Dogma

On the day they went to their bank (TD Canada Trust) in Victoria to arrange a home equity loan for more renos, the local daily ran a story on the country’s real estate market. “Canada’s housing market is still chugging along steadily as sales activity nudged higher and prices continued to climb in November, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association said Thursday,” the CP article read. Added CREA’s crafty economist Gregory Klump, “Current trends for resale housing and new home construction suggest that tightened mortgage regulations are working as intended and fostering economic stability.”

And this was the story’s conclusion: “Despite economic turmoil in the rest of the world, Canadians continue to see real estate as a sure thing: A total of 432,048 homes have traded hands across Canada between January and the end of November, up 2.1 per cent from the same period last year, CREA says.”

Sounds good, right? Well, not in the bank.

Writing on this blog ‘Victoria’ said, “our house has already decreased 8%. TD will lend us only half of what we asked for.” So after investing $75,000 already in renovations, the place is worth about what they paid. “Mature neighbourhood, Mature trees, 1/2 acre. I am sick to my stomach.”

So the disconnect grows between the media reality of the housing market, and the actual experience of many people who are growing encumbered by their real estate. The big news out of Bunkerland this week was the sale of a home in the area for a million dollars. Trouble is, that was a $600,000 haircut from the asking price and it took seven months to find a buyer. This hood, by the way, has almost three million people living within a 35-minute drive.

In fact, while prices are up in the GTA (you can thank a suicide squad of fervent condo speckers for that), sales are down. Ditto in wide swaths of the so-called Golden Horsehoe. CREA claims the market overall is ‘balanced’ and is actually edging back to being in favour of the sellers, but it’s tough to see that. Todd in downtown Vancouver was ecstatic to finally sell his property after four months and three price cuts, while on the once-sizzling west side Aaron needed five months to wrestle up an offer, which was half a million less than the market suggested last Spring.

The last two days I’ve been in what’s arguably the most expensive real estate market in Atlantic Canada, yet every block has an active listing a year old.

But even if CREA’s right, looking in the rear view mirror gives no reflection of what lies ahead. As this pathetic blog’s been pointing out, there’s no reason for real estate optimism. No reason to believe 2012 will bring more consumer demand, more optimism, a new wave of borrowing, higher sales or swelling prices.

Figure it out. Stats Can (the government) says wages and salaries have crumbled below the rate of inflation. The Bank of Canada (almost the government) says we’re in debt as never before with families vulnerable to any shocks. F (decidedly the government) says there is the ‘potential for crisis’ if the global economy continues to go limp. Bank economists (who advise the government) have slashed their growth forecasts and also foamed over personal debt.

Meanwhile people have borrowed, on average, 7% more than they owed last year. The cost of living has risen 2.6%. Incomes are up 1.1%. And the cost of an average house in the GTA is ahead 9.7%.

What’s wrong with this picture? How can any delusionally horny young couple getting a mortgage for 95% of the value of a house believe this is a safe time to buy? How can CREA ethically say we’re headed for a seller’s market?

Real estate risks are enormous.

I met with a couple last night who paid $1.4 million five years ago for commercial real estate catering to an annual influx of tourists from the US and Europe. When they took over in early 2007, it made complete sense. Today, with border barriers in North America and turmoil in Europe, their business is bleeding all over them. The real estate, improved with hundreds of thousands of dollars, is worth maybe half what they shelled out in 2007. But, there are no buyers, no nibbles, no showings, even after ten months on the market.

More risks lie ahead. There’s been chatter on this blog this week about the US presidential race. If Obama were to fall to a Republican, especially Ron Paul, for example, the economic implications would be intense. Slashed government spending, reduced entitlements, the elimination of whole departments and a new wave of American protectionism would sacrifice growth and recovery on the altar of dogma. Canada would be collateral damage. GDP would drop as exports dwindled, unemployment could hit double digits (it’ll be 8% next year anyway) and debt-addled families could find themselves living in houses with dwindling equity and vanishing net worth.

None of these things – US politics, Europe, macroeconomics – can you control. Only your own actions. So here’s the 2012 agenda: kill debt, diversify, get liquid.

And don’t believe everything you read. Except here.

203 comments ↓

#1 TheRealTruth on 12.15.11 at 8:44 pm

The problem I have is…

You pick and choose which stats to use thereby invalidating, at least discrediting, your hypothesis.

Eg. Lets use statscan stats this time, but not inflation stats, but population stats, but not sales stats…etc etc etc.

As opposed to the bogus stats you’re famous for? — Garth

#2 s on 12.15.11 at 8:46 pm

Let’s get serious as moral as Ron Paul is he has no chance of winning the US Presidency.

#3 Carlos on 12.15.11 at 8:47 pm

Ouch. NYE resolution: figure out how to balance rest of my holdings….

#4 Josef on 12.15.11 at 8:53 pm

First!!!!! OH YEAH BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!

#5 SafetyBear on 12.15.11 at 8:56 pm

Australian realtors are doing the same BS spruiking down under. Property is a “safe haven” to “park your money” whereas the volatile market “spooks investors”. The sheeple are, as always, going exactly where the barking dog wants them.

#6 curious! on 12.15.11 at 9:01 pm

When will values in Mississauga start falling? And not just 5% but more like 15-20%?

My gut feeling says it may not at all unless the economic/jobs situation worsens and remains so for a pro-longed period i.e. 5-6 years..and I dont think it will remain in a funk that long…

PPL in GTA can afford to hold their houses for a few years from now.

#7 Daisy Mae on 12.15.11 at 9:03 pm

“Despite economic turmoil in the rest of the world, Canadians continue to see real estate as a sure thing: A total of 432,048 homes have traded…”

*****************

So! It IS ‘different here’! What a hoot! LOL

#8 Calgary Bubble on 12.15.11 at 9:07 pm

Here is a condo that’s for sale in Calgary. The real estate agents are still pedaling the same you deserve this life style (you work hard in the oil patch) and real estate will go up forever:

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listing_detail-6760745.html

If you go into the mortgage calculator above this listing and you put in a solid 20% down payment, and a stretched to the limits 30yr amortization, your monthly payment for the condo will be about $2,900.

So sure, you deserve this luxurious life style paying on average $1,400/month in interest over the FIRST 20 YEARS.

This condo is not worth buying unless you pay with cash and prices stay flat or go up. The average rent for a 2-bedroom condo in Calgary is just over $1,000, so you can get an above average condo for JUST THE INTEREST you would be paying on this FOR THE FIRST 20 YEARS.

Great condo and no commitment for the FIRST 20 YEARS is just the type of life style this real estate agent is trying to sell, making this condo an OXYMORON, and the greater fool who buys it for that price an OXYMORON.

#9 LJ on 12.15.11 at 9:09 pm

Looks like the rating agencies got bored with Europe:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/moodys-turns-canada-ontario-outlook-revised-negative-softening-economic-outlook-cited

#10 TurnerNation on 12.15.11 at 9:15 pm

About this Squamish townhouse receivership sale:
I saw a newpaper add offering a further $15,000 discount until end of year!

http://www.coastalvillageliving.com/

#11 Spiltbongwater on 12.15.11 at 9:23 pm

It is amazing how with a little marijuana I really don’t care about unemployment stats, house prices, inflation or debt to income ratios. I think I see the problems people have, they worry about stuff they have no control over….what was the question?

#12 Daisy Mae on 12.15.11 at 9:24 pm

“…fervent condo speckers…”

*****************

They must be sweating blood. Serves them right.

#13 Stinky the Fish on 12.15.11 at 9:25 pm

“How can any delusionally horny young couple getting a mortgage for 95% of the value of a house believe this is a safe time to buy?”

Agreed. The 5% cash back is popular so maybe it’s higher than that.

“If Obama were to fall to a Republican, especially Ron Paul, for example, the economic implications would be intense.”

Shout out for Ron Paul from Garth?!? Having Ron Paul run the United States seems scary to me and a lot of his voters I don’t think realize the economic implications. With that being said, the candidates all seem so bad in the United States with their two party system. But I’d love to see it happen just for the shock value. I don’t think United States is ready for that kind of change just yet.

The media only shows the positives for real estate… After EVERY time they mention a house price increase, there should be a mention of increase in household debt. People don’t understand the connection, and our education system and media – it’s their role to educate people. It’s absolutely pathetic because you know who they are catering to.

On the other hand, I was happy to watch the realtor in Toronto yesterday in the program you showed us. He told Canadians that he “sold everything” and “practice what he preaches”… ahhh a breath of fresh air. We need more of that.

#14 sam.i.am on 12.15.11 at 9:29 pm

C’mon Garth, fill us in, where is the most expensive re mkt in Atl Canada? St. John’s?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/12/15/biz-housing-prices-canada.html

#15 TurnerNation on 12.15.11 at 9:30 pm

The house pumpers claim immigration as the panacea, but what kind of jobs may be obtained?

Canadians with Ethnic Names Less Likely to Get Resume Callbacks, Study Finds

A recent study as to why immigrants are struggling so much more in Canada’s job market today reveals some startling findings: A lot of it may come down to ethnicity. “Why do some employers prefer to interview Matthew, but not Samir?” This is the title of a new study from two University of Toronto researchers interested in ferreting out ethnic bias by human resource professionals in Canada’s largest cities. University of Toronto researchers Philip Oreopoulos and Diane Decheif e-mailed thousands of randomly created resumes in response to job postings across multiple occupations in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver between February and September 2010. “Combining all three cities, resumes with English-sounding names are 35 percent more likely to receive callbacks than resumes with Indian or Chinese names,” the researchers wrote.

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/69374/canadians-with-ethnic-names-less-likely-to-get-resume-callbacks-study-finds/

But if I went to another country I, too, would badly stick out: “Hi I’m calling abooot the job ad eh! Do yous guys serve double doubles and poutine in the cafeteria?”

#16 Daisy Mae on 12.15.11 at 9:36 pm

“But even if CREA’s right…”

******************

Well, they’re not. All the listings on our board in this gated community have expired and have been removed. Except for one — and owner is an RE agent. She’s dug in her heels. Her price is, and remains, very firm.

#17 Daisy Mae on 12.15.11 at 9:40 pm

“The last two days I’ve been in what’s arguably the most expensive real estate market in Atlantic Canada, yet….”

**************************

Holy cow! Doesn’t matter WHERE you are, you manage to keep this blog up! Kudos!

#18 lord lucan on 12.15.11 at 9:41 pm

One reason why Canadians have a hard time telling the CREA BS apart from the reality is the lack of information about the housing market.

Most of the evidence about Canadian houses staying on the market for months and sellers discounting prices is anecdotal.

In the UK, however there are sites like Property Snake (name from the game Snakes and Ladders):

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/

Just enter a post code (say SE19 for South London), and you can see how long properties have been on the market, and what the discounts on the asking price have been.

In the USA there is Zillow and it’s ‘Zestimates’ showing how roughly how much a property should be worth as a guide.

While anyone can check the MLS listings on Realtor.ca, the Canadian government however, considers sold prices as private data.

You can only find these out by checking the Land Registry or sites like MPAC — for a fee.

Canadians should have more free access to information on home sale prices and estimates.

#19 sam.i.am on 12.15.11 at 9:47 pm

“paid $1.4 million five years ago for commercial real estate catering to an annual influx of tourists from the US and Europe.”

Sounds like something related to Humber Valley Resort. Now THERE was a sound business plan! What could possibly go wrong.

#20 Sebastien on 12.15.11 at 9:55 pm

I found a mistake, Ron Paul is not a protectionist. Like all libertarians, he advocates free trade like Hong Kong.

#21 wtf????? on 12.15.11 at 9:56 pm

You imply that maintaining the staus quo of government expenditures on both sides of the border is a good thing for taxpayers. I beg to differ…slashing ‘whole departments’ is exactly what is needed…yesterday ! Ontario..case in point

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/moodys-turns-wary-eye-from-euro-basket-cases-to-ontario/article2272992/

Maintaining a cushy lifestyle with full pension benefits for millions of useless civil servants has led every jurisdiction into massive unsustainable debt and an ever escalating taxation shock for the citizen….obviously…like Kyoto and Keynsian economics… this must stop……we’ve hit the wall….we taxpayers are being bled out……100% is everything !!!

This fear mongering by the civil service and the brain dead thralls who support them is self serving in the extreme. We can function with smaller government…the fact that the Cons have expanded the numbers under it’s pervue is simply insane and a death knell to the tax payer.

Just like the CBC pronouncing it’s dreamy wishes after the Obama election saying ‘Canada needs an Obama’…..the Canadian taxpayer should be fervently hoping that we get a Ron Paul administration at some point to save us from 100% taxation enslavement.

The writing is on the wall…….we can’t afford any more of this waste…we need tax relief. With government debt growing the way it is we will face an aggressive regime of tax hikes to pay for the foibles of the an elite whose pronouncements and achievements are diametrically opposed.

#22 Coho on 12.15.11 at 10:00 pm

Granted, people committing to huge mortgages considering the state of things in the world is risky. Being ignorant, unaware, and close minded puts people at risk.

As far as the presidential race: You can’t blame people for pinning their hopes on Ron Paul. Americans fall for this false hope every time. That is why there aren’t more people protesting on the streets. They’re hoping the 10 minutes it takes to cast their vote in the next election will be enough to save their country, which is laziness, false hope, and denial all rolled up into one.

What could Ron Paul change if elected as President under the Republican ticket? Probably not much because he’d be voted in carrying a bunch of sold-out deadbeats. One set of balls in the Administration won’t be enough to get the USA off the path of self-destruction. He’s going to need help, but those dictating to PM’s and Presidents will ensure he won’t get it. Things, in my opinion, will remain the same. Remember Obama on the campaign trail? Change you can believe in? Maybe the bus driver has changed, but the bus is going along the same route.

America needs to get off the whiskey before it dies. A hangover is better than death, is it not? Ron Paul to those that like the status quo appears extreme, but so would bill s 1867 if it becomes law. That will be the last nail in the coffin and the end of the USA as far as the principles on which it was founded.

Jobs have gone, the middle has shrunk, and so is hope and optimism for many. And to top it off, the Bill of Rights is about done for. How prosperous have people been under despotic governments? How does tyranny and the hopes, dreams, and net worth of the average “subject” jive?

#23 Victoria on 12.15.11 at 10:02 pm

I just spoke to a colleague of our RE agent (he is away in the Bahamas or someplace hot). I told him our story about our reno – we are not a young couple btw – have been in the market over 20 years, Europe, Toronto and Victoria. We have made money, broke even and have had money swindled from us in this house by a drug addict designer – I wish we were a young couple – We did not get a mortgage for 95% but most of our assets are in RE (as well as my husband’s company – we are not very liquid) anyway I said, “So how come the CREA says property is going up and the bank says it is going down???? (btw – we even ripped out the crappy baseboard heating and put in 2 heat pumps with a/c, air purifying system – we ripped out the pink carpeting – gave the house a well needed facelift, new kitchen 1 new bathroom, start of master).

Is everyone’s house going up but our house? Is there something we don’t know? Well, he said – the CREA has a real disconnect about what is happening is the RE world. I said it is not really disconnect it is more like Bullshit/Fraud – choose your word! You know and I know that the RE people are trying to keep the bubble going.

Anyway, we putting the house on the market at a good price and hope for the best. I have read your blog for years. Trying to find a house to rent will be hard, 4 kids, dogs, cats etc. I am sure we will find something – I would even life in a double wide :-). I would love to leave Victoria but not possible. Cheers! and Thank-you!

#24 Victoria on 12.15.11 at 10:05 pm

If I might add – when we were going to finish the reno I enquired about a gas fireplace in the family room. The existing one is old and leaks cold air. I was just wondering about the cost. A young twenty-something came by to give me a quote $3,000.00 I said I didn’t want to spend that much money that we really didn’t have available he said to me “Come on – just put it on a credit card”. This I guess is the new way of thinking. The young lady (again early twenty something) at the bank who was very nice and said they would only lend us 1/2 of what we wanted said to my husband – oh just stick the rest on a credit card????? This was a bank.

#25 Victor on 12.15.11 at 10:07 pm

Garth, interesting ending to that Muskoka condo auction you referenced a few weeks back. What a joke!

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1101502–muskoka-lake-condo-auction-sparks-more-bitterness-than-buzz

#26 Peter NYC on 12.15.11 at 10:11 pm

Ron Paul would make the USA more like Canada. Greater fiscal responsibility and with a defense system geared to protecting the homeland vs. projecting power globally. Don’t kid yourself Garth. RP was lecturing Geenspan on how the monetary system works when you were in grade school. The man is no fool. He won’t plunge the system. He knows how fiat money is printed. He will probably print it for a very long time before attempting to make wholesale changes to the system if he were elected. The difference is he will actually do constructive things with printed money this as opposed to kowtowing to WallSreet interests. None of the contenders except Romney and rp understand how the military industrial complex functions Romney will work the sratus quo and eventually use the system to make himself even richer than he is. I became a US citizen 3 weeks ago. Most exciting thing I can do with it is vote for RP whether as republican or independent Are you up for a debate on this subject on one of your Tuesday calls?

#27 not 1st on 12.15.11 at 10:12 pm

I seriously think that people don’t care what their indebtedness is anymore. I mean they watch government and companies borrow and leverage like there is no tomorrow and nothing bad happens to them so why shouldn’t they take the plunge too.

And the advertising aimed at getting people to spend is unstoppable. They get at you when you are kid and then you have no idea of what restraint is. Half the time you buy junk you won’t need or use in 6 months anyway. its just a purchase to get a little rush and then its over and you still have the useless piece of junk in your basement.

For example, the marketing scheme that talked millions of women to shelling out $1000 for a stupid patterned handbag. A useful purse costs easily under $100. And even Mercedes Benz is in the mix now trying to get young debt slaves to jump right to their cars for $45k when something $25 or $30k would suffice.

#28 not 1st on 12.15.11 at 10:17 pm

I remember when I was working my second job. I needed some time off for a few hours to do some paperwork at my lawyers office.

The next day my boss asked me what did you need to do on your time off. I replied, I got a mortgage. At that point, he just smiled ear to ear. He knew right then and there he had me for good. I was in debt, illiquid and now desperately needed all that paycheck each month to keep the lights on. I was his bitch for another 5 years after that until I thankfully built some extreme equity thanks to F’s bubblicious market. Now I am the one smiling everyday when I don’t have to start the car at 7 am and sit in a pathetic cubicle all day.

#29 Cory on 12.15.11 at 10:19 pm

Even if Ron Paul gets elected (and he should!!), he will be shot as soon as he says he will end the Fed.

I just threw up. — Garth

#30 Bobby on 12.15.11 at 10:25 pm

Asking a realtor for accurate property advice is much like asking a financial adviser what mutual fund to buy.

I have been looking at homes in Victoria and have looked at considerable overpriced junk. Many of the properties are sitting empty.

Many realtors cite the supposed low vacancy rate as an incentive to buy a property for investment. Yet, the reality is that those stats are based on properties built specifically for rental. Most were built back in the 70’s.

The reality is there is an ocean full of empty houses and condos available for rent, with the true vacancy rate being above 5%.

It is starting to get really ugly out there now!

Financial advisors do not sell mutual fund. Mutual fund salesguys pretending to be advisors sell mutual funds. Let’s be accurate. — Garth

#31 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.15.11 at 10:33 pm

Here’s my theory on the disconnect between CREA-reported average prices and the real price trends: the difference is all captured in home reno debt!

If you go through MLS listings, there are very few homes for sale that haven’t undergone significant renos (if not complete guts) within the past 1-3 years.

And, when a $500,000 house gets $100,000 in renos, and the owners are going to try to sell that place at $600,000 or higher to make back every penny spent… because they’ve likely got $100,000 sitting on a HELOC or 2nd mortgage.
(and – don’t get me started on the “Love It Or List It” and “Property Brothers” math where the price of the home always goes up about 2x or the reno costs)

#32 Jeff on 12.15.11 at 10:33 pm

curious! on 12.15.11 at 9:01 pm
When will values in Mississauga start falling? And not just 5% but more like 15-20%?

My gut feeling says it may not at all unless the economic/jobs situation worsens and remains so for a pro-longed period i.e. 5-6 years..and I dont think it will remain in a funk that long…

PPL in GTA can afford to hold their houses for a few years from now.
——————————————————————

PPL can not afford to hold their houses for one month. 30-40% live paycheck to paycheck and people have been MAXING OUT THEIR CREDIT JUST TO LIVE IN THEIR HOME THEY CAN NOT AFFORD. Canada’s house of crads is starting to fall all accoss Canada. Smart buyers are low balling and walking away from deals since they have the power. Best to wait and watch the prices fall.

#33 mid-Ontario on 12.15.11 at 10:34 pm

Ontario about to go on credit watch…about time.
Local RE remains strong in part to southeners GTA types heading north to retire and pay 1/3 for twice the property.
Ron Paul who is the only politician who calls it correctly will never be elected President.
“Real estate risks are enormous.” – agreed

#34 rosie on 12.15.11 at 10:38 pm

Beware every thing you read. Unless it’s the Daily Mail, U.K. That’s all true.

#35 Mr. Lahey on 12.15.11 at 10:44 pm

#17 Daisy Mae

“The last two days I’ve been in what’s arguably the most expensive real estate market in Atlantic Canada, yet….”
“Holy cow! Doesn’t matter WHERE you are, you manage to keep this blog up! Kudos.”

Daisy Mae the former right honourable parliamentarian, mystic reader of financial tea leaves, financial prognosticator extraordinaire, defender of rational thought against gold huggers, Ron Paul groupies, tin foil hat extremists, all knowing, all seeing, all encompassing, luminary visionary, bearded financial prophet and all round good fellow, Garth Turner has been firmly planted in Sunnyvale Trailer Park for the past two days and having a total blast with everyone. The FASTPGFBDCParty has started early and it is raging as I type. The bearded one is leading everyone in a down east jig, attired in his highland Scotland tartan. I can’t believe the energy our fearless oracle is exhibiting. Carney and Paul look like lost souls as they cower in the corner of the dance hall, vainly going over strategy in their upcoming debate with the luminous, sagacious one. I have to go folks, this party is just too much fun!

#36 Chub steer on 12.15.11 at 10:51 pm

Obviously a different dogma being preached. Which is a better allocator of capital? You spending your money or your govt spending your money?

#37 Scott in Gibsons on 12.15.11 at 10:57 pm

Garth is a typical Boomer. His entire life experience occurred during the biggest debt run-up in history. A generation that lived beyond their means and thinks that this is normal, and anyone that tries to correct it is dangerous or crazy. No, Ron Paul and sensible people like him are not dangerous or crazy, the dimwits that allowed and participated in the debt bubble are the dangerous ones. But now the damage is done, and we have a choice. Either we continue to be selfish and delusional and wait for the uncontrolled collapse to turn our lives upside down (bibles, bullets, and bullion scenario); or we act as responsible adults, assess our situation and make controlled changes to right our economic course. Garth makes fun of those that see a collapse coming, but ironically he advocates the inaction that ensures this outcome. Go figure!

Interesting that the fattest debt pigs these days appear to be the 20 and 30-somethings with their 5% down and 95% mortgages. So much for the Boomer argument. You went downhill from there. — Garth

#38 Usuk on 12.15.11 at 11:10 pm

#4 Josef on 12.15.11 at 8:53 pm
First!!!!! OH YEAH BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!

—————–

OMG, you are SO AWESOME. Can you please send us some more of your keen insights? Come, oh Oracle, shower us with your greatness. Don’t hold back now – I know you’ve been waiting in mommy’s basement all evening hitting the refresh button so you could try to get that first comment in. Truly heartbreaking that you’re only 4th. Don’t cry, little one, mommy still loves you. Unfortunately, the rest of us think you’re an idiot. Crawl back into your hole and stay there. U suk.

Usuk

#39 Me on 12.15.11 at 11:11 pm

You chide governments for spending us into oblivion and you rail on a political candidate for honestly wanting to cut spending. wtf?

#40 Canadian Watchdog on 12.15.11 at 11:17 pm

#21 wtf?????

And whose fault is bigger government?

#15 TurnerNation

That is not true as this chart reveals what’s really happening in the jobs market. http://i40.tinypic.com/2vn0sb8.png

#41 Herb on 12.15.11 at 11:18 pm

Watched the CBC Ottawa news with the wife tonight, and when the presenter got to CREA and its claim that the housing market was “stable”, the wife noted that RE had not featured in the nightly news in all the years the market was rising, and that RE now must be in real trouble to be spun every night.

Smart lady.

#42 City Slicker on 12.15.11 at 11:20 pm

What would be wrong with Paul getting elected. The longer they keep kicking the can down the road the more apocalyptic the economic pain will be. And his rise in popularity means the masses are believing him.

#43 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 12.15.11 at 11:20 pm

CREA’s livelihood is dependent on increasing home sales.

Asking CREA for an opinion, is like asking a Real Estate Agent if home prices will go up, or asking GM’s VP of Sales if he thinks car sales are going to up.

When these journalists quote CREA and publish it as if it is credible news, it shows that these reporters are home-owners and have a personal interest in supporting or fuelling home prices.

Don’t be fooled into thinking that reporters, who are humans with the same need to maximum personal wealth, are 100% objective.

Even though commenters have mentioned and complained about this for many years, newspaper still quote CREA. It’s reprehensible journalism. It’s almost like Noam Chomsky’s “Manufacturing Consent”.

See:

Housing, the most manipulated market in the world
http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html
(Canada’s manipulation is elaborated on in bottom half)

#44 Herb on 12.15.11 at 11:22 pm

#21 wtf?????,

WTF!!!!! You don’t know what you’re talking about, but don’t let that stop you.

#45 thewhitenight on 12.15.11 at 11:24 pm

I am wondering(am i?) What art thou thoughts on the subject of that dirty word-protectionism? Me dost thou thinkest it cometh by another word(s). The United Knaves of Rockefeller have been double counting home sales, The Peasants Republic of Cheap Goods has been building amusement parks for the ghosts of mongul lords. The Country with No History(Germany) is, well, still German. David Cameron? Wasnt he the guitar player for Floyd?

#46 sam.i.am on 12.15.11 at 11:29 pm

@kevin fr 2 blogs ago

The original posting was in relation to RP support, hence US citations.

Here’s RP’s take:

http://www.ronpaul.com/2008-09-28/ron-paul-on-legal-tender-laws/

And if that is not enough :

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/31/5103.html

The reason that gold is not money is simply because the government (who has the legal power to enact such rules) says it is not. Some people don’t like being told gold isn’t money – they get upset. Hence, my assertion that owning gold and considering it as money is a form of rebellion against ‘the man’.

#47 Snowboid on 12.15.11 at 11:32 pm

#15 TurnerNation on 12.15.11 at 9:30 pm…

Have to agree, several times I interviewed candidates for systems analyst and programmer analyst positions who had legally changed their names to Anglo equivalents.

Although they had credible resumes, good references (from their home country), applicable degrees and a few years work experience – in the end they didn’t get short-listed because their spoken and/or written english was so poor.

The irony is the staff we had previously hired from Asia, Europe and South America did have reasonable english skills but had kept their birth names!

One young lady came in for a post-interview discussion, and I told her point-blank that she needed to improve her english. I helped her sign up for some ESL courses, and last I heard she was using her birth-name again and had been hired as a PA.

She sent me a moving card, that had obviously taken a lot of thought and work to compose, thanking me for profusely for my honesty.

In my opinion, there is no excuse for dismissing a resume or denying an interview based on an applicants name.

#48 Joe The Plumber on 12.15.11 at 11:33 pm

Garth,

Having second thoughts about Ron Paul?

He’ll lose, of course. Bad example.

#49 WI Boomer on 12.15.11 at 11:34 pm

Well today is my final working day. Tomorrow I dismantle my home office, and Tuesday return all the stuff to my boss. It has been a fun ride here for 24+ years.
Next week I enter that “NEW” phase of life called retirement. I will be one of the LUCKY ones with a pension, along with a bulky 401K, and a ROTH (tax free)
savings account. 15 yr old home that is paid off, and no debt. A wonderful wife who has put up with me for nearly 38 years. (There still are saints in the world).

We both worked dam hard to get here. The world wasn’t so much of a different place in 1974 when we started our lives together. We were broke. I worked for the Railroad, and earned a whopping $12,000 a yr.
BIG MONEY then…. Below Poverty now. Here in the US we were sufferring a NASTY recession. Unemployment went over 8%, we had inflation as well. The following year our President would resign in disgrace, replaced by the un-elected Gerald Ford. People were in debt.

Today, we have 8% unemployment, but low inflation, and clueless politicians. Problems in Europe and we still have War. People are in debt, probably more debt.
Not so different.

YOU are still responsible for your own actions. Choices,
Actons, Faith, and fortune all play their roles. Life will continue not that much changed from the years that have passed. There still is no “FREE LUNCH” had there been one, you can bet your behind I would have found it by now. There still is opportnuity. To work, to invest, to be wise, be diligent, to love & be loved.

I will be taking a break from this blog for a while.
Thank you, Mr. Turner for speaking wise warnings. How many take heed of you sage advice may never be known. It is good advice, on Debt, on investing, on housing, on divesting debt.

I’ve noticed today, we seem an “instant society” we want to microwave our problems, so that they are “fixed” in minutes. Sorry gang, some take many years to achieve like being financially fit, and able to tell others to kiss your behind. It feels good when you can do THAT one!

Thanks to all the regulars who post here, live like you mean it. Good Luck all.

#50 thewhitenight on 12.15.11 at 11:35 pm

Ceasar said in his Gallic Wars, ahem, “when the gods intend to make a man pay for his crimes, they generally allow him to enjoy moments of success and a long period of impunity, so that he feels his reverse of fortune, when it eventually comes, all the more keenly.” I am so [email protected]#king cool.

#51 Nemesis on 12.15.11 at 11:50 pm

As ever… such fun, and generally practical/thoughtful advice.

One thing, however, which I had previously reflected upon but intentionally neglected to mention…

“three million people living within a 35-minute drive” – Hon. GT…

And your detractors called you a ‘fear monger’, a ‘survivalist’… or much worse. Orbital HogTown doesn’t quite fit that profile, does it?

Accordingly, your Hummer’s trailer hitch justifiably deserves those ornamental testicles.

Visionarys/AuthenticLeaders don’t worry about proximal danger.

They just do what’s right. Eh?

It’s high time you returned to ameliorating our ‘Political Disease’, OldChap.

Before things go ‘Fractal’ (hint: really close)

#52 thewhitenight on 12.15.11 at 11:57 pm

I have to say Garth is The Modern Day Prometheus. Ive followed his story since his ousting from the ‘party’ which led me to this blog. Ive never blogged before this and im glad for it. I sat on the lines waiting to make a move. I vote Garth as Man of The Year(Beard of the Year). I dont own prop. So im a pleb. But i feel that Garth is sincere and tearworthy to some. Im starting to tear up as i write this but its the 10$ portugese wine i tell ya! Its good! Some sediment though but thats okay.

#53 thewhitenight on 12.15.11 at 11:59 pm

The Notorious BIG said, ahem, “keep extra clips for extra shit.”

#54 pat on 12.16.11 at 12:00 am

Ron Paul’s not a protectionist, he’s a noninterventionist. Reducing the dead weight of government will be a good thing in the long run. A conservative who is rejected by his party because he warns of excessive debt. Now who does that sound like?

#55 Blacksheep on 12.16.11 at 12:05 am

No worries Garth, Dr. Ron Paul will never be president.
Diebold Election Systems Inc. is on the job.

“a new wave of American protectionism would sacrifice growth and recovery on the altar of dogma”.

Taken straight off Wiki:

“Paul is a proponent of free trade and rejects protectionism, advocating, conducting open trade, travel, communication, and diplomacy with other nations”

He is just brave, principled man trying the save a country from it self.

Just my respectful, opinion.

take care,
Blacksheep

#56 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 12.16.11 at 12:07 am

Garth said:
If Obama were to fall to a Republican, especially Ron Paul, for example, the economic implications would be intense. Slashed government spending, reduced entitlements, the elimination of whole departments and a new wave of American protectionism would sacrifice growth and recovery on the altar of dogma. Canada would be collateral damage.

************************************

Well, bring it on! At some point a country deep in debt HAS to cut spending and damn the torpedos.

With all the crap in Greece they NEVER made any serious cuts to government spending.

What would be wrong with a 25% cut to government salaries in the U.S. and also Canada when money is tight? Government workers could take it or leave their jobs.

Every study shows government workers are over-paid compared to the private sector. Let’s get on with it!

It will all be entertainment to those who are well prepared to weather the storm and pick up bargains as others go bust.

Sad, but there are consequences to too much debt. The piper must be paid, one way or another. Now or later. I vote for now.

Spoken bravely like a person who has wealth. — Garth

#57 Waterloo Resident on 12.16.11 at 12:11 am

LISTEN UP EVERYBODY: YOU ARE NOT GOING TO LIKE THIS !:

Remember a few weeks ago, I warned you that it was Europe who was suffering massive rate hikes and that we could safely rest for years before we come under the spotlight for our overspending and our rates started skyrocketing. Well, I was wrong, its happening NOW !

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/moodys-turns-wary-eye-from-euro-basket-cases-to-ontario/article2272992/

What this means is that in the next 6 to 9 months our short term interest rates AND MORTGAGE RATES will most likely jump up by 3 to 4 full percentage points, just like they have happened to Italy and Spain when they came under the spotlight. This is definitely NOT good news for Ontario people who have debt, and I thought we had another 4 to 6 years before this was going to happen; I was wrong.

And still are. — Garth

#58 Marcel on 12.16.11 at 12:12 am

Where do you forcast oil next year? is it going to take it on the chin as well?

#59 Angela on 12.16.11 at 12:23 am

I finally had a chance to read a newspaper this week and in it was the article about household debt reaching new highs. There was one paragraph about that. And the other 350 words of the article were Ben Tal listing all the reasons why this is a non-issue. “Do you pay off your mortgage in one year? No. You pay it off in 20. It’s all relative.” And on and on about how lines of credit borrowing is declining from a few years ago, and besides, it’s only a problem if we have a major event like interest rates going up sharply overnight. It was just one thing after another about why this is not cause for alarm, it’s not a problem, we’re all still prudent borrowers, savers, etc, that only 6% of people are servicing debt with more than 40% of takehome pay, the majority of people are below that. And the best part, that income to debt is a stupid way to look at it, it should be monthly expense ratio and somehow we’re fine because we can service it monthly, so forget about the total debt ratio. I can’t read that crap anymore! To go to such lengths to convince people that everything is hunky dory is just beyond me, especially when everyone else is ringing alarm bells. You’d expect a perhaps more moderate view since he’s going to look like a complete fool in a couple of years when everything he says is proved to be complete BS.

#60 Angela on 12.16.11 at 12:26 am

Oh, sorry, I said the best part. Debt ratios wasn’t the best part, the best part was at the end, because it’s always thrown in right at the end, that the Chinese invasion is only just starting, that foreign money is making house prices go up and the Chinese want to diversify out of China and this is the place to do it. Blah, I just threw up a little in my mouth.

#61 HouseBuster on 12.16.11 at 12:31 am

Just got this info today about income tax increases:

Rates
2011
2012

CPP – Maximum Annual Employee Contribution
$ 2,217.60
$2,306.70

QPP – Annual Maximum Annual Employee Contribution
$ 2,217.60
$2,306.70

EI – Maximum Contribution CANADA
$786.76
$839.97

EI – Maximum Contribution QUEBEC
$623.22
$674.73

QPIP QUEBEC
$343.68
$368.94

WTF???????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#62 PH on 12.16.11 at 12:48 am

I agree with you on the bubble in Canada Real Estate, but I disagree about your views on Ron Paul.

The US is bankrupt if not for having the ability to print money out of thin air. The US debt is 15 trillion (with over 100 trillion in liability on social security, pension, medicare, etc). Right now, there are still a lot of people believing in the USD and the US Tresury, but this won’t last forever. If the US does not start getting it act together, the only way out would be to print money to pay off its debts. Real assets like Gold, Silver, natural resources would hold value and the USD will tank (probably going up in the next a few months since people are not focusing on the US debt problem).

Ron Paul is the only candidate who knows what’s ahead and actually plan to do something about it. The rest of them are just puppets controlled by the big banks.

If Ron Paul wins, there will be a period of recession, but after that, there will be a true recovery. Right now, Obama is only kicking the can down the road and if he repeats, the US will go bankrupt within 10 years.

Ron Paul is the only candidate who does not want another war, want to pull all US armies back to the US. The only one who wants PEACE.

Right now, the deleveraging is getting going, but it will introduce so much pain to the world that all governments would simply start “printing” money to inflate the debts away.

Your theory of the gold bubble pop would eventually prove to be just a big correction. With all the money printing that is expected out of the world, people would start looking into Gold as the real currency. After this correction period, Gold will go higher and higher. It’s going up mainly because paper money is losing value.

#63 Jane24 on 12.16.11 at 12:50 am

…and after reading this I complete on an investment bungalow next week.

Never mind as the mortgage will be £421 a month and the rent £1100 plus in England the property taxes are the tenant’s bill not the landlord’s so a 16% yield. Sweet. In good condition too.

Got to do something to make a pension as the govt can’t be trusted and these downsizing baby boomers will need bungalows.

Cheers

#64 Jsan on 12.16.11 at 12:57 am

It’s OK, China will save the day………or so many people thought.

“China’s epic hangover begins”

China’s credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC’s dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8957289/Chinas-epic-hangover-begins.html

.

#65 Chaddywack on 12.16.11 at 1:02 am

What a cute picture! Merry Christmas everyone :) woof.

#66 thewhitenight on 12.16.11 at 1:04 am

Goddamn portugese wine and some freakin weird [email protected] from Quebec. End of the World type stuff. Tastes like wine. [email protected]#kn guys. You make some good beer. There is hope for the world as long as the beer still flows. All take note. Dionysis is the lord of irrationality. Let irrationality be your guide. It has been mine. Property is for Patricians. [email protected]#k the propertied class. Let them eat gladitorial excrement!

#67 smartalox on 12.16.11 at 1:07 am

So my wife read a magazine article today and announced that we were members of Generation ‘F’ – high earning Vancouverites in our late 30s, ‘F***ed’ because we didn’t buy a house in Vancouver before 2005.

I don’t see it that way: I think that the nickname Generation ‘F’ should be reserved for those that BELIEVED the federal finance minister, and bought houses in Vancouver since 2005 with 5% down and 35 (or 40) year amortizations.

‘F***ed’ indeed

#68 Bill Gable on 12.16.11 at 1:09 am

Anecdotal evidence again, sorry I can’t help it.

Today Georgia Street here in Vancouver should have been crazy, the Lion’s Gate had an accident, but really…traffic was well, thin.

Thin, at this time of year?

At a big box retailer and it was d e a d. People that worked there looked like extras from a Zombie Movie.

This must be a heck of a time to be in retail. I have a friend who ran a killer restaurant here for years, and it’s coming to an end. He can’t make it go.

“It’s like someone turned off a tap”. His bar sales even dropped heavy doube digits.

This is deleveraging. People are getting eviscerated and they are getting cornered.

Bleak?

Not if you have been conservative, diversified and sober.

Unlike the idiots at banks – that gooned fools with 30 year cripplers.

The carnage is breathtaking.

Hope you enjoyed the South Shore, Mr. Turner. Lovely summers – end of the world winters.

#69 Debtfree on 12.16.11 at 1:09 am

@ # 20 sebastien Ah Hongkong looks more the first world capital every year .And Cascadia a backwater third world joke .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong-Zhuhai-Macau_Bridge

#70 FTP - First Time Poster on 12.16.11 at 1:15 am

This title should say it all:

Moody’s Turns To Canada: Ontario Outlook Revised To Negative, “Softening Economic Outlook” Cited

I remember Dalton “I can’t hear you over the sound of my own awesomeness” McGuinty stated a couple years ago how Ontario was the economic engine of Canada. I nearly choked on my dinner, thinking to myself how clueless he really is.

While reading the comments and posts of the last two days about oil and commodities, incl. deleveraging – I would be remiss to not comment. While gold, oil, etc and their related stocks have suffered, the run in commodities isnt over. We haven’t had deleveraging of nations, a reduction in balance sheets or cutting of costs, payments or liabilities.

While we have had some household deleveraging in US households, soverign debt globally is out of step and there has thus been no deleveraging, including the US. While the USD might be a safe haven for a few more years, its days, like that of any empire, are coming to a close.

Interesting and a few cogent arguments all around. Good job Garth!

#71 Trev16 on 12.16.11 at 1:18 am

Garth,

Although I want Ron Paul to win in the US….I know realistically based on how the majority of people get their information from mainstream media it won’t happen. Their minds are programmed from the repeated messages they hear in the media. You know…. kind of like you always hear you need to buy a house no matter what the prices are???

Thus without Ron Paul winning…..things will continue to get worse in the US as they print more money and yes you are right that it will drag Canada down. How long will we have to wait to hear Peter Mckay stand up in the House of Commons to say that we must support the US in their war against Iran?? Guaranteed the US will attack Iran before the US November Election.

How many American Presidents have lost an election while there country was at war? Zero

Once the election is over in the states…..the US will raise interest rates which will force ours up as well. This is when the big time pain will be felt by Canadian homeowners who put less than 10% down. Then the cycle will start as in the US where they can’t sell their homes and their mortgages will be more than the values of their home.

Also for those people who are anti gold and think its a relic perhaps they should look into what happened after Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Hint….money printing…..banks leveraging 40 to 1 and in London they can leverage to infinity as there are no controls….that is why Madoff, MF Global and Enron all went through London.

What a mess we are in as we are not immune from it being in Canada…..I hope people prepare.

Cheers,

Trev16

#72 Carp on 12.16.11 at 1:19 am

For all you wtf and ron paul lovers …..

a lesson on Keynesian economics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics

#73 connie on 12.16.11 at 1:22 am

I do not believe CREA stats I see houses now where I live in Montreal on the market or a year not selling . I do not know how people can even afford to buy them either let alone pay taxes insurance and mainteance.

#74 SmartGirl on 12.16.11 at 1:28 am

Wow, I love this blog. Read it every day now and laugh from the comfort of my rented domicile.

I had to comment after “Hot Properties” came on tonight on CP24 in Toronto. The show featured the host interviewing a mortgage broker and a well known Real Estate Agent (Al Sinclair). I actually started laughing out loud when they began repeating all of which you continually warn people about in this blog – ie. It’s a sellers market; If you were waiting for a bubble, you’ve missed the boat; Housing is affordable in relation to income; etc. They ooze lies as I watch two mcmansions down the road priced at nearly a million each sit idle with no seller and sight. Not to mention the third mcmansion which was taken off the market after no one would buy it for over a million.

See ya later CTV/CP24. I used to love ya, now I loathe ya.

#75 new_era on 12.16.11 at 1:34 am

Moody’s turns wary eye from euro basket cases to Ontario

There you go Garth, Like I said, F will not raise interest rates until he still as road to kick the can.

It appears F is running out of road (Fast).

The perfect Category 7 storm is coming. How do the extremely leverage people feel now!!!!

#76 Humpty Dumpty on 12.16.11 at 1:55 am

Dangerous Dogma

http://www.salon.com/2011/12/15/obama_to_sign_indefinite_detention_bill_into_law/singleton/

You have your agenda for, they have their’s…..

Your money will not save you….. Now matter where you are…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8959836/IMF-chief-Christine-Lagarde-warns-that-global-economic-outlook-is-gloomy.html

#77 betamax on 12.16.11 at 2:03 am

#17 Daisy Mae: “Holy cow! Doesn’t matter WHERE you are, you manage to keep this blog up! Kudos!”

There’s this thing called the internet that allows him to access the blog even when he’s not at home. It’s true.

#78 Two-thirds on 12.16.11 at 2:23 am

Of course this madness will have to end.

The question is, when?

I believe an answer is when we reach “debt saturation.”

Are Canadians there yet?

Don’t think so.

A possible canary in the coalmine would be when car sales drop YOY, even with 0% down, 0% interest, 84 month deals are offered. This has not happened yet – quite the contrary.

Until debt saturation is reached, the market will likely remain irrational longer than most of us RE bears and savers would like. Many will throw in the towel early and embrace the madness (if you can’t beat them, join them). I do not blame them. Some days I would like to go insane myself.

2012 is going to be quite a year.

#79 westopia on 12.16.11 at 2:27 am

Ron Paul is not an isolationist. He’s a non-inventionalist. He would not shut down trade between Canada and the US. He’s also America’s only hope to restore prosperity to that country. Not saying it would be an easy pill to swallow, but it would be needed medicine. The US has two choices in the upcoming election, Ron Paul or borrrow their way out of debt – and everybody knows the latter doesn’t work.

#80 Andrew from Saskatoon on 12.16.11 at 2:30 am

I just got a flyer in the mail the other day about new townhouses on the extreme West side of the city.

http://innovativeresidential.ca/program1.html

Here are the most interesting bullet points on the flyer:

– OWN for as low as $878/month (includes condo fees)
– FREE down payment grants from the City of Saskatoon
– All grants are FREE – no repayment

Please stop and think about this for a second. You might have already known that Saskatoon is currently running a program where new home buyers can borrow the 5% down payment they need. You might have thought that was bad enough.

But a down payment GRANT? Just think about how this works. Basically, the way it works is that if you buy one of the homes, the sellers of the brand-new town houses GIVE you 5% of the agreed-upon price. Let’s say it’s a $200k townhouse. They give you $10k, and you turn around and immediately GIVE IT BACK TO THEM, and this satisfies the CMHC down payment requirements. Of course, from the sellers perspective, this is a brilliant idea. They’re going to get far more interest from prospective buyers, and so naturally the final price is going to be at least 5% higher than it would have been without the grant. So the 5% comes out of their right pocket, goes instantly into their left, and this is a pristine example of our country’s fantastic lending standards and rock-solid banking system.

I want to punch a baby.

#81 Aussie Roy on 12.16.11 at 2:32 am

Aussie Update

IT is one of Sydney’s most controversial buildings and is home to some of the city’s richest and most famous.

But demand to live at Bennelong Apartments, better known as “the Toaster”, appears to have gone stale with 25 luxury units put on the market in the past 18 months.

Overlooking the Harbour and Opera House, the $600 million 12-storey development polarised Sydneysiders in the 1990s, angering many who rightly complained it would block the view from Sydney Cove to the Royal Botanic Gardens.

Existing residents have also complained about noise, diesel fumes from the Harbour and average strata costs of more than $9000 a quarter.

Multimillionaire hotelier Cyril Maloney, who has a personal wealth of $355 million, according to the 2011 BRW Rich List, put his 800sq m 11th-floor apartment on the market in late 2010 with a $30 million price tag.

A strata bill of just over $100,000 a year may have put off buyers as Mr Maloney, 91, rejected a $22 million offer and took it off the market.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/home-sellers-burnt-by-the-toaster/story-e6freuzi-1226223433608

According to the Australian Finance Review, banks down under “have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness, plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis.” Aka a European “Meltdown.” And since we don’t have immediate access to the article, we leave it to Bloomberg First Word to describe for us what the article says:

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority envision worst-case scenario of 12% unemployment, 30% drop in house prices, 40% fall in commercial property values, AFR says

Banks will assume that write-offs, other mitigation measures are unavailable; later stress tests might allow for such steps, AFR says

Australia’s banks have A$87.2b of exposure to Europe, or 2.7% of assets, with A$74.6b of it mostly tied to bank borrowers in France, Germany, Netherlands, AFR says, citing RBA statistics.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/australian-banks-given-one-week-prepare-european-meltdown

‘MELBOURNE homes have lost $200 in value every day for the past nine months.’

That’s $53,800 wiped off the price of an average Melbourne home in 269 days.

And in a 15 km by 12 km square, the price of houses in 10 suburbs fell. Even though these suburbs are less than 16 km from the Melbourne CBD…

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20111215/the-best-property-investment-in-the-world.html

Free subscription required for following articles.

Australia’s housing markets are not suffering from a dramatic property shortage, a senior property analyst says.

UBS head of real estate and contractors research John Freedman says the fall in house prices experienced this year indicates demand is not outstripping supply.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/No-severe-Aust-housing-shortage-analyst-PK6Y8

Boomers and the RE market

The ageing of Australia’s population is expected to accelerate. At present, there are 5 million people over the age of 55 across Australia. Within the next 40 years, that number is expected to exceed 11.5 million. This represents a projected growth rate of 150,000 people per annum.

Within a generation, a third of Australians are going to be aged over 55 years old and close to a quarter will be aged over 65.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/property-Australian-house-prices-real-estate-baby–pd20111215-PK5AV?OpenDocument

#82 nonplused on 12.16.11 at 2:36 am

So Garth, what about putting 40% of your net worth in your home at just over 40 years old? I’ll use 40 since that’s how old my wife is. Is that still ok? Compared to the rent I was paying I am not making much, a 3.2% cap rate, but it’s a much nicer, newer house and better located.

I mostly try to follow the Garthman although I’m over-weight gold, I bought my position well before I read Greater Fool and haven’t rebalanced as aggressively as I probably should have. I haven’t figured out the TFSA yet (not worth the time but I will when I get a chance, and I did have my wife set hers up), and I have to figure out the RRSP self mortgage thing now, but it’ll be at least a couple months before I get to either.

Warning to potential home buyers: Look into the Poly-B plumbing issue if you are buying a home built between say 1978 and 1996. My home inspector noted it and mentioned a controversy, but my insurance company wouldn’t insure for water damage. I’ve found a couple others who will. The problem seems to be mostly in the US where they also used plastic fittings (mine are all copper) and or high water temperature or chlorine. Regardless, it’s a weaker system than copper or PBX. Set aside $30,000 if you think you have to replace it. Mine won’t cost quite so much because I’ve got ceiling tile following the plumbing in the basement, it’s just the branches that will be a bitch. Also, it seems that if there are tees and elbows the system lasts longer than if there are sharp bends put in the pipe, especially on the hot water side.

Garth, not sure why you are so down on Ron Paul. We have to swing the pendulum in that direction, even if he wants to go too far to too fast. Obama was the peak of the swing to the left, now we swing right. In any case, don’t worry, like Obama, once he gets elected he will cave on all his major talking points, they all do. Bring the troops home? The Pentagon will land a Hellfire missile in his living room from a drone before that happens, and they will explain it to him. Cut government spending? The unions will explain that one. Health care cutbacks? Big Pharma will have him suffer a heart attack in a hot tub. Real money? The banks will explain it via not buying bonds such that he can’t finance the rest even as he tries to wind it down.

The only way to fix the system is to let in collapse under the weight of its own misjudgements, like a peacock who grew a tail 10 times to large. It will, on it’s own, and the days where we could just trim the tail periodically to keep the bird alive are long gone. The bird is dying, it just doesn’t know it yet.

#83 Aussie Roy on 12.16.11 at 2:39 am

Aussie Update

Why falling house prices aren’t the calamity the media would have you believe

Welcome to Safe as Houses, a series delving into a topic close to the heart of many Australians – property.

LOL

http://theconversation.edu.au/why-falling-house-prices-arent-the-calamity-the-media-would-have-you-believe-4547

Melbourne housing price loss, leads govt to slash spending

The Baillieu government will raise the cost of car registration and slash the number of public servants by 3600 in a desperate bid to shore up its budget bottom line.

A budget update released by Treasurer Kim Wells shows the budget is expected to be in surplus by $147 million this financial year. But the surplus will come at a cost to services, with sweeping public service cuts.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieu-takes-axe-to-public-service-20111215-1ow4s.html#ixzz1gg2VMZRD

CHINA

For the first time on record, the Chinese Communist party has lost all control, with the population of 20,000 in this southern fishing village now in open revolt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8954315/Inside-Wukan-the-Chinese-village-that-fought-back.html

China’s epic hangover begins

China’s credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC’s dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8957289/Chinas-epic-hangover-begins.html

#84 Future Expatriate on 12.16.11 at 2:45 am

You have no fear. Obama is going nowhere. Least of all, to Ron Paul. America woke up from the long conservative nightmare.

#85 inmississauga on 12.16.11 at 2:48 am

Garth, do you think Mississauga has started to turn cold?

Check out these links:

http://kafeelforinvestment.com/listingdetail.php?c=41&prodid=23

& then scroll down to see the price drop to the current listed price:

http://www.homefinder.ca/listings/168080-5117-summersky-crt-mississauga-ontario-w2222802

Wow…from 1,719, 000 to 1,498,000 to the current 1,180,000….that is a price drop of 539000….

I’ m not sure what the timeline of this listing is & am curious to know how much the builder sold for. But I am pretty sure some poor speculator’s plans have gone horribly wrong!

#86 Mel on 12.16.11 at 3:01 am

I don’t follow gold, and even if I did, nobody really know the outcome. However, I am trying to understand the reason for it’s decline of late, and what clues it might tell us.

It might tell us that deflation is coming, and that big players are selling including European banks who must get more liquid. It also could tell us where stocks could go in the near future, and it points to a sell off in the next few months.

I don’t follow any Remax, CMHC statistics. In the long term we know one thing, they are overpriced compare to all ratios. They will fall in value big time. We just don’t know as of yet how fast. Will it be a slow motion train wreck, or a fast one.

#87 DoseofReality on 12.16.11 at 3:35 am

Blah blah blah, still waiting…

#88 IAK on 12.16.11 at 4:51 am

From another real estate blog: “CMHC released their bi-annual report on the rental market in Edmonton yesterday showing decreasing vacancy rates and increasing rents.”

My first thought was: More renter, fewer buyer ? ;)

#89 Layton on 12.16.11 at 4:53 am

Jesus Christ! You think lower government spending impedes growth!? You think Obama is a GOOD president?! I like how you generally play coy on this thought. It’s too revealing. You’re a broken clock apparently. Right twice a day. This may overstate it, but clearly there is some disconnect between reality and your interpretation.

#90 gmc on 12.16.11 at 5:21 am

Here is a quote from my favorite writer talking about the U economy hitting the 100% debt to GDP, it will reach 100% by friday, what recovery, it’s more like a covery, yes cover it all up, 8.2 employment ya right!!! 2% inflation ya right, can’t get out of debt fast enough and can’t get ride of the hose fast enough.

Compare to Canada which has a mere 34.9% total debt burden versus its GDP, a much stronger financial situation. The nation in the Great White North could have been a powerhouse leader with a huge sovereign wealth fund like Norway, except they followed the Goldman Sachs path to the fields of corruption and fealty, selling almost all their gold in a grand Wall Street game that even Switzerland joined. Then Canada followed the Bush Doctrine of fascism, embracing the war footing, sending soldiers to support the narco war, and tightening the security vise. Next they will become a Chinese commercial colony, a better fate than the US to be sure.

#91 Kip the tower crane operator on 12.16.11 at 6:45 am

Interest rates will not move here for all of 2012 until US election is over so get ready for another year of it.

Let the good times roll.

#92 Tim on 12.16.11 at 7:03 am

Ron Paul is the last best hope for American democracy, I personally hope he wins.

#93 gardener1 on 12.16.11 at 7:13 am

Love ya, Garth!

I’m a yank renter (Seattle) who reads your blog every day and who intends to never again buy anything bigger than a jar of peanut butter, anywhere on the planet.

Owning stuff just sucks. I’m done.

But you’ve got the mojo and your blog is first rate.
Here’s a tip’o the vodka to one of the best bloggers in the hemisphere.

You deserve a pat on the back today for all your delightful wordsmithing. Damn, you’re good.

Canadians rock. Love you people.

#94 Onemorething on 12.16.11 at 7:45 am

If Canada was run like Hong Kong I’d move back!

#95 Smoking Man on 12.16.11 at 8:01 am

How is this for a conspiracy theory……

The Machine the Man is secretly propping up Ron Paul, by ignoring him and attacking him in main street media thus making it far easier for him to recruit and his popularity surging. The more that the status quo attack, the more popular he becomes.

Lets face it, a country’s insiders that think nothing of lets see taking down a building that was not hit by a plane, who now have the power to rounded up and detained indefinably anyone they want. If they are so afraid of Paul he would have had a heart attack long time ago.

Out of all the candidates none but Paul will pull the plug on pensions and other spending.

The man wants Paul to win……..

#96 Steven Rowlandson on 12.16.11 at 8:01 am

WTF it is highly probable that the civil service and military plus the elite union workers and professional types like bankers, doctors and lawyers are the cadre of highly paid people that support the hyper inflated real estate market without too much difficulty.
Everyone else is taking a terrible risk or is going with out.

#97 wtf????? on 12.16.11 at 8:13 am

BTW…..on the subject of a dead gold bull. Today in Bangkok you would have had to take a number and line up around the block to buy gold at a bullion shop. Keep in mind there are thousands upon thousands of gold stores selling wafers, bars, weight ornaments etc…..in Bangkok. The snaking lines blocked the sidewalks and mall concourse everywhere I went….damned annoying as it made it hard to get down the already crowded sidewalks that are thick with shoppers…..as usual.

It seems that the downtick in the bullion price is part of a selloff of risk underlined by a concerted effort by the PTB to pull down all commodity prices…..This has happened many times before…..it’s become a cycle of it’s own. The Asian market savvy buyers are voting with their wallets and buying gold by the truckload. I’ll vote with the Asian market……..these people think that China’s 400% increase in bullion buying means something……unlike the geniuses that tout the Canadian real estate market and say the gold bull will die.

#98 Aussie Roy on 12.16.11 at 8:30 am

Aussie Update

Younger Australians are disproportionately bearing the burden of higher housing costs, according to analysis by the Reserve Bank.

Median housing debt-to-income ratio for Australians under 39 years of age has risen 29 per cent in the six-year period to June 2010, compared to the 20 per cent rise for the oldest Australians in the same time.

The increases leave younger Australians with a median housing debt of 333 per cent of household income or more than double the 159 per cent for the over-60 crowd.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/high-housing-costs-hit-young-hardest-rba-20111215-1owcq.html#ixzz1ghT7vtNA

#99 Mr. Lahey on 12.16.11 at 8:50 am

Good morning all blog dogs that have yet to come to the FASTPGFBDCParty and to those many blog dogs that are already in Sunnyvale. There was no sleep to be had last night as the party started right after supper in the mess hall and has not slowed down! The bearded mystic, all knowing, all seeing, all encompassing sagacious one, former parliamentarian and minister of national revenue, defender of logical thought against Ron Paul groupies, gold standard lovers, tin foil hat extremists, luminuous seer of financial futures, crystal ball gazing visionary and all round good fellow, Garth Turner, is in amazing form. Ron Paul and Mark Carney are nervous wrecks as they prepare for their debate with Garth tomorrow. This morning at breakfast the bearded oracle was shadowing boxing prior to having breakfast in his tartan highland kilt which he is still wearing since the big hoedown last night. “Bring them on”, roared the sagacious one. He has a virtual cult following in the park and Carney has now realized who the real Canadian hero is and who the villain will soon be exposed to be. “Debt is the death of this country”, boomed Garth before gulping down some food. The crowd roared! “If the situation was dealt with a decade ago we wouldn’t have the friggin mess we have”, the mystic oracle declared after drinking his milk. Again the crowd roared their approval. “There has to be some voice of sanity in this fair land, some lone prophet crying out in the financial wilderness of Canada!”, the crowd roared their approval. “Tomorrow I shall show once and for all that the gold standard belongs in the dust bins of history and that this man cowering in fear and sweat in the corner, Mr. Mark Carney has created a housing and financial bubble that will really hurt this wonderful land we all call home. That’s tomorrow, today we go for a wagon ride in the Nova Scotian forest! Christmas carols everyone, load up the wagons Lahey and everyone pile in.” That is where we are now blog dogs, less than 24 hours before the FASTPGFBDCParty. Time is running out so get in your planes, trains and automobiles and get over to Sunnyvale!

#100 Mr. Lahey on 12.16.11 at 9:11 am

Here is a video the bearded oracle has asked me to release. He is garbed in his Santa outfit and has asked me to post it because what this blog needs right now is a little Christmas and less doom and gloom! Here you go from the mystic sage that runs this blog. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FB3h8IFCro

#101 jasonturbo on 12.16.11 at 9:20 am

ive been following this blog for a long time, for some reason ive been hoarding basics, like water, toilet paper, ammo, soap, dog food,

#102 inmississauga also on 12.16.11 at 9:20 am

inmississauga on 12.16.11 at 2:48 am
Garth, do you think Mississauga has started to turn cold?

Check out these links:

http://kafeelforinvestment.com/listingdetail.php?c=41&prodid=23

& then scroll down to see the price drop to the current listed price:

http://www.homefinder.ca/listings/168080-5117-summersky-crt-mississauga-ontario-w2222802

Wow…from 1,719, 000 to 1,498,000 to the current 1,180,000….that is a price drop of 539000….

I’ m not sure what the timeline of this listing is & am curious to know how much the builder sold for. But I am pretty sure some poor speculator’s plans have gone horribly wrong!
.————————————————–

These Townwood houses started in the 800K range (1 million with extras) so there is still room to drop.

BIL lives on that street. One guy owns 8 of these homes on a street of about 30 homes.

#103 inmississauga also on 12.16.11 at 9:29 am

opps
I meant Regal crest home not town wood.

#104 happyplace on 12.16.11 at 9:37 am

A condo in my building, right on the subway, just sold in a bully offer. The seller deliberately priced it low to pull in a bunch of offers and someone jumped in ahead of the deadline. I can’t believe this is still happening in Toronto.

#105 HouseBuster on 12.16.11 at 9:54 am

Isn’t Ron Paul the guy who wants a gold backed currency?

#106 Onemorething on 12.16.11 at 9:59 am

whether you think Paul will succeed or not, the western world starting with the US has to remember what it means to actually work and when the saving Yank starts to see the benefit along with dropping that monkey it should get infectious.

The trend is going that way and what I’m betting on now with the direction of my investments.

It’s not a question of whether Paul is capable of being president but what his views represent in the changing American.

I think underlying sources know he may also win at bringing peace not upheaval!

Putting Americans back to honest work is far better than giving them jobs policing each state!

#107 Kaganovich on 12.16.11 at 10:01 am

On the supposed advantages of austerity:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/finally-rich-american-destroys-fiction-rich-people-create-152949393.html?source=patrick.net

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-economy-shrinks-19-has-its-worst-quarter-since-q1-2009-2011-12?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

#108 Dr.NickRiviera on 12.16.11 at 10:17 am

An article from one of the biggest Deflationists out there: Mike “Mish” on the fundamentals on gold’s performance in relation to the US dollar and during a time of upcoming deflation:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/dear-nouriel-roubini-fundamental-case.html

A must read!

#109 Dr.NickRiviera on 12.16.11 at 10:19 am

(that’s Mike “Mish” Shedlock)

#110 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.16.11 at 10:19 am

If Ron Paul doesn’t have support from the vast majority of Democrat AND Republican officials, how exactly would he even get Bills to show up at his desk for signing into law?

We’ve all seen for 3-4 years now how easy it is for the house and senate to basically shut down the US government when they don’t agree with the President’s agenda.

#111 disciple on 12.16.11 at 10:29 am

#94 Smoking Man… you took the words right out of my mouth… sort of… Hegelian Dialectic at work again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnfjMxDcClM&feature=related

#112 bridgepigeon on 12.16.11 at 10:32 am

Smoking man,
Just what are you smoking man?

#113 GTA Bobby on 12.16.11 at 10:39 am

Financial advisors do not sell mutual fund. Mutual fund salesguys pretending to be advisors sell mutual funds. Let’s be accurate. — Garth

————-

If we’re being accurate, we should state that FEE -ONLY advisors do not sell mutual funds. All others DO as all those commissions and trailers are paying their bills in lieu of a fixed fee structure. I know a lot of otherwise very smart people who are very stupid when it comes to choosing their advisors. A real (fee-only) advisor will tell you to buy an ETF where a salesman (‘no fee’) advisor will sell you an equivalent balanced fund with a 2.5% MER.

#114 disciple on 12.16.11 at 10:41 am

Sorry, this is a more informative link than the other one with the reverse speech fail which is an irrelevant sidebar for now… Illuminati handshake, Satanic salute, freemason and eastern star… I’ve done a number of posts on your real rulers, RP supporters should know better by now…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9coJj_BT7b4&feature=related

#115 Herb on 12.16.11 at 10:51 am

WTF??????ers,

to add some light to the heat,

Across Canada, in 2009-10, pension benefits were being paid to 238,245 retired workers and survivors.

In that group, the average pension was $25,127.

Of course, that’s only federal civil servants, and you will find material much more to your liking in the article the quote is from:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/great+pension+divide/5868806/story.html#ixzz1ghzpg5if

Perhaps if we could get away from “millions” of civil servants making “100,000” a year in pensions, and bother with actual numbers, we could get somewhere with a definition of the problem and possible solutions. But that’s not the way to beat a rabble into mindless support.

#116 Alberta Renter on 12.16.11 at 10:53 am

#93 Onemorething

You mean more like Hong Kong in terms of a flat tax on you income, and no tax on your investments.

But less like HK when it comes to politics and vote rigging. http://tiny.cc/1gg57

#117 Bobby on 12.16.11 at 10:53 am

Garth, yes you are right. Many mutual fund salesmen call themselves financial advisors.

I find it interesting that people are getting upset about the CREA latest announcement. What else would one expect? If they announced that prices will continue to fall, no one would buy. That would be the kiss of death for all commissioned real estate salespeople.

Recall David Lerreah, the famed economist of the NAR in the US. He forecast rising real estate sales in the US right up until the end. Now broke and out of work, he has acknowledged that he was paid by NAR to pump the market even though the statistics showed an impending crash.

Just wait, it is really getting ugly here in Victoria.

#118 Junius on 12.16.11 at 10:55 am

#55 Shawn Allen and #88 Layton,

Austerity has slowed the economy in Ireland. This is the dilemma that governments now face. They know their history from the 1930s policies of Herbert Hoover. Clearly you don’t.

It is not that easy.

See below:

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-economy-shrinks-19-has-its-worst-quarter-since-q1-2009-2011-12?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

#119 brainsail on 12.16.11 at 11:00 am

#89 gmc on 12.16.11 at 5:21 am

You said, “Compare to Canada which has a mere 34.9% total debt burden versus its GDP…”

Like CREA numbers there is alot of confusion concerning reported GDP numbers. The 34.9% appears to be for Federal debt only and doesn’t include Provincial debt. And then there is public debt and external debt.

“So it appears that Canada’s total government debt-to-GDP ratio is somewhere in the range of 84% – about the same as France (82%) and Germany (83%); a bit better than Portugal (93%) and Ireland (97%); a little worse than the UK (76%) and USA (62%).”

http://www.andrewkyle.com/blog/2011/09/02/revisiting-canadas-government-debt-to-gdp-ratio/

#120 Junius on 12.16.11 at 11:04 am

#106 Kaganovich,

People need to understand this. America has more rich people than ever but the worst unemployment situation since the 1930s. Some of this wealth was created by the innovative and productive wealthy like the Steve Jobs types. However much of it was extracted by the Jamie Dimon types leaving the middle class with less money to spend on consumer goods.

Unfortunately we need to be reminded again and again that real economic prosperity comes when we have a level of economic equality that allows most people to buy goods beyond the basics.

The entire bubble economy was a huge fraud that made people believe they had money because they had access to credit. As that evaporates they will hopefully see the reality and the fiction of bare statements like “rich people create jobs.” BTW – this is also the fiction that people like “TheRealTruth” and BPOE spread when they say that rich immigrants will prop up the economy. It isn’t that simple.

#121 Daisy Mae on 12.16.11 at 11:20 am

#41 CITY SLICKER: “And his rise in popularity means the masses are believing him.”

********************************

People want change. But this doesn’t mean Ron Paul is offering the right change.

#122 Kris D. on 12.16.11 at 11:23 am

#61 PH. I’m with you on respect for Ron Paul. Like or hate his policiies, he’s the only Republican candidate with an independent mind (or any mind at all, it could be argued).

Somewhat off-topic.. I was driving in rural West Virginia recently and saw this bumper sticker: “We’ll keep our God, guns and healthcare – You keep the CHANGE.” Obama has his work cut out for him.

#123 Onemorething on 12.16.11 at 11:29 am

#115 Alberta Renter on 12.16.11 at 10:53 am

#93 Onemorething

You mean more like Hong Kong in terms of a flat tax on you income, and no tax on your investments.

But less like HK when it comes to politics and vote rigging.

Point 1 – Absolutely!
Point 2 – Where has Canadian Politics got us! Run this country like a Corporation!

#124 Amarillo on 12.16.11 at 11:37 am

#27 Not Slave (…And even Mercedes Benz is in the mix now trying to get young debt slaves to jump right to their cars for $45k when something $25 or $30k would suffice.) I agree Not Slave but lets go further. Why spend $25 or $30K? I’m driving some cool wheels that cost me $2,500. About six months ago, I bought a 1999 Honda Odyssey. My kids think I’m da man and the neighbors see an expensive-looking Honda van zooming by. It runs great and looks good, no guff.

#125 Form Man on 12.16.11 at 11:39 am

good post Garth

#214 eaglebay yesterday
#216 westernman yesterday

I will continue to use logic, reason, and facts in my comments. You two will continue to ignore facts and logic. Instead you will choose to launch personal attacks that have no relation to the topic being discussed, demonstrating the poverty of your viewpoint, and your immaturity ……… I rest my case.

#126 Van guy blazin kush on 12.16.11 at 11:46 am

“And don’t believe everything you read. Except here.”

You’re right Garth. I usually don’t believe what I read online except for what you have to say about RE.

This is a prime example of the bullshit that’s going on.
“now is a great time to buy”
17 MOI is such a great market

http://www.omreb.com/files/11%20-%20OMREB%20November%202011%20Statistics%20Media%20Release.pdf

#127 Brad in Cal on 12.16.11 at 11:47 am

Even if Ron Paul gets elected (and he should!!), he will be shot as soon as he says he will end the Fed.

Garth’s vomit notwithstanding, this is a very real possibility. Too many people want the game to continue as long as possible. Paul represents a very real threat to status quo.

You’re watching far too many flicks. — Garth

#128 Daisy Mae on 12.16.11 at 11:47 am

betamax on 12.16.11 at 2:03 am
#17 Daisy Mae: “Holy cow! Doesn’t matter WHERE you are, you manage to keep this blog up! Kudos!”

There’s this thing called the internet that allows him to access the blog even when he’s not at home. It’s true.

***************************

I was referring to Garth being a very busy man. And still having time to write this blog from wherever he may be.

#129 Daisy Mae on 12.16.11 at 11:50 am

120Daisy Mae on 12.16.11 at 11:47 am
betamax on 12.16.11 at 2:03 am

There’s this thing called the internet that allows him to access the blog even when he’s not at home. It’s true.

***********************

I fully understand how the internet works….

#130 Kris D. on 12.16.11 at 12:09 pm

Garth spoke of rates going up soon (even if a quarter point) – But didn’t Carney say quite categorically that rates won’t be raised till 2013?

No. — Garth

#131 Trev16 on 12.16.11 at 12:09 pm

Blacksheep #54

No worries Garth, Dr. Ron Paul will never be president.
Diebold Election Systems Inc. is on the job.
————————-

You are bang on…..that is why his only hope in winning is in Iowa because they use paper ballots.

I had to laugh last night during the Republican debate at how stupid some of the audience (Americans) are.
They simply don’t get the foreign occupation concept and how it peeves off the Muslims.

If I was Ron Paul I would simply say to the other candidates and Obama who are so pro attacking Iran……….When will you implement the draft?……by asking that question and driving home the point that the military is exhausted……the military needs new recruits and the sons/daughters of these Americans will be joining up with the military instead of going off to college……they would wake up pretty dam quick.

It’s all good.

Cheers,

Trev16

#132 Van guy blazin kush on 12.16.11 at 12:10 pm

#90 Kip the tower crane operator on 12.16.11 at 6:45 am

Interest rates will not move here for all of 2012 until US election is over so get ready for another year of it.

Let the good times roll.

You really want to believe the so called “good news” because when this bubble pops, you’ll be looking for a new job. Consstruction jobs are the biggest at risk in the near future. There are no more good times in RE.

#133 Form Man on 12.16.11 at 12:39 pm

#133 Van Guy

I agree with you. Kip’s comments yesterday reminded me of Kelowna in early 2008. Turned out all the ‘presold’ units that completed in 2009 and 2010 had been ordered by speculators. They couldn’t close the deals, and the towers sit half empty,….prices falling steadily. If Toronto and Vancouver want to get a glimpse of their futures, they should look at Kelowna now.
Good news for Kip: he likely will find work in the oil patch. Bad news for Kip: living in the oil patch is not as pleasant as living in the city.

#134 GTA Bobby on 12.16.11 at 12:39 pm

“So it appears that Canada’s total government debt-to-GDP ratio is somewhere in the range of 84% – about the same as France (82%) and Germany (83%); a bit better than Portugal (93%) and Ireland (97%); a little worse than the UK (76%) and USA (62%).”

———-

Thanks for the info! Stats are too frequently misrepresented, or only those that suit the author’s thesis are presented, ignoring others. It’s like saying that studies show that smokers who eat carrots are 200% more likely to develop lung cancer than non-smokers who eat 3 meals a day at McD’s. Then drawing the conclusion that eating carrots is bad for you and recommending that people eat at McD’s to avoid lung cancer. That’s an extreme example, but you get my point. Another more realistic example: mothers get into fewer car accidents the first 6 months after giving birth. The study argues that mothers are more careful during this time, which they probably are to a degree, but fails to recognize the other obvious point – these mothers don’t drive as much as they did before they gave birth, since they’re usually on mat leave and not commuting to/from work. The statistics field is a valuable one; unfortunately, 99%+ of the time, the numbers are misrepresented and gobbled up by the unwashed masses.

#135 tran, Calgary on 12.16.11 at 12:40 pm

I am looking to buy a farm(deer farm) in B.C.(nice weather). Any recommendation?

#136 45north on 12.16.11 at 12:46 pm

Bill Gable: At a big box retailer and it was d e a d.

so close to Christmas?

Connie: I do not believe CREA stats I see houses now where I live in Montreal on the market or a year not selling .

the National Association of Realtors (US) have admitted that its reports on the market have been too high for the last 5 years:

http://mcaf.ee/cxp2d

if you’re gonna make a mistake make it in your favour

It occurs to me that the banks are in a strong position. They hold the mortgages! The mortgagors still are on the hook.

#137 fancy_pants on 12.16.11 at 12:49 pm

hopefully justice prevails for a few of the organized criminals:

http://news.yahoo.com/regulators-sue-former-top-execs-fannie-freddie-153057632.html

#138 AmericanFemale on 12.16.11 at 12:57 pm

Thank the gods that you are mostly all Canadian and cannot vote in the US elections. What is with the blind ignorant support of Ron Paul? He is pro-life. Is your money so important to you that you would like to thrust females back to the dark ages where they have no choices over their own bodies? All so you can keep your wealth?

This is why we are all in this mess in the first place–money is more important to the vast majority of people than anything else. (Clearly this readership is largely male.) I would give up every cent I own, and watch civilization burn like Rome before I would vote to give up my civil liberties.

#139 Kilby on 12.16.11 at 12:57 pm

Onemorething. #124

“Run the country like a corporation” Good idea, Kevin O’Leary could be Prime Minister and 12 guys would have all the money and the rest of us could work for $12 per hour to help keep “profits” up. Would really give a boost to MacDonalds and U-Brew wine and beer stores.

#140 disciple on 12.16.11 at 1:03 pm

“The investment case for government bonds is essentially gone in the sense that people invest in government bonds because they provide risk diversification relative to equities and credit, and that isn’t the case any more,” says one insider. “The majority of government bonds, with the exception of Bunds, have become positively correlated with equities and credit because there’s a euro-exit-risk premium you have to price, and credit-risk premium you have to price.”

As the crisis has rolled on, bond traders themselves – often seen by other trading desks as brainier and more subtle – have seen their activities scrutinised more intensely. But the point they make over and over is that the ultimate owners of much of this mountain of debt are banks, which hold it as capital, or pension funds, which appreciate the regular “coupon”, as the interest payment on a bond is known. So in many cases, [they who] hold the fortunes of a generation of harassed eurocrats in their hands are looking after our pensions, as well as their own bonuses.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/20/bond-traders-debt-bonfire

What fool would buy Euro bonds? — Garth

#141 GregW, Oakville on 12.16.11 at 1:17 pm

Hi Garth, re: CC issue. For You and Others interested in the climate change discussion? I think you might find this interesting enough to take the time to watch.

Today on CPAC TV the issue talked about was from the Dec 15 (am) ‘The current state and future of Canada’s energy sector (including alternative energy).’
meeting of the Canadian
Senate Energy, the Environment and Natural Resources Committee.
http://www.senate-senat.ca/enev.asp

There were 4 knowledgeable witnesses 10 min talk each plus questions Dec 15 and can be seen through ;
http://www.parl.gc.ca/SenCommitteeBusiness/CommitteeHome.aspx?parl=41&ses=1&Language=E&comm_id=5
(Click on witnesses to find Dec 15 vidio audio,
and/or the first link to find French language
and info about the wittnesses)

The talk covered the witneses present understanding of climate change drivers, was talk about. Including CO2, solar output, water vapor feedback, cosmic rays, climate records data interpretation as they see it. CO2 doesn’t seem to be the main driver based on the evidence there have seen. More was talked about including the IPCC, and large climate conferances thay have been at.
(I don’t think I hear them mention methane as the ground melts?)

The Question from the Senators and answers are very interesting to hear too. The witnesses ‘on band wagon or the road’ comment to a question was interesting too. IMO

Anyway the link is just somewear to find more information to think about, for anyone that may be interested in the CC issue and debate.

And of course it was the Senate Committee so stayed
informative and “• Respectful, wide-ranging discussion on the topic of the posting is encouraged, and will not be censored.” Were have I seen that before?

#142 Trev16 on 12.16.11 at 1:34 pm

AmericanFemale # 139

I would give up every cent I own, and watch civilization burn like Rome before I would vote to give up my civil liberties.
——————————-

That is exactly why you should vote for Ron Paul……..You are obviously aware as an American of the Patriot Act which gives the government the right to read your emails, tap your phone and don’t need a search warrant for your home. Also you must love the new bill being passed which allows the US government to arrest its citizens and hold them indefinitely without a trial. Thus I would say to you…..It’s a bit late for you to worry about your civil liberties…..their already gone!!!!!

http://rt.com/usa/news/senate-mccain-battlefield-graham-429/

Vote for Ron Paul.

Cheers,

Trev16

#143 b on 12.16.11 at 1:55 pm

Up until the 1980’s the average person has 5% – 10% gold holdings in their portfolio.

Today it is estimated to be less than 1%.

APPLE stock has a larger cap than all the silver in the world.

The Fortune 10 (ten) have a larger cap than all the available investment forms of gold in the world.

Central banks haven’t sold gold in years, they are buying tonnes of gold in exchange for paper.

Simple math – when joe public moves a fraction of their portfolio into precious metals from the lowest level they have been in centuries, where do you think the linear rise in gold will shift to?

#144 TaxHaven on 12.16.11 at 1:57 pm

“…there is the ‘potential for crisis’ if the global economy continues to go limp…” ~ former provincial minister.

That is a most telling statement.

They’re desperate for economic growth. If they don’t get it, the governments are sunk.

Their deficits will never end. They will have to impose austerity. Maybe the police & armed forces will be cut!They will have to stop redistributing my earnings to their clients and friends. Layoffs of government employees! Assets will return to something like their fundamental values. Jobs – and sinecures – will evaporate. House prices will return to sanity. Mark-to-market will reappear. And social program spending will suffer…

Yes, the politicians and banks are counting on GROWTH. Which, no matter how much demand ‘stimulus’, isn’t coming…

#145 Lettuce on 12.16.11 at 2:01 pm

Since RE is now dead I sure hope HGTV brings back all of the gardening and sewing shows that it used to run, and which were dumped over night to run shows about buying houses and how you need a granite counter top. Actually, they will need to bring back the gardening shows so that house rich-cash poor Cdns can learn to feed themselves.

#146 sam.i.am on 12.16.11 at 2:08 pm

#139 “What is with the blind ignorant support of Ron Paul?”

Most supporters I know are far from blind or ignorant on the issues.

Since you fired off the A word, I challenge you to read RP’s position on the matter:

http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/abortion/

The man has been there and done that. An honest position on the issue based on his own life experience.

I’m keeping an open mind.

#147 CTO on 12.16.11 at 2:16 pm

#101 jasonturbo

Jason

No need to hoard the basics, all though, occasionally we might have the odd short lived blackout in Ontario…
Just make smart decisions when it comes to buying or “investing” in expensive items. I think most people on here are saying that it’s ok not to follow the herd or follow what in vogue.
Make your decision based on fundementals and listen to the right people (those who have nothing to gain from saying what their saying). This usually discounts:

Real estate agents
Developers
Polititions
Mass media
Someone trying to sell you something

#148 sam.i.am on 12.16.11 at 2:27 pm

Anyone who may have wondered what US Health insurance costs might be interested in this site:

https://www.mahealthconnector.org/portal/site/connector/

This is where MA residents can buy health insurance as mandated by law.

Family of four, parents born in 1970..plans range from $932..$1678 per month.

#149 45north on 12.16.11 at 2:33 pm

AmericanFemale: What is with the blind ignorant support of Ron Paul? He is pro-life.

I’m pro-life.

#150 thewhitenight on 12.16.11 at 2:35 pm

This country is about as capitalistic as Lenins arsehole. The levels of government here are truly astounding. Harper and his band of merry men and that hot chick Ambrose and the other ugly one, are filling their pockets on the publics dime. Napoleane Bonnaparte had it right. Democracy is a game rich people play and religion is valuable cuz when the shit hits the fan, the peasants are to afraid of a’God’ to take a stick(axe, knife, polearm,etc.) to the rich. Rest In Peace Chris Hitchens.

#151 fancy_pants on 12.16.11 at 2:53 pm

#139 AmericanFemale on 12.16.11 at 12:57 pm
I would give up every cent I own, and watch civilization burn like Rome before I would vote to give up my civil liberties.

poor huh?
keep your $, your country is on course to fulfill both.

…it’s different here (tongue in cheek)

#152 JE on 12.16.11 at 2:59 pm

Is there a full moon or has the psych ward opened its doors? What’s with the Ron Paul wackos? Thought this was a blog on C’s housing bubble.

#153 Devore on 12.16.11 at 3:00 pm

#22 Coho

Agreed, RP will not be able to do anything. (What do people think he’d do anyways? He’s on the record loud and clear, and protectionism and dismantling of social programs is pretty low on the list.) What can a president do, without support of insiders and the power elites, elected, bureaucratic, finance and industry? Veto some bills? “Urge” Congress to pass some bills? How’s that “jobs” bill doing? He’d be like Obama with his “hope and change” (assuming he actually had any in mind). Although the president can practically run the country via executive orders, he still needs everyone’s support and compliance to do the executing. The office is not a dictator. Yet, anyways. The US is not Canada.

The make up of the houses has much more of an impact.

But it sure makes it easy to paint the candidate as having either horns or a halo, to suit one’s agenda. Those who make the laws have the effective power.

#154 disciple on 12.16.11 at 3:02 pm

Vanguard Canada is the Walmart Canada of ETF’s… 0.09% MER on TSE:VCE! Couple this with a little TSE:VUS and you’ve got yourself a potentially nice little TFSA >12% growth package, that nicely tracks both Canadian and US equities. If you do a plot of a 10-day Simple Moving Average overlaid with a 30-day Exponential Moving Average, you will normally be able to note the trends and ride them. Waiting for a dip at the moment, ready to jump in…join me, let’s create a bubble, lol…
I am checking now if any of my global bond funds have euro exposure… thanks Garth…

#155 Blacksheep on 12.16.11 at 3:13 pm

Disciple # 115,

“RP supporters should know better by now…”

I viewed the video provided by, Truth TV Mississippi.

What total drivel.

I would expect better, form some one of your intelligence.

By the way, what’s with the third person reference?

take care,
The Blacksheep

#156 TaxHaven on 12.16.11 at 3:22 pm

#154 Devore…

Ron Paul doesn’t have to “do anything”. What is really needed is government doing LESS. Less social spending. Less military spending. Less extend-and-pretend. Less subsidizing. Less propping-up of asset prices. Less protectionism. Lower tariffs. A real free market.

Ron Paul has a philosophical opposition to government and to interference in free markets.

Canada DESPERATELY needs someone like him!

Which reminds me….how can Garth Turner think Ron Paul would be a “protectionist”???

#157 eaglebay - Parksville on 12.16.11 at 3:23 pm

#126 Form Man on 12.16.11 at 11:39 am

What is the purpose of your post “logic man”?

#158 eaglebay - Parksville on 12.16.11 at 3:26 pm

#130 Daisy Mae on 12.16.11 at 11:50 am

You mean the WWW (web).
There’s much more to the Internet than just www.

#159 E on 12.16.11 at 3:27 pm

For what it’s worth, my wife and I would vote for Ron Paul, if we could vote in US elections.

Go Ron Paul for 2012.

I would also vote Garth Turner for 2012 if he was running.

#160 bill on 12.16.11 at 3:29 pm

american woman
Ron Paul? He is pro-life ….

well if Dr Paul wants to get elected and stay elected Dr Paul would be wise to ignore that wouldnt he?
it doesnt matter whether a politician is pro-life or eats babys for breakfast.
american [and canadian] women will not lose this right ever. an easy half of the vote would just say no. not to mention all the guys who wish to have a spouse at some point in their life.

I am confident that the yanks will do the right thing to get out of this mess and it may take some little time.
and no I wouldn’t vote for Ron. he is not the answer as far as I am concerned.

#161 Trev16 on 12.16.11 at 3:30 pm

JE #153

Is there a full moon or has the psych ward opened its doors? What’s with the Ron Paul wackos? Thought this was a blog on C’s housing bubble.
———-

Garth can only warn people so many times about the housing bubble….its a no brainer that it is coming…..its just a matter of how much the correction will be…

In regards to the US and Ron Paul….its a big deal as Canada being the size of California will be effected when the mother ship goes down. When it does, rates go up, unemployment goes up, people default on their mortgages….house prices plunge. In otherwords….its all tied together.

Cheers,

Trev16

#162 zeeman1 on 12.16.11 at 3:36 pm

Up until last month no one was giving Ron Paul serious consideration. Funny how, like real estate, the tide is turning. Mainstream media can no longer afford to ignore him and with the further economic downturn in 2012 he might have a real shot. Sorry Garth, but it’s gonna be interesting. Obama, Romney or Paul? At least one of them is honest.

#163 disciple on 12.16.11 at 3:37 pm

Beware! If you have registered retirement vehicles with your workplace, you probably have Canadian Housing Trusts as part of your forced portfolios in segregated funds. These are part of (issued by?) CMHC, and were popular during the middle of last decade. When the RE bubble pops, you may not want to be holding these…

#164 Devore on 12.16.11 at 3:38 pm

#47 Snowboid

What a lot of people forget, especially job seekers from eastern Europe and some parts of Asia, is that technical skills are not the primary determinant. They think they will get the job because they have the skills to do it. But that’s really far down the list.

Say you’re wanting to get some work done on your house, you need a carpenter. You interview one guy, you ask him “why should I hire you?”, he says “well, I’m a carpenter”. Ok, but why should I hire you? “I have a toolbox with tools!” says he. Ok, yes, you are a carpenter applying for a carpenting job, very good, but why should I hire you?

Truth is from the hireing manager’s point of view, most people applying for a position are technically qualified. That’s why they are applying. The “soft” skills matter much more. Ability to “fit in” and to communicate effectively is THE primary determinant of whether you will get hired. You need to be able to talk to your manager, boss, coworkers, and customers (internal or external). No one will sit next to you telling you exactly what to do. The days of being a cog in machine and putting in your 9-5 are long gone, competition has seen to it.

Yes, technical skills matter, and you need to keep them up to date, and you need to work towards being an expert in your field. But that’s merely your foundation, stuff you have to be able to do in your sleep.

We never dismiss an application because of the name. We can’t, we’d have none to look at, unfortunately, and tellingly. When we interview, ability to communicate is what we look at. The more senior the position, the more important it is.

So, for new immigrants, language is very important. You need to readily understand people, and people need to be able to understand you. You need to be able to get ideas across effectively. So English classes and McJobs first. Work in your field, later.

#165 Form Man on 12.16.11 at 3:40 pm

#158 eaglebay

purpose : expose westernman and eaglebay as empty-minded frauds.
mission : accomplished

#166 eaglebay - Parksville on 12.16.11 at 3:40 pm

#153 JE on 12.16.11 at 2:59 pm

RON PAUL is the common sense man.
Hope common sense prevails.

#167 betamax on 12.16.11 at 3:44 pm

#129 Daisy Mae: “I was referring to Garth being a very busy man. And still having time to write this blog from wherever he may be.”

I stand corrected. More correctly, I sit.

“I fully understand how the internet works….”

Excellent. Can you please explain the TCP/IP protocol stack — I’m having some difficulties wrapping my head around it.

#168 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.16.11 at 3:45 pm

#49 WI Boomer — Congrats! Enjoy retirement — it truly is a wonderful life!

#64 Jsan — Good point on China. Theyt could let their economy fall as far as possible, call in their IOU’s from the US then switch to their other currency altogether. Stranger things have happened, and the Chinese are not dumb.

#105 HouseBuster — “Isn’t Ron Paul the guy who wants a gold backed currency?”
— and —
#95 Smoking Man — “The man wants Paul to win……..” — Correct Housebuster. Libya also had a gold-backed currency under Gadaafi, didn’t need the IMF, banxters or anyone else. Where is he now? SM, not sure about that. TPTB want Romney in (posted the link a week or so ago), Gingrich is just making a nuisance / distraction of himself.

Keep in mind that Soros / Obama are taking the US toward a Chinese – communist style govt., as they are both lefties and Marx followers.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

#169 Blacksheep on 12.16.11 at 3:46 pm

JE # 153,

“What’s with the Ron Paul wackos? Thought this was a blog on C’s housing bubble”

Boring….The RE story has been beat to death. The regular Dogs have heard it all before.

It’s finally become obvious to all, that Garth’s RE correction call was/is correct.

This “pathetic blog” has morphed into something more.

There are events now in play, that will effect our lives, to a larger degree
than @ 15 % RE correction. So I/we amuse ourselves, while we wait.

take care,
Blacksheep

#170 disciple on 12.16.11 at 3:54 pm

#156 “THE” Blacksheep… au contraire, mon ami. You have now seen it with your own eyes, the sign of Baphomet issued by both hands of RP. I expect much more out of someone with your intelligence and awareness, but in time, it will come. I enjoy your posts, but things are not always black or white. For example, I am not disciple, per se. Normally, disciple does not exist, except on this forum. disciple is a reactionary phenomenon to the electric prison known as the Matrix, and therefore I often refer to disciple in the third person when the subject matter speaks of that Matrix… more on the electric prison coming soon…

#171 Ammo & Viagra on 12.16.11 at 3:54 pm

“the former right honourable parliamentarian, mystic reader of financial tea leaves, financial prognosticator extraordinaire, defender of rational thought against gold huggers, Ron Paul groupies, tin foil hat extremists, all knowing, all seeing, all encompassing, luminary visionary, bearded financial prophet and all round good fellow, Garth Turner”…
That is a quote for the ages, or history books,or the year-end most famous lines of blog dogs Mr.Lahey…..

What is that sound I hear?..Oh that’s just Mr.G’s head expanding.

#172 Blacksheep on 12.16.11 at 4:00 pm

This is too funny, not to post.

Kitco headline reads:

“Still a bull market for gold, Gartman , Dec 16, 2011”

take care,
Blacksheep

#173 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.16.11 at 4:06 pm

OCCUPY REAL ESTATE: IT TAKES A LITTLE SPINE…IS ALL…

Many of us prattle and some whine and bitch about CREA’s self-destructive and otherwise sociopathic (lying) behaviour.

What COULD straighten out this property price deception is creation of an Occupy Real Estate Movement!

This does not mean squatting on someone innocent’s hard-fought chunk of soil with a home on top.

No; what it means is for prospective “homeowners” to ignore the CREA and associated real estate industry noises and to simply sit on their hands. Wait and wait and wait. Buck up that courage!

Later, and long after the vultures have picked through the busted industry’s detritus, then will the day emerge wherein deals can be made and the industry, which would be “more balanced (!)” by then, will be viable for a lot more “ordinary” people.

There will be more winners than losers, eventually.

I liken such sitting on of hands as going on strike. A sort of capital strike.

Business does it all the time, as they wait for lower interest rates or upcoming distress sales of businesses that may suit their fancies.

So, why not do it to CREA? What’s it gonna do in response?

NOTHING!

Working schmucks everywhere always complain they are powerless against “the man.”

But for those folks to merely stay in one place and refuse to borrow and thus refuse to pay mortgages, realtors’ commissions, lawyer’s fees, government imposts, reno companies’ bills and…you get the picture?

So, many individuals acting alone creates a huge business-type mosaic that cannot be compromised. It is the market speaking. And it cannot be denied.

This, then, is a defacto strike, something that no wastrell labour leader could ever conjure up by press-ganging the denizens residing within a thousand watering holes between here and Spuzzum!

Spine, is what’ll do it!

#174 Bewildered on 12.16.11 at 4:23 pm

Can any blog dog give me any personal info about this company. May be looking to put some money down but it seems to good of a return.

http://www.centurionapartmentreit.com/about/properties

#175 Brad in Cal on 12.16.11 at 4:51 pm

Even if Ron Paul gets elected (and he should!!), he will be shot as soon as he says he will end the Fed.

Garth’s vomit notwithstanding, this is a very real possibility. Too many people want the game to continue as long as possible. Paul represents a very real threat to status quo.

You’re watching far too many flicks. — Garth

Let’s keep my porno addiction out of this.
And yeah, you’re probably right – it’s absurd to think something horrible like that could ever happen. Hasn’t ever happened before, right? So…

#176 Blacksheep on 12.16.11 at 4:54 pm

#170 disciple,

Great reasoning on the 3rd person.

Things, not black and white, agreed.

take care,
Blacksheep

#177 IAK on 12.16.11 at 4:55 pm

..and “Saadi Gadhafi, son of Moammar, owns a $1.6 million penthouse in downtown Toronto” !

It is also suspected that numeral other family members own extensive properties in quebec.

Who says that immigration is not bringing money into this country??? (did I say immigration?)

There are people who can easily afford it after all !

(Sarcasm off)

#178 Fluxone on 12.16.11 at 5:02 pm

Dear Victoria,

Renovations are always done at a loss to those making the renovation – they add zero value to your home – no buyer will pay for some one else’s taste in decoration.

#179 reggie on 12.16.11 at 5:15 pm

#163 disciple on 12.16.11 at 3:37 pm

Good thought about the funds & ETFs holding Canadian Housing Trusts. These are held in some bond ETFs I was looking at. For example ishares XBB. I had the same concern.

I am not sure how that would play out if house prices drop and CMHC has to payout more then they expect.

I would love someone to explain what would happen…or at least their take…because I do not know.

#180 sam.i.am on 12.16.11 at 5:34 pm

I recently noticed a couple foreclosures in my area had their lights on at night. Both of these were listed on homepath:

http://www.homepath.com

New life in foreclosed homes is a hopeful sign.

#181 Van guy blazin kush on 12.16.11 at 5:35 pm

#178 Fluxone on 12.16.11 at 5:02 pm
Dear Victoria,

Renovations are always done at a loss to those making the renovation – they add zero value to your home – no buyer will pay for some one else’s taste in decoration.

Wrong!!!! Example: 3247 Commercial st sold for $600 in 2010. Renos done and sold in july 2011 for 1.2 mil. It’s a 30 year old van special. I asked my contractor buddy, and he said value of renos are approx 100k-120k.

#182 Emotions,hormones & duct tape on 12.16.11 at 5:38 pm

#92 Tim
“Ron Paul is the last best hope for American democracy, I personally hope he wins.”

Let’s just see how he does at Sunnyvale first, OK?

#183 JE on 12.16.11 at 5:46 pm

#166 Eaglebay

Thank you, you have validated yourself–the common definition of severe mental illness is that the sufferer thinks he is normal, or speaks for the “common man”; now it seems there is psychosis on a large scale is here. Anyone who says they can fix things, they have all the answers, is just a good salesman.

#184 April on 12.16.11 at 5:59 pm

#161 Trevor. I agree. Enough about Ron Paul!!

#185 Bill Gable on 12.16.11 at 6:11 pm

Reality check from our largest trading partner, and Overlord = Los Estados Unidos – is this YOUR future?

“WASHINGTON – Squeezed by rising living costs, a record number of Americans — nearly 1 in 2 — have fallen into poverty or are scraping by on earnings that classify them as low income.

The latest census data depict a middle class that’s shrinking as unemployment stays high and the government’s safety net frays.
The new numbers follow years of stagnating wages for the middle class that have hurt millions of workers and families.

“Safety net programs such as food stamps and tax credits kept poverty from rising even higher in 2010, but for many low-income families with work-related and medical expenses, they are considered too ‘rich’ to qualify,” said Sheldon Danziger, a University of Michigan public policy professor who specializes in poverty.”

http://tinyurl.com/7vnxzoy

#186 neo on 12.16.11 at 6:16 pm

I’m seeing a lot of stats thrown around here lately. Reminds me of my favorite quotes:

“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” – Aaron Levenstein

Feel free to use that one Garth along with one of your suggestive pictures. (-;

Did you like my suggestive dog? Quite animalistic. – Garth

#187 AKatz on 12.16.11 at 6:18 pm

Report about Housing Affordability in Halton Region (GTA)
http://cdhalton.ca/pdf/communitylens/Community_Lens_72.pdf

#188 Westernman on 12.16.11 at 6:26 pm

Form [email protected]#126,
Yeah, you shoud rest your case…as a matter of fact your case has more holes in it than a block of swiss cheese – you should probably bury your case.
American Female,
I have bad news for you, peaches, your civil liberties went down the drain many years ago and won’t be back. This new bill puts the final nail in the coffin…it’s over as far as civil liberties go. Someone will soon be made an example of and that will be the end of that as they say. Not saying we are any better in Canada, just saying…

#189 dd on 12.16.11 at 6:33 pm

….But Peter Grandich, editor of editor of the Grandich Letter, remains steadfast in his prediction that gold is headed for the $2,000 level. On Wednesday, the well-known gold analyst offered a $1 million wager with three other prominent analysts that gold will hit $2,000 before it hits $1,000 on Comex.
His offer to Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter, CPM Group’s Jeff Christian and Kitco Metals Inc.’s Jon Nadler is good until midnight, Dec. 31 and he’s arranged for a law firm in New Jersey to hold the funds in trust…

U should pick up this offer Garth since you are such a bear.

#190 Stevenson on 12.16.11 at 6:35 pm

Victoria again? Another “one” individual from toronto or vancouver having problems sell their properties? We’ll why don’t we talk about some of the bidding offers in the pockets of GTA or Vancouver? Those are also one offs too aren’t they? Also so NOW we agree that there needs to be an economic shock or increase in interest rates for prices to correct?

#191 Junius on 12.16.11 at 7:00 pm

#168 Nostra Mad,

You said, “Keep in mind that Soros / Obama are taking the US toward a Chinese – communist style govt., as they are both lefties and Marx followers.”

Are you high or just completely out of your mind? Or both?

What could possibly be the basis for this statement. If anything Obama has pandered too much to the right.

#192 Junius on 12.16.11 at 7:06 pm

#173 Victoria Tea Party,

If you really want to start an Occupy Real Estate Movement why not get Canadians to focus on their media. We have among the highest concentration of media in the Western World. Maybe if we had a “free” press or any press at all that was not a lap dog for the RE industry we could just tell CREA their press releases are not news and not report them.

More than 80% of our broadcasting services are owned by four companies; Bell, Shaw, Rogers and Quebecor. Our radio, print (including digital) and everything else is just as bad.

#193 Smoking Man on 12.16.11 at 7:09 pm

Now this is how Ukrainians go after the man

Got my attention

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=fad_1323839936

#194 Daisy Mae on 12.16.11 at 8:10 pm

BETAMAX: “Excellent. Can you please explain the TCP/IP protocol stack — I’m having some difficulties wrapping my head around it.”

****************************

Well, noooo….I didn’t say I was a qualified ‘techie’. LOL

#195 Onemorething on 12.16.11 at 8:19 pm

#140 Kilby on 12.16.11 at 12:57 pm

Onemorething. #124

“Run the country like a corporation” Good idea, Kevin O’Leary could be Prime Minister and 12 guys would have all the money and the rest of us could work for $12 per hour to help keep “profits” up. Would really give a boost to MacDonalds and U-Brew wine and beer stores.

Yes my friend everyone would have to find a job, the decision where you work is only up to you. Same goes for Singapore.

#196 Form Man on 12.16.11 at 8:23 pm

#188 westernman

shoud ?

#197 Cory on 12.16.11 at 8:32 pm

Most of the US debt is to itself….well, to the Federal Reserve, a private corporation. So who cares? dont pay the Rothschilds and wipe the debt clean.

Canada, US, EU, etc cannot ever be debt free the way the monetary system is set up. Without debt, countries would not have any physical cash and neither would any citizen have cash in their pockets. Debt can also never be paid off with a fractional reserve system and the system is designed this way for a reason.

#198 TurnerNation on 12.16.11 at 8:40 pm

TLT (US long Bond ETF) is trading at 3-year highs again…pay attention.

#199 Waterloo Resident on 12.17.11 at 5:32 am

I have listened to Ron Pauls comments and he sounds EXACTLY like me, my friends, and my co-workers at work, we all seem to have basically the same thoughts about the world and about the mess in American politics, so if Ron Paul is a wacko then that means the majority of Canadians that I know in the K-W area are wacko, and frankly I don’t think so !

#200 dmno on 12.17.11 at 11:04 am

The alter of dogma Garth, really? Ron Paul wants to do exactly what you preach, live within our means and get rid of debt. He also wants to trade with nations, not have protectionism. I’ll believe everything I read here…mostly.

#201 TurnerNation on 12.17.11 at 11:08 am

#199Waterloo Resident on 12.17.11 at 5:32 am

People said the same things of Obama. Recall: “Hope and Change, Yes We Can, Green Shoots”, all those empty phrases? What changed? Nothing.

Remember, “anybody” may become president of the USA. Bush 1 was CIA head for years (more power than president, they have their own black ops), then he became president; next up was Clinton, then Bush II, and now Hillary Clinton is #2 in command.

I just covered from 80s to present. “Anyone can become president”* If you are from the elite connected families. Even billionaire Ross Perot could not crack the inner cirle, nor Kerry (married into elite Heinz fortune). Now we have a religious wacko/poligamyst in the wings. What a freak show.

John Lennon had it: “Everybody’s smoking, but no-one’s getting high. Strange days indeed”.

#202 Don on 12.17.11 at 3:51 pm

Ron Paul is only wacky to the corrupt.

#203 Future Expatriate on 12.17.11 at 6:41 pm

Life just happens to begin at birth, when God gives an empty container a soul, when they need it to deal with the outside world and are no longer a parasite. Was true in Jesus Christ’s day, and it’s true now.

Knock it off. — Garth