Thank you

Yesterday I opened my email to see the following ‘this-day-in-history’ note from the Canadian Press:

In 2006, outspoken MP Garth Turner was suspended from the Conservative government caucus for violating caucus confidentiality and for being too critical of the prime minister.

Some people who daily slink into this pathetic blog may not be aware of my dark and sordid past in Parliament. They might see me merely as a grumpy, old (but startlingly well-muscled) iconoclastic piece of work, bleating on about investments, real estate and personal lubricants.

Sure, I was once an ambitious pol, even running the nation’s tax system (although I shocked Ottawa by offering tax cheats a partial amnesty). The prime minister of the day trusted me, my colleagues embraced me and my party encouraged me. Hell, I even ran to be leader of it.

But then, elected again years later, I found myself on a destructive collision course with the establishment, the party, other MPs and, most importantly, the new prime minister. Bad move. He turned out to be a dude with a temper, a short fuse and a penchant for control. My crime was heinous. I’d reached the conclusion that getting elected to the House of Commons meant working for the voters, not the party leader. I decided to go to Ottawa and fight for constituents, instead of telling people what the government wanted them to think.

Worse, I blogged about it. I posted vids of interviews with MPs from other parties who had something interesting to say. I conducted online polls of how Canadians wanted us to vote, then circulated the results across the desks in the House  of Commons. And I questioned government policy which was questionable. Hell, I even wrote an alternative budget for F based on blog feedback – which proposed creation of a tax-free savings account for everybody and pension-splitting for seniors.

So, they threw me out. After all, how could a blogging, populist, indy-minded member of Parliament be allowed to stay in the flock?

As a politician I apparently failed. I admit it. I sucked.

I mention this for the benefit of those who come to this blog to impose their own views on the rest of us. You know who you are – the house-humpers, depressionists, regional secession nuts or metalheads. If the prime minister and his coterie couldn’t bully me, you have no chance. As they learned, I’ve reached a dangerous stage in my life where neither money nor power can seduce (I may have left a couple of things out). My pleasure now is speaking freely, and as truthfully as I can make it.

So, let me tell you, things could be better. Our society is not well-governed and this will lead to widespread disappointment. By actively encouraging over-borrowing and over-consumption since the crisis of 2008, and by pandering to real estate interests before that (witness the 0/40 fiasco), we’ve been set up for failure by our leaders. Millions now owe more than they own, and we’ve financed ourselves into an inescapable corner.

My hope has been to make this clear to as many people as possible. However, while this blog may get six million visits a year, it’s but a tinkle in the wind. Most don’t listen and don’t care. Too horny for stuff. Too ensnared by the lenders.

A massive buyer’s market in housing lies ahead, along with a glacial economy. We delusional Canadians may prove to be as impervious to the global slowdown as RIM was to Apple. The laws of economics will actually apply to real estate in Vancouver or the oil patch in Alberta. Consumers who borrowed big to live large will be squished by mounting unemployment, a rising cost of living and equity theft from their houses. How can it be otherwise when our biggest trading partner and sugar daddy is wounded?

Does this mean recession or worse? Unlikely. After all, the US middle class has just been eviscerated in an economy which is still growing. It didn’t take a depression to drop housing values by a third and put 26 million families into negative equity. It required but two things. (a) Excessive borrowing, and (b) no diversification. When real estate sank, they all went with it.

Meanwhile, as the Occupy movement reminds us, big corporations are making record profits. Globalizing operations, outsourcing, selling into new markets, dumping workers, harnessing technology and doing what consumers aren’t – trashing debt – has worked. It’s why stock markets can recover when countries can’t.

Months ago I said the age of the house is over. Gone is the time when simply paying off a mortgage was all the financial strategy you required. Real estate’s now a dangerous asset, which will not be evident to Canadians, or their members of Parliament, until it’s too late to react.

I lost my job in the House of Commons battling the mentality that has brought us to this spot. Five years ago this week I watched myself being fired, live on national television.

Mr. Harper, thank you.


#1 Young Old Fart on 10.19.11 at 9:10 pm

Love to be first!

#2 Darryl on 10.19.11 at 9:16 pm

You were changed a couple of times right Garth? or was that just the brand ? :)))

Switched to Depends. — Garth

#3 Bong House on 10.19.11 at 9:17 pm

First is for old farts.

#4 In Garth We Trust on 10.19.11 at 9:19 pm

Keep on your mission of truth Garth. You are giving us the straight goods unlike the politicians who turfed you out. Canada thanks you for your efforts!

#5 Juanita Violini on 10.19.11 at 9:20 pm

I wish you’d run for Prime Minister now.

#6 Darryl on 10.19.11 at 9:28 pm

Never mind my first comment Garth (not” FIRST”comment, that’s lame)

I read the sign and posted instead of reading the sign and post and posting. Should have known Garth would explain the sign in his post.

Feeling like smoking man here so I’ll shut up now.

#7 rower on 10.19.11 at 9:28 pm

You tried and can hold your head high. You didn’t sell out or bow down to the “establishment” (read:bankers). You kept your humanity.

It is very difficult to go against the herd. It can feel lonely at times. Your blog is a bit of sanity in an insane world.

Thank you.

#8 Calgary Car Guy on 10.19.11 at 9:28 pm

Congrats on the anniversary Garth. I’ve always thought being true to yourself is one of the biggest necessities for happiness. I’ve always thought the best compliment one can receive is ” I trust you”. I think your blogs huge following has something to do with that Garth. Thanks.

#9 bill on 10.19.11 at 9:29 pm

Congratulations Garth on the anniversary of your expulsion from the tories…
a wee dram may be appropriate at this time.
hell I’ll have one too.

#10 Timing is Everything on 10.19.11 at 9:31 pm


#11 Willa on 10.19.11 at 9:35 pm

Most sane, reasonable people don’t write comments on people’s blogs.

Ignore the doomers. They’re over-represented on blog sites.

#12 Dave_in_vancouver on 10.19.11 at 9:36 pm

Garth, Thanks for the good work. Having been reading your blog for months since returning from my stint with DFAIT in Asia, coming back to Vancouver and seeing the general ignorance/smugness of the population here, your voice is very much needed. Hats off to you!

#13 TurnerNation on 10.19.11 at 9:37 pm

At least Garth does not wear a wig, like Harper’s.
It’s all a stage managed illusion (“I am the war president!”).

#14 West Coast on 10.19.11 at 9:39 pm

Willa wrote:

“Most sane, reasonable people don’t write comments on people’s blogs. ”

…I couldn’t agree more.

#15 I'm stupid on 10.19.11 at 9:40 pm

Some of us have taken your advise. Thanks to you I have figured out how to reduse my taxes, how to use my income and assets to increase net worth and began thinking in a different way. The reason I read your pathetic blog is because you have nothing to gain or lose from your advise. You do it because you enjoy it. You may say you don’t but your writing speaks for itself.

So Thank You

#16 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 10.19.11 at 9:41 pm

Your efforts are very much appreciated Garth.

#17 T.J. BONES on 10.19.11 at 9:44 pm

Garth CNN says that U.S. companys are using offshore countrys to hide income. So then there is no fat accounts in states, the U.S. ambassador is going after dual citizens for percieved monies owed. Is the money there or is the recovery just smoke and mirrors?

#18 martin on 10.19.11 at 9:48 pm

nice post today!!

why dont you ran for an intependent mp garth?

iam sure you will win

#19 Waterloo Resident on 10.19.11 at 9:52 pm

Garth, the readers here have to read THIS: ( )

Generally is shows everyone what the Americans are going through and probably soon Canadians will be going through.

Here are a few words from the article:

( ” First of all, the reason why people aren’t scarfing up homes at current prices has nothing to do with the “lack of attractive inventory”. That’s a load of malarkey. It’s because they no longer have confidence in the system. And why would they? After all, they’ve just seen their family and friends just get reamed in the biggest mortgage fraud scam in history. Are they supposed to go rushing back in to the market with money-in-hand so they can get fleeced too? Not likely. Besides, owning a house isn’t what it used to be. Not by a long shot. It used to be the cornerstone of the American dream and entre’ into the middle class. No more. Owning a house today means that one is shackled to a sinking asset that limits one’s options and mobility. Let’s face it, that 5-bedroom McMansion with the marble countertops is the albatross that keeps people toiling-away in the cube-farms until the day they get carted off to Potter’s Field. A 30-year mortgage is a 30-year prison sentence. ” )

There is much more to that article, but go ahead and read it yourself.

Have a nice day everyone!

#20 eaglebay - Parksville on 10.19.11 at 9:52 pm

From the previous blog.

#164 Calgary Car Guy on 10.19.11 at 7:55 pm

Wrong. Just moved to BC, Parksville, from Alberta.
Went to a local body shop to get a license plate holder installed on the front bumper of my vehicle.
Went to pay the bill and the guy said: no charge, welcome to town.
Biggest body shop in town.
Do not generalize.

#21 Deby't Dark Embrace on 10.19.11 at 9:53 pm

Representing your constituents and enacting laws that do the greatest good for the greatest number of people . A true democracy. We have lost our way……..

#22 Not 1st on 10.19.11 at 9:54 pm

I only comment on this blog for one reason, your blog has a propensity to trash real estate while blowing sunshine up everyone’s wazzoo about equities and bonds. Yes, the laws of economics will correct real estate, but they also apply to insolvent countries, tapped out consumers, zombie financial institutions, shadow banking, and equity valuations held up by nothing but talking heads.

And then because your views are not balanced, that invites an aggressive counter argument from the posters. For example, dismissing gold, an asset class that has gone up 10 straight years. Or your utter inability to be able to recognize failed institutions, like JPM or Bof A for instance who hold trillion of liabilities on their books from CDS.

On top of that, you want this economy to simply reboot as is, without any changes like its 1981 all over again. That means all the same mistakes will get repeated again until we have a bigger crash all while too much wealth is concentrating in too few hands. That cannot continue and most do not want it to continue, yet you do.

Those are the reasons you are challenged by your posters. Open your mind a bit, see the other side and you will find the comments will moderate overnight.

#23 Waterloo Resident on 10.19.11 at 9:55 pm

Garth, you said that you got thrown out of your government position. If and when the housing market tanks, go ahead and run as an independent or try as a leader of one of the smaller national parties ( Like the NDP ), I am sure that at least 20% of the people will vote for a guy like you: You have BRAINS and BALLS, and I think thats what this country needs.

#24 house1 on 10.19.11 at 9:56 pm

TFSA’s are the greatest invention since investing began!

#25 bridgepigeon on 10.19.11 at 9:57 pm

Tax amnesty and TFSAs. Good job Turner. One can be more honourable outside the framework set by the state. Truth and justice are not easily compatable with the powers that be.

#26 the Phantom on 10.19.11 at 9:58 pm

Hey Garth:

I suppose it would be fitting to also offer you a “Happy Anniversary” on this day! It does take courage, determination and an iron will not to betray those principles that are dear to your heart.

I should also thank you for allowing us to post; to rant and rave while either sober or inebriated and tolerantly permit an exercise in the free exchange of ideas here. In one small way, it would be neat to see what we do here replicated in Parliament; I’d like to nominate Smoking Man for the Minister of Health. There is utterly no doubt in my mind that he could shake that system to its very core and “weed” out those who are non-value added!

In closing, my hope is that my posts haven’t taxed you unduly. I know there was only one post wherein I disparaged some female RE agent beyond a just representation that required a degree of editing. Honestly, I had to laugh when I read the “sanitized” version later in the week.

Take care, have a good night and sleep the sleep of one whose conscience is untroubled, whose principles, interests and values remain intact. I’ll check in tomorrow.

the Phantom

#27 Smoking Man on 10.19.11 at 9:59 pm

It was Hosni Harpers Loss. Only butt kissers allowed..

The Brave Spartans
(Note: sober again)

What do the Greeks know that the rest of the tax farm slaves here don’t. The inventers of Democracy have got it figured out. The machine has been unsuccessful in having them fight each other, like we do here. Left vs Right, Business vs Union. So on and so forth.

For all the brave Spartans fighting in the street know that money is just paper, real wealth lies in thy labour, withhold it and use it for free to help each other, un meter it from the grid, and the old guy in the castle that has all the paper has nothing….The feared wizard of oz exposed……

When you vote X for your candidate you give them the authority to put you, your children and your grand children, and great grand children in state debt servitude forever.
If you are unlucky like the Spartans, If the ones you vote for are crocks and pillage your country there is nothing you can do except perhaps withhold your labour………Just like the Spartans are doing now………

The Spartans fighting in the streets of Athens want a default, they don’t want to be on the hook for what they did not spend or enjoy, contrary to all the propaganda that is feed to us about the lazy Greeks. Ever see them at a restaurant cooking for 12 hours a day….

The contagion that power so fears is not Greece’s debt, it’s nothing in world scale….

What power is terrified of is the other countries debt slaves see and understand that it’s no big deal to default. Angela Merkel is now desperatly doing everything her power to give money to greece, her owners and she herself know she will not get re elected. Her people are pissed but like all other western leaders she don’t work for the people. The world tax farm slave had better not see this default play out or its over for the owners…

In fact it’s like picking up the monopoly game board whacking the winner in the head with it, and starting a new game where everyone gets to play again.
Perfect example of Bat Man Head

Look at Tue Morning Bat Man upside down… BUY
Look at Tue Night-Wed Morn Bat Man up right SHORT

Then click on a 5 year chart and look at 2008, what do you see…………Very clean very Sharp Bat Man,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, look at Early 2009 soft but still a Upside Down Bat Man…

The above secret is gift it’s for me being a dunking ass on a bender these last few weeks………Contaminating this Great Blog with shit….

Google charts suck Look for Bat Man using Renko charts best is ( CMC Markets Trade Station) and you can turn 50K into a million in a year if this volatility keeps up and you know how to safely use Margin….Your welcome…

Done drinking for good I think.

Posts will be boring going forward….sorry………….Time to hand the torch for someone else to be the village idiot………

#28 DMZ on 10.19.11 at 10:00 pm

Garth wrote:
As a politician I apparently failed. I admit it. I sucked.

Garth, I’ve been a longtime follower of your blogs, even back in the day when you were in the house. I remember having some good flame wars with some doofus named Frank. Reminds me of some of the ‘conversation’ that happens on this blog as well.

You may have failed as a ‘politician’, but not as a leader. Your job was to support the people you represented, and you did that day in and day out (and not only those who voted for you, but for the betterment of your constituency and your coountry).

Harper was a jackass then, and he’s a jackass still. As a ‘small c’ conservative, I believe he’s trashed democracy and this country in ways that will be felt for years after he’s booted from office (which can’t come soon enough).

some of us know that you are, as you were back then, looking out for those who can’t (or won’t) look out for themselves.

Maybe you should change your blog name from ‘greaterfool’ to ‘greatergood’.

Keep on keeping on.

#29 AJ on 10.19.11 at 10:05 pm

Garth- you saved my bacon.
Here’s to the best depends-wearing lubricant talkin’ well muscled ex-politico out there!

#30 Stevenson on 10.19.11 at 10:05 pm

Where is this millions of people owing more then they own? When the biggest questionable RE bubble Vancouver hasn’t even been touched, but instead still increasing.

Besides your speculation of we are “GOING” to end bad. How did Canada do after you left? Seems like we had a pretty good recovery too after being dragged into recession.

#31 shanks on 10.19.11 at 10:08 pm

garth you are a hero… keep speaking the truth.

#32 Zed in Geneva on 10.19.11 at 10:09 pm

I have been waiting for 5 years for real estate to drop but the bond market has not cooperated with my strategy, rates kept coming down to stimulate more buyers. The debt will stay but the value will drop.

A swiss banker (from a big bank that lost big recently)told me today that he does not see interest rates go up in the near future; who expected rates to go so low? Debt will crush people when interest rates will go up, because rates will go up sooner that most think.

Interest rates go up when risk go up, ask any lender (see some european countries). Central bankers cannot keep interest rates this low forever, risk is going up everywhere in the system.

#33 Condo Sucker on 10.19.11 at 10:09 pm

Continuing CREA propaganda notwithstanding, it’s startling to see the HUGE amounts of articles that are now popping up everywhere about the incoming Canadian real estate bubble.

It seems I can’t open the pages of a single business magazine nowadays without reading an article about it.

The views expoused for so long by Greater Fool are now finally shared by the mainstream business media. Well what do you know, it’s about time.

#34 les on 10.19.11 at 10:12 pm

You obviously have not ‘gotten over’ your political experiences but don’t despair as it shows your depth of character

Keep up the good work

#35 Scalgary on 10.19.11 at 10:12 pm

Thank you Harper…!

But for Harper, Garth may not have enough time to share his wisdom…

Warm Regards…!

#36 MapleLeafsSuck on 10.19.11 at 10:12 pm


payback is a bitch eh?

#37 renters rule on 10.19.11 at 10:15 pm

Not 1st

Thanks for guaranteeing Garth keeps posting.

(I’ll translate for you since you are so dense: you’re an *sshat)

#38 R on 10.19.11 at 10:15 pm

If only we had more like you in office.

#39 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.19.11 at 10:17 pm

Please don’t thank/encourage Mr. Harper and his goons (especially Princess Baird) — they are already running the country like the voters work for them and not the other way around.

#40 je on 10.19.11 at 10:17 pm

RE #22 No 1st
Give it up; what, do you expect someone can make a literal, minute-by-minute prediction of the future? 5 year olds think like that. Look at the macro picture, that is what counts. Individual companies/banks–look at their books and you can figure out for yourself where they are going. Now I know why Canada is called the home of the Loonies…

#41 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.19.11 at 10:23 pm

Wow – this is crazy!

Imagine proposing this in Vancouver:
Buy a house, get a visa

#42 OttawaMike on 10.19.11 at 10:25 pm

Garth used to be a politician?

All this time I thought he used to be a business editor for a scurrilous Toronto tabloid.

#43 OttawaMike on 10.19.11 at 10:26 pm

Smoking man,

Good post recovery today for you.

#44 Min in Mission on 10.19.11 at 10:28 pm

“tinkle in the wind” – priceless!!

#45 Marc L on 10.19.11 at 10:33 pm

Like him or not, what I will say about Harper is his command and control of the media has likely helped him stay in power. Did Paul Martin ever have problems with the media. His downfall, along with the fact that he could not say no to anyone…

By the way, I don’t think Harper wears a wig, he just combs it like that.

#46 Marc L on 10.19.11 at 10:34 pm

Smoking Man.

Looks like you may have had a session or two with that social worker. Nice job.

#47 Harlee on 10.19.11 at 10:35 pm

Thank YOU Garth.
For everyone:
“Always do the right thing. It will gratify some people and astonish the rest.”

#48 Harlee on 10.19.11 at 10:36 pm

That quote is from Mark Twain .

#49 Herb on 10.19.11 at 10:42 pm

Glad you’re still trucking blogging, but I do miss digital democracy and having a virtual MP.

#50 Tom from Mississauga on 10.19.11 at 10:42 pm

Oh, the truth. That is why everyone hates you….

#51 Robert Dudek on 10.19.11 at 10:42 pm

I think that Garth should run for the leader of the Liberal party and exact revenge on “Benito” Harper.

#52 Samson on 10.19.11 at 10:43 pm

Smoking Man – I salute you.

#53 Calgary Car Guy on 10.19.11 at 10:45 pm

Re/ #20 eaglebay-Parksville

First of all, congratulations on finding one of the five people that used the words “no charge” on that particular day in British Columbia. Remember that day. It will be a very rare day in the BPOE when you hear it again. BTW he is a wise businessman.
Secondly, I LOVE the landscape in British Columbia. I always have. Who wouldn’t? Like most Albertans and like DA alluded to in the previous blog entry BC is Alberta’s playground. Always has been. I’m 53 and have spent my whole life vacationing in BC. I remember when Albertans, British Columbians and Saskatche(wonians)(??) used to seem to share a common bond of being THE western provinces and we shared friendship. That friendship seems to have been increasingly damaged in the last decade or so. The resentment of Albertans infiltrating BC is palpable and very vocal and I’m tired of it. It reminds me of Hawaiian locals disliking tourists calling them “howlies”. In the Columbia valley Calgarians are called “gorbys” and it isn’t in a friendly way. Without Alberta money the British Columbia economy would be in much, much worse shape than they have already let it become. They would do well to realize and remember that. I’m not the only one who thinks this way.

#54 Robert Dudek on 10.19.11 at 10:45 pm

The only thing keeping this puppy afloat is that China is still growing at 9%. Once/if that changes, trouble will be knocking on the door.

#55 vatodeth on 10.19.11 at 10:46 pm

Build more Jails! Who needs housing when you can live in Jail! Why are people going to Jail! Because they’re going to need to grow marijuana too pay off their mortgage!

Destroy real estate. Cut our social programs. Make laws to burden the system with huge costs.

This government is the worst everrrrr!!!

#56 timmy on 10.19.11 at 10:52 pm

It is unfortunate that you lost your govt gig by speaking up in the interests of the people. It’s even more unfortunate that the majority of Canadians were naive and stupid enough to vote for Harper.

#57 angry anne on 10.19.11 at 10:59 pm

I really like your blog Garth, in a totally respectful and platonic kind of way, I sure hope your a little bit wrong though!

#58 the Phantom on 10.19.11 at 11:07 pm

#27 Smoking Man…best of luck on your new resolve and your recovery. Know that I meant no offence mentioning you in my post. I did find your recent editorials funny I concede but forgive me if I hurt your feelings or your self-image as that was never my intent.

We all share a common bond here and though we may think and consider matters differently and see these items through different lenses, I believe that each one of us shares a common desire to be successful, to be able to provide a positive influence with others and above all to work and succeed in making our country the best it can be.

So don’t be too hard on yourself. Was a rather successful juicer myself for a couple of decades (dry since April ’05) and so offer you this little piece of advice: We’re all human no matter how hard we try not to be sometimes. Best of luck as you reform parts of your life and I look forward to your thoughtful contributions in the days ahead.

the Phantom

#59 Dad on 10.19.11 at 11:08 pm

I close my eyes
Only for a moment and the moment’s gone
All my dreams
Pass before my eyes with curiosity

Dust in the wind
All they are is dust in the wind

Same old song Just a drop of water in an endless sea
All we do
Crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see

(Aa aa aa)

Dust in the wind
All we are is dust in the wind

Oh, ho, ho

Now don’t hang on
Nothin’ last forever but the earth and sky
It slips away
And all your money won’t another minute buy

Dust in the wind
All we are is dust in the wind
(All we are is dust in the wind)
Dust in the wind
(Everything is dust in the wind)
Everything is dust in the wind
(In the wind)

(Ooo) (Ooo) (Ooo)

#60 VanNorthshore on 10.19.11 at 11:10 pm

Lots of inventory on the Northshore MLS!
Looks like the remaining 30% of the population that is renting reads your blog! Thanks Garth.

#61 Junius on 10.19.11 at 11:11 pm

#30 Stevenson,

Must you continue being so blind to all that is around you. You just keep pumping out the same tired and predictable stuff.

#62 vatodeth on 10.19.11 at 11:13 pm

Wow! Smoking Man, when you’re sober your thoughts are so much better! That was brilliant! Your other posts are funny at times, but this was golden! Hope to read more quality from ya! Take care buddy!

#63 vyw on 10.19.11 at 11:18 pm

hi Garth:
You were a super MP.
Many thanks for your public service!

#64 S on 10.19.11 at 11:23 pm

#22 Not 1st on 10.19.11 at 9:54 pm

The blog would be a lot less interesting without the views not conforming to Garth’s way of thinking. He is a brilliant writer but has been wrong from time to time.
Garth, would you really prefer it if you only heard opinions parallel to your own? And how would that make you different from Mr. Harper?

#65 The American on 10.19.11 at 11:30 pm

For the record, Garth, you did not suck.

#66 disciple on 10.19.11 at 11:31 pm

If only disciple was here at that time to tell you the 5-year agenda de jour was debt and more debt, your ambition may have been swayed to support the bankster conspiracy rather than your conscience and today you would be Prime Minister.

Damn that spoiler named Fate.

#67 jonni on 10.19.11 at 11:33 pm

Garth ….. please forgive me for correcting your prose but “Mr. Harper, thank you.” …. should be “Mr. Harper,


#68 City Slicker on 10.19.11 at 11:36 pm

Garth, when are you going to use a pic of that well muscled body?

#69 The American on 10.19.11 at 11:40 pm

At #33: Condo Sucker, welcome to 2006!!! No, seriously, this was the mode of operation for Magazine covers and business magazine articles found in the U.S. back in the day. Well, you see how that all turned out. When all you can find is speculation in mass publications about whether or not you are in a bubble, well then you KNOW you are in a bubble, and the shit is going to hit the fan. Good luck to you, and I hope you sell Q U I C K L Y.

#70 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.19.11 at 11:51 pm

#35 Scalgary — Right on! If Harper hadn’t fallen over his massive ego, Garth would still be an MP and this would be a political blog, with a much smaller audience.

Stick to your guns Garth, and take The Road Less Traveled (for a much bigger audience).
2:13 clip Three myths about the GD; China cuts US holdings; 100K Pounds a year raised by child beggars for gangs; US$75 Trillion BoA. This is what I meant earlier by Holy Bailout Batman! DC area tops income list; Good Advice Don’t buy a house; Banks and Politics Much like Arsenic and Old Lace; Wall St. and the Bastille Good comparison;

Devotion Normally these stories don’t make news headlines; Jon Bon Jovi Still turning out great music, but more importantly, helping the less fortunate; Neat animal pix which won awards; Libya There is no ‘humanitarian’ crisis, except for the one caused by the US and NATO; Michelle (Accident Waiting To Happen) Bachmann “Of course, the fact that neither nation asked to be liberated is irrelevant. Michelle thinks we liberated them so they could continue their existence enslaved to imposed US debt!”.; Obomba King of Africa.

Stone Age Seems this is what the west wanted, and now they’ve got it, but Crumbling Empire; 6:53 clip Japan’s towns radiation levels equivalent to Chernobyl and Local Official tells young to leave Japan; Owarmonger Mentioned earlier in Holst’s The Planets, Mars was The Bringer of War. Obomba is carrying out Mars’ requests to a T; iPhone What of the SpiPhone? Bad Weather in Chicago.
Further to Waterloo Resident yesterday — you may be on to something.

#71 Nemesis on 10.19.11 at 11:59 pm

Quite a few of us understand, GT.

Did the same. Twice. In fact, something I once wrote so disturbed the Mandarins of WhiteHall that, well, my ‘operational’ privileges were unceremoniously revoked… Until they weren’t – and I was offered my choice of assignments and the Section Chief and 2IC were dismissed. I declined, returned my hardware, and took the King’s Shilling to ‘demob’ and shut-up.

Deal’s a deal. Nuff said…. However…

“speaking freely, and as truthfully as I can make it.” – Hon. GT

… is truly honorable.


#72 El Ninja on 10.20.11 at 12:00 am

You da man, Garth.

#73 Two-thirds on 10.20.11 at 12:02 am

Happy anniversary Garth!

#74 Off-Gridder on 10.20.11 at 12:04 am

Garth, indeed fate has led us to have much to be grateful for. You inspire me daily. I, like many others, see you as a true leader. I despise what is happening within the political system today and wish we had more people like you in parliament. Imagine, being thrown out of the party for being transparent and being relevant using today’s computer technology to connect with voters! It’s brilliant and obviously you were a huge threat to Harper. If ever you decided to return to politics, your time could be coming. The more Harper ruins our country the more people will blame the man with all the power. But entirely understandable if you’d rather avoid having to fix all the problems created by stupidity. Your dedication is remarkable on this blog. You’d have my young vote and I could muster up several more! :)

#75 Don on 10.20.11 at 12:07 am

Been following you for a while.

A light in the dark – I have been preparing all those around me, holding siblings off from buying houses showing them the facts. Research is a bitch to, but wow it pays off. Now they are waiting like vultures.

Oh yah rentals everywhere in Victoria, never used to be like that. That that many students returning to University – ton

Thanks Garth

#76 Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth on 10.20.11 at 12:11 am

No. 41 t.o. Bubble boy…

If that were the case then all the HAM would go south in an instant. Canada is a proxy for the Chinese. The US has so much more to offer them (the wealthy ones) than Canada.

Much more worldly extravagance for the status driven, much more leisure for those inclined, much mote excess for the show offs.

Pit BPOE against the US and BPOE goes away. For those who want education the Us private school system and universities are mich more prestigious than Canadian ones in China.

A million dollar home in hollywood, LA, SFO, Chicago, New York, Miami etc. Much more recognizable and prestigious than Van or Toronto. If that visa happened, HAM will be WHAM (was hot Asian money).

As for medical systems, for the wealthy the US is ideal – no waiting lists for cash.

And to boot, the Chinese have a cultural appetite for feeling like they got a bargain (man, how many top Mercs/BMW/Porsches have I seen Parker in front of dollarama and McD’s in Van). Pit a million dollar home in Van against the same budget in the better parts of the US and we fade in the comparison…

And if that DID happen, I’d buy a mansion just south of the border and commute to work up here, just like I used to live in Rome (Italy) but work in London (UK) a Two hour commute twice a week on a cheap airline, while my family loves for twice the quality of life (and yes, they BOTH have a subway better than Vancouver’s)…

Don’t joke about it!

Garth, you are a service to your faithful. And so long people twist your words or are too ignorant to understand your argument of balancing your investments (including RE) you have work ahead of yourself. Thank you for that!


#77 Blacksheep on 10.20.11 at 12:12 am

#175The thing in the basement.

“135 Blacksheep – if the banks fail, what happens to everybody’s deposits?”

The FDIC or equivalent, covers the known insured amounts for the depositor.

What happens if said deposits exceed the known insured amount or have no insurance at all?

Well…they take a hair cut or total loss, like the rest of the adults in the room.
I think it prudent that one do research before depositing large sums of money, with any institution.

It’s time the world grew the frig up and started taking, responsibility for their decisions.

take care,

#78 Doe Dilly on 10.20.11 at 12:12 am

A good leader never works for the people (constituents). The people (in other words, Majority) are by and large idiots. If the majority have by and large missed the boat with their own lives, then why the hell would we want their mob opinions steering our country?

A good leader should do what the hell is right for long term viability of the country and ignore the yelping of the dumb ass masses.

History will tell if Harper was good for Canada, but at least he has the courage to dictate what the people will do…and not the other way around.

#79 Soylent Green is People on 10.20.11 at 12:13 am

Ten things you don’t know about Steve Harper, the leader of Canada’s “Corporate Party”:

1. Harper’s an Evangelist (i.e. a Holy Roller, but he doesn’t believe in it, it’s just for show, it’s actually just a front for “corporate interests”)
2. He’s getting divorced (check out his website, all pics of Harper and Laureen together have been removed; note I don’t care they broke up, I care how he lies about it for two years)
2. His personal assistant Ray Novak used to live in Harper’s backyard above the garage; what wife would put up with THAT?
3. Member of the fundamentalist Christian Alliance Church (they don’t like gay people)
4. Member of the Northern Foundation (I think they don’t like black people)
5. Member of the Calgary School of Political Science (they don’t like science)
6. Leader of the Reforma/Alliance Party (they don’t like women)
7. Former Head of the National Citizens Coalition (they want to kill our national health care)
8. Supporter of The Canadian Taxpayers Federation (AstroTurfers who want to kill Canada’s social safety net while running a pyramid scheme cheating taxpayers out of revenue from wealthy corporate donors)
8. He’s not a real Red Tory Conservative; he’s a Reforma Alliance CRAP Party thing
9. His grandfather (Harper’s family is from Moncton, New Brunswick) either offed himself after becoming mentally ill or ran off with a woman, the truth is never talked about for some reason
10. The asthmatic Harper wears a $3,000 weave on top of his head (he’s obsessed with his own image and has a special salt & pepper one for elections, brown other times)
11. Steve hates to travel and didn’t get a passport until he could travel at the public’s expense
12. Steve hates being a politician, is uncomfortable in groups, really dislikes glad-handing
13. Steve Harper was president of his high school’s Young Liberals Club at Richview in Toronto; he also appeared on Reach for the Top t.v. program. Harper is not dumb, he just works for the interests of rich corporations / big business instead of for you
14. Spends every second of every waking moment plotting his scorched earth policy against Canada’s Natural Governing Party, The Liberals

Shouldn’t Steve Harper be working on other things? Like help for struggling families.

– Canadians Rallying to Unseat Steve Harper
Multi-Partisan Discussion Group of 7,000+ People Rallying to Unseat Stephen Harper


#80 Concessionman on 10.20.11 at 12:33 am

Ah the good old days…Garth on the hill…

#81 nonplused on 10.20.11 at 12:45 am

Well, I personally like your blog, except for the personal lubricant discussions. And the bond discussions.

Speaking of politics, I just got back from a fund raiser dinner thing for Danielle Steel and the Wild Rose party here in Alberta. Not that I am a member, the ticket fell in my lap, but I thought I’d go with a few co-workers because everyone is really put off by the way the PC vote came down. Another “second choice” candidate (Alison Redford) snuck up from behind to overtake the leaders, and there were rumours of tons of union members signing up last minute to swing the vote. Hardly before she was sworn in she undid a bunch of budget measures Ed left behind that the teachers weren’t happy with.

Democracy. Ugh.

The PC party definitely has to change their system. This “second choice” thing is throwing out all the top candidates, 2 times in a row now. And the teacher’s union getting involved on the right? What is this world coming to??

So watch for a changing of the guard here in Alberta next election. I don’t know if Wild Rose can form the next government, but there is a really good chance they are going to split the vote on the right. Danielle was preaching a balanced budget, pro-oil patch, eliminate waste, open government message that sells pretty well here, and the PC’s have dropped the ball. A minority Liberal government in Alberta? There will be riots.

#82 MixedBag on 10.20.11 at 12:45 am

Bat Man Head!

Love it, Smoking Man!

#83 604x on 10.20.11 at 12:47 am

The truth will set you free, for a while. But power wins the babes (ask Maxime Bernier). You might be the only guy in the country able to pull the ladies while gently whispering about a balanced portfolio. Nice work GT.

Meanwhile, back in Godless Toronto, those Godless Wall Street bankers are hinting the condo market might be massively overbuilt.

Too many quotes to attach here, although I do like how CMHC are throwing analysts under the bus with this one:

““With apartment completions currently running at 18,000 and 37,000 condo units currently under construction, there is about 4.8 years’ worth of inventory in the pipeline,” Mr. Bohren and Ms. King say. That supply about to hit the market could put downward pressure on resale prices and rents.

However, Shaun Hildebrand, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s senior market analyst for the Greater Toronto Area, said several factors suggest the risk of a correction is overblown despite the record number of condo completions in the works for this year and next.

For instance, more than 95% of units completed are sold, he said, leaving little risk of rising unsold inventory.”

#84 Van guy waiting on 10.20.11 at 12:51 am

South False Creek area:

Anyone know if there are any discounts yet in this area?

#85 nonplused on 10.20.11 at 12:52 am

Oops, that’s “Danielle Smith”, Danielle Steel is a romance novelist or something. Shows what I know about politics.

#86 RunAgainstTheWind on 10.20.11 at 1:04 am

We need someone that have the courage to speak out like you. Great job, keep it up! Just bought Money Road and all your supporters should own one!

#87 uh oh on 10.20.11 at 1:22 am

Did you recently buy US real estate out of foreclosure? You probably don’t have title, or title insurance.

#88 Devore on 10.20.11 at 1:43 am

#18 martin

why dont you ran for an intependent mp garth?

In the Canadian system, an independent has next to no power.

#89 VanBear on 10.20.11 at 1:48 am

A politicans worries about the next election. A statesman the next generation.

Speak freely Garth … thats whats marks a statesman..

#90 Aussie Roy on 10.20.11 at 2:01 am

Aussie Update

Well it’s all over folks before it really began.

There is no bubble in Aussie housing and we have a shortage. Nice bit of puff and fiction.

More Australian home owners switch to renting.

AN alarming number of home owners are ditching the white picket fence and opting to rent under financial strain.

One in five home owners dropped out of ownership from 2001to 2009, double the rate for Britain, a new study shows.

#91 Maverick on 10.20.11 at 2:02 am

US Foreclosure documentation crisis ratchets up a notch:

From ZH:


#92 Aussie Roy on 10.20.11 at 2:11 am

Aussie Update

Property lobby writes federal govt report into Aussie housing. No surprise they continue to push the mythical shortage and govt gets fooled. Of course there is no bubble in Australia, we aren’t that dumb or is it too dumb to see it. – LOL.

#93 Victor on 10.20.11 at 2:12 am

“Globalizing operations, outsourcing, selling into new markets, dumping workers, harnessing technology and doing what consumers aren’t – trashing debt – has worked. It’s why stock markets can recover when countries can’t.”

Hi Garth, would you mind to shred some lights on how the company ‘s above actions can help the equity market next year or so? are you suggesting the corporate america will bring back the jobs from the developing countries back to the developed countries?

Thanks, Victor

#94 Jody on 10.20.11 at 2:35 am

“As a politician I apparently failed. I admit it. I sucked.”

Enough with the negative waves babe, you did what you were supposed to do as a politician, you listened to the people who elected you, we all know Harpers an arse. So are the rest of them, total tossers. It’s better to have been elected for a bit and listened rather than be elected for life and constantly screwing your constituients up the backside to stay in.

For those of you following the US republican race some comedy relief, momma gets a what what, you know I represent. Ice cream!

#95 captlou on 10.20.11 at 3:37 am

An inspiring post today. Garth you have what my headmaster at Royal Navy Colledge 50 years ago called “moral fibre”. Seems to be something sadly lacking in todays politicos. Note I do not call them leaders. I was at sea for some 38 years and never lived in Canada until 1996. I came back here to this wonderful country with rose tinted glasses thinking that the government corruption and gross ineptitude was a thing found only in far away 3rd world lands. I was very wrong. Keep on fighting the good fight Garth.

#96 Echo on 10.20.11 at 4:26 am

#27 Smoking Man:

I knew you could do it. You’re so clearly an amazing soul.

…and your post wasn’t boring, it was awesome. Some others were too but now the water’s been dumped from the boots and your mind can breathe more deeply.

You go boy.
p.s. I still think there must have been merit in the letter you spoke of re the fam tolerances though. Well, or not. Not my call. If there was no merit and they’ll forgive you that’s great. If there was, stay true to yourself and thanks for the laughs. : ) (and the many informative posts through the slosh as well) So great to see you on the road to health though – makes my day to see a mind so bright above the drink.

Don’t count the days since, just go forward.

#97 Pierre on 10.20.11 at 5:03 am

thanks for TFSA and senior income splitting

#98 Echo on 10.20.11 at 6:15 am

For many who have mortgages the defaults will begin appx 3 months after the doors shut. They’ll have already cut back on other debt payments to try to meet the mortgage obligation, then come the legal threats re those credit cards and personal loans, consolidation is rarely an option due to the lack of equity, consumer spending takes a sharp hit of course, 2nd mortgages and helocs stop getting paid, accrued interest mounts on all debts, bankruptcy is the only option, bye bye house. (ANY equity makes it an asset that must br liquidated by the trustee.)

Because of consumer spending issues (over stretched consumers due to greed creating debt), soon you will see this type of corp restructuring. Simple modernization demands are also a major factor but you’ll see these stories getting closer together in the future because of the profit loss issues. Then just refer to the pattern
above again.

Like I’ve always said, the next few years is going to make the early 90’s look less severe…and they were severe.

If your idea of an investment is the house you live in but the Bank actually owns most of it, SELL. If you own most of it, SELL. In the first scenario you’re getting out before something goes wrong like an interest adjustment or a job loss (see above pattern again), and in the second you’re putting slaved for equity into places it can earn you money and keep you relatively safe from the chaos, as well as earn a nice income, you know, to live rent free and enjoy something called “life” from that lovely rental.

One final tidbit, the Banks mortgage arrears depts are already feeling a higher than normal strain from delinquent file overload – you ain’t seen nothing yet.

#99 Joe The Plumber on 10.20.11 at 6:17 am

You picture yourself as an angel. Isn’t there a tiny little bit of evil somewhere in you also? I mean, besides the lubrication thing ….

Keep on writing, I enjoy my daily dose. Your blog was the lift off from my world of financial ignorance. I see stars of opportunities now. I only wish you were more open to Eastern Canada, including Quebec. We do read you and have houses there too.

#100 Echo on 10.20.11 at 6:38 am

Should have added the obvious:

All of these houses will hit the market under Power of Sale or Foreclosure, depending on the location and who holds the mortgage. “Fair Matket Value” drops because of volume, i.e. simple competition for a sale.

If you want to make A TON of money in the next few years become a C.R.A. (the kind of appraisers the Banks HAVE to hire for the file to protect their chosen list price), an inspector set out to get a great rep and who targets Banks as clients (Banks need to do their own inspections very often for a plethora of reasons, it’s irrelevant of the buyer’s inspection), or a Trustee. These 3 jobs are done, for different reasons as explained, whether the house stays on the market for 3 days or 3
years. Ka Ching.

#101 David B on 10.20.11 at 7:05 am

Not all has been lost Mr. Turner, it is safe to say you have first and foremost “Your self respect” and did achieve not one but financial perks for all Canadians, income splitting and TFSA’s . Of course your are and remain “The Right Honourable Garth Turner” these accomplishments + (others far to long to list) place you in the top 1% of the people in the world of 7 Billion people. If and when the day comes ( suspect not to far off) few will miss it for long because life is like that, but I am quite sure the sun will rise and moon will set and you new spotlight will be turn on you once again.

Real Estate is fast becoming non fashionable as multi millions of Seniors look for a good rental home and many young people move around looking for work and find renting their best option.

Investments …. there is more money now than ever on this planet and the investors are looking hard 24/7 to find just the right mix and plan for their clients. Their will be winners and losers hello is that always been ture, so educate yourself, carry little debt and get out and enjoy life.

#102 Rudolf on 10.20.11 at 7:09 am

It seems that politicians are being voted into power again and again simply based on how convincing they have been in presenting their unrealistic promises for a better tomorrow – how many babies they have kissed on the campaign trail – or how many pancakes they have flipped in small town Diners to impress the local yokels.

The morning after the political circus is over, the winner appears at press conferences with a grinning face to declare victory. Even the losers are still smiling when they are trying to explain what went wrong. None of them will reveal that less than 50% of eligible voters have actually decided the outcome of the election.

Entire empires and political ideologies have bit the dust because of their high-handed rulings. Several “Western Democracies” may be next in line. Greece is one example what happens when peasants start revolting against their bankrupt government.

The USA is another case in point where only two biassed parties take turns in running the affairs of the country for their own benefits. Instead of trying for once in earnest to find a nonpartisan solution for the economic mess they are currently in, Republicans as well as Democrats are fighting each other to gain some brownie points for the next presidential election. No one cares about the effect their selfish manoeuvring has on the unwashed masses.

#103 debtified on 10.20.11 at 7:14 am

Garth, you and Mr. Harper are equally great in what you each do. You’re a great public servant and he’s a great politician.

Thank you.

#104 Onemorething on 10.20.11 at 7:38 am

Some of us have the luck to find out what we are actually good at doing. It takes time, huge nuts and thinking for yourself to get there!

For those of us that get there, life is easy, the message clear!

#105 Gonzo on 10.20.11 at 7:42 am

Garth, I have been following your blog since the beginning and have learned a lot along the way.
One thing I miss though is your probabilistic approach to planning for the future…. I remember when things were bad back in ’08 you were encouraging people to get a generator, and other “what if” supplies. Not because you thought they were going to be needed, but because the low chance of something really bad happening justified their cost.
You may think that a recession (or worse) is unlikely now, but… what if? In my mind, the underlying problems in 2008 still exist (too much debt). I think the what if is now… What if municipalities, states, and countries start defaulting on their debt? Certainly this won’t be the U.S. or us or other large countries, but what about the Greeks, Spanyards, Italians, Californians, etc…? What if the default isn’t as orderly as everyone hopes? Do you think there is a zero/5/10 percent chance of this happening?
I’m not saying this would change what you recommend, but I do think it is worth thinking about. I find when you say things like, this won’t be another 2008, it ignores the small, but real risk of a really bad outcome.
What would you say the chances are now of another recession or worse? I would put the chance of a recession as very high (50%) and the chance of a depression at 15%… but that’s just me

#106 Pr on 10.20.11 at 7:47 am

..Five years ago this week I watched myself being fired, live on national television.Mr. Harper, thank you. – I love it! Thats the spirit!

#107 Moneta on 10.20.11 at 7:49 am

Some of us have the luck to find out what we are actually good at doing. It takes time, huge nuts and thinking for yourself to get there!
In today’s world, nearly everything pays peanuts. Millions are forced into jobs they don’t really care about to be able to afford an acceptable standard of living.

#108 bigrider on 10.20.11 at 7:50 am

Best post Garth in a long time, Thanks. I have forwarded link to many.

“It’s why stock markets can recover when countries can’t”

That belief requires a leap of faith however.

#109 debtified on 10.20.11 at 8:05 am

Smoking Man, please stay true to yourself. Who are you trying to impress? Take you eyes off the computer screen and look around you.

Some people just take themselves too seriously on this blog. Their misery is palpable. It’s one thing to participate and contribute. It’s a whole other thing to be developing a sense of self-importance.

Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate facts being shared, false information being disputed and the amusement (i.e. you). For the rest of the clutter here, I’ve learned that it’s much easier to simply ignore-&-scroll than being self-righteous.

#110 bigrider on 10.20.11 at 8:11 am

#30 Stevenson-

I would like to ask you, a realtore, why does CMHC exist?

Better, why do we allow CMHC to exist?

#111 bigrider on 10.20.11 at 8:16 am

Garth, one ugly , frustrating truth .If you watch the bond market as closely as you say you do, it is flashing a decline in rates. If we see a drop by 100 basis points here in North America over next 6 months or so, we will more than likely see increasing RE prices BEFORE the great blow off.

The RE bulls will continue to have a field day for the next little while before they get their proverbial balls handed to them over the next decade.

#112 john on 10.20.11 at 8:28 am

So….what does the ship building contract mean for atlantic real estate?

#113 daystar on 10.20.11 at 8:37 am

#22 Not 1st on 10.19.11 at 9:54 pm

Gold, while being a gentle riser 9 of 10 years, (believe me, gold wasn’t the number one pick of the litter until this year) has had only one year where it has outperformed commodities elsewhere. 2011. Thats it, sorry to say about our like for shiny things.

And if JPM and B of A are in trouble, they why are they still in business? I’d like you to prove it if you could, please.

And this thing you have with change. Do you really believe that a wide spread systemic economic crash is both needed and here at any minute? You might want to rethink that one. The true challenges to this economy are one’s of currency and the division of manufacturing between the nations and environmental being the electrification of cars and both are heavily intertwined. Don’t think for a minute that the ideology of both CEO’s and governments play heavily here and its hard not to agree with Garth at least in Canada that we could do a whole lot better than we have.

While horizontal drilling, ocean and tar sands have filled the production gap for the time being, peak oil will not wait and what has recently happened with wheat boards gone in Canada and Austrailia won’t help food prices going forward. Readers would appreciate it if you backed up you assumptions with facts when it comes down to criticisms (as I will my own) or you’ll simply end up as another boy who cried wolf, a dime a dozen in this age.

#114 GTA Girl on 10.20.11 at 8:52 am

The post which states bullet point facts on Harper is mostly correct. What goes on behind the scenes is nasty business these days. Too much spin and behind the scenes alliances which the average Canadian would be shocked.

The scandals and mass corruption behind the curtain are jaw dropping. The scum floating on the surface, seen by the public such as Clements $50mill gazebo-gate, Fantino’s $10mill to campaign staff hides the murky depth of Bruce Carson and worse.

When media is frightened and strong armed not to report in depth, opposition strategically ‘assassinated’ , and grass roots within the party muzzled, Canadians have much to fear.

#115 I'm Not Angry (Anymore) on 10.20.11 at 8:55 am

Hi Garth: I am one of the 99.9% of your readers who never comments but I hope you’ll find this interesting because it shows what lurks beneath the veneer of “success”. I’m a wage slave at one of the Big 5 banks and one of the guys in our department has it all. $700,000 house north of the city, stay-at-home wife with a gaggle of kids, a couple of condos rented out downtown, vacations in the sun a few times a year. Oh yeah, he pumps real estate on the side as well. I sold my place in the spring and I am renting. He laughs at me every day and tells me now is the time to buy. I always tell him I’ll buy HIS house in a few years when he will be begging me to take it off his hands at a discounted price. That day may be coming soon because the funny thing is that he wanted to buy something the other day that cost a few hundred dollars and he couldn’t because he has maxed out everything. I ended up buying the item on my credit card for him because I’m a nice guy. Maybe I should starting loan sharking to down-on-their-luck realtors?

#116 Frank on 10.20.11 at 8:56 am

I do not believe that RE in Canada will tank, it may go flat, but not tank. I find it weird that so many on this blog would want RE to crash, it will hurt all of us if that happens.

We do not need a ‘tanking’ to have impact. There are so many people with less than 10% equity, that a 15% market correction would put them under water, with emotional and economic consequences. — Garth

#117 The American on 10.20.11 at 9:33 am

At #41: T.O. Bubble Boy, I hope I am detecting immense sarcasm in your post. That kind of behavior has been going on in Canada for years and years. Hence why HAM is so prominent in Vancouver. Otherwise, please refer to posting #76 from “Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth.” He pretty much accurately sums it up.

On the same note, I read a post the other day on here from a Vancouverite, stating he had seen Chinese tour buses increasing in Seattle over the past year from British Columbia. I can tell you it is quite true. They aren’t here just to look at the Space Needle, Kubota Gardens, Discovery Park, The Arboretum, and Pike’s Market. They’re looking to buy brick and mortar, and the buying has most definitely begun in affluent areas like Downtown Seattle,West Bellevue, Medina (one of the richest zip codes in the U.S.), Madison Park, and Hunts Point. No no… these areas are no longer reserved for Microsofties,, and Russians. These are, for the most part, cash deals or require very little financing.

What is happening, is they are sending their children to esteemed research universities, such of University of Washington (with an operating budget in excess of $4.0 Billion, which is part of its appeal to many). They want their children to receive superlative educations, and the UW does provide that on many levels through many degree programs, albeit a public institution. Here’s only a few, for example: In 2011, the University of Washington was ranked 16th worldwide by the Academic Ranking of World Universities. In 2010, the University of Washington was ranked 23rd worldwide by the Times Higher Education World University Rankings. In 2006, the University of Washington ranked 22nd internationally by Newsweek “Top 100 Global Universities”. The Performance Ranking of Scientific Research Papers of World Universities ranked UW 4th internationally in terms of overall research productivity. Human Resources & Labor Review ranked the university 13th internationally in 2011, tied with Cornell University. The UW School of Medicine is ranked No.1 in primary care and No.9 in research. The UW Graduate School of Nursing has been ranked No.1 in the nation since 1984, when the first survey of graduate nursing schools was conducted. The School of Public Health and Community Medicine is as well ranked fourth by US News.

The program alone is enough to draw the HAM, and then the parents are piggy backing off of the notion to establish “student housing” for their child/children at university and then move in.

#118 disciple on 10.20.11 at 9:42 am

Bonds make the world go round.
They are promises to pay backed up by the threat of force on an exploited third party, and/or by the goodwill between both parties. If this is unclear to you, just ask me to clarify further.

Bond rates foretell the self-fulfilling prophecies of the economic messiahs to come. If you imagine that bonds are like the Bible of Money, then equities are merely like the bookmarks, directing you to which bonds to buy…. if you follow that religion, so to speak, which I don’t. I don’t play that game, I circumvent it, like someone who sees a group of people fighting over a tree, and simply does not get involved, and finds another tree.

I read in one of the tabloids that foreign purchasers are slowing their appetite for Canadian bonds, which spells trouble for many Canadians due to increasing rates.

In Greece, severe austerity measures have already been implemented, and yet, bond holders (banks) are demanding more austerity before they will extend the privilege to the exploited third party (Greek people) of lending them more money. Now why didn’t your local MSM retailer explain it to you like this?

#119 Frank on 10.20.11 at 9:48 am


I do agree with you on that it would only take a 15% market correction to hurt some people that are in way over their head in debt, but it should not kill the RE market in Canada the way it did in the U.S. I sold my condo a few years ago in downtown Toronto and I did pretty good and now those same condos are up at least 20% from what I sold it for. I do not regret selling since I moved out to PTBO and put the money in a plan and did even better. I do believe that your financial advice is sound.

#120 eaglebay - Parksville on 10.20.11 at 9:56 am

#53 Calgary Car Guy on 10.19.11 at 10:45 pm

Not to start a pissing contest but, half the people I’ve met so far is BC, are from Alberta.
When in Alberta, more then half the people I met, we’re from somewhere else.
Welcome to Western Canada.
By the way, I’m also an Alberta car guy, at the controllership level.

#121 disciple on 10.20.11 at 9:58 am

We need to transport stuff from producer to consumer. We need to maintain/improve medical health for all.
We need to ensure everyone receives a standard education and opportunity for a higher one.
We need to provide outlets for artistic and creative pursuits in all fields of knowledge.
We need to vigorously prevent crime not just react to it.

We need to SHARE EVERYTHING. A return to the Golden Age. Those of you who want to be greedy and embrace the dark side of your psyche, where demons live inside of your head, should continue to be driven from the Garden. Please understand that EVIL is only a recent visitor to the Earth, and it will soon pass as soon as we fix our minds possibly through the use of herbs (pharmakia), a closely guarded secret. Christ is a mushroom.

Notice how none of the above requires the use of currency or interest or even money itself. Funny that.

#122 eaglebay - Parksville on 10.20.11 at 10:02 am

#55 vatodeth on 10.19.11 at 10:46 pm

Been looking all over the place to find a new jail or a new jail being built by the Canadian Government.
Cannot find any. Can somebody help?
Facts not fiction.

#123 The thing in the basement on 10.20.11 at 10:02 am

77 Blacksheep – thanks for the reply. Bit I’m not sure that what you describe is actually allowing the bank to fail. Check out the vid here at 60 minutes. Yea it’s american but I believe you can apply much of the same principles.

Remember – this stuff wasnt around in the great depression when banks “failed”.

#124 Daisy Mae on 10.20.11 at 10:05 am

“Mr. Harper, thank you.”


You bet. And I hope the 39% ‘majority’ are pleased with themselves. But then, actually, was there ANYONE worthy of our vote last time ’round?

#125 Daisy Mae on 10.20.11 at 10:13 am

I have an acquaintance who adores Harper — gosh, he’s the “greatest thing since sliced bread” but I also have a frig magnet that states: “Never make the mistake of arguing with someone whose opinion you do not respect”…so we don’t talk politics.

#126 Stevenson on 10.20.11 at 10:17 am

Clearly it is hard for CANADIANS to raise a family in Vancouver on low income and tough tax measures in Canada. No matter how low the interest rates are the loaners are not idiots and if you can’t afford. you don’t get a mortgage.

Which brings me to my point, who is buying these properties in Vancouver? The working class? The poor? or people who are able to prove that they can repay the debt and people who pay with cash.

It’s very simple demand and supply. They are more wealthy people out there then you think OUTSIDE of Canada and a RE crash would cause very minimal or no damage to there diverse portfolio. Where else can you find conditions like Vancouver? On top of an investment it may be its for a Summer cottage or a Winter layover for Whistler.

A wealthy couple shows up in Vancouver with twice the income and decides whoa…this does not make sense. Why is the RE so expensive here in Van?? To them they don’t understand why its so expensive or is it because they don’t want to fork out the dough? Not everyone is willing pay for the maintenance of a Ferrari. If they don’t someone else who wants to live a specific type of lifestyle will.

There is RE that people all over the world can buy. Why Vancouver? Are they all stupid or is it stupid in the perspective of the stupid?

Think what you want, but if some of the +1.5mil real estate properties in Vancouver and GTA are getting bidding wars during a low season. Sold Sold Sold is all you see in high demand areas. No one is telling you to buy in timbaktoo or old citizen home Victoria. You can call them pockets, but believe in what you want to. As the media is fake, the politicians are misleading, and the world is going to end. Somebody has their mind set already. This will not end well….. yes you’re right, but the question now is for who?

Stay tuned…. you waited a few years already anyways.

#127 Toon Town Boomer on 10.20.11 at 10:24 am

Garth at least your children ( if you have any) can be proud of you for not supporting or being part of the cartel that is destroying the future of Canadians. We must remember when we contribute to greed we are contributing to hurting the next generation which is all of our loved ones.

#128 Rt Honorable S Harper on 10.20.11 at 10:36 am

Dear Garth
You are still fired.

#129 disciple on 10.20.11 at 10:48 am

My estimates:

Total Canadian asset wealth = 6 trillion dollars or roughly 200,000 dollars for every man, woman, and child.

Total government, household, and corporate debt = 5 trillion dollars.

But these are 2009 numbers (roughly). So, we have as much debt as assets, I assume because most of that wealth is in housing, which is likely to decrease. Great. Where is the progress?

Corporate debt to equity is roughly 50% while the household equivalent is 150%. And corporate debt is no longer beholden to the financial situation of the countries they are situated in due to global trade. Welcome to Canuckistan, the frozen Banana Republic.

#130 foolsrushin on 10.20.11 at 10:51 am

I can’t find fault with any person who has informed/educated themselves and who stands up for their convictions, right or wrong. You paid a price but thats a far smaller tax then carrying the burden of being a yes man on the sidelines for years. Maybe you could have reached the top of the pile and even moved it abit for a period but the outcome would still be the same. Your voice was and is still heard regardless. I look forward to more no holding back comments (like it wasn’t this way before – LOL) but remember NO ONE is right 100% of the time regardless of what stage of life your in. What’s that saying about catching more flies with honey… I know its just not your style.

#131 SLN on 10.20.11 at 10:52 am

This was a great post, Garth.

However, worshipping productivity increases and their indicators mean very little if the people do not have jobs with security, good wages and benefits.

Can’t productivity include humanity?

#132 Van guy waiting on 10.20.11 at 11:18 am

Frank #116

Does any market with steep upswings ever end flat? Boom=Bust. Yea a crash would effect everyone, but you can’t control reality. Shit happens in this world.

#133 Scalgary on 10.20.11 at 11:21 am

CEO of TD is buying(atleast after a year…!) Garth’s stand on canadian economy:

#134 bigrider on 10.20.11 at 11:38 am

A lovely RE pump piece.

No RE bubble in the GTA…LOL

#135 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.20.11 at 11:39 am

@ #78 Doe Dilly

A good leader never works for the people (constituents). The people (in other words, Majority) are by and large idiots. If the majority have by and large missed the boat with their own lives, then why the hell would we want their mob opinions steering our country?

A good leader should do what the hell is right for long term viability of the country and ignore the yelping of the dumb ass masses.

You’re missing the point buddy… no one believes that politicians/leaders should simply poll their constituents to make every decision (or else you end up like most of U.S. Politics).

However, that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be acting in the *best interests of the Country* in your actions.

Why don’t you explain to me how custom golden Business Cards that remove the word “Canada” for John Baird or backroom deals for sending wasted G20 funds directly to Tony Clement’s buddies are good for the country?

Or – for Stevie H or Mr. F (and sticking to topics more relevant to this blog), how were CMHC-backed 0/40 mortgages in the best interest of the Country?

How about political attack ads that waste everyone’s time and ignore real policy debates?

How about mandating that everyone use the phrase “The Harper Government” instead of “The Government of Canada”.

Prove to me that any of these ideas show leadership — they all sounds like pure narcissism to me. (and, these types of actions are not in the best interest of the Country).

#136 smartalox on 10.20.11 at 11:56 am

Garth, if you are responsible for the TFSA, but decry tax free savers stuffing the Orange guy’s shorts, why didn’t you arrange to call it something else? Tax free investment account, for example?

#137 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 12:02 pm

#116Frank on 10.20.11 at 8:56 am
I do not believe that RE in Canada will tank, it may go flat, but not tank. I find it weird that so many on this blog would want RE to crash, it will hurt all of us if that happens.

We do not need a ‘tanking’ to have impact. There are so many people with less than 10% equity, that a 15% market correction would put them under water, with emotional and economic consequences. — Garth

And whose fault is that but their own? Blame government incentive by ultra-low interest rate, blame REALTORS for writing the deal at the request of the buyer, blame the mortgage broker instructed to get them the money, blame the “nesting” housewife, blame whoever you want but ultimately these “Greater Fools” were free autonomous human beings responsible for the consequences of their own actions. You learn from your mistakes if not by observing or being warned by those of others.

I’m so sick and tired of the blame game. Grow up people. We are each responsible for ourselves and the consequence of our actions.

The market is not going to ‘tank’. Most general markets have already incurred that 15% market correction Garth speaks of – a figure he has stated since the inception of this “pathetic blog” – and we are still doing just fine. I don’t see much more price capitulation ahead. What you are seeing in Toronto and Vancouver is the Urbanization of the population which as is taking place worldwide. For the first time in recorded history more people live in cities than rural. Of course it’s going to increase demand and prices.

Yes there are some sad stories and will be more. Do yourself a favour and learn from the mistakes of those others.

By the way, congratulations Garth on this the anniversary of your career change.

#138 johnny5z on 10.20.11 at 12:08 pm

Great post and thanks for the spell check yesterday.

An interesting comment I read about a few years ago was that bubbles are not an anomaly, but a “feature” of the market economy. We should expect a frenzy and keep clear of it. As they say,
Buy on canons,
Sell on trumpets!

#139 Waterloo Resident on 10.20.11 at 12:08 pm

Funny thing is that in the past 3 weeks I have seen 7 houses in my area being put up for sale and today every single one of them is ‘SOLD’ ! Not one of them took more than 5 to 8 days to find a buyer, and most of them sold for OVER ASKING PRICE. No bidding wars but lots and lots of interest in homes still here in Kitchener-Waterloo, with single family homes selling for between $300,000 and $800,000 each !

Now for the bad news: The old JM Schneider Inc. meat-packing plant in Kitchener is closing, placing 1,200 people on the street without jobs. I guess all of those workers being let go are the ones who are buying these $600,000 houses, they know that there are no more jobs so they hope to make income as their homes continue to rise in value, that’s the ONLY GAME IN TOWN now.

#140 disciple on 10.20.11 at 12:20 pm

I had a sneaking suspicion that the Occupy movement was a staged event like the Arab Spring. Here is some evidence to support this notion. If the MSM ever dared utter the word staged in the same sentence with any of the above, the obvious question would be… by WHOM?

#141 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 12:30 pm

And so too is it of the banks. Those who lent to those they ought not have sould be left to deal with that deadbeat on their own tab not that of we who acted responsibly.

#142 Ron on 10.20.11 at 12:41 pm

It certainly would be nice to live in a world where more people took care of each other instead of the bottom line, wouldn’t it?

Anyway, happy anniversary Garth.

On another note, in speaking with friends in Spain, the economy is worse now then it ever was. On top of the increasing 21% unemployed, there are municipal governments who cannot pay their bills within 60 days. There is new RE that has not been sold years after completion.

Do not fool yourself into thinking that anything will be over soon just because Greece gets its financing. These austerity measures are too sharp and too fast for people to absorb.

It took Germany a decade to see progress in its re-structuring. And this is the EU power house. Imagine how long it will take Greece.

Things will HAVE to get worse before they get better. It’s the cost of severe restructuring being shoved down ones throat.

In my opinion, we are in for a decade long recession until these economic foundations are re-built.

#143 jess on 10.20.11 at 12:52 pm

Why No one helps? Twisted Logic

Shocking Foshan incident reveals an unspoken illness at China’s coreT
The story of a driver hitting a child on purpose isn’t just down to our compensation laws – it goes back to the cultural revolution
reddit this Comments (123)Yajun Zhang, Wednesday 19 October 2011 12.27 BST Article history
Toddler left dying after hit and run prompts soul searching in ChinaFootage of a two-year-old girl being hit by a truck and then ignored by passersby in Foshan has been watched 1.5m times


2006 November 20, also Nanjing, a young person named Peng Yu [picture above] kindly helped up an old woman who had fallen down, and at the request of the old woman took her to the hospital. The result was that this old woman then maintained that it was Peng Yu who the person who had knocked her down. Peng Yu strongly denied that he knocked over the old woman. Both sides eventually went to court and Peng Yu was fined in the first instance to bear a portion of the old woman’s medical expensies, totally over 40,000 yuan, on the basis “common sense” that: “According to society’s logic/reason, if Peng Yu was doing a good deed, Peng Yu could have let the old woman’s family send her to the hospital after they arrived, and then leave on his own. However Peng Yu did not make such a choice, and his actions contract what is reasonable”; “Peng Yu, on the day of the incident, paid the old woman over 200 yuan and even did not request that the old woman pay him back”; etc. What is worth raising is that the Peng Yu Incident triggered discussions on various major websites. One website’s blog homepage headline impressively was: Survey: 80% of bloggers choose not to be good people anymore.

scheme to turn the EFSF into a bond insurer

The European Union’s competition watchdog said Wednesday it conducted unannounced inspections at several banks amid suspicions they may have colluded to manipulate euro interest rate derivatives.

The European Commission ,U.S. Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission were looking into suspected manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate, which is a benchmark rate similar to the Euribor but used much more widely.

The Euribor is set by a group of 44 banks and is based on the interest rates they charge for lending to other financial institutions

#144 Daisy Mae on 10.20.11 at 1:03 pm

Dr. Fred on 10.20.11 at 10:35 am “It takes a big man to admit that they failed. Kudos.”


Garth did not fail. He remained true to himself….and Harper couldn’t possibly tolerate that. MPs do it Harpers way or no way — simple as that.

#145 Soylent Green is People on 10.20.11 at 1:36 pm


Canada’s Tory Tradition is Now Officially Dead

The Conservative Party that started with Sir John A. MacDonald officially dissolved in 2003, when the Reform-Alliance bought them out, replacing the Progressive Conservative platform with a Republican style conservatism.

Though a few of the old progressives or what were referred to as ‘Red Tories’, remained, Stephen Harper made it his mission to change that.


#146 Ron Mendelson on 10.20.11 at 1:39 pm

Keep up the good work Garth.

The unfortunate reality of the times we live in is people simply refuse to believe the truth if it is not what they want to hear.

As you have said time and again, those will learn when it is already too late to react.

Unfortunate, but true



#147 Grimbot on 10.20.11 at 1:48 pm

Hey Garth….we still miss you as a politician! It was so refreshing to actually have someone in office that cared about voters…the impact of policy decisions…and was willing to reach out to the public.

#148 Dorothy on 10.20.11 at 1:51 pm

#53 – Calgary Guy
I remember the days you refer to, when all those living in the western provinces felt a common bond, and I agree with you that feeling has all but disappeared.
The reason is partly because of “oil rich” individuals buying recreational property here in BC at ridiculously high prices, thus driving real estate beyond the price range that locals can afford to pay.
Those who were born and raised here became resentful when they found they were unable to afford even a modest home, while at the same time seeing very luxurious properties owned by people who only live here in the summer. So the reason for the change in attitude towards Albertans is part jealousy and part resentment. But mainly resentment, because its felt that if those buying property had been a little bit more discerning, they could have done so without driving prices to such high levels. People would have welcomed the tourist dollars into our economy, if it could have been done (as in the past) in such a way as to avoid making buying a home here so unaffordable.
In the days you remember, Alberta tourists tended to be just that, tourists. Not part time residents. But those who did buy real estate here, tended to own cottages which they purchased at realistic prices. Nowadays, many such out of province visitors own McMansions for which they paid far too much, and the building of which has made much of what used to be publicly accessible shoreline inaccessible for those who live here permanently.
So given that this activity has resulted in the locals being unable to afford a decent home here, and less able to access their own natural recreational resources, why are you so surprised Albertans have come to be resented? I would have thought it inevitable.

#149 poco on 10.20.11 at 2:04 pm

#105 Gonzo

What if municipalities, states, and countries start defaulting on their debt? Certainly this won’t be the U.S. or us or other large countries

google –usa city bankruptcy—-you might be surprised

#150 Form Man on 10.20.11 at 2:06 pm

#141 Devil’s Advocate

The problem is the banks simply passed the risk on to the taxpayers via CMHC. As I survey the wreckage that is the Kelowna housing market ( something like 2 to 3 years of inventory), I am amazed that there are still idiots in this town who believe that the solution is to provide more incentive to developers. Did you all skip grade school math ? what part of the demand/supply equation do you not understand ? The last thing Kelowna needs right now is more buildings. What we do need are solid job-creating industries ( not the boom bust jobs from a real estate bubble ). If every realtor was run out of town today it would likely be the best thing that ever happened to the Okanagan……

#151 GregW, Oakville on 10.20.11 at 2:23 pm

Thanks Garth for speaking up! I hope you are still able too in the future, Depending on how PM Harper changes Canada with is Majority of MP in Parlements now?? I hope your personal experiance isn’t forshadowing things to come?

Hi Nasta,
Have you see this artcle about derivatives yet?
I’m in the Most People group; “Most people don’t talk much about derivatives because they simply do not understand them.”. I hope the ‘could’ in the title does not become ‘will’.

#152 james on 10.20.11 at 2:27 pm

Good Looking Out Smokin Man!!!

I salute you!

#153 calgary64 on 10.20.11 at 2:28 pm

we appreciate your work. you reinforced my decision not to buy a residence. though you have not yet succeeded in getting me to invest all my cash. i guess cash is not too bad a position this year?

#154 Devore on 10.20.11 at 2:30 pm

#84 Van guy waiting

South False Creek area:

Anyone know if there are any discounts yet in this area?

A few. But the land lease is coming up, so they’re not very good deals. Or they’re leaking, and haven’t had the work done yet. Mostly just a lot of whining that the city hasn’t told anyone what they will do with the land yet, so most are holding out, some are trying to bail.

#155 Devore on 10.20.11 at 2:44 pm

#102 Rudolf

The USA is another case in point where only two biassed parties take turns in running the affairs of the country for their own benefits. Instead of trying for once in earnest to find a nonpartisan solution for the economic mess they are currently in, Republicans as well as Democrats are fighting each other to gain some brownie points for the next presidential election.

See, you realize both sides are playing the same rigged game, wearing their contrasting jerseys, waving their banners and having at each other in front of cameras, playing golf and having lunch together behind the scenes.

And yet, even you, who can see the them for what they are, expect them to magically come together and do what is right. You keep voting different faces in, hoping for change. This time will be different, they say. You hope. But what is obvious, perhaps too obvious and painful to admit after all these decades, is nothing will change, and the bogus and arbitrary left-right paradigm merely serves to keep status quo.

Certainly, plenty on this web site have bought into it, hook, line and sinker.

#156 Bill Gable on 10.20.11 at 2:53 pm

Harper got rid of you because you are a LEADER.
Your tremendous workload aside, you still find time to help people.
I regret to my shoes that Mr. Turner is not PM, although then we would be all losing this daily dose of great advice.
Thanks Mr. Harper.

#157 jess on 10.20.11 at 3:04 pm

straw sick people : straw buyers in real estate
Since their inception in March 2007, Strike Force operations in nine locations have charged more than 1,140 defendants who collectively have falsely billed the Medicare program for more than $2.9 billion. In addition, the HHS Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, working in conjunction with the HHS-OIG, are taking steps to increase accountability and decrease the presence of fraudulent providers.

Private Ambulances Take Medicare, Taxpayers for a Ride (by Terri Langford, Houston Chronicle)

Medicare and the American public pay for the ride – dubiously and often – billed to the U.S. government as trips of medical necessity to “clinics” or “hospitals,” a Houston Chronicle investigation has found. Much of it fueled by the daily trafficking of the mentally ill and fragile to so-called therapy programs in aging strip malls, mid-rises and residential neighborhoods.Many of the patients are neither physically debilitated nor confined to a sick bed. They are not headed to, or coming from the hospital, and there is no medical emergency.

Companies make millions off the poor, vulnerable – whether passengers need services or not

#158 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 3:10 pm

#149Dorothy on 10.20.11 at 1:51 pm

RE: your post to
#53 – Calgary Guy

It happens. The market drives prices up and the market drives prices down. Get over it. I too was born, raised, live and work here. I have no resentment what-so-ever against Albertans or Chinese for pushing our real estate prices up. It was just a matter of time. Was it they who paid too much or they who asked too much to blame, or was it just the market? It is what it is…

#151Form Man on 10.20.11 at 2:06 pm

CMHC is just fine. Ever check out the insurance premiums for high ratio financing? And it is not the whole mortgage they cover but just that shortfall once sold through the foreclosure sale process. So if a homeowner financed 100% a $100,000 home and defaulted with $100,000 still owing and the bank sold it for $90,000 less $10,000 in selling costs the difference CMHC would write a cheque to the bank for would be $20,000 ($100,000-$90,000+$10,000).
And ya those damned REALTORS eh? Responsible for everything.

#159 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 3:24 pm

#151Form Man on 10.20.11 at 2:06 pm

And what’s it to you if I build ten thousand residential units on my tab. My risk, your entertainment.

But there are a whole lot of trades people who are happy to see the work and a whole lot of truck dealers behind them happy to provide them new trucks and furniture dealers behind them ready to sell the truck salesman a new sofa and TV and a whole lot of grocers ready to provide the lot of them food not to mention restaurateurs and barbers or hair stylists…. get my point Form Man. What is it you do anyway? Are you not interested in benefiting from this multiplier effect?

If I see a demand I will seek to fill it.

#160 WI BOOMER on 10.20.11 at 3:27 pm

Dear Garth-

Your service in Parliment was I’m sure complimentary for the masses, but not necessarily the Asses. Your advice here has been right on the money -to those who can hear! We sometimes have seen the same among our elected, but going forward I doubt so much. We need more parties not just Asses and Elephants neither serve the people very well.
Yes, the world still turns, works, and goes on with its daily business. There is fear going forward, as is almost always the case isn’t it? We bitch taxes are too high, same for good employment being hard to find. RE is still for sale, and is bought & sold daily.
My point is that, your success, or failure is largely up to no one, except you! Did I “force you” to go into debt, be it a student loan, car, house? Can’t pay your bills, well… that’s called tough s*it most places. They’re YOUR bills.
Choices, we all have them. We all make them. Try to THINK before making them in haste, and make them the BEST ones you can!

Congrats on your choice to refrain from the booze. That takes a lot, man. Good choice though, and never fear your posts are always fun, and a learning experience. Never Boring, and I have learned a lot. Go Bat Man!

#161 Moneta on 10.20.11 at 3:29 pm

A good leader should do what the hell is right for long term viability of the country and ignore the yelping of the dumb ass masses

Well I am willing to bet that a lot of our leaders are 100% sure that real estate won’t go down.

So now tell me, how many here want our leaders to not listen to their constituents and follow their own convictions based on their real estate convictions?

#162 Form Man on 10.20.11 at 3:39 pm

#159 Devil’s Advocate

CMHC likely will be fine……they packaged the insured mortgages and sold them on the securities market ( sound familiar ?) Investors are only too happy to buy these securities because of the ‘implicit guarantee’ of the Government of Canada….i.e. the Canadian taxpayer. I note you were unable to articulate a response to my assertion about mathematically challenged ‘pollyannas’. I work in the development business, my wife does also. I know a bit about the nonsense you are spewing……Start by being truthful with people and perhaps you can regain a small bit of integrity……

#163 Moneta on 10.20.11 at 3:39 pm

In fact it’s like picking up the monopoly game board whacking the winner in the head with it, and starting a new game where everyone gets to play again.
Perfect analogy. The Monopoly games I played in my youth ALWAY ended like that.

That’s why I’m convinced that is how it will all shake out. LOL!

#164 Form Man on 10.20.11 at 3:54 pm

#160 Devil’s advocate

I am a builder/developer ( have been in the business for almost 30 years). While I agree developers have every right to take risks, I do not agree that the taxpayers should have to pick up the tab. Most Canadians do not realize that CMHC also insures ‘construction mortgages’. When developers go broke the loss is socialized. The multiplier effect of construction is real. Both in a rising market and a falling one. Ask the Kelowna car and furniture sales people how they are managing now that the construction industry is on the ropes. They are going broke my friend…..multiplied many times……..Developers do respond to demand; but when the demand is a result of mortgage brokers ‘ filling in fantasy numbers’ to get an application approved, or realtors colluding to scare first time buyers into bidding wars, I am troubled. Do we blame the developers or the ethically-challenged ‘industry professionals’

#165 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 3:59 pm

#163Form Man on 10.20.11 at 3:39 pm

You work in the development business yet you complain about too much development?!? I don’t get it. Are you perhaps upset that so much development has skewed the supply demand equation in town that you cannot compete? That I get, but really what’s to worry… if they build too much they will fail and you will survive because you foresee the inevitable… get it.

Mathematically challenged? If you are referring to your mistake in thinking I believe we should give more incentive to builders in your comment at #151, you are the idiot for believing that incentives are given to developers in the first place. If anything increased burdens are placed upon developers in terms of DCC costs, affordable housing quotients and other infrastructure demands prior to granting permits. Clearly you are not of the development industry or you would know better.

#166 poco on 10.20.11 at 4:00 pm

#172 DA–from yesterday……..

For three years this “pathetic blog” (Garths own words BTW) has predicted a price capitulation that has yet to materialize(1). I wonder if, as predominantly predicted here, it ever will – if at all.

and then [email protected]#137……..

The market is not going to ‘tank’. Most general markets have already incurred that 15% market correction Garth speaks of – a figure he has stated since the inception of this “pathetic blog” – and we are still doing just fine. I don’t see much more price capitulation ahead. What you are seeing in Toronto and Vancouver is the Urbanization of the population which as is taking place worldwide. For the first time in recorded history more people live in cities than rural. Of course it’s going to increase demand and prices.

Yes there are some sad stories and will be more. Do yourself a favour and learn from the mistakes of those others.

after trying to blow smoke up everyones ass for the last 18+ months that everything is fine and real estate has had no significant correction at all (real estate only goes up) you come out with that—i guess the jig is up –majority now understand that owning property in this environment is extremely dangerous

you keep on following “Sunny Yunny” (Lawrence Yun) as he is referred to in the US –his words of wisdom will get you through this mess

as for the 15% market correction, you are right on that point, but believe it—it’s only starting

sad real estate stories–hundreds in the tri cities alone–more to come –bet on it

learn from their mistakes—i certainly am–i’m not buying—yet

#167 Devore on 10.20.11 at 4:12 pm

#133 Van guy waiting

More to the point, reality has little to do with personal wishes or wants. It just is. You either accept it and work with it, if you can anticipate it you can prepare or even profit from it. Or, you can whine anonymously on other people’s blogs.

#168 Form Man on 10.20.11 at 4:15 pm

#166 Devil’s Advocate

In the last 20 years alone I have constructed over $150 million worth of developments, including ski hotels, high-rise condos, single family homes, warehouses, and strip malls ( mostly in southern British Columbia ). I am currently completing a $50 million single family housing development. I will state categorically that Kelowna is one of the most developer-friendly jurisdictions I have ever done business in. Given the vast over-development that has taken place in the Okanagan, I find it odd that you would try and claim otherwise. I am solidly in favour of free enterprise, but not without ethics, and not when profits are privatized and losses are socialized.

#169 Blacksheep on 10.20.11 at 4:33 pm

The thing in the basement # 123,

“77 Blacksheep – thanks for the reply. But I’m not sure that what you describe is actually allowing the bank to fail”

Thanks for your reply and link.

My thoughts are, the depositors are bailed by the FDIC @ 250K per person, per bank and then the chips fall were they may. This is legal contract.

If the bank goes bankrupt (closes), so be it. If shareholders of the bank take a hair cut, or a total loss, so be it. People must deal with the consequences of their investing behaviour.

This fear mongering must end.
Stop saving the irresponsible.

Like you point out, no FDIC back in the day so things are different now.

The good part of any business failing, is the opportunity created for some one wiser to pick up the pieces and service the old customers.

take care,

#170 Bill Gable on 10.20.11 at 4:34 pm

Smoking man – keep at it. One day at a time.

#171 jess on 10.20.11 at 4:49 pm


real estate derivatives.
These instruments allow investors to gain exposure to the real estate asset class without having to buy or sell properties by replacing the real property with the performance of a real estate return index. These derivatives are based on swaps, where one party swaps one exposure for another. In this way, investors can get exposures to either real estate equity or debt without ever buying a real estate asset or lending capital with real estate as the collateral.

Read more:

#172 Van guy waiting on 10.20.11 at 4:56 pm

Devore #168

U sound like a Realtard

#173 Smoking Man on 10.20.11 at 5:16 pm

Bill Gable. Snap of the fingers I stopped. Test will be the casino on friday night I tryed that lacota stuff for my back with aperin and tylonal. Last night was was ok still pain but could sleep with out the wine pain killer

#174 Timing is Everything on 10.20.11 at 5:16 pm

For #59 Dad and the rest…

#175 Devore on 10.20.11 at 5:46 pm

#173 Van guy waiting

Nice. And mature.

So I agree with you 110%, and I’m the “realtard”? What does that make you? Sheesh, no wonder Garth keeps referring to this as a pathetic blog.

#176 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 6:32 pm

#167poco on 10.20.11 at 4:00 pm

Garth has always stated a 15% price capitulation for the most part and up to 30% in especially bubbly locales. The posters on this ‘pathetic blog’ since it’s inception have far exaggerated those figures. That I agree with Garth on the 15% is nothing new. That has, in most generalized markets, already taken place. That I disagree with the posters on this blog that it will be well in excess of that is nothing new.

As for your last words; that you are “not buying – yet” is a clear indication to me that my comment that the markets are just fine is the case. There are many, many like you. Thing is; it is hard to time the bottom of the market and to try to do so is no less a speculative game than trying to time the peak. You are a gambler just like most everyone else who posts on this blog that prices are going to “tank”. But thank you for reaffirming my belief that there is a good pent up demand out there. ;-)

#169Form Man on 10.20.11 at 4:15 pm

LOL. Ya right.

#177 jess on 10.20.11 at 6:54 pm

174 Smoking Man

a friend of mine had success chewing on a licorice stick roots

#178 Van guy waiting on 10.20.11 at 6:57 pm


U don’t think RE will correct. How is that agreeing with me? This is bear country, go blog with the cowboys.

#179 Devil's Advocate on 10.20.11 at 6:59 pm

#169Form Man on 10.20.11 at 4:15 pm

If you were as you claim to be you would not have said what you did.

#180 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.20.11 at 7:02 pm

#141 disciple — “. . . the obvious question would be… by WHOM?”

Now that Soros (a Marx follower and Obomba’s bankroller, who also follows Marx) has managed to squirm his way in (maybe via the Tea Party, not sure on that), it seems that the tentacles of the elite are covering and manipulating all of what’s happening. Just a guess, ‘tho.

#152 GregW, Oakville — G’day Greg. Yep, seen them for a few months now. Whether or not they have any effect on sheeple remains to be seen, but enjoy the ride, ‘coz one way or another, it will be bumpy!
Helium-filled religious zealots Political bozos and banxters fall into the same category. BTW — Thought For The Day: “What this country needs are more unemployed politicians.” — Edward Langley, Artist 1928-1995 (

Is Gadaafi dead? That doesn’t matter.

What does matter is citizens don’t trust their govts. anymore, because they are nothing more than a bunch of lying, cheating yahoos. Citizens are prepared to stand up and fight tyranny.
Super Corporation running the world? Indeed. They are known as . . .; Student Debt Loans beyond the point of no return. With credit card, home and others spiraling out of control, all it takes is one incident to bring the whole deck of cards crashing down and maybe this is it — Bombshell is the one that kickstarts it; Ogeithner Fire the liars! Fewer jobs, less pay And the US expects a fiscal recovery with figures like these?

Various Clips which say (essentially) that paper money is worthless; 9:37 clip Banking is the greatest scam in history; Breaking Out or breaking down; Ironic The term Hallowe’en compared with the US debt level;

TSA Courtesy of dubya, who introduced the TSA, America is under someone else’s control; Skewed Numbers GC or GW, take your pick then ignore and Carbonazi Tax This is what’s happening to people in the UK, who can’t afford to pay heating bills anymore. Green taxes haveyet to be added on; British Propaganda They want to destabilize the region further; India – Pakistan “BULL BISCUITS! The US is going to attack Pakistan and the conflict is likely to go nuclear.”

#181 TurnerNation on 10.20.11 at 7:35 pm

I wonder if Garth now receives “random” tax audits from the Harper Govt’s. CCRA arm.

(But, can you really deduct Bandit’s food cost as a Bunker Defense expense??).

#182 Behavioral Finance on 10.20.11 at 7:44 pm

GregW, Oakville

Derivatives would only become a problem if all those contracts were in the money. In reality a lot of contracts will never be exercised as they will expire, so these figures of 600 trillion to 1.5 quadrillion are overblown.

#183 Calgary Car Guy on 10.20.11 at 7:52 pm


Dorothy that was a great post and I agree with every word you posted. However, wouldn’t you agree that a main reason for local BC people not being able to afford their local real estate is at least partially caused by the infamous “sunshine tax”? Generally speaking prices on goods in BC are higher than Alberta (even before tax) and yet the average person’s wage is lower (excepting Van.) GREED is the answer once again. Greed is behind so many of the worlds problems today.

To eaglebay-Parksville. No I’m not looking for a pissing match with anybody. I’m just frustrated with BC seemingly being hell-bent on discouraging travel to their beautiful province. Between high prices, insane taxes, excessively punitive laws and BPOE attitudes I really question if its worth going there. Like I said before the northwester US states are much more welcoming.
BTW are you a dealership controller in Parksville or Alberta? If Parksville that kind of explains Mr. Bodyshop’s freebie, no? LOL.

#184 thank you Garth on 10.20.11 at 7:55 pm

Garth you were the only true conservative . Haper and his other yes men/women are puppets of vested interests and you were the only one looking out for the people of Canada. Thank you garth.

#185 ballingsford on 10.20.11 at 7:57 pm

Keep on trucking Garth and happy anniversary! We need your sage advice now more than ever! It kept me from becoming a house poor home owner! I have no debt and I can do whatever I want even though I don’t need anything. Thinking about buying a new winter jacket but the old one will probably do for this winter. Only thing wrong with it is the zipper pull up tag thingy is broken but I can zip it up nonetheless.

That coat keeps me warm in minus 40 weather and is about 6 years old. I keep forgetting if I need a new coat or if I want a new coat. I think I want a new North Face coat to replace my Columbia coat. About $100 difference.

Cripes, it’s hard to make choice when I don’t have to worry about debt because I’m a renter. Maybe I should buy a place and worry about buying a $200 coat,

#186 March of the Pigs on 10.20.11 at 7:58 pm

The media keeps saying the occupy movement doesn’t have a clear message. Here it is in an easy tv sound bite: Perp walk on Wall Street. That’s what people want, we used to have public executions at least we’ve evolved beyond that. Now we just need to see people retired in a cage.

#187 jess on 10.20.11 at 7:59 pm

So much for the Self Correcting
Despite the fraud they get rehired Pass-through schemes?

US Military Paid $1.1 Trillion to Contractors That Defrauded the Government
Thursday 20 October 2011
by: Mike Ludwig, Truthout | Report
The Pentagon has paid $1.1 trillion to hundreds of defense contractors and their parent companies that have defrauded the government over the past ten years, according to a Department of Defense report released Thursday

Table 1A ‐ Criminal Convictions

#188 nothing selling on 10.20.11 at 8:06 pm

There are eight houses for sale and nothing has sold except one house who priced the home for $80000 below the others and sold for a final price of 20000 below asking. the rest have been sitting on the market for months. the realtors have removed the listings and then relisted it after one week to make it seem they are new listings when in fact they have been sitting for months.

#189 maxx on 10.20.11 at 8:55 pm

Cher Garth-
A bit late in the day, but bravo! Your sharp wit is exceeded only by your gigantic heart. Wish you were leading the country- so many more would be so much happier and the fear factor wouldn’t be so pervasive.

#190 DGM on 10.20.11 at 9:02 pm

Garth, I have followed your printed word,your books,your political days,your blog from the Hill,and now this blog.
You are doing and have done a great service..keep on trucking man..

#191 vatoDETH on 10.20.11 at 9:24 pm

#122 eaglebay – Parksville

“Been looking all over the place to find a new jail or a new jail being built by the Canadian Government.
Cannot find any. Can somebody help?
Facts not fiction.”

Well eagleboy , it’s not about the current situation, but what is coming ahead. The new laws are a bad idea according to tough on crime Texas, which used to have 1 in 20 citizens in jail.

Tory policy doesn’t impress in Texas

And there have been a few pilot projects of private prisons conducted in Canada. They were failures.

Stephen Harper opens door to prison privatization

There are your facts, not fiction. You can come to your own conclusions of course. I have come to mine.

#192 Al on 10.20.11 at 10:05 pm

Ever since Harper got his majority, he has done done nothing useful at all. Looks like he gone to sleep!

#193 Lawn (South) Asian on 10.20.11 at 11:04 pm

Harper is an idiot. He was a fool to actually expel the only sane members of his caucus… The one’s who weren’t religious loons, homophobes, sexists, or simply haters of another some other variety.

I’m sure you don’t lament your move at all. Congrats! You won’t go down with the sinking ship (or shoulder any of the blame)!

#194 Steven Rowlandson on 10.21.11 at 6:49 am

Months ago I said the age of the house is over. Gone is the time when simply paying off a mortgage was all the financial strategy you required. Real estate’s now a dangerous asset, which will not be evident to Canadians, or their members of Parliament, until it’s too late to react.

On this Garth you are absolutely correct!
Then again Canadians need a massive whack in the head and pocket book to wake them up and make them face reality.

#195 Hoof-Hearted on 10.21.11 at 1:14 pm


Yep..still recall all that sordid politics, but knew that the nail that refuses to be hammered down is almost always on the right side.

Much appreciated

#196 Abitibi Doug on 10.21.11 at 4:56 pm

@Thank you Garth, post #185:
I would have to agree with that post. It’s a sad state of affairs when someone who actually believes in and practices democracy gets fired for not being a yes man. For the record don’t blame me, I didn’t vote for the Conservatives.