Six months ago Cindy called me, worried about Tom. “He’s obsessed,” she said. “He spends hours a day reading this stuff online, and I need you to talk to him.” So I did. And I told Tom he was a fool if he believed a single word on any web site pumping silver. The metal pays you nothing to own, I told him, no interest or dividends. It’s purely speculative, and if you must have a silver play, at least buy some shares in precious metals companies and get some income.
Of course, he didn’t listen. It’s going to fifty bucks an ounce, he said, then double that. The same week he spent $39,000 on a big pile of metal. The last I heard, he’d lost a third. Soon it could be half.
It’s always interested me the way gold and silver have gone hand-in-hand with real estate, not to mention guns and God. The connecting thread seems to be this weird notion of ‘natural wealth.’ God made land. God made gold. They can’t be fabricated or expanded. They are unique, valuable, divine. Worthy of armed defence.
Lately the gold bugs were swept along by their own momentum, as is the case in every bubble, and by a collection of questionable premises. They claimed governments would print money endlessly to get out of financial problems, creating hyperinflation and sending gold soaring. They forecast the decline and bankruptcy of America, issuer of the world’s reserve currency. Gold would replace it.
They saw a global discrediting of fiat money – that issued by governments and backed only by the power to tax – and the ascendancy of a true, natural medium of exchange. Gold, of course. They claimed every central bank purchase of the metal was to prepare for the inevitable new world currency, instead of mere diversification. And they’ve told us for months 2008 was but foreplay to a financial collapse which would destroy 80% of the value of stock and bond markets. When cockroaches crawled out of the ashes, in other words, they’d be carrying bullion.
Well, I told you differently. And this pathetic blog advised the metalheads to take their profits when the yellow stuff was motoring towards $1,900 an ounce. I also suggested reasonable people make gold 5% of their portfolio, and sell consistently to keep it that way.
Now gold’s lost almost $300 an ounce, and is now in serious technical trouble. Prices on Tuesday hit a seven-week low after the US Fed said it has no new plans to stimulate the economy, and as the American dollar gained ground.
Many reasons for this. Demand, for one. People like Tom stop buying PMs when prices go down because it was only bad information, greed and herd hormones that got him sexed up in the first place. No rational human being, after all, takes thirty-nine grand out of growing investments to purchase a bunch of rocks. So, as gold and silver plummet further, the buying will stop and the selling start.
And how about India? The world’s greatest consumer of gold is expect to purchase 16% less, since the rupee has taken a dive. Then there’s the reality we should all be more worried about asset deflation than currency inflation, which is why metals cracked again on Tuesday. Bullion bunnies’ wet dreams about 24/7 government printing presses, America turning into Zimbabwe and the good old fun days of the Weimar Republic are evaporating in the face of slow global growth, deleveraging plus austerity budgets in France, Britain, Italy and Greece. Plus, there’s the growing prospect of a 1930s-era Republican occupying the White House 13 months from now.
Technically, gold seems toast. Says US analyst Dennis Gartman: “We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull.” He sees the yellow stuff collapsing into the $1,400 range over the coming months as big players liquidate their positions and move into assets that actually make money. Gartman points out gold has failed to make a new high since its peak, with each high lower than the one which preceded it. Now lows are getting lower than previous lows.
Worse, record gold purchases by China in recent months have done squat to bolster metal prices, which is proof, “a market that cannot or does not respond to bullish news is a bearish one…”
This should surprise nobody, except those who believed the fairytales on doomer web sites, or confused investing with gambling. America never was going down. Nor is Europe. There’ll be no hyperinflation. No collapsing banks. No FEMA camps. No buying groceries, whiskey or ammo with golden nuggets tossed from your horse.
The US dollar will remain the reserve currency of the world. Over the next decade equity markets will leave gold and silver in the dust. There’ll be far more volatility with commodities than most people can stomach. Deflationary pressures will hurt houses. And liquidity will rule.
As for God, well, she created shiny minerals to trap greed and harness fear.
It worked.
Update: Gold lays an egg.
Sell-off pushes bullion below 200-day moving average, as world reacts with alarm to Greater Fool comments. More here.
* * *
A couple of days ago I posted a message from an inside guy at CityTV in Toronto letting us know about a story they were preparing on the possibility of a housing dive. The piece has just been broadcast, and here it is. — Garth
250 comments ↓
Loving that photobomb Garth.
Allah hath blighted usury and made almsgiving fruitful. Allah loveth not the impious and guilty. (2:276)
Record high household debt in Canada triggers alarm
Published Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2011
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/record-high-household-debt-in-canada-triggers-alarm/article2269210/
The ratio of debt to personal disposable income hit a high of 152.98 per cent in the third quarter from 150.57 per cent in the prior three months, Statscan said Tuesday. The report comes as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is again sounding the alarm over swelling household debt. “Our greatest domestic risk relates to household finances,” the central banker said in a CBC radio interview.
Roughly one in 10 Canadians is in a vulnerable financial position, Mr. Carney said – meaning that the cost of servicing their debt consumes more than 40 per cent of their income – “and that, historically, is where people start to have issues in making their debt service payments.”
==============
This will end badly.
I thought India was only buying fake gold jewelry ;)
Gartman is confused. On November 23 he said this: “That’s one of the reasons why I continue to buy gold in euro terms,” he said. “Because I think we’re going to walk in one day, the decision has been made, and you’re going to walk in and see gold up 20 euros on an opening and trade higher from there.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45416848/Dennis_Gartman_I_m_on_the_Wrong_Side_of_Euro_Trade
It’s going to fifty bucks an ounce, he said, then double that.
Silver already $50 and very few sold, thats the problem with Metal bugs they never sell the stuff until it tanks.
Anyone have any news of foreclosure activity across Canada? What I have heard is that there are big forclosure numbers (relative to the size of the market) in the Okanagan valley, and some more recreational areas in BC (Squamish, Whistler, Shuswap, Vancouver Island). Apart from that inventories have been trending significantly higher in Victoria, Ontario cottage country and some parts of 905. But there is no good data out there about early indicators of foreclosure stress. Anybody else know about specific Canadian foreclosures or markets showing weakness. Numbers?
unfortunately, the rabid gold bugs perform a grave disservice to those rightly paranoid about irredeemable currency. gartman is no authority – he’s been wrong far more than right about PMs. gold is just an old form of money that cannot be debased, unlike the present paper confettis, no more – no less. it’s not a lottery ticket. peoples’ need for gold is directly proportional to their govts’ irresponsible borrowing and spending. the 10 yr chart shows things proceeding right on target.
It’s going to fifty bucks an ounce, he said, then double that.
Silver already hit $50 and very few sold, thats the problem with Metal bugs they never sell the stuff until it tanks.
The gold/silver story isn’t quite done yet:
JP Morgan still has its ridiculous Silver short position to cover
and
This MF Global disaster has uncovered some shady mis-handling of physical gold/silver, which could change some rules around how the metals are stored:
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com/2011/12/goldsilver-rehypothecation-scandal-hsbc.html
First like gold.
I respect that RE agent. He’s seems to be a man of integrity to come out against his agency in such a public manner. And if he has in fact sold all his RE, then i commend him even more.
Mr Brown, the unbelievable Obama look alike, could actually have a great second career filling in for the American captain in a couple of years time. Man, he looks like a clone.
JO
JO
Sold my gold and silver awhile ago when one of those major US banks decided they liked gold. Lost $400 on the silver, gained $1400 on the gold, but I like silver and will continue to collect the stuff for fun. I have a JFK silver quarter I will never part with.
I think Raza was just trying to get his name out there to pick up some potential buyers who are wishing to vultch. The guy looks worse then a used car salesman, and probably can’t hold his alcohol judging on how he looks.
Here in a delusional Saskatoon, which I’ve had the terrible misfortune of being chained to like a modern day Prometheus for my past transgressions, I digress. Here in Doomtown debt is a boon and now our beloved mayor and his ilk are crying for pay raises. All the while cutting services and hiking taxes. Sound familiar? This place is the last bastion of bubblenomics and so will be the last to fall. Come one come all! The dragons are fat and too numerous to count. I need a new liver. I better get on that, the wait list is as long as the tales being told about what a wonderful place this is to live. Bring sharp swords, dragonskin is tough
Haha gold and god. Two things I don’t believe in
What is truly amazing is when I get an idea for post, feeling like crap so did not bother tonight, but the theme was going to be. I need to find religion. Then highlight all the flaws of each one as I worked my way down the list, I would have spared no ones.
I want to start one, Church of Smoke. You walk in on Sunday, rather than red wine, everyone gets two glasses of white. We then pass a around a peace pipe, and we listen to Pink Floyd, Cohen, and Lead belly for the true blues… Light show, and Victory Secret runway show…….. I would not miss one day of church…….
I need religion Being a genius and amazing physic is exhausting, knowing the truth sucks, you lose your tolerance for plastic people and get down on yourself cause you can’t bother playing the game.
Then Garth pushes out his post the above pic. with The GOD word in it.
I got a gift………
The gold standard was one of the causes of the upheaval in the 1930’s. Coming off of it helped to get industry moving by removing a bottleneck to capital flows.
Going back to gold would be like saying, “You know, the 1950’s were a great time…. it they started buidling 1957 Chevys again it would be a great time again.”
Yeah…. let’s all get to work on that one.
Garth said
This should surprise nobody, except those who believed the fairytales on doomer web sites, or confused investing with gambling. America never was going down. Nor is Europe. There’ll be no hyperinflation. No collapsing banks. No FEMA camps. No buying groceries, whiskey or ammo with golden nuggets tossed from your horse.
………………………………………………..
Europe not going down. No FEMA camps.
And they call me insane……………..
The gold/silver story isn’t quite done yet:
That may be, however it will not change the mentality of metal bugs, they simply wont sell it until it tanks.
Emotional attachment to any investment is all bad.
Gold was actually created inside really really large stars. That’s why it’s rare.
Me too. — Garth
Not quite accurate, Garth.
Two weeks ago, gold was very close to its all time high in CAD terms. Gold never went above $1900CAD and was is still above $1800CAD until last week. It is now slightly below $1700. So a 10% drop since the all-time high. Not quite a $200CAD drop. You said
The TSX hit 14,200 earlier this year and is now at 11,800 which is a 17% drop. Gold isn’t less or more volatile than XIU right now.
I agree that gold and silver do not have great technicals right now, but it will go back up as the ECB reacts to a contraction in the European money supply.
In times of deflation, cash or equivalent is better. In times of hyper-inflation, gold/silver are better. I suspect massive money printing by Central banks. So I buy precious metals.
And you make a fine couple. — Garth
To Mr. Lahey, my error good sir. It was my first time. I often lash out unprovoked. Tell Ricki I will mount my winged steed this night and head out east. I’ll be needing a halfbag of weed.
Anyone catch the rumor Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz
Sends Oil Prices Skyrocketing
Wink
Your timeline is short…too short.
You know, and I know, that the only tool Central Printers have is just that – printing.
Will you admit you were too early when next gold passes $1900/oz.?
I’ll be dead. — Garth
#18 Ex-Cowtown
A massive FED-induced credit bubble and high leverage was the cause of the upheaval in the 30s. Much like now. Don’t people learn any lessons from history? No wonder every time it’s different.
Garth your in fine form tonight
…………………………………………………………..
Me too. — Garth
I’ll be dead. — Garth
Interesting how people are correct when their opinions turn out to be correct, and those who incorrectly believe in their correctness, disagree. — Garth
There isn’t a single asset class that hasn’t lost value in this market…….including cash…..when people panic everything goes down…..this is what the newbies can expect from ‘mr. market’………forever. Given the macro dynamics behind this downturn you can continue to see no return/capital loss for more than a year certainly…..several years possibly…..until capitulation hits and everyone decides that investing is for ‘someone else’……going sideways is what happens during these periods.
Years ago on blogs like this I laughed at debt to income stats at 75 and 80% …now that they are officially 160% and realistically over 200% when averages are isolated…we really have a good belly laugh going here.
The BOC doesn’t take food, taxation, energy, fee’s etc into consideration when calculating these numbers…..they consider inflation a non starter at under 2% ..Bwahahahahahahahahahaaaaa …fed your kids lately? Tried to shop with a pension cheque?
Credit borrowing is what is most people strategy to make it to the end of the month…..behind closed doors a large number of Canadians are starving in their middle class houses….kids are going to school hungry……seniors are regulars at the food bank…..we all know these things….the media is choosing to ignore the reality……don’t want to piss off the advertisers eh? Its grim.
Carney says ‘its all your fault’…..Bwahahahahahahaaa another lie.He set the standard by setting rates artificially low and leaving them down in the hopes that the econbomy would ‘fix itself’…….they did this for 12 years………the policy served to screw everyone as costs got jacked up through the roof.
Then what?….They’ve forced seniors to sell everything they’d saved over a lifetime so that the taxman could grab revenue for a greedy civil service. You don’t want any belt tightening in the union movement when you jockey for votes at election time right? Now what…they’re pushing the CHP again to see if they can squeeze any more blood out of people before the entire shemozzle collapses and seniors are being found dead in freezing apartments eaten by their hungry pets.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+household+debt+hits+record+high/5851720/story.html
IMHO people shouldn’t be bitching about the cost of real estate ..this is just a sideshow to misdirect your attention away from the real problem/issues. Voices with an audience should be attacking the problem, not some nebulous ‘real estate industry’ they can do nothing about. Occupy Wall St has it all wrong……..its the cost of government that has screwed the pooch for working people….Wall St isn’t sucking 80% of every paycheque out of your pocket in direct and indirect taxes…..as usual the union movement and the media are sucking up the government playbook for favors and complicity.
Another very large group of “Herd” followers. Is there really a larger group of herd followers than the real estate cult?
Chinese real estate “investors” demand refunds as their “investments” plunge in value. It’s all fun and excitement as the bubble grows and values inflate, it very quickly becomes pain and dread as the bubble begins to deflate, and once again, ALL ASSET BUBBLES EVENTUALLY DEFLATE!!
“China’s housing bubble is losing air”
“Home prices and sales plunge after China’s government intentionally slams on the brakes. Some recent buyers stage demonstrations, destroy real estate offices and demand refunds of up to 40%”.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-housing-bubble-20111213,0,3429813.story
.
Amen! Brother Carney.. leading us to the promise land!!
http://bit.ly/rzhgHZ
Anyone catch the rumor Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz Sends Oil Prices Skyrocketing
I wonder how long those U.S. battle ships will watch those Iranian speed boats attempt to close the Strait.
Me thinks not to long. Oil is seriously bubbled.
With such bearish talk about gold and silver and the constant attempt to trash the price via short selling there can be only one conclusion and that is that the price is going to go up! We have out of controll spendaholic warmongering governments who don’t know a damned thing about austerity and would be loathed to give it a try plus we have a global real estate mania on top of vast sums of fiat currency around the world that is unbacked and only has the say so of financial and political gangsters to give it any alleged value and legal status.
The sun will turn into a black hole long before gold and silver stop being both valuable and real money.
Gold and silver is the money of choice of the elites.
You don’t suppose they know something?
Those who disagree have some pretty paper to sell you all.
A Fed which has just made major swaps available to the ECB and today promised to keep rates near zero until at least mid 2013 also said they are not doing anything to further stimulate the economy. That is total double talk. – Jim Sinclair
What’s worse than investing in precious metals?
Investing in precious metal COINS. Anybody have any advice on how to get the best price for gold and silver coins?
BEWARE: Gold did good by me, but I took Garth’s advice and my own barometer. I’m not entirely convinced that the gold thing is quite done, however what I hold now is free and clear. It’s all good.
Hi Garth, thanks for your website.
Have to disagree on your views on gold. Dennis Gartman has been crapping on gold since it was under $500. Not the guy to reference on things related to pm’s. You should try quoting guys like John Embry – another outstanding Canadian like yourself. I think you’re right to say that reasonable people should have 5% of their portfolio in gold, however, most reasonable people have 0% in gold. Watch what happens when people become reasonable and put 5% in gold. Gold can, and will, I believe, triple from here and silver will follow (much more than triple).
It won’t if government leadership/central banks grab some morals and put interest rates where they should be. This is unlikely since both are interested in profiting off money creation through ridiculously low interest rates. Eventually gold will get bubblicious but it is still cheap by historical standards: the 1980 high of 850 is about $2500 in today’s $$ and economic conditions are much worse.
Short term losses have been legendary in the gold/silver market in the past decade. Just look at the 10 year chart for gold: 2005, 2007, 2011 were years when gold took serious drops. In the short term people took losses when they bought at the peak but prevailed as they held on to it.
The mainstream media will always cheerlead high real estate prices as they storm higher but they will almost always poo poo gold. They’ve done this since gold was at $250 until now. With respect, please don’t go mainstream on gold Garth.
When everybody begins to put 5% into gold, it will be time to sell but that time has not come.
BTW the gold standard did not cause or continue the great depression. THe great depression was preceded by excess credit creation similar to what we have today. Ever hear of the ‘roaring twenties’? Ben Bernake and Greenspan seem to think you can get out of this disaster which was created by excess credit creation/debt by creating more debt. Conspiracy? Deceived? or stupid?
Check out these charts on gold and silver.
Doesn’t look like anything but the bottom of a correction Mr. Turner!
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Dec/13/Putting-gold-silver-pullbacks-in-perspective
“Will you admit you were too early when next gold passes $1900/oz.?
I’ll be dead. — Garth”
are you going to die in the next 3-4 months? I hope not! I want you to be able to be as proud as a peacock when real estate tanks.
Just admit it when you turn out to be wrong about gold.
Love you!!! ;)
I don’t know about gold, don’t own any but I still believe in commodities going higher and I don’t put blind faith in the equities market like some do.
That being said, if you believe in a crash of the money system, I think a pail of wheat and some firewood will be a better investment for the future than a couple gold coins. Course grains, properly stored will have value for hundreds if not thousands of years.
Well!… you do like to stir things up, OldChap.
Regardless, and say what you will about the fans of the BarbarousRelic… but you must confess, they’ve had a rather better year than the TSX… eh? ;)
http://tinyurl.com/6mqewvd
“24/7 government printing presses”: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Check it anytime, it is a one way show. And, yes, you can check 24/7.
Raza is a good man. I’d like to see more realtors like that. That was a good video clip
Devore and other financially astute readers – what do you think of this:
I see a scenario where Europe eventually comes up with a solution albeit not without considerable pain. They will have to continue to offer relatively high interest rates on bonds but they will have the implicit backing of one or more government-sponsored funds so they will appear to be a good risk for investors. This will attract money to Europe forcing the Euro higher vs. other currencies and also force bond rates (and therefore fixed term mortgage rates) higher in Canada (and likely US as well) in order to sell our bonds…
Holding the GLD ETF in US dollars because I get paid in US dollars. When GLD goes down, US dollar goes up. As a result, it balances out and I don’t lose or gain much. When GLD goes up due to more demand for gold or weaker US dollar, I gain.
The simplistic argument I always give against metal backed money is, what happens if a foreign entity gains control of enough supply of that metal to control its value. That scenario would lead to economic and other types of chaos.
Whether foreign creditors could achieve the same end result by dumping treasuries en masse is another matter.
Another factor driving metalheads, at least in the US, is that owning gold is a form of rebellion against the Federal Government where the USD is legal tender for all debts public and private. The idea that the Government is imposing its will on free men, forcing them to settle private debts using USD, is offensive to some. Also recall that the US Government confiscated its citizens gold in the 30’s (Executive Order 6102). A lot of people have never forgotten that happened. Present day attitudes formed based on past events.
Wow, it is surprising to see an enlightened man like Garth fall on his face. Doesn’t happen often. But here, it clearly does.
Dear Garth, the price of gold and silver is not tied to the deflation/inflation endless debate. The price of gold and silver is, exactly like fiat money, a reflection of CONFIDENCE into our monetary system.
In the last 5000 years of history, gold and silver have never gone down to zero. Can you name me just one currency that has survived more than three hundred years? That’s right, all currencies eventually end up being worth exactly…zero. In pretty much all cases, government unrestricted intervention in currency markets have been at fault.
I also suspect that you do not really understand the pm market. You don’t know about short positions. You are also probably not interested to know that the world trades 1 billion onces of paper silver every DAY while the world mines 800 millions onces every YEAR. The unbalances in the pm are so great that enlighten guys like you can fall in the classic anti-pm trap. Trust me, dear Garth, pm are not in a bubble. Pm constitute less than 2.5% of portfolios in portfolios across the world, a totally insignificant percentage. When 70 % of Americans had heard about the launching of the IPAD a few years ago, that’s what I call a bubble. Apple is a bubble because it is on every one’s lips and has a totally ridiculous valuation (for what it is anyway).
We’ll talk about a bubble, to quote a famous investor, when your barber is telling you about his favorite silver stock in the small cap sector.
That’s when I will sell my silver. Until then, I have ZERO chance of my physical silver going to zero, ever, unlike any of the REIT you so much love.
I sleep very well at night.
The consistency of these arguments with those who believe in the endlessly rising values of condos is fascinating. I’m enjoying all of this immensely. — Garth
i hope silver and gold do tank. i’ll buy more. Ten years of great gains and all the reasons for it are still in place. Every currency in history thats gone off the gold standard has eventually failed. But not this time, right?
Just killed a massive bottle in the zone, thinking about my dream church, rather than have crosses or other symbols at my alter would stand a giant V , don’t want to spell it out because that word congers up images of problems at the gynecologist office. So I will use the word kitten, a beautiful trimmed spectacular kitten… Their would no bowing or making of crosses or other gestures. For those of us that still can (not me) we would salute not with our hands.
Floyd, Kitten, wine and smoke at the alter……….
I might start this……………………
#30 WTF
IF EVERY assset class has gone down, how come my
Vanguard account summary for TODAY shows the following Year-To-Date Performances
Dividend Growth Stockl Fund 6.49 %
Ginnie Mae Bond Fund 7.44 %
Long Term Bond Inex 19.96 %
L:ong Term Corp Inv Grade 15.06 %
Wellesley Income Fund 7.49 %
Wellington Fund 1.45 %
Sure, my overseas funds are all down for the year,
emerging markets and FTSE index got reamed!!!
my REIT is up only 2% even the S&P Fund is mostly flat-lined.
Sorry no sector funds, no precious metals. Just overall better performance than any GIC’s or CD bullshit
And, I would say this is a Below Average year for my investments!! Somehow, I’ll get by
Garth,
I love your blog but please don’t quote that idiot Gartman. He flip flops every month, and no credible analyst calls for a bear market in anything when the chart is hitting the short term bottom.
Didn’t you see him make a fool of himself a couple of months back on BNN TV when they had him on there for calling the gold bear the day before and gold then took off for a couple hundred gain ? He flip flopped and went bull while on TV after sending out his so called letters to all his investors to sell.
Gold may well go lower and no, I’m not a gold nut, but Gartman is a complete joke. Use someone credible.
Denis Gartman is the source you are basing this blog post on? This guy has been flip flopping all over the place. 6 days ago on CNBC he said he was long gold and back in June he said gold would replace the Euro as the #2 world currency. He’s also called a gold top / bubble every year for the past 11 years all the way from $200 to $1900/oz.
Don’t but PMs to get rich, buy it to preserve your wealth as the central banks attempt to (unsuccessfully) print their way out of this debt black hole. I’m bookmarking this post and look forward to a good laugh a year from now.
I’m no gold bug but I hAve followed Dennis Gartman and he is constantly changing his positions, then explaining it by saying “the market is always right”, he has no conviction on anything, I’m sure if you dug a little more Garth you would find others just as prominent as Gartman saying the opposite, like Jim Rogers to name one
#30 wtf????? on 12.13.11 at 10:12 pm
What I learned a long time ago is paying taxes is what motivated me.
When you cut CRA a chk for 2mil it’s not that bad……
Means you did good that year…………
Got to think of a new word for posters on here….
Thinking…………………………………Almost
Powerless thats right Powerless busting Carneys nuts, the system and your predicament………..
1) learn to lie and exploite the tax farm slaves
2) trash feeling of victim hood..Be the hunter not the prey
3) and all else join my church, where Hallelujah will realy mean Hallelujah.
Enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJTiXoMCppw
Whenever there is a correction in one of the assets you believe in you call it “just noise”, Garth. But when someone predicts gold will fall, you overreact by calling gold bugs fools.
As I’ve said before, Garth is my contrary indicator for gold. The day gold gaps up and Garth says, “Nobody could have anticipated events of the last couple days. It might be a good idea to increase your gold holding above 5% given these unforeseen issues that are unfolding globally…” then I will know it is time to sell.
Also note that gold is down but the US$ is up in the last few days. So in Canadian dollars, gold has “plunged” a whole 4% after increasing around 300% in the last decade.
And
“reasonable people make gold 5 % of their portfolio”
I’m good with that , most people don’t own any ,have never held any in their hand(not counting wedding rings)and have missed the best performing asset of the last ten years,with the help of the financial industry to thank.
Physical gold is hard to buy compared to writing a cheque for a mutual fund.
Less than 1. % own gold , 50 % have stock market exposure, 70% in houses . I think I have an idea for a new blog.
“God isn’t making any more land!”
Who’s tired of hearing this?
-Well here’s an interesting counterpoint…
If everyone on earth (7B) was equally housed on 10 acre plots divided as follows:-
20 split level houses each on 1/4 acre, each housing 4 people plus 2 acres containing a 400 person condo building and the remaining 3 acres consisting of 72 townhomes (each housing 2 people)….
The entire world’s population would comfortably fit into the state of Texas with room to spare…
(double checked my math… hope it’s ok)
Poll
Sober smoking man
Drunk smoking man
When I go good and all the schooled idiots sya good for you. Puke…………..is what I say
some people are just destined to push and suffer the results………..
life is boaring…. what ever works… congnative disonence who cares
I still don’t know how someone can be so right about CDN real estate, but be so wrong about everything else?
Silver is a neccesity to our modern economy, yet the supply continues to dwindle. Just wait until the paper price and the physical match up. See what happened at MF Global, all those contracts were all a facade.
Just like your facade of fiat currency, which always fails. No fiat currency has been successful. Keynes would be proud of you Garth. More govt control! more tax! Im so happy you created the TFSA, what a saint. Now, you can’t touch this special account, but go ahead, take everything else!
Sure the Fed didn’t print this time, but currency devaluation always happens. Maybe not this time, but its only going one direction…. down!
You can bank on that Garthster!
Ive had my play in Gold and Silver, made some great profits and sold all my RE 18 months ago to finance that play. Like shooting fish in a barrel some might say but hard to read the next steps. MESSY at best!
Time to be liquid, protect wealth and make smart money!
“Metro Vancouver and British Columbia led the nation in average monthly rents in October, according to a national survey by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released Tuesday.
But equally concerning for renters, according to Tenants Resource and Advisory Centre executive-director, Nicky Dunlop, is the city’s falling vacancy rate.
“The situation is awful,” Dunlop said in an interview, pointing to a half-point drop in the vacancy rate to 1.4 per cent in October from 1.9 per cent in October 2010. “It’s getting worse and pushing people out of the city. Folks who live in the city won’t be able to live in the city and there won’t be anyone around to serve your coffee.
“We take 8,000 calls a year, including people who fear getting evicted and fear they won’t get another place.”
http://tinyurl.com/78vc598
I laugh when Advise is given to sell the house on speck of a down side plunge. Fine for singles and 1%ers but what of the married with children? My solution was to pay off short term debt and then get the longest term mortgage at the best rate. It works if you have a balanced equity position vis a vis your lender. I must admit to having proactively gambled on fixed and variable mortgages and buying low and selling high. I am glad I had ice cold blood in my veins while the wheeling and dealing was going on.
#30 wtf????? An individual can not stand alone against the forces of corporate enterprise. The only entity that can is a government of the people by the people and for the people (nice hollow words in practice but on the money none the less). I fear you are introducing yet another layer of misdirection when suggesting the government is not part of the answer. In my estimation it is a huge part. Along with an intelligent, active and engaged citizenry (yet another figment of the imagination yet essential none the less). These elements coupled with a clear vision would likely take us a long way towards home. We Canadians can all make it out alive (figuratively speaking, hopefully), few nations have the resources we do.
Wake up! Interpreting media’s mind control (NLP) PART 1of 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBkGSereghA&feature=youtu.be
Fox News caught using fake videos of riots in Russia:
http://www.brasschecktv.com/videos/news-media-corruption/fox-news-caught-using-fake-video-of-riots-in-russia.html
GOLDEN MATH…
When the price of Gold went up in the 2000’s it meant that the (relatively) fixed amount of Gold in the world could be traded for a higher percent of all the “stuff” and services in the world than before.
If when Gold was at $300 all the Gold in the world could buy say 5% of all the stuff in the world (I have no idea if it was 5%, I do know it was nowhere near 100%) then later when Gold was at $1800 it could buy 6 times as much say 30% of everything in the world.
Who is to say what the right value of Gold is or was? The market determines this. The same market that determines the value of say Rembrants or rare stamps, or rare wine. It is all pretty arbitrary.
People complain that dollars are subject to inflation. In reality the value of a dollar has been pretty stable and predictable over recent decades. Just modest inflation. Yes, inflation adds up over the years but is easily overcome by investing. Gold meanwhile (as a currency) has had bouts of massive deflation (everything got cheaper in terms of Gold in the 70’s), then massive inflation as value of Gold plummeted in 80’s then massive deflation as Gold rose in 2000’s which was deflation in Gold as a currency as the value of everything else fell in terms of an ounce of Gold.
The point is the value of Gold has been massively volatile compared to the Canadian or the American dollar. Good luck to those who try to predict where the price of Gold is headed.
Garth, I envy your confidence and certainty, the clearly non-apocalyptic future in your vision. You may be right.
Some guy on “Ancient Aliens” last night said that ETs are coming here from the stars to mine our gold … apparently it’s the perfect defense against harmful solar rays and they use it to build their spaceships.
Maybe then it’ll go to 10000 an ounce …
look the only reason to really get into gold or silver is physical, whether its coins, bars, necklaces, rings, whatever. If you really want to get into having a balanced portfolio, you need some physical, not in a vault somewhere (or worse yet a certificate in a box), but in your possession, in your house or on your person. Not a stupid amount, but some.
why?
as a hedge against all hell breaking loose. lol, not like that is ever going to happen… funny how the people who have their well being really wrapped up in the way things are cannot accept that the possibility exists that it will ever change (RE always goes up right? empires never collapse and the electricity never goes off)
besides, its shiny and looks pretty, and wives get real happy when they open a box a there is cool shiny metal inside.
This “reza” dude interviewed city TV had a feeling that real estate is going to have a correction? really? 25 years and he’s a got a feeling so he decides to rent? Oh wait no he’s analyzing the fundamentals…. Hmm… what happened the last time we did that. RE sky rocketed and its not because people were smart or borrowed responsibly. It’s not about playing it safe, its about making use of opportunities.
GOLD VALUE STABLE IN LOOOOOONG TERM?
There are those who argue that the value of Gold is stable when measured over thousands of years.
Well that is great, as long as you plan to live a 1000 years and are happy with zero percent return over 1000 years.
Other than that, Mrs. Methusala, how did you like the (Gold) play?
I’m starting to see sales in Van area with more discount. These sales were from owners that bought earlier so they had more flexibility in their price. Those sales are surely pissing off neighbors as the floor just dropped in that area. The auctions days are pretty much over.
Morgan Stanley prediction for silver: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-commodities-outlook-2012-2011-12#silver-prices-are-volatile-and-could-hit-50-an-ounce-8
BANNED
I know a thing or two about silver, I’ve been following it for years. However, I’m also aware of the maxim: “The markets can insane longer than you can remain solvent”. This maxim applies to all markets…
People have been saying gold is in a bubble since 1000$. The graph sure doesn’t look like a bubble. Just a consistent rise.
Everyone should have some precious metals in their portfolio. just not too much. 15% tops.
(( “The ratio of debt to personal disposable income hit a high of 152.98 per cent in the third quarter from 150.57 per cent in the prior three months, Statscan said Tuesday.”))
To that I say ‘no problem, we can handle even a ratio or 50,000 per cent, we are Canadians, we can do anything !
As for gold and silver: People pile in it when its rising, and once there is a clear sign that the trend has been broken then it stops rising for years, its a dead horse for years, and that is what I see now in Gold and Silver. Unfortunately, the same thing can be said about equities too (stocks).
Wonder if that Re-Max agent in the video will lose his Re-Max job after questioning the company line in public?
Love this website. Long term fan of Garth and am thankful for his advice on many things and not just real estate.
But I have to disagree on this gold issue. It has been by far the best investment for me this past 5 years and I think you have to keep things in perspective.
1) Gartman is a joke when it comes to gold. He called it a bubble at 1100 and went long close to the highs. Wrong on both sides.
2) Just looking at my terminal and using Bloomberg as source. Here is the YTD performance of a few things I follow:
SPX -2.5%
SPX Financials -21.3%
DAX -16.5%
FTSE -7%
HSI -20%
SHCOMP -20%
KOSPI -9.5%
NIKKEI -17%
NIFTY -21.5%
TSE -12.5%
EUR -2.6%
GBP flat
CAD -3.6%
AUD -2.1%
CHF -1.1%
KRW -2.9%
SGD -1.6%
INR -16.7%
CNY+ 3.7%
JPY+ 4.1%
GOLD+ 15.4%
A few comments:
EUR is flat to small down vs the usd this year for all intents and purposes. Despite the massive headline noises this year.
Commodity darlings like cad and aud are also small down. Despite commodities staying in favour.
USD is stronger vs almost all Asian currencies, even favourites like Korean won and Sing dollar(Switzerland of Asia and all).
The can’t lose CNY is up around 4% for the year. Right on pboc’s schedule of a 5% annual appreciation.
And yet, for another year, the JPY reigns supreme in FX land and continues to be the best performing currency AGAIN this year. Despite incessant talks about it’s collapse and the earthquake. How wrong can everyone be about that lovely country before they admit that they have had no clue how it works for the past 25.years?
Stocks are down 10-20% globally. The Us is the huge outperformer despite the downgrade and all the pessimism about the country. and this is with the critical financials down 21% for the year.
So in short, all this negativism in the US since the start of the year was all wrong, again. Spx has outperformed global stocks everywhere and the USD is actually in the upper one third of performance. So all this money printing fear must be wrong, right?
Garth, gold is up+ 15% for the year, even after the recent dip. Compared this to the list above, to housing, to the average hedge fund universe that is probably down -4% for the year. Gold has been one of the best performing asset since 2000, since Lehman, and also in 2011, when everyone still called it a bubble to begin with.
So we might fall to 1400 on the recent technical break. But to exaggerate it’s recent descent and discounting all the irresponsible central bank printing is silly, in my humble opinion.
Aside from this disagreement, thank you for all your good work as always Garth.
@ex-cowtown. actually, the upheaval of the 30s was caused by the credit binge that preceded it in the 20s. sound familiar? gold standard had zero to do with except making it more difficult to debase currency – a good thing btw b/c we are now headed for serial currency crises in all 1st world economies. maybe not hyperinflation but 20% yoy cost of living inflation will do a lot of damage. many seem to conveniently forget that north america came out of gd1 in fantastic shape due to full-scale destruction of all other major competing economies – ww2.
Garth, are you saying you will be dead before gold goes back to $1900?! So I guess you only plan to live for a few more years?? I agree their a lot of gold bugs out there but to take such a hard stance and call a top for gold and imply its bubble has burst is too extreme.
Is that Garth or Gartman? Both have been calling the top since $1000. Both have been wrong. Fundamentals are very strong for the metals. Ignore the top callers and sit tight. The US dollar will reverse – eyes of the world will soon focus on the $100 TRILLION debt the US has to service. Focus on what is coming ahead.
Worse, record gold purchases by China in recent months have done squat to bolster metal prices, which is proof, “a market that cannot or does not respond to bullish news is a bearish one…”
””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””’
Such utter bull sh&t. China’s purchased have doubled over last year.
Learn to read. Purchases up, but price down. A market killer. — Garth
No Garth in fact it is you who has gotten that old time religious fervor, or is that fever. Garth has convinced himself that there isn’t a liquidity crisis out there right now. Although both raw data and actions by central banks, including our own, have provided evidence of such. Garth has convinced himself that paper money is not in a bubble, but that money owned individually by a citizen and even by central banks around the world namely gold is in a bubble. Since 2004 I have quite the return on both gold and silver, whereas my Canadian dollar due to inflation has lost 14.83 on a hundred dollars, and interest at the banks is a no show. And since the inception of fiat money by our Canadian central bank and their expanding money supply circa 1914 it would cost me $ 1880.83 dollars more for the same items bought for a $ 100.00 dollars years ago (1914).
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/
So the central bank of Canada steals from me continually and owns the currency, Canada’s pension and healthcare costs are skyrocketing, manufacturing is in the toilet(never to return), we are presently around 153 debt to income ratio, wallowing in the desire for more and have less earned income to get it, and looking at a soon to be terminal housing downturn.
Europe is in credit and debt distress(watch the news Garth), the shadow banking system is denied by Garth or he sees it as little consequence, wars are spreading all through the middle east, and the US is officially the world’s greatest debtor nation ever and is insolvent to boot. The NY Stock Exchange is run by computer algorithms (not technicals or where stocks/gold/silver should be based on fundamentals), there is rampant corruption in virtually every country, currency is being stolen, and yet Garth in his ever so BOLD way makes a statement(of course to be accepted in blind faith) that the world is all going to be tea and crumpets ever so soon, is plainly and objectively lying to you. If Garth wishes to why doesn’t he just hold a hotel hall meeting and we can all have a you tube debate, with Garth economists on one side and reality accepting economists on the other. Just let us know Garth, and you can bring the whole gang from CIBC, ROYAL BANK, AND TD along. It’d be quite the good time.
‘They forecast the decline and bankruptcy of America, issuer of the world’s reserve currency. Gold would replace it’
not everyone that buys gold thinks that way. the only reason why a lot of people invest in gold is simply because is the only thing that time has shown it goes up. gold might go down more but at the end it will always go up as the majority of speculators believe on it.
Speculating is not investing. — Garth
#7 Seller
Last January I looked at the foreclosures in Alberta, I can’t remember exactly(somewhere around 2300-2400). Now it’s 7484. BC is also up too by about 700.
http://www.foreclosuresearch.ca/bc/index.php?final=Real%20estate
Gold is a good way to transfer wealth from one side of a crisis to the other. We are in a crisis. People will use gold for this purpose until the crisis is over. There is no way to predict the value of gold in dollars or any other currency while this plays out. All we know for sure is that, when the smoke clears, gold will have value.
The paper assets that Garth touts look good until they don’t. Just ask MF clients. Our financial system is firmly in the the hands of criminals. Their crime spree will not be stopped by the corrupted regulators and politicians. The crimes will continue until the people have had enough and send them all to the guillotines.
Have a nice day!
Gartman (or is that Garth) calls a top in gold at $1100…
http://wallstreetpit.com/12150-dennis-gartman-there-is-a-gold-bubble
Holy mackerel! Toronto real estate agent Raza sold everything and is renting now.
This post was pretty distasteful and full of bad facts. Sorry Garth, commodities isn’t your area and it shows. lol
Gold is not down because of demand, gold is down because Euro banks are lending gold to access US dollars. More specifically, central banks are lending US dollars in exchange for borrowing bank’s gold or otherwise said ‘shorting’ gold.
This is common during times of tight liquidity when banks need to fund accounts based in US dollars, however, there is always a blowback to this action which comes from market speculators who begin building long positions that forces the shorts to ‘buy back’ positions.
This is the way gold and silver move—it’s volatile, but if you buyer of gold at the beginning of the year, you’d be quiet happy considering it will close this year for the 10th year in a row as the BEST performing asset. Gold is up 16% YTD at today’s price, but is likely to close at 20-25% by the end of Dec. Second to Gold is 30yr US treasuries (yielding 2% now with nowhere to go), stocks overall down -4% yoy. End.
India and China actually buy MORE when prices drop and if you want read about it check out publications by the World Gold Council.
You are wise Garth and I enjoy you posts, but you still have much to learn about what really haunts the BoC and Ottawa—make no mistake, they will print in fear of their political careers, or maybe lives, cause if they fail, these get triggered…
http://www.economonitor.com/analysts/files/2011/12/Nowakowski-12-13-11.jpg
iK,
Please leave Allah alone. Everytime I hear that name, my day is ruined.
Concerning our Bank of Canada Governor, I have lost respect for his position long time ago. Our present, and past Governors ,Politicians, Banks, CMHC and people are responsible for our high debts.
We are no different than all those countries that are in financial crisis. We are going to suffer the same faith.
As for oil, no matter what happens in the Middle East, oil will go down. Economy will rule.
Say what you will Garth about the metal heads but if used properly, a mix of physical and mining shares can enhance a portfolio nicely. While the world of gold miners may not be for the faint of heart (recently 20 – 30% volatility is part of the 3-week “normal”), if one know how to properly valuate these companies, there are some which are currently trading at very interesting valuations. Personally, I tend to favor silver over gold because it is also an industrial metal. So if the economy magically recovers and all is well, then demand for new high-tech devices will drive the silver price back up. Not saying we’ll see 2000$/oz silver as some people claim, but we could easily see much more than 6%/year increase over the next few years.
Yes the technicals don’t look great, but at the same time technicals tend to only be right about 55% of the time. I prefer to use a combination of thorough fundamental and technical analyses as well as look at macro trends.
I don’t think you are giving the re-hypothecation in shadow banking, the huge amount of cross-border outstandings of many banks and the massive derivatives portfolios of those same banks the right amount of attention they deserve. And yes, I know, most of those derivatives are “netted” but that’ll only be true for as long as nobody goes bust; when that happens, all bets are off. And while I agree with you that REITS and ETFs are a great way to diversify, on the off chance that the world has another 2008 moment, I’d rather have some physical on the side, to sell a couple of days/weeks post crash and then buy REITS when they tank. Current 6.74% yields may be attractive, but if I can get a 70% discount on the initial price, that same dividend ends up around a 25% yield. Case in point Dundee Real Estate during September to December 2008: http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:D.UN
Not saying history ever repeats EXACTLY in the same manner, but sometimes, having PMs (and some cash) on the side is a lot better than you make it out to be. And before you say it: The reason Canadian REITs fell in 2008 is because of human fear and stupidity; same reason that drives some to sell anything at the bottom; rest assured, if the market tanks again, there will be plenty of people panicking and selling stocks of even the most profitable companies, and that includes REITs, ETFs and even miners.
Looks like Garth is into the Crown and coke tonight with the latest anti gold rant. Gartman My God if you want to know whats happening in gold follow Jim Sinclair
*********************************************
Dear Jim,
Just a little reminder to all of where we have come from in terms of gold coin prices and the Canadian dollar investor. Since this journey began back in 2005, we’ve seen a typical staircase being developed. Maple Leafs wandered back and forth 10% or so, from 500-550 dollars per coin, and that carried on for months. When that paradigm was broken out of, with coin prices moving north of 550, they ran to 770, some 40%, before retrenching to 700 dollars. Prices then steadied, and varied within the 10% band, 700-770, for many months. When the 770 level was breached, prices ran to 1043 to buy, before retrenching in a sideways chop from about 900 to 1043. This again was a break of 35% to the upside. Once 1043 was breached, coin prices ran to 1335 or so, before becoming range bound from about 1180 to 1335, the normal 10% or so pulse. Once 1335 was decisively broken, we paused at 1500 or so, and then moved to 1960 on the high side. Another 40% move depending on whether you wish to use 1335 or 1500. The current price range in maples, is now from 1720 on the low side, to 1960 on the high side, a range of about 12%. Note that the percentage numbers have remained about the same all along, while the dollar values have fluctuated greatly. Maples, if past history is any guide at all, should be accumulated by those wishing to add to their positions, as price approaches the 1720 area. This may well be caused by Cando strength or gold price weakness, or a combination of the two.
Volatility is only going to increase as we move forward, but with the unlimited amounts of paper currency being printed every single day, the present trend is unlikely to change any time soon. Many of you may be unaware that the Canadian central bank, amongst others, purchased Euro bonds last week, to “liquify” the system, with money created out of thin air. In fact, it might accelerate. 2012 will be a year of many surprises. Maintain proper cash cushions outside of the system, be patient in your holdings (many gold mining companies are now paying dividends or are increasing them) as the values currently given do not reflect reality in any way, and hold physical gold and silver in bars and coins to deal with depreciating paper. Remember, that all paper currencies, have been devaluing against gold and silver bullion at a 20% annual clip since 2001. I see nothing out there at this point, that would suggest that isn’t going to continue.
We are at year end, where tax loss selling and portfolio rebalancings are going on, so the markets are unpredictable on a day to day basis. It is a time to be buying gold and silver and their related equities, not selling them, and cherry picking those things which make sense. People in Europe are rushing out of euros to buy the paper currency of a bankrupt nation, the US. That’s clever. As Martin Armstrong has alluded, once they’ve finished that dance, and look around to see that the US dollar is no longer a safe haven, I wonder what they might be buying?
CIGA Yahn
Dear CIGA Yahn,
Alf is right. Gold is going to $4500.-
Nobody promised the golden trip would be a rose garden; the promise made was just where it was going.
Regards,
Jim
.
Dear Garth,
Please give Mr. Gartman a day or two. Please do not pin down him based on his one day opinion.
Want to be surprised? Then watch CNBC. He may appear on TV as early as tomorrow morning claiming gold is in a raging bull!
Please… Dear Garth. Please afford Mr. Gartman the ultimate freedom to change his prognostication.
Unlike you who indefatigably hold this pathetic blog for three years, Mr. Gartman’s crystal ball is his minute chart!!!
The only thing pity about gold is that most of them is in the central bank’s hands. That means the price can be manipulated (down), at least in the short term, for political expediency. Remember England’s PM Gordon Brown? Remember at what price he sold England’s two thirds gold?
Enough said.
Garth, I believe your PM doom will fall on deaf ears.
Any one that has done the research knows most of your post today is pro, “system” propaganda.
Quoting Dennis Gartman?
How bout someone who’s made bold calls, and got them right, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Hugh Hendry or Kyle Bass.
Oh…. that’s right, sorry, they’re all gold bulls.
Of coarse, people holding paper gold will dump it cause, to them, it’s just another flip or they need to cover.
The dogs on the blog know this game is rigged.
They understand austerity, is mathematical loser.
They understand the global contagion cost, to an economically failing Europe, to large.
They understand SOMEONE (IMF member countries?) will bail Europe.
And we aren’t even talking about Japan yet.
take care,
Blacksheep
I just read your previous post. You’re on a roll Garth. Carney, the ex-Goldman boy raising interest rates next year? ROFLMAO!!!!
Europe stabalized? Was that a joke? Because I’ll give you one thing, you’ve got a great sense of humour (minus the crossing the line in the homophobic sand with this latest picture).
Anyway, expect more risk not less. If not Europe, then China, if not China then Japan, if not Japan then Iran, if not Iran, then something else… things are getting worse not better, and Stimulous is the only way to buy time in this insane Keynesian of an economy.
Oh and one more thing, you better hope like hell that this latest MF Global blow-up isn’t a sign of more to come, because if another brokerage house manages to lever themselves up the ying yang trying to time Beta moves and *LEGALLY* eradicates their segregated customer accounts via Re-Hypothication… then all bets are off, and we’ll see an unstopabble wave of brokerage house customer money withdrawl. They went WAY too far with MF Global… You don’t mess with grandma’s trading acct, cuz they are still listening to people like you… to buy paper contracts that can go from hero to ZERO, as fast as you can scream DE-HYPOTHICATION!
Proverbs 22 -31
How long, simple ones, will ye love simpleness, and scorners take pleasure in their scorning, and the foolish hate knowledge? Turn you at my reproof: behold, I will pour forth my spirit unto you, I will make known to you my words. Because I have called, and ye refused; I have stretched out my hand, and no one regarded; and ye have rejected all my counsel, and would none of my reproof: I also will laugh in your calamity, I will mock when your fear cometh; when your fear cometh as sudden destruction, and your calamity cometh as a whirlwind; when distress and anguish come upon you: then will they call upon me, but I will not answer; they will seek me early, and shall not find me. Because they hated knowledge, and did not choose the fear of Jehovah; they would none of my counsel, they despised all my reproof: therefore shall they eat of the fruit of their way, and be filled with their own devices.
Be careful where you tread G….
Holy crap. — Garth
Garth,
Silver is not as emotional as RE. People like Tom understand that money printing results in inflation and that the best hedge against inflation is gold & silver. Pretty simple, eh?
Just because we have some price deflation going on now due to a slowing economy, doesn’t mean the silver bugs are wrong.
Tom is 100% right. He needs to hang onto his silver and listen to this: http://www.talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/12/gold-set-to-break-out/
Ross Clark has been pretty spot on. I will never sell my silver and hope that you’re right so I can buy more. Not sure if this will help, but I follow one of the world’s most famous economists: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K85T5j-4JqI
Marc Faber is my hero. He’s even been on TV so he must be good.
Then there’s Canada’s newest billionaire, Eric Sprott. One of his later interviews: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdRY99bgw6E
It is subtitled in French, even. But hey, forget these whackjobs, though. Follow Garth; he’s been spot on…
I feel much better – the CBC’s “Bottom Line” panel loves me, says rates will go up, and housing must come down. If Junius is available for security at the FASTPGFBDCP it would still be appreciated.
And those rates will go up. Soon. Just a little. Cuz I gotta show I mean it.
“And this pathetic blog advised the metalheads to take their profits when the yellow stuff was motoring towards $1,900 an ounce. ”
You told people to sell their PMs when Gold first cracked $1600. Anyone who listened to you would still be down.
When gold smashed past $1800 and $1900, you went silent on PMs.
I started buying metals in early 2011. I knew what kind of volatility existed in the gold market. I was comfortable with the idea of paying $1400 an ounce of gold and seeing it go to $900. I knew I would rather be in that position than holding off, watching it go to $1900, and then not know what the heck to do. I knew that gold collapsed by a third during the 2008 deflation scare. Then it tripled. So if a 33% drop failed to turn gold into a bear market, then how can you, with a straight face, get cocky about a 15% drop in gold from its current peak-to-trough?
Garth, when I read these tirades of yours, I really don’t know what to do other than hang my head and shake it slowly. You talk about these “emotional attachments” to metals when you obviously have no evidence whatsoever that they even exist. I buy metals because I believe they will be one of the highest performing asset classes in the next 5-10 years. I don’t have any emotional attachment. Sure, I do enjoy taking out my gold and silver maple leafs and looking at them them every now and then. Who wouldn’t?
You also lump together the “gold, god, and guns” crowd as though they’re somehow inseparable. In fact, they have absolutely nothing to do with each other. I don’t believe in god because I’m not superstitious, and I don’t believe in owning guns because I’m not paranoid. I believe in gold because I realize that the vast majority of economists and politicians in the world support increased money printing. I believe that this majority will win. That’s all there is to it.
I believe that the EU will ultimately find a way to monetize its debt. It might not, though. There might be a huge banking collapse in Europe causing USD to soar. However, I also believe that the world’s attention will eventually turn to North America, where world’s greatest debt problem actually resides. When that happens, I believe that gold, silver, and oil will all take down their record highs. That’s why I don’t really care about these short term movements. I choose to just get into the metals market and stay. Sure, I’d love to buy all the dips and time everything just right, but I’m not going to even pretend to have any idea how this is all going to play out in the short term. I just know what the end game will be.
Garth, I don’t know what else to say other than you will be shown to be so utterly wrong on this issue, I’m not sure that even you will be able to remain sarcastic and pithy. I truly believe that humbleness will form a much greater part of your personality sometime in the next few years.
“Here’s What $1 Million Will Buy In Housing Markets Around The U.S.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/million-dollar-houses-2011-12
What about Robert Zoellick’s (Chief of the World Bank) comments on a new international gold standard?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-bank-chief-calls-for-new-gold-standard-2010-11-07?dist=afterbell
If governments can print/monetize/create-a-liability-swap without killing the currency, why do they need to tax?
Stirring the Gold pot again…As with many investments Gold and Silver are not really meant for day trading. Much of the world community takes Gold very seriously and there is a good argument for individuals to hold some as well.
Speaking of holding Gold, I toured a mine in North Skatch years ago and held 80 pounds of about 95% pure bullion in my hands – about $520,000 US at the time. Once you hold a solid amount of gold in your hands – believe me – you WANT it. It’s amazing , very primal, very cool indeed.
Buying PM’s on greed and selling the next week on a major downdraft (like Silver has often done) is sad – but everyone seems to learn how to invest by trial and error.
Having said that, it is my experience that when you hand another person your money it’s usually an error. I get a feeling of sick resignation when I see my mutual funds disappear. A few thousand here, a few thousand there – all the initial promises dissolved. No benefit to the money because it’s gone. Doesn’t seem to matter which bank, which fund, which tax credit scheme and which era, the paper investments over the past 30 years on average is really not something to believe in.
So what IS there to believe in? Commercial property and physical Gold and Silver. I hope like hell that the bottom falls out of the PM market so that I can go shopping. For that portion of my money that is “invested” it’s not about the paper dollars – it’s about ounces in hand!
Yes, Gartman and Garth have much in common .. 90% of their Gold calls have been dead wrong!
During Garth’s last trip to Kelowna (Nov ’09 I believe) with Gold just over $1200, Garth parroted the Gold “is a bubble” story. He was wrong then, he is wrong now. Fortunately I was in the lobby telling people the hard facts and met many friends who continue to buy Gold and Silver on all dips.
Garth, do your homework.
Paper Price Suppression Has Made Silver the Biggest Buy Ever! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCCuLMgyUgY&feature=player_embedded
And be very careful calling out the bugs – we’ve been right for a decade now.
Denial is more than a river. — Garth
Well, the wheels are starting to fall off on the west side of Hamilton, aka Ancaster. Lots of inventory. Quite a few geezers I’ve seen have pulled their unsold homes off the market, and now I’m starting to see a few vacant homes around town. My guess is older folks downsizing to condos (seems to be the big thing) but not being able to get their asking on their current home, so off they go to the new digs, leaving behind tired looking properties some of which are now up for rent. And for the first time ever, I’ve come across what looks like a foreclosure. Agent’s sign is on the lawn, but a paper taped to all the windows requests that inquiries be made to a Toronto finance company. Not sure what the deal there is but this once beauty four-bedroom home looks rundown, abandoned and in need of serious maintenance.
Then, to top it all off, the wife and I go to our favourite Indian restaurant in a fancy Ancaster strip mall, and we are pleasantly surprised to see the owners have expanded their cramped little restaurant into the unit next door. How so? Well, next door to them is a real estate broker who is in the midst of downsizing the number of agents. Sign of things to come? We’ll see.
Depends on whether you prefer hard assets or promissory notes (and in these I include Bonds). The PMs are always a bit speculative, whils the base metals were more volume (and I note that copper and iron spot prices have, and continue to, fall!)
Again, nothing like a good mix of paper and hard assets (esp. if your paper assets have a financially reliable issuer).
As to the US retaining Reserve Currency status – there was a time in the past when the US$ was NOT the Reserve currency, and there WILL be a time in the future when it is no longer the Reserve currency. When that is, is anyone’s guess but the Yuan / Renmimbi is becoming a significant “pretender to the throne”, and unless the US does a lot more to fix the (as yet unfixed-at-all) underlying problems with the economy, the “threat” will not disappear overnight.
Aussie Update
ABS debt data
Commercial loans soared 16.5 per cent in the month on a seasonally adjusted basis, driven by a surge in revolving credit, the Australian Bureau of Statistics says.
But investment property loans partially offset those gains, down 2.9 per cent after rising the same amount in September.
In a further sign of weakness in the property sector, home loans to owner occupiers also shrank, down 1.2 per cent after gaining 0.7 per cent the month before.
Personal finance commitments rose 5.2 per cent and lease finance fell 2.4 per cent.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-13/lending-finance-abs-october/3728922?section=business
More silly speculation, now with Aussies Super (401Ks)
Australian super funds and offshore pension investors are circling around direct real estate as they evolve towards creating their own portfolio, according to AMP’s head property fund manager.
Chris Judd, AMP’s head of property funds management, said in a media briefing that AMP has a fairly optimistic view of direct real estate in Australia for 2012 with returns predicted of around 8.5 – 9.5%.
When asked whether more super funds would invest in direct property, Judd was confident trends would emerge even over the next 12 months.
http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/12517854/
Cost of living just keeps going up
FORGET the lucky country – Australia has been branded the land of the great big rip-off.
http://www.news.com.au/money/australia-among-the-worlds-priciest-on-food-housing/story-e6frfmci-1226221360942#ixzz1gUqZSaP6
Bananas, books, cars, housing and retail are all areas where Australians are paying too much, according to Dr Hartwich.
“We are always told we are living in this miracle economy, the envy of the world, the one economy that survived the GFC, and it’s all true, but ordinary consumers do not feel they are living in this blessed economy – they actually feel ripped off and overcharged,”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-14/aussie-consumers-ripped-off-overcharged-report/3730444
What ! Aussie house prices not sustainable, who would have thought that – LOL
GLOBAL ratings agency Moody’s has warned it has serious misgivings about Australia’s housing market amid fears the property bubble will burst.
In a new report, Moody’s says it has Australia’s mortgage insurance industry on “negative” watch and current prices for Australian houses are “not sustainable” despite recent falls.
http://www.news.com.au/money/property/price-slide-fears-send-shiver-through-market/story-e6frfmd0-1226221461085#ixzz1gUr4fTq8
CHINA
About 45 minutes outside of Beijing are the deserted ruins of what was supposed to be the world’s largest amusement park. Instead, farmers have reclaimed the land planting corn and digging wells next to spires modeled after Disneyland.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/chinas-deserted-fake-disneyland.html
No bubble here, the RE industry tells me so – LOL
Will the real Garth Turner stand up!!
Are you on vacation or ill?? The responses to our comments … Well just not the same.
I’m full of surprises. Now buzz off. — Garth
Aussie Update
I have posted this before but it’s worth taking another look. Garth here is someone who agrees with you description of house porn.
Replace the names of the TV shows with your local ones, does it then sound like Canada?.
THERE’S a new obsession threatening to take over our airwaves: property porn and we can’t get enough.
Switch on free-to-air or pay television and you’ll find countless shows about real estate (not forgetting websites, sections in print media and apps). It doesn’t even matter if the program is set overseas, we’re eager to consume content centred on people’s efforts to build, secure, fix, invest in or off-load their homes
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/property-porn-satisfies-our-lust/story-e6frerdf-1226209628142
Garth just one point, I don’t agree Govts issue money other than the printed stuff. Central banks and Commercial banks control the “credit money” supply.
Federal Reserve policy is the most important determinant of the money supply. The Federal Reserve affects the money supply by affecting its most important component, bank deposits.
Here is how it works. The Federal Reserve requires depository institutions (commercial banks and other financial institutions) to hold as reserves a fraction of specified deposit liabilities.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html
#21 Bottoms_Up on 12.13.11 at 9:51 pm
Gold was actually created inside really really large stars. That’s why it’s rare.
What? Oh you must mean like these ones…
http://yogamagazine.discover-yoga-online.com/dont-sweat-the-small-stuff.html
Ignore the yoga stuff, look at the pics and wonder just how much gold one of these really really large stars might have produced.
Garth do you or any one else have any comments on seg funds?
Stay away. — Garth
That has got to be the saddest news report I have ever seen. I live in the beeches (one of the hottest markets in Toronto) and I can tell you there are real estates agents everywhere and their advertising is everywhere. A few are good seasoned professionals that have seen it all are here but most are either people working in the real estate industry as a part-time gig or doing as a “last chance” career. Like the second agent they interviewed who is bullish on the state of real estate in Toronto, wasn’t he a reporter, that worked at the same TV station?Do people really think that we have the shortest attention spans in all of Canada? Why in the world would you interview that guy out of all the real estate agents in the beeches? I looked at Desmond Brown’s website. His website claims he worked as paperboy, pizza delivery guy, operated a taxi cab, ran successful offices, then fulfilled his “lifelong dream” of working as a journalist, at multiple news organizations. Buuuuuuttttttt nnnnnnnooooowwwww, he’s selling real estate. Am I really going to believe that he’s right that now is a perfect time to buy an/or sell a house? If that’s the best person they could find, to talk about the future of real estate, and you believe it, well, there’s nothing or nobody, not even “You’re sexy and you know it” Garth Turner, is going to save you. Consider it a Financial Culling of the Herd.
And by the way, the lady that pretending to be the Smoking Man, though you’re mildly amusing, you should try to start your own blog instead of riding the coat tails of others. Weren’t you banned from The Globe and Mail’s comment section?
(Go Flyers!)
#24 White Knight
“To Mr. Lahey, my error good sir. It was my first time. I often lash out unprovoked. Tell Ricki I will mount my winged steed this night and head out east. I’ll be needing a halfbag of weed.”
Very nice of you to apologize White Knight and glad to hear you can make it to the FASTPGFBDCParty. Ricky has been informed of your acceptance to the party and request noted. We will even set aside the trailer next to Ricky’s trailer for you. Ricky and the rest of the Sunnyvale gang are looking forward to meeting you!
Good morning blog dogs. So that everyone knows, the all knowing, all wise, mystic reader of financial tea leaves and former right honourable parliamentarian Garth Turner, aka our fearless leader is now firmly in his trailer with the granite countertops. Bubbles and Julian went out to pick up our special guest of honour last night in Halifax. A roar went up in the park when our esteemed guest arrived. Garth will be given the royal tour of Sunnyvale today, check out the Clydesdales and decorated wagons for the parade, the former weed field of Ricky (thanks for letting us use it Ricky)that will be used in the ploughing match, Westernman’s Massey Ferguson tractor flown in via Fed Ex (thanks again Ricky!) and of course the now eye patched Ron Paul. This morning we will be having brunch at Barb’s house. I have never seen the park so ablaze with excitement. Mark Carney is due to arrive tomorrow morning and the bearded one thought it would be a fun idea if we pick him up off his gov’t plane with our Clydesdales and wagons! He said he wants to have a long drawn out chat with Carney before their big debate this weekend. That’s the update today folks. Only a couple of days left before the FASTPGFBDCParty so please RSVP and start headed east to Sunnyvale. Please note that Captain Garth will be working out of Sunnyvale Trailer Park for the next several days.
Hm … does the US has any credible plans to repay or at least stabilize its debt? Does Europe? Other than printing, that is.
Divine wealth? Garth wasting time on Gold again? While he diverts your attention there, let me break the crisis in Europe in very simple terms.
European banks have $40 trillion in assets.
U.S banks have $14 trillion in assets.
Therefore, Europe’s economy is roughly the size of the U.S. but their banking system is nearly 3 times larger. But there is more. Those assets consist mainly of Asian debt and PIIGS debt. The PIGGS debt is mostly garbage. The stress of the PIIGS debt is impairing the lending facility of Euro banks and the overall credit and CDS markets and is also impairing Asia’s largest source of liquidity which is indirectly hurting emerging market growth.
The European banks need to deleverage to the size of the American banks and that is the rub. There is no orderly way to do that without the system imploding because they don’t have enough capital to withstand the deleveraging process. Moreover, without printing Euros there isn’t enough capital to support such a develeraging process. Not to mention printing isn’t within the ECB’s mandate because of it’s sole target with respect to containing inflation which is anathema to money printing.
Therefore, “divine wealth” in the form of trillions has to magically appear to solve this situation. That isn’t forthcoming. So while Garth rubs his hands with glee the pospect of a gap down move in Gold, it has much harsher implications to his short term position in equities (2012), than it does the long run trend in the precious metal.
Worry about yourself, not Europe. They’ll survive. — Garth
” I also suggested reasonable people make gold 5% of their portfolio, and sell consistently to keep it that way.”
Garth, you’ve consistently been unenthusiastic when talking about investing in gold. Just curious, why would you suggest that anyone even put as little as 5% into gold? Five percent of a large portfolio could be a significant amount of money, which could be better invested in something else, could it not?
Am I to take away from this that Garth is comparing goldbugs to the hateful nutters in that picture? Even in jest, that crosses some sort of line. I’m not PC by any stretch, but there are plenty of ways of ridiculing those you disagree with without comparing them to the trash in that picture. You’re actually pretty good at the ridicule thing, and I’ve enjoyed many a laugh at the expense of others on this “pathtic blog” of yours. But holy crap, I wouldn’t compare my worst enemy to those losers, and certainly not with imagery.
If you don’t get it, I can’t help you. — Garth
62 walter safety on 12.13.11 at 11:33 pm “………Physical gold is hard to buy compared to writing a cheque for a mutual fund……”
Maybe marginally harder….you might have to go to a bank branch twice, instead of mailing a cheque or doing some kind of e-Transfer :
http://www.scotiamocatta.com/products/buy.htm
Anyway, it’s not the difficulty that’s discouraging, it’s the retail price.
Schmucks like most of us who are buying a few ounces or less per transaction get dinged about 10% over the market price.
I’ve never sold gold back to a dealer, but I’m betting I will only get the market price if/when I try…….Guess if you buy gold, and you’ll need a helluva good rally just to get yourself up to flat!
I’ll stick with the G-man’s plan and keep PMs to a sane percentage, and will only buy when more of the the fundamentals support the market price.
Question – will your gold holdings be a hedge against a falling Canadian dollar?
It looks to me like the americans are repatriating their money. The Cando looks like it’s about to break it’s 200 day moving average.
Garth,
Wow…..interesting blog today. I’m not quite sure why you choose to ignore certain facts….. and yet you lead many of your followers to believe that everything is OK in the financial world.
You never want to address the illegal manipulation of the metal prices…….you never want to address the derivative nightmare…..you simply want to support a fiat currency system which is in the process of imploding.
Gold will be over $2000 early in the new year as the traders go after the US dollar. More and more people are educating themselves as to what is really happening in the world and will take advantage of the trading chop of silver/gold by buying on the dips.
Prediction: Ron Paul wins Iowa……because its a paper ballot where as other states are electronic voting machines. We all know the establishment doesn’t want him to win because the whole financial charade would be over!!!!!
It’s all good.
Cheers,
Trev16
RP is marginal. Deservedly so. — Garth
I love it when you poke the hoarders nest.
I own all of 10oz silver. Think it might be time to start buying a little at a time on the way down, so I can pass it on to my kids for the next bubble.
joeonyourside “30,000 condemned homes need to be taken down in northeast Ohio. Do you live near one? tell me about it.”
Garth, I ‘CHOIPED’ a follow-up over to joeonyourside early this morning. We don’t get TWITTER or have a TWEET feature here in Brooklyn. So, if you see a large excavator rolling down your street, you will know what’s up. I told the demolition crew they won’t have to pay a border crossing fee of $5.50 … that’s a Harper negotiated benefit ONLY for Canuckistani’s.
http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/money/consumer/troubleshooter/newschannel5-launches-building-better-neighborhoods-to-help-with-houising-crisis-aftermath#84770133-1
RP is marginal. Deservedly so. — Garth
…..does that mean you won’t wear a RonPaul2012 t-shirt if I send you one?
Cheers,
Trev16
Bandit will love it. — Garth
Things do sure get weird ’round here when Garth talks gold.
More facts for Garth from the World Golf Council
EU Gold Investment Demand Surges 135% 3rd Quarter 2011: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eu-gold-investment-demand-surges-135-world-demand-6-q3-2011.
I’m also bearish on golf. How did you know? — Garth
First off Garth, your right about the real estate market bubble.
Your sort of right about a gold & silver market that you have always been bearish about. (By the way you were telling investors not to over do their gold investments back when it was 250.00 $ an oz. That tip alone lost your clients a huge amount of money. Invest in the markets ,you said instead (5% for precious metals).
Well we know how well that worldwide longterm investment tip has faired for most. (Unless of course unless your a bank or JP Morgan type investment firm with inside long & short derivative contracts and inside info)
I agree gold & silver are over bought and also being held down by central banks. So investing in them now is a futile attempt at survival in a imploding financial system.
Garth how do you think stocks will do when interest rates go up in 2012 world wide. Some central banks will go back on low interest rate agreements that were made with nobody but the media)
Garth you have always been a shill for the stock market and various corporations. I know you wont admit to this or that your backing a rigged game . I also know you will come back at me with some sort of Goldman Sachs investment ratio statistic or something even more brilliant. (Remember the intelligent people are the most easily brainwashed)
Garth , complete respect for you and your opinions. Please dont take me the wrong way, but just because the world fiat system hasnt completely crashed yet, and americas status aa world currency hasnt changed yet,dont be so optimistic your right. Metaphorically speaking…. When a man stands in the middle of a railway track and a on coming train hasnt hit him yet , because the conducter, slammed on the brakes and slowed down that train, dosent mean the train will come to a stop ….. , that trains still sliding, and that man is still dead in his tracks.
Best investment tip in a near furute ,high interest deflationary enviroment ,you could ever give out now is take cover, World War Three or worse is on the way. This current capitlistic system is dead in the water, and when this illusionary financial crapshoot crashes, you better be able to sustain yourself or parish .
The rich are going to take a bad spill soon. Stocks will sell off, gold & Silver will sell off, to cover losses, real estate will continue to crash even further(yes even in the great white north). Demand for metals will fall. Oil will remain high because of middle east problems and regionalwars, consumers, will go into hiding and the greatest depression man has ever experienced will hit.
Spiritual enlightment , farmland, and tinned goods and natural medicine are your best bets.
One last note, the Sun, sky, grass,trees , mountains, rivers , lakes and oceans will remain unchanged …..be happy and treat mother earth right and all this material crap i spewed out above wont mean anything to you.
I did not comment on gold at $250 an ounce. Try a little research. It would assist your credibility and Nature would be happier with you. — Garth
Garth, I know you are aware your Finance Minister hasn’t helped your housing or debt markets. In fact, I suspect a fairly ripe foreclosure market coming to the neighborhood. Why does the FM continue to conceal his bad advice?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/special-investigation-how-high-risk-mortgages-crept-north/article727831/singlepage/
“Just yesterday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty repeated the mantra that the government acted early to get rid of risky mortgages. What he and Prime Minister Stephen Harper do not explain, however, is that the expansion of zero-down, 40-year mortgages began with measures contained in the first Conservative budget in May of 2006.”
“Flaherty and his government’s role in contributing to the present need to dial back deserve some attention as we listen to him today, as he attempts to portray his government as exercising prudent oversight over these mortgage rules. That’s not the whole story. They have a record going back five years on this issue now that has not been a history of prudent oversight.”
http://impolitical.blogspot.com/2011/01/mortgage-rules-now-and-then-with-jim.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-dirty-subprime-secret/article317737/singlepage/#articlecontent
‘My’ finance minister? F would enjoy seeing me under a bus. — Garth
“Ron Paul is marginal, and deservedly so” Garth
Garth, you really need to do some homework, here’s is Dr. Paul’s on Fannie and Freddie in 2002:
Ironically, by transferring the risk of a widespread mortgage default, the government increases the likelihood of a painful crash in the housing market. This is because the special privileges of Fannie, Freddie, and HLBB have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing.
Like all artificially-created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged over-investment in housing.”
http://www.wtffinance.com/2011/04/ron-paul-forecasts-the-housing-bubble-in-2002/
#125 Alistair Mac,
I am PC and I am not offended by the picture. I get the irony and the hypocrisy implied in it.
It has been a well established fact that many of the most ant-gay politicians and activists are actually gay themselves. This ranges from US Senators like Larry Craig to many Congressman and other anti-gay activists. There is a terrific HBO documentary on it and the people who expose these people as hypocrites, frauds and self deceptive. Fear and self loathing. Very sad.
Get it yet?
#89dd
Learn to read. Purchases up, but price down. A market killer. — Garth
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The phys market will seperate from the paper market. Watch and learn.
More excuses. — Garth
Maybe this is the REAL reason that house price statistics coming out of the RE cartels are so high?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547
“Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years”
That’s your best Garth!!! Just try not to forget these words of yours for at least three years. Yes, you are right about real estate but in case of monetary metals, USD, US economy and Europe – you are delusional. Just plain stupid. Time will prove it.
That was convincing. BTW, I have deleted 23 comments so far today that did nothing but shred me. As I have said in the past, no group of visitors to this blog are more dogmatic or uncivil than bullion pumpers. If you cannot make an argument without personally attacking those who disagree, you have none. — Garth
#85 CognitiveDissonance … Lets start by pretending I have made all the proper qualifications regarding the following statements concerning Japan (you know stuff like nobody or nothing comes even close to approximating perfect and all the other criticisms concerning Japan and the Japanese people such as they are not as expressive and individualistic as many think they should be…YADA YADA YADA). Now that we got that out of the way onward…I was sitting in my house today when yet another earthquake hit. It was only a magnitude 3 but it jolted the whole house up and down once or twice followed by a gentle lateral swaying back and forth for what seemed to be an eternity but actually was only like 10 seconds (forget bullet time, they should have earthquake time in 3d movies). We had another quake centered directly under us a week or so ago that was only magnitude 2 but caused more concern as it indicates to me heightened activity along our fault lines. None of this is news in Japan. For me the real kicker is the highest concentration of nuclear reactors likely on the planet scant kilometers from my house all overshadowed by one of the reactors which is plutonium based. Not a peep out of anyone all day about the quake or potential danger. Nothing. They are not burying their heads in the sand either. All the people I know are more than capable to speak at length about their concerns. No one missed work or went home early in the face of real peril (usual 12 to 15 hour work days across the region and country). It is not that the Japanese would be like this if they lived anywhere else. They are as they are because of the land they live upon. For ages the land has both supported and traumatized them and they have evolved into a people whose currency still holds value even after a crisis of such magnitude that it would finished off many economies. Stunning, simply stunning.
Don’t know if anybody watched the CBC National Bottom Line last night. Some housing bubble talk by two of the commentators and that “housing prices are fueled by low interest rates and giddy optimism.”
” real estate prices in Canada are marching to a different beat of a different drummer on a different planet.”
More about debt and the real estate bubble popping
http://www.cbc.ca/thenational/watch/
Starts at about 36:00
China’s Real Estate market will continue to slow. I guess it is not different there. Where is BPOE and the Professionals (sounds like an 80s big hair new wave group).
Here is Bloomberg on it:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-14/china-affirms-property-curbs-even-as-global-outlook-very-grim-economy.html
I HATE pictures like that Garth. Stupid inbred people that do not know how to read. NOWHERE in the bible does it say what that dimwit has on his posters……
God loves EVERYBODY!!!!!
The sin is another matter……
Worry about yourself, not Europe. They’ll survive. — Garth
Survive and transform into what?
Your 2012 equity bullishness won’t. THAT’S the point Garth. You will see it even if you choose to continue to have your blinders on.
Take yours off. Equities are but one element of a balanced approach to investing and wealth preservation. — Garth
when that idiot Gartman says gold is entering a bear market, you know its time back up the truck and buy more gold, how often does that over leveraged trader have to be wrong before the media stops listening to him!?
Garth the only responsible thing for you to say concerning gold during a panic sell off, is to recommend that people buy it.
$2000+ gold is sooooo close, the fools will be price chasing it within a few months from now. There is not one single fundamental negative for gold right now, not one…except perhaps for bankster manipulation…so they can buy every ounce, and every gold company share from the panic liquidators.
Merry Christmas, Vancouver!
Vancouver raises rates for water, sewer, garbage
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/12/13/bc-vancouver-property-rate-hike.html
Censorship:
Is the suppression of speech or other public communication which may be considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or inconvenient to the general body of people as determined by a government, media outlet, or other controlling body.
take care,
Blacksheep
Then be respectful. — Garth
#132 DodgedBullet on 12.14.11 at 9:33 am…
Last few days things around this blog have been getting very strange. Smoking Man making sense (until today), Westernman digging a deeper hole by the day.
The boys of Sunnyvale volunteering to host a retreat (or asylum) for the dawgs, Vancouver Island weather in the desert, what is next?
Of course I agree with you, but I’m sure the professor was missing the metal nutbars – he is well aware of what would happen when a suggestion is made to sell the golden fleece.
I did, however, enjoy the real estate agent – despite the fact he has his own agenda as some have suggested.
I was out at a function last night and a well knowen real estate agent told me that the market for high end (1M+) real estate in oakville has evapourated, nobody looking!! Although the 600-900k market continues to move.
I sold in 2008 and the brand new house that I rent has been listed @ 799k (11 unit complex sold out pre-construction/2009 @ 875-925k) since April and 1 showing in the last 2 months.
It is going to take a while but the TO market is showing signs of distress and all we hear and read about is doom and gloom.
The next decade will see alot of grief for everybody, things are not as they appear. I am fifty next year, my generation accepted greed as good and have never figured out the meaning of life., our children have been raised to think that they are entitled to anything and generally seem to be lost, spoiled and unhappy. My generation has completely failed God and our brothers and sisters. We will all pay dearly for our greed.
Blessed are the poor, for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven.
…for I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me. I was naked and you clothed me, I was sick and you visited me, I was in prison and you came to see me…
…the poor will forgive you the bread you give them…
#129 Realitybytes.
I have a dozen silver Maple Leafs and a 1/2 ounce gold nugget, give them to my kids on birthdays etc…Buy a couple at a time when they dip. It’s fun when it is not a serious part of my portfolio.
Gotta love the delusional RE agent citytv interviewed after that Raza guy saying the prices will keep going up because of our “great” economy!! LOL…. someone tell him to look up “Europe”.
Housing is the most manipulated market in the world.
See
http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html
its a fib measure move support 1410 1270 1136
on gold
QE1 and QE2 was put in place just waiting for the EURO zone crisis to unfold. Last ditch effort to move the wealth from the middle class and now that the Eurozone is in full downswing the US looks good and blame can be placed in Europe followed by China.
Oh we are so globally manipulated I mean connected.
Now the elite suck the middle class dry in Europe for 3 years along with China who has no middle class but great consumer potential.
China will be reset under the new government, evolve into a western model by the elite ready for future domination! Arent cycles intersting! Interesting how the shift of wealth and money is so easy now.
Your constant “discrediting” of gold bugs is disheartening to me. Over the past decade I have gleaned much from reading the various goldbug blogs and listening carefully to the advice and recommendations of such giants as Marc Faber, and Jim Puplava. I will give you credit for telling bullion horders like myself to take their profits at $1,900. But – were all your gold calls so prescient. What advise would you have had for me when in 2002 I took my life savings and purchased gold and silver bullion with it? I agree that today the value proposition of buying bullion is not as clearly compelling as it was 10 years ago. But for goodness sakes – can’t you see what’s out there? Sometimes I think you have lost touch with just how shaky the grounds are that modern day financing rests on. We are not exactly going through a garden variety recession here. The shadow banking credit creation system in the US has completely blown up and it will be a very long time before we can get the public and foreigners participating in this again. That leaves governments and central banks to do all the heavy lifting. Debasement is always the tempting very easy way out. I think you did your clients a disservice by having them take profits to keep their gold at 5%. Yes I agree we will get through this mess one way or another over time – but the only asset that I can say categorically – confidently that will have “A” VALUE are the precious metals. I am holding all of my bullion from 2002 and putting new money to work on income producing real estate. The balanced portfolio which you swear by is for my retired mother – and for my 401(k) where the option to make real investments does not exist.
Brave words from a guy snapping up US properties. — Garth
Looks more like yearend selling in gold. People who buy gold or who bought gold seems to have dreamt up every excuse known to mankind for gold to go up. The bottom line is gold should react to deflation that will only get more pronounced in the coming years. Expect a large yearend rally in gold on December the 22nd and ending January the 4th 2012. The rest of 2012 should be down for gold, sliver, stocks and all commodities.
Just as I said a month ago, as did Jim Rogers and a few other notables, they will push the worthless US Dollar up again one last time. Why, because they can. Does it make sense? Doesn’t have to, its a trade.
It will be the last great buying opportunity for precious metals for a long time to come. Wait for the Dollar to top out probably around the end of January when the pain of a falling stock markets becomes so great that QE3 is annouced. What a surprise.
Oh by the way Garth, I like farmland too so I guess that makes me a farmed out metal head.
By the way, it seems awfully reminiscent of what happened in 2008. In 3 months time PM and PM stocks were all back to their previous levels.
#119 Nickolaos Vlittas on 12.14.11 at 7:06 am
(Go Flyers)
No Giroux, no Pronger, no Schenn, no no no show!!!
Humpty Dumpty on 12.14.11 at 2:47 am
Proverbs 22 -31
“How long, simple ones, will ye love simpleness, and scorners take pleasure in their scorning, and the foolish hate knowledge….?”
*****************************
Where did THIS come from?
“Holy crap!” is right… LOL
Take yours off. Equities are but one element of a balanced approach to investing and wealth preservation. — Garth
EXACTLY!!! That’s why I focus more on the credit markets to base my investment decisions and you’ve basically ignored them and focused on Gold and Corporate profits and U.S. equities and some macro data.
Your thesis that bond prices will go down and yields will go up in the U.S. in 2012 is misguided if you study the global credit markets right now. They are telling you that in 2012 corporate profits will be under pressure, equity markets will gap down and then be flat and yields will be lower to neutral.
You focus on the pain that will be felt in housing in Canada but we will survive that as well. What’s your point? The pain still has to manifest regardless of how long we stall that pain and in the process make the eventual pain much worse. That is what is going to happen on a much larger macroeconomic scale. You are miopic and focus solely on housing and ignore all the other fallout. That is what makes you have blinders on. I look at the big global picture and how everything is interconnected. That is why I do not have blinders on.
Re: #146 long Gold on 12.14.11 at 11:18 am
Buy gold at or near the close December the 21st this year. Sell it before the close January the 4th next year.
‘My’ finance minister? F would enjoy seeing me under a bus. — Garth
I beg your pardon. I forgot your previous incarnation, in which you ingratiated yourself to a LOYAL public following, but not the Harper BORG.
I particularly remember your stalwart defense of Income Trust investors after the Haloween Massacre, October 31, 2006. Read a negative e-mail response, whip it to the floor of Parliament. Democracy at its best.
#140 Joe Bloggs on 12.14.11 at 10:34 am
That’s your best Garth!!! Just try not to forget these words of yours for at least three years. Yes, you are right about real estate but in case of monetary metals, USD, US economy and Europe – you are delusional. Just plain stupid. Time will prove it.
Wow Garth. How did this directly insulting comment make it to the board? My comment defining “flippers” was deleted and wasnt even insulting.
Well, Garth is starting to look like a prophet, or perhaps an insider trader, following this article. At least on the immediate short term. Silver just shot down two dollars USD and is now trading at $28.9. This is the price I bought my last piece of bullion until I sold 75% of it at around $42 in August. I kept my better quality coins because they’re still trading for around the same on E-Bay, but the conventional bullion I had to sell off when I saw a bear flag staring me in the face. In addition, QE3 hasn’t started yet, which caused me to pause when going bullish on silver short term.
The truth of the matter is the men and women who are the “Gods” that run this world are taught that depression is bad. They’re taught to avoid depression at any costs. They’re, for the most part, unable to think beyond what they were taught in school. They can’t see past their economics degrees.
They’ll start printing, they’ve just allowed the depression to mildly take place in order to get silver into a bear trap. That way they can scare off all the small investors. Once the market bottoms out they’ll just print (QE3) and the price will rocket. It’s a classic dump and pump scheme.
@sam.i.am:
“The idea that the Government is imposing its will on free men, forcing them to settle private debts using USD, is offensive to some. “
It’s also complete nonsense.
US citizens (and Canadians too, for that matter) are free to settle private debts using whatever currency they wish. US dollars, gold bullion, Denny’s coupons, goats … whatever they want. There is no legal requirement that all purchases have to be done using US dollars.
Gord In Vancouver on 12.14.11 at 11:21 am
“Vancouver raises rates for water, sewer…”
**********************************
And rates will continue to rise until we get the message. Duh! Here in the Okanagan we are referred to as ‘water hogs’ — we use twice the Canadian average.
#151 Kev Creditors/sellers must accept payment denominated in dollars. A seller cannot *demand* payment in some other form be it gold silver whatever, they MUST accept payment denominated in dollars. Gold is not money. Neither are goats.
excellent advice garth
”if you must have a silver play, at least buy some shares in precious metals companies and get some income.”
may I add if they are not pouring silver or gold [at a profit]and have a lot of property to mine,
Dont buy them….
if they are still being priced as an explorer so much the better.
Post number should have been #167 Kevin…
#105 Blog Dog Carney
“I feel much better – the CBC’s “Bottom Line” panel loves me, says rates will go up, and housing must come down. If Junius is available for security at the FASTPGFBDCP it would still be appreciated.”
Well I understand your concern Mr. Carney but I can’t very well assure you Junius will be available for security when Junius hasn’t RSVP’d to the FASTPGFBDCParty. Julian and Bubbles have offered their services though I suspect Junius might be more reliable. It is Junius’ court now.
@ Peter NYC from a few days ago…thanks for the pointers. I did follow up on the SC properties. No hassles but there’s not much left after fees, financing and tax. Gonna sit tight for now.
Hi #148Blacksheep, Thanks for posting here. Here’s Just my two cents.
I’m not the sharpest pencil in the box, but #140 Joe Bloggs comment of G ‘Just plain s…’
would have looked better to me if J had change it to something like ‘I think you are incorrect because …’,
or ‘I don’t agree because…’. And who knows, the information you have to share could be very helpful to someone reading it, even G.
Of course I don’t know what your comment was that kept G from posting it, nor do I want to.
IMO this may help you insure your comments are posted. Re-read from time to time, the ‘helpful reminder from your form host’, that’s just above the comment input window. Then read over what you typed before hitting the submit buttom. After all this blog is Mr. G’s. But what do I know?
#137 Junius on 12.14.11 at 10:06 am
Good points.
I have often thought that “America protesteth too much methinks” when it comes to their irrational fear of child molesters lurking everywhere.
The Penn State scandal shows that it probably is more prevalent than previously thought.
That picture really does fit the subject of the post.The parable to the gold guys around this blog is too easy to make. It is almost like their vocal outcries are more to convince themselves that they are on the right path.
There will easily be over 200 comments today made here, mostly from them.
Junius, now explain how the picture ties into the write-up, which was all about the silly gold bugs. Oh I’m sure there is some clever irony and satire there somewhere.
Where are my crayons? — Garth
NY times wrote a piece on asset deflation a few months back. Fact is everything comes back to normal prices whether we like it or not. Canadian Real Estate appreciated 30 to 40% more than U.S. Prices between these 2 trading parties have always been within 5-10%.
Now we will see a steep decline that was inevitable but only problem is many individuals will be severely hurt. This is not a good thing and Carney, Flarehty and Harper have to take responsibility.
#175 OttawaMike,
I think the sad lesson of the Penn State situation is that putting someone in a position where they are taught to feel ashamed for their natural feelings leads to self loathing and sometimes unfortunate acts. Just ask the Catholic (and other) church.
This doesn’t excuse the behaviour but it does partially explain why gay tolerant societies have fewer of these sort of crimes.
Hi #175OttawaMike, re: irrational fear of child molesters lurking everywhere.
I’ve been trying to avoiding flying because I’ve seen some non corporate news reports and testimonials about the unwanted touching and/or naked picture scanning questionable irradiation one could be subjected too. Irrational fear, maybe, in air-‘plane’ sight?
People just doing what they are told to do, with the unspoken threat of loss of income that they need to survive, has sometimes lead to very unpleasant outcomes for them and others. At least this has been reported in some history books.
Just my two cents.
Great Post Garth,
It’s incredible the timing of this post as just this morning I was researching where to buy PM’s local. It is refreshing to hear a non doom and gloom argument and would love to hear more facts that you base your opinion on ( like how the US will ever pay back debts ect ). However as I have commented on before I have been spending time trying to learn where to invest, smartly and safely ( which I appreciate all the advice givin through Garth and the blog dawgs ). However looking at things like MF global and other investment scams makes me terrified to give money in exchange of a piece of paper which could the next day become worth less than the paper it’s printed on. This underlying concern (trust) has kept me out of the market. I believe that your time in politics has givin you different insight that many that come to your blog may not have or understand, I just hope that gov’t propaganda didn’t have the same effect.
For anow I’ll keep doing nothing with the little money I have, it may not be the best option to those in the know, but at least I know where it is.
Keep writing Garth! I always enjoy and value your opinion. Come back to Red Deer!!
Mr Lahey. So excited! the pine needles are soaking as we speak!
Just more meaningless paper games and now the gold and silver ETF and short seller manipulator chickens are coming home to roost. Guess what is about to hit the fan?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rehypotecation-unwind-begins-hsbc-sues-mf-global-over-disputed-ownership-physical-gold
Alistair # 125,
“Am I to take away from this that Garth is comparing goldbugs to the hateful nutters in that picture? Even in jest, that crosses some sort of line. I’m not PC by any stretch, but there are plenty of ways of ridiculing those you disagree with without comparing them to the trash in that picture. You’re actually pretty good at the ridicule thing, and I’ve enjoyed many a laugh at the expense of others on this “pathtic blog” of yours. But holy crap, I wouldn’t compare my worst enemy to those losers, and certainly not with imagery.”
Garth, you mentioned something about being respectful?
take care,
Blacksheep
Discussion today in a meeting, coworker owns 4 condos that have apparently dropped in value, not one of the 7 people in the room disagreed, but the question remained, “Is he going to get hosed?” well the condos are rented, and if he plans to keep them as revenue forever, fine. But the discussion turned from well, its not that he will lose money, but he missed the boat by not selling, so will not reap the real benafit of Real Estate. Capital Growth.
I am spreading the word, coworkers are asking “Wow prices have dropped, should I buy a second house as an investment?”
I am not sure what to tell them, as I am in the same boat. Prices here in Victoria, are dropping about 7000-10,000 a month, with no end in sight. A very nice listing with a suite, started at 525, just sold for $400,000 that is what I call a haircut.
2 years ago, talking about a correction got you banned from society, now its the major concern.
Not a day goes by where I don’t hear a story of someone trying to sell, and going nowhere, every single listing has been reduced, 2 3 4 times. Its already started, and the perfect storm is upon us… 2012 will be a very interesting year…
Stay out of Riverdale!
Interesting writeup from Alexa on Garth’s primary readership:
Audience Snapshot
Top Search Queries for Greaterfool.ca
Based on internet averages, greaterfool.ca is visited more frequently by users who are over 65 years old, have children, have no college education and browse this site from school.
———
Sounds like most of the users are old hobos sneaking into school libraries to post comments.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I think I left my sack o’ wine out on the sidewalk next to my walker.
Where are my crayons? — Garth
You probably used them up drawing horns on Peter Schiff and Ron Paul.
That’s OK. I learn better with hand puppets anyway.
Back page from the Vancouver Sun (rain): (Must be true cause it’s in the news paper… describes how to make a sheeple)
The best investment you can make.
At dinner parties across the Lower Mainland there is no more popular comment than, “Purchasing a home was the best investment we’ve ever made.” With interest rates historically low, a strong economy, and high demand for housing in our region, purchasing a home in Greater Vancouver is still one of the best decisions you’ll ever make. Visit a Polygon sales office this weekend and consider an investment in your future.
sam.i.am
SC investment proposition makes sense when using 30 fixed rate financing – yes you are right – skinny yield after the expenses – I get a conservative 6-7% cap rate if I factor every expense in the book. But this is a much more conservative property – true passive investing. The mortgage gets paid off over time by the tenants. If you are interested in higher returns I think Phoenix is the way to go.
that Raza real estate guy seems like an honest man.
#121 Mr. Lahey,
perhaps Carney can catch a flight on Peter Mackay’s personal helicoptor, as he’s flying home to be with family at Christmas.. Better yet, can you extend an invite to Peter? It would be good to have a cabinet minister there, and another body for the dunk tank? or would you have a better plan for him?
#144 Young Old Fart
When did I say it was a sin?..you guys made that up ! It’s your fault you don’t understand the sarcasm.hahahahahahahah
Rosenberg today … the issue is solvency.
….possible Greek exit? How about the fact that 40 billion euros of deposits have fled the country’s banking system in just the past year. This is equal to 17% of GDP! More than 30% of that outflow took place in September and October alone. This remains a powder keg situation and what is clear to us is that the Euro area is not at all close to resolving its problem of excessive debts, insufficient growth and competitiveness (Germany aside), glaring country-by-country current account- savings imbalances and an ever-growing lack of confidence. As we saw with Lehman, once entities reliant on wholesale capital markets for their funding lose confidence among the investment community, a liquidity crisis can morph into a solvency crisis and do so very quickly. This all promises to come to a head sometime in the first quarter of the new year, in my opinion.
I noticed that Disciple hasn’t been around lately. Would you guys like me to weigh in? I don’t want to steal the spotlight.
O , I just remembered, he’s probably on his way to Sunnyvale. ( note to self: start researching interesting gold and silver facts..thank god for google !)
@181 God: why did you let Moses break a piece from the second tablet with the 11th commandment that said “Ye shalt not get caught with the above”? Now we have it all wrong, but at least thanks for sending us the Smoking Man who knows the real truth and guides us all.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-top-was-easy-to-see-2011-12-14
http://www.forbes.com/pictures/mef45ejmi/the-worlds-happiest-and-saddest-countries-2/
25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877339,00.html #ixzz1gXO7F03R
I’ve had a gentleman telling me that gold is going to $5000/oz, so I’d better get in on the action or get left behind.
Of course this was back in 2008.
There are always excuses with the metalheads. Paper vs physical, market manipulation, short positions in the silver market, etc etc. But only they, the true believers, truly know what’s going on.
Classic behavior. The person who openly tells you he is the smartest in the room is often the least well informed.
Everyone want to feel special. This is why people tell you they can communicate with the dead. They have special and unique abilities. Just like the gold and silver bugs of the world.
“We’re right about this. Just wait and see.”
If you pick one truth and follow it blindly it will become a falsehood, and you a fanatic.
#184 Ammo and Viagara
#121 Mr. Lahey,
“perhaps Carney can catch a flight on Peter Mackay’s personal helicoptor, as he’s flying home to be with family at Christmas.. Better yet, can you extend an invite to Peter? It would be good to have a cabinet minister there, and another body for the dunk tank? or would you have a better plan for him?”
All wonderful suggestions Ammo but alas time is running out for last minute additions. We are a mere couple of days away from the FASTPGFBDCParty and time doesn’t allow for these changes. We will note it for next year’s party which by the way will be acronymized as SASTPGFBDCParty (second annual for the minimally alert bloggers). A great brunch was had with the bearded oracle who is raging a battle against all the gold lovers on this blog today. Ron Paul is ecstatic that so many bloggers love gold so the crowd is going to be a mixed bag and may suffer from cognitive dissonance when the mystic sage that runs this blog debates Ronnie on Saturday. Anyhoots all is going well in the park and blog dogs are piling in. RSVPs are still being accepted but please get your tickets pronto as time is running out. It is a real gas to see the bearded one responding to all of you. Ricky and Bubbles are pestering him with questions as he types his responses and Steve French is purring on the rug. He has turned down Ricky’s weed offer stating that he must be totally lucid when answering all of your comments. He has also showed us all the deletions and some of the language is rough even by Sunnyvale standards. Gotta go, the bearded sagacious one has asked me to run to the corner store for some supplies. See everyone on Saturday!
Hi Nastra, Here’s some new stuff mankind really needs more of?? “Unlike conventional munitions, the innovative materials approach integrates the casing with warhead explosives for increased lethality.”
http://www.asminternational.org/portal/site/www/NewsItem/?vgnextoid=5747d52c3f914310VgnVCM100000621e010aRCRD
I wonder if the inventors ever wonder or even care if the stuff they make will be used on there own family members some time in the future?
re: egg. this happens. but i think the alarmism both pro and con are unduly panicking the uninformed and helping to get them whipsawed. note what happened last time egg got laid. none of things that got us all here have been addressed and are actually worse. more of this the same leads will lead to more of that the same. eventually, the road will end and the rabid contingent will turn out to be more right than wrong. their problem is that once they’ve convinced themselves to buy PMs, it gets their timing all messed up and they think we’re going run out of road just because they’ve bought.
Garth,
See what you started today with your commentary on PM in general and gold in particular…?
Sigh, the nuts are out in force today…
…I hope the bunker has concertina wire encircling the Amazons….
Back to real estate tomorrow please. Thanks!
@ #184 Blacksheep, I believe I expressed my objections quite respectfully, and also accepted Garth’s pointed rebuttals in good humour. (Indeed, I’d have been disappointed had he held his fire.)
You, on the other hand, are like the guy who blows the whistle on me in the express checkout lane at the grocery store for having 9 items in my basket instead of 8.
My second favorite guy next to you… ;) I don’t usually defend the ‘bugs’ and sometimes think you post about gold to up your comment count… haha…
Interestingly he’s (and everyone else it seems) is chatting about gold
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/dear-nouriel-roubini-fundamental-case.html
The Muskoka “auction” was pretty much a flop.
http://tinyurl.com/6w4htj5
I understand the whole inflation and gold monetary standards concept. I just don’t undertand the gold bugs. I don’t know who is worse: a house horny person or a gold bug. It’s amazing how the same person who sees a housing bubble cannot see a gold bubble.
The fiat system, regardless of its shortcomings, is here to stay (at least in this lifetime). The US$ will remain the world’s ‘dominant’ reserve currency (at least in this lifetime). Just think of the chaos that will have to precede the demise of the two. I, for one, am against the return to the gold standard simply for the fact that only a very select few control the gold reserves. I’d rather have a government print money – at least I have a greater influence on who controls the government compared to who controls the gold.
I am not as bullish as Garth on the equity market. I think it will correct, just like the real estate market – only sooner and not because of fundamentals. I also think it will recover faster than the real estate market – because the fundamentals always win in the end.
I like Ron Paul, though. He is a nice guy and I truly believe he means well.
greedy bastards extraction segment
http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/12/14/americas-tax-code-a-rigged-system-written-by-a-bought-government-that-you-get-to-pay-for/
Justin Trudeau just stood up in HOC and called Min Peter Kent a “piece of sh*t”
He is correct.
Even though I belonged to a different party, the young Trudeau sent his support for me when I stood up against my powerful Minister/MP.
I will never forget this. I promised him if he ran for leadership, I’d drop everything to help.
Young, brash and angry just might turn this country back on course.
Update: Gold lays an egg.
ok, at least now we have confirmation that Garth does all this for only one reason: amusement
He knows he gets a certain portion of his readers riled up with the Gold bashing, but he keeps doing it. Of course, the proof in this is that he cleverly excludes the fact that Oil also lays an egg today (down 5%). Natural gas too (down 4%).
But he specifically pointed out Gold’s bad day to poke the hornet’s nest. Like a teenager would.
What was the post about? — Garth
””’There is not one single fundamental negative for gold right now, not one…except perhaps for bankster manipulation…so they can buy every ounce, and every gold company share from the panic liquidators””’ —
so far best comment. i am not a metalhead but enjoy the comments. as you have always said Garth: ” when people run screaming that is the exact moment when you should be rushing to buy.”” – i am considering some long positions on gold now.
Where do you hear screams? — Garth
I knew as soon as I read the latest Garth article that the gold bugs would be crawling from under their rugs and be on the attack. Bait them and they will come…Very entertaining though.I hope Garth is in the mood a year from now to dig up some of the ultra-pro gold comments being posted now,so we can see how wrong they all were. Especially the ones that predict gold going to 2,000 in 2012. Now, that’s FUN!
And then there’s good old Smoking Man..What makes him think he’s all that original in founding a religion based around the big “V”?Hey Man,that’s every real mans idea of religion! Don’t you think all of those poor married guys sitting in church ,dragged there by their wives,don’t have fantasies just like what you’re proposing? Which is why if you do find such a religion you’ll be very successful. “All hail Smoking Man!” Go for it,Man!
google … mortgage burning party . They are still happening . A rare party that’s for sure . We would have had one a decade ago but all we would have done is piss off everyone we knew . I even know some with both a mortgage and bullion . You don’t have to be nuts to be a goldbug but I observe that it helps .
This mad as hell guy should be on cbc panel rather than those betting on luxemborg tax havens. It is about time someone called a turd a turd.
http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/08/10/im-mad-as-hell-how-about-you/
… a predictable (sold my last PM investment Monday morning after liquidating all my bullion positions over the past week) speed bump Garth… but enjoy your little gloat… careful with those rose coloured glasses though!
QE3 is coming (at the latest in March)… how about a little $10K portfolio bet over the next six months?
“And this pathetic blog advised the metalheads to take their profits when the yellow stuff was motoring towards $1,900 an ounce. ”
Yeah Garth, you’ve been advising to take profits on the stuff since about the $1200 mark over the past couple of years as well genius.
Shoulda done it. — Garth
#197 Disciple’s Replacement
“I noticed that Disciple hasn’t been around lately. .
O , I just remembered, he’s probably on his way to Sunnyvale.”
You are correct Disciple’s Replacement. Disciple just checked into his trailer and is having a drink with Julian as I type. Bubbles is having him over for dinner in his shed with all his cats. Then an early evening according to Disciple as he wants to work on the speech he is delivering to all the blog dogs this weekend.
#198 gladiator
No problem..I certainly broke the mold after smoking man was created..who knew that little guy would become a prophet pour moi..o yeah ..I did..of course I did !
Interesting piece on Muskoka auction falling flat – buyers pi$$ed off since they were told later they didn’t meet the developer’s reserve price:
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1101502–muskoka-lake-condos-up-for-sale-again?bn=1
#197 Disciple’s Replacement
“note to self: start researching interesting gold and silver facts..thank god for google !)”
———————————————–
You’re welcome !
#201 Mr. Lahey
Are you sure Mr. L?..it’s only Wednesday and I know for certain that Peter Mackay has no social life after Belinda(BS) dumped his sorry ass. But I understand if it’s too much, you are the “host with the most”.
2nd the call on back to RE. sounding the alarm there is fully justified and this is a great service. sounding the alarm on gold isn’t, imo. – bubble? how many people actually own all that much? plus, they should be very suspicious of their crony govt anyway. what a mess the boc and cmhc have got everyone into … and after the neighbors having just done it in plain view. double-checked gartmans record – actually makes an ok contrary indicator.
Oh yeah, forgot. Last week in a television interview with Peter Schiff, Gartman said he was long gold again. What a flip-flopping twat.
Called it right today, no? — Garth
Alistair # 205,
Garth cropped my first post today (#125)
based on his request that, I “be respectful” (#148)
Your comment shines a light on Garth’s
entertaining but sometimes brash writing style
(often at someone else’s expense).
I know, I know, It’s Garth’s blog and I don’t need to read it or post.
What keeps me coming backs is the wealth of knowledge the dogs provide.
Garth’s good too sometimes, when he’s not pump’in “the System”
I reposted your comment, in 100% support of your view.
For the record, this is the disrespectful comment Garth clipped this morning.
“PS: Look back in your archives, you suggested I/we dump gold @ $900 because it’s in a bubble.”
take care,
Blacksheep
#202GregW, Oakville on 12.14.11 at 3:27 pm
…the innovative materials approach integrates the casing with warhead explosives for increased lethality.”
Lethality? Who makes up words like that? Why not use ‘kill factor’ since it’s a better descriptor of what the device is supposed to achieve?
As I said before and will say again, why weren’t the gold bugs buying like crazy back in 1999 when it was cheap?
It wasn’t rutting season. — Garth
GTA Girl,
Sweet Christ… not another Trudeau! Didn’t the first one do ENOUGH damage?
We just have to stop letting women vote…
When is an auction not won by the highest bidder…mentioned here about a month ago:
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1101502–muskoka-lake-condos-up-for-sale-again?bn=1
Garth, the DOW has touched the 200 day MA this week too. No mention of that from you though eh? Talk about selective commentary.
I wrote about gold. Deal with it. — Garth
Haarper’s opposition to gay marriage is a smoke screen.
It’s to make you think he’s a conservative, he’s not. Remember Canada’s Economic Action Plan? Debt and Death.
#117 ScottyD… The gas giants Jupiter and Saturn are actually failed stars. The Earth was ejected from one of these as was Mars and most recently Venus.
#73 Sea Wave… this has already happened in Earth’s past… that’s the real reason for the value placed in GO(L)D.
#221 GTA Bobby on 12.14.11 at 4:49 pm
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Thanks for the update. From your link:
“…They came in with the mistaken impression that this was a fire sale. It was not. Evanco is not distressed.
“There were deals in that room. But if you wanted a steal, forget it.””
“teaser” rate franc loan at 6% compared the the forint 13% was once good competition is now called “debt slavery”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-13/austrian-banks-facing-payback-as-hungary-s-debt-slaves-revolt.html
#228 westernman
the Trudeau Liberals are back ! be very afraid westernman……….all of your ideology is threatened…………!
I don’t know about income, as most companies involved in the precious metals industry pay no dividends, and those that do pay very little. Industry in general seems to be geared towards speculators.
There is a metals & miners income fund that pays a good distribution, but I do not know how it works, so I don’t know if that’s just a bull trade or an income play.
#223 Ammo and Viagara
“Are you sure Mr. L?..it’s only Wednesday and I know for certain that Peter Mackay has no social life after Belinda(BS) dumped his sorry ass. But I understand if it’s too much, you are the “host with the most.”
Yes it is too much Ammo although it has been noted as I mentioned in my previous post. It has been quite the chore to organize and get all the misfits in the park ready and on their best behaviour for the FASTPGFBDCParty. We are getting ready for dinner now and I am going to walk over to the mess hall with the bearded oracle who has been wrestling with all the gold bugs today. He says he is exhausted and looking forward to a good ol east coast lobster fest. We had to explain to Ricky that a “gold bug” is not literally a gold bug. Poor Ricky can’t grasp what all the hoopla over gold is today on the blog. Ron Paul spent all afternoon trying to explain the gold standard to Ricky but alas I don’t think poor Ricky gets it. The only fiat Ricky knows is the one he stole out of the local supermarket parking lot last year. To quote Ricky, “why don’t they stop arguing over gold and get their butts over to Sunnyvale for the big bash this weekend”. Garth has his blackberry with him so he will be answering your posts from the mess hall. He is letting us read his responses before he posts. We are having a grand ol time in Sunnyvale. See all you blog dogs this weekend!
Fast take from Seattle vis-avis Vancouver, Real Estate.
Pro has been selling in Puget Sound area for 40 years and he told me today, that a huge correction is in the cards for Vancouver.
He had been bird dogging for some investors and was horrified at what he uncovered.
He said that Condos, in particular, are going to head into free fall – just as fuel costs and service costs soar – and pay checks shrink.
I asked for an adjective to describe Vancouver RE : “Delusional”.
As Charlie Brown would say “agggghhhhh”.
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Tripping the light fantastic for the past coupla days, then I come back to earth from the next worlds and see #17 Smoking Man — “. . . listen to Pink Floyd, Cohen, and Lead belly . . .” — Seen Rick Wright’s swansong? The original note was played on wine glasses, then Wright comes in! He finished his physical lifecycle and moved back into the other worlds shortly after this concert was filmed.
#202 GregW, Oakville — “I wonder if the inventors ever wonder or even care if the stuff they make will be used on there own family members some time in the future?” — G’day Greg. Highly doubt it. These are the brain dead dumbkops (thickheads) who can’t see beyond the end of their noses. Good link. Cheers!
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Divine wealth? Gold – Silver. What’s the diff? Colors and price, yes. They’re still metal, ‘tho.
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Banxters conquer nations by force, so they will be conquered the same way and this is likely a first step — 11:25 clip; JPM, MF Global and Italian bonds Menage a trois; Greece looks to hire Blackwater;
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CFR and the US empire; Methane Gas This could make CC a whole lot more interesting; Nevada Gluggle seems to have caught something on camera, and it’s not a whorehouse; Unmanned Border “So when an Israeli in a sombrero carrying a tactical nuclear warhead to blow up an American city and frame Iran for it shows up, there is nothing anybody can do about it, right? But Americans still get their crotches groped at the airports.” wrh.com; Laughing The terrorists have won, without firing a shot. The WH and Pentagon are the only two terrorists in the world; The Warmonger Speaks Everyone can yawn.
??????
#229 X
A reserve auction?
As was this one, noted multiple times when someone first posted about it. With predictable results; no one met the reserve.
Carnivale…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtaNOn2rDTw
A mirage… Carnivale… Animals… Camouflage… Tarot cards… Cloaked men… Babylon… Temperance… Sepia… Umami… Firegold… Bezoomy… Ephphatha… Rabonai… Emperor… Selassie… Messiah… Dorogay… Destrier… Malakai… Sinister… Collocol… Minister… Jezebel… Scallywag… Shenanigan… Vellocet… Nepathean… Transient… Illuminati… Pyramids… In Gemini… Haruspex… Telepathy… Balderdash… Malarkey… Pollyklef… Cataract… Petrichor… Battle axe… Jackalope… Dolorous… Donnybrook… Wilderness… Sabotage… Jabbernowl… Gomorrah… A mirage…
Sometimes, it feels like I’m goin’ under,
And the rain and the thunder, in the jungle wonder,
Struggle, the battle, of all good and bad,
As rattlesnakes shake the grass, the storm sand,
Hear the sound of a different drum, its beats warm,
Under a militant sun, the seven seas torn,
A wounded warrior of a hope dies last,
For I am my future, my god and my past
Full lyrics…
http://tinyurl.com/876uqr8
Garth, your prophecy is coming to fruition! What a crazy week so far with the Stocks dropping and also dramatic drops in the price of Gold.
Also, from the bloggers comments, the correction to housing is happening now. Thank God I didn’t get sucked into buying at this peak!!!
You finally get just credit for your predictions! You are the Man!
A scary time ahead lies in store for us (Nationally and Globally)
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Banxters New Gold or desperation; Euro hits new low against the US$; Boris Johnson We were right about the Euro; Occupy China! “For the first time on record, the Chinese Communist party has lost all control, with the population of 20,000 in this southern fishing village now in open revolt.”; Leaving Should people leave before TSHTF? Where would they go? 4:36 clip Nigel Farage nails it — Europrison (and NAmerica prison); 10:17 clip Banxters behind criminal govts.; Plan B for Breakup Breaking up is hard to do (but not impossible); Walmart Good for murder; 10:59 clip Info. on the banking system; Liquidity Injection Better than heroin.
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Alabama Poor cut off from water; Syria – Turkey Border violence increases; IPCC Isn’t it wonderful that they declare themselves free of the FOIA; Libya On verge of civil war and chaos. Good work, NATO – US – UN. How is Libya’s central bank working out for you? Plus Obomba Confrontation with R – C? Or has he bitten off more than he can chew? But Iraq is celebrating, and here is the man who orhestrated the invasion — 11:41 clip Just as Dick Cheney engineered the USAF to be missing on Sept. 11, so Richard Perle was the architect of the Iraq war; Lowe’s Boycott continues. They deserve it for the stunt they pulled; 4:54 clip GW is a phantom menace and costs way too much; Monsanto’s Agent Orange The new breakfast drink of choice; Western Elite Pretty much the same as Libya; Witch Hunt Same today as the 1600’s; 1:52 clip Seems Ron Paul is the only anti-war candidate.
#220 God on 12.14.11 at 4:47 pm
If you do exist I can’t wait for the day to give you a psc of my mind face to face…..
You gave me dyslexia, and afew other learning disabilities, hence keeped me from being normal. I learned deductive reasoning skills par none…..
It’s a crapy place to be….much better to be stupid clue less.. You live a much happier life.
Garth,
Can you write a piece regarding mortgage insurance and renewals with respect to age of borrower.
what if someone buys lots of house at age 50 taking out a new 30 year term and then takes out 5 year terms. what happens at age 65? can he get mortgage inusrance as he gets older? cost?
Tulips, dot-com stocks, real estate, and precious metal. Not so different. Not pretty when it all ends.
http://www.investinganswers.com/education/how-invest/anatomy-bubble-position-yourself-profit-next-one-pops-2009
I am sticking with gold for the reason that fiat currency is nothing more substantial than high resolution printing on paper or an arrangement of zeros and ones in computers. Hardy reassuring.
Gold and silver must be held for the long term, especially silver. The wild swings in the market for these commodities are caused by the speculative buyers and sellers of “paper gold” on the futures markets. The perturbations in price are not caused by those who buy physical gold, take delivery and then store with the intention of not selling for many years.
Gold has been used as a store of value and silver as a medium of exchange for 6,000 years. Countless fiat currencies have come and gone during that time. That trend isn’t about to change.
Gold and silver are owned because the political and economic decision-makering institutions are incapable of addressing the most important issues that face society. This became apparent when Garth’s commitment to democracy resulted in him being expelled from the political process.
Form Man @ #236
Hey lunkhead, at least I HAVE an ideology… unlike you who has a ” mind for rent to the government ” sign on your forehead.
#216 jess… great find! “the banking system is fully corrupt and defrauding us” – Dylan Ratigan…. exactly.
#186 Spaceman
My experience in Victoria doesn’t match your “perfect storm is upon us” comments. I use a private client services link for SFHs in Saanich and Oak Bay, where recent sale prices (and houses are selling) have been slightly reduced from asking prices or above asking prices. Let’s not exaggerate, eh?
Well garth,
i actually put a stop loss on barrack gold @ 54 1month ago and it actually made it. for a split instance . my sell order went thru. boy am i glad…now it around $44.
it like you said when everyone wants it and reasoning is out the window. then it’s time to get out. The phrase ” it ‘s different this time ” is alwAys a good indicator plus all the commercials and let’s not forget the CAN Mint themselves are willing to sell a grain or a brick.
you know when the Fed and al their economists are welling to sell then it’s definitely drop it now b/c they are the experts
i sold 3 stocks from may- nov and i bought 3 nov till now. some of the stocks are down 18-4 % but still better off than not selling at all. thank you govt meddling
thanks garth
In the 70’s, Gold went from to 35$/oz to 200$ from 1971 to 1975. Then it went down to 158$ before going to 850$ in 1980.
Can this correction just be history repeating itself?
@Blacksheep, my apologies for the cheapshot then. I misunderstood your motivation for reposting my comment. Thought you were referring to me as disrespectful. Obviously I was wrong. Cheers.
Garth said, in response to my post #228: It wasn’t rutting season.
Good answer! I never thought of it that way, and got a good laugh from that reply.
#195 God on 12.14.11 at 2:54 pm #144 Young Old Fart
When did I say it was a sin?..you guys made that up ! It’s your fault you don’t understand the sarcasm.hahahahahahahaha
TRY READING THE FIRST CHAPTER OF ROMANS IN THE NEW TESTAMENT! THERE ARE OTHERS BUT LET’S GO WITH THAT FOR NOW.
@sam.i.am
Creditors/sellers must accept payment denominated in dollars. A seller cannot *demand* payment in some other form
Again, you’re wrong. If you think you’re right, then cite the law. Show me where in the books it says that a seller must accept payment in dollars.
We live in a wonderfully free country, where buyers and sellers are free to come to whatever mutually agreeable terms they want, as long as the taxman gets his 13% (though he, incidentally, does insist on being paid in dollars).
Vlad, you posted: Alabama Poor cut off from water
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16037798
As I’ve maintained they are economically bombing 1st World countries back to the stone age, while 2nd and 3rd World get the WMD.
One by one they are falling. It’s easy! The headlines sell us on it: “We know he has WMD!”; “He’s killing his own people!!”
“They will throw flowers at our feet; their children will sing songs of praise”??