Fini

As everything slows, nowhere will this be felt more than the amusing west coast. Unable to learn the lessons of California, BC residents are in for a big shock. Apparently it’s not enough to just make everybody horny about houses. You have to have an actual economy, too. Bummer.

Five years ago almost 20% of California’s GDP was real estate-related. Today it is the richest failed state in the world, unable to pay its workers or feed its prison inmates. Real estate values have collapsed in all regions, save the tony enclaves of places like SF. Now BC’s been traveling the same road, hooking its star to housing, delusional in the belief Vancouver is the new New York and Victoria the reincarnation of London.

In fact, the province has institutionalized real estate greed. The BC Assessment authority reviews the value of every property every year, making government a stakeholder in rising prices. Local newspapers run eager stories with each new round, actually counting the number of ‘millionaires’ created by a faceless bureaucrat working for a tax-thirsty government. Only in the Lower Mainland would a higher assessed value on your house be considered a good thing.

The result has been the creation of the most unaffordable place in North America. In terms of the ability of BC families to buy houses where they live, it’s among the most inhospitable housing markets on the globe. The average SFH in Vancouver is over $1,000.000 (but dropping smartly), the average bung is $822,300 while the average for all properties is $627,994. For that you can buy two fine houses in most of the country and almost four in the US.

Incredibly, though, salaries in BC suck. The median household income is less than $70,000 and the average is about $83,000. Families in Toronto make 27% more and yet pay 50% less for the average digs. In BC the new home construction industry has just crumbled (thanks in part to the HST referendum), while the resource sector languishes along with the US economy.

Most importantly, there are no economic fundamentals supporting the most expensive housing market in North America. It’s all TV commercials, jingoism, best-place-on-earth propaganda, media distortion and the collective madness of the poor souls who live there. This silliness has created a city in which 72% of average pre-tax income is required to support the average home purchased with a 25% downpayment – even at historically low interest rates.

But, it’s ending.

I’ve told you this was coming for the last two years, Is there any doubt left? Consider the latest markers from Vancouver:

  • Fewer than 2,250 properties of all kind sold last month. It was the third-worst September in a decade.
  • Listings are exploding (as I told you they would once people smell the wind). There are 20% more than a year ago. And they swelled 21% in September from August.
  • Of every 100 properties for sale, 86 didn’t find a buyer last month. That 14% sales-to-listings ratio is the lowest in a year, and the point at which buyers call the shots.
  • The most dismal news for sellers is that the media’s going negative. Hell, even hormonal Global TV has awoken to the fact blood’s in the water. The piece below is part of a series on how the under-35 set is screwed, with an increasing number of people opting to escape from Vancouver. Apparently there are places in Canada where you can afford a house without having to sell your children into bondage. This is news west of those big stoney things.

Of course, this is not just about Vancouver, Victoria or the lower Mainland. Foolishly, BC has happily allowed itself to become the poster province for real estate excess, flaunting an unearned wealth and encouraging its citizens to wade deeper into an inescapable financial quagmire. As the inevitable descent takes place, the sad spectacle will be watched from across the nation.

There will be no tears.

 

205 comments ↓

#1 Victoria on 10.04.11 at 9:43 pm

Garth – everything is fine in Victoria. This guy is the President of the Victoria RE Board and he says this …

http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_south/victorianews/news/131066118.html

#2 Anonymous on 10.04.11 at 9:43 pm

Occupy Bay Street.

Expect Us.

Will you be less anonymous then and actually stand up for your beliefs? — Garth

#3 Ben on 10.04.11 at 9:48 pm

If your pension is in the TSX your working longer.

That has proven not to be the experience. — Garth

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.04.11 at 9:53 pm

The infamous Vancouver realtor phrase “BC – Bring Cash” will soon become “BC – Big Crash”.

#5 East Van on 10.04.11 at 9:55 pm

I Bought Vancouver condo 2001, paid the mortgage in full in 2009, and sold in 2010 at almost triple the purchase price. I am now paying $1500 rent for a lesser place. My condo money is withering away in “balanced” investments, and real estate prices are continuing to rise. I am beginning to regret selling my home.

So buy one. Tell us how it works out. — Garth

#6 Demos on 10.04.11 at 9:57 pm

“We are the 99 per cent”

Inspiring Mark Ruffalo Guardian article …

http://tiny.cc/vzdzl

#7 April on 10.04.11 at 9:58 pm

#1 Victoria – more spin from the RE industry that only fools believe.

#8 Jon B on 10.04.11 at 9:59 pm

I’m just surprised RE values have hung on this long. The ride down is going to be spectacular here in BC.

#9 neo on 10.04.11 at 9:59 pm

I suspect Toronto will be the exact opposite of the Vancouver numbers. It will be interesting watching this bubble pop at different times at different speeds at different locales.

#10 CyberD on 10.04.11 at 10:02 pm

The only time my wife gets excited is when Don Cherry is on Coaches Corner or when she reads your blog. What’s up with that?

Back to Business – The world has gone mad and has not learned anything in the last 5 years. Anybody who thinks what happened to the States cannot happen in Canada is a fool….a greater fool.

Debt is Dept – The US is drowning and let’s face it they are in no position to ever pay that kind of money off. The Europeans are going down in flames. The world is inches away from going bankrupt and people are buying million dollar homes? Get me off this planet! lol

#11 stuart on 10.04.11 at 10:02 pm

ahh the middle kingdom migrants will take over as prices go down..
soon the real estate pumpers will be moving across the country. they take home equity loans and buy in PEI !!

#12 VancouverContrarian on 10.04.11 at 10:03 pm

Bring it on. I have a relative that said that she and her husband would ‘buy their dream house’ when their east Vancouver shack that they paid $750K to “doubles or triples in value over the next few years”. She’s a high school teacher; he works in sales.

Such stupidity should not be rewarded.

#13 Tim on 10.04.11 at 10:05 pm

Vancouver is a house of cards, it has a mediocre job market and the salaries are lower than what you can make in Calgary, but don’t compare it to California, the failed state which is crippled by regulation and has an incredibly dysfunctional, convoluted political system. OK our Premier isn’t exactly the brightest bulb on the porch, but at least our political system functions much better than California’s. California can’t pay for their prisons, thanks to Harper they’ll be saying that about Canada soon. We won’t even talk about the 65 million dollar fighter jets, which we don’t need…

The other thing Garth fails to point out is that interest rates could stay low for years, given the world wide contraction and slowdown. Anyone that has a steady job will be able to continue to benefit from abnormally low rates, which are unlikely to rise substantially any time soon.

#14 JSS on 10.04.11 at 10:06 pm

Garth,
Any comments about today’s TSX numbers, and whether it’s a good time to buy Canadian Financials, REIT’s, utilities stock?

A lot of people decided so at 3 pm. — Garth

#15 In Garth We Trust on 10.04.11 at 10:07 pm

Just wondering Garth if you will one day put all these blogs you have posted over the last three years into a book. Perhaps include some memorable comments from your loyal following.

A hell of a scary thought. — Garth

#16 Wild Side on 10.04.11 at 10:09 pm

In the Toronto Star today, there was an article about how there are bidding wars by potential renters for downtown Condos in downtown Toronto.

I just found this article somewhat suspicious until they started quoting Real Estate Agent, Brad Lamb, who was speaking of bidding wars for rental condos and it wasn’t to buy, but to rent.

I soon realized that again this was the newest angle of propaganda by the realtors association, pumping downtown Toronto condos in just another fashion.

I know for a fact that there are 100’s of downtown condo units that have not found anyone to occupy them, especially for the rents that they are requesting.

Just a very interesting article by a very naive young journalist!

#17 zloy on 10.04.11 at 10:09 pm

well. all signs are in, but the prices still high – when is the promised RE meltdown?

#18 Mr. Lahey on 10.04.11 at 10:10 pm

Everyone on this lovely blog knows what those birds circling Vancouver are…

#19 U-The Man on 10.04.11 at 10:20 pm

No tears……that is for sure! Rewarding big spenders while punishing savers, has ruined all economies world wide. I blame the sheeple of the world but also the shameless financial predators, who ecouraged them to spend and speculate in real estate. Unfortunatley all of us will suffer while the great reset happens. Let us hope it does not last long.

#20 Aaron - Melbourne on 10.04.11 at 10:21 pm

Take a browse down under at balooning stock unsold, price reductions and days on market.

http://www.refindhouseprices.com

(suggest you start with Google maps and pick a few random suburbs in your choice of state).

#21 Waiting Game on 10.04.11 at 10:22 pm

Great post Garth, but I think you are stretching to say BC Assessment Authority has any affect on prices.

Each January they value properties as of the previous July, based on sales that happened around that time. They are just reporting what actual greater fools have actually paid…just like any other professional appraiser does.

By always looking a year back, its hard to see how they could have any influence on the present or future.

#22 sam.i.am on 10.04.11 at 10:27 pm

I can totally relate – the couples in this story were me and my wife and kid in 2002 fleeing SF bay area for much the same reasons – wanted a house but RE prices were out of control and didn’t want to be perpetually house poor. Good luck to the couples in the news clip. Hope they read this blog.

#23 Victoria on 10.04.11 at 10:29 pm

I don’t think my earlier comment was posted.

This is the problem. From the President of the Victoria RE Board.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_south/victorianews/news/131066118.html

#24 sam.i.am on 10.04.11 at 10:31 pm

@lahey
Everyone on this lovely blog knows what those birds circling Vancouver are…

===

Dodo’s?

#25 Dan in Victoria on 10.04.11 at 10:33 pm

Yeah, its been one big pyjama party here in BC.
It’s coming to an end.
Well…..Except at the legislature.
Conceit rules.

#26 Markey on 10.04.11 at 10:34 pm

Pinky: “Gee, Brain, what do you want to do tonight?”
The Brain: “The same thing we do every night, Pinky—try to take over the world.” http://www.advisor.ca/news/industry-news/flaherty-carney-should-be-global-regulator-60205

#27 Demos on 10.04.11 at 10:38 pm

Ben Bernanke agrees with Wall Street protesters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVXEYoo46ZY&feature=player_embedded

#28 [email protected] on 10.04.11 at 10:38 pm

A slow and steady decline is likely in BC prices – our new Premier in BC and CMHC wouldn’t like to look like dupes for ruining the province with debt. My concern municipalities drunk from exorbitant properties taxes brought down to earth. Don’t feel too good since I bought a REIT ETF in July, but I’ll weather it. Noticed Preferred Shares ETFs are slipping – are these types of preferred shares you would recommend Garth?

Preferred shares have not slipped, and continue to pump out their dividends. — Garth

#29 KRMCD on 10.04.11 at 10:44 pm

There is a great deal of similarity between the Canadian economy and housing market and the Australian one. Unfortunately for the Canadians, they do not have the option of deposit money in guaranteed bank accounts and earning 6%pa, as is available in Australia.

Perhaps you could all move to Australia, and over inflate the property prices even further. Then once the bubble in Australia bursts (1-3yrs), you could move back to Canada, and pick up some bargain real estate.

Additionally, the only bears in Australia are the drop-bears, and they only eat about 3 people each year.

#30 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 10.04.11 at 10:45 pm

BEWARE OF BONDS BEARING GIFTS…

Bond investment math is a bit funny… (perverse actually)

Imagine a perpetual risk-free government bond that pays 10% and is issued at $1000 face value at a time when the market interest rate is 10%.

Now initially this bond has a market value of $1000

Now imgaine this bonds does as promised and dutifully pays out $100 interest every year forever. (10% of the $1000 face amount).

Now imagine the market interest rate falls tor 5%. Now, a new $1000 bond pays only $50 per year. But our older bond is paying $100. So it’s worth twice as much, $2000.

Imagine that later interest rates fall in half again to 2.5%. Our old bond is now worth $4000 since it pays out $100 per year in a world where new bonds pay just 2.5% or $25.

Wow if we own this bond we get a real warm and fussy feeling. We love this bond. It was supposed to pay us $100 per year forever and it has done that. But not only that we find we can sell it in the market for $4000!

This is amazing. What a gift our bond has given! We may name our first born after it!

We brag about our bond so much that our friend buys one like it but of course must pay $4000.

Now our friend is going to get his $100 a year just like us. But that’s only 2.5%.

And what is the chance that interest rates will half again so that our bonds can go up in price so more?

Actually what has happened that is that gift-giving bond has turned into a dangerous thing.

Our friend’s bond (and ours) is now more likely to fall in price than to rise.

Sure it was nice that our bond soared in value to $4000. Real nice in fact. But now the lazy sot is only paying us 2.5% a year on its market value. (Even though it is still $100)

It gave a great big capital gain precisely in order that it could REDUCE our market return going forward.

Paridoxically, (perversely) when an existing long-term bond wants to give you a lower market interest yield it has to give you a capital gain, a price rise.

In a sense our bond gives us a gift precisely so that it can stick us with a lower market return.

This is just how the math works.

Think about it.

Now what if interest rates soard back to 10%. Now our bond has to plunge in market value by 75% back to $1000 so that it can give a higher market yield. Its market yield then rises from 2.5% to 10%.

Those assets that have already given the biggest capital gains be they bonds or houses may be setting you up for a fall.

Strange things things, these bonds…

Stocks work a bit the same. If dividends are to be constant then if the stock market wants to give you a higher dividend yield the market price of the stock has to fall.

Paradoxically, the asset that falls in price may be the one that is setting up to give you a higher return. The asset that soared may be setting up to give you a low return. (It already gave ans is out of juice now)

It all makes sense, Buy low, Sell high, not the opposite.

#31 Nick on 10.04.11 at 10:46 pm

Garth, Garth… You can’t compare BC and California. They have world-class weather down there, and mom and pop-style companies like Google, Oracle and Apple. Please. Here we have both feet on the ground. And we don’t take the highway to the airport because there’s no highway to the airport. Please.

#32 Derek R on 10.04.11 at 10:59 pm

#29 Dr. Fred on 10.04.11 at 10:42 pm wrote
A single data point does not a trend make.

And yet every trend starts with a single data point…

#33 MC on 10.04.11 at 11:02 pm

Garth, you have done a terrific job with this blog. I wish more listened to you.

I’m 24 years old with a substantial sum to put away for retirement. Should I stick to preferreds, bonds, and REITS as you recommend or are there riskier asset classes I can explore, considering my age? Many thanks.

#34 walter safety on 10.04.11 at 11:04 pm

# 11 Since you mention PEI .I spoke to new retiree there last week .His wife says he should take a job as an house appraiser /inspector because the HELOC activity has exploded.
My guess is the banks will finally lend to maritimers as the banks want to profit from the recent prosperity on PEI and from islanders lack of experience – with predatory lending.
Meanwhile they have re-elected the government that has them in so much debt they will never pay it off.

#35 wetcoaster on 10.04.11 at 11:06 pm

Victoria RE Prez is smoking too much bud sitting on the top of crumbling Bear Mountain. The party never ends in V-Town when your delusional with a real estate license. Some of the crap that comes out of these so called professionals scares the bejeezuz out of me.

Not sure which was worse, that fool’s comments or our fearless non-elected leader “BC Christy” and her ho’ing the phony smiles after lying her ass about the BC Rail scam to cover for her brother.

#36 eddy on 10.04.11 at 11:09 pm

“The BC Assessment authority reviews the value of every property every year, making government a stakeholder in rising prices”

And a loser in falling prices. Market Value Assessment which seems to be everywhere, is a massive fraud. Because it is a TAX ON INFLATION. And inflation is a hidden tax, so it’s tax on tax, to be paid with your after tax income. Think about the 60 yr old bought a house for 50k, and now the taxman says its worth 500k.

Toronto voters should remember that Dolt On e-Guilty gave new taxing powers to The City of Toronto, which resulted in a new land transfer tax, that Ford said he would cancel, but he has not.

That tax virtually killed the upgrade market in 416: after commissions, legals, the new tax that the upgrader gets punished with (since he’s not a first time buyer), many folks just stay put.

Dolt On e-Guilty wasn`t content to tax us to death, he had to appoint The City of Toronto to add additional NEW taxes. And the land transfer tax, like market value assessment is a tax on inflation.
Transferring title is data entry and takes minutes.

#37 Waterloo Resident on 10.04.11 at 11:12 pm

Garth said : ( “This is news west of those big stoney things.” )

You mean the Rocky Mountains?
Yes, those are sort of ‘big stoney things’ aren’t they.
Thanks for the bit of humor, it brought a smile to my face.

—–

The one thing that I don’t understand is this: If BC’s real estate market has gone up so much just because they are at the coast, then why is it that Newfoundland homes are not ALSO selling for $1.2 Million each?

#38 Yousef on 10.04.11 at 11:13 pm

I can count on one hand how many successful computer programmers / code writers I know who have dislexia…

For those who are wondering, it’s the exact same number as the amount of colour blind bomb squad technicians I know…

It’s the same amount of millionaires I know who post on this blog about a $10K loss…

Zero.

Smoking Man, do you remember your old blog? I do. I remember your old IP address and DNS records as well.

For someone who claims to copy / paste others’ computer code into new trading algorithm examples (because doing it from scratch would just be too much like doing what the man teaches you to do when it comes to not plagiarizing), you are one dumb mofo.

If I actually thought you had the brains to trade anything batman, or to engineer high volume trading scams, I would do something. Right now, I’ve got you in my pocket, bitch.

#39 Mike on 10.04.11 at 11:13 pm

Keep waitin Garth, I’ve given up on your predictions. Just noticed a new condo development in van sold out before completion AGAIN. Throw in the news that the cheaper huge developments are sold out or close to in the valley adds up to no crash. Time to move here, it’s obvious you carry some strange childish resentment for the wet coast.

I actually love BC, but not people like you. — Garth

#40 Observer on 10.04.11 at 11:13 pm

All of this RE excess could have been prevented with proper government policy.
5/40
ZIRP
Foreign money

…to name a few.

#41 From kits on 10.04.11 at 11:14 pm

@east van…I think you need a better investment advisor.

#42 Wills on 10.04.11 at 11:16 pm

My parents lost a fortune in the previous stock market meltdown when they listened to Garth’s advice to buy. :(

I appreciate the outlook on the RE market – it’s right on the money (only you really did start a little early, Big G) however, you can’t see that you are a humper too, can you? I spot a cognitive bias. You’re invested, so you want others to be, too. Misery loves company, I guess.

#43 Victoria Tea Party on 10.04.11 at 11:17 pm

DESERVING OF…OBLIVION

Excellent contribution, Garth. In fact this post is so good that it should curl the toes of the real estate phoney-balonies, in this besotted province, and cause them to pause about the damage they’ve helped to wreak over the years.

It’s the nice folks depicted in Global’s item who are always “wreaked” the most.

To them I say, good luck, in finding a better life east of this insane West Coast pile of big rocks and its citified elites larded down by their outsized, narcissistic pomposities. They’ll get theirs’ one day, somehow. It’ll come.

While time is NOT on their side, it IS on the side of those who’ve chosen to struggle up the Coquihalla, through Rogers’ Pass and the Kicking Horse Canyon to a way better life on the prairies or farther east. T’is a grand country we live in! Opportunities abound THERE for those who care to look.

Meanwhile back on the Mean West Coast the various loaves and fishes who make up this essentially corrupt property industry, are helping to destroy a province that I dub a “used to be” instead of a “future place to be.”

Less than half a century ago industry meant just that, industry: as in fishing, mining, agriculture, forestry. You know, ACTUAL WORK PRODUCING ACTUAL THINGS that were sold to the world.

Those activities have diminished, for whatever reasons, and replaced by legions of well-coiffed snivellers, grifters, mountebanks and various grades of snake oil salespersons and their ilk, selling everything from out-sized leaking hot water bottles to their grandparents’ legacy of what used to be the “Best Place on Earth.” It’s all about the money!

Whether a table-troller sucking for tips, or some cretinous, obsequious “door-opener” for a Shanghai HAM freak-show, such activities don’t hold a candle to this:

–cutting down a good Douglas Fir,

–catching a Sockeye salmon,

–or, building a highway to northern resources. Jobs, jobs, jobs!

It’s not too late to reclaim BC’s marvellous heritage and steer it into a new forward direction. There are enough good people here who can. They have history to watch their backs.

Good on you, Garth. Jolly good.

#44 Makaya on 10.04.11 at 11:26 pm

“BC has happily allowed itself to become the poster province for real estate excess, flaunting an unearned wealth and encouraging its citizens to wade deeper into an inescapable financial quagmire” – epic. This sentence will be remembered for generations to come.

About the report on Global, all the credit goes to “gordholio” at Vancouvercondo.info who has put tireless efforts in getting the message out. Kudo to Global and its journalist who had the ball to go against their sugar daddy’s interests…

#45 Chris on 10.04.11 at 11:30 pm

Interesting observation. Fini eh?

I say, “meh”.

Here are the condominium statistics from the Calgary Real Estate Board for my neighbourhood (Connaught).

Sep 2006 Actives: 86 Sales: 34 Listings: 72 AvgSale$: 293,841 Median$: 269,500 AvgDOM: 31

Sep 2007 Inventory: 129 Sales: 28 Added: 83 AvgSale$: 320,457 Median$: 295,000 AvgDOM: 40

Sep 2008 Inventory: 155 Sales: 20 Added: 50 AvgSale$: 294,089 Median$: 272,000 AvgDOM: 52

Sep 2009 Inventory: 110 Sales: 43 Added: 78 AvgSale$: 290,315 Median$: 275,000 AvgDOM: 47

Sep 2010 Inventory: 143 Sales: 24 Added: 57 AvgSale$: 305,905 Median$: 284,500 AvgDOM: 63

Sep 2011 Inventory: 125 Sales: 27 Added: 64 AvgSale$: 327,220 Median$: 310,100

In case you missed it, prices are up beyond 2007 peak levels now in my hood. Calgary crashed and took a hair cut already. If you are waiting for it to happen (Squiddly) that train has passed by and left the station a long time ago…

#46 vyw on 10.04.11 at 11:31 pm

Actually median prices increased in Vancouver in Sept compared to August:

Sept: http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index?region=all&type=all&date=2011-09-01

Aug: http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index?region=all&type=all&date=2011-08-01

The median prices overall at $628K, for SFH ($897K), for townhomes went up, condos went down slightly.

SFH in Burnaby ($949K), West-side ($2031K), East-side (($842K), Port Moody ($803K – a big surprise), North Van ($973K) went up; prices in for West Van and Richmond went down.

One problem – volume of sales went down and listings went up. We’ll have to see if this is seasonal ie. if prices resume their upward trends over the winter months.

#47 Andy In Vancouver on 10.04.11 at 11:35 pm

Let me be the first to agree that the job market sucks here in Greater Van. Wife has been looking for several months, stepdaughter too. Previously the stepdaughter was able to get jobs within days (when she lived in Calgary with her Dad).

Granted, things have changed in a year … but it’s still really tough out here on the coast.

#48 45north on 10.04.11 at 11:39 pm

CyberD: Anybody who thinks what happened to the States cannot happen in Canada is a fool….a greater fool.

zerohedge mocks Europe, a sign of the times.

BPOE sinks quietly into the night.

#49 City Slicker on 10.04.11 at 11:42 pm

An interesting turn of events at Global TV. Wonder if all those flocking to Alberta will beef up RE there.
Thoughts?

#50 Stevenson on 10.04.11 at 11:48 pm

So what’s up with the prices holding up in Vancouver still? How about Toronto? I am pretty sure Canada isn’t exactly Vancouver spelled in a different way.

#51 Drew on 10.04.11 at 11:54 pm

We are here on the front line in Vancouver. It’s amazing the attitude shift in people within the last 2 months or so. People are openly talking about the market here being in a bubble. People I know who were total RE pumpers are staring to look scared.
This is going to be epic. People have no idea.
The popcorn is popping!

#52 Joanie on 10.04.11 at 11:55 pm

It has been a great tax grab for the provinces and municipalities, with property assessments increasing yearly. I wonder what happens however, when these property values fall? Can they swallow the medicine when tables reverse and has this event ever happened in real estate history?

#53 Question on 10.04.11 at 11:55 pm

If I recall correctly, in previous posts you have said someone with less than $1 million should not buy individual stocks. Does this thought also apply to preferred shares?

Preferreds are fixed income, not equity. — Garth

#54 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.05.11 at 12:11 am


“. . . be felt more than the amusing west coast actual economy, too. Bummer. But, it’s ending.”

All good things must come to an end, and this is no different. Point is to what the depths the cascade will go? Could be time for HAARP to shift the seismic consciousness back to reality, using the SAF and west coast as beacons.

Yell ‘Goodnight Grandma’ as she breaks on through to the other side!

“Today it is the richest failed state in the world, unable to pay its workers or feed its prison inmates while the resource sector languishes along with the US economy.” — How the mighty have fallen. The world’s 8th largest economy seems to be on par with Zimbabwe, fiscally speaking and we have duplicated them.

Stupid is as stupid does.
*
#145 Karl — Accurate and good post.

#158 Smoking Man — “All of it was true…but dumb dumb thing to do…..”

Yes, but the truth hurts. Now I know where you’re coming from. Cheers!

#25 Dan in Victoria — Hi Dan. Wanna have a crack at running the show? We could have a lotta fun on The Looney Left Coast!
*
3:29 clip Shanghai, not NYC the centre of biz.; Bear Market for the S&P 500; Propaganda “They are getting desperate.” wrh.com; Welfare A judge halts a state from cutting off payments; Occupy Europe As with anything else, it takes time;
Occupy Europe As with anything else, it takes time; 1:17 clip BoA corrupt? Get serious!

David Cameron Ummm, he may have clued into this (finally); London Docks Well at least somebody is doing well. Yesterday, American Airlines announced it was filing for bankruptcy; Protests growing all over; Commodities That’s us, but can GS be trusted?

Fukushima Govt. no longer measures plutonium, which probably indicates it’s pouring out excessively; Libya “At Ras Lanuf the US 82 Airborne detachment suffered heavy losses (there are not supposed to be boots on the ground…US breach of UNSC Resolutions).” “How many times must you be lied to before you understand that the government lies to you about everything?” wrh.com and NATO fails, like the west; Police State Obomba has certainly brought change; jess — Jersey, Channel Islands in the second para.; Health Premiums Courtesy ObamaCare.

Music downloading appears to be okay (so far); Putin He is not stupid, just protecting what belongs to them.
*
8:55 clip Astronomy is the dominatrix of the universe, by whipping us into shape, The Sun This is where TPTB live! Plus Technicolors.

#55 bystander on 10.05.11 at 12:14 am

Garth,
Your taste for photos will eventually kill your blog.
I’m out.

I eschew taste. Bye. — Garth

#56 My Hood on 10.05.11 at 12:16 am

In my hood (Connaught, Calgary, AB) condo prices are once again on the rise. They’ve passed the historic 2007 levels as of this month…

Sep 2006 Actives: 86 Sales: 34 Listings: 72 AvgSale$: 293,841 Median$: 269,500 AvgDOM: 31

Sep 2007 Inventory: 129 Sales: 28 Added: 83 AvgSale$: 320,457 Median$: 295,000 AvgDOM: 40

Sep 2008 Inventory: 155 Sales: 20 Added: 50 AvgSale$: 294,089 Median$: 272,000 AvgDOM: 52

Sep 2009 Inventory: 110 Sales: 43 Added: 78 AvgSale$: 290,315 Median$: 275,000 AvgDOM: 47

Sep 2010 Inventory: 143 Sales: 24 Added: 57 AvgSale$: 305,905 Median$: 284,500 AvgDOM: 63

Sep 2011 Inventory: 125 Sales: 27 Added: 64 AvgSale$: 327,220 Median$: 310,100 AvgDOM: 43

What does this mean? Calgary has been there and done that in terms of its correction. We’ve moved beyond it and are becoming expensive yet again…

#57 Gord In Vancouver on 10.05.11 at 12:21 am

There will be no tears.

__________________________________

Wrong – there will be millions of tears of joy!

#58 echo on 10.05.11 at 12:23 am

No tears. I do feel sorry for the young children with the egomaniacal parents that bought those houses.

On to another subject, sorry, but I have to refer to this as I just read it now from a few days ago. Perhaps anyone who didn’t see this can see inside his head and have a big ‘ol chuckle as well. Lots of people wish they had the guts he does. Admit it. lol Obviously there is no family, only friends, in New Orleans. : )

Smoking Man:

“Speaking of Crazy Drunk people……………………

This one is heading to New Orleans on Thanksgiving weekend. On St Patties Day this year I send out a scathing broadcast email to the FanDamily It was a beauty, held back nothing, hence there will be no Thanksgivings No Christmas No weddings no nothing…………..anymore…………

Best thing I ever did…………………………..”

Thanks to you Mista Smoka I’ve just ended my day with a belly laugh. LOL You are certifiable and need your own television show. Sort of a William Shatner, well, wasted.

‘NIght. : )

#59 EJ on 10.05.11 at 12:23 am

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.04.11 at 9:53 pm

Yep. And Saskatoon will follow a similar naming chain:

Saskaboom -> Crashkatoon -> CasketTomb

#60 Nemesis on 10.05.11 at 12:36 am

“…save the tony enclaves of places like SF.”… – Hon. GT

Yes, including Malibu & Venice (OK, Newport Beach, too) which have also proven quite resilient. I blame that on 3.5Men & Californication. Co-incidentally, Duchovny successfully ‘bitched’ X-Files back to Cali because the prospect of even one more ‘season’ of YVR’s ‘weather’ was unbearable. Needless to say, he didn’t succumb to the local RE hype either(although, obviously, price would not have been an issue). Smart dude (ABD away from his doctoral. Yes, literature, GT)

#61 Aussie Roy on 10.05.11 at 12:49 am

Aussie Update

1million Aussies claiming $4.5B from negative gearing into RE, makes?.

One person’s tax break is another person’s broken housing dream

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3206770.html

Five most speculated suburbs in Melbourne

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/home-buying-tips/five-suburbs-on-the-up-and-up-20111001-1l2hq.html

Melbourne’s auction market has virtually shut down for the grand final, with only about 22 auctions taking place around the city yesterday.

Even with another handful of auctions set for today, the final stock numbers will still be too low for the Real Estate Institute of Victoria to calculate a statistically reliable clearance rate.

The hiatus caps what has been the weakest spring opening on record for the auction market, with the clearance rate averaging just 54 per cent in September. The previous low of 61 per cent was set in 2004.

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/grand-final-day-ends-a-hard-month-20111001-1l2wz.html

Hang Seng dive spook investors

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/hang-seng-dive-spooks-investors/story-e6frg9jf-1226157581373

Debt Sales Drop to Least Since 2008 on Financial Turmoil: Australia Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-03/debt-sales-drop-to-least-since-2008-on-financial-turmoil-australia-credit.html

Aussie bank funding costs move sharply higher

http://www.theage.com.au/business/bank-funding-costs-move-sharply-higher-20111003-1l597.html

#62 Metro Van Observer on 10.05.11 at 12:54 am

Thank you for posting the video Garth. Did it ever hit close to home. I too am under 35 with two little kids and can relate 100% to the families interviewed. Add me to the list of young families looking at options East of the Rockies. They said it best when they said it doesn’t feel like you are making any financial progress. How can you with the outrageous cost of living here? For our generation the current path, with house prices the way they are, is financial failure…the type that you recently featured when profiling some 40 somethings. There literally is no money left at the end of the month after mortgage and bills. With both wifey and I working and earning over $120k combined, we are running on a financial treadmill. I don’t know how young families can manage here. A negative savings rate might offer an explanation. There is more to life than putting all one’s $ into a house in a region that is cold and wet basically 10 out of 12 months a year. Born and raised here but wanting out now. The nice cultural fabric we once had here has been shredded also in recent years, to add insult to injury.

#63 ted23 on 10.05.11 at 1:01 am

Wild Side:
In the Toronto Star today, there was an article about how there are bidding wars by potential renters for downtown Condos in downtown Toronto.

I just found this article somewhat suspicious until they started quoting Real Estate Agent, Brad Lamb, who was speaking of bidding wars for rental condos and it wasn’t to buy, but to rent.

I soon realized that again this was the newest angle of propaganda by the realtors association, pumping downtown Toronto condos in just another fashion.
——————————————————————-

I have had the same experience as Brad Lamb renting out a 350sq. ft condo at Bathurst and Lakeshore for $1250 with multiple offers and many offering to pay 6 months in advance. I pulled the ad after 30 people contacted me in just a two days. I was quite shocked to be honest and was expecting to have a more difficult time finding a tenant. I think Ill buy another and repeat.

#64 In Van on 10.05.11 at 1:07 am

Amen!

#65 Crash Callaway on 10.05.11 at 1:09 am

Yup the music will soon stop and all the suckers will discover they are stuck with overpriced unsellable homes.
How’s that market value scam workin out for ya now?
It’s a great plush elevator on the way up but a rough shaft on the way down.

No tears for sure.

#66 Vancouver_Bear on 10.05.11 at 1:24 am

BPOE – RIP

#67 Jody on 10.05.11 at 1:28 am

Oh I feel the lights, vibration and smell of a train coming through the tunnel. Places in Calgary sitting on the market for a long time, lots of people taking them off then putting them back on at a higher price. One might think the locals were on mushrooms, well, they did elect a Lieberal as leader of the CONservative party, go figure.

Below: These numnut morons think we actually came out of a recession, oh the lack of brain cells.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/going-lot-worse-ecri-achuthan-says-recession-unavoidable-141929160.html

#68 wtf????? on 10.05.11 at 1:43 am

Fair comment today Garth…the Emperor of BC has no clothes….there is no economy and since nat gas prices/licensing/permits have tanked BC is sucking hind tit for the revenue it needs to pay the outrageously paid army of fat sucking civic ‘servants’. So what has been the best place to look for cash…..well the ‘rising’ real estate prices of course. Our BC economy has become top heavy with unionized parasites and theres no money to pay them unless taxes are pushed up…way up…they win…we lose.

The property assesments and the police, water, fire, road, school taxes and levies ( isn’t it fun when the government calls the fee’s anything else but ‘tax’)
have been racheting up every year…..but the Province , cities and muni’s have all had the PR people out there denying denying denying and creating all sorts of nonsensical obfuscation about why real property taxes aren’t going up….I call bull pucks on that one. Richmond assesments alone are up 40% in the past two years alone.

Where does this festering civic greed leave the low paid citizens and seniors that just want a roof over their heads and others who aren’t flipping? In the crapper of course…….so what has the Province said about the skyrocketing taxes………”defer your payments if your over sixty five”………and what does the compound intrest effect have to do with seniors eating catfood? It makes them poorer faster thats what.

We need a good old ‘auto da fe’ for the fat pigs in the civic service to get these clowns off our backs.

Meanwhile I’ll spend the coming calamity and downturn living comfortably in the capital of Thailand ( classic Adam Smith move) where things cost one fifth of what they do in Canada ( I had chicken rice and veg with an ice coffee at a cafe for under two dollars an hour ago)and theres no sales tax on anything I consume……the civic pukes don’t get a penny in tax from me.

Canadians have to wake up and realize that the enemy is what the civil service costs and the waste in spending…..why do you think that EU countries are broke? The EU politicians and union leaders are fond of saying that ‘politics before profits’ is the proper direction for the economy….yeah right…look at where that has brought them. Socialists will spend all the money they can on the wrong things ( themselves) and always have an excuse why they need more. Look at the BC teachers……highest paid in the world when all direct and indirest comps are tallied…and they still complain that they are underpaid!!!!!! This is the ugly face of unionism staring you right in the face.

#69 bowlsh!t on 10.05.11 at 1:46 am

This guy is hilarious.. But he hits it on the nail.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVH8yVX3E1A&feature=player_embedded

#70 Rod on 10.05.11 at 1:48 am

Once again “BC” is translated “Lower Mainland”. Prince George is still very affordable housing that has never “over corrected itself”. Great place to invest.

#71 Bobby on 10.05.11 at 2:13 am

I was out to a number of open houses on the weekend here in Victoria. With the exception of one, every home was vacant. And no there was no rush of buyers having a look.
One realtor openly stated the one home was overpriced but she was just following the direction of the seller. In another the realtor said it was a buyers market with inventory at a 20 year high. He looked sad and forlorn.
There are For Sale signs popping up everywhere here.
No, irrespective what the VREB President says, I don’t
think prices are going to rise anytime soon.
This all reminds me of a TV interview on CNBC just prior to the US housing collapse. One pumper spoke of how the market would continue to rise indefinitely. The other, an analyst said that driving around he saw lots of for sale signs and suggested the pumper should get out more.
May I suggest that the RE Prez may want to do the same.

#72 Bill Gable on 10.05.11 at 2:14 am

He said it wpquietly. The waiter had just left us the cheese bread, and zipped off. ” The credit market has gone nuclear, and this time, the party will have our face scraping the bottom of the pool – for a lobg time. I have to admit, I looked at our charts and talked with our team in Tokyo, London, Bahrin, and Taipei. They are all holding their breath. Greece and now Italy are done – if Banks have been playing loose with CDO’s and chasing yield?
C’est tout.”
He paid. 42 years on the trading floor and he said he felt 120. This is the second po, in my lucky circle that have chucked it and warned me it is time to pay close attention.
Let’s put it this way, no Hawaii for a couple of monhs, this year. Then we’ll have to wait for the radiation soaked garbage to make living here on the edge of the world.

#73 Bill Gable on 10.05.11 at 2:16 am

*apologies for fat fingers at airport.

#74 Calgary Bubble on 10.05.11 at 2:21 am

This is what you call a multimillion dollar view in Calgary, sure its nice but this is not Vancouver yet.

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listing_detail-6379139.html

Looks like someone is trying to cash in for retirement before its too late;) I’m curious how this property will fare before shit hits the fan in Calgary.

#75 T.C. on 10.05.11 at 2:49 am

Property Taxes?

Har!

It’s worse than you think…

http://www.sbr.gov.bc.ca/individuals/Property_Taxes/Property_Tax_Deferment/interest_rates.htm

Note the two new categories in the property tax deferment vote-buying program created during April of 2010.

#76 Ravishing Rick on 10.05.11 at 2:52 am

Whoot whoot! Good one garth.

Best yet, dare i say!

Im a saver 34 with 300000 in the tank, wife and i make about 170 combined… And i feel poor living in vancouver. we live with my parents, which is fine as they are in their 70s and i expect them to come with us anywhere we go now. Get this, we save about 60% of our income… In most areas of the world id be living a good life, just not in vancouver. I tell everyone, move to california and lock in a thirty year mortgage, live free, and be fruitful! Vancouver is a resort town

#77 NormallySilentJeff on 10.05.11 at 3:03 am

I’m not Anonymous at all, yet I support them. Its taken a lifetime of research and learning to put all the global connections together, but the end result was learning that the bankers/TPTB are behind most of the wars and most of the corruption. I believe that the banking system is beyond repair. Countries need to print their own currency and eliminate the private central banks…Free trade agreements need to be amended or eliminated (they are allowing corporations to play one country off against another, with ever lowered environmental standards, which will result in irreparable damage to the earth). In case some of you have forgotten Fukushima….it is many times worse than Chernobyl and still not even partially contained. Our media is ignoring the most important events of our lifetimes….why is that happening? Its because the corporations own our mass media. They simply don’t report on things that don’t enhance their own assets. This is not a free society. Some people just believe the lies more than others.

#78 C on 10.05.11 at 3:10 am

Good for the young, smart BC’er to wake up and leave for better opportunities in other cities!

My wife and I did the same in 2000, we left BC and moved to Alberta. Best choice we could have ever made! More jobs, higher paying and more opportunites.

BC has always been “Bring Cash” and “Be Broke”. The scenery is beautiful but at what lifestyle price if you are house poor or jobless?

Best of fortune to those leaving BC, it’s a better road for your future.

#79 Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth on 10.05.11 at 3:31 am

Well, for the first time in a whole 15 months living in HongCouver, I heard the news mention a buyer’s market. The featured “economist” from nowhere less than Sauder was twitching from conflict between his brain hemispheres, one side clearly believing it is a top, the other somewhat censuring him at every word reminding himself he works for the “University” that actually “teaches” the realturd “course” for the VREA.

The “real” economist was featured afterwards, namely the one from the VREA, stating a “buyers market” with flat prices for 2 years meant good news as buyers would have enough time to do due diligence, and sellers may have to sharpen their Pencils. What was the flipside implication? That people have behaved like reckless fools? AND that even the VREA stated prices don’t always go up?

Tuen with the finest piece of journalistic independence and market leading investigative initiative, we had the magical blue screen… Van averages – $5k, Coquit languishing with -$50k and richmond the almighty also dropping by a few rounding off error on a million… So reality is the prices are dropping.

Ah yes, listings are up too…

Is this the moment? I sure hope not, otherwise why would we be different here?

BTW, all HELOC’s signed at CIBC by those who bought in the last 12 months with 7% cashback (lots of new mercs and bimmers around in driveways of recent listings labeled as sold) will be a little disappointed the money printer in the basement just ran out of ink.

Another cracker? Broadway condos and the kits 360 development? Not much movement on tue construction site and the sales office? – empty…

Now the one shoulder is firmly drawn, I guess a spurt of greater fools will come in over the next 6 months, then another shallow shoulder which will wallow on and on and on and on and on and on…

Meanwhile a bout of spending by flaherty to stoke tue inflation already started by the slide in the dollar seriously adding pressure on Carney. If not that, 2 cents on the liter of gas tax and a property tax increase to pay for the evergreen line will add pressure on tue already raped wallets let alone food cost inflation and energy hikes and the destabilizing effect of the HST debaculendum.

Dumber people in the rest of the world (the one not fiscally managed by Flaherty) already started making plan “B”‘s for much less, but here we don’t need to because “it’s different here”…

Marco from Vancouver
Unsee TV live
“Working for ourselves”

#80 Marco from the bestest place on the smallest part of earth on 10.05.11 at 3:36 am

Sorry about “fatfinger on iphoneitis” above, please replace all references to “tue” with “the” and “tuen” with “then”… Thank god allpe (apple – joke) just released voice capability on the 4s…

#81 Jon in Cowtown on 10.05.11 at 4:05 am

As someone who has resided adjacent to BC for several decades and who has been a keen observer of their RE market (lets face it, paradise isn’t the foothills unless you’re a ski bum), this is by no means the first time there has been a massive disconnect from reality. Say what you like about folks in Alberta but they seem a little more grounded when it comes to making a “business case”. As a result, many here are adjusting to the new reality with greater speed than our cousins in BC where RE seems to be treated as some kind of gigantic lottery.

I well remember one of the last run-ups, the exodus from Hong Kong in 97, it took until the early 2000’s before price discovery finally set in. In most other markets it would have taken 6 months but not in Lotus land where there is a long tradition of phishing for suckers whether they come from Europe, the US or now Asia. Given the exchange rates at the time it made BC seem reasonable, given the scenery.

Well guess what, Europe is in the shitter, so is the US and Japan. China I’d venture to say isn’t far behind. Neither are they likely to be overrun with Prairie refugees when the exchange rate is 2 or 3 homes for 1 in BC. Where will this end, down…down….down.

#82 Devore on 10.05.11 at 4:43 am

#16 Wild Side

I just found this article somewhat suspicious until they started quoting Real Estate Agent, Brad Lamb, who was speaking of bidding wars for rental condos and it wasn’t to buy, but to rent.

Since when does Brad Lamb play landlord? His mantra is build it, flip it, move on.

#83 Q on 10.05.11 at 6:30 am

BC only has two major problems right now…Chrusty Clark & Gregor Robertson….and not being able to grasp the reality that housing is more result than causal, when it comes to the economy.

#84 timo on 10.05.11 at 6:45 am

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/10/one-third-of-americans-one-paycheck-away-from-homelessness.html

Ten percent of survey respondents earning $100K or more a year say they would immediately miss a payment….

Sixty-one percent of those surveyed said if they were handed a pink slip, they would not be able to continue to make their mortgage or rent payment longer than five months.

and we are going to see cut-backs? This is not going to end well.

#85 David B on 10.05.11 at 6:59 am

Say what, moving East? Home of those “Defeatist People” get out of here …..

#86 allister on 10.05.11 at 7:46 am

10 Cyber D

“The only time my wife gets excited is when Don Cherry is on Coaches Corner or when she reads your blog. What’s up with that?”

Get a haircut, a clean shirt, dress pants and look into her yes when you talk, hug her and kiss her. Who knows what might happen after that.

Man, that’s a lot of work. — Garth

#87 bigrider on 10.05.11 at 7:49 am

#54 -Ted23- “…wil repeat condo purchase to rent out”

So nice of you to subsidize all these poor renters.

And just think how much more helpful you will be to them in 3 to 5 years when interest rates are up and rent increases have gone nowhere.

Good samaritan you are .

#88 timo on 10.05.11 at 7:50 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15177457

Critics of the austerity drive say it is deepening the recession, stunting Greece’s growth – the economy will shrink 5.5% this year – and stopping Greece from being able to reduce its government debt itself.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/italy-s-rating-cut-by-moody-s-on-concern-country-may-struggle-to-trim-debt.html

Italy’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s Investors Service for the first time in almost two decades on concern that chronically weak growth will make it difficult to reduce the region’s second-largest debt while fallout from the region’s debt crisis boosts financing costs

Europe is a powder keg. Keep the matches away and run if you hear thunder in the distance.

#89 Shane on 10.05.11 at 7:56 am

Garth, When is this wave of a correction coming to Markham Ontario??

Shane

#90 bigrider on 10.05.11 at 8:01 am

BNN just now.

” fear of U.S housing drop unfounded-Royal Lepage”

Seems like someone is getting scared, or maybe not, I guess it depends how you twist it.

#91 bigrider on 10.05.11 at 8:05 am

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1064773–highrises-we-re-tops-on-the-continent

“toronto’s condo boom is not slowing down anytime soon, most highrises than anywhere else in North America”

Why ?

#92 househornyhousewife on 10.05.11 at 8:20 am

Garth,

It’s about time this started to happen. I have been wondering for years why these people continue to live in BC when the cost of living is impossible. Is it the weather ? the snob appeal ? the great sushi ? … What could be so great that you would indebt yourself and your future generations for eternity in order to own a home in the most expensive place in Canada ?

I laughed through that BC commercial that was in the Global report that you posted … “you gotta be here”. Yeah right, if I earned what Steve Nash earns in a year, I would have no problem living there .. what a joke. Why don’t they go into Vancouver’s crappier neighbourhoods and get some of those residents to advertise for their province ?

You are so right, Garth … no tears .. none whatsoever. Stupidity and greed should be punished and not rewarded. Unfortunately, those 18-30 somethings have innocent children who did not choose to live their fates. At least the two couples interviewed seemed to have good heads on their shoulders and their children will reap the rewards (I suspect this is the minority).

Indeed we in the rest of the country will all be watching as BC faces the inevitable.

HHHW

#93 Stevenson on 10.05.11 at 9:02 am

Economy is doomed, but real estate in Canada “overall” is resilient? Looks like we are stronger then other economies.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/

This is reality people. Not speculation.

#94 In Garth We Trust on 10.05.11 at 9:03 am

To all the real estate pumpers out there. Let us make this blog really interesting. One of you take up Garth on his challenge to buy now and let us know how it unfolds in the next year or two. Let’s put some money behind our words. Surely there must be a taker out there amongst the “real estate only goes up” crowd. Any takers?

#95 Soylent Green is People on 10.05.11 at 9:10 am

We are the 99 percent
http://wearethe99percent.tumblr.com/

………………………..

Here’s a heads-up on the growing #Occupy movement, in solidarity with #OccupyWallStreet, @OccupyToronto, and the countless other @Occupy movements across the world.

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/krystalline-kraus/2011/09/activist-communiqu%C3%A9-occupy-canada-movement

………………………..

Occupy Canada
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=200760763327731&ref=ts#!/OccupyCanada

………………………..

Occupy Together
http://www.facebook.com/OccupyTogether

………………………..

Occupy Toronto
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=200760763327731&ref=ts
Saturday, October 15 at 10:00am

………………………..

Global rEVOLution Day – Occupy Vancouver
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=200760763327731&ref=ts#!/event.php?eid=272031446152373
Saturday, October 15 at 7:00am

………………………..

Meeting to discuss Organizing Occupy Ottawa Action
Thursday, October 6 • 7:00pm – 10:00pm
Location University of Ottawa – UCU 215 (next to ‘1848)

.
.
.
.
.

How about Occupy Re/Max? — Garth

#96 timo on 10.05.11 at 9:22 am

#94 Stevenson,

true reality is when The Canadian Press pulls info from a press release made by royal lepage. Thank god there is no conflict of interest as that would be unethical when it comes to reporting the news.

As long as you figure we can get wages to rise at 7.7% per year it will be full speed ahead otherwise more debt burden is going to be needed to keep this ship from sinking.

http://www.royallepage.ca/en/media/111005-house-price-survey-q3-2011-canadian-house-price-rally-extended-as-low-rates-and-relatively-stable-domestic-economy-brace-confidence.aspx?toolstips=1052&relatedcontent=1074

#97 Stevenson on 10.05.11 at 9:29 am

#95 In Garth We Trust

Technically everyone that still owns now and have not sold or try to sell in the past year is going against his words.

Well it’s “dangerous” now to hold real estate now instead. It use to be the worst case scenario and should not be part of your portfolio.

People have stated that Canada’s economy is different and it has proven so already where most other developed countries are struggling with their RE. We can still say ours “overall” without cherry picking is steady and increasing.

#98 timo on 10.05.11 at 9:31 am

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/10/04/mike-brock-the-hidden-canadian-housing-bubble/

Garth, another opinion that is rational.

Considering the average Canadian consumer has the highest debt-to-earnings ratio in the OECD (155%), there are many reasons to question the underlying assumptions of the Canadian banking system.

One also wonders if Canadian lending practices are so much better, why mortgage debt relative to income is actually higher right now than it was for Americans at the height of their bubble.

#99 Ron on 10.05.11 at 9:32 am

#88 Big Rider

Actually, rent increases are already becoming a threat to us savers.

The Ontario Liberals have removed a “freeze” on rent increases. Just got my 3.1% increase in the mail for 2012 (was 0.7% last year).

Owner is actually asking for 5.8% which is under review.

With rent hikes like this (thanks to the government), it will put even more pressure on savers to give up and buy a house.

#100 disciple on 10.05.11 at 9:34 am

#78 NormallySilentJeff… your candor is refreshing. It took you a lifetime to be at a position where you can now begin the journey to your true self. This process could take many more lifetimes, unless you realize now that our oppressors are manifestations of our own fears. Conquer the fear of your own self, and you will be free.

Remember, your intuition is your best guide. It can allow you to touch truth, where as the scientific empiricism that is our current global religion, while useful, can only describe its constituent parts, but not touch the whole. Religion also is a childish rendering of transcendent ideals. I encourage you to continue your growth towards the Mind of God.

Don’t be so silent.

#101 bigrider on 10.05.11 at 9:45 am

#94 Stevenson.

Right, so we should all rush in and buy RE after a 14 year run in the asset class and at a time when interest rates are the lowest in history and debt levels among Canadians are at their highest ever, right?

Is this what you are implying by posting that article?

#102 Sky on 10.05.11 at 10:02 am

#93 househornyhousewife – ” I have been wondering for years why these people continue to live in BC when the cost of living is impossible. Is it the weather ? the snob appeal ? the great sushi ?

***************************************

None of the above. We love danger.

Earthquakes, tsunamis, raging forest fires. What’s not to like? Plus, we’re first in line for Fukushima fallout. We’re sucking up those radioactive particles as quickly as we can so as to save the rest of the Canadian population.

When us BC canaries-in-the-coalmine start dropping, then the vultures and other RE raptors can swoop in and pick our bones clean. RE will be dirt cheap. Radioactive. But dirt cheap.

BTW- For those of you who think that rising property assessments translate into windfall govt taxes : You’re only part right. It’s local mill rates that determine your property taxes, not rising or falling property assessments. Govt cleans up in EITHER scenario.

#103 Herb on 10.05.11 at 10:22 am

#37 Eddy,

tax on tax (hidden or other) we’ve accepted sheepishly. Remember PST on top of and including GST?

What we should be in arms about is a capital gains tax on unrealized capital gains. That is what property taxes based on current value assessments in fact are.

#104 disciple on 10.05.11 at 10:27 am

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2011/mw1109.pdf

Prices are up from last year in GTA for September 2011 compared with September 2010. Sales (number of transactions for September) were up 25% comparing Septembers, but only 2.6% compared to 2010 at this time due to the paucity of listings over the summer.

Is this unusual for the number of transactions for September alone? More smart people selling while they still can?

#105 bigrider on 10.05.11 at 10:27 am

‘Experts’ say no housing bubble but not conclusively

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/investor-roundtable/video-is-this-a-housing-bubble/article2141235/?from=2191563

Experts? This is a reporter interviewing two other reporters. — Garth

#106 Daisy Mae on 10.05.11 at 10:31 am

“In BC the new home construction industry has just crumbled (thanks in part to the HST referendum)….”

BC government is dragging its feet. There’s no reason why the elimination of the HST can’t be stepped up. And if they want to see new homes sales rebound (somewhat) they’ll do just that. People are going to hold off buying, natch. I’m so angry I think twice about purchasing anything…other than food and gas. Which stands at 121.9 this morning, I see, thanks to GasBuddy.

#107 disciple on 10.05.11 at 10:35 am

CON – TROL(L)

I haven’t delved into the derivation of this word, but it should prove interesting once I do. Could it be as simple as: con=trick, and troll=hideous beast taking your money on a bridge?

#108 Dr.NickRiviera on 10.05.11 at 10:50 am

Yup, that’s why we left Vancouver three years ago (after living there for 11 years) and moved to Edmonton.

#109 The Guy on 10.05.11 at 10:56 am

Remember this post Garth where you were saying the Toronto market was crashing.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/08/23/surprise-3/

Perhaps you might want read up on seasonality since a detached house in TO is now $706.

Nowhere in that article did I say 416 prices were crashing. What I did was organize TREB’s own stats. In fact I am on record saying 416 prices will be much stickier than those in the poor 905. — Garth

#110 duesouth on 10.05.11 at 11:08 am

Great video at the end. We sold in May and now have left the sort or sunny Okanagan and are now in the Hurricane belt of PEI.

We will ride out this economy for the next while where we can rent for $1000/month – 2000 sq ft on the ocean, 4 bdrm 1 acre 7 mins from Charlottetown.

Car insurance is half for better coverage as is M/C insurance. Yeah we know about the winters no different than AB, or NWT or ONT where we have also lived, the one big thing that is making the difference for us other than the costs

….the People are awesome!

#111 disciple on 10.05.11 at 11:08 am

What type of moron would go 700K in debt for a house in Toronto? Even if I was a billionaire with this cash in my back pocket, I don’t think I would do something this stupid, no, prices are insane, and there is only one direction for them to go. I am at a loss to explain what is sustaining the transactions at this point. I suppose, it is folks upgrading to “nicer” digs? Even if it is 700K? In stinky Toronto? The place where I was born? This can’t be happening…

#112 poco on 10.05.11 at 11:19 am

#91 bigrider
BNN just now.
” fear of U.S housing drop unfounded-Royal Lepage
______________________________________________
the headline referred to a Royal Lepage statement that the fear of a Canadian housing drop similiar to the US drop is unfounded

#113 TurnerNation on 10.05.11 at 11:29 am

How about this idea as a financial rule-of-thumb: for a comfortable retirement your net worth multiplier should at least equal your age.

For example: at age 65 your net worth should be $650,000, which at 6% return would provide almost $40,000 annual gross income (plus CPP – if it’s not gutted in the future).

This means by age 55 you should be at $550,000 net worth, and at age 45 your financial milestone is $450,000 net worth, and so on.

#114 poco on 10.05.11 at 11:35 am

#98 Stevenson

People have stated that Canada’s economy is different and it has proven so already where most other developed countries are struggling with their RE. We can still say ours “overall” without cherry picking is steady and increasing.
______________________________________________
without cherry picking—that’s a great way to do it– now that you’ve been proven wrong on what you post you are going to eliminate entire cities in your analysis, even when they have seen a substantial decline in their housing market—you’ve got tunnel vision and can’t see beyond your own back yard–and you a realtor–you’re the ones who are the first to see it if you’re any good at your job

#115 jess on 10.05.11 at 11:48 am

demos
look back

the register guard eugene oregon wednesday,january 25,1989
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1310&dat=19890125&id=Ba5VAAAAIBAJ&sjid=kuEDAAAAIBAJ&pg=7065,5597564

When Mr.Ben was talking about regulation failure do you think he was thinkin’ about this one?
PE firms to bid in groups to get around the Bank Holding Co Act, government regulators also began to let them acquire controlling stakes and then give shares to fund investors to get over the 33 percent ownership limit.
=

“double cropping,”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/12/news/companies/year_of_the_vulture_sloan.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest
“I’m buying bank debt in my deal with leverage from the bank that made me that deal.”
==========
Long Term Capital Bank Japan
See Shinsei Bank
The day the Vulture Laughed
selling insolvent banks to PE firms and then having taxpayers backstop the future losses?
==============
The former Sec chairman David Ruder believed that the leveraged buyouts by Private Equity would make the USA a more productive economy
============

“We don’t want to turn the safety net into a hammock that lulls people to lives of complacencies and dependencies, into a permanent condition where they never get on their feet.” -Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin)
CNN) — That is the reality for the more than 40 million Americans who rely on food stamps. According to the Food Research and Action Center the average food stamp allotment is just $30 per week.
http://www.theindychannel.com/money/29257615/detail.html
============

#116 Northeast Canuck on 10.05.11 at 11:53 am

In 2009, after over a decade of living abroad (in the UK), my wife and I decided to return to Vancouver. Two years later, we’re back in the UK. What a terrible mistake that was. The good thing is that we got the whole ‘what if’ thing out of our system, but at an enormous cost – both in terms of the stress of it all and massive financial loss.

Without going into too much boring detail, our experience was that the place promises so much yet provides so little. Forget getting a proper job, the vast majority of work available in Vancouver at the moment is on a ‘contract’ basis (i.e. low pay, no security, no benefits). And that’s if you are lucky to get work at all. My wife did this and it was incredibly stressful not knowing if you are going to have a pay check next week – not good when you have kids like we do. In my case, I opted for self-employment and despite some success it became increasingly clear that there was no way I was ever – ever – going to earn the kind of money I needed to live there before running out of savings (which were keeping us afloat).

Luckily, I retained a lifeline to my job in the UK and the second I was asked if I wanted to return, I did. Back where I am well paid, able to provide for my family and my future (because I have so much here that we didn’t in Vancouver, like a pension, benefits, etc).

Although we have many great friends and have some great memories there, moving to Vancouver was a terrible mistake. The plight of young people in that city is going to be epic. We were lucky that we could leave – most probably will not or cannot and instead will end up living disappointing lives in some basement apartment somewhere.

Greatest place on Earth? I don’t think so.

#117 Daisy Mae on 10.05.11 at 11:57 am

Sky: “BTW- For those of you who think that rising property assessments translate into windfall govt taxes : You’re only part right. It’s local mill rates that determine your property taxes, not rising or falling property assessments. Govt cleans up in EITHER scenario.”

Right. Here in West Kelowna our assessments for 2011 went up substantially…as well as our mill rate. Double whammy. However, that 4.5% mill rate dropped back quickly to the 2% range. Probably because of outrage…

#118 VicBC on 10.05.11 at 12:01 pm

Boomers eye retirement in Victoria

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Boomers+retirement+Victoria/5502829/story.html

#119 bill on 10.05.11 at 12:05 pm

” Garth,
Your taste for photos will eventually kill your blog.
I’m out.

I eschew taste. Bye. — Garth”

and obfuscation

#120 Propaganda Phil on 10.05.11 at 12:07 pm

Here it is. The official pronouncement from the one and only Phil Soper on what is going to transpire in Canadian real estate.

A broader slowdown is expected in the months ahead but fears of a U.S.-style correction are completely unfounded,” Royal Lepage president Phil Soper said

The full article for those wanting a noon time chuckle.

http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/real-estate-shows-signs-of-slowdown

#121 Dan in Victoria on 10.05.11 at 12:08 pm

Daisy Mae @107
Most everthing is headed underground now.
Cash is the new norm.
I have never seen so many p-o tradesmen……
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
These so called leaders were given a strong message about the HST and they still don’t get it.
Oh well I’m just along for the ride.

#122 Sam on 10.05.11 at 12:15 pm

I left BC in ’04 to attend university in Ontario. After graduating, I made the move permanent because of the higher income and lower cost of living.

Glad to see others and the media acknowledging what I found out for myself.

#123 Beach Girl on 10.05.11 at 12:15 pm

#114 Tuner Nation

How about this idea as a financial rule-of-thumb: for a comfortable retirement your net worth multiplier should at least equal your age.

For example: at age 65 your net worth should be $650,000, which at 6% return would provide almost $40,000 annual gross income (plus CPP – if it’s not gutted in the future).

This means by age 55 you should be at $550,000 net worth, and at age 45 your financial milestone is $450,000 net worth, and so on.

____
Thanks for the info. I appreciate this info.

Have a nice day.

#124 Daisy Mae on 10.05.11 at 12:18 pm

Great Truths from History

1. In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm and three or more is a congress.– John Adams

2. If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.
— Mark Twain

3. Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But then I repeat myself.
— Mark Twain

4. I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.– Winston Churchill

5. A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. — George Bernard Shaw

6. A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money.– G. Gordon Liddy

7. Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
— James Bovard, Civil Libertarian (1994)

8. Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.– Douglas Casey, Classmate of Bill Clinton at Georgetown University

9. Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.– P.J. O’Rourke, Civil Libertarian

10. Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.– Frederic Bastiat, French economist(1801-1850)

11. Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize It.– Ronald Reagan (1986)

12. I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.– Will Rogers

13. If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it’s free!– P.J. O’Rourke

14. In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other. -Voltaire (1764)

15. Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you!
— Pericles (430 B.C.)

16. No man’s life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.– Mark Twain (1866)

17. Talk is cheap…except when Congress does it.
— Anonymous

18. The government is like a baby’s alimentary canal, with a happy appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other.– Ronald Reagan

19. The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.– Winston Churchill

20. The only difference between a tax man and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist Leaves the skin.
— Mark Twain

21. The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
— Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

22. There is no distinctly native American criminal class…save Congress.– Mark Twain

23. What this country needs are more unemployed politicians.– Edward Langley, Artist (1928-1995)

24. A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have.– Thomas Jefferson

25. We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.– Aesop

#125 Ned the Fed on 10.05.11 at 12:22 pm

Larry Kudlow in the National Review states the following:

Amidst the financial flight-wave to safety, with stocks plunging, gold soaring, and Treasury bond rates collapsing — and all the European banking fears which go with that — there’s an important sub-theme developing: An almost-forgotten monetary indicator, M2, which is mostly cash, demand-deposit checking accounts, savings deposits, and retail money-market funds, has been soaring.

According to the St. Louis Fed, M2 is up 24.2 percent at an annual rate over the past two months. Almost out of the blue, that comes to a near $500 billion increase. In rough terms, the M2 explosion breaks down to $165 billion in demand deposits and $335 billion in savings deposits.

What’s going on here? There’s a flight to government-guaranteed accounts. Some people believe Europeans are withdrawing from their own banking system and parking their money in the U.S. banking system, guaranteed by Uncle Sam. Kelly Evans reports in her Wall Street Journal column of a $30 billion outflow from equity mutual funds that has probably gone into cash.

#126 C on 10.05.11 at 12:27 pm

Looks like Finance Minister Jim Flaherty doesn’t see a problem with housing prices… really? like really, really?

Canada doesn’t see housing bubble, no need to cool
Reuters Canada – John McCrank, Randall Palmer – ‎27 minutes ago‎

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Vancouver housing market is attracting unusually strong demand but Canada as a whole does not face a housing bubble that requires government action, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday

#127 In Garth We Trust on 10.05.11 at 12:29 pm

#114 Turner Nation

Your net worth at set ages seems good, however, it should be liquid net worth, outside of a principal residence. If your net worth at 65 is $650,000 and it is all in a crappy bungalow in Toronto/Vancouver, where will the 6% return be coming from? Even if the insane madness of rising real estate prices were to continue, how do you translate the principal residence gains into usable income for your retirement without liquidating your house. As Garth has pointed out over and over on this blog, it is liquid net worth that you need to fund your retirement.

#128 sam.i.am on 10.05.11 at 12:36 pm

#117 northeast…

Thanks for sharing your experience. Canada is a great place to live…long as you don’t need to make any money.

#129 timo on 10.05.11 at 12:42 pm

http://michael-hudson.com/wp-content/uploads/audio/Hudson_Russia_Bonnie.mp3

“Without consumption, markets are going to shrink. Companies won’t invest, stores will close, “for rent” signs will spread on the main streets and local tax revenues will fall. Companies will lay off their employees and the economy will shrink more.”

http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/

“It is just the historically unprecedented rise of price of so many commodities all at one time. That makes you very suspicious that there might be something going on. Then, if you look at, say, the way that financial markets have changed, the way that laws have been changed that allow financial [players] to get in to commodities, you find out that there is actually an extremely close correlation in the timing of when financial markets were liberalized so that they could start speculating in commodities.”

-opens your eyes a bit more, now I need a crying towel.

#130 Junius on 10.05.11 at 12:44 pm

#98 Stevenson,

You said, “We can still say ours “overall” without cherry picking is steady and increasing.”

Say what? Not a chance. You have it backwards. You will need to cherry pick to find the bright spots.

But keep saying it like it isn’t. It is amusing.

#131 Kayak Freddy on 10.05.11 at 1:27 pm

So paint me a picture here – Banks in Europe are on the hook for billions on making loans to other countries and when Greece starts the ball rolling – it will cascade over them. So why are Canadian Banks such a opportunity to buy preferred shares.

If the markets are spooked about defaults, I am certain Canadian banks must also be holding some toxic loans…and this is not even considering the derivatives that I have been told can create massive world banking disorder.

And a final note – if homeowners start defaulting, sure CMHC is on the hook (taxpayers) but that is a big loss on revenue for the banks. People will default on credit cards first (1st wave to hit the banks bottom line) and when the dams burst – mortgage payments with those loftie interest payments come to a stop…

So tell me again – why are bank preferred’s such a great thing ??

Because you’re wrong. — Garth

#132 Devore on 10.05.11 at 1:39 pm

#40 Mike

Keep waitin Garth, I’ve given up on your predictions. Just noticed a new condo development in van sold out before completion AGAIN. Throw in the news that the cheaper huge developments are sold out or close to in the valley adds up to no crash. Time to move here, it’s obvious you carry some strange childish resentment for the wet coast.

Strange that new developments sell out in hours, but existing condos are in no man’s land.

It’s called speculation, buying now with no ongoing commitment except a low deposit, in hopes it will be worth much more when it completes in a couple of years. Certainly no one is buying 3 or more units to live in.

#133 Surrey Girl on 10.05.11 at 1:52 pm

#36 Wetcoaster BC Christy is a typo error. Now without the false god of RE to worship in our province we can all get behind the new false god BC Christ. Families first…she is going to fix everything and make it better.

#134 GTA Girl on 10.05.11 at 1:53 pm

I’m certain someone already posted this article from the TO Star on our city being the highest amount of condo towers being built in the world.

Defies logic. The answer by the cartel makes no sense when looking at economics, and resales.

I’m sorry, it’s becoming very obvious. Is the Toronto condo market a ponzi scheme? Are groups of investors pouring minimum in to start construction, borrow from the bank and sell to owned companies at a high price using money borrowed? Is it dirty money, as some had said?

I drive by these ugly glass monoliths and see empty units. Or units lived in by students w/sheets as window covers, and cheap Ikea furniture…when the unit was sold for $390k?

Now their selling 250 sqft units for $165 k. This is NOT Japan.

This all smells very bad. And makes no sense. Houses in parts of the city aren’t selling. Good homes. But someone would spend $500k for a 1 bedroom +den in 700 sqft, with 30 similar units above and below you?

Please Garth, you’re ear is to the ground. Is this a scam?

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1064773–highrises-we-re-tops-on-the-continent?bn=1

#135 GTA Girl on 10.05.11 at 2:02 pm

#64 Ted

An obvious pumper. You pulled the ad for your 350 sqft rental for $1200/mos because you got TOO many calls in 2days? Bathurst and Lakeshore? Across from Metro Housing?

So you don’t rent out your unit, but are going to buy another?

You make no sense Ted. Is RE sales down, been told to pump rentals?

Garth this is reason we have Landlord Tenant Act, because these cons would make rental rates sky high and drive Toronto into a ghost town.

$350 sqft for $1,200 and I have to walk under the Gardiner to get to work in the winter? Sorry. There are better deals than that

#136 Devore on 10.05.11 at 2:02 pm

Investment tip: go long popcorn.

#137 jess on 10.05.11 at 2:06 pm

JULY 2008 -“The Blackstone Group has reportedly earmarked $1.25 billion to partner with Bayview Financial on investments the market for subprime mortgages.
===================
FORMER PRINCIPAL OF MORTGAGE SECURITIZER CHARGED WITH FRAUD IN CONNECTION WITH MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES December 11, 2008

For six years 2001 -2006 he engaged in a scheme to defraud Bayview Financial, in which he regularly altered credit information affecting the value of more than 2,800 loans acquired for Bayview Financial’s residential mortgage securitization program. Gordon’s fraudulent scheme caused Bayview Financial to pay him more than $2.8 million in excessive and undeserved bonuses.”

The Information alleges that defendant Gordon was a principal of Bayview Financial and held the title of “Director of Residential Acquisitions.” One of Gordon’s primary duties was to negotiate the purchase of thousands of loans for Bayview Financial’s mortgage securitization program. Gordon’s incentive compensation was based on his ability to buy those loans at a low cost.
http://www.justice.gov/usao/fls/PressReleases/081211-01.html
=========
The buyout of America: how private equity will cause the next … – Google Books Resultbooks.google.ca/books?isbn=1591842859…
Josh Kosman – 2009 – Business & Economics – 280 pages
The Blackstone Group has tried taking an active role in increasing the … They would pay an average price of, say, 50 cents on the dollar, and then ask the actual homeowners, who never approved the transfers, if they would like to buy back their mortgages for, say, 75 cents on the dollar to avoid foreclosure. …

#138 wetcoaster on 10.05.11 at 2:09 pm

BMO does a poll of 800 cherry picked people asking where they will retire and 15% say Victoria like it’s some new discovery to mankind. That’s 120 people will move here and we are to believe this is a scientific study ?

Of course the Victoria rag the TC ran with the headline like ho’s in heat. Desperate times bring desperate measures when the sales suck and the prices are starting to drop with for sale signs everywhere.

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Boomers+retirement+Victoria/5502829/story.html

#139 MoneyMyHoney on 10.05.11 at 2:25 pm

Unable to learn the lessons of California, BC residents are in for a big shock.
Earthquake may be a possibility as they are sitting on a fault line.
If it house prices, it is not going to go from $1 M to 300K. The possibility of this happening is only after an earthquake of min. magnitude 6.8.
Garth, learn Geology, you may have better accuracy in your predictions. You have been shooting blanks for a long time with this correction theory.

That made entirely no sense. — Garth

#140 gladiator on 10.05.11 at 2:25 pm

@#114 Turner Nation
So, if I want to retire at 70, I must have 700k, and at 80 800k?
I plan to work for myself for as long as I can independently move my sinful body around. So, how much would I need then?

#141 Dan in Victoria on 10.05.11 at 2:29 pm

Vlad @55
Wanna have a shot at running the show on the looney left coast.
Hmmmm….. I think a good place to start is around the campfire with a cooler full of beer. Amazing what can be solved after an hour or two.
And to move onto federal issues that would require a bottle of scotch.
And a bigger fire…..
Nothings going to change for awhile we’re frogs just getting slowly boiled.

#142 new_era on 10.05.11 at 2:32 pm

squatter Nation –> watch the video –> twitter ali or Christine

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/09/real_estate/foreclosure_squatter/index.htm?iid=EL

Good for these guy. for getting free rent for up to 800 days or more. The banks loaned out these mortgages so the banks should also take the hit.

Too bad so sad. I surely hope it will wake up the banks around the world for giving out loans so cheap to people who had no way to pay off these loans and no committment necessary to get into the game.

#143 Such Stupidity Should Not Be Rewarded – “I have a relative that said that she and her husband would ‘buy their dream house’ when their east Vancouver shack, for which they paid $750K, “doubles or triples in value over the next few years on 10.05.11 at 2:33 pm

[…] “I have a relative that said that she and her husband would ‘buy their dream house’ when their east Vancouver shack, for which they paid $750K, “doubles or triples in value over the next few years”. She’s a high school teacher; he works in sales. Such stupidity should not be rewarded.” – VancouverContrarian at greaterfool.ca 4 Oct 2011 at 10:03 pm […]

#144 Stevenson on 10.05.11 at 2:40 pm

Only time will tell… and guess what prices are still up if not steady and rising.

That couple in the video is typical average household in Canada. Ever thought about the fact that why they can’t afford it and moving? Well too bad that’s how the world runs…. there is no free lunch. The free market is not a church or charity for the weak. Obviously there are buyers and therefore demand for the RE so it’s normal for the less fortunate to move away if they can’t afford it. It’s a personal choice weather you believe that the market is going to tank or make a quick few dollars while living in it.

Doesn’t seem like they wanted to move to the East, but hey for some reason smart international buyers/investors like to purchase Vancouver real estate. Canada’s not going block the door of foreign money flow to help people afford homes.

#145 triplenet on 10.05.11 at 2:55 pm

To all the real estate pumpers out there. Let us make this blog really interesting. One of you take up Garth on his challenge to buy now and let us know how it unfolds in the next year or two. Let’s put some money behind our words. Surely there must be a taker out there amongst the “real estate only goes up” crowd. Any takers?

Does this include ICI real estate?
Can you read? (about REITS)
Do you have any money?
Can you spell real estate?
Are you a pumper just looking for advice?
Do you go to Vegas alot and come back broke everytime?
You bought gold today – didn’t you?
Do you write and submit alot of stupid comment?

#146 Junius on 10.05.11 at 2:55 pm

#145 Stevenson,

You said, “Only time will tell… and guess what prices are still up if not steady and rising.”

You are really through the looking glass. Every day is opposite day with you.

Prices are falling almost everywhere. Get used to it.

#147 Junius on 10.05.11 at 3:02 pm

#145 Stevenson,

You said, “Doesn’t seem like they wanted to move to the East, but hey for some reason smart international buyers/investors like to purchase Vancouver real estate. Canada’s not going block the door of foreign money flow to help people afford homes.”

Why are international buyers automatically smart? Maybe they are stupid. I certainly think they are stupid considering how much more home you can get in the US, Spain, anywhere.

Furthermore the Federal Government has already lowered the number of immigrants coming in under the investor program so you are wrong about blocking foreigners. Obviously it is more than about houses but if you think rich immigrants will keep the market up you are wrong.

#148 TurnerNation on 10.05.11 at 3:06 pm

Ha this will complement Smoking Man’s “Basterd rumor” algo:

Patented Awarded on Automatic Trading Based on News

By Tom Steinert-Threlkeld
A Portland, Ore., developer said it received a patent on its method for achieving automatic trading of securities based on terms found in real-time news feeds.

The patent number is 8,027,893 and is titled “News Induced Automated Electronic Securities Transactions.’’ The recipient is News Technologies LLC.

The patent covers a method of automatic securities trading based on matches made to any number of pre-defined terms or phrases that are found in press releases, regulatory filings, news articles, government data reports, message boards, social media sites, blogs, and other structured or unstructured data

#149 Alister on 10.05.11 at 3:27 pm

It’s 3.25PM and I’m waiting for the high frequency traders to jam the market up 400 points like they did yesterday, at the Dow 10500 support line.

#150 vyw on 10.05.11 at 3:32 pm

The media is reporting on average prices:
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1064844–average-vancouver-bungalow-now-1m?bn=1

when they should use median prices.

Vancouver avg prices are falling but median prices are steady and rising to record price levels in many neighbourhoods in September. Also sales volumes are low – way too low to project a overall trend for the prices.

#151 Siddhartha Guatama on 10.05.11 at 3:33 pm

#101 Disciple

“Religion also is a childish rendering of transcendent ideals. I encourage you to continue your growth towards the Mind of God”.

I know this isn’t a religous forum disciple but could you clarify your above statement. I know Jung said something along the same lines, that religion was a barrier to the experience of transcendence. Are you speaking along the Jungian lines?

#152 Devore on 10.05.11 at 3:34 pm

#103 Sky

BTW- For those of you who think that rising property assessments translate into windfall govt taxes : You’re only part right. It’s local mill rates that determine your property taxes, not rising or falling property assessments. Govt cleans up in EITHER scenario.

But rising prices make it much easier to hide tax hikes. Hey look, the rate is the same, it’s your house that’s gone up in value 10%. You should be happy!

#153 Math is Fun on 10.05.11 at 3:44 pm

CHMC = Canadian Moral Hazard Corporation

#154 Ultraumatic on 10.05.11 at 3:46 pm

#59 echo on 10.05.11 at 12:23 am
Lots of people wish they had the guts he does. Admit it. lol Obviously there is no family, only friends, in New Orleans.

No, that’s not guts. That’s the time-honoured equation of Anonymity + Audience = A Whole Lot of Bullshit Lies

Yousef at #39 has got it right.

#155 TurnerNation on 10.05.11 at 4:07 pm

#141 gladiator on 10.05.11 at 2:25 pm

Maybe. Have you priced the monthy cost of a good retirement home? Shall we say $3000/mo pp if all goes well?
What about for extended care homes?

#156 Devil's Advocate on 10.05.11 at 4:17 pm

“Incredibly, though, salaries in BC suck. The median household income is less than $70,000 and the average is about $83,000. Families in Toronto make 27% more and yet pay 50% less for the average digs.” – Garth

And why do you suppose that is Garth, because we’re all idiots in BC? Quite frankly I could put you in touch with a good many that have moved here from Toronto who are dismayed why anyone could possibly want to live there over here if they had a choice.

“ Ya makes yer money where ya has ta and ya spends it where ya wants ta.” Which brings us to this next quote;

“Most importantly, there are no economic fundamentals supporting the most expensive housing market in North America. It’s all TV commercials, jingoism, best-place-on-earth propaganda, media distortion and the collective madness of the poor souls who live there. This silliness has created a city in which 72% of average pre-tax income is required to support the average home purchased with a 25% downpayment – even at historically low interest rates.” – Garth

Exactly! A great many of those who “choose” to live here have already made their money. Taxable income isn’t the whole story. A good many are drawing down on savings even if it is an annuity which at the end leaves little or nothing for the kids. They can earn their own.

The price of admission here in “Lotus Land” is higher than it is in the “Big Smoke”, for good reason. It’s got something to do with supply and demand. Clearly the demand for our dirt is higher than for yours. For those who wish to debate it all I need say is, clearly, a good number disagree with you and are willing to pay that price of admission to be HERE.

Now on the matter of;

”In BC the new home construction industry has just crumbled (thanks in part to the HST referendum), while the resource sector languishes along with the US economy.” – Garth

The new home construction industry has not crumbled. The fact is the HST made no change what-so-ever to the price of new homes up to $525,000. Over that amount it was insignificant and well above that ceiling those buyers are relatively insensitive to the relatively minor amount it added. This is the reason waterfront properties in have risen to ten times what they were 10 years ago. People with money have enough of it to spend – always have, always will regardless of the economic highs and lows. Of course these are not your readers and to those who are your readers these people are as foreign and incomprehensible as group as life on Mars. But just like Mars they do exist and are of far bigger mass than they appear from so far away.

The HST does not apply to resale housing. That’s right, regardless of price resale housing (homes previously lived in) has no HST applied to it. None, Zippo, Zilch. And resale housing is the lion’s share of the market. And of all the markets it is that lower end ($300,000 to $500,000 here in BC) which is oh so important not the high end. That low end is untouched by the HST.

Fact is what you are hearing about is bitching and complaining by the construction industry about their perception that the HST has caused that highly lucrative luxury new home market to dry up. But that is misinformed BS directed toward resurrecting what is feared might or has fellen away due to nothing more than these tougher more uncertain economic times. Believe me it would blow you away to hear of the gross profit to be had building to this segment. Why would ANYONE want to build spec. homes of under $500,000 when you can build just one custom of over a mil and take the next year off? THAT is why the construction industry is afraid of anything, percieved or real, that might take a bight out of that lucrative market.

Finally, the HST fiasco – and I will admit it was a political blunder of epic proportions – just might result in a very positive spin off as business’ scramble to make large capital expenditures retooling for the inevitable economic turnaround.

We know the economy is bound to turnaround sometime in the future. We just do not know when. But what we do know is that any business which incurs a capital expense before 18 months’ time will be able to claim back an additional 7.0% they wouldn’t and won’t otherwise under the GST/PST system. This might result in some significant economic activity from new car purchases to multimillion dollar plant expansions. Go figure eh?

Ya’ll say all ya want about our pathetic province, cry bitch complain, call us names tell us we’re lazy dope smoking hippies, we quite frankly don’t give a rat’s ass. We like it here. And we’d like you Easterners a whole lot more if you’d show us a little respect as fellow Canadians with a difference. Because you know what? As much as you may not understand it,IT IS, IN FACT, DIFFERENT HERE AND WE WOULDN’T HAVE IT ANY OTHER WAY Anyone is welcome here, but before coming understand, as it always has been and surely always will be, the price of admission is higher – but there’s a very simple reason – it’s worth it. Don’t think so? Fine then, stay where you are.

I have news for you – it’s different everywhere. When people form other locations look at BC and judge the premium too high to pay, it should make you reassess, instead of turning into a xenophobic parochial. — Garth

#157 Grimbot on 10.05.11 at 4:40 pm

No housing bubble according to Canada’s Finance Minister….

http://finance.sympatico.ca/home/contentposting_reuters/flaherty_sees_no_housing_bubble_says_no_need_to_cool/f82377d4

The fact that the Feds have to come out and state this is a true indication for how serious this issue really is and how terrified that the Harper Cons are of a national housing collapse.

#158 Im lovin it. on 10.05.11 at 4:51 pm

Garth,
I love your blog… Its always insightful followed with controvers. “Pathetcic”. I send your articles to friends whom I hate to admit are, ” HGTV horny home owners” here in Beautiful BC. Beig like majority of people in Van, I am originally from the centre of the universe. TO. Born and rasied in Etobicoke. Can’t explain the love hate relationship between the west and east. Could be hockey, since we had just as many people turning out for riots compared to the TO Summit riots. We did burn a few more cars though. Or maybe its the weather. Ya it rains for 6 months here on the Nshore, but I’d rather ski for four of them and leave my snow shovel in the garage. Did that for 20 yrs and don’t miss it a bit. Including the constant – 20 days during Jan and Feb. Funny how we Canadians love to bitch about the weather. No matter were we live..
This summer I did return to TO after 5 yrs to visit my family. I was completely taken back. Young and
Bloor looks a bit like time square. What a shame. The city looks and smells like any other American inner city.
Rob Ford, (whom I went to school with) was being severly rediculed for wanting to spend his weekend at the family cottage instead of marching through the city with the rest of TO finest rainbow banner promoters. Everyone asked me my opinion about his decision. I told them, the city I grew up in which I loved playing street hockey until dark, rode my bike from James Gardens to the beaches and went to the X donzens of times a year, has become Sodom and Gahmorra.
Much to my surprise almost all of my friends and family agreed. They just couldn’t share their honest opinions with anyone. Fear seems to have gripped most Canadians these days. Its politically incorrect to say anything honest or truthful these days. Wonder why our nation and the rest of the globe is on the brink of not just a finacial collapse but a moral one also.
Anyways, I wanted to send you a copy of an e mail I sent to friends and family in Feb of 2010 during Gordons greatest
campain to the world. Here it is.
Were Supposed to say “Welcome to the Vancouver Winter Olympics”!
They tell us to “Believe.”.. Believe me, wait to we see the final bill for all of this. Ask me the same question in 6 months.
They promised to remove the GST and know they thought of the HST.. Which of course is for you and me.
” Go Canada Go”. I mean I OWE CANADA, I OWE… more to Canada…..
Paint the town red…. Yeah “red in ink, after new dump trucks were purchased to the cost of an additional 25 million to deliver snow which melted 6 days later. Our Premier swore we would not exceed the 1 billion dollar budget (currently at 5 billion and counting). We already spent that money only on keeping out those evil terrorist. Don’t they seek refugee status here. Yeah what a threat we are….
Now I don’t dampen anyone’s “Olympic Spirit “during the athletes quest for gold, (by the way is now trading at 1100/oz) followed by the lucrative endorsements their about to receive and lets not forget the “great and wonderful” impact it would have on our cities. You will host the world.
This is what the Olympic Committee tells us.
Well I thought you should consider a few facts while your sitting on your lazy boy or lying down on the couch, with a beer (hopefully Canadian not an import), eating peanuts and pizza, yelling at TV while Team Canada’s hockey team continues to play, and of coarse give a few high five’s to everyone around you and maybe even a participate in the wave. “Shoot, Shoot, HE SCORES”. …..
Yip… It’s Canada’s game all right.
Read the paper recently. Summer games- Greece. There about default on there debt. EU to the rescue…
06 Winter games – Turin. Check Italy’s inflation rate and value of their currency lately. There right behind Greece.
Beijing- 30 billion and counting. The east is supposed to lead the way economically.
What a game it will be. What a game to be remembered. It is a game after all isn’t it..
A very expensive game. Did you ever consider how this is about to affect your standard of living in BC.
Well maybe real estate will continue to go higher. So will your assessments and so will your taxes. Or maybe it won’t
But I do know this; its going to cost more money to live here than it did before we hosted the world.
So go Canada go ! They better win the gold in hockey. I don’t mean the woman either. They already did that. What else would you expect from a Country who’s national sport is hockey.
Should they only win the silver, they still go back to their miserable average salary of 1 mill a year. Such a disappointment if this should happen. Then we would have to listen to the Americans also.
You and I, well we are still very fortunate and blessed in relation to other nations. How come no one talks about Haiti anymore.
There is a fine line between democracy, free enterprise and enslavement to debt. Have you seen Canada’s national compounding debt clock.
Some good news. According to the G20 Nations, were are in a good position. Did you hear “The recession is over”.
Do you “Believe” every thing you hear. I prefer to see the accounting.
Please feel free to share your comments with me and maybe some flag waving.
For all those folks wanting to visit BC this winter to ski.. They forgot to add one letter “L” to BC…
Bring
Lots of
Cash…..
Peace,
Marcello

#159 TurnerNation on 10.05.11 at 4:57 pm

If you click on View Floorplan for all of these BC models, all are price reduced by about 25k…

In the “BPOE”??

http://www.fintreypark.com/your-new-home

#160 Derek R on 10.05.11 at 5:16 pm

#75 Calgary Bubble on 10.05.11 at 2:21 am wrote:
This is what you call a multimillion dollar view in Calgary, sure its nice but this is not Vancouver yet.

Looks like someone is trying to cash in for retirement before its too late;) I’m curious how this property will fare before shit hits the fan in Calgary.

I’ll consider renting that when they can’t get their price!

#161 5moking Man on 10.05.11 at 5:22 pm

Turnernation. Talk about luck re that pattent

Ultamatic grow up of cource I’m a master bull shitter -i even did a piece on it the art of lying. But this is it. You don’t know what I’m lying about and what – tell the truth about. Its anyones guess

And )ousef. You must be a teacher the only enimies I have on here. But dude. Dislexia. Is spelled. Dyslexia. And as far as being you bitch. Bahahahaha

Perhaps you two can ad some content a prediction or two but your type are to frightend

#162 Stevenson on 10.05.11 at 5:27 pm

#148 Junius

You are obviously blinded by your confirmation bias. You are very selective when it comes down to the articles that you read and choose as support.

Rich immigrants or just international investors in general, as they may not be only immigrants who choose to unload their cash here are the majority that boost real estate prices in Vancouver. Do you think their financial wealth came from luck and it drops from of the sky? They ain’t stupid. Also just because of low interest rates doesn’t mean the locals can afford those prices or that banks would lend to them.

Now back to the immigrants issue. The Federal government has lowered the “applicants” to enter under the investor program. This is because they are backed up and need to catch up. Canadian workers are slow, but workers are not exactly much quicker. The government did not change the entries.

Dude there are a 1 million people in line to get into Canada. Why not the US, Spain, anywhere else? It’s cheaper for sure. Why even Vancouver when its so expensive? You got a point there think about it.

#163 ballingsford on 10.05.11 at 5:27 pm

The IMF doesn’t like the amount of debt Canadian’s hold.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/canadians-household-debt-raises-eyebrows-at-imf/article2191848/

What is wrong with people???!!!

#164 timo on 10.05.11 at 5:42 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4DceU-6ALc

30 billion square feet of office space being built. That works out to a 5 foot by 5 foot office cubical per citizen in China.

what a make work project. lol

#165 debtified on 10.05.11 at 5:49 pm

Now the IMF is talking about our debt level:

Globe Investor: Canadians’ household debt raises eyebrows at IMF http://tgam.ca/Cxs1 Via

#166 Devil's Advocate on 10.05.11 at 6:03 pm

I have news for you – it’s different everywhere. When people from other locations look at BC and judge the premium too high to pay, it should make you reassess, instead of turning into a xenophobic parochial. — Garth

No narrow mindedness Garth. How many times have places like BC in general or Vancouver specific been blasted on this Blog as naïve to think “It’s different here.”? Plenty.

Yes, you are correct “it’s different everywhere”. And in saying that you would be a hypocrite not to agree with my summary that so too is it different here, in BC, a fact I am only too happy to report.

Unless of course, you were being sarcastic when you said that? ;-)

Accuse me of being a xenophobic parochial? I consider it being – pretty damned proud and blessed to have been born in and of this Province. It is a damned nice place to be, IF you can find a way to enjoy it. By finding a way to enjoy it I am not referring to the cost of living here nearly so much as the attitude. But then with the right attitude you can pretty much enjoy any thing or place can’t you.

#167 BPOE on 10.05.11 at 6:03 pm

HOUSING PRICES EXPLODE UPWARDS as Eurozone shattered
A housing survey by Royal LePage indicates prices in West Vancouver, B.C., are rising faster than any other major city in Canada — and offshore money from Asia is fuelling the rise.
************************************
Royal LePage says properties in West Vancouver posted the most massive gains over the third quarter, with the price of a detached bungalow climbing about 25 per cent since this time last year to an average price of $1.2 million.

#168 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.05.11 at 6:04 pm


Monty Python Reunion 4:23 clip. Damn funny stuff, all at the expense of the non-existent establishment. Further. Cabbage Marmalade and Pickled Potties.
*
#95 In Garth We Trust — “Any takers?” — No thanks. I would prefer to exchange my home for a condo, no money involved except for the costs of closing down and starting up. Exchange is no robbery, and if it is for the benefit of all, that is my choice.

#117 Northeast Canuck — “What a terrible mistake that was.”

There are no mistakes in life, only experiences. It doesn’t matter whether the experiences are positive or negative, they’re simply experiences.

#125 Daisy Mae — “25. We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.– Aesop”

Great post. Who is in charge of the floundering ship SS Canada now? Yep, you got it!

#142 Dan in Victoria — “Nothings going to change for awhile we’re frogs just getting slowly boiled.”

With sauteed onions, garlic, mushrooms and a few steaks thrown in!

#163 timo — Dilbert would love that!
*
0:45 clip Message from TPTB, Enjoy! 212% rise in US job cuts; Bloomberg The elite don’t like protests.

Libya Turning the tables in Sirte.

#169 Devil's Advocate on 10.05.11 at 6:06 pm

… And with the right attitude you can get wherever it is you want to be, where ever that might be.

#170 bigrider on 10.05.11 at 6:06 pm

Garth do you have a granite and stainless steel kitchen with french cabinetry, heated floors to warm your feet and heat lamps above your head in the bathroom to keep your ass warm when you come out of the shower?

Dark chocolate maple hardwood strip flooring or did you go oak ?

No, that’s my Italian neighbour. — Garth

#171 BPOE on 10.05.11 at 6:07 pm

Don’t tell the American or Junius these stories. They hate the truth.
East Van on 10.04.11 at 9:55 pm
I Bought Vancouver condo 2001, paid the mortgage in full in 2009, and sold in 2010 at almost triple the purchase price. I am now paying $1500 rent for a lesser place. My condo money is withering away in “balanced” investments, and real estate prices are continuing to rise. I am beginning to regret selling my home.

So buy one. Tell us how it works out. — Garth
.

#172 syd on 10.05.11 at 6:07 pm

Garth,

Did you check out today’s news on housing..? what ever you are smoking must be good.. –ummmmmm

Was that the ‘news’ from Royal LePage? Where you work? — Garth

#173 Smoking Man on 10.05.11 at 6:11 pm

Ok Fans

The Smoking Man finaly exposes himself

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.com/

#174 dd on 10.05.11 at 6:17 pm

Yes, just like vancouver island. Where house prices are too high and there are only too many min wage jobs.

#175 Devil's Advocate on 10.05.11 at 6:30 pm

But I get it Garth, you liked me a lot better about 2 and 3 years ago when I agreed with you on so much more. ;-)

Not that you are entirely wrong, just more xenophobically parochial about it like I me but in a different, if not opposite, direction, neither of us nearly so far of center as so many here believe us to be. ;-)

#176 Westernman on 10.05.11 at 6:32 pm

Hey bystander
If you are that easily offended you better go join a church group and take up knitting. This is a man’s world and if you can’t find a pair why don’t you just check out and don’t bother us men any more… BOY.

#177 MortgageMark on 10.05.11 at 6:42 pm

Just checked MLS stats last 3 Days West side of Vancouver = 176 New Listings, 6 Back on the Market, 84 Price changes & 75 Sold. Went back 14 days & it seemed to poke a few holes in ur numbers for Sept? Where did ya get ur stats. This is off MLXchange? PS- Only searched detached, wanted to make sure we got apps 2 apps :)

Vancouver Real Estate Board. Say, did you run out of virgins? — Garth

#178 Cato on 10.05.11 at 6:45 pm

BC’s place in the coming spectacle is well deserved. I live in BC for the scenery but I’d never invest here and I’m not alone. The level of soft corruption out here would make a greek blush. Gov’t spending on all levels has far outpaced population growth & inflation, all thanks to the housing bubble. I highly doubt the province will be able to adjust the coming reality it faces.

The level of arrogance out here is inexplicable. I constantly feel the need to apologize to foreign friends who always get a puzzled look on their face when first greeted by the best place on earth verbage gov’t has plastered at every opportunity. Its like having to apologize to guests for antics of your moronic brother in law that just can’t help offending others with idiotic comments.

The arrogant twits who make up so many in this province have the patience & foresight of a 2 year old. When crisis hits they’ll be looking to blame everybody else for their own stupidity. Just thinking of the disgust & anger about to be hurled at our elected officials brings a smile to my face.

#179 Peakoilist on 10.05.11 at 6:55 pm

#159 Im lovin it. on 10.05.11 at 4:51 pm
that posting was the biggest load of crappola that I’ve seen here in a very long time. I threw up in my mouth about a 1/3 way through and had to stop.

#180 ballingsford on 10.05.11 at 7:02 pm

From what I’ve observed lately from society it is this. I used to think it was the woman who was married or common-law who wore the pants in the family and convinced their husband to buy a home. But lately, I’ve seen some guys convincing their wives that now is the time to buy.

Here are my thoughts from my observations. The women are wearing the pants and the guys are going along with it and getting the shaft. What’s up with that?!?!?!?

It’s clearly obvious that both minds need to work as one and look at what’s taking place these days.

Men, grow a set if you are being manhandled!

#181 betamax on 10.05.11 at 7:07 pm

#168 Smoking Man

#170 Devil’s Advocate

Delusions of mediocrity. No one gives a rats.

#182 timo on 10.05.11 at 7:07 pm

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/10/felix-zulauf-expect-more-market-turmoil-than-in-2008/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=felix-zulauf-expect-more-market-turmoil-than-in-2008

another good video if your interested.

“Cutting deficits into the teeth of recession when the private sector is highly indebted INCREASES deficits by inducing crisis that necessitate bailouts and killing demand, causing tax receipts to plunge. Moreover, he says, monetary policy is largely impotent due to the deleveraging attendant with crisis situations due to a high private sector debts.”

#183 Popeye the sailor man on 10.05.11 at 7:12 pm

#71 Rod on 10.05.11 at 1:48 am
Once again “BC” is translated “Lower Mainland”. Prince George is still very affordable housing that has never “over corrected itself”. Great place to invest.
Everything is relative, I too lived in PG. My parents bought a large house for $90,000 about $25,000 under the original list price during a PG downturn in about 1983 or so, and sold 18 years later for 170,000 after 7 months and 2-3 price drops from the $220,000 asking price in 2001-02.
Sounds good but not when you consider they put in over 50,000 in renos over the 18years. If they paid full price just before the PG down turn they would of gained nothing. PG has ups and downs also, so if forestry, mills and mines are weak so is PG.

Saying that buying PG when the market is weak you can get a good deal and not have to pay 70% of your income for shelter like Vancouver.

I liked PG had lots of fun, Army Cadets was awesome, lakes were great, and CNC college got me the leg up after having to much fun at PGSS. If you have a good secure job you can easily raise a family there, thou it can be a tough town if your unemployed.

#184 sam.i.am on 10.05.11 at 7:13 pm

#174 SM

Those are some mighty fine ladies. Diversification rules!

#185 Junius on 10.05.11 at 7:50 pm

#163 Stevenson,

Blinded by confirmation bias? That would be you pal. Post after post.

Your comment on the Immigration policy is just flat out silly. 700 applicants means 700 immigrants. Not to mention the moratorium on the “Entrepreneur class”.

#186 McLovin on 10.05.11 at 8:04 pm

Devil’s Advocate, I thought you were leaving for good. Then leaving for good. Then leaving for a while. Then leaving for at least “several months”. Then leaving for an period of time but coming back occassionally but we were not to expect you to post to much as you had better things to do than hang out with us miserable peeople. Then leaving till the new year. Then leaving for good again.

Can you go back to the 1st one?

#187 Smoking Man on 10.05.11 at 8:15 pm

RIP Steve Jobs to bad you can’t take it with you

#188 Timing is Everything on 10.05.11 at 8:17 pm

All in the family (HGTV)….Big News in Chatham, I guess.

http://www.chathamdailynews.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3322496

#189 Timing is Everything on 10.05.11 at 8:19 pm

#174 Smoking Man

Which one R U?

#190 Smoking Man on 10.05.11 at 8:19 pm

#182 betamax on 10.05.11
Delusions of mediocrity. No one gives a rats.

Is that what it’s called miss took the first word for delisious.

#191 Trev16 on 10.05.11 at 8:23 pm

Garth…..you sure seem bitter since your prediction hasn’t come true yet. Yes all markets correct as will the Lower Mainland. The sad thing is that you focus so much on Toronto and Vancouver real estate….when really the huge fireworks will start to go off in a matter of weeks when Greece Defaults and then the Euro.

This will start a panic in Wall Street and who knows which bank will go down in the US…JP Morgan???…..how long before the Canadian banks go down because of their ties to the US.

This is not going to end well….oh and I really like the story on Drudge that shows the US debt levels to GDP is 98%. Even the monopoly money of the Fed won’t be able to save this disaster.

Cheers,

Trev16

Bitter? Hardly. But you sure amuse me. — Garth

#192 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.05.11 at 8:37 pm


And now . . . a description on today’s life lesson:

“I’ve learned that pleasing everyone is impossible,

but pissing everyone off is a piece of cake.”

Don’t take life too seriously — No one makes it out alive anyway.

Thank you!
*
Little Timmy’s Magical Mystery Tour and Geithner lying again; 2:29 clip BoA refuses to let customers close their accounts; CNN is m$m, so smoke weed and prove them right; Bernanke raping middle class; Metaphor Language of violence; 2:44 clip Play nice, now; Libya US can’t bail out Eurozone, as war costs are too high. Soros and Obama are loving it; Yelping See previous story. America has spent like there’s no tomorrow and is blaming others for their own shortcomings.

Chicago’s 1% “Yeah, and I’ll bet they laughed at “Let them eat cake” too!” wrh.com; Franc – Greece Shape up or ship out! Currency Wars Deutschemark could be rebirthing; Not Anti-capitalist to protest Wall St.; Prevailing Debate “Left unsaid; the Great Global Revolt of 2012!” wrh.com; Economy “It is easy to imagine the gasps of horror rising from the White House…”; David Cameron About as useful as pissing in the wind; Paying the price That’s what will happen on Wall St.

Palestine Easy to tell which side Uncle Sam is on; 12:10 clip Some naughty lingo. Vancouver protesters are mad at Big Dick Cheney; Music downloading still okay; Russia and China help Syria by stuffing UN; Journalism Tough being a good reporter. Just ask Woodward and Bernstein; Gibson Guitars Something fishy going on; Bitcoin Solving a mystery;Going Postal in Asia.

#193 Onemorething on 10.05.11 at 8:43 pm

I actually love BC, but not people like you. — Garth

Exactly, and there’s the rub, there’s millions of them tooling around BC!

#194 Al on 10.05.11 at 8:49 pm

Here is what Mark Faber says now; The price of copper is signaling a very serious slowdown (if not complete collapse) in China. This is what is really behind the move down in all commodities. A hard landing in China would be devastating for the global economy. The Shanghai composite is making new lows along with copper, which is very bearish. Also stay away from the Australian and Canadian currencies. If China crashes, these markets will get massacred. – in Seeking Alpha, from the Gloom, Boom & Doom Newsletter

#195 MarcFromOttawa on 10.05.11 at 9:15 pm

RIP Steve Jobs.

#196 jess on 10.05.11 at 9:19 pm

“Vultures’ Picnic,”

Wednesday 5 October 2011
by: Greg Palast, Truthout | Investigative Report

Ken Langone
Koch Brothers,
Charles and David
Three of these things all go together…..
===================================

top 15 foreign holdings of u.s. corporate assets include eight tax haven countries
equitites and corporate debt as of june 30, 2010
B10 (14 of 28)

1United Kingdom $716 billion
2 Cayman Islands $675 billion
3 Luxembourg $556 billion
4 Japan $423 billion
5 Canada $390 billion
6 Ireland $306 billion
7 Switzerland $296 billion
8 Netherlands $214 billion
9 France $176 billion
10 Bermuda $164 billion
11 China $143 billion
12 Hong Kong $137 billion
13 Germany $130 billion
14 Singapore $126 billion
15 Norway $116 billion

singapore ,hong kong ,bermuda, netherlands , switzerland, ireland ,luxembourg cayman islands are tax haven country, according to U.S. Government Accountability Office definition.

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

http://taxjustice.blogspot.com/
http://www.financialsecrecyindex.com/

#197 Popeye the sailor man on 10.05.11 at 9:20 pm

187 McLovin on 10.05.11 at 8:04 pm
“Devil’s Advocate, I thought you were leaving for good. ”

I remember that also, but I skip most of DA’s posts anyway too long winded, and full of Sh——–T.

#198 scib on 10.05.11 at 9:37 pm

Much of the money coming into the lower mainland is from Chinese criminals from the communist party. Not very many businessmen who are making good will leave their country with whatever they can smuggle out.
The mild mannered Chinese man next door is more than likely a senior bureaucrat who made good selling land he procured from a peasant and sold to a company seeking factory space or high rise building space for a large under the table fee. Even the families of these honest looking crooks dont know where their daddy got his money. These scammers know the gigs up soon and they better get out with whatever they can before they get caught.
You can identiify them by asking them what they did in China. They will give you a vague story about electonics engineering that you dont know anything about and that will be the end of the questioning. Meanwhile my university educated kids can’t afford a home in Vancouver. They have suckered two countries in one.

#199 Smoking Man on 10.05.11 at 9:40 pm

190 Timing is Everything on 10.05.11 at 8:19 pm

Wow now thats what I call critical thinking, very good.

Note to Self do not play poker against Timing is Everything.

#200 penpal on 10.05.11 at 9:45 pm

@ # 187 McLovin

Awesome post.

Great moniker as well.

#201 Jeannie on 10.05.11 at 9:53 pm

Steve Jobs. There will be many eloquent tributes to this American genius in the days to come. On a personal level I’m grateful for my wonderful Apple computer that keeps me connected to family and friends around the world.
R.I.P. Steve Jobs, a great American visionary.. and thank you.

#202 The thing in the basement on 10.05.11 at 10:07 pm

175 dd – prices look close to national average

http://www.vireb.com/assets/images/pdf/09-sep_11_sales_summary.pdf

#203 Ryan on 10.05.11 at 10:19 pm

I want to see if I can get Garth and the other reader’s opinions on this. I own a condo in downtown Ottawa which I bought two years ago. It has appreciated somewhat but probably not more than 10-15% over those 2 years. Should I sell? I agree that there is going to be a housing crash nationwide and that prices are way too high but are Ottawa prices really that bad? Median family income is about $90k in Ottawa and the average house price is around $330k so it’s at about a 3.5 multiple. Is that bad enough to sell? I believe the historical average is around 3.

#204 Such Stupidity Should Not Be Rewarded – “I have a relative that said that she and her husband would ‘buy their dream house’ when their east Vancouver shack, for which they paid $750K, “doubles or triples in value over the next few years”.” on 10.05.11 at 10:41 pm

[…] “I have a relative that said that she and her husband would ‘buy their dream house’ when their east Vancouver shack, for which they paid $750K, “doubles or triples in value over the next few years”. She’s a high school teacher; he works in sales. Such stupidity should not be rewarded.” – VancouverContrarian at greaterfool.ca 4 Oct 2011 at 10:03 pm […]

#205 Bobby on 10.06.11 at 2:51 am

If the vast majority of retirees want to move to Victoria, someone should tell the owners of the empty open houses I visited on the weekend. The realtors seemed pretty forlorn given the houses had all been on the market for awhile.
I sometimes think the so called experts should get out more, they are starting to believe their own hype.