He’s a lawyer. She’s a manager. His mom’s a doctor. The family has breeding and expectations, not to mention wealth and upward mobility. Just the kind of people who could live anywhere, and do it well. Make the locals inadequate. But not Vancouver.
Some months ago he was offered a job at a prestigious BC law firm with the usual perqs, Big cheques. Moving costs. Status office. West Georgia ain’t Bay Street, but there was the appeal of a city which fashions itself green, progressive, sporty and insufferably self-centred. Besides, you can drive the Carrera all year. Sweet.
But it took just one weekend of house-hunting on the west side, in West Van, even North Van and down to White Rock to send the ambitious thirtysomethings fleeing back to godless Toronto. “They are,” he told me, “nuts. What possible benefit is there changing jobs and doubling my salary when I have to pay triple for a lesser house?” Left unsaid: If I’m going to move to a regional city with no subway and no prestige at least I expect to live better, not worse.
This is how a bubble can eat a city.
Now meet Mike.
Hi Garth: Regular reader and we are on the same page re: real estate and investing. I have written before but our situation is this: I am 58, she is 50, debt free, both working, conservative and diversified investments. Our humble 1 bdrm condo was purchased for 149k in Dec./96 and paid off years ago. Anyway, things are definitely slowing down here. Our building is one of the best in Kitsilano: concrete, well maintained, no leaks, tennis court, outdoor pool, gym. Units usually sell very quickly but not now. A one bedroom has been on the market for a month. Original asking price was 400k, now lowered to 359K and still no takers. Yet, the skyline is full of cranes as new condo buildings continue to be built on a massive scale. Who is going to buy them? In fact, as you have pointed out, prospective buyers (younger people) are up and leaving the city. Love your blog and many thanks. Michael.
As a rare insightful story in the Vancouver Sun pointed out this week, the same real estate which has Lower Mainland Boomers kissing their dirt is bankrupting their kids. In the last three decades household incomes for young couples have dropped by 6%, despite a steadily rising economy and a forty per cent surge in working women. But at the same time, real estate prices have shot up 150% (and 300% in Vancouver). A house used to cost three times your income. Now, if you’re insane enough to buy one in the city, it takes 11 annual incomes.
Said the author of a report on this economic vice: “BC is now the hardest province in which to raise a family.” And that’s precisely why net migration to that part of the country has turned negative, and why the pace of the outflow will continue. It’s what happens when real estate greed is infused into an entire local society, where people are measured by where they live, and where even government encourages numbing speculation.
But let’s not rag only on Vancouver.
Real estate delusion’s alive and well in Toronto, as well. In fact, these two cities are the main reason why a shocking 20% of Canada’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) is now made up of housing sector activity. That, by the way, parallels the experience of California before its bubble burst. That state, which has a bigger GDP than Canada’s, is now considered the world’s most affluent failed state, unable to pay all its employees or bondholders.
This is how a bubble can eat an economy.
Remember I told you a few weeks ago that we’ve been building more homes for that past ten years than we can absorb? About 40% more than the formation of new households, in fact. That compares with the 29% excess which ultimately brought down the American housing market.
Nothing now exemplifies that more than the forest of condo towers stretching from the north shore of Lake Ontario to the nether regions of suburbia. And a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch says this overbuilding will lead to a price correction of 15%.
Meh. Where have we heard that before?
Bank economist Ryan Bohren underscores this pathetic blog’s research: housing starts of 206,000 (September’s annualized number) far outstrip the natural formation rate of new households, which is just 150,000 to 175,000 a year. And it’s stunning how much of this excess has erupted in a single market.
There are 18,000 new condo units appearing on the Toronto scene this year alone, and another 38,000 in various stages of planning and construction. That’s enough to satisfy demand for almost five years, and yet the development orgy continues. Says Bohren: “Even if we assume 50% of Toronto’s household formation is now destined for condo purchase or rental that is still over 3 years of inventories. As these units are completed the market will likely have an increasingly hard time absorbing them, leading to higher vacancies and downward pressure on prices.”
By the way, as prices fall, so do rents. It’s estimated that somewhere between 80% and all of the new units coming to market are being bought by amateur speckers, convinced they can flip them for a cool buck. But as the city saturates and cools, many will turn into reluctant landlords – happy to find a tenant at any price who will help defray staggering property tax and condo fees which in many buildings now equal the market rent.
This is how a bubble eats speculators.
Now, I love real estate. I’m a junkie. Did my last deal on Friday.
But this will not end well.
192 comments ↓
2nd? :)
1st
( ” In the last three decades household incomes for young couples have dropped by 6%, despite a steadily rising economy and a forty per cent surge in working women. ” )
Yes, and the woman in your life will alway blame YOU, she will call you a “LOSER” for this fact in life. So she leaves you for someone else in hopes he is better, but he’s in the same shape so she soon leaves him too and cries to her girlfriends that “THERE ARE NO GOOD MEN LEFT ANYMORE.”
Vancouver is a regional city?? Only a person from godless toronto would make that claim.
Anyway, I still get up everyday looking for this great corporate resurgence only to find more disappointment. Corporate bellweather Apple missed earnings even after selling a billion ipads and iphones. Goldman Sachs who invented stock market manipulations lost money too, Lowes…the list goes on. There is no resurgence, this is a double dip to flatline. U.S. consumer will not save the day because they are insolvent like their country.
More companies are making money, actually. Apple profits increased from over $4 billion to more than $6 billion. Some investors wanted more. And, yes, it is a regional city. — Garth
Downunder we this pernicious thing called a Self-Managed Superannuation Fund.
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/pfproperty/buying/8362196/tips-for-borrowing-through-your-diy-super-for-property-investment
Not hard to see the consequences of this coming down the line….
Oh man I am so excited for the flood of rentals (hopefully soon), nothing would be sweeter than to pay even less in rent. Ha!
Re: Garth “Did my last deal on Friday”
Did you just add some doors to your collection? :)
Geez, Waterloo Resident, get a grip. You’re embarrassing yourself.
From one local Vancouverite to others,
I left Vancouver about 15 years ago after growing up & being educated there. Vancouver is THE most beautiful city in the world – when it’s sunny. Unfortunately, those days are few. I don’t want to put down my hometown but wake up people – those real estate prices are just stupid. Created more by poor government policy than anything. Greed combined with short term thinking to make present careers look good. It’s good to see that people are waking up and realizing it’s just not worth it. Being house poor in a rainy city with a bogus transit system. Most livable city – my derriere! The good news is that there are great alternatives in terms of where to live. In the short term there’s adjustment but l have no desire to move back to grey wet days. The thought of living in Vancouver actually depresses me. If you live in Vancouver, seek God: it’s possible to be salt and light in the darkest of places. Your only other option is to wallow in a dark, damp, grey, downward spiral of negativity and depression while you wait for the next sunny day.
If I’m going to move to a regional city with no subway and no prestige at least I expect to live better, not worse.
Paris and London don’t have a “subway” either. What you call it is not important. Vancouver has a better rapid transit system than Toronto, a CMA almost three times larger (of course Toronto’s public transit system is abysmal in the extreme, so that is not necessarily saying much).
Met a kid trying to rent out a 2 bedroom 900 sq foot condo in the east end of the GTA for $200 less than comparables list for rent on MLS. No takers. I jokingly said if its still for rent in a year, when I plan to upgrade to a rental condo (once I sell the family home and am debt free and diversified) from the apt I’m living in I’d be interested, he responded that he wouldn’t be surprised if it was still not rented. Looks like I’ll be just in time to have my pick of rental condos being flogged by these amateur speckers..
#2 TurnerNation on 10.18.11 at 9:09 pm 2nd?
Geez I’ve had it up to here with all the “Second” nonsense lately. This is a serious financial weblog!!! And, anyway, only First counts. ;-)
And Paris?! No subway? Wtf do you call the extensive Metro underground train public transit system.
You pumpers are so freajin full of….well I don’t know
what you are full of…. but I know it is peurile and a by product of avarice ;-)
Dampcouver is a provincial backwater. Canada has few if any world class cities, TO barely qualifies, Montreal is, Quebec City is. My hometown, Winnipeg, is Dampcouver without mountains, it has nicer houses in the nicer parts, has a real summer and real winter, but it is a provincial backwater just like Dampcouver.
Waterloo Resident on 10.18.11 at 9:08
——-
If you still don’t understand what happened, time for a little introspection. Start with this:
pmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karpman_drama_triangle
Paris and London don’t have a “subway” either
——
Watchyatalkinabout?
Paris: Métropolitain
London: Underground or the Tube
Oh sorry… you probably meant Paris, Ontario and London, Ontario.
I have lived and worked in 8 provinces. Currently in Vancouver. The transit system here is perfect, as long as you only need to move between four areas. If you have to get from 12th and King Ed to UBC you’re in for a treat.
Transit aside, there is really no comparing Vancouver to London or Paris. You really should visit.
Fewer pictures have been truer than the one son.
Garth
Sounds like you are buying RE. Can you share with us the strategy of buying right now?
Thanks
I have. Buy where the correction is already happening. — Garth
Garth why’d you go and change the pic like that.
Punishment. — Garth
Garth,
Do you have metrics (you may have developed) that help you decide when the correction is at the right level to execute a purchase? Or is it more a gut feeling?
Divine intervention. And moaning. — Garth
Ok ,me the RE bear again. Here is the other side of the coin.
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Toronto+condo+boom+about+bust/5567058/story.html?cid=megadrop_story
Go ahead, attack it.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/strong-canadian-economy-attracting-americans-2011-10-18?pagenumber=2
Sorry meant this page. Ignore last my last post.
I am an RE Bear so please feel free to attack this.
That new picture took balls.
Real estate delusion’s alive and well in Toronto, as well. In fact, these two cities are the main reason why a shocking 20% of Canada’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) is now made up of housing sector activity
——————————————————————
It’s complete madness Garth. People of Toronto and vancouver have lost their collective minds. I still can’t forget going to homedepot in the summer only to seen countless “homebuilders/renovators ” at 6:30 in the morning. That’s when it hit me how much of the economy was RE. Driving around Toronto all you see is homebuilders/renovators working. that is 1/5th of the economy….. C R A Z Y. Canada will be hit with a depression when housing bubble fails. You will have 15-20% unemployment. It’s going to happen only the longer thegame goes the bigger the problem later. The endgame is here and the thousands of condo’s yet to be built and the thousands of rentals that can not be rented spells trouble. Is it any wonder why realtors are worried and spending big $$$$ in the media to lie?
I left Vancouver 10 years ago – I was born and bred there. There is so much wrong with that city, I could make a list from there to Montreal. Let’s just say that the people are
DELETED
But I must say that I echo the spirit of the image.
In reverse of course.
Realtor bigrider you sound so foolish and clueless. Why would Americans who got smoked in the US housing bubble come to Canada which they even know is in a housing bubble? You are getting worried and it shows .
Garth, how did you keep your name off of the ‘richest 100’ list in the recent October issue of Canadian Business.
Dog gone it, all that RE you own and are currently buying didn’t qualify you? Hard to believe.
#18 eyeshurt………….
I have lived and worked in 8 provinces. Currently in Vancouver. The transit system here is perfect, as long as you only need to move between four areas. If you have to get from 12th and King Ed to UBC you’re in for a treat.
Transit aside, there is really no comparing Vancouver to London or Paris. You really should visit.
____________________________________________
pretty hard to do as they both run east/west and are 13 blocks apart
Does anyone know why Red Deer is more expensive than Calgary?
This is Red Deer – luxurious house backing on a pond.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11160014&PidKey=1306387185
This is Calgary backing on a lake.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11062561&PidKey=255566861
Evening Garth and fellow Blog Dogs (and lurkers too)…
I’ve been out of touch with the markets as of late but I heard there was a considerable drop in the NYSE yesterday. It makes me wonder whether or not the New Year will bring a rise in fortunes and earnings for those listed on the TSX and elsewhere. Certainly, many will be watching the markets and the economies of some nations with greater interest.
I want to switch gears a little here and steer a different course from the one that has the genders pitted against one another on the respective evils that each one inflicts upon the other during rocky and difficult separations and divorces. This is not to belittle those who have shared their opinions or experiences, nor is to minimize some of the pain and the stress felt by those who have been dealt with in a shameless fashion. I just wonder if further speculation on the side has the harder deal and the greater degree of culpability for dishonest or unethical conduct will do much more to change what I believe to be some pretty deeply ingrained and firmly held convictions. Speaking of convictions then, and on another note, (wasn’t that a smooth, clever transition), I watched with some interest last night a News story about Texas, one of the tougher US states on crime (don’t they impose the death penalty for parking tickets or something…) and how they have changed the way that they are dealing with their offenders.
Expanded Drug Courts are replacing lengthy jail terms with court imposed substance abuse programs and saving a considerable amount of money in the process. In fact they have pointed to a 13% drop in crime in the wake of changing their approach from “get tough” to “get proactive”. These reductions in rates of crime and recidivism are nearly consistent with the reductions that are realized when Motivational Interviewing and Relapse Prevention strategies are encouraged. Curiously though, right after that was an expose on the new Conservative “get tough” on crime bill which lengthens sentences for crimes and imposes more punitive sanctions on offenders. I suppose it makes the Canadian population feel safer and better when criminal behaviour is responded to with greater severity. Truth is, unless there is some change in the way the inmate thinks; unless he can change his thoughts about what does and doesn’t constitute anti-social and pro-social attitudes and behaviour, there won’t be a significant reduction in crime. In Canada today crime is down anyway (although violent crimes might be up…not sure). Don’t get me wrong here please because I still believe that people who come into conflict with the law should be held accountable. What I am suggesting rather is that “getting tough on crime” does little more than incarcerate greater numbers of people without looking more closely at the factors and belief systems that motivate people to behave in the ways that they do in order to try and change those criminogenic thoughts that result in criminal behaviour. If we are concerned about the safety of society, it would seem that trying to change how an offender thinks will do more than spending additional billons to hit them with heavier sanctions.
The Texas reduction in recidivism is worthy of a closer look and ought to examined more closely by the Conservative Harper Government prior to the third reading and Proclamation of the new crime bill into law. It could save the Canadian taxpayer (whose interests they claim to best represent) millions, perhaps billions of dollars, reduce recidivism further here in Canada and prevent the kind of financial bankruptcy that forced California to release 40,000 prisoners earlier this year. Their tough approach on crime created a Correctional Department within the state that literally bankrupted it and precipitated a crisis that crippled its ability to meet its payments.
To quote an oft repeated phrase, however…it’s different here!!!
the Phantom
Bay St. is crawling with extra security in the buildings and cops on bikes. Media vans are camped out at Bay/King Sts. each daily hoping to catch some action. There is none.
One large complex closed & locked their push/pull doors leaving open only the revolving doors. They figure a crowd cannot easily pour in through heavy revolving doors!
#26, exactly. But good thing Canada’s major banks can take all their CMHC-insured loans to the CMHC and get paid 100 cents on the dollar when they default. Bank owners will have the last laugh here when they are able to scoop all the deflated RE up for 25 cents on the present dollar.
You think it is bad in Toronto, check out False Creek, near Olympic ^$%$-up. They haven’t sold these units and many have been on the market for over a year, yet cranes work through the day on many hi rises 1-2 blocks away? Who is going to buy all of these units? Who would want to live there, being hemmed in like sardines, hearing the noise of the Cambie Bridge for 18 hours a day.
So if housing has increased by 300 percent in Vancouver, even with a substantial correction, most who bought 7 years ago or more will still be way ahead. It will take a Stockton style meltdown to put these people under water, and Vancouver ain’t Stockton
I went to UBC in the 1980’s. Worked most of the 90’s in Vancouver and left it a decade ago. Didn’t like or dislike the city. Except for the winters that were without color. Grey rainy days. The nice thing about living in Vancouver was leaving Vancouver on the weekends to enjoy the outdoors. Vancouver itself is a hole, its whats around it that makes it nice. Would never move back there again. A city where you’re underpaid, housing is overpriced and the traffic sucks.
Re #15
If you think Vancouver is a backwater and you live in Winnepeg then you are either clueless or just trying to get a reaction. Winnepeg weather sucks, it has a huge Native gang problem, it is in the middle of nowhere, and has had a declining population for over 30 years. Wake up and look around you…
Hey Waterloo resident: You no wuss man: Painful Honesty takes Balls. Been there 2x. cheers.
Debt Surrounding Olympic Village
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Debt+surrounding+Vancouver+Olympic+Village+still+unknown/5570224/story.html
Sill over 300 units to sell…
Could wind up costing taxpayers 100 million
Thanks City Council for your collossal screw up and not even having the decency to admit how badly you mismanaged this whole project
The reporter in the pic looks like Tina Fey.
If you sell your one house to go rent somewhere doesn’t that make you an amateur specker ?
It’s not like financial products where you can win ,lose be an idiot or hero 50 times your first week trading online with multiple buy and sells.
How many homes have you who think you are non
speckers actually sold ? 1?,2? . Well that’s a ton of experience on this blog!
#11 your a rent specker .
Not 1st et al.
You losers illustrate why Crapcouver is a backwater, wet, jobless, soul-less pile of modern mortar and brick on the cold edge of a northern nobody. As if London, Paris, Tokyo, New York, or LA has to try an primp themselves “The Best Place on Earth”; such arrogance is a cover for lack of city self-esteem (same lack of SE applies to the anit-American sentiment in Canada). Vancouver has one nice day a year; write it on your calendar (which takes up half the wall in the little hole you call home). Try living outside the box, if they let you out some day.
How do you have the time to write this fine Blog, write books, and do all this wheeling and dealing, Garth? Oh wait, Friday is a ghost-writer day. Oh well today’s post was great. Do we start back into bonds tomorrow?
I’ve never been on the tube in London but I’ve been on the Subway in Montreal. It’s pretty good. And the gentlemen’s clubs are fantastic. I wonder why a house doesn’t cost $1,000,000 there? Maybe it’s because you can’t grow weed on crown land everywhere you turn?
I still like my theory that BC = pot = money laundering through the housing market. It’ll take a pretty big slowdown before the “market” for that “natural resource” will slow down, but it will.
Aussie Update
HOUSEHOLDS are increasingly reining in credit card debt but remain concerned about a lack of savings, the size of their bills and the lack of investments outside the home.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/households-focused-on-debt-bill-worries/story-e6frg926-1226170091223
THE International Monetary Fund has warned that the forces that caused the Great Depression in the 1930s are again at work, as households, businesses and governments all cut back their spending.
In a briefing provided to finance ministers and central bank governors at last weekend’s G20 meeting, the fund said the Australian government should stand ready to abandon its pledge to return the budget to surplus if the world economy took a turn for the worse.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/severe-risks-in-culture-of-thrift-imf-warning/story-e6frg6so-1226170147423
Remember the Aussie house porn disaster “The Block”?.
THE buyers of the Melbourne homes featured on Channel Nine’s hit TV series The Block face falling property values and traffic chaos after the Coles supermarket group revealed plans for a $250 million, 333-dwelling apartment complex next door.
http://smh.domain.com.au/the-block-hammered-by-coles-proposal-20111018-1lyqo.html
Hey Garth:
I have read your column many times. I must ask, how do you find all of these morons to write about. I keep hearing about the overly rich daddy’s little boy who cannot figure out what to wear on his head. A hat or his butt. Is this the reason for Canada’d Brain Drain? They say that Parliament views the world through Rose colored glasses. I suggest that Parliament views the world through its middle intestine with its head up its butt..
Moneta
That Karpman link was awesome. No motive in writing this. Unless…
Bank of america expects 15% drop in toronto condo prices – headline on bnn
Anyone else see that today?
Did you read the post? — Garth
So you have completed another RE investment last Friday.
In that case, I want to know where you stand given the following:
Millions of those who have nothing but their primary residence, what are you advising them? Sell because RE will deflate (perhaps collapse) in the coming years?
Nassim Taleb is back and swinging for the fence again:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nassim-taleb-occupywallstreet-and-his-updated-views-global-banking-system
This guy thinks too much. He is definitely one of the best minds around when it comes to understanding the nature of risk and it’s roll in everyday life, including the big events. I definitely recommend reading “The Black Swan”. It’s not as practical as “Money Road”, but if one part of the diversified GarthPlan ™ ever falls apart it may help you understand why these things can happen. (Short answer: Because we don’t think they can happen, so we don’t think about the consequences or weaknesses in the system. Just click your heels together and say “There’s no place like Fukushima” three times and you’ll see what I mean when you get there. Disclaimer: You need to get the witch’s shoes first.)
I have a fair amount of experience in risk management, and can tell you from first hand experience the “asymmetry” of risk that Taleb talks about for banks as a whole also applies to traders who get “a percentage of book”. The whole reason companies need a “middle office” is because these traders will do everything in their power to cover up losses and exaggerate gains, and get their big big bonuses. I’ve worked at 3 companies that all had a least one book go from paying big bonuses to being total loosers, and at one of them fraud was involved. (In the other 2 the traders manipulated the system with complicated deals that couldn’t be marked to market properly by the system and were well gone by the time they were discovered.) In general, if you have a trading floor, your company is being defrauded.
The asymmetry is easiest to understand at the individual trader level. You take a hot shot just out of university and give him a trading book, but it’s “results based compensation”. So what that means is if he trades for a profit, he gets a percentage of the “profit”. Let’s say he’s a junior trader so he gets 5% of his book. But if he makes $10,000,000, you do the math on his bonus that year. If he has a few good years, he will get a higher risk limit and in some cases up to 30% of the book. It’s multiples of his base salary, and a run of a few good years can put you in the “ultra-rich” category, like Brian Hunter did it.
Here is the downside: If he “blows up” his book, the company takes the entire loss, and the worst case for the trader is he tries to get a different gig before management and HR packages him out. The trader suffers no financial loss. Trust me, it takes management the better part of a year to accept they have a big loss on their hands, and that process can’t even start until the mid office has done all the forensics. And trust me, if there is a loss, accurate “trade entry” and “marking” becomes problematic. Often you are paying out cash left right and center and accounting is showing a loss for months before anyone in the front office will admit a problem and the mid-office has been able to prove things beyond a shadow of a doubt. And then there is the whole process of getting an audience with management once the problem is proven.
So the asymmetry of risk for traders is this: unlimited upside if they win big, no personal downside if they loose.
As Taleb points out in this video, banks around the world are now in the enviable position of traders, with unlimited trading upside and the public providing taking any loss. Banks don’t even have to mark most of their assets to market, so the mid-office role of valuing the book is impossible. No trader could dream of a better place: If you make a trade and loose money, carry it on the books at cost using a term like “maturity”. If you make a trade and make money, immediately mark the whole think to market and demand a big bonus.
Yuck. Maybe I will take my money out.
So Garth, I think you are wrong about how it ends. Not how real estate in Canada ends, but how “it” ends. Eventually, as we see in Europe, the banks will need bailouts so big that the government cannot do it. What happens then is anybody’s guess, but it won’t be pretty. It’ll be a good thing in the end, but there will be a few days of complete uncertainty.
Hmm – 399,000 was overpriced for this 670 sq ft condo. Also – assessed value only $348,000 -a as was the appraised value when the owner did some transaction in July. Recent sales have been 9-15% over assessed value putting the equivalent on this 2nd floor unit at $380-399K – about what was asked in July – So – the market has fallen for sure and this seller will set the new market for the building with their transaction. That’s how markets start to fall!!!!
“By the way, as prices fall, so do rents” – Garth
If the prices fall as a result of overbuilding, then yes as
you explain further. But if the RE market is just doing
a “correction” due to an overshoot, then I would say that
it’s not necessarily so, as it depends more on the
availability of rental units. Though my locale has seen slight softening in purchase prices over the last three
years, I dont know of anybody getting cheaper rent, actually there seems to be slow steady increases.
–
“He’s a lawyer. She’s a manager. His mom’s a doctor. Sweet.” — Great Expectations, no less. Expecting it is one thing, having it is quite different.
“This is how a bubble can eat a city. This is how a bubble can eat an economy. This is how a bubble eats speculators.” — So we’re eaten, eh?! The gorge fest was good, but the party’s almost over now.
“But let’s not rag only on Vancouver. Meh. Where have we heard that before?” — Mikey the Realtor or BPOE?
*
#1 and #4 Waterloo Resident — “THERE ARE NO GOOD MEN LEFT ANYMORE.”
After close to 3 1/2 decades of one girlfriend / partner, I learned a long time ago that whatever she says goes in one ear and comes straight out the other (unless it makes sense).
Makes it a lot more fun when she blows her top, and I respond with “Yes dear, no dear, three bags full dear!”, then walk away.
Sometimes men do show restraint and a little class, so Maybe this is better!
“London has no subway? — Garth” — It’s called the Underground or Tube, and is a massive system. The Jubilee Line runs from central London to Heathrow Airport.
Ask the homeless in Paris where they sleep. Most have learned to avoid the third rail. There is a small city living there.
*
Inflation in Blighty 20 year high; Coup by the US Fed and BoA; Inflation “When you have too much cash chasing too few goods and services, inflation results, as prices will always rise to use up the available cash. The cause of inflation is the Federal reserve’s out-of-control money creation, not the producers.” wrh.com; Student Lending Bubble exceeds all credit cards, but do they learn anything; Gold and lots of it.
‘Quake-O-Nomics The gods must be crazy or we’re deep in doo-doo; Dazed and Confused Not the Led Zeppelin version; Peanut Butter Lovers Time to stock up? Cycle Change can also be referred as a Paradigm Shift.
Big Balls A perfect (human) pic of hyperinflation; Elephant vs. Croc. Short clip; Surveillance The FBI, CSIS etc. are probably all up to the same thing; US forces massing on Af’stan – Pakistan border, and is it close to Iran? Education Only 35% of college entrants actually use a degree; REX 84, “For many years the globalists, through the federal agencies they control, have treasonously planned to use devastating orchestrated events to suspend constitutional rights and implement martial law. The best-known plan for martial law/continuity of government is called REX 84…”; Bill O’Reilly Most know there is no difference between a piece of used toilet paper and O’Reilly. If his bite is as bad as his bark, give him a rifle, sign him up and drop him into Baghdad. He serves no useful purpose here; Brzezinski Time to control the elite? He IS part of the elite! Hmmm. “Unlike robots, people can still be made by unskilled labour!”
Growing Trend A link last year said the same thing was happening in the UK — thieves were raiding veggie gardens and fruit trees, just to eat; Pakistan and India Not going to fight each other, but the US. If it’s close to Iran, US troops will be there; Obumbler First one thousand days; Harper does have a point. Hell exists, and he runs it; Solid Evidence Soros and Obummer are socialists, so this must be right.
#4 Not 1st
On the world stage, to which Vancouver aspires itself, it is a backwater provincial city. A town, actually.
More and more people are figuring out that Vancouver is a “no-go” city. People who would consider moving there for professional reasons would now not touch it with a ten foot pole (even though rent is cheap). They wonder why I’m still here when I can’t afford to buy a house. I just smile and nod, uh huh, don’t tell them that I don’t think this thing about high housing prices is permanent. Because it’s not.
#7 @LH Did you just add some doors to your collection? :)
Yes, i’m also curious. USA?
“If you have to get from 12th and King Ed to UBC you’re in for a treat.”
Ya, but mostly because those streets are parallel and never cross…
#10 Robert Dudek on 10.18.11 at 9:39 pm
Paris and London don’t have a “subway” either. What you call it is not important
FOOL…..YES THEY DO! Paris has the Metro almost 100 years old, one of the most extensive on planet earth. Also Montreal copied this system. London also has one it’s called “The Tube”, been around for many years. Maybe you should travel a bit more MORON!
very interesting – this is a blog about RE armagedon, and yet you are buying where the correction is already happening?
I would like to be a fly on the wall to see how that works.
A g’friend, celebrating her 68th today, sent me the following joke today. :-)
……………..
Bad news for you
To save the economy, on October 30, 2011, Harper will announce that he is ordering the immigration department to start deporting
old people (instead of illegals) in order to lower Pension and Medicare costs.
Old people are easier to catch, and will not remember how to get back home!
I started crying when I thought of you.
__________________________________________
…..see you on the bus.
Robert Dudek is right on the transit thing. Ever taken the subway to the Pearson Airport? Quite a walk from that last station.
The rest of the article is dead on.
Meanwhile, in Victoria, listings are rising, sales are flat, prices dropping but the crazy people next door still want their 1.89 m for a 2 bedroom, 2400 sqare foot cottage which has an ocean view now but will lose it when the guy below them sells his teardown bung and the new guys go two floors.
Nuts.
love the sign and the movement…let’s hope this movement picks up speed.
finally people are fed up enough to start fighting..
Garth:
Why would you buy RE now? In the correction areas, how much correction is there? Examples please.
“What possible benefit is there changing jobs and doubling my salary when I have to pay triple for a lesser house?”
The idiot who emited the above “thought” sample may be a lawyer, but he still has half a brain. He can rent an apartment or a house in Vancouver for a similar price to one in Toronto or anywhere else in Canada. But he’s probably obsessed with buying.
“BC is now the hardest province in which to raise a family.”
Again, only if you’re and idiot obsessed with owning property. You can rent and raise a family perfectly, as I have been doing for years and will continue doing. It doesn’t hurt me at all investing all the surplus and having piece of mind and freedom.
“Besides, you can drive the Carrera all year. Sweet.”
I have to bust the myth that it doesn’t snow in Vancouver, or that the place is even livable for that matter. It’s not only hell on earth for good cars due to the incessant dampness in the air that is actually the salty ocean hovering over land all day and night rusting out beautiful motorcycles and classic cars, but it snows every winter in both Victoria and Vancouver. (and it’s usually significant).
Oh, wait, on top of that, it’s just above zero degrees (that’s 32 to Americans) for months, and goes, egad!, below zero too. Try 2, or even 5 with that ocean air. Toronto at 20 below feels better on the bones. Oh my, and did I forget to say that it rains INCESSANTLY ALL WINTER on top of those ice cold temperatures?
Yes, once again I’m sick of the BS about BC. What good is a gorgeous Porsche in hell?
#10 Dudek
People aren’t getting your first point … you clearly KNOW that there are equivalents to a “subway” in Paris/London but they just aren’t known by that name. Same with, presumably, the sky-train in Vancouver … sure it’s not a “subway” but hey, same difference.
So, sarcasm noted.
But speaking as a woman who has lived in both Toronto and Vancouver, and who travels by public transit, I frankly said “What?!” out loud when I read your claim that Toronto rapid transit is worse than Vancouver’s. I cannot possibly fathom how you could come to that conclusion; even with the new Canada Line (which I love), Vancouver’s transit system is woefully inferior.
This missive courtesy of Mr. H. Smith, the presentient economic writer on the Great Recession of 2012.
Insert the term ‘Canadian’ for ‘American’ in the next 12 months, and you arrive at the same miserable place, economic limbo where your real estate fates await you.
None of it ends well.
“The typical American household is insolvent: its debts exceed its assets.
There is nothing fancy about calculating insolvency: if debts exceed assets, the enterprise is insolvent.
By this measure, most American households are insolvent, if their real assets are marked to actual market.
For example:
Auto loan balance: $9,000
Actual market value of auto: $6,000
Credit card balance: $6,000
Street value of stuff purchased with credit card: $300
Home mortgage: $250,000
Auction value of house: $200,000
Student loans: $60,000
Market value of education: Not applicable, as it cannot auctioned off or securitized
And so on.
The typical American household is thus in service to its debt, not to its assets, and to the holders of that debt. This is debt-serfdom: serfdom in service to the owners of debt.”
Were toast … without the benefit of any butter.
I am in a predicament here. Sold my place and renting but have been looking. Have been putting some low ball offers on homes and noticed they are coming back a great deal lower than asking. Had one home in Etobicoke which was asking 620K I came in at 520K. They came back at 540K. I backed out. Now I have a place thats 540K and I am down to 440K They need to sell as they bought a place. They came back at 475K. Should I bite. Help as is this a trend now or is it just a end of fall season thats getting me some good deals.
Aussie Update
Treasurer Wayne Swan has told the ABC he doesn’t agree with the IMF report indicating Australia’s house prices are overvalued by 10 to 15 percent.
Roy says, “try 40-50% over priced”.
“I don’t share its assessment in terms of housing. There is a shortage of housing in Australia. A structural shortage of housing,” he said.
Despite the comments from the Treasurer, data from SQM research released last week showed there are now 362,793 houses listed for sale Australia wide, representing an increase of 24.3 percent when compared to the same period last year.
Melbourne has the biggest change, with 65.3 percent more listings compared to a year ago. SQM Research’s Louis Christopher says ”It represents what I now regard as a massive oversupply situation for the city and I believe it will translate to further house price falls from here,”
Watch the video, this is how you know, it’s ending.
http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/?p=1780
USA
It used to be a coup to receive the house as part of a divorce settlement. That was back when the market was robust. These days, pity the ex-spouse who gets the depreciating manse as part of the deal.
Instead of staying comfy and cozy in her own home, keeping the kids in familiar surroundings until they grow up or she’s ready to move on, the spouse who gets the house is strapped with “an albatross” that is sinking in value.
Meanwhile, she can’t afford to maintain a house alone that took two incomes to keep up. And, in a dour market, she may not be able to sell.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcellefischler/2011/10/12/house-regret-among-divorcing-couples-the-house-has-become/
Garth,
Great post today. Obviously based on the early comments; you’ve hit a nerve with some of the sad souls who call Vancouver home. I was one of them once upon a time. My wife & I left for an actual ‘world city’ several years ago.
We’ll move back at some point; but I doubt we’ll stay for too long. It’s not that Vancouver isn’t a lovely place; it’s just that it’s full of people who don’t know that there’s a whole bunch of other ‘Best places on Earth’ too! And the weather; that alone has me booking my next flight out!
Not 1st- Colonial Backwater, not regional city. Happy?
RD- you have no idea what you’re talking about unless you’re referring to two towns in Ontario. Both Paris & London have much more intricate and elaborate transit systems than Vancouver. More people travel the Underground every day in London than live in Vancouver. Think about that for a second.
Aussie Update
Set of videos re the Aussie housing price bubble.
I’m sure the Canadian experience is not too different.
http://www.youtube.com/user/AussiePropertyBubble#p/u
My pick
Joye Vs Keen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IVbhAJ8zl4
SkyTrain = a subway that is mostly above ground
Paris Metro, London Underground = subway
Paris RER, London commuter trains = basically a subway with a different name, trains run frequently
What isn’t a subway? The “GO train” ie the hourly train service to Aldershot and Oshawa in Toronto is complete rubbish. Vancouver has much better transit than Toronto
What do you mean don’t blame banks, zionists and their fellow travellers? They were never not involved in my stock investment going to zero or my precious metal investment getting knee capped every step of the way.
I did not knee cap the price of metal or flop the price of my stocks lower than whale crap. When those paper flogging politically correct scam artistists and their allies are dropped in the lake of fire or executed it will be a great day for investors and man kind in general.
# 10 Robert Dudek
“London doesn’t have a subway”. Last time I was there the “Tube” was amazing. Five different levels at some stations, I seem to remember. Maybe they closed it down. :)
Correction areas = Windsor, London, etc. (already crashed from the many auto/parts jobs dying off).
Garth has posted apartment/commerical buildings from Windsor in the past, so he must be looking. ;)
Also, some areas in the Maritimes are far less bubbly than “godless” Toronto or “delusional” Vancouver.
#30 Worried Realtor.
Can you read? Or are you just a fool ?
I have been posting here a long time I am as bearish on RE as it gets .
Why don’t you look up some of my previous posts and then decide if I am a realtwhore or not.
You seem to be clueless.
#33 cool on 10.18.11 at 10:41 pm
Does anyone know why Red Deer is more expensive than Calgary?
Because it’s only half the distance to that world class city further north up QE2.
ha ha
The US property bubble with all its magic investments vehicles put the world on its ear when it came unglued.
The China property bubble should do the same.
I dont know any elite player or strong track record investor who owns RE.
Garth is just picking up RE likely vulched with inside track on owners as all the best deals are had.
Remember, some properties are must haves and you will never get them at the bottom.
I have 3 properties around the globe I’m looking at now two years. The owners know me and I stay in touch.
I want them to know I’m ready when the Sh*t hits with a reasonable offer.
Driving around Toronto all you see is homebuilders/renovators working. that is 1/5th of the economy….. C R A Z Y. Canada will be hit with a depression when housing bubble fails. You will have 15-20% unemployment. It’s going to happen only the longer thegame goes the bigger the problem later.
——–
Have you noticed the amount of people complaining about education, saying that you can make loads of money without a degree.
Have you noticed that many of these uneducated somehow keepon benefiting from the real estate bubble?
Subsidize real estate and you guarantee the decline of civilization.
Garth, remember the times you and Patty Croft were at different ends of the real estate spectrum? Of course she was working for RBC then. Well, there she was singing your song on The National last night.
Good thing you’re not liable to get a swollen head – it would explode!
Trust me, it takes management the better part of a year to accept they have a big loss on their hands, and that process can’t even start until the mid office has done all the forensics.
———–
And then management gives the trader a huge bonus to shut him up so they won’t look stupid. LOL!
Garth, last night on the Lang O’Leary exchange they compared the 1989 RE bubble with this one.
The graph they showed indicated a very sharp increase in prices in 89, compared to a slow steady incline reflecting today’s pricing.
I was surprised at the comparison because I thought todays RE unaffordability was the worst in history. Guess I was wrong.
What were the main factors that made it worse in 1989?
Only one – interest rates. Today’s emergency rates are a total anomaly. — Garth
That housing industry as 20% of GDP really stands out.
Housing is now just about equal to the financial and manufacturing sectors combined in Canada.
The good barrister mentioned really did do the right thing.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/18/dont-be-suckered-into-buying-a-house-now/
Manufacturing is now, at just over 13% of GDP, considerably smaller than real estate. — Garth
Those asking about Garth buying RE and his views.
Like myself I guess like any bargain hunting investor he is buying a targetted yield?.
Want to know when to buy, look at rental yields, not prices alone.
There are pockets already here in Aussie land that you can buy at a 8.5% annual rental yield. Prices in these areas are up to 40% down from peak. Sure they are on the fringes and in small cities – towns and most are multi tenanted buildings but good yielding RE is already out there if you are looking. No hurry though here, I have a feeling much more to choose from is on its way.
Want to know when to buy?, look at the rental yield not just price. Can you really go wrong buying something with a positive return which pays itself off?. Yes you could but even then it seems a lot safer way to invest than having just an unshakable belief that prices can’t and won’t ever correct – Hi BPOE.
Aussie Update
MELBOURNE:- “House prices are falling in Melbourne faster than US prices did when that property bubble burst,” Prosper Australia Campaign Manager David Collyer said today.
“The enormous housing oversupply and sudden buyer caution have dramatically switched the Australian trend. Anyone standing aside from the market will have saved themselves an average $50,000 – plus a small mountain of interest charges.
REIV data released Friday shows Melbourne house prices have fallen 8.3 per cent from their peak in the December 2010 quarter.
The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Index peaked at 190.94 in first quarter 2006 and only retreated 1.01 per cent in the first year. By second quarter 2011 US prices had fallen to 129.19 – down 47.8 per cent over 21 quarters.
http://www.prosper.org.au/2011/10/18/house-price-falls-steeper-that-the-us/
The Craigslist pissing contest between renters and landlords continues out here in the Comox Valley. I just chuckle reading the comments. The “reluctant landlords” as GT calls them have an out sized sense of entitlement, thinking that they can charge enough in rent to cover up the fact that they screwed up in buying the place to start with.
One comment from yesterday was especially hilarious. The “reluctant landlord” stated ” … you can’t expect to rent a $400,000 house for $1200 a month…”
Well actually, you can. Whatever the RL paid is irrelevant. If the renters can only afford to pay $1200, that’s all the RL will get, whether the house was $100K, $500K or $1MM.
Other RL’s went on to compare rents in the Comox Valley (halfway up Vancouver Island in the middle of nowhere) to Ft. McMurray, stating that they were “cheap” compared to Ft. Mac. Even more hilarious and delusional.
I guess this is what happens when naive speckers think that they are seasoned land developers, and the light starts to go on when they realize that they are merely The Greatest of Fools.
Love the picture! Nice to finally see a protester who knows what’s going on!
@ # 69 johnny C
Why buy now?
If you have to (for some really, really , really important reason) then low ball the hell out of them and MAKE IT CONDITIONAL ON A THOROUGH HOME INSPECTION with NO OTHER CONDITIONS and a QUICK or flexible in THEIR favour, closing date. (if they have already bot another home and are currently or about to carry two mtges as most of these dimwits are).
That way you are offering much less than they are WANTING to accept, but you are providing a FAST AND CONVENIENT SOLUTION TO THEIR PREDICAMENT with only one condition (a relatively “clean” offer with a closing date that reflects THEIR needs).
The way people think nowadays, (being convenience driven, unable to do math and highly emotional) you need to play these ‘cards’ against them.
They are vulnerable at this point.
Play their emotions, get them drooling with anticipation of getting a solution that suits them well, then lay it to them when you get the home inspection done (by your guy , of course), suggesting MONETARY compensation in lieu of the work that needs to be done (at an inflated estimate by your contractors, naturally) so as to keep THEIR ALL IMPORTANT FAST CLOSING DATE.
For these deals where they are ALREADY COMMITTED to their new purchase, your ability and flexibility to close asap is your ACE. Unless they are sophisticated and/or well to do (and if they were, you wouldn’t be getting this deal in the first place), they are sh&tting bricks over the two mtges they are now carrying. They are, in reality, doing the negotiating for you due to their weak (and imprudent) position.
Go get’im buddy.
Best of luck!
P.S.
Remember, every dollar you save in purchase is almost two dollars you don’t have to repay (with interest) to the F’ing bank over the lif of the mtge.
Asia association expands to Canada
With the influx of Asian buyers into Canada, notably into British Columbia and Ontario, the impact and influence of the Asian community here grows daily.
…
read more…
http://tinyurl.com/3ntws7l
Oh, yeah… forgot to mention. Out here in the Comox Valley, most people work 3-4 part-time jobs per household to make ends meet. This is not Ft. Mac where Tim Horton’s employees make $35/hr.
This place is even funnier in that the residents oppose the opening of an underground coal mine with minimal surface/environmental footprint (the area was a coal mining hub from the 1880’s to 1960’s) yet expect that ever more $$$ be forked over to them by the province and the feds because the tax base is shrinking.
Delusions running rampant.
Today’s emergency rates are a total anomaly. — Garth
No Garth, low interest rates are the new norm. Everybody here better get used to it. Money is cheap because governments can print it; Why should we pay more for it?
#33 – Red Deer better than Calgary…
Maybe because ppl in Red Deer know a lake is not a bug-infested stagnant, smelly pond.
Or maybe not. You want to see houses backing on real lakes, (at a decent price) move to Nova Scotia.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11112424&PidKey=-662153333
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11225520&PidKey=-936439131
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10813188&PidKey=2090180033
92 Crazy
true, that money is cheap, but Inflation is here and will erode your purchasing power.
Hey Moneta, yesterday you were commenting on the realities of suburbia. Check out this movie with another take on the future of Suburbia. Maybe you’ve watched this,but if you haven’t, it’s an interesting 59 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug
@60 terces
very interesting – this is a blog about RE armagedon, and yet you are buying where the correction is already happening?
I would like to be a fly on the wall to see how that works.
______________________________________________
#60 Van guy waiting
Why would you buy RE now? In the correction areas, how much correction is there? Examples please.
______________________________________________
come on boys–wake up and take the blinders off–haven’t you been reading anything on this blog about the many areas that have had price declines in the last 12 to 18 months—i’ve posted many “Smoking deals” on here as well as many others
how about a 3700 sq. ft. TH —price drops in the last little while of over 100k –now at 599k—over 70k below assessed value—pretty nice place —no idea why the owners “have to sell—you look and find it –it’s not that hard to do
majority of the lowrise condos in Port Coquitlam are now down an average of 12% to 15%–lots of owners underwater
boys –you’ve got to do some research if you want to really know what’s happening
And in addition to that pessimistic blogs like this will continue to dampen consumer confidence such that the Central Bank is incentivized to maintain such low rates in an effort to ignite the economy by promoting consumer borrowing and spending.
It is what it is. Work your magic folks. There are those who will roll with the punches and adapt to the change, those who wait for the change and those who deny the change.
@Crazy #92
No Garth, low interest rates are the new norm. Everybody here better get used to it. Money is cheap because governments can print it; Why should we pay more for it?
You are wrong.
Yes central bank can print money but they can’t control interest rates. The bond market does that.
Printing money creates inflation, at some point this causes investors to borrow more and to seek better yields (increased money velocity). This drives up interest rates
Either that or the central bank raise rates themselves
Either way rates go up.
For a better explanation:
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/10/producer-inflation-continues-to.html
Aussie Update
It’s a video kind of day.
The Sydney luxury apartment boom. Pt 1 -3.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=KZ7sUoonbvs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RogTrrTFCY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhJAKCUGcFg&feature=related
Acccording to Josh Kosman (Buyout of America):
2000-2008 private equity firms bought < 3000 american companies employing close to 10m. people nearly 1 out of 10 in the private sector.
The banks love the % FEES up front -big banks financed the buyout boom just like the housing boom. "In 10 years private equity have generated more than $1Trillion new debt."
1) buy a target with small down and lots of other people's money
2) leverage it with huge loans using the acquired company as collateral.
3) cut short term costs through radical layoffs
4) resell at a profit within five years before the cuts and debt have totally crippled the business
If interest rates rise how many of these will go bust and throw the next group of citizens out of work? Is this why the inside experts give the date 2015?
circles – In the past 4 out of 8 treasury secretaries joined private equity
———————————————-
interconnective tissue ?
The Atlantic Bridge, the British affiliate organization to the American Legislative Exchange Council,
As Scandal Engulfs American Legislative Exchange Council’s UK Affiliate, a Closer Look at Its US OperationLee Fang and Scott Keyes, ThinkProgress | Report
Earlier this month, the U.K.’s Charity Commission shut down Atlantic Bridge after an investigation revealed that the nonprofit has operated as little more than a front for various corporate lobbying and Tory party interests
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2009/12/05/72376/bcbs-alec-health/
Charity created by Liam Fox axed after watchdog issues criticismAtlantic Bridge dissolved by trustees after Charity Commission criticism raises questions over Fox's link with Adam Werritty (the guardian)
Garth,
You sound like every other “centre of the earth” robot espousing virtues of how Vancouver is a backwater town, delusional, etc, etc. The schtick gets old. We get it, housing is unnafordable, the fundamentals are out of whack, but please stay in Ontario, it’s your to discover, and ours to laugh at!
I actually own property in Vancouver. Thanks for proving my point. — Garth
#83 Ron.
Boy, I would have loved to see that 89 RE crash comparison exchange on Lang Oleary yesterday night. I searched web for it everywhere but can’t find a link to yesterday nights episode.
If you could post a link to it much appreciated for sure !
Thanks in advance
Come on, T.N., you’ll only ever be second at best- Garth is always first!
…But this will not end well.
“The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission.”
John F. Kennedy
#34 Mr. Phantom… “Truth is, unless there is some change in the way the inmate thinks; unless he can change his thoughts about what does and doesn’t constitute anti-social and pro-social attitudes and behaviour, there won’t be a significant reduction in crime. In Canada today crime is down anyway (although violent crimes might be up…not sure). Don’t get me wrong here please because I still believe that people who come into conflict with the law should be held accountable. What I am suggesting rather is that “getting tough on crime” does little more than incarcerate greater numbers of people without looking more closely at the factors and belief systems that motivate people to behave in the ways that they do in order to try and change those criminogenic thoughts that result in criminal behaviour. If we are concerned about the safety of society, it would seem that trying to change how an offender thinks will do more than spending additional billons to hit them with heavier sanctions.
——————————–
Aggression in various forms is encouraged from childhood. Unless you modify your capitalist system (which arguably, by extended corollary, necessitates the creation of a legalized slavery called prisons), your politically correct (read: thought policed) statements on reforming the minds of prisoners, would seem a tad sanctimonious.
What reduction in crime? We still have it. If you were really interested in ELIMINATING rather than REDUCING crime, you would not defer the act of elucidating the origins of evil to others, you would examine the issue yourself more closely. Yes, I return the onus on you, sir, to act upon your own words.
Nothing ever changes, because WE do not change.
Not sure whether this article has been posted before. makes a nice change to post a Canadian link.
Economics has met the enemy, and it is economics
Rational-expectations theory and its corollary, the efficient-market hypothesis, have been central to mainstream economics for more than 40 years. And while they may not have “wrecked the world,” some critics argue these models have blinded economists to reality: Certain the universe was unfolding as it should, they failed both to anticipate the financial crisis of 2008 and to chart an effective path to recovery.
The economic crisis has produced a crisis in the study of economics – a growing realization that if the field is going to offer meaningful solutions, greater attention must be paid to what is happening in university lecture halls and seminar rooms.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/economics-has-met-the-enemy-and-it-is-economics/article2202027/singlepage/#articlecontent
@ #57 Corey
I’m guessing southwestern Ontario :)
It’s Time to Buy That House
Houses aren’t the magic wealth creators they were made out to be during the bubble. But when prices are low, loans are cheap and plump investment yields are scarce, buyers should jump. – The Wall Street Journal OCTOBER 15, 2011
http://tinyurl.com/6g3dtok
That article is about American real estate: “U.S. house prices have plunged by nearly a third since 2006, and homeownership rates are falling at the fastest pace since the Great Depression.” Are you saying these conditions now apply in Kelowna? — Garth
Garth, what do you think of Oakville real estate, specifically a 3 bedroom townhouse.
#44 Nonplused
Your pot theory is nonsense. Pot has had it’s bubble too. It’s worth %40 less now from 2 years ago. There’s no profit to launder into RE.
That sign in the photo today is way off the mark. The Occupiers don’t want other peoples’ money. They want their money back which the bankers stole via political and legal deceit. They are blaming themselves, that’s what they are acting upon. Why do so many of you on this blog not understand this obvious concept? Why do I ask questions for which I already have an answer?
The photo presents a false dichotomy that is the conventional left and right political spectrum. Always blue versus red, the deadly colour combo that affects your mind directly. It’s no mystery why these are used on the vehicles of the corporate policy enforcers (police officers). On an abundance of flags, on many corporate logos, the two pills made famous by the Matrix. Google “blue versus red” and you will unwittingly find out how video games are being used to mind control our youth.
My clear objective while I am on this blog is to always keep this concept in front of you, that you are persuaded most easily through mental chicanery. Your real rulers already have TOTAL control of everything, a fact that most would balk at, but nonetheless it is true beyond a shadow of a doubt. And it all begins with controlling your thoughts, which are under constant bombardment. Did you really think those are just cell phone towers sprouting up in weird places? And yet, dropped calls everyday.
There are posters here that appeal to the hive mentality, the herd consensus, the robotic impulse to conform. They are here to betray you. They want to put everyone in little boxes with cute name-tags, so as to fool themselves that they have control of their own thoughts, let alone, yours. It has to be either this way or that way? If you search your feelings, you will realize it should be neither way.
I actually own property in Vancouver. Thanks for proving my point. — Garth
So you rent it while you spend (I’m spitballing here) 75% of yout time in the great smog?? Wouldn’t that make you part of the problem??? Just sayin.
My real estate makes me knowledgeable about local conditions. — Garth
vancouver a regional backwater while toronto is world class???
well ok if you say so, but…
while spending over a year living and working in asia i met and spoke with THOUSANDS of ppl in japan and se asia. always the same question – where are you from? Canada? ….99.5% of replies were along the lines of “vancouver is beautiful”. 0.3% mentioned toronto and 0.2% nova scotia.
the world knows LOTS about vancouver and very little about the rest of canada – it’s just a fact, like it or not.
you easterners can stay in sunny winnipeg or lovely toronto – the lineups at the ski lifts are getting too long on all those wet dark days of winter! (unless your above the clouds in 40cm of fresh powder heaven – bring on the rain!)
bigrider is a closet realtor? Tell me it ain’t true…
More evidence that the banking system is one big criminal organization:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/bofa-said-to-split-regulators-over-moving-merrill-derivatives-to-bank-unit.html
Do I need to get a new supply of tin foil for this blog? — Garth
#91 Comox Valley Observer
The Comox Valley is a beautiful place. Great place to be from… Unfortunately, unless you are (were?) a RE developer or Realtor, the economy kind of sucks. Any industrial jobs are long gone… good luck trying to get the old Tsable River mine up and running. The east coast of Van Isle is rampant with NIMBYism.
The truth about the banking system;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXzKcS_9qi8&feature=colike
Sure, let the banks fail. Hope you can live on air. — Garth
Wow….I can’t believe how many people are ripping Vancouver. No wonder there are so many people in BC that would like to separate from the know it all Easterners. I have lived here for 40+ years and have travelled all over the world…..and I can honestly say besides Maui…..there is no other place that I rather live.
You can’t blame the people in Vancouver for outrageous housing prices as foreigners have driven the prices up. Yes, it will correct…..but if you could afford to buy here why would you live anywhere else in Canada…..unless you enjoy using your snow blowers and block heaters.
Cheers,
Trev16
“Foreigners have driven the prices up.” Please provide source material. — Garth
83 Ron
Capture the Mood
bank bailouts and the implicit government guarantee to bail out future depositors
over lending in oil and real estate in Alberta
John Turner, leader of the opposition Liberal Party, argued against it. “Is there now to be an implicit government guarantee to bail out future depositors in any difficulty?” he asked.
(http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/prime_ministers/clips/5060/
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,960167,00.html#ixzz1bF89zwZx
========
“According to economic theory, government intervention may be justified by certain market imperfections – in this case, the absence of a market for deposit insurance. Given the types of risk and uncertainty common in the insurance sector, market imperfections are often caused by asymmetrical information resulting in moral hazard or adverse selection.”
DEPOSIT PROTECTION IN CANADA
Prepared by:
Nathalie Pothier
Economics Division
October 1992
In practice, the CDIC Act was amended twice: first by Bill C-42 in 1987 and second by Bill C-48 in 1991. These amendments were made in the context of the federal government’s financial institution reform. Indeed, as Mr. Hockin noted, Bill C-42 marked the initial steps in a concrete process toward the globalization of financial markets.
http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/BP/bp312-e.htm#B. Moral Hazard(txt)
disciple on 10.19.11 at 12:01 pm
—–
Sky-Hell
Blue-Red
Right-Left
Right-Wrong
Righteous-sinful
Adroit-Gauche
Left comes from the word sinister and sin comes from…
Notice how everything good is on the right and everything bad on the left.
Never EVER swear putting your left hand on a bible LOL!
Cyberwarfare Duqu may be the first in a wave of new Stuxnet-like worms targeting companies in Europe.
My real estate makes me knowledgeable about local conditions. — Garth
I beg to differ Garth. You are actually not really in tune with local conditions. At least not here in the GVRD. Fundamentally I agree with you that housing and it’s prices here are not fundamentally supported, but the chicken little scenario you keep predicting just won’t happen.
I predict a housing correction of 15% and a slow, multi-year melt after that. What chicken? — Garth
Some of you wanted a link to yesterday’s Lang and O’Leiry Exchange:
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/TV_Shows/Lang_&_O'Leary_Exchange/1308689786/ID=2156087096
I am saying IF the US is so close to the early stages of an upswing, as so many are beginning to think it might well be, so too will that spill over into Canada.
It is my experience that Kelowna lags behind when the North American economy falters. We hear about it in the news but that is about it unless it persists for a good long while. A recession appears to spread across the country like a virus – first hitting Ontario from the US due to all the heavy petting the two are always engaged in, then moving into Alberta as the faltering economies demand for fuel falls and then Vancouver and then Kelowna.
On the other hand Kelowna is very quick to participate in an uptick in the economy. When better times return to places like Ontario those who postponed a move to Kelowna are quick to resume their plans with the improving economy and skip right on over the country to spend here. Albertans save all year just to bask in the Okanagan sunshine and boat in something larger than a murky mud puddle during their two week summer vacation.
Argue it all you want… I see it every time the economy changes direction, Kelowna is more immune to those gyrations in the economy, slow to accept a lag and quick to participate in a run. I know many of your readers will argue otherwise but they would be wrong. Wait and see… when things move up again, as we know they eventually will and probably sooner than they think, Kelowna will be one of the first to participate. But don’t despair people for as Kelowna is to Canada, Canada is to the rest of the North American economy.
That the US appears to be making headway is good news for all Canadians none-the-least Kelownians.
I predict a housing correction of 15% and a slow, multi-year melt after that. What chicken? — Garth
Forgive me for thinking that. What with all your anecdotal references via emails, “personal stories” of people singing the RE blues on the west coast dominating your blog entries. A broken clock is right twice a day as well Garth. Sooner or later there will be a correction. To what degree is anyone’s guess. However, predicting for 2-3 years EVERYDAY doesn’t mean you’re a sage or a prophet.
You’re 100% free to ignore me. Too bad you are unable.– Garth
I posted the link above to the Lang and O’leiry show and looked at it after posting it.
Real estate and it’s comparison to 89 was a very short, less than a minute topic at around the 30 minute mark, not much to see there :)
The rulers simply can’t increase interest rates since low interest rates is the only reason why the modern middle class is still here. Even more – they have to provide the conditions on the base of which credits are affordable for the majority of people. The rulers need the middle class as an integrating force for the society and the ground for their existence.
Higher interest rates would bring us back to the ninetieth century, when 10% would be incredibly reach and the rest would be plain poor – big brothers will never let it happen.. if it is not happened by itself… but, then, what might serve as the triggering event neede for that… ???
I’ve misspelled ” rich” above – shame on me…
Trev16
Foreigners are the fools in Vancouver. The greater fools are the residents here that got caught in bidding wars. So it’s not all the foreigners fault for this bubble. In the end, the foreigners will be standing while Vancouverites will be broke ass.
Put in a bid on a house in Vic. Didn’t think I had it in me but the Wife likes it, good location. Depressed house, depressed buyer (divorce situation), Depresseed market. 4BDR 1 Bath. I knocked 15% off the list and called the Realtor. $460,000 asking, offer … $390,000.
The realtor actually wrote it up, I was amazed… Seller was furious with the offer, and scratched it out and put
$458,000. And I was so glad, the next day pulled up the listings to find an emaculate 5BDR for $460,000. Needlesss to say I did not counter offer… if I ever do, it will be even less next time.
It’s a great time to be a renter. No subject to’s, pre-approved, and I can wait forever…
Ok Garth poney up, you admit you have bought some property.
How about a new thread, you have told us to sell, but not how to take advantage and buy.
You are investing in some real estate, tell us your secrets. Or do I have to pay $900 bucks to come to your seminar like Tom Vu…
All in due course. And free. — Garth
#97 Devil’s Advocate
“roll with the punches and adapt to the change”
Isn’t not buying an over-prioced house and doing other things with your money just that?
#68 Smell The Coffee
More importantly, any increase in income such a household generates will go towards debt servicing, not savings or investment. This is a massive debt overhang that needs to be cleared first (deleveraging), and the real economy is going nowhere until then.
This is what awaits Canada, with similar household debt and pathetic income growth.
Trev16
Is this what you mean by “Ontario block heater”.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/calakmul/4253540417/
“Sure, let the banks fail. Hope you can live on air. — Garth”
Of coarse the banks should fail.
ANY business that makes unwise business decisions should pay the consequences.
If I made poor investment choices, forcing my business to the brink of bankruptcy, do you feel it appropriate, that I’m bailed out, with any of your tax revenue Garth? I don’t think so.
With all due respect, please save the
“They’re systemically critical / to big to fail” crap.
This bailing out of private corps has been happening for decades in the US.
Privatize the record profits, while publicly distributing the losses through perceived tax burden increase and unseen tax via inflation.
This is Just more fear mongering.
Look at Iceland, the world will go on, it’s time to end to this corrupt practice.
The OWS movement lacks the truth and unless they get educated fast, will fizzle out.
take care,
Blacksheep
Got a call today, out of the blue, from an old acquaintance, looking to reconnect. A little small talk, but the reason for her call was clear: she’s a mortgage broker, looking to drum up business in the gvrd. I was an easy touch once, and she sold me into a mortgage that cost me thousands to discharge when I sold my place. Knowing what I know now, and having survived that experience, she’ll never see another dollar of my business, or that of anyone else I know.
Say what you will about the evil that realtors do, but the hottest parts of hell remain reserved for the mortgage brokers.
#120Moneta on 10.19.11 at 12:25 pm
Never EVER swear putting your left hand on a bible LOL!
————————————————————–
Matthew 5:34-38 New International Version (NIV)
34 But I tell you, do not swear an oath at all: either by heaven, for it is God’s throne; 35 or by the earth, for it is his footstool; or by Jerusalem, for it is the city of the Great King. 36 And do not swear by your head, for you cannot make even one hair white or black. 37 All you need to say is simply ‘Yes’ or ‘No’; anything beyond this comes from the evil one.
Devil’s Advocate:
I am saying IF the US is so close to the early stages of an upswing, as so many are beginning to think it might well be, so too will that spill over into Canada.
==
Bwa ha ha ha ha ha! That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. So let me get this straight: Canada did not follow the US when prices fell there, but somehow we’re going to follow them back up when their prices rise? Win / Win!
Man, things must be pretty bad for realtors in Kelowna if they’re hitting the bottle that hard lately.
#97 Devil’s Advocate
We should all just think happy thoughts, DA.
whirligigging
U.S. Century Bank – media hyped?
Florida Bank, Used as ATM by Insiders, Won TARP Loan But Now Teeters
http://www.propublica.org/article/florida-bank-used-as-atm-by-insiders-won-tarp-loan-but-now-teeters
Insider loans
corporate ATM, funneling tens of millions of dollars to ventures in which they had a stake.
http://www.propublica.org/article/florida-bank-used-as-atm-by-insiders-won-tarp-loan-but-now-teeters
Leafsfaninyvr
You’re an idiot for ripping Garth. A bigger idiot for being a leafs fan. People in or from Toronto are stubborn and believe that things are different. Keep believing you are different. Keep spending $300 on leafs tickets for shit tix. Boy oh boy. You guys are in deep shit
As a strategy yes I suppose one could opt to do so as people do every day in every market, past, present and no doubt will continue to in the future. No one wants to, or should buy, an “over priced house”. That would be the “greater fool” thing to do. But what constitutes an “over priced house”? Certainly one might have thought most Vancouver homes 3 years ago were overpriced. Were they afforded the opportunity to buy one today at its three year ago price I think most would jump at it.
It is not what you think it is worth but what another is ready, willing and able to pay that establishes the worth of a good or service.
For three years this “pathetic blog” (Garths own words BTW) has predicted a price capitulation that has yet to materialize(1). I wonder if, as predominantly predicted here, it ever will – if at all.
So from where I am sitting my call is that the strategy you propose is not so much “adapting to change” as it is “waiting for change”. Your dime…
(1) The price capitulation prediction of the readers far exceeds that of Garths own.
#124 DA
Albertans save all year just to bask in the Okanagan sunshine and boat in something larger than a murky mud puddle during their two week summer vacation.
______________________________________________
in the last 2 summers of visiting friends in Kelowna, it was quite noticeable that there was a lack of Alberta licence plates on the roadways—(compared to previous years)but then again, I guess they all could have flown (right???)
you’re grasping at straws—anything to try and keep your pumping going
many months ago you posted on here that when things got bad as they were at that time, you would repeat to yourself–“Things will get better”– “Things will get better” –remember that DA??—well guess what –things haven’t got much better—we’re only starting the decline !!!!
PS: the only ones moving to Kelowna are more H.A.s’ —but they do buy property–just don’t sell them a depreciating asset
peter mckay spotted in north van, i hear
can only mean bc wins the big fed contract (now there’s a first)
vancouver land prices continue to rise. this like having 10 olympics over 30 yrs without the billion$ security shaft.
#127 888realtor on 10.19.11 at 12:57 pm…
“The rulers need the middle class as an integrating force for the society and the ground for their existence.”
——————————-
No longer true, is this, and I’m not sure if it ever was true. They have always had third world slavery, and by always, I mean well before the advent of the written alphabet.
The fact is that the middle class at this time in modern fascist societies is irrelevant. Please wake up to this fact for the sake of your and your family’s future.
Ready to Invest in Homes Again
Spending patterns continue to be in flux.
October 2011 | By Lawrence Yun
Americans socked away $250 billion in each of the 10 years prior to 2008—before the onset of the financial crisis. The savings rate was a low 2 to 3 percent of disposable income. Starting in 2008, consumers became more careful about spending and are now saving some $600 billion a year.
The adjustments were certainly warranted. But the rise in savings has not affected all sectors of the economy equally. Spending on food, clothing, utilities, and health care has hit new highs. The growing population is fueling these areas, so where are the increased savings coming from?
Vehicle sales have fallen to about 12 million units a year over the past three years, well below the 16 million to 17 million unit sales pace typical before the slowdown. Then there are home sales. New- and existing-home sales hit 1.2 million and 7.1 million, respectively, in 2005. The comparable figures are now 300,000 and 5 million.
Appears to me Devore the evidence suggests suggests you wrong. Americans clearly are cognitive of the errors of their ways and setting about fixing them. Canadians have been given advance warning and, I am confident, will not go there.
Developer flyer landed in my mail. Ghastly thing. Shiny three folded paper, with silly foldout of a model dressed in French Louis IV garb. Something about living among jewels..
Builder feels that Keele street and King/Vaughan road in Vaughan is where nobility lives. Right next to farmer fields and a disputed gravel pit.
Offering town homes and single family homes (on 42ft lots). Asking price to start is $550k (starter townhome) to over a million for SFH.
Yet, 8yrold homes 3,500 sqft sitting on 65ft/350ft lots in Kleinburg can’t sell for over $1.1, some taking mos to sell. These same homes sold for $1.8 in recent boom.
Who would buy a townhouse in a field, near a gravel pit for $550+??? let alone a SFH builder home for 1 million?
This is insane.
Re comment 146
I’m not sure that American’s are fixing their problems as much as defaulting. If they default, the debt gets charged-off and doesn’t show up in their statistics.
Meanwhile, the American’s are busy with the next bubble, which is the cost of college tuition.
The US will not default on federal debt. BTW, the plural of ‘American’ is ‘Americans.’ No apostrophe. They teach that at college. — Garth
Leafsfaninyvr
You’re an idiot for ripping Garth. A bigger idiot for being a leafs fan. People in or from Toronto are stubborn and believe that things are different. Keep believing you are different. Keep spending $300 on leafs tickets for shit tix. Boy oh boy. You guys are in deep shit
Either you aren’t bright enought to decipher my obviously complex handle, or are simply stoned. Let me make it easier. leafs – fan – in – yvr! I can see where you got confused. I am neither from Toronto, or in it. That would be Garth!! But I do agree with your assessment of Torontonians. See the irony there? Probably not.
#88 JayDee,
of course he knows what’s going on. That’s why he is blaming the victims to deflect from the real GOP – Government of the People by the Plutocrats for the Plutocrats.
#146 Devil’s Advocate
Yes, setting about repaying their debts, not buying cars or houses (or iPads, as Apple’s quarterly numbers indicate) when they’re not defaulting on them, exactly as I have said.
Is everything upside down in your world, or just logic?
#114 disciple to Bigrider- bigrider is a closet realtor. tell me it isn’t so.
Not a chance.
Disciple is a martian in disguise. Tell me it isn’t so/
Disciple,
You stupid old burnt out hippee… the banks didn’t steal their money – those twits walked right in the front door and begged for a good screwing. The banks merely obliged them as any good host would.
These bums have no one to blame for their lack of success than themselves. They should all get some kind of job and try contributing to society instead of demanding some kind of free handout.
Halifax BPOE wins huge contract.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/10/19/pol-shipbuilding-announcement.html
8 Billion goes to BC, but I can see those jobs going to Oregon, just like the BC Ferries. If you want JOBS JOBS JOBS its time to pack up and move EAST.
Cost of living is 1/4 the price of vancouver and you get paid more.
Garth:
Foreigners are part of the reason why we are where we are. Especially in Van and TO where Chinese people are spending big money on freedom. The people in China that have money, they try to get the hell out of there so they can raise their families in a better environment. If u have money like they do, over paying is not a problem because they see it as buying freedom. If prices drop, they don’t care. They are where they want to be. Have you been to China? Are you Chinese? I’m sorry Garth, you need to be Chinese to really understand.
Example http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/canadian-real-estate-bubble/3233
I am Chinese and know many Chinese families that don’t care about a RE bubble. Freedom is priority.
#146 DA
Ready to Invest in Homes Again
Spending patterns continue to be in flux.
October 2011 | By Lawrence Yun
______________________________________________
is this the Lawrence Yun who is Chief Economist and Senior VP of research for the National Ass of Realtors???
boy DA –you better get out more –this guy isn’t that acurate with his research is he
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/
maybe his research on this matter may come into question , as his other research has —-now might be a good time to give it up and apologize to Devore–what do you think???
Ya were different…LOL
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44956234
Economic predictions are way off compared to weather predictions. Weather prediction is way more scientific with a lot of supercomputers computing minute by minute data. To my mind, economic prediction looks like more of an art. May be economics must be moved to schools where they teach Arts (and combine it with a bit of Arithmetic).
Tom, Dick and Harry are making economic predictions. Why not me?
Here is my economic prediction combined with Intuition (not Arithmetic): The markets will go up and down. If you watch the eventual path, you can notice that it is going to be a path downwards. Where is this going to end? It will end in a depression (don’t get confused with recession) by 2013 for US. The affects of which will be at varying degrees on different countries.
Canada: It is not the geographical proximity that is going to hurt us. It is the trade tie up. Are we going to find another trade partner in a short time span who can take over?
Now, it is your turn to make economic predictions.
Garth, as welcomed as your advice on portfolio theory is, perhaps you could devote a bit more of your efforts in sharing with us the right way to buy property with examples.
You have done so in the past, but few and far between when compared to the reiteration of your approach to portfolio construction/strategy.
If I could, I would hire you to find me an investment property as I feel somewhat limited in my ability in that regard.
I just know what to avoid.
Say please. — Garth
#81 Herb on 10.19.11 at 7:31 am
Well said, Herb. Also, the gent in the panel (forgot his name) said that he and his GF are planning to sell and rent……these panelists are not people whose daily data feed consists solely of the pabulum belched out by MSM. Many will soon internalize that debt is a four letter word.
#159 Garth to Bigrider-” Say please”
Please.
Thank you in advance.
Much better. Stay tuned. — Garth
“…maybe his research on this matter may come into question , as his other research has —-now might be a good time to give it up and apologize to Devore–what do you think???” #156poco on 10.19.11 at 5:31 pm
Nope, not quite yet.
It is common knowledge that individual debt in the US has be curtailed back significantly as has been reported on this various blog many time. I merely referenced one confirming source of that information I readily had at hand. That they are, and we know they ARE, is a reparatory measure which is a part of the economic rebuilding process. Recessions have a way of cleansing the economy of such inefficiencies as wreckless spending. It’s a learning process. Not that there isn’t a possibility of something completely unexpected coming from out of left field but all things being equal I am confident we are through the worst of it. And really three years back I was as much a bear as any of you.
I know you all don’t like me posting a different SPIN on the economy here, but really, for the most part, those followers of Garth who post here exaggerate Garth’s own predictions wildly.
Time will tell
–
Oh what a glorious day, pouring with snow, liquid sunshine accompanied by Neil Young and Crazy Horse’s “Rust Never Sleeps”, which perfectly describes the white space between my ears!
*
Sinking Spain Never mind Greece et al; Zooming downhill Standard of living in NAmerica; GS downgraded Another Bre-X in the making, while doing god’s work; 3:12 clip Lousy advertising. Church moves US$3 mln. out of BoA to a credit union and Credit Unions “This is why the big banks are crapping their pants right now!” wrh.com; Citigroup “So, if I defraud investors of a cool billion, then reap billions more in the resulting credit default swaps, can I get off of the hook with just a $285 million fine and keep the rest?: wrh.com; Looting by BoA OWS may take a different tack.
BoA Derivatives Holy bailout Batman! 6:43 clip Obomba working for GS? Maybe that’s why they have been downgraded; Greece Now the citizens are pissed. They will have to lower their standard of living, as we are in NAmerica; The Age of Aquarius Umm, not quite; Money Junkies admit to being money junkies. Money is only a tool, that’s all; Scary Chart Click the chart. It’s Hallowe’en time! 7:04 clip Greek haircut leaves them bald; Expansion “Translation: The Federal Reserve would rather murder a million of you than admit their debt-slavery system is crashing.” wrh.com.
7:03 clip Garth may not agree with Ron Paul, but this FEMA person does; Lurch Not the character in The Addams Family, but NATO in Libya; Ready Could always go live on a mountain peak, get struck by lightning and no one would be the wiser; The continent is dying, and is dragging us down (but only if we let it); The OWS Generation There’s the Boomer Gen., The Me Gen. The Greed is Good Gen., Gen. x and Y (those are not chromosomes), so this is a new one; Somalia “These are wars for resources and private profit; not wars to actually protect the American people from any hostile countries which could actually do us any real harm.”; Stuxnet (follow-up yo Jess’ post — “But perhaps that is how the US Government and Israel plan to derail OcupyAMERICA, by staging a major disruptive event to be blamed on “Anonymous”, which has been associated with the Occupy AMERICA movement.” wrh.com. An alternative? HAARP and drones in Africa; War Games The US fiscal shape may be in worse shape than previously thought, to keep provoking China.
*
The gap between Robots is widening.
#143 poco said
in the last 2 summers of visiting friends in Kelowna, it was quite noticeable that there was a lack of Alberta licence plates on the roadways
BC has been so downright unfriendly to Albertans in recent years that a great many have discovered Montana. If you travel down through the Eureka area and south to Kalispell and the Flathead lake area you will see Alberta plates non-stop. Many Albertans are buying property down there as well. My brother bought 11 1/2 acres of raw land 20 miles south of Eureka for 62000. Everything is far, far cheaper than BC, the speed limits are higher and the scenery is just as beautiful. Best of all the locals absolutely love Albertans and the money we spend. They will stop you on the street and thank you if they see you’re from Alberta. Screw BC. Discover Montana and Washington.
Sir Garth The Iniate To waterloo resident Just announced schnieders a large meat plant is closing it’s doors putting 1500 plus employees out of work. Along with 2000 employees from Rim’s cutback and thousands of other industries still closed from the fall of 2008. The industrial basins of the Technology Triangle are shutting down. The sale signs are everywhere. We are different here. Plus the elected regional council just voted for a two billion dollar light rail line that goes a grand total of five kilometers, just to say that the university’s have a LRT stop. They elected all conservatives. This will not end well.
Devils Advocate: “For three years this “pathetic blog” (Garths own words BTW) has predicted a price capitulation that has yet to materialize(1). I wonder if, as predominantly predicted here, it ever will – if at all.”
***********************
It’s happening NOW, as we speak.
Devils Advocate: “Appears to me Devore the evidence suggests suggests you wrong. Americans clearly are cognitive of the errors of their ways and setting about fixing them. Canadians have been given advance warning and, I am confident, will not go there.”
*****************************
Canadians don’t/won’t have a choice…it’s already spilling over.
#164Calgary Car Guy on 10.19.11 at 7:55 pm
Got to agree with you, Montana, Idaho and Washington States are damned nice parts of the world, Oregon too, and I have always found Americans to be friendly people. Less expensive than Kelowna but not by that much last time we checked out Coeur d’Alene which has many similarities to Kelowna.
Can’t figure out how they sell Canadian beer for so much less than we do in Canada though? Guess everything is more expensive in Canada though eh Calgary Car Guy?
BIGRIDER: “If I could, I would hire you to find me an investment property as I feel somewhat limited in my ability in that regard. I just know what to avoid.”
Say please. — Garth
***************************
“Say please”? That’s so cute…but then, this is a woman talking… LOL Whatcha expect?
Disciple:
“What reduction in crime? We still have it. If you were really interested in ELIMINATING rather than REDUCING crime, you would not defer the act of elucidating the origins of evil to others, you would examine the issue yourself more closely. Yes, I return the onus on you, sir, to act upon your own words.
Nothing ever changes, because WE do not change.”
With all due respect Sir, I believe that I do examine the issue closely. I am in agreement with you that some of the issues of violence can be attributed the media’s depiction of what “real” men are like (Stallone/Rambo; Terminator, and their pernicious influence on young boys that are marginalized or bullied in their schools). Consider even how Batman was portrayed in the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The 1960’s actor (was it Bruce Wayne?) was slightly overweight individual with nothing particularly remarkable about his physique. Looking at old Batman reruns now is more a matter of comedy than action. Over and against that is the later Batman with the muscular body, the V-Torso and all that stuff. Just recently the suicide of a young man who preferred figure skating over hockey came to light. I know there were other issues as well that prompted him to take his own life but I wouldn’t be the least surprised if his decision to engage in the sport of figure skating at the expense of a “real man’s” sport like hockey generated more than a few derogatory remarks that called into question his masculinity, his sexual orientation and his strength. I digress however.
With respect to your phrase, “…defer the act of elucidating the origins of evil to others”, I am honestly unable to completely understand the thought(s) you are trying to convey because I am unsure of how some of the words that you use and string together should be interpreted. What I think you are saying is that I should not attribute the origins of evil to other people but rather act upon my own words and examine myself for evil (again I am not certain what you suggest that I should be doing here as I am not in conflict with the law).
I can tell you that those who come into conflict with the law have a value system that differs from those of us who are not. I am going to use the example of violence as it plays out from time to time with those people who act out upon a moment of extreme anger while driving. It could be any crime however but I merely use that one as an example because many people are familiar with feelings of frustration during their daily commute.
How many times have Canadians cursed the driver in front of them that cut them off in traffic? I have done so myself when others have cut me off or sat a few seconds too long at a green light. The difference between me when I spout profanity at the driver that forced me to brake more quickly than I expected to and the individual who follows that driver home and commits a battery or rams his vehicle into the car being driven by the person that upset him is that I filter these thoughts that are at the heart of my hostility, anger and frustration through my value system and realize that the consequences of inflicting a degree of violence on someone is simply not worth it; that violence in a civilized society, exclusive of the soldier’s profession of arms, is unacceptable in any form apart from the use of “reasonable force” to protect yourself, your family and your property and that the inclination to use excessive force during a moment of “road rage” is a disproportionate response to the impolite action of another who acted in a desperate moment to get in front of me during rush hour.
Lastly, beating somebody up for a mild faux pas during rush hour is an anti-social action; we realize that but often times the criminal doesn’t have the thought processes to think through and consider the end result. They are experiencing the same feeling(s) that we have when somebody else acts a bit rudely or selfishly on the road. These feelings trigger the same thoughts that we harbour but our actions are different as most of us sift through these feelings and those thoughts and filter the strongest impulses out and merely rant and rave to “blow off some steam” and get on with the commute to work or home. Perhaps using a string of foul language isn’t the most constructive action one could take but once we do so, we use that as an outlet to release some of that anger and hostility and most of us feel better once we call that driver’s lineage and legitimacy into question!
My point was that if we are going to spend money, I believe that we should spend money where we are going to get the “biggest bang for the buck”, that’s all. If spending billions more did nothing more for California except increase the prison population and push the economy into insolvency forcing them to release 40,000 offenders they could no longer afford to warehouse anyway, then from my humble perspective, “getting tough on crime” to reduce the number of offenses and criminals was a failure. One of my peers sagely suggested that building more prisons to reduce crime was like building larger graveyards to reduce the number of deaths. What is a cheaper and more efficient response that WILL see a drop in crime is to spend that money on programs, compel those with substance abuse problems into treatment programs, and have some undergo anger management; essentially compel them into programs that address the shortcomings in their thinking and processing as opposed to taking the path that just locks them up. If it worked then that would be the way to go but it doesn’t work and at some point in the future, that offender is going to be released with the same faults they entered prison with at the beginning; except perhaps for the fact that now they are more violent, more jaundiced towards society and more inclined to reoffend.
If they reoffend during or after the time they are in treatment programs or programs that meet their need, then entertain incarceration by all means. The point I had was that spending more money on prisons and reforming laws to “get tough on crime” is not going to reduce the crime rate. To the contrary the rate will remain the same or increase. Taking that money and spending it on programs that show offenders how their thought processes need to be changed to appropriately respond to challenges most of us face daily is cheaper and will accomplish more that the current bill before Parliament. The preemptive change in policy adopted by Texas has seen a drop in crime since they adopted a new model and California was simply unable to pay for their Correction system any longer as it consumed more and more of the state’s budget. Keep in mind that for every dollar spent on reducing recidivism through spending billions more on the Correctional system is money that could be better spent on new schools, better hospitals and health care and improvements to universities. Texas has closed down one of its jails due to reductions in crime. I will go out on a limb here and offer my own personal conjecture that the end result of this new piece of legislation won’t accomplish that at all.
In closing Disciple, I hope that possibly I made my point somewhat clearer. Thanks for taking some time to respond to my post. I consider the fact that you replied rather nice even though our opinions may be somewhat different.
the Phantom
@ VanMan #155
You raise some good points.
The Chinese state still owns all the land.
“Renewal of Land Use Rights
Article 149 stipulates that the term of residential land use rights upon expiry of 70 years shall be renewable automatically…..The new law does not change the system of land tenure and the state still owns all land. ”
http://www.worldlawdirect.com/article/3149/property-rights-china-new-property-law-2007.html
Then there’s the problem of the ” floating population”. These are Chinese citizens who have been driven out of the rural areas and go to the big cities to find work.
But they have no residency permits to live in these cities, so these people have no rights, are considered illegal within their OWN country, and live in the most horrific conditions imaginable.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/world/asia/30china.html?_r=2&src=rechp
http://www.longwoods.com/content/18282
In Australia the real estate frenzy is dying slowly.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/life/homesproperty/agents-back-auctions-in-slow-market/story-e6frequ6-1226155918786
#166Daisy Mae on 10.19.11 at 8:14 pm
Please provide examples of the extremes claimed on these blogs.
Hey, don’t get me wrong… we ARE off those peaks attained in late 2007 early 2008 but hardly of any significance when you consider all the gains made before then. That was unsustainable, we all know that. All we’ve done is clipped the peak off a little blip on the continuing upward trend.
I have five market updates in front of me this very moment for buyers who bought 1 to 5 years ago and in all but one case their property value has increased since they purchased it.
Hey Garth…..the big news B.C. got abt 8B$ of the ship building contracts. 35B for ships, 25 B for new planes. Canada got that kinda dough? The Premier so excited she could hardly talk ( new for her)..But all these bucks are over a 30-40 year time span. I’m wondering also how many people living in Vancouver are qualified for any of these high skilled jobs? Where will prospective employees come from? Can they afford to move to Van and live there? What happens if the global economy goes rather crappy for a few years, even a recession? Will the govt still put these bucks out there for oversized duck boats…which will be technologically obsolete by the time they’re built? I’m kinda puzzled Garth…
Re #168 Devil’s Advocate
Actually the ONLY thing I have found more expensive in the Eureka Montana area compared to Calgary is beef. Other than that it’s truly stupid cheap. The Eureka area strikes me as how the Radium/Invermere area probably was 40 years ago. Some really cool little bars and shops and yes, I have always found Americans to be very friendly, hospitable people. I always speak up and defend them when some loud-mouth anti-American Canadian disses them. I may not always like their governments’ decisions but the people are friendly and genuine. I just don’t like how British Columbians have been taking our money with one hand and slapping us with the other lately. I will still camp sometimes in the Radium/Golden area but wont spend money there other than gas and beer.
Oh, and if you’re referring to car prices, yes, they’re still cheaper in the states but like I posted on an earlier Garth blog the number of cars/trucks being imported has almost dried up compared to a couple of years ago. Canadian vehicle prices have actually dropped quite a bit in the last couple of years.
135 Blacksheep – if the banks fail, what happens to everybodys deposits?
To the mentally challenged who said London and Paris have a subway. I put “subway” in quotes to mean that they do not call it a “subway”.
Vancouver has a subway just like Toronto does, except they don’t call it that. And it is still much better than Toronto’s (P.S I live in the GTA).
And I did not compare Vancouver’s “subway” to Paris/London’s “subway”.
Dear God you people are daft.
#164 Calgary Car Guy on 10.19.11 at 7:55 pm
Wrong. Just moved to BC, Parksville, from Alberta.
Went to a local body shop to get a license plate holder installed on the front bumper of my vehicle.
Went to pay the bill and the guy said: no charge, welcome to town.
Biggest body shop in town.
Do not generalize.
Spaceman: Seller was furious with the offer, and scratched it out and put $458,000.
That’s a 0.435 % reduction. What a joke.
disciple: do you drive a Toyota Corollary by any chance? Very reliable cars.
Actually we will have lack of supply of condos for 2012. There will not be enough properties constructed next year to meet the demand.
#67 Tiffa
I am Toronto born and bred and believe me when I say that I wish it weren’t so, but GTA transit sucks. I guess I will have to spell it out for you…
1) Can’t take subway to Airport
2) half a dozen stations built since 1970 but most of them “go nowhere”
3) Van’s zone system is much better that GTA; you have to pay separate fares (on separate vehicles) to go from 905 to 416 and also between different 905 cities.
4) Van has printed tickets not fareboxes/paper transfers (TTC, when will you enter the 21st century?)
5) In Van, you can travel all zones with Zone 1 prices during weekends and late at night.
6) Most streetcars in Toronto don’t have dedicated lanes. When I lived in Europe and told people about this they shook their heads in incredulity.
I’m sure I can think of more as time goes on, but I think that’s enough.
Daisy Mae: Devils Advocate: “For three years this blog has predicted a price capitulation”
It’s happening NOW, as we speak.
that would be in the Beaches (Toronto)?
I have a feeling you’re right.
Vancouver’s Translink authority is installing a “smart card” system for transit fares. The rates will become opaque since the fare will be calculated for each trip, by distance, time of day, intensity of usage, etc. Quite increases for certain routes and time can be introduced quickly and without much notice. It’s like a so-called “smart meter” for electricity, except for your bus fare.
Instead of buying a fixed rate monthly pass, you’ll have to keep topping up your card.
Meanwhile motorists will be paying tolls for the Port Mann. And oh yeah, the regional gasoline tax is going up.
Translink is hungry.
But don’t try to suggest there is any inflation going on. You’ll enjoy the hedonics of feeding Translink…
I am happy vancouver has less jobs and even love the rainy days here. do you know why?
cuz I think what if you have the same range of paid like in TO and a gorgeous sunny winter?
it will be so crowded on the road, in the mall (which has shown the signs now if you trolls around Metro town these days). do you want to live in a city like that? I know I don’t.
Just sold my rental condo in Yorkville close to $700k to buy a property in London, UK instead. But what cost 410k pounds in August now costs 500k and out of my price range, so I’m stuck with 700k in the bank and thinking it was very dumb to sell the proporty — the mortgage was paid off in a lump sum and it was making decent rent.
Stock market is out of the question as who knows what the hell is happening. Gold? It’s already very expensive, but it has gone down from its all-time high. Still, $700k in gold? Me thinks not.
I’m stuck with buying a condo from a plan or buying a house, knocking it down and building a new one, something which I don’t have any experience with and need a good contractor. The housing market might be bloated but where else can you put money into these days? No where, really.
And Garth, I want to be on your side and I tread very carefully, but you’ve been making your price-correction predictions for a while now, and it still hasn’t happened. I’ve been hearing about price corrections and bursting bubbles ever since I bought my first condo in 2004.
Wow, “Toronto is special”:
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/10/tracking-the-great-canadian-real-estate-bubble.html
Hey Garth, how do you think this (if it goes through) could affect the market short term?
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/will-israel-bomb-iran-without-notifying-the-us-1.891422
http://www.defpro.com/news/details/28920/?SID=ff289624da7946554844d029cf78a161
How long have you been negative on vancouver real estate Garth? since 400% ago?
Since average families lost the ability to own a home. — Garth
SEP
” so I’m stuck with 700k in the bank
The housing market might be bloated but where else can you put money into these days? No where, really.”
Ya I really feel sorry for you, man you got problems…
Buddy of mine is retiring so I go out to pickup a card for him to go with the gift. Three cards shops later I found a couple of retirement cards. Guess there isn’t much demand for them anymore.
So I guess I won’t hear from you on where you think is a good place to invest 600-700k?
I know nothing about you, so any recommendation would be reckless. You can always send me more information offline ([email protected]) and we’ll see. — Garth