Occupy CREA

Happily enjoying my morning massage and Grande Bold, both delivered by nubile young limbs, my serenity was jarred by a breathless report on CBC television about ‘a surge’ in the ‘red hot’ Canadian housing market. The journalist, not quite formed yet from the birth canal, was positively giddy at being able to deliver such good news, straight from the CREA publicity machine.

Realtors, 1. Media, 0.

This, of course, is exactly what I wrote about in a piece published Sunday night on this increasingly pathetic blog. A few bubbles in some major urban centres can utterly gloss over crickets everywhere else, thanks to the magic of average numbers, and the preppy naiveté of our eviscerated newsrooms.

Hell, even the Globe – where some people are old enough to now have facial hair – was suckered by the saucy little propagandists working for the real estate cartel. Here is how the breaking news was reported:

Canadian home sales climbed 2.7 per cent in September from a month earlier, illustrating what economists see as a balanced market with no signs of a bubble about to burst.  “September’s increase reflects strengthened activity in a number of major markets, led by Toronto,” the Canadian Real Estate Association said today. “The monthly increase pushed national sales to its highest level since recently tightened mortgage regulations dampened sales earlier this year.” The average price ticked up to $352,600.

Sales climbing. Balanced market. No bubble. Strengthened activity.  Highest level. Advancing prices. Wall-to-wall sunshine, dudes. Housing’s hot!

But is this really the case? Do the numbers that CREA itself manufactured support the conclusion it reached, and the headline that was fed to a story-hungry national media on a quiet Monday in October?

Not really. Here’s why.

The average house price did not tick higher. It’s actually fallen $20,000, or 5.4% from its zenith in June.  This is likely part of a trend which will take national values down by 15% over the coming months, and herald a long period of erosion.

In fact the price gain trumpeted by the media and the realtors – 6.5%, year-over-year in September – was the smallest 12-month advance so far in 2011. Moreover, CREA’s numbers show the average selling price last month was lower – not higher – than the month before. If trends matter, pay attention.

This was due in no small part to the commencement of big declines in BC. Average prices month-over-month in Vancouver plopped by almost 4%, while in poor Victoria they tumbled nearly 10%. Since these are two of the priciest, frothiest, demented, denial-drenched markets on the continent, this has significance.

And at the same time sales are down across the country (not up, as reported – they’ve fallen 2.6% since January), listings have mushroomed in most areas. This means falling demand and rising supply. You figure the rest out. The reporters are unable.

Finally, comparing this September to last year is not exactly helpful to anyone trying to make a decision to buy or sell. Last year the economy was growing, for example, now it’s not. More worthwhile is understanding what the trends are to discern what comes next. So when more people are trying to sell their houses, with prices falling from one month to the next and sales sliding lower from last winter, how’s that bullish? Shouldn’t developments like these make sellers more aggressive and buyers more demanding?

Truth is, Canada has achieved home ownership saturation. The economy’s uncertain and concerning. Mortgage rates are inching higher and mortgage rules are more restrictive. F is warning of a Europe-fueled crisis. The schizo CBC National has a panel Tuesday night on ‘preparing for recession.’ And as I detailed here yesterday, there are vast regions of this country where you can’t sell a house without losing a bundle.

Residential real estate’s now the most dangerous asset. It has the potential to destroy.

Look what it did to our media.

176 comments ↓

#1 vatoDETH on 10.17.11 at 10:22 pm

Yeah! Glad I could contribute! Hahahah!

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.17.11 at 10:26 pm

Bad news – housing bubble is starting to leak air.
Worse news – Tim Horton’s is selling Lasagna.

Housing might recover when Garfield starts ordering double-doubles.

#3 Small Steps on 10.17.11 at 10:32 pm

Does anyone audit CREA’s numbers?

#4 S on 10.17.11 at 10:33 pm

I rented a new place, through a realtor, and asked what she thought of the market. She said that people have told her for years that the market would correct but it never has – she has only been selling real estate for 5 years. She said that immigrants would continue to drive the market higher in Toronto. Sounds like the HAM argument they are using in Vancouver these days.

If home ownership is already at 70% with people borrowing to the hilt, and realtors who have not worked through the last down turn leading the charge, I would not be surprised to see a 20% fall in prices.

#5 Waterloo Resident on 10.17.11 at 10:37 pm

Here’s the truth: Tens of thousands of Americans a MONTH are coming to Canada and getting jobs here !

At a local Value Village I was talking to a lady who came up to Canada 18 months ago from Massachusetts, she’s an unemployed American and she got work here in Value Village, something she couldn’t get back home.

So there is one more job that our local unemployed youth WON’T be getting.

I feel really sorry for anyone Canadian who’s going to be graduating in the next few years, they will have to compete not only with the 25% unemployed local Canadian grads but the tens of thousands of newly arrived Americans looking for work too !

Source? — Garth

#6 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.17.11 at 10:39 pm

Someone out there (Jim Chanos) thinks that China’s bust will be a thousand times worse than Dubai.

The Chinese economy is adding $2 trillion of new debt every year, and half of that is problematic from day one, he said.

And since only 50% of the problematic debt is recoverable, about $500 billion, or 10% of gross domestic product, is bad debt, he said.

Hmmm… so, 10% of China’s GDP being bad debt? How much of Canada’s GDP is tied to Real Estate again? (20% or more I think?)

#7 Smoking Man on 10.17.11 at 10:42 pm

TEACHERS I’m A coming 

Teachers: You’re mine!!!!!!!!!!!

Do any of your students know what this is
CAN 1.5 13SEP14
or this
TSY 1.75 1NOV16
Values have been changed slightly to avoid an easy Google look up
Does anyone on this blog know what those are (Not including Garth because I know he knows) and If you do what does TSY represent or the 1.75 or the 1NOV16

What can I say, after three years of relentless bloging on main stream news blogs……….It finally happens, all I kept saying ( and no one else was at the start of my assault) is in the sixties woman did not need to work, pops provided for the family had a house , cottage lots of kids and spare change…What the hell happened……

Today two university schooled (Note: I did not say educated) professionals cohabitating the same space can’t pay their bills……..

I, ME, THE GREAT SMOKING MAN planted the seeds for occupy wall street……..Now that it’s mission accomplished, another feather in my cap, my next target.

Teachers……. I’m coming after you hard…….

MY Manifesto…..I’m going to expose how truly useless and un productive and a waste of money your species is, your arrogant self absorbed glory when all you do is condition kids to fit into a slavery model. Consequences the term you use the most that will not produce dreamers and inventers that we so need today………..

When the Janitor walks by, you read his little name tag embroidered on his shirt, and secretly say to yourself (thank good I am educated) but you are too dumb to realize that your ID badge is the same thing slave…………..

( O and you’re pension fund I peeked at the risk models, one of your graduates little grasshopper needed help from the master, ba hahahahahah they suck, that fund is going down, you heard it first on this pathetic blog)

Look what you are producing in university, feminized men that can’t think, they are good at memorize regurgitating skills and go off to be proud obedient debt tax farm slaves.

That’s it…..They even talk like woman today………….
My kids friends that are successful in school always had girly traits….The curriculum is by design………..just for that purpose……..

THE 1% DON’T WANT COMPETITORS WITH BALLS…

Lets Rock TEACHERS…..O and by the way the Universe is shrinking you’re just to stupid to see it…..Dark Matter ba hahahahaha

http://io9.com/5850679/the-mystery-of-dark-matter-just-refuses-to-be-solved

Read the above story
My favorite excerpt: “The problem, of course, is that while we know there should be lots of dark matter there, we still don’t really know exactly what dark matter is.”

Translation (“we need more funding to find nothing that’s not there” -SM)

Smoking Man the 13 year old at the time who invented the catch thingee on the Candadarm but failed science……….While designing and building and flying radio controlled aircraft, including the circuit board…………And I don’t talk like a girl….

#8 je on 10.17.11 at 10:49 pm

Saw a similar ad in the Nanaimo paper this weekend–highlighting the great market. Online one commetn read “Nanaimo is seriously undervalued; when will people realize we are the next Victoria?” The info was provided by a realtor, who was compeltely objective of course. I think news media in BC are also real estate investors as both attempts to comment on the online edition were edited out. More amazing, however, is how many head-in-the sand homeowners then regurgitate this crap as if it were fact.

#9 vyw on 10.17.11 at 10:49 pm

TO Bubble:
The Chinese Govt can just absorb the bad debt.
It is a command economy and it will be a political decision – they may let some asset prices fall for a bit to teach the speculators a lesson first.
The reality is that the US Govt can do the same thing for homeowners underwater but politics and moral hazard issues prevent it.

The Chinese Govt and the US Govt as sovereign currency issuers can buy up an unlimited amount of debt denominated in their currency. It’s a political decision.

#10 Gord In Vancouver on 10.17.11 at 10:51 pm

Residential real estate’s now the most dangerous asset. It has the potential to destroy.

Just look what it did to our media.
___________________________________

Global BC (Vancouver) has started to smarten up but their nose is still far up Remax’s rear end.

Thanks for revealing the truth, Garth.

#11 Alberta Ed on 10.17.11 at 10:53 pm

1) The rot set in at the MSM a long time ago. Anyone who dares go against the ‘narrative'(aka ‘group think’) in the MSM is committing a CLM (Career Limiting Move). 2) Most reporters didn’t get into journalism because they were business whizzes, and few have the smarts to figure out what is really happening. (see also 1).) 3) This ‘pathetic blog’ has just proven its worth, once again. Can’t wait for the new book.

#12 Kelvinator on 10.17.11 at 10:54 pm

Someone grab the net and get smoking man back into the quiet room with soft walls.

#13 Ron on 10.17.11 at 10:55 pm

Real estate is a cult in Canada. Facts and fundamentals don’t matter to 90% and this is not a receptive audience. Unfortunately for the 90%, this will result in a harder landing for them which ultimately will not be good for our society.

#14 Smoking Man's Psychiatrist on 10.17.11 at 10:55 pm

Ok Smoking Man, time to leave the keyboard, slip into your comfy straight jacket and bed down in your cozy rubber room for the night. Nighty night.

#15 Doe Dilly on 10.17.11 at 10:57 pm

T.O Bubble guy, china is not going bust like Dubai. What exactly is a ‘bust’ in Dubai? I have engineering friends working in the mideast and here is how they define the Dubai bust…hotel occupany rate down to 85% from 99%. That is not a bust. Most Canadian hotels would be in hog heaven if they could get 85% occupancy on a consistent basis.

China makes STUFF….tons of STUFF. The world needs STUFF. China will continue to grow with no hiccups for 10yrs. Besides…China will own most Canadian natural assets by decades end….so speaking more nicely about your new Chinese bosses lest they boot your T.O. bubble butt into lake ontario.

#16 Coho on 10.17.11 at 10:58 pm

Thanks for this link Vlad,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nlKAdYetOI

We complain about the disconnect between us and our elected representatives in that they are not in touch with the plight of their constituents. But, isn’t it shameful how most of us are totally oblivious to the slaughter of innocent civilians in Libya! All in our name, as we are part of the world bully that is NATO. (And now Iran is in Mr. Harper’s gun sights. That’s all we need, another war. More slaughter, and more billion$ to do it. The insanity would almost comical if people weren’t being killed by our bombs.)

But, how unfortunate that fear has many of us pre-occupied with amassing a small fortune in order to fund retirement in a country going down the tubes. The economic and geopolitical policy road we are on is going to destroy this country. And as someone aptly posted some time ago, their money (those few who have any left) aint going to save them. Not when more and more people are losing their jobs and their future as Canada along with other countries in the Rothschild’s kingdom march inexorably on to their demise.

Was listening to a radio show where the host was asking his guest if the Occupy movement is going to do any good. His tone was not unlike asking his friend if that red sweater would look good on him. My first thought was that it would suit some people to remain bent over and hope the ruling class and their minion politicians will soon run out of Viagra. But, the supply of Viagra isn’t the problem for those screwing us. There’s lots of it. Their concern is how long we’ll be willing to take it. Thankfully, though, it appears that a growing number of those most screwed and perhaps most principled have had enough – have straightened up, are speaking out, and are taking to the streets. For those that like things just as they are because they’re doing quite well, thank you very much………

…..as you were.

Chances are though, you’re in the 99%, you just don’t know it yet.

#17 dd on 10.17.11 at 11:08 pm

David Foot has a different take on housing in Canada.

“For one thing, he sees good support for housing prices in the suburbs as young adults who own urban condos trade up to bigger homes where they can raise a family.

“There’s quite a bit of opportunity for these twentysomethings to be moving out of the cities and continuing to grow the suburbs,” he said. “It’s supportive to the suburban housing market.”

What do you think Garth?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/home-owning-baby-boomers-should-consider-for-sale-signs/article2204164/

From loft to cul-de-sac and minivan. What a Boomer thing to say. — Garth

#18 timmy on 10.17.11 at 11:09 pm

Hurry up already, I’ve been waiting seven years. I now have a huge downpayment, but if we have a slow , grindnig erosion, why would I buy into a falling market? I may have to wait another five years…

#19 a prairie dawg on 10.17.11 at 11:23 pm

#5 Waterloo Resident

Spoke to a guy from South Carolina today at a job site here in the ‘Skatch’, and his whole crew is working up here on a large building project.

His words:

“In my own county (in S.C.) there’s 30% unemployment. Mostly in construction jobs. That’s why we’re up here. Ya’ll must be doing something right up here in Canada. We’re sure glad to be workin’.”

The conversation didn’t exactly leave me feeling all warm and fuzzy though…

#20 45north on 10.17.11 at 11:25 pm

criminals move into foreclosed houses:

http://mcaf.ee/v6c4m

my plan would reduce the problem: once the bank foreclosed, it would get its insurance money from CMHC and the foreclosed borrower would get $1000/month for a year.

In many many cases in the US, the bank doesn’t actually take possession of the house, it sends letters, it threatens but it does not actually take possession, therefore it is not responsible for taxes, condo fees, upkeep, finding and babysitting tenants. Oh yeah it doesn’t have to write down the loan.

Internet killed the Radio Store:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/internet-killed-radio-store-mall-vacancies-hit-all-time-record

the graph shows vacancy rising in US malls which is what I saw at the Carousel Mall in Syracuse in May

here’s an interesting story about Andy Miller, the man who saw that commercial real estate was over valued:

http://www.financialsensearchive.com/editorials/casey/2010/0209.html

#21 a prairie dawg on 10.17.11 at 11:28 pm

Occupy CREA? lol

And if there’s ever a split in the ideology there, then one day you might see a North CREA and a South CREA…

#22 Kayak Freddy on 10.17.11 at 11:28 pm

I had this dream, and it scared the crap out of me last night – in my dream I awoke like usual and headed downstairs to prepare my breakfast before heading off to work once again. The weather was fine, nothing seemed out of the ordinary. As I turned on my tv in hopes of catching the sports highlights from last night – the news was frantic – streamers flashed across the bottom of the screen. It finally came to fruition, Greece finally defaulted, but not an orderly default – and the markets in Europe dropped so severely that leaders pleaded with their citizens to remain calm – but to no avail. Markets around the world were hit with triple digit losses within seconds upon opening – and the markets had to be closed to contain any more blood letting. Banks around the world, essentially shut their doors to deter any runs on the bank. Canadian Banks for some reason were even more vulernable.
China, that powerhouse that did an excellent job in hiding its own nasty housing bubble finally popped for the whole world to see. This in itself is what caused true panic throughout the world – millions upon millions of Chinese immediately saw their savings evaporate. And anarchy hit the streets. As the world watched these 2 episodes materialize right before their eyes – you knew life as we knew it would be forever altered.
I just watched this all unfold before my very eyes as I ate my dry toast, we knew something could be in the works, months if not years we debated on blogs of the possible development. Most were called nutjobs or doomers, but it was those who were able to understand that through all the noise – the world was on a collision course and there was nothing anyone could do to stop it.
I awoke from that dream, and it was so real that I just sat up in bed and thanked my lucky stars it was just a dream. I don’t claim to have any insight into what the future brings. But, the only other time I had such a dream that awoke me in such a panic – was when I was 13 and had a dream about a mountain called St.Helens that erupted, causing massive destruction and death. And 4 days later – in complete shock, Mount Helen’s did just that.

#23 dd on 10.17.11 at 11:29 pm

#3Small Steps on 10.17.11 at 10:32 pm

Does anyone audit CREA’s numbers?

The financial statements of CREA would more that likely be audited. However, their make believe monthly analysis are surely not.

#24 R on 10.17.11 at 11:34 pm

Logic dictates that one should take advice from the person selling you something with a grain of salt. Of course as Garth points out, R/E is emotional. Most buying decisions are, even small ones. If we bought according to utility and need, the storage and organization industry would go under completely.

Next time you sit down with your financial advisor, mentally scratch off the word advisor and replace it with salesperson. Then remember Garth’s advice.

#25 Will on 10.17.11 at 11:43 pm

@Doe Dilly so all we need to do is build empty cities and are economy will be on the path to growth again? Why did no one tell us this?

@vyw if you believe they can do that, than inflation is clearly a source of unlimited wealth for all with no negative consequences.

#26 Van Isle Renter on 10.17.11 at 11:43 pm

#18 timmy on 10.17.11 at 11:09 pm

Hurry up already, I’ve been waiting seven years. I now have a huge downpayment, but if we have a slow , grindnig erosion, why would I buy into a falling market? I may have to wait another five years…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Maybe you won’t be waiting as long as you think. Once the bankers wake up and realize that the down payment has been vaporized and their clients are actually deadbeats they will exercise any one of the million or so clauses in a mortgage document that give them the power of God and do something like…. oh… ask for more $$$.

Yep…. that’ll do it.

#27 sam.i.am on 10.17.11 at 11:47 pm

smoking man following in the footsteps of gene ray the timecube guy

#28 rw on 10.17.11 at 11:48 pm

Investing during a crisis

http://www.economist.com/node/21532286/print

#29 smoking man on 10.17.11 at 11:49 pm

Bad nows. Wife punched me in the nose took our fav dog and fd of tonight. She’s nuts. Or am I. Some one is seeing a shrink soon I’m out south side johneeys getting shit faced. She don’t like me blog in. Sitting at bar with a luch my new best bud. Dan da dad da. O well buds no matter how they smell are cool. Never been so happy wife is nuts made me nuts truth been e mascilated long ago. Th

e smoking man the guy I invented released me. Garth blog caputered. All

#30 Smoking Man's Compensating for a Lack of... on 10.17.11 at 11:50 pm

Smoking Man.

You hate the teachers, Squid hates the realtors, others hate the doomers and the gold bugs…

Seems everyone hates someone or something…

Here’s the deal. You asked in a previous post why students don’t know what bonds are, and then blamed it on the teachers.

Seriously? Are you enough of a dip sh*t that you don’t realize it isn’t the teachers who create the curriculae for the schools? It’s the province. The government…
Draw whatever conclusions you want from that, but put the blame where it truly belongs.

I’m a Social Worker. I work for the province. Here’s what I can tell you about yourself. Men who need prostitutes have serious underlying emotional issues. They don’t pay for sex because they have money to flaunt. They pay for it because they feel inadequate and can’t commit to a real relationship with a real woman. They lack the confidence to have a real woman. They don’t have the “balls”.

You fit that category to a tee. You also don’t have the testicles that you say others lack. If you did, you wouldn’t be constantly soothing yourself with booze. You wouldn’t be constantly trying to impress people with what you know. You wouldn’t be predicting downward trends that half the world already knows about 8 hours before the markets open… Or lying about your womanizing prowess or programming skills.

Do I know what the symbols at the begining of your e-mail mean? Yeah. They mean sh*t. Do I give a rat’s ass? Nah. Do I see “batman” in everything? No. Nor do I see Bob Truman in everything like Squid does… Such a waste…

If anything Smoking Man, I truly feel sorry for you. You come here night after night, to desperately try to prove yourself to others. To put women down. To blame them for feminizing men… To tell others they don’t have a brain and are slaves. You are the slave.
You think you are getting a rise out of me? No. I’m having fun putting you in your place. That’s it man. I’m a Social Worker. I ain’t Mother Theresa.

Most of the men and women here, they just laugh at you man. They draw amusement from your sad state. They feel better about themselves when they can laugh at someone like you. You are the class clown that I egged on in school because I knew that you would get in sh*t when I put you up to it, but that I wasn’t going to be punished.

You think people really mean it when they say “Smoking Man, you’re the bomb!”

Go on believing is Smoking Man. You’re the best. Did you hear the one about the agnostic insomniac dyslexic? He used to lay awake at night, pissed out of his tree, dissing religion and everyone who called him out as the liar he was…

#31 Smoking Man's Compensating for a Lack of... on 10.17.11 at 11:52 pm

And then there was the agnostic insomniac dyslexic who used to lay awake at night, wondering if there really was a dog…

#32 smoking man on 10.17.11 at 11:55 pm

Wife is gone zoo. Ha o well got to save the world on my. Own

#33 HouseBuster on 10.17.11 at 11:57 pm

Housing is done.

#34 LH on 10.18.11 at 12:00 am

Re: #7 Smoking Man

CAN 1.5 09/13/2014 Govt
T 1.75 11/01/2016 Govt

don’t exist.

Are you an equities trader?

PS: I agree, all defined benefit plans (“Teachers” included) are f***ed

CANADA-GOV’T I/L CAN4 1/4 12/01/21 139.5540/139.8060 (0.28/0.26)

That’s right, 0.27% real yield (e.g. after “cost of living adjustments”) for the next ten years.

Say buh-bye to fat pensions in their fifties!

#35 LH on 10.18.11 at 12:02 am

PS: Garth, what do you think about Seg Funds in this day and age? You harped them in your book but with 1) equity vol at elevated levels
2) long-term rates near generational lows
does this product still make sense, given the 10Y lock up?

#36 NFN_NLN on 10.18.11 at 12:05 am

#15 Doe Dilly on 10.17.11 at 10:57 pm

What exactly is a ‘bust’ in Dubai? I have engineering friends working in the mideast and here is how they define the Dubai bust…hotel occupany rate down to 85% from 99%. That is not a bust.

Is this a bust?

Take the world’s tallest building, the Burj Dubai, which remains under construction. In the last month prices there dropped at least 50 percent.

House prices on the man-made Palm – the iconic frond-shaped island colony – down 40 percent.

A seven bedroom villa? $10 million last year, under $6 million now.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/02/eveningnews/main4696300.shtml?source=RSSattr=World_4696300

#37 smoking man on 10.18.11 at 12:07 am

Beach girl I’m about to be single after 30 years. Let’s fk. Ok garth play the big delete button

#38 Stevenson on 10.18.11 at 12:08 am

Conspiracy theory? The media is out there working with the government to mislead us and protect us by hiding the truth. Shhh… the aliens are coming.

#39 Stevenson on 10.18.11 at 12:19 am

#18 timmy

It’s blind leading the blind.

#40 blase on 10.18.11 at 12:23 am

Am I the only one who gets Waterloo Resident’s sarcasm? Value Village? Keep it up, I enjoy it.

#41 ottawa pete on 10.18.11 at 12:23 am

Smoking Man *IS* Beach Girl

#42 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.18.11 at 12:26 am


“. . . not quite formed yet from the birth canal, Realtors, 1. Media, 0.” — It will be tied soon, as both are in the same bed!

“Sales climbing. Balanced market. No bubble. Strengthened activity. Not really. Here’s why. Highest level. Advancing prices. Wall-to-wall sunshine, dudes. Housing’s hot!” — The deck chairs are being re-arranged even as we speak.

“The economy’s uncertain and concerning. F is warning of a Europe-fueled crisis.” — Quoting The Doors, “The future’s uncertain and the end is always near.” Which sums up the west’s situation quite nicely!
*
#222 The thing in the basement on 10.17.11 at 10:08 pm — Thanks for the update. I do get the distinct feeling that the vast majority of people couldn’t care less anymore, as they’ve lost so much there’s nothing left to lose. Cheers!

#6 T.O. Bubble Boy — If China does crash, that is when they cash in all their IOUs from the US. Things are getting mighty interesting!

#16 Coho — Curious how many off-the-cuff things are taking place now. Realizing how sneaky govts. all over are, the main thing is to see how close to Iran the west is getting, as that will bring in Russia and China.
*
The rich get poorer? Sounds very much like propaganda disinfo.; Life’s Basics are harder to come by; Increasing Homelessness across Europe; This mess explained a lot more easily; Pension Castle or what’s left of it; Downsizing in the US, Smoke ‘n’ Fog and Eurozone Hole, and everyone’s falling through the cracks; SEC can’t regulate anymore. Don’t say they’ve gone belly-up as well?

Emotions, esp. negative ones (most are negative) can turn lives around like flipping a coin; Soros was the one who pushed Obama to quash the 2nd Amendment only a few months ago, and he seems to have ready-made m$m shills ready to pump falsities; Libya Les, damned lies and NATO; Radioactive Suits Work-clothes is a better term; Spain Withdrawing its F-18’s from NATO’s force in Libya. Be interesting if other NATO countries started pulling out. Anyone can see this is a case of bullying, but look here — Which explains why Spain has decided to leave the war; 10:25 clip Shadows of the Future.

1883 A long time ago, bit it could happen again; Psychopaths (the elite) running the Tea Party? Kamikaze drones The Pentagon seems to have plenty for new weapons; Libya NATO crimes; Mercenaries Taking the rest of Libya’s weapons.

#43 palebird on 10.18.11 at 12:46 am

#15 this is precisely the issue..we do not need anymore “stuff”. Because the majority of it is junk.But that’s ok because soon most people won’t be able to afford to buy “stuff” anymore and will get back to basics or reality as it is sometimes referred to..

#44 terces on 10.18.11 at 12:46 am

I love skimming through the postings on this site. Hilarious, insightful…….
Ahh, but my brain is pretty fried by this time of night, and I don’t even bother trying to read the long drawn out posts like the one from Mr Smoking man. It is like dark matter.
Please, it would be appreciated if you wannabe novelists would just offer a quick opinion instead of the prattle.

#45 BongBoy on 10.18.11 at 12:49 am

I finally sold my condo. I need some advice on what to o with the money. I’m not really familiar with investments. I have done gic’s in the past. I have approx 100k to put away until I get back into the RE. Any suggestions people?

Thanks,

#46 Van guy waiting on 10.18.11 at 12:54 am

Timmy:

Look, if you didn’t sit on your ass for 7 years, you could of bought in 2005, sold in 2011, and would of made big $. Then after the crash, u buy and have a paid off home. The last 10 years have given canadians a chance to make big, or end up in a gastown alley.

#47 BPOE on 10.18.11 at 1:20 am

David Foot was pounding the table in the 1990’s telling people to get out of real estate because all the boomers were getting old and had to sell which would cause prices to sell. David Foot= Harry Dent in the US dead wrong on all fronts
****************************************
dd on 10.17.11 at 11:08 pm
David Foot has a different take on housing in Canada.

“For one thing, he sees good support for housing prices in the suburbs as young adults who own urban condos trade up to bigger homes where they can raise a family.

“There’s quite a bit of opportunity for these twentysomethings to be moving out of the cities and continuing to grow the suburbs,” he said. “It’s supportive to the suburban housing market.”

#48 MEL on 10.18.11 at 1:36 am

I have ‘stopped’ listening to the media long….time ago.
All of them are full of air. No meaning, just to make it confusing for the average person, who by the way, rather listen to the ‘experts’ then to do research on their own.

By the way, our Finance minister better stop preaching
to the world about finances and debt. In the next few years, he is going to need tax payer’s help to finance the financially hopeless homeowners.

#49 Not Wondering Anymore on 10.18.11 at 1:38 am

#16 Coho

Absolutely correct.

Thanks for summarizing so concisely and accurately.

#50 Tamsen on 10.18.11 at 1:41 am

Over the Thanksgiving holidays we visited a friend who just built a home in Riverstone Pointe development on the outskirts of St. Albert, Alberta (bedroom community to Edmonton). We noticed many houses had For Sale signs while driving around this development.

This is apparently a spec home that was first listed for 2.2 million, is now at 1.65 million and has been on the market for approx. three years:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10778234&PidKey=1969932987

Nice home, but for 1.65 million it’s no mansion or even a Mcmansion, in my opinion. I mentioned that I wouldn’t pay more than $500,000 for it. My friend, who has a similar size house in the same development, defends the list price, saying that it should sell for over a million dollars because that’s what it cost him to build there, including the $250,000 – $350,000 lot price (the lots were previously a farmer’s field). Besides, he said, the list price is simply replacement cost. I argued that properties in many U.S. states are definitely not selling at replacement cost now and he replied that Alberta would never suffer the same fate as the U.S. because they have the tar sands …

Thought I would share another delusional Canadian (or maybe just naiive?) and ridiculously priced real estate story with everybody.

#51 Peter Pan on 10.18.11 at 1:58 am

CON Men used to be known as “Confidence Men”, because they knew by gaining someone’s trust, they could rob their marks blind…

That’s why CREA keeps blowing smoke up all the MSM’s backside… to keep the “confidence” game going…

#52 Math is Fun on 10.18.11 at 2:07 am

Keep ’em coming Garth! A relative (not by blood thank god) just learned a concrete box like his sold for $70k or 14.8% less than he listed his for south of Richards St.

Reality bites…but so does Realty.

#53 Daystar on 10.18.11 at 2:22 am

Excellent piece once again, Garth.

Naturally, as all bubbles burst, there is a sequence of events. With the media and listen to what Garth is saying here, its textbook just like what happened in the U.S., the first thing media does is lie about how the real estate market is doing. They are telling us real estate is doing well when its not.

When the U.S. RE bubble burst, the exact same thing happened with media reporting the opposite of what was really happening for close to a full year. Its true, all a matter or record, still in print for those who wish to look it up.

After a year or so of lies, telling the public that the housing market was strong while homes went unsold, inventories soared and bankrupcy filings set new records, the numbers could no longer be denied so what did media do? Lied about how bad the numbers were, downplaying the seriousness of it. How effective was this propaganda from media in the U.S.?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg

Lehman brothers, Washington Mutual, they didn’t collapse until 08′ but why couldn’t people see it coming… in a word, media propaganda. In 05′, the numbers declaring bankrupcies were coming in at records so fast, congress changed Chapter 7 bankrucy laws delaying the inevidable:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States

But personal bankruptcy numbers should have said it all before then. Why was it all a shock to see giants like Lehman brothers, Washington Mutual and Freddy and Fanny go under while personal bankrupcies soared in 05′ and the only solution by congress was make it extremely hard to declare bankrucy and delay the inevidable?

When GWB took over the whitehouse, interest rates hit rock bottom and the housing boom was on for developers, realtors, flippers and the like. How great was the pace of overdevelopment? Between 02′ and 05′, 10% of the population had brand new homes built for themselves over a 3 year period. (someone should dare me to source it, don’t have the time, kind of tired, but I’m quite certain what I just said is true, I’ll look for proof tomarrow if time allows but in the meantime, let it sink in what I just said) Along came 2005 and rate hikes hitting the late, great U.S. credit expansion fueled by sub-prime, ARM’s and whatever else greedy bankers could think of to get the creditless more worthy and when interest rates soared in 2005… crickets.

What did U.S. media do about the noise of crickets and the deterioration of U.S. housing? They lied.

Bald faced.

What did U.S. media do in 2006 when the numbers were so ugly, they became undeniable? Media lied to everyone about how bad it was, citing how congress had fixed the nations bankrupcy problems and now that the numbers were low, it meant things were well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_Abuse_Prevention_and_Consumer_Protection_Act_of_2005

Why did media lie to everyone for what was it… from the summer of 05′ until the summer of 08’… almost 3 years of deny and downplay the ongoing U.S. housing meltdown? Media revenue from real estate advertising among other revenue streams… i.e., their own financial bottom line. What else?

What still kind of surprises me is why people in Canada for some reason still think “its different here”.

I hate to break it to homeowners in Canada but the market has turned and unless F utterly blows it even moreso than he already has and introduces 50 year nothing down amortizations like prudent, flourishing Spain, we’ve got a long, ugly housing correction unfolding in markets everywhere across Canada with interest rates poised to be the true sinker and all the while, expect the media to lie to the masses bald faced! Expect this, because until it gets to the point of liable, its in their best interest to lie, lie, lie and when caught, deny, deny, deny until they can no longer legally do so. By that time, the markets will have exhausted the last of the fools and the liars of today will be spinning words of “recovery” tomarrow. It amazes me how some still have yet to hear this old worn out record for the first time…

#54 karlhungus on 10.18.11 at 2:29 am

Timmy, depending on where you are, you shouldn’t wait any longer if you have a fair sized down payment. Garth skews his facts, (see the post about comparing a 10 year period in the US to a 5 year period in Canada). If you want to own your own home, go for it. You wont regret it and after the sale, you wont think about it any more and you can concentrate on other areas of life.

#55 Humpty Dumpty on 10.18.11 at 2:50 am

Truth is, Canada has achieved home ownership saturation

Dare I say “bubble”… Pop… Here comes all the kings men

“F is warning of a Europe-fueled crisis”

Those damn Europeans! “Off with their heads”. Burn all of the realtors and reporters too. I mean the witches…

People never ever forget, they couldn’t put all of pieces together again…

Peace.

#56 Waterloo Resident on 10.18.11 at 2:59 am

Okay, if anyone bought shares in stocks a few days ago, I think its time to SELL on Tuesday.

From what I see, it looks as if prices have peaked and will be heading down. All of my chart indicators are screaming “SELL” now, so I’m placing some sell-stops and we will see if they get sold or not tomorrow.

#57 pathcontrolmonk on 10.18.11 at 3:23 am

I just got off Skype with a friend who sells BC lumber to Asia, he said since July they haven’t been able to sell any lumber to China. Zero new orders. I asked him about the article in the Vancouver Sun that said “record shipments” and he attributed that to fulfillment of old orders. He said he expects the exports of soft wood to China to tumble a minimum of 50% with most, if not all, exports for 2012 also just being back orders. He said they will still find new buyers for the wood in other markets, but his Chinese buyers have stopped returning his calls.

http://www.vancouversun.com/softwood+lumber+shipments+2011+already+eclipse+last+year+record+minister/5559166/story.html

#58 Edmonton Man on 10.18.11 at 3:50 am

As far as housing prices go here in Edmonton, the latest MLS numbers show a $14,000 decline from June to September for SFHs. Doesn’t sound like much but that puts us at September 2006 prices levels. And, interest is almost HALF the rate it was 5 years ago as the US credit bubble hadn’t really popped yet!
If we don’t see it this winter, I suspect that next winter will be a really cold Retail Sales Christmas, in addition to RE Estate sales & automotive Sales.
I don’t know about other parts of the country, but in Northern Alberta we are really getting hit hard with Grocery prices soaring again. My Grocery bills are up about 100% more than they were 15 years ago, Electric (since the Conservative Gov’t deregualted here in ALberta) up 300% since 1996. Rent up about 100% and housing up 250%. Wages up 35%. I think we can see which item is at an unsustainable high and WILL come down! We can’t live on Lines OF Credit forever, Specially here in Alberta, since like B.C. we have the highest amount of consumer debt anywhere in the G-20!

#59 Jonny on 10.18.11 at 4:29 am

1 hour east of T.O. a house down the street from me has been on the market for 6 months, started out at $499,000, then $479,000, then $449,000, now $429,000. How low will it go? This is just one example of the stalling market out here! A year ago it would have sold in the first week.

#60 D on 10.18.11 at 4:39 am

CREA “And at the same time sales are down across the country (not up, as reported – they’ve fallen 2.6% since January), listings have mushroomed in most areas.”

How can the CREA just keep getting away with lie after lie and skewing the numbers to the public? Are they not under “REALTOR ethics” or any moral obligation other money?

Shouldn’t they be held financially responsible for the misleading data they give out to the dwindling amount of buyers out there?

Garth, anyone?

#61 wtf????? on 10.18.11 at 5:16 am

DELETED

#62 Crazy on 10.18.11 at 5:23 am

Garth,

Point is, the price is up since last year. Real estate values have to fluctuate. But whether it is convienient or not, these latest numbers indicate a positive move.

#63 Beach Girl on 10.18.11 at 5:25 am

rp1 on 10.17.11 at 3:29 pm

#123 skyfalling: “It is better to enjoy life, spend time with family or your pet, give and help others. Life is too short to spend time worrying what’s going to happen.”

____

I heard a lot of that from the US in 2005-2007. It didn’t help families tossed into the street. Is there no end to the self-serving bullshit?

____

FUNNY again. No one will say what they really mean. Again, people who don’t care about money, don’t have any.

What a horrible waste of time. Went to Casino Rama with one of my idiot (sons). The majority of people there are old, ugly, in walkers or just generally F***Ked UP. The buffet was nice enough. Everyone going on about what a good deal the $5 buffet is, when they are dropping all kinds of money.

Smoking Man, how can you possibly think this is entertainment. You being so intelligent and all. Not being mean, just curious.

#64 smoking man, the insomniac's cure on 10.18.11 at 5:36 am

thx man

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

#65 Ken5421 on 10.18.11 at 5:52 am

very interesting. The global debt clock. Found it on the Economist:

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

cheers

Ken

#66 Rudolf on 10.18.11 at 5:57 am

Realtors and their powerful organizations have been very successful in manipulating the Canadian real estate market unchallenged for about a century.

Whether times were good or bad, they always found a self-serving gimmick to sell properties. Currently they are misleading naive first time buyers that a sixty-year-old bungalow located in a rundown Toronto neighbourhood is a bargain of the century for only $595,000 plus $45,000 in repair requirements.

But it is even more conniving that there are still unscrupulous lenders around willing to finance the insane purchase even though they know already that the misled borrower might be in financial trouble soon.

#67 Off the river on 10.18.11 at 6:08 am

Hey Great Fool! You any realation to Motely Fool?

#68 Young Old Fart on 10.18.11 at 6:14 am

#18 timmy

If you are worried about a falling market and you have a good down payment, start looking at properties you like that have been on the market for months and submit offers at 20% below ask. Then don’t budge and be willing to walk away….. If you are buying long term, there is your piece of mind….

#69 Longterm on 10.18.11 at 6:28 am

Waterloo resident: One American at Value Village does not a deluge make. You don’t just walk across the border and get a job in another country without a valid visa / work permit and then a SIN. Work visas are controlled very tightly and rationed and distributed to people with particular qualifications under the NAFTA. The till at Value Village isn’t on that list.

dd: Anyone who says ‘grow the suburbs’ needs to be ignored.

S: I experienced the same thing here in London in the UK back in 2006. A 25 year old estate agent who had been selling property for 3 years telling me that I needed to buy now or I’d never get on the ‘property ladder’ and the fact that I’d spent 15 minutes each viewing 11 one or two bed flats all in the £250k range [at that time about $600k CDN] and not yet bought was evidence that I was just not serious. I never did buy after crunching the numbers [interest alone on the mortgage would have been £125 more than my monthly rent, not to mention principle, council tax, insurance, repairs, utilities] and seeing an income to house price graph in The Economist. I can safely say that she is now unemployed as her agency went bankrupt and I saved myself and my wife from financial ruin. Instead we used our deposit to create a well designed liquid portfolio that we added to for several more years and then managed 14 months of round the world travel and now we rent a nice place in London where the landlord, who couldn’t sell after listing for 6 months, fixes the boiler and takes our rent [negotiated down from his asking price] with no deposit and 5 weeks notice. Given our liquid, mobile situation we’ve decided to leave the flat in December, visit family in Calgary and then spend three months of the winter in a warm, cheap place before returning in the spring to this or another rental [I will propose to the landlord that we keep the flat but don’t pay rent from Jan-March and I am confident he will go for it] all while banking dividends and bond income.

Garth: I just got your book. Thanks for the personal note / signing.

#70 Ted on 10.18.11 at 6:49 am

Here’s an interesting observation Mr. Turner…perhaps even helpful.

The premise upon which you build your accurate assessment of the real estate market is flawed.

It’s flawed by the very same thing that led to your defeat in the House of Commons.

It’s also the flaw in thinking that allowed the Harper Thugs to attain majority status.

Simply put…people are stupid. They far far prefer hearing lies that they like instead of truths that they don’t like.

It’s hard to imagine a thug like Harper achieving majority on the heels of a very real Contempt of Parliament charge. Yet it happened because people were told people lies that they wanted to hear.

It’s hard to imagine people racing out to indenture themselves to an overpriced house. And yet they do, because they eagerly embrace lies that they want to hear.

It’s hard to imagine that a minor bureaucrat could be parachuted into a riding without consultation or consent and end up stealing that riding from a very qualified and hard working MP. Yet spoon fed fabrications and untruths were gobbled up because the lies were what the people wanted to hear.

All three of these events (and many more as I am sure you know) prove beyond a doubt that people much prefer happy lies to ugly truths.

The housing bubble survives on this fact and will likely continue to thrive.

Happy Lies will always beat ugly truths.

Always.

I have no regret standing for my beliefs. Nor will I cease. — Garth

#71 David B on 10.18.11 at 6:56 am

Another issue to act to mixture is ….. Senior Boomers turning age 65 (250/day) are selling out and moving back to home province (renting) via the divorce route fueling yet another house for sale on the block.

And for what it is worth Ms. Lagarde said not to expect a major fix in Europe on the 26th and the WSJ this morning is saying there is big trouble at the roots of the Stock Market coupled to yet another fix in plan for US underwater mortgages .

Pay down debt, invest wisely and enjoy the Canadian Fall.

The world will continue to go around “One day at a Time”

100% sure thing …. trust me!

#72 Drake on 10.18.11 at 7:01 am

Strange things happening with the MLS for the Windsor area. It goes days without any new listings (try running from the 16th, no listings). Looks like they might be holding back listings.

#73 Drake on 10.18.11 at 7:13 am

Never mind, they’ve just put them up. They seem to be only adding listings every other day now, sometimes, once every three days. Seems odd, no?

#74 pbrasseur on 10.18.11 at 7:39 am

“Truth is, Canada has achieved home ownership saturation” – Garth

That sums it up pretty well. SFH being now too expensive for most the industry is building condos by the thousands, once that market is saturated (we’re close to that if not already there) the great descent will really begin.

#75 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 7:46 am

Went to the ACC yesterday to watch the leafs lose again.
I went with a RE agent, a project manager for a medium sized builder and an inside housing inspector for a suburb town of the GTA.

On the way from union station through the detour to main gates ,their is drywall partition and on it there are posters describing construction work taking place showing underground pedestrian walkways and businesses etc.that will be built under fully supported subway system and trains.

RE agent turns te me and says as we are walking quote ” see ,that is why T.O RE is so expensive, they are improving it” unquote. I said nothing as I did not want to get into an argument (this time) and ruin the night.

On the way home on subway platform, Project manager bumps into pretty girl he knows who partimes as a hostess for one of the boxes. Guess what, she is studying to get her RE licence..no joke . I resisted any comments .

Until this F&^%in RE bubble finally f%$^in busts no F^%$in way Garth’s ‘bleating’ or any other RE bears on this pathetically small blog, mine or otherwise ,gonna change the RE humping ,obsessive nature of this hillbilly town Brad Lamb calls the ‘next manhatten’ or it’s outhouse, bipolar double Vancouver.

#76 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.18.11 at 7:50 am

@ #17 dd

David Foot has a different take on housing in Canada.

“For one thing, he sees good support for housing prices in the suburbs as young adults who own urban condos trade up to bigger homes where they can raise a family.

“There’s quite a bit of opportunity for these twentysomethings to be moving out of the cities and continuing to grow the suburbs,” he said. “It’s supportive to the suburban housing market.”

Do you work for Mattamy Homes or something?

First issue: twenty-somethings can’t afford those downtown condos anymore.

Second issue: if condos aren’t going up 5%-10% a year, those twenty-somethings with zero equity won’t become thirty-year-old with $100,000.

Third issue: the suburban sprawl experiment is slowing down – traffic is as bad as ever, services are not getting any better (Councillors just voted to cut transit in Mississauga to avoid big property tax hikes), and in general the “suburban dream” peddled by home developers (and Boomers) is being exposed for what it is: cheap housing in the middle of nowhere.

#77 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 7:57 am

Pump, pump pump pump !!!

http://torontoism.com/2011/08/27/why-the-toronto-real-estate-bubble-has-not-burst/

That was ‘written’ by the president of TREB. Big surprise. — Garth

#78 smoking man on 10.18.11 at 7:57 am

What is so cool about getting smashed on a mon night reading what you wrote. Wow. Need to stop frinking or bloging. Bye all think it tiomew for rehab again. What a hang over

#79 smoking man on 10.18.11 at 7:59 am

What is so cool about getting smashed on a mon night reading what you wrote. Wow. Need to stop frinking or bloging. Bye all think it tiomew for rehab again. What a hang over

Done blogging dine drinking. Its been fun

#80 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.18.11 at 8:04 am

Interesting… if Goldman Sachs can’t make money anymore, who can?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44932656

#81 Ray MacDonald on 10.18.11 at 8:06 am

A couple of anecdotes, not that they prove or infer much.
(1) I’ve watched with interest as the delusional owners of my former home in Georgetown tried to sell it over the past 5 months. After a starting with a ridiculous asking price and changing realtors (both of the realtors out of town and not knowing the market) they gradually cut the price by $70K until it was in the ballpark at least. It’s gone from MLS now so I assume they sold it.
(2) In my small street of fairly new bungalows in my tiny Eastern Ontario town, three have been up for sale in 2011. One sat for months, was reduced in price a couple of times and now is rented. Another is vacant and the owners are in seniors’ assisted living apartments. They also have reduced the price and need another one to sell. A third is hugely overpriced by the speculator owners who hope to make a killing and move out to a country estate. Right.
All of these places would have sold in a week or so in 2007, since they are nice retirement sized places in a comfortable small town. Balanced market, they say?

Monitoring your former property is like stalking an old girlfriend. — Garth

#82 Moneta on 10.18.11 at 8:07 am

Kayak Freddy on 10.17.11 at 11:28 pm
———–
Greece probably won’t be the destabilizer. Chances are it’s going to be a less visible country like Latvia or something.

They could decide to drop the currency peg, then all the loans taken with the carry trade will become unsurmountable and Sweden will take a hit.

It could be Japan… the buyers for their debt is dwindling. Things aren’t looking to swell there, yet no one can even imagine worse.

There are so many distressed players, it’s not funny.

As players win while others suffer, tension will rise. It’s going to get worse. People who think leaders will get along are deluded. Already you still have a large segment of the population that does not get OWS. It just shows you how out of touch many people are.

Misperceptions, miscommunications and injustice… that’s what wars are made of.

#83 Aussie Roy on 10.18.11 at 8:13 am

Aussie Update

China

If Satyajit Das is right, China will end up writing off its $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves. Europe is shambling toward Japanese-style growth. And a day of reckoning is at hand for creditors and debtors alike.

“Europeans are going to have to recapitalise their banks,” Das said as we discussed the sovereign-debt crisis and his new book, “Extreme Money,” over coffee in a Brussels hotel. “You have made bad loans; you’re going to have to write them off. That is the one axiomatic law of making a bad loan.”

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/china-will-write-off-its-3t-foreign-reserves-das-20111018-1lx1a.html#ixzz1b8Pqu2wQ

Australian shares give up much of yesterday’s solid gains after investor concerns about Europe’s debt crisis flared anew overnight.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/weak-chinese-growth-weighs-on-shares-20111018-1lu0l.html#ixzz1b8PzZCaZ

#84 Moneta on 10.18.11 at 8:22 am

And for what it is worth Ms. Lagarde said not to expect a major fix in Europe on the 26th and the WSJ this morning is saying there is big trouble at the roots of the Stock Market coupled to yet another fix in plan for US underwater mortgages
—–
Our leaders know entitlements need to get cut.

They’re not going to able to cut as long as markets are holding up because as long as they stay up there is hope. For people to accept the cuts, times need to be tough.

Just a thought.

#85 Aussie Roy on 10.18.11 at 8:22 am

Aussie Update

Australias central bank – RBA

Ultimately the boom goes too far and collapses under the weight of debt and of unrealistic expectations. Crises might not be predictable, but they are all too imaginable.

So instead of looking for the unimaginable black swan, I would advocate observing those attitudes and behaviours, as well as the data. And the test I would apply is inspired by another member of Australia’s weird and wonderful fauna – the platypus. You see, when Europeans first saw a black swan, it would have been a surprise, but I doubt it rocked their world. There are plenty of other cases where the same species of animal is a different colour in different regions. But the platypus is strange. It is a mammal, but it has a duck’s bill; it is the only mammal with venomous spurs; it lays eggs; and it is a monotreme. When European scientists first saw the stuffed body of a platypus, they found it so bizarre that they thought it was a fake.

http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2011/sp-so-131011.html

What does a Platypus look like ?. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=innjUqxG6Aw

Steve Keen Interview

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/10/15/renegade-economist-interview/

#86 Moneta on 10.18.11 at 8:28 am

Third issue: the suburban sprawl experiment is slowing down – traffic is as bad as ever, services are not getting any better (Councillors just voted to cut transit in Mississauga to avoid big property tax hikes), and in general the “suburban dream” peddled by home developers (and Boomers) is being exposed for what it is: cheap housing in the middle of nowhere.
———
As long as housing is unaffordable downtown, the young will be forced to the burbs.

Anybody poopooing the burbs is blind to the cause.

The coming issue with the burbs will not be an exodus back to the city but more people living in the same house as some go empty.

#87 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 8:50 am

Garth to Bigrider in #77- ” this was written by president of Treb -big surprise”

Yes I know, that is why I started with pumpX4.

We really need prices to take a hit because all we are doing on this blog is crying wolf and the sheep still grazing the hills…none running for the sheppard Garth or his dogs yet.

#88 SinOrSwim on 10.18.11 at 8:54 am

Long time reader first time poster in Mississauga.

We found our greater fool in Feb 2008 and sold for over 1m. Rented a brand new house that was for sale for over 2m. The wait has been longer than planned, however, I agree with Mr. Turner’s assesment and opinions on the economy.

Mr. Smokingman is a wise, intelligent and funny guy. His posts include some very good life lessons. Most readers may not understand the secrets revealed in his posts because most people are busy “thinking” they are living the dream.

The education system is a complete failure for a number of reasons. If students were taught to be independant thinkers, they would understand life’s true meaning.

Keep up the good work Mr. Turner and Smokingman forget the booze and enjoy the herb!

Garth, I got 600K to spend I know I have to wait a little longer. I have this dream to buy a farm just NW of Caledon or a small house/condo/townhouse in Port Credit. Should I even consider a property outside of Toronto?

Of course. It’s vultch time on the GTA fringe. — Garth

#89 willi on 10.18.11 at 8:56 am

Hi Garth,just wanted to let you know,there are plenty of renters (ajax)but i can’t help them all. Rentel income is way better then the stock market…but a sweet Gov. indexed pension for life,for only six years of work still sounds nice.

#90 Ted on 10.18.11 at 8:57 am

Happy Lies will always beat ugly truths.

Always.

I have no regret standing for my beliefs. Nor will I cease. — Garth

Well Mr. Turner, I never suggested that you cease to stand up for what you believe in.

But its goes without saying that here on your blog you are preaching to the choir. Sadly, the rest of the country is, and will remain, blissfully ignorant and very happy to believe the lies.

I admire the fact that you stand firm in your beliefs (which I share incidentally).

Tenacity in the face of all odds.

“Good on ya” as my Aussie friends say.

#91 Marc L on 10.18.11 at 9:10 am

Hey Smoking Man

I see an opportunity for you. That social worker (#30) that gave you the straight goods. If she has any empathy left for you. Perhaps you can hire her to help you solve your problems. ie: No life, NPD, Sociopathy, Multiple Personality Disorder (beach girl), alcoholism, drug addiction, prostitution addiction, ASPD, anxiety, neurosis, killing small animals, and who knows what else.

Just some sound advice…

By the way, when you go to the casino as Beach Girl, do you dress in drag?

All the best

#92 disciple on 10.18.11 at 9:13 am

#70 Ted… there is one major flaw in your logic which I would like to point out. You say that people are stupid, which is only partly true. They are not stupid, they are simply misinformed. There is a difference. And you prove it by mentioning that they are fed lies. But you do not continue your analysis to realize WHY they are fed lies and by WHOM.

By cutting short your analysis to where you feel comfortable, you are participating in the misinformation, which is either hypocritical, or dare I say it, STUPID. Do you not agree that if they are not fed lies in the first place, then that would cut down on the stupidity? Weeds must be plucked out by the roots.

#93 Shawn on 10.18.11 at 9:18 am

Garth,

I just recently started reading your blog and many of the comments following your daily posts are indeed pathetic. I’ll continue to enjoy reading your daily blog but give up trying to find intelligent life beyond it.

Thanks for your effort.

#94 cxcroney on 10.18.11 at 9:22 am

Just read about the justifiable tasering of an 11 year old armed with a pen. CREA has way more ways to do harm at their disposal. I say TASER them! Oh, and give Smoking Man/ Woman a jolt too just to be on the safe side… for his/her own good.

#95 Hammer1 on 10.18.11 at 9:27 am

#75 bigrider
Until this F&^%in RE bubble finally f%$^in busts no F^%$in way Garth’s ‘bleating’ or any other RE bears on this pathetically small blog, mine or otherwise ,gonna change the RE humping ,obsessive nature of this hillbilly town Brad Lamb calls the ‘next manhatten’ or it’s outhouse, bipolar double Vancouver.
============================
i’m glad you got that off your chest..and verbalized beautifully what so many here are feeling.
Let’s all go out and scream into a mailbox !

#96 disciple on 10.18.11 at 9:35 am

Stupid or misinformed?

For example, you are ten years old, sitting in your desk at school, and the teacher tells you about dinosaurs. Would you ever suspect that the information he or she is feeding you is composed of half-truths, regurgitated fairy tales, and outright lies? Of course not. Does that make you stupid? Of course not.

Thank your lucky stars that you have disciple, to tell you that those re-constructions you see in museums are fancy flights of imagination using plaster and bone fragments from EXISTING species, or morphologically related species from the near past that were simply bigger than they are now.

Why would you be fed lies on an innocuous subject like this? Who would do this to you, a defenseless ten year old wanting to know the truth about the past? Sadly, most never get to this level of inquisition, let alone, wisdom, not because they are stupid, but because their innate human quality of curiosity has been destroyed.

#97 eaglebay - Parksville on 10.18.11 at 9:42 am

Municipal elections next month in BC.
There are signs everywhere.
Whom should I vote for? ReMax or Royal Lepage?

#98 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 9:52 am

#95 Hammer1-to Bigrider.

Scream ?

Only one who used an exclamation point was you.

In any event, I will leave it to you to vent your frustration in an alternate mode.

#99 Beach Girl on 10.18.11 at 9:55 am

Actually, I am not Smoking Man

I too, have woken up from a horrifying night at Rama.

Number #1 idiot (born first) woke up and said at least you liked the buffet. I said, I felt like I was at the Fred Victor Street Mission. Will never, ever do that again.

I tried to submit this post and it did not show up. I am not reposting it multiple times.

I actually donate to them. He asked me why, I said I am looking for your REAL DAD.

Keep them guessing.

Do not be too HARSH on Smoking Man. We all have our issues.

Also, a 40ish woman wanted to rent one of my apts. She was from South Carolina. She said it was so bad down there, working for Timmys would be a bonus. She left her husband and the kids, and a debt load. They are here, the broke Americans. Ready to snatch up some pensioned off Auto worker.

#100 wtf????? on 10.18.11 at 10:04 am

DELETED

#101 detalumis on 10.18.11 at 10:15 am

#76, David Foote is pretty much right when he says people hang on to their houses much longer than people think. I live in a 1960 subdivision in south Oakville surrounded by a whole whack of people that are over 80. They don’t move until they die or get placed in LTC.

There are ticky-tacky suburbs and there are “suburbs”. I see a serious movement of the young stockbrokers and what have you back from downtown into this very area. They buy up the itty-bitty bungalows on the large lots which are 30 minutes from the downtown financial district on the train so no traffic worries. They then tear down said bungalow and replace it with their stucco and stone mega-house. I can’t say the replacement houses look cheap because they don’t – the lots are large enough to support them. I see zero market downturn in this area – yet.

The problem with Toronto is that they didn’t build condos like they do in Manhattan – with a wide variety of different sizes where many are “family” style so people don’t have to move when they marry and want to raise a family. Until that happens I would say that certain suburbs will indeed remain attractive to this demographic.

#81 people don’t retire to small towns anymore, they know the health care services suck and there are no transit options when you have to hang up your car keys. There is no economy so you don’t get younger buyers either.

#102 Daisy Mae on 10.18.11 at 10:20 am

In West Kelowna, BC — single family homes, condos. No HST, no PPT, no downpayment, and an auction scheduled very soon.

http://elkridge.ca

#103 SKRenter on 10.18.11 at 10:22 am

Stupid or misinformed?

For example, you are ten years old, sitting at your dinner table at home, and your mother tells you about god. Would you ever suspect that the information she is feeding you is composed of no-truths, regurgitated fairy tales, and outright lies? Of course not. Does that make you stupid? Of course not.

Thank your lucky stars that you have SKRenter, to tell you that those re-constructions you see in your parents imagination using a fiction book and a corporate structure that ensures “donations” are made, are merely hallucinations of impressionable people.

Why would you be fed lies on an innocuous subject like this? Who would do this to you, a defenseless ten year old wanting to know the truth about the past? Sadly, most never get to this level of inquisition, let alone, wisdom, not because they are stupid, but because their innate human quality of curiosity has been destroyed.
.

#104 Daisy Mae on 10.18.11 at 10:24 am

Drats! We missed the auction….
(it was held in August, 2011)

#105 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 10:26 am

Anyway as for TREB and CREA people having the bias’s that they do toward promoting RE, just think of the fodder they will have, to fuel the ongoing notion that houses are ‘safe’ investments and stock markets being ‘risky’ ones, should(possibly) equity markets continue to decline.

So far anyway Garth, the RE roundtable you were a part of in 2010 leaves you holding the bag, considering the comment from one of the agents that said paraphrasing “people will probably be happier with their home purchase than they will with their stock market investments”

http://www.postcity.com/Post-City-Magazines/April-2010/Real-Estate-Roundtable-2010/

With all due respect Garth, the distortions low interest rates and government intervention has had on human behaviour and markets makes it impossible to ascertain for certain what the future will bring. If someone tells me that housing prices in the GTA will double from today while stock markets globally get cut in half from here ,it is as likely an outcome as the reverse. I will argue against for sure, but not with the same conviction you do.

#106 wetcoaster on 10.18.11 at 10:29 am

Looks like the wetcoast media gets Toronto’s condo crash, they are just in denial of their own. I guess we need the Toronto Star to put out something on the Vancouver real estate crash.

—————————————————————–
Toronto’s condo boom about to bust

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Toronto+condo+boom+about+bust/5567058/story.html?cid=megadrop_story

#107 eaglebay - Parksville on 10.18.11 at 10:34 am

Sprott makes a bet on a different kind of bank

#108 eaglebay - Parksville on 10.18.11 at 10:37 am

Forgot the link.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/sprott-makes-a-bet-on-a-different-kind-of-bank/article2204088/

#109 Not 1st on 10.18.11 at 10:40 am

Garth, where’s your comment about all the strong corporate earnings coming out this week. So far its a bust and the DOW has tanked. Why not just admit this corporate and consumer and jobs renaissance ain’t going to happen. Never hurts to follow the truth.

What tank? — Garth

#110 David B on 10.18.11 at 10:47 am

eaglebay – Parksville on 10.18.11 at 9:42 am
Municipal elections next month in BC.
There are signs everywhere.
Whom should I vote for? ReMax or Royal Lepage?

C’on now Garth even you must admit this one is priceless>

LOL big time……..

#111 GregW, Oakville on 10.18.11 at 10:49 am

Hi Garth, I just saw this on BNN, with a link.
Toronto condo boom won’t last: Bank of America
“, the pending “wall of inventory” that’s about to hit the Toronto condo market will lead to a correction of up to 15 percent.”
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/10/18/Toronto-condo-boom-wont-last-Bank-of-America.aspx

#112 Hammer1 on 10.18.11 at 10:51 am

#98 bigrider
I was agreeing with (liked your comment) but maybe I misunderstood it too. have a great day.

#113 Cory on 10.18.11 at 10:51 am

I can tell you one thing, Alberta’s oil patch is very very busy. I know because I am in the heart of it all. Can’t find crews, services, even the most menial service without booking a week or so in advance….and if you have to re-schedule, forget it they are gone. People are making money and spending it.

Vacancy rates on rentals have dropped, are getting harder to find quality ones, and rents are rising.

Will all that being said, I do not see real estate moving up at all. I still see alot of listings and many price drops. So while things are good here, real estate is not following suit.

#114 RL on 10.18.11 at 10:51 am

Out here in Victoria nothing but price reductions and contractors going bankrupt…

But the Real Estate Board says things are good and prices are going up.

One day there will be a Royal Enquiry into why things went so wrong, why people lost everything, and how the Real Estate Industry’s manipulation of the numbers made it all happen.

#115 Ted on 10.18.11 at 10:55 am

Those who choose to believe spoon fed lies when those lies fly in the face of VERY OBVIOUS fact….they’re not lazy, their not “misinformed”, they are just plain stupid.

Perhaps it’s just too much effort for them.

Critical thinking can be hard work but it’s truly necessary.

I admire Mr. Turner for making an effort to educate people. I really do. I suspect that it’s a pretty much thankless job, and frustrating as hell sometimes too.

Kudos Garth, for trying so damned hard.

But, aside from the faithful flock on this blog and a few stragglers, it appears to me that the majority simply couldn’t care less.

Most are far too busy drooling over granite counter tops, lusting after big screen tvs, stainless appliances, and believing a government that is an utter disgrace.

A government that they stupidly chose.

Because the majority CHOOSE to believe Happy Lies and ignore Ugly Truths. It’s WAY easier than thinking.

Harsh?

Yea, but reality bites sometimes.

I truly don’t mean to rain on anyone’s parade…so I’ll bow out now and let you get back to whatever it is you were doing.

Perhaps a group hug would be in order?

Or better yet, a long autumn ride on a Harley?

#116 disciple on 10.18.11 at 10:55 am

The core of economic genius is an exercise of imagination, seeing that what seems to be fixated and frozen can be altered. That humanity can escape the age-old sentence to nasty, short and brutish lives, that nations can make their own destinies.

I seek the conversion of capitalists, via a new economics that doesn’t see the interests of different social groups as diametrically opposed, that it is not a zero-sum game, that one does not prosper at the expense of someone else.

I am an optimist. I love technology because it can and should lead to social progress and both can be shared widely. The only obstacle is your culture and mind control of your real rulers. Break free!

#117 Devil's Advocate on 10.18.11 at 11:19 am

For crying out loud what a bunch of paranoid misinformed buffoons, thinking CREA has any influence what-so-ever on the market. What a load of crap. CREA could only wish. And fabricate stats? CREA reports the market first to it’s members, second to the public, they don’t fabricate it.

http://www.crea.ca/public/crea/who_we_are.htm

#118 Gonzo on 10.18.11 at 11:25 am

For those who are interested and live in Toronto. Tickets went on sale today:
“Be it resolved: North America faces a Japan-style era of high unemployment and slow growth”
http://www.munkdebates.com/home.aspx

#119 realitybytes on 10.18.11 at 11:39 am

Not sure wether to laugh or cringe at the MSM rollercoaster of pointlessness….

Day after day…
Stocks down on Europe debt fears
Stocks up on hopes of Europe solution
Stocks down or renewed fears of Greek default
Stocks up on proposed bail out
Market down…
market up…

Where do they get this crap and who is still taking it seriously??

If houses were traded on an exchange, you would ask the same question. — Garth

#120 realitybytes on 10.18.11 at 11:46 am

Some people (SM) need to realize that they aren’t blogging. They’re commenting on someone else’s blog, like sudo literate parrasites.

Start your own and see how many hits, comments, fans you can generate. Until then you’re just an internet forum troll, like me :)

#121 Onemorething on 10.18.11 at 11:55 am

If houses were traded on an exchange, you would ask the same question. — Garth

exactly however houses were used as investements for dummies, much easier to understand than derivatives and dont need to watch like a day trader!

And if everyone’s doing it, likelihood, like most investement vehicles, it’s overbought!

RE investors are gonna wish their homes were on the exchange!

#122 disciple on 10.18.11 at 11:56 am

Beach Girl said: “Again, people who don’t care about money, don’t have any.”

That’s funny. detalumis said yesterday “I would suggest that if you grew up in poverty you would know that money trumps personal happiness every single time. It’s actually people who have no worries about housing, food, transportation and health care costs that say that it isn’t all that important.”

So which is it?

#123 disciple on 10.18.11 at 12:07 pm

Ted, I share your frustration, I really do. But don’t give up. All of humanity is one consciousness seeking to understand itself. We are each individual parts of the whole. We are one. Yet, the sustained growth of the whole depends on the unique abilities of the individual constituents. Assigning blame alone accomplishes nothing. Light a candle, rather than (or in addition to) cursing the darkness.

#124 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 12:11 pm

#101 Detamulis.

All very good points and I have had similar thoughts.

I do not think the suburbs are ‘doomed’

#125 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 12:20 pm

#112 Hammer1.

You read it correctly and maybe I misunderstood your reply. When you said ‘shout into a mailbox’ I kind of interpreted that as sarcasm. If not intended as so, then no worries and my reply although a little sarcastic ,was not meant to be denegrating in anyway..

Best to you as well.

#126 bigrider on 10.18.11 at 12:27 pm

Garth at #119 to realitybytes- “If houses were traded on an exchange you would ask the same question”.

Exactly kind of thing I have said in the past.

Stick a neon sign on the front lawn of every home owner that flashes red numbers and green ones all f&^%ing day long as to price changes of their home and see what it does to the psyche of the home owner.

The beauty of owning RE is you can just make up a value in your head as to what it’s worth and run with it indefinitely until, of course, you need to sell, in which case reality will bite you right in the proverbial nuts.

#127 Fabrega on 10.18.11 at 12:41 pm

Smoking Man aka Smoking moron.

Get a life…dude.

#128 Peakoilist on 10.18.11 at 12:43 pm

#79 smoking man
Hey smoking man, here’s a tune for you (let’s remember Amy for the amazing artist that she was)..listen carefully to the lyrics..she even talks about losin’ her baby..I like this version with Jay-Z

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1GMOvi39Y4

#129 Jack Sprat on 10.18.11 at 12:43 pm

At #5: Waterloo Resident, can I ask what you’re getting at? Americans working in Canada? Americans taking Canadian jobs? I’m not clear. First, I need to make clear there are NOT tens of thousands of Americans moving to Canada for work month after month. The aggregated total of Americans working in all of Canada TODAY is only 30,000. A simple, one-time encounter at a Value Village with a woman from Massachusetts would not indicate any such claim. Second, may I point out there are nearly 3 MILLION Canadians currently living abroad outside of Canada. Of this 2.9 Million, nearly 825,000 are currently living in the U.S. Of this 825,000 living in the U.S., 41% of them are employed on U.S. soil, or a total of 338,000 Canadians legally taking U.S. jobs within our country. That is over 1% of your total population, which is a fairly high number. Americans have to compete just the same against Canadians in the U.S Additionally, it is estimated there are between 80,000-99,000 Canadians living/working illegally in the U.S. today. Americans working in Canada are less than 10% of the aggregate number of Canadians working legally in the U.S., and the U.S. population is 10 times the size of Canada’s. Do the numbers and you’ll see Americans working in Canada is microscopic compared to that of the number of Canadians working in the U.S. Again, what’s your point?

#130 Mister Obvious on 10.18.11 at 12:43 pm

#103 SKR Renter

“For example, you are ten years old, sitting at your dinner table at home, and your mother tells you about god. “/i>
——————————-

Very hard to imagine indeed, since my mother was a Catholic turned athiest long before I was born. Also the kindest soul I ever knew who looked for the best in everyone. Every day I give thanks to random events for having provided me such a wonderful mother.

#131 Jack Sprat on 10.18.11 at 12:44 pm

By the way, I’m familiar with this as I am one of the 30,000 Americans working in Canada.

#132 Mister Obvious on 10.18.11 at 12:44 pm

Damn! Sorry about the unclosed italics above Garth!

#133 jwkimba on 10.18.11 at 1:26 pm

Smoking man, try some of mama’s cooking at Sj’s. You’ll feel better.

#134 Nuke on 10.18.11 at 1:28 pm

The Toronto Community Housing board is looking at unloading a large inventory of occupied public housing into the Toronto Market.

http://www.torontohousing.ca/webfm_send/7677/1

#135 InPenticton on 10.18.11 at 1:36 pm

For those who don’t believe that real estate values are dropping in BC – 5 years ago we purchased a 3 bdrm 3 bath townhouse in Penticton for $216k. Having lived there for 5 years and being 2 kids and 1 dog later, we listed our townhouse in mid-August in order to be able to sell and rent a house. A neighbour in the same complex just accepted an offer at $202k – 3 years ago (stupid) people were buying units in our complex for $270k. We are currently listed at $219k but have had no bites and likely will have to drop to $209k and expect to sell in the low 200s. That’s a drop of $15k in the last 5 years, and more significantly, a drop of almost $70k or roughly 25% in the last 3 years…

#136 Mr.Lee on 10.18.11 at 1:41 pm

Taking at face value what the CREA says are the “numbers” with regards to the Canadian housing market is not any different to listening to any organization that is funded, backed and has a vested interest in the prosperity of its industry that it depends upon for its survival. This is tantamount to believing an infomercial or regular commercial without checking into the claims that were made. I thank you Mr. Turner for putting some perspective on what are obviously sewed figures.

#137 And in Calgary on 10.18.11 at 1:45 pm

In Calgary..

Anecdotal.. but the previous Downtown Condo that I was living in… I was asked to vacate because the landlord was “able” to get more rent. A couple weeks later a MLS listing shows the unit at $480K… 3 months later it still sits on the market now at $450k… meanwhile in my new townhouse rental.. the unit beside me sits for sale since we moved in… Listed at $380 when I moved there.. now $335.. Calgary is feeling the heat!

#138 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 10.18.11 at 1:45 pm

Well, we will only know about the housing plunge in hindsight but Carney little press release on interest rate policy flexibility along with this projection by the experts …. http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/07/economists-push-back-canadian-rate-hike-forecast-to-late-2012/
does all it can to pump up the great fool virgin house buyer to believe that he/she will be ok if they get a starter town and can rely on interest rates staying low for many years with rate not potentially changing until end of 2012 and then Carney keeping them frozen under threat of another crisis ad infinitum. So, there is still a small chance that this last gasp of low interest rates forever will buoy the market for another spring season or two. Media, realtors and government are some pretty stiff competition in terms of influencing public opinion/sentiment. Bond markets aren’t helping either by not demanding anything for their massive bags of money.

#139 SLN on 10.18.11 at 1:47 pm

“sudo [sic] literate parrasites [sic]”

that’s hilarious.

#140 pjwlk on 10.18.11 at 1:49 pm

A little off topic, sorry… But I can’t resist.

This is the really cool. – Quantum Levitation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ws6AAhTw7RA

#141 Moneta on 10.18.11 at 2:04 pm

disciple on 10.18.11 at 11:56 am
Beach Girl said: “Again, people who don’t care about money, don’t have any.”

That’s funny. detalumis said yesterday “I would suggest that if you grew up in poverty you would know that money trumps personal happiness every single time. It’s actually people who have no worries about housing, food, transportation and health care costs that say that it isn’t all that important.”

So which is it?
——-
I think people with money don’t realize how important money really is so they squander it. They don’t realize that their entire lifestyle depends on past sweat. (i.e typical Canadians)

Rags to rags in 3 generations… faster for most.

#142 canali on 10.18.11 at 2:06 pm

BC families among most indebted in country:
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Incomes+house+prices+leave+young+families+worse+than+anywhere+Canada/5567613/story.html

#143 Bill Gable on 10.18.11 at 2:15 pm

Smoking man – PLEASE _ PLEASE – enough, already!

#144 Mike on 10.18.11 at 2:21 pm

Took a drive through Richmond, BC today. Housing starts all over the place, and I’m talkin 5000 sq footers average. There might be a slide in values happenin, but whoever the owners of these homes are, they ain’t gonna feel any pain.

#145 pbrasseur on 10.18.11 at 3:07 pm

If you read (maybe if you’re like me you’ll have to read it twice…) this very interesting post by Scott Grannis on his blog. (this guy is one of the very rare commentator I listen to)

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/10/producer-inflation-continues-to.html

Then you’ll undersand that inflation is already among us due to (as is always the case) moneraty policy

From that there are tow potential outcomes:

Central bank agrees to raise rates to counter inflation

or

Velocity of money increases, in part due to moves to seek protection against inflation, more people and businesses borrow, this drives up interest rates.

or both.

Either way rates go up. Soon.

Alway believed governments would try to dilute their massive debts with inflation. Guess what, it’s already happening.

Guess what effect this will have on Canadian real-estate…

#146 Peakoilist on 10.18.11 at 3:21 pm

#125 bigrider
yeah, remember in the cartoons they would run outside and yell into a mailbox..made me LMAO, but then again that was like 40 yrs ago..oh shit giving my age away. so no sarcasm , just stupid humour. cheers.

#147 Van guy waiting on 10.18.11 at 3:31 pm

@Mike #144

Richmond market is quite extraordinary. Lots of HAM here. I’ve spoken to many Chinese here and many have purchased their home with cash. They plan to keep these homes and don’t even care about the price going down. It’s way cheaper than the condos in parts of China.

#148 Daystar on 10.18.11 at 3:34 pm

#70Ted on 10.18.11 at 6:49 am

I hear you. People don’t want to be told that they made the wrong choices or own up to the responsibilities of cleaning up after themselves or others, we like to cut and run from the heavy lifting, its true. But its just as true that we aren’t all the same, that generalities don’t speak for us all. Some of us will stay for the duration even if it means sticking around for the dirty work, at times even blamed for the mess others leave behind, but some will stay.

Case in point. When the Harper government is finally gone and Canadians vote for representatives instead of lobbyists, Canadians will have to clean up the mess this government has left behind. We will have a full blown housing bubble gone bust into year 4 come the next federal election, thanks to the Harper government’s policies through CMHC and links with stories like this one:

http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/texas-conservatives-reject-harpers-crime-plan-83

When failed examples south of the line are there for all to see and not learned from, ideology turns to “idiocy” defined as:

id·i·o·cy [id-ee-uh-see]
1.
utterly senseless or foolish behavior; a stupid or foolish act, statement, etc.
2.
Psychology . (no longer in technical use; considered offensive) the state of being an idiot.

At least, it appears at first, as ideocy until one asks “who benefits”. Whats next for Harper’s prisons? Try privatization of the penal system to his best corporate friends. With the Harper created housing bubble, the wealth effect created by an unprecidented credit expansion driven through loose regulations within CMHC was done to take our borrowed money and buy our votes. And it worked. Apparently, this government holds the belief that Canadians are better off for it, that real estate valuations should be driven through credit instead of earnings because we have a “better” government as a result. Voters agreed. Well… do we have that better government? Are our heavily indebted households more financially stable? Or do we just have ego bloated idiots, some motivated through greed and corruption running the show…

Debt is piling and piling in this nation from household, to public to corporate at unsustainable levels in household since 05′ (national mortgage debt ballooned from 570 billion to more than a trillion) with the arrival of Harper and 08′ at federal levels. In 09′, Canadians went publically into debt to the tune of 100 billion. With a 1.4 trillion dollar Canadian GDP, 100 billion is a disaster. Its called ideocy until one looks at the bond markets and sees who benefits.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/video/video-harper-lauds-end-to-wheat-board-monopoly/article2195436/

Who does Harper work for? Canadian farmers or Cargill and U.S. food manufacturing giants? Is Harper a representative of the people… or lobbyist representing large U.S. corporations? (and Canadian corps too, lets not forget about private Canadian media who would benefit tremendously with CBC gone) His manifesto is found here and he’s just getting warmed up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Citizens_Coalition

https://nationalcitizens.ca/cgi-bin/oms.cgi?rm=show_newcategory&cid=1

How long will it take for the public to catch on to the costs of doing business with a PM lobbyist when media who wants nothing more than increased market share left behind a sold off CBC, supports him at every turn? Media propaganda can keep guys like GWB elected when the train has left the tracks. Look at history, from Iraq’s WMD’s to Rwanda. From Hitler, Stalin and their followers to the war mongers of today, what does history teach? That corruption, sociopathic behavior and stupidity is common, that we as a sheeple are easily led through media and yet, we aren’t all the same. What defines our differences are the beliefs we hold and the levels of awareness to the truth itself, found in the murky waters of programmed systems of education and the propagandistic flavors of media. My advice?

Consumer/voter beware. You are constantly being lied to by self interests, almost always for money and power.

#149 disciple on 10.18.11 at 3:55 pm

Daystar on 10.18.11 at 3:34 pm

Great post. The PM’s bosses even succeeded in eliminating Jack Layton. Oh, sorry, did I cross a line? Swinging his cane in defiance of cancer one day, and then never to be heard from again the next? You decide.

#150 penpal on 10.18.11 at 4:20 pm

@ # 70 Ted

“Here’s an interesting observation…
……people are stupid.”

You must be a real genius to have figured that all out by yourself , eh?

I guess your comment would also apply to yourself as you seem to think (as inferred from your post) that people’s stupidity will somehow sustain the unsustainable, namely the Canadian housing bubble.

The fact that Canadians are stupid, delusional, math challenged, or whatever you want to call them for their irrational obsession with real estate, does not stop reality from asserting itself.

ALL ASSET BUBBLES BURST.

What do you not understand about that FACT.

Perhaps you really are just as stupid as all those Canadians who you are so eager to put down.

#151 jess on 10.18.11 at 4:41 pm

David Jacobson said in a speech in Ottawa that the U.S. is sympathetic to Canadians who may face penalties for having not filed U.S. tax returns for many years.
=

…”the buyer of residential property in Haverhill, Massachusetts, never owned it because U.S. Bancorp foreclosed before it got the mortgage. Today’s ruling could have implications in the foreclosure crisis, in which banks are accused of clouding home titles through sloppy transferring of mortgages. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/buyer-can-t-bring-case-after-bad-foreclosure-sale-court-rules.html

Audits ?
Audit Watchdog Criticized Deloitte Quality Controls in ’08
http://www.forbes.com/sites/francinemckenna/2011/07/28/judge-kaplan-ernst-young-must-defend-lehman-investor-lawsuit/
=

#152 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.18.11 at 4:44 pm

Speaking of CREA stats, the GTA mid-month numbers just came out today:

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2011/nr_mid_month_1011.htm

Everything is up across the board (compared to Octocber 2010). Mind you, October 2010 was not a stellar month, but I wouldn’t expect anyone to highlight data that didn’t reflect favourably… you know, like the fact that October average price is still below May/June average price ($475k in October vs. $485k in May).

#153 johnny5z on 10.18.11 at 4:45 pm

The people who are making money in RE and those that are becoming RE brokers remind me of the time that Joe Kennedy visited Wall Street in the late 1920’s. A shoeshine boy explained how he was making sooo much money in the stock market. After the shine, Joe turned around and left.

#154 WI BOOMER on 10.18.11 at 4:48 pm

SMKING MAN Come here to read the entries, and over time most entertaining & enjoyable have been yours!!

Garth is quite correct, at times it IS a pathetic blog, but then WE are the pathetic contributors, all.

DAYSTAR is correct, we are being lied to, er “marketed to” is perhaps a more concise moniker. In the US we have only PBS as a non-commercial broadcaster, that gets a small portion of its operating funds from public sources. PBS is Public Broadcasting. You have CBC, Geat Britain has the BBC both quite excellent services, for which you should be greatful & proud.

Me thinks we rely too heavily today on electronic media, fewer read books, especially a half dozen, or more on the same subject to gain a broader perspective of the item.
Real Estate being the prime focus of this blog. Most Canadians would say RE is over priced. Most in the US today would say it is over-priced as well, even with the markets being down virtually nationwide. I don’t know, I am not in the market for RE.

Anyhow, sure do enjoy the various voices here, keep up with it all, you’re great for posting, it makes my day complete!

#155 Mark on 10.18.11 at 4:49 pm

#118 Cory I can tell you one thing, Alberta’s oil patch is very very busy. I know because I am in the heart of it all. Can’t find crews, services, even the most menial service without booking a week or so in advance….and if you have to re-schedule, forget it they are gone. People are making money and spending it.

Funny you mention that because a number of my neighbours work in Alberta, and they’ve seen their rates cut dramatically. Some can’t even go back this year for lack of jobs. Guys have seen their incomes go from $100-$120k/year, down to, in some cases, $50k/year (ie: boilermakers).

What you’re talking about sounds more like a case of firms wanting to keep their limited crews fully utilized, even at contemporary low rates, rather than having the guys sit idle and going broke paying them.

Oilsands projects have been cut to the bone as well. Apparently Suncor stock being only 1/3rd of its 2007 levels, as well as the NXY/OPC disaster at Long Lake hae prompted a huge re-assessment of risk in the sector. Throw in all the nonsense in the USA around the Keystone pipeline, and its shaping up to be one of the slowest construction/oilfield years in a long time. Natural gas is still in the dumps, with very little activity there as well.

#156 Mark on 10.18.11 at 4:54 pm

“The beauty of owning RE is you can just make up a value in your head as to what it’s worth and run with it indefinitely until, of course, you need to sell, in which case reality will bite you right in the proverbial nuts.”

….or until you need to renew a loan, and the lender demands a higher interest rate to reflect the deterioration of the asset as collateral. Or demands a higher rate to reflect the loss of purchasing power of the money he lent you.

The adjustable nature of most Canadian RE loans over their amortizations pretty much ensures that Canada’s crash will be far more severe than the one experienced in the USA. After all, in the USA, if your house goes into negative equity and you have a 30-year mortgage, you can just close your eyes, keep making payments, and your rate never changes. In Canada, the bank is certain to look for more interest if the collateral is underwater (or near to it), if they let you keep the asset at all.

#157 NoName on 10.18.11 at 5:01 pm

I just don’t get RE, maybe i’am slow or something… It is so funny, everyone i know is making money RE, and almost everyone have MRT… what am i missing here???

#158 jess on 10.18.11 at 5:11 pm

Athens braced for ‘mother of all strikes’Thousands of riot police are being rushed to Athens ahead of what one Greek daily has dubbed ‘the mother of all strikes’ – a 48-hour stoppage with a pledge by unions to flood the capital with protesters

reddit this Helena Smith in Athens guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 18 October 2011 19.41 BST Article history

#159 Kenji on 10.18.11 at 5:19 pm

RE market is not going to tank. There are reasons international investors/buyers buy in Canada. Why not anywhere else where they can get a much better deal. It’s not like we are know for sunshine either. HAM? The HAM didn’t just grow on the tree’s in Asia. These people are smart, invest well, and make use of their opportunities.

Stop sitting on yo’ arse and waiting for it. Some of you have been doing that for too many years. Where are we now? Always calling people fools for buying? Well didn’t we call them that 3 years ago? Seems like they a little better off then some of the decisions made here.

#160 jess on 10.18.11 at 5:24 pm

How did the city acquire these buildings? Were they buildings that went bust from past bubbles /defaults?

“The average age of Toronto Community Housing’s buildings is 40 years. .. the backlog of repairs has actually doubled, from $322 million in 2008 to $650 million in 2011.”

#161 Ted on 10.18.11 at 5:29 pm

#148 Daystar on 10.18.11 at 3:34 pm

#70Ted on 10.18.11 at 6:49 am
I hear you. People don’t want to be told that they made the wrong choices or own up to the responsibilities of cleaning up after themselves or others, we like to cut and run from the heavy lifting, its true
—-
Close Daystar…close.

Truth is stupid people don’t even realize what they’ve done…nor do they remember or accept the fact that they made stupid mistakes. They just shrug and move on…ignoring what they did in favour of more thoughtlessness.

Just watch…when the housing bubble finally bursts those same lunk heads will be stunned, and they’ll clamour (effectively I might add) for the government to “do something”.

And the Harpo thugs will rally to the cause and bail them out via CMHC (or some other mechanism).

Why?

Because it’s so so easy to buy the votes of stupid people with their OWN freakin’ money.

They’ve proven that to be true (it’s how they got a majority) and they will relentlessly use our money…YOUR money to buy votes…again.

Meanwhile, as you correctly state the Harper thugs are indeed lobbyists.

They’re lobbyists of the lowest order…their allegiance is to Corporate interests, the Oil Industry, and to any entity, Foreign or Domestic, that can further their dirty cause.

They do not represent Canadians or Canada, they represent greed. Sociopathic greed.

And yet, the stupid will vote for them … again.

Mark my words.

Canada will continue to fall victim to the lowest common denominator…genuinely STUPID people.

FWIW, Educating stupid people just won’t work.

It’s like trying to teach a pig to dance…all you end up doing is frustrating the pig and wasting your time.

By and large it seems to me that the folks who frequent this humble blog are intelligent and thoughtful.

Mostly anyway.

They are not the problem…it’s the stupid people that are the root problem and they don’t hang around here.

So Garth never (or at least rarely) gets the chance to work his special brand of cowboy booted, Harley riding, leather knickered, hummer driving mojo on them. (Now THERE’s a visual for ya!)

Simply put, you can’t fix stupid.

And as I have heard said time and again…rule number one in the world of politics…never overestimate the intelligence of the electorate.

Like I said…reality bites sometimes.

#162 T.J. BONES on 10.18.11 at 5:37 pm

Disciple : Detalumis is simulated spelled backwards

#163 Ted on 10.18.11 at 5:41 pm

penpal…

Wanna dance?

#164 Devil's Advocate on 10.18.11 at 6:23 pm

#136 Mr.Lee on 10.18.11 at 1:41 pm

Taking at face value what the CREA says are the “numbers” with regards to the Canadian housing market is not any different to listening to any organization that is funded, backed and has a vested interest in the prosperity of its industry that it depends upon for its survival. This is tantamount to believing an infomercial or regular commercial without checking into the claims that were made. I thank you Mr. Turner for putting some perspective on what are obviously sewed figures.

And here, as I recall, I thought you one of the more intelligent of the bunch?

Of all that which a REALTOR® brings to the table, the single greatest is objective factual market information. Malicious manipulation of that single greatest asset would be to render themselves utterly useless. Why would they do that? Corrupt their own data integrity, kinda short sighted don’t you think.

#165 Manipulated Markets won't stop the riots on 10.18.11 at 6:42 pm

Waterloo Resident on 10.17.11 at 10:37 pm
Here’s the truth: Tens of thousands of Americans a MONTH are coming to Canada and getting jobs here !

At a local Value Village I was talking to a lady who came up to Canada 18 months ago from Massachusetts, she’s an unemployed American and she got work here in Value Village, something she couldn’t get back home
——————————————————————

People working at Value Village can’t afford rent let alone overvalued RE in Canada. Realtors like Waterloo Resident are very worried the masses will wake up and the housing bubble crashes worse then what happened in the US. Time is running out realtor Waterloo Resident .

#166 Abitibi Doug on 10.18.11 at 6:59 pm

Those protestors on Bay Street should become a linching mob and go after the “real’ source of our troubles, namely the CREA.

#167 Daystar on 10.18.11 at 7:32 pm

#161Ted on 10.18.11 at 5:29 pm

Do you think we can breed them out? The stupid one’s I mean (if they aren’t to hard to look at). Do you think stupids have enough intelligence to catch onto the fact that they and their generations are being victimized for their mental weaknesses? (y’know, without offending them somehow, its just a thought) There must be something us smarter folk void of black hearts can do. Maybe one can tinker with their belief systems in the sublime for the time being and wait for the worm to turn (it always turns). Oh, and… much agreed.

And this penpal dude, sharp like whip (when not blinded by anger which is often) but grumpy! Don’t wanna tell him what to do (er, ah, um, hmmm.. I guess I do tell people what to do sometimes wups) but… if he could just interject a little comic relief from time to time, maybe come up with a supportive link or two? Y’know, get in touch with the feminine side… after all, true intelligence is marked by ones ability to communicate to all walks of life regardless of their “present” (yes, I chose that word carefully) mental, emotional, physical and spiritual challenges. I believe what I’m referring to is the practice of “diplomacy”. My thoughts anyway.

#155Mark on 10.18.11 at 4:49 pm

Depends on the sector and the balance sheet of the seniors in the regions we are talking about. Gas is down but oil is doing well where light crude is involved and there is money to spend in capital expenditures with healthier balance sheets in mind so from what I can tell the answer is… it depends. I’m around Shaunavon Sask (Crescent Point light crude country) and there is plenty of activity here from drilling to facilities. The word “boom” can be applied here in my backyard but I know its not the same elsewhere for the above aforementioned reasons.

#168 Cory on 10.18.11 at 8:23 pm

155 Mark on 10.18.11 at 4:49 pm
—–

Maybe your neighbors are not good quality workers?? we can’t get drilling rigs as there is lack of manpower to run them, rig rates are on the rise, contractor/pipeline/facility rates on the rise. As I said, I am in the middle of it all. I hire all of these services and they are hard to find regardless of what your neighbors say.

Oilsands are not grinding to a halt. They are definitely on the move but in a more measured pace than before and on purpose.

I have been in the industry for over half of my life, I know when it is busy and when it is not. Not sure where you live but there is an obvious difference in what you “hear” at the local pub, and what I “see” in the actual business.

#169 Boombust on 10.18.11 at 8:33 pm

“sudo [sic] literate parrasites [sic]”

that’s hilarious.

Hey! I’ve seen …”for all intensive purposes”.

#170 JRH on 10.18.11 at 8:52 pm

Smokin Man will be pleased to notice that the Alberta Premier gave 107 million to the Alberta teachers union.

#171 Mark on 10.18.11 at 9:13 pm

#168 Cory, I have friends in the business and I am in Alberta frequently. I’m just reporting what I’m seeing and hearing. A few outfits, perhaps in your community, might have trouble staffing up in an environment where rates have been, justifiably, cut in half due to supply and demand. There’s a lot of guys who were earning $45-$50/hour, who just aren’t in tune with the reality that the going rate is now $25/hour for their skills (ie: boilermakers, rig guys, etc.). These low rates are why Alberta rural RE has absolutely crashed, and the cities are now seeing the effects as well.

Most of my time is spent in the Medicine Hat and Grande Prairie areas, as well as in Calgary. Not seeing any evidence of a significant EPC staff-up which would be a pre-requisite to the oilsands projects going back on track. And you certainly don’t hear of any stories about the salaries out of Fort Mac anymore, that’s for sure.

#172 penpal on 10.18.11 at 10:12 pm

@ # 163 Ted

Sounds like you have two left feet.

So, you can’t dance with me.

Besides, you couldn’t keep up to me in any capacity, so let it rest.

Your ego is a pretty sad thing to witness.

#173 pjwlk on 10.19.11 at 12:28 am

Not much to cry about in the GTA according to this guy’s research.

http://guava.ca/indicators.html

#174 Jim on 10.19.11 at 1:57 pm

I don’t know about the boiler makers but the Rig techs are in short supply. 10kto 20k a month is possible.

As much as I hate to say it but a lot of employers are looking for just about every one.

Restaurants are again becoming short staffed in Calgary.

Look for how many temporary foriegn workers are working at the fast food places because they cannot get locals.

#175 Mike on 10.19.11 at 2:04 pm

Garth
You question CREA’s numbers and state your own, but don’t say where you got yours. Can you offer the source of your data?

Which numbers? — Garth

#176 Roland on 10.19.11 at 2:30 pm

“Dark Matter” is the Phlogiston of today.

Somehow most of the matter in the universe is supposed to have characteristics not shared by any matter which we have actually observed.

But if there is no Dark Matter, then our current theory of gravitation is incorrect, at least on the intergalactic scale.

When all else fails, make something up. Get Bernanke to print it, a sucker to buy it, and a government to bail it out. QED!