The unstuck

Brad says that “after much searching” he and his wife just bought an 1,800-square-foot townhouse near the downtown of Kelowna. “The place cost the seller $850,000 four years ago when it was new,” he says, “and we paid $250,000 less than this.”  So far, so good. Trendy Kelowna, at 30% off. More proof of what happens when horny people lose their minds. “Not sure if this is the bottom, but since we will likely retire there in a few years, it’s not as critical.”

Whoa, Brad, baby. You spent six hundred grand in a fading BC resort town where there’s 10 cm of snow, and you’re not moving in?

“I’d appreciate your take on the Kelowna market – do you see it nearing the bottom?   We currently live in a paid for downtown Calgary townhouse and we know that much of the Kelowna market is driven by Calgary which seems to be stable and even upwardly trending so far. We are very pleased with the Kelowna unit and the area but appreciate your candor – financially were we nuts?”

Yes.

I sure hope you have a couple of million stashed in an investment account somewhere because you’ve just made a major pre-retirement blunder. It’s that classic bear trap. Sure, it might look like a bargain compared to what the last dink paid, but in reality Kelowna’s plagued with huge oversupply, comatose economy, shrinking demand, and more wrinkly, old people per foot than should be allowed. Look deep into Lake Okanagan. There’s your bottom.

But this may not be the major problem. For that let’s turn to achy-breaky Cowtown.

In case you hadn’t noticed, Brad, the world’s in a funk which guarantees slow growth, a major retrenchment in Europe, structural unemployment in America, cascading demand and weaker commodity prices. Think oil. Many believe asset deflation could push crude prices down to the $80 range (or lower) and keep them there for some time. Meanwhile Keystone is kaput, and it seems the Yanks would rather gamble with another offshore disaster in the Gulf than give in to the ‘dirty oil’ lobby from frozen Alberta.

Calgary’s an over-priced regional centre. The average SFH at $455,399 compares with $207,353 in Dallas. Both cities have about a million people, and I hear they have oil, too. The Canadian premium placed on housing is unreasonable, unrealistic and unsustainable. Calgary prices may still be running lower than the peak three years ago, but to say the market is trending up is wildly optimistic. With a few years to go before you retire, you may have erred on both ends of a real estate play.

But don’t just take my word on Alberta real estate. Let’s saddle up and mosey 105 km down the TransCan to another fabled resort town, Canmore. Here a lot of other deluded people have bought into the real estate myth. In a burg of 9,000 people there are 350 realtors, 380 MLS listings and another hundred units currently being built. Like Kelowna, the key industries are tourism and condos. Both now suck.

Jenna lives there. Here’s her report: “The town condo market is now in freefall, the condos that were built in abundance during the peak can’t be given away at $200k. One development is now back to the pricing they were at in 2002 and they have only sold 2 condos since spring.  There are several developments like this all next to each other in the same boat.

“However, the three sisters development, 7 miles from town, is in worse shape, condos sold a few years ago for $740k for a 970ft, 2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows). These now underwater by about $500k, even to have a chance of selling. Many of these are in the shadow of abandoned projects, tarp and wire fencing dominating the area devoid of residents. Rental prices for these places are about $1000 per month, if they can find tenants….. These “fine estates” have a long way to drop yet….. We were lucky, we just sold our place and are now being “smug renters” renting a comparable place for half the cost of owning.  It was a lucky escape.”

And how did townhouses in Kelowna get to be $850,000, while condos in Canmore surged to $740,000?

Cheap money, lax lending, government meddling, all leading to a society where everyone felt entitled. Where the dream of home ownership became a reality, and where no family was barred entry merely because they could not afford.

The laws of economics were unfair. So they were repealed. Prices soared in Kelowna and Canmore as they did in Phoenix and Miami. But the laws are back. And coming soon to your town.

In Britain yesterday the prime minister fretted that banks, being prudent as Europe melts, are now demanding homebuyers have downpayments of 20%. “The housing market has got stuck,” said David Cameron. “We are determined as a government to unstick that market, to get the market moving.”

And so they pulled a Canada. The government will guarantee the loans of first-time buyers with just 5% down, allowing them to get 95% mortgages, and purposefully inflating the real estate market.

“You always remember that moment, if you’ve done it, when you get that key and you walk into your first flat, it’s a magic moment,” he said. “It’s a moment I want everyone in this country to have, not just better-off people. The dream of home ownership is something that should be achievable for everyone.”

We are so screwed.

191 comments ↓

#1 MarcFromOttawa on 11.21.11 at 9:53 pm

1st

What’s going on with the TSX?!

#2 oslec on 11.21.11 at 9:56 pm

first maybe????

#3 Van guy waiting on 11.21.11 at 10:06 pm

We are not screwed until Van and GTA is affected. Who cares about the boonies.

#4 LH on 11.21.11 at 10:06 pm

Numero Uno?

#5 LH on 11.21.11 at 10:07 pm

The 99% is so screwed

#6 I'm stupid on 11.21.11 at 10:15 pm

Should I buy a home in London?

#7 Jimbo on 11.21.11 at 10:18 pm

Here’s my take on what is happening…

The higher net-worth individuals, who actually have something to lose, have been getting very nervous in the last few months and have been bailing. Many I know are well aware of the risk out there and are switching from “make money” mode to “preserve wealth” mode. There is no way these people are going to be getting into bidding wars on overpriced real estate anymore. Their days of driving up real estate prices is OVER.

Then there are the clueless masses, comfortable with significant debt, who have no clue about the perfect storm that is threatening their financial security. Everything they know about the world is fed to them through biased news sound bites on the radio and TV. And all they care about is the prime rate. They continue to drool over real-estate, ignoring the wealthy who are hitting the bid and getting out.

I think the masses are going to be facing a financial bloodbath. But maybe I’m completely wrong.

#8 Gand on 11.21.11 at 10:18 pm

The insanity never ends
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/253638/20111122/canadian-housing-market-refusing-stall.htm

#9 Mr. Lee on 11.21.11 at 10:19 pm

Mr. Turner, please do not chide Brad as he is just repeating the same mantra in last Saturday’s Herald Home section. Brad et al, have to believe as the reality of the situation is far too dire. You have spoken on on the topic of fundamentals numerous times, and yet that same mistake are made. Now, from what you have written, the Brits are going down then same governmental interferance road. In a country where the financial situation is a bit better than the “piggs”. Well, that is like taking an alcoholic on a pub crawl. Good luck to GB and better luck to us.

#10 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.21.11 at 10:21 pm

And so they pulled a Canada.

Did they secretly hire Harper and Flaherty to run a renovation-based economic action plan?

#11 Stasis on 11.21.11 at 10:22 pm

And the other shoe drops…http://www.cnbc.com/id/45393635

Btw my real estate pal in Victoria… Nice guy.. not a Realtard by any stretch.

Diligently sat in an open house for two days… an inexpensive condo in a great downtown Victoria location.. not a one person showed up.

Go Figure

#12 S on 11.21.11 at 10:23 pm

Calling a top in Wetcouver
Vancouver seems to reaching its top–the Sun (“rain” would be accurate), Chek, Global, all on the Realtor dole, ran a piece yesterday on a 30 mill “mansion” (house). They interviewed people on the street who were upset at the change that big money brings. Same house (same owners) was selling for 17 mill last year. Thing is, no one questioned whether the house is acutally worth this or even that someone would buy it for that–everyone assumes that the asking price is the selling price (or sells for more). When the average joe is this deluded you can be sure the bubble is at its top; like getting stock tips in the late 20s from the grocery clerk. You can feed people drivel; nationwide mental illness is the result if too many people believe it.
http://www.vancouversun.com/estore/Vancouver+mansion+sale+million/5735598/story.html

#13 eviee1973 on 11.21.11 at 10:25 pm

The Calgary Herald said in Sunday’s paper that there is lots of money to be made from rental properties in Edmonton, it must the absolute truth as there was no mention of Remax, or the CRA.

#14 Steven Rowlandson on 11.21.11 at 10:30 pm

Just imagine the wonderfull world of real estate if fractional reserve banking was outlawed or curtailed and if investors were needed to supply capital for mortgage lending particularly in the light of todays price levels.
The term real estate would be considered profanity for quite some time I think.

#15 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 11.21.11 at 10:34 pm

WASTE AND DELUSION, COTTAGE STYLE

Vacation cottages and condos that are empty most of the year are ultimately a huge waste of housing.

People buy these things because with expected price appreciation they figure they can basically have the use of a condo or cottage for free.

Ultimately, there is a cost to that second house and it was nonsense to think the cost would always be passed along to the next buyer.

Once you realise that the price of the cottage or condo might not rise, you realise that you are paying property tax and a mortgage (or have tied up your money) and insurance and you are stuck with an expensive little unit that forces you to vacation in the same place every year.

Then, to your horror, you realise that the value of the thing might even SINK. Like a stone. Oh the humanity…

Mr. Market recognises your wasteful ways and is now about to teach you a lesson. Class is in session. I hope you have NOT unkowingly paid your tuition.

#16 TaxHaven on 11.21.11 at 10:34 pm

Good grief…! Not only Kelowna, but many, many towns and cities in Canada no longer have any economic rationale.

They shouldn’t even exist. They have few or no resource industries. They don’t produce apples, coal, fish, lumber or even manufacturing… They are chock-full of unproductive consuming pensioners, government employees, welfare recipients of various shades, low-income young families renting and owners of businesses which sell stuff to one another…

The first HINT, the first inkling of government austerity in Canada will mean economic winter for many communities for a long time.

Ideas to make these places grow centre always around increasing tourism. Or attracting more government-funded facilities: seniors’ care, medical facilities, more grant money for this or that. Beautification schemes for the downtown, to attract more tourism money, more shoppers buying more stuff…cheaper money to kickstart more housing (even amid a glut).

Just maybe there is OVERCAPACITY. Just maybe we have reached PEAK DEBT. Just maybe there is no more spendable wealth out there, even though they can pump in as much “money” as they like.

The adage, “every time a new restaurant opens, another one closes” now applies to the entire economy.

#17 ottawa pete on 11.21.11 at 10:35 pm

Here’s a link to a video of Cameron outlining the scheme:

http://tinyurl.com/7fknfgx

But note the inclusion of “stuck sites” where the government will loan money to developers to build homes on land they already own and the developers will pay back the goverment when the houses are sold…notice the fellow in the background nodding (enthusiatically) when Cameron gets to this aspect of the scheme.

#18 TheRealTruth on 11.21.11 at 10:36 pm

#3 van Guy Waiting

It is interesting that population growth in Vancouver and Toronto is never discussed by the Author of this blog. Future political apirations?? who knows.

Vancouver and Toronto will grow by more than 10,000 people a month. So, by spring that is an additional 60,000+ people minimum into these two cities. This puts pressure on rental vacancy rates and drives RE. Supply and Demand!

Consider this: In BC, the population will grow by about 120,000 people total from now until 2060 (yes 50 years) IF there is zero inmigration (overseas and domestic) and if fertility rates remain the same.

So why are the billionaires and millionaires still investing in RE megaprojects ?? oh yeah, they’re sheep, greaterfools, etc.

Boonies will suffer because of zero population growth and Vancouver and Toronto will keep on humming. It’s immigration stupid!

#19 Hicksville Alberta on 11.21.11 at 10:45 pm

Speaking of Calgreedy, they are just in the process of duking out this years budget at something like $ 8.7 Billion with increases over the next three years at about 5.5% compounded annually.

By my reckoning with about one million people that works out to about $ 8,700 per person per year.

The institutionalized high teck professional bureaucracy is well entrenched everywhere in spades and the only solution is to Tune In; Turn Off; and Drop Out of this whole Gig.

That is exactly why i have chosen to live in a nice quiet place like Hicksville.

AS an aside, does anyone here really know how long it takes to earn and save a mere pittance of say $ 500,000 or a $ 1,000,000 after taxes (everywhere) and living costs?

#20 NFN_NLN on 11.21.11 at 10:46 pm

With regard to the Keystone pipeline, the US gets the majority of it’s oil from Canada. If it isn’t coming by pipeline it is coming by some other means; but it is still coming. I would figure a static contained pipe would be LESS risky than tanker or rail.

Obama took the issue off the table until AFTER the election because he didn’t want to anger UNIONS over those jobs or ENVIRONMENTALISTS over the potential impact. This is a coward move, but it was politically savvy.

Is there any doubt that the pipeline will be green-lit AFTER the election regardless of who is president? In other words doesn’t TRP make sense as buy? The Enbridge pipeline to the West coast doesn’t make as much economic sense.

Any opinions?

#21 Ruben on 11.21.11 at 10:48 pm

Just FYI Garth–

Lake Okanagan is so deep in some spots it effectively does not have a bottom. This fuels the speculation that OKLake is connected to Loch Ness with a tunnel and Nessie/Ogopogo swims back and forth.

#22 Paul on 11.21.11 at 10:56 pm

Kelowna is counting on this old guy..71 I think to get things going again.

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-67522-1-.htm#67522

#23 sluggo on 11.21.11 at 10:57 pm

I wonder how much of the 2007 ABCP that were swapped out through IMPP and various RPAs were structured similar to MF Globals repo to maturity derivatives. Perhaps Carney and Corzine used a similar playbook.

http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/MFGR.pdf

#24 pjwlk on 11.21.11 at 11:01 pm

I sent an email to my brother telling him that my wife and I are looking for a bigger home to rent. Even after suffering a 10 year set-back in the value of his own home during the 90s… this was his response…lol

“Any way buy a house, since you have held out prices have rose 20% there is no end in site

There will be no market crash as I said 4 years ago – buy buy buy if you find something you like

But you have your own way of thinking and that’s fine, hope you find something “

#25 LJ on 11.21.11 at 11:07 pm

Stick a fork in it: it’s done.

The crude prices are as unstable as the rest of the markets. It was just over 6 weeks ago that we were bathing in $75 WTI crude (gas at $1.14 – in Calgary). Today we are hovering just under $100 (gas at $1.04 – same city). Next stop, probably back into the 80’s.

The Alberta provincial government, under new leadership, announced today that we will run a $3.1 Billion deficit this year and more to come next year.

I don’t think that the oil companies are going to chase the price any more – especially since there is not current capacity in the pipelines to ship it. And, there is the constant threat of increased royalties to help bail our provincial (and federal) government out.

Oh yeah, there is also an ongoing diesel fuel shortage in Western Canada….. Go figure.

#26 Humpty Dumpty on 11.21.11 at 11:10 pm

Screwed is an understatement G….

The untouchables!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/what-price-the-new-democracy-goldman-sachs-conquers-europe-6264091.html#

Some of Carney’s friends…..

#27 Kenny vs. Spenny on 11.21.11 at 11:16 pm

Jimbo #7
You hit the nail right on the head. Only stupid money buying now, hence the lower priced crack shacks.

#28 John on 11.21.11 at 11:18 pm

#18, you’re an idiot. Total population growth in the Vancouver area is an anemic 1.25 – 1.5% and has been for years. Compare that to say, Phoenix, at 4%+. Now, thanks to our insane real estate prices and deck of cards economy, we are in a net loss position with intra-province migration. There are only about 40,000 persons per year added to the whole province of BC. Maybe its because we’re running out of land………………………

#29 Marc L on 11.21.11 at 11:22 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11317873&PidKey=-1644269530

#30 Junius on 11.21.11 at 11:32 pm

#18 TheNotSoRealTruth,

Are you ever going to stop posting this nonsense about how immigration will keep pushing prices up. Was the name change to protect the ignorant?

#31 The thing in the basement on 11.21.11 at 11:36 pm

Approx 1.2M in metro Clagary, 6.5M in Dallas-Ft Worth. 4th largest metro pop in US, and largest with no navigable waterway to coast. Just what were we comparing?

Also, over 500 hits on Kelowna condos over $200K. That’s a LOT of product. DA has some work to do.

#32 City Slicker on 11.21.11 at 11:46 pm

“You always remember that moment, if you’ve done it, when you get that key and you walk into your first flat, it’s a magic moment,” he said. “It’s a moment I want everyone in this country to have, not just better-off people. The dream of home ownership is something that should be achievable for everyone.

These were almost exactly George Bush’s words in 2004-2005 I believe.

#33 renters rule on 11.21.11 at 11:50 pm

TheRealTruth = the real problem.

Guessing you have multiple “investment properties” in Van.

You are going to get smoked. Worst part is, you read this blog and you still don’t get it…..

#34 Junius on 11.21.11 at 11:52 pm

What is with these so-called Conservative Governments and their proclivity for Ponzi schemes? The English should be furious. Well, at least we know where all the HAM money will go now.

Is London now “The Best Place on Earth”?

#35 Fleabitten Monkey on 11.21.11 at 11:56 pm

Cameron??? You gotta be kidding me….wasn’t it Bush who said he wanted to create an ownership society. Didn’t he say something like wanting to allow everyone to be able to say, this is my property or something like that. I can’t believe it…something wicked this way comes. Gonna be baaad…

#36 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.22.11 at 12:12 am

From “Sovereign Man” posted last Friday:

Denver based Barnhardt Capital Management is a futures brokerage firm that focuses on agriculture, round-the-clock broker access, and inexpensive commissions. At least, it used to be.

Barnhardt shuttered its operations yesterday after six-years in the business. The firm’s founder Ann Barnhardt posted the reasons online for the entire world to see:

“I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets, because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse.”

Ms. Barnhardt further explains that markets are completely fractured… that the rule of law in the United States no longer exists. She decries Jon Corzine of MF Global for having outright stolen customer funds, and various exchanges and government regulators for having frozen out customer accounts as a result.

Given that the entire industry is “suicidally-leveraged” and exposed to “European sovereign junk debt,” Barnhardt recommends that ALL customers “withdraw from all of the markets as soon as possible so that they have the best chance of protecting themselves and their equity.”

#37 nonplused on 11.22.11 at 12:14 am

Well Garth, you’ll be happy to hear, nonplused is signing off. I (perhaps stupidly) also bought a house on the weekend. We’re tired of enduring backhoes digging up stuff in the yard in this old place we’re renting. Don’t worry, I’ll still be reading your posts, but I bet my interest will turn more to the economic topics you cover.

I want to thank you for all your commentary over the years. I think the advice has been good. I am mostly following your rules. The new house represents about 40% of my net worth and I am 43. I will pay for it cash for now (love that liquidity advice!), and maybe look at financing to take advantage of some of your strategies like an RRSP mortgage once we are settled in and I have some time.

I am under no illusions that the bottom is in for housing, but I did try to “vultch”. The house is really quite nice, but the owners had listed it as if it was spring 2007, so it languished on the market for many months and several sizable price reductions. The listing had “gone stale”, as they say. One more big price reduction put it in the range where I would consider it, and low and behold it was already vacant, so we knew the seller was motivated. I took another 9% off the price but short possession and only an inspection for conditions. I thought that would be the end of it, they would reject it, but low and behold they tried to meet me halfway. The wife was really in love with the house, the area, and all that granite, stucco, landscaping and all that, so I got them to throw in the tractor and met at the magic half way point. After all we were talking about one year’s rent at this point, and I’ll be there a year I figure!

I am pretty happy with the house even though I know it is going to cost me money to sell it if we have to move for some reason in the next 5 years. But compared to the price of a condo in Kelowna? Wow. I have 3700 feet of developed space, 4 bedrooms, walkout basement, a heated triple, and top notch finishing including a tile roof and Sub Zero fridge, walking distance to school, and a tractor, and it wasn’t that much more than a condo. Only 5 minutes from town too.

PS the market for the higher end stuff isn’t as strong as they say. I got done at about 30% off the peak prices of 2007, I figure. But I am obviously also exercising cognitive dissidence to justify buying now, just as the knife is starting to fall.

Anyway, thanks for all the advice over the years Garth! I figure you saved me at least six figures even after paying the rent. Well worth the $20 each I paid for your books. And I got a way nicer house for what the same money would have bought even last year, so thanks for that too.

And now I can finally mount those stupid solar panels I bought from you. Talk about something that’s gone down 30%. You can’t sell them new in the box for that, as they are all over the net for less. I did make use of the Power Hub a few times though, as I was working from home for a while and it kept my computers and connection working through 2 separate 8 hour interruptions, so it paid for itself at $150 an hour no problem.

Anyway, keep blogging! I’ll still be reading but cognitive dissidence will keep me from caring much about house prices. I am actually relieved a bit about that.

#38 45north on 11.22.11 at 12:14 am

pjwik: his brother said: Any way buy a house, since you have held out prices have risen 20% there is no end in site

I would say that family who have experience in the US readily admit that house prices have fallen and they expect the same in Canada. Family who have no experience in the US expect Canadian house prices will continue to rise. Counting their chickens before they hatch.

#39 Stevenson on 11.22.11 at 12:19 am

Screwed? Yeah if you live in Winnipeg and deadmonton then you’re screwed either way. Gta and Vancouver is what everyone thinks is overpriced so let’s not kid yourselves. I can predict the future too. If its just a waiting game then I think one day you will all wake up and realize you should of bought property earlier. No wait, that already happened.

#40 Debtisforever on 11.22.11 at 12:21 am

$600k for a townhouse in Kelowna? Wow, that guy really got screwed. Kelowna’s going down. And bad.

#41 rp1 on 11.22.11 at 12:22 am

Garth, what you describe is a bull trap. Bulls are lured into a declining market, believing the worst is over. A bear trap occurs when declines prove temporary, i.e. bears expect further declines so they miss a chance to buy before a big move higher.

#42 Bailing in BC on 11.22.11 at 12:25 am

TaxHaven #16

What a post. So simple and so true.

Why did the word Squamish float around my head looking for something to attached to as I read it?

#43 U-The Man on 11.22.11 at 12:30 am

Conservative government realy=THE NEW HARPER DEMOCRATIC PARTY. No true conservative government would have encouraged the lax lending policies of the Banks and practices of CMHC .Encouraging and enabling people with no money to buy houses is un Conservative. Diefenbaker is rolling in his grave as is Margaret Thatcher in GB.

#44 TaxHaven on 11.22.11 at 12:34 am

Having just returned to Canada after spending 21 years in Asia, it’s no wonder at all how so many Canadians are such passive, trusting herd-followers.

They believe in insurance. Life. Fire. Theft. Dental. Public health insurance.

They trust professionals – accountants, lawyers, cops, doctors (unquestioningly!), dentists, politicians (of their favoured party), teachers, “realtors”, Certified Investment Professionals.

They abhor risk. Government must test & guarantee everything: meat, investments, fire alarms – everything. Everyone must succeed. None must be left behind. Everyone is equal. Social “justice” is our goal. “Canadian values” exist. Canada is a respected country internationally because of this, it is believed.

Negativism is bad! Obey the rules. Good citizens follow the law – always – because it’s GOOD for you! Don’t be antisocial. Don’t rock the boat. Don’t be different.

Then I read that good slaves don’t even need slave-masters: http://lewrockwell.com/berwick/berwick21.1.html

“Canadians, as a whole, are excellent slaves. They barely need any police or government to keep them in line because they absolutely love all the rules or are at least completely oblivious to their own enslavement. Last night I offered to buy a waitress a drink. She grimaced, “I’d love to but I can’t.” I asked her why. She told me, “It’s illegal”, and then pointed up to one of numerous cameras that were watching her.”

Yes, the “unfair” laws of economics were repealed. And Canadians by and large cheered. And piled one after another into debt.

#45 pjwlk on 11.22.11 at 12:43 am

Yesterday we drove through north Burlington (Ontario) along the coveted “Ceder Springs Rd.” area heading towards Milton. I was stunned to see how many “for sale” signs had popped up since my last trip a few weeks ago on the same road. I thought maybe property taxes had jumped up or something. The one thing in common is that all of the homes are over $700k. Looks like not much is moving.

On another note, a family friend mentioned today that she has her cottage up for sale and that there hasn’t been any bites since it was listed in August. The cottage is on leased land inside the Saugeen Indian reserve and right on the shores of Lake Huron. Beautiful spot. I had a look on MLS and found a ton more cottages in the same area for sale. Word has it that the structure of the lease agreements is changing and it looks like people are treating the whole thing like the plague.

#46 jess on 11.22.11 at 12:50 am

these investors are really pissed

http://ukcapitalinvestmentsfraud.com/the-scams.php

This site has been created by a group of 100+ international investors who individually invested large sums of personal money into projects that UKCIG sold from 2006-08, and continue to sell through local companies that have appeared and disappeared such as Berkeley Estates and Portmill Estates. These developments were contractually sold with different completion dates, and still 2 years after some of these deadlines have long passed the projects have not even been started. Despite many investors in the group visiting Dubai and the Emirates, contacting local authorities, politicians, police, embassies, pursuing legal investigations with solicitors and barristers, FSA authorities, you name it we have contacted them to try and get some answers, over the past two years we have consistently been met with a wall of silence to the simple questions A. what will happen with these developments, continued legitimacy of the company, if it actually still exists and B. where our personal money is for the projects METROPOLIS LOFTS, THE CAVENDISH and MARINA STAR that we all invested into. We continue (as we have for 2 years) to receive no answers or explanations from UKCIG, RERA, ARRA, TAMWEEL, NAKHEEL or any other ‘organisations’ that we repeatedly attempt dialogue with….

UK Land Investments
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/investigations/2011/11/-this-is-bally-chohan.html

#47 GrimWeeper on 11.22.11 at 12:51 am

Brad and his wife appear to be suffering with a well-deserved case of buyer’s remorse. Evidently they have more money than brains; hence, their inability to comprehend a single thing about real estate from Garth’s blog.

Of course they’re nuts or they wouldn’t be seeking Garth’s opinions about Kelowna’s real estate market at this late stage of the game.

Nuts deserve to lose their nuts.

#48 Puertoricanmama on 11.22.11 at 12:53 am

GOD created Earth for one purpose; to put its natural resources at disposal for HIS greatest creation: MAN. Oil being a creation of our Heavenly GOD, we must continue to harvest it for global nourishment. Having said this, the center of this great country, Alberta, will continue to be the center of wealth and with it great real estate investment returns are guaranteed. Small hiccups causing lower real estate prices should not be interpreted as negative but instead be seen as sweet flowers that will attract the bees in the Spring to produce higher real estate prices throughout Alberta and our beautiful country. Keep the faith and God Bless All of You.

#49 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.22.11 at 1:04 am


“The unstuck. And so they pulled a Canada. Cheap money, lax lending, government meddling, all leading to a society where everyone felt entitled. financially were we nuts? Yes. We are so screwed.”

That is a concise summary of the post, thrown together in a blender and mixed at high speed for a few years. Probably won’t resemble much of anything by the time it’s all finished.

To go with that, 4Closuress in Canada Starts automatically. Another advertising venue to get people to part with their money. Add to that, the temps. are rising 2nite here, so there won’t be any need for Wooly Bullies.
*
23:01 clip + text. China banks use gold as money; Spain biting the dust; Boris Johnson Subhead says what could happen to the EU if Cameron continues meddling; 6:45 clip Soros and Obomba are students of Marx, a commie; Top 0.1% earn half of all capital gains.

<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-stress-high-in-our-indicators-bond.htmlCDS and Bonds, Currency Controls, US Debt Downgrades, Didn’t Happen, says David Rosenberg, Emperor Vespasian, Uncontained, To paraphrase Garth, it’s over,
*
Some of you will recall the killer rabbit in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. A little bigger, but just as effective; War on Terror or a global crusade against Islam? Garbage is not exclusive to the finaancial system, but to countries as well; Spies The west does like to provoke; Caspian Sea Lotsa good stuff in the depths; Mandatory Vaccines? Count me out; Super Joke a.k.a. the Super Committee.

#50 Chris on 11.22.11 at 1:11 am

Canmore down $500K. I call b.s. on that. I drove through there a week ago on my way home from skiing at Nakiska. There were no starving realtors, no massive amounts of “For Sale” signs. Nothing but a beautiful snow covered town with the first Christmas lights just being put up… The down 70% doesn’t add up Garth.

Here’s a thought. For the amount of doom and gloom that you and others with similar blogs are spreading, and the amount of misinformation too, you have got to be at least equalling all the sunshine the pumpers shine up people’s orifices… Get me some hard stats not bsnecdoctals from people like Jenna. Same goes for your assessment of Calgary. I hate to tell you, but October was the strongest month in a long time here, contrary to what you would tell others.

#51 Okanagan Renter on 11.22.11 at 1:23 am

I already see the writing on the wall for K-town from the falling prices for condo rentals. Kijiji shows price drops in nearly all categories since I started keeping track a few months ago. By the time my lease expires next year I just may pressure my hapless landlady to drop my monthlies, or else. With so many fine units to choose from why limit myself to a “luxury” unit in a building that doesn’t fix the broken cardio machines in the exercise room? Schadenfreude may be a dirty word, but boy it feels good sometimes.

Heartless? Perhaps. But it is the age of the “smug renter” after all. We’ve been putting up with smug home owners ridiculing us for renting for at least 15 years. So excuse me if I get a chuckle now that the party is over for the housing fiends. No worries though, I will join you as soon as prices are slashed by the RE Freddie Krueger, Herr Interrrrest Rrrrratesssss.

#52 Stasis on 11.22.11 at 1:25 am

It really is just this easy to understand.

keiner, keiner kennt die Antwort,
auf alle, deine Fragen,

Du musst nur verstehen, verstehen:
wir ernten, was wir säen.

If your education or life experience fails translating the German there is google translate.

credit: Fantaschtischen Vier Stuttgart, Germany.

#53 Kelvinator on 11.22.11 at 1:32 am

#18 Realtruth

You might want to check actual statistics, Vancouver had negative growth this year, that means more people left than “immigrated”.

Growth is so 2010.

#54 Kilby on 11.22.11 at 1:42 am

#18. TheReal Truth (according to ???)

10,000 people per month? Empty condos all over Vancouver with nobody to buy them. We are experiencing, I believe, a net migration OUT of Vancouver.

#55 CalgaryBoy on 11.22.11 at 1:52 am

Great post! I love reading your blog, especially when you talk about Calgary!

#56 Left coast dbags on 11.22.11 at 1:52 am

#18
I call phooey on your made up stats about Vancouver. We are most definitely not adding 120,000 a year here. With your “consider this” statement, you sound like a Jeff Bridges voiceover of a Duracell commercial.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkq0m7EIPCM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Is this the population explosion you were talking about?

http://vancouver.ca/commsvcs/planning/stats/futurepopgrowth/index.htm

#57 Rich Renter on 11.22.11 at 2:11 am

House up the street here in Calgary, was listed at 369K in the summer now back on the market with new kitchen appliances, fresh paint and polished floor boards for 429K. Still crazy east of the rockies.

#58 BPOE on 11.22.11 at 2:15 am

Iron fist on the World’s tiller Vancouver plows ahead. People pay top dollar because it feels so good to be an owner in BPOE. There is nothing better in the world than Vancouver home ownership and that’s a FACT. Funny thing is the negative posters here hope Vancouver drops so they can BUY. No poster here is interested in renting. No reasonable person is interested in renting. What renters want is lower BPOE prices not long term renting and that’s a FACT

#59 These pretzels are making me thirsty on 11.22.11 at 2:28 am

#18

You must be a realtor.
I have lived in many different countries and different continents.

Vancouver and Toronto are NOT the “center” of the universe. There are a many, many cities and countries in the world that people want to move to, and are quite better than Van and Toronto. These are the cities and countries where the RE has gone down despite better fundamentals.

I am a Canadian and I love Canada for many reasons but, puhleeeeeeeeze, get a grip. How delusional have we become?? Apart from the giant money-laundering scheme from overseas to domestic drug cartels to unsuspecting 20 years olds being approve for close to a million dollar mortgages, Vancouver RE has become a giant ponzi-scheme.

This will not end well for Vancouver. But who really cares. The damn city does not even have a damn highway to the airport!!!

#60 bubu on 11.22.11 at 2:52 am

Estimated median household income in 2009: $39,829 (it was $37,628 in 2000)
Dallas:

$39,829
Texas:

$48,259

Read more: http://www.city-data.com/city/Dallas-Texas.html#ixzz1ePkeeUEF

As I said… considering AB has higher taxes but free health care I think that is a wash…

So double income, double price for the houses in AB…

Garth, your blog looks like the other extreme…. I know things are bad but not at the level you try to describe unless you refer to BC or Toronto….

#61 Not Wondering Anymore on 11.22.11 at 3:07 am

Those were the USA’s Alan Greenspan’s exact words, with regard to implementing these “home ownership for everyone” strategies, and look where it got them.

Does Cameron (and Flaherty) not compare events in this global economy,when deciding current policy for their countries?

#62 TheRealTruth on 11.22.11 at 4:33 am

#28 John…

Dear John,

I guess I am an idiot…afterall my views on RE in Vancity have rewarded me handsomely $$ over the last few years!

And you?

You just keep believing what you will, I’m sure it has rewarded you in some ways.

#63 Dorothy on 11.22.11 at 4:39 am

With each passing day comes ever more bad economic news. The world appears to be in political and economic turmoil, and no-one seems to know for sure how it’s all going to end.

In the midst of all this mayhem, worrying about whether or not we’re going to have a housing crash seems to be a little silly, because I truly believe there’s a strong possibility that the price of housing could end up being the least of our worries.

Frankly, if I have a roof over my head (rented or bought, I don’t much care which), food on my table, and a secure job, I’ll be a happy individual. But right now, with the world the way it is, I’m not entirely sure I can count on ANY of those things in future. I’m not sure any of us can; not unless you happen to be one of the fortunate 1%.

I think the “Occupy” movement is right to try to effect change; but I fear they may be too late to be successful.
Garth is right when he says “this won’t end well”, but it is applicable to much more than just housing.

We are so screwed, although many of us don’t yet realize it!

#64 betamax on 11.22.11 at 4:42 am

#18 TheRealDelusion: “Vancouver and Toronto will keep on humming. It’s immigration stupid!”

Where have I heard that before? Oh yah, Florida.

#65 TheRealTruth on 11.22.11 at 4:43 am

Also #28 John…

Math lesson. Free for you!

You say 1.5% growth. Well GTA plus Metro Vancouver’s population is about 8,000,000. 1.5% of that is 120,000 people per year.

Now the hard part. Divide that by 2 to get figures for half a year. Coincidentally that is also 6 months. So by your numbers, the population growth of Van and TO will be 60,000 by spring.

And what does it say in my original post. Enough said son.

#66 Michelle on 11.22.11 at 5:02 am

@ #189 Kilby and #188 Harlee (previous day’s post)

“I was a girl” ???

Kilby, Harlee was talking about “Real Men” and Canadian winters. I was a 9 yo girl when we moved to Churchill Falls Labrador (for the Hydro-electric construction project there).
When we kids got dressed to play outside in the winter, we’d have to wear multiple layers of thermal socks, underwear, gloves…and then our mother would zip us up in our snowsuit with a wool hat under the hood. Finally she’d jam our ski mitts onto our gloved hands, and then wrap a scarf twice around our faces. You could only see from a small slit between the scarf. Then we’d toddle out into the snow with our arms sticking stiffly out from our sides to play :)

People had company-issued cars which they’d have to plug into a heat block so that the engines would start in the morning. One day my dad got into his car and put his gloved hands on the steering wheel and it instantly shattered into pieces in his hands (it was so cold). That was kinda cool to see :)

Harlee, if you go visit Labrador, make sure it’s later in the summer when the blackflies aren’t so bad. There’s a reason they call Labrador “The land God gave to Cain.”

#67 Onemorething on 11.22.11 at 5:32 am

Classic move like Garth said. Bro Kelowna is side show and Calgarians living way beyond mental capability and means show up there on weekends to prove it!

I stayed in Kelowna/Vernon this summer for a few weeks in a very nice vacation home. The guy from Calgary who owned it was talking it up big time.

The units he bought 4 years ago for 1.2M hasnt appreciated and since then similar one’s can sell for $900K.

I like the area, his ski boat and F250 and will add his home to the list all for $600K down the road with 40% down so the bank offers me the sweetest terms on the planet.

It’s not gonna end well. Oops, I just gave away one of the one of four properties I plan to buy in the downturn.

#68 Onemorething on 11.22.11 at 6:01 am

sorry similar one’s CANT sell for 900K.

#69 AACI Home-Dog on 11.22.11 at 6:19 am

15 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen)

WASTE AND DELUSION, COTTAGE STYLE

Very well said….just what I was thinking, in this “ski town” I am in…no more US buyers around, either.

#70 sam.i.am on 11.22.11 at 6:44 am

Notice how the recent increase in oil prices foreshadowed the Iran sanctions.

#71 Longterm on 11.22.11 at 6:46 am

David Cameron is really grasping at straws to stop deleveraging and deflation here in the UK.

The Bank of England interest rate remains at 300 year [yes three centuries] lows, we have the highest developed world inflation at over 5% [equalling mild stagflation with real wages dropping] and housing prices are melting rapidly everywhere outside Central London where they are only held up by the low interest rates and financial services sector and offshore money. The drop in housing prices in real terms [after the ravages of inflation] is already significant.

Furthermore, the government has pumped several hundred billion pounds into the system through quantitiative easing and devalued the pound by about 25%. All this and the growth rate here for the economy is a stunning half a percent.

The plan appears to be to inflate away the debt which is not much of a plan and to continue to pander to the financial services industry which was allowed to become too important is now one of the only things keeping the lights on so when they say jump, Dave says ‘how high?’.

The last thing we need here is a return to the property market days of 2007 spurred on by 5% down and government guarantees. Brits already no next to nothing about personal finance so to encourage them to dump what little money they have into a flat is absurd not to mention that the flat will probably be only a leasehold with ground rent due to the freeholder [likely a member of David’s socio-economic class or a City banker], pay stamp duty on the purchase to the government, mortgage ‘arrangement fees’ of £500-5000 to the bank plus solicitor bills. The flat will be tiny and poorly insulated, locking buyers into a lifetime of ever rising heating bills.

Great idea Dave.

#72 Steven Rowlandson on 11.22.11 at 7:52 am

Re:#19
AS an aside, does anyone here really know how long it takes to earn and save a mere pittance of say $ 500,000 or a $ 1,000,000 after taxes (everywhere) and living costs?

As a tradesman in Barrie ,Ontario it took me 26 years to earn more than $360 grand in pretax profit doing stairs.
I exist and work in Canada but I doubt I’ll ever live here unless I was immortal and able to regenerate and recover from any injury. I would have to work hard and save for more than a century to buy my first home and then may be. With my luck it could take a thousand years of work and saving due to real estate inflation .

#73 plain_janey on 11.22.11 at 8:00 am

I was just talking about this with my husband the other night, how apparently Britain are keen to follow the ‘Canadian model’ of home ownership – 5% down, government backed mortgages coupled with a sense of entitlement & a ‘right’ to own. What’s next, the housing industry as the major component of GDP in the UK? That will work well on a small island with limited land resources. When did Cameron develop this crush on Harper anyways?

#74 David B on 11.22.11 at 8:01 am

Garth: Having bought my first home in 1977 I remember all too well what can happen come renewal time ….4-5% interest rates jumped to 18% plus!

Last night listing to the news wrt to The Super Committee’s Super Failure of Super Cowards …. I was shocked to here a financial person say in part, sooner or later interest rates could reach 16% if these fools keep turning their backs on the problem. Even Mayor Bloomburg was hopping mad referring to them as cowards and he was not kind telling the President to grow a a backbone in his suggestions on leadership!

So Sir? you mentioned what a 1% hike would do in Canada what the heck would a massive rise do?

#75 bigrider on 11.22.11 at 8:10 am

Well, looks like you have given your opinion of CMHC, in an indirect way at least, at the end of your entry today.

Maybe next time, if you are interviewed for a RE roundtable again, like back in 2010 with the likes of Cohen and Lamb around you, you might flat out attack the CMHC and really cause a flurry in the papers.

I would love to see the issue addressed by the RE humpers and denegrators alike.

#76 Bob Copeland on 11.22.11 at 8:16 am

“and it seems the Yanks would rather gamble …”. That sounds like you think the politicians in D.C. represent the American people. You know how the home of the free operates. Had you ponied up a large amount of cash, under the table of course, they would have ignored the environmentalists. You have to buy your votes down here.

#77 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 11.22.11 at 8:18 am

And so they pulled a Canada -didn’t Maggie Thatcher already do that a couple of decades ago to dire consequences?

#78 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.11 at 8:19 am

Garth – is this another one of your neighbours trying to unload a multi-million-dollar estate?

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/gimme-shelter/2011/11/16/house-of-the-week-16854-mclaren-road/

How many months/years will this cedar palace sit on the market?

#79 Sky on 11.22.11 at 8:20 am

Please be gentle with us poor Kelowna slobs, Garth. Kelowna officially attained 4th World status on Sunday, after a retaining wall collapsed under a brand new ( and totally unnecessary) overpass.

Even 3rd World constructions last more than a few days.

At least Brad bought in the downtown area of Kelowna where they have a few amenities. Like, say, a hospital. Because us westsiders ,on the other side of the bridge, are now cutoff from the ” mainland” for God knows how long.

Sunday:

http://www.castanet.net/news/West-Kelowna/67528/The-history-of-the-interchange

Monday: Carmageddon

http://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/67572/Kelowna-s-Carmageddon

Sunday the southbound lanes of our main artery ( HWY 97) were closed because of the collapse. Monday the northbound lanes into Kelowna were also closed because the retaining wall on THAT side of the highway was looking suspicious.

HWY 97 is the ONLY route into and out of Kelowna ( except for a 3 hr detour north down Westside Road, into Vernon and then back into Kelowna).

How will this nightmare end? WHEN will it end? Nobody knows.

Ministry of Transportation- Newspeak for Dept of Road Paralysis- is assessing the situation. Is this the same Transportation Ministry that sunk our old, but still usable, floating bridge a few years ago and erected a SINGLE new replacement bridge ? Yup. Same jokers.

What Kelowna desperately needed was another bridge and another route into and out of Kelowna. Our govt, in all its wisdom, decided otherwise. Now the people are stuck. Stranded, vulnerable, and sooo stuck.

#80 bigrider on 11.22.11 at 8:22 am

#9 Mr Lee.

I have looked for section in herald with no luck. please post Brad article if you can.

Thanks.

#81 Anne "Pom Pom" Rohmer on 11.22.11 at 8:28 am

If you thought the BNS “You’re Richer Than You Think” was rich, get a load of this……just replace the banker covering her ears with the lustful Canadian housing porn star!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OjXl61uKq8c

“We don’t care about your monthly wage! The only thing that matters is your property’s value.”

Financial Times – The three banks’ CEE exposure exceeds Austrian GDP, raising concerns that the government would be unable to bail them out if their loan portfolios turned sour. The announcement came just as the spreads of Austrian bond yields over German Bunds rose to record highs and was also designed to calm market jitters, a central bank official said.

#82 gentleInvestor on 11.22.11 at 8:29 am

#29, MarcL

I live in the “boonies” and I can buy a house like that for about $60k with a view of the water. Crazy.

#83 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.11 at 8:33 am

Over in the land of HAM, look for the “leading provider of real estate information, consulting, advertising and online services in China” (CRIC on the Nasdaq) to see some interesting trading today, after it posted third quarter net loss attributable to CRIC shareholders of $413.05 million versus profit of $6.57 million last year… on revenues of $69.16 million.

If it cost you $400M+ to generate $69M in sales, something is seriously wrong in your market.

#84 Keeping the Faith on 11.22.11 at 8:33 am

#50 Chris

Time to start looking for another profession, if one can call real estate sales a profession.

The gig is up and so are your pumping days on this site.

The countdown is on, in 2 months you will be wishing the occupy movement in a city near you were still ongoing so you could join the ranks in professing how you are the downtrodden of society, soon to be known as “Realtors”

#85 detalumis on 11.22.11 at 8:49 am

#51 not sure what you are trying to say, that you hope smug home owners will congratulate you for not buying a house in the last 15 years? You really know the truth which is that you should have bought something 15 years ago at the bottom of the last bubble. I bought my house at the peak of that one and paid it off in 11 years; you would have been much farther ahead to have done the same thing during the last trough. If you really want to keep convincing yourself that it was a good idea not to buy when medium prices where under 150K then good luck to you.

#86 TorontoMarc on 11.22.11 at 8:51 am

Hey Garth, stop saying 95%, we all know this gem of a paragraph means most can borrow 100%.

From CMHC website:
“Normally, the minimum down payment comes from your own resources. However, a gift of a down payment from an immediate relative is acceptable for dwellings of 1 to 4 units. For eligible borrowers, additional sources of down payment, such as lender incentives and borrowed funds, are also permitted. Check with your lender for qualifying criteria and availability.”

#87 kc on 11.22.11 at 8:53 am

34 Junius on 11.21.11 at 11:52 pm

“Is London now “The Best Place on Earth”?”

You might be on to something there…. Isn’t there going to be some sort of 5 ring party/circus coming to town? and won’t “every body want to live in a city where the gold was handed out?”

#88 fancy_pants on 11.22.11 at 8:58 am

politicians redefine AI (artificial intelligence)

#89 fancy_pants on 11.22.11 at 8:59 am

…unless of course it deals with lining their own pockets

#90 dosouth on 11.22.11 at 9:10 am

Well Brad,

Having lived with the Kelowna market for 15 or so years and having sold earlier this year and moved to the Maritimes we wish you well.

Whoever supplied your investment advice may want to run and hide from you in let’s say….. the next 6 months to a year. The whole Okanagan is on sale!

#91 Junius on 11.22.11 at 9:23 am

#65 TheRealCrap,

You said, “Metro Vancouver’s population is about 8,000,000.”

Excuse me? Try about 2.5 million. You can’t even add.

#92 Smokanagan on 11.22.11 at 9:26 am

Epic Fail Brad and wife. I live in downtown Ktown, this place is overrated by outsiders. You can rent newish full houses on the westside or BM for 2k/month, an 1800 sqft townhouse would be even less. Thanks for bringing your $$ though, we need it, the median income in Kelowna is pathetic compared to anything in AB. The only people I know who make good money work in health care, own a winery, or work in AB and fly back and forth. Very little industry or tech jobs here. Construction is quiet and not going to come roaring back, go play golf at any number of courses around here and you’ll see how many empty units there are. And the winters suck, grey for 4 months in the valley, Big White is an hour away, doesn’t get huge dumps, and is fogged in 6 days a week.

#93 Junius on 11.22.11 at 9:27 am

#48 Puertoricanmama,

If what you say is true then God is an idiot for putting us in charge of this planet. We are destroying it by burning all this oil.

Nutbar.

#94 Junius on 11.22.11 at 9:33 am

#58 BPOE,

It is not about home ownership versus renting. You remain clueless.

What people here want are sensible economic policies that do not create financial bubbles that destroy lives. They want one set of rules and laws that apply to everyone equally. They want an economy that focuses on creating productivity and opportunity – not one that focuses on short term and unsustainable greed. They want one where the winners create value for the greater society not get picked like lottery winners.

After all this time you remain totally in the dark. Completely out of touch with what is really going on in the world today.

#95 The American on 11.22.11 at 10:16 am

23rdBPOE, You said, “There is nothing better in the world than Vancouver home ownership and that’s a FACT.”

Again, you need to learn the differences between facts and OPINIONS. You speak opinions nearly 100% of the time. For example, I had a very nice date, unbelievably delicious steak dinner, and received an amazing knob job at the end just this past evening. Believe me when I say it was SO MUCH better than owning anything in drowning Vancouver, especially now that your values are showing all the signs of price compression – not growth.

#96 Herb on 11.22.11 at 10:24 am

#34 Junius,

the “so-called Conservative Governments” are not interested in Ponzi schemes at all. Their aim is the smooth functioning of the economy in one direction – in favour of the financial and corporate elite that is the real basis of their support, their actual grassroots.

A “Conservative” government cannot but respond to “suggestions” from the real estate and financial sectors that something be done to solve sector problems. If it can be spun as benefiting the public, so much the better. Market activity/profits will be generated now; the future can be subject to future measures when the time comes.

Perhaps we should amend “Privatize profits, socialize risk” to “Privatize profits, socialize expense”.

#97 Pr on 11.22.11 at 10:33 am

This is exacly it! And this why jim flaherty minister of finance and Mark Carney banque canada *probably* knew what they were doing. The average joe trust them and look what they have done. Its time to get some reality in the real estate, immediately, like, 20% CASH DOWN to buy a house, will remove right away the flipers and other problems, that make the prices go up so much.

The laws of economics were unfair. So they were repealed. Prices soared in Kelowna and Canmore as they did in Phoenix and Miami. But the laws are back. And coming soon to your town.

#98 Living in AB on 11.22.11 at 10:45 am

Hmmm. The in laws bought a 450k house about 45min away from Kelowna, a Resort Area on OK Lake (1.5 years ago). This is the same time I started reading this blog and warned them not to. They thought I was insane. I wonder what those units are selling for today. Better check. BUt here is the question should i bring this up next Sunday dinner? lol

#99 eaglebay - Parksville on 11.22.11 at 10:48 am

#18 TheRealTruth on 11.21.11 at 10:36 pm

And where are these 100 of thousands of people going to work? BC doesn’t want (tree huggers) to build and develop its natural resources. Pipelines, gas and all sort of commodities including port facilities.

#100 disciple on 11.22.11 at 10:50 am

Nostradamus, that foreclosure link will prove very helpful in the near future… which got me thinking that with the firesales that will occur, wouldn’t it be accurate to say that realtors will have a lot of work on their plates? I once again revisit the puzzle of why on this blog there is so much realtor-bashing? Of course, I understand there are some corrupt, liars, part-time amateurish, underqualified, and mostly two-faced blood-sucking vampires of evil. But other than that…

#101 Junius on 11.22.11 at 10:52 am

#96 Herb,

Sad but true. Clearly unsustainable.

#102 Ret on 11.22.11 at 11:06 am

#16 Tax-Haven

“but many, many towns and cities in Canada no longer have any economic rationale.”

Hamilton, right?

#103 disciple on 11.22.11 at 11:06 am

The dark side of CFL bulbs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS5ogZxoZ2Y

LED technology has been available for over 50 years. Why do we cling so desperately to our antiquated belief systems? Why do we find it so difficult to let go of conventions? Your culture is your enemy. Novelty is the purpose of life. But not the sort of Social Darwinism which you’ve been taught in school, that is a distorted twist and is not the way the world works. Create/discover something new today…

#104 eaglebay - Parksville on 11.22.11 at 11:07 am

#35 Fleabitten Monkey on 11.21.11 at 11:56 pm

Thank you PM Cameron. This is an excellent idea, for now. Here in Western Canada we’ll supply you with all the lumber and copper that you’ll need. Not a problem.
Finally good news for the Canadian economy.
I’m buying equities in copper and lumber companies as we speak. Easy money.

#105 Kelvinator on 11.22.11 at 11:15 am

#18
Many were rewarded $$ during the dot-com bubble too, but how long did that last?

#106 Okanagan Renter on 11.22.11 at 11:16 am

#79 Sky: Any chance the collapse of the retaining wall was a result of the little earthquake we had here a few days ago? I’m surprised no one is putting two-and-two together.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/11/18/bc-okanagan-earthquake.html

Not to flog a dead horse, but by way of an analogy this is like not linking the absurdly low interest rates to the RE bubble that is bound to burst when said rates spike.

#107 Reality Check on 11.22.11 at 11:17 am

“Chris on 11.22.11 at 1:11 am
Canmore down $500K. I call BS on that”

Sorry chris, I also live in canmore,
This development in town has comparable units http://www.lodgesatcanmore.com/
have an advert every week in the local paper “back to 2002 pricing …. 2 bed units for $225k … act now get $10k off.”

As for starving relators, we recently sold out place, the realtor constantly bleated how their income was down 80%. The realtor that came to “pitch” us for the work showed the stats, they were not good. Average sales (volume/price etc) in town been dropping for 2 yrs. If its bounced since then, go look up dead cat bounce.

Beginning of summer when the market is “buoyant” there were maybe 8 to 12 properties per month sold, in a town of that many realtors with 400 units for sale that is slim pickings.

#108 disciple on 11.22.11 at 11:27 am

I promise to never lead you astray. Here is what should be taught in school but is carefully hidden from you. It is only taught to the elite and their progeny. But disciple will show you. From Lady Queenborough:

Man is a creature of mind and matter. To the realm
of mind belongs metaphysical thought which, whether
trained or untrained, is peculiar to each individual and
is subject for its development or restraint to his will.
It is the basis of religion in the generally accepted
sense of this word ; it is purely spiritual and can reach
the height of mysticism. From it issue creeds or doctrines and the erection of a theological system of
beliefs.
Imparted to other individuals and accepted by them,
the metaphysical thought of a few great minds has
become the basis of religious systems. Upon its teaching was grafted a Ritual or Law, disciplining the life,
mystic, moral, social and even physical, of its adherents
or believers. From the exercise of such laws, theocracy
or the rule of priesthood was evolved. It is to be found
in every religion regardless of the fact that in some
instances like in the Buddhist doctrine of Gautama
and in the teaching of Jesus Christ, nothing is further
removed than ritualism from the metaphysical thought
or religious conception of the founders.

Exoterism vs. Esoterism. Terrorism?

The power of theocrasy or exercise of government
rule over the masses by a hierarchy of priests or adepts
rested on its dual system of teaching, namely : Exoterism and Esoterism, the former a code of discipline of the thought and mode of life of the masses, the latter
the hierarchic school wherein were trained the chosen
adepts destined to safeguard the rules imposed upon
the people by the high priests.

#109 disciple on 11.22.11 at 11:31 am

In this age of wireless and aeroplanes, one of the
fads of the modern highbrow is to scoff at such things
as sorcerers, magic and evocations as old wives’ tales.
Tales of ancient history ! There are people who refuse
to believe in the existence of the supernatural, perhaps
we should say supernormal, even when confronted with
the evidence. Such are the sceptics who deny everything.
Hidebound in their prejudice, they ignore the
fact that magic, White or Black, has now as many
adepts as ever, nor can they distinguish between the
different schools of spiritism.
First, there are the charlatans whose tricks in the
line of Spiritism are generally sooner or later unmasked.
Second, there are the Occultists who operate in
secrecy and hide their meetings from all but initiates
with the greatest care.
Many persons are duped by charlatans, so the sceptics
persuade themselves of the absolute non-existence
of all diabolical practices in modern times. They are
wrong. For Occultism flourishes now in Europe, Asia,
and America. The Black Mass is said today in Paris
and London, and Satanism has its faithful followers.

#110 Calgary is just fine on 11.22.11 at 11:35 am

So insanity means… “doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results.”
Meanwhile Garth writes the same things over and over expecting different results.
hmmmm….

#111 sam.i.am on 11.22.11 at 11:38 am

living in ab… after fear and panic comes contempt, not there yet but probably wise to avoid re conversations with family members, vent or whatever on here instead.

#112 Michael Hawk on 11.22.11 at 11:45 am

We’re creating… an ownership society in this country, where more Americans than ever will be able to open up their door where they live and say, welcome to my house, welcome to my piece of property. – President George W. Bush, October 2004

You always remember that moment, if you’ve done it, when you get that key and you walk into your first flat, it’s a magic moment,” he said. “It’s a moment I want everyone in this country to have, not just better-off people. The dream of home ownership is something that should be achievable for everyone.” David Cameron – 2011-11-22

wow…

#113 Canadian Watchdog on 11.22.11 at 11:47 am

Two charts for this post:

Kelowna Residential Building Permits http://i39.tinypic.com/10mmmmq.png

Okanagan Mainland Home Sales & Average Price http://i40.tinypic.com/11qibkx.png

#114 Van guy waiting on 11.22.11 at 11:52 am

Garth,

Any chance you can post MLS # for this townhouse in Kelowna? And for future posts of individual sales that you post?

Thx

#115 Kilby on 11.22.11 at 11:53 am

Most expensive listing in Banff.
4 bedroom, 3 bath, 4 balconies, 6 piece en suite, views of Mt. Norquay. Asking $575K, down from $650K. 188 days on market.

#116 eaglebay - Parksville on 11.22.11 at 11:54 am

#74 David B on 11.22.11 at 8:01 am

This Super Committee is only political positioning.
Washington can no longer govern.
Their failure at trying to control debt means nothing.
Even the automatic debt reduction program is useless.
None of these programs would be in force for another 2 years anyway. By then a new government will be in control and nobody knows what’s going to happen.
Media hype all the way.

#117 Daisy Mae on 11.22.11 at 12:01 pm

“….2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows).”

***************************

I thought windowless bedrooms were against the law? There is only one escape route….

It comes with a hammer. — Garth

#118 eaglebay - Parksville on 11.22.11 at 12:06 pm

#93 Junius on 11.22.11 at 9:27 am

What’s oil got to do with it?
Try overpopulation.
By the way, how much oil do you use?

#119 eaglebay - Parksville on 11.22.11 at 12:13 pm

#95 The American on 11.22.11 at 10:16 am

Bragging about your knob job? Must be your first.

BPOE is playing with you and some of the other bloggers. He’s having fun at aggravating people.
He doesn’t really believe in any of his BS either.
Now back to the Super Committee.

#120 Sky on 11.22.11 at 12:13 pm

@ Okanagan Renter- Earthquake? Who knows. But I live a couple K from that overpass and didn’t feel even a tremor. A tiny quake hundreds of mile away should NOT blowout a properly reinforced wall. They are supposed to be over-engineered to withstand major impacts. What’s next? The actual overpass blowing down in a windstorm?

I suspect the collapse is part of the race to the bottom. Shoddy construction, shoddier material, inspectors who look the other way, engineers who don’t know their butts from a hole in the ground. One thing they DON’T skimp on is the ceremonies.

http://www.castanet.net/news/West-Kelowna/66662/Westside-Road-Interchange-opens

We’re living in an Ayn Rand world now. Doubt we’ll ever get the truth of what really went wrong.

#121 Form Man on 11.22.11 at 12:17 pm

#203 Habbitt @ 11.21.11

agree. I made the mistake of thinking westernman was replacing Devil’s Advocate ( perhaps that he even was DA). Alas, westernman is a tiny little worm wriggling to get out of the harsh light of truth. At least DA had the gonads to attempt a defense of his ideology. I shan’t waste anymore time on the night crawler.

#22 Paul
yes, Kelowna has elected a pro-development dinosaur from the past, because in the midst of the biggest housing glut ever, the voters agreed that the problem is not enough development. We will refrain from commenting on the supposed wisdom of the average okanagan voter…….

#79 Sky
actually the old floating bridge was not sunk ( due to environmental backlash ) instead it was crushed and used for base material for the new westside collapsing overpass………

good post Garth. amazing how someone is willing to pony up 600 large before doing any research……….of course these folks will become civic voters……..

#122 oslec on 11.22.11 at 12:55 pm

#58 BPOE on 11.22.11 at 2:15 am

Hey BPOE, me and my wife make about 160G annually and live in a 300G house. If you can find me and my wife jobs that would pay us enough to keep the same income to mortgage ratio, we will buy in Vancouver. Other wise i’ll live in the boondocks and hopefully save enough to retire in vancouver after the crash. Maybe i’ll even buy your house for a big discount…..

#123 JohnnyBravo on 11.22.11 at 12:55 pm

That little snippet from Cameron’s speech sounds eerily similar to a speech given by W. not so long ago, before the Great American Housing Collapse. Home ownership as the American dream and all that.

Yup. Need to keep the debt machine pumping out more and more. With that in mind, I wonder what financial follies the Can gov is going to engage in once it becomes apparent that growth in mortgage sales are slowing. 70% of households “own” a home? I don’t think they’ll be happy until it reaches 150% or 200%

Can’t wait until the banks start convincing Canadians that you’re seriously flawed as a Homo Economicus unless you have a second or even a third home, plus at least a few rental units scattered here and there. Remember, it’s not the price. It’s the monthly, stupid!

#124 Daisy Mae on 11.22.11 at 12:58 pm

OTTAWA PETE: “Here’s a link to a video of Cameron outlining the scheme:

http://tinyurl.com/7fknfgx

*************************************

So…Britains’ PM thinks he’s introducing a new idea? When, in fact, he’s just pulling a ‘Canada’. It’d be funny if it wasn’t so disasterous….how stupid.

#125 Another Opinion on 11.22.11 at 1:08 pm

FINALLY SOMEONE TALKS ABOUT CANMORE!

I live in this town. In fact I live in Three Sisters and what Jenna says is so true.
Some SFH appear to be still selling but the condo market has stalled. The Town sponsered an affordable housing complex which took 150+ renters out of a market where a lot of SFH owners rely on rental income to have a life after mortgage.
I have a few friends who are already under water and claim to be happy about “atleast being stuck here”. Ya it’s beuatiful but winter lasts from Oct to July. We barely get 30min of sun 3 months of the year in Three Sisters.
You nailed the economy here too Garth…Tourism, Parks and Real Estate. That’s it.
I bought in 2004 when prices started moving. In 2008 I got scared and we sold in 2009…best thing we did in our lives. Now we rent with the freedom of not having a mortgage.
Oh ya…watch the commercial real estate market collapse here too. Way to much biult the last few years. Lease now & for sale sign are popping up by the week.
I’ve lived here for 14 years. I also know that numerous folks here own 2 or more homes as “rentals or investments”. Some of these folks bought real early on so they’re lucky to have the place almost paid off but they are counting on it for income. Others I know are carrying way to much debt.
For three years since I sold I’ve heard “this is Canmore…everyone wants to live here”. AHHHHH THE STUPIDITY of it all. It’s just a frigin house.
Thanks Garth

#126 Beach Girl on 11.22.11 at 1:14 pm

#16 Tax Haven

They are chock-full of unproductive consuming pensioners.

Got me in a nutshell, jealous.

I had freedom 45.

I hope I live long enough to be a burden on society. Not a pensioner yet, but when I am, I am going to laugh at you arrogant losers.

#78 T.O. Bubble Boy

That house was past its prime in the late 70s. Maybe call up Burt Reynolds or Robert Wagner. Oh, maybe not him.

#127 888realtor on 11.22.11 at 1:37 pm

Government needs middle class as a pillar of social stability. For the last 30 years middle class lived on credit money. If, (as a result of interest rate increase or stricter lending rules), credit is not as easily available anymore as it is now – the middle class would shrink, pillar would shake – that’s a direct threat to the government position. The rulers will be postponing that moment as log as they can – financial cartel doesn’t want to loose their position neither. it means insanely cheap credit money much longer – what else they can do to stay at the top? is there any other alternative within monetarist concept prevailing today?

#128 Genghis on 11.22.11 at 1:43 pm

Jesse Kline on housing. Or: How I stopped worrying and learned to love the bubble

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/21/jesse-kline-on-housing-or-how-i-stopped-worrying-and-learned-to-love-the-bubble/

#129 Pr on 11.22.11 at 1:46 pm

#112 Michael Hawk on 11.22.11 at 11:45 am

WOW! This is good! People should start to pay attention.

#130 Junius on 11.22.11 at 1:59 pm

#118 eaglebay – Parksville,

You asked, “What’s oil got to do with it?
Try overpopulation. By the way, how much oil do you use?”

Oli. Overpopulation. All problems. Lots more to add to that list.

I drive a Hybrid but probably use too much oil anyway.

Your point?

#131 Cato on 11.22.11 at 2:43 pm

Kelowna and Canmore are 2 towns that won’t fare well in coming downturn. I’ve heard the same tired refrain over and over again “Everyone wants to live here”. If everyone wanted to live here they’d be living here. Both towns latched onto the speculative bubble and ignored economic diversity. Now that the bubble is starting to wane the true nature of these communities is being exposed and its a reality check for many. I’ve lived in both towns, each has squandered a golden opportunity to do better and allowed special interest groups tied to property development to run amock.

I remember touring homes for sale in Canmore and remarking how they looked brand new. These were 3 or 4 year old homes but each were rarely lived in, simply being held to flip. Having so many vacant homes is not a sign of a healthy community, its the sign of a community on the verge of economic collapse.

What Brad and anyone else contemplating a move to these destination towns needs to realize is these communities are miserable places for youth. Young people tend to get an education and leave for greener pastures. An influx of retiring boomers might keep the property market hobbling along but at some point the boomers will need to sell and thanks to top heavy demographics there will be few buyers rising through the ranks. Anyone choosing to live here needs to accept the fact there will probably be a serious correction at some point when boomers seek to cash out and find few willing buyers. This is the sword of damocles that hangs above head of anyone who owns property in a place like Kelowna. If you can’t handle a 50% + correction from where you think values are now then don’t buy, rent. Don’t gamble your future retirement on these towns remaining solvent.

#132 Echo on 11.22.11 at 2:48 pm

#58 Better Pack & Own the Exit!

Wow, you’re hilarious. Thanks for that. : )
Must be the smoke….
Rain? What rain?
Corruption? What corruption?
Racism? What racism?
Infrastructure hell? What infrastructure hell?
Paper mâché houses? What paper mâché houses?
Terrible drivers? What terrible drivers?
A less than ethical insurance monopoly? What???
Rude people? What rude people?
Cold, and brutally damp, winters? Nooooooo!
Major earthquake risk? Oh no, not in the BPOE !

That’s right. Inhale. This post didn’t really happen. ; )

#133 disciple on 11.22.11 at 3:25 pm

The story of the murder of William Morgan for
the crime of violating Masonic secrecy has long been
a well known historical fact. Because of an expositional book he had started to publish. He was arrested on a
false charge of larceny, on the 10th Sept., 1826, and conveyed to the jail of Ontario county. The sheriff and officers of this prison were Masons. His house was searched, and his manuscripts were seized and destroyed.

They told the doomed man that his friends had completed their arrangements for his removal to Canada, where his life would be safe. He consented to go with them, and they walked to the wharf where a boat was waiting for them ; they embarked and rowed away into the darkness. When the boat reached the point where Niagara River empties itself into Lake Ontario, the murderers threw off all pretence, and with some horrible mummeries ordered Morgan to prepare for death. They wound a rope around him, attaching to each end of it a heavy weight, and threw him overboard. He sank like a stone, and the murderers returned to tell their comrades that the traitor had met a traitor’s doom.
The body of Morgan was found a year afterwards,
identified by his wife and friends, and buried ; and
although the Masons tried to dispute the identification,
their efforts were futile. None of the murderers was ever
brought to justice.

Nowadays, greater precautions are observed in getting
rid of the enemies of the sect. Some little study
and the cooperation of a few culpable doctors, its
auxiliaries and affiliates, enable the terrible sect to
dispose easily of their enemies. The victim of their
vengeance, swallowing some disease germ, meets a fate that none can prove to have been artificially contrived.

This is the secret of secrets, denied again
and again ! And yet the charge remains ! For plague,
cholera and all epidemics can be let loose on the world
at a word from the Hidden Masters !

#134 RealIsMaName on 11.22.11 at 3:43 pm

Garth, how do you explain new business’s like this always opening up?

http://tinyurl.com/cjwofm4

Are these Referral Program’s out of lack of business?

#135 bcPaul on 11.22.11 at 3:58 pm

#100disciple on 11.22.11 at 10:50 am
Nostradamus, that foreclosure link will prove very helpful in the near future…
Why would you want to pay for a VERY incomplete listing site like this? This info is free BTW

#136 Homer on 11.22.11 at 4:04 pm

Kelowna house prices

I think Canadian Watchdog’s point above #113 was a little too subtle:

Residential Median Jan 2011: $410K

Residential Median Oct 2011: $417K

I went looking expecting to find a massive crash – what am I missing?

#137 disciple on 11.22.11 at 4:19 pm

#127 888realtor has already posted this before. Is this what you call a blog spammer? What is the purpose of doing this? I’ve seen it numerous times… don’t get it…

#138 Harlee on 11.22.11 at 4:29 pm

Welcome back Disciple. Your replacement did a good enough job while you were away,but there’s nothing like reading the REAL Disciple with my morning coffee & breakfast(I presume you are real..correct me if I’m wrong).
Michelle: I figured that’s what you meant by “I was a girl..”(From girl to grown woman)..I’ve heard all sorts of stories about cold in the far north,but a steering-wheel shattering..? Wow. Kind of ‘cool’ is right !

About the situation in Vancouver and the net migration:Will the re-election of Robertson as mayor and his policies (chickens & wheatfields ) have any impact on more people moving out,or is it strictly fundimentals,like jobs and cost of living? I have relatives in Van and they don’t like him (one really HATES his policies),but they have no intention of moving out.They really do feel “stuck”. Of course these days, where in Canada do you find a mayor that has any real smarts anyway? In 2009, our Toon Town mayor probably got most of his votes from the elite and condo developers he so favours.Some of the city councillors are good,but it gets worse as the higher up you look (kind of like the federal government,really….).

#139 Herb on 11.22.11 at 4:41 pm

#126 Beach Girl,

“… unproductive consuming pensioners”? I resemble that remark!

Actually, you have come up with a neat contradiction in terms. Our whole economic system is based on domestic and offshore consumption: if nothing is consumed, nothing is produced and we can leave our resources in the ground. So us “unproductive” consuming pensioners in fact are very productive, helping to keep the capitalist system from grinding to a shuddering halt. Now if the system only had been smart enough and provided pensions large enough to allow us to give even more impetus to production via consumption …

The old Soviet Union had a “Hero of Labour” medal to distinguish those who contributed to economic progress. Obviously capitalism needs a “Hero of Consumption” counterpart. But then, our “Heroes of Consumption” already are distinguished and richly rewarded by having all the toys and fun …

#140 Okanagan Renter on 11.22.11 at 4:50 pm

#85 detalumis: 15 years ago I was barely into my twenties, so buying a house wasn’t an option. Still, I’d here friends and family pressuring me to buy a house as soon as possible. I resisted the temptation, traveled the world, invested my money (not was wisely as I should have, admittedly), and remained free to move to where the jobs were.

15 years later I probably have more “equity” from a life well-lived than if I had squandered my reckless youth on a ball & chain . To answer your question, I don’t expect home owners to congratulate me on not buying. I just want them to stop being so darn sure that they’re smarter than I am for not “investing” in a home.

#141 disciple on 11.22.11 at 4:53 pm

The double headed eagle is seen almost everywhere you can imagine. disciple has dug out the truth for you:

The Double-headed Eagle represents an anagram of the
Baphomet, the esoteric explanation of which is as follows : — Reading Baphomet backwards we get,
Tem-oph-ab. TEM = duplex, OPH = avis, AB = generation. Duplex avis generation = The double bird of generation.

#142 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 4:58 pm

Tax [email protected]#16,
I couldn’t have said it better myself…well done. The problem with these podunk two-bit Canadian shantytowns is that they think they are Aspen or something when in reality they are falling down holes in the ground full of welfare bums and 100 year old relics.

#143 BPOE on 11.22.11 at 5:04 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+consumers+show+resilience/5750357/story.html

Keep on BUYIN

#144 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 5:04 pm

U-THE MAN,
Remember, you can mention Diefenbaker on this post but don’t try mentioning Trudeau – THAT will get you deleted.

Mention anyone you want. Just try not to be a nob. — Garth

#145 Hammer1 on 11.22.11 at 5:05 pm

#102 Ret
You must be joking..Is that why all these new industries and developments are coming to steeltown ?..
steeltown is working and always will work. This city is set up for industry to thrive and it will..just watch us!
Building cranes are going up all over our gem at the end of Lake Ontario. People are moving here from all over the GTA. There is value here, unlike the rest of bubblicious Greater TO area. Risk is lower here, just like G tells us.
http://www.thespec.com/news/economic_development/article/611728–390m-maple-leaf-plant-brings-670-new-jobs-to-mountain
http://dcnonl.com/article/id37631
http://www.mcmasterinnovationpark.ca/
http://raisethehammer.org/blog/2147/new_companies_and_new_developments_downtown
Eat your heart out Kelowna !

#146 BPOE on 11.22.11 at 5:05 pm

DELETED

#147 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 5:16 pm

Form Man,
Did you actually say shan’t? I suppose you drink white wine and have Gloria Vanderbuilt glasses too?

#148 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 5:21 pm

Beach Girl,
You stated ” I hope I live long enough to be a burden on society ”
I state ” you probably already are “

#149 jess on 11.22.11 at 5:24 pm

Ji Wenhua, president of the Yintai Real Estate and Investment Group, was sentenced to death for the fraud (1b us).
http://www.thechinamoneyreport.com/2011/11/10/chinese-fund-managers-sentenced-to-death-after-cheating-investors-out-of-1-billion-usd/

#150 GTA Girl on 11.22.11 at 5:24 pm

Townhouse subdivision in hot Woodbridge. Hwy 7 between islington and Pine Valley. A year ago units couldn’t stay on MlS. Selling for well over $400k.

Many in Woodbridge leave their parents home and buy close.

Now there are 5 units for sale. It’s been almost 2mos. Nothing.

And in Woodbridge, under $500k is considered a deal.

#151 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 5:31 pm

Garth,
Try not to be a nob? What fun is that going to be?

#152 Hammer1 on 11.22.11 at 5:36 pm

My last comment wasn’t meant to trash Kelowna. I’ve passed through there and it is a truly beautiful town.
however, when the great real estate crash is finally fully realized in Canada, Kelowna will suffer much more than Hamilton.
Hamilton is growing Industry and will benefit from a RE correction, drawing desperate people from all over the area. when they lose their shirts in Mississauga and Oakville, they’ll still have some bucks to buy a House down here and take the GO to work, or drive if they want.
Hamilton is tough, from its humble beginnings, it excelled, being the first city in Ontario to have Hydro power way back in 1896.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Hamilton,_Ontario

#153 Victoria on 11.22.11 at 5:38 pm

Ji Wenhua, president of the Yintai Real Estate and Investment Group, was sentenced to death for the fraud (1b us).

It is a wonder they didn’t come to Canada.

#154 Westernman's mother on 11.22.11 at 5:43 pm

#148 Westernboy
Ok, son, I thought you might be changing your ways. You seem really angry these days.so, I dug up this video for you. It brought tears to my eyes and I thought of you. I realized that life is really too short, so better to just be happy and Live and Let live.
Remember, I love you.
Mom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WibmcsEGLKo

#155 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 6:12 pm

Weaternman, Mother,
I may have to disown you Ma, if you keep this up…just don’t move in with Form Man….

#156 Mister Sanity on 11.22.11 at 6:23 pm

Garth are listings-to-population rations indicative of the worst risk cases? Look at these numbers:

Stouffville, ON (a town north of Toronto) – population 30000, 40 listings, ratio=1:750
Toronto – population 3 million, 10000 listings, ratio=1:300
Calgary – population 1.1 million, 7700 listings, ratio=1:142
Halifax – population 300000, 2500 listings, ratio=1:120
Victoria – population 360000, 3200 listings, ratio=1:112
Vancouver – population 2.1 million, 19000 listings, ratio=1:110
Canmore – population 9000, 350 listings, ratio=1:25

Does this imply there’s much less to fear when the ratios are higher? Canmore, Vancouver, and Victoria are the obvious ones that are poised for a downturn, but what about Toronto? It seems relatively healthy in terms of listings, and looking at some of the areas around Toronto (I listed one above), it’s even less scary outside of the city limits. I know those areas won’t escape any country-wide impacts, but shouldn’t they be relatively in better shape?

Anyways, the ratios at least tell you where to stay away from.. Now if only there was a way to easily short real estate on a regional basis…

#157 jess on 11.22.11 at 6:24 pm

Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Swiss banker Ruedi Elmer – an interesting twist to the story

http://taxjustice.blogspot.com/2011/11/on-ruedi-elmer-very-interesting-twist.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/17/swiss-banks-whistleblower-idUSL5E7MH2ZU20111117

#158 Westernman's mother on 11.22.11 at 6:34 pm

Westie, also if you and Form Man don’t start behaving, I’m gonna bang your two heads together. Remember, the way your dad used to do when you fought with your brother…He’d say, “don’t make me pull this car over”…lol..but seriously, you don’t always have to win..
and
don’t forget to call….

#159 Form Man on 11.22.11 at 6:35 pm

#147 westernman

methinks you might be a welfare bum yourself ?
careful of the glint from my designer glasses, it is capable of decapitating bigots……..which in your case would result in your head having to grow a new body…..

#160 Young Old Fart on 11.22.11 at 6:38 pm

I just learned a new word. Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) – a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing,
and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed,
are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

You’ve just discovered the secret structure of this comment section. — Garth

#161 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 6:38 pm

Westernman’s Mother,
Remember, if you move in with Form Man you two will always be fighting over who’s lingerie is who’s. You won’t like it. He’s just plain mean-spirited Ma, don’t do it.

#162 Bottoms_Up on 11.22.11 at 6:52 pm

#54 Kilby on 11.22.11 at 1:42 am
====================================
agreed. there was a news piece on that a few weeks back (young families are leaving b/c the cost of living/housing is so high). i live and work in ottawa and can tell you that people here with jobs are not relocating to work in vancouver. now the unemployed, that’s probably a different story.

#163 Herb on 11.22.11 at 6:53 pm

#141 Disciple,

thanks, I needed that, I think. Up to now I always thought that the Double-headed Eagle merely was the crest of pre-WW II Austria and a few other European states.

Could we get back to real conspiracy theories, you know, the kind that require tinfoil? Your new stuff leaves me cold.

#164 Darryl on 11.22.11 at 6:59 pm

“….2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows).”

***************************

I thought windowless bedrooms were against the law? There is only one escape route….

…………………………………………………….

It’s called a closet.

#165 Westernman on 11.22.11 at 7:05 pm

Young Old Fart,
Well done,soldier. That word you have discovered … ineptocracy, perfectly describes the modern day Canada.
When it comes to the state of contemporary Canada I think this clever phrase sums it up succinctly…
“When you completely idiot-proof a society you end up with a society only an idiot would want to live in”
Canada to a “T”, isn’t it?

#166 jess on 11.22.11 at 7:06 pm

This currency trader who hid losses of $691 million for five years.

synthetic loans

Allfirst is owned by Allied Irish Banks, which is based in Dublin. It announced plans in September to sell Allfirst to the M&T Bank Corporation for about $3.1 billion

Ex-Currency Trader Sentenced To Seven and a Half Years
Published: January 18, 2003

The indictment also said that Mr. Rusnak went to great lengths to hide his losses, including renting a box at Mailboxes Etc. at 2472 Broadway in Manhattan in the fictitious name of David Russell. Then, according to the indictment, Mr. Rusnak told Allfirst to send a request for the confirmation of a fictitious trade to Mr. Russell. Mr. Rusnak retrieved the letter, signed it as David Russell and sent it to the bank’s independent auditor, ”all for the purpose of concealing his fraudulent conduct from the bank,” the indictment said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/18/business/ex-currency-trader-sentenced-to-seven-and-a-half-years.html?ref=johnrusnak

#167 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.22.11 at 7:18 pm

#100 disciple — “. . . wouldn’t it be accurate to say that realtors will have a lot of work on their plates?” — Indeed they may, but whom would they sell the houses to, how much do the respective banks take and what happens to the original owners? Are they moved in tent cities, or metal shacks with no washroom facilities?

They will have to go somewhere, but all the shelters are full. As far as the realtor bashing goes, I am not a realtor so I can’t comment on something I know nothing about. If others wish to, that is their freedom of choice.

#106 Okanagan Renter — Good post, esp. the last para.

#108 disciple — “. . . the rules imposed upon
the people by the high priests.” — High priests — TPTB or elite.

#140 Okanagan Renter — “. . . I probably have more “equity” from a life well-lived than if I had squandered my reckless youth on a ball & chain.” — Great sentence. That is the whole point of life — to have as many new experiences as possible, while ignoring others’ “When are you going to buy?” crap.

#168 Junius on 11.22.11 at 7:28 pm

Does anyone else feel like they are in a 1960s Comic Book with Western Man and Form Man battling it out as sub prime Super heros while Westernman’s Mother rocks her chair? All very bizarre.

#169 ballingsford on 11.22.11 at 7:29 pm

#140 Okanagan Renter
**************

Well said!!!

#170 cto on 11.22.11 at 7:32 pm

i heard on th news today the city of toronto is investing in a 75 floor condo downtown. They expect to profit 100s of millions. What are thir advisors thinking?

Any thoughts Garth????

#171 Mister Obvious on 11.22.11 at 7:51 pm

#152 Hammer1

“My last comment wasn’t meant to trash Kelowna. I’ve passed through there and it is a truly beautiful town”
——————————-

Myself, I’m not quite so charitable. Kelowna looks like an enormous 50 km strip mall running from the 97C junction practically all the way north to Vernon. If you want to see the last vestiges of the quaint, parochial Okanagan as it used to be, head south to Penticton. Hurry though, the push to ugly is only a few years away there.

#172 Bigrider on 11.22.11 at 8:05 pm

CTV news tonight.” Condo market in T.O setting new records. No signs of slowing down”.

“100000 new people each year” and” York region has contributed to the boom just as much”

Tower after tower after tower…

#173 west side guy on 11.22.11 at 8:13 pm

Here’s some perspective for everybody. It’s a well-done chart of all the money in the world. Use your browser to zoom and pan.

http://xkcd.com/980/huge

See if you can find “Value of all gold ever mined” (you’ll have to squint)…..ZZiing!

#174 Ret on 11.22.11 at 8:16 pm

“….2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows).”

The bedroom probably has a 5-6 ft. opening without a door into the living or dining room which keeps it legal.

My daughter’s “1 bedroom” in a Waterclub building on Queen’s Quay in TO is also windowless. You expect a bedroom window for only $325,000?

Thank god she only rents the joint.

#175 Timing is Everything on 11.22.11 at 8:22 pm

#167 Nosty – They will have to go somewhere…to metal shacks with no washroom facilities….

Just ship ’em off to these condos in Fort McMurray…pretty much the same thing. http://tinyurl.com/7j2t3me

#176 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.22.11 at 8:27 pm


Euro exit beckons; Futures sink The banks need more money, so the US Fed cranks up the presses again; Regime Change “Oh yes, it’s all Germany’s fault, because they won’t play by the rules that make the private central bankers rich and the people poor!” wrh.com.

Gold, OJ and Tang Economics in there somewhere; US Debt – Deficit Bomb No one can say China hasn’t warned them; Global Financial Collapse Everything is synchronized, and 0:18 clip Gremlins 2 — Canned foods and shotguns; AIG US govt. sued for US$25 bln. for takeover.
*
3:59 clip Egypt is moving to a civilian govt.; DHS Turkey frying? They’re all a bunch of turkeys; Super Congress have to make cuts, so SS would be a good place (to pay for the wars); The Triad Working toward war; 8:20 clip The rise and fall of the Soviet Union; 3:55 clip Keith Olbermann calls for Mayor Bloomberg’s resignation; Protesters Try rubber bullets and more. Only in America, you say? Where did freedom of speech go? Arab Spring Geopolitical (and other) interests.

Debunking the CIA The consp. theo. have got them all hot ‘n’ bothered! Iran “And some of the Iran charges are falling apart just like the Iraq ones, as Gareth Porter reports.”; Mubarak Present repression worse; Just like the UK — US camera-happy; US and Mexico governed by cartels; Climategate Loonies Here comes Version 2.0!

#177 disciple on 11.22.11 at 8:28 pm

135 bcPaul… how do I get this info for free?

#178 AJ on 11.22.11 at 8:36 pm

#152- Couldn’t agree with you more. The Hammer is rising – and rising fast. I hope the GTA remains scared of the place because it remains the best kept secret around. I am counting my days for when I move there from the T dot.

#179 echo on 11.22.11 at 8:41 pm

#143 BPOE:

Ok, perhaps it’s crack, not smoke.

Seriously, do you actually not understand that it’s CREDIT buying those items in retail stores and auto dealerships? And, do you also not understand that the more overwhelmed the herd feels, be it from social, political or financial pressure, the more they will use those cards due to a defeatist attitude combined with a desire for a quick emotional fix?

No, and no. I know. I just have to make sure that everyone else on here understands the simple facts.

Whew.

#180 Herb on 11.22.11 at 8:41 pm

WARNING: POLITICAL CONTENT

The soul of the Harper Government (of Canada) –

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/politics%2Bruthlessness/5751628/story.html

#181 ballingsford on 11.22.11 at 9:24 pm

#167 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

#140 Okanagan Renter — “. . . I probably have more “equity” from a life well-lived than if I had squandered my reckless youth on a ball & chain.”
******
— Great sentence. That is the whole point of life — to have as many new experiences as possible, while ignoring others’ “When are you going to buy?” crap.
*******
I think you miss the point Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad.

Their comments sound like they are living life to the fullest. How can you enjoy life these days if you are a slave to your home? When we die, what does it really matter? The poster sounds like they are enjoying life without going broke!

Hopefully, there is some money left over to cover funeral costs and a bit of inheritance and hopefully, they won’t have debt to repay for the debt accrued from their loved one and it becomes the responsibility of the estate and their heirs.

Don’t even think about the costs of your loved one(s) spending years in a retirement home before they pass away. You’ll need a lot of cash to cover this part of their life (lives).

Hopefully, by the time we pass away, we are able to impart some financial wisdom to our children and not lead them into the trap that so many young adults (and maybe older adults) are making these days.

Think smart, not greedily!!! A balloon does not rise forever. It eventually pops! Pure Physics!

#182 Daisy Mae on 11.22.11 at 9:29 pm

Darryl on 11.22.11 at 6:59 pm
“….2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows).”

***************************

I thought windowless bedrooms were against the law? There is only one escape route….

…………………………………………………….

It’s called a closet.

********************************

You’re kidding, right? You got me…someone did! Be it Jenna, Garth, or you! LOL

#183 Daisy Mae on 11.22.11 at 9:33 pm

Ret on 11.22.11 at 8:16 pm
“….2 bed apartment (the 2nd bed has no windows).”

The bedroom probably has a 5-6 ft. opening without a door into the living or dining room which keeps it legal.

My daughter’s “1 bedroom” in a Waterclub building on Queen’s Quay in TO is also windowless. You expect a bedroom window for only $325,000?

Thank god she only rents the joint.

**********************

Okaaay….that’s a possibility, too. (Good grief…)

#184 Daisy Mae on 11.22.11 at 9:38 pm

Mister Obvious on 11.22.11 at 7:51 pm
#152 Hammer1

“My last comment wasn’t meant to trash Kelowna. I’ve passed through there and it is a truly beautiful town”
——————————-

Myself, I’m not quite so charitable. Kelowna looks like an enormous 50 km strip mall running from the 97C junction practically all the way north to Vernon. If you want to see the last vestiges of the quaint, parochial Okanagan as it used to be, head south to Penticton. Hurry though, the push to ugly is only a few years away there.

***************************************8

I’m with Hammer. I love Kelowna. It’s a lovely, beautiful city. So, there…

#185 Timing is Everything on 11.22.11 at 9:41 pm

#177 disciple

Use ‘the Force’…

#186 Daisy Mae on 11.22.11 at 9:50 pm

MISTER OBVIOUS: “Kelowna looks like an enormous 50 km strip mall running from the 97C junction practically all the way north to Vernon…”

************************************

WRONG! Hwy. 97 runs along the lake all the way from Penticton to Vernon and it is a beautiful drive. Aside from city centers — Penticton, Kelowna and Vernon — there are miles and miles of beautiful landscape to enjoy.

#187 Westcoast on 11.22.11 at 10:22 pm

Garth,

I know you’ve posted about preferred shares before, but I’m wondering have you gone into a more in-depth discussion of them before? I’m reading about rate-reset preferred shares, and from what I’m reading, if you investing in 5-year rate-reset preferred shares with one of the big Canadian banks (virtually no risk of going belly-up, or defaulting on it’s investors), it seems that this kind of investment carries nearly no investment risk (as opposed to perpetual preferred shares). Am I getting this right? Or is there something, some risk that I am missing here with buying rate-reset preferred shares with a super-credit worthy institution like a Canadian bank? Can you please, please, please speak to this (or re-post a link to an entry where you have already posted this).

Also, it would be fantastic if you could speak to the liquidity of rate-reset preferred shares. I understand I can sell them at each reset date (typically 5 years), but is it as instantaneous as selling them like common stock through my discount brokerage?

Your help would be appreciated… I understand this is at the bottom of the comment section right now and might not get read, so I may re-post with your new blog for feedback.

Thanks in advance.

#188 Cory on 11.22.11 at 11:46 pm

Man, these people are dumb. Typical story of they made a few dollars on some flips, think they are genius, and have now blown it all. Seen this soooo many times, not just in real estate.

Calgary is definitely not “upward trending” as these trendy dinks stated. Prices are dropping here quite rapidly now. Take out the over 1MM sales and avg and more importantly, median, prices are sick looking.

These people wrote you Garth trying to sound smug and smart but at the same time wondering if they just made a mistake and are looking to you, hoping that you will validate their STEAL OF A DEAL.

Now that your response is written, and the response is not what they wanted to hear, they are out buying sleeping pills.

#189 Onemorething on 11.23.11 at 11:45 am

S&P downside target 1160 only 7 to go, USD just pips away from 0.79!

#190 jess on 11.23.11 at 2:47 pm

“pumping parties” of a different sort …only these are for the flat seeking fuller

– injecting woman’s butt with cement

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/22/2513979/more-fix-a-flat-victims-step-forward.html

#191 jess on 11.23.11 at 6:20 pm

toll booth society
…”Another trend that cannot continue is “the miracle of compound interest.” It is called a “miracle” because it seems too good to be true, and it is – it cannot really go on for long. Heavily leveraged debts go bad in the end, because they accrue interest charges faster than the economy’s ability to pay. Basing national policy on dreams of paying the interest by borrowing money against steadily inflated asset prices has been a nightmare for homebuyers and consumers, as well as for companies targeted by financial raiders who use debt leverage to strip assets for themselves. This policy is now being applied to public infrastructure into the hands of absentee owners, who will build interest charges into the new service prices they charge, and be allowed to treat these charges as a tax-deductible expense. Banking lobbyists have shaped the tax system in a way that steers new absentee investment into debt rather than equity financing….”

http://www.counterpunch.org/2009/05/20/the-toll-booth-economy/