you feel the need to one way or the other, is to appeal that it is disproportionate to the other properties in your neighbourhoods assessed values. That is to say don’t tell them you think your home is over or under assessed but rather that you are under or over assessed compared to the others and thus not paying enough or too much tax in consequence. You might be in a neighbourhood of $500,000 homes all of which are assessed at $600,000 with the exception of yours which for one reason or another is assessed at $750,000 even though it too is a $500,000 home. You would then be paying more in property taxes than all of your neighbours even though your home was of the same value. Assessment are not about the actual market value of your home they are about your due share of the municipal tax burden which is related to the value of your home compared to that of your neighbour but not the actual number value.
When you appeal that you are over assessed, seek to have it reduced proportionate to that which your neighbours are assessed at so you each share the tax burden accordingly.
On a final note, an under assessed home has a benefit to a buyer in that, if they choose to leave it there, they will avoid some of their fair share of the municipal tax burden. Yes of course they will argue that the home is worth less. They are trying to get the home for less just as you would be trying to get as much for it as you possibly could. Do you have any idea how many homes of which the price was negotiated down due to the finding of asbestos insulation were subsequently remediated afterward. Strange how such buyers suddenly upon moving into an asbestos laden home aren’t quite so adverse to it. It’s a negotiation tactic far more often than not. According to my inside sources in the remediation industry of all the estimates they do only 3 to 5% result in a remediation contract.
Warning, Warning!!!
Long decrease of Canadian RE prices is beginning…
In Toronto (GTA):
Average selling price for December 2011 is $451,436 (only +4% higher compared to December 2010):
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2011/nr_market_watch_1211.htm
But it was an average selling price of $480,421 for November 2011 (+10% compared to November 2010):
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2011/nr_market_watch_1111.htm
Summary: – $28,985 (-6%) in only one month…
This average price will easy go under $400,000 on next years. Too late for peoples buying in 2010 and 2011.
First buyers must avoid Canadian housing market until 2014-2015.
Virgin territory:
Ok, I’ve never bought a house before, and I think I’m missing something here.
Other than seeing the same listing coming up on MLS for weeks at a time, checking daily etc, how can you tell how long a place has been listed?
I’m looking at the place Tony mentioned: is it hidden somehow in the MLS number, do I have to go to some other website, what am I missing?
DA yesterday
Good job of not answering a single awkward question, and congratulations on your warm friendship with westernman. That alone renders you completely irrelevant. While I know many realtors who have integrity and common sense, I see none of that in your comments.
Barclays downgrades Canada financial sector
“TORONTO (Reuters) – Brokerage firm Barclays Capital on Thursday lowered its rating on the Canadian financial services sector, saying domestic and global headwinds are likely to slow earnings growth in 2012.
Barclays cut its rating on the sector to “neutral” from “positive.” The firm also downgraded individual companies within the sector and cut price targets on shares of all of Canada’s top banks and insurers.”
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE8040OV20120105
As the saying goes, If they aren’t insulted by your offer, it wasn’t low enough.
nice view of the watertower from the front porch …..
Tony is fairly typical, he thinks he is wealthy strictly through his own work. This is true on one level, but he ignores the enormous advantages provided to him through the society we live in and the taxes we pay. People like Tony are generally blow-hards. He should move south and vote for Ron Paul.
The home in question is a teardown which Tony doesn’t mention, the room sizes put it in 1,200 square foot territory. A lot that size in Edwards Gardens, which is one of the most expensive areas in Toronto, is likely 1 million without a house on it. The lot is worth more with a house on it, the rattier the better preferably, because it is then a “renovation” and not “new construction”.
Tony can try to lowball to get what he wants but he may die of old age before somebody agrees with him. He also could move to Barrie or what have you, like people suggest, but there is a reason why certain areas are more valuable than others: it’s called location, location and did I say location, like just beside The Bridle Path location.
#72 onemorething
“Further you need to wait until the property taxes catch up with the devaluation.
No fun paying taxes on a 1.4M when its only worth 750K!”
actually, taxes do not drop in accordance with assessments….when the market drops and assessments drop “across the board”, property taxes remain steady. the city still needs to meet their budget !
The Phoenix Phenomenon – Can this happen in Canada?
http://canadabubble.com/bubble-watch/2285-phoenix-phenomenon-why-real-estate-everywhere-will-eventually-drop-over-50.html
#23 Jeune Investisseur Immobilier
———–
Not to knock you too hard buddy, as your approach seems sensible… However, are you in fact oblivious to the possible risks? It is somewhat likely that.. a) your gross revenue could drop due to either vacancy or falling rents, b) your gross could drop due to increasing property taxes, c) your gross could drop as the rate on your 300k plus mortgage normalizes from around 3% to 6% or heaven forbid overshoots to 9% or higher… or d) your gross could drop due to unanticipated maintenance.
As long as you can handle those risks, and not be forced to sell into a falling market due to negative cash flow… then my “jeune investisseur” you should be OK.
#23. Wait till you’ve been a landlord for a while, bad tennats, repairs, maintance and worse of all grandfathered upgrades. my sis in law got caught on that one, once the property changed hands she had to do a ton of upgrades to bring it up to code. Making matters worse was the fact it is cash flow negative.
I regret to inform this blog that TREB is now on a data manipulation rampage. Here’s what they did with today’s report:
Firstly, TREB reported today that Dec 2011 sales figures was up 4% from Dec 2010, when in fact it was up 10% as can be seen here in today’s report (last page). http://i42.tinypic.com/9k4128.png TREB’s statistician department seems to be confusing themselves.
Secondly, they had revised ALL of 2010 sales figures down and for the first time in months, they went back and revised 2011 sales from Jan-Nov (except March). http://i42.tinypic.com/20hnclg.png This sparks a change from what I believed were seasonal moving averages but now realize TREB is outright manipulating previous sales downward in order to make upcoming monthly sales look better then they are.
Ex. Looking at the last chart you can see TREB initially reported Jan 2011 sales at 4337, then revised to 4208 in July, then unchanged from Aug-Nov, and lastly revised to 4199 in Dec. Moving averages do not change in this kind of order.
The reason why they would revise Jan-Feb 2011 (in late Dec) is because they probably expect lower sales this Jan-Feb, so by lowering the previous year’s sales down, will make Jan-Feb 2012 look better.
Lastly, as an ongoing overview into these manipulated stats, TREB’s statisticians continue to do what every statistician shouldn’t do, that is to report 2011 seasonally adjusted figures to 2010 unadjusted figures. As we’ve seen with today’s report, the manipulation is taking it’s toll and now confusing the very institution that is reporting it.
Sidenote: TREB reported commercial RE down -3.5%, but who knows what that number represents. Never forget things are much worse then they appear.
# 91 Garth just had a post on that very thing, look for it
Junius Whistleblower et al:
Apparently, the Europeans are moving money into CDN $ via real estate purchases here. Throws a little cold water on your Chinese exit story. Next year, the Chinese government will allow twice as many Chinese to leave and visit Canada. They have avoided the US due to it’s problems and they will avoid the Euro zone for the same reason. No reason to believe they don’t think Canada is the best place to move money, family and raise their children.
Only a fool would not carefully examine his neighbours assessments w.r.t. his own. (In Ontario, get on the MPAC site and see what information your neighbours have showing about their properties.)
I am totally legal and all work has been permitted.
Surprise surprise. The City of Hamilton had given an $8000 permit on my neighbour’s fully completed 1000+500 sf, $135000 addition. That was the number reported to the MPAC office for assessment improvements.
Other neighbour had a huge sized, recent $30,000 professionally built garage built under a $10000 permit. For some reason MPAC never even had a record of that $10000 permit even being issued. (Very suspicious City of Hamilton. He is a local builder.)
Many neighbours on the same street are showing up on the MPAC site as having unfinished basements when they are stuffed with another full washroom and 3-4 student rental rooms.
MPAC (Ontario) had me with just about the highest assessment on the street. I’m pi$$ed. Appealed with copious documentation. Insisted on a visit to inspect my house and to view neighbouring properties, from the street, that were the basis of my appeal. MPAC staffer was very surprised and helpful to say the least.
I got my assessment knocked back about $40000+ netting approx. $375 in tax savings per year. That has now carried on for 1.5 years, so to date almost $575 saved.
#40 U-The Man….. If this type of speculation and insider trading were happening in the stock market the authorities would stop it…
—————-
Quaint, but not so… as a full time trader for 12+ years, I can tell you that insider is alive and well… and in fact is ramping up and becoming endemic… like rats fleeing the proverbial ship. Learn a bit about our industry, and you will learn that the regulators are in bed with the insiders… thanks to the sleight of hand known as the “self regulating industry”. I wish I could “self regulate” my taxes… haha!
#16 ab.
Take the offer if you really are intending on selling, we went through this a year ago and feel pretty good about our decision as we sold whereas many others that stood firm with their prices are still for sale. We were in the Okanagan, you didn’t specify where on the Island you are but sales are really slow everywhere. The ferry rate controversy is keeping a lot of mainlanders and Albertans away from purchasing in the mid Island area so you have lost a percentage of potential buyers
More info on today’s TREB report
Chart: GTA Average Prices (Detached, Semi-Detached, Condo Apt.) http://i40.tinypic.com/24nft4i.png
Dec 2010 – Dec 2011 YOY
Detached Sales 416 +6.19%
Detached Average Price 416 +27.63%
Nov 2011 – Dec 2011 MOM
Detached Sales 416 -35.28%
Detached Average Price 416 -6.05%
Dec 2010 – Dec 2011 YOY
Condo Sales 416 +2.92%
Condo Average Price 416 +15.79%
Nov 2011 – Dec 2011 MOM
Condo Sales 416 -30.61%
Condo Average Price 416 -2.44%
1 in 100 Canadian households have 2 million to invest? 2 in 100 have 1 million? That seems extremely high to me.
Am I the only one that finds those statistics mind boggling?
What Tony wants is vindication, for all those long, lonely years of ridicule. He longs for recognition, for acknowledgement that his suffering was virtuous after all. He wants his friends and family to be present when he declares “See, I have paid cash for this house, while you are still making mortgage payments”.
But even if the above were not true (but I believe strongly that it is), still, Tony wants to have a nicer house, as a reward for his patient toil. But, either way, in the end, he will find that his desires were without meaning, based on the vanity of his ego, and not based on the transcendent knowledge of his Self.
Sadly, it may take half a mil dropped on a Hoggs Hollow property near Dr. Sherry Cooper, and 5 years into retirement before Tony finally catches a glimpse of the eternal darkness that awaits him. A lifetime spent only avoiding Death is a lifetime wasted.
This is why, Blacksheep, for example, that Malthus / Darwin / Raleigh / Hawking / Pasteur / Newton / and all others who describe the world in materialistic fashion alone, are completely out to lunch. Our antiquated worldview must change, and only then, will change… our world.
Oops, made a mistake in the total Canadian household debt graph. Top of the graph should be 2002 not 2000.
http://tinyurl.com/7byxzjx
Sorry Garth, made the same mistake.
So here is the correct graph for total household debt in Canada.
http://tinyurl.com/7pwaefh
#61 The Whistleblower on 01.05.12 at 2:26 am
#82 Junius on 01.05.12 at 10:01 am
This would not surprise me in the least. West side Vancouver residents know well the mansions next door sitting empty for years, held by offshore “investors”.
I also count myself fortunate to be on the right side of the Gen X – Gen Y generational cusp and to have found sage investment advice so as to not have mortgaged massively in Vancouver over the past 5 years.
I wish I could say the same for friends and family member 5-10 years my junior. It will be a real shame if they get caught in the backdraft of shady dealings like this.
I like the house. There is nothing ugly about it. Nice wide lot. Double car garage. What else can you ask for.
I’m in agreement with ya DoomedinSask!!!!
#16 AB
Take the offer, come Feb, all the listings that have expired on my PCS will start flooding back in. On average house’s are selling for about 50-60K below assessment. A house I put in an offer on, was assessed for $510,000, they appealed and had it dropped to $470,000, the house sold for $450,000 (minus commission) In Victoria, and Vancouver, there is absolutely nothing to support price increases, and lots of downward pressure.
Average selling price of a Detached House in the 416 in May 2011: $772k
Average selling price of a Detached House in the 416 in December 2011: $702k (-9.1% decline in 7 months)
Average selling price for all house types, November 2011: $480k
Average selling price for all house types, December 2011: $451k (-6% in 1 month!!!)
#114 Cory
Have trouble figuring out whether you’re sarcastic or genuine. Mostly due to our real estate mania, along with the awkward posters who tend to frequent this site, it’s honestly difficult to tell.
Hi – question for the readership…
Does anyone know of a good online ‘retirement calculator’ which takes into account:
– how much you pay to mortgage vs retirement for the X years of remaining mortgage, AND
– how much you can expect to invest for retirement savings once the mortgage done.
(ie: a person may have a mortgage/savings ratio of $1800 / $900 a month. But once that Mortgage is done in X years, then it changes to $0/$2700)
While retirement calculators are not the be-all-end-all, they’re a handy tool.
Yet I find that they’re all a bit simplistic, and all just have a single box for “how much do you save a month”, and “how is rent/mortgage a month”.
Thanks!
I suddenly got an “earworm” while reading this Pennsylvanian’s brief guide to the Rick Santorum . Geez! Indeed Where have all the good people gone?
2012http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attytood/The-Santorum-that-America-doesnt-know.html
http://prospect.org/article/little-help-his-friends
Will Bunch
February 20, 2006
Wise words there disciple, some good post holiday food for thought. For the record I think your assessment of Tony is spot on, in the end, every single person on this blog wants their ‘look at me now’ moment, including Garth! While on the topic, I was rather surprised to see Mr. bubble boy prominently featured in the lastest copy of Toronto Life. I particularly enjoyed this comment, ‘Mr. Turner has a knack for identifying populist sentiment and monitizing it for personal gain.’ Did you know his website got over 5mm hits last year?? Silly rabbits. I was also shocked to find that Mr. Turner has only been officially licensed to counsel individuals on financial matters for two years! Shame on you for waiting so long to write your CPH. I used to wonder why you bothered Garth but it’s all becoming quite clear to me now. By the way, congrats on your first 150mm under management, the first 100 is the hardest to raise.
Garth, since you referred to Dennis Gartman a while ago regarding price of gold, care to comment on this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gartman-flip-flops-again-now-sees-bull-market-gold-time-sell-everything
When you are on it, do check out Gartman’s ETF performance, spectacular!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HAG.TO&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Tony’s a consultant?
To this day, I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why anyone would pay ANY consultant anything more than peanuts.
What gives?
Timbo
Regarding the death of River Moore (profits before life)
http://www.courthousenews.com/2012/01/04/Tylenol.pdf “phantom or stealth recall”
buying up the tainted drugs from stores on the sly without issuing a recall.
http://www.courthousenews.com/2012/01/04/42739.htm
Vultching in 2012?
Maybe – the sentiment is turning, according to today’s report from Reuters (full text follows):
“Canadians less confident about economy: poll
Thu Jan 5, 2012 11:45am EST
Print This Article
[-] Text [+]
TORONTO (Reuters) – Canadians are growing more worried about the country’s economy and are less confident it will improve in 2012, according to an annual survey by the Economic Club of Canada and pollster Pollara Strategic Insights, released on Thursday.
Only 25 percent of respondents expressed optimism about the economy in the latest survey, down from 36 percent in December 2010, and 54 percent in 2009. Seventy percent believe Canada is already in a mild recession.
“If last year I reported that Canadians were cautious and retrenching, then this year I have to state that they are now seriously concerned and worried,” Michael Marzolini, chairman of Pollara, said in a speech at the Economic Club of Canada’s annual economic outlook forum.
“This year’s results are the most pessimistic in 16 years across all the indicators that we have been testing since 1985,” he said.
Marzolini said the pessimism is largely due to expectations about the outlook in the Unites States, as well as the landscape for the global economy, particularly with respect to sovereign debt problems in Europe.
The online poll of 2,878 respondents was conducted in mid-December, providing accuracy to plus or minus 1.8 percent, Pollara said.
(Reporting By Jennifer Kwan; editing by Rob Wilson)”
@101 LAST
Don’t worry for me. I’ve been a landlord for 3 years now. I own 9 units in total. Yes I might have bad tenants someday (i already had once), but you know this is part of the the risk of being in the RE business. More, I live for free in my own appartment… thanks to my 8 others tenants. I don’t use of my own money to have a roof over my head. So yes, I’m willing to manage some problems from time to time. (and my interests are tax-deductible…). And this is just a beginning, I plan to keep on purchasing other plex.
Steve
@GregW, Oakville:
“Hi #16ab, re: (we’ve done improvements since they’ve seen it).
I was just wondering what you have done?” Laid tile in the entry to the rental, and, yes, cleaned up clutter. They haven’t seen the work yet, though, but they know about it.
I’ll let you know how the offer goes. This Saturday!
DA,
Last thread.
“I see no evidence in the local market which suggests so and am happy to sit down with anyone and pull directly from the local MLS the raw data under their direction that they might seek to prove me wrong. I know that it just is not there.”
So offer it up. You have been asked many times and always defer with some lame excuse. Until you provide something to back you up your just the boring guy who has had too many cocktails that sends other party guests to head for punchbowl when you join their consersations.
1,200 square feet is small. My master bedroom is bigger than 1,200 square feet and not in Elliot lake. Tony should just sell the house to some idiot and rent for the next 3 to 4 years.
#109 SpaceMonkey:
“1 in 100 Canadian households have 2 million to invest? 2 in 100 have 1 million? That seems extremely high to me.”
—
That’s not quite what G said. It depends on how the high net individuals are grouped into families. (You see, G is a writer and a politician; he has a natural tendency for vagueness.)
To all renters, keep subsidizing other people’s mortgages please. We are different in Canada. Our debt to income ratio have surpassed the US and there are signs of a overheated market posted all over the place according to “reports”. Where’s the all anticipated bubble burst? Does that not makes us different already?
The only reaction is a possible 10-15% correction? That’s chump change. How is that ending not well for buyers who took advantage of the opportunities? Is there an investment credit that writes off 100% of tax and pays your rent back? Hmm….
Form Man – “Kelowna 15% drop according to CREA”
I hate to let mere facts get in the way of a good argument, and maybe my googling skills are below par, but:
I assume CREA gets its info from OMREB. According to The Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board’s latest report for Central Okanagan Residential (Nov 2011),
Average prices are HIGHER than Nov 2010;
Average prices are slightly lower than Dec 2010.
The only way I get a 15% drop is using the highest monthly stat – Sept 2011 $518K vs $457K.
Is this what you mean? A 15% drop from this high?
If so, I would say Sept 2011 was a statistical quirk – if we look at MEDIAN prices, instead of AVERAGE prices (which, as you likely know, removes the distorting effects of a few exceptionally high or low priced homes):
Jan 2011: $410K
Sep 2011: $427K
Nov 2011: $427K
Don’t get me wrong – I would love you to be right, with a spill-over effect into Vancouver, where I’m an increasingly impatient renter, so if you have better (verifiable) info than me, let’s have it.
Re: #55 Tim on 01.05.12 at 1:25 am
Tell that to all the people who saw no increase or a decrease in the last 10 years. Oh and the next 10 years should be much worst than the last 10 years if you’re long stocks. Don’t be brainwashed by all the malarkey you see on Wall Street. Fundamentally the markets are around quad what they should be.
Garth can you comment on the Foreclosures in Canada, specifically as to the laws of advertising and selling of foreclosed homes as foreclosures. It seems there is a difference from the US in that I was told by a RE agent that CREA idoes not allow them to advertise a property as foreclosure but they can tell you if you explicitly ask. I have noticed in many smaller centers eg. Oshawa that many homes are sitting empty but you have to press the agent for the information as to the homes status. This information is only available to agents so as to not prejudice the homes value is what I’ve been told, like your not going to know looking at an empty house. The wheels are rapidly coming off the wagon in most areas, with this springs market probably seeing a larger than normal increase of listings because people have been holding off after a slow fall and winter period.
Nick # 90
you are right about that. my girlfriend got married in Sept and her father a realtor told her not to buy RE as prices are going to drop 15-20% in the GTA next year (2012). I was surprised to hear this coming from a man who was always bullish on RE. I guess when realtors sell they lie and tell you to buy mean while they tell family to hold off buying.
Tony, why do you want to buy a 1961 tear-down for that kind of coin? Who would let their family live in that? You can do better Tony.
If you tried a stunt like that with my wife, she would either have the authorities incarcerate you for domestic abuse or have you permanently committed to the nut house.
#104 Alan,
Thanks for taking your usual realtor position on this issue. I am wondering if you, TRT, Stevenson and BPOE could be any more blind on this issue.
First of all, the idea that Europeans are going to start investing in Canadian Real Estate in droves is even more ludicrous than American doing it. I am sure there is a greater fool out there somewhere who will. However when considering that they have already seen what happens when a housing bubble bursts we are unlikely to see more than a few?
Secondly, Asians travelling and Asians immigrating are different things.
Finally, on the demand side only argument I offer Ben Radioux’s analysis (once again). Perhaps you and the other pumpers would care to actually do some analysis on this issue (assuming you can) before continuing it.
Here it is:
http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/revisiting-population-growth-drives-house-prices-argument-still-leaking-sieve
#116 spaceman
Continuing in approximately that same vein: we received our 2012 property assessment notice today in our fair city of Victoria.
For the first time since the year 2000 the assessors have determined that our trusty little abode (in a very nice part of town) should decline — for the first time since the year 2000!
Not by much, $4,300.00, but enough that elsewhere in the neighbourhood, those homeowners with any common sense (and it’s lacking in this town for sure!) should be rattling their tea cups and breaking out the emergency supplies of scones and English Muffins! Why not? It won’t mean lower taxes, but it may ultimately give younger types a chance to buy.
It’s FINALLY being fully understood here that the Greater Victoria Real Estate Edifice is cracking under the strains of reality: no HAM no way; government austerity in the wings; lousy stock market returns; higher imposts and other taxes.
Local property “Serfing” is getting a little ragged about the edges, eh wot, mate?!
The decline, now tentative, will gather steam and probably alarmingly fast. I can see no reason for an upward home-price swing and, along with it, higher assessments.
This “new” situation is yet another reason for would-be buyers to remain “railbirds” for at least the next two years, perhaps longer, especially if the NDP were to coast to victory next year!
At that point change plans and instead get outta Dodge and head to the east of the rockpile…way east!
“The Chinese network says we could see colossal house price drops of biblical economic proportions never before seen in our time. This is getting very interesting indeed. It would put the Shanghai, HK, and US housing crash to shame.”
> Aha = at party with mostly very wealthy Chinese, as we have been blessed with many friends from that part of the world; kind of an early Chinese New Year fete, last night. (*The Year of the Dragon).
The whole discussion revolved around RE. Many of these folks are trying like he** to dump speck properties that are draining their cash flow, as they are getting killed with their square footage in Shanghai, etc. as well as Yaletown, and other areas.
Much of the lending, in China,was grey market and one friend admitted (hello Glenlivet) that he had borrowed from sharks to get a pre-build near “The Bund”. He says that he is getting very worried. He is already way out of pocket.
He has his properties for sale = and the prebuild has been delayed, and his business, here, is starting to slow.
I kept hearing the word “Leverage” resounding in my pea brain.
I got a clear picture of what some of our so called HAM folks are thinking, and it’s apparent they are really freaked. (*Many of the guests use Vancouver as a bolt hole, more than really live here. Most said they have no desire to move here permanently – they want San Francisco, or New York, or London. Vancouver is “BORING”, according to one of the Armani clad martini sippers.
Not a pretty picture.
How pathetic and uneducated. And what do tell is going to be the cause of such a drop. Cue crickets. You have been outed American for the fraud you are. The maps told the TRUE story while you spin lies. You must work for the American government. You will be proven wrong again this year. Your predictions for 2011 did not come to fruition and were dead wrong. Shamless fear mongering of 40% PLUS ROFLOL
*************************************
#50 The American on 01.05.12 at 12:55 am
And as I’ve been saying, 40%+ correction in Vancouver, GUARANTEED MINIMUM. Poor 52ndBPOE has no idea how to handle it, so he just assumes that by claiming I am “wrong” that somehow it would make him right. Funny logic, or lack thereof, he uses. Well, I called the correction at this time (first quarter 2012) for BC to become “more pronounced and noticeable to the public.” It is now precisely just that. Just because 52ndBPOE may not like this fact, does not make it any less true. The market across all of BC is going to get slaughtered. Vancouver, however, is something completely different. Vancouver is going to get slaughtered, sausaged up in its own casing, bought, ate up, and shat out. It is going to be horrifically ugly. 52ndBPOE loves to talk about HAM. Would you like to know what has happened to Shanghai property values since October 2011 (yes, only 90 days ago). Values have C O L L A P S E D 20%. Government restrictions are largely responsible, but given the heightened restraint in wealth as shown on paper for many of these individuals, it is indeed going to adversely affect all of BC in the long run. 52ndBPOE, I hope it was fun while it lasted. By the way, you may want to consider getting some four-way stop lights in Vancouver to help along with the disgusting congestion in its urban core, instead of the cheap ass two way stop light/two way stop signs. LOL And you call that world class…. Laughable.
.
A condo in Canmore that we rented two years ago was then listed at $685,000. It’s now offered at $379,000 and has been on the market for three years. No offers…
DoomedinSask.,
Why would Garth do a post on Regina or any place in Sask.?
He only covers real estate that matters…
#1 Josef on 01.04.12 at 10:34 pm
First!!! OH Yeah BABY!!!!!
************************
Josef.. Officially the FIRST IDIOT of 2012
#102 Canadian Watchdog on 01.05.12 at 1:08 pm
I regret to inform this blog that TREB is now on a data manipulation rampage. Here’s what they did with today’s report:
Actually I think you are confused. Making revisions to data is quite normal (statistics canada does it to many data sets when additional data becomes available, without announcing the changes). Changes to TREB’s data is even easier to understand. Monthly sales counts are based on firm sales, not based on date of possession or closing. As a result, if a sale falls through due to financing, or some other reason after it has been processed at the board it must be reversed in the back data. This revision can easily take a couple of months (think of how long it takes for a deal to close).
My understanding is that most major real estate boards revise their data, but don’t announce it explicitly (or don’t have the expertise to explain it). As a result, it is foreseeable that all current data is inflated, but the same can be said aboutthe previous year. They should be comparing inflated data from current, to inflated data from the past year to get a better comparison.
#106 Sean on 01.05.12 at 1:21 pm
Insider trading is good for the market.
After 12 years of day trading you should know better.
Read on.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/insider-trading-you-can-t-regulate-uncertainty&ppref=CRX058ED0611A
While you await Garths response I will tell you this: If I could advertise listings as “foreclosure” I surely would as it attracts the attention of those Blood Sucking Vultures who are actually nothing more than Greater Fools thinking there is a real deal to be had at someone else’s expense. Don’t know how often I have to repeat myself before they learn – there are no outrageously super stupendous deals in real estate. If there were who do you think would be first in line long before you? You got it “REALTORS!”. But we are precluded from using our “expertise” and buying something so far below its market value by the courts who tend to really frown on that kind of thing. So what do we do… we tell the sellers what it is really worth and it never hits the market at that outrageously super stupendous deal price and gladly take a commission for having guided the otherwise ignorant seller toward his/her best move.
Dang – always a fly in the ointment of the most dastardly plan. Don’tchajusthateus? ;-)
Been hearing deals going bad as HAM has been walking away from deals the past few months in GTA. We all read about trump tower condo investors looking to get out of their condo deals . Plus other sales reps around the GTA are reporting pre built condo buyers are also looking to get out of this falling market. I think over 15% drop in prices in the GTA will be no problem.
#126 Two-thirds on 01.05.12 at 4:28 pm
So what? People are scared. Understandable.
This poll is nothing to base any rational decisions on.
Reality is much different.
Just look at how people vote. Sheeples.
#137 Ret on 01.05.12 at 5:31 pm
Now we know who wears the pants.
Love is grand.
#126 Two-thirds — “Canadians less confident about economy: poll”
Interesting. A few days ago it was just the opposite — most Cdns. were feeling quite confident about the economy.
Another reason to ignore the m$m.
*
US debt anger Not an anger management course; CFR announces the Euro has failed, and Europe cannot save the Euro, let alone itself; Mark of the Beast and Mark of the Slave; PayPal One way the money junkies operate; Code, scan, trade and profit. A new form of insider trading; Chinese airlines refuse to pay EU carbonazi tax. Good! The tax is a scam; New Age of Elites and others; Europe The Liars Club.
Maximum Fraud in the Treasuries Dept.? New Legs on Comex stuff; SKorea ignores US sanctions on Iran; Euro stocks and US stock futures drop; BestBuy just opened in Kelowna, but is soon going belly-up.
*
Bill S-510 “This is the sort of thing the USSR used to do.” wrh.com, and what Canada has done with C-36; Fukushima Was it an act of war under the cover of an environmental disaster? Plus Shallow ‘Quake; 6:47 clip “Iran far stronger than the US admits”; SOPA’s won’t save a single job, and Sweden; Withholding info. of the wrong sort; Ron Paul A disaster (for Republicrats); GlaxoSmithKline fined over illegal vaccines.
1:37 clip Russia warns US not to attack Iran, or it trigger WW3 and Closing Straits? Govt. Waste How nice! They’re spending our money on killing us! Pix after Hiroshima was leveled; 10:20 clip NDAA is an act of war.
But why would you believe me anyway? According to you I have an agenda.
Here’s what you do JRoss… go back and read #133Homer on 01.05.12 at 4:51 pm
There it is!
Still, my offer stands; Feel free to contact me at [email protected] that we may arrange to meet and I can, as directed by you, gather in your presence those statistics you seek to prove me wrong. Again; they just are not there.
#138 Junius on 01.05.12 at 5:39 pm
Europeans do buy plenty of real estate in Canada.
They’re all over Vancouver Island.
As for the rest of Canada, I don’t know for sure.
#132 Stevenson wrote:
“To all renters, keep subsidizing other people’s mortgages please. We are different in Canada.”
You’re such a hopeless pumper. How many rent vs. buy calculators must be shoved through that thick skull of yours before you realize the folly of your ways?
Your comments are now borderline trolling. Seriously dude, any vestiges of respectability you might have had on this here blog is evaporating faster than Okanagan equity.
Whistler again! This means stupid strip mall Kelowna will be even worse.
http://www.whistlerquestion.com/article/20120105/WHISTLER01/301059977/-1/whistler/property-values-drop-again-in-whistler
WhistlerHomeowners can expect up to 15 per cent drop on 2012 assessments Real Estate
January 5, 2012
Homeowners in the Whistler and Pemberton areas can expect to see their 2012 property value assessment notices in the mail in the next few days — with most values dropping from last year’s levels.
It’s the second year in a row that the overall Whistler assessment roll dropped — losing a full $1 billion, or 10 per cent, since 2010.
“Most homes in the Resort Municipality of Whistler and in Village of Pemberton are declining in value compared to last year’s assessment roll,” Jason Grant, area assessor, said in a release. “Many home owners in both communities will see decreases in the zero to -15 per cent range.”
That’s compared to an increase of 6.42 per cent in total real estate value across B.C., according to B.C. Assessment.
Market value trends are affected by many variables, but some examples provided by B.C. Assessment show value decreases of up to $100,000 for single-family homes in Creekside and Whistler Cay, while a single family home in Alpine dropped by $46,000.
A sample three-bedroom townhouse in the Blackcomb Benchlands saw the biggest reduction amongst examples provided — from $1,940,000 on the 2011 assessment roll to $1,794,000 for this year
Max Keiser’s year end report ….
Max says UK will be the first Euro- Country to declare a bank holiday.
Also…Fractional Reserve doesn’t exist…..not even any money in the banks..its negative reserve….the SHTF…
China housing bubble about to burst.
Once the Sheeple realizes houses don’t always goes up the Sheeple thought patterns will look at housing differently
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9666000/9666589.stm
#155 TurnerNation
Re Whistler:
IMHO, anything that was ” Seasonal/Resort ” historically and ramped up development is toast.ie Ski Hills, Golf Courses etc.
My son works P/T at a Private Golf course and it is very slooowww. Many of these “old fart icons” won’t attract new members and will fold.
Those that got sucked into buying into such developments are hooped. Much of it was bought with bubble money, but what goes around comes around.
#102Canadian Watchdog on 01.05.12 at 1:08 pm
Perhaps they hired some old Enron accounting dept. employees.
#118 DonDWest
I’m not being sarcastic. I like the look of the house. If I was in the market for a million dollar house in the area that he is looking at which I most certainly am not, I would buy the house if I really liked it. He has the money. Why not? My family lives in the country on a 1.65 acre lot in a 2600sf house. I have 2 children. There is no way in hell that I would live in a 1200 sf house with 2 kids if I had 1.5 million dollars in the bank. The fact that he waited this long is ridiculous. This man is crazy.
#139 VICTORIA TEA PARTY – 2012 property assessment
Our Victoria assessment went UP $23k. No ‘improvements’ made to our ‘trusty little abode (in a very nice part of town)’.
Explain that??? Something doesn’t add up. I can PARP, but what a frickin’ hassle….
http://tinyurl.com/8xvh42q
http://tinyurl.com/82uzwvv
#91 Lizard
You go to the information gatekeepers: a realtor(tm). They can see previous listings for the address, even if they’ve been terminated or expired.
#94 Alistair McLaughlin
Bwahaha! Who cares if they’re insulted by your low offer. Tell them you’re insulted by their high price. People’s egos are so large and precious these days.
DA If real Estate tanks like we all think it will one of the first casulties will be available credit. The deals might be there but limited credit access will restrict the market even more. I purchased in southern ontario in march 0f 1993 at a 60% discount to the previous buyer but had to put 50% down to get a mortgage. Also the power of sale discount will ultimately be determined by the sheer volume of people in trouble, ie the banks may try to hold prices but will probably fail.
#145 observer
Actually you may be confused if you didn’t read it through. TREB went back and revised data all the way back to Jan 2010. Also if you look at the total revisions on the side of that chart you’ll how there is a consistent removal of around 200-250 listings. This is not a coincidence rather a moving average being applied on the data. I’ve gone through their data thoroughly and it’s definitely manipulative when you compare 2011 seasonally adjusted figures to 2010 unadjusted figures.
————————————————————
Some more on TREB’s 2011 sales.
Frequency of Distribution Sales Chart http://i42.tinypic.com/29pelhu.png
Total under 800k is 82,258 sales x median range $450,000 = $37,016,100,000
Total over 800k is 7,089 sales x median range $1,250,000 = $8,861,250,000
Therefore, homes sold over 800k roughly accounted for nearly 24% of total sales this year, meaning they also account for nearly 24% of TREB’s total average price. This is an estimate but it’s in that range.
LOL. Let’s have a bit of balance. Your 6% commission is theft anyways whether the person is in foreclosure or not. The owner also needs to spend fixing up the house and face legal fees as the process moves forward. Houses that aren’t spotless will not sell for top price, no matter what the comp says.
I know a bit about foreclosure in AB as I bought a couple that were going that way. The good deals are usually major fixer uppers and you need to get to them as soon as the Statement of Claim is registered and BEFORE the RE agents get involved. It’s a lot of legwork and expenses (pulling title, statement of claims etc).
Actually, a lot of people in danger of being foreclosed on will advertise on FSBOs and even Kijiji so that is another opportunity to look for motivated sellers. Again, a lot of leg work to find the right motivated seller that is also not delusional about how much his property is worth.
Finally, Real estate investment boards will have people that have done all the legwork for you, have the property under contract and will gladly flip it to you for a 5-10K fee. Most are rental properties that will more or less B/E. (maybe)
#153 eaglebay – Parksville,
Yes, I know. Europeans buy in Canada. Americans buy in Canada. Canadians buy in Europe and the US. So what?
What Alan, TRT and the pumpster band are trying to establish is that suddenly Europeans are rushing to buy Canadian real estate because they see it as a great place to park their money because “it is different here.”
My contention is that it is unlikely anyone on the planet outside of Canada is capable of believing that our real estate is not over priced right now. In particular, people from post bubble crash countries like the US, UK, Ireland and Spain. So some fools may rush in but not enough to have an impact.
#141 BPOE,
You said, “And what do tell is going to be the cause of such a drop.”
Maybe you might want to read Garth’s blog posts. Start with this one and read back about 600 days. That might be just enough to get you thinking.
#166 Mr Lahey,
wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the pumpers propogated that line. Imagine our almighty leader arranging a fiscal and real estate crisis to capture the loot of those getting out at the top or avoiding the market entirely. Conservative voters should have no problem believing it.
Good thing they don’t know that the Man has quietly been acquiring all rental real estate in Canada to adminster a double whammy to his suckers.
DA–sorry to burst your bubble you tool but all you post on here is a bunch of BS–there are plenty of foreclosures listed on the MLS system–you just have to look–many many more that just linger–with no buyers –just as there are no buyers for much of the present listings-
the only myths on this blog come straight from your blog posts–and you call yourself a realtor–i highly doubt it
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11183327&PidKey=-1993645741
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11314580&PidKey=1835329420
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11209653&PidKey=-1686569614
BPOE completely failed to read the point of The American. That is nothing more than a map of ASSESSED VALUES. It has nothing to do with real market values which are now in decline. The point is we are all being TAXED ON VALUES THAT ARE GREATER THAN THE WORTH OF THE PROPERTY, you f*cking moron BPOE.
And for any of you wondering, yeah I probably do have a slight crush on The American. He calls it like it is and his writing has a sexiness to it. Take me out for a drink sometime? ;-) I rarely if ever find that I disagree with his take on things. BPOE said The American is Schiller, then claimed he’s a Realtor, now claims The American works for the US Government. What the hell. The only inconsistency I see is what BPOE has to say. He’s a snaky turd.
Vancouver properties are sitting longer. Just look out your windows folks! Prices have definitely come down on condos on the market and homes are sitting longer too. Listings are WAYYYYYYYYYYYY up. Only one way for it to go and that is DOWN DOWN DOWN.
Renting and have the nice things. Enough cash to spend on whatever else without going into debt. We just bought a bedroom set and the spouse thinks the boxspring and mattress is too high. High as in height.
I’m 6 ft and it comes up to my waist. Comes to the navel in my spouse. Spouse can’t reach the floor when sitting on the edge of the bed, but neither can I. I don’t mind that though. I’m about 6ft and she’s about 5 inches shorter.
In my opinion; it’s just perfect. A lovely Kingsdown set.
Four year old kiddo can’t get to the top of the bed to watch movies or TV without a boost or without the use of a step stool (reminder to self; enroll kiddo in climbing school).
Hard decisions for me! Gotta decide whether or not to get a third flatscreen (no debt incurred to purchase it, but don’t want to spoil the kid) for the son’s bedroom so he can watch it from his bed. This would prevent having to risk climbing onto our bed and possibly falling from it. No concern about the falling though as he would probably just bounce when he hit the floor. (just joking, he knows how to get down, even in a sleepy state.)
A Renter’s delima! Help me please! Spouse wants to change the boxsprings to the low profile ones! I don’t.
#161 Timing is Everything,
I can explain that after a bit of experience in Ontario. Your problem is the location “in a very nice part of town”. Property Assessment corporations (whether in BC or ON) use real statistics to track market movements, Land Registry records and not what is cooked up by real estate boards. A few higher sales in your neighbourhood and your individual property value rises proportionally. You are lifted by the neighbourhood, not just by what you do to your property. The same thing should happen on the way down.
What people fail to realize is that it is not the assessment corporations who are the problem, it is the denizens of city halls. Assessors are “revenue neutral” in the real sense. All they do is determine and advise the current assessed values of properties. There is no reason for them not to be objective, and their databases and procedures are getting better all the time. If they made a physical error in assessing your property, they will back down. It is city halls who need ever-increasing revenues and higher taxes because they cannot control expenditures without disappointing someone in their political or financial support bases, which amounts to political suicide for municipal politicians.
Beat up on your municipal politicians rather than your property assessors
#61
What you are saying about inflating property prices rings true here and for the property that Tony is interested in at Larkfield. This is mostly a chinese professional neighbourhood and the property that Tony desires was listed at 749,000 in July/2009.
#176 Herb – Beat up on your municipal politicians
Understood. And the buggers have the ‘mill rate’ to play with at their discretion. I have no idea if it is worth my time to appeal as I don’t know, percentage-wise, what my property tax will be.
Another point, if I appeal, the assessment could even come out higher. I’m not about to ‘open a can of worms’. I’d rather beat up municipal (Corporate) politicians.
#175 Ballingsford,
The Doctor is in.
Don’t be an idiot – change the blessed boxspring! (Kingsdown is great, by the way, have slept on it for years.) And save the kid’s intelligence by not buying a third flat screen.
That will be 5 cents.
89 DA – your advice is actually just the opposite I got from BC assessment. Though I pleaded my case on the different assessed value of similar homes to my own, a recent appraisal is what the board accepted. They told me their goal was to determine the market value as close
as possible. They still re-assessed higher than the appraisal because they said the value was increasing at 2% a month in a red-hot market.
When I said that I was still well above the other houses they assured me “Don’t worry, we’ll get them”. Oops…
153 E-Bay – I agree.
Geez I hate coming late to the blog…..damn career….
reminds me when we looked in 1988.. saw almost 100 listing.. two failed inspections.. had clause saying I must accept report as acceptable.. they do not see it.
one I bid on the agent refused to take my offer to seller!! One vender sent me a racist letter.
other offer one never had response.
found vacant house without agent on market for one year needed some work but got it 10% below low asking. we put 40% down paid it in 7 years
it is same size as one featured but on more land. what I would not pay over 550K ..after inspection approval.
best advice is hire an architecture firm for expansion of your house so it does not look like some botched jobs I have seen and will be able to sell it faster if you want. get bonded approved builders, and pay as they meet deadlines.
Someone is using my name which is April. #172, 173, 174 is not me- April from New Westminster, BC.
Mr. Lahey on 01.05.12 at 8:53 pm
In what month’s edition of Toronto Life? I read the Jan 2012 issue (long since recycled – it’s kind of a rag).
I do not recall a mention of Garth…
And that you do not see the flaw in your argument with them and me independently it is no wonder you lost.
The number of “short sales” for lack of a better term in light of the fact that a “short sale” is not possible in Canada as it is the U.S., would make your head spin. The thing of it is poco, in Canada these are sellers who bought at the peak of the market over financing to the point that now in order to sell those sellers have to bring a cheque to me which is placed in trust pending the completion of the transaction so as to ensure the transaction will not be frustrated by a lack of funds. My point poco, these sellers are actually doing this… they are mustering the financial resources to bridge that gap. That they can says a lot of Canada compared to the US where the indebted homeowner can just walk away from the deal.
The number of sellers who are writing a cheque to cover the “short fall” is well more than the number of foreclosures in this country. Being the brainiac you are surely you can figure out the rest of the story. Of course you can’t but then to be true my comments were not really intended so much for you as to inform the more intelligent readers anyway while slagging you.
There are lots of foreclosures in Victoria. Look a repodepo.com or look for the owner to be the bank.
Another way to determine if the unit will be going into foreclosure is to look at older units that have a dated sale and a big mortgage that is coming due.
I’ve had great luck that way. Ask a lot of questions! That is the key.
Bloomberg: Canada’s Jobless Rate Rose for Third Consecutive Month in December to 7.5%
Canada’s unemployment rate rose for a third month in December, the longest advance in two years, as a gain in jobs trailed growth of the labor force
Canadian Watchdog… don’t they state on the TREB website that they reserve the right to go back and “revise” the data, for some reason or another? That right there for me, nullifies any meaningful conclusions to be drawn from the data that is admitted to be fudged. Is there any law that requires them to publish their data? I don’t think so. What is the purpose then? Obviously, it’s a marketing ploy, mind control.
183 DA – where is the flaw? Even the appraisal compared my house to some of those others, and arrived at a
similar value to them. And I did “win” about half the
difference I was claiming.