Be thankful (blog dog edition)

That you did not buy a condo in the West Kelowna development below from pre-construction plans, for full price!

Hi Garth: Long time reader, never submitted anything before.

I am a real estate appraiser and was recently working in the Kelowna market.  Drove past a condo development and saw something that sums up the current market.

I know you like unusual pictures, so take a look at these….would suck if you had bought one of the units at full price. Hope the picture makes one of your write ups!

Thanks, Ben

And Ben was not the only one who was struck by the fact these spanking new condos will probably be giving the Kelowna market an additional spanking.

Garth, sign of the times ?  This building is brand new, bank owned, and empty. No bubble bursting in West Kelowna…….

D’Arcy

Something else to be thankful for in Calgary, where the power-of-sale file is growing thicker each day. Give thanks you were not the poor guy who tried to flog this nondescript suburban particle board and faux-stone palace for a few years, then lost it, and finally watched as it sold for little more than half its original ask price. Blog dog Tim was a keen observer, and sends this:

Here is the list history on this sucker. I love seeing all caps in a MLS listing = desperation. There will be some good vultching even north of the border in time.

2007-10 1.6M optimism
2007-11 1.79M excitement
2008-03 1.99M euphoria
2009-10 1.55M denial
2009-11 1.51M fear
2010-01 1.49M panic
2010-03 1.48M dispondency
2011-09-20 1.179 PENDING capitulation
2011-10-07 1.05 SOLD fini

Sold for 65% of original asking price
Sold after 4 years on market
Sold for $336/sqft

2011 Appraised value 1.23M (taxes +$7000/yr)

Listing decription:

Another great BANK OWNED property!!! Remarkable 2-story Estate home on quiet cul-de-sac.. Total of 6 bedrooms and 3.5 bath. Features 4 bedrooms upstairs. 5pc ensuite with steam shower & heated floor in master bedroom. Formal dining room, den with gleaming hardwood floors on main floor. Dream kitchen with a granite island and walk through pantry!A huge full width deck for BBQ lovers. Fully finished “walk-up” basement includes inslab heating,two bedrooms, full bath as well as a spacious media & game room and wet bar to enjoy. “Triple garage”! THIS SPECTACULAR HOME IS CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES; INCLUDING PRIVATE, PUBLIC AND SEPARATE SCHOOLS, REC. CENTRE, SHOPPING, PARKS, AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. Property is at “SOLD AS, WHERE IS” condition. No warranties or representations. Please don’t wait, It won’t last.

And Paul in Vancouver has a $1,188,000 treat  – ideally designed for children or those little cement people that you stick in your garden. Be thankful you are not idiot enough to buy this.

Garth, check this vancouver listing.  I happened upon the for sale sign after an appointment nearby.  The lot is a postage stamp, the backyard overlooks a liquor store, and it is steps from congested Granville and 70th ave.   This listing truly may be the tipping point.  If this place sells for ask price…

 

Enjoy. Thanksgiving’s about turkeys. We will soon be mobbed by them.

113 comments ↓

#1 bcaltanorthernlights on 10.09.11 at 6:32 pm

Could I be… no I don’t want to be 1st
Happy Thanksgiving all.
Thank you for the great blog Garth.

#2 NFN_NLN on 10.09.11 at 6:53 pm

A University graduate finding work as a restaurant server is the best example they could find for a booming jobs sector? Something smells fishy!

In September, she secured a job as a server with Model Milk restaurant.

“I was pretty pleased (with her job search),” said Kilotaitis, who graduated from university in April.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Stunning+rush+continues+Alberta/5522975/story.html#ixzz1aKNWYZTy

#3 wicked as it seems on 10.09.11 at 6:58 pm

Thanks for taking the effort to post these beauties on a holiday weekend! The litany of properties owned by the greatest fools showcased for years to come as the R/E end game.

#4 oslec on 10.09.11 at 7:01 pm

Happy Thanks Giving!!!
Thanks for keeping it real and for keeping us grounded…

#5 DonDWest on 10.09.11 at 7:05 pm

Some people will soon be discovering that Vancouver is NOT the center of the universe! Imagine that?

#6 timo on 10.09.11 at 7:08 pm

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/uk-the-truth/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

pass out the bull-horns people and talk up a storm.
:)

#7 Habbit on 10.09.11 at 7:13 pm

Have a great Thanksgiving Garth and thanks again for your efforts.

#8 Beach Girl on 10.09.11 at 7:27 pm

I am happy, Happy Thanksgiving to all. And for those who are not, I wish you the best, that things might get better.

#9 Observer on 10.09.11 at 7:32 pm

I Live in a suburb of Vancouver , that house will sell no problem ( probably for over asking). People here think that real estate always goes up.

In personal conversations most people think that in 5 years real estate here will double in value. It is because “everyone ” wants to live here,We are a “world class” city unlike Kelowna ( thats why 50% off @ the condo development – Kelowna is just Surrey of the Okanagan), We have a great climate (unlike Calgary – brrrrrrr!), it is “different” here, we are not the states, our banking system doesn’t lend like the states, Every millionaire in China is going to move here, the oh so familiar, we live in “The best place on Earth”, interest rates will never go up, the “lifestyle” offered here.

The smugness, delusion & arrogance is palbable. I truly think that “if” the real estate bubble pops here ( oh yeah , I forgot – there is no bubble). If real estate values do go down here it will be a long, slow resistance filled path. People will not be willing to lower prices.

In conversation with a neighbour about real estate I mentioned that Seattle seemed to fair better than some of the other areas of the states, only declining about 30% in value. This was of the top of my head – not sure if it is correct.

He said that wouldn’t happen here because “everyone” wants to live here. I said I think it will – he looked at me like I was completely insane. Garth has said that real estate is highly emotional – I believe this factor will keep “values” high here for a painstakingly long time.

Keeping up with the “Jones” is ingrained in the culture here.Real estate and stuff (cars,boats, clothes, canucks tickets) are huge status symbols.For this reason ( I can’t believe I’m saying this)it is “different here”. People will do anything to own as it is such a status symbol – damn the debt and the math.

I don’t personally see any slowing down of real estate in my little corner.

Only time will tell

#10 Harlee on 10.09.11 at 7:37 pm

I had a good laugh at that first real estate photo posted: 50% off sale tags on condos. Turkeys indeed!
Thanks again Garth for another entertaining blog article and Happy Thanksgiving to you,and all.

#11 Snowboid on 10.09.11 at 7:42 pm

Looks like the developer of the West Kelowna condos was in big trouble already – to the tune of $ 87 million!!

http://tinyurl.com/3dehvrt

#12 LS on 10.09.11 at 7:45 pm

Honestly I’ve seen lately the prices in Vancouver become even more ridiculous.

People are asking 25% or more over last year’s ridiculous prices. There are many listings now that show tipping points, but to me, this one is an excellent example.

This old timer is on a 33 x 122 foot. Aside from the fact it’s in Point Grey, as Garth would say, it’s on an unremarkable street. Listing price $2.060! Good luck to the sellers. $2 million for a 33 foot lot on the west side now.

http://tinyurl.com/6jolruo

All this said, it’s obvious we’re at the tipping point. Sales for September are 3rd lowest in 10 years and listings the 3rd highest number for September in 10 years.

The video put out by the RE Board of Greater Vancouver on the September 2011 Housing Market is a good watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OVVWgZPywT0#!

#13 Jackie on 10.09.11 at 8:00 pm

Happy Thanksgiving. My husband showed me your blog a few years ago and you saved us from ourselves.

Thanks God for :
1) I am not a turkey.
2) I am not a Vancouver home owner.

Somehow (1) and (2) are similar……
Thank you again from my heart.

#14 Onemorething on 10.09.11 at 8:02 pm

Enjoyed the Thanksgiving Ball this weekend in Kuala Lumpur (that’s in Malaysia folks).

500 Canadians, High Commissioner and various Trade Comm’s and sponsors like Scotiabank, Talisman, Bombardier etc.

Speaking to many who have property back in Vancouver and asking me where I think it’s gonna go!

I said simply “You are not going to like what I’m about to say, so tell me now if you value our friendship!”

Many have bought places in the Okanogan and Victoria, some Whistler Props for retirement. I simply asked them if they owned them outright?

I also asked them what percentage of their net worth was in bricks and mortor. I found out that most have 80-90% in this asset and these are folks in their 50’s thinking of retirement in next 3-5 years and of course double digit RE values increasing.

I said, especially for these locations, if you are looking at using your RE to subsidize your not so distant retirement you better be real careful.

Do however expect your taxes to climb, do expect your services to drop, do expect your children with high ratio mortgages to come knocking, do expect your younger one’s to expect you to cough up a downpayment.

Dont expect growth, dont expect if you put your house on the market tommorrow to sell it any time soon and dont expect the banks at anytime to offer a reverse mortgage as they know where RE is heading.

Expect the goverment to hold the property values high for at least 2 years after the melting occurs so dont expect to at least get a break on property taxes.

I remember in 1991 Unionville watching homes dump, keys in mailboxes and people paying double for taxes on properties worth half.

Made it clear to them I would be the only one in the room to tell them this and I had no invested interest whatsoever in presenting them with rumors and wishful thinking!

It’s going to happen, not if, when! What shall we do?

If you have had a run up in RE on these props you would be smart to sell and take those profits, move your contents into a storage unit and stay liquid and re-enter the market a star!

A star for making the right call initially, a star for having liquidity for your children and a star for only having to work into your 70’s, not 80’s-90’s.

I finished by stating there are many net worth millionaires on paper. That was true for Califorclosure, Lost Vegas and Floridead before the truth came out!

#15 Onemorething on 10.09.11 at 8:07 pm

oh yeah, and stay out of the EURO. Euro TARP underway! That’s means the BP and CHF too! Back into USD’s!

#16 THE TITANIC on 10.09.11 at 8:13 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8770945/China-faces-subprime-credit-bubble-crisis.html

Ouch…think I’m going to start investing in pulp and paper considering how much money is going to have to be printed to keep this fiat system afloat.

#17 Nemesis on 10.09.11 at 8:21 pm

Ahem… Cough. Cough.

[VREAA] – PostCardsFromTheBlastRadius #8 – The Okanagan Bust – ‘Tuscany Villas’, Shields Down!

http://tinyurl.com/6bbeomv

#18 Nemesis on 10.09.11 at 8:37 pm

An oversight. How churlish of me.

Thanksgiving… Seasonal BestWishes to the Dogs ‘O TheBlogs… each and every one of you.

And of course, especially our host – the Hon. GT. As bears go, and I know he’d deny this, he’s more of a Teddy than a Grizzly.

PS – ‘Nem’ prefers the Yanqui holiday to the GWN version… and will be celebrating same in Motown (North & South) next month. One never knows, he may even surreptitiously photograph/lampoon the infamous ‘bunker’. [Just kidding, GT – I wouldn’t try doing that without donning ballistic armour first].

#19 Aussie Roy on 10.09.11 at 8:51 pm

Aussie Update

Commonwealth Bank in mortgage pledge as asking price for homes slashed in some states

http://www.news.com.au/money/banking/commonwealth-bank-in-mortgage-pledge-as-asking-price-for-homes-slashed-in-some-states/story-e6frfmcr-1226134491845#ixzz1aKrF9hqa

10 ways agents cheat

1. Gazumping. When a deal has been agreed to, some agents still show people around the property hoping for a better offer.

2. Value a property at a low price – and then sell it to a friend or colleague.

3. Use scare tactics such as pretending to receive offers to get people to make a higher offer.

4. Neglect to pass on all offers to vendor in hope of achieving a higher one later on.

5. Revealing a vendor’s confidentail information to buyers

6. Overvaluing houses to secure business from sellers.

7. Dummy bidding – enlist friends to cast fake bids that push prices up.

8. Make up a very low offer. This shocks the seller into accepting a genuine offer which is far lower than the original valuation.

9. Fake evidence that other properties in the area have sold for an overly high price.

10. Erect for sale/sold signs at homes the agent had nothing to do with to give a false impression.

http://www.news.com.au/money/real-estate-agents-dirty-tricks-revealed/story-e6frfmci-1226160079065#ixzz1aKrSQa25

VICTORIAN homeowners have lost more than $290 million over the past three years selling properties for less than what they paid for them.

Alarming figures that point to a hidden crisis in the property market reveal 5427 vendors lost an average of $54,000 on investments gone wrong in the three years to July.

The Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands are the state’s leading loss-making suburbs

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/home-owners-300-blow/story-fn7x8me2-1226162101573

Lehmans sues Goldman

Lehman is seeking $100 million in damages from the Goldman-run U.S. Real Estate Opportunities fund, alleging the fund’s “unjustified” termination of the deal just two days before the sale was to close.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203388804576615370068530208.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

#20 Stevenson on 10.09.11 at 8:52 pm

The world is in turmoil and real estate everywhere else is cheaper and better. Why are international buyers still purchasing properties in Vancouver and Toronto? They are bring bags of cash over so I assume they are not brainless zombies.

#21 Maddog on 10.09.11 at 8:52 pm

Remember Steve Jobs: “stay hungry, stay foolish”.
Happy Thanksgiving Garth!

#22 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.09.11 at 9:39 pm

Happy Thanksgiving!

Be thankful for being able to do math… like this example:

Lawrence Park House For Sale, $1,295,000.

Nearly identical House For Rent, just down the street, $3,700/month

If you had about $300,000 for a 20% down payment and other closing costs like the land transfer tax, and put that all into the House For Sale, you’d still have a $1,036,000 mortgage. Put that into a 25-yr amortization mortgage @ 3.5%, and you’ve got a $5200/month mortgage payment.

So, not only did you drop $300,000 for the privilege of buying the first house, but you also lose probably $2000-$2500 every single month on the payments (after property taxes and maintenance), plus you lose on the investment income of that $300,000 (e.g. $18,000/yr or $1,500/month in dividend income from 6% yielding preferred shares like these CIBC preferreds that yield exactly 6%).

So, using that wonderful thing called math, buying the first house costs you about $4,000 per month (almost $50,000 lost per year).

Happy Thanksgiving indeed!

#23 Bigboy on 10.09.11 at 9:53 pm

The first photo, that has to be the picture of the typical balanced investor, (talking about the dog) looking pretty relaxed! Soldier on people! Garth’s plan right?

#24 Popeye the sailor man on 10.09.11 at 10:04 pm

#2 NFN_NLN on 10.09.11 at 6:53 pm
A University graduate finding work as a restaurant server is the best example they could find for a booming jobs sector?

I know! I thought the same!

#25 Hovering on 10.09.11 at 10:25 pm

happy thanksgiving dogs.

thank you for your continued efforts Garth.

I wonder if you’ll be the “man who predicted the fall” in the coming years. all mainstream and shaved

shudder

#26 Occupy The Pub on 10.09.11 at 10:44 pm

All’s quite on the news front. Did the occupiers go home for Turkey or just the news anchors?

#27 Min in Mission on 10.09.11 at 11:22 pm

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

Excellent posts, and some good responses, over the last few days. As always, great to see new ideas and opinions.

Unfortunately, my wife, and I, are one of the people that have the vast majority of our net, in our house. However, we purchased a number of years ago, have only a few years to go to pay it off (3 approx). Plus, we have some other retirement income that is dependable, at least for now. We will just have to try and be flexible and adaptable. We are just grateful to have a home.

Garth – Thanks for putting up the posts on a long weekend.

#28 Dan on 10.09.11 at 11:42 pm

Take a look at Kelowna on MLS, about 3k properties for sale ~ 106,000 people.

Calgary ~8000 homes on MLS, 1.1 million people.

Calgary doesn’t look too hot for real estate, Kelowna looks downright scary.

Circling.

#29 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.09.11 at 11:44 pm


Happy Thanksgiving, y’all! “Be thankful (and grateful). Enjoy. Thanksgiving’s about turkeys. We will soon be mobbed by them.”

Darn right I’m thankful and grateful, not to be up to my eyeballs in debt when TSHTF, which it is already doing in different parts of the world.
*
#21 Bigboy — “Garth’s plan right?” — Absolutely right, except I’m still waiting for my long-lost sister’s third cousin, twice removed to croak!
*
Running Out Of Time “The cascade effect of failing European banks may not wait until the first part of November, and cannot help but have a nasty effect on American banks as well, because of the interdependence and interlinked nature of international banking.” wrh.com; Economic Historian Check back 25 years and see what happened then affects us now; Black October This may not, uhh, end well or soon; Plunderment Guess this is happening thruout the west; GS may take a loss; Confidence? What confidence? BoA Six mln. is a nice severance.

Pic Of The Day Contains a naughty word; Ann Coulter is so bizarrely off the deep end, she may well be a man in disguise. “This isn’t rocket science, people. End the bailouts, put the crooks in jail, and get the money out of politics.”; Dexia, Quatar and Confusing; Four Min. clip Etc., etc.; GS must be right, ‘coz they know what they’re talking about; Reflections from a few Greek gods.

Sept. 11, 2001 is well recalled. Does anyone recall what happened the previous week, Sept. 4, 2001? The answer is in two parts: Who stood to gain the most from what happened the following week, and then follow the money. Link in; Tokyo’s Tapwater Not pleasant and Tokyo again; Smart Meters One, Smart Meters Two and Smart Meter Costs; Obummer As he has spent more than a whole bunch of president’s combined, this may be an idea whose time has come; Syria Iraq and Iran co-operating? Seems so.

The Koreas Another hot-spot; Smoking Man — Your call on bad education looks good; 4:42 clip “The War in Libya is ABOUT to start…(gold); Fast and Furious Courtesy CIA, weapons found in Mexican’s home; 14:30 clip Detroit, first-hand account from a teen of what it’s like.

#30 Aussie Roy on 10.10.11 at 12:05 am

Stevenson on 10.09.11 at 8:52 pm

The world is in turmoil and real estate everywhere else is cheaper and better. Why are international buyers still purchasing properties in Vancouver and Toronto? They are bring bags of cash over so I assume they are not brainless zombies.

…………………………………………………………………..

LOL – No not zombies, just “Greaterfools” who think because prices haven’t crashed they won’t. Why?, simple, because its different here, this time and they totally ignore all the simularities between busted housing markets and those that haven’t, yet. They look at the small differences to base their opinion on and ignore the overwhelming number of simularities.

That is not an investment strategy its a stupid dangerous belief that only a fool would fall for.

Bubbles only burst when the number of greaterfools runs out, never before.

#31 Tom from Mississauga on 10.10.11 at 12:21 am

Hi Garth
Today reading the Globe and Mail reminded of your Aug 7th post about not selling your solid, profitable, dividend paying companies in a panic. Like Daylight Energy.

#32 Crash Callaway on 10.10.11 at 12:25 am

I am Thankful that I am so poor that I couldn’t even come up with the “Zero” to put down on the zero down scam.
Not even family & friends would risk lending me Zero!

I am grateful that I have to stand on a chair just to reach the poverty line.

#33 TurnerNation on 10.10.11 at 12:26 am

“Model Milk restaurant”? Sounds bizarre.

– Here is this month’s Remax Condos Toronto puff piece take:

It appears to suggest Toronto resale condos are now cheaper than Toronto pre-sale condos (on a per square foot basis)?
If so this is bad news for the flippers.

http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/blog/septemberoctober-market-report-2011/

“Investors are only concerned with prices and our new projects are now approaching the $600-700 per sq. ft. range. Only ten years ago we were talking $300. On the other hand, New York prices have been at the $1,000+ range for several years and are not moving much. We all like to compare ourselves to New York but we are not New York in terms of either money or appeal. Resale prices are always lower – today about $500-600 per sq.ft. Investors only buy if they believe they can sell for more later and the price difference with New York is now quite small”

#34 Aussie Roy on 10.10.11 at 12:39 am

Aussie Update

High Unemployment of the educated wealthy shows Australia is heading towards recession.

http://afr.com/p/national/job_losses_hit_middle_australia_8Vg1XcSi7WjKotYvIKsxCN

Demand for workers weakened further in September bolstering the case for a rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next month, says ANZ.

The latest ANZ job ads survey, which measures companies’ hiring intentions, sagged 2.1 per cent in September following a revised 0.7 per cent fall in August. Jobs ads in newspapers were flat in September while jobs posted on the internet declined 2.2 per cent.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/falling-job-ads-hint-at-rate-cut-anz-20111010-1lgnl.html#ixzz1aLnKZQ1Y

#35 Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth on 10.10.11 at 12:40 am

Guys, a scoop… I just passed LAX and SFO on biz. All the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and Indians are here. I guess it’s up for Vancouver!!!

13 flights a day from mainland china to LAX trans pacific. 9 flights from India transpacific and a further 9 via London or Dubai. 3 Korean, 5 Japanese too…

The local outlet isfullof them. I think they figured outyhings are cheaper here!!!

SFO is close to the same… Wow! Now you know before the realtors!!!

It is a scoop! Nobody knows this, not global (not even a sigh of journalistic pre-climax), not CTV, not globe and mail, nobody actually figured out there is a HUGE amount of land with beauty and climate just south of the border!

And I thought everyone here was Mexican, I think they are called American!!!!

Go figure, all along we were told we were special and there was nothingof interestdown south – and speakingof interest, their locked in mortgage rates are some 3% for 30 years. Imagine the stability-WOW!!!

#36 Bill Gable on 10.10.11 at 12:51 am

The best of Thanksgivings to the Turner family and all my fellow blog dawgs.

#37 Smoking Man on 10.10.11 at 1:38 am

Screw thanksgiving its more elike thanks taken.

Tax farm slaves givith the machine takeith…..

Had a lap dancer at the husteler club on burbon street….yes fell in love she was cute from autin texis they have guns and are pissed……………
but

Can’t realy say who they are pissed at( dont want to invoke the delete button) but heads will be on sticks soon. She dances for the duds running the army so close to a coo not funny…….

what scared me was she is so pissed at free masons, hello Im in the club// bunch of old lossers I never went back….

Shibalith damn now my toung will be torn from the roots…. Try it mo fos I played hockey

#38 In Van on 10.10.11 at 1:45 am

#8-observer- I hear you. Van is full of people who are convinced the wave will never crest. For the past 8 years (barring brief interlude in 2008) they have been correct. Thing is….looking at things now. Imagine buying 1.2 mil house (very average house in Van and most suburbs). Imagine how long to pay that off, while paying for 2 cars, activities and vacations for fam and 2 kids, renos, taxes, child care…heavy task. And even if it does go up from 1.2 to 2 mil in 15/20 years…what you gonna do. Sell? Where will the grandkids visit? Where will you live? What about renos? The new roof? It never ends.
People of Vancouver: you cannot afford the homes you are buying. You cannot afford to retire with the debt load you have. You cannot eat your home in retirement. Don’t you want to vacation? Live? Travel? Help your kids with their own mortgages? Is this 3000 Square foot bungalow really making you 2 million dollars worth of happy?? I doubt it.

#39 rental monkey on 10.10.11 at 1:51 am

Okay Question for a few blogs here. Have a friend who is technically is a UK citizen but is married to a Canadian and has a canadian born child. He works oversees and his income is in British pounds. Most of his money is with Lloyd’s, whom I believe was just recently downgraded. He seems to think think that because the Bank of England will guarantee his money up to 170,000 pounds he should just leave it where it is.

I tried to direct him to this site and even to your personal email Garth……but because of the blog name, he is being a stubborn Irishman and thinks I am ignorant to the affairs that are currently happening. I think he should get his money out to a safer haven, but he is convinced that all will be well.( The government GUARANTEES his deposit.) Or..and I quote ” Well maybe then I should just but a shotgun” ~insert massive sarcasm~ Which of course, I said “Uh, Yes”.

If Lloyd’s is currently being downgraded, is this not the beginning of the dominoes? And I know the bond market is the place for those with some extra dough that needs a safe haven (thanks Garth)but really….? Where could this really go? How is it possible that there could be another massive bailout for the banks….starting now?

#40 Smell The Coffee on 10.10.11 at 1:58 am

Next Big Special !

50% Off … your lifespan …

due to the stress of losing your equity.

#41 rental monkey on 10.10.11 at 2:06 am

Yes, upon proof reading, I see my grammatical errors and didn’t check before I hit send. So no, wet noodles tonight and……Happy Thanksgiving to all in these crazy times we are at. >3 ya Garth.

#42 Davey Boy on 10.10.11 at 2:11 am

Actually thinking of moving to Kelowna :)

#43 TheTruth on 10.10.11 at 2:46 am

HAM and HIM Money yet to come… 77,000 + Millionaires have already applied and are waiting to come to Vancouver and Toronto. That is why they restricted this years number of applications to 700.

Don’t believe me… read the article.

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/10/07/immigration-backlog-keeping-millionaires-out-of-canada

Might be good time still to buy in Richmond or Richmond Hill!

#44 Aussie Roy on 10.10.11 at 4:13 am

Aussie Update

SPRING auctions continue to disappoint property sellers around the country, with clearance rates remaining well below results compared with the same time last year.

While Sydney has been the strongest real estate market over the past 12 months, only 55 per cent of the city’s 403 properties that were up for auction at the weekend sold — slightly down from the previous week’s 57 per cent.

On the corresponding weekend last year, Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 60 per cent.

In Melbourne, 59 per cent of 557 properties sold under the hammer as the city’s real estate market ramped up again after its traditional hiatus over the AFL grand final weekend. But the clearance rate was still below 62 per cent at the same time last year, according to Australian Property Monitors.

Harley Dale, chief economist at the Housing Industry Association, attributed the weekend’s soft results to a lack of (greater fools) consumer confidence.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/auction-clearances-lag-as-would-be-buyers-hold-back/story-e6frg6nf-1226162501771

#45 Smokanagan on 10.10.11 at 6:01 am

Ah yes, thankful for many things including the grins when I read this blog or looks of bewilderment when I voice my opinion of how flat the Kelowna market is and will likely stay. I live (rent) in one of the many cash flow negative condos in this town. Thankful I can live a block from the beach (I prefer liquidity), while house horny contemporaries are stuck way up in the hills of WBank or postage stamps in the Upper Mission.

#46 wtf????? on 10.10.11 at 6:20 am

The global governments ‘coordinated action on interest rates’ has screwed investors around the world. The same phenom that has happened in the west is also happening in Asia…despite the talk of Asian tigers…..prices are also going down Thailand. The solution everywhere is to crush the aspirations of government spending pigs and stop the expansion of government …period.

The reaction to low rates was as extreme here as anywhere…..it manifest in heavy over building…there is a glut of everything. I saw prices on a new condo building yesterday slashed to $10,000 ( full price) for what in Vancraphole would cost $350K…. go figure. How stupid are Canadians for having lost sight of the value of a dollar.

I’ve heard the word ‘desperate’ used here a few times by people who overextended themselves into condo and commercial developments of all kinds. Why? Its supply and demand here…..they have run out of customers (each other) as no one has any faith in what will happen next. What is big here is speculation in physical gold….people own a lot of it…no one trusts the government or the banks to any degree. I suggest CDN’s get a grip on the idea that government should never be in control of peoples finances.

#47 Blobby on 10.10.11 at 6:25 am

Gotta love global

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQY2-25AZYA

#48 miketheengineer on 10.10.11 at 8:09 am

Garth et al:

Nostradamus le mad “dude”

This one is for you:

http://www.youtube.com/user/akcijak#g/c/522789419AE22A5B

Ed Dames is interviewed on Coast to Coast. Extra Doomy and Gloomy…just in time for Thanksgiving.

Most interesting thing that I got out of it all:

“Germany may soon be dropping the Euro, and switching back to its original currency”

The roomers have been flying about of this. When /if this happens. What happens to banking and market if this happens….up/down? Will there be a run to the US green back as a safe haven? Will there be a bank run in Europe? They predict this will happen soon.

One thing I have learned about predictions….no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy.

And Garth how can we make some money on this…do we go cash now and wait to buy, or buy now and wait to sell?

Germany will not drop the Euro. — Garth

#49 disciple on 10.10.11 at 8:22 am

#5 timo…. great link buddy.

“You were born free, you will live free, you will die free. The only chains that exist are in your mind”.

-classic disciple.

#50 Incubus on 10.10.11 at 8:37 am

What’s funny is that even at -50%, these condos are probably still too expensive.

#51 Mr. Vaughan on 10.10.11 at 8:42 am

Garth,

Do you have any idea whats going on in the suburbs of the GTA? Prices are escalating out of control and the year over year increases are tremendous. I know the West Coast is moments away from implosion but what and when do you think areas like Vaughan are going to correct?

JC

Why live in Vaughan? — Garth

#52 Herb on 10.10.11 at 8:52 am

Hope this Thanksgiving will see all blog dogs lieing as comfortably as that fellow mutt in the lead picture is bedded.

#53 timo on 10.10.11 at 9:24 am

#14 Onemorething,

oh yeah, and stay out of the EURO. Euro TARP underway!

true, Harrier jets filled with pounds are making banks feel all warm and fuzzy. It seems that markets love taxpayer bailouts and will propel numbers to new highs.

Watch for major gains in the markets until the numbers show that the public cannot afford the party.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703440604575495670714069694.html

“The inflation-adjusted income of the median household—smack in the middle of the populace—fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/39bd8586-3b94-11e0-a96d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1aJWS3VPA

“Today, UK inflation as measured by the consumer prices index is running at 4 per cent on a year ago, compared with an average pay rise in the last year of 2.3 per cent.”

Thank god health care costs won’t soar and gobble up discretionary spending, oh wait…

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/insurance/story/2011-10-07/open-enrollment-health-care-insurance/50712382/1

“projects an increase of 5.9% in 2012, down from 7.6% in 2011. Mercer, another human resources consulting firm, predicts that employee health care costs will rise 5.4% in 2012.”

Thank god for short term rallies , buy people buy

#54 timo on 10.10.11 at 9:36 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/us/recession-officially-over-us-incomes-kept-falling.html?_r=1

Between June 2009, when the recession officially ended, and June 2011, inflation-adjusted median household income fell 6.7 percent, to $49,909

you say housing prices in the US have bottomed and $100 oil and high commodity prices are here to stay?

I say ‘lol’! Incomes are going down not up. Get out of debt people because purchasing power is drying up.

#55 Barry on 10.10.11 at 9:43 am

T.O. Bubble Boy

Happy Thanksgiving!

Be thankful for being able to do math… like this example:

Generally, I agree with your comments but in this case a few respectful clarifications.

1. The CIBC prefs you reference are callable in 2014 and the yield to the call date is just over 3%, or half the 6% current yield you quoted. Just about certain that they will be called on the first call date given the high coupon.
2. Hard to compare a 6 month rental to a new listing. If the rental was available for a longer period of time I get your math – otherwise hard to make the comparison. Is it possible that the rental is available for a short term until the house is taken down by a builder for a new home?

#56 Cow Man on 10.10.11 at 9:59 am

Amigos:

Not at the top of the list; but right up there on Thanks Giving Weeken. Thanks for the Hon Garth Turner. One politician who never put a price on his integrity. A free man! XGB is still really volatile in comparison to a GIC. The GIC market is the one that you are trying to save. Happy Turkey Day.

#57 Amarillo on 10.10.11 at 10:21 am

Happy Thanksgiving everyone, we’ve got a lot to be grateful for.

#58 bigrider on 10.10.11 at 10:46 am

The mania for houses and condos in the GTA remains unabated.

Posting link after link either supporting this notion or discrediting it seems pointless.

Just start a conversation with neighbors, the people around you, family etc. ask them a simple question ” Do you think houses are a good investment” ? see what response you get.

nuff said.

That ‘common wisdom’ is precisely the threat. Try not to be so insecure. — Garth

#59 Anono on 10.10.11 at 10:46 am

Regarding the Calgary house that went for ‘just over half’, let’s be honest, the guy didn’t lose that amount, he was just chancing it hoping to make a big profit. The deceiving thing about it is that he still probably made a profit or lost very little. I know a lot of builders a couple of years ago that built a house a house for a mil and sold for 2 mil. Now if they want to sell, they may only make $500,000 and it takes a while to sell. Hardly a ‘50% off’ situation like in the States where the owner actually does lose 50% of what they paid. It is no where near that bad in Calgary like buddy is talking about regarding listing above. There are still houses selling and people are making profit if they bought 4 years ago.

Not in Calgary. — Garth

#60 Anono on 10.10.11 at 10:47 am

Sorry, I guess buddy did not make anything since it was a POS, but you get my drift…. If he did not lose it, he would have lost very little if you know what I mean.

#61 TurnerNation on 10.10.11 at 10:48 am

So what are the new prices on those 50% Off Kelowna condos? DA never mentioned it to us…

Are they a deal? Or more likely the building will crumble due to lack of builder support/warranty and lack of condo fees (if most units sit empty).

Kelowna = our Detroit?

#62 bigrider on 10.10.11 at 10:52 am

To add to my previous post

The fear for the financial markets remains unabated as well.

Just ask your neighbors, friends etc. if any of the DOW 30 stocks are a good place to invest your money for the next ten years and see what kind of response you get.
Ask them if they believe that if they buy a condo in the city of T.O for $600sq ft if they believe that A) their condo will be worth $1200sq ft in 10 years or B) Mcdonalds or Coca cola shares will be worth same double in ten years inclusive of dividends and see the kind of dumb expression or answer you get.

RE obsession alive and well until this all too elusive RE correction commences.

Dow up 280 points at this moment. — Garth

#63 dogman01 on 10.10.11 at 11:10 am

Tom from Mississauga on 10.10.11 at 12:21 am said:
Hi Garth
Today reading the Globe and Mail reminded of your Aug 7th post about not selling your solid, profitable, dividend paying companies in a panic. Like Daylight Energy.

I have been watching Daylight for the last two years, paid a good dividend, I was already overweight in the sector however ready to vultch this last week when it was down around $5.50.
Sinopec comes in at $10.00+ scoops up a strategic asset when the market is down.
Hmmm….I could be wrong but is not Sinopec an entity of “State Sponsored Capitalism”. I saw the same thing with Harvest Energy Trust being purchased at a low by the South Korean State Oil Company. Can North American business compete with entities that have government backing and 50 year strategic plans? I guess you can say the same thing about American banks…”State Sponsored Capitalism”.

#64 jess on 10.10.11 at 11:19 am

6 timo

…thanks for that humerous engagement of humanity!
It seems those 1 % ists want control without being controlled.

#65 Can't wait to short the markets. on 10.10.11 at 11:27 am

Major Advance Warnings

Martin D. Weiss Ph.D. | Monday, October 10, 2011 at 7:30 am

As soon as we see the likelihood of major bankruptcies and defaults, we don’t wait around. We warn you immediately.

We know you need time to get your money out of danger. And we also know that financial disasters don’t obey any particular clock.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/7-major-advance-warnings-47579

I have come to the conclusion Weiss is a wingnut. — Garth

#66 cxcroney on 10.10.11 at 11:28 am

#62 I think it is mls 10036015 at 533 yates road . You can go on to mls.ca and go to advanced search at top of page , enter kelowna between 200 and 300 hundred thosand and you will see it on the first page of 10 listings. Question. Does everybody live in condos in Kelowna?

#67 jess on 10.10.11 at 11:31 am

“USAID has grossly underperformed in electrical reconstruction,” says Charles Tiefer, an attorney and contracting expert who serves on the Commission on Wartime Contracting, a panel appointed by the U.S. Congress to analyze why so much money was misspent in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“What you’ve got is an agency that has become a contract- management agency, and they’re not even very good at that,” adds Dov S. Zakheim, another Wartime Contracting commissioner. “They threw money at contracting with less-than-great results.”

The Wartime Contracting commission released its final, 248-page report (PDF) at the end of August. It concluded that between $31 billion and $60 billion (PDF) of the approximately $206 billion spent on contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan was wasted, because of badly conceived projects, poor planning and oversight, and criminal behavior, such as fraud and corruption. (The $206 billion figure includes contracts for logistics and security, in addition to reconstruction.) The report also says that “money lost as a result of the inability to sustain projects could easily exceed the contract waste and fraud already incurred.”
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/reengineering-afghanistan/0

#68 dd on 10.10.11 at 11:46 am

Calgary is off at least 15% for homes in the $300 – 400k range from 2007. People still have this fantacy … you better buy now because i will not get any cheaper. True, it may not, however the price will go sideways for years.

#69 The thing in the basement on 10.10.11 at 11:47 am

Happy Thanksgiving to all the dawgs and esp. to Garth for hosting this pathetic blog.

#70 dd on 10.10.11 at 11:47 am

#60Anono

…if they bought 4 years ago.

Hey … 2007 was the high price for housing in Calgary.

#71 Aussie Roy on 10.10.11 at 12:06 pm

Aussie Update

When the Occupy Wall Street protests began three weeks ago, most news organisations were derisive if they deigned to mention the events at all. For example, nine days into the protests, National Public Radio had provided no coverage whatsoever.

It is, therefore, a testament to the passion of those involved that the protests not only continued but grew – eventually becoming too big to ignore. With unions and a growing number of Democrats now expressing at least qualified support for the protesters, Occupy Wall Street is starting to look like an important event that might even be seen as a turning point.

Many Australians will feel a degree of support for the protesters.

From a distance, our American cousins have quite obviously been put to the sword by Wall Street. And the failure of the Bush and Obama administrations to bring justice to the American people in the wake of the Wall Street debacle that culminated in the Global Financial Crisis must be quite a burden for the nation.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/time-to-occupy-our-financial-hubs-20111010-1lgq9.html#ixzz1aOaDDHnq

#72 Michelle on 10.10.11 at 12:30 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and my special thanks to Garth for this illustrious blog!
My mother and I are celebrating this afternoon with a special Thanksgiving meal of Chinese food (her maiden name was Lee).
Two things you can always count on. Real estate bubbles will eventually correct, and you can always find a Chinese restaurant open on a statutory holiday :)

#73 Junius on 10.10.11 at 12:33 pm

#20 Stevenson,

This is the oft repeated statement of the RE pumper. International investors must be smarter and know something that we don’t. But there is no evidence to support this.

On the contrary, many of the people moving from Mainland China are getting out one step ahead of officials looking to seize their money as ill gotten gains. These “Naked Officials” are no savvy at all. Just desperate. More like the Beverly Hill Billies with Chopsticks.

#74 TurnerNation on 10.10.11 at 12:34 pm

A bit of weekend contrarian reading:

“What Everyone Is Too Polite to Say About Steve Jobs”

http://gawker.com/5847344/what-everyone-is-too-polite-to-say-about-steve-jobs

#75 Junius on 10.10.11 at 12:43 pm

#44 theTruth,

What a pumper bunch of hype. Not the first paragraph –

“More than 22,500 foreign millionaires are waiting abroad to resettle in Canada, bringing with them more than $9 billion to help cash-strapped Ottawa, immigration officials say.”

First of all, most of these people apply to 5 or more countries. Canada isn’t necessarily their first, second, third or fourth choice.

Secondly, the article assumes that their income statements are 100% accurate. Whereas the experience is that they are massively hyped in order to create more interest.

Finally, the assumption that these people are going to hand over their money to “cash strapped Ottawa” is just embarrassingly ridiculous. The experience is quite the opposite.

We will not solve our debt issues and housing bubble by increasing immigration. We will simply add to the already growing feelings of resentment for those that cannot afford to live in their home cities. Recipe for disaster to see this as a solution.

#76 Daisy Mae on 10.10.11 at 12:56 pm

“I am a real estate appraiser and was recently working in the Kelowna market. Drove past a condo development and saw something that sums up the current market.”

*********************************

This developer was in serious financial trouble just last summer. Construction was halted…the building(s) were covered with tarps. This must be a last minute attempt to cover losses….

#77 McLovin on 10.10.11 at 1:10 pm

This ought to send DA back to his leased 5 series and out of this blog once and for all. The thin venner of his spin about all being well and “seasonly adjusted numbers” has been pulled back and the rot is there for all to see.

Kelowna is ground zero. Its been said many times by people on this blog. Kelowna will be our Las Vegas or Miami. I expect condo’s to drop 50%-60% for good places and 70%-80% for junk this this one.

Maybe the Realtards could get the rights from Will Smith and rename the song Welcome to Kiami.

#78 disciple on 10.10.11 at 1:19 pm

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

This holiday started when mothers in New England decided to protest pointless wars in which their sons were taken away and sacrificed to the machine. But you’re never taught that in school. Of course there’s also the ruthless slaughter of the Indians that this holiday papers over. But hey…cheers!

#79 rookie57 on 10.10.11 at 1:29 pm

#66 Can’t wait to short the markets.

I too have some serious doubts about Weiss. In my opinion, he is in the “investment” business and sells it to the hilt. A lot of his so called research comes across as marketing so you will buy his newsletter..etc. In other words, he is selling… are you buying?

#80 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.10.11 at 1:31 pm

@ #56 Barry

Good points, but getting caught in the weeds a bit and missing the bigger picture — the main point still holds, even if the details are tweaked.

Yes – those CIBC preferreds are callable in 2014 for $25/share… I only used that example because of the precise 6% yield. Maybe another example where the callable price is more inline with the current price is better? Like these Laurentian Bank D series preferreds that yield 5.9% and are only .30 (just over 1%) above the callable price?

As far as those 2 houses (Rental vs. Purchase), I picked them because they looked so similar, and were on the same street… but, since you asked, here’s another rent vs. buy example with the same math:

2+1 bdrm 1.5 storey for $2200/month:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11133714&PidKey=-1284523548

3-bdrm 1.5 storey for $839k:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11189952&PidKey=2103593673

#81 bigrider on 10.10.11 at 1:32 pm

Garth response to Bigrider in #59- “The ‘common wisdom’ is precisely correct. Try not to be so insecure”.

Garth I am not insecure just somewhat annoyed.

The ‘common wisdom’ people hold that RE is a better investment than the financial markets is salt in an open wound.

The wound will be theirs. Relax. — Garth

#82 kc on 10.10.11 at 1:33 pm

I need some information from anyone who might know about the oil industry/gas lines.

How many companies in Northern Canada are hiring on the fields?

Had a son leave looking for a promised job that is paying 10K a month. (myself I am more skeptical than anything) but said hope it works out for you.

First stop was in Regina (head office) then Northern Alberta. No idea what jobs are booming with hiring new workers, so if anyone can shed some light on this I would be thankful. Myself I was in the thought that the north is slowly unwinding from the glory days. Any one on this blog from the north?

Thanks

#83 bigrider on 10.10.11 at 1:38 pm

Garth to Bigrider at #63- “dow up 280 at the moment”

Yes and go back to monday last week near recent bottom where I posted quote ” buy some beat up oil and gas and some of the gold equities and other high alpha positions..sell preferreds and bonds”

Garth I am on side with you here 100%, saving and financial assets over bricks and mortar anyday.

Now if we could only get the housing humpers to follow suit what a better, more stable, less leveraged world we could all live in.

#84 Industrial Guy on 10.10.11 at 1:43 pm

Happy Thanksgiving

Walk away mortgages in the USA? Think again.
House Is Gone but Debt Lives On ….

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576572532029526792.html

#85 bigrider on 10.10.11 at 1:44 pm

Sorry meant to say “precisely the threat” when quoting Garth response in #59

#86 Leslieville Post on 10.10.11 at 1:46 pm

Results of a reader poll on Leslieville / Riverdale house prices:

http://www.leslievillepost.com/2011/10/09/results-of-reader-poll-on-leslieville-riverdale-house-prices/

Are people starting to get it?

#87 Kris D. on 10.10.11 at 2:08 pm

This blog’s fixation on Vancouver is tiring, to put it kindly. I wish we see more case studies of less extreme locales across Canada.
For instance, in the Oakville/Burlington area of Ontario, new developments are sold out (on Dundas, approaching the new Oakville General Hospital that’s being built), and listings are flying off MLS within a week.
Don’t get me wrong – I wish prices would correct. I just think it’s short-sighted to paint all of Canada with the same brush as (insane) Vancouver.

Actually, according to the Oakville-Milton Real Estate Board, the average home price in September took a $31,000 drop, or 5%, from August. Sales were also lower. Suggest you be more observant. — Garth

#88 Timing is Everything on 10.10.11 at 2:13 pm

Germany will not drop the Euro. — Garth

Good bet….but I also bet they have bunch of D-Marks ready to go…just in case.

#89 penpal on 10.10.11 at 2:17 pm

@ # 9 Observer

Do you ask your neighbour for stock tips too?

What is it that people like you who don’t understand that ALL bubbles (that is every single one) in the history of the world (that is the globe we live on) have BURST (as in NEVER and I repeat never, persisted indefinitely).

What in hell could ever make you doubt such a perfect track record, especially when compared to the MULTIPLE RE BUSTS that Vancouver has experienced in its history as a city.

Why is this so hard to believe when historical evidence is absolute?

And, btw…. you don’t get “soft landings” in RE manias, especially one this large.

#90 penpal on 10.10.11 at 2:24 pm

@ # 14 Onemorething

I agree with you, but why make yourself unpopular with people who probably won’t listen anyway.

Hey, if they made it by luck, let them lose it by luck.

Also, the fewer people that sell up here near, at or just past the RE market top, the less competition for us who plan to vultch later.

Just saying….

#91 penpal on 10.10.11 at 2:30 pm

@ # 20 Stevenson

Proof of this phenomenom?

Sources of this info?

Links to articles?

Or just your delusional imagination? Again.

#92 Marnic on 10.10.11 at 2:38 pm

The Dow and European markets are up on the “news” that Merkel and Sarkozy have cooked up yet another solution to the Eurozone crisis. Of course it’s such a sound scheme that we have to wait three weeks to find out what it is.

In other news, the French Finance Minister stands up and says all French banks are adequately capitalized on the very day the government is bailing one of them out. You couldn’t make this shit up.

#93 bill on 10.10.11 at 3:00 pm

happy thanksgiving
hope everyone had a great weekend…….

#94 penpal on 10.10.11 at 3:00 pm

@ # 60 and # 61 Anono

Yeah, sure buddy.

Show us the proof of your inane posting or STFU.

I was a developer, you are full of s&*t.
Unless you are doing the books of your “friends” and know the business, you are simply full of it.

Also, don’t forget many guys have landbanked for years and made most , if not all of the money on that component, not the build out.

You have NO IDEA of what you are talking about.

#95 penpal on 10.10.11 at 3:06 pm

@ # 63 Bigrider

Don’t mistake brains for a bull market.

Your friends are one trick ponies.

Watch them get skinned alive in the near future.

You have too little faith in mathematics. They have too much faith in themselves and RE.

Watch, wait and see.

Or join them already – go buy that POS in the sky at $ 600 / ft. or more.

We’ll see who is right.

#96 live within your means on 10.10.11 at 3:17 pm

Happy Thanksgiving to all and especially Garth, Dorothy and Bandit.

It’s been a beautiful weekend weather wise. Went up to 29 yesterday. While DH went out on the bike for the day I worked for several hours in the garden and today. Y’day fell on the bank into some damn wild blackberry bushes. Arms again scratched & black & blue. Only half of the bank belongs to us, but the original owners put up a fence in the back at the bottom of the bank as they had an above ground pool. Our previous dear & elderly Polish neighbours bought it a year before we bought our home, on the condition the pool be removed. They were both gardeners & even installed a hot house installed on one side of their garage. Many years ago DH was fed up mowing the bank. So I put in various low growing shrubs and types of ground cover and maintained the total front bank and one side of their home. The wife of our current neighbour said she likes to garden but has done zilch in terms of controlling weeds this year & her hubby is useless in that & other depts. Am at the point where I’d like to rip most of the stuff up and go back to grass even if DH has to use a whipper snipper to cut it. I know his pref would be to just let it go wild as he hates to mow grass.

As we have no children & none in our family are getting together, we’ll just have some steaks on the barbie with sauteed shrooms, taters, a salad & good bottle of wine.

Cheers.

#97 Steady Eddie on 10.10.11 at 3:23 pm

Abolish property taxes.
RELEARN skills of how to build your own home.

http://www.amazon.com/Surviving-Off-Off-Grid-Decolonizing-Industrial/dp/0615447902/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1318274230&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.com/How-Build-Furnish-Log-Cabin/dp/0020016700/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1318274324&sr=8-1

The price to pay for your cushy lifestyle is debt slavery – enjoy.

Happy Thanksgiving – make a wish.

#98 penpal on 10.10.11 at 3:32 pm

@ # 81 T.O. Bubble Boy

The basis of what you are saying is correct.

If it was not a massive bubble in Toronto, those rents would be double or higher.

You are correct – Toronto housing ( or anywhere for that matter where rents are so proportionately low compared to purchase prices) is an a bubble.

A big one.

It too shall burst.

#99 jess on 10.10.11 at 4:02 pm

Hagan-McCain Foreign Earnings Reinvestment Act

http://ataxingmatter.blogs.com/tax/2011/10/repatriation-tax-holiday-win-america-is-pushing-hard.html

#100 Devore on 10.10.11 at 4:52 pm

#59 bigrider

Nortel was a good investment too. Do you need sheep to validate your investment decisions?

#101 Dan in Victoria on 10.10.11 at 5:03 pm

KC @ 83
Got a couple of friends working in Fort Mac, whats your kid do.
Does he have his truck license (Air).
They are working, doing well.

#102 Tony on 10.10.11 at 5:10 pm

Re: #80 rookie57 on 10.10.11 at 1:29 pm

What do you think Europe will do? Plant money trees? The solution is they’ll all go bankrupt and Germany will give nothing to anyone or anybody. That’s what will happen.

#103 betamax on 10.10.11 at 5:24 pm

More on the house of cards in China:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/10/us-china-debt-idUSTRE79901L20111010

#104 kc on 10.10.11 at 6:30 pm

101 Dan in Victoria on 10.10.11 at 5:03 pm

“whats your kid do.
Does he have his truck license (Air).”

Hi Dan, nope. He has nothing, from what I could gather it is some level entry stuff. think back being barely 20 and cocky and thinking it is easy working 16 hours a day to make 10K a month with 20 day turns. This is what I have been led to believe.

#105 Dan in Victoria on 10.10.11 at 8:28 pm

KC @ 104
Well he’ll get tuned in pretty quick .
One of my nephews headed up to work on the rigs a few years ago, gave him some advice about camp and how things worked up north (pulled a few year shift myself)
Big kid bigger yap.
Got a major tune up. Apparently some of those little guys pack a pretty good wollop.
Lasted about 6 months, came home a bunch wiser.
And a bunch poorer (gotta have an F350 diesel you know)
Hope things work out for your kid.

#106 kc on 10.10.11 at 9:51 pm

105 Dan in Victoria on 10.10.11 at 8:28 pm

“Hope things work out for your kid.”

No matter what happens it will work out.
1- He learns to not count his chickens before they hatch.
2- talking about working is easier than working and not talking.
3- sometimes you have to learn when you have been sold a shitty bill of goods.

Thanks dan, I haven’t heard of the “boom times” coming back.

#107 Stevenson on 10.10.11 at 10:02 pm

#91 Penpal

I don’t think foreign investors investing into Canadian RE needs to be proven? But it has proven that they continue to buy properties here and the bubble? Well it’ll come around.

Some of the people here have a belief that things will happen the opposite direction of what most people believe in.

So foreign investors are stupid for unloading cash into Canadian RE? It’s cheaper and better opportunities everywhere else. Why here? What makes everyone else here smarter then them? Yeah I am sure it just rains cash in their countries and they just happened to pick up more off the floor then the others.

#108 Vancouver_Bear on 10.10.11 at 11:44 pm

http://www.tuscanyvillas.ca/

#109 Regan on 10.11.11 at 7:48 am

#81 T.O. Bubble Boy – I can attest to the difference in rental versus purchase price. I’ve been looking to move to a fairly small section of Riverdale, where even the tiniest house sells for $600K and most hover near $1MIL, and yet the rare rentals that do come up still land at $2000/$4000 month for very comparable homes.
My main concern is that when speculators can’t flip their homes, they are going to try to pull positive cash flow out of these homes. Rents will shoot up painfully for renters, who had no part of this housing insanity, and who can’t borrow money on easy credit just to pay rent.

#110 Taipan on 10.11.11 at 8:01 am

Im a foreign investor and i think your all mad.

Hardest thing i do is sit on my hands.

I want to buy a ski property in BC.

When i sit down and do the “math”, we call it “maths” you are around 35-45% over valued.

So i do the schaden fraude thing and rejoice in the stupidity of vendors sitting on properties for a 1000 days and barely reducing their asking price.

Want to sell?

Well take a leaf out of those who found a buyer 30% – 40% lower then your asking price. The market is a cruel thing and couldnt give a rats arse about how you emotionally feel about your property

BTW Garth. Your right on so many counts but you arent pessimisstic enough. As a trained economist and property valuer, most of you are going to get smashed.

GFC2 is inbound.

Will USA fail – hell no – but they will totally realign there currency and over the next 20 years work out of it. Europe is well and truly screwed. Possibility of numerous hanger ons being thrown out.

We are facing a 1 in 100 year event.

It all comes back to one massive issue. the bringing forward of consumer damand over the last decade, by using way too much finance.

Its as simple as that.Debt massive amounts of debt which cannot be serviced nor repaid. Millions will be bankrupted

BTW. Im a developer. Been in the game 25 years. Ive discharged $10m of debt, banked over $5m in cash. Im ready.

You think property wont crash your an idiot. And ill buy you for 30c in the $.

How the hell do you think developers become rich. They depend on the stupidity of the average person.

And im sorry any person on this blog who thinks that property is currently a good investment is an idiot.

BTW garth. Great blog – you will be seen to be right on so many things. Please keep these stories coming

#111 allister on 10.11.11 at 10:18 am

108 Vancouver_Bear

I opened your link, everthing is there except the price. Must be a secret.

Or maybe they are like a well known retailer in Ontario who advertises everything 40-50% off all the time, but still more then their competitors.

#112 TaxHaven on 10.11.11 at 2:15 pm

IN DREAMLAND.

Borrowing & spending more on real estate?
Buying more new cars?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/home-cents/retirement-bound-canadians-piling-on-debt/article2197318/

#113 Van guy waiting on 10.11.11 at 4:24 pm

TAIPAN:
Why do u care so much about our real estate. If you are a developer, why haven’t you invested into Vancouver years ago and cash out now? And good for u Aussie boy banking 5 mil. You’re like a virus and everywhere I go to research RE, there you are. Btw Jaguars suck!