Hooked

Yesterday Fred had enough. The 41-year-old Toronto businessman sat down and hammered out a two-fisted open letter to F.  “I have over $1 million in savings,” he said, “but almost every house I look at costs more than $1 million. What’s happened, that a person with a million dollars cannot afford a decent house? The reason for this housing bubbly is the artificially low interest rates, as well as the incredibly low standards for getting a mortgage.”

As it turned out, when Fred was firing off his note to F and this pathetic blog, the news just kept getting worse. Mark Carney gave a presser, looking like his Stanfields had shrunk. The economy will barely grow over the next year he sputtered, with mucho downside risks. And there was RBC, telling us 57% of all Canadians have no savings. Of those who do, a third dip into their reserves to pay daily expenses. Oh yeah, and 70% understand there’s no way they can retire at 65.

Add that to the news personal and mortgage debt are at record levels, and four in ten people can’t pay their monthly bills, and you see Fred’s point. Cheap money is crack. The people are now hooked, and wasted.

“They are buying houses they cannot afford, having them re-valued at higher levels, and spending the excess equity through HELOC’s. Savings are NOT being built up in this fashion, it is all going towards consumption. I have employees that are working multiple shifts and putting that extra income into pre-construction condos to flip. Banks will continue to lend because their shareholders are constantly looking for growth. It is an all-you-can-lend buffet right now, and unless the government steps in to end this orgy, this bubble is going to end very, very badly. “

Triple minimum downpayments to 15%, he tells F, and cap mortgages at 25 years. If people can’t afford houses, tough. “Owning a house is an investment, and those who cannot afford it, should not be able to buy it as it is socially irresponsible. It is not like owning 10,000 shares of RIM is a God-given right, so why should owning a house be one?”

Of course, Brother Carney said this week he’s not raising rates. Too scary. The borrowing would cease – and were the hell would we be if virgins stopped buying $400,000 townhouses?

In the Lower Mainland, Tanya was also writing me yesterday. “Every time the Bank of Canada holds its rates, it makes me think how much trouble we are really in! It’s hard not to eye that million dollar plus home, and think it could be worth a couple hundred more in a few years or sooner…. but I will now refrain. I keep thinking I should still invest in real estate…. it’s only natural here on the westcoast. It feels like a disease now. I’m cashing out.”

So think about this.

Seventy per cent of us have houses. Almost sixty per cent have no savings. Forty per cent can’t get through the month. Debt is rampant. Personal finances visibly crumbling. Can you imagine what the consequences would be if real estate – the salvation and religion of the masses – staggered?

A company called Pacifica Partners has. The BC-based group counsels high net worth investors on what to do to stay that way. Yesterday, while Fred flummoxed and Tanya tuned out, Pacifica was telling its clients Canadian real estate is the wrong game.

House values have risen sharply because of a decade-long run-up in commodity prices, it said, plus “a rapid increase in Canadian mortgage and household debt which served to inflate housing prices through financial leverage, which is …unsustainable for the long run.”

The warning: “Our outlook on Canadian real-estate is negative and we believe Canadian housing will begin an extended contraction phase resulting in a move of home prices back towards long term sustainable valuations.”

The trigger could be one of many. Falling commodity prices. European debt. Sorry US growth. Or it could simply be unaffordable houses, too much building, debt saturation or rising rates. Take your pick. Almost all of these threats are with us today.

Of course, Fred might as well save his breath, and put his million into liquid assets. The government of Canada – the same one which greased the bubble with 0% down and 40-year mortgages, plus tax gifts for first-time buyers and a goosing of the RSP home buyer’s plan – won’t be tightening up on downpayments or amortizations any time soon. Likewise pooch Carney  won’t do what he knows is right, and rein in the debt orgy with a few rate spikes. They have the power to change what’s coming, but won’t.

I noticed some chatter on this blog yesterday that I don’t write it for common folk, but rather the maligned 1% – those people who actually have some wealth. I guess my sermons about diversifying, preferreds, bonds, ETFs and the sins of house-horniness are turning off the flock.

Too bad. But the flock’s fleeced.

 

172 comments ↓

#1 MarcFromOttawa on 10.26.11 at 9:36 pm

1st

#2 Hoof-Hearted on 10.26.11 at 9:41 pm

PhDrrrrzzzssttttt

#3 squidly77 on 10.26.11 at 9:48 pm

Great post and all too true.

#4 Dan in Victoria on 10.26.11 at 9:49 pm

Write it in Loglan, maybe they’ll understand that.

#5 SEven Stars and Orion on 10.26.11 at 9:49 pm

That graph is really unsettling me. How can anyone think it will keep climbing? Everyone I know thinks it will keep climbing. Is everyone I know an idiot?

#6 phinny on 10.26.11 at 9:53 pm

I happen to appreciate the investment stuff. Housings gone- and have no intention of dropping a penny into that abyss.

Started reading this blog a few years ago and because of this blog aggressively paid off every nickel we owed. Seriously.

Now that we’re out of debt (for which my boomer father labelled my frugal lifestyle ‘repulsive’) and the fact that we refuse to buy a house (for which my boomer father taunts me as a ‘loser’) life has been pretty damn good.

So, just for that the Garth-machine has been awesome. Bring on the investment bits- I’m working class and I’m all ears.

#7 Stinky the Fish on 10.26.11 at 10:01 pm

It’s now the “non-confident” economy known as Canada. Time for the debt collector to come and put Canadians on the chopping block. Seriously think we’re going to see some negative trends for the CDN housing market in the next year… finally..

#8 Mr. Lee on 10.26.11 at 10:03 pm

Pick your poison, over leverage, debt servicing, over mortaged, no retirment, no savings and the list goes on.

Even if Mr. Carney wanted to increase rates to stop this orgy, he can not because of too many influencing that are far more influential than him.

Get out of debt folks, stop spending your money in useless items and start investing in a blananced sort of fashion that Mr. Turner speaks of.

We are at a point of no return now, too many have consumed the Kool-Aid, the only question is whether the shock wave will be as severe as the the Doomers think it will be.

#9 LJ on 10.26.11 at 10:06 pm

Housing in Canada has been a speculative bet for some time now.

Those bets seem to go well, until they don’t anymore. And, we seem to have too many bettors at the table who have gone “all in” for the final round.

At this point, it is far too late for most….. When there are too many people on one side of the bet, it is an almost certain loss.

Ask our friends down south if you don’t believe me.

#10 GTA Girl on 10.26.11 at 10:12 pm

Garth, that picture is disturbing but so accurate.

The girl who works at the grocery store just bought a new build condo. She told me she was hoping to flip it in 2yrs.

I took this as a sign

That and the amount of bored 20 somethings in Yorkville last weekend shopping, all with Louis Vuitton, Holts shopping bags, who visited Cartier for baubles.

Carney is a douche

#11 Jsan on 10.26.11 at 10:16 pm

Looks like China’s housing bubble is beginning to crumble.

“Stunned. That probably best describes the mood of China’s vast pool of property owners. For the last few years, anyone with as much as a taxi driver’s salary has been speculating in the real estate market, scooping up off-plan properties at terms that would make a Countrywide mortgage broker blush………..”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-boots-ground-china-signs-slowdown-are-obvious

#12 I'm stupid on 10.26.11 at 10:21 pm

Garth all I hear is bla bla bla.

Options are available, to those wanting to keep their homes. Here are a couple that will save us.

http://mobile.associatedcontent.com/article/1066687/make_money_being_a_clinical_volunteer.html

Or this

http://toronto.nowtoronto.com/AdultJobs/top-agency-in-nyc-earn-well-over-30000-month-and-over-1k-a-day-realistically-31/8781831

The choice is yours.

#13 Mister Obvious on 10.26.11 at 10:21 pm

#5 SEven Stars and Orion

Is everyone I know an idiot?
——————————–

I doubt it. They’re just challenged in math, logic and history. But I’ll bet they’re all superstars in the humanities.

#14 Bottoms_Up on 10.26.11 at 10:25 pm

I guess I’m one of the 99% that Garth doesn’t help:

– he didn’t help me with his books, of which I’ve borrowed some of his golden oldies from the library, and purchased 3 copies of his recent two

– he didn’t help me think critically about buying a house, and didn’t serve to help me understand what type of real estate to buy

– he didn’t help me understand how the bubble was inflated, or how it can become deflated

– he didn’t recommend to me a real estate agent in the Toronto area

– he didn’t allow me to call him and chat for a few minutes about my finances and offer words of wisdom

– he didn’t help me with all his website blog posts, of which he hasn’t missed a day of work for 3 years

Oh, wait a minute, yes he did.

#15 Timing is Everything on 10.26.11 at 10:26 pm

70% understand there’s no way they can retire at 65.

65 is the new 55….seriously.

‘Canadians have one of the highest life expectancies in the world. On average, a 65 year-old man in Canada can expect to live another 17.4 years and a 65 year-old woman an additional 20.8 years. Most older Canadians will now live about 13 of those years after age 65 in good health.’ – CIHR

http://tinyurl.com/3df8p5q

#16 R. Bandiera on 10.26.11 at 10:29 pm

I have worked in the manufacturing sector for 22 yrs. Maybe it was inevitable but so called free trade ruined manufacturing in Ontario. There is only fair trade not free trade and slowly I have watched big company after big company leave Ontario for America and other foreign places and no one has said a word about it. When first implemented I remember Canadians were afraid of losing their cultural identity and culture was not on the table but I believe now no one would protest a peep if tariffs came down on books, magazines and movies. So who has the million or even 3 to $400,000 to buy a house in the GTA where do they work I want to apply surely they are not in manufacturing?

#17 sam.i.am on 10.26.11 at 10:29 pm

I’d like to see an overlay of interest rates on the chart. Look how the blue area got knocked down in the early 80’s.

#18 Not 1st on 10.26.11 at 10:30 pm

Boo Hoo Fred, you can’t afford a million plus home. tough, you shouldn’t have stood on the sidelines while the market moved. Like you said, a home is not a right.

Now go buy some RIM and watch it everyday while the rest of us tap our massive tax free capital gains and head for the good life.

#19 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.26.11 at 10:32 pm

What will stop the debt orgy?

How about the coming spike in Canadian unemployment due to public sector layoffs? (i.e. the Tony Clement mandate for all departments to cut 10%)

#20 Jsan on 10.26.11 at 10:33 pm

We will soon be seeing this same sort of price slashing all across Canada once our gargantuan Canadian real estate bubble begins to deflate. Again, it must hurt for those who snapped up properties at the top only to see a 50% loss in their investments.

“Prices for new units have been cut by as much as 50 per cent across much of British Columbia, as developers enrage current unit holders by offering previously unimaginable deals to new buyers in a desperate bid to generate the cash flow needed to pay bills and undertake further development. There have also been distressed sales of large resorts in Ontario, as deeply indebted owners sell at a loss to get out from under their debts.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/bcs-aviawest-resorts-seeks-creditor-protection/article2215143/

#21 Deano on 10.26.11 at 10:38 pm

I’m part of the 99%…that’s why I come to this blog. Sure Garth is part of the 1%, but they’re not all bad…hell, Buffet even wants to pay more in taxes!

That being said, there are a large number of people in the financial industry who should be strung up…..

#22 Observer on 10.26.11 at 10:40 pm

Artificially Low Interest Rates Do Permanent Economic Damage

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2010/11/17/artificially-low-interest-rates-do-permanent-economic-damage/

Here’s some reading material for Mr. Carney from Forbes.

#23 Euro Girl on 10.26.11 at 10:46 pm

“The flock is fleeced”_ Garth.
Genial! Only, the sheep benefit from the fleecing (keeps them cool in the summer) but the sheeple “flock” will be out in the cold. I am not heartless and I am not gloating about it, but a lot of people will be only getting theit just deserts, for being haughty and stubborn and never wanting to listen to reason.
As for househorniness ( or perhaps debthorniness) being like a disease…a little family drama: BIL got a mortgage in 98 to fix a delelict apartment for wich he has overpais. Wife said “we´ll fix it ourselves, we need a home, renting is trowing money away, homes always go up, etc, etc…BIL working 3 jobs,wife working part time,when the 2 bedroom 800 square ft flat is finished she need a cleaning lady, cant cook at home so they eat out more than half the time. After 12 years BIL working like a dog, manages to have the mortgage almost paid off, only a couple of years left, when he inherits a house with a garden a guest apartment and a living space over twice his flat. Oh joy! That seems just like the break he needs ( and deserves, since he´s such a great guy) True, the house needs some updating and a few cosmetic touches, nothing major, they could even move in as it is and do the work i na year or two, sell the flat, fix the guest apartment on the estate property and get a good cash flow from renting it to turist for a succulent rent ( all this is happening in a beautiful mediterranean country , one of the PIIGS). But to my dismay ( for I love the guy) there´s a change of plans and among the decorating magazines and the obnoxious debt-pushing relatives the “I don´t want to get mortgaged to my ears” turns into “I will have to borrow, I have to do the repairs” The “repairs” are granite countertops, (common here), jacuzzi, pool, outdoor kitchen, new landcaping, moving wall and plumbing, uniting the guest house to the main house (hence no renting, no income) and all the bells and whistles, plus more hours fron the cleaning lady, plus new furniture, plus plus plus.
(Over) appraised value of the flat 220,000 euros. Apraised value of the estate house 420,000 (underappraised for tax purposes????) New loan: 150,000 euros. Now, at first glance, the number don´t seem so bad, but! The stepchild, pushing 30 lives st home for free and mooches off the mom, looks like the flat will stay with the moocher and not be sold. BIL will be on the hook for a 25 year 150,000 euros mortgage. The guy is pushing 50 makes about 1800 euros month and his wife ( the one working part-time wearing designer clothes and having a cleaning lady for her 800 sq ft appartment, yes) 600 euros a month.
Today they visited and they were still saying prices won´t drop because people won´t sell at a loss, the crash has already happened and houses always go up.
Now, can you guess what country I am talking about?
Ir rimes with rain and plain. Any guesses?

#24 stevenson on 10.26.11 at 10:49 pm

Were we not having the same mentality a few years ago? Where are we now? So what is needed to throw us over the edge? Until there is something or someone that can control the global macro economics we can all continue our wishful thinking that the sky will fall and RE will tank.

That or maybe a giant tsunami hitting the east coast and a 9.0 magnitude earthquake hitting the West coast at the same time?

#25 Euro Girl on 10.26.11 at 10:52 pm

My apologies for the many misspelings. I am using a notebook and I can see, as they say here “tres en un burro” ( three riding a donkey)

#26 Euro Girl on 10.26.11 at 10:53 pm

I meant: “I can´t see”

#27 penpal on 10.26.11 at 10:54 pm

@ # 5 SEven Stars and Orion

Short answer – yes, definitely.

#28 Brad in Calgary on 10.26.11 at 10:56 pm

“Likewise pooch Carney won’t do what he knows is right, and rein in the debt orgy with a few rate spikes. They have the power to change what’s coming, but won’t. ”

I seem to remember a good looking fellow – bearded, muscular, irresistable to the ladies – predicting confidently (on this very blog a few months ago) that Carney was the type of guy who, indeed, would do the right thing. Now he’s a pooch?
What the heck happened?

Ask him. [email protected]. — Garth

#29 @crazyfasteddy on 10.26.11 at 11:04 pm

Ok cut all the pessimism on RE… The EFSF deal is done! Crisis over! Firing up the printing presses as we speak… Money as of now is officially worthless! Oil is going to $1000bbl! Commodities blast off! The DOW will rally 100 points per every £100 billion printed! Cocaine for everyone again! Release the clowns!!

As far as Real Estate in Canada is concerned? Buy now or forever be priced out! Haven’t you heard? Cocaine is back!

#30 Devore on 10.26.11 at 11:12 pm

#28 Brad in Calgary

Garth should have known better. Carney isn’t about to throw his party under the bus, so savers can make a couple more percent on their deposits, savers who are now a minority.

#31 the Phantom on 10.26.11 at 11:24 pm

Hey Garth and fellow bloggers (and lurkers too…haven’t forgotten you folk.

The levels of debt, the consumerism and efforts to satisfy that emptiness in the heart that many experience through shopping and spending money they don’t have; the shaky US economy and the estimated 600 trillion to 1.4 quadrillion dollars tied up in derivatives seems to be making for “the perfect storm.”

Garth I am not a doomer (or at least I don’t view myself that way) but there are those who speak about the derivatives market and say then if and when the house of cards come down, it is going to dwarf the influence of the 2008 scare.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-coming-derivatives-crisis-that-could-destroy-the-entire-global-financial-system

You may have to cut and paste into your browser…Ignore the bloggers at the end as well as the ads on either side and read the centre column…If I am deceived and this is false, I won’t be that upset.

Night All
the Phantom

#32 AlbertaGal on 10.26.11 at 11:31 pm

Hubby and I are boomers, who paid off our home decades ago. Will retire with decent pensions soon. But we still feel poor and getting poorer. Big debt is now the key to big ‘success’. We know how it happened–we’ve watched the same show you have. WHY will Carney and F not stop the madness? We’ve come to the conclusion that it’s not fear of recession stopping them as much as an obsession with protecting the fools they’ve empowered and enriched (on paper) with their lax mortgage policies and crazy-low interest rates. Their votes and their continued lending orgy are more important than those of us who have led responsible lives. Never felt so bitter in my life.

#33 DebtToDeath on 10.26.11 at 11:32 pm

Economy growth now mainly relies on Banks lending their printed from thin-air money to people for them to buy price inflated stuff they otherwise cannot afford at all. Corporate tax cut for the rich has not resulted in any employment boost. But the banks are not afraid of any failure because they know tax payer are finally on the hook and they are very comfortable to lend out the money (that they do not have at all) to gain fat profit …the little stupid guys will take the risk to gamble and to suffer…

#34 jas girn on 10.26.11 at 11:44 pm

I love you Garth, in a non-gay way. You speak the truth. Alleluiah!

#35 City Slicker on 10.26.11 at 11:44 pm

I seem to remember a good looking fellow – bearded, muscular, irresistable to the ladies – predicting confidently (on this very blog a few months ago) that Carney was the type of guy who, indeed, would do the right thing. Now he’s a pooch?
What the heck happened?

Ask him. [email protected]. — Garth
———————————————————
Pretty obvious the global economy is weakend more than predicted a few months ago. Situation is deteriorated so much any rise in int rates would be a nuclear bomb to the economy. Rates is something that can be controlled the other variables are not.

#36 wes_coast on 10.26.11 at 11:45 pm

I think a rate hold is prudent. Any increase in rates could be the pin the pricks the bubble. Rates should stay low to allow people to restructure for the long haul. Its the lending standards that are the issue. Like Fred said. 15 % down and 25 year amortization is a good start. Eliminating foreign investment in our houses is another. Most of all – get rid of the CMHC. Banks have no risk and have tonnes of profits thanks to the CMHC. Its no surprise that we are where we are and that its not getting better. As I type this the Greeks are getting off the hook for 50% of their debt. The problem is lending standards not rates. What ever systems exist to measure risk are short sighted or have been rendered useless with financial hocus pocus like credit default swaps and institutions like CMHC. All credit should be priced at the risk measured at the ground level. Any insurance purchased to protect the lender should not affect the risk profile. The under rated risk is still there and if allowed to multiply witin the system because its not being priced correctly you have a poweder keg like in 2008.

#37 The American on 10.26.11 at 11:50 pm

At #136 from the previous string: 19thBPOE, you need to provide your sources. Your source for this claim was the Vancouver Sun (the paper bought and sold by realturds). Also, pay more attention to your headlines and content.. The operative words here were RESALE prices. The market as a collective whole did not rise. This is realturd spin at its best. Clearly, the game is over because the semantics are getting more defined. You really have a hard-on for us Americans, don’t you! :-) You obsess over us. Very telling. Perhaps you should consider therapy and stop hiding in the bushes and jerking off to pictures of the U.S. Your fear and obsession is starting to show.

Here’s a better read for you from October 24th, 2011 from the Vancouver Sun: Vancouver Resales Rise in September as PRICES DROP FROM AUGUST (down 3.7% Month over Month, mind you, and that’s a hell of a lot):
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+resales+rise+September+prices+drop+from+August+survey/5597876/story.html

There you go. It is starting to happen. Those are facts for you, not jealousy. I’ll give you the link that you were too afraid to post because you were too afraid of telling the WHOLE TRUTH. God, you are pathetic.

#38 Painted Toenails on 10.26.11 at 11:53 pm

I was in ‘Rain’ about 4 years ago. Beautiful people. Beautiful country. We joked about ‘condo conroido’ being EVERYWHERE in the Costa del Sol. Hillsides, valleys, ridges, mountains, all smothered with white, chalky condos. Met a great guy, a 60ish Brit who had come to drink beer on the beach until his terminal cancer took him. He was looking to buy. I hope he’s still alive and drinking that beer. He’s about the only one who might not care what happens to his property value.

Life is short. Gotta be smart AND lucky to live a good life. But mostly smart.

#39 Tom from Mississauga on 10.26.11 at 11:54 pm

And yet we are seeing a nice rally in stocks that you wrote about earlier this month. My friends and colleagues are still too terrified by Toronto Star headlines to get in. I am now nicely up from the start of the year on my balanced portofolio that I did very little trading on this year. Come to this blog to find out what not to do but stay to find out what to actually do.

#40 johnny5z on 10.27.11 at 12:02 am

Get ready for it – the Minsky Moment. No matter how much condos or SFRs go down, wait til you see what happens to building lots and raw land. In Phoenix, homes are down 50% from their peak. Land is down 75% from its peak.

#41 renters rule on 10.27.11 at 12:12 am

What turned Carney from a “do the right thing” dude to a “pooch”?

How’s about he has not set his sights well beyond and outside of Canada in terms his “central banking” career…. and he is dependent on the gov’t of the day for endorsement/overseas promotion of his abilities, and having an economy (which is heavily healthy housing market dependent) that at least appears to be in a stable holding pattern, may be seen as a pre-requesent to whatever “promotion(s)” he is seeking…?

I know, I am a cynic…..

#42 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.11 at 12:17 am


If there were a seven figure sum available, it wouldn’t be an issue if one rented or owned.

$1 million invested in a good portfolio would give a $90K / year return, give or take and 80% of that wouldn’t even see the taxman’s grubby lil’ paws, so wot’s the problem?

Housing, along with H – F and the CPC are the flies in the ointment. One can avoid housing by renting instead, but the latter should be taken with a heavy dose of salt.

“The trigger could be one of many. So think about this. Seventy per cent of us have houses. Almost sixty per cent have no savings. Forty per cent can’t get through the month. Debt is rampant. Personal finances visibly crumbling. Can you imagine what the consequences would be if real estate – the salvation and religion of the masses – staggered?” — PIIGS 2 + All Of Eurozone, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre, Jason and Freddy and a Hallowe’en party, all rolled into one film.
*
#6 phinny — Agree. Investment advice is much better than RE. RE is a dead horse.

#21 Deano — “. . . there are a large number of people in the financial industry who should be strung up…..” — Whoa baby! Is that line right on the money! Toss several politicos in for good measure as well.
*
50% Greek haircut “The Greek rioters sent the message they would not pay a debt of their own making, and the bankers backed down! Americans need to do the same.” wrh.com, but Playboy’s US$100 mln. spree in Africa; Merkel Probably just rhetoric, but it goes with the link last night that said Germany may end up leaving the Euro, and joining forces with Russia; Wealth Disparity “The income disparity in the United States is greater than it was in Egypt when the Egyptian revolution ignited.” wrh.com; Unemployed Youth That is today’s depression.

Dirty Money and it’s new plastic Cdn. cash too! Global Revolution “All crises must be defined as time sensitive emergencies which require immediate action.”; World’s Richest Man says bailouts are wrong; Consumers Spending More . . . on alcohol.

Nov. 9, 2011 or 11-9-11 It’s coming, and so is xmas! Dreamliner Boeing’s new plastic plane lifts off; 70 Million? Not if there is a mini ice age; Gun Ownership climbing. I wonder why? Profiling The FBI is very good at it; Ocrap Creating the revolution in the US; US – Pakistan One has the distinct impression that Pakistan couldn’t care less about the US, as China is a far more politically stable ally; Russia – China Resetting the relations.

#43 Crash Callaway on 10.27.11 at 12:55 am

$400,000 townhouses sums it up pretty good.
We’re screwed, we give idiots a bad name.

#44 Van guy waiting on 10.27.11 at 1:05 am

Only in Van East……..idiots???

1504 GRAVELEY ST
MLS® V915254
33×78 lot
2736sqft house built 1912
Asking $998,000
SOLD for $1,175,000 after 5 days on the market

That person must be so horny to buy in an area with prostitutes and junkies. This aint HAM either. There are many more wars for sfu in Van East. Everywhere else in the lower mainland is very quiet with steadily increasing inventory.

#45 Rich Renter on 10.27.11 at 1:27 am

Don’t worry Father Garth the 99% of people who don’t post all the time or not at all, appreciate and understand your sermon.

#46 Carp on 10.27.11 at 1:29 am

This website that just open is great! From my perspective, it show realtors putting lipstick on a pig.

I’m glad I sold my place last year and renting the place I can’t afford (but should) until sellers realize their “investment” just aren’t worth that much.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/listings-website-pries-open-property-data-vault/article2213616/

http://www.zoocasa.com/en/zoopraisal#

#47 scib on 10.27.11 at 2:20 am

Is it not obvious that we and most of the economically linked world are held hostage to US economic policy.
If the US can’t pay their debts they lower interest rates to make it easier for their governments to get elected. (vote buying)
Everyone else in the world that wants to sell a widget to them or anyone else must lower interest rates in kind in order to keep their own currency from rising and destroying their own export industries.
Yeah, its great to have a strong currency and you can travel cheap, but once an industry leaves, all the support companies fold and you cant start that up in a few weeks just because your currency went back down again.
So the only thing to do is to KOW TOW to the USA and follow their lead, right or wrong. That way your country will at least hold on to the jobs it has.
Im sure our spineless government knows this all too well.

#48 meslippery on 10.27.11 at 2:36 am

Really Fred define decent.
$million I can find you a nice house, in the boonies.
$800 000 K left over @ 6% (next year $20 000 TFSA)
is $48k a year with house paid for.

Little part time work as you see fit and all the time in
the word to do what you want.

meslippery

Side bar
Who know beach girl worked as a reporter for The Huffington Post?

#49 Bob From Winnipeg on 10.27.11 at 2:49 am

The study also found nearly half of people in the prairies aren’t saving for a rainy day fund with 27 per cent saying they dip into their savings for every day spending or emergency.

27 year old Jason Andrews says he’s struggling to save money these days.

“It still just seems like you could never really get ahead, it’s tough to save,” said Andrews.

Andrews who recently bought Winnipeg Jets season tickets says he now plans on cutting back on expenses he doesn’t really need.
_________________________________
http://www.globalwinnipeg.com/half+of+manitobans+not+saving+their+money+report/6442509061/story.html

#50 BPOE on 10.27.11 at 3:18 am

“– won’t be tightening up on downpayments or amortizations any time ”
***************************************
Bottom line – this is what I have been pounding the table about for months while complete uneducated unemployed people like The American talk about epic price reductions – The true fool of fools. Folks, remember the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? The same scam except pro renters like The American spin bogus tails of “epic” price reductions. What a maroon. Folks, end of 2011 is nigh and another beauty in BPOE

#51 BPOE on 10.27.11 at 3:20 am

Zero hedge is a bunch of bull
***********************************
Jsan on 10.26.11 at 10:16 pm
Looks like China’s housing bubble is beginning to crumble.

“Stunned. That probably best describes the mood of China’s vast pool of property owners. For the last few years, anyone with as much as a taxi driver’s salary has been speculating in the real estate market, scooping up off-plan properties at terms that would make a Countrywide mortgage broker blush………..”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-boots-ground-china-signs-slowdown-are-obvious
.

#52 Betty Danin on 10.27.11 at 3:27 am

Government can not create wealth it can merely transfer wealth. The private sector is the only wealth creator and nothing will ever change this.

#53 Humpty Dumpty on 10.27.11 at 3:34 am

They have the power to change what’s coming, but won’t.

Doug Casey makes it very clear why they won’t change the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNDIHmVORq0&feature=related

#54 plain_janey on 10.27.11 at 4:07 am

#13 Mister Obvious

Is everyone I know an idiot?
——————————–

I doubt it. They’re just challenged in math, logic and history. But I’ll bet they’re all superstars in the humanities.
—————

They do seem challenged in logic, math and especially history, although I believe the latter is considered part of the humanities at most universities…

As for the 1%, I don’t have the kind of ‘wealth’ to qualify for that group, but just gettting some financial awareness, coming to understand real estate as a (volatile) asset class rather than an entitlement and learning about diversifying and staying liquid is all priceless advice, so many thanks GT, you’ve opened my eyes over the last couple years.

#55 Aussie Roy on 10.27.11 at 4:39 am

Aussie Update

Nice article today Garth, great to be back.

There goes the packed student houses

Thousands of students failed the Australian visa test

http://www.news.com.au/national/thousands-of-students-failed-the-australian-visa-test/story-e6frfkvr-1226175716625#ixzz1bs5vFgZy

CLEARANCE rates for commercial property auctions have nosedived as sellers and buyers take a wait and see approach, research by RP Data has revealed.

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/buyer-caution-sees-properties-unsold/story-e6frfmd0-1226175837913#ixzz1bs64771A

THE Reserve Bank has deliberately held off lifting interest rates this year because a large number of Australians are experiencing mortgage stress and might not be able to sell their way out of trouble.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/investigations/rba-holds-as-home-owners-sink-under-debt/story-fn8r0e18-1226175637282

Melbourne:- The Kavanagh-Putland Index, which examines the ratio of property sales to GDP, has fallen to a 12-year low. A fall in market turnover precedes a fall in land values by one to two quarters, which then foreshadows recession

http://www.prosper.org.au/2011/10/26/imminent-recession-forecast-by-kavanagh-putland-index/

Australia has a shortage of land and houses, um?.

Property glut leaves prices languishing in capital cities

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/property-glut-leaves-prices-languishing-in-capital-cities/story-e6frfmd0-1226178288725#ixzz1by9r9gpK

Auction clearance rates continue to fall

http://www.myrp.com.au//showNews.do?id=504

Brisbane house prices keep getting flogged

Brisbane homes cheapest as prices fall again

http://www.couriermail.com.au/life/homesproperty/brisbane-cheapest-as-home-prices-fall/story-e6frequ6-1226177753008

It’s one thing to argue that Sydney has among the best prospects for house pricces in the country and Melbourne among the worst.

And another to identify those house prices as historically high across the nation.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/demographics-cast-a-shadow-over-property-market-20111026-1mizf.html

#56 Off the River on 10.27.11 at 5:31 am

Scary stuff indeed. I take solace that I have no debt, no mortgage and a few hundred thousand dollars (the equivalent in Korean Won) in savings.

Unfortunately I don’t really know what to do with it. The Korean rental system allows for a huge downpayment and no rent. I have the rest in savings accounts paying 6% and a few stocks.

I sure like to find something safe to pay me 10% over ten years; nothing to worry about, just let it sit and wait.

Then there is my burning question that never seems to be answered: Will the Canadian dollar crash? especially vs Asian currency?

#57 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.27.11 at 6:50 am

Thanks to the “deal” that was reached on Greek debt, Dow/S&P/Nasdaq futures are up 2%+ in the pre-market:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937

Now, what will the Goldmans/JPMorgans/etc. of the world come up with about 3pm EST today to tank the markets? (after they sell and take the 4% profit from the past 2 days)

#58 Cow Man on 10.27.11 at 7:02 am

Amigos:

If the message from European Leaders is, ” go ahead default”, the world will go on, then why not the “flippers”? I find the decision on the other side of the pond is “sickening”. Now all heavy debtors will think that they can do the same. And, maybe they can. The war is on against savers.

#59 JO on 10.27.11 at 7:08 am

The entire economy over the last 8-9 yrs has been an illusion of massive debt which served to inflate the cost of our living and make a small number of RE and banking execs rich.

This junk, neo liberal economic model rests on financialization of everything – they will not stop until they have put everyone into debt, or otherwise paying fees, etc.

The joke has been and will continue to be on taxpayers. We guarantee the CMHC insurance the banks use to make knowingly unaffordable mortgages which drives the prices up. That helps your gov’t through higher property taxes and a short term boost in tax revenues while the debt bubble is ongoing. Sadly, while the senior bank execs get off laughing, the corruption extends to the public union leadership and your elected whore, oops, elected politicans. They make extremely generous deals promising inflated benefits based on the debt bubble GDP and asset prices.

When this comes to an end, and it will, the joke will get even better. Watch your property taxes, user fees, etc explode as desperate gov’ts look to squeeze whatever is left out of us to make their corrupt, inflated promises to the civil serpents.

End CMHC/NHA, End 1 % interest rates, and end PS union extortion.

JO

#60 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.27.11 at 7:09 am

According to that RBC recent consumer confidence survey:

“Nearly six in 10 British Columbians – 58 per cent – are not saving for a rainy-day fund, while 32 per cent are using savings for daily expenses or emergencies, according to the October RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index released Wednesday.

While the B.C. numbers are slightly higher than the national average – 57 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively – British Columbians also intend to take action in managing their finances in the coming year, with 28 per cent planning to reduce debt, 30 per cent planning to spend less, 19 per cent hoping to save or invest more and 24 per cent planning to do all three.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/British+Columbians+savings+hold+down+bills/5614491/story.html

So, nearly 60% have zero savings right now, but 28% plan to reduce debt next year… ya, right – not unless everyone decides to sell their homes, or suddenly B.C. introduces an “inverse HST” that acutally gives you back 13% when you buy things.

#61 Moneta on 10.27.11 at 7:29 am

65 is the new 55….seriously
——-
Except they make you redundant at 50.

#62 Danforth on 10.27.11 at 7:34 am

A lot of personal finance rules-of-thumb apply to everyone regardless of income.

We all need to to expect that even if we _want_ to work (to keep busy), or _need_ to work (for income), the year will come when we’re older that we don’t have the physical faculties to put in full days at work.

And we need to expect that we’ll be living for a number of years when we have no income.

And the government of Canada pension isn’t enough to buy the groceries.

So…Personal Finance planning applies to everyone, no dividing line of 1% / 99% or anything in between.

Anyone who ignores this reality becomes part of the “Seniors Tsunami” about to hit as the Boomers hit retirement without sufficient funds in the bank.

#63 HouseBuster on 10.27.11 at 8:13 am

#12 – Women only? That’s discrimination.

#64 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.27.11 at 8:21 am

@ #49 Bob From Winnipeg:

27 year old Jason Andrews says he’s struggling to save money these days.

“It still just seems like you could never really get ahead, it’s tough to save,” said Andrews.

Andrews who recently bought Winnipeg Jets season tickets says he now plans on cutting back on expenses he doesn’t really need.

That made my day (and almost made me spit out my coffee) – classic!

#65 Ray MacDonald on 10.27.11 at 8:27 am

Do senior boomers think that they are just going to stay on past 65 in their lucrative current job? Not too likely if the employer can help it.
I retired at 58. My employer wasn’t crazy about it but soon managed to hire a couple of new graduates to replace me – probably for less. None of my bosses lasted past the age of 60 in the company. I’m sure that Management would have been glad to see the back of me at that age had I not gotten out sooner.
I’ll be 65 soon and if I were looking for a job, I see that Tim’s is having a job fair in my town. That is the kind of stuff a post 65 worker will get.
If one has the talent (and energy) for it, one’s own business is the way to go after 65. As for me, I’ll fix my neighbors’ computers and play with my grandson.

#66 daystar on 10.27.11 at 8:27 am

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/home-prices-at-record-but-confidence-falls

The CREA is at it again. Resales hit record highs so the industry is in excellent shape! And the listings? Sales volumes? Uhuh. These are past tense numbers, readers. Simply put, buyer beware. The market tipped in May in my opinion. Listings have risen and sales have dropped since then and these trends will continue while the tale end of the wealth effect pushes values higher. The exact same thing happened in the U.S. in 2005, so… buyer beware!

#67 detalumis on 10.27.11 at 8:37 am

#15. I would suggest that 65 is not the new 55, IMHO 50 is the new 90, Zoomer mag is now geared to 45 – you can join and get a magazine with all the step in bath and “help I fell and I can’t get up” ads. The second you turn 50, especially for women,you are completely invisible and lumped in demographically with 90 year olds – absolutely no one markets anything to you. They say if you watch TV and flip channels it will take almost an hour to find a woman over 65 – try it sometime.

I also don’t think the life expectancy over 65 thingie is very indicative of any trend. Increasing the years of disability by 3 years over the last 40 and spending the last 7 in LTC with dementia is hardly a great improvement.

#68 Marchy on 10.27.11 at 8:43 am

Canadian real estate is a ticking time bomb.it’s gonna be a bumpy ride ahead for those who are mortgaged to the max

#69 Tiglath-Pilesar III on 10.27.11 at 9:15 am

Freddie, oh Freddie. The homes you are looking at are over a million. There are homes to be had in Toronto for a million and they are decent homes off the subway line to boot. You are obviously looking at some very nice areas.

#70 Hammer1 on 10.27.11 at 9:22 am

The euro banks are getting their bailout..electronic money printing on a massive scale..the world debt bubble just got a big blast of air..whoosh !!
we just moved ever closer to that beast named hyperinflation. It’s just nature at work. It happens every once in awhile.and should not really surprise. It’s very painful as nature can be. History shows us that it appears from virtually nowhere.
Markets are happy now for the time being but we all definitely just entered the “on ramp” to stagflation and hyperinflation. this isn’t doomerism, just reality that hasn’t arrived yet. Will I be ready for it? No.(‘m a 99%er too), but even they who visit here regularly, who feel confident and invested safely will be burnt in the forest fire. good luck.

You have no idea what hyperinflation is, if you claim we’re headed for it. This will not materialize in Canada, the US or any major Euro economy. — Garth

#71 Sky on 10.27.11 at 9:30 am

I’m not quite there yet, but I’ve been joking with my friends for years that 60 is the new 80. They used to get a chuckle. Now that they’re pushing 60 they don’t laugh anymore.

One of my girlfriends used this expression with her children and the other day one of her exhausted daughters complained, ” And mum, 30 is the new 50″.

Most of the boomers I know are burned out. Especially the women. Shingles, high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes are rampant. Many are hobbling around with artificial knees and hips ( sport’s injuries or excess weight induced).

Then there’s the lack of attention span. ADHD has been replaced with CPA- continual partial attention. Just about everybody’s suffering from this. Pop quiz. What was the title of Garth’s latest piece here? No cheating.

Quantity of life is overrated. It’s quality of life that counts.

#72 johnny C on 10.27.11 at 9:42 am

Ladies we have a problem in the GTA. Spoke to an executive with Remax. She noted the following. High end properties in gta 750+ are not moving. Properties within 399 and 599 moving well. Only problem is gap has closed substantially. The high end homes are now moving closer to middle and low end price. This has put pressure on properties in the 600K range and becoming worrisome.
In short this means a couple looking at a property in 699 range is 100 to 200 away from a property that was 1.2MM a few months ago. The market is in correction mode.

#73 TaxHaven on 10.27.11 at 9:42 am

The national pastimes in Canada are navel-gazing, rosy optimism, live-and-let-live passivity and TRUST IN GOVERNMENT. Let ’em sink.

#74 Van guy waiting on 10.27.11 at 9:51 am

Anyone,

How much money does a person get for owning a heritage home in Vancouver?

#75 The American on 10.27.11 at 9:59 am

At #50: 19th BPOE, here’s some more great bathroom material for you. By the way, maroon is a color. Any moron would know that. And you want to call ME uneducated? Please:

Vancouver Home Prices Drop in August
http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/to-market-to-market/2011/08/05/vancouver-real-estate-prices-drop/

Vancouver Sales Drop from August:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+resales+rise+September+prices+drop+from+August+survey/5597876/story.html

Vancouver New Home Sales Drop:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+homes+selling+prices+drop+August+StatsCan/5540720/story.html

Vancouver Home Prices Dropped 2.8%
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2010/09/02/bc-vancouver-real-estate-prices.html

Prices Drops in May of 2.1%
http://www.realestatevancouver2010.com/market.html

Price Drops in June
http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/07/vancouver-real-estate-june-2011s-average-price/

http://valuabledirt.com/2011/07/11/vancouver-home-sales-dip-in-june/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/07/06/bc-june-vancouver-real-estate.html

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=9c441a40-1337-4171-bbac-ab5a692e3a5d

Vancouver Drops in July:
http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/730-vancouver-price-and-sales-drop-prompts-concern

This one is my favorite. Made me spew coffee all over my screen out of laughter. “…a more balanced market.” That means its sales are tanking:
http://www.buyric.com/news/2011/08/greater-vancouver-home-sales-decline-prices-stable-july-2011-242/

And the MUST READ LINKS OF THE DAY for 19thBPOE so he can educate himself!!!:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=realturd
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=realtwhore
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moron_(psychology)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stupidity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delusional

The prices have dropped in May, June, July, August, September and so on. Your media is doing a tremendous job of muddying the truth by using pretty verbiage such as, “balanced.” No, no, no, this is a temporary point in time, but the market itself is not balanced. The market has peaked and is beginning to crack. Just piece it together, and you can see month-over-month price drops and sales drops in what are typically the hottest months to purchase a home. Fall and Winter months are even slower, and it is upon us. The end is nigh, and 19thBPOE is still a moron.

#76 ts harpoon on 10.27.11 at 9:59 am

Garth,

With respect to “the maligned 1%”, I am hoping that fellow bloggers take a moment to view the link below where Charlie Rose interviews Amy Goodman and Chris Hedges. Here, Goodman and Hedges provide a compelling narrative /argument for the current “Occupy” movement.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11961

I will again, admit my appreciation to this blog for on-going “research”. I am equally appreciative for those safeguard systems in Canada that did not allow our banks to act like hedge funds.

Thanks for grass-roots media (not main stream media) for bringing attention to our American cousins who are suffering much, perhaps through their own actions (to which you often use as example to avoid) and quite possibly as a result of the “much aligned 1%” combined with an absent political left.

You are right. This will not end well.

#77 With great power... on 10.27.11 at 10:17 am

“They have the power to change what’s coming, but won’t.”

Why is this?

#78 Daisy Mae on 10.27.11 at 10:31 am

Christmas gift-buying this year will be very interesting….

#79 Daisy Mae on 10.27.11 at 10:35 am

Phinny: “Now that we’re out of debt (for which my boomer father labelled my frugal lifestyle ‘repulsive’) and the fact that we refuse to buy a house (for which my boomer father taunts me as a ‘loser’) life has been pretty damn good.”

**********************************

That’s very sad. But the fact you know it’s not true, is all that matters.

#80 Fady on 10.27.11 at 10:39 am

Hi
I don’t get what is going on in our economy here. We have inflation, record consumer and government debts, low interest rates. On the other hand articles on the Financial Post that read: House prices grow in September year on year, more growth in income forecasts for Q4 2011 and 2012. Yet no one is talking about the real growth after you take in account how inflation and low interest rates are eroding the capital and its earnings (pension funds for example) surely investors are thinking about this, are they? weird!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#81 skyfalling on 10.27.11 at 10:39 am

ok, like always….nothing will happen. There is not reason anymore of a real estate market crash or discount. Everything is good again according to media. Time to go out and buy a house before start increasing in price. See ya.

#82 disciple on 10.27.11 at 11:07 am

Global competition for the 99% means competing for jobs with slave labourers.
Global competition for the 1% means competing for a larger proportion of control of the wealth those slave labourers produce.

Oligarchy. Corporate capitalism does not produce wealth. It produces nothing but misery, even for those at the top of the pyramid. Divert the flow of your money out of corporate capitalism. How?

First, central banking must be allowed to fail under the weight of its own pyramid scheme. Those who have invested in that pyramid scheme would lose their investments, which is why they cling to the hypocritical nonsense of TooBigToFail.
Second, there must follow a time period of TOTAL anarchy, but one without violence or aggression.
Thirdly, out of these ashes of our pretentious civilization, there must be an awakening of the realization that wealth CANNOT be stored, it must be distributed constantly throughout the markets to be useful.

The “sin” in the Garden of Eden was attaching monetary value to our own environment, to things, to our world, which is indeed priceless, and not a basket of commodities. But that’s too much to understand, eh?

That’s what the serpent did. And that’s what the descendants of his union with Eve continue to do, and mind control you, who are of Adam, to also do.

#83 Raven on 10.27.11 at 11:08 am

I would love to have the problem of what to do with one million in the bank. Alas, I do not. However, I am taking advantage of the current rate hold to pay off my existing debt as quickly as I can. A massive loan I hold from the past will be paid off by this June (took 5 years of extra jobs, living in a small affordable apartment in Vancouver (yes, such thing exists), and falling rates to keep plunking the money down on that millstone).

True, my emergency fund savings is getting nada as it sits with the Orange guy but at least I have real money to draw on if I need it, not some illusory equity that may not be accessible. When I am debt free (soon!) I will begin to consider all the great investment advice Garth has given us. For the moment, my focus is on being beholden to no one financially. I will be free of debt, healthy, well employed, with all the choice in the world about how I shape my next steps.

I think a some smart people know how to leverage debt. Most do not. I do not believe debt is good for most, despite the many lures that seem to be out there as quick ways to make money. Borrow at 3%, earn a fortune. Come on, it’s easy and everyone is doing it. I need to learn more before deciding if that is a path I want to go down.

Thanks for the continuing advice, insight and straight talk, Garth.

#84 Robert Dudek on 10.27.11 at 11:09 am

Government can not create wealth it can merely transfer wealth. The private sector is the only wealth creator and nothing will ever change this.

You keep living in your fantasy world with your cozy shibboleths.

#85 LSC on 10.27.11 at 11:10 am

Question;

Would “No Savings” mean cash in the bank or would it also include RSP? When you make this statement does that mean nothing outside of a defined benefit/defined contribution plan?

Thanks

#86 Form Man on 10.27.11 at 11:13 am

Excellent post Garth,

The ‘green shoots’ Devil’s Advocate referred to in yesterday’s post relate to the U.S. economy, not Canada’s. In fact those green shoots should have DA worried because as the U.S. economy gathers speed, interest rates are sure to follow upwards. That will quickly put an end to the last few subprime buyers that realtors are managing to scrape from the bottom of the barrel. Also note that yesterday the Canadian Federation of Independent Business awarded Kelowna the ‘most business-friendly city in B.C.’, ( read developer-friendly). Astonishingly, Kelowna has a housing glut.
This confirms the assertions I made last week. Assertions that caused a scoffing DA to question my business credentials. Dare we suppose that DA may be wrong on other issues ? Surely Kelowna’s economic problems will be solved when an even more developer-friendly council is installed……..this should be obvious to everyone…..
There you have it. No 911 comments and definitely no new-age comments. I am off to watch my son in soccer play-offs…..a good day to all.

#87 refinow on 10.27.11 at 11:14 am

The fix is more than most can swollow…

First of all, increasing minimum downpayments and reducing amortizations is only the tip of the credit iceberg.

The real fix lies in revamping the entire mortgage application to reflect accurate real life current expenses. The actual mortgage application that all the Bank’s are using and debt sevicing ratios that they are using to qualify people is exactly the same as it was in the 70’s and 80’s. Mind you a couple of years ago we had to increase the heating expense from $85 to $100.

It amazes me that the same qaulification calcualtions will be used for “Octomom” and a duel income family with no kids. Is that really fair to make nieve first time homebuyers believe everything is fine because the Bank says you qualify.

Most young families largest monthly expenses do not even appear on the mortgage application. Food and daycare.

Having 3 kids myself my monthly food bill is easily $1200 per month, and when my kids were in daycare I was easily paying $1200 per month.

So where does this money come from ???

The debt servicing ratios of 32% and 40% are really only applicaible to duel income families with no kids…

So if you want that $1,000,000 McMansion, solution is simple….DONT HAVE KIDS !!!

#88 bill on 10.27.11 at 11:17 am

well Garth , I took you up on that offer. thanks for Mr Carneys’ email…

#89 Peakoilist on 10.27.11 at 11:50 am

You have no idea what hyperinflation is, if you claim we’re headed for it. This will not materialize in Canada, the US or any major Euro economy. — Garth

oh Garth, there you go again….I don’t think that you have any clue either really…or you would explain why endless monetizing of debt will be a good thing.
Like you always say Garth , and I’ll use your very words ..”this will not end well”.
You are one of the 1%ers that are very happy with the Euro developments.
you can go ahead and delete me but the 1% will always try to silence the 99%.
The 1% will never be satisfied until they have it all….

What does any of that pitiful rhetoric have to do with hyperinflation predictions? It still won’t happen. — Garth

#90 David B on 10.27.11 at 12:00 pm

What is going on with Europe and The Euro is like housing in Canada’s rich areas …. the more money you throw at it the worst the deal becomes …

Latest news from the Economist

Europe’s rescue plan

This week’s summit was supposed to put an end to the euro crisis. It hasn’t

———————–

We here have been made well aware of the line: The devil is in the details ….. well hang on for a rough ride perhaps Garth will explain Bonds & a 50% haircut CDS’s and SVP’s and China un willingness to part with cash to short up a false firewall

————————–

Oh happy Days

#91 vyw on 10.27.11 at 12:11 pm

The Bank of Canada is saying that fiscal austerity restrains growth: “The combination of ongoing deleveraging by banks and households, increased fiscal austerity, and declining business and consumer confidence is expected to restrain growth across the advanced economies.”

Mr. Carney seems to be hinting that fiscal spending would be welcomed. Scroll through the report http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/mpr-october2011.pdf

and you will find that BoC forecasts flat consumer and Govt spending hence the lower GDP forecast to 2013.

#92 Peakoilist on 10.27.11 at 12:13 pm

#82 disciple
great post..
the rich are terrified of anything even remotely close to the scenario that you describe. Did you see the look in F’s eyes this week as he prayed for a Euro resolution. He looked scared with deep creases across his forehead. The politicians (the 1%) are very scared right now..they try not to show it. The haircuts are coming..will that be a fauxhawk or a buzzcut?
We have nothing to be afraid of, no matter what happens..Why should we be afraid of nature taking its true course?

I think you’re losing it. — Garth

#93 The American on 10.27.11 at 12:40 pm

And, just for fun. This video is a REAL campaign video for Herman Cain, Republican Candidate in 2012. Its pretty damn funny.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM

#94 pathrik M on 10.27.11 at 12:52 pm

House prices always go up and never go down- which means there is no bubble.

#95 bigrider on 10.27.11 at 1:01 pm

Love the chart. Pretty much sums it up.

#96 Fabrega on 10.27.11 at 1:02 pm

Every buble finds its pin…it is just a question of time.

What p***** me off is the system rewarding irresponsible and reckless behavior and punishing savers.

#97 Soylent Green is People on 10.27.11 at 1:05 pm

• Circling by potential leadership rivals, led by Jim Flaherty. The federal finance minister is reportedly tired of the heavy international travel required in his job, which keeps him away from his Whitby home for long stretches at a time. Also, Flaherty realizes his boss, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, isn’t likely to step aside until well after the next election in 2015. Flaherty, who finished second to Eves in the 2002 provincial leadership race, has made little secret that he wants to run his own show.

At the same time, Flaherty’s wife, MPP Christine Elliott, who ran and lost against Hudak in 2009 for the party leadership, is said to be tiring of Queen’s Park and would happily step aside for her husband to run in her Whitby-Oshawa riding.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1076542–hepburn-are-hudak-s-days-numbered#.TqlvTylzUpw.facebook

#98 Soylent Green is People on 10.27.11 at 1:07 pm

Hey, just realized clicking my name transports you to a magical place. Sweet.

Below article applies to the Liberals in Canada as well. Chris H. is married to a Canadian…

………………….

Do Not Pity the Democrats
Monday 13 September 2010, by: Chris Hedges | Truthdig | Op-Ed

snip snip: There are no longer any major institutions in American society, including the press, the educational system, the financial sector, labor unions, the arts, religious institutions and our dysfunctional political parties, which can be considered democratic.

The intent, design and function of these institutions, controlled by corporate money, are to bolster the hierarchical and anti-democratic power of the corporate state.

http://www.truth-out.org/do-not-pity-democrats63204

These institutions, often mouthing liberal values, abet and perpetuate mounting inequality. They operate increasingly in secrecy. They ignore suffering or sacrifice human lives for profit. They control and manipulate all levers of power and mass communication. They have muzzled the voices and concerns of citizens. They use entertainment, celebrity gossip and emotionally laden public-relations lies to seduce us into believing in a Disneyworld fantasy of democracy.”

#99 scared on 10.27.11 at 1:07 pm

Carney even looks evil. Look into his eyes (windows to his soul) there’s something very dark and sinister about him. I think that if there was a Carney mask available for Halloween, that would be the scariest costume this year.

#100 bigrider on 10.27.11 at 1:10 pm

Just curious, why do stocks have to take the brunt of punishment when stresses occur in other parts of the econnomy or world.

Lets see. Greek default, stocks fall. Bad mortgages on over inflated houses (circa 2008 U.S) stocks fall. Iran threatens nuclear capability stocks fall. Tsunami’s, earthquakes, stocks fall. Somebody takes a shit somewhere, plugs the proverbial toilet, yup you guessed it stocks fall.

Seems like when someone or something takes a shit, it always lands on equities. Why?

Does Coca Cola, McDonalds or Diageo etc. really have to have a share price drop over all of the above?

Maybe we should start picking on houses for the next ten years. Stocks have been beaten up enough over past ten.

#101 Toon Town Boomer on 10.27.11 at 1:11 pm

Wow , the guy has a million bucks and can’t buy a house. Just shows how ridiculous the housing economy truly is.

#102 Soylent Green is People on 10.27.11 at 1:16 pm

He really loses it at the 4:25 point, great rant, that’s how I feel every day for the last 2 years…

He wants to know: Is anybody going to stand up to the financial terrorists?

He says China is buying up as much gold as it can get it’s hands on because they know the US dollar is going to tank and then we’ll be on a gold standard.

……………..

Max Keiser: Debt slash – a debt hike, collapse guaranteed!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8sK9gZEUac

#103 Fabrega on 10.27.11 at 1:19 pm

#36 wes_coast

What a bunch of crock, dude. Pricking a buble should be the first goal of a central banker moron.

By the way, does anyone here knows what a central bank is?

#104 Unusual Business Ideas on 10.27.11 at 1:26 pm

Want more evidence the world has gone crazy?

A hedge fund makes trades based on the “mood” of people on Twitter…

http://www.businessunusual.net/misc/twitterhedgefundmanagers/

#105 Devore on 10.27.11 at 1:26 pm

#60 T.O. Bubble Boy

Talk about crappy consumer sentiment. 2/3rds are barely saving anything and even a small emergency will put a squeeze on them, 30% plan to spend less, and only 25% think Canada’s economy will improve next year.

This is bullish for real estate. Buy now before prices increase 10% next year.

#106 Peakoilist on 10.27.11 at 1:37 pm

I think you’re losing it. — Garth

thanks, that’s the most nice thing you ever said to me.
:~)

#107 Moneta on 10.27.11 at 1:39 pm

1%
———–
BTW… to be part of the 1%, you’ve got to have a net worth of at least 5 million in Canada.

#108 The InvestorsFriend on 10.27.11 at 1:42 pm

A BANNER DAY FOR THE 1%…

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-banner-day-for-the-1-as-bank-stocks-soar-2011-10-27?siteid=yhoof

Bank stocks up lots, including mine… Thank You. …Belch…

Although the article says it won’t last…

#109 Moneta on 10.27.11 at 1:43 pm

Wow , the guy has a million bucks and can’t buy a house. Just shows how ridiculous the housing economy truly is.
——
People think a million bucks is a lot. Obviously they still don’t understand what is going on.

People think they are rich when they are not.

#110 disciple on 10.27.11 at 1:55 pm

Here is the big picture:

The estimated wealth of the Rothschilds dynasty stands at well over 500 trillion dollars – yes, with a T.
The Queen of England can bail out and support half the world. The Vatican, the other half.

Now, am I saying that it would be ethically right or even necessary that they should? Not at all. But what I am pointing out, should be obvious to those who can’t do the math. There is plenty of “money” in existence, to support as many planets as we see fit. The fact that you allow the priestly class and financial parasite class to fool you into believing otherwise, is indicative of mental manipulation.

I’m just stating the facts.

#111 stevenson on 10.27.11 at 1:55 pm

Dow Soars 300 points. Economy has growth in the US. Now whats the next thing you’re waiting for to crack this RE market? Euro will be saved at all costs so…. stay tuned.

Yet again.

#112 Blacksheep on 10.27.11 at 2:04 pm

Disciple # 82,

“That’s what the serpent did. And that’s what the descendants of his union with Eve continue to do, and mind control you, who are of Adam, to also do.”

Are you speaking metaphorically?

take care,
Blacksheep

#113 Timing is Everything on 10.27.11 at 2:11 pm

#108 Moneta – People think they are rich when they are not.

Define rich? Hint-> It does not have a dollar value, per se.

#114 sam.i.am on 10.27.11 at 2:15 pm

I read through the linked report in its entirety, and many of the topics Garth has touched upon for the last little while are covered. Interesting to see how the dots are being connected.

Those who listened to the Tues concall would have taken away these two significant items (amongst others):

1) vix falling
2) s&p p/e ratio below historic averages

It now seems that the the stars are aligning.

The great thing about this blog is it really is for everyone, not just the 1%. The info is there, what you choose to do with it is up to you.

#115 bigrider on 10.27.11 at 2:38 pm

Area C3 on MLS. GTA prices for homes/semis have gone from high 280’s back in 2008 Garth, to low to mid 500’s. Definitely one of those ‘regional areas’ you speak of in terms of ‘sticky’ pricing. Major road improvements and general upgrade of area underway.

I have an italian friend with three, multi unit apartment rental properties in the area all purchased for high 200’s , fixed up for less than 30k each, carrying comfortably with money to spare.

Told him to sell one , pocket substantial profit ,as a hedge against remaining.

No way he says..”going up, up UP ! ”

Someone said earlier that it seems RE product below 500’s moving well and up while product 750 and above taking much longer to sell. I think some truth to that.

#116 AndreiMR on 10.27.11 at 2:50 pm

I’m definitely a “99%er” who’s following Garth’s advice by choosing to rent instead of own. My landlord’s disclosed that she’s merely breaking even on her variable rate mortgate for my apartment — one that she bought in 2001! The market can’t bear a rent increase on my unit, so she’s not making any money. If I were to buy it today, however, my ownership costs would exceed the expected rents I’m actually paying. What am I doing with the difference? Saving!

#117 spaceman on 10.27.11 at 2:52 pm

Garth, the 10 steps you layed out a few posts ago have hit home with a few people. i turned a buddy on to the BLOG and he really clicked on it.

I have since gotten my own agent, and am applying everything that you wrote. there are lots of tired listings, and I am in no hurry. If they don’t like my lowball, I move on. The next couple of months look to be the worst, Oct stats come in a week and will be dismal for VIREB.

thanks for the info… when is the seminar coming?

#118 Toon Town Boomer on 10.27.11 at 2:58 pm

#108 Moneta
Just stating the obvious that it shouldn’t cost a million bucks to by a house.
Never said anything about feeling rich.

#119 Smoking Man on 10.27.11 at 3:03 pm

Market is on fire………………

Euro is letting greece write off 50% of the debt and to add insult to injury those who bought insurance on CDS are not going to be able to collect………….

Like sitting down to play poker, You have two ace’s your oponent has 2 twos, and the dealers says sorry aces I just changed the rules….. 2’s win

This ain’t over yet kids…………….

#120 disciple on 10.27.11 at 3:05 pm

Would you sell your home for 25% less than what you bought it for? Probably not, more like 25% more. You would have to take a fat check to the bank to get out of your mortgage. I don’t think anybody would or even could do that. They don’t have the cash.

But what if potential buyers were sparse, and everybody on your street was also selling? Over 70% ownership. How badly do you need the cash? How badly do you need the monkey off your back?
What if the banks called in their LOC’s? Could they do that? Why would they do that? They would end up with Power of Sale properties en masse. Do you think they care what the liquidation price would be? Not likely.

I think the tipping point will be psychological. When families simply have had enough of the rat race and realize that keeping up with the mortgage payments is not worth it. Think about all the ways that the mental manipulators strive to keep homedebters as far away from that point of inflection as possible. Through a circus of distractions.

#121 I'm stupid on 10.27.11 at 3:14 pm

#63 house buster

You right I’m sorry.

Garth honestly, Fred is either lying or a moron. 41 1 mil cash, means 100k savings over 10 years. Or 50k over 20. Or 200k over 5 years. The point I’m making is that if it was the former, he could have bought his home with cash at any point except for the last 5 years. If he made his money in the last 5 years his annual income must be north of 500k. 500k less taxes and living expenses will be 200k over 5 years. At 3 years gross income for a mortgage plus 25% down will get him into foresthill, rosedale or the outskirts of the bridal path. We all know those areas will not correct that much. Did you fact check or just take him at his word?

#122 Just a question? on 10.27.11 at 3:15 pm

Well I like the report you have linked here.
And I like the Winnipeg market.

“Winnipeg appears to have balanced housing inventories.”

Low unemployment and low vacancy rate 1% too. NICE!

#123 Just a question? on 10.27.11 at 3:25 pm

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Average-weekly-earnings-in-Manitoba-up-132702228.html

#124 Drake on 10.27.11 at 3:49 pm

How long can they keep playing this game before the house of cards comes collapsing down around all of us? The world’s govt’s have all gone mad.

#125 Spiltbongwater on 10.27.11 at 3:55 pm

I am really trying to feel sorry for Fred with 1 mil in the bank but can’t afford a house. I also felt sorry for a guy I golfed with who had a 1.5 million dollarpenthouse but , knocked up a woman and has to sell his 911 turbo as it is not a good family car.

Yeah, I hate it when that happens. Thanks for understanding. — Garth

#126 Humpty Dumpty on 10.27.11 at 3:57 pm

Fairy tales seem to be popular these days…

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/10/27_Gerald_Celente.html

#127 disciple on 10.27.11 at 4:08 pm

#111 Blacksheep… it’s the theory of the serpent seed line of Cain, whose father was not Adam. Whether it’s literal, or allegorical, it still contains an element of truth, IMHO. Other ancient myths share the same tale, in various forms. Cain and his seed built cities and invented the implements of modern civilization. Unfortunately, since the Vatican burned so many books, and the surviving remnants are held in secret libraries to this day, we don’t know much else.

#128 Moneta on 10.27.11 at 4:08 pm

Toon Town Boomer on 10.27.11 at 2:58 pm
#108 Moneta
Just stating the obvious that it shouldn’t cost a million bucks to by a house.
Never said anything about feeling rich
————-

I’d be willing to bet that nearly all Canadians who have 1 million + portfolios benefited is some way, shape or form from the credit bubble of the last 2 decades. And frankly I’m sick and tired of hearing those people complain.

There is no free lunch. With no credit bubble, you might be able to buy a house for 300K but maybe your portfolio would only be 300K.

#129 Silocab on 10.27.11 at 4:20 pm

To # 120 I’m stupid

I concur with Frank. I’m in my late 30’s and sold my company earlier this year and now have $1.7 million squirelled away in cash and stocks. I live in a condo (which I bought in 2005 and own outright), and have been looking at houses in Toronto recently.

$1 million buys you nothing in Toronto south of the 401. A nice turnkey home in Forest Hill, Rosedale, Old Yonge, and the like would run well north of $3 million (more like $4-5 million). I have seen houses for sale in Toronto for well over $1 million that look like they should be in Detroit and selling for 50 grand.

I’m not looking for a mansion, just a nice, newish house with a good-sized lot. Do I really need to pay millions of dollars for it? That is the point, not whether or not we can qualify for a mortgage.

#130 Moneta on 10.27.11 at 4:22 pm

Toon Town Boomer on 10.27.11 at 1:11 pm
Wow , the guy has a million bucks and can’t buy a house. Just shows how ridiculous the housing economy truly is.
———-
And there are houses for much less…. people with a million just want to be where the action is.

#131 Musical Jimmy on 10.27.11 at 4:23 pm

Garth, take it from one of the least well-off of the 99% – you do write for me. You arm me with facts, knowledge, and good sense for every time that anyone tells me that I’m “wasting my money” by renting. You teach me how to take what money I can save and make it work so that some day I might actually be able to retire. Believe it or not, I and my $25k annual income benefit greatly from your advice; despite the fact that you can’t really dissuade me from buying real estate (since I really can’t afford it in the first place with my cash flow) at the very least you can give me the tools I need to argue my case against people who insist that I should.

So your blog is still very useful to someone like me, who only has a small amount to invest.

#132 Devore on 10.27.11 at 4:50 pm

#118 Smoking Man

So banks take 50% haircut, and that doesn’t trigger a CDS payout? I guess all the banks that are hedging their counter-party risk with CDS aren’t really protected at all, they’re just paying premiums so someone can make commissions?

I can see how this is bullish for the market, especially financials. XLF up 6%.

#133 Timing is Everything on 10.27.11 at 4:57 pm

#118 Smoking Man

The rules CAN and WILL be changed at anytime. Just a stroke of a pen. Don’t ya just hate when the goal posts keep getting moved in the middle of a game. Remember, this is a ‘voluntary’ agreement.

#134 Blacksheep on 10.27.11 at 5:00 pm

Vyw # 156 yesterday,

I agree with everything you’ve said, other than,

“Kill the debt and savers will have fewer safer choices – they can lend to more riskier ventures or they might move money overseas ie. South Asians investing in Indian bonds paying 8%.”

I’m not concerned with how safe/risky a savers/private banker’s investment is.
I’m not concerned if saver seeks higher % returns.
(all $ should)

I’m am concerned by the gigantic financial burden placed on tax payers of Can. to pay any interest to any private party, when it is completely unnecessary.

Our Gov. doesn’t need to borrow money from anyone, ever, period.

take care,
Blacksheep

#135 Beach Girl on 10.27.11 at 5:14 pm

#61 Moneta on 10.27.11 at 7:29 am

65 is the new 55….seriously
——-
Except they make you redundant at 50.

___

I agree with most of your comments. That is priceless. Where are all the wrinklies going to get jobs. I think you really have to be on your toes to qualify for Timmies.

And a million dollars is not rich at all.

Oh some RETARD suggested there are more important things in life. I agree, being able to house and feed your family. Don’t get all lovey and dovey with me. When you are eating at the dollar store, finances seem a bit more important.

Also, my children went to school with the Flaherty triplets, yes one wasn’t a 100%, but who are. He has made nice tax rules for people with disabilities. I applaud him for that.

#136 Beach Girl on 10.27.11 at 5:23 pm

#48 meslippery

Would love to work for The Huffington Post. Go girl GO.

Also the guy with the 3 kids, advising everyone to forget about the McMansion if they have children, is right on, a bit late for him, but?

#137 Saggy Bottom Boomer on 10.27.11 at 5:56 pm

Well , whatever it takes to sell a house in the current market, I suppose.

http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpps/news/golden-valley-house-lamborghini-diablo-oct-26-2011_15654040

#138 poco on 10.27.11 at 6:04 pm

#119 disciple

Would you sell your home for 25% less than what you bought it for? Probably not, more like 25% more. You would have to take a fat check to the bank to get out of your mortgage. I don’t think anybody would or even could do that. They don’t have the cash.
______________________________________________

you might be surprised at what desperate home owners can do —for whatever reason –a few from this past spring in the tri cities—some may have been posted before,–for those that missed them

309-1185 High St Coq–bought jun 09–369.9k–sold mar 2011–289k
2507-400 Capilano–bought dec 08–358.9k–sold–mar 2011– 315k
1608-400 capilano–bought dec08473.9k–sold may 2011 438k—made out a little better than his neighbour
1502-2982 Burlington–bought may 2009-537.9k–sold apr 2011– 480k
41-1216 Johnson –TH–bought oct 07–455k–sold apr 2011 382k
many still selling for less than they paid–a little research shows you where we’re going
ps: it’s cheque

#139 I'm stupid on 10.27.11 at 6:13 pm

#128 Silocab

No you don’t need to pay millions of dollars. Unless you want to live in those areas. Do you think you are special with 1.7 in liquid assets? You are in the broader country but in the areas you mentions you have the largest concentration of wealth in the country. So if you want in you must pay or move to more affordable neighborhoods.
Also where did I say in my last post 1 million will get you there? I agree we are in a bubble but some areas will fare better than others and unfortunately the neighborhoods you mentioned will do better.

#140 Jetfixer on 10.27.11 at 6:23 pm

So much for the hot asian money.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/shanghai-property-values-plunge-recent-buyers-protest.html

#141 I'm stupid on 10.27.11 at 6:27 pm

#128 Silocab

Oh who is Frank?

#142 I'm stupid on 10.27.11 at 6:28 pm

Mentioned not mentions

#143 allister on 10.27.11 at 6:31 pm

#36wes_coast

“As I type this the Greeks are getting off the hook for 50% of their debt.”

So I have to ask – why should the Italians and Spanish pay 100% of their debts?

#144 Peakoilist on 10.27.11 at 6:33 pm

since Garth dismissed me today for just talking about hyperinflation, for anyone wanting to educate themselves, here are some links describing what this phenomenon is, why it happens and why it can happen during these exceptional crazy economic times….not that it will, but that it’s a possibility.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflatiohttp://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/how-hyperinflation-will-happen.htmln
http://www.dailypaul.com/74840/confused-about-hyperinflation-it-always-happens-during-a-deflationary-slump
http://www.johndclare.net/Weimar_hyperinflation.htm

It’s not even in the room. — Garth

#145 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.11 at 6:48 pm

#77 With great power… — “Why is this?” — Because we have to learn from our mistakes, and not make the same mistake again.

#103 Fabrega — “By the way, does anyone here knows what a central bank is?”

As far as I know, Libya had one and consequently didn’t need the US$ or the IMF — they had a gold-backed dinar currency.

Libya was doing very well until the US – NATO forces went in and wrecked the country, as they did with Iraq. Probably more to it than that, but this is what I know.

#146 allister on 10.27.11 at 6:49 pm

Oh I get it.

Euro banks write off Greek debt by 50%, then the ESF gives the banks the freshly printed Euros to make them whole, then the taxpayer will get tax (death by a thousand cuts) hikes to make the ESF whole – everybody is happy because the little guy pays. Well DUH

Prediction – Greece will be broke in another year or two.

#147 TurnerNation on 10.27.11 at 6:59 pm

Toronto R/E event: http://www.thepropertyshow.ca/

They kicked me out last year. — Garth

#148 jess on 10.27.11 at 7:38 pm

“Satisficing” – occurs in consensus building when the group looks towards a solution everyone can agree on even if it may not be the best.
===========================

August 2, 2007 at 7:04 PM EDT

OTTAWA — Canada’s inability to catch and convict white-collar criminals who cheat and steal from ordinary investors is an “embarrassment” internationally that must be addressed, says Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

What about locally?

Remember Leonard Rosenberg Toronto apartment flips
what did he serve one year?

#149 jess on 10.27.11 at 7:42 pm

Big Banks Don’t Want Your Money, Unless You Pay Them to Keep It — For Real

http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/13103
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/business/banks-flooded-with-cash-they-cant-profitably-use.html?_r=1

#150 TurnerNation on 10.27.11 at 7:44 pm

Was this posted? BBPOE (Best Bedbug Place on Earth).
Ewwww.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/10/27/bc-bed-bugs-vancouver-library.html

A bedbug alert has been raised at another Lower Mainland library after a patron of the Mount Pleasant branch discovered the first live bedbugs in the Vancouver library system.

Earlier this month, New Westminster and Burnaby closed three library branches after finding bedbugs in some of their books.

Then on Saturday, Vancouver resident Brian King was reading in his living room when one of the blood-sucking parasites crawled out of the book and onto his hand.

#151 Onemorething on 10.27.11 at 7:45 pm

Must keep rates low as this RE thing turns sour. Must give everyone a chance to make payments for this downturn period so it’s not a complete sell off.

But the contagion will take grip anyhow and we’re heading back to 2003 prices especially on high end properties.

It’s not about the future of buying and buying activity it the trying to curb the big selloff in chunks.

Kinda like the same way all governments are printing and bailing out everyone BUT the middle class.

Be forwarned!

#152 MarcFromOttawa on 10.27.11 at 7:53 pm

#100 bigridger

The TSX is up 2,29% today. You picked the wrong day to try and argue your point.

#153 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.11 at 7:56 pm


Debt Fraud = debt forgiveness; NY Fed OWS should target the NY Fed instead; GS are running scared of this bank? This bank is non-profit, and tiddlywinks in size; Ten Reasons to avoid the BoA; Oakland and New York Police have become stormtroopers. 3:06 clip; 5:03 clip Military tems up with OWS; Eurotanic It’s still sinking.

Venezuela Getting their gold back ASAP. ChIndia has been on a buying spree as well; EU Sludge Fund “It isn’t even a deal so much as a plan. The hoopla that all is saved is total bovine excrement!” wrh.com; The 1% Giant govt. + giant corporations; Headline says it better; Swiss bank insider Learn from the best.

BP They have been allowed to drill again in the GoM, yet whistleblowers keep dying. Dead men tell no tales? Omurderer Great day for the US military; 7:09 clip Who does NATO answer to for the murder of Gadaafi, and Sirte is wiped; Three Eyed Fish Homer Simpson called this one right; Cuba has a lot of oil. Where are the US and NATO? US fury Karzai backs Pakistan.

Super Congress Remember them? Guess what’s coming; Errors Airport body scanners; Drunk Moose It takes all sorts; 5:08 clip MEast is being sliced up; Nov. 9, 2011 The FCC are temporarily disabling broadcasts and Flyby Asteroid – Hemmerhoid – what’s the dif?

#154 TurnerNation on 10.27.11 at 7:57 pm

I can imagine the next blog entry as:

Equities rallied, bonds routed, and balanced investors cheered. Blog dog Carney dug in his heels and guarded his stance on low rates.

#155 TurnerNation on 10.27.11 at 7:59 pm

Oh yeah, and Real Estate plumped, REITs glistened.

#156 vyw on 10.27.11 at 8:02 pm

#133
I understand your point and we could have a new system where the fed Govt just spends into the economy.

Savers have fewer safe choice so they might buy Hydro bonds let’s say, pretty safe but there isn’t $550 billion of these bonds. Well they could invest in other markets ie. US Treasuries.

One of the issues is inflation if savers start spending in a big way or if too much debt is monetized by the Govt. The system we have is not perfect. We pay about $30 billion on the $550 billion net fed debt…its just over 5.5% a year presumably principal and interest.

Perhaps we could blend it…monetize some of the debt, watch for inflation, pay off the federal debt over 25-30 years. The deflationary impact of debt retirement may be cancelled out by the inflation generated by spending into the economy. But you may end up with no savers…need to assess the unintended consequences.

Also such a new system could be abused by public officials. At least with the present system the Govt can still con us into thinking our taxes are needed for their spending. And therefore deficit spending is matched up with bonds held by savers.

#157 Westernman on 10.27.11 at 8:22 pm

Tax Haven,
You nailed it right on the head… the average Canadian isn’t worth the shoes he or she is wearing! I second the ” let ’em sink ” statement.

#158 Timing is Everything on 10.27.11 at 8:38 pm

#149 TurnerNation

Do some basic research, please….

http://bedbugregistry.com/metro/toronto/

http://bedbugregistry.com/metro/vancouver/

#159 Ron on 10.27.11 at 8:55 pm

#56

Canadian dollar crash???

Only if oil hits $30/barrel.

#160 The thing in the basement on 10.27.11 at 9:25 pm

60 TOBB – Not sure what you’re disagreeing with – if you put any excess income towards reducing debt, you will
not “save” anything.

75 American – I guess Bugs Bunny must have been
Canadian -eh?

#161 Blacksheep on 10.27.11 at 9:30 pm

Vyw #155

“Also such a new system could be abused by public officials”

Naw, your just paranoid.

We just need to elect some more political scientists, that can work closely with some more monetary scientists, to make sure we TOTALLY avoid, ANY corruption.

take care,
Blacksheep

#162 TaxHaven on 10.27.11 at 9:44 pm

I can’t help but wonder. My small city here on Vancouver Island is chock full of expensive pickup trucks and the number of empty Starbucks and Tim Horton’s cups discarded beside the roads is staggering…those places are EXPENSIVE! People pay for absolutely everything, even two or three dollar items, with credit cards.

Yet the economy sucks. Small businesses struggle to stay open. Vacant stores (with long city government-issued edicts limiting what types of business future lessees can operate there) abound. The town seems to consist of about 1/2 impoverished welfare recipients, paycheck-to-paycheck young families and government-susidized natives, 1/4 wealthy government and resource industry senior employees and 1/4 relatively well-off retirees.

There are no jobs – outside of Wal-mart and the service sector – to speak of.

Sometimes I think this is Canada’s future…

#163 vyw on 10.27.11 at 9:56 pm

#160
you’re quite the optimist
look at the USA where the politicians pile on the pork
if they only knew that the Govt issues bonds to lock in savings as opposed to funding Govt operations, and that the Govt as the sovereign can spend at will…there would be no end to the spending.

There is some good discussion on modern monetary theory at pragcap.com; it’s very US-centric but we can adopt some of the ideas to Canada.

That said, I wish the Govt here would recognize that they have some fiscal options. Looking at the sectoral balances, we have a Govt deficit and current account deficit of $50 billion which cancels out and therefore private net savings is zero. Austerity means flat or reduced demand and possibly more layoffs.

#164 WI BOOMER on 10.27.11 at 9:56 pm

So……a 50% reduction in Greek Debt, EU Banks are firing up the printer ala’Bernanke. Savers appear to be hosed…and as the SMOKING MAN says, “this ain’t over yet.” Quite right, but where to the sane go from here?

Yes, the market is virtually back to the low 12,000’s nut the PIIGS fest is NOT fixed, but another Band-Aid on the behind of this oinker.

So, the over-debted slob with excess RE on his keester, what to do?? SELL, SELL, SELL !!!! This bump might give the Greater Fool the confidence they need to take the idiot plunge!! Get out with NOW while you still can get out.

Liquid cash is so very nice to have, as are Quality Divident Payers, and Quality Bonds, Mutual Funds of each etc etc.

Sorry, guys I just do NOT like DEBT.

Is that such a bad thing? Worked dam hard to pay it all off, and I NEVER plan to go back!! Even if the world goes to HELL in a handbasket, I can merely watch it unfold.
The amussing Election Season idiot parade begins in earnest in just a couple of months here in the US
Big smile!!

#165 disciple on 10.27.11 at 10:00 pm

Just went to buy some groceries with my wife… man, talk about hyperinflation. A fiat dollar is certainly worth less than when I was a child. Hidden tax. Outright theft. With outsourcing of labour, shouldn’t everything be getting cheaper (price-wise and quality-wise)?

#166 Dan in Victoria on 10.27.11 at 10:14 pm

Taxhaven @ 161
Yep pretty much true.
Small business are hurting.
Was going down to the Lagoon this morning in sunny Colwood and came up to the crest in the wooden bridge.
Someone was standing there with a clip board making out some sort of report, one of the 8×8 wooden buffers had been knocked loose.
I looked at it and thought hell I could bash that back into place before my coffee got cold.
Looked at the end of the bridge 4 guys in a truck getting out to come over and fix it.
Drove another hundred feet and two more guys and a pickup coming.
Lets see 7 people what maybe 2 hours each and two trucks.
Like I said could have done it myself before the coffee was cold.
32% tax increase in Colwood the last couple of years.

#167 Blacksheep on 10.27.11 at 10:29 pm

Vyw # 162,

I hear Prag Cap. referenced by an Englishmen named Nick, living in France.
He started a interesting site: http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/

He does a daily round up of current global economic events.
Pretty smart fellow. Your ok too. Not many people get MMT.

take care,
Blacksheep

#168 Blacksheep on 10.27.11 at 10:38 pm

Vyw # 162,

I hear Prag Cap. referenced by an Englishmen named Nick, living in France.

He started a interesting site: http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/

He does a daily round up of current global economic events.
Pretty smart fellow. Your ok too. Not many people get MMT.

take care,
Blacksheep

#169 Blacksheep on 10.27.11 at 10:41 pm

double post, sorry.

#170 The thing in the basement on 10.28.11 at 12:54 am

161 Taxhaven – I drive an F150. I call it my “Port Alberni smart car”.

Also works in Alberta!

#171 jess on 10.28.11 at 10:07 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/01/us-financial-regulation-algos-idUSTRE7806J420110901

http://dealbreaker.com/2011/09/sec-is-going-to-take-your-high-frequency-trading-algorithm-run-it-on-a-commodore-64-see-if-it-crashes-the-market/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/01/us-financial-regulation-algos-idUSTRE7806J420110901
For Release:
Contacts: October 27, 2011
Nancy Condon (202) 728-8379
==========

we have seen 30 35 40 % controlled by one entity

10/18/2011 “Huggy Bear and Position Limits”
Commissioner Bart Chilton
Event Details
==============

commodity pools
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/index.htm

=
Finra’s complaint sheds light on the world of nontraded real-estate investment trusts, or REITs, which pool cash from investors to buy property and pay out the rental income in the form of a regular dividend
… they “were paying investors with their own money,” according to the complaint.

According to NASAA, there has been a noted recent increase in reports or complaints of fraudulent investment schemes that utilized a self-directed IRA as a key feature. State securities regulators also are investigating numerous cases where a self-directed IRA was used in an attempt to lend credibility to a fraudulent scheme.

Similarly, the SEC has brought numerous cases in which promoters of fraudulent schemes steered investors to self-directed IRAs.

..”While self-directed IRAs can be a safe way to invest retirement funds, investors should be mindful of potential fraudulent schemes when considering a self-directed IRA. The SEC says fraudsters often exploit self-directed IRAs because owners are allowed to hold unregistered securities in them, and custodians often fail to performed adequate due diligence on the offerings.

Moreover, because there is a penalty for making early withdrawals from an IRA, investors caught in a scheme might actually be encouraged to keep the money in the account even longer. “

#172 Tony on 10.28.11 at 12:38 pm

Sounds like Fred is just itching to lose all his money or most of it. I guess when Toronto housing starts to fall in price Fred will be the first one to buy and the first one to declare personal bankruptcy.