Deal with it

When this week started indigent visitors to this pathetic blog roasted me for saying Canadian house prices would decline by 15%, then go limp. Too little!, they cried. As the week ended, hoary posters raked me for saying financial investors can earn 6% income. Too much!, they wailed. So I’ve decided to put everyone out of their misery. I’m taking the weekend off. Deal with it.

This, of course, doesn’t mean I am backing down. I’m just tired of trying to get the same message through to people who wear Depends on their heads. Maybe it’s the times, or perhaps my apocalyptic personality, but the air around here is thick with mistrust, misconception and revenge. Seems a core group of people are more interested in seeing others toppled than in helping themselves. They want HouseAgeddon, leading to crashing bank towers and blood on Bay Street. It ain’t gonna happen.

But I won’t get into this. I’m on strike.

In fact, I’ll purposefully fail to mention that the International Monetary Fund now backs me up. The world body said this week Canadian house prices are overvalued by 10%, and a correction even of that size would be a major economic event, cutting consumer spending and dropping the GDP half a point.

“Adverse macroeconomic shocks, such as a faltering global environment and declining commodity prices, could result in significant job losses, tighter lending standards, and declines in house prices, triggering a protracted period of weak private consumption as households reduce their debt. The effects on economic growth could be exacerbated by weaker external demand and slowing construction activity,” they said.

What does this mean? Simply that it won’t take a 50% plunge in real estate values to wash consequences over millions of families. Rather, a correction of 10% would be more a catalyst than a conclusion, paving the way for years of crappy markets, falling values and gaping opportunities for investors with the stones to buy.

In fact, the IMF says if house prices do plop by 15% (my guess) at the same time commodity prices weaken, the economy could contract by 2.5% over two years. And remember, it was a 2.6% pullback in 2009 that cost America fourteen million jobs. As a result, Canada is being urged to mandate higher downpayments and adopt far tighter mortgage regs.

Those people who want house prices to drop by half, so they can buy one, might as well hope for heart disease so they can avoid retirement planning. But I’ll refrain from commenting on this moronic view, since I’m legally withdrawing my services.

In fact, I’ll also be refusing to discuss the lame comments from people who think getting 6% on their money must involve selling dope or hiring Bernie Madoff. It’s hard to underestimate the subliminal impact of [email protected], and the way we’ve been conditioned to see anything not offered by the thinly-trained suit at the local branch as drenched with risk.

The irony is people who refuse to buy a piece of the bank (in terms of equity, bonds or preferreds) think nothing of putting all their money in the bank. They actually believe if one of the Big Five keeled over the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation would make them whole again. Worse, they feel that by avoiding risk and stuffing cash into do-nothing GICs or the vacuity of the Orange Guy’s shorts they’ll be secure even when returns are negative after taxes or inflation.

Of course, the greatest risk is not losing money, but running out of it. A lesson few learn. Until they run out.

As a consequence of my boycott of this blog, I will therefore not be discussing the massive advantages of yield-producing assets, such as preferreds, REITs and trusts. Nor will I refer to a new report by Macquarie Research listing 50 of these suckers and their yields (Bell Aliant 6.7%, Artis REIT 7.8%, Crombie REIT 6.6%, Inter Pipeline Fund 5.8%, Retrocom REIT 8.7%, BMO or CIBC 5.0%). I won’t detail the benefits of collecting dividends, claiming the dividend tax credit, and paying 80% less tax than on a GIC.

It just won’t happen. I give up. You’re on your own.

My traditional Amazonian Christmas is on.

267 comments ↓

#1 Van guy blazin kush on 12.22.11 at 10:15 pm

Foist!!!!

#2 curious! on 12.22.11 at 10:17 pm

Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays Garth and everyone else here.

Now what will I do for my late evening blog reading?!

#3 TurnerNation on 12.22.11 at 10:18 pm

Memo from Blog Dog Carney

To: All federal department staff

Re: Increased amortization rumour.

Please be advised we will no longer be accepting calls or inquiries from

G. Turner
Garth Tee
G. Tee
Mr. G.T.
G. ‘Jay’ Turner
Gartholomew Turner
Garth Turnerberg
Garth Turnerstein
Garth Tunerblum

(Simpsons and Chevy Chase fans will gets both jokes wound into this one; Homer’s aliases banned from Quickimart and a hospital scene from Fletch).

#4 MarcFromOttawa on 12.22.11 at 10:26 pm

Big nuts Small nuts everyone’s nuts nuts

#5 Nick on 12.22.11 at 10:30 pm

Lot of warns on actual overpriced Canadian Housing market…

Also today, TD bank:

“Accordingly, sales are expected to fall by 2.4% next year and 3.5% in 2013, while prices will suffer average declines of 1.9% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013, Ms. Gulati says.

TD estimates prices are over-valued 10 to 15%, though that is expected to drop over the forecast period.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/22/get-ready-for-housing-market-correction-td/

Considering all recent warns, it will be not a surprise if Canadian Real Estate average prices drop 20%-25% (maybe more) over the next 3 years.

First buyers must avoid Canadian Real Estate for the next 3-4 years.

#6 rosie on 12.22.11 at 10:39 pm

Beware a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

#7 Montrealer on 12.22.11 at 10:40 pm

in the report, what means “If that should happen, the IMF said it would be “appropriate” for federal and provincial governments to return to temporary stimulus spending to brake the fall.”

does that mean more interest rate cut? that would be foolish

(taken from http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/63296–imf-warns-about-canadian-household-debt-says-house-prices-overvalued-by-10)

More spending. — Garth

#8 Stinky the Fish on 12.22.11 at 10:42 pm

Have some nice time off Garth. Well deserved. I don’t think house prices will go down 50 per cent in my city. I can almost buy a cookie cutter house in cash now. Just kinda wanted to get a discount on a house but I’ll take 15 per cent.

The key is to increase salary and save money where I can. Don’t buy sh-t I don’t need, eat a sh-t load of chunky soup, crack those cans open and have a party.

I’ve saved all this cash, not in my thirties yet, the funny thing is after 1 year of following this pathetic blog, and real estate blogs, I don’t even feel like buying a house anymore.

#9 Tony on 12.22.11 at 10:43 pm

Merry Holidays, Garth. Don’t let the Grinches get you down. Little Susie Who is waiting by the tree with your milk and cookies.

#10 JohnSaccy on 12.22.11 at 10:43 pm

Thanks for being rational, Garth.

Rest of us are driven by emotions and have an “I know it all” attitude.

Wish you a merry Christmas!

#11 raider on 12.22.11 at 10:45 pm

Enjoy your holidays.

Nooo boycott! Now I have to watch Max Keiser and read Karl Denninger to get my bi-weekly economic edutainment…. Instead of enjoying Garth’s hands-on, entertaining and (more) common-sense posts ;).
Unfortunately people are a lot more cautious with praise than with dishing out criticism. Therefore the perception of doomers and bullion-lickers reading your blog is probably skewed.

#12 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.22.11 at 10:46 pm


#3 TurnerNation — Good choice of names! I like a mixture of Gartholomew BeefcakeAmazonTurner!
*
Never mind Garth. Try suggesting to William Tell to point the bow at his own head, and see what the end result is. There is a slim chance he might miss, but if he doesn’t, prepare for the fallout.

Dorothy, Bandit and you may like to try this site for some well-earned R&R (not sure about Bandit).

I’m off my rocker for a few days in conjunction with everyone else, so enjoy a great Christmas and a terrific New Year to all!

#13 waiting on 12.22.11 at 10:48 pm

Merry Christmas Garth,
thank you for all your insight, wisdom and goofy photos. Enjoy your well deserved break and we’ll try to be good and not wish for real estate armageddon …

#14 City Slicker on 12.22.11 at 10:48 pm

15% off the top will cause panic and speculator to head for the door, which in turn will cause more panic selling.
Thats where I feel a deeper impact will be felt. Maybe this won’t translate into blood and intestines in the streets, but atleast shut up those saying why are you renting instead of buying.
Merry Christmas Garth!

#15 Stinky the Fish on 12.22.11 at 10:48 pm

I’d like to see the faces of the debt mongrels that I buy the house from (and laugh). That would give me ultimate satisfaction.

Did I mention I am disgusted by people holding excessive amounts debt? It makes me sick. I want a period of deleveraging now and the rate of consumption to drop. That is the best present a man could ask.

Consumer confidence dropped again significantally. This is the metric everyone should look at, especially the question about making big purchases

#16 Jackie on 12.22.11 at 10:49 pm

Happy holidays. Best wishes for you and your family.

#17 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.22.11 at 10:54 pm

“God Bless Us Everyone! (“Tiny Tim”)

A 10 per cent cut in real estate values averaged across this great land, in and of itself, sounds “controllable” or “doable.”

What it actually is, is the straw that breaks the real estate camel’s back.

So what if real estate takes a hit. It’s happened before and it’ll happen again.

It will have an economic cleansing effect that will set us up for some upside later on, throughout the economy, although it won’t seem like that once the fan has been joined by the other stuff.

To take advantage of that “later on”, consider, right about now, purchasing some bank shares either directly or through a variety of closed-end mutual funds or ETFs.

Garth is right about this.

What he’s saying to you, via his magic decoder ring mumbles, is that these are the best of times for investors to either own or contemplate owning the shares of good traditional Canadian banks and utilities, as just wtow examples, that have seen it all economically over the decades, and whose managements are rejigging and reloading prior to their next “hunting expedition” for further market opportunities.

Check companies with the lowest P/Es and go from there. Make sure, as Garth has pointed out before, the moving averages of these firms; their resistance and other levels. This is easily accomplished by looking up the stocks and checking out the technicals appended.

For those potential home buyers. Just wait, as I’ve mentioned earlier this week. Your time will come.

Hope for increased interest rates in the new year, especially. Because higher rates put more credibility and balance into securities trading in the various markets. Low interest rates pervert the process and stiff way too many of the vulnerable.

Lock ‘n’ load!

#18 Mean Gene on 12.22.11 at 10:54 pm

Interesting report by TD Economics published today and supports Mr. Turner’s analysis.

http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/sg1211_housing.pdf

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS:
A YEAR IN REVIEW AND A LOOK AHEAD

Gradual unwinding of the over-valuation in house prices across the country

#19 Min in Mission on 12.22.11 at 10:58 pm

Of course, the greatest risk is not losing money, but running out of it. A lesson few learn. Until they run out. – Garth.

Not just a risk, but, a great fear for many of us!!

Merry Christmas, enjoy the Amazons!

#20 Bill Grable on 12.22.11 at 10:58 pm

I would think a course called Money, should be mandatory in High School.
I have supposedly clever friends, using leverage that would scare Gordon Gekko. A welter of dewey eyed suckers are paying, or were, paying a grand a square foot, for apartments with a 15 year shelf life, and ridiculous monthly maintenance fees. Instead of saving for retirement, or having a cushion against illness, these folks go ‘ all in’ with their brilliant RE investing skills.
I can’t convince my boomer buds that debt is something that is to be avoided and it is time to think like Mr. Turner – invest carefully.
And last note. Will the marooons wasting our time yelling First…go back to your Nintendo or Playstation.
Thanks.

#21 Tim on 12.22.11 at 10:59 pm

A ten percent correction won’t faze most homeowners, except those who have bought in the last two years. Most people who have owned for even 5 years have seen increases of over 50%

#22 Tim on 12.22.11 at 11:00 pm

Preferreds are not a good buy now, you’re better off in conservative dividend paying stocks

If you crave volatility. — Garth

#23 Josef on 12.22.11 at 11:06 pm

FIRST!!! OH YEAH BABY!!!!!

#24 Alan on 12.22.11 at 11:06 pm

Let’s see, a 10 percent decline brings us to home prices of just 18 months ago. I don’t remember anyone complaining.

BTW, TD report states Eddy and Calgary RE to go up not down. Vancouver could be poised for a correction BUT, it may not happen due to projected demand at 2%

Please read the report before you comment. BNS also had a similar and I laughed my butt off when I read the re-gurititated piece from the IMF. They should stick to lending money to third world dictators and bankrupting countries.

#25 Van guy blazin kush on 12.22.11 at 11:06 pm

Merry Xmas Garth and this Pathetic blog. And have a shitty new year!! (that’s if you’re a flipper or specker)

#26 comfortably numb on 12.22.11 at 11:06 pm

Garth, believe it or not, there are some of us that are grateful for this “wretched blog”. Over a year ago my wife and I decided to sell our house and invest the proceeds. Year to date we are up 6.5% using an advisor who believes in the same investment principles that you do. When I mentioned this to my aunt (realtor) and uncle (retired CEO) their response was that my advisor must be involved in some sort of ponzi scheme. LOL !!
Keep up the good work and Merry Christmas.

#27 ex bc boy on 12.22.11 at 11:07 pm

well, I guess theres only one thing left to say. Merry Christmas everyone!!!

#28 Paul B on 12.22.11 at 11:08 pm

Merry Christmas Garth. Have a good break you deserve it.

#29 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.22.11 at 11:08 pm

Merry Christmas!

Garth – why not at least plug your books a bit as a replacement for this blog during your “boycott”?

All of the basic investment advice that you repeat on a daily basis are in Money Road.

#30 S on 12.22.11 at 11:09 pm

Most of the rants posted here are from those poor at math and/or who have mental disorders. You should create a mental proficiency test in order to post on this blog. I have found your advice very useful and a good counter to CBC/Vancouver Sun/Global et al.

#31 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.22.11 at 11:11 pm

One reminder to everyone with self-directed investments — the last day to sell for a gain/loss is Friday. (look for a bit of a down day on the markets because of this)

#32 Real on 12.22.11 at 11:19 pm

Your not so helpful suggestion was very thought provoking. If you are truly going the way of going silent, thank you for posting almost everyday with your valuable posts..
Wish you a Merry Christmas and a great 2012 !!

#33 Smoking Man on 12.22.11 at 11:23 pm

Have a good one Garth all the best to the family.

Thanks for this site we have had lots fun here….

#34 ottawa pete on 12.22.11 at 11:26 pm

Many of you don’t think interest rates will rise much for some time. Perhaps you will be correct, but consider this scenario: Europe gets its’ act together and implicitly guarantees the high interest bonds from the PIIGS et al. Money will naturally flow (gush?) to this safe high yield and Canada and the U.S. will have to offer competitive yield hence bond interest rates will rise. My guess is they will rise somewhat dramatically. Fixed term mortgage rates will therefore rise … perhaps somewhat dramtically. Thoughts? Devore?

p.s. Where is my favorite poster ‘Industrial Guy’?

#35 Derek R on 12.22.11 at 11:26 pm

Garth, a Merry Christmas to you, Dorothy, Bandit and the Amazons. And a Happy New Year when it comes.

You’ve given us a lot to think over during the last 12 months and you deserve a break. So relax and enjoy the holiday season. Don’t worry about us. Oh, and any time you need a standing ovation in Calgary, I’ll be there in the audience to give you one.

Thank you.

#36 a prairie dawg on 12.22.11 at 11:28 pm

duh?

“The Canadian housing market is at risk of a price correction and remains the chief domestic vulnerability to the country’s economy in the new year, according to two new reports…”

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/22/housing-correction-big-risk-for-canada/

#37 DodgedBullet on 12.22.11 at 11:29 pm

Merry Christmas Garth.

Merry Christmas everybody.

All the best for the new year.

Ben.

#38 OttawaLuke on 12.22.11 at 11:32 pm

I have been following your blog religiously since mid 2009 and am grateful for your free financial advice. I have been steadily building a war chest for the day I become a first time buyer.

A six percent return is easy to do even in these volatile times and I don’t understand why others have difficulty accomplishing this. I am young and prefer a fair bit more risk than preferreds offer so I take the contrarian route recently gobbling up as much U.S financials and RIM that I can get my hands on. God bless the TFSA.

Merry Christmas Garth, your advice is appreciated.

#39 Jas Girn on 12.22.11 at 11:33 pm

Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!! Come back Garth!!! :(

Merry Christmas anyway :)

#40 a prairie dawg on 12.22.11 at 11:33 pm

#5

how dare you… lol

#41 Victor on 12.22.11 at 11:35 pm

Merry Christmas to you and your family Garth.

#42 radio free OJ on 12.22.11 at 11:35 pm

Merry Christmas Garth! Thank you for your entertaining insights, killer photos and valuable advice. Most of us don’t say this enough, but we appreciate what you are doing.

#43 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 12.22.11 at 11:36 pm

RETURN ON CAPITAL VERSUS RETURN OF CAPITAL

The yield of some REITs is 50% from net income and 50% from depreciation.

The depreciation represents return of your money as opposed to return on your money.

Eventually a building owner that spends out all the depreciation and does not set any aside for renovations is left with a charred husk of a building.

In other words giove we $10 million and I can easily give you back 10% or $1 million per year. But after ten years there is mothing left.

Think about it…

Many REITs are over-priced you may be paying $1.50 for $1.00 worth of real estate. Is that smart?

If an investor wants a continuous income stream as opposed to capital growth, it might be. — Garth

#44 The Original Dave on 12.22.11 at 11:39 pm

Take some MATH classes complainers!!!!!!!!!

I can’t believe Garth has had to explain the 15% this many times. It’s nuts.

Not every market is going to get hit with 15%. Some might stay the same, some places might even gain. There are spots that will take a much larger dip.

I believe Toronto and Vancouver will see a significant drop in prices. Yes, more than 10% and more than 15%.

#45 a prairie dawg on 12.22.11 at 11:46 pm

#22 Tim

So what are your financial credentials?

You’re a CREA member? lol

Put up or shut up!

#46 Xindai Shan on 12.22.11 at 11:47 pm

I am now really convinced that I am the “ greater fool-idiot-dumbass. When my wife and I arrived in Toronto, we hummed and hawed about buying ~2500 square foot house in Etobicoke – about .5 km north of Richview Collegiate on a pretty good street. The price in January of 2007 was 439K and it wasn’t moving. Fast forward to now, and you can’t get a similar house in the area for less than $769K – and that would be the low end of prices in the neighbourhood. We had the ability pay about $300K in cash at the time – we were in our late 30s and making very good money.

We sat on the sidelines, reading this blog and books about, “The Troubled Future of Real Estate” and basically wallowed in self-deluded ignorance. A 15% cut in housing prices is immaterial for the vast majority of Toronto buyers in the last decade given the gains in housing. A 15% cut MIGHT take Etobicoke SFH prices down to the summer of 2010.

My wife and I are lucky to have skills and experience (engineering doctorates) and lots of savings, so we will be fine unless inflation explodes. Barring economic catastrophe, we will probably be able to retire while we can still enjoy life. However, I don’t think we will own a house until we retire – with houses being modestly priced where we come from.

It is a difficult to swallow knowing the house you could buy five years ago has damn near doubled.

This blog did not exist in 2007. If you want to revel in regret, blame yourself. — Garth

#47 Devore on 12.22.11 at 11:51 pm

Rather, a correction of 10% would be more a catalyst than a conclusion, paving the way for years of crappy markets, falling values and gaping opportunities for investors with the stones to buy.

Stones, and cash. Even though there are some screaming deals down south, no one is buying. Why? Not just because it’s uncool, but for the same reason prices are down: they have no money, and no one wants to lend it to them.

Those here hoping to be doing some vulching in the future better have fat bank accounts.

#48 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 12:00 am

Merry Christmas captain Garth! Just want to thank you once again for coming to the FASTPGFBDCParty and leading us in the hoedown, giving out free books and completely destroying Carney and Ron Paul in the debate. Bubbles, Ricky, Julian, et al, wish you a merry Christmas as well and thank you for gracing our humble trailer park last weekend in a party for the ages!

#49 not 1st on 12.23.11 at 12:01 am

15% decline in RE – I am fine with it. Not expecting 50% and won’t wait for it.

6% return on dividend bearing stocks – yup, totally doable.

Its the year after year 15% return that Garth said is easily possible is where I call B.S.

#50 Bill Gable on 12.23.11 at 12:05 am

Merry Christmas and happy Chanukah to fellow Turnerites. My wish for you is that 2012 is the best year of your entire life.
Cheers!

#51 Harlee on 12.23.11 at 12:07 am

All I know about buying is that I bought a bottle of rum the other day and on Friday I’m going to buy the egg nog to go with it. Then I’ll really be in the Christmas Spirits. Should do me right into the New Year.
Trusting everyone will have a good holiday,whatever they may be. Have a good rest Garth and will read you and your “pathetic blog” when you’re back. Sometimes it’s very educational,it’s always entertaining.
Now,for awhile no more worrying about debt,or ETFs,or house horny couples…Just have fun!

#52 Victor on 12.23.11 at 12:07 am

Housing correction big risk for Canada
Tim Shufelt Dec 22, 2011

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/22/housing-correction-big-risk-for-canada/

#53 South of 49 on 12.23.11 at 12:11 am

I tried finding the Macquarie Research report on my own – but no luck. Give me an early Christmas present and post the link, please.

Thank you.

#54 Amarillo on 12.23.11 at 12:12 am

Thanks for the timely message about adrinkin’ and adrivin’. Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to the dawgs and Mr T. Have a well-desrved break Garth.

#55 Maxamillion on 12.23.11 at 12:14 am

Merry Christmas Garth.

#56 Devore on 12.23.11 at 12:14 am

It is very unlikely owners occupiers will sell their houses after a 15%, or even a 50% pulback, as long as they can keep making the monthly payment. The vast majority will not be heading for the hills, or the nearest basement. A far more interesting question is what will specuvestors do, especially with all those condos?

#57 Popeye The Sailor Man on 12.23.11 at 12:23 am

Does anyone have the link to this report that Garth referred to?

“refer to a new report by Macquarie Research listing 50 of these suckers and their yields “

#58 martin9999 on 12.23.11 at 12:23 am

I’m taking the weekend off. Deal with it.””””’

please dontt!!

#59 nonplused on 12.23.11 at 12:25 am

Happy Amazonian Christmas Garth! May you and the girls have a good one! Thanks for all the advice.

I’ll be taking the weekend off too.

#60 Waterloo Resident on 12.23.11 at 12:26 am

Merry Christmas Garth !
And a happy new year to you and your family too !!!

:-)

#61 Debt's Dark Embrace on 12.23.11 at 12:28 am

Along with IPL, you could have mentioned Crescent [email protected]%, Pembina @5.10, and Veresen @6.6%. I pigged out on all the above in 2009 when they were paying 9 and 10%.

#62 Angela on 12.23.11 at 12:30 am

Merry Christmas, Garth. Thanks for being there to lead the blind through these tumultuous times.

Some of us do get it and aren’t focused on the numbers as much what comes next is going to be very bad for many people, especially those who refuse to help themselves.

#63 Unistar38 on 12.23.11 at 12:32 am

Merry Christmas to Garth and all!

Happy Holiday!

#64 Controller on 12.23.11 at 12:36 am

Merry Christmas, Garth, and thanks, from all the Air Traffic Controllers in Vancouver that read and discuss on a regular basis. We’ll make sure that Santa gets direct routings to everyone’s over valued houses with none of those pesky ATC delays.
And to all a good night.

#65 Andrew Smith on 12.23.11 at 12:36 am

Hi Garth

Sorry to hear you’re feeling down. I found your blog (which I feel is far from pathetic) about a week ago and have been reading it backwards ever since.

I am a super risk intolerant guy and that’s why all my money is in savings accounts, but even though I don’t yet know what else to do with it: you’ve convinced me that it will be wasted if left where it is now. ( http://littlesvr.ca/grumble/2011/12/22/save-your-money-impossible/ )

I hope you will get some R&R and decide that writing your posts is a good thing for you and for thousands of readers, despite some of the comments. I hope that will happen because I have a couple of questions that I haven’t seen your answers for yet, and I’d like to email them to you in case they’re worthy of your interest.

Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts, and I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

#66 jonni on 12.23.11 at 12:38 am

“But I won’t get into this. I’m on strike.”

*******************************************

Ahaaaaaaaaaaa …. Sir Garth of Turner has “prorogued ” THE blog. Well done Sir Garth. You have now established yourself firmly with Sir Stephen of Harper ( as a matter of fact is that not your true beginnings ). Small man … Small mind is Sir Stephen …. where is the exalted Sir Garth ? ( guess I’ll just take my puck an go home )

Merry Christmas to the 99% and f^$%^ the rest !!

#67 BPOE on 12.23.11 at 12:41 am

Canada Lording over the world. America left in the dust
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/12/19/on-top-of-the-world-2/

#68 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 12.23.11 at 12:43 am

Thank you for your highly readable, brilliant writing and all your good knowledge and advice. I have learned a lot while being entertained at the same time. Merry Christmas to you and your family and your Amazons. Enjoy your well-deserved break.

Thanks also to the many fellow readers who have shared links to other interesting articles, stories and information.

#69 HDJ on 12.23.11 at 12:56 am

I’m sure you’re correct in pointing out that a 15% drop in real estate prices would result in an economic contraction of 2.5%. Is there a simple explanation for why the dramatic increase in real estate prices during the last decade failed to cause equally dramatic economic expansion?

#70 Industrial guy on 12.23.11 at 1:00 am

I don’t put a whole lot of stock in anything the International Monetary Fund has to say. You just have to look at the IMF’s shameful history in Africa and the Caribbean.

An economic contraction of 2.5% would turn S W Ontario into a greater disaster area than it already is. Think Newfoundland after the collapse of the fishing stock.
The recession of 2009 has not ended in the manufacturing sector. GM Ford and Chrysler still sell crap, but it’s now assembled in Mexico. The salaries of new auto workers jobs in the USA and Canada are now at McDonald’s level wages.

Entire sectors such as metal stamping and die casting are virtually gone in Canada. Their machines long sold at auction to foreign buys and exported overseas.
Globalization was supposed to raise the world’s standard of living. Not reduce ours to the third world and create a pan endemic of unemployment and underemployment.
Your prediction of a 15% reduction in real estate prices across Canada sounds very reasonable. Of course in some parts of S W Ontario, we are well past that already.
A search on http://www.mls.ca for houses less that $100,000 in the Windsor area will return you the following: “Your search returned too many results. please refine your search and try again.”
Scary, isn’t it?

#71 45north on 12.23.11 at 1:10 am

Merry Christmas Garth

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXh7JR9oKVE

#72 Neil on 12.23.11 at 1:20 am

Merry Christmas everyone! I for one will try to enjoy time with my family and friends to get over the blog withdrawal symptoms! :)

#73 Groovin123 on 12.23.11 at 1:26 am

How about coffee or liquor? Boring, unsexy, ignored – nice return.

LIQ.T – 7.3% on a chain of private liquor stores.

SCU.T – 9.8% on a chain of coffee shops in business since 1975.

ZHY.T – About 7.5 – 8% or so. An ETF that is a porfolio of high yield corporate bonds.

Of course there’s always gold… 18% annual return since 2001.

Whatever you do, diversify. Please.

#74 Capilano on 12.23.11 at 1:31 am

Bring back Garth! Bring back Garth! Bring back Garth!

#75 Sleepless in Vancouver on 12.23.11 at 1:39 am

Garth, I think you should qualify your prediction for the level of price decline as a Canada-wide figure. As has already been well publicized on this blog there are parts of BC that are now off up to 30% and a 50% correction in Vancouver is not without precedent.

A 10% correction nation wide on average (let alone a 15% decline) would be a disaster. But then, it is always a disaster when a bubble pops; there are just different degrees of misery. There have as you know, been different degrees of utopia (delusion).

Vancouver’s Kool Aid is one hell of a lot more potent than the average Canadian swill. I predict our hangover will be proportionately more mind-numbing.

#76 jaymel on 12.23.11 at 1:42 am

Garth, thanks for the blog. I am happy to finally find a place where I can send people to hear the other side of the news when they get tired of me ranting. Merry Christmas

#77 Peter Goesinya on 12.23.11 at 1:43 am

“More spending. — Garth”

And gold goes up!!! :)

#78 GregW, Oakville on 12.23.11 at 1:47 am

Merry Christmas Garth! And everyone else.

#79 Mister Obvious on 12.23.11 at 1:49 am

Obvoiusly… time for a little break, eh wot?

Best holiday wishes to Garth and all the blog dogs

(Yeah, even the irritating ones).

#80 Mel on 12.23.11 at 1:56 am

IMF cannot have it both way. On one hand, it is talking about high debt, and then it tells government to go out and spend. Not too much spending mind you. How can that be accomplished today with already high debt, boggles my mind. Oh well!

In terms of dividents. Sure, why not! But you also must tell people that today’s payouts might be lowered in the coming years. If you also believe that stocks are overvalued considering that world economies might enter recession next year, then you might be looking at much lower stock prices also.

Thus, you might loose on the value of your share, and lowered dividents. I rather wait for shares to drop before I will buy any divident paying shares. Mind you, I own some from the past. I still hold them today.

Concerning our Banks, I still believe they should not be owned as of yet. In the future, sure! But, I first need to know how they will be impacted by all that debt that people carry.

Anyhow, Garth I know you own this blog. It’s yours, and I respect your opinion. Having said that, don’t be so ‘ my way or the highway guy’. Many opinions are irritating, but that is what it is. Life moves on!

Merry Christmas, and a very Happy New Year!

#81 Jsan on 12.23.11 at 1:57 am

It’s amazing how you can find one article after another from back around 2005 (see link below) talking about the US housing Bubble and about how prices will slowdown but not fall. They all seem to paint the same rosy picture about how homeowners can’t continue to expect 10% plus annual gains but also that they should not be worried as prices will continue to appreciate but at a slower pace. BOY WERE THEY WRONG!!!

Everyone can try to guess where house prices will end up but it is after all, only a guess. The easiest way in my opinion to price the value of a home is by using the Century old tried and true method. That is you should not pay more than approximately 3x your household income towards your housing costs. This includes mortgage payment, property tax, utilities, insurance and maintenance costs. If you have to pay more than you are overpaying. There, simple!!! Follow that rule and you should have an idea of what you should allow yourself to spend and it should also give you an idea to where prices in your range need to come back down to. My guess is quite allot farther than 10%.

April 11, 2005
After The Housing Boom

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_15/b3928001_mz001.htm

.

#82 Wicked as it seems on 12.23.11 at 1:58 am

Happy Holidays BIG G you deserve them my man.
Thanks for a years worth of knowledge and entertainment, you finally broke down and gave us a few recommends hints, nice!
You are totally responsible for me sending this mail from Goa, India where I live off the mini fortune of selling my dung at the top in June 2007 in Victoria. The dam thing needed a 100K in fix ups and the fool still laid down 680K making my life oh so much Shanti Shanti. Your Karma is complete and expect a higher consciousness in the next life!

#83 Jsan on 12.23.11 at 2:04 am

To add to my above post, it’s from the US so the mortgage Tax Deduction does not apply to Canadians however it is a good article suggesting how much you can truly afford. When you read it you will realize that a huge chink of our population are way over their heads in mortgage debt. Don’t join them!!

“How Much A Month Can I Afford in House Payments?”

http://www.ifitbreaks.com/afford.htm

.

#84 daystar on 12.23.11 at 2:05 am

Our economy has been propped up by housing ever since Harper took power. Yes, the Liberals propped up housing through RRSP’s and a gradual loosening of CMHC regs but Harper did it through CMHC regs back in 06′ and there was drama (40 year nothing down mortgages, remember those?) Lets remember wisely that housing currently now represents 20% of our GDP and has for some time. When the building slows due to crumbling valuations, what will be the consequence?

Banks here are trying through media to engineer an orderly correction before interest rates rise, that is what seems to be happening here and one really has to pause and ask why that is. Are the numbers worse than we thought? Did the race to high valuations overshoot? Did we borrow our brains out? Did, more accurately, a select percentage of the population (first timers, naive buyers, buyers in outrageously high value locations such as Vancouver, Kelowna, Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto and the condo market) overexpose themselves to even the slightest of rate hikes?

Its got to be worse than one initially thinks when banks try to engineer a correction through media warnings, especially when their bread and butter is real estate. Are they pushing for mortgage holders to lock in, is that our bankers angle? Do they sense cheaper rates for some time to come and want to make money on the spreads between central bank rates and term rates… is it greed that motivates them to warn of household debt problems? Or is fear around the corner and lets digest what the IMF is saying for a moment. Did they give a timeline for their 10% decline possibility? Was this to happen over one year? 2? 5? If it was to happen over one year, GDP would suffer more than a half a point for sure, it has to, housing is 20% of our GDP!

The very idea of the IMF suggesting governments spend more if GDP drops is also something to think about. This means more public debt and at some point, the taxpayer has to pay, its a question of when and how? Either higher taxes or higher interest rates later on or both (and generally, its both). So… whats the IMF’s angle in this, more bonds issued out of Canada and who benefits there, foreign bond holders? … yeah. Paper over household debt with public debt and watch the bond markets take rates to Italian heights, we’ll just stretch it out over a few years or more so no one will notice. How very smart.

Common sense dictates that government policy has engineered high housing valuations for a decade now, but its been quickly and unnecessarily accelerated by the Conservatives and all one has to look at to see it are household debt to GDP ratios over timelines as well as our total mortgage pie doubling since Harper took over power to a whopping 1.1 trillion in combined mortgage debt. Add lines of credit and other mortgage related debt and its over 1.5 trillion. Over $ 530 billion worth of mortgage debt has been freshly created mortgage debt spun by a government who has done everything it could to push valuations higher until this spring and even then it could be argued that CMHC didn’t go far enough tightening the rules. 20% of our GDP comes from housing, mostly borrowed. The IMF encourages governments to paper over our household debt problem with public debt with assumed foreigners to be the lenders and how can higher interest rates in the years to come help the problem? We can kick the can all we like, but there will be years of reckoning.

Here’s my own prediction based partly on the U.S. example and their history of interest rates as well as their household debt to GDP ratios before their housing emplosion along with Canada’s little issue of oversupply. I’m calling for a 25% housing correction over 5 years and a 7% drop of GDP over 5 years phased in from our unsustainable 20% of GDP coming from housing dropping to 13%. Next year drops a mere 2 or 3% (our banks are hoping for this, no shocks) but is accelerated beyond most people’s expectations from a rise of interest rates towards normalized rates in 2013 and rates keep climbing from there.

2012 – 2% drop
2013 – 5% drop
2014 – 4% drop
2015 – 6% drop
2016 – 8% drop

Its the last year, 2016 that hurts the most and 2017 won’t be pretty either. Think of what this means for mortgage holders. Interest rates didn’t crash til’ the first quarter of 09′. Mortgage holders could be locking in 5 year terms or floating from “emergency” rates into a higher interest rate trend come late 2013, early 2014 and beyond, locking into new 5 year terms higher than before for what could be a full 5 year span of higher rates where no mortgage holders walk through unscathed. Debt will crush the middle class Canadian and shatter the lives of those who lose their jobs, potentially as high as 8% of the population over a 5 year span beginning really, in 2013, 2014. Construction and housing won’t save us but instead, hurt us. Its boom and bust commodities that is our hail mary now. Will it be enough, or will commodities fall short and with unmanagable consumer debt cut consumer spending to its knees?

Public debt caused by a decade of undertaxation and red ink will hike interest rates predictably as public debt swells through this period and accelerates as we move to the end of 5 this 5 year period. Its a prediction that is too easy to make really, along with its consequences. The only thing that could throw me off is if interest rates don’t rise until 2015 and I just can’t see that happening, its 2014 at the latest and possibly rising in 2013 but I can’t see rates rising next year so what does this set up? Again… 5 years of renewing 5 year terms into higher rates beginning in 2014. How can that be good for housing or Canada’s economy?

#85 Trailer Park Boys on 12.23.11 at 2:11 am

Yeahhh

Listen to Garth…..it ain’t rocket appliances.
I shorted jalapeno futures.

#86 The Dividend Yield Investor on 12.23.11 at 2:11 am

I did a quick and simple comparison of the average house price to the average rental cost both in the Toronto area. With the Average price of 465,369 divided by the average yearly rent of 15,864 = 29.3 time rents. IMHO (OK, not so humble) if anyone thinks that a 15% or especially a mere 10% decline is truly the optimist.

A 20% to 30% decline is more in the offering; Yes, double the stated amount as presented on this very well respected blog.

Here’s my quick and dirty links for my data.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1102443–toronto-house-prices-hit-new-record

http://www.settlement.org/sys/faqs_detail.asp?faq_id=4001280

The Dividend Yield Investor
Atlanta Georgia

P.S. Does any one have better numbers to determine price to rents?

#87 Trailer Park Boys on 12.23.11 at 2:15 am

Oh yeah….Christmas…..

I think we should send Garth funny pictures so he can post them and a joke book for his staff of writers.

#88 TheRealTruth on 12.23.11 at 2:15 am

Baby Boomers:

You built Medicare, Pension Systems OAS/GIS on the backs of younger generations. You will get the benefits from money borrowed from the future. But… the tide is turning and the younger generation will start to fight back.

If you want those benefits to remain, then:

1) Wealth taxes must be implemented and raised. Income taxes must be reduced. Tax wealth at say 1% a year (RE?). Boomers had the advantage of rising RE prices, stable jobs, etc. Workers will not stand for higher taxes. Your benefits will be limited very soon!

2) If the above isnt going to be implemented, maybe introduce a Yearly Medicare Premium based on age! The older you are, the more you pay. Sounds fair to the younger generation! This will eliminate the age bias…yes the bias!

#89 The Thing in the Basement on 12.23.11 at 2:36 am

Merry Xmas Garth, and many thanks for hosting this pathetic blog.

#90 Irish Economical Refugee on 12.23.11 at 2:47 am

Merry Christmas Garth, keep up the good work & have fun with the Amazons!

#91 mark on 12.23.11 at 3:00 am

Another thing that many do not consider is if that, for those who are gainfully employed, if they DRIP some of those nicee dividends from REITS, Preferred ETFs or Utilities, or even the beaten indexes, they get inherent compounding via share accumulation

#92 Smell The Coffee on 12.23.11 at 3:18 am

Boycotting your own rant.

Now that’s rich.

#93 Jane24 on 12.23.11 at 3:31 am

Merry Christmas to all from rainy but warm Britain where the daffodils are already out so actually it’s Spring!!!

Many thanks Garth for not only wise words but great entertainment in 2011. A lifetime ago I was a TO realtor for many years and I can smell the coming drop from here.

It is coming as Canadians have simply run out of money and their confidence is shot. No-one buys a house when their neighbour just go laid off. The time to sell was 2011 indeed.

#94 Off the River on 12.23.11 at 3:32 am

Merry Christmas Garth! Thanks for all the work you do.

#95 Michelle on 12.23.11 at 3:48 am

Season’s Greetings to everyone!!! Even the annoying people :)

#96 kilby on 12.23.11 at 4:11 am

Merry Christmas Garth:
Hope you are doing some road trips in 2012, I have some good friends in Victoria and Vancouver that would enjoy your presentations. And thanks for keeping all of us thinking about where we are going, both the adventurous and the conservatives all can get something useful out of the discussions. I know that the young “execs’ at our local North Vancouver Credit Union now start their days with the “Greater Fool’
Kilby

#97 Robin on 12.23.11 at 4:47 am

Garth:

Do you have a link to the aforementioned report from “Macquarie Research?”

Why do people doubt a 6% return? Buy an equity with a 5% dividend and a history of increasing their dividend and 6% will seem low in a few years.

#98 Zed in Geneva on 12.23.11 at 4:47 am

Garth, I wish you a good rest, unbelievable the enerny you put into this blog. Every day!
I own some of the companies that you mention today and this is the reason that my portfolio is up 4% this year while the markets are all down. I only get 5.1% as a dividend yield on my portfolio, not your 6% but a start, but this provides me with of lots of comfort and pleasure when these dividends come in.

#99 gtrz4peace on 12.23.11 at 4:50 am

Happy Holidays to Garth and all on the blog!

#100 These pretzels are making me thirsty on 12.23.11 at 5:13 am

Definitely more noise in the press about a RE downturn.
People do not realize it but a 10 percent downturn from this height easily wipes out 70-100K in equity…and then some,
We have all seen GREED at work, FEAR will be worse.
Hold tight ladies and gentlemen!!

#101 Tony on 12.23.11 at 5:26 am

Re: #31 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.22.11 at 11:11 pm

The individual investor is long gone from the market. That was back in the 1980’s. With all the investments institutional nowadays bias on the Friday won’t come into play.

#102 Canuck Abroad on 12.23.11 at 5:43 am

“…the air around here is thick with mistrust, misconception and revenge. Seems a core group of people are more interested in seeing others toppled than in helping themselves. They want HouseAgeddon, leading to crashing bank towers and blood on Bay Street…”

Okay, I will share with you why I want blood on Wall Street (Bay Street is not material globally – sorry Canadians). The Wall Street banksters’ FRAUD was 100% responsible for the entire 2008 crisis which we have not recovered from. A sort of pseudo-recovery was “created” with lots of cash channelled to the still-bankrupt banks via TARP, QE1, QE2, and lots of other programs. The European banks bought all Wall Street’s crap fraudulent securities and now they are bailing themselves out with LTRO, which is just more cash going to the banks.

We have never come out of the 2008 crisis which was entirely due to Wall Street FRAUD. Obama has recently said they cannot prosecute it because what the banksters did was technically legal (but unethical). Nonsense – fraud through and through, and the current US government is ignoring it because they don’t want to upset the fragile “recovery”.

Then we have the MF Global theft, which Garth you recently pointed out “could not happen here”. But thats not really the point is it? The point is that 1.2 billion of client money was seized by banksters unknown, there is no indication it will ever be repaid, and futures traders world over (except in Canada, says Garth) now have to be nervous.

I will start to relax about the the financial markets when I see banksters being paraded across my tv screen in orange jumpsuits and handcuffs. Since this is worse than the S&L crisis, I don’t think I’m being unreasonable to demand mass arrests.

Rant over. Really Garth, how can you honestly expect anyone to trust these markets? How can you not be angry yourself?

#103 Habbit on 12.23.11 at 6:47 am

Thanks for the great year here Garth and best wishes to you and your familly. You are very much appreciated.

#104 Kip on 12.23.11 at 6:51 am

THe International Monetary Fund? More idiots calling for the death of Canada as we know it but the little beaver just won’t die. Be careful the little beaver doesn’t bite you in the ass!

The IMF may as well be a snake oil salesman. They have missed the mark on the Canadian economy almost as much as you Garth. Birds of a feather, flock together.

Merry Christmas to all

Kip

#105 Keeping the Faith on 12.23.11 at 7:36 am

Great post Garth, keep your head up.

I just calculated my return for this year and I was easily over 6%, closer to 10% actually.
You can’t teach common sense or intellectual curiosity.

Chalk it up to idiocy.

Happy Holidays!

#106 Alliston on 12.23.11 at 7:43 am

Debt free going into 2012. Thanks for all the free advice in 2011. Happy Holidays and Merry Amazonian Christmas :-)

#107 Cow Man on 12.23.11 at 7:45 am

Garth:

Thank you for a wonderful year of entertainment and conveyed knowledge. May Santa bring you a Senate appointment for Christmas.

#108 grouchpeach on 12.23.11 at 7:51 am

Thank you Garth for all of your help this past year and before that too! I wish you the merriest of Christmases and all good things in 2012! We are seriously excited about the upcoming move and appreciated your guidance on that more than you can know.

And to all of the blog dogs – Happy Holidays to all of you too! You certainly provided me with many hours of interesting reading and some good observations too!

#109 Onemorething on 12.23.11 at 7:59 am

And Garth is now conservative!

#110 David B on 12.23.11 at 8:13 am

On this Christmas Eve before Christmas Eve … A very Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year to all.

This year saw our world population reach 7 Billion! Every one as to eat, sleep and go to the bathroom and that alone is worth a few trillion dollars, having said that 2012 will bring fortunes to many just like it did in 2011.

#111 HappyPlace54 on 12.23.11 at 8:22 am

Merry Christmas, Garth, and best wishes for a great New Year.

#112 cliffard on 12.23.11 at 8:28 am

The imf backing you up then that totally settles the issue once and for all.I mean wasn’t that what everybody was waiting for what a joyous and timely christmas gift thank you garth you are a sweet kind and delightful christmas guy

#113 househornyhousewife on 12.23.11 at 8:40 am

“The thinly trained suit !!” I love that expression, thank you for that. I have been looking for something to call those guys .. that’s exactly what they are. They spout off the same crap that their colleagues and their company office tells them to spout off and God forbid they should actually think for themselves with their own little brains. I used to work in a chartered accountant’s office back when I was a grunt (when I thought this life was for me and before I saw the light and left it) and I know exactly the kind of corporate culture that those trained suits come from .. lemmings !

Are you really that surprised, Garth, that people are only looking to see others fail miserably ? The mass public lives to see others fall. The majority of people do not appreciate what they have and envy the belongings others. The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence to them and this is why most people are never happy. Why do you think they are still spending like there is no tomorrow ? They are trapped in a constant struggle, running after what they can never achieve through spending .. confidence in themselves and a lifestyle that brings personal satisfaction. They think that that new house or car is going to give them that when the problem isn’t what others have or what they themselves don’t have .. the problem is IN THEM.

You are absolutely correct about the Canadian economy shrinking in the near future and indeed people will pay with job losses and debt misery. Unfortunately, this is what HAS to happen in order for us to get past this period of history and move on. It will change our outlook on the future and the way that we live … ultimately for the better, even if things look bleak now. Think of it like being forced to start a long overdue diet .. our fat economy needs to shrink in order to become healthier and more efficient in the future.

All of those people who refuse to listen to you are still doing so … they are simply in denial so you will have to forgive them for that. Wishful thinking on their part is just way too strong to resist.

HHHW

#114 Bewildered on 12.23.11 at 8:48 am

Garth take a pick for the coming year.

Floating Rate:
Perpetuals:
Rate Reset:
Retractable:

#115 Incubus on 12.23.11 at 8:53 am

@#86The Dividend Yield Investor on 12.23.11 at 2:11 am

Price to rent ratio:

http://canadabubble.com/charts/canadian-home-price-to-rent-ratio.html

When you see a ratio of 30 time the annual gross revenu, it means a really big bubble. Rental housing sell around 10 times the annual gross revenus. For a duplex you can go around 12 or may 15.

So this number of 30 means 50% over evaluation. To return to the normal, price has to drop by 50%. We are far from a little correction of 10%.

#116 fancy_pants on 12.23.11 at 9:02 am

a holiday break Garth? or feel you are just preaching to the choir now? or feel you’ll never get your message across to the misfits? Just wondering b/c you are finally starting to see fruition of your warnings.

Merry Christmas and thanks for your diligence maintaining this blog day after day. Hope you have happy holidays hunkered in the bunker with the Amazon women and family (in no particular order).

#117 House on 12.23.11 at 9:03 am

I guess you and Jamie Dimon still think that it is as simple as “people just hate the rich”. Maybe in the new year you will get it too.

#118 Kevin on 12.23.11 at 9:13 am

@T.O.Bubble Boy:

One reminder to everyone with self-directed investments — the last day to sell for a gain/loss is Friday. (look for a bit of a down day on the markets because of this)

But if everyone knows people will be selling on Friday, generating a “down day,” then why wouldn’t they sell on Thursday to beat the drop? And of course, knowing that many people will do just that, wouldn’t the smart ones actually sell on Wednesday, instead? And the REALLY smart ones will see it coming a mile away, and will have sold on Tuesday, right?

Do you see where I’m going with this?

Markets are efficient. Any gain or drop on Friday will be entirely due to the usual random noise and black swans.

#119 JayDee on 12.23.11 at 9:14 am

When I saw the news yesterday about what the IMF predicts, I smiled and thought of you.

#120 Herb on 12.23.11 at 9:18 am

You mean I will be deprived of reading about the evils of socialism, the Liberal Party and public servants over Christmas? That’s a lump of coal, man!

Have a great holiday with Dorothy and Bandit. And when the withdrawal brings urges to kick Bandit, just reach for the crackberry and we’ll help you deal with it.

Peace on earth [fat chance] and goodwill to all [temporarily], even those who hate socialism, the Liberal Party and public servants.

#121 bigrider on 12.23.11 at 9:24 am

By 2013 to 2014 , interest rates will be higher.

You will then be able to get 4 % + easy on a 5 year GIC.

Bye ,Bye all the obsession with dividend paying equities and preferred’s, hello [email protected]

#122 TurnerNation on 12.23.11 at 9:32 am

If this weblog shutters then the “terrorists” (realtors(r)) have won!!!! ;-)

#123 Rob .T on 12.23.11 at 9:36 am

I watched HOT PROPERTY on CP24 last night, I almost threw up. 40k new condo units in T.O, and they said “it’s not enough. We need more. Interest rates will stay low. You should buy now before prices keep rising”
All the best Garth, merry Christmas.
P.s. You contradict yourself about the metals markets, but let’s not get into that today. CHEERS!

#124 GARTH !!!!explain to me how you can be so Optimistic on 12.23.11 at 9:40 am

BABY GARTH, you know the saying evil things happen when good men do nothing, You have done your share, unfortunately the timing hasn’t been spot on, nobody figured out what Harper has done to us, but they will soon enough.
I think you are to optimistic, I read your blog and others daily and you are positive compared to others,
Jim Sinclair, Max Keiser, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Mark Talibi from the rolling stone magazine, Mish shedlock and watch RT news the only real news now, ironic it is based in Russia. I also go to KING WORLF news, 24hrs gold, and Silver Bear Café, all of these guys have been spot on for the last ten years, WE ARE IN TROUBLE, they could have paid everyone debt in the USA and that would have been a small fraction of the money they printed, too much Fraud out there and too much lawlessness for the top 1 %, biggest crash in the markets and nobody in Jail, I read that the New York stock market has two computers close to the exchange selling million of shares in a fraction a of a second, 70 % of the trades are from the robots , and the rest 30 % is EVERYBODYS PENSION MONEY< YOU GET IT , Everyday 100 million dollars is stolen from the pension funds and other mutual funds IN THE NEW YORK STOCK MARKETS, IT IS A RIGGED CASINO, that is the peoples money , soon we will all find out what this has been all about, FUC—EN GREED. That Is why I say to you Garth you are correct in your investments strategy, but NOW with THE MF GLOBAL, the casino is rigged, AND THE Obama GOV HAS ALLOWED THEM TO STEAL IT WITH NO PROESCUSSION, BE VERY SCARED MY FRIENDS and even if you make a good bet, you will still be ripped off. WE ARE TRULY DOOMED.
I believe that Max Keiser has it right, if anybody wants to see what happened to Argentina in 2000, go to the Utube video, IMF and other like Goldman Sacks, ran that country into the ground and stole all the country's natural resources wealth when they nationalized it, all the people could do is go on the streets and bang pot and pan together to get some attention.
Did anyone see the law passed by congress allowing the military to hold anyone prisoner they deem a terrorist, arrest their own citizen all over the world and send them to jail without a lawyer representing the people or held in detention for whatever time the y want, no fair trial, no one held accountable. WOW THE USA IS SCREWED.
The John F Kennedy shooting is clear in my mind who did it and why. Executive order 11110. The feds have killed the country and the people, What remains to be seen is WHAT WILL THE US CITIZENS DO NOW, ROLL OVER OR REVOLT, buy silver would be a peaceful way of doing this, and removing your money from the big banks.

I believe what we have here is Harpers way to bankrupt us, 40 yr o down mort. was the nail in the coffin, his next move was to increase CMHC to 1 Trillion dollars coverage, and then allow the house prices to go to the roof, what happens next, a huge correction will kill us all, good move HARPER, you followed your orders perfectly from your USA masters, yes your name will go down in history, as the beady eyed weasel you really are, never trusted a man with you arrogance and scamy eyes.
The other point that I want to make clear is, GARTH you are being way to optimistic, I think we are screwed.
All I can think of is the US citizen are the only ones that can save us all, and WHERE ARE THEY THE LAND OF THE BRAVES????????????
Too much fraud in the system, MF global the newest example, mortgage fraud ROBO signing, Wall Street rigged casino with their super computers etc……..
Wow we are living in interesting times.
I believe that it is time to crash some of these big F___EN banks, sorry it's time to crash JP Morgan, if everyone bought some silver, I mean everyone, and it could start with the Occupy Wall Street gang, then when everybody see the huge flow of physical silver out of the COMEX then it will snowball until JP Morgan short position is killed, and take your money out of the big banks.
THE FED IS NOT A FEDERAL ENTITY: it is a bunch of private banks that are stealing from the US citizen, why can't they see this.
In Canada, there is a Utube video about the same thing with Canada, in 1976 we allowed private banks to issue our money….WHY IS THAT SO, we have many natural resources explain to me why we cannot issue our own currency, why do we need private bankers to issue Canadian currencies.
We need to take back our country, a few years ago there was talk on the net about the AMERO dollar, but Canada was the throne in their plan, there is no way we would go for it, but cause a crisis and then we will follow, and here we are now, Europe is screwed because of the CDO and other debt derivatives created by BLYTH MASTERS< that has killed all of the world, Europe is not the only ones affected by this craps that was made by the big banks,
PLEASE EXPLAIN TO ME HOW WE CAN HAVE 800 TRILLION DOLLARS IN DEBT DUE TO THE DERIVATIVES.

Sheesh. Now I need a shower. — Garth

#125 eaglebay - Parksville on 12.23.11 at 9:56 am

#88 TheRealTruth on 12.23.11 at 2:15 am

The weak kneed socialists and tree huggers have voted for these programs as your generation of entitled morons is doing.
Now that I was made to pay for all this I will certainly take advantage of these programs.
In the spirit of Christmas I will not call you a loser.
Now get to work. Your tax money is needed.

#126 Nemesis on 12.23.11 at 10:00 am

“But I won’t get into this. I’m on strike.” – Hon. GT

;)

http://tinyurl.com/dbgc6h

#127 dd on 12.23.11 at 10:06 am

The ECB just announced a $700billion + “loan” to the bankers in the Euro zone. More money printing. Commodiity prices and such will not go down much, in fact they will do the opposite. More paper chasing the same amount of goods.

Higher inflation (10%) will be coming very soon.

#128 bob's my uncle on 12.23.11 at 10:13 am

With the IMF getting on the wagon that is a sure sign of a RE increase in 2012, it will be another disappointing year for the patrons of this blog.

#129 CountryLover on 12.23.11 at 10:17 am

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you Garth and to all of the people who regularly visit this blog. I have been reading this blog every day for about 2 years and it has really had a positive impact on my financial habits. I have learned so much and want to thank you Garth for what you do for so many of us.

If anyone wants to have a bit of fun over the holidays, check out your latest MPAC assessment (if you own a home) and do the compare properties to me search. I was interested in the value of properties north and south of us and this tool tells you the current assessed value and what they paid when they bought. I could not believe that my neighbor paid $230K more than us only 2 years later, their home is nicer maybe, but not that much nicer. Very interesting reading and it reflects the huge run up in prices after 2005.

#130 rower on 12.23.11 at 10:24 am

Merry Christmas Garth, Dorothy and Bandit!

Enjoy your “strike” and know your blog is very much appreciated.

Merry Christmas to all the blog dogs. Thanks for all the laughs. They are sorely needed in a world of bad news.

#131 Randy on 12.23.11 at 10:34 am

Not sure how i got here, anyways..

#132 Devil's Advocate on 12.23.11 at 10:35 am

#197comfortably numb on 12.22.11 at 9:23 pm
#184 Devil’s Advocate

“it’s just money”

That’s hilarious…when it’s my $500,000 it’s just money but ask a realtor to take a cut in his commission and listen to the whining begin…

And who doesn’t dig in their heels when faced with the prospect of being paid less than agreed?

But I never “whine” numbnuts because the sort who tries to renege on what they agreed to pay is not the sort I want to deal with in the first place. So it’s best, as I so often find, to just rip up the agreement and both go our separate ways.

#203McLovin on 12.22.11 at 10:27 pm
DA why are you still here spinning your bullshit?

I thought your took your Remax sign and left for good. I really thought this was the last time you would be be here.

Give us all a great Christmas present and get lost for good. We don’t need your useless pumping. You have been discredited so many times its stunning that you are still here.

PS – Kelowna is a smoking crater that gets noticeably worse by the month and you know it. So seriously beat it!

I’m not feeling the love McLovin?

So sue me for breach of promise.

Discredited? I don’t see it that way Lovey-Dove. I see it as my having been, thus far, unsuccessful in teaching you.

Kelowna is most definitely the last place you would ever want to live in Canada – that is for sure. In other words: After moving to Kelowna you soon learn there is nowhere else in this country you would rather be so if you want to improve your location you must look outside this country. Problem is McLovin, do that and you will soon learn what a great country Canada is.

The biggest problem we have in Kelowna is the lack of ability to sustain the hordes who want to live here.

Merry Christmas McLovin. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good day. };-)

#133 Tom from Mississauga on 12.23.11 at 10:45 am

Tough to call exact decline. 15% seems as good a # as any. The heart disease thing, hilarious. Here in Mississauga I just hope the economy holds together though whatever is coming. The consumer and the province are both tapped out at exactly the same time. I’ll still need a job to get the house I’m lusting for.

#134 Ronaldo on 12.23.11 at 10:48 am

#86 The Dividend Yield Investor – “P.S. Does any one have better numbers to determine price to rents?”

I can tell you that on a brand new 1200 s.f.home near Red Deer the ratio is around 11%. A far cry from the 29.3% you speak about. This market peaked in 07 and dropped about 15% and has been stable for quite some time now. Not expected to drop much from this point given the high demand for rentals and improving economy.

#135 chris on 12.23.11 at 11:09 am

Thanks for the blog. I enjoy reading it daily. Your humourous approach to the sickness that is our financial system is refreshing. You should run for election again. I hear the Liberals are looking for some competent people to help rebuild the party and by the time the Cons are done your old riding will be begging for you to return.

#136 Scott on 12.23.11 at 11:13 am

Happy Christmas, Garth! Thanks for the generous insights and libidinous photography!

#137 Brew on 12.23.11 at 11:40 am

@124

Sheesh. Now I need a shower. — Garth

NO sheet!

#138 disciple on 12.23.11 at 11:45 am

I’m trying to deal with it… I don’t know what I’ll do with myself while you’re on this boycott of your own blog… no, I don’t need any suggestions, thanks… one quick question before you go: For a given stock, why does market capitalization not include the volume of preferred shares?

#139 John on 12.23.11 at 11:46 am

You try to help people…but as the saying goes: “No good deed goes unpunished”.

Have a good break!

#140 disciple on 12.23.11 at 11:48 am

If you go to Globe Investor’s stock filter, and Select Security type as “ETF”, and then click on “$ Change” or “% Change”; and you’ll get Dividend Yield column. Some of these Horizons yields are scandalous. They are covered calls… does anyone have an opinion on this investment scheme?

#141 Snowboid on 12.23.11 at 11:49 am

Many thanks, Professor, for helping us realize some dreams and teaching us real estate has its’ place in a portfolio, but not more than 1/3.

The best to you and your family for a great Christmas and an even better New Year.

Our traditional Arizonian Christmas begins tomorrow.

The Boid of Snow

#142 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 12.23.11 at 11:57 am

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/housing-after-bubble-bursts.html

“As explained in “Housing, the most manipulated market in the world”, housing bubbles are mostly created by government.”

“INTER-GENERATIONAL INJUSTICE

The main beneficiary of housing bubbles, which lasts many years, is the previous generation. The younger generation becomes poorer. It is a massive transfer of wealth from the young to the old.”

#143 arctodus on 12.23.11 at 12:04 pm

Sheesh. Now I need a shower. — Garth

But I note that you did’nt answer the man?

#144 poco on 12.23.11 at 12:26 pm

Oh DA you are so easy—–that last definition was totally opposite from what your previous post said
might i suggest you go back a few weeks and read over some of your posts -(you know — before you had a hissy fit and swore you’ld never come back)—you contradict yourself over and over again—still delusional as ever

#145 stage1dave on 12.23.11 at 12:35 pm

Couldn’t agree more…cognitive dissonance at it’s finest. I remember reading in the latter part of 2008 that 94% of mortgages in the USA were still performing…look at the tumble that begot.

Peoples’ psychological outlook will do them in before any housing devaluation catches up to their (lack of) financial planning.

#146 O Ryan on 12.23.11 at 12:35 pm

Wishing everyone here a safe and happy holiday.
I will be in the Mayan riviera for the next two weeks and when I get back I want to feel peace love and harmony on this pathetic blog.:)

#147 KingBubbles on 12.23.11 at 12:41 pm

Happy Holidays

#148 Hakuna Matata on 12.23.11 at 12:53 pm

Thanks for the racy pictures, bad attitude and different perspective.

I don’t always agree, but I always appreciate – Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

#149 Victoria on 12.23.11 at 12:56 pm

We all must remember – those of us in Victoria are safe. The RE President Dude said so.

Merry Christmas!

#150 jess on 12.23.11 at 12:59 pm

#70 Industrial guy

The Pujo Committee 1912- 13

…. The report revealed that a handful of men held manipulative control of the New York Stock Exchange and attempted to evade interstate trade laws.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/34121180/Pujo-Committee-Report-Report-of-the-Committee-Appointed-Pursuant-to-House-Resolutions-429-and-504-1912-1913-Pujo-Committee-Report

Pujo Committee “Money Trust” Wall Street Banking Cartel Investigation 1912-1913
http://publicintelligence.net/pujo-committee-money-trust-wall-street-banking-cartel-investigation-1912-1913

=

http://www.truth-out.org/would-you-blow-whistle-many-say-yes-perils-abound/1324486765

False Claims Act. Abraham Lincoln instituted this law in the 1860s to try to ward off defense contractors from selling bad equipment and sick horses during the Civil War. Lincoln literally deputized the average citizens by allowing them to sue on behalf of the government if they had direct knowledge of fraud, and the citizens (called relators) shared in a percentage of what was recovered by the government. If the government intervened in the case, the reward was usually lower than if the relators took the case through the courts themselves. However, if the government intervened, there was a much higher chance of a monetary recovery.

The False Claims Act (31 U.S.C. §§ 3729–3733, also called the “Lincoln Law”) is an American federal law that imposes liability on persons and companies (typically federal contractors) who defraud governmental programs. The law includes a “qui tam” provision that allows people who are not affiliated with the government to file actions on behalf of the government (informally called “whistleblowing”). Persons filing under the Act stand to receive a portion (usually about 15–25 percent) of any recovered damages. Claims under the law have typically involved health care, military, or other government spending programs. The government has recovered nearly $22 billion under the False Claims Act between 1987 (after the significant 1986 amendments) and 2008.[1]
=

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/Specials/Rebuilding_the_financial_sector/Spotlight_on_banking_secrecy/US_tax_ultimatum_has_Swiss_banks_sweating.html?cid=31812788

#151 bill on 12.23.11 at 1:02 pm

merry christmas everyone
see you next year……

#152 bill on 12.23.11 at 1:07 pm

GARTH !!!!explain to me how you can be so Optimistic on 12.23.11 at 9:40 am

he is optimistic because he is taking some time off from the blog….

#153 Grampa Hindsight on 12.23.11 at 1:16 pm

Garth fear not !!!
Just to let you know there are hoards of people who listen and take your advice ,..and rarely make any comments!

I think they are hidden a silent majority
Merry Christmas

#154 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 12.23.11 at 1:25 pm

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE MASSIVELY HIGHER IN CANADA THAN IN USA

Yerterday our American Cousin Peter NYC showed his obvious intelligence by saying:

Dear investorsfriend
Your analysis is completely correct. (music to my ears and eyes)

This was in reference to my post yesterday at 152 where I detailed that Americans can lock in a 30-year mortage rate of 3.9% (with the ability to refinance or pay off early) while Canadians can get a 25 year locked in rate for more than double the cost at 8.75% (with no ability to refinance if rates go lower).

In detail I said:

Not only is the 30-year fixed U.S. rate massively lower but I understand that borrowers have the right under insured mortgages in the United States (in most or all States) to refinance if interest rates drop and only pay relatively small fees. Interest rate differential penalties DO NOT APPLY (at least in many or most cases to my understanding). This is why refinancing of United States mortgage were so much in the news over the years as interest rates fell. Borrowers saved massive amounts. I believe it was investors in mortgage backed securities who in effect lost money because their high interest investments got paid out early.

NYC Peter said:

“The reason is Canada historically had a less developed long term bond market than the USA. It was seen as higher risk. USA leveraged its status using gse entities to securitize the entire mtg mkt and sell it off to (sucker) foreigners. Today the gse entities back a majority of the mtg market. Welcome to socialism USA style.”

***************************

Well actually as of yesterday the 30-year government yield in the USA is 2.98%, Canada was actually considered LOWER risk and is at 2.50%. And Canada must take exception to any suggestion that we are not a socialist country. We too have a government sponsored entity to subsidise mortgage insurance.

We have CMHC.

I believe if our banks issue CMHC insured loans they can securitise those and sell to investors at yields not much higher than the government yield. Let’s say 3% for CMHC guranteed 30-year mortgages.

So why is this not happening?

Why can’t the banks securitise these and also with the provision that the mortgages are allowed to be paid off early at a small penalty. Investors would likely scoop that up at 3 to 3.5%. And if Canadian invesors don’t take that deal, let American or Norwegian investors have it. (It’s a global finance market)

Something is vastly wrong when Americans with the help of Fannie Mae can lock into 30-year rates at 3.9% (WITH refinance privledges) and Canadians must pay 8.75% and get no refinance privledge. Our rate should be LOWER given the lower government bond rate and the lack of refinance ability.

Something is vastly wrong and I have never even seen the financial press ask about this!!

I have written to CMHC and the Canadian Bankers Association to ask.

Meanwhile does anyone have a clue why this huge difference exists?

#155 torontorocks on 12.23.11 at 1:30 pm

Merry Christmas to all. Garth, thanks for your crusty self and Smoking Man, a couple of posts ago when you were lit outta yer head and drunk, had to be the funniest posts I had ever read in a long time, on this blog or elsewhere.

I hope you all get what you need…

#156 a prairie dawg on 12.23.11 at 1:33 pm

A Realtard© Christmas carol

The Little Dumb Boy

Dumb, they told me, pa rum pum pum pum
A new born mansion to see, pa rum pum pum pum
Our finest granite we bring, pa rum pum pum pum
To lay before CMHC, pa rum pum pum pum
rum pum pum pum, rum pum pum pum,

So to oversell him, pa rum pum pum pum,
He’s so dumb.

Little baby buyer, pa rum pum pum pum,
I am a poor boy too, pa rum pum pum pum,
I have no downpayment to bring, pa rum pum pum pum,
That’s fit to ease the sting, pa rum pum pum pum,
rum pum pum pum, rum pum pum pum,

Shall I offer for you, pa rum pum pum pum,
You’re so dumb?

The buyer nodded, pa rum pum pum pum,
I’ll be in debt a long time, pa rum pum pum pum,
We dumbed it down for him, pa rum pum pum pum,
We cashed the cheque from him, pa rum pum pum pum,

Then they smiled at me, pa rum pum pum pum,
Another deal done.

#157 Harvard Grad on 12.23.11 at 1:34 pm

Merry Christmas to Garth and his followers…

I was commenting on the fact with a friend that the EU will not solve it’s debt problems unless the Germans personally gurantee the debts of those nations that threw caution out the window and lived on the hog..and its so rich how poorer nations are now pointing fingers as to say that Germany gained at their expense..what a load of BS…

If we had a North American pack, and Mexico had 40% of its population in the public sector and free university education plus a early retirement status…how many Canadians would agree with helping them…that’s right, ZERO!

We live in interesting times my friends, thank-you Garth for providing an excellent Canadian source for people to vent and learn. I would like to extend an additonal hello to all those who hated my handle and made such a fuss over it..get a life…losers!

Cheers to all!!

#158 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 12.23.11 at 1:40 pm

WE NEED AFFORDABLE FIXED 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES! NOW!

NATIONAL EMERGENCY!

Whatever is the reason that Canadians cannot get an affordable locked in rate for 30 or even 10 years (affordable being the key word), We need this. Now.

Interest rates are about the lowest in the history of humanity.

Investors are willing to lock in and lend money to the Canadian government for 30 years at 2.50%.

It is an urgent matter of national financial security that we find a way to give our homeowners 30-year locked in rates at something affordable (under 5% and maybe as low as the 3.9% that Americans can get).

Investors will likely accept some kind of early pay-off features as well. They accept it in the U.S. so why not in Canada? (with CMHC/government guarantees)

Many home owners are at serious finacial risk if interest rates rise.

Futhermore, why not take advantage of idiot investors willing to lend for 30 years at rates as low as 2.5%?

Seriously, this is the opportunity of a lifetime for Canadians to lock in at the lowest intere rates in history. (If only affordable rates were made availaible like they are in the USA)

How can we get the banks and CMHC working on this immediately?

Wouldn’t it be great if this Blog could make it happen! What a Christmas present to Canadians that would be!

#159 polecat on 12.23.11 at 1:40 pm

I have been following Garth for about 7 years now. He makes a lot of valid points, Saw the foolishness in Victoria. Rented the whole time. Posted to Halifax and did buy because it was just as cheap as rent. Mind you, it is a fix upper but only twice my salary. Built in 57 with real wood, go figure. Lot of overpriced stuff here too, especially when I see how it is built. Anyway, I’m not hoping for a big correction or believe a house is be all end all. We bought because the time was right and found the worst house on a good street. Take a few years to get her to where we want but not break the bank. Lots of property so my windmill wont bug neighbors either. I can see the price of oil having a huge effect on housing too, not just interest rates. Anyway, thank’s Garth, you may chide me for buying, but I did take your advice by not going crazy , even though the bank was going to give me a whole lot more. I’ll stick with my little 20 year mortgage and humble home, I can afford to heat it and eat pretty well too. Merry Christmas, give the Amazons a kiss and hug for me, hope they were naughty….

#160 Smoking Man on 12.23.11 at 1:43 pm

Ok bubble heads and basement dwellers. For your new years resolutions I have some 10 suggestions.

I will quit trading my time for wages, I will buy and sell and make money, wages are the crumbs of someone’s deal.

I will not believe a single thing I read or watch, everything I’m exposed to since birth has an agenda behind it, the goal is to in rich the messenger while taking from my wallet. I will be the messenger.

I will learn and practice the art of lying.

I will play poker once a month and focus on winning hands with bad cards, read the herd and play them rather than my cards.

I will home school my kids. Schooling is the most destructive institution for people that have sell made tendencies. Which is everyone till the school system rips it from your soul.

I will not give to organized charities but will give cash to the homeless.

I will live each day like it’s my last.

I will never bow to another man or god, I may fake bowing if there is a big pay off.

I will not be afraid of risk, let risk be frightened of me.

I will try and understand the cryptic messages smoking man send out with every post.

Have a good one kids, time to get loser drunk.

#161 a prairie dawg on 12.23.11 at 1:43 pm

Title is changed to “The Little Dumber Boy”

#162 MixedBag on 12.23.11 at 1:43 pm

Garth, one question: If a 10% reduction will result in crappy markets, what would be the impact on yield-producing assets? It’s doubtful the answer would be “none” as nothing exists in a vacuum, so what would the realistic expectation be?

Thank you for the blog, and Happy Holidays to you and yours.

No impact on income or capital value, at least for quality preferreds. Likely no impact on REITs, which are not correlated to equities. — Garth

#163 Van guy blazin kush on 12.23.11 at 1:47 pm

Poco,

Regarding yesterday’s conversation about condos. So how do you know all these condos are underwater? Did you and your buddies buy all of these units? You’re confused with the definition of “underwater”. I believe that these condos are likely worth less than what the owners paid, but your statement of being underwater is just purely bunk.

#164 disciple on 12.23.11 at 1:47 pm

Here’s one last disciple offering before Xmas:

The greatest historical lie of all has now been laid bare, our Western civilisation is not thanks to Christianity, the very opposite it true, our civilisation is in spite of Christianity. This fact was made very clear when the BBC showed the thirteen-part television series “Cosmos” in the early 1980’s.

This was written and presented by the American astronomer Carl Sagan. This series was seen by millions of people throughout the world. Many were astounded to find that they had been deliberately deceived by their history teachers: that the truth is completely opposite to what they had been taught from birth. Carl Sagan told the shocking but true story of how in the year CE 415, a Christian mob, acting on the orders of Archbishop Cyril, murdered Hypatia, the female principal of the great library in Alexandria. This remarkable woman was a mathematician, astronomer, physicist and a philosopher. On her way to work she was dragged from her chariot and the mob, armed with abalone shells, flayed the flesh from her bones. Her library, along with its priceless manuscripts, was burnt to the ground. Cyril was made a saint! Unfortunately this was not an isolated incident but one small part of a carefully organised plan to eliminate paganism from the Roman Empire.

#165 disciple on 12.23.11 at 1:52 pm

And some more of what you’re not taught in school:

The Torah was a deliberate misinterpretation of the TAROT. The words are virtually identical. Exchanging symbolic language for written has long been a strategy of your real rulers.

The Discovery That Reality Also Exists in the Invisible

Empedocles discovered that reality also existed in the invisible part of the universe – beyond our five physical senses. Democritus propounded the theory that matter is composed of invisible stuff called atoms. He thought religions were divisive and evil. Archimedes’ inventions led to practical scientific discoveries. Euclid taught people to think, calculate and reason. Ictinus was the great architect of the Parthenon. Socrates (470-399 BCE), this outstanding philosopher taught the unity of mankind and survival after death without any connection with priestcraft. Just before the priests forced him to take poison his friends asked him where he wanted to be buried, to which he answered, “Catch me if you can.” Plato, who was taught by Socrates, passed on his great wisdom and codes of conduct to Aristotle, whom many declare to be the greatest early scientist of them all.

Quintillian (CE 35-96), a Roman citizen who led the known world in education on the lines laid down by Plato. He was the equivalent of a Secretary of State for Education or Minister of Education. This outstanding of all Roman schoolmasters loved liberty, justice and mercy besides abhorring all forms of cruelty and oppression. To him ethics took the place of religion as the only safe guide in correct conduct.

#166 disciple on 12.23.11 at 1:53 pm

Deal with it. The truth follows. Deal with it.

The World Plunged into the Christian Dark Ages

This then is the “pagan” civilisation that was destroyed by Christendom after the Council of Nicaea in CE 325. It was here at Nicaea that an all-embracing (Catholic) religion was formulated and adopted as the official religion of the Roman Empire. Jesus, an unhistorical Jewish teacher, was officially made into the god called Christ (the anointed one). The 17th saviour-god known to historians and the second person in a trinity of gods. Arthur Findlay says, “To confuse Jesus with Christ the saviour-god is a gross historical blunder.” All who did not conform to these supernatural doctrines and dogmas were murdered or exiled. The known world was plunged into the Christian Dark Ages, not to really emerge again until the invention of printing which coincided with the fall of Constantinople in 1453.

Have a Merry Christmas!

#167 Junius on 12.23.11 at 2:08 pm

Garth,

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Thanks for maintaining your integrity and all the good work you do on this blog and in your books.

#168 R2D2 on 12.23.11 at 2:22 pm

Merry Christmas from down on the farm. Remember everybody; it coulda been worse, he coulda used to be smart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAAiSHSPk_w

#169 Toon Town Boomer on 12.23.11 at 2:39 pm

Garth
Thanks for all your time & effort spent delivering every daily blog post in 2011. I did learn a thing or two.
Merry Christmas & all the best in the new year.

#170 Form Man on 12.23.11 at 2:42 pm

#132 Devil’s Advocate

seriously ? I hope you are writing with your tongue firmly in cheek………if not, I fear for your mental health………

#171 GregW, Oakville on 12.23.11 at 2:59 pm

Hi #124GARTH !!!!explain to me how you can be so Optimistic

Have You seen this 5min clip from some movie? You might enjoy it.
“Network – “I’m as mad as hell” speech [english subtitles]”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_qgVn-Op7Q

#172 poco on 12.23.11 at 3:23 pm

#163Van guy blazin kush on 12.23.11 at 1:47 pm
Poco,

Regarding yesterday’s conversation about condos. So how do you know all these condos are underwater? Did you and your buddies buy all of these units? You’re confused with the definition of “underwater”. I believe that these condos are likely worth less than what the owners paid, but your statement of being underwater is just purely bunk.
______________________________________________

yes the definition of “underwater’ is owing more on your Mortgage than your property is worth

–who made up that definition—NRA—if you believe it you’re—well i won’t say it

figure in all the expenses of buying and selling—if you lose money–you know — in the RED–when you sell— do you consider yourself a winner?

and if you’ve read any of my previous posts you’ld know why i know that many of those condo owners are both “underwater in your terms and mine
i sold out long ago and now do what i do

you should do more than just watch Realtor.ca –do some real research
i’ll give you a few when i have time in the new year– you seem to be wanting to buy pretty badly

#173 Marie on 12.23.11 at 3:34 pm

Garth, can you pls. explain Flaherty’s thinking on Canada putting our money into the IMF!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/12/22/flaherty-imf-europe-fund.html

I read with sympathy “In a telling scene two months ago, Shanghai property developers started slashing prices on their latest luxury condos by up to one-third. Crowds of owners who had recently bought apartments at full price converged on sales offices throughout the city, demanding refunds. Some angry investors went on a rampage, breaking windows and smashing showrooms.” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-122211-chinas_real_estate_bubble_may_3-122211

Merry Christmas and let’s hope ’12 is better for all!

#174 Ticketyboo78 on 12.23.11 at 3:37 pm

Nearly a year ago, my now husband and I almost did the unthinkable and invested $150k into a pre-sale $500k t/h. You see, I had been out of the market for 6 months and going crazy. I couldn’t think straight. I obsessively searched Realtor for the ideal home. Then a colleague pointed me to your blog. You cured my obsession! I am now very content to rent my parents basement suite and have even tried (and unfortunately failed) to get them to downsize the family home in preparation for retirement. In short, I just wanted to say THANK YOU for your blunt commentary and great advice. Happy Holidays!

#175 poco on 12.23.11 at 3:45 pm

#163Van guy blazin kush on 12.23.11 at 1:47 pm

here ‘s your homework for the holidays—check up on 1185 High St Coquitlam –behind Coq.center–it’s been one of my favorites along with 555 Delestre–mostly flippers i think

see if you can figure out if these owners are underwater (your term or mine) it’s all in the listing!!!! read it closely

#176 Vincent on 12.23.11 at 4:09 pm

Rent vs Buy

http://www.holypotato.net/?p=1073

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AktN0CUf4uaVdHNvWFFzT0VPVFZTdi1ra0dCUC1jU3c#gid=0

#177 NAGA on 12.23.11 at 4:17 pm

Garth – merry christmas and to all may 2012 be the best year yet.

My predictions/guesses for 2012:

Economy (Canada) GDP +1% but it will feel like a recession

Interest Rate – By the end of 2012 no change and if any movemnet it will be a cut

INFLATION – nominal 1.5%

Unemployment – pretty much unchanged

Real wage gains – ZERO

Real Estate – Zero change to Cdn average prices
GTA – 0 to 5% gain but will vary significantly by district and type of housing – GTA prices and overall activity still bouyed by infrastructure spending in transporation and commonwealth games – I have no idea/knowledge for other major markets and do not really care about what happens there.

TSE – 12,500 but if europe implodes all bets are off

I am looking forward to 2012 and will be making investment decisions based on the above set of assumptions in an overall longer term environment that is screaming “deleveraging of both Governments and individuals”

Looking forward to December 2012 to revisit these assumptions and either brag or……

#178 Echo on 12.23.11 at 4:19 pm

Have a lovely break Garth, push all of this aside. When you come back stop acknowledging the idiots, unteachables, and hosers. Just write for people with an “ability to reason” and a tad or more of critical thinking ability. In that pocket you can expect intelligent dialogue, a nice conversation. Seriously Garth, to acknowledge the radicals and the unteachable, ignorant
by choice hosers as much as you do you must be getting tired and frustrated.

Most people care about your commentary about THE ECONOMY, not watching you defend your brilliant, experienced, logical mind. To start quoting the Banks and Gov cya diatribe as backup is even worse. Using them as validation for your points is teaching the young and the “herd” that what these shell games ‘usually’ say is worth listening to. Garth ! Yes, take a break. : )

#179 Echo on 12.23.11 at 4:20 pm

Have a lovely break Garth, push all of this aside. When you come back stop acknowledging the idiots, unteachables, and hosers. Just write for people with an “ability to reason” and a tad or more of critical thinking ability. In that pocket you can expect intelligent dialogue, a nice conversation. Seriously Garth, to acknowledge the radicals and the unteachable, ignorant
by choice hosers as much as you do you must be getting tired and frustrated.

Most people care about your commentary about THE ECONOMY, not watching you defend your brilliant, experienced, logical mind. To start quoting the Banks
and Gov cya diatribe as backup is even worse. Using them as validation for your points is teaching the young and the “herd” that what these shell games ‘usually’ say is worth listening to. Garth ! Yes, take a break. : )

#180 shifty on 12.23.11 at 4:37 pm

I’ve bought the books been listening and reading this blog from the beginning. You have made a positive difference to me and friends. Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.

#181 john m on 12.23.11 at 4:39 pm

Merry Christmas Garth to you and your family…your the best!………………..p.s. i see Harper and some of his cronies are getting sued by “Guergis”….if you ever consider doing the same you will have my support any way i can.

#182 X on 12.23.11 at 4:40 pm

Garth, Merry Christmas, we appreciate your efforts with this blog, and more importantly your knowledge that you so generously share with us.

#183 Van guy blazin kush on 12.23.11 at 4:53 pm

#172 poco on 12.23.11 at 3:23 pm

Still bunk. How do you know these so called “underwater” people’s financial situation? Even at 15% DP, their still above water at this point. I do agree with you the Tri-cities is fu&@d, but you can’t back uP your statement. Brand new condo sales are not recorded on the MLS, so I can find those details. And for me researching, I do have access to mlslink.mlxchange.ca.

#184 Benny Hill on 12.23.11 at 5:36 pm

Merry Xmas Asshole

hope you get a brain and some humility for the new year

You are a guest here. Act like one. — Garth

#185 T.O condo's sit empty on 12.23.11 at 5:42 pm

Garth, can you pls. explain Flaherty’s thinking on Canada putting our money into the IMF!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/12/22/flaherty-imf-europe-fund.html

I read with sympathy “In a telling scene two months ago, Shanghai property developers started slashing prices on their latest luxury condos by up to one-third. Crowds of owners who had recently bought apartments at full price converged on sales offices throughout the city, demanding refunds. Some angry investors went on a rampage, breaking windows and smashing showrooms.” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-122211-chinas_real_estate_bubble_may_3-122211

Merry Christmas and let’s hope ’12 is better for all!
——————————————————————

The same thing will happen in Canada as all the flippers who are now caught in the housing ponzi > people are gambling with money they do not have or willing to pay back. Mark Carney needs to increase interest rates and F needs to put mortgage back to 25 years and 10% down. Yes prices will fall by 40-50% but Canada will be able to compete with the rest of the world. How can Canada compete when wages in the US are lower and houses cost half? The housing ponzi has to be distoried or Canada is finished.

#186 Macrath on 12.23.11 at 5:57 pm

The wife says” A week without Garth Turner ! What the hell are you going to do ?”

Denial,doubt,fear,desperation,panic then capitulation and depression.

Feliz Navidad.Prospero Año y Felicidad

#187 DM in C on 12.23.11 at 6:11 pm

Happy Christmas to all. Thanks for your work and blog, Garth et al.

Happy New Year as well.

Catch y’all on the flip side.

#188 poco on 12.23.11 at 6:30 pm

#183Van guy blazin kush on 12.23.11 at 4:53 pm

Still bunk. How do you know these so called “underwater” people’s financial situation? Even at 15% DP, their still above water at this point. I do agree with you the Tri-cities is fu&@d, but you can’t back uP your statement. Brand new condo sales are not recorded on the MLS, so I can find those details. And for me researching, I do have access to mlslink.mlxchange.ca.
______________________________________________

sorry but you have got to learn how to do MATH

15% downpayment on 537k=80.55k now when you are trying to stop any further bleeding and list for 455.9k is it not “underwater” in anyones book

a loss is a loss—don’t you see that —-didn’t you say you sold for a loss on a property—if it made you want to jump right in again— you go for it— we’ve got a long way to go down yet

heres one for your math skills—condo
bought sept 10–250k
sold dec 11—250k
was this owner ahead on his net worth or in the red?
don’t forget condo fees
taxes
land transfer tax
realtor fees
lawyer fees
hst on fees———-do you think this seller will be buying in the near future

i’m waiting on high st

#189 Cory on 12.23.11 at 6:37 pm

I dont know why people would think a 5% return is impossible?? I did 15% in one account and 21% in another this year (avg 18.4%). True, not nearly as good as my 42% last year but still better than anything else pays and it was easy to do. Not rocket science this stuff but people are too scared and lazy to learn it themselves.

#190 MarcFromOttawa on 12.23.11 at 6:49 pm

#174 Ticketyboo78

Only kids and goldbugs live in their mom’s basement.
It’s evident you haven’t been reading Garth’s blog for very long.

#191 Vancouver on 12.23.11 at 6:56 pm

Garth, not everyone wants see the middle class wiped out. “Seems a core group of people are more interested in seeing others toppled than in helping themselves”. But people have laughed at me for explaining to them we are in a housing bubble ready for correction. They will learn the hard way. I look at myself as a person waiting for a good deal that is affordable. Bigger the correction means to me, not more expensive the home I can buy; but less I pay the bank and more money left over to save for my retirement. I would rather rent but the Mrs. wants a home, however she agrees we should wait and she’s in no hurry. (Thank god)

#192 jess on 12.23.11 at 7:10 pm

Growth in Liars

“Stated income and reduced documentation loans speed up the approval process, but they are open invitations to fraudsters.” “When the stated incomes were compared to the IRS figures: [90%] of the stated incomes were exaggerated by 5% or more. [A]lmost 60% were exaggerated by more than 50%. [T]he stated income loan deserves the nickname used by many in the industry, the ‘liar’s loan’” (MARI 2006).
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2011/11/virgin-crisis-systematically-ignoring.html

#193 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 7:29 pm

Hey there Disciple, Ricky wants you to help him cram for his grade 11 and perhaps address the gang at Sunnyvale at the SASTPGFBDCParty. Garth says if you thought he was good at this year’s bash, you haven’t seen anything yet! We just got a letter from Carney and Ron Paul that stated in no uncertain terms that they will under no, and I mean no friggin circumstances, come to the SASTPGFBDCParty!! What a couple of losers!!!

#194 Devil's Advocate on 12.23.11 at 7:31 pm

#170Form Man on 12.23.11 at 2:42 pm
#132 Devil’s Advocate

seriously ? I hope you are writing with your tongue firmly in cheek………if not, I fear for your mental health………

Dead serious Form Man. I thought you were leaving town? Why don’t you make room for someone who wants to be here?

#144poco on 12.23.11 at 12:26 pm
Oh DA you are so easy—–that last definition was totally opposite from what your previous post said
might i suggest you go back a few weeks and read over some of your posts -(you know — before you had a hissy fit and swore you’ld never come back)—you contradict yourself over and over again—still delusional as ever

Poco Kelowna is a pretty freeking fantastic place to reside if you can manage to do it. It is a tough town – real tough. I have helped many a wanna-be resident buy a home here and then too soon there-after sell it to scurry back with their tail between their legs to wherever it wass they came from after realizing they did not have the ability to compete here.

But there is a reason for that POCO and that reason is as simple as this town attracts the attention of so many but only the few who can compete can hold on. You all think you are so “Big City”. Ya right… I invite you to come on down and teach us Local Yokals a thing or too. Many have tried and died. There is a line-up of you at the door. Just ask Form Man he knows of what I speak. Hell go back a bit in these blogs and read it in his own words.

It’s a tough unforgiving town but it’s worth it if you can manage. There ain’t no free ride nowhere POCO and the cost of admission here is more than you know. But it’s worth it, has ta be, because we have a line up at the door waiting their turn to get in.

#195 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 7:32 pm

#160 Smoking Man

Ricky was very disappointed your were a no show at the FASTPGFBDCParty! He has a stash of weed for you but no, Smoking Man was no where to be seen in Sunnyvale! Hope you make it out to the SASTPGFBDCParty!

#196 45north on 12.23.11 at 7:33 pm

My traditional Amazonian Christmas begins tomorrow.

Need for More Amazons!

http://mcaf.ee/me5ni

#197 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 7:38 pm

#124

“I think you are to optimistic, I read your blog and others daily and you are positive compared to others.”

The reason our fearless leader is so optimistic compared to the bozos you mentioned is very simple cowboy. Garth is the all knowing, all wise, mystic oracle, bearded reader of the financial tea leaves, prognosticator extraordinaire, former right honourable, fearless parliamentarian, minister of national finances, privy to the inner chambers of the bank of Canada, Mark Carney’s confidant, lone voice of reason crying out in a financial wasteland known as Canada, wise, compassionate, just, merciful, sagacious in his each and every thought! To boot he is also a jolly good fellow! Destroyer of Ron Paul and his gold standard nonsense, defender of all that is right, just and proper in society. The clowns you cite just don’t measure up!!

#198 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 7:40 pm

#105 Keeping the Faith

“I just calculated my return for this year and I was easily over 6%, closer to 10% actually.”

Hey Faithful one, Ricky had a 92% return this year with the Sunnyvale slush fund (sorry it is closed to only Sunnyvale residents)and he only has his Grade 10!

#199 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 7:42 pm

Hey Form Man and Westernman. I had so much screech at the FASTPGFBDCParty that I have no and I mean no recollection of your ploughing contest. Could one or both of you enlighten me on the friggin results???

#200 ScottyD on 12.23.11 at 8:03 pm

Merry Christmas Garth, and thank you.

#201 GregW, Oakville on 12.23.11 at 8:17 pm

Hi Garth, Someone may be interested in these this weekend on TVOnatrio. http://bigideas.tvo.org/
(I wonder if G inspired him at all? Maybe.)
“re-broadcast a lecture by the UofT psychologist Jordan Peterson on the necessity of virtue.”

Here are a few other online offerings involving Jordan Peterson. Earlier this year, he participated in a debate with philosopher Ronald de Sousa about whether we can live ‘without the idea of the sacred’.

BIG IDEAS has aired two more lectures by Jordan Peterson which touch on the themes of this weekend’s re-broadcast. One is ‘on the nature of evil’ and the other is on the relationship between ‘reality and the sacred’.
Two shorter offerings come from the FLYING SOLO series: ‘On Difficult Truths’ and ‘On Order and Chaos’

#202 Time to buy in the US, just rent in Canada on 12.23.11 at 8:21 pm

Rent in Canada, buy in the US, its on sale, but not for much longer. A beautiful house that costs 1.2 million in Canada only cost $260,000 in the States and I mean beautiful. I know I bought one. On the water, new kitchen, granite, new appliannces, new bathrooms, new pool, pot lighting you name it. Just rent in Canada, no point in owning there, everything returns to the mean, including real estate.

#203 Fist Full of Dollar$ on 12.23.11 at 8:27 pm

Regardless of your investment strategy, let’s all have a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year. Here’s to looking forward to Garth’s perspective in 2012.

Peace.

#204 P & T S on 12.23.11 at 8:32 pm

A Happy Christmas and Prosperous New Year to One and All! Keep up the work Capt. Garth, and it’ll be interesting to see just what has changes this time in 2012.

Colleagues in the EU are mostly confident that it’ll “somehow hold together” but there are problems. Puppet Governments might have one idea but a squeezed populace may have other ideas (and no matter how well armed the military, once the people stop paying their taxes things can get nasty quickly).

One consistent theme in the e-mails I have received this week from former colleagues in Florence, Madrid, Lisbon, Santander, Naples, and Akrotiri is that things ARE bad, and are NOT improving – so public morale is at a rock-bottom level. LOTS of dissatisfaction on the Internet and in the popular social media (Twitter, Facebook etc.).

Contrast this with the public mood in Amsterdam, Eindhoven, Utrecht, Roosendaal, Groniongen, Niemegen etc – “all’s well and life’s good”, but the Dutch economy is stronger than the German economy.

Whilst we may all wish for a Happy and Peaceful 2012, the reality is that there is an increasing pool of very p****d off people out there, and this is the stuff riots and Civil War are made of.

The end of 2011 isn’t that different from the end of 2010 – same debt, same problems, same can-kicking by all the major Governments.

Rest assured that the end of 2012 will NOT be a repeat of “end 2011”, but be very careful what you wish for – remember the “Law of Unintended Consequences” always applies.

#205 Bill Grable on 12.23.11 at 9:08 pm

Be safe and give thanks for the generodity of our host and favourite Harley freak.
Merry Christmas to the Turner Family, and I hope Bandit gets a comfy spot near the fire.

#206 Canadian Watchdog on 12.23.11 at 9:12 pm

#185 T.O condo’s sit empty

That’s a big question for a real estate blog; here’s the short version.

Despite what Flaherty tells anyone, contributing funds to the IMF (via SDR purchases) is in the interest of America as new proposals are indicating the BRICS wanting a higher quota over Canada and and the US—therefore stripping away North America’s veto power.

http://i42.tinypic.com/23gy77n.png

The IMF is really about reforming an international currency into a globalized economy.

#207 Habbit on 12.23.11 at 9:15 pm

#125 eaglebay – Parksville Thanks for the post. Decent of you to not be in attack mode in the spirit of Christmas. The ME KNOW types will never get it. They need someone to blame cause it’s not all about ME NOW. My wife and I raised 3 children who are young adults now. They are finding their way just fine. We expect to leave behind inheratance for them the’re terrific young people. If they were like Yo Yo we’d leave it to charity. Have a great holiday.

#208 45north on 12.23.11 at 9:23 pm

P & T S: the end of 2012 will NOT be a repeat of “end 2011″

that is my strong feeling

Merry Christmas!

#209 ballingsford on 12.23.11 at 9:33 pm

Merry Christmas Garth to you and your family! May the New Year bring you and your family Health and Happiness.

Same goes for all you blog dogs out there. My highlight of the day goes to reading Garth’s article and then your comments. Quite entertaining and also quite informative.

May it also bring an end to low interest rates and 30 year amortizations.

May the 10% or more real estate crash end more sooner than later.

Have a nice holiday season everyone!

#210 comfortably numb on 12.23.11 at 9:49 pm

#132 Devils Advocate

“And who doesn’t dig in their heels when faced with the prospect of being paid less than agreed?

But I never “whine” numbnuts because the sort who tries to renege on what they agreed to pay is not the sort I want to deal with in the first place. So it’s best, as I so often find, to just rip up the agreement and both go our separate ways.”

Oh I see…so you tell me what I should sell my house for and then ask me to take price reduction after reduction when you cant sell it at that price but still expect to get the full pop yourself ?
BTW my nuts may be numb but at least I have some. I’m not anonymously calling people names on the internet. Condescending, arrogant and hypocritical..you’re the total package buddy. Now why don’t you go back to telling us how hot your wife is.

#211 Westernman on 12.23.11 at 10:17 pm

[email protected]#120,
If you think socialism is so grand why don’t you haul your marxist arse down to Cuba or some place like that and live in a mud hut…
And by the way, Merry Christmas.

#212 TurnerNation on 12.23.11 at 10:38 pm

Heading into 2012 we must remain more vigilant than ever for those who stand in the way of our freedoms.

This good doctor nearly received a reservation in one of the Harper Governments’ [sic] new prisons. Not in Canada you say? Pity.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/12/22/windsor-tyceer-abouhassan.html

#213 And in Calgary on 12.23.11 at 10:41 pm

Merry X-Mas Garth.. your analysis as always.. spot on!

#214 George the American on 12.23.11 at 10:45 pm

Time to buy in the US, just rent in Canada on 12.23.11 at 8:21 pm
Rent in Canada, buy in the US, its on sale, but not for much longer. A beautiful house that costs 1.2 million in Canada only cost $260,000 in the States and I mean beautiful. I know I bought one. On the water, new kitchen, granite, new appliannces, new bathrooms, new pool, pot lighting you name it. Just rent in Canada, no point in owning there, everything returns to the mean, including real estate.
——————————————————————
Canadians have a RE bubble that makes our US housing bubble look small. One can not believe how delusional Canadians have become to such an obvious housing bubble. Hey Canada do you know the Canadian average home costs twice as much then the average homes in the US? We use to spend like crazy until we all maxed out our cards. Canadians 153% indebt? Wow ….Canadians really think it’s different?

#215 TurnerNation on 12.23.11 at 10:48 pm

The middle class will destroy themselves!

Exhibit A: newlyweds, mid 20s, no kids, expensive wedding, bought condo for almost 300k, 1.5 incomes, no RRSPs, renno-ed the kitchen, new (used) car, expensive trips, hundreds spend on Xmas gifts, banking on low mortgage interest rates, monthly condo fee is closer to $700 (all-inclusive).

Living on the edge.

#216 sam the zam on 12.23.11 at 10:53 pm

Hey Garth we’re not all wearing depends on our heads.
I’ve been collecting distributions for years. Artis, Dundee reits, Income trusts etc.
Those distributions almost by themselves put two kids through University.
Daughter just finished 4th year registered nursing program.
Son just finishing International business degree.
Thanks in a very large part from taking your advise over the years.
Oh and for the blog dogs info I have never earned over 63 K.
annually. No hardship, decent home , RRSP in good shape. Liquid liquid liquid. gotta love it.
So thats my little christmas present to you and all the other blog dogs. 6% no problem.
All the best Garth hope the lights shine bright in the bunker, and remember Harley’s don’t leak oil they are only marking their spot.
Merry christmas to all.

#217 TurnerNation on 12.23.11 at 11:14 pm

Ohoh poco, you’ve been told! Apparently ‘Sellowna’ is a super-special place full of rugged He-men who can hack it.

TNT! IT’S DYNAMITE! TNT.

#218 April on 12.23.11 at 11:32 pm

Garth, wishing you and your family the best Christmas ever.
Thanks for your dedication. Always appreciated.

#219 NotAGreaterFool on 12.23.11 at 11:41 pm

Lang and O’Leary Exchange – what a segment of the show was:
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/TV_Shows/Lang_&_O'Leary_Exchange/1308689786/ID=2180026313

The clip on condo starts at the 35:38 mark
The joke starts at the 38:00 mark

Garth – this just made me fall of my chair!

#220 Trailer Park Boys on 12.23.11 at 11:46 pm

We’ve been investing according to Smoking Man’s Crap-tic code language whatamma -thingy.

Due to his expert ad-vise (ie below .08 onRichter/Breathalyzer scale/s) we now own Greece, Spain and option on Italy.

We are soooo” jalapeno happy”, I think we should pass hat chip in and pay for rest Smoking Man schooling so he can get his Grade 3 Diploma. The man deserves at least a drink named after him.

#221 Smoking Man on 12.23.11 at 11:51 pm

#195 Mr. Lahey on 12.23.11 at 7:32 pm

No idea what your talking about…..

Wasted 2 litters of wine……a roach and floyed.

Ya baby

#222 Smoking Man on 12.24.11 at 12:00 am

Crazy Diamonds rules,, Clare Tory gig in the sky num 2

If only you bubble heads had the………. um vision the spirt of me….you would need no one…you would rule……

at times like this floyed more importanly waters rules..

Universe is shrinking notrino that passed speed of lite proved it..

Doing a book… Ya I know gartho thinks im nuts,, but so they thought socratise was nuts ……

Im knot . for I am the smartest shit head on the planet,,

no school serving the swaps desk of the heart of our economy and they think im a fn genuees ..

well I am god if I could only get my wife to buy into it….

Made 325k consultnng income this year… all going to CRA…

why do I do it….. megala maniac fd don’t know i just know I turn shit into gold… whith what I do.. fk i cant even remember my sons friends names when they visit

but the being that control the swaps of the the heart beat of Canada think Im smart

ba hhahahahahahahahhah

love bozze

#223 Smoking Man on 12.24.11 at 12:02 am

Dont reach for the secret to some don’t cry for the moon

#224 Smoking Man on 12.24.11 at 12:05 am

Ben listening to tunes

Cohen Nancey’
Cave wild rose
waters what god wants

I love life

#225 Trailer Park Boys on 12.24.11 at 12:08 am

“C-lone-ahhh” BC is cheap to live.

If you work 37 hours a day at minimum wage, promise not to die till 120, and not take holidays,….Life is great.

You can get big tips from Fort McMurray rocket appliance-ists, ….y’know those interplanetary aliens that beam down with gifts of Bullsh*t and get $250K jobs pumping gas and wiping windshields.

#226 Smoking Man on 12.24.11 at 12:08 am

Gig in the sky

wow first take clare tory nails it…they call me a genuse

Im not worthy Clare Tory ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

#227 ontario's debt on 12.24.11 at 12:20 am

just a thought:

ontario has three times (3x!) the debt of california, a smaller industrial base, crappy winters…plus, a third of the population of the great western state.

garth is right: most will be screwed, because they are dumbasses…but, like the great depression, a mindful few will press forward, and even profit.

merry christmas, garth, and know this as you enter 2012: the work you do is appreciated…probably by more than you know.

#228 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.24.11 at 12:53 am

Deal with it. Xmas is over and was the usual sloppy, wet fart of a day, but now I have bypassed 2012 and springing ahead to 2029 (it’s a totally different world), so this is old news. You just haven’t seen it yet!
*
#206 Canadian Watchdog — “The IMF is really about reforming an international currency into a globalized economy.” — Well said! TPTB are going after Russia soon, just to spice things up.
*
Occupy West Coast The Occupy movement won’t fade away; Italy’s austerity garbage; 11:34 clip US GDP marked lower; Jim Willie on a coupla things; RE vs.. Balanced Portfolio What is fair to one is not always the best for another; RRSPs Silly Cdns. Use TFSAs instead; GS and 2012 Are they leaving the universe? But GS’s alter-ego retracts; Not only has the ECB lost its’ virginity, it has also lost its sanity; Youth Go west south west, young ‘uns to Argentina; 1:32 clip Half a tri. Euros and the markets still headed south.

Turkey – Syria Govt. interfering with business again; Christmas 1973 Gas shortages and The Exorcist released at the same time; Global Fiscal Funnies Everything tried so far has failed; Agenda 21 good? Italy and Spain; More naughties by banks; Immigration Economics; Basel II and Merry Merkozy McChristmas.
*
Stinkfoot Sneaker rampage; Sweden Following the leads of Portugal and Holland; 5:20 clip The Rockefellers’ One World Govt. Ahhh, the plans Of Mice and Men; TSA Never found or charged a terrorist, so they’re expanding (their waistlines); Documents “The top news story of 2011 is not the assassination of Osama Bin Laden (a CIA psyop), . . .”; Iran Ten day war games starting. Think they’re not preparing? Monsanto FDA going after the wrong one; G.H.W. Bush Ron Paul doesn’t stand a chance.

45:40 clip Top US military brass strongly against nuke war; GM Mosquitoes An unknown experiment (so was thalidomide), and more GM corn and soybeans; 1967 Mustang Convertible and New German bike with sidecar (WW2 era); NKorea Uncle Jang’s in charge; 2:06 clip Romney says Putin threat to world peace. Dickhead. Prodding the bear won’t do any good; Dentist’s Drill Gone in two years? Comet Lovejoy Nice pix; CIA and Soros Soros bankrolls Obomba; Smart Meters by force; Georgia Mayan ruins not only in one place.

#229 scared on 12.24.11 at 1:03 am

We are only on this earth for a very short time. Make the most of it. If it is stainless steel and granite, then go for it. I mean why wait for a 50% correction that may never come. Retirement home is around the corner, enjoy the McMansion today.
Merry Christmas Mr. Turner. Your witty dry humor brightens my day throughout the year. May you and your family have a Happy New Year.

#230 Paul on 12.24.11 at 1:21 am

Anyone see this on the Lang O’leary report. Starts At the 35.35min mark. Everything is fine in condo land.

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/TV_Shows/Lang_&_O'Leary_Exchange/1308689786/ID=2180026313

#231 A normal guy on 12.24.11 at 1:32 am

Wishing you and your family a Merry Christmas on behalf of those who read your blog regularly, but rarely leave comment.

#232 P & T S on 12.24.11 at 1:56 am

45North – If we’re all still alive this time next year we will in all probability be “ahead of the game”.

Whilst not a “Doom and Gloomer” Family we are realistic, and realise that the rosy picture painted by the MSM Worldwide is very far removed from the reality facing the majority of the population – even in the so-called “First World” Countries.

For many 2012 may be the start of a long, real, and perceived, decline in living standards: It’s easy to enjoy perpetual growth, but prolonged recession (with resulting reduction in day to day standards of living) is never easy, especially when it has never been experienced before.

NOT Happy times ahead we suspect!

#233 bridgepigeon on 12.24.11 at 2:17 am

Merry Christmas Garth.
To everyone else; be kind, we are blessed to be in this country, half the world gets by on two dollars a day or less, ultimately we are all renting, we leave with nothing as we came, the sun, clouds, hugs from your children, these are all free, enjoy your lives, peace…

#234 new-era on 12.24.11 at 2:32 am

#100 These pretzels are making me thirsty

—————————————-

At 10 % lost is 70 to 100 thousand dollar lost.

Which in many case will be good bye to your downpayment and automatically put most home buyers (present home buyers) into the red.

Also the only news recently that is hitting the real estate headline is 10 / 15 % lost predicted for next year. Eventually its going to get into the headers of home buyer and speculators who cannot rent their condos.

Just remember just a month ago everyone was predicting gains for the Real estate market. Things can turn on a dime. Also note if they are predicting a 10/15 % lost. A a few months from now they could be predicting a US style crash

#235 debtified on 12.24.11 at 5:04 am

Merry Christmas, Garth!

#236 James is back on 12.24.11 at 6:49 am

Happy Holidays
I paid all my Credits cards to zero, and before the due date. New year no debt.
How many can say that ??
And that is after spending $1,200 on new tires, Christmas gifts $500. Its nice to have zero debt. All I have to do now is invest at 5%. For those who missed Fridays Globe, they had all the high dividend stocks listed.
And to Garth a holiday is good,
Maybe tell us how many people you helped personally helped this year and then people may understand.
J

#237 Jamaican_Gal on 12.24.11 at 8:00 am

Merry Christmas to you and yours Garth. And to my blog friends….MERRY CHRISTMAS…

#238 Pr on 12.24.11 at 8:40 am

…They want HouseAgeddon.
Maybe, but i think the majority want this madness to stop, before its to late, like : usa,ireland, uk, etc. They want to see a good slap in the hand right now, instead of a punch in the face later.

#239 Incubus on 12.24.11 at 9:07 am

House price to rent ratios in Canadian cities at alarming levels

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com//content/house-price-rent-ratios-canadian-cities-alarming-levels

I see a 50% drop to return to the normal !

#240 Pr on 12.24.11 at 9:29 am

HI this is a *special * for the vancouver and Toronto new home owner (2006-2012) who think and argue Real estate always going up : Shanghai homeowners are hardly the only ones getting nervous. Sudden, steep price reductions are upending real estate markets across China. According to the property agency Homelink, new home prices in Beijing dropped 35 percent in November alone. And the free fall may continue for some time.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped

#241 Herb on 12.24.11 at 9:30 am

#211 Westernman,

naw, I prefer staying a champagne socialist.

Now, if you only had a brain … (The “goodwill to all” bit is only for Christmas, which doesn’t start until tonight.)

#242 cto on 12.24.11 at 10:08 am

232 P & T S

Not happy times ahead for many, but maybe, finally,…a return to a more, sane sustainable way of mind set within society. It will be a hard adjustment for a few.

#243 MoneyAndWealth on 12.24.11 at 10:18 am

I see what you did there Garth. Great post.

I hope the market overshoots and corrects by more than 15%

#244 Toronto the next Miami on 12.24.11 at 12:17 pm

Went to a party yesterday and was trying looking at the view of lake Ontario if only that stupid empty condo wasnt in my way. Toronto reminds me of miami when i was there a few years ago and you had condos popping up everywhere with many sitting empty. I remember the locals telling me everyone wants to retire here and buying condos for investment. Miami had the most cranes in NA to build condos. Toronto is now number one in NA with the most cranes. RE pumpers can you tell me why its different? The people in miami said it was different now i want to know why Toronto is different from laws of economics? Toronto condos are cash flow negative even with a 25% down payment.

#245 Devil's Advocate on 12.24.11 at 12:53 pm

#210comfortably numb on 12.23.11 at 9:49 pm
#132 Devils Advocate

“And who doesn’t dig in their heels when faced with the prospect of being paid less than agreed?

But I never “whine” numbnuts because the sort who tries to renege on what they agreed to pay is not the sort I want to deal with in the first place. So it’s best, as I so often find, to just rip up the agreement and both go our separate ways.”

Oh I see…so you tell me what I should sell my house for and then ask me to take price reduction after reduction when you cant sell it at that price but still expect to get the full pop yourself ?

BTW my nuts may be numb but at least I have some. I’m not anonymously calling people names on the internet. Condescending, arrogant and hypocritical..you’re the total package buddy. Now why don’t you go back to telling us how hot your wife is.

You deserve an answer…

If your house is not selling chances are it is over priced. Might be the marketing but I doubt it as my successes speak for themselves with a sell ratio well in excess of the average agent and a days on market to sell approaching half that of my competition. So, quite simply you must see that I need not discount my services as they are well enough in demand. Clearly your house, if it is not selling, is not so much.
If you consider “numbnuts” offensive you are too sensitive and I must ask “why so?” Could it be you are bitter and jaded as a consequence of your being so influenced by the extreme gloom and doom you read in this “pathetic” blog? Cheer up Buttercup that which you read here is but a small vocal minority. Climb out of that basement suite and soak up the enthusiasm. Life in this part of the world is a virtual Disneyland. Immigrants look at we lazy self-entitled Canadian born drones perplexed that we are so blind to the opportunity. Look around you – it’s a virtual cornucopia of opportunity. Is it any wonder the immigrant ranks among us are growing in leaps and bounds?

And my wife is hot… you would cry if you saw her. But then I am a superficial S.O.B. who likes that kind of thing in a woman. What would really make you cry is to get to know her and come to realize what a great “person” she is and then wonder how the hell she settled for the likes of such a “condescending, arrogant, hypocrite” as me. But I’m a little perplexed by the “hypocrite” comment – most dislike me because I point out the hypocrisy in all humanity and they can’t handle that truth. A hypocrite I am not. That I call it like it is, regardless of my audience, is what gets me in trouble.

#246 bill on 12.24.11 at 1:33 pm

”you would cry if you saw her”
DA:
she cant be that ugly your exagerating a bit.

#247 Paul on 12.24.11 at 1:48 pm

Yes DA, Kelowna is just a fantastic place to live. There’s so much to do.

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=37454

#248 Spiltbongwater on 12.24.11 at 1:50 pm

#245Devil’s Advocate on 12.24.11 at 12:53 pm

Can you post a pic of your wife? Seen as you mention she is hot, only fair to post a pic imo.

#249 Young Old Fart on 12.24.11 at 2:18 pm

Merry Christmas to Garth and all blogdogs! I hope you all get nice presents!

Mine came when the money from my last RE sale was deposited and the manager offered me a REIT from the bank. Bank owns high end real estate towers….well, 12% a year returns…. CHA CHING!!!

Here’s my prediction for the next year…….

Slight drop in RE prices, those of you dipsticks that for the last two years have been yammering on this blog about 50% drops and vultching? I have a name for you, future Walmart greeters making minimum wage.

Stock markets will trundle along and maintain the levels they are at now so Garth’s call of buying preferred shares is smart as they are the ones to make you money while holding their value.

There will be no major collapse of anything!!

Sorry to burst your bubble…… LOL

#250 Westernman on 12.24.11 at 2:34 pm

Herb,
As with most socialist-marxists you enjoy throwing other peoples money down the drain but prefer that that mental disease known as liberalism doesn’t apply to you… take good note all you dumbshits that think socialism is a garden of eden….

#251 Dude on 12.24.11 at 2:54 pm

I’ve got a REIT in my sock!

#252 Smoking Man on 12.24.11 at 3:16 pm

Few months ago I said if the USA faced any threat it was from inside it’s forces.

Seems I was right again, now they are spying on us solders emails and web browsing….

Next year should be a butie

http://rt.com/usa/news/pentagon-darpa-prodigal-email-537/

#253 Herb on 12.24.11 at 4:18 pm

#250 Westernman,

naw, I don’t “enjoy throwing other peoples money down the drain”, but I much prefer the thought of helping those with less to the idea of helping myself to the little they have. If that is your “mental disease of liberalism” I hope to get a rampant case of it.

The reason you neandercons are so sad is because your mental and social development never progressed beyond the Cro-Magnon stage. You still think that competition drives progress, when it was cooperation that got us out of the trees and walking upright.

As a good, fundamentalist Christian you, of course, know the neandercon’s prayer: “Lord, make me human, but not just yet.” (With apologies to St. Augustine and his prayer for chastity.)

#254 F on 12.24.11 at 4:19 pm

Merry Christmas Everyone!

#255 poco on 12.24.11 at 4:26 pm

#132 Devil’s Advocate on 12.23.11 at 10:35 am
you said……
But I never “whine” numbnuts because the sort who tries to renege on what they agreed to pay is not the sort I want to deal with in the first place. So it’s best, as I so often find, to just rip up the agreement and both go our separate ways.
_________________________
” as I so often find”–so it’s not just the bloggers you don’t get along with — you can’t keep clients as well–really it’s not that hard to see why
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

#194 Devil’s Advocate on 12.23.11 at 7:31 pm
Poco Kelowna is a pretty freeking fantastic place to reside if you can manage to do it. It is a tough town – real tough. I have helped many a wanna-be resident buy a home here and then too soon there-after sell it to scurry back with their tail between their legs to wherever it wass they came from after realizing they did not have the ability to compete here.
But there is a reason for that POCO and that reason is as simple as this town attracts the attention of so many but only the few who can compete can hold on. You all think you are so “Big City”. Ya right… I invite you to come on down and teach us Local Yokals a thing or too. Many have tried and died. There is a line-up of you at the door. Just ask Form Man he knows of what I speak. Hell go back a bit in these blogs and read it in his own words.
It’s a tough unforgiving town but it’s worth it if you can manage. There ain’t no free ride nowhere POCO and the cost of admission here is more than you know. But it’s worth it, has ta be, because we have a line up at the door waiting their turn to get in.
____________________________

Holy Crap—you took that right out of an old John Wayne movie —you know the big burly sheriff talking to the poor little saloon girl–i’m impressed
and if we’re in the big city (Van)we come up —not down

and Form Man is right —after reading some of your posts–you seem very confused !!!

#256 Blacksheep on 12.24.11 at 4:36 pm

To Garth and Dogs, Merry Christmas.

take care,
Blacksheep

#257 Hoof-Hearted on 12.24.11 at 5:43 pm

Merry Christmas to all !

…….best wishes for a prosperous New Year !

#258 Westernman on 12.24.11 at 7:04 pm

Herb,
What ever gave you the idea I was a fundamentalist christian?
And yeah, you are eat up up with the liberal, bleeding heart, do-gooder, politically correct, social engineering and wealth-redistributing disease…
I will do the right thing though, I’ll let YOU make My contribution to the ” let’s save the world from itself ” endowment.
I’m sure that will lesson your guilt burden…

#259 Devil's Advocate on 12.24.11 at 7:26 pm

#255poco on 12.24.11 at 4:26 pm
You make me laugh poco. And you think I have an odd interpretation of things? At least I don’t try to twist them to mean something they clearly were not intended to mean. I stand by my words poco, interpret them publically as you will. I know you are not THAT stupid to not know what I meant.


Yes, that was indeed a backhanded compliment.

#260 Andrew on 12.24.11 at 7:58 pm

Also I think: Buy Montreal, sell Toronto and Vancouver. Vancouver: rent forever city. Toronto: spend 2 hours a day on the GO train/401 if you want to buy a house. Montreal: cross the Champlain bridge (takes 15-20 minutes) and buy houses for cheap cheap cheap. The divergance in real estate prices between Montreal and Toronto/Vancouver is astounding.

#261 David Abraham on 12.24.11 at 8:18 pm

Funny, but bad social impact on our kids, so we must avoid these nuisance.

#262 TurnerNation on 12.24.11 at 9:03 pm

Here’s a festive dog picture for this webnog, err I mean weblog:

http://tinyurl.com/7ycs8wg

#263 TurnerNation on 12.24.11 at 9:10 pm

300th!!

#264 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.24.11 at 9:45 pm


Sushi Eve today then Pizza Day with veggies and cheese on top tomorrow. Yep, we’re unconventional!
*
E-mail Something is happening in the PM markets while we don’t look; Squandering Billions wasted, akin to the fall of Rome; Michelle Obama Spending just like the ECB and US Fed combined; The Perfect Heist Europe and NAmerica, Coke and Pepsi — what’s the diff? Euro Collapse “Some corporate firms have also started transferring their cash on a daily basis out of European countries, including debt-ridden Greece instead of once every two weeks.”

US RE Good and bad news; Xmas Eve Layoffs Two hospitals bankrupt in Hawaii; The Nasty Truth about online retailers.
*
2:10 clip Xmas lights in Japan; Scotland Vitamin D to stave off scabies; Cancer Pineapple enzyme better than chemo; 2011 – Year of the Dupe “A timeline & history: One year into the engineered ‘Arab Spring,’ one step closer to global hegemony…”, 13:54 clip The globalization of war and Yemen; Biofuels Not the smartest use of resources; Spying Devices US interfering again, and Lebanon “The “… the upcoming peaceful transition of rule in Syria.”?!?” wrh.com.

Criminal US threats to Iran; CC “Outside of a few skeptical bloggers, you will not see this story anywhere else.”; Dictatorship See the heading and realize NAmerica is no different than the old USSR; Iran guilty of 9-11, ObL died in Dec. 2001 and Shrek is a neocon. What more can one possibly want? Patriot Missiles Being sold here, there and everywhere; Mentally Ill flood ERs in States as services cut; Politics Three meatheads with a couple of loose screws; Frosted Cupcakes “These people are just NUTS!” wrh.com; Somalia The US Fed and ECB may bankrupt the west, in conjunction with all these new wars being started; Shrinks and Drugs in Never-NeverLand; Baby Formula Probe widens beyond Enfamil; Dump the Politicos! People are finally clueing in to how corrupt politicos are.

#265 Bottoms_Up on 12.24.11 at 9:55 pm

Merry Garthmas to all, especially the gold bugs, may you find a lump of coal in your stocking. lol

And if you press on it really hard you can turn it into diamond.

#266 Dave on 12.24.11 at 10:05 pm

From the Realturd that writes a blog at:
http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/

“In my upcoming article in The Grid, I make five predictions for 2012, and one of them is that I don’t expect a double-digit percentage increase in prices in Toronto real estate. My colleagues might kill me for saying that, but the November 2011 prices were 10% higher than November 2010, and I don’t see that continuing. Could we see a year of 1-3% growth? Some of my blog readers (especially “AndSoItIsWritten”) are predicting impending doom.

If Garth Turner can be wrong for five years in a row, maybe others can be as well.

I don’t fashion myself a “salesperson” before a Realtor, so I’m not going to simply predict another boom year when I don’t see it happening.”

A shame his reading comprehension regarding this here blog isn’t as great as his ego.

#267 MarcFromOttawa on 12.24.11 at 10:08 pm

#245 Devil’s Advocate

You are a hypocrite because you’ve quit this blog atleast 2 or 3 times and you keep coming back.