On Tuesday mortgage rates will rise. The five-year closed at the Royal, for example, goes to 5.29%, plus some variables are being hiked. By the way, if you hand over your money to RBC for five years in a GIC, you’ll earn 1.55%. This is why you should never, ever worry about the banks.
Whatever the rate change does to horny house buyers is a moot point. Let’s talk bonds instead.
In announcing this, the bank blamed the bond market, where the yield on government securities rose following a better-than-expected jobs creation report Friday in the United States. In case you missed it, over 103,000 positions were created last month, which was way better than analysts (or bond traders) had expected. So while the unemployment rate didn’t change, bond prices did. And soon, mortgages went with them.
How come?
Higher job numbers ease fears the US economy is totally stalled and pre-recessionary. This signal of improving growth rekindles thoughts of expansion and inflation, so pressure mounts for higher bond yields (investors demand them to protect themselves), which are accomplished immediately by dropping bond prices.
When a bond with a fixed coupon (say, 3%, paid until the bond expires) gets cheaper to purchase, the effective yield-to-maturity goes up. It’s a tad complicated, but the bottom line is that the bond market’s incredibly sensitive to economic conditions and often is negatively correlated with stocks. So, when Bay Street guys are hurling off ledges, bond guys are ordering new Panameras.
Lately bond prices have raced higher and bond yields have sunk in unison. In fact, 10-year US government bonds (one of the safest havens worried investors flock to) sunk below 2% in recent weeks – the lowest yield on record. Needless to say, the cost of buying those bonds exploded, thanks to demand.
Some people don’t get this. Why, they ask, would anyone pay a premium for a bond that pays less than inflation? (If you have a GIC you should ask yourself the same question.) The answer’s simple: bonds are safe. You always get your money back. And the interest is irrelevant. But unlike GICs, bonds are marketable securities which trade endlessly, so few (if any) investors buy them to hold and clip coupons.
Bonds have therefore been a shelter from the recent volatility on stock markets. Better, bond investors have made money. In a balanced portfolio (of growth assets plus, say, 40% fixed income), this has mitigated equity losses and protected people from a stunning three-quarters of the dip on the TSX or world markets.
Here’s what I mean. This is the six-month chart of an exchange-traded fund called XGB which is made up of ultra-safe government securities. As you can see, there’s no loss here, and actually a steady march higher as bond prices jumped. This (and not collecting interest) is why you own bonds.
As you can also see, there’s just been a drop in bond prices, as yield rose – the consequence of those job numbers on both sides of the border. A 10-year US government bond now yields about 2.05% and a Canada bond is at 2.07%. If stock markets recover over the next few months and economic prospects brighten, then this ETF will decline in value as rates swell.
So if you happen to be a nihilist, end-of-days doomer Armageddonist, you should buy this asset. If you think the world’s improving, then harvest gains from this ETF and spread them among funds holding growth assets like the S&P 500 or the TSX 60.
If you have a GIC, I’m arranging a prayer meeting for Wednesday at the lodge.
166 comments ↓
Isn’t it convieniant that positive jobs numbers come out when the government is besieged with news of its own incompetance. Lets see what happens when the private revisions come out in a couple of weeks eh? The pain ain’t done.
I see you are still long tin foil. — Garth
Garth,
You are on a mission clearly. A voice of reason and wisdom. I see so many posters on your comment section who if they were passengers on a plane would prefer to sit on the wing for fear the air in the cabin is dirty because it is recycled (it is not BTW).
You make sense across the board, but good contrarian common sense, well just ain’t so common.
Folks, if you had a balanced, non correlated portfolio you would not make some of the spectacular paper gains on the way up, but then again you’d also avoid most of the real losses on the way down.
I prefer to make a regular 5-10% net yoy gain doubling my money every 6-10 years with little risk through compound interest, than make 20% in a year on paper, borrow against it to buy a new bummer (dePreciating asset) because I feel the right to have it and justify it because I will make another 20% next year.
Compound the depreciation and interest on that Bimmer and factor in the risk downside of all the debt and compare it to buying that Bimmer in cash after your investments have gr
…This is the six-month chart of an exchange-traded fund called XGB which is made up of ultra-safe government securities. As you can see, there’s no loss here….
Actually there is a loss. It is called loss of purchasing power and it is very very real. This will be THE issue with government bonds in the not to distant future.
Did you even read the post? This is an ETF, which trades on an exchange, is 100% liquid and has its own asset value. Unbelievable… — Garth
Great post again, Garth. You might want to start charging for admission. ;)
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/cad/2011/10/07/Loonie_Correction_Finished_Headed_Lower_Against_Buck.html
Watch the Canadian dollar gain a little but the Greenback is still king safety.
for now…
own to a size enough to allow you to do so.
The rich buy consumables with money generated by investment returns. Eg. Only drink tue milk the cow produces. The pretend rich, buy the same consumables with money generated by income (very few) or by debt (the vast majority). Eg. Only drink tue milk they buy in the supermarket or borrow money to buy (like those I see buying groceries with credit cards).
So if you bought a house in cash or a long time ago, you can afford some paper losses and survive a downturn (still a waste). If you only recently bought a home, used a heloc to pay off debt you incurred in getting things you couldn’t afford, then did so a couple of times and your debt servicing “payments” are taking up most of your monthly income, you’re in for it.
The answer is not gold (it could have been if you bought a long time ago and steadily sold as it increased in value), it is not in housing, it is not by being a speculator (all those who invest for capital gain only), but it is in being a steady minded investor (investing for cash-flow while you track for capital gains).
The real contrarian is not the gold nutter or house whack, the real contrarian is the one that looks at all the single thought whack jobs and finds an INVESTMENT strategy that is broad enough to be elastic ensuring it can absorb the down dips against the upswings all the while on a moderate overall trend.
Garth, I have read every post for the last 18 months and you have educated me and those who can read and think for themselves, I now am fully liquid with a diversified negatively correlated portfolio and have invested in two businesses, one with short term cash-flow horizon and one with a medium term one. Both are cash-flow positive. My rent is a business expense and I have no structural liabilities.
18 months ago I had a financial hand-cuff, now I have a financial mattress (better than tempur).
Thanks mate!
Hey Garth…..RE your last para ,I have a 300K Wait and See GIC I picked up early this year ( walking around money) and it pays 1.25% until I decide to cash it in……. Pays .85% were I to have bought it today . Why would I cash it in??
P.S. which lodge is the prayer meeting at? Thanks buddy..
Inflation is 3.2% and you have to pay tax on 100% of the 1.25%. Let’s pray right now. — Garth
I stupidly stuck 15k in a 3yr GIC under a TFSA before I knew anything…
Gah! School boy error – I should have come here first.
I will only recover approx. 80% of the value if I pull out my cash early – I wonder if I’ll actually make 20% on something else in 2.5 years… hmmmm
Anyhow, thanks for advice old man :)
How can you despair about losing 20% of 2% annually on 15K. That’s $183. Totally worth it. — Garth
That wonderful job’s report that came in so strong was union strickers returning after a long absence.
This mess is far from over so cash is still king!
The plural of ‘job’ is ‘jobs.’ Use some of your cash to buy a book. — Garth
Brains,
Sorry to be off topic Garth but that rocket scientist pissed me off. And just practising drinking before my trip…:)
I forget the name of the loser that thinks the universe is expanding. Yes the smart one, the schooled one. The one that follows……..
You know who you are, had you had a better argument rather than name calling I would remember you..
Just for you, this week some time, after my massive hangover in New Orleans, I am going to educate you on Universal Shrinkage, with little equations that you can pull out your slide rulers, or scientific calculator found in your plastic pocket pen protector with bottle bottom glasses and prove me wrong……….
You won’t be able too. I’m a genus, I have been through the universal consciousness consolidator on a near death experience or LSD not sure……….But I know everything……………A stripper angle showed me when I took the tour.
When you analyze what I will put forward you will go holy shit, but you will be too afraid to agree after all, all rocket scientist you where bought up and schooled by the Man’s obedience system, You memorized and regurgitated and obeyed all for that elusive pat on the head by the school master.
I’m going to so educate like you like you have never scene, at first you will not want to look, but then you will, you will crutch the numbers and say, this is note possible you will think about it but are conditioned to only follow the status quo. But you will feel compelled to steel the concept and theory to show the world how smart you are, after all you invested into the mans trap. But sadly you won’t have the guts.
Like I have educated PHD mathematicians on trade floors, you know the Ivey league dudes that where all building the same risk models that failed miserably in 2008…
I average 200% returns for the last 10 years on my bets, but lucky for me I’m stupid and never made it threw the system..
Bond ? 007 … Bond, James Bond ….. shaken not stirred. Agreed SM ?
RE: How can you despair about losing 20% of 2% annually on 15K. That’s $183. Totally worth it. — Garth
Rather, they will only give me 12k of my initial investment back (TD BANK) for cashing out early.
I was, in a word: Uneducated.
I aim not to do the same with next years allowance. :)
Thanks again, have a wonderful thanksgiving.
Send me the details of this theft. — Garth
turner when are you coming in town for a seminar or something men. you said you would be hanging around this time of the year. it would be a priviledge to attend your seminars. and trust me alot of people would to
let me know
When the dance routines are finished. — Garth
Garth,
Hi, got this from zerohedge in regards to all that strength in the US employment number(103,000):
The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August.
Cheers,
Jeff
Old news. We knew that some time ago. More fluff from zerozero. — Garth
Hi Garth,
I’ve been following your blog for a while and agree with your perspective. In any case, we’ve been focusing on Canadian real estate in the media and on this blog. So somehow, it got into my mind that only Canada/ Vancouver are in this housing bubble. So I was curious about the rest of the world.
Of course, everyone knows US and Irish property went bust. Japan lost interest in RE in the early 90s. Boring Germans never had an RE price increases. Spain took some sort of a hit (not as big as Ireland or US). Then I looked at UK, France, New Zealand, Australia, Sweden and a couple other developed countries. It blew my mind that their price index graphs more or less mirrored Vancouver’s (about 10% dip in 2008 and almost full recover by 2011).
So my question is — to Garth and other readers — do you foresee a RE stall for all other countries such as UK, Sweden, France, Australia, etc.? Would ramification would a global housing stall have? I understand interest rates probably won’t go up for 5 or so years, so the stall may just be a stall and big dips won’t happen for a LONG time?
JUST Keepin’ the powder dry Garth …..Waiting to pounce….might buy some of those bank stocks you like so much when they drop another 10-15%…or more likely before the dust settles..
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Most+Regina+houses+selling+more/5507614/story.html
comments Garth? Is Saskatchewan going to continue rising to catch the national average? Or are they delusional?
My mother has ALL her savings in GICs. Has for years. Been trying to tell her about inflation. She doesn’t get it. Her lifeline/my inheritance continually gets swept away into the bank’s coffer vortex.
At least I know better. But it still sucks.
Dolton Mc Numb Nuts keeps sending me emails, I sent one back.
Stop sending me
DELETED
Not as interesting a post as the last few days, but I guess you can’t hit it out of the park every day. Nothing to argue with either though, unfortunately.
I appreciate that you are trying to educate us about bonds, and I agree it’s important. But man, is it ever boring compared to real estate!
Now you know why I have the disaplin to post just here…Gartho censors me. Which is a good thing, if I just posted on my blog, I would get so sued….mobed and killed
I think Garth loves me sort off…….
Thaks for killing the last one, what was i thinking….
Great advice Mr Turner. I appreciate it very much.
Another hilarious picture. This and the one from September 30th (along with the 1st sentence in blog of the same date) still has me laughing.
GO JETS GO!
Outcome = Event + Response
#71 Bob Copeland (yesterday)
No worries Bob, gold is still on the way up and if you sold about 30% of your position you would be “cash free”, even at today’s prices. Might not be a bad idea.
It would have been nice to catch the high at $1900, then you could have sold even less. But anyway what does the correction take us back to? July? So far the Dow hasn’t beaten the year 2000, although there is a small dividend.
On the technical side gold is still in an uptrend, but August was off the charts and a correction should have been expected.
The answer’s simple: bonds are safe. You always get your money back. – Garth
Unless of course they are Greek bonds soon to be followed by Italian and Spanish bonds that require bondholders to take a 50% haircut at the very minimum and eventually a 100% loss. Can never happen in Canada though, so we are all safe!
Obviously it can’t. — Garth
–
“The haven. Let’s talk bonds instead. So, when Bay Street guys are hurling off ledges, bond guys are ordering new Panameras. The answer’s simple: bonds are safe. Needless to say, the cost of buying those bonds exploded, thanks to demand.How come? Some people don’t get this.”
Neither do I. That stuff is for professionals, and I’m not.
“If you have a GIC, I’m arranging a prayer meeting for Wednesday at the lodge.” — Halle-bloody-looo-yaahhhh! Mercy! Is that a Dinosaur-mating lodge?
*
“When the dance routines are finished. Let’s pray right now. — Garth”. — Didja mean Dance With The Devil?!
*
Receive a govt. grant, lay workers off; Downgraded UK banks; US Banks “It isn’t the bank deposits exposure that’s the problem. It’s the credit default swaps!” wrh.com; Bernanke and Glass-Steagall; FF The USPS isn’t awash in red ink. Their employer (feds.) just want to get rid of the workers; Realizations of Wall St.
Obomba and Solyndra Opposites attract; Hijack Who wants the Occupy movement gone? China Subprime crisis (just like the US), and China Economoc meltdown. Seems everything is in unison with the west, except Putin is working on bringing the Eurasian Union, the Eurozone’s equal and opposite; Hedge Fund Sept. profits? Seems so; Unemployment Rate Different take, and Spain’s Debt Again, debts are transferred on to new govts.; Food pantries picked over, incomes drying up. The middle class is flatlining.
GMOs Messing animals up; Fake video “Now I wonder who would do a thing like that!” wrh.com; NWO Could be, but they have a little gas left in the tank; DHS (possibly CSIS as well). Looking at ways to quietly introduce a police state; Fukushima Endless troubles.
A Right Crock US and UK are losing badly in Af’stan. They want to go into Yemen next? Plus Taliban Better than NATO – US. Most of the heroin trade had been wiped out, now it’s flourishing; Black Hole TPTB are in it; Cosmological Constant Not sure whether banxters can be blamed for this, but it’s worth a try.
The nice lady at the bank has the authority to offer you a higher rate on a GIC than what is advertised on the website. Anyone with at least 10k should be able to negotiate at least 3.5% on a 5 year GIC. That’s better than inflation.
Untrue. — Garth
Reduce your exposure to Apple! And no, not because Steve Jobs died (rest in piece Steve, for all your faults you have made the world a better place, and built products your customers thought were really cool. We’ve got thousands of politicians and can’t say that about a single one of them. Anything they do, we wish they hadn’t.)
My leading Apple indicator (my wife), after disappointment about the 4S instead of 5 announcement, just switched from an iPhone 3GS to a Samsung Galaxy, which is a high powered Google phone.
I am not saying Apple is going in the toilet any time soon. They have brand loyalty from their customers almost no other company, maybe Coke or Harley Davidson, but not many companies can match, especially in the 15 to 30 year old age range. But my wife is 40, and at least in her humble opinion, Google has stolen a narrow lead over Apple, the same way Apple stole the lead from RIM.
Granted, the Android-Galaxy is not the big leap the iPhone was over what RIM (Blackberry) was selling back then. But the 4S is an admission of sorts that although Apple can use the new technology (dual core processors, etc.), they haven’t got a new, better operating system or a revolutionary concept ready to go in the phone department yet. Maybe they are sending too much time on their TV project.
PS, sell RIM too. I have a new Torch 9810, and you know what? It’s a nice phone, although a bit heavy. If my frickin’ IT department wasn’t stuck in the 1990’s (no tethering, no downloading apps), it’s not bad. But it’s catch-up.
Side note to IT departments everywhere: Banning tethering made sense on the old cell phones, where it was eating up airtime minutes. On a Smartphone with an unlimited data plan, it does not. It takes the same amount of data to download something and view it on my net book as it would on my Smartphone. But now the screen is tiny. So when I travel for business, now I have to pay (actually the company pays) an extra $12 a night for internet wifi that my phone could provide for free tethered. What a bunch of dumb bunnies. They must be taking their cue from government. Needless rules, helping no one.
Banning apps is equally stupid. You want these people to be connected 24/7? Let them download Angry Birds if they want to pay for it themselves. Idiots.
……..OR maybe a bunch more gold when it it hits 1610 next week..
yeah… ok…103K new jobs … you forgot to mention that that 45K of those ‘new jobs’ were striking telecom workers who returned to work.
US needs 260K jobs every month for the next 4 years to return to 2007-8 levels.
Average duration of unemployment reached a new high at 40.5 weeks.
“Higher job numbers ease fears the US economy is totally stalled and pre-recessionary.”
I’m not sure how you can even make that statement with a straight face.
XGB? How much longer do you trust Canada Housing Trust AAA Securities?
smoking man sounding like gene ray tonight
I see you are still long tin foil. — Garth
Now, are you sure they still use tin foil these daze? I think they use aluminum. wtf?????
Go long aluminum. They gotta be mining it by the kiloton.
http://tinyurl.com/no2yg
http://tinyurl.com/3zfbukm
http://tinyurl.com/3g2m2aw
Too many sno-cones tonight
Ha ha ha!
Best quote of the day:
“The 99% are no longer afraid of the 1%.”
Wish it were true, but it’s probably not. However, they are probably loosing their fear and getting very angry. More news at 11.
Hey BPOE….Haaaaa!
http://tinyurl.com/3eucolf
There is no investment that can beat the “real’ cost of inflation and no its not 3.2% like the govt cronies tell you. If you factor in rising costs in secondary goods and services outside gas and groceries, the real rate is near 7%.
Weighted average duration of XGB is ~6.78 years. If using this, be aware you’re reaching for yield. You are not adequately compensated for the downside risk should interest rates rise. XSB (WAD 2.66 years) is a better place to be and you give up very little yield (2.14% for XGB vs 1.55% for XSB). Bonds are supposed to be the safety net; take on risk with equities.
#20 Timing is Everything
From the TC story…http://tinyurl.com/3eucolf
‘David Greer, communications director with the Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government.
“The change in leadership signalled a change in how government brands its products and materials,” added Greer, saying the slogan was dropped a few months ago.’ – Times Colonist
—>Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government. What the hell is that? What’s with the branding/products/materials [email protected]? Looks like a corporation to me. Big business speak.
If you think the Eurozone is a problem just wait to see what is coming to America. The financial problems of America have yet to be realized. Will make the Eurozone look like a picnic. Cash folks Cash with a dollop of BPOE
I’ve been holding on to the xgb from about 20.20 up to 21.20 when I harvested the gains and am waiting for the price to drop so I can go back in. It will drop again if the economy improves or goes off a cliff.
What Garth doesn’t mention is that in 2008 investors dumped this along with other assets. So it has a way to fall. Why don’t you show the 5 year chart on this one?
Hey Garth,
Doesn’t the US need a min. 125,000 jobs just to keep up with their population growth?
Hey Marco…cabin air on airliners IS recirculated. Put on that SARS mask!
Excluding the Verizon strike, job growth slowed for a second straight month, to about 58,000, far below the 125,000 to 150,000 needed to keep the unemployment rate from trending higher.
The average duration of unemployment rose to a new high of 40.5 weeks.
investors.com http://tiny.cc/lzcve
jobs/schmobs
Actually you don’t get your money back with a bond that pays less than inflation. Instead, you are being guaranteed a loss, since by the time you get your money back their value is considerably diminished due to inflation. (Not to mention that you lose half of the income they pay you due to taxes).
A bond would have to pay an income at least twice the inflation rate for anyone to touch it.
And bonds that pay less than inflation, like GICs, are good for dimwits with half a brain.
That must include you, why can’t read. — Garth
Someone in Vancouver is looking for some helpful tips on how to rent out a basement suite. Any suggestions?
Readers, got any tips for this first time landlord-ess wannabe?
http://youngandthrifty.ca/weekend-ramblings/weekend-ramblings-and-pf-blog-love-lowered-expectations-edition/#comments
From your previous post ” Fear, not greed or lust, is the greatest motivator. — Garth”
I think not. Greed beats fear hands down in most cases. What most people fear is loss of what they have, and that fear almost always prevents any action whatsoever until it becomes clear that SOME action must be taken to avoid TOTAL loss. At that point that action which comes out of fear can almost always be described as panic.
Except in cases where an individual is motived into action by panic, fear is generally a demotivator.
And thus most folks continue living lives of quiet desperation of unfullfilled dreams.
Chew on that as you go ride your Harley along with the rest of the old coot, former paper-pusher, nonconformist herd….LOL
You being unfulfilled has nothing to do with me. But now I know why. — Garth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mAUQYn6DjM
warning strong language but right to the point……. ;)
Vancouverites faced with another 2% gas tax at the pumps, the straw keeps piling a little higher on the camel’s back. I wonder how much more the camel can take?
Well Crap.
The “interest rates rising” thing sucks. We are up for renewal in July, but can renew in March without penalty. If we were to break out early our penalty would be about $4500, but the rate cut (we have been at 5.5% for the last nearly 5 years :( ) would be significant 2.4 variable or 3.3 closed. Was thinking we’d just ride out the term until it’s over in March but now if rates are going up, I’m wondering if we should pay the penalty to break and renew early?
What do you think?
How many of those USA jobs were full-time career positions I wonder and how many part-time Walmart greeter type jobs?
The first problem is unemployment and the second is under-employment where folk just grab what is going and cut their expenses to the bone.
One cannot build a recovery on either.
The revisions will come back negative….they always do. Who hasn’t figured out that the government ‘economist/apologists aren’t blowing smoke up our a**es for political expediancy?
I’m so far long tinfoil I’m writing naked contracts with my own money and putting it where my mouth is. The differance between us is that I have a need to be right…..right now !
Given the current situation in Canada generally I decided to hedge my overhead by moving to Bangkok recently where costs are a fraction of what they are in Canada.
Ex: 1) Lunch today was extreme high quality costing me one tenth of what I could find in Canad for the same thing…..savings to me by a factor of ten.
2) I rent 1800 sq ft for $700 p/m which would cost $10,000 ++ in Vancouver ( there are precious few condo’s of this size available in Vancrapper) That is a big savings to me.
3) All costs for ADSL, Cable, heat, light etc etc etc are far cheaper plus the building does all my maintenance for me as part of my residency as well includes a doorman and security. This is all capital in my pocket.
4) I get in a taxi for $1
5) Flights are untaxed and I can fly from Bangkok to Singapore or Hong Kong for under $100.
Adam Smith pointed out in Wealth of Nations that money goes farther in regions where costs have not been affected by egregious taxation…..I can say this is true. Canada is a great place for refugee’s from the toilets of the world…compared to Afghanistan or Somalia it seems like paradise because everything is free…but for us regular people it has become a meat counter where we taxpayers are being flayed by the unions and parasites in the civic service.
Staying in Canada and investing in bond funds to ‘save’ my money or DRIP….ing and dribbling into the BETA of high performance equities hmmmmmmmmm who’s eating what?
Its a big world out here guys….get out more…you might find that you’re able to invest instead of hiding under your sheets and enjoying what you have because some parasites in the government thinks you don’t deserve to keep what you have.
G-Man…..send me another roll….I need a sunhat.
Thank you for this post and ones like them Garth. Please keep doing the good work.
Some of us listen.
No worries. In 2008, everything was contained… to the planet. Now all developments will be orderly… like falling dominoes. LOL!
Fear seems to motivate you lately. Too bad. It’s quite blinding. — Garth
oops… it’s official
————
B.C. no longer ‘Best Place on Earth’ as slogan gets replaced
http://www.timescolonist.com/touch/longer+Best+Place+Earth+slogan+gets+replaced/5520769/story.html?rel=835181
Europe is slowing down. How can this not impact the world economy and corporate profits over the next 12-24 months?
Because Asia is not in Europe. — Garth
For GIC aficionados.
GIC Rates:
http://money.canoe.ca/rates/gics.html
Inflation affects the return on all invests. Lots of items I look at actually cost less each year. Cars, Computers, TV’s, tools, ladders, etc. Houses will get cheaper too.
3% GIC return on $500,000 = $15,000.00
3% Inflation on $6,000 annual groceries = $180.00
What is the problem really? The GIC/Inflation argument is misleading.
Buy stuff only on sale. You can just about eliminate the effect of inflation.
A commenter on this blog summed it up nicely:
Are you concerned about “Return ON Investment” or “Return OF Investment” ?
Ladder your GIC’s so that money becomes available at least once per year. Always request annual interest payments for some income. I have two that pay interest every month. Just ask for that option. It is there but not advertised sometimes.
OK Garth – let me have it :-)
Strategy works passable well if you have at least seven figures to shelter and you are in your 50s. Otherwise, you lose. — Garth
I wonder how many insurance funds and pension funds are holding those 1981- 85 30 year government bonds that are coming due? They were paying double digit interest.
AMigos:
XGB 5 year chart. Lots of volutility if you look
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=XGB-T
You call a range between $19 and $21.50 ‘lots of volatility’? You and those heifers must live a boring life. — Garth
#36 The Duke
How do you trade XGB? It traded 36000 shares yesterday. Does it trade by appointment?
ETF = exchange-traded funds. Like stocks. — Garth
Anybody out there thinking that European ETFs are getting interesting?
Looking at a etf on the nyse ticker EZU – $28 and 6% dividend, it’s fallen almost 50%. I know it holds 20% in financials but it also holds Unilever, BASF, Bayer, Seimens, Total etc.
Opportunity coming or not?
At #31: Timing is Everything, that’s because BC, primarily Vancouver as a city, is no longer the best place on Earth for over two years now. And yes, most of all the BC branding has been a total rip off of Disney marketing – this is no big secret. According to many quality of life indexes, Vancouver is dropping quickly. You should check out on the most recent reports from The Economist, Monocale, Mercers, Forbes, Travel & Leisure, and so on. The powers that be can say they dropping the slogan to “simplify” marketing, but the truth of it is they honestly can no longer legitimately make this claim.
“…bonds are safe. You always get your money back.” – Hon. GT
ChortleChortle. That’s what DEXIA thought, too. Just sayin’.
Isn’t September the month when the modellers adjust for all the crap they have fed people during the past 11 months and have to adjust because it was wrong. The same must be for Canada when we had 106,000 self employed jobs in Sept 2008 just before or during the election. So basically September is a crap month which means nothing.
re: WTF???
I concur. Our rent to live in the city center of one of the major cities in Korea is $600/month for a 3-bedroom apartment. Safer than anything in Canada (no grafitti, no hoodlums, no beggars, no drugs), a subway system I can access by taking the bus two stops (cashless, all done with pay cards), a great meal out with my wife and child cost me less than $20 last week including beer but no tipping, ever :). Oh, we walked to the restaurant, I can walk to City Hall in 15 minutes, to a world-class park in 10, to the river and bike path in 5min that goes the length of the city, and buses cost $1, taxis $2 and across town $7, and I take a train to my university job 30 minutes away for $2. Oh, and 6 months paid vacation and I don’t even have a masters degree. Drawbacks? Shitty drivers, smoggy air. I guess that’s the price to be paid for going from a third-world hovel to a world-leader in semi-conductors, cars, ship-building, phones, and smart-as-hell kids. Would like to return to Canada someday, but hard not to see the appeal of staying and riding one of the Asian Tigers.
Anyone who’s paying 5.29% for a 5 year fixed mortgage should try a credit union. Alterna Savings is offering 3.6% on a 5 year closed, and variables are 2.49%.
Alterna Savings. That sounds secure. — Garth
50 Sean on 10.08.11 at 8:10 am
“B.C. no longer ‘Best Place on Earth’ as slogan gets replaced”
When can I get a new BC license that does not have that stupid slogan?? uhhg I hope the next one doesn’t say BC Christy on it … toss my coffee and bran flakes….
I’m still at the prayer meeting I guess, 1 year GIC at 1.8% (1.7%) + Credit Union profit sharing. Bonds and the market may be better and smarter with less income tax but we have busy lives and having our “wait and see cash” here where we don’t have to think about it works well. Our stocks are TRP and Telus….We don’t have much time to follow those either. I know I should be more involved but after a number of financial advisors that knew very little about their occupations this is my comfort zone……..Right or wrong.
#47 wtf???? – “2) I rent 1800 sq ft for $700 p/m which would cost $10,000 ++ in Vancouver ( there are precious few condo’s of this size available in Vancrapper) That is a big savings to me.zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz'”
Heck of a deal compared to this one for $700 in New York. You have 20 times more space than she has and she seems as happy as a pig in manure with it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZSdrtEqcHU
Re Garth & GICs. The real issues are not GICs but rather investments that are 1)tax inefficient 2)illiquid and 3) low yield.
1) is common to all interest bearing investments and can
be addressed by holding in RRSP/TFSA.
2) What’s in a name? I have GICs which are a)fixed b)redeemable on anniversay dates c)convertible and d)redeemable anytime. The latter 3 all add some degree of liquidity.
3) Is 6-8% low yield? Those are my ringers. Average is
4-5% and no commission, trading costs or mangement fees.
I do have concern about rates in 2013. Had been expecting some amount of increase by then but ???
Fear seems to motivate you lately. Too bad. It’s quite blinding. — Garth
—–
That’s when trade opportunities arise.
Because Asia is not in Europe. — Garth
——
Asia, Europe… whatever… it’s all connected.
The higher job numbers in Canada are a total scam. Self employed instant entrepreneurs … teachers returning to work and contract election workers …. make up all the new jobs. … The private sector shed another 20,000 jobs. Happy days are not here again by a long shot.
Tell the workers in St. Thomas the unemployment picture is improving ……..
#60 blase
From what you describe….No thanks. Korea is not even on my bucket list. I’ll stick with my acreage (aka bunker/home base). Oh, and I can actually drive my 1964.5 Mustang collector. Insurance $150 per year. No smog here. It just works…for us. We like it here.
http://tinyurl.com/3dtyeqy
Korea may work for you…just not for me. Although, Peru sounds intriguing to me now. BIL is retiring there (and he is a smart dude). Peru is now on our bucket list.
————————————————–
#57 The American
#47 wtf?????
As long as you are content (happy more or less) where you live, life will be (mostly) free of struggle. The ‘best place on earth’ does not exist…..except on this pathetic blog. ;)
Open Question to all:
Does anyone know what happened to the 1.5 Quadrillion dollars of toxic derivatives that was taken off the balance sheets of the banks when they were re-capitalized in 2009?
Features an Ohio -elementary teacher for 13 years got laid off and rehired back at half the wage 27k.
Working five days /week but they call you supply. And do not be sick within the benefits kickin period or you start all over. With all those coughing kids I suggest those teachers better start wearing 95masks.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/
The Uncounted Millions
#59 house
I must remind everyone again about ‘self-employment’ in the job creation numbers. Once a person has exhausted 12 months of E.I. they can apply for an additional 12 months if they agree to train as a ‘self-employed’ business person. Most of the increase in self-employment numbers can be attributed to this. These people then move from the ‘unemployed’ ranks to the ‘self-employed’. Looks good on paper, but really they are actually long-term unemployed……
blase #60
Canada ….sucks. Most Canadians are brainwashed by propaganda to think Canada is the best place on Earth. You have idiots in Vancouver who think just that. Canada is the land of enslavement where people work like slaves just to survive. When the housing bubble pops hundreds of thousands will leave this stupid country in economic ruin. We have stupid kids here who play with itoys. The world is leaving Canada/USA in the dust. Many immigrants come for the free services. I hope the protests will wake up the puppet masses to this enslavement. Big biz pays no taxes and still asks for billions in bailouts. Then they tell us we need to cut our lifestyle and services. Canada can not compete with the world with high housing prices/costs. What a stupid country run by CONs/criminals.
According to a new unsealed whistleblower suit in federal court in Atlanta:
Two mortgage brokers were instructed by the LENDERS not show attorney’s fee on their estimates but told them to hide them in title examination fee.Lenders certified to the VA in writing that they were NOT charging unallowable fees.
Under the False Claims Act defendant lenders are liable to the US for all damages resulting from those fraudulently induced guarantees of IRRRL loans as well as penalties of up to 11k/violation of the False Claims Act.
================
irrrl loans program
veterans low interest rates while also protecting those veterans from the predations of unscrupulous lenders, congress authorized the VA established the Interest Rate Reduction Refinancing Loans
#45 Cara
If I were you, I’d talk to a mortgage broker via referral from a trusted family member, friend or colleague.
So, 45,000 of the 103,000 jobs added in September were Verizon workers returning from their strike, and Verizon has HUGE offices in Texas — how long before we hear another gimmicky Rick Perry media blitz that tries to use this artificial job creation number to enhance his ridiculous image as a “job creator”?
Actually, 45,000 people going back to work is not what I’d consider bad news. Maybe in your world. — Garth
Downgraded European Banks and Countries and still people haven’t clued in. Today’s piece on bonds may not be sexy – but they have a place in your, by now, we hope, balanced portfolio.
It sure gets confusing. Half the pundits say Dow 13,000 and the other half are buying guns, Spam and ammo.
I am scoping RE on this long weekend. I can see an RE agent across the way. All the signs up. Nice $550,000 675 sq ft piece of rain screened he’ll on wheels.
He could be standing naked on the lawn, and nobody cares.
The worm is turning.
What an interesting time we live in. Holy canoli!
Just wait til Vancouverites get their tax notices, and we get rid of our moronic Mayor. Then the fun really starts.
70 Mr Lee – I’m not sure how you make derivatives disappear as they still appear on these statements for BMO:
http://www.bmo.com/ar2010/fin_cfs_balance.html
You may notice something interesting. Almost indentical
amounts of derivatives are listed in the assets and the
liabilities. The net effect to BMO is a couple of billion$. I
suspect you get similar findings for other banks. Like one persons debt is anothers savings.
Hey Garth, I recieved a phone call yesterday from some Canaccord rep asking me to confirm my email address and when I asked him how he got my number he dropped your name??????
WTF?
Beats me. Have zero relationship with that company. They just wish. — Garth
Re: #62 kc
I recently moved from Ontario to BC and subsequently registered my vehicle in BC.
My new plates have the “Beautiful British Columbia” slogan. You could opt for “The Place on Earth” slogan instead but it’s another $75 premium…
I went to one of your seminars in Vancouver a while back and filled out one of the “info cards”.
Oh well lesson learned, no biggie…..
I already have a broker so they wont be getting any business from me .
Keep up the good work.
Back in May I bought a bunch of PKO bond fund (NYSE) for the yield. Recommended by Gordon Pape. Around 7% at the time and just a place to park my USDs that I bought when the loonie was on a tear.
I’m getting the dividends all right but the share price is down 15%.
I’m just wondering what it will take for the share price to go back up. Do rates have to go down for that to happen? Unlikely since rates are at historic lows and only have one way to go.
80 Davey Boy on 10.08.11 at 2:14 pm
Closely examine your new BC Drivers License… there is no choice there…. those plates were the “5 ring circus” promo job and they should be paying us to hang them for the advertising ….
79The Emperor’s Clothes on 10.08.11 at 1:58 pm
—–
So NOW they know who you are. LOL!
DoomedinSask
Saskatchewan has always been delusional, is presently delusional and will always be delusional… a population can only inbreed for so many generations and then it really starts to catch up… but I digress – a better question to ask would be who gives a shite what goes on in Sask.
Oh Yeah, BC’s ” The Best Place on Earth” ad campaign.
Possibly one of the most revolting displays of self absorbed promotion I can remember. The only thing worse were the schmoe’s that paid an extra $75 to have it displayed on their car license plates….
Infantile bragging doesnt appeal to tourists. One can only imagine what people think when they see BC cars with those ridiculous license plates in their Province or State….. “Gee, BC, The Best Place on Earth, …..whats that make my home? The crappiest place?”
Perhaps a new plate that says. “All Crass, No Class”….
#9 Smoking Man: “I’m going to so educate like you like you have never scene”
Now there’s a quote for the ages.
#26 Trading Alert!: “Google has stolen a narrow lead over Apple, the same way Apple stole the lead from RIM.”
Wrong. It’s not about the hardware, it’s about killer apps & iTunes.
#85 Westerman
“…who gives a shite what goes on in Sask. ”
That’s Albertans for you…Come in to Sask. to plunder & loot like the barbarians they are and then when they can’t make a buck anymore from the “inbred population” ,get bored and return to their dirty tar-sands caves…Tsk. Have a good cry…..
Very nice day here in Toon Town .The sun is shining. I’m going out and bask in it.
Harper needs new customers 4 his Super Prisons of Profit. Guess who? YO KIDS‼
Sign Petition, link below:
Stop the Omnibus Crime Bill – C-10
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/stop-omnibus-crime-bill/
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.
.
Petition No. 2 Re Omnibus Crime Bill – C-10
Tell Parliament Child Molesters Deserve More Jail Time than Pot Growers
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/20/child-abuse-deserves-more-jail-time-than-pot-growing/
.
.
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♥….
#52 In the Maritimes..
ridiculous.
it’s not only groceries (and please tell me the last time you bought bread or milk or eggs ‘on sale’) but it is gasoline, heating fuel, electricity, water & sewer, insurance, bank fees, taxes, dental care, tuition, and more that have been subject to inflation. The luxury items have gone down.. well, even the ‘frill’ items have.. of course! They MUST deflate because the necessities are just too dear these days.
If you’re a boomer who had the benefit of getting a well paid job without having to take on huge student debt, who had a pension plan through your company, who bought your first house for $20,000, who bought your first car for a month’s pay.. well sure! I guess you’re going to be alright.
However, if you’re 40 and had to repay $25,000 – $40,000 in student debt while working an entry level position at a company that not only didn’t have a pension or benefits plan but also made you work from contract to contract things might seem different to you.
It’s a little harder to build wealth from behind the 8-ball.
#62 kc
I have never seen one of those personally, or maybe I am just not looking?
http://www.bcpl8s.ca/PDFs/BC%20Licence%20Plate%20Identification%20Guide.pdf
Hahah! Should have bought your car earlier. I thought those BPoE plates were by request only.
Going long “tin foil”
The sudden cheerful job numbers (north and south of the border) just when occupy city X is becoming mainstream is totally contrived.
” Did you even read the post? This is an ETF, which trades on an exchange, is 100% liquid and has its own asset value. Unbelievable… — Garth ”
Did you even read his post..? Don’t tell me you believe government inflation stats, please, I had you pegged as being too sharp for that.
<i…I hope the protests will wake up the puppet masses to this enslavement. Big biz pays no taxes and still asks for billions in bailouts. Then they tell us we need to cut our lifestyle and services. Canada can not compete with the world with high housing prices/costs. What a stupid country run by CONs/criminals.
Good point. It’s not just our government abiding by the dictates of the ruling class, which effectively uses its tools such as nation state governments, “too big to fail banks”, mega corporations, and the very powerful “reality” massaging mainstream media (which presents to you a false reality based on the propaganda they promote and the information they withhold.
All governments have sold their people out to varying degrees, particularly in the West. Of course, protesters in Libya, Syria and other Middle Eastern countries are lauded by our media. Yet predictably, our own protesters are labeled as, thugs, malcontents, troublemakers and anarchists because how dare our spoiled, lazy youth dare protest its western government, the promoter of democracy through bombs or butter…or whatever else it takes to install puppet regimes dressed in a humanitarian cloak.
Today, the tea of government is curdled beyond redemption by the soured milk dictates of its Master. Those most aware, disenfranchised and in despair are speaking out and/or taking to the streets in protest to their being sold out by those they’ve entrusted with their votes and taxes.
It appears we’ve reached a fork in the road where one fork leads us into being outright modern day slaves with a very dim and unsecure future, not for just our generation, but for those behind us. Or we can take the other fork where efforts are made to throw out the sour milk and refresh the tea of government to secure ourselves (The People and thus the Country) a better future and a better Canada.
U people are to obsest with money
Most think having it make your life better
Kiss my ring littke peasant. For – have money I’m specia
U all want it for the wrong reason
To show the world how special u are. U crave love and worship thinking u will be more loved. Nothing is further from the truth. Money has but one usfull purpose. Hookers bozze and drugs.
Burbon street tonight if I don’t pass outl
If you’re looking for a “trade” in times of uncertainty, sure this specific bond-ETF made a 5% move, but how an ETF that follows the VIX? Or an inverse DOW/TSX ETF?.
For what it’s worth, I completely agree with every bearish sentiment regarding the Canadian real estate bubble – but longer-dated government bonds also look like on heck of a bubble to me as the herd buries their heads into the sand.
I am long high-yield US *corporate* bonds, blue-chip resources, higher-yielding consumer discretionary and gold. Also buying stocks down here like a raped ape.
For those who failed to save/invest adequately or timed the real estate market wrongly in Canada, there’s always eastern Europe to retire to:
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Romania
http://werbas.blogspot.com/2011/10/romanians.html
#68 Industrial Guy
The headline number is highly suspect, and even the not-so-fine fine print tells a much different story:
60k added net:
+40k government
+40k self-employed (lol)
-20k private sector
The government ones is seasonal jitter that happens every September (where’s seasonal adjustment when you need it? must be negative I guess). Self-employed in Canada is what happens after UI runs out.
The finer print tells us wage growth is down again, and there was a decline in hours worked, so that’s full time employment getting converted to part timers.
Not exactly a recovery in the making.
Harlee
Judging by your reaction I must have hit the nail right on the head…
Canada jobs gain in September regardless of global turmoil. Looks like no job cuts and layoffs in the near future and imagine when there is a recovering economy later. I predict A LOT more waiting before RE market gets hit hard in any way.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/canadas-job-market-makes-gains-in-september/article2194122/
We saw a two day dead cat bounce in commodities but all commodities are in a bear market and will head much, much lower as will interest rates. A one month aberration as nothing tends to go down or up in a perfect straight line.
Based on what? — Garth
92 Devore on 10.08.11 at 5:18 pm
I have never seen one of those personally, or maybe I am just not looking?
On a bc DL directly above your face picture… in small letters it says “best place on earth” straight goods!! now thou depends on when your expiry date is. You might have an old one still.
yes the plates where optional if you wanted to shell out $75.00 (or to support the games).
–
There are always two sides to every story. Yesterday, a link showed a cobra chomping down on a puff adder, sans utensils, white wine and napkins.
The opposite side of this is a mongoose having an cobra for lunch. Quite enjoyed it, too.
In turn, it led to George Thorogood’s Bad To The Bone, live, 4:52. Did the mongoose actually eat down to the bone of the cobra? Or does the cobra have any bones at all?
These questions are much too complex for me to comprehend, so I leave it to y’all!
Smoking Man, this one is for you. Enjoy!
*
Super Rich Outta sight, outta mind; Spreading Protests Not just in NAmerica; ECRI Are we really in a recession? China “Sound familiar?!” wrh.com What I said — China and Russia are letting their economies flatline along with the US. When they all hit the ground, China, Japan and Russia cash in all their IOUs from the US.
Steve Jobs Fraudsters take a cheap shot; 2:46 clip Libya latest and Pathetic Propaganda; 4:57 clip American spring? Obomba Curious as to why he would want his records sealed. Got something to hide? (Birth Certificate); Interesting On Friday, a virus hit US drones. The US and Israel created the Stuxnet virus, which messed up Fukushima and delayed Iran’s nuke-powered facilities, to provide heat for their citizens. Was this payback? Plus this.
Astro-Climate Storms, hurricanes and ‘quakes for Oct.; Romney One and Romney Two “Romney made huge fortune while workers lost jobs, stockholders and creditors lost money.” Grasping at straws; Af’stan would be fine if us white trash left pronto.
TLT dropped what about $1.25 on the job numbers after a huge run-up. This tells you America has had it and unemployment will move up to the 15 percent mark or more in that country.
@#84 Moneta.
Yeah ! LOL
I guess I was the only one stupid enough to actually fill out one of those forms. ( I think they were raffling off a book or an “All expenses paid trip to the Poor House” . something like that……)
What an idiot eh?
More schmobs for Canuckistans!
CKNW in ‘couver got all shivery about jobs reports, up in Canada, 2nd best in B.C. Damn, if they’d just left it there but no they’ve got to interview some schmo from Stats Can who lets slip that the jobs increase was mostly teachers and support staff going back to work–ya know, Sept. kids an all.
mr. lee
what are the three maiden lanes?
#100 Westernman
Looking for a pissing match,aren’t you ? Ferget it,I don’t compete with amateurs. (Sorry for the crude language Ontarioians.We tend to be an earthy lot out here in the “vast wasteland”) :-)
Harlee
By “Earthy” I guess you mean bass- ackward, uneducated Neanderthals who can’t spell and go to family reunions to meet girls…
79 The Emperor’s Clothes on 10.08.11 at 1:58 pm
In Soviet Russia blog write to YOU!
In other news, YLO (this is a YLO blog, right?) is featured in Globe & Mail as a Top 100 employer. The employee stock purchase plan is mentioned.
Too bad the stock went all enron on them.
Actually, 45,000 people going back to work is not what I’d consider bad news. Maybe in your world. — Garth
The point your missing is how can you apply for EI when THEY went on strike? They weren’t locked out or layed off. Quit trying to spin those 45,000. They shouldn’t have been taken away last month OR included this month.
Garth,
Because Asia is not in Europe. — Garth
You do realize that bulk of the financing for Asia has come from European banks don’t you. I believe $3 trillion. Forget about bad loans. That’s a separate issue that isn’t an immediate term problem. The immediate term problem because of liquidity/solvency problems with Euro banks, all of a sudden Asia lost their single largest lender. You seem to constantly ignore it interconnectivity of Globalization and the banking conduit.
–
0:48 clip We’re all screwed! 2:27 clip “Oh, those money-junkies they are scared!” wrh.com, And here is how the paid-for and controlled m$m reports it; Getting Even “You have much more than your bank account says. You have your mind and your hands.”; Pensions Could be better in UK; Banks and Lenders Social media is a double-edged sword.
SolyndraGate Obummer’s Watergate moment? The US’ five grea macro-crises; Cometh the Creature It’s fiscal and deadly; Obummer “I am not a crook”. History rhymes and repeats.
Fukushima Getting rid of hydrogen before it blows and Rising Casualties; Russia “Which means they are going to use force and repeat the same thing they did to Libya.” wrh.com; NATO has failed; Ron Paul wins Where is the m$m?
Winter for here, Winter in UK. Kinda reminds me of The Steve Miller Band’s Wintertime, 5:31 clip, so Electric Bills go up (just in time); Lava in Alaska, Springtime in Paris; Crabs In Space Pic gives a better vision!
For the bond impaired readers, there’s more to the story than just the yearly return it pays. Over the last 3 years I’ve had a bond fund gain 20% in net value. This more than offsets the lower yield it pays as the fund price has risen. (as long as you capitalize on the gain eventually) And a move back towards more equity exposure will also capture the ride back up, “whenever” the markets have calmed and the game resumes.
my .02
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/77024934/
Tom DeMark on U.S. Stocks, Gold and Oil
interesting predictions
CREA announced earlier this year that in 2012 real estate sales in Vancouver were expected to drop 1%. But now with strong first 2 quarters, has revised it’s forecast to say that they don’t expect such a big price adjustment.
I don’t think that 1% is that much. Even the chart that they published doesn’t look right. Ya think they skew things a bit?
http://creanews.ca/2011/08/16/595/
#69 Timing is everything
$150 insurance? Does that mean it’s not for driving, just for theft? Sounds impossible to have insurance that cheap to drive.
I would love to live on an island in B.C., but what jobs are available? I’m in my late 30s, my wife doesn’t work and we have a 4-year-old in preschool here. I work half the year at a university and am able to save $30,000/year. In 7 1/2 years over here, I’ve retired $40,000 in student loan/credit card/Alberta health care debt, plus have saved 6 digits, all without my wife working since our son was born. I’m not at all enamored with Korea, but I think that’s more a case of being the outsider, not so much a knock on Korea itself. It’s very modern here, more so than most westerners would believe, and for an example, if I want to see a doctor, even a specialist, I just have to walk into a doctors office and they can see me. They don’t have the bottlenecks that Canada does because people pay for care, yet the basic doctors visit costs me $3. I think many Canadians have been riding the housing wave, but when it breaks, the reality is going to hit very hard. Cities like Calgary and the province of Alberta will be slammed if housing prices go down, as property taxes will follow. BTW, Koreans pay 50% down on houses, and nobody does even 15 year mortgages. Cash is normal in the developing world; credit goes to the rich countries like Canada. It’ll be interesting when the credit starts to dry up. Think 2008 but without buckets to bail like last time.
These are troubling times indeed. I live in Richmond, BC where the population of asians are greater than most cities in Canada. I have lately witnessed a couple of racist confrontations. Tonight, I was dining at (coincidentally) the hamburger franchise “White Spot” when I overheard a caucasion family spewing racist remarks at a quiet and demure chinese lady. I think they should rename this restaurant chain because it seems there are a few white supremist that believe this is their rightful HQ. The caucasion family, who appeared rough and uneducated, insulted the lady about how her “culture” is miserable and shouldn’t be here. The anger level was violent. The undercurrent of resentment from a lot of non-asians are rising. It seems that people want to blame “someone” for their misery, house prices, and unemployment. From Occupy Wall Street to yelling at any chinese person on the street. This worries me more than house prices or how this generation will retire in comfort. This will not end well.
#107 Patz….all governement issued stats are bogus and you are right to point out the obvious.
#119scared on 10.09.11 at 5:24 am
……………………………………………………………………………
So, what if anything, did you do or say in support of the woman who was being harassed by those bigots? Did you say anything to management?
I hope I don’t come off all accusatory here – I genuinely want to know since I’m not certain how courageous I’d be in the same circumstance.
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111008/more-canadians-buying-american-homes-111008/
Snowbirds go shopping
#106 The Emperor’s Clothes on 10.08.11 at 8:47 pm
@#84 Moneta.
Yeah ! LOL
I guess I was the only one stupid enough to actually fill out one of those forms. ( I think they were raffling off a book or an “All expenses paid trip to the Poor House” . something like that……)
What an idiot eh?
……………………………..
Was I an idiot too? Actually one company hosted Garth’s event and likely paid for the room, coffee, tea and sandwiches, etc. Out of courtesy I filled out a card with my email addy. I rec’d a few emails from them and politely declined their services, saying that we had chosen to go with another company. It wasn’t a big hassle.
#122daystar Snowbirds go shopping
——————————————————————
“That’s why most Canadians are using cash to buy their homes, using equity from their Canadian properties, experts say.”
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111008/more-canadians-buying-american-homes-111008/
Snowbirds go shopping with credit. The house of cards ponzi in Canada is bigger then the US bubble. How long can this ponzi last?
I hope this movement grows to the hundreds of thousands. Canada is nothing but a scam and I am starting to really hate this country of enslavement. Maybe it’s time to move to the land where dreams come ture. In some parts of the US I could work at micky d’s and live in a 4 bed 3 bath 2000+ sq house for well under $200K. In Canada that buys you a prison cell 300 sq condo. How will Canada compete for jobs when people in the US can work for 50-70% less and live better?
#89 Harlee
Hey man don’t be too hard on Sask we are part of the west also. I have relatives right across this great country and have spent time in every region. Sask is cold to be sure and does not have the beautifull mountains you folks have, but there is a beauty here nonetheless. Some people do give a shit what goes on here as the province took in 16000 more people than it lost last year. The numbers are no where near what you have in Alberta but are encouraging. Our conventional oil production is about to surpass that of your province. BHP Builiton is talking of building 5 new potash mines. We will see. PM Harper was in Regina last week and announced a new 50 million dollar pasta processing facility to be built at the new transportation hub west of the city. Billion dollar expansion of the CCRL refinery going on right now. Investors are starting to take a closer look at this province now that the NDP stranglehold has been broken. I could go on about the development taking place here so I hope you can see this is good for us all. We all can’t move to Alberta eh! I’ve had relatives and friends make critical comments of Sask but really I take it as just having a little fun, no more than that. Middle Canada is blessed with abundant resources too many to mention. Middle Canada is rising and folks are noticing. This is good for those that choose to come here. Alberta is a great place and those that go there I’m sure won’t regret their choice. Not sure the same can be said for BC or Ontario right now. I visit east and west of Sask every year and am happy to return to the land of living skies as folks usually are going home. WE are all Canadian and I don’t see any benefit of bashing other regions. I enjoy visiting and meeting people from all over Canada maybe try that with an open mind. By the way I don’t know where you call home in Alberta but on a cold January day here it takes me 10 minutes to get to work. There is a great quality of life here. Take care.
#85
A better question would be who gives a shite about you westernman. Where you from anyways? Cowshitetown or Admonchuk? Maybe Leduc ? Whatever..stay where you are and we will all be much better off ha ha..
Mike Brock: The hidden Canadian housing bubble
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/10/04/mike-brock-the-hidden-canadian-housing-bubble/
Wouldn’t buy a GIC now, but I’m currently enjoying the back end of a 3 year GIC paying out 5.25%, and the second year was 4.25%.
Well, 5.25% – 3.2% inflation = 2.05% real return which is 100% taxable. At 35% marginal rate, that’s 1.33%. Yes, impressive. — Garth
Canada’s housing bubble is all debt…..take a look
http://canadabubble.com/bubble-watch/2245-beware-the-housing-wealth-effect.html
#101 Stevenson,
Funny how you come here everyday complaining that everyone here has confirmation bias while you hump and pump every piece of info you can to support the market.
Canada’s job report was not the sign that we are avoiding a recession. Remember that August was also unexpectedly bad. Here is a good piece on it courtesy of Ben Radioux’s blog:
” September typically is a strong month for employment as the education sector, which employs many contract workers, kicks back into gear. In this case, nearly 2/3 of the jobs created (38,400) were in education. This is hardly impressive. Beyond that, the data was mixed. On the positive side, all of the gains were in full time employment while the typically high-paying resource sector added 17,000 jobs, ending a four-month down trend. On the negative side, private sector jobs declined by 15,000 while the typically high-paying manufacturing jobs declined by over 23,000. Quite tellingly, the FIRE group (finance, insurance, real estate) shed over 35,000 positions. There was also a gain of nearly 39,000 ‘self employed’ individuals, which is a catch-all category that can encompass discouraged workers and those whose benefits have run out. Take that one with a grain of salt.”
Gotta love the TSX falling knife
http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=TI0000®ion=C&snapshot=default
B.C. no longer ‘Best Place on Earth’ as slogan gets replaced, Now “Canada starts Here”
Off for a coffee and later a Turkey meal at my home town best #1 daughters’ #2 leaves and works far, far away and will be with us in our hearts and prayers.
Later I will have something to say, suffice to say it is no doom and gloom but it is not good for he/she who thinks all is well in the world of high finance best give their head a shake.
“Snowbirds go shopping with credit. ”
Yup and their not buying second properties at home because it’s just to dam n pricey here in Canada. But what happens to that line of credit when it begins to avalanche in on them when the Canadian real estate bubble finally pops. And it will!
#16 DoomedinSask
Volume of sales this september set a record as did the sale price. What’s driving this? In migration and an almost 0 vacancy rate combined with good job prospects and low interes rates. Lots of folk cashing out finding the greater fools but I have no idea where they will go unless they are building. As long as things stay as they are now prices won’t be going down anytime soon. I do agree with Garth that they will gp down when things change. Impossible to know when that will be. But frankly 300K for a 1000 sq/ft bungalow in Regina is crazy.
#118 blase
Sorry actual cost is $154. Pleasure use only. I have another ‘daily driver’….
http://tinyurl.com/3mn6j4a
I did pay the $50 charge for the ‘Agreed Value’ policy too…but that was optional.
http://tinyurl.com/3dtdk27
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/6223608301/
great pic for your screen saver. you just have to love bubbles.
#118 blase
FYI…Appreciate the info on Korea.
My cousin, his wife and their son live in Japan. They were in Japan, then moved to Vancouver for about 4 years, then decided to move back to Japan about 1.5 years ago. Had enough of Van. They can have a ‘better life’ there…His wife is Japanese (all have dual citizenship) and they have some family support there etc. So, it just works better, for them in Japan. Like I said…what works best for someone, probably does. The rest of cuz’ns family is in Skatch…and there was no way in hell she would live there.
It’s never too late to make a better decision.
Palebird
I must say it’s great fun getting all you sub-65 I.Q. Sask. residents riled up! It’s like teasing the chimps at the primate cage … great fun.
But seriously, in regard to your phoney,inauthentic defense of the shite hole popularily referred to as ” Sask. ” remember this: you can polish a turd all you want but in the end it is still a turd.
No. 26 Trading Alert! RE: IT idiocy
One of my friends, a computer scientist, gave me this quote which has stuck with me ever since:
“I wish I was IT, but I’m not dumb enough”
My own company’s guys are not too bad, but some are just dumb all over (and a little ugly on the side).
Recent rally made no scence, I knew it was being proped up
Zero Hedge reports.
Tim Geithner make a few phone calls, and tell foreigners to dump Treasurys (knowing full well Op Twist was coming and the Fed would backstop the entire curve), and to buy stocks instead in order to prevent the next relapse of the Great Financial Crisis?
Why this is true, just before operation twist got announced I saw with my own eyes There was a huge volumn of bonds for sell.
They can only prop it up for so long………..
Nice theory, but OT was well-known well in advance of it taking place. Geithner did no such thing. — Garth
#138 Timing is Everything
Good for your cousin that Japan works for them. Like you said what works best for someone, probably does. How are the rest of the cuz’ns doing in Saskawasteland? No way in hell she was going to live here but LOTS of new immingrants ARE coming. Best of luck to ALL.
#139 Westernman
Oh, I get it now…. Alberta is just a slightly shinier turd (cow patty). Thanks for ‘cleaning up’ the misconception.
If the Canadian dollar is so safe, why would it fall against the USD when commodity prices are high?
Because the US$ appreciated, devaluing our currency and commodities denominated in American dollars. It has nothing to do with safety. — Garth
#142 Habbit
They just (mostly) wanted to be back in Japan.
All my cousins, bros and sis seem to be doing very well in Skatch. (S’toon/Regina/Moose Jaw/Estevan). More cousins and a niece are in Calgary …doing very well also.
I go back to Skatch often (Spring/Summer mostly)…The economy seems fine…so far. I must say, I have a great time. Go Riders? :( What happened this year? I hope they win tomorrow….
Habbit #125
I think you got your wires crossed my friend. I was born in Watrous (near the beach resort of Manitou Lake) and live in Saskatoon. You really don’t have to list the benefits of Saskatchewan to ME,I live it. You covered quite a bit in your post. I’m quite interested/excited about the exploration and extraction of light sweet crude oil in the southern part of the province,the Bakken formation. There’s more LSC in Saskatchewan than any other province,and in time this could pay off big. The only thing is finding easier/cheaper ways to extract it.To be sure things aren’t perfect in Saskatchewan but like you say, this province has a lot more going for it than many realize. In time,I think they will realize it.
I love alot of places in Canada,but I still got more travelling/exploring to do.And I plan to as long as my health (and wealth!) hold out. Right now,I’m going out and soak up more of the Saskatoon sun. Thanks.
@138 timing is everything “His wife is Japanese (all have dual citizenship)”
Japan does not allow dual citizenship. Pity anyone having to live there now after Fukushima, especially with children. Food contamination will be an issue for years to come.
Have a scroll thru this site: http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/
Timing is Everything,
Good one! ” Cleaning up the misconception ” LOL
First of all, I’d like to thank Garth for allowing these infantile exchanges to continue. There is nothing like a healthly dose of disrespect and animosity to add drama to an otherwise dull and mundane day.
However, I would like to point out to the defenders of the ” big piss all ” moonscape of Sask. that just because YOU happen to be living in a landfill that does NOT magically transform it into the French Riviera – it’s still a landfill and you are only fooling YOURSELF.
It has nothing to do with safety. — Garth
Sure it does – the safety (real or perceived) of the US$
The question was not about the US$. — Garth
NETHERLANDS –
=
Fraud, fiscal irregularities found at half of Dutch real estate companieswww.ipe.com/…/fraud-fiscal-irregularities-found-at-half-of-dutch-rea…
‘Operation Nokvorst’, finding fiscal irregularities at half of them.
The ministry said: “For instance, companies attempted to keep revenue off the books by using middlemen and through other structures. The IRS investigations uncovered a total of €1bn that companies failed to report.”
In addition to back taxes and fines, criminal procedures have been started in eight cases, including the notorious property fraud involving former directors at Philips pension fund and Rabo Bouwfonds.18 May 2011 – During his opening address, Martin Hurst, editor of IP Real Estate, said: “The Dutch IRS has found evidence of fraud or fiscal irregularities
Multinationals use mostly cooperative excluded liability. In 2006, the Chamber of Commerce 3834 cooperatives in 2010 that number increased to 5062
==============Sunday, October 09, 2011
Tax haven: Dutch hypocrisy in times of crisis
A useful summary by Radio Netherlands:
“There is a good reason why 80 of the 100 largest companies in the world have a holding company in the Dutch tax haven. The Netherlands is employing double standards, argues Rodrigo Fernandez, financial geographer and multinational researcher.
…
The Dutch government should be asking critical questions about the tax haven created by a small army of 15,000 tax experts, notaries and legal specialists at the Zuidas business district in Amsterdam. The taxation revenue of one billion euros in the Netherlands is generated at the expense of many times more tax revenue lost by other countries.” (TJN)
“Geithner did no such thing”…
Garth, Garth, Garth. Now you are becoming an apologist for the Fed? Just last year you were all telling us that the end is nigh–and now you’re saying everything is going to be sunshine and lollipops? So, you think this global game of greed, deceit, corruption, and fantasy money is gonna go on forever, huh? So, Mr. Turner, if everything does go in the shitter, who will you blame then? Of course it’ll be your “bloggers”. Like Celente said, they’ll start blaming THE PEOPLE.
Personally, I don’t give a rat’s ass what happens. I’ve seen people’s entire livelihoods vanish. I’ve seen university graduates with $100k in debts end up on welfare. I’ve seen guys work 40-60hrs a week with nothing to show for their 20-30+ years of hard labour. Marriages have dissolved, families destroyed, and even heard of one suicide. Don’t patronize me anymore. The U.S.–if not the entire global economy–is on borrowed time. The world leaders are out of bullets and now they’re getting nervous. There is NO hope left because the system is set up to fail. Destruction by design. This isn’t some right-wing conspiracy stuff. One doesn’t have to be an Einstein to see that we, as global citizens, are on an unsustainable path. You think your “money” is going to save you? I’ve got news for you buddy. It’s going to be your own unmaking. History has proven it time and time again. Empires have come and gone, societies have risen and fallen, all on the same premise: GREED and CORRUPTION. But then again, I expect nothing less from a former politician…
Rant all you want, but there’s a zero chance the US Treasury Secretary alerted market participants in advance of a Fed move. The fact the Fed would do Operation Twist was widely known before the announcement. The world may be an unfair place and you hate it. But try to work on your credibility. — Garth
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1067083–these-men-profit-from-wild-market-swings
#85 Westernman –
”Saskatchewan has always been delusional, is presently delusional and will always be delusional… a population can only inbreed for so many generations and then it really starts to catch up… but I digress – a better question to ask would be who gives a shite what goes on in Sask.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash_Corporation_of_Saskatchewan
A lot of people who rely on food production in the world should give a shite. You should too. Stocks a good buy right now. Think I’ll buy some more.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-top-100-statistics-about-the-collapse-of-the-economy-that-every-american-voter-should-know
#88 If you can believe it, one out of every seven Americans has at least 10 credit cards.
#78 The total amount of student loan debt in the United States now exceeds the total amount of credit card debt in the United States.
#65 In 2010, the number one U.S. export to China was “scrap and trash”.
#46 According to Paul Osterman, a professor of economics at MIT, approximately 20 percent of all employed Americans are making $10.65 an hour or less.
#39 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 18 percent of all homes in the state of Florida are sitting vacant. That figure is 63 percent larger than it was just ten years ago.
#9 The poorest 50% of all Americans collectively own just 2.5% of all the wealth in the United States.
what a list.
things will get better, won’t they?
#146 Harlee
Thanks for untangling my wires! Have a great day in Saskatoon. Awesome place.
#143 Timing is Everything.
Too funny! This blogs a hoot! I live in Vancouver, it’s just a place to live(expensive mind you), I don’t really feel one way or another as far as living here goes. Lots of nice places to live throughout this great land, but I never let my self-esteem suffer one way or the other as our worth as humans transcends all these frivilous limiting criteria.
By the way my dad can beat-up yours!
#148 Westernman.
You are too funny! By your own admission, child like too. Go figure.
Ronaldo,
Thanks for joining the fray. I might remind you that Sask. has been in existance as it is presently known for a mere 100 years and the world has gotten along just fine without it’s priceless contributions all this time.
The world needs Sask. like a fish needs a bicycle.
52 years on this planet just discoverd the secit to happyness. Please for give the drunking key strokes on the black barry. Wow. It hit me like a titainum tip bullet right between the eyeballs. My son u know the salesmen dude. He
DELETED
Westernman –
IF you are “from” Alberta then i would guess you are just another of the flakey carpetbaggers that have come here to get what they can while they can.
In any event you certainly don’t “speak” for the majority by a mile.
I’ve spent the last about 40 years mostly in small town Alberta and have met so many great Sasks that have come here over the years and for the most part they have had the true spirit of the West that is now rapidly disappearing with the onset of the carpetbaggers that have come to Calgreedy and Edmonton to make their ways and change things so that the old simple ways of freedoms and trust become the exception now rather than the rule.
If you want and promise not to come back i will gladly buy you a one way ticket to Vancouver so you can show them your intelligence and intellect and perhaps even become a true leader in that economic and social wasteland.
Great meal and a all-a-round good evening with my new beautiful granddaughter sitting at the head of table.
Thinking about it, best we give thanks for living in Canada because having even half of what we had prior to you know who we are still better of than most.
Happy Thanksgiving y’all
Hicksville Alberta –
” I’ve spent the last about 40 years mostly in small town Alberta ”
That says it all – you are immediately discredited.
You should immediately stop attempting to think as you are obviously not equipped for it and go back to listening to Jhonny Cash and swilling Pilsner beer.
#147 Onthesidelines
You could be right. I remember they were going thru a bunch of immigration red-tape of some sort. I thought it was for citizenship…??
They were married in Japan, had a son, lived there for about 9-10 years, then moved to Whistler/Vancouver for about 4 years, and back to Japan about 18 months ago. Ya got me curious now. I’ll ask them.
BTW, they live in the south part, but ya that Fukushima
stuff is bad.
Garth, @ #159 –
“DELETED”
That’s not fair! Now we’ll never know “the secit to happyness”.