Tony’s a contractor, so you’d think he’d know a mess about houses. But he’s confused. “With all the financial issues and debt around the world, shouldn’t the Toronto housing market have had a correction by now?”
The latest headlines say no. Sales and prices up again. The average SFH in 416 is now $776,017, which is eight times the average income. Actually, it would take that family 11 years to pay for this if all of their take-home income ($70,708) was devoted to the purchase. This is a burden exactly 200% greater than in the US the year before that bubble burst. Meanwhile the pumpers and humpers at Re/Max are forecasting even higher sales and prices next year, plus ponies for everyone.
But all’s not exactly as it appears.
First, home sales are slowing for a third month, as deals in Vancouver wither and the brakes come in the GTA. Across the country transactions are running 5.6% ahead of last year, down sharply from 11% in October. In Toronto those sales shot up 18% in October, then fell to 11% last month while Vancouver saw a 6% decline from 2011.
Second, mortgage rates – at least the most popular kind – are about to increase, even though the Bank of Canada (as expected) left its key rate unchanged this week. Quietly, the big banks have been raising the cost of variable rate mortgages to the point where often just a quarter point separates VRMs from fixed-rate home loans.
Why? Because they’re banks. They exist to make money, and profits augment when people take fixed-rate terms. So by goosing VRMs borrowers are given more of an incentive to lock in, prior to the interest rate increases coming in 2012. (And forget this urban myth about interest rates decreasing. In your dreams.)
What this means: No more prime-minus-a-half ultra-cheap variable rate mortgages. Floating rate loans will be a quarter point more expensive in the coming months, just like fixed rates. Of course, a quarter point’s hardly worth getting undressed for, but you can bet it will be big news.
Third, rising house prices mean diddly when they’re supported 100% by rising debt. Little actual wealth is being created, and if values erode (it’s coming) the debt will not be reduced at the same time. This is like borrowing a hundred grand from Kneecap Eddy to buy Nortel or Bre-X stock.
In fact, over at Saskatoon Housing bubble, little Kev’s sperm count went up so much when he heard the Re/Max forecast that he thawed enough to send us this report:
- Total household debt has exploded by 135% between 2000 to 2010.
- Mortgage debt has exploded by 131% between 2000 to 2010.
- Consumer debt has exploded by 146% between 2000 to 2010.
- This is at a time when the average weekly wage increased by 30%.
See what I mean? House prices nationally have more than doubled in the last decade. Mortgage debt has more than tripled. Salaries and wages have trailed inflation. And yet rising real estate has created the illusion of wealth. Danger.
Anyway, back to Tony who is 39 living with his wife and three kids in his parents’ basement in the northern tundra of the GTA. “Sold my house in the spring (privately), am currently looking for a new house,” he explains. “Paying my parents $1200 per month and $300 for the storage of our stuff per month.” Tony tells me he makes a hundred grand a year, has $110,000 invested and $525,000 from the house sale sitting in a bank making 1.4%.
“House prices seem so insane. Everything we look at that’s half decent is $700,000,” he laments. “This week a house in the area listed at $540K, small bungalow, we were thinking about offering $520K. It sold for $631,000!”
“My questions are… Do you think the housing market in the GTA will be lower in the spring (I can’t stay with family forever? ), and what would be the most money you would recommend us borrowing from the bank given current market?”
Well, Tony, Re/Max claims Toronto houses will go up forever. Chief humper Mike Polzler says: “There’s nothing on the horizon in Canada that we see that would lead to a significant correction.” The CH insists we’re okay because “Canada didn’t go through the massive upward surge in prices that was the undoing of the housing market in the US.” But he’s forecasting the average price in Vancouver (SFH plus condos) will hit $800,000 next year.
That’s not massive? Van prices have basically doubled in six years. That’s almost as impressive as Polzler’s ability to suck and blow without launching.
Of course the market will correct, Tony. What season or month a house gets affordable is open for debate. It could tumble, or just melt. The longer you can wait, the better. With higher rates ahead, plus our Boomer time bomb, and an ocean of debt, this could be a long ride to the bottom.
Of course, you could always invest your $635,000. If you scored just 6% (in securities which keep your house money secure), you’d have $3,000 a month to spend leasing a place where daylight actually penetrates and your kids don’t need to explain the mould on their lunches.
Do that for two years, then ask me again. Then I’ll be in vultch mode. And irresistible.
159 comments ↓
first? hehehe
I must admit, brilliant move by the banks. Guess that sort of coordinated action is possible when there’s only a handful.
This Toronto condo realty sees the folly in condo prices, in their December market report:
http://tinyurl.com/7qrktv4
“Currently the downtown condo market frenzy is centred on pre-construction sales. While there are too many launches to count (every downtown parking lot has a sign), the most important factor is to track the `price gap’ between this market and the resale condo market. The resale market is at about $500-550 per sq.ft. The pre-construction market is $700 per sq.ft. and higher in premium projects. In buying, Investors are betting that in four years time, the resale market will rise to pre-construction price levels. When the price gap is below $100, investors are much more confident. However with the size of the current gap, we believe that some investors will start to pull back and there will be a number of new condo projects that will not be built. Pre -construction prices should begin to level off and in some projects might actually be reduced! Rental rates, which have moved higher by over a $100 a month this year cannot support these pre-construction prices unless rental rates move higher by another $250 per month over the next four years. Is this realistic?”
Read this article. Will explain some pressures on housing demand.
Excerpt:
The federal government has lost track of more than 40,000 failed refugee claimants ordered deported from Canada up to 15 years ago, and who may still be wandering the streets illegally.
Similarly, at any given time, there are about 300,000 foreign workers, students and visitors in the country on temporary visas, but the government has no accurate way of knowing how many are here illegally after their permits expired.
In both cases, the problem is the same: Canada has no exit monitoring at the border.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/12/06/weston-border-deal-exit.html
Population growth in Vancity and T.O. drive housing. Yes, about 500,000 people per year come to Canada and mostly to Vancouver and Toronto (280,000 permanent residents, + 220,000 temporary immigrants who never leave). The government assumes the temps leave when the visa expires. Right! So more are let in the following year.
Yes, I cannot tell you how many failed refugee claimants there are in my hood, driving up the damn prices. — Garth
Blog dog Carney…no guts no glory buddy. Raise, now.
p.s. for “Mr Lahey” don’t forget the saying: A Sh_t Leopard never changes his spots Randy.
For people like unius who rely in stats, consider this:
The recent census is flawed. McMansion landlords wouldn’t report to census staff that they had more than one basement suite (because illegal). So only 2 dwellings per household were counted even though in reality there are 3-4. So huge underestimation of population. that’s why you don’t see it reflected in offical numbers.
Yes 1st
If you have the time to watch this, it is very very interesting. It’s an interview with Kyle Bass, the man that predicted the Sub Prime debt crisis in the US.
The debt situation does not look good at all….
Now, of course, this could bore the %$#@ out of you too, but I found it interesting!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw
“And forget this urban myth about interest rates decreasing. In your dreams.”
Garth, what makes you so sure that interest rates will go up in 2012? If it doesn’t, you’ll lose some credibility.
I’ll live. — Garth
Want to know what’s partially feeding speculators? Let’s do a little math.
ON will represent Ontario percentage
CAN will represent Canadian Total
Source: http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/tools/OI_RESEARCH_STATS.html
—Permanent Residents
In 2010, Canada admitted a record 280,636 permanent resident immigrants. Of these, Ontario received 118,116 permanent resident immigrants, who accounted for 42.1% of the total admissions to Canada in 2010.
Therefore: 118,116 divided by 4 (yearly quarter) = 29,529 or is equal to 10.5%ON of 280,636CAN
—Temporary Residents
In 2008, the number of temporary residents in Ontario was 240,264, 40.8% of all temporary residents in Canada.
For a more accurate number, we shall use 2010 total temporary residence (383,929CAN)
40.8% of 383,929 = 153,571.6ON (Estimated)
Therefore: 153,571.6 divided by 4 (yearly quarter) = 38,392.9 or is equal to 60%ON of 383,929CAN
Next…
Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/data-release/2011-Q1/i…
2011 Q1 Immigration Stats (3 months)
Total Permanent Residents into Canada 49,465 (10.5%ON of 49,465 = 5193.82/3 months = 1,731.27)
Total Temporary Residents into Canada 96,316 (10%ON of 96,316 = 9631.6/3 months = 3,210.53)
Total for Ontario (1,731.27 + 3,210.53) = 4,941.8 immigrants.
So..
We can estimate (crudely) that Ontario receives 4,941.8 permanent + temporary immigrants per month. How much of this figure factors into rent and home purchases? Who knows. But the one factor we can all agree on is that they all need to sleep somewhere.
BTW–As Mr. Kenny tells Canadians that the number of permanent residence is being reduced, he forgets to mention that temporary workers and foreign student entries are at record levels. http://i42.tinypic.com/2i7s803.png
More immigrants, more renters, more speculators.
This is a burden exactly 200% greater than in the US
Do you not see the fallacy in comparing a small region like the 416 to an entire country, especially one as large and diverse as the US? *rolls eyes* What is the ratio of income to house prices in Manhattan?
Here in Lotus land:
B.C. residents have highest debt but we’re paying it off faster
But that’s ok, because we’re paying it off faster (whatever that means).
Big shocker there. (<= this is my sarcasm face) Unlike in the US, where refinancing is easy and rampant, a little harder in Canada. Lines of credit are more common, so only looking at mortgage debt load and comparing to US was never fair to begin with. Canadian easily outdo their Yankee cousins at owing money.
But a line of credit is not the same as a mortgage. Lots of people will soon learn the difference.
Yes you’re first, the first to be an IDIOT. How do people not get tired of this? What are you, 8?
“little Kev’s sperm count went up so much when he heard the Re/Max forecast that he thawed enough to send us this report:”
Hilarious stuff!
For those wondering, this is how total household debt has changed over the years. Numbers from Stats Canada.
1971- $28 billion
1980- $135 billion
1990- $344 billion
2000- $641 billion
2010- $1.45 billion
Here it is in graph form.
http://tinyurl.com/82pcrmg
#5 TurnerNation
“p.s. for “Mr Lahey” don’t forget the saying: A Sh_t Leopard never changes his spots Randy.”
Why thank you for reminding me of that saying TurnerNation. Seems in the hustle and bustle of preparing for this first annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Greater Fool Blog Dog Xmas Party, I have forgotten one of my favourite admonitions to Randy. Looking forward to seeing you at the party!
Not First today….but 1st and always 1st to kick ‘grantmi’
butt ass……yeah!!!!
The Belief System
Our belief system is the most valuable commodity to the ruling elite. They have spent fortunes studying and learning how to control it and how to own it.
Everybody Knows Canadian Real estate is a good investment.
In Ontario they start out at age 4, all day JK, the kids have brand new hard drives that need to be programmed from the get go, so the offspring of the shadow rulers can maintain their prized position in the hierarchy their dad’s built. They maintain their position by controlling the information the tax farm slaves are feed day in day out.
But this generation of elite offspring are so stupid, beyond belief stupid.
Marie Antoinette was a lot like them, her head landed in a bucket slightly after the printing press was invented. If fact every major revolution happened after the creation of information inventions and the momentary loss of info control of those in power.
Today for a while we have the free web, elite have print, radio, and tv. And we can constantly watch BS get exposed when we can hit credible sources of alternative info with a click and compare pitches.
Today 20 something’s biggest enemy is BIG OIL (thanks teachers) They are oblivious to the last 30 years, your purchasing power vs labour output has gone in the toilet, but fear not no matter what anyone tells you (Like standing shoulder to shoulder the entire human race could fit in LA, Scale that to the size of the planet no f-en way man can affect the temp of the earth. But they drink the cool aid) It’s a magician distraction.
David Suzuki said North pole melted and Santa moved.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bm3uHduu2s&feature=player_embedded
Can you believe Suzuki, give him money and he will find Santa a new home. Wow
But they own and control your Belief System. So go hug a tree and feel good about yourself.
What mesmerizes me the most these days is the GOP race, Rom vs Ging , Ging vs Perry who will it be?
Ron Paul who……you say.? Even in the CND press…
Ron Paul is killing it in the polls, his economics are insane to say the leased, they will destroy the US economy if he wins, and crush the hierarchy in the process.
Now we have the perfect storm brewing. Nobody takes into account the herd mentality
But because MSM can not come clean with building 7 they have no credibility with 75% of the population that gets info on line.
Couple that with what MSM will unleash on Paul after he wins a few polls, They will Exposed and sell to high heaven the ridiculousness of his economics and will convince Americans on food stamps and in hard times that if you vote for this guy everyone will go down…
And the hard done by will ponder that for a moment and there are lots of them, “hell ya” Take’em all Down, The semi Smart ones will think it’s a MSM conspiracy and vote for Paul cause he is very different and the same does not work anymore.
It’s going to happen, CIA, MOSSAD, CSIS 10k a day I’ll be your brains, till then I’m on the other team looking to chop down a cherry tree……….But you better hurry my lack of Vitamin B12 is making me go insane………
Newbie here. What kind of investment will give me 6% in this market. Is there a website I can go to assess this.
You’re on it. — Garth
BEEEEE PEEEEEEEE Where are youuuuuuuuuu BPOE?
Come on you little Watermelon Head! Stop sulking and take it like a Manboy!
Your next challenge involves Japanese Origami that will fit in your…., honey, chili paste, a razor, a blindfold made from raw bacon, a hungry Rottweiler, enough pate’ to cover your ‘nether regions”, a banjo, vanilla pudding, jingle bells and a one way train ticket to Kakabeka Falls Ontario( sorry folks but he has to live SOME WHERE).
I want photos of you naked in front of the Falls BPOE you little Christmas cherub……….
Hugs and Kisses
Garth, please excuse me from straying from real estate.
Smoking Man, you are right Ron Paul is a force to contend with. No matter your political slant or beliefs one has to admire his sincerity and candor. I recommend all readers check out his videos on youtube.
Elmer, you are a massive grump, can’t you just go away and go scrooge something?
What this means: No more prime-minus-a-half ultra-cheap variable rate mortgages. Floating rate loans will be a quarter point more expensive in the coming months, just like fixed rates.
Garth, do you think that folks will still be able to get “special deals” by going through mortgage brokers or will those guys have to abide with these types of bank-imposed potential increases?
#185 Trev16
“Ron Paul is the only candidate that stands for something different than all of the other candidates…”
Now Trev I know Ron Paul is an American and a lover of the gold standard but the first annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Greater Fool Blog Dog Christmas Party could use another speaker. I am getting Randy to contact him to see if he will have some time to get away from his campaign and venture north to Sunnyvale for the blog dog xmas party. Surely he will have some down time during the holidays. If he accepts we may have him debate the bearded one on the gold standard versus fiat currency. Then when the debate is over we will all hop into the Clydesdale drawn sleighs commandeered by Form Man and Westernman and head into the Nova Scotian forests. This party is shaping up to be one for the ages!
#17 Smoking Man
“But you better hurry my lack of Vitamin B12 is making me go insane.”
Now hang in there Smoking Man. We need you at your best when you deliver your address to the blog dogs and the misfits of Sunnyvale during the first annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Greater Fool Blog Dog Christmas Party.
Mortgage debt has more than tripled.
How’s a 131% increase more than triple?
Aggregate mortgage debt has risen from $300 billion to over $1.1 trillion. — Garth
Perhaps Tony should move to Victoria. I see they are now throwing in a new car if you buy a condo.
I drive down the same street to take the kids to school. Two SFH have sat for sale both a long time and no sold signs on either. Just saw one new price. Now both are off the market.
I thought real estate always goes up. Didn’t a realtor tell me that?
Devore: But a line of credit is not the same as a mortgage. Lots of people will soon learn the difference.
pretty funny
Down under on the flipside, interest rates were bumped lower by 25 basis points and the Australian Media immediately began inferring that those greedy banks, the big 4, wouldn’t pass on the interest rates and save Christmas.
It’s nice to know that the average person in Australia really has a grip on what really matters.
This blog gets better and better. Thank you for being a voice of reason in an insane real estate world.
#22 Victor
They’re market imposed, not bank imposed. Banks are finding it more expensive to borrow money, so they have to reduce the discount. Mortgage brokers are just resellers for “banks” (well, mortgage lenders), they have no pricing power in the market.
“Newbie here. What kind of investment will give me 6% in this market. Is there a website I can go to assess this.”
Until recently a term deposit in Australia. I say recently, the Reserve Bank chopped rates this week as a pretty blatant and unsubtle pre-christmas stimulus measure because the government is broke and on a crazy impossible mission to attain government surplus.
Far be it from me to be a real estate pusher BUT the market here in Toronto is still very robust. NO slowdown..Just look at Guava.ca… prices up and inventory is near record lows. NO reversal in sight.
The only way it will slow and then reverse is a sizable increase in interest rates and I do mean sizable. A half a percent here and there when you are near or at record lows makes little difference.
Are people in huge debt… HELL YA… Will banks raise rates … HELL YA…. why… dude they are banks … come on … just obvious. Will prices go up forever… nope … but until those rates go up ALOT 3-4 % then I don’t see an end in sight.. Even during the notorious Super Recession of late 2008/09 houses did sell and alot sold very quickly. To see price reductions you need higher rates and a significant increases in unemployment and the associated bad economy.
Want a snapshot of the economy… go to a walmart or costco… Packed and busy …. wait till boxing day .
I can see prices going up for many years to come and the lower priced areas will jump alot quicker than the already super high priced areas.
Does anybody know how was Muskoka condo hotel auction? It was held on Dec. 4. Still there is no report about it.
Invest in securities that keep the house money safe. Could you elaborate a little more Garth because we would not mind making more interest over the coming 2 or 3 years but are risk intolerant to say the least.
I did not say “interest.” — Garth
These are comments I get daily as my insights have made many many people filthy rich over the last decade. Any renters out there lamenting not buying in 2000? I thought so
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CrowdedElevatorfartz on 12.06.11 at 11:00 pm
BEEEEE PEEEEEEEE Where are youuuuuuuuuu BPOE?
Come on you little Watermelon Head! Stop sulking and take it like a Manboy!
Your next challenge involves Japanese Origami that will fit in your…., honey, chili paste, a razor, a blindfold made from raw bacon, a hungry Rottweiler, enough pate’ to cover your ‘nether regions”, a banjo, vanilla pudding, jingle bells and a one way train ticket to Kakabeka Falls Ontario( sorry folks but he has to live SOME WHERE).
I want photos of you naked in front of the Falls BPOE you little Christmas cherub……….
Hugs and Kisses
.
Video on the housing situation in the U.S. 2013 expected to be the worst for foreclosures in history.
http://goldsilver.com/video/home-prices-will-continue-to-plunge-and-2013-will-be-the-worst-year-for-foreclosures-in-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoldSilver+-+12++6++2011&utm_content=GoldSilver+-+12++6++2011+Preview+CID_8522d863aae9e399fee260cbdb51e7f9&utm_source=GoldSilver+Email+Marketing&utm_term=2013+The+Worst+Year+For+Foreclosures+In+History&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoldSilver+-+12++6++2011&utm_content=GoldSilver+-+12++6++2011+CID_8522d863aae9e399fee260cbdb51e7f9&utm_source=GoldSilver+Email+Marketing&utm_term=2013+The+Worst+Year+For+Foreclosures+In+History+-+Video
Yes, I cannot tell you how many failed refugee claimants there are in my hood, driving up the damn prices. — Garth
Hmmm, I detect a flavour of sarcasm.
Well I know when my family of 6 came here to Canada as refugees the first thing we did with our $5 was invest it in real estate.
Tiffany’s. Why? Cause there’s endless cash in BPOE. The only people with debt in Vancouver are Canadians. Our superstar investors have no such issues
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Tiffany’s isn’t alone in its recognition of Vancouver’s luxury market potential. Exclusive brands such as Ferrari Maserati, Rolls-Royce, Louis Vuitton, Gucci and Hermes have all come to town in recent years, taking advantage of what one retail consultant called “a pocket of very high-end consumers [here] that is disproportionate to any other markets.”
Interesting story from Detroit
A 4-bedroom (not bad looking) house that Diana Ross used to live in. Picked up for less than $4,000 and now re-sold for $96K!
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/mother-six-trades-98k-house-used-minivan-152424777.html
When I read this post I had the same thought as Elmer about comparing Toronto ratio of price/income to that of the US. I also thought specifically what New York Ratio would be. I think avg salaries in NY are not that high. I wonder how useful the ratio of avg income to house prices really is, as there are significant portions of the population who might have bought houses 20 yrs ago and are still living in them today and these people might earn less then avg income but happen to live in houses that have appreciated greatly, but have no desire to move. As an example, my mom in Edm, who is 88 , lives in a house that is probably now worth $400,000, and her income is $26,000 per yr, this probably applies to many retirees, maybe most people buying these houses are move up buyers, who have equity in their homes already, and people getting in at the bottom may have higher salaries then the avg. Also, a lot of immigrants buy large homes as grandparents live with parents and kids and grandkids, and multiple salaries are contributing to costs. Just seems to me these stats are misleading.
Tony take Garth’s advice! That’s it!
You’ll go down in history as the smartest egg in the basket!
I wish this was true, but unfortunatelly:
-I do not believe in Canadians changing their life, gratification and debt ways, do you?
-I do not believe in Federal Conservant(ive)s unpreserving their well preserved ways, entitlements and privileges, hocus-pocus modus-operandi, do you?
I suggest you brace for (in this order): higher house prices, higher inflation, food, gas, rent, higher interest rates, higher unemployment, higher taxes. Success to all that will survive this decade.
David Madani – Capital Economics
Canada Housing Bubble – CBC’s On the Coast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waazJBJqy3A
Yeah, what aboutbbuilding 7?
LINK REMOVED AND THIS POSTER IS NOW BANNED. — Garth
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Like I said earlier: That $800,000 house in T.O. will soon be selling for $2 Million, and then some, regardless of the economy or how much debt people have to borrow.
When will Garth learn that home prices in T.O. only go up, they never come down?
People buy RE because it keeps going up. So as long as it continues up, people buy. They sure look confident in the GTA. Out here in Van, things are slower but not dead. Actually looking similar to last year. It’s hard to say if the market in Van is going to correct now, or one more run up in the spring. I’d like to see a correction because I’ve waited so long already, but Shit never seems to go my way.
@8 wiseguy. thanks for that, added to playlist. Was he the same guy that was also featured on the frontline doc about the meltdown? (casual ? i can look up later)
Mike #32 or should I call you realtor mike?
The fact is the house of credit would crash with 1% increase in mortgage rates (people maxed out on mortgage and other credit right now) . Another funny fact would be if CHMC stopped backing sub-prime loans the market would crash over night by 30-50%. The realtors know it and that is why any little change to CHMC rules and they all start kicking and sceaming. Realtors/mortgage brokers fear the free and over markets. Canada is in the greatest housing ponzi in history all thanks to Harper and his fellow CONs.
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“With higher rates ahead, plus our Boomer time bomb, and an ocean of debt, this could be a long ride to the bottom. If you scored just 6%, you’d have $3,000 a month . . .” — Precisely what we would do.
All that glitters . . . So why bother with an illiquid and expensive pile of bricks and mortar, which would probably cost around $1500 / month (outgoing) just to maintain? What’s the rush? Rent a few years and see how the quality of life improves.
With this in mind, Scotiabank’s line would be correct — “You’re richer than you think, by not owning and wasting, rather investing well.” (But don’t invest with the banks — use a fee-based advisor.)
Ignore the m$m and RE pumpers. They are there for one reason only only — to separate you from your money. Stay liquid. “A fool and his money are soon parted.”
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#17 Smoking Man — “And we can constantly watch BS get exposed . . . David Suzuki said North pole melted and Santa moved.”
David Suzuki is another bought and paid for puppet, and is a great example of why several people (like us) have no time for the contrived drivel which the m$m constantly barfs up.
BTW, where are Sadaam’s nukes? America destroyed an entire country based on those lies — Here.
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Pension Depop. Nice of the UK govt.; eBay settles lawsuit Musta dun summat naughty; BoA Be prepared; Soros This exactly what TPTB want, as they know how to profit handsomely; EU thinks twice Surprised they can think at all; Oz cuts rates and Economic Storm A NWO comes forth; Merkel’s Grand Plan Not yet; China – US trade war. This will spice things up, esp. for Walmart.
Commodities Race China – US again; Canada, Japan Gold, 5:13 clip A penny saved (copper), ECB, EU break-up?, More Please! This financial stuff is never-ending; Securities Sector worth US$60 bln.
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Come Fly With Me Not Frank Sinatra, but a new documentary on birds; China Hu says navy should prepare for combat; NATO – Kuwait Opening a new centre. Why? Oil, of course! Iran Nuke power plants can’t be halted; The Green Machine Wheels coming off; 1:37 clip Why did dubya buy land in Paraguay? US – UK Stirring the pot in Russia. See if the bear bites back; Referendum I cannot understand why people in the UK might want to join a failing sate. Then again, People Are Strange; Rioting When you have nothing, you have nothing left to lose.
FEMA Camps New twist, and it might go with this and this; Execution US govt. turning on its own citizens; Interesting graphic.
wow
Why don’t people rent!!!!! As in a real place, why live with your parents when you can rent a proper place
Turning point: Even the HAMs have become bears…
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/28/business/la-fi-china-bears-20111128
“Do that for two years, then ask me again. Then I’ll be in vultch mode. And irresistible.” Garth
Sit and wait for another two years? Let’s face it, this blog has been very good at describing what’s happening in the real estate market, but not so hot when it comes to calls about timing. And timing is really all that matters. I suspect many followers of this blog have acted upon its erroneous timing forecasts and have consequently lost large amounts of money. It’s their own fault, but to some degree they’ve been misled down a garden path.
Nobody ‘loses’ money when they delay buying an inflated asset destined to decline. You realtors need better logic. — Garth
VREAA should just close down their website. They got it SO WRONG. Even their “fans” lament
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My Brother-in-Law bought his house last year in Burnaby and tells me that it is now worth $300K more. Seriously, what is the point in actually working for a living in Vancouver?”
Posted on 3 December 2011 | 25 Comments
“I rent a house in Kits and the houses to my direct left and right sold the same week in July, both OVER asking. So, I’m not sure that Kits is dead, just yet. The house to my right sold $500K over asking and the house to my left sold just over asking at $2M. They bought that house in 2006 for $700K, so not a bad profit in 5 years. They plan to rent and buy back in after the correction. The family that made $500K on their house are renting the house back from the mainland Chinese purchaser for the next year and are basically flippers and looking for their next Kits project. They bought the house in 2009, so a tidy $500K profit in less than 2 years isn’t bad either. I’m just a sucker with a really high paying job that can’t afford squat in this town. …
I am seriously banking on a correction in Vancouver next year. I have noticed in the last several months that house prices are slowly coming down (barely) or at least stagnating and definitely selling under asking in the burbs (I almost bought my dream house, but kept strong!). I do now notice that houses are being pulled off the market and there isn’t much selection these days. Lots of crap on the market. I’m hoping this is just seasonal and that next spring will show plenty of inventory at reduced prices. The Vancouver market seems to be resilient for the time being. Very frustrating to say the least. My BIL bought his house last year in Burnaby and tells me that it is now worth $300K more. Seriously, what is the point in actually working for a living in Vancouver?”
Aussie Update
RE lobby spruiks hard as interest rates are cut.
BELEAGUERED real estate agents believe yesterday’s rate cut could be the next step towards a property recovery.
The only chink in the chain leading to increasing property prices is the looming European economic crisis.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the second consecutive rate cut by the RBA was a positive sign for 2012.
“We’ve seen the bottom”. – LOL
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/only-eu-can-stop-property-recovery/story-e6freuy9-1226215558236
We have often warned that negative gearing is really only good when house prices are rising. Now the mainstream media is ringing the same bells.
http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2011/12/negative-gearing-time-to-rethink-your-approach/
Here’s a couple more charts from the National Accounts. The two speeds of Australian states are starting to become pretty crazy. Victoria and South Australia are in recession.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/12/two-speeds-out-the-wazoo/
Steve Keen
Rob Johnson of INET conducted a very detailed interview with me when I called in to INET’s offices en route to the launch of Debunking Economics.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/12/05/inet-interview/
#55 Aussie Roy
Good day mate! I want to formally invite you to the first annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Greater Fool Blog Dog Christmas party in beautiful Sunnyvale Nova Scotia. It will be great having one of the international blog dogs there. You will really enjoying meeting all the misfits in the park and meeting the bearded sage in person as he joins all the blog dogs in this festive activity. Hope to see you there Roy.
Re: Soylent Green is People on 12.07.11 at 12:47 am
Yeah, what aboutbbuilding 7?
Your link was to a ‘You have been Ricked” or some shit. That is a spam that made me turn off my PC you fucking piece of shit. Asshole-grow up! Think that is funny? Fucking moron.
I can’t stand the fact that any of these Remax articles can’t make the connection of accumulation of mortgage debt with the increase of house prices. That HAS to be explained in all these articles to paint the entire picture.
I don’t disagree with them that house prices might rise another year, but some time there is a limit to how much debt people can take on. Hopefully, this period of saturation of debt will come with some kind of crisis which will drop commodity prices, a lower demand from China, and continuous loss of employment in Canada which will in turn drop house prices. We do have our “made in Canada”, which needs only a trigger to start getting the motion of house prices downwards.
Garth, you are right about the fact that house prices are overvalued and they will drop eventually. Unfortunately, timing this appears more challenging than originally thought. It makes sense financially to rent at this point because we’ve surpassed United States with the amount of debt accumulation. We can expect the same consequences that happened in States including continuous loss of jobs from housing-related industries.
5% down payment requirements, plus the cash back option makes these mortgages essentially sub-prime. It’s a shame that people don’t do research before renting money
I did not say “interest.” — Garth
No you didn’t it was my bad…
…that means if you are so risk-averse you can only stomach interest-bearing investments, forget earning 6%. Which is it? — Garth
“Of course, you could always invest your $635,000. If you scored just 6% (in securities which keep your house money secure), you’d have $3,000 a month to spend leasing a place”
Garth, I enjoy reading your blog, and I agree with most of the things you say. But whenever you post something like the statement above, my blood pressure goes up, and your credibility goes down. There is no way to make 6% while keeping your money secure. No way! I have my retirement savings invested as you have repeatedly suggested, in preferreds, corporate bond ETFs, dividend stock ETFs, and REITs. And while the volatility of my portfolio is certainly substantially lower than the market in general, there are many days when I just want to cash it all in and give up. I’d be thrilled with an annual return of 6%. Absolutely thrilled. But it ain’t happening, man. Not this year. Not in this environment. And every time you suggest that it can be done, I sense that some more of your readers are as ticked off as I am. Words are easy to say. But you can’t continue to make statements like that without backing them up with something more specific. And I don’t mean just a few words like “preferreds, REITs, quality dividend-paying ETFs, etc”. That just doesn’t cut it for me any more.
If it were all in perpetual bank preferreds you would receive a 5% fixed return and be able to claim the dividend tax credit, effectively equal to a 6% GIC yield. How hard was that? The question is whether you are invested for income or long-term growth. — Garth
“No People, No Problem”: The Baltic Tigers’ False Prophets of Austerity
Latvian’s and Lithuanians
unemployment and service cost go down because people leave.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/lithuanian-central-bank-fires-regulator-after-snoras-takeover.html
assets missing
Lithuanian Snoras bank
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/lithuanian-central-bank-fires-regulator-after-snoras-takeover.html
Morning fellow blog dogs. Just got off the phone with the bearded oracle who runs this blog and he correctly pointed out that since the first annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Greater Fool Blog Dog Christmas Party has a couple of sturdy Clydesdales and wagons we should have a Christmas parade to start the festivities off. The parade will make its grand entry into Sunnyvale and tour the streets with all blog dogs aboard and of course the grand marshal himself, the former right honourable Garth Turner riding high in the last wagon. The date has been finalized and it will be the weekend of the 17 and 18th of December so that all the blog dogs can return to their families for Christmas.
Devore #30
“……Mortgage brokers are just resellers for “banks” (well, mortgage lenders), they have no pricing power in the market.”
Yes they do. Brokers are able to “buy down” the rate from certain lenders in order to secure the business, by reducing their commission.
Morning Westernman and Form Man. In my morning chat with Sir Garth he informed me that he will be giving the winner of the ploughing match several signed copies of his books. He also told me that he wants to co-referee the contest with Johny Bravo. I have been taken aback by the enthusiasm the bearded one has displayed with this first annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Greater Fool Blog Dog Christmas party.
#24 Mr.Lahey
Just wondering, is Sunnyvale the elusive “Land of misfit toys?” , I thought it was near the North Pole….
and in the future can I refer to it as the STPGFBDC Party?
#49 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.11 at 1:34 am
Sadam did not have nukes. America freed up a country and got nothing in return. Sadam himself was a weapon of mass destruction.
@ LAST, my thoughts exactly. The guy and his family are living with his parents??? With over $500,000 in assets!!! Why not rent a nice place for, say $2500 per month? Likely he would answer:
“But that’s just throwing money away!!!”
I guess this aversion to rent comes from the language we use; terminology drummed into our heads by the banks and the realtors. Paying rent for decent accomodations is “throwing money away”, while taking out a ginormous mortgage is “building equity”.
Of course when stated in those terms, the choice is obvious. Would I rather throw money away, or build equity? Duh. It should be equally obvious that those terms do not accurately portray reality. Alas, it is not obvious to many millions of homebuyers.
So now the RE people are claiming illegal refugees will save us all?
Rather difficult to be illegal w/o a social security number, buy big ticket items like housing, cars etc. With knowledge you could be kicked out at any time.
Would think many illegals who make good cash would be smart enough to squirrel money back home and not leave it exposed in Canada.
Rick, are you saying you don’t like Soylent Green? :)
#44 Soylent,
my free security program just paid for itself by blocking and reporting the trojan horse in your link.
You’ve been around too long for #57 to be applicable. Is someone messing with you?
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1097889–mortgage-rates-are-poised-to-rise?bn=1
Substantiates what Garth and many on this blog have said. Interest rates are already moving upward in the individual banks.
People are being quietly squeezed. We won’t know the full extent of the damage for at least another year.
I’m now betting 60% of the Toronto condos to be built in next few years will never come to light. And those that do at $700+ per square foot, will be albatrosses
Hurrah! finally a party on the island of misfit toys.
You can be the toy bird who swims instead of flies and I’ll be the misfit cowboy who rides an ostrich. Garth can be the Garth-in-a-box.
How exciting! I’ll feed my ostrich extra this week so he makes the journey from the land of Dolton McGuilty.
I think it would be fitting if BPOE is the toy boat that sinks rather than floats. Who wants to be the spotted elephant?
Hurrah! I must go tell the others…
#64 Mingeford
Which is how they can offer somewhat lower rates. It’s not like they have huge offices in fancy downtown buildings named after them, they can run lower margins. When price of money goes up in the market, mortgage brokers don’t get to say no.
My answer was to a statement implying that the recent VRM bumps from banks are somehow “set” by the banks, and brokers can buck them. They’re just responding to market pressures same as everyone else, and competing with other banks and lenders. If they didn’t have to raise rates, they definitely wouldn’t.
>>>#16 Synnyrs on 12.06.11 at 10:45 pm
Look Synnyrs .. You and all your other firsty imbeciles, why don’t you leave this blog for the adults, and you guys head over to here.
http://www.sesamestreet.org/
#44 Soylent
Very funny. I think you should be banned for forcing me to do a full shut down and losing some stuff I was working on. A-Hole
She is now banned. — Garth
Mr.Lahey,
If you invite Ron Paul. It’ll be a total buzz kill..and Garth will probably be a no-show. I can see him standing in the corner nursing his JackDaniels and Coke and laughing nervously.
Tony, grow a set and move out of your parents basement, you’re 39 for gawds sakes. Then go and buy now and tell us how it’s going in a couple of years.
rEVOLution ;-)
Far be it from me to be a real estate pusher BUT the market here in Toronto is still very robust. NO slowdown.. […] NO reversal in sight. The only way it will slow and then reverse is a sizable increase in interest rates and I do mean sizable.
Have you learned NOTHING from recent busts in the US, Ireland, Spain, the UK et al? They weren’t triggered by interest rate hikes or higher unemployment, saved by immigration or foreign investment, or contained to subprime borrowers or subpar properties.
Once prices get this high relative to rents and incomes, all that’s required is for prices to stop rising for a few months. Then the speculators will start to sell…
I wonder how useful the ratio of avg income to house prices really is, as there are significant portions of the population who might have bought houses 20 yrs ago and are still living in them today and these people might earn less then avg income but happen to live in houses that have appreciated greatly, but have no desire to move.
How is this different from 20 years ago? We look at the TREND of price/income. Right now, it’s extreme both when viewed historically and when compared to other countries. So you have to come up with an explanation for a secular trend of Canadians deciding to spend more on shelter and less on everything else. “Cocooning?”
And if you think today’s first time buyers have fat salaries because of high market demand for twenty-somethings in the job market, you should get out more.
The ugly McMansion on Bath Road is still for sale, surprise, surprise. Maybe the next sign will say it is reduced by $2 million.
Can we come to the Christimas party? My husband is a piper and my daughter is a drummer. They can lead the parade.
#10 Canadian Watchdog
Every student or immigrant who is a permanent resident is eligible to apply for student loans and CMHC insurance for mortgages, all backed by Canadian taxpayers.
Permanent residents are the backbone of the university and housing boom in Ontario. What government would dare to challenge easy loan policies for newcomers, or any Canadian for that matter?
And here is a link from McMaster University advising foreign students on how to change their immigration status to Permanent Resident status to avoid paying those hefty international (foreign student) fees.
http://oisa.mcmaster.ca/immigrationmatters/changeofstatus.cfm
#57 Rick in Japan on 12.07.11 at 8:30 am
——————————————–
hahaha, you’ve been ‘Rick-rolled’. I’ve been ‘Rick-rolled’ thrice in my life, and I gotta say it gets better each time.
Doctors, medical researchers and drug companies like to persuade all present and potential consumers of health care that medicine is a science and has advanced far beyond the mystical incantations and witch doctor remedies of the past. But modern medicine is not a science and modern clinicians and medical researchers are not scientists. Modern clinicians may use scientific techniques but in the way that they treat their patients they are still quacks.
Doctors and the Drug industry have jointly killed thousand times more persons in peace than all the war-time casualties put together in the last 500 years. There is a graphic book titled Doctors, Drugs and Devils, which traces the grotesque history of modern medicine. There is another equally damning evidence titled America the Poisoned, which records the evil effects of deadly chemicals destroying our environment, our wildlife and ourselves. And then there is that all-time famous treatise by Dr. Ivan Illich called The Medical Nemesis (or Limits to Medicine), which the drug companies bulk-purchased and burnt. The intelligent readers of Amrit Manthan may read these scholarly books to advantage and unite to protect their own health which is in great danger.
The foundation of modern, 20th century medical thinking is the Cartesian principle that although the mind and the body are linked they are essentially separate entities. WRONG.
Too many modern doctors neither cure nor care. Superstition and suspicion are the principal foundations of 20th century medical science. Error is built upon error and unproven theories are used as building blocks for new ideas.
In the early 1980’s, the American Society of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgeons argued that there is a substantial and enlarging body of medical information and opinion to the effect that these deformities
(small breast) are really a disease. Plastic surgeons gave the disease a name – micromastia – and did their best to stamp it out. It is estimated that in the last 30 years over 2 million victims of micromastia have
been identified and ‘cured’ by plastic surgeons in America alone.
But, you may say, even if treatments are not selected with scientific precision, surely diagnoses are made in a scientific fashion? Again, the evidence does not support that contention. After one recent survey two
pathologists reported that after carrying out 400 post-mortem examinations they had found that in more than half the patients the wrong diagnosis had been made. This presumably also means that in more than half the patients the wrong treatment had been given. And since so many modern treatments are undeniably powerful it also presumably means that a large proportion of those patients died because of their treatment. The two pathologists reported that potentially treatable
disease was missed in one in seven patients. They found that 65 out of 134 cases of pneumonia had gone unrecognised while out of 51 patients who had suffered heart attacks doctors had failed to diagnose the problem in 18 cases. Ignorance has become commonplace in medical practice.
Doctors go to great lengths to disguise the fact that they are practising a black art rather than a science. The medical profession has created a ‘pseudoscience’ of mammoth proportions and today’s doctors rely on a vast variety of instruments and tests and pieces of equipment with which to explain and dignify their interventions. This, of course, is nothing new. The alchemists of the middle ages and the witch doctors
of Africa realised that words and spells reeked of gods and sorcery and so they created a secret and impenetrable structure of herbs, songs, dance, rattling of special bones, chants and ceremonial incantations.
Today’s clinicians have much more sophisticated mumbo jumbo to offer. They have laser surgery and psychotherapy, CAT scanners and serum manganese assessments to substantiate their claims to be scientists. But however good the impenetrable pseudoscience may sound or seem to be, and
however well based on scientific principles the equipments and the techniques is still little more than mumbo jumbo. Doctors may use scientific instruments but that doesn’t make them scientists any more
than a witch doctor would become a scientist if he wore a stethoscope and danced around a microscope!
Now, if doctors were aware that medicine was not a science and that they were pulling what is undoubtedly the largest and most successful confidence trick ever tried the damage would be fairly minimal. But the
problem is compounded by the fact that the vast majority of doctors believe the lie that they are taught; they believe that they are scientists, practising an applied science.
You can apply the same rationale to traders and investors who rely on advice from those who purport to know what they’re doing. Granted, some do, and obviously most don’t, or we wouldn’t be having the CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE we have now.
#57 Rick in Japan on 12.07.11 at 8:30 am…
言語を見て、ください。
Allergies are a mild form of the cold or flu. “They” will not dare tell you this because allergies are trillion dollar babies for the cartels. Now they are blaming winter seasonal allergies on the Christmas trees, because of course there is no pollen at this time. TOTAL QUACKERY. Don’t be fooled. The symptoms of allergy versus cold/flu are EXACTLY the same with some minor variations. Your body is producing both the virus and the symptoms, the dis-ease condition does not arise from others sneezing around you. This is utterly false, but utterly profitable. Like vaccines…
Here is how I cured myself (thanks to Dr. Mercola): Vitamins. Just take 1000 IU of vitamin D and 500 IU of vitamin C daily and religiously. Add a dash of cheerful optimism, and you will NEVER suffer again. These two vital amine compounds are critical to every enzyme pathway of importance in your body. When lacking in these, your body will throw tantrums. You can trust me.
#61 Steve
Last month I invested $40k for long term. Target return is 8% yield; dividend paid monthly.
Google: “Pennant Pure Yield Fund”
there are lots of other similar ways to achieve good returns.
Irwin
#53 HDJ on 12.07.11 at 3:11 am…
Wrong, wrong, wrong…
If we had acted upon Prof. Turners’ advice in 2010 instead of the spring 2011, we would have cleared around $ 100K more in the sale of our Victoria home.
Based on a former neighbour who has relisted (with an asking less than our sale price) their comparable home, it would appear we would have lost another $ 35K since the spring. Maybe more, we will see if our neighbour gets any offers!!
This keeping in mind they originally listed in early 2010, but greed got in the way of common sense and their place languished on the market. They dropped the price twice, then took it off the market three months ago – now relisted.
So sad…
Paraphrasing . . . . In the short-term, we may experience the value of real assets going down versus cash holdings increasing but to bail out Europe and fund U.S. spiralling debt the world will continue to print trillions of (non-existing) dollars. Currencies will be debased against tangible things, e.g., real estate, read inflation, an invisible tax on savings, much easier to implement than say raising taxes or cutting back on services.
Source: Vancouver Sun article
http://tinyurl.com/c7tvlxc
Oops, that should be Christmas.
Christi must have been in the manger next door.
#167 and #178 yesterday
the stats came from the OMREB site for November 2011
Central Okanagan, Peachland to Lake Country ( Kelowna and surrounding area )
#188 comfortably numb yesterday
The Alberta buyers have certainly diminished since 2008. I believe this is because a lot of them were buying when prices were rising to ‘lock in’. Obviously this is no longer a reason. In addition many of the Alberta buyers were speculating ( with falling prices, they have disappeared ). Finally, anecdotally, we are told the Albertans are now favouring Arizona and Nevada over the Okanagan for recreation and retirement properties.
#23 Mr. Lahey
Alas, westernman has rejected the olive branch offered. Apparently he is frightened of horses as well as women. He once was married, but continues to harbour intense bitterness over the child support and alimony he was compelled to pay. He has resorted to only dating ‘ladies of the evening’, but these gals are draining his pocketbook, causing even greater anger and frustration in the poor sod.
It seems the christmas spirit will continue to elude westernman. We all hope he one day breaks free from his self-imposed rage and isolation, and moves to the Okanagan to run and jump in the sunshine like a young lamb……
It’s really VERY drmatic to the problems that occur in a unsustainable housing bubble. Here in EDMONTON Alberta, prices remain about 20% under the peak of 2007. The Media said oil prices would go above $200 are barrel & never come down. The Edmonton Remax Real Estate board said prices would go up 2-3% A MONTH for the next year in the in 2007 when in fact they went down over 10%!
Everyone is so in debt here now it affects all walks of life and socirty in General. Homeless very prevalent, up form 10% of families living in poverty to 20% several highrise hotels & condos going bankrupt!
Now so many families are so in debt in Edmonton and they can’t get out withou losing everything! So sad !
Manhattan vs Toronto comparison:
Manhattan:
Median home price (Oct. 2011): $850k
Median income (2005): $190k
Ratio: 4.4:1 (and likely lower, since incomes have risen since 2005)
Toronto:
Median home price (2011): ~$420k (tough to find – had to check MLS to estimate this, since the media loves using averages -> no surprise since the high end inflates what’s really happening!)
Median income (2005): $60k
Ratio: 7:1 (again, probably a bit lower since my income # is from 2005, but it’ll be close).
So even with median numbers rather than averages we’re still more overvalued than Manhattan. And Toronto’s not quite Manhattan :)
That said, Garth can you please stop quoting averages – they’re less accurate – median values are a much better picture as they exclude the effects of a small number of expensive homes. Example: in Manhattan, median price is $850k, but average is $1.45M.
#14 Kevin
re: $ of debt canadians…
Ahh…Kevin, I believe in 2010 1.45 billion should be $1.45 trillion?
BPOE: My BIL bought his house last year in Burnaby and tells me that it is now worth $300K more. Seriously, what is the point in actually working for a living in Vancouver?”
$300K ? now you see it now you don’t. He can always move in with you.
Talking of the ocean of debt. News from the opposite shore http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2071029/UK-debt-3-5m-say-forced-super-high-payday-loans.html.
@ Garth’s comment on #61 Steve:
“If it were all in perpetual bank preferreds you would receive a 5% fixed return and be able to claim the dividend tax credit, effectively equal to a 6% GIC yield. How hard was that? The question is whether you are invested for income or long-term growth. — Garth”
Good that you have an “if” at the beginning of the sentence :)
Garth, you will be probably surprised to find out that all Canadian bank preferred shares are non-cumulative and redeemable.
Non-cumulative means that the issuer can skip any dividend payment and the investors cannot ever claim those payments.
Redeemable means that the issuer can redeem the shares at face value, at a certain moment in the future . For redeemables, your return is the yield calculated using bond formula, based on coupon and maturity, and not the coupon.
I don’t think you answered Steve’s question.
No surprise here, except you trying to sound like an expert. No Canadian bank has missed a preferred dividend payment, nor will they. It would be a major event akin to one of the towers at King & Bay falling over. As for redeemable, if an issue is redeemed (you will have plenty of warning), it will be done at a premium, meaning not only a fat dividend during ownership but a likely capital gain on the sale. Steve had his answer. So do you. — Garth
Hi Garth.
Any comments on investing with
http://www.peoplestrust.com
or
http://www.canadiandirectfinancial.com
They offer 3% on TFSA?
Why would you do that? — Garth
Interesting news story on CBC radio…
It was about “binners” in Vancouver. Binners are people who pick up bottles and cans out of recycle bins to extract $$ at the local depot.
The story gets interesting when it is discovered that a lot of the “binners” (street people with no home, car or other income) are being out-done by increasing numbers of more wealthy people who own cars and actually downtown condos beating them to the stash of bottles!
Me thinks these wealthy condo owners are finding it hard to break even on their monthly finances after putting 65% of their take home income to their so called investment!!!
#66 Ammo and Viagara
#24 Mr.Lahey
“Just wondering, is Sunnyvale the elusive “Land of misfit toys?” , I thought it was near the North Pole….
and in the future can I refer to it as the STPGFBDC Party”
Greetings Ammo. No son it is not the land of the misfit toys. The loveable misfits that inhabit Sunnyvale are the likes of Randy, Ricky, Bubbles, Julian, Corey, Trevor and so on. By all means you can refer to it as the STPGFBDCParty! We look forward to having you out. We may put you on the same float as the grand marshal of the parade, the formerly right honourable Garth Turner.
#77 Ammo and Viagara
“Mr.Lahey,
If you invite Ron Paul. It’ll be a total buzz kill..and Garth will probably be a no-show. I can see him standing in the corner nursing his JackDaniels and Coke and laughing nervously…”
On the very contrary Ammo, the bearded oracle that calls me in the morning to see how the STPGFBDCParty is coming along says in no uncertain terms that he is going to “kick the friggin ass of the gold hugging whacko” Ron Paul! You have no idea how charged up Garth is over this party. The whole park is getting itself into a frenzy over this! We need to be back on the air!
#85 Disciple
Greetings Disciple. Hope you got your complimentary plane ticket to the STPFAGFBDParty. Is this along the lines of what you will be addressing at the party? Would you mind riding in the float with the grand marshal? Please advise!
“Aggregate mortgage debt has risen from $300 billion to over $1.1 trillion. — Garth”
____
Cmon Garth, we all know debts and deficits don’t matter. The U.S. adds an extra trill and a half to its balance sheet every year and you love them for it.
You are pretty selective about which type of debt you don’t like.
#93 Form Man
#23 Mr. Lahey
“Alas, westernman has rejected the olive branch offered.”
Well we must give him all possible benefits of the doubt Form Man. I appreciate your magnanimous gestures towards Westernman. The whole trailer park is making notes of it. Your example may have serious spill over effect in the park. I have never seen such forgiveness and kindness being displayed in the park. Thanks Form Man, you have made my job as Trailer Park Supervisor so much easier!
So long as borrowing money remains virtually free, Canadian RE markets are going to hang in there… maybe we’ll even see another price run in isolated markets this spring. But I’m with Garth, give it two years. Until then, unless you’ve got money burning a hole in your pocket, buying a house is a sucker’s play. An earlier GT post mentioned renting today is “cool” – as a renter myself, I’m not so sure that’s the case in social circles quite yet! But in time, there’s no doubt renting = cool will become reality.
What is the ratio of income to house prices in Manhattan?
There are houses in Manhattan?
#88 disciple
Here is how I cured myself (thanks to Dr. Mercola): Vitamins. Just take 1000 IU of vitamin D and 500 IU of vitamin C daily and religiously. Add a dash of cheerful optimism, and you will NEVER suffer again. These two vital amine compounds are critical to every enzyme pathway of importance in your body. When lacking in these, your body will throw tantrums. You can trust me.
___
Told you, you should get out more often. Walk in the sun, even the winter sun. The rest is evident. Go on a date.
#105 harden
Cheap money cannot propel housing much further. The market is becoming saturated with product, leaving insufficient buyers to keep the wheel turning. As Garth has pointed out repeatedly, we have been constructing homes at a faster rate than population growth for some years now ( it should also be noted that many homes counted as ‘one’; subsequently have illegal suites installed, meaning the official numbers are likely undercounted ).
Our employment has been supported by a housing boom for a while now. As the economy slows, people will begin ‘doubling up’, and speculators will be desperately selling. At that point the overhang of inventory will be more than apparent.
Renting will definitely be ‘cool’ then.
Mr. Lahey
Why was I not invited to this shindig. Of course I would fly down and rent my own Motor home.
___
Serious question regarding RRSPs. Most seniors, I know, won’t spend any RRSPS and resent the fact that they have to relinquish them starting at 71. Which is retarded. But?
They hold on to these assets and brag to their other senile friends how much they have. Granted I don’t live in Sunnywhat Trailer Park?
How much does the government get back on average from these proud, hard working demented seniors, just curious. Would like the percentage.
How many people actually spend them. The ones that have serious coin.
I am going to spend mine, just don’t know when.
Not not a senior yet. But does the govt win in the end?
The Canadian housing market is far less efficient than other markets around the globe (most notably the US where corrections are violent and system flushes itself quickly). Our bubble is going to reach larger proportions and take far longer to unwind. A long slow death, a 20 year decline is a distinct possibility. We are well passed the tipping point, boomers buying in most Canadian markets won’t see a real rate of return from their investment in this lifetime. Younger generation will spend best years of their lives dragged down by a dead financial asset. No college fund for their children, no opportunity to travel, no little extras that make life worthwhile – no retirement fund. Gov’t is setting the stage for the pain to last a generation, which is never good for society. Strangely ironic we get to watch the US moderate and shift to a political center, while Canada shifts to the harshness of the political right.
disciple
enough of your quack remedies , you clearly are extremely biased and of course, wrong.
‘because of course there is no pollen at this time’
we have pollen and mold and dust and car pollution all season.
my wife has taken vitamins as you ‘prescribed’ for years.
and yet her allergies continue.
furthermore her suffering follows the rise and fall of the various things she is allergic to very closely.
when she is in a place like the chilcotin the symptoms drop dramatically .our reasoning is that in this part of the country has a very clean atmosphere compared to vancouver.
and all those people who long ago went to the sunbelt of the U.S. to alleviate their allergy symptoms found that their symptoms all but disappeared.
and when many more retirees came to these places and planted the gardens full of the flowers ect that these poor individuals left elswhere ,the symptoms came back.
are you going to tell these folks that they have the flu?
yow!
Taxpayer Protection Pledge the 1% solution
Sarcasm seems to exercise the brain
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/The-Science-of-Sarcasm-Yeah-Right.html
selling fraudulent tax shelters
KPMG Weighed Bankruptcy as U.S. Threatened Charges, Memos Say
By Robert Schmidt – June 19, 2007 00:07 EDT
================
We are not the successor of, we are not a continuation of, Western civilisation. We are a unique and different civilisation.
Grover Norquist, anti-tax president of Americans for Tax Reform,
cited in Perfectly Legal by David Cay Johnston, p3
Publication Date: December 25, 2003
Canadian DRIP List: this may be of some help in building your buy and hold portfolio…
http://www.dripprimer.ca/canadiandriplist
US 30 yr at 3.75. What an opportunity for those in the position to arbitrage against income producing assets.
Devore #74
The main thrust of the question you quoted was whether Mortgage Brokers can still provide “special deals”. You said no and I described how it can be done.
For your further information please note the fixed rates are governed by the bond market and the variable rates are dictated by the Bank of Canada rate.
Form Man,
Man, you are tedious, and way,way off the mark…
Of course I rejected the “olive branch” ( did you major in cliche’s in school)… accepting would have devalued me by putting me on the same level as you.
That is to say henpecked,indentured slave with a chronic cliche and scotch problem.
not sure if anyone has posted this already; it’s from a few days ago:
http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/bankrate/what-happened-to-canadas-real-estate-crisis
good little canadian real estate video if you haven’t seen it.
#111 bill
although completely off this blog topic
thank you for responding to disciple’s argument about pollen and allergies. Not sure if he or his witch doctor know how immune systems work or why people react to certain things in environment- but i can tell you one thing vits and minerals don’t don’t stop immune systems from over reacting or in the cold/flu issue immune sysytems being compromised. if it were so simple and effective everyone would be doing it- not all medicine/drugs work and not witch doctor potions and cocktails work.
Regarding the Solyent Green Nonsense. . .
I actually did not think my post would appear as it was.
Yes, I was pissed off. And no, it is not funny.
Thanks Snowbird. Now: くたばれ.
#109 Beach girl
Serious question regarding RRSPs. Most seniors, I know, won’t spend any RRSPS and resent the fact that they have to relinquish them starting at 71. Which is retarded. But?
They hold on to these assets and brag to their other senile friends how much they have. Granted I don’t live in Sunnywhat Trailer Park?
______________________________________________
i know many “seniors” who have a great deal of money socked away in RRSPs—and you’re right they won’t spend it–many i know have a small pension along with CPP and live on the edge of poverty —-they tell me they don’t withdraw from their RRSP because doing so will put them over the magic income threshold (in BC anyway)where they will no longer qualify for GST/HST rebate and Government assisted medical (fully paid for low income earners in BC)
believe it or not i know one ex-teacher(62) who says she has over 80k sitting in RRSP term deposits and says she’s just going to leave the money to her two kids
#116 westernman
Now that is likely the best written, best spelt,most polite comment we have had from you ever. I dare say my gentle proddings have improved you westernman………….remember though, baby steps……..and don’t be discouraged with setbacks….
Mr. Lahey,
I’m really OK with Beach Gal attending the party, but can she leave the leaf blower at home?
#121 Rick in Japan
I clicked on that link, should I be worried? I was on my laptop this am, but on my PC now and haven’t noticed anything. I’m functionally bad with computers.. :)
#117 Mingeford
Well of course brokers will continue to offer deals. Is the sky blue? Come on, give me some credit here.
My point is, if rates go up 0.50% and banks have to raise their rates, so do brokers. Eventually. They can eat the spread for only so long. Banks raise rates because they have to. If they just unilaterally raised them because they want more money, their competitors would have them for lunch. People will switch all their banking to get 0.05% better rate somewhere else.
Brokers will always offer competitive rates, RELATIVE TO the banks, because that’s what they do, and their business is set up to allow that. But if rates go up, rates go up.
Form Man,
You seem quite pleased at being called a henpecked,indentured slave with a chronic cliche and scotch problem…you are getting stranger all the time.
I guess thats a compliment to the average Canadian…
Hi All:
I was “rickrolled” (what they call it when you get tricked into clicking on a link to a Rick Astley Video) by Soylent as well, and I’m sorry if people lost their dta and files as a result of having to restart their computer to make it stop…but there is another way. Since you can’t close the browser popups, all you do is hit Ctrl-Alt-Delete, which brings up the Task Manager in most versions of windows….then you can turn off the annoying process (your Internet Explorer or Firefox or whatever). That means the spam popups will close, but it leaves the files you were working on at the time untouched. Many already know this, but I thought I’d add it it case it ever comes up again. Shut down the process, not the computer. Good luck.
#83 Ret
Yes I’m well aware of the situation it seems to be inline with a conservative policy to allow a chaotic situation on the micro level. What most don’t realize is that immigration is becoming a major factor in supporting the rental market—in turn feeding the speculators. Read any CMHC housing market report and you’ll see an acknowledgement about the situation.
I don’t see how the housing market will collapse quickly other then an exogenous global crises taking down the financial market, which is 50/50 at the moment. Until then don’t expect a major crash when Toronto vacancy rates look like this http://i40.tinypic.com/5yc41k.png
“Pity the European bond trader.
Once the master of a booming euro zone universe spanning Greece, Italy and Germany, he now presides over a shrunken, fear-struck bond market — and might well lose his job by the end of the year.
Panic that the default of a euro zone economy might lead to a crackup of the monetary union has turned European bonds, once freely traded and viewed as risk-free, into semi-poisonous hot potatoes that in some cases trade only by appointment.
The result has been a sharp drop-off in trading volume — the mother’s milk of bank profits — raising questions within capital-constrained banks in Europe about how much longer they will stick with their overstaffed bond divisions.
They may number only about a thousand here in Europe’s bond trading hub, but these highly paid traders, sales people and derivatives wizards have in many ways been at the vanguard of the boom and bust of the European debt bubble. Now that bubble risks pushing the euro zone into a second recession at the cost of millions of public and private sector jobs.”
http://tinyurl.com/75edgl4
#127 westernman
you have quite an obsession with being henpecked and enslaved.
on your new journey you will learn how to have healthy relationships with women, involving mutual respect and sharing.
you will no longer need to fear being dominated, as your woman will treat you as an equal. I know this is scary for you………..but worth it for your self growth. we are all rooting for you westernman.
go forth and show the world how you can be tender and confident. trust me, the old insecurities and hate will begin to fade away…….
to 604: There is nothing “witch doctor” about using natural medicines; they are the oldest forms in fact. There is also nothing “witch doctor” about the most important supplement everyone needs to fight viruses and stay well: probiotics. And the right amount of Vitamin D. Good to get a proper blood test to know where your D levels are.
You would be surprised how little you come down with colds and flus from simple things like keeping your intestinal flora healthy (probiotics) because those little buggers are actually 80% of your immune system.
Is there anyone who reads this blog who ever worries about the ability of the issuers of these great yield investments to actually deliver said dividends consistently for many years into the future. Would anyone agree that it is not worth reaching for an “8% yield” if the dividend were suspended in 6 months time and the investor ends up with a total cumulative return of -96%. Just wondering if I’m the only one.
It’s all about the quality of the asset. Not hard to discover. — Garth
Nobody ‘loses’ money when they delay buying an inflated asset destined to decline. You realtors need better logic. — Garth
Wrong – I’m not a realtor. Many lost potential profits because they responded to this blog and sold a few years ago and rented. Their timing was all wrong. In Vancouver and surrounding areas, those who stayed in the market made hundreds of thousands. The first group jumped out far too soon. Isn’t this obvious?
Not at all. Realizing profits requires buying and selling costs, which are substantial and wipe out all but extraordinary gains in any market. You cannot and should not treat houses like stocks. Those who bought in the last three years for a multi-year hold will not be happy. — Garth
–
#67 egoboy – Mudsville — “Sadam himself was a weapon of mass destruction.” — Can’t spell, but that’s to be expected.
Ever think of doing research and investigation? If, according to dubya and others, Sadaam did have nuke WMD (which he didn’t), then where did he get them from? Did Santa have a dump on him? Who is the meathead here? Sadaam, dubya or you?
Perhaps doing basics, instead of constantly criticizing others (which your over-inflated ego obviously enjoys), your retorts may be answered. Hence — US and UK, here, here and here.
Now STFU, go back into your playpen, hide under the blankets and play with yourself. Something might be stimulated, but it sure as hell won’t be the space between your ears, you arrogant, pathetic know-it-all.
*
Idiots A simpleton’s guide to why western capitalism is headed the way of the dodo bird; China Factory unrest grows; Jobs is the main thing, and they’re going, going . . .; 4:09 clip Hyper Inflation? That’s a political choice; Money Laundering Desperate times, etc; USPS Not in great shape; Unemployed Protests in DC.
*
Timing Is Everything This one is for you! Clifton Stewart “Radio interview with Clifton Stewart who served as a radio intelligence officer in WW2 and who intercepted the Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor weeks in advance. He reported it to the US Government, but of course Roosevelt did nothing, because he needed that attack on Pearl Harbor to trick the US into the war against Hitler.” wrh.com, and US fired first shot; Ohio Nuke plant cracking, but cleared to re-open; Manchurian Candidate Newt Gingrich; Pseudo Science CC gone nuts (it’s getting out of hand); FEMA Camps Love ’em or hate ’em, and Indefinite Detention; Kenya Deploying troops next year?
Centralized Control “Remember how much fun California had when ENRON had centralized control of their power grid?” wrh.com; WW3 “The launching of an outright war using nuclear warheads against Iran has been on the active drawing board of the Pentagon since 2005.”; Smart Phone Spying Evidently, not allowed; Af’stan US$400 a gallon gas; NWO Health Standards Tyrannical, like ObombaCare; Russia Killing NATO softly.
#111 Beach Girl
“Mr. Lahey, Why was I not invited to this shindig. Of course I would fly down and rent my own Motor home”.
Why Beach Girl you and all the blog dogs were invited! I am sorry if I did not give you a specific invitation. You will not have to incur the cost of a motor home, trailers are being provided for all blog dogs (sorry the granite countertop one is for the bearded oracle who runs this blog). We look forward to having you at the FASTPBDCP(First Annual Sunnyvale Trailer Park Blog Dog Christmas Party). You will just love all the misfits in the park. I told Bubbles about your coming and he is just tickled pink! He says he wants to sit next to you on the sleigh ride through the forest. You will get a real kick out of Bubbles. See you there!
Form Man,
You must buy that scotch by the palletload, huh?
I’ve always thought that being a servant and subject
to incessant nagging were bad things…thanks for
setting me straight on that…
In all honesty you should lay off the booze…
#124 Ammo and Viagara
“Mr. Lahey,I’m really OK with Beach Gal attending the party, but can she leave the leaf blower at home.”
I will make a note of it Ammo and I am sure Beach Girl will understand your concerns. This is shaping up to be a real down east Hoedown Ammo. The park is literally ablaze with excitement! The bearded one is going to dance the first dance at the Hoedown. We are bringing in Don Messer and his Islanders to perform the best fiddle music this side of the Atlantic. Garth has told me he is practising in his bunker for this momentous event!
#93 Form Man on 12.07.11 at 12:22 pm…
You are right about the Albertans here, many more than from BC. The Albertans we have met seem to have more cash as well. One new couple a block away have bought a new car and SUV and registered both here in AZ. Almost all the Canadian folks we have met are doing major renos or are planning them.
Most of the people we have met are from BC, Alberta or Ontario – with a few from Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Like I said in a previous post, when you can get a nice home here for the price of a trailer in a West Kelowna park, is there any wonder we are all down here?
We do get a ribbing here, and I guess some Canadians deserve it. One local restaurant servers’ comment was:
What’s the difference between a canoe and a canuck?
The canoe can tip!
#121 Rick in Japan on 12.07.11 at 5:46 pm…
So you are upset, I get it – but the language was over the top.
I’m surprised as during the entire time I was in Japan (Nagoya) I seldom heard anything close to a four-letter word.
I have add-ons in Firefox that restricts popups as well as scripting to sites I choose. Easy to install, sometimes a hassle with some sites (with multiple scripts).
Dou itashi mashite
Garth Said
Not at all. Realizing profits requires buying and selling costs, which are substantial and wipe out all but extraordinary gains in any market. You cannot and should not treat houses like stocks. Those who bought in the last three years for a multi-year hold will not be happy. — Garth
………………………………………………
Sorry Garth you’re wrong, Canadian Tax and debt fram slaves are stupid, they will just get second jobs to keep the fasad going……………….Granet and hardwood. anything eles in their schooled barins is failure…….
For such a smart guy, he can’t can’t seem to get inside the brain of the peasunts…….
.
Ahhh, the Christmas shopping season is once again upon us: standing in long lines, listening to Little Drummer Boy musak for the umpteenth time, waiting for disinterested teenage store clerks to end their iPhone breaks, buying cheaply made overseas products with outrageous mark ups. A few days after, all will be put by the roadside for the trashmen. What an advanced civiliation we are! Worth fighting for!?! Our glorious way of live!?
http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Securities/Insight/2011/12_-_December/MF_Global_and_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/
MF Global and the great Wall St re-hypothecation scandal
12/7/2011COMMENTS (0)
By Christopher Elias (UK)
(Business Law Currents) A legal loophole in international brokerage regulations means that few, if any, clients of MF Global are likely to get their money back. Although details of the drama are still unfolding, it appears that MF Global and some of its Wall Street counterparts have been actively and aggressively circumventing U.S. securities rules at the expense (quite literally) of their clients.
…
HYPER-HYPOTHECATION
With weak collateral rules and a level of leverage that would make Archimedes tremble, firms have been piling into re-hypothecation activity with startling abandon. A review of filings reveals a staggering level of activity in what may be the world’s largest ever credit bubble.
Engaging in hyper-hypothecation have been Goldman Sachs ($28.17 billion re-hypothecated in 2011), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (re-pledged $72 billion in client assets), Royal Bank of Canada (re-pledged $53.8 billion of $126.7 billion available for re-pledging), Oppenheimer Holdings ($15.3 million), Credit Suisse (CHF 332 billion), Knight Capital Group ($1.17 billion),Interactive Brokers ($14.5 billion), Wells Fargo ($19.6 billion), JP Morgan($546.2 billion) and Morgan Stanley ($410 billion).
Form Man
thanks for confirming my thoughts. We lived on the lake and watched as the smart ones sold at the peak and now watch as the speculators sit, wait and hope. Its been two years since we left and we’re amazed at how many of the same houses are still for sale at their original price.
111 Beach Girl – the government always wins, eventually……
Here’s something for you and 122 Poco’s friend
http://www.walterharder.ca/MarginalTaxRateCalculator.asp
Two things are key to RRSPs 1) tax free growth and 2) having a lower marginal rate when funds are withdrawn.
Poco – your friend cannot leave her RRSP to her kids. It is closed upon death and the estate pays taxes on the entire amount as if it’s income – potentially a huge OUCH.
At 62, your friend can forgo CPP and top up her teachers pension with RRSP withdrawals to no more than what her
working salary was, or to a level where the marignal rate starts to rise steeply ($72K-ish) so as not to reverse the desired effect from (2). She can then delay collecting CPP until the funds are depleted. If she waits until she is 71 she is required to withdraw a certain amount.
Hey, she’s a teacher and should have somebody from her pension plan explain this!
135 Mad Vlad – I remember watching the news when Colin Powell was showing aerial reconnaisance photos of two vehicles carrying long narrow metallic things which were ICBMs according to intel. I thought “Wow! Really?
They look just like tanker trucks to me.”
Did you see the movie “green zone”?
#61 Steve – If you are planning on being invested for the long haul, don’t let the events of a singular day or two, make you consider cashing out.
Look at the big picture. And don’t listen to the media, the sky is not falling, although those headlines do sell papers.
And if you are investing for yield, how would a singluar crappy day in the markets affect the dividend paying investments that you hold.
”You would be surprised how little you come down with colds and flus from simple things like…. ”
washing your hands frequently seems to work great for me
and drinking plenty of fluids during the season sure doesnt hurt. dont seem to get colds .any that do happen are not bad ones. havent had the flu for years
But I am no expert and for sure disciple and gtrz4peace are not experts either. really not.
disciple, it’s funny you mention it – a few months ago, I began taking 1 time release Vit C, and a Vit D tablet daily. I checked the bottles and C is 500, D is 1000u.
Of course I’ve not seen nor needed a doctor for 12 years now – that means no pharma drugs either. I get regular exercise (never set foot in a gym, ever), and eat within reason. Usually take 1 sick day per year, sometimes no days at all.
#148 bill… what’s up? Germs do not cause disease. Your body produces microbes as a consequence of the dis-ease state. Louis Pasteur was a charlatan, a puppet for the elite, and a fraud. He plagiarized and then twisted the work of Andre Bechamp, so as to create a market, and profits.
I know it’s hard to get your mind around this as you’ve been conditioned to believe otherwise, but it was the advent and proliferation of hygienic technology in the 20th century which eradicated and mitigated the severity of most diseases, and not antibiotics alone and especially not because of vaccines, in fact, in spite of them.
Your body responds to stress, and this stress can come in many forms, one of which can be an attack from external microbes, but the disease state does not arise from the attack itself, but instead from your body’s response from that attack. Get it? You control how you react, your immune response is an extension of your own will.
This applies to other areas of life as well. It’s all connected, and certainly I don’t pretend to know how it all works completely, but there are some things I do know, and I share them freely on this blog. Feel free to disagree and I don’t mind your childish responses, that’s fine with me.
Message to 604: it is that simple, many people are doing it… that’s the problem, most couldn’t be bothered to do the research, let alone turn off the TV, get off their sorry butts and actually DO SOMETHING. If you follow my prescription, you will build up the vital compound we call D (not enough sunshine in northern climes) and your body will begin to renew itself. Don’t discount the power of the mind and the “cheerful optimism” as that is the other important ingredient in the medicine.
Canada’s Housing Bubble has surpass the US bubble.
Read:
http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/bubbles-extreme-maker-and-breaker-of.html
disciple – you are so full of it.
spare us please.
#149 TurnerNation… that explains why your posts are among the most informative and entertaining on this blog… you’re not pumped full of mind-altering substances peddled by the pharma cartel, like, bill perhaps, who probably has taken his flu shot and swallowed his anti-depressants. Perhaps he is in the medical field. These witch doctors we call physicians- the one thing they do really well is take commissions on both of these product lines. Healthcare is something that affects us all, and for anyone to attempt to shut anyone else down on this topic without meritorious debate, is very telling indeed.
”bill perhaps, who probably has taken his flu shot and swallowed his anti-depressants.”
uh no havent had a flu shot as I dont often get the flu. or colds
however your drivel might be the tipping point for anti depressants.
”anyone to attempt to shut anyone else down on this topic without meritorious debate, is very telling indeed.”
well if you could debate with merit it would be a help.
but unfortunately the bizzarre ingredients you digest seem to have given the debate a lack of merit on your side.
say isnt this a forum for real estate?why dont you go to a forum that espouses your thoughts instead of here?
thanks in advance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fads_and_Fallacies_in_the_Name_of_Science
As I recall someone has already suggested to you to read this book.
why not give it a go this time?
I know that this is totally off topic. Planned on going out this aft. but it’s so windy and I’m feeling a little down today.
I read Garth’s posts because he is such a fabulous writer. But, then I question why I actually bother to read some of the blawg dogs. I keep informed about what’s happening in Canada & the world and actually do learn from some of the posters.
My story – I only ever achieved 2nd yr university (mature student at night) . I had a work ethic since 12 and did fairly well.
I was an IT business analyst and several years before I retired worked on a major new systems development methodology program (System House) and used a Software Engineering Program. (Forget the name of it now.) My boss & I attended a 3 day training session in Minn.. We had never even used a mouse. We both came back & didn’t know what we were doing. We had to learn quickly. Unfortunately, our stupid govt. chose a huge project to test the methodology and the use of the software engineering program. I had never before written as detailed business specs for a programmer to implement. Anywho, during that 2+ year project, I also took care of the database, etc. Then I created & delivered teaching programs for other IT people within the govt. After many millions spent on this, the govt. scrapped it because the chosen SFE program could not do reverse engineering. And then I spent a few years working on other programs that never saw the day of light. And the guys who chose those programs, etc. were promoted. Unbelieveably frustrating. So, as soon as I could I retired.
Rant off.
your only right call in the last 2 years…calling your blog miserable.
At least get it right. Pathetic. — Garth
#154 bill…”well if you could debate with merit it would be a help. but unfortunately the bizzarre ingredients you digest seem to have given the debate a lack of merit on your side.”
A) what bizarre ingredients?
B) what debate? You told me an anecdote about your wife…?
And Desmond Dekker and War of the World (part 1) are related to RE… how? Or was that another “bill”? I guess it is a common name…
Ah yes, Martin Gardner, thanks for the Wiki link. A Big Oil clansman, a magician, and a purveyor of riddles and puzzles. Publicly opposing spirituality, while privately pursuing it. bill, if Gardner’s drivel is your bible, per se, you are certainly lost.
Mr. Turner -you make the case for Bank preferrers and yet some naysayers have concerns about this:
Re-hypothecation occurs when a bank or broker re-uses collateral posted by clients, such as hedge funds, to back the broker’s own trades and borrowings. The practice of re-hypothecation runs into the trillions of dollars and is perfectly legal. It is justified by brokers on the basis that it is a capital efficient way of financing their operations much to the chagrin of hedge funds.
If this is the case – MF Global might be the start of a nasty trend – or is this all smoke?
ingestion of bizzarre ingredients is the only explanation I could come up with.
what does cause this constant warning of the dangers from doctors come from then?
believe it or not what we are having is a debate.
well better lost than found by you.
good luck with your spiritual quest there disciple.
I am quite suprised you cant see the link between real estate and desmond and niall . peer more closely at the problem and maybe you will become enlightened.