Doomer Boomers

There are now 122 properties for sale priced over $800,000 within a ten-minute drive of the Bunker. This is a supposedly upscale part of the GTA, a highly acceptable 40-minute commute to the city core. For decades, secluded corners have attracted the kinds of people who spend more on a horse than most people do on a house.

How’s real estate doing, you cry? In this market, in this price range, two houses have sold in the past two months, one of them after being listed for 20 months and selling at a 28% discount. Two sold, 120 to go. At this rate there’s a five-year supply of listings.

So much for liquidity, or the myth that real estate in all of Toronto (or all of Vancouver) is on fire. The reality is that smoke is billowing from just a few individual markets – cheap houses (under five large), pre-construction builder specials, and condos. All of those cater mostly to first-time buyers, too virginal or dumb to be scared by a 95% mortgage.

But in the suburban watershed and beyond, where the population’s largely made up of Boomers, winter descended on the market months ago. Too bad. A ton of them – at least 122 of my neighbours – need to get out. And can’t.

This experience may not have happened in the Toronto area since the early Nineties – a decade and a half ago – but it’s being lived every day south of the border. A lousy economy and frosty housing market has squished Boomer plans to downsize, rightsize or merely save their financial ass. A survey last week found almost eight in ten want to move, or must move, but can’t. When there no buyers, or no equity left, changing house is no longer an option.

This experience is not restricted to the horsey part of the GTA, or the US. Far from it. Try selling a million-dollar house in Victoria these days (also about 120 for sale at that price this week). Or a home worth more than $400,000 in Nova Scotia, or seven hundred in Kelowna, Penticton or Vernon. These are Boomer houses. All with cobwebs and rust on the For Sale signs, empty open houses, yellowing feature sheets and dejected agents.

Particularly hard hit are those oxygen-suckers who have not heeded this pathetic blog, spending a career and an adulthood paying down the mortgage and eschewing financial investments. Like most Boomers, they’ve not got the bulk of their net worth in an asset nobody’s interested in buying. And at the same time they flick on the news and open the paper, and read all about the country’s ‘resilient, dynamic’ housing market. For them, it ain’t so.

For example, I just read saw in the National Post:

The Canadian housing market “is like the fountain of youth,” said one analyst. Rising real estate values, he explained, have helped drive consumer spending and provided fuel for the home building industry, a major source of jobs. According to the CMHC, residential development represents about 20% of the domestic economy.

The good news is that at least for the moment a correction does not appear to be in the cards. “The housing market is quite healthy,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at the CMHC. “Despite the financial uncertainty in global markets, economic fundamentals remain supportive of the housing market in Canada.”

Well, not exactly in Abbotsford, London, Saanich, King City or a growing number of towns and cities which are natural habitat to roving herds of wrinkly creatures who actually remember Jeff Beck. For them the fountain-of-youth market ran out of squirt some time in 2010.

So, two lessons. Don’t believe everything you read or hear in the media about the Canadian housing market. National stats are being skewed by one or two aberrant markets, where activity and steady prices can create a completely false picture of the reality for millions of homeowners. Sadly, in a place like Vancouver, real estate’s being supported by mass hysteria, not economic fundamentals, as people buy into the fantasy prices always ascend. This will not last, but so long as it does, outfits like Royal LePage, CREA or Re/Max will take advantage, and have no qualms in painting a false picture based on unicorn numbers.

Second, worship liquidity. It’s all that really matters. In the US, Britain, Spain and across Europe people looking towards retirement, and those who must move to chase jobs and opportunity,  have learned this the hard way. Houses are easy to buy. Hard to sell. It takes just days, or hours, to become encumbered. It can take years to get out.

Real estate’s an aphrodisiac, a total covetous turn-on. Its emotional tug is overwhelming, especially when we confuse security with a mortgage and an address. But it can equally be a destroyer of wealth, as so many have learned since 2008, or a suffocating deadweight on the future.

Have some, but too much. Never concentrate your wealth in your house. Remove equity and diversify. Don’t confuse a home with a financial plan. And, whatever you do, don’t get old.

227 comments ↓

#1 Bong House on 10.16.11 at 5:36 pm

First!

#2 Abitibi Doug on 10.16.11 at 5:37 pm

The Baby Boom generation (of which I am a proud member) really should know better. How is it that the generation that’s more educated (with the help of college and university educations more heavily subsidized than now) than previous generations, and has witnessed previous real estate bear markets in the early 1980’s and early 1990’s doesn’t know better? Another one of life’s mysteries.

#3 Fleabitten Monkey on 10.16.11 at 5:39 pm

Hey, I’m 40 and can’t wait to see Jeff Beck. He’s in Vancouver this month.

#4 Smoking Man on 10.16.11 at 5:45 pm

Garth Said

So, two lessons. Don’t believe everything you read or hear in the media about the Canadian housing market. National stats are being skewed by one or two aberrant markets, where activity and steady prices can create a completely false picture of the reality for millions of homeowners.

Aggreed but why stop there, Include Equity Market.

Only one market that never lies The BOND Market It goes up equities go down, Bonds prices down equites go up………………..

#5 live within your means on 10.16.11 at 5:55 pm

“And, whatever you do, don’t get old.”

Unfortunately, your advice is too late for us. :-)

#6 Bhupinder on 10.16.11 at 6:02 pm

So, when is the Canadian “big” real estate bust going to happen?

Right after you buy. — Garth

#7 Trent on 10.16.11 at 6:07 pm

Hi Garth,

I’ve just started reading your blog and find your comments on the Canadian housing market very interesting.

I live in Saskatoon which is likely one of those “aberrant markets” you refer to. We have seen a massive increase here in housing prices over the last five years, although it has leveled off in the last two.

There is clearly a “boom” happening in Saskatchewan but my gut tells me that it won’t meet the hype that is being predicted.

My question is what do you foresee happening to the housing market in Saskatoon over the next 1, 3, and 5 years?

#8 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.16.11 at 6:33 pm

I hear that the HUM (Hot Unicorn Money) is lining up to buy all of the homes that the HAM just “won” in bidding wars.

#9 the Phantom on 10.16.11 at 6:38 pm

Hi All!!!

To add to your thoughts today Garth as they relate to those who paint by unicorn numbers, I harken back to the sage words of Magnus Eliason (June 21, 1911–November 11, 2005) when he said “figures never lie but liars use figures.”

The only other part I want to submit is the query who is Jeff Beck and why at the age of 45 have I never heard of him? Is my life that cloistered?

the Phantom

#10 bubu on 10.16.11 at 6:39 pm

I don’t agree with your words: ” Houses are easy to buy. Hard to sell.” Everything is easy to sell… at the right price, of course.

Then a house is no investment at all, not even a repository of wealth. Meaningless statement. — Garth

#11 jess on 10.16.11 at 6:42 pm

liar loans

Accused fraudster Achilleas Kallakis used forgeries to give illusion …www.guardian.co.uk/…/accused-fraudster-kallakis-used-forgeries-co…Cached
You +1’d this publicly. Undo
29 Sep 2011 – Nephew of shipping tycoon alleged to have secured 17 loans, … give the illusion of vast wealth as part of an elaborate £750m fraud against Allied Irish Banks and Lloyds Banking Group, … “The banks lent more money than they normally would have, as a result of lies and the use of forged documents

#12 stevenson on 10.16.11 at 6:47 pm

#2 Abitibi Doug

College and University is all theory. If this world ran on theory and everything was by the book, all business graduates would be millionaires. Unfortunately you can stupid these days and get a degree. You go to school to find a job, but you don’t need school to make money.

#13 Marc L on 10.16.11 at 6:48 pm

Hey Garth

Do you think municipal governments are nervous with regards to a major price correction in RE? If it crashes, homes may be re-assessed and the taxes collected would be reduced? I know that MPAC won’t be greasing the wheels to change assessments, but desperate homeowners will be all over them when they can’t make payments… Your thoughts?

#14 Marc L on 10.16.11 at 6:51 pm

In case you’re interested in how the 0.0001 percent live…

http://homesoftherich.net/

#15 stevenson on 10.16.11 at 6:53 pm

40 minutes commute away from the core?? That’s not even Toronto. The “speculated” bubble is in Torono no?
This sounds more like Milton or Barrie possibly.

Man if there is this so called bubble, then it is really deflating slowly or not at all. Toronto prices are still steady if not inflating. Remeber this is the low season where its suppose to tread down a bit instead.

Haven’t traveled the 401 lately, I see. — Garth

#16 killer_cult on 10.16.11 at 6:56 pm

You are a killer Garth, and will be remember as a cult :)

#17 Dorothy on 10.16.11 at 6:59 pm

The people who are going to get into trouble in the current housing downturn are those who bought at the top of the market, those who borrowed more than they could afford in order to buy a house, or those who over extended themselves to buy “investment” properties such as condos.
And while I do know boomers who fit into all of those categories, I also know far more who don’t.
Most of the boomers I know bought their homes prior to the market appreciating, and are therefore well able to afford a drop in house prices if they have to. But as most of them aren’t planning on selling any time soon, it’s a moot point. The ones who were considering selling are now deciding they’ll stay in place until either the market improves or they have to sell due to ill health, whichever comes first. But as most are in fairly good health I think it will be the former rather than the latter. And if it doesn’t happen, then they’ll just stay where they are until they drop.
So for the boomers who were either wise enough, or didn’t have the financial wherewithall to speculate in real estate, all this housing downturn will do is change their retirement plans a bit. Most will now “retire in place” rather than sell and move. Which is a only return to the way most folk used to retire in the past, so what’s the big deal? I know my grandparents lived in the same house where they raised their family right up until my grandfather died. And by that time, my grandmother was old enough that she wasn’t too upset about whether or not she made a profit on her house.
I know lots of boomers who are already making plans to “retire in place” and renovating their houses accordingly. They get to retire in familiar neighbourhoods, in a house with lots of memories, and many are looking forward to it. I know I am.
If they have a big house, then some will rent out rooms to supplement their income. I know of lots of pensioners in universtiy towns who are doing this already.
Many boomers have already figured out that it’s as cheap to hire someone to plough your drive and cut your grass as it is to pay condo fees, so why give up your lovely home to live in a box in the sky?
My point is that this housing downturn isn’t going to be as big of a disaster for most boomers as Garth predicts, although he’s right when he says it will have a big negative impact on the overextended ones. But that applies to ALL who are overextended in real estate, not just boomers. And I don’t have any sympathy for people who gambled all their money on speculative investments, real estate or otherwise.
Those who were prudent and lived within their means will survive this downturn.

You missed the point utterly. — Garth

#18 bcaltanorthernlights on 10.16.11 at 7:06 pm

SIL and daughter went to the bank this week to see what they would qualify for in a mortgage. Hadn,t been throught the process before. He a finishing carpenter, she has a BSc and a B. Ed. works in a lab. Not much hope of getting into the teaching system in BC. Anyhow, I asked them how it went. He said they both were told they had extremely high credit ratings and were offered what he and my daughter consider to be “stupid amounts of money” resulting in payments way higher than they will consider and be comfortable with. So they are going to continue waiting, just like I hoped they would.

#19 michael francis on 10.16.11 at 7:10 pm

Hey, I’m a baby boomer. The whole world is stuffed because of people like me. I don’t know what I did wrong, but I had a great time doing it.

#20 Uncle Joe Red Square Ciggy Puff on 10.16.11 at 7:23 pm

Hi Garth could we have more nudity and/or animal attack pics please. There’s been a distinct lack of both recently. The more public and outrageous the better – thanks fetisher.

#21 JO on 10.16.11 at 7:24 pm

Right on Garth, many homeDEBTRENTERS will come to shock over the next 5-6 yrs: prop taxes up 30-40 %, utilities up 30-40 %, house price flat or down 15-20 %, cash flow already squeezed as they bought an overpriced house (instead of paying traditional rent and saving a fortune each month) and that gets crushed even more as mtg renewals come in at 6 or 7 %…most will simply get wiped out…

Just curious, what general area is your bunker location..about 40 minutes to downtown is not bad at all…close to Hamilton ? Calendon ? The more I think about things, the more I realize I need to look at buying a cheaper place outside of the city but that offers access to downtown easily..
JO

#22 pete in Barrie on 10.16.11 at 7:44 pm

What I cannot understand is why the msm does not cover this problem. Garth, have you ever been invited on Lang and O’Leary to discuss your views on real estate? Would you go?

#23 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.16.11 at 7:59 pm

At least your $800k or $1M gets you something notable “near the bunker”, like these:

2 acres plus a huge house for $839k
or
1.5 acres and a 5-bed/5-bath giant house for $1M

Those are palaces when compared to Toronto, where $839k gets you a tear-down, or Vancouver, where you get a dump near the airport for $838k.

#24 jess on 10.16.11 at 8:00 pm

192 Screwed in BC
Dragon Den host is running for president of Ireland ….image Prime Minister O’leary!

Seán Gallagher (born 7 July 1962), is an Irish entrepreneur, businessman and politician from County Cavan, Ireland. He is the founder of the company Smarthomes and has featured as a panellist on RTÉ’s Dragons’ Den. He is a candidate in the 2011 Irish presidential election.[2]

#25 othersunnydays on 10.16.11 at 8:02 pm

I’ve been looking for a starter house for the last 2 years hoping the RE market would at least normalize but the prices change upward no matter what.
I think that if there will be a downsize it’s going to be in 10 years maybe. Btw, the rental market is not any better either. Garth, everyone is human. It’s not possible to time a downturn. If I would find an opportunity to leave this country I would without blinking. It’s full of 35 years mortgage indebted slaves. It’s like a contest who can get more indebted. I don’t wanna pay for this.
Nice life though. You just don’t feel the pain.

#26 Onemorething on 10.16.11 at 8:06 pm

You wont need access to downtown TO when your job goes bye bye.

Note to self, stop trying to discuss the future of RE in both Canada and AUS with people I like. It just doesnt get through. We all have to learn the hard way. At least he works for the Aus government.

#27 45north on 10.16.11 at 8:06 pm

not exactly in Abbotsford, London, Saanich, King City

King City : my sister lives around there, I told her that property values would drop. Another thing , if you take King City side road from the 400 over to Young Street, the speed limit changes half a dozen times. The limit right in front of the schools is 50 km/hour. King City side road effectively divides King City in two, speed limit or no.

JO: I need to look at buying a cheaper place outside of the city but that offers access to downtown easily..

it’s called Burlington

#28 TurnerNation on 10.16.11 at 8:08 pm

Yeesh, who wants to live in Bunkerville? :)

#29 dd on 10.16.11 at 8:11 pm

13 Mark l,

If the city needs money it will raise taxes. If it cant raise taxes it will but service. Propertly values do not dictate how much cash the city takes in … you can always adjust the mill rate.

#30 pete in Barrie on 10.16.11 at 8:13 pm

Doesn’t everyone know that the former honorable minister lives in the Caledon area. Anyway, the horse reference is a giveaway. BTW Barrie is a good hour from the core of Toronto; Caledon probably 40 minutes sounds right

#31 #15, Toronto Still Hot on 10.16.11 at 8:15 pm

Garth, please explain why some areas of Toronto (eg C3 & C4) are selling so well. Almost all the homes are 1+M, and sell fast, many still with bidding wars.

You should actually travel down the 401 & see what’s going on!

I know exactly. But those are small areas of unique and centrally-located homes within a region of six million people. They do not reflect the broader market. — Garth

#32 MapleLeafsSuck on 10.16.11 at 8:18 pm

The Toronto RE market will follow the Leafs. We all know where that will be. Leafs suck, Garth rules!

#33 Westernman on 10.16.11 at 8:26 pm

Trent;
Allow me to enlighten you about the future of the housing market in Saskatoon over the next five years…
Three words: Back to reality.
Reality will put Saskatoon and all the other settlements built in frozen holes in the prairies back to their intrinsic values… that is to say the housing prices will reflect the hellish conditions of the Canadian tundra.
No one really wants to live in Sask – barely one million in the entire province – so sooner or later this will be reflected in housing values. The game of self-deception will end in Sask. and places like it.
Just remember the story about about reality and fantasy meeting up in a dark alley… when it was over fantasy lay in the gutter – bruised and bleeding.

#34 Moneta on 10.16.11 at 8:26 pm

You go to school to find a job, but you don’t need school to make money
——-
Yup. Thanks to 30 years of real estate subsidies.

#35 Tim on 10.16.11 at 8:31 pm

A forty minute commute is acceptable? What kind of quality of life is that? I’d rather live in an apartment close to downtown. I’m in my 40’s and I remember Jeff Beck and I’m pissed because his show is sold out. Monster musician. Despite all the doom and gloom, Vancouver prices are sure “sticky” they’ve barely budged.

#36 Devore on 10.16.11 at 8:33 pm

#25 othersunnydays

Garth, everyone is human. It’s not possible to time a downturn.

Luckily for you, you don’t have to. You just have to wait until fundamentals indicate houses are cheap (you’ll know when this is, because everyone you know will be selling them), otherwise stand aside. No need to get caught up in a bubble and become an unwitting speculator.

#37 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 8:35 pm

Options.

We all have them and yet we all choose based on our own situation and world view. Many my age that I know (late 30’s) opt to place the majority of their net worth in one income consuming piece of real estate. Ignoring diversification and the world of other options that are in front of them …. if they were only able to cut through the ‘noise’ and look and listen.

I opt to rent and have freedom of non-ownership. Freedom of fewer years to my ‘work optional years’ because I have investments that pay me to own them, instead of the other way around.

I will never understand why people that live in a free society, choose an option that causes them to give up that freedom.

There are so many things that people do in this world that I have accepted I will never understand.

“common sense is not always common”

#38 cool on 10.16.11 at 8:38 pm

#9 the phantom,

For you ,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yGB6d_3n58&feature=fvst

#39 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 8:39 pm

#7 Trent

Just because you live in SK doesn’t mean that you must act like you’re ignorant.

Think for yourself!
What do you think will happen?
WAKE UP!!!
SK is not Utopia, never has been, NEVER WILL BE!
WAKE UP!!!

… refer to my last post.

#40 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 8:40 pm

#10 Bubu

You’re an idiot.
Writing on a blog is easy.
Having a point and making sense is hard.

#41 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.16.11 at 8:42 pm


“Second, worship liquidity. It’s all that really matters.” — Unless you’re a zombiesheeplenutbar who worships debt, like H – F. Good post.

Jeff Beck looks quite sexy here, and what’s more, he’s alive!
*
IMF Like Greece, Ireland etc., Af’stan has joined the idiots. Only Iceland’s citizens told TPTB to go screw themselves, as people are not responsible for a govt.’s debts or bailouts. Again, lawyers were involved. Lawyers understand law, not economics; Too Few Have Too Much “Cantor also admitted that the sun appears to rise in the east every morning.” wrh.com; OWS The Money Changers; Closing Accounts Big banks refusing to let people close accts.; Occupy Antarctica Yesterday I saw an Occupy Arctic sign, so the planet is covered.

EU bailout Can’t happen as it’s too big; A Den Of Vipers Chapter 17, the conclusion; Fifteen Minutes of Fame Actually, the gap is growing and Exploding Heads from the IRS and CRA; Unsophisticated That’s a big word! One Per Cent “Throughout history, this is something that the top 1 percent eventually do learn. Too late.” wrh.com; Ugandan Oil Field “I mean, you didn’t think Obama sent the troops in for democracy or peace of freedom or any of that crap, did you?” wrh.com; 35 Years Ago UK facing its biggest income drop. Stay liquid!

Politics and Banking Dump both, then flush them away! Free or Fair Trade Here are 20 reasons; Progress? See the headline and judge for yourself; Unabomber and a very good Cdn. question; 3:59 clip Friends or foes? m$m hoax Started on vitamins, health foods etc.

shanks Iceland’s ‘cano ready to blow. May trigger El Hierro in the Canarys; Ron Paul’s Agenda If / when he becomes prez.; Iran Same setup as Iraq. May these neocon whackjobs enjoy the pleasure of burning in hell for eternity and beyond (it’s a male thing); US – Af’stan Good question; Iran’s Fast and Furious Plot “Under already existing US sanctions, it is impossible to wire funds from Iran to anyone in the United States. Try again, bozos.” wrh.com; Fukushima The m$m failed, so look at the numbers; Numbers How many countries have Iran or Iraq invaded? None. Nachos. Nil. How many countries has the US invaded (roughly)?

#42 Westernman on 10.16.11 at 8:42 pm

Keeping the Faith:
” Just because you live in Sask. doesn’t mean that you must act like your ignorant ”
They aren’t acting…

#43 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 8:49 pm

#12 Stevenson,

“Unfortunately you can stupid these days and get a degree.”

Ok, Stevenson, this is it.
This is your warning.

If you keep lurking and occasionally posting your RE Pumper material on this site, I guarantee you that over the next 3 months, you will be holistically and un-relentlessly embarrassed well beyond any point that a simpleton real estate pumper should ever be embarrassed.
It will be embarrassing for all of us, on the scale of Don Cherry apologizing on national TV.
Your views are dated and are well beyond the expiry time.
And the only thing that will satiate this blogging crowd will be for you to put your head between your legs and kiss your own arse and apologize to all human kind for your pathetic real estate pumping that you have demonstrated on this site.

Please Stevenson, I ask you now.
In front of the congregation.
Drop your impotent words and walk away from the keyboard.

Please for the sake of humanity and kindness.
Stop posting your RE pumping posts.
For your own good.

#44 wetcoaster on 10.16.11 at 8:52 pm

The pathetic whining of the real estate agents in BC demanding the immediate removal of the HST is enough to make one puke. This is totally reminiscent of when they cried like babies when Jimbo turned back the 40 year mortgage. These greedy tools don’t get the end game is over and no one wants one of your sh*t box leaker condos no matter where they are.

The only condos that do sell are the ones used for Remax advertising purposes on Global TV when the paid off fake buyers in the line ups turn out to be line holders for the same dumb ass agents who are now holding the preverbial bag and whining to the government. Karma is one big bitch alright.

#45 JSS on 10.16.11 at 8:54 pm

Hey Garth,
When you say “Never concentrate your wealth in your house. Remove equity and diversify.”

Do you mean to use your HELOC to purchase dividend stocks, bonds, pref shares, etc.?

I don’t mean borrowing against your house to buy a condo. — Garth

#46 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 8:56 pm

Garth,

I bow in awe of you.
I’ve tried tonight to answer just a few of the idiotic posts on this site.
You somehow are able to respond in clear, short, concise language.
You have a skill beyond normal human reach.

I don’t know how you do it.
It’s supernatural.
Such idiotic posts.
Responded to with so few words, making so much sense.
You deserve the Order of Canada and the Nobel Prize of Blogging … when they create that award of course.

I’m not kidding, I don’t know how you do it.

#47 Mr. Lee on 10.16.11 at 8:59 pm

After opening the Home Section of the Calgary Heald, I was greeted to the same pressttiute cheer leading as was printed in the National Post. As with the post this market pumping came from the good old CMHC. Speaking of how the fundamentals of the Calgary market will make for a robust 2012 and 2013. Never, of course, is there a mention of debt load obligations and income to reflect the sort o f pricing that the CMHC believes to be “robust”.

#48 Mike on 10.16.11 at 8:59 pm

Friend just sold today 2000 sf house including basement suite in Victoria in two days for asking price of 700,000…….i

#49 Smell The Coffee on 10.16.11 at 9:10 pm

Boomer redux: never trust a mortgage over 30 years.

#50 Habbit on 10.16.11 at 9:10 pm

#33 westernman
Too funny dude! How are prices holding up where you’re from? Ya sound envious. Leave too early?

#51 penpal on 10.16.11 at 9:10 pm

@ # 17 Dorothy

You’re certainly not in Kansas anymore!

Wake the hell up.

Your grandparents didn’t live in a 4,000 square foot money pit, did they?

You know all your friends real financial situations, do you? More importantly of the boomers generally?

You think that no one will divorce, get sick, suffer financial losses, experience business failures, etc. and be forced to sell? In an illiquid market no less?

Do you really think a lot of people will willingly take in strangers , a.k.a. boarders? Would you?

Absent the liquid financial assets Garth harps on about having, and the lack of pensions, rising costs for taxes and everything else, etc., how do the boomers pay for these places? If they can’t sell, how do they downsize,
thereby gaining the needed liquidity?

Approximately 80% of Canadians have 80% or more of their net worth in their homes when they retire!

I could go on, but you get the picture, don’t you?

Or don’t you?

Give your head a shake lady.

#52 I'm stupid on 10.16.11 at 9:13 pm

Occupy Bay street is going to make a statement Monday. I am curious to see what it is. This movement will not be taken seriously until spring. The nazis were beat in Russia by the winter, let’s see how the protesters do in Canada USA and Europe when Jack Frost is nipping on their toes.

#53 jas on 10.16.11 at 9:16 pm

***** DIRTY TRICKS OF FOOD COMPANIES *****
Garth:

Please allow me to share with the readers the dirty ticks that food companies play and misguide consumers.

1. When a label says ‘trans fat free’ it is not true. Under the current regulation, a product can be labeled ‘trans fat free’ if ‘trans fats’ are less than 500mg per serving. And guess what the food manufacturers are doing? Yes, they reduce the serving size shown on the label!
(we happily continue consuming …)

2. Some of them include the word ‘blue berry’ in the product name and picture of ‘blue berries’ on the package; yet there is not a shred of ‘real blue berry’ in the product.
When confronted, they come up with this absurd reply: ‘Fire Stone’ is a tire brand, yet there is not ‘fire’ or ‘stone’ in it.

It is not just the financial and real estate sector that is misguiding the consumer.

Folks: It is up to us to get ourselves educated and know what is true and good for our physical and financial health. Do not just blindly follow and beleive what you are bombarded with.

#54 Moneta on 10.16.11 at 9:22 pm

Dorothy on 10.16.11 at 6:59 pm
—-
Dorothy,

2/3 of boomers have a portfolio less than 100K so even if their house is paid off, unlike Hansel and Gretel, they will not be eating the bricks.

Furthermore, pensions will most likely get cut or deflated away so those with a guaranteed pension probably won’t be as “rich” as they think they will be.

#55 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 9:31 pm

#48 Mike,

Hi Mike,
Yes I know.
You are a real estate agent and your “friend” did sell in 2 days.
Why not tell us about all the other properties you have not been able to sell in 2, 3, 4 months?!?!?
Why be like that?
Why cherry pick the winner, the one that sold in 2 days?
Don’t you think that is disingenuous?

The funny thing is Mike, if you had saved and invested even 10% of the money you made during the last 10 years of the real estate ‘hayday’ you wouldn’t have to feel compelled to come onto this site and pump your real estate drivel.
You would be on easy street and planning your next 4 week vacation at a villa in Tuscany.
Instead you come to this blog to ‘pump your way to success’
Believe me, Tuscany would be a lot more fun.

Why not learn how to be diversified?
Learn from your own mistakes and don’t ‘mortgage’ your morals to get another sale.
Shame on you Mike.

#56 oslec on 10.16.11 at 9:33 pm

#40 keeping the faith

“#10 Bubu You’re an idiot.”

Hey keeping the faith, Bubu is not an idiot. He is just NOT smarter than the average bear :)

#57 Marc L on 10.16.11 at 9:46 pm

I bet Beach Girl owns 5 of those 1M$ properties – outright. She is a self proclaimed success. Way to go Beach!

#58 Peakoilist on 10.16.11 at 9:54 pm

#30 pete in Barrie on 10.16.11 at 8:13 pm
wrong..mr. Garth’s bunker is located around the environs of Campbellville..let’s all pay a visit?
If you blink passing through you might miss the place. Nice ,quaint, very conservative little village..we still take our dog to the vet there (from living in burlington) because they’re just so darn nice up there.

#59 Westernman on 10.16.11 at 10:11 pm

Habbit…
Envious? Of some half wit in the desolation of Sask.?
You have got to tell me your joking….
Prices holding up? My house is long paid for – lots of dough in the bank – no nagging dame to tell me what to do with my money or time… it doesn’t get any better than this. I just come on this pathetic blog to poke fun at the losers – shallow leisure for me. I don’t have any emotional capital tied up in this .

#60 Trent on 10.16.11 at 10:13 pm

#39 Keeping the Faith

That wasn’t really my point. I stumbled across this blog in the midst of reading and thinking about the current provincial election going on here.

The mindset in the province is quite frightening. Everyone is convinced that the province is booming and that this is a golden age that will never end. There isn’t a politician, economist or real estate expert that will tell you different. Some on the far left will argue that the boom isn’t being shared equitably but no one is looking at the long term. Anyone who says differently would be ridiculed and branded a traitor for speaking such blaspheme.

The two things I find most frightening are:

1) that the housing boom isn’t really tied to anything specific in Saskatoon. Everyone is feeling the pressure to buy because the common wisdom is that prices are gonna go up. But there aren’t tonnes of companies moving their head offices here (except for BHP which could be gone as quickly as they came). Yes, there are jobs here but there aren’t necessarily careers. The University is still by far the City’s largest employer.

2) The rise in Saskatchewan’s economy is tied almost exclusively to the need for fertilizer in China and India. The second potash prices tank (or the marketing cartel falls apart) so does our economy and during a time of growth no one is talking about how to diversify.

I know of many people my age (early 30’s) that have bought a home in the last 4 years. I can think of at least two that bought that have since moved out of province. As far as I know neither was able to sell cause they would have taken a huge loss. I know another couple that tried to up size cause of a growing family but needs there current house to sell for 300k; even though I wouldn’t pay half that for it. They still haven’t moved (a year and counting).

I know this post wasn’t really the right place for making these comments but I feel better having gotten this off my chest. Additionally, I am in search of someone outside the province with some actual perspective to assess whats going on and assure me I am not a crazy person for not buying all the hype.

#61 Bottoms_Up on 10.16.11 at 10:18 pm

Good post.

Had a conversation with a buddy today. He lives in a town 1 hour outside Ottawa. He recently sold his starter home of 3 years…after 2 price drops….and ended up selling it for exactly what he paid in 2008 (after dropping significant money on renovations to boot).

So his story is likely being repeated in these smaller towns, and really does highlight that the major cities skew the averages upward.

#62 Stevenson on 10.16.11 at 10:26 pm

#43 Keeping the Faith

I am glad my words are being heard. Few years ago you had the same though on your mind that maybe next year or next the RE will crash. We’ll unlike most of you, instead of crash others made CASH.

Keep your faith. It’s Sunday don’t you need to go prey at the local RE crash committee?

#63 Bottoms_Up on 10.16.11 at 10:26 pm

#25 othersunnydays on 10.16.11 at 8:02 p
————————————————–
You could leave Canada by going to teach English in South Korea. They’re always looking for teachers (no experience required).

#64 Mike Rotch on 10.16.11 at 10:29 pm

@ 18 bcaltanorthernlights RE Mortgage pre-approvals:

I first went fishing for a pre-approval back in about 2004. Back then, I was five years into my career and pulling down a lousy $64K per year or so. Poor, dumb, salaried schmuck, so the takehome part of this was a lousy $48K or so.

Bottom line is a net budget of $4K per month for all of the living one has to do including surrounding themselves with a roof and some walls.

Anyway, I took my facts the local branch of one of the big five. I did not sugarcoat my financial situation in any way. I had maybe enough saved to put down about $40K, but that would have left me only with a couple months pay in investments, so I was not very comfortable plunking it down. Nontheless, the parents, inlaws, and my debt-slave friends were all badgering me to take the plunge.

Guess what? After running my numbers through their software, those retards were prepared to loan me more than $430K!!

I think posted rates were 7%ish, so lets say I might have been able to get 6%. With a 25 year AM (I wasn’t stupid enough to consider anything longer) I would have been dinged for $2500 per month off my bottom line.

Guess this would have left $1500 to run a car, feed and clothe myself, turn on the lights/heat/water, pay the damed tax bill ($350 to $400 per month sound about right?) have a tiny bit of fun, and set aside a bit so I could eventually retire with positive net worth.

Judging by the NLATB’s expression, my response: “Are you on crack??” was not what she was used to seeing when she told someone they could actually “afford” a nice big home in the suburban wastelands surrounding Toronto.

Anyway, I bought a lesser home a few years later when my income and investment portfolio were considerably higher, and the numbers weren’t quite as idiotic.

Wish I’d listened only to myself and stayed a renter, but I did this way more rationally than most, and I’ll pull through and land on my feet.

Others? No fricking way! As soon as the banks turn off the taps, this is going to get ugly!

#65 Stevenson on 10.16.11 at 10:34 pm

#34 Moneta and #43 Keeping Faith

College and University are for the people who need to feel the secure and qualify themselves to make more then minimum wage.

The greatest and most successful people in our time never went to school to LEARN how to. For example Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zukerberg(facebook), Sir Richard Branson(Virgin empire), Steven Spielberg, and the list goes on and on.

#66 bubu on 10.16.11 at 10:46 pm

40 Keeping the Faith on 10.16.11 at 8:40 pm

#10 Bubu

You’re an idiot.
Writing on a blog is easy.
Having a point and making sense is hard.

At least I’m civilized and I don’t call people idiots… I think it’s part of the education and it looks like you missed that.

Referring to my comment.. if you try to sell a Kia for $100k for sure you will never sell it…. if you sell it for the right price you will sell it in few days… is it hard to understand? Same with real estate… if you have a house and you can’t sell it.. lower the price.

Garth.. who said a house is an investment? First we talk about Canada where the houses are built from wood… Here the land is the only value long term… when you will show me houses 2-300 years old like in Europe then we talk about house value.. until then it is land and location. Short term on speculation we can talk about the value of the houses but not more.

#67 palebird on 10.16.11 at 10:50 pm

#9 Phantom
If you don’t know who Jeff Beck is check the link out at #41. That is Jeff Beck and yes you may have missed out a bit but you can catch up..

#68 The thing in the basement on 10.16.11 at 10:56 pm

51 Penpal

“Approximately 80% of Canadians have 80% or more of
their net worth in their homes when they retire!”

Pls and tx for a source for that?

17 – Dorothy – Mine and many family/acquaitances are similar to the situation you describe. No mortgage, good business plus some investments, and over a decade to go yet ’til 65.

41 Mad Vlad

“Only Iceland’s citizens told TPTB to go screw
themselves, as people are not responsible for a govt.’s
debts….”

I dont think it’s that straightforward. Take the greek situation. People been living high, retiring early with full pension, tax evasion rampant. Have they not benefitted from govt debt?

#69 nonplused on 10.16.11 at 10:58 pm

“And, whatever you do, don’t get old.”

Great post again tonight Garth, but unfortunately the only way to follow the last piece of advice is not pretty either.

I propose a new ranking system: Highest 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Lowest. Then we can just use the day of the week (no 7’s since you and your ghost writer both take Saturday off – well deserved).

I like the illumination of the distilled market tonight. We are seeing the same thing here in Alberta within the Oil & Gas sector. I a company is predominantly oil, they are doing well enough and the service sector is going crazy. But companies that are predominantly gas are dying on the vine and looking to diversify. The long term incentive plans (stock options) for companies like Talisman and Encana are very long term indeed, being 50% out of the money based on current prices. On the other hand CNQ and CNV offer some hope. So, on any given upper-middle class street in Calgary, half the people are heading for bankruptcy, while the other half is getting a new Escalade. All of them are still putting their kids in hockey to keep up appearances.

#70 Bill Gable on 10.16.11 at 11:04 pm

Man, this was a kiler post.

Writers take note – note stylish Turnerite prose. Simple. Elegant.

Scary good.

#71 HDJ on 10.16.11 at 11:23 pm

Dropped into an open-house today (just for the hell of it). Visitors walking through the condo were treated to what I suspect was a real estate plant, a fellow talking loudly to the showing agent. He let everyone within hearing distance know he was a former owner of a condo in the building and just dropped by to visit his old haunt. “It’s a very well run and beautifully maintained building, and I should know because I used to be on the strata council”. When the going gets tough, creativity is required. Beware.

#72 shanks on 10.16.11 at 11:26 pm

thanks for the link Vlad… if memory serves me correct, i am pretty sure that Iraq invaded Kuwait in the 90’s…

#73 Tom from Mississauga on 10.16.11 at 11:26 pm

Hey Keeping the Faith
Nice to read your posts today, some of the idiocy that spills onto this blog comment section is amazing. Good to see somebody challenging it.
Garth,
Went up to 70 30 equity bonds on Tuesday, just like you said we may be in for a little rally here. Can not let just the 1 percenters own all the stocks.

#74 mike on 10.16.11 at 11:32 pm

How much of your analysis is really the result of this being the fall and it being traditionally a slower time in the market. What I can’t understand with your analysis is you keep talking about companies having tonnes of money and earnings being solid, leading a passive observer to assume that this will ultimately lead to higher wages and more jobs, directly related to peoples ability to take on more debt. Your buddy Carney all but has told Canada he isn’t raising interest rates so what in the world is going to slow the housing market down. I just don’t see it.

You need to explain your analysis more than just providing information on places near the bunker that 800K houses are not selling. There are a lot of people on this blog who have looked to you as an authority on this topic.

#75 Timing is Everything on 10.16.11 at 11:32 pm

#33 Westernman – said “The game of self-deception will end in Sask. and places like it.”

Like Alberta, for instance.

#76 GregW, Oakville on 10.16.11 at 11:46 pm

Hi #41 Nostra, Thanks for the links to info regarding M$M vitamins hoax and the radiation lease from F!

#77 Ozy - I beg to differ on 10.17.11 at 12:01 am

To explain: Prices in places like Oakville and most parts of GTA are absurdingly high, because many people that buy, do not really work for the money they get!
Think about it, how many people (in %) are really productive in downtown Toronto for example? Check the restaurants, you’ll see no stress on 90% folks faces or look around in any company organizational structure. They show up for work, take a 75K minimum per spouse, etc. Not to count the $100-1000 an hour ‘consultants, just add up how much dought these folks make, and is a forest of them sucking up on corporate honey dew. So, when these people see 800-1 MIL house, it’s just 4-5 years roughly of their income (before tax and other expenses) and when you COUNT that thier income is not really worked hard for, they exchange it for a PUMPEP-UP house price tag.
That’s the reality Garth, and you know it better. Bottom line, until the so-typical canadian, socialistic, relaxed corporate / government culture continues, you’ll have this phenomena of mass greater fools being parted from thier easy made money.
So, really things won’t change much or very soon, unless they over do it, which is hard to quantify, I think the market has legs for another year unfortunatelly, as I am looking to buy.
Obviously this can’t continue for ever, but with indulgent corporate canada paying 3.5% salary increases and obscenely fat bonuses, benefits, perks, you name it, the Torontonian DOLCE VITTA will continue. Steak and Beer (tons) with that?

#78 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.17.11 at 12:14 am


Bunker Sandwiches, barley sandwiches or beer — which rings a better nom-de-plume?
*
Pretty Pie Pic Countries dumping US treasuries, chart shows percentages of what’s left, and China overshoots US as EU’s top trader; Link in Mark Carney says something positive about the Occupy saga; Link in Capitalists vs. Aristocracy; Megabanks Trying to stop bank runs while 3:40 clip Banks, big biz. looting America; Heists Inc. That’s what the US banks are doing.

China’s RE slump, 50% Haircut and IMF clueless and Trichet a liar? Not so. They seem to getting Germany to do their dity work; Debts in deflationary depression; Currency Devaluation Wars, a.k.a. Financial Sunset; 25:16 clip Steve Keen, and Cartoon is good, story’s a few days old.

Not In Like Flint English MP caught (filmed) disposing of govt. property; Link in El Hierro in between gasps and Lake Mead ‘Quakes Giving headaches and nightmares to anyone who asks; adioactive Plankton Not good for the food chain; Fukushima here An excellent lead-in for a FF to scare the shit outta sheeple; Comet Elenin drops by today, to wish us a Happy Christmas! Unwelcome Publicity TPTB, not lottery winners.

GC 4×4’s or climate change? The climate will always change, no matter what; Water Could be why the US is heading into Mexico; The X-Files Aging half a century in a few days; Iran Just so you know who is pushing for war. Hint: Profits; Military Exercises Just like 9-11; Five Reasons to question Peak Oil (and GW); Birth of a new political party, or is this the one TPTB have created (other than the Tea Party or Occupy).

#79 new_era on 10.17.11 at 12:35 am

Downgraded on my rental cost.

I’ve sold my condo and house in 2008 and 2010. Been renting since and loving it. Just keeping it simple.

Recently I changed rental units with better view/location and over 1100 sqft for 250 dollars less a month in lovely west burnaby heights area. Cost approxiately 1200 per month.

I figure the house is worth approxiate 800,000 + because of locate size of lot and awesome view. Meaning opportunity cost is approxiately 3500 to 5000 per month for the owner.

#80 new_era on 10.17.11 at 12:38 am

Victoria housing prices.

A buddy of mine have been trying to sell for over 8 months. He got an offer several months ago on condition of financing.

After several months the buyers didn’t get financing. Hummm, the probably seen the house prices falling like an anvil and decide to screw the sellers and wait.

The sellers are now in hold mode and decided not to sell because they can’t get the price the wanted. (probably because they don’t want to take a lost)

#81 April on 10.17.11 at 12:55 am

Several highrise condo buildings starting to be built in New Westminster, BC . I see at 6th and Belmont, builder offering 6% on deposits. Never seen that before???

#82 From Mississauga with love on 10.17.11 at 12:58 am

Garth, what say you about the recent news that Carney will be given new flexibility to not target 2% inflation like he used to? This means the interest rate will stay longer far longer than anyone here thought. It looks like they are trying to prevent a real estate collapse here by extending the low period of rates far beyond next year and possibly inflate our way out of this mess. This will be used by real estate agents to push prices further, no?
Please write an article about this. It’s quite troubling.
What do you think?

There is no change to the BoC inflation target range. — Garth

#83 Norton72 on 10.17.11 at 1:07 am

Interesting article :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-to-get-marching-orders-to-look-beyond-inflation-targeting/article2202846/

” …based on public comments by Mr. Carney in the past year, the new five-year mandate is likely to include a forceful assertion of what he calls “flexible inflation targeting,” or his right to respond to economic shocks or dangerous buildups of credit by taking longer than usual to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2-per-cent target.”

Had no idea the BOC’s mandate was reviewed every 5 years.

If the markets roil around neutral territory for a while (1 or 2 years), the uninformed, bet all on your house crowd (the majority) may just keep feeling peachy with their over-extended lives and luck out with low rates. Barring a Canadian event that …OK, OK…there does not have to be an event;

Our folks in the mahogany laden offices are aware, though, of our average, ugly, household bottom lines.

#84 Harlee on 10.17.11 at 1:14 am

Join the club,y’all

http://www.clubsask.com/Whatsnew.htm

#85 BPOE on 10.17.11 at 1:25 am

Mass hysteria makes for good prices, the old supply and demand. The crown jewel of Canada aka Vancouver, demographics and predominant ethnicity is rapidly changing. The new Vancouverite operates out of a herd mentality. This cannot be stopped. Baby boomers can sell in a heartbeat here. But one cannot always get the price they desire. Long term trend intact folks. If you can’t afford BPOE you can always look up The American the true RE (Seattle) pumper on board, lots of cheap real estate down in Washington
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Sadly, in a place like Vancouver, real estate’s being supported by mass hysteria, not economic fundamentals, as people buy into the fantasy prices always ascend. This will not last, but so long as it does, outfits like Royal LePage, CREA or Re/Max will take advantage, and have no qualms in painting a false picture based on unicorn numbers.

#86 An Cat Dubh on 10.17.11 at 1:30 am

Still lots of places for sale in Penticton, and the mayor of Summerland says they are losing 200-250 people per year. On the bright side, my sister and bil sold their place in Prince George, and now only have their oversized house in Kamloops,which they will hang on to. My niece and fiance want to buy a house in Vernon, B.C. I told them I will forward this blog to her as she and fiance are getting quite house horny and think things are different here and that a house is a good investment.

#87 Carp on 10.17.11 at 2:40 am

Wow …. from the farm rental to the estate rental we have done. From farmers to elite we are checking out. Everyone on my new street look like they are ready to talk business! Hell, first day moving I meet the immediate neighbor and went through an interview already …

I would never afford to live here and have a portfolio that will grow for my kids education and my wife’s and my retirement.

In a few years, I’ll buy their home for a lot less and not forsake eduction or retirement. HA!

Property sales in this Ottawa West area are moving nowhere. I can see places for sale over a year on mls. And then they become rentals.

All things come to he who waits ….

#88 Aussie Roy on 10.17.11 at 3:26 am

Aussie Update

The banks’ declining profit growth tells you we are likely to see sizeable redundancies soon in the largest banks. In a small way, some lay-offs have already begun.

In one researcher’s opinion, white-collar job losses are feeding into seemingly well-off suburbs that are already experiencing ”recession-level” unemployment growth.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/job-cuts-coming-to-a-suburb-near-you-20111016-1lrik.html#ixzz1b1OfwZCY

Anglicare Victoria has seen a 52 per cent increase in the number of people requesting financial counselling this year and a 20 per cent rise in demand for emergency food parcels.

Families are finding themselves forced to use charity to supplement their income and access support to advocate on their behalf with utilities providers threatening to cut them off.

For thousands of Australians around the country, life has become unsustainable.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3573856.html

#89 Canuck Abroad on 10.17.11 at 4:41 am

This interactive chart is interesting. Canada’s debt per person is exceeded only by Iceland and Japan.

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

Re Toronto real estate I had a little look through mls.ca yesterday to see what’s available in Davisville, Leaside and surrounding areas. I think real estate agents take photos to make the houses appear wider that they are. Found three houses that I thought “oh, this has potential”. But then when you plug the address into Google Streetview to check out the neighbourhood you realise the house is skinny and has some other major flaw. One was next to a used car sales lot in some desolate part of Leaside. One backed on to a grim looking stripmall and one was surrounded entirely by highrises. Prices around 800k for each. Yeah sure, that’ll happen.

Okay I’m not a serious buyer anyway just curious, so I also checked out the rentals. Found a half dozen that could work. Four of them were short term rental only!!! What’s up with that? Who wants to go to the trouble of a moving into a 3-4 bedroom house only to have to move again 6 months later? Sure I will find something (only need one place after all) but it’s not pretty out there.

#90 Beach Girl on 10.17.11 at 4:43 am

I remember Jeff Beck. That is old. I liked when Keith (coconut) Richards said Mick had a little dick. LOL.

Also, a few years back, the horsey set had a special tax provision for their large estates. The tax laws came through and upped their anty, half of the horse farms sold up. Those people are not stupid. Got out early.

A lot of McMansions are rooming houses of the future. Like Parkdale.

Occupying Bay Street is funny. Are their mothers going to wake up the dopers and pack them a lunch. Too funny. Can’t wait to watch that. Maybe I will go down and say some copper knocked me on my noggin.

#91 captlou on 10.17.11 at 4:52 am

Hello Garth,
I have for the most part always agreed with your opinions but there was a mistake today. It took me only a few moments to locate at least 20 homes that have sold recently in the HRM Halifax for over 400K. I am sure that if the research was done you would find many more. Have said that I do agree with the gist of your coments in that respect.
cheers
Lou

In what time frame and out of how many listings? — Garth

#92 Cow Man on 10.17.11 at 6:47 am

#13 Marc L

MPAC won’t care if they lower assessments. All that happens is the mill rate goes up. Tax bills won’t decrease. The municipalities will get their money one way or the other. If the highest priced homes take the biggest hit however, the lower priced home owners will pay a greater per centage of the taxes as the increase in mill rate will hit them harder. A housing correction will increase tax burden on the lower income individuals, if house size truely indicates income level. Just saying …..

#93 NoName on 10.17.11 at 7:15 am

This is what I think what problem is, here at work I was showing picture of kids to coworkers, but unfortunately only they could see was cracked driway. I was told to rip that %&@*& and put interlock down. people are talking about tens and hundred of thousands dollars, same way I talk about 5 bucks… I just dont get it… Last time I was in bank I was fighting with lady tooth and nail over 0.15% interest rate. something is.wrong with me I just dont get it… And I dont know how to spell… Me stupid forign guy.

#94 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.17.11 at 7:22 am

@ #90 Beach Girl:
A lot of McMansions are rooming houses of the future. Like Parkdale.

Bingo. Look to the nearest ‘burbs near any University campus for a glimpse into the future – those houses have been sliced and diced so many times that you forget that they were initially built for a family. For Universities like York (Vaughn) or UOIT (Oshawa) near the GTA, even brand new burbs homes are converted into rental units.

#95 Habbit on 10.17.11 at 7:29 am

#59 Westernmam
Envious, obviously. Shallow to be sure. Can’t get a good woman eh? Small wonder. It does get a lot better ya need to know it. I guess you get to see a loser every day. Yawn ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

#96 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.17.11 at 7:32 am

“Occupy Victoria” (B.C.) looks a bit like a camping trip. I’m pretty sure these folks would have been camping anyway.

I noticed that Centennial Square is only a block from Mountain Equipment Co-op… maybe everyone was just lining up to go shopping?

#97 Moneta on 10.17.11 at 7:45 am

I know this post wasn’t really the right place for making these comments but I feel better having gotten this off my chest. Additionally, I am in search of someone outside the province with some actual perspective to assess whats going on and assure me I am not a crazy person for not buying all the hype.
——-
Right now we have OWS. That’s a good thing… we’ll put the 1% back in their place or at least try.

However, that’s only phase 1. When their heads are cut off anf funds seized, the 99% will then realize that their wealth was still puny compared to the entitlements that have been promised to them.

That’s when phase 2 hits… the transfer of wealth from the old to the young.

#98 Moneta on 10.17.11 at 7:54 am

A lot of McMansions are rooming houses of the future. Like Parkdale
——
In the US, a lot of the college/university rentals are in Victorians that were built for the nouveau riche of the 20s.

#99 Moneta on 10.17.11 at 8:03 am

MPAC won’t care if they lower assessments. All that happens is the mill rate goes up. Tax bills won’t decrease. The municipalities will get their money one way or the other
——-
Municipalities are an accident waiting to happen. They’ve all been spending like the RE boom will last forever. Taxes never reflect true externalities, and if they did, they would be much higher.

Just one example, how many municipalities require polluters to fund the future costs of restoration? None. That’s why we have parking lots when they close gas sations in prime locations.

So when the bubble bursts, they’re going to keep on increasing taxes but delinquency rates will increase and this will force municipalities to cut services.

The writing is on the wall.

#100 bigrider on 10.17.11 at 8:04 am

#22 Pete in Barrie.

I second that. Would love to see you Garth on the Lang/Oleary show.

I wonder if O’leary would go after you like he did Chris hedges, the march on bayst/wall st guy.,

Would you be scared ? LOL

#101 yorel on 10.17.11 at 8:12 am

#25 “starter house” says it all.

#102 Marc L on 10.17.11 at 8:17 am

Thanks Cow Man.
The Mill rate is their wild card.

#103 wtf????? on 10.17.11 at 8:37 am

The Vancouver Scum ran an article a few days ago about the population of Richmond now topping 60% of new residents and speculators originating solely from the Peoples Republic of China. It appears that even the ‘old time’ immigrants from HK won’t go there anymore ‘because they don’t understand the language or the culture. The PRC has colonized Richmond and now controls the politics with their hand picked candidates on Shitty Council and Fed seats.

Now….I know the snotty Libs will set their hair on fire at the mere mention of profiling….but has the governmen we have left really have a handle on the effects this will have on the community at large? Lets call it for what it is…a special interest group that is starting to suck Canadian tax dollars down the black hole in ways that are strictly biased against Canadians in general……eg…no readable signs in the official languages……no language requirements for schooling or social services….etc etc …all resulting in huge expenses relegated to a people who have paid not one thin dime in taxes into the infrastructure…and as they are ‘retired’ for the most part…will pay none.

When do Canadians wake up and realize they’ve been boned? The Libs created this mass immigration straegy to prop up zero support in the ridings they were weakest in…but the policy has backfired and resulted in no Lib seats and the virtual colonization by mobs of criminal foriegners who have the ‘right’ to access the hardship funds that generations of Canadians built for the people who actually contribuited.

Racist, xenophobic, intolerant comments. Do this again and you are gone. — Garth

#104 Bobby on 10.17.11 at 8:37 am

You are right Garth. There are a lot of overpriced homes for sale here in Victoria and many are sitting empty. I’ve seen them all as I have been walking through many open houses. Of course, many of the agents say there is a lot of interest.
Just had some manual labour completed on my yard. Interestingly, the gentleman was a realtor but times are slow, he hasn’t had a sale and everyone has to eat. Right. Said the official word is that prices will continue to rise but realtor/laborer said it wasn’t possible as people just aren’t buying.
It’s a slow market here in Victoria and almost time to make some lowball offers.

#105 John on 10.17.11 at 9:09 am

The massive ship building contracts about to be issued will save the day. East and west coast boom times await.

#106 cxcroney on 10.17.11 at 9:20 am

After a week off for Thanksgiving the turkeys of all colours are flocking back to Ottawa.

#107 disciple on 10.17.11 at 9:27 am

During the period from mid 2008 to end of 2009, Canadian banks were bailed out to the tune of 500 billion dollars in relation to the mortgage-backed securities global fiasco. That’s 33% of GDP. That’s partly why house prices are way over inflated, and that’s why they will drop by 80%. You can bet on it.

The reason you are not aware of this: well… do I have to say it? Okay, I will… mind control by the media. The same Orwellian doublespeak that the G-man engaged in with a particular Jon C. Coates way back when.

#108 down and out on 10.17.11 at 9:27 am

#17 Dorothy : nice spin on a situation that you have no choice on but remember falling tax revue by your city means cut backs in services etc. which is easier than raising Mill rates . Thomas Sowell in his book Economics(have not read Garth’s new book yet) has a chapter devoted to just such a scene of Boomers hanging on to their urban properties waiting for a sellers market that may never come.Remember even if the property is mortgage free you have lost future use of equity built up in this property to buy something more to your needs (downsize) .He explains how neighborhoods change (Windsor ,southwestern Ontario example) and the real costs of staying put on a house to big for your needs(kids gone) cost your future enjoyment of life.

#109 johnny5z on 10.17.11 at 9:28 am

Builders will build as long as lenders will lend.
Lenders will lend as long as builders are selling and are profitable.

When prices go up, eventually you have 49 buyers and 51 sellers, then prices go down and the whole thing unravels.

#110 johnny5z on 10.17.11 at 9:34 am

PS – thank you Canadians for stopping the freefall in the Phoenix real estate market. Your contribution is appreciated. Now, if you’d just invest in the entertainment business like the Bronfman, we’d sure like the extra cash.

#111 bigrider on 10.17.11 at 9:35 am

Believe me people, happiness comes not from the size of your home nor it’s contents, but from the size of your bowel movements and it’s contents, or, lack thereof.

Ask any old timer, see what he says, see what his priorities are…LMAO.

#112 wendi1 on 10.17.11 at 9:38 am

Jeff Beck played in Ottawa last night (Toronto tomorrow, if memory serves). My ears are still ringing.

By all means, see him and his band if you can get tickets. His bass player is Canadian, eh, and smoking hot.

#113 Herb on 10.17.11 at 9:59 am

Moneta,

a neighbour assessed the future of municipal taxation in Ottawa this way.

In 20 years, the City will either be broke, or own all the houses in Ottawa, because residents won’t be able to pay the taxes the City has to raise, and the City will have to seize the houses for taxes owing.

Perhaps the OWS movement should branch out into city halls. Same crap (approach to other people’s money), different pile.

#114 bill on 10.17.11 at 10:14 am

phantom:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Yardbirds

or the bluesbreakers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mayall_%26_the_Bluesbreakers

should cover the guit

#115 Van Isle Renter on 10.17.11 at 10:22 am

Good article on the MSM’s silly games. Out here on Island realtors crow about prices going up and sales climbing, but when you look at the listings, several have been on for years (YES, YEARS) and most others are coming back on as Price Reduced.

The renters (the not by choice renters like yours truly and other followers of GT) are in revolt and demanding lower rents. So think about it; if the renters are tapped out are they going to be buyers now? I think not.

I don’t understand how the real-tards are able to post such obvious distortions and not get called on it.

My $$$ is liquid and staying that way.

#116 this is wonderland on 10.17.11 at 10:23 am

Interesting column (ad) in the Toronto Star’s moneyville section today. Mark Weislder would like us to believe that if people start knowing the average selling price of homes in your area, gangs of thief’s are going to start arriving at your door step…..or perhaps he means educated buyers. My worry is that people are just stupid enough to believe this bull….

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1068511–your-home-s-sale-price-is-private-information

#117 Marc L on 10.17.11 at 10:25 am

From cbc.ca

Average home price rises 6.5% to $352,600

Higher sales in a number of major markets, most notably Toronto, helped push the average price of a Canadian home up 6.5 per cent in September compared with a year earlier.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday the average price for a Canadian home sold in September was $352,600. That’s a bit below the all-time high seen earlier this year.

The 6.5 per cent annual gain is the lowest seen since January.

The number of homes sold in September was also 11 per cent higher than a year ago.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/10/17/crea-housing-september.html

Exactly what I wrote here last night. The tyranny of averages. — Garth

#118 sam.i.am on 10.17.11 at 10:30 am

cbc.ca Developing News Headline:

Average home price rises 6.5% to $352,600

What will the headline be a year from now?

#119 Jack Sprat on 10.17.11 at 10:30 am

BPOE you said “If you can’t afford BPOE you can always look up The American the true RE (Seattle) pumper on board, lots of cheap real estate down in Washington.”

You are right about one thing and that is that RE in Seattle is definitely cheaper than here in Vancouver. Don’t get me wrong because I do love Vancouver. But I go to Seattle frequently and always have an awesome time. It is funny how two cities can be so similar and so different at the same time. There is something very different about Seattle over that of Vancouver. Seattle has a sweetness and charm to it that we do not but it is so much bigger. They also seem to do a very good job at keeping the traffic moving and providing forums for cultural events to carry on, which is why I am often there. I like the concerts and art shows they are able to bring in as we really do a lousy job with this.

So BPOE I ask you this; With prices so much cheaper there than they are here how long do you think it is before our HAM starts heading down that way? HAM is not in the business of buying high. Instead HAM is in the business of buying low. Seattle seems to offer pretty much everything we have and then some. I can answer that question for you. In the last year I have been going to Seattle I have noticed the Chinese tour buses with BC tabs increasing each time. I go there about once or twice a month. Trust me that the Chinese have Seattle on their radar and it is only a matter of time before it explodes there.

I do not see The American as a RE pumper at all. This is where you are incorrect BPOE. YOU BPOE are the RE pumper who cannot seem to find a way ever to be honest with information. Or you take a needling approach to stir things up. The American just does not allow you to get away with BS and you do not like it at all. Grow up please BPOE and stop giving us all a bad name. For the record BPOE does not represent the overall Canadian attitudes.

#120 Moneta on 10.17.11 at 10:36 am

In 20 years, the City will either be broke, or own all the houses in Ottawa, because residents won’t be able to pay the taxes the City has to raise, and the City will have to seize the houses for taxes owing.
——–
I wonder if the mega cities will still exist.

#121 disciple on 10.17.11 at 11:13 am

There is no such thing as a pathogenic virus, it is a myth. None have ever been isolated, observed, or measured.

There have been virus strains that have been inferred through EM scopes, but these are not pathogenic; instead, are critical to the function of the organism in which they are found.

Plemorphism, is the OBSERVATION, that one microbe can magically transform into another, throwing the ENTIRE paradigm of modern disease theory out the window. But, it is very profitable, eh?

I don’t blame the modern priestly class (scientific dictatorship) for peddling their game. It is their livelihood after all, like the realtors. You guys hammer away at them on this blog. It may be realtors today, but it will be the medical mafia tomorrow, as soon as the health bills come due for the younger generation to pay.

#122 disciple on 10.17.11 at 11:20 am

Growing a set, (sorry I don’t know the equivalent for females) involves the realization that there are no experts in any field. There are only gangs, and exclusive clubs, and mind control. All three are rampant in the financial sector.

You can discover ANYTHING you want to. But you HAVE to want to. And that’s the problem. But it’s not my problem. The purpose of education is not to make money, it is to approach this epiphany. That’s why your real rulers never want you to get a true education. Ultimately however, they will fail, and you will win, if you want to.

#123 skyfalling on 10.17.11 at 11:23 am

It is better to enjoy life, spend time with family or your pet, give and help others. Life is too short to spend time worrying what’s going to happen. Specially in this time where news are manipulated, there is so much greed and contradictory news.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/home-resales-advance-in-september/article2203316/comments/

#124 Stevenson on 10.17.11 at 11:30 am

Who cares about Victoria or Timbaktoo? The majority of the so called RE bubbles are in the most high priced and high demanded areas like Toronto and Vancouver. Until prices start adjusting there and houses sit for months. Nothing is happening but normal seasonal effect. Btw how was the weather last year?

#125 disciple on 10.17.11 at 11:45 am

Dos Equis man, kiss my a$$. Skydiving in a canoe is not as exciting or even as fulfilling as having a child fall asleep in your arms. You can keep your sunsets on the French Riviera surrounded by young females, I will cherish fish and chips dinners with my wife forever. You can keep your Gallardos and Testarossas in various bright colours, I will be faithful to my beater truck until it’s time to get another beater truck. You can keep your rainforest safaris, I will look forward to biking the trails of the Boreal with more zeal because my loved ones are with me.

You must come full circle to know the truth.

#126 this is wonderland on 10.17.11 at 11:52 am

Looking around me in Oakville, all I’m seeing is older cars on the road and homes that are starting to look like their owned by people who are financially taxed and over worked. Yes there are those that can afford the money to drive Beamers and Mercedes, however even these vehicles are getting older and are not being replaced. Take a good look around everything is starting to look tired and unkempt; not a sure sign of ongoing prosperity.

#127 MarcFromOttawa on 10.17.11 at 12:00 pm

Sunlife down over 8% today. I guess that’s what happens when you lose half a billion in 3months. It’s dividens of 5% are unsustainable with ZIRP.

#128 April on 10.17.11 at 12:03 pm

Jack Sprat #119. I totally agree with you re the American and Seattle. i always like reading the American and if it wasn’t for health care I would move to the US.

#129 Aussie Roy on 10.17.11 at 12:18 pm

Aussie Update

Not only are we all the taxman, we all, in one way or another, suffer from the high cost of housing in Australia, driven in part by the tax loopholes around investment housing.

http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/gearing-down-for-more-affordable-housing-20111011-1lisg.html

Clearance rates remain weak as properties are passed in.

The property market’s poor price performance dominated talk at the coalface yesterday, with new figures dashing hopes that spring might yet bring a lift in fortunes for home owners.

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/no-spring-in-the-step-for-sellers-20111015-1lqk7.html

China

Property developer Zhang Xin made a fortune over the past decade on the back of a building boom fuelled by China’s blistering economic growth and the privatisation of its housing market.

Now the co-founder of SOHO China, one of the nation’s leading developers, is worried that Beijing’s efforts to cool the sector are hurting sales and threatening to send some debt-laden property developers to the wall.

“In my sixteen years as a developer, this is by far the most challenging year I’ve ever had, in terms of what we could sell,” Zhang, chief executive of Beijing-based SOHO, recently told reporters.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8361291/china-credit-crunch-hurts-developers

#130 jess on 10.17.11 at 12:23 pm

copper and allegations of price manipulations

Zambia is Africa’s top copper producer

Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Zambian tax cheating complaint filed at OECD
A coalition of NGOs has filed a complaint to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development against Zug-based Glencore International AG and Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals for violation of the OECD’s guidelines for multinational enterprises
Mopani Copper Mines plc
http://www.miningwatch.ca/sites/miningwatch.ca/files/Mopani_Specific_Instance.pdf

The European Investment Bank (EIB) this year froze loans on allegations tax evasion

=================================
http://www.southerntimesafrica.com/article.php?title=The_honeymoon_is_over&id=6265

=
In March former President Banda said copper miners companies owed US$200 million in unpaid taxes.

Incoming Mining Minister Wilbur Simusa suggests that to improve transparency, route all metals exports via Zambia’s central bank . He also claimed that companies keep export proceeds outside Zambia . (copper exports are largely destined for Switzerland and the information is not available in Swiss customs data).

The new tax system will likely to compel them to retain a portion of earnings within the country. He said the current taxation system is fragmented and makes it difficult for the government to trace due revenue from companies. ‘For example the variable profit tax makes it difficult for government to control profit declaration from companies, some of them declare losses when they have not made a loss.”

#131 bill on 10.17.11 at 12:27 pm

disciple:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_disease

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_latent_human_viral_infections

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_diseases_associated_with_infectious_pathogens

#132 Kayak Freddy on 10.17.11 at 12:28 pm

Occupy Toronto should focus on what’s not being told…Corporate lies…Fukushima seems to be a none issue, but recent studies show that levels of radiation continue to leach and destroy our planet…Oh, I forgot, Harper has noted that Iran is our biggest threat! I am a true blue conservative but Harper has lost his mind.

So for the sake of compromise let’s say Fukushima is only 40X worse for deaths than Chernobyl…back to the pure tonnage differential.

Now we are talking possibly 40 million premature Northern Hemisphere deaths over the next 25 years from Fukushima. That 40 million figure is for the 7 months of emission as of today.

So that is 6 million deaths per month. But wait…it’s not capped…so what will happen if it burns for another few months or years as it probably will? Every 3 years of emissions will total 200 million early deaths over a 25-year period. By the 25th year of emissions (in 2036) the expected early death rate would total 1.8 billion people.

What does it all mean? That 33% of the population in the Northern Hemisphere will be early death casualties within 50 years. Kind of like the Black Plague century.

This assumes another major nuclear complex will not meltdown at another location and since we have had two level 7 events in 25 years it likely there will be at least one more in the next fifty years. Those as yet unknown accidents combined could certainly accelerate the death rates.

Once the world leaders realize the citizens have discovered the potential for massive early deaths it might spur them to try some more aggressive persuasion to the Japanese government on capping the runaway nuclear fuel. We shall see, because things are definitely a mess in Japan and radiation is flooding the atmosphere in many major countries of the Northern Hemisphere. They were able to conceal most of the truth about Chernobyl in the pre-Internet days, but that coverup is not going to work as well this time.

#133 bill on 10.17.11 at 12:31 pm

you like the electric guitar?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Gallagher

always worth a listen.

#134 Pr on 10.17.11 at 12:36 pm

#126 this is wonderland
…Beamers and Mercedes, however even these vehicles are getting older and are not being replaced. -Maybe because the old BMW MERCK are better built than the new ones. Just like old building 1930-1950 compare to the 2011.

#135 Jack Sprat on 10.17.11 at 12:38 pm

April, I agree. Although the money I would save onset taxes in the US would be about 35%. I could easily fully pay 100% of the costs for a superlative healthcare plan that would garner me more immediate and better care than what I receive today in our “free” system. If I have a job there, most employers cover at least 50%-75% of those premiums. Can you tell I have been looking into it? For those who use the healthcare there the mortality rate is much lower than here. It’s because of those who do not opt to pay for it that their overall mortality rates show higher percentages than we have. Still not by much though. Either way, it is still cheaper for ether quality care. The difference is we are supposed to think differently.

#136 bigrider on 10.17.11 at 12:45 pm

Look, some regular comments from the various regulars on this blog about the road to happiness. Some say a loyal and loving wife, kids a simple life, others say big houses granite ferrari’s lots of $ etc.

I say it is none of these.

The key to happiness is a healthy colon. Oh ya.. doubt it? You laughing ? Try having an unhealthy one, see how much the stuff in paragraph one will matter.

#137 EB on 10.17.11 at 12:51 pm

#121 disciple – that’s amazing, considering how back in my lab days I designed, constructed, and applied many a virus to many a cell line. Everything seemed to work perfectly according to the paradigm, one discredited 1970 paper notwithstanding. Not that this has anything to do with finance, but there’s a difference between having an open mind, and letting your brain fall out.

#138 Junius on 10.17.11 at 12:57 pm

#60 Trent,

Your comments are very appropriate for this forum.

What you are seeing in Saskatoon are signs of a bubble produced by easy credit and speculation. You also seeing it enforced by two psychological phenomenons know as the weath effect and the recency effect.

People see house prices rise for a long enough period that they can’t remember them falling and they believe it can only continue. Meanwhile the gains in equity cause people to borrow and consume more because they feel wealty and on paper they might just be. However it does not last forever and clearly the signs are now obvious that we are at or near the end.

What happens when the wealth effect reverses is that the economy slows. I believe this is what will push us into a new recession in Canada. Perhaps as early as later this year.

Saskatoon is no different from Calgary, Vancouver or Toronto except in degree.

#139 Victoria on 10.17.11 at 1:03 pm

Van Isle Renter,

My RE agent is very well known – you would know him immediatley and he says property is flat and will probably go down. My girlfriend’s Maclure Mans has been on the market for 4 year and she keeps lowering the price. I have the Private Client Listing Service and no it is not a hot market and prices are not going up in the slightest. Sitting, sitting, sitting.

#140 jess on 10.17.11 at 1:05 pm

What about the tyranny of the “paper entrepreneurs” and those self- financing circles.

What is the formula, “to own the biggest piece of the biggest piece of the biggest piece.

=

Back in 1985 in Alberta, I remember
20% of their customers were not paying interest on loans, mostly mortgages, due to collapse of property values in Alberta.

baseline accounting
they took the appraised value of the property at the time of the loan, guesstimated the value in two years and computed the averge, which became the new appraised value even though in many cases, the property had taken a dive in price.

-the unpaid interest added onto the loan to the limit of whatever the increased artificial value was
-no posted loss but added this unnpaid interest as profit.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,960167,00.html

Does this still stand that all banks in Canada are allowed to averge loan losses over five years, meaning they only write of 20% of the losses each year. Does this smoothing artificially inflate profit numbers?

#141 Victoria on 10.17.11 at 1:05 pm

Moneta,

Rosedale used to be nothing but rooming houses in the 60s. Everyone apparently wanted to live in the burbs – like Don Mills.

#142 Devore on 10.17.11 at 1:15 pm

#89 Canuck Abroad

Okay I’m not a serious buyer anyway just curious, so I also checked out the rentals. Found a half dozen that could work. Four of them were short term rental only!!! What’s up with that?

Must be lots of sellers betting on a good spring market to unload their properties.

#143 Alex on 10.17.11 at 1:19 pm

Interesting piece.

http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/economie/immobilier/201110/15/01-4457609-fievre-immobiliere-quitter-vancouver.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=lapresseaffaires_LA5_nouvelles_98718_accueil_POS7

#144 detalumis on 10.17.11 at 1:23 pm

#125 I would suggest that if you grew up in poverty you would know that money trumps personal happiness every single time. It’s actually people who have no worries about housing, food, transportation and health care costs that say that it isn’t all that important.

#145 Peakoilist on 10.17.11 at 1:25 pm

#107 disciple on 10.17.11 at 9:27 am
hey..though I agree that our banks were bailed out and you’ll never hear that from the media or pundits, I heard or read that it was in the neighbourhood of 50 billion..500 seems a little stretched..where did you get that from? would love to read more..

#146 Marnic on 10.17.11 at 1:36 pm

#46 Keeping the Faith…holy Christ, is it dark up there?

#147 Peakoilist on 10.17.11 at 1:46 pm

#126 this is wonderland on 10.17.11 at 11:52 am
it’s funny that you mention that. We took a drive through Oakville in the summer for curiosity..moved away from there 4 yrs ago. I thought it was looking rough too, especially in the West Oak Trails/3rd Line area. We live in west Hamilton now and everybody complains how rough Hamilton looks, but I think Oakerville is catching up! Like I’ve said before here, there are a lot of McMansions in Oakville with no furniture in the living room and beaters in the drive.
Folks are struggling to carry those huge mortgages, while keeping the kiddies in all the programs.

#148 Alex on 10.17.11 at 1:54 pm

So…I was in Blaine, Washington last week. For those who don’t know, Blaine is a small American town right on the border with the lower mainland. If there was no border, it would essentially be connected to glorious, hellaciously priced White Rock, where $600,000 buys an unlivable tear-down lump of crap.

Yet there I was, just a fifteen-minute bike ride from White Rock (and a fifteen-minute bike ride from where I currently rent), staring at a $189,000 house. A wee bit on the small side at 1300 sq ft, especially compared to the ridiculously excessive mega monstrosities that now mark the BPOE, but in a very pretty neighbourhood with just the right amount of trees, and just a one-minute walk to the Pacific Ocean. A wonderful place for a couple. And yes, it had both granite *and* stainless steel.

Here’s the kicker – the house is brand spanking new. Yet it’s been on the market for a hundred days thus far.

Granted, Blaine is not White Rock in that it is in a different country and is not a bedroom municipality to Vancouver. Still it was quite the moment when we took that short walk to the beach and looked just three miles back across the water to White Rock. Almost made us want to cry. Or laugh. Or curse. In the end, cursing won out.

However, we came away from that day happy. Happy we’re renting. Thanks, Garth.

#149 Daystar on 10.17.11 at 2:02 pm

#17Dorothy on 10.16.11 at 6:59 pm

Your post kind of reminds me of the story of two squirrels who were neighbors to each other. One packed away his nuts in the fall while the other went fishing and took it easy. Winter came and guess who was asking for a handout.

I guess the point I’m trying to make is what is the appropriate reaction by the squirrel who stowed away his nuts so he would have food for the winter. Should he share? or should he not.

Headlines Garth refers to like this one:

http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/average-home-price-rises-65percent-to-dollar352600

Are misleading to buyers because 2 large markets (Vancouver/Toronto) are skewing the numbers of the general reality for most others and these same large markets are retreating over the last couple months. Inventories in general are building, homes for sale aren’t moving as quickly and prices are beginning to drop. Some boomers who need the liquidity for whatever reason and can’t sell know this new feeling now, only to well.

People make mistakes, Dorothy. They blow it because they didn’t think of the future, were blinded by the needs/wants of the day, they just didn’t think and it can happen to us all. It happens all the time not just in investments, but from the people we marry to the careers we choose. As I have yet to meet a perfect person, loss and failure are a part of life (reminded of it, every time I look in the mirror, ouch).

If its a mere 1 in 10 in real estate that get into trouble while forcing another 4 in 10 to tighten their belts significantly, look out, its what took the U.S. market/economy down to where it is today. The question remains in terms of what the rest of us are going to do about those mistakes. Are we going to say to ourselves, “their foolishness is not my problem” or are we going to say “why didn’t I tell them about greaterfool.ca?”

If we ask ourselves the simple questions like “will they take advantage of me if I help them?” or “how much can I afford to give and where over what timelines” or “what can I do to help fix this problem from voting on up”, chances are we are on the right track. If, however, we say “their foolishness is not my problem” then we are denying the very simple fact that what now stands before us is everyone’s problem and its not like some of us didn’t see it coming so I ask simply, that we think about our reactions to the storms that lay ahead more carefully which I know most do fine for themselves, but now for some, is the time to think about the rest of us. We are, after all, products of our environments, both micro and macro and I would hope that within those environments there is sympathy for mistakes of our own.

#150 Daystar on 10.17.11 at 2:17 pm

A simple heads up to the 8 percenters out there (those who have investments that occupy Bay St.). We are quite likely to see a selloff trend that continues into the rest of the month. The markets will recover once again, from there! It won’t be as severe as the prior selloff bottoming around Oct. 4th, but investors will feel it, so… adjust accordingly. My thoughts anyway, best of luck fellow investors, remember to keep your egos and greed in check and y’all have a great day!

#151 disciple on 10.17.11 at 2:18 pm

Anyone else having problems with accessing Realtor.ca today? Seems excessively slower than normal…

#152 Peakoilist on 10.17.11 at 2:30 pm

#41 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad
thanks for the link to “The creature from Jekyll Island”,the summary for each chapter is very good…might be a good one to buy..fascinating material.http://www.activistpost.com/2011/10/g-edward-griffin-den-of-vipers.html
for anybody that missed it..

#153 bigrider on 10.17.11 at 2:42 pm

Every possible ETF imaginable has been created long and short imaginable EXCEPT an ETF that shorts RE or more specifically, Vancouver or GTA RE.

Horizons 2X bear condo ETF please one day soon !

#154 lebensaar on 10.17.11 at 2:44 pm

@disciple:

Why are you wasting our time with your inaccurate virus-related comments? Get a life. Oh, and, you are wrong.

#155 lebensaar on 10.17.11 at 2:46 pm

Garth, why are people going on about Fukushima radiation and viruses? Is this normal?

#156 bigrider on 10.17.11 at 2:47 pm

Not sure about granite and stainless steel as being worthwhile home upgrades but let me tell you, nothing beats sitting on a Toto toilet. Great after use functionality too.

Don’t laugh, think about how much of your lifetime is spent sitting on the can. Isn’t that worth 5 large ?

#157 captlou on 10.17.11 at 2:53 pm

Just a thought – I wonder what will happen to Nova Scotia real estate when Irving Shipyard gets the biggest share of the naval contract?

I hear Irving have just bought out Ramar Construction to build homes for the new influx of workers!

Their shipyard in Shelburne had $8 million to rebuild their drydock. Coincidence, Eh?!

#158 eva on 10.17.11 at 2:56 pm

check out Vancouver stats..sobering.

http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=September&year=2011

#159 disciple on 10.17.11 at 2:57 pm

#131 bill… thanks for the links. Disease is a state of being, and depends on the central nervous system, not on the abundance of a microbe. PLEOMORPHISM. Look it up and post some links, eh?

#137 EB… It has everything to do with finance, since Big Pharma is vitally important to your balanced portfolio. I humbly ask: where did you acquire the “many a virus”? The work you did does not disprove at all what I am saying. You can disrupt cells by injecting them with anything. Yes, the purpose of most viruses are to burst the nucleus and the cell. But the production of such in vivo is a SYMPTOM of the disease state and not the CAUSE.

It’s a struggle to get others to understand the above statement, but I find solace in similar struggles against the scientific dictatorship. Just like the ancient sea-kings who monopolized the trade of tin from Cornwall by maintaining the myth of a flat earth, the medical mafia today monopolizes the trade of pharmaceutical soup by maintaining the myth of the germ theory of disease.

Perhaps read up on Andre Bechamp to get a wider perspective?

#160 eva on 10.17.11 at 2:57 pm

“New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,680 in September, the third highest volume for September in 17 years.”

Quote from real estate board of BC. September 2011

#161 disciple on 10.17.11 at 3:10 pm

This is for you Peaky…

Re: 500Billion Canadian Bank Bailout: this news is so 2008. Didn’t even make it to the MSM until 2010.

http://trivcap.wordpress.com/2010/04/04/canada-housing-bubble-wait-and-see-before-drawing-a-conclusion-about-canadas-banking-regulatory-framework/

#162 Stanley on 10.17.11 at 3:12 pm

That said, a $530K single is now worth $450K??? I hope that is true in GTA.

#163 Devore on 10.17.11 at 3:18 pm

#149 Daystar

So in keeping with your squirrel analogy, you’re saying most people think “it’s summer now, winter will never come”?

I hear squirrel stew is good eating huddled around the fireplace.

#164 Van guy waiting on 10.17.11 at 3:19 pm

@Eva

What’s your point on these stats? It’s old news already. Sales down, listings up.

#165 Beater Bill on 10.17.11 at 3:23 pm

#147 People with beaters in the driveway struggling to keep their kids in all the programs.

Peakoilist, while some of those driveways you observed were struggling with their beaters, I can assure you that not all who have beaters in their driveway are struggling. I have a beater in the driveway and a nicer car in the garage(still nothing compared to what I can afford) and it is not because I am struggling. The house is paid and my investments are substantial. I am not into conspicuous consumption and I feel cars are nothing but a waste of money but a necessary evil. I drive my cars from brand new into the ground to maximize their value to me. Sam Walton drove a used pick up truck. Oh and it also acts as an opposite magnet to repel thieves who think a beater must mean poverty for the inhabitants.

#166 From Mississauga with love on 10.17.11 at 3:26 pm

#82
Garth, I did not mean the target changed but rather that Carney is no longer obliged to meet the target inflation rate within 8 quarters. This means that he intends to keep low interest rates far longer and induce inflation to effectively deflate the debt. That’s not conducive to lowering the prices and would keep the prices high where they are.
No? Let me know what your assessment of this is. It looks like Carney wants to absolve himself of meeting the inflation target anytime soon. It looks like Carney knows higher than even today’s inflation is on the way and he wants to be able to say that he does not have to bring it down to the target rate as quickly as the public would want him to. He is wary of increasing the rate and blowing up the bubble.
Any comments?

#167 rp1 on 10.17.11 at 3:29 pm

#123 skyfalling: “It is better to enjoy life, spend time with family or your pet, give and help others. Life is too short to spend time worrying what’s going to happen.”

I heard a lot of that from the US in 2005-2007. It didn’t help families tossed into the street. Is there no end to the self-serving bullshit?

#168 maxx on 10.17.11 at 3:42 pm

#51 penpal on 10.16.11 at 9:10 pm

Agree 100%.

It’s a classic verbal manoeuvre by those who now feel threatened to the marrow after having become accustomed to having the upper hand for far too long and now feel a palpable, significant change in parameters is imminent.
Illness (kids/grandkids/spouse), medical costs not covered by the state, future assisted living costs, death (kids/ grandkids/ spouse), divorce, job change, kids move away, kids need cash, no money for travel or goodies due to RE related carrying-cost increases of all kinds….as you’ve pointed out, don’t figure in their currently smug lives.

Taking in strangers to make a buck in this day and age? Now that’s a quality of life risk if ever there was one- especially later in life when the focus should emphatically be on increasing it before the inevitable…

#169 Dorothy on 10.17.11 at 3:46 pm

#51 – Penpal
“Your grandparents didn’t live in a 4,000 square foot money pit, did they?
You know all your friends real financial situations, do you? More importantly of the boomers generally?
You think that no one will divorce, get sick, suffer financial losses, experience business failures, etc. and be forced to sell? In an illiquid market no less?
Do you really think a lot of people will willingly take in strangers , a.k.a. boarders? Would you?
Absent the liquid financial assets Garth harps on about having, and the lack of pensions, rising costs for taxes and everything else, etc., how do the boomers pay for these places? If they can’t sell, how do they downsize,
thereby gaining the needed liquidity?
Approximately 80% of Canadians have 80% or more of their net worth in their homes when they retire!”
_________________________________________

I agree that the large McMansions occupied by some are going to be cost prohibitive if their owners don`t have the financial wherewithal following retirement to pay for the upkeep. However homes can be downsized when necessary, even in a buyer’s market, provided the price of the smaller home has fallen at the same rate as the larger home.

As for unexpected life situations such as those you mention, no-one can prepare for every eventuality but, as I pointed out above, when people ARE forced to sell for some reason the loss may not be as great as first appears if the cost of replacing the home with something smaller has also fallen.

And regarding taking in boarders, while it may not be everyone’s choice, it is an option if/when your back is to the wall, and one I would definitely consider if I were in that situation. I know some people who do it just for the companionship it provides, not the income. If you live in a university town it’s a good way to stay in touch with the younger generation, while still having a couple of months free to go on vacation.

And as for lack of liquid assets, most boomers do have SOME liquid assets (although probably not as many as Garth would advocate), and almost all will be picking up the max on CPP and OAS. For those with modest lifestyles and no debts, that will be sufficient to ensure they do not starve.

While I agree that retirement for such people will be much more frugal that ads such as “Freedom 55” have made them come to expect, it will be no different than the retirement many of their grandparents experienced. So at the end of the day what this recession/financial crisis will result in is a return to simpler times when people were less materialistic and got their enjoyment from simpler, less expensive pursuits. Yes, life WILL be different, but it won’t be the end of the world!

#170 Van guy waiting on 10.17.11 at 3:48 pm

We all know about fool and The Greater Fools. But the greatest fools are, the one that didn’t make $ off yese fools in this time of opportunity. I’ve sold my home twice now in the last 6 years. I am renting now and by the time I’m back in, I’ll own a sfh that is paid off. Thanks fools!!!

#171 BPOE on 10.17.11 at 3:48 pm

YYYYYEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS with a double fist pump
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/10/17/crea-housing-september.html

#172 disciple on 10.17.11 at 3:58 pm

Here we go again with the war drums and Iran. By now, you should be able to deconstruct the mind control of the media and understand that your real rulers see war as a way of servicing their (read: your) debt problems. Don’t lose sight of the big picture. All this madness will eventually come to an end.

#173 Bill Gable on 10.17.11 at 4:00 pm

Noted that Fukushima will be the story of the Century – it is not getting better and millions are at risk.
Why is this NOT being reported?
To keep the population from freaking.
BC Residents are going to be feeling the pain. Hawaii will be impacted as well, and it breaks my heart.
Sorry = off topic a bit – but when this starts to get worse – how much is your House going to be worth?

#174 Cato on 10.17.11 at 4:02 pm

Not surprisingly the start of the great Canadian unwinding seems to be occurring in exactly same manner as the US unwinding 5 years ago. How bad things get will remain to be seen, but the pattern is eerily familiar.

It starts with McMansions that sit in nether region of affordability and desirability. The truly affluent wouldn’t be caught dead living in one so the primary buyer is a working stiff speculating with debt & leverage. These were never meant to be homes, just places to live for a few years before flipping to next sucker for an easy buck. Truth is many of the owners can’t afford to live in em if they wanted to and are financial zombies juggling debt trying to keep the charade afloat. That charade is now falling apart.

The specuvestors buckling is what starts the whole chain reaction. Many of these specuvestors are big spenders, they are gamblers by nature. They create a whole lot of employment for the smaller fish in the building trades. They spend anything they make on high priced toys which in turn drives retail spending. The demise of the specuvestor throws everyone into disarray. Suddenly large million + properties are now no longer being built and many enter foreclosure. Greed is quickly replaced by fear. Work dries up for those in the building trades, now they too have trouble holding onto their 500K homes and entire market starts getting compressed as supply overwhelms demand. Consumer confidence is shaken by falling property values and recession ensues starting a downward economic spiral.

Its already started, Canadians (with plenty of gov. prodding) made the same idiotic mistake made by the rest of the developed world. Like many in the middle class around the globe they won’t recover financially in this lifetime. Its game over for them but the world will go on for the rest of us without them. The world is not in an economic crisis, the middle class is. Wealth is being shifted from those who no longer deserve it to those who do. For every Canadian knocked down to a lower standard of living there are 10 people in India getting a leg up. This rebalancing is making many public companies rich – its why earnings will remain strong & opportunities plentiful for those able to take advantage of them.

#175 Dorothy on 10.17.11 at 4:03 pm

#54 – Moneta
“2/3 of boomers have a portfolio less than 100K so even if their house is paid off, unlike Hansel and Gretel, they will not be eating the bricks.
Furthermore, pensions will most likely get cut or deflated away so those with a guaranteed pension probably won’t be as “rich” as they think they will be.”
________________________________________
If they have $100,000 to cover emergencies, the max OAS and CPP (which are both indexed), no debt, know how to live frugally, and are willing to do a few odd jobs or take in a boarder if necessary, I think they’ll do better than many expect. Particularly if they also have a small company pension as well, which many do as they were working in the days when they were still available.

Your costs go down following retirement. You no longer require such an extensive wardrobe, are not paying to commute, and can take the time to cook less expensive meals. You can also take the time to find ways to cut your other costs, by doing things such as coupon clipping, or more research into the cost of things to find the best price, etc.

There are also lots of recreational things pensioners can do for little or no cost. Every town has volunteer opportunities, as well as senior’s discounts on paid recreational activities, such as the swimming pool, or even the municipal golf course.

Retired people with few liquid assets are going to have to lower their retirement expectations, and get a bit more creative, but they won’t starve and life will still go on, albeit differently than they probably expected. But different doesn’t necessarily mean worse. Life is what you make it.

#176 Mister Obvious on 10.17.11 at 4:08 pm

#48 Mike

Friend just sold today 2000 sf house including basement suite in Victoria in two days for asking price of 700,000.

—————————

Interesting. This one in Victoria is probably comparable and yet a little bit cheaper. Its been sitting for over four months and is now on its second realtor. Pretty sleepy, response-wise.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10925273&PidKey=1893704614

#177 Habs 76-79 on 10.17.11 at 4:09 pm

Just a thought.

In recent times I’ve taken to enjoy watching the BBC show TOP GEAR. I get it off YOU TUBE. If I may. One episode was a race challenge from London to Oslo, between Jeremy Clarkson driving a McLaren Mercedes Coupe and James May along with Richard Hammond taking an airplane to New Castle and then a ferry to Oslo.

One important thing I noted here was how freaking awesome these Western European countries public highways and multi-lane freeways were along of course with incredible public transit too. It reminded me about my travels in Europe a long while back. I mean here in North America we could only dream to have such quality. BUT WHY? Because even though I bet most Europeans do not like paying too much taxes but they accept higher taxes and as result get WAY better services and general infrastructure as compared to say Canada.

Seeing Jeremy drive through France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway in that awesome McLaren Mercedes Coupe blew me away. You can see the near 2,000 KMS of hwy he drove BTW that is almost as long as Vancouver the Winnipeg was for the most part near perfect roads with stunning tunnels and the bridge connecting Denmark to Sweden was INCREDIBLE . Us over hyped Canucks would never do that. We think Confederation Bridge between Nova Scotia and PEI was stunning and it is a nice bridge but HAH! nothing compared to that one separating Denmark and Sweden.

As for the ferry May and Hammond took, it would make a B.C. ferry look like a steaming pile of DOG POOP!

So yes, most Europeans pay more in taxes compared to us and the USA but dammit they get a lot more for their money. I’m not saying Europe is perfect, HELL NO! But we in smug Canada think too much about ourselves at times and humility and quiet reserve use to be a hall mark of this country but it has been more and more replaced in recent times with a level of ignorant smugness and growing level of insular vision.

#178 Dorothy on 10.17.11 at 4:17 pm

#108 Down and Out
You appear to be suggesting that areas in which Boomers are forced to hang onto their McMansions may fall into urban decay due to municipal government cutbacks. Well, that’s always a possibility but, given that the Boomer Generation has always been known for its political activism, I doubt such a scenario will happen.

However those Boomers who recognize that the drop in their McMansion has been accompanied by a similar drop in the price of the property they downsize to, and are therefore willing to price their McMansion realistically, will have no trouble selling and moving on. One has only to read this blog to know there will always be buyers if the price is right. The ones who will be stuck will be the ones who refuse to drop the price to whatever its worth in the RE market at the time, stubbornly failing to recognize the fact that they’ll make up the difference by paying an equally lower price for the one they buy. And as that kind of stubbornness is really just greed, I don’t have any sympathy for folk like that.

As for Boomers who CHOOSE to stay in the McMansion following retirement, despite the high cost of maintaining such a property, well I can only assume they can afford it. And if so, then why shouldn’t they?

#179 Coho on 10.17.11 at 4:17 pm

The 20 lowest prices in Burnaby. How can one resist!

New listings, and indeed some ARE LISTING, over to one side that is. What sane person would pay these prices if they weren’t programmed/indoctrinated to think house prices will grow into the clouds just like trees do. The old saying “what goes up must come down” must not apply to house prices….

http://www.househunting.ca/vancouversun/homes/5552912/story.html?tab=PHOT

#180 Peakoilist on 10.17.11 at 4:24 pm

#165 Beater Bill on 10.17.11 at 3:23 pm
glad you’re doin’ well and I’m sure you’re right about the opposite magnet..here in Hamilton you just have to have two Hyundais in the drive to repel thieves. ( i love my Accent..but I’m pretty sure its not going to get stolen..)

#181 Peakoilist on 10.17.11 at 4:37 pm

#161 disciple

I was referring to how many $$ went directly to the Big 5 back in ’08/’09..
thanks for the link,very interesting, I think you’re right that it’s going to blow up when RE tanks.

#182 Aaron - Melbourne on 10.17.11 at 4:41 pm

#41 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad
#152 Peakoilist

thanks for the link to “The creature from Jekyll Island”. I’m adding this to the collection.

http://www.activistpost.com/2011/10/g-edward-griffin-den-of-vipers.html

One of the all-time useless books. — Garth

#183 Kevin in Winnipeg on 10.17.11 at 4:41 pm

“80% of all millionaires became so through real estate. Get in on the main floor!” – http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11210940&PidKey=1505564697

Come to Winnipeg, supposedly you will become a millionaire.

#184 jess on 10.17.11 at 4:47 pm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44908122/ns/us_news-life/#.TpxfhZw9zYl

On Oct. 4, “Occupy LA” protesters joined in a 200-strong protest with Gudiel in front of the $26 million Bel Air mansion of OneWest CEO Steve Mnuchin.
=========
Rinse lather repeat
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09001a.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OneWest_Bank

SEC Charges Former Mortgage Lending Executives With Securities Fraud
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2011-43
Washington, D.C., Feb. 11, 2011 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged three former senior executives at IndyMac Bancorp with securities fraud for misleading investors about the mortgage lender’s deteriorating financial condition.

The SEC alleges that former CEO Michael W. Perry and former CFOs A. Scott Keys and S. Blair Abernathy participated in the filing of false and misleading disclosures about the financial stability of IndyMac and its main subsidiary, IndyMac Bank F.S.B. The three executives regularly received internal reports about IndyMac’s deteriorating capital and liquidity positions in 2007 and 2008, but failed to ensure adequate disclosure of that information to investors as IndyMac sold millions of dollars in new stock.

=
IndyMac was founded in 1985 by David Loeb and Angelo Mozilo, who also founded Countrywide, another big mortgage lender whose loans helped fuel the housing boom. Countrywide was taken over in 2008, just ahead of IndyMac’s failure, by Bank of America Corp.

#185 Al on 10.17.11 at 4:48 pm

just heard on the radio that real estate prices and sales volume broke records in September 2011 lead by the GTA

#186 Hashnugs Inthebong on 10.17.11 at 4:55 pm

#53 jas on 10.16.11 at 9:16 pm

Nothing wrong with misleading advertising imo. I am selling a set of stained steel washer/dryer. Not my fault people assume I meant stainless steel washer/dryer.

#187 poco on 10.17.11 at 4:59 pm

#158 eva

check out Vancouver stats..sobering.

http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=September&year=2011
______________________________________________

i’ve been using this link to try and track new listings and sales in the tri cities—to see if it matches up with what i get from my realtor links–have to say it is pretty acurate

i’ve only started tracking these for the last 2 months using this site, but the 3 year graphs confirm what i had had found in the tri cities since the downturn in 2008
______________________________________________

#164 van guy waiting—–take a few minutes and look at the 3 year price index of the areas listed –start with Vancouver –quite a chart eh !!!
now go east from Van and examine all the other areas–quite a different looking chart for most other areas

as i and others on here have been saying since the downturn in 2008—“many areas did not have those huge increases in price as Van did.”—many times when CREA were publishing price increases for the entire housing market in Canada, areas outside Van were actually declining in price as shown on the graphs

and still i find many properties within the tri cities area that are selling for less than the owner paid just a few short years ago

#188 jess on 10.17.11 at 5:04 pm

132 Kayak Freddy

DNA database of the the dead – that fish in the grocery store might not be what is says…could be dolphin.

Anybody watch THE COVE –

#189 Dorothy on 10.17.11 at 5:06 pm

#149 Daystar
I realize people make mistakes and that sometimes the mistakes of the few cause problems for the many. That describes perfectly the financial mess the world is in today, and if I knew what to do to protect the many from the mistakes of the greedy few I’d be a rich woman.

Canada already has a social safety net to catch those who fall on hard times, so I’m not sure what it is you think individuals should do to help those who are in financial difficulty. I already volunteer a lot of my time to various causes, and donate to the food bank and various charities. But I’m not a rich woman, and am not prepared to put my own financial future in jeopardy in order to save others from their own foolishness.

I have plenty of sympathy for people who fall on hard times through no fault of their own, but absolutely NO sympathy for those who drove themselves into financial ruin through selfishness and greed.

#190 smoking man on 10.17.11 at 5:13 pm

just when you thought it was safe to jump in the water (equities) you hear the music from jaws. Lol. Don’t you just love code smiths

#191 T.J. BONES on 10.17.11 at 5:15 pm

Sir Garth OMG Another serial killer from BC.

#192 Westernman on 10.17.11 at 5:17 pm

Habbit;
Envious?…not. Shallow?… no, smart. Get a good woman?… I use them for what they were intended for and then get back to my life. And yes i see losers everyday … like you for instance.

#193 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.17.11 at 5:34 pm

#68 The thing in the basement — Duly noted, but there are reasons why citizens living on such a tiny piece of rock in the middle of an ocean got themselves so worked up by somebody else’s — the IMF and World Bank — dictates.

Could it be that TPTB will use HAARP to jumpstart their ‘canoes into action, making Iceland a nice tourist destination with a population of zero? Seagulls and fish excepted, of course!

Current populations — Iceland and Greece. Sheeple are expendable!

Remember Pompeii. It’s happened before, and will happen again.

#72 shanks — G’day shanks. Correct on the Iraq invasion in the early ’90s under G.H.W. Bush, but there is a ton of stuff there which, as usual the m$m doesn’t report.

Whatever the politics, a couple of links — Kuwait One and Kuwait Central Bank. Libya, Iran, etc. also have central banks, and under Islamic (Shariah) law, are prohibited from charging interest.

#76 GregW, Oakville — Hi Greg. Kinda interesting, with the cycle change in full swing now, all these things happening — ‘canoes in Iceland, Canaries and Krakatoa, along with Fukushima — all of them lipsynching with one another — the world has awoken from its slumber of Happy Days!

#107 disciple — “. . . Canadian banks were bailed out . . .” — Absolutely correct. Who says there is no such thing as a free lunch? Then F shifted all the banks mortgage stuff onto our backs, so they will walk away scot free.

Right here Nice being a politico and spending other people’s money wantonly!

#111 bigrider — “. . . bowel movements and it’s contents, or, lack thereof.” — Rather good description of where we are!”

#132 Kayak Freddy — “Oh, I forgot, Harper has noted that Iran is our biggest threat!” — dubya said the same thing about Sadaam, so the US went in and destroyed a country simply because they could, much like Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Fukushima (via the Stuxnet virus), created by the US and Israel which shut all the safety systems down.

Depopulation? You bet. dubya is a proven liar, Harper is no different. Birds of a feather, etc. Ultra neocon BS, that’s all.

#152 Peakoilist — It is very interesting how these individuals work, and a good speed read. Cheers!
*
Garth, as we’re all doddering toward the finish line (the conclusion of our life cycles), I thought it would be best to think of you like this. It’s not sexual, you know!

#194 Ladner, south of Richmond on 10.17.11 at 5:39 pm

Racist, xenophobic, intolerant comments. Do this again and you are gone. — Garth
I am not that poster, but I read that post carefully. I live in Delta, B.C. and work in Vancouver. I have heard every single point in that post made by born-in-Canada Chinese-Canadians. Every single one, and not just once or by one person. The general attitude expressed is becoming close to a consensus point of view among Lower Mainland residents not in the RE business.

That does not make it acceptable. There used to be a ‘general attitude’ in Mississippi, too. — Garth

#195 bill on 10.17.11 at 6:38 pm

#131 bill… thanks for the links. Disease is a state of being, and depends on the central nervous system, not on the abundance of a microbe. PLEOMORPHISM. Look it up and post some links, eh?

gee why dont you? enlighten me .to me it looked like a discredited theory…..

#196 allister on 10.17.11 at 6:53 pm

#130 jess

Good old boy Wilbur will find out that that the copper producers will quit producing. Then he’ll take over the mines and run all the equipment into the ground. Then the pay cheques will bounce, then the knowledge people will leave. Ever hear of another African conutry called Zimbabwe? Same story different mines.

The lost continent!

#197 Dorothy on 10.17.11 at 6:55 pm

#168 Maxx
“It’s a classic verbal manoeuvre by those who now feel threatened to the marrow after having become accustomed to having the upper hand for far too long and now feel a palpable, significant change in parameters is imminent.
Illness (kids/grandkids/spouse), medical costs not covered by the state, future assisted living costs, death (kids/ grandkids/ spouse), divorce, job change, kids move away, kids need cash, no money for travel or goodies due to RE related carrying-cost increases of all kinds….as you’ve pointed out, don’t figure in their currently smug lives.
Taking in strangers to make a buck in this day and age? Now that’s a quality of life risk if ever there was one- especially later in life when the focus should emphatically be on increasing it before the inevitable…”
_________________________________________
Boomers ARE becoming concerned about whether or not they’re going to have enough to retire on, but not for the reasons you seem to think. My spouse and I came to this country with only $1000 in our pockets. We’ve worked hard in the intervening years, always living beneath our means, and often in remote locations most folks wouldn’t want to be in. We’ve scrimped and saved, put two kids through university, have no mortgage and no debts, yet we’re still very concerned retirement will be a bit of a financial struggle.
We don’t live in a Mcmansion, we don’t have granite and stainless, but we each have a modest pension and a small RRSP. We also know how to be thrifty. We clip coupons, watch for sales, shop around for the best interest rates, and low fee mutual funds, have dabbled in the stock market (in a very small way) and generally have done everything we can to try to position ourselves well for the uncertain future.
But I’m sick and tired of a younger generation who’ve lived beyond their means, run up all kinds of credit card and other debt, bought houses they couldn’t afford with little or no down payment, who drive expensive cars and DO have homes with SS and granite, blaming people like me for all their financial woes! For your information I HAVE taken in boarders in the past, and am quite prepared to do so again. The couch in my living room is 22 years old, and most of the rest of my furniture is about the same age. We live mainly on liver, sausage, ground beef and tuna, supplemented with lots of fresh fruit and vegetables, and consider ourselves to have a healthy diet. But I bet YOU wouldn’t be prepared to eat as frugally. So get off your high horse, learn to live BENEATH your means, and stop blaming others for your economic woes.

#198 Paully on 10.17.11 at 6:56 pm

#136 bigrider

“The key to happiness is a healthy colon. Oh ya.. doubt it? You laughing ? Try having an unhealthy one, see how much the stuff in paragraph one will matter”.

Actually Bigrider, there is indeed life after colon! I don’t have one at all. Instead I have an internal pelvic pouch (j-pouch) with ileoanal anastamosis. (Look it up if you care). Sure, a properly functioning colon would be preferable, but a j-pouch beats a sick colon all day long.

The best part of having no colon is that, for sure, I am less full-of-crap than the rest of you!

#199 Mike Rotch on 10.17.11 at 7:12 pm

#135 Jack Sprat RE: Health Care

“……..It’s because of those who do not opt to pay for it that their overall mortality rates show higher percentages than we have……….”

You speak as if all Americans have a choice on whether to buy health coverage or not. I am pretty sure it’s costs make a standard health plan unattainable for most of the millions who have no coverage. Tough old world, I guess.

“………Either way, it is still cheaper for ether quality care. The difference is we are supposed to think differently……..”

I’m not going to dispute that the care is better quality for those who can pay for a good plan, or split the costs of an adequate plan with their employer.

Calling it cheaper is idiocy – I can remember seeing somewhere the US government per-capita costs for healthcare were twice as high as Canadian governments’. This is for a system that does far less for a much lower percentage of citizens. When you tack on the costs borne by private citizens and their employers, the costs are astronomical relative to ours.

#200 Moneta on 10.17.11 at 7:16 pm

Peakoilist on 10.17.11 at 1:25 pm
#107 disciple on 10.17.11 at 9:27 am
hey..though I agree that our banks were bailed out and you’ll never hear that from the media or pundits, I heard or read that it was in the neighbourhood of 50 billion..500 seems a little stretched..where did you get that from? would love to
———;
Just looking at CMHC… we know that insurance-in-force + guarantee-in-force have gone from 625B in 2008 to over 849B in 2010. So that would be a special form of bailout in the tune of 215B.

Then we have the commercial paper… which has not been written down yet I think??? But doesn’t a load of it resurface after 7 years?

It was stealth but it happened.

#201 Tre on 10.17.11 at 7:18 pm

The Canadian housing market “is like the fountain of youth,” said one analyst. Rising real estate values, he explained, have helped drive consumer spending and provided fuel for the home building industry, a major source of jobs. According to the CMHC, residential development represents about 20% of the domestic economy.

People better wake up and learn housing=risk. They said the same thing in the US sunbelt about the “housing economy” and it didn’t work out too well.

#202 canali on 10.17.11 at 7:23 pm

20 most ”affordable”/cheapest homes in Burnaby BC….sheesh!
http://www.househunting.ca/vancouversun/homes/5552912/story.html?tab=PHOT

#203 jess on 10.17.11 at 7:28 pm

BMB(Better Markets Blog)
The Wall Street Bailouts DID NOT Make a Profit
The Wall Street bailouts cost trillions and many of those costs continue today. There is no accurate, honest and complete accounting of the bailout costs that results in a profit, but that myth, indeed, that lie, continues to be spread by some who don’t know better, but by many who do or should know better.

READ MORE
http://www.bettermarkets.com/

#204 ballingsford on 10.17.11 at 7:46 pm

Yuck, buying sucks! I heard today that by 2015 electrical rates will rise by100% in Ontario. That would suck if it was true. Sounds like it might be true though.

#205 Moneta on 10.17.11 at 7:54 pm

But I’m sick and tired of a younger generation who’ve lived beyond their means, run up all kinds of credit card and other debt, bought houses they couldn’t afford with little or no down payment, who drive expensive cars and DO have homes with SS and granite, blaming people like me for all their financial woes! For your information I HAVE taken in boarders in the past, and am quite prepared to do so again.
——–
Dorothy,

It’s not just the kids. IN fact, most of the debt of the last decade is on the boomers’ balance sheets.

#206 Devil's Advocate on 10.17.11 at 7:55 pm

#65 Stevenson on 10.16.11 at 10:34 pm
#34 Moneta and #43 Keeping Faith

College and University are for the people who need to feel the secure and qualify themselves to make more then minimum wage.

The greatest and most successful people in our time never went to school to LEARN how to. For example Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zukerberg(facebook), Sir Richard Branson(Virgin empire), Steven Spielberg, and the list goes on and on.

REALLY!?! Are you sure about that? Maybe you should do a little research. “Research” you know check out the library or online for that matter. But of course one need not “learn” in order to succeed in life let alone post nonsense on such blogs as these.

“I never let my education get in the way of my learning” Mark Twain

#207 TurnerNation on 10.17.11 at 8:02 pm

Garth here is a picture for your blog. Title could be: family.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/catdogk.jpg/

#208 Devil's Advocate on 10.17.11 at 8:13 pm

Stevenson;

You don’t go to school to learn as much as learn how to learn. A mind is a most invaluable tool but like most so complicated tools you do have to know how to use it in order to get the most out of it. You might do yourself some good learning a thing or two about your own mind before critiquing others on theirs.

#209 Tony on 10.17.11 at 8:21 pm

#4 Smoking Man on 10.16.11 at 5:45 pm

You forgot the “baltic dry index” and to a lesser extent the spot and future price of uranium.

#210 Dorothy on 10.17.11 at 8:23 pm

#205 – Moneta
“It’s not just the kids. IN fact, most of the debt of the last decade is on the boomers’ balance sheets.”

But it IS the indebted “kids” who are blaming the boomers for all their financial woes. And I’m tired of it.

People (ALL people) need to look to themselves and their own failings when it comes to figuring out why they’re in a financial mess.

#211 miketheengineer on 10.17.11 at 8:26 pm

Garth:

It breaks my heart that they can’t sell.

I just guess that panic will set in soon…and then the sale of century will happen.

Too bad all of the people who actually would have loved to be part of that lifestyle (like me) have completely lost interest in those types of properties and dreams and lifestyle.

Good luck, McMansion owners.

All of us will be chanting ….how low can you go!!!

#212 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.17.11 at 8:27 pm


#182 Aaron – Melbourne — No problem!
*
Orange Crush It may be close to bargain time; MoveOn.org should be MovingAway..forgood; Edgy “Israel must be scared out of their mind if they are trying to claim OccupyAMERICA is a Muslim plot! Even for Israeli propaganda this is really lame!” wrh.com; Signs Doncha jes’ luv ’em! Anarchy Instead of cracking down on their economy, Italy chooses to go after dipstix; Obomba’s Smoke Screen He has to use something; Lowe’s Store Closings 1,950 jobs gone; China – US “In China do mothers get their kids to eat their vegetables by saying, “There are people starving in America!?” wrh.com; Glen Beck is giving dubya a run for the money as one of the dumbest dipshits ever made. Soros bankrolls Obama; both follow Marx, and Marx was a commie.

One Per Cent Who are they; US Fed Not much chance for savers; 2:13 clip Bernanke says if the US Fed is audited, they will cause an economic collapse, so what have they got to hide? Greek Unions Strike “The strikes and revolution are not just about cuts. The Greek people realize (as should you) that all this government debt is actually a form of slavery!” wrh.com; An Excellent Example History rhymes and repeats — 2K years ago to now.

3:08 clip Libya. “A Skype chat I had with an insider: I don’t know how long the charade can go on for.”; Mexico – Iran But the US needs Mexico’s *and Canada’s) water, and Iran’s oil; Bahrain “This is the government the US government supports!” wrh.com; Charges Dismissed The system is already plugged with very little moving; GW Update “The real cause for this prediction is the Sun.” and Goregate with cartoons; Dangerous Fluzone High Dose; War and Populism Duzzent seem to work anymore.

0:53 clip Hillary Clinton. How she must love the ‘net; Syria Clear who is behind the mayhem there; Crimes Against Humanity by corporatism?

#213 Tony on 10.17.11 at 8:31 pm

#9 the Phantom on 10.16.11 at 6:38 pm

I guess you wouldn’t remember “Jimmy Page and the Black Crowes” either?

#214 Daisy Mae on 10.17.11 at 8:42 pm

Dorothy: “Retired people with few liquid assets are going to have to lower their retirement expectations, and get a bit more creative, but they won’t starve and life will still go on, albeit differently than they probably expected. But different doesn’t necessarily mean worse. Life is what you make it.”

***************************

You make alot of very good points. I appreciate your tenacity.

#215 Smoking Man on 10.17.11 at 8:44 pm

#209 Tony on 10.17.11 at 8:21 pm

My next post coming working on it is a beuty………ya know I mest up beuty

#216 Daisy Mae on 10.17.11 at 8:54 pm

Ballingsford: “I heard today that by 2015 electrical rates will rise by 100% in Ontario. That would suck if it was true. Sounds like it might be true though.”

*********************

Well, there goes the rest of our disposable income….

#217 Habbit on 10.17.11 at 8:55 pm

#183 Westernman
Don’t recall ever having met you.Luck I guess. Can you not ever answer a question? Your type just blame,lash out and accuse but have nothing of any value to offer up. Like a rat in a corner. Heh if ya keep it up there won’t be anyone left to dump on but yourself! Just keep pullin’ that pod. Won’t be wasting any leisure time responding to you again. Unfortunate about your disabilities. By the way how’s your Mom?

#218 vyw on 10.17.11 at 9:07 pm

#175
Dorothy – you make good points.
I think the need for high balance RRSPs are overstated if you retire mortgage free and with some savings.
There is CPP, OAS, GIS and if you are lucky perhaps a pension, rental income, part-time income.
Actually a lot of seniors today live in their homes that they bought in the 70’s for $50 – 70,0000 and they are doing just fine. A seniors couple can cover their basic living costs for less than $24,000 a year – and they should be able to get that easily from CPP, OAS, GIS.

It does make sense for them to sell the property and just rent but hey they don’t want to…all the power to them.

I’ll try to have some extra savings and at least be mortgage free before retirement.

#219 Toon Town Boomer on 10.17.11 at 9:08 pm

#60
Trent
Well if your crazy for not buying in to all the hype then I’m just as crazy as you. Actually, your right on and your not alone in your thinking. It’s all smoke & mirrors.

#220 Jeff Beck on 10.17.11 at 9:35 pm

See ya in Vancouver people!

#221 45north on 10.17.11 at 9:55 pm

Racist, xenophobic, intolerant comments.

Moneta: Right now we have OWS.

However, that’s only phase 1. When their heads are cut off and funds seized, the 99% will then realize that their wealth was still puny compared to the entitlements that have been promised to them.

That’s when phase 2 hits… the transfer of wealth from the old to the young.

yeah kind of like falling into a black hole, fascinating at first then just plain terrifying

what I mean is that there is a kind of fascination with the housing bubble – what will real estate agents do? what will Fanny Mae, CMHC do? what will the banks do? However the fascination fades as people realize that they have to make do with less.

I get the feeling that the fascination stage is ending.

#222 The thing in the basement on 10.17.11 at 10:08 pm

193 Mad Vlad – for approximate population comparisons

Iceland = Metro Victoria BC
Greece = Greater Chicago Statistical area

I think Chicago is already bankrupt and nobody would care (or know) if Victoria went boobs up!

Dorothy – many good posts tdoay, thanks.

#223 MixedBag on 10.17.11 at 10:11 pm

Garth, I really like how you summed up what Real Estate is to people, and what it can become:

“Its emotional tug is overwhelming, especially when we confuse security with a mortgage and an address. But it can equally be a destroyer of wealth”

That juxtaposition you did with the last sentence was great writing. You coalesced these thoughts beautifully. I say this because, for many people, security is a mortgage and an address, and when you write it that way, that the two are not equal, it makes you think, and question what you’ve been told all your life you need to do when you grow up. The next sentence brings to the forefront what you planted earlier, in a bucket-of-cold-water-in-the-face kind of way.

(Really the whole paragraph was great, just this excerpt spoke to me especially).

#224 rental monkey on 10.18.11 at 12:35 am

@ Mixed Bag: Garth has amazing prose.

#225 rental monkey on 10.18.11 at 12:39 am

I bet he has more influence now than ever. And it is going to be amazing..watching this unfold. You can feel the jitter in the air. Word of the day: Stay liquid.

#226 MixedBag on 10.18.11 at 11:56 am

@rental monkey

I still have to figure out his euphemisms, as I’ve only recently started reading this blog. Orange guys’ shorts? Is that ING or just any bank, or is it the NDP? HAM, F , and [email protected] I’ve figured out.

#227 Westernman on 10.18.11 at 4:41 pm

Habbit,
Silly,silly Habbit… of course I answer questions, just not from buffoons like you. But you are right about one thing, you shouldn’t waste any more of your lesuire time responding to me ( although being unemployed and living in your mother’s basement I’m sure you have lots of ” lesuire ” time to spare )
As for my mother I would say I at least know who my mother is – unlike you.